Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Understanding past, contemporary, and future dynamics of plants, populations, and communities using Sonoran Desert winter annuals.

PubMed

Huxman, Travis E; Kimball, Sarah; Angert, Amy L; Gremer, Jennifer R; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Venable, D Lawrence

2013-07-01

Global change requires plant ecologists to predict future states of biological diversity to aid the management of natural communities, thus introducing a number of significant challenges. One major challenge is considering how the many interacting features of biological systems, including ecophysiological processes, plant life histories, and species interactions, relate to performance in the face of a changing environment. We have employed a functional trait approach to understand the individual, population, and community dynamics of a model system of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We have used a comprehensive approach that connects physiological ecology and comparative biology to population and community dynamics, while emphasizing both ecological and evolutionary processes. This approach has led to a fairly robust understanding of past and contemporary dynamics in response to changes in climate. In this community, there is striking variation in physiological and demographic responses to both precipitation and temperature that is described by a trade-off between water-use efficiency (WUE) and relative growth rate (RGR). This community-wide trade-off predicts both the demographic and life history variation that contribute to species coexistence. Our framework has provided a mechanistic explanation to the recent warming, drying, and climate variability that has driven a surprising shift in these communities: cold-adapted species with more buffered population dynamics have increased in relative abundance. These types of comprehensive approaches that acknowledge the hierarchical nature of biology may be especially useful in aiding prediction. The emerging, novel and nonstationary climate constrains our use of simplistic statistical representations of past plant behavior in predicting the future, without understanding the mechanistic basis of change.

Single-trial dynamics of motor cortex and their applications to brain-machine interfaces

PubMed Central

Kao, Jonathan C.; Nuyujukian, Paul; Ryu, Stephen I.; Churchland, Mark M.; Cunningham, John P.; Shenoy, Krishna V.

2015-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that neural population responses have their own internal drive, or dynamics, that describe how the neural population evolves through time. An important prediction of neural dynamical models is that previously observed neural activity is informative of noisy yet-to-be-observed activity on single-trials, and may thus have a denoising effect. To investigate this prediction, we built and characterized dynamical models of single-trial motor cortical activity. We find these models capture salient dynamical features of the neural population and are informative of future neural activity on single trials. To assess how neural dynamics may beneficially denoise single-trial neural activity, we incorporate neural dynamics into a brain–machine interface (BMI). In online experiments, we find that a neural dynamical BMI achieves substantially higher performance than its non-dynamical counterpart. These results provide evidence that neural dynamics beneficially inform the temporal evolution of neural activity on single trials and may directly impact the performance of BMIs. PMID:26220660

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Methods Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. Results A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. Conclusions Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities. PMID:22877154

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. Methods We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. Results The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Conclusions Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. PMID:25733558

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions (proceedings)

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-01-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.

PubMed

Hock, Karlo; Wolff, Nicholas H; Beeden, Roger; Hoey, Jessica; Condie, Scott A; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Possingham, Hugh P; Mumby, Peter J

2016-08-01

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-11-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.

Experimental evolution and the dynamics of adaptation and genome evolution in microbial populations.

PubMed

Lenski, Richard E

2017-10-01

Evolution is an on-going process, and it can be studied experimentally in organisms with rapid generations. My team has maintained 12 populations of Escherichia coli in a simple laboratory environment for >25 years and 60 000 generations. We have quantified the dynamics of adaptation by natural selection, seen some of the populations diverge into stably coexisting ecotypes, described changes in the bacteria's mutation rate, observed the new ability to exploit a previously untapped carbon source, characterized the dynamics of genome evolution and used parallel evolution to identify the genetic targets of selection. I discuss what the future might hold for this particular experiment, briefly highlight some other microbial evolution experiments and suggest how the fields of experimental evolution and microbial ecology might intersect going forward.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C

2004-06-22

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

Indigenous migration dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a longitudinal and hierarchical analysis.

PubMed

Davis, Jason; Sellers, Samuel; Gray, Clark; Bilsborrow, Richard

2017-01-01

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas.

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources.

PubMed

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J

2015-03-01

Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Visible and infrared investigations of planet-crossing asteroids and outer solar system objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tholen, David J.

1991-01-01

The project is supporting lightcurve photometry, colorimetry, thermal radiometry, and astrometry of selected asteroids. Targets include the planet-crossing population, particularly Earth approachers, which are believed to be the immediate source of terrestrial meteorites, future spacecraft targets, and those objects in the outer belt, primarily the Hilda and Trojan populations, that are dynamically isolated from the main asteroid belt. Goals include the determination of population statistics for the planet-crossing objects, the characterization of spacecraft targets to assist in encounter planning and subsequent interpretation of the data, a comparison of the collisional evolution of dynamically isolated Hilda and Trojan populations with the main belt, and the determination of the mechanism driving the activity of the distant object 2060 Chiron.

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

2015-01-01

Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future. With the term “equation-free” in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing “clarity and precision into conjecture” (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Bioeconomic synergy between tactics for insect eradication in the presence of Allee effects

Treesearch

Julie C. ​Blackwood; Ludek Berec; Takehiko Yamanaka; Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell; Alan Hastings; Andrew M. Liebhold

2012-01-01

Preventing the establishment of invading pest species can be beneficial with respect to averting future environmental and economic impacts and also in preventing the accumulation of control costs. Allee effects play an important role in the dynamics of newly established, low-density populations by driving small populations into self-extinction, making Allee effects...

Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Jian; Fu, Joshua S.; Huang, Kan

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12 × 12km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry models under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in continental US will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase inmore » the Western US. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) decreasing the future baseline incidence rate but increasing the future population. For PM2.5, the entire continental US presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both two scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the effect of the all causes mortality is much larger than for specific causes. This assessment is the result of the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets. The uncertainty range of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of beta parameter.« less

Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

2013-01-01

Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape.

PubMed

Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W

2017-07-01

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the "edge of chaos" while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection-a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies.

Viral control of phytoplankton populations--a review.

PubMed

Brussaard, Corina P D

2004-01-01

Phytoplankton population dynamics are the result of imbalances between reproduction and losses. Losses include grazing, sinking, and natural mortality. As the importance of microbes in aquatic ecology has been recognized, so has the potential significance of viruses as mortality agents for phytoplankton. The field of algal virus ecology is steadily changing and advancing as new viruses are isolated and new methods are developed for quantifying the impact of viruses on phytoplankton dynamics and diversity. With this development, evidence is accumulating that viruses can control phytoplankton dynamics through reduction of host populations, or by preventing algal host populations from reaching high levels. The identification of highly specific host ranges of viruses is changing our understanding of population dynamics. Viral-mediated mortality may not only affect algal species succession, but may also affect intraspecies succession. Through cellular lysis, viruses indirectly affect the fluxes of energy, nutrients, and organic matter, especially during algal bloom events when biomass is high. Although the importance of viruses is presently recognized, it is apparent that many aspects of viral-mediated mortality of phytoplankton are still poorly understood. It is imperative that future research addresses the mechanisms that regulate virus infectivity, host resistance, genotype richness, abundance, and the fate of viruses over time and space.

Indigenous migration dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a longitudinal and hierarchical analysis

PubMed Central

Davis, Jason; Sellers, Samuel; Gray, Clark; Bilsborrow, Richard

2017-01-01

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas. PMID:29129939

Hydration dynamics promote bacterial coexistence on rough surfaces

PubMed Central

Wang, Gang; Or, Dani

2013-01-01

Identification of mechanisms that promote and maintain the immense microbial diversity found in soil is a central challenge for contemporary microbial ecology. Quantitative tools for systematic integration of complex biophysical and trophic processes at spatial scales, relevant for individual cell interactions, are essential for making progress. We report a modeling study of competing bacterial populations cohabiting soil surfaces subjected to highly dynamic hydration conditions. The model explicitly tracks growth, motion and life histories of individual bacterial cells on surfaces spanning dynamic aqueous networks that shape heterogeneous nutrient fields. The range of hydration conditions that confer physical advantages for rapidly growing species and support competitive exclusion is surprisingly narrow. The rapid fragmentation of soil aqueous phase under most natural conditions suppresses bacterial growth and cell dispersion, thereby balancing conditions experienced by competing populations with diverse physiological traits. In addition, hydration fluctuations intensify localized interactions that promote coexistence through disproportional effects within densely populated regions during dry periods. Consequently, bacterial population dynamics is affected well beyond responses predicted from equivalent and uniform hydration conditions. New insights on hydration dynamics could be considered in future designs of soil bioremediation activities, affect longevity of dry food products, and advance basic understanding of bacterial diversity dynamics and its role in global biogeochemical cycles. PMID:23051694

Big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla population dynamics and implications for sustainable management

Treesearch

James Grogan; R. Matthew Landis; Christopher M. Free; Mark D. Schulze; Marco Lentini; Mark S. Ashton

2014-01-01

Summary 1. The impacts of selective harvesting in tropical forests on population recovery and future timber yields by high-value species remain largely unknown for lack of demographic data spanning all phases of life history, from seed to senescence. In this study, we use an individual- based model parameterized using 15 years of annual census data to simulate...

Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adam Duarte,; Hatfield, Jeffrey; Todd M. Swannack,; Michael R. J. Forstner,; M. Clay Green,; Floyd W. Weckerly,

2015-01-01

Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected areas, and a standard operating procedure to identify areas of priority for habitat conservation efforts. Therefore, we suggest future efforts focus on these aspects of golden-cheeked warbler conservation and ecology.

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

2011-01-01

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

2011-04-27

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Role of conformational dynamics in the evolution of novel enzyme function.

PubMed

Maria-Solano, Miguel A; Serrano-Hervás, Eila; Romero-Rivera, Adrian; Iglesias-Fernández, Javier; Osuna, Sílvia

2018-05-21

The free energy landscape concept that describes enzymes as an ensemble of differently populated conformational sub-states in dynamic equilibrium is key for evaluating enzyme activity, enantioselectivity, and specificity. Mutations introduced in the enzyme sequence can alter the populations of the pre-existing conformational states, thus strongly modifying the enzyme ability to accommodate alternative substrates, revert its enantiopreferences, and even increase the activity for some residual promiscuous reactions. In this feature article, we present an overview of the current experimental and computational strategies to explore the conformational free energy landscape of enzymes. We provide a series of recent publications that highlight the key role of conformational dynamics for the enzyme evolution towards new functions and substrates, and provide some perspectives on how conformational dynamism should be considered in future computational enzyme design protocols.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Coherent Dynamics of Open Quantum System in the Presence of Majorana Fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assuncao, Maryzaura O.; Diniz, Ginetom S.; Vernek, Edson; Souza, Fabricio M.

In recent years the research on quantum coherent dynamics of open systems has attracted great attention due to its relevance for future implementation of quantum computers. In the present study we apply the Kadanoff-Baym formalism to simulate the population dynamics of a double-dot molecular system attached to both a superconductor and fermionic reservoirs. We solve both analytically and numerically a set of coupled differential equations that account for crossed Andreev reflection (CAR), intramolecular hopping and tunneling. We pay particular attention on how Majorana bound states can affect the population dynamics of the molecule. We investigate on how initial state configuration affects the dynamics. For instance, if one dot is occupied and the other one is empty, the dynamics is dictated by the inter dot tunneling. On the other hand, for initially empty dots, the CAR dominates. We also investigate how the source and drain currents evolve in time. This work was supporte by FAPEMIG, CNPq and CAPES.

Analysis of the impact of trap-neuter-return programs on populations of feral cats.

PubMed

Foley, Patrick; Foley, Janet E; Levy, Julie K; Paik, Terry

2005-12-01

To evaluate 2 county trap-neuter-return (TNR) programs for feral cat population management via mathematical modeling. Theoretical population model. Feral cats assessed from 1992 to 2003 in San Diego County, California (n = 14,452), and from 1998 to 2004 in Alachua County, Florida (11,822). Data were analyzed with a mathematical Ricker model to describe population dynamics of the feral cats and modifications to the dynamics that occurred as a result of the TNR programs. In both counties, results of analyses did not indicate a consistent reduction in per capita growth, the population multiplier, or the proportion of female cats that were pregnant. Success of feral cat management programs that use TNR can be monitored with an easily collected set of data and statistical analyses facilitated by population modeling techniques. Results may be used to suggest possible future monitoring and modification of TNR programs, which could result in greater success controlling and reducing feral cat populations.

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the “edge of chaos” while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection—a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies. PMID:28678792

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning

PubMed Central

Dann, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity. PMID:27814352

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

PubMed

Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

2016-11-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

Argentine stem weevil ( Listronotus bonariensis, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in Canterbury, New Zealand dryland pasture.

PubMed

Goldson, S L; Barron, M C; Kean, J M; van Koten, C

2011-06-01

The Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis) was an economically important pest in New Zealand pastures until the release of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae. This contribution uses historical data to investigate the regulation of the pest populations prior to, and somewhat during, the establishment of this parasitoid in dryland Canterbury, New Zealand. Thus, a significant goal of this study is to provide an L. bonariensis population dynamics baseline for any future work that aims to analyse the full effects of M. hyperodae on the weevil, now that equilibrium with the weevil host has been reached.The population dynamics of L. bonariensis, based on a life-table approach, were investigated using data collected regularly for eight years from populations in Canterbury, New Zealand. The key factor affecting end-of-season L. bonariensis density was found to be variation in second generation fourth instar prepupal and pupal mortality. This may have been caused by arrested development and ongoing mortality resulting from the onset of cooler autumnal conditions.A compensatory response was found in recruitment to the second summer weevil generation, whereby the realised fecundity of the emergent first summer generation of weevils was found to be negatively related to the density of adult weevils per ryegrass tiller. This is the first time that this has been found via long-term population analysis of L. bonariensis, although indications of this have been found elsewhere in caging, pot and small plot experiments.In this study, the effect of the parasitoid biocontrol agent Microctonus hyperodae on L. bonariensis population dynamics was unclear, as the analysis covered a period when the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae was introduced and still establishing. It does, however, raise important questions for future analysis in terms of the interaction between parasitism and unrealised fecundity.The results in this contribution also highlighted regional differences. Overwintering mortality of adult weevils in Canterbury was constant between years, whilst earlier studies in the North Island Waikato region indicated this mortality was density dependent. In addition, the availability of tillers in endophyte-free ryegrass pastures in Canterbury had no influence on egg and early-instar larval survival, which contrasts with the finding from endophytic Waikato pastures.

Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

PubMed

Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Eccard, Jana A; Jacob, Daniela; Hempelmann, Nils; Jacob, Jens

2015-02-01

Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE CROSS DISCIPLINE ECOSYTEM MODELING AND ANALYSIS WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

The complexity of environmental problems we face now and in the future is ever increasing. Process linkages among air, land, surface and subsurface water require interdisciplinary modeling approaches. The dynamics of land use change spurred by population and economic growth, ...

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

The Further Evolution of Cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axelrod, Robert; Dion, Douglas

1988-12-01

Axelrod's model of the evolution of cooperation was based on the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Empirical work following this approach has helped establish the prevalence of cooperation based on reciprocity. Theoretical work has led to a deeper understanding of the role of other factors in the evolution of cooperation: the number of players, the range of possible choices, variation in the payoff structure, noise, the shadow of the future, population dynamics, and population structure.

Changes in Black-legged Tick Population in New England with Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Huber, M.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is one of the most frequently reported vector-borne diseases in the United States. In the Northeastern United States, vector transmission is maintained in a horizontal transmission cycle between the vector, the black-legged ticks, and the vertebrate reservoir hosts, which include white-tailed deer, rodents and other medium to large sized mammals. Predicting how vector populations change with future climate change is critical to understanding disease spread in the future, and for developing suitable regional adaptation strategies. For the United States, these predictions have mostly been made using regressions based on field and lab studies, or using spatial suitability studies. However, the relation between tick populations at various life-cycle stages and climate variables are complex, necessitating a mechanistic approach. In this study, we present a framework for driving a mechanistic tick population model with high-resolution regional climate modeling projections. The goal is to estimate changes in black-legged tick populations in New England for the 21st century. The tick population model used is based on the mechanistic approach of Ogden et al., (2005) developed for Canada. Dynamically downscaled climate projections at a 3-kms resolution using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) are used to drive the tick population model.

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Singh, Karandeep; Ahn, Chang-Won; Paik, Euihyun; Bae, Jang Won; Lee, Chun-Hee

2018-01-01

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change.

PubMed

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-05-23

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change

PubMed Central

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-01-01

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change. PMID:27210568

Population-Level Transcriptomic Responses of the Southern Ocean Salp Salpa thompsoni to Environment Variability of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucklin, A. C.; Batta Lona, P. G.; Maas, A. E.; O'Neill, R. J.; Wiebe, P. H.

