MECHANISTIC-BASED DISINFECTION AND DISINFECTION BYPRODUCT MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

We propose developing a mechanistic-based numerical model for chlorine decay and regulated DBP (THM and HAA) formation derived from (free) chlorination; the model framework will allow future modifications for other DBPs and chloramination. Predicted chlorine residual and DBP r...

Numerical Modeling of Propellant Boil-Off in a Cryogenic Storage Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, A. K.; Steadman, T. E.; Maroney, J. L.; Sass, J. P.; Fesmire, J. E.

2007-01-01

A numerical model to predict boil-off of stored propellant in large spherical cryogenic tanks has been developed. Accurate prediction of tank boil-off rates for different thermal insulation systems was the goal of this collaboration effort. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, integrating flow analysis and conjugate heat transfer for solving complex fluid system problems, was used to create the model. Calculation of tank boil-off rate requires simultaneous simulation of heat transfer processes among liquid propellant, vapor ullage space, and tank structure. The reference tank for the boil-off model was the 850,000 gallon liquid hydrogen tank at Launch Complex 39B (LC- 39B) at Kennedy Space Center, which is under study for future infrastructure improvements to support the Constellation program. The methodology employed in the numerical model was validated using a sub-scale model and tank. Experimental test data from a 1/15th scale version of the LC-39B tank using both liquid hydrogen and liquid nitrogen were used to anchor the analytical predictions of the sub-scale model. Favorable correlations between sub-scale model and experimental test data have provided confidence in full-scale tank boil-off predictions. These methods are now being used in the preliminary design for other cases including future launch vehicles

The atmospheric boundary layer — advances in knowledge and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Hess, G. D.; Physick, W. L.; Bougeault, P.

1996-02-01

We summarise major activities and advances in boundary-layer knowledge in the 25 years since 1970, with emphasis on the application of this knowledge to surface and boundary-layer parametrisation schemes in numerical models of the atmosphere. Progress in three areas is discussed: (i) the mesoscale modelling of selected phenomena; (ii) numerical weather prediction; and (iii) climate simulations. Future trends are identified, including the incorporation into models of advanced cloud schemes and interactive canopy schemes, and the nesting of high resolution boundary-layer schemes in global climate models.

Accuracy of Binary Black Hole Waveform Models for Advanced LIGO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prayush; Fong, Heather; Barkett, Kevin; Bhagwat, Swetha; Afshari, Nousha; Chu, Tony; Brown, Duncan; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Pfeiffer, Harald; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Simulating Extreme Spacetimes (SXS) Team

2016-03-01

Coalescing binaries of compact objects, such as black holes and neutron stars, are the primary targets for gravitational-wave (GW) detection with Advanced LIGO. Accurate modeling of the emitted GWs is required to extract information about the binary source. The most accurate solution to the general relativistic two-body problem is available in numerical relativity (NR), which is however limited in application due to computational cost. Current searches use semi-analytic models that are based in post-Newtonian (PN) theory and calibrated to NR. In this talk, I will present comparisons between contemporary models and high-accuracy numerical simulations performed using the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC), focusing at the questions: (i) How well do models capture binary's late-inspiral where they lack a-priori accurate information from PN or NR, and (ii) How accurately do they model binaries with parameters outside their range of calibration. These results guide the choice of templates for future GW searches, and motivate future modeling efforts.

Perspectives on the Future of CFD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwak, Dochan

2000-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of the future of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which in the past has pioneered the field of flow simulation. Over time CFD has progressed as computing power. Numerical methods have been advanced as CPU and memory capacity increases. Complex configurations are routinely computed now and direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) are used to study turbulence. As the computing resources changed to parallel and distributed platforms, computer science aspects such as scalability (algorithmic and implementation) and portability and transparent codings have advanced. Examples of potential future (or current) challenges include risk assessment, limitations of the heuristic model, and the development of CFD and information technology (IT) tools.

Status and future prospects of using numerical methods to study complex flows at High Reynolds numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maccormack, R. W.

1978-01-01

The calculation of flow fields past aircraft configuration at flight Reynolds numbers is considered. Progress in devising accurate and efficient numerical methods, in understanding and modeling the physics of turbulence, and in developing reliable and powerful computer hardware is discussed. Emphasis is placed on efficient solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations.

Simulation of Liquid Droplet in Air and on a Solid Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Launglucknavalai, Kevin

Although multiphase gas and liquid phenomena occurs widely in engineering problems, many aspects of multiphase interaction like within droplet dynamics are still not quantified. This study aims to qualify the Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) Interparticle Potential multiphase computational method in order to build a foundation for future multiphase research. This study consists of two overall sections. The first section in Chapter 2 focuses on understanding the LBM method and Interparticle Potential model. It outlines the LBM method and how it relates to macroscopic fluid dynamics. The standard form of LBM is obtained. The perturbation solution obtaining the Navier-Stokes equations from the LBM equation is presented. Finally, the Interparticle Potential model is incorporated into the numerical LBM method. The second section in Chapter 3 presents the verification and validation cases to confirm the behavior of the single-phase and multiphase LBM models. Experimental and analytical results are used briefly to compare with numerical results when possible using Poiseuille channel flow and flow over a cylinder. While presenting the numerical results, practical considerations like converting LBM scale variables to physical scale variables are considered. Multiphase results are verified using Laplaces law and artificial behaviors of the model are explored. In this study, a better understanding of the LBM method and Interparticle Potential model is gained. This allows the numerical method to be used for comparison with experimental results in the future and provides a better understanding of multiphase physics overall.

Modeling Thermal Noise from Crystaline Coatings for Gravitational-Wave Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demos, Nicholas; Lovelace, Geoffrey; LSC Collaboration

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of current and future ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are, in part, limited in sensitivity by Brownian and thermoelastic noise in each detector's mirror substrate and coating. Crystalline mirror coatings could potentially reduce thermal noise, but thermal noise is challenging to model analytically in the case of crystalline materials. Thermal noise can be modeled using the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, which relates thermal noise to an auxiliary elastic problem. In this poster, I will present results from a new code that numerically models thermal noise by numerically solving the auxiliary elastic problem for various types of crystalline mirror coatings. The code uses a finite element method with adaptive mesh refinement to model the auxiliary elastic problem which is then related to thermal noise. I will present preliminary results for a crystal coating on a fused silica substrate of varying sizes and elastic properties. This and future work will help develop the next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors.

On the Possibilities of Predicting Geomagnetic Secular Variation with Geodynamo Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuang, Wei-Jia; Tangborn, Andrew; Sabaka, Terrance

2004-01-01

We use our MoSST core dynamics model and geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) continued downward from surface observations to investigate possibilities of geomagnetic data assimilation, so that model results and current geomagnetic observations can be used to predict geomagnetic secular variation in future. As the first attempt, we apply data insertion technique to examine evolution of the model solution that is modified by geomagnetic input. Our study demonstrate that, with a single data insertion, large-scale poloidal magnetic field obtained from subsequent numerical simulation evolves similarly to the observed geomagnetic variation, regardless of the initial choice of the model solution (so long it is a well developed numerical solution). The model solution diverges on the time scales on the order of 60 years, similar to the time scales of the torsional oscillations in the Earth's core. Our numerical test shows that geomagnetic data assimilation is promising with our MoSST model.

Numerical simulation of coupled electrochemical and transport processes in battery systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liaw, B.Y.; Gu, W.B.; Wang, C.Y.

1997-12-31

Advanced numerical modeling to simulate dynamic battery performance characteristics for several types of advanced batteries is being conducted using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. The CFD techniques provide efficient algorithms to solve a large set of highly nonlinear partial differential equations that represent the complex battery behavior governed by coupled electrochemical reactions and transport processes. The authors have recently successfully applied such techniques to model advanced lead-acid, Ni-Cd and Ni-MH cells. In this paper, the authors briefly discuss how the governing equations were numerically implemented, show some preliminary modeling results, and compare them with other modeling or experimental data reportedmore » in the literature. The authors describe the advantages and implications of using the CFD techniques and their capabilities in future battery applications.« less

Current and Future Development of a Non-hydrostatic Unified Atmospheric Model (NUMA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-09

following capabilities: 1.  Highly scalable on current and future computer architectures ( exascale computing and beyond and GPUs) 2.  Flexibility... Exascale Computing •  10 of Top 500 are already in the Petascale range •  Should also keep our eyes on GPUs (e.g., Mare Nostrum) 2.  Numerical

Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

2018-02-01

One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

An Experimental and Numerical Comparison of the Rupture Locations of an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

PubMed Central

Doyle, Barry J.; Corbett, Timothy J.; Callanan, Anthony; Walsh, Michael T.; Vorp, David A.; McGloughlin, Timothy M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: To identify the rupture locations of idealized physical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) using an in-vitro setup and to compare the findings to those predicted numerically. Methods: Five idealized AAAs were manufactured using Sylgard 184 silicone rubber, which had been mechanically characterized from tensile tests, tear tests, and finite element analysis. The models were then inflated to the point of rupture and recorded using a high-speed camera. Numerical modeling attempted to confirm these rupture locations. Regional variations in wall thickness of the silicone models was also quantified and applied to numerical models. Results: Four of the 5 models tested ruptured at inflection points in the proximal and distal regions of the aneurysm sac and not at regions of maximum diameter. These findings agree with high stress regions computed numerically. Wall stress appears to be independent of wall thickness, with high stress occurring at regions of inflection regardless of wall thickness variations. Conclusion: According to these experimental and numerical findings, AAAs experience higher stresses at regions of inflection compared to regions of maximum diameter. Ruptures of the idealized silicone models occurred predominantly at the inflection points, as numerically predicted. Regions of inflection can be easily identified from basic 3-dimensional reconstruction; as ruptures appear to occur at inflection points, these findings may provide a useful insight into the clinical significance of inflection regions. This approach will be applied to patient-specific models in a future study. PMID:19642790

Effect of climate change on shoreline shifts at a straight and continuous coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajasree, B. R.; Deo, M. C.; Sheela Nair, L.

2016-12-01

The prediction of the rate of shoreline shifts as well as that of erosion and accretion over future at a given location is traditionally done on the basis of analysis of past wave data. However under the changing climate affected by global warming it is better done considering the projected wave conditions over the future. The same is demonstrated in this work with respect to a stretch of coastline at 'Udupi' along the west coast of India. The shoreline changes in the past are first determined with the help of historic satellite images. A numerical shoreline model is later run on the basis of wave simulations of past 35 years as well as future 35 years. The latter wave conditions are obtained from wind projections corresponding to a high resolution regional climate model run for a moderate pathway of global warming. Alternatively prediction of the changes over future 35 years is also made by using the soft computing tool of artificial neural network (ANN) trained with the help of past satellite images. The results indicate that the area under consideration presently undergoes considerable erosion and this process will accelerate in future. The volume of annual sediment transport will also substantially increase over the future. The alternative computations made with the help of an ANN confirmed the future rising trend of erosion, albeit at smaller rate than the numerically predicted one.

Survey of three-dimensional numerical estuarine models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; Smith, Peter E.

1989-01-01

This paper surveys the existing 3-D estuarine hydrodynamic and solute transport models by a review of the commonly used assumptions and approximations, and by an examination of the methods of solution. The model formulations, methods of solution, and known applications are surveyed and summarized in tables. In conclusion, the authors present their modeling philosophy and suggest future research needs.

Late-time behaviour of the tilted Bianchi type VIh models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hervik, S.; van den Hoogen, R. J.; Lim, W. C.; Coley, A. A.

2007-08-01

We study tilted perfect fluid cosmological models with a constant equation of state parameter in spatially homogeneous models of Bianchi type VIh using dynamical systems methods and numerical experimentation, with an emphasis on their future asymptotic evolution. We determine all of the equilibrium points of the type VIh state space (which correspond to exact self-similar solutions of the Einstein equations, some of which are new), and their stability is investigated. We find that there are vacuum plane-wave solutions that act as future attractors. In the parameter space, a 'loophole' is shown to exist in which there are no stable equilibrium points. We then show that a Hopf-bifurcation can occur resulting in a stable closed orbit (which we refer to as the Mussel attractor) corresponding to points both inside the loophole and points just outside the loophole; in the former case the closed curves act as late-time attractors while in the latter case these attracting curves will co-exist with attracting equilibrium points. In the special Bianchi type III case, centre manifold theory is required to determine the future attractors. Comprehensive numerical experiments are carried out to complement and confirm the analytical results presented. We note that the Bianchi type VIh case is of particular interest in that it contains many different subcases which exhibit many of the different possible future asymptotic behaviours of Bianchi cosmological models.

Comparison of eigenvectors for coupled seismo-electromagnetic layered-Earth modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grobbe, N.; Slob, E. C.; Thorbecke, J. W.

2016-07-01

We study the accuracy and numerical stability of three eigenvector sets for modelling the coupled poroelastic and electromagnetic layered-Earth response. We use a known eigenvector set, its flux-normalized version and a newly derived flux-normalized set. The new set is chosen such that the system is properly uncoupled when the coupling between the poroelastic and electromagnetic fields vanishes. We carry out two different numerical stability tests: the first test focuses on the internal system, eigenvector and eigenvalue consistency; the second test investigates the stability and preciseness of the flux-normalized systems by looking at identity relations. We find that the known set shows the largest deviation for both tests, whereas the new set performs best. In two additional numerical modelling experiments, these numerical inaccuracies are shown to generate numerical noise levels comparable to small signals, such as signals coming from the important interface conversion responses, especially when the coupling coefficient is small. When coupling vanishes completely, the known set does not produce proper results. The new set produces numerically stable and accurate results in all situations. We therefore strongly recommend to use this newly derived set for future layered-Earth seismo-electromagnetic modelling experiments.

3 Lectures: "Lagrangian Models", "Numerical Transport Schemes", and "Chemical and Transport Models"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A.

2005-01-01

The topics for the three lectures for the Canadian Summer School are Lagrangian Models, numerical transport schemes, and chemical and transport models. In the first lecture I will explain the basic components of the Lagrangian model (a trajectory code and a photochemical code), the difficulties in using such a model (initialization) and show some applications in interpretation of aircraft and satellite data. If time permits I will show some results concerning inverse modeling which is being used to evaluate sources of tropospheric pollutants. In the second lecture I will discuss one of the core components of any grid point model, the numerical transport scheme. I will explain the basics of shock capturing schemes, and performance criteria. I will include an example of the importance of horizontal resolution to polar processes. We have learned from NASA's global modeling initiative that horizontal resolution matters for predictions of the future evolution of the ozone hole. The numerical scheme will be evaluated using performance metrics based on satellite observations of long-lived tracers. The final lecture will discuss the evolution of chemical transport models over the last decade. Some of the problems with assimilated winds will be demonstrated, using satellite data to evaluate the simulations.

Role of sediment transport model to improve the tsunami numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugawara, D.; Yamashita, K.; Takahashi, T.; Imamura, F.

2015-12-01

Are we overlooking an important factor for improved numerical prediction of tsunamis in shallow sea to onshore? In this presentation, several case studies on numerical modeling of tsunami-induced sediment transport are reviewed, and the role of sediment transport models for tsunami inundation simulation is discussed. Large-scale sediment transport and resulting geomorphological change occurred in the coastal areas of Tohoku, Japan, due to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami. Datasets obtained after the tsunami, including geomorphological and sedimentological data as well as hydrodynamic records, allows us to validate the numerical model in detail. The numerical modeling of the sediment transport by the 2011 tsunami depicted the severest erosion of sandy beach, as well as characteristic spatial patterns of erosion and deposition on the seafloor, which have taken place in Hirota Bay, Sanriku Coast. Quantitative comparisons of observation and simulation of the geomorphological changes in Sanriku Coast and Sendai Bay showed that the numerical model can predict the volumes of erosion and deposition with a right order. In addition, comparison of the simulation with aerial video footages demonstrated the numerical model is capable of tracking the overall processes of tsunami sediment transport. Although tsunami-induced sediment erosion and deposition sometimes cause significant geomorphological change, and may enhance tsunami hydrodynamic impact to the coastal zones, most tsunami simulations do not include sediment transport modeling. A coupled modeling of tsunami hydrodynamics and sediment transport draws a different picture of tsunami hazard, comparing with simple hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami inundation. Since tsunami-induced erosion, deposition and geomorphological change sometimes extend more than several kilometers across the coastline, two-dimensional horizontal model are typically used for the computation of tsunami hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Limitations of the conventional model and future challenges are discussed regarding further improvement of numerical modeling of tsunami and sediment transport. Improved numerical modeling may provide useful information for assessing sediment-related damages and planning post-disaster recovery.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Modern Perspectives on Numerical Modeling of Cardiac Pacemaker Cell

PubMed Central

Maltsev, Victor A.; Yaniv, Yael; Maltsev, Anna V.; Stern, Michael D.; Lakatta, Edward G.

2015-01-01

Cardiac pacemaking is a complex phenomenon that is still not completely understood. Together with experimental studies, numerical modeling has been traditionally used to acquire mechanistic insights in this research area. This review summarizes the present state of numerical modeling of the cardiac pacemaker, including approaches to resolve present paradoxes and controversies. Specifically we discuss the requirement for realistic modeling to consider symmetrical importance of both intracellular and cell membrane processes (within a recent “coupled-clock” theory). Promising future developments of the complex pacemaker system models include the introduction of local calcium control, mitochondria function, and biochemical regulation of protein phosphorylation and cAMP production. Modern numerical and theoretical methods such as multi-parameter sensitivity analyses within extended populations of models and bifurcation analyses are also important for the definition of the most realistic parameters that describe a robust, yet simultaneously flexible operation of the coupled-clock pacemaker cell system. The systems approach to exploring cardiac pacemaker function will guide development of new therapies, such as biological pacemakers for treating insufficient cardiac pacemaker function that becomes especially prevalent with advancing age. PMID:24748434

A general numerical model for wave rotor analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel W.

1992-01-01

Wave rotors represent one of the promising technologies for achieving very high core temperatures and pressures in future gas turbine engines. Their operation depends upon unsteady gas dynamics and as such, their analysis is quite difficult. This report describes a numerical model which has been developed to perform such an analysis. Following a brief introduction, a summary of the wave rotor concept is given. The governing equations are then presented, along with a summary of the assumptions used to obtain them. Next, the numerical integration technique is described. This is an explicit finite volume technique based on the method of Roe. The discussion then focuses on the implementation of appropriate boundary conditions. Following this, some results are presented which first compare the numerical approximation to the governing differential equations and then compare the overall model to an actual wave rotor experiment. Finally, some concluding remarks are presented concerning the limitations of the simplifying assumptions and areas where the model may be improved.

On numerical model of one-dimensional time-dependent gas flows through bed of encapsulated phase change material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutsenko, N. A.; Fetsov, S. S.

2017-10-01

Mathematical model and numerical method are proposed for investigating the one-dimensional time-dependent gas flows through a packed bed of encapsulated Phase Change Material (PCM). The model is based on the assumption of interacting interpenetrating continua and includes equations of state, continuity, momentum conservation and energy for PCM and gas. The advantage of the method is that it does not require predicting the location of phase transition zone and can define it automatically as in a usual shock-capturing method. One of the applications of the developed numerical model is the simulation of novel Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage system (A-CAES) with Thermal Energy Storage subsystem (TES) based on using the encapsulated PCM in packed bed. Preliminary test calculations give hope that the method can be effectively applied in the future for modelling the charge and discharge processes in such TES with PCM.

Numerical model for the thermal behavior of thermocline storage tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehtiwesh, Ismael A. S.; Sousa, Antonio C. M.

2018-03-01

Energy storage is a critical factor in the advancement of solar thermal power systems for the sustained delivery of electricity. In addition, the incorporation of thermal energy storage into the operation of concentrated solar power systems (CSPs) offers the potential of delivering electricity without fossil-fuel backup even during peak demand, independent of weather conditions and daylight. Despite this potential, some areas of the design and performance of thermocline systems still require further attention for future incorporation in commercial CSPs, particularly, their operation and control. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a simple but efficient numerical model to allow the comprehensive analysis of thermocline storage systems aiming better understanding of their dynamic temperature response. The validation results, despite the simplifying assumptions of the numerical model, agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region. Three different cases are considered to test the versatility of the numerical model; for the particular type of a storage tank with top round impingement inlet, a simple analytical model was developed to take into consideration the increased turbulence level in the mixing region. The numerical predictions for the three cases are in general good agreement against the experimental results.

Hybrid Particle-Element Simulation of Impact on Composite Orbital Debris Shields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fahrenthold, Eric P.

2004-01-01

This report describes the development of new numerical methods and new constitutive models for the simulation of hypervelocity impact effects on spacecraft. The research has included parallel implementation of the numerical methods and material models developed under the project. Validation work has included both one dimensional simulations, for comparison with exact solutions, and three dimensional simulations of published hypervelocity impact experiments. The validated formulations have been applied to simulate impact effects in a velocity and kinetic energy regime outside the capabilities of current experimental methods. The research results presented here allow for the expanded use of numerical simulation, as a complement to experimental work, in future design of spacecraft for hypervelocity impact effects.

Tracing the source of numerical climate model uncertainties in precipitation simulations using a feature-oriented statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Jones, A. D.; Rhoades, A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation is a key component in hydrologic cycles, and changing precipitation regimes contribute to more intense and frequent drought and flood events around the world. Numerical climate modeling is a powerful tool to study climatology and to predict future changes. Despite the continuous improvement in numerical models, long-term precipitation prediction remains a challenge especially at regional scales. To improve numerical simulations of precipitation, it is important to find out where the uncertainty in precipitation simulations comes from. There are two types of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. One is related to uncertainty in the input data, such as model's boundary and initial conditions. These uncertainties would propagate to the final model outcomes even if the numerical model has exactly replicated the true world. But a numerical model cannot exactly replicate the true world. Therefore, the other type of model uncertainty is related the errors in the model physics, such as the parameterization of sub-grid scale processes, i.e., given precise input conditions, how much error could be generated by the in-precise model. Here, we build two statistical models based on a neural network algorithm to predict long-term variation of precipitation over California: one uses "true world" information derived from observations, and the other uses "modeled world" information using model inputs and outputs from the North America Coordinated Regional Downscaling Project (NA CORDEX). We derive multiple climate feature metrics as the predictors for the statistical model to represent the impact of global climate on local hydrology, and include topography as a predictor to represent the local control. We first compare the predictors between the true world and the modeled world to determine the errors contained in the input data. By perturbing the predictors in the statistical model, we estimate how much uncertainty in the model's final outcomes is accounted for by each predictor. By comparing the statistical model derived from true world information and modeled world information, we assess the errors lying in the physics of the numerical models. This work provides a unique insight to assess the performance of numerical climate models, and can be used to guide improvement of precipitation prediction.

The present state and future directions of PDF methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, S. B.

1992-01-01

The objectives of the workshop are presented in viewgraph format, as is this entire article. The objectives are to discuss the present status and the future direction of various levels of engineering turbulence modeling related to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) computations for propulsion; to assure that combustion is an essential part of propulsion; and to discuss Probability Density Function (PDF) methods for turbulent combustion. Essential to the integration of turbulent combustion models is the development of turbulent model, chemical kinetics, and numerical method. Some turbulent combustion models typically used in industry are the k-epsilon turbulent model, the equilibrium/mixing limited combustion, and the finite volume codes.

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, David Joao da Silva

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

Impact of a Cosmic Body into Earth's Ocean and the Generation of Large Tsunami Waves: Insight from Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wünnemann, K.; Collins, G. S.; Weiss, R.

2010-12-01

The strike of a cosmic body into a marine environment differs in several respects from impact on land. Oceans cover approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, implying not only that oceanic impact is a very likely scenario for future impacts but also that most impacts in Earth's history must have happened in marine environments. Therefore, the study of oceanic impact is imperative in two respects: (1) to quantify the hazard posed by future oceanic impacts, including the potential threat of large impact-generated tsunami-like waves, and (2) to reconstruct Earth's impact record by accounting for the large number of potentially undiscovered crater structures in the ocean crust. Reconstruction of the impact record is of crucial importance both for assessing the frequency of collision events in the past and for better predicting the probability of future impact. We summarize the advances in the study of oceanic impact over the last decades and focus in particular on how numerical models have improved our understanding of cratering in the oceanic environment and the generation of waves by impact. We focus on insight gleaned from numerical modeling studies into the deceleration of the projectile by the water, cratering of the ocean floor, the late stage modification of the crater due to gravitational collapse, and water resurge. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and propagation of large tsunami-like waves as a result of a strike of a cosmic body in marine environments.

A Modular Simulation Framework for Assessing Swarm Search Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

SUBTITLE A MODULAR SIMULATION FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING SWARM SEARCH MODELS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Blake M. Wanier 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...Numerical studies demonstrate the ability to leverage the developed simulation and analysis framework to investigate three canonical swarm search models ...as benchmarks for future exploration of more sophisticated swarm search scenarios. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Swarm Search, Search Theory, Modeling Framework

A comprehensive comparison of turbulence models in the far wake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cimbala, John M.

1993-01-01

In the present study, the far wake was examined numerically using an implicit, upwind, finite-volume, compressible Navier-Stokes code. The numerical grid started at 500 equivalent circular cylinder diameters in the wave, and extended to 4000 equivalent diameters. By concentrating only on the far wake, the numerical difficulties and fine mesh requirements near the wake-generating body were eliminated. At the time of this writing, results for the K-epsilon and K-omega turbulence models at low Mach number have been completed and show excellent agreement with previous incompressible results and far-wake similarity solutions. The code is presently being used to compare the performance of various other turbulence models, including Reynolds stress models and the new anisotropic two-equation turbulence models being developed at NASA Langley. By increasing our physical understanding of the deficiencies and limits of these models, it is hoped that improvements to the universality of the models can be made. Future plans include examination of two-dimensional momentumless wakes as well.

Numerical simulation of magmatic hydrothermal systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, S.E.; Geiger, S.; Hurwitz, S.; Driesner, T.

2010-01-01

The dynamic behavior of magmatic hydrothermal systems entails coupled and nonlinear multiphase flow, heat and solute transport, and deformation in highly heterogeneous media. Thus, quantitative analysis of these systems depends mainly on numerical solution of coupled partial differential equations and complementary equations of state (EOS). The past 2 decades have seen steady growth of computational power and the development of numerical models that have eliminated or minimized the need for various simplifying assumptions. Considerable heuristic insight has been gained from process-oriented numerical modeling. Recent modeling efforts employing relatively complete EOS and accurate transport calculations have revealed dynamic behavior that was damped by linearized, less accurate models, including fluid property control of hydrothermal plume temperatures and three-dimensional geometries. Other recent modeling results have further elucidated the controlling role of permeability structure and revealed the potential for significant hydrothermally driven deformation. Key areas for future reSearch include incorporation of accurate EOS for the complete H2O-NaCl-CO2 system, more realistic treatment of material heterogeneity in space and time, realistic description of large-scale relative permeability behavior, and intercode benchmarking comparisons. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Monitoring Million Trees LA: Tree performance during the early years and future benefits

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson

2014-01-01

Million Trees LA (MTLA) is one of several large-scale mayoral tree planting initiatives striving to create more livable cities through urban forestry. This study combined field sampling of tree survival and growth with numerical modeling of future benefits to assess performance of MTLA plantings. From 2006 to 2010 MTLA planted a diverse mix of 91,786 trees....

Numerical orbit generators of artificial earth satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kugar, H. K.; Dasilva, W. C. C.

1984-04-01

A numerical orbit integrator containing updatings and improvements relative to the previous ones that are being utilized by the Departmento de Mecanica Espacial e Controle (DMC), of INPE, besides incorporating newer modellings resulting from the skill acquired along the time is presented. Flexibility and modularity were taken into account in order to allow future extensions and modifications. Characteristics of numerical accuracy, processing quickness, memory saving as well as utilization aspects were also considered. User's handbook, whole program listing and qualitative analysis of accuracy, processing time and orbit perturbation effects were included as well.

Multiscale Modeling, Simulation and Visualization and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

2002-01-01

This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Multiscale Modeling, Simulation and Visualization and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 5 - 6, 2002. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in hierarchical approach to material modeling from continuum to atomistics; applications of multiscale modeling to advanced and improved material synthesis; defects, dislocations, and material deformation; fracture and friction; thin-film growth; characterization at nano and micro scales; and, verification and validation of numerical simulations, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

Development of a severe local storm prediction system: A 60-day test of a mesoscale primitive equation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paine, D. A.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

1979-01-01

The progress and problems associated with the dynamical forecast system which was developed to predict severe storms are examined. The meteorological problem of severe convective storm forecasting is reviewed. The cascade hypothesis which forms the theoretical core of the nested grid dynamical numerical modelling system is described. The dynamical and numerical structure of the model used during the 1978 test period is presented and a preliminary description of a proposed multigrid system for future experiments and tests is provided. Six cases from the spring of 1978 are discussed to illustrate the model's performance and its problems. Potential solutions to the problems are examined.

A numerical study of the acid rain in northern Taiwan in winter season

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ching-Sen; Deng, Zen-Sing

1996-12-31

Two-thirds of the land mass of Taiwan island is covered by mountains. In winter precipitation could occur in northern Taiwan when the prevailing wind was from northeastern direction. In northern Taiwan the acid rain (pH value less than 5.0) in winter time could contribute about 30 rain in the whole year. A three-dimensional numerical model with terrain following coordinated system was used to simulate the precipitation system and the characteristics of acid rain. A smooth terrain was assumed in the model. A mean sounding was used to initialize the numerical model when acid rain occurred in northern Taiwan during wintermore » time from 1991 to 1993. Investigations of the effect of pollutions from abroad on the acid rain in northern Taiwan in winter are considered for the future.« less

On finite element implementation and computational techniques for constitutive modeling of high temperature composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saleeb, A. F.; Chang, T. Y. P.; Wilt, T.; Iskovitz, I.

1989-01-01

The research work performed during the past year on finite element implementation and computational techniques pertaining to high temperature composites is outlined. In the present research, two main issues are addressed: efficient geometric modeling of composite structures and expedient numerical integration techniques dealing with constitutive rate equations. In the first issue, mixed finite elements for modeling laminated plates and shells were examined in terms of numerical accuracy, locking property and computational efficiency. Element applications include (currently available) linearly elastic analysis and future extension to material nonlinearity for damage predictions and large deformations. On the material level, various integration methods to integrate nonlinear constitutive rate equations for finite element implementation were studied. These include explicit, implicit and automatic subincrementing schemes. In all cases, examples are included to illustrate the numerical characteristics of various methods that were considered.

Analogue and numerical modelling in Volcanology: Development, evolution and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanagh, Janine; Annen, Catherine

2015-04-01

Since the inception of volcanology as a science, analogue modelling has been an important methodology to study the formation and evolution of the volcanic system. With the development of computing capacities numerical modelling has become a widely used tool to explore magmatic process quantitatively and try to predict eruptive behaviour. Processes of interest include the development and establishment of the volcanic plumbing system, the propagation of magma to the surface to feed eruptions, the construction of a volcanic edifice and the dynamics of eruptive processes. An important ultimate aim is to characterise and measure the experimental volcanic and magmatic phenomena, to inform and improve eruption forecasting for hazard assessments. In nature, volcanic activity is often unpredictable and in an environment that is highly changeable and forbidding. Volcanic or magmatic activity cannot be repeated at will and has many (often unconstrained) variables. The processes of interest are frequently hidden from view, for example occurring beneath the Earth's surface or within a pyroclastic flow or plume. The challenges of working in volcanic terrains and gathering 'real' volcano data mean that analogue and numerical models have gained significant importance as a method to study the geometrics, kinematics, and dynamics of volcano growth and eruption. A huge variety of analogue materials have been used in volcanic modelling, often bringing out the more creative side of the scientific mind. As with all models, the choice of appropriate materials and boundary conditions are critical for assessing the relevance and usefulness of the experimental results. Numerical simulation has proved a useful tool to test the physical plausibility of conceptual models and presents the advantage of being applicable at different scales. It is limited however in its predictive power by the number of free parameters needed to describe geological systems. In this special symposium we will attempt to review the use and significance of analogue and numerical modelling in volcanological research over the past century to the present day. We introduce some of the new techniques being developed through a multidisciplinary approach, and offer some perspectives on how these might be used to help shape the direction of future research in volcanology.

Assessing Australian Rainfall Projections in Two Model Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taschetto, A.; Haarsma, R. D.; Sen Gupta, A.

2016-02-01

Australian climate is projected to change with increases in greenhouse gases. The IPCC reports an increase in extreme daily rainfall across the country. At the same time, mean rainfall over southeast Australia is projected to reduce during austral winter, but to increase during austral summer, mainly associated with changes in the surrounding oceans. Climate models agree better on the future reduction of average rainfall over the southern regions of Australia compared to the increase in extreme rainfall events. One of the reasons for this disagreement may be related to climate model limitations in simulating the observed mechanisms associated with the mid-latitude weather systems, in particular due to coarse model resolutions. In this study we investigate how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) affect Australian mean and extreme rainfall under global warming, using a suite of numerical experiments at two model resolutions: about 126km (T159) and 25km (T799). The numerical experiments are performed with the earth system model EC-EARTH. Two 6-member ensembles are produced for the present day conditions and a future scenario. The present day ensemble is forced with the observed daily SST from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center from 2002 to 2006. The future scenario simulation is integrated from 2094 to 2098 using the present day SST field added onto the future SST change created from a 17-member ensemble based on the RCP4.5 scenario. Preliminary results show an increase in extreme rainfall events over Tasmania associated with enhanced convection driven by the Tasman Sea warming. We will further discuss how the projected changes in SST will impact the southern mid-latitude weather systems that ultimately affect Australian rainfall.

Modeling tidal hydrodynamics of San Diego Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, P.-F.; Cheng, R.T.; Richter, K.; Gross, E.S.; Sutton, D.; Gartner, J.W.

1998-01-01

In 1983, current data were collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration using mechanical current meters. During 1992 through 1996, acoustic Doppler current profilers as well as mechanical current meters and tide gauges were used. These measurements not only document tides and tidal currents in San Diego Bay, but also provide independent data sets for model calibration and verification. A high resolution (100-m grid), depth-averaged, numerical hydrodynamic model has been implemented for San Diego Bay to describe essential tidal hydrodynamic processes in the bay. The model is calibrated using the 1983 data set and verified using the more recent 1992-1996 data. Discrepancies between model predictions and field data in beth model calibration and verification are on the order of the magnitude of uncertainties in the field data. The calibrated and verified numerical model has been used to quantify residence time and dilution and flushing of contaminant effluent into San Diego Bay. Furthermore, the numerical model has become an important research tool in ongoing hydrodynamic and water quality studies and in guiding future field data collection programs.

Numerical and Experimental Study on Hydrodynamic Performance of A Novel Semi-Submersible Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Song; Tao, Long-bin; Kou, Yu-feng; Lu, Chao; Sun, Jiang-long

2018-04-01

Multiple Column Platform (MCP) semi-submersible is a newly proposed concept, which differs from the conventional semi-submersibles, featuring centre column and middle pontoon. It is paramount to ensure its structural reliability and safe operation at sea, and a rigorous investigation is conducted to examine the hydrodynamic and structural performance for the novel structure concept. In this paper, the numerical and experimental studies on the hydrodynamic performance of MCP are performed. Numerical simulations are conducted in both the frequency and time domains based on 3D potential theory. The numerical models are validated by experimental measurements obtained from extensive sets of model tests under both regular wave and irregular wave conditions. Moreover, a comparative study on MCP and two conventional semi-submersibles are carried out using numerical simulation. Specifically, the hydrodynamic characteristics, including hydrodynamic coefficients, natural periods and motion response amplitude operators (RAOs), mooring line tension are fully examined. The present study proves the feasibility of the novel MCP and demonstrates the potential possibility of optimization in the future study.

Three-dimensional representation of the human cochlea using micro-computed tomography data: presenting an anatomical model for further numerical calculations.

PubMed

Braun, Katharina; Böhnke, Frank; Stark, Thomas

2012-06-01

We present a complete geometric model of the human cochlea, including the segmentation and reconstruction of the fluid-filled chambers scala tympani and scala vestibuli, the lamina spiralis ossea and the vibrating structure (cochlear partition). Future fluid-structure coupled simulations require a reliable geometric model of the cochlea. The aim of this study was to present an anatomical model of the human cochlea, which can be used for further numerical calculations. Using high resolution micro-computed tomography (µCT), we obtained images of a cut human temporal bone with a spatial resolution of 5.9 µm. Images were manually segmented to obtain the three-dimensional reconstruction of the cochlea. Due to the high resolution of the µCT data, a detailed examination of the geometry of the twisted cochlear partition near the oval and the round window as well as the precise illustration of the helicotrema was possible. After reconstruction of the lamina spiralis ossea, the cochlear partition and the curved geometry of the scala vestibuli and the scala tympani were presented. The obtained data sets were exported as standard lithography (stl) files. These files represented a complete framework for future numerical simulations of mechanical (acoustic) wave propagation on the cochlear partition in the form of mathematical mechanical cochlea models. Additional quantitative information concerning heights, lengths and volumes of the scalae was found and compared with previous results.

Integrating wetland connectivity into models for watershed-scale analyses: Current and future approaches

EPA Science Inventory

Geographically isolated wetlands (GIW), or wetlands embedded in uplands, exist along a spatial and temporal hydrologic connectivity continuum to downstream waters. Via these connections and disconnections, GIWs provide numerous hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological functio...

Risk to Water Security on Small Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holding, S. T.; Allen, D. M.

2013-12-01

The majority of fresh water available on small islands is shallow groundwater that forms a freshwater lens. Freshwater lenses are generally limited in extent and as such are vulnerable to many stressors that impact water security. These include stressors related to climate change, such as sea level rise, as well as those related to human impacts, such as contamination. Traditionally, water security assessments have focussed on indicators that provide a snapshot of the current condition. However, recent work suggests that in order to effectively manage the water system, it is also important to consider uncertain future impacts to the system by evaluating how different stressors might impact water security. In this study, a framework for assessing risk to water security was developed and tested on Andros Island in The Bahamas. The assessment comprises two main components that characterise the water system: numerical modelling studies and a hazard survey. A baseline numerical model of the freshwater lens throughout Andros Island was developed to simulate the morphology of the freshwater lens and estimate the freshwater resources currently available. The model was prepared using SEAWAT, a density-dependent flow and solute transport code. Various stressors were simulated in the model to evaluate the response of the freshwater lens to predicted future shifts in climate patterns, sea level rise, and changes in water use. A hazard survey was also conducted on the island to collect information related to the storage of contaminants, sanitation infrastructure, waste disposal practices and groundwater abstraction rates. The results of the survey form a geo-spatial database of the location and associated hazards to the freshwater lens. The resulting risk framework provides a ranking of overall risk to water security based on information from the numerical modelling and hazard survey. The risk framework is implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provides a map of the risk to water security throughout Andros Island. It evaluates risk to water security for current and future scenarios and will enable water resource managers to effectively adapt to future impacts on water security.

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 1: Summary of findings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kesel, P. G.

1977-01-01

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The discretionary model procedures were examined so that the computational viability of SEASAT data might be enhanced during the conduct of (future) sensitivity tests. The analysis effort covers: (1) examining the procedures for allowing data to influence the analysis; (2) examining the effects of varying the weights in the analysis procedure; (3) testing and implementing procedures for solving the minimization equation in an optimal way; (4) describing the impact of grid resolution on analysis; and (5) devising and implementing numerous practical solutions to analysis problems, generally.

Boundary conditions for a one-sided numerical model of evaporative instabilities in sessile drops of ethanol on heated substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Sergey; Carle, Florian; Medale, Marc; Brutin, David

2017-12-01

The work is focused on obtaining boundary conditions for a one-sided numerical model of thermoconvective instabilities in evaporating pinned sessile droplets of ethanol on heated substrates. In the one-sided model, appropriate boundary conditions for heat and mass transfer equations are required at the droplet surface. Such boundary conditions are obtained in the present work based on a derived semiempirical theoretical formula for the total droplet's evaporation rate, and on a two-parametric nonisothermal approximation of the local evaporation flux. The main purpose of these boundary conditions is to be applied in future three-dimensional (3D) one-sided numerical models in order to save a lot of computational time and resources by solving equations only in the droplet domain. Two parameters, needed for the nonisothermal approximation of the local evaporation flux, are obtained by fitting computational results of a 2D two-sided numerical model. Such model is validated here against parabolic flight experiments and the theoretical value of the total evaporation rate. This study combines theoretical, experimental, and computational approaches in convective evaporation of sessile droplets. The influence of the gravity level on evaporation rate and contributions of different mechanisms of vapor transport (diffusion, Stefan flow, natural convection) are shown. The qualitative difference (in terms of developing thermoconvective instabilities) between steady-state and unsteady numerical approaches is demonstrated.

Comments on “A Unified Representation of Deep Moist Convection in Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere. Part I”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Guang; Fan, Jiwen; Xu, Kuan-Man

2015-06-01

Arakawa and Wu (2013, hereafter referred to as AW13) recently developed a formal approach to a unified parameterization of atmospheric convection for high-resolution numerical models. The work is based on ideas formulated by Arakawa et al. (2011). It lays the foundation for a new parameterization pathway in the era of high-resolution numerical modeling of the atmosphere. The key parameter in this approach is convective cloud fraction. In conventional parameterization, it is assumed that <<1. This assumption is no longer valid when horizontal resolution of numerical models approaches a few to a few tens kilometers, since in such situations convective cloudmore » fraction can be comparable to unity. Therefore, they argue that the conventional approach to parameterizing convective transport must include a factor 1 - in order to unify the parameterization for the full range of model resolutions so that it is scale-aware and valid for large convective cloud fractions. While AW13’s approach provides important guidance for future convective parameterization development, in this note we intend to show that the conventional approach already has this scale awareness factor 1 - built in, although not recognized for the last forty years. Therefore, it should work well even in situations of large convective cloud fractions in high-resolution numerical models.« less

The numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models: State of the art and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingbeil, Knut; Lemarié, Florian; Debreu, Laurent; Burchard, Hans

2018-05-01

The state of the art of the numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is reviewed here. First, some fundamental differences in the hydrodynamics of the coastal ocean, such as the large surface elevation variation compared to the mean water depth, are contrasted against large scale ocean dynamics. Then the hydrodynamic equations as they are used in coastal ocean models as well as in large scale ocean models are presented, including parameterisations for turbulent transports. As steps towards discretisation, coordinate transformations and spatial discretisations based on a finite-volume approach are discussed with focus on the specific requirements for coastal ocean models. As in large scale ocean models, splitting of internal and external modes is essential also for coastal ocean models, but specific care is needed when drying & flooding of intertidal flats is included. As one obvious characteristic of coastal ocean models, open boundaries occur and need to be treated in a way that correct model forcing from outside is transmitted to the model domain without reflecting waves from the inside. Here, also new developments in two-way nesting are presented. Single processes such as internal inertia-gravity waves, advection and turbulence closure models are discussed with focus on the coastal scales. Some overview on existing hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is given, including their extensions towards non-hydrostatic models. Finally, an outlook on future perspectives is made.

Numerical Study of Solar Storms from the Sun to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xueshang; Jiang, Chaowei; Zhou, Yufen

2017-04-01

As solar storms are sweeping the Earth, adverse changes occur in geospace environment. How human can mitigate and avoid destructive damages caused by solar storms becomes an important frontier issue that we must face in the high-tech times. It is of both scientific significance to understand the dynamic process during solar storm's propagation in interplanetary space and realistic value to conduct physics-based numerical researches on the three-dimensional process of solar storms in interplanetary space with the aid of powerful computing capacity to predict the arrival times, intensities, and probable geoeffectiveness of solar storms at the Earth. So far, numerical studies based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have gone through the transition from the initial qualitative principle researches to systematic quantitative studies on concrete events and numerical predictions. Numerical modeling community has a common goal to develop an end-to-end physics-based modeling system for forecasting the Sun-Earth relationship. It is hoped that the transition of these models to operational use depends on the availability of computational resources at reasonable cost and that the models' prediction capabilities may be improved by incorporating the observational findings and constraints into physics-based models, combining the observations, empirical models and MHD simulations in organic ways. In this talk, we briefly focus on our recent progress in using solar observations to produce realistic magnetic configurations of CMEs as they leave the Sun, and coupling data-driven simulations of CMEs to heliospheric simulations that then propagate the CME configuration to 1AU, and outlook the important numerical issues and their possible solutions in numerical space weather modeling from the Sun to Earth for future research.

Long range forecasts of the Northern Hemisphere anomalies with antecedent sea surface temperature patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kung, Ernest C.

1994-01-01

The contract research has been conducted in the following three major areas: analysis of numerical simulations and parallel observations of atmospheric blocking, diagnosis of the lower boundary heating and the response of the atmospheric circulation, and comprehensive assessment of long-range forecasting with numerical and regression methods. The essential scientific and developmental purpose of this contract research is to extend our capability of numerical weather forecasting by the comprehensive general circulation model. The systematic work as listed above is thus geared to developing a technological basis for future NASA long-range forecasting.

The two-stroke poppet valve engine. Part 2: Numerical investigations of intake and exhaust flow behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamili Zahidi, M.; Razali Hanipah, M.

2017-10-01

A two-stroke poppet valve engine is developed to overcome the common problems in conventional two-stroke engine designs. However, replacing piston control port with poppet valve will resulted different flow behaviour. This paper presents the model and simulation result of three-dimensional (3D) port flow investigation of a two-stroke poppet valve engine. The objective of the investigation is to conduct a numerical investigation on port flow performance of two-stroke poppet valve engine and compare the results obtained from the experimental investigation. The model is to be used for the future numerical study of the engine. The volume flow rate results have been compared with the results obtained experimentally as presented in first part of this paper. The model has shown good agreement in terms of the flow rate at initial and final valve lifts but reduced by about 50% during half-lift region.

Numerical Modeling of Active Flow Control in a Boundary Layer Ingesting Offset Inlet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allan, Brian G.; Owens, Lewis R.; Berrier, Bobby L.

2004-01-01

This investigation evaluates the numerical prediction of flow distortion and pressure recovery for a boundary layer ingesting offset inlet with active flow control devices. The numerical simulations are computed using a Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes code developed at NASA. The numerical results are validated by comparison to experimental wind tunnel tests conducted at NASA Langley Research Center at both low and high Mach numbers. Baseline comparisons showed good agreement between numerical and experimental results. Numerical simulations for the inlet with passive and active flow control also showed good agreement at low Mach numbers where experimental data has already been acquired. Numerical simulations of the inlet at high Mach numbers with flow control jets showed an improvement of the flow distortion. Studies on the location of the jet actuators, for the high Mach number case, were conducted to provide guidance for the design of a future experimental wind tunnel test.

User's guide to the Parallel Processing Extension of the Prognosis Model

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Albert R. Stage

1991-01-01

The Parallel Processing Extension (PPE) of the Prognosis Model was designed to analyze responses of numerous stands to coordinated management and pest impacts that operate at the landscape level of forests. Vegetation-related resource supply analysis can be readily performed for a thousand or more sample stands for projections 400 years into the future. Capabilities...

A numerical simulation of the full two-dimensional electrothermal de-icer pad. Ph.D. Thesis Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masiulaniec, Konstanty C.

1988-01-01

The ability to predict the time-temperature history of electrothermal de-icer pads is important in the subsequent design of improved and more efficient versions. These de-icer pads are installed near the surface of aircraft components, for the specific purpose of removing accreted ice. The proposed numerical model can incorporate the full 2-D geometry through a section of a region (i.e., section of an airfoil), that current 1-D numerical codes are unable to do. Thus, the effects of irregular layers, curvature, etc., can now be accounted for in the thermal transients. Each layer in the actual geometry is mapped via a body-fitted coordinate transformation into uniform, rectangular computational grids. The relevant heat transfer equations are transformed and discretized. To model the phase change that might occur in any accreted ice, in an enthalpy formulation the phase change equations are likewise transformed and discretized. The code developed was tested against numerous classical numerical solutions, as well as against experimental de-icing data on a UH1H rotor blade obtained from the NASA Lewis Research Center. The excellent comparisons obtained show that this code can be a useful tool in predicting the performance of current de-icer models, as well as in the designing of future models.

The Effect of Asymmetric Mechanical and Thermal Loading on Membrane Wrinkling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blandino, Joseph R.; Johnston, John D.; Miles, Jonathan J.; Dharamsi, Urmil K.; Brodeur, Stephen J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Large, tensioned membranes are being considered for future gossamer spacecraft systems. Examples include sunshields, solar sails, and membrane optics. In many. cases a relatively flat membrane with minimal wrinkling is desired. Developing methods to predict and measure membrane wrinkling is important to the future development of gossamer spacecraft. Numerical and experimental data are presented for a 0.5 m square, tensioned membrane. The membrane is subjected to symmetric and asymmetric mechanical loading. Data are also presented for a symmetrically loaded membrane subjected to spot heating in the center. The numerical model shows good agreement with the experiment for wrinkle angle data. There is. also reasonable agreement for the wrinkled area for both isothermal and elevated temperature tests.

Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

2017-12-01

In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with respect to the calibrated model). Finally, such a study can allow decision makers to implement best informed management practices, especially in complex karst systems, to overcome impacts of climate change on water resources.

Stochastic and deterministic multiscale models for systems biology: an auxin-transport case study.

PubMed

Twycross, Jamie; Band, Leah R; Bennett, Malcolm J; King, John R; Krasnogor, Natalio

2010-03-26

Stochastic and asymptotic methods are powerful tools in developing multiscale systems biology models; however, little has been done in this context to compare the efficacy of these methods. The majority of current systems biology modelling research, including that of auxin transport, uses numerical simulations to study the behaviour of large systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations, with little consideration of alternative modelling frameworks. In this case study, we solve an auxin-transport model using analytical methods, deterministic numerical simulations and stochastic numerical simulations. Although the three approaches in general predict the same behaviour, the approaches provide different information that we use to gain distinct insights into the modelled biological system. We show in particular that the analytical approach readily provides straightforward mathematical expressions for the concentrations and transport speeds, while the stochastic simulations naturally provide information on the variability of the system. Our study provides a constructive comparison which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each of the considered modelling approaches. This will prove helpful to researchers when weighing up which modelling approach to select. In addition, the paper goes some way to bridging the gap between these approaches, which in the future we hope will lead to integrative hybrid models.

The present state and future direction of second order closure models for compressible flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, Thomas B.; Sarkar, Sutanu; Speziale, Charles G.

1992-01-01

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include: (1) Reynolds stress closure models; (2) Favre averages and governing equations; (3) the model for the deviatoric part of the pressure-strain rate correlation; (4) the SSG pressure-strain correlation model; (5) a compressible turbulent dissipation rate model; (6) variable viscosity effects; (7) near-wall stiffness problems; (8) models of the Reynolds mass and heat flux; and (9) a numerical solution of the compressible turbulent transport equation.

A stochastic regulator for integrated communication and control systems. I - Formulation of control law. II - Numerical analysis and simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Luen-Woei; Ray, Asok

1991-01-01

A state feedback control law for integrated communication and control systems (ICCS) is formulated by using the dynamic programming and optimality principle on a finite-time horizon. The control law is derived on the basis of a stochastic model of the plant which is augmented in state space to allow for the effects of randomly varying delays in the feedback loop. A numerical procedure for synthesizing the control parameters is then presented, and the performance of the control law is evaluated by simulating the flight dynamics model of an advanced aircraft. Finally, recommendations for future work are made.

Shuttle optical environment; Proceedings of the Meeting, Washington, DC, April 23, 24, 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, E. R. (Editor); Fazio, G. G.

1982-01-01

The numerical modeling, instrumentation, identification, and procedures to characterize and/or control contamination hazards to equipment used on the Shuttle are discussed. On-orbit pollutants include molecular offgassing and outgassing, particulate material, and substances from thrusters, vents, and leaks. Clean-rooms are being implemented in ground assembly and integration facilities. Attention is given to an upgraded SPACE program for numerically modeling contamination pathways and appropriate procedures to protect instrumentation from film and particulate deposition. Finally, attention is given to military cryogenic IR detectors being employed to quantify the Shuttle thermal and solid pollutant environment on-orbit as a prelude to future operational IR sensors.

Perspectives On Dilution Jet Mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdeman, J. D.; Srinivasan, R.

1990-01-01

NASA recently completed program of measurements and modeling of mixing of transverse jets with ducted crossflow, motivated by need to design or tailor temperature pattern at combustor exit in gas turbine engines. Objectives of program to identify dominant physical mechanisms governing mixing, extend empirical models to provide near-term predictive capability, and compare numerical code calculations with data to guide future analysis improvement efforts.

Modeling of the Orbital Debris Environment Risks in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark

2016-01-01

Despite of the tireless work by space surveillance assets, much of the Earth debris environment is not easily measured or tracked. For every object that is in an orbit we can track, there are hundreds of small debris that are too small to be tracked but still large enough to damage spacecraft. In addition, even if we knew today's environment with perfect knowledge, the debris environment is dynamic and would change tomorrow. Therefore, orbital debris scientists rely on numerical modeling to understand the nature of the debris environment and its risk to space operations throughout Earth orbit and into the future. This talk will summarize the ways in which modeling complements measurements to help give us a better picture of what is occurring in Earth orbit, and helps us to better conduct current and future space operations.

A numerical study of linear and nonlinear kinematic models in fish swimming with the DSD/SST method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fang-Bao

2015-03-01

Flow over two fish (modeled by two flexible plates) in tandem arrangement is investigated by solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations numerically with the DSD/SST method to understand the differences between the geometrically linear and nonlinear models. In the simulation, the motions of the plates are reconstructed from a vertically flowing soap film tunnel experiment with linear and nonlinear kinematic models. Based on the simulations, the drag, lift, power consumption, vorticity and pressure fields are discussed in detail. It is found that the linear and nonlinear models are able to reasonably predict the forces and power consumption of a single plate in flow. Moreover, if multiple plates are considered, these two models yield totally different results, which implies that the nonlinear model should be used. The results presented in this work provide a guideline for future studies in fish swimming.

Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

2018-04-01

A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

The future of EUV lithography: enabling Moore's Law in the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirati, Alberto; van Schoot, Jan; Troost, Kars; van Ballegoij, Rob; Krabbendam, Peter; Stoeldraijer, Judon; Loopstra, Erik; Benschop, Jos; Finders, Jo; Meiling, Hans; van Setten, Eelco; Mika, Niclas; Dredonx, Jeannot; Stamm, Uwe; Kneer, Bernhard; Thuering, Bernd; Kaiser, Winfried; Heil, Tilmann; Migura, Sascha

2017-03-01

While EUV systems equipped with a 0.33 Numerical Aperture lenses are readying to start volume manufacturing, ASML and Zeiss are ramping up their development activities on a EUV exposure tool with Numerical Aperture greater than 0.5. The purpose of this scanner, targeting a resolution of 8nm, is to extend Moore's law throughout the next decade. A novel, anamorphic lens design, has been developed to provide the required Numerical Aperture; this lens will be paired with new, faster stages and more accurate sensors enabling Moore's law economical requirements, as well as the tight focus and overlay control needed for future process nodes. The tighter focus and overlay control budgets, as well as the anamorphic optics, will drive innovations in the imaging and OPC modelling, and possibly in the metrology concepts. Furthermore, advances in resist and mask technology will be required to image lithography features with less than 10nm resolution. This paper presents an overview of the key technology innovations and infrastructure requirements for the next generation EUV systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Chao; Xu, Jun; Cao, Lei

The electrodes of lithium-ion batteries (LIB) are known to be brittle and to fail earlier than the separators during an external crush event. Thus, the understanding of mechanical failure mechanism for LIB electrodes (anode and cathode) is critical for the safety design of LIB cells. In this paper, we present experimental and numerical studies on the constitutive behavior and progression of failure in LIB electrodes. Mechanical tests were designed and conducted to evaluate the constitutive properties of porous electrodes. Constitutive models were developed to describe the stress-strain response of electrodes under uniaxial tensile and compressive loads. The failure criterion andmore » a damage model were introduced to model their unique tensile and compressive failure behavior. The failure mechanism of LIB electrodes was studied using the blunt rod test on dry electrodes, and numerical models were built to simulate progressive failure. The different failure processes were examined and analyzed in detail numerically, and correlated with experimentally observed failure phenomena. Finally, the test results and models improve our understanding of failure behavior in LIB electrodes, and provide constructive insights on future development of physics-based safety design tools for battery structures under mechanical abuse.« less

Research highlights: June 1990 - May 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Linear instability calculations at MSFC have suggested that the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) should exhibit classic baroclinic instability at accessible parameter settings. Interest was in the mechanisms of transition to temporal chaos and the evolution of spatio-temporal chaos. In order to understand more about such transitions, high resolution numerical experiments for the physically simplest model of two layer baroclinic instability were conducted. This model has the advantage that the numerical code is exponentially convergent and can be efficiently run for very long times, enabling the study of chaotic attractors without the often devastating effects of low-order trunction found in many previous studies. Numerical algorithms for implementing an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the high resolution numerical results were completed. Under conditions of rapid rotation and relatively low differential heating, convection in a spherical shell takes place as columnar banana cells wrapped around the annular gap, but with axes oriented along the axis of rotation; these were clearly evident in the GFFC experiments. The results of recent numerical simulations of columnar convection and future research plans are presented.

Limitations in predicting the space radiation health risk for exploration astronauts.

PubMed

Chancellor, Jeffery C; Blue, Rebecca S; Cengel, Keith A; Auñón-Chancellor, Serena M; Rubins, Kathleen H; Katzgraber, Helmut G; Kennedy, Ann R

2018-01-01

Despite years of research, understanding of the space radiation environment and the risk it poses to long-duration astronauts remains limited. There is a disparity between research results and observed empirical effects seen in human astronaut crews, likely due to the numerous factors that limit terrestrial simulation of the complex space environment and extrapolation of human clinical consequences from varied animal models. Given the intended future of human spaceflight, with efforts now to rapidly expand capabilities for human missions to the moon and Mars, there is a pressing need to improve upon the understanding of the space radiation risk, predict likely clinical outcomes of interplanetary radiation exposure, and develop appropriate and effective mitigation strategies for future missions. To achieve this goal, the space radiation and aerospace community must recognize the historical limitations of radiation research and how such limitations could be addressed in future research endeavors. We have sought to highlight the numerous factors that limit understanding of the risk of space radiation for human crews and to identify ways in which these limitations could be addressed for improved understanding and appropriate risk posture regarding future human spaceflight.

Combining numerical simulations with time-domain random walk for pathogen risk assessment in groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cvetkovic, V.; Molin, S.

2012-02-01

We present a methodology that combines numerical simulations of groundwater flow and advective transport in heterogeneous porous media with analytical retention models for computing the infection risk probability from pathogens in aquifers. The methodology is based on the analytical results presented in [1,2] for utilising the colloid filtration theory in a time-domain random walk framework. It is shown that in uniform flow, the results from the numerical simulations of advection yield comparable results as the analytical TDRW model for generating advection segments. It is shown that spatial variability of the attachment rate may be significant, however, it appears to affect risk in a different manner depending on if the flow is uniform or radially converging. In spite of the fact that numerous issues remain open regarding pathogen transport in aquifers on the field scale, the methodology presented here may be useful for screening purposes, and may also serve as a basis for future studies that would include greater complexity.

On the Numerical Study of Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Ching-Sen; Chen, Yi-Leng; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao; Lin, Pay-Liam; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Heavy rainfall events are frequently observed over the western side of the CMR (central mountain range), which runs through Taiwan in a north-south orientation, in a southwesterly flow regime and over the northeastern side of the CMR in a northeasterly flow regime. Previous studies have revealed the mechanisms by which the heavy rainfall events are formed. Some of them have examined characteristics of the heavy rainfall via numerical simulations. In this paper, some of the previous numerical studies on heavy rainfall events around Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season (May and June), summer (non-typhoon cases) and autumn will be reviewed. Associated mechanisms proposed from observational studies will be reviewed first, and then characteristics of numerically simulated heavy rainfall events will be presented. The formation mechanisms of heavy rainfall from simulated results and from observational analysis are then compared and discussed. Based on these previous modeling studies, we will also discuss what are the major observations and modeling processes which will be needed for understanding the heavy precipitation in the future.

The impacts of climate changes in the renewable energy resources in the Caribbean region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J

2010-02-01

Assessment of renewable energy resources such as surface solar radiation and wind current has great relevance in the development of local and regional energy policies. This paper examines the variability and availability of these resources as a function of possible climate changes for the Caribbean region. Global climate changes have been reported in the last decades, causing changes in the atmospheric dynamics, which affects the net solar radiation balance at the surface and the wind strength and direction. For this investigation, the future climate changes for the Caribbean are predicted using the parallel climate model (PCM) and it is coupledmore » with the numerical model regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) to simulate the solar and wind energy spatial patterns changes for the specific case of the island of Puerto Rico. Numerical results from PCM indicate that the Caribbean basin from 2041 to 2055 will experience a slight decrease in the net surface solar radiation (with respect to the years 1996-2010), which is more pronounced in the western Caribbean sea. Results also indicate that the easterly winds have a tendency to increase in its magnitude, especially from the years 2070 to 2098. The regional model showed that important areas to collect solar energy are located in the eastern side of Puerto Rico, while the more intense wind speed is placed around the coast. A future climate change is expected in the Caribbean that will result in higher energy demands, but both renewable energy sources will have enough intensity to be used in the future as alternative energy resources to mitigate future climate changes.« less

Training a New Breed of Automated Manufacturing Technology Practitioners.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bainter, Jack J.

1986-01-01

A boom in industrial robotics has led numerous vocational institutions to launch extensive training programs in this specialty. ITT Educational Services offers two curriculum programs to train future manufacturing engineers. The firm's national director describes this model curriculum for meeting the needs of today's workforce. (JN)

Polarimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagendra, K. N.; Bagnulo, Stefano; Centeno, Rebecca; Jesús Martínez González, María.

2015-08-01

Preface; 1. Solar and stellar surface magnetic fields; 2. Future directions in astrophysical polarimetry; 3. Physical processes; 4. Instrumentation for astronomical polarimetry; 5. Data analysis techniques for polarization observations; 6. Polarization diagnostics of atmospheres and circumstellar environments; 7. Polarimetry as a tool for discovery science; 8. Numerical modeling of polarized emission; Author index.

Parameter extraction and transistor models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rykken, Charles; Meiser, Verena; Turner, Greg; Wang, QI

1985-01-01

Using specified mathematical models of the MOSFET device, the optimal values of the model-dependent parameters were extracted from data provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Three MOSFET models, all one-dimensional were used. One of the models took into account diffusion (as well as convection) currents. The sensitivity of the models was assessed for variations of the parameters from their optimal values. Lines of future inquiry are suggested on the basis of the behavior of the devices, of the limitations of the proposed models, and of the complexity of the required numerical investigations.

MCore: A High-Order Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullrich, P.; Jablonowski, C.

2011-12-01

The desire for increasingly accurate predictions of the atmosphere has driven numerical models to smaller and smaller resolutions, while simultaneously exponentially driving up the cost of existing numerical models. Even with the modern rapid advancement of computational performance, it is estimated that it will take more than twenty years before existing models approach the scales needed to resolve atmospheric convection. However, smarter numerical methods may allow us to glimpse the types of results we would expect from these fine-scale simulations while only requiring a fraction of the computational cost. The next generation of atmospheric models will likely need to rely on both high-order accuracy and adaptive mesh refinement in order to properly capture features of interest. We present our ongoing research on developing a set of ``smart'' numerical methods for simulating the global non-hydrostatic fluid equations which govern atmospheric motions. We have harnessed a high-order finite-volume based approach in developing an atmospheric dynamical core on the cubed-sphere. This type of method is desirable for applications involving adaptive grids, since it has been shown that spuriously reflected wave modes are intrinsically damped out under this approach. The model further makes use of an implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta-Rosenbrock (IMEX-RKR) time integrator for accurate and efficient coupling of the horizontal and vertical model components. We survey the algorithmic development of the model and present results from idealized dynamical core test cases, as well as give a glimpse at future work with our model.

LORAN-C LATITUDE-LONGITUDE CONVERSION AT SEA: PROGRAMMING CONSIDERATIONS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCullough, James R.; Irwin, Barry J.; Bowles, Robert M.

1985-01-01

Comparisons are made of the precision of arc-length routines as computer precision is reduced. Overland propagation delays are discussed and illustrated with observations from offshore New England. Present practice of LORAN-C error budget modeling is then reviewed with the suggestion that additional terms be considered in future modeling. Finally, some detailed numeric examples are provided to help with new computer program checkout.

Effect of Second-Order and Fully Nonlinear Wave Kinematics on a Tension-Leg-Platform Wind Turbine in Extreme Wave Conditions: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N; Jonkman, Jason; Pegalajar-Jurado, Antonio

In this study, we assess the impact of different wave kinematics models on the dynamic response of a tension-leg-platform wind turbine. Aero-hydro-elastic simulations of the floating wind turbine are carried out employing linear, second-order, and fully nonlinear kinematics using the Morison equation for the hydrodynamic forcing. The wave kinematics are computed from either theoretical or measured signals of free-surface elevation. The numerical results from each model are compared to results from wave basin tests on a scaled prototype. The comparison shows that sub and superharmonic responses can be introduced by second-order and fully nonlinear wave kinematics. The response at themore » wave frequency range is better reproduced when kinematics are generated from the measured surface elevation. In the future, the numerical response may be further improved by replacing the global, constant damping coefficients in the model by a more detailed, customizable definition of the user-defined numerical damping.« less

Effect of Second-Order and Fully Nonlinear Wave Kinematics on a Tension-Leg-Platform Wind Turbine in Extreme Wave Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N; Jonkman, Jason; Pegalajar-Jurado, Antonio

In this study, we assess the impact of different wave kinematics models on the dynamic response of a tension-leg-platform wind turbine. Aero-hydro-elastic simulations of the floating wind turbine are carried out employing linear, second-order, and fully nonlinear kinematics using the Morison equation for the hydrodynamic forcing. The wave kinematics are computed from either theoretical or measured signals of free-surface elevation. The numerical results from each model are compared to results from wave basin tests on a scaled prototype. The comparison shows that sub and superharmonic responses can be introduced by second-order and fully nonlinear wave kinematics. The response at themore » wave frequency range is better reproduced when kinematics are generated from the measured surface elevation. In the future, the numerical response may be further improved by replacing the global, constant damping coefficients in the model by a more detailed, customizable definition of the user-defined numerical damping.« less

Validation Database Based Thermal Analysis of an Advanced RPS Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Emis, Nickolas D.

2006-01-01

Advanced RPS concepts can be conceived, designed and assessed using high-end computational analysis tools. These predictions may provide an initial insight into the potential performance of these models, but verification and validation are necessary and required steps to gain confidence in the numerical analysis results. This paper discusses the findings from a numerical validation exercise for a small advanced RPS concept, based on a thermal analysis methodology developed at JPL and on a validation database obtained from experiments performed at Oregon State University. Both the numerical and experimental configurations utilized a single GPHS module enabled design, resembling a Mod-RTG concept. The analysis focused on operating and environmental conditions during the storage phase only. This validation exercise helped to refine key thermal analysis and modeling parameters, such as heat transfer coefficients, and conductivity and radiation heat transfer values. Improved understanding of the Mod-RTG concept through validation of the thermal model allows for future improvements to this power system concept.

Using 3-D Numerical Weather Data in Piloted Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.

2016-01-01

This report describes the process of acquiring and using 3-D numerical model weather data sets in NASA Langley's Research Flight Deck (RFD). A set of software tools implement the process and can be used for other purposes as well. Given time and location information of a weather phenomenon of interest, the user can download associated numerical weather model data. These data are created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, and are then processed using a set of Mathworks' Matlab(TradeMark) scripts to create the usable 3-D weather data sets. Each data set includes radar re ectivity, water vapor, component winds, temperature, supercooled liquid water, turbulence, pressure, altitude, land elevation, relative humidity, and water phases. An open-source data processing program, wgrib2, is available from NOAA online, and is used along with Matlab scripts. These scripts are described with sucient detail to make future modi cations. These software tools have been used to generate 3-D weather data for various RFD experiments.

Rigorous numerical modeling of scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy and spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xinzhong; Lo, Chiu Fan Bowen; Zheng, William; Hu, Hai; Dai, Qing; Liu, Mengkun

2017-11-01

Over the last decade, scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy and spectroscopy have been widely used in nano-photonics and material research due to their fine spatial resolution and broad spectral range. A number of simplified analytical models have been proposed to quantitatively understand the tip-scattered near-field signal. However, a rigorous interpretation of the experimental results is still lacking at this stage. Numerical modelings, on the other hand, are mostly done by simulating the local electric field slightly above the sample surface, which only qualitatively represents the near-field signal rendered by the tip-sample interaction. In this work, we performed a more comprehensive numerical simulation which is based on realistic experimental parameters and signal extraction procedures. By directly comparing to the experiments as well as other simulation efforts, our methods offer a more accurate quantitative description of the near-field signal, paving the way for future studies of complex systems at the nanoscale.

Global Cerebral Ischemia: Synaptic and Cognitive Dysfunction

PubMed Central

Neumann, Jake T.; Cohan, Charles H.; Dave, Kunjan R.; Wright, Clinton B.; Perez-Pinzon, Miguel A.

2018-01-01

Cardiopulmonary arrest is one of the leading causes of death and disability, primarily occurring in the aged population. Numerous global cerebral ischemia animal models induce neuronal damage similar to cardiac arrest. These global cerebral ischemia models range from vessel occlusion to total cessation of cardiac function, both of which have allowed for the investigation of this multifaceted disease and detection of numerous agents that are neuroprotective. Synapses endure a variety of alterations after global cerebral ischemia from the resulting excitotoxicity and have been a major target for neuroprotection; however, neuroprotective agents have proven unsuccessful in clinical trials, as neurological outcomes have not displayed significant improvements in patients. A majority of these neuroprotective agents have specific neuronal targets, where the success of future neuroprotective agents may depend on non-specific targets and numerous cognitive improvements. This review focuses on the different models of global cerebral ischemia, neuronal synaptic alterations, synaptic neuroprotection and behavioral tests that can be used to determine deficits in cognitive function after global cerebral ischemia. PMID:23170794

Modeling the source of GW150914 with targeted numerical-relativity simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovelace, Geoffrey; Lousto, Carlos O.; Healy, James; Scheel, Mark A.; Garcia, Alyssa; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Boyle, Michael; Campanelli, Manuela; Hemberger, Daniel A.; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Szilágyi, Béla; Teukolsky, Saul A.; Zlochower, Yosef

2016-12-01

In fall of 2015, the two LIGO detectors measured the gravitational wave signal GW150914, which originated from a pair of merging black holes (Abbott et al Virgo, LIGO Scientific 2016 Phys. Rev. Lett. 116 061102). In the final 0.2 s (about 8 gravitational-wave cycles) before the amplitude reached its maximum, the observed signal swept up in amplitude and frequency, from 35 Hz to 150 Hz. The theoretical gravitational-wave signal for merging black holes, as predicted by general relativity, can be computed only by full numerical relativity, because analytic approximations fail near the time of merger. Moreover, the nearly-equal masses, moderate spins, and small number of orbits of GW150914 are especially straightforward and efficient to simulate with modern numerical-relativity codes. In this paper, we report the modeling of GW150914 with numerical-relativity simulations, using black-hole masses and spins consistent with those inferred from LIGO’s measurement (Abbott et al LIGO Scientific Collaboration, Virgo Collaboration 2016 Phys. Rev. Lett. 116 241102). In particular, we employ two independent numerical-relativity codes that use completely different analytical and numerical methods to model the same merging black holes and to compute the emitted gravitational waveform; we find excellent agreement between the waveforms produced by the two independent codes. These results demonstrate the validity, impact, and potential of current and future studies using rapid-response, targeted numerical-relativity simulations for better understanding gravitational-wave observations.

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer Chyi; Hall, Doyle T.

2013-01-01

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

PubMed

Nordam, Tor; Dunnebier, Dorien A E; Beegle-Krause, C J; Reed, Mark; Slagstad, Dag

2017-12-01

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

Numerical modeling of the 2017 active seismic infrasound balloon experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brissaud, Q.; Komjathy, A.; Garcia, R.; Cutts, J. A.; Pauken, M.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; Mimoun, D.; Jackson, J. M.; Lai, V. H.; Kedar, S.; Levillain, E.

2017-12-01

We have developed a numerical tool to propagate acoustic and gravity waves in a coupled solid-fluid medium with topography. It is a hybrid method between a continuous Galerkin and a discontinuous Galerkin method that accounts for non-linear atmospheric waves, visco-elastic waves and topography. We apply this method to a recent experiment that took place in the Nevada desert to study acoustic waves from seismic events. This experiment, developed by JPL and its partners, wants to demonstrate the viability of a new approach to probe seismic-induced acoustic waves from a balloon platform. To the best of our knowledge, this could be the only way, for planetary missions, to perform tomography when one faces challenging surface conditions, with high pressure and temperature (e.g. Venus), and thus when it is impossible to use conventional electronics routinely employed on Earth. To fully demonstrate the effectiveness of such a technique one should also be able to reconstruct the observed signals from numerical modeling. To model the seismic hammer experiment and the subsequent acoustic wave propagation, we rely on a subsurface seismic model constructed from the seismometers measurements during the 2017 Nevada experiment and an atmospheric model built from meteorological data. The source is considered as a Gaussian point source located at the surface. Comparison between the numerical modeling and the experimental data could help future mission designs and provide great insights into the planet's interior structure.

Numerical solution of a logistic growth model for a population with Allee effect considering fuzzy initial values and fuzzy parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Z.; Nurkholipah, N. S.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

Predicting the future of population number is among the important factors that affect the consideration in preparing a good management for the population. This has been done by various known method, one among them is by developing a mathematical model describing the growth of the population. The model usually takes form in a differential equation or a system of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. The most widely used growth models currently are those having a sigmoid solution of time series, including the Verhulst logistic equation and the Gompertz equation. In this paper we consider the Allee effect of the Verhulst’s logistic population model. The Allee effect is a phenomenon in biology showing a high correlation between population size or density and the mean individual fitness of the population. The method used to derive the solution is the Runge-Kutta numerical scheme, since it is in general regarded as one among the good numerical scheme which is relatively easy to implement. Further exploration is done via the fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate the impreciseness of the initial values and parameters in the model.

Integrated Modeling and Decision-Support System for Water Management in the Puget Sound Basin: Snow Caps to White Caps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Yang, Zhaoqing; Voisin, Nathalie

2013-12-01

Final Report for the EPA-sponsored project Snow Caps to White Caps that provides data products and insight for water resource managers to support their predictions and management actions to address future changes in water resources (fresh and marine) in the Puget Sound basin. This report details the efforts of a team of scientists and engineers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington (UW) to examine the movement of water in the Snohomish Basin, within the watershed and the estuary, under present and future conditions, using a set of linked numerical models.

Foreword to the Special Issue on Remote Sensing and Modeling of Surface Properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

CURRENTLY, the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) community is striving for better ways to extract information on the lower layer using current and future satellite systems to improve short-term to medium-range forecasts. The surface emissivity is highly variable and may cause biases in the forward ...

Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling

Treesearch

David L. Peterson; Daniel L. Schmoldt

2000-01-01

In 1996, a team of North American fire scientists and resource managers convened to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems and to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations - elicited with the Analytic Hierarchy Process - include numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and...

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Education--A Personal View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richer, Mark H.

1985-01-01

Discusses: how artificial intelligence (AI) can advance education; if the future of software lies in AI; the roots of intelligent computer-assisted instruction; protocol analysis; reactive environments; LOGO programming language; student modeling and coaching; and knowledge-based instructional programs. Numerous examples of AI programs are cited.…

Anticipatory systems using a probabilistic-possibilistic formalism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsoukalas, L.H.

1989-01-01

A methodology for the realization of the Anticipatory Paradigm in the diagnosis and control of complex systems, such as power plants, is developed. The objective is to synthesize engineering systems as analogs of certain biological systems which are capable of modifying their present states on the basis of anticipated future states. These future states are construed to be the output of predictive, numerical, stochastic or symbolic models. The mathematical basis of the implementation is developed on the basis of a formulation coupling probabilistic (random) and possibilistic(fuzzy) data in the form of an Information Granule. Random data are generated from observationsmore » and sensors input from the environment. Fuzzy data consists of eqistemic information, such as criteria or constraints qualifying the environmental inputs. The approach generates mathematical performance measures upon which diagnostic inferences and control functions are based. Anticipated performance is generated using a fuzzified Bayes formula. Triplex arithmetic is used in the numerical estimation of the performance measures. Representation of the system is based upon a goal-tree within the rule-based paradigm from the field of Applied Artificial Intelligence. The ensuing construction incorporates a coupling of Symbolic and Procedural programming methods. As a demonstration of the possibility of constructing such systems, a model-based system of a nuclear reactor is constructed. A numerical model of the reactor as a damped simple harmonic oscillator is used. The neutronic behavior is described by a point kinetics model with temperature feedback. The resulting system is programmed in OPS5 for the symbolic component and in FORTRAN for the procedural part.« less

Design of Bi-Directional Hydrofoils for Tidal Current Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedyalkov, Ivaylo; Wosnik, Martin

2015-11-01

Tidal Current Turbines operate in flows which reverse direction. Bi-directional hydrofoils have rotational symmetry and allow such turbines to operate without the need for pitch or yaw control, decreasing the initial and maintenance costs. A numerical test-bed was developed to automate the simulations of hydrofoils in OpenFOAM and was utilized to simulate the flow over eleven classes of hydrofoils comprising a total of 700 foil shapes at different angles of attack. For promising candidate foil shapes physical models of 75 mm chord and 150 mm span were fabricated and tested in the University of New Hampshire High-Speed Cavitation Tunnel (HiCaT). The experimental results were compared to the simulations for model validation. The numerical test-bed successfully generated simulations for a wide range of foil shapes, although, as expected, the k - ω - SST turbulence model employed here was not adequate for some of the foils and for large angles of attack at which separation occurred. An optimization algorithm is currently being coupled with the numerical test-bed and additional turbulence models will be implemented in the future.

Numerical simulation of mechanical properties tests of tungsten mud waste geopolymer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paszek, Natalia; Krystek, Małgorzata

2018-03-01

Geopolymers are believed to become in the future an environmental friendly alternative for the concrete. The low CO2 emission during the production process and the possibility of ecological management of the industrial wastes are mentioned as main advantages of geopolymers. The main drawback, causing problems with application of geopolymers as a building material is the lack of the theoretical material model. Indicated problem is being solved now by the group of scientists from the Silesian University of Technology. The series of laboratory tests are carried out within the European research project REMINE. The paper introduces the numerical analyses of tungsten mud waste geopolymer samples which have been performed in the Atena software on the basis of the laboratory tests. Numerical models of bended and compressed samples of different shapes are presented in the paper. The results obtained in Atena software were compared with results obtained in Abaqus and Mafem3D software.

An investigation of the role of current and future remote sensing data systems in numerical meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diak, George R.; Smith, William L.

1992-01-01

A flexible system for performing observing system simulation experiments which made contributions to meteorology across all elements of the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) components was developed. Future work will seek better understanding of the links between satellite-measured radiation and radiative transfer in the clear, cloudy and precipitating atmosphere and investigate how that understanding might be applied to improve the depiction of the initial state and the treatment of physical processes in forecast models of the atmosphere.

Computer modeling and simulators as part of university training for NPP operating personnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volman, M.

2017-01-01

This paper considers aspects of a program for training future nuclear power plant personnel developed by the NPP Department of Ivanovo State Power Engineering University. Computer modeling is used for numerical experiments on the kinetics of nuclear reactors in Mathcad. Simulation modeling is carried out on the computer and full-scale simulator of water-cooled power reactor for the simulation of neutron-physical reactor measurements and the start-up - shutdown process.

Computational reacting gas dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lam, S. H.

1993-01-01

In the study of high speed flows at high altitudes, such as that encountered by re-entry spacecrafts, the interaction of chemical reactions and other non-equilibrium processes in the flow field with the gas dynamics is crucial. Generally speaking, problems of this level of complexity must resort to numerical methods for solutions, using sophisticated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes. The difficulties introduced by reacting gas dynamics can be classified into three distinct headings: (1) the usually inadequate knowledge of the reaction rate coefficients in the non-equilibrium reaction system; (2) the vastly larger number of unknowns involved in the computation and the expected stiffness of the equations; and (3) the interpretation of the detailed reacting CFD numerical results. The research performed accepts the premise that reacting flows of practical interest in the future will in general be too complex or 'untractable' for traditional analytical developments. The power of modern computers must be exploited. However, instead of focusing solely on the construction of numerical solutions of full-model equations, attention is also directed to the 'derivation' of the simplified model from the given full-model. In other words, the present research aims to utilize computations to do tasks which have traditionally been done by skilled theoreticians: to reduce an originally complex full-model system into an approximate but otherwise equivalent simplified model system. The tacit assumption is that once the appropriate simplified model is derived, the interpretation of the detailed numerical reacting CFD numerical results will become much easier. The approach of the research is called computational singular perturbation (CSP).

Numerical modeling of oil shale fragmentation experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuszmaul, J.S.

The economic development of modified in situ oil shale retorting will benefit from the ability to design a blasting scheme that creates a rubble bed of uniform permeability. Preparing such a design depends upon successfully predicting how a given explosive charge and firing sequence will fracture the oil shale. Numerical models are used to predict the extent of damage caused by a particular explosive charge. Recent single-blastwell cratering tests provided experimental measurements of the extent of damage induced by an explosion. Measuring rock damage involved crater excavation, rubble screening, crater elevation surveys, and posttest extraction of cores. These measurements weremore » compared to the damage calculated by the numerical model. Core analyses showed that the damage varied greatly from layer to layer. The numerical results also show this effect, indicating that rock damage is highly dependent on oil shale grade. The computer simulation also calculated particle velocities and dynamic stress amplitudes in the rock; predicted values agree with experimental measurements. Calculated rock fragmentation compared favorably with fragmentation measured by crater excavation and by core analysis. Because coring provides direct inspection of rock fragmentation, the use of posttest coring in future experiments is recommended.« less

Impacts of heavy groundwater pumping on hydrogeological conditions in Libya: Past and present development and future prognosis on a regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elgzeli, Yousef M.; Ondovčin, Tomáš; Hrkal, Zbyněk; Krásný, Jiří; Mls, Jiří

2013-06-01

Elgzeli, Y.M., Ondovčin, T., Hrkal, Z., Krasny, J. and Mls, J. 2011. Impacts of heavy groundwater pumping on hydrogeological conditions in Libya: Past and present development and future prognosis on a regional scale. Acta Geologica Polonica, 63 (2), 283-296. Warszawa. Libya, like many other regions with arid climates, suffers from inadequate water resources to cover all the needs of this rapidly developing country. Increasing amounts of water are needed to supply the population, as well as for agricultural irrigation and industrial use. As groundwater is the main water source in the country, it represents a natural resource of the highest economic and social importance. Conceptual and numerical models were implemented on a regional scale to show how the natural situation has changed following heavy groundwater abstraction during the last decades in the northwestern part of the country. The results of the numerical model indicated that the current zones of depression of the piezometric surface could have been caused by smaller withdrawn amounts than previously estimated. The differences in the assessed withdrawn groundwater volumes seem to be quite high and might have a considerable influence on the future possibilities of groundwater use in the study region.

Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

2017-11-01

The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

2013-01-01

Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

Effect of climate change on morphology around a port

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

2017-12-01

It is well known that with the construction of a port and harbour structure the natural shoreline gets interrupted and this disturbs the surrounding coastal morphology. Added to this concern is another one of recent origin, namely, the likely impact of climate change induced by global warming. The present work addresses this issue by describing a case study at New Mangalore Port situated along the west coast of India. The harbour was formed by constructing two breakwaters along either side of the port since the year 1975. We have first determined the rate of change of the shoreline surrounding the port using historic satellite imageries over a period of 36 years. Thereafter a numerical shoreline change model: LITPACK was used to do the same and it was forced by waves simulated over a period of past 36 years varying from 1979 to 2016 and future 36 years ranging from 2016 to 2052. The wave simulation was done with the help of numerical wave model: Mike21-SW which was driven by the wind from a regional climate model called CORDEX. This climate model was earlier run for a moderate global warming pathway called: RCP-4.5. The analysis of satellite imageries indicated that in the past the shoreline change varied from -1.69 m/year to 2.56 m/year with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 m/year and approximately half of the coastal stretch faced extensive erosion. It was found that the wind and waves at this region would intensify in future and also raise the probability of occurrence of high waves. As per the numerical shoreline modelling this would give rise to a much enhanced rate of erosion, namely -2.87 m/year to -3.62 m/year. This would call for a modified shoreline management strategy around the port area. The study highlights the importance of considering potential changes in wind and wave forcing because of the climate change in evaluating future rates of shoreline changes around a port and harbour structure.

The decisive future of inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

Forecasting induced seismicity rate and Mmax using calibrated numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, D.; Suckale, J.

2016-12-01

At Groningen, The Netherlands, several decades of induced seismicity from gas extraction has culminated in a M 3.6 event (mid 2012). From a public safety and commercial perspective, it is desirable to anticipate future seismicity outcomes at Groningen. One way to quantify earthquake risk is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), which requires an estimate of the future seismicity rate and its magnitude frequency distribution (MFD). This approach is effective at quantifying risk from tectonic events because the seismicity rate, once measured, is almost constant over timescales of interest. In contrast, rates of induced seismicity vary significantly over building lifetimes, largely in response to changes in injection or extraction. Thus, the key to extending PSHA to induced earthquakes is to estimate future changes of the seismicity rate in response to some proposed operating schedule. Numerical models can describe the physical link between fluid pressure, effective stress change, and the earthquake process (triggering and propagation). However, models with predictive potential of individual earthquakes face the difficulty of characterizing specific heterogeneity - stress, strength, roughness, etc. - at locations of interest. Modeling catalogs of earthquakes provides a means of averaging over this uncertainty, focusing instead on the collective features of the seismicity, e.g., its rate and MFD. The model we use incorporates fluid pressure and stress changes to describe nucleation and crack-like propagation of earthquakes on stochastically characterized 1D faults. This enables simulation of synthetic catalogs of induced seismicity from which the seismicity rate, location and MFD are extracted. A probability distribution for Mmax - the largest event in some specified time window - is also computed. Because the model captures the physics linking seismicity to changes in the reservoir, earthquake observations and operating information can be used to calibrate a model at a specific site (or, ideally, many models). This restricts analysis of future seismicity to likely parameter sets and provides physical justification for linking operational changes to subsequent seismicity. To illustrate these concepts, a recent study of prior and forecast seismicity at Groningen will be presented.

Dynamical phase separation using a microfluidic device: experiments and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aymard, Benjamin; Vaes, Urbain; Radhakrishnan, Anand; Pradas, Marc; Gavriilidis, Asterios; Kalliadasis, Serafim; Complex Multiscale Systems Team

2017-11-01

We study the dynamical phase separation of a binary fluid by a microfluidic device both from the experimental and from the modeling points of view. The experimental device consists of a main channel (600 μm wide) leading into an array of 276 trapezoidal capillaries of 5 μm width arranged on both sides and separating the lateral channels from the main channel. Due to geometrical effects as well as wetting properties of the substrate, and under well chosen pressure boundary conditions, a multiphase flow introduced into the main channel gets separated at the capillaries. Understanding this dynamics via modeling and numerical simulation is a crucial step in designing future efficient micro-separators. We propose a diffuse-interface model, based on the classical Cahn-Hilliard-Navier-Stokes system, with a new nonlinear mobility and new wetting boundary conditions. We also propose a novel numerical method using a finite-element approach, together with an adaptive mesh refinement strategy. The complex geometry is captured using the same computer-aided design files as the ones adopted in the fabrication of the actual device. Numerical simulations reveal a very good qualitative agreement between model and experiments, demonstrating also a clear separation of phases.

Constitutive behavior and progressive mechanical failure of electrodes in lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Xu, Jun; Cao, Lei; Wu, Zenan; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

2017-07-01

The electrodes of lithium-ion batteries (LIB) are known to be brittle and to fail earlier than the separators during an external crush event. Thus, the understanding of mechanical failure mechanism for LIB electrodes (anode and cathode) is critical for the safety design of LIB cells. In this paper, we present experimental and numerical studies on the constitutive behavior and progression of failure in LIB electrodes. Mechanical tests were designed and conducted to evaluate the constitutive properties of porous electrodes. Constitutive models were developed to describe the stress-strain response of electrodes under uniaxial tensile and compressive loads. The failure criterion and a damage model were introduced to model their unique tensile and compressive failure behavior. The failure mechanism of LIB electrodes was studied using the blunt rod test on dry electrodes, and numerical models were built to simulate progressive failure. The different failure processes were examined and analyzed in detail numerically, and correlated with experimentally observed failure phenomena. The test results and models improve our understanding of failure behavior in LIB electrodes, and provide constructive insights on future development of physics-based safety design tools for battery structures under mechanical abuse.

Constitutive behavior and progressive mechanical failure of electrodes in lithium-ion batteries

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Chao; Xu, Jun; Cao, Lei; ...

2017-05-05

The electrodes of lithium-ion batteries (LIB) are known to be brittle and to fail earlier than the separators during an external crush event. Thus, the understanding of mechanical failure mechanism for LIB electrodes (anode and cathode) is critical for the safety design of LIB cells. In this paper, we present experimental and numerical studies on the constitutive behavior and progression of failure in LIB electrodes. Mechanical tests were designed and conducted to evaluate the constitutive properties of porous electrodes. Constitutive models were developed to describe the stress-strain response of electrodes under uniaxial tensile and compressive loads. The failure criterion andmore » a damage model were introduced to model their unique tensile and compressive failure behavior. The failure mechanism of LIB electrodes was studied using the blunt rod test on dry electrodes, and numerical models were built to simulate progressive failure. The different failure processes were examined and analyzed in detail numerically, and correlated with experimentally observed failure phenomena. Finally, the test results and models improve our understanding of failure behavior in LIB electrodes, and provide constructive insights on future development of physics-based safety design tools for battery structures under mechanical abuse.« less

Velocity Resolved---Scalar Modeled Simulations of High Schmidt Number Turbulent Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Siddhartha

The objective of this thesis is to develop a framework to conduct velocity resolved - scalar modeled (VR-SM) simulations, which will enable accurate simulations at higher Reynolds and Schmidt (Sc) numbers than are currently feasible. The framework established will serve as a first step to enable future simulation studies for practical applications. To achieve this goal, in-depth analyses of the physical, numerical, and modeling aspects related to Sc " 1 are presented, specifically when modeling in the viscous-convective subrange. Transport characteristics are scrutinized by examining scalar-velocity Fourier mode interactions in Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) datasets and suggest that scalar modes in the viscous-convective subrange do not directly affect large-scale transport for high Sc . Further observations confirm that discretization errors inherent in numerical schemes can be sufficiently large to wipe out any meaningful contribution from subfilter models. This provides strong incentive to develop more effective numerical schemes to support high Sc simulations. To lower numerical dissipation while maintaining physically and mathematically appropriate scalar bounds during the convection step, a novel method of enforcing bounds is formulated, specifically for use with cubic Hermite polynomials. Boundedness of the scalar being transported is effected by applying derivative limiting techniques, and physically plausible single sub-cell extrema are allowed to exist to help minimize numerical dissipation. The proposed bounding algorithm results in significant performance gain in DNS of turbulent mixing layers and of homogeneous isotropic turbulence. Next, the combined physical/mathematical behavior of the subfilter scalar-flux vector is analyzed in homogeneous isotropic turbulence, by examining vector orientation in the strain-rate eigenframe. The results indicate no discernible dependence on the modeled scalar field, and lead to the identification of the tensor-diffusivity model as a good representation of the subfilter flux. Velocity resolved - scalar modeled simulations of homogeneous isotropic turbulence are conducted to confirm the behavior theorized in these a priori analyses, and suggest that the tensor-diffusivity model is ideal for use in the viscous-convective subrange. Simulations of a turbulent mixing layer are also discussed, with the partial objective of analyzing Schmidt number dependence of a variety of scalar statistics. Large-scale statistics are confirmed to be relatively independent of the Schmidt number for Sc " 1, which is explained by the dominance of subfilter dissipation over resolved molecular dissipation in the simulations. Overall, the VR-SM framework presented is quite effective in predicting large-scale transport characteristics of high Schmidt number scalars, however, it is determined that prediction of subfilter quantities would entail additional modeling intended specifically for this purpose. The VR-SM simulations presented in this thesis provide us with the opportunity to overlap with experimental studies, while at the same time creating an assortment of baseline datasets for future validation of LES models, thereby satisfying the objectives outlined for this work.

Development of a linearized unsteady Euler analysis for turbomachinery blade rows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verdon, Joseph M.; Montgomery, Matthew D.; Kousen, Kenneth A.

1995-01-01

A linearized unsteady aerodynamic analysis for axial-flow turbomachinery blading is described in this report. The linearization is based on the Euler equations of fluid motion and is motivated by the need for an efficient aerodynamic analysis that can be used in predicting the aeroelastic and aeroacoustic responses of blade rows. The field equations and surface conditions required for inviscid, nonlinear and linearized, unsteady aerodynamic analyses of three-dimensional flow through a single, blade row operating within a cylindrical duct, are derived. An existing numerical algorithm for determining time-accurate solutions of the nonlinear unsteady flow problem is described, and a numerical model, based upon this nonlinear flow solver, is formulated for the first-harmonic linear unsteady problem. The linearized aerodynamic and numerical models have been implemented into a first-harmonic unsteady flow code, called LINFLUX. At present this code applies only to two-dimensional flows, but an extension to three-dimensions is planned as future work. The three-dimensional aerodynamic and numerical formulations are described in this report. Numerical results for two-dimensional unsteady cascade flows, excited by prescribed blade motions and prescribed aerodynamic disturbances at inlet and exit, are also provided to illustrate the present capabilities of the LINFLUX analysis.

A review of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanagh, Janine L.; Engwell, Samantha L.; Martin, Simon A.

2018-04-01

Modelling has been used in the study of volcanic systems for more than 100 years, building upon the approach first applied by Sir James Hall in 1815. Informed by observations of volcanological phenomena in nature, including eye-witness accounts of eruptions, geophysical or geodetic monitoring of active volcanoes, and geological analysis of ancient deposits, laboratory and numerical models have been used to describe and quantify volcanic and magmatic processes that span orders of magnitudes of time and space. We review the use of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanological research, focussing on sub-surface and eruptive processes including the accretion and evolution of magma chambers, the propagation of sheet intrusions, the development of volcanic flows (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars), volcanic plume formation, and ash dispersal. When first introduced into volcanology, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations marked a transition in approach from broadly qualitative to increasingly quantitative research. These methods are now widely used in volcanology to describe the physical and chemical behaviours that govern volcanic and magmatic systems. Creating simplified models of highly dynamical systems enables volcanologists to simulate and potentially predict the nature and impact of future eruptions. These tools have provided significant insights into many aspects of the volcanic plumbing system and eruptive processes. The largest scientific advances in volcanology have come from a multidisciplinary approach, applying developments in diverse fields such as engineering and computer science to study magmatic and volcanic phenomena. A global effort in the integration of laboratory and numerical volcano modelling is now required to tackle key problems in volcanology and points towards the importance of benchmarking exercises and the need for protocols to be developed so that models are routinely tested against real world data.

Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Elizabeth Ann; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-02-01

Landslides have large negative economic and societal impacts, including loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment is a vital tool for landslide risk management, but high levels of uncertainty often challenge its usefulness. Uncertainties are associated with the numerical model used to assess slope stability and its parameters, with the data characterizing the geometric, geotechnic and hydrologic properties of the slope, and with hazard triggers (e.g. rainfall). Uncertainties associated with many of these factors are also likely to be exacerbated further by future climatic and socio-economic changes, such as increased urbanization and resultant land use change. In this study, we illustrate how numerical models can be used to explore the uncertain factors that influence potential future landslide hazard using a bottom-up strategy. Specifically, we link the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) with sensitivity analysis and Classification And Regression Trees (CART) to identify critical thresholds in slope properties and climatic (rainfall) drivers that lead to slope failure. We apply our approach to a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. For this particular slope, we find that uncertainties regarding some slope properties (namely thickness and effective cohesion of topsoil) are as important as the uncertainties related to future rainfall conditions. Furthermore, we show that 89 % of the expected behaviour of the studied slope can be characterized based on only two variables - the ratio of topsoil thickness to cohesion and the ratio of rainfall intensity to duration.

Lessons learned from combined experimental and numerical modelling of urban floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambeau, Pierre; Bruwier, Martin; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Dewals, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Field data for validating hydraulic models remain scarce. They are often limited to inundation extents and water marks, which provide little insights into the dynamic features of the flow in urbanized floodplains, such as the discharge partition in-between the streets and the velocity fields. To address this issue, a unique experimental setup representing a whole urban district was built in the laboratory ICube in Strasbourg and the state-of-the-art shallow-water model Wolf 2D was tested against the experimental measurements (Arrault et al. 2016). The numerical model was also used to extend and refine the analysis of the laboratory observations. The experimental model (5 m × 5 m) represents a square urban district with a total of 14 streets of different widths and 49 intersections (crossroads). The inflow discharge can be controlled in each street individually and the outflow discharges were measured downstream of each street. The numerical model Wolf was developed at the University of Liege and has been extensively used in flood risk research (Beckers et al. 2013, Bruwier et al. 2015, Detrembleur et al. 2015). Several lessons could be learned from this combined experimental and numerical analysis. First, we found that the discharge partition in-between the streets is primarily controlled by the street widths. Second, although the standard shallow-water equations reproduce satisfactorily most of the flow characteristics, adding a turbulence model improves the prediction of the shape and length of the flow recirculations in the streets. Yet, this has little influence on the discharge partition because the computed recirculation widths are hardly affected by the turbulence model. The experiments and the numerical model also show that the water depths in the streets remain fairly constant in-between two intersections, while they drop suddenly downstream of each intersection as a result of complex flow interactions at the intersections. This hints that friction has little influence on the water depths obtained in the experiments. However, tailored numerical tests demonstrate that this is a direct consequence of the distorted nature of the experimental setup. Indeed, the ratio between the water depth and the street width is close to 1 in the experiments, while it would be at least one order of magnitude lower in real-world conditions, even for extreme floods. Finally, remote sensing data, such as digital elevation models, are generally available on a regular grid, which makes it convenient to use also a Cartesian grid for hydraulic modelling. We show here that the discretization of the geometry of the buildings on such a Cartesian grid has a major influence on the modelling accuracy (overestimation of the overall flow resistance). An extended shallow-water model based on non-isotropic porosity parameters is shown to improve substantially the prediction of the discharge partition in-between the streets. It is therefore considered as a valuable tool to advance urban flood modelling in practice. From the lessons learned here, we recommend that future research focuses on the design and exploitation of a less distorted experimental model, as well as on the analysis of extra flow processes such as transient conditions and interactions between overland flow and pressurized flow in underground passages. References Arrault, A., Finaud-Guyot, P., Archambeau, P., Bruwier, M., Erpicum, S., Pirotton, M., & Dewals, B. (2016). Hydrodynamics of long-duration urban ?oods: experiments and numerical modelling. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 16, 1413-1429. Beckers, A., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Dujardin, S., Detrembleur, S., Teller, J., Pirotton, M., & Archambeau, P. (2013). Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 13, 2301-2318. Bruwier, M., Erpicum, S., Pirotton, M., Archambeau, P., & Dewals, B. (2015). Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling chain. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 15, 365-379. Detrembleur, S., Stilmant, F., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., & Pirotton, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards, 77(3), 1533-1549. Acknowledgement Part of this research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Determining the Current and Future Health of Low-Latitude Andean Glaciers Using an Equilibrium Line Altitude Model and Hypsometric Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2015-12-01

Mountain glaciers have been described as the water towers of world, and for many populations in the low-latitude South American Andes, glacial runoff is vital for agricultural, industrial, and basic water needs. Previous studies of low-latitude Andean glaciers suggest a precarious future due to contemporary warming. These studies have looked at trends in freezing level heights or observations of contemporary retreat. However, regional-scale understanding of low-latitude glacial responses to present and future climate change is limited, in part due to incomplete information about the extent and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers. The recently published Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) (5.0) provides the necessary information about the size and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers to begin such studies. We determine the contemporary equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for low-latitude Andean glaciers in the RGI, using a numerical energy balance ablation model driven with reanalysis and gridded data products. Contemporary ELAs tend to fall around the peak of the elevation histogram, with an exception being the southern-most outer tropical glaciers whose modeled ELAs tend to be higher than the elevation histogram for that region (see below figure). Also, we use the linear tends in temperature and precipitation from the contemporary climatology to extrapolate 21stcentury climate forcings. Modeled ELAs by the middle on the century are universally predicted to rise, with outer tropical ELAs rising more than the inner tropical glaciers. These trends continue through the end of the century. Finally, we explore how climate variables and parameters in our numerical model may vary for different warming scenarios from United Nation's IPCC AR5 report. We quantify the impacts of these changes on ELAs for various climate change trajectories. These results support previous work on the precarious future of low latitude Andean glaciers, while providing a richer understanding of the glacial impacts of contemporary and future warming. Also, this work provides analysis of processes and feedbacks between different climate variables important to glacier mass balances in a warming world, improving predictions for the fate of low-latitude Andean glaciers.

Role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier instability: Results from numerical modeling applied to Petermann Glacier (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F.; Hubbard, A.; Vieli, A.; van der Veen, C. J.; Box, J. E.; Bates, R.; Luckman, A. J.

2009-12-01

Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

Role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier instability: Results from numerical modelling applied to Petermann Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, Faezeh M.; Hubbard, Alun; van der Veen, Kees; Vieli, Andreas

2010-05-01

Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modelling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

Cross-disciplinary links in environmental systems science: Current state and claimed needs identified in a meta-review of process models.

PubMed

Ayllón, Daniel; Grimm, Volker; Attinger, Sabine; Hauhs, Michael; Simmer, Clemens; Vereecken, Harry; Lischeid, Gunnar

2018-05-01

Terrestrial environmental systems are characterised by numerous feedback links between their different compartments. However, scientific research is organized into disciplines that focus on processes within the respective compartments rather than on interdisciplinary links. Major feedback mechanisms between compartments might therefore have been systematically overlooked so far. Without identifying these gaps, initiatives on future comprehensive environmental monitoring schemes and experimental platforms might fail. We performed a comprehensive overview of feedbacks between compartments currently represented in environmental sciences and explores to what degree missing links have already been acknowledged in the literature. We focused on process models as they can be regarded as repositories of scientific knowledge that compile findings of numerous single studies. In total, 118 simulation models from 23 model types were analysed. Missing processes linking different environmental compartments were identified based on a meta-review of 346 published reviews, model intercomparison studies, and model descriptions. Eight disciplines of environmental sciences were considered and 396 linking processes were identified and ascribed to the physical, chemical or biological domain. There were significant differences between model types and scientific disciplines regarding implemented interdisciplinary links. The most wide-spread interdisciplinary links were between physical processes in meteorology, hydrology and soil science that drive or set the boundary conditions for other processes (e.g., ecological processes). In contrast, most chemical and biological processes were restricted to links within the same compartment. Integration of multiple environmental compartments and interdisciplinary knowledge was scarce in most model types. There was a strong bias of suggested future research foci and model extensions towards reinforcing existing interdisciplinary knowledge rather than to open up new interdisciplinary pathways. No clear pattern across disciplines exists with respect to suggested future research efforts. There is no evidence that environmental research would clearly converge towards more integrated approaches or towards an overarching environmental systems theory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Moderated Mediation Model of the Relationship between Organizational Citizenship Behaviors and Job Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozer, Muammer

2011-01-01

Addressing numerous calls for future research on understanding the theoretical mechanisms that explain the relationship between organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) and job performance, this study focused on how an employee's relationships with coworkers mediate the relationship between his or her OCBs and his or her job performance. It…

Mathematical and Numerical Studies of Nonstandard Difference Equation Models of Differential Equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mickens, Ronald E.

2008-12-22

This research examined the following items/issues: the NSFD methodology, technical achievements and applications, dissemination efforts and research related professional activities. Also a list of unresolved issues were identified that could form the basis for future research in the area of constructing and analyzing NSFD schemes for both ODE's and PDE's.

Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

2017-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

Nonlinear model analysis of all-optical flip-flop and inverter operations of microring laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Naoki; Kawamura, Yusaku; Aoki, Ryosuke; Kokubun, Yasuo

2018-03-01

We explore a theoretical model of bistability at two adjacent lasing wavelengths from an InGaAs/InGaAsP multiple quantum well (MQW) microring laser. We show that nonlinear effects on the phase and amplitude play significant roles in the lasing operations of the microring laser. Numerical simulations indicate that all-optical flip-flop operations and inverter operations can be observed within the same device by controlling the injection current. The validity of our analysis is confirmed by a comparison of the results for numerical simulations with experimental results of the lasing spectrum. We believe that the analysis presented in this paper will be useful for the future design of all-optical signal processing devices.

Numerical studies of various Néel-VBS transitions in SU(N) anti-ferromagnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, Ribhu K.; Block, Matthew S.

2015-09-01

In this manuscript we review recent developments in the numerical simulations of bipartite SU(N) spin models by quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. We provide an account of a large family of newly discovered sign-problem free spin models which can be simulated in their ground states on large lattices, containing O(105) spins, using the stochastic series expansion method with efficient loop algorithms. One of the most important applications so far of these Hamiltonians are to unbiased studies of quantum criticality between Neel and valence bond phases in two dimensions - a summary of this body of work is provided. The article concludes with an overview of the current status of and outlook for future studies of the “designer” Hamiltonians.

