The politics of participation in watershed modeling.

PubMed

Korfmacher, K S

2001-02-01

While researchers and decision-makers increasingly recognize the importance of public participation in environmental decision-making, there is less agreement about how to involve the public. One of the most controversial issues is how to involve citizens in producing scientific information. Although this question is relevant to many areas of environmental policy, it has come to the fore in watershed management. Increasingly, the public is becoming involved in the sophisticated computer modeling efforts that have been developed to inform watershed management decisions. These models typically have been treated as technical inputs to the policy process. However, model-building itself involves numerous assumptions, judgments, and decisions that are relevant to the public. This paper examines the politics of public involvement in watershed modeling efforts and proposes five guidelines for good practice for such efforts. Using these guidelines, I analyze four cases in which different approaches to public involvement in the modeling process have been attempted and make recommendations for future efforts to involve communities in watershed modeling. Copyright 2001 Springer-Verlag

An RCT of an Evidence-Based Practice Teaching Model with the Field Instructor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tennille, Julie Anne

2013-01-01

Problem: Equipping current and future social work practitioners with skills to deliver evidence-based practice (EBP) has remained an elusive prospect since synchronized efforts with field instructors have not been a consistent part of dissemination and implementation efforts. Recognizing the highly influential position of field instructors, this…

Status Report for the Hypervelocity Free-Flight Aerodynamic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornelison, Charles J.; Arnold, James O. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The Hypervelocity Free-Flight Aerodynamic Facility, located at Ames Research Center, is NASA's only aeroballistic facility. During 1997, its model imaging and time history recording systems were the focus of a major refurbishment effort. Specifically the model detection, spark gap (light source); Kerr cell (high speed shuttering); and interval timer sub-systems were inspected, repaired, modified or replaced as required. These refurbishment efforts have fully restored the HFFAF's capabilities to a much better condition, comparable to what it was 15 years ago. Details of this refurbishment effort along with a brief discussion of future upgrade plans are presented.

Integrated modeling of protein-coding genes in the Manduca sexta genome using RNA-Seq data from the biochemical model insect

PubMed Central

Cao, Xiaolong; Jiang, Haobo

2015-01-01

The genome sequence of Manduca sexta was recently determined using 454 technology. Cufflinks and MAKER2 were used to establish gene models in the genome assembly based on the RNA-Seq data and other species' sequences. Aided by the extensive RNA-Seq data from 50 tissue samples at various life stages, annotators over the world (including the present authors) have manually confirmed and improved a small percentage of the models after spending months of effort. While such collaborative efforts are highly commendable, many of the predicted genes still have problems which may hamper future research on this insect species. As a biochemical model representing lepidopteran pests, M. sexta has been used extensively to study insect physiological processes for over five decades. In this work, we assembled Manduca datasets Cufflinks 3.0, Trinity 4.0, and Oases 4.0 to assist the manual annotation efforts and development of Official Gene Set (OGS) 2.0. To further improve annotation quality, we developed methods to evaluate gene models in the MAKER2, Cufflinks, Oases and Trinity assemblies and selected the best ones to constitute MCOT 1.0 after thorough crosschecking. MCOT 1.0 has 18,089 genes encoding 31,666 proteins: 32.8% match OGS 2.0 models perfectly or near perfectly, 11,747 differ considerably, and 29.5% are absent in OGS 2.0. Future automation of this process is anticipated to greatly reduce human efforts in generating comprehensive, reliable models of structural genes in other genome projects where extensive RNA-Seq data are available. PMID:25612938

Crops In Silico: Generating Virtual Crops Using an Integrative and Multi-scale Modeling Platform.

PubMed

Marshall-Colon, Amy; Long, Stephen P; Allen, Douglas K; Allen, Gabrielle; Beard, Daniel A; Benes, Bedrich; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Christensen, A J; Cox, Donna J; Hart, John C; Hirst, Peter M; Kannan, Kavya; Katz, Daniel S; Lynch, Jonathan P; Millar, Andrew J; Panneerselvam, Balaji; Price, Nathan D; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Raila, David; Shekar, Rachel G; Shrivastava, Stuti; Shukla, Diwakar; Srinivasan, Venkatraman; Stitt, Mark; Turk, Matthew J; Voit, Eberhard O; Wang, Yu; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Xin-Guang

2017-01-01

Multi-scale models can facilitate whole plant simulations by linking gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, and growth. Whole plant models can be further integrated with ecosystem, weather, and climate models to predict how various interactions respond to environmental perturbations. These models have the potential to fill in missing mechanistic details and generate new hypotheses to prioritize directed engineering efforts. Outcomes will potentially accelerate improvement of crop yield, sustainability, and increase future food security. It is time for a paradigm shift in plant modeling, from largely isolated efforts to a connected community that takes advantage of advances in high performance computing and mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment are urgently needed. The purpose of this perspective is to introduce Crops in silico (cropsinsilico.org), an integrative and multi-scale modeling platform, as one solution that combines isolated modeling efforts toward the generation of virtual crops, which is open and accessible to the entire plant biology community. The major challenges involved both in the development and deployment of a shared, multi-scale modeling platform, which are summarized in this prospectus, were recently identified during the first Crops in silico Symposium and Workshop.

Crops In Silico: Generating Virtual Crops Using an Integrative and Multi-scale Modeling Platform

PubMed Central

Marshall-Colon, Amy; Long, Stephen P.; Allen, Douglas K.; Allen, Gabrielle; Beard, Daniel A.; Benes, Bedrich; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Christensen, A. J.; Cox, Donna J.; Hart, John C.; Hirst, Peter M.; Kannan, Kavya; Katz, Daniel S.; Lynch, Jonathan P.; Millar, Andrew J.; Panneerselvam, Balaji; Price, Nathan D.; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Raila, David; Shekar, Rachel G.; Shrivastava, Stuti; Shukla, Diwakar; Srinivasan, Venkatraman; Stitt, Mark; Turk, Matthew J.; Voit, Eberhard O.; Wang, Yu; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Xin-Guang

2017-01-01

Multi-scale models can facilitate whole plant simulations by linking gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, and growth. Whole plant models can be further integrated with ecosystem, weather, and climate models to predict how various interactions respond to environmental perturbations. These models have the potential to fill in missing mechanistic details and generate new hypotheses to prioritize directed engineering efforts. Outcomes will potentially accelerate improvement of crop yield, sustainability, and increase future food security. It is time for a paradigm shift in plant modeling, from largely isolated efforts to a connected community that takes advantage of advances in high performance computing and mechanistic understanding of plant processes. Tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment are urgently needed. The purpose of this perspective is to introduce Crops in silico (cropsinsilico.org), an integrative and multi-scale modeling platform, as one solution that combines isolated modeling efforts toward the generation of virtual crops, which is open and accessible to the entire plant biology community. The major challenges involved both in the development and deployment of a shared, multi-scale modeling platform, which are summarized in this prospectus, were recently identified during the first Crops in silico Symposium and Workshop. PMID:28555150

Quantifying and Disaggregating Consumer Purchasing Behavior for Energy Systems Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Consumer behaviors such as energy conservation, adoption of more efficient technologies, and fuel switching represent significant potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. Current efforts to model future energy outcomes have tended to use simplified economic assumptions ...

Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rainwater, K.; Stovall, J.; Frailey, S.; Urban, L.

2005-01-01

Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050. Copyright ?? 2005 National Ground Water Association.

Future directions for LDEF ionizing radiation modeling and assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1993-01-01

A calculational program utilizing data from radiation dosimetry measurements aboard the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite to reduce the uncertainties in current models defining the ionizing radiation environment is in progress. Most of the effort to date has been on using LDEF radiation dose measurements to evaluate models defining the geomagnetically trapped radiation, which has provided results applicable to radiation design assessments being performed for Space Station Freedom. Plans for future data comparisons, model evaluations, and assessments using additional LDEF data sets (LET spectra, induced radioactivity, and particle spectra) are discussed.

Success in Kashmir: a positive trend in civil-military integration during humanitarian assistance operations.

PubMed

Thompson, Wiley C

2010-01-01

The modern cast of disaster relief actors includes host nations, non-governmental organisations, private volunteer organisations, military organisations and others. Each group, civilian or military, has valuable skills and experiences critical to disaster relief work. The goal of this paper is to supplement the study of civil-military relief efforts with contemporary anecdotal experience. The paper examines the interaction between US military forces and other disaster relief actors during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake relief effort. The author uses direct observations made while working in Pakistan to contrast the relationships and activities from that effort with other accounts in prevailing scholarly disaster literature and military doctrine. Finally, this paper suggests that the Kashmir model of integration, coordination and transparency of intent creates a framework in which future humanitarian assistance operations could be successfully executed. Recommendations to improve civil-military interaction in future relief efforts will also be addressed.

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

Modeling and Evaluating Pilot Performance in NextGen: Review of and Recommendations Regarding Pilot Modeling Efforts, Architectures, and Validation Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, Christopher; Sebok, Angelia; Keller, John; Peters, Steve; Small, Ronald; Hutchins, Shaun; Algarin, Liana; Gore, Brian Francis; Hooey, Becky Lee; Foyle, David C.

2013-01-01

NextGen operations are associated with a variety of changes to the national airspace system (NAS) including changes to the allocation of roles and responsibilities among operators and automation, the use of new technologies and automation, additional information presented on the flight deck, and the entire concept of operations (ConOps). In the transition to NextGen airspace, aviation and air operations designers need to consider the implications of design or system changes on human performance and the potential for error. To ensure continued safety of the NAS, it will be necessary for researchers to evaluate design concepts and potential NextGen scenarios well before implementation. One approach for such evaluations is through human performance modeling. Human performance models (HPMs) provide effective tools for predicting and evaluating operator performance in systems. HPMs offer significant advantages over empirical, human-in-the-loop testing in that (1) they allow detailed analyses of systems that have not yet been built, (2) they offer great flexibility for extensive data collection, (3) they do not require experimental participants, and thus can offer cost and time savings. HPMs differ in their ability to predict performance and safety with NextGen procedures, equipment and ConOps. Models also vary in terms of how they approach human performance (e.g., some focus on cognitive processing, others focus on discrete tasks performed by a human, while others consider perceptual processes), and in terms of their associated validation efforts. The objectives of this research effort were to support the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in identifying HPMs that are appropriate for predicting pilot performance in NextGen operations, to provide guidance on how to evaluate the quality of different models, and to identify gaps in pilot performance modeling research, that could guide future research opportunities. This research effort is intended to help the FAA evaluate pilot modeling efforts and select the appropriate tools for future modeling efforts to predict pilot performance in NextGen operations.

Current Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Michael; Barnhardt, Michael; Hughes, Monica

2017-01-01

This talk will provide an overview of investments in the Entry Systems Modeling project, along with some context of where the effort sits in the overall Space Technology EDL Portfolio. Technical highlights, particularly with referent to work on Ablation Modeling, will be given. Future directions will be discussed.

The potential impacts of development on wildlands in El Dorado County, California

Treesearch

Shawn C. Saving; Gregory B. Greenwood

2002-01-01

We modeled future development in rapidly urbanizing El Dorado County, California, to assess ecological impacts of expanding urbanization and effectiveness of standard policy mitigation efforts. Using raster land cover data and county parcel data, we constructed a footprint of current development and simulated future development using a modified stochastic flood-fill...

Nonlinear Constitutive Relations for High Temperature Application, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications were discussed. The state of the art in nonlinear constitutive modeling of high temperature materials was reviewed and the need for future research and development efforts in this area was identified. Considerable research efforts are urgently needed in the development of nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications prompted by recent advances in high temperature materials technology and new demands on material and component performance. Topics discussed include: constitutive modeling, numerical methods, material testing, and structural applications.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Integrated modeling of protein-coding genes in the Manduca sexta genome using RNA-Seq data from the biochemical model insect.

PubMed

Cao, Xiaolong; Jiang, Haobo

2015-07-01

The genome sequence of Manduca sexta was recently determined using 454 technology. Cufflinks and MAKER2 were used to establish gene models in the genome assembly based on the RNA-Seq data and other species' sequences. Aided by the extensive RNA-Seq data from 50 tissue samples at various life stages, annotators over the world (including the present authors) have manually confirmed and improved a small percentage of the models after spending months of effort. While such collaborative efforts are highly commendable, many of the predicted genes still have problems which may hamper future research on this insect species. As a biochemical model representing lepidopteran pests, M. sexta has been used extensively to study insect physiological processes for over five decades. In this work, we assembled Manduca datasets Cufflinks 3.0, Trinity 4.0, and Oases 4.0 to assist the manual annotation efforts and development of Official Gene Set (OGS) 2.0. To further improve annotation quality, we developed methods to evaluate gene models in the MAKER2, Cufflinks, Oases and Trinity assemblies and selected the best ones to constitute MCOT 1.0 after thorough crosschecking. MCOT 1.0 has 18,089 genes encoding 31,666 proteins: 32.8% match OGS 2.0 models perfectly or near perfectly, 11,747 differ considerably, and 29.5% are absent in OGS 2.0. Future automation of this process is anticipated to greatly reduce human efforts in generating comprehensive, reliable models of structural genes in other genome projects where extensive RNA-Seq data are available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer simulation modeling of recreation use: Current status, case studies, and future directions

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2005-01-01

This report compiles information about recent progress in the application of computer simulation modeling to planning and management of recreation use, particularly in parks and wilderness. Early modeling efforts are described in a chapter that provides an historical perspective. Another chapter provides an overview of modeling options, common data input requirements,...

Modeling Fecundity in Birds: Conceptual Overview, Current Models, and Considerations for Future Developments

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding fecundity is fundamental to understanding fitness, population dynamics, conservation, ecological risk, and management issues of birds. For all the efforts placed in measuring fecundity or its surrogates over the past century of avian research, it is still poorly me...

Future Defence Budget Constraints: Challenges and Opportunities (Contraintes futures sur les budgets de defense: Defis et opportunites)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

collaborative effort is addressed by six Technical Panels who manage a wide range of scientific research activities, a Group specialising in modelling and...HFM Human Factors and Medicine Panel • IST Information Systems Technology Panel • NMSG NATO Modelling and Simulation Group • SAS System Analysis...and Studies Panel • SCI Systems Concepts and Integration Panel • SET Sensors and Electronics Technology Panel These Panels and Group are the

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Jingqiu; Carlton, Annmarie; Cohen, Ronald C.; Brune, William H.; Brown, Steven S.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Pye, Havala O. T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Xu, Lu; McNeill, V. Faye; Tsigaridis, Kostas; McDonald, Brian C.; Warneke, Carsten; Guenther, Alex; Alvarado, Matthew J.; de Gouw, Joost; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Mathur, Rohit; Nolte, Christopher G.; Portmann, Robert W.; Unger, Nadine; Tosca, Mika; Horowitz, Larry W.

2018-02-01

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales.This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

PubMed Central

Mao, Jingqiu; Carlton, Annmarie; Cohen, Ronald C.; Brune, William H.; Brown, Steven S.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Pye, Havala O. T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Xu, Lu; McNeill, V. Faye; Tsigaridis, Kostas; McDonald, Brian C.; Warneke, Carsten; Guenther, Alex; Alvarado, Matthew J.; de Gouw, Joost; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Mathur, Rohit; Nolte, Christopher G.; Portmann, Robert W.; Unger, Nadine; Tosca, Mika; Horowitz, Larry W.

2018-01-01

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: Learning from Model-Observation Syntheses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mao, Jingqiu; Carlton, Annmarie; Cohen, Ronald C.; Brune, William H.; Brown, Steven S.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Pye, Havala O. T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Xu, Lu;

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Rapid prototyping and AI programming environments applied to payload modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carnahan, Richard S., Jr.; Mendler, Andrew P.

1987-01-01

This effort focused on using artificial intelligence (AI) programming environments and rapid prototyping to aid in both space flight manned and unmanned payload simulation and training. Significant problems addressed are the large amount of development time required to design and implement just one of these payload simulations and the relative inflexibility of the resulting model to accepting future modification. Results of this effort have suggested that both rapid prototyping and AI programming environments can significantly reduce development time and cost when applied to the domain of payload modeling for crew training. The techniques employed are applicable to a variety of domains where models or simulations are required.

Multi-model Effort Highlights Progress, Future Needs in Renewable Energy

Science.gov Websites

January 9, 2018 Models of the U.S. electricity sector are relied upon by sector stakeholders and decision of VRE technologies. The report also documents differences in modeling methodologies and shows how long-term planning and decision-making, both for the respective agencies and for other electricity

The NASA/National Space Science Data Center trapped radiation environment model program, 1964 - 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vette, James I.

1991-01-01

The major effort that NASA, initially with the help of the United States Air Force (USAF), carried out for 27 years to synthesize the experimental and theoretical results of space research related to energetic charged particles into a quantitative description of the terrestrial trapped radiation environment in the form of model environments is detailed. The effort is called the Trapped Radiation Environment Modeling Program (TREMP). In chapter 2 the historical background leading to the establishment of this program is given. Also, the purpose of this modeling program as established by the founders of the program is discussed. This is followed in chapter 3 by the philosophy and approach that was applied in this program throughout its lifetime. As will be seen, this philosophy led to the continuation of the program long after it would have expired. The highlights of the accomplishments are presented in chapter 4. A view to future possible efforts in this arena is given in chapter 5, mainly to pass on to future workers the differences that are perceived from these many years of experience. Chapter 6 is an appendix that details the chronology of the development of TREMP. Finally, the references, which document the work accomplished over these years, are presented in chapter 7.

Perception of effort in Exercise Science: Definition, measurement and perspectives.

PubMed

Pageaux, Benjamin

2016-11-01

Perception of effort, also known as perceived exertion or sense of effort, can be described as a cognitive feeling of work associated with voluntary actions. The aim of the present review is to provide an overview of what is perception of effort in Exercise Science. Due to the addition of sensations other than effort in its definition, the neurophysiology of perceived exertion remains poorly understood. As humans have the ability to dissociate effort from other sensations related to physical exercise, the need to use a narrower definition is emphasised. Consequently, a definition and some brief guidelines for its measurement are provided. Finally, an overview of the models present in the literature aiming to explain its neurophysiology, and some perspectives for future research are offered.

The ARPA-E Innovation Model: A Glimpse into the Future of Automotive Battery Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gur, Ilan

2014-03-07

The Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) focuses on funding game-changing R&D aimed at reducing U.S. foreign energy dependence and emissions. ARPA-E has made a strong commitment to support breakthrough energy storage technologies that can accelerate the mass adoption of electrified vehicles. This presentation will highlight the range of ARPA-E's efforts in this area, offering a glimpse into the ARPA-E innovation model and the future of automotive battery technology.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

The ARPA-E Innovation Model: A Glimpse into the Future of Automotive Battery Technology

ScienceCinema

Gur, Ilan (Program Director and Senior Advisor, ARPA-E)

2018-02-02

The Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) focuses on funding game-changing R&D aimed at reducing U.S. foreign energy dependence and emissions. ARPA-E has made a strong commitment to support breakthrough energy storage technologies that can accelerate the mass adoption of electrified vehicles. This presentation will highlight the range of ARPA-E's efforts in this area, offering a glimpse into the ARPA-E innovation model and the future of automotive battery technology.

A review of nuclear thermal propulsion carbide fuel corrosion and key issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; El-Genk, Mohamed S.

1994-01-01

Corrosion (mass loss) of carbide nuclear fuels due to their exposure to hot hydrogen in nuclear thermal propulsion engine systems greatly impacts the performance, thrust-to-weight and life of such systems. This report provides an overview of key issues and processes associated with the corrosion of carbide materials. Additionally, past pertinent development reactor test observations, as well as related experimental work and analysis modeling efforts are reviewed. At the conclusion, recommendations are presented, which provide the foundation for future corrosion modeling and verification efforts.

EPA ALPHA Modeling of a Conventional Mid-Size Car with CVT and Comparable Powertrain Technologies (SAE 2016-01-1141)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents the testing and ALPHA modeling of a CVT-equipped 2013 Nissan Altima 2.5S using comparable powertrain technology inputs in the effort to model the current and future U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet approximated using components with comparable levels of performan...

Reviewing the effort-reward imbalance model: drawing up the balance of 45 empirical studies.

PubMed

van Vegchel, Natasja; de Jonge, Jan; Bosma, Hans; Schaufeli, Wilmar

2005-03-01

The present paper provides a review of 45 studies on the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) Model published from 1986 to 2003 (inclusive). In 1986, the ERI Model was introduced by Siegrist et al. (Biological and Psychological Factors in Cardiovascular Disease, Springer, Berlin, 1986, pp. 104-126; Social Science & Medicine 22 (1986) 247). The central tenet of the ERI Model is that an imbalance between (high) efforts and (low) rewards leads to (sustained) strain reactions. Besides efforts and rewards, overcommitment (i.e., a personality characteristic) is a crucial aspect of the model. Essentially, the ERI Model contains three main assumptions, which could be labeled as (1) the extrinsic ERI hypothesis: high efforts in combination with low rewards increase the risk of poor health, (2) the intrinsic overcommitment hypothesis: a high level of overcommitment may increase the risk of poor health, and (3) the interaction hypothesis: employees reporting an extrinsic ERI and a high level of overcommitment have an even higher risk of poor health. The review showed that the extrinsic ERI hypothesis has gained considerable empirical support. Results for overcommitment remain inconsistent and the moderating effect of overcommitment on the relation between ERI and employee health has been scarcely examined. Based on these review results suggestions for future research are proposed.

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Exemplar for simulation challenges: Large-deformation micromechanics of Sylgard 184/glass microballoon syntactic foams.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Judith Alice; Long, Kevin Nicholas

2018-05-01

Sylgard® 184/Glass Microballoon (GMB) potting material is currently used in many NW systems. Analysts need a macroscale constitutive model that can predict material behavior under complex loading and damage evolution. To address this need, ongoing modeling and experimental efforts have focused on study of damage evolution in these materials. Micromechanical finite element simulations that resolve individual GMB and matrix components promote discovery and better understanding of the material behavior. With these simulations, we can study the role of the GMB volume fraction, time-dependent damage, behavior under confined vs. unconfined compression, and the effects of partial damage. These simulations are challengingmore » and push the boundaries of capability even with the high performance computing tools available at Sandia. We summarize the major challenges and the current state of this modeling effort, as an exemplar of micromechanical modeling needs that can motivate advances in future computing efforts.« less

Status of Computational Aerodynamic Modeling Tools for Aircraft Loss-of-Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frink, Neal T.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Atkins, Harold L.; Viken, Sally A.; Petrilli, Justin L.; Gopalarathnam, Ashok; Paul, Ryan C.

2016-01-01

A concerted effort has been underway over the past several years to evolve computational capabilities for modeling aircraft loss-of-control under the NASA Aviation Safety Program. A principal goal has been to develop reliable computational tools for predicting and analyzing the non-linear stability & control characteristics of aircraft near stall boundaries affecting safe flight, and for utilizing those predictions for creating augmented flight simulation models that improve pilot training. Pursuing such an ambitious task with limited resources required the forging of close collaborative relationships with a diverse body of computational aerodynamicists and flight simulation experts to leverage their respective research efforts into the creation of NASA tools to meet this goal. Considerable progress has been made and work remains to be done. This paper summarizes the status of the NASA effort to establish computational capabilities for modeling aircraft loss-of-control and offers recommendations for future work.

Analysis of structural dynamic data from Skylab. Volume 1: Technical discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demchak, L.; Harcrow, H.

1976-01-01

A compendium of Skylab structural dynamics analytical and test programs is presented. These programs are assessed to identify lessons learned from the structural dynamic prediction effort and to provide guidelines for future analysts and program managers of complex spacecraft systems. It is a synopsis of the structural dynamic effort performed under the Skylab Integration contract and specifically covers the development, utilization, and correlation of Skylab Dynamic Orbital Models.

The Pathologist Workforce in the United States: II. An Interactive Modeling Tool for Analyzing Future Qualitative and Quantitative Staffing Demands for Services.

PubMed

Robboy, Stanley J; Gupta, Saurabh; Crawford, James M; Cohen, Michael B; Karcher, Donald S; Leonard, Debra G B; Magnani, Barbarajean; Novis, David A; Prystowsky, Michael B; Powell, Suzanne Z; Gross, David J; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen

2015-11-01

Pathologists are physicians who make diagnoses based on interpretation of tissue and cellular specimens (surgical/cytopathology, molecular/genomic pathology, autopsy), provide medical leadership and consultation for laboratory medicine, and are integral members of their institutions' interdisciplinary patient care teams. To develop a dynamic modeling tool to examine how individual factors and practice variables can forecast demand for pathologist services. Build and test a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates about current and new pathologist efforts. Most pathologists' efforts focus on anatomic (52%), laboratory (14%), and other direct services (8%) for individual patients. Population-focused services (12%) (eg, laboratory medical direction) and other professional responsibilities (14%) (eg, teaching, research, and hospital committees) consume the rest of their time. Modeling scenarios were used to assess the need to increase or decrease efforts related globally to the Affordable Care Act, and specifically, to genomic medicine, laboratory consolidation, laboratory medical direction, and new areas where pathologists' expertise can add value. Our modeling tool allows pathologists, educators, and policy experts to assess how various factors may affect demand for pathologists' services. These factors include an aging population, advances in biomedical technology, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based medical care systems. In the future, pathologists will likely have to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practicing medicine to accommodate new value-based delivery models.

Future directions for LDEF ionizing radiation modeling and assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1992-01-01

Data from the ionizing radiation dosimetry aboard LDEF provide a unique opportunity for assessing the accuracy of current space radiation models and in identifying needed improvements for future mission applications. Details are given of the LDEF data available for radiation model evaluations. The status is given of model comparisons with LDEF data, along with future directions of planned modeling efforts and data comparison assessments. The methodology is outlined which is related to modeling being used to help insure that the LDEF ionizing radiation results can be used to address ionizing radiation issues for future missions. In general, the LDEF radiation modeling has emphasized quick-look predictions using simplified methods to make comparisons with absorbed dose measurements and induced radioactivity measurements of emissions. Modeling and LDEF data comparisons related to linear energy transfer spectra are of importance for several reasons which are outlined. The planned modeling and LDEF data comparisons for LET spectra is discussed, including components of the LET spectra due to different environment sources, contribution from different production mechanisms, and spectra in plastic detectors vs silicon.

Spacecraft Dynamics and Control Program at AFRPL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, A.; Slimak, L. K. S.; Schloegel, W. T.

1986-01-01

A number of future DOD and NASA spacecraft such as the space based radar will be not only an order of magnitude larger in dimension than the current spacecraft, but will exhibit extreme structural flexibility with very low structural vibration frequencies. Another class of spacecraft (such as the space defense platforms) will combine large physical size with extremely precise pointing requirement. Such problems require a total departure from the traditional methods of modeling and control system design of spacecraft where structural flexibility is treated as a secondary effect. With these problems in mind, the Air Force Rocket Propulsion Laboratory (AFRPL) initiated research to develop dynamics and control technology so as to enable the future large space structures (LSS). AFRPL's effort in this area can be subdivided into the following three overlapping areas: (1) ground experiments, (2) spacecraft modeling and control, and (3) sensors and actuators. Both the in-house and contractual efforts of the AFRPL in LSS are summarized.

Vaccines: an ongoing promise?

PubMed

Alsahli, M; Farrell, R J; Michetti, P

2001-01-01

Over the past decade, intensive research has focused on developing a vaccine therapy for Helicobacter pylori. Substantial unresolved questions cloud the current approach, and the development of a vaccine against this unique organism has proved very challenging. Many candidate vaccines have been tested in animal models. The immunogenicity and the safety of some vaccine formulations have been recently evaluated through clinical trials, and the efficacy of these vaccine therapies in humans will be determined in the near future. This article will provide an overview of the current knowledge of natural and vaccine-induced immune responses to H. pylori infection. It will also review past vaccine successes and failures in animal models and the limited experience to date in using vaccine therapy in humans. Several obstacles to H. pylori vaccine development efforts along with the future direction of these efforts will be discussed. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

Design Science Research toward Designing/Prototyping a Repeatable Model for Testing Location Management (LM) Algorithms for Wireless Networking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peacock, Christopher

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research effort was to develop a model that provides repeatable Location Management (LM) testing using a network simulation tool, QualNet version 5.1 (2011). The model will provide current and future protocol developers a framework to simulate stable protocol environments for development. This study used the Design Science…

Theater Level War Games.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-02

to Army Modeling efforts. Include design for future priori- ties and specific actions. (13) Establish standards, methodology and formats for exter- I...with models and the wider technological-scientific-academic community, (4) increased centralized management of data, and (5) design of a proactive...andObjectives ............... 2 Purposes and Preliminary Results . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Scope of Study .................... 6 Methodology

Acceptance versus Change in Behavior Therapy: An Interview with Neil Jacobson.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hines, Max

1998-01-01

Neil Jacobson is a leader in research-based efforts to improve behavioral couples therapy. This interview focuses on his professional journey toward an integrative model, as well as his thoughts about the future directions of behavioral therapy and family counseling. The integrative-couples therapy model is described and discussed. (Author/EMK)

Modeling the Response of Nutrient Concentrations and Primary Productivity in Lake Michigan to Nutrient Loading Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

A water quality model, LM3 Eutro, will be used to estimate the response of nutrient concentrations and primary productivity in Lake Michigan to nutrient loading scenarios. This work is part of a larger effort, the Future Midwestern landscapes study, that will estimate the produc...

Effort test failure: toward a predictive model.

PubMed

Webb, James W; Batchelor, Jennifer; Meares, Susanne; Taylor, Alan; Marsh, Nigel V

2012-01-01

Predictors of effort test failure were examined in an archival sample of 555 traumatically brain-injured (TBI) adults. Logistic regression models were used to examine whether compensation-seeking, injury-related, psychological, demographic, and cultural factors predicted effort test failure (ETF). ETF was significantly associated with compensation-seeking (OR = 3.51, 95% CI [1.25, 9.79]), low education (OR:. 83 [.74, . 94]), self-reported mood disorder (OR: 5.53 [3.10, 9.85]), exaggerated displays of behavior (OR: 5.84 [2.15, 15.84]), psychotic illness (OR: 12.86 [3.21, 51.44]), being foreign-born (OR: 5.10 [2.35, 11.06]), having sustained a workplace accident (OR: 4.60 [2.40, 8.81]), and mild traumatic brain injury severity compared with very severe traumatic brain injury severity (OR: 0.37 [0.13, 0.995]). ETF was associated with a broader range of statistical predictors than has previously been identified and the relative importance of psychological and behavioral predictors of ETF was evident in the logistic regression model. Variables that might potentially extend the model of ETF are identified for future research efforts.

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

PubMed

Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

2016-12-01

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf

PubMed Central

Selden, Rebecca L.; Latour, Robert J.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Seagraves, Richard J.; Pinsky, Malin L.

2018-01-01

Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. PMID:29768423

Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf.

PubMed

Morley, James W; Selden, Rebecca L; Latour, Robert J; Frölicher, Thomas L; Seagraves, Richard J; Pinsky, Malin L

2018-01-01

Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Issues and Importance of "Good" Starting Points for Nonlinear Regression for Mathematical Modeling with Maple: Basic Model Fitting to Make Predictions with Oscillating Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, William

2012-01-01

The purpose of our modeling effort is to predict future outcomes. We assume the data collected are both accurate and relatively precise. For our oscillating data, we examined several mathematical modeling forms for predictions. We also examined both ignoring the oscillations as an important feature and including the oscillations as an important…

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Volume 1: Program user's guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman J.

1993-03-01

A Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design analysis tool is required to support current and future Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) propulsion and vehicle design studies. Currently available NTP engine design models are those developed during the NERVA program in the 1960's and early 1970's and are highly unique to that design or are modifications of current liquid propulsion system design models. To date, NTP engine-based liquid design models lack integrated design of key NTP engine design features in the areas of reactor, shielding, multi-propellant capability, and multi-redundant pump feed fuel systems. Additionally, since the SEI effort is in the initial development stage, a robust, verified NTP analysis design tool could be of great use to the community. This effort developed an NTP engine system design analysis program (tool), known as the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS) program, to support ongoing and future engine system and stage design study efforts. In this effort, Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) NTP version of the Expanded Liquid Engine Simulation (ELES) program was modified extensively to include Westinghouse Electric Corporation's near-term solid-core reactor design model. The ELES program has extensive capability to conduct preliminary system design analysis of liquid rocket systems and vehicles. The program is modular in nature and is versatile in terms of modeling state-of-the-art component and system options as discussed. The Westinghouse reactor design model, which was integrated in the NESS program, is based on the near-term solid-core ENABLER NTP reactor design concept. This program is now capable of accurately modeling (characterizing) a complete near-term solid-core NTP engine system in great detail, for a number of design options, in an efficient manner. The following discussion summarizes the overall analysis methodology, key assumptions, and capabilities associated with the NESS presents an example problem, and compares the results to related NTP engine system designs. Initial installation instructions and program disks are in Volume 2 of the NESS Program User's Guide.

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Volume 1: Program user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman J.

1993-01-01

A Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design analysis tool is required to support current and future Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) propulsion and vehicle design studies. Currently available NTP engine design models are those developed during the NERVA program in the 1960's and early 1970's and are highly unique to that design or are modifications of current liquid propulsion system design models. To date, NTP engine-based liquid design models lack integrated design of key NTP engine design features in the areas of reactor, shielding, multi-propellant capability, and multi-redundant pump feed fuel systems. Additionally, since the SEI effort is in the initial development stage, a robust, verified NTP analysis design tool could be of great use to the community. This effort developed an NTP engine system design analysis program (tool), known as the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS) program, to support ongoing and future engine system and stage design study efforts. In this effort, Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) NTP version of the Expanded Liquid Engine Simulation (ELES) program was modified extensively to include Westinghouse Electric Corporation's near-term solid-core reactor design model. The ELES program has extensive capability to conduct preliminary system design analysis of liquid rocket systems and vehicles. The program is modular in nature and is versatile in terms of modeling state-of-the-art component and system options as discussed. The Westinghouse reactor design model, which was integrated in the NESS program, is based on the near-term solid-core ENABLER NTP reactor design concept. This program is now capable of accurately modeling (characterizing) a complete near-term solid-core NTP engine system in great detail, for a number of design options, in an efficient manner. The following discussion summarizes the overall analysis methodology, key assumptions, and capabilities associated with the NESS presents an example problem, and compares the results to related NTP engine system designs. Initial installation instructions and program disks are in Volume 2 of the NESS Program User's Guide.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Integrated simulations for fusion research in the 2030's time frame (white paper outline)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, Alex; LoDestro, Lynda L.; Parker, Jeffrey B.

This white paper presents the rationale for developing a community-wide capability for whole-device modeling, and advocates for an effort with the expectation of persistence: a long-term programmatic commitment, and support for community efforts. Statement of 2030 goal (two suggestions): (a) Robust integrated simulation tools to aid real-time experimental discharges and reactor designs by employing a hierarchy in fidelity of physics models. (b) To produce by the early 2030s a capability for validated, predictive simulation via integration of a suite of physics models from moderate through high fidelity, to understand and plan full plasma discharges, aid in data interpretation, carry outmore » discovery science, and optimize future machine designs. We can achieve this goal via a focused effort to extend current scientific capabilities and rigorously integrate simulations of disparate physics into a comprehensive set of workflows.« less

Modeling Students' Response to Intervention Using an Individualized Piecewise Growth Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zvoch, Keith; Stevens, Joseph

2011-01-01

The early identification of students at-risk for future reading difficulty has become a focal point for K-12 stakeholders seeking to actively prevent the emergence of student reading deficits. Early and active intervention efforts for struggling readers have taken on greater urgency given the accountability pressures that stem from the No Child…

Mapping the current and potential distribution of red spruce in Virginia: implications for the restoration of degraded high elevation habitat

Treesearch

Heather Griscom; Helmut Kraenzle; Zachary. Bortolot

2010-01-01

The objective of our project is to create a habitat suitability model to predict potential and future red spruce forest distributions. This model will be used to better understand the influence of climate change on red spruce distribution and to help guide forest restoration efforts.

Self-control and Task Timing Shift Self-efficacy and Influence Willingness to Engage in Effortful Tasks

PubMed Central

Ein-Gar, Danit; Steinhart, Yael

2017-01-01

Self-efficacy constitutes a key factor that influences people's inclination to engage in effortful tasks. In this study, we focus on an interesting interplay between two prominent factors known to influence engagement in effortful tasks: the timing of the task (i.e., whether the task is scheduled to take place in the near or distant future) and individuals' levels of self-control. Across three studies, we show that these two factors have an interacting effect on self-efficacy. Low self-control (LSC) individuals report higher self-efficacy for distant-future effortful tasks than for near-future tasks, whereas high self-control (HSC) individuals report higher self-efficacy for near-future tasks than for distant future tasks. We further demonstrate how self-efficacy then molds individuals' willingness to engage in those effortful tasks. Given that a particular task may comprise effortful aspects alongside more enjoyable aspects, we show that the effects we observe emerge with regard to a task whose effortful aspects are salient and that the effects are eliminated when the enjoyable aspects of that same task are highlighted. PMID:29075225

Parametric Cost Modeling of Space Missions Using the Develop New Projects (DMP) Implementation Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, Leigh; Hihn, Jairus; Roust, Kevin; Warfield, Keith

2000-01-01

This paper presents an overview of a parametric cost model that has been built at JPL to estimate costs of future, deep space, robotic science missions. Due to the recent dramatic changes in JPL business practices brought about by an internal reengineering effort known as develop new products (DNP), high-level historic cost data is no longer considered analogous to future missions. Therefore, the historic data is of little value in forecasting costs for projects developed using the DNP process. This has lead to the development of an approach for obtaining expert opinion and also for combining actual data with expert opinion to provide a cost database for future missions. In addition, the DNP cost model has a maximum of objective cost drivers which reduces the likelihood of model input error. Version 2 is now under development which expands the model capabilities, links it more tightly with key design technical parameters, and is grounded in more rigorous statistical techniques. The challenges faced in building this model will be discussed, as well as it's background, development approach, status, validation, and future plans.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas. Improving water demand forecasts will help planners understand and optimize future investments in water supply infrastructure and related programs.

Space Electrochemical Research and Technology (SERT), 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Richard S. (Editor)

1989-01-01

The proceedings of NASA's second Space Electrochemical Research and Technology Conference are presented. The objectives of the conference were to examine current technologies, research efforts, and advanced ideas, and to identify technical barriers which affect the advancement of electrochemical energy storage systems for space applications. The conference provided a forum for the exchange of ideas and opinions of those actively involved in the field, with the intention of coalescing views and findings into conclusions on progress in the field, prospects for future advances, areas overlooked, and the directions of future efforts. Related overviews were presented in the areas of NASA advanced mission models. Papers were presented and workshops conducted in four technical areas: advanced concepts, hydrogen-oxygen fuel cells and electrolyzers, the nickel electrode, and advanced rechargable batteries.

Occupational dreams, choices and aspirations: adolescents' entrepreneurial prospects and orientations.

PubMed

Schmitt-Rodermund, Eva; Vondracek, Fred W

2002-02-01

The present study examined possible early antecedents of entrepreneurship of 14-17-year-old 10th grade students (n=320). We hypothesized that Entrepreneurial Orientation (interest and self-efficacy), together with Willingness to Expend Effort, would be an important predictor of an adolescent's Entrepreneurial Prospects, i.e. prospects of becoming self-employed in the future. Furthermore, personality and the model of self-employed family were expected to predict the level of Entrepreneurial Orientation. The same relationships were investigated separately for students who were more or less willing to expend effort. Among students more willing to expend effort, levels of Entrepreneurial Orientation were higher for those who were conscientious, self-efficient, open to new experiences, and low in agreeableness. Among students less willing to expend effort, a high need for social recognition predicted higher levels of Entrepreneurial Orientation. In addition, parents' model for them was connected with lower levels of Entrepreneurial Orientation. A moderating effect of Willingness to Expend Effort was supported by the results for parents' model and need for social recognition. Copyright 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents.

Future Air Transportation System Breakout Series Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

This presentation discusses: AvSTAR Future System Effort Critically important; Investment in the future; Need to follow a systems engineering process; and Efforts need to be worked in worldwide context

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.

2004-09-01

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a resultmore » of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.« less

Stress and deformation modeling of multiple rotary combustion engine trochoid housings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lychuk, W. M.; Bradley, S. A.; Vilmann, C. R.; Passerello, C. E.; Lee, C.-M.

1986-01-01

This paper documents the development of the capability to produce finite element models of alternate trochoid housing configurations. The effort needed to produce these models is greatly reduced by the use of a newly developed specialized finite element preprocessor which is described. The results of static stress comparisons conducted on a Mazda trochoid housing are presented. Planned future development of this modeling capability to operational situations is also presented.

Generation of a modeling and simulation system for a semi-closed plant growth chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackwell, A. L.; Maa, S.; Kliss, M.; Blackwell, C. C.

1993-01-01

The fluid and thermal dynamics of the environment of plants in a small controlled-environment system have been modeled. The results of the simulation under two scenarios have been compared to measurements taken during tests on the actual system. The motivation for the modeling effort and the status of the modeling exercise and system scenario studies are described. An evaluation of the model and a discussion of future studies are included.

Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Choi, Jun-Young; Jin, Fei-Fei; Watanabe, Masahiro

2018-01-01

Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S-40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing1-6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air-sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

Past, Present and Future: Urgency of Dealing with Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

This paper gives an historic perspective on 10 critical phases and actions in advancing an understanding of climate change and taking appropriate domestic and international action. Credit goes to atmospheric scientists for their committed efforts to understand, model and measure ...

Crop area estimation based on remotely-sensed data with an accurate but costly subsample

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gunst, R. F.

1985-01-01

Research activities conducted under the auspices of National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cooperative Agreement NCC 9-9 are discussed. During this contract period research efforts are concentrated in two primary areas. The first are is an investigation of the use of measurement error models as alternatives to least squares regression estimators of crop production or timber biomass. The secondary primary area of investigation is on the estimation of the mixing proportion of two-component mixture models. This report lists publications, technical reports, submitted manuscripts, and oral presentation generated by these research efforts. Possible areas of future research are mentioned.

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-20

being integrated within MAT, including Granger causality. Granger causality tests whether a data series helps when predicting future values of another...relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. Granger, C. W. (1980). Testing ... testing dataset. This effort is described in Section 3.2. 3.1. Improvements in Granger Causality User Interface Various metrics of causality are

Presentation on systems cluster research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgenthaler, George W.

1989-01-01

This viewgraph presentation presents an overview of systems cluster research performed by the Center for Space Construction. The goals of the research are to develop concepts, insights, and models for space construction and to develop systems engineering/analysis curricula for training future aerospace engineers. The following topics are covered: CSC systems analysis/systems engineering (SIMCON) model, CSC systems cluster schedule, system life-cycle, model optimization techniques, publications, cooperative efforts, and sponsored research.

Modeling and analysis of chill and fill processes for the cryogenic storage and transfer engineering development unit tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedayat, A.; Cartagena, W.; Majumdar, A. K.; LeClair, A. C.

2016-03-01

NASA's future missions may require long-term storage and transfer of cryogenic propellants. The Engineering Development Unit (EDU), a NASA in-house effort supported by both Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Glenn Research Center, is a cryogenic fluid management (CFM) test article that primarily serves as a manufacturing pathfinder and a risk reduction task for a future CFM payload. The EDU test article comprises a flight-like tank, internal components, insulation, and attachment struts. The EDU is designed to perform integrated passive thermal control performance testing with liquid hydrogen (LH2) in a test-like vacuum environment. A series of tests, with LH2 as a testing fluid, was conducted at Test Stand 300 at MSFC during the summer of 2014. The objective of this effort was to develop a thermal/fluid model for evaluating the thermodynamic behavior of the EDU tank during the chill and fill processes. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, an MSFC in-house general-purpose computer program for flow network analysis, was utilized to model and simulate the chill and fill portion of the testing. The model contained the LH2 supply source, feed system, EDU tank, and vent system. The test setup, modeling description, and comparison of model predictions with the test data are presented.