2015-12-01

In response to the changing Antarctic climate, the Southern Ocean salp Salpa thompsoni has shown altered patterns of distribution and abundance that are anticipated to have profound impacts on pelagic food webs and ecosystem dynamics. The physiological and molecular processes that underlay ecological function and biogeographical distribution are key to understanding present-day dynamics and predicting future trajectories. This study examined transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression in relation to biological and physical oceanographic conditions in coastal, shelf and offshore waters of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region during austral spring and summer 2011. Based on field observations and collections, seasonal changes in the distribution and abundance of salps of different life stages were associated with differences in water mass structure of the WAP. Our observations are consistent with previous suggestions that bathymetry and currents in Bransfield Strait could generate a retentive cell for an overwintering population of S. thompsoni, which may generate the characteristic salp blooms found throughout the region later in summer. The statistical analysis of transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression revealed differences among salps collected in different seasons and from different habitats (i.e., coastal versus offshore) in the WAP. Gene expression patterns also clustered by station in austral spring - but not summer - collections, suggesting stronger heterogeneity of environmental conditions. During the summer, differentially expressed genes covered a wider range of functions, including those associated with stress responses. Future research using novel molecular transcriptomic / genomic characterization of S. thompsoni will allow more complete understanding of individual-, population-, and species-level responses to environmental variability and prediction of future dynamics of Southern Ocean food webs and ecosystems.

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Modeling Fecundity in Birds: Conceptual Overview, Current Models, and Considerations for Future Developments

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding fecundity is fundamental to understanding fitness, population dynamics, conservation, ecological risk, and management issues of birds. For all the efforts placed in measuring fecundity or its surrogates over the past century of avian research, it is still poorly me...

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE PAGES

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; ...

2016-10-24

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

2016-01-01

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Microevolutionary dynamics of a macroevolutionary key innovation in a Lepidopteran herbivore

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A molecular population genetics understanding is central to the study of ecological and evolutionary functional genomics. Population genetics identifies genetic variation and its distribution within and among populations, it reveals the demographic history of the populations studied, and can provide indirect insights into historical selection dynamics. Here we use this approach to examine the demographic and selective dynamics acting of a candidate gene involved in plant-insect interactions. Previous work documents the macroevolutionary and historical ecological importance of the nitrile-specifier protein (Nsp), which facilitated the host shift of Pieridae butterflies onto Brassicales host plants ~80 Myr ago. Results Here we assess the microevolutionary dynamics of the Nsp gene by studying the within and among-population variation at Nsp and reference genes in the butterfly Pieris rapae (Small Cabbage White). Nsp exhibits unexpectedly high amounts of amino acid polymorphism, unequally distributed across the gene. The vast majority of genetic variation exists within populations, with little to no genetic differentiation among four populations on two continents. A comparison of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions in 70 randomly chosen genes among P. rapae and its close relative Pieris brassicae (Large Cabbage White) finds Nsp to have a significantly relaxed functional constraint compared to housekeeping genes. We find strong evidence for a recent population expansion and no role for strong purifying or directional selection upon the Nsp gene. Conclusions The microevolutionary dynamics of the Nsp gene in P. rapae are dominated by recent population expansion and variation in functional constraint across the repeated domains of the Nsp gene. While the high amounts of amino acid diversity suggest there may be significant functional differences among allelic variants segregating within populations, indirect tests of selection could not conclusively identify a signature of historical selection. The importance of using this information for planning future studies of potential performance and fitness consequences of the observed variation is discussed. PMID:20181249

A method for the dynamic management of genetic variability in dairy cattle

PubMed Central

Colleau, Jean-Jacques; Moureaux, Sophie; Briend, Michèle; Bechu, Jérôme

2004-01-01

According to the general approach developed in this paper, dynamic management of genetic variability in selected populations of dairy cattle is carried out for three simultaneous purposes: procreation of young bulls to be further progeny-tested, use of service bulls already selected and approval of recently progeny-tested bulls for use. At each step, the objective is to minimize the average pairwise relationship coefficient in the future population born from programmed matings and the existing population. As a common constraint, the average estimated breeding value of the new population, for a selection goal including many important traits, is set to a desired value. For the procreation of young bulls, breeding costs are additionally constrained. Optimization is fully analytical and directly considers matings. Corresponding algorithms are presented in detail. The efficiency of these procedures was tested on the current Norman population. Comparisons between optimized and real matings, clearly showed that optimization would have saved substantial genetic variability without reducing short-term genetic gains. PMID:15231230

Species composition, community and population dynamics of two gallery forests from the Brazilian Cerrado domain

PubMed Central

Almado, Roosevelt P; Miazaki, Angela S; Diniz, Écio S; Moreira, Luis C B; Meira-Neto, João A.A.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background To understand the impacts of global changes on future community compositions, knowledge of community dynamics is of crucial importance. To improve our knowledge of community composition, biomass stock and maintenance of gallery forests in the Brazilian Cerrado, we provide two datasets from the 0.5 ha Corrego Fazendinha Gallery Forest Dynamics Plot and the Corrego Fundo Gallery Forest Dynamics Plot situated in the Bom Despacho region, Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil. New information We report diameter at breast height, basal area and height measurements of 3417 trees and treelets identified during three censuses in both areas. PMID:27660529

Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

2015-12-01

Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

DYNAMIC ORDER IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS FROM FISHER INFORMATION

EPA Science Inventory

At its core, sustainability asks whether the planet will persist into the indefinite future in a regime which is amenable to human existence in a manner that is acceptable. The issue of sustainability has naturally arisen from the observation that a growing human population is c...

Aging Water Infrastructure and Nutrient Control at WWTPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Program

EPA Science Inventory

What are… the effects of major influencing factors (climate change, population dynamics, etc.) on future system demands? the innovative technologies that can cost-effectively improve performance and extend the life of existing systems? the new designs and management approaches...

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-01-01

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Leisure Today: Selected Readings. Volume III.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendell, Ron, Ed.

The articles in this compilation from issues of "Leisure Today"--a membership service which appears as an insert in the "Journal of Physical Education, Recreation, and Dance"-- address the trends, realities, and futures in the development of recreational and leisure programs. Readings have been selected on: (1) population dynamics and leisure; (2)…

Water dynamics and population pressure in the Nepalese Himalayas.

PubMed

Schreier, H; Shah, P B

1996-10-01

The authors investigate the impact of water shortages, especially water for irrigation, on development in Nepal. "The problems associated with hydropower development will be illustrated by using the Kulekhani watershed project as a case study." The possible future effects on food supplies and health are discussed. excerpt

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

2007-01-01

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

El Niño controls Holocene rabbit and hare populations in Baja California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Isaac A.; Broughton, Jack M.; Gruhn, Ruth

2015-07-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of climatic variation worldwide, with significant impacts on modern human and animal populations. However, few detailed records exist on the long-term effects of ENSO on prehistoric vertebrate populations. Here we examine how lagomorph (rabbit and hare) deposition rate, population age structure and taxonomic composition from Abrigo de los Escorpiones, a well-dated, trans-Holocene vertebrate fauna from northern Baja California, Mexico, vary as a function of the frequency of wet El Niño events and eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) derived from eastern Pacific geological records. Faunal indices vary significantly in response to El Niño-based precipitation and SST, with substantial moisture-driven variability in the middle and late Holocene. The late Holocene moisture pulse is coincident with previously documented changes in the population dynamics of other vertebrates, including humans. As the frequency and intensity of ENSO is anticipated to vary in the future, these results have important implications for change in future vertebrate populations.

Narrative dynamics in social groups: A discrete choice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, A.; Bellanca, N.; Galdi, G.; Sodini, M.

2018-05-01

Individuals follow different rules for action: they react swiftly, grasping the short-term advantages in sight, or they waste cognitive resources to complete otherwise easy tasks, but they are able to plan ahead future complex decisions. Scholars from different disciplines studied the conditions under which either decision rule may enhance the fitness of its adopters, with a focus on the environmental features. However, we here propose that a crucial feature of the evolution of populations and their decision rules is rather inter-group interactions. Indeed, we study what happens when two groups support different decision rules, encapsulated in narratives, and their populations interact with each other. In particular, we assume that the payoff of each rule depends on the share of both social groups which adopt such rules. We then describe the most salient dynamics scenarios and identify the conditions which lead to chaotic dynamics and multistability regimes.

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

2017-06-01

In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata

2016-01-01

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade. PMID:26816214

Black Hole Safari: Tracking Populations and Hunting Big Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnell, N. J.

2013-10-01

Understanding the physical connection, or lack thereof, between the growth of galaxies and supermassive black holes is a key challenge in extragalactic astronomy. Dynamical studies of nearby galaxies are building a census of black hole masses across a broad range of galaxy types and uncovering statistical correlations between galaxy bulge properties and black hole masses. These local correlations provide a baseline for studying galaxies and black holes at higher redshifts. Recent measurements have probed the extremes of the supermassive black hole population and introduced surprises that challenge simple models of black hole and galaxy co-evolution. Future advances in the quality and quantity of dynamical black hole mass measurements will shed light upon the growth of massive galaxies and black holes in different cosmic environments.

Experimental evolution and the dynamics of genomic mutation rate modifiers.

PubMed

Raynes, Y; Sniegowski, P D

2014-11-01

Because genes that affect mutation rates are themselves subject to mutation, mutation rates can be influenced by natural selection and other evolutionary forces. The population genetics of mutation rate modifier alleles has been a subject of theoretical interest for many decades. Here, we review experimental contributions to our understanding of mutation rate modifier dynamics. Numerous evolution experiments have shown that mutator alleles (modifiers that elevate the genomic mutation rate) can readily rise to high frequencies via genetic hitchhiking in non-recombining microbial populations. Whereas these results certainly provide an explanatory framework for observations of sporadically high mutation rates in pathogenic microbes and in cancer lineages, it is nonetheless true that most natural populations have very low mutation rates. This raises the interesting question of how mutator hitchhiking is suppressed or its phenotypic effect reversed in natural populations. Very little experimental work has addressed this question; with this in mind, we identify some promising areas for future experimental investigation.

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

2011-04-01

Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms.

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

Domestic Violence Between Same-Gender Partners: Recent Findings and Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClennen, Joan C.

2005-01-01

Empirical literature about same-gender domestic violence was relatively nonexistent until the past 20 years, and conducting research with this population about a sensitive topic remains a daunting endeavor. Existing studies reveal similarities between opposite- and same-gender domestic violence in prevalence, types of abuse, and various dynamics,…

Emerald ash borer aftermath forests: the future of ash ecosystems

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight; Daniel A. Herms; John Cardina; Robert Long; Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Catharine P. Herms

2011-01-01

The effects of emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) on forest ecosystems are being studied through a collaborative research program between the U.S. Forest Service and The Ohio State University. We are monitoring ash demographics, understory light availability, EAB population dynamics, native and non-native plants, and effects of ash...

Population dynamics in the presence of quasispecies effects and changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Robert Burke

2006-12-01

This thesis explores how natural selection acts on organisms such as viruses that have either highly error-prone reproduction or face variable environmental conditions or both. By modeling population dynamics under these conditions, we gain a better understanding of the selective forces at work, both in our simulations and hopefully also in real organisms. With an understanding of the important factors in natural selection we can forecast not only the immediate fate of an existing population but also in what directions such a population might evolve in the future. We demonstrate that the concept of a quasispecies is relevant to evolution in a neutral fitness landscape. Motivated by RNA viruses such as HIV, we use RNA secondary structure as our model system and find that quasispecies effects arise both rapidly and in realistically small populations. We discover that the evolutionary effects of neutral drift, punctuated equilibrium and the selection for mutational robustness extend to the concept of a quasispecies. In our study of periodic environments, we consider the tradeoffs faced by quasispecies in adapting to environmental change. We develop an analytical model to predict whether evolution favors short-term or long-term adaptation and validate our model through simulation. Our results bear directly on the population dynamics of viruses such as West Nile that alternate between two host species. More generally, we discover that a selective pressure exists under these conditions to fuse or split genes with complementary environmental functions. Lastly, we study the general effects of frequency-dependent selection on two strains competing in a periodic environment. Under very general assumptions, we prove that stable coexistence rather than extinction is the likely outcome. The population dynamics of this system may be as simple as stable equilibrium or as complex as deterministic chaos.

Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

2017-03-01

Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

Investigating genetic diversity and habitat dynamics in Plantago brutia (Plantaginaceae), implications for the management of narrow endemics in Mediterranean mountain pastures.

PubMed

De Vita, A; Bernardo, L; Gargano, D; Palermo, A M; Peruzzi, L; Musacchio, A

2009-11-01

Many factors have contributed to the richness of narrow endemics in the Mediterranean, including long-lasting human impact on pristine landscapes. The abandonment of traditional land-use practices is causing forest recovery throughout the Mediterranean mountains, by increasing reduction and fragmentation of open habitats. We investigated the population genetic structure and habitat dynamics of Plantago brutia Ten., a narrow endemic in mountain pastures of S Italy. Some plants were cultivated in the botanical garden to explore the species' breeding system. Genetic diversity was evaluated based on inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) polymorphisms in 150 individuals from most of known stands. Recent dynamics in the species habitat were checked over a 14-year period. Flower phenology, stigma receptivity and experimental pollinations revealed protogyny and self-incompatibility. With the exception of very small and isolated populations, high genetic diversity was found at the species and population level. amova revealed weak differentiation among populations, and the Mantel test suggested absence of isolation-by-distance. Multivariate analysis of population and genetic data distinguished the populations based on genetic richness, size and isolation. Landscape analyses confirmed recent reduction and isolation of potentially suitable habitats. Low selfing, recent isolation and probable seed exchange may have preserved P. brutia populations from higher loss of genetic diversity. Nonetheless, data related to very small populations suggest that this species may suffer further fragmentation and isolation. To preserve most of the species' genetic richness, future management efforts should consider the large and isolated populations recognised in our analyses.

Capture-recapture methodology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, William R.; Kendall, William L.

2013-01-01

Capture-recapture methods were initially developed to estimate human population abundance, but since that time have seen widespread use for fish and wildlife populations to estimate and model various parameters of population, metapopulation, and disease dynamics. Repeated sampling of marked animals provides information for estimating abundance and tracking the fate of individuals in the face of imperfect detection. Mark types have evolved from clipping or tagging to use of noninvasive methods such as photography of natural markings and DNA collection from feces. Survival estimation has been emphasized more recently as have transition probabilities between life history states and/or geographical locations, even where some states are unobservable or uncertain. Sophisticated software has been developed to handle highly parameterized models, including environmental and individual covariates, to conduct model selection, and to employ various estimation approaches such as maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. With these user-friendly tools, complex statistical models for studying population dynamics have been made available to ecologists. The future will include a continuing trend toward integrating data types, both for tagged and untagged individuals, to produce more precise and robust population models.

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Nonlinear dynamics support a linear population code in a retinal target-tracking circuit.

PubMed

Leonardo, Anthony; Meister, Markus

2013-10-23

A basic task faced by the visual system of many organisms is to accurately track the position of moving prey. The retina is the first stage in the processing of such stimuli; the nature of the transformation here, from photons to spike trains, constrains not only the ultimate fidelity of the tracking signal but also the ease with which it can be extracted by other brain regions. Here we demonstrate that a population of fast-OFF ganglion cells in the salamander retina, whose dynamics are governed by a nonlinear circuit, serve to compute the future position of the target over hundreds of milliseconds. The extrapolated position of the target is not found by stimulus reconstruction but is instead computed by a weighted sum of ganglion cell outputs, the population vector average (PVA). The magnitude of PVA extrapolation varies systematically with target size, speed, and acceleration, such that large targets are tracked most accurately at high speeds, and small targets at low speeds, just as is seen in the motion of real prey. Tracking precision reaches the resolution of single photoreceptors, and the PVA algorithm performs more robustly than several alternative algorithms. If the salamander brain uses the fast-OFF cell circuit for target extrapolation as we suggest, the circuit dynamics should leave a microstructure on the behavior that may be measured in future experiments. Our analysis highlights the utility of simple computations that, while not globally optimal, are efficiently implemented and have close to optimal performance over a limited but ethologically relevant range of stimuli.

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

PubMed

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Myotis species of bats such as the Indiana Bat and Little Brown Bat are facing population declines because of White-nose syndrome (WNS). These species also face threats from anthropogenic activities such as wind energy development. Population models may be used to provide insights into threats facing these species. We developed a population model, BatTool, as an R package to help decision makers and natural resource managers examine factors influencing the dynamics of these species. The R package includes two components: 1) a deterministic and stochastic model that are accessible from the command line and 2) a graphical user interface (GUI). Results BatTool is an R package allowing natural resource managers and decision makers to understand Myotis spp. population dynamics. Through the use of a GUI, the model allows users to understand how WNS and other take events may affect the population. The results are saved both graphically and as data files. Additionally, R-savvy users may access the population functions through the command line and reuse the code as part of future research. This R package could also be used as part of a population dynamics or wildlife management course. Conclusions BatTool provides access to a Myotis spp. population model. This tool can help natural resource managers and decision makers with the Endangered Species Act deliberations for these species and with issuing take permits as part of regulatory decision making. The tool is available online as part of this publication. PMID:24955110

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2014-01-01

Background: Myotis species of bats such as the Indiana Bat and Little Brown Bat are facing population declines because of White-nose syndrome (WNS). These species also face threats from anthropogenic activities such as wind energy development. Population models may be used to provide insights into threats facing these species. We developed a population model, BatTool, as an R package to help decision makers and natural resource managers examine factors influencing the dynamics of these species. The R package includes two components: 1) a deterministic and stochastic model that are accessible from the command line and 2) a graphical user interface (GUI). Results: BatTool is an R package allowing natural resource managers and decision makers to understand Myotis spp. population dynamics. Through the use of a GUI, the model allows users to understand how WNS and other take events may affect the population. The results are saved both graphically and as data files. Additionally, R-savvy users may access the population functions through the command line and reuse the code as part of future research. This R package could also be used as part of a population dynamics or wildlife management course. Conclusions: BatTool provides access to a Myotis spp. population model. This tool can help natural resource managers and decision makers with the Endangered Species Act deliberations for these species and with issuing take permits as part of regulatory decision making. The tool is available online as part of this publication.

BatTool: an R package with GUI for assessing the effect of White-nose syndrome and other take events on Myotis spp. of bats.

PubMed

Erickson, Richard A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Szymanski, Jennifer A

2014-01-01

Myotis species of bats such as the Indiana Bat and Little Brown Bat are facing population declines because of White-nose syndrome (WNS). These species also face threats from anthropogenic activities such as wind energy development. Population models may be used to provide insights into threats facing these species. We developed a population model, BatTool, as an R package to help decision makers and natural resource managers examine factors influencing the dynamics of these species. The R package includes two components: 1) a deterministic and stochastic model that are accessible from the command line and 2) a graphical user interface (GUI). BatTool is an R package allowing natural resource managers and decision makers to understand Myotis spp. population dynamics. Through the use of a GUI, the model allows users to understand how WNS and other take events may affect the population. The results are saved both graphically and as data files. Additionally, R-savvy users may access the population functions through the command line and reuse the code as part of future research. This R package could also be used as part of a population dynamics or wildlife management course. BatTool provides access to a Myotis spp. population model. This tool can help natural resource managers and decision makers with the Endangered Species Act deliberations for these species and with issuing take permits as part of regulatory decision making. The tool is available online as part of this publication.

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurgers, Guy; Camia, Andrea; Arneth, Almut

2015-11-01

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

Dynamics of the double-crested cormorant population on Lake Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blackwell, Bradley F.; Stapanian, Martin A.; Weseloh, D.V. Chip

2002-01-01

After nearly 30 years of recolonization and expansion across North America, the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) occupies the role of a perceived and, in some situations, realized threat to fish stocks and other resources. However, population data necessary to plan, defend, and implement management of this species are few. Our purpose was to gain insight into the relative contribution of various population parameters to the overall rate of population growth and identify data needs critical to improving our understanding of the dynamics of double-crested cormorant populations. We demonstrated the construction of a biologically reasonable representation of cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario (1979-2000) by referencing literature values for fertility, age at first breeding, and survival. These parameters were incorporated into a deterministic stage-classified matrix model. By calculating the elasticity of matrix elements (i.e., statgspecific fertility and survival), we found that cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario was most sensitive to survival of birds about to turn age 3 and older. Finally, we demonstrated how this information could be used to evaluate management scenarios and direct future research by simulating potential environmental effects on fertility and survival, as well as a 5-year egg-oiling program. We also demonstrated that survival of older birds exerts more effective population control than changes in fertility.

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Riparian trees and aridland streams of the southwestern United States: An assessment of the past, present, and future

Treesearch

D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

2016-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are vital components of aridlands within the southwestern United States. Historically, surface flows influenced population dynamics of native riparian trees. Many southwestern streams has been altered by regulation, however, and will be further affected by greenhouse warming. Our analysis of stream gage data revealed that decreases in...

Evaluations of alternative methods for monitoring and estimating responses of salmon productivity in the North Pacific to future climatic change and other processes: A simulation study

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of the relative influence of climate change, compared to other human activities, on dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations can help management agencies take appropriate management actions. We used empirically based simulation modelling of 48 sockeye...

Past, present, and future of a freshwater fish metapopulation in a threatened landscape.

PubMed

Vera-Escalona, Iván; Senthivasan, Shreeram; Habit, Evelyn; Ruzzante, Daniel E

2018-02-12

It is well documented that hydropower plants can affect the dynamics of fish populations through landscape alterations and the creation of new barriers. Less emphasis has been placed on the examination of the genetic consequences for fish populations of the construction of dams. The relatively few studies that focus on genetics often do not consider colonization history and even fewer tend to use this information for conservation purposes. As a case study, we used a 3-pronged approach to study the influence of historical processes, contemporary landscape features, and potential future anthropogenic changes in landscape on the genetic diversity of a fish metapopulation. Our goal was to identify the metapopulation's main attributes, detect priority areas for conservation, and assess the consequences of the construction of hydropower plants for the persistence of the metapopulation. We used microsatellite markers and coalescent approaches to examine historical colonization processes, traditional population genetics, and simulations of future populations under alternate scenarios of population size reduction and gene flow. Historical gene flow appeared to have declined relatively recently and contemporary populations appeared highly susceptible to changes in landscape. Gene flow is critical for population persistence. We found that hydropower plants could lead to a rapid reduction in number of alleles and to population extirpation 50-80 years after their construction. More generally, our 3-pronged approach for the analyses of empirical genetic data can provide policy makers with information on the potential impacts of landscape changes and thus lead to more robust conservation efforts. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. Methods A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Results Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. Conclusions A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions. PMID:23419192

Emergent properties of interacting populations of spiking neurons.

PubMed

Cardanobile, Stefano; Rotter, Stefan

2011-01-01

Dynamic neuronal networks are a key paradigm of increasing importance in brain research, concerned with the functional analysis of biological neuronal networks and, at the same time, with the synthesis of artificial brain-like systems. In this context, neuronal network models serve as mathematical tools to understand the function of brains, but they might as well develop into future tools for enhancing certain functions of our nervous system. Here, we present and discuss our recent achievements in developing multiplicative point processes into a viable mathematical framework for spiking network modeling. The perspective is that the dynamic behavior of these neuronal networks is faithfully reflected by a set of non-linear rate equations, describing all interactions on the population level. These equations are similar in structure to Lotka-Volterra equations, well known by their use in modeling predator-prey relations in population biology, but abundant applications to economic theory have also been described. We present a number of biologically relevant examples for spiking network function, which can be studied with the help of the aforementioned correspondence between spike trains and specific systems of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. We claim that, enabled by the use of multiplicative point processes, we can make essential contributions to a more thorough understanding of the dynamical properties of interacting neuronal populations.

Emergent Properties of Interacting Populations of Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Cardanobile, Stefano; Rotter, Stefan

2011-01-01

Dynamic neuronal networks are a key paradigm of increasing importance in brain research, concerned with the functional analysis of biological neuronal networks and, at the same time, with the synthesis of artificial brain-like systems. In this context, neuronal network models serve as mathematical tools to understand the function of brains, but they might as well develop into future tools for enhancing certain functions of our nervous system. Here, we present and discuss our recent achievements in developing multiplicative point processes into a viable mathematical framework for spiking network modeling. The perspective is that the dynamic behavior of these neuronal networks is faithfully reflected by a set of non-linear rate equations, describing all interactions on the population level. These equations are similar in structure to Lotka-Volterra equations, well known by their use in modeling predator-prey relations in population biology, but abundant applications to economic theory have also been described. We present a number of biologically relevant examples for spiking network function, which can be studied with the help of the aforementioned correspondence between spike trains and specific systems of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. We claim that, enabled by the use of multiplicative point processes, we can make essential contributions to a more thorough understanding of the dynamical properties of interacting neuronal populations. PMID:22207844

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-10-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes. PMID:27703191

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Methods Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. Results The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence. PMID:20969750

Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

PubMed

Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

2012-03-01

The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Samniqueka J; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

2015-01-01

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

A dynamic code for economic object valuation in prefrontal cortex neurons

PubMed Central

Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro; Grabenhorst, Fabian; Kobayashi, Shunsuke; Schultz, Wolfram

2016-01-01

Neuronal reward valuations provide the physiological basis for economic behaviour. Yet, how such valuations are converted to economic decisions remains unclear. Here we show that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) implements a flexible value code based on object-specific valuations by single neurons. As monkeys perform a reward-based foraging task, individual DLPFC neurons signal the value of specific choice objects derived from recent experience. These neuronal object values satisfy principles of competitive choice mechanisms, track performance fluctuations and follow predictions of a classical behavioural model (Herrnstein’s matching law). Individual neurons dynamically encode both, the updating of object values from recently experienced rewards, and their subsequent conversion to object choices during decision-making. Decoding from unselected populations enables a read-out of motivational and decision variables not emphasized by individual neurons. These findings suggest a dynamic single-neuron and population value code in DLPFC that advances from reward experiences to economic object values and future choices. PMID:27618960

Stochastic modeling for dynamics of HIV-1 infection using cellular automata: A review.

PubMed

Precharattana, Monamorn

2016-02-01

Recently, the description of immune response by discrete models has emerged to play an important role to study the problems in the area of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection, leading to AIDS. As infection of target immune cells by HIV-1 mainly takes place in the lymphoid tissue, cellular automata (CA) models thus represent a significant step in understanding when the infected population is dispersed. Motivated by these, the studies of the dynamics of HIV-1 infection using CA in memory have been presented to recognize how CA have been developed for HIV-1 dynamics, which issues have been studied already and which issues still are objectives in future studies.

Oceanographic mechanisms and penguin population increases during the Little Ice Age in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lianjiao; Sun, Liguang; Emslie, Steven D.; Xie, Zhouqing; Huang, Tao; Gao, Yuesong; Yang, Wenqing; Chu, Zhuding; Wang, Yuhong

2018-01-01

The Adélie penguin is a well-known indicator for climate and environmental changes. Exploring how large-scale climate variability affects penguin ecology in the past is essential for understanding the responses of Southern Ocean ecosystems to future global change. Using ornithogenic sediments at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica, we inferred relative population changes of Adélie penguins in the southern Ross Sea over the past 500 yr, and observed an increase in penguin populations during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1850 AD). We used cadmium content in ancient penguin guano as a proxy of ocean upwelling and identified a close linkage between penguin dynamics and atmospheric circulation and oceanic conditions. During the cold period of ∼1600-1825 AD, a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) led to stronger winds, intensified ocean upwelling, enlarged Ross Sea and McMurdo Sound polynyas, and thus higher food abundance and penguin populations. We propose a mechanism linking Antarctic marine ecology and atmospheric/oceanic dynamics which can help explain and predict responses of Antarctic high latitudes ecosystems to climate change.

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

Archived DNA reveals fisheries and climate induced collapse of a major fishery.

PubMed

Bonanomi, Sara; Pellissier, Loïc; Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Hedeholm, Rasmus Berg; Retzel, Anja; Meldrup, Dorte; Olsen, Steffen Malskær; Nielsen, Anders; Pampoulie, Christophe; Hemmer-Hansen, Jakob; Wisz, Mary Susanne; Grønkjær, Peter; Nielsen, Einar Eg

2015-10-22

Fishing and climate change impact the demography of marine fishes, but it is generally ignored that many species are made up of genetically distinct locally adapted populations that may show idiosyncratic responses to environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Here, we track 80 years of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population dynamics in West Greenland using DNA from archived otoliths in combination with fish population and niche based modeling. We document how the interacting effects of climate change and high fishing pressure lead to dramatic spatiotemporal changes in the proportions and abundance of different genetic populations, and eventually drove the cod fishery to a collapse in the early 1970s. Our results highlight the relevance of fisheries management at the level of genetic populations under future scenarios of climate change.

Archived DNA reveals fisheries and climate induced collapse of a major fishery

PubMed Central

Bonanomi, Sara; Pellissier, Loïc; Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Hedeholm, Rasmus Berg; Retzel, Anja; Meldrup, Dorte; Olsen, Steffen Malskær; Nielsen, Anders; Pampoulie, Christophe; Hemmer-Hansen, Jakob; Wisz, Mary Susanne; Grønkjær, Peter; Nielsen, Einar Eg

2015-01-01

Fishing and climate change impact the demography of marine fishes, but it is generally ignored that many species are made up of genetically distinct locally adapted populations that may show idiosyncratic responses to environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Here, we track 80 years of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population dynamics in West Greenland using DNA from archived otoliths in combination with fish population and niche based modeling. We document how the interacting effects of climate change and high fishing pressure lead to dramatic spatiotemporal changes in the proportions and abundance of different genetic populations, and eventually drove the cod fishery to a collapse in the early 1970s. Our results highlight the relevance of fisheries management at the level of genetic populations under future scenarios of climate change. PMID:26489934

Archived DNA reveals fisheries and climate induced collapse of a major fishery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonanomi, Sara; Pellissier, Loïc; Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Hedeholm, Rasmus Berg; Retzel, Anja; Meldrup, Dorte; Olsen, Steffen Malskær; Nielsen, Anders; Pampoulie, Christophe; Hemmer-Hansen, Jakob; Wisz, Mary Susanne; Grønkjær, Peter; Nielsen, Einar Eg

2015-10-01

Fishing and climate change impact the demography of marine fishes, but it is generally ignored that many species are made up of genetically distinct locally adapted populations that may show idiosyncratic responses to environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Here, we track 80 years of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population dynamics in West Greenland using DNA from archived otoliths in combination with fish population and niche based modeling. We document how the interacting effects of climate change and high fishing pressure lead to dramatic spatiotemporal changes in the proportions and abundance of different genetic populations, and eventually drove the cod fishery to a collapse in the early 1970s. Our results highlight the relevance of fisheries management at the level of genetic populations under future scenarios of climate change.

Estimation of future PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing climate: An application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique.

PubMed

Sun, Jian; Fu, Joshua S; Huang, Kan; Gao, Yang

2015-05-01

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12×12 km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry model under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentration in continental U.S. decreases nationwide, especially in the Eastern U.S. and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern U.S. but increase in the Western U.S. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) using the projected baseline incidence rate and population in 2050. For PM2.5, the entire continental U.S. presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the confidence interval of all causes mortality is much larger than that for specific causes, probably due to the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets and sample size. The confidence interval of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of the concentration-mortality response factor. The health impact of PM2.5 is more linearly proportional to the emission reductions than ozone. The reduction of anthropogenic PM2.5 precursor emissions is likely to lead to the decrease of PM2.5 concentrations and PM2.5 related mortality. However, the future ozone concentrations could increase due to increase of the greenhouse gas emissions of methane. Thus, to reduce the impact of ozone related mortality, anthropogenic emissions including criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (i.e. methane) need to be controlled.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

PubMed

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

Conservation of the Yellowstone grizzly bear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, David J.; Reid, Matthew M.

1991-01-01

We review literature relevant to the conservation of Yellowstone's grizzly bear population and appraise the bear's long-term viability. We conclude that the population is isolated and vulnerable to epidemic perturbation and that the carrying capacity of the habitat is likely to shift downward under conditions of climate change. Viability analyses based on the assumption that future habitats will closely resemble those existing at present have limited applicability; more information is needed on the autecology of important bear foods and on the implications of landscape-scale changes for bear population dynamics. Optimism over prospects of long-term persistence for Yellowstone's grizzly bears does not seem to be warranted and management of this population should be conservative and not unduly swayed on short-term positive trends.

Multimodel inference to quantify the relative importance of abiotic factors in the population dynamics of marine zooplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everaert, Gert; Deschutter, Yana; De Troch, Marleen; Janssen, Colin R.; De Schamphelaere, Karel

2018-05-01

The effect of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems remains poorly understood and most of the knowledge available is related to phytoplankton. To partly address this knowledge gap, we tested if combining multimodel inference with generalized additive modelling could quantify the relative contribution of environmental variables on the population dynamics of a zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hence, we have quantified the relative contribution of oceanographic variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations) and anthropogenic chemicals (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls) to the density of Acartia clausi. We found that models with water temperature and chlorophyll a concentration explained ca. 73% of the population density of the marine copepod. Multimodel inference in combination with regression-based models are a generic way to disentangle and quantify multiple stressor-induced changes in marine ecosystems. Future-oriented simulations of copepod densities suggested increased copepod densities under predicted environmental changes.

An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed. PMID:25945497

An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.

PubMed

Cooley, Sarah R; Rheuban, Jennie E; Hart, Deborah R; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M; Hare, Jonathan A; Doney, Scott C

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

PubMed

McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

2012-12-01

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

PubMed Central

Tompkins, Emily M.; Townsend, Howard M.

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies’ foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies’ island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate. PMID:28832597

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

PubMed

Tompkins, Emily M; Townsend, Howard M; Anderson, David J

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Load-sensitive dynamic workflow re-orchestration and optimisation for faster patient healthcare.

PubMed

Meli, Christopher L; Khalil, Ibrahim; Tari, Zahir

2014-01-01

Hospital waiting times are considerably long, with no signs of reducing any-time soon. A number of factors including population growth, the ageing population and a lack of new infrastructure are expected to further exacerbate waiting times in the near future. In this work, we show how healthcare services can be modelled as queueing nodes, together with healthcare service workflows, such that these workflows can be optimised during execution in order to reduce patient waiting times. Services such as X-ray, computer tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging often form queues, thus, by taking into account the waiting times of each service, the workflow can be re-orchestrated and optimised. Experimental results indicate average waiting time reductions are achievable by optimising workflows using dynamic re-orchestration. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wild European apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) population dynamics: insight from genetics and ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a future conservation programme.

PubMed

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically "pure" populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple.

Wild European Apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) Population Dynamics: Insight from Genetics and Ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a Future Conservation Programme

PubMed Central

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically “pure” populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple. PMID:24827575

Long-term population cycles in human societies.

PubMed

Turchin, Peter

2009-04-01

Human population dynamics are usually conceptualized as either boundless growth or growth to an equilibrium. The implicit assumption underlying these paradigms is that any feedback processes regulating population density, if they exist, operate on a fast-time-scale, and therefore we do not expect to observe population oscillations in human population numbers. This review asks, are population processes in historical and prehistorical human populations characterized by second-order feedback loops, that is, regulation involving lags? If yes, then the implications for forecasting future population change are obvious--what may appear as inexplicable, exogenously driven reverses in population trends may actually be a result of feedbacks operating with substantial time lags. This survey of a variety of historical and archeological data indicates that slow oscillations in population numbers, with periods of roughly two to three centuries, are observed in a number of world regions and historical periods. Next, a potential explanation for this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, is discussed. Finally, the implications of these results for global population forecasts is discussed.

Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

PubMed

Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

2017-12-31

For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis—Integrative report 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; James, Daniel A.; Welker, Timothy L.; Parsley, Michael J.

2016-07-15

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis was designed to carry out three components of an assessment of how Missouri River management has affected, and will affect, population dynamics of endangered Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon): (1) collection of reliable scientific information, (2) critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses, and (3) analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. This report is a synthesis of the three components emphasizing development of lines of evidence relating potential future management actions to pallid sturgeon population dynamics. We address 21 working management hypotheses that emerged from an expert opinion-based filtering process.The ability to quantify linkages from abiotic changes to pallid sturgeon population dynamics is compromised by fundamental information gaps. Although a substantial foundation of pallid sturgeon science has been developed during the past 20 years, our efforts attempt to push beyond that understanding to provide predictions of how future management actions may affect pallid sturgeon responses. For some of the 21 hypotheses, lines of evidence are limited to theoretical deduction, inference from sparse empirical datasets, or expert opinion. Useful simulation models have been developed to predict the effects of management actions on survival of drifting pallid sturgeon free embryos in the Yellowstone and Upper Missouri River complex (hereafter referred to as the “upper river”), and to assess the effects of flow and channel reconfigurations on habitat availability in the Lower Missouri River, tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of Gavins Point Dam (hereafter referred to as the “lower river”). A population model also has been developed that can be used to assess sensitivity of the population to survival of specific life stages, assess some hypotheses related to stocking decisions, and explore a limited number of management scenarios.Consideration of lines of evidence for each of the 21 hypotheses includes a discussion of how the degree of uncertainty and risk associated with each hypothesis may guide science and implementation strategies. Implementation strategies include full implementation in the field, limited implementations as field-scale experiments, or (in the case of greatest uncertainty) implementation as learning actions, including research and opportunistic experiments or field-based gradient studies. Given the substantive uncertainties associated with pallid sturgeon population dynamics and the need to continually assimilate and assess new information, we proposed that an Effects Analysis-like process should be considered an integral part of ongoing Missouri River adaptive management.

Multipulse interaction quenched ultracold few-bosonic ensembles in finite optical lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mistakidis, Simeon; Neuhaus-Steinmetz, Jannis; Schmelcher, Peter; Theory Group of Fundamental Processes in Quantum Physics Team

2017-04-01

The correlated non-equilibrium dynamics following a multipulse interaction quench protocol in few-bosonic ensembles confined in finite optical lattices is investigated. The multipulse interaction quench gives rise to the cradle and a global breathing mode. These modes are generated during the interaction pulse and persist also after the pulse. The corresponding tunneling dynamics consists of several energy channels accompanying the dynamics. The majority of the tunneling channels persist after the pulse, while only a few occur during the pulse. The induced excitation dynamics is also explored and a strong non-linear dependence on the delayed time of the multipulse protocol is observed. Moreover, the character of the excitation dynamics is also manifested by the periodic population of higher-lying lattice momenta. The above mentioned findings pave the way for future investigations on the direct control of the excitation dynamics. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the SFB 925 ``Light induced dynamics and control of correlated quantum systems''.

Projecting Age-Stratified Risk of Exposure to Inland Flooding and Wildfire Smoke in the United States under Two Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Wobus, Cameron; Ekstrom, Julia; Jantarasami, Lesley; St Juliana, Alexis; Crimmins, Allison

2018-04-17

The public health community readily recognizes flooding and wildfires as climate-related health hazards, but few studies quantify changes in risk of exposure, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. This study quantifies future populations potentially exposed to inland flooding and wildfire smoke under two climate scenarios, highlighting the populations in particularly vulnerable age groups (≤4 y old and ≥65 y old). Spatially explicit projections of inland flooding and wildfire under two representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) are integrated with static (2010) and dynamic (2050 and 2090) age-stratified projections of future contiguous U.S. populations at the county level. In both 2050 and 2090, an additional one-third of the population will live in areas affected by larger and more frequent inland flooding under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. Approximately 15 million children and 25 million older adults could avoid this increased risk of flood exposure each year by 2090 under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5). We also find reduced exposure to wildfire smoke under the moderate mitigation scenario. Nearly 1 million young children and 1.7 million older adults would avoid exposure to wildfire smoke each year under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. By integrating climate-driven hazard and population projections, newly created county-level exposure maps identify locations of potential significant future public health risk. These potential exposure results can help inform actions to prevent and prepare for associated future adverse health outcomes, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2594.

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2017-06-01

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics—such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states—are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

Analysis and prediction of pest dynamics in an agroforestry context using Tiko'n, a generic tool to develop food web models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Marcela; Malard, Julien; Adamowski, Jan; Carrera, Jaime Luis; Maas, Raúl

2017-04-01

While it is known that climate change will impact future plant-pest population dynamics, potentially affecting crop damage, agroforestry with its enhanced biodiversity is said to reduce the outbreaks of pest insects by providing natural enemies for the control of pest populations. This premise is known in the literature as the natural enemy hypothesis and has been widely studied qualitatively. However, disagreement still exists on whether biodiversity enhancement reduces pest outbreaks, showing the need of quantitatively understanding the mechanisms behind the interactions between pests and natural enemies, also known as trophic interactions. Crop pest models that study insect population dynamics in agroforestry contexts are very rare, and pest models that take trophic interactions into account are even rarer. This may be due to the difficulty of representing complex food webs in a quantifiable model. There is therefore a need for validated food web models that allow users to predict the response of these webs to changes in climate in agroforestry systems. In this study we present Tiko'n, a Python-based software whose API allows users to rapidly build and validate trophic web models; the program uses a Bayesian inference approach to calibrate the models according to field data, allowing for the reuse of literature data from various sources and reducing the need for extensive field data collection. Tiko'n was run using coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella) and associated parasitoid data from a shaded coffee plantation, showing the mechanisms of insect population dynamics within a tri-trophic food web in an agroforestry system.

Projecting climate change in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; David P. Coulson; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence

2014-01-01

A set of climate change projections for the United States was developed for use in the 2010 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. These climate projections, along with projections for population dynamics, economic growth, and land use change in the United States, comprise the RPA scenarios and are used in the RPA Assessment to project future renewable resource conditions...

No Place Like Home: Place and Community Identity among North Country Youth. New England Issue Brief No. 24

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Genevieve R.; Tucker, Corinna Jenkins

2011-01-01

This brief explores the link between rural youths' identification with their community, their self-esteem, and their future plans. The panel study of New Hampshire's Coos County youth offers a snapshot into the dynamics of a population that is developing its identity in a region that is undergoing an identity transformation of its own. Place…

Nonlinear Socio-Ecological Dynamics and First Principles ofCollective Choice Behavior of ``Homo Socialis"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonis, M.

Socio-ecological dynamics emerged from the field of Mathematical SocialSciences and opened up avenues for re-examination of classical problems of collective behavior in Social and Spatial sciences. The ``engine" of this collective behavior is the subjective mental evaluation of level of utilities in the future, presenting sets of composite socio-economic-temporal-locational advantages. These dynamics present new laws of collective multi-population behavior which are the meso-level counterparts of the utility optimization individual behavior. The central core of the socio-ecological choice dynamics includes the following first principle of the collective choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" based on the existence of ``collective consciousness": the choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" is a collective meso-level choice behavior such that the relative changes in choice frequencies depend on the distribution of innovation alternatives between adopters of innovations. The mathematical basis of the Socio-Ecological Dynamics includes two complementary analytical approaches both based on the use of computer modeling as a theoretical and simulation tool. First approach is the ``continuous approach" --- the systems of ordinary and partial differential equations reflecting the continuous time Volterra ecological formalism in a form of antagonistic and/or cooperative collective hyper-games between different sub-sets of choice alternatives. Second approach is the ``discrete approach" --- systems of difference equations presenting a new branch of the non-linear discrete dynamics --- the Discrete Relative m-population/n-innovations Socio-Spatial Dynamics (Dendrinos and Sonis, 1990). The generalization of the Volterra formalism leads further to the meso-level variational principle of collective choice behavior determining the balance between the resulting cumulative social spatio-temporal interactions among the population of adopters susceptible to the choice alternatives and the cumulative equalization of the power of elites supporting different choice alternatives. This balance governs the dynamic innovation choice process and constitutes the dynamic meso-level counterpart of the micro-economic individual utility maximization principle.

Effects of leadership style and group dynamics on enjoyment of physical activity.

PubMed

Fox, L D; Rejeski, W J; Gauvin, L

2000-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to examine the independent and combined effects of leadership style and group dynamics on the enjoyment of physical activity. A completely randomized 2 x 2 factorial design was used in which the manipulation of "leadership style" (socially enriched vs. bland) was crossed with a manipulation of "group dynamics" (socially enriched vs. bland). The study was conducted in an aerobics studio on a university campus. The sample included 48 male and 42 female undergraduate students who were moderately active. Each participant was involved in a single session of step aerobics. A female graduate student provided either an enriched or bland series of interactions to manipulate leadership style, and a trained group of planted undergraduates was used to promote either an enriched or bland group environment. The outcome measures of interest were enjoyment and the probability of engaging in a similar activity in the future. Participants in the enriched leadership style plus enriched group dynamics condition reported higher enjoyment than did participants in the other three conditions. On average, the level of enjoyment was 22.07% higher in this condition than in the other three conditions (p < .001). The probability of future involvement was 13.93% higher for participants in the enriched group environment, irrespective of leadership style (p < .03). Enjoyment during physical activity is optimized when a positive and supportive leadership style is coupled with an enriched and supportive group environment. Future research is required to extend these findings to other activities and populations.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Models for the study of Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Best, Emma L.; Freeman, Jane; Wilcox, Mark H.

2012-01-01

Models of Clostridium difficile infection (C. difficile) have been used extensively for Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) research. The hamster model of C. difficile infection has been most extensively employed for the study of C. difficile and this has been used in many different areas of research, including the induction of C. difficile, the testing of new treatments, population dynamics and characterization of virulence. Investigations using in vitro models for C. difficile introduced the concept of colonization resistance, evaluated the role of antibiotics in C. difficile development, explored population dynamics and have been useful in the evaluation of C. difficile treatments. Experiments using models have major advantages over clinical studies and have been indispensible in furthering C. difficile research. It is important for future study programs to carefully consider the approach to use and therefore be better placed to inform the design and interpretation of clinical studies. PMID:22555466

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Johnson, Chad J.; Adams, Marie; McKenzie, Debbie I.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological bridges and barriers in pelagic ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briscoe, Dana K.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Carlisle, Aaron; Scales, Kylie; Eveson, J. Paige; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Druon, Jean Noel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc

2017-06-01

Many highly mobile species are known to use persistent pathways or corridors to move between habitat patches in which conditions are favorable for particular activities, such as breeding or foraging. In the marine realm, environmental variability can lead to the development of temporary periods of anomalous oceanographic conditions that can connect individuals to areas of habitat outside a population's usual range, or alternatively, restrict individuals from areas usually within their range, thus acting as ecological bridges or ecological barriers. These temporary features can result in novel or irregular trophic interactions and changes in population spatial dynamics, and, therefore, may have significant implications for management of marine ecosystems. Here, we provide evidence of ecological bridges and barriers in different ocean regions, drawing upon five case studies in which particular oceanographic conditions have facilitated or restricted the movements of individuals from highly migratory species. We discuss the potential population-level significance of ecological bridges and barriers, with respect to the life history characteristics of different species, and inter- and intra-population variability in habitat use. Finally, we summarize the persistence of bridge dynamics with time, our ability to monitor bridges and barriers in a changing climate, and implications for forecasting future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

2008-01-01

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Disease dynamics during wildlife translocations: disruptions to the host population and potential consequences for transmission in desert tortoise contact networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Walde, Andrew D.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, S.; Hudson, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Wildlife managers consider animal translocation a means of increasing the viability of a local population. However, augmentation may disrupt existing resident disease dynamics and initiate an outbreak that would effectively offset any advantages the translocation may have achieved. This paper examines fundamental concepts of disease ecology and identifies the conditions that will increase the likelihood of a disease outbreak following translocation. We highlight the importance of susceptibility to infection, population size and population connectivity – a characteristic likely affected by translocation but not often considered in risk assessments – in estimating outbreak risk due to translocation. We then explore these features in a species of conservation concern often translocated in the presence of infectious disease, the Mojave Desert tortoise, and use data from experimental tortoise translocations to detect changes in population connectivity that may influence pathogen transmission. Preliminary analyses comparing contact networks inferred from spatial data at control and translocation plots and infection simulation results through these networks suggest increased outbreak risk following translocation due to dispersal-driven changes in contact frequency and network structure. We outline future research goals to test these concepts and aid managers in designing effective risk assessment and intervention strategies that will improve translocation success.

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

2006-01-01

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

The Long Game: A Strategic Analysis of Military Drawdowns

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-13

government acts continually to define the dynamic relationship between the military and the population. Napoleon desired to, “make the French army the...nations. The UN and allied nations began to address the European food shortages, endemic diseases, widespread unemployment, a virtually non-existent...existent glorious past and promising a brighter future, Putin applied a proven formula for success. 78 The Russian annexation of Crimea went to a vote

DARe: Dark Asteroid Rendezvous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, K. S.; McFadden, L. A.; Rhoden, A. R.; Lim, L. F.; Boynton, W. V.; Carter, L. M.; Collins, G.; Englander, J. A.; Goossens, S. A.; Grundy, W. M.;

Linking environmental variability to population and community dynamics: Chapter 7

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pantel, Jelena H.; Pendleton, Daniel E.; Walters, Annika W.; Rogers, Lauren A.

2014-01-01

Linking population and community responses to environmental variability lies at the heart of ecology, yet methodological approaches vary and existence of broad patterns spanning taxonomic groups remains unclear. We review the characteristics of environmental and biological variability. Classic approaches to link environmental variability to population and community variability are discussed as are the importance of biotic factors such as life history and community interactions. In addition to classic approaches, newer techniques such as information theory and artificial neural networks are reviewed. The establishment and expansion of observing networks will provide new long-term ecological time-series data, and with it, opportunities to incorporate environmental variability into research. This review can help guide future research in the field of ecological and environmental variability.

Application of biomarkers in cancer risk management: evaluation from stochastic clonal evolutionary and dynamic system optimization points of view.

PubMed

Li, Xiaohong; Blount, Patricia L; Vaughan, Thomas L; Reid, Brian J

2011-02-01

Aside from primary prevention, early detection remains the most effective way to decrease mortality associated with the majority of solid cancers. Previous cancer screening models are largely based on classification of at-risk populations into three conceptually defined groups (normal, cancer without symptoms, and cancer with symptoms). Unfortunately, this approach has achieved limited successes in reducing cancer mortality. With advances in molecular biology and genomic technologies, many candidate somatic genetic and epigenetic "biomarkers" have been identified as potential predictors of cancer risk. However, none have yet been validated as robust predictors of progression to cancer or shown to reduce cancer mortality. In this Perspective, we first define the necessary and sufficient conditions for precise prediction of future cancer development and early cancer detection within a simple physical model framework. We then evaluate cancer risk prediction and early detection from a dynamic clonal evolution point of view, examining the implications of dynamic clonal evolution of biomarkers and the application of clonal evolution for cancer risk management in clinical practice. Finally, we propose a framework to guide future collaborative research between mathematical modelers and biomarker researchers to design studies to investigate and model dynamic clonal evolution. This approach will allow optimization of available resources for cancer control and intervention timing based on molecular biomarkers in predicting cancer among various risk subsets that dynamically evolve over time.

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

White, Kevin S; Gregovich, David P; Levi, Taal

2018-03-01

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

What can we learn from resource pulses?

PubMed

Yang, Louie H; Bastow, Justin L; Spence, Kenneth O; Wright, Amber N

2008-03-01

An increasing number of studies in a wide range of natural systems have investigated how pulses of resource availability influence ecological processes at individual, population, and community levels. Taken together, these studies suggest that some common processes may underlie pulsed resource dynamics in a wide diversity of systems. Developing a common framework of terms and concepts for the study of resource pulses may facilitate greater synthesis among these apparently disparate systems. Here, we propose a general definition of the resource pulse concept, outline some common patterns in the causes and consequences of resource pulses, and suggest a few key questions for future investigations. We define resource pulses as episodes of increased resource availability in space and time that combine low frequency (rarity), large magnitude (intensity), and short duration (brevity), and emphasize the importance of considering resource pulses at spatial and temporal scales relevant to specific resource-onsumer interactions. Although resource pulses are uncommon events for consumers in specific systems, our review of the existing literature suggests that pulsed resource dynamics are actually widespread phenomena in nature. Resource pulses often result from climatic and environmental factors, processes of spatiotemporal accumulation and release, outbreak population dynamics, or a combination of these factors. These events can affect life history traits and behavior at the level of individual consumers, numerical responses at the population level, and indirect effects at the community level. Consumers show strategies for utilizing ephemeral resources opportunistically, reducing resource variability by averaging over larger spatial scales, and tolerating extended interpulse periods of reduced resource availability. Resource pulses can also create persistent effects in communities through several mechanisms. We suggest that the study of resource pulses provides opportunities to understand the dynamics of many specific systems, and may also contribute to broader ecological questions at individual, population, and community levels.

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Jin, L; Futter, M N; Caesar, J; Barbour, E; Butterfield, D; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Hutton, C; Leckie, H D

2015-06-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2012-12-01

There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

2015-12-01

Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.

Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

2016-10-01

Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Beech, A J

2001-11-01

Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards

PubMed Central

Xue, Alexander T.; Brown, Jason L.; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F.; Rodrigues, Miguel T.; Hickerson, Michael J.; Carnaval, Ana C.

2016-01-01

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future. PMID:27432951

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards.

PubMed

Prates, Ivan; Xue, Alexander T; Brown, Jason L; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Hickerson, Michael J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-07-19

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.

Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

PubMed

Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

2013-11-01

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3 months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3 months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Microstructural Modeling of Dynamic Intergranular and Transgranular Fracture Modes in Zircaloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohammed, I.; Zikry, M.A.; Ziaei, S.

2017-04-01

In this time period, we have continued to focus on (i) refining the thermo-mechanical fracture model for zirconium (Zr) alloys subjected to large deformations and high temperatures that accounts for the cracking of ZrH and ZrH2 hydrides, (ii) formulating a framework to account intergranular fracture due to iodine diffusion and pit formation in grain-boundaries (GBs). Our future objectives are focused on extending to a combined population of ZrH and ZrH2 populations and understanding how thermo-mechanical behavior affects hydride reorientation and cracking. We will also refine the intergranular failure mechanisms for grain boundaries with pits.

[Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination].

PubMed

Morelos, J B

1989-01-01

Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.

Fishery management priorities vary with self‐recruitment in sedentary marine populations.

PubMed

Yau, Annie J; Lenihan, Hunter S; Kendall, Bruce E

Fisheries science often uses population models that assume no external recruitment, but nearshore marine populations harvested on small scales of <200 km often exhibit an unknown mix of self-recruitment and recruitment from external sources. Since empirical determination of self-recruitment vs. external recruitment is difficult, we used a modeling approach to examine the sensitivity of fishery management priorities to recruitment assumptions (self [closed], external [open]) in a local population of harvested giant clams (Tridacna maxima) on Mo'orea, French Polynesia. From 2006 to 2010, we measured growth, fecundity, recruitment, and survival (resulting from natural and fishing mortality). We used these data to parameterize both a closed (complete self-recruitment) and an open (no self-recruitment) integral projection model (IPM), and then calculated elasticities of demographic rates (growth, survival, recruitment) to future population abundance in 20 years. The models' lowest projected abundance was 93.4% (95% CI, [86.5%, 101.8%]) of present abundance, if the local population is entirely open and the present level of fishing mortality persists. The population will exhibit self-sustaining dynamics (1 ≤ λ ≤ 1.07) as for a closed population if the ratio of self-recruits per gram of dry gonad is >0.775 (equivalent to 52.85% self-recruitment under present conditions). Elasticity analysis of demographic parameters indicated that future abundance can most effectively be influenced by increasing survival of mid-sized clams (∼80–120 mm) if the population is self-sustaining, and by increasing survival of juvenile clams (∼40–70 mm) if the population is non-self-sustaining (as for an open population). Our results illustrate that management priorities can vary depending on the amount of self-recruitment in a local population.

Human nutrition, the gut microbiome, and immune system: envisioning the future

PubMed Central

Kau, Andrew L.; Ahern, Philip P.; Griffin, Nicholas W.; Goodman, Andrew L.; Gordon, Jeffrey I.

2012-01-01

Summary Paragraph Dramatic changes in socioeconomic status, cultural traditions, population growth, and agriculture are affecting diets worldwide. Understanding how our diet and nutritional status influence the composition and dynamic operations of our gut microbial communities, and the innate and adaptive arms of our immune system, represents an area of scientific need, opportunity and challenge. The insights gleaned should help address a number of pressing global health problems. PMID:21677749

Multiple mortality events in bats: a global review

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Cryan, Paul; Hayman, David TH; Plowright, Raina K.; Streicker, Daniel G.

2016-01-01

Collectively, over half of all reported MMEs were of anthropogenic origin. The documented occurrence of MMEs in bats due to abiotic factors such as intense storms, flooding, heat waves, and drought is likely to increase in the future with climate change. Coupled with the chronic threats of roosting and foraging habitat loss, increasing mortality through MMEs is unlikely to be compensated for, given the need for high survival in the dynamics of bat populations.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate change, estuaries and anadromous fish habitat in the northeastern United States: models, downscaling and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, B.; Gaitan, C. F.; Tommasi, D.; Saba, V. S.; Stock, C. A.; Dixon, K. W.

2016-02-01

Estuaries of the northeastern United States provide essential habitat for many anadromous fishes, across a range of life stages. Climate change is likely to impact estuarine environments and habitats through multiple pathways. Increasing air temperatures will result in a warming water column, and potentially increased stratification. In addition, changes to precipitation patterns may alter freshwater inflow dynamics, leading to altered seasonal salinity regimes. However, the spatial resolution of global climate models is generally insufficient to resolve these processes at the scale of individual estuaries. Global models can be downscaled to a regional resolution using a variety of dynamical and statistical methods. In this study, we examined projections of estuarine conditions, and future habitat extent, for several anadromous fishes in the Chesapeake Bay using different statistical downscaling methods. Sources of error from physical and biological models were quantified, and key areas of uncertainty were highlighted. Results suggested that future projections of the distribution and recruitment of species most strongly linked to freshwater flow dynamics had the highest levels of uncertainty. The sensitivity of different life stages to environmental conditions, and the population-level responses of anadromous species to climate change, were identified as important areas for further research.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

PubMed

Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

2016-09-01

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

PubMed

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

2018-10-01

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

PubMed

Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

2016-02-01

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Annual survival and recruitment in a Ruby-throated Hummingbird population, excluding the effect of transient individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilton, B.; Miller, M.W.

2003-01-01

We estimated annual apparent survival, recruitment, and rate of population growth of breeding Ruby-throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris), while controlling for transients, by using 18 years of capture-mark-recapture data collected during 1984-2001 at Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History near York, South Carolina. Resident males had lower apparent survival (0.30 +/- 0.05 SE) than females (0.43 +/- 0.04). Estimates of apparent survival did not differ by age. Point estimates suggested that newly banded males were less likely than females to be residents, but standard errors of these estimates overlapped (males: 0.60 +/- 0.14 SE; females: 0.67 +/- 0.09). Estimated female recruitment was 0.60 +/- 0.06 SE, meaning that 60% of adult females present in any given year had entered the population during the previous year. Our estimate for rate of change indicated the population of female hummingbirds was stable during the study period (1.04 +/- 0.04 SE). We suggest an annual goal of greater than or equal to 64 adult females and greater than or equal to 64 immature females released per banding area to enable rigorous future tests for effects of covariates on population dynamics. Development of a broader cooperating network of hummingbird banders in eastern North America could allow tests for regional or metapopulation dynamics in this species.

Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities.

PubMed

Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A

2015-04-01

A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated 'fitness contours' (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.

Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

PubMed

Crema, Enrico R; Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

2016-01-01

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

A Two-Year Ecological Study of Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus) in a Brazilian Urban Slum.

PubMed

Panti-May, Jesús A; Carvalho-Pereira, Ticiana S A; Serrano, Soledad; Pedra, Gabriel G; Taylor, Josh; Pertile, Arsinoê C; Minter, Amanda; Airam, Vladimir; Carvalho, Mayara; Júnior, Nivison N; Rodrigues, Gorete; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I; Childs, James E; Begon, Mike; Costa, Federico

2016-01-01

The Norway or brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) is among the most ubiquitous of rodents. However, the lack of studies describing Norway rat populations from tropical areas have limited our understanding regarding their demography and seasonal dynamics. In this study, we describe seasonal pattern in the abundance, reproductive parameters, and morphometrics of Norway rat populations in Salvador, Brazil. Rodents were trapped over four seasonal trapping periods (2013-2014) from three valleys. A total of 802 Norway rats were trapped over the course of the study over 7653 trap-nights. Norway rat abundance was high, but there was no significant differences between seasons. The reproductive parameters (e.g. frequency of pregnant and lactating females) did not show statistical differences between seasons. Female rats collected in the rainy season were heavier and older than females from the dry season. Salvador rats had a high incidence of pregnancy and birth rate (estimated birth rate of 79 young per year) compared to previous studies. The information generated is critical for the understanding of the ecology of Norway rat, the main reservoir of Leptospira in Salvador. However, future studies examining the effect of rodent control programs aimed at reducing populations, and determining rates of recovery, will further clarify our understanding of population dynamics.

Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan

PubMed Central

Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

2016-01-01

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes. PMID:27128032

ON THE RARITY OF X-RAY BINARIES WITH NAKED HELIUM DONORS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linden, T.; Valsecchi, F.; Kalogera, V.

The paucity of known high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) with naked He donor stars (hereafter He star) in the Galaxy has been noted over the years as a surprising fact, given the significant number of Galactic HMXBs containing H-rich donors, which are expected to be their progenitors. This contrast has further sharpened in light of recent observations uncovering a preponderance of HMXBs hosting loosely bound Be donors orbiting neutron stars (NSs), which would be expected to naturally evolve into He-HMXBs through dynamical mass transfer onto the NS and a common-envelope (CE) phase. Hence, reconciling the large population of Be-HMXBs with themore » observation of only one He-HMXB can help constrain the dynamics of CE physics. Here, we use detailed stellar structure and evolution models and show that binary mergers of HMXBs during CE events must be common in order to resolve the tension between these observed populations. We find that, quantitatively, this scenario remains consistent with the typically adopted energy parameterization of CE evolution, yielding expected populations which are not at odds with current observations. However, future observations which better constrain the underlying population of loosely bound O/B-NS binaries are likely to place significant constraints on the efficiency of CE ejection.« less

A Two-Year Ecological Study of Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus) in a Brazilian Urban Slum

PubMed Central

Panti-May, Jesús A.; Carvalho-Pereira, Ticiana S. A.; Serrano, Soledad; Pedra, Gabriel G.; Taylor, Josh; Pertile, Arsinoê C.; Minter, Amanda; Airam, Vladimir; Carvalho, Mayara; Júnior, Nivison N.; Rodrigues, Gorete; Reis, Mitermayer G.; Ko, Albert I.; Childs, James E.; Begon, Mike; Costa, Federico

2016-01-01

The Norway or brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) is among the most ubiquitous of rodents. However, the lack of studies describing Norway rat populations from tropical areas have limited our understanding regarding their demography and seasonal dynamics. In this study, we describe seasonal pattern in the abundance, reproductive parameters, and morphometrics of Norway rat populations in Salvador, Brazil. Rodents were trapped over four seasonal trapping periods (2013–2014) from three valleys. A total of 802 Norway rats were trapped over the course of the study over 7653 trap-nights. Norway rat abundance was high, but there was no significant differences between seasons. The reproductive parameters (e.g. frequency of pregnant and lactating females) did not show statistical differences between seasons. Female rats collected in the rainy season were heavier and older than females from the dry season. Salvador rats had a high incidence of pregnancy and birth rate (estimated birth rate of 79 young per year) compared to previous studies. The information generated is critical for the understanding of the ecology of Norway rat, the main reservoir of Leptospira in Salvador. However, future studies examining the effect of rodent control programs aimed at reducing populations, and determining rates of recovery, will further clarify our understanding of population dynamics. PMID:27015422

Culture and fertility in the Nepal Himalayas: a test of a hypothesis.

PubMed

Ross, J L

1984-01-01

In the Nepal Himalayas the Tibetan sociocultural system of fraternal polyandry (the form of marriage where 1 woman has 2 or more brothers as husbands) reduces aggregate fertility whereas Hindu marriage patterns appear to maximize fertility since there is very early and universally monogamous marriages. Over an 18-month period, reseach in the upper reaches of the Humla Distrist of northwestern Nepal focused upon 2 culturally distinct but geographically contiguous communities. 1 is Nepali speaking and high-caste Hindu; the other, Tibetan speaking and Buddhist. The 2 populations present a relatively unique natural laboratory in which several key factors (geographic, environmental and economic) are controlled. Population dynamics in these 2 communities are principally determined by patterns of fertility and mortality. A summary of a number of characteristics of the population dynamics of these 2 populations (e.g., age at 1st birth, birth interval, crude birth rate, completed fertility rate, general fertility rate, % children surviving), shows that they are more alike than dissimilar. Fertility levels between the Hindu and Tibetan population are virtually the same. While Tibetan fraternal polyandry does reduce aggregate fertility, the hypothesis that the Tibetans would have a substantially lower fertility rate than the Hindus is false, because the effects of fraternal polyandry are roughly balanced by the effects of post-widowhood celibacy among the Hindus. This study points up an important issue often overlooked in demographic analysis. Aggregate statistics such as the completed fertility rate, while important, can be deceptive, since very different factors can produce the same result at any given point in time. Diachronically, however, these underlying facotrs may change very differently. For example, fraternal poyandry is highly susceptiable to change because of the constant reevaluation of the opportunity costs associated with its practice. Anticipating the potential cause and directions of future change illustrates an important point. It is imperative in demographic analysis to elucidate the sociocultural factors underlying the reproductive performance of the populations. Culture and population dynamics are intimately intertwined in these communities.

Public health impact of disease-behavior dynamics. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Chad R.; Galvani, Alison P.

2015-12-01

In a loop of dynamic feedback, behavior such as the decision to vaccinate, hand washing, or avoidance influences the progression of the epidemic, yet behavior is driven by the individual's and population's perceived risk of infection during an outbreak. In what we believe will become a seminal paper that stimulates future research as well as an informative teaching aid, Wang et. al. comprehensively review methodological advances that have been used to incorporate human behavior into epidemiological models on the effects of coupling disease transmission and behavior on complex social networks [1]. As illustrated by the recent outbreaks of measles and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), here we highlight the importance of coupling behavior and disease transmission that Wang et al. address.

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada.

PubMed

Blanco-Pastor, J L; Fernández-Mazuecos, M; Vargas, P

2013-08-01

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine-Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human-water interactions in Colorado: Evaluating the impacts of population growth, energy development and dynamic industries on water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, Terri; Walker, Ella; Read, Laura

2016-04-01

The gap between water supply and demand is growing in the western U.S. due to climate change, rapid population growth, intensive agricultural production, wide-spread energy development and changing industrial use. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques, and innovative regulatory frameworks strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these management strategies are often difficult to quantify and are typically not included in prediction of future water allocations. Water use on the eastern slope in Colorado (Denver-Metro region) is impacted by high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, large withdrawals for agriculture, and increasing demand for recreational industries. These demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050 in the South Platte River basin, which encompasses the Denver-Metro region. The current presentation focuses on the quantification of regional sector water use utilzing a range of observations and technologies (including remote sensing) and integration into a regional decision support system. We explore scenarios of future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal/industrial sectors, and discuss the potential water allocation tradeoffs to various stakeholders. We also employ climate projections to quantify the potential range of water availability under various scenarios and observe the extent to which future climate may influence regional management decisions.

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayman, D.T.; Bowen, R.A.; Cryan, P.M.; McCracken, G.F.; O'Shea, T.J.; Peel, A.J.; Gilbert, A.; Webb, C.T.; Wood, J.L.

2013-01-01

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Ecology of Zoonotic Infectious Diseases in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Hayman, D T S; Bowen, R A; Cryan, P M; McCracken, G F; O’Shea, T J; Peel, A J; Gilbert, A; Webb, C T; Wood, J L N

2013-01-01

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics. PMID:22958281

Stride dynamics, gait variability and prospective falls risk in active community dwelling older women.

PubMed

Paterson, Kade; Hill, Keith; Lythgo, Noel

2011-02-01

Measures of walking instability such as stride dynamics and gait variability have been shown to identify future fallers in older adult populations with gait limitations or mobility disorders. This study investigated whether measures of walking instability can predict future fallers (over a prospective 12 month period) in a group of healthy and active older women. Ninety-seven healthy active women aged between 55 and 90 years walked for 7 min around a continuous walking circuit. Gait data recorded by a GAITRite(®) walkway and foot-mounted accelerometers were used to calculate measures of stride dynamics and gait variability. The participant's physical function and balance were assessed. Fall incidence was monitored over the following 12 months. Inter-limb differences (p≤0.04) in stride dynamics were found for fallers (one or more falls) aged over 70 years, and multiple fallers (two or more falls) aged over 55 years, but not in non-fallers or a combined group of single and non-fallers. No group differences were found in the measures of physical function, balance or gait, including variability. Additionally, no gait variable predicted falls. Reduced coordination of inter-limb dynamics was found in active healthy older fallers and multiple fallers despite no difference in other measures of intrinsic falls risk. Evaluating inter-limb dynamics may be a clinically sensitive technique to detect early gait instability and falls risk in high functioning older adults, prior to change in other measures of physical function, balance and gait. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can theory predict the process of suicide on entry to prison? Predicting dynamic risk factors for suicide ideation in a high-risk prison population.

PubMed

Slade, Karen; Edelman, Robert

2014-01-01

Each year approximately 110,000 people are imprisoned in England and Wales and new prisoners remain one of the highest risk groups for suicide across the world. The reduction of suicide in prisoners remains difficult as assessments and interventions tend to rely on static risk factors with few theoretical or integrated models yet evaluated. To identify the dynamic factors that contribute to suicide ideation in this population based on Williams and Pollock's (2001) Cry of Pain (CoP) model. New arrivals (N = 198) into prison were asked to complete measures derived from the CoP model plus clinical and prison-specific factors. It was hypothesized that the factors of the CoP model would be predictive of suicide ideation. Support was provided for the defeat and entrapment aspects of the CoP model with previous self-harm, repeated times in prison, and suicide-permissive cognitions also key in predicting suicide ideation for prisoners on entry to prison. An integrated and dynamic model was developed that has utility in predicting suicide in early-stage prisoners. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed along with recommendations for future research.

Elastic Multi-scale Mechanisms: Computation and Biological Evolution.

PubMed

Diaz Ochoa, Juan G

2018-01-01

Explanations based on low-level interacting elements are valuable and powerful since they contribute to identify the key mechanisms of biological functions. However, many dynamic systems based on low-level interacting elements with unambiguous, finite, and complete information of initial states generate future states that cannot be predicted, implying an increase of complexity and open-ended evolution. Such systems are like Turing machines, that overlap with dynamical systems that cannot halt. We argue that organisms find halting conditions by distorting these mechanisms, creating conditions for a constant creativity that drives evolution. We introduce a modulus of elasticity to measure the changes in these mechanisms in response to changes in the computed environment. We test this concept in a population of predators and predated cells with chemotactic mechanisms and demonstrate how the selection of a given mechanism depends on the entire population. We finally explore this concept in different frameworks and postulate that the identification of predictive mechanisms is only successful with small elasticity modulus.

Ultrafast dynamics of an unoccupied surface resonance state in B i2T e2Se

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munisa, Nurmamat; Krasovskii, E. E.; Ishida, Y.; Sumida, K.; Chen, Jiahua; Yoshikawa, T.; Chulkov, E. V.; Kokh, K. A.; Tereshchenko, O. E.; Shin, S.; Kimura, Akio

2018-03-01

Electronic structure and electron dynamics in the ternary topological insulator B i2T e2Se are studied with time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy using optical pumping. An unoccupied surface resonance split off from the bulk conduction band previously indirectly observed in scanning tunneling measurements is spectroscopically identified. Furthermore, an unoccupied topological surface state (TSS) is found, which is serendipitously located at about 1.5 eV above the occupied TSS, thereby facilitating direct optical transitions between the two surface states at ℏ ω =1.5 eV in an n -type topological insulator. An appreciable nonequilibrium population of the bottom of the bulk conduction band is observed for longer than 15 ps after the pump pulse. This leads to a long recovery time of the lower TSS, which is constantly populated by the electrons coming from the bulk conduction band. Our results demonstrate B i2T e2Se to be an ideal platform for designing future optoelectronic devices based on topological insulators.

Modelling and Control of Robotic Leg as Assistive Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jingye, Yee; Zain, Badrul Aisham bin Md

2017-10-01

The ageing population (people older than 60 years old) is expected to constitute 21.8% of global population by year 2050. When human ages, bodily function including locomotors will deteriorate. Besides, there are hundreds of thousands of victims who suffer from multiple health conditions worldwide that leads to gait impairment. A promising solution will be the lower limb powered-exoskeleton. This study is to be a start-up platform to design a lower limb powered-exoskeleton for a normal Malaysian male, by designing and simulating the dynamic model of a 2-link robotic leg to observe its behaviour under different input conditions with and without a PID controller. Simulink in MATLAB software is used as the dynamic modelling and simulation software for this study. It is observed that the 2-links robotic leg behaved differently under different input conditions, and perform the best when it is constrained and controlled by PID controller. Simulink model is formed as a foundation for the upcoming researches and can be modified and utilised by the future researchers.

The Evolving Urban Community and Military Installations: A Dynamic Spatial Decision Support System for Sustainable Military Communities

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

focus on identifying growth by income and housing costs. These, and other models are focused on the city itself and deal with growth over the course...2. This model employs a set of econometric models to project future population, household, and employment. The landscape is gridded into one... model in LEAM (LEAMecon) forecasts changes in output, employment and income over time based on changes in the market, technology, productivity and

Female mating preferences determine system-level evolution in a gene network model.

PubMed

Fierst, Janna L

2013-06-01

Environmental patterns of directional, stabilizing and fluctuating selection can influence the evolution of system-level properties like evolvability and mutational robustness. Intersexual selection produces strong phenotypic selection and these dynamics may also affect the response to mutation and the potential for future adaptation. In order to to assess the influence of mating preferences on these evolutionary properties, I modeled a male trait and female preference determined by separate gene regulatory networks. I studied three sexual selection scenarios: sexual conflict, a Gaussian model of the Fisher process described in Lande (in Proc Natl Acad Sci 78(6):3721-3725, 1981) and a good genes model in which the male trait signalled his mutational condition. I measured the effects these mating preferences had on the potential for traits and preferences to evolve towards new states, and mutational robustness of both the phenotype and the individual's overall viability. All types of sexual selection increased male phenotypic robustness relative to a randomly mating population. The Fisher model also reduced male evolvability and mutational robustness for viability. Under good genes sexual selection, males evolved an increased mutational robustness for viability. Females choosing their mates is a scenario that is sufficient to create selective forces that impact genetic evolution and shape the evolutionary response to mutation and environmental selection. These dynamics will inevitably develop in any population where sexual selection is operating, and affect the potential for future adaptation.

Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

PubMed

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

A review of infectious agents in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and their long-term ecological relevance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Anna C.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Nol, Pauline; Atwood, Todd C.; Hueffer, Karsten; Duncan, Colleen G.

2015-01-01

Disease was a listing criterion for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2008; it is therefore important to evaluate the current state of knowledge and identify any information gaps pertaining to diseases in polar bears. We conducted a systematic literature review focused on infectious agents and associated health impacts identified in polar bears. Overall, the majority of reports in free-ranging bears concerned serosurveys or fecal examinations with little to no information on associated health effects. In contrast, most reports documenting illness or pathology referenced captive animals and diseases caused by etiologic agents not representative of exposure opportunities in wild bears. As such, most of the available infectious disease literature has limited utility as a basis for development of future health assessment and management plans. Given that ecological change is a considerable risk facing polar bear populations, future work should focus on cumulative effects of multiple stressors that could impact polar bear population dynamics.

A Review of Infectious Agents in Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) and Their Long-Term Ecological Relevance.

PubMed

Fagre, Anna C; Patyk, Kelly A; Nol, Pauline; Atwood, Todd; Hueffer, Karsten; Duncan, Colleen

2015-09-01

Disease was a listing criterion for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2008; it is therefore important to evaluate the current state of knowledge and identify any information gaps pertaining to diseases in polar bears. We conducted a systematic literature review focused on infectious agents and associated health impacts identified in polar bears. Overall, the majority of reports in free-ranging bears concerned serosurveys or fecal examinations with little to no information on associated health effects. In contrast, most reports documenting illness or pathology referenced captive animals and diseases caused by etiologic agents not representative of exposure opportunities in wild bears. As such, most of the available infectious disease literature has limited utility as a basis for development of future health assessment and management plans. Given that ecological change is a considerable risk facing polar bear populations, future work should focus on cumulative effects of multiple stressors that could impact polar bear population dynamics.

Long-term economic growth stimulus of human capital preservation in the elderly

PubMed Central

Manton, Kenneth G.; Gu, Xi-Liang; Ullian, Arthur; Tolley, H. Dennis; Headen, Alvin E.; Lowrimore, Gene

2009-01-01

Health care is a crucial factor in US economic growth, because growing health care costs have made US corporations less competitive than their counterparts in countries where central governments assume most of those costs. In this paper we illustrate a second, possibly more powerful, effect of health care expenditures on the long term pace of US economic growth, i.e., that such investments in aging populations helps preserve human capital to later ages. In addition, as current investment in health care improves health and functional status, the future demand for health care as well as future health care costs will be constrained. These are crucial factors in countries experiencing rapid population aging. US labor force projections do not directly represent the effects of health care investment on the health of the future labor force, and federal health cost projections do not reflect the trajectory of health changes. Health dynamic projections suggest the effects of health care investment are large and growth stimulating. Projections done for the time period used by the Congressional Budget Office in budget mark-ups (2010–2020) are presented in the supporting information. PMID:19948950

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens.

PubMed

Norman, R A; Worton, A J; Gilbert, L

2016-06-01

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

Seasonal migration to high latitudes results in major reproductive benefits in an insect

PubMed Central

Chapman, Jason W.; Bell, James R.; Burgin, Laura E.; Reynolds, Donald R.; Pettersson, Lars B.; Hill, Jane K.; Bonsall, Michael B.; Thomas, Jeremy A.

2012-01-01

Little is known of the population dynamics of long-range insect migrants, and it has been suggested that the annual journeys of billions of nonhardy insects to exploit temperate zones during summer represent a sink from which future generations seldom return (the “Pied Piper” effect). We combine data from entomological radars and ground-based light traps to show that annual migrations are highly adaptive in the noctuid moth Autographa gamma (silver Y), a major agricultural pest. We estimate that 10–240 million immigrants reach the United Kingdom each spring, but that summer breeding results in a fourfold increase in the abundance of the subsequent generation of adults, all of which emigrate southward in the fall. Trajectory simulations show that 80% of emigrants will reach regions suitable for winter breeding in the Mediterranean Basin, for which our population dynamics model predicts a winter carrying capacity only 20% of that of northern Europe during the summer. We conclude not only that poleward insect migrations in spring result in major population increases, but also that the persistence of such species is dependent on summer breeding in high-latitude regions, which requires a fundamental change in our understanding of insect migration. PMID:22927392

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

PubMed

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

2014-03-04

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

2014-01-01

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

PubMed

Chesson, Peter

2017-05-01

The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

PubMed

García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L

2015-10-15

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Dynamic relations between fast-food restaurant and body weight status: a longitudinal and multilevel analysis of Chinese adults

PubMed Central

Xu, Hongwei; Short, Susan E; Liu, Tao

2013-01-01

Background Mixed findings have been reported on the association between Western fast-food restaurants and body weight status. Results vary across study contexts and are sensitive to the samples, measures and methods used. Most studies have failed to examine the temporally dynamic associations between community exposure to fast-food restaurants and weight changes. Methods Bayesian hierarchical regressions are used to model changes in body mass index, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR) as a function of changes in Western fast-food restaurants in 216 communities for more than 9000 Chinese adults followed up multiple times between 2000 and 2009. Results Number of Western fast-food restaurants is positively associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR among rural population. More fast-food restaurants are positively associated with a future increase in WHpR for urban women. Increased availability of fast food between two waves is related to increased WHtR for urban men over the same period. A past increase in number of fast-food restaurants is associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR for rural population. Conclusions The associations between community exposure to Western fast food and weight changes are temporally dynamic rather than static. Improved measures of exposure to community environment are needed to achieve more precise estimates and better understanding of these relationships. In light of the findings in this study and China’s rapid economic growth, further investigation and increased public health monitoring is warranted since Western fast food is likely to be more accessible and affordable in the near future. PMID:22923769

Dynamic relations between fast-food restaurant and body weight status: a longitudinal and multilevel analysis of Chinese adults.

PubMed

Xu, Hongwei; Short, Susan E; Liu, Tao

2013-03-01

Mixed findings have been reported on the association between Western fast-food restaurants and body weight status. Results vary across study contexts and are sensitive to the samples, measures and methods used. Most studies have failed to examine the temporally dynamic associations between community exposure to fast-food restaurants and weight changes. Bayesian hierarchical regressions are used to model changes in body mass index, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR) as a function of changes in Western fast-food restaurants in 216 communities for more than 9000 Chinese adults followed up multiple times between 2000 and 2009. Number of Western fast-food restaurants is positively associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR among rural population. More fast-food restaurants are positively associated with a future increase in WHpR for urban women. Increased availability of fast food between two waves is related to increased WHtR for urban men over the same period. A past increase in number of fast-food restaurants is associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR for rural population. The associations between community exposure to Western fast food and weight changes are temporally dynamic rather than static. Improved measures of exposure to community environment are needed to achieve more precise estimates and better understanding of these relationships. In light of the findings in this study and China's rapid economic growth, further investigation and increased public health monitoring is warranted since Western fast food is likely to be more accessible and affordable in the near future.

Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J.

2013-12-01

Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration.

On the rarity of X-ray binaries with Wolf-Rayet donors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linden, T.; Valsecchi, F.; Kalogera, V.

The paucity of High mass X-Ray binaries (HMXB) consisting of a neutron star (NS) accretor and Wolf-Rayet (WR) donor has long been at odds with expectations from population synthesis studies indicating that these systems should survive as the evolved offspring of the observed HMXB population. This tension is particularly troubling in light of recent observations uncovering a preponderance of HMXBs containing loosely bound Be donors which would be expected to naturally evolve into WR-HMXBs. Reconciling the unexpectedly large population of Be-HMXBs with the lack of observed WR-HMXB sources thus serves to isolate the dynamics of CE physics from other binarymore » evolution parameters. We find that binary mergers during CE events must be common in order to resolve tension between these observed populations. Furthermore, future observations which better constrain the background population of loosely bound O/B-NS binaries are likely to place significant constraints on the efficiency of CE removal.« less

Preliminary investigations of the winter ecology of Long-billed Curlews in coastal Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodin, Marc C.; Skoruppa, Mary Kay; Edwardson, Jeremy W.; Austin, Jane E.

2012-01-01

Results from this 1-year pilot study yielded an intriguing combination of findings that warrant further investigation. Observations include reduced numbers of roosting birds along the Texas coast during dry conditions, highly dynamic use of nocturnal roost sites, use of widely divergent habitat types for foraging, low body mass of most captured birds, and apparent fidelity to general feeding areas. Future investigations of this eastern winter population of curlews would benefit from larger sample sizes and monitoring of individual birds.

Towards monitoring real-time cellular response using an integrated microfluidics-MALDI/nESI-ion mobility-mass spectrometry platform

PubMed Central

Enders, Jeffrey R.; Marasco, Christina C.; Kole, Ayeeshik; Nguyen, Bao; Sundarapandian, Sevugarajan; Seale, Kevin T.; Wikswo, John P.; McLean, John A.

2014-01-01

The combination of microfluidic cell trapping devices with ion mobility-mass spectrometry offers the potential for elucidating in real time the dynamic responses of small populations of cells to paracrine signals, changes in metabolite levels, and delivery of drugs and toxins. Preliminary experiments examining peptides in methanol and recording the interactions of yeast and Jurkat cells with their superfusate have identified instrumental setup and control parameters and on-line desalting procedures. Numerous initial experiments demonstrate and validate this new instrumental platform. Future outlooks and potential applications are addressed, specifically how this instrumentation may be used for fully automated systems biology studies of the significantly interdependent, dynamic internal workings of cellular metabolic and signaling pathways. PMID:21073240

Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH.

PubMed

Camp, Emma F; Smith, David J; Evenhuis, Chris; Enochs, Ian; Manzello, Derek; Woodcock, Stephen; Suggett, David J

2016-05-25

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50-100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals (Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats. © 2016 The Author(s).

Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH

PubMed Central

Smith, David J.; Evenhuis, Chris; Enochs, Ian; Manzello, Derek; Woodcock, Stephen; Suggett, David J.

2016-01-01

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50–100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals (Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats. PMID:27194698

Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

2015-12-01

The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 indicate decreases in projected discharge and extent of inundated area on the mainstem Amazon by the late 21st century owing to influences of future climate change only.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Socioeconomic dynamics of water quality in the Egyptian Nile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Maheen; Nisar, Zainab; Karakatsanis, Georgios

2016-04-01

The Nile River remains the most important source of freshwater for Egypt as it accounts for nearly all of the country's drinking and irrigation water. About 95% of the total population is accounted to live along the Banks of the Nile(1). Therefore, water quality deterioration in addition to general natural scarcity of water in the region(2) is the main driver for carrying out this study. What further aggravates this issue is the water conflict in the Blue Nile region. The study evaluates different water quality parameters and their concentrations in the Egyptian Nile; further assessing the temporal dynamics of water quality in the area with (a) the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)(3) and (b) the Jevons Paradox (JP)(4) in order to identify water quality improvements or degradations using selected socioeconomic variables(5). For this purpose various environmental indicators including BOD, COD, DO, Phosphorus and TDS were plotted against different economic variables including Population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Annual Fresh Water Withdrawal and Improved Water Source. Mathematically, this was expressed by 2nd and 3rd degree polynomial regressions generating the EKC and JP respectively. The basic goal of the regression analysis is to model and highlight the dynamic trend of water quality indicators in relation to their established permissible limits, which will allow the identification of optimal future water quality policies. The results clearly indicate that the dependency of water quality indicators on socioeconomic variables differs for every indicator; while COD was above the permissible limits in all the cases despite of its decreasing trend in each case, BOD and phosphate signified increasing concentrations for the future, if they continue to follow the present trend. This could be an indication of rebound effect explained by the Jevons Paradox i.e. water quality deterioration after its improvement, either due to increase of population or intensification of economic activities related to these indicators. Keywords: Water quality dynamics, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Jevons Paradox (JP), economic variables, polynomial regressions, environmental indicators, permissible limit References: (1)Evans, A. (2007). River of Life River Nile. (2)Egypt's Water Crisis - Recipe for Disaster. (2016). [Blog] EcoMENA- Echoing Sustainability. (3)Alstine, J. and Neumayer, E. (2010). The Environmental Kuznets Curve. (4)Garrett, T. (2014). Rebound, Backfire, and the Jevons Paradox. [Blog] (5)Data.worldbank.org

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic and non-linear interactions among transportation, land use, and socioeconomic systems. System dynamics (SD) provides a common framework for modeling the complex interactions among transportation and other related systems. This study uses a SD model to simulate the cascading impacts of a proposed light rail transit (LRT) system in central North Carolina, USA. The Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) SD model incorporates relationships among the land use, transportation, and economy sectors to simulate the complex feedbacks that give rise to the travel behavior changes forecasted by the region’s transportation model. This paper demonstrates the sensitivity of changes in travel behavior to the proposed LRT system and the assumptions that went into the transportation modeling, and compares those results to the impacts of an alternative fare-free transit system. SD models such as the D-O LRP SD model can complement transportation studies by providing valuable insight into the interdependent community systems that collectively contribute to travel behavior changes. Presented at the 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, MA, July 18th, 2017

Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.

PubMed

Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy

2017-11-01

Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even bring metapopulation strength and persistence up to a level above the current level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

PubMed

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature.

PubMed

Neeman, Noga; Spotila, James R; O'Connor, Michael P

2015-09-07

Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival.

PubMed

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Al Mooji, Yusuf; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-02-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population-environment-development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Boosted food web productivity through ocean acidification collapses under warming.

PubMed

Goldenberg, Silvan U; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Ferreira, Camilo M; Ullah, Hadayet; Connell, Sean D

2017-10-01

Future climate is forecast to drive bottom-up (resource driven) and top-down (consumer driven) change to food web dynamics and community structure. Yet, our predictive understanding of these changes is hampered by an over-reliance on simplified laboratory systems centred on single trophic levels. Using a large mesocosm experiment, we reveal how future ocean acidification and warming modify trophic linkages across a three-level food web: that is, primary (algae), secondary (herbivorous invertebrates) and tertiary (predatory fish) producers. Both elevated CO 2 and elevated temperature boosted primary production. Under elevated CO 2 , the enhanced bottom-up forcing propagated through all trophic levels. Elevated temperature, however, negated the benefits of elevated CO 2 by stalling secondary production. This imbalance caused secondary producer populations to decline as elevated temperature drove predators to consume their prey more rapidly in the face of higher metabolic demand. Our findings demonstrate how anthropogenic CO 2 can function as a resource that boosts productivity throughout food webs, and how warming can reverse this effect by acting as a stressor to trophic interactions. Understanding the shifting balance between the propagation of resource enrichment and its consumption across trophic levels provides a predictive understanding of future dynamics of stability and collapse in food webs and fisheries production. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating species-specific suvival and movement when species identification is uncertain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, J.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2007-01-01

Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark?recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark?recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark?recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species.

Dynamical lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kankiewicz, Paweł; Włodarczyk, Ireneusz

2017-07-01

The population of known minor bodies in retrograde orbits (I > 90°) that are classified as asteroids is still growing. The aim of our study was to estimate the dynamical lifetimes of these bodies using the latest observational data, including astrometry and physical properties. We selected 25 asteroids with the best-determined orbital elements. We studied their dynamical evolution in the past and future for ±100 Myr (±1 Gyr for three particular cases). We first used orbit determination and cloning to produce swarms of test particles. These swarms were then input into long-term numerical integrations, and the orbital elements were averaged. Next, we collected the available thermal properties of our objects and we used them in an enhanced dynamical model with Yarkovsky forces. We also used a gravitational model for comparison. Finally, we estimated the median lifetimes of 25 asteroids. We found three objects whose retrograde orbits were stable with a dynamical lifetime τ ˜ 10-100 Myr. A large portion of the objects studied displayed smaller values of τ (τ ˜ 1 Myr). In addition, we studied the possible influence of the Yarkovsky effect on our results. We found that the Yarkovsky effect can have a significant influence on the lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits. Because of the presence of this effect, it is possible that the median lifetimes of these objects are extended. Additionally, the changes in orbital elements, caused by Yarkovsky forces, appear to depend on the integration direction. To explain this more precisely, the same model based on new physical parameters, determined from future observations, will be required.

Applications of bioenergetics models to fish ecology and management: where do we go from here?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Boisclair, Daniel; Brandt, Stephen B.; Hewett, Steven W.; Kitchell, James F.; Lucas, Martyn C.; Ney, John J.

1993-01-01

Papers and panel discussions given during a 1992 symposium on bioenergetics models are summarized. Bioenergetics models have been applied to a variety of research and management questions related to fish stocks, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. Applications include estimates of the intensity and dynamics of predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling within aquatic food webs of varying trophic structure, and food requirements of single animals, whole populations, and communities of fishes. As tools in food web and ecosystem applications, bioenergetics models have been used to compare forage consumption by salmonid predators across the Laurentian Great Lakes for single populations and whole communities, and to estimate the growth potential of pelagic predators in Chesapeake Bay and Lake Ontario. Some critics say that bioenergetics models lack sufficient detail to produce reliable results in such field applications, whereas others say that the models are too complex to be useful tools for fishery managers. Nevertheless, bioenergetics models have achieved notable predictive successes. Improved estimates are needed for model parameters such as metabolic costs of activity, and more complete studies are needed of the bioenergetics of larval and juvenile fishes. Future research on bioenergetics should include laboratory and field measurements of key model parameters such as weight-dependent maximum consumption, respiration and activity, and thermal habitats actually occupied by fish. Future applications of bioenergetics models to fish populations also depend on accurate estimates of population sizes and survival rates.

Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

PubMed

de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L; Chauke, Lucas F; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L; Hoelzel, A Rus

2009-07-01

Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

Stochastic analysis of future vehicle populations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-05-01

The purpose of this study was to build a stochastic model of future vehicle populations. Such a model can be used to investigate the uncertainties inherent in Future Vehicle Populations. The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Sto...

Modeling the effects of land use and climate change on riverine smallmouth bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Kwak, T.J.

1999-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in temperature and stream flow, associated with watershed land use and climate change, are critical influences on the distribution and abundance of riverine fishes. To project the effects of changing land use and climate, we modeled a smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) population in a midwestern USA, large river- floodplain ecosystem under historical (1915-1925), present (1977-1990), and future (2060, influenced by climate change) temperature and flow regimes. The age-structured model included parameters for temperature and river discharge during critical seasonal periods, fish population dynamics, and fishing harvest. Model relationships were developed from empirical field data collected over a 13-yr period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that discharge during the spawning/rearing period had a greater effect on adult density and fishing yield than did spawning/rearing temperature or winter discharge. Simulations for 100 years projected a 139% greater mean fish density under a historical flow regime (64.9 fish/ha) than that estimated for the present (27.1 fish/ha) with a sustainable fishing harvest under both flow regimes. Simulations under future climate-change-induced temperature and flow regimes with present land use projected a 69% decrease in mean fish density (8.5 fish/ha) from present and an unstable population that went extinct during 56% of the simulations. However, when simulated under a future climate-altered temperature and flow regime with historical land use, the population increased by 66% (45.0 fish/ha) from present and sustained a harvest. Our findings suggest that land-use changes may be a greater detriment to riverine fishes than projected climate change and that the combined effects of both factors may lead to local species extinction. However, the negative effects of increased temperature and precipitation associated with future global warming could be mitigated by river channel, floodplain, and watershed restoration.

Reinforcement Learning of Two-Joint Virtual Arm Reaching in a Computer Model of Sensorimotor Cortex

PubMed Central

Neymotin, Samuel A.; Chadderdon, George L.; Kerr, Cliff C.; Francis, Joseph T.; Lytton, William W.

2014-01-01

Neocortical mechanisms of learning sensorimotor control involve a complex series of interactions at multiple levels, from synaptic mechanisms to cellular dynamics to network connectomics. We developed a model of sensory and motor neocortex consisting of 704 spiking model neurons. Sensory and motor populations included excitatory cells and two types of interneurons. Neurons were interconnected with AMPA/NMDA and GABAA synapses. We trained our model using spike-timing-dependent reinforcement learning to control a two-joint virtual arm to reach to a fixed target. For each of 125 trained networks, we used 200 training sessions, each involving 15 s reaches to the target from 16 starting positions. Learning altered network dynamics, with enhancements to neuronal synchrony and behaviorally relevant information flow between neurons. After learning, networks demonstrated retention of behaviorally relevant memories by using proprioceptive information to perform reach-to-target from multiple starting positions. Networks dynamically controlled which joint rotations to use to reach a target, depending on current arm position. Learning-dependent network reorganization was evident in both sensory and motor populations: learned synaptic weights showed target-specific patterning optimized for particular reach movements. Our model embodies an integrative hypothesis of sensorimotor cortical learning that could be used to interpret future electrophysiological data recorded in vivo from sensorimotor learning experiments. We used our model to make the following predictions: learning enhances synchrony in neuronal populations and behaviorally relevant information flow across neuronal populations, enhanced sensory processing aids task-relevant motor performance and the relative ease of a particular movement in vivo depends on the amount of sensory information required to complete the movement. PMID:24047323

Persistence and Change in Community Composition of Reef Corals through Present, Past, and Future Climates

PubMed Central

Edmunds, Peter J.; Adjeroud, Mehdi; Baskett, Marissa L.; Baums, Iliana B.; Budd, Ann F.; Carpenter, Robert C.; Fabina, Nicholas S.; Fan, Tung-Yung; Franklin, Erik C.; Gross, Kevin; Han, Xueying; Jacobson, Lianne; Klaus, James S.; McClanahan, Tim R.; O'Leary, Jennifer K.; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.; Pochon, Xavier; Putnam, Hollie M.; Smith, Tyler B.; Stat, Michael; Sweatman, Hugh; van Woesik, Robert; Gates, Ruth D.

2014-01-01

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past. PMID:25272143

Cognitive algorithms: dynamic logic, working of the mind, evolution of consciousness and cultures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlovsky, Leonid I.

2007-04-01

The paper discusses evolution of consciousness driven by the knowledge instinct, a fundamental mechanism of the mind which determines its higher cognitive functions. Dynamic logic mathematically describes the knowledge instinct. It overcomes past mathematical difficulties encountered in modeling intelligence and relates it to mechanisms of concepts, emotions, instincts, consciousness and unconscious. The two main aspects of the knowledge instinct are differentiation and synthesis. Differentiation is driven by dynamic logic and proceeds from vague and unconscious states to more crisp and conscious states, from less knowledge to more knowledge at each hierarchical level of the mind. Synthesis is driven by dynamic logic operating in a hierarchical organization of the mind; it strives to achieve unity and meaning of knowledge: every concept finds its deeper and more general meaning at a higher level. These mechanisms are in complex relationship of symbiosis and opposition, which leads to complex dynamics of evolution of consciousness and cultures. Modeling this dynamics in a population leads to predictions for the evolution of consciousness, and cultures. Cultural predictive models can be compared to experimental data and used for improvement of human conditions. We discuss existing evidence and future research directions.

Mitochondrial dynamics in Parkinson's disease

PubMed Central

Van Laar, Victor S.; Berman, Sarah B.

2009-01-01

The unique energy demands of neurons require well-orchestrated distribution and maintenance of mitochondria. Thus, dynamic properties of mitochondria, including fission, fusion, trafficking, biogenesis, and degradation, are critical to all cells, but may be particularly important in neurons. Dysfunction in mitochondrial dynamics has been linked to neuropathies and is increasingly being linked to several neurodegenerative diseases, but the evidence is particularly strong, and continuously accumulating, in Parkinson's disease (PD). The unique characteristics of neurons that degenerate in PD may predispose those neuronal populations to susceptibility to alterations in mitochondrial dynamics. In addition, evidence from PD-related toxins supports that mitochondrial fission, fusion, and transport may be involved in pathogenesis. Furthermore, rapidly increasing evidence suggests that two proteins linked to familial forms of the disease, parkin and PINK1, interact in a common pathway to regulate mitochondrial fission/fusion. Parkin may also play a role in maintaining mitochondrial homeostasis through targeting damaged mitochondria for mitophagy. Taken together, the current data suggests that mitochondrial dynamics may play a role in PD pathogenesis, and a better understanding of mitochondrial dynamics within the neuron may lead to future therapeutic treatments for PD, potentially aimed at some of the earliest pathogenic events. PMID:19332061

Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Montane Amphibians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corn, S.

2002-05-01

Breeding phenology of amphibians in inextricably linked to weather, and change in the timing of breeding resulting from climate change may have consequences for the fitness of individuals and may affect persistence of amphibian populations. Amphibians in some north temperate locations have been observed to breed earlier in recent years in response to warmer spring temperatures, but this is not a universal phenomenon. In mountain populations, phenology is influenced by snow deposition as much as temperature. A trend towards earlier breeding, associated with increasing El Niño frequency, may be occurring in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon, but only at lower elevations. There is no evidence for changes in the dates of breeding activity by amphibians in the Rocky Mountains. Too few amphibian species have been studied, and those for which data exist have been studied for too brief a span of years to allow general conclusions about the effects of climate change. However, regardless of whether climate change has contributed to current amphibian declines, changes in temperature and the extent and duration of snow cover predicted for the next century will have increasingly severe consequences for the persistence of some species. Additional observations from amphibian populations, and spatial and temporal modeling of climate variables are needed to generate predictions of past and future breeding phenology, and the effects on amphibian population dynamics.

History of On-orbit Satellite Fragmentations (14th Edition)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.; Stansbery, Eugene; Whitlock, David O.; Abercromby, Kira J.; Shoots, Debra

2008-01-01

Since the first serious satellite fragmentation occurred in June 1961 (which instantaneously increased the total Earth satellite population by more than 400%) the issue of space operations within the finite region of space around the Earth has been the subject of increasing interest and concern. The prolific satellite fragmentations of the 1970s and the marked increase in the number of fragmentations in the 1980s served to widen international research into the characteristics and consequences of such events. Continued events in all orbits in later years make definition and historical accounting of those events crucial to future research. Large, manned space stations and the growing number of operational robotic satellites demand a better understanding of the hazards of the dynamic Earth satellite population.

Genetic Population Structure of Local Populations of the Endangered Saltmarsh Sesarmid Crab Clistocoeloma sinense in Japan

PubMed Central

Yuhara, Takeshi; Kawane, Masako; Furota, Toshio

2014-01-01

During recent decades, over 40% of Japanese estuarine tidal flats have been lost due to coastal developments. Local populations of the saltmarsh sesarmid crab Clistocoeloma sinense, designated as an endangered species due to the limited suitable saltmarsh habitat available, have decreased accordingly, being now represented as small remnant populations. Several such populations in Tokyo Bay, have been recognised as representing distributional limits of the species. To clarify the genetic diversity and connectivity among local coastal populations of Japanese Clistocoeloma sinense, including those in Tokyo Bay, mitochondrial DNA analyses were conducted in the hope of providing fundamental information for future conservation studies and an understanding of metapopulation dynamics through larval dispersal among local populations. All of the populations sampled indicated low levels of genetic diversity, which may have resulted from recent population bottlenecks or founder events. However, the results also revealed clear genetic differentiation between two enclosed-water populations in Tokyo Bay and Ise-Mikawa Bay, suggesting the existence of a barrier to larval transport between these two water bodies. Since the maintenance of genetic connectivity is a requirement of local population stability, the preservation of extant habitats and restoration of saltmarshes along the coast of Japan may be the most effective measures for conservation of this endangered species. PMID:24400112

A model of population dynamics of TB in a prison system and application to South Africa.

PubMed

Witbooi, Peter; Vyambwera, Sibaliwe Maku

2017-11-29

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to spread in South African prisons in particular, as prisons are over-capacitated and have poor ventilation. The awaiting trial detainees are not screened on admission and are at high risk of getting infected with TB. We propose a compartmental model to describe the population dynamics of TB disease in prisons. Our model considers the inflow of susceptible, exposed and TB infectives into the prison population. Removal of individuals out of the prison population can be either by death or by being released from prison, as compared to a general population in which removal is only by death. We describe conditions, including non-inflow of infectives into the prison, which will ensure that TB can be eradicated from the prison population. The model is calibrated for the South African prison system, by using data in existing literature. The model can be used to make quantitative projections of TB prevalence and to measure the effect of interventions. Illustrative simulations in this regard are presented. The model can be used for other prison populations too, if data is available to calculate the model parameters. Various simulations generated with our model serve to illustrate how it can be utilized in making future projections of the levels of prevalence of TB, and to quantify the effect of interventions such as screening, treatment or reduction of transmission parameter values through improved living conditions for inmates. This makes it particularly useful as there are various targets set by the World Health Organization and by governments, for reduction of TB prevalence and ultimately its eradication. Towards eradication of TB from a prison system, the theorem on global stability of the disease-free state is a useful indicator.

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change.

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai'i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

The Extinction of Dengue through Natural Vulnerability of Its Vectors

PubMed Central

Williams, Craig R.; Bader, Christie A.; Kearney, Michael R.; Ritchie, Scott A.; Russell, Richard C.

2010-01-01

Background Dengue is the world's most important mosquito-borne viral illness. Successful future management of this disease requires an understanding of the population dynamics of the vector, especially in the context of changing climates. Our capacity to predict future dynamics is reflected in our ability to explain the significant historical changes in the distribution and abundance of the disease and its vector. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we combine daily weather records with simulation modelling techniques to explain vector (Aedes aegypti (L.)) persistence within its current and historic ranges in Australia. We show that, in regions where dengue presently occurs in Australia (the Wet Tropics region of Far North Queensland), conditions are persistently suitable for year-round adult Ae. aegypti activity and oviposition. In the historic range, however, the vector is vulnerable to periodic extinction due to the combined influence of adult activity constraints and stochastic loss of suitable oviposition sites. Conclusions/Significance These results, together with changes in water-storage behaviour by humans, can explain the observed historical range contraction of the disease vector. For these reasons, future eradication of dengue in wet tropical regions will be extremely difficult through classical mosquito control methods alone. However, control of Ae. aegypti in sub-tropical and temperate regions will be greatly facilitated by government policy regulating domestic water-storage. Exploitation of the natural vulnerabilities of dengue vectors (e.g., habitat specificity, climatic limitations) should be integrated with the emerging novel transgenic and symbiotic bacterial control techniques to develop future control and elimination strategies. PMID:21200424

Cancer in light of experimental evolution.

PubMed

Sprouffske, Kathleen; Merlo, Lauren M F; Gerrish, Philip J; Maley, Carlo C; Sniegowski, Paul D

2012-09-11

Cancer initiation, progression, and the emergence of therapeutic resistance are evolutionary phenomena of clonal somatic cell populations. Studies in microbial experimental evolution and the theoretical work inspired by such studies are yielding deep insights into the evolutionary dynamics of clonal populations, yet there has been little explicit consideration of the relevance of this rapidly growing field to cancer biology. Here, we examine how the understanding of mutation, selection, and spatial structure in clonal populations that is emerging from experimental evolution may be applicable to cancer. Along the way, we discuss some significant ways in which cancer differs from the model systems used in experimental evolution. Despite these differences, we argue that enhanced prediction and control of cancer may be possible using ideas developed in the context of experimental evolution, and we point out some prospects for future research at the interface between these traditionally separate areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bibliometric Analysis on Cancer Population Science with Topic Modeling.

PubMed

Li, Ding-Cheng; Rastegar-Mojarad, Majid; Okamoto, Janet; Liu, Hongfang; Leichow, Scott

2015-01-01

Bibliometric analysis is a research method used in library and information science to evaluate research performance. It applies quantitative and statistical analyses to describe patterns observed in a set of publications and can help identify previous, current, and future research trends or focus. To better guide our institutional strategic plan in cancer population science, we conducted bibliometric analysis on publications of investigators currently funded by either Division of Cancer Preventions (DCP) or Division of Cancer Control and Population Science (DCCPS) at National Cancer Institute. We applied two topic modeling techniques: author topic modeling (AT) and dynamic topic modeling (DTM). Our initial results show that AT can address reasonably the issues related to investigators' research interests, research topic distributions and popularities. In compensation, DTM can address the evolving trend of each topic by displaying the proportion changes of key words, which is consistent with the changes of MeSH headings.

Cancer in Light of Experimental Evolution

PubMed Central

Sprouffske, Kathleen; Merlo, Lauren M.F.; Gerrish, Philip J.; Maley, Carlo C.; Sniegowski, Paul D.

2012-01-01

Cancer initiation, progression, and the emergence of therapeutic resistance are evolutionary phenomena of clonal somatic cell populations. Studies in microbial experimental evolution and the theoretical work inspired by such studies are yielding deep insights into the evolutionary dynamics of clonal populations, yet there has been little explicit consideration of the relevance of this rapidly growing field to cancer biology. Here, we examine how the understanding of mutation, selection, and spatial structure in clonal populations that is emerging from experimental evolution may be applicable to cancer. Along the way, we discuss some significant ways in which cancer differs from the model systems used in experimental evolution. Despite these differences, we argue that enhanced prediction and control of cancer may be possible using ideas developed in the context of experimental evolution, and we point out some prospects for future research at the interface between these traditionally separate areas. PMID:22975007

The Value of Information for Populations in Varying Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivoire, Olivier; Leibler, Stanislas

2011-04-01

The notion of information pervades informal descriptions of biological systems, but formal treatments face the problem of defining a quantitative measure of information rooted in a concept of fitness, which is itself an elusive notion. Here, we present a model of population dynamics where this problem is amenable to a mathematical analysis. In the limit where any information about future environmental variations is common to the members of the population, our model is equivalent to known models of financial investment. In this case, the population can be interpreted as a portfolio of financial assets and previous analyses have shown that a key quantity of Shannon's communication theory, the mutual information, sets a fundamental limit on the value of information. We show that this bound can be violated when accounting for features that are irrelevant in finance but inherent to biological systems, such as the stochasticity present at the individual level. This leads us to generalize the measures of uncertainty and information usually encountered in information theory.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urbanization in China: Historical and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Eom, J.; Yu, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2014-12-01

One way humans affect the Earth is by clearing lands and building cities, a process intricately coupled with population growth. The transformation of terrestrial environments by urbanization has been accelerating during the past 30 years. China, for instance, has experienced urbanization at an unprecedented rate, with the urban population increasing from ~20% to 50% between 1980 and 2010. This urban expansion has resulted in a range of environmental and socioeconomic consequences, such as released carbon, reduced habitats, and threatened biodiversity. Improved information on historical and future urbanization is essential to understand these environmental effects, and to promote a sustainable urbanization in China. Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion in China by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model (three examples in Figure 1). With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored annual urban growth at the province level and urban sprawl at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The results of this study will be of great value with practical implications for a sustainable urbanization (e.g. mitigation of urban heat island).

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Madej, Mary Ann; Reichmuth, Michael; Fong, Darren

2014-01-01

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks, flows, and converters. Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

Monogenean parasites from fishes of the Vaal Dam, Gauteng Province, South Africa. I. Winter survey versus summer survey comparison from Labeo capensis (Smith, 1841) and Labeo umbratus (Smith, 1841) hosts.

PubMed

Crafford, Dionne; Luus-Powell, Wilmien; Avenant-Oldewage, Annemariè

2014-03-01

Indigenous South African Labeo spp. show promise with regard to development of semi-intensive aquaculture, yet little research on their monogenean fauna has been conducted. Ecological aspects of monogenean fauna of the moggel Labeo umbratus (Smith 1841) and the Orange River mudfish Labeo capensis (Smith 1841), as recorded during both winter and summer sampling surveys, are reported here. Fish were collected using gill nets, euthanized and gills removed and examined to both quantify parasite numbers and distribution on the gills. Results obtained support the hypothesis that gill site preference is not due to active choice for a particular attachment site, but rather a result of water flow over gills during respiration in conjunction with fish behaviour and habitat use. Interaction between individual elements investigated (temperature effects, parasite population dynamics and host population dynamics) may be largely responsible for seasonal differences in infection statistics of monogenean parasites. Such interactions should be investigated in future large scale ecological studies, in combination with experimental studies, to further elucidate these effects.

The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Lillycrop, Jeff W.; Howd, Peter A.; Wozencraft, Jennifer M.

2007-01-01

The evolution of the United States' coastal zone response to both human activities and natural processes is dynamic. Coastal resource and population protection requires understanding, in detail, the processes needed for change as well as the physical setting. Sustained coastal area mapping allows change to be documented and baseline conditions to be established, as well as future behavior to be predicted in conjunction with physical process models. Hyperspectral imagers and airborne lidars, as well as other recent mapping technology advances, allow rapid national scale land use information and high-resolution elevation data collection. Coastal hazard risk evaluation has critical dependence on these rich data sets. A fundamental storm surge model parameter in predicting flooding location, for example, is coastal elevation data, and a foundation in identifying the most vulnerable populations and resources is land use maps. A wealth of information for physical change process study, coastal resource and community management and protection, and coastal area hazard vulnerability determination, is available in a comprehensive national coastal mapping plan designed to take advantage of recent mapping technology progress and data distribution, management, and collection.

Can an ankle-foot orthosis change hearts and minds?

PubMed

Patzkowski, Jeanne C; Blanck, Ryan V; Owens, Johnny G; Wilken, Jason M; Blair, James A; Hsu, Joseph R

2011-01-01

The current military conflicts of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom have been characterized by high-energy explosive wounding patterns, with the majority affecting the extremities. While many injuries have resulted in amputation, surgical advances have allowed the orthopaedic surgeon to pursue limb salvage in the face of injuries once considered unsalvageable. The military limb salvage patient is frequently highly active and motivated and expresses significant frustration with the slow nature of limb salvage rehabilitation and continued functional deficits. Inspired by these patients, efforts at this institution began to provide them with a more dynamic orthosis. Utilizing techniques and technology resulting from cerebral palsy, stroke, and amputation research, the Intrepid Dynamic Exoskeletal Orthosis was created. To date, this device has significantly improved the functional capabilities of the limb salvage wounded warrior population when combined with a high-intensity rehabilitation program. Clinical and biomechanical research is currently underway at this institution in order to fully characterize the device, its effect on patients, and what can be done to modify future generations of the device to best serve the combat-wounded limb salvage population.

Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies.

PubMed

Streicker, Daniel G; Winternitz, Jamie C; Satterfield, Dara A; Condori-Condori, Rene Edgar; Broos, Alice; Tello, Carlos; Recuenco, Sergio; Velasco-Villa, Andrés; Altizer, Sonia; Valderrama, William

2016-09-27

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.

Placental immune state shifts with gestational age.

PubMed

Lewis, Emma L; Sierra, Luz-Jeannette; Barila, Guillermo O; Brown, Amy G; Porrett, Paige M; Elovitz, Michal A

2018-06-01

Placental immunologic functions are implicated in both the maintenance of a healthy pregnancy and the pathogenesis of obstetric complications. Immune populations at the maternal-fetal interface are hypothesized to support fetomaternal tolerance, defend the fetus from infection, and contribute to labor initiation. Despite the many potential roles of placental immune cells in normal and abnormal pregnancy, little is known about placental immune population dynamics over gestation, particularly near parturition. A daily placental immune cell census was established in a murine model by flow cytometry from mid to late gestation and compared to the maternal systemic immune census. Shifts in the placental immune state were further characterized through cytokine ELISAs. The placental immune census is distinct from the maternal systemic immune census, although the cells are primarily maternal in origin. Near term parturition, the placenta contains fewer CD11c-positive myeloid cells and regulatory T cells, and there is a concurrent decrease in placental IL-9 and IL-35. The immune profile of the placenta demonstrates a decrease in both regulatory immune cell types and cytokines late in gestation. Establishing the placental immune population dynamics over a healthy pregnancy will allow future investigation of placental immune cells during abnormal pregnancy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Genome-Wide Analyses on Our Understanding of Human Herpesvirus Diversity and Evolution.

PubMed

Renner, Daniel W; Szpara, Moriah L

2018-01-01

Until fairly recently, genome-wide evolutionary dynamics and within-host diversity were more commonly examined in the context of small viruses than in the context of large double-stranded DNA viruses such as herpesviruses. The high mutation rates and more compact genomes of RNA viruses have inspired the investigation of population dynamics for these species, and recent data now suggest that herpesviruses might also be considered candidates for population modeling. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) and bioinformatics have expanded our understanding of herpesviruses through genome-wide comparisons of sequence diversity, recombination, allele frequency, and selective pressures. Here we discuss recent data on the mechanisms that generate herpesvirus genomic diversity and underlie the evolution of these virus families. We focus on human herpesviruses, with key insights drawn from veterinary herpesviruses and other large DNA virus families. We consider the impacts of cell culture on herpesvirus genomes and how to accurately describe the viral populations under study. The need for a strong foundation of high-quality genomes is also discussed, since it underlies all secondary genomic analyses such as RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq), chromatin immunoprecipitation, and ribosome profiling. Areas where we foresee future progress, such as the linking of viral genetic differences to phenotypic or clinical outcomes, are highlighted as well. Copyright © 2017 Renner and Szpara.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Host–pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies

PubMed Central

Streicker, Daniel G.; Winternitz, Jamie C.; Satterfield, Dara A.; Condori-Condori, Rene Edgar; Broos, Alice; Tello, Carlos; Recuenco, Sergio; Velasco-Villa, Andrés; Altizer, Sonia; Valderrama, William

2016-01-01

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions. PMID:27621441

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

Filoviruses in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Olival, Kevin J.; Hayman, David T. S.

2014-01-01

Filoviruses, including Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus, pose significant threats to public health and species conservation by causing hemorrhagic fever outbreaks with high mortality rates. Since the first outbreak in 1967, their origins, natural history, and ecology remained elusive until recent studies linked them through molecular, serological, and virological studies to bats. We review the ecology, epidemiology, and natural history of these systems, drawing on examples from other bat-borne zoonoses, and highlight key areas for future research. We compare and contrast results from ecological and virological studies of bats and filoviruses with those of other systems. We also highlight how advanced methods, such as more recent serological assays, can be interlinked with flexible statistical methods and experimental studies to inform the field studies necessary to understand filovirus persistence in wildlife populations and cross-species transmission leading to outbreaks. We highlight the need for a more unified, global surveillance strategy for filoviruses in wildlife, and advocate for more integrated, multi-disciplinary approaches to understand dynamics in bat populations to ultimately mitigate or prevent potentially devastating disease outbreaks. PMID:24747773

Long-term spatial heterogeneity in mallard distribution in the Prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Janke, Adam K.; Anteau, Michael J.; Stafford, Joshua D.

2017-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of north-central United States and south-central Canada supports greater than half of all breeding mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) annually counted in North America and is the focus of widespread conservation and research efforts. Allocation of conservation resources for this socioeconomically important population would benefit from an understanding of the nature of spatiotemporal variation in distribution of breeding mallards throughout the 850,000 km2 landscape. We used mallard counts from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey to test for spatial heterogeneity and identify high- and low-abundance regions of breeding mallards over a 50-year time series. We found strong annual spatial heterogeneity in all years: 90% of mallards counted annually were on an average of only 15% of surveyed segments. Using a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation, we found a relatively static distribution of low-count clusters in northern Montana, USA, and southern Alberta, Canada, and a dynamic distribution of high-count clusters throughout the study period. Distribution of high-count clusters shifted southeast from northwestern portions of the PPR in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, Canada, to North and South Dakota, USA, during the latter half of the study period. This spatial redistribution of core mallard breeding populations was likely driven by interactions between environmental variation that created favorable hydrological conditions for wetlands in the eastern PPR and dynamic land-use patterns related to upland cropping practