Critical Endowment Policy Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapovsky, Lucie

2007-01-01

Governing boards and administrations wrestle with complex endowment policy decisions that will determine current institutional quality and future institutional viability. This chapter presents data from the 2006 NACUBO Endowment Study (published in 2007), divided into the following issues of endowment management: historical returns; endowment…

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Future leisure environments

Treesearch

Elwood L. Shafer; George H. Moeller; Russell E. Getty

1974-01-01

As an aid to policy- and decision-making about future environmental problems, a panel of experts was asked to predict the probabilities of future events associated with natural-resource management, wildland-recreation management, environmental pollution, population-workforce-leisure, and urban environments. Though some of the predictions projected to the year 2050 may...

A methodology and decision support tool for informing state-level bioenergy policymaking: New Jersey biofuels as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brennan-Tonetta, Margaret

This dissertation seeks to provide key information and a decision support tool that states can use to support long-term goals of fossil fuel displacement and greenhouse gas reductions. The research yields three outcomes: (1) A methodology that allows for a comprehensive and consistent inventory and assessment of bioenergy feedstocks in terms of type, quantity, and energy potential. Development of a standardized methodology for consistent inventorying of biomass resources fosters research and business development of promising technologies that are compatible with the state's biomass resource base. (2) A unique interactive decision support tool that allows for systematic bioenergy analysis and evaluation of policy alternatives through the generation of biomass inventory and energy potential data for a wide variety of feedstocks and applicable technologies, using New Jersey as a case study. Development of a database that can assess the major components of a bioenergy system in one tool allows for easy evaluation of technology, feedstock and policy options. The methodology and decision support tool is applicable to other states and regions (with location specific modifications), thus contributing to the achievement of state and federal goals of renewable energy utilization. (3) Development of policy recommendations based on the results of the decision support tool that will help to guide New Jersey into a sustainable renewable energy future. The database developed in this research represents the first ever assessment of bioenergy potential for New Jersey. It can serve as a foundation for future research and modifications that could increase its power as a more robust policy analysis tool. As such, the current database is not able to perform analysis of tradeoffs across broad policy objectives such as economic development vs. CO2 emissions, or energy independence vs. source reduction of solid waste. Instead, it operates one level below that with comparisons of kWh or GGE generated by different feedstock/technology combinations at the state and county level. Modification of the model to incorporate factors that will enable the analysis of broader energy policy issues as those mentioned above, are recommended for future research efforts.

Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

PubMed

Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

2012-04-01

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other risk management situations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Healthcare resource allocation decisions affecting uninsured services

PubMed Central

Harrison, Krista Lyn; Taylor, Holly A.

2017-01-01

Purpose Using the example of community access programs (CAPs), the purpose of this paper is to describe resource allocation and policy decisions related to providing health services for the uninsured in the USA and the organizational values affecting these decisions. Design/methodology/approach The study used comparative case study methodology at two geographically diverse sites. Researchers collected data from program documents, meeting observations, and interviews with program stakeholders. Findings Five resource allocation or policy decisions relevant to providing healthcare services were described at each site across three categories: designing the health plan, reacting to funding changes, and revising policies. Organizational values of access to care and stewardship most frequently affected resource allocation and policy decisions, while economic and political pressures affect the relative prioritization of values. Research limitations/implications Small sample size, the potential for social desirability or recall bias, and the exclusion of provider, member or community perspectives beyond those represented among participating board members. Practical implications Program directors or researchers can use this study to assess the extent to which resource allocation and policy decisions align with organizational values and mission statements. Social implications The description of how healthcare decisions are actually made can be matched with literature that describes how healthcare resource decisions ought to be made, in order to provide a normative grounding for future decisions. Originality/value This study addresses a gap in literature regarding how CAPs actually make resource allocation decisions that affect access to healthcare services. PMID:27934550

Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making.

PubMed

Knight, Gwenan M; Dharan, Nila J; Fox, Gregory J; Stennis, Natalie; Zwerling, Alice; Khurana, Renuka; Dowdy, David W

2016-01-01

The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy), the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Scientific literacy for democratic decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yacoubian, Hagop A.

2018-02-01

Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the ideological underpinnings behind a number of the statements within those documents that have defined the trajectory of scientific literacy and have shaped what ought to be considered as personal and societal benefits. I argue that science curricula and policy documents can truly endorse scientific literacy when they embed principles of democratic education at their core. The latter entails fostering learning experiences where some of the underlying assumptions and political ideologies are brought to the conscious level and future citizens encouraged to reflect upon them critically and explicitly. Such a proposal empowers the future citizens to engage in critical deliberation on science-based social issues without taking the underlying status quo for granted. I end up the paper by situating the preparation of scientifically literate citizens within a framework of democratic education, discuss conditions through which a curriculum for scientific literacy can serve democratic decision-making processes, and provide modest recommendations.

Management of carbon across sectors and scales: Insights from land use decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Failey, E. L.

2008-12-01

Carbon management is increasingly becoming a topic of interest among policy circles and business entrepreneurs alike. In the United States, while no binding regulatory framework exists, carbon management is nonetheless being pursued both by voluntary actions at a variety of levels, from the individual to the national level, and through mandatory policies at state and local levels. Controlling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for climate purposes will ultimately require a form of governance that will ensure that the actions taken and being rewarded financially are indeed effective with respect to the global atmosphere on long time scales. Moreover, this new system of governance will need to interface with existing governance structures and decision criteria that have been established to arbitrate among various societal values and priorities. These existing institutions and expressed values will need to be examined against those proposed for effective carbon governance, such as the permanence of carbon storage, the additionality of credited activities, and the prevention of leakage, or displacement of prohibited activities to another region outside the governance boundary. The latter issue suggests that interactions among scales of decision making and governance will be extremely important in determining the ultimate success of any future system of carbon governance. The goal of our study is to understand the current context of land use decision making in different sectors and examine the potential for future carbon policy to be effective given this context. This study examined land use decision making in the U.S. state of Colorado from a variety of ownership perspectives, including US Federal land managers, individual private owners, and policy makers involved in land use at a number of different scales. This paper will report on the results of interviews with land managers and provide insight into the policy context for carbon management through land use. The study also examined the role of information in making decisions, and we will report some interesting contrasts between Federal and private land owner practices. Implications for science policy and the provision of useful information for decision making will be discussed.

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Brown, D. F.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions.

PubMed

Garnett, K; Lickorish, F A; Rocks, S A; Prpich, G; Rathe, A A; Pollard, S J T

2016-08-01

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Organization Development Strategies in Educational Policy Planning and Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, B. Kathryn; Biles, Stephen

1990-01-01

This synthesis reviews organizational development (OD) and its decision tools, describes OD applications in educational organizations, explores OD's limitations, and predicts how OD will influence future educational decision making. Findings identify eight specific management and planning areas where OD can be used to improve organizational…

Science for the Public Good: Tackling scientific integrity in the federal government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Halpern, M.; Johnson, C.

2016-12-01

From hydraulic fracturing to climate change to seismic risk, government science and scientists are integral to public decision making in the geosciences. Following calls for increased scientific integrity across the government, policies have been put in place in recent years to be promote transparency and appropriate use of science in government decision making. But how effective have these initiatives been? With the development of scientific integrity policies, new transparency measures, and other efforts in recent years, are we seeing improvements in how federal agencies use science? And importantly, can these safeguards prevent potential future breaches of scientific integrity and misuse science for political gain? Review of recent progress and problems around government scientific integrity, including case studies, policy assessments, and surveys of federal scientists, can shed light on how far the we have come and what areas still need improvement to ensure that government scientific integrity is preserved in the future.

Socio-Hydrology Modelling for an Uncertain Future, with Examples from the USA and Canada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology,and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, engagement, and new knowledge about the science-policy interface. This paper demonstrates how policy decisions and human behavior can be better integrated into climate and hydrological models to improve their usefulness for support in decision making. Examples from the Southwest USA and Western Canada highlight uncertainties, vulnerabilities, and critical tradeoffs facing water decision makers in the face of rapidly changing environmental and societal conditions. Irreducible uncertainties in downscaled climate and hydrological models limit the usefulness of climate-driven, predict-and-plan methods of water resource planning and management. Thus, it is argued that such methods should be replaced by approaches that use exploratory modelling, scenario planning, and risk assessment in which the emphasis is on managing uncertainty rather than on reducing it.

The Federal Budget Process - Lessons That Can Be Learned

ScienceCinema

Goldberg, Stephen

2017-12-22

The talk will provide up-to-date information on the Federal budget process and present three informative case studies regarding the intersection of budget decisions with important National policy decisions. In conclusion, the lecture will provide a preview of topics that may be interest for future study.

17 CFR 9.33 - Final decision by the Commission.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Final decision by the Commission. 9.33 Section 9.33 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION RULES... appellant raise important questions of law or policy, the Commission may, by appropriate order, summarily...

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban water catchment in Singapore. Ingredients of this approach are: (a) transient scenarios (time series of various uncertain developments such as climate change, economic developments, societal changes), (b) a methodology for exploring many options and sequences of these options across different futures, and (c) a stepwise policy analysis. The strategy is applied on case of flexible deployment of novel, so-called Next Generation Infrastructure, and assessed in context of the proposed. Results of the study show that flexible design alternatives deliver much enhanced performance compared to systems optimized under deterministic forecasts of the future. The work also demonstrates that explicit incorporation of uncertainty and flexibility into decision-making process reduces capital expenditures while allowing decision makers to learn about system evolution throughout the lifetime of the project.

Consumer Decision-Making Abilities and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase.

PubMed

McGarry, Brian E; Tempkin-Greener, Helena; Grabowski, David C; Chapman, Benjamin P; Li, Yue

2018-04-16

To determine the impact of consumer decision-making abilities on making a long-term care insurance (LTCi) purchasing decision that is consistent with normative economic predictions regarding policy ownership. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, multivariate analyses are implemented to estimate the effect of decision-making ability factors on owning LTCi. Stratified multivariate analyses are used to examine the effect of decision-making abilities on the likelihood of adhering to economic predictions of LTCi ownership. In the full sample, better cognitive capacity was found to significantly increase the odds of ownership. When the sample was stratified based on expected LTCi ownership status, cognitive capacity was positively associated with ownership among those predicted to own and negatively associated with ownership among those predicted not to own who could likely afford a policy. Consumer decision-making abilities, specifically cognitive capacity, are an important determinant of LTCi decision outcomes. Deficits in this ability may prevent individuals from successfully preparing for future long-term care expenses. Policy makers should consider changes that reduce the cognitive burden of this choice, including the standardization of the LTCi market, the provision of consumer decision aids, and alternatives to voluntary and private insuring mechanisms.

Do evidence summaries increase policy-makers' use of evidence from systematic reviews: A systematic review protocol.

PubMed

Petkovic, Jennifer; Welch, Vivian; Tugwell, Peter

2015-09-28

Systematic reviews are important for decision-makers. They offer many potential benefits but are often written in technical language, are too long, and do not contain contextual details which makes them hard to use for decision-making. There are many organizations that develop and disseminate derivative products, such as evidence summaries, from systematic reviews for different populations or subsets of decision-makers. This systematic review will assess the effectiveness of systematic review summaries on increasing policymakers' use of systematic review evidence and to identify the components or features of these summaries that are most effective. We will include studies of policy-makers at all levels as well as health-system managers. We will include studies examining any type of "evidence summary," "policy brief," or other products derived from systematic reviews that present evidence in a summarized form. The primary outcomes are the following: (1) use of systematic review summaries decision-making (e.g., self-reported use of the evidence in policy-making, decision-making) and (2) policy-maker understanding, knowledge, and/or beliefs (e.g., changes in knowledge scores about the topic included in the summary). We will conduct a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomized controlled trials (NRCTs), controlled before-after studies (CBA), and interrupted time series (ITS) studies. The results of this review will inform the development of future systematic review summaries to ensure that systematic review evidence is accessible to and used by policy-makers making health-related decisions.

Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

PubMed

Parker, Lisa

2017-07-01

Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On formally integrating science and policy: walking the walk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Boomer, G. Scott

2015-01-01

The contribution of science to the development and implementation of policy is typically neither direct nor transparent.  In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) made a decision that was unprecedented in natural resource management, turning to an unused and unproven decision process to carry out trust responsibilities mandated by an international treaty.  The decision process was adopted for the establishment of annual sport hunting regulations for the most economically important duck population in North America, the 6 to 11 million mallards Anas platyrhynchos breeding in the mid-continent region of north-central United States and central Canada.  The key idea underlying the adopted decision process was to formally embed within it a scientific process designed to reduce uncertainty (learn) and thus make better decisions in the future.  The scientific process entails use of models to develop predictions of competing hypotheses about system response to the selected action at each decision point.  These prediction not only are used to select the optimal management action, but also are compared with the subsequent estimates of system state variables, providing evidence for modifying degrees of confidence in, and hence relative influence of, these models at the next decision point.  Science and learning in one step are formally and directly incorporated into the next decision, contrasting with the usual ad hoc and indirect use of scientific results in policy development and decision-making.  Application of this approach over the last 20 years has led to a substantial reduction in uncertainty, as well as to an increase in transparency and defensibility of annual decisions and a decrease in the contentiousness of the decision process.  As resource managers are faced with increased uncertainty associated with various components of global change, this approach provides a roadmap for the future scientific management of natural resources.  

Identifying Decision-Makers’ Science Needs for Adaptation to Climate-Related Impacts on Forest Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, E.; Lukas, J.

2009-12-01

Through the Western Water Assessment RISA program, we are conducting a research project that will produce science synthesis information to help local, state, and federal decision-makers in Colorado and Wyoming develop adaptation strategies to deal with climate-related threats to forest ecosystem services, in particular bark beetle infestations and stand-replacing wildfires. We begin by using the problem orientation framework, a policy sciences methodology, to understand how decision-makers can most effectively address policy problems that threaten the attainment of socially accepted goals. By applying this framework to the challenges facing decision-makers, we more accurately identify specific areas where scientific research can improve decision-making. WWA researchers will next begin to connect decision-makers with relevant scientific literature and identify specific areas of future scientific research that will be most effective at addressing their needs.

Decision Making Policies and Worker Influence in Employee Owned Firms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammer, Tove Helland

A study of a small employee-owned furniture company indicated that the three occupational groups agreed that management should have more influence in decisions affecting the future of the organization. On the other hand, issues which would directly affect employee welfare are seen as areas where control should be fairly evenly divided, with…

Decisions Nonindustrial Forest Landowners Make: An Empirical Examination

Treesearch

M. Christine Conway; Gregory S. Amacher; Jay Sullivan; David Wear

2003-01-01

Our purpose is to estimate a model of non-industrial forest landowner behavior that considers certain types of behavior that have escaped discussion and rigorous investigation in the literature, yet which are critical to future policy making. Our focus on the many different but related decisions landowners make broadens the typical understanding of landowner behavior...

Moving PISA Results into the Policy Arena: Perspectives on Knowledge Transfer for Future Considerations and Preparations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yore, Larry D.; Anderson, John O.; Chiu, Mei-Hung

2010-01-01

Evidence-based policies, decisions, and practices are highly valued and underachieved in the international mathematics and science education reforms. Many in the mathematics and science education research communities lament the lack of influence that research results have on the education profession, schools, and teaching. Academic research done…

Debated agronomy: public discourse and the future of biotechnology policy in Ghana.

PubMed

Braimah, Joseph A; Atuoye, Kilian N; Vercillo, Siera; Warring, Carrie; Luginaah, Isaac

2017-01-01

This paper examines the highly contested and ongoing biotechnology (Bt) policy-making process in Ghana. We analyse media content on how Bt is viewed in the context of Ghana's parliamentary debate on the Plant Breeders Bill and within the broader public policy-making literature. This paper does not seek to take a position on Bt or the Bill, but to understand how policy actors influence the debate with political and scientific rhetoric in Ghana. The study reveals that in the midst of scientific uncertainties of Bt's potential for sustainable agriculture production and food security, policy decisions that encourage its future adoption are heavily influenced by health, scientific, economic, environmental and political factors dictated by different ideologies, values and norms. While locally pioneered plant breeding is visible and common in the Ghanaian food chain, plant breeding/GMOs/Bt from international corporations is strongly resisted by anti-GMO coalitions. Understanding the complex and messy nature of Bt policy-making is critical for future development of agricultural technology in Ghana and elsewhere.

Spacepower for Australias Security - Grand Strategy or Strategy of Grandeur

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

2000), 34–35; Also see Peter H Diamandis and Steven Kotler , Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (New York: Free Press, 2012...Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982), 4; Graham T Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the...Ala.: Air University Press, 2009. Allison, Graham T, and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York

The Science-Policy Link: Stakeholder Reactions to the Uncertainties of Future Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Bye, B.

2011-12-01

Policy makers and stakeholders in the coastal zone are equally challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation. More than 40% of the global population is living in or near the coastal zone and this fraction is steadily increasing. A rise in LSL will increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and population dramatically, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Policy makers are faced with a trade-off between imposing today the often very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations. They are in need of actionable information that provides guidance for the development of coastal zones resilient to future sea level changes. Part of this actionable information comes from risk and vulnerability assessments, which require information on future LSL changes as input. In most cases, a deterministic approach has been applied based on predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input. However, there is little consensus in the scientific community on how these trajectories should be determined, and what the boundaries of the plausible range are. Over the last few years, many publications in Science, Nature and other peer-reviewed scientific journals have revealed a broad range of possible futures and significant epistemic uncertainties and gaps concerning LSL changes. Based on the somewhat diffuse science input, policy and decision makers have made rather different choices for mitigation and adaptation in cases such as Venice, The Netherlands, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay area. Replacing the deterministic, prediction-based approach with a statistical one that fully accounts for the uncertainties and epistemic gaps would provide a different kind of science input to policy makers and stakeholders. Like in many other insurance problems (for example, earthquakes), where deterministic predictions are not possible and decisions have to be made on the basis of statistics and probabilities, the statistical approach to coastal resilience would require stakeholders to make decisions on the basis of probabilities instead of predictions. The science input for informed decisions on adaptation would consist of general probabilities of decadal to century scale sea level changes derived from paleo records, including the probabilities for large and rapid rises. Similar to other problems where the appearance of a hazard is associated with a high risk (like a fire in a house), this approach would also require a monitoring and warning system (a "smoke detector") capable of detecting any onset of a rapid sea level rise.

Energy justice and U.S. energy policy: Case study applications exploring U.S. energy policy through an energy justice framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prehoda, Emily W.

This thesis presents three examples of U.S. energy policy and demonstrates how these policies violate the principles of energy justice. First, requiring only Federal agencies to obtain a percentage of energy production from renewables violates the distributive energy justice principle through a lack of a federal renewable energy policy which distributes the potential for unequal electrical grid failure to populations. Second, U.S. energy policy violates the procedural energy justice principle through inequitable participation and poor knowledge dissemination that, in some cases, contributes to stagnant renewable targets during the decision-making process and inequitable distribution of the benefits associated with renewable energy arguably resulting from differential representation of economic groups in policy decision making. Third, the United States' continued reliance on and subsidization of fossil fuel extraction and use, violates the prohibitive energy justice principle by causing physical harm to humans and the environment. Finally, a lack of federal renewable energy policy hinders comprehensive energy policy including diversifying the U.S. renewable energy portfolios. Considering energy policy through the framework of energy justice offers a means of evaluating existing policy and can improve future energy policy decision-making. Demanding energy justice ensures that all populations have equitable distribution, participation, and access to affordable, efficient, and clean energy technologies that contribute to obtaining basic needs.

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.

2018-02-01

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Competition for land

PubMed Central

Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlík, Petr; Rounsevell, Mark; Woods, Jeremy; Stehfest, Elke; Bellarby, Jessica

2010-01-01

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future. PMID:20713395

Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

2014-12-01

Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.

A Comparison of Community and State College Leader Perceptions of Trustee Involvement in Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Adam A.; Miller, Michael T.

2014-01-01

Trustees play an important role in determining the direction, priorities, and future of higher education institutions, and as such, are critical actors in the decision-making and policy formation process. Numerous anecdotal reports have concluded that there are often competing interests in the use and structure of trustees throughout higher…

Pathways as a tool for the governance of sustainable management of soilsubsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellen, G. J.; Hommes, S.

2017-12-01

Subsidence is a physical, societal, economic and institutional challenge for the Netherlands. For urban areas because subsidence threatens the nearby future the liveability and touristic attractiveness of the historic cities. For the rural areas because it affects the - intensive - agricultural landuse which is an important pilar of the Dutch economy. Policy and decision-making concerning subsidence is suffering from `non-decision making'. Subsidence has been described and mapped based on (geological and geotechnical) scientific research, but the subject has only been marginally addressing in the national, regional and local policy arena's. To actually make it possible for subsidence to be discussed in the policy arena a method was designed which was used in two cases : the Dutch city of Gouda and a more rural area in the province of Flevoland in the middle of the Netherlands. The method used was based on three building blocks. First of all future perspectives - scenario planning methodology was used to create future perspectives on coping with land subsidence. For example for Gouda we created 4 future perspectives for 2060 distinguishing between allocation of responsibilities (public or private) and the strategic decision to cope with land subsidence (halt or continue to sink). The second building block was the use of pathways, were each pathway consisted of a cluster of land subsidence strategies covering the many dimensions of land subsidence, ranging from houses and their foundations for the city of Gouda towards different types of agricultural land use for the rural area in the province of Flevoland. The last building block was a governance design approach were for every pathway a governance arrangements were designed together with stakeholders. The method was evaluated and proved to be very useful. First, a better understanding of the unsustainability of subsidence was obtained. In addition, the different perspectives and strategies stimulated discussions within the policy arena's on what might be needed especially in terms of governance. Finally, after applying the described method a higher awareness has been gained on `non-decision making' and ways to move forward.

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

2009-01-01

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

Edufare for the Future Precariat: The Moral Agenda in Australia's "Earning or Learning" Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doherty, Catherine

2017-01-01

This paper considers the educational experience constructed under Australia's policy decision in 2009 to extend compulsory education by requiring that students must be "earning or learning" till 17 years of age. The discussion draws on an empirical project that explored the moral order operating in classrooms for students retained under…

Ensuring a Bright Future for Babies: How to Advocate Effectively for Infants and Toddlers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rappaport, Debbie M.; Yarbrough, Karen

2006-01-01

Rappaport and Yarbrough describe three steps for early childhood professionals to take toward becoming effective advocates for infants and toddlers: (1) gather information about the public policy process; (2) learn to communicate effectively about the early years; and (3) build and maintain relationships with allies who can make policy decisions.…

From irreversibility to participation: towards a participatory foresight for the governance of collective environmental risks.

PubMed

Faucheux, S; Hue, C

2001-09-14

This paper presents a reflection on the introduction of methods and tools of "participative foresight" for scientific and technology policy as well as environmental policy fields. Future studies have recently made a comeback under the label of foresight. Future technology studies no longer claim to forecast the future, but are presented as a strategic tool for improving interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making. They can be defined as a "process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision-making" [Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking, Futures Res. Quart. (1985) 29]. We discuss applications of this approach for perspectives on environmental policy and sustainable development. Foresight opens up the possibility of negotiating a new and more fruitful relationship or 'social contract' between science and technology, on the one hand, and society on the other. The focus has moved from merely scientific and industrial insights to social demand, thus emphasizing the importance of both the production and "supply" of innovation, and the "demand" as signaled in the views of citizens.

Planning for regime change and its aftermath

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

countries’ governing regimes since 9/11–Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya–and U.S. policy at time of writing supports two more. Despite this experience...Iraq, and Libya–and U.S. policy at time of writing supports two more. Despite this experience, and the likely future need, the U.S. has no...time of writing , U.S. policy publicly supports regime change in Syria and North Korea. President Obama’s decision not to militarily intervene to

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community-based assessment and planning of energy futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnes, S. A.

1981-04-01

The decentralized solar energy technology assessment program is discussed. Four communities were involved in an assessment of the compatibility of diverse conservation and renewable energy supply technologies and community values and goals and in community planning for the implementation of compatible energy demand and supply alternatives. The community approach has several basic components: (1) recruiting and organizing for the assessment planning process; (2) collection and analysis of data related to community energy use and indigenous renewable energy resources; (3) creation and maintenance of a community education and information program; (4) development of policies favorable to the development of preferred community futures; and (5) development of implementation or action strategies. The role of public participation, group decision making techniques, the role of technical information in citizen and group decision making, and linkage between assessment planning and the relevant policy process are emphasized.

Injury and violence prevention policy: celebrating our successes, protecting our future.

PubMed

Koné, Rebecca Greco; Zurick, Elizabeth; Patterson, Sara; Peeples, Amy

2012-09-01

Policy strategies for injury and violence prevention influence systems development, organizational change, social norms, and individual behavior to improve the health and safety of a population. Injury and violence prevention professionals should consider how their issues resonate with various audiences, including policy makers, the public, and other decision makers. As the cost of healthcare continues to rise and greater demands are placed on the healthcare system, the use of public health policy becomes increasingly critical to protect the public's health and prevent injury and violence and its related morbidities and disabilities (Degutis, 2011). This article highlights some impactful policy successes from the field, allows us to reflect on the Injury Center's 20th anniversary, and describes steps to address injuries and violence into the future. The purpose of this paper is to discuss policy as a public health strategy and the critical role it plays in injury and violence prevention. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Emotion expression, decision-making and well-being.

PubMed

Xiao, Erte

2008-01-01

This chapter discusses the role of emotion expression in decision-making. To understand connections between emotion and decision it is helpful first to differentiate between emotion experience and emotion expression. Understanding how emotion expression influences decision-making is important as a practical matter. However, in contrast to emotion experience, economic research has paid little attention to the significance of emotion expression in decision-making. I review recent studies on emotion expression, paying specific attention to possible connections between emotion expression, punishment, fair economic exchange, and well-being. In contrast to emotions, which are typically difficult to control, I suggest that opportunities for emotion expression can feasibly be manipulated through appropriately designed policies. I further suggest that this approach may have the ability to positively affect well-being and economic outcomes. VALUE OF THE CHAPTER: The chapter provides new perspectives on how policy-makers can benefit by understanding the effect of emotion expression in decision-making. The chapter also suggests future research to improve our understanding of emotion expression.

Debated agronomy: public discourse and the future of biotechnology policy in Ghana

PubMed Central

Braimah, Joseph A.; Atuoye, Kilian N.; Vercillo, Siera; Warring, Carrie; Luginaah, Isaac

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT This paper examines the highly contested and ongoing biotechnology (Bt) policy-making process in Ghana. We analyse media content on how Bt is viewed in the context of Ghana’s parliamentary debate on the Plant Breeders Bill and within the broader public policy-making literature. This paper does not seek to take a position on Bt or the Bill, but to understand how policy actors influence the debate with political and scientific rhetoric in Ghana. The study reveals that in the midst of scientific uncertainties of Bt’s potential for sustainable agriculture production and food security, policy decisions that encourage its future adoption are heavily influenced by health, scientific, economic, environmental and political factors dictated by different ideologies, values and norms. While locally pioneered plant breeding is visible and common in the Ghanaian food chain, plant breeding/GMOs/Bt from international corporations is strongly resisted by anti-GMO coalitions. Understanding the complex and messy nature of Bt policy-making is critical for future development of agricultural technology in Ghana and elsewhere. PMID:29147107

Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

PubMed

Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-09-01

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shared decision-making at the end of life: A focus group study exploring the perceptions and experiences of multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals working in the home setting.

PubMed

Brogan, Paula; Hasson, Felicity; McIlfatrick, Sonja

2018-01-01

Globally recommended in healthcare policy, Shared Decision-Making is also central to international policy promoting community palliative care. Yet realities of implementation by multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals who provide end-of-life care in the home are unclear. To explore multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals' perceptions and experiences of Shared Decision-Making at end of life in the home. Qualitative design using focus groups, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. A total of 43 participants, from multi-disciplinary community-based services in one region of the United Kingdom, were recruited. While the rhetoric of Shared Decision-Making was recognised, its implementation was impacted by several interconnecting factors, including (1) conceptual confusion regarding Shared Decision-Making, (2) uncertainty in the process and (3) organisational factors which impeded Shared Decision-Making. Multiple interacting factors influence implementation of Shared Decision-Making by professionals working in complex community settings at the end of life. Moving from rhetoric to reality requires future work exploring the realities of Shared Decision-Making practice at individual, process and systems levels.

Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline Emissions Study

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Understanding the effects of gasoline sulfur level on the in-use fleet is important for assessing emissions inventories and impacts of future policy decisions. Test fuels were two non-ethanol gasolines with properties typical of certification fuel.

Health Policy in Physician Assistant Education: Teaching Considerations and a Model Curriculum.

PubMed

Kidd, Vasco Deon; Cawley, James F; Kayingo, Gerald

2016-03-01

Recognition is growing within the medical academic community that future clinicians will need the tools to understand and influence health policy decisions. With the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, future clinicians will need not only clinical competence for successful practice but also an understanding of how health systems function. Although the fourth edition of the Accreditation Standards for Physician Assistant Education contains provisions and stipulations for the teaching of health topics in general and health policy specifically, physician assistant (PA) educators retain little consensus regarding either learning objectives or specific rubrics for teaching these important concepts. In this article, we discuss approaches for teaching health policy, delineate useful educational resources for PA faculty, and propose a model curriculum.

Telecommunications Policy Research Conference. Future of Cable TV Section. Papers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Telecommunications Policy Research Conference, Inc., Washington, DC.

This group of four papers considers the future of the cable television industry, and in particular, examines the impact of recent court and regulatory decisions in this field. The papers presented are: (1) "The First Amendment, Cable TV, and the Must-Carry Rule: Moving towards a Cost-Benefit Analysis" (John R. Woodbury, Federal Trade…

The Future of Vocational Education. A Report on the National Bicentennial Conference on Vocational Education (Minneapolis, Minnesota, October 10-13, 1976).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pautler, Albert J., Jr., Ed.

Proceedings are presented from a conference of over 1,000 people, the purposes of which were (1) to look at the future of vocational education, (2) to examine the influences which make an impact on present and future vocational education decision and policymakers, and (3) to arrive at a suggested national policy for vocational education. Sections…

Challenges in getting workforce research in nursing used for decision-making in policy and practice: a Canadian perspective.

PubMed

O'Brien-Pallas, Linda; Hayes, Laureen

2008-12-01

This paper draws upon empirical research and other published sources to discuss nursing workforce issues, the challenges of using health human resource research in policy decisions and the importance of evidence-based policies and practices for nursing care and outcomes. Increasing evidence points to the critical relationship between registered nurse care and improved patient outcomes. The negative impact that insufficient nurse staffing has on patient, nursing and system outcomes has influenced health human resource researchers to further examine nurses' work environments to determine factors that are amenable to policy change. Survey of literature was conducted. Electronic databases were searched using keywords. Sustained health human resource planning efforts by policy makers are difficult given changing governments and political agendas. The health human resource conceptual framework provides researchers and planners with a guide to decision-making that considers current circumstances as well as those factors that need to be accounted for in predicting future requirements. However, effective use of research depends on communication of findings between researchers and policymakers. Health care managers and other decision-makers in health care organisations often lack an understanding of the research process and do not always have easy access to current evidence. Also, managerial decisions are often constrained by organisational requirements such as resource availability and policies and procedures. Unless nursing workplace issues are addressed, the physiological and psychological stress in the work environments of nurses will continue. Effective health human resource policy and planning (at the macro level) and management strategies (at the micro level) would stabilise the nursing workforce and reduce job stress. Furthermore, the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the health system could be enhanced through improved health outcomes of care providers and health care clients.

How robust is a robust policy? A comparative analysis of alternative robustness metrics for supporting robust decision analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2015-04-01

In response to climate and socio-economic change, in various policy domains there is increasingly a call for robust plans or policies. That is, plans or policies that performs well in a very large range of plausible futures. In the literature, a wide range of alternative robustness metrics can be found. The relative merit of these alternative conceptualizations of robustness has, however, received less attention. Evidently, different robustness metrics can result in different plans or policies being adopted. This paper investigates the consequences of several robustness metrics on decision making, illustrated here by the design of a flood risk management plan. A fictitious case, inspired by a river reach in the Netherlands is used. The performance of this system in terms of casualties, damages, and costs for flood and damage mitigation actions is explored using a time horizon of 100 years, and accounting for uncertainties pertaining to climate change and land use change. A set of candidate policy options is specified up front. This set of options includes dike raising, dike strengthening, creating more space for the river, and flood proof building and evacuation options. The overarching aim is to design an effective flood risk mitigation strategy that is designed from the outset to be adapted over time in response to how the future actually unfolds. To this end, the plan will be based on the dynamic adaptive policy pathway approach (Haasnoot, Kwakkel et al. 2013) being used in the Dutch Delta Program. The policy problem is formulated as a multi-objective robust optimization problem (Kwakkel, Haasnoot et al. 2014). We solve the multi-objective robust optimization problem using several alternative robustness metrics, including both satisficing robustness metrics and regret based robustness metrics. Satisficing robustness metrics focus on the performance of candidate plans across a large ensemble of plausible futures. Regret based robustness metrics compare the performance of a candidate plan with the performance of other candidate plans across a large ensemble of plausible futures. Initial results suggest that the simplest satisficing metric, inspired by the signal to noise ratio, results in very risk averse solutions. Other satisficing metrics, which handle the average performance and the dispersion around the average separately, provide substantial additional insights into the trade off between the average performance, and the dispersion around this average. In contrast, the regret-based metrics enhance insight into the relative merits of candidate plans, while being less clear on the average performance or the dispersion around this performance. These results suggest that it is beneficial to use multiple robustness metrics when doing a robust decision analysis study. Haasnoot, M., J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker and J. Ter Maat (2013). "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A New Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World." Global Environmental Change 23(2): 485-498. Kwakkel, J. H., M. Haasnoot and W. E. Walker (2014). "Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world." Climatic Change.

Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

2016-01-01

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Looking at CER from the managed care organization perspective.

PubMed

Cannon, H Eric

2012-05-01

The amount of available comparative effectiveness research (CER) is increasing, giving managed care organizations (MCOs) more information to use in decision making. However, MCOs may not be prepared to integrate this new and voluminous data into their current practices and policies. To describe ways that health care reform will affect MCO populations in the future, to examine examples of how MCOs have utilized CER data in the past, and to identify questions that MCOs will have to address as they integrate CER into future decision making. Unquestionably, health care reform will change the U.S. market. Millions more insured individuals will be making purchasing decisions. In addition, health care reform will mean more CER data will be available, affecting the decisions MCOs must make. In the past, MCOs may not have used CER as effectively as they could in making formulary and other policy decisions. However, there are examples that show how CER can be integrated effectively, such as Intermountain Healthcare's use of CER to create treatment guidelines, which have been shown to lower costs and improve delivery of care. In the future, MCOs will need to assess their own abilities to utilize CER, including their infrastructure of expertise, hardware, software, and protocols and processes. MCOs will also need to understand how pertinent CER is to their own needs, how it may affect benefit design, and how it will affect their customers' needs. Health care reform, and the resultant growth of CER, will have significant impact on MCOs, who will need to invest in better infrastructure and new understandings of a transforming market, changing customer bases, and evolving data.

Policy Tree Optimization for Adaptive Management of Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J. D.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Water resources systems must cope with irreducible uncertainty in supply and demand, requiring policy alternatives capable of adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. Recent studies have developed adaptive policies based on "signposts" or "tipping points", which are threshold values of indicator variables that signal a change in policy. However, there remains a need for a general method to optimize the choice of indicators and their threshold values in a way that is easily interpretable for decision makers. Here we propose a conceptual framework and computational algorithm to design adaptive policies as a tree structure (i.e., a hierarchical set of logical rules) using a simulation-optimization approach based on genetic programming. We demonstrate the approach using Folsom Reservoir, California as a case study, in which operating policies must balance the risk of both floods and droughts. Given a set of feature variables, such as reservoir level, inflow observations and forecasts, and time of year, the resulting policy defines the conditions under which flood control and water supply hedging operations should be triggered. Importantly, the tree-based rule sets are easy to interpret for decision making, and can be compared to historical operating policies to understand the adaptations needed under possible climate change scenarios. Several remaining challenges are discussed, including the empirical convergence properties of the method, and extensions to irreversible decisions such as infrastructure. Policy tree optimization, and corresponding open-source software, provide a generalizable, interpretable approach to designing adaptive policies under uncertainty for water resources systems.

Top 40 Priorities for Science to Inform US Conservation and Management Policy

EPA Science Inventory

We present a list of America's "Top 40" high-priority questions that, if answered, would help inform some of the most important current and future decisions about resource management in the United States

How long can global ecological overshoot last?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBain, Bonnie; Lenzen, Manfred; Wackernagel, Mathis; Albrecht, Glenn

2017-08-01

The ability of the Ecological Footprint to communicate complex environmental information in a clear and accessible way is well known; however, with growing environmental complexity, we will require increasingly sophisticated environmental indicators to inform our decisions. We have developed an integrated and dynamic global model to investigate future trajectories of the Ecological Footprint. Under a range of futures and without the mitigation of human resource demand, we find that the discrepancy between global demand and renewable supply of resources is likely to increase. Continued overshoot, although possible in the short term, means the global community is increasingly exposed to risks of environmental collapse due to the approach of at least two planetary boundaries relating to land use expansion and climate change. We show that, the Ecological Footprint trajectory and the time between the commencement of ecological overshoot and ecological collapse is sensitive to global technological, economic and population policy decisions. Importantly, this work presents a tool which can be used to support transdisciplinary decision-maker collaborations examining the risk associated with alternative policy options in the face of uncertainty at multiple scales.

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

2016-01-01

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

2016-05-26

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions.

Identifying and assessing the application of ecosystem services approaches in environmental policies and decision making.

PubMed

Van Wensem, Joke; Calow, Peter; Dollacker, Annik; Maltby, Lorraine; Olander, Lydia; Tuvendal, Magnus; Van Houtven, George

2017-01-01

The presumption is that ecosystem services (ES) approaches provide a better basis for environmental decision making than do other approaches because they make explicit the connection between human well-being and ecosystem structures and processes. However, the existing literature does not provide a precise description of ES approaches for environmental policy and decision making, nor does it assess whether these applications will make a difference in terms of changing decisions and improving outcomes. We describe 3 criteria that can be used to identify whether and to what extent ES approaches are being applied: 1) connect impacts all the way from ecosystem changes to human well-being, 2) consider all relevant ES affected by the decision, and 3) consider and compare the changes in well-being of different stakeholders. As a demonstration, we then analyze retrospectively whether and how the criteria were met in different decision-making contexts. For this assessment, we have developed an analysis format that describes the type of policy, the relevant scales, the decisions or questions, the decision maker, and the underlying documents. This format includes a general judgment of how far the 3 ES criteria have been applied. It shows that the criteria can be applied to many different decision-making processes, ranging from the supranational to the local scale and to different parts of decision-making processes. In conclusion we suggest these criteria could be used for assessments of the extent to which ES approaches have been and should be applied, what benefits and challenges arise, and whether using ES approaches made a difference in the decision-making process, decisions made, or outcomes of those decisions. Results from such studies could inform future use and development of ES approaches, draw attention to where the greatest benefits and challenges are, and help to target integration of ES approaches into policies, where they can be most effective. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:41-51. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Health technology assessment in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Al-Aqeel, Sinaa

2018-05-16

The Saudi government, similar to any other government, is committed to making public spending more efficient, using resources more effectively, and limiting waste. Health technology assessment (HTA) is a tool that informs policy and decision makers regarding the formulation of safe and effective policies that are patient-focused and help to achieve efficiency when allocating limited health-care resources. Areas covered: After a brief description of HTA in the international context, this review provides a brief introduction to Saudi Arabia's health-care system, followed by a delineation of the decision maker(s) and influencers and the decision-making process for pricing and reimbursement. The article then discusses the current status of HTA in Saudi Arabia and proposes four strategic objectives that can form the first step in the development of a formal HTA process. Expert commentary: In Saudi Arabia, facilitators for incorporating HTA into the decision-making process exist. Future local research is needed to guide the implementation of full HTA.

Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

2010-01-01

Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

Intercity passenger rail : Congress faces critical decisions in developing a national policy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-04-11

This document is the statement of JayEtta Z. Hecker, Director, Physical Infrastructure. Testimony before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives on the future of intercity passenger rail...

Decision analytic models for Alzheimer's disease: state of the art and future directions.

PubMed

Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

2008-05-01

Decision analytic policy models for Alzheimer's disease (AD) enable researchers and policy makers to investigate questions about the costs and benefits of a wide range of existing and potential screening, testing, and treatment strategies. Such models permit analysts to compare existing alternatives, explore hypothetical scenarios, and test the strength of underlying assumptions in an explicit, quantitative, and systematic way. Decision analytic models can best be viewed as complementing clinical trials both by filling knowledge gaps not readily addressed by empirical research and by extrapolating beyond the surrogate markers recorded in a trial. We identified and critiqued 13 distinct AD decision analytic policy models published since 1997. Although existing models provide useful insights, they also have a variety of limitations. (1) They generally characterize disease progression in terms of cognitive function and do not account for other distinguishing features, such as behavioral symptoms, functional performance, and the emotional well-being of AD patients and caregivers. (2) Many describe disease progression in terms of a limited number of discrete states, thus constraining the level of detail that can be used to characterize both changes in patient status and the relationships between disease progression and other factors, such as residential status, that influence outcomes of interest. (3) They have focused almost exclusively on evaluating drug treatments, thus neglecting other disease management strategies and combinations of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions. Future AD models should facilitate more realistic and compelling evaluations of various interventions to address the disease. An improved model will allow decision makers to better characterize the disease, to better assess the costs and benefits of a wide range of potential interventions, and to better evaluate the incremental costs and benefits of specific interventions used in conjunction with other disease management strategies.

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. Inmore » this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the effects of innovative (no n-monetary) policy instruments through evaluation and to develop approaches to model both conventional and innovative policies. The explicit modeling of barriers and decision making in the models seems a promising way to enable modeling of conventional and innovative policies. A modular modeling approach is essential to not only provide transparency, but also to use the available resources most effectively and efficiently. Many large models have been developed in the past, but have been abandoned after only brief periods of use. A development path based on modular building blocks needs the establishment of a flexible but uniform modeling framework. The leadership of international agencies and organizations is essential in the establishment of such a framework. A preference is given for ''softlinks'' between different modules and models, to increase transparency and reduce complexity. There is a strong need to improve the efficiency of data collection and interpretation efforts to produce reliable model inputs. The workshop participants support the need for the establishment of an (in-)formal exchanges of information, as well as modeling approaches. The development of an informal network of research institutes and universities to help build a common dataset and exchange ideas on specific areas is proposed. Starting with an exchange of students would be a relative low-cost way to start such collaboration. It would be essential to focus on specific topics. It is also essential to maintain means of regular exchange of ideas between researchers in the different focus points.« less

Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, A. H.; Daniel, J. S.; Portmann, R. W.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Young, P. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Rosenlof, K. H.

2016-06-01

Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.

Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems.

PubMed

Bankes, Steven C

2002-05-14

Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis.

A decision-analytic approach to predict state regulation of hydraulic fracturing.

PubMed

Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin; Jin, David; Mazurczak, Marcin; Schreurs, Miranda

2014-01-01

The development of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods has dramatically increased the potential for the extraction of previously unrecoverable natural gas. Nonetheless, the potential risks and hazards associated with such technologies are not without controversy and are compounded by frequently changing information and an uncertain landscape of international politics and laws. Where each nation has its own energy policies and laws, predicting how a state with natural gas reserves that require hydraulic fracturing will regulate the industry is of paramount importance for potential developers and extractors. We present a method for predicting hydraulic fracturing decisions using multiple-criteria decision analysis. The case study evaluates the decisions of five hypothetical countries with differing political, social, environmental, and economic priorities, choosing among four policy alternatives: open hydraulic fracturing, limited hydraulic fracturing, completely banned hydraulic fracturing, and a cap and trade program. The result is a model that identifies the preferred policy alternative for each archetypal country and demonstrates the sensitivity the decision to particular metrics. Armed with such information, observers can predict each country's likely decisions related to natural gas exploration as more data become available or political situations change. Decision analysis provides a method to manage uncertainty and address forecasting concerns where rich and objective data may be lacking. For the case of hydraulic fracturing, the various political pressures and extreme uncertainty regarding the technology's risks and benefits serve as a prime platform to demonstrate how decision analysis can be used to predict future behaviors.

Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the ex...

IMPROVING THE SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

PETERS, JON S.; SCHNEIDER, RAYMOND C.

GUIDELINES FOR CREATING IMPROVED EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENTS ARE PRESENTED WITH SUPPLEMENTARY DRAWINGS, DIAGRAMS, AND PHOTOGRAPHS. POLICY DECISIONS ARE RELATED TO--(1) THE SCHOOL'S RESPONSIBILITY TO THE FUTURE, (2) INDUSTRY'S RULE IN EDUCATION, AND (3) BUILDING PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IS DISCUSSED IN TERMS OF--(1) ART…

Development of the Supported Decision Making Inventory System.

PubMed

Shogren, Karrie A; Wehmeyer, Michael L; Uyanik, Hatice; Heidrich, Megan

2017-12-01

Supported decision making has received increased attention as an alternative to guardianship and a means to enable people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to exercise their right to legal capacity. Assessments are needed that can used by people with disabilities and their systems of supports to identify and plan for needed supports to enable decision making. This article describes the steps taken to develop such an assessment tool, the Supported Decision Making Inventory System (SDMIS), and initial feedback received from self-advocates with intellectual disability. The three sections of the SDMIS (Supported Decision Making Personal Factors Inventory, Supported Decision Making Environmental Demands Inventory, and Decision Making Autonomy Inventory) are described and implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Treesearch

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Forecasting the effects of land-use and climate change on wildlife communities and habitats in the lower Mississippi Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faulkner, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

Landscape patterns and processes reflect both natural ecosystem attributes and the policy and management decisions of individual Federal, State, county, and private organizations. Land-use regulation, water management, and habitat conservation and restoration efforts increasingly rely on landscape-level approaches that incorporate scientific information into the decision-making process. Since management actions are implemented to affect future conditions, decision-support models are necessary to forecast potential future conditions resulting from these decisions. Spatially explicit modeling approaches enable testing of different scenarios and help evaluate potential outcomes of management actions in conjunction with natural processes such as climate change. The ability to forecast the effects of changing land use and climate is critically important to land and resource managers since their work is inherently site specific, yet conservation strategies and practices are expressed at higher spatial and temporal scales that must be considered in the decisionmaking process.

A translation table for patient-centered comparative effectiveness research: guidance to improve the value of research for clinical and health policy decision-making.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Messner, Donna A; Mohr, Penny; Gliklich, Richard E; Dubois, Robert W

2012-05-01

This article provides background and context for a series of papers stemming from a collaborative effort by Outcome Sciences, Inc., the National Pharmaceutical Council and the Center for Medical Technology Policy to use a stakeholder-driven process to develop a decision tool to select appropriate methods for comparative effectiveness research. The perceived need and origins of the 'translation table' concept for method selection are described and the legislative history and role of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute are reviewed. The article concludes by stressing the significance of this effort for future health services and clinical research, and the importance of consulting end-users--patients, providers, payers and policy-makers--in the process of defining research questions and approaches to them.

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

The 2016 Academic Emergency Medicine Consensus Conference, Shared Decision Making in the Emergency Department: Development of a Policy-relevant Patient-centered Research Agenda May 10, 2016, New Orleans, LA.

PubMed

Grudzen, Corita R; Anderson, Jana R; Carpenter, Christopher R; Hess, Erik P

2016-12-01

Shared decision making in emergency medicine has the potential to improve the quality, safety, and outcomes of emergency department (ED) patients. Given that the ED is the gateway to care for patients with a variety of illnesses and injuries and the safety net for patients otherwise unable to access care, shared decision making in the ED is relevant to numerous disciplines and the interests of the United States (U.S.) public. On May 10, 2016 the 16th annual Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM) consensus conference, "Shared Decision Making: Development of a Policy-Relevant Patient-Centered Research Agenda" was held in New Orleans, Louisiana. During this one-day conference clinicians, researchers, policy-makers, patient and caregiver representatives, funding agency representatives, trainees, and content experts across many areas of medicine interacted to define high priority areas for research in 1 of 6 domains: 1) diagnostic testing; 2) policy, 3) dissemination/implementation and education, 4) development and testing of shared decision making approaches and tools in practice, 5) palliative care and geriatrics, and 6) vulnerable populations and limited health literacy. This manuscript describes the current state of shared decision making in the ED context, provides an overview of the conference planning process, the aims of the conference, the focus of each respective breakout session, the roles of patient and caregiver representatives and an overview of the conference agenda. The results of this conference published in this issue of AEM provide an essential summary of the future research priorities for shared decision making to increase quality of care and patient-centered outcomes. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Education and the Politics of Austerity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florio, David H.

1979-01-01

The evolution of congressional support for educational programs and the impact of the present trend toward financial restraint are reviewed. Research, evaluation, and policy studies will help influence future decisions, although other factors such as the economy and interest group pressures will affect support. (MH)

Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zinaman, Owen; Miller, Mackay; Adil, Ali

This report summarizes key forces driving transformation in the power sector around the world, presents a framework for evaluating decisions regarding extent and pace of change, and defines pathways for transformation. Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Three approaches to policy and technology decision-making can guide these transformations: adaptive, reconstructive, and evolutionary. Within these approaches, we explore the five pathways that have emerged as viable modelsmore » for power system transformation.« less

From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

PubMed

Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

2017-01-01

In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Implications for Downstream Riparian Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Block, P. J.; Hammond, M.; King, A.

2013-12-01

Ethiopia has begun seriously developing their significant hydropower potential by launching construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River to facilitate local and regional growth. Although this has required substantial planning on Ethiopia's part, no policy dictating the reservoir filling rate strategy has been publicly issued. This filling stage will have clear implications on downstream flows in Sudan and Egypt, complicated by evaporative losses, climate variability, and climate change. In this study, various filling policies and future climate states are simultaneously explored to infer potential streamflow reductions at Lake Nasser, providing regional decision-makers with a set of plausible, justifiable, and comparable outcomes. Schematic of the model framework Box plots of 2017-2032 percent change in annual average streamflow at Lake Nasser for each filling policy constructed from the 100 time-series and weighted precipitation changes. All values are relative to the no dam policy and no changes to future precipitation.

Science, Policy, and Rationality in a Partisan Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, J. W.

2017-12-01

Science plays an essential role in public policy by outlining the factual foundations of policy decisions. Political partisans, however, often use science the way drunkards use lampposts: for support rather than illumination. Thus science can become a political football, with partisans dismissing or misrepresenting scientific findings that conflict with their political views. Presenting and defending science in a highly charged political environment is therefore challenging. Here I argue that scientists can most effectively speak out, not as activists supporting particular political causes, but instead as advocates for a fundamentally rational public discourse, one that starts from the facts - not from whatever one might choose to believe - and then explores how society should respond. Recognizing the distinction between facts and values, and respecting their different roles in the policy process, are essential not only for the future of science, but also for the future of democratic institutions in the broadest sense.

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

On policies to regulate long-term risks from hazardous waste disposal sites under both intergenerational equity and intragenerational equity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Zhongbin

In recent years, it has been recognized that there is a need for a general philosophic policy to guide the regulation of societal activities that involve long-term and very long-term risks. Theses societal activities not only include the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes and global warming, but also include the disposal of non-radioactive carcinogens that never decay, such as arsenic, nickel, etc. In the past, attention has been focused on nuclear wastes. However, there has been international recognition that large quantities of non-radioactive wastes are being disposed of with little consideration of their long-term risks. The objectives of this dissertation are to present the significant long-term risks posed by non-radioactive carcinogens through case studies; develop the conceptual decision framework for setting the long-term risk policy; and illustrate that certain factors, such as discount rate, can significantly influence the results of long-term risk analysis. Therefore, the proposed decision-making framework can be used to systematically study the important policy questions on long-term risk regulations, and then subsequently help the decision-maker to make informed decisions. Regulatory disparities between high-level radioactive wastes and non-radioactive wastes are summarized. Long-term risk is rarely a consideration in the regulation of disposal of non-radioactive hazardous chemicals; and when it is, the matter has been handled in a somewhat perfunctory manner. Case studies of long-term risks are conducted for five Superfund sites that are contaminated with one or more non-radioactive carcinogens. Under the same assumptions used for the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, future subsistence farmers would be exposed to significant individual risks, in some cases with lifetime fatality risk equal to unity. The important policy questions on long-term risk regulation are identified, and the conceptual decision-making framework to regulate long-term risk is presented. The results of decision tree analysis of cleanup alternatives for the Crystal Chemical site indicate that discount rate has profound impact on the results of the analysis and significant implication with regard to intergenerational equity. It is expected that other policy factors could have similar impacts. There is a need to use the proposed decision-making framework to systemically study those factors and make rational policy decisions accordingly.

Evidence-based health policy-making, hospital funding and health insurance.

PubMed

Palmer, G R

2000-02-07

An important goal of health services research is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of health services through a quantitative and evidence-based approach. There are many limitations to the use of evidence in health policy-making, such as differences in what counts as evidence between the various disciplines involved, and a heavy reliance on theory in social science disciplines. Community and interest group values, ideological positions and political assessments inevitably intrude into government health policy-making. The importance of these factors is accentuated by the current absence of evidence on the impact of policy options for improving the health status of the community, and ensuring that efficiency and equity objectives for health services are also met. Analysis of recent hospital funding and private health insurance initiatives shows the limited role of evidence in the making of these decisions. Decision-making about health policy might be improved in the future by initiatives such as greater exposure of health professionals to educational inputs with a policy focus; increased contribution of doctors to health services research via special postgraduate programs; and establishing a national, multidisciplinary centre for health policy research and evaluation.

The politics of participation in watershed modeling.

PubMed

Korfmacher, K S

2001-02-01

While researchers and decision-makers increasingly recognize the importance of public participation in environmental decision-making, there is less agreement about how to involve the public. One of the most controversial issues is how to involve citizens in producing scientific information. Although this question is relevant to many areas of environmental policy, it has come to the fore in watershed management. Increasingly, the public is becoming involved in the sophisticated computer modeling efforts that have been developed to inform watershed management decisions. These models typically have been treated as technical inputs to the policy process. However, model-building itself involves numerous assumptions, judgments, and decisions that are relevant to the public. This paper examines the politics of public involvement in watershed modeling efforts and proposes five guidelines for good practice for such efforts. Using these guidelines, I analyze four cases in which different approaches to public involvement in the modeling process have been attempted and make recommendations for future efforts to involve communities in watershed modeling. Copyright 2001 Springer-Verlag

Bringing the "social" into sociohydrology: Conservation policy support in the Central Great Plains of Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, Matthew R.; Bergtold, Jason S.; Heier Stamm, Jessica L.; Caldas, Marcellus M.; Ramsey, Steven M.

2017-08-01

Identifying means of empirically modeling the human component of a coupled, human-water system becomes critically important to further advances in sociohydrology. We develop a social-psychological model of environmental decision making that addresses four key challenges of incorporating social science into integrated models. We use the model to explain preferences for three conservation policies designed to conserve and protect water resources and aquatic ecosystems in the Smoky Hill River Basin, a semiarid agricultural region in the Central U.S. Great Plains. Further, we compare the model's capacity to explain policy preferences among members of two groups in the River Basin: agricultural producers and members of nonfarming communities. We find that financial obligation is the strongest and most consistent explanation of support for conservation policies among members of both groups. We also find that policy support is grounded in cultural values—deeply held ideas about right and wrong. Environmental values are particularly important explanations of policy support. The constellations of values invoked to make decisions about policies, and the social-psychological pathways linking values to policy support, can vary across policies and types of agents (farmers and nonfarmers). We discuss the implications of the results for future research in sociohydrology.

Addressing the limits to adaptation across four damage--response systems

EPA Science Inventory

Our ability to adapt to climate change is not boundless, and previous modeling shows that capacity limited adaptation will play a policy-significant role in future decisions about climate change. These limits are delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages beg...

Report of the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission : transportation for tomorrow.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

The surface transportation system of the : United States is at a crossroads. The future : of our Nations well-being, vitality, and global : economic leadership is at stake. We must take : significant, decisive action now to create and : sustain th...

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of groundwater in aguanaval and chupaderos aquifers (Mexico)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adequate regional groundwater assessment studies are essential for the correct groundwater management by policy/decision makers; increased use of groundwater resources and drought have led to concern about the future availability of groundwater to meet domestic, agricultural, industrial, and environ...

Introduction of a Science Policy Course at the University of Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, S.; Parsons, D.

2012-12-01

In modern society, science and policy are two processes that have a symbiotic relationship to each other; wherein policy dictates the direction of science while science shapes the future of policy. Although the policy side is often ignored in scientific environments, the rate of scientific advancement is heavily influenced by policy. Science policy is very different from the conduct of science itself and future scientists need to be aware of the issues and factors that dictate the present and future direction of science. Based on the intricate relationship between science and policy, it is essential to introduce an overview of the policy process to future scientists and decision makers. In the context of climate change, policy implications are extensive and critical owing to their large socio-economic impacts. Hence, knowledge of the policy process is even more relevant to earth scientists. In this regard, the proposal to start an introductory course in science policy is currently being discussed in the department of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. If such a course is approved, an interactive graduate level class will be introduced for students pursuing a career in science. Such a course will be cross- disciplinary and will be offered to a wide audience across the university. Since the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) Summer Policy Colloquium has been a very successful program in educating scientists about the policy process, a format similar to the colloquium may be adopted. The primary topics will include the understanding of policy fundamentals, effective communication, ethics and integrity in the conduct of scientific research, executive leadership in science and the responsibilities of a scientific leader, impact of science on globalization and international diplomacy, etc. The AMS policy program office will be consulted to help design the course curriculum. An overview of the steps involved in introducing the class will be presented at the meeting along with the latest course curriculum.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Assessment: Give Me a Place to Stand, and I Will Move the Earth

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

Theory , and Policy Keywords: C2 agility, bounded rationality, heuristics, uncertainty, assessment Authors: Erik Bjurström Mälardalen...of making decisions. Although the notion of bounded rationality and its associated theory rendered Herbert Simon the 1978 Nobel prize in economics...future and represents a more structuralistic approach. While making predictions about the future is often necessary it is not feasible as a general

A Markovian state-space framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafleur, Jarret M.

The past decades have seen the state of the art in aerospace system design progress from a scope of simple optimization to one including robustness, with the objective of permitting a single system to perform well even in off-nominal future environments. Integrating flexibility, or the capability to easily modify a system after it has been fielded in response to changing environments, into system design represents a further step forward. One challenge in accomplishing this rests in that the decision-maker must consider not only the present system design decision, but also sequential future design and operation decisions. Despite extensive interest in the topic, the state of the art in designing flexibility into aerospace systems, and particularly space systems, tends to be limited to analyses that are qualitative, deterministic, single-objective, and/or limited to consider a single future time period. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a stochastic, multi-objective, and multi-period framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions. Central to the framework are five steps. First, system configuration options are identified and costs of switching from one configuration to another are compiled into a cost transition matrix. Second, probabilities that demand on the system will transition from one mission to another are compiled into a mission demand Markov chain. Third, one performance matrix for each design objective is populated to describe how well the identified system configurations perform in each of the identified mission demand environments. The fourth step employs multi-period decision analysis techniques, including Markov decision processes from the field of operations research, to find efficient paths and policies a decision-maker may follow. The final step examines the implications of these paths and policies for the primary goal of informing initial system selection. Overall, this thesis unifies state-centric concepts of flexibility from economics and engineering literature with sequential decision-making techniques from operations research. The end objective of this thesis’ framework and its supporting tools is to enable selection of the next-generation space systems today, tailored to decision-maker budget and performance preferences, that will be best able to adapt and perform in a future of changing environments and requirements. Following extensive theoretical development, the framework and its steps are applied to space system planning problems of (1) DARPA-motivated multiple- or distributed-payload satellite selection and (2) NASA human space exploration architecture selection.

DECISION-MAKING ALIGNED WITH RAPID-CYCLE EVALUATION IN HEALTH CARE.

PubMed

Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Shrank, William H; Ruhl, Michael; Maclure, Malcolm

2015-01-01

Availability of real-time electronic healthcare data provides new opportunities for rapid-cycle evaluation (RCE) of health technologies, including healthcare delivery and payment programs. We aim to align decision-making processes with stages of RCE to optimize the usefulness and impact of rapid results. Rational decisions about program adoption depend on program effect size in relation to externalities, including implementation cost, sustainability, and likelihood of broad adoption. Drawing on case studies and experience from drug safety monitoring, we examine how decision makers have used scientific evidence on complex interventions in the past. We clarify how RCE alters the nature of policy decisions; develop the RAPID framework for synchronizing decision-maker activities with stages of RCE; and provide guidelines on evidence thresholds for incremental decision-making. In contrast to traditional evaluations, RCE provides early evidence on effectiveness and facilitates a stepped approach to decision making in expectation of future regularly updated evidence. RCE allows for identification of trends in adjusted effect size. It supports adapting a program in midstream in response to interim findings, or adapting the evaluation strategy to identify true improvements earlier. The 5-step RAPID approach that utilizes the cumulating evidence of program effectiveness over time could increase policy-makers' confidence in expediting decisions. RCE enables a step-wise approach to HTA decision-making, based on gradually emerging evidence, reducing delays in decision-making processes after traditional one-time evaluations.

Fort Collins Science Center: Policy Analysis and Science Assistance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Berton L.

2004-01-01

PASA's mission is to integrate biological, social, and economic research so that resource managers can use the resulting information to make informed decisions and resolve resource management conflicts. PASA scientists pursue and conduct scientific analyses that help agencies and Native American tribes to (1) identify impending policy controversies and areas where social and natural science research is needed to address future policy questions; (2) develop methods and approaches to assist researchers in preparing scientific evidence; (3) assess habitat alteration in a manner consistent with policy needs; and (4) evaluate policy options. Branch scientists also evaluate policy options (e.g., effects of different land treatments, fish and wildlife management practices, or visitor/recreation management practices) in response to specific questions faced by policymakers and managers.

Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

2017-05-01

It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

Learning by doing in practice: a roundtable discussion about stakeholder engagement in implementation research.

PubMed

Arwal, Said Habib; Aulakh, Bhupinder Kaur; Bumba, Ahmed; Siddula, Akshita

2017-12-28

Researchers and policy-makers alike increasingly recognise the importance of engaging diverse perspectives in implementation research. This roundtable discussion presents the experiences and perspectives of three decision-makers regarding the benefits and challenges of their engagement in implementation research. The first perspective comes from a rural district medical officer from Uganda and touches on the success of using data as evidence in a low-resource setting. The second perspective is from an Afghani Ministry of Health expert who used a community-based approach to improving healthcare services in remote regions. Finally, the third perspective highlights the successes and trials of a policy-maker from India who offers advice on how to grow the relationship between decision-makers and researchers. Overall, the stakeholders in this roundtable discussion saw important benefits to their engagement in research. In order to facilitate greater engagement in the future, they advise on closer dialogue between researchers and policy-makers and supporting the development of capacity to stimulate and facilitate engagement in research and the use of evidence in decision-making.

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

Mobilization and Defense Management Technical Reports Series. Manpower Mobilization Policy. Impact of Reserve and Retirees Call-up on Federal Government Agencies.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

active reserve. However, questions still persist on the level within the agencies at which key employee decisions are made, and the seriousness with...the reservist member’s service. The service will make a decision as to whether the I I% -, -. ° . - ,V,; Jt...POSITIONS O CUPIED BY MILITARY RETIREES uCmmission in Civil Rights Consumer Product Safety Comiission n Mity Futures Trading Commission Defense

Past, present and future challenges in health care priority setting.

PubMed

Hall, William; Williams, Iestyn; Smith, Neale; Gold, Marthe; Coast, Joanna; Kapiriri, Lydia; Danis, M; Mitton, Craig

2018-05-21

Purpose Current conditions have intensified the need for health systems to engage in the difficult task of priority setting. As the search for a "magic bullet" is replaced by an appreciation for the interplay between evidence, interests, culture, and outcomes, progress in relation to these dimensions requires assessment of achievements to date and identification of areas where knowledge and practice require attention most urgently. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach An international survey was administered to experts in the area of priority setting. The survey consisted of open-ended questions focusing on notable achievements, policy and practice challenges, and areas for future research in the discipline of priority setting. It was administered online between February and March of 2015. Findings "Decision-making frameworks" and "Engagement" were the two most frequently mentioned notable achievements. "Priority setting in practice" and "Awareness and education" were the two most frequently mentioned policy and practical challenges. "Priority setting in practice" and "Engagement" were the two most frequently mentioned areas in need of future research. Research limitations/implications Sampling bias toward more developed countries. Future study could use findings to create a more concise version to distribute more broadly. Practical implications Globally, these findings could be used as a platform for discussion and decision making related to policy, practice, and research in this area. Originality/value Whilst this study reaffirmed the continued importance of many longstanding themes in the priority setting literature, it is possible to also discern clear shifts in emphasis as the discipline progresses in response to new challenges.

Negotiating the Digital Library: Document Delivery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobs, Neil; Morris, Anne

1999-01-01

The eLib-funded FIDDO (Focused Investigation of Document Delivery Options) project provides library managers/others with information to support policy decisions. Senior libraries were interviewed about the future of document delivery and interviews were analyzed with the support of NUD*IST (Nonnumerical Unstructured Data by Indexing, Searching and…

A Long-Range Approach to Instructional Leadership.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDermott, Donald F.

1984-01-01

In Anchorage, Alaska, aspiring principals are getting on-the-job experience through a two-year intern program that facilitates long range planning by enabling the district to test and mold its future administrators. Interns serve as administrative assistants, troubleshooters, and participates in instructional supervision and policy decision. (TE)

Resisting Consumerist Rationalities in Higher Vocational Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puaca, Goran; Theandersson, Christer; Carlén, Margareta

2017-01-01

Swedish higher education policy is currently moving toward consumption ideals that focus on promoting the efficiency and economic viability of student choices. This paper scrutinizes students' practical considerations when making decisions regarding their education and future occupations and the choice rationalities and motives that these reflect.…

Governing Body Committees | Office of Cancer Clinical Proteomics Research

Cancer.gov

OCCPR relies on governing body committees to provide objective and expert advice on the coordination and future direction of the CPTAC Program. The Steering Committee (SC) consists of awardees and OCCPR leadership, who formulate, coordinate, and oversee strategic decisions and policies regarding consortium-wide activities.

Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Keith J.

2002-01-01

This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.

Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

2009-12-01

Based on a series of international scientific assessments, climate change has been presented to society as a major problem that needs urgently to be tackled. The science that underpins these assessments has been pre-dominantly from the realm of the natural sciences and central to this framing have been ‘projections’ of future climate change (and its impacts on environment and society) under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and using a variety of climate model predictions with embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision makers need accurate and increasingly precise assessments of future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. If true, this claim places a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales; such predictions therefore become indispensable, and indeed a prerequisite for, effective adaptation decision-making. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? If so, this may impose a serious and intractable limit on adaptation. This paper proceeds in three sections. It first gathers evidence of claims that climate prediction is necessary for adaptation decision-making. This evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy in a number of different countries. The second part discusses the challenges of climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide accurate and precise predictions of future climate relevant for adaptation (usually at the local/regional level). Section three discusses whether these limits to future foresight represent a limit to adaptation, arguing that effective adaptation need not be limited by a general inability to predict future climate. Given the deep uncertainties involved in climate prediction (and even more so in the prediction of climate impacts) and given that climate is usually only one factor in decisions aimed at climate adaptation, we conclude that the ‘predict and provide’ approach to science in support of climate change adaptation is largely flawed. We consider other important areas of public policy fraught with uncertainty - e.g. earthquake risk, national security, public health - where such a ‘predict and provide’ approach is not attempted. Instead of relying on an approach which has climate prediction (and consequent risk assessment) at its heart - which because of the associated epistemological limits to prediction will consequently act as an apparent limit to adaptation - we need to view adaptation differently, in a manner that opens up options for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest an approach which examines the robustness of adaptation strategies/policies/activities to the myriad of uncertainties that face us in the future, only one of which is the state of climate.

Analysis of flight equipment purchasing practices of representative air carriers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The process through which representative air carriers decide whether or not to purchase flight equipment was investigated as well as their practices and policies in retiring surplus aircraft. An analysis of the flight equipment investment decision process in ten airlines shows that for the airline industry as a whole, the flight equipment investment decision is in a state of transition from a wholly informal process in earliest years to a much more organized and structured process in the future. Individual air carriers are in different stages with respect to the formality and sophistication associated with the flight equipment investment decision.

Senior housing in Sweden: a new concept for aging in place.

PubMed

Henning, Cecilia; Ahnby, Ulla; Osterstrom, Stefan

2009-01-01

Demographic projections of elder care in Sweden necessitate new and creative approaches to accommodate this rapidly growing population. This article describes a unique aging-in-place care and housing policy initiative for the elderly. Using a case example in Eksjo, Sweden, the authors used a future workshop (FW) method to help seniors plan their future housing in the community. The FW is based on a collective democratic process involving full participation, open communication, organizational development, and leadership. The process steps of the three-stage FW method are described. Results indicated that empowerment, collaboration, autonomy, social education, and decision making can be achieved in a community-network-based policy model. This demonstrates the devolution of national policy and how, at the grass roots level, local participation and public accountability can take root. Devolution created an opportunity for creatively addressing local needs.

Using deliberative techniques to engage the community in policy development.

PubMed

Gregory, Judy; Hartz-Karp, Janette; Watson, Rebecca

2008-07-16

This paper examines work in deliberative approaches to community engagement used in Western Australia by the Department of Planning and Infrastructure and other planning and infrastructure agencies between 2001 and 2005, and considers whether the techniques could be applied to the development of health policy in Australia. Deliberative processes were used in WA to address specific planning and infrastructure problems. Using deliberative techniques, community participants contributed to joint decision making and policy development. Outcomes from deliberative processes were seriously considered by the Minister and used to influence policy decisions. In many cases, the recommendations generated through deliberative processes were fully adopted by the Minister. The experiences in WA demonstrate that deliberative engagement processes can be successfully implemented by government and can be used to guide policy. The techniques can be adapted to suit the context and issues experienced by a portfolio, and the skills required to conduct deliberative processes can be fostered amongst the portfolio's staff. Health policy makers may be able to learn from the experiences in WA, and adopt approaches to community engagement that allow for informed deliberation and debate in the community about the future of Australia's health system.

Factors Required for Successful Future Research in Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-06-01

to democracy and a market economy. The characteristics that this transition has in common with a complex system operating in its chaotic regime i...the Center for Science and Industrial Policy, Moscow. 4 T. J. Gordon and R. Pratt ! r • � .... 11ral Scanning, The� Hill Encyclopedia of Market ...foresight successful if it helped a firm beat a competitor or to secure greater market share. Some organizations rely on external futures

Endogenous fertility, Ricardian equivalence, and debt management policy.

PubMed

Lapan, H E; Enders, W

1990-03-01

This paper develops a model in which dynastic families optimally determine fertility. Government debt represents a tax on future generations and on childbearing; the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis does not hold. Debt is welfare reducing in that it distorts the fertility decision. An increase in government debt induces a decline in fertility and an increase in the steady state capital/labor ratio. If a government inherits an existing stock of debt, the 1st-best policy is to eliminate the debt immediately. In other situations the optimal debt management policy will not, in general, entail a total elimination of the debt.

New forecasting methodology indicates more disease and earlier mortality ahead for today's younger Americans.

PubMed

Reither, Eric N; Olshansky, S Jay; Yang, Yang

2011-08-01

Traditional methods of projecting population health statistics, such as estimating future death rates, can give inaccurate results and lead to inferior or even poor policy decisions. A new "three-dimensional" method of forecasting vital health statistics is more accurate because it takes into account the delayed effects of the health risks being accumulated by today's younger generations. Applying this forecasting technique to the US obesity epidemic suggests that future death rates and health care expenditures could be far worse than currently anticipated. We suggest that public policy makers adopt this more robust forecasting tool and redouble efforts to develop and implement effective obesity-related prevention programs and interventions.

Exploring the Frontier of the Future: How Kentucky Will Live, Learn and Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Childress, Michael T., Ed.; Sebastian, Billie M., Ed.; Schirmer, Peter, Ed.; Smith-Mello, Michal, Ed.

This report provides Kentucky policymakers with information on economic, educational, demographic, and environmental trends and issues with implications for policy decisions. Following an introduction, "Past as Prologue" (James C. Klotter), the 28 chapters are presented in 5 sections: "The White Picket Fence: Trends Affecting the…

Uncertainty considerations in calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic and water quality models (HWQMs) are increasingly used to support decisions on the state of various environmental issues and policy directions on present and future scenarios, at scales varying from watershed to continental levels. Uncertainty associated with such models may impact the ca...

Toward 2000. Trends Report II: Elementary-Secondary Projections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Press, Harold L.

Comprehensive, systematic planning provides the overall direction for education through the development of policies and objectives. An understanding of demographic, social, and economic trends is necessary for educators to make decisions for the future. The 1986 demographic forecasts for the province of Newfoundland are updated in this report,…

Critical Thinking for Natural Resource, Agricultural, and Environmental Ethics Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Courtney; Burbach, Mark E.; Matkin, Gina S.; Flores, Kevin

2009-01-01

Future decision makers in natural resource fields will be required to make judgments on issues that lack clear solutions and with information complicated by ethical challenges. Therefore, natural resource, environmental, and agricultural professionals must possess the ability to think critically about the consequences of policy, economic systems,…

Educational Inequalities and Ukrainian Orphans' Future Pathways: Social Reproduction or Transformation through the Hidden Curriculum?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Korzh, Alla

2013-01-01

This qualitative multi-site case study, situated in the context of Ukraine's post-Soviet political economy, examined how orphanage educators' expectations and beliefs about orphans' academic abilities and potential, curriculum, peer relationships, and education policy shaped orphans' post-secondary education decisions and trajectories. Examination…

Immunizing Children: A Qualitative Analysis of Future Parental Decision Making.

PubMed

Espeleta, Hannah C; Beasley, Lana O; Ridings, Leigh E; Smith, Tyler J; Shields, Jennifer D

2017-10-01

Vaccinations are considered one of public health's greatest accomplishments. Despite evidence for vaccine effectiveness, uptake levels are still well below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines. The immunization decision-making process for parents is complex and depends on factors associated with knowledge and experiences. This qualitative study sought to expand on a previous decision-making model for immunizations by examining how individuals receive vaccination information, determining the role of experience in influencing decisions, and understanding how young adults might locate vaccination information in the future. Three focus groups were conducted with 29 undergraduate students without children. Results suggest that young adults exhibit an awareness of information regarding vaccine use and effectiveness, value doctor opinions and recommendations, and desire more robust research on vaccinations. Implications of these results include the importance of (1) disseminating vaccination education to young adults, (2) enhancing consistency/trust between medical professionals and youth, and (3) expanding public policy to increase vaccine uptake.

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Infusing Science into Politics and Policy: The Importance of Legislators as an Audience in Mental Health Policy Dissemination Research.

PubMed

Purtle, Jonathan; Brownson, Ross C; Proctor, Enola K

2017-03-01

Legislators (i.e., elected Senators and House Representatives at the federal- and state-level) are a critically important dissemination audience because they shape the architecture of the US mental health system through budgetary and regulatory decisions. In this Point of View, we argue that legislators are a neglected audience in mental health dissemination research. We synthesize relevant research, discuss its potential implications for dissemination efforts, identify challenges, and outline areas for future study.

Economic evaluation of preventive dental programs: what can they tell us?

PubMed

Morgan, Mike; Mariño, Rodrigo; Wright, Clive; Bailey, Denise; Hopcraft, Matthew

2012-10-01

The role of public health program planners is to determine the effectiveness of public health programs, what recommendations should be made, what future initiatives should be taken, and what policies should be developed. At a basic level, to choose between competing alternatives, two characteristics of an intervention must be considered; these are its outcome and its cost. Based on cost and outcome, planners must select the option that offers the most advantages. Economic evaluation is commonly adopted by decision makers in the health sector to investigate the effectiveness of public health programs and to help plan future initiatives. Economic evaluation assists decision makers who must weigh the information it provides in the context of many and often competing options. In this way, an economic evaluation is an aid to decision making rather than the decision itself. Economic evaluation is becoming essential for informed decision making, with potential implications for public health policy and practice and for clinical practice too. While economic evaluations are commonly used in decision-making processes about health programs, few examples exist in the oral health literature. In the case of preventive oral health programs, economic analysis is often difficult, largely because it makes demands on epidemiological and demographic data that are hard to meet. This study will address the concepts and tools required to conduct economic evaluations of prevention programs. The emphasis will be on oral health and preventive dental programs, although the concepts presented could be useful for other public health programs by practitioners and managers with the aim of producing effective and efficient oral health programs. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The future of health technology assessment in healthcare decision making in Asia.

PubMed

Yang, Bong-Min

2009-01-01

Most countries have healthcare resource constraints and it is easy to identify new health technologies as an area in need of resource management, particularly given that new health technologies usually increase rather than save costs. Resource constraints are even more noticeable in Asia than in other regions, with a comparatively greater speed of population aging and the development of health security systems. The healthcare industry and policy makers in Asia generally understand that rationing in healthcare delivery is inevitable and have come to accept health technology assessment (HTA) as a policy option. The HTA policy framework is slowly penetrating Asia; South Korea was the first country to regulate the use of pharmacoeconomic evidence in drug reimbursement decision making. The South Korean HTA policy was initially a surprise in Asia in that the policy was suddenly introduced with a short period of preparation, but industry, researchers and policy makers both in- and outside of South Korea have come to accept it as necessary and logical. Thailand and Taiwan have also taken steps towards using pharmacoeconomic evidence in HTA, while other Asian countries are planning to implement such policies. However, it could be some time before a legitimate pharmacoeconomic-based HTA policy is actually implemented in each country, and the course of action will vary depending on the policy culture, healthcare system and public trust in bureaucracy of each country.

Bereaved donor families' experiences of organ and tissue donation, and perceived influences on their decision making.

PubMed

Sque, Magi; Walker, Wendy; Long-Sutehall, Tracy; Morgan, Myfanwy; Randhawa, Gurch; Rodney, Amanda

2018-06-01

To elicit bereaved families' experiences of organ and tissue donation. A specific objective was to determine families' perceptions of how their experiences influenced donation decision-making. Retrospective, qualitative interviews were undertaken with 43 participants of 31 donor families to generate rich, informative data. Participant recruitment was via 10 National Health Service Trusts, representative of five regional organ donation services in the UK. Twelve families agreed to DBD, 18 agreed to DCD, 1 unknown. Participants' responses were contextualised using a temporal framework of 'The Past', which represented families' prior knowledge, experience, attitudes, beliefs, and intentions toward organ donation; 'The Present', which incorporated the moment in time when families experienced the potential for donation; and 'The Future', which corresponded to expectations and outcomes arising from the donation decision. Temporally interwoven experiences appeared to influence families' decisions to donate the organs of their deceased relative for transplantation. The influence of temporality on donation-decision making is worthy of consideration in the planning of future education, policy, practice, and research for improved rates of family consent to donation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future: Modeling Social Unrest in Karachi, Pakistan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olson, Jarrod; Kurzrok, Andrew J.; Hund, Gretchen

Social unrest represents a major challenge for policy makers around the globe, as it can quickly escalate from small scale disturbances to highly public protests, riots and even civil war. This research was motivated by a need to understand social instability and to unpack the comments made during a spring 2013 conference hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security and the U.S. Institute for Peace, where policymakers noted that models considering social instability are often not suitable for decision-making. This analysis shows that existing state level models of instability could be improved in spatial scale to themore » city level, even without significantly improved data access. Better data would make this analysis more complete and likely improve the quality of the model. Another challenge with incorporating modeling into decision-making is the need to understand uncertainty in a model. Policy makers are frequently tasked with making decisions without a clear outcome, so characterization of uncertainty is critical. This report describes the work and findings of the project. It took place in three phases: a literature review of social stability research, a “hindsight scan” that looked at historical data, and a “foresight scan” looking at future scenarios.« less

Flood risk assessment and robust management under deep uncertainty: Application to Dhaka City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mojtahed, Vahid; Gain, Animesh Kumar; Giupponi, Carlo

2014-05-01

The socio-economic changes as well as climatic changes have been the main drivers of uncertainty in environmental risk assessment and in particular flood. The level of future uncertainty that researchers face when dealing with problems in a future perspective with focus on climate change is known as Deep Uncertainty (also known as Knightian uncertainty), since nobody has already experienced and undergone those changes before and our knowledge is limited to the extent that we have no notion of probabilities, and therefore consolidated risk management approaches have limited potential.. Deep uncertainty is referred to circumstances that analysts and experts do not know or parties to decision making cannot agree on: i) the appropriate models describing the interaction among system variables, ii) probability distributions to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the model 3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes. The need thus emerges to assist policy-makers by providing them with not a single and optimal solution to the problem at hand, such as crisp estimates for the costs of damages of natural hazards considered, but instead ranges of possible future costs, based on the outcomes of ensembles of assessment models and sets of plausible scenarios. Accordingly, we need to substitute optimality as a decision criterion with robustness. Under conditions of deep uncertainty, the decision-makers do not have statistical and mathematical bases to identify optimal solutions, while instead they should prefer to implement "robust" decisions that perform relatively well over all conceivable outcomes out of all future unknown scenarios. Under deep uncertainty, analysts cannot employ probability theory or other statistics that usually can be derived from observed historical data and therefore, we turn to non-statistical measures such as scenario analysis. We construct several plausible scenarios with each scenario being a full description of what may happen in future and based on a meaningful synthesis of parameters' values with control of their correlations for maintaining internal consistencies. This paper aims at incorporating a set of data mining and sampling tools to assess uncertainty of model outputs under future climatic and socio-economic changes for Dhaka city and providing a decision support system for robust flood management and mitigation policies. After constructing an uncertainty matrix to identify the main sources of uncertainty for Dhaka City, we identify several hazard and vulnerability maps based on future climatic and socio-economic scenarios. The vulnerability of each flood management alternative under different set of scenarios is determined and finally the robustness of each plausible solution considered is defined based on the above assessment.

New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

2010-12-01

Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act to encourage the development of multidisciplinary educational programs on the national security implications of climate change. 2. Federal agencies should establish funding programs to encourage producers to provide scientific information tailored to consumer needs. 3. The Department of State should appoint climate advisors to serve within the regional bureaus and on the policy and planning staff. 4. Federal agencies, the Department of Education, and the National Science Foundation should develop programs to stimulate new interdisciplinary research partnerships and training of a new generation of interdisciplinary climate change risk thinkers, assessors and managers. 5. Federal agencies should encourage Senior Executive Service decision makers to participate in science policy certi¬fication workshops and include science and technology policy as a core curricu¬lum component of the SES Federal Candidate Development Program. These recommendations are described in detail in a report published by the Center for a New American Security: Rogers, W. and J. Gulledge (2010) Lost in Translation: Closing the Gap Between Climate Science and National Security Policy (available online: http://cnas.org/node/4391)

Framing scenarios of binational water policy with a tool to visualize, quantify and valuate changes in ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Villarreal, Miguel L.; Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Frisvold, George; Labiosa, William

2013-01-01

In the Santa Cruz Watershed, located on the Arizona-Sonora portion of the U.S.-Mexico border, an international wastewater treatment plant treats wastewater from cities on both sides of the border, before discharging it into the river in Arizona. These artificial flows often subsidize important perennial surface water ecosystems in the region. An explicit understanding of the benefits of maintaining instream flow for present and future generations requires the ability to assess and understand the important trade-offs implicit in water-resource management decisions. In this paper, we outline an approach for modeling and visualizing impacts of management decisions in terms of rare terrestrial and aquatic wildlife, vegetation, surface water, groundwater recharge, real-estate values and socio-environmental vulnerable communities. We identify and quantify ecosystem services and model the potential reduction in effluent discharge to the U.S. that is under scrutiny by binational water policy makers and of concern to stakeholders. Results of service provisioning are presented, and implications for policy makers and resource managers are discussed. This paper presents a robust ecosystem services assessment of multiple scenarios of watershed management as a means to discern eco-hydrological responses and consider their potential values for future generations living in the borderlands.

Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.

PubMed

Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco

2016-05-01

Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Development of Decision Aids for Counter-Terrorist Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

I.D. AM OLT of PLO A14YOLP of PLO Agua Sandinist TPLF of Turkey 0 TERORISTS 3 4 25 2 GROUP CAPABILITY Unknown Unknown Auto Weapons Sten Gun "DEADLINE...of any terrorist group to different situ - ations are not independent, but reflect a coherent policy regarding violence and willingness to negotiate...importance in this stage is the need to deter future terrorist activities with- out jeopardizing our credibility in future negotiation situ - ations. I8

Introduction of New Vaccines: Decision-making Process in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I.; Koehlmoos, Tracey P.

2013-01-01

The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern in the country. Rapid action on the application of GAVI support and less time taken by the Government in processing the implementation and administrative work may expedite the introduction of new vaccines in future in this country. PMID:23930339

Introduction of new vaccines: decision-making process in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I; Koehlmoos, Tracey P

2013-06-01

The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern in the country. Rapid action on the application of GAVI support and less time taken by the Government in processing the implementation and administrative work may expedite the introduction of new vaccines in future in this country.

Community trust reduces myopic decisions of low-income individuals

PubMed Central

Jachimowicz, Jon M.; Chafik, Salah; Munrat, Sabeth; Prabhu, Jaideep C.; Weber, Elke U.

2017-01-01

Why do the poor make shortsighted choices in decisions that involve delayed payoffs? Foregoing immediate rewards for larger, later rewards requires that decision makers (i) believe future payoffs will occur and (ii) are not forced to take the immediate reward out of financial need. Low-income individuals may be both less likely to believe future payoffs will occur and less able to forego immediate rewards due to higher financial need; they may thus appear to discount the future more heavily. We propose that trust in one’s community—which, unlike generalized trust, we find does not covary with levels of income—can partially offset the effects of low income on myopic decisions. Specifically, we hypothesize that low-income individuals with higher community trust make less myopic intertemporal decisions because they believe their community will buffer, or cushion, against their financial need. In archival data and laboratory studies, we find that higher levels of community trust among low-income individuals lead to less myopic decisions. We also test our predictions with a 2-y community trust intervention in rural Bangladesh involving 121 union councils (the smallest rural administrative and local government unit) and find that residents in treated union councils show higher levels of community trust and make less myopic intertemporal choices than residents in control union councils. We discuss the implications of these results for the design of domestic and global policy interventions to help the poor make decisions that could alleviate poverty. PMID:28400516

Assessing and forecasting population health: integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework.

PubMed

Van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E; Kominski, Gerald F

2009-01-01

A comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and potential changes in policies and programs. Our Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence, and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality, and medical expenditures. We use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy, and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations.

Stakeholder assessment of comparative effectiveness research needs for Medicaid populations.

PubMed

Fischer, Michael A; Allen-Coleman, Cora; Farrell, Stephen F; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2015-09-01

Patients, providers and policy-makers rely heavily on comparative effectiveness research (CER) when making complex, real-world medical decisions. In particular, Medicaid providers and policy-makers face unique challenges in decision-making because their program cares for traditionally underserved populations, especially children, pregnant women and people with mental illness. Because these patient populations have generally been underrepresented in research discussions, CER questions for these groups may be understudied. To address this problem, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality commissioned our team to work with Medicaid Medical Directors and other stakeholders to identify relevant CER questions. Through an iterative process of topic identification and refinement, we developed relevant, feasible and actionable questions based on issues affecting Medicaid programs nationwide. We describe challenges and limitations and provide recommendations for future stakeholder engagement.

Stakeholder assessment of comparative effectiveness research needs for Medicaid populations

PubMed Central

Fischer, Michael A; Allen-Coleman, Cora; Farrell, Stephen F; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2015-01-01

Patients, providers and policy-makers rely heavily on comparative effectiveness research (CER) when making complex, real-world medical decisions. In particular, Medicaid providers and policy-makers face unique challenges in decision-making because their program cares for traditionally underserved populations, especially children, pregnant women and people with mental illness. Because these patient populations have generally been underrepresented in research discussions, CER questions for these groups may be understudied. To address this problem, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality commissioned our team to work with Medicaid Medical Directors and other stakeholders to identify relevant CER questions. Through an iterative process of topic identification and refinement, we developed relevant, feasible and actionable questions based on issues affecting Medicaid programs nationwide. We describe challenges and limitations and provide recommendations for future stakeholder engagement. PMID:26388438

Toward the Greening of Our Minds: A New Special Topics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marteel-Parrish, Anne E.

2007-01-01

A new special-topics course on green chemistry would help students to critically evaluate policy decisions in an environmentally conscientious manner. The actively acquired knowledge would allow students to spread the word about green chemistry in the long term to the world, where they would pursue their future goals of life.

University Policies under Varying Market Conditions: The Training of Electrical Engineers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eckstein, Zvi; And Others

1988-01-01

Analyzes an Israeli university's problem in optimizing the quality and quantity of electrical engineers in response to fluctuating enrollment. An equilibrium model considers the effect of students' occupation choice and the university's decision on the current and future demand and supply of engineers, in order to predict the equilibrium number of…

Quantitative Analysis of Variables Affecting Nursing Program Completion at Arizona State University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrera, Cheryl

2013-01-01

This study is designed to understand the patterns of selection, preparation, retention and graduation of undergraduate pre-licensure clinical nursing students in the College of Nursing and Health Innovation at Arizona State University enrolled in 2007 and 2008. The resulting patterns may guide policy decision making regarding future cohorts in…

75 FR 42085 - Proposed Settlement Agreements, Clean Air Act Citizen Suit

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-20

... ASCII file, avoiding the use of special characters and any form of encryption, and may be mailed to the... timely emissions data to inform future policy decisions. Under the rule, suppliers of fossil fuels or... will be available only in printed, paper form in the official public docket. Although not all docket...

Gestalt Revisited: Spin-Offs and Assessment in International University Co-Operation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denman, Brian D.

2004-01-01

International university co-operation is in a constant state of metamorphosis. Its future rests upon extraneous forces such as globalization and internationalization and also upon those who make policy decisions. Many international university organizations are auditing their programs and initiatives to such a degree that the cost effectiveness of…

Charting the Future of College Affirmative Action: Legal Victories, Continuing Attacks, and New Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orfield, Gary, Ed.; Marin, Patricia, Ed.; Flores, Stella M., Ed.; Garces, Liliana M., Ed.

2007-01-01

The United States Supreme Court's landmark 2003 decisions in "Grutter v. Bollinger" and "Gratz v. Bollinger" firmly established that university admissions policies which are designed to promote student body diversity and which employ race in a carefully crafted selection process can withstand constitutional challenge. The Supreme Court ruled that…

Energy/Environment Fact Book. Decision Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. Office of Research and Development.

This collection of data and graphics were prepared in response to a request from the White House Energy Policy and Planning Staff. The focus of this document is on those environmental issues which will, in the near and midterm future, prove important to the rapid development of domestic energy resources. This report emphasizes coal because of its…

Voces (Voices): A Profile of Today's Latino College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santiago, Deborah A.

2007-01-01

Latinos are the youngest and fastest growing ethnic group in the United States. It is imperative that institutional leaders and decision makers have a better understanding of Latino students today in order to shape the policies and practices to serve college students in the future. Currently, disparate statistics about Latino students in higher…

"It drives us to do it": pregnant adolescents identify drivers for sexual risk-taking.

PubMed

King Jones, Tammy C

2010-01-01

Sexual risk-taking behaviors have a negative effect on the heath and future of American adolescents. To gain insight into these behaviors and preventative efforts, this study explored the experiences and perceptions of 15 pregnant adolescents using a qualitative feminist approach and in-depth interviews. As participants discussed sex education, each identified influences on sexual decision-making that often overpowered the information received. Content analysis and constant comparison of this data led to the overarching theme "Drivers for Sexual Risk-taking." Drivers were categorized as internal and external and each demonstrated a significant influence on adolescent sexual decision-making. Results of this study can inform the development of educational efforts, reform of social policy, and the focus of future research.

Food production, ecosystem services and biodiversity: We can't have it all everywhere.

PubMed

Holt, Alison R; Alix, Anne; Thompson, Anne; Maltby, Lorraine

2016-12-15

Debate about how sustainable intensification and multifunctionality might be implemented continues, but there remains little understanding as to what extent they are achievable in arable landscapes. Policies that influence agronomic decisions are rarely made with an appreciation of the trade-offs that exist between food production, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision. We present an approach that can reveal such trade-offs when used to assess current and future policy options that affect agricultural inputs (e.g. pesticides, nutrients) and practices. In addition, by demonstrating it in a pesticide policy context, we show how safeguarding a range of ecosystem services may have serious implications for UK food security. We suggest that policy change is most usefully implemented at a landscape scale to promote multifunctionality, tailoring pesticide risk assessment and incentives for management that support bundles of ecosystem services to specific landscape contexts. In some instances tough trade-offs may need to be accepted. However, our approach can ensure that current knowledge is used to inform policy decisions for progress towards a more balanced food production system. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sarkies, Mitchell N; Bowles, Kelly-Ann; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Haas, Romi; Lane, Haylee; Haines, Terry P

2017-11-14

It is widely acknowledged that health policy and management decisions rarely reflect research evidence. Therefore, it is important to determine how to improve evidence-informed decision-making. The primary aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The secondary aim of the review was to describe factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies and the inter-relationship between these factors. An electronic search was developed to identify studies published between January 01, 2000, and February 02, 2016. This was supplemented by checking the reference list of included articles, systematic reviews, and hand-searching publication lists from prominent authors. Two reviewers independently screened studies for inclusion, assessed methodological quality, and extracted data. After duplicate removal, the search strategy identified 3830 titles. Following title and abstract screening, 96 full-text articles were reviewed, of which 19 studies (21 articles) met all inclusion criteria. Three studies were included in the narrative synthesis, finding policy briefs including expert opinion might affect intended actions, and intentions persisting to actions for public health policy in developing nations. Workshops, ongoing technical assistance, and distribution of instructional digital materials may improve knowledge and skills around evidence-informed decision-making in US public health departments. Tailored, targeted messages were more effective in increasing public health policies and programs in Canadian public health departments compared to messages and a knowledge broker. Sixteen studies (18 articles) were included in the thematic synthesis, leading to a conceptualisation of inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective research implementation strategies. A unidirectional, hierarchal flow was described from (1) establishing an imperative for practice change, (2) building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3) developing a shared vision, to (4) actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5) employment of effective communication strategies and (6) provision of resources to support change. Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947).

Ethical, legal, and social issues: our children's future.

PubMed

Gilbert, Steven G

2005-08-01

A convergence of issues suggests that protecting child health is not so much a matter of research, but rather a matter of policy and advocacy. First, we have well-articulated views of a vision for child health. Second, we have experience and toxicological research findings demonstrating the adverse health effects of hazardous chemicals on children and recognize that children are more sensitive than adults to chemical exposures. Results from toxicology research have motivated many regulatory and legal actions, and public policy decisions, including the banning of some pesticides, reducing exposures in the workplace, and lowering of acceptable blood lead levels in children. We also know that childhood disabilities from chemical exposure during developmental are often not treatable and therefore must be prevented. Finally, we have an increasingly well-defined framework for discussing social and ethical responsibility to our children. New discoveries in the basic biological and toxicological sciences have challenged our bioethical thinking and societal decision-making. This paper will explore the ethical, legal, and social issues raised by the toxicological sciences first by examining some hard lesson learned about childhood effects of chemicals and then by examining the difficult policy and research decisions that must be made as we address our need for additional information about the health effects of chemicals on adults and children and the impact of having this information. The precautionary principle will be considered as an alternative decision-making approach as well as exploring the concept of the citizen toxicologist (CT). As Garrett Hardin pointed out many years ago, the problems we face often have no technical solutions, but rather require a policy-based approach. This paper will be of interest to the public and health professionals concerned about the broader impact of toxicological research on bioethical and societal decision-making.