Modeling and Analysis of Chill and Fill Processes for the EDU Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hedayat, A.; Cartagena, W.; Majumdar, A. K.; Leclair, A. C.

2015-01-01

NASA's future missions may require long-term storage and transfer of cryogenic propellants. The Engineering Development Unit (EDU), a NASA in-house effort supported by both Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Glenn Research Center (GRC), is a Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) test article that primarily serves as a manufacturing pathfinder and a risk reduction task for a future CFM payload. The EDU test article, comprises a flight like tank, internal components, insulation, and attachment struts. The EDU is designed to perform integrated passive thermal control performance testing with liquid hydrogen in a space-like vacuum environment. A series of tests, with liquid hydrogen as a testing fluid, was conducted at Test Stand 300 at MSFC during summer of 2014. The objective of this effort was to develop a thermal/fluid model for evaluating the thermodynamic behavior of the EDU tank during the chill and fill processes. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), an MSFC in-house general-purpose computer program for flow network analysis, was utilized to model and simulate the chill and fill portion of the testing. The model contained the liquid hydrogen supply source, feed system, EDU tank, and vent system. The modeling description and comparison of model predictions with the test data will be presented in the final paper.

Planning intensive care unit design using computer simulation modeling: optimizing integration of clinical, operational, and architectural requirements.

PubMed

OʼHara, Susan

2014-01-01

Nurses have increasingly been regarded as critical members of the planning team as architects recognize their knowledge and value. But the nurses' role as knowledge experts can be expanded to leading efforts to integrate the clinical, operational, and architectural expertise through simulation modeling. Simulation modeling allows for the optimal merge of multifactorial data to understand the current state of the intensive care unit and predict future states. Nurses can champion the simulation modeling process and reap the benefits of a cost-effective way to test new designs, processes, staffing models, and future programming trends prior to implementation. Simulation modeling is an evidence-based planning approach, a standard, for integrating the sciences with real client data, to offer solutions for improving patient care.

Aviation Logistics Support in the United States Coast Guard: An Assessment of Management and Cost-Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

34 with air stations, with DoD support sources, with AR&SC, with other USCG Headquarters elements, with commercial vendors, and with research and...STRATEGY FOR THE FUTURE Based on our research , knowledge of other aviation logistics support programs, and analysis of the USCG’s program, we believe that...concerted effort to develop and refine the maintenance and supply data the model uses. That effort should include ditermining the basic Ao requirement and

Nonlinear Constitutive Relations for High Temperature Applications, 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The purpose of the symposium was to review the state-of-the-art in nonlinear constitutive modeling of high temperature materials for aeronautics applications and to identify the need for future research and development efforts in this area. Through this symposium, it was recognized that considerable research efforts are urgently needed in the development of nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications. In the aerospace industry this need is further prompted by recent advances in high temperature materials technology and new demands on material and component performance.

Perspectives On Dilution Jet Mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdeman, J. D.; Srinivasan, R.

1990-01-01

NASA recently completed program of measurements and modeling of mixing of transverse jets with ducted crossflow, motivated by need to design or tailor temperature pattern at combustor exit in gas turbine engines. Objectives of program to identify dominant physical mechanisms governing mixing, extend empirical models to provide near-term predictive capability, and compare numerical code calculations with data to guide future analysis improvement efforts.

Interoperability of Neuroscience Modeling Software

PubMed Central

Cannon, Robert C.; Gewaltig, Marc-Oliver; Gleeson, Padraig; Bhalla, Upinder S.; Cornelis, Hugo; Hines, Michael L.; Howell, Fredrick W.; Muller, Eilif; Stiles, Joel R.; Wils, Stefan; De Schutter, Erik

2009-01-01

Neuroscience increasingly uses computational models to assist in the exploration and interpretation of complex phenomena. As a result, considerable effort is invested in the development of software tools and technologies for numerical simulations and for the creation and publication of models. The diversity of related tools leads to the duplication of effort and hinders model reuse. Development practices and technologies that support interoperability between software systems therefore play an important role in making the modeling process more efficient and in ensuring that published models can be reliably and easily reused. Various forms of interoperability are possible including the development of portable model description standards, the adoption of common simulation languages or the use of standardized middleware. Each of these approaches finds applications within the broad range of current modeling activity. However more effort is required in many areas to enable new scientific questions to be addressed. Here we present the conclusions of the “Neuro-IT Interoperability of Simulators” workshop, held at the 11th computational neuroscience meeting in Edinburgh (July 19-20 2006; http://www.cnsorg.org). We assess the current state of interoperability of neural simulation software and explore the future directions that will enable the field to advance. PMID:17873374

Validation of Model Simulations of Anvil Cirrus Properties During TWP-ICE: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zipser, Edward J.

2013-05-20

This 3-year grant, with two extensions, resulted in a successful 5-year effort, led by Ph.D. student Adam Varble, to compare cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations with the excellent database obtained during the TWP-ICE field campaign. The objective, largely achieved, is to undertake these comparisons comprehensively and quantitatively, informing the community in ways that goes beyond pointing out errors in the models, but points out ways to improve both cloud dynamics and microphysics parameterizations in future modeling efforts. Under DOE support, Adam Varble, with considerable assistance from Dr. Ann Fridlind and others, entrained scientists who ran some 10 different CRMs andmore » 4 different limited area models (LAMs) using a variety of microphysics parameterizations, to ensure that the conclusions of the study will have considerable generality.« less

Ni-Co laterite deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsh, Erin E.; Anderson, Eric D.

2011-01-01

Nickel-cobalt (Ni-Co) laterite deposits are an important source of nickel (Ni). Currently, there is a decline in magmatic Ni-bearing sulfide lode deposit resources. New efforts to develop an alternative source of Ni, particularly with improved metallurgy processes, make the Ni-Co laterites an important exploration target in anticipation of the future demand for Ni. This deposit model provides a general description of the geology and mineralogy of Ni-Co laterite deposits, and contains discussion of the influences of climate, geomorphology (relief), drainage, tectonism, structure, and protolith on the development of favorable weathering profiles. This model of Ni-Co laterite deposits represents part of the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program's effort to update the existing models to be used for an upcoming national mineral resource assessment.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Urban, M C; Bocedi, G; Hendry, A P; Mihoub, J-B; Pe'er, G; Singer, A; Bridle, J R; Crozier, L G; De Meester, L; Godsoe, W; Gonzalez, A; Hellmann, J J; Holt, R D; Huth, A; Johst, K; Krug, C B; Leadley, P W; Palmer, S C F; Pantel, J H; Schmitz, A; Zollner, P A; Travis, J M J

2016-09-09

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-12-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

Recent advances in estimating protein and energy requirements of ruminants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Considerable efforts have been made in gathering scientific data and developing feeding systems for ruminant animals in the last 50 years. Future endeavours should target the assessment, interpretation, and integration of the accumulated knowledge to develop nutrition models in a holistic and pragma...

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Hao; Ning, Shaowei; Hiroshi, Ishidaira

2018-06-01

Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM). In addition, future leaf area index (LAI) is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC) based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

2009-01-01

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

At the same time, the PIs participate in Australian efforts of developing wave-ocean- ice coupled models for Antarctica . Specific new physics modules...Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling Alexander V. Babanin Swinburne University of Technology, PO Box...operational forecast. Altimeter climatology and the wave models will be used to study the current and future wind/wave and ice trends. APPROACH

Precision GPS ephemerides and baselines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Based on the research, the area of precise ephemerides for GPS satellites, the following observations can be made pertaining to the status and future work needed regarding orbit accuracy. There are several aspects which need to be addressed in discussing determination of precise orbits, such as force models, kinematic models, measurement models, data reduction/estimation methods, etc. Although each one of these aspects was studied at CSR in research efforts, only points pertaining to the force modeling aspect are addressed.

Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

2004-01-01

Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

Investigating the Role of Mesoscale Processes and Ice Dynamics in Carbon and Iron Fluxes in a Changing Amundsen Sea (INSPIRE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, L.; Yager, P. L.; St-Laurent, P.; Dinniman, M.; Oliver, H.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Sherrell, R. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

2016-02-01

The Amundsen Sea, in the remote S. Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, is one of the least studied Antarctic continental shelf regions. It shares key processes with other W. Antarctic shelf regions, such as formation of a recurring polynya, important ice shelf-ocean linkages, and high biological production, but has unique characteristics as well. The Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP), features 1) large intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf, 2) the fastest melting ice sheets in Antarctica, 3) the most productive coastal polynya and a large atmospheric CO2 sink, and 4) very rapid declines in seasonal sea ice. Here we report on a new effort for this region that unites independent, state-of-the-art modeling and field data synthesis efforts to address important unanswered questions about carbon fluxes, iron supply, and climate sensitivity in this key region of the coastal Antarctic. Following on the heels of a highly successful oceanographic field program, the Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE; which sampled the ASP with high spatial resolution during the onset of the enormous phytoplankton bloom of 2011), the INSPIRE project is a collaboration between ASPIRE senior scientists and an experienced team of physical and biogeochemical modelers who can use ASPIRE field data to both validate and extend the capabilities of an existing Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the Amundsen Sea. This new effort will add biology and biogeochemistry (including features potentially unique to the ASP region) to an existing physical model, allowing us to address key questions about bloom mechanisms and climate sensitivity that could not be answered by field campaigns or modeling alone. This project is expected to generate new insights and hypotheses that will ultimately guide sampling strategies of future field efforts investigating how present and future climate change impacts this important region of the world.

Streamline three-dimensional thermal model of a lithium titanate pouch cell battery in extreme temperature conditions with module simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaguemont, Joris; Omar, Noshin; Martel, François; Van den Bossche, Peter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

2017-11-01

In this paper, the development of a three-dimensional (3D) lithium titanium oxide (LTO) pouch cell is presented to first better comprehend its thermal behavior within electrified vehicle applications, but also to propose a strong modeling base for future thermal management system. Current 3D-thermal models are based on electrochemical reactions which are in need for elaborated meshing effort and long computational time. There lacks a fast electro-thermal model which can capture voltage, current and thermal distribution variation during the whole process. The proposed thermal model is a reduce-effort temperature simulation approach involving a 0D-electrical model accommodating a 3D-thermal model to exclude electrochemical processes. The thermal model is based on heat-transfer theory and its temperature distribution prediction incorporates internal conduction and heat generation effect as well as convection. In addition, experimental tests are conducted to validate the model. Results show that both the heat dissipation rate and surface temperature uniformity data are in agreement with simulation results, which satisfies the application requirements for electrified vehicles. Additionally, a LTO battery pack sizing and modeling is also designed, applied and displays a non-uniformity of the cells under driving operation. Ultimately, the model will serve as a basis for the future development of a thermal strategy for LTO cells that operate in a large temperature range, which is a strong contribution to the existing body of scientific literature.

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. Inmore » this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the effects of innovative (no n-monetary) policy instruments through evaluation and to develop approaches to model both conventional and innovative policies. The explicit modeling of barriers and decision making in the models seems a promising way to enable modeling of conventional and innovative policies. A modular modeling approach is essential to not only provide transparency, but also to use the available resources most effectively and efficiently. Many large models have been developed in the past, but have been abandoned after only brief periods of use. A development path based on modular building blocks needs the establishment of a flexible but uniform modeling framework. The leadership of international agencies and organizations is essential in the establishment of such a framework. A preference is given for ''softlinks'' between different modules and models, to increase transparency and reduce complexity. There is a strong need to improve the efficiency of data collection and interpretation efforts to produce reliable model inputs. The workshop participants support the need for the establishment of an (in-)formal exchanges of information, as well as modeling approaches. The development of an informal network of research institutes and universities to help build a common dataset and exchange ideas on specific areas is proposed. Starting with an exchange of students would be a relative low-cost way to start such collaboration. It would be essential to focus on specific topics. It is also essential to maintain means of regular exchange of ideas between researchers in the different focus points.« less

Atmospheric Reanalyses-Recent Progress and Prospects for the Future. A Report from a Technical Workshop, April 2010. Volume 29

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Dee, Dick; Woollen, Jack; Compo, Gilbert P.; Onogi, Kazutoshi; Gelaro, Ron; Bosilovich, Michael G.; daSilva, Arlindo; Pawson, Steven; Schubert, Siegfried;

Integrating Health and Mental Health Services: A Past and Future History.

PubMed

Druss, Benjamin G; Goldman, Howard H

2018-04-25

The authors trace the modern history, current landscape, and future prospects for integration between mental health and general medical care in the United States. Research and new treatment models developed in the 1980s and early 1990s helped inform federal legislation, including the 2008 Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act and the 2010 Affordable Care Act, which in turn are creating new opportunities to further integrate services. Future efforts should build on this foundation to develop clinical, service-level, and public health approaches that more fully integrate mental, medical, substance use, and social services.

Cryogenic Fluid Storage Technology Development: Recent and Planned Efforts at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moran, Matthew E.

2009-01-01

Recent technology development work conducted at NASA in the area of Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) storage is highlighted, including summary results, key impacts, and ongoing efforts. Thermodynamic vent system (TVS) ground test results are shown for hydrogen, methane, and oxygen. Joule-Thomson (J-T) device tests related to clogging in hydrogen are summarized, along with the absence of clogging in oxygen and methane tests. Confirmation of analytical relations and bonding techniques for broad area cooling (BAC) concepts based on tube-to-tank tests are presented. Results of two-phase lumped-parameter computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models are highlighted, including validation of the model with hydrogen self pressurization test data. These models were used to simulate Altair representative methane and oxygen tanks subjected to 210 days of lunar surface storage. Engineering analysis tools being developed to support system level trades and vehicle propulsion system designs are also cited. Finally, prioritized technology development risks identified for Constellation cryogenic propulsion systems are presented, and future efforts to address those risks are discussed.

Material Models for the Human Torso Finite Element Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-04-04

material characterizations drawn from current literature. Biofidelity of the ARL torso was determined by comparing peak force, force-displacement, peak...Flesh simulation. The soft tissue mesh in the upper neck was highly distorted at 21.2 ms (right) compared to the original mesh (left...a realistic response with results comparable to physical experiments to support future efforts to evaluate BABT. 2. Methods 2.1 Review of

Cortical Substrate of Haptic Representation

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-24

experience and data from primates , we have developed computational models of short-term active memory. Such models may have technological interest...neurobiological work on primate memory. It is on that empirical work that our current theoretical efforts are 5 founded. Our future physiological research...Academy of Sciences, New York, vol. 608, pp. 318-329, 1990. J.M. Fuster - Behavioral electrophysiology of the prefrontal cortex of the primate . Progress

Future Expectations, Attitude Toward Violence, and Bullying Perpetration During Early Adolescence: A Mediation Evaluation.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Varela, Jorge J; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-01-01

Hopeful future expectations have been linked to positive developmental outcomes in adolescence; however, the association between future expectations and bullying perpetration has received less attention. We examined the relationship between future expectations and physical and relational bullying perpetration and tested a mediation model that linked future expectations with bullying through attitude toward violence. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationship between future expectations and bullying perpetration (relational and physical) and to test whether these relationships were mediated by attitude toward violence in a sample of U.S. seventh-grade students (Mage = 12.86 years, N = 196, 60% female, 46% African American). Attitude toward violence fully mediated the relationship between future expectations and physical bullying (indirect effects = -0.08, 95% CI [-0.15, -0.01], R = .17). The relationship between future expectations and relational bullying was partially mediated by attitudes toward violence (indirect effects = -0.07, 95% CI [-0.14, -0.002], R = .20). Our findings suggest that future expectations can play a role in reducing attitude toward violence and physical and relational bullying perpetration among youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in bullying prevention efforts.

Modeling a constant power load for nickel-hydrogen battery testing using SPICE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bearden, Douglas B.; Lollar, Louis F.; Nelms, R. M.

1990-01-01

The effort to design and model a constant power load for the HST (Hubble Space Telescope) nickel-hydrogen battery tests is described. The constant power load was designed for three different simulations on the batteries: life cycling, reconditioning, and capacity testing. A dc-dc boost converter was designed to act as this constant power load. A boost converter design was chosen because of the low test battery voltage (4 to 6 VDC) generated and the relatively high power requirement of 60 to 70 W. The SPICE model was shown to consistently predict variations in the actual circuit as various designs were attempted. It is concluded that the confidence established in the SPICE model of the constant power load ensures its extensive utilization in future efforts to improve performance in the actual load circuit.

Department of Energy. Jobs and Innovation Accelerator Challenge (JIAC) Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riley, Jon

1.1 NCMS Digital Manufacturing Initiative The people and businesses of Southeast Michigan have long been known for their prowess in the automotive industry, a sector built on the innovation of the assembly line and the rise of mass production as a manufacturing model. Just as the assembly line was the key to a strong manufacturing base a century ago, a digital manufacturing infrastructure is critical to the future of industry. Economic uncertainty has slowed innovation, but access to cutting-edge tools such as high performance modeling, simulation and analysis (MSA) provides a bold path forward, ensuring global competitiveness and transforming ourmore » manufacturing processes. Digital manufacturing is, essentially, the virtualization of processes that had been physical. Many larger manufacturers have embraced it, but the majority of small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) have not. The Digital Manufacturing Initiative is a bold, national effort by the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences (NCMS) to put manufacturing innovation on fast forward, and bring the future of industry into the present. SMMs need a broader array of access options, training, support, and guidance. Providing access will supercharge any organization with tomorrow’s tools, as positively disruptive and potential-laden as the assembly line once was. Sustainable success in the State of Michigan requires the development of foundational infrastructure, the exploration of initial inroads with various manufacturers of all sizes, and the initiation of a prototype engagement mechanism applicable for other future regional efforts. To accomplish this NCMS leveraged complimen-tary State and Federal funding opportunities (shown in Figure 1) along with a coupled voice of industry market research study. A brief summary of each opportunity is found in Appendix A. At the heart of the Michigan effort was the development of an access portal (www.doitindigital.com) and the development of partnerships with local large manufacturers (OEMs) who could provide pull to encourage SMMs (current and future suppliers) to participate. Central to this entire effort was the opportunity that this Final Report documents corresponding to the specific tasks associated with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded component of the InnoState Jobs Innovation Accelerator Challenge (JIAC) Program.« less

Q&A: How do gene regulatory networks control environmental responses in plants?

PubMed

Sun, Ying; Dinneny, José R

2018-04-11

A gene regulatory network (GRN) describes the hierarchical relationship between transcription factors, associated proteins, and their target genes. Studying GRNs allows us to understand how a plant's genotype and environment are integrated to regulate downstream physiological responses. Current efforts in plants have focused on defining the GRNs that regulate functions such as development and stress response and have been performed primarily in genetically tractable model plant species such as Arabidopsis thaliana. Future studies will likely focus on how GRNs function in non-model plants and change over evolutionary time to allow for adaptation to extreme environments. This broader understanding will inform efforts to engineer GRNs to create tailored crop traits.

Enhancing Cultural and Contextual Intervention Strategies to Reduce HIV/AIDS Among African Americans

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

I describe 4 protective strategies that African Americans employ that may challenge current HIV prevention efforts: (1) an adaptive duality that protects identity, (2) personal control influenced by external factors, (3) long-established indirect communication patterns, and (4) a mistrust of “outsiders.” I propose the Sexual Health Model as a conceptual framework for HIV prevention interventions because it incorporates established adaptive coping strategies into new HIV-related protective skills. The Sexual Health Model promotes interconnectedness, sexual ownership, and body awareness, 3 concepts that represent the context of the African American historical and cultural experience and that enhance rather than contradict future prevention efforts. PMID:19762666

Goals and Status of the NASA Juncture Flow Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, Christopher L.; Morrison, Joseph H.

2016-01-01

The NASA Juncture Flow experiment is a new effort whose focus is attaining validation data in the juncture region of a wing-body configuration. The experiment is designed specifically for the purpose of CFD validation. Current turbulence models routinely employed by Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD are inconsistent in their prediction of corner flow separation in aircraft juncture regions, so experimental data in the near-wall region of such a configuration will be useful both for assessment as well as for turbulence model improvement. This paper summarizes the Juncture Flow effort to date, including preliminary risk-reduction experiments already conducted and planned future experiments. The requirements and challenges associated with conducting a quality validation test are discussed.

Psychosocial work environment and well-being: a cross-sectional study at a thermal power plant in China.

PubMed

Yu, Shanfa; Gu, Guizhen; Zhou, Wenhui; Wang, Sheng

2008-01-01

To investigate the effects of the job demand-control (DC) model and the effort-reward imbalance (ERI) model on worker's well-being, self-reports for psychosocial work conditions and well-being were made by a sample of 878 workers at a thermal power plant in China using the main dimensions of DC and ERI questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were employed controlling for age, gender, and educational level, and negative and positive affection among others. Workers reporting high job demands and low job control or high efforts and low rewards had elevated risks of job dissatisfaction, psychosomatic complaints and depressive symptoms. Odds ratios were generally higher in workers reporting both high efforts and low rewards. Furthermore, low reward proved to be a stronger predictor of poor well-being when both job stress models were simultaneously adjusted. To some extent, interaction effects were found for social support, but no interaction effects were found for overcommitment. The findings indicate independent effects of both the DC model and the ERI model on well-being. Future work should explore the combined effects of these two models of psychosocial stress at work on health more thoroughly.

Design, fabrication and test of a trace contaminant control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A trace contaminant control system was designed, fabricated, and evaluated to determine suitability of the system concept to future manned spacecraft. Two different models were considered. The load model initially required by the contract was based on the Space Station Prototype (SSP) general specifications SVSK HS4655, reflecting a change from a 9 man crew to a 6 man crew of the model developed in previous phases of this effort. Trade studies and a system preliminary design were accomplished based on this contaminant load, including computer analyses to define the optimum system configuration in terms of component arrangements, flow rates and component sizing. At the completion of the preliminary design effort a revised contaminant load model was developed for the SSP. Additional analyses were then conducted to define the impact of this new contaminant load model on the system configuration. A full scale foam-core mock-up with the appropriate SSP system interfaces was also fabricated.

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

2016-01-28

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When combined, the ecosystem services modeling capabilities of InVEST and the process-based abilities of the APEX model should provide complementary information needed to meet USDA and the Department of the Interior information needs.

Observations on Leadership, Problem Solving, and Preferred Futures of Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puncochar, Judith

2013-01-01

A focus on enrollments, rankings, uncertain budgets, and branding efforts to operate universities could have serious implications for discussions of sustainable solutions to complex problems and the decision-making processes of leaders. The Authentic Leadership Model for framing ill-defined problems in higher education is posited to improve the…

The Social Change Model as Pedagogy: Examining Undergraduate Leadership Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buschlen, Eric; Dvorak, Robert

2011-01-01

Understanding whether leadership can be learned is important as many colleges and universities attempt to develop future leaders through a variety of programmatic efforts. Historic leadership research argues leadership is an innate skill. While contemporary leadership research tends to argue that leadership can be learned. The purpose of this…

Preparing Current and Future Practitioners to Integrate Research in Real Practice Settings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thyer, Bruce A.

2015-01-01

Past efforts aimed at promoting a better integration between research and practice are reviewed. These include the empirical clinical practice movement (ECP), originating within social work; the empirically supported treatment (EST) initiative of clinical psychology; and the evidence-based practice (EBP) model developed within medicine. The…

Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model

EPA Science Inventory

As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARK...

Modeling and Analysis of Power Processing Systems (MAPPS), initial phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Y.; Lee, F. C.; Wangenheim, H.; Warren, D.

1977-01-01

The overall objective of the program is to provide the engineering tools to reduce the analysis, design, and development effort, and thus the cost, in achieving the required performances for switching regulators and dc-dc converter systems. The program was both tutorial and application oriented. Various analytical methods were described in detail and supplemented with examples, and those with standardization appeals were reduced into computer-based subprograms. Major program efforts included those concerning small and large signal control-dependent performance analysis and simulation, control circuit design, power circuit design and optimization, system configuration study, and system performance simulation. Techniques including discrete time domain, conventional frequency domain, Lagrange multiplier, nonlinear programming, and control design synthesis were employed in these efforts. To enhance interactive conversation between the modeling and analysis subprograms and the user, a working prototype of the Data Management Program was also developed to facilitate expansion as future subprogram capabilities increase.

Changing patterns of wildlife diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLean, R.G.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this paper was not to analyze the effects of global warming on wildlife disease patterns, but to serve as a springboard for future efforts to identify those wildlife diseases, including zoonotic diseases, that could be influenced the most by warming climates and to encourage the development of models to examine the potential effects. Hales et al. (1999) examined the relationship of the incidence of a vector-borne human disease, Dengue fever, and El Nino southern oscillations for South Pacific Island nations. The development of similar models on specific wildlife diseases which have environmental factors strongly associated with transmission would provide information and options for the future management of our wildlife resources.

Integrated Modeling and Decision-Support System for Water Management in the Puget Sound Basin: Snow Caps to White Caps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Yang, Zhaoqing; Voisin, Nathalie

2013-12-01

Final Report for the EPA-sponsored project Snow Caps to White Caps that provides data products and insight for water resource managers to support their predictions and management actions to address future changes in water resources (fresh and marine) in the Puget Sound basin. This report details the efforts of a team of scientists and engineers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington (UW) to examine the movement of water in the Snohomish Basin, within the watershed and the estuary, under present and future conditions, using a set of linked numerical models.

Repurposing Waste Streams: Lessons on Integrating Hospital Food Waste into a Community Garden.

PubMed

Galvan, Adri M; Hanson, Ryan; George, Daniel R

2018-04-06

There have been increasing efforts in recent decades to divert institutional food waste into composting programs. As major producers of food waste who must increasingly demonstrate community benefit, hospitals have an incentive to develop such programs. In this article, we explain the emerging opportunity to link hospitals' food services to local community gardens in order to implement robust composting programs. We describe a partnership model at our hospital in central Pennsylvania, share preliminary outcomes establishing feasibility, and offer guidance for future efforts. We also demonstrate that the integration of medical students in such efforts can foster systems thinking in the development of programs to manage hospital waste streams in more ecologically-friendly ways.

Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Khavjou, Olga A; Thompson, Hope; Trogdon, Justin G; Pan, Liping; Sherry, Bettylou; Dietz, William

2012-06-01

Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts. The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence. Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion. The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Hit Generation in TB Drug Discovery: From Genome to Granuloma

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Current tuberculosis (TB) drug development efforts are not sufficient to end the global TB epidemic. Recent efforts have focused on the development of whole-cell screening assays because biochemical, target-based inhibitor screens during the last two decades have not delivered new TB drugs. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of TB, encounters diverse microenvironments and can be found in a variety of metabolic states in the human host. Due to the complexity and heterogeneity of Mtb infection, no single model can fully recapitulate the in vivo conditions in which Mtb is found in TB patients, and there is no single “standard” screening condition to generate hit compounds for TB drug development. However, current screening assays have become more sophisticated as researchers attempt to mirror the complexity of TB disease in the laboratory. In this review, we describe efforts using surrogates and engineered strains of Mtb to focus screens on specific targets. We explain model culture systems ranging from carbon starvation to hypoxia, and combinations thereof, designed to represent the microenvironment which Mtb encounters in the human body. We outline ongoing efforts to model Mtb infection in the lung granuloma. We assess these different models, their ability to generate hit compounds, and needs for further TB drug development, to provide direction for future TB drug discovery. PMID:29384369

Quantitative computational models of molecular self-assembly in systems biology

PubMed Central

Thomas, Marcus; Schwartz, Russell

2017-01-01

Molecular self-assembly is the dominant form of chemical reaction in living systems, yet efforts at systems biology modeling are only beginning to appreciate the need for and challenges to accurate quantitative modeling of self-assembly. Self-assembly reactions are essential to nearly every important process in cell and molecular biology and handling them is thus a necessary step in building comprehensive models of complex cellular systems. They present exceptional challenges, however, to standard methods for simulating complex systems. While the general systems biology world is just beginning to deal with these challenges, there is an extensive literature dealing with them for more specialized self-assembly modeling. This review will examine the challenges of self-assembly modeling, nascent efforts to deal with these challenges in the systems modeling community, and some of the solutions offered in prior work on self-assembly specifically. The review concludes with some consideration of the likely role of self-assembly in the future of complex biological system models more generally. PMID:28535149

Quantitative computational models of molecular self-assembly in systems biology.

PubMed

Thomas, Marcus; Schwartz, Russell

2017-05-23

Molecular self-assembly is the dominant form of chemical reaction in living systems, yet efforts at systems biology modeling are only beginning to appreciate the need for and challenges to accurate quantitative modeling of self-assembly. Self-assembly reactions are essential to nearly every important process in cell and molecular biology and handling them is thus a necessary step in building comprehensive models of complex cellular systems. They present exceptional challenges, however, to standard methods for simulating complex systems. While the general systems biology world is just beginning to deal with these challenges, there is an extensive literature dealing with them for more specialized self-assembly modeling. This review will examine the challenges of self-assembly modeling, nascent efforts to deal with these challenges in the systems modeling community, and some of the solutions offered in prior work on self-assembly specifically. The review concludes with some consideration of the likely role of self-assembly in the future of complex biological system models more generally.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

Practical (?) considerations for implementing assisted migration strategies for trees in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenney, D.; Pedlar, J.

2011-12-01

Climate is one of the major influences on forests and much effort has gone into projecting the impacts of rapid climate change on forest distribution and productivity. Such efforts are premised on the notion that the current generation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide reasonably accurate representations of future climate. But what is the appropriate level of faith to put in these projections when making relatively fine-scale resource management decisions such as the movement of plant genetic material? In this talk we review recent outcomes of climate envelope models for North American tree species that suggest optimal climate regimes could move on average ~700km within the next 100 years. Newer generation GCMs seem to confirm these results but much uncertainty remains for practical decision-making. Despite these uncertainties, assisted migration has been suggested as a climate change adaptation tool wherein populations of trees are moved up to a few hundred kilometers north (or a few hundred meters upslope) to keep pace with the anticipated changes in optimal climate regimes. A continent-wide web based tool (SEEDWHERE) is presented, which assists in identifying appropriate translocation distances for assisted migration initiatives. We finish with some suggestions for future work on the topic of forest regeneration decisions under an evolving and uncertain future climate.

Estimating benefits of past, current, and future reductions in smoking rates using a comprehensive model with competing causes of death.

PubMed

van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E

2012-01-01

Despite years of declining smoking prevalence, tobacco use is still the leading preventable contributor to illness and death in the United States, and the effect of past tobacco-use control efforts has not fully translated into improvements in health outcomes. The objective of this study was to use a life course model with multiple competing causes of death to elucidate the ongoing benefits of tobacco-use control efforts on US death rates. We used a continuous-time life course simulation model for the US population. We modeled smoking initiation and cessation and 20 leading causes of death as competing risks over the life span, with the risk of death for each cause dependent on past and current smoking status. Risk parameters were estimated using data from the National Health Interview Survey that were linked to follow-up mortality data. Up to 14% (9% for men, 14% for women) of the total gain in life expectancy since 1960 was due to tobacco-use control efforts. Past efforts are expected to further increase life expectancy by 0.9 years for women and 1.3 years for men. Additional reduction in smoking prevalence may eventually yield an average 3.4-year increase in life expectancy in the United States. Coronary heart disease is expected to increase as a share of total deaths. A dynamic individual-level model with multiple causes of death supports assessment of the delayed benefits of improved tobacco-use control efforts. We show that past smoking reduction efforts will translate into further increases in life expectancy in the coming years. Smoking will remain a major contributor to preventable illness and death, worthy of continued interventions.

Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

2017-03-01

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, focusing on (1) data availability and accuracy of early forecasts; (2) the ability of different models to capture the profile of early growth dynamics in local outbreaks and the importance of reactive behavior changes and case clustering; (3) challenges in forecasting the long-term epidemic impact very early in the outbreak; and (4) ways to move forward. We conclude that rapid availability of aggregated population-level data and detailed information on a subset of transmission chains is crucial to characterize transmission patterns, while ensemble-forecasting approaches could limit the uncertainty of any individual model. We believe that coordinated forecasting efforts, combined with rapid dissemination of disease predictions and underlying epidemiological data in shared online platforms, will be critical in optimizing the response to current and future infectious disease emergencies.

Using a cloud to replenish parched groundwater modeling efforts.

PubMed

Hunt, Randall J; Luchette, Joseph; Schreuder, Willem A; Rumbaugh, James O; Doherty, John; Tonkin, Matthew J; Rumbaugh, Douglas B

2010-01-01

Groundwater models can be improved by introduction of additional parameter flexibility and simultaneous use of soft-knowledge. However, these sophisticated approaches have high computational requirements. Cloud computing provides unprecedented access to computing power via the Internet to facilitate the use of these techniques. A modeler can create, launch, and terminate "virtual" computers as needed, paying by the hour, and save machine images for future use. Such cost-effective and flexible computing power empowers groundwater modelers to routinely perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ways not previously possible.

Using a cloud to replenish parched groundwater modeling efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Luchette, Joseph; Schreuder, Willem A.; Rumbaugh, James O.; Doherty, John; Tonkin, Matthew J.; Rumbaugh, Douglas B.

2010-01-01

Groundwater models can be improved by introduction of additional parameter flexibility and simultaneous use of soft-knowledge. However, these sophisticated approaches have high computational requirements. Cloud computing provides unprecedented access to computing power via the Internet to facilitate the use of these techniques. A modeler can create, launch, and terminate “virtual” computers as needed, paying by the hour, and save machine images for future use. Such cost-effective and flexible computing power empowers groundwater modelers to routinely perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ways not previously possible.

Proton-Exchange-Membrane Fuel Cell Powerplants Developed and Tested for Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoberecht, Mark A.; Pham, Nang T.

2005-01-01

Proton-exchange-membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology has received major attention for terrestrial applications, such as the automotive and residential markets, for the past 20 years. This attention has significantly advanced the maturity of the technology, resulting in ever more compact, efficient, reliable, and inexpensive PEMFC designs. In comparison to the terrestrial operating environment, the space operating environment is much more demanding. Microgravity to high-gravity loads and the need to use pure oxygen (rather than air) as the fuel cell oxidizer place more stringent demands on PEMFC technology. NASA and its partners from industry are leveraging terrestrial PEMFC advancements by conducting parallel space technology development for future exploration missions. A team from the NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Johnson Space Center, and NASA Kennedy Space Center recently completed the first phase of a PEMFC powerplant development effort for exploration missions. The industry partners for this phase of the development effort were ElectroChem, Inc., and Teledyne Energy Systems, Inc. Under contract to Glenn, both of these industry partners successfully designed, fabricated, and tested a breadboard PEMFC powerplant in the 1- to 5-kW power range. These powerplants were based on existing company-proprietary fuel cell stack designs, combined with off-the-shelf components, which formed the balance of the powerplant design. Subsequent to the contractor development efforts, both powerplants were independently tested at Johnson to verify operational and performance characteristics, and to determine suitability for further technology development in the second phase of the NASA-led effort. Following the independent NASA testing, Teledyne Energy Systems, Inc., was selected to develop an engineering model PEMFC powerplant. This effort was initiated by the 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program Office in 2001; it transitioned to the Next Generation Launch Technologies (NGLT) Program Office in 2003. The effort is now being funded by the Exploration Program Office. We plan to summarize the results from the ongoing engineering model PEMFC powerplant development in a future Research & Technology article.

Proton-Exchange-Membrane Fuel Cell Powerplants Developed and Tested for Exploration Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoberecht, Mark A.; Pham, Nang T.

2005-06-01

Proton-exchange-membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology has received major attention for terrestrial applications, such as the automotive and residential markets, for the past 20 years. This attention has significantly advanced the maturity of the technology, resulting in ever more compact, efficient, reliable, and inexpensive PEMFC designs. In comparison to the terrestrial operating environment, the space operating environment is much more demanding. Microgravity to high-gravity loads and the need to use pure oxygen (rather than air) as the fuel cell oxidizer place more stringent demands on PEMFC technology. NASA and its partners from industry are leveraging terrestrial PEMFC advancements by conducting parallel space technology development for future exploration missions. A team from the NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Johnson Space Center, and NASA Kennedy Space Center recently completed the first phase of a PEMFC powerplant development effort for exploration missions. The industry partners for this phase of the development effort were ElectroChem, Inc., and Teledyne Energy Systems, Inc. Under contract to Glenn, both of these industry partners successfully designed, fabricated, and tested a breadboard PEMFC powerplant in the 1- to 5-kW power range. These powerplants were based on existing company-proprietary fuel cell stack designs, combined with off-the-shelf components, which formed the balance of the powerplant design. Subsequent to the contractor development efforts, both powerplants were independently tested at Johnson to verify operational and performance characteristics, and to determine suitability for further technology development in the second phase of the NASA-led effort. Following the independent NASA testing, Teledyne Energy Systems, Inc., was selected to develop an engineering model PEMFC powerplant. This effort was initiated by the 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program Office in 2001; it transitioned to the Next Generation Launch Technologies (NGLT) Program Office in 2003. The effort is now being funded by the Exploration Program Office. We plan to summarize the results from the ongoing engineering model PEMFC powerplant development in a future Research & Technology article.

Modeling ozone episodes in the Baltimore-Washington region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, William F.

1994-01-01

Surface ozone (O3) concentrations in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) continue to occur in metropolitan areas in the United States despite efforts to control emissions of O3 precursors. Future O3 control strategies will be based on results from modeling efforts that have just begun in many areas. Two initial questions that arise are model sensitivity to domain-specific conditions and the selection of episodes for model evaluation and control strategy development. For the Baltimore-Washington region (B-W), the presence of the Chesapeake Bay introduces a number of issues relevant to model sensitivity. In this paper, the specific questions of the determination of model volume (mixing height) for the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) is discussed and various alternative methods compared. For the latter question, several analytic approaches, Cluster Analysis and classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis are undertaken to determine meteorological conditions associated with severe O3 events in the B-W domain.

Design and Analysis Tools for Supersonic Inlets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, John W.; Folk, Thomas C.

2009-01-01

Computational tools are being developed for the design and analysis of supersonic inlets. The objective is to update existing tools and provide design and low-order aerodynamic analysis capability for advanced inlet concepts. The Inlet Tools effort includes aspects of creating an electronic database of inlet design information, a document describing inlet design and analysis methods, a geometry model for describing the shape of inlets, and computer tools that implement the geometry model and methods. The geometry model has a set of basic inlet shapes that include pitot, two-dimensional, axisymmetric, and stream-traced inlet shapes. The inlet model divides the inlet flow field into parts that facilitate the design and analysis methods. The inlet geometry model constructs the inlet surfaces through the generation and transformation of planar entities based on key inlet design factors. Future efforts will focus on developing the inlet geometry model, the inlet design and analysis methods, a Fortran 95 code to implement the model and methods. Other computational platforms, such as Java, will also be explored.

A residency clinic chronic condition management quality improvement project.

PubMed

Halverson, Larry W; Sontheimer, Dan; Duvall, Sharon

2007-02-01

Quality improvement in chronic disease management is a major agenda for improving health and reducing health care costs. A six-component chronic disease management model can help guide this effort. Several characteristics of the "new model" of family medicine described by the Future of Family Medicine (FFM) Project Leadership Committee are promulgated to foster practice changes that improve quality. Our objective was to implement and assess a quality improvement project guided by the components of a chronic disease management model and FFM new model characteristics. Diabetes was selected as a model chronic disease focus. Multiple practice changes were implemented. A mature electronic medical record facilitated data collection and measurement of quality improvement progress. Data from the diabetes registry demonstrates that our efforts have been effective. Significant improvement occurred in five out of six quality indicators. Multidisciplinary teamwork in a model residency practice guided by chronic disease management principles and the FFM new model characteristics can produce significant management improvements in one important chronic disease.

Peer-to-peer communication, cancer prevention, and the internet

PubMed Central

Ancker, Jessica S.; Carpenter, Kristen M.; Greene, Paul; Hoffmann, Randi; Kukafka, Rita; Marlow, Laura A.V.; Prigerson, Holly G.; Quillin, John M.

2013-01-01

Online communication among patients and consumers through support groups, discussion boards, and knowledge resources is becoming more common. In this paper, we discuss key methods through which such web-based peer-to-peer communication may affect health promotion and disease prevention behavior (exchanges of information, emotional and instrumental support, and establishment of group norms and models). We also discuss several theoretical models for studying online peer communication, including social theory, health communication models, and health behavior models. Although online peer communication about health and disease is very common, research evaluating effects on health behaviors, mediators, and outcomes is still relatively sparse. We suggest that future research in this field should include formative evaluation and studies of effects on mediators of behavior change, behaviors, and outcomes. It will also be important to examine spontaneously emerging peer communication efforts to see how they can be integrated with theory-based efforts initiated by researchers. PMID:19449267

A Characterization of Individual Differences in Prospective Memory Monitoring Using the Complex Ongoing Serial Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savine, Adam C.; McDaniel, Mark A.; Shelton, Jill Talley; Scullin, Michael K.

2012-01-01

Prospective memory--remembering to retrieve and execute future goals--is essential to daily life. Prospective remembering is often achieved through effortful monitoring; however, potential individual differences in monitoring patterns have not been characterized. We propose 3 candidate models to characterize the individual differences present in…

Mathematical and Numerical Studies of Nonstandard Difference Equation Models of Differential Equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mickens, Ronald E.

2008-12-22

This research examined the following items/issues: the NSFD methodology, technical achievements and applications, dissemination efforts and research related professional activities. Also a list of unresolved issues were identified that could form the basis for future research in the area of constructing and analyzing NSFD schemes for both ODE's and PDE's.

Cityworks: A Strategic Planning Model for Workforce Education and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

City Coll. of San Francisco, CA.

In an effort to become more responsive to students' needs regarding the current and future labor market, California's City College of San Francisco (CCSF) developed "CityWorks," a strategic plan for workforce education and training. This report provides background to the development of CityWorks and describes key goals and strategies.…

Assessing Empowerment at HSIs: An Adapted Inputs-Environments-Outcomes Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuellar, Marcela G.; Segundo, Vanessa; Muñoz, Yvonne

2017-01-01

Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSIs) play a critical role in advancing postsecondary access and success for Latinx students. Scholarship has begun to examine how HSIs influence Latinx student experiences and outcomes, yet much remains to be explored. In an effort to inform future research of Latinx students at HSIs, we argue that student…

Does Educational Level Matter in Adopting Online Education? A Malaysian Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haghshenas, Hanif; Chatroudi, Ehsan Aminaei; Njeje, Fredy Anthony

2012-01-01

Having applied Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to predict intention and future usage behavior, the moderating effect of educational level was added to the model in moderating the relationship between variables. Also, despite past studies, Effort Expectancy had a higher beta than Performance Expectancy, while Social…

Arguments for a Common Set of Principles for Collaborative Inquiry in Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cousins, J. Bradley; Whitmore, Elizabeth; Shulha, Lyn

2013-01-01

In this article, we critique two recent theoretical developments about collaborative inquiry in evaluation--using logic models as a means to understand theory, and efforts to compartmentalize versions of collaborative inquiry into discrete genres--as a basis for considering future direction for the field. We argue that collaborative inquiry in…

Creative Thinking Processes: The Past and the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mumford, Michael D.; McIntosh, Tristan

2017-01-01

For more than one hundred years, students of creativity, including seminal efforts published in the "Journal of Creative Behavior," have sought to identify the key processes people must execute to produce creative problem solutions. In recent years, we have seen a consensual model of key creative thinking processes being accepted by the…

Preparing Middle Grades Educators to Teach about World Cultures: An Interdisciplinary Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reidel, Michelle; Draper, Christine

2013-01-01

With the realities of standards-based accountability, it is imperative to model and demonstrate for students how subject areas and teaching methods transcend across traditional boundaries. In an effort to prepare future social studies educators to teach for global awareness and to meaningfully integrate critical literacy skills into their…

Psychosocial work environment and the risk of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Peter, R; Siegrist, J

2000-06-01

Remarkable changes in the working situation have led to the increasing importance of psychomentally and socio-emotionally demanding conditions at work. With the help of theoretical models, those highly prevalent psychosocial work environments were conceptualized which influence the risk of coronary heart disease by enhanced activation of the autonomic nervous system. One of the most prominent theoretical approaches, the job strain model, and a more recent approach, the effort-reward imbalance model, are discussed in the paper. Findings from prospective and cross-sectional studies indicate that job strain and effort-reward imbalance at work define specific conditions of chronic work stress that are associated with an elevated risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Respective multivariate odds-ratios range from 1.2 to 5.0 with respect to job strain, and from 1.5 to 6.1 with respect to effort-reward imbalance. These associations are explained neither by established behavioral or biomedical risk factors nor by physical and chemical hazards at work, rather they define independent, new work-related risk conditions. There is additional evidence that effort-reward imbalance may mediate the association of some traditional occupational exposures, such as shift work, with cardiovascular risk: in a cross-sectional study, prevalence odds ratios of hypertension and atherogenic lipids attributable to effort-reward imbalance were relatively highest among shiftworkers as compared to daytime workers. Preliminary results from intervention programs based on the theoretical models document favorable effects on health. Information derived from theoretical models on psychosocial work environment may help to better identify populations at risk and to develop and apply specific, theory-guided preventive activities in the future.