Towards a suite of test cases and a pycomodo library to assess and improve numerical methods in ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnier, Valérie; Honnorat, Marc; Benshila, Rachid; Boutet, Martial; Cambon, Gildas; Chanut, Jérome; Couvelard, Xavier; Debreu, Laurent; Ducousso, Nicolas; Duhaut, Thomas; Dumas, Franck; Flavoni, Simona; Gouillon, Flavien; Lathuilière, Cyril; Le Boyer, Arnaud; Le Sommer, Julien; Lyard, Florent; Marsaleix, Patrick; Marchesiello, Patrick; Soufflet, Yves

2016-04-01

The COMODO group (http://www.comodo-ocean.fr) gathers developers of global and limited-area ocean models (NEMO, ROMS_AGRIF, S, MARS, HYCOM, S-TUGO) with the aim to address well-identified numerical issues. In order to evaluate existing models, to improve numerical approaches and methods or concept (such as effective resolution) to assess the behavior of numerical model in complex hydrodynamical regimes and to propose guidelines for the development of future ocean models, a benchmark suite that covers both idealized test cases dedicated to targeted properties of numerical schemes and more complex test case allowing the evaluation of the kernel coherence is proposed. The benchmark suite is built to study separately, then together, the main components of an ocean model : the continuity and momentum equations, the advection-diffusion of the tracers, the vertical coordinate design and the time stepping algorithms. The test cases are chosen for their simplicity of implementation (analytic initial conditions), for their capacity to focus on a (few) scheme or part of the kernel, for the availability of analytical solutions or accurate diagnoses and lastly to simulate a key oceanic processus in a controlled environment. Idealized test cases allow to verify properties of numerical schemes advection-diffusion of tracers, - upwelling, - lock exchange, - baroclinic vortex, - adiabatic motion along bathymetry, and to put into light numerical issues that remain undetected in realistic configurations - trajectory of barotropic vortex, - interaction current - topography. When complexity in the simulated dynamics grows up, - internal wave, - unstable baroclinic jet, the sharing of the same experimental designs by different existing models is useful to get a measure of the model sensitivity to numerical choices (Soufflet et al., 2016). Lastly, test cases help in understanding the submesoscale influence on the dynamics (Couvelard et al., 2015). Such a benchmark suite is an interesting bed to continue research in numerical approaches as well as an efficient tool to maintain any oceanic code and assure the users a stamped model in a certain range of hydrodynamical regimes. Thanks to a common netCDF format, this suite is completed with a python library that encompasses all the tools and metrics used to assess the efficiency of the numerical methods. References - Couvelard X., F. Dumas, V. Garnier, A.L. Ponte, C. Talandier, A.M. Treguier (2015). Mixed layer formation and restratification in presence of mesoscale and submesoscale turbulence. Ocean Modelling, Vol 96-2, p 243-253. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.10.004. - Soufflet Y., P. Marchesiello, F. Lemarié, J. Jouanno, X. Capet, L. Debreu , R. Benshila (2016). On effective resolution in ocean models. Ocean Modelling, in press. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.12.004

Computer modeling of inversion layer MOS solar cells and arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, Fat Duen

1991-01-01

A two dimensional numerical model of the inversion layer metal insulator semiconductor (IL/MIS) solar cell is proposed by using the finite element method. The two-dimensional current flow in the device is taken into account in this model. The electrostatic potential distribution, the electron concentration distribution, and the hole concentration distribution for different terminal voltages are simulated. The results of simple calculation are presented. The existing problems for this model are addressed. Future work is proposed. The MIS structures are studied and some of the results are reported.

Discussion of DNS: Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joslin, Ronald D.

1997-01-01

This paper covers the review, status, and projected future of direct numerical simulation (DNS) methodology relative to the state-of-the-art in computer technology, numerical methods, and the trends in fundamental research programs.

Design, Progressive Modeling, Manufacture, and Testing of Composite Shield for Turbine Engine Blade Containment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Binienda, Wieslaw K.; Sancaktar, Erol; Roberts, Gary D. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An effective design methodology was established for composite jet engine containment structures. The methodology included the development of the full and reduced size prototypes, and FEA models of the containment structure, experimental and numerical examination of the modes of failure clue to turbine blade out event, identification of materials and design candidates for future industrial applications, and design and building of prototypes for testing and evaluation purposes.

Modeling Thermal Noise From Crystalline Coatings For Gravitational-Wave Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demos, Nicholas; Lovelace, Geoffrey; LSC Collaboration

2017-01-01

In 2015, Advanced LIGO made the first direct detection of gravitational waves. The sensitivity of current and future ground-based gravitational-wave detectors is limited by thermal noise in each detector's test mass substrate and coating. This noise can be modeled using the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, which relates thermal noise to an auxiliary elastic problem. I will present results from a new code that numerically models thermal noise for different crystalline mirror coatings. The thermal noise in crystalline mirror coatings could be significantly lower but is challenging to model analytically. The code uses a finite element method with adaptive mesh refinement to model the auxiliary elastic problem which is then related to thermal noise. Specifically, I will show results for a crystal coating on an amorphous substrate of varying sizes and elastic properties. This and future work will help develop the next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors.

Towards a metadata scheme for the description of materials - the description of microstructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Georg J.; Böttger, Bernd; Apel, Markus; Eiken, Janin; Laschet, Gottfried; Altenfeld, Ralph; Berger, Ralf; Boussinot, Guillaume; Viardin, Alexandre

2016-01-01

The property of any material is essentially determined by its microstructure. Numerical models are increasingly the focus of modern engineering as helpful tools for tailoring and optimization of custom-designed microstructures by suitable processing and alloy design. A huge variety of software tools is available to predict various microstructural aspects for different materials. In the general frame of an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach, these microstructure models provide the link between models operating at the atomistic or electronic scales, and models operating on the macroscopic scale of the component and its processing. In view of an improved interoperability of all these different tools it is highly desirable to establish a standardized nomenclature and methodology for the exchange of microstructure data. The scope of this article is to provide a comprehensive system of metadata descriptors for the description of a 3D microstructure. The presented descriptors are limited to a mere geometric description of a static microstructure and have to be complemented by further descriptors, e.g. for properties, numerical representations, kinetic data, and others in the future. Further attributes to each descriptor, e.g. on data origin, data uncertainty, and data validity range are being defined in ongoing work. The proposed descriptors are intended to be independent of any specific numerical representation. The descriptors defined in this article may serve as a first basis for standardization and will simplify the data exchange between different numerical models, as well as promote the integration of experimental data into numerical models of microstructures. An HDF5 template data file for a simple, three phase Al-Cu microstructure being based on the defined descriptors complements this article.

Towards a metadata scheme for the description of materials - the description of microstructures.

PubMed

Schmitz, Georg J; Böttger, Bernd; Apel, Markus; Eiken, Janin; Laschet, Gottfried; Altenfeld, Ralph; Berger, Ralf; Boussinot, Guillaume; Viardin, Alexandre

2016-01-01

The property of any material is essentially determined by its microstructure. Numerical models are increasingly the focus of modern engineering as helpful tools for tailoring and optimization of custom-designed microstructures by suitable processing and alloy design. A huge variety of software tools is available to predict various microstructural aspects for different materials. In the general frame of an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach, these microstructure models provide the link between models operating at the atomistic or electronic scales, and models operating on the macroscopic scale of the component and its processing. In view of an improved interoperability of all these different tools it is highly desirable to establish a standardized nomenclature and methodology for the exchange of microstructure data. The scope of this article is to provide a comprehensive system of metadata descriptors for the description of a 3D microstructure. The presented descriptors are limited to a mere geometric description of a static microstructure and have to be complemented by further descriptors, e.g. for properties, numerical representations, kinetic data, and others in the future. Further attributes to each descriptor, e.g. on data origin, data uncertainty, and data validity range are being defined in ongoing work. The proposed descriptors are intended to be independent of any specific numerical representation. The descriptors defined in this article may serve as a first basis for standardization and will simplify the data exchange between different numerical models, as well as promote the integration of experimental data into numerical models of microstructures. An HDF5 template data file for a simple, three phase Al-Cu microstructure being based on the defined descriptors complements this article.

Toward uniform implementation of parametric map Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine standard in multisite quantitative diffusion imaging studies.

PubMed

Malyarenko, Dariya; Fedorov, Andriy; Bell, Laura; Prah, Melissa; Hectors, Stefanie; Arlinghaus, Lori; Muzi, Mark; Solaiyappan, Meiyappan; Jacobs, Michael; Fung, Maggie; Shukla-Dave, Amita; McManus, Kevin; Boss, Michael; Taouli, Bachir; Yankeelov, Thomas E; Quarles, Christopher Chad; Schmainda, Kathleen; Chenevert, Thomas L; Newitt, David C

2018-01-01

This paper reports on results of a multisite collaborative project launched by the MRI subgroup of Quantitative Imaging Network to assess current capability and provide future guidelines for generating a standard parametric diffusion map Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine (DICOM) in clinical trials that utilize quantitative diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). Participating sites used a multivendor DWI DICOM dataset of a single phantom to generate parametric maps (PMs) of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) based on two models. The results were evaluated for numerical consistency among models and true phantom ADC values, as well as for consistency of metadata with attributes required by the DICOM standards. This analysis identified missing metadata descriptive of the sources for detected numerical discrepancies among ADC models. Instead of the DICOM PM object, all sites stored ADC maps as DICOM MR objects, generally lacking designated attributes and coded terms for quantitative DWI modeling. Source-image reference, model parameters, ADC units and scale, deemed important for numerical consistency, were either missing or stored using nonstandard conventions. Guided by the identified limitations, the DICOM PM standard has been amended to include coded terms for the relevant diffusion models. Open-source software has been developed to support conversion of site-specific formats into the standard representation.

An efficient numerical method for solving the Boltzmann equation in multidimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimarco, Giacomo; Loubère, Raphaël; Narski, Jacek; Rey, Thomas

2018-01-01

In this paper we deal with the extension of the Fast Kinetic Scheme (FKS) (Dimarco and Loubère, 2013 [26]) originally constructed for solving the BGK equation, to the more challenging case of the Boltzmann equation. The scheme combines a robust and fast method for treating the transport part based on an innovative Lagrangian technique supplemented with conservative fast spectral schemes to treat the collisional operator by means of an operator splitting approach. This approach along with several implementation features related to the parallelization of the algorithm permits to construct an efficient simulation tool which is numerically tested against exact and reference solutions on classical problems arising in rarefied gas dynamic. We present results up to the 3 D × 3 D case for unsteady flows for the Variable Hard Sphere model which may serve as benchmark for future comparisons between different numerical methods for solving the multidimensional Boltzmann equation. For this reason, we also provide for each problem studied details on the computational cost and memory consumption as well as comparisons with the BGK model or the limit model of compressible Euler equations.

Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal gender-structured model for hantavirus infection in rodents.

PubMed

Bürger, Raimund; Chowell, Gerardo; Gavilán, Elvis; Mulet, Pep; Villada, Luis M

2018-02-01

In this article we describe the transmission dynamics of hantavirus in rodents using a spatio-temporal susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model that distinguishes between male and female subpopulations [L.J.S. Allen, R.K. McCormack and C.B. Jonsson, Bull. Math. Biol. 68 (2006), 511--524]. Both subpopulations are assumed to differ in their movement with respect to local variations in the densities of their own and the opposite gender group. Three alternative models for the movement of the male individuals are examined. In some cases the movement is not only directed by the gradient of a density (as in the standard diffusive case), but also by a non-local convolution of density values as proposed, in another context, in [R.M. Colombo and E. Rossi, Commun. Math. Sci., 13 (2015), 369--400]. An efficient numerical method for the resulting convection-diffusion-reaction system of partial differential equations is proposed. This method involves techniques of weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) reconstructions in combination with implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta (IMEX-RK) methods for time stepping. The numerical results demonstrate significant differences in the spatio-temporal behavior predicted by the different models, which suggest future research directions.

Numerical Modeling of Electromagnetic Radiation Within a Particulate Medium.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noe Dobrea, E. Z.

2017-12-01

Numerical modeling of electromagnetic radiation with a particulate medium. Understanding the effect of particulate media and coatings on electromagnetic radiation is key to understanding the effects of multiple scattering on the spectra of geologic materials. Multiple radiative transfer theories have been developed that provide a good approximation to these effects [1,2]. However, approximations regarding particle size, distribution, shape, and other parameters need to be made and in some cases, the theory is limited to specific geometries [2]. In this work, we seek to develop an numerical radiative transfer algorithm to simulate the passage of light through a particulate medium. The code allows arbitrary particle size distributions (uniform, bimodal, trimodal, composition dependent), compositions, and viewing geometries, as well as arbitrary coating thicknesses and compositions. Here, we report on the the status of our model and present comparisons of model predictions with the spectra of well-characterize minerals and mixtures. Future work will include particle size-dependent effects of diffraction as well as particle emittance due to fluorescence and Raman excitation. [1] Hapke, B. (2012). Theory of reflectance and emittance spectroscopy. Cambridge University Press, 2nd edition, 528 p. [2] Shkuratov et al. (1999) Icarus 137

The Elastic Behaviour of Sintered Metallic Fibre Networks: A Finite Element Study by Beam Theory

PubMed Central

Bosbach, Wolfram A.

2015-01-01

Background The finite element method has complimented research in the field of network mechanics in the past years in numerous studies about various materials. Numerical predictions and the planning efficiency of experimental procedures are two of the motivational aspects for these numerical studies. The widespread availability of high performance computing facilities has been the enabler for the simulation of sufficiently large systems. Objectives and Motivation In the present study, finite element models were built for sintered, metallic fibre networks and validated by previously published experimental stiffness measurements. The validated models were the basis for predictions about so far unknown properties. Materials and Methods The finite element models were built by transferring previously published skeletons of fibre networks into finite element models. Beam theory was applied as simplification method. Results and Conclusions The obtained material stiffness isn’t a constant but rather a function of variables such as sample size and boundary conditions. Beam theory offers an efficient finite element method for the simulated fibre networks. The experimental results can be approximated by the simulated systems. Two worthwhile aspects for future work will be the influence of size and shape and the mechanical interaction with matrix materials. PMID:26569603

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Schmetterling, David A.; Guy, Chris S.; Shepard, Bradley B.; McFarland, Robert; Skaar, Donald

2012-01-01

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

Development of a Linearized Unsteady Euler Analysis with Application to Wake/Blade-Row Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verdon, Joseph M.; Montgomery, Matthew D.; Chuang, H. Andrew

1999-01-01

A three-dimensional, linearized, Euler analysis is being developed to provide a comprehensive and efficient unsteady aerodynamic analysis for predicting the aeroacoustic and aeroelastic responses of axial-flow turbomachinery blading. The mathematical models needed to describe nonlinear and linearized, inviscid, unsteady flows through a blade row operating within a cylindrical annular duct are presented in this report. A numerical model for linearized inviscid unsteady flows, which couples a near-field, implicit, wave-split, finite volume analysis to far-field eigen analyses, is also described. The linearized aerodynamic and numerical models have been implemented into the three-dimensional unsteady flow code, LINFLUX. This code is applied herein to predict unsteady subsonic flows driven by wake or vortical excitations. The intent is to validate the LINFLUX analysis via numerical results for simple benchmark unsteady flows and to demonstrate this analysis via application to a realistic wake/blade-row interaction. Detailed numerical results for a three-dimensional version of the 10th Standard Cascade and a fan exit guide vane indicate that LINFLUX is becoming a reliable and useful unsteady aerodynamic prediction capability that can be applied, in the future, to assess the three-dimensional flow physics important to blade-row, aeroacoustic and aeroelastic responses.

Supercomputers Of The Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Victor L.; Kim, John; Holst, Terry L.; Deiwert, George S.; Cooper, David M.; Watson, Andrew B.; Bailey, F. Ron

1992-01-01

Report evaluates supercomputer needs of five key disciplines: turbulence physics, aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics, chemistry, and mathematical modeling of human vision. Predicts these fields will require computer speed greater than 10(Sup 18) floating-point operations per second (FLOP's) and memory capacity greater than 10(Sup 15) words. Also, new parallel computer architectures and new structured numerical methods will make necessary speed and capacity available.

Bimolecular dynamics by computer analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eilbeck, J.C.; Lomdahl, P.S.; Scott, A.C.

1984-01-01

As numerical tools (computers and display equipment) become more powerful and the atomic structures of important biological molecules become known, the importance of detailed computation of nonequilibrium biomolecular dynamics increases. In this manuscript we report results from a well developed study of the hydrogen bonded polypeptide crystal acetanilide, a model protein. Directions for future research are suggested. 9 references, 6 figures.

A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.

2014-01-01

Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.

Analytical solutions for benchmarking cold regions subsurface water flow and energy transport models: one-dimensional soil thaw with conduction and advection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurylyk, Barret L.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M; MacQuarrie, Kerry T. B.; Voss, Clifford I.

2014-01-01

Numerous cold regions water flow and energy transport models have emerged in recent years. Dissimilarities often exist in their mathematical formulations and/or numerical solution techniques, but few analytical solutions exist for benchmarking flow and energy transport models that include pore water phase change. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Lunardini solution, an approximate analytical solution for predicting soil thawing subject to conduction, advection, and phase change. Fifteen thawing scenarios are examined by considering differences in porosity, surface temperature, Darcy velocity, and initial temperature. The accuracy of the Lunardini solution is shown to be proportional to the Stefan number. The analytical solution results obtained for soil thawing scenarios with water flow and advection are compared to those obtained from the finite element model SUTRA. Three problems, two involving the Lunardini solution and one involving the classic Neumann solution, are recommended as standard benchmarks for future model development and testing.

Temperature sensitivity of a numerical pollen forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheifinger, Helfried; Meran, Ingrid; Szabo, Barbara; Gallaun, Heinz; Natali, Stefano; Mantovani, Simone

2016-04-01

Allergic rhinitis has become a global health problem especially affecting children and adolescence. Timely and reliable warning before an increase of the atmospheric pollen concentration means a substantial support for physicians and allergy suffers. Recently developed numerical pollen forecast models have become means to support the pollen forecast service, which however still require refinement. One of the problem areas concerns the correct timing of the beginning and end of the flowering period of the species under consideration, which is identical with the period of possible pollen emission. Both are governed essentially by the temperature accumulated before the entry of flowering and during flowering. Phenological models are sensitive to a bias of the temperature. A mean bias of -1°C of the input temperature can shift the entry date of a phenological phase for about a week into the future. A bias of such an order of magnitude is still possible in case of numerical weather forecast models. If the assimilation of additional temperature information (e.g. ground measurements as well as satellite-retrieved air / surface temperature fields) is able to reduce such systematic temperature deviations, the precision of the timing of phenological entry dates might be enhanced. With a number of sensitivity experiments the effect of a possible temperature bias on the modelled phenology and the pollen concentration in the atmosphere is determined. The actual bias of the ECMWF IFS 2 m temperature will also be calculated and its effect on the numerical pollen forecast procedure presented.

Gravitational Waveforms in the Early Inspiral of Binary Black Hole Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkett, Kevin; Kumar, Prayush; Bhagwat, Swetha; Brown, Duncan; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Simulating eXtreme Spacetimes Collaboration

2015-04-01

The inspiral, merger and ringdown of compact object binaries are important targets for gravitational wave detection by aLIGO. Detection and parameter estimation will require long, accurate waveforms for comparison. There are a number of analytical models for generating gravitational waveforms for these systems, but the only way to ensure their consistency and correctness is by comparing with numerical relativity simulations that cover many inspiral orbits. We've simulated a number of binary black hole systems with mass ratio 7 and a moderate, aligned spin on the larger black hole. We have attached these numerical waveforms to analytical waveform models to generate long hybrid gravitational waveforms that span the entire aLIGO frequency band. We analyze the robustness of these hybrid waveforms and measure the faithfulness of different hybrids with each other to obtain an estimate on how long future numerical simulations need to be in order to ensure that waveforms are accurate enough for use by aLIGO.

A Direct Numerical Simulation of a Temporally Evolving Liquid-Gas Turbulent Mixing Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vu, Lam Xuan; Chiodi, Robert; Desjardins, Olivier

2017-11-01

Air-blast atomization occurs when streams of co-flowing high speed gas and low speed liquid shear to form drops. Air-blast atomization has numerous industrial applications from combustion engines in jets to sprays used for medical coatings. The high Reynolds number and dynamic pressure ratio of a realistic air-blast atomization case requires large eddy simulation and the use of multiphase sub-grid scale (SGS) models. A direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a temporally evolving mixing layer is presented to be used as a base case from which future multiphase SGS models can be developed. To construct the liquid-gas mixing layer, half of a channel flow from Kim et al. (JFM, 1987) is placed on top of a static liquid layer that then evolves over time. The DNS is performed using a conservative finite volume incompressible multiphase flow solver where phase tracking is handled with a discretely conservative volume of fluid method. This study presents statistics on velocity and volume fraction at different Reynolds and Weber numbers.

Development of numerical techniques for simulation of magnetogasdynamics and hypersonic chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damevin, Henri-Marie

Magnetogasdynamics, the science concerned with the mutual interaction between electromagnetic field and flow of electrically conducting gas, offers promising advances in flow control and propulsion of future hypersonic vehicles. Numerical simulations are essential for understanding phenomena, and for research and development. The current dissertation is devoted to the development and validation of numerical algorithms for the solution of multidimensional magnetogasdynamic equations and the simulation of hypersonic high-temperature effects. Governing equations are derived, based on classical magnetogasdynamic assumptions. Two sets of equations are considered, namely the full equations and equations in the low magnetic Reynolds number approximation. Equations are expressed in a suitable formulation for discretization by finite differences in a computational space. For the full equations, Gauss law for magnetism is enforced using Powell's methodology. The time integration method is a four-stage modified Runge-Kutta scheme, amended with a Total Variation Diminishing model in a postprocessing stage. The eigensystem, required for the Total Variation Diminishing scheme, is derived in generalized three-dimensional coordinate system. For the simulation of hypersonic high-temperature effects, two chemical models are utilized, namely a nonequilibrium model and an equilibrium model. A loosely coupled approach is implemented to communicate between the magnetogasdynamic equations and the chemical models. The nonequilibrium model is a one-temperature, five-species, seventeen-reaction model solved by an implicit flux-vector splitting scheme. The chemical equilibrium model computes thermodynamics properties using curve fit procedures. Selected results are provided, which explore the different features of the numerical algorithms. The shock-capturing properties are validated for shock-tube simulations using numerical solutions reported in the literature. The computations of superfast flows over corners and in convergent channels demonstrate the performances of the algorithm in multiple dimensions. The implementation of diffusion terms is validated by solving the magnetic Rayleigh problem and Hartmann problem, for which analytical solutions are available. Prediction of blunt-body type flow are investigated and compared with numerical solutions reported in the literature. The effectiveness of the chemical models for hypersonic flow over blunt body is examined in various flow conditions. It is shown that the proposed schemes perform well in a variety of test cases, though some limitations have been identified.

Modeling of Greenland outlet glaciers response to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, J.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) quadrupled, resulting in 25% of the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Increased mass loss of the GIS is caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and by increased subglacial, meltwater discharge. Yet, ice-ocean processes are not properly represented in contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet models used to project future changes in the GIS. In this work, we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional (depth- and width- integrated) ice flow model for several representative outlet glaciers in Greenland. We investigate the dynamic response of the coupled ice-flow plume model to scenarios of future climate change. In particular, we examine the transient response of the outlet glaciers to projected changes in surface melting, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge. With our modeling approach we quantify the amount of the surface and submarine melting and the resulting retreat and mass loss for each individual glacier for the next 100 years.

Contribution of explosion and future collision fragments to the orbital debris environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, S.-Y.; Kessler, D. J.

1985-01-01

The time evolution of the near-earth man-made orbital debris environment modeled by numerical simulation is presented in this paper. The model starts with a data base of orbital debris objects which are tracked by the NORAD ground radar system. The current untrackable small objects are assumed to result from explosions and are predicted from data collected from a ground explosion experiment. Future collisions between earth orbiting objects are handled by the Monte Carlo method to simulate the range of collision possibilities that may occur in the real world. The collision fragmentation process between debris objects is calculated using an empirical formula derived from a laboratory spacecraft impact experiment to obtain the number versus size distribution of the newly generated debris population. The evolution of the future space debris environment is compared with the natural meteoroid background for the relative spacecraft penetration hazard.

Numerical tension adjustment of x-ray membrane to represent goat skin kompang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siswanto, Waluyo Adi; Abdullah, Muhammad Syiddiq Bin

2017-04-01

This paper presents a numerical membrane model of traditional musical instrument kompang that will be used to find the parameter of membrane tension of x-ray membrane representing the classical goat-skin membrane of kompang. In this study, the experiment towards the kompang is first conducted in an acoustical anechoic enclosure and in parallel a mathematical model of the kompang membrane is developed to simulate the vibration of the kompang membrane in polar coordinate by implementing Fourier-Bessel wave function. The wave equation in polar direction in mode 0,1 is applied to provide the corresponding natural frequencies of the circular membrane. The value of initial and boundary conditions in the function is determined from experiment to allow the correct development of numerical equation. The numerical mathematical model is coded in SMath for the accurate numerical analysis as well as the plotting tool. Two kompang membrane cases with different membrane materials, i.e. goat skin and x-ray film membranes with fixed radius of 0.1 m are used in the experiment. An alternative of kompang's membrane made of x-ray film with the appropriate tension setting can be used to represent the sound of traditional goat-skin kompang. The tension setting of the membrane to resemble the goat-skin is 24N. An effective numerical tool has been develop to help kompang maker to set the tension of x-ray membrane. In the future application, any tradional kompang with different size can be replaced by another membrane material if the tension is set to the correct tension value. The developed numerical tool is useful and handy to calculate the tension of the alternative membrane material.

Numerical Tension Adjustment of X-Ray Membrane to Represent Goat Skin Kompang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syiddiq, M.; Siswanto, W. A.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a numerical membrane model of traditional musical instrument kompang that will be used to find the parameter of membrane tension of x-ray membrane representing the classical goat-skin membrane of kompang. In this study, the experiment towards the kompang is first conducted in an acoustical anechoic enclosure and in parallel a mathematical model of the kompang membrane is developed to simulate the vibration of the kompang membrane in polar coordinate by implementing Fourier-Bessel wave function. The wave equation in polar direction in mode 0,1 is applied to provide the corresponding natural frequencies of the circular membrane. The value of initial and boundary conditions in the function is determined from experiment to allow the correct development of numerical equation. The numerical mathematical model is coded in SMath for the accurate numerical analysis as well as the plotting tool. Two kompang membrane cases with different membrane materials, i.e. goat skin and x-ray film membranes with fixed radius of 0.1 m are used in the experiment. An alternative of kompang’s membrane made of x-ray film with the appropriate tension setting can be used to represent the sound of traditional goat-skin kompang. The tension setting of the membrane to resemble the goat-skin is 24N. An effective numerical tool has been used to help kompang maker to set the tension of x-ray membrane. In the future application, any traditional kompang with different size can be replaced by another membrane material if the tension is set to the correct tension value. The numerical tool used is useful and handy to calculate the tension of the alternative membrane material.

Long Term Analysis of Deformations in Salt Mines: Kłodawa Salt Mine Case Study, Central Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cała, Marek; Tajduś, Antoni; Andrusikiewicz, Wacław; Kowalski, Michał; Kolano, Malwina; Stopkowicz, Agnieszka; Cyran, Katarzyna; Jakóbczyk, Joanna

2017-09-01

Located in central Poland, the Kłodawa salt dome is 26 km long and about 2 km wide. Exploitation of the dome started in 1956, currently rock salt extraction is carried out in 7 mining fields and the 12 mining levels at the depth from 322 to 625 meters below sea level (m.b.s.l.). It is planned to maintain the mining activity till 2052 and extend rock salt extraction to deeper levels. The dome is characterised by complex geological structure resulted from halokinetic and tectonic processes. Projection of the 3D numerical analysis took into account the following factors: mine working distribution within the Kłodawa mine (about 1000 rooms, 350 km of galleries), complex geological structure of the salt dome, complicated structure and geometry of mine workings and distinction in rocks mechanical properties e.g. rock salt and anhydrite. Analysis of past mine workings deformation and prediction of future rock mass behaviour was divided into four stages: building of the 3D model (state of mine workings in year 2014), model extension of the future mine workings planned for extraction in years 2015-2052, the 3D model calibration and stability analysis of all mine workings. The 3D numerical model of Kłodawa salt mine included extracted and planned mine workings in 7 mining fields and 14 mining levels (about 2000 mine workings). The dimensions of the model were 4200 m × 4700 m × 1200 m what was simulated by 33 million elements. The 3D model was calibrated on the grounds of convergence measurements and laboratory tests. Stability assessment of mine workings was based on analysis of the strength/stress ratio and vertical stress. The strength/stress ratio analysis enabled to indicate endangered area in mine workings and can be defined as the factor of safety. Mine workings in state close to collapse are indicated by the strength/stress ratio equals 1. Analysis of the vertical stress in mine workings produced the estimation of current state of stress in comparison to initial (pre-mining) conditions. The long-term deformation analysis of the Kłodawa salt mine for year 2014 revealed that stability conditions were fulfilled. Local disturbances indicated in the numerical analysis were connected with high chambers included in the mining field no 1 and complex geological structure in the vicinity of mine workings located in the mining fields no 2 and 3. Moreover, numerical simulations that projected the future extraction progress (till year 2052) showed positive performance. Local weakness zones in the mining field no 7 are associated with occurrence of carnallite layers and intensive mining which are planned in the mining field no 6 at the end of rock salt extraction.

Transient Mathematical Modeling for Liquid Rocket Engine Systems: Methods, Capabilities, and Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seymour, David C.; Martin, Michael A.; Nguyen, Huy H.; Greene, William D.

2005-01-01

The subject of mathematical modeling of the transient operation of liquid rocket engines is presented in overview form from the perspective of engineers working at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The necessity of creating and utilizing accurate mathematical models as part of liquid rocket engine development process has become well established and is likely to increase in importance in the future. The issues of design considerations for transient operation, development testing, and failure scenario simulation are discussed. An overview of the derivation of the basic governing equations is presented along with a discussion of computational and numerical issues associated with the implementation of these equations in computer codes. Also, work in the field of generating usable fluid property tables is presented along with an overview of efforts to be undertaken in the future to improve the tools use for the mathematical modeling process.

Transient Mathematical Modeling for Liquid Rocket Engine Systems: Methods, Capabilities, and Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Michael A.; Nguyen, Huy H.; Greene, William D.; Seymout, David C.

2003-01-01

The subject of mathematical modeling of the transient operation of liquid rocket engines is presented in overview form from the perspective of engineers working at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The necessity of creating and utilizing accurate mathematical models as part of liquid rocket engine development process has become well established and is likely to increase in importance in the future. The issues of design considerations for transient operation, development testing, and failure scenario simulation are discussed. An overview of the derivation of the basic governing equations is presented along with a discussion of computational and numerical issues associated with the implementation of these equations in computer codes. Also, work in the field of generating usable fluid property tables is presented along with an overview of efforts to be undertaken in the future to improve the tools use for the mathematical modeling process.

Time domain simulation of novel photovoltaic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Haejun

Thin-film silicon-based solar cells have operated far from the Shockley- Queisser limit in all experiments to date. Novel light-trapping structures, however, may help address this limitation. Finite-difference time domain simulation methods offer the potential to accurately determine the light-trapping potential of arbitrary dielectric structures, but suffer from materials modeling problems. In this thesis, existing dispersion models for novel photovoltaic materials will be reviewed, and a novel dispersion model, known as the quadratic complex rational function (QCRF), will be proposed. It has the advantage of accurately fitting experimental semiconductor dielectric values over a wide bandwidth in a numerically stable fashion. Applying the proposed dispersion model, a statistically correlated surface texturing method will be suggested, and light absorption rates of it will be explained. In future work, these designs will be combined with other structures and optimized to help guide future experiments.

Simulation of two-dimensional turbulent flows in a rotating annulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storey, Brian D.

2004-05-01

Rotating water tank experiments have been used to study fundamental processes of atmospheric and geophysical turbulence in a controlled laboratory setting. When these tanks are undergoing strong rotation the forced turbulent flow becomes highly two dimensional along the axis of rotation. An efficient numerical method has been developed for simulating the forced quasi-geostrophic equations in an annular geometry to model current laboratory experiments. The algorithm employs a spectral method with Fourier series and Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions. The algorithm has been implemented on a parallel architecture to allow modelling of a wide range of spatial scales over long integration times. This paper describes the derivation of the model equations, numerical method, testing and performance of the algorithm. Results provide reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that such computations can be used as a predictive tool to design future experiments.

Effects of Variable Inflationary Conditions on AN Inventory Model with Inflation-Proportional Demand Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzazadeh, Abolfazl

2009-08-01

The inflation rate in the most of the previous researches has been considered constant and well-known over the time horizon, although the future rate of inflation is inherently uncertain and unstable, and is difficult to predict it accurately. Therefore, A time varying inventory model for deteriorating items with allowable shortages is developed in this paper. The inflation rates (internal and external) are time-dependent and demand rate is inflation-proportional. The inventory level is described by differential equations over the time horizon and present value method is used. The numerical example is given to explain the results. Some particular cases, which follow the main problem, will discuss and the results will compare with the main model by using the numerical examples. It has been achieved which shortages increases considerably in comparison with the case of without variable inflationary conditions.

Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 1. Effect of microgravity-induced biochemical alterations.

PubMed

Kassemi, Mohammad; Thompson, David

2016-09-01

An analytical Population Balance Equation model is developed and used to assess the risk of critical renal stone formation for astronauts during future space missions. The model uses the renal biochemical profile of the subject as input and predicts the steady-state size distribution of the nucleating, growing, and agglomerating calcium oxalate crystals during their transit through the kidney. The model is verified through comparison with published results of several crystallization experiments. Numerical results indicate that the model is successful in clearly distinguishing between 1-G normal and 1-G recurrent stone-former subjects based solely on their published 24-h urine biochemical profiles. Numerical case studies further show that the predicted renal calculi size distribution for a microgravity astronaut is closer to that of a recurrent stone former on Earth rather than to a normal subject in 1 G. This interestingly implies that the increase in renal stone risk level in microgravity is relatively more significant for a normal person than a stone former. However, numerical predictions still underscore that the stone-former subject carries by far the highest absolute risk of critical stone formation during space travel. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Numerical simulations of an advection fog event over Shanghai Pudong International Airport with the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Caiyan; Zhang, Zhongfeng; Pu, Zhaoxia; Wang, Fengyun

2017-10-01

A series of numerical simulations is conducted to understand the formation, evolution, and dissipation of an advection fog event over Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the current operational settings at the Meteorological Center of East China Air Traffic Management Bureau, the WRF model successfully predicts the fog event at ZSPD. Additional numerical experiments are performed to examine the physical processes associated with the fog event. The results indicate that prediction of this particular fog event is sensitive to microphysical schemes for the time of fog dissipation but not for the time of fog onset. The simulated timing of the arrival and dissipation of the fog, as well as the cloud distribution, is substantially sensitive to the planetary boundary layer and radiation (both longwave and shortwave) processes. Moreover, varying forecast lead times also produces different simulation results for the fog event regarding its onset and duration, suggesting a trade-off between more accurate initial conditions and a proper forecast lead time that allows model physical processes to spin up adequately during the fog simulation. The overall outcomes from this study imply that the complexity of physical processes and their interactions within the WRF model during fog evolution and dissipation is a key area of future research.

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique

PubMed Central

Hayford, Sarah R.; Agadjanian, Victor

2012-01-01

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of “don’t know” or “up to God” as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related. PMID:26430294

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique.

PubMed

Hayford, Sarah R; Agadjanian, Victor

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of "don't know" or "up to God" as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related.

Foundations of children's numerical and mathematical skills: the roles of symbolic and nonsymbolic representations of numerical magnitude.

PubMed

Lyons, Ian M; Ansari, Daniel

2015-01-01

Numerical and mathematical skills are critical predictors of academic success. The last three decades have seen a substantial growth in our understanding of how the human mind and brain represent and process numbers. In particular, research has shown that we share with animals the ability to represent numerical magnitude (the total number of items in a set) and that preverbal infants can process numerical magnitude. Further research has shown that similar processing signatures characterize numerical magnitude processing across species and developmental time. These findings suggest that an approximate system for nonsymbolic (e.g., dot arrays) numerical magnitude representation serves as the basis for the acquisition of cultural, symbolic (e.g., Arabic numerals) representations of numerical magnitude. This chapter explores this hypothesis by reviewing studies that have examined the relation between individual differences in nonsymbolic numerical magnitude processing and symbolic math abilities (e.g., arithmetic). Furthermore, we examine the extent to which the available literature provides strong evidence for a link between symbolic and nonsymbolic representations of numerical magnitude at the behavioral and neural levels of analysis. We conclude that claims that symbolic number abilities are grounded in the approximate system for the nonsymbolic representation of numerical magnitude are not strongly supported by the available evidence. Alternative models and future research directions are discussed. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical investigation of the effects of channel geometry on platelet activation and blood damage.

PubMed

Wu, Jingshu; Yun, B Min; Fallon, Anna M; Hanson, Stephen R; Aidun, Cyrus K; Yoganathan, Ajit P

2011-02-01

Thromboembolic complications in Bileaflet mechanical heart valves (BMHVs) are believed to be due to the combination of high shear stresses and large recirculation regions. Relating blood damage to design geometry is therefore essential to ultimately optimize the design of BMHVs. The aim of this research is to quantitatively study the effect of 3D channel geometry on shear-induced platelet activation and aggregation, and to choose an appropriate blood damage index (BDI) model for future numerical simulations. The simulations in this study use a recently developed lattice-Boltzmann with external boundary force (LBM-EBF) method [Wu, J., and C. K. Aidun. Int. J. Numer. Method Fluids 62(7):765-783, 2010; Wu, J., and C. K. Aidun. Int. J. Multiphase flow 36:202-209, 2010]. The channel geometries and flow conditions are re-constructed from recent experiments by Fallon [The Development of a Novel in vitro Flow System to Evaluate Platelet Activation and Procoagulant Potential Induced by Bileaflet Mechanical Heart Valve Leakage Jets in School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering. Atlanta: Georgia Institute of Technology] and Fallon et al. [Ann. Biomed. Eng. 36(1):1]. The fluid flow is computed on a fixed regular 'lattice' using the LBM, and each platelet is mapped onto a Lagrangian frame moving continuously throughout the fluid domain. The two-way fluid-solid interactions are determined by the EBF method by enforcing a no-slip condition on the platelet surface. The motion and orientation of the platelet are obtained from Newtonian dynamics equations. The numerical results show that sharp corners or sudden shape transitions will increase blood damage. Fallon's experimental results were used as a basis for choosing the appropriate BDI model for use in future computational simulations of flow through BMHVs.

An Initial Multi-Domain Modeling of an Actively Cooled Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinthorsson, Erlendur

1997-01-01

A methodology for the simulation of turbine cooling flows is being developed. The methodology seeks to combine numerical techniques that optimize both accuracy and computational efficiency. Key components of the methodology include the use of multiblock grid systems for modeling complex geometries, and multigrid convergence acceleration for enhancing computational efficiency in highly resolved fluid flow simulations. The use of the methodology has been demonstrated in several turbo machinery flow and heat transfer studies. Ongoing and future work involves implementing additional turbulence models, improving computational efficiency, adding AMR.

Multidimensional Simulation Applied to Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camara, A. S.; Ferreira, F. C.; Loucks, D. P.; Seixas, M. J.

1990-09-01

A framework for an integrated decision aiding simulation (IDEAS) methodology using numerical, linguistic, and pictorial entities and operations is introduced. IDEAS relies upon traditional numerical formulations, logical rules to handle linguistic entities with linguistic values, and a set of pictorial operations. Pictorial entities are defined by their shape, size, color, and position. Pictorial operators include reproduction (copy of a pictorial entity), mutation (expansion, rotation, translation, change in color), fertile encounters (intersection, reunion), and sterile encounters (absorption). Interaction between numerical, linguistic, and pictorial entities is handled through logical rules or a simplified vector calculus operation. This approach is shown to be applicable to various environmental and water resources management analyses using a model to assess the impacts of an oil spill. Future developments, including IDEAS implementation on parallel processing machines, are also discussed.

Modelisation de materiaux composites adaptatifs munis d'actionneurs en alliage a memoire de forme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simoneau, Charles

Technological development of structures having the capabilities to adapt themselves to different operating conditions is increasing in many areas of research such as aerospace. In fact, numerous works are now oriented toward the design of adaptive aircraft wings where the goal is to enhance the aerodynamic properties of the wing. Following this approach, the work realised in the framework of this master thesis presents the steps leading to the creation of a numerical model that can be used to predict the behavior of an adaptive panel, and therefore, eventually of an adaptive aircraft wing. Foremost, the adaptive panel of this project has been designed from a carbon-epoxy composite, acting as host structure, where shape memory alloy (SMA) wires, acting as actuators, have been inserted in it. SMA actuators have also been embedded asymmetrically along the direction of the panel thickness in order to generate a bending moment when the SMA wires are activated. To achieve the modeling of such structure it has been firstly shown that a numerical model composed of only solid finite elements could be used to represent the panel. However, a second numerical model composed of shell, beam and link finite elements showed that identical results can be obtained with much less nodes (the first model was composed of more than 300 000 nodes compared with 1 000 nodes for the second). The combination of shell-beam-link elements has then been chosen. Secondly, a constitutive relation had to be used for modeling the particular behavior of SMA. For the present work, a uniaxial version of the Likhachev's model is used. Due to its fairly straightforward mathematical formulation, this material law is able to model the main functional properties of SMA including the two-way shape memory effect (TWSME) at zero stress obtained after a thermomechanical education treatment. The last step was to compare the results of the numerical simulations with those obtained with a prototype where 19 actuators were embedded in a composite panel of 425 mm x 425 mm. Various load cases were performed. However, during experimental tests, it has been found that the measured actuator temperature was systematically underestimated. Therefore, by comparing the radius of curvature (rho) of the panel as a function of the activation temperature (T) of the actuators, an offset (in temperature) between the curves numerically and experimentally obtained is observable. Aside from this technological difficulty, the experimental and numerical results are very similar and therefore, this numerical model can be used for predicting the behavior of an adaptive panel. In addition, one the main advantages of this numerical model resides in its versatility where it has been shown that a "warping" of the panel could be realized by controlling independently each actuator. Future works should now obviously focus on the temperature measurement while considering the improvement of the numerical model and the possibility to model an initially curved adaptive panel whose form could resemble an aircraft wing.

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Major challenges for correlational ecological niche model projections to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Cobos, Marlon E; Jiménez-García, Daniel

2018-06-20

Species-level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future-climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species' geographic distributions. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

A thermal vacuum test optimization procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kruger, R.; Norris, H. P.

1979-01-01

An analytical model was developed that can be used to establish certain parameters of a thermal vacuum environmental test program based on an optimization of program costs. This model is in the form of a computer program that interacts with a user insofar as the input of certain parameters. The program provides the user a list of pertinent information regarding an optimized test program and graphs of some of the parameters. The model is a first attempt in this area and includes numerous simplifications. The model appears useful as a general guide and provides a way for extrapolating past performance to future missions.

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

Limitations to the use of two-dimensional thermal modeling of a nuclear waste repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, B.W.

1979-01-04

Thermal modeling of a nuclear waste repository is basic to most waste management predictive models. It is important that the modeling techniques accurately determine the time-dependent temperature distribution of the waste emplacement media. Recent modeling studies show that the time-dependent temperature distribution can be accurately modeled in the far-field using a 2-dimensional (2-D) planar numerical model; however, the near-field cannot be modeled accurately enough by either 2-D axisymmetric or 2-D planar numerical models for repositories in salt. The accuracy limits of 2-D modeling were defined by comparing results from 3-dimensional (3-D) TRUMP modeling with results from both 2-D axisymmetric andmore » 2-D planar. Both TRUMP and ADINAT were employed as modeling tools. Two-dimensional results from the finite element code, ADINAT were compared with 2-D results from the finite difference code, TRUMP; they showed almost perfect correspondence in the far-field. This result adds substantially to confidence in future use of ADINAT and its companion stress code ADINA for thermal stress analysis. ADINAT was found to be somewhat sensitive to time step and mesh aspect ratio. 13 figures, 4 tables.« less

Three-dimensional numerical investigation of the separation process in a vortex tube at different operating conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafiee, Seyed Ehsan; Sadeghiazad, M. M.

2016-06-01

Air separators provide safe, clean, and appropriate air flow to engines and are widely used in vehicles with large engines such as ships and submarines. In this operational study, the separation process inside a Ranque-Hilsch vortex tube cleaning (cooling) system is investigated to analyze the impact of the operating gas type on the vortex tube performance; the operating gases used are air, nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. The computational fluid dynamic model used is equipped with a three-dimensional structure, and the steady-state condition is applied during computations. The standard k-ɛ turbulence model is employed to resolve nonlinear flow equations, and various key parameters, such as hot and cold exhaust thermal drops, and power separation rates, are described numerically. The results show that nitrogen dioxide creates the greatest separation power out of all gases tested, and the numerical results are validated by good agreement with available experimental data. In addition, a comparison is made between the use of two different boundary conditions, the pressure-far-field and the pressure-outlet, when analyzing complex turbulent flows inside the air separators. Results present a comprehensive and practical solution for use in future numerical studies.

Reconstructing population exposures to environmental chemicals from biomarkers: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Georgopoulos, Panos G; Sasso, Alan F; Isukapalli, Sastry S; Lioy, Paul J; Vallero, Daniel A; Okino, Miles; Reiter, Larry

2009-02-01

A conceptual/computational framework for exposure reconstruction from biomarker data combined with auxiliary exposure-related data is presented, evaluated with example applications, and examined in the context of future needs and opportunities. This framework employs physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) modeling in conjunction with numerical "inversion" techniques. To quantify the value of different types of exposure data "accompanying" biomarker data, a study was conducted focusing on reconstructing exposures to chlorpyrifos, from measurements of its metabolite levels in urine. The study employed biomarker data as well as supporting exposure-related information from the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS), Maryland, while the MENTOR-3P system (Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk with Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic modeling for Populations) was used for PBTK modeling. Recently proposed, simple numerical reconstruction methods were applied in this study, in conjunction with PBTK models. Two types of reconstructions were studied using (a) just the available biomarker and supporting exposure data and (b) synthetic data developed via augmenting available observations. Reconstruction using only available data resulted in a wide range of variation in estimated exposures. Reconstruction using synthetic data facilitated evaluation of numerical inversion methods and characterization of the value of additional information, such as study-specific data that can be collected in conjunction with the biomarker data. Although the NHEXAS data set provides a significant amount of supporting exposure-related information, especially when compared to national studies such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), this information is still not adequate for detailed reconstruction of exposures under several conditions, as demonstrated here. The analysis presented here provides a starting point for introducing improved designs for future biomonitoring studies, from the perspective of exposure reconstruction; identifies specific limitations in existing exposure reconstruction methods that can be applied to population biomarker data; and suggests potential approaches for addressing exposure reconstruction from such data.

Estimating Natural Recharge in a Desert Environment Facing Increasing Ground-Water Demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishikawa, T.; Izbicki, J. A.; Hevesi, J. A.; Martin, P.

2004-12-01

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin in the southern Mojave Desert. Joshua Basin Water District (JBWD) supplies water to the community from the underlying Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin, and ground-water withdrawals averaging about 960 acre-ft/yr have resulted in as much as 35 ft of drawdown. As growth continues in the desert, ground-water resources may need to be supplemented using imported water. To help meet future demands, JBWD plans to construct production wells in the adjacent Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin. To manage the ground-water resources and to identify future mitigating measures, a thorough understanding of the ground-water system is needed. To this end, field and numerical techniques were applied to determine the distribution and quantity of natural recharge. Field techniques included the installation of instrumented boreholes in selected washes and at a nearby control site. Numerical techniques included the use of a distributed-parameter watershed model and a ground-water flow model. The results from the field techniques indicated that as much as 70 acre-ft/yr of water infiltrated downward through the two principal washes during the study period (2001-3). The results from the watershed model indicated that the average annual recharge in the ground-water subbasins is about 160 acre-ft/yr. The results from the calibrated ground-water flow model indicated that the average annual recharge for the same area is about 125 acre-ft/yr. Although the field and numerical techniques were applied to different scales (local vs. large), all indicate that natural recharge in the Joshua Tree area is very limited; therefore, careful management of the limited ground-water resources is needed. Moreover, the calibrated model can now be used to estimate the effects of different water-management strategies on the ground-water subbasins.

Performance and Mass Modeling Subtleties in Closed-Brayton-Cycle Space Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Michael J.; Johnson, Paul K.

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: 1. Closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) thermal energy conversion is one available option for future spacecraft and surface systems. 2. Brayton system conceptual designs for milliwatt to megawatt power converters have been developed 3. Numerous features affect overall optimized power conversion system performance: Turbomachinery efficiency. Heat exchanger effectiveness. Working-fluid composition. Cycle temperatures and pressures.

Uncertainty Analysis of OC5-DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Offshore Wind Test Campaign

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N

This paper examines how to assess the uncertainty levels for test measurements of the Offshore Code Comparison, Continued, with Correlation (OC5)-DeepCwind floating offshore wind system, examined within the OC5 project. The goal of the OC5 project was to validate the accuracy of ultimate and fatigue load estimates from a numerical model of the floating semisubmersible using data measured during scaled tank testing of the system under wind and wave loading. The examination of uncertainty was done after the test, and it was found that the limited amount of data available did not allow for an acceptable uncertainty assessment. Therefore, thismore » paper instead qualitatively examines the sources of uncertainty associated with this test to start a discussion of how to assess uncertainty for these types of experiments and to summarize what should be done during future testing to acquire the information needed for a proper uncertainty assessment. Foremost, future validation campaigns should initiate numerical modeling before testing to guide the test campaign, which should include a rigorous assessment of uncertainty, and perform validation during testing to ensure that the tests address all of the validation needs.« less

Uncertainty Analysis of OC5-DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Offshore Wind Test Campaign: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N

This paper examines how to assess the uncertainty levels for test measurements of the Offshore Code Comparison, Continued, with Correlation (OC5)-DeepCwind floating offshore wind system, examined within the OC5 project. The goal of the OC5 project was to validate the accuracy of ultimate and fatigue load estimates from a numerical model of the floating semisubmersible using data measured during scaled tank testing of the system under wind and wave loading. The examination of uncertainty was done after the test, and it was found that the limited amount of data available did not allow for an acceptable uncertainty assessment. Therefore, thismore » paper instead qualitatively examines the sources of uncertainty associated with this test to start a discussion of how to assess uncertainty for these types of experiments and to summarize what should be done during future testing to acquire the information needed for a proper uncertainty assessment. Foremost, future validation campaigns should initiate numerical modeling before testing to guide the test campaign, which should include a rigorous assessment of uncertainty, and perform validation during testing to ensure that the tests address all of the validation needs.« less

Nonlinear Constitutive Relations for High Temperature Application, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications were discussed. The state of the art in nonlinear constitutive modeling of high temperature materials was reviewed and the need for future research and development efforts in this area was identified. Considerable research efforts are urgently needed in the development of nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications prompted by recent advances in high temperature materials technology and new demands on material and component performance. Topics discussed include: constitutive modeling, numerical methods, material testing, and structural applications.

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

Development Of Maneuvering Autopilot For Flight Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, P. K. A.; Walker, R. A.

1992-01-01

Report describes recent efforts to develop automatic control system operating under supervision of pilot and making airplane follow prescribed trajectories during flight tests. Report represents additional progress on this project. Gives background information on technology of control of test-flight trajectories; presents mathematical models of airframe, engine and command-augmentation system; focuses on mathematical modeling of maneuvers; addresses design of autopilots for maneuvers; discusses numerical simulation and evaluation of results of simulation of eight maneuvers under control of simulated autopilot; and presents summary and discussion of future work.

Simulation of energy buildups in solid-state regenerative amplifiers for 2-μm emitting lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springer, Ramon; Alexeev, Ilya; Heberle, Johannes; Pflaum, Christoph

2018-02-01

A numerical model for solid-state regenerative amplifiers is presented, which is able to precisely simulate the quantitative energy buildup of stretched femtosecond pulses over passed roundtrips in the cavity. In detail, this model is experimentally validated with a Ti:Sapphire regenerative amplifier. Additionally, the simulation of a Ho:YAG based regenerative amplifier is conducted and compared to experimental data from literature. Furthermore, a bifurcation study of the investigated Ho:YAG system is performed, which leads to the identification of stable and instable operation regimes. The presented numerical model exhibits a well agreement to the experimental results from the Ti:Sapphire regenerative amplifier. Also, the gained pulse energy from the Ho:YAG system could be approximated closely, while the mismatch is explained with the monochromatic calculation of pulse amplification. Since the model is applicable to other solid-state gain media, it allows for the efficient design of future amplification systems based on regenerative amplification.

Numerical modeling of subsurface radioactive solute transport from waste seepage ponds at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, John B.

1976-01-01

Aqueous chemical and low-level radioactive effluents have been disposed to seepage ponds since 1952 at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The solutions percolate toward the Snake River Plain aquifer (135 m below) through interlayered basalts and unconsolidated sediments and an extensive zone of ground water perched on a sedimentary layer about 40 m beneath the ponds. A three-segment numerical model was developed to simulate the system, including effects of convection, hydrodynamic dispersion, radioactive decay, and adsorption. Simulated hydraulics and solute migration patterns for all segments agree adequately with the available field data. The model can be used to project subsurface distributions of waste solutes under a variety of assumed conditions for the future. Although chloride and tritium reached the aquifer several years ago, the model analysis suggests that the more easily sorbed solutes, such as cesium-137 and strontium-90, would not reach the aquifer in detectable concentrations within 150 years for the conditions assumed. (Woodard-USGS)

Antarctic glacial history from numerical models and continental margin sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, P.F.; Barrett, P.J.; Cooper, A. K.; Huybrechts, P.

1999-01-01

The climate record of glacially transported sediments in prograded wedges around the Antarctic outer continental shelf, and their derivatives in continental rise drifts, may be combined to produce an Antarctic ice sheet history, using numerical models of ice sheet response to temperature and sea-level change. Examination of published models suggests several preliminary conclusions about ice sheet history. The ice sheet's present high sensitivity to sea-level change at short (orbital) periods was developed gradually as its size increased, replacing a declining sensitivity to temperature. Models suggest that the ice sheet grew abruptly to 40% (or possibly more) of its present size at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, mainly as a result of its own temperature sensitivity. A large but more gradual middle Miocene change was externally driven, probably by development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Polar Front, provided that a few million years' delay can be explained. The Oligocene ice sheet varied considerably in size and areal extent, but the late Miocene ice sheet was more stable, though significantly warmer than today's. This difference probably relates to the confining effect of the Antarctic continental margin. Present-day numerical models of ice sheet development are sufficient to guide current sampling plans, but sea-ice formation, polar wander, basal topography and ice streaming can be identified as factors meriting additional modelling effort in the future.

Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1986-01-01

Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

Ongoing Fixed Wing Research within the NASA Langley Aeroelasticity Branch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert; Chwalowski, Pawel; Funk, Christie; Heeg, Jennifer; Hur, Jiyoung; Sanetrik, Mark; Scott, Robert; Silva, Walter; Stanford, Bret; Wiseman, Carol

2015-01-01

The NASA Langley Aeroelasticity Branch is involved in a number of research programs related to fixed wing aeroelasticity and aeroservoelasticity. These ongoing efforts are summarized here, and include aeroelastic tailoring of subsonic transport wing structures, experimental and numerical assessment of truss-braced wing flutter and limit cycle oscillations, and numerical modeling of high speed civil transport configurations. Efforts devoted to verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of aeroelastic physics in a workshop setting are also discussed. The feasibility of certain future civil transport configurations will depend on the ability to understand and control complex aeroelastic phenomena, a goal that the Aeroelasticity Branch is well-positioned to contribute through these programs.

Applications of Analytical Self-Similar Solutions of Reynolds-Averaged Models for Instability-Induced Turbulent Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartland, Tucker; Schilling, Oleg

2017-11-01

Analytical self-similar solutions to several families of single- and two-scale, eddy viscosity and Reynolds stress turbulence models are presented for Rayleigh-Taylor, Richtmyer-Meshkov, and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability-induced turbulent mixing. The use of algebraic relationships between model coefficients and physical observables (e.g., experimental growth rates) following from the self-similar solutions to calibrate a member of a given family of turbulence models is shown. It is demonstrated numerically that the algebraic relations accurately predict the value and variation of physical outputs of a Reynolds-averaged simulation in flow regimes that are consistent with the simplifying assumptions used to derive the solutions. The use of experimental and numerical simulation data on Reynolds stress anisotropy ratios to calibrate a Reynolds stress model is briefly illustrated. The implications of the analytical solutions for future Reynolds-averaged modeling of hydrodynamic instability-induced mixing are briefly discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Slab stagnation and detachment under northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honda, Satoru

2016-03-01

Results of tomography models around the Japanese Islands show the existence of a gap between the horizontally lying (stagnant) slab extending under northeastern China and the fast seismic velocity anomaly in the lower mantle. A simple conversion from the fast velocity anomaly to the low-temperature anomaly shows a similar feature. This feature appears to be inconsistent with the results of numerical simulations on the interaction between the slab and phase transitions with temperature-dependent viscosity. Such numerical models predict a continuous slab throughout the mantle. I extend previous analyses of the tomography model and model calculations to infer the origins of the gap beneath northeastern China. Results of numerical simulations that take the geologic history of the subduction zone into account suggest two possible origins for the gap: (1) the opening of the Japan Sea led to a breaking off of the otherwise continuous subducting slab, or (2) the western edge of the stagnant slab is the previous subducted ridge, which was the plate boundary between the extinct Izanagi and the Pacific plates. Origin (2) suggesting the present horizontally lying slab has accumulated since the ridge subduction, is preferable for explaining the present length of the horizontally lying slab in the upper mantle. Numerical models of origin (1) predict a stagnant slab in the upper mantle that is too short, and a narrow or non-existent gap. Preferred models require rather stronger flow resistance of the 660-km phase change than expected from current estimates of the phase transition property. Future detailed estimates of the amount of the subducted Izanagi plate and the present stagnant slab would be useful to constrain models. A systematic along-arc variation of the slab morphology from the northeast Japan to Kurile arcs is also recognized, and its understanding may constrain the 3D mantle flow there.

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

Preliminary Experimental Results for Charge Drag in a Simulated Low Earth Orbit Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azema-Rovira, Monica

Interest in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment is growing in the science community as well as in the private sector. The number of spacecraft launched in these altitudes (150 - 700 km) keeps growing, and this region is accumulating space debris. In this scenario, the precise location of all LEO objects is a key factor to avoid catastrophic collisions and to safely perform station-keeping maneuvers. The detailed study of the atmospheric models in LEO can enhance the disturbances forces calculation of an orbiting object. Recent numerical studies indicate that one of the biggest non-conservative forces on a spacecraft is underestimated, the charge drag phenomenon. Validating these numerical models experimentally, will help to improve the numerical models for future spacecraft mission design. For this reason, the motivation of this thesis is to characterize a plasma source to later be used for charged drag measurements. The characterization has been done at the University of Colorado Colorado Springs in the Chamber for Atmospheric and Orbital Space Simulation. In the characterization process, a nano-Newton Thrust Stand has been characterized as a plasma diagnosis tool and compared with Langmuir Probe data.

Application of 2D numerical model to unsteady performance evaluation of vertical-axis tidal current turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhen; Qu, Hengliang; Shi, Hongda; Hu, Gexing; Hyun, Beom-Soo

2016-12-01

Tidal current energy is renewable and sustainable, which is a promising alternative energy resource for the future electricity supply. The straight-bladed vertical-axis turbine is regarded as a useful tool to capture the tidal current energy especially under low-speed conditions. A 2D unsteady numerical model based on Ansys-Fluent 12.0 is established to conduct the numerical simulation, which is validated by the corresponding experimental data. For the unsteady calculations, the SST model, 2×105 and 0.01 s are selected as the proper turbulence model, mesh number, and time step, respectively. Detailed contours of the velocity distributions around the rotor blade foils have been provided for a flow field analysis. The tip speed ratio (TSR) determines the azimuth angle of the appearance of the torque peak, which occurs once for a blade in a single revolution. It is also found that simply increasing the incident flow velocity could not improve the turbine performance accordingly. The peaks of the averaged power and torque coefficients appear at TSRs of 2.1 and 1.8, respectively. Furthermore, several shapes of the duct augmentation are proposed to improve the turbine performance by contracting the flow path gradually from the open mouth of the duct to the rotor. The duct augmentation can significantly enhance the power and torque output. Furthermore, the elliptic shape enables the best performance of the turbine. The numerical results prove the capability of the present 2D model for the unsteady hydrodynamics and an operating performance analysis of the vertical tidal stream turbine.

Numerical Modeling of Arsenic Mobility during Reductive Iron-Mineral Transformations.

PubMed

Rawson, Joey; Prommer, Henning; Siade, Adam; Carr, Jackson; Berg, Michael; Davis, James A; Fendorf, Scott

2016-03-01

Millions of individuals worldwide are chronically exposed to hazardous concentrations of arsenic from contaminated drinking water. Despite massive efforts toward understanding the extent and underlying geochemical processes of the problem, numerical modeling and reliable predictions of future arsenic behavior remain a significant challenge. One of the key knowledge gaps concerns a refined understanding of the mechanisms that underlie arsenic mobilization, particularly under the onset of anaerobic conditions, and the quantification of the factors that affect this process. In this study, we focus on the development and testing of appropriate conceptual and numerical model approaches to represent and quantify the reductive dissolution of iron oxides, the concomitant release of sorbed arsenic, and the role of iron-mineral transformations. The initial model development in this study was guided by data and hypothesized processes from a previously reported,1 well-controlled column experiment in which arsenic desorption from ferrihydrite coated sands by variable loads of organic carbon was investigated. Using the measured data as constraints, we provide a quantitative interpretation of the processes controlling arsenic mobility during the microbial reductive transformation of iron oxides. Our analysis suggests that the observed arsenic behavior is primarily controlled by a combination of reductive dissolution of ferrihydrite, arsenic incorporation into or co-precipitation with freshly transformed iron minerals, and partial arsenic redox transformations.

A review of numerical models to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides.

PubMed

Leelőssy, Ádám; Lagzi, István; Kovács, Attila; Mészáros, Róbert

2018-02-01

The field of atmospheric dispersion modeling has evolved together with nuclear risk assessment and emergency response systems. Atmospheric concentration and deposition of radionuclides originating from an unintended release provide the basis of dose estimations and countermeasure strategies. To predict the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides several numerical models are available coupled with numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. This work provides a review of the main concepts and different approaches of atmospheric dispersion modeling. Key processes of the atmospheric transport of radionuclides are emission, advection, turbulent diffusion, dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and other physical and chemical transformations. A wide range of modeling software are available to simulate these processes with different physical assumptions, numerical approaches and implementation. The most appropriate modeling tool for a specific purpose can be selected based on the spatial scale, the complexity of meteorology, land surface and physical and chemical transformations, also considering the available data and computational resource. For most regulatory and operational applications, offline coupled NWP-dispersion systems are used, either with a local scale Gaussian, or a regional to global scale Eulerian or Lagrangian approach. The dispersion model results show large sensitivity on the accuracy of the coupled NWP model, especially through the description of planetary boundary layer turbulence, deep convection and wet deposition. Improvement of dispersion predictions can be achieved by online coupling of mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric transport models. The 2011 Fukushima event was the first large-scale nuclear accident where real-time prognostic dispersion modeling provided decision support. Dozens of dispersion models with different approaches were used for prognostic and retrospective simulations of the Fukushima release. An unknown release rate proved to be the largest factor of uncertainty, underlining the importance of inverse modeling and data assimilation in future developments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

The benefits of frequent positive affect: does happiness lead to success?

PubMed

Lyubomirsky, Sonja; King, Laura; Diener, Ed

2005-11-01

Numerous studies show that happy individuals are successful across multiple life domains, including marriage, friendship, income, work performance, and health. The authors suggest a conceptual model to account for these findings, arguing that the happiness-success link exists not only because success makes people happy, but also because positive affect engenders success. Three classes of evidence--crosssectional, longitudinal, and experimental--are documented to test their model. Relevant studies are described and their effect sizes combined meta-analytically. The results reveal that happiness is associated with and precedes numerous successful outcomes, as well as behaviors paralleling success. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that positive affect--the hallmark of well-being--may be the cause of many of the desirable characteristics, resources, and successes correlated with happiness. Limitations, empirical issues, and important future research questions are discussed.

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Advanced Numerical Model for Irradiated Concrete

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giorla, Alain B.

In this report, we establish a numerical model for concrete exposed to irradiation to address these three critical points. The model accounts for creep in the cement paste and its coupling with damage, temperature and relative humidity. The shift in failure mode with the loading rate is also properly represented. The numerical model for creep has been validated and calibrated against different experiments in the literature [Wittmann, 1970, Le Roy, 1995]. Results from a simplified model are shown to showcase the ability of numerical homogenization to simulate irradiation effects in concrete. In future works, the complete model will be appliedmore » to the analysis of the irradiation experiments of Elleuch et al. [1972] and Kelly et al. [1969]. This requires a careful examination of the experimental environmental conditions as in both cases certain critical information are missing, including the relative humidity history. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted to provide lower and upper bounds of the concrete expansion under irradiation, and check if the scatter in the simulated results matches the one found in experiments. The numerical and experimental results will be compared in terms of expansion and loss of mechanical stiffness and strength. Both effects should be captured accordingly by the model to validate it. Once the model has been validated on these two experiments, it can be applied to simulate concrete from nuclear power plants. To do so, the materials used in these concrete must be as well characterized as possible. The main parameters required are the mechanical properties of each constituent in the concrete (aggregates, cement paste), namely the elastic modulus, the creep properties, the tensile and compressive strength, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the drying shrinkage. These can be either measured experimentally, estimated from the initial composition in the case of cement paste, or back-calculated from mechanical tests on concrete. If some are unknown, a sensitivity analysis must be carried out to provide lower and upper bounds of the material behaviour. Finally, the model can be used as a basis to formulate a macroscopic material model for concrete subject to irradiation, which later can be used in structural analyses to estimate the structural impact of irradiation on nuclear power plants.« less

A critical evaluation of various methods for the analysis of flow-solid interaction in a nest of thin cylinders subjected to cross flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Sang-Wook

1987-01-01

Various experimental, analytical, and numerical analysis methods for flow-solid interaction of a nest of cylinders subjected to cross flows are reviewed. A nest of cylinders subjected to cross flows can be found in numerous engineering applications including the Space Shuttle Maine Engine-Main Injector Assembly (SSME-MIA) and nuclear reactor heat exchangers. Despite its extreme importance in engineering applications, understanding of the flow-solid interaction process is quite limited and design of the tube banks are mostly dependent on experiments and/or experimental correlation equations. For future development of major numerical analysis methods for the flow-solid interaction of a nest of cylinders subjected to cross flow, various turbulence models, nonlinear structural dynamics, and existing laminar flow-solid interaction analysis methods are included.

TeV Cosmic-Ray Anisotropy from the Magnetic Field at the Heliospheric Boundary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

López-Barquero, V.; Xu, S.; Desiati, P.

We performed numerical calculations to test the suggestion by Desiati and Lazarian that the anisotropies of TeV cosmic rays may arise from their interactions with the heliosphere. For this purpose, we used a magnetic field model of the heliosphere and performed direct numerical calculations of particle trajectories. Unlike earlier papers testing the idea, we did not employ time-reversible techniques that are based on Liouville’s theorem. We showed numerically that for scattering by the heliosphere, the conditions of Liouville’s theorem are not satisfied, and the adiabatic approximation and time-reversibility of the particle trajectories are not valid. Our results indicate sensitivity tomore » the magnetic structure of the heliospheric magnetic field, and we expect that this will be useful for probing this structure in future research.« less

Pliocene climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

Working principle of an electromagnetic wiping system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, R.; Fautrelle, Y.; Bianchi, A.-M.; Iliescu, M.

2009-03-01

In galvanizing lines, the gas knife wiping device works well for controlling the zinc coating thickness up to 2 to 3 m/s strip velocities. But for higher velocities, a strong liquid zinc splash risk forbids the gas pressure increase, which would be necessary to keep the same thickness control efficiency of the knives. That is why a complementary electromagnetic wiping system, whose purpose is to pre-wipe the liquid zinc before the gas knives take over, is presented here. After mentioning different kinds of AC and DC possible electromagnetic solutions, a DC field electromagnetic brake (EMB) system based on the use of permanent magnets is selected for a future experimental implementation. In order to better understand the electromagnetic and fluid mechanics phenomena, an analytical model and then different numerical models are presented here. These models show an interesting wiping effect on the liquid zinc, which seems promising for a future experimental pilot design. Figs 8, Refs 9.

An investigation of the role of current and future remote sensing data systems in numerical meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diak, George R.; Smith, William L.

1993-01-01

The goals of this research endeavor have been to develop a flexible and relatively complete framework for the investigation of current and future satellite data sources in numerical meteorology. In order to realistically model how satellite information might be used for these purposes, it is necessary that Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) be as complete as possible. It is therefore desirable that these experiments simulate in entirety the sequence of steps involved in bringing satellite information from the radiance level through product retrieval to a realistic analysis and forecast sequence. In this project we have worked to make this sequence realistic by synthesizing raw satellite data from surrogate atmospheres, deriving satellite products from these data and subsequently producing analyses and forecasts using the retrieved products. The accomplishments made in 1991 are presented. The emphasis was on examining atmospheric soundings and microphysical products which we expect to produce with the launch of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), slated for flight in mid 1994.

Phasemeter core for intersatellite laser heterodyne interferometry: modelling, simulations and experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerberding, Oliver; Sheard, Benjamin; Bykov, Iouri; Kullmann, Joachim; Esteban Delgado, Juan Jose; Danzmann, Karsten; Heinzel, Gerhard

2013-12-01

Intersatellite laser interferometry is a central component of future space-borne gravity instruments like Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), evolved LISA, NGO and future geodesy missions. The inherently small laser wavelength allows us to measure distance variations with extremely high precision by interfering a reference beam with a measurement beam. The readout of such interferometers is often based on tracking phasemeters, which are able to measure the phase of an incoming beatnote with high precision over a wide range of frequencies. The implementation of such phasemeters is based on all digital phase-locked loops (ADPLL), hosted in FPGAs. Here, we present a precise model of an ADPLL that allows us to design such a readout algorithm and we support our analysis by numerical performance measurements and experiments with analogue signals.

Quasi-Optical Filter Development and Characterization for Far-IR Astronomical Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Kenneth

Mid-infrared through microwave filters, beamsplitters, and polarizers are a crucial supporting technology for NASA’s space astronomy, astrophysics, and earth science programs. Building upon our successful production of mid-infrared, far-infrared, millimeter, and microwave bandpass and lowpass filters, we propose to investigate aspects of their optical performance that are still not well understood and have yet to be addressed by other researchers. Specifically, we wish to understand and mitigate unexplained high-frequency leaks found to degrade or invalidate spectroscopic data from flight instruments such as Herschel/PACS, SHARC II, GISMO, and ACT, but not predicted by numerical simulations. A complete understanding will improve accuracy and sensitivity, and will enable the mass and volume of cryogenic baffling to be appropriately matched to the physically achievable quasioptical filter response, thereby reducing the cost of future far-infrared missions. The development and experimental validation of this modeling capability will enable optimization of system performance as well as reduce risks to the schedule and end science products for all future space and suborbital missions that use quasioptical filters. The outcome of this work will be critical in achieving the exacting background-limited bolometric detector performance specifications of future far-infrared and submillimeter space instruments. This program will allow us to apply our unique in-house numerical simulation software and develop enhanced layer alignment, filter fabrication, and testing techniques for the first time to address these issues: (1) enhance filter performance, (2) simplify the optical architecture of future instruments by improving our understanding of high-frequency leaks, and (3) produce filters which minimize or eliminate these important effects. With our state-ofthe-art modeling, fabrication, and testing facilities and expertise, established in previous projects, we are uniquely positioned to tackle this development.

The task of validation of gas-dynamic characteristics of a multistage centrifugal compressor for a natural gas booster compressor station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danilishin, A. M.; Kozhukhov, Y. V.; Neverov, V. V.; Malev, K. G.; Mironov, Y. R.

2017-08-01

The aim of this work is the validation study for the numerical modeling of characteristics of a multistage centrifugal compressor for natural gas. In the research process was the analysis used grid interfaces and software systems. The result revealed discrepancies between the simulated and experimental characteristics and outlined the future work plan.

Comparative study on change in groundwaters of rural and urban areas in Korea: effects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Sang Woong; Seul Kim, Ye; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Ho Chul; Shin, Min Cheol; Park, Jae Yong; Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong

2013-04-01

Groundwater occupies a considerable proportion of the world's water resources and is affected by climate change. It is important to understand how water budget responds to future precipitation variability for sustainable management of groundwater resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in the future, it is necessary to not only collect field data but also predict groundwater change using some groundwater numerical modelling. In this study, a relevant climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) was adopted and Visual MODFLOW was used as a main tool for predicting water budget. The predicted precipitation and air temperature data were obtained from Climate Change Information Center (CCIC) of Korea. By using the data on the scenario from 2011 to 2100, the future water budget was calculated using groundwater numerical modelling for both Wonju (WJ: urban area) and Yanggu (YG: rural area) of Gangwon Province in Korea. The model calibration was done by the groundwater level measured at 10 monitoring wells. For the numerical prediction, the groundwater recharge (WJ: 10.1%, YG: 13.3%) was estimated using watertable fluctuation (WTF) method and a concept of threshold precipitation (WJ: 240.5 mm, YG: 363.8 mm) was applied. Consequently, the water levels in both Wonju and Yanggu showed gradually increasing trends and ranged from 3.0 to 10.8 m, from 0.5 to 1.8 m in 2100, respectively. Under annual precipitation fluctuation on the scenario (2011-2100), water budget IN-OUT value (-0.87~1.07 m3/day) in Wonju city gradually increases while that (-0.73~0.46 m3/day) of Yanggu county does not. However, its annual difference is enlarged with year for both areas. The results indicate that securing groundwater resource and its management will be difficult because of frequent annual change of the groundwater storage. This work was supported by Science High School R&E program (No. C1008804-01-01) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No. 2012-0002628).

Understanding large SEP events with the PATH code: Modeling of the 13 December 2006 SEP event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Li, G.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Mason, G. M.; Haggerty, D. K.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Looper, M. D.

2010-12-01

The Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (PATH) numerical code was developed to understand solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the near-Earth environment. We discuss simulation results for the 13 December 2006 SEP event. The PATH code includes modeling a background solar wind through which a CME-driven oblique shock propagates. The code incorporates a mixed population of both flare and shock-accelerated solar wind suprathermal particles. The shock parameters derived from ACE measurements at 1 AU and observational flare characteristics are used as input into the numerical model. We assume that the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism is responsible for particle energization. We model the subsequent transport of particles originated at the flare site and particles escaping from the shock and propagating in the equatorial plane through the interplanetary medium. We derive spectra for protons, oxygen, and iron ions, together with their time-intensity profiles at 1 AU. Our modeling results show reasonable agreement with in situ measurements by ACE, STEREO, GOES, and SAMPEX for this event. We numerically estimate the Fe/O abundance ratio and discuss the physics underlying a mixed SEP event. We point out that the flare population is as important as shock geometry changes during shock propagation for modeling time-intensity profiles and spectra at 1 AU. The combined effects of seed population and shock geometry will be examined in the framework of an extended PATH code in future modeling efforts.

Estimating groundwater extraction in a data-sparse coal seam gas region, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keir, Greg; Bulovic, Nevenka; McIntyre, Neil

2017-04-01

The semi-arid Surat and Bowen Basins in central Queensland, Australia, are groundwater resources of both national and regional significance. Regional towns, agricultural industries and communities are heavily dependent on the 30 000+ groundwater supply bores for their existence; however groundwater extraction measurements are rare in this area and primarily limited to small irrigation regions. Accordingly, regional groundwater extraction is not well understood, and this may have implications for regional numerical groundwater modelling and impact assessments associated with recent coal seam gas developments. Here we present a novel statistical approach to model regional groundwater extraction that merges flow measurements / estimates with other more commonly available spatial datasets that may be of value, such as climate data, pasture data, surface water availability, etc. A three step modelling approach, combining a property scale magnitude model, a bore scale occurrence model, and a proportional distribution model within properties, is used to estimate bore extraction. We describe the process of model development and selection, and present extraction results on an aquifer-by-aquifer basis suitable for numerical groundwater modelling. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations for future research, particularly related to improvement of attribution of property-scale water demand, and temporal variability in water usage.

FDTD modeling of anisotropic nonlinear optical phenomena in silicon waveguides.

PubMed

Dissanayake, Chethiya M; Premaratne, Malin; Rukhlenko, Ivan D; Agrawal, Govind P

2010-09-27

A deep insight into the inherent anisotropic optical properties of silicon is required to improve the performance of silicon-waveguide-based photonic devices. It may also lead to novel device concepts and substantially extend the capabilities of silicon photonics in the future. In this paper, for the first time to the best of our knowledge, we present a three-dimensional finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method for modeling optical phenomena in silicon waveguides, which takes into account fully the anisotropy of the third-order electronic and Raman susceptibilities. We show that, under certain realistic conditions that prevent generation of the longitudinal optical field inside the waveguide, this model is considerably simplified and can be represented by a computationally efficient algorithm, suitable for numerical analysis of complex polarization effects. To demonstrate the versatility of our model, we study polarization dependence for several nonlinear effects, including self-phase modulation, cross-phase modulation, and stimulated Raman scattering. Our FDTD model provides a basis for a full-blown numerical simulator that is restricted neither by the single-mode assumption nor by the slowly varying envelope approximation.

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-20

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. Amore » fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.« less

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

Predictor-Based Model Reference Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavretsky, Eugene; Gadient, Ross; Gregory, Irene M.

2009-01-01

This paper is devoted to robust, Predictor-based Model Reference Adaptive Control (PMRAC) design. The proposed adaptive system is compared with the now-classical Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) architecture. Simulation examples are presented. Numerical evidence indicates that the proposed PMRAC tracking architecture has better than MRAC transient characteristics. In this paper, we presented a state-predictor based direct adaptive tracking design methodology for multi-input dynamical systems, with partially known dynamics. Efficiency of the design was demonstrated using short period dynamics of an aircraft. Formal proof of the reported PMRAC benefits constitute future research and will be reported elsewhere.

Methodology and Results of Mathematical Modelling of Complex Technological Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokrova, Nataliya V.

2018-03-01

The methodology of system analysis allows us to draw a mathematical model of the complex technological process. The mathematical description of the plasma-chemical process was proposed. The importance the quenching rate and initial temperature decrease time was confirmed for producing the maximum amount of the target product. The results of numerical integration of the system of differential equations can be used to describe reagent concentrations, plasma jet rate and temperature in order to achieve optimal mode of hardening. Such models are applicable both for solving control problems and predicting future states of sophisticated technological systems.

Multiaxial and Thermomechanical Fatigue of Materials: A Historical Perspective and Some Future Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalluri, Sreeramesh

2013-01-01

Structural materials used in engineering applications routinely subjected to repetitive mechanical loads in multiple directions under non-isothermal conditions. Over past few decades, several multiaxial fatigue life estimation models (stress- and strain-based) developed for isothermal conditions. Historically, numerous fatigue life prediction models also developed for thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction, predominantly for uniaxial mechanical loading conditions. Realistic structural components encounter multiaxial loads and non-isothermal loading conditions, which increase potential for interaction of damage modes. A need exists for mechanical testing and development verification of life prediction models under such conditions.

Modelling DC responses of 3D complex fracture networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beskardes, Gungor Didem; Weiss, Chester Joseph

Here, the determination of the geometrical properties of fractures plays a critical role in many engineering problems to assess the current hydrological and mechanical states of geological media and to predict their future states. However, numerical modeling of geoelectrical responses in realistic fractured media has been challenging due to the explosive computational cost imposed by the explicit discretizations of fractures at multiple length scales, which often brings about a tradeoff between computational efficiency and geologic realism. Here, we use the hierarchical finite element method to model electrostatic response of realistically complex 3D conductive fracture networks with minimal computational cost.

Modelling DC responses of 3D complex fracture networks

DOE PAGES

Beskardes, Gungor Didem; Weiss, Chester Joseph

2018-03-01

Here, the determination of the geometrical properties of fractures plays a critical role in many engineering problems to assess the current hydrological and mechanical states of geological media and to predict their future states. However, numerical modeling of geoelectrical responses in realistic fractured media has been challenging due to the explosive computational cost imposed by the explicit discretizations of fractures at multiple length scales, which often brings about a tradeoff between computational efficiency and geologic realism. Here, we use the hierarchical finite element method to model electrostatic response of realistically complex 3D conductive fracture networks with minimal computational cost.

Injury representation against ballistic threats using three novel numerical models.

PubMed

Breeze, Johno; Fryer, R; Pope, D; Clasper, J

2017-06-01

Injury modelling of ballistic threats is a valuable tool for informing policy on personal protective equipment and other injury mitigation methods. Currently, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Centre for Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI) are focusing on the development of three interlinking numerical models, each of a different fidelity, to answer specific questions on current threats. High-fidelity models simulate the physical events most realistically, and will be used in the future to test the medical effectiveness of personal armour systems. They are however generally computationally intensive, slow running and much of the experimental data to base their algorithms on do not yet exist. Medium fidelity models, such as the personnel vulnerability simulation (PVS), generally use algorithms based on physical or engineering estimations of interaction. This enables a reasonable representation of reality and greatly speeds up runtime allowing full assessments of the entire body area to be undertaken. Low-fidelity models such as the human injury predictor (HIP) tool generally use simplistic algorithms to make injury predictions. Individual scenarios can be run very quickly and hence enable statistical casualty assessments of large groups, where significant uncertainty concerning the threat and affected population exist. HIP is used to simulate the blast and penetrative fragmentation effects of a terrorist detonation of an improvised explosive device within crowds of people in metropolitan environments. This paper describes the collaboration between MoD and CPNI using an example of all three fidelities of injury model and to highlight future areas of research that are required. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Prediction of optimal safe ground water yield and land subsidence in the Los Banos-Kettleman City area, California, using a calibrated numerical simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, K. J.; Başaǧaoǧlu, H.; Mariño, M. A.

2001-02-01

Land subsidence caused by the excessive use of ground water resources has traditionally caused serious and costly damage to the Los Banos-Kettleman City area of California's San Joaquin Valley. Although the arrival of surface water from the Central Valley Project has reduced subsidence in recent decades, the growing instability of surface water supplies has refocused attention on the future of land subsidence in the region. This paper uses integrated numerical ground water and land subsidence models to simulate land subsidence caused by ground water overdraft. The simulation model is calibrated using observed data from 1972 to 1998, and the responsiveness of the model to variations in subsidence parameters are analyzed through a sensitivity analysis. A probable future drought scenario is used to evaluate the effect on land subsidence of three management alternatives over the next thirty years. The model reveals that maintaining present practices virtually eliminates unrecoverable land subsidence, but may not be a sustainable alternative because of a growing urban population to the south and concern over the ecological implications of water exportation from the north. The two other proposed management alternatives reduce the dependency on surface water by increasing ground water withdrawal. Land subsidence is confined to tolerable levels in the more moderate of these proposals, while the more aggressive produces significant long-term subsidence. Finally, an optimization model is formulated to determine maximum ground water withdrawal from nine pumping sub-basins without causing irrecoverable subsidence during the forecast period. The optimization model reveals that withdrawal can be increased in certain areas on the eastern side of the study area without causing significant inelastic subsidence.

The distribution of density in supersonic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squire, Jonathan; Hopkins, Philip F.

2017-11-01

We propose a model for the statistics of the mass density in supersonic turbulence, which plays a crucial role in star formation and the physics of the interstellar medium (ISM). The model is derived by considering the density to be arranged as a collection of strong shocks of width ˜ M^{-2}, where M is the turbulent Mach number. With two physically motivated parameters, the model predicts all density statistics for M>1 turbulence: the density probability distribution and its intermittency (deviation from lognormality), the density variance-Mach number relation, power spectra and structure functions. For the proposed model parameters, reasonable agreement is seen between model predictions and numerical simulations, albeit within the large uncertainties associated with current simulation results. More generally, the model could provide a useful framework for more detailed analysis of future simulations and observational data. Due to the simple physical motivations for the model in terms of shocks, it is straightforward to generalize to more complex physical processes, which will be helpful in future more detailed applications to the ISM. We see good qualitative agreement between such extensions and recent simulations of non-isothermal turbulence.

Models for predicting disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation in drinking waters: a chronological review.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-07-01

Disinfection for the supply of safe drinking water forms a variety of known and unknown byproducts through reactions between the disinfectants and natural organic matter. Chronic exposure to disinfection byproducts through the ingestion of drinking water, inhalation and dermal contact during regular indoor activities (e.g., showering, bathing, cooking) may pose cancer and non-cancer risks to human health. Since their discovery in drinking water in 1974, numerous studies have presented models to predict DBP formation in drinking water. To date, more than 48 scientific publications have reported 118 models to predict DBP formation in drinking waters. These models were developed through laboratory and field-scale experiments using raw, pretreated and synthetic waters. This paper aims to review DBP predictive models, analyze the model variables, assess the model advantages and limitations, and to determine their applicability to different water supply systems. The paper identifies the current challenges and future research needs to better control DBP formation. Finally, important directions for future research are recommended to protect human health and to follow the best management practices.

Capabilities and performance of the new generation ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Mallinen, M.; Martin, C.; Raback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Schäfer, M.; Thies, J.

2012-12-01

Since the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, and its conclusion about the inability of ice-sheet flow models to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and associated contribution to sea-level rise, a huge development effort has been undertaken by the glaciological community. All around the world, models have been improved and, interestingly, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them, the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice (based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer) was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections of the future of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve dedicated local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. In this presentation, we summarise the almost 10 years of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planed for the future.

Summary of Cumulus Parameterization Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Starr, David OC.; Hou, Arthur; Newman, Paul; Sud, Yogesh

2002-01-01

A workshop on cumulus parameterization took place at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from December 3-5, 2001. The major objectives of this workshop were (1) to review the problem of representation of moist processes in large-scale models (mesoscale models, Numerical Weather Prediction models and Atmospheric General Circulation Models), (2) to review the state-of-the-art in cumulus parameterization schemes, and (3) to discuss the need for future research and applications. There were a total of 31 presentations and about 100 participants from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The specific presentations and discussions during the workshop are summarized in this paper.

Changes of glaciers in the Andes of Chile and priorities for future work.

PubMed

Pellicciotti, F; Ragettli, S; Carenzo, M; McPhee, J

2014-09-15

Glaciers in the Andes of Chile seem to be shrinking and possibly loosing mass, but the number and types of studies conducted, constrained mainly by data availability, are not sufficient to provide a synopsis of glacier changes for the past or future or explain in an explicit way causes of the observed changes. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of changes in glaciers for the entire country, followed by a discussion of the studies that have provided evidence of such changes. We identify a missing type of work in distributed, physically-oriented modelling studies that are needed to bridge the gap between the numerous remote sensing studies and the specific, point scale works focused on process understanding. We use an advanced mass balance model applied to one of the best monitored glaciers in the region to investigate four main research issues that should be addressed in modelling studies for a sound assessment of glacier changes: 1) the use of physically-based models of glacier ablation (energy balance models) versus more empirical models (enhanced temperature index approaches); 2) the importance of the correct extrapolation of air temperature forcing on glaciers and in high elevation areas and the large uncertainty in model outputs associated with it; 3) the role played by snow gravitational redistribution; and 4) the uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. We quantify differences in model outputs associated with each of these choices, and conclude with suggestions for future work directions. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

DOE PAGES

Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S.; ...

2011-08-01

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibilitymore » of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This thus permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. Here we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.« less

Characterization and design of the FutureGen 2.0 carbon storage site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilmore, Tyler; Bonneville, Alain; Sullivan, Charlotte

2016-10-01

The objective of the FutureGen 2.0 Project was to demonstrate, at the commercial scale, the technical feasibility of implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a deep saline formation in Illinois, USA. Over approximately 5 years, the FutureGen Alliance conducted a detailed site-selection process and identified a site for carbon sequestration storage in Morgan County, Illinois. The storage site was fully characterized, including the collection of seismic data and the drilling and characterization of a stratigraphic borehole. The characterization data provided critical input for developing a site-specific conceptual model and subsequent numerical modeling simulations. The modeling simulations, coupled with themore » upstream designs of the pipeline and power plant supported the development of a detailed 90 percent design that included the injection wells and associated control and monitoring infrastructure. Collectively, all these data were used by the FutureGen Alliance to develop the required documentation to support the applications for four underground injection control (UIC) permits (one for each proposed well). In August 2014, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued four, first-of-their-kind, Class VI UIC permits for carbon sequestration in the United States to the FutureGen Alliance. The information and data generated under this project have been made publically available through reports and publications, including this journal and others.« less

Crashworthiness analysis using advanced material models in DYNA3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Logan, R.W.; Burger, M.J.; McMichael, L.D.

1993-10-22

As part of an electric vehicle consortium, LLNL and Kaiser Aluminum are conducting experimental and numerical studies on crashworthy aluminum spaceframe designs. They have jointly explored the effect of heat treat on crush behavior and duplicated the experimental behavior with finite-element simulations. The major technical contributions to the state of the art in numerical simulation arise from the development and use of advanced material model descriptions for LLNL`s DYNA3D code. Constitutive model enhancements in both flow and failure have been employed for conventional materials such as low-carbon steels, and also for lighter weight materials such as aluminum and fiber compositesmore » being considered for future vehicles. The constitutive model enhancements are developed as extensions from LLNL`s work in anisotropic flow and multiaxial failure modeling. Analysis quality as a function of level of simplification of material behavior and mesh is explored, as well as the penalty in computation cost that must be paid for using more complex models and meshes. The lightweight material modeling technology is being used at the vehicle component level to explore the safety implications of small neighborhood electric vehicles manufactured almost exclusively from these materials.« less

Evaluation of simplified stream-aquifer depletion models for water rights administration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sophocleous, Marios; Koussis, Antonis; Martin, J.L.; Perkins, S.P.

1995-01-01

We assess the predictive accuracy of Glover's (1974) stream-aquifer analytical solutions, which are commonly used in administering water rights, and evaluate the impact of the assumed idealizations on administrative and management decisions. To achieve these objectives, we evaluate the predictive capabilities of the Glover stream-aquifer depletion model against the MODFLOW numerical standard, which, unlike the analytical model, can handle increasing hydrogeologic complexity. We rank-order and quantify the relative importance of the various assumptions on which the analytical model is based, the three most important being: (1) streambed clogging as quantified by streambed-aquifer hydraulic conductivity contrast; (2) degree of stream partial penetration; and (3) aquifer heterogeneity. These three factors relate directly to the multidimensional nature of the aquifer flow conditions. From these considerations, future efforts to reduce the uncertainty in stream depletion-related administrative decisions should primarily address these three factors in characterizing the stream-aquifer process. We also investigate the impact of progressively coarser model grid size on numerically estimating stream leakage and conclude that grid size effects are relatively minor. Therefore, when modeling is required, coarser model grids could be used thus minimizing the input data requirements.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling.

PubMed

Ganju, Neil K; Brush, Mark J; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L; Del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S; Harris, Lora A; Lake, Samuel J; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K; Signell, Richard P; Testa, Jeremy M; Vaudrey, Jamie M P

2016-03-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy; Vaudrey, Jamie M. P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

PubMed Central

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O’Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy M.; Vaudrey, Jamie M.P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy. PMID:27721675

Modelling Framework and the Quantitative Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources in Future Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun; Nordström, Lars

2013-08-01

There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large-scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) could eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in numerous ways. Thus, it is necessary to introduce a framework to measure to what extent the power system operation will be changed by various parameters of DERs. This article proposed a modelling framework for an overview analysis on the correlation between DERs. Furthermore, to validate the framework, the authors described the reference models of different categories of DERs with their unique characteristics, comprising distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was made on the basis of the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden. Simulations are performed in two typical distribution network models for four seasons. The simulation results show that in general the DER deployment brings in the possibilities to reduce the power losses and voltage drops by compensating power from the local generation and optimizing the local load profiles.

Middle Rio Grande Water Sustainability in Extreme Drought: Using Provenance to Trace Modeling Scenarios Selected by Users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. D.; Garnica Chavira, L.; Villanueva-Rosales, N.

2017-12-01

People living in the vicinity of the middle Rio Grande from Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico through Fort Quitman, Texas, including inhabitants on the Mexican side of the river, are confronted with numerous challenges that include drought, population growth, reduced surface water quality and quantity, declining aquifers, and expected future increases in temperature with more variable precipitation. The transboundary surface water is subject to complex regulation across two U.S. states and two nations (U.S. and Mexico). This presentation will summarize the modeling efforts of a USDA-funded project to characterize potential future solutions for water sustainability while managing agriculture, economic, and human impacts. It will present an online software system designed for rapid, flexible modeling of different climate, policy, and technology scenarios with stakeholders, and the underlying intelligent system that manages model selection, data and parameters, and user choices, and provides a provenance trace based on the W3C PROV standard.

Chaotic time series prediction for prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls in umbilical cord blood using the least squares SEATR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xijin; Tang, Qian; Xia, Haiyue; Zhang, Yuling; Li, Weiqiu; Huo, Xia

2016-04-01

Chaotic time series prediction based on nonlinear systems showed a superior performance in prediction field. We studied prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by chaotic time series prediction using the least squares self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SEATR) model in umbilical cord blood in an electronic waste (e-waste) contaminated area. The specific prediction steps basing on the proposal methods for prenatal PCB exposure were put forward, and the proposed scheme’s validity was further verified by numerical simulation experiments. Experiment results show: 1) seven kinds of PCB congeners negatively correlate with five different indices for birth status: newborn weight, height, gestational age, Apgar score and anogenital distance; 2) prenatal PCB exposed group at greater risks compared to the reference group; 3) PCBs increasingly accumulated with time in newborns; and 4) the possibility of newborns suffering from related diseases in the future was greater. The desirable numerical simulation experiments results demonstrated the feasibility of applying mathematical model in the environmental toxicology field.

The oesophageal zero-stress state and mucosal folding from a GIOME perspective

PubMed Central

Liao, Donghua; Zhao, Jingbo; Yang, Jian; Gregersen, Hans

2007-01-01

The oesophagus is a cylindrical organ with a collapsed lumen and mucosal folds. The mucosal folding may serve to advance the function of the oesophagus, i.e. the folds have a major influence on the flow of air and bolus through the oesophagus. Experimental studies have demonstrated oesophageal mucosal folds in the no-load state. This indicates that mucosal buckling must be considered in the analysis of the mechanical reference state since the material stiffness drops dramatically after tissue collapse. Most previous work on the oesophageal zero-stress state and mucosal folding has been experimental. However, numerical analysis offers a promising alternative approach, with the additional ability to predict the mucosal buckling behaviour and to calculate the regional stress and strain in complex structures. A numerical model used for describing the mechanical behaviour of the mucosal-folded, three-layered, two-dimensional oesophageal model is reviewed. GIOME models can be used in the future to predict the tissue function physiologically and pathologically. PMID:17457964

Chaotic time series prediction for prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls in umbilical cord blood using the least squares SEATR model

PubMed Central

Xu, Xijin; Tang, Qian; Xia, Haiyue; Zhang, Yuling; Li, Weiqiu; Huo, Xia

2016-01-01

Chaotic time series prediction based on nonlinear systems showed a superior performance in prediction field. We studied prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by chaotic time series prediction using the least squares self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SEATR) model in umbilical cord blood in an electronic waste (e-waste) contaminated area. The specific prediction steps basing on the proposal methods for prenatal PCB exposure were put forward, and the proposed scheme’s validity was further verified by numerical simulation experiments. Experiment results show: 1) seven kinds of PCB congeners negatively correlate with five different indices for birth status: newborn weight, height, gestational age, Apgar score and anogenital distance; 2) prenatal PCB exposed group at greater risks compared to the reference group; 3) PCBs increasingly accumulated with time in newborns; and 4) the possibility of newborns suffering from related diseases in the future was greater. The desirable numerical simulation experiments results demonstrated the feasibility of applying mathematical model in the environmental toxicology field. PMID:27118260

Numerical simulation of two-dimensional flow over a heated carbon surface with coupled heterogeneous and homogeneous reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Ryan Federick; Chelliah, Harsha Kumar

2017-01-01

For a range of flow and chemical timescales, numerical simulations of two-dimensional laminar flow over a reacting carbon surface were performed to understand further the complex coupling between heterogeneous and homogeneous reactions. An open-source computational package (OpenFOAM®) was used with previously developed lumped heterogeneous reaction models for carbon surfaces and a detailed homogeneous reaction model for CO oxidation. The influence of finite-rate chemical kinetics was explored by varying the surface temperatures from 1800 to 2600 K, while flow residence time effects were explored by varying the free-stream velocity up to 50 m/s. The reacting boundary layer structure dependence on the residence time was analysed by extracting the ratio of chemical source and species diffusion terms. The important contributions of radical species reactions on overall carbon removal rate, which is often neglected in multi-dimensional simulations, are highlighted. The results provide a framework for future development and validation of lumped heterogeneous reaction models based on multi-dimensional reacting flow configurations.

Thymoquinone, as an anticancer molecule: from basic research to clinical investigation

PubMed Central

Asaduzzaman Khan, Md.; Tania, Mousumi; Fu, Shangyi; Fu, Junjiang

2017-01-01

Thymoquinone is an anticancer phytochemical commonly found in black cumin. In this review, we discuss the potential of thymoquinone as anticancer molecule, its mechanism of action and future usage in clinical applications. Thymoquinone exhibits anticancer activity via numerous mechanisms of action, specifically by showing selective antioxidant and oxidant activity, interfering with DNA structure, affecting carcinogenic signaling molecules/pathways and immunomodulation. In vitro activity of thymoquinone has been further implicated in animal models of cancer; however, no clinical application has been proven yet. This is the optimum time to focus on clinical trials for developing thymoquinone as a future drug in cancer therapeutics. PMID:28881699

Thymoquinone, as an anticancer molecule: from basic research to clinical investigation.

PubMed

Asaduzzaman Khan, Md; Tania, Mousumi; Fu, Shangyi; Fu, Junjiang

2017-08-01

Thymoquinone is an anticancer phytochemical commonly found in black cumin. In this review, we discuss the potential of thymoquinone as anticancer molecule, its mechanism of action and future usage in clinical applications. Thymoquinone exhibits anticancer activity via numerous mechanisms of action, specifically by showing selective antioxidant and oxidant activity, interfering with DNA structure, affecting carcinogenic signaling molecules/pathways and immunomodulation. In vitro activity of thymoquinone has been further implicated in animal models of cancer; however, no clinical application has been proven yet. This is the optimum time to focus on clinical trials for developing thymoquinone as a future drug in cancer therapeutics.

Dynamics of Social Group Competition: Modeling the Decline of Religious Affiliation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, Daniel M.; Yaple, Haley A.; Wiener, Richard J.

2011-08-01

When social groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics may be understandable with mathematical models. We demonstrate that a simple ordinary differential equation (ODE) model is a good fit for religious shift by comparing it to a new international data set tracking religious nonaffiliation. We then generalize the model to include the possibility of nontrivial social interaction networks and examine the limiting case of a continuous system. Analytical and numerical predictions of this generalized system, which is robust to polarizing perturbations, match those of the original ODE model and justify its agreement with real-world data. The resulting predictions highlight possible causes of social shift and suggest future lines of research in both physics and sociology.

The UK Earth System Model project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yongming

2016-04-01

In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

Evaluating Conceptual Site Models with Multicomponent Reactive Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Heffner, D.; Price, V.; Temples, T. J.; Nicholson, T. J.

2005-05-01

Modeling ground-water flow and multicomponent reactive chemical transport is a useful approach for testing conceptual site models and assessing the design of monitoring networks. A graded approach with three conceptual site models is presented here with a field case of tetrachloroethene (PCE) transport and biodegradation near Charleston, SC. The first model assumed a one-layer homogeneous aquifer structure with semi-infinite boundary conditions, in which an analytical solution of the reactive solute transport can be obtained with BIOCHLOR (Aziz et al., 1999). Due to the over-simplification of the aquifer structure, this simulation cannot reproduce the monitoring data. In the second approach we used GMS to develop the conceptual site model, a layer-cake multi-aquifer system, and applied a numerical module (MODFLOW and RT3D within GMS) to solve the flow and reactive transport problem. The results were better than the first approach but still did not fit the plume well because the geological structures were still inadequately defined. In the third approach we developed a complex conceptual site model by interpreting log and seismic survey data with Petra and PetraSeis. We detected a major channel and a younger channel, through the PCE source area. These channels control the local ground-water flow direction and provide a preferential chemical transport pathway. Results using the third conceptual site model agree well with the monitoring concentration data. This study confirms that the bias and uncertainty from inadequate conceptual models are much larger than those introduced from an inadequate choice of model parameter values (Neuman and Wierenga, 2003; Meyer et al., 2004). Numerical modeling in this case provides key insight into the hydrogeology and geochemistry of the field site for predicting contaminant transport in the future. Finally, critical monitoring points and performance indicator parameters are selected for future monitoring to confirm system performance.

A View of Hurricane Katrina with Early 2lSt Century Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Li, J.-L.; Suarez, M. J.; Tompkins, A. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Rienecker, M. M.; Bacmeister, J.; Jiang, J.; Wu, H.-T.; Tassone, C. M.

2006-01-01

Recent advances in space-borne observations and numerical weather prediction models provide new opportunities for improving hurricane forecasts. In this study, state-of-the-art satellite observations are used to document the evolution of one of the most devastating tropical cyclones ever to hit the United States: Hurricane Katrina. The ECMWF and NASA global high-resolution forecasts, the latter being run in experimental mode, are compared with satellite observations, with a focus on precipitation and cloud processes. Future directions on modeling and observations are briefly discussed.

Dynamical systems analysis of phantom dark energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Nandan; Bhadra, Nivedita

2018-06-01

In this work, we study the dynamical systems analysis of phantom dark energy models considering five different potentials. From the analysis of these five potentials we have found a general parametrization of the scalar field potentials which is obeyed by many other potentials. Our investigation shows that there is only one fixed point which could be the beginning of the universe. However, future destiny has many possible options. A detailed numerical analysis of the system has been presented. The observed late time behaviour in this analysis shows very good agreement with the recent observations.

Standard Model parton distributions at very high energies

DOE PAGES

Bauer, Christian W.; Ferland, Nicolas; Webber, Bryan R.

2017-08-09

We compute the leading-order evolution of parton distribution functions for all the Standard Model fermions and bosons up to energy scales far above the electroweak scale, where electroweak symmetry is restored. Our results include the 52 PDFs of the unpolarized proton, evolving according to the SU(3), SU(2), U(1), mixed SU(2)×U(1) and Yukawa interactions. We illustrate the numerical effects on parton distributions at large energies, and show that this can lead to important corrections to parton luminosities at a future 100 TeV collider.

Standard Model parton distributions at very high energies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Christian W.; Ferland, Nicolas; Webber, Bryan R.

We compute the leading-order evolution of parton distribution functions for all the Standard Model fermions and bosons up to energy scales far above the electroweak scale, where electroweak symmetry is restored. Our results include the 52 PDFs of the unpolarized proton, evolving according to the SU(3), SU(2), U(1), mixed SU(2)×U(1) and Yukawa interactions. We illustrate the numerical effects on parton distributions at large energies, and show that this can lead to important corrections to parton luminosities at a future 100 TeV collider.

Performance and Reliability of Bonded Interfaces for High-temperature Packaging: Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVoto, Douglas J.

2017-10-19

As maximum device temperatures approach 200 °Celsius, continuous operation, sintered silver materials promise to maintain bonds at these high temperatures without excessive degradation rates. A detailed characterization of the thermal performance and reliability of sintered silver materials and processes has been initiated for the next year. Future steps in crack modeling include efforts to simulate crack propagation directly using the extended finite element method (X-FEM), a numerical technique that uses the partition of unity method for modeling discontinuities such as cracks in a system.

New atmospheric sensor analysis study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, K. G.

1989-01-01

The functional capabilities of the ESAD Research Computing Facility are discussed. The system is used in processing atmospheric measurements which are used in the evaluation of sensor performance, conducting design-concept simulation studies, and also in modeling the physical and dynamical nature of atmospheric processes. The results may then be evaluated to furnish inputs into the final design specifications for new space sensors intended for future Spacelab, Space Station, and free-flying missions. In addition, data gathered from these missions may subsequently be analyzed to provide better understanding of requirements for numerical modeling of atmospheric phenomena.

Modeling of the Orbital Evolution of 2060 Chiron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalenko, Nataliya S.; Babenko, Yury G.; Churyumov, Klim I.

2002-03-01

The origin of Centaurs is one of the most interesting problems of Solar system science, and it has not yet been solved. To shed light on this problem one can investigate Centaurs' past and future orbital evolution. In this paper we discuss the results of Chiron's orbital evolution modeling. It was the first discovered Centaur and is the brightest one. Numerical integration was produced for 1 Myr forward and backward from the present time. A program based on the Everhart single sequence method for integrating orbits was used.

Regulation of PCP by the Fat signaling pathway

PubMed Central

Matis, Maja; Axelrod, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Planar cell polarity (PCP) in epithelia, orthogonal to the apical–basal axis, is essential for numerous developmental events and physiological functions. Drosophila model systems have been at the forefront of studies revealing insights into mechanisms regulating PCP and have revealed distinct signaling modules. One of these, involving the atypical cadherins Fat and Dachsous and the ectokinase Four-jointed, appears to link the direction of cell polarization to the tissue axes. We discuss models for the function of this signaling module as well as several unanswered questions that may guide future investigations. PMID:24142873

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voynikova, D. S., E-mail: desi-sl2000@yahoo.com; Gocheva-Ilieva, S. G., E-mail: snegocheva@yahoo.com; Ivanov, A. V., E-mail: aivanov-99@yahoo.com

Numerous time series methods are used in environmental sciences allowing the detailed investigation of air pollution processes. The goal of this study is to present the empirical analysis of various aspects of stochastic modeling and in particular the ARIMA/SARIMA methods. The subject of investigation is air pollution in the town of Kardzhali, Bulgaria with 2 problematic pollutants – sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Various SARIMA Transfer Function models are built taking into account meteorological factors, data transformations and the use of different horizons selected to predict future levels of concentrations of the pollutants.

Stability and growth of continental shields in mantle convection models including recurrent melt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Smet, J. H.; van den Berg, A. P.; Vlaar, N. J.

1998-10-01

The long-term growth and stability of compositionally layered continental upper mantle has been investigated by numerical modelling. We present the first numerical model of a convecting mantle including differentiation through partial melting resulting in a stable compositionally layered continental upper mantle structure. This structure includes a continental root extending to a depth of about 200 km. The model covers the upper mantle including the crust and incorporates physical features important for the study of the continental upper mantle during secular cooling of the Earth since the Archaean. Among these features are: a partial melt generation mechanism allowing consistent recurrent melting, time-dependent non-uniform radiogenic heat production, and a temperature- and pressure-dependent rheology. The numerical results reveal a long-term growth mechanism of the continental compositional root. This mechanism operates through episodical injection of small diapiric upwellings from the deep layer of undepleted mantle into the continental root which consists of compositionally distinct depleted mantle material. Our modelling results show the layered continental structure to remain stable during at least 1.5 Ga. After this period mantle differentiation through partial melting ceases due to the prolonged secular cooling and small-scale instabilities set in through continental delamination. This stable period of 1.5 Ga is related to a number of limitations in our model. By improving on these limitations in the future this stable period will be extended to more realistic values.

Benchmark problems for numerical implementations of phase field models

DOE PAGES

Jokisaari, A. M.; Voorhees, P. W.; Guyer, J. E.; ...

2016-10-01

Here, we present the first set of benchmark problems for phase field models that are being developed by the Center for Hierarchical Materials Design (CHiMaD) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). While many scientific research areas use a limited set of well-established software, the growing phase field community continues to develop a wide variety of codes and lacks benchmark problems to consistently evaluate the numerical performance of new implementations. Phase field modeling has become significantly more popular as computational power has increased and is now becoming mainstream, driving the need for benchmark problems to validate and verifymore » new implementations. We follow the example set by the micromagnetics community to develop an evolving set of benchmark problems that test the usability, computational resources, numerical capabilities and physical scope of phase field simulation codes. In this paper, we propose two benchmark problems that cover the physics of solute diffusion and growth and coarsening of a second phase via a simple spinodal decomposition model and a more complex Ostwald ripening model. We demonstrate the utility of benchmark problems by comparing the results of simulations performed with two different adaptive time stepping techniques, and we discuss the needs of future benchmark problems. The development of benchmark problems will enable the results of quantitative phase field models to be confidently incorporated into integrated computational materials science and engineering (ICME), an important goal of the Materials Genome Initiative.« less

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Utilization management in radiology, part 2: perspectives and future directions.