Health technology assessment in India: the potential for improved healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

Kumar, Mrityunjai; Ebrahim, Shah; Taylor, Fiona C; Chokshi, Maulik; Gabbay, John

2014-01-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary approach that uses clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, policy and ethical perspectives to provide evidence upon which rational decisions on the use of health technologies can be made. It can be used for a single stand-alone technology (e.g. a drug, a device), complex interventions (e.g. a rehabilitation service) and can also be applied to individual patient care and to public health. It is a tool for enabling the assessment and comparison of health technologies using the same metric of cost-effectiveness. This process benefits the patient, the health service, the healthcare payer and the technology producer as only technologies that are considered cost-effective are promoted for widespread use. This leads to greater use of effective technologies and greater health gain. The decision-making process in healthcare in India is complex owing to multiplicity of organizations with overlapping mandates. Often the decision-making is not evidence-based and there is no mechanism of bridging the gap between evidence and policy. Elsewhere, HTA is a frequently used tool in informing policy decisions in both resource-rich and resource-poor countries. Despite national organizations producing large volumes of research and clinical guidelines, India has not yet introduced a formal HTA programme. The incremental growth in healthcare products, services, innovation in affordable medical devices and a move towards universal healthcare, needs to be underpinned with an evidencebase which focuses on effectiveness, safety, affordability and acceptability to maximize the benefits that can be gained with a limited healthcare budget. Establishing HTA as a formal process in India, independent of healthcare providers, funders and technology producers, together with a framework for linking HTA to policy-making, would help ensure that the population gets better access to appropriate healthcare in the future. Copyright 2014, NMJI.

Health information exchange policies of 11 diverse health systems and the associated impact on volume of exchange.

PubMed

Downing, N Lance; Adler-Milstein, Julia; Palma, Jonathan P; Lane, Steven; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sharp, Christopher; Longhurst, Christopher A

2017-01-01

Provider organizations increasingly have the ability to exchange patient health information electronically. Organizational health information exchange (HIE) policy decisions can impact the extent to which external information is readily available to providers, but this relationship has not been well studied. Our objective was to examine the relationship between electronic exchange of patient health information across organizations and organizational HIE policy decisions. We focused on 2 key decisions: whether to automatically search for information from other organizations and whether to require HIE-specific patient consent. We conducted a retrospective time series analysis of the effect of automatic querying and the patient consent requirement on the monthly volume of clinical summaries exchanged. We could not assess degree of use or usefulness of summaries, organizational decision-making processes, or generalizability to other vendors. Between 2013 and 2015, clinical summary exchange volume increased by 1349% across 11 organizations. Nine of the 11 systems were set up to enable auto-querying, and auto-querying was associated with a significant increase in the monthly rate of exchange (P = .006 for change in trend). Seven of the 11 organizations did not require patient consent specifically for HIE, and these organizations experienced a greater increase in volume of exchange over time compared to organizations that required consent. Automatic querying and limited consent requirements are organizational HIE policy decisions that impact the volume of exchange, and ultimately the information available to providers to support optimal care. Future efforts to ensure effective HIE may need to explicitly address these factors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Introduction of pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia: a policy analysis

PubMed Central

Hadisoemarto, Panji F; Reich, Michael R; Castro, Marcia C

2016-01-01

The introduction of pentavalent vaccine containing Haemophilus influenzae type b antigen in Indonesia’s National Immunization Program occurred nearly three decades after the vaccine was first available in the United States and 16 years after Indonesia added hepatitis B vaccine into the program. In this study, we analyzed the process that led to the decision to introduce pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia. Using process tracing and case comparison, we used qualitative data gathered through interviews with key informants and data extracted from written sources to identify four distinct but interrelated processes that were involved in the decision making: (a) pentavalent vaccine use policy process, (b) financing process, (c) domestic vaccine development process and (d) political process. We hypothesized that each process is associated with four necessary conditions that are jointly sufficient for the successful introduction of pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia, namely (a) an evidence-based vaccine use recommendation, (b) sufficient domestic financing capacity, (c) sufficient domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity and (d) political support for introduction. This analysis of four processes that led to the decision to introduce a new vaccine in Indonesia may help policy makers and other stakeholders understand and manage activities that can accelerate vaccine introduction in the future. PMID:27107293

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Powered by technology or powering technology?---Belief-based decision-making in nuclear power and synthetic fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chi-Jen

The overarching question in this study is how and why technical-fixes in energy policy failed. In the post-WWII era, civilian nuclear power and synthetic fuel had both been top priorities on the U.S. national policy agenda during certain periods of time. Nuclear power was promoted and pursued persistently with great urgency for over two decades. In contrast, synthetic fuel policy suffered from boom-and-bust cycles. The juxtaposition of policy histories of nuclear power and synthetic fuel highlights many peculiarities in policymaking. The U.S. government forcefully and consistently endorsed the development of civilian nuclear power for two decades. It adopted policies to establish the competitiveness of civilian nuclear power far beyond what would have occurred under free-market conditions. Even though synthetic fuel was characterized by a similar level of economic potential and technical feasibility, the policy approach toward synthetic fuel was almost the opposite of nuclear power. Political support usually stopped when the development of synthetic fuel technology encountered economic difficulties. The contrast between the unfaltering faith in nuclear power and the indeterminate attitude toward synthetic fuel raises many important questions. I argue that these diverging paths of development can be explained by exploring the dominant government ideology of the time or "ideology of the state" as the sociology literature describes it. The price-determining approach was a result of government preoccupied with fighting the Cold War. The U.S. intentionally idealized and deified nuclear power to serve its Cold War psychological strategy. These psychological maneuverings attached important symbolic meaning to nuclear power. The society-wide enthusiasm and resulting bandwagon market are better understood by taking the role of symbolism in the political arena into account. On the other hand, a "welfare state" ideology that stood behind synthetic fuel was confused, indeterminate, and relatively impotent, which explains the hesitancy in the government's synfuel endeavors. In retrospect, it is not difficult to see that many of the pivotal decisions were "belief-based". Due to the long-term nature of energy planning and the inherent unpredictability of the distant future, important energy investment decisions are inevitably based on decision-makers' beliefs. Unfortunately, many generally agreed views about the future turned out to be wrong. Shared beliefs are socially constructed and reflect particular zeitgeists. Another important finding is a recurrent herding phenomenon in the forecasters' community. This phenomenon largely explains the repeated forecasting fallacies. As history reveals itself, shared beliefs about the long-term future have been repeatedly proven wrong. Nevertheless, mistakes caused by misguided beliefs often survive. As culture evolves over the long-term, an old belief system, i.e. a worldview/zeitgeist, may be challenged by a new one. Two competing worldviews underlay the pro- and antinuclear controversies: one embraces modernism while the other is skeptical of it. Long-lived, large-scale capital-intensive energy facilities, such as nuclear power plants, are inevitably encumbered with unique "outlived-zeitgeist" jeopardy. Understanding this peculiar but pervasive characteristic teaches important lessons for today's decision-making about hydrogen and other energy technologies, and the stakes, if anything, are even higher than before.

A Role for Science in Responding to Health Crises

PubMed Central

Brothers, Reginald; Murata, Christina E.

2016-01-01

The Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate plays a role in public health that extends beyond biodefense. These responsibilities were exercised as part of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak, leading to productive and beneficial contributions to the international public health response and improved operations in the United States. However, we and others have identified numerous areas for improvement. Based on our successes and lessons learned, we propose a number of ways that DHS, the interagency, and academia can act now to ensure improved responses to future public health crises. These include pre-developing scientific capabilities to respond agnostically to threats, and disease-specific master question lists to organize and inform initial efforts. We are generating DHS-specific playbooks and tools for anticipating future needs and capturing requests from DHS components and our national and international partners, where efforts will also be used to refine and exercise communication and information-sharing practices. These experiences and improvement efforts have encouraged discussions on the role of science in developing government policy, specifically responding to public health crises. We propose specific considerations for both scientists and government decision makers to ensure that the best available science is incorporated into policy and operational decisions to facilitate highly effective responses to future health crises. PMID:27482881

Planning and Decision Making for Care Transitions

PubMed Central

Sörensen, Silvia; Mak, Wingyun; Pinquart, Martin

2015-01-01

The need to plan for future health care and residential adjustments increases with age, growing frailty, and restrictions in coverage of long-term care and will continue to grow with population aging. Older adults’ lack of financial preparation for health care costs, insufficient knowledge about available options, and inadequate communication about care-related values has become an increasing public health challenge. This chapter describes a model of Preparation for Future Care (PFC), which encompasses different levels and domains of planning. Research about the extent to which planning is helpful in navigating care transitions is reviewed, and barriers and facilitators of planning including individual, familial, cultural, and national long-term care policy factors are discussed. Planning in the context of dementia and practical approaches that can be taken to enhance PFC is addressed, as well as recommendations for future research in the area of planning and decision making in the context of care transitions. PMID:26207079

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; Moreland, Barbara D.

2016-12-01

Consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development of new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.

Here, consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development ofmore » new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.« less

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

DOE PAGES

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; ...

2016-11-21

Here, consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development ofmore » new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.« less

Practitioner perspectives matter: Public policy and private investment in the U.S. electric power sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barradale, Merrill Jones

This dissertation examines the influence of attitudes, beliefs, and preferences of energy industry practitioners on investment decision-making with regard to fuel choice for new electric power plants. The conclusions are based on in-depth interviews and an extensive online survey I conducted of 600-800 energy professionals in the U.S. power sector. Chapter 1 analyzes the impact of policy uncertainty on investment decision-making in renewable energy, using the federal production tax credit (PTC) and wind energy investment as an example. It is generally understood that the pattern of repeated expiration and short-term renewal of the PTC causes a boom-bust cycle in wind power plant investment in the U.S. This on-off pattern is detrimental to the wind industry, since ramp-up and ramp-down costs are high, and players are deterred from making long-term investments. The widely held belief that the severe downturn in investment during "off" years implies that wind power is unviable without the PTC turns out to be unsubstantiated: this chapter demonstrates that it is not the absence of the PTC that causes the investment downturn during "off" years, but rather the uncertainty over its return. Specifically, it is the dynamic of power purchase agreement negotiations in the face of PTC renewal uncertainty that drives investment volatility. This suggests that reducing regulatory uncertainty is a crucial component of effective renewable energy policy. The PTC as currently structured is not the only means, existing or potential, for encouraging wind power investment. Using data from my survey, various alternative policy incentives are considered and compared in terms of their perceived reliability for supporting long-term investment. Chapter 2 introduces the concept of expected payment of carbon as a factor in investment decision-making. The notion of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under potential climate change policy) is usually incorporated into investment decision-making by including a cost of carbon in the budget analysis. Most existing literature uses the expected price of carbon as a proxy for this cost, where expected price is a weighted average of various scenarios, often comparing policy proposals and representing either the price of traded permits or level of carbon tax, depending on the type of policy. The literature focuses on the minimum price of carbon required to influence power plant investment decisions. In contrast, this chapter introduces expected payment as a more accurate measure of carbon cost as it is perceived by industry practitioners. The expected payment of carbon is the expected price of carbon times the probability that this cost would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the 2005-2006 surge of activity in coal-fired power plant development and the subsequent decline in that interest. The energy industry has been slow to move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable resources. In chapter 3 I find evidence for a cognitive bias that plays a role in this momentum. Energy executives' expectations of future energy prices are strongly correlated with their own preferences, which I document for the case of natural gas prices. This is an example of wishful expectations, a form of overconfidence in which people are excessively optimistic over uncontrollable future outcomes. This implies energy executives with strong exposure to fossil fuels are excessively optimistic on future prices and so continue to invest despite the presence of superior alternatives.

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Pedestrian paths: why path-dependence theory leaves health policy analysis lost in space.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence D

2010-08-01

Path dependence, a model first advanced to explain puzzles in the diffusion of technology, has lately won allegiance among analysts of the politics of public policy, including health care policy. Though the central premise of the model--that past events and decisions shape options for innovation in the present and future--is indisputable (indeed path dependence is, so to speak, too shallow to be false), the approach, at least as applied to health policy, suffers from ambiguities that undercut its claims to illuminate policy projects such as managed care, on which this article focuses. Because path dependence adds little more than marginal value to familiar images of the politics of policy--incrementalism, for one--analysts might do well to put it on the back burner and pursue instead "thick descriptions" that help them to distinguish different degrees of openness to exogenous change among diverse policy arenas.

Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

PubMed

Pidgeon, Nick

2012-06-01

Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the EBDM/EBPM process can be improved. PMID:20504357

Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers.

PubMed

McCaughey, Deirdre; Bruning, Nealia S

2010-05-26

Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the EBDM/EBPM process can be improved.

Adaptation Planning for Water Resources Management in the Context of Scientific Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowrey, J.; Kenney, D.

2008-12-01

Several municipalities are beginning to create policies and plans in order to adapt to potential impacts from climate change. A 2007 report from the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, 'A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning,' surveyed fourteen cities or counties across the U.S. and Canada that have created or are working towards creating climate change adaptation plans. Informal interactions with water managers in the Intermountain West indicate an eagerness to learn from those who have already begun adapting to potential climate change. Many of those without plans do not feel comfortable making potentially expensive long-term policy decisions based on impacts derived from uncertain climate change projections. This research identifies how decision makers currently consider climate change in adaptation planning despite imperfect information about climate change impacts, particularly in the water sector. Insights are offered into how best to provide information on climate change projections to regional decision makers so that they can begin adaptation planning for a changing climate. This research analyzes how a subset of the fourteen municipalities justified adaptive planning in the face of scientific uncertainty, paying particular attention to water resource adaptation, using the adaptation approaches studied in the 2007 Heinz Center Report. Interviews will be conducted with decision makers to learn how policies will be implemented and evaluated, and to explore resulting changes in policy or planning. Adaptation strategies are not assessed, but are used to identify how the decision makers plan to evaluate their own adaptation policies. In addition to looking at information use in adaptation plans, we compare how the plans orient themselves (adapting to projected impacts vs. increasing resiliency to current climate variability), how they address barriers and opportunities for adaptation, and whether they follow some key steps for successful adaptation as outlined in the literature. This part of the study will identify any consensus among the municipalities already adapting, and see of the decision makers tend to agree with the points of views expressed in the literature. The conclusions here will not only help decision makers trying to adapt, but it will help researchers orient future research to the informational needs of the decision makers. The work is intended to provide useful information for the Western Water Assessment, a NOAA-funded research boundary organization, which provides climate information to water resource managers in the Intermountain West, including the Colorado River Basin.

Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

2013-12-01

Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate) mitigation effort. In the short term, such 'adaptive' policy responses take two forms: either investing in technologies to ensure they are available if and when aggressive mitigation is necessary; or devising policies that respond explicitly to climate change, such as a carbon tax linked to global temperature. Neither of these approaches has gained much traction in the mitigation debate because they are both seen as 'kicking the can down the road', or placing the burden of tough mitigation decisions on future politicians. We will propose that a climate policy that is explicitly contingent on the climate response should otherwise be as inflexible as possible. Ideally, the only unpredictable element of the policy should be the rate of warming attributable to rising greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming decades. Those affected by the policy should be able take a clean position on what that rate is likely to be, unaffected by speculation on what future politicians are likely to do. On this measure, relying on a carbon price or subsidizing technology development are both too flexible, however attractive they might be assuming perfectly rational implementation, because their impact depends as much or more on future decisions on taxes and subsidies as it does on future climate. We will describe a possible alternative, upstream mandatory sequestration (or 'SAFE carbon') explicitly linked to attributable warming, and discuss how it might be implemented.

Policy formulation and technology assessment.

PubMed

Banta, H D; Behney, C J

1981-01-01

Describes technology assessment and its application to the health field; examines evaluation of efficacy, safety, and cost effectiveness; discusses the use of technology assessment in policy formulation, especially by federal programs; suggests a system for assessment of medical technologies; and offers some observations about the future of technology assessment in policy making. Technology assessment began formally in 1965 in the Committee on Science and Astronautics of the House of Representatives as a process of examining technology and its impacts. Only a few attempts have been made since then to apply the concepts of technology assessment to health care. The amount of money currently devoted to assessing the efficacy and safety of medical technologies is small, and many important technologies have not been assessed. Priorities for clinical trials should therefore be set. Cost effectiveness analysis is a useful tool in decision making but because of its inherent limitations, it should not be the sole or even primary determinant of a decision. Technology assessment is apparently infrequently used as a decision-assisting tool by 3rd party payers, federal government agencies funding biomedical research, or the federal program which is designed to control physician utilization of certain technologies. Only the FDA regularly utilizes technology assessment. A systematic program of technology assessment would require identification of technologies needing testing, setting of priorities for such tests, synthesizing of information gained and its dessemination to decision makers.

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-01-01

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C; Pidgeon, Anna M; Plantinga, Andrew J; McKerrow, Alexa J; Williams, Steven G; Helmers, David P; Radeloff, Volker C

2015-01-01

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Plantinga, Andrew; McKerrow, Alexa; Williams, Steven G.; Helmers, David P.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2015-01-01

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Promoting healthy food consumption: a review of state-level policies to improve access to fruits and vegetables.

PubMed

Hood, Carlyn; Martinez-Donate, Ana; Meinen, Amy

2012-12-01

Research indicates poor nutrition is a leading determinant of the development of chronic disease, and increasing fruit and vegetable consumption is one method for decreasing obesity. Many policies have focused on increasing the demand for fruits and vegetables through price reductions and coupons. However, without ensuring a stable supply, increased demand can continue to raise prices, crowding out individuals who may otherwise have purchased fruits and vegetables and ultimately leading to continued disparities in access. This paper presents a review of selected state-level policy options recently proposed or implemented in states across the United States, and provides an evidence-based lens through which food access policy can be shaped in the Midwest. This review and potential framework uses Wisconsin to illustrate the feasibility of different state-level decisions and their potential impact on particular populations. Future supply-side policies to consider include expanding Electronic Benefit Transfer to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC),program and farmers markets, incentivizing the purchase of locally grown produce, assisting local specialty farmers directly, and/or establishing a state-level food policy council. This review reveals that a food policy council would create a more sustainable policy analysis process to better ensure future policy adoption is truly comprehensive, encompassing the production, distribution and purchase of locally grown fruits and vegetables.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Future Skill Needs in Europe: Critical Labour Force Trends. Cedefop Research Paper. No 59

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cedefop - European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 2016

2016-01-01

The European labour market is challenged by changes in the demographic composition of the labour force and increasing work complexities and processes. Skills forecasting makes useful contribution to decisions by policy-makers, experts and individuals. In this publication, Cedefop presents the latest results of skills supply and demand forecasts.…

The VLE as a Trojan Mouse: Policy, Politics and Pragmatism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Mark; Paewai, Shelley; Suddaby, Gordon

2010-01-01

This paper argues that selecting a new Learning Management System (LMS) is a strategic decision about the future direction of your institution. However, the development of a robust methodology for the selection of a new LMS is particularly challenging given the fluidity of the e-learning environment. This is especially so when both quantitative…

Use of Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling to Generate User-Friendly Decision Support Systems for the Design of Management Policies for Complex Human-Environmental Systems: A Case Study from the Varied Socio-environmental Landscape of Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Carrera, J.; Mellini, L.; Pineda, P.; Monterroso, O.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Adamowski, J. F.; Halbe, J.; Monardes, H.; Gálvez, J.

2014-12-01

The design of effective management policies for socioenvironmental systems requires the development of comprehensive, yet sufficiently simple, decision support systems (DSS) for policy makers. Guatemala is a particularly complex case, combining an enormous diversity of climates, geographies, and agroecosystems within a very small geographical scale. Although food insecurity levels are very high, indicating a generally inadequate management of the varied agroecosystems of the country, different regions have shown vastly different trends in food insecurity over the past decade, including between regions with similar geophysical and climatic characteristics and/or governmental programmes (e.g., agricultural support). These observations suggest two important points: firstly, that not merely environmental conditions but rather socio-environmental interactions play a crucial role in the successful management of human-environmental systems, and, secondly, that differences in the geophysical and climatic environments between the diverse regions significantly impact the success or failure of policies. This research uses participatory systems dynamic modelling (SDM) to build a DSS that allows local decision-makers to (1) determine the impact of current and potential policies on agroecosystem management and food security, and (2) design sustainable and resilient policies for the future. The use of participatory SDM offers several benefits, including the active involvement of the end recipients in the development of the model, greatly increasing its acceptability; the integration of physical (e.g., precipitation, crop yield) and social components in one model; adequacy for modelling long-term trends in response to particular policy decisions; and the inclusion of local stakeholder knowledge on system structure and trends through the participatory process. Preliminary results suggest that there is a set of common variables explaining the generally high levels of food insecurity in Guatemala (e.g., agricultural productivity), while others (e.g., land dynamics and access to water resources) are restricted to certain regions and have a relatively important weight in determining the success or failure of policies in these regions.

WHO policy development processes for a new vaccine: case study of malaria vaccines.

PubMed

Milstien, Julie; Cárdenas, Vicky; Cheyne, James; Brooks, Alan

2010-06-24

Recommendations from the World Health Organization (WHO) are crucial to inform developing country decisions to use, or not, a new intervention. This article analysed the WHO policy development process to predict its course for a malaria vaccine. The decision-making processes for one malaria intervention and four vaccines were classified through (1) consultations with staff and expert advisors to WHO's Global Malaria Programme (GMP) and Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals Department (IVB); (2) analysis of the procedures and recommendations of the major policy-making bodies of these groups; (3) interviews with staff of partnerships working toward new vaccine availability; and (4) review and analyses of evidence informing key policy decisions. WHO policy formulation related to use of intermittent preventive treatment in infancy (IPTi) and the following vaccine interventions: Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine (Hib), pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), rotavirus vaccine (RV), and human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV), five interventions which had relatively recently been through systematic WHO policy development processes as currently constituted, was analysed. Required information was categorized in three areas defined by a recent WHO publication on development of guidelines: safety and efficacy in relevant populations, implications for costs and population health, and localization of data to specific epidemiological situations. Data needs for a malaria vaccine include safety; the demonstration of efficacy in a range of epidemiological settings in the context of other malaria prevention interventions; and information on potential rebound in which disease increases subsequent to the intervention. In addition, a malaria vaccine would require attention to additional factors, such as costs and cost-effectiveness, supply and demand, impact of use on other interventions, and distribution issues. Although policy issues may be more complex for future vaccines, the lead-time between the date of product regulatory approval and a recommendation for its use in developing countries is decreasing. This study presents approaches to define in advance core data needs to support evidence-based decisions, to further decrease this lead-time, accelerating the availability of a malaria vaccine. Specific policy areas for which information should be collected are defined, including studying its use within the context of other malaria interventions.

Workshop summary: 'Integrating air quality and climate mitigation - is there a need for new metrics to support decision making?'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmale, J.; Van Aardenne, J.

2013-12-01

Air pollution and climate change are often treated at national and international level as separate problems under different regulatory or thematic frameworks and different policy departments. With air pollution and climate change being strongly linked with regard to their causes, effects and mitigation options, the integration of policies that steer air pollutant and greenhouse gas emission reductions might result in cost-efficient, more effective and thus more sustainable tackling of the two problems. To support informed decision making and to work towards an integrated air quality and climate change mitigation policy requires the identification, quantification and communication of present-day and potential future co-benefits and trade-offs. The identification of co-benefits and trade-offs requires the application of appropriate metrics that are well rooted in science, easy to understand and reflect the needs of policy, industry and the public for informed decision making. For the purpose of this workshop, metrics were loosely defined as a quantified measure of effect or impact used to inform decision-making and to evaluate mitigation measures. The workshop held on October 9 and 10 and co-organized between the European Environment Agency and the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies brought together representatives from science, policy, NGOs, and industry to discuss whether current available metrics are 'fit for purpose' or whether there is a need to develop alternative metrics or reassess the way current metrics are used and communicated. Based on the workshop outcome the presentation will (a) summarize the informational needs and current application of metrics by the end-users, who, depending on their field and area of operation might require health, policy, and/or economically relevant parameters at different scales, (b) provide an overview of the state of the science of currently used and newly developed metrics, and the scientific validity of these metrics, (c) identify gaps in the current information base, whether from the scientific development of metrics or their application by different users.

Transfers to the old, government debt and demographic change.

PubMed

Verbon, H A

1990-01-01

"In this paper we take the view that policy makers...take the relationship between (explicit) intergenerational transfer systems (including public pension schemes) and government deficits into account. It is assumed that policy makers are behaving altruistically towards past and future generations. Given the behavioral model, an analysis is made of the effects of demographic changes (such as the 'baby-boom' of the 1940s and 1950s and the decline of birth rates in the 1970s) on the decisions to be taken with respect to the tax rate of the public pension system and the size of government debt. From the analysis it appears that, with the assumption of altruistic decision-makers, periods of increasing or decreasing debt can occur alternately in periods of demographic change." The geographical focus is on developed countries. excerpt

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP): a national scale natural resources and conservation needs assessment and decision support tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, M.-V. V.; Norfleet, M. L.; Atwood, J. D.; Behrman, K. D.; Kiniry, J. R.; Arnold, J. G.; White, M. J.; Williams, J.

2015-07-01

The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was initiated to quantify the impacts of agricultural conservation practices at the watershed, regional, and national scales across the United States. Representative cropland acres in all major U.S. watersheds were surveyed in 2003-2006 as part of the seminal CEAP Cropland National Assessment. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender(APEX) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were applied to the survey data to provide a quantitative assessment of current conservation practice impacts, establish a benchmark against which future conservation trends and efforts could be measured, and identify outstanding conservation concerns. The flexibility of these models and the unprecedented amount of data on current conservation practices across the country enabled Cropland CEAP to meet its Congressional mandate of quantifying the value of current conservation practices. It also enabled scientifically grounded exploration of a variety of conservation scenarios, empowering CEAP to not only inform on past successes and additional needs, but to also provide a decision support tool to help guide future policy development and conservation practice decision making. The CEAP effort will repeat the national survey in 2015-2016, enabling CEAP to provide analyses of emergent conservation trends, outstanding needs, and potential costs and benefits of pursuing various treatment scenarios for all agricultural watersheds across the United States.

Walking the Fine Line: Political Decision Making with or without Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkel-Keller, Claudia

The stages of the policy process are examined and explained in terms of the decision making framework. The policy process is comprised of four stages; policy analysis, policy formation, policy decision, and political analysis. Political analysis is the performance of the market analysis needed for a decision. The political weight, rather than the…

Physics of risk and uncertainty in quantum decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2009-10-01

The Quantum Decision Theory, developed recently by the authors, is applied to clarify the role of risk and uncertainty in decision making and in particular in relation to the phenomenon of dynamic inconsistency. By formulating this notion in precise mathematical terms, we distinguish three types of inconsistency: time inconsistency, planning paradox, and inconsistency occurring in some discounting effects. While time inconsistency is well accounted for in classical decision theory, the planning paradox is in contradiction with classical utility theory. It finds a natural explanation in the frame of the Quantum Decision Theory. Different types of discounting effects are analyzed and shown to enjoy a straightforward explanation within the suggested theory. We also introduce a general methodology based on self-similar approximation theory for deriving the evolution equations for the probabilities of future prospects. This provides a novel classification of possible discount factors, which include the previously known cases (exponential or hyperbolic discounting), but also predicts a novel class of discount factors that decay to a strictly positive constant for very large future time horizons. This class may be useful to deal with very long-term discounting situations associated with intergenerational public policy choices, encompassing issues such as global warming and nuclear waste disposal.

International employees' concerns during serious disease outbreaks and the potential impact on business continuity: Lessons identified from the 2014-15 West African Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Cole, Jennifer; Watkins, Chris

This paper presents the findings of research carried out into the information-seeking behaviour, and information requirements of a small sample of international workers stationed in West Africa during the Zaire Ebola virus outbreak of 2014-15. The research study under which these results were obtained was part of exploratory research for a PhD focused on the use, and potential uses, of social media platforms during serious disease outbreaks that might be used to inform policy planning for public health and emergency response interventions. Thus, the findings from this study may provide valuable insights to business continuity managers and emergency planners in making future decisions about information exchange and crisis decision-making during future serious disease outbreaks.

Youth and digital media: a policy research agenda.

PubMed

Montgomery, K

2000-08-01

At a time when researchers are still sorting out the complex relationship between adolescents and the mass media, the entire nature of the media system is undergoing dramatic change. The explosive growth of the Internet is ushering in a new digital media culture. Youth are embracing the new technologies much more rapidly than adults. In addition, because of their increased spending power, youth have become a valuable target market for advertisers. These trends have spurred the proliferation of Web sites and other forms of new-media content specifically designed for teens and children. The burgeoning digital marketplace has spawned a new generation of market research companies, and market research on children and youth is outpacing academic research on youth and the newer media. The emergence of this new media culture holds both promise and peril for youth. Whether the positive or negative vision of the digital future prevails will be determined, in large part, by decisions being made now and in the next few years in the halls of government and in corporate boardrooms. Research has contributed to the resolutions of several recent legislative and policy decisions in areas including television violence and the V-chip, children's educational television programming, and privacy and marketing to children on the Web. Future research needs to be designed with the public policy agenda in mind. The academic community has much to contribute to the debates over new developments in the digital age.

A Global Review of Incentive Programs to Accelerate Energy-Efficient Appliances and Equipment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Phadke, Amol; Leventis, Greg

Incentive programs are an essential policy tool to move the market toward energy-efficient products. They offer a favorable complement to mandatory standards and labeling policies by accelerating the market penetration of energy-efficient products above equipment standard requirements and by preparing the market for increased future mandatory requirements. They sway purchase decisions and in some cases production decisions and retail stocking decisions toward energy-efficient products. Incentive programs are structured according to their regulatory environment, the way they are financed, by how the incentive is targeted, and by who administers them. This report categorizes the main elements of incentive programs, using casemore » studies from the Major Economies Forum to illustrate their characteristics. To inform future policy and program design, it seeks to recognize design advantages and disadvantages through a qualitative overview of the variety of programs in use around the globe. Examples range from rebate programs administered by utilities under an Energy-Efficiency Resource Standards (EERS) regulatory framework (California, USA) to the distribution of Eco-Points that reward customers for buying efficient appliances under a government recovery program (Japan). We found that evaluations have demonstrated that financial incentives programs have greater impact when they target highly efficient technologies that have a small market share. We also found that the benefits and drawbacks of different program design aspects depend on the market barriers addressed, the target equipment, and the local market context and that no program design surpasses the others. The key to successful program design and implementation is a thorough understanding of the market and effective identification of the most important local factors hindering the penetration of energy-efficient technologies.« less

Barriers and facilitators to HPV vaccination of young women in high-income countries: a qualitative systematic review and evidence synthesis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Vaccination against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is recommended for adolescent young women prior to sexual debut to reduce cervical cancer related mortality and morbidity. Understanding factors affecting decision-making of HPV vaccination of young women is important so that effective interventions can be developed which address barriers to uptake in population groups less likely to receive the HPV vaccine. Methods We undertook a qualitative systematic review and evidence synthesis to examine decision-making relating to the HPV vaccination of young women in high-income countries. A comprehensive search of databases from inception to March 2012 was undertaken to identify eligible studies reporting the perspectives of key stakeholders including policy makers, professionals involved in programme, parents, and young women. Factors affecting uptake of the vaccine were examined at different levels of the socio-ecological model (policy, community, organisational, interpersonal and intrapersonal). Results Forty-one studies were included. Whether young women receive the HPV vaccine is strongly governed by the decisions of policy makers, healthcare professionals, and parents. These decisions are shaped by: financial considerations; social norms and values relating to sexual activity, and; trust in vaccination programmes and healthcare providers. Financial constraints may be overcome through universal healthcare systems offering the HPV vaccine free at the point of delivery. In the healthcare setting, judgements by healthcare professionals about whether to recommend the vaccine may restrict a young woman’s access to the vaccine irrespective of her own beliefs and preferences. Parents may decide not to allow their daughters to be vaccinated, based on cultural or religious perceptions about sexual activity. Conclusions Barriers to the uptake of the HPV vaccine have implications for young women’s future sexual, physical and reproductive health. Interventions to address barriers to uptake of the vaccine should target appropriate, and multiple, levels of the socio-ecological model. Issues of trust require clear, accessible, and sometimes culturally appropriate, information about the HPV vaccination programme. Although young women are central to the HPV vaccination programme, their views are underrepresented in the qualitative literature. Future research should consider young women’s perceptions of, and involvement in, consent and decision-making. PMID:25004868

Integrating natural and social sciences to manage sustainably vectors of change in the marine environment: Dogger Bank transnational case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burdon, Daryl; Boyes, Suzanne J.; Elliott, Michael; Smyth, Katie; Atkins, Jonathan P.; Barnes, Richard A.; Wurzel, Rüdiger K.

2018-02-01

The management of marine resources is a complex process driven by the dynamics of the natural system and the influence of stakeholders including policy-makers. An integration of natural and social sciences research is required by policy-makers to better understand, and manage sustainably, natural changes and anthropogenic activities within particular marine systems. Given the uncertain development of activities in the marine environment, future scenarios assessments can be used to investigate whether marine policy measures are robust and sustainable. This paper develops an interdisciplinary framework, which incorporates future scenarios assessments, and identifies four main types of evaluation needed to integrate natural and social sciences research to support the integrated management of the marine environment: environmental policy and governance assessments; ecosystem services, indicators and valuation; modelling tools for management evaluations, and risk assessment and risk management. The importance of stakeholder engagement within each evaluation method is highlighted. The paper focuses on the transnational spatial marine management of the Dogger Bank, in the central North Sea, a site which is very important ecologically, economically and politically. Current management practices are reviewed, and research tools to support future management decisions are applied and discussed in relation to two main vectors of change affecting the Dogger Bank, namely commercial fisheries and offshore wind farm developments, and in relation to the need for nature conservation. The input of local knowledge through stakeholder engagement is highlighted as a necessary requirement to produce site-specific policy recommendations for the future management of the Dogger Bank. We present wider policy recommendations to integrate natural and social sciences in a global marine context.

Evidence-based clinical policy: case report of a reproducible process to encourage understanding and evaluation of evidence.

PubMed

Rikard-Bell, G; Waters, E; Ward, J

2006-07-01

We report within a case study a reproducible process to facilitate the explicit incorporation of evidence by a multidisciplinary group into clinical policy development. To support the decision-making of a multidisciplinary Intersectoral Advisory Group (IAG) convened by the Royal Australasian College of Physicians Health Policy Unit, a systematic review of randomized controlled trials about environmental tobacco smoke and smoking cessation interventions in paediatric settings was first undertaken. As reported in detail here, IAG members were then formally engaged in a transparent and replicable process to understand and interpret the synthesized evidence and to proffer their independent reactions regarding policy, practice and research. Our intention was to ensure that all IAG members were democratically engaged and made aware of the available evidence. As clinical policy must engage stakeholder representatives from diverse backgrounds, a process to equalize understanding of the evidence and 'democratize' judgment about its implications is needed. Future research must then examine the benefits of such explicit steps when guidelines, in turn, are implemented. We hypothesize that changes to future practice will be more likely if processes undertaken to develop guidelines are transparent to clinicians and other target groups.

Forest management under uncertainty for multiple bird population objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Plummer, W.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of-alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

Mutual Distrust: Perspectives From Researchers and Policy Makers on the Research to Policy Gap in 2013 and Recommendations for the Future

PubMed Central

Gollust, Sarah E.; Seymour, Jane W.; Pany, Maximilian J.; Goss, Adeline; Meisel, Zachary F.; Grande, David

2017-01-01

The production of health policy-relevant research is necessary, but not sufficient, to promote its utilization in policy. Our objective was to understand the perspectives of United States’ state-level policy makers and health researchers on the barriers and facilitators to the translation of health evidence into the policy process, with a particular focus on issues related to relationship building. We conducted interviews with 215 US health services and health policy researchers and 40 state-level staffers and legislators. Researchers and policy makers faced the same major barrier to research translation: lack of dedicated time to do so. Some policy makers questioned the credibility of research, and researchers questioned policy makers’ authentic desire to use evidence in decision making. For some study participants, a mutual mistrust of the other group challenges stronger relationship formation. Interventions are needed to help both groups understand a broader role that research plays in policy making and to increase personal contact, and ultimately trusted relationships, across various actors in the policy process. PMID:28452251

Comparative risk assessment of spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part III. Stakeholder engagement.

PubMed

Walker, Ann Hayward; Scholz, Debra; McPeek, Melinda; French-McCay, Deborah; Rowe, Jill; Bock, Michael; Robinson, Hilary; Wenning, Richard

2018-05-25

This paper describes oil spill stakeholder engagement in a recent comparative risk assessment (CRA) project that examined the tradeoffs associated with a hypothetical offshore well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico, with a specific focus on subsea dispersant injection (SSDI) at the wellhead. SSDI is a new technology deployed during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill response. Oil spill stakeholders include decision makers, who will consider whether to integrate SSDI into future tradeoff decisions. This CRA considered the tradeoffs associated with three sets of response strategies: (1) no intervention; (2) mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, and surface dispersants; and, (3) SSDI in addition to responses in (2). For context, the paper begins with a historical review of U.S. policy and engagement with oil spill stakeholders regarding dispersants. Stakeholder activities throughout the project involved decision-maker representatives and their advisors to inform the approach and consider CRA utility in future oil spill preparedness. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antimicrobials in animal agriculture: parables and policy.

PubMed

Scott, H M; Midgley, G; Loneragan, G H

2015-04-01

In addition to the scientific, economic, regulatory and other policy factors that impact on antimicrobial decision-making in different jurisdictions around the world, there exist ethical, social and cultural bases for the contemporary use of these products in animal agriculture. Thus, the use of the word 'parable' to describe the contemporary moral stories that help to guide ethical antimicrobial use practices and broader policy decisions in animal agriculture is appropriate. Several of these stories reflect difficult decisions that arise from conflicting moral imperatives (i.e. both towards animal welfare and towards human health). Understanding the factors that combine to define the past and present paradigms of antimicrobial usage is crucial to mapping a path forward. There exist barriers, as well as opportunities, for advancing scenarios for reducing antimicrobial usage under a variety of voluntary, regulatory and legal policy frameworks. Any new approaches will ideally be structured to extend the use of present-day antimicrobials into the future, to provide novel alternatives for regulating any newly introduced antimicrobial products so as to maximize their useful life span and to ensure the optimal use of these products in animal agriculture to protect not only the health of animals and the interests of animal health/agriculture stakeholders, but also the human health and the interests of the public at large. A full range of policy approaches, which span the realm from strictly enforced regulations and laws to voluntary guidelines and compliance, should be explored with respect to their risks and benefits in a variety of worldwide settings and in full consideration of a range of stakeholder values. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Introduction of pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia: a policy analysis.

PubMed

Hadisoemarto, Panji F; Reich, Michael R; Castro, Marcia C

2016-10-01

The introduction of pentavalent vaccine containing Haemophilus influenzae type b antigen in Indonesia's National Immunization Program occurred nearly three decades after the vaccine was first available in the United States and 16 years after Indonesia added hepatitis B vaccine into the program. In this study, we analyzed the process that led to the decision to introduce pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia. Using process tracing and case comparison, we used qualitative data gathered through interviews with key informants and data extracted from written sources to identify four distinct but interrelated processes that were involved in the decision making: (a) pentavalent vaccine use policy process, (b) financing process, (c) domestic vaccine development process and (d) political process. We hypothesized that each process is associated with four necessary conditions that are jointly sufficient for the successful introduction of pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia, namely (a) an evidence-based vaccine use recommendation, (b) sufficient domestic financing capacity, (c) sufficient domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity and (d) political support for introduction. This analysis of four processes that led to the decision to introduce a new vaccine in Indonesia may help policy makers and other stakeholders understand and manage activities that can accelerate vaccine introduction in the future. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Technology diffusion and environmental regulation: Evidence from electric power plants under the Clean Air Act

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Elaine F.

Even though environmental policy can greatly affect the path of technology diffusion, the economics literature contains limited empirical evidence of this relationship. My research will contribute to the available evidence by providing insight into the technology adoption decisions of electric generating firms. Since policies are often evaluated based on the incentives they provide to promote adoption of new technologies, it is important that policy makers understand the relationship between technological diffusion and regulation structure to make informed decisions. Lessons learned from this study can be used to guide future policies such as those directed to mitigate climate change. I first explore the diffusion of scrubbers, a sulfur dioxide (SO 2) abatement technology, in response to federal market-based regulations and state command-and-control regulations. I develop a simple theoretical model to describe the adoption decisions of scrubbers and use a survival model to empirically test the theoretical model. I find that power plants with strict command-and-control regulations have a high probability of installing a scrubber. These findings suggest that although market-based regulations have encouraged diffusion, many scrubbers have been installed because of state regulatory pressure. Although tradable permit systems are thought to give firms more flexibility in choosing abatement technologies, I show that interactions between a permit system and pre-existing command-and-control regulations can limit that flexibility. In a separate analysis, I explore the diffusion of combined cycle (CC) generating units, which are natural gas-fired generating units that are cleaner and more efficient than alternative generating units. I model the decision to consider adoption of a CC generating unit and the extent to which the technology is adopted in response to environmental regulations imposed on new sources of pollutants. To accomplish this, I use a zero-inflated Poisson model and focus on both the decision to adopt a CC unit at an existing power plant as well as the firm-level decision to adopt a CC unit in either a new or an existing power plant. Evidence from this empirical investigation shows that environmental regulation has a significant effect on both the decision to consider adoption as well as the extent of adoption.

Geopolitics of Quantum Buddhism: Our Pre-Hydrocarbon Tao Future (No Breakthrough at the Rio+20 Summit)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bajrektarevic, Anis

2013-01-01

From Rio to Rio with Kyoto, Copenhagen and Durban in between, the conclusion remains the same: we fundamentally disagree on realities of this planet and the ways we can address them. A decisive breakthrough would necessitate both wider contexts and a larger participatory base so as to identify problems, formulate policies, and broaden and…

75 FR 67970 - Notice of Inquiry; An Analysis of the European Union Repeal of the Liner Conference Block Exemption

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-04

... the E.U.'s policy decision on U.S. trades, and will be incorporated into the Commission's research for... concerning the parameters of the study, the proposed research methods, and the possibility of future... particular. NOI Participation The Commission's research efforts, under the E.U. Study, are intended to...

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

PubMed

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

The Influence of Future Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4) on Doctrine and the Operational Commander's Decision-Making Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayer, Michael G.

1996-01-01

Future C4 systems will alter the traditional balance between force and information, having a profound influence on doctrine and the operational commander's decision making process. The Joint Staff's future vision of C4 is conceptualized in 'C4I for the Warrior' which envisions a joint C4I architecture providing timely sensor to shoot information direct to the warfighter. C4 system must manage and filter an overwhelming amount of information; deal with interoperability issues; overcome technological limitations; meet emerging security requirements; and protect against 'Information Warfare.' Severe budget constraints necessitate unified control of C4 systems under singular leadership for the common good of all the services. In addition, acquisition policy and procedures must be revamped to allow new technologies to be fielded quickly; and the commercial marketplace will become the preferred starting point for modernization. Flatter command structures are recommended in this environment where information is available instantaneously. New responsibilities for decision making at lower levels are created. Commanders will have to strike a balance between exerting greater control and allowing subordinates enough flexibility to maintain initiative. Clearly, the commander's intent remains the most important tool in striking this balance.

Defining alternative rules in water and sanitation.

PubMed

Robert, J

1995-11-01

While the conventional water and sanitation package remains most prominent, alternatives exist to conventional waterworks and sanitation practices. Some alternate courses of action are considered. Promising an unprecedented availability of piped water, water development projects foster a pump-and-dump mentality even before they are completed. Often simply announcing the impending implementation of such projects encourages the intention among future beneficiaries to waste water resources. Alternatives to the domestic waste of water must be sought and implemented. Disestablishing water development, styles of alternative water technologies, decision-making and decision-makers, water policy scale, regenerating community access to sources, and water pricing are discussed.

Copernicus: a quantum leap in Earth Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschbacher, Josef

2015-04-01

Copernicus is the most ambitious, most comprehensive Earth observation system world-wide. It aims at giving decision-makers better information to act upon, at global, continental, national and regional level. The European Union (EU) leads the overall programme, while the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates the space component. Similar to meteorology, satellite data is combined with data from airborne and ground sensors to provide a holistic view of the state of the planet. All these data are fed into a range of thematic information services designed to benefit the environment and to support policy-makers and other stakeholders to make decisions, coordinate policy areas, and formulate strategies relating to the environment. Moreover, the data will also be used for predicting future climate trends. Never has such a comprehensive Earth-observation based system been in place before. It will be fully integrated into an informed decision making process, thus enabling economic and social benefits through better access to information globally. A key feature of Copernicus is the free and open data policy of the Sentinel satellite data. This will enable that Earth observation based information enters completely new domains of daily life. High quality, regularly updated satellite observations become available for basically everyone. To ensure universal access new ground segment and data access concepts need to be developed. As more data are made available, better decisions can made, more business will be created and science and research can be achieved through the upcoming Sentinel data.

Cooperative Drought Adaptation: Integrating Infrastructure Development, Conservation, and Water Transfers into Adaptive Policy Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.; Herman, J. D.

2015-12-01

Water supply policies that integrate portfolios of short-term management decisions with long-term infrastructure development enable utilities to adapt to a range of future scenarios. An effective mix of short-term management actions can augment existing infrastructure, potentially forestalling new development. Likewise, coordinated expansion of infrastructure such as regional interconnections and shared treatment capacity can increase the effectiveness of some management actions like water transfers. Highly adaptable decision pathways that mix long-term infrastructure options and short-term management actions require decision triggers capable of incorporating the impact of these time-evolving decisions on growing water supply needs. Here, we adapt risk-based triggers to sequence a set of potential infrastructure options in combination with utility-specific conservation actions and inter-utility water transfers. Individual infrastructure pathways can be augmented with conservation or water transfers to reduce the cost of meeting utility objectives, but they can also include cooperatively developed, shared infrastructure that expands regional capacity to transfer water. This analysis explores the role of cooperation among four water utilities in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina by formulating three distinct categories of adaptive policy pathways: independent action (utility-specific conservation and supply infrastructure only), weak cooperation (utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers), and strong cooperation (utility specific conservation and jointly developed of regional infrastructure that supports transfers). Results suggest that strong cooperation aids the utilities in meeting their individual objections at substantially lower costs and with fewer irreversible infrastructure options.

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

PubMed Central

Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions. PMID:28800591

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions.

Iridium: failures & successes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, CarissaBryce; Beard, Suzette

2001-03-01

This paper will provide an overview of the Iridium business venture in terms of the challenges faced, the successes achieved, and the causes of the ultimate failure of the venture — bankruptcy and system de-orbit. The paper will address technical, business, and policy issues. The intent of the paper is to provide a balanced and accurate overview of the Iridium experience, to aid future decision-making by policy makers, the business community, and technical experts. Key topics will include the history of the program, the objectives and decision-making of Motorola, the market research and analysis conducted, partnering strategies and their impact, consumer equipment availability, and technical issues — target performance, performance achieved, technical accomplishments, and expected and unexpected technical challenges. The paper will use as sources trade media and business articles on the Iridium program, technical papers and conference presentations, Wall Street analyst's reports, and, where possible, interviews with participants and close observers.

Women's Experiences of Publicly Funded Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing in Ontario, Canada: Considerations for Health Technology Policy-Making.

PubMed

Vanstone, Meredith; Yacoub, Karima; Giacomini, Mita; Hulan, Danielle; McDonald, Sarah

2015-08-01

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) via fetal DNA in maternal blood has been publicly funded in Ontario, Canada, for high-risk women since 2014. We solicited women's experiences and values related to this new health technology to describe how this test is currently being used in Ontario and to provide information about patient priorities to inform future policy decisions about the use of NIPT. Guided by constructivist grounded theory methodology, we interviewed 38 women who had diverse personal experiences with NIPT. Participants' accounts of their values for decision making about NIPT heavily relied on three mutually modulating factors: timing, accuracy, and risk. The values expressed by women conflict with the way that publicly funded NIPT has typically been implemented in Ontario. We offer recommendations for how NIPT might be integrated into prenatal care pathways in a way more consistent with women's values. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Energy-Water Nexus: Managing the Links between Energy and Water for a Sustainable Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussey, Karen; Petit, Carine

2010-05-01

Water and energy are both indispensable inputs to modern economies but currently both resources are under threat owing to the impacts of an ever-increasing population and associated demand, unsustainable practices in agriculture and manufacturing, and the implications of a changing climate. However, it is where water and energy rely on each other that pose the most complex challenges for policy-makers. Water is needed for mining coal, drilling oil, refining gasoline, and generating and distributing electricity; and, conversely, vast amounts of energy are needed to pump, transport, treat and distribute water, particularly in the production of potable water through the use of desalination plants and waste water treatment plants. Despite the links, and the urgency in both sectors for security of supply, in existing policy frameworks energy and water policies are developed largely in isolation from one another. Worse still, some policies designed to encourage alternative energy supplies give little thought to the resultant consequences on water resources, and, similarly, policies designed to secure water supplies pay little attention to the resultant consequences on energy use. The development of new technologies presents both opportunities and challenges for managing the energy-water nexus but a better understanding of the links between energy and water is essential in any attempt to formulate policies for more resilient and adaptable societies. The energy-water nexus must be adequately integrated into policy and decision-making or governments run the risk of contradicting their efforts, and therefore failing in their objectives, in both sectors. A series of COST Exploratory Workshops, drawing on on-going research in the energy-water nexus from a number of international teams, identified the implications of the energy-water nexus on the development of (i) energy policies (ii) water resource management policies and (iii) climate adaptation and mitigation policies. A preliminary list of recommendations on how best to account for and integrate these impacts into policy and decision-making processes at various institutional levels was prepared and future research needs in the energy-water nexus were suggested as main outcomes. This presentation draws on the contributions to the COST water-energy-links exploratory workshops and the development of 12 case studies undertaken by researchers from Europe, the United States, Australia and China, which will be published in a Special Feature of Ecology and Society, mid-2010.

Ethics Instruction for Future Geoscientists: Essential for Contributions to Good Public Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leinen, M.; Mogk, D. W.

2016-12-01

Geoscientists work in a world of uncertainty in the complex, dynamic, and chaotic Earth system that is fraught with opportunities to become involved in ethical dilemmas. To be effective contributors to the public discourse on Earth science policy, geoscientists must conduct their work according to the highest personal and professional ethical standards. The geosciences as a discipline relies on the fidelity of geoscience data and their interpretations, geoscience concepts and methodologies must be conveyed to policy makers in ways that allow them to make informed decisions, corporations require a workforce that conducts their affairs according to the highest standards, and the general public expects the highest standards of conduct of geoscientists as they underwrite much of the research supported through tax dollars and the applications of this research impacts personal and societal lives. Geoscientists must have the foundations to identify ethical dilemmas in the first instance, and to have the ethical decision-making skills to either prevent, mitigate or otherwise address ethical issues that arise in professional practice. Awareness of ethical issues arises in many dimensions: Ethics and self (engaging self-monitoring and self-regulating behaviors); Ethics and profession (working according to professional standards); Ethics and society (communicating effectively to policy makers and the general public about the underlying science that informs public policy); and, Ethics and Earth (recognizing the unique responsibilities of geoscientists in the stewardship of Earth). To meet these ethical challenges, training of future geoscientists must be done a) at the introductory level as all students should be aware of ethical implications of geoscience concepts as they impact societal issues; undergraduate geoscience majors need to be explicitly trained in the standards and norms of the geoscience community of practice; graduate students need to be fully prepared to deal with ethical issues in future employment in the academy, government agencies or the industry. We have developed a comprehensive website, Teaching Geoethics Across the Geoscience Curriculum to support instruction in ethics at all levels: http://serc.carleton.edu/geoethics/index.html

Individual and social discounting in a viscous population.

PubMed

Sozou, Peter D

2009-08-22

Social discounting in economics involves applying a diminishing weight to community-wide benefits or costs into the future. It impacts on public policy decisions involving future positive or negative effects, but there is no consensus on the correct basis for determining the social discount rate. This study presents an evolutionary biological framework for social discounting. How an organism should value future benefits to its local community is governed by the extent to which members of the community in the future are likely to be its kin. Trade-offs between immediate and delayed benefits to an individual or to its community are analysed for a modelled patch-structured iteroparous population with limited dispersal. It is shown that the social discount rate is generally lower than the individual (private) discount rate. The difference in the two rates is most pronounced, in ratio terms, when the dispersal level is low and the hazard rate for patch destruction is much smaller than the individual mortality rate. When decisions involve enforced collective action rather than individuals acting independently, social investment increases but the social discount rate remains the same.

Excess capacity: markets regulation, and values.

PubMed Central

Madden, C W

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the conceptual bases for the conflicting views of excess capacity in healthcare markets and their application in the context of today's turbulent environment. STUDY SETTING: The policy and research literature of the past three decades. STUDY DESIGN: The theoretical perspectives of alternative economic schools of thought are used to support different policy positions with regard to excess capacity. Changes in these policy positions over time are linked to changes in the economic and political environment of the period. The social values implied by this history are articulated. DATA COLLECTION: Standard library search procedures are used to identify relevant literature. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Alternative policy views of excess capacity in healthcare markets rely on differing theoretical foundations. Changes in the context in which policy decisions are made over time affect the dominant theoretical framework and, therefore, the dominant policy view of excess capacity. CONCLUSIONS: In the 1990s, multiple perspectives of optimal capacity still exist. However, our evolving history suggests a set of persistent values that should guide future policy in this area. PMID:10029502

How trust and emotions influence policy acceptance: The case of the Irish water charges.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Sanchez, Carla; Schuitema, Geertje; Claudy, Marius; Sancho-Esper, Franco

2018-02-01

The introduction of new policies can evoke strong emotional reactions by the public. Yet, social-psychological research has paid little attention to affective determinants of individual-level policy acceptance. Building on recent theoretical and empirical advances around emotions and decision-making, we evaluate how people's trust and integral emotions function as important antecedents of cognitive evaluations, and subsequent acceptance of policies. We test our hypotheses within a sample of Irish citizens (n = 505), who were subject to the introduction of water charges in 2015. In line with our hypotheses, results show that general trust in government shapes emotions regarding water charges, which in turn, directly and via expected costs and benefits, influence policy acceptance. Additionally, we find that negative emotions have a larger direct effect on policy acceptance than positive emotions. Specifically, 'anger' was the main negative emotion that influenced the acceptance of the water charge. We conclude by discussing directions for future research around emotions and policy acceptance. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Affecting the supply of rural physicians.

PubMed Central

Cooper, J K; Heald, K; Samuels, M

1977-01-01

A model describing physician supply and distribution is described. Two surveys obtained information to examine elements of the model. The first survey identified a group of primary care physicians that had considered rural locations but ultimately selected an urban location. This sub-group, 29 per cent of the primary care supply pool, received a follow-up survey to provide more information about how they made their choice. About one-half of them finally chose on the basis of factors other than metropolitan/non-metropolitan considerations. For this half, some of the factors that entered into the decision were the availability of physician specialists, nearby hospital facilities, and access to medical school programs. Such factors could be affected by future policy decisions, but the cost is unknown. Even if such policy decisions were made, and appropriate programs instituted, the results would probably not solve the problem of disproportionate physician distribution. The most likely-to-succeed approach to increasing the number of rural physicians remains that of increasing the number of entrants to medical school with a rural background. PMID:888993

Species distributions models in wildlife planning: agricultural policy and wildlife management in the great plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Jorgensen, Christopher; Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Zach, Eric S.; Decker, Karie L.

2017-01-01

We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto a series of alternative future landscape scenarios for Nebraska, USA. Based on our scenarios, we qualitatively and quantitatively estimated the effects of agricultural policy decisions on pheasant populations across Nebraska, in specific management regions, and at wildlife management areas. 

How scientists view the public, the media and the political process.

PubMed

Besley, John C; Nisbet, Matthew

2013-08-01

We review past studies on how scientists view the public, the goals of communication, the performance and impacts of the media, and the role of the public in policy decision-making. We add to these past findings by analyzing two recent large-scale surveys of scientists in the UK and US. These analyses show that scientists believe the public is uninformed about science and therefore prone to errors in judgment and policy preferences. Scientists are critical of media coverage generally, yet they also tend to rate favorably their own experience dealing with journalists, believing that such interactions are important both for promoting science literacy and for career advancement. Scientists believe strongly that they should have a role in public debates and view policy-makers as the most important group with which to engage. Few scientists view their role as an enabler of direct public participation in decision-making through formats such as deliberative meetings, and do not believe there are personal benefits for investing in these activities. Implications for future research are discussed, in particular the need to examine how ideology and selective information sources shape scientists' views.

The Future of Electricity Resource Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kahrl, Fredrich; Mills, Andrew; Lavin, Luke

Electricity resource planning is the process of identifying longer-term investments to meet electricity reliability requirements and public policy goals at a reasonable cost. Resource planning processes provide a forum for regulators, electric utilities, and electricity industry stakeholders to evaluate the economic, environmental, and social benefits and costs of different investment options. By facilitating a discussion on future goals, challenges and strategies, resource planning processes often play an important role in shaping utility business decisions. Resource planning emerged more than three decades ago in an era of transition, where declining electricity demand and rising costs spurred fundamental changes in electricity industrymore » regulation and structure. Despite significant changes in the industry, resource planning continues to play an important role in supporting investment decision making. Over the next two decades, the electricity industry will again undergo a period of transition, driven by technological change, shifting customer preferences and public policy goals. This transition will bring about a gradual paradigm shift in resource planning, requiring changes in scope, approaches and methods. Even as it changes, resource planning will continue to be a central feature of the electricity industry. Its functions — ensuring the reliability of high voltage (“bulk”) power systems, enabling oversight of regulated utilities and facilitating low-cost compliance with public policy goals — are likely to grow in importance as the electricity industry enters a new period of technological, economic and regulatory change. This report examines the future of electricity resource planning in the context of a changing electricity industry. The report examines emerging issues and evolving practices in five key areas that will shape the future of resource planning: (1) central-scale generation, (2) distributed generation, (3) demand-side resources, (4) transmission and (5) uncertainty and risk management. The analysis draws on a review of recent resource plans for 10 utilities that reflect some of the U.S. electricity industry’s extensive diversity.« less

Overview of research addressing ethical dimensions of participation in traumatic stress studies: autonomy and beneficence.

PubMed

Newman, Elana; Kaloupek, Danny

2009-12-01

One element of the design of human research studies is ethically informed decision-making. Key issues include the safety, costs, and benefits of participation. Historically, much of this decision-making was based on opinion rather than formal evidence. Recently, however, investigators in the traumatic stress field have begun to collect data that are relevant to these decisions. In this article, the authors focus on issues emanating from the ethical concepts of autonomy and respect for persons and beneficence and nonmaleficence, and then summarize relevant evidence from studies with trauma-exposed individuals. Discussion addresses implications of this evidence for research practice and policy, and identifies some potentially informative data collections opportunities for future trauma studies.

Evaluation of Energy Policy Instruments for the Adoption of Renewable Energy: Case of Wind Energy in the Pacific Northwest U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abotah, Remal

The wide use of renewable energy technologies for generating electricity can be seen as one way of meeting environmental and climate change challenges along with a progression to a low-carbon economy. A large number of policy instruments have been formed and employed to support the adoption of renewable energy technologies in the power generation sector. However, the success of these policies in achieving their goals relies on how effective they are in satisfying their targets and thus increasing renewable energy adoption. One measurement for effectiveness of policy instruments can be their contribution to the input of the process of renewable energy adoption and their effect on satisfying regional goal. The objective of this research is evaluate the effectiveness of energy policy instruments on increasing the adoption of renewable energy by developing a comprehensive evaluation model. Criteria used in this assessment depend on five perspectives that are perceived by decision makers as important for adoption process. The decision model linked the perspectives to policy targets and various energy policy instruments. These perspectives are: economic, social, political, environmental and technical. The research implemented the hierarchical decision model (HDM) to construct a generalized policy assessment framework. Data for wind energy adoption in the Pacific Northwest region were collected as a case study and application for the model. Experts' qualitative judgments were collected and quantified using the pair-wise comparison method and the final rankings and effectiveness of policy alternatives with respect to the mission were identified. Results of this research identified economic feasibility improvement of renewable energy projects as the most influential perspective and that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits are the two most effective criteria to accomplish that. The research also applied sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis to identify the effect of regional perspectives future priority changes on determining the most effective policy for this perspective. Results showed that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits were found to be the two most effective policies among the alternatives assessed. The research model and outcome can serve as policy check tool in policy making for renewable energy development in any region. Based on the overall research findings, policymakers can apply specific policy instruments to support adoption efforts for any given scenario and regional emphasis.

Migration in Deltas: An Integrated Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Hutton, Craig W.; Lazar, Attila; Adger, W. Neil; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Vincent, Katharine; Rahman, Munsur; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Sugata, Hazra; Ghosh, Tuhin; Codjoe, Sam; Appeaning-Addo, Kwasi

2017-04-01

Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level rise, with the potential for mass displacement of exposed populations. The assumption of mass displacement of populations in deltas requires a comprehensive reassessment in the light of present and future migration in deltas, including the potential role of adaptation to influence these decisions. At present, deltas are subject to multiple drivers of environmental change and often have high population densities as they are accessible and productive ecosystems. Climate change, catchment management, subsidence and land cover change drive environmental change across all deltas. Populations in deltas are also highly mobile, with significant urbanization trends and the growth of large cities and mega-cities within or adjacent to deltas across Asia and Africa. Such migration is driven primarily by economic opportunity, yet environmental change in general, and climate change in particular, are likely to play an increasing direct and indirect role in future migration trends. The policy challenges centre on the role of migration within regional adaptation strategies to climate change; the protection of vulnerable populations; and the future of urban settlements within deltas. This paper reviews current knowledge on migration and adaptation to environmental change to discern specific issues pertinent to delta regions. It develops a new integrated methodology to assess present and future migration in deltas using the Volta delta in Ghana, Mahanadi delta in India and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta across India and Bangladesh. The integrated method focuses on: biophysical changes and spatial distribution of vulnerability; demographic changes and migration decision-making using multiple methods and data; macro-economic trends and scenarios in the deltas; and the policies and governance structures that constrain and enable adaptation. The analysis is facilitated by a range of consistent scenarios from global to delta scales, developed in consultation with major stakeholders. Initial results suggest that migration decision-making strongly interacts with diverse measures for adaptation of land, water and agricultural management. A key normative challenge is to identify the parameters of successful migration and adaptation across delta regions, to inform policy analysis and formulation. Key words: Deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation Acknowledgement: DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

2010-12-01

We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by participating scientists and water managers throughout the process. Lessons learned include: RESULTS: The research process needs to generate academic (peer-reviewed publications, grant proposals) and applied (usable dataset, communication support) products. Additionally, the project also strives for intangible products, e.g., the research currently continues to support efforts to predict future regional hydroclimatology, whereas management requires a paradigm shift toward anticipation of needs for adapting to multiple possible futures. APPROACH: Collaborative research is not a one-off event or consultation, but a process of mutual engagement that needs to allow for adaptive evolution of the project and its organization. TOPICS: With the acceptance of hydroclimatic non-stationarity, the focus of water managers shifts from reducing scientific uncertainty to enhancing their ability to present academically and politically defensible scenarios to their constituencies. This requires addressing the related need for exploring how to deal with political and institutional uncertainties in decision-making.

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy vulnerabilities under large uncertainty about the future socio-economic and climatic changes and to guide policymakers in charting a more sustainable pathway and avoiding maladaptive development pathways. The results show that water scarcity is increasing in up to 83% of all land area under a high-emission scenario (RCP 6.0-SSP3). Importantly, the range of uncertainty in projected water scarcity is increasing; in some regions by several orders of magnitude (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Europe, Central Asia). This is further illustrated by focusing on a set of large river basins that will be subject both to substantial changes in basin-wide water scarcity and to strong increases in the overall range of uncertainty (e.g. the Niger, Indus, Yangtze). These conditions pose a significant challenge for water management options in those vulnerable basins, complicating decisions on needed investments in water supply infrastructure and other system improvements, and leading to the degradation of valuable resources such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems. The results of this study call for careful and deliberative design of water policy interventions under a wide range of socio-economic and climate conditions.

Self-regulation and the response to concerns about food and beverage marketing to children in the United States.

PubMed

Wilde, Parke

2009-03-01

The Institute of Medicine reported in 2005 that food and beverage marketing to children and youth is "out of balance with healthful diets". The dominant policy response in the United States has been to encourage self-regulation by the food, beverage, advertising, and media industries. From a nutrition perspective, this deference to the private sector may seem surprising. This article reviews current economic and legal perspectives on food marketing to children that are motivating the policy decision to attempt a period of self-regulation. The empirical literature on this topic has been reinvigorated by new data on marketing practices and expenditures. The article concludes by considering whether more directive policies are possible in the future.

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

PubMed

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

2018-06-01

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of HTA research on policy decision-making.

PubMed

Youngkong, Sitaporn

2014-05-01

This article provides an overview of the potential uses of health technology assessment (HTA) in health technology or health intervention-related policy decision-making. It summarises the role of HTA in policy planning, health system investment, price negotiation, development of clinical practice guidelines, and communication with health professionals. While the multifaceted nature of HTA means that some aspects of the data can result in conflicting conclusions, the comprehensive approach of HTA is still recommended. To help minimise the potential conflicts within HTA data, a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach is recommended as a way to assess a number of decision criteria simultaneously. A combination of HTA with MCDA allows policy decision-making to be undertaken in an empirically rigorous and rational way. This combination can be used to support policy decision-makers in Thailand and help them prioritise topics for assessment and make informed health benefit package coverage decisions. This approach enhances the legitimacy of policy decisions by increasing the transparency, systematic nature, and inclusiveness of the process.

Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Brewington, L.; Finucane, M.

2015-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui in Hawai'i has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to both surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for sustainable future freshwater supply in Hawai'i requires adaptive policies and decision-making that emphasizes private and public partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. We have downscaled dynamical climate models to 1 km resolution in Maui and coupled them with a USGS Water Budget model and a participatory scenario building process to quantify future changes in island-scale climate and groundwater recharge under different land uses. Although these projections are uncertain, the integrated nature of the Pacific RISA research program has allowed us to take a multi-pronged approach to facilitate the uptake of climate information into policy and management. This presentation details the ongoing work to support the development of Hawai'i's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of ~100 decision-makers in state and local government, watershed restoration, agriculture, and conservation to 1) determine the type of information (climate variables, land use and development, agricultural practices) they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of nested scenarios that represent alternative climate and management futures. This integration of knowledge is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives of complex futures comprised of information at multiple scales. We will present an overview of the downscaling, scenario building, hydrological modeling processes, and stakeholder response.

Advance care planning for nursing home residents with dementia: policy vs. practice.

PubMed

Ampe, Sophie; Sevenants, Aline; Smets, Tinne; Declercq, Anja; Van Audenhove, Chantal

2016-03-01

The aims of this study were: to evaluate the advance care planning policy for people with dementia in nursing homes; to gain insight in the involvement of residents with dementia and their families in advance care planning, and in the relationship between the policy and the actual practice of advance care planning. Through advance care planning, nursing home residents with dementia are involved in care decisions, anticipating their reduced decision-making capacity. However, advance care planning is rarely realized for this group. Prevalence and outcomes have been researched, but hardly any research has focused on the involvement of residents/families in advance care planning. Observational cross-sectional study in 20 nursing homes. The ACP audit assessed the views of the nursing homes' staff on the advance care planning policy. In addition, individual conversations were analysed with 'ACP criteria' (realization of advance care planning) and the 'OPTION' instrument (involvement of residents/families). June 2013-September 2013. Nursing homes generally met three quarters of the pre-defined criteria for advance care planning policy. In almost half of the conversations, advance care planning was explained and discussed substantively. Generally, healthcare professionals only managed to involve residents/families on a baseline skill level. There were no statistically significant correlations between policy and practice. The evaluations of the policy were promising, but the actual practice needs improvement. Future assessment of both policy and practice is recommended. Further research should focus on communication interventions for implementing advance care planning in the daily practice. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A rapidly changing global medicines environment: How adaptable are funding decision-making systems?

PubMed

Leopold, Christine; Morgan, Steven G; Wagner, Anita K

2017-06-01

With the launch of very highly priced therapies and sudden price increases of generics, pressures on health systems have drastically increased. We aimed to elicit opinions of key decision makers responsible for national assessment and funding decisions on their experiences to adapt to these new realities. Through interviews with decision makers of pharmaceutical assessment and/or funding agencies, we describe the challenges systems are currently facing, systems' responses and systems' characteristics facilitating or hindering responses to changes and overarching topics for the future. Among the most common challenges are increased funding pressures, increased uncertainty and lack of transparency in decision-making. Systems' responses include utilization management, changing of assessment processes, stakeholder engagement and a focus on outcomes and on coordinated negotiations. Integrated delivery systems, fixed health care budgets and geographic and historical characteristics facilitate or sometimes hinder responses to change. Future policy emphasis lays on expanding data structures, managing the exit of drugs funded early, and implementing processes for communications with patients and the public. Going forward emphasis has to be given to structured communications with all stakeholders with a specific emphasis on the broader public and patients about financial limits and priority setting in health care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biogas Potential in the United States (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2013-10-01

Biogas has received increased attention as an alternative energy source in the United States. The factsheet provides information about the biogas (methane) potential from various sources in the country (by county and state) and estimates the power generation and transportation fuels production (renewable natural gas) potential from these biogas sources. It provides valuable information to the industry, academia and policy makers in support of their future decisions.

Revisiting Bakke and Diversity-Based Admissions: Constitutional Law, Social Science Research, and the University of Michigan Affirmative Action Cases. Briefing Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ancheta, Angelo N.

This paper explains how upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decisions in Gratz v. Bollinger and Grutter v. Bollinger are expected to broadly affect the future of race-conscious affirmative action. In these cases, the Supreme Court addresses the constitutionality of admissions policies at the University of Michigan designed to promote educational diversity…

An open source hydroeconomic model for California's water supply system: PyVIN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, M. S.; White, E.; Herman, J. D.; Hart, Q.; Merz, J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Lund, J. R.

2016-12-01

Models help operators and decision makers explore and compare different management and policy alternatives, better allocate scarce resources, and predict the future behavior of existing or proposed water systems. Hydroeconomic models are useful tools to increase benefits or decrease costs of managing water. Bringing hydrology and economics together, these models provide a framework for different disciplines that share similar objectives. This work proposes a new model to evaluate operation and adaptation strategies under existing and future hydrologic conditions for California's interconnected water system. This model combines the network structure of CALVIN, a statewide optimization model for California's water infrastructure, along with an open source solver written in the Python programming language. With the flexibilities of the model, reservoir operations, including water supply and hydropower, groundwater pumping, and the Delta water operations and requirements can now be better represented. Given time series of hydrologic inputs to the model, typical outputs include urban, agricultural and wildlife refuge water deliveries and shortage costs, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater systems, and insights into policy and management decisions, such as capacity expansion and groundwater management policies. Water market operations also represented in the model, allocating water from lower-valued users to higher-valued users. PyVIN serves as a cross-platform, extensible model to evaluate systemwide water operations. PyVIN separates data from the model structure, enabling model to be easily applied to other parts of the world where water is a scarce resource.

The application of theories of the policy process to obesity prevention: a systematic review and meta-synthesis.

PubMed

Clarke, Brydie; Swinburn, Boyd; Sacks, Gary

2016-10-13

Theories of the policy process are recommended as tools to help explain both policy stasis and change. A systematic review of the application of such theoretical frameworks within the field of obesity prevention policy was conducted. A meta-synthesis was also undertaken to identify the key influences on policy decision-making. The review identified 17 studies of obesity prevention policy underpinned by political science theories. The majority of included studies were conducted in the United States (US), with significant heterogeneity in terms of policy level (e.g., national, state) studied, areas of focus, and methodologies used. Many of the included studies were methodologically limited, in regard to rigour and trustworthiness. Prominent themes identified included the role of groups and networks, political institutions, and political system characteristics, issue framing, the use of evidence, personal values and beliefs, prevailing political ideology, and timing. The limited application of political science theories indicates a need for future theoretically based research into the complexity of policy-making and multiple influences on obesity prevention policy processes.

Involving young people in health promotion, research and policy-making: practical recommendations.

PubMed

Aceves-Martins, Magaly; Aleman-Diaz, Aixa Y; Giralt, Montse; Solà, Rosa

2018-05-18

Youth is a dynamic and complex transition period in life where many factors jeopardise its present and future health. Youth involvement enables young people to influence processes and decisions that affect them, leading to changes in themselves and their environment (e.g. peers, services, communities and policies); this strategy could be applied to improve health and prevent diseases. Nonetheless, scientific evidence of involving youth in health-related programmes is scarce. The aim of this paper is to describe youth involvement as a health promotion strategy and to compile practical recommendations for health promoters, researchers and policy-makers interested in successful involvement of young people in health-related programmes. These suggestions aim to encourage a positive working synergy between adults and youth during the development, implementation and evaluation of policies, research and/or health promotion efforts that target adolescents.

Suggesting a new European language policy.

PubMed

Nelde, Peter H

2004-01-01

Conflict is the most intriguing aspect of contact linguistics. Throughout history ever since the Tower of Babel was left unfinished, contacts between speakers of different languages have unavoidably resulted in conflicts between speakers of those languages. Without any doubt, the European Union (EU)--above all after the decision to enlarge the community--has accepted the multidisciplinary symbolic function of language and culture as a basis for European political unification. Accordingly, European Union policy makers have had to analyze conflicts caused by monolingualism and multilingualism, all aspects of contact linguistics. Can these conflicts be solved, minimized or neutralized by strategies of language planning, language policies and language politics? Initial results of European language policy strategies permit at least a cautious measure of optimism and open broad perspectives for the future of a New Multilingualism which will be discussed in our contribution.

Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

PubMed Central

West, R R

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. DESIGN: A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. SETTING: A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. RESULTS: Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. CONCLUSIONS: The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision. PMID:8935452

Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

PubMed

West, R R

1996-06-01

To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision.

Decentralized control of Markovian decision processes: Existence Sigma-admissable policies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenland, A.

1980-01-01

The problem of formulating and analyzing Markov decision models having decentralized information and decision patterns is examined. Included are basic examples as well as the mathematical preliminaries needed to understand Markov decision models and, further, to superimpose decentralized decision structures on them. The notion of a variance admissible policy for the model is introduced and it is proved that there exist (possibly nondeterministic) optional policies from the class of variance admissible policies. Directions for further research are explored.

Decision making for multiple utilization of water resources in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Memon, Pyar Ali

1989-09-01

The Clutha is the largest river in New Zealand. The last two decades have witnessed major conflicts centered on the utilization of the water resources of the upper Clutha river. These conflicts have by no means been finally resolved. The focus of this article is on institutional arrangements for water resource management on the Clutha, with particular reference to the decision-making processes that have culminated in the building of the high dam. It critically evaluates recent experiences and comments on future prospects for resolving resource use conflicts rationally through planning for multiple utilization in a climate of market led policies of the present government. The study demonstrates the inevitable conflicts that can arise within a public bureaucracy that combines dual responsibilities for policy making and operational functions. Hitherto, central government has been able to manipulate the water resource allocation process to its advantage because of a lack of clear separation between its two roles as a policy maker and developer. The conflicts that have manifested themselves during the last two decades over the Clutha should be seen as part of a wider public debate during the last two decades concerning resource utilization in New Zealand. The Clutha controversy was preceded by comparable concerns over the rising of the level of Lake Manapouri during the 1960s and has been followed by the debate over the “think big” resource development projects during the 1980s. The election of the fourth Labour government in 1983 has heralded a political and economic policy shift in New Zealand towards minimizing the role of public intervention in resource allocation and major structural reforms in the relative roles of central and regional government in resource management. The significance of these changes pose important implications for the future management of the Clutha.

Balancing the risks and benefits of genomic data sharing: genome research participants' perspectives.

PubMed

Oliver, J M; Slashinski, M J; Wang, T; Kelly, P A; Hilsenbeck, S G; McGuire, A L

2012-01-01

Technological advancements are rapidly propelling the field of genome research forward, while lawmakers attempt to keep apace with the risks these advances bear. Balancing normative concerns of maximizing data utility and protecting human subjects, whose privacy is at risk due to the identifiability of DNA data, are central to policy decisions. Research on genome research participants making real-time data sharing decisions is limited; yet, these perspectives could provide critical information to ongoing deliberations. We conducted a randomized trial of 3 consent types affording varying levels of control over data release decisions. After debriefing participants about the randomization process, we invited them to a follow-up interview to assess their attitudes toward genetic research, privacy and data sharing. Participants were more restrictive in their reported data sharing preferences than in their actual data sharing decisions. They saw both benefits and risks associated with sharing their genomic data, but risks were seen as less concrete or happening in the future, and were largely outweighed by purported benefits. Policymakers must respect that participants' assessment of the risks and benefits of data sharing and their privacy-utility determinations, which are associated with their final data release decisions, vary. In order to advance the ethical conduct of genome research, proposed policy changes should carefully consider these stakeholder perspectives. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Using strategic foresight to assess conservation opportunity.

PubMed

Cook, Carly N; Wintle, Bonnie C; Aldrich, Stephen C; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-12-01

The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time-consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward-looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad-minded, forward-looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York State. The plan identified solutions that should be effective across a range of possible futures. Illustrating the application of strategic foresight to identify conservation opportunities should provide the impetus for decision makers to explore strategic foresight as a way to support more proactive conservation policy, planning, and management. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

School Boards as Policy-Makers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Peter

Decision-making in general and policy decisions in particular are the prime responsibility of school boards because policies are control mechanisms by which trustees assert local control. Policy decisions differ from others in their concern with values and purposes and the legitimization of the organization to society at large. Additionally, they…

Helping Health Care Providers and Clinical Scientists Understand Apparently Irrational Policy Decisions.

PubMed

Demeter, Sandor J

2016-12-21

Health care providers (HCP) and clinical scientists (CS) are generally most comfortable using evidence-based rational decision-making models. They become very frustrated when policymakers make decisions that, on the surface, seem irrational and unreasonable. However, such decisions usually make sense when analysed properly. The goal of this paper to provide a basic theoretical understanding of major policy models, to illustrate which models are most prevalent in publicly funded health care systems, and to propose a policy analysis framework to better understand the elements that drive policy decision-making. The proposed policy framework will also assist HCP and CS achieve greater success with their own proposals.

National malaria vector control policy: an analysis of the decision to scale-up larviciding in Nigeria.

PubMed

Tesfazghi, Kemi; Hill, Jenny; Jones, Caroline; Ranson, Hilary; Worrall, Eve

2016-02-01

New vector control tools are needed to combat insecticide resistance and reduce malaria transmission. The World Health Organization (WHO) endorses larviciding as a supplementary vector control intervention using larvicides recommended by the WHO Pesticides Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES). The decision to scale-up larviciding in Nigeria provided an opportunity to investigate the factors influencing policy adoption and assess the role that actors and evidence play in the policymaking process, in order to draw lessons that help accelerate the uptake of new methods for vector control. A retrospective policy analysis was carried out using in-depth interviews with national level policy stakeholders to establish normative national vector control policy or strategy decision-making processes and compare these with the process that led to the decision to scale-up larviciding. The interviews were transcribed, then coded and analyzed using NVivo10. Data were coded according to pre-defined themes from an analytical policy framework developed a priori. Stakeholders reported that the larviciding decision-making process deviated from the normative vector control decision-making process. National malaria policy is normally strongly influenced by WHO recommendations, but the potential of larviciding to contribute to national economic development objectives through larvicide production in Nigeria was cited as a key factor shaping the decision. The larviciding decision involved a restricted range of policy actors, and notably excluded actors that usually play advisory, consultative and evidence generation roles. Powerful actors limited the access of some actors to the policy processes and content. This may have limited the influence of scientific evidence in this policy decision. This study demonstrates that national vector control policy change can be facilitated by linking malaria control objectives to wider socioeconomic considerations and through engaging powerful policy champions to drive policy change and thereby accelerate access to new vector control tools. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Robust climate policies under uncertainty: a comparison of robust decision making and info-gap methods.

PubMed

Hall, Jim W; Lempert, Robert J; Keller, Klaus; Hackbarth, Andrew; Mijere, Christophe; McInerney, David J

2012-10-01

This study compares two widely used approaches for robustness analysis of decision problems: the info-gap method originally developed by Ben-Haim and the robust decision making (RDM) approach originally developed by Lempert, Popper, and Bankes. The study uses each approach to evaluate alternative paths for climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions given the potential for nonlinear threshold responses in the climate system, significant uncertainty about such a threshold response and a variety of other key parameters, as well as the ability to learn about any threshold responses over time. Info-gap and RDM share many similarities. Both represent uncertainty as sets of multiple plausible futures, and both seek to identify robust strategies whose performance is insensitive to uncertainties. Yet they also exhibit important differences, as they arrange their analyses in different orders, treat losses and gains in different ways, and take different approaches to imprecise probabilistic information. The study finds that the two approaches reach similar but not identical policy recommendations and that their differing attributes raise important questions about their appropriate roles in decision support applications. The comparison not only improves understanding of these specific methods, it also suggests some broader insights into robustness approaches and a framework for comparing them. © 2012 RAND Corporation.

Voices of decision makers on evidence-based policy: A case of evolving TB/HIV co-infection policy in India.

PubMed

Reddy, K Srikanth; Sahay, Seema

2016-01-01

This study explores decision makers' perspectives on evidence-based policy (EBP) development using the case of TB/HIV co-infection in India. Twelve in-depth interviews were conducted with purposively selected key national and international policy decision makers in India. Verbatim transcripts were processed and analysed thematically using QSR (NUD*IST 6). The decision makers were unequivocal in recognizing the TB/HIV co-infection as an important public health issue in India and stated the problem to be different than Africa. The need of having a "third programme" for co-infection was not felt. According to them, the public health management of this co-infection must be within the realm of these two programmes. The study also emphasized on decision makers' perspectives on evidence and the process of utilization of evidence for decision-making for co-infection. Study findings showed global evidence was not always accepted by the decision makers and study shows several examples of decision makers demanding local evidence for policy decisions. Decision makers did make interim policies based on global evidence but most of the time their mandate was to get local evidence. Thus, operations research/implementation science especially multi-centric studies emerge as important strategy for EBP development. Researcher-policy maker interface was a gap where role of researcher as aggressive communicator of research findings was expected.

ESTIMATING A DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LENGTH OF STAY AND FUTURE RECIDIVISM IN SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS*

PubMed Central

Loughran, Thomas A.; Mulvey, Edward P.; Schubert, Carol A.; Fagan, Jeffrey; Piquero, Alex R.; Losoya, Sandra H.

2009-01-01

The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a dose-response relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self-reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self-reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined. PMID:20052309

A vital fluid: risk, controversy and the politics of blood donation in the era of "mad cow disease".

PubMed

O'Neill, Kate

2003-10-01

This article examines the reasons for, and likely impact of, the decision by the US and other countries to permanently defer blood donors who have spent time in Britain or Europe, for fear they may transmit new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), the human form of "mad cow disease". It begins by discussing how vCJD and blood transfusion are linked, and how these have been translated into policy. First, maintaining a safe and stable supply of blood entails not only maintaining the trust of recipients in the system, but also that of donors, who need to be assured that their blood will be welcomed and used. Often, the balance, once upset, is regained by sacrificing donors, but accompanying costs might also be high. Second, the article highlights the impact of various forms of globalization -of commerce, disease and travel, and immigration- on blood policies and public and policy attitudes. Third, it assesses the decision by the US to restrict blood donations from Europeans and travelers to combat such a pervasive risk. The conclusion discusses how donor deferral policies may be interpreted by the public in the light of earlier discussions, and raises issues for future research.

Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Johanna

2017-04-01

In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

SCIENCE, SCIENTISTS, AND POLICY ADVOCACY

EPA Science Inventory

To effectively resolve many current ecological policy issues, decision-makers require an array of scientific information. Sometimes scientific information is summarized for decision-makers by policy analysts or others, but often it comes directly from scientists to decision-maker...

The Future of Health Care Reform: What Is Driving Enrollment?

PubMed

Callaghan, Timothy H; Jacobs, Lawrence R

2017-04-01

Against a backdrop of ongoing operational challenges, insurance market turbulence, and the ever present pull of partisanship, enrollment in the ACA's programs has soared and significant variations have developed across states in terms of their pace of coverage expansion. Our article explores why ACA enrollment has varied so dramatically across states. We explore the potential influence of party control, presidential cueing, administrative capacity, the reverberating effects of ACA policy decisions, affluence, and unemployment on enrollment. Our multivariate analysis finds that party control dominated early state decision making, but that relative enrollment in insurance exchanges and the Medicaid expansion are driven by a changing mix of political and administrative factors. Health politics is entering a new era as Republicans replace the ACA and devolve significant discretion to states to administer Medicaid and other programs. Our findings offer insights into future directions in health reform and in learning and diffusion. Copyright © 2017 by Duke University Press.

Stakeholder engagement in policy development: challenges and opportunities for human genomics

PubMed Central

Lemke, Amy A.; Harris-Wai, Julie N.

2015-01-01

Along with rapid advances in human genomics, policies governing genomic data and clinical technologies have proliferated. Stakeholder engagement is widely lauded as an important methodology for improving clinical, scientific, and public health policy decision making. The purpose of this paper is to examine how stakeholder engagement is used to develop policies in genomics research and public health areas, as well as to identify future priorities for conducting evidence-based stakeholder engagements. We focus on exemplars in biobanking and newborn screening to illustrate a variety of current stakeholder engagement in policy-making efforts. Each setting provides an important context for examining the methods of obtaining and integrating informed stakeholder voices into the policy-making process. While many organizations have an interest in engaging stakeholders with regard to genomic policy issues, there is broad divergence with respect to the stakeholders involved, the purpose of engagements, when stakeholders are engaged during policy development, methods of engagement, and the outcomes reported. Stakeholder engagement in genomics policy development is still at a nascent stage. Several challenges of using stakeholder engagement as a tool for genomics policy development remain, and little evidence regarding how to best incorporate stakeholder feedback into policy-making processes is currently available. PMID:25764215

Stakeholder engagement in policy development: challenges and opportunities for human genomics.

PubMed

Lemke, Amy A; Harris-Wai, Julie N

2015-12-01

Along with rapid advances in human genomics, policies governing genomic data and clinical technologies have proliferated. Stakeholder engagement is widely lauded as an important methodology for improving clinical, scientific, and public health policy decision making. The purpose of this paper is to examine how stakeholder engagement is used to develop policies in genomics research and public health areas, as well as to identify future priorities for conducting evidence-based stakeholder engagements. We focus on exemplars in biobanking and newborn screening to illustrate a variety of current stakeholder engagement in policy-making efforts. Each setting provides an important context for examining the methods of obtaining and integrating informed stakeholder voices into the policy-making process. While many organizations have an interest in engaging stakeholders with regard to genomic policy issues, there is broad divergence with respect to the stakeholders involved, the purpose of engagements, when stakeholders are engaged during policy development, methods of engagement, and the outcomes reported. Stakeholder engagement in genomics policy development is still at a nascent stage. Several challenges of using stakeholder engagement as a tool for genomics policy development remain, and little evidence regarding how to best incorporate stakeholder feedback into policy-making processes is currently available.

The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

2017-12-01

The second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR-2) includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (including coastal ocean waters), information about anthropogenic drivers, and implications for policy and carbon management. SOCCR-2 includes new focus areas such as soil carbon, arctic and boreal ecosystems, tribal lands, and greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane is considered to a greater extent than before. SOCCR-2 will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as providing information to support science-based management decisions and policies that include climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Although the Report is still in the review process, preliminary findings indicate that North America is a net emitter of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and that natural sinks offset about 25% of emitted carbon dioxide. Combustion of fossil fuels represents the largest source of emissions, but show a decreasing trend over the last decade and a lower share (20%) of the global total compared with the previous decade. Forests, soils, grasslands, and coastal oceans comprise the largest carbon sinks, while emissions from inland waters are a significant source of carbon dioxide. The Report also documents the lateral transfers of carbon among terrestrial ecosystems and from terrestrial to near-coastal ecosystems, to complete the carbon cycle accounting. Further, the Report explores the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial and oceanic systems, and the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks based on the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. SOCCR-2 highlights key data gaps in carbon accounting frameworks, uncertainties in modeling and estimation approaches, and integrated frameworks for improving our understanding of the North American carbon cycle.

The Value of Information in Decision-Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa.

PubMed

Kim, Dohyeong; Brown, Zachary; Anderson, Richard; Mutero, Clifford; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Wiener, Jonathan; Kramer, Randall

2017-02-01

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced-based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5-21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cost analysis of post-polio certification immunization policies.

PubMed Central

Sangrujee, Nalinee; Cáceres, Victor M.; Cochi, Stephen L.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: An analysis was conducted to estimate the costs of different potential post-polio certification immunization policies currently under consideration, with the objective of providing this information to policy-makers. METHODS: We analyzed three global policy options: continued use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV); OPV cessation with optional inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV); and OPV cessation with universal IPV. Assumptions were made on future immunization policy decisions taken by low-, middle-, and high-income countries. We estimated the financial costs of each immunization policy, the number of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) cases, and the global costs of maintaining an outbreak response capacity. The financial costs of each immunization policy were based on estimates of the cost of polio vaccine, its administration, and coverage projections. The costs of maintaining outbreak response capacity include those associated with developing and maintaining a vaccine stockpile in addition to laboratory and epidemiological surveillance. We used the period 2005-20 as the time frame for the analysis. FINDINGS: OPV cessation with optional IPV, at an estimated cost of US$ 20,412 million, was the least costly option. The global cost of outbreak response capacity was estimated to be US$ 1320 million during 2005-20. The policy option continued use of OPV resulted in the highest number of VAPP cases. OPV cessation with universal IPV had the highest financial costs, but it also had the least number of VAPP cases. Sensitivity analyses showed that global costs were sensitive to assumptions on the cost of the vaccine. Analysis also showed that if the price per dose of IPV was reduced to US$ 0.50 for low-income countries, the cost of OPV cessation with universal IPV would be the same as the costs of continued use of OPV. CONCLUSION: Projections on the vaccine price per dose and future coverage rates were major drivers of the global costs of post-certification polio immunization. The break-even price of switching to IPV compared with continuing with OPV immunizations is US$ 0.50 per dose of IPV. However, this doses not account for the cost of vaccine-derived poliovirus cases resulting from the continued use of OPV. In addition to financial costs, risk assessments related to the re-emergence of polio will be major determinants of policy decisions. PMID:15106295

Renewable generation technology choice and policies in a competitive electricity supply industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Ashok

Renewable energy generation technologies have lower externality costs but higher private costs than fossil fuel-based generation. As a result, the choice of renewables in the future generation mix could be affected by the industry's future market-oriented structure because market objectives based on private value judgments may conflict with social policy objectives toward better environmental quality. This research assesses how renewable energy generation choices would be affected in a restructured electricity generation market. A multi-period linear programming-based model (Resource Planning Model) is used to characterize today's electricity supply market in the United States. The model simulates long-range (2000-2020) generation capacity planning and operation decisions under alternative market paradigms. Price-sensitive demand is used to simulate customer preferences in the market. Dynamically changing costs for renewables and a two-step load duration curve are used. A Reference Case represents the benchmark for a socially-optimal diffusion of renewables and a basis for comparing outcomes under alternative market structures. It internalizes externality costs associated with emissions of sulfur dioxide (SOsb2), nitrous oxides (NOsbx), and carbon dioxide (COsb2). A Competitive Case represents a market with many generation suppliers and decision-making based on private costs. Finally, a Market Power Case models the extreme case of market power: monopoly. The results suggest that the share of renewables would decrease (and emissions would increase) considerably in both the Competitive and the Market Power Cases with respect to the Reference Case. The reduction is greater in the Market Power Case due to pricing decisions under existing supply capability. The research evaluates the following environmental policy options that could overcome market failures in achieving an appropriate level of renewable generation: COsb2 emissions tax, SOsb2 emissions cap, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and enhanced research and development (R&D). RPS would best ensure an appropriate share of renewables, whereas SOsb2 emissions caps would not support a shift to renewables in an era of inexpensive natural gas. The effectiveness of the policies are dependent on the market structure. If market power exists, the analyses indicate that generally higher levels of intervention would be necessary to achieve a shift to renewables.

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

[Which research is needed to support clinical decision-making on integrative medicine? Can comparative effectiveness research close the gap?].

PubMed

Witt, Claudia M; Huang, Wen-jing; Lao, Lixing; Berman, Brian M

2013-08-01

In clinical research on complementary and integrative medicine, experts and scientists have often pursued a research agenda in spite of an incomplete understanding of the needs of end users. Consequently, the majority of previous clinical trials have mainly assessed the efficacy of interventions. Scant data is available on their effectiveness. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) promises to support decision makers by generating evidence that compares the benefits and harms of best care options. This evidence, more generalizable than evidence generated by traditional randomized clinical trials (RCTs), is better suited to inform real-world care decisions. An emphasis on CER supports the development of the evidence base for clinical and policy decision-making. Whereas in most areas of complementary and integrative medicine data on CER is scarce, available acupuncture research already contributes to CER evidence. This paper will introduce CER and make suggestions for future research.

Which research is needed to support clinical decision-making on integrative medicine?- Can comparative effectiveness research close the gap?

PubMed

Witt, Claudia M; Huang, Wen-jing; Lao, Lixing; Bm, Berman

2012-10-01

In clinical research on complementary and integrative medicine, experts and scientists have often pursued a research agenda in spite of an incomplete understanding of the needs of end users. Consequently, the majority of previous clinical trials have mainly assessed the efficacy of interventions. Scant data is available on their effectiveness. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) promises to support decision makers by generating evidence that compares the benefits and harms of the best care options. This evidence, more generalizable than the evidence generated by traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), is better suited to inform real-world care decisions. An emphasis on CER supports the development of the evidence base for clinical and policy decision-making. Whereas in most areas of complementary and integrative medicine data on comparative effectiveness is scarce, available acupuncture research already contributes to CER evidence. This paper will introduce CER and make suggestions for future research.

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations in Decision Making: A Case Study of NASA's DEVELOP National Program Methods and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childs-Gleason, L. M.; Ross, K. W.; Crepps, G.; Miller, T. N.; Favors, J. E.; Rogers, L.; Allsbrook, K. N.; Bender, M. R.; Ruiz, M. L.

2015-12-01

NASA's DEVELOP National Program fosters an immersive research environment for dual capacity building. Through rapid feasibility Earth science projects, the future workforce and current decision makers are engaged in research projects to build skills and capabilities to use Earth observation in environmental management and policy making. DEVELOP conducts over 80 projects annually, successfully building skills through partnerships with over 150 organizations and providing over 350 opportunities for project participants each year. Filling a void between short-term training courses and long-term research projects, the DEVELOP model has been successful in supporting state, local, federal and international government organizations to adopt methodologies and enhance decision making processes. This presentation will highlight programmatic best practices, feedback from participants and partner organizations, and three sample case studies of successful adoption of methods in the decision making process.

Decision support framework for evaluating the operational environment of forest bioenergy production and use: Case of four European countries.

PubMed

Pezdevšek Malovrh, Špela; Kurttila, Mikko; Hujala, Teppo; Kärkkäinen, Leena; Leban, Vasja; Lindstad, Berit H; Peters, Dörte Marie; Rhodius, Regina; Solberg, Birger; Wirth, Kristina; Zadnik Stirn, Lidija; Krč, Janez

2016-09-15

Complex policy-making situations around bioenergy production and use require examination of the operational environment of the society and a participatory approach. This paper presents and demonstrates a three-phase decision-making framework for analysing the operational environment of strategies related to increased forest bioenergy targets. The framework is based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Stakeholders of four case countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and Slovenia) defined the factors that affect the operational environments, classified in four pre-set categories (Forest Characteristics and Management, Policy Framework, Technology and Science, and Consumers and Society). The stakeholders participated in weighting of SWOT items for two future scenarios with SMART technique. The first scenario reflected the current 2020 targets (the Business-as-Usual scenario), and the second scenario contained a further increase in the targets (the Increase scenario). This framework can be applied to various problems of environmental management and also to other fields where public decision-making is combined with stakeholders' engagement. The case results show that the greatest differences between the scenarios appear in Germany, indicating a notably negative outlook for the Increase scenario, while the smallest differences were found in Finland. Policy Framework was a highly rated category across the countries, mainly with respect to weaknesses and threats. Intensified forest bioenergy harvesting and utilization has potentially wide country-specific impacts which need to be anticipated and considered in national policies and public dialogue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Health Technology Assessment of companion diagnostics: experience of NICE.

PubMed

Byron, Sarah K; Crabb, Nick; George, Elisabeth; Marlow, Mirella; Newland, Adrian

2014-03-15

Companion diagnostics are used to aid clinical decision making to identify patients who are most likely to respond to treatment. They are becoming increasingly important as more new pharmaceuticals receive licensed indications that require the use of a companion diagnostic to identify the appropriate patient subgroup for treatment. These pharmaceuticals have proven benefit in the treatment of some cancers and other diseases, and also have potential to precisely tailor treatments to the individual in the future. However, the increasing use of companion diagnostics could place a substantial burden on health system resources to provide potentially high volumes of testing. This situation, in part, has led policy makers and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) bodies to review the policies and methods used to make reimbursement decisions for pharmaceuticals requiring companion diagnostics. The assessment of a pharmaceutical alongside the companion diagnostic used in the clinical trials may be relatively straightforward, although there are a number of challenges associated with assessing pharmaceuticals where a range of alternative companion diagnostics are available for use in routine clinical practice. The UK HTA body, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), has developed policy for considering companion diagnostics using its Technology Appraisal and Diagnostics Assessment Programs. Some HTA bodies in other countries have also adapted their policies and methods to accommodate the assessment of companion diagnostics. Here, we provide insight into the HTA of companion diagnostics for reimbursement decisions and how the associated challenges are being addressed, in particular by NICE. See all articles in this CCR Focus section, "The Precision Medicine Conundrum: Approaches to Companion Diagnostic Co-development." ©2014 AACR.

A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, A.; Richards, A.; Keith, K.; Frew, C.; Boseck, J.; Sutton, S.; Watts, C.; Rickman, D.

2007-01-01

This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

Demand-side management: Why ratemaking should`nt control tax policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haney, J.D.

1995-01-01

As utilities spend money on demand-side management (DSM) programs, they usually deduct their costs currently as ordinary and necessary business expenses. However, state regulators may force deferral of DSM costs for ratemaking purposes, with possible consequences on tax returns. When regulators defer DSM costs, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has offered several theories to challenge current tax deductions. One theory requires capitilization instead of a current deduction if regulators include the DSM cost in rate base and provide for a rate of return on the balance. The IRS explained this theory two years ago in a White Paper on conservationmore » expenses: The direct relationship between a rate of return allowed by the Regulator for conservation expenditures allowed in rate base and future profits establishes a prima facie case for capitalization under the future benefit standard. The authors believe that IRS policy should not be linked to ratemaking decisions.« less

Climate change, resource use and food security in midcentury under a range of plausible scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.

2016-12-01

Achieving and maintaining food security at local, national and global scales is challenged by changes in population, income and climate, among other socioeconomic and biophysical drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a systematic and multidisciplinary approach. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the 14 other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve tools and conduct ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments and policies under alternative global futures to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners. Alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios are explored using an integrated system of climate, water, crop and economic models. This presentation will share findings from recent projections of food production and prices to 2050 at global and regional scales, together with their potential implications for land and water use, food security, nutrition and health.

China's emergence and the prospects for global sustainability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grumbine, R.E.

2007-03-15

China's rapid development is influencing global patterns of resource use and their associated environmental and geopolitical impacts. Trend projections suggest that China's rise will have unprecedented impacts on the rest of the world. I examine three key drivers affecting China's emergence (scale of development, government policy decisions, and globalization), along with four factors that may constrain development (environmental degradation, political instability, coal and oil consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions). China's rise represents a tipping point between fossil fuel-based economies and still emergent sustainable alternatives. Policy precedents between the United States and China over the next decade may well determine themore » future course of global sustainability.« less

A Psychological Profile of Osama bin Laden.

PubMed

Ross, Colin A

2015-01-01

Understanding Osama bin Laden's personal history illuminates his motivation, inner conflicts, decisions and behaviors. His relationships with his mother, father, country and religion set the stage for his conflicted choices as an adolescent and then as an adult. Although only a cursory psychological profile is possible based on public domain information, the profile constructed here could be useful in setting future foreign policy. Perhaps the crucial mistake in U.S. foreign policy was abandoning bin Laden as an asset when Russian forces were expelled from Afghanistan in 1989: this act by the U.S. set the stage for the World Trade Center attacks on September 11, 2001.

The Space Shuttle Decision: NASA's Search for a Reusable Space Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heppenheimer, T. A.

1999-01-01

This significant new study of the decision to build the Space Shuttle explains the Shuttle's origins and early development. In addition to internal NASA discussions, this work details the debates in the late 1960s and early 1970s among policymakers in Congress, the Air Force, and the Office of Management and Budget over the roles and technical designs of the Shuttle. Examining the interplay of these organizations with sometimes conflicting goals, the author not only explains how the world's premier space launch vehicle came into being, but also how politics can interact with science, technology, national security, and economics in national government. The weighty policy decision to build the Shuttle represents the first component of the broader story: future NASA volumes will cover the Shuttle's development and operational histories.

How IRBs View and Make Decisions About Consent Forms

PubMed Central

Klitzman, Robert L.

2013-01-01

IRBs have been criticized for long and complicated consent forms, but how IRBs make decisions about these issues hasn’t been examined. I contacted leaders of 60 IRBs, and interviewed IRB leaders from 34 (response rate = 55%), and 13 members and administrators. IRBs confront challenges and dilemmas regarding these documents: what and how much these forms should include (e.g., how “perfect” forms should be). While IRBs generally seek to decrease the length and complexity, institutions and industry funders often want these forms to be legal documents. IRBs may also “nitpick” these documents without realizing the costs. This study, the first to explore how IRBs view and make decisions about consent forms, suggests underlying tensions, ambiguities, and subjectivities that have important implications for future policy, practice, education, and research. PMID:23485667

Unintended Relevance: The Role of the Stryker Brigade Combat Team in the Decisive Action Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

Systems , 30MM 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Walter C. Gray II...Facilities- Policy FCS Future Combat System FM Field Manual FMTV Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles GCV Ground Combat Vehicle GWOT...Vehicle MGS Mobile Gun System MPF Mobile Protected Firepower NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization ONS Operational Needs Statement RPG

Can hospitals prohibit euthanasia? An analysis from a European human rights perspective.

PubMed

Tack, Sylvie

2011-06-01

At present, in four European countries euthanasia and/ or physician assisted suicide (PAS) are tolerated under strict legal conditions. However, in practice these patient groups are often deprived of the possibility to undergo such decisions. Particularly Catholic health care institutions have developed policies which restrict the internal application of the law. Yet, the legitimacy of such policies is questionable. From a European human rights perspective it can be defended that the freedom of association allows hospitals to develop policies elaborating their ethical stances on euthanasia and PAS. However, to respect the patient's right to self-determination the concerned hospitals should at least inform current and future patients about the restrictive policy and deal carefully with euthanasia and PAS requests. If a patient's wish remains seriously incompatible with the ethical stances of the hospital, at least reasonable and attainable alternatives (such as a referral to a tolerant regional hospital) should be offered.

Anticipating issues related to increasing preimplantation genetic diagnosis use: a research agenda.

PubMed

Klitzman, Robert; Appelbaum, Paul S; Chung, Wendy; Sauer, Mark

2008-01-01

Increasing use of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) poses numerous clinical, social, psychological, ethical, legal and policy dilemmas, many of which have received little attention. Patients and providers are now considering and using PGD for a widening array of genetic disorders, and patients may increasingly seek 'designer babies.' In the USA, although governmental oversight policies have been discussed, few specific guidelines exist. Hence, increasingly, patients and providers will face challenging ethical and policy questions of when and for whom to use PGD, and how it should be financed. These issues should be better clarified and addressed through collection of data concerning the current use of PGD in the USA, including factors involved in decision making about PGD use, as well as the education of the various communities that are, and should be, involved in its implementation. Improved understanding of these issues will ultimately enhance the development and implementation of future clinical guidelines and policies.

Building research capacity for evidence-informed tobacco control in Canada: a case description

PubMed Central

McDonald, Paul W; Viehbeck, Sarah; Robinson, Sarah J; Leatherdale, Scott T; Nykiforuk, Candace IJ; Jolin, Mari Alice

2009-01-01

Tobacco use remains the leading cause of death and disability in Canada. Insufficient research capacity can inhibit evidence-informed decision making for tobacco control. This paper outlines a Canadian project to build research capacity, defined as a community's ability to produce research that adequately informs practice, policy, and future research in a timely, practical manner. A key component is that individuals and teams within the community must mutually engage around common, collectively negotiated goals to address specific practices, policies or programs of research. An organizing framework, a set of activities to build strategic recruitment, productivity tools, and procedures for enhancing social capital are described. Actions are intended to facilitate better alignment between research and the priorities of policy developers and service providers, enhance the external validity of the work performed, and reduce the time required to inform policy and practice. PMID:19664224

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Dams, Hydrology and Risk in Future River Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, D. L.

2017-12-01

Across America there are over 80,000 large to medium dams and globally the number is in excess of 800,000. Currently there are over 1,400 dams and diversion structures being planned or under construction globally. In addition to these documented dams there are thousands of small dams populating watersheds. Governments, agencies, native tribes, private owners and regulators all have a common interest in safe dams. Often dam safety is characterized as reducing structural risk while providing for maximum operational flexibility. In the 1970's there were a number of large and small dam failures in the United States. These failures prompted the federal government to issue voluntary dam safety guidelines. These guidelines were based on historic information incorporated into a risk assessment process to analyze, evaluate and manage risk with the goal to improve the quality of and support of dam management and safety decisions. We conclude that historic and new risks need to be integrated into dam management to insure adequate safety and operational flexibility. A recent assessment of the future role of dams in the United States premises that future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life have not been factored into the long-term operations or relicensing of dams. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure, multiple dams within watersheds and uncertainty in demands policy revisions and an updated strategic approach to dam safety. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water planning and management. Leaders in Congress and in the states need to implement a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. A research and national policy agenda is proposed to assess future impacts and the design, operation, and management of watersheds and dams.

A unifying vision for scientific decision making: the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics' Scientific Integrity Principles.

PubMed

Tappenden, Kelly A

2015-09-01

In 2014, recognizing the need to have a single document to guide scientific decision making at the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics (Academy), the Council on Research was charged with developing a scientific integrity policy for the organization. From the Council on Research, four members volunteered to lead this workgroup, which reviewed the literature and best practices for scientific integrity from well-respected organizations, including federal funders of research. It became clear that the scope of this document would be quite broad, given the many scientific activities the Academy is involved in, and that it would be unreasonable to set policy for each of these many situations. Therefore, the workgroup set about defining the scope of scientific activities to be covered and envisioned a set of guiding principles, to which policies from every organizational unit of the Academy could be compared to ensure they were in alignment. While many relevant policies exist already, such as the requirement of a signed conflict of interest disclosure for Food & Nutrition Conference & Expo speakers, the Evidence Analysis Library funding policy, and the Academy's sponsorship policy, the scientific integrity principals are unique in that they provide a unifying vision to which future policies can be compared and approved based on their alignment with the principles. The six principles outlined in this article were approved by the full Council on Research in January 2015 and approved by the Academy's Board of Directors in March 2015. This article covers the scope of the principles, presents the principles and existing related resources, and outlines next steps for the Academy to review and revise current policies and create new ones in alignment with these principles. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing policy dialogues and the role of context: Liberian case study before and during the Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Nabyonga-Orem, Juliet; Gebrikidane, Mesfin; Mwisongo, Aziza

2016-07-18

In the last decade participatory approaches have gained prominence in policy-making, becoming the focus of good policy-making processes. Policy dialogue is recognised as an important aspect of policy-making among several interactive and innovative policy-making models applied in different contexts and sectors. Recently there has been emphasis on the quality of policy dialogue in terms of how it should be conducted to attain participation and inclusiveness. However, there is paucity of evidence on how the context influences policy dialogue, particularly participation of stakeholders. Liberia's context, which is characterised as post-war, highly donor dependent and in recovery from the recent catastrophic Ebola outbreak, provides an opportunity to understand the influence of context on policy dialogue. This was an exploratory study using qualitative methods. Key informant interviews were conducted using an interview guide. A total of 16 interviews were conducted, 12 at the national level and 4 at the sub national level. Data were analysed using inductive thematic content analysis. The respondents felt that the dialogues were a success and involved important stakeholders; however, there were concerns about the improper methodology and facilitation used to conduct them. Opinions among the respondents about the process of generating and selecting the themes for the dialogues were extremely divergent. Both before and during the Ebola outbreak, the context was instrumental in shaping the dialogues according to the issue of focus, requirements for participation and the decisions to be made. Policy dialogues have become a platform for policy discussions and decisions in Liberia. It is a process that is well recognised and appreciated and is highly attributed to the success of the negotiations during the Ebola outbreak. To sustain and strengthen policy dialogues in future, there needs to be proper information sharing through diverse forums and avenues, stakeholders' empowerment and competent facilitation. These will ensure that the process is credible and legitimate.

National Space Transportation Policy: Issues for Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-05-01

This report, prepared for the House Committee on Science, is the first in a broad assessment of the health and future prospects of the U.S. space transportation technology and industrial base. The report focuses on the Clinton Administration's National Space Transportation Policy, which was released last fall. It examines administration policy in light of the implementation plans prepared by NASA, DOD, and the Transportation and Commerce Departments. The policy also emphasizes the important contribution private industry can make to the direction and development of U.S. space transportation capabilities. However, an analysis of the policy and implementation plans also raises some issues that might be of interest to Congress as it debates space transportation legislation, oversight, and funding. These issues involve decisions on NASA and DOD development programs, the use of foreign launch vehicles, and the new role of the private sector in space transportation research and development decisionmaking. This report also identifies two issues omitted from the Administration's policy: the preservation of long-range ballistic missile capabilities after final production in 2005, and the perspective of lower industrial tier firms toward national space transportation policy.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Nursing shaping and influencing health and social care policy.

PubMed

Fyffe, Theresa

2009-09-01

This paper seeks to consider how nursing as a profession in the United Kingdom is developing its role in shaping and influencing policy using lessons learnt from a policy study tour undertaken in the United States of America and extensive experience as a senior nurse within the government, the health service and more recently within a Professional Organization. The nursing profession faces major changes in health and health care and nurses need to be visible in the public debate about future models of health and health care. This paper critically reviews recent UK and USA literature and policy with relevance to nursing. Strategies that support nurses and nursing to influence policy are in place but more needs to be done to address all levels of nursing in order to find creative solutions that promote and increase the participation of nurses in the political process and health policy. There are lessons to be learnt in the UK from the US nursing experience. These need to be considered in the context of the UK and devolution. Although much has been achieved in positioning nurses and nursing as an influencer in the arena of policy and political decision-making, there is a need for greater co-ordination of action to ensure that nursing is actively supported in influencing and shaping health and health care policy. All leaders and other stakeholders require to play their part in considering how the actions set out in this article can be taken forward and how gaps such as education, fellowship experience and media engagement can be addressed in the future.

Improving the scientific foundation for mixtures joint toxicity and risk assessment: contributions from the SOT mixtures project--introduction.

PubMed

Mason, Ann M; Borgert, Christopher J; Bus, James S; Moiz Mumtaz, M; Simmons, Jane Ellen; Sipes, I Glenn

2007-09-01

Risk assessments are enhanced when policy and other decision-makers have access to experimental science designed to specifically inform key policy questions. Currently, our scientific understanding and science policy for environmental mixtures are based largely on extrapolating from and combining data in the observable range of single chemical toxicity to lower environmental concentrations and composition, i.e., using higher dose data to extrapolate and predict lower dose toxicity. There is a growing consensus that the default assumptions underlying those mixtures risk assessments that are conducted in the absence of actual mixtures data rest on an inadequate scientific database. Future scientific research should both build upon the current science and advance toxicology into largely uncharted territory. More precise approaches to better characterize toxicity of mixtures are needed. The Society of Toxicology (SOT) sponsored a series of panels, seminars, and workshops to help catalyze and improve the design and conduct of experimental toxicological research to better inform risk assessors and decision makers. This paper summarizes the activities of the SOT Mixtures Program and serves as the introductory paper to a series of articles in this issue, which hope to inspire innovative research and challenge the status quo.

Mindless Eating and Healthy Heuristics for the Irrational.

PubMed

Wansink, Brian; Just, David R; Payne, Collin R

2009-05-01

Food choice decisions are not the same as intake volume decisions. The former determine what we eat (soup or salad); the latter determine how much we eat (half of the bowl or all of it). Large amounts of money, time, and intelligence have been invested in understanding the physiological mechanisms that influence food choice (James O. Hill, forthcoming). Much less has been invested in understanding how and why our environment influences food consumption volume. Yet environmental factors (such as package size, plate shape, lighting, variety, or the presence of others) affect our food consumption volume far more than we realize (Wansink 2006). Whereas people can acknowledge that environmental factors influence others, they wrongly believe they are unaffected. Perhaps they are influenced at a basic level of which they are not aware. A better understanding of these drivers of consumption volume will have immediate implications for research, policy, and personal interventions. There are three objectives of this paper: (1) explain why environmental factors may unknowingly influence food consumption; (2) identify resulting myths that may lead to is specified models or misguided policy recommendations; and (3) offer clear direction for future research, policy, and personal dietary efforts.

Policies and practices of beach monitoring in the Great Lakes, USA: a critical review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

2010-01-01

Beaches throughout the Great Lakes are monitored for fecal indicator bacteria (typically Escherichia coli) in order to protect the public from potential sewage contamination. Currently, there is no universal standard for sample collection and analysis or results interpretation. Monitoring policies are developed by individual beach management jurisdictions, and applications are highly variable across and within lakes, states, and provinces. Extensive research has demonstrated that sampling decisions for time, depth, number of replicates, frequency of sampling, and laboratory analysis all influence the results outcome, as well as calculations of the mean and interpretation of the results in policy decisions. Additional shortcomings to current monitoring approaches include appropriateness and reliability of currently used indicator bacteria and the overall goal of these monitoring programs. Current research is attempting to circumvent these complex issues by developing new tools and methods for beach monitoring. In this review, we highlight the variety of sampling routines used across the Great Lakes and the extensive body of research that challenges comparisons among beaches. We also assess the future of Great Lakes monitoring and the advantages and disadvantages of establishing standards that are evenly applied across all beaches.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Climate Generation: Advancing Climate Action through Education, Public Engagement and Youth Leadership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppleton, K. L. I.

2017-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy empowers youth, educators, decision-makers and the public to foster climate literacy and action with the goal of building a more equitable and resilient future. We have over eleven years of experience delivering high-quality K-12 education, public engagement and youth leadership programming, reaching over 75,000 people, 35,000 students and 17,000 educators since 2006. By engaging educators, youth, and the public, we believe that communities can be better positioned to build a resilient and equitable future. For this reason we strive to engage with all these sectors through innovative programming and policy initiatives. Communities are resilient when individuals are connected to each other, resources, and decision-makers. Sharing personal narratives, and highlighting locally relevant solutions are all tools that Climate Generation employs to engage the public. We do this through community wide convenings, as well as sector specific events including at breweries, art fairs, and businesses. Education is also an integral piece for sustained action on climate change. We support educators with a science-based, interdisciplinary model of climate change education that engages all learners, and fosters climate literacy and action. We develop curriculum and offer professional development, encouraging teachers to develop today's students into action-competent citizens. Finally, Climate Generation recognizes the importance of empowering high school youth as a key strategy in transitioning to a just and sustainable future for all. We believe in the inherent genius of youth and know from experience that mentorship fosters powerful youth leadership at the community level, inspiring peers, family members, and local decision-makers to take critical action on climate change solutions. In order to accelerate and implement action on climate change we must take a multi-faceted approach: we are building public will for strong climate action at the local and state level; preparing educators and their students to understand the problem and implement clean energy solutions; and pushing our decision-makers to do the right thing via pressure from their constituents, including youth, who can effectively articulate equitable policy solutions and hold officials accountable.

Planetary protection, legal ambiguity and the decision making process for Mars sample return

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Race, M. S.

1996-01-01

As scientists and mission planners develop planetary protection requirements for future Mars sample return missions, they must recognize the socio-political context in which decisions about the mission will be made and pay careful attention to public concerns about potential back contamination of Earth. To the extent that planetary protection questions are unresolved or unaddressed at the time of an actual mission, they offer convenient footholds for public challenges in both legal and decision making realms, over which NASA will have little direct control. In this paper, two particular non-scientific areas of special concern are discussed in detail: 1) legal issues and 2) the decision making process. Understanding these areas is critical for addressing legitimate public concerns as well as for fulfilling procedural requirements regardless whether sample return evokes public controversy. Legal issues with the potential to complicate future missions include: procedural review under National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA); uncertainty about institutional control and authority; conflicting regulations and overlapping jurisdictions; questions about international treaty obligations and large scale impacts; uncertanities about the nature of the organism; and constitutional and regulatory concerns about quarantine, public health and safety. In light of these important legal issues, it is critical that NASA consider the role and timing of public involvement in the decision making process as a way of anticipating problem areas and preparing for legitimate public questions and challenges to sample return missions.

PAYER PERSPECTIVES ON FUTURE ACCEPTABILITY OF COMPARATIVE EFFECTIVENESS AND RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS RESEARCH.

PubMed

Moloney, Rachael; Mohr, Penny; Hawe, Emma; Shah, Koonal; Garau, Martina; Towse, Adrian

2015-01-01

Our objective was to gather perspectives from payers on how comparative effectiveness research (CER) in the United States and relative effectiveness (RE) research in Europe will impact evidentiary standards for access decisions of new drugs by 2020. We conducted semi-structured interviews with fourteen senior officials representing public and private payers, health technology assessment groups, and pricing and reimbursement bodies in the United States and Europe. An online survey assessed current use of CER/RE evidence and potential trends that might influence its use for decision making by 2020. A semi-structured interview elicited payers' definitions of CER/RE and was structured around four hypothetical cases resembling drugs expected to be more common or poised to create policy challenges by 2020. Topics included acceptance of study designs and analytic methods associated with CER/RE. A systematic content review was done to extract relevant information. According to key informants, randomization will remain an essential component for assessing comparative or relative effectiveness. They anticipate greater use of policy levers such as conditional reimbursement or prior authorization to manage diffusion of new drugs. Case studies provided important insights into situations when certain types of CER evidence may be acceptable (e.g., observational data when differences between drugs are largely convenience). Industry perceptions that CER/RE will change payers' evidentiary requirements in the future are consistent with our findings. Growing investment in payers' own data and increased reliance on policy tools to control diffusion of new drugs may also influence the type of evidence industry will be required to produce by 2020.

Defining Advance Care Planning for Adults: A Consensus Definition from a Multidisciplinary Delphi Panel

PubMed Central

Sudore, Rebecca L.; Lum, Hillary D.; You, John J.; Hanson, Laura C.; Meier, Diane E.; Pantilat, Steven Z.; Matlock, Daniel D.; Rietjens, Judith A. C.; Korfage, Ida J.; Ritchie, Christine S.; Kutner, Jean S.; Teno, Joan M.; Thomas, Judy; McMahan, Ryan D.; Heyland, Daren K.

2017-01-01

Background Despite increasing interest in advance care planning (ACP) and prior ACP descriptions, a consensus definition does not yet exist to guide clinical, research, and policy initiatives. Objective To develop a consensus definition of ACP for adults. Design Delphi Panel Setting/Participants Participants included a multidisciplinary panel of international ACP experts consisting of 52 clinicians, researchers, and policy leaders from 4 countries, and a patient/surrogate advisory committee. Measurements We conducted 10 rounds of a modified Delphi method and qualitatively analyzed panelists’ input. Panelists identified several themes lacking consensus, and iteratively discussed and developed a final consensus definition. Results Panelists identified several tensions concerning ACP concepts such as whether the definition should focus on conversations vs. written advance directives; patients’ values vs. treatment preferences; current shared decision making vs. future medical decisions; and who should be included in the process. The panel achieved a final consensus one-sentence definition and accompanying goals statement: “Advance care planning is a process that supports adults at any age or stage of health in understanding and sharing their personal values, life goals, and preferences regarding future medical care. The goal of advance care planning is to help ensure that people receive medical care that is consistent with their values, goals and preferences during serious and chronic illness.” The panel also described strategies to best support adults in ACP. Conclusions A multidisciplinary Delphi panel developed a consensus definition for ACP for adults that can be used to inform implementation and measurement of ACP clinical, research, and policy initiatives. PMID:28062339

Defining Advance Care Planning for Adults: A Consensus Definition From a Multidisciplinary Delphi Panel.

PubMed

Sudore, Rebecca L; Lum, Hillary D; You, John J; Hanson, Laura C; Meier, Diane E; Pantilat, Steven Z; Matlock, Daniel D; Rietjens, Judith A C; Korfage, Ida J; Ritchie, Christine S; Kutner, Jean S; Teno, Joan M; Thomas, Judy; McMahan, Ryan D; Heyland, Daren K

2017-05-01

Despite increasing interest in advance care planning (ACP) and previous ACP descriptions, a consensus definition does not yet exist to guide clinical, research, and policy initiatives. The aim of this study was to develop a consensus definition of ACP for adults. We convened a Delphi panel of multidisciplinary, international ACP experts consisting of 52 clinicians, researchers, and policy leaders from four countries and a patient/surrogate advisory committee. We conducted 10 rounds using a modified Delphi method and qualitatively analyzed panelists' input. Panelists identified several themes lacking consensus and iteratively discussed and developed a final consensus definition. Panelists identified several tensions concerning ACP concepts such as whether the definition should focus on conversations vs. written advance directives; patients' values vs. treatment preferences; current shared decision making vs. future medical decisions; and who should be included in the process. The panel achieved a final consensus one-sentence definition and accompanying goals statement: "Advance care planning is a process that supports adults at any age or stage of health in understanding and sharing their personal values, life goals, and preferences regarding future medical care. The goal of advance care planning is to help ensure that people receive medical care that is consistent with their values, goals and preferences during serious and chronic illness." The panel also described strategies to best support adults in ACP. A multidisciplinary Delphi panel developed a consensus definition for ACP for adults that can be used to inform implementation and measurement of ACP clinical, research, and policy initiatives. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An overview of future EU health systems. An insight into governance, primary care, data collection and citizens' participation.

PubMed

Quaglio, Gianluca; Figueras, Josep; Mantoan, Domenico; Dawood, Amr; Karapiperis, Theodoros; Costongs, Caroline; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique

2018-03-26

Health systems in the European Union (EU) are being questioned over their effectiveness and sustainability. In pursuing both goals, they have to conciliate coexisting, not always aligned, realities. This paper originated from a workshop entitled 'Health systems for the future' held at the European Parliament. Experts and decision makers were asked to discuss measures that may increase the effectiveness and sustainability of health systems, namely: (i) increasing citizens' participation; (ii) the importance of primary care in providing integrated services; (iii) improving the governance and (iv) fostering better data collection and information channels to support the decision making process. In the parliamentary debate, was discussed the concept that, in the near future, health systems' effectiveness and sustainability will very much depend on effective access to integrated services where primary care is pivotal, a clearer shift from care-oriented systems to health promotion and prevention, a profound commitment to good governance, particularly to stakeholders participation, and a systematic reuse of data meant to build health data-driven learning systems. Many health issues, such as future health systems in the EU, are potentially transformative and hence an intense political issue. It is policy-making leadership that will mostly determine how well EU health systems are prepared to face future challenges.

Data mining for health executive decision support: an imperative with a daunting future!

PubMed Central

Glover, Saundra; Rivers, Patrick A; Asoh, Derek A; Piper, Crystal N; Murph, Keva

2010-01-01

Summary Data mining is highly profiled. It has the potential to enhance executive information systems. Such enhancement would mean better decision-making by management, which in turn would mean better services for customers. While the future of data mining as technology should be exciting, some are worried about privacy concerns, which make the future of data mining daunting. This paper examines why data mining is highly profiled – the imperative toward data mining, data mining models and processes. Additionally, the paper examines some of the benefits and challenges of using data mining processes within the health-care arena. We cast the future of data mining by highlighting two of the many data mining tools available – one commercial and one freely available. Subsequently, we discuss a number of social and technical factors that may thwart the extensive deployment of data mining, especially when the intent is to know more about the people that organizations have to serve and cast a view of what the future holds for data mining. This component is especially important when attempting to determine the longevity of data mining within health-care organizations. It is hoped that our discussions would be useful to organizations as they engage data mining, strategies for executive information systems and information policy issues. PMID:20150610

Space life sciences strategic plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.

1992-05-01

Over the last three decades the Life Sciences Program has significantly contributed to NASA's manned and unmanned exploration of space, while acquiring new knowledge in the fields of space biology and medicine. The national and international events which have led to the development and revision of NASA strategy will significantly affect the future of life sciences programs both in scope and pace. This document serves as the basis for synthesizing the options to be pursued during the next decade, based on the decisions, evolution, and guiding principles of the National Space Policy. The strategies detailed in this document are fully supportive of the Life Sciences Advisory Subcommittee's 'A Rationale for the Life Sciences,' and the recent Aerospace Medicine Advisory Committee report entitled 'Strategic Considerations for Support of Humans in Space and Moon/Mars Exploration Missions.' Information contained within this document is intended for internal NASA planning and is subject to policy decisions and direction, and to budgets allocated to NASA's Life Sciences Program.

Space life sciences strategic plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.

1992-01-01

Over the last three decades the Life Sciences Program has significantly contributed to NASA's manned and unmanned exploration of space, while acquiring new knowledge in the fields of space biology and medicine. The national and international events which have led to the development and revision of NASA strategy will significantly affect the future of life sciences programs both in scope and pace. This document serves as the basis for synthesizing the options to be pursued during the next decade, based on the decisions, evolution, and guiding principles of the National Space Policy. The strategies detailed in this document are fully supportive of the Life Sciences Advisory Subcommittee's 'A Rationale for the Life Sciences,' and the recent Aerospace Medicine Advisory Committee report entitled 'Strategic Considerations for Support of Humans in Space and Moon/Mars Exploration Missions.' Information contained within this document is intended for internal NASA planning and is subject to policy decisions and direction, and to budgets allocated to NASA's Life Sciences Program.

Lessons Learned From A Study Of Genomics-Based Carrier Screening For Reproductive Decision Making.

PubMed

Wilfond, Benjamin S; Kauffman, Tia L; Jarvik, Gail P; Reiss, Jacob A; Richards, C Sue; McMullen, Carmit; Gilmore, Marian; Himes, Patricia; Kraft, Stephanie A; Porter, Kathryn M; Schneider, Jennifer L; Punj, Sumit; Leo, Michael C; Dickerson, John F; Lynch, Frances L; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rope, Alan F; Lutz, Kevin; Goddard, Katrina A B

2018-05-01

Genomics-based carrier screening is one of many opportunities to use genomic information to inform medical decision making, but clinicians, health care delivery systems, and payers need to determine whether to offer screening and how to do so in an efficient, ethical way. To shed light on this issue, we conducted a study in the period 2014-17 to inform the design of clinical screening programs and guide further health services research. Many of our results have been published elsewhere; this article summarizes the lessons we learned from that study and offers policy insights. Our experience can inform understanding of the potential impact of expanded carrier screening services on health system workflows and workforces-impacts that depend on the details of the screening approach. We found limited patient or health system harms from expanded screening. We also found that some patients valued the information they learned from the process. Future policy discussions should consider the value of offering such expanded carrier screening in health delivery systems with limited resources.

Implementing participatory decision making in forest planning.

PubMed

Ananda, Jayanath

2007-04-01

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein's public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.

Collaborative-Large scale Engineering Assessment Networks for Environmental Research: The Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moo-Young, H.

2004-05-01

A networked infrastructure for engineering solutions and policy alternatives is necessary to assess, manage, and protect complex, anthropogenic ally stressed environmental resources effectively. Reductionist and discrete disciplinary methodologies are no longer adequate to evaluate and model complex environmental systems and anthropogenic stresses. While the reductonist approach provides important information regarding individual mechanisms, it cannot provide complete information about how multiple processes are related. Therefore, it is not possible to make accurate predictions about system responses to engineering interventions and the effectiveness of policy options. For example, experts cannot agree on best management strategies for contaminated sediments in riverine and estuarine systems. This is due, in part to the fact that existing models do not accurately capture integrated system dynamics. In addition, infrastructure is not available for investigators to exchange and archive data, to collaborate on new investigative methods, and to synthesize these results to develop engineering solutions and policy alternatives. Our vision for the future is to create a network comprising field facilities and a collaboration of engineers, scientists, policy makers, and community groups. This will allow integration across disciplines, across different temporal and spatial scales, surface and subsurface geographies, and air sheds and watersheds. Benefits include fast response to changes in system health, real-time decision making, and continuous data collection that can be used to anticipate future problems, and to develop sound engineering solutions and management decisions. CLEANER encompasses four general aspects: 1) A Network of environmental field facilities instrumented for the acquisition and analysis of environmental data; 2) A Virtual Repository of Data and information technology for engineering modeling, analysis and visualization of data, i.e. an environmental cyber-infrastructure; 3) A Mechanism for multidisciplinary research and education activities designed to exploit the output of the instrumented sites and networked information technology, to formulate engineering and policy options directed toward the protection, remediation, and restoration of stressed environments and sustainability of environmental resources; and 4) A Collaboration among engineers, natural and social scientists, educators, policy makers, industry, non-governmental organizations, the public, and other stakeholders.

32 CFR 282.4 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... certain claim settlement and advance decision functions that, by statute or delegation, are vested in the... SETTLING PERSONNEL AND GENERAL CLAIMS AND PROCESSING ADVANCE DECISION REQUESTS § 282.4 Policy. It is DoD policy that: (a) Claims shall be settled and advance decisions rendered in accordance with all pertinent...

Pain Assessment and Treatment Disparities: A Virtual Human Technology Investigation

PubMed Central

Hirsh, Adam T.; George, Steven Z.; Robinson, Michael E.

2009-01-01

Pain assessment and treatment is influenced by patient demographic characteristics and nonverbal expressions. Methodological challenges have limited the empirical investigation of these issues. The current analogue study employed an innovative research design and novel virtual human (VH) technology to investigate disparities in pain-related clinical decision making. Fifty-four nurses viewed vignettes consisting of a video clip of the VH patient and clinical summary information describing a post-surgical context. Participants made assessment (pain intensity and unpleasantness) and treatment (non-opioid and opioid medications) decisions on computerized visual analogue scales. VH demographic cues of sex, race, and age, as well as facial expression of pain, were systematically manipulated and hypothesized to influence decision ratings. Idiographic and nomothetic statistical analyses were conducted to test these hypotheses. Idiographic results indicated that sex, race, age, and pain expression cues accounted for significant, unique variance in decision policies among many nurses. Pain expression was the most salient cue in this context. Nomothetic results indicated differences within VH cues of interest; the size and consistency of these differences varied across policy domains. This study demonstrates the application of VH technology and lens model methodology to the study of disparities in pain-related decision making. Assessment and treatment of acute post-surgical pain often varies based on VH demographic and facial expression cues. These data contribute to the existing literature on disparities in pain practice and highlight the potential of a novel approach that may serve as a model for future investigation of these critical issues. PMID:19269742

Pain assessment and treatment disparities: a virtual human technology investigation.

PubMed

Hirsh, Adam T; George, Steven Z; Robinson, Michael E

2009-05-01

Pain assessment and treatment is influenced by patient demographic characteristics and nonverbal expressions. Methodological challenges have limited the empirical investigation of these issues. The current analogue study employed an innovative research design and novel virtual human (VH) technology to investigate disparities in pain-related clinical decision-making. Fifty-four nurses viewed vignettes consisting of a video clip of the VH patient and clinical summary information describing a post-surgical context. Participants made assessment (pain intensity and unpleasantness) and treatment (non-opioid and opioid medications) decisions on computerized visual analogue scales. VH demographic cues of sex, race, and age, as well as facial expression of pain, were systematically manipulated and hypothesized to influence decision ratings. Idiographic and nomothetic statistical analyses were conducted to test these hypotheses. Idiographic results indicated that sex, race, age, and pain expression cues accounted for significant, unique variance in decision policies among many nurses. Pain expression was the most salient cue in this context. Nomothetic results indicated differences within VH cues of interest; the size and consistency of these differences varied across policy domains. This study demonstrates the application of VH technology and lens model methodology to the study of disparities in pain-related decision-making. Assessment and treatment of acute post-surgical pain often varies based on VH demographic and facial expression cues. These data contribute to the existing literature on disparities in pain practice and highlight the potential of a novel approach that may serve as a model for future investigation of these critical issues.

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making.

The next 25 years: Industrialization of space - Rationale for planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Puttkamer, J.

1977-01-01

A methodology for planning the industralization of space is discussed. The suggested approach combines the extrapolative ('push') approach, in which alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies, with the normative ('pull') view, in which an ideal state in the far future is postulated and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment. Time-reversed vectors of the future are tied to extrapolated, trend-oriented vectors of the quasi-present to identify common plateaus or stepping stones in technological development. Important steps in the industrialization of space to attain the short-range goals of production of space-derived energy, goods and services and the long-range goal of space colonization are discussed.

Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Wen

2018-03-01

This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

Nuclear Weapons: Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-04

indicated plans to reduce the time between a decision to conduct a nuclear test and the test itself, which has been done. Critics raised concerns...testing in the future, but there are no plans to do so.’”6 Critics expressed concern about the implications of these policies for testing and new... critic felt that increased funding for test readiness would in effect give prior approval for testing. CRS-4 8 The National Academies, “Academy

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wellman, Tristan P.; Rupert, Michael G.

2016-03-03

The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Battle of Britain Toolbook

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-05-01

determine how lessons therefrom have future application. The British author, Group Captain A.G.B. Vallance , addresses British national defense policy in...of Air Force History, 1983. Estes, Richard H. "Guilio Douhet: More on Target Than He Knew," Airpower Journal. IV-4:68-78 (Winter 1990). Foxley-Norris...Co., Inc., 1971. Janes William H. "Dunkirk: A German Decision" Armour. LXXXIII-3:19-22 (May-June 1974). Kaplan, Philip and Richard Collier. Their

Eritrean Options and Ethiopia’s Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-01

great modernizing emperors, Menelik II and Haile Selassie I, were centralizers who dealt with different regions and groups with attention to local...movements and to ii ’ -nsify their competition for influence in them. Haile Selassie’s alleged oppressive policies in Eritrea quickly became the...Socialism." All of Ethiopia’s misfortunes during the ensuing 15 years stemmed directly from these two fateful decisions. -5- II . ENDLESS WAR The Derg’s

Treatment limitation decisions under uncertainty: the value of subsequent euthanasia.

PubMed

Savulescu, Julian

1994-01-01

This paper examines how decisions to limit treatment to critically ill patients under uncertainty can be made rationally. Expected utility theory offers one way of making rational decisions under uncertainty. One problem with using this approach is that we may not know the value of each option. One rational course open is to treat until further information becomes available. However, treatment can limit the range of options open. With treatment, a patient may recover such that he no longer requires life-supporting treatment. However, his life may be not worth living. If active euthanasia of 'non-terminal' conditions is prohibited, the option of dying will no longer be available. Taking a rational 'wait and see' course may result in being trapped within an unbearable life. On the other hand, sometimes present practice 'lets nature take its course'. Critically ill patients are allowed to die because it is believed that their lives will be not worth living. It is likely that some patients are allowed to die when there is some objective chance of worthwhile future life. This paper argues that a policy of treating critically ill patients until the nature of future options can be better evaluated, in company with an offer of subsequent euthanasia where appropriate, allows a more rational and humane approach to treatment limitation decisions under uncertainty.

Competition policy in patent cases and antitrust.

PubMed

Sobel, Gerald

2003-01-01

The article that follows examines the competition policy reflected in the decisions of the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in its patent cases. The court's views on this subject have been manifested most plainly in decisions that have transformed the law concerning infringement under the doctrine of equivalents and claim construction. In both categories, the court narrowed patent scope by reason of its desire to protect competitors. The article argues that the court's premise in prescribing narrower claim scope reflected an incomplete view of competition policy. The court's analysis overlooked the benefits to competition provided by patents, which stimulate inventions and their development. The article traces the development of antitrust jurisprudence and demonstrates how respect for the contribution of patents to competition and skepticism of free-riding has evolved, particularly beginning in the 1970s. The article draws a parallel between the Court's reasoning about competition policy, on the one hand, and the rejected views of Justices Hugo Black and William O. Douglas and abandoned patent-antitrust jurisprudence, on the other. The Federal Circuit's decision in Festo Corp. v. Shoketsu Kinzoku Kogyo Kabushiki Co., Ltd., 234 F.3d 558 (Fed. Cir. 2000), on the subject of equivalents is considered in the paper. In that decision, the majority adopted a new rule that completely barred infringement under the doctrine of equivalents of any claim limitation where, in prosecution, there had been a narrowing amendment relating to patentability. In the past, prosecution estoppel foreclosing equivalents had been subject to a "flexible bar," which, in some circumstances, allowed for equivalence notwithstanding such an amendment. The article points out that because almost all patents are amended during prosecution, the effect would be to allow widespread copying of patented inventions by trivial modifications of any narrowed claim limitation. The incentive to innovate in the future would be correspondingly diminished and the expectations of past patentees would be correspondingly altered.

How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

2017-12-01

Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions. However, visualization of the vulnerability domain is still challenging if multiple drivers are present. New emerging tools are focused on generating synthetic scenarios, addressing multiple objectives, linking decision-making frameworks to adaptation pathways and communicating risks to the stakeholders.

Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

Colorectal cancer patients' attitudes towards involvement in decision making.

PubMed

Beaver, Kinta; Campbell, Malcolm; Craven, Olive; Jones, David; Luker, Karen A; Susnerwala, Shabbir S

2009-03-01

To design and administer an attitude rating scale, exploring colorectal cancer patients' views of involvement in decision making. To examine the impact of socio-demographic and/or treatment-related factors on decision making. To conduct principal components analysis to determine if the scale could be simplified into a number of factors for future clinical utility. An attitude rating scale was constructed based on previous qualitative work and administered to colorectal cancer patients using a cross-sectional survey approach. 375 questionnaires were returned (81.7% response). For patients it was important to be informed and involved in the decision-making process. Information was not always used to make decisions as patients placed their trust in medical expertise. Women had more positive opinions on decision making and were more likely to want to make decisions. Written information was understood to a greater degree than verbal information. The scale could be simplified to a number of factors, indicating clinical utility. Few studies have explored the attitudes of colorectal cancer patients towards involvement in decision making. This study presents new insights into how patients view the concept of participation; important when considering current policy imperatives in the UK of involving service users in all aspects of care and treatment.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

Political Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Mitigation: A View from the Front Lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, A. J.

2014-12-01

Subsequent to the release of the 2007 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Province of British Columbia in Canada became an international leader in the development and implementation of innovative climate change mitigation policies. These include, but are not limited to, the 2008 Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act, the 2008 Carbon Tax Act and the 2010 Clean Energy Act. British Columbia's Cleantech sector quickly responded to, and thrived as a result of, the signal sent by government to the market. But with a change in Premier in 2011 came a change in priorities. A number of the previous initiatives have either been weakened or no longer followed through with as the Province sets its vision of being a major exporter of Liquified Natural Gas. As a member of the British Columbia Climate Action Team set up by Premier Gordon Campbell in 2007 to provide advice to government on a variety of policy-related matters, I was fortunate to be able to watch first hand as the Province aggressively moved towards reducing its Greenhouse gas emissions. Rather than stand on the sidelines as the government lost its direction on the climate file I chose to run with the BC Green Party in the 2013 provincial election. I was subsequently elected as a Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the constituents of Oak Bay Gordon Head. While science can and should inform policy deliberations, in and of itself, science cannot and should not prescribe policy outcomes. Whether or not we deal with today's challenge of climate change boils down to a question of intergeneration equity. Does the present generation owe anything to future generations in terms of the quality of the environment that they inherit? Many of today's elected decision-makers are focused on short-term decision-making. Yet those who will be affected by the consequences of these decisions are not part of the decision making process — hence the political conundrum. In this presentation I detail some of the political opportunities and challenges associated with efforts to ensure political decision-makers consider the long term consequences of their climate and energy policy while balancing a myriad other immediately-pressing issues.

Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Claggett, Peter

2013-01-01

The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

Scanning the horizon in a decentralized healthcare system: the Canadian experience.

PubMed

Morrison, Andra

2012-07-01

Canada has a highly decentralized health care system with 13 provinces and territories delivering health care within their own respective jurisdictions. Decisions regarding which innovative health technologies to adopt are often driven by the unique health care priorities of each jurisdiction's population. To understand these needs, the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health's (CADTH's) Early Awareness Service has expanded its activities. In addition to proactively scanning the horizon for new and emerging health technologies, the Early Awareness Service also scans the horizon for national and jurisdictional health policy issues. This paper looks at CADTH's process for identifying and monitoring policy issues at a national and jurisdictional level. CADTH's Early Awareness Service delivers timely information on emerging health care concerns and technologies that may affect health care finances, facilities, operations, and patient care. The identification of important policy issues can help determine which new and emerging technologies will have the most significant impact on the health care system. The information that CADTH scans can also be used to help decision-makers prepare for potential developments and events that may have an impact on health care systems. By improving its capability to identify and share policy issues across and within jurisdictions, CADTH is better situated to provide information that can be used by policy-makers to help them plan and anticipate for the introduction of new technologies and future developments affecting the unique health care needs of their jurisdictions.

Local decision makers’ awareness of the social determinants of health in Turkey: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Social determinants have been described as having a greater influence than other determinants of health status. The major social determinants of health and the necessary policy objectives have been defined; it is now necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of these policies. Previous studies have shown that descriptions of the awareness level of citizens and local decision makers, practice-based research and evidence, and intersectoral studies are the best options for investigating the social determinants of health at the community level. The objective of the present study was to define local decision makers’ awareness of the social determinants of health in the Aydin province of Turkey. Methods A total of 53 mayors serve the Aydin city center, districts and towns. Aydin city center has 22 neighborhoods and 22 headmen responsible for them. The present study targeted all mayors and headmen in Aydin - a total of 75 possible participants. A questionnaire was used to collect the data. The questionnaire was faxed to the mayors and administered face-to-face with the headmen. Results Headmen identified the three most important determinants of public health as environmental issues, addictions (smoking, alcohol) and malnutrition. According to the mayors, the major determinant of public health is stress, followed by malnutrition, environmental issues, an inactive lifestyle, and the social and economic conditions of the country. Both groups expressed that the Turkish Ministry of Health, municipalities and universities are the institutions responsible for developing health policy. Headmen were found to be unaware and mayors were aware of the social determinants of health as classified by the World Health Organisation. Both groups were classified as unaware with regard to their awareness of the Marmot Review policy objectives. Conclusions Studies such as the present study provide important additional information on the social determinants of health, and help to increase the awareness levels of both local decision-makers and the community. Such studies must be considered a vital first step in future public health research on health determinants and their impact on national and international policies. PMID:22703525

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

Coupled Ethical-Epistemic Analysis of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M.

2015-12-01

Are there inherent limitations to what we can know about how the climate will change in the years ahead? How can we use what is known about the future climate in a way that promotes ethical decision-making? These questions call for urgent attention because important policy decisions need to be made in order to prepare for climate change in North America and around the world. While the science of climate change is central to this line of inquiry, the fields of epistemology, moral, political and environmental philosophy may provide insights on how these issues should be addressed. Detailing the relationship between evidential and ethical dimensions of climate change, this research aims to improve our understanding of the interconnections among several lines of inquiry and to develop solutions to problems of decision-making under conditions of scientific uncertainty.

Shared decision making in Australia in 2017.

PubMed

Trevena, Lyndal; Shepherd, Heather L; Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; Cust, Anne E; Leask, Julie; Shadbolt, Narelle; Del Mar, Chris; McCaffery, Kirsten; Hoffmann, Tammy

2017-06-01

Shared decision making (SDM) is now firmly established within national clinical standards for accrediting hospitals, day procedure services, public dental services and medical education in Australia, with plans to align general practice, aged care and disability service. Implementation of these standards and training of health professionals is a key challenge for the Australian health sector at this time. Consumer involvement in health research, policy and clinical service governance has also increased, with a major focus on encouraging patients to ask questions during their clinical care. Tools to support shared decision making are increasingly used but there is a need for more systemic approaches to their development, cultural adaptation and implementation. Sustainable solutions to ensure tools are kept up-to-date with the best available evidence will be important for the future. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

The age 60 rule.

PubMed

2004-08-01

The impetus for amending the Age 60 Rule compels the review of recent scientific literature pertinent to pilot age and performance. The Rule has been the subject of extensive debate among policymakers and the aviation community. The aviation medical community is in a position to continue research and discussion that may provide additional evidence for the development of future policy decisions. Those addressing the future of the Age 60 Rule may benefit from understanding the nature and limitations of these studies, whether their outcomes are conclusive or not. Hopefully, some measure of guidance may be achieved as they address pilot age limits and related safety, economic, and operational issues of the aviation industry.

Energy decisions reframed as justice and ethical concerns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Heffron, Raphael J.; McCauley, Darren; Goldthau, Andreas

2016-05-01

All too often, energy policy and technology discussions are limited to the domains of engineering and economics. Many energy consumers, and even analysts and policymakers, confront and frame energy and climate risks in a moral vacuum, rarely incorporating broader social justice concerns. Here, to remedy this gap, we investigate how concepts from justice and ethics can inform energy decision-making by reframing five energy problems — nuclear waste, involuntary resettlement, energy pollution, energy poverty and climate change — as pressing justice concerns. We conclude by proposing an energy justice framework centred on availability, affordability, due process, transparency and accountability, sustainability, equity and responsibility, which highlights the futurity, fairness and equity dimensions of energy production and use.

Cost-Utility Analysis: Current Methodological Issues and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark J. C.; Dubois, Dominique J.

2011-01-01

The use of cost–effectiveness as final criterion in the reimbursement process for listing of new pharmaceuticals can be questioned from a scientific and policy point of view. There is a lack of consensus on main methodological issues and consequently we may question the appropriateness of the use of cost–effectiveness data in health care decision-making. Another concern is the appropriateness of the selection and use of an incremental cost–effectiveness threshold (Cost/QALY). In this review, we focus mainly on only some key methodological concerns relating to discounting, the utility concept, cost assessment, and modeling methodologies. Finally we will consider the relevance of some other important decision criteria, like social values and equity. PMID:21713127

Rationales behind irrationality of decision making in groundwater quality management.

PubMed

Ronen, Daniel; Sorek, Shaul; Gilron, Jack

2012-01-01

This issue paper presents how certain policies regarding management of groundwater quality lead to unexpected and undesirable results, despite being backed by seemingly reasonable assumptions. This happened in part because the so-called reasonable decisions were not based on an integrative and quantitative methodology. The policies surveyed here are: (1) implementation of a program for aquifer restoration to pristine conditions followed, after failure, by leaving it to natural attenuation; (2) the "Forget About The Aquifer" (FATA) approach, while ignoring possible damage that contaminated groundwater can inflict on the other environmental systems; (3) groundwater recharge in municipal areas while neglecting the presence of contaminants in the unsaturated zone and conditions exerted by upper impervious surfaces; (4) the Soil Aquifer Treatment (SAT) practice considering aquifers to be "filters of infinite capacity"; and (5) focusing on well contamination vs. aquifer contamination to conveniently defer grappling with the problem of the aquifer as a whole. Possible reasons for the failure of these seemingly rational policies are: (1) the characteristic times of processes associated with groundwater that are usually orders of magnitude greater than the residence times of decision makers in their managerial position; (2) proliferation of improperly trained "groundwater experts" or policymakers with sectoral agendas alongside legitimate differences of opinion among groundwater scientists; (3) the neglect of the cyclic nature of natural phenomena; and (4) ignoring future long-term costs because of immediate costs. © 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

Water Management Decisions within a Changing Hydrologic Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, D. L.

2013-12-01

Across the United States and around the world we are facing unprecedented demands on our surface and ground water. Increasing population demands coupled with maintaining water quality, supporting species and ecosystem services, distribution of supply, hydrologic variability associated with changing climatic conditions - all require us to look more rigorously at the intersection of policy, management and science. The water supply and hydroelectric constituencies has embraced the concept of Adaptive Management in balancing the needs of resources, people, economies and providing ecosystem support. In its infancy Adaptive Management was employed as a way to move forward on dam operation and reservoir management decisions while recognizing the unknowns of how up or downstream physical and biological elements of freshwater systems would respond. River science at the time was not mature or expansive enough to address the interrelated and complex impacts of the nuances of changing operations of dams. Adaptive Management, the concept, made good sense and has provided a framework to inform management and policy decisions while keeping the door open for integrating new knowledge into a management matrix - the essence of adaptation. The application of Adaptive Management principles has continued to expand as water management demands increase. The application and reality of the use of Adaptive Management has had variable success. In the United States we have over 25 federal agencies that have water in their mission statements. Combine this with 50 states with their own water management requirements, Native American Tribes, and countless watershed and local water supply constraints and you get a sense of the challenge associated with collaborating and addressing water management issues. Without having a set of national water objectives and goals (a National Water Policy) it is up to the collaboration and integration of the multiple water silos with appropriate science. It is within this context that river restoration and management case studies will be explored to evaluate opportunities, challenges, the process of integrating science-policy-management, and some perspectives on the possible options for building a water future. A water future that embraces the essence of Adaptive Management without using the concept as a convenient mechanism for avoiding having to make difficult decisions on water management. The review will include assessing the application of various tools including hydrologic and ecosystem models, experimental floods, channel-cleansing flows, manipulation of habitats, and seasonal allocation of water to provide flooding of estuary habitats and river mouths for water volume and water quality purposes.

Groundwater Governance in a Water-Starved Country: Public Policy, Farmers' Perceptions, and Drivers of Tubewell Adoption in Balochistan, Pakistan.

PubMed

Khair, Syed Mohammad; Mushtaq, Shahbaz; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2015-01-01

Pakistan faces the challenge of developing sustainable groundwater policies with the main focus on groundwater management rather than groundwater development and with appropriate governance arrangement to ensure benefits continue into the future. This article investigates groundwater policy, farmers' perceptions, and drivers of tubewell (groundwater bore) adoption and proposes possible pathways for improved groundwater management for Balochistan, Pakistan. Historical groundwater policies were mainly aimed at increasing agricultural production and reducing poverty, without consideration of adverse impact on groundwater availability. These groundwater policies and governance arrangements have resulted in a massive decline in groundwater tables. Tubewell owners' rankings of the drivers of groundwater decline suggest that rapid and widespread installation of tubewells, together with uncontrolled extraction due to lack of property rights, electricity subsidy policies, and ineffective governance, are key causes of groundwater decline in Balochistan. An empirical "tubewell adoption" model confirmed that the electricity subsidy significantly influenced tubewell adoption decisions. The article proposes a more rational electricity subsidy policy for sustaining groundwater levels in the short-run. However, in the long run a more comprehensive sustainable groundwater management policy, with strong institutional support and involvement of all stakeholders, is needed. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Dying well with reduced agency: a scoping review and thematic synthesis of the decision-making process in dementia, traumatic brain injury and frailty.

PubMed

Birchley, Giles; Jones, Kerry; Huxtable, Richard; Dixon, Jeremy; Kitzinger, Jenny; Clare, Linda

2016-07-27

In most Anglophone nations, policy and law increasingly foster an autonomy-based model, raising issues for large numbers of people who fail to fit the paradigm, and indicating problems in translating practical and theoretical understandings of 'good death' to policy. Three exemplar populations are frail older people, people with dementia and people with severe traumatic brain injury. We hypothesise that these groups face some over-lapping challenges in securing good end-of-life care linked to their limited agency. To better understand these challenges, we conducted a scoping review and thematic synthesis. To capture a range of literature, we followed established scoping review methods. We then used thematic synthesis to describe the broad themes emerging from this literature. Initial searches generated 22,375 references, and screening yielded 49, highly heterogeneous, studies that met inclusion criteria, encompassing 12 countries and a variety of settings. The thematic synthesis identified three themes: the first concerned the processes of end-of-life decision-making, highlighting the ambiguity of the dominant shared decision-making process, wherein decisions are determined by families or doctors, sometimes explicitly marginalising the antecedent decisions of patients. Despite this marginalisation, however, the patient does play a role both as a social presence and as an active agent, by whose actions the decisions of those with authority are influenced. The second theme examined the tension between predominant notions of a good death as 'natural' and the drive to medicalise death through the lens of the experiences and actions of those faced with the actuality of death. The final theme considered the concept of antecedent end-of-life decision-making (in all its forms), its influence on policy and decision-making, and some caveats that arise from the studies. Together these three themes indicate a number of directions for future research, which are likely to be applicable to other conditions that result in reduced agency. Above all, this review emphasises the need for new concepts and fresh approaches to end of life decision-making that address the needs of the growing population of frail older people, people with dementia and those with severe traumatic brain injury.

Decision makers, scientists and the public as stakeholders: the connection between traffic intervention policy and air quality in a local context.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiand, L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmitz, S.; Niehoff, N.

2017-12-01

Urban mobility is a key issue to make cities more inclusive, safer, and more environmentally friendly. To ensure a sustainable future, local policy should, among other actions, aim to improve access to sustainable transport systems and enhance mobility opportunities, while at the same time addressing critical environmental and health targets. In order to assess whether these objectives are met, measures should be informed and evaluated from a social and environmental perspective. Citizens' opinions and the acceptance of environmental policies are crucial to successful implementation of urban mobility measures. The complexity of urban air quality issues require transparent decision-making processes that are grounded in evidence-based research and embrace local knowledge. From this basis, our research group and the city council collaborated to assess a new policy action intended to address environmental and health targets. This talk will present the results from the assessment of this new policy, that was implemented in large part to alleviate air quality exceedances, from the perspective of public acceptability of the measure and the approach taken by the city council to implement the measure. Parallel to assessing the effect of this policy on the recorded levels of air pollution and traffic counts, we conducted a social survey to examine public opinions of this measure, as well as the link between air quality awareness and mobility decisions. 4661 responses were collected over a one month period. Survey participants were those most affected by the traffic measure, including commuters and local residents. The results show that there is an overall low acceptance rate of the measure (8%) as well as low concern for air quality (2,90 - where 1 = not concerned and 6 = very concerned). We also found that there is a negative relationship between air quality rating and air quality concern. A similar approach was taken to understand climate change concern, which will be discussed further in the talk as well as how concern for air quality can increase acceptability for climate change mitigation policies.

A simple formulation and solution to the replacement problem: a practical tool to assess the economic cow value, the value of a new pregnancy, and the cost of a pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Cabrera, V E

2012-08-01

This study contributes to the research literature by providing a new formulation for the cow replacement problem, and it also contributes to the Extension deliverables by providing a user-friendly decision support system tool that would more likely be adopted and applied for practical decision making. The cow value, its related values of a new pregnancy and a pregnancy loss, and their associated replacement policies determine profitability in dairy farming. One objective of this study was to present a simple, interactive, dynamic, and robust formulation of the cow value and the replacement problem, including expectancy of the future production of the cow and the genetic gain of the replacement. The proven hypothesis of this study was that all the above requirements could be achieved by using a Markov chain algorithm. The Markov chain model allowed (1) calculation of a forward expected value of a studied cow and its replacement; (2) use of a single model (the Markov chain) to calculate both the replacement policies and the herd statistics; (3) use of a predefined, preestablished farm reproductive replacement policy; (4) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of the expected future performance of a cow; (5) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of genetic gain with a replacement; and (6) use of a simple spreadsheet or an online system to implement the decision support system. Results clearly demonstrated that the decision policies found with the Markov chain model were consistent with more complex dynamic programming models. The final user-friendly decision support tool is available at http://dairymgt.info/ → Tools → The Economic Value of a Dairy Cow. This tool calculates the cow value instantaneously and is highly interactive, dynamic, and robust. When a Wisconsin dairy farm was studied using the model, the solution policy called for replacing nonpregnant cows 11 mo after calving or months in milk (MIM) if in the first lactation and 9 MIM if in later lactations. The cow value for an average second-lactation cow was as follows: (1) when nonpregnant, (a) $897 in MIM = 1 and (b) $68 in MIM = 8; (2) when the cow just became pregnant,(a) $889 for a pregnancy in MIM = 3 and (b) $298 for a pregnancy in MIM = 8; and (3) the value of a pregnancy loss when a cow became pregnant in MIM = 5 was (a) $221 when the loss was in the first month of pregnancy and (b) $897 when the loss was in the ninth month of pregnancy. The cow value indicated pregnant cows should be kept. The expected future production of a cow with respect to a similar average cow was an important determinant in the cow replacement decision. The expected production in the rest of the lactation was more important for nonpregnant cows, and the expected production in successive lactations was more important for pregnant cows. A 120% expected milk production for a cow with MIM = 16 and 6 mo pregnant in the present lactation or in successive lactations determined between 1.52 and 6.48 times the cow value, respectively, of an average production cow. The cow value decreased by $211 for every 1 percentage point of expected genetic gain of the replacement. A break-even analysis of the cow value with respect to expected milk production of an average second-parity cow indicated that (1) nonpregnant cows in MIM = 1 and 8 could still remain in the herd if they produced at least 84 and 98% in the present lactation or if they produced at least 78 and 97% in future lactations, respectively; and (2) cows becoming pregnant in MIM = 5 would require at least 64% of milk production in the rest of the lactation or 93% in successive lactations to remain in the herd. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The precision problem in conservation and restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hiers, J. Kevin; Jackson, Stephen T.; Hobbs, Richard J.; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Valentine, Leonie E.

2016-01-01

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit options for managers trying to balance competing objectives with limited resources. Conservation policies should embrace habitat variability, expand decision-space appropriately, and support adaptation to local circumstances to increase ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world.

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Community Involvement in Developing Policies for Genetic Testing: Assessing the Interests and Experiences of Individuals Affected by Genetic Conditions

PubMed Central

Gollust, Sarah E.; Apse, Kira; Fuller, Barbara P.; Miller, Paul Steven; Biesecker, Barbara B.

2005-01-01

Because the introduction of genetic testing into clinical medicine and public health creates concerns for the welfare of individuals affected with genetic conditions, those individuals should have a role in policy decisions about testing. Mechanisms for promoting participation range from membership on advisory committees to community dialogues to surveys that provide evidence for supporting practice guidelines. Surveys can assess the attitudes and the experiences of members of an affected group and thus inform discussions about that community’s concerns regarding the appropriate use of a genetic test. Results of a survey of individuals affected with inherited dwarfism show how data can be used in policy and clinical-practice contexts. Future research of affected communities’ interests should be pursued so that underrepresented voices can be heard. PMID:15623855

Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ananda, Jayanath

2007-04-01

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.

Social work and end-of-life decisions: self-determination and the common good.

PubMed

Wesley, C A

1996-05-01

Client self-determination is the key element of NASW's policy statement about social work intervention in end-of-life decisions. However, both self-determination and the common good must be respected in social work practice and policy regarding end-of-life decisions. This article discusses self-determination in end-of-life decision making, ethical decision making and the NASW Code of Ethics, and professional ethics based on a balanced view of both self-determination and the common good. Recommendations for professional practice and social policy are offered.

Beyond Earth's boundaries: Human exploration of the Solar System in the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

This is an annual report describing work accomplished in developing the knowledge base that will permit informed recommendations and decisions concerning national space policy and the goal of human expansion into the solar system. The following topics are presented: (1) pathways to human exploration; (2) human exploration case studies; (3) case study results and assessment; (4) exploration program implementation strategy; (5) approach to international cooperation; (6) recommendations; and (7) future horizons.

The global land rush and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2015-08-01

Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

Ecological science and sustainability for the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmer, Margaret A.; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Chornesky, Elizabeth A.; Collins, Scott L.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Duke, Clifford S.; Gold, Barry; Jacobson, Robert B.; Kingsland, Sharon E.; Kranz, Rhonda H.; Mappin, Michael J.; Martinez, M. Luisa; Micheli, Fiorenza; Morse, Jennifer L.; Pace, Michael L.; Pascual, Mercedes; Palumbi, Stephen S.; Reichman, O. J.; Townsend, Alan R.; Turner, Monica G.

2005-01-01

Ecological science has contributed greatly to our understanding of the natural world and the impact of humans on that world. Now, we need to refocus the discipline towards research that ensures a future in which natural systems and the humans they include coexist on a more sustainable planet. Acknowledging that managed ecosystems and intensive exploitation of resources define our future, ecologists must play a greatly expanded role in communicating their research and influencing policy and decisions that affect the environment. To accomplish this, they will have to forge partnerships at scales and in forms they have not traditionally used. These alliances must act within three visionary areas: enhancing the extent to which decisions are ecologically informed; advancing innovative ecological research directed at the sustainability of the planet; and stimulating cultural changes within the science itself, thereby building a forward-looking and international ecology. We recommend: (1) a research initiative to enhance research project development, facilitate large-scale experiments and data collection, and link science to solutions; (2) procedures that will improve interactions among researchers, managers, and decision makers; and (3) efforts to build public understanding of the links between ecosystem services and humans.

Decision-making for delivery location and quality of care among slum-dwellers: a qualitative study in Uttar Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Sudhinaraset, May; Beyeler, Naomi; Barge, Sandhya; Diamond-Smith, Nadia

2016-07-07

In 2013, the Government of India launched the National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) in order to better address the health needs of urban populations, including the nearly 100 million living in slums. Maternal and neonatal health indicators remain poor in India. The objective of this study is to highlight the experiences of women, their husbands, and mothers-in-law related to maternal health services and delivery experiences. In total, we conducted 80 in-depth interviews, including 40 with recent mothers, 20 with their husbands, and 20 with their mothers-in-law. Purposeful sampling was conducted in order to obtain differences across delivery experiences (facility vs. home), followed by their family members. Major factors that influence decision-making about where to seek care included household dynamics and joint-decision-making with families, financial barriers, and perceived quality of care. Women perceived that private facilities were higher quality compared to public facilities, but also more expensive. Disrespectful care, bribes in the facility, and payment challenges were common in this population. A number of programmatic and policy recommendations are highlighted from this study. Future endeavors should include a greater focus on health education and public programs, including educating women on how to access programs, who is eligible, and how to obtain public funds. Families need to be educated on their rights and expectations in facilities. Future programs should consider the role of husbands and mothers-in-law in reproductive decision-making and support during deliveries. Triangulating information from multiple sources is important for future research efforts.

Integrated Decision Tools for Sustainable Watershed/Ground Water and Crop Health using Predictive Weather, Remote Sensing, and Irrigation Decision Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. S.; Andales, A.; McGovern, C.; Smith, G. E. B.; David, O.; Fletcher, S. J.

2017-12-01

US agricultural and Govt. lands have a unique co-dependent relationship, particularly in the Western US. More than 30% of all irrigated US agricultural output comes from lands sustained by the Ogallala Aquifer in the western Great Plains. Six US Forest Service National Grasslands reside within the aquifer region, consisting of over 375,000 ha (3,759 km2) of USFS managed lands. Likewise, National Forest lands are the headwaters to many intensive agricultural regions. Our Ogallala Aquifer team is enhancing crop irrigation decision tools with predictive weather and remote sensing data to better manage water for irrigated crops within these regions. An integrated multi-model software framework is used to link irrigation decision tools, resulting in positive management benefits on natural water resources. Teams and teams-of-teams can build upon these multi-disciplinary multi-faceted modeling capabilities. For example, the CSU Catalyst for Innovative Partnerships program has formed a new multidisciplinary team that will address "Rural Wealth Creation" focusing on the many integrated links between economic, agricultural production and management, natural resource availabilities, and key social aspects of govt. policy recommendations. By enhancing tools like these with predictive weather and other related data (like in situ measurements, hydrologic models, remotely sensed data sets, and (in the near future) linking to agro-economic and life cycle assessment models) this work demonstrates an integrated data-driven future vision of inter-meshed dynamic systems that can address challenging multi-system problems. We will present the present state of the work and opportunities for future involvement.

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

PubMed

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Integrated Modeling of Water Policy Futures in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjelland, M. K.; Forster, C. B.; Grant, W. E.; Collins, K.

2004-12-01

Divided by an international border, the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys (IMVs) are linked by shared history, natural resources, culture and economy. This region is experiencing changes driven by policy makers both within and outside the IMVs. The largest external decision, the Colorado River Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) of 2003, opens the door to a laboratory for studying the consequences of a massive transfer of agricultural water to municipal users. Two irrigation districts, two urban water agencies and the State of California have agreed to a 75 year of more than 30 million acre-feet of Colorado River water from agricultural to urban use. Although Imperial Valley farmers will be compensated for water conservation and land fallowing, the economic, environmental and social consequences are unclear. Farmers who fallow will likely cause a greater impact on local businesses and government than those choosing on-field water conservation. Reduced agricultural water use causes reduced flow of irrigation runoff, at higher salinity than before, to the Salton Sea that, in turn, impacts the population dynamics of Ichthyan and Avian species at the Salton Sea. Municipal wastewater discharged into the New River by Mexicali, Mexico is also an important source of inflow to the Salton Sea that will be reduce by plans to reclaim the wastewater for various uses, including cooling water for two new power plants in the Mexicali. A restoration program is funded to produce a Sea with much reduced surface area. But this approach may, in turn, lead to increases in windblown dust from the dry lakebed that will contribute to an air basin already designated as a federal nonattainment area for particulate emissions. Additional water will be conserved by lining the All American and Coachella canals. But, eliminating seepage from the All American canal reduces groundwater recharge to aquifers used by Mexican farmers. A complex interplay of water-related issues must be accounted for if planners and residents of the IMVs are to make sound socioeconomic and environmental policy decisions. We use a spatially-explicit, stochastic, simulation compartment model (based on difference equations with a daily time step programmed with STELLAr software) to simulate the hydrologic system that underlies our broader modeling of the socioeconomic and environmental future of the IMVs. Alternative future scenarios are defined and used to explore the hydrologic and environmental implications of variations in future Colorado River flows, and various water-related policy decisions. The results of a suite of simulations, made assuming that the Sea is not impounded in small sub-Seas, suggest that the salinity of the Salton Sea is most likely to continue increasing. If this is the case, and if restoration of the Salton Sea continues to be a high priority, then more aggressive water conservation methods or a much smaller Salton Sea will be required. More aggressive conservation will lead to greater socioeconomic concerns, while a smaller Sea will increase concerns regarding windblown dust from the exposed lakebed.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

When 'solutions of yesterday become problems of today': crisis-ridden decision making in a complex adaptive system (CAS)--the Additional Duty Hours Allowance in Ghana.

PubMed

Agyepong, Irene Akua; Kodua, Augustina; Adjei, Sam; Adam, Taghreed

2012-10-01

Implementation of policies (decisions) in the health sector is sometimes defeated by the system's response to the policy itself. This can lead to counter-intuitive, unanticipated, or more modest effects than expected by those who designed the policy. The health sector fits the characteristics of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and complexity is at the heart of this phenomenon. Anticipating both positive and negative effects of policy decisions, understanding the interests, power and interaction between multiple actors; and planning for the delayed and distal impact of policy decisions are essential for effective decision making in CAS. Failure to appreciate these elements often leads to a series of reductionist approach interventions or 'fixes'. This in turn can initiate a series of negative feedback loops that further complicates the situation over time. In this paper we use a case study of the Additional Duty Hours Allowance (ADHA) policy in Ghana to illustrate these points. Using causal loop diagrams, we unpack the intended and unintended effects of the policy and how these effects evolved over time. The overall goal is to advance our understanding of decision making in complex adaptive systems; and through this process identify some essential elements in formulating, updating and implementing health policy that can help to improve attainment of desired outcomes and minimize negative unintended effects.

[The role of research-based evidence in health system policy decision-making].

PubMed

Patiño, Daniel; Lavis, John N; Moat, Kaelan

2013-01-01

Different models may be used for explaining how research-based evidence is used in healthcare system policy-making. It is argued that models arising from a clinical setting (i.e. evidence-based policy-making model) could be useful regarding some types of healthcare system decision-making. However, such models are "silent" concerning the influence of political contextual factors on healthcare policy-making and are thus inconsistent with decision-making regarding the modification of healthcare system arrangements. Other political science-based models would seem to be more useful for understanding that research is just one factor affecting decision-making and that different types of research-based evidence can be used instrumentally, conceptual or strategically during different policy-making stages.

Older persons' experiences and perspectives of receiving social care: a systematic review of the qualitative literature.

PubMed

de São José, José; Barros, Rosanna; Samitca, Sanda; Teixeira, Ana

2016-01-01

The topic of social care for older people has gained increasing attention from the part of academics, professionals, policy makers and media. However, we know little about this topic from the perspectives of older persons, which hinders future developments in terms of theory, empirical research, professional practice and social policy. This article presents and discusses a systematic review of relevant qualitative research-based evidence on the older persons' experiences and perspectives of receiving social care published between 1990 and September 2014. This review aimed to obtain answers to the following questions: How is the reception of social care experienced by the older persons? What are the negative and positive aspects of these experiences? What are the factors which influence the experiences? The synthesis of the findings of reviewed papers identified six analytical themes: asking for care as a major challenge; ambivalences; (dis)engagement in decisions concerning care; multiple losses as outcomes of receiving social care; multiple strategies to deal with losses originated by the ageing process; and properties of 'good care'. These themes are discussed from the point of view of their implications for theory, care practice and social policy, and future research. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Knowledge exchange for climate adaptation planning in western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, Gregg; Orr, Barron

2015-04-01

In western North America, the combination of sustained drought, rapid ecosystem changes, and land use changes associated with urban population growth has motivated concern among ecosystem managers about the implications of future climate changes for the landscapes which they manage. Through literature review, surveys, and workshop discussions, we assess the process of moving from concern, to planning, to action, with an emphasis on questions, such as: What are the roles of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge exchange? Which practices lead to effective interactions between scientists, decision-makers, and knowledge brokers? While there is no "one size fits all" science communication method, the co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decision-makers, as co-equals, is a resource intensive, but effective practice for moving adaptation planning forward. Constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong communication links between predictions, impacts and solutions. Resource managers need information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, region-specific projections of climate changes and impacts, frank discussion of uncertainties, and opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decision-makers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research, which bolsters credibility. We find that uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning. Candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, including those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors, with practitioners, science translators, and subject experts, stimulates constructive thinking on adaptation strategies. Discussion support to explore multiple future scenarios and research nuances advances the discussion beyond "uncertainty paralysis."

Integrating urban recharge uncertainty into standard groundwater modeling practice: A case study on water main break predictions for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, Austin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinner, K.; Teasley, R. L.

2016-12-01

Groundwater models serve as integral tools for understanding flow processes and informing stakeholders and policy makers in management decisions. Historically, these models tended towards a deterministic nature, relying on historical data to predict and inform future decisions based on model outputs. This research works towards developing a stochastic method of modeling recharge inputs from pipe main break predictions in an existing groundwater model, which subsequently generates desired outputs incorporating future uncertainty rather than deterministic data. The case study for this research is the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas. Researchers and water resource professionals have modeled the Edwards Aquifer for decades due to its high water quality, fragile ecosystem, and stakeholder interest. The original case study and model that this research is built upon was developed as a co-design problem with regional stakeholders and the model outcomes are generated specifically for communication with policy makers and managers. Recently, research in the Barton Springs segment demonstrated a significant contribution of urban, or anthropogenic, recharge to the aquifer, particularly during dry period, using deterministic data sets. Due to social and ecological importance of urban water loss to recharge, this study develops an evaluation method to help predicted pipe breaks and their related recharge contribution within the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. To benefit groundwater management decision processes, the performance measures captured in the model results, such as springflow, head levels, storage, and others, were determined by previous work in elicitation of problem framing to determine stakeholder interests and concerns. The results of the previous deterministic model and the stochastic model are compared to determine gains to stakeholder knowledge through the additional modeling

Highlights from the Future Earth Water-Energy-Food (W-E-F) Nexus Cluster Project Consultations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawford, R. G.

2017-12-01

Future Earth launched its W-E-F Nexus project in 2015. The focus of the project was to explore how improved governance and integrated information systems could support sustainability in the W-E-F Nexus. Workshops were held in four regions of the world (North America, Europe, Eastern Asia, and Southern Africa) which facilitated a better understanding of the current role of information in decision-making within the W-E-F Nexus. In each of these workshops, needs and options for improving the provision of relevant integrated data and information to support decision-making were discussed. The workshops provided distinct perspectives on W-E-F issues for each region and each sector. Regional differences arise from climate, geomorphology, natural resources and existing infrastructure as well as the economic and social policies within each country. While the needs associated with this diversity are large, it is still possible to identify unifying themes and requirements for data and information which appeared very similar in all the regions. Important themes involve developing a common rigorous definition of the Nexus, ensuring the availability of data of all types are available in the scales, frequencies, and accuracies needed to support better decision making; and promoting the gathering, analysis and use of information to break down the silos associated with the three sectors are made. Information is also needed to monitor the effects of land ownership and land management on W-E-F issues, to maximize the efficiencies that can be realized from joint planning and increased coherence in the sectoral policy approaches to address climate and environmental issues. After commenting on these opportunities the presentation will outline possible elements of a research agenda for moving the W-E-F Nexus approach forward.

Amy Rose | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Rose is a member of the Markets & Policy Analysis Group in the Strategic Energy Analysis Center integration of renewable energy Research Interests Energy policy and regulation Decision support tools to inform power sector policy and regulatory decisions Energy and development International energy policy

Towards an Earth System Knowledge Environment Designed to Promote More Usable Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Killeen, T. L.

2006-12-01

It is abundantly clear that fundamental decisions about how to manage future human society will need to be informed by quantitative scientific analyses of processes, options, impacts, and responses. In fact, one could argue that the human experience into the foreseeable future will increasingly be tied to the integrating of information, understanding, and experiences to create knowledge and with it solutions to emerging problems as well as opportunities for further progress. This is particularly true for the Geosciences. Our scientific field, and by extension our Union, has a special responsibility for informing policy makers and the public about how the earth system functions and about the relationship between environmental stressors and human activities. In this regard, a greatly improved working interface between natural and social scientists is needed. In this talk, I argue that something like an "Earth System Knowledge Environment" or "Earth System Collaboratory" should be developed using modern information technologies to encapsulate and make accessible existing and emerging interdisciplinary knowledge of particular use to decision makers. Such a "work place" should be open to all and could provide access to observations, models and theories in ways that more easily allow for credible scientific understanding to be translated into policy options at all levels. Examples of fledgling efforts along these lines will be cited in areas such as severe weather impacts and climate change. The challenges involved in creating more usable scientific knowledge are, of course, quite significant and include major issues such as: institutional impediments to interdisciplinary research, the role of proprietary interests, the difficulties involved in working across the natural/social science boundary, and the challenge of developing the kind of human capital needed to effectively close the gap between good science and public policy.

EFOMP project on the role of biomedical physics in the education of healthcare professionals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruana, Carmel J.; Wasilewska-Radwanska, M.; Aurengo, A.; Dendy, P. P.; Karenauskaite, V.; Malisan, M. R.; Meijer, J. H.; Mornstein, V.; Rokita, E.; Vano, E.; Wucherer, M.

2009-01-01

The policy statements describing the role of the medical physicist (and engineer) published by organizations representing medical physics (and engineering) in Europe include the responsibility of providing a contribution to the education of healthcare professionals (physicians and paramedical professions). As a consequence, medical physicists and engineers provide educational services in most Faculties of Medicine / Health Science in Europe. In 2005, the EFOMP council took the decision to set up a Special Interest Group to develop the role of the medical physics educator in such faculties and to work with other healthcare professional groups to produce updated European curricula for them. The effort of the group would provide a base for the progress of the role, its relevance to contemporary healthcare professional education and provide input for future EFOMP policy documents regarding this important aspect of the role of the medical physicist. The present communication will present the group, summarise its latest research and indicate future research directions.

Decision-making contexts involving Earth observations in federal and state government agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Y.; Thompson, A.

2017-12-01

National and international organizations are placing greater emphasis on the societal and economic benefits that can be derived from applications of Earth observations, yet improvements are needed to connect to the decision processes that produce actions with direct societal benefits. The Consortium for the Valuation of Applications Benefits Linked with Earth Science (VALUABLES), a cooperative agreement between Resources for the Future (RFF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), has the goal of advancing methods for the valuation and communication of the applied benefits linked with Earth observations. One of the Consortium's activities is a set of Policy Briefs that document the use of Earth observations for decision making in federal and state government agencies. In developing these Policy Briefs, we pay special attention to documenting the entire information value chain associated with the use of Earth observations in government decision making, namely (a) the specific data product, modeling capability, or information system used by the agency, (b) the decision context that employs the Earth observation information and translates it into an agency action, (c) the outcomes that are realized as a result of the action, and (d) the beneficiaries associated with the outcomes of the decision. Two key examples include the use of satellite data for informing the US Drought Monitor (USDM), which is used to determine the eligibility of agricultural communities for drought disaster assistance programs housed at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the use of satellite data by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection to develop numeric nutrient water quality standards and monitoring methods for chlorophyll-a, which is codified in Florida state code (62-302.532).

Effectiveness guidance document (EGD) for Chinese medicine trials: a consensus document

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for more Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) on Chinese medicine (CM) to inform clinical and policy decision-making. This document aims to provide consensus advice for the design of CER trials on CM for researchers. It broadly aims to ensure more adequate design and optimal use of resources in generating evidence for CM to inform stakeholder decision-making. Methods The Effectiveness Guidance Document (EGD) development was based on multiple consensus procedures (survey, written Delphi rounds, interactive consensus workshop, international expert review). To balance aspects of internal and external validity, multiple stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, researchers and payers were involved in creating this document. Results Recommendations were developed for “using available data” and “future clinical studies”. The recommendations for future trials focus on randomized trials and cover the following areas: designing CER studies, treatments, expertise and setting, outcomes, study design and statistical analyses, economic evaluation, and publication. Conclusion The present EGD provides the first systematic methodological guidance for future CER trials on CM and can be applied to single or multi-component treatments. While CONSORT statements provide guidelines for reporting studies, EGDs provide recommendations for the design of future studies and can contribute to a more strategic use of limited research resources, as well as greater consistency in trial design. PMID:24885146

Governance and decision making in complex socio-hydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia; Hassanzadeh, Elmira

2017-04-01

The transboundary Saskatchewan River, originating in the Canadian Rockies in Alberta, flows through Saskatchewan and Manitoba and discharges its water into Lake Winnipeg. It supports irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, flood protection, municipal water supplies, mining, recreation, and environmental services across a large area and in multiple administrative jurisdictions. Managing the region's water-based economic activities and environmental services, requires decisions at a variety of scales to incorporate competing values and priorities about water use. Current inter-provincial allocations are based on the 1969 Master Agreement of Water Apportionment whereby upstream Alberta must release one-half of the annual natural flows of the Saskatchewan River to Saskatchewan, which in turn must pass one-half of the residual natural flow to the Province of Manitoba. This analysis uses a hydro-economic simulation model, SWAMP, to examine risk-based tradeoffs in Saskatchewan for various types of water use including, agriculture, energy, and flood protection under various scenarios of water availability. The eco-hydrological effects of the scenarios on the largest inland delta in North America - the Saskatchewan River Delta - are also shown. Results enable decision makers to weigh the costs and benefits of implementing particular sector-based future development strategies. Assuming net provincial benefit as a single monetary indicator of economic value, the effects of various scenarios of environmental and policy changes are quantified Results show that improving irrigation technology and expanding irrigated lands in Alberta will positively affect the province's economic development and have compound effects downstream on hydropower generation, environmental flows and the economies of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The implementation of similar policies in Saskatchewan will have different downstream impacts because of the large hydro-power capacity downstream in Manitoba. The model highlights the spatial tradeoffs across the three provinces and sectoral trade-offs among the differing water uses. These trade-offs represent challenging dilemmas for water management decisions in a complex system. The study reveals the need for a holistic framework of water resources analysis that can dynamically capture the feedback loops among hydrological, social, and administrative/political analysis units to support public discussion of critical water tradeoffs and a consensual water value framework to guide future development decisions.

Identifying geoscience knowledge likely to affect foreign policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelmelis, J. A.

2006-12-01

The earth sciences play an important role in foreign policy and have done so throughout history. Whether it is access to resources, knowledge of weather or other earth system conditions, planning for or responding to disasters, protecting the environment, facilitating transportation and communication, or any of a number of other important topics, the geosciences continue to inform our decision making. The importance of science, technology, and health (STH) is being increasingly recognized in the foreign policy community. The National Research Council (NRC) recommended that the Department of State (State) expand its scientific base to address the importance of STH issues. In part, this consists of increasing the number of scientists within State. Another important aspect is not only identifying the STH issues that are of current concern, but also the issues that will be of importance in the future. A number of studies funded by the U.S. Government have identified some important STH areas of concern at a high level. These provide a basis for more in-depth investigations. However, there are additional phenomena, beyond those identified in the studies, which have foreign policy implications. The scientific findings may be well known to scientists but their foreign policy importance is not always obvious. The scientific and foreign policy communities could improve their dialog to better develop strategies for foreign policy and future scientific research. One way to help facilitate that is to ease identification of scientific issues with potential significance to foreign policy and to clarify uncertainties around those issues. A qualitative method relating the likelihood that the scientific finding has foreign policy importance to the potential level of foreign policy importance has been used to clarify the significance of a variety of scientific findings including Arctic warming, methane hydrates, atmospheric dust, disease, and natural hazards. From a foreign policy perspective, the significance of some scientific findings can cascade through emerging international issues and manifest themselves in ways that have both strategic and tactical concern.

Policies toward advanced display in the Clinton administration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Jeffrey A.

1994-04-01

The Clinton administration is using its policy toward advanced displays as a test case for making industry-specific policies. They have established a number of criteria for advanced displays that they hope to apply to other industries in the future. For example, they want to support the development of generic technologies through ARPA and NIST, while minimizing the government's role in key business decisions. They want the industry (by which they mean the tool makers, the component assemblers, and the systems firms) to agree internally before they go ahead with their promotional policies. Given the past history of the advanced display industry, especially its disunity in regard to the enforcement of the successful antidumping petition of the Advanced Display Manufacturers Association and to efforts to create the U.S. Display Consortium, these criteria will be hard to meet. Nevertheless, there now appears to be much greater consensus among the three groups than in the past on the need to build indigenous technological capabilities in advanced displays.

An Overview of NASA's Program of Future M&S VV&A Outreach and Training Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caine, Lisa; Hale, Joseph P.

2006-01-01

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model s fidelity, credibility, and quality. The Integrated Modeling & Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (IM&S W&A) process will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model s results for mission-critical decisions. The W&A Technical Working Group (W&A TWG) has been identified to communicate this process throughout the agency. As the W&A experts, the W&A NVG will be the central resource for support of W&A policy, procedures, training and templates for documentation. This presentation will discuss the W&A Technical Working Group s outreach approach aimed at educating M&S program managers, developers, users and proponents on the W&A process, beginning at MSFC with the CLV program.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Keeney, Ralph L

2017-03-01

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Characteristics of physicians who frequently see pharmaceutical sales representatives.

PubMed

Alkhateeb, Fadi M; Khanfar, Nile M; Clauson, Kevin A

2009-01-01

Pharmaceutical sales representatives (PSRs) can impact physician prescribing. The objective of this study was to test a model of physician and practice setting characteristics as influences on decisions by physicians to see PSRs. A survey was sent to a random sample of 2000 physicians. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to test models for predicting influences on decisions to see PSRs frequently, defined as at least monthly. Independent variables included: presence of restrictive policy for pharmaceutical detailing, volume of prescriptions, gender, age, type of specialty, academic affiliation, practice setting size, and urban versus rural. The dependent variable was frequency of PSRs visits to physicians. Six hundred seventy-one responses were received yielding a response rate of 34.7%. Four hundred thirty-two physicians (79.5%) reported seeing PSRs at least monthly. The decision influence model was found to be significant. Primary care physicians and high-volume prescribers showed increased likelihood to see PSRs. Physicians practicing in settings that were small, urban, without restrictive policies for pharmaceutical detailing, and not academically affiliated were more likely to see PSRs frequently. This model of physician and practice characteristics is useful in explaining the variations in physicians' characteristics who see PSRs frequently. These characteristics could be used to guide the development of future academic or counter-detailing initiatives to improve evidence-based prescribing.

Optimal dynamic remapping of parallel computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.; Reynolds, Paul F., Jr.

1987-01-01

A large class of computations are characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. The decision problem was considered regarding the remapping of workload to processors in a parallel computation when the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload is uncertain, and phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements may change radically between phases. For these problems a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost was addressed. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to show that the remapping decision policy minimizing the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure. Because the gain may not be predictable, the performance of a heuristic policy that does not require estimnation of the gain is examined. The heuristic method's feasibility is demonstrated by its use on an adaptive fluid dynamics code on a multiprocessor. The results suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change. The results also suggest that this heuristic is applicable to computations with more than two phases.

Great Decisions '86.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoepli, Nancy L., Ed.

Designed to initiate discussion of foreign policy decisions, this book contains an analysis of eight foreign policy issues confronting the United States in 1986. Each unit provides the background and guidelines to provide perspective to assist in understanding foreign policy crises. The units included in this issue are: (1) "How Foreign Policy Is…

Policy Route Map for Academic Libraries' Digital Content

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koulouris, Alexandros; Kapidakis, Sarantos

2012-01-01

This paper presents a policy decision tree for digital information management in academic libraries. The decision tree is a policy guide, which offers alternative access and reproduction policy solutions according to the prevailing circumstances (for example acquisition method, copyright ownership). It refers to the digital information life cycle,…

Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

2013-08-01

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by increasing transparency and consistency. Conservation Biology © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Health services analysis as a tool for evidence-based policy decisions: the case of the Ministry of Health and Social Security in Mexico.

PubMed

Kroeger, Axel; Hernandez, Juan Manuel

2003-12-01

To describe the strengths and weaknesses of two Mexican health care providers for poor populations [Ministry of Health (MoH) and Social Security (SS)] in order to facilitate policy decisions about the future of the two systems. In four Mexican states we conducted (i) a household interview survey in 10 724 households; (ii) a user satisfaction survey in 1319 households; (iii) a satisfaction survey of 236 health workers; (iv) in-depth interviews with 190 health workers; (v) 188 focus-group discussions with different population groups; (vi) a document analysis. Both systems serve populations with similar characteristics of poverty. The availability of resources was better in the MoH system; SS care was better concerning process indicators (family planning, antenatal care; in-service delivery of drugs, staff productivity, user satisfaction and staff motivation), efficiency and effectiveness (reduction of morbidity and mortality). Possible explanatory factors for the better performance of the SS system were strong supervision, regular communication, joint data analysis and annual population surveys. Better service organization makes a difference regarding efficiency and effectiveness. Policy-makers, deciding on which kind of health services are best for the poor, should take into account health services' analyses.

Series: Clinical Epidemiology in South Africa. Paper 1: Evidence-based health care and policy in Africa: past, present, and future.

PubMed

Young, Taryn; Garner, Paul; Clarke, Mike; Volmink, Jimmy

2017-03-01

Africa has high disease burden and health system challenges but is making progress in recognizing, accepting, and adopting evidence-based health care (EBHC). In this article, we reflect on the developments of the past 2 decades and consider further steps that will help with the translation of reliable research results into the decision making process. There has been a rapid growth in various initiatives to promote EBHC in the African region. These include the conduct and reporting of primary and secondary research, research capacity development and supportive initiatives, access to information, and work with decision makers in getting research into clinical guidelines and health policies. Much, however, still needs to be done to improve the impact on health in the region. A multipronged approach consisting of regionally relevant well-conducted research addressing priority health problems, increased uptake of research in health care policy and practice, dedicated capacity development initiatives to support the conduct as well as use of research, facilitated by wider collaboration, and equitable partnerships will be important. Working together in mutually supporting partnerships is key to advancing both evidence-informed health care practices and better health. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Corporate influence and conflicts of interest: assessment of veterinary medical curricular changes and student perceptions.

PubMed

Dowers, Kristy L; Schoenfeld-Tacher, Regina M; Hellyer, Peter W; Kogan, Lori R

2015-01-01

The ethics document of the Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges provides guiding principles for veterinary schools to develop conflict of interest policies. These policies regulate faculty and student interactions with industry, potentially reducing the influence companies have on students' perceptions and future prescribing practices. This paper examines the implementation of a conflict of interest policy and related instructional activities at one veterinary college in the US. To inform policy and curricular development, survey data were collected regarding veterinary students' attitudes toward pharmaceutical marketing, including their perceptions of their own susceptibility to bias in therapeutic decisions. Responses from this group of students later served as control data for assessing the effectiveness of educational programs in the content area. A conflict of interest policy was then implemented and presented to subsequent classes of entering students. Classroom instruction and relevant readings were provided on ethics, ethical decision making, corporate influences, and the issue of corporate influence in medical student training. Within seven days of completing a learning program on conflict of interest issues, another cohort of veterinary students (the treatment group) were administered the same survey that had been administered to the control group. When compared with the control group who received no instruction, survey results for the treatment group showed moderate shifts in opinion, with more students questioning the practice of industry-sponsored events and use of corporate funds to reduce tuition. However, many veterinary students in the treatment group still reported they would not be personally influenced by corporate gifts.

Space-Derived Transparency: Players, Policies, Implications, and Synergies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnan, C. J.

2001-06-01

Space-derived transparency will become a common means of monitoring, preventing, and mitigating crises, verifying compliance with treaties and law, and enabling confidence and security building measures. Democratization and globalization, the proliferation of information technologies, the availability of commercial space high-resolution imagery, and the growing influence of NGOs invite this question: What is (space-derived) transparency and what effect does it have on US security policy? Three camps have emerged in the debate -Horaeists who seek to build a transnational society through complete transparency; Preservationists, mostly military, who fear the threat to national security, want to deny most space-derived information to non-traditional/non-state actors; and Synergists who seek to capitalize on the best of both camps. There is evidence suggesting that space-derived transparency is an inevitable trend and will resist even the best means of preservationist control. Space-derived transparency may change the dynamic of the security environment by introducing new players into the policy fomentation and implementation process. These players, if not properly schooled in imagery analysis or the potential effects of their use of misinterpreted space-derived imagery, could force policy makers to make fast, ill-considered decisions in order to respond to incidents. In some cases this fast response will defuse potential crises and in other situations these rushed decisions might result in policies without considering the potential consequences, which could turn incidents into crises. Space-derived transparency is a step forward into the future for each camp . . . the challenge for the United States lies in forging synergies in an increasingly transparent world while maintaining the balance between openness and security.

Policies for patient access to clinical data via PHRs: current state and recommendations.

PubMed

Collins, Sarah A; Vawdrey, David K; Kukafka, Rita; Kuperman, Gilad J

2011-12-01

Healthcare delivery organizations are increasingly using online personal health records (PHRs) to provide patients with direct access to their clinical information; however, there may be a lack of consistency in the data made available. We aimed to understand the general use and functionality of PHRs and the organizational policies and decision-making structures for making data available to patients. A cross-sectional survey was administered by telephone structured interview to 21 organizations to determine the types of data made available to patients through PHRs and the presence of explicit governance for PHR data release. Organizations were identified based on a review of the literature, PHR experts, and snowball sampling. Organizations that did not provide patients with electronic access to their data via a PHR were excluded. Interviews were conducted with 17 organizations for a response rate of 81%. Half of the organizations had explicit governance in the form of a written policy that outlined the data types made available to patients. Overall, 88% of the organizations used a committee structure for the decision-making process and included senior management and information services. All organizations sought input from clinicians. Discussion There was considerable variability in the types of clinical data and the time frame for releasing these data to patients. Variability in data release policies may have implications for PHR use and adoption. Future policy activities, such as requirement specification for the latter stages of Meaningful Use, should be leveraged as an opportunity to encourage standardization of functionality and broad deployment of PHRs.

Recruitment of multiple stakeholders to health services research: lessons from the front lines.

PubMed

Kho, Michelle E; Rawski, Ellen; Makarski, Julie; Brouwers, Melissa C

2010-05-13

Self-administered surveys are an essential methodological tool for health services and knowledge translation research, and engaging end-users of the research is critical. However, few documented accounts of the efforts invested in recruitment of multiple different stakeholders to one health services research study exist. Here, we highlight the challenges of recruiting key stakeholders (policy-makers, clinicians, guideline developers) to a Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) funded health services research (HSR) study aimed to develop an updated and refined version of a guideline appraisal tool, the AGREE. Using evidence-based methods of recruitment, our goal was to recruit 192 individuals: 80 international guideline developers, 80 Canadian clinicians and 32 Canadian policy/decision-makers. We calculated the participation rate and the recruitment efficiency. We mailed 873 invitation letters. Of 838 approached, our participation rate was 29%(240) and recruitment efficiency, 19%(156). One policy-maker manager did not allow policy staff to participate in the study. Based on the results from this study, we suggest that future studies aiming to engage similar stakeholders in HSR over sample by at least 5 times to achieve their target sample size and allow for participant withdrawals. We need continued efforts to communicate the value of research between researchers and end-users of research (policy-makers, clinicians, and other researchers), integration of participatory research strategies, and promotion of the value of end-user involvement in research. Future research to understand methods of improving recruitment efficiency and engaging key stakeholders in HSR is warranted.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

"It just forces hardship": impacts of government financial penalties on non-vaccinating parents.

PubMed

Helps, Catherine; Leask, Julie; Barclay, Lesley

2018-01-22

Despite strong evidence confirming vaccination is safe and effective, some parents choose not to vaccinate their children. In 2016, the Australian Government introduced legislation strengthening links between vaccination compliance and some government payments. We interviewed thirty-one non-vaccinating parents about the impacts of this policy. Data analysis produced three key themes: 'questioning policy integrity', 'minimising impact' and 'holding my ground'. Affected parents offset reduced income by removing children from early childhood learning, reducing work commitments, moving residence to reduce living costs and accessing informal childcare arrangements. Parents reported a greater commitment to their decision not to vaccinate and an increased desire to maintain control over health choices for their children including an unprecedented willingness to become involved in protest action. Our study identifies why financial penalties have not been an effective policy measure for this sample of non-vaccinating parents, an understanding which may assist in the development of future legislation.

The introduction of mentorship to Project 2000 in Wales.

PubMed

Neary, M; Phillips, R; Davies, B

1996-03-13

This study focused upon the introduction of mentors in the Common Foundation Programme (CFP) of Project 2000 (UKCC 1986) in Wales. It was commissioned by the Department of Health Research and Development Division on behalf of the Welsh Office Nursing Division. The study was policy oriented and its purpose was to inform future policy decision making through an analysis of the implementation of current policies for pre-registration education. The full title of our research project, 'The practitioner teacher: a study in the introduction of mentors in the pre-registration nurse education programme', implied that a clinically-based nurse practitioner with a designated teaching remit, fulfills a particular role (that of mentor) in the pre-registration nurse education programme. It was the nature, scope and impact of this mentor role during the initial implementation period of the CFP of Project 2000 in Wales to which this study addressed itself.

Urbanization and watershed sustainability: Collaborative simulation modeling of future development states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Raposa, Sarah

2014-11-01

Urbanization has a significant impact on water resources and requires a watershed-based approach to evaluate impacts of land use and urban development on watershed processes. This study uses a simulation with urban policy scenarios to model and strategize transferable recommendations for municipalities and cities to guide urban decisions using watershed ecohydrologic principles. The watershed simulation model is used to evaluation intensive (policy in existing built regions) and extensive (policy outside existing build regions) urban development scenarios with and without implementation of Best Management practices (BMPs). Water quantity and quality changes are simulated to assess effectiveness of five urban development scenarios. It is observed that optimal combination of intensive and extensive strategies can be used to sustain urban ecosystems. BMPs are found critical to reduce storm water and water quality impacts on urban development. Conservation zoning and incentives for voluntary adoption of BMPs can be used in sustaining urbanizing watersheds.

Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic Region.

PubMed

Tran, Liem T; Knight, C Gregory; O'Neill, Robert V; Smith, Elizabeth R; Riitters, Kurt H; Wickham, James

2002-06-01

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.

America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

The Politics of Evidence Use in Health Policy Making in Germany-the Case of Regulating Hospital Minimum Volumes.

PubMed

Ettelt, Stefanie

2017-06-01

This article examines the role of scientific evidence in informing health policy decisions in Germany, using minimum volumes policy as a case study. It argues that scientific evidence was used strategically at various stages of the policy process both by individual corporatist actors and by the Federal Joint Committee as the regulator. Minimum volumes regulation was inspired by scientific evidence suggesting a positive relationship between service volume and patient outcomes for complex surgical interventions. Federal legislation was introduced in 2002 to delegate the selection of services and the setting of volumes to corporatist decision makers. Yet, despite being represented in the Federal Joint Committee, hospitals affected by its decisions took the Committee to court to seek legal redress and prevent policy implementation. Evidence has been key to support, and challenge, decisions about minimum volumes, including in court. The analysis of the role of scientific evidence in minimum volumes regulation in Germany highlights the dynamic relationship between evidence use and the political and institutional context of health policy making, which in this case is characterized by the legislative nature of policy making, corporatism, and the role of the judiciary in reviewing policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 by Stefanie Ettelt.

Application of Future State Decision Making in the Eagle Combat Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 1 7 Cosati Codes 18 S:iDj,.ct Terms (continue on... cncd 30 40 co el C14N- LI)I E- . IC041 00 E E. C) CD 0 06. 4104 xd- .r - 1 w a S.CL U.~- 0 S.31 Cl- w cu N ~ ~ -.- - f Lin EEn LM 0f CCN. ’C4 0 4-it 0

Integrated Clinical Information System Collaboration Project (CPOE)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

variation in care, represents an extraordinary opportunity to  positively  impact  current and future quality outcomes.      General  Patient  Outcomes...those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position , policy or decision unless so designated by...process for submitting orders. This study examined the impact of the transition from paper order entry to CPOE on patient care by the adoption of

Energy demand forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Energy demand forecasting and its connection with national energy policies and decisions is examined in light of recent, sharply revised estimates of future energy requirements. Techniques of economic projects are examined. Modeling of energy demands is discussed. Renewable energy sources are discussed. The shift away from reliance of domestic users on oil and natural gas toward electricity as a primary energy resource is examined in the context of the need to conserve energy and expand generating capacity in order to avoid a significant electricity shortfall.

Decision space for health workforce management in decentralized settings: a case study in Uganda.

PubMed

Alonso-Garbayo, Alvaro; Raven, Joanna; Theobald, Sally; Ssengooba, Freddie; Nattimba, Milly; Martineau, Tim

2017-11-01

The aim of this paper is to improve understanding about how district health managers perceive and use their decision space for human resource management (HRM) and how this compares with national policies and regulatory frameworks governing HRM. The study builds upon work undertaken by PERFORM Research Consortium in Uganda using action-research to strengthen human resources management in the health sector. To assess the decision space that managers have in six areas of HRM (e.g. policy, planning, remuneration and incentives, performance management, education and information) the study compares the roles allocated by Uganda's policy and regulatory frameworks with the actual room for decision-making that district health managers perceive that they have. Results show that in some areas District Health Management Team (DHMT) members make decisions beyond their conferred authority while in others they do not use all the space allocated by policy. DHMT members operate close to the boundaries defined by public policy in planning, remuneration and incentives, policy and performance management. However, they make decisions beyond their conferred authority in the area of information and do not use all the space allocated by policy in the area of education. DHMTs' decision-making capacity to manage their workforce is influenced by their own perceived authority and sometimes it is constrained by decisions made at higher levels. We can conclude that decentralization, to improve workforce performance, needs to devolve power further down from district authorities onto district health managers. DHMTs need not only more power and authority to make decisions about their workforce but also more control over resources to be able to implement these decisions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A climate game based on a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M.; Hasselmann, K.

2003-04-01

In November 2002 a special exhibition on climate issues opened in the German Museum for Science and Techniques ('Deutsches Museum') in Munich. Within this exposition we present an interactive game in which visitors control future climate policy by adopting the role of either the government, a CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of a global company or a typical private household of an industrialized country. The players endeavor to maintain a sustainable climate in the future (global goal) while pursuing their own individual welfare goals. Task of the exhibition visitor is to combine the personal interests of the actor he is adopting with the global goal. The individual goal of government is maintain economic growth while avoiding conflicts due to inter-regional or societal inequalities. The CEO seeks to maximize total profits (business earnings). The goal of households is to maximize wages and interest earnings. The evolution of the economic system and climate is governed by the decisions of the actors. Government sets economic side conditions in terms of carbon taxes, subsidies for R&D or market infusion support for climate-friendly technologies, and transfers development aid to less advanced regions. The CEOs decide how much to invest in a number of alternative investment options and in which region. Households influences the economy by their purchasing and savings decisions. The model considers four regions, three real actors (mentioned above) and two different goods (climate-adverse and a climate-friendly). We introduce four different kinds of energy (coal, oil/gas, nuclear, renewable). A World Bank handles money flows. At different points in time the actors can cooperate with other actors in order to reach the global goal Stochastic elements regarding future technology and future climate are included. A touch-screen monitor with user friendly interface is used to present animations and videos. An animated climate scientist uses a climate simulator to compute future climate scenarios in response to the actors decisions. The goal of the project is t o to give them a feeling for the problem and demonstrate that that a sustainable future climate can be combined with individual welfare goals if the right decisions are made at the right time.

An Introduction to Solar Decision-Making Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mow, Benjamin

2017-09-12

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers a variety of models and analysis tools to help decision makers evaluate and make informed decisions about solar projects, policies, and programs. This fact sheet aims to help decision makers determine which NREL tool to use for a given solar project or policy question, depending on its scope.

User Oriented Techniques to Support Interaction and Decision Making with Large Educational Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Almuhaidib, Saud M. Y.

2007-01-01

Information Technology is developing rapidly and providing policy/decision makers with large amounts of information that require processing and analysis. Decision support systems (DSS) aim to provide tools that not only help such analyses, but enable the decision maker to experiment and simulate the effects of different policies and selection…

The Precision Problem in Conservation and Restoration.

PubMed

Hiers, J Kevin; Jackson, Stephen T; Hobbs, Richard J; Bernhardt, Emily S; Valentine, Leonie E

2016-11-01

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit options for managers trying to balance competing objectives with limited resources. Conservation policies should embrace habitat variability, expand decision-space appropriately, and support adaptation to local circumstances to increase ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding farmers' strategic decision-making processes and the implications for biodiversity conservation policy.

PubMed

Farmar-Bowers, Quentin; Lane, Ruth

2009-02-01

The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called 'boxes of influence' that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms.

Policy change and governance at the wildland-urban interface: the case of post-wildfire impacts in Boise, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric

2013-04-01

In the summer of 2012 over 1.7 million acres (approximately 6900 sq kilometers) were burned from wildfires in the state of Idaho in the Western United States. While most of the these fires were in rural and wilderness areas, several significant fires occurred at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), threatening houses, communities and the built environment as never before. As the population of the Mountain West in the United States grows, the WUI (the area where homes are being built adjacent to traditionally wild or rural areas and the built environment encroaches on wildlands) is rapidly becoming an at risk area for human habitation. Efforts to make these areas more resilient and sustainable in the face of increasing fire risk, due to increasing drought and climate change, are resulting in efforts to change or adapt disaster response and planning policy. An increase in stakeholders, however, with diverse objectives and resources presents an opportunity to assess the current governance situation for policy change in response to wildland fires in the dynamic and complex context of the WUI. The research presented here will focus on the case of Treasure Valley region of southwest Idaho and Boise, the capitol city of Idaho. This region is illustrative of the growing urban western United States and the pressures from a growing population pushing into the WUI. This research frames fire policy and decision making at the wildland-urban interface within public policy process theory using the example of the summer of 2012 forest fires in Idaho (USA) and focuses on subsequents impact these fires are having on fire planning and policy in the Boise metropolitan region. The focus is on the diverse stakeholders (federal, state and regional agencies, tourism, agriculture and private sector interests, homeowner organizations, and fire response and recovery agencies) and their roles and responsibilities, their interactions, decision and policy processes, the use of science in decision making, post and pre disaster assessments, and subsequent policy changes. The conclusions will reflect on the outlook for the future of the WUI in regard to wildfire risk and response and on the contribution of policy process theory to this policy domain. This paper/poster addresses significant theoretical and empirical issues raised in the Call for Papers for NH7.1 "Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory and reality," including: pre-fire planning and risk management; post-fire evaluation; relation between wildfires and social changes; and the influence of weather and climate change on wildfire activity.

Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

PubMed

Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

2012-01-01

At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Background and Objective: Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. Methods: This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. Results: The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. Conclusion: In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making. PMID:29854016

Barriers, facilitators, strategies and outcomes to engaging policymakers, healthcare managers and policy analysts in knowledge synthesis: a scoping review protocol

PubMed Central

Tricco, Andrea C; Zarin, Wasifa; Rios, Patricia; Pham, Ba’; Straus, Sharon E; Langlois, Etienne V

2016-01-01

Introduction Engaging policymakers, healthcare managers and policy analysts in the conduct of knowledge synthesis can help increase its impact. This is particularly important for knowledge synthesis studies commissioned by decision-makers with limited timelines, as well as reviews of health policy and systems research. A scoping review will be conducted to assess barriers, facilitators, strategies and outcomes of engaging these individuals in the knowledge synthesis process. Methods and analysis We will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute guidance for scoping reviews. Literature searches of electronic databases (eg, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, ERIC, PsycINFO) will be conducted from inception onwards. The electronic search will be supplemented by searching for sources that index unpublished/difficult to locate studies (eg, GreyNet International database), as well as through scanning of reference lists of reviews on related topics. All study designs using either qualitative or quantitative methodologies will be eligible if there is a description of the strategies, barriers or facilitators, and outcomes of engaging policymakers, healthcare managers and policy analysts in the knowledge synthesis process. Screening and data abstraction will be conducted by 2 team members independently after a calibration exercise across the team. A third team member will resolve all discrepancies. We will conduct frequency analysis and thematic analysis to chart and characterise the literature, identifying data gaps and opportunities for future research, as well as implications for policy. Ethics and dissemination This project was commissioned by the Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, WHO. The results will be used by Alliance Review Centers of health policy and systems research in low-income and middle-income countries that are conducting knowledge synthesis to inform health policymaking and decision-making. Our results will also be disseminated through conference presentations, train-the-trainer events, peer-reviewed publication and a 1-page policy brief that will be posted on the authors' websites. PMID:28011815

Inside and Outside the Policy Consensus: Science in a Time of Policy Upheaval in Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCurdy, K. M.

2011-12-01

A public policy consensus in the United States typically lasts fifty years, an epoch in politics. During periods of relative stability, Constitutional provisions protect the status quo and Congressional procedures favor incremental changes. The consensus breaks down when elections bring members into the institutions with fundamentally different assumptions about the purpose of government. The ensuing policy upheaval brings change that is likely to be transformational with the new policy resembling little of what existed before. The important determinants of potential for policy upheaval and subsequent innovation are the magnitude of the electoral victory, committee specialization and seniority of the members remaining in Congress. The late 19th century policy arc that created the USGS and other rationally based government agencies used scientists to depoliticize important development decisions - e.g. where and when to build irrigation projects or research facilities. The country flourished through the 20th century as politicians of both parties agreed to keep science as a neutral advisor to their decision process. This consensus began to fray after WWII when nuclear physicists, among others, questioned DOD nuclear weapons development plans; the Sierra Club challenged dams on the Colorado River; and tragic mistakes such as thalidomide and DES became well known. Science became vulnerable to politicization as the prior consensus was dismantled incrementally election by election. The late 20th century saw increasingly small majority party margins and divided government became a regular election result instead of a rarity. Divided government lasted for one election cycle before party realignments in 1860, 1896 and 1934. Coincident with the recurring periods of divided government since 1980 without a recognizable realignment was a transformation in the view of science from "collaborator" to "enemy" in the policy process. Geosciences have been caught in the legislative crossfire as coalitions attempted to forge a consensus to create their vision of a prosperous future. Small government actually means that R&D is not a proper function of government, so scientists must be on the program chopping block, and discrediting your opponents is a time honored means of eliminating political competition. The policy phase boundary is marked by deviations from Congress handing routine matters over to the low-conflict, low-public-attention bureaucratic decision-making arena. The recent severe budget cuts to the USGS and NSF research funding were high-conflict events held in the glare of TV camera lights and marked by charges that scientists are perpetrating a hoax or lying. Climate science suddenly was thrown into electoral politics instead of the routine give and take of bureaucratic decision-making. Knowing the terrain in Congress will help scientists know when a policy phase transition is occurring. This will allow scientists to better plan presentations. Style will be different if a presentation is made to collaborators rather than those who may use what is said to harm rather than help bring federal resources to a project.

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Influence of strategic direction for NHS Scotland knowledge services on indexing policy for the NHS Scotland e-library.

PubMed

McLeod, Lorraine; Thain, Annette; Wales, Ann

2005-03-01

Indexing policy for the NHS Scotland e-Library needs to maximize future inter-operability with other significant health- and social-care-related resources. The strategic drive towards integration and partnership working means that the indexing system has to be widely acceptable to the full range of disciplines within the integrated health-care family. Indexes identified by various means and then shortlisted using predefined criteria. Three subject indexes have been chosen--Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), CareData and the Government Category List (GCL), plus mapping between natural language and MeSH terms. This decision was a reasonable compromise between the strategy-driven aim of seamless access for all 'partners in care', and practical constraints of time/manpower. Other authority files (e.g. geographical area, language) are also standards based, and customised to reflect the information needs of an increasingly integrated health-care system. No single index could provide the scope required to meet the widening range of NHS information need. The influence of high-level strategic aims and objectives have extended their reach to influence indexing policy for the e-Library. Our indexing policy will continue to evolve and contribute to a knowledge management infrastructure capable of supporting current and future NHS Scotland information needs and strategy. Layperson terminology was identified as a gap; additional measures to address this gap are highlighted.

Policy decision-making under scientific uncertainty: radiological risk assessment and the role of expert advisory groups.

PubMed

Mossman, Kenneth L

2009-08-01

Standard-setting agencies such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency depend on advice from external expert advisory groups on matters of public policy and standard-setting. Authoritative bodies including the National Research Council and the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements provide analyses and recommendations that enable the technical and scientific soundness in decision-making. In radiological protection the nature of the scientific evidence is such that risk assessment at radiation doses typically encountered in environmental and occupational settings is highly uncertain, and several policy alternatives are scientifically defensible. The link between science and policy is problematic. The fundamental issue is the failure to properly consider risk assessment, risk communication, and risk management and then consolidate them in a process that leads to sound policy. Authoritative bodies should serve as unbiased brokers of policy choices by providing balanced and objective scientific analyses. As long as the policy-decision environment is characterized by high scientific uncertainty and a lack of values consensus, advisory groups should present unbiased evaluations of all scientifically plausible alternatives and recommend selection criteria that decision makers can use in the policy-setting process. To do otherwise (e.g., by serving as single position advocates) weakens decision-making by eliminating options and narrowing discussions of scientific perspectives. Understanding uncertainties and the limitations on available scientific information and conveying such information to policy makers remain key challenges for the technical and policy communities.

Who's afraid of institutionalizing health technology assessment (HTA)?: Interests and policy positions on HTA in the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Löblová, Olga

2018-04-01

This article identifies the interests and policy positions of key health policy stakeholders regarding the creation of a health technology assessment (HTA) agency in the Czech Republic, and what considerations influenced them. Vested interests have been suggested as a factor mitigating the diffusion of HTA bodies internationally. The Czech Republic recently considered and discarded establishing an HTA agency, making it a good case for studying actors' policy positions throughout the policy debates. Findings are based on in-depth, semi-structured expert and elite interviews with 34 key Czech health policy actors, supported by document analysis and extensive triangulation. Findings show that the HTA epistemic community of 'aspiring agents' was the only actor strongly in favor of an HTA body. Payers and the medical device and diagnostics industry were against it; patients and clinicians had no clear preferences. Original decision-makers were in favor but a new minister of health opted for a simpler policy alternative to solve his need for expertise. Existing institutions, policy alternatives and the institutional design of a future HTA body influence domestic actors' preferences for or against an HTA agency. Domestic and international proponents of HTA should give serious thought to their concerns when advocating for HTA bodies.

Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra-Llobet, A.

2014-12-01

Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land-use decisions.

Health financing policies in Sub-Saharan Africa: government ownership or donors' influence? A scoping review of policymaking processes.

PubMed

Gautier, Lara; Ridde, Valéry

2017-01-01

The rise on the international scene of advocacy for universal health coverage (UHC) was accompanied by the promotion of a variety of health financing policies. Major donors presented health insurance, user fee exemption, and results-based financing policies as relevant instruments for achieving UHC in Sub-Saharan Africa. The "donor-driven" push for policies aiming at UHC raises concerns about governments' effective buy-in of such policies. Because the latter has implications on the success of such policies, we searched for evidence of government ownership of the policymaking process. We conducted a scoping review of the English and French literature from January 2001 to December 2015 on government ownership of decision-making on policies aiming at UHC in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thirty-five (35) results were retrieved. We extracted, synthesized and analyzed data in order to provide insights on ownership at five stages of the policymaking process: emergence, formulation, funding, implementation, and evaluation. The majority of articles (24/35) showed mixed results (i.e. ownership was identified at one or more levels of policymaking process but not all) in terms of government ownership. Authors of only five papers provided evidence of ownership at all reviewed policymaking stages. When results demonstrated some lack of government ownership at any of the five stages, we noticed that donors did not necessarily play a role: other actors' involvement was contributing to undermining government-owned decision-making, such as the private sector. We also found evidence that both government ownership and donors' influence can successfully coexist. Future research should look beyond indicators of government ownership, by analyzing historical factors behind the imbalance of power between the different actors during policy negotiations. There is a need to investigate how some national actors become policy champions and thereby influence policy formulation. In order to effectively achieve government ownership of financing policies aiming at UHC, we recommend strengthening the State's coordination and domestic funding mobilization roles, together with securing a higher involvement of governmental (both political and technical) actors by donors.

Using Decision Analysis to Improve Malaria Control Policy Making

PubMed Central

Kramer, Randall; Dickinson, Katherine L.; Anderson, Richard M.; Fowler, Vance G.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Mutero, Clifford M.; Saterson, Kathryn A.; Wiener, Jonathan B.

2013-01-01

Malaria and other vector-borne diseases represent a significant and growing burden in many tropical countries. Successfully addressing these threats will require policies that expand access to and use of existing control methods, such as insecticide-treated bed nets and artemesinin combination therapies for malaria, while weighing the costs and benefits of alternative approaches over time. This paper argues that decision analysis provides a valuable framework for formulating such policies and combating the emergence and re-emergence of malaria and other diseases. We outline five challenges that policy makers and practitioners face in the struggle against malaria, and demonstrate how decision analysis can help to address and overcome these challenges. A prototype decision analysis framework for malaria control in Tanzania is presented, highlighting the key components that a decision support tool should include. Developing and applying such a framework can promote stronger and more effective linkages between research and policy, ultimately helping to reduce the burden of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. PMID:19356821

Shared decision making in endocrinology: present and future directions.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Gutierrez, Rene; Gionfriddo, Michael R; Ospina, Naykky Singh; Maraka, Spyridoula; Tamhane, Shrikant; Montori, Victor M; Brito, Juan P

2016-08-01

In medicine and endocrinology, there are few clinical circumstances in which clinicians can accurately predict what is best for their patients. As a result, patients and clinicians frequently have to make decisions about which there is uncertainty. Uncertainty results from limitations in the research evidence, unclear patient preferences, or an inability to predict how treatments will fit into patients' daily lives. The work that patients and clinicians do together to address the patient's situation and engage in a deliberative dialogue about reasonable treatment options is often called shared decision making. Decision aids are evidence-based tools that facilitate this process. Shared decision making is a patient-centred approach in which clinicians share information about the benefits, harms, and burden of different reasonable diagnostic and treatment options, and patients explain what matters to them in view of their particular values, preferences, and personal context. Beyond the ethical argument in support of this approach, decision aids have been shown to improve patients' knowledge about the available options, accuracy of risk estimates, and decisional comfort. Decision aids also promote patient participation in the decision-making process. Despite accumulating evidence from clinical trials, policy support, and expert recommendations in endocrinology practice guidelines, shared decision making is still not routinely implemented in endocrine practice. Additional work is needed to enrich the number of available tools and to implement them in practice workflows. Also, although the evidence from randomised controlled trials favours the use of this shared decision making in other settings, populations, and illnesses, the effect of this approach has been studied in a few endocrine disorders. Future pragmatic trials are needed to explore the effect and feasibility of shared decision making implementation into routine endocrinology and primary care practice. With the available evidence, however, endocrinologists can now start to practice shared decision making, partner with their patients, and use their expertise to formulate treatment plans that reflect patient preferences and are more likely to fit into the context of patients' lives. In this Personal View, we describe shared decision making, the evidence behind the approach, and why and how both endocrinologists and their patients could benefit from this approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transposition and implementation of EU rare disease policy in Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Pejcic, Ana V; Iskrov, Georgi; Raycheva, Ralitsa; Stefanov, Rumen; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Michael

2017-12-01

А series of European Union (EU) political decisions have made rare diseases one of the cornerstones of the common European health policy. Adopted in 2009, Council Recommendation on an action in the field of rare diseases aimed to serve as a policy-making guideline. However, the implementation report, which followed it, neither performed detailed cross-country comparison, nor assessed the impact of the policies. Areas covered: A 10-indicator set was elaborated to structure the review and to describe rare disease activities in 14 Eastern European countries. Expert commentary: Taking into account all indicators, EU member states outperform candidate and potential candidate countries in terms of rare disease policy planning and implementation. Hungary is the top performer, followed by Bulgaria and Czech Republic. Non-EU countries form the bottom tier, with Serbia being the best ranked among them. While EU adhesion is a major facilitator for planning and adopting rare disease policies, local stakeholders are the triggering factor for their successful implementation. European reference networks are likely to be the future of rare disease activities in the EU. They need to synchronize and closely collaborate with all important EU projects in the field of rare diseases if they are to achieve their objectives.

My Summer with Science Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Marissa

This past summer I interned at the American Institute of Physics and helped research and write articles for the FYI Science Policy Bulletin. FYI is an objective digest of science policy developments in Washington, D.C. that impact the greater physical sciences community. Over the course of the summer, I independently attended, analyzed, and reported on a variety of science, technology, and funding related events including congressional hearings, government agency advisory committee meetings, and scientific society events. I wrote and co-wrote three articles on basic energy research legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology improvement act, and the National Science Foundation's big ideas for future investment. I had the opportunity to examine some challenging questions such as what is the role of government in funding applied research? How should science priorities be set? What is the right balance of funding across different agencies and programs? I learned about how science policy is a two-way street: science is used to inform policy decisions and policy is made to fund and regulate the conduct of science. I will conclude with how my summer working with FYI showed me the importance of science advocacy, being informed, and voting. Society of Physics Students.

Social control and coercion in addiction treatment: towards evidence-based policy and practice.

PubMed

Wild, T Cameron

2006-01-01

Social pressures are often an integral part of the process of seeking addiction treatment. However, scientists have not developed conclusive evidence on the processes, benefits and limitations of using legal, formal and informal social control tactics to inform policy makers, service providers and the public. This paper characterizes barriers to a robust interdisciplinary analysis of social control and coercion in addiction treatment and provides directions for future research. Conceptual analysis and review of key studies and trends in the area are used to describe eight implicit assumptions underlying policy, practice and scholarship on this topic. Many policies, programmes and researchers are guided by a simplistic behaviourist and health-service perspective on social controls that (a) overemphasizes the use of criminal justice systems to compel individuals into treatment and (b) fails to take into account provider, patient and public views. Policies and programmes that expand addiction treatment options deserve support. However, drawing a firm distinction between social controls (objective use of social pressure) and coercion (client perceptions and decision-making processes) supports a parallel position that rejects treatment policies, programmes, and associated practices that create client perceptions of coercion.

Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus

PubMed Central

Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

2016-01-01

Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients’ involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. PMID:27694659

An examination of a voluntary policy model to effect ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An examination of a voluntary policy model to effect behavioral change and influence interactions and decision-making in the freight sector An examination of a voluntary policy model to effect behavioral change and influence interactions and decision-making in the freight sector

Quantifying human behavior uncertainties in a coupled agent-based model for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, J. Y.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Macknick, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling human behaviors and decisions in water resources management is a challenging issue due to its complexity and uncertain characteristics that affected by both internal (such as stakeholder's beliefs on any external information) and external factors (such as future policies and weather/climate forecast). Stakeholders' decision regarding how much water they need is usually not entirely rational in the real-world cases, so it is not quite suitable to model their decisions with a centralized (top-down) approach that assume everyone in a watershed follow the same order or pursue the same objective. Agent-based modeling (ABM) uses a decentralized approach (bottom-up) that allow each stakeholder to make his/her own decision based on his/her own objective and the belief of information acquired. In this study, we develop an ABM which incorporates the psychological human decision process by the theory of risk perception. The theory of risk perception quantifies human behaviors and decisions uncertainties using two sequential methodologies: the Bayesian Inference and the Cost-Loss Problem. The developed ABM is coupled with a regulation-based water system model: Riverware (RW) to evaluate different human decision uncertainties in water resources management. The San Juan River Basin in New Mexico (Figure 1) is chosen as a case study area, while we define 19 major irrigation districts as water use agents and their primary decision is to decide the irrigated area on an annual basis. This decision will be affected by three external factors: 1) upstream precipitation forecast (potential amount of water availability), 2) violation of the downstream minimum flow (required to support ecosystems), and 3) enforcement of a shortage sharing plan (a policy that is currently undertaken in the region for drought years). Three beliefs (as internal factors) that correspond to these three external factors will also be considered in the modeling framework. The objective of this study is to use the two-way coupling between ABM and RW to mimic how stakeholders' uncertain decisions that have been made through the theory of risk perception will affect local and basin-wide water uses.

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

Long-term Strategic Planning for a Resilient Metro Colombo: An Economic Case for Wetland Conservation and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

Colombo faces recurrent floods that threaten its long-term economic development. Its urban wetlands have been identified by local agencies as a critical component of its flood reduction system, but they have declined rapidly in recent years due to continuous infilling, unmanaged land development and dredging to create lakes. In collaboration with government agencies, NGOs and local universities, the World Bank has carried out a Robust Decision Making analysis to examine the value of Colombo urban wetlands, both in the short-term and long-term, and identify what are the most viable strategies available to increase the city's flood resilience in an unclear future (in terms of climate change and patterns of urban development). This has involved the use of numerous hydrological and socio-economic scenarios as well as the evaluation of some wetlands benefits, like ecosystem services, wastewater treatment, or recreational services. The analysis has determined that if all urban wetlands across the Colombo catchment were lost, in some scenarios the metropolitan area would have to cope with an annual average flood loss of approximately 1% of Colombo GDP in the near future. For long-term strategies, trade-offs between urban development, lake creation and wetland conservation were analyzed and it was concluded that an active management of urban wetlands was the lowest regret option. Finally, the analysis also revealed that in the future, with climate change and fast urban development, wetlands will not be sufficient to protect Colombo against severe floods. Pro-active urban planning and land-use management are therefore necessary, both to protect existing wetlands and to reduce future exposure. The use of many different scenarios, the consideration of several policy options, and the open participatory process ensured policy-makers' buy-in and lead to the decision to actively protect urban wetlands in Colombo.

The next 25 years: Industrialization of space: Rationale for planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonputtkamer, J.

1976-01-01

The goals of NASA's space industralization program include contributing to increased productivity on earth without taxing the environment, generating new values through extraterrestrial productivity, and providing new growth options for the future which include the permanent settlement of space and long-range colonization and exploration projects. In planning the long-range space program based on essentially utilitarian aspects, without losing sight of the more humanistically significant long term, and to forecast associated technology requirements, a realistic approach is obtained by combining extrapolative and normative planning modes so that common stepping stones can be identified. In the extrapolative view, alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies. In the normative view, some ideal state in the far future is envisioned or postulated, and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment.

Colorectal cancer patients’ attitudes towards involvement in decision making

PubMed Central

Beaver, Kinta; Campbell, Malcolm; Craven, Olive; Jones, David; Luker, Karen A.; Susnerwala, Shabbir S.

2009-01-01

Abstract Objectives  To design and administer an attitude rating scale, exploring colorectal cancer patients’ views of involvement in decision making. To examine the impact of socio‐demographic and/or treatment‐related factors on decision making. To conduct principal components analysis to determine if the scale could be simplified into a number of factors for future clinical utility. Methods  An attitude rating scale was constructed based on previous qualitative work and administered to colorectal cancer patients using a cross‐sectional survey approach. Results  375 questionnaires were returned (81.7% response). For patients it was important to be informed and involved in the decision‐making process. Information was not always used to make decisions as patients placed their trust in medical expertise. Women had more positive opinions on decision making and were more likely to want to make decisions. Written information was understood to a greater degree than verbal information. The scale could be simplified to a number of factors, indicating clinical utility. Conclusion  Few studies have explored the attitudes of colorectal cancer patients towards involvement in decision making. This study presents new insights into how patients view the concept of participation; important when considering current policy imperatives in the UK of involving service users in all aspects of care and treatment. PMID:19250150

Optimizing patient treatment decisions in an era of rapid technological advances: the case of hepatitis C treatment.

PubMed

Liu, Shan; Brandeau, Margaret L; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2017-03-01

How long should a patient with a treatable chronic disease wait for more effective treatments before accepting the best available treatment? We develop a framework to guide optimal treatment decisions for a deteriorating chronic disease when treatment technologies are improving over time. We formulate an optimal stopping problem using a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process. The goal is to maximize a patient's quality-adjusted life expectancy. We derive structural properties of the model and analytically solve a three-period treatment decision problem. We illustrate the model with the example of treatment for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). Chronic HCV affects 3-4 million Americans and has been historically difficult to treat, but increasingly effective treatments have been commercialized in the past few years. We show that the optimal treatment decision is more likely to be to accept currently available treatment-despite expectations for future treatment improvement-for patients who have high-risk history, who are older, or who have more comorbidities. Insights from this study can guide HCV treatment decisions for individual patients. More broadly, our model can guide treatment decisions for curable chronic diseases by finding the optimal treatment policy for individual patients in a heterogeneous population.

The current capacity and future development of economic evaluation for policy decision-making: a survey among researchers and decision-makers in Thailand.

PubMed

Chaikledkaew, Usa; Lertpitakpong, Chanida; Teerawattananon, Yot; Thavorncharoensap, Montarat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2009-01-01

This study aims to explore the knowledge, experience, and attitudes toward economic evaluation (EE) among decision-makers and researchers in Thailand. Researchers were purposively selected from Thai academics and both public and private research organizations related to EE. Decision-makers at the provincial level were purposively selected from the members of the Management Committees of Provincial Health Offices, and those at hospital level were randomly selected from members of the public and private hospital formulary drug committees throughout Thailand. The self-administered postal questionnaires were distributed. Univariate and bivariate analyses were applied. Of the total 2575 questionnaires distributed, 758 (29.4% response rate) were completed and sent back. The majority of researchers and decision-makers were not familiar with technical terms commonly used in health EE, e.g., incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, discounting, and sensitivity analysis. More decision-makers (70.6%) had never had EE training compared to researchers (50.0%). Both roles indicated that value for money was one of the important issues to consider for health technology adoption. An extensive unmet demand for EE training among Thai researchers and decision-makers still exists. Findings from this study contribute to the short- and long-term plans for research capacity building.

Optimizing Patient Treatment Decisions in an Era of Rapid Technological Advances: The Case of Hepatitis C Treatment

PubMed Central

Liu, Shan; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.; Brandeau, Margaret L.

2015-01-01

How long should a patient with a treatable chronic disease wait for more effective treatments before accepting the best available treatment? We develop a framework to guide optimal treatment decisions for a deteriorating chronic disease when treatment technologies are improving over time. We formulate an optimal stopping problem using a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process. The goal is to maximize a patient’s quality-adjusted life expectancy. We derive structural properties of the model and analytically solve a three-period treatment decision problem. We illustrate the model with the example of treatment for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). Chronic HCV affects 3–4 million Americans and has been historically difficult to treat, but increasingly effective treatments have been commercialized in the past few years. We show that the optimal treatment decision is more likely to be to accept currently available treatment—despite expectations for future treatment improvement—for patients who have high-risk history, who are older, or who have more comorbidities. Insights from this study can guide HCV treatment decisions for individual patients. More broadly, our model can guide treatment decisions for curable chronic diseases by finding the optimal treatment policy for individual patients in a heterogeneous population. PMID:26188961

Using political science to progress public health nutrition: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cullerton, Katherine; Donnet, Timothy; Lee, Amanda; Gallegos, Danielle

2016-08-01

Poor dietary intake is the most important behavioural risk factor affecting health globally. Despite this, there has been little investment in public health nutrition policy actions. Policy process theories from the field of political science can aid understanding why policy decisions have occurred and identify how to influence ongoing or future initiatives. The present review aims to examine public health nutrition policy literature and identify whether a policy process theory has been used to analyse the process. Electronic databases were searched systematically for studies examining policy making in public health nutrition in high-income, democratic countries. International, national, state and local government jurisdictions within high-income, democratic countries. Individuals and organisations involved in the nutrition policy-making process. Sixty-three studies met the eligibility criteria, most were conducted in the USA and a majority focused on obesity. The analysis demonstrates an accelerating trend in the number of nutrition policy papers published annually and an increase in the diversity of nutrition topics examined. The use of policy process theory was observed from 2003; however, it was utilised by only 14 % of the reviewed papers. There is limited research into the nutrition policy process in high-income countries. While there has been a small increase in the use of policy process theory from 2003, an opportunity to expand its use is evident. We suggest that nutrition policy making would benefit from a pragmatic approach that ensures those trying to influence or understand the policy-making process are equipped with basic knowledge around these theories.

Variability in adolescent portal privacy features: how the unique privacy needs of the adolescent patient create a complex decision-making process.

PubMed

Sharko, Marianne; Wilcox, Lauren; Hong, Matthew K; Ancker, Jessica S

2018-05-17

Medical privacy policies, which are clear-cut for adults and young children, become ambiguous during adolescence. Yet medical organizations must establish unambiguous rules about patient and parental access to electronic patient portals. We conducted a national interview study to characterize the diversity in adolescent portal policies across a range of institutions and determine the factors influencing decisions about these policies. Within a sampling framework that ensured diversity of geography and medical organization type, we used purposive and snowball sampling to identify key informants. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed with inductive thematic analysis, followed by a member check. We interviewed informants from 25 medical organizations. Policies established different degrees of adolescent access (from none to partial to complete), access ages (from 10 to 18 years), degrees of parental access, and types of information considered sensitive. Federal and state law did not dominate policy decisions. Other factors in the decision process were: technology capabilities; differing patient population needs; resources; community expectations; balance between information access and privacy; balance between promoting autonomy and promoting family shared decision-making; and tension between teen privacy and parental preferences. Some informants believed that clearer standards would simplify policy-making; others worried that standards could restrict high-quality polices. In the absence of universally accepted standards, medical organizations typically undergo an arduous decision-making process to develop teen portal policies, weighing legal, economic, social, clinical, and technological factors. As a result, portal access policies are highly inconsistent across the United States and within individual states.

Beyond the lab: observations on the process by which science successfully informs management and policy decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, S.

2012-12-01

Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.

Beyond policy networks: policy framing and the politics of expertise in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease crisis.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Katy; Lowe, Philip; Donaldson, Andrew

2010-01-01

For the past decade, the policy community/issue network typology of pressure group interaction has been used to explain policy outcomes and the policy-making process. To re-examine the validity of this typology, the paper focuses on the UK government's response to the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) crisis, and in particular the decision to pursue contiguous culling rather than vaccination to overcome the epidemic. Rather than illustrating the emergence of an issue network in agricultural policy, the decision-making process of the FMD outbreak demonstrates continuity with prior crises. In addition, the politicization of scientific expertise is identified as an emerging trend in crisis management. Policy framing is used to explain the impetus behind the contiguous cull decision, concluding that the legacy of previous policy choices conditioned the crisis response to a far greater degree than contemporaneous pressure group action.

32 CFR 651.9 - Introduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... decision-making reflect Army environmental values, such as compliance with environmental policy, laws, and... early as possible to avoid potential delays. (b) All Army decision-making that may impact the human... ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) National Environmental Policy Act and the Decision Process...

Bringing science to the table: Case studies in science-informed decision making on climate change and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Phartiyal, P.; Mulvey, K.

2016-12-01

Federal government officials often rely on the research and advice of scientists to inform their decision making around climate change and other complex topics. Decision makers, however, are constrained by the time and accessibility needed to obtain and incorporate scientific information. At the same time, scientists have limited capacity and incentive to devote significant time to communicating their science to decision makers. The Union of Concerned Scientists has employed several strategies to produce policy-relevant scientific work and to facilitate engagement between scientists and decision makers across research areas. This talk will feature lessons learned and key strategies for science-informed decision making around climate change and other areas of the geosciences. Case studies will include conducting targeted sea level rise studies to inform rulemaking at federal agencies, bringing science to policy discussions on hydraulic fracturing, and leveraging the voice of the scientific community on specific policy proposals around climate change disclosure of companies. Recommendations and lessons learned for producing policy-relevant science and effectively communicating it with decision makers will be offered.

A new decision sciences for complex systems.

PubMed

Lempert, Robert J

2002-05-14

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Situating School District Resource Decision Making in Policy Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spain, Angeline K.

2016-01-01

Decentralization and deregulation policies assume that local educational leaders make better resource decisions than state policy makers do. Conceptual models drawn from organizational theory, however, offer competing predictions about how district central office administrators are likely to leverage their professional expertise in devolved…

Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

2015-12-01

NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

Illicit drugs and the media: models of media effects for use in drug policy research.

PubMed

Lancaster, Kari; Hughes, Caitlin E; Spicer, Bridget; Matthew-Simmons, Francis; Dillon, Paul

2011-07-01

Illicit drugs are never far from the media gaze and although identified almost a decade ago as 'a new battleground' for the alcohol and other drug (AOD) field there has been limited research examining the role of the news media and its effects on audiences and policy. This paper draws together media theories from communication literature to examine media functions. We illustrate how each function is relevant for media and drugs research by drawing upon the existing literature examining Australian media coverage during the late 1990s of escalating heroin-related problems and proposed solutions. Media can influence audiences in four key ways: by setting the agenda and defining public interest; framing issues through selection and salience; indirectly shaping individual and community attitudes towards risk; and feeding into political debate and decision making. Each has relevance for the AOD field. For example, media coverage of the escalating heroin-related problems in Australia played a strong role in generating interest in heroin overdoses, framing public discourse in terms of a health and/or criminal issue and affecting political decisions. Implications AND CONCLUSION: Media coverage in relation to illicit drugs can have multifarious effects. Incorporating media communication theories into future research and actions is critical to facilitate understanding of the short- and long-term impacts of media coverage on illicit drugs and the avenues by which the AOD field can mitigate or inform future media debates on illicit drugs. © 2010 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Climate Observations from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Stephen

2016-07-01

The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

Perspectives of self-direction: a systematic review of key areas contributing to service users' engagement and choice-making in self-directed disability services and supports.

PubMed

Lakhani, Ali; McDonald, Donna; Zeeman, Heidi

2018-05-01

Self-directed disability support policies aim to encourage greater choice and control for service users in terms of the health and social care they receive. The proliferation of self-directed disability support policies throughout the developed world has resulted in a growing amount of research exploring the outcomes for service users, and their families and carers. Our understanding of the issues faced by people with disabilities, particularly how they make health and social care decisions and the key areas that determine their engagement with service providers within a self-directed environment is limited. A synthesis of research is timely and can provide knowledge for service users and health and social care support providers to ensure their successful participation. A systematic review guided by the PRISMA approach explored (i) the key areas determining service users' engagement with self-directed disability services and supports, and (ii) how service users make informed decisions about providers. In October 2014 and April 2016, three databases - MEDLINE, CINAHL and Web of Science - were searched for research and review articles. Eighteen sources met the search criteria. Findings were mapped into either: key areas determining service user engagement, or service users' informed decision-making. Findings concerning key areas determining engagement fell into three themes - personal responsibility for budgeting, personalised approaches, and a cultural shift in practice and delivery among service providers. Findings about decision-making yielded two themes - supporting informed decision-making and inhibiting informed decision-making. Literature suggests that self-directed models of care may provide service users with increased control over the services that they receive. Increased control for some service users and their families requires independent external decision-making support, particularly around the domains of budgeting, planning and hiring. Future research must continue to investigate the perspectives of service users pertaining to their engagement, as their participation is central to the effectiveness of the approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Representation or reason: consulting the public on the ethics of health policy.

PubMed

Mullen, Caroline

2008-12-01

Consulting the public about the ethical approaches underlying health policies can seem an appealing means of addressing concerns about limited public participation in development of health policy. However ambiguity surrounds questions of whether, or how consultation can really contribute to more defensible decisions about ethical aspects of policy. This paper clarifies the role and limits of public consultation on ethics, beginning by separating different senses of defensibility in decisions on ethics. Defensibility of ethical decisions could be understood either in the sense of legitimacy in virtue of reflecting the opinions of the public whose interests are affected, or in the sense of being able to withstand and respond to challenges presented in ethical debate. The question then is whether there are forms of consultation which have the potential to realise more defensible decisions in either of these senses. Problems of adequately accounting for the views of those affected by policy decisions casts doubt on the plausibility of using consultation as a means of determining the opinions of the public. Consultation can have a role by bringing new ideas and challenges to debate, although it is uncertain whether this will increase the defensibility of any decision on ethics.

A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century.

PubMed

Likhvar, Victoria N; Pascal, Mathilde; Markakis, Konstantinos; Colette, Augustin; Hauglustaine, Didier; Valari, Myrto; Klimont, Zbigniew; Medina, Sylvia; Kinney, Patrick

2015-05-01

Ozone and PM₂.₅ are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. To better understand the potential of emissions policies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. We used consistent climate-air-quality-health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile-de-France) to assess future (2030-2050) health impacts of ozone and PM₂.₅ under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR). Consistently across the scales, we found more reductions in deaths under MFR scenario compared to CLE. 1.5 [95% CI: 0.4, 2.4] million CV deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010 under MFR scenario, 84% of which would occur in Asia, especially in China. In Europe, the benefits under MFR scenario (219000 CV deaths) are noticeably larger than those under CLE (109,000 CV deaths). In Ile-de-France, under MFR more than 2830 annual CV deaths associated with PM₂.₅ changes could be delayed in 2050 compared to 2010. In Paris, ozone-related respiratory mortality should increase under both scenarios. Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Public involvement in health priority setting: future challenges for policy, research and society.

PubMed

Hunter, David James; Kieslich, Katharina; Littlejohns, Peter; Staniszewska, Sophie; Tumilty, Emma; Weale, Albert; Williams, Iestyn

2016-08-15

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the findings of this special issue and discusses the future challenges for policy, research and society. The findings suggest that challenges emerge as a result of legitimacy deficits of both consensus and contestatory modes of public involvement in health priority setting. Design/methodology/approach - The paper draws on the discussions and findings presented in this special issue. It seeks to bring the country experiences and case studies together to draw conclusions for policy, research and society. Findings - At least two recurring themes emerge. An underlying theme is the importance, but also the challenge, of establishing legitimacy in health priority setting. The country experiences suggest that we understand very little about the conditions under which representative, or authentic, participation generates legitimacy and under which it will be regarded as insufficient. A second observation is that public participation takes a variety of forms that depend on the opportunity structures in a given national context. Given this variety the conceptualization of public participation needs to be expanded to account for the many forms of public participation. Originality/value - The paper concludes that the challenges of public involvement are closely linked to the question of how legitimate processes and decisions can be generated in priority setting. This suggests that future research must focus more narrowly on conditions under which legitimacy are generated in order to expand the understanding of public involvement in health prioritization.

Health policy making through operative actions: a case study of provider capacity reduction in a public safety-net system.

PubMed

Tataw, David B

2014-01-01

This article describes and assesses the implications of policy decisions affecting health provider capacity in the Los Angeles County municipal safety-net health system from 1980 to 2000. Although never articulated in law or a county ordinance, the county pursued a sustained and discernable policy of cost reductions that affected capacity at King/Drew Medical Center from 1980 to 2000 without the input of beneficiaries or their advocates. Year after year, the county reduced personnel, supplies, and available beds either by reducing formal budgets or through operative actions of facility administrators that prevented the implementation of formally approved expenditures. This policy appears to have undermined the hospital system's mission of providing health services to at-risk populations with nowhere else to go. Decision making during the two decades under study revealed a decision-making pattern that challenged traditional models of policy decision making.

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tisa, Paul C.

Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and their uncertainty into the same tradespace. The work presented is intended to inform better policies and investment decisions for military acquisitions. The discussion highlights areas within the DoD's understanding of energy that could improve or whose development has faltered. The new metric discussed allows the DoD to better manage and plan for long-term energy-related costs and risk.

Confession and Carrying into Execution of Foreign Arbitration Courts' Decisions: Reciprocity and Public Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sarina, Salima A.; Nukusheva, Aigul A.; Kalmagambetov, Kassym S.; Kumysbekova, Zhanara T.; Nesterova, Elena V.

2016-01-01

The article contains a comparative analysis of foreign arbitration courts' decisions, ensuring the reciprocity and public policy. The aim of the study is to explore such aspects as reciprocity and public policy of arbitration courts. The result is the view of the public policy, despite its apparent irrelevance in today's Kazakhstan, which is of…

Influencing health policy through public deliberation: Lessons learned from two decades of Citizens'/community juries.

PubMed

Degeling, Chris; Rychetnik, Lucie; Street, Jackie; Thomas, Rae; Carter, Stacy M

2017-04-01

Citizens'/community juries [CJs] engage members of the public in policy decision-making processes. CJs can be employed to develop policy responses to health problems that require the consideration of both community values and scientific evidence. Based on the principles of deliberative democracy, recent reviews indicate that findings from CJs have successfully been used to influence health policy decision-making. Despite this evidence of success, there appears to be a gap between the goals of health researchers who organize CJs and the needs of policy actors and decision makers. Drawing on our experiences working with CJs and recent research on CJ methods, we describe a synopsis of the current state of the art organized around four key questions, and informed by insights from deliberative theory and critical policy studies. Our intention is to stimulate further discussion as to the types of health policy questions that can be usefully addressed through public deliberation, and provide guidance on the methodological and political dimensions that need to be considered in deciding whether a CJ is an appropriate approach for informing a policy decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting American Policymaking to Overcome American Exceptionalism

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-13

policies of the United States were due a portion of blame for motivating the attacks of 9/11. Whether due to self - referentialism , cultural centrism, or...for. However, a deep inward look toward the foreign policy framing and decision making process is necessary to adapt that policy and address the tension...inward look toward the foreign policy framing and decision making process is necessary to adapt that policy and address the tension between U.S

Policy challenges and approaches for the conservation of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Friess, Daniel A; Thompson, Benjamin S; Brown, Ben; Amir, A Aldrie; Cameron, Clint; Koldewey, Heather J; Sasmito, Sigit D; Sidik, Frida

2016-10-01

Many drivers of mangrove forest loss operate over large scales and are most effectively addressed by policy interventions. However, conflicting or unclear policy objectives exist at multiple tiers of government, resulting in contradictory management decisions. To address this, we considered four approaches that are being used increasingly or could be deployed in Southeast Asia to ensure sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. First, a stronger incorporation of mangroves into marine protected areas (that currently focus largely on reefs and fisheries) could resolve some policy conflicts and ensure that mangroves do not fall through a policy gap. Second, examples of community and government comanagement exist, but achieving comanagement at scale will be important in reconciling stakeholders and addressing conflicting policy objectives. Third, private-sector initiatives could protect mangroves through existing and novel mechanisms in degraded areas and areas under future threat. Finally, payments for ecosystem services (PES) hold great promise for mangrove conservation, with carbon PES schemes (known as blue carbon) attracting attention. Although barriers remain to the implementation of PES, the potential to implement them at multiple scales exists. Closing the gap between mangrove conservation policies and action is crucial to the improved protection and management of this imperiled coastal ecosystem and to the livelihoods that depend on them. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Research evidence utilization in policy development by child welfare administrators.

PubMed

Jack, Susan; Dobbins, Maureen; Tonmyr, Lil; Dudding, Peter; Brooks, Sandy; Kennedy, Betty

2010-01-01

An exploratory qualitative study was conducted to explore how child welfare administrators use research evidence in decision-making. Content analysis revealed that a cultural shift toward evidence-based practice (EBP) is occurring in Canadian child welfare organizations and multiple types of evidence inform policy decisions. Barriers to using evidence include individual, organizational, and environmental factors. Facilitating factors include the development of internal champions and organizational cultures that value EBP. Integrating research into practice and policy decisions requires a multifaceted approach of creating organizational cultures that support research utilization and supporting senior bureaucrats to use research evidence in policy development.

An optimal repartitioning decision policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, D. M.; Reynolds, P. F., Jr.

1986-01-01

A central problem to parallel processing is the determination of an effective partitioning of workload to processors. The effectiveness of any given partition is dependent on the stochastic nature of the workload. The problem of determining when and if the stochastic behavior of the workload has changed enough to warrant the calculation of a new partition is treated. The problem is modeled as a Markov decision process, and an optimal decision policy is derived. Quantification of this policy is usually intractable. A heuristic policy which performs nearly optimally is investigated empirically. The results suggest that the detection of change is the predominant issue in this problem.

Basic Science and Public Policy: Informed Regulation for Nicotine and Tobacco Products.

PubMed

Fowler, Christie D; Gipson, Cassandra D; Kleykamp, Bethea A; Rupprecht, Laura E; Harrell, Paul T; Rees, Vaughan W; Gould, Thomas J; Oliver, Jason; Bagdas, Deniz; Damaj, M Imad; Schmidt, Heath D; Duncan, Alexander; De Biasi, Mariella

2018-06-07

Scientific discoveries over the past few decades have provided significant insight into the abuse liability and negative health consequences associated with tobacco and nicotine-containing products. While many of these advances have led to the development of policies and laws that regulate access to and formulations of these products, further research is critical to guide future regulatory efforts, especially as novel nicotine-containing products are introduced and selectively marketed to vulnerable populations. In this narrative review, we provide an overview of the scientific findings that have impacted regulatory policy and discuss considerations for further translation of science into policy decisions. We propose that open, bidirectional communication between scientists and policy makers is essential to develop transformative preventive- and intervention-focused policies and programs to reduce appeal, abuse liability, and toxicity of the products. Through these types of interactions, collaborative efforts to inform and modify policy have the potential to significantly decrease the use of tobacco and alternative nicotine products and thus enhance health outcomes for individuals. This work addresses current topics in the nicotine and tobacco research field to emphasize the importance of basic science research and provide examples of how it can be utilized to inform public policy. In addition to relaying current thoughts on the topic from experts in the field, the article encourages continued efforts and communication between basic scientists and policy officials.

Occupational rehabilitation in Hong Kong: current status and future needs.

PubMed

Kwok, H K H; Szeto, G P Y; Cheng, A S K; Siu, H; Chan, C C H

2011-03-01

This paper reviews the development of occupational rehabilitation in Hong Kong, both in terms of the science as well as the service for injured workers. Besides, it also reviews the existing Employees' Compensation Ordinance for work injury to illustrate how the policy could influence the success and development of the discipline. Five experienced occupational rehabilitation providers, including 1 occupational medicine specialist, 3 occupational therapists, and 1 physiotherapist critically reviewed the past and current development of occupational rehabilitation in Hong Kong as well as the local contextual factors, which could influence its future development. Since the enactment of the Employees' Compensation Ordinance in the 1950s, there have been progressive improvements in the field of occupational rehabilitation in Hong Kong. Services in the early years were mostly based on the biomedical model, where doctors and patients tended to focus on clinical symptoms and physical pathology when making clinical decisions. Since then, remarkable academic achievements have been made in the field locally, from the validation of clinical instruments for assessment of work capacity, assessment of employment readiness to the evaluation of efficacy of interventional programs for injured workers focusing on work related outcomes. However, there has been a relatively lack of progress in the development of related policies and implementation of related programs for occupational rehabilitation. There is no built in linkage between rehabilitation, compensation and prevention in the current system in Hong Kong, and there is no rehabilitation policy specific to those workers with occupational diseases and injuries. There are still deficiencies in the development and provision of occupational rehabilitation services in Hong Kong. Incorporation of requirements for occupational rehabilitation at the legislation and policy levels should be seriously considered in the future. Besides, the development of the Occupational Medicine subspecialty in the public hospital system in Hong Kong is considered a facilitator to the future development of occupational rehabilitation in Hong Kong.

Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus.

PubMed

Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

2016-06-20

Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients' involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

PubMed

Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

2017-10-02

Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

Fostering climate dialogue by introducing students to uncertainty in decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, N.; Ewen, T.; Johnson, L.; Coltekin, A.; Derungs, C.; Muccione, V.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty is present in all fields of climate research, spanning from climate projections, to assessing regional impacts and vulnerabilities to adaptation policy and decision-making. The complex and interdisciplinary nature of climate information, however, makes the decision-making process challenging. This process is further hindered by a lack of institutionalized dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. Forums that facilitate such dialogue would allow these groups to actively engage with each other to improve decisions. In parallel, introducing students to these challenges is one way to foster such climate dialogue. We present the design and outcome of an innovative workshop-seminar series we convened at the University of Zurich to demonstrate the pedagogical importance of such forums. An initial two-day workshop brought together 50 participants, including bachelor, master and PhD students and academic staff, and nine speakers from academia, industry, government, and philanthropy. The main objectives were to provide participants with tools to communicate uncertainty in their current or future research projects, to foster exchange between practitioners, students and scientists from different backgrounds and finally to expose students to multidisciplinary collaborations and real-world problems involving decisions under uncertainty. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop enabled us to observe changes in participants' perspectives on what information and tools should be exchanged between researchers and decision-makers to better address uncertainty. Responses demonstrated a marked shift from a pre-workshop vertical conceptualization of researcher-user group interaction to a post-workshop horizontal mode: in the former, researchers were portrayed as bestowing data-based products to decision-makers, while in the latter, both sets of actors engaged in frequent communication, exchanging their needs and expertise. Drawing on examples from the course evaluation, we seek to encourage the organization of similar events, introducing students to these challenges at an early stage of their education and career as a first step towards improving future dialogue.

Extending the surrogacy analogy: applying the advance directive model to biobanks.

PubMed

Solomon, Stephanie; Mongoven, Ann

2015-01-01

Biobank donors and biobank governance face a conceptual challenge akin to clinical patients and their designated surrogate decision-makers, the necessity of making decisions and policies now that must be implemented under future unknown circumstances. We propose that biobanks take advantage of this parallel to learn lessons from the historical trajectory of advance directives and develop models analogous to current 'best practice' advance directives such as Values Histories and TheFive Wishes. We suggest how such models could improve biobanks' engagement both with communities and with individual donors by being more honest about the limits of current disclosure and eliciting information to ensure the protection of donor interests more robustly through time than current 'informed consent' processes in biobanking. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A review of cost measures for the economic impact of domestic violence.

PubMed

Chan, Ko Ling; Cho, Esther Yin-Nei

2010-07-01

Although economic analyses of domestic violence typically guide decisions concerning resource allocation, allowing policy makers to make better informed decisions on how to prioritize and allocate scarce resources, the methods adopted to calculate domestic violence costs have varied widely from study to study. In particular, only a few studies have reviewed the cost measures of the economic impact of domestic violence. This article reviews and compares these measures by covering approaches to categorizing costs, the cost components, and ways to estimate them and recommends an integrated framework that brings the various approaches together. Some issues still need to be addressed when further developing measures such as including omitted but significant measures and expanding the time horizons of others. The implications for future study of domestic violence costs are discussed.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2013-01-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are comparedmore » to a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline underlying socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.« less

Public opinion concerning residential sprinkler systems for 1- and 2-family homes.

PubMed

Frattaroli, Shannon; Pollack, Keshia M; Cook, Phillip J; Salomon, Michele; Omaki, Elise; Gielen, Andrea C

Residential sprinkler systems (RSS) are one intervention to prevent fire injury and death, yet there is no literature documenting why RSS homeowners opt to purchase a sprinkler-equipped home. This manuscript describes homeowners' decisions to purchase homes with residential sprinkler systems (RSS) and their experiences with the technology. It also compares how RSS homeowners and owners of homes without RSS value sprinklers and their levels of support for policies to mandate RSS in new homes. We used a national online web panel to sample owners of 1- and 2-family homes, and descriptive methods to analyze the resulting data. Our final sample included 1,357 homeowners of 1- and 2-family homes without RSS and 976 homeowners with RSS. RSS homeowners were more likely than owners of non-RSS homes to indicate they would buy an RSS home in the future (75 % vs. 30 %), and more often indicated a willingness to pay for sprinklers (70 % vs. 40 %). RSS homeowners also expressed higher levels of support for policies to mandate RSS in all new 1- and 2-family homes (48 % vs. 19 %). The findings offer insight into educational and policy strategies to promote RSS in all new homes, and provide a foundation for future research in this area.

Can We Finish the Revolution? Gender, Work-Family Ideals, and Institutional Constraint.

PubMed

Pedulla, David S; Thébaud, Sarah

2015-02-01

Why has progress toward gender equality in the workplace and at home stalled in recent decades? A growing body of scholarship suggests that persistently gendered workplace norms and policies limit men's and women's ability to create gender egalitarian relationships at home. In this article, we build on and extend prior research by examining the extent to which institutional constraints, including workplace policies, affect young, unmarried men's and women's preferences for their future work-family arrangements. We also examine how these effects vary across levels of education. Drawing on original survey-experimental data, we ask respondents how they would like to structure their future relationships while experimentally manipulating the degree of institutional constraint under which they state their preferences. Two clear patterns emerge. First, as constraints are removed and men and women can opt for an egalitarian relationship, the majority of them choose this option, regardless of gender or education level. Second, women's relationship structure preferences are more malleable to the removal of institutional constraints via supportive work-family policy interventions than are men's. These findings shed light on important questions about the role of institutions in shaping work-family preferences, underscoring the notion that seemingly gender-traditional work-family decisions are largely contingent on the constraints of current workplaces.

Can We Finish the Revolution? Gender, Work-Family Ideals, and Institutional Constraint

PubMed Central

Pedulla, David S.; Thébaud, Sarah

2015-01-01

Why has progress toward gender equality in the workplace and at home stalled in recent decades? A growing body of scholarship suggests that persistently gendered workplace norms and policies limit men's and women's ability to create gender egalitarian relationships at home. In this article, we build on and extend prior research by examining the extent to which institutional constraints, including workplace policies, affect young, unmarried men's and women's preferences for their future work-family arrangements. We also examine how these effects vary across levels of education. Drawing on original survey-experimental data, we ask respondents how they would like to structure their future relationships while experimentally manipulating the degree of institutional constraint under which they state their preferences. Two clear patterns emerge. First, as constraints are removed and men and women can opt for an egalitarian relationship, the majority of them choose this option, regardless of gender or education level. Second, women's relationship structure preferences are more malleable to the removal of institutional constraints via supportive work-family policy interventions than are men's. These findings shed light on important questions about the role of institutions in shaping work-family preferences, underscoring the notion that seemingly gender-traditional work-family decisions are largely contingent on the constraints of current workplaces. PMID:26365994

Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

PubMed

Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

2012-05-01

The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on the map; this may suggest a need to strengthen the decision-making processes by engaging these stakeholders more centrally and earlier.

Catchment scale water resource constraints on UK policies for low-carbon energy system transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Fenner, R. A.

2017-12-01

Long-term low-carbon energy transition policy of the UK presents national scale propositions of different low-carbon energy system options that lead to meeting GHG emissions reduction target of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050. Whilst national-scale assessments suggests that water availability may not be a significant constrain on future thermal power generation systems in this pursuit, these analysis fail to capture the appropriate spatial scale where water resource decisions are made, i.e. at the catchment scale. Water is a local resource, which also has significant spatio-temporal regional and national variability, thus any policy-relevant water-energy nexus analysis must be reflective of these characteristics. This presents a critical challenge for policy relevant water-energy nexus analysis. This study seeks to overcome the above challenge by using a linear spatial-downscaling model to allocate nationally projected water-intensive energy system infrastructure/technologies to the catchment level, and estimating the water requirements for the deployment of these technologies. The model is applied to the UK Committee on Climate Change Carbon Budgets to 2030 as a case study. The paper concludes that whilst national-scale analyses show minimal long-term water related impacts, catchment level appraisal of water resource requirements reveal significant constraints in some locations. The approach and results presented in this study thus, highlights the importance of bringing together scientific understanding, data and analysis tools to provide better insights for water-energy nexus decisions at the appropriate spatial scale. This is particularly important for water stressed regions where the water-energy nexus must be analysed at appropriate spatial resolution to capture the full water resource impact of national energy policy.

Educational Goods and Values: A Framework for Decision Makers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brighouse, Harry; Ladd, Helen F.; Loeb, Susanna; Swift, Adam

2016-01-01

This article articulates a framework suitable for use when making decisions about education policy. Decision makers should establish what the feasible options are and evaluate them in terms of their contribution to the development, and distribution, of educational goods in children, balanced against the negative effect of policies on important…

[Hospital self-management policy in Chile: perceptions of decision-makers].

PubMed

Méndez, Claudio A; Miranda, Christian; Torres, M Cristina; Márquez, Myriam

2013-01-01

To learn the perceptions of decision-makers concerning the imple-men-t-ation stage of a hospital self-management policy in two highly complex hospitals in southern Chile. A descriptive, exploratory, qualitative study based on semi-structured in-depth interviews of decision-makers at the Regional Hospital of Valdivia and the Hospital San José de Osorno from August 2010 to December 2011. A convenience sample of 26 decision-makers was selected. The 26 interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The information was analyzed using inductive content analysis. The interviewees consider the concept of self-management to be determined by autonomy in decision-making about resource allocation and the financing of health service delivery in the hospitals. They also stated that human resources and financing policies should be included to improve the implementation stage. They related weaknesses with the lack of organizational capabilities and managerial skills in the health teams implementing the changes. Conceptually, the hospital self-management policy is based on financial autonomy, and implementation is affected by persistent capacity gaps in policy design.

The information value of early career productivity in mathematics: a ROC analysis of prediction errors in bibliometricly informed decision making.

PubMed

Lindahl, Jonas; Danell, Rickard

The aim of this study was to provide a framework to evaluate bibliometric indicators as decision support tools from a decision making perspective and to examine the information value of early career publication rate as a predictor of future productivity. We used ROC analysis to evaluate a bibliometric indicator as a tool for binary decision making. The dataset consisted of 451 early career researchers in the mathematical sub-field of number theory. We investigated the effect of three different definitions of top performance groups-top 10, top 25, and top 50 %; the consequences of using different thresholds in the prediction models; and the added prediction value of information on early career research collaboration and publications in prestige journals. We conclude that early career performance productivity has an information value in all tested decision scenarios, but future performance is more predictable if the definition of a high performance group is more exclusive. Estimated optimal decision thresholds using the Youden index indicated that the top 10 % decision scenario should use 7 articles, the top 25 % scenario should use 7 articles, and the top 50 % should use 5 articles to minimize prediction errors. A comparative analysis between the decision thresholds provided by the Youden index which take consequences into consideration and a method commonly used in evaluative bibliometrics which do not take consequences into consideration when determining decision thresholds, indicated that differences are trivial for the top 25 and the 50 % groups. However, a statistically significant difference between the methods was found for the top 10 % group. Information on early career collaboration and publication strategies did not add any prediction value to the bibliometric indicator publication rate in any of the models. The key contributions of this research is the focus on consequences in terms of prediction errors and the notion of transforming uncertainty into risk when we are choosing decision thresholds in bibliometricly informed decision making. The significance of our results are discussed from the point of view of a science policy and management.

Influence of Strong versus Weak Fair Employment Policies and Applicant's Sex on Selection Decisions and Salary Recommendations in a Management Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Benson; Mericle, Mary F.

1979-01-01

Strong and weak policies on fair employment were equally effective in counteracting sex bias in selection decisions; however, lower starting salaries were recommended for females compared to males in the strong fair employment policy condition. (Author/IRT)

Comparing and Deciding: A Historical Note on Education Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magalhães, Justino

2013-01-01

This article provides a "lineage" of decisions related to education policy which takes comparison as its motive, knowledge and method. A conceptual chain of world system, internationalization, convergence in education and globalization is briefly outlined. The paper examines decision-making in education policy according to agreement,…

Real-time data for estimating a forward-looking interest rate rule of the ECB.

PubMed

Bletzinger, Tilman; Wieland, Volker

2017-12-01

The purpose of the data presented in this article is to use it in ex post estimations of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB), as it is done by Bletzinger and Wieland (2017) [1]. The data is of quarterly frequency from 1999 Q1 until 2013 Q2 and consists of the ECB's policy rate, inflation rate, real output growth and potential output growth in the euro area. To account for forward-looking decision making in the interest rate rule, the data consists of expectations about future inflation and output dynamics. While potential output is constructed based on data from the European Commission's annual macro-economic database, inflation and real output growth are taken from two different sources both provided by the ECB: the Survey of Professional Forecasters and projections made by ECB staff. Careful attention was given to the publication date of the collected data to ensure a real-time dataset only consisting of information which was available to the decision makers at the time of the decision.

Multi-criteria decision analysis of breast cancer control in low- and middle- income countries: development of a rating tool for policy makers.

PubMed

Venhorst, Kristie; Zelle, Sten G; Tromp, Noor; Lauer, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a rating tool for policy makers to prioritize breast cancer interventions in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), based on a simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The definition and identification of criteria play a key role in MCDA, and our rating tool could be used as part of a broader priority setting exercise in a local setting. This tool may contribute to a more transparent priority-setting process and fairer decision-making in future breast cancer policy development. First, an expert panel (n = 5) discussed key considerations for tool development. A literature review followed to inventory all relevant criteria and construct an initial set of criteria. A Delphi study was then performed and questionnaires used to discuss a final list of criteria with clear definitions and potential scoring scales. For this Delphi study, multiple breast cancer policy and priority-setting experts from different LMICs were selected and invited by the World Health Organization. Fifteen international experts participated in all three Delphi rounds to assess and evaluate each criterion. This study resulted in a preliminary rating tool for assessing breast cancer interventions in LMICs. The tool consists of 10 carefully crafted criteria (effectiveness, quality of the evidence, magnitude of individual health impact, acceptability, cost-effectiveness, technical complexity, affordability, safety, geographical coverage, and accessibility), with clear definitions and potential scoring scales. This study describes the development of a rating tool to assess breast cancer interventions in LMICs. Our tool can offer supporting knowledge for the use or development of rating tools as part of a broader (MCDA based) priority setting exercise in local settings. Further steps for improving the tool are proposed and should lead to its useful adoption in LMICs.

Problems, Prescriptions and Potential in Actionable Climate Change Science - A Case Study from California Coastal Marsh Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, G. M.; Ambrose, R. F.; Thorne, K.; Takekawa, J.; Brown, L. N.; Fejtek, S.; Gold, M.; Rosencranz, J.

2015-12-01

Frustrations regarding the provision of actionable science extend to both producers and consumers. Scientists decry the lack of application of their research in shaping policy and practices while decision makers bemoan the lack of applicability of scientific research to the specific problems at hand or its narrow focus relative to the plethora of engineering, economic and social considerations that they must also consider. Incorporating climate change adds additional complexity due to uncertainties in estimating many facets of future climate, the inherent variability of climate and the decadal scales over which significant changes will develop. Recently a set of guidelines for successful science-policy interaction was derived from the analysis of transboundary water management. These are; 1 recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into the decision-making processes, 2 early establishment of conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among participants, 3 understanding that science-policy interactions are enhanced through greater collaboration and social or group-learning processes, 4 accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes, and 5 engaging boundary organizations and informal networks as well as formal stakeholders. Here we present as a case study research on California coastal marshes, climate change and sea-level that is being conducted by university and USGS scientists under the auspices of the Southwest Climate Science Center. We also present research needs identified by a seperate analysis of best practices for coastal marsh restoration in the face of climate change that was conducted in extensive consultation with planners and managers. The initial communication, scientific research and outreach-dissemination of the marsh scientfic study are outlined and compared to best practices needs identified by planners and the science-policy guidelines outlined above. Matches, mismatches, early-stage evidence of applicability and potential improvements of program development and design are considered.

Food and nutrition labelling in Thailand: a long march from subsistence producers to international traders

PubMed Central

Rimpeekool, Wimalin; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Banwell, Cathy; Kirk, Martyn; Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Sleigh, Adrian

2015-01-01

This paper reviews the evolution of Thai food and nutrition label policies and Thailand’s international role relating to food product safety and standards. The historical record has been interpreted to identify future trends and challenges related to food labelling. These challenges are arising in Thailand and many similar emerging economies. Thailand has a good reputation in world food markets and is now becoming a global leader in food production and export. It has become deeply involved with regulations and standards applied by World Trade Organization and Codex Alimentarius while serving its own population with a safe and secure food supply. For consumers considering Thai food products, food labels can provide useful nutrition information and help build trust. Thais began a century ago with policies and laws to enhance food safety and to protect Thai consumers. During the lengthy journey from national to global standards Thai food labels have evolved and now contribute to international food labelling policies. This contribution comes from the perspective of a leading middle income south-east Asian food producer now trading with high income countries around the world. The story of that journey – a case study for many other countries in a similar situation – has not previously been told. This article provides information for policy makers dealing with food labelling, embedding trends and tensions for one middle income food exporter in a long history. Information captured here should be helpful for other middle income countries, especially those with limited records. This strategic knowledge will enable better decisions for future policies. PMID:26538793

Shared Decision Making in the Emergency Department: Development of a Policy-Relevant Patient-Centered Research Agenda

PubMed Central

Grudzen, Corita R.; Anderson, Jana R.; Carpenter, Christopher R.; Hess, Erik P.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY SDM in emergency medicine has the potential to improve the quality, safety, and outcomes of ED patients. Given that the ED is the gateway to care for patients with a variety of illnesses and injuries, SDM in the ED is relevant to numerous healthcare disciplines. We conducted a patient-centered one-day conference to define and develop a high-priority, timely research agenda. Participants included researchers, patients, stakeholder organizations, and content experts across many areas of medicine, health policy agencies, and federal and foundation funding organizations. The results of this conference published in this issue of Academic Emergency Medicine will provide an essential summary of the future research priorities for SDM to increase quality of care and patient-centered outcomes. PMID:27396583

Research on Anaerobic Digestion: Optimization and Scalability of Mixed High-strength Food Processing Wastes for Renewable Biogas Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Zhongtang; Hitzhusen, Fredrick

2012-12-27

This research project developed and improved anaerobic digestion technologies, created a comprehensive Inventory of Ohio Biomass and a database of microorganisms of anaerobic digesters, and advanced knowledge and understanding of the underpinning microbiology of the anaerobic digestion process. The results and finding of this research project may be useful for future development and implementation of anaerobic digesters, especially at livestock farms. Policy makers and investors may also find the information on the biomass availability in Ohio and valuation of energy projects useful in policy making and making of investment decisions. The public may benefit from the information on biogas asmore » an energy source and the potential impact of anaerobic digester projects on their neighborhoods.« less

A prospective multiple case study of the impact of emerging scientific evidence on established colorectal cancer screening programs: a study protocol.

PubMed

Geddie, Hannah; Dobrow, Mark J; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Rabeneck, Linda

2012-06-01

Health-policy decision making is a complex and dynamic process, for which strong evidentiary support is required. This includes scientifically produced research, as well as information that relates to the context in which the decision takes place. Unlike scientific evidence, this "contextual evidence" is highly variable and often includes information that is not scientifically produced, drawn from sources such as political judgement, program management experience and knowledge, or public values. As the policy decision-making process is variable and difficult to evaluate, it is often unclear how this heterogeneous evidence is identified and incorporated into "evidence-based policy" decisions. Population-based colorectal cancer screening poses an ideal context in which to examine these issues. In Canada, colorectal cancer screening programs have been established in several provinces over the past five years, based on the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) or the fecal immunochemical test. However, as these programs develop, new scientific evidence for screening continues to emerge. Recently published randomized controlled trials suggest that the use of flexible sigmoidoscopy for population-based screening may pose a greater reduction in mortality than the FOBT. This raises the important question of how policy makers will address this evidence, given that screening programs are being established or are already in place. This study will examine these issues prospectively and will focus on how policy makers monitor emerging scientific evidence and how both scientific and contextual evidence are identified and applied for decisions about health system improvement. This study will employ a prospective multiple case study design, involving participants from Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Quebec. In each province, data will be collected via document analysis and key informant interviews. Documents will include policy briefs, reports, meeting minutes, media releases, and correspondence. Interviews will be conducted in person with senior administrative leaders, government officials, screening experts, and high-level cancer system stakeholders. The proposed study comprises the third and final phase of an Emerging Team grant to address the challenges of health-policy decision making and colorectal cancer screening decisions in Canada. This study will contribute a unique prospective look at how policy makers address new, emerging scientific evidence in several different policy environments and at different stages of program planning and implementation. Findings will provide important insight into the various approaches that are or should be used to monitor emerging evidence, the relative importance of scientific versus contextual evidence for decision making, and the tools and processes that may be important to support challenging health-policy decisions.

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

PubMed

Mutero, Clifford M; Kramer, Randall A; Paul, Christopher; Lesser, Adriane; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kiptui, Rebecca; Kabatereine, Narcis; Ameneshewa, Birkinesh

2014-08-08

Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST). Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate. Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides. Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

Informed public choices for low-carbon electricity portfolios using a computer decision tool.

PubMed

Mayer, Lauren A Fleishman; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Morgan, M Granger

2014-04-01

Reducing CO2 emissions from the electricity sector will likely require policies that encourage the widespread deployment of a diverse mix of low-carbon electricity generation technologies. Public discourse informs such policies. To make informed decisions and to productively engage in public discourse, citizens need to understand the trade-offs between electricity technologies proposed for widespread deployment. Building on previous paper-and-pencil studies, we developed a computer tool that aimed to help nonexperts make informed decisions about the challenges faced in achieving a low-carbon energy future. We report on an initial usability study of this interactive computer tool. After providing participants with comparative and balanced information about 10 electricity technologies, we asked them to design a low-carbon electricity portfolio. Participants used the interactive computer tool, which constrained portfolio designs to be realistic and yield low CO2 emissions. As they changed their portfolios, the tool updated information about projected CO2 emissions, electricity costs, and specific environmental impacts. As in the previous paper-and-pencil studies, most participants designed diverse portfolios that included energy efficiency, nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, natural gas, and wind. Our results suggest that participants understood the tool and used it consistently. The tool may be downloaded from http://cedmcenter.org/tools-for-cedm/informing-the-public-about-low-carbon-technologies/ .

Coordination of a supply chain with consumer return under vendor-managed consignment inventory and stochastic demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhihui; Chen, Dongyan; Yu, Hui

2016-07-01

In this paper, the problem of the coordination policy is investigated for vendor-managed consignment inventory supply chain subject to consumer return. Here, the market demand is assumed to be affected by promotional effort and consumer return policy. The optimal consignment inventory and the optimal promotional effort level are proposed under the decentralized and centralized decisions. Based on the optimal decision conditions, the markdown allowance-promotional cost-sharing contract is investigated to coordinate the supply chain. Subsequently, the comparison between the two extreme policies shows that full-refund policy dominates the no-return policy when the returning cost and the positive effect of return policy are satisfied certain conditions. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the impacts of consumer return policy on the coordination contract and optimal profit as well as the effectiveness of the proposed supply chain decision.

Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

2012-01-01

This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

Medicare long-term CPAP coverage policy: a cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Billings, Martha E; Kapur, Vishesh K

2013-10-15

CPAP is an effective treatment for OSA that may reduce health care utilization and costs. Medicare currently reimburses the costs of long-term CPAP therapy only if the patient is adherent during a 90-day trial. If not, Medicare requires a repeat polysomnogram (PSG) and another trial which seems empirically not cost-effective. We modeled the cost-effectiveness of current Medicare policy compared to an alternative policy (clinic-only) without the adherence criterion and repeat PSG. Cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analysis. U.S. Medicare Population. N/A. N/A. We created a decision tree modeling (1) clinic only follow-up vs. (2) current Medicare policy. Costs were assigned based on Medicare reimbursement rates in 2012. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test our assumptions. We estimated cumulative costs, overall adherence, and QALY gained for a 5-year time horizon from the perspective of Medicare as the payer. Current Medicare policy is more costly than the clinic-only policy but has higher net adherence and improved utility. Current Medicare policy compared to clinic-only policy costs $30,544 more per QALY. Current CMS policy promotes early identification of those more likely to adhere to CPAP therapy by requiring strict adherence standards. The policy effect is to deny coverage to those unlikely to use CPAP long-term and prevent wasted resources. Future studies are needed to measure long-term adherence in an elderly population with and without current adherence requirements to verify the cost-effectiveness of a policy change.

New Ways of Delivering Marine Scientific Evidence for Policy Needs in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorrington, T.

2016-12-01

The UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) is responsible for safeguarding the natural environment, supporting a world-leading food and farming industry, and sustaining a thriving rural economy. This includes the marine environment which makes a significant contribution to the economy of the UK through fisheries, aquaculture, transport, leisure and recreation, energy (including renewable), coastal tourism, and naval defence. The overall vision for the Defra marine programme is to therefore achieve clean, healthy, safe, productive and biologically diverse oceans and seas. In order to attain this it is essential that the decisions that government makes can be justified and that these decisions use the best available evidence and allow for any uncertainty. However, reductions across the budgets of departments such as Defra means that new ways of delivering evidence for policy needs must be sought. To do this we must consider marine monitoring efficiencies including the use of novel technologies, more integrated monitoring programmes, and greater collaboration with the research councils, industry, and academia. We must also seek to leverage other sources of funding from the European Union and other international partners. This presentation will address the main policy drivers (e.g. EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive) and future needs of the marine programme, the Defra Evidence Action Plan (EAP), and how we plan to use new avenues of gaining high quality marine scientific evidence in an era of declining budgets.

New Ways of Delivering Marine Scientific Evidence for Policy Needs in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorrington, T.

2016-02-01

The UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) is responsible for safeguarding the natural environment, supporting a world-leading food and farming industry, and sustaining a thriving rural economy. This includes the marine environment which makes a significant contribution to the economy of the UK through fisheries, aquaculture, transport, leisure and recreation, energy (including renewable), coastal tourism, and naval defence. The overall vision for the Defra marine programme is to therefore achieve clean, healthy, safe, productive and biologically diverse oceans and seas. In order to attain this it is essential that the decisions that government makes can be justified and that these decisions use the best available evidence and allow for any uncertainty. However, reductions across the budgets of departments such as Defra means that new ways of delivering evidence for policy needs must be sought. To do this we must consider marine monitoring efficiencies including the use of novel technologies, more integrated monitoring programmes, and greater collaboration with the research councils, industry, and academia. We must also seek to leverage other sources of funding from the European Union and other international partners. This presentation will address the main policy drivers (e.g. EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive) and future needs of the marine programme, the Defra Evidence Action Plan (EAP), and how we plan to use new avenues of gaining high quality marine scientific evidence in an era of declining budgets.

A decision support system to find the best water allocation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin in future scenarios of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Vasto-Terrientes, L.; Kumar, V.; Chao, T.-C.; Valls, A.

2016-03-01

Global change refers to climate changes, but also demographic, technological and economic changes. Predicted water scarcity will be critical in the coastal Mediterranean region, especially for provision to mid-sized and large-sized cities. This paper studies the case of the city of Tarragona, located at the Mediterranean area of north-eastern Spain (Catalonia). Several scenarios have been constructed to evaluate different sectorial water allocation policies to mitigate the water scarcity induced by global change. Future water supply and demand predictions have been made for three time spans. The decision support system presented is based on the outranking model, which constructs a partial pre-order based on pairwise preference relations among all the possible actions. The system analyses a hierarchical structure of criteria, including environmental and economic criteria. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources, inter-basin water transfer and sectorial demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors. Results indicate that the most appropriate water allocation strategies depend on the severity of the global change effects.

Using health technology assessment to identify gaps in evidence and inform study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Turkelson, Charles

2012-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is primarily used as a tool to ensure that clinical and policy decisions are made with the benefit of a systematic analysis of all completed research. This article describes the progress and potential for HTA reports to improve the quality and relevance of future research and to better serve the information needs of patients, clinicians, payers, and other decision makers. We conducted a review of the current published literature and working papers describing past, ongoing, and future initiatives that rely on HTA reports to identify gaps in evidence and improve the design of future research. Although still in a developmental stage, significant progress is under way to improve methods for using HTA reports for the systematic identification of research gaps, prioritization of future research, and improvement of study designs. Several well-defined frameworks have been developed to assist those who produce HTA to become more effective in these additional domains of work. A recurring element of this work is the importance of meaningfully involving stakeholders in the process of defining future research needs and designing studies to address them. Patients, clinicians, and payers are important audiences for completed research and are now recognized as serving an important role in determining what future research is needed. There are substantial opportunities to improve the quality, relevance, and efficiency of clinical research. Recent efforts are beginning to demonstrate the potential to build on the work invested in developing HTA reports to provide a roadmap toward these objectives.

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

Exploring evidence-policy linkages in health research plans: A case study from six countries

PubMed Central

Syed, Shamsuzzoha B; Hyder, Adnan A; Bloom, Gerald; Sundaram, Sandhya; Bhuiya, Abbas; Zhenzhong, Zhang; Kanjilal, Barun; Oladepo, Oladimeji; Pariyo, George; Peters, David H

2008-01-01

The complex evidence-policy interface in low and middle income country settings is receiving increasing attention. Future Health Systems (FHS): Innovations for Equity, is a research consortium conducting health systems explorations in six Asian and African countries: Bangladesh, India, China, Afghanistan, Uganda, and Nigeria. The cross-country research consortium provides a unique opportunity to explore the research-policy interface. Three key activities were undertaken during the initial phase of this five-year project. First, key considerations in strengthening evidence-policy linkages in health system research were developed by FHS researchers through workshops and electronic communications. Four key considerations in strengthening evidence-policy linkages are postulated: development context; research characteristics; decision-making processes; and stakeholder engagement. Second, these four considerations were applied to research proposals in each of the six countries to highlight features in the research plans that potentially strengthen the research-policy interface and opportunities for improvement. Finally, the utility of the approach for setting research priorities in health policy and systems research was reflected upon. These three activities yielded interesting findings. First, developmental consideration with four dimensions – poverty, vulnerabilities, capabilities, and health shocks – provides an entry point in examining research-policy interfaces in the six settings. Second, research plans focused upon on the ground realities in specific countries strengthens the interface. Third, focusing on research prioritized by decision-makers, within a politicized health arena, enhances chances of research influencing action. Lastly, early and continued engagement of multiple stakeholders, from local to national levels, is conducive to enhanced communication at the interface. The approach described has four main utilities: first, systematic analyses of research proposals using key considerations ensure such issues are incorporated into research proposals; second, the exact meaning, significance, and inter-relatedness of these considerations can be explored within the research itself; third, cross-country learning can be enhanced; and finally, translation of evidence into action may be facilitated. Health systems research proposals in low and middle income countries should include reflection on transferring research findings into policy. Such deliberations may be informed by employing the four key considerations suggested in this paper in analyzing research proposals. PMID:18331651

How should treatment costs impact on physician's decisions?

PubMed

Neymark, N

1999-01-01

This article first discusses at what level of clinical decision making cost considerations may be most pertinent and important. It is argued that cost assessments will be of most relevance and value at an intermediate level of clinical decision making i.e. at a level where so-called policy decisions are made. These are decisions such as which drugs to include in a hospital formulary or which standard treatment 'protocols' to choose for particular types of patients. The personal encounter between individual patients and physicians will take place within the framework of available treatment options determined by these policy decisions, which must necessarily be based on a prior assessment of the expected costs and benefits of treatments. The article goes on to give a brief introduction to the various methods of economic evaluation that have been developed in order to provide the decision makers with the means to make policy decisions on the basis of the most reliable and pertinent information possible.

The opioid crisis: past, present and future policy climate in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Morin, Kristen A; Eibl, Joseph K; Franklyn, Alexandra M; Marsh, David C

2017-11-02

Addressing opioid use disorder has become a priority in Ontario, Canada, because of its high economic, social and health burden. There continues to be stigma and criticism relating to opioid use disorder and treatment options. The result has been unsystematic, partial, reactive policies and programs developed based on divergent points of view. The aim of this manuscript is to describe how past and present understandings, narratives, ideologies and discourse of opioid use, have impacted policies over the course of the growing opioid crisis. Assessing the impact of policy is complex. It involves consideration of conceptual issues of what impacts policy change. In this manuscript we argue that the development of polices and initiatives regarding opioids, opioid use disorder and opioid agonist treatment in the last decade, have been more strongly associated with the evolution of ideas, narratives and discourses rather than research relating to opioids. We formulate our argument using a framework by Sumner, Crichton, Theobald, Zulu, and Parkhurs. We use examples from the Canadian context to outline our argument such as: the anti- drug legislation from the Canadian Federal Conservative government in 2007; the removal of OxyContin™ from the drug formulary in 2012; the rapid expansion of opioid agonist treatment beginning in the early 2000s, the unilateral decision made regarding fee cuts for physicians providing opioid agonist treatment in 2015; and the most recent implementation of a narcotics monitoring system, which are all closely linked with the shifts in public opinion and discourse at the time of which these policies and programs are implemented. We conclude with recommendations to consider a multifactorial response using evidence and stakeholder engagement to address the opioid crisis, rather than a reactive policy approach. We suggest that researchers have an important role in shaping future policy by reframing ideas through knowledge translation, formation of values, creation of new knowledge and adding to the quality of public discourse and debate.

Where the Rubber Hits the Road: The Politics and Science of Climate Change in Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M.

2004-12-01

Scientific understanding of the magnitude and rate of global and regional climate change is being actively communicated to Capitol Hill, however this information is being framed within the political debate that has brought climate change policy in the U.S. to a practical standstill. Efforts by scientists to communicate to Congress advances in the understanding of climate change have been obscured by policy-makers, lobbyists and some scientists themselves, into two polarized camps: those that who claim that current climate change is insignificant and/or of non-anthropogenic origin, and those who predict irreversible climate change in the near future and advocate a precautionary approach to anthropogenic contributions. As a science policy advisor to a Member of Congress active in the climate policy debate over the past year, I have observed firsthand most of the scientific information on climate change presented to Congress being partitioned into these camps. The political debate surrounding climate change policy has centered on the policymakers' understanding of scientific uncertainty. Communication by researchers of the definition of risk and uncertainty in climate science, in the language and framework of the legislative debate, is of utmost importance in order for policymakers to effectively understand and utilize science in the decision-making process. A comparison with the recent white paper on climate change policy developed by the UK Science and Technology council and currently adopted by UK policymakers demonstrates the importance of a general public understanding of the existing magnitude of climate change, uncertainties in the rate of future climate variability and its associated economic and social costs. Communication of research results on climate change has been most effective in the policy debate when framed within the context of economic or security risks in the short term. Other effective methods include communicating local and regional climate scenarios and associated probabilities to individual policy-makers, as is currently being utilized to promote sponsorship of the Climate Stewardship Act in Congress.

The increasing importance of a continence nurse specialist to improve outcomes and save costs of urinary incontinence care: an analysis of future policy scenarios.

PubMed

Franken, Margreet G; Corro Ramos, Isaac; Los, Jeanine; Al, Maiwenn J

2018-02-17

In an ageing population, it is inevitable to improve the management of care for community-dwelling elderly with incontinence. A previous study showed that implementation of the Optimum Continence Service Specification (OCSS) for urinary incontinence in community-dwelling elderly with four or more chronic diseases results in a reduction of urinary incontinence, an improved quality of life, and lower healthcare and lower societal costs. The aim of this study was to explore future consequences of the OCSS strategy of various healthcare policy scenarios in an ageing population. We adapted a previously developed decision analytical model in which the OCSS new care strategy was operationalised as the appointment of a continence nurse specialist located within the general practice in The Netherlands. We used a societal perspective including healthcare costs (healthcare providers, treatment costs, insured containment products, insured home care), and societal costs (informal caregiving, containment products paid out-of-pocket, travelling expenses, home care paid out-of-pocket). All outcomes were computed over a three-year time period using two different base years (2014 and 2030). Settings for future policy scenarios were based on desk-research and expert opinion. Our results show that implementation of the OSCC new care strategy for urinary incontinence would yield large health gains in community dwelling elderly (2030: 2592-2618 QALYs gained) and large cost-savings in The Netherlands (2030: health care perspective: €32.4 Million - €72.5 Million; societal perspective: €182.0 Million - €250.6 Million). Savings can be generated in different categories which depends on healthcare policy. The uncertainty analyses and extreme case scenarios showed the robustness of the results. Implementation of the OCSS new care strategy for urinary incontinence results in an improvement in the quality of life of community-dwelling elderly, a reduction of the costs for payers and affected elderly, and a reduction in time invested by carers. Various realistic policy scenarios even forecast larger health gains and cost-savings in the future. More importantly, the longer the implementation is postponed the larger the savings foregone. The future organisation of healthcare affects the category in which the greatest savings will be generated.

Global nonfuel mineral exploration trends 2001-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karl, Nick; Wilburn, David R.

2017-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) is to collect, analyze and disseminate information on the domestic and international supply of and demand for minerals and mineral materials essential to the U.S. economy and national security. Understanding mineral exploration activities and trends assists government policy makers, minerals industry decision makers and research entities in identifying where future sources of mineral supply are likely to be discovered, the amount and type of these resources and factors that may affect exploration and development.