Detection and rapid recovery of the Sutter's Mill meteorite fall as a model for future recoveries worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, Marc; Le Corre, Lucille; Hankey, Mike; Fries, Jeff; Matson, Robert; Schaefer, Jake; Reddy, Vishnu

2014-11-01

The Sutter's Mill C-type meteorite fall occurred on 22 April 2012 in and around the town of Coloma, California. The exact location of the meteorite fall was determined within hours of the event using a combination of eyewitness reports, weather radar imagery, and seismometry data. Recovery of the first meteorites occurred within 2 days and continued for months afterward. The recovery effort included local citizens, scientists, and meteorite hunters, and featured coordination efforts by local scientific institutions. Scientific analysis of the collected meteorites revealed characteristics that were available for study only because the rapid collection of samples had minimized terrestrial contamination/alteration. This combination of factors—rapid and accurate location of the event, participation in the meteorite search by the public, and coordinated scientific investigation of recovered samples—is a model that was widely beneficial and should be emulated in future meteorite falls. The tools necessary to recreate the Sutter's Mill recovery are available, but are currently underutilized in much of the world. Weather radar networks, scientific institutions with interest in meteoritics, and the interested public are available globally. Therefore, it is possible to repeat the Sutter's Mill recovery model for future meteorite falls around the world, each for relatively little cost with a dedicated researcher. Doing so will significantly increase the number of fresh meteorite falls available for study, provide meteorite material that can serve as the nuclei of new meteorite collections, and will improve the public visibility of meteoritics research.

Application of laser scanning technique in earthquake protection of Istanbul's historical heritage buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çaktı, Eser; Ercan, Tülay; Dar, Emrullah

2017-04-01

Istanbul's vast historical and cultural heritage is under constant threat of earthquakes. Historical records report repeated damages to the city's landmark buildings. Our efforts towards earthquake protection of several buildings in Istanbul involve earthquake monitoring via structural health monitoring systems, linear and non-linear structural modelling and analysis in search of past and future earthquake performance, shake-table testing of scaled models and non-destructive testing. More recently we have been using laser technology in monitoring structural deformations and damage in five monumental buildings which are Hagia Sophia Museum and Fatih, Sultanahmet, Süleymaniye and Mihrimah Sultan Mosques. This presentation is about these efforts with special emphasis on the use of laser scanning in monitoring of edifices.

On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J.; Hand, Michael S.

2005-04-01

Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economicmore » principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.« less

Practical Use of Computationally Frugal Model Analysis Methods

DOE PAGES

Hill, Mary C.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn; ...

2015-03-21

Computationally frugal methods of model analysis can provide substantial benefits when developing models of groundwater and other environmental systems. Model analysis includes ways to evaluate model adequacy and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Frugal methods typically require 10s of parallelizable model runs; their convenience allows for other uses of the computational effort. We suggest that model analysis be posed as a set of questions used to organize methods that range from frugal to expensive (requiring 10,000 model runs or more). This encourages focus on method utility, even when methods have starkly different theoretical backgrounds. We note that many frugalmore » methods are more useful when unrealistic process-model nonlinearities are reduced. Inexpensive diagnostics are identified for determining when frugal methods are advantageous. Examples from the literature are used to demonstrate local methods and the diagnostics. We suggest that the greater use of computationally frugal model analysis methods would allow questions such as those posed in this work to be addressed more routinely, allowing the environmental sciences community to obtain greater scientific insight from the many ongoing and future modeling efforts« less

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

PubMed Central

Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.; Alexander, John D.; Wiens, John A.; Root, Terry L.

2009-01-01

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages. PMID:19724641

Society of Gynecologic Oncology Future of Physician Payment Reform Task Force report: The Endometrial Cancer Alternative Payment Model (ECAP).

PubMed

Ko, Emily M; Havrilesky, Laura J; Alvarez, Ronald D; Zivanovic, Oliver; Boyd, Leslie R; Jewell, Elizabeth L; Timmins, Patrick F; Gibb, Randall S; Jhingran, Anuja; Cohn, David E; Dowdy, Sean C; Powell, Matthew A; Chalas, Eva; Huang, Yongmei; Rathbun, Jill; Wright, Jason D

2018-05-01

Health care in the United States is in the midst of a significant transformation from a "fee for service" to a "fee for value" based model. The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 has only accelerated this transition. Anticipating these reforms, the Society of Gynecologic Oncology developed the Future of Physician Payment Reform Task Force (PPRTF) in 2015 to develop strategies to ensure fair value based reimbursement policies for gynecologic cancer care. The PPRTF elected as a first task to develop an Alternative Payment Model for thesurgical management of low risk endometrial cancer. The history, rationale, and conceptual framework for the development of an Endometrial Cancer Alternative Payment Model are described in this white paper, as well as directions forfuture efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model-Based Verification and Validation of the SMAP Uplink Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khan, M. Omair; Dubos, Gregory F.; Tirona, Joseph; Standley, Shaun

2013-01-01

This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V&V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process.Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based V&V development efforts.

Development of a Turbofan Engine Simulation in a Graphical Simulation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Khary I.; Guo, Ten-Heui

2003-01-01

This paper presents the development of a generic component level model of a turbofan engine simulation with a digital controller, in an advanced graphical simulation environment. The goal of this effort is to develop and demonstrate a flexible simulation platform for future research in propulsion system control and diagnostic technology. A previously validated FORTRAN-based model of a modern, high-performance, military-type turbofan engine is being used to validate the platform development. The implementation process required the development of various innovative procedures, which are discussed in the paper. Open-loop and closed-loop comparisons are made between the two simulations. Future enhancements that are to be made to the modular engine simulation are summarized.

Modelling structural and plasma facing materials for fusion power plants: Recent advances and outstanding issues in the EURATOM fusion materials programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutard, Jean-Louis; Dudarev, Sergei; Rieth, Michael

2011-10-01

EFDA Fusion Materials Topical Group was established at the end of 2007 to coordinate the EU effort on the development of structural and protection materials able to withstand the very demanding operating conditions of a future DEMO power plant. Focusing on a selection of well identified materials issues, including the behaviour of Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic steels, and W-alloys under the foreseen operation conditions in a future DEMO, this paper describes recent advances in physical modelling and experimental validation, contributing to the definition of chemical composition and microstructure of materials with improved in-service stability at high temperature, high neutron flux and intense ion bombardment.

Providing a Theoretical Basis for Nanotoxicity Risk Analysis Departing from Traditional Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

estimation of total exposure at any toxicological endpoint in the body. This effort is a significant contribution as it highlights future research needs...rigorous modeling of the nanoparticle transport by including physico-chemical properties of engineered particles. Similarly, toxicological dose-response...exposure risks as compared to larger sized particles of the same material. Although the toxicology of a base material may be thoroughly defined, the

Life modeling of thermal barrier coatings for aircraft gas turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. A.

1989-01-01

Thermal barrier coating life models developed under the NASA Lewis Research Center's Hot Section Technology (HOST) Program are summarized. An initial laboratory model and three design-capable models are discussed. Current understanding of coating failure mechanisms are also summarized. The materials and structural aspects of thermal barrier coatings have been successfully integrated under the HOST program to produce models which may now or in the near future be used in design. Efforts on this program continue at Pratt and Whitney Aircraft where their model is being extended to the life prediction of physical vapor deposited thermal barrier coatings.

Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.

Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

DOE PAGES

Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; ...

2015-08-01

Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

Consistency and Main Differences Between European Regional Climate Downscaling Intercomparison Results; From PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES to CORDEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, J. H.; Larsen, M. A. D.; Christensen, O. B.; Drews, M.

2017-12-01

For more than 20 years, coordinated efforts to apply regional climate models to downscale GCM simulations for Europe have been pursued by an ever increasing group of scientists. This endeavor showed its first results during EU framework supported projects such as RACCS and MERCURE. Here, the foundation for today's advanced worldwide CORDEX approach was laid out by a core of six research teams, who conducted some of the first coordinated RCM simulations with the aim to assess regional climate change for Europe. However, it was realized at this stage that model bias in GCMs as well as RCMs made this task very challenging. As an immediate outcome, the idea was conceived to make an even more coordinated effort by constructing a well-defined and structured set of common simulations; this lead to the PRUDENCE project (2001-2004). Additional coordinated efforts involving ever increasing numbers of GCMs and RCMs followed in ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) and the ongoing Euro-CORDEX (officially commenced 2011) efforts. Along with the overall coordination, simulations have increased their standard resolution from 50km (PRUDENCE) to about 12km (Euro-CORDEX) and from time slice simulations (PRUDENCE) to transient experiments (ENSEMBLES and CORDEX); from one driving model and emission scenario (PRUDENCE) to several (Euro-CORDEX). So far, this wealth of simulations have been used to assess the potential impacts of future climate change in Europe providing a baseline change as defined by a multi-model mean change with associated uncertainties calculated from model spread in the ensemble. But how has the overall picture of state-of-the-art regional climate change projections changed over this period of almost two decades? Here we compare across scenarios, model resolutions and model vintage the results from PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and Euro-CORDEX. By appropriate scaling we identify robust findings about the projected future of European climate expressed by temperature and precipitation changes that confirm the basic findings of PRUDENCE. For parameters such as snow cover and soil moisture availability we also identify major new results, which illustrate that model improvements and higher resolution offer new, physically grounded, robust information that could not have been identified twenty years ago with the approach taken at that time

Space Suit Thermal Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Anthony B.; Nair, Satish S.; Miles, John B.; Iovine, John V.; Lin, Chin H.

1998-01-01

The present NASA space suit (the Shuttle EMU) is a self-contained environmental control system, providing life support, environmental protection, earth-like mobility, and communications. This study considers the thermal dynamics of the space suit as they relate to astronaut thermal comfort control. A detailed dynamic lumped capacitance thermal model of the present space suit is used to analyze the thermal dynamics of the suit with observations verified using experimental and flight data. Prior to using the model to define performance characteristics and limitations for the space suit, the model is first evaluated and improved. This evaluation includes determining the effect of various model parameters on model performance and quantifying various temperature prediction errors in terms of heat transfer and heat storage. The observations from this study are being utilized in two future design efforts, automatic thermal comfort control design for the present space suit and design of future space suit systems for Space Station, Lunar, and Martian missions.

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

2009-01-01

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

Modeling the Office of Science Ten Year FacilitiesPlan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Supinski, B R; Alam, S R; Bailey, D H

2009-05-27

The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort to the optimization of key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measuredmore » the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.« less

Modeling the Office of Science Ten Year Facilities Plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Supinski, Bronis R.; Alam, Sadaf; Bailey, David H.

2009-06-26

The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance ofmore » these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.« less

Modeling the Office of Science Ten Year Facilities Plan: The PERI Architecture Team

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Supinski, Bronis R.; Alam, Sadaf R; Bailey, David

2009-01-01

The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance ofmore » these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfilll our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.« less

Automated support for experience-based software management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valett, Jon D.

1992-01-01

To effectively manage a software development project, the software manager must have access to key information concerning a project's status. This information includes not only data relating to the project of interest, but also, the experience of past development efforts within the environment. This paper describes the concepts and functionality of a software management tool designed to provide this information. This tool, called the Software Management Environment (SME), enables the software manager to compare an ongoing development effort with previous efforts and with models of the 'typical' project within the environment, to predict future project status, to analyze a project's strengths and weaknesses, and to assess the project's quality. In order to provide these functions the tool utilizes a vast corporate memory that includes a data base of software metrics, a set of models and relationships that describe the software development environment, and a set of rules that capture other knowledge and experience of software managers within the environment. Integrating these major concepts into one software management tool, the SME is a model of the type of management tool needed for all software development organizations.

HIV/AIDS interventions in an aging U.S. population.

PubMed

Jacobson, Stephanie A

2011-05-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 25 percent of people living with HIV in the United States in 2006 were age 50 and older. HIV prevention for people over 50 is an important health concern, especially as the U.S. population grows older. Scholarly research has identified the need for HIV/AIDS interventions in the population of people over age 50, but few interventions have been established. The ecological perspective, which integrates intrapersonal, interpersonal, organizational, community, and policy factors, was used to review the current interventions and propose possible new HIV/AIDS prevention efforts for older adults. Intrapersonal interventions are often based on the health belief model. The precaution adoption process model was explored as an alternative intrapersonal theory for modeling prevention efforts. Community interventions using diffusion of innovations theory are fully explored, and new interventions are proposed as an option for preventing HIV/AIDS in older adults. An agenda for future research and interventions is proposed. Social workers will be at the forefront of the effort to prevent HIV/AIDS in older adults. They must accept this responsibility, propose interventions, and evaluate their effectiveness.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Modeling for Integrated Science Management and Resilient Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelhamer, M.; Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.

2014-01-01

Many physiological, environmental, and operational risks exist for crewmembers during spaceflight. An understanding of these risks from an integrated perspective is required to provide effective and efficient mitigations during future exploration missions that typically have stringent limitations on resources available, such as mass, power, and crew time. The Human Research Program (HRP) is in the early stages of developing collaborative modeling approaches for the purposes of managing its science portfolio in an integrated manner to support cross-disciplinary risk mitigation strategies and to enable resilient human and engineered systems in the spaceflight environment. In this talk, we will share ideas being explored from fields such as network science, complexity theory, and system-of-systems modeling. Initial work on tools to support these explorations will be discussed briefly, along with ideas for future efforts.

Identifying potential habitat for the endangered Aleutian shield fern using topographical characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Wolcott, Daniel M.; Chow, T. Edwin

2012-01-01

The Aleutian shield fern Polystichum aleuticum is endemic to the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska and is listed as endangered pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Despite numerous efforts to discover new populations of this species, only four known populations are documented to date, and information is needed to prioritize locations for future surveys. Therefore, we incorporated topographical habitat characteristics (elevation, slope, aspect, distance from coastline, and anthropogenic footprint) found at known Aleutian shield fern locations into a Geographical Information System (GIS) model to create a habitat suitability map for the entirety of the Andreaonof Islands. A total of 18 islands contained 489.26 km2 of highly suitable and moderately suitable habitat when weighting each factor equally. This study reports a habitat suitability map for the endangered Aleutian shield fern using topographical characteristics, which can be used to assist current and future recovery efforts for the species.

Urban tree-planting programs — A model for encouraging environmentally protective behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summit, Joshua; Sommer, Robert

Efforts to increase environmentally sound behaviors and practices have in the past often focussed on consciousness-raising and attitude change. Research indicates that such efforts are less effective than interventions designed to make environmentally sound behaviors easier to engage in, or to make personal advantages resulting from such behaviors more clear to individuals. Four nonprofit tree planting organizations were studied as examples of successful environmental interventions. From these studies, as well as a review of the literature, several principles underlying successful behavioral interventions are identified. Implications of these principles for future environmental programs are discussed.

Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johannesson, G

2010-03-17

Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that themore » average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.« less

An airline study of advanced technology requirements for advanced high speed commercial engines. 3: Propulsion system requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1973-01-01

The advanced technology requirements for an advanced high speed commercial transport engine are presented. The results of the phase 3 effort cover the requirements and objectives for future aircraft propulsion systems. These requirements reflect the results of the Task 1 and 2 efforts and serve as a baseline for future evaluations, specification development efforts, contract/purchase agreements, and operational plans for future subsonic commercial engines. This report is divided into five major sections: (1) management objectives for commercial propulsion systems, (2) performance requirements for commercial transport propulsion systems, (3) design criteria for future transport engines, (4) design requirements for powerplant packages, and (5) testing.

A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

2011-01-01

Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

California's Proposition 186: lessons from a single-payer health care reform ballot initiative campaign.

PubMed

Farey, K; Lingappa, V R

1996-01-01

Proposition 186 was an initiative on the November 1994 California ballot which proposed to establish a state single-payer health care program. Although Prop 186 was overwhelmingly defeated in the November 1994 election (73% No, 27% Yes), it accomplished many things. Model legislation was developed showing the feasibility of a specific single-payer program for California. It was placed on the ballot by an unprecedented volunteer signature-gathering effort and was the largest grassroots political campaign fund-raising effort in California history. A novel strategy for the discussion of complex issues through 1500 house parties was launched. Prop 186 was defeated by an insurance industry-led coalition with an anti-government message. Lessons for future efforts include increasing the size and duration of the grassroots organizing and educational effort, and decreasing reliance on conventional political campaign tactics and the mainstream media.

Prospective Cognition in Rats

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crystal, Jonathon D.

2012-01-01

Efforts to develop animal models of memory are critical for understanding the neural substrate of memory. Memory is essential for daily life and enables information to be stored and retrieved after seconds to years. The ability to remember episodes from the past is thought to be related to the ability to plan for the future. Here we focus on a…

Reduced substrate supply limits the temperature response of soil organic carbon decomposition

Treesearch

Cinzia Fissore; Christian P. Giardina; Randall K. Kolka

2013-01-01

Controls on the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC), especially the more stable fraction of SOC, remain poorly understood, with implications for confidence in efforts to model terrestrial C balance under future climate. We investigated the role of substrate supply in the temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition in laboratory incubations of coarse-...

A Collaborative Model for Teaching E-Resources: Northwestern University's Graduate Training Day

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lightman, Harriet; Reingold, Ruth N.

2005-01-01

The authors report on the planning, execution, and future of Northwestern University's Introduction to Electronic Resources/Humanities Computing Training Day, a mandatory one-day set of classes for first-year doctoral students in humanities disciplines. The project is a collaborative effort among the Office of the Dean of the Weinberg College of…

The effects of substrate supply on the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition

Treesearch

Cinzia Fissore; Christian P. Giardina; Randall K. Kolka

2013-01-01

Controls on the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC), especially the more stable fraction of SOC, remain poorly understood, with implications for confidence in efforts to model terrestrial C balance under future climate. We investigated the role of substrate supply in the temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition in laboratory incubations of coarse-...

Self-Regulatory Processes Mediating between Career Calling and Perceived Employability and Life Satisfaction in Emerging Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Praskova, Anna; Creed, Peter A.; Hood, Michelle

2015-01-01

We tested a cross-sectional, mediation model of career calling, in which career calling was associated positively with life satisfaction and perceptions of future employability, and these relationships were explained by the self-regulatory mechanisms of work effort, career strategies, and emotional regulation. Using a sample of 664 emerging adults…

Projecting carbon footprint of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions with the integrated farm system model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dairy farms are an important sector of Canadian agriculture, and there is an on-going effort to assess their environmental impact. In Canada, like many northern areas of the world, climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity. This will likely come along with changes in environme...

No-Excuses for Character: A Critique of Character Education in No-Excuses Charter Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dishon, Gideon; Goodman, Joan F.

2017-01-01

The "no-excuses" model of education has become one of the most prominent educational alternatives for urban youth. Recently, notable no-excuses charter schools have begun a concerted effort to develop students' character strengths, striving to increase their chances of future success. In this article, we situate the no-excuses approach…

Developing digital vegetation for central hardwood forest types: A case study from Leslie County, KY

Treesearch

Bo Song; Wei-lun Tsai; Chiao-ying Chou; Thomas M. Williams; William Conner; Brian J. Williams

2011-01-01

Digital vegetation is the computerized representation, with either virtual images or animations, of vegetation types and conditions based on current measurements or ecological models. Digital vegetation can be useful in evaluating past, present, or future land use; changes in vegetation linked to climate change; or restoration efforts. Digital vegetation can be...

Safety modelling and testing of lithium-ion batteries in electrified vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jie; Bae, Chulheung; Marcicki, James; Masias, Alvaro; Miller, Theodore

2018-04-01

To optimize the safety of batteries, it is important to understand their behaviours when subjected to abuse conditions. Most early efforts in battery safety modelling focused on either one battery cell or a single field of interest such as mechanical or thermal failure. These efforts may not completely reflect the failure of batteries in automotive applications, where various physical processes can take place in a large number of cells simultaneously. In this Perspective, we review modelling and testing approaches for battery safety under abuse conditions. We then propose a general framework for large-scale multi-physics modelling and experimental work to address safety issues of automotive batteries in real-world applications. In particular, we consider modelling coupled mechanical, electrical, electrochemical and thermal behaviours of batteries, and explore strategies to extend simulations to the battery module and pack level. Moreover, we evaluate safety test approaches for an entire range of automotive hardware sets from cell to pack. We also discuss challenges in building this framework and directions for its future development.

Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adam Duarte,; Hatfield, Jeffrey; Todd M. Swannack,; Michael R. J. Forstner,; M. Clay Green,; Floyd W. Weckerly,

2015-01-01

Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected areas, and a standard operating procedure to identify areas of priority for habitat conservation efforts. Therefore, we suggest future efforts focus on these aspects of golden-cheeked warbler conservation and ecology.

Detailed assessment of global transport-energy models’ structures and projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Sonia; Mishra, Gouri Shankar; Fulton, Lew

This paper focuses on comparing the frameworks and projections from four major global transportation models with considerable transportation technology and behavioral detail. We analyze and compare the modeling frameworks, underlying data, assumptions, intermediate parameters, and projections to identify the sources of divergence or consistency, as well as key knowledge gaps. We find that there are significant differences in the base-year data and key parameters for future projections, especially for developing countries. These include passenger and freight activity, mode shares, vehicle ownership rates, and even energy consumption by mode, particularly for shipping, aviation and trucking. This may be due in partmore » to a lack of previous efforts to do such consistency-checking and “bench-marking.” We find that the four models differ in terms of the relative roles of various mitigation strategies to achieve a 2°C / 450 ppm CO2e target: the economics-based integrated assessment models favor the use of low carbon fuels as the primary mitigation option followed by efficiency improvements, whereas transport-only and expert-based models favor efficiency improvements of vehicles followed by mode shifts. We offer recommendations for future modeling improvements focusing on (1) reducing data gaps; (2) translating the findings from this study into relevant policy implications such as feasibility of current policy goals, additional policy targets needed, regional vs. global reductions, etc.; (3) modeling strata of demographic groups to improve understanding of vehicle ownership levels, travel behavior, and urban vs. rural considerations; and (4) conducting coordinated efforts in aligning input assumptions and historical data, policy analysis, and modeling insights.« less

Solar Sail Roadmap Mission GN and C Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heaton, Andrew F.

2005-01-01

The NASA In-Space Propulsion program is funding development work for solar sails to enhance future scientific opportunities. Key to this effort are scientific solar sail roadmap missions identified by peer review. The two near-term missions of interest are L1 Diamond and Solar Polar Imager. Additionally, the New Millennium Program is sponsoring the Space Technology 9 (ST9) demonstration mission. Solar sails are one of five technologies competing for the ST9 flight demonstration. Two candidate solar sail missions have been identified for a potential ST9 flight. All the roadmap missions and candidate flight demonstration missions face various GN&C challenges. A variety of efforts are underway to address these challenges. These include control actuator design and testing, low thrust optimization studies, attitude control system design and modeling, control-structure interaction studies, trajectory control design, and solar radiation pressure model development. Here we survey the various efforts underway and identify a few of specific recent interest and focus.

Seeing through the Smoke: A collaborative, multidisciplinary effort to address the interplay between wildfire, climate, air quality, and health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, S. J.; Fischer, E. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Ford, B.; Lassman, W.; Pfister, G.; Volckens, J.; Gan, R.; Magzamen, S.; Barnes, E. A.

2015-12-01

Exposure to wildfire smoke plumes represents an episodic, uncertain, and potentially growing threat to public health in the western United States. The area burned by wildfires in this region has increased over recent decades, and the future of fires within this region is largely unknown. Future fire emissions are intimately linked to future meteorological conditions, which are uncertain due to the variability of climate model outputs and differences between representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. We know that exposure to wildfire smoke is harmful, particularly for vulnerable populations. However the literature on the heath effects of wildfire smoke exposure is thin, particularly when compared to the depth of information we have on the effects of exposure to smoke of anthropogenic origin. We are exploring the relationships between climate, fires, air quality and public health through multiple interdisciplinary collaborations. We will present several examples from these projects including 1) an analysis of the influence of fire on ozone abundances over the United States, and 2) efforts to use a high-resolution weather forecasting model to nail down exposure within specific smoke plumes. We will also highlight how our team works together. This discussion will include examples of the university structure that facilitates our current collaborations, and the lessons we have learned by seeking stakeholder input to make our science more useful.

77 FR 29351 - Disease, Disability, and Injury Prevention and Control; Special Interest Projects (SIPs): Initial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-17

... Indoor Tanning among Young Adults to Inform Future Public Health Policy Efforts to Prevent Skin Cancer... Frequent Indoor Tanning among Young Adults to Inform Future Public Health Policy Efforts to Prevent Skin...

Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

2013-01-01

This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

Accuracy of Binary Black Hole Waveform Models for Advanced LIGO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prayush; Fong, Heather; Barkett, Kevin; Bhagwat, Swetha; Afshari, Nousha; Chu, Tony; Brown, Duncan; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Pfeiffer, Harald; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Simulating Extreme Spacetimes (SXS) Team

2016-03-01

Coalescing binaries of compact objects, such as black holes and neutron stars, are the primary targets for gravitational-wave (GW) detection with Advanced LIGO. Accurate modeling of the emitted GWs is required to extract information about the binary source. The most accurate solution to the general relativistic two-body problem is available in numerical relativity (NR), which is however limited in application due to computational cost. Current searches use semi-analytic models that are based in post-Newtonian (PN) theory and calibrated to NR. In this talk, I will present comparisons between contemporary models and high-accuracy numerical simulations performed using the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC), focusing at the questions: (i) How well do models capture binary's late-inspiral where they lack a-priori accurate information from PN or NR, and (ii) How accurately do they model binaries with parameters outside their range of calibration. These results guide the choice of templates for future GW searches, and motivate future modeling efforts.

Developing Cognitive Models for Social Simulation from Survey Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alt, Jonathan K.; Lieberman, Stephen

The representation of human behavior and cognition continues to challenge the modeling and simulation community. The use of survey and polling instruments to inform belief states, issue stances and action choice models provides a compelling means of developing models and simulations with empirical data. Using these types of data to population social simulations can greatly enhance the feasibility of validation efforts, the reusability of social and behavioral modeling frameworks, and the testable reliability of simulations. We provide a case study demonstrating these effects, document the use of survey data to develop cognitive models, and suggest future paths forward for social and behavioral modeling.

Modeling multiphase migration of organic chemicals in groundwater systems--a review and assessment.

PubMed Central

Abriola, L M

1989-01-01

Over the past two decades, a number of models have been developed to describe the multiphase migration of organic chemicals in the subsurface. This paper presents the state-of-the-art with regard to such modeling efforts. The mathematical foundations of these models are explored and individual models are presented and discussed. Models are divided into three groups: a) those that assume a sharp interface between the migrating fluids; b) those that incorporate capillarity; and c) those that consider interphase transport of mass. Strengths and weaknesses of each approach are considered along with supporting data for model validation. Future research directions are also highlighted. PMID:2695322

Future land-use related water demand in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

CAM/LIFTER forces and friction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabbey, D.J.; Lee, J.; Patterson, D.J.

1992-02-01

This report details the procedures used to measure the cam/lifter forces and friction. The present effort employed a Cummins LTA-10, and focuses on measurements and dynamic modeling of the injector train. The program was sponsored by the US Department of Energy in support of advanced diesel engine technology. The injector train was instrumented to record the instantaneous roller speed, roller pin friction torque, pushrod force, injector link force and cam speed. These measurements, together with lift profiles for pushrod and injector link displacement, enabled the friction work loss in the injector train to be determined. Other significant design criteria suchmore » as camshaft roller follower slippage and maximum loads on components were also determined. Future efforts will concentrate on the dynamic model, with tests run as required for correlation.« less

From scientific discovery to health outcomes: A synergistic model of doctoral nursing education.

PubMed

Michael, Melanie J; Clochesy, John M

2016-05-01

Across the globe, health system leaders and stakeholder are calling for system-level reforms in education, research, and practice to accelerate the uptake and application of new knowledge in practice and to improve health care delivery and health outcomes. An evolving bi-dimensional research-practice focused model of doctoral nursing education in the U.S. is creating unprecedented opportunities for collaborative translational and investigative efforts for nurse researchers and practitioners. The nursing academy must commit to a shared goal of preparing future generations of nurse scientists and practitioners with the capacity and motivation to work together to accelerate the translation of evidence into practice in order to place nursing at the forefront of health system improvement efforts and advance the profession. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progress with the lick adaptive optics system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavel, D T; Olivier, S S; Bauman, B

2000-03-01

Progress and results of observations with the Lick Observatory Laser Guide Star Adaptive Optics System are presented. This system is optimized for diffraction-limited imaging in the near infrared, 1-2 micron wavelength bands. We describe our development efforts in a number of component areas including, a redesign of the optical bench layout, the commissioning of a new infrared science camera, and improvements to the software and user interface. There is also an ongoing effort to characterize the system performance with both natural and laser guide stars and to fold this data into a refined system model. Such a model can bemore » used to help plan future observations, for example, predicting the point-spread function as a function of seeing and guide star magnitude.« less

Transient Mathematical Modeling for Liquid Rocket Engine Systems: Methods, Capabilities, and Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seymour, David C.; Martin, Michael A.; Nguyen, Huy H.; Greene, William D.

2005-01-01

The subject of mathematical modeling of the transient operation of liquid rocket engines is presented in overview form from the perspective of engineers working at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The necessity of creating and utilizing accurate mathematical models as part of liquid rocket engine development process has become well established and is likely to increase in importance in the future. The issues of design considerations for transient operation, development testing, and failure scenario simulation are discussed. An overview of the derivation of the basic governing equations is presented along with a discussion of computational and numerical issues associated with the implementation of these equations in computer codes. Also, work in the field of generating usable fluid property tables is presented along with an overview of efforts to be undertaken in the future to improve the tools use for the mathematical modeling process.

Transient Mathematical Modeling for Liquid Rocket Engine Systems: Methods, Capabilities, and Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Michael A.; Nguyen, Huy H.; Greene, William D.; Seymout, David C.

2003-01-01

The subject of mathematical modeling of the transient operation of liquid rocket engines is presented in overview form from the perspective of engineers working at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The necessity of creating and utilizing accurate mathematical models as part of liquid rocket engine development process has become well established and is likely to increase in importance in the future. The issues of design considerations for transient operation, development testing, and failure scenario simulation are discussed. An overview of the derivation of the basic governing equations is presented along with a discussion of computational and numerical issues associated with the implementation of these equations in computer codes. Also, work in the field of generating usable fluid property tables is presented along with an overview of efforts to be undertaken in the future to improve the tools use for the mathematical modeling process.

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

PubMed

Kurz, Werner A; Stinson, Graham; Rampley, Gregory J; Dymond, Caren C; Neilson, Eric T

2008-02-05

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

Transforming data into usable knowledge: the CIRC experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Lach, D.; Hartmann, H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Stevenson, J.

2017-12-01

NOAA's northwest RISA, the Climate Impacts Research Consortium, emphasizes the transformation of data into usable knowledge. This effort involves physical scientists (e.g., Abatzoglou) building web-based tools with climate and hydrologic data and model output, a team performing data mining to link crop loss claims to droughts, social scientists (eg., Lach, Hartmann) evaluating the effectiveness of such tools at communicating with end users, and two-way engagement with a wide variety of audiences who are interested in using and improving the tools. Unusual in this effort is the seamless integration across timescales past, present, and future; data mining; and the level of effort in evaluating the tools. We provide examples of agriculturally relevant climate variables (e.g. growing degree days, day of first fall freeze) and describe the iterative process of incorporating user feedback.

APOKASC 2.0: Asteroseismology and Spectroscopy for Cool Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsonneault, Marc H.; Elsworth, Yvonne P.; APOKASC

2017-01-01

The APOGEE survey has obtained and analyzed high resolution H band spectra of more than 10,000 cool dwarfs and giants in the original Kepler fields. The APOKASC effort combines this data with asteroseismology and star spot studies, resulting in more than 7,000 stellar mass estimates for dwarfs and giants with high quality abundances, temperatures, and surface gravities. We highlight the main results from this effort so far, which include a tight correlation between surface abundances in giants and stellar mass, precise absolute gravity calibrations, and the discovery of unexpected stellar populations, such as young alpha-enhanced stars. We discuss grid modeling estimates for stellar masses and compare the absolute asteroseismic mass scale to calibrators in star clusters and the halo Directions for future efforts are discussed.

Solid/FEM integration at SNLA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chavez, Patrick F.

1987-01-01

The effort at Sandia National Labs. on the methodologies and techniques being used to generate strict hexahedral finite element meshes from a solid model is described. The functionality of the modeler is used to decompose the solid into a set of nonintersecting meshable finite element primitives. The description of the decomposition is exported, via a Boundary Representative format, to the meshing program which uses the information for complete finite element model specification. Particular features of the program are discussed in some detail along with future plans for development which includes automation of the decomposition using artificial intelligence techniques.

Protecting the Green Behind the Gold: Catchment-Wide Restoration Efforts Necessary to Achieve Nutrient and Sediment Load Reduction Targets in Gold Coast City, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, Nathan J.; Barry, Michael; McAlister, Tony; Weber, Tony; Groth, Dominic

2014-10-01

The Gold Coast City is the tourist center of Australia and has undergone rapid and massive urban expansion over the past few decades. The Broadwater estuary, in the heart of the City, not only offers an array of ecosystems services for many important aquatic wildlife species, but also supports the livelihood and lifestyles of residents. Not surprisingly, there have been signs of imbalance between these two major services. This study combined a waterway hydraulic and pollutant transport model to simulate diffuse nutrient and sediment loads under past and future proposed land-use changes. A series of catchment restoration initiatives were modeled in an attempt to define optimal catchment scale restoration efforts necessary to protect and enhance the City's waterways. The modeling revealed that for future proposed development, a business as usual approach to catchment management will not reduce nutrient and sediment loading sufficiently to protect the community values. Considerable restoration of upper catchment tributaries is imperative, combined with treatment of stormwater flow from intensively developed sub-catchment areas. Collectively, initiatives undertaken by regulatory authorities to date have successfully reduced nutrient and sediment loading reaching adjoining waterways, although these programs have been ad hoc without strategic systematic planning and vision. Future conservation requires integration of multidisciplinary science and proactive management driven by the high ecological, economical, and community values placed on the City's waterways. Long-term catchment restoration and conservation planning requires an extensive budget (including political and societal support) to handle ongoing maintenance issues associated with scale of restoration determined here.

Support for Training Effectiveness Assessment and Data Interoperability (STEADI)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-02

will guide future efforts of the services to broadly incorporate IPA concepts across the continuum of training . Throughout the course of this effort...data access issues for marksmanship training systems. In comparison to updating Pipeline, the registry also offered more flexibility, eased future...development would be required, SP2 offers a good starting point to accelerate development efforts and lower costs to ARL. Acting as the central glue

Meson exchange current (MEC) models in neutrino interaction generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katori, Teppei

2015-05-15

Understanding of the so-called 2 particle-2 hole (2p-2h) effect is an urgent program in neutrino interaction physics for current and future oscillation experiments. Such processes are believed to be responsible for the event excesses observed by recent neutrino experiments. The 2p-2h effect is dominated by the meson exchange current (MEC), and is accompanied by a 2-nucleon emission from the primary vertex, instead of a single nucleon emission from the charged-current quasi-elastic (CCQE) interaction. Current and future high resolution experiments can potentially nail down this effect. For this reason, there are world wide efforts to model and implement this process inmore » neutrino interaction simulations. In these proceedings, I would like to describe how this channel is modeled in neutrino interaction generators.« less

Computational Modeling for Enhancing Soft Tissue Image Guided Surgery: An Application in Neurosurgery.

PubMed

Miga, Michael I

2016-01-01

With the recent advances in computing, the opportunities to translate computational models to more integrated roles in patient treatment are expanding at an exciting rate. One area of considerable development has been directed towards correcting soft tissue deformation within image guided neurosurgery applications. This review captures the efforts that have been undertaken towards enhancing neuronavigation by the integration of soft tissue biomechanical models, imaging and sensing technologies, and algorithmic developments. In addition, the review speaks to the evolving role of modeling frameworks within surgery and concludes with some future directions beyond neurosurgical applications.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-01-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.

Pointing and Tracking Concepts for Deep Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, J. W.; Lee, S.; Chen, C.

2000-01-01

This paper summarizes part of a FY1998 effort on the design and development of an optical communications (Opcomm) subsystem for the Advanced Deep Space System Development (ADSSD) Project. This study was funded by the JPL X2000 program to develop an optical communications (Opcomm) subsystem for use in future planetary missions. The goal of this development effort was aimed at providing prototype hardware with the capability of performing uplink, downlink, and ranging functions from deep space distances. Such a system was envisioned to support future deep space missions in the Outer Planets/Solar Probe (OPSP) mission set such as the Pluto express and Europa orbiter by providing a significant enhancement of data return capability. A study effort was initiated to develop a flyable engineering model optical terminal to support the proposed Europa Orbiter mission - as either the prime telecom subsystem or for mission augmentation. The design concept was to extend the prototype lasercom terminal development effort currently conducted by JPL's Optical Communications Group. The subsystem would track the sun illuminated Earth at Europa and farther distances for pointing reference. During the course of the study, a number of challenging issues were found. These included thermo-mechanical distortion, straylight control, and pointing. This paper focuses on the pointing aspects required to locate and direct a laser beam from a spacecraft (S/C) near Jupiter to a receiving station on Earth.

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew

2015-01-01

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Science and Observation Recommendations for Future NASA Carbon Cycle Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Collatz, G. J.; Kawa, S. R.; Gregg, W. W.; Gervin, J. C.; Abshire, J. B.; Andrews, A. E.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Demaio, L. D.; Knox, R. G.

2002-01-01

Between October 2000 and June 2001, an Agency-wide planning, effort was organized by elements of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to define future research and technology development activities. This planning effort was conducted at the request of the Associate Administrator of the Office of Earth Science (Code Y), Dr. Ghassem Asrar, at NASA Headquarters (HQ). The primary points of contact were Dr. Mary Cleave, Deputy Associate Administrator for Advanced Planning at NASA HQ (Headquarters) and Dr. Charles McClain of the Office of Global Carbon Studies (Code 970.2) at GSFC. During this period, GSFC hosted three workshops to define the science requirements and objectives, the observational and modeling requirements to meet the science objectives, the technology development requirements, and a cost plan for both the science program and new flight projects that will be needed for new observations beyond the present or currently planned. The plan definition process was very intensive as HQ required the final presentation package by mid-June 2001. This deadline was met and the recommendations were ultimately refined and folded into a broader program plan, which also included climate modeling, aerosol observations, and science computing technology development, for contributing to the President's Climate Change Research Initiative. This technical memorandum outlines the process and recommendations made for cross-cutting carbon cycle research as presented in June. A separate NASA document outlines the budget profiles or cost analyses conducted as part of the planning effort.

Dialogic Action in Climate Change Discussions: An International Study of High School Students in China, New Zealand, Norway and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arya, Diana J.; Parker, Jessica K.

2015-01-01

Global efforts to prepare young developing minds for solving current and future challenges of climate change have advocated interdisciplinary, issues-based instructional approaches in order to transform traditional models of science education as delivering conceptual facts (UNESCO, 2014). This study is an exploration of the online interactions in…

Efforts to integrate CMIP metadata and standards into NOAA-GFDL's climate model workflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanton, C.; Lee, M.; Mason, E. E.; Radhakrishnan, A.

2017-12-01

Modeling centers participating in CMIP6 run model simulations, publish requested model output (conforming to community data standards), and document models and simulations using ES-DOC. GFDL developed workflow software implementing some best practices to meet these metadata and documentation requirements. The CMIP6 Data Request defines the variables that should be archived for each experiment and specifies their spatial and temporal structure. We used the Data Request's dreqPy python library to write GFDL model configuration files as an alternative to hand-crafted tables. There was also a largely successful effort to standardize variable names within the model to reduce the additional overhead of translating "GFDL to CMOR" variables at a later stage in the pipeline. The ES-DOC ecosystem provides tools and standards to create, publish, and view various types of community-defined CIM documents, most notably model and simulation documents. Although ES-DOC will automatically create simulation documents during publishing by harvesting NetCDF global attributes, the information must be collected, stored, and placed in the NetCDF files by the workflow. We propose to develop a GUI to collect the simulation document precursors. In addition, a new MIP for CMIP6-CPMIP, a comparison of computational performance of climate models-is documented using machine and performance CIM documents. We used ES-DOC's pyesdoc python library to automatically create these machine and performance documents. We hope that these and similar efforts will become permanent features of the GFDL workflow to facilitate future participation in CMIP-like activities.

Thinking about the future as a way to succeed in the present: a longitudinal study of future orientation and violent behaviors among African American youth.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bauermeister, José A

2011-12-01

Previous research has linked higher levels of hopelessness about one's future to violent behavior during adolescence; however, little is known about this relationship over time for adolescents. Using growth curve modeling, we tested the association between future orientation and violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of African American youth (n = 681). Variation based on demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, SES, previous violence) was explored. At baseline, differences in violent behavior varied by demographic characteristics. Overall, violent behavior decreased with age. Higher levels of future orientation were associated with greater decreases in violent behavior over time. Demographic characteristics were not associated with change in violent behavior overtime. Our findings suggest that future orientation can act as a promotive factor for at risk African American youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in violence prevention efforts.

Climate Science Performance, Data and Productivity on Titan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayer, Benjamin W; Worley, Patrick H; Gaddis, Abigail L

2015-01-01

Climate Science models are flagship codes for the largest of high performance computing (HPC) resources, both in visibility, with the newly launched Department of Energy (DOE) Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) effort, and in terms of significant fractions of system usage. The performance of the DOE ACME model is captured with application level timers and examined through a sizeable run archive. Performance and variability of compute, queue time and ancillary services are examined. As Climate Science advances in the use of HPC resources there has been an increase in the required human and data systems to achieve programs goals.more » A description of current workflow processes (hardware, software, human) and planned automation of the workflow, along with historical and projected data in motion and at rest data usage, are detailed. The combination of these two topics motivates a description of future systems requirements for DOE Climate Modeling efforts, focusing on the growth of data storage and network and disk bandwidth required to handle data at an acceptable rate.« less

Advanced 3D Characterization and Reconstruction of Reactor Materials FY16 Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fromm, Bradley; Hauch, Benjamin; Sridharan, Kumar

2016-12-01

A coordinated effort to link advanced materials characterization methods and computational modeling approaches is critical to future success for understanding and predicting the behavior of reactor materials that operate at extreme conditions. The difficulty and expense of working with nuclear materials have inhibited the use of modern characterization techniques on this class of materials. Likewise, mesoscale simulation efforts have been impeded due to insufficient experimental data necessary for initialization and validation of the computer models. The objective of this research is to develop methods to integrate advanced materials characterization techniques developed for reactor materials with state-of-the-art mesoscale modeling and simulationmore » tools. Research to develop broad-ion beam sample preparation, high-resolution electron backscatter diffraction, and digital microstructure reconstruction techniques; and methods for integration of these techniques into mesoscale modeling tools are detailed. Results for both irradiated and un-irradiated reactor materials are presented for FY14 - FY16 and final remarks are provided.« less

Predicted deep-sea coral habitat suitability for the U.S. West coast.