PubMed

Duszak, Richard; Berlin, Jonathan W

2012-10-01

Increased utilization of medical imaging in the early part of the last decade has resulted in numerous efforts to reduce associated spending. Recent initiatives have focused on managing utilization with radiology benefits managers and real-time order entry decision support systems. Although these approaches might seem mutually exclusive and their application to radiology appears unique, the historical convergence and broad acceptance of both programs within the pharmacy sector may offer parallels for their potential future in medical imaging. In this second installment of a two-part series, anticipated trends in radiology utilization management are reviewed. Perspectives on current and future potential roles of radiologists in such initiatives are discussed, particularly in light of emerging physician payment models. Copyright © 2012 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing Model Errors in Simulations of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-06-01

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined PV panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results suggest that an isotropic transposition model developed by Badescu substantially underestimates diffuse plane-of-array (POA) irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study can be used as amore » guide for future development of physics-based transposition models.« less

Diagnosing Model Errors in Simulation of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-11-21

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined PV panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results show significant differences between two highly used isotropic transposition models with one substantially underestimating the diffuse plane-of-array (POA) irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study canmore » be used as a guide for future development of physics-based transposition models.« less

Numerical Prediction of SERN Performance using WIND code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engblom, W. A.

2003-01-01

Computational results are presented for the performance and flow behavior of single-expansion ramp nozzles (SERNs) during overexpanded operation and transonic flight. Three-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) results are obtained for two vehicle configurations, including the NASP Model 5B and ISTAR RBCC (a variant of X-43B) using the WIND code. Numerical predictions for nozzle integrated forces and pitch moments are directly compared to experimental data for the NASP Model 5B, and adequate-to-excellent agreement is found. The sensitivity of SERN performance and separation phenomena to freestream static pressure and Mach number is demonstrated via a matrix of cases for both vehicles. 3-D separation regions are shown to be induced by either lateral (e.g., sidewall) shocks or vertical (e.g., cowl trailing edge) shocks. Finally, the implications of this work to future preliminary design efforts involving SERNs are discussed.

Carbon dioxide and climate: a second assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

For over a century, concern has been expressed that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentration could affect global climate by changing the heat balance of the atmosphere and Earth. Observations reveal steadily increasing concentrations of CO/sub 2/, and experiments with numerical climate models indicate that continued increase would eventually produce significant climatic change. Comprehensive assessment of the issue will require projection of future CO/sub 2/ emissions and study of the disposition of this excess carbon in the atmosphere, ocean, and biota; the effect on climate; and the implications for human welfare. This study focuses on one aspect, estimationmore » of the effect on climate of assumed future increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/. Conclusions are drawn principally from present-day numerical models of the climate system. To address the significant role of the oceans, the study also makes use of observations of the distributions of anthropogenic tracers other than CO/sub 2/. The rapid scientific developments in these areas suggest that periodic reassessments will be warranted. The starting point for the study was a similar 1979 review by a Climate Research Board panel chaired by the late Jule G. Charney. The present study has not found any new results that necessitate substantial revision of the conclusions of the Charney report.« less

Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

System Modeling for Ammonia Synthesis Energy Recovery System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bran Anleu, Gabriela; Kavehpour, Pirouz; Lavine, Adrienne; Ammonia thermochemical Energy Storage Team

2015-11-01

An ammonia thermochemical energy storage system is an alternative solution to the state-of-the-art molten salt TES system for concentrating solar power. Some of the advantages of this emerging technology include its high energy density, no heat losses during the storage duration, and the possibility of long storage periods. Solar energy powers an endothermic reaction to disassociate ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen, which can be stored for future use. The reverse reaction is carried out in the energy recovery process; a hydrogen-nitrogen mixture flowing through a catalyst bed undergoes the exothermic ammonia synthesis reaction. The goal is to use the ammonia synthesis reaction to heat supercritical steam to temperatures on the order of 650°C as required for a supercritical steam Rankine cycle. The steam will flow through channels in a combined reactor-heat exchanger. A numerical model has been developed to determine the optimal design to heat supercritical steam while maintaining a stable exothermic reaction. The model consists of a transient one dimensional concentric tube counter-flow reactor-heat exchanger. The numerical model determines the inlet mixture conditions needed to achieve various steam outlet conditions.

Calculations of B1 Distribution, Specific Energy Absorption Rate, and Intrinsic Signal-to-Noise Ratio for a Body-Size Birdcage Coil Loaded with Different Human Subjects at 64 and 128 MHz.

PubMed

Liu, W; Collins, C M; Smith, M B

2005-03-01

A numerical model of a female body is developed to study the effects of different body types with different coil drive methods on radio-frequency magnetic ( B 1 ) field distribution, specific energy absorption rate (SAR), and intrinsic signal-to-noise ratio (ISNR) for a body-size birdcage coil at 64 and 128 MHz. The coil is loaded with either a larger, more muscular male body model (subject 1) or a newly developed female body model (subject 2), and driven with two-port (quadrature), four-port, or many (ideal) sources. Loading the coil with subject 1 results in significantly less homogeneous B 1 field, higher SAR, and lower ISNR than those for subject 2 at both frequencies. This dependence of MR performance and safety measures on body type indicates a need for a variety of numerical models representative of a diverse population for future calculations. The different drive methods result in similar B 1 field patterns, SAR, and ISNR in all cases.

Combining Satellite Measurements and Numerical Flood Prediction Models to Save Lives and Property from Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Garambois, P. A.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

Floods are considered the major natural threats to human societies across all continents. Consequences of floods in highly populated areas are more dramatic with losses of human lives and substantial property damage. This risk is projected to increase with the effects of climate change, particularly sea-level rise, increasing storm frequencies and intensities and increasing population and economic assets in such urban watersheds. Despite the advances in computational resources and modeling techniques, significant gaps exist in predicting complex processes and accurately representing the initial state of the system. Improving flood prediction models and data assimilation chains through satellite has become an absolute priority to produce accurate flood forecasts with sufficient lead times. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the benefits of the Surface Water Ocean Topography SWOT satellite data from a flood prediction perspective. The near real time methodology is based on combining satellite data from a simulator that mimics the future SWOT data, numerical models, high resolution elevation data and real-time local measurement in the New York/New Jersey area.

Numerical Modelling of Staged Combustion Aft-Injected Hybrid Rocket Motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijsse, Jeff

The staged combustion aft-injected hybrid (SCAIH) rocket motor is a promising design for the future of hybrid rocket propulsion. Advances in computational fluid dynamics and scientific computing have made computational modelling an effective tool in hybrid rocket motor design and development. The focus of this thesis is the numerical modelling of the SCAIH rocket motor in a turbulent combustion, high-speed, reactive flow framework accounting for solid soot transport and radiative heat transfer. The SCAIH motor is modelled with a shear coaxial injector with liquid oxygen injected in the center at sub-critical conditions: 150 K and 150 m/s (Mach ≈ 0.9), and a gas-generator gas-solid mixture of one-third carbon soot by mass injected in the annual opening at 1175 K and 460 m/s (Mach ≈ 0.6). Flow conditions in the near injector region and the flame anchoring mechanism are of particular interest. Overall, the flow is shown to exhibit instabilities and the flame is shown to anchor directly on the injector faceplate with temperatures in excess of 2700 K.

Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.

2015-12-01

The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.

Insights from Modeling the Integrated Climate, Biogeochemical Cycles, Human Activities and Their Interactions in the ACME Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Thornton, P. E.; Riley, W. J.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

Towards the goal of understanding the contributions from natural and managed systems to current and future greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon-climate and carbon-CO2 feedbacks, efforts have been underway to improve representations of the terrestrial, river, and human components of the ACME earth system model. Broadly, our efforts include implementation and comparison of approaches to represent the nutrient cycles and nutrient limitations on ecosystem production, extending the river transport model to represent sediment and riverine biogeochemistry, and coupling of human systems such as irrigation, reservoir operations, and energy and land use with the ACME land and river components. Numerical experiments have been designed to understand how terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles regulate climate system feedbacks and the sensitivity of the feedbacks to different model treatments, examine key processes governing sediment and biogeochemistry in the rivers and their role in the carbon cycle, and exploring the impacts of human systems in perturbing the hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions. This presentation will briefly introduce the ACME modeling approaches and discuss preliminary results and insights from numerical experiments that lay the foundation for improving understanding of the integrated climate-biogeochemistry-human system.

Analysis and calculation of macrosegregation in a casting ingot. MPS solidification model. Volume 1: Formulation and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maples, A. L.; Poirier, D. R.

1980-01-01

The physical and numerical formulation of a model for the horizontal solidification of a binary alloy is described. It can be applied in an ingot. The major purpose of the model is to calculate macrosegregation in a casting ingot which results from flow of interdendritic liquid during solidification. The flow, driven by solidification contractions and by gravity acting on density gradients in the interdendritic liquid, was modeled as flow through a porous medium. The symbols used are defined. The physical formulation of the problem leading to a set of equations which can be used to obtain: (1) the pressure field; (2) the velocity field: (3) mass flow and (4) solute flow in the solid plus liquid zone during solidification is presented. With these established, the model calculates macrosegregation after solidification is complete. The numerical techniques used to obtain solution on a computational grid are presented. Results, evaluation of the results, and recommendations for future development of the model are given. The macrosegregation and flow field predictions for tin-lead, aluminum-copper, and tin-bismuth alloys are included as well as comparisons of some of the predictions with published predictions or with empirical data.

A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

A stochastic ensemble-based model to predict crop water requirements from numerical weather forecasts and VIS-NIR high resolution satellite images in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelosi, Anna; Falanga Bolognesi, Salvatore; De Michele, Carlo; Medina Gonzalez, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

2015-04-01

Irrigation agriculture is one the biggest consumer of water in Europe, especially in southern regions, where it accounts for up to 70% of the total water consumption. The EU Common Agricultural Policy, combined with the Water Framework Directive, imposes to farmers and irrigation managers a substantial increase of the efficiency in the use of water in agriculture for the next decade. Ensemble numerical weather predictions can be valuable data for developing operational advisory irrigation services. We propose a stochastic ensemble-based model providing spatial and temporal estimates of crop water requirements, implemented within an advisory service offering detailed maps of irrigation water requirements and crop water consumption estimates, to be used by water irrigation managers and farmers. The stochastic model combines estimates of crop potential evapotranspiration retrieved from ensemble numerical weather forecasts (COSMO-LEPS, 16 members, 7 km resolution) and canopy parameters (LAI, albedo, fractional vegetation cover) derived from high resolution satellite images in the visible and near infrared wavelengths. The service provides users with daily estimates of crop water requirements for lead times up to five days. The temporal evolution of the crop potential evapotranspiration is simulated with autoregressive models. An ensemble Kalman filter is employed for updating model states by assimilating both ground based meteorological variables (where available) and numerical weather forecasts. The model has been applied in Campania region (Southern Italy), where a satellite assisted irrigation advisory service has been operating since 2006. This work presents the results of the system performance for one year of experimental service. The results suggest that the proposed model can be an effective support for a sustainable use and management of irrigation water, under conditions of water scarcity and drought. Since the evapotranspiration term represents a staple component in the water balance of a catchment, as outstanding future development, the model could also offer an advanced support for water resources management decisions at catchment scale.

Method based on the Laplace equations to reconstruct the river terrain for two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Ruixun; Wang, Min; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Chao

2018-02-01

The accuracy of the widely-used two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model depends on the quality of the river terrain model, particularly in the main channel. However, in most cases, the bathymetry of the river channel is difficult or expensive to obtain in the field, and there is a lack of available data to describe the geometry of the river channel. We introduce a method that originates from the grid generation with the elliptic equation to generate streamlines of the river channel. The streamlines are numerically solved with the Laplace equations. In the process, streamlines in the physical domain are first computed in a computational domain, and then transformed back to the physical domain. The interpolated streamlines are integrated with the surrounding topography to reconstruct the entire river terrain model. The approach was applied to a meandering reach in the Qinhe River, which is a tributary in the middle of the Yellow River, China. Cross-sectional validation and the two-dimensional shallow-water equations are used to test the performance of the river terrain generated. The results show that the approach can reconstruct the river terrain using the data from measured cross-sections. Furthermore, the created river terrain can maintain a geometrical shape consistent with the measurements, while generating a smooth main channel. Finally, several limitations and opportunities for future research are discussed.

Numerical simulation of stress amplification induced by crack interaction in human femur bone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alia, Noor; Daud, Ruslizam; Ramli, Mohammad Fadzli; Azman, Wan Zuki; Faizal, Ahmad; Aisyah, Siti

2015-05-01

This research is about numerical simulation using a computational method which study on stress amplification induced by crack interaction in human femur bone. Cracks in human femur bone usually occur because of large load or stress applied on it. Usually, the fracture takes longer time to heal itself. At present, the crack interaction is still not well understood due to bone complexity. Thus, brittle fracture behavior of bone may be underestimated and inaccurate. This study aims to investigate the geometrical effect of double co-planar edge cracks on stress intensity factor (K) in femur bone. This research focuses to analyze the amplification effect on the fracture behavior of double co-planar edge cracks, where numerical model is developed using computational method. The concept of fracture mechanics and finite element method (FEM) are used to solve the interacting cracks problems using linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) theory. As a result, this study has shown the identification of the crack interaction limit (CIL) and crack unification limit (CUL) exist in the human femur bone model developed. In future research, several improvements will be made such as varying the load, applying thickness on the model and also use different theory or method in calculating the stress intensity factor (K).

The Crossover Time as an Evaluation of Ocean Models Against Persistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, L. M.; Toumi, R.

2018-01-01

A new ocean evaluation metric, the crossover time, is defined as the time it takes for a numerical model to equal the performance of persistence. As an example, the average crossover time calculated using the Lagrangian separation distance (the distance between simulated trajectories and observed drifters) for the global MERCATOR ocean model analysis is found to be about 6 days. Conversely, the model forecast has an average crossover time longer than 6 days, suggesting limited skill in Lagrangian predictability by the current generation of global ocean models. The crossover time of the velocity error is less than 3 days, which is similar to the average decorrelation time of the observed drifters. The crossover time is a useful measure to quantify future ocean model improvements.

Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; E Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; E Brau, J.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; E Broida, J.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; E Cowan, E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; E Creighton, J. D.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; E Dwyer, S.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernández Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; E Gossan, S.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; E Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; E Holz, D.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; E Lord, J.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; E McClelland, D.; McCormick, S.; McGrath, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; E Mikhailov, E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; E Pace, A.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; E Smith, R. J.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; E Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; E Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S. J.; Zhu, X. J.; E Zucker, M.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Boyle, M.; Chu, T.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; E Kidder, L.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Vano Vinuales, A.

2017-05-01

Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein’s equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analysis on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than  ˜0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.

Modeling and Analysis of Wrinkled Membranes: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, B.; Ding, H.; Lou, M.; Fang, H.; Broduer, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Thin-film membranes are basic elements of a variety of space inflatable/deployable structures. Wrinkling degrades the performance and reliability of these membrane structures, and hence has been a topic of continued interest. Wrinkling analysis of membranes for general geometry and arbitrary boundary conditions is quite challenging. The objective of this presentation is two-fold. Firstly, the existing models of wrinkled membranes and related numerical solution methods are reviewed. The important issues to be discussed are the capability of a membrane model to characterize taut, wrinkled and slack states of membranes in a consistent and physically reasonable manner; the ability of a wrinkling analysis method to predict the formation and growth of wrinkled regions, and to determine out-of-plane deformation and wrinkled waves; the convergence of a numerical solution method for wrinkling analysis; and the compatibility of a wrinkling analysis with general-purpose finite element codes. According to this review, several opening issues in modeling and analysis of wrinkled membranes that are to be addressed in future research are summarized, The second objective of this presentation is to discuss a newly developed membrane model of two viable parameters (2-VP model) and associated parametric finite element method (PFEM) for wrinkling analysis are introduced. The innovations and advantages of the proposed membrane model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis are: (1) Via a unified stress-strain relation; the 2-VP model treat the taut, wrinkled, and slack states of membranes consistently; (2) The PFEM-based wrinkling analysis has guaranteed convergence; (3) The 2-VP model along with PFEM is capable of predicting membrane out-of-plane deformations; and (4) The PFEM can be integrated into any existing finite element code. Preliminary numerical examples are also included in this presentation to demonstrate the 2-VP model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis approach.

Artificial intelligence applied to the automatic analysis of absorption spectra. Objective measurement of the fine structure constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bainbridge, Matthew B.; Webb, John K.

2017-06-01

A new and automated method is presented for the analysis of high-resolution absorption spectra. Three established numerical methods are unified into one `artificial intelligence' process: a genetic algorithm (Genetic Voigt Profile FIT, gvpfit); non-linear least-squares with parameter constraints (vpfit); and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The method has broad application but here we apply it specifically to the problem of measuring the fine structure constant at high redshift. For this we need objectivity and reproducibility. gvpfit is also motivated by the importance of obtaining a large statistical sample of measurements of Δα/α. Interactive analyses are both time consuming and complex and automation makes obtaining a large sample feasible. In contrast to previous methodologies, we use BMA to derive results using a large set of models and show that this procedure is more robust than a human picking a single preferred model since BMA avoids the systematic uncertainties associated with model choice. Numerical simulations provide stringent tests of the whole process and we show using both real and simulated spectra that the unified automated fitting procedure out-performs a human interactive analysis. The method should be invaluable in the context of future instrumentation like ESPRESSO on the VLT and indeed future ELTs. We apply the method to the zabs = 1.8389 absorber towards the zem = 2.145 quasar J110325-264515. The derived constraint of Δα/α = 3.3 ± 2.9 × 10-6 is consistent with no variation and also consistent with the tentative spatial variation reported in Webb et al. and King et al.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Calculating flux to predict future cave radon concentrations.

PubMed

Rowberry, Matt D; Martí, Xavi; Frontera, Carlos; Van De Wiel, Marco J; Briestenský, Miloš

2016-06-01

Cave radon concentration measurements reflect the outcome of a perpetual competition which pitches flux against ventilation and radioactive decay. The mass balance equations used to model changes in radon concentration through time routinely treat flux as a constant. This mathematical simplification is acceptable as a first order approximation despite the fact that it sidesteps an intrinsic geological problem: the majority of radon entering a cavity is exhaled as a result of advection along crustal discontinuities whose motions are inhomogeneous in both time and space. In this paper the dynamic nature of flux is investigated and the results are used to predict cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The first part of our numerical modelling procedure focuses on calculating cave air flow velocity while the second part isolates flux in a mass balance equation to simulate real time dependence among the variables. It is then possible to use this information to deliver an expression for computing cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The dynamic variables in the numerical model are represented by the outer temperature, the inner temperature, and the radon concentration while the static variables are represented by the radioactive decay constant and a range of parameters related to geometry of the cavity. Input data were recorded at Driny Cave in the Little Carpathians Mountains of western Slovakia. Here the cave passages have developed along splays of the NE-SW striking Smolenice Fault and a series of transverse faults striking NW-SE. Independent experimental observations of fault slip are provided by three permanently installed mechanical extensometers. Our numerical modelling has revealed four important flux anomalies between January 2010 and August 2011. Each of these flux anomalies was preceded by conspicuous fault slip anomalies. The mathematical procedure outlined in this paper will help to improve our understanding of radon migration along crustal discontinuities and its subsequent exhalation into the atmosphere. Furthermore, as it is possible to supply the model with continuous data, future research will focus on establishing a series of underground monitoring sites with the aim of generating the first real time global radon flux maps. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxygen Mass Transport in Stented Coronary Arteries.

PubMed

Murphy, Eoin A; Dunne, Adrian S; Martin, David M; Boyle, Fergal J

2016-02-01

Oxygen deficiency, known as hypoxia, in arterial walls has been linked to increased intimal hyperplasia, which is the main adverse biological process causing in-stent restenosis. Stent implantation has significant effects on the oxygen transport into the arterial wall. Elucidating these effects is critical to optimizing future stent designs. In this study the most advanced oxygen transport model developed to date was assessed in two test cases and used to compare three coronary stent designs. Additionally, the predicted results from four simplified blood oxygen transport models are compared in the two test cases. The advanced model showed good agreement with experimental measurements within the mass-transfer boundary layer and at the luminal surface; however, more work is needed in predicting the oxygen transport within the arterial wall. Simplifying the oxygen transport model within the blood flow produces significant errors in predicting the oxygen transport in arteries. This study can be used as a guide for all future numerical studies in this area and the advanced model could provide a powerful tool in aiding design of stents and other cardiovascular devices.

Hierarchy in air travel: Few large and many small

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejan, A.; Chen, R.; Lorente, S.; Wen, C. Y.

2017-07-01

Here, we document the diversity of commercial aircraft models and bodies in use during the past five decades. Special emphasis is on the models that have moved humanity across the globe during the past three decades. The first objective is to show that the apparent diversity is in fact underpinned (sustained) by organization, which is a distinct hierarchy of "few large and many small" coexisting and moving people harmoniously everywhere. The second objective is to rely on the emerging hierarchy in order to predict for the future how few the even bigger models will be and how more numerous the even smaller models (e.g., drones for package delivery) will be, naturally.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

2017-12-01

Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

Efficient Numerical Simulation of Aerothermoelastic Hypersonic Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klock, Ryan J.

Hypersonic vehicles operate in a high-energy flight environment characterized by high dynamic pressures, high thermal loads, and non-equilibrium flow dynamics. This environment induces strong fluid, thermal, and structural dynamics interactions that are unique to this flight regime. If these vehicles are to be effectively designed and controlled, then a robust and intuitive understanding of each of these disciplines must be developed not only in isolation, but also when coupled. Limitations on scaling and the availability of adequate test facilities mean that physical investigation is infeasible. Ever growing computational power offers the ability to perform elaborate numerical simulations, but also has its own limitations. The state of the art in numerical simulation is either to create ever more high-fidelity physics models that do not couple well and require too much processing power to consider more than a few seconds of flight, or to use low-fidelity analytical models that can be tightly coupled and processed quickly, but do not represent realistic systems due to their simplifying assumptions. Reduced-order models offer a middle ground by distilling the dominant trends of high-fidelity training solutions into a form that can be quickly processed and more tightly coupled. This thesis presents a variably coupled, variable-fidelity, aerothermoelastic framework for the simulation and analysis of high-speed vehicle systems using analytical, reduced-order, and surrogate modeling techniques. Full launch-to-landing flights of complete vehicles are considered and used to define flight envelopes with aeroelastic, aerothermal, and thermoelastic limits, tune in-the-loop flight controllers, and inform future design considerations. A partitioned approach to vehicle simulation is considered in which regions dominated by particular combinations of processes are made separate from the overall solution and simulated by a specialized set of models to improve overall processing speed and overall solution fidelity. A number of enhancements to this framework are made through 1. the implementation of a publish-subscribe code architecture for rapid prototyping of physics and process models. 2. the implementation of a selection of linearization and model identification methods including high-order pseudo-time forward difference, complex-step, and direct identification from ordinary differential equation inspection. 3. improvements to the aeroheating and thermal models with non-equilibrium gas dynamics and generalized temperature dependent material thermal properties. A variety of model reduction and surrogate model techniques are applied to a representative hypersonic vehicle on a terminal trajectory to enable complete aerothermoelastic flight simulations. Multiple terminal trajectories of various starting altitudes and Mach numbers are optimized to maximize final kinetic energy of the vehicle upon reaching the surface. Surrogate models are compared to represent the variation of material thermal properties with temperature. A new method is developed and shown to be both accurate and computationally efficient. While the numerically efficient simulation of high-speed vehicles is developed within the presented framework, the goal of real time simulation is hampered by the necessity of multiple nested convergence loops. An alternative all-in-one surrogate model method is developed based on singular-value decomposition and regression that is near real time. Finally, the aeroelastic stability of pressurized cylindrical shells is investigated in the context of a maneuvering axisymmetric high-speed vehicle. Moderate internal pressurization is numerically shown to decrease stability, as showed experimentally in the literature, yet not well reproduced analytically. Insights are drawn from time simulation results and used to inform approaches for future vehicle model development.

MATSIM: Development of a Voxel Model of the MATROSHKA Astronaut Dosimetric Phantom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Peter; Zechner, Andrea; Rollet, Sofia; Berger, Thomas; Bergmann, Robert; Hajek, Michael; Hranitzky, Christian; Latocha, Marcin; Reitz, Günther; Stadtmann, Hannes; Vana, Norbert; Wind, Michael

2011-08-01

The AIT Austrian Institute of Technology coordinates the project MATSIM (MATROSHKA Simulation) in collaboration with the Vienna University of Technology and the German Aerospace Center, to perform FLUKA Monte Carlo simulations of the MATROSHKA numerical phantom irradiated under reference radiation field conditions as well as for the radiation environment at the International Space Station (ISS). MATSIM is carried out as co-investigation of the ESA ELIPS projects SORD and RADIS (commonly known as MATROSHKA), an international collaboration of more than 18 research institutes and space agencies from all over the world, under the science and project lead of the German Aerospace Center. During MATSIM a computer tomography scan of the MATROSHKA phantom has been converted into a high resolution 3-dimensional voxel model. The energy imparted and absorbed dose distribution inside the model is determined for various radiation fields. The major goal of the MATSIM project is the validation of the numerical model under reference radiation conditions and further investigations under the radiation environment at ISS. In this report we compare depth dose distributions inside the phantom measured with thermoluminescence detectors (TLDs) and an ionization chamber with FLUKA Monte Carlo particle transport simulations due to 60Co photon exposure. Further reference irradiations with neutrons, protons and heavy ions are planned. The fully validated numerical model MATSIM will provide a perfect tool to assess the radiation exposure to humans during current and future space missions to ISS, Moon, Mars and beyond.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

The Thistle Field - Analysis of its past performance and optimisation of its future development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayat, M.G.; Tehrani, D.H.

1985-01-01

The Thistle Field geology and its reservoir performance over the past six years have been reviewed. The latest reservoir simulation study of the field, covering the performance history-matching, and the conclusions of various prediction cases are reported. The special features of PORES, Britoil in-house 3D 3-phase fully implicit numerical simulator and its modeling aids as applied to the Thistle Field are presented.

Reservoir Characterization using geostatistical and numerical modeling in GIS with noble gas geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez, D. A.; Swift, J. N.; Tan, S.; Darrah, T. H.

2013-12-01

The integration of precise geochemical analyses with quantitative engineering modeling into an interactive GIS system allows for a sophisticated and efficient method of reservoir engineering and characterization. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is utilized as an advanced technique for oil field reservoir analysis by combining field engineering and geological/geochemical spatial datasets with the available systematic modeling and mapping methods to integrate the information into a spatially correlated first-hand approach in defining surface and subsurface characteristics. Three key methods of analysis include: 1) Geostatistical modeling to create a static and volumetric 3-dimensional representation of the geological body, 2) Numerical modeling to develop a dynamic and interactive 2-dimensional model of fluid flow across the reservoir and 3) Noble gas geochemistry to further define the physical conditions, components and history of the geologic system. Results thus far include using engineering algorithms for interpolating electrical well log properties across the field (spontaneous potential, resistivity) yielding a highly accurate and high-resolution 3D model of rock properties. Results so far also include using numerical finite difference methods (crank-nicholson) to solve for equations describing the distribution of pressure across field yielding a 2D simulation model of fluid flow across reservoir. Ongoing noble gas geochemistry results will also include determination of the source, thermal maturity and the extent/style of fluid migration (connectivity, continuity and directionality). Future work will include developing an inverse engineering algorithm to model for permeability, porosity and water saturation.This combination of new and efficient technological and analytical capabilities is geared to provide a better understanding of the field geology and hydrocarbon dynamics system with applications to determine the presence of hydrocarbon pay zones (or other reserves) and improve oil field management (e.g. perforating, drilling, EOR and reserves estimation)

Numerical and experimental investigation of melting with internal heat generation within cylindrical enclosures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amber Shrivastava; Brian Williams; Ali S. Siahpush

2014-06-01

There have been significant efforts by the heat transfer community to investigate the melting phenomenon of materials. These efforts have included the analytical development of equations to represent melting, numerical development of computer codes to assist in modeling the phenomena, and collection of experimental data. The understanding of the melting phenomenon has application in several areas of interest, for example, the melting of a Phase Change Material (PCM) used as a thermal storage medium as well as the melting of the fuel bundle in a nuclear power plant during an accident scenario. The objective of this research is two-fold. Firstmore » a numerical investigation, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD), of melting with internal heat generation for a vertical cylindrical geometry is presented. Second, to the best of authors knowledge, there are very limited number of engineering experimental results available for the case of melting with Internal Heat Generation (IHG). An experiment was performed to produce such data using resistive, or Joule, heating as the IHG mechanism. The numerical results are compared against the experimental results and showed favorable correlation. Uncertainties in the numerical and experimental analysis are discussed. Based on the numerical and experimental analysis, recommendations are made for future work.« less

Measurements and simulation of liquid films during drainage displacements and snap-off in constricted capillary tubes.

PubMed

Roman, Sophie; Abu-Al-Saud, Moataz O; Tokunaga, Tetsu; Wan, Jiamin; Kovscek, Anthony R; Tchelepi, Hamdi A

2017-12-01

When a wetting liquid is displaced by air in a capillary tube, a wetting film develops between the tube wall and the air that is responsible for the snap-off mechanism of the gas phase. By dissolving a dye in the wetting phase it is possible to relate a measure of the absorbance in the capillary to the thickness of liquid films. These data could be used to compare with cutting edge numerical simulations of the dynamics of snap-off for which experimental and numerical data are lacking. Drainage experiments in constricted capillary tubes were performed where a dyed wetting liquid is displaced by air for varying flow rates. We developed an optical method to measure liquid film thicknesses that range from 3 to 1000μm. The optical measures are validated by comparison with both theory and direct numerical simulations. In a constricted capillary tube we observed, both experimentally and numerically, a phenomenon of snap-off coalescence events in the vicinity of the constriction that bring new insights into our understanding and modeling of two-phase flows. In addition, the good agreement between experiments and numerical simulations gives confidence to use the numerical method for more complex geometries in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Peeling back the lithosphere: Controlling parameters, surface expressions and the future directions in delamination modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göğüş, Oğuz H.; Ueda, Kosuke

2018-06-01

Geodynamical models investigate the rheological and physical properties of the lithosphere that peels back (delaminates) from the upper-middle crust. Meanwhile, model predictions are used to relate to a set of observations in the geological context to the test the validity of delamination. Here, we review numerical and analogue models of delamination from these perspectives and provide a number of first-order topics which future modeling studies may address. Models suggest that the presence of the weak lower crust that resides between the strong mantle lithosphere (at least 100 times more viscous/stronger) and the strong upper crust is necessary to develop delamination. Lower crustal weakening may be induced by melt infiltration, shear heating or it naturally occurs through the jelly sandwich type strength profile of the continental lithosphere. The negative buoyancy of the lithosphere required to facilitate the delamination is induced by the pre-existing ocean subduction and/or the lower crustal eclogitization. Surface expression of the peeling back lithosphere has a distinct transient and migratory imprint on the crust, resulting in rapid surface uplift/subsidence, magmatism, heating and shortening/extension. New generation of geodynamical experiments can explain how different types of melting (e.g hydrated, dry melting) occurs with delamination. Reformation of the lithosphere after removal, three dimensional aspects, and the termination of the process are key investigation areas for future research. The robust model predictions, as with other geodynamic modeling studies should be reconciled with observations.

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.K.; Anderson, D.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.; Houser, P.; Hou, A.; Lang, S.; Lau, W.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kakar, R.;

Laboratory and theoretical models of planetary-scale instabilities and waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart, John E.; Toomre, Juri

1990-01-01

Meteorologists and planetary astronomers interested in large-scale planetary and solar circulations recognize the importance of rotation and stratification in determining the character of these flows. In the past it has been impossible to accurately model the effects of sphericity on these motions in the laboratory because of the invariant relationship between the uni-directional terrestrial gravity and the rotation axis of an experiment. Researchers studied motions of rotating convecting liquids in spherical shells using electrohydrodynamic polarization forces to generate radial gravity, and hence centrally directed buoyancy forces, in the laboratory. The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) experiments performed on Spacelab 3 in 1985 were analyzed. Recent efforts at interpretation led to numerical models of rotating convection with an aim to understand the possible generation of zonal banding on Jupiter and the fate of banana cells in rapidly rotating convection as the heating is made strongly supercritical. In addition, efforts to pose baroclinic wave experiments for future space missions using a modified version of the 1985 instrument led to theoretical and numerical models of baroclinic instability. Rather surprising properties were discovered, which may be useful in generating rational (rather than artificially truncated) models for nonlinear baroclinic instability and baroclinic chaos.

Analytical modeling and numerical simulation of the short-wave infrared electron-injection detectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Movassaghi, Yashar; Fathipour, Morteza; Fathipour, Vala

2016-03-21

This paper describes comprehensive analytical and simulation models for the design and optimization of the electron-injection based detectors. The electron-injection detectors evaluated here operate in the short-wave infrared range and utilize a type-II band alignment in InP/GaAsSb/InGaAs material system. The unique geometry of detectors along with an inherent negative-feedback mechanism in the device allows for achieving high internal avalanche-free amplifications without any excess noise. Physics-based closed-form analytical models are derived for the detector rise time and dark current. Our optical gain model takes into account the drop in the optical gain at high optical power levels. Furthermore, numerical simulation studiesmore » of the electrical characteristics of the device show good agreement with our analytical models as well experimental data. Performance comparison between devices with different injector sizes shows that enhancement in the gain and speed is anticipated by reducing the injector size. Sensitivity analysis for the key detector parameters shows the relative importance of each parameter. The results of this study may provide useful information and guidelines for development of future electron-injection based detectors as well as other heterojunction photodetectors.« less

Application of mathematical models to metronomic chemotherapy: What can be inferred from minimal parameterized models?

PubMed

Ledzewicz, Urszula; Schättler, Heinz

2017-08-10

Metronomic chemotherapy refers to the frequent administration of chemotherapy at relatively low, minimally toxic doses without prolonged treatment interruptions. Different from conventional or maximum-tolerated-dose chemotherapy which aims at an eradication of all malignant cells, in a metronomic dosing the goal often lies in the long-term management of the disease when eradication proves elusive. Mathematical modeling and subsequent analysis (theoretical as well as numerical) have become an increasingly more valuable tool (in silico) both for determining conditions under which specific treatment strategies should be preferred and for numerically optimizing treatment regimens. While elaborate, computationally-driven patient specific schemes that would optimize the timing and drug dose levels are still a part of the future, such procedures may become instrumental in making chemotherapy effective in situations where it currently fails. Ideally, mathematical modeling and analysis will develop into an additional decision making tool in the complicated process that is the determination of efficient chemotherapy regimens. In this article, we review some of the results that have been obtained about metronomic chemotherapy from mathematical models and what they infer about the structure of optimal treatment regimens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila.

PubMed

Westphal, Michael F; Stewart, Joseph A E; Tennant, Erin N; Butterfield, H Scott; Sinervo, Barry

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.

An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Washington, W. M.; Parkinson, C. L.

1986-01-01

The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

Performance Analysis of Transposition Models Simulating Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-06-02

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined photovoltaic panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this work aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results show significant differences between two highly used isotropic transposition models, with one substantially underestimating the diffuse plane-of-array irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of the empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study can bemore » used as a guide for the future development of physics-based transposition models and evaluations of system performance.« less

Introduction. Pliocene climate, processes and problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Valdes, P.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Francis, J.E.; Sellwood, B.W.

2009-01-01

Climate predictions produced by numerical climate models, often referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), suggest that by the end of the twenty-first century global mean annual surface air temperatures will increase by 1.1-6.4??C. Trace gas records from ice cores indicate that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are already higher than at any time during the last 650000 years. In the next 50 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to reach a level not encountered since an epoch of time known as the Pliocene. Uniformitarianism is a key principle of geological science, but can the past also be a guide to the future? To what extent does an examination of the Pliocene geological record enable us to successfully understand and interpret this guide? How reliable are the 'retrodictions' of Pliocene climates produced by GCMs and what does this tell us about the accuracy of model predictions for the future? These questions provide the scientific rationale for this Theme Issue. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Empirical correlations of the performance of vapor-anode PX-series AMTEC cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, L.; Merrill, J.M.; Mayberry, C.

Power systems based on AMTEC technology will be used for future NASA missions, including a Pluto-Express (PX) or Europa mission planned for approximately year 2004. AMTEC technology may also be used as an alternative to photovoltaic based power systems for future Air Force missions. An extensive development program of Alkali-Metal Thermal-to-Electric Conversion (AMTEC) technology has been underway at the Vehicle Technologies Branch of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico since 1992. Under this program, numerical modeling and experimental investigations of the performance of the various multi-BASE tube, vapor-anode AMTEC cells have been and are being performed.more » Vacuum testing of AMTEC cells at AFRL determines the effects of changing the hot and cold end temperatures, T{sub hot} and T{sub cold}, and applied external load, R{sub ext}, on the cell electric power output, current-voltage characteristics, and conversion efficiency. Test results have traditionally been used to provide feedback to cell designers, and to validate numerical models. The current work utilizes the test data to develop empirical correlations for cell output performance under various working conditions. Because the empirical correlations are developed directly from the experimental data, uncertainties arising from material properties that must be used in numerical modeling can be avoided. Empirical correlations of recent vapor-anode PX-series AMTEC cells have been developed. Based on AMTEC theory and the experimental data, the cell output power (as well as voltage and current) was correlated as a function of three parameters (T{sub hot}, T{sub cold}, and R{sub ext}) for a given cell. Correlations were developed for different cells (PX-3C, PX-3A, PX-G3, and PX-5A), and were in good agreement with experimental data for these cells. Use of these correlations can greatly reduce the testing required to determine electrical performance of a given type of AMTEC cell over a wide range of operating conditions.« less

Computational biomechanics to simulate the femoropopliteal intersection during knee flexion: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Diehm, Nicolas; Sin, Sangmun; Hoppe, Hanno; Baumgartner, Iris; Büchler, Philippe

2011-06-01

To assess if finite element (FE) models can be used to predict deformation of the femoropopliteal segment during knee flexion. Magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) images were acquired on the lower limbs of 8 healthy volunteers (5 men; mean age 28 ± 4 years). Images were taken in 2 natural positions, with the lower limb fully extended and with the knee bent at ~ 40°. Patient-specific FE models were developed and used to simulate the experimental situation. The displacements of the artery during knee bending as predicted by the numerical model were compared to the corresponding positions measured on the MRA images. The numerical predictions showed a good overall agreement between the calculated displacements of the motion measures from MRA images. The average position error comparing the calculated vs. actual displacements of the femoropopliteal intersection measured on the MRA was 8 ± 4 mm. Two of the 8 subjects showed large prediction errors (average 13 ± 5 mm); these 2 volunteers were the tallest subjects involved in the study and had a low body mass index (20.5 kg/m²). The present computational model is able to capture the gross mechanical environment of the femoropopliteal intersection during knee bending and provide a better understanding of the complex biomechanical behavior. However, results suggest that patient-specific mechanical properties and detailed muscle modeling are required to provide accurate patient-specific numerical predictions of arterial displacement. Further adaptation of this model is expected to provide an improved ability to predict the multiaxial deformation of this arterial segment during leg movements and to optimize future stent designs.

Numerical simulation of disperse particle flows on a graphics processing unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierakowski, Adam J.

In both nature and technology, we commonly encounter solid particles being carried within fluid flows, from dust storms to sediment erosion and from food processing to energy generation. The motion of uncountably many particles in highly dynamic flow environments characterizes the tremendous complexity of such phenomena. While methods exist for the full-scale numerical simulation of such systems, current computational capabilities require the simplification of the numerical task with significant approximation using closure models widely recognized as insufficient. There is therefore a fundamental need for the investigation of the underlying physical processes governing these disperse particle flows. In the present work, we develop a new tool based on the Physalis method for the first-principles numerical simulation of thousands of particles (a small fraction of an entire disperse particle flow system) in order to assist in the search for new reduced-order closure models. We discuss numerous enhancements to the efficiency and stability of the Physalis method, which introduces the influence of spherical particles to a fixed-grid incompressible Navier-Stokes flow solver using a local analytic solution to the flow equations. Our first-principles investigation demands the modeling of unresolved length and time scales associated with particle collisions. We introduce a collision model alongside Physalis, incorporating lubrication effects and proposing a new nonlinearly damped Hertzian contact model. By reproducing experimental studies from the literature, we document extensive validation of the methods. We discuss the implementation of our methods for massively parallel computation using a graphics processing unit (GPU). We combine Eulerian grid-based algorithms with Lagrangian particle-based algorithms to achieve computational throughput up to 90 times faster than the legacy implementation of Physalis for a single central processing unit. By avoiding all data communication between the GPU and the host system during the simulation, we utilize with great efficacy the GPU hardware with which many high performance computing systems are currently equipped. We conclude by looking forward to the future of Physalis with multi-GPU parallelization in order to perform resolved disperse flow simulations of more than 100,000 particles and further advance the development of reduced-order closure models.

Thermal evolution of a hyperextended rift basin, Mauléon Basin, western Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Nicole R.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Lavier, Luc L.; Hayman, Nicholas W.

2017-06-01

Onshore and offshore geological and geophysical observations and numerical modeling have greatly improved the conceptual understanding of magma-poor rifted margins. However, critical questions remain concerning the thermal evolution of the prerift to synrift phases of thinning ending with the formation of hyperextended crust and mantle exhumation. In the western Pyrenees, the Mauléon Basin preserves the structural and stratigraphic record of Cretaceous extension, exhumation, and sedimentation of the proximal-to-distal margin development. Pyrenean shortening uplifted basement and overlying sedimentary basins without pervasive shortening or reheating, making the Mauléon Basin an ideal locality to study the temporal and thermal evolution of magma-poor hyperextended rift systems through coupling bedrock and detrital zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometric data from transects characterizing different structural rifting domains. These new data indicate that the basin was heated during early rifting to >180°C with geothermal gradients of 80-100°C/km. The proximal margin recorded rift-related exhumation/cooling at circa 98 Ma, whereas the distal margin remained >180°C until the onset of Paleocene Pyrenean shortening. Lithospheric-scale numerical modeling shows that high geothermal gradients, >80°C/km, and synrift sediments >180°C, can be reached early in rift evolution via heat advection by lithospheric depth-dependent thinning and blanketing caused by the lower thermal conductivity of synrift sediments. Mauléon Basin thermochronometric data and numerical modeling illustrate that reheating of basement and synrift strata might play an important role and should be considered in the future development of conceptual and numerical models for hyperextended magma-poor continental rifted margins.

Laser-optical and numerical Research of the flow inside the lubricating gap of a journal bearing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobis, M.; Stücke, P.; Schmidt, M.; Riedel, M.

2013-04-01

The laser-optical research of the flow inside the lubricating gap of a journal bearing model is one important task in a larger overall project. The long-term objective is the development of an easy-to-work calculation tool which delivers information about the causes and consequences of cavitation processes in hydrodynamically lubricated journal bearings. Hence, it will be possible to find statements for advantageous and disadvantageous geometrical shapes of the bushings. In conclusion such a calculation tool can provide important insights for the construction and design of future journal bearings. Current design programs are based on a two-dimensional approach for the lubricating gap. The first dimension is the breath of the bearing and the second dimension is the circumferential direction of the bearing. The third dimension, the expansion of the gap in radial direction, will be neglected. Instead of an exact resolution of the flow pattern inside the gap, turbulence models are in use. Past studies on numerical and experimental field have shown that inside the lubricating gap clearly organized and predominantly laminar flow structures can be found. Thus, for a detailed analysis of the reasons and effects of cavitation bubbles, a three-dimensional resolution of the lubricating gap is inevitable. In addition to the qualitative evaluation of the flow with visualization experiments it is possible to perform angle-based velocity measurements inside the gap with the help of a triggered Laser-Doppler- Velocimeter (LDV). The results of these measurements are used to validate three-dimensional CFD flow simulations, and to optimize the numerical mesh structure and the boundary conditions. This paper will present the experimental setup of the bearing model, some exemplary results of the visualization experiments and LDV measurements as well as a comparison between experimental and numerical results.

Comprehensive model of a hermetic reciprocating compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Ziviani, D.; Groll, E. A.

2017-08-01

A comprehensive simulation model is presented to predict the performance of a hermetic reciprocating compressor and to reveal the underlying mechanisms when the compressor is running. The presented model is composed of sub-models simulating the in-cylinder compression process, piston ring/journal bearing frictional power loss, single phase induction motor and the overall compressor energy balance among different compressor components. The valve model, leakage through piston ring model and in-cylinder heat transfer model are also incorporated into the in-cylinder compression process model. A numerical algorithm solving the model is introduced. The predicted results of the compressor mass flow rate and input power consumption are compared to the published compressor map values. Future work will focus on detailed experimental validation of the model and parametric studies investigating the effects of structural parameters, including the stroke-to-bore ratio, on the compressor performance.

MODELING THE ENDOCRINE CONTROL OF VITELLOGENIN PRODUCTION IN FEMALE RAINBOW TROUT

PubMed Central

Sundling, Kaitlin; Craciun, Gheorghe; Schultz, Irvin; Hook, Sharon; Nagler, James; Cavileer, Tim; Verducci, Joseph; Liu, Yushi; Kim, Jonghan; Hayton, William

2015-01-01

The rainbow trout endocrine system is sensitive to changes in annual day length, which is likely the principal environmental cue controlling its reproductive cycle. This study focuses on the endocrine regulation of vitellogenin (Vg) protein synthesis, which is the major egg yolk precursor in this fish species. We present a model of Vg production in female rainbow trout which incorporates a biological pathway beginning with sex steroid estradiol-17β levels in the plasma and concluding with Vg secretion by the liver and sequestration in the oocytes. Numerical simulation results based on this model are compared with experimental data for estrogen receptor mRNA, Vg mRNA, and Vg in the plasma from female rainbow trout over a normal annual reproductive cycle. We also analyze the response of the model to parameter changes. The model is subsequently tested against experimental data from female trout under a compressed photoperiod regime. Comparison of numerical and experimental results suggests the possibility of a time-dependent change in oocyte Vg uptake rate. This model is part of a larger effort that is developing a mathematical description of the endocrine control of reproduction in female rainbow trout. We anticipate that these mathematical and computational models will play an important role in future regulatory toxicity assessments and in the prediction of ecological risk. PMID:24506554

Interactive access and management for four-dimensional environmental data sets using McIDAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibbard, William L.; Tripoli, Gregory J.

1991-01-01

Significant accomplishments in the following areas are presented: (1) enhancements to the visualization of 5-D data sets (VIS-5D); (2) development of the visualization of global images (VIS-GI) application; (3) design of the Visualization for Algorithm Development (VIS-AD) System; and (4) numerical modeling applications. The focus of current research and future research plans is presented and the following topics are addressed: (1) further enhancements to VIS-5D; (2) generalization and enhancement of the VIS-GI application; (3) the implementation of the VIS-AD System; and (4) plans for modeling applications.

Tests of subsurface storage of freshwater at Hialeah, Dade County, Florida, and numerical simulation of the salinity of recovered water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merritt, Michael L.

1997-01-01

This paper presents and interprets data from three cycles of injection, storage, and recovery of freshwater in a brackish aquifer through wells drilled at the Hialeah Water Treatment Plant in northeastern Dade County, Florida. Also described is an application of solute-transport modeling techniques to depict the hypothetical movement of the freshwater mass and to simulate the increasing salinity of the recovered water during the withdrawal phases. This paper also reports results of use of the calibrated model to predict recovery efficiencies in hypothetical future operational schedules of injection and recovery.

Atmospheric Effects of Subsonic Aircraft: Interim Assessment Report of the Advanced Subsonic Technology Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedl, Randall R. (Editor)

1997-01-01

This first interim assessment of the subsonic assessment (SASS) project attempts to summarize concisely the status of our knowledge concerning the impacts of present and future subsonic aircraft fleets. It also highlights the major areas of scientific uncertainty, through review of existing data bases and model-based sensitivity studies. In view of the need for substantial improvements in both model formulations and experimental databases, this interim assessment cannot provide confident numerical predictions of aviation impacts. However, a number of quantitative estimates are presented, which provide some guidance to policy makers.

Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abarbanel, Henry; Gill, Philip

In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.

Observing system simulations using synthetic radiances and atmospheric retrievals derived for the AMSU and HIRS in a mesoscale model. [Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diak, George R.; Huang, Hung-Lung; Kim, Dongsoo

1990-01-01

The paper addresses the concept of synthetic satellite imagery as a visualization and diagnostic tool for understanding satellite sensors of the future and to detail preliminary results on the quality of soundings from the current sensors. Preliminary results are presented on the quality of soundings from the combination of the High-Resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. Results are also presented on the first Observing System Simulation Experiment using this data in a mesoscale numerical prediction model.

Corrected Four-Sphere Head Model for EEG Signals.

PubMed

Næss, Solveig; Chintaluri, Chaitanya; Ness, Torbjørn V; Dale, Anders M; Einevoll, Gaute T; Wójcik, Daniel K

2017-01-01

The EEG signal is generated by electrical brain cell activity, often described in terms of current dipoles. By applying EEG forward models we can compute the contribution from such dipoles to the electrical potential recorded by EEG electrodes. Forward models are key both for generating understanding and intuition about the neural origin of EEG signals as well as inverse modeling, i.e., the estimation of the underlying dipole sources from recorded EEG signals. Different models of varying complexity and biological detail are used in the field. One such analytical model is the four-sphere model which assumes a four-layered spherical head where the layers represent brain tissue, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), skull, and scalp, respectively. While conceptually clear, the mathematical expression for the electric potentials in the four-sphere model is cumbersome, and we observed that the formulas presented in the literature contain errors. Here, we derive and present the correct analytical formulas with a detailed derivation. A useful application of the analytical four-sphere model is that it can serve as ground truth to test the accuracy of numerical schemes such as the Finite Element Method (FEM). We performed FEM simulations of the four-sphere head model and showed that they were consistent with the corrected analytical formulas. For future reference we provide scripts for computing EEG potentials with the four-sphere model, both by means of the correct analytical formulas and numerical FEM simulations.

Corrected Four-Sphere Head Model for EEG Signals

PubMed Central

Næss, Solveig; Chintaluri, Chaitanya; Ness, Torbjørn V.; Dale, Anders M.; Einevoll, Gaute T.; Wójcik, Daniel K.

2017-01-01

The EEG signal is generated by electrical brain cell activity, often described in terms of current dipoles. By applying EEG forward models we can compute the contribution from such dipoles to the electrical potential recorded by EEG electrodes. Forward models are key both for generating understanding and intuition about the neural origin of EEG signals as well as inverse modeling, i.e., the estimation of the underlying dipole sources from recorded EEG signals. Different models of varying complexity and biological detail are used in the field. One such analytical model is the four-sphere model which assumes a four-layered spherical head where the layers represent brain tissue, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), skull, and scalp, respectively. While conceptually clear, the mathematical expression for the electric potentials in the four-sphere model is cumbersome, and we observed that the formulas presented in the literature contain errors. Here, we derive and present the correct analytical formulas with a detailed derivation. A useful application of the analytical four-sphere model is that it can serve as ground truth to test the accuracy of numerical schemes such as the Finite Element Method (FEM). We performed FEM simulations of the four-sphere head model and showed that they were consistent with the corrected analytical formulas. For future reference we provide scripts for computing EEG potentials with the four-sphere model, both by means of the correct analytical formulas and numerical FEM simulations. PMID:29093671

Numerical investigation of nonlinear interactions between multimodal guided waves and delamination in composite structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yanfeng

2017-04-01

This paper presents a numerical investigation of the nonlinear interactions between multimodal guided waves and delamination in composite structures. The elastodynamic wave equations for anisotropic composite laminate were formulated using an explicit Local Interaction Simulation Approach (LISA). The contact dynamics was modeled using the penalty method. In order to capture the stick-slip contact motion, a Coulomb friction law was integrated into the computation procedure. A random gap function was defined for the contact pairs to model distributed initial closures or openings to approximate the nature of rough delamination interfaces. The LISA procedure was coded using the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA), which enables the highly parallelized computation on powerful graphic cards. Several guided wave modes centered at various frequencies were investigated as the incident wave. Numerical case studies of different delamination locations across the thickness were carried out. The capability of different wave modes at various frequencies to trigger the Contact Acoustic Nonlinearity (CAN) was studied. The correlation between the delamination size and the signal nonlinearity was also investigated. Furthermore, the influence from the roughness of the delamination interfaces was discussed as well. The numerical investigation shows that the nonlinear features of wave delamination interactions can enhance the evaluation capability of guided wave Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system. This paper finishes with discussion, concluding remarks, and suggestions for future work.

Coupled numerical modeling of gas hydrates bearing sediments from laboratory to field-scale conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, M. J.; Santamarina, C.; Gai, X., Sr.; Teymouri, M., Sr.

2017-12-01

Stability and behavior of Hydrate Bearing Sediments (HBS) are characterized by the metastable character of the gas hydrate structure which strongly depends on thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical (THCM) actions. Hydrate formation, dissociation and methane production from hydrate bearing sediments are coupled THCM processes that involve, amongst other, exothermic formation and endothermic dissociation of hydrate and ice phases, mixed fluid flow and large changes in fluid pressure. The analysis of available data from past field and laboratory experiments, and the optimization of future field production studies require a formal and robust numerical framework able to capture the very complex behavior of this type of soil. A comprehensive fully coupled THCM formulation has been developed and implemented into a finite element code to tackle problems involving gas hydrates sediments. Special attention is paid to the geomechanical behavior of HBS, and particularly to their response upon hydrate dissociation under loading. The numerical framework has been validated against recent experiments conducted under controlled conditions in the laboratory that challenge the proposed approach and highlight the complex interaction among THCM processes in HBS. The performance of the models in these case studies is highly satisfactory. Finally, the numerical code is applied to analyze the behavior of gas hydrate soils under field-scale conditions exploring different features of material behavior under possible reservoir conditions.