PubMed

Guinotte, John M; Davies, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Regional scale habitat suitability models provide finer scale resolution and more focused predictions of where organisms may occur. Previous modelling approaches have focused primarily on local and/or global scales, while regional scale models have been relatively few. In this study, regional scale predictive habitat models are presented for deep-sea corals for the U.S. West Coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Model results are intended to aid in future research or mapping efforts and to assess potential coral habitat suitability both within and outside existing bottom trawl closures (i.e. Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)) and identify suitable habitat within U.S. National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS). Deep-sea coral habitat suitability was modelled at 500 m×500 m spatial resolution using a range of physical, chemical and environmental variables known or thought to influence the distribution of deep-sea corals. Using a spatial partitioning cross-validation approach, maximum entropy models identified slope, temperature, salinity and depth as important predictors for most deep-sea coral taxa. Large areas of highly suitable deep-sea coral habitat were predicted both within and outside of existing bottom trawl closures and NMS boundaries. Predicted habitat suitability over regional scales are not currently able to identify coral areas with pin point accuracy and probably overpredict actual coral distribution due to model limitations and unincorporated variables (i.e. data on distribution of hard substrate) that are known to limit their distribution. Predicted habitat results should be used in conjunction with multibeam bathymetry, geological mapping and other tools to guide future research efforts to areas with the highest probability of harboring deep-sea corals. Field validation of predicted habitat is needed to quantify model accuracy, particularly in areas that have not been sampled.

Predicted Deep-Sea Coral Habitat Suitability for the U.S. West Coast

PubMed Central

Guinotte, John M.; Davies, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

Regional scale habitat suitability models provide finer scale resolution and more focused predictions of where organisms may occur. Previous modelling approaches have focused primarily on local and/or global scales, while regional scale models have been relatively few. In this study, regional scale predictive habitat models are presented for deep-sea corals for the U.S. West Coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Model results are intended to aid in future research or mapping efforts and to assess potential coral habitat suitability both within and outside existing bottom trawl closures (i.e. Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)) and identify suitable habitat within U.S. National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS). Deep-sea coral habitat suitability was modelled at 500 m×500 m spatial resolution using a range of physical, chemical and environmental variables known or thought to influence the distribution of deep-sea corals. Using a spatial partitioning cross-validation approach, maximum entropy models identified slope, temperature, salinity and depth as important predictors for most deep-sea coral taxa. Large areas of highly suitable deep-sea coral habitat were predicted both within and outside of existing bottom trawl closures and NMS boundaries. Predicted habitat suitability over regional scales are not currently able to identify coral areas with pin point accuracy and probably overpredict actual coral distribution due to model limitations and unincorporated variables (i.e. data on distribution of hard substrate) that are known to limit their distribution. Predicted habitat results should be used in conjunction with multibeam bathymetry, geological mapping and other tools to guide future research efforts to areas with the highest probability of harboring deep-sea corals. Field validation of predicted habitat is needed to quantify model accuracy, particularly in areas that have not been sampled. PMID:24759613

Design, modelling and simulation aspects of an ankle rehabilitation device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racu, C. M.; Doroftei, I.

2016-08-01

Ankle injuries are amongst the most common injuries of the lower limb. Besides initial treatment, rehabilitation of the patients plays a crucial role for future activities and proper functionality of the foot. Traditionally, ankle injuries are rehabilitated via physiotherapy, using simple equipment like elastic bands and rollers, requiring intensive efforts of therapists and patients. Thus, the need of robotic devices emerges. In this paper, the design concept and some modelling and simulation aspects of a novel ankle rehabilitation device are presented.

Post Landsat-D advanced concept evaluation /PLACE/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, L. D.; Alvarado, U. R.; Flatow, F. S.

1979-01-01

The aim of the Post Landsat-D Advanced Concept Evaluation (PLACE) program was to identify the key technology requirements of earth resources satellite systems for the 1985-2000 period. The program involved four efforts: (1) examination of future needs in the earth resources area, (2) creation of a space systems technology model capable of satisfying these needs, (3) identification of key technology requirements posed by this model, and (4) development of a methodology (PRISM) to assist in the priority structuring of the resulting technologies.

The MODE family of facility class experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, David W.

1992-01-01

The objective of the Middeck 0-gravity Dynamics Experiment (MODE) is to characterize fundamental 0-g slosh behavior and obtain quantitative data on slosh force and spacecraft response for correlation of the analytical model. The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: space results; STA objectives, requirements, and approach; comparison of ground to orbital data for the baseline configuration; conclusions of orbital testing; flight experiment resources; Middeck Active Control Experiment (MACE); MACE 1-G and 0-G models; and future efforts.

Development Of Maneuvering Autopilot For Flight Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, P. K. A.; Walker, R. A.

1992-01-01

Report describes recent efforts to develop automatic control system operating under supervision of pilot and making airplane follow prescribed trajectories during flight tests. Report represents additional progress on this project. Gives background information on technology of control of test-flight trajectories; presents mathematical models of airframe, engine and command-augmentation system; focuses on mathematical modeling of maneuvers; addresses design of autopilots for maneuvers; discusses numerical simulation and evaluation of results of simulation of eight maneuvers under control of simulated autopilot; and presents summary and discussion of future work.

Future Combat System Spinout 1 Technical Field Test - Establishing and Implementing Models and Simulations System of Systems Verification, Validation and Accreditation Practices, Methodologies and Procedures

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-24

assisted by the Brigade Combat Team (BCT) Modernization effort, the use of Models and Simulations ( M &S) becomes more crucial in supporting major...in 2008 via a slice of the Current Force (CF) BCT structure. To ensure realistic operational context, a M &S System-of- Systems (SoS) level...messages, and constructive representation of platforms, vehicles, and terrain. The M &S federation also provided test control, data collection, and live

Solar Occultation Retrieval Algorithm Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lumpe, Jerry D.

2004-01-01

This effort addresses the comparison and validation of currently operational solar occultation retrieval algorithms, and the development of generalized algorithms for future application to multiple platforms. initial development of generalized forward model algorithms capable of simulating transmission data from of the POAM II/III and SAGE II/III instruments. Work in the 2" quarter will focus on: completion of forward model algorithms, including accurate spectral characteristics for all instruments, and comparison of simulated transmission data with actual level 1 instrument data for specific occultation events.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analyticalmore » models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Enhancements to the SSME transfer function modeling code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Irwin, R. Dennis; Mitchell, Jerrel R.; Bartholomew, David L.; Glenn, Russell D.

1995-01-01

This report details the results of a one year effort by Ohio University to apply the transfer function modeling and analysis tools developed under NASA Grant NAG8-167 (Irwin, 1992), (Bartholomew, 1992) to attempt the generation of Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Turbopump transfer functions from time domain data. In addition, new enhancements to the transfer function modeling codes which enhance the code functionality are presented, along with some ideas for improved modeling methods and future work. Section 2 contains a review of the analytical background used to generate transfer functions with the SSME transfer function modeling software. Section 2.1 presents the 'ratio method' developed for obtaining models of systems that are subject to single unmeasured excitation sources and have two or more measured output signals. Since most of the models developed during the investigation use the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) for model generation, Section 2.2 presents an introduction of ERA, and Section 2.3 describes how it can be used to model spectral quantities. Section 2.4 details the Residue Identification Algorithm (RID) including the use of Constrained Least Squares (CLS) and Total Least Squares (TLS). Most of this information can be found in the report (and is repeated for convenience). Section 3 chronicles the effort of applying the SSME transfer function modeling codes to the a51p394.dat and a51p1294.dat time data files to generate transfer functions from the unmeasured input to the 129.4 degree sensor output. Included are transfer function modeling attempts using five methods. The first method is a direct application of the SSME codes to the data files and the second method uses the underlying trends in the spectral density estimates to form transfer function models with less clustering of poles and zeros than the models obtained by the direct method. In the third approach, the time data is low pass filtered prior to the modeling process in an effort to filter out high frequency characteristics. The fourth method removes the presumed system excitation and its harmonics in order to investigate the effects of the excitation on the modeling process. The fifth method is an attempt to apply constrained RID to obtain better transfer functions through more accurate modeling over certain frequency ranges. Section 4 presents some new C main files which were created to round out the functionality of the existing SSME transfer function modeling code. It is now possible to go from time data to transfer function models using only the C codes; it is not necessary to rely on external software. The new C main files and instructions for their use are included. Section 5 presents current and future enhancements to the XPLOT graphics program which was delivered with the initial software. Several new features which have been added to the program are detailed in the first part of this section. The remainder of Section 5 then lists some possible features which may be added in the future. Section 6 contains the conclusion section of this report. Section 6.1 is an overview of the work including a summary and observations relating to finding transfer functions with the SSME code. Section 6.2 contains information relating to future work on the project.

Ongoing Fixed Wing Research within the NASA Langley Aeroelasticity Branch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert; Chwalowski, Pawel; Funk, Christie; Heeg, Jennifer; Hur, Jiyoung; Sanetrik, Mark; Scott, Robert; Silva, Walter; Stanford, Bret; Wiseman, Carol

2015-01-01

The NASA Langley Aeroelasticity Branch is involved in a number of research programs related to fixed wing aeroelasticity and aeroservoelasticity. These ongoing efforts are summarized here, and include aeroelastic tailoring of subsonic transport wing structures, experimental and numerical assessment of truss-braced wing flutter and limit cycle oscillations, and numerical modeling of high speed civil transport configurations. Efforts devoted to verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of aeroelastic physics in a workshop setting are also discussed. The feasibility of certain future civil transport configurations will depend on the ability to understand and control complex aeroelastic phenomena, a goal that the Aeroelasticity Branch is well-positioned to contribute through these programs.

Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) cleanroom process model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Scott; Basili, Victor; Godfrey, Sally; Mcgarry, Frank; Pajerski, Rose; Waligora, Sharon

1991-01-01

The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) cleanroom process model is described. The term 'cleanroom' originates in the integrated circuit (IC) production process, where IC's are assembled in dust free 'clean rooms' to prevent the destructive effects of dust. When applying the clean room methodology to the development of software systems, the primary focus is on software defect prevention rather than defect removal. The model is based on data and analysis from previous cleanroom efforts within the SEL and is tailored to serve as a guideline in applying the methodology to future production software efforts. The phases that are part of the process model life cycle from the delivery of requirements to the start of acceptance testing are described. For each defined phase, a set of specific activities is discussed, and the appropriate data flow is described. Pertinent managerial issues, key similarities and differences between the SEL's cleanroom process model and the standard development approach used on SEL projects, and significant lessons learned from prior cleanroom projects are presented. It is intended that the process model described here will be further tailored as additional SEL cleanroom projects are analyzed.

Geodetic Imaging and Tsunami Modeling of the 2017 Coupled Landslide-Tsunami Event in Karrat Fjord, West Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barba, M.; Willis, M. J.; Tiampo, K. F.; Lynett, P. J.; Mätzler, E.; Thorsøe, K.; Higman, B. M.; Thompson, J. A.; Morin, P. J.

2017-12-01

We use a combination of geodetic imaging techniques and modelling efforts to examine the June 2017 Karrat Fjord, West Greenland, landslide and tsunami event. Our efforts include analysis of pre-cursor motions extracted from Sentinal SAR interferometry that we improved with high-resolution Digital Surface Models derived from commercial imagery and geo-coded Structure from Motion analyses. We produce well constrained estimates of landslide volume through DSM differencing by improving the ArcticDEM coverage of the region, and provide modeled tsunami run-up estimates at villages around the region, constrained with in-situ observations provided by the Greenlandic authorities. Estimates of run-up at unoccupied coasts are derived using a blend of high resolution imagery and elevation models. We further detail post-failure slope stability for areas of interest around the Karrat Fjord region. Warming trends in the region from model and satellite analysis are combined with optical imagery to ascertain whether the influence of melting permafrost and the formation of small springs on a slight bench on the mountainside that eventually failed can be used as indicators of future events.

Model-based verification and validation of the SMAP uplink processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. O.; Dubos, G. F.; Tirona, J.; Standley, S.

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is being used increasingly within the spacecraft design community because of its benefits when compared to document-based approaches. As the complexity of projects expands dramatically with continually increasing computational power and technology infusion, the time and effort needed for verification and validation (V& V) increases geometrically. Using simulation to perform design validation with system-level models earlier in the life cycle stands to bridge the gap between design of the system (based on system-level requirements) and verifying those requirements/validating the system as a whole. This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V& V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process. Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based development efforts.

How do feelings influence effort? An empirical study of entrepreneurs' affect and venture effort.

PubMed

Foo, Maw-Der; Uy, Marilyn A; Baron, Robert A

2009-07-01

How do feelings influence the effort of entrepreneurs? To obtain data on this issue, the authors implemented experience sampling methodology in which 46 entrepreneurs used cell phones to provide reports on their affect, future temporal focus, and venture effort twice daily for 24 days. Drawing on the affect-as-information theory, the study found that entrepreneurs' negative affect directly predicts entrepreneurs' effort toward tasks that are required immediately. Results were consistent for within-day and next-day time lags. Extending the theory, the study found that positive affect predicts venture effort beyond what is immediately required and that this relationship is mediated by future temporal focus. The mediating effects were significant only for next-day outcomes. Implications of findings on the nature of the affect-effort relationship for different time lags are discussed.

Total Force Fitness in units part 1: military demand-resource model.

PubMed

Bates, Mark J; Fallesen, Jon J; Huey, Wesley S; Packard, Gary A; Ryan, Diane M; Burke, C Shawn; Smith, David G; Watola, Daniel J; Pinder, Evette D; Yosick, Todd M; Estrada, Armando X; Crepeau, Loring; Bowles, Stephen V

2013-11-01

The military unit is a critical center of gravity in the military's efforts to enhance resilience and the health of the force. The purpose of this article is to augment the military's Total Force Fitness (TFF) guidance with a framework of TFF in units. The framework is based on a Military Demand-Resource model that highlights the dynamic interactions across demands, resources, and outcomes. A joint team of subject-matter experts identified key variables representing unit fitness demands, resources, and outcomes. The resulting framework informs and supports leaders, support agencies, and enterprise efforts to strengthen TFF in units by (1) identifying TFF unit variables aligned with current evidence and operational practices, (2) standardizing communication about TFF in units across the Department of Defense enterprise in a variety of military organizational contexts, (3) improving current resources including evidence-based actions for leaders, (4) identifying and addressing of gaps, and (5) directing future research for enhancing TFF in units. These goals are intended to inform and enhance Service efforts to develop Service-specific TFF models, as well as provide the conceptual foundation for a follow-on article about TFF metrics for units. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

A neuroscience perspective on sexual risk behavior in adolescence and emerging adulthood

PubMed Central

VICTOR, ELIZABETH C.; HARIRI, AHMAD R.

2016-01-01

Late adolescence and emerging adulthood (specifically ages 15–24) represent a period of heightened sexual risk taking resulting in the greatest annual rates of sexually transmitted infections and unplanned pregnancies in the US population. Ongoing efforts to prevent such negative consequences are likely to benefit from a deepening of our understanding of biological mechanisms through which sexual risk taking emerges and biases decision making during this critical window. Here we present a neuroscience framework from which a mechanistic examination of sexual risk taking can be advanced. Specifically, we adapt the neurodevelopmental triadic model, which outlines how motivated behavior is governed by three systems: approach, avoidance, and regulation, to sexual decision making and subsequent risk behavior. We further propose a testable hypothesis of the triadic model, wherein relatively decreased threat-related amygdala reactivity and increased reward-related ventral striatum reactivity leads to sexual risk taking, which is particularly exaggerated during adolescence and young adulthood when there is an overexpression of dopaminergic neurons coupled with immature top-down prefrontal cortex regulation. We conclude by discussing how future research based on our adapted triadic model can inform ongoing efforts to improve intervention and prevention efforts. PMID:26611719

Integrating Phosphorus Movement with Soil and Water Loss in the Daily Erosion Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sklenar, Tim; Perez-Bidegain, Mario; Cruse, Richard; Gelder, Brian; Herzmann, Daryl

2016-04-01

The Daily Erosion Project (DEP) is an ongoing modelling effort which is now in its second generation. DEP provides comprehensive and dynamic estimates of sediment delivery, soil erosion, and hill slope runoff for agricultural land areas across the Midwestern United States every day for Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC 12) size watersheds. Results are posted every morning on the Internet at dailyerosion.org. Currently DEP covers all of Iowa and portions of Kansas and Minnesota, but expansion of coverage is ongoing. The integration of highly resolute spatial and temporal climate data, soil properties, crop rotation and residue management data affords the opportunity to test the effects of using multiple conservation practices on the transport and fate of water borne nutrients, especially phosphorus, on the Midwestern United States agricultural landscapes. Understanding the interaction of different environmental and land management practices on phosphorus movement will allow data from the DEP to guide conservation efforts as expansion continues into surrounding Midwestern states. The presentation will provide an overview of the DEP technology, including how input data are derived and used to make daily erosion estimates on over 200,000 flowpaths in the modelling area, as well as a discussion of the ongoing phosphorus transport modelling efforts and plans for future expansion (both land area and model functionality).

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-11-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.

Investigation of Models and Estimation Techniques for GPS Attitude Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrick, J.

1996-01-01

Much work has been done in the Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch (FDAB) in developing algorithms to met the new and growing field of attitude determination using the Global Positioning SYstem (GPS) constellation of satellites. Flight Dynamics has the responsibility to investigate any new technology and incorporate the innovations in the attitude ground support systems developed to support future missions. The work presented here is an investigative analysis that will produce the needed adaptation to allow the Flight Dynamics Support System (FDSS) to incorporate GPS phase measurements and produce observation measurements compatible with the FDSS. A simulator was developed to produce the necessary measurement data to test the models developed for the different estimation techniques used by FDAB. This paper gives an overview of the current modeling capabilities of the simulator models and algorithms for the adaptation of GPS measurement data and results from each of the estimation techniques. Future analysis efforts to evaluate the simulator and models against inflight GPS measurement data are also outlined.

Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

2011-12-01

There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

Bright Futures in Malawi’s New Dawn: Educational Aspirations as Assertions of Identity1

PubMed Central

Frye, Margaret

2013-01-01

Imagined futures, once a vital topic of theoretical inquiry within the sociology of culture, have been sidelined in recent decades. Rational choice models cannot explain the seemingly irrational optimism of youth aspirations, pointing to the need to explore other alternatives. This article incorporates insights from pragmatist theory and cognitive sociology to examine the relationship between imagined futures and present actions and experiences in rural Malawi, where future optimism appears particularly unfounded. Drawing from in-depth interviews and archival sources documenting ideological campaigns promoting schooling, the author shows that four elements are understood to jointly produce educational success: ambitious career goals, sustained effort, unflagging optimism, and resistance to temptation. Aspirations should be interpreted not as rational calculations, but instead as assertions of a virtuous identity, claims to be “one who aspires.” PMID:23645932

Dynamics of multiple-goal pursuit.

PubMed

Louro, Maria J; Pieters, Rik; Zeelenberg, Marcel

2007-08-01

The authors propose and test a model of multiple-goal pursuit that specifies how individuals allocate effort among multiple goals over time. The model predicts that whether individuals decide to step up effort, coast, abandon the current goal, or switch to pursue another goal is determined jointly by the emotions that flow from prior goal progress and the proximity to future goal attainment, and proximally determined by changes in expectancies about goal attainment. Results from a longitudinal diary study and 2 experiments show that positive and negative goal-related emotions can have diametrically opposing effects on goal-directed behavior, depending on the individual's proximity to goal attainment. The findings resolve contrasting predictions about the influence of positive and negative emotions in volitional behavior, critically amend the goal gradient hypothesis, and provide new insights into the dynamics and determinants of multiple-goal pursuit.

CAM/LIFTER forces and friction. Final report, September 15, 1988--November 30, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabbey, D.J.; Lee, J.; Patterson, D.J.

1992-02-01

This report details the procedures used to measure the cam/lifter forces and friction. The present effort employed a Cummins LTA-10, and focuses on measurements and dynamic modeling of the injector train. The program was sponsored by the US Department of Energy in support of advanced diesel engine technology. The injector train was instrumented to record the instantaneous roller speed, roller pin friction torque, pushrod force, injector link force and cam speed. These measurements, together with lift profiles for pushrod and injector link displacement, enabled the friction work loss in the injector train to be determined. Other significant design criteria suchmore » as camshaft roller follower slippage and maximum loads on components were also determined. Future efforts will concentrate on the dynamic model, with tests run as required for correlation.« less

Terminology development towards harmonizing multiple clinical neuroimaging research repositories.

PubMed

Turner, Jessica A; Pasquerello, Danielle; Turner, Matthew D; Keator, David B; Alpert, Kathryn; King, Margaret; Landis, Drew; Calhoun, Vince D; Potkin, Steven G; Tallis, Marcelo; Ambite, Jose Luis; Wang, Lei

2015-07-01

Data sharing and mediation across disparate neuroimaging repositories requires extensive effort to ensure that the different domains of data types are referred to by commonly agreed upon terms. Within the SchizConnect project, which enables querying across decentralized databases of neuroimaging, clinical, and cognitive data from various studies of schizophrenia, we developed a model for each data domain, identified common usable terms that could be agreed upon across the repositories, and linked them to standard ontological terms where possible. We had the goal of facilitating both the current user experience in querying and future automated computations and reasoning regarding the data. We found that existing terminologies are incomplete for these purposes, even with the history of neuroimaging data sharing in the field; and we provide a model for efforts focused on querying multiple clinical neuroimaging repositories.

Terminology development towards harmonizing multiple clinical neuroimaging research repositories

PubMed Central

Turner, Jessica A.; Pasquerello, Danielle; Turner, Matthew D.; Keator, David B.; Alpert, Kathryn; King, Margaret; Landis, Drew; Calhoun, Vince D.; Potkin, Steven G.; Tallis, Marcelo; Ambite, Jose Luis; Wang, Lei

2015-01-01

Data sharing and mediation across disparate neuroimaging repositories requires extensive effort to ensure that the different domains of data types are referred to by commonly agreed upon terms. Within the SchizConnect project, which enables querying across decentralized databases of neuroimaging, clinical, and cognitive data from various studies of schizophrenia, we developed a model for each data domain, identified common usable terms that could be agreed upon across the repositories, and linked them to standard ontological terms where possible. We had the goal of facilitating both the current user experience in querying and future automated computations and reasoning regarding the data. We found that existing terminologies are incomplete for these purposes, even with the history of neuroimaging data sharing in the field; and we provide a model for efforts focused on querying multiple clinical neuroimaging repositories. PMID:26688838

Hearing Impairment and Cognitive Energy: The Framework for Understanding Effortful Listening (FUEL).

PubMed

Pichora-Fuller, M Kathleen; Kramer, Sophia E; Eckert, Mark A; Edwards, Brent; Hornsby, Benjamin W Y; Humes, Larry E; Lemke, Ulrike; Lunner, Thomas; Matthen, Mohan; Mackersie, Carol L; Naylor, Graham; Phillips, Natalie A; Richter, Michael; Rudner, Mary; Sommers, Mitchell S; Tremblay, Kelly L; Wingfield, Arthur

2016-01-01

The Fifth Eriksholm Workshop on "Hearing Impairment and Cognitive Energy" was convened to develop a consensus among interdisciplinary experts about what is known on the topic, gaps in knowledge, the use of terminology, priorities for future research, and implications for practice. The general term cognitive energy was chosen to facilitate the broadest possible discussion of the topic. It goes back to who described the effects of attention on perception; he used the term psychic energy for the notion that limited mental resources can be flexibly allocated among perceptual and mental activities. The workshop focused on three main areas: (1) theories, models, concepts, definitions, and frameworks; (2) methods and measures; and (3) knowledge translation. We defined effort as the deliberate allocation of mental resources to overcome obstacles in goal pursuit when carrying out a task, with listening effort applying more specifically when tasks involve listening. We adapted Kahneman's seminal (1973) Capacity Model of Attention to listening and proposed a heuristically useful Framework for Understanding Effortful Listening (FUEL). Our FUEL incorporates the well-known relationship between cognitive demand and the supply of cognitive capacity that is the foundation of cognitive theories of attention. Our FUEL also incorporates a motivation dimension based on complementary theories of motivational intensity, adaptive gain control, and optimal performance, fatigue, and pleasure. Using a three-dimensional illustration, we highlight how listening effort depends not only on hearing difficulties and task demands but also on the listener's motivation to expend mental effort in the challenging situations of everyday life.

Four decades of modeling methane cycling in terrestrial ecosystems: Where we are heading?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Yuan, F.; Hanson, P. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Thornton, P. E.; Tian, H.; Riley, W. J.; Song, X.; Graham, D. E.; Song, C.

2015-12-01

A modeling approach to methane (CH4) is widely used to quantify the budget, investigate spatial and temporal variabilities, and understand the mechanistic processes and environmental controls on CH4 fluxes across spatial and temporal scales. Moreover, CH4 models are an important tool for integrating CH4 data from multiple sources, such as laboratory-based incubation and molecular analysis, field observational experiments, remote sensing, and aircraft-based measurements across a variety of terrestrial ecosystems. We reviewed 39 terrestrial CH4 models to characterize their strengths and weaknesses and to design a roadmap for future model improvement and application. We found that: (1) the focus of CH4 models have been shifted from theoretical to site- to regional-level application over the past four decades, expressed as dramatic increases in CH4 model development on regional budget quantification; (2) large discrepancies exist among models in terms of representing CH4 processes and their environmental controls; (3) significant data-model and model-model mismatches are partially attributed to different representations of wetland characterization and inundation dynamics. Three efforts should be paid special attention for future improvements and applications of fully mechanistic CH4 models: (1) CH4 models should be improved to represent the mechanisms underlying land-atmosphere CH4 exchange, with emphasis on improving and validating individual CH4 processes over depth and horizontal space; (2) models should be developed that are capable of simulating CH4 fluxes across space and time (particularly hot moments and hot spots); (3) efforts should be invested to develop model benchmarking frameworks that can easily be used for model improvement, evaluation, and integration with data from molecular to global scales. A newly developed microbial functional group-based CH4 model (CLM-Microbe) was further used to demonstrate the features of mechanistic representation and integration with multiple source of observational datasets.

Rodent models in Down syndrome research: impact and future opportunities

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Down syndrome is caused by trisomy of chromosome 21. To date, a multiplicity of mouse models with Down-syndrome-related features has been developed to understand this complex human chromosomal disorder. These mouse models have been important for determining genotype-phenotype relationships and identification of dosage-sensitive genes involved in the pathophysiology of the condition, and in exploring the impact of the additional chromosome on the whole genome. Mouse models of Down syndrome have also been used to test therapeutic strategies. Here, we provide an overview of research in the last 15 years dedicated to the development and application of rodent models for Down syndrome. We also speculate on possible and probable future directions of research in this fast-moving field. As our understanding of the syndrome improves and genome engineering technologies evolve, it is necessary to coordinate efforts to make all Down syndrome models available to the community, to test therapeutics in models that replicate the whole trisomy and design new animal models to promote further discovery of potential therapeutic targets. PMID:28993310

Rodent models in Down syndrome research: impact and future opportunities.

PubMed

Herault, Yann; Delabar, Jean M; Fisher, Elizabeth M C; Tybulewicz, Victor L J; Yu, Eugene; Brault, Veronique

2017-10-01

Down syndrome is caused by trisomy of chromosome 21. To date, a multiplicity of mouse models with Down-syndrome-related features has been developed to understand this complex human chromosomal disorder. These mouse models have been important for determining genotype-phenotype relationships and identification of dosage-sensitive genes involved in the pathophysiology of the condition, and in exploring the impact of the additional chromosome on the whole genome. Mouse models of Down syndrome have also been used to test therapeutic strategies. Here, we provide an overview of research in the last 15 years dedicated to the development and application of rodent models for Down syndrome. We also speculate on possible and probable future directions of research in this fast-moving field. As our understanding of the syndrome improves and genome engineering technologies evolve, it is necessary to coordinate efforts to make all Down syndrome models available to the community, to test therapeutics in models that replicate the whole trisomy and design new animal models to promote further discovery of potential therapeutic targets. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

In Vitro Developmental Toxicology Screens: A Report on the Progress of the Methodology and Future Applications.

PubMed

Zhang, Cindy; Ball, Jonathan; Panzica-Kelly, Julie; Augustine-Rauch, Karen

2016-04-18

There has been increasing focus on generation and assessment of in vitro developmental toxicology models for assessing teratogenic liability of chemicals. The driver for this focus has been to find reliable in vitro assays that will reduce or replace the use of in vivo tests for assessing teratogenicity. Such efforts may be eventually applied in testing pharmaceutical agents where a developmental toxicology assay or battery of assays may be incorporated into regulatory testing to replace one of the two species currently used in teratogenic assessment. Such assays may be eventually applied in testing a broader spectrum of chemicals, supporting efforts aligned with Tox21 strategies and responding to REACH legislation. This review describes the developmental toxicology assays that are of focus in these assessments: rodent whole embryo culture, zebrafish embryo assays, and embryonic stem cell assays. Progress on assay development as well as future directions of how these assays are envisioned to be applied for broader safety testing of chemicals are discussed. Altogether, the developmental model systems described in this review provide rich biological systems that can be utilized in better understanding teratogenic mechanisms of action of chemotypes and are promising in providing proactive safety assessment related to developmental toxicity. Continual advancements in refining/optimizing these in vitro assays are anticipated to provide a robust data set to provide thoughtful assessment of how whole animal teratogenicity evaluations can be reduced/refined in the future.

HASP server: a database and structural visualization platform for comparative models of influenza A hemagglutinin proteins.

PubMed

Ambroggio, Xavier I; Dommer, Jennifer; Gopalan, Vivek; Dunham, Eleca J; Taubenberger, Jeffery K; Hurt, Darrell E

2013-06-18

Influenza A viruses possess RNA genomes that mutate frequently in response to immune pressures. The mutations in the hemagglutinin genes are particularly significant, as the hemagglutinin proteins mediate attachment and fusion to host cells, thereby influencing viral pathogenicity and species specificity. Large-scale influenza A genome sequencing efforts have been ongoing to understand past epidemics and pandemics and anticipate future outbreaks. Sequencing efforts thus far have generated nearly 9,000 distinct hemagglutinin amino acid sequences. Comparative models for all publicly available influenza A hemagglutinin protein sequences (8,769 to date) were generated using the Rosetta modeling suite. The C-alpha root mean square deviations between a randomly chosen test set of models and their crystallographic templates were less than 2 Å, suggesting that the modeling protocols yielded high-quality results. The models were compiled into an online resource, the Hemagglutinin Structure Prediction (HASP) server. The HASP server was designed as a scientific tool for researchers to visualize hemagglutinin protein sequences of interest in a three-dimensional context. With a built-in molecular viewer, hemagglutinin models can be compared side-by-side and navigated by a corresponding sequence alignment. The models and alignments can be downloaded for offline use and further analysis. The modeling protocols used in the HASP server scale well for large amounts of sequences and will keep pace with expanded sequencing efforts. The conservative approach to modeling and the intuitive search and visualization interfaces allow researchers to quickly analyze hemagglutinin sequences of interest in the context of the most highly related experimental structures, and allow them to directly compare hemagglutinin sequences to each other simultaneously in their two- and three-dimensional contexts. The models and methodology have shown utility in current research efforts and the ongoing aim of the HASP server is to continue to accelerate influenza A research and have a positive impact on global public health.

Space Station Freedom (SSF) Data Management System (DMS) performance model data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stovall, John R.

1993-01-01

The purpose of this document was originally to be a working document summarizing Space Station Freedom (SSF) Data Management System (DMS) hardware and software design, configuration, performance and estimated loading data from a myriad of source documents such that the parameters provided could be used to build a dynamic performance model of the DMS. The document is published at this time as a close-out of the DMS performance modeling effort resulting from the Clinton Administration mandated Space Station Redesign. The DMS as documented in this report is no longer a part of the redesigned Space Station. The performance modeling effort was a joint undertaking between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Flight Data Systems Division (FDSD) and the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Spacecraft Data Systems Research Branch. The scope of this document is limited to the DMS core network through the Man Tended Configuration (MTC) as it existed prior to the 1993 Clinton Administration mandated Space Station Redesign. Data is provided for the Standard Data Processors (SDP's), Multiplexer/Demultiplexers (MDM's) and Mass Storage Units (MSU's). Planned future releases would have added the additional hardware and software descriptions needed to describe the complete DMS. Performance and loading data through the Permanent Manned Configuration (PMC) was to have been included as it became available. No future releases of this document are presently planned pending completion of the present Space Station Redesign activities and task reassessment.

Duct flow nonuniformities study for space shuttle main engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thoenes, J.

1985-01-01

To improve the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) design and for future use in the development of generation rocket engines, a combined experimental/analytical study was undertaken with the goals of first, establishing an experimental data base for the flow conditions in the SSME high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFTP) hot gas manifold (HGM) and, second, setting up a computer model of the SSME HGM flow field. Using the test data to verify the computer model it should be possible in the future to computationally scan contemplated advanced design configurations and limit costly testing to the most promising design. The effort of establishing and using the computer model is detailed. The comparison of computational results and experimental data observed clearly demonstrate that computational fluid mechanics (CFD) techniques can be used successfully to predict the gross features of three dimensional fluid flow through configurations as intricate as the SSME turbopump hot gas manifold.

Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Katherine V.; Beach, Robert; Gurgel, Angelo; ...

2016-04-07

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this paper, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climatemore » mitigation policy, and (4) N 2O and CH 4 emissions intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.« less

Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Beach, Robert; Gurgel, Angelo

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this paper, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climatemore » mitigation policy, and (4) N 2O and CH 4 emissions intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.« less

The terminator mouse: salvation for primary cell culture.

PubMed

Kabgani, Nazanin; Moeller, Marcus J

2013-11-01

The Terminator had to come back from the future already several times in an effort to bring salvation to mankind. In the present issue of Kidney International, Guo et al. brought us a novel transgenic mouse model: the terminator mouse. This highly elegant mouse may facilitate significantly the derivation of primary cultures of a specific cell type from a tissue containing multiple cell populations.

2+2 Electronics Technology. Looking Forward to the Future. A Model Secondary/Post-Secondary 2+2 Program To Prepare Students for Employment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Judson Independent School District, Converse, TX.

This document contains all pertinent information and essential background data necessary to implement the 2+2 electronics program at the high school level. An introduction describes development of the electronics technology 2+2 project that was a joint effort among San Antonio College and Judson, Northside, and North East Independent School…

Paradigms for investigating rehabilitation and adaptation to childhood disability and chronic illness.

PubMed

Harper, D C

1991-10-01

Significant research perspectives in investigating chronic illness and disability are presented. Historical research conceptualizations in childhood disability are reviewed and newer contexts for evaluating disorder are presented. Future research in childhood illness and disability is directed toward basing investigations on theoretical models and promoting prospective longitudinal programs. Pediatric psychologists are encouraged to consider more collaborative efforts to move the field forward systematically.

High School 2.0: Can Philadephia's School of the Future Live up to Its Name?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mezzacappa, Dale

2010-01-01

In 2003, leaders at the School District of Philadelphia, district CEO Paul Vallas and chairman of the School Reform Commission James Nevels, enlisted the help of the Microsoft Corporation in a bold effort: reshape the archaic 19th-century high school model to better prepare students, especially urban students, to live and work in the 21st century.…

Interactive effects of ozone and climate on tree growth and water use in a southern Appalachian forest in the USA

Treesearch

S.B. McLaughlin; S.D. Wullschleger; G. Sun

2007-01-01

A lack of data on responses of mature tree growth and water use to ambient ozone (O3) concentrations has been a major limitation in efforts to understand and model responses of forests to current and future changes in climate.Here, hourly to seasonal patterns of stem growth and sap flow velocity were...

Planetary quarantine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Those areas of future missions which will be impacted by planetary quarantine (PQ) constraints were identified. The specific objectives for this reporting period were (1) to perform an analysis of the effects of PQ on an outer planet atmospheric probe, and (2) to prepare a quantitative illustration of spacecraft microbial reduction resulting from exposure to space environments. The Jupiter Orbiter Probe mission was used as a model for both of these efforts.

High efficiency silicon solar cell review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Godlewski, M. P. (Editor)

1975-01-01

An overview is presented of the current research and development efforts to improve the performance of the silicon solar cell. The 24 papers presented reviewed experimental and analytic modeling work which emphasizes the improvment of conversion efficiency and the reduction of manufacturing costs. A summary is given of the round-table discussion, in which the near- and far-term directions of future efficiency improvements were discussed.

Microgrid Modeling and Simulation Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

will be used to guide DOD M&S strategy and planning, as well as develop a comprehensive microgrid M&S capability and prioritize future efforts...contingencies and sequencing (Short term investment) Peer-to-peer Rapid send- listen techniques M&S is needed to determine an approach for handling...tactical microgrid network with interconnected grids. ○ Rapid Send- Listen Techniques is a specific enabler necessary for communications in a

Will the "Fixes" Fall Flat? Prospects for Quality Measures and Payment Incentives to Control Healthcare Spending.

PubMed

Hauswald, Erik; Sklar, David

2017-04-01

Payment systems in the US healthcare system have rewarded physicians for services and attempted to control healthcare spending, with rewards and penalties based upon projected goals for future spending. The incorporation of quality goals and alternatives to fee-for-service was introduced to replace the previous system of rewards and penalties. We describe the history of the US healthcare payment system, focusing on Medicare and the efforts to control spending through the Sustainable Growth Rate. We describe the latest evolution of the payment system, which emphasizes quality measurement and alternative payment models. We conclude with suggestions for how to influence physician behavior through education and payment reform so that their behavior aligns with alternative care models to control spending in the future.

Landscape Characterization and Representativeness Analysis for Understanding Sampling Network Coverage

DOE Data Explorer

Maddalena, Damian; Hoffman, Forrest; Kumar, Jitendra; Hargrove, William

2014-08-01

Sampling networks rarely conform to spatial and temporal ideals, often comprised of network sampling points which are unevenly distributed and located in less than ideal locations due to access constraints, budget limitations, or political conflict. Quantifying the global, regional, and temporal representativeness of these networks by quantifying the coverage of network infrastructure highlights the capabilities and limitations of the data collected, facilitates upscaling and downscaling for modeling purposes, and improves the planning efforts for future infrastructure investment under current conditions and future modeled scenarios. The work presented here utilizes multivariate spatiotemporal clustering analysis and representativeness analysis for quantitative landscape characterization and assessment of the Fluxnet, RAINFOR, and ForestGEO networks. Results include ecoregions that highlight patterns of bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables and quantitative representativeness maps of individual and combined networks.

Using the Whole School, Whole Community, Whole Child Model: Implications for Practice

PubMed Central

Rooney, Laura E; Videto, Donna M; Birch, David A

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Schools, school districts, and communities seeking to implement the Whole School, Whole Community, Whole Child (WSCC) model should carefully and deliberately select planning, implementation, and evaluation strategies. METHODS In this article, we identify strategies, steps, and resources within each phase that can be integrated into existing processes that help improve health outcomes and academic achievement. Implementation practices may vary across districts depending upon available resources and time commitments. RESULTS Obtaining and maintaining administrative support at the beginning of the planning phase is imperative for identifying and implementing strategies and sustaining efforts to improve student health and academic outcomes. Strategy selection hinges on priority needs, community assets, and resources identified through the planning process. Determining the results of implementing the WSCC is based upon a comprehensive evaluation that begins during the planning phase. Evaluation guides success in attaining goals and objectives, assesses strengths and weaknesses, provides direction for program adjustment, revision, and future planning, and informs stakeholders of the effect of WSCC, including the effect on academic indicators. CONCLUSIONS With careful planning, implementation, and evaluation efforts, use of the WSCC model has the potential of focusing family, community, and school education and health resources to increase the likelihood of better health and academic success for students and improve school and community life in the present and in the future. PMID:26440824

Toward a Visualization-Supported Workflow for Cyber Alert Management using Threat Models and Human-Centered Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, Lyndsey; Pirrung, Megan A.; Blaha, Leslie M.

Cyber network analysts follow complex processes in their investigations of potential threats to their network. Much research is dedicated to providing automated tool support in the effort to make their tasks more efficient, accurate, and timely. This tool support comes in a variety of implementations from machine learning algorithms that monitor streams of data to visual analytic environments for exploring rich and noisy data sets. Cyber analysts, however, often speak of a need for tools which help them merge the data they already have and help them establish appropriate baselines against which to compare potential anomalies. Furthermore, existing threat modelsmore » that cyber analysts regularly use to structure their investigation are not often leveraged in support tools. We report on our work with cyber analysts to understand they analytic process and how one such model, the MITRE ATT&CK Matrix [32], is used to structure their analytic thinking. We present our efforts to map specific data needed by analysts into the threat model to inform our eventual visualization designs. We examine data mapping for gaps where the threat model is under-supported by either data or tools. We discuss these gaps as potential design spaces for future research efforts. We also discuss the design of a prototype tool that combines machine-learning and visualization components to support cyber analysts working with this threat model.« less

Assessing the effects of fire disturbances on ecosystems: A scientific agenda for research and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoldt, D.L.; Peterson, D.L.; Keane, R.E.; Lenihan, J.M.; McKenzie, D.; Weise, D.R.; Sandberg, D.V.

1999-01-01

A team of fire scientists and resource managers convened 17-19 April 1996 in Seattle, Washington, to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems. Objectives of this workshop were to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations included a series of numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and responses focusing on (1) links among fire effects, fuels, and climate; (2) fire as a large-scale disturbance; (3) fire-effects modeling structures; and (4) managerial concerns, applications, and decision support. At the present time, understanding of fire effects and the ability to extrapolate fire-effects knowledge to large spatial scales are limited, because most data have been collected at small spatial scales for specific applications. Although we clearly need more large-scale fire-effects data, it will be more expedient to concentrate efforts on improving and linking existing models that simulate fire effects in a georeferenced format while integrating empirical data as they become available. A significant component of this effort should be improved communication between modelers and managers to develop modeling tools to use in a planning context. Another component of this modeling effort should improve our ability to predict the interactions of fire and potential climatic change at very large spatial scales. The priority issues and approaches described here provide a template for fire science and fire management programs in the next decade and beyond.

Effort-reward imbalance and self-rated health among Gambian healthcare professionals.

PubMed

Darboe, Amadou; Lin, I-Feng; Kuo, Hsien-Wen

2016-04-11

The effort-reward imbalance (ERI) model of work stress has been widely applied in investigating association between psychosocial factors at work and health. This study examined associations between perceived psychosocial work stress as measured by the ERI model and self-rated health (SRH) among nurses and environmental health officers (EHOs) working in secondary public healthcare facilities in the Gambia. A cross-sectional study on a random sample of 287 health care professionals (201 nurses and 86 EHOs). A 22-item ERI questionnaire was used to collect data on the psychosocial factors defined by the ERI model. SRH was assessed using a single item measure. The distribution of subjective health was not statistically different between nurses and EHOs. However, our study uncovered significant associations between perceived psychosocial work stress and subjective health. Specifically, we found that a perceived high effort-reward imbalance (ER-ratio > 1) is a significant risk factor for poor SRH, in both occupational groups. However, over-commitment was not significantly associated with poor SRH in the two groups. When efforts and rewards were considered as separate variables in the analysis, rewards were inversely associated with poor SRH in both groups. Because of the high perceived Effort-Reward Imbalance among healthcare professionals at secondary public healthcare facilities, it is necessary to modify working conditions through improvement of psychosocial work environment, such as reasonable allocation of resources to increase pay, incentives or other forms of rewards from government. Interventions that could mitigate and prevent stress at work are worth considering in future healthcare policies.