Numerical investigations of internal stresses on carbon steel based on ultrasonic LCR waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramasamy, R.; Ibrahim, Z.; Chai, H. K.

2017-10-01

Internal stresses or residual stresses in the structural elements are very crucial in carrying out in-service evaluations and fitness-for-purpose assessments. The generation of these internal stresses can occur as result of the fabrication of the steel members, installation sequence or other ad-hoc events such as accidents or impact. The accurate prediction of the internal stresses will contribute towards estimating the integrity state of the structural elements, with respect to their material allowable stresses. This paper investigates the explicit FE based numerical modelling of the ultrasonic based non-destructive technique, utilising the measurable longitudinal critical refracted wave (LCR) and relating these to the internal stresses within the structural elements by the evaluation of the material dependent acoustoelastic factors. The subsurface travel path of the LCR wave inside the structural elements makes it a sub-surface stress measurement technique and the linearised relationship with corresponding internal stresses can be systematically applied repeatedly. The numerical results are compared against laboratory tests data to correlate the findings and to establish modelling feasibility for future proof-of-concepts. It can be concluded from this numerical investigation, that the subsurface ultrasonic LCR wave has great potential to be implemented for in-situ structural residual stress measurements, as compared to other available surface measurements such as strain gauges or x-ray diffraction.

Basic Requirements for Systems Software Research and Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuszmaul, Chris; Nitzberg, Bill

1996-01-01

Our success over the past ten years evaluating and developing advanced computing technologies has been due to a simple research and development (R/D) model. Our model has three phases: (a) evaluating the state-of-the-art, (b) identifying problems and creating innovations, and (c) developing solutions, improving the state- of-the-art. This cycle has four basic requirements: a large production testbed with real users, a diverse collection of state-of-the-art hardware, facilities for evalua- tion of emerging technologies and development of innovations, and control over system management on these testbeds. Future research will be irrelevant and future products will not work if any of these requirements is eliminated. In order to retain our effectiveness, the numerical aerospace simulator (NAS) must replace out-of-date production testbeds in as timely a fashion as possible, and cannot afford to ignore innovative designs such as new distributed shared memory machines, clustered commodity-based computers, and multi-threaded architectures.

Modeling multi-GeV class laser-plasma accelerators with INF&RNO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedetti, Carlo; Schroeder, Carl; Bulanov, Stepan; Geddes, Cameron; Esarey, Eric; Leemans, Wim

2016-10-01

Laser plasma accelerators (LPAs) can produce accelerating gradients on the order of tens to hundreds of GV/m, making them attractive as compact particle accelerators for radiation production or as drivers for future high-energy colliders. Understanding and optimizing the performance of LPAs requires detailed numerical modeling of the nonlinear laser-plasma interaction. We present simulation results, obtained with the computationally efficient, PIC/fluid code INF&RNO (INtegrated Fluid & paRticle simulatioN cOde), concerning present (multi-GeV stages) and future (10 GeV stages) LPA experiments performed with the BELLA PW laser system at LBNL. In particular, we will illustrate the issues related to the guiding of a high-intensity, short-pulse, laser when a realistic description for both the laser driver and the background plasma is adopted. Work Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

A preliminary evaluation of nearhore extreme sea level and wave models for fringing reef environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoeke, R. K.; Reyns, J.; O'Grady, J.; Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.; Roelvink, J. A.

2016-02-01

Oceanic islands are widely perceived as vulnerable to sea level rise and are characterized by steep nearshore topography and fringing reefs. In such settings, near shore dynamics and (non-tidal) water level variability tends to be dominated by wind-wave processes. These processes are highly sensitive to reef morphology and roughness and to regional wave climate. Thus sea level extremes tend to be highly localized and their likelihood can be expected to change in the future (beyond simple extrapolation of sea level rise scenarios): e.g. sea level rise may increase the effective mean depth of reef crests and flats and ocean acidification and/or increased temperatures may lead to changes in reef structure. The problem is sufficiently complex that analytic or numerical approaches are necessary to estimate current hazards and explore potential future changes. In this study, we evaluate the capacity of several analytic/empirical approaches and phase-averaged and phase-resolved numerical models at sites in the insular tropical Pacific. We consider their ability to predict time-averaged wave setup and instantaneous water level exceedance probability (or dynamic wave run-up) as well as computational cost; where possible, we compare the model results with in situ observations from a number of previous studies. Preliminary results indicate analytic approaches are by far the most computationally efficient, but tend to perform poorly when alongshore straight and parallel morphology cannot be assumed. Phase-averaged models tend to perform well with respect to wave setup in such situations, but are unable to predict processes related to individual waves or wave groups, such as infragravity motions or wave run-up. Phase-resolved models tend to perform best, but come at high computational cost, an important consideration when exploring possible future scenarios. A new approach of combining an unstructured computational grid with a quasi-phase averaged approach (i.e. only phase resolving motions below a frequency cutoff) shows promise as a good compromise between computational efficiency and resolving processes such as wave runup and overtopping in more complex bathymetric situations.

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms,more » were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.« less

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Mei, Rui; Kabela, Erik D.; Gangrade, Sudershan; Naz, Bibi S.; Preston, Benjamin L.; Singh, Nagendra; Anantharaj, Valentine G.

2017-05-01

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserve more in-depth examination.

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

DOE PAGES

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-04-13

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms,more » were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.« less

Tsunami-induced morphological change of a coastal lake: comparing hydraulic experiment with numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugawara, D.; Imai, K.; Mitobe, Y.; Takahashi, T.

2016-12-01

Coastal lakes are one of the promising environments to identify deposits of past tsunamis, and such deposits have been an important key to know the recurrence of tsunami events. In contrast to tsunami deposits on the coastal plains, however, relationship between deposit geometry and tsunami hydrodynamic character in the coastal lakes has poorly been understood. Flume experiment and numerical modeling will be important measures to clarify such relationship. In this study, data from a series of flume experiment were compared with simulations by an existing tsunami sediment transport model to examine applicability of the numerical model for tsunami-induced morphological change in a coastal lake. A coastal lake with a non-erodible beach ridge was modeled as the target geomorphology. The ridge separates the lake from the offshore part of the flume, and the lake bottom was filled by sand. Tsunami bore was generated by a dam-break flow, which is capable of generating a maximum near-bed flow speed of 2.5 m/s. Test runs with varying magnitude of the bore demonstrated that the duration of tsunami overflow controls the scouring depth of the lake bottom behind the ridge. The maximum scouring depth reached up to 7 cm, and sand deposition occurred mainly in the seaward-half of the lake. A conventional depth-averaged tsunami hydrodynamic model coupled with the sediment transport model was used to compare the simulation and experimental results. In the Simulation, scouring depth behind the ridge reached up to 6 cm. In addition, the width of the scouring was consistent between the simulation and experiment. However, sand deposition occurred mainly in a zone much far from the ridge, showing a considerable deviation from the experimental results. This may be associated with the lack of model capability to resolve some important physics, such as vortex generation behind the ridge and shoreward migration of hydraulic jump. In this presentation, the results from the flume experiment and the numerical modeling will be compared in detail, including temporal evolution of the morphological change. In addition, model applicability and future improvements will be discussed.

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

On meeting capital requirements with a chance-constrained optimization model.

PubMed

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yu, Bo; Gu, Lanlan

2016-01-01

This paper deals with a capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model in the presence of loans, treasury bill, fixed assets and non-interest earning assets. To model the dynamics of loans, we introduce a modified CreditMetrics approach. This leads to development of a deterministic convex counterpart of capital to risk asset ratio chance constraint. We pursue the scope of analyzing our model under the worst-case scenario i.e. loan default. The theoretical model is analyzed by applying numerical procedures, in order to administer valuable insights from a financial outlook. Our results suggest that, our capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model guarantees banks of meeting capital requirements of Basel III with a likelihood of 95 % irrespective of changes in future market value of assets.

SENR /NRPy + : Numerical relativity in singular curvilinear coordinate systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruchlin, Ian; Etienne, Zachariah B.; Baumgarte, Thomas W.

2018-03-01

We report on a new open-source, user-friendly numerical relativity code package called SENR /NRPy + . Our code extends previous implementations of the BSSN reference-metric formulation to a much broader class of curvilinear coordinate systems, making it ideally suited to modeling physical configurations with approximate or exact symmetries. In the context of modeling black hole dynamics, it is orders of magnitude more efficient than other widely used open-source numerical relativity codes. NRPy + provides a Python-based interface in which equations are written in natural tensorial form and output at arbitrary finite difference order as highly efficient C code, putting complex tensorial equations at the scientist's fingertips without the need for an expensive software license. SENR provides the algorithmic framework that combines the C codes generated by NRPy + into a functioning numerical relativity code. We validate against two other established, state-of-the-art codes, and achieve excellent agreement. For the first time—in the context of moving puncture black hole evolutions—we demonstrate nearly exponential convergence of constraint violation and gravitational waveform errors to zero as the order of spatial finite difference derivatives is increased, while fixing the numerical grids at moderate resolution in a singular coordinate system. Such behavior outside the horizons is remarkable, as numerical errors do not converge to zero near punctures, and all points along the polar axis are coordinate singularities. The formulation addresses such coordinate singularities via cell-centered grids and a simple change of basis that analytically regularizes tensor components with respect to the coordinates. Future plans include extending this formulation to allow dynamical coordinate grids and bispherical-like distribution of points to efficiently capture orbiting compact binary dynamics.

Mapping nonlinear shallow-water tides: a look at the past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Ole B.; Egbert, Gary D.; Erofeeva, Svetlana Y.; Ray, Richard D.

2006-12-01

Overtides and compound tides are generated by nonlinear mechanisms operative primarily in shallow waters. Their presence complicates tidal analysis owing to the multitude of new constituents and their possible frequency overlap with astronomical tides. The science of nonlinear tides was greatly advanced by the pioneering researches of Christian Le Provost who employed analytical theory, physical modeling, and numerical modeling in many extensive studies, especially of the tides of the English Channel. Le Provost’s complementary work with satellite altimetry motivates our attempts to merge these two interests. After a brief review, we describe initial steps toward the assimilation of altimetry into models of nonlinear tides via generalized inverse methods. A series of barotropic inverse solutions is computed for the M_4 tide over the northwest European Shelf. Future applications of altimetry to regions with fewer in situ measurements will require improved understanding of error covariance models because these control the tradeoffs between fitting hydrodynamics and data, a delicate issue in coastal regions. While M_4 can now be robustly determined along the Topex/Poseidon satellite ground tracks, many other compound tides face serious aliasing problems.

Comparison of Stream Temperature Modeling Approaches: The Case of a High Alpine Watershed in the Context of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallice, A.

2015-12-01

Stream temperature controls important aspects of the riverine habitat, such as the rate of spawning or death of many fish species, or the concentration of numerous dissolved substances. In the current context of accelerating climate change, the future evolution of stream temperature is regarded as uncertain, particularly in the Alps. This uncertainty fostered the development of many prediction models, which are usually classified in two categories: mechanistic models and statistical models. Based on the numerical resolution of physical conservation laws, mechanistic models are generally considered to provide more reliable long-term estimates than regression models. However, despite their physical basis, these models are observed to differ quite significantly in some aspects of their implementation, notably (1) the routing of water in the river channel and (2) the estimation of the temperature of groundwater discharging into the stream. For each one of these two aspects, we considered several of the standard modeling approaches reported in the literature and implemented them in a new modular framework. The latter is based on the spatially-distributed snow model Alpine3D, which is essentially used in the framework to compute the amount of water infiltrating in the upper soil layer. Starting from there, different methods can be selected for the computation of the water and energy fluxes in the hillslopes and in the river network. We relied on this framework to compare the various methodologies for river channel routing and groundwater temperature modeling. We notably assessed the impact of each these approaches on the long-term stream temperature predictions of the model under a typical climate change scenario. The case study was conducted over a high Alpine catchment in Switzerland, whose hydrological and thermal regimes are expected to be markedly affected by climate change. The results show that the various modeling approaches lead to significant differences in the model predictions, and that these differences may be larger than the uncertainties in future air temperature. It is also shown that the temperature of groundwater discharging into the stream has a marked impact on the modeled stream temperature at the catchment outlet.

NUMERICAL FLOW AND TRANSPORT SIMULATIONS SUPPORTING THE SALTSTONE FACILITY PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flach, G.

2009-02-28

The Saltstone Disposal Facility Performance Assessment (PA) is being revised to incorporate requirements of Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA), and updated data and understanding of vault performance since the 1992 PA (Cook and Fowler 1992) and related Special Analyses. A hybrid approach was chosen for modeling contaminant transport from vaults and future disposal cells to exposure points. A higher resolution, largely deterministic, analysis is performed on a best-estimate Base Case scenario using the PORFLOW numerical analysis code. a few additional sensitivity cases are simulated to examine alternative scenarios andmore » parameter settings. Stochastic analysis is performed on a simpler representation of the SDF system using the GoldSim code to estimate uncertainty and sensitivity about the Base Case. This report describes development of PORFLOW models supporting the SDF PA, and presents sample results to illustrate model behaviors and define impacts relative to key facility performance objectives. The SDF PA document, when issued, should be consulted for a comprehensive presentation of results.« less

The COPERNIC3 project: how AREVA is successfully developing an advanced global fuel rod performance code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garnier, Ch.; Mailhe, P.; Sontheimer, F.

2007-07-01

Fuel performance is a key factor for minimizing operating costs in nuclear plants. One of the important aspects of fuel performance is fuel rod design, based upon reliable tools able to verify the safety of current fuel solutions, prevent potential issues in new core managements and guide the invention of tomorrow's fuels. AREVA is developing its future global fuel rod code COPERNIC3, which is able to calculate the thermal-mechanical behavior of advanced fuel rods in nuclear plants. Some of the best practices to achieve this goal are described, by reviewing the three pillars of a fuel rod code: the database,more » the modelling and the computer and numerical aspects. At first, the COPERNIC3 database content is described, accompanied by the tools developed to effectively exploit the data. Then is given an overview of the main modelling aspects, by emphasizing the thermal, fission gas release and mechanical sub-models. In the last part, numerical solutions are detailed in order to increase the computational performance of the code, with a presentation of software configuration management solutions. (authors)« less

Man, mind, and machine: the past and future of virtual reality simulation in neurologic surgery.

PubMed

Robison, R Aaron; Liu, Charles Y; Apuzzo, Michael L J

2011-11-01

To review virtual reality in neurosurgery, including the history of simulation and virtual reality and some of the current implementations; to examine some of the technical challenges involved; and to propose a potential paradigm for the development of virtual reality in neurosurgery going forward. A search was made on PubMed using key words surgical simulation, virtual reality, haptics, collision detection, and volumetric modeling to assess the current status of virtual reality in neurosurgery. Based on previous results, investigators extrapolated the possible integration of existing efforts and potential future directions. Simulation has a rich history in surgical training, and there are numerous currently existing applications and systems that involve virtual reality. All existing applications are limited to specific task-oriented functions and typically sacrifice visual realism for real-time interactivity or vice versa, owing to numerous technical challenges in rendering a virtual space in real time, including graphic and tissue modeling, collision detection, and direction of the haptic interface. With ongoing technical advancements in computer hardware and graphic and physical rendering, incremental or modular development of a fully immersive, multipurpose virtual reality neurosurgical simulator is feasible. The use of virtual reality in neurosurgery is predicted to change the nature of neurosurgical education, and to play an increased role in surgical rehearsal and the continuing education and credentialing of surgical practitioners. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic Assessment of Correlated Energy-Water Impacts using Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, F.; Andrew, S.; Wang, J.; Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Veselka, T.

2016-12-01

Many studies on energy and water are rightfully interested in the interaction of water and energy, and their projected dependence into the future. Water is indeed an essential input to the power sector currently, and energy is required to pump water for end use in either household consumption or in industrial uses. However, each presented study either qualitatively discusses the issues, particularly about how better understanding the interconnectedness of the system is paramount in getting better policy recommendations, or considers a partial equilibrium framework where water use and energy use changes are considered explicitly without thought to other repercussions throughout the regional/national/international economic landscapes. While many studies are beginning to ask the right questions, the lack of numerical rigor raises questions of concern in conclusions discerned. Most use life cycle analysis as a method for providing numerical results, though this lacks the flexibility that economics can provide. In this study, we will perform economic analysis using computable general equilibrium models with energy-water interdependencies captured as an important factor. We atempt to answer important and interesting questions in the studies: how can we characterize the economic choice of energy technology adoptions and their implications on water use in the domestic economy. Moreover, given predictions of reductions in rain fall in the near future, how does this impact the water supply in the midst of this energy-water trade-off?

Accuracy and precision of gravitational-wave models of inspiraling neutron star-black hole binaries with spin: Comparison with matter-free numerical relativity in the low-frequency regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prayush; Barkett, Kevin; Bhagwat, Swetha; Afshari, Nousha; Brown, Duncan A.; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Scheel, Mark A.; Szilágyi, Béla

2015-11-01

Coalescing binaries of neutron stars and black holes are one of the most important sources of gravitational waves for the upcoming network of ground-based detectors. Detection and extraction of astrophysical information from gravitational-wave signals requires accurate waveform models. The effective-one-body and other phenomenological models interpolate between analytic results and numerical relativity simulations, that typically span O (10 ) orbits before coalescence. In this paper we study the faithfulness of these models for neutron star-black hole binaries. We investigate their accuracy using new numerical relativity (NR) simulations that span 36-88 orbits, with mass ratios q and black hole spins χBH of (q ,χBH)=(7 ,±0.4 ),(7 ,±0.6 ) , and (5 ,-0.9 ). These simulations were performed treating the neutron star as a low-mass black hole, ignoring its matter effects. We find that (i) the recently published SEOBNRv1 and SEOBNRv2 models of the effective-one-body family disagree with each other (mismatches of a few percent) for black hole spins χBH≥0.5 or χBH≤-0.3 , with waveform mismatch accumulating during early inspiral; (ii) comparison with numerical waveforms indicates that this disagreement is due to phasing errors of SEOBNRv1, with SEOBNRv2 in good agreement with all of our simulations; (iii) phenomenological waveforms agree with SEOBNRv2 only for comparable-mass low-spin binaries, with overlaps below 0.7 elsewhere in the neutron star-black hole binary parameter space; (iv) comparison with numerical waveforms shows that most of this model's dephasing accumulates near the frequency interval where it switches to a phenomenological phasing prescription; and finally (v) both SEOBNR and post-Newtonian models are effectual for neutron star-black hole systems, but post-Newtonian waveforms will give a significant bias in parameter recovery. Our results suggest that future gravitational-wave detection searches and parameter estimation efforts would benefit from using SEOBNRv2 waveform templates when focused on neutron star-black hole systems with q ≲7 and χBH≈[-0.9 ,+0.6 ] . For larger black hole spins and/or binary mass ratios, we recommend the models be further investigated as NR simulations in that region of the parameter space become available.

Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

2015-01-01

An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

Code Validation Studies of High-Enthalpy Flows

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

stage of future hypersonic vehicles. The development and design of such vehicles is aided by the use of experimentation and numerical simulation... numerical predictions and experimental measurements. 3. Summary of Previous Work We have studied extensively hypersonic double-cone flows with and in...the experimental measurements and the numerical predictions. When we accounted for that effect in numerical simulations, and also augmented the

ARM - Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds

DOE Data Explorer

Jensen, Mike; Bartholomew, Mary Jane; Genio, Anthony Del; Giangrande, Scott; Kollias, Pavlos

2012-01-19

Convective processes play a critical role in the Earth's energy balance through the redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and their link to the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of convective processes in numerical models is vital towards improving current and future simulations of Earths climate system. Despite improvements in computing power, current operational weather and global climate models are unable to resolve the natural temporal and spatial scales important to convective processes and therefore must turn to parameterization schemes to represent these processes. In turn, parameterization schemes in cloud-resolving models need to be evaluated for their generality and application to a variety of atmospheric conditions. Data from field campaigns with appropriate forcing descriptors have been traditionally used by modelers for evaluating and improving parameterization schemes.

ARM - Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds (comstock-hvps)

DOE Data Explorer

Jensen, Mike; Comstock, Jennifer; Genio, Anthony Del; Giangrande, Scott; Kollias, Pavlos

2012-01-06

Convective processes play a critical role in the Earth's energy balance through the redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and their link to the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of convective processes in numerical models is vital towards improving current and future simulations of Earths climate system. Despite improvements in computing power, current operational weather and global climate models are unable to resolve the natural temporal and spatial scales important to convective processes and therefore must turn to parameterization schemes to represent these processes. In turn, parameterization schemes in cloud-resolving models need to be evaluated for their generality and application to a variety of atmospheric conditions. Data from field campaigns with appropriate forcing descriptors have been traditionally used by modelers for evaluating and improving parameterization schemes.

Advancing predictive models for particulate formation in turbulent flames via massively parallel direct numerical simulations

PubMed Central

Bisetti, Fabrizio; Attili, Antonio; Pitsch, Heinz

2014-01-01

Combustion of fossil fuels is likely to continue for the near future due to the growing trends in energy consumption worldwide. The increase in efficiency and the reduction of pollutant emissions from combustion devices are pivotal to achieving meaningful levels of carbon abatement as part of the ongoing climate change efforts. Computational fluid dynamics featuring adequate combustion models will play an increasingly important role in the design of more efficient and cleaner industrial burners, internal combustion engines, and combustors for stationary power generation and aircraft propulsion. Today, turbulent combustion modelling is hindered severely by the lack of data that are accurate and sufficiently complete to assess and remedy model deficiencies effectively. In particular, the formation of pollutants is a complex, nonlinear and multi-scale process characterized by the interaction of molecular and turbulent mixing with a multitude of chemical reactions with disparate time scales. The use of direct numerical simulation (DNS) featuring a state of the art description of the underlying chemistry and physical processes has contributed greatly to combustion model development in recent years. In this paper, the analysis of the intricate evolution of soot formation in turbulent flames demonstrates how DNS databases are used to illuminate relevant physico-chemical mechanisms and to identify modelling needs. PMID:25024412

Effects of multiple vein microjoints on the mechanical behaviour of dragonfly wings: numerical modelling

PubMed Central

Rajabi, H.; Ghoroubi, N.; Darvizeh, A.; Appel, E.; Gorb, S. N.

2016-01-01

Dragonfly wings are known as biological composites with high morphological complexity. They mainly consist of a network of rigid veins and flexible membranes, and enable insects to perform various flight manoeuvres. Although several studies have been done on the aerodynamic performance of Odonata wings and the mechanisms involved in their deformations, little is known about the influence of vein joints on the passive deformability of the wings in flight. In this article, we present the first three-dimensional finite-element models of five different vein joint combinations observed in Odonata wings. The results from the analysis of the models subjected to uniform pressures on their dorsal and ventral surfaces indicate the influence of spike-associated vein joints on the dorsoventral asymmetry of wing deformation. Our study also supports the idea that a single vein joint may result in different angular deformations when it is surrounded by different joint types. The developed numerical models also enabled us to simulate the camber formation and stress distribution in the models. The computational data further provide deeper insights into the functional role of resilin patches and spikes in vein joint structures. This study might help to more realistically model the complex structure of insect wings in order to design more efficient bioinspired micro-air vehicles in future. PMID:27069649

Development of a stream-aquifer numerical flow model to assess river water management under water scarcity in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Mas-Pla, Josep; Font, Eva; Astui, Oihane; Menció, Anna; Rodríguez-Florit, Agustí; Folch, Albert; Brusi, David; Pérez-Paricio, Alfredo

2012-12-01

Stream flow, as a part of a basin hydrological cycle, will be sensible to water scarcity as a result of climate change. Stream vulnerability should then be evaluated as a key component of the basin water budget. Numerical flow modeling has been applied to an alluvial formation in a small mountain basin to evaluate the stream-aquifer relationship under these future scenarios. The Arbúcies River basin (116 km(2)) is located in the Catalan Inner Basins (NE Spain) and its lower reach, which is related to an alluvial aquifer, usually becomes dry during the summer period. This study seeks to determine the origin of such discharge losses whether from natural stream leakage and/or induced capture due to groundwater withdrawal. Our goal is also investigating how discharge variations from the basin headwaters, representing potential effects of climate change, may affect stream flow, aquifer recharge, and finally environmental preservation and human supply. A numerical flow model of the alluvial aquifer, based on MODFLOW and especially in the STREAM routine, reproduced the flow system after the usual calibration. Results indicate that, in the average, stream flow provides more than 50% of the water inputs to the alluvial aquifer, being responsible for the amount of stored water resources and for satisfying groundwater exploitation for human needs. Detailed simulations using daily time-steps permit setting threshold values for the stream flow entering at the beginning of the studied area so surface discharge is maintained along the whole watercourse and ecological flow requirements are satisfied as well. The effects of predicted rainfall and temperature variations on the Arbúcies River alluvial aquifer water balance are also discussed from the outcomes of the simulations. Finally, model results indicate the relevance of headwater discharge management under future climate scenarios to preserve downstream hydrological processes. They also point out that small mountain basins could be self-sufficient units so long as the response of the main hydrological components to external forces that produce water scarcity, as climate change or human pressures, is appropriately considered in water resource planning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Individual Headache Attacks Using Perceived Stress: Development of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Persons With Episodic Migraine.

PubMed

Houle, Timothy T; Turner, Dana P; Golding, Adrienne N; Porter, John A H; Martin, Vincent T; Penzien, Donald B; Tegeler, Charles H

2017-07-01

To develop and validate a prediction model that forecasts future migraine attacks for an individual headache sufferer. Many headache patients and physicians believe that precipitants of headache can be identified and avoided or managed to reduce the frequency of headache attacks. Of the numerous candidate triggers, perceived stress has received considerable attention for its association with the onset of headache in episodic and chronic headache sufferers. However, no evidence is available to support forecasting headache attacks within individuals using any of the candidate headache triggers. This longitudinal cohort with forecasting model development study enrolled 100 participants with episodic migraine with or without aura, and N = 95 contributed 4626 days of electronic diary data and were included in the analysis. Individual headache forecasts were derived from current headache state and current levels of stress using several aspects of the Daily Stress Inventory, a measure of daily hassles that is completed at the end of each day. The primary outcome measure was the presence/absence of any headache attack (head pain > 0 on a numerical rating scale of 0-10) over the next 24 h period. After removing missing data (n = 431 days), participants in the study experienced a headache attack on 1613/4195 (38.5%) days. A generalized linear mixed-effects forecast model using either the frequency of stressful events or the perceived intensity of these events fit the data well. This simple forecasting model possessed promising predictive utility with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.75) in the training sample and an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.6-0.67) in a leave-one-out validation sample. This forecasting model had a Brier score of 0.202 and possessed good calibration between forecasted probabilities and observed frequencies but had only low levels of resolution (ie, sharpness). This study demonstrates that future headache attacks can be forecasted for a diverse group of individuals over time. Future work will enhance prediction through improvements in the assessment of stress as well as the development of other candidate domains to use in the models. © 2017 American Headache Society.

Quantum quenches in the Luttinger model and its close relatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazalilla, M. A.; Chung, Ming-Chiang

2016-06-01

A number of results on quantum quenches in the Luttinger and related models are surveyed with emphasis on post-quench correlations. For the Luttinger model and initial gaussian states, we discuss both sudden and smooth quenches of the interaction and the emergence of a steady state described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble. Comparisons between analytics and numerics, and the question of universality or lack thereof are also discussed. The relevance of the theoretical results to current and future experiments in the fields of ultracold atomic gases and mesoscopic systems of electrons is also briefly touched upon. Wherever possible, our approach is pedagogical and self-contained. This work is dedicated to the memory of our colleague Alejandro Muramatsu.

Development of an Assessment Procedure for Seawater Intrusion Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsi Ting, F.; Yih Chi, T.

2017-12-01

The Pingtung Plain is one of the areas with extremely plentiful groundwater resources in Taiwan. Due to that the application of the water resource is restricted by significant variation of precipitation between wet and dry seasons, groundwater must be used as a recharge source to implement the insufficient surface water resource during dry seasons. In recent years, the coastal aquaculture rises, and the over withdrawn of groundwater by private well results in fast drop of groundwater level. Then it causes imbalance of groundwater supply and leads to serious seawater intrusion in the coastal areas. The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated numerical model of groundwater resources and seawater intrusion. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), MODFLOW and MT3D models were applied to analyze the variation of the groundwater levels and salinity concentration to investigate the correlation of parameters, which are used to the model applications in order to disposal saltwater intrusion. The data of groundwater levels, pumping capacity and hydrogeological data to were collected to build an integrated numerical model. Firstly, we will collect the information of layered aquifer and the data of hydrological parameters to build the groundwater numerical model at Pingtung Plain, and identify the amount of the groundwater which flow into the sea. In order to deal with the future climate change conditions or extreme weather conditions, we will consider the recharge with groundwater model to improve the seawater intrusion problem. The integrated numerical model which describes that seawater intrusion to deep confined aquifers and shallow unsaturated aquifers. Secondly, we will use the above model to investigate the weights influenced by different factors to the amount area of seawater intrusion, and predict the salinity concentration distribution of evaluation at coastal area of Pingtung Plain. Finally, we will simulate groundwater recharge/ injection at the coastal areas in Pington Plain by above model to investigate the analysis of salinity concentration in deep aquifers and the improvement of salinity concentration in shallow aquifers. In addition, a complete plan for managing both the flooding and water resources will be instituted by scheming non-engineering adaptation strategies for homeland planning.

A calving law for ice sheet models; Investigating the role of surface melt on dynamics of Greenland outlet glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; van der Veen, C. J.; Vieli, A.

2008-12-01

alving of icebergs accounts for perhaps as much as half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We have formulated a calving model that can be readily incorporated into time-evolving numerical ice-flow models. Our model is based on downward penetration of water-filled surface crevasses and upward propagation of basal crevasses. A calving event occurs when the depth of the surface crevasse (which increases as melting progresses through the summer) reaches the height of the basal crevasse. Our numerical ice sheet model is able to reproduce observed seasonal changes of Greenland outlet glaciers, such as fluctuations in flow speed and terminus positions. We have applied the model to Helheim Glacier on the east coast, and Petermann Glacier in the northwest. Our model suggests that rapid retreat of the claving front is highly affected by the amplified calving rate due to increasing water level in surface crevasses during warmer summers. Our results show little response to seasonally enhanced basal lubrication from surface melt. This modeling study provides insights into the role of surface and basal hydrology to ice sheet dynamics and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models and therefore advances our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

Heat Transfer by Thermo-Capillary Convection. Sounding Rocket COMPERE Experiment SOURCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuhrmann, Eckart; Dreyer, Michael

2009-08-01

This paper describes the results of a sounding rocket experiment which was partly dedicated to study the heat transfer from a hot wall to a cold liquid with a free surface. Natural or buoyancy-driven convection does not occur in the compensated gravity environment of a ballistic phase. Thermo-capillary convection driven by a temperature gradient along the free surface always occurs if a non-condensable gas is present. This convection increases the heat transfer compared to a pure conductive case. Heat transfer correlations are needed to predict temperature distributions in the tanks of cryogenic upper stages. Future upper stages of the European Ariane V rocket have mission scenarios with multiple ballistic phases. The aims of this paper and of the COMPERE group (French-German research group on propellant behavior in rocket tanks) in general are to provide basic knowledge, correlations and computer models to predict the thermo-fluid behavior of cryogenic propellants for future mission scenarios. Temperature and surface location data from the flight have been compared with numerical calculations to get the heat flux from the wall to the liquid. Since the heat flux measurements along the walls of the transparent test cell were not possible, the analysis of the heat transfer coefficient relies therefore on the numerical modeling which was validated with the flight data. The coincidence between experiment and simulation is fairly good and allows presenting the data in form of a Nusselt number which depends on a characteristic Reynolds number and the Prandtl number. The results are useful for further benchmarking of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes such as FLOW-3D and FLUENT, and for the design of future upper stage propellant tanks.

Assessing hydrological effects of human interventions on coastal systems: numerical applications to the Venice Lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrarin, C.; Ghezzo, M.; Umgiesser, G.; Tagliapietra, D.; Camatti, E.; Zaggia, L.; Sarretta, A.

2013-05-01

The hydrological consequences of historical, contemporary and future human activities on a coastal system were investigated by means of numerical models. The changes in the morphology of the Lagoon of Venice during the last century result from the sedimentological response to the combined effects of human interventions on the environment and global changes. This study focuses on changes from 1927 to 2012 and includes the changes planned for the protection of the city of Venice from storm surges and exceptional tides under future sea level rise scenarios. The application of a hydrodynamic model allowed for the analysis of the morphological effects on the lagoon circulation, the interaction with the sea and the internal mixing processes. The absolute values of the exchange between the lagoon and sea increased from 1927 to 2002 (from 3900 to 4600 m3 s-1), while the daily fraction of lagoon water volume exchanged decreased. At the same time, the flattening of the lagoon and loss of morphological heterogeneity enhanced the internal mixing processes driven by the tide and wind, reducing thus the overall water renewal time from 11.9 days in 1927 to 10.8 days in 2002. Morphological changes during the last decade reduced the water exchange through the inlets and induced an increase of the basin-wide water renewal time of 0.5 day. In the future, Venice Lagoon will evolve to a more restricted environment due to sea level rise, which increases the lagoon volume, and periodical closure of the lagoon from the sea during flooding events, which reduces the communication with the open sea. Therefore, the flushing capacity of the lagoon will decrease considerably, especially in its central part. Furthermore, some considerations on the impact of the hydromorphological changes on the ecological dynamics are proposed.

Assessing hydrological effects of human interventions on coastal systems: numerical applications to the Venice Lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrarin, C.; Ghezzo, M.; Umgiesser, G.; Tagliapietra, D.; Camatti, E.; Zaggia, L.; Sarretta, A.

2012-12-01

The hydrological consequences of historical, contemporary and future human activities on a coastal system were investigated by means of numerical models. The changes in the morphology of the Lagoon of Venice during the last century result from the sedimentological response to the combined effects of human interventions on the environment and global changes. This study focuses on changes from 1927 to 2012 and includes the changes planned for the protection of the city of Venice from storm surges and exceptional tides under future sea level rise scenarios. The application of a hydrodynamic model to simulate the circulation of water masses and the transport of a passive tracer enabled the analysis of the morphodynamic effects on the lagoon circulation and the interaction with the sea. The absolute values of the exchange between the lagoon and sea increased from 1927 to 2002 (from 3900 to 4600 m3 s-1), while the daily fraction of lagoon water volume exchanged decreased. At the same time, the water renewal time shortened from 11.9 to 10.8 days. Morphological changes during the last decade induced an increase of the basin-wide water renewal time (from 10.8 to 11.3 days). In the future, Venice Lagoon will evolve to a more restricted environment due to sea level rise and periodical closure of the lagoon from the sea during flooding events. Simulated scenarios of sea level rise showed that under fall-winter conditions the water renewal time will increased considerably especially in the central part of the lagoon. Furthermore, some considerations on the impact of the hydromorphological changes on the ecological dynamics are proposed.

Determining the velocity required for skin perforation by fragment simulating projectiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Breeze, John; Clasper, J C

2013-12-01

Explosively propelled fragments are the most common cause of injury to soldiers on current operations. Researchers desire models to predict their injurious effects so as to refine methods of potential protection. Well validated physical and numerical models based on the penetration of standardised fragment simulating projectiles (FSPs) through muscle exist but not for skin, thereby reducing the utility of such models. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses methodology to identify all open source information quantifying the effects of postmortem human subject (PMHS) and animal skin on the retardation of metallic projectiles. Projectile sectional density (mass over presented cross-sectional area) was compared with the velocity required for skin perforation or penetration, with regard to skin origin (animal vs PMHS), projectile shape (sphere vs cylinder) and skin backing (isolated skin vs that backed by muscle). 17 original experimental studies were identified, predominantly using skin from the thigh. No statistical difference in the velocity required for skin perforation with regard to skin origin or projectile shape was found. A greater velocity was required to perforate intact skin on a whole limb than isolated skin alone (p<0.05). An empirical relationship describing the velocity required to perforate skin by metallic FSPs of a range of sectional densities was generated. Skin has a significant effect on the retardation of FSPs, necessitating its incorporation in future injury models. Perforation algorithms based on animal and PMHS skin can be used interchangeably as well as spheres and cylinders of matching sectional density. Future numerical simulations for skin perforation must match the velocity for penetration and also require experimental determination of mechanical skin properties, such as tensile strength, strain and elasticity at high strain rates.

Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowan, Ann V.; Egholm, David L.; Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.

2015-11-01

Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier-Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8-10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya.

Using Numerical Modeling to Simulate Space Capsule Ground Landings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Ernie; Fasanella, Edwin L.

2009-01-01

Experimental work is being conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) to investigate ground landing capabilities of the Orion crew exploration vehicle (CEV). The Orion capsule is NASA s replacement for the Space Shuttle. The Orion capsule will service the International Space Station and be used for future space missions to the Moon and to Mars. To evaluate the feasibility of Orion ground landings, a series of capsule impact tests are being performed at the NASA Langley Landing and Impact Research Facility (LandIR). The experimental results derived at LandIR provide means to validate and calibrate nonlinear dynamic finite element models, which are also being developed during this study. Because of the high cost and time involvement intrinsic to full-scale testing, numerical simulations are favored over experimental work. Subsequent to a numerical model validated by actual test responses, impact simulations will be conducted to study multiple impact scenarios not practical to test. Twenty-one swing tests using the LandIR gantry were conducted during the June 07 through October 07 time period to evaluate the Orion s impact response. Results for two capsule initial pitch angles, 0deg and -15deg , along with their computer simulations using LS-DYNA are presented in this article. A soil-vehicle friction coefficient of 0.45 was determined by comparing the test stopping distance with computer simulations. In addition, soil modeling accuracy is presented by comparing vertical penetrometer impact tests with computer simulations for the soil model used during the swing tests.

Orbital evolution of 95/P Chiron, 39P/Oterma, 29P/Shwassmann-Wachmann 1, and of 33 Centaurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalenko, N. S.; Churyumov, K. I.; Babenko, Yu. G.

2011-12-01

The paper is devoted to numerical modeling of orbital evolution of 34 Centaurs, and 2 distant Jupiter-family comets - 39P/Oterma and 29P/Shwassmann-Wachmann 1. As a result the evolutionary tracks of orbital elements of 33 Centaurs and 3 comets (95/P Chiron (2060), 39P/Oterma and 29P/Shwassmann-Wachmann 1) are obtained. The integrations were produced for 1 Myr back and forth in time starting at epoch and using the implicit single sequence Everhart methods. The statistical analysis of numerical integrations results was done, trends in changes of Centaurs' orbital elements in the past and in the future are revealed. The part of Centaurs that are potential comets is defined by the values of perihelia distributions for modeled orbits. It is shown that Centaurs may transits into orbits typical for Jupiter-family comets, and vice versa. Centaurs represent one of possible sources for replenishment of JFCs population, but other sources are also necessary.

Space Weather Forecasting Operational Needs: A view from NOAA/SWPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.

2017-12-01

The gaps in space weather forecasting are many. From long lead time forecasts, to accurate warnings with lead time to take action, there is plenty of room for improvement. Significant numbers of new observations would improve this picture, but it's also important to recognize the value of numerical modeling. The obvious interplanetary mission concepts that would be ideal would be 1) to measure the in-situ solar wind along the entire Sun-Earth line from as near to the Sun as possible all the way to Earth 2) a string of spacecraft in 1 AU heliocentric orbits making in-situ measurements as well as remote-sensing observations of the Sun, corona, and heliosphere. Even partially achieving these ideals would benefit space weather services, improving lead time and providing greater accuracy further into the future. The observations alone would improve forecasting. However, integrating these data into numerical models, as boundary conditions or via data assimilation, would provide the greatest improvements.

Experimental monitoring and numerical study of pesticide (carbofuran) transfer in an agricultural soil at a field site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hmimou, Abderrahim; Maslouhi, Abdellatif; Tamoh, Karim; Candela, Lucila

2014-09-01

We studied the transport of a pesticide at field scale, namely carbofuran molecule, which is known for its high mobility, especially in sandy soils with high hydraulic conductivity and low organic matter. To add to our knowledge of the future of this high-mobility molecule in this type of soils, we developed a mechanistic numerical model allowing the simulation of hydric and solute transfers (bromide and carbofuran) in the soil. We carried out this study in an agricultural plot in the region of Mnasra in Morocco. Confrontation of the measured and simulated values allowed the calibration of the parameters of hydric transfer and carbofuran. The developed model accurately reproduces the measured values. Despite a weak irrigation and precipitation regime, carbofuran was practically leached beyond the root zone. Prospective simulations show that under a more important irrigation regime, carbofuran reaches a 100-cm depth, whereas it does not exceed 60 cm under a deficit regime.

Back-support large laser mirror unit: mounting modeling and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hui; Zhang, Zheng; Long, Kai; Liu, Tianye; Li, Jun; Liu, Changchun; Xiong, Zhao; Yuan, Xiaodong

2018-01-01

In high-power laser system, the surface wavefront of large optics has a close link with its structure design and mounting method. The back-support transport mirror design is presently being investigated as a means in China's high-power laser system to hold the optical component firmly while minimizing the distortion of its reflecting surface. We have proposed a comprehensive analytical framework integrated numerical modeling and precise metrology for the mirror's mounting performance evaluation while treating the surface distortion as a key decision variable. The combination of numerical simulation and field tests demonstrates that the comprehensive analytical framework provides a detailed and accurate approach to evaluate the performance of the transport mirror. It is also verified that the back-support transport mirror is effectively compatible with state-of-the-art optical quality specifications. This study will pave the way for future research to solidify the design of back-support large laser optics in China's next generation inertial confinement fusion facility.

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

Experimental testing and numerical simulation on natural composite for aerospace applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, G. Raj; Vijayanandh, R.; Kumar, M. Senthil; Kumar, S. Sathish

2018-05-01

Nowadays polymers are commonly used in various applications, which make it difficult to avoid its usage even though it causes environmental problems. Natural fibers are best alternate to overcome the polymer based environmental issues. Natural fibers play an important role in developing high performing fully newline biodegradable green composites which will be a key material to solve environmental problems in future. In this paper deals the properties analysis of banana fiber is combined with epoxy resin in order to create a natural composite, which has special characteristics for aerospace applications. The objective of this paper is to investigate the characteristics of failure modes and strength of natural composite using experimental and numerical methods. The test specimen of natural composite has been fabricated as per ASTM standard, which undergoes tensile and compression tests using Tinius Olsen UTM in order to determine mechanical and physical properties. The reference model has been designed by CATIA, and then numerical simulation has been carried out by Ansys Workbench 16.2 for the given boundary conditions.

Power generation based on biomass by combined fermentation and gasification--a new concept derived from experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Methling, Torsten; Armbrust, Nina; Haitz, Thilo; Speidel, Michael; Poboss, Norman; Braun-Unkhoff, Marina; Dieter, Heiko; Kempter-Regel, Brigitte; Kraaij, Gerard; Schliessmann, Ursula; Sterr, Yasemin; Wörner, Antje; Hirth, Thomas; Riedel, Uwe; Scheffknecht, Günter

2014-10-01

A new concept is proposed for combined fermentation (two-stage high-load fermenter) and gasification (two-stage fluidised bed gasifier with CO2 separation) of sewage sludge and wood, and the subsequent utilisation of the biogenic gases in a hybrid power plant, consisting of a solid oxide fuel cell and a gas turbine. The development and optimisation of the important processes of the new concept (fermentation, gasification, utilisation) are reported in detail. For the gas production, process parameters were experimentally and numerically investigated to achieve high conversion rates of biomass. For the product gas utilisation, important combustion properties (laminar flame speed, ignition delay time) were analysed numerically to evaluate machinery operation (reliability, emissions). Furthermore, the coupling of the processes was numerically analysed and optimised by means of integration of heat and mass flows. The high, simulated electrical efficiency of 42% including the conversion of raw biomass is promising for future power generation by biomass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient finite element modeling of radiation forces on elastic particles of arbitrary size and geometry.

PubMed

Glynne-Jones, Peter; Mishra, Puja P; Boltryk, Rosemary J; Hill, Martyn

2013-04-01

A finite element based method is presented for calculating the acoustic radiation force on arbitrarily shaped elastic and fluid particles. Importantly for future applications, this development will permit the modeling of acoustic forces on complex structures such as biological cells, and the interactions between them and other bodies. The model is based on a non-viscous approximation, allowing the results from an efficient, numerical, linear scattering model to provide the basis for the second-order forces. Simulation times are of the order of a few seconds for an axi-symmetric structure. The model is verified against a range of existing analytical solutions (typical accuracy better than 0.1%), including those for cylinders, elastic spheres that are of significant size compared to the acoustic wavelength, and spheroidal particles.

Measurement of historical cliff-top changes and estimation of future trends using GIS data between Bridlington and Hornsea - Holderness Coast (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castedo, Ricardo; de la Vega-Panizo, Rogelio; Fernández-Hernández, Marta; Paredes, Carlos

2015-02-01

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 km between Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI's ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use by managers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies.

Theory and Simulations of Solar System Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Melvyn L.

2011-01-01

"Theory and simulations of solar system plasmas" aims to highlight results from microscopic to global scales, achieved by theoretical investigations and numerical simulations of the plasma dynamics in the solar system. The theoretical approach must allow evidencing the universality of the phenomena being considered, whatever the region is where their role is studied; at the Sun, in the solar corona, in the interplanetary space or in planetary magnetospheres. All possible theoretical issues concerning plasma dynamics are welcome, especially those using numerical models and simulations, since these tools are mandatory whenever analytical treatments fail, in particular when complex nonlinear phenomena are at work. Comparative studies for ongoing missions like Cassini, Cluster, Demeter, Stereo, Wind, SDO, Hinode, as well as those preparing future missions and proposals, like, e.g., MMS and Solar Orbiter, are especially encouraged.

The erroneous signals of detection theory.

PubMed

Trimmer, Pete C; Ehlman, Sean M; McNamara, John M; Sih, Andrew

2017-10-25

Signal detection theory has influenced the behavioural sciences for over 50 years. The theory provides a simple equation that indicates numerous 'intuitive' results; e.g. prey should be more prone to take evasive action (in response to an ambiguous cue) if predators are more common. Here, we use analytical and computational models to show that, in numerous biological scenarios, the standard results of signal detection theory do not apply; more predators can result in prey being less responsive to such cues. The standard results need not apply when the probability of danger pertains not just to the present, but also to future decisions. We identify how responses to risk should depend on background mortality and autocorrelation, and that predictions in relation to animal welfare can also be reversed from the standard theory. © 2017 The Author(s).

Study of wave runup using numerical models and low-altitude aerial photogrammetry: A tool for coastal management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casella, Elisa; Rovere, Alessio; Pedroncini, Andrea; Mucerino, Luigi; Casella, Marco; Cusati, Luis Alberto; Vacchi, Matteo; Ferrari, Marco; Firpo, Marco

2014-08-01

Monitoring the impact of sea storms on coastal areas is fundamental to study beach evolution and the vulnerability of low-lying coasts to erosion and flooding. Modelling wave runup on a beach is possible, but it requires accurate topographic data and model tuning, that can be done comparing observed and modeled runup. In this study we collected aerial photos using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle after two different swells on the same study area. We merged the point cloud obtained with photogrammetry with multibeam data, in order to obtain a complete beach topography. Then, on each set of rectified and georeferenced UAV orthophotos, we identified the maximum wave runup for both events recognizing the wet area left by the waves. We then used our topography and numerical models to simulate the wave runup and compare the model results to observed values during the two events. Our results highlight the potential of the methodology presented, which integrates UAV platforms, photogrammetry and Geographic Information Systems to provide faster and cheaper information on beach topography and geomorphology compared with traditional techniques without losing in accuracy. We use the results obtained from this technique as a topographic base for a model that calculates runup for the two swells. The observed and modeled runups are consistent, and open new directions for future research.

Determining residual reduction algorithm kinematic tracking weights for a sidestep cut via numerical optimization.

PubMed

Samaan, Michael A; Weinhandl, Joshua T; Bawab, Sebastian Y; Ringleb, Stacie I

2016-12-01

Musculoskeletal modeling allows for the determination of various parameters during dynamic maneuvers by using in vivo kinematic and ground reaction force (GRF) data as inputs. Differences between experimental and model marker data and inconsistencies in the GRFs applied to these musculoskeletal models may not produce accurate simulations. Therefore, residual forces and moments are applied to these models in order to reduce these differences. Numerical optimization techniques can be used to determine optimal tracking weights of each degree of freedom of a musculoskeletal model in order to reduce differences between the experimental and model marker data as well as residual forces and moments. In this study, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) and simplex simulated annealing (SIMPSA) algorithms were used to determine optimal tracking weights for the simulation of a sidestep cut. The PSO and SIMPSA algorithms were able to produce model kinematics that were within 1.4° of experimental kinematics with residual forces and moments of less than 10 N and 18 Nm, respectively. The PSO algorithm was able to replicate the experimental kinematic data more closely and produce more dynamically consistent kinematic data for a sidestep cut compared to the SIMPSA algorithm. Future studies should use external optimization routines to determine dynamically consistent kinematic data and report the differences between experimental and model data for these musculoskeletal simulations.

Panel summary report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutjahr, A.L.; Kincaid, C.T.; Mercer, J.W.

1987-04-01

The objective of this report is to summarize the various modeling approaches that were used to simulate solute transport in a variably saturated emission. In particular, the technical strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed, and conclusions and recommendations for future studies are made. Five models are considered: (1) one-dimensional analytical and semianalytical solutions of the classical deterministic convection-dispersion equation (van Genuchten, Parker, and Kool, this report ); (2) one-dimensional simulation using a continuous-time Markov process (Knighton and Wagenet, this report); (3) one-dimensional simulation using the time domain method and the frequency domain method (Duffy and Al-Hassan, this report);more » (4) one-dimensional numerical approach that combines a solution of the classical deterministic convection-dispersion equation with a chemical equilibrium speciation model (Cederberg, this report); and (5) three-dimensional numerical solution of the classical deterministic convection-dispersion equation (Huyakorn, Jones, Parker, Wadsworth, and White, this report). As part of the discussion, the input data and modeling results are summarized. The models were used in a data analysis mode, as opposed to a predictive mode. Thus, the following discussion will concentrate on the data analysis aspects of model use. Also, all the approaches were similar in that they were based on a convection-dispersion model of solute transport. Each discussion addresses the modeling approaches in the order listed above.« less

High-Content Screening for Quantitative Cell Biology.

PubMed

Mattiazzi Usaj, Mojca; Styles, Erin B; Verster, Adrian J; Friesen, Helena; Boone, Charles; Andrews, Brenda J

2016-08-01

High-content screening (HCS), which combines automated fluorescence microscopy with quantitative image analysis, allows the acquisition of unbiased multiparametric data at the single cell level. This approach has been used to address diverse biological questions and identify a plethora of quantitative phenotypes of varying complexity in numerous different model systems. Here, we describe some recent applications of HCS, ranging from the identification of genes required for specific biological processes to the characterization of genetic interactions. We review the steps involved in the design of useful biological assays and automated image analysis, and describe major challenges associated with each. Additionally, we highlight emerging technologies and future challenges, and discuss how the field of HCS might be enhanced in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Conceptual Framework for SAHRA Integrated Multi-resolution Modeling in the Rio Grande Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Springer, E.; Wagener, T.; Brookshire, D.; Duffy, C.

2004-12-01

The sustainable management of water resources in a river basin requires an integrated analysis of the social, economic, environmental and institutional dimensions of the problem. Numerical models are commonly used for integration of these dimensions and for communication of the analysis results to stakeholders and policy makers. The National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) has been developing integrated multi-resolution models to assess impacts of climate variability and land use change on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin. These models not only couple natural systems such as surface and ground waters, but will also include engineering, economic and social components that may be involved in water resources decision-making processes. This presentation will describe the conceptual framework being developed by SAHRA to guide and focus the multiple modeling efforts and to assist the modeling team in planning, data collection and interpretation, communication, evaluation, etc. One of the major components of this conceptual framework is a Conceptual Site Model (CSM), which describes the basin and its environment based on existing knowledge and identifies what additional information must be collected to develop technically sound models at various resolutions. The initial CSM is based on analyses of basin profile information that has been collected, including a physical profile (e.g., topographic and vegetative features), a man-made facility profile (e.g., dams, diversions, and pumping stations), and a land use and ecological profile (e.g., demographics, natural habitats, and endangered species). Based on the initial CSM, a Conceptual Physical Model (CPM) is developed to guide and evaluate the selection of a model code (or numerical model) for each resolution to conduct simulations and predictions. A CPM identifies, conceptually, all the physical processes and engineering and socio-economic activities occurring (or to occur) in the real system that the corresponding numerical models are required to address, such as riparian evapotranspiration responses to vegetation change and groundwater pumping impacts on soil moisture contents. Simulation results from different resolution models and observations of the real system will then be compared to evaluate the consistency among the CSM, the CPMs, and the numerical models, and feedbacks will be used to update the models. In a broad sense, the evaluation of the models (conceptual or numerical), as well as the linkages between them, can be viewed as a part of the overall conceptual framework. As new data are generated and understanding improves, the models will evolve, and the overall conceptual framework is refined. The development of the conceptual framework becomes an on-going process. We will describe the current state of this framework and the open questions that have to be addressed in the future.

Scilab software as an alternative low-cost computing in solving the linear equations problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agus, Fahrul; Haviluddin

2017-02-01

Numerical computation packages are widely used both in teaching and research. These packages consist of license (proprietary) and open source software (non-proprietary). One of the reasons to use the package is a complexity of mathematics function (i.e., linear problems). Also, number of variables in a linear or non-linear function has been increased. The aim of this paper was to reflect on key aspects related to the method, didactics and creative praxis in the teaching of linear equations in higher education. If implemented, it could be contribute to a better learning in mathematics area (i.e., solving simultaneous linear equations) that essential for future engineers. The focus of this study was to introduce an additional numerical computation package of Scilab as an alternative low-cost computing programming. In this paper, Scilab software was proposed some activities that related to the mathematical models. In this experiment, four numerical methods such as Gaussian Elimination, Gauss-Jordan, Inverse Matrix, and Lower-Upper Decomposition (LU) have been implemented. The results of this study showed that a routine or procedure in numerical methods have been created and explored by using Scilab procedures. Then, the routine of numerical method that could be as a teaching material course has exploited.

Numerically modeling Brownian thermal noise in amorphous and crystalline thin coatings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovelace, Geoffrey; Demos, Nicholas; Khan, Haroon

2018-01-01

Thermal noise is expected to be one of the noise sources limiting the astrophysical reach of Advanced LIGO (once commissioning is complete) and third-generation detectors. Adopting crystalline materials for thin, reflecting mirror coatings, rather than the amorphous coatings used in current-generation detectors, could potentially reduce thermal noise. Understanding and reducing thermal noise requires accurate theoretical models, but modeling thermal noise analytically is especially challenging with crystalline materials. Thermal noise models typically rely on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, which relates the power spectral density of the thermal noise to an auxiliary elastic problem. In this paper, we present results from a new, open-source tool that numerically solves the auxiliary elastic problem to compute the Brownian thermal noise for both amorphous and crystalline coatings. We employ the open-source deal.ii and PETSc frameworks to solve the auxiliary elastic problem using a finite-element method, adaptive mesh refinement, and parallel processing that enables us to use high resolutions capable of resolving the thin reflective coating. We verify numerical convergence, and by running on up to hundreds of compute cores, we resolve the coating elastic energy in the auxiliary problem to approximately 0.1%. We compare with approximate analytic solutions for amorphous materials, and we verify that our solutions scale as expected with changing beam size, mirror dimensions, and coating thickness. Finally, we model the crystalline coating thermal noise in an experiment reported by Cole et al (2013 Nat. Photon. 7 644–50), comparing our results to a simpler numerical calculation that treats the coating as an ‘effectively amorphous’ material. We find that treating the coating as a cubic crystal instead of as an effectively amorphous material increases the thermal noise by about 3%. Our results are a step toward better understanding and reducing thermal noise to increase the reach of future gravitational-wave detectors.

High Speed Dynamics in Brittle Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiermaier, Stefan

2015-06-01

Brittle Materials under High Speed and Shock loading provide a continuous challenge in experimental physics, analysis and numerical modelling, and consequently for engineering design. The dependence of damage and fracture processes on material-inherent length and time scales, the influence of defects, rate-dependent material properties and inertia effects on different scales make their understanding a true multi-scale problem. In addition, it is not uncommon that materials show a transition from ductile to brittle behavior when the loading rate is increased. A particular case is spallation, a brittle tensile failure induced by the interaction of stress waves leading to a sudden change from compressive to tensile loading states that can be invoked in various materials. This contribution highlights typical phenomena occurring when brittle materials are exposed to high loading rates in applications such as blast and impact on protective structures, or meteorite impact on geological materials. A short review on experimental methods that are used for dynamic characterization of brittle materials will be given. A close interaction of experimental analysis and numerical simulation has turned out to be very helpful in analyzing experimental results. For this purpose, adequate numerical methods are required. Cohesive zone models are one possible method for the analysis of brittle failure as long as some degree of tension is present. Their recent successful application for meso-mechanical simulations of concrete in Hopkinson-type spallation tests provides new insight into the dynamic failure process. Failure under compressive loading is a particular challenge for numerical simulations as it involves crushing of material which in turn influences stress states in other parts of a structure. On a continuum scale, it can be modeled using more or less complex plasticity models combined with failure surfaces, as will be demonstrated for ceramics. Models which take microstructural cracking directly into account may provide a more physics-based approach for compressive failure in the future.

A meta-model based approach for rapid formability estimation of continuous fibre reinforced components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerling, Clemens; Dörr, Dominik; Henning, Frank; Kärger, Luise

2018-05-01

Due to their high mechanical performance, continuous fibre reinforced plastics (CoFRP) become increasingly important for load bearing structures. In many cases, manufacturing CoFRPs comprises a forming process of textiles. To predict and optimise the forming behaviour of a component, numerical simulations are applied. However, for maximum part quality, both the geometry and the process parameters must match in mutual regard, which in turn requires numerous numerically expensive optimisation iterations. In both textile and metal forming, a lot of research has focused on determining optimum process parameters, whilst regarding the geometry as invariable. In this work, a meta-model based approach on component level is proposed, that provides a rapid estimation of the formability for variable geometries based on pre-sampled, physics-based draping data. Initially, a geometry recognition algorithm scans the geometry and extracts a set of doubly-curved regions with relevant geometry parameters. If the relevant parameter space is not part of an underlying data base, additional samples via Finite-Element draping simulations are drawn according to a suitable design-table for computer experiments. Time saving parallel runs of the physical simulations accelerate the data acquisition. Ultimately, a Gaussian Regression meta-model is built from the data base. The method is demonstrated on a box-shaped generic structure. The predicted results are in good agreement with physics-based draping simulations. Since evaluations of the established meta-model are numerically inexpensive, any further design exploration (e.g. robustness analysis or design optimisation) can be performed in short time. It is expected that the proposed method also offers great potential for future applications along virtual process chains: For each process step along the chain, a meta-model can be set-up to predict the impact of design variations on manufacturability and part performance. Thus, the method is considered to facilitate a lean and economic part and process design under consideration of manufacturing effects.

Multiphysics phase field modeling of hydrogen diffusion and delta-hydride precipitation in alpha-zirconium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokisaari, Andrea M.

Hydride precipitation in zirconium is a significant factor limiting the lifetime of nuclear fuel cladding, because hydride microstructures play a key role in the degradation of fuel cladding. However, the behavior of hydrogen in zirconium has typically been modeled using mean field approaches, which do not consider microstructural evolution. This thesis describes a quantitative microstructural evolution model for the alpha-zirconium/delta-hydride system and the associated numerical methods and algorithms that were developed. The multiphysics, phase field-based model incorporates CALPHAD free energy descriptions, linear elastic solid mechanics, and classical nucleation theory. A flexible simulation software implementing the model, Hyrax, is built on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework. Hyrax is open-source and freely available; moreover, the numerical methods and algorithms that have been developed are generalizable to other systems. The algorithms are described in detail, and verification studies for each are discussed. In addition, analyses of the sensitivity of the simulation results to the choice of numerical parameters are presented. For example, threshold values for the CALPHAD free energy algorithm and the use of mesh and time adaptivity when employing the nucleation algorithm are studied. Furthermore, preliminary insights into the nucleation behavior of delta-hydrides are described. These include a) the sensitivities of the nucleation rate to temperature, interfacial energy, composition and elastic energy, b) the spatial variation of the nucleation rate around a single precipitate, and c) the effect of interfacial energy and nucleation rate on the precipitate microstructure. Finally, several avenues for future work are discussed. Topics encompass the terminal solid solubility hysteresis of hydrogen in zirconium and the effects of the alpha/delta interfacial energy, as well as thermodiffusion, plasticity, and irradiation, which are not yet accounted for in the model.

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Evaporative Fraction for Improved Agricultural Irrigation Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, F.; Crow, W. T.; Kustas, W. P.; Yang, Y.; Anderson, M. C.

2017-12-01

Improving the water usage efficiency and maintaining water use sustainability is challenging under rapidly changed natural environments. For decades, extensive field investigations and conceptual/physical numerical modeling have been developed to quantify and track surface water and energy fluxes at different spatial and temporal scales. Meanwhile, with the development of satellite-based sensors, land surface eco-hydrological parameters can be retrieved remotely to supplement ground-based observations. However, both models and remote sensing retrievals contain various sources of errors and an accurate and spatio-temporally continuous simulation and forecasting system at the field-scale is crucial for the efficient water management in agriculture. Specifically, data assimilation technique can optimally integrate measurements acquired from various sources (including in-situ and remotely-sensed data) with numerical models through consideration of different types of uncertainties. In this presentation, we will focus on improving the estimation of water and energy fluxes over a vineyard in California, U.S. A high-resolution remotely-sensed Evaporative Fraction (EF) product from the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model will be incorporated into a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model via a 2-D data assimilation method. The results will show that both the accuracy and spatial variability of soil water content and evapotranspiration in SVAT model can be enhanced through the assimilation of EF data. Furthermore, we will demonstrate that by taking the optimized soil water flux as initial condition and combining it with weather forecasts, future field water status can be predicted under different irrigation scenarios. Finally, we will discuss the practical potential of these advances by leveraging our numerical experiment for the design of new irrigation strategies and water management techniques.

A time-efficient implementation of Extended Kalman Filter for sequential orbit determination and a case study for onboard application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingshi; Wang, Haihong; Chen, Qiuli; Chen, Zhonggui; Zheng, Jinjun; Cheng, Haowen; Liu, Lin

2018-07-01

Onboard orbit determination (OD) is often used in space missions, with which mission support can be partially accomplished autonomously, with less dependency on ground stations. In major Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), inter-satellite link is also an essential upgrade in the future generations. To serve for autonomous operation, sequential OD method is crucial to provide real-time or near real-time solutions. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is an effective and convenient sequential estimator that is widely used in onboard application. The filter requires the solutions of state transition matrix (STM) and the process noise transition matrix, which are always obtained by numerical integration. However, numerically integrating the differential equations is a CPU intensive process and consumes a large portion of the time in EKF procedures. In this paper, we present an implementation that uses the analytical solutions of these transition matrices to replace the numerical calculations. This analytical implementation is demonstrated and verified using a fictitious constellation based on selected medium Earth orbit (MEO) and inclined Geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites. We show that this implementation performs effectively and converges quickly, steadily and accurately in the presence of considerable errors in the initial values, measurements and force models. The filter is able to converge within 2-4 h of flight time in our simulation. The observation residual is consistent with simulated measurement error, which is about a few centimeters in our scenarios. Compared to results implemented with numerically integrated STM, the analytical implementation shows results with consistent accuracy, while it takes only about half the CPU time to filter a 10-day measurement series. The future possible extensions are also discussed to fit in various missions.

Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS) for Complex Naval Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-23

INTRODUCTION 35 2.2 GENERAL MODEL SETUP 36 2.2.1 Co-Simulation Principles 36 2.2.2 Double pendulum : a simple example 38 2.2.3 Description of numerical... pendulum sample problem 45 2.3 DISCUSSION OF APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO PROPOSED SUBTASKS 49 2.4 RESULTS DISCUSSION AND FUTURE WORK 49 TASK 3...Kim and Praehofer 2000]. 2.2.2 Double pendulum : a simple example In order to be able to evaluate co-simulation principles, specifically an

High temperature heat exchangers for gas turbines and future hypersonic air breathing propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avran, Patrick; Bernard, Pierre

After surveying the results of ONERA's investigations to date of metallic and ceramic heat exchangers applicable to automotive and aircraft powerplants, which are primarily of finned-tube counterflow configuration, attention is given to the influence of heat-exchanger effectiveness on fuel consumption and exchanger dimensions and weight. Emphasis is placed on the results of studies of cryogenic heat exchangers used by airbreathing hypersonic propulsion systems. The numerical codes developed by ONERA for the modeling of heat exchanger thermodynamics are evaluated.

NASA's supercomputing experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, F. Ron

1990-01-01

A brief overview of NASA's recent experience in supercomputing is presented from two perspectives: early systems development and advanced supercomputing applications. NASA's role in supercomputing systems development is illustrated by discussion of activities carried out by the Numerical Aerodynamical Simulation Program. Current capabilities in advanced technology applications are illustrated with examples in turbulence physics, aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics, chemistry, and structural mechanics. Capabilities in science applications are illustrated by examples in astrophysics and atmospheric modeling. Future directions and NASA's new High Performance Computing Program are briefly discussed.

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.; Roszman, L.; Cooley, J.

1992-01-01

Numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series are presented. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical invariants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), given a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.; Roszman, L.; Cooley, J.

1993-01-01

This paper presents numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical in variants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), give a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Qualitative and temporal reasoning in engine behavior analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dietz, W. E.; Stamps, M. E.; Ali, M.

1987-01-01

Numerical simulation models, engine experts, and experimental data are used to generate qualitative and temporal representations of abnormal engine behavior. Engine parameters monitored during operation are used to generate qualitative and temporal representations of actual engine behavior. Similarities between the representations of failure scenarios and the actual engine behavior are used to diagnose fault conditions which have already occurred, or are about to occur; to increase the surveillance by the monitoring system of relevant engine parameters; and to predict likely future engine behavior.

Numerical study of the magnetized friction force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotov, A. V.; Bruhwiler, D. L.; Sidorin, A. O.; Abell, D. T.; Ben-Zvi, I.; Busby, R.; Cary, J. R.; Litvinenko, V. N.

2006-07-01

Fundamental advances in experimental nuclear physics will require ion beams with orders of magnitude luminosity increase and temperature reduction. One of the most promising particle accelerator techniques for achieving these goals is electron cooling, where the ion beam repeatedly transfers thermal energy to a copropagating electron beam. The dynamical friction force on a fully ionized gold ion moving through magnetized and unmagnetized electron distributions has been simulated, using molecular dynamics techniques that resolve close binary collisions. We present a comprehensive examination of theoretical models in use by the electron cooling community. Differences in these models are clarified, enabling the accurate design of future electron cooling systems for relativistic ion accelerators.

75 FR 41914 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-19

... consolidated last sale price by the same specified percentage. The numerical percentage proposed to be used in the Trading Collar price calculations will be equal to the appropriate ``numerical guideline... Collars will automatically be adjusted to match any future changes in the numerical guidelines in NYSE...

Evaluating cloud processes in large-scale models: Of idealized case studies, parameterization testbeds and single-column modelling on climate time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neggers, Roel

2016-04-01

Boundary-layer schemes have always formed an integral part of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for numerical weather and climate prediction. The spatial and temporal scales associated with boundary-layer processes and clouds are typically much smaller than those at which GCMs are discretized, which makes their representation through parameterization a necessity. The need for generally applicable boundary-layer parameterizations has motivated many scientific studies, which in effect has created its own active research field in the atmospheric sciences. Of particular interest has been the evaluation of boundary-layer schemes at "process-level". This means that parameterized physics are studied in isolated mode from the larger-scale circulation, using prescribed forcings and excluding any upscale interaction. Although feedbacks are thus prevented, the benefit is an enhanced model transparency, which might aid an investigator in identifying model errors and understanding model behavior. The popularity and success of the process-level approach is demonstrated by the many past and ongoing model inter-comparison studies that have been organized by initiatives such as GCSS/GASS. A red line in the results of these studies is that although most schemes somehow manage to capture first-order aspects of boundary layer cloud fields, there certainly remains room for improvement in many areas. Only too often are boundary layer parameterizations still found to be at the heart of problems in large-scale models, negatively affecting forecast skills of NWP models or causing uncertainty in numerical predictions of future climate. How to break this parameterization "deadlock" remains an open problem. This presentation attempts to give an overview of the various existing methods for the process-level evaluation of boundary-layer physics in large-scale models. This includes i) idealized case studies, ii) longer-term evaluation at permanent meteorological sites (the testbed approach), and iii) process-level evaluation at climate time-scales. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach will be identified and discussed, and some thoughts about possible future developments will be given.

Applying Kalman filtering to investigate tropospheric effects in VLBI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Benedikt; Nilsson, Tobias; Karbon, Maria; Heinkelmann, Robert; Liu, Li; Lu, Cuixian; Andres Mora-Diaz, Julian; Raposo-Pulido, Virginia; Xu, Minghui; Schuh, Harald

2014-05-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) currently provides results, e.g., estimates of the tropospheric delays, with a delay of more than two weeks. In the future, with the coming VLBI2010 Global Observing System (VGOS) and increased usage of electronic data transfer, it is planned that the time between observations and results is decreased. This may, for instance, allow the integration of VLBI-derived tropospheric delays into numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, future VLBI analysis software packages need to be able to process the observational data autonomously in near real-time. For this purpose, we have extended the Vienna VLBI Software (VieVS) by a Kalman filter module. This presentation describes the filter and discusses its application for tropospheric studies. Instead of estimating zenith wet delays as piece-wise linear functions in a least-squares adjustment, the Kalman filter allows for more sophisticated stochastic modeling. We start with a random walk process to model the time-dependent behavior of the zenith wet delays. Other possible approaches include the stochastic model described by turbulence theory, e.g. the model by Treuhaft and Lanyi (1987). Different variance-covariance matrices of the prediction error, depending on the time of the year and the geographic latitude, have been tested. In winter and closer to the poles, lower variances and covariances are appropriate. The horizontal variations in tropospheric delays have been investigated by comparing three different strategies: assumption of a horizontally stratified troposphere, using north and south gradients modeled, e.g., as Gauss-Markov processes, and applying a turbulence model assuming correlations between observations in different azimuths. By conducting Monte-Carlo simulations of current standard VLBI networks and of future VGOS networks, the different tropospheric modeling strategies are investigated. For this purpose, we use the simulator module of VieVS which takes into account the errors due to the atomic clocks at the stations, the troposphere, and white noise processes. The simulated data as well as actual observational data from the two-week CONT11 campaign are analyzed using the Kalman filter, focusing on the tropospheric effects. The results of the different strategies are compared with solutions applying the classical least-squares method. An advantage of the Kalman filter is the possibility of easily integrating additional external information. It is expected that by including tropospheric delays from GNSS, water vapor radiometers, or ray-traced delays from numerical weather prediction models, the accuracy of the VLBI solution could be improved.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

RAMI4PILPS: An intercomparison of formulations for the partitioning of solar radiation in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlowski, J.-L.; Pinty, B.; Clerici, M.; Dai, Y.; de Kauwe, M.; De Ridder, K.; Kallel, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Lavergne, T.; Ni-Meister, W.; Olchev, A.; Quaife, T.; Wang, S.; Yang, W.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, H.

2011-06-01

Remotely sensed, multiannual data sets of shortwave radiative surface fluxes are now available for assimilation into land surface schemes (LSSs) of climate and/or numerical weather prediction models. The RAMI4PILPS suite of virtual experiments assesses the accuracy and consistency of the radiative transfer formulations that provide the magnitudes of absorbed, reflected, and transmitted shortwave radiative fluxes in LSSs. RAMI4PILPS evaluates models under perfectly controlled experimental conditions in order to eliminate uncertainties arising from an incomplete or erroneous knowledge of the structural, spectral and illumination related canopy characteristics typical for model comparison with in situ observations. More specifically, the shortwave radiation is separated into a visible and near-infrared spectral region, and the quality of the simulated radiative fluxes is evaluated by direct comparison with a 3-D Monte Carlo reference model identified during the third phase of the Radiation transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise. The RAMI4PILPS setup thus allows to focus in particular on the numerical accuracy of shortwave radiative transfer formulations and to pinpoint to areas where future model improvements should concentrate. The impact of increasing degrees of structural and spectral subgrid variability on the simulated fluxes is documented and the relevance of any thus emerging biases with respect to gross primary production estimates and shortwave radiative forcings due to snow and fire events are investigated.

Improved Subcell Model for the Prediction of Braided Composite Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cater, Christopher R.; Xinran, Xiao; Goldberg, Robert K.; Kohlman, Lee W.

2013-01-01

In this work, the modeling of triaxially braided composites was explored through a semi-analytical discretization. Four unique subcells, each approximated by a "mosaic" stacking of unidirectional composite plies, were modeled through the use of layered-shell elements within the explicit finite element code LS-DYNA. Two subcell discretizations were investigated: a model explicitly capturing pure matrix regions, and a novel model which absorbed pure matrix pockets into neighboring tow plies. The in-plane stiffness properties of both models, computed using bottom-up micromechanics, correlated well to experimental data. The absorbed matrix model, however, was found to best capture out-of- plane flexural properties by comparing numerical simulations of the out-of-plane displacements from single-ply tension tests to experimental full field data. This strong correlation of out-of-plane characteristics supports the current modeling approach as a viable candidate for future work involving impact simulations.

Distribution of aerosolized particles in healthy and emphysematous rat lungs: comparison between experimental and numerical studies.

PubMed

Oakes, Jessica M; Marsden, Alison L; Grandmont, Céline; Darquenne, Chantal; Vignon-Clementel, Irene E

2015-04-13

In silico models of airflow and particle deposition in the lungs are increasingly used to determine the therapeutic or toxic effects of inhaled aerosols. While computational methods have advanced significantly, relatively few studies have directly compared model predictions to experimental data. Furthermore, few prior studies have examined the influence of emphysema on particle deposition. In this work we performed airflow and particle simulations to compare numerical predictions to data from our previous aerosol exposure experiments. Employing an image-based 3D rat airway geometry, we first compared steady flow simulations to coupled 3D-0D unsteady simulations in the healthy rat lung. Then, in 3D-0D simulations, the influence of emphysema was investigated by matching disease location to the experimental study. In both the healthy unsteady and steady simulations, good agreement was found between numerical predictions of aerosol delivery and experimental deposition data. However, deposition patterns in the 3D geometry differed between the unsteady and steady cases. On the contrary, satisfactory agreement was not found between the numerical predictions and experimental data for the emphysematous lungs. This indicates that the deposition rate downstream of the 3D geometry is likely proportional to airflow delivery in the healthy lungs, but not in the emphysematous lungs. Including small airway collapse, variations in downstream airway size and tissue properties, and tracking particles throughout expiration may result in a more favorable agreement in future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The combustion program at CTR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poinsot, Thierry J.

1993-01-01

Understanding and modeling of turbulent combustion are key problems in the computation of numerous practical systems. Because of the lack of analytical theories in this field and of the difficulty of performing precise experiments, direct numerical simulation (DNS) appears to be one of the most attractive tools to use in addressing this problem. The general objective of DNS of reacting flows is to improve our knowledge of turbulent combustion but also to use this information for turbulent combustion models. For the foreseeable future, numerical simulation of the full three-dimensional governing partial differential equations with variable density and transport properties as well as complex chemistry will remain intractable; thus, various levels of simplification will remain necessary. On one hand, the requirement to simplify is not necessarily a handicap: numerical simulations allow the researcher a degree of control in isolating specific physical phenomena that is inaccessible in experiments. CTR has pursued an intensive research program in the field of DNS for turbulent reacting flows since 1987. DNS of reacting flows is quite different from DNS of non-reacting flows: without reaction, the equations to solve are clearly the five conservation equations of the Navier Stokes system for compressible situations (four for incompressible cases), and the limitation of the approach is the Reynolds number (or in other words the number of points in the computation). For reacting flows, the choice of the equations, the species (each species will require one additional conservation equation), the chemical scheme, and the configuration itself is more complex.

Prediction of daily sea surface temperature using efficient neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Kalpesh; Deo, Makaranad Chintamani

2017-04-01

Short-term prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) is commonly achieved through numerical models. Numerical approaches are more suitable for use over a large spatial domain than in a specific site because of the difficulties involved in resolving various physical sub-processes at local levels. Therefore, for a given location, a data-driven approach such as neural networks may provide a better alternative. The application of neural networks, however, needs a large experimentation in their architecture, training methods, and formation of appropriate input-output pairs. A network trained in this manner can provide more attractive results if the advances in network architecture are additionally considered. With this in mind, we propose the use of wavelet neural networks (WNNs) for prediction of daily SST values. The prediction of daily SST values was carried out using WNN over 5 days into the future at six different locations in the Indian Ocean. First, the accuracy of site-specific SST values predicted by a numerical model, ROMS, was assessed against the in situ records. The result pointed out the necessity for alternative approaches. First, traditional networks were tried and after noticing their poor performance, WNN was used. This approach produced attractive forecasts when judged through various error statistics. When all locations were viewed together, the mean absolute error was within 0.18 to 0.32 °C for a 5-day-ahead forecast. The WNN approach was thus found to add value to the numerical method of SST prediction when location-specific information is desired.

Common Analysis Tool Being Developed for Aeropropulsion: The National Cycle Program Within the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Follen, Gregory J.; Naiman, Cynthia G.

1999-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center is developing an environment for analyzing and designing aircraft engines-the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). NPSS will integrate multiple disciplines, such as aerodynamics, structure, and heat transfer, and will make use of numerical "zooming" on component codes. Zooming is the coupling of analyses at various levels of detail. NPSS uses the latest computing and communication technologies to capture complex physical processes in a timely, cost-effective manner. The vision of NPSS is to create a "numerical test cell" enabling full engine simulations overnight on cost-effective computing platforms. Through the NASA/Industry Cooperative Effort agreement, NASA Lewis and industry partners are developing a new engine simulation called the National Cycle Program (NCP). NCP, which is the first step toward NPSS and is its initial framework, supports the aerothermodynamic system simulation process for the full life cycle of an engine. U.S. aircraft and airframe companies recognize NCP as the future industry standard common analysis tool for aeropropulsion system modeling. The estimated potential payoff for NCP is a $50 million/yr savings to industry through improved engineering productivity.

Signatures of neutrino cooling in the SN1987A scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraija, N.; Bernal, C. G.; Hidalgo-Gaméz, A. M.

2014-07-01

The neutrino signal from SN1987A confirmed the core-collapse scenario and the possible formation of a neutron star. Although this compact object has eluded all observations, theoretical and numerical developments have allowed a glimpse of the fate of it. In particular, a hypercritical accretion model has been proposed to forecast the accretion of ˜0.15 M⊙ in two hours and the subsequent submergence of the magnetic field in the newborn neutron star. In this paper, we revisit Chevalier's model in a numerical framework, focusing on the neutrino cooling effect on the supernova fall-back dynamics. For that, using a customized version of the FLASH code, we carry out numerical simulations of the accretion of matter on to the newborn neutron star in order to estimate the size of the neutrino-sphere, the emissivity and luminosity of neutrinos. As a signature of this phase, we estimate the neutrinos expected on SK neutrino experiment and their flavour ratios. This is academically important because, although currently it was very difficult to detect 1.46 thermal neutrinos and their oscillations, these fingerprints are the only viable and reliable way to confirm the hypercritical phase. Perhaps new techniques for detecting neutrino oscillations will arise in the near future allowing us to confirm our estimates.

How a future energy world could look?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewert, M.

2012-10-01

The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

A parallel direct numerical simulation of dust particles in a turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, H. V.; Yokota, R.; Stenchikov, G.; Kocurek, G.

2012-04-01

Due to their effects on radiation transport, aerosols play an important role in the global climate. Mineral dust aerosol is a predominant natural aerosol in the desert and semi-desert regions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The Arabian Peninsula is one of the three predominant source regions on the planet "exporting" dust to almost the entire world. Mineral dust aerosols make up about 50% of the tropospheric aerosol mass and therefore produces a significant impact on the Earth's climate and the atmospheric environment, especially in the MENA region that is characterized by frequent dust storms and large aerosol generation. Understanding the mechanisms of dust emission, transport and deposition is therefore essential for correctly representing dust in numerical climate prediction. In this study we present results of numerical simulations of dust particles in a turbulent flow to study the interaction between dust and the atmosphere. Homogenous and passive dust particles in the boundary layers are entrained and advected under the influence of a turbulent flow. Currently no interactions between particles are included. Turbulence is resolved through direct numerical simulation using a parallel incompressible Navier-Stokes flow solver. Model output provides information on particle trajectories, turbulent transport of dust and effects of gravity on dust motion, which will be used to compare with the wind tunnel experiments at University of Texas at Austin. Results of testing of parallel efficiency and scalability is provided. Future versions of the model will include air-particle momentum exchanges, varying particle sizes and saltation effect. The results will be used for interpreting wind tunnel and field experiments and for improvement of dust generation parameterizations in meteorological models.

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

PubMed

Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2017-04-01

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map

Stability of volcanic ash aggregates and break-up processes.

PubMed

Mueller, Sebastian B; Kueppers, Ulrich; Ametsbichler, Jonathan; Cimarelli, Corrado; Merrison, Jonathan P; Poret, Matthieu; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Dingwell, Donald B

2017-08-07

Numerical modeling of ash plume dispersal is an important tool for forecasting and mitigating potential hazards from volcanic ash erupted during explosive volcanism. Recent tephra dispersal models have been expanded to account for dynamic ash aggregation processes. However, there are very few studies on rates of disaggregation during transport. It follows that current models regard ash aggregation as irrevocable and may therefore overestimate aggregation-enhanced sedimentation. In this experimental study, we use industrial granulation techniques to artificially produce aggregates. We subject these to impact tests and evaluate their resistance to break-up processes. We find a dependence of aggregate stability on primary particle size distribution and solid particle binder concentration. We posit that our findings could be combined with eruption source parameters and implemented in future tephra dispersal models.

Moving Contact Lines: Linking Molecular Dynamics and Continuum-Scale Modeling.

PubMed

Smith, Edward R; Theodorakis, Panagiotis E; Craster, Richard V; Matar, Omar K

2018-05-17

Despite decades of research, the modeling of moving contact lines has remained a formidable challenge in fluid dynamics whose resolution will impact numerous industrial, biological, and daily life applications. On the one hand, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation has the ability to provide unique insight into the microscopic details that determine the dynamic behavior of the contact line, which is not possible with either continuum-scale simulations or experiments. On the other hand, continuum-based models provide a link to the macroscopic description of the system. In this Feature Article, we explore the complex range of physical factors, including the presence of surfactants, which governs the contact line motion through MD simulations. We also discuss links between continuum- and molecular-scale modeling and highlight the opportunities for future developments in this area.

Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

2013-04-01

Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.

PubMed

Pholkern, Kewaree; Saraphirom, Phayom; Srisuk, Kriengsak

2018-08-15

The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.

2015-12-11

Problem: The overall goal of this proposal is to detect observed seasonal-mean precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. Detection, e.g. the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is unusual, first requires some means of estimating the range of internal variability absent any external drivers. Ideally, the internal variability would be derived from the observations themselves, however generally the observed variability is a confluence of both internal variability and variability in response to external drivers. Further, numerical climate models—the standard tool for detection studies—have their own estimates of intrinsic variability, which may differ substantiallymore » from that found in the observed system as well as other model systems. These problems are further compounded for weather and climate extremes, which as singular events are particularly ill-suited for detection studies because of their infrequent occurrence, limited spatial range, and underestimation within global and even regional numerical models. Rationale: As a basis for this research we will show how stochastic daily-precipitation models—models in which the simulated interannual-to-multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—can be used to address many of these issues simultaneously. Through the novel application of these well-established models, we can first estimate the changes/trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed daily-precipitation characteristics, e.g. that can occur simply as a result of the stochastic evolution of daily weather events within a given climate. Detection of a change in the observed climate—either naturally or anthropogenically forced—can then be defined as any change relative to this stochastic variability, e.g. as changes/trends in the means and extremes that could only have occurred through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.« less

Verification of a Multiphysics Toolkit against the Magnetized Target Fusion Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Scott; Perrell, Eric; Liron, Caroline; Chiroux, Robert; Cassibry, Jason; Adams, Robert B.

2005-01-01

In the spring of 2004 the Advanced Concepts team at MSFC embarked on an ambitious project to develop a suite of modeling routines that would interact with one another. The tools would each numerically model a portion of any advanced propulsion system. The tools were divided by physics categories, hence the name multiphysics toolset. Currently most of the anticipated modeling tools have been created and integrated. Results are given in this paper for both a quarter nozzle with chemically reacting flow and the interaction of two plasma jets representative of a Magnetized Target Fusion device. The results have not been calibrated against real data as of yet, but this paper demonstrates the current capability of the multiphysics tool and planned future enhancements

Mechanics of airflow in the human nasal airways.

PubMed

Doorly, D J; Taylor, D J; Schroter, R C

2008-11-30

The mechanics of airflow in the human nasal airways is reviewed, drawing on the findings of experimental and computational model studies. Modelling inevitably requires simplifications and assumptions, particularly given the complexity of the nasal airways. The processes entailed in modelling the nasal airways (from defining the model, to its production and, finally, validating the results) is critically examined, both for physical models and for computational simulations. Uncertainty still surrounds the appropriateness of the various assumptions made in modelling, particularly with regard to the nature of flow. New results are presented in which high-speed particle image velocimetry (PIV) and direct numerical simulation are applied to investigate the development of flow instability in the nasal cavity. These illustrate some of the improved capabilities afforded by technological developments for future model studies. The need for further improvements in characterising airway geometry and flow together with promising new methods are briefly discussed.

Design and Operation of the Synthesis Gas Generator System for Reformed Propane and Glycerin Combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickett, Derek Kyle

Due to an increased interest in sustainable energy, biodiesel has become much more widely used in the last several years. Glycerin, one major waste component in biodiesel production, can be converted into a hydrogen rich synthesis gas to be used in an engine generator to recover energy from the biodiesel production process. This thesis contains information detailing the production, testing, and analysis of a unique synthesis generator rig at the University of Kansas. Chapter 2 gives a complete background of all major components, as well as how they are operated. In addition to component descriptions, methods for operating the system on pure propane, reformed propane, reformed glycerin along with the methodology of data acquisition is described. This chapter will serve as a complete operating manual for future students to continue research on the project. Chapter 3 details the literature review that was completed to better understand fuel reforming of propane and glycerin. This chapter also describes the numerical model produced to estimate the species produced during reformation activities. The model was applied to propane reformation in a proof of concept and calibration test before moving to glycerin reformation and its subsequent combustion. Chapter 4 first describes the efforts to apply the numerical model to glycerin using the calibration tools from propane reformation. It then discusses catalytic material preparation and glycerin reformation tests. Gas chromatography analysis of the reformer effluent was completed to compare to theoretical values from the numerical model. Finally, combustion of reformed glycerin was completed for power generation. Tests were completed to compare emissions from syngas combustion and propane combustion.

Developmental framework to validate future designs of ballistic neck protection.

PubMed

Breeze, J; Midwinter, M J; Pope, D; Porter, K; Hepper, A E; Clasper, J

2013-01-01

The number of neck injuries has increased during the war in Afghanistan, and they have become an appreciable source of mortality and long-term morbidity for UK servicemen. A three-dimensional numerical model of the neck is necessary to allow simulation of penetrating injury from explosive fragments so that the design of body armour can be optimal, and a framework is required to validate and describe the individual components of this program. An interdisciplinary consensus group consisting of military maxillofacial surgeons, and biomedical, physical, and material scientists was convened to generate the components of the framework, and as a result it incorporates the following components: analysis of deaths and long-term morbidity, assessment of critical cervical structures for incorporation into the model, characterisation of explosive fragments, evaluation of the material of which the body armour is made, and mapping of the entry sites of fragments. The resulting numerical model will simulate the wound tract produced by fragments of differing masses and velocities, and illustrate the effects of temporary cavities on cervical neurovascular structures. Using this framework, a new shirt to be worn under body armour that incorporates ballistic cervical protection has been developed for use in Afghanistan. New designs of the collar validated by human factors and assessment of coverage are currently being incorporated into early versions of the numerical model. The aim of this paper is to describe this developmental framework and provide an update on the current progress of its individual components. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for the coupling of the Greater Bairam and local environmental factors in promoting Rift-Valley Fever epizootics in Egypt.

PubMed

Gil, H; Qualls, W A; Cosner, C; DeAngelis, D L; Hassan, A; Gad, A M; Ruan, S; Cantrell, S R; Beier, J C

2016-01-01

Rift-Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne disease in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Drivers for this disease vary by region and are not well understood for North African countries such as Egypt. A deeper understanding of RVF risk factors would inform disease management policies. The present study employs mathematical and computational modeling techniques to ascertain the extent to which the severity of RVF epizootics in Egypt differs depending on the interaction between imported ruminant and environmentally-constrained mosquito populations. An ordinary differential system of equations, a numerical model, and an individual-based model (IBM) were constructed to represent RVF disease dynamics between localized mosquitoes and ruminants being imported into Egypt for the Greater Bairam. Four cases, corresponding to the Greater Bairam's occurrence during distinct quarters of the solar year, were set up in both models to assess whether the different season-associated mosquito populations present during the Greater Bairam resulted in RVF epizootics of variable magnitudes. The numerical model and the IBM produced nearly identical results: ruminant and mosquito population plots for both models were similar in shape and magnitude for all four cases. In both models, all four cases differed in the severity of their corresponding simulated RVF epizootics. The four cases, ranked by the severity of the simulated RVF epizootics in descending order, correspond with the occurrence of the Greater Bairam on the following months: July, October, April, and January. The numerical model was assessed for sensitivity with respect to parameter values and exhibited a high degree of robustness. Limiting the importation of infected ruminants beginning one month prior to the Greater Bairam festival (on years in which the festival falls between the months of July and October: 2014-2022) might be a feasible way of mitigating future RVF epizootics in Egypt. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian maximum entropy integration of ozone observations and model predictions: an application for attainment demonstration in North Carolina.

PubMed

de Nazelle, Audrey; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Serre, Marc L

2010-08-01

States in the USA are required to demonstrate future compliance of criteria air pollutant standards by using both air quality monitors and model outputs. In the case of ozone, the demonstration tests aim at relying heavily on measured values, due to their perceived objectivity and enforceable quality. Weight given to numerical models is diminished by integrating them in the calculations only in a relative sense. For unmonitored locations, the EPA has suggested the use of a spatial interpolation technique to assign current values. We demonstrate that this approach may lead to erroneous assignments of nonattainment and may make it difficult for States to establish future compliance. We propose a method that combines different sources of information to map air pollution, using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Framework. The approach gives precedence to measured values and integrates modeled data as a function of model performance. We demonstrate this approach in North Carolina, using the State's ozone monitoring network in combination with outputs from the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP) modeling system. We show that the BME data integration approach, compared to a spatial interpolation of measured data, improves the accuracy and the precision of ozone estimations across the state.

The development and preliminary psychometric evaluation of an attachment Implicit Association Task.

PubMed

Venta, Amanda; Jardin, Charles; Kalpakci, Allison; Sharp, Carla

2016-01-01

The importance of measuring attachment insecurity is underscored by a vast literature tying attachment insecurity to numerous psychological disorders. Self-report measures assess explicit attachment beliefs and experiences, while interview measures, like the Adult Attachment Interview, assess implicit internal working models about the self as worthy of care and others as reliable sources of care. The present study is a preliminary psychometric evaluation of a potentially cost-effective method of assessing implicit internal working models of attachment through the development of an Implicit Association Test (IAT). A racially diverse sample of 104 college females was administered Internet-based versions of three IATs (assessing views of the self, mother, and father) as well as self-report measures of attachment and interpersonal problems. Analyses were conducted to evaluate the (a) internal consistency of each task, (b) correlations among the tasks, (c) concurrent validity, and (d) convergent validity. Adequate internal consistency was noted and correlations among the three IATs were significant. No significant associations were observed between the explicit self-report measures of attachment and the IATs. Two primary areas for future research are discussed. First, future research should utilize an implicit attachment measure alongside an IAT. Second, future research should reevaluate the IAT stimuli used.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

[Comparison between the Range of Movement Canine Real Cervical Spine and Numerical Simulation - Computer Model Validation].

PubMed

Srnec, R; Horák, Z; Sedláček, R; Sedlinská, M; Krbec, M; Nečas, A

2017-01-01

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY In developing new or modifying the existing surgical treatment methods of spine conditions an integral part of ex vivo experiments is the assessment of mechanical, kinematic and dynamic properties of created constructions. The aim of the study is to create an appropriately validated numerical model of canine cervical spine in order to obtain a tool for basic research to be applied in cervical spine surgeries. For this purpose, canine is a suitable model due to the occurrence of similar cervical spine conditions in some breeds of dogs and in humans. The obtained model can also be used in research and in clinical veterinary practice. MATERIAL AND METHODS In order to create a 3D spine model, the LightSpeed 16 (GE, Milwaukee, USA) multidetector computed tomography was used to scan the cervical spine of Doberman Pinscher. The data were transmitted to Mimics 12 software (Materialise HQ, Belgium), in which the individual vertebrae were segmented on CT scans by thresholding. The vertebral geometry was exported to Rhinoceros software (McNeel North America, USA) for modelling, and subsequently the specialised software Abaqus (Dassault Systemes, France) was used to analyse the response of the physiological spine model to external load by the finite element method (FEM). All the FEM based numerical simulations were considered as nonlinear contact statistic tasks. In FEM analyses, angles between individual spinal segments were monitored in dependence on ventroflexion/ /dorziflexion. The data were validated using the latero-lateral radiographs of cervical spine of large breed dogs with no evident clinical signs of cervical spine conditions. The radiographs within the cervical spine range of motion were taken at three different positions: in neutral position, in maximal ventroflexion and in maximal dorziflexion. On X-rays, vertebral inclination angles in monitored spine positions were measured and compared with the results obtain0ed from FEM analyses of the numerical model. RESULTS It is obvious from the results that the physiological spine model tested by the finite element method shows a very similar mechanical behaviour as the physiological canine spine. The biggest difference identified between the resulting values was reported in C6-C7 segment in dorsiflexion (Δφ = 5.95%), or in C4-C5 segment in ventroflexion (Δφ = -3.09%). CONCLUSIONS The comparisons between the mobility of cervical spine in ventroflexion/dorsiflexion on radiographs of the real models and the simulated numerical model by finite element method showed a high degree of results conformity with a minimal difference. Therefore, for future experiments the validated numerical model can be used as a tool of basic research on condition that the results of analyses carried out by finite element method will be affected only by an insignificant error. The computer model, on the other hand, is merely a simplified system and in comparison with the real situation cannot fully evaluate the dynamics of the action of forces in time, their variability, and also the individual effects of supportive skeletal tissues. Based on what has been said above, it is obvious that there is a need to exercise restraint in interpreting the obtained results. Key words: cervical spine, kinematics, numerical modelling, finite element method, canine.

Predictive performance modeling framework for a novel enclosed particle receiver configuration and application for thermochemical energy storage

DOE PAGES

Martinek, Janna; Wendelin, Timothy; Ma, Zhiwen

2018-04-05

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants can provide dispatchable power with a thermal energy storage capability for increased renewable-energy grid penetration. Particle-based CSP systems permit higher temperatures, and thus, potentially higher solar-to-electric efficiency than state-of-the-art molten-salt heat-transfer systems. This paper describes a detailed numerical analysis framework for estimating the performance of a novel, geometrically complex, enclosed particle receiver design. The receiver configuration uses arrays of small tubular absorbers to collect and subsequently transfer solar energy to a flowing particulate medium. The enclosed nature of the receiver design renders it amenable to either an inert heat-transfer medium, or a reactive heat-transfer medium that requires a controllable ambient environment. The numerical analysis framework described in this study is demonstrated for the case of thermal reduction of CaCr 0.1Mn 0.9O 3-more » $$\\delta$$ for thermochemical energy storage. The modeling strategy consists of Monte Carlo ray tracing for absorbed solar-energy distributions from a surround heliostat field, computational fluid dynamics modeling of small-scale local tubular arrays, surrogate response surfaces that approximately capture simulated tubular array performance, a quasi-two-dimensional reduced-order description of counter-flow reactive solids and purge gas, and a radiative exchange model applied to embedded-cavity structures at the size scale of the full receiver. In this work we apply the numerical analysis strategy to a single receiver configuration, but the framework can be generically applicable to alternative enclosed designs. In conclusion, we assess sensitivity of receiver performance to surface optical properties, heat-transfer coefficients, solids outlet temperature, and purge-gas feed rates, and discuss the significance of model assumptions and results for future receiver development.« less

Predictive performance modeling framework for a novel enclosed particle receiver configuration and application for thermochemical energy storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martinek, Janna; Wendelin, Timothy; Ma, Zhiwen

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants can provide dispatchable power with a thermal energy storage capability for increased renewable-energy grid penetration. Particle-based CSP systems permit higher temperatures, and thus, potentially higher solar-to-electric efficiency than state-of-the-art molten-salt heat-transfer systems. This paper describes a detailed numerical analysis framework for estimating the performance of a novel, geometrically complex, enclosed particle receiver design. The receiver configuration uses arrays of small tubular absorbers to collect and subsequently transfer solar energy to a flowing particulate medium. The enclosed nature of the receiver design renders it amenable to either an inert heat-transfer medium, or a reactive heat-transfer medium that requires a controllable ambient environment. The numerical analysis framework described in this study is demonstrated for the case of thermal reduction of CaCr 0.1Mn 0.9O 3-more » $$\\delta$$ for thermochemical energy storage. The modeling strategy consists of Monte Carlo ray tracing for absorbed solar-energy distributions from a surround heliostat field, computational fluid dynamics modeling of small-scale local tubular arrays, surrogate response surfaces that approximately capture simulated tubular array performance, a quasi-two-dimensional reduced-order description of counter-flow reactive solids and purge gas, and a radiative exchange model applied to embedded-cavity structures at the size scale of the full receiver. In this work we apply the numerical analysis strategy to a single receiver configuration, but the framework can be generically applicable to alternative enclosed designs. In conclusion, we assess sensitivity of receiver performance to surface optical properties, heat-transfer coefficients, solids outlet temperature, and purge-gas feed rates, and discuss the significance of model assumptions and results for future receiver development.« less

Evaluation of an operational water cycle prediction system for the Laurentian Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortin, Vincent; Durnford, Dorothy; Smith, Gregory; Dyck, Sarah; Martinez, Yosvany; Mackay, Murray; Winter, Barbara

2017-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing new numerical guidance products based on fully coupled numerical models to better inform the public as well as specialized users on the current and future state of various components of the water cycle, including stream flow and water levels. Outputs from this new system, named the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS), have been available for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed since June 2016. WCPS links together ECCC's weather forecasting model, GEM, the 2-D ice model C-ICE, the 3-D lake and ocean model NEMO, and a 2-D hydrological model, WATROUTE. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models at intervals varying from a few minutes to one hour. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days of the complete water cycle in the Great Lakes region, the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Products include spatially-varying precipitation, evaporation, river discharge, water level anomalies, surface water temperatures, ice coverage, and surface currents. These new products are of interest to water resources and management authority, flood forecasters, hydroelectricity producers, navigation, environmental disaster managers, search and rescue teams, agriculture, and the general public. This presentation focuses on the evaluation of various elements forecasted by the system, and weighs the advantages and disadvantages of running the system fully coupled.

Simulating a High-Spin Black Hole-Neutron Star Binary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derby, John; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Duez, Matt; Foucart, Francois; Simulating Extreme Spacetimes (SXS) Collaboration

2017-01-01

During their first observing run (fall 2015) Advanced LIGO detected gravitational waves from merging black holes. In its future observations LIGO could detect black hole neutron star binaries (BHNS). It is important to have numerical simulations to predict these waves, to help find as many of these waves as possible and to estimate the sources properties, because at times near merger analytic approximations fail. Also, numerical models of the disk formed when the black hole tears apart the neutron star can help us learn about these systems' potential electromagnetic counterparts. One area of the parameter space for BHNS systems that is particularly challenging is simulations with high black hole spin. I will present results from a new BHNS simulation that has a black hole spin of 90% of the theoretical maximum. We are part of SXS but not all.

Design and simulation of a cable-pulley-based transmission for artificial ankle joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huaxin; Ceccarelli, Marco; Huang, Qiang

2016-06-01

In this paper, a mechanical transmission based on cable pulley is proposed for human-like actuation in the artificial ankle joints of human-scale. The anatomy articular characteristics of the human ankle is discussed for proper biomimetic inspiration in designing an accurate, efficient, and robust motion control of artificial ankle joint devices. The design procedure is presented through the inclusion of conceptual considerations and design details for an interactive solution of the transmission system. A mechanical design is elaborated for the ankle joint angular with pitch motion. A multi-body dynamic simulation model is elaborated accordingly and evaluated numerically in the ADAMS environment. Results of the numerical simulations are discussed to evaluate the dynamic performance of the proposed design solution and to investigate the feasibility of the proposed design in future applications for humanoid robots.

Ionospheric behaviour during storm recovery phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buresova, D.; Lastovicka, J.; Boska, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Chum, J.

2012-04-01

Intensive ionospheric research, numerous multi-instrumental observations and large-scale numerical simulations of ionospheric F region response to magnetic storm-induced disturbances during the last several decades were primarily focused on the storm main phase, in most cases covering only a few hours of the recovery phase following after storm culmination. Ionospheric behaviour during entire recovery phase still belongs to not sufficiently explored and hardly predictable features. In general, the recovery phase is characterized by an abatement of perturbations and a gradual return to the "ground state" of ionosphere. However, observations of stormy ionosphere show significant departures from the climatology also within this phase. This paper deals with the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ionospheric behaviour during the entire recovery phase of strong-to-severe magnetic storms at middle latitudes for nowadays and future modelling and forecasting purposes.

Digital reconstruction of Young's fringes using Fresnel transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulenovic, Rudi; Song, Yaozu; Renninger, P.; Groll, Manfred

1997-11-01

This paper deals with the digital numerical reconstruction of Young's fringes from laser speckle photography by means of the Fresnel-transformation. The physical model of the optical reconstruction of a specklegram is a near-field Fresnel-diffraction phenomenon which can be mathematically described by the Fresnel-transformation. Therefore, the interference phenomena can be directly calculated by a microcomputer.If additional a CCD-camera is used for specklegram recording the measurement procedure and evaluation process can be completely carried out in a digital way. Compared with conventional laser speckle photography no holographic plates, no wet development process and no optical specklegram reconstruction are needed. These advantages reveal a wide future in scientific and engineering applications. The basic principle of the numerical reconstruction is described, the effects of experimental parameters of Young's fringes are analyzed and representative results are presented.

The most powerful astrophysical events: Gravitational-wave peak luminosity of binary black holes as predicted by numerical relativity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keitel, David; Forteza, Xisco Jiménez; Husa, Sascha; London, Lionel; Bernuzzi, Sebastiano; Harms, Enno; Nagar, Alessandro; Hannam, Mark; Khan, Sebastian; Pürrer, Michael; Pratten, Geraint; Chaurasia, Vivek

2017-07-01

For a brief moment, a binary black hole (BBH) merger can be the most powerful astrophysical event in the visible Universe. Here we present a model fit for this gravitational-wave peak luminosity of nonprecessing quasicircular BBH systems as a function of the masses and spins of the component black holes, based on numerical relativity (NR) simulations and the hierarchical fitting approach introduced by X. Jiménez-Forteza et al. [Phys. Rev. D 95, 064024 (2017)., 10.1103/PhysRevD.95.064024]. This fit improves over previous results in accuracy and parameter-space coverage and can be used to infer posterior distributions for the peak luminosity of future astrophysical signals like GW150914 and GW151226. The model is calibrated to the ℓ≤6 modes of 378 nonprecessing NR simulations up to mass ratios of 18 and dimensionless spin magnitudes up to 0.995, and includes unequal-spin effects. We also constrain the fit to perturbative numerical results for large mass ratios. Studies of key contributions to the uncertainty in NR peak luminosities, such as (i) mode selection, (ii) finite resolution, (iii) finite extraction radius, and (iv) different methods for converting NR waveforms to luminosity, allow us to use NR simulations from four different codes as a homogeneous calibration set. This study of systematic fits to combined NR and large-mass-ratio data, including higher modes, also paves the way for improved inspiral-merger-ringdown waveform models.

A Numerical Climate Observing Network Design Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef

2003-01-01

This project was concerned with three related questions of an optimal design of a climate observing system: 1. The spatial sampling characteristics required from an ARGO system. 2. The degree to which surface observations from ARGO can be used to calibrate and test satellite remote sensing observations of sea surface salinity (SSS) as it is anticipated now. 3. The more general design of an climate observing system as it is required in the near future for CLIVAR in the Atlantic. An important question in implementing an observing system is that of the sampling density required to observe climate-related variations in the ocean. For that purpose this project was concerned with the sampling requirements for the ARGO float system, but investigated also other elements of a climate observing system. As part of this project we studied the horizontal and vertical sampling characteristics of a global ARGO system which is required to make it fully complementary to altimeter data with the goal to capture climate related variations on large spatial scales (less thanAttachment: 1000 km). We addressed this question in the framework of a numerical model study in the North Atlantic with an 1/6 horizontal resolution. The advantage of a numerical design study is the knowledge of the full model state. Sampled by a synthetic float array, model results will therefore allow to test and improve existing deployment strategies with the goal to make the system as optimal and cost-efficient as possible. Attachment: "Optimal observations for variational data assimilation".

High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2013-12-01

In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

Tight-binding model for materials at mesoscale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tai, Yuan-Yen; Choi, Hongchul; Zhu, Wei

2016-12-21

TBM3 is an open source package for computational simulations of quantum materials at multiple scales in length and time. The project originated to investigate the multiferroic behavior in transition-metal oxide heterostructures. The framework has also been designed to study emergent phemona in other quantum materials like 2-dimensional transition-metal dichalcogenides, graphene, topological insulators, and skyrmion in materials, etc. In the long term, we will enable the package for transport and time-resolved phenomena. TBM3 is currently a C++ based numerical tool package and framework for the design and construction of any kind of lattice structures with multi-orbital and spin degrees of freedom.more » The fortran based portion of the package will be added in the near future. The design of TBM3 is in a highly flexible and reusable framework and the tight-binding parameters can be modeled or informed by DFT calculations. It is currently GPU enabled and feature of CPU enabled MPI will be added in the future.« less

Development of computational methods for heavy lift launch vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, Seokkwan; Ryan, James S.

1993-01-01

The research effort has been focused on the development of an advanced flow solver for complex viscous turbulent flows with shock waves. The three-dimensional Euler and full/thin-layer Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for compressible flows are solved on structured hexahedral grids. The Baldwin-Lomax algebraic turbulence model is used for closure. The space discretization is based on a cell-centered finite-volume method augmented by a variety of numerical dissipation models with optional total variation diminishing limiters. The governing equations are integrated in time by an implicit method based on lower-upper factorization and symmetric Gauss-Seidel relaxation. The algorithm is vectorized on diagonal planes of sweep using two-dimensional indices in three dimensions. A new computer program named CENS3D has been developed for viscous turbulent flows with discontinuities. Details of the code are described in Appendix A and Appendix B. With the developments of the numerical algorithm and dissipation model, the simulation of three-dimensional viscous compressible flows has become more efficient and accurate. The results of the research are expected to yield a direct impact on the design process of future liquid fueled launch systems.

Estimation of State Transition Probabilities: A Neural Network Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hiroshi; Takiyama, Ken; Okada, Masato

2015-12-01

Humans and animals can predict future states on the basis of acquired knowledge. This prediction of the state transition is important for choosing the best action, and the prediction is only possible if the state transition probability has already been learned. However, how our brains learn the state transition probability is unknown. Here, we propose a simple algorithm for estimating the state transition probability by utilizing the state prediction error. We analytically and numerically confirmed that our algorithm is able to learn the probability completely with an appropriate learning rate. Furthermore, our learning rule reproduced experimentally reported psychometric functions and neural activities in the lateral intraparietal area in a decision-making task. Thus, our algorithm might describe the manner in which our brains learn state transition probabilities and predict future states.

Modelling of Lunar Dust and Electrical Field for Future Lunar Surface Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yunlong

Modelling of the lunar dust and electrical field is important to future human and robotic activities on the surface of the moon. Apollo astronauts had witnessed the maintaining of micron- and millimeter sized moon dust up to meters level while walked on the surface of the moon. The characterizations of the moon dust would enhance not only the scientific understanding of the history of the moon but also the future technology development for the surface operations on the moon. It has been proposed that the maintaining and/or settlement of the small-sized dry dust are related to the size and weight of the dust particles, the level of the surface electrical fields on the moon, and the impaction and interaction between lunar regolith and the solar particles. The moon dust distributions and settlements obviously affected the safety of long term operations of future lunar facilities. For the modelling of the lunar dust and the electrical field, we analyzed the imaging of the legs of the moon lander, the cover and the footwear of the space suits, and the envelope of the lunar mobiles, and estimated the size and charges associated with the small moon dust particles, the gravity and charging effects to them along with the lunar surface environment. We also did numerical simulation of the surface electrical fields due to the impaction of the solar winds in several conditions. The results showed that the maintaining of meters height of the micron size of moon dust is well related to the electrical field and the solar angle variations, as expected. These results could be verified and validated through future on site and/or remote sensing measurements and observations of the moon dust and the surface electrical field.

Hardware simulation of fuel cell/gas turbine hybrids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Thomas Paul

Hybrid solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine (SOFC/GT) systems offer high efficiency power generation, but face numerous integration and operability challenges. This dissertation addresses the application of hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) to explore the performance of a solid oxide fuel cell stack and gas turbine when combined into a hybrid system. Specifically, this project entailed developing and demonstrating a methodology for coupling a numerical SOFC subsystem model with a gas turbine that has been modified with supplemental process flow and control paths to mimic a hybrid system. This HILS approach was implemented with the U.S. Department of Energy Hybrid Performance Project (HyPer) located at the National Energy Technology Laboratory. By utilizing HILS the facility provides a cost effective and capable platform for characterizing the response of hybrid systems to dynamic variations in operating conditions. HILS of a hybrid system was accomplished by first interfacing a numerical model with operating gas turbine hardware. The real-time SOFC stack model responds to operating turbine flow conditions in order to predict the level of thermal effluent from the SOFC stack. This simulated level of heating then dynamically sets the turbine's "firing" rate to reflect the stack output heat rate. Second, a high-speed computer system with data acquisition capabilities was integrated with the existing controls and sensors of the turbine facility. In the future, this will allow for the utilization of high-fidelity fuel cell models that infer cell performance parameters while still computing the simulation in real-time. Once the integration of the numeric and the hardware simulation components was completed, HILS experiments were conducted to evaluate hybrid system performance. The testing identified non-intuitive transient responses arising from the large thermal capacitance of the stack that are inherent to hybrid systems. Furthermore, the tests demonstrated the capabilities of HILS as a research tool for investigating the dynamic behavior of SOFC/GT hybrid power generation systems.

Results of the Workshop on Impact Cratering: Bridging the Gap Between Modeling and Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herrick, Robert (Editor); Pierazzo, Elisabetta (Editor)

2003-01-01

On February 7-9,2003, approximately 60 scientists gathered at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas, for a workshop devoted to improving knowledge of the impact cratering process. We (co-conveners Elisabetta Pierazzo and Robert Herrick) both focus research efforts on studying the impact cratering process, but the former specializes in numerical modeling while the latter draws inferences from observations of planetary craters. Significant work has been done in several key areas of impact studies over the past several years, but in many respects there seem to be a disconnect between the groups employing different approaches, in particular modeling versus observations. The goal in convening this workshop was to bring together these disparate groups to have an open dialogue for the purposes of answering outstanding questions about the impact process and setting future research directions. We were successful in getting participation from most of the major research groups studying the impact process. Participants gathered from five continents with research specialties ranging from numerical modeling to field geology, and from small-scale experimentation and geochemical sample analysis to seismology and remote sensing.With the assistance of the scientific advisory committee (Bevan French, Kevin Housen, Bill McKinnon, Jay Melosh, and Mike Zolensky), the workshop was divided into a series of sessions devoted to different aspects of the cratering process. Each session was opened by two invited t a b , one given by a specialist in numerical or experimental modeling approaches, and the other by a specialist in geological, geophysical, or geochemical observations. Shorter invited and contributed talks filled out the sessions, which were then concluded with an open discussion time. All modelers were requested to address the question of what observations would better constrain their models, and all observationists were requested to discuss how their observations can constrain modeling efforts.

Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Mouse Models of Gastric Cancer

PubMed Central

Hayakawa, Yoku; Fox, James G.; Gonda, Tamas; Worthley, Daniel L.; Muthupalani, Sureshkumar; Wang, Timothy C.

2013-01-01

Animal models have greatly enriched our understanding of the molecular mechanisms of numerous types of cancers. Gastric cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide, with a poor prognosis and high incidence of drug-resistance. However, most inbred strains of mice have proven resistant to gastric carcinogenesis. To establish useful models which mimic human gastric cancer phenotypes, investigators have utilized animals infected with Helicobacter species and treated with carcinogens. In addition, by exploiting genetic engineering, a variety of transgenic and knockout mouse models of gastric cancer have emerged, such as INS-GAS mice and TFF1 knockout mice. Investigators have used the combination of carcinogens and gene alteration to accelerate gastric cancer development, but rarely do mouse models show an aggressive and metastatic gastric cancer phenotype that could be relevant to preclinical studies, which may require more specific targeting of gastric progenitor cells. Here, we review current gastric carcinogenesis mouse models and provide our future perspectives on this field. PMID:24216700

Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

Wettability of graphitic-carbon and silicon surfaces: MD modeling and theoretical analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramos-Alvarado, Bladimir; Kumar, Satish; Peterson, G. P.

2015-07-28

The wettability of graphitic carbon and silicon surfaces was numerically and theoretically investigated. A multi-response method has been developed for the analysis of conventional molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of droplets wettability. The contact angle and indicators of the quality of the computations are tracked as a function of the data sets analyzed over time. This method of analysis allows accurate calculations of the contact angle obtained from the MD simulations. Analytical models were also developed for the calculation of the work of adhesion using the mean-field theory, accounting for the interfacial entropy changes. A calibration method is proposed to providemore » better predictions of the respective contact angles under different solid-liquid interaction potentials. Estimations of the binding energy between a water monomer and graphite match those previously reported. In addition, a breakdown in the relationship between the binding energy and the contact angle was observed. The macroscopic contact angles obtained from the MD simulations were found to match those predicted by the mean-field model for graphite under different wettability conditions, as well as the contact angles of Si(100) and Si(111) surfaces. Finally, an assessment of the effect of the Lennard-Jones cutoff radius was conducted to provide guidelines for future comparisons between numerical simulations and analytical models of wettability.« less

Effect of Turbulence Modeling on an Excited Jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Clifford A.; Hixon, Ray

2010-01-01

The flow dynamics in a high-speed jet are dominated by unsteady turbulent flow structures in the plume. Jet excitation seeks to control these flow structures through the natural instabilities present in the initial shear layer of the jet. Understanding and optimizing the excitation input, for jet noise reduction or plume mixing enhancement, requires many trials that may be done experimentally or computationally at a significant cost savings. Numerical simulations, which model various parts of the unsteady dynamics to reduce the computational expense of the simulation, must adequately capture the unsteady flow dynamics in the excited jet for the results are to be used. Four CFD methods are considered for use in an excited jet problem, including two turbulence models with an Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) solver, one Large Eddy Simulation (LES) solver, and one URANS/LES hybrid method. Each method is used to simulate a simplified excited jet and the results are evaluated based on the flow data, computation time, and numerical stability. The knowledge gained about the effect of turbulence modeling and CFD methods from these basic simulations will guide and assist future three-dimensional (3-D) simulations that will be used to understand and optimize a realistic excited jet for a particular application.

The estimation of uniaxial compressive strength conversion factor of trona and interbeds from point load tests and numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, H.; Altinpinar, M.

2017-07-01

The point load (PL) test is generally used for estimation of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of rocks because of its economic advantages and simplicity in testing. If the PL index of a specimen is known, the UCS can be estimated using conversion factors. Several conversion factors have been proposed by various researchers and they are dependent upon the rock type. In the literature, conversion factors on different sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic rocks can be found, but no study exists on trona. In this study, laboratory UCS and field PL tests were carried out on trona and interbeds of volcano-sedimentary rocks. Based on these tests, PL to UCS conversion factors of trona and interbeds are proposed. The tests were modeled numerically using a distinct element method (DEM) software, particle flow code (PFC), in an attempt to guide researchers having various types of modeling problems (excavation, cavern design, hydraulic fracturing, etc.) of the abovementioned rock types. Average PFC parallel bond contact model micro properties for the trona and interbeds were determined within this study so that future researchers can use them to avoid the rigorous PFC calibration procedure. It was observed that PFC overestimates the tensile strength of the rocks by a factor that ranges from 22 to 106.

Risk assessment of consuming agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater: An exposure model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ginneken, Meike; Oron, Gideon

2000-09-01

This study assesses health risks to consumers due to the use of agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. The analysis is based on a definition of an exposure model which takes into account several parameters: (1) the quality of the applied wastewater, (2) the irrigation method, (3) the elapsed times between irrigation, harvest, and product consumption, and (4) the consumers' habits. The exposure model is used for numerical simulation of human consumers' risks using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of the numerical simulation show large deviations, probably caused by uncertainty (impreciseness in quality of input data) and variability due to diversity among populations. There is a 10-orders of magnitude difference in the risk of infection between the different exposure scenarios with the same water quality. This variation indicates the need for setting risk-based criteria for wastewater reclamation rather than single water quality guidelines. Extra data are required to decrease uncertainty in the risk assessment. Future research needs to include definition of acceptable risk criteria, more accurate dose-response modeling, information regarding pathogen survival in treated wastewater, additional data related to the passage of pathogens into and in the plants during irrigation, and information regarding the behavior patterns of the community of human consumers.

Biogenic organic emissions, air quality and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenther, A. B.

2015-12-01

Living organisms produce copious amounts of a diverse array of metabolites including many volatile organic compounds that are released into the atmosphere. These compounds participate in numerous chemical reactions that influence the atmospheric abundance of important air pollutants and short-lived climate forcers including organic aerosol, ozone and methane. The production and release of these organics are strongly influenced by environmental conditions including air pollution, temperature, solar radiation, and water availability and they are highly sensitive to stress and extreme events. As a result, releases of biogenic organics to the atmosphere have an impact on, and are sensitive to, air quality and climate leading to potential feedback couplings. Their role in linking air quality and climate is conceptually clear but an accurate quantitative representation is needed for predictive models. Progress towards this goal will be presented including numerical model development and assessments of the predictive capability of the Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). Recent studies of processes controlling the magnitude and variations in biogenic organic emissions will be described and observations of their impact on atmospheric composition will be shown. Recent advances and priorities for future research will be discussed including laboratory process studies, long-term measurements, multi-scale regional studies, global satellite observations, and the development of a next generation model for simulating land-atmosphere chemical exchange.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Hernandez, Luis; Ozen, Asli; DosSantos, Rodrigo; Getsios, Denis

2016-07-01

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies. We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face. The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100). Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

Modeling and semi-active fuzzy control of magnetorheological elastomer-based isolator for seismic response reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Xuan Bao; Komatsuzaki, Toshihiko; Iwata, Yoshio; Asanuma, Haruhiko

2018-02-01

In this paper, a magnetorheological elastomer (MRE) based isolator was investigated to mitigate excessive vibrations in structures during seismic events. The primary objectives of this research are to propose a numerical model that expresses viscoelastic behaviors of the MRE and predict operation process of the MRE-based isolator for future design of isolator systems for various technical applications. Despite the simplicity in parameter definition in comparison to the conventional models, the proposed model works efficiently in a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes. The model consists of the following components: viscoelasticity of host MRE, magnetic field-induced property, nominal viscosity as well as high stiffness in low excitation frequency that are modeled in analogy with a standard linear solid model (Zener model), a stiffness variable spring, and a smooth Coulomb friction, respectively. Furthermore, a semi-active fuzzy controller was designed to enhance the performance of the isolator in suppressing structural vibrations. The control strategy was built to determine the command applied current. The controller is completely adequate for handling the nonlinearity of the isolator and works independently with the building structure. The efficiency of the MRE-based isolator was evaluated by the responses of the scaled building under seismic excitation. Numerical and experimental results show that the isolator accompanied with a fuzzy controller remarkably reduces the relative displacement and absolute acceleration of the scaled building compared to passive-off and passive-on cases.

Modelling of bio-morphodynamics in braided rivers: applications to the Waitaki river (New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stecca, G.; Zolezzi, G.; Hicks, M.; Measures, R.; Bertoldi, W.

2016-12-01

The planform shape of rivers results from the complex interaction between flow, sediment transport and vegetation processes, and can evolve in time following a change in these controls. The braided planform of the lower Waitaki (New Zealand), for instance, is endangered by the action of artificially-introduced alien vegetation, which spread after the reduction in magnitude of floods following hydropower dam construction. These processes, by favouring the flow concentration into the main channel, would likely promote a shift towards single thread morphology if vegetation was not artificially removed within a central fairway. The purpose of this work is to address the future evolution of these river systems under different management scenarios through two-dimensional numerical modelling. The construction of a suitable model represents a task in itself, since a modelling framework coupling all the relevant processes is not straightforwardly available at present. Our starting point is the GIAMT2D numerical model, solving two-dimensional flow and bedload transport in wet/dry domains, and recently modified by the inclusion of a rule-based bank erosion model. We further develop this model by adding a vegetation module, which accounts in a simplified manner for time-evolving biomass density, and tweaks the local flow roughness, critical shear stress for sediment transport and bank erodibility accordingly. We plan to apply the model to address the decadal-scale evolution of one reach in the Waitaki river, comparing different management scenarios for vegetation control.

Metal Ion Modeling Using Classical Mechanics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Metal ions play significant roles in numerous fields including chemistry, geochemistry, biochemistry, and materials science. With computational tools increasingly becoming important in chemical research, methods have emerged to effectively face the challenge of modeling metal ions in the gas, aqueous, and solid phases. Herein, we review both quantum and classical modeling strategies for metal ion-containing systems that have been developed over the past few decades. This Review focuses on classical metal ion modeling based on unpolarized models (including the nonbonded, bonded, cationic dummy atom, and combined models), polarizable models (e.g., the fluctuating charge, Drude oscillator, and the induced dipole models), the angular overlap model, and valence bond-based models. Quantum mechanical studies of metal ion-containing systems at the semiempirical, ab initio, and density functional levels of theory are reviewed as well with a particular focus on how these methods inform classical modeling efforts. Finally, conclusions and future prospects and directions are offered that will further enhance the classical modeling of metal ion-containing systems. PMID:28045509

Impact of air temperature on physically-based maximum precipitation estimation through change in moisture holding capacity of air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, K.; Ohara, N.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. Q.; Anderson, M. L.

2018-01-01

Impact of air temperature on the Maximum Precipitation (MP) estimation through change in moisture holding capacity of air was investigated. A series of previous studies have estimated the MP of 72-h basin-average precipitation over the American River watershed (ARW) in Northern California by means of the Maximum Precipitation (MP) estimation approach, which utilizes a physically-based regional atmospheric model. For the MP estimation, they have selected 61 severe storm events for the ARW, and have maximized them by means of the atmospheric boundary condition shifting (ABCS) and relative humidity maximization (RHM) methods. This study conducted two types of numerical experiments in addition to the MP estimation by the previous studies. First, the air temperature on the entire lateral boundaries of the outer model domain was increased uniformly by 0.0-8.0 °C with 0.5 °C increments for the two severest maximized historical storm events in addition to application of the ABCS + RHM method to investigate the sensitivity of the basin-average precipitation over the ARW to air temperature rise. In this investigation, a monotonous increase was found in the maximum 72-h basin-average precipitation over the ARW with air temperature rise for both of the storm events. The second numerical experiment used specific amounts of air temperature rise that is assumed to happen under future climate change conditions. Air temperature was increased by those specified amounts uniformly on the entire lateral boundaries in addition to application of the ABCS + RHM method to investigate the impact of air temperature on the MP estimate over the ARW under changing climate. The results in the second numerical experiment show that temperature increases in the future climate may amplify the MP estimate over the ARW. The MP estimate may increase by 14.6% in the middle of the 21st century and by 27.3% in the end of the 21st century compared to the historical period.

Calibration and validation of a small-scale urban surface water flood event using crowdsourced images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Pattison, Ian

2017-04-01

Surface water flooding occurs when intense precipitation events overwhelm the drainage capacity of an area and excess overland flow is unable to infiltrate into the ground or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels, such as river channels, manholes or SuDS. In the UK, over 3 million properties are at risk from surface water flooding alone, accounting for approximately one third of the UK's flood risk. The risk of surface water flooding is projected to increase due to several factors, including population increases, land-use alterations and future climatic changes in precipitation resulting in an increased magnitude and frequency of intense precipitation events. Numerical inundation modelling is a well-established method of investigating surface water flood risk, allowing the researcher to gain a detailed understanding of the depth, velocity, discharge and extent of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios over a wide range of spatial scales. However, numerical models require calibration of key hydrological and hydraulic parameters (e.g. infiltration, evapotranspiration, drainage rate, roughness) to ensure model outputs adequately represent the flood event being studied. Furthermore, validation data such as crowdsourced images or spatially-referenced flood depth collected during a flood event may provide a useful validation of inundation depth and extent for actual flood events. In this study, a simplified two-dimensional inertial based flood inundation model requiring minimal pre-processing of data (FloodMap-HydroInundation) was used to model a short-duration, intense rainfall event (27.8 mm in 15 minutes) that occurred over the Loughborough University campus on the 28th June 2012. High resolution (1m horizontal, +/- 15cm vertical) DEM data, rasterised Ordnance Survey topographic structures data and precipitation data recorded at the University weather station were used to conduct numerical modelling over the small (< 2km2), contained urban catchment. To validate model outputs and allow a reconstruction of spatially referenced flood depth and extent during the flood event, crowdsourced images were obtained from social media (Twitter) and from individuals present during the flood event via the University noticeboards, as well as using dGPS flood depth data collected at one of the worst affected areas. An investigation into the sensitivity of key model parameters suggests that the numerical model code is highly sensitivity to changes within the recommended range of roughness and infiltration values, as well as changes in DEM and building mesh resolutions, but less sensitive to changes in evapotranspiration and drainage capacity parameters. The study also demonstrates the potential of using crowdsourced images to validate urban surface water flood models and inform parameterisation when calibrating numerical inundation models.

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

2018-01-01

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

Branching-ratio approximation for the self-exciting Hawkes process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, Stephen J.; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2014-12-01

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics that are readily obtained from empirical data. The method we propose greatly simplifies the estimation of the Hawkes branching ratio, recently proposed as a proxy for market endogeneity and formerly estimated using numerical likelihood maximization. We employ our method to support recent theoretical and experimental results indicating that the best fitting Hawkes model to describe S&P futures price changes is in fact critical (now and in the recent past) in light of the long memory of financial market activity.

NYU3T: teaching, technology, teamwork: a model for interprofessional education scalability and sustainability.

PubMed

Djukic, Maja; Fulmer, Terry; Adams, Jennifer G; Lee, Sabrina; Triola, Marc M

2012-09-01

Interprofessional education is a critical precursor to effective teamwork and the collaboration of health care professionals in clinical settings. Numerous barriers have been identified that preclude scalable and sustainable interprofessional education (IPE) efforts. This article describes NYU3T: Teaching, Technology, Teamwork, a model that uses novel technologies such as Web-based learning, virtual patients, and high-fidelity simulation to overcome some of the common barriers and drive implementation of evidence-based teamwork curricula. It outlines the program's curricular components, implementation strategy, evaluation methods, and lessons learned from the first year of delivery and describes implications for future large-scale IPE initiatives. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The QuakeSim Project: Numerical Simulations for Active Tectonic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnellan, Andrea; Parker, Jay; Lyzenga, Greg; Granat, Robert; Fox, Geoffrey; Pierce, Marlon; Rundle, John; McLeod, Dennis; Grant, Lisa; Tullis, Terry

2004-01-01

In order to develop a solid earth science framework for understanding and studying of active tectonic and earthquake processes, this task develops simulation and analysis tools to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We develop clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to the simulations. these are adapted to high-performance computers because the solid earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes.

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Xie, Jun; Ge, Qian

2017-02-01

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7-10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

A domain-specific compiler for a parallel multiresolution adaptive numerical simulation environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rajbhandari, Samyam; Kim, Jinsung; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

This paper describes the design and implementation of a layered domain-specific compiler to support MADNESS---Multiresolution ADaptive Numerical Environment for Scientific Simulation. MADNESS is a high-level software environment for the solution of integral and differential equations in many dimensions, using adaptive and fast harmonic analysis methods with guaranteed precision. MADNESS uses k-d trees to represent spatial functions and implements operators like addition, multiplication, differentiation, and integration on the numerical representation of functions. The MADNESS runtime system provides global namespace support and a task-based execution model including futures. MADNESS is currently deployed on massively parallel supercomputers and has enabled many science advances.more » Due to the highly irregular and statically unpredictable structure of the k-d trees representing the spatial functions encountered in MADNESS applications, only purely runtime approaches to optimization have previously been implemented in the MADNESS framework. This paper describes a layered domain-specific compiler developed to address some performance bottlenecks in MADNESS. The newly developed static compile-time optimizations, in conjunction with the MADNESS runtime support, enable significant performance improvement for the MADNESS framework.« less

The prediction of the hydrodynamic performance of tidal current turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Y Xiao, B.; Zhou, L. J.; Xiao, Y. X.; Wang, Z. W.

2013-12-01

Nowadays tidal current energy is considered to be one of the most promising alternative green energy resources and tidal current turbines are used for power generation. Prediction of the open water performance around tidal turbines is important for the reason that it can give some advice on installation and array of tidal current turbines. This paper presents numerical computations of tidal current turbines by using a numerical model which is constructed to simulate an isolated turbine. This paper aims at studying the installation of marine current turbine of which the hydro-environmental impacts influence by means of numerical simulation. Such impacts include free-stream velocity magnitude, seabed and inflow direction of velocity. The results of the open water performance prediction show that the power output and efficiency of marine current turbine varies from different marine environments. The velocity distribution should be clearly and the suitable unit installation depth and direction be clearly chosen, which can ensure the most effective strategy for energy capture before installing the marine current turbine. The findings of this paper are expected to be beneficial in developing tidal current turbines and array in the future.

High-NA EUV lithography enabling Moore's law in the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Schoot, Jan; Troost, Kars; Bornebroek, Frank; van Ballegoij, Rob; Lok, Sjoerd; Krabbendam, Peter; Stoeldraijer, Judon; Loopstra, Erik; Benschop, Jos P.; Finders, Jo; Meiling, Hans; van Setten, Eelco; Kneer, Bernhard; Kuerz, Peter; Kaiser, Winfried; Heil, Tilmann; Migura, Sascha; Neumann, Jens Timo

2017-10-01

While EUV systems equipped with a 0.33 Numerical Aperture lenses are readying to start volume manufacturing, ASML and Zeiss are ramping up their activities on a EUV exposure tool with Numerical Aperture of 0.55. The purpose of this scanner, targeting an ultimate resolution of 8nm, is to extend Moore's law throughout the next decade. A novel, anamorphic lens design, capable of providing the required Numerical Aperture has been investigated; This lens will be paired with new, faster stages and more accurate sensors enabling Moore's law economical requirements, as well as the tight focus and overlay control needed for future process nodes. The tighter focus and overlay control budgets, as well as the anamorphic optics, will drive innovations in the imaging and OPC modelling. Furthermore, advances in resist and mask technology will be required to image lithography features with less than 10nm resolution. This paper presents an overview of the target specifications, key technology innovations and imaging simulations demonstrating the advantages as compared to 0.33NA and showing the capabilities of the next generation EUV systems.

Empirical and numerical investigation of mass movements - data fusion and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmalz, Thilo; Eichhorn, Andreas; Buhl, Volker; Tinkhof, Kurt Mair Am; Preh, Alexander; Tentschert, Ewald-Hans; Zangerl, Christian

2010-05-01

Increasing settlement activities of people in mountanious regions and the appearance of extreme climatic conditions motivate the investigation of landslides. Within the last few years a significant rising of disastrous slides could be registered which generated a broad public interest and the request for security measures. The FWF (Austrian Science Fund) funded project ‘KASIP' (Knowledge-based Alarm System with Identified Deformation Predictor) deals with the development of a new type of alarm system based on calibrated numerical slope models for the realistic calculation of failure scenarios. In KASIP, calibration is the optimal adaptation of a numerical model to available monitoring data by least-squares techniques (e.g. adaptive Kalman-filtering). Adaptation means the determination of a priori uncertain physical parameters like the strength of the geological structure. The object of our studies in KASIP is the landslide ‘Steinlehnen' near Innsbruck (Northern Tyrol, Austria). The first part of the presentation is focussed on the determination of geometrical surface-information. This also includes the description of the monitoring system for the collection of the displacement data and filter approaches for the estimation of the slopes kinematic behaviour. The necessity of continous monitoring and the effect of data gaps for reliable filter results and the prediction of the future state is discussed. The second part of the presentation is more focussed on the numerical modelling of the slope by FD- (Finite Difference-) methods and the development of the adaptive Kalman-filter. The realisation of the numerical slope model is developed by FLAC3D (software company HCItasca Ltd.). The model contains different geomechanical approaches (like Mohr-Coulomb) and enables the calculation of great deformations and the failure of the slope. Stability parameters (like the factor-of-safety FS) allow the evaluation of the current state of the slope. Until now, the adaptation of relevant material parameters is often performed by trial and error methods. This common method shall be improved by adaptive Kalman-filtering methods. In contrast to trial and error, Kalman-filtering also considers stochastical information of the input data. Especially the estimation of strength parameters (cohesion c, angle of internal friction phi) in a dynamic consideration of the slope is discussed. Problems with conditioning and numerical stability of the filter matrices, memory overflow and computing time are outlined. It is shown that the Kalman-filter is in principle suitable for an semi-automated adaptation process and obtains realistic values for the unknown material parameters.

Early Universe synthesis of asymmetric dark matter nuggets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gresham, Moira I.; Lou, Hou Keong; Zurek, Kathryn M.

We compute the mass function of bound states of asymmetric dark matter - nuggets - synthesized in the early Universe. We apply our results for the nugget density and binding energy computed from a nuclear model to obtain analytic estimates of the typical nugget size exiting synthesis. We numerically solve the Boltzmann equation for synthesis including two-to-two fusion reactions, estimating the impact of bottlenecks on the mass function exiting synthesis. These results provide the basis for studying the late Universe cosmology of nuggets in a future companion paper.

Development of Uniform Microstructures in Immiscible Alloys by Processing in a Low-Gravity Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grugel, R. N.; Brush, L. N.

1996-01-01

Highly segregated macrostructures tend to develop during processing of hypermonotectic alloys because of the density difference existing between the two liquid phases. The approximately 4.6 seconds of low-gravity provided by Marshall Space Flight Center's 105 meter drop tube was utilized to minimize density-driven separation and promote uniform microstructures in hypermonotectic Ag-Ni and Ag-Mn alloys. For the Ag-Ni alloys a numerical model was developed to track heat flow and solidification of the bi-metal drop configuration. Results, potential applications, and future work are presented.

Satellite Orbit Under Influence of a Drag - Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinović, M. M.; Šegan, S. D.

2017-12-01

The report studies some changes in orbital elements of the artificial satellites of Earth under influence of atmospheric drag. In order to develop possibilities of applying the results in many future cases, an analytical interpretation of the orbital element perturbations is given via useful, but very long expressions. The development is based on the TD88 air density model, recently upgraded with some additional terms. Some expressions and formulae were developed by the computer algebra system Mathematica and tested in some hypothetical cases. The results have good agreement with iterative (numerical) approach.

Early Universe synthesis of asymmetric dark matter nuggets

DOE PAGES

Gresham, Moira I.; Lou, Hou Keong; Zurek, Kathryn M.

2018-02-12

We compute the mass function of bound states of asymmetric dark matter - nuggets - synthesized in the early Universe. We apply our results for the nugget density and binding energy computed from a nuclear model to obtain analytic estimates of the typical nugget size exiting synthesis. We numerically solve the Boltzmann equation for synthesis including two-to-two fusion reactions, estimating the impact of bottlenecks on the mass function exiting synthesis. These results provide the basis for studying the late Universe cosmology of nuggets in a future companion paper.

Two-dimensional simulation of quantum reflection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galiffi, Emanuele; Sünderhauf, Christoph; DeKieviet, Maarten; Wimberger, Sandro

2017-05-01

A propagation method for the scattering of a quantum wave packet from a potential surface is presented. It is used to model the quantum reflection of single atoms from a corrugated (metallic) surface. Our numerical procedure works well in two spatial dimensions requiring only reasonable amounts of memory and computing time. The effects of the surface corrugation on the reflectivity are investigated via simulations with a paradigm potential. These indicate that our approach should allow for future tests of realistic, effective potentials obtained from theory in a quantitative comparison to experimental data.

DISCOS- Current Status and Future Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flohrer, T.; Lemmens, S.; Bastida Virgili, B.; Krag, H.; Klinkrad, H.; Parrilla, E.; Sanchez, N.; Oliveira, J.; Pina, F.

2013-08-01

We present ESA's Database and Information System Characterizing Objects in Space (DISCOS). DISCOS not only plays an essential role in the collision avoidance and re-entry prediction services provided by ESA's Space Debris Office, it is also providing input to numerous and very differently scoped engineering activities, within ESA and throughout industry. We introduce the central functionalities of DISCOS, present the available reporting capabilities, and describe selected data modelling features. Finally, we revisit the developments of the recent years and take a sneak preview of the on-going replacement of DISCOS web front-end.

Early Universe synthesis of asymmetric dark matter nuggets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gresham, Moira I.; Lou, Hou Keong; Zurek, Kathryn M.

2018-02-01

We compute the mass function of bound states of asymmetric dark matter—nuggets—synthesized in the early Universe. We apply our results for the nugget density and binding energy computed from a nuclear model to obtain analytic estimates of the typical nugget size exiting synthesis. We numerically solve the Boltzmann equation for synthesis including two-to-two fusion reactions, estimating the impact of bottlenecks on the mass function exiting synthesis. These results provide the basis for studying the late Universe cosmology of nuggets in a future companion paper.

Research Progress on Dark Matter Model Based on Weakly Interacting Massive Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yu; Lin, Wen-bin

2017-04-01

The cosmological model of cold dark matter (CDM) with the dark energy and a scale-invariant adiabatic primordial power spectrum has been considered as the standard cosmological model, i.e. the ΛCDM model. Weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) become a prominent candidate for the CDM. Many models extended from the standard model can provide the WIMPs naturally. The standard calculations of relic abundance of dark matter show that the WIMPs are well in agreement with the astronomical observation of ΩDM h2 ≈0.11. The WIMPs have a relatively large mass, and a relatively slow velocity, so they are easy to aggregate into clusters, and the results of numerical simulations based on the WIMPs agree well with the observational results of cosmic large-scale structures. In the aspect of experiments, the present accelerator or non-accelerator direct/indirect detections are mostly designed for the WIMPs. Thus, a wide attention has been paid to the CDM model based on the WIMPs. However, the ΛCDM model has a serious problem for explaining the small-scale structures under one Mpc. Different dark matter models have been proposed to alleviate the small-scale problem. However, so far there is no strong evidence enough to exclude the CDM model. We plan to introduce the research progress of the dark matter model based on the WIMPs, such as the WIMPs miracle, numerical simulation, small-scale problem, and the direct/indirect detection, to analyze the criterion for discriminating the ;cold;, ;hot;, and ;warm; dark matter, and present the future prospects for the study in this field.

Simulations of inspiraling and merging double neutron stars using the Spectral Einstein Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, Roland; Ott, Christian D.; Szilagyi, Bela; Kaplan, Jeffrey D.; Lippuner, Jonas; Scheel, Mark A.; Barkett, Kevin; Muhlberger, Curran D.; Dietrich, Tim; Duez, Matthew D.; Foucart, Francois; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Teukolsky, Saul A.

2016-06-01

We present results on the inspiral, merger, and postmerger evolution of a neutron star-neutron star (NSNS) system. Our results are obtained using the hybrid pseudospectral-finite volume Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC). To test our numerical methods, we evolve an equal-mass system for ≈22 orbits before merger. This waveform is the longest waveform obtained from fully general-relativistic simulations for NSNSs to date. Such long (and accurate) numerical waveforms are required to further improve semianalytical models used in gravitational wave data analysis, for example, the effective one body models. We discuss in detail the improvements to SpEC's ability to simulate NSNS mergers, in particular mesh refined grids to better resolve the merger and postmerger phases. We provide a set of consistency checks and compare our results to NSNS merger simulations with the independent bam code. We find agreement between them, which increases confidence in results obtained with either code. This work paves the way for future studies using long waveforms and more complex microphysical descriptions of neutron star matter in SpEC.

Sediment transport drives tidewater glacier periodicity.

PubMed

Brinkerhoff, Douglas; Truffer, Martin; Aschwanden, Andy

2017-07-21

Most of Earth's glaciers are retreating, but some tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures and contrary to their neighbors. This can be explained by the coupling of ice and sediment dynamics: a shoal forms at the glacier terminus, reducing ice discharge and causing advance towards an unstable configuration followed by abrupt retreat, in a process known as the tidewater glacier cycle. Here we use a numerical model calibrated with observations to show that interactions between ice flow, glacial erosion, and sediment transport drive these cycles, which occur independent of climate variations. Water availability controls cycle period and amplitude, and enhanced melt from future warming could trigger advance even in glaciers that are steady or retreating, complicating interpretations of glacier response to climate change. The resulting shifts in sediment and meltwater delivery from changes in glacier configuration may impact interpretations of marine sediments, fjord geochemistry, and marine ecosystems.The reason some of the Earth's tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures is not entirely clear. Here, using a numerical model that simulates both ice and sediment dynamics, the authors show that internal dynamics drive glacier variability independent of climate.

A radiation and energy budget algorithm for forest canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tunick, A.

2006-01-01

Previously, it was shown that a one-dimensional, physics-based (conservation-law) computer model can provide a useful mathematical representation of the wind flow, temperatures, and turbulence inside and above a uniform forest stand. A key element of this calculation was a radiation and energy budget algorithm (implemented to predict the heat source). However, to keep the earlier publication brief, a full description of the radiation and energy budget algorithm was not given. Hence, this paper presents our equation set for calculating the incoming total radiation at the canopy top as well as the transmission, reflection, absorption, and emission of the solar flux through a forest stand. In addition, example model output is presented from three interesting numerical experiments, which were conducted to simulate the canopy microclimate for a forest stand that borders the Blossom Point Field Test Facility (located near La Plata, Maryland along the Potomac River). It is anticipated that the current numerical study will be useful to researchers and experimental planners who will be collecting acoustic and meteorological data at the Blossom Point Facility in the near future.

The thermochemical structure and evolution of Earth's mantle: constraints and numerical models.

PubMed

Tackley, Paul J; Xie, Shunxing

2002-11-15

Geochemical observations place several constraints on geophysical processes in the mantle, including a requirement to maintain several distinct reservoirs. Geophysical constraints limit plausible physical locations of these reservoirs to a thin basal layer, isolated deep 'piles' of material under large-scale mantle upwellings, high-viscosity blobs/plums or thin strips throughout the mantle, or some combination of these. A numerical model capable of simulating the thermochemical evolution of the mantle is introduced. Preliminary simulations are more differentiated than Earth but display some of the proposed thermochemical processes, including the generation of a high-mu mantle reservoir by recycling of crust, and the generation of a high-(3)He/(4)He reservoir by recycling of residuum, although the resulting high-(3)He/(4)He material tends to aggregate near the top, where mid-ocean-ridge melting should sample it. If primitive material exists as a dense basal layer, it must be much denser than subducted crust in order to retain its primitive (e.g. high-(3)He) signature. Much progress is expected in the near future.

Numerical modeling of gravel bed river response to meander straightening: The coupling between the evolution of bed pavement and long profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talbot, Tracey; Lapointe, Michel

2002-06-01

Artificial meander straightening (rectification) was conducted in the early 1960s along the Sainte-Marguerite River, Canada, in order to facilitate highway construction along the valley. Previous studies [Talbot and Lapointe, 2002] confirm that vertical reprofiling, coupled with pavement coarsening in the degrading reach, were the main responses counteracting the disequilibrium in gravel transport rates triggered at rectification of this system. Numerical simulations, using SEDROUT2.0, a one-dimensional hydraulic and sediment transport model, and validated against the observed channel response, show the important role played by an advancing wave of pavement coarsening down the rectified reach in modulating the bed degradation response. Simulations extending into the future reveal an asymptotically slowing approach to equilibrium in the middle of the 21st century, with a response half-time of the order of 10 years. In near-threshold gravel bed systems like the Sainte-Marguerite River, pavement coarsening after rectification buffers the system against extreme degradation. Most significantly for watershed management, this also appears to severely limit the extent of propagation of degradation upstream of the rectification.

Coupled Finite Volume and Finite Element Method Analysis of a Complex Large-Span Roof Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafran, J.; Juszczyk, K.; Kamiński, M.

2017-12-01

The main goal of this paper is to present coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and structural analysis for the precise determination of wind impact on internal forces and deformations of structural elements of a longspan roof structure. The Finite Volume Method (FVM) serves for a solution of the fluid flow problem to model the air flow around the structure, whose results are applied in turn as the boundary tractions in the Finite Element Method problem structural solution for the linear elastostatics with small deformations. The first part is carried out with the use of ANSYS 15.0 computer system, whereas the FEM system Robot supports stress analysis in particular roof members. A comparison of the wind pressure distribution throughout the roof surface shows some differences with respect to that available in the engineering designing codes like Eurocode, which deserves separate further numerical studies. Coupling of these two separate numerical techniques appears to be promising in view of future computational models of stochastic nature in large scale structural systems due to the stochastic perturbation method.

Elucidating the role of vegetation in the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides: Insights from an extreme rainfall event in the Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2016-01-01

More than 1100 debris flows were mobilized from shallow landslides during a rainstorm from 9 to 13 September 2013 in the Colorado Front Range, with the vast majority initiating on sparsely vegetated, south facing terrain. To investigate the physical processes responsible for the observed aspect control, we made measurements of soil properties on a densely forested north facing hillslope and a grassland-dominated south facing hillslope in the Colorado Front Range and performed numerical modeling of transient changes in soil pore water pressure throughout the rainstorm. Using the numerical model, we quantitatively assessed interactions among vegetation, rainfall interception, subsurface hydrology, and slope stability. Results suggest that apparent cohesion supplied by roots was responsible for the observed connection between debris flow initiation and slope aspect. Results suggest that future climate-driven modifications to forest structure could substantially influence landslide hazards throughout the Front Range and similar water-limited environments where vegetation communities may be more susceptible to small variations in climate.

Deployment, Foam Rigidization, and Structural Characterization of Inflatable Thin-Film Booms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnell, Andrew R.; Leigh, Larry M., Jr.; Tinker, Michael L.; McConnaughey, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Detailed investigation of the construction, packaging/deployment, foam rigidization, and structural characterization of polyimide film inflatable booms is described. These structures have considerable potential for use in space with solar concentrators, solar sails, space power systems including solar arrays, and other future missions. Numerous thin-film booms or struts were successfully constructed, inflated, injected with foam, and rigidized. Both solid-section and annular test articles were fabricated, using Kapton polyimide film, various adhesives, Styrofoam end plugs, and polyurethane pressurized foam. Numerous inflation/deployment experiments were conducted and compared to computer simulations using the MSC/DYTRAN code. Finite element models were developed for several foam-rigidized struts and compared to model test results. Several problems encountered in the construction, deployment, and foam injection/rigidization process are described. Areas of difficulty included inadequate adhesive strength, cracking of the film arid leakage, excessive bending of the structure during deployment, problems with foam distribution and curing properties, and control of foam leakage following injection into the structure. Many of these problems were overcome in the course of the research.

Analysis on the electromagnetic scattering properties of crops at multi-band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Wu, Zhensen; Liu, Xiaoyi

2014-12-01

The vector radiative transfer (VRT) theory for active microwave remote sensing and Rayleigh-Gans approximation (GRG) are applied in the study, and an iterative algorithm is used to solve the RT equations, thus we obtain the zeroorder and first-order equation for numerical results. The Michigan Microwave Canopy Scattering (MIMICS) model is simplified to adapt to the crop model, by analyzing body-surface bistatic scattering and backscattering properties between a layer of soybean or wheat consisting of stems and leaves and different underlying soil surface at multi-band (i.e. P, L, S, X, Ku-band), we obtain microwave scattering mechanisms of crop components and the effect of underlying ground on total crop scattering. Stem and leaf are regard as a needle and a circular disk, respectively. The final results are compared with some literature data to verify our calculating method, numerical results show multi-band crop microwave scattering properties differ from scattering angle, azimuth angle and moisture of vegetation and soil, which offer the part needed information for the design of future bistatic radar systems for crop sensing applications.

Nuclear masses far from stability: the interplay of theory and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

1985-01-01

Mass models seek, by a variety of theoretical approaches, to reproduce the measured mass surface and to predict unmeasured masses beyond it. Subsequent measurements of these predicted nuclear masses permit an assessment of the quality of the mass predictions from the various models. Since the last comprehensive revision of the mass predictions (in the mid-to-late 1970's) over 300 new masses have been reported. Global analyses of these data have been performed by several numerical and graphical methods. These have identified both the strengths and weaknesses of the models. In some cases failures in individual models are distinctly apparent when themore » new mass data are plotted as functions of one or more selected physical parameters. Several examples will be given. Future theoretical efforts will also be discussed.« less

Macroscopic Modeling of a One-Dimensional Electrochemical Cell using the Poisson-Nernst-Planck Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, David

This thesis presents the one-dimensional equations, numerical method and simulations of a model to characterize the dynamical operation of an electrochemical cell. This model extends the current state-of-the art in that it accounts, in a primitive way, for the physics of the electrolyte/electrode interface and incorporates diffuse-charge dynamics, temperature coupling, surface coverage, and polarization phenomena. The one-dimensional equations account for a system with one or two mobile ions of opposite charge, and the electrode reaction we consider (when one is needed) is a one-electron electrodeposition reaction. Though the modeled system is far from representing a realistic electrochemical device, our results show a range of dynamics and behaviors which have not been observed previously, and explore the numerical challenges required when adding more complexity to a model. Furthermore, the basic transport equations (which are developed in three spatial dimensions) can in future accomodate the inclusion of additional physics, and coupling to more complex boundary conditions that incorporate two-dimensional surface phenomena and multi-rate reactions. In the model, the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations are used to model diffusion and electromigration in an electrolyte, and the generalized Frumkin-Butler-Volmer equation is used to model reaction kinetics at electrodes. An energy balance equation is derived and coupled to the diffusion-migration equation. The model also includes dielectric polarization effects by introducing different values of the dielectric permittivity in different regions of the bulk, as well as accounting for surface coverage effects due to adsorption, and finite size "crowding", or steric effects. Advection effects are not modeled but could in future be incorporated. In order to solve the coupled PDE's, we use a variable step size second order scheme in time and finite differencing in space. Numerical tests are performed on a simplified system and the scheme's stability and convergence properties are discussed. While evaluating different methods for discretizing the coupled flux boundary condition, we discover a thresholding behaviour in the adaptive time stepper, and perform additional tests to investigate it. Finally, a method based on ghost points is chosen for its favorable numerical properties compared to the alternatives. With this method, we are able to run simulations with a large range of parameters, including any value of the nondimensionalized Debye length epsilon. The numerical code is first used to run simulations to explore the effects of polarization, surface coverage, and temperature. The code is also used to perform frequency sweeps of input signals in order to mimic impedance spectroscopy experiments. Finally, in Chapter 5, we use our model to apply ramped voltages to electrochemical systems, and show theoretical and simulated current-voltage curves for liquid and solid thin films, cells with blocking (polarized) electrodes, and electrolytes with background charge. Linear sweep and cyclic voltammetry techniques are important tools for electrochemists and have a variety of applications in engineering. Voltammetry has classically been treated with the Randles-Sevcik equation, which assumes an electroneutral supported electrolyte. No general theory of linear-sweep voltammetry is available, however, for unsupported electrolytes and for other situations where diffuse charge effects play a role. We show theoretical and simulated current-voltage curves for liquid and solid thin films, cells with blocking electrodes, and membranes with fixed background charge. The analysis focuses on the coupling of Faradaic reactions and diffuse charge dynamics, but capacitive charging of the double layers is also studied, for early time transients at reactive electrodes and for non-reactive blocking electrodes. The final chapter highlights the role of diffuse charge in the context of voltammetry, and illustrates which regimes can be approximated using simple analytical expressions and which require more careful consideration.

Computational fluid model incorporating liver metabolic activities in perfusion bioreactor.

PubMed

Hsu, Myat Noe; Tan, Guo-Dong Sean; Tania, Marshella; Birgersson, Erik; Leo, Hwa Liang

2014-05-01

The importance of in vitro hepatotoxicity testing during early stages of drug development in the pharmaceutical industry demands effective bioreactor models with optimized conditions. While perfusion bioreactors have been proven to enhance mass transfer and liver specific functions over a long period of culture, the flow-induced shear stress has less desirable effects on the hepatocytes liver-specific functions. In this paper, a two-dimensional human liver hepatocellular carcinoma (HepG2) cell culture flow model, under a specified flow rate of 0.03 mL/min, was investigated. Besides computing the distribution of shear stresses acting on the surface of the cell culture, our numerical model also investigated the cell culture metabolic functions such as the oxygen consumption, glucose consumption, glutamine consumption, and ammonia production to provide a fuller analysis of the interaction among the various metabolites within the cell culture. The computed albumin production of our 2D flow model was verified by the experimental HepG2 culture results obtained over 3 days of culture. The results showed good agreement between our experimental data and numerical predictions with corresponding cumulative albumin production of 2.9 × 10(-5) and 3.0 × 10(-5)  mol/m(3) , respectively. The results are of importance in making rational design choices for development of future bioreactors with more complex geometries. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Numerical human models for accident research and safety - potentials and limitations.

PubMed

Praxl, Norbert; Adamec, Jiri; Muggenthaler, Holger; von Merten, Katja

2008-01-01

The method of numerical simulation is frequently used in the area of automotive safety. Recently, numerical models of the human body have been developed for the numerical simulation of occupants. Different approaches in modelling the human body have been used: the finite-element and the multibody technique. Numerical human models representing the two modelling approaches are introduced and the potentials and limitations of these models are discussed.

Temperature Distribution and Thermal Performance of an Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, Sayantan

2017-04-01

Energy conservation and storage has become very crucial to make use of excess energy during times of future demand. Excess thermal energy can be captured and stored in aquifers and this technique is termed as Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES). Storing seasonal thermal energy in water by injecting it into subsurface and extracting in time of demand is the principle of an ATES system. Using ATES systems leads to energy savings, reduces the dependency on fossil fuels and thus leads to reduction in greenhouse gas emission. This study numerically models an ATES system to store seasonal thermal energy and evaluates the performance of it. A 3D thermo-hydrogeological numerical model for a confined ATES system is presented in this study. The model includes heat transport processes of advection, conduction and heat loss to confining rock media. The model also takes into account regional groundwater flow in the aquifer, geothermal gradient and anisotropy in the aquifer. Results show that thermal injection into the aquifer results in the generation of a thermal-front which grows in size with time. Premature thermal-breakthrough causes thermal interference in the system when the thermal-front reaches the production well and consequences in the fall of system performance and hence should be avoided. This study models the transient temperature distribution in the aquifer for different flow and geological conditions. This may be effectively used in designing an efficient ATES project by ensuring safety from thermal-breakthrough while catering to the energy demand. Based on the model results a safe well spacing is proposed. The thermal energy discharged by the system is determined and strategy to avoid the premature thermal-breakthrough in critical cases is discussed. The present numerical model is applied to simulate an experimental field study which is found to approximate the field results quite well.

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

2017-02-01

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

Numerical Hydrodynamics in Special Relativity.

PubMed

Martí, J M; Müller, E

1999-01-01

This review is concerned with a discussion of numerical methods for the solution of the equations of special relativistic hydrodynamics (SRHD). Particular emphasis is put on a comprehensive review of the application of high-resolution shock-capturing methods in SRHD. Results obtained with different numerical SRHD methods are compared, and two astrophysical applications of SRHD flows are discussed. An evaluation of the various numerical methods is given and future developments are analyzed. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.12942/lrr-1999-3.

Animal models of aging research: implications for human aging and age-related diseases.

PubMed

Mitchell, Sarah J; Scheibye-Knudsen, Morten; Longo, Dan L; de Cabo, Rafael

2015-01-01

Aging is characterized by an increasing morbidity and functional decline that eventually results in the death of an organism. Aging is the largest risk factor for numerous human diseases, and understanding the aging process may thereby facilitate the development of new treatments for age-associated diseases. The use of humans in aging research is complicated by many factors, including ethical issues; environmental and social factors; and perhaps most importantly, their long natural life span. Although cellular models of human disease provide valuable mechanistic information, they are limited in that they may not replicate the in vivo biology. Almost all organisms age, and thus animal models can be useful for studying aging. Herein, we review some of the major models currently used in aging research and discuss their benefits and pitfalls, including interventions known to extend life span and health span. Finally, we conclude by discussing the future of animal models in aging research.

Sensitivity Analysis of earth and environmental models: a systematic review to guide scientific advancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagener, Thorsten; Pianosi, Francesca

2016-04-01

Sensitivity Analysis (SA) investigates how the variation in the output of a numerical model can be attributed to variations of its input factors. SA is increasingly being used in earth and environmental modelling for a variety of purposes, including uncertainty assessment, model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, dominant control analysis and robust decision-making. Here we provide some practical advice regarding best practice in SA and discuss important open questions based on a detailed recent review of the existing body of work in SA. Open questions relate to the consideration of input factor interactions, methods for factor mapping and the formal inclusion of discrete factors in SA (for example for model structure comparison). We will analyse these questions using relevant examples and discuss possible ways forward. We aim at stimulating the discussion within the community of SA developers and users regarding the setting of good practices and on defining priorities for future research.

A Multiscale Simulation Framework to Investigate Hydrobiogeochemical Processes in the Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibe, T. D.; Yang, X.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Hou, Z.; Murray, C. J.; Tartakovsky, A. M.; Tartakovsky, G.; Yang, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Magnetic biosensors: Modelling and simulation.

PubMed

Nabaei, Vahid; Chandrawati, Rona; Heidari, Hadi

2018-04-30

In the past few years, magnetoelectronics has emerged as a promising new platform technology in various biosensors for detection, identification, localisation and manipulation of a wide spectrum of biological, physical and chemical agents. The methods are based on the exposure of the magnetic field of a magnetically labelled biomolecule interacting with a complementary biomolecule bound to a magnetic field sensor. This Review presents various schemes of magnetic biosensor techniques from both simulation and modelling as well as analytical and numerical analysis points of view, and the performance variations under magnetic fields at steady and nonstationary states. This is followed by magnetic sensors modelling and simulations using advanced Multiphysics modelling software (e.g. Finite Element Method (FEM) etc.) and home-made developed tools. Furthermore, outlook and future directions of modelling and simulations of magnetic biosensors in different technologies and materials are critically discussed. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomimetic strategies for the glioblastoma microenvironment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cha, Junghwa; Kim, Pilnam

2017-12-01

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a devastating type of tumor with high mortality, caused by extensive infiltration into adjacent tissue and rapid recurrence. Most therapies for GBM have focused on the cytotoxicity, and have not targeted GBM spread. However, there have been numerous attempts to improve therapy by addressing GBM invasion, through understanding and mimicking its behavior using three-dimensional (3D) experimental models. Compared with two-dimensional models and in vivo animal models, 3D GBM models can capture the invasive motility of glioma cells within a 3D environment comprising many cellular and non-cellular components. Based on tissue engineering techniques, GBM invasion has been investigated within a biologically relevant environment, from biophysical and biochemical perspectives, to clarify the pro-invasive factors of GBM. This review discusses the recent progress in techniques for modeling the microenvironments of GBM tissue and suggests future directions with respect to recreating the GBM microenvironment and preclinical applications.