Black-and-white snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti) feeding behavior in a degraded forest fragment: clues to a stressed population.

PubMed

Huang, Zhi-Pang; Scott, Matthew B; Li, Yan-Peng; Ren, Guo-Peng; Xiang, Zuo-Fu; Cui, Liang-Wei; Xiao, Wen

2017-10-01

Rapid global deforestation has forced many of the world's primates to live in fragmented habitats, making the understanding of their behavioral responses to degraded and fragmented habitats a key challenge for their future protection and management. The black-and-white snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti) is an endangered species endemic to southwest China. The forest habitat ranges from near-continuous to fragmented. In this study, we investigated the activity budget and diet of a R. bieti population that live in an isolated and degraded habitat patch at Mt. Lasha in Yunnan Province, near the current southern limit of the species. We used our data along with data from six other sites in more-continuous habitats across its range to model factors that predict stress, including feeding effort and time feeding on lichens against potential predictive parameters. Models showed feeding effort across all sites increased with increasing altitude and latitude, and with decreasing food species diversity. There was also a strong positive relationship between feeding effort and time feeding lichens. The Mt. Lasha R. bieti population exploited a total of 36 food species, spending 80.2% of feeding time feeding on lichens, Bryoria spp. and Usnea longissima. These figures are more comparable to those living in the north than those living in the mid- and southern part of the species' range. Given the models for feeding effort and time feeding on lichens, the unexpectedly high time spend feeding on lichens and feeding effort relative to latitude and elevation are suggestive of a stressed population at Mt. Lasha.

Separate valuation subsystems for delay and effort decision costs.

PubMed

Prévost, Charlotte; Pessiglione, Mathias; Météreau, Elise; Cléry-Melin, Marie-Laure; Dreher, Jean-Claude

2010-10-20

Decision making consists of choosing among available options on the basis of a valuation of their potential costs and benefits. Most theoretical models of decision making in behavioral economics, psychology, and computer science propose that the desirability of outcomes expected from alternative options can be quantified by utility functions. These utility functions allow a decision maker to assign subjective values to each option under consideration by weighting the likely benefits and costs resulting from an action and to select the one with the highest subjective value. Here, we used model-based neuroimaging to test whether the human brain uses separate valuation systems for rewards (erotic stimuli) associated with different types of costs, namely, delay and effort. We show that humans devalue rewards associated with physical effort in a strikingly similar fashion to those they devalue that are associated with delays, and that a single computational model derived from economics theory can account for the behavior observed in both delay discounting and effort discounting. However, our neuroimaging data reveal that the human brain uses distinct valuation subsystems for different types of costs, reflecting in opposite fashion delayed reward and future energetic expenses. The ventral striatum and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex represent the increasing subjective value of delayed rewards, whereas a distinct network, composed of the anterior cingulate cortex and the anterior insula, represent the decreasing value of the effortful option, coding the expected expense of energy. Together, these data demonstrate that the valuation processes underlying different types of costs can be fractionated at the cerebral level.

SAM International Case Studies: DPV Analysis in Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCall, James D

Presentation demonstrates the use of the System Advisor Model (SAM) in international analyses, specifically Mexico. Two analyses are discussed with relation to SAM modelling efforts: 1) Customer impacts from changes to net metering and billing agreements and 2) Potential benefits of PV for Mexican solar customers, the Mexican Treasury, and the environment. Along with the SAM analyses, integration of the International Utility Rate Database (I-URDB) with SAM and future international SAM work are discussed. Presentation was created for the International Solar Energy Society's (ISES) webinar titled 'International use of the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM) with case studies'.

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Radojevic, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R; Leighton, Patrick A; Wu, Jianhong

2014-06-01

The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.

Climate change and adaptive water management measures in Chtouka Aït Baha region (Morocco).

PubMed

Seif-Ennasr, Marieme; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Hirich, Abdelaziz; Caroletti, Giulio Nils; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; El Morjani, Zine El Abidine; Beraaouz, El Hassane; McDonnell, Rachael A; Choukr-Allah, Redouane

2016-12-15

This study evaluates the effect on the availability of water resources for agriculture of expected future changes in precipitation and temperature distributions in north-western Africa. It also puts forward some locally derived adaptation strategies to climate change that can have a positive impact on water resources in the Chtouka Aït Baha region. Historical baselines of precipitation and temperature were derived using satellite data respectively from CHIRPS and CRU, while future projections of temperature and precipitation were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment database (CORDEX). Projections were also generated for two future periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Regional climate models and satellite data outputs were evaluated by calculating their bias and RMSE against historical baseline and observed data. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, temperature in the region shows an increase by 2°C for the 2030-2049 time period, and by 4 to 5°C towards the end of the 21st century. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation shows a reduction of 10 to 30% for the period 2030-2049, up to 60% for 2080-2099. Outputs from the climate change projections were used to force the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Simulation results indicate that water deficit at basin level will likely triple towards 2050 due to increase in water demand and decrease in aquifer recharge and dam storage. This alarming situation, in a country that already suffers from water insecurity, emphasizes the need for more efforts to implement climate change adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment of 38 climate change adaptation measures according to several criteria. The evaluation shows that measures affecting the management of water resources have the highest benefit-to-efforts ratio, which indicates that decision makers and stakeholders should increasingly focus their efforts on management measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Capabilities and performance of the new generation ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Mallinen, M.; Martin, C.; Raback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Schäfer, M.; Thies, J.

2012-12-01

Since the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, and its conclusion about the inability of ice-sheet flow models to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and associated contribution to sea-level rise, a huge development effort has been undertaken by the glaciological community. All around the world, models have been improved and, interestingly, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them, the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice (based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer) was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections of the future of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve dedicated local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. In this presentation, we summarise the almost 10 years of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planed for the future.

Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the model—at 0.5-degree resolution across the world—generates spatially explicit projections at a sub-national scale relevant to individual land managers. Here, we present the results of using the LPJ-GUESS-PLUM-IMOGEN coupled model to project agricultural production and management strategies under several scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (the Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic futures (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) through the year 2100. In the future, the coupled model could be used to generate projections for alternative scenarios: for example, to consider the implications from land-based climate change mitigation policies, or changes to international trade tariffs regimes.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Assessing Subjective Preferences for Future Fire Research

Treesearch

James B. Davis

1987-01-01

Methods are described for making comparative valuations of future fire (or any other) research efforts when the benefits that result from some of the efforts cannot be described in dollars. The process helps research managers and scientists set priorities by using the values and beliefs of skilled fire specialists. The objective is to insure coherent decisions...

A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2014-01-01

The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041–2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999–2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: −7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models. PMID:24764746

Predictors of responses to stress among families coping with poverty-related stress.

PubMed

Santiago, Catherine DeCarlo; Etter, Erica Moran; Wadsworth, Martha E; Raviv, Tali

2012-05-01

This study tested how poverty-related stress (PRS), psychological distress, and responses to stress predicted future effortful coping and involuntary stress responses one year later. In addition, we explored age, sex, ethnicity, and parental influences on responses to stress over time. Hierarchical linear modeling analyses conducted with 98 low-income families (300 family members: 136 adults, 82 school-aged children, 82 adolescents) revealed that primary control coping, secondary control coping, disengagement, involuntary engagement, and involuntary disengagement each significantly predicted future use of that response. Primary and secondary control coping also predicted less maladaptive future responses to stress, while involuntary responses to stress undermined the development of adaptive responding. Age, sex, and interactions among PRS and prior coping were also found to predict certain responses to stress. In addition, child subgroup analyses demonstrate the importance of parental modeling of coping and involuntary stress responses, and warmth/nurturance and monitoring practices. Results are discussed with regard to the implications for preventive interventions with families in poverty.

Next Generation Wind Turbine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheraghi, S. Hossein; Madden, Frank

The goal of this collaborative effort between Western New England University's College of Engineering and FloDesign Wind Turbine (FDWT) Corporation to wok on a novel areodynamic concept that could potentially lead to the next generation of wind turbines. Analytical studies and early scale model tests of FDWT's Mixer/Ejector Wind Turbine (MEWT) concept, which exploits jet-age advanced fluid dynamics, indicate that the concept has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of electricity over conventional Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines while reducing land usage. This project involved the design, fabrication, and wind tunnel testing of components of MEWT to provide the researchmore » and engineering data necessary to validate the design iterations and optimize system performance. Based on these tests, a scale model prototype called Briza was designed, fabricated, installed and tested on a portable tower to investigate and improve the design system in real world conditions. The results of these scale prototype efforts were very promising and have contributed significantly to FDWT's ongoing development of a product scale wind turbine for deployment in multiple locations around the U.S. This research was mutually beneficial to Western New England University, FDWT, and the DOE by utilizing over 30 student interns and a number of faculty in all efforts. It brought real-world wind turbine experience into the classroom to further enhance the Green Engineering Program at WNEU. It also provided on-the-job training to many students, improving their future employment opportunities, while also providing valuable information to further advance FDWT's mixer-ejector wind turbine technology, creating opportunities for future project innovation and job creation.« less

Bayesian Knowledge Fusion in Prognostics and Health Management—A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabiei, Masoud; Modarres, Mohammad; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

2011-03-01

In the past few years, a research effort has been in progress at University of Maryland to develop a Bayesian framework based on Physics of Failure (PoF) for risk assessment and fleet management of aging airframes. Despite significant achievements in modelling of crack growth behavior using fracture mechanics, it is still of great interest to find practical techniques for monitoring the crack growth instances using nondestructive inspection and to integrate such inspection results with the fracture mechanics models to improve the predictions. The ultimate goal of this effort is to develop an integrated probabilistic framework for utilizing all of the available information to come up with enhanced (less uncertain) predictions for structural health of the aircraft in future missions. Such information includes material level fatigue models and test data, health monitoring measurements and inspection field data. In this paper, a case study of using Bayesian fusion technique for integrating information from multiple sources in a structural health management problem is presented.

How alternative payment models in emergency medicine can benefit physicians, payers, and patients.

PubMed

Harish, Nir J; Miller, Harold D; Pines, Jesse M; Zane, Richard D; Wiler, Jennifer L

2017-06-01

While there has been considerable effort devoted to developing alternative payment models (APMs) for primary care physicians and for episodes of care beginning with inpatient admissions, there has been relatively little attention by payers to developing APMs for specialty ambulatory care, and no efforts to develop APMs that explicitly focus on emergency care. In order to ensure that emergency care is appropriately integrated and valued in future payment models, emergency physicians (EPs) must engage with the stakeholders within the broader health care system. In this article, we describe a framework for the development of APMs for emergency medicine and present four examples of APMs that may be applicable in emergency medicine. A better understanding of how APMs can work in emergency medicine will help EPs develop new APMs that improve the cost and quality of care, and leverage the value that emergency care brings to the system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future energy system in environment, economy, and energy problems (2) various nuclear energy system evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsui, Kazuaki; Ujita, Hiroshi; Tashimo, Masanori

2006-07-01

Role and potentials of nuclear energy system in the energy options are discussed from the viewpoint of sustainable development with protecting from global warming by using the energy module structure of GRAPE model. They change and are affected dramatically by different sets of energy characteristics, nuclear behavior and energy policy even under the moderate set of presumptions. Introduction of thousands of reactors in the end of the century seems inevitable for better life and cleaner earth, but it will not come without efforts and cost. The analysis suggests the need of long term planning and R and D efforts undermore » the wisdom. (authors)« less

Why We Need Evidence-Based, Community-Wide Approaches for Prevention of Teen Pregnancy.

PubMed

Barfield, Wanda D; Warner, Lee; Kappeler, Evelyn

2017-03-01

Teen pregnancy and childbearing have declined over the past two decades to historic lows. The most recent declines have occurred during a time of coordinated national efforts focused on teen pregnancy. This article highlights a federal partnership to reduce teen pregnancy through the implementation of innovative, evidence-based approaches in affected communities, with a focus on reaching African-American and Latino/Hispanic youth. This initiative has the potential to transform the design and implementation of future teen pregnancy prevention efforts and provide a model that can be replicated in communities across the nation. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the distribution of illicit oily discharges detected by aerial surveillance in western Canadian marine waters.

PubMed

Serra-Sogas, Norma; O'Hara, Patrick D; Canessa, Rosaline

2014-10-15

Oily discharges from vessel operations have been documented in Canada's Pacific region by the National Aerial Surveillance Program (NASP) since the early 1990s. We explored a number of regression methods to explain the distribution and counts per grid cell of oily discharges detected from 1998 to 2007 using independent predictor variables, while trying to address the large number of zeros present in the data. Best-fit models indicate that discharges are generally concentrated close to shore typically in association with small harbours, and with major commercial and tourist centers. Oily discharges were also concentrated in Barkley Sound and at the entrance of Juan de Fuca Strait. The identification of important factors associated with discharge patterns, and predicting discharge rates in areas with surveillance effort can be used to inform future surveillance. Model output can also be used as inputs for risk models for existing conditions and as baseline for future scenarios. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Middle Rio Grande Water Sustainability in Extreme Drought: Using Provenance to Trace Modeling Scenarios Selected by Users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. D.; Garnica Chavira, L.; Villanueva-Rosales, N.

2017-12-01

People living in the vicinity of the middle Rio Grande from Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico through Fort Quitman, Texas, including inhabitants on the Mexican side of the river, are confronted with numerous challenges that include drought, population growth, reduced surface water quality and quantity, declining aquifers, and expected future increases in temperature with more variable precipitation. The transboundary surface water is subject to complex regulation across two U.S. states and two nations (U.S. and Mexico). This presentation will summarize the modeling efforts of a USDA-funded project to characterize potential future solutions for water sustainability while managing agriculture, economic, and human impacts. It will present an online software system designed for rapid, flexible modeling of different climate, policy, and technology scenarios with stakeholders, and the underlying intelligent system that manages model selection, data and parameters, and user choices, and provides a provenance trace based on the W3C PROV standard.

Computational modeling of epidermal cell fate determination systems.

PubMed

Ryu, Kook Hui; Zheng, Xiaohua; Huang, Ling; Schiefelbein, John

2013-02-01

Cell fate decisions are of primary importance for plant development. Their simple 'either-or' outcome and dynamic nature has attracted the attention of computational modelers. Recent efforts have focused on modeling the determination of several epidermal cell types in the root and shoot of Arabidopsis where many molecular components have been defined. Results of integrated modeling and molecular biology experimentation in these systems have highlighted the importance of competitive positive and negative factors and interconnected feedback loops in generating flexible yet robust mechanisms for establishing distinct gene expression programs in neighboring cells. These models have proven useful in judging hypotheses and guiding future research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance and Reliability of Bonded Interfaces for High-temperature Packaging: Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVoto, Douglas J.

2017-10-19

As maximum device temperatures approach 200 °Celsius, continuous operation, sintered silver materials promise to maintain bonds at these high temperatures without excessive degradation rates. A detailed characterization of the thermal performance and reliability of sintered silver materials and processes has been initiated for the next year. Future steps in crack modeling include efforts to simulate crack propagation directly using the extended finite element method (X-FEM), a numerical technique that uses the partition of unity method for modeling discontinuities such as cracks in a system.

Gravitational waves from a first-order electroweak phase transition: a brief review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weir, David J.

2018-01-01

We review the production of gravitational waves by an electroweak first-order phase transition. The resulting signal is a good candidate for detection at next-generation gravitational wave detectors, such as LISA. Detection of such a source of gravitational waves could yield information about physics beyond the Standard Model that is complementary to that accessible to current and near-future collider experiments. We summarize efforts to simulate and model the phase transition and the resulting production of gravitational waves. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue `Higgs cosmology'.

On the use of fractional order PK-PD models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Clara; Copot, Dana

2017-01-01

Quantifying and controlling depth of anesthesia is a challenging process due to lack of measurement technology for direct effects of drug supply into the body. Efforts are being made to develop new sensor techniques and new horizons are explored for modeling this intricate process. This paper introduces emerging tools available on the ‘engineering market’ imported from the area of fractional calculus. A novel interpretation of the classical drug-effect curve is given, enabling linear control. This enables broadening the horizon of signal processing and control techniques and suggests future research lines.

Pelagic functional group modeling: Progress, challenges and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Raleigh R.; Laws, Edward A.; Armstrong, Robert A.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Carlson, Craig A.; Chai, Fei; Doney, Scott C.; Falkowski, Paul G.; Feely, Richard A.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Landry, Michael R.; Keith Moore, J.; Nelson, David M.; Richardson, Tammi L.; Salihoglu, Baris; Schartau, Markus; Toole, Dierdre A.; Wiggert, Jerry D.

2006-03-01

In this paper, we review the state of the art and major challenges in current efforts to incorporate biogeochemical functional groups into models that can be applied on basin-wide and global scales, with an emphasis on models that might ultimately be used to predict how biogeochemical cycles in the ocean will respond to global warming. We define the term "biogeochemical functional group" to refer to groups of organisms that mediate specific chemical reactions in the ocean. Thus, according to this definition, "functional groups" have no phylogenetic meaning—these are composed of many different species with common biogeochemical functions. Substantial progress has been made in the last decade toward quantifying the rates of these various functions and understanding the factors that control them. For some of these groups, we have developed fairly sophisticated models that incorporate this understanding, e.g. for diazotrophs (e.g. Trichodesmium), silica producers (diatoms) and calcifiers (e.g. coccolithophorids and specifically Emiliania huxleyi). However, current representations of nitrogen fixation and calcification are incomplete, i.e., based primarily upon models of Trichodesmium and E. huxleyi, respectively, and many important functional groups have not yet been considered in open-ocean biogeochemical models. Progress has been made over the last decade in efforts to simulate dimethylsulfide (DMS) production and cycling (i.e., by dinoflagellates and prymnesiophytes) and denitrification, but these efforts are still in their infancy, and many significant problems remain. One obvious gap is that virtually all functional group modeling efforts have focused on autotrophic microbes, while higher trophic levels have been completely ignored. It appears that in some cases (e.g., calcification), incorporating higher trophic levels may be essential not only for representing a particular biogeochemical reaction, but also for modeling export. Another serious problem is our tendency to model the organisms for which we have the most validation data (e.g., E. huxleyi and Trichodesmium) even when they may represent only a fraction of the biogeochemical functional group we are trying to represent. When we step back and look at the paleo-oceanographic record, it suggests that oxygen concentrations have played a central role in the evolution and emergence of many of the key functional groups that influence biogeochemical cycles in the present-day ocean. However, more subtle effects are likely to be important over the next century like changes in silicate supply or turbulence that can influence the relative success of diatoms versus dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and diazotrophs. In general, inferences drawn from the paleo-oceanographic record and theoretical work suggest that global warming will tend to favor the latter because it will give rise to increased stratification. However, decreases in pH and Fe supply could adversely impact coccolithophorids and diazotrophs in the future. It may be necessary to include explicit dynamic representations of nitrogen fixation, denitrification, silicification and calcification in our models if our goal is predicting the oceanic carbon cycle in the future, because these processes appear to play a very significant role in the carbon cycle of the present-day ocean and they are sensitive to climate change. Observations and models suggest that it may also be necessary to include the DMS cycle to predict future climate, though the effects are still highly uncertain. We have learned a tremendous amount about the distributions and biogeochemical impact of bacteria in the ocean in recent years, yet this improved understanding has not yet been incorporated into many of our models. All of these considerations lead us toward the development of increasingly complex models. However, recent quantitative model intercomparison studies suggest that continuing to add complexity and more functional groups to our ecosystem models may lead to decreases in predictive ability if the models are not properly constrained with available data. We also caution that capturing the present-day variability tells us little about how well a particular model can predict the future. If our goal is to develop models that can be used to predict how the oceans will respond to global warming, then we need to make more rigorous assessments of predictive skill using the available data.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Two decades of numerical modelling to understand long term fluvial archives: Advances and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, A.; Baartman, J. E. M.; Coulthard, T. J.; Maddy, D.; Schoorl, J. M.; Storms, J. E. A.; Temme, A. J. A. M.; van Balen, R.; van De Wiel, M. J.; van Gorp, W.; Viveen, W.; Westaway, R.; Whittaker, A. C.

2017-06-01

The development and application of numerical models to investigate fluvial sedimentary archives has increased during the last decades resulting in a sustained growth in the number of scientific publications with keywords, 'fluvial models', 'fluvial process models' and 'fluvial numerical models'. In this context we compile and review the current contributions of numerical modelling to the understanding of fluvial archives. In particular, recent advances, current limitations, previous unexpected results and future perspectives are all discussed. Numerical modelling efforts have demonstrated that fluvial systems can display non-linear behaviour with often unexpected dynamics causing significant delay, amplification, attenuation or blurring of externally controlled signals in their simulated record. Numerical simulations have also demonstrated that fluvial records can be generated by intrinsic dynamics without any change in external controls. Many other model applications demonstrate that fluvial archives, specifically of large fluvial systems, can be convincingly simulated as a function of the interplay of (palaeo) landscape properties and extrinsic climate, base level and crustal controls. All discussed models can, after some calibration, produce believable matches with real world systems suggesting that equifinality - where a given end state can be reached through many different pathways starting from different initial conditions and physical assumptions - plays an important role in fluvial records and their modelling. The overall future challenge lies in the development of new methodologies for a more independent validation of system dynamics and research strategies that allow the separation of intrinsic and extrinsic record signals using combined fieldwork and modelling.

The Urgent Need for Improved Climate Models and Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, Lisa; Baethgen, Walter; Kirtman, Ben; Meehl, Gerald

2009-09-01

An investment over the next 10 years of the order of US$2 billion for developing improved climate models was recommended in a report (http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_WorldModellingSummit_Jan2009.pdf) from the May 2008 World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, held in Reading, United Kingdom, and presented by the World Climate Research Programme. The report indicated that “climate models will, as in the past, play an important, and perhaps central, role in guiding the trillion dollar decisions that the peoples, governments and industries of the world will be making to cope with the consequences of changing climate.” If trillions of dollars are going to be invested in making decisions related to climate impacts, an investment of $2 billion, which is less than 0.1% of that amount, to provide better climate information seems prudent. One example of investment in adaptation is the World Bank's Climate Investment Fund, which has drawn contributions of more than $6 billion for work on clean technologies and adaptation efforts in nine pilot countries and two pilot regions. This is just the beginning of expenditures on adaptation efforts by the World Bank and other mechanisms, focusing on only a small fraction of the nations of the world and primarily aimed at anticipated anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, decisions are being made now, all around the world—by individuals, companies, and governments—that affect people and their livelihoods today, not just 50 or more years in the future. Climate risk management, whether related to projects of the scope of the World Bank's or to the planning and decisions of municipalities, will be best guided by meaningful climate information derived from observations of the past and model predictions of the future.

The present and the future of AIDS and tuberculosis in Illinois.

PubMed Central

Coté, T R; Nelson, M R; Anderson, S P; Martin, R J

1990-01-01

The relation between the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and tuberculosis (TB) was examined by matching the Illinois AIDS and TB registries. The match group was examined and compared with patients with only one disease by race, method of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, site of tuberculous disease, radiographic findings, and results of Mantoux tests. The time of TB diagnosis was centrally distributed around the time of AIDS diagnosis; from this, it was determined that 4.1 percent of AIDS patients develop active TB. Projections for future AIDS cases were made by fitting a polynomial model to historical data. These projections were then used to predict the future impact of AIDS-related TB upon state TB rates. The rise in TB rates call for special efforts to minimize this impact. PMID:2368856

Utilization management in radiology, part 2: perspectives and future directions.

PubMed

Duszak, Richard; Berlin, Jonathan W

2012-10-01

Increased utilization of medical imaging in the early part of the last decade has resulted in numerous efforts to reduce associated spending. Recent initiatives have focused on managing utilization with radiology benefits managers and real-time order entry decision support systems. Although these approaches might seem mutually exclusive and their application to radiology appears unique, the historical convergence and broad acceptance of both programs within the pharmacy sector may offer parallels for their potential future in medical imaging. In this second installment of a two-part series, anticipated trends in radiology utilization management are reviewed. Perspectives on current and future potential roles of radiologists in such initiatives are discussed, particularly in light of emerging physician payment models. Copyright © 2012 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Trout lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jabbari, A.; Boegman, L.; MacKay, M.; Hadley, K.; Paterson, A.; Jeziorski, A.; Nelligan, C.; Smol, J. P.

2016-02-01

Lake Trout are a rare and valuable natural resource that are threatened by multiple environmental stressors. With the added threat of climate warming, there is growing concern among resource managers that increased thermal stratification will reduce the habitat quality of deep-water Lake Trout lakes through enhanced oxygen depletion. To address this issue, a three-part study is underway, which aims to: analyze sediment cores to understand the past, develop empirical formulae to model the present and apply computational models to forecast the future. This presentation reports on the computational modeling efforts. To this end, a simple dissolved oxygen sub-model has been embedded in the one-dimensional bulk mixed-layer thermodynamic Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM). This model is currently being incorporated into the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), the primary land surface component of Environment Canada's global and regional climate modelling systems. The oxygen model was calibrated and validated by hind-casting temperature and dissolved oxygen profiles from two Lake Trout lakes on the Canadian Shield. These data sets include 5 years of high-frequency (10 s to 10 min) data from Eagle Lake and 30 years of bi-weekly data from Harp Lake. Initial results show temperature and dissolved oxygen was predicted with root mean square error <1.5 °C and <3 mgL-1, respectively. Ongoing work is validating the model, over climate-change relevant timescales, against dissolved oxygen reconstructions from the sediment cores and predicting future deep-water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations in Canadian Lake Trout lakes under future climate change scenarios. This model will provide a useful tool for managers to ensure sustainable fishery resources for future generations.

Analysis Methods for Progressive Damage of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, Cheryl A.; Davila, Carlos G.; Leone, Frank A.

2013-01-01

This document provides an overview of recent accomplishments and lessons learned in the development of general progressive damage analysis methods for predicting the residual strength and life of composite structures. These developments are described within their State-of-the-Art (SoA) context and the associated technology barriers. The emphasis of the authors is on developing these analysis tools for application at the structural level. Hence, modeling of damage progression is undertaken at the mesoscale, where the plies of a laminate are represented as a homogenous orthotropic continuum. The aim of the present effort is establish the ranges of validity of available models, to identify technology barriers, and to establish the foundations of the future investigation efforts. Such are the necessary steps towards accurate and robust simulations that can replace some of the expensive and time-consuming "building block" tests that are currently required for the design and certification of aerospace structures.

Experience Transitioning Models and Data at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas

2016-07-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has a long history of transitioning research data and models into operations and with the validation activities required. The first stage in this process involves demonstrating that the capability has sufficient value to customers to justify the cost needed to transition it and to run it continuously and reliably in operations. Once the overall value is demonstrated, a substantial effort is then required to develop the operational software from the research codes. The next stage is to implement and test the software and product generation on the operational computers. Finally, effort must be devoted to establishing long-term measures of performance, maintaining the software, and working with forecasters, customers, and researchers to improve over time the operational capabilities. This multi-stage process of identifying, transitioning, and improving operational space weather capabilities will be discussed using recent examples. Plans for future activities will also be described.

Abundance and recruitment data for Undaria pinnatifida in Brest harbour, France: Model versus field results.

PubMed

Murphy, James T; Voisin, Marie; Johnson, Mark; Viard, Frédérique

2016-06-01

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "A modelling approach to explore the critical environmental parameters influencing the growth and establishment of the invasive seaweed Undaria pinnatifida in Europe" [1]. This article describes raw simulation data output from a novel individual-based model of the invasive kelp species Undaria pinnatifida. It also includes field data of monthly abundance and recruitment values for a population of invasive U. pinnatifida (in Brest harbour, France) that were used to validate the model. The raw model output and field data are made publicly available in order to enable critical analysis of the model predictions and to inform future modelling efforts of the study species.

Suspension Parameter Measurements of Wheeled Military Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

suspension through the wheel pads. The SPIdER was designed so that in the future, with a modest amount of modification , it can be upgraded to include the...AND MOBILITY (P&M) MINI-SYMPOSIUM AUGUST 14-16, MICHIGAN SUSPENSION PARAMETER MEASUREMENTS OF WHEELED MILITARY VEHICLES Dale Andreatta Gary...was built to measure the suspension parameters of any military wheeled vehicle. This is part of an ongoing effort to model and predict vehicle

Effect of Split-File Digital Workflow on Crown Margin Adaptation

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-30

you in your future publication/presentation efforts. LINDA STEEL -GOODWIN, Col, USAF, BSC Director, Clinical Investigations & Research Support...METHODS Multiple pilot studies were completed to define a working model with appropriate restoration settings ( cement gap 20 µm, extra cement gap 40...depressions for standardization. Right: Zirconia and e.max restorations had a cement gap (CG) = 20 µm ; extra cement gap (ECG) = 40 µm, and distance to

Applying the lessons of maternal mortality reduction to global emergency health

PubMed Central

Skog, Alexander P; Tenner, Andrea G; Wallis, Lee A

2015-01-01

Abstract Over the last few decades, maternal health has been a major focus of the international community and this has resulted in a substantial decrease in maternal mortality globally. Although, compared with maternal illness, medical and surgical emergencies account for far more morbidity and mortality, there has been less focus on global efforts to improve comprehensive emergency systems. The thoughtful and specific application of the concepts used in the effort to decrease maternal mortality could lead to major improvements in global emergency health services. The so-called three-delay model that was developed for maternal mortality can be adapted to emergency service delivery. Adaptation of evaluation frameworks to include emergency sentinel conditions could allow effective monitoring of emergency facilities and further policy development. Future global emergency health efforts may benefit from incorporating strategies for the planning and evaluation of high-impact interventions. PMID:26240463

Coping with Chronic Illness in Childhood and Adolescence

PubMed Central

Compas, Bruce E.; Jaser, Sarah S.; Dunn, Madeleine J.; Rodriguez, Erin M.

2012-01-01

Chronic illnesses and medical conditions present millions of children and adolescents with significant stress that is associated with risk for emotional and behavioral problems and interferes with adherence to treatment regimens. We review research on the role of child and adolescent coping with stress as an important feature of the process of adaptation to illness. Recent findings support a control-based model of coping that includes primary control or active coping (efforts to act on the source of stress or one’s emotions), secondary control or accommodative coping (efforts to adapt to the source of stress), and disengagement or passive coping (efforts to avoid or deny the stressor). Evidence suggests the efficacy of secondary control coping in successful adaptation to chronic illness in children and adolescents, disengagement coping is associated with poorer adjustment, and findings for primary control coping are mixed. Avenues for future research are highlighted. PMID:22224836

Attributions to Failure: The Effects of Effort, Ability, and Learning Strategy Use on Perceptions of Future Goals and Emotional Responses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holschuh, Jodi Patrick; Nist, Sherrie L.; Olejnik, Stephen

2001-01-01

Examines college students' attributions to failure in an introductory biology course. Determines how males and females viewed the attributions of ability, effort, and learning strategy use. Concludes that collectively, results indicate differences in patterns of responses between future goal and emotional items. Notes the importance for…

Advanced Curation Activities at NASA: Preparing to Receive, Process, and Distribute Samples Returned from Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCubbin, Francis M.; Zeigler, Ryan A.

2017-01-01

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10F JSC is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. The Directive goes on to define Curation as including documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for research, education, and public outreach. Here we briefly describe NASA's astromaterials collections and our ongoing efforts related to enhancing the utility of our current collections as well as our efforts to prepare for future sample return missions. We collectively refer to these efforts as advanced curation.

Advanced Curation Activities at NASA: Implications for Astrobiological Studies of Future Sample Collections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCubbin, F. M.; Evans, C. A.; Fries, M. D.; Harrington, A. D.; Regberg, A. B.; Snead, C. J.; Zeigler, R. A.

2017-01-01

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10F JSC is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. The Directive goes on to define Curation as including documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for re-search, education, and public outreach. Here we briefly describe NASA's astromaterials collections and our ongoing efforts related to enhancing the utility of our current collections as well as our efforts to prepare for future sample return missions. We collectively refer to these efforts as advanced curation.

Overcoming translational barriers impeding development of Alzheimer's disease modifying therapies.

PubMed

Golde, Todd E

2016-10-01

It has now been ~ 30 years since the Alzheimer's disease (AD) research entered what may be termed the 'molecular era' that began with the identification of the amyloid β protein (Aβ) as the primary component of amyloid within senile plaques and cerebrovascular amyloid and the microtubule-associated protein tau as the primary component of neurofibrillary tangles in the AD brain. These pivotal discoveries and the subsequent genetic, pathological, and modeling studies supporting pivotal roles for tau and Aβ aggregation and accumulation have provided firm rationale for a new generation of AD therapies designed not to just provide symptomatic benefit, but as disease modifying agents that would slow or even reverse the disease course. Indeed, over the last 20 years numerous therapeutic strategies for disease modification have emerged, been preclinically validated, and advanced through various stages of clinical testing. Unfortunately, no therapy has yet to show significant clinical disease modification. In this review, I describe 10 translational barriers to successful disease modification, highlight current efforts addressing some of these barriers, and discuss how the field could focus future efforts to overcome barriers that are not major foci of current research efforts. Seminal discoveries made over the past 25 years have provided firm rationale for a new generation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) therapies designed as disease modifying agents that would slow or even reverse the disease course. Unfortunately, no therapy has yet to show significant clinical disease modification. In this review, I describe 10 translational barriers to successful AD disease modification, highlight current efforts addressing some of these barriers, and discuss how the field could focus future efforts to overcome these barriers. This article is part of the 60th Anniversary special issue. © 2016 International Society for Neurochemistry.

The evolution of life-history variation in fishes, with particular reference to flatfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roff, Derek A.

This paper explores four aspects of the evolution of life-history variation in fish, with particular reference to the flatfishes: 1. genetic variation and evolutionary response; 2. the size and age at first reproduction; 3. adult lifespan and variation in recruitment; 4. the relationship between reproductive effort and age. Evolutionary response may be limited by previous evolutionary pathways (phylogenetic variation) or by lack of genetic variation due to selection for a single trait. Estimates of heritability suggest, as predicted, that selection is stronger on life-history traits than morphological traits; but there is still adequate genetic variation to permit fairly rapid evolutionary changes. Several approaches to the analysis of the optimal age and size at first reproduction are discussed in the light of a general life-history model based on the assumption that natural selection maximizes r or R 0. It is concluded that one of the most important areas of future research is the relationship between reproduction and mortality. Murphy's hypothesis that the reproductive lifespan should increase with variation in spawning success is shown to be incorrect for fish, at least at the level of interspecific comparison. The model of Charlesworth & León predicting the sufficient condition for reproductive effort to increase with age is tested: in 28 of 31 cases the model predicts an increase of reproductive effort with age. These results suggest that, in general, reproductive effort should increase with age in fish. This prediction is confirmed in the 15 species for which adequate data exist.

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

PubMed

Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

2014-06-01

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of uncertainty on modeling and testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coleman, Hugh W.; Brown, Kendall K.

1995-01-01

A thorough understanding of the uncertainties associated with the modeling and testing of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Engine will greatly aid decisions concerning hardware performance and future development efforts. This report will describe the determination of the uncertainties in the modeling and testing of the Space Shuttle Main Engine test program at the Technology Test Bed facility at Marshall Space Flight Center. Section 2 will present a summary of the uncertainty analysis methodology used and discuss the specific applications to the TTB SSME test program. Section 3 will discuss the application of the uncertainty analysis to the test program and the results obtained. Section 4 presents the results of the analysis of the SSME modeling effort from an uncertainty analysis point of view. The appendices at the end of the report contain a significant amount of information relative to the analysis, including discussions of venturi flowmeter data reduction and uncertainty propagation, bias uncertainty documentations, technical papers published, the computer code generated to determine the venturi uncertainties, and the venturi data and results used in the analysis.

A Data-Driven Framework for Incorporating New Tools for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This talk was given during the “Exposure-Based Toxicity Testing” session at the annual meeting of the International Society for Exposure Science. It provided an update on the state of the science and tools that may be employed in risk-based prioritization efforts. It outlined knowledge gained from the data provided using these high-throughput tools to assess chemical bioactivity and to predict chemical exposures and also identified future needs. It provided an opportunity to showcase ongoing research efforts within the National Exposure Research Laboratory and the National Center for Computational Toxicology within the Office of Research and Development to an international audience. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

2018-03-01

We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

Insights from Modeling the Integrated Climate, Biogeochemical Cycles, Human Activities and Their Interactions in the ACME Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Thornton, P. E.; Riley, W. J.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

Towards the goal of understanding the contributions from natural and managed systems to current and future greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon-climate and carbon-CO2 feedbacks, efforts have been underway to improve representations of the terrestrial, river, and human components of the ACME earth system model. Broadly, our efforts include implementation and comparison of approaches to represent the nutrient cycles and nutrient limitations on ecosystem production, extending the river transport model to represent sediment and riverine biogeochemistry, and coupling of human systems such as irrigation, reservoir operations, and energy and land use with the ACME land and river components. Numerical experiments have been designed to understand how terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles regulate climate system feedbacks and the sensitivity of the feedbacks to different model treatments, examine key processes governing sediment and biogeochemistry in the rivers and their role in the carbon cycle, and exploring the impacts of human systems in perturbing the hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions. This presentation will briefly introduce the ACME modeling approaches and discuss preliminary results and insights from numerical experiments that lay the foundation for improving understanding of the integrated climate-biogeochemistry-human system.

Clouds and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Final report, September 15, 1992--September 14, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, D.A.; Jensen, T.G.

1995-10-01

Predictions of global change based on climate models are influencing both national and international policies on energy and the environment. Existing climate models show some skill in simulating the present climate, but suffer from many widely acknowledged deficiencies. Among the most serious problems is the need to apply ``flux corrections`` to prevent the models from drifting away from the observed climate in control runs that do not include external perturbing influences such as increased carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations. The flux corrections required to prevent climate drift are typically comparable in magnitude to the observed fluxes themselves. Although there canmore » be many contributing reasons for the climate drift problem, clouds and their effects on the surface energy budget are among the prime suspects. The authors have conducted a research program designed to investigate global air-sea interaction as it relates to the global warming problem, with special emphasis on the role of clouds. Their research includes model development efforts; application of models to simulation of present and future climates, with comparison to observations wherever possible; and vigorous participation in ongoing efforts to intercompare the present generation of atmospheric general circulation models.« less

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE PAGES

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.; ...

2017-09-18

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Learning how the electron transport chain works: independent and interactive effects of instructional strategies and learners' characteristics.

PubMed

Darabi, Aubteen; Arrastia-Lloyd, Meagan C; Nelson, David W; Liang, Xinya; Farrell, Jennifer

2015-12-01

In order to develop an expert-like mental model of complex systems, causal reasoning is essential. This study examines the differences between forward and backward instructional strategies' in terms of efficiency, students' learning and progression of their mental models of the electronic transport chain in an undergraduate metabolism course (n = 151). Additionally, the participants' cognitive flexibility, prior knowledge, and mental effort in the learning process are also investigated. The data were analyzed using a series of general linear models to compare the strategies. Although the two strategies did not differ significantly in terms of mental model progression and learning outcomes, both groups' mental models progressed significantly. Mental effort and prior knowledge were identified as significant predictors of mental model progression. An interaction between instructional strategy and cognitive flexibility revealed that the backward instruction was more efficient than the conventional (forward) strategy for students with lower cognitive flexibility, whereas the conventional instruction was more efficient for students with higher cognitive flexibility. The results are discussed and suggestions for future research on the possible moderating role of cognitive flexibility in the area of health education are presented.

Nuclear thermal propulsion engine system design analysis code development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman J.; Ivanenok, Joseph F.

1992-01-01

A Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) Engine System Design Analyis Code has recently been developed to characterize key NTP engine system design features. Such a versatile, standalone NTP system performance and engine design code is required to support ongoing and future engine system and vehicle design efforts associated with proposed Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions of interest. Key areas of interest in the engine system modeling effort were the reactor, shielding, and inclusion of an engine multi-redundant propellant pump feed system design option. A solid-core nuclear thermal reactor and internal shielding code model was developed to estimate the reactor's thermal-hydraulic and physical parameters based on a prescribed thermal output which was integrated into a state-of-the-art engine system design model. The reactor code module has the capability to model graphite, composite, or carbide fuels. Key output from the model consists of reactor parameters such as thermal power, pressure drop, thermal profile, and heat generation in cooled structures (reflector, shield, and core supports), as well as the engine system parameters such as weight, dimensions, pressures, temperatures, mass flows, and performance. The model's overall analysis methodology and its key assumptions and capabilities are summarized in this paper.

Systems engineering in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project: an application of model based systems engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claver, C. F.; Selvy, Brian M.; Angeli, George; Delgado, Francisco; Dubois-Felsmann, Gregory; Hascall, Patrick; Lotz, Paul; Marshall, Stuart; Schumacher, German; Sebag, Jacques

2014-08-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project was an early adopter of SysML and Model Based Systems Engineering practices. The LSST project began using MBSE for requirements engineering beginning in 2006 shortly after the initial release of the first SysML standard. Out of this early work the LSST's MBSE effort has grown to include system requirements, operational use cases, physical system definition, interfaces, and system states along with behavior sequences and activities. In this paper we describe our approach and methodology for cross-linking these system elements over the three classical systems engineering domains - requirement, functional and physical - into the LSST System Architecture model. We also show how this model is used as the central element to the overall project systems engineering effort. More recently we have begun to use the cross-linked modeled system architecture to develop and plan the system verification and test process. In presenting this work we also describe "lessons learned" from several missteps the project has had with MBSE. Lastly, we conclude by summarizing the overall status of the LSST's System Architecture model and our plans for the future as the LSST heads toward construction.

Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid

PubMed Central

Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Treglia, Michael L.; Grant, William E.; Smeins, Fred E.; Rogers, William E.

2015-01-01

Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also incorporate new information on S. parksii as it becomes available to improve prediction accuracy, and our methodology could be adapted to develop distribution maps for other rare species of conservation concern. PMID:25900746

Adapting water treatment design and operations to the impacts of global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert M.; Li, Zhiwei; Buchberger, Steven G.

2011-12-01

It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and will therefore, potentially, impact the design and operation of current and future water treatment systems. The USEPA has initiated an effort called the Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP) which is intended to develop tools and techniques that can assess the impact of global climate change on urban drinking water and wastewater infrastructure. A three step approach for assessing climate change impacts on water treatment operation and design is being persude in this effort. The first step is the stochastic characterization of source water quality, the second step is the application of the USEPA Water Treatment Plant model and the third step is the application of cost algorithms to provide a metric that can be used to assess the coat impact of climate change. A model has been validated using data collected from Cincinnati's Richard Miller Water Treatment Plant for the USEPA Information Collection Rule (ICR) database. An analysis of the water treatment processes in response to assumed perturbations in raw water quality identified TOC, pH, and bromide as the three most important parameters affecting performance of the Miller WTP. The Miller Plant was simulated using the EPA WTP model to examine the impact of these parameters on selected regulated water quality parameters. Uncertainty in influent water quality was analyzed to estimate the risk of violating drinking water maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).Water quality changes in the Ohio River were projected for 2050 using Monte Carlo simulation and the WTP model was used to evaluate the effects of water quality changes on design and operation. Results indicate that the existing Miller WTP might not meet Safe Drinking Water Act MCL requirements for certain extreme future conditions. However, it was found that the risk of MCL violations under future conditions could be controlled by enhancing existing WTP design and operation or by process retrofitting and modification.

Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid.

PubMed

Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L; Treglia, Michael L; Grant, William E; Smeins, Fred E; Rogers, William E

2015-04-21

Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also incorporate new information on S. parksii as it becomes available to improve prediction accuracy, and our methodology could be adapted to develop distribution maps for other rare species of conservation concern. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Model-based engineering for laser weapons systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthaki, Malcolm; Coy, Steve

2011-10-01

The Comet Performance Engineering Workspace is an environment that enables integrated, multidisciplinary modeling and design/simulation process automation. One of the many multi-disciplinary applications of the Comet Workspace is for the integrated Structural, Thermal, Optical Performance (STOP) analysis of complex, multi-disciplinary space systems containing Electro-Optical (EO) sensors such as those which are designed and developed by and for NASA and the Department of Defense. The CometTM software is currently able to integrate performance simulation data and processes from a wide range of 3-D CAD and analysis software programs including CODE VTM from Optical Research Associates and SigFitTM from Sigmadyne Inc. which are used to simulate the optics performance of EO sensor systems in space-borne applications. Over the past year, Comet Solutions has been working with MZA Associates of Albuquerque, NM, under a contract with the Air Force Research Laboratories. This funded effort is a "risk reduction effort", to help determine whether the combination of Comet and WaveTrainTM, a wave optics systems engineering analysis environment developed and maintained by MZA Associates and used by the Air Force Research Laboratory, will result in an effective Model-Based Engineering (MBE) environment for the analysis and design of laser weapons systems. This paper will review the results of this effort and future steps.

Promoting Lifelong Ocean Education: Shaping Tomorrow's Earth Stewards and the Science and Technology Workforce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meeson, Blanche

2006-01-01

The coming ocean observing systems provide an unprecedented opportunity to change both the public perception of our oceans, and to inspire, captivate and motivate our children, our young adults and even our fellow adults to pursue careers allied with the oceans and to become stewards of our Planet's last unexplored environment. Education plans for the operational component, the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), and for the research component, Ocean Research Interactive Observatory Networks (ORION), are designed to take advantage of this opportunity. In both cases, community recommendations were developed within the context of the following assumptions: 1. Utilize research on how people learn, especially the four-pronged model of simultaneous learner-centered, knowledge-center, assessment-centered and community-centered learning 2. Strive for maximum impact on national needs in science and technology learning 3. Build on the best of what is already in place 4. Pay special attention to quality, sustainability, and scalability of efforts 5. Use partnerships across federal, state and local government, academia, and industry. Community recommendations for 100s and ORION education have much in common and offer the opportunity to create a coherent education effort allied with ocean observing systems. Both efforts focus on developing the science and technology workforce of the future, and the science and technology literacy of the public within the context of the Earth system and the role of the oceans and Great Lakes in that system. Both also recognize that an organized education infrastructure that supports sustainability and scalability of education efforts is required if ocean observing education efforts are to achieve a small but measurable improvement in either of these areas. Efforts have begun to develop the education infrastructure by beginning to form a community of educators from existing ocean and aquatic education networks and by exploring needs and issues associated with using ocean observing information assets in education. Likewise efforts are underway to address workforce issues by a systematic analysis of current and future workforce and educational needs. These activities will be described as will upcoming opportunities for the community to participate in these efforts.

Future orientation: a construct with implications for adolescent health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Johnson, Sarah R Lindstrom; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L

2014-01-01

Multidisciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies - for example, contracepting, exercising - are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits.

Future Orientation: A Construct with Implications for Adolescent Health and Wellbeing

PubMed Central

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L.

2016-01-01

Multi-disciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies—for example contracepting, exercising—are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits. PMID:24523304

Mathematical modeling of human cardiovascular system for simulation of orthostatic response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melchior, F. M.; Srinivasan, R. S.; Charles, J. B.

1992-01-01

This paper deals with the short-term response of the human cardiovascular system to orthostatic stresses in the context of developing a mathematical model of the overall system. It discusses the physiological issues involved and how these issues have been handled in published cardiovascular models for simulation of orthostatic response. Most of the models are stimulus specific with no demonstrated capability for simulating the responses to orthostatic stimuli of different types. A comprehensive model incorporating all known phenomena related to cardiovascular regulation would greatly help to interpret the various orthostatic responses of the system in a consistent manner and to understand the interactions among its elements. This paper provides a framework for future efforts in mathematical modeling of the entire cardiovascular system.

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia - status and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi

2017-02-01

Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

Organ-on-chip models of cancer metastasis for future personalized medicine: From chip to the patient.

PubMed

Caballero, D; Kaushik, S; Correlo, V M; Oliveira, J M; Reis, R L; Kundu, S C

2017-12-01

Most cancer patients do not die from the primary tumor but from its metastasis. Current in vitro and in vivo cancer models are incapable of satisfactorily predicting the outcome of various clinical treatments on patients. This is seen as a serious limitation and efforts are underway to develop a new generation of highly predictive cancer models with advanced capabilities. In this regard, organ-on-chip models of cancer metastasis emerge as powerful predictors of disease progression. They offer physiological-like conditions where the (hypothesized) mechanistic determinants of the disease can be assessed with ease. Combined with high-throughput characteristics, the employment of organ-on-chip technology would allow pharmaceutical companies and clinicians to test new therapeutic compounds and therapies. This will permit the screening of a large battery of new drugs in a fast and economic manner, to accelerate the diagnosis of the disease in the near future, and to test personalized treatments using cells from patients. In this review, we describe the latest advances in the field of organ-on-chip models of cancer metastasis and their integration with advanced imaging, screening and biosensing technologies for future precision medicine applications. We focus on their clinical applicability and market opportunities to drive us forward to the next generation of tumor models for improved cancer patient theranostics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational methods for a three-dimensional model of the petroleum-discovery process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuenemeyer, J.H.; Bawiec, W.J.; Drew, L.J.

1980-01-01

A discovery-process model devised by Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root can be used to predict the amount of petroleum to be discovered in a basin from some future level of exploratory effort: the predictions are based on historical drilling and discovery data. Because marginal costs of discovery and production are a function of field size, the model can be used to make estimates of future discoveries within deposit size classes. The modeling approach is a geometric one in which the area searched is a function of the size and shape of the targets being sought. A high correlation is assumed between the surface-projection area of the fields and the volume of petroleum. To predict how much oil remains to be found, the area searched must be computed, and the basin size and discovery efficiency must be estimated. The basin is assumed to be explored randomly rather than by pattern drilling. The model may be used to compute independent estimates of future oil at different depth intervals for a play involving multiple producing horizons. We have written FORTRAN computer programs that are used with Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root's model to merge the discovery and drilling information and perform the necessary computations to estimate undiscovered petroleum. These program may be modified easily for the estimation of remaining quantities of commodities other than petroleum. ?? 1980.

The International Reference Ionosphere Today and in the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilitza, Dieter; McKinnell, Lee-Ane; Reinisch, Bodo; Fuller-Rowell,Tim

2010-01-01

The international reference ionosphere (IRI) is the internationally recognized and recommended standard for the specification of plasma parameters in Earth's ionosphere. It describes monthly averages of electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, ion composition, and several additional parameters in the altitude range from 60 to 1,500 km. A joint working group of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) is in charge of developing and improving the IRI model. As requested by COSPAR and URSI, IRI is an empirical model being based on most of the available and reliable data sources for the ionospheric plasma. The paper describes the latest version of the model and reviews efforts towards future improvements, including the development of new global models for the F2 peak density and height, and a new approach to describe the electron density in the topside and plasmasphere. Our emphasis will be on the electron density because it is the IRI parameter most relevant to geodetic techniques and studies. Annual IRI meetings are the main venue for the discussion of IRI activities, future improvements, and additions to the model. A new special IRI task force activity is focusing on the development of a real-time IRI (RT-IRI) by combining data assimilation techniques with the IRI model. A first RT-IRI task force meeting was held in 2009 in Colorado Springs. We will review the outcome of this meeting and the plans for the future. The IRI homepage is at http://www.IRI.gsfc.nasa.gov

A reputation for success (or failure): the association of peer academic reputations with academic self-concept, effort, and performance across the upper elementary grades.

PubMed

Gest, Scott D; Rulison, Kelly L; Davidson, Alice J; Welsh, Janet A

2008-05-01

The associations between children's academic reputations among peers and their academic self-concept, effort, and performance were examined in a longitudinal study of 427 students initially enrolled in Grades 3, 4, and 5. Assessments were completed in the fall and spring of 2 consecutive school years and in the fall of a 3rd school year. Peer academic reputation (PAR) correlated moderately strongly with teacher-rated skills and changed over time as a function of grades earned at the prior assessment. Path-analytic models indicated bidirectional associations between PAR and academic self-concept, teacher-rated academic effort, and grade point average. There was little evidence that changes in self-concept mediated the association between PAR and effort and GPA or that changes in effort mediated the association between PAR and GPA. Results suggest that peers may possess unique information about classmates' academic functioning, that children's PARs are psychologically meaningful, and that these reputations may serve as a useful marker of processes that forecast future academic engagement and performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).

Psychological and neural mechanisms associated with effort-related cardiovascular reactivity and cognitive control: An integrative approach.

PubMed

Silvestrini, Nicolas

2017-09-01

Numerous studies have assessed cardiovascular (CV) reactivity as a measure of effort mobilization during cognitive tasks. However, psychological and neural processes underlying effort-related CV reactivity are still relatively unclear. Previous research reliably found that CV reactivity during cognitive tasks is mainly determined by one region of the brain, the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC), and that this region is systematically engaged during cognitively demanding tasks. The present integrative approach builds on the research on cognitive control and its brain correlates that shows that dACC function can be related to conflict monitoring and integration of information related to task difficulty and success importance-two key variables in determining effort mobilization. In contrast, evidence also indicates that executive cognitive functioning is processed in more lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex. The resulting model suggests that, when automatic cognitive processes are insufficient to sustain behavior, the dACC determines the amount of required and justified effort according to task difficulty and success importance, which leads to proportional adjustments in CV reactivity and executive cognitive functioning. These propositions are discussed in relation to previous findings on effort-related CV reactivity and cognitive performance, new predictions for future studies, and relevance for other self-regulatory processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurt, Christopher J.; Freels, James D.; Hobbs, Randy W.

There has been a considerable effort over the previous few years to demonstrate and optimize the production of plutonium-238 ( 238Pu) at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). This effort has involved resources from multiple divisions and facilities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to demonstrate the fabrication, irradiation, and chemical processing of targets containing neptunium-237 ( 237Np) dioxide (NpO 2)/aluminum (Al) cermet pellets. A critical preliminary step to irradiation at the HFIR is to demonstrate the safety of the target under irradiation via documented experiment safety analyses. The steady-state thermal safety analyses of the target are simulated inmore » a finite element model with the COMSOL Multiphysics code that determines, among other crucial parameters, the limiting maximum temperature in the target. Safety analysis efforts for this model discussed in the present report include: (1) initial modeling of single and reduced-length pellet capsules in order to generate an experimental knowledge base that incorporate initial non-linear contact heat transfer and fission gas equations, (2) modeling efforts for prototypical designs of partially loaded and fully loaded targets using limited available knowledge of fabrication and irradiation characteristics, and (3) the most recent and comprehensive modeling effort of a fully coupled thermo-mechanical approach over the entire fully loaded target domain incorporating burn-up dependent irradiation behavior and measured target and pellet properties, hereafter referred to as the production model. These models are used to conservatively determine several important steady-state parameters including target stresses and temperatures, the limiting condition of which is the maximum temperature with respect to the melting point. The single pellet model results provide a basis for the safety of the irradiations, followed by parametric analyses in the initial prototypical designs that were necessary due to the limiting fabrication and irradiation data available. The calculated parameters in the final production target model are the most accurate and comprehensive, while still conservative. Over 210 permutations in irradiation time and position were evaluated, and are supported by the most recent inputs and highest fidelity methodology. The results of these analyses show that the models presented in this report provide a robust and reliable basis for previous, current and future experiment safety analyses. In addition, they reveal an evolving knowledge of the steady-state behavior of the NpO 2/Al pellets under irradiation for a variety of target encapsulations and potential conditions.« less

Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Timothy W.; Slone, Daniel H.; Swain, Eric D.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Lohmann, Melinda; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.

2010-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Science (PES) initiative to provide the ecological science required during Everglades restoration, we have integrated current regional hydrologic models with American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) research and monitoring data to create a model that assesses the potential impact of Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) efforts on the American crocodile. A list of indicators was created by the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) component of CERP to help determine the success of interim restoration goals. The American crocodile was established as an indicator of the ecological condition of mangrove estuaries due to its reliance upon estuarine environments characterized by low salinity and adequate freshwater inflow. To gain a better understanding of the potential impact of CERP restoration efforts on the American crocodile, a spatially explicit crocodile population model has been created that has the ability to simulate the response of crocodiles to various management strategies for the South Florida ecosystem. The crocodile model uses output from the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) model, an application of the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. TIME has the capability to link to the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), which is the primary regional tool used to assess CERP restoration scenarios. A crocodile habitat suitability index and spatial parameter maps that reflect salinity, water depth, habitat, and nesting locations are used as driving functions to construct crocodile finite rate of increase maps under different management scenarios. Local stage-structured models are integrated with a spatial landscape grid to display crocodile movement behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Restoration efforts are expected to affect salinity levels throughout the habitat of the American crocodile. This modeling effort examines how CERP restoration alternatives will affect growth and survival rates of hatchling and juvenile crocodiles, hatchling dispersal to suitable nursery habitat, and relative abundance and distribution in response to changing salinity and water depth for all stage classes of crocodiles. The response of the American crocodile to restoration efforts will provide a quantifiable measure of restoration success. By applying the crocodile model to proposed restoration alternatives and predicting population responses, we can choose alternatives that approximate historical conditions, enhance habitat for multiple species, and identify future research needs.

The future of dentistry: new challenges, new directions.

PubMed Central

Sinkford, J. C.

1990-01-01

The challenge to our profession today is to improve the quality of oral health while overcoming both extrinsic and intrinsic factors which may adversely affect our progress toward this goal. The combined efforts of dental education, dental research, and dental practice will be needed to enable us to maintain the quality of our present system and to meet the myriad changes that will chart our new directions in the future. Our unified efforts can make a difference and, thereby, ensure a meaningful and productive future for dentistry in our country and throughout the world. Let us show the world that the future of dentistry matters to us and that we look to the future with great anticipation and optimism. PMID:2352286

Blast Load Simulator Experiments for Computational Model Validation: Report 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

involving the inclusion of non-responding box-type structures in a BLS simulated blast environment. The BLS is a highly tunable com- pressed-gas-driven...Blast Load Simulator (BLS) to evaluate its suitability for a future effort involving the inclusion of non-responding box-type structures located in...Recommendations Preliminary testing indicated that inclusion of the grill and diaphragm striker resulted in a decrease in peak pressure of about 12

Grand Junction Projects Office Remedial Action Project Building 2 public dose evaluation. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, R.

1996-05-01

Building 2 on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grand Junction Projects Office (GJPO) site, which is operated by Rust Geotech, is part of the GJPO Remedial Action Program. This report describes measurements and modeling efforts to evaluate the radiation dose to members of the public who might someday occupy or tear down Building 2. The assessment of future doses to those occupying or demolishing Building 2 is based on assumptions about future uses of the building, measured data when available, and predictive modeling when necessary. Future use of the building is likely to be as an office facility. Themore » DOE sponsored program, RESRAD-BUILD, Version. 1.5 was chosen for the modeling tool. Releasing the building for unrestricted use instead of demolishing it now could save a substantial amount of money compared with the baseline cost estimate because the site telecommunications system, housed in Building 2, would not be disabled and replaced. The information developed in this analysis may be used as part of an as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) cost/benefit determination regarding disposition of Building 2.« less

Laboratory and theoretical models of planetary-scale instabilities and waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart, John E.; Toomre, Juri

1990-01-01

Meteorologists and planetary astronomers interested in large-scale planetary and solar circulations recognize the importance of rotation and stratification in determining the character of these flows. In the past it has been impossible to accurately model the effects of sphericity on these motions in the laboratory because of the invariant relationship between the uni-directional terrestrial gravity and the rotation axis of an experiment. Researchers studied motions of rotating convecting liquids in spherical shells using electrohydrodynamic polarization forces to generate radial gravity, and hence centrally directed buoyancy forces, in the laboratory. The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) experiments performed on Spacelab 3 in 1985 were analyzed. Recent efforts at interpretation led to numerical models of rotating convection with an aim to understand the possible generation of zonal banding on Jupiter and the fate of banana cells in rapidly rotating convection as the heating is made strongly supercritical. In addition, efforts to pose baroclinic wave experiments for future space missions using a modified version of the 1985 instrument led to theoretical and numerical models of baroclinic instability. Rather surprising properties were discovered, which may be useful in generating rational (rather than artificially truncated) models for nonlinear baroclinic instability and baroclinic chaos.

From psychiatric disorders to animal models: a bidirectional and dimensional approach

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Zoe. R.; Hen, René

2014-01-01

Psychiatric genetics research is bidirectional in nature, with human and animal studies becoming more closely integrated as techniques for genetic manipulations allow for more subtle exploration of disease phenotypes. This synergy, however, highlights the importance of considering the way in which we approach the genotype-phenotype relationship. In particular, the nosological divide of psychiatric illness, while clinically relevant, is not directly translatable in animal models. For instance, mice will never fully re-capitulate the broad criteria for many psychiatric disorders; nor will they have guilty ruminations, suicidal thoughts, or rapid speech. Instead, animal models have been and continue to provide a means to explore dimensions of psychiatric disorders in order to identify neural circuits and mechanisms underlying disease-relevant phenotypes. Thus, the genetic investigation of psychiatric illness will yield the greatest insights if efforts continue to identify and utilize biologically valid phenotypes across species. In this review we discuss the progress to date and the future efforts that will enhance translation between human and animal studies, including the identification of intermediate phenotypes that can be studied across species, as well as the importance of refined modeling of human disease-associated genetic variation in mice and other animal models. PMID:24650688

Validating Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) predictive capability using perturbed capsules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Mark; Magelssen, Glenn; Tregillis, Ian; Hsu, Scott; Bradley, Paul; Dodd, Evan; Cobble, James; Flippo, Kirk; Offerman, Dustin; Obrey, Kimberly; Wang, Yi-Ming; Watt, Robert; Wilke, Mark; Wysocki, Frederick; Batha, Steven

2009-11-01

Achieving ignition on NIF is a monumental step on the path toward utilizing fusion as a controlled energy source. Obtaining robust ignition requires accurate ICF models to predict the degradation of ignition caused by heterogeneities in capsule construction and irradiation. LANL has embarked on a project to induce controlled defects in capsules to validate our ability to predict their effects on fusion burn. These efforts include the validation of feature-driven hydrodynamics and mix in a convergent geometry. This capability is needed to determine the performance of capsules imploded under less-than-optimum conditions on future IFE facilities. LANL's recently initiated Defect Implosion Experiments (DIME) conducted at Rochester's Omega facility are providing input for these efforts. Recent simulation and experimental results will be shown.

Wyoming greater sage-grouse habitat prioritization: A collection of multi-scale seasonal models and geographic information systems land management tools

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Michael S.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

We deliver all products described herein as online geographic information system data for visualization and downloading. We outline the data properties for each model and their data inputs, describe the process of selecting appropriate data products for multifarious applications, describe all data products and software, provide newly derived model composites, and discuss how land managers may use the models to inform future sage-grouse studies and potentially refine conservation efforts. The models, software tools, and associated opportunities for novel applications of these products should provide a suite of additional, but not exclusive, tools for assessing Wyoming Greater Sage-grouse habitats, which land managers, conservationists, and scientists can apply to myriad applications.

Wind Shear/Turbulence Inputs to Flight Simulation and Systems Certification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, Roland L. (Editor); Frost, Walter (Editor)

1987-01-01

The purpose of the workshop was to provide a forum for industry, universities, and government to assess current status and likely future requirements for application of flight simulators to aviation safety concerns and system certification issues associated with wind shear and atmospheric turbulence. Research findings presented included characterization of wind shear and turbulence hazards based on modeling efforts and quantitative results obtained from field measurement programs. Future research thrusts needed to maximally exploit flight simulators for aviation safety application involving wind shear and turbulence were identified. The conference contained sessions on: Existing wind shear data and simulator implementation initiatives; Invited papers regarding wind shear and turbulence simulation requirements; and Committee working session reports.

Future Assets, Student Talent (FAST)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

Future Assets, Student Talent (FAST) motivates and prepares talented students with disabilities to further their education and achieve High Tech and professional employment. The FAST program is managed by local professionals, business, and industry leaders; it is modeled after High School High Tech project TAKE CHARGE started in Los Angeles in 1983. Through cooperative efforts of Alabama Department of Education, Vocational Rehabilitation, Adult and Children Services, and the President's Committee on Employment of People with Disabilities, north central Alabama was chosen as the second site for a High School High Tech project. In 1986 local business, industry, education, government agencies, and rehabilitation representatives started FAST. The program objectives and goals, results and accomplishments, and survey results are included.

Future challenges in communication for promoting ORT--an overview.

PubMed

Dobe, M

2003-06-01

Oral rehydration therapy (ORT) is a cheap and simple intervention aimed to prevent mortality and morbidity associated with dehydration due to diarrhoea. ORT promotion strategies through programme communication, social mobilisation and social marketing, and advocacy efforts have yielded substantial improvement in the scenario. However, it has also taught us lessons and suggested changes in communication strategies to make the promotion efforts more effective in future.

Understanding pathways for scaling up health services through the lens of complex adaptive systems.

PubMed

Paina, Ligia; Peters, David H

2012-08-01

Despite increased prominence and funding of global health initiatives, efforts to scale up health services in developing countries are falling short of the expectations of the Millennium Development Goals. Arguing that the dominant assumptions for scaling up are inadequate, we propose that interpreting change in health systems through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) provides better models of pathways for scaling up. Based on an understanding of CAS behaviours, we describe how phenomena such as path dependence, feedback loops, scale-free networks, emergent behaviour and phase transitions can uncover relevant lessons for the design and implementation of health policy and programmes in the context of scaling up health services. The implications include paying more attention to local context, incentives and institutions, as well as anticipating certain types of unintended consequences that can undermine scaling up efforts, and developing and implementing programmes that engage key actors through transparent use of data for ongoing problem-solving and adaptation. We propose that future efforts to scale up should adapt and apply the models and methodologies which have been used in other fields that study CAS, yet are underused in public health. This can help policy makers, planners, implementers and researchers to explore different and innovative approaches for reaching populations in need with effective, equitable and efficient health services. The old assumptions have led to disappointed expectations about how to scale up health services, and offer little insight on how to scale up effective interventions in the future. The alternative perspectives offered by CAS may better reflect the complex and changing nature of health systems, and create new opportunities for understanding and scaling up health services.

Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Biodiversity conservation in Swedish forests: ways forward for a 30-year-old multi-scaled approach.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Lena; Perhans, Karin

2010-12-01

A multi-scaled model for biodiversity conservation in forests was introduced in Sweden 30 years ago, which makes it a pioneer example of an integrated ecosystem approach. Trees are set aside for biodiversity purposes at multiple scale levels varying from individual trees to areas of thousands of hectares, with landowner responsibility at the lowest level and with increasing state involvement at higher levels. Ecological theory supports the multi-scaled approach, and retention efforts at every harvest occasion stimulate landowners' interest in conservation. We argue that the model has large advantages but that in a future with intensified forestry and global warming, development based on more progressive thinking is necessary to maintain and increase biodiversity. Suggestions for the future include joint planning for several forest owners, consideration of cost-effectiveness, accepting opportunistic work models, adjusting retention levels to stand and landscape composition, introduction of temporary reserves, creation of "receiver habitats" for species escaping climate change, and protection of young forests.

Thermal Model Development for an X-Ray Mirror Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonafede, Joseph A.

2015-01-01

Space-based x-ray optics require stringent thermal environmental control to achieve the desired image quality. Future x-ray telescopes will employ hundreds of nearly cylindrical, thin mirror shells to maximize effective area, with each shell built from small azimuthal segment pairs for manufacturability. Thermal issues with these thin optics are inevitable because the mirrors must have a near unobstructed view of space while maintaining near uniform 20 C temperature to avoid thermal deformations. NASA Goddard has been investigating the thermal characteristics of a future x-ray telescope with an image requirement of 5 arc-seconds and only 1 arc-second focusing error allocated for thermal distortion. The telescope employs 135 effective mirror shells formed from 7320 individual mirror segments mounted in three rings of 18, 30, and 36 modules each. Thermal requirements demand a complex thermal control system and detailed thermal modeling to verify performance. This presentation introduces innovative modeling efforts used for the conceptual design of the mirror assembly and presents results demonstrating potential feasibility of the thermal requirements.

Understanding GPU Power. A Survey of Profiling, Modeling, and Simulation Methods

DOE PAGES

Bridges, Robert A.; Imam, Neena; Mintz, Tiffany M.

2016-09-01

Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) have complex architectures that admit exceptional performance and energy efficiency for high throughput applications.Though GPUs consume large amounts of power, their use for high throughput applications facilitate state-of-the-art energy efficiency and performance. Consequently, continued development relies on understanding their power consumption. Our work is a survey of GPU power modeling and profiling methods with increased detail on noteworthy efforts. Moreover, as direct measurement of GPU power is necessary for model evaluation and parameter initiation, internal and external power sensors are discussed. Hardware counters, which are low-level tallies of hardware events, share strong correlation to powermore » use and performance. Statistical correlation between power and performance counters has yielded worthwhile GPU power models, yet the complexity inherent to GPU architectures presents new hurdles for power modeling. Developments and challenges of counter-based GPU power modeling is discussed. Often building on the counter-based models, research efforts for GPU power simulation, which make power predictions from input code and hardware knowledge, provide opportunities for optimization in programming or architectural design. Noteworthy strides in power simulations for GPUs are included along with their performance or functional simulator counterparts when appropriate. Lastly, possible directions for future research are discussed.« less

On the use of Empirical Data to Downscale Non-scientific Scepticism About Results From Complex Physical Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germer, S.; Bens, O.; Hüttl, R. F.

2008-12-01

The scepticism of non-scientific local stakeholders about results from complex physical based models is a major problem concerning the development and implementation of local climate change adaptation measures. This scepticism originates from the high complexity of such models. Local stakeholders perceive complex models as black-box models, as it is impossible to gasp all underlying assumptions and mathematically formulated processes at a glance. The use of physical based models is, however, indispensible to study complex underlying processes and to predict future environmental changes. The increase of climate change adaptation efforts following the release of the latest IPCC report indicates that the communication of facts about what has already changed is an appropriate tool to trigger climate change adaptation. Therefore we suggest increasing the practice of empirical data analysis in addition to modelling efforts. The analysis of time series can generate results that are easier to comprehend for non-scientific stakeholders. Temporal trends and seasonal patterns of selected hydrological parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels and river discharge) can be identified and the dependence of trends and seasonal patters to land use, topography and soil type can be highlighted. A discussion about lag times between the hydrological parameters can increase the awareness of local stakeholders for delayed environment responses.

The Impact of the Patient-Centered Medical Home on Health Care Disparities: Exploring Stakeholder Perspectives on Current Standards and Future Directions.

PubMed

De Marchis, Emilia H; Doekhie, Kirti; Willard-Grace, Rachel; Olayiwola, J Nwando

2018-06-19

Over the past decade, the Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) has become a preeminent model for primary care delivery. Simultaneously, health care disparities have gained increasing attention. There has been limited research on whether and how the PCMH can or should affect health care disparities. The authors conducted qualitative interviews with key stakeholders and experts on the PCMH model and health care disparities, including grant and policy makers, accreditors, researchers, patient advocates, primary care practices, practice transformation organizations, and payers, to assess perspectives on the role of the PCMH in addressing health care disparities. The application of grounded theory and thematic analysis elucidated best practice recommendations for the PCMH model's role in addressing health care disparities. Although the majority of stakeholders support greater integration of efforts to reduce health care disparities into the PCMH model, most stakeholders view the current PCMH model as having minimal or indirect influence on health care disparities. The majority supported greater integration of efforts to reduce health care disparities into the PCMH model. As the PCMH model continues to be refined, and as the health care system strives toward improving population health, there must be reflection on the policies and delivery systems that impact health care disparities.

An eco-hydrologic model of malaria outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montosi, E.; Manzoni, S.; Porporato, A.; Montanari, A.

2012-03-01

Malaria is a geographically widespread infectious disease that is well known to be affected by climate variability at both seasonal and interannual timescales. In an effort to identify climatic factors that impact malaria dynamics, there has been considerable research focused on the development of appropriate disease models for malaria transmission and their consideration alongside climatic datasets. These analyses have focused largely on variation in temperature and rainfall as direct climatic drivers of malaria dynamics. Here, we further these efforts by considering additionally the role that soil water content may play in driving malaria incidence. Specifically, we hypothesize that hydro-climatic variability should be an important factor in controlling the availability of mosquito habitats, thereby governing mosquito growth rates. To test this hypothesis, we reduce a nonlinear eco-hydrologic model to a simple linear model through a series of consecutive assumptions and apply this model to malaria incidence data from three South African provinces. Despite the assumptions made in the reduction of the model, we show that soil water content can account for a significant portion of malaria's case variability beyond its seasonal patterns, whereas neither temperature nor rainfall alone can do so. Future work should therefore consider soil water content as a simple and computable variable for incorporation into climate-driven disease models of malaria and other vector-borne infectious diseases.

An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montosi, E.; Manzoni, S.; Porporato, A.; Montanari, A.

2012-08-01

Malaria is a geographically widespread infectious disease that is well known to be affected by climate variability at both seasonal and interannual timescales. In an effort to identify climatic factors that impact malaria dynamics, there has been considerable research focused on the development of appropriate disease models for malaria transmission driven by climatic time series. These analyses have focused largely on variation in temperature and rainfall as direct climatic drivers of malaria dynamics. Here, we further these efforts by considering additionally the role that soil water content may play in driving malaria incidence. Specifically, we hypothesize that hydro-climatic variability should be an important factor in controlling the availability of mosquito habitats, thereby governing mosquito growth rates. To test this hypothesis, we reduce a nonlinear ecohydrological model to a simple linear model through a series of consecutive assumptions and apply this model to malaria incidence data from three South African provinces. Despite the assumptions made in the reduction of the model, we show that soil water content can account for a significant portion of malaria's case variability beyond its seasonal patterns, whereas neither temperature nor rainfall alone can do so. Future work should therefore consider soil water content as a simple and computable variable for incorporation into climate-driven disease models of malaria and other vector-borne infectious diseases.

Understanding GPU Power. A Survey of Profiling, Modeling, and Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bridges, Robert A.; Imam, Neena; Mintz, Tiffany M.

Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) have complex architectures that admit exceptional performance and energy efficiency for high throughput applications.Though GPUs consume large amounts of power, their use for high throughput applications facilitate state-of-the-art energy efficiency and performance. Consequently, continued development relies on understanding their power consumption. Our work is a survey of GPU power modeling and profiling methods with increased detail on noteworthy efforts. Moreover, as direct measurement of GPU power is necessary for model evaluation and parameter initiation, internal and external power sensors are discussed. Hardware counters, which are low-level tallies of hardware events, share strong correlation to powermore » use and performance. Statistical correlation between power and performance counters has yielded worthwhile GPU power models, yet the complexity inherent to GPU architectures presents new hurdles for power modeling. Developments and challenges of counter-based GPU power modeling is discussed. Often building on the counter-based models, research efforts for GPU power simulation, which make power predictions from input code and hardware knowledge, provide opportunities for optimization in programming or architectural design. Noteworthy strides in power simulations for GPUs are included along with their performance or functional simulator counterparts when appropriate. Lastly, possible directions for future research are discussed.« less

Multifidelity, Multidisciplinary Design Under Uncertainty with Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Gumbert, Clyde

2017-01-01

The primary objective of this work is to develop an approach for multifidelity uncertainty quantification and to lay the framework for future design under uncertainty efforts. In this study, multifidelity is used to describe both the fidelity of the modeling of the physical systems, as well as the difference in the uncertainty in each of the models. For computational efficiency, a multifidelity surrogate modeling approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos using the point-collocation technique is developed for the treatment of both multifidelity modeling and multifidelity uncertainty modeling. Two stochastic model problems are used to demonstrate the developed methodologies: a transonic airfoil model and multidisciplinary aircraft analysis model. The results of both showed the multifidelity modeling approach was able to predict the output uncertainty predicted by the high-fidelity model as a significant reduction in computational cost.

Towards Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleckler, P. J.

2014-12-01

The process by which climate models are evaluated has evolved substantially over the past decade, with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) serving as a centralizing activity for coordinating model experimentation and enabling research. Scientists with a broad spectrum of expertise have contributed to the CMIP model evaluation process, resulting in many hundreds of publications that have served as a key resource for the IPCC process. For several reasons, efforts are now underway to further systematize some aspects of the model evaluation process. First, some model evaluation can now be considered routine and should not require "re-inventing the wheel" or a journal publication simply to update results with newer models. Second, the benefit of CMIP research to model development has not been optimal because the publication of results generally takes several years and is usually not reproducible for benchmarking newer model versions. And third, there are now hundreds of model versions and many thousands of simulations, but there is no community-based mechanism for routinely monitoring model performance changes. An important change in the design of CMIP6 can help address these limitations. CMIP6 will include a small set standardized experiments as an ongoing exercise (CMIP "DECK": ongoing Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima), so that modeling groups can submit them at any time and not be overly constrained by deadlines. In this presentation, efforts to establish routine benchmarking of existing and future CMIP simulations will be described. To date, some benchmarking tools have been made available to all CMIP modeling groups to enable them to readily compare with CMIP5 simulations during the model development process. A natural extension of this effort is to make results from all CMIP simulations widely available, including the results from newer models as soon as the simulations become available for research. Making the results from routine performance tests readily accessible will help advance a more transparent model evaluation process.

100 years of Drosophila research and its impact on vertebrate neuroscience: a history lesson for the future.

PubMed

Bellen, Hugo J; Tong, Chao; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2010-07-01

Discoveries in fruit flies have greatly contributed to our understanding of neuroscience. The use of an unparalleled wealth of tools, many of which originated between 1910–1960, has enabled milestone discoveries in nervous system development and function. Such findings have triggered and guided many research efforts in vertebrate neuroscience. After 100 years, fruit flies continue to be the choice model system for many neuroscientists. The combinational use of powerful research tools will ensure that this model organism will continue to lead to key discoveries that will impact vertebrate neuroscience.

Manpower Substitution and Productivity in Medical Practice

PubMed Central

Reinhardt, Uwe E.

1973-01-01

Probably in response to the often alleged physician shortage in this country, concerted research efforts are under way to identify technically feasible opportunities for manpower substitution in the production of ambulatory health care. The approaches range from descriptive studies of the effect of task delegation on output of medical services to rigorous mathematical modeling of health care production by means of linear or continuous production functions. In this article the distinct methodological approaches underlying mathematical models are presented in synopsis, and their inherent strengths and weaknesses are contrasted. The discussion includes suggestions for future research directions. Images Fig. 2 PMID:4586735

100 years of Drosophila research and its impact on vertebrate neuroscience: a history lesson for the future

PubMed Central

Bellen, Hugo J; Tong, Chao; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2014-01-01

Discoveries in fruit flies have greatly contributed to our understanding of neuroscience. The use of an unparalleled wealth of tools, many of which originated between 1910–1960, has enabled milestone discoveries in nervous system development and function. Such findings have triggered and guided many research efforts in vertebrate neuroscience. After 100 years, fruit flies continue to be the choice model system for many neuroscientists. The combinational use of powerful research tools will ensure that this model organism will continue to lead to key discoveries that will impact vertebrate neuroscience. PMID:20383202

Partner approval and intention to use contraception among Zanzibari women presenting for post-abortion care.

PubMed

Esber, Allahna; Foraker, Randi E; Hemed, Maryam; Norris, Alison

2014-07-01

We examined the effect of partner approval of contraception on intention to use contraception among women obtaining post-abortion care in Zanzibar. Our data source was a 2010 survey of 193 women obtaining post-abortion care at a large public hospital in Zanzibar. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess associations between partner approval and intention to use contraception. Overall, 23% of participants had used a contraceptive method in the past, and 66% reported intending to use contraception in the future. We found that partner approval of contraception and ever having used contraception in the past were each associated with intending to use contraception in the future. In the multivariable model, adjusting for past contraception use, partner approval of contraception was associated with 20 times the odds of intending to use contraception (odds ratio, 20.25; 95% confidence interval, 8.45-48.56). We found a strong association between partner approval and intention to use contraception. Efforts to support contraceptive use must include both male and female partners. Public health and educational efforts to increase contraceptive use must include men and be targeted to both male and female partners. Given that male partners are often not present when women obtain health care, creative efforts will be required to meet men in community settings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Fast Debris Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Hugh G.; Swinerd, Graham; Newland, Rebecca; Saunders, Arrun

The ‘Particles-in-a-box' (PIB) model introduced by Talent (1992) removed the need for computerintensive Monte Carlo simulation to predict the gross characteristics of an evolving debris environment. The PIB model was described using a differential equation that allows the stability of the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment to be tested by a straightforward analysis of the equation's coefficients. As part of an ongoing research effort to investigate more efficient approaches to evolutionary modelling and to develop a suite of educational tools, a new PIB model has been developed. The model, entitled Fast Debris Evolution (FaDE), employs a first-order differential equation to describe the rate at which new objects (˜ 10 cm) are added and removed from the environment. Whilst Talent (1992) based the collision theory for the PIB approach on collisions between gas particles and adopted specific values for the parameters of the model from a number of references, the form and coefficients of the FaDE model equations can be inferred from the outputs of future projections produced by high-fidelity models, such as the DAMAGE model. The FaDE model has been implemented as a client-side, web-based service using Javascript embedded within a HTML document. Due to the simple nature of the algorithm, FaDE can deliver the results of future projections immediately in a graphical format, with complete user-control over key simulation parameters. Historical and future projections for the ˜ 10 cm low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment under a variety of different scenarios are possible, including business as usual, no future launches, post-mission disposal and remediation. A selection of results is presented with comparisons with predictions made using the DAMAGE environment model. The results demonstrate that the FaDE model is able to capture comparable time-series of collisions and number of objects as predicted by DAMAGE in several scenarios. Further, and perhaps more importantly, its speed and flexibility allows the user to explore and understand the evolution of the space debris environment.

Platte River Forum for the Future: workshop model documentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

1983-01-01

The Platte River Forum for the Future (PRFF) is an effort by the Nebraska Natural Resources Commission (NNRC) to bring together representatives of interests and agencies concerned with management of the Platte River and, assisted by various computer technologies, to reach some degree of agreement on the “best uses” of the remaining waters of the Platte. Simulation modeling is being used in this effort as a focal point for developing a common understanding of the behavior of the Platte River system, synthesizing existing information, identifying additional needed information, and analyzing the potential consequences of various management alternatives. The NNRC initiated the project in August 1982 by convening a workshop for interested parties in Grand Island, Nebraska. This workshop was devoted to construction of a preliminary simulation model describing the Platte River system. A group of facilitators/modelers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) assisted participants in translating their understanding of the Platte River into the framework of the model. In October 1982, FWS personnel began a process of training several people from Nebraska in the use of the model. At that time, minor revisions and corrections were made in the model and various development scenarios were prepared for discussion with participants at a second workshop, which was held in early November 1982. The purpose of this report is to document the status of the PRFF simulation model as of the end of the November 1982 meeting. We emphasize that the intent is not to describe a final product. Except for minor revisions and correction of obvious errors, the model described herein is that which existed at the end of the August workshop. The model contains the foundation for a comprehensive aid to decisionmakers, but at this time it is preliminary in nature, needing refinement and verification before it can be truly useful in analyzing management alternatives. The purpose of this report is to provide a solid foundation for that important future work. The report is divided into three basic parts. The first is a brief overview of the various components of the model and how they fit together. It is intended for those who are not particularly interested in the details of model formulation. The second is a detailed discussion of the logic, assumptions, equations, and data used in constructing the model. This detailed description is also referenced to specific sections of the third part, which is a set of appendices containing listings of the computer code as it presently exists.

Forecasting the effects of land-use and climate change on wildlife communities and habitats in the lower Mississippi Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faulkner, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

Landscape patterns and processes reflect both natural ecosystem attributes and the policy and management decisions of individual Federal, State, county, and private organizations. Land-use regulation, water management, and habitat conservation and restoration efforts increasingly rely on landscape-level approaches that incorporate scientific information into the decision-making process. Since management actions are implemented to affect future conditions, decision-support models are necessary to forecast potential future conditions resulting from these decisions. Spatially explicit modeling approaches enable testing of different scenarios and help evaluate potential outcomes of management actions in conjunction with natural processes such as climate change. The ability to forecast the effects of changing land use and climate is critically important to land and resource managers since their work is inherently site specific, yet conservation strategies and practices are expressed at higher spatial and temporal scales that must be considered in the decisionmaking process.

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Predicting hospital visits from geo-tagged Internet search logs.

PubMed

Agarwal, Vibhu; Han, Lichy; Madan, Isaac; Saluja, Shaurya; Shidham, Aaditya; Shah, Nigam H

2016-01-01

The steady rise in healthcare costs has deprived over 45 million Americans of healthcare services (1, 2) and has encouraged healthcare providers to look for opportunities to improve their operational efficiency. Prior studies have shown that evidence of healthcare seeking intent in Internet searches correlates well with healthcare resource utilization. Given the ubiquitous nature of mobile Internet search, we hypothesized that analyzing geo-tagged mobile search logs could enable us to machine-learn predictors of future patient visits. Using a de-identified dataset of geo-tagged mobile Internet search logs, we mined text and location patterns that are predictors of healthcare resource utilization and built statistical models that predict the probability of a user's future visit to a medical facility. Our efforts will enable the development of innovative methods for modeling and optimizing the use of healthcare resources-a crucial prerequisite for securing healthcare access for everyone in the days to come.

The NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT): NASA's Next Step for U.S. Deep Space Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, George R.; Patterson, Michael J.; Benson, Scott W.

2008-01-01

NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) project is developing next generation ion propulsion technologies to enhance the performance and lower the costs of future NASA space science missions. This is being accomplished by producing Engineering Model (EM) and Prototype Model (PM) components, validating these via qualification-level and integrated system testing, and preparing the transition of NEXT technologies to flight system development. The project is currently completing one of the final milestones of the effort, that is operation of an integrated NEXT Ion Propulsion System (IPS) in a simulated space environment. This test will advance the NEXT system to a NASA Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 6 (i.e., operation of a prototypical system in a representative environment), and will confirm its readiness for flight. Besides its promise for upcoming NASA science missions, NEXT may have excellent potential for future commercial and international spacecraft applications.

The History, Status, Gaps, and Future Directions of Neurotoxicology in China.

PubMed

Cai, Tongjian; Luo, Wenjing; Ruan, Diyun; Wu, Yi-Jun; Fox, Donald A; Chen, Jingyuan

2016-06-01

Rapid economic development in China has produced serious ecological, environmental, and health problems. Neurotoxicity has been recognized as a major public health problem. The Chinese government, research institutes, and scientists conducted extensive studies concerning the source, characteristics, and mechanisms of neurotoxicants. This paper presents, for the first time, a comprehensive history and review of major sources of neurotoxicants, national bodies/legislation engaged, and major neurotoxicology research in China. Peer-reviewed research and pollution studies by Chinese scientists from 1991 to 2015 were examined. PubMed, Web of Science and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were the major search tools. The central problem is an increased exposure to neurotoxicants from air and water, food contamination, e-waste recycling, and manufacturing of household products. China formulated an institutional framework and standards system for management of major neurotoxicants. Basic and applied research was initiated, and international cooperation was achieved. The annual number of peer-reviewed neurotoxicology papers from Chinese authors increased almost 30-fold since 2001. Despite extensive efforts, neurotoxicity remains a significant public health problem. This provides great challenges and opportunities. We identified 10 significant areas that require major educational, environmental, governmental, and research efforts, as well as attention to public awareness. For example, there is a need to increase efforts to utilize new in vivo and in vitro models, determine the potential neurotoxicity and mechanisms involved in newly emerging pollutants, and examine the effects and mechanisms of mixtures. In the future, we anticipate working with scientists worldwide to accomplish these goals and eliminate, prevent and treat neurotoxicity. Cai T, Luo W, Ruan D, Wu YJ, Fox DA, Chen J. 2016. The history, status, gaps, and future directions of neurotoxicology in China. Environ Health Perspect 124:722-732; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409566.

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

2017-12-01

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

2013-12-01

Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Overview of past, ongoing and future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John

2016-04-01

Northern Eurasia is both a major player in the global carbon budget (it includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost) and a region that has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts) over the past century. Northern Eurasia has also undergone significant land-use change, both driven by human activity (including deforestation, expansion of agricultural lands and urbanization) and natural disturbances (such as wildfires and insect outbreaks). These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from tundra to forests, with significant areas of croplands and pastures as well as deserts, with major urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. In this presentation, we provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. We review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system (through scale, teleconnections or processes), we point out that there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks within the Earth system (between components, regions or scale). As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how policy relevant current studies are that fail to account for these feedbacks. We review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce the human activity system (global trade, economic models, demographic model and so on), the need for coupled human/earth system models and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth System Models. Finally, we conclude the presentation with examples of emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human/earth system models.

Continued Development and Validation of Methods for Spheromak Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedett, Thomas

2015-11-01

The HIT-SI experiment has demonstrated stable sustainment of spheromaks; determining how the underlying physics extrapolate to larger, higher-temperature regimes is of prime importance in determining the viability of the inductively-driven spheromak. It is thus prudent to develop and validate a computational model that can be used to study current results and provide an intermediate step between theory and future experiments. A zero-beta Hall-MHD model has shown good agreement with experimental data at 14.5 kHz injector operation. Experimental observations at higher frequency, where the best performance is achieved, indicate pressure effects are important and likely required to attain quantitative agreement with simulations. Efforts to extend the existing validation to high frequency (~ 36-68 kHz) using an extended MHD model implemented in the PSI-TET arbitrary-geometry 3D MHD code will be presented. Results from verification of the PSI-TET extended MHD model using the GEM magnetic reconnection challenge will also be presented along with investigation of injector configurations for future SIHI experiments using Taylor state equilibrium calculations. Work supported by DoE.

Operational evaluation of high-throughput community-based mass prophylaxis using Just-in-time training.

PubMed

Spitzer, James D; Hupert, Nathaniel; Duckart, Jonathan; Xiong, Wei

2007-01-01

Community-based mass prophylaxis is a core public health operational competency, but staffing needs may overwhelm the local trained health workforce. Just-in-time (JIT) training of emergency staff and computer modeling of workforce requirements represent two complementary approaches to address this logistical problem. Multnomah County, Oregon, conducted a high-throughput point of dispensing (POD) exercise to test JIT training and computer modeling to validate POD staffing estimates. The POD had 84% non-health-care worker staff and processed 500 patients per hour. Post-exercise modeling replicated observed staff utilization levels and queue formation, including development and amelioration of a large medical evaluation queue caused by lengthy processing times and understaffing in the first half-hour of the exercise. The exercise confirmed the feasibility of using JIT training for high-throughput antibiotic dispensing clinics staffed largely by nonmedical professionals. Patient processing times varied over the course of the exercise, with important implications for both staff reallocation and future POD modeling efforts. Overall underutilization of staff revealed the opportunity for greater efficiencies and even higher future throughputs.

The role of simulation in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Rehder, Roberta; Abd-El-Barr, Muhammad; Hooten, Kristopher; Weinstock, Peter; Madsen, Joseph R; Cohen, Alan R

2016-01-01

In an era of residency duty-hour restrictions, there has been a recent effort to implement simulation-based training methods in neurosurgery teaching institutions. Several surgical simulators have been developed, ranging from physical models to sophisticated virtual reality systems. To date, there is a paucity of information describing the clinical benefits of existing simulators and the assessment strategies to help implement them into neurosurgical curricula. Here, we present a systematic review of the current models of simulation and discuss the state-of-the-art and future directions for simulation in neurosurgery. Retrospective literature review. Multiple simulators have been developed for neurosurgical training, including those for minimally invasive procedures, vascular, skull base, pediatric, tumor resection, functional neurosurgery, and spine surgery. The pros and cons of existing systems are reviewed. Advances in imaging and computer technology have led to the development of different simulation models to complement traditional surgical training. Sophisticated virtual reality (VR) simulators with haptic feedback and impressive imaging technology have provided novel options for training in neurosurgery. Breakthrough training simulation using 3D printing technology holds promise for future simulation practice, proving high-fidelity patient-specific models to complement residency surgical learning.

A Cognitive Ecological Model of Women’s Response to Male Sexual Coercion in Dating

PubMed Central

Nurius, Paula S.; Norris, Jeanette

2015-01-01

SUMMARY We offer a theoretical model that consolidates background, environmental, and intrapersonal variables related to women’s experience of sexual coercion in dating into a coherent ecological framework and present for the first time a cognitive analysis of the processes women use to formulate responses to sexual coercion. An underlying premise for this model is that a woman’s coping response to sexual coercion by an acquaintance is mediated through cognitive processing of background and situational influences. Because women encounter this form of sexual coercion in the context of relationships and situations that they presume will follow normative expectations (e.g., about making friends, socializing and dating), it is essential to consider normative processes of learning, cognitive mediation, and coping guiding their efforts to interpret and respond to this form of personal threat. Although acts of coercion unquestionably remain the responsibility of the perpetrator, a more complete understanding of the multilevel factors shaping women’s perception of and response to threats can strengthen future inquiry and prevention efforts. PMID:25729157

Basic Modeling of the Solar Atmosphere and Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avrett, Eugene; Wagner, William J. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

This grant supported the research and publication of a major 26-page paper in The Astrophysical Journal, by Fontenla, Avrett, & Loeser (2002): 'Energy Balance in the Solar Transition Region. IV. Hydrogen and Helium Mass Flows with Diffusion.' This paper extended our previous modeling of the chromosphere-corona transition region to include cases with particle and mass flows. Inflows and outflows were shown to produce striking changes in the profiles of hydrogen and helium lines. An important conclusion is that line shifts are much less significant than the changes in line intensity and central reversal due to the influence of flows on the excitation and ionization of atoms in the solar atmosphere. This modeling effort at SAO is the only current one being undertaken anywhere to simulate in detail the full range of non-LTE absorption, emission, and scattering processes in the solar atmosphere to account for the entire solar spectrum from radio waves to X-rays. This effort is being continued with internal SAO funding at a relatively slow pace. Further NASA support in the future would yield results of great value for the interpretation of solar observations from NASA spacecraft.

Organizing Chaos: Restructuring Counter-Piracy Forces Off the Coast of Somalia

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-04

the Maersk Alabama cargo ship. Prior to these attacks, most Americans were likely to associate a pirate with Hollywood’s mascara-wearing Johnny Depp...However, the approach to countering Somali pirates is disorganized. The international community attempts to achieve unity of effort by relying heavily...conducting counter-piracy as ―a good model not only for the Gulf of Aden and the Somali bases, but also for future such endeavors.‖ 12 Mr. Countryman

Very Large Graphs for Information Extraction (VLG) Detection and Inference in the Presence of Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-21

this framework, MIT LL carried out a one-year proof- of-concept study to determine the capabilities and challenges in the detection of anomalies in...extremely large graphs [5]. Under this effort, two real datasets were considered, and algorithms for data modeling and anomaly detection were developed...is required in a well-defined experimental framework for the detection of anomalies in very large graphs. This study is intended to inform future

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP): a national scale natural resources and conservation needs assessment and decision support tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, M.-V. V.; Norfleet, M. L.; Atwood, J. D.; Behrman, K. D.; Kiniry, J. R.; Arnold, J. G.; White, M. J.; Williams, J.

2015-07-01

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was initiated to quantify the impacts of agricultural conservation practices at the watershed, regional, and national scales across the United States. Representative cropland acres in all major U.S. watersheds were surveyed in 2003-2006 as part of the seminal CEAP Cropland National Assessment. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender(APEX) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were applied to the survey data to provide a quantitative assessment of current conservation practice impacts, establish a benchmark against which future conservation trends and efforts could be measured, and identify outstanding conservation concerns. The flexibility of these models and the unprecedented amount of data on current conservation practices across the country enabled Cropland CEAP to meet its Congressional mandate of quantifying the value of current conservation practices. It also enabled scientifically grounded exploration of a variety of conservation scenarios, empowering CEAP to not only inform on past successes and additional needs, but to also provide a decision support tool to help guide future policy development and conservation practice decision making. The CEAP effort will repeat the national survey in 2015-2016, enabling CEAP to provide analyses of emergent conservation trends, outstanding needs, and potential costs and benefits of pursuing various treatment scenarios for all agricultural watersheds across the United States.

Culture and cognition in health systems change.

PubMed

Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross; Berta, Whitney; Barnsley, Jan

2015-01-01

Large-scale change involves modifying not only the structures and functions of multiple organizations, but also the mindsets and behaviours of diverse stakeholders. This paper focuses on the latter: the informal, less visible, and often neglected psychological and social factors implicated in change efforts. The purpose of this paper is to differentiate between the concepts of organizational culture and mental models, to argue for the value of applying a shared mental models (SMM) framework to large-scale change, and to suggest directions for future research. The authors provide an overview of SMM theory and use it to explore the dynamic relationship between culture and cognition. The contributions and limitations of the theory to change efforts are also discussed. Culture and cognition are complementary perspectives, providing insight into two different levels of the change process. SMM theory draws attention to important questions that add value to existing perspectives on large-scale change. The authors outline these questions for future research and argue that research and practice in this domain may be best served by focusing less on the potentially narrow goal of "achieving consensus" and more on identifying, understanding, and managing cognitive convergences and divergences as part of broader research and change management programmes. Drawing from both cultural and cognitive paradigms can provide researchers with a more complete picture of the processes by which coordinated action are achieved in complex change initiatives in the healthcare domain.

Understanding ethnic/racial health disparities in youth and families in the US.

PubMed

Carlo, Gustavo; Crockett, Lisa J; Carranza, Miguel A; Martinez, Miriam M

2011-01-01

To summarize, ethnic and social class disparities are evident across a spectrum of markers of psychological, behavioral, and physical health. Furthermore, the pattern is often complex such that disparities are sometimes found within ethnic/racial groups as well as across those groups. Indeed, it is likely that the causes of health disparities may be different across specific subgroups. Moreover, theoretical models are needed that examine biological, contextual, and person-level variables (including culture-specific variables) to account for health disparities. The scholars in the present volume provide exemplary research that moves us towards more comprehensive and integrative models of health disparities. A brief glance at the work summarized by these scholars yields some common elements of focus for future researchers regarding risk (e.g., poverty, lack of contextual diversity) and protective (e.g., family support, cultural identity) factors yet they also identify aspects (e.g., genetic vulnerabilities) that may be unique to specific ethnic/racial groups. In addition to employing more integrative and culturally sensitive models of health disparities, future research studies could expand the scope of investigation to include transnational studies of health disparities and the processes contributing to them. They might also consider culture-specific health problems and syndromes such as "nervios" in Latino cultures. Within nations, further attention might be directed to the community contexts in which ethnic minority and low SES families reside, not only urban areas but the much less studied rural areas. Finally, efforts to assess health disparities and the factors contributing to them across cultural and ethnic groups need to attend closely to the issue of measurement equivalence in order to ensure valid cross-group comparisons. We would add that future research on health disparities will need to examine markers of positive health outcomes and well being (e.g., social competence) rather than focusing solely on risk and protective factors associated with health-related problems. We cannot assume that the relative absence of negative pathology and risk equals the presence of health and well being-thus research is needed that includes both positive and negative health outcomes. More attention to positive health indicators will further our understanding of normative, positive health outcomes and lead us away from traditional deficit and pathology-focused models of ethnic minorities. Finally, the scholars in this volume all present findings that have important implications for policy and intervention efforts-the lessons learned from their efforts should be heeded if we are to comprehensively and effectively address the existing health disparities in the US.

The place of space technology in economic development: Reflections on present and future aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebeau, A.; Reuter, K. E.

1980-01-01

The effects of the development of satellite applications on the orientation of the space effort were examined. The gap between available and exploited technology, the impact of the current economic climate and future trends are discussed. Europe's low level of public funding for its space effort, in comparison to other space powers, and the dangers of complacency regarding Europe's competitiveness in the space market are illustrated. A proposal for the general direction which Europe's future strategy must take if European independence in this field is to be preserved is presented.

Modeling of Local BEAM Structure for Evaluation of MMOD Impacts to Support Development of a Health Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Vassilakos, Gregory J.

2015-01-01

This report summarizes initial modeling of the local response of the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) to micrometeorite and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts using a structural, non-linear, transient dynamic finite element code. Complementary test results for a local BEAM structure are presented for both hammer and projectile impacts. Review of these data provided guidance for the transient dynamic model development. The local model is intended to support predictions using the global BEAM model, described in a companion report. Two types of local models were developed. One mimics the simplified Soft-Goods (fabric envelop) part of the BEAM NASTRAN model delivered by the project. The second investigates through-the-thickness modeling challenges for MMOD-type impacts. Both the testing and the analysis summaries contain lessons learned and areas for future efforts.

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

2017-01-01

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is tomore » compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO 2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.« less

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

2017-10-01

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

DOE PAGES

Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; ...

2017-10-23

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is tomore » compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO 2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.« less

Modeling Storm-Induced Inundation on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta for Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravens, T. M.; Allen, J.

2012-12-01

The Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is a large delta on the west coast of Alaska and one of the few remaining deltas that is largely free of anthropogenic impacts. The delta hosts a wide-range of nesting birds including the endangered Spectacled Eider. The delta plain, with an elevation of about 2 m (m.s.l.) - and an average tidal range of 2.7 m - is subject to frequent inundation by storm surges originating from the adjacent Bering Sea. Here, we report on our efforts to validate a storm-surge modeling system consisting of a course-grid ADCIRC model covering the Bering and Chukchi Seas and a Delft3D fine-grid model of the southern YK Delta. The storm surge models are validated based on measured water levels from 2007-2010 and using satellite observations of inundation due to large storms in 2005 and 2006. About 10 storms over the past 30 years are modeled. Based on model output, we computed a spatially distributed inundation index which is a time-integral of water level throughout the fine-grid model domain from individual storms and from the 30 year period. In order to examine the change in inundation in future climates, the models of the 30 year period were re-run assuming a 1 and 2 meter sea level rise. The impact of climate change on inundation frequency and intensity - using the inundation index - is reported. Future work will relate the present and projected inundation index to ecological parameters such as bird-nest concentration and vegetation type.

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 1: Summary of findings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kesel, P. G.

1977-01-01

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The discretionary model procedures were examined so that the computational viability of SEASAT data might be enhanced during the conduct of (future) sensitivity tests. The analysis effort covers: (1) examining the procedures for allowing data to influence the analysis; (2) examining the effects of varying the weights in the analysis procedure; (3) testing and implementing procedures for solving the minimization equation in an optimal way; (4) describing the impact of grid resolution on analysis; and (5) devising and implementing numerous practical solutions to analysis problems, generally.

Biophysics of olfaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques Simoes de Souza, Fabio; Antunes, Gabriela

2007-03-01

The majority of the biophysical models of olfaction have been focused on the electrical properties of the system, which is justified by the relative facility of recording the electrical activity of the olfactory cells. However, depending on the level of detail utilized, a biophysical model can explore molecular, cellular and network phenomena. This review presents the state of the art of the biophysical approach to understanding olfaction. The reader is introduced to the principal problems involving the study of olfaction and guided gradually to comprehend why it is important to develop biophysical models to investigate olfaction. A large number of representative biophysical efforts in olfaction, their main contributions, the trends for the next generations of biophysical models and the improvements that may be explored by future biophysicists of olfaction have been reviewed.

The house of gastrointestinal medicine: how academic medical centers can build a sustainable economic clinical model.

PubMed

Rustgi, Anil K; Allen, John I

2013-11-01

Academic Medical Centers (AMCs) have been given unique responsibilities to care for patients, educate future clinicians, and bring innovative research to the bedside. Over the last few decades, this tripartite mission has served the United States well, and payers (Federal, State, and commercial) have been willing to underwrite these missions with overt and covert financial subsidies. As cost containment efforts have escalated, the traditional business model of AMCs has been challenged. In this issue, Dr Anil Rustgi and I offer some insights into how AMCs must alter their business model to be sustainable in our new world of accountable care, cost containment, and clinical integration.

Quantifying Changes in Los Angeles River Breakout Triggered by Sea Level Rise Using a Hydrodynamic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; Shakeri Majd, M.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Sadegh, M.; Vahedifard, F.

2017-12-01

Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been identified as a global phenomenon that will challenge coastal communities and infrastructures through escalating risk of erosion and subsidence, as well as elevating storm surge heights. Overall, SLR not only increases frequency of future coastal flooding in low-land coastal areas, but also changes flow dynamics in rivers connected to oceans. Changes in flow dynamics (e.g., peaks, flow intensities) can elevate water surface profile locally, leading to river breakout and flooding. Quantifying river breakout provides invaluable information to local authorities when it comes to SLR mitigation and adaptation efforts. Los Angeles River (LAR) which is located in southern part of California is protected with levee systems. The focus of this study is about 18 miles of the river, starting from Pacific Ocean to Downtown Los Angeles, which protects residence and major infrastructures. We use the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) to simulate flow and its interactions with coastal water levels. HEC-RAS is capable of simulating flow in one- and two-dimensional systems, resolving Diffusive Wave Equation and Shallow Water Equation, respectively. In this study, the hydraulic model consists of one- and two-dimensional models connected through the LAR's levee system. This approach enables us to identify the onset of river breakout location alongside the LAR. The inflow data incorporated into the model obtained from a gage records and represents a significant event occurred in February 2005. This model utilizes a detail terrain model with 0.3 m LiDAR data. In order to explore effects of SLR associated with future climate changes on LAR and its levee system, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP of 4.5 and 8.5) are considered. Based on our RCPs, 24 projected SLRs are computed for future years (2030, 2050, and 2100) for three different quantiles. Our simulation results show SLR, which varies from 0.05 to 2.8 m, causes backwater at the mouth of the river, at Pacific Ocean. Consequently, flow velocities and depth changes in channel, which results in changes in onset and location of the river breakout. Our findings emphasize needs for incorporating effects of SLR in hydraulic models in order to support mitigation and adaption efforts.

Irreducible Uncertainty in Terrestrial Carbon Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovenduski, N. S.; Bonan, G. B.

2016-12-01

We quantify and isolate the sources of uncertainty in projections of carbon accumulation by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere over 2006-2100 using output from Earth System Models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We consider three independent sources of uncertainty in our analysis of variance: (1) internal variability, driven by random, internal variations in the climate system, (2) emission scenario, driven by uncertainty in future radiative forcing, and (3) model structure, wherein different models produce different projections given the same emission scenario. Whereas uncertainty in projections of ocean carbon accumulation by 2100 is 100 Pg C and driven primarily by emission scenario, uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon accumulation by 2100 is 50% larger than that of the ocean, and driven primarily by model structure. This structural uncertainty is correlated with emission scenario: the variance associated with model structure is an order of magnitude larger under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) than a mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). In an effort to reduce this structural uncertainty, we apply various model weighting schemes to our analysis of variance in terrestrial carbon accumulation projections. The largest reductions in uncertainty are achieved when giving all the weight to a single model; here the uncertainty is of a similar magnitude to the ocean projections. Such an analysis suggests that this structural uncertainty is irreducible given current terrestrial model development efforts.

Model Checking a Byzantine-Fault-Tolerant Self-Stabilizing Protocol for Distributed Clock Synchronization Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malekpour, Mahyar R.

2007-01-01

This report presents the mechanical verification of a simplified model of a rapid Byzantine-fault-tolerant self-stabilizing protocol for distributed clock synchronization systems. This protocol does not rely on any assumptions about the initial state of the system. This protocol tolerates bursts of transient failures, and deterministically converges within a time bound that is a linear function of the self-stabilization period. A simplified model of the protocol is verified using the Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV) [SMV]. The system under study consists of 4 nodes, where at most one of the nodes is assumed to be Byzantine faulty. The model checking effort is focused on verifying correctness of the simplified model of the protocol in the presence of a permanent Byzantine fault as well as confirmation of claims of determinism and linear convergence with respect to the self-stabilization period. Although model checking results of the simplified model of the protocol confirm the theoretical predictions, these results do not necessarily confirm that the protocol solves the general case of this problem. Modeling challenges of the protocol and the system are addressed. A number of abstractions are utilized in order to reduce the state space. Also, additional innovative state space reduction techniques are introduced that can be used in future verification efforts applied to this and other protocols.

Crops in silico: A community wide multi-scale computational modeling framework of plant canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Christensen, A.; Borkiewic, K.; Yiwen, X.; Ellis, A.; Panneerselvam, B.; Kannan, K.; Shrivastava, S.; Cox, D.; Hart, J.; Marshall-Colon, A.; Long, S.

2016-12-01

Current crop models predict a looming gap between supply and demand for primary foodstuffs over the next 100 years. While significant yield increases were achieved in major food crops during the early years of the green revolution, the current rates of yield increases are insufficient to meet future projected food demand. Furthermore, with projected reduction in arable land, decrease in water availability, and increasing impacts of climate change on future food production, innovative technologies are required to sustainably improve crop yield. To meet these challenges, we are developing Crops in silico (Cis), a biologically informed, multi-scale, computational modeling framework that can facilitate whole plant simulations of crop systems. The Cis framework is capable of linking models of gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, growth, and development in order to investigate crop response to different climate scenarios and resource constraints. This modeling framework will provide the mechanistic details to generate testable hypotheses toward accelerating directed breeding and engineering efforts to increase future food security. A primary objective for building such a framework is to create synergy among an inter-connected community of biologists and modelers to create a realistic virtual plant. This framework advantageously casts the detailed mechanistic understanding of individual plant processes across various scales in a common scalable framework that makes use of current advances in high performance and parallel computing. We are currently designing a user friendly interface that will make this tool equally accessible to biologists and computer scientists. Critically, this framework will provide the community with much needed tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the emergent implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment.

Overview of NASA's Propulsion 21 Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long-Davis, Mary Jo

2006-01-01

Propulsion 21 technologies contribute to reducing CO2 and NO(x) emissions and noise. Integrated Government/Industry/University research efforts have produced promising initial technical results. Graduate students from 5 partnering universities will benefit from this collaborative research--> educating the future engineering workforce. Phase 2 Efforts scheduled to be completed 3QFY06.

ILRS Activities in Monitoring Systematic Errors in SLR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlis, E. C.; Luceri, V.; Kuzmicz-Cieslak, M.; Bianco, G.

2017-12-01

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) contributes to ITRF development unique information that only Satellite Laser Ranging—SLR is sensitive to: the definition of the origin, and in equal parts with VLBI, the scale of the model. For the development of ITRF2014, the ILRS analysts adopted a revision of the internal standards and procedures in generating our contribution from the eight ILRS Analysis Centers. The improved results for the ILRS components were reflected in the resulting new time series of the ITRF origin and scale, showing insignificant trends and tighter scatter. This effort was further extended after the release of ITRF2014, with the execution of a Pilot Project (PP) in the 2016-2017 timeframe that demonstrated the robust estimation of persistent systematic errors at the millimeter level. ILRS ASC is now turning this into an operational tool to monitor station performance and to generate a history of systematics at each station, to be used with each re-analysis for future ITRF model developments. This is part of a broader ILRS effort to improve the quality control of the data collection process as well as that of our products. To this end, the ILRS has established a "Quality Control Board—QCB" that comprises of members from the analysis and engineering groups, the Central Bureau, and even user groups with special interests. The QCB meets by telecon monthly and oversees the various ongoing projects, develops ideas for new tools and future products. This presentation will focus on the main topic with an update on the results so far, the schedule for the near future and its operational implementation, along with a brief description of upcoming new ILRS products.

Prognostics using Engineering and Environmental Parameters as Applied to State of Health (SOH) Radionuclide Aerosol Sampler Analyzer (RASA) Real-Time Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchenson, K. D.; Hartley-McBride, S.; Saults, T.; Schmidt, D. P.

2006-05-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is composed in part of radionuclide particulate and gas monitoring systems. Monitoring the operational status of these systems is an important aspect of nuclear weapon test monitoring. Quality data, process control techniques, and predictive models are necessary to detect and predict system component failures. Predicting failures in advance provides time to mitigate these failures, thus minimizing operational downtime. The Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) requires IMS radionuclide systems be operational 95 percent of the time. The United States National Data Center (US NDC) offers contributing components to the IMS. This effort focuses on the initial research and process development using prognostics for monitoring and predicting failures of the RASA two (2) days into the future. The predictions, using time series methods, are input to an expert decision system, called SHADES (State of Health Airflow and Detection Expert System). The results enable personnel to make informed judgments about the health of the RASA system. Data are read from a relational database, processed, and displayed to the user in a GIS as a prototype GUI. This procedure mimics the real time application process that could be implemented as an operational system, This initial proof-of-concept effort developed predictive models focused on RASA components for a single site (USP79). Future work shall include the incorporation of other RASA systems, as well as their environmental conditions that play a significant role in performance. Similarly, SHADES currently accommodates specific component behaviors at this one site. Future work shall also include important environmental variables that play an important part of the prediction algorithms.

COSPAR/PRBEM international working group activities report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourdarie, S.; Blake, B.; Cao, J. B.; Friedel, R.; Miyoshi, Y.; Panasyuk, M.; Underwood, C.

It is now clear to everybody that the current standard AE8 AP8 model for ionising particle specification in the radiation belts must be updated But such an objective is quite difficult to reach just as a reminder to develop AE8 AP8 model in the seventies was 10 persons full time for ten years It is clear that world-wide efforts must be combined because not any individual group has the human resource to perform these new models by themselves Under COSPAR umbrella an international group of expert well distributed around the world has been created to set up a common framework for everybody involved in this field Planned activities of the international group of experts are to - Define users needs - Provide guidelines for standard file format for ionising measurements - Set up guidelines to process in-situ data on a common basis - Decide in which form the new models will have to be - Centralise all progress done world-wide to advise the community - Try to organise world-wide activities as a project to ensure complementarities and more efficiencies between all efforts done Activities of this working group since its creation will be reported as well as future plans

Test Results for Entry Guidance Methods for Space Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, John M.; Jones, Robert E.

2004-01-01

There are a number of approaches to advanced guidance and control that have the potential for achieving the goals of significantly increasing reusable launch vehicle (or any space vehicle that enters an atmosphere) safety and reliability, and reducing the cost. This paper examines some approaches to entry guidance. An effort called Integration and Testing of Advanced Guidance and Control Technologies has recently completed a rigorous testing phase where these algorithms faced high-fidelity vehicle models and were required to perform a variety of representative tests. The algorithm developers spent substantial effort improving the algorithm performance in the testing. This paper lists the test cases used to demonstrate that the desired results are achieved, shows an automated test scoring method that greatly reduces the evaluation effort required, and displays results of the tests. Results show a significant improvement over previous guidance approaches. The two best-scoring algorithm approaches show roughly equivalent results and are ready to be applied to future vehicle concepts.

Test Results for Entry Guidance Methods for Reusable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, John M.; Jones, Robert E.

2003-01-01

There are a number of approaches to advanced guidance and control (AG&C) that have the potential for achieving the goals of significantly increasing reusable launch vehicle (RLV) safety and reliability, and reducing the cost. This paper examines some approaches to entry guidance. An effort called Integration and Testing of Advanced Guidance and Control Technologies (ITAGCT) has recently completed a rigorous testing phase where these algorithms faced high-fidelity vehicle models and were required to perform a variety of representative tests. The algorithm developers spent substantial effort improving the algorithm performance in the testing. This paper lists the test cases used to demonstrate that the desired results are achieved, shows an automated test scoring method that greatly reduces the evaluation effort required, and displays results of the tests. Results show a significant improvement over previous guidance approaches. The two best-scoring algorithm approaches show roughly equivalent results and are ready to be applied to future reusable vehicle concepts.

A Review of Research on Impulsive Loading of Marine Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfiri, Maurizio; Gupta, Nikhil

Impulsive loading conditions, such as those produced by blast waves, are being increasingly recognized as relevant in marine applications. Significant research efforts are directed towards understanding the impulsive loading response of traditional naval materials, such as aluminum and steel, and advanced composites, such as laminates and sandwich structures. Several analytical studies are directed towards establishing predictive models for structural response and failure of marine structures under blast loading. In addition, experimental research efforts are focused on characterizing structural response to blast loading. The aim of this review is to provide a general overview of the state of the art on analytical and experimental studies in this field that can serve as a guideline for future research directions. Reported studies cover the Office of Naval Research-Solid Mechanics Program sponsored research along with other worldwide research efforts of relevance to marine applications. These studies have contributed to developing a fundamental knowledge of the mechanics of advanced materials subjected to impulsive loading, which is of interest to all Department of Defense branches.

Future directions in physical activity intervention research: expanding our focus to sedentary behaviors, technology, and dissemination.

PubMed

Lewis, Beth A; Napolitano, Melissa A; Buman, Matthew P; Williams, David M; Nigg, Claudio R

2017-02-01

Despite the increased health risks of a sedentary lifestyle, only 49 % of American adults participate in physical activity (PA) at the recommended levels. In an effort to move the PA field forward, we briefly review three emerging areas of PA intervention research. First, new intervention research has focused on not only increasing PA but also on decreasing sedentary behavior. Researchers should utilize randomized controlled trials, common terminology, investigate which behaviors should replace sedentary behaviors, evaluate long-term outcomes, and focus across the lifespan. Second, technology has contributed to an increase in sedentary behavior but has also led to innovative PA interventions. PA technology research should focus on large randomized trials with evidence-based components, explore social networking and innovative apps, improve PA monitoring, consider the lifespan, and be grounded in theory. Finally, in an effort to maximize public health impact, dissemination efforts should address the RE-AIM model, health disparities, and intervention costs.

Future directions in physical activity intervention research: expanding our focus to sedentary behaviors, technology, and dissemination

PubMed Central

Napolitano, Melissa A.; Buman, Matthew P.; Williams, David M.; Nigg, Claudio R.

2016-01-01

Despite the increased health risks of a sedentary lifestyle, only 49 % of American adults participate in physical activity (PA) at the recommended levels. In an effort to move the PA field forward, we briefly review three emerging areas of PA intervention research. First, new intervention research has focused on not only increasing PA but also on decreasing sedentary behavior. Researchers should utilize randomized controlled trials, common terminology, investigate which behaviors should replace sedentary behaviors, evaluate long-term outcomes, and focus across the lifespan. Second, technology has contributed to an increase in sedentary behavior but has also led to innovative PA interventions. PA technology research should focus on large randomized trials with evidence-based components, explore social networking and innovative apps, improve PA monitoring, consider the lifespan, and be grounded in theory. Finally, in an effort to maximize public health impact, dissemination efforts should address the RE-AIM model, health disparities, and intervention costs. PMID:27722907

The Ecological Areawide Management (TEAM) of leafy spurge program of the United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service.

PubMed

Anderson, Gerald L; Prosser, Chad W; Wendel, Lloyd E; Delfosse, Ernest S; Faust, Robert M

2003-01-01

The Ecological Areawide Management (TEAM) of Leafy Spurge program was developed to focus research and control efforts on a single weed, leafy spurge, and demonstrate the effectiveness of a coordinated, biologically based, integrated pest management program (IPM). This was accomplished through partnerships and teamwork that clearly demonstrated the advantages of the biologically based IPM approach. However, the success of regional weed control programs horizontally across several states and provinces also requires a vertical integration of several sectors of society. Awareness and education are the essential elements of vertical integration. Therefore, a substantial effort was made to produce a wide variety of information products specifically designed to educate different segments of society. During its tenure, land managers and agency decision makers have seen the potential of using the TEAM approach to accelerate the regional control of leafy spurge. The example set by the TEAM organization and participants is viewed as a model for future weed-control efforts.

Challenges in Discerning Atmospheric Composition in Directly Imaged Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marley, Mark S.

2017-01-01

One of the justifications motivating efforts to detect and characterize young extrasolar giant planets has been to measure atmospheric composition for comparison with that of the primary star. If the enhancement of heavy elements in the atmospheres of extrasolar giant planets, like it is for their solar system analogs, is inversely proportional to mass, then it is likely that these worlds formed by core accretion. However in practice it has been very difficult to constrain metallicity because of the complex effect of clouds. Cloud opacity varies both vertically and, in some cases, horizontally through the atmosphere. Particle size and composition, both of which impact opacity, are difficult challenges both for forward modeling and retrieval studies. In my presentation I will discuss systematic efforts to improve cloud studies to enable more reliable determinations of atmospheric composition. These efforts are relevant both to discerning composition of directly imaged young planets from ground based telescopes and future space based missions, such as WFIRST and LUVOIR.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2016-04-01

In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

Galaxy Alignments: Theory, Modelling & Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiessling, Alina; Cacciato, Marcello; Joachimi, Benjamin; Kirk, Donnacha; Kitching, Thomas D.; Leonard, Adrienne; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Schäfer, Björn Malte; Sifón, Cristóbal; Brown, Michael L.; Rassat, Anais

2015-11-01

The shapes of galaxies are not randomly oriented on the sky. During the galaxy formation and evolution process, environment has a strong influence, as tidal gravitational fields in the large-scale structure tend to align nearby galaxies. Additionally, events such as galaxy mergers affect the relative alignments of both the shapes and angular momenta of galaxies throughout their history. These "intrinsic galaxy alignments" are known to exist, but are still poorly understood. This review will offer a pedagogical introduction to the current theories that describe intrinsic galaxy alignments, including the apparent difference in intrinsic alignment between early- and late-type galaxies and the latest efforts to model them analytically. It will then describe the ongoing efforts to simulate intrinsic alignments using both N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. Due to the relative youth of this field, there is still much to be done to understand intrinsic galaxy alignments and this review summarises the current state of the field, providing a solid basis for future work.

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis.

PubMed

Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred

2016-04-01

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household-level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy-wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al-Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood-affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, David R.; McKinney, Daene C.; Lala, Jonathan M.; Byers, Alton C.; Watson, C. Scott

2016-08-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.

Operations analysis (study 2.1). Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfe, R. R.

1975-01-01

Subjects related to future STS operations concepts were investigated. The majority of effort was directed at assessing the benefits of automated space servicing concepts as related to improvements in payload procurement and shuttle utilization. Another subject was directed at understanding shuttle upper stage software development and recurring costs relative to total program projections. Space serving of automated payloads is addressed by examining the broad spectrum of payload applications with the belief that shared logistic operations will be a major contributor to reduction of future program costs. However, there are certain requirements for support of payload operations, such as availability of the payload, that may place demands upon the shuttle fleet. Because future projections of the NASA Mission Model are only representative of the payload traffic, it is important to recognize that it is the general character of operations that is significant rather than service to any single payload program.

Space Weather - Current Capabilities, Future Requirements, and the Path to Improved Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ian

2016-07-01

We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.

Technology Assessment for Future MILSATCOM Systems; An Update of the EHF Bands

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

converging these efforts, the MSO has prepared a "Technology Development Program Plan" ( TDPP ). The TOPP defines a coordinated approach to the R&D...required to insure the availability of the technology necessary to support future systems. Some of the objectives of the TDPP are: to minimize...and TDPP have illuminated the need for technology development efforts directed toward minimizing the cost- risk and schedule-risk, and insuring the

A History of Aerospace Problems, Their Solutions, Their Lessons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, R. S.

1996-01-01

The positive aspect of problem occurrences is the opportunity for learning and a challenge for innovation. The learning aspect is not restricted to the solution period of the problem occurrence, but can become the beacon for problem prevention on future programs. Problems/failures serve as a point of departure for scaling to new designs. To ensure that problems/failures and their solutions guide the future programs, a concerted effort has been expended to study these problems, their solutions, their derived lessons learned, and projections for future programs. This includes identification of technology thrusts, process changes, codes development, etc. However, they must not become an excuse for adding layers upon layers of standards, criteria, and requirements, but must serve as guidelines that assist instead of stifling engineers. This report is an extension of prior efforts to accomplish this task. Although these efforts only scratch the surface, it is a beginning that others must complete.

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the 18th Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cadle, S. H.; Ayala, A.; Black, K. N.

2009-02-01

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) convened its 18th On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop March 31-April 2, 2008, with 104 presentations describing the most recent mobile source-related emissions research. In this paper we summarize the presentations from researchers whose efforts are improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to air quality. Participants in the workshop discussed emission models and emissions inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles (with an emphasis in this workshop on particle emissions), effects of fuels on emissions, evaluation of in-use emission-control programs, and efforts to improve our capabilities in performingmore » on-board emissions measurements, as well as topics for future research.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumitrescu, Eugene; Humble, Travis S.

The accurate and reliable characterization of quantum dynamical processes underlies efforts to validate quantum technologies, where discrimination between competing models of observed behaviors inform efforts to fabricate and operate qubit devices. We present a protocol for quantum channel discrimination that leverages advances in direct characterization of quantum dynamics (DCQD) codes. We demonstrate that DCQD codes enable selective process tomography to improve discrimination between entangling and correlated quantum dynamics. Numerical simulations show selective process tomography requires only a few measurement configurations to achieve a low false alarm rate and that the DCQD encoding improves the resilience of the protocol to hiddenmore » sources of noise. Lastly, our results show that selective process tomography with DCQD codes is useful for efficiently distinguishing sources of correlated crosstalk from uncorrelated noise in current and future experimental platforms.« less

Dynamic Impact Testing and Model Development in Support of NASA's Advanced Composites Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Pereira, J. Michael; Goldberg, Robert; Rassaian, Mostafa

2018-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide an executive overview of the HEDI effort for NASA's Advanced Composites Program and establish the foundation for the remaining papers to follow in the 2018 SciTech special session NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact. The paper summarizes the work done for the Advanced Composites Program to advance our understanding of the behavior of composite materials during high energy impact events and to advance the ability of analytical tools to provide predictive simulations. The experimental program carried out at GRC is summarized and a status on the current development state for MAT213 will be provided. Future work will be discussed as the HEDI effort transitions from fundamental analysis and testing to investigating sub-component structural concept response to impact events.

Inventory and comparative evaluation of seabed mapping, classification and modeling activities in the Northwest Atlantic, USA to support regional ocean planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumchenia, Emily J.; Guarinello, Marisa L.; Carey, Drew A.; Lipsky, Andrew; Greene, Jennifer; Mayer, Larry; Nixon, Matthew E.; Weber, John

2015-06-01

Efforts are in motion globally to address coastal and marine management needs through spatial planning and concomitant seabed habitat mapping. Contrasting strategies are often evident in these processes among local, regional, national and international scientific approaches and policy needs. In answer to such contrasts among its member states, the United States Northeast Regional Ocean Council formed a Habitat Working Group to conduct a regional inventory and comparative evaluation of seabed characterization, classification, and modeling activities in New England. The goals of this effort were to advance regional understanding of ocean habitats and identify opportunities for collaboration. Working closely with the Habitat Working Group, we organized and led the inventory and comparative analysis with a focus on providing processes and tools that can be used by scientists and managers, updated and adapted for future use, and applied in other ocean management regions throughout the world. Visual schematics were a critical component of the comparative analysis and aided discussion among scientists and managers. Regional consensus was reached on a common habitat classification scheme (U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard) for regional seabed maps. Results and schematics were presented at a region-wide workshop where further steps were taken to initiate collaboration among projects. The workshop culminated in an agreement on a set of future seabed mapping goals for the region. The work presented here may serve as an example to other ocean planning regions in the U.S., Europe or elsewhere seeking to integrate a variety of seabed characterization, classification and modeling activities.

Numerical Modeling of Propellant Boil-Off in a Cryogenic Storage Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, A. K.; Steadman, T. E.; Maroney, J. L.; Sass, J. P.; Fesmire, J. E.

2007-01-01

A numerical model to predict boil-off of stored propellant in large spherical cryogenic tanks has been developed. Accurate prediction of tank boil-off rates for different thermal insulation systems was the goal of this collaboration effort. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, integrating flow analysis and conjugate heat transfer for solving complex fluid system problems, was used to create the model. Calculation of tank boil-off rate requires simultaneous simulation of heat transfer processes among liquid propellant, vapor ullage space, and tank structure. The reference tank for the boil-off model was the 850,000 gallon liquid hydrogen tank at Launch Complex 39B (LC- 39B) at Kennedy Space Center, which is under study for future infrastructure improvements to support the Constellation program. The methodology employed in the numerical model was validated using a sub-scale model and tank. Experimental test data from a 1/15th scale version of the LC-39B tank using both liquid hydrogen and liquid nitrogen were used to anchor the analytical predictions of the sub-scale model. Favorable correlations between sub-scale model and experimental test data have provided confidence in full-scale tank boil-off predictions. These methods are now being used in the preliminary design for other cases including future launch vehicles

Coupling Processes between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Shia, Run-Lie; Scott, Courtney J.; Sze, Nien Dak

1998-01-01

This is the fourth semi-annual report for NAS5-97039, covering the time period July through December 1998. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling tools for this work are the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) two-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER two-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry. For this six month period, we report on a modeling study of new rate constant which modify the NOx/NOy ratio in the lower stratosphere; sensitivity to changes in stratospheric water vapor in the future atmosphere; a study of N2O and CH4 observations which has allowed us to adjust diffusion in the 2-D CTM in order to obtain appropriate polar vortex isolation; a study of SF6 and age of air with comparisons of models and measurements; and a report on the Models and Measurements II effort.

Ecological genomics meets community-level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Keller, Stephen R

2015-01-01

Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity analysis to help answer this question, and make the computation of sensitivity indices computationally tractable using a combination of polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo techniques.

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

PubMed Central

Visconti, Piero; Pressey, Robert L.; Giorgini, Daniele; Maiorano, Luigi; Bakkenes, Michel; Boitani, Luigi; Alkemade, Rob; Falcucci, Alessandra; Chiozza, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo

2011-01-01

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world. PMID:21844048

The use of machine learning for the identification of peripheral artery disease and future mortality risk.

PubMed

Ross, Elsie Gyang; Shah, Nigam H; Dalman, Ronald L; Nead, Kevin T; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2016-11-01

A key aspect of the precision medicine effort is the development of informatics tools that can analyze and interpret "big data" sets in an automated and adaptive fashion while providing accurate and actionable clinical information. The aims of this study were to develop machine learning algorithms for the identification of disease and the prognostication of mortality risk and to determine whether such models perform better than classical statistical analyses. Focusing on peripheral artery disease (PAD), patient data were derived from a prospective, observational study of 1755 patients who presented for elective coronary angiography. We employed multiple supervised machine learning algorithms and used diverse clinical, demographic, imaging, and genomic information in a hypothesis-free manner to build models that could identify patients with PAD and predict future mortality. Comparison was made to standard stepwise linear regression models. Our machine-learned models outperformed stepwise logistic regression models both for the identification of patients with PAD (area under the curve, 0.87 vs 0.76, respectively; P = .03) and for the prediction of future mortality (area under the curve, 0.76 vs 0.65, respectively; P = .10). Both machine-learned models were markedly better calibrated than the stepwise logistic regression models, thus providing more accurate disease and mortality risk estimates. Machine learning approaches can produce more accurate disease classification and prediction models. These tools may prove clinically useful for the automated identification of patients with highly morbid diseases for which aggressive risk factor management can improve outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

Summary of Current and Future MSFC International Space Station Environmental Control and Life Support System Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Charles D.; Carrasquillo, Robyn L.; Minton-Summers, Silvia

1997-01-01

This paper provides a summary of current work accomplished under technical task agreement (TTA) by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) regarding the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) as well as future planning activities in support of the International Space Station (ISS). Current activities include ECLSS computer model development, component design and development, subsystem integrated system testing, life testing, and government furnished equipment delivered to the ISS program. A long range plan for the MSFC ECLSS test facility is described whereby the current facility would be upgraded to support integrated station ECLSS operations. ECLSS technology development efforts proposed to be performed under the Advanced Engineering Technology Development (AETD) program are also discussed.

Respiratory neuroplasticity - Overview, significance and future directions.

PubMed

Fuller, David D; Mitchell, Gordon S

2017-01-01

Neuroplasticity is an important property of the neural system controlling breathing. However, our appreciation for its importance is still relatively new, and we have much to learn concerning different forms of plasticity, their underlying mechanisms, and their biological and clinical significance. In this brief review, we discuss several well-studied models of respiratory plasticity, including plasticity initiated by inactivity in the respiratory system, intermittent and sustained hypoxia, and traumatic injury to the spinal cord. Other aspects of respiratory plasticity are considered in other contributions to this special edition of Experimental Neurology on respiratory plasticity. Finally, we conclude with discussions concerning the biological and clinical significance of respiratory motor plasticity, and areas in need of future research effort. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Two-Dimensional Flood-Inundation Model of the Flint River at Albany, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Musser, Jonathan W.; Dyar, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

Potential flow characteristics of future flooding along a 4.8-mile reach of the Flint River in Albany, Georgia, were simulated using recent digital-elevation-model data and the U.S. Geological Survey finite-element surface-water modeling system for two-dimensional flow in the horizontal plane (FESWMS-2DH). Simulated inundated areas, in 1-foot (ft) increments, were created for water-surface altitudes at the Flint River at Albany streamgage (02352500) from 192.5-ft altitude with a flow of 123,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) to 179.5-ft altitude with a flow of 52,500 ft3/s. The model was calibrated to match actual floods during July 1994 and March 2005 and Federal Emergency Management Administration floodplain maps. Continuity checks of selected stream profiles indicate the area near the Oakridge Drive bridge had lower velocities than other areas of the Flint River, which contributed to a rise in the flood-surface profile. The modeled inundated areas were mapped onto monochrome orthophoto imagery for use in planning for future floods. As part of a cooperative effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, the City of Albany, and Dougherty County, Georgia, conducted this study.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Investing in our future: unrealized opportunities for funding graduate psychology training.

PubMed

Reid-Arndt, Stephanie A; Stucky, Kirk; Cheak-Zamora, Nancy; DeLeon, Patrick H; Frank, Robert G

2010-11-01

Changes in the health care environment have brought challenges and opportunities to the field of psychology. Practitioners have been successful in modifying service models to absorb losses of financial support for behavioral health care, due to managed care and public policy changes, while simultaneously managing the growing need for these services. However, in this reactive mode of responding to evolutions in the health care system, the field of psychology has at times lost sight of the long-term vision required to promote psychology's inclusion in the health care system of the future. In particular, a focus on training psychologists and ensuring the availability of funding to support these activities must be a priority in planning for the future. This article provides an overview of federal programs that currently offer funding for psychology training, as well as other opportunities for federal funding that have been unrealized. Details regarding advocacy efforts that were required to secure available sources of funding are given, followed by consideration of strategies for taking advantage of existing resources and prioritizing advocacy for additional funding. Funding for psychology training provides an avenue for increasing the number of well-trained psychologists who can serve patients' mental and behavioral health needs and thereby improve health outcomes. Moreover, capitalizing on available funding opportunities for psychology training and promoting efforts to expand these opportunities will help ensure that the field of psychology is positioned to remain an important contributor to the health care system of the future. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Solar Power for Future NASA Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Sheila G.; Landis, Geoffrey A.

2014-01-01

An overview of NASA missions and technology development efforts are discussed. Future spacecraft will need higher power, higher voltage, and much lower cost solar arrays to enable a variety of missions. One application driving development of these future arrays is solar electric propulsion.

Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Durand, Gaël

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computationalmore » experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.« less

Modeling water quality in the Tualatin River, Oregon, 1991-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.; Wood, Tamara M.

2001-01-01

The calibration of a model of flow, temperature, and water quality in the Tualatin River, Oregon, originally calibrated for the summers of 1991 through 1993, was extended to the summers of 1991 through 1997. The model is now calibrated for a total period of 42 months during the May through October periods of 7 hydrologically distinct years. Based on a modified version of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers model CE-QUAL-W2, this model provides a good fit to the measured data for streamflow, water temperature, and water quality constituents such as chloride, ammonia, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, phytoplankton, and dissolved oxygen. In particular, the model simulates ammonia concentrations and the effects of instream ammonia nitrification very well, which is critical to ongoing efforts to revise ammonia regulations for the Tualatin River. In addition, the model simulates the timing, duration, and relative size of algal blooms with sufficient accuracy to provide important insights for regulators and managers of this river.Efforts to limit the size of algal blooms through phosphorus control measures are apparent in the model simulations, which show this limitation on algal growth. Such measures are largely responsible for avoiding violations of the State of Oregon maximum pH standard of 8.5 in recent years, but they have not yet reduced algal biomass levels below the State of Oregon nuisance phytoplankton growth guideline of 15 ?g/L chlorophyll-a.Most of the dynamics of the instream dissolved oxygen concentrations are captured by the model. About half of the error in the simulated dissolved oxygen concentrations is directly attributable to error in the size of the simulated phytoplankton population. To achieve greater accuracy in simulating dissolved oxygen, therefore, it will be necessary to increase accuracy in the simulation of Tualatin River phytoplankton.Future efforts may include the introduction of multiple algal groups in the model. This model of the Tualatin River continues to be used as a quantitative tool to aid in the management of this important resource.

Physical Concepts and Modeling Procedures for Picosecond and Subpicosecond Distributed Circuits

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-01

the GaA q process in Ginzton3 lab and pioneering the nonlinear transmission line effort. i Brian Kolner, Kurt Weingarten, Mark Rodwell, Reza Majidy -Ahy...Sobol), Vol. 8, Academic Press, New York, 1974. [3.18] R. Majidi -Ahy, B.A. Auld, and D.M. Bloom, 蔴 GHz on-wafer S-parameter measurements by...obsolete. CHAPTER 6. FUTURE DIRECTIONS 96 References [6.1] Cascade Microtech Inc., P.O. Box 2015, Beaverton, OR 97075. [6.21 R. Majidi -Ahy, B.A. Auld, and

Displacement Damage Effects in Solar Cells: Mining Damage From the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed Space Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardage, Donna (Technical Monitor); Walters, R. J.; Morton, T. L.; Messenger, S. R.

2004-01-01

The objective is to develop an improved space solar cell radiation response analysis capability and to produce a computer modeling tool which implements the analysis. This was accomplished through analysis of solar cell flight data taken on the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed experiment. This effort specifically addresses issues related to rapid technological change in the area of solar cells for space applications in order to enhance system performance, decrease risk, and reduce cost for future missions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christon, Mark A.; Bakosi, Jozsef; Francois, Marianne M.

This talk presents an overview of the multiphase flow efforts with Hydra-TH. The presentation begins with a definition of the requirements and design principles for multiphase flow relevant to CASL-centric problems. A brief survey of existing codes and their solution algorithms is presented before turning the model formulation selected for Hydra-TH. The issues of hyperbolicity and wellposedness are outlined, and a three candidate solution algorithms are discussed. The development status of Hydra-TH for multiphase flow is then presented with a brief summary and discussion of future directions for this work.

Space shuttle hypergolic bipropellant RCS engine design study, Bell model 8701

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A research program was conducted to define the level of the current technology base for reaction control system rocket engines suitable for space shuttle applications. The project consisted of engine analyses, design, fabrication, and tests. The specific objectives are: (1) extrapolating current engine design experience to design of an RCS engine with required safety, reliability, performance, and operational capability, (2) demonstration of multiple reuse capability, and (3) identification of current design and technology deficiencies and critical areas for future effort.

Hsp70 in cancer: back to the future

PubMed Central

Sherman, Michael Y.; Gabai, Vladimir L.

2014-01-01

Mechanistic studies from cell culture and animal models have revealed critical roles for the heat shock protein Hsp70 in cancer initiation and progression. Surprisingly, many effects of Hsp70 on cancer have not been related to its chaperone activity, but rather to its role(s) in regulating cell signaling. A major factor that directs Hsp70 signaling activity appears to be the co-chaperone Bag3. Here, we review these recent breakthroughs, and how these discoveries drive drug development efforts. PMID:25347739

Modelling efforts needed to advance herpes simplex virus (HSV) vaccine development: Key findings from the World Health Organization Consultation on HSV Vaccine Impact Modelling.

PubMed

Gottlieb, Sami L; Giersing, Birgitte; Boily, Marie-Claude; Chesson, Harrell; Looker, Katharine J; Schiffer, Joshua; Spicknall, Ian; Hutubessy, Raymond; Broutet, Nathalie

2017-06-21

Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus (HSV) is an important goal for global sexual and reproductive health. In order to more precisely define the health and economic burden of HSV infection and the theoretical impact and cost-effectiveness of an HSV vaccine, in 2015 the World Health Organization convened an expert consultation meeting on HSV vaccine impact modelling. The experts reviewed existing model-based estimates and dynamic models of HSV infection to outline critical future modelling needs to inform development of a comprehensive business case and preferred product characteristics for an HSV vaccine. This article summarizes key findings and discussions from the meeting on modelling needs related to HSV burden, costs, and vaccine impact, essential data needs to carry out those models, and important model components and parameters. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Enabling Science and Technology Research Teams: A Breadmaking Metaphor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pennington, Deana

2010-01-01

Anyone who has been involved with a cross-disciplinary team that combines scientists and information technology specialists knows just how tough it can be to move these efforts forward. Decades of experience point to the transformative potential of technology-enabled science efforts, and the success stories offer hope for future efforts. But for…

Bottomland hardwood restoration in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley: Looking past the trees to see the forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, R.R.; Oliver, J.M.; Twedt, D.J.; Uihlein, W.B.; Fredrickson, L.H.; King, S.L.; Kaminski, R.M.

2005-01-01

Planned restoration of bottomland hardwoods is important to adequately address negative consequences resulting from the severe loss and fragmentation of forested wetlands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Reforestation efforts have been promoted through government initiatives of state and federal agencies (e.g. Wetland Reserve Program) and private conservation groups. To clarify discussions of forested wetland restoration, we offer definitions of reforestation and restoration, review historic reforestation practices, identify additional needs, and propose a conceptual framework to assist in future reforestation efforts. Future reforestation efforts should include: (1) comprehensive planning among participating agencies, (2) standardized documentation of methods, and (3) short-term and long-term monitoring protocols that permit refinement of methodologies. Implementation of these concepts will promote cooperative planning among participants and facilitate research to evaluate bottomland hardwood restoration efforts.

Examining the Stationarity Assumption for Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections of Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wootten, A.; Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Mcpherson, R. A.

2017-12-01

Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) approaches attempt to refine global climate model (GCM) information via statistical relationships between observations and GCM simulations. The aim of such downscaling efforts is to create added-value climate projections by adding finer spatial detail and reducing biases. The results of statistical downscaling exercises are often used in impact assessments under the assumption that past performance provides an indicator of future results. Given prior research describing the danger of this assumption with regards to temperature, this study expands the perfect model experimental design from previous case studies to test the stationarity assumption with respect to precipitation. Assuming stationarity implies the performance of ESD methods are similar between the future projections and historical training. Case study results from four quantile-mapping based ESD methods demonstrate violations of the stationarity assumption for both central tendency and extremes of precipitation. These violations vary geographically and seasonally. For the four ESD methods tested the greatest challenges for downscaling of daily total precipitation projections occur in regions with limited precipitation and for extremes of precipitation along Southeast coastal regions. We conclude with a discussion of future expansion of the perfect model experimental design and the implications for improving ESD methods and providing guidance on the use of ESD techniques for impact assessments and decision-support.

Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

2011-12-01

This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using an Adoption Design to Separate Genetic, Prenatal, and Temperament Influences on Toddler Executive Function

PubMed Central

Leve, Leslie D.; DeGarmo, David S.; Bridgett, David J.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Harold, Gordon T.; Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Reiss, David

2012-01-01

Poor executive functioning has been implicated in children’s concurrent and future behavioral difficulties, making work aimed at understanding processes related to the development of early executive function (EF) critical for models of developmental psychopathology. Deficits in EF have been associated with adverse prenatal experiences, genetic influences, and temperament characteristics. However, our ability to disentangle the predictive and independent effects of these influences has been limited by a dearth of genetically-informed research designs that also consider prenatal influences. The present study examined EF and language development in a sample of 361 toddlers who were adopted at birth and reared in non-relative adoptive families. Predictors included genetic influences (as inherited from birth mothers), prenatal risk, and growth in child negative emotionality. Structural equation modeling indicated that the effect of prenatal risk on toddler effortful attention at age 27 months became nonsignificant once genetic influences were considered in the model. In addition, genetic influences had unique effects on toddler effortful attention. Latent growth modeling indicated that increases in toddler negative emotionality from 9 to 27 months were associated with poorer delay of gratification and poorer language development. Similar results were obtained in models incorporating birth father data. Mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of EF deficits are discussed. PMID:22799580

Using an adoption design to separate genetic, prenatal, and temperament influences on toddler executive function.

PubMed

Leve, Leslie D; DeGarmo, David S; Bridgett, David J; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Shaw, Daniel S; Harold, Gordon T; Natsuaki, Misaki N; Reiss, David

2013-06-01

Poor executive functioning has been implicated in children's concurrent and future behavioral difficulties, making work aimed at understanding processes related to the development of early executive function (EF) critical for models of developmental psychopathology. Deficits in EF have been associated with adverse prenatal experiences, genetic influences, and temperament characteristics. However, our ability to disentangle the predictive and independent effects of these influences has been limited by a dearth of genetically informed research designs that also consider prenatal influences. The present study examined EF and language development in a sample of 361 toddlers who were adopted at birth and reared in nonrelative adoptive families. Predictors included genetic influences (as inherited from birth mothers), prenatal risk, and growth in child negative emotionality. Structural equation modeling indicated that the effect of prenatal risk on toddler effortful attention at age 27 months became nonsignificant once genetic influences were considered in the model. In addition, genetic influences had unique effects on toddler effortful attention. Latent growth modeling indicated that increases in toddler negative emotionality from 9 to 27 months were associated with poorer delay of gratification and poorer language development. Similar results were obtained in models incorporating birth father data. Mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of EF deficits are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Sensors, nano-electronics and photonics for the Army of 2030 and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perconti, Philip; Alberts, W. C. K.; Bajaj, Jagmohan; Schuster, Jonathan; Reed, Meredith

2016-02-01

The US Army's future operating concept will rely heavily on sensors, nano-electronics and photonics technologies to rapidly develop situational understanding in challenging and complex environments. Recent technology breakthroughs in integrated 3D multiscale semiconductor modeling (from atoms-to-sensors), combined with ARL's Open Campus business model for collaborative research provide a unique opportunity to accelerate the adoption of new technology for reduced size, weight, power, and cost of Army equipment. This paper presents recent research efforts on multi-scale modeling at the US Army Research Laboratory (ARL) and proposes the establishment of a modeling consortium or center for semiconductor materials modeling. ARL's proposed Center for Semiconductor Materials Modeling brings together government, academia, and industry in a collaborative fashion to continuously push semiconductor research forward for the mutual benefit of all Army partners.

Thermal fatigue durability for advanced propulsion materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.

1989-01-01

A review is presented of thermal and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) crack initiation life prediction and cyclic constitutive modeling efforts sponsored recently by the NASA Lewis Research Center in support of advanced aeronautical propulsion research. A brief description is provided of the more significant material durability models that were created to describe TMF fatigue resistance of both isotropic and anisotropic superalloys, with and without oxidation resistant coatings. The two most significant crack initiation models are the cyclic damage accumulation model and the total strain version of strainrange partitioning. Unified viscoplastic cyclic constitutive models are also described. A troika of industry, university, and government research organizations contributed to the generation of these analytic models. Based upon current capabilities and established requirements, an attempt is made to project which TMF research activities most likely will impact future generation propulsion systems.

Using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction to Understand College Students' STI Testing Beliefs, Intentions, and Behaviors.

PubMed

Wombacher, Kevin; Dai, Minhao; Matig, Jacob J; Harrington, Nancy Grant

2018-03-22

To identify salient behavioral determinants related to STI testing among college students by testing a model based on the integrative model of behavioral (IMBP) prediction. 265 undergraduate students from a large university in the Southeastern US. Formative and survey research to test an IMBP-based model that explores the relationships between determinants and STI testing intention and behavior. Results of path analyses supported a model in which attitudinal beliefs predicted intention and intention predicted behavior. Normative beliefs and behavioral control beliefs were not significant in the model; however, select individual normative and control beliefs were significantly correlated with intention and behavior. Attitudinal beliefs are the strongest predictor of STI testing intention and behavior. Future efforts to increase STI testing rates should identify and target salient attitudinal beliefs.

Analysis of the Lenticular Jointed MARSIS Antenna Deployment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mobrem, Mehran; Adams, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes important milestones in a yearlong comprehensive effort which culminated in successful deployments of the MARSIS antenna booms in May and June of 2005. Experimentally measured straight section and hinge properties are incorporated into specialized modeling techniques that are used to simulate the boom lenticular joints. System level models are exercised to understand the boom deployment dynamics and spacecraft level implications. Discussion includes a comparison of ADAMS simulation results to measured flight data taken during the three boom deployments. Important parameters that govern lenticular joint behavior are outlined and a short summary of lessons learned and recommendations is included to better understand future applications of this technology.

Nogales flood detention study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Levick, Lainie; Guertin, D. Phillip; Callegary, James; Guadarrama, Jesus Quintanar; Anaya, Claudia Zulema Gil; Prichard, Andrea; Gray, Floyd; Castellanos, Edgar; Tepezano, Edgar; Huth, Hans; Vandervoet, Prescott; Rodriguez, Saul; Nunez, Jose; Atwood, Donald; Granillo, Gilberto Patricio Olivero; Ceballos, Francisco Octavio Gastellum

2010-01-01

Flooding in Ambos Nogales often exceeds the capacity of the channel and adjacent land areas, endangering many people. The Nogales Wash is being studied to prevent future flood disasters and detention features are being installed in tributaries of the wash. This paper describes the application of the KINEROS2 model and efforts to understand the capacity of these detention features under various flood and urbanization scenarios. Results depict a reduction in peak flow for the 10-year, 1-hour event based on current land use in tributaries with detention features. However, model results also demonstrate that larger storm events and increasing urbanization will put a strain on the features and limit their effectiveness.

Active controls: A look at analytical methods and associated tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newsom, J. R.; Adams, W. M., Jr.; Mukhopadhyay, V.; Tiffany, S. H.; Abel, I.

1984-01-01

A review of analytical methods and associated tools for active controls analysis and design problems is presented. Approaches employed to develop mathematical models suitable for control system analysis and/or design are discussed. Significant efforts have been expended to develop tools to generate the models from the standpoint of control system designers' needs and develop the tools necessary to analyze and design active control systems. Representative examples of these tools are discussed. Examples where results from the methods and tools have been compared with experimental data are also presented. Finally, a perspective on future trends in analysis and design methods is presented.

Potential Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change on Tampa Bay Estuary Critical Coastal Habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, Edward T.; Greening, Holly S.

2014-02-01

The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.

Potential impacts and management implications of climate change on Tampa Bay estuary critical coastal habitats.

PubMed

Sherwood, Edward T; Greening, Holly S

2014-02-01

The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.

Defense AT&L Magazine (Volume 39, Number 5, September-October 2010)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

coordinate and accelerate our near-term efforts. We have been focused on such things as widening the delivery pipe for MRAPs [mine resistant ambush pro...parked in the high desert heat . Seven years later, the scene is even more impressive, as the number of vehicles—in various states of readiness—has grown...activation efforts for future weapon systems. Going organic is the way of the future for farmers and mem - bers of the defense acquisition workforce

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Activational and effort-related aspects of motivation: neural mechanisms and implications for psychopathology

PubMed Central

Yohn, Samantha E.; López-Cruz, Laura; San Miguel, Noemí; Correa, Mercè

2016-01-01

Abstract Motivation has been defined as the process that allows organisms to regulate their internal and external environment, and control the probability, proximity and availability of stimuli. As such, motivation is a complex process that is critical for survival, which involves multiple behavioural functions mediated by a number of interacting neural circuits. Classical theories of motivation suggest that there are both directional and activational aspects of motivation, and activational aspects (i.e. speed and vigour of both the instigation and persistence of behaviour) are critical for enabling organisms to overcome work-related obstacles or constraints that separate them from significant stimuli. The present review discusses the role of brain dopamine and related circuits in behavioural activation, exertion of effort in instrumental behaviour, and effort-related decision-making, based upon both animal and human studies. Impairments in behavioural activation and effort-related aspects of motivation are associated with psychiatric symptoms such as anergia, fatigue, lassitude and psychomotor retardation, which cross multiple pathologies, including depression, schizophrenia, and Parkinson’s disease. Therefore, this review also attempts to provide an interdisciplinary approach that integrates findings from basic behavioural neuroscience, behavioural economics, clinical neuropsychology, psychiatry, and neurology, to provide a coherent framework for future research and theory in this critical field. Although dopamine systems are a critical part of the brain circuitry regulating behavioural activation, exertion of effort, and effort-related decision-making, mesolimbic dopamine is only one part of a distributed circuitry that includes multiple neurotransmitters and brain areas. Overall, there is a striking similarity between the brain areas involved in behavioural activation and effort-related processes in rodents and in humans. Animal models of effort-related decision-making are highly translatable to humans, and an emerging body of evidence indicates that alterations in effort-based decision-making are evident in several psychiatric and neurological disorders. People with major depression, schizophrenia, and Parkinson’s disease show evidence of decision-making biases towards a lower exertion of effort. Translational studies linking research with animal models, human volunteers, and clinical populations are greatly expanding our knowledge about the neural basis of effort-related motivational dysfunction, and it is hoped that this research will ultimately lead to improved treatment for motivational and psychomotor symptoms in psychiatry and neurology. PMID:27189581

Space physiology IV: mathematical modeling of the cardiovascular system in space exploration.

PubMed

Keith Sharp, M; Batzel, Jerry Joseph; Montani, Jean-Pierre

2013-08-01

Mathematical modeling represents an important tool for analyzing cardiovascular function during spaceflight. This review describes how modeling of the cardiovascular system can contribute to space life science research and illustrates this process via modeling efforts to study postflight orthostatic intolerance (POI), a key issue for spaceflight. Examining this application also provides a context for considering broader applications of modeling techniques to the challenges of bioastronautics. POI, which affects a large fraction of astronauts in stand tests upon return to Earth, presents as dizziness, fainting and other symptoms, which can diminish crew performance and cause safety hazards. POI on the Moon or Mars could be more critical. In the field of bioastronautics, POI has been the dominant application of cardiovascular modeling for more than a decade, and a number of mechanisms for POI have been investigated. Modeling approaches include computational models with a range of incorporated factors and hemodynamic sophistication, and also physical models tested in parabolic and orbital flight. Mathematical methods such as parameter sensitivity analysis can help identify key system mechanisms. In the case of POI, this could lead to more effective countermeasures. Validation is a persistent issue in modeling efforts, and key considerations and needs for experimental data to synergistically improve understanding of cardiovascular responses are outlined. Future directions in cardiovascular modeling include subject-specific assessment of system status, as well as research on integrated physiological responses, leading, for instance, to assessment of subject-specific susceptibility to POI or effects of cardiovascular alterations on muscular, vision and cognitive function.

Schools, Families, and the Prevention of Child Maltreatment: Lessons That Can Be Learned From a Literature Review.

PubMed

Admon Livny, Karen; Katz, Carmit

2018-04-01

Child maltreatment is a worldwide social problem that receives considerable attention. However, prevention efforts remain rare, allowing the phenomenon to continue and spread. The aim of the current article is to systematically review evidence-based prevention efforts that address schools and families as key stakeholders for preventing child maltreatment. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, a thorough literature review revealed that only five programs matched the inclusion criteria for the current article. These programs were analyzed for several domains, including level of prevention, target population, participants, and the programs' outcomes. The current review highlights the urgent needs to develop, modify, and further evaluate prevention programs for child maltreatment in the context of the ecological model. More specifically, it illuminates the need to create and champion programs that enhance the collaboration between families and schools, both of which are key stakeholders within the phenomenon of child maltreatment. Collaboration between policymakers, researchers, and practitioners should guide future efforts by promoting cultural adaptation to such programs and by integrating children's perceptions to improve these efforts and to benefit everyone involved.

End-to-end modeling as part of an integrated research program in the Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punt, André E.; Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim Y.; Hunt, George L.; Wiese, Francis K.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, the advice provided to fishery managers has focused on the trade-offs between short- and long-term yields, and between future resource size and expected future catches. The harvest control rules that are used to provide management advice consequently relate catches to stock biomass levels expressed relative to reference biomass levels. There are, however, additional trade-offs. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) aims to consider fish and fisheries in their ecological context, taking into account physical, biological, economic, and social factors. However, making EBFM operational remains challenging. It is generally recognized that end-to-end modeling should be a key part of implementing EBFM, along with harvest control rules that use information in addition to estimates of stock biomass to provide recommendations for management actions. Here we outline the process for selecting among alternative management strategies in an ecosystem context and summarize a Field-integrated End-To-End modeling program, or FETE, intended to implement this process as part of the Bering Sea Project. A key aspect of this project was that, from the start, the FETE included a management strategy evaluation component to compare management strategies. Effective use of end-to-end modeling requires that the models developed for a system are indeed integrated across climate drivers, lower trophic levels, fish population dynamics, and fisheries and their management. We summarize the steps taken by the program managers to promote integration of modeling efforts by multiple investigators and highlight the lessons learned during the project that can be used to guide future use and design of end-to-end models.

Implicit cognitive aggression among young male prisoners: Association with dispositional and current aggression.

PubMed

Ireland, Jane L; Adams, Christine

2015-01-01

The current study explores associations between implicit and explicit aggression in young adult male prisoners, seeking to apply the Reflection-Impulsive Model and indicate parity with elements of the General Aggression Model and social cognition. Implicit cognitive aggressive processing is not an area that has been examined among prisoners. Two hundred and sixty two prisoners completed an implicit cognitive aggression measure (Puzzle Test) and explicit aggression measures, covering current behaviour (DIPC-R) and aggression disposition (AQ). It was predicted that dispositional aggression would be predicted by implicit cognitive aggression, and that implicit cognitive aggression would predict current engagement in aggressive behaviour. It was also predicted that more impulsive implicit cognitive processing would associate with aggressive behaviour whereas cognitively effortful implicit cognitive processing would not. Implicit aggressive cognitive processing was associated with increased dispositional aggression but not current reports of aggressive behaviour. Impulsive implicit cognitive processing of an aggressive nature predicted increased dispositional aggression whereas more cognitively effortful implicit cognitive aggression did not. The article concludes by outlining the importance of accounting for implicit cognitive processing among prisoners and the need to separate such processing into facets (i.e. impulsive vs. cognitively effortful). Implications for future research and practice in this novel area of study are indicated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background noise spectra of global seismic stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wada, M.M.; Claassen, J.P.

1996-08-01

Over an extended period of time station noise spectra were collected from various sources for use in estimating the detection and location performance of global networks of seismic stations. As the database of noise spectra enlarged and duplicate entries became available, an effort was mounted to more carefully select station noise spectra while discarding others. This report discusses the methodology and criteria by which the noise spectra were selected. It also identifies and illustrates the station noise spectra which survived the selection process and which currently contribute to the modeling efforts. The resulting catalog of noise statistics not only benefitsmore » those who model network performance but also those who wish to select stations on the basis of their noise level as may occur in designing networks or in selecting seismological data for analysis on the basis of station noise level. In view of the various ways by which station noise were estimated by the different contributors, it is advisable that future efforts which predict network performance have available station noise data and spectral estimation methods which are compatible with the statistics underlying seismic noise. This appropriately requires (1) averaging noise over seasonal and/or diurnal cycles, (2) averaging noise over time intervals comparable to those employed by actual detectors, and (3) using logarithmic measures of the noise.« less

Warthog: A MOOSE-Based Application for the Direct Code Coupling of BISON and PROTEUS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCaskey, Alexander J.; Slattery, Stuart; Billings, Jay Jay

The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program from the Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy provides a robust toolkit for the modeling and simulation of current and future advanced nuclear reactor designs. This toolkit provides these technologies organized across product lines: two divisions targeted at fuels and end-to-end reactor modeling, and a third for integration, coupling, and high-level workflow management. The Fuels Product Line and the Reactor Product line provide advanced computational technologies that serve each respective field well, however, their current lack of integration presents a major impediment to future improvements of simulation solution fidelity. Theremore » is a desire for the capability to mix and match tools across Product Lines in an effort to utilize the best from both to improve NEAMS modeling and simulation technologies. This report details a new effort to provide this Product Line interoperability through the development of a new application called Warthog. This application couples the BISON Fuel Performance application from the Fuels Product Line and the PROTEUS Core Neutronics application from the Reactors Product Line in an effort to utilize the best from all parts of the NEAMS toolkit and improve overall solution fidelity of nuclear fuel simulations. To achieve this, Warthog leverages as much prior work from the NEAMS program as possible, and in doing so, enables interoperability between the disparate MOOSE and SHARP frameworks, and the libMesh and MOAB mesh data formats. This report describes this work in full. We begin with a detailed look at the individual NEAMS framework technologies used and developed in the various Product Lines, and the current status of their interoperability. We then introduce the Warthog application: its overall architecture and the ways it leverages the best existing tools from across the NEAMS toolkit to enable BISON-PROTEUS integration. Furthermore, we show how Warthog leverages a tool known as DataTransferKit to seamlessly enable the transfer for solution data between disparate frameworks and mesh formats. To end, we demonstrate tests for the direct software coupling of BISON and PROTEUS using Warthog, and discuss current impediments and solutions to the construction of physically realistic input models for this coupled BISON-PROTEUS system.« less

Near real-time forecasting for cholera decision making in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew

PubMed Central

Camacho, Anton; Grandesso, Francesco; Cohuet, Sandra; Lemaitre, Joseph C.; Rinaldo, Andrea

2018-01-01

Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign. A rainfall-driven, spatially-explicit meta-community model of cholera transmission was coupled to a data assimilation scheme for computing short-term projections of the epidemic in near real-time. The model was used to forecast cholera incidence for the months after the passage of the hurricane (October-December 2016) and to predict the impact of a planned oral cholera vaccination campaign. Our first projection, from October 29 to December 31, predicted the highest incidence in the departments of Grande Anse and Sud, accounting for about 45% of the total cases in Haiti. The projection included a second peak in cholera incidence in early December largely driven by heavy rainfall forecasts, confirming the urgency for rapid intervention. A second projection (from November 12 to December 31) used updated rainfall forecasts to estimate that 835 cases would be averted by vaccinations in Grande Anse (90% Prediction Interval [PI] 476-1284) and 995 in Sud (90% PI 508-2043). The experience gained by this modeling effort shows that state-of-the-art computational modeling and data-assimilation methods can produce informative near real-time projections of cholera incidence. Collaboration among modelers and field epidemiologists is indispensable to gain fast access to field data and to translate model results into operational recommendations for emergency management during an outbreak. Future efforts should thus draw together multi-disciplinary teams to ensure model outputs are appropriately based, interpreted and communicated. PMID:29768401

Near real-time forecasting for cholera decision making in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew.

PubMed

Pasetto, Damiano; Finger, Flavio; Camacho, Anton; Grandesso, Francesco; Cohuet, Sandra; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Azman, Andrew S; Luquero, Francisco J; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

2018-05-01

Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign. A rainfall-driven, spatially-explicit meta-community model of cholera transmission was coupled to a data assimilation scheme for computing short-term projections of the epidemic in near real-time. The model was used to forecast cholera incidence for the months after the passage of the hurricane (October-December 2016) and to predict the impact of a planned oral cholera vaccination campaign. Our first projection, from October 29 to December 31, predicted the highest incidence in the departments of Grande Anse and Sud, accounting for about 45% of the total cases in Haiti. The projection included a second peak in cholera incidence in early December largely driven by heavy rainfall forecasts, confirming the urgency for rapid intervention. A second projection (from November 12 to December 31) used updated rainfall forecasts to estimate that 835 cases would be averted by vaccinations in Grande Anse (90% Prediction Interval [PI] 476-1284) and 995 in Sud (90% PI 508-2043). The experience gained by this modeling effort shows that state-of-the-art computational modeling and data-assimilation methods can produce informative near real-time projections of cholera incidence. Collaboration among modelers and field epidemiologists is indispensable to gain fast access to field data and to translate model results into operational recommendations for emergency management during an outbreak. Future efforts should thus draw together multi-disciplinary teams to ensure model outputs are appropriately based, interpreted and communicated.

Environmental analysis of Lower Pueblo/Lower Los Alamos Canyon, Los Alamos, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferenbaugh, R.W.; Buhl, T.E.; Stoker, A.K.

1994-12-01

The radiological survey of the former radioactive waste treatment plant site (TA-45), Acid Canyon, Pueblo Canyon, and Los Alamos Canyon found residual contamination at the site itself and in the channel and banks of Acid, Pueblo, and lower Los Alamos Canyons all the way to the Rio Grande. The largest reservoir of residual radioactivity is in lower Pueblo Canyon, which is on DOE property. However, residual radioactivity does not exceed proposed cleanup criteria in either lower Pueblo or lower Los Alamos Canyons. The three alternatives proposed are (1) to take no action, (2) to construct a sediment trap in lowermore » Pueblo Canyon to prevent further transport of residual radioactivity onto San Ildefonso Indian Pueblo land, and (3) to clean the residual radioactivity from the canyon system. Alternative 2, to cleanup the canyon system, is rejected as a viable alternative. Thousands of truckloads of sediment would have to be removed and disposed of, and this effort is unwarranted by the low levels of contamination present. Residual radioactivity levels, under either present conditions or projected future conditions, will not result in significant radiation doses to persons exposed. Modeling efforts show that future transport activity will not result in any residual radioactivity concentrations higher than those already existing. Thus, although construction of a sediment trap in lower Pueblo Canyon is a viable alternative, this effort also is unwarranted, and the no-action alternative is the preferred alternative.« less

Preventing Australian bat lyssavirus: community knowledge and risk perception of bats in South East Queensland.

PubMed

Young, Megan K; El Saadi, Debra; McCall, Bradley J

2014-04-01

Ongoing potential exposure of members of the public to Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) in South East Queensland, Australia, prompted investigation of community knowledge, risk perception, and intention to handle bats to inform future prevention efforts. After pilot testing, a computer-assisted telephone survey of a representative sample of 700 adults without previous potential exposure to ABLV was undertaken in the defined geographic region. Twenty-four percent of eligible contacted individuals participated. Basic knowledge of bats and ABLV was generally high, with 65% of participants answering nine or more of 12 knowledge questions correctly. The perceived risk that bats pose to human health was also high, with 93% indicating some degree of risk. Although 88% of participants indicated they would handle bats in one or more of the scripted situations, overall intention to handle bats was low, with 59% indicating they would handle a bat in four or less of the 12 scenarios. Younger males with lower risk perception of bats most frequently indicated intention to handle bats in varying situations. Knowledge score was not associated with intention to handle bats on multivariate modeling. Future public health prevention efforts, both in Australia and overseas, should focus further on conveying the risk to humans and to bats when nontrained, nonvaccinated people attempt to handle bats rather than attempting to purely convey knowledge about bats and ABLV or rabies. Suitable alternative measures to handling should be included. Younger adult males are a particular target group for prevention efforts.

Monitoring osseointegration and developing intelligent systems (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvino, Liming W.

2017-05-01

Effective monitoring of structural and biological systems is an extremely important research area that enables technology development for future intelligent devices, platforms, and systems. This presentation provides an overview of research efforts funded by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) to establish structural health monitoring (SHM) methodologies in the human domain. Basic science efforts are needed to utilize SHM sensing, data analysis, modeling, and algorithms to obtain the relevant physiological and biological information for human-specific health and performance conditions. This overview of current research efforts is based on the Monitoring Osseointegrated Prosthesis (MOIP) program. MOIP develops implantable and intelligent prosthetics that are directly anchored to the bone of residual limbs. Through real-time monitoring, sensing, and responding to osseointegration of bones and implants as well as interface conditions and environment, our research program aims to obtain individualized actionable information for implant failure identification, load estimation, infection mitigation and treatment, as well as healing assessment. Looking ahead to achieve ultimate goals of SHM, we seek to expand our research areas to cover monitoring human, biological and engineered systems, as well as human-machine interfaces. Examples of such include 1) brainwave monitoring and neurological control, 2) detecting and evaluating brain injuries, 3) monitoring and maximizing human-technological object teaming, and 4) closed-loop setups in which actions can be triggered automatically based on sensors, actuators, and data signatures. Finally, some ongoing and future collaborations across different disciplines for the development of knowledge automation and intelligent systems will be discussed.

Attitudes in China about Crops and Foods Developed by Biotechnology

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaoxia; Cheng, Jie; Zhang, Qingwen; Shelton, Anthony M.

2015-01-01

Transgenic Bt cotton has been planted in China since 1997 and, in 2009, biosafety certificates for the commercial production of Bt rice and phytase corn were issued by the Chinese government. The public attitude in China toward agricultural biotechnology and genetically modified (GM) crops and foods has received considerable attention worldwide. We investigated the attitudes of consumers, Bt cotton farmers and scientists in China regarding GM crops and foods and the factors influencing their attitudes. Data were collected using interview surveys of consumer households, farmer households and scientists. A discrete choice approach was used to elicit the purchase intentions of the respondents. Two separate probit models were developed to examine the effect of various factors on the choices of the respondents. Bt cotton farmers had a very positive attitude because Bt cotton provided them with significant economic benefits. Chinese consumers from developed regions had a higher acceptance and willingness to pay for GM foods than consumers in other regions. The positive attitude toward GM foods by the scientific community will help to promote biotechnology in China in the future. Our survey emphasized that educational efforts made by government officials, the media and scientists can facilitate the acceptance of GM technology in China. Further educational efforts will be critical for influencing consumer attitudes and decisions of government agencies in the future. More effective educational efforts by government agencies and public media concerning the scientific facts and safety of GM foods would enhance the acceptance of GM crops in China. PMID:26418161

Attitudes in China about Crops and Foods Developed by Biotechnology.

PubMed

Han, Fei; Zhou, Dingyang; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cheng, Jie; Zhang, Qingwen; Shelton, Anthony M

2015-01-01

Transgenic Bt cotton has been planted in China since 1997 and, in 2009, biosafety certificates for the commercial production of Bt rice and phytase corn were issued by the Chinese government. The public attitude in China toward agricultural biotechnology and genetically modified (GM) crops and foods has received considerable attention worldwide. We investigated the attitudes of consumers, Bt cotton farmers and scientists in China regarding GM crops and foods and the factors influencing their attitudes. Data were collected using interview surveys of consumer households, farmer households and scientists. A discrete choice approach was used to elicit the purchase intentions of the respondents. Two separate probit models were developed to examine the effect of various factors on the choices of the respondents. Bt cotton farmers had a very positive attitude because Bt cotton provided them with significant economic benefits. Chinese consumers from developed regions had a higher acceptance and willingness to pay for GM foods than consumers in other regions. The positive attitude toward GM foods by the scientific community will help to promote biotechnology in China in the future. Our survey emphasized that educational efforts made by government officials, the media and scientists can facilitate the acceptance of GM technology in China. Further educational efforts will be critical for influencing consumer attitudes and decisions of government agencies in the future. More effective educational efforts by government agencies and public media concerning the scientific facts and safety of GM foods would enhance the acceptance of GM crops in China.

The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLean, B.J.; Rico, R.

1995-12-31

The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical {open_quotes}command and control{close_quotes} infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The {open_quotes}command and control{close_quotes} model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programsmore » have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions).« less

Optimizing water depth for wetland-dependent wildlife could increase wetland restoration success, water efficiency, and water security

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Conway, Courtney J.

2015-01-01

Securing water for wetland restoration efforts will be increasingly difficult as human populations demand more water and climate change alters the hydrologic cycle. Minimizing water use at a restoration site could help justify water use to competing users, thereby increasing future water security. Moreover, optimizing water depth for focal species will increase habitat quality and the probability that the restoration is successful. We developed and validated spatial habitat models to optimize water depth within wetland restoration projects along the lower Colorado River intended to benefit California black rails (Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus). We observed a 358% increase in the number of black rails detected in the year after manipulating water depth to maximize the amount of predicted black rail habitat in two wetlands. The number of black rail detections in our restoration sites was similar to those at our reference site. Implementing the optimal water depth in each wetland decreased water use while simultaneously increasing habitat suitability for the focal species. Our results also provide experimental confirmation of past descriptive accounts of black rail habitat preferences and provide explicit water depth recommendations for future wetland restoration efforts for this species of conservation concern; maintain surface water depths between saturated soil and 100 mm. Efforts to optimize water depth in restored wetlands around the world would likely increase the success of wetland restorations for the focal species while simultaneously minimizing and justifying water use.

Functional significance of men's testosterone reactivity to social stimuli.

PubMed

Zilioli, Samuele; Bird, Brian M

2017-10-01

Rapid testosterone fluctuations in response to social stimuli are observed across a wide range of species, and the highly conserved nature of these fluctuations suggests an adaptive function. This paper reviews the current literature on testosterone reactivity, primarily in human males, and illustrates how life-history theory provides an adequate theoretical framework to interpret findings. The review is structured around supporting evidence suggesting that situations implicated in mating effort either directly (e.g., interactions with a mate) or indirectly (e.g., intrasexual competition) are generally associated with a brief elevation of testosterone, while situations implicated in parenting effort (e.g., nurturant interactions with offspring) are generally associated with a decline in testosterone. Further, we discuss how these fluctuations in testosterone have been linked to future behaviors, and how situational, motivational, and physiological variables moderate the interplay between social stimuli, testosterone reactivity, and behavior. Supporting the notion that testosterone can play a causal role in modulating behavior in response to social stimuli, we also summarize recent single administration studies examining the effects of testosterone on physiology, neurobiology, and behavior. A conceptual model provides links between supported findings, and hypothesized pathways requiring future testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Newspaper archives + text mining = rich sources of historical geo-spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yzaguirre, A.; Smit, M.; Warren, R.

2016-04-01

Newspaper archives are rich sources of cultural, social, and historical information. These archives, even when digitized, are typically unstructured and organized by date rather than by subject or location, and require substantial manual effort to analyze. The effort of journalists to be accurate and precise means that there is often rich geo-spatial data embedded in the text, alongside text describing events that editors considered to be of sufficient importance to the region or the world to merit column inches. A regional newspaper can add over 100,000 articles to its database each year, and extracting information from this data for even a single country would pose a substantial Big Data challenge. In this paper, we describe a pilot study on the construction of a database of historical flood events (location(s), date, cause, magnitude) to be used in flood assessment projects, for example to calibrate models, estimate frequency, establish high water marks, or plan for future events in contexts ranging from urban planning to climate change adaptation. We then present a vision for extracting and using the rich geospatial data available in unstructured text archives, and suggest future avenues of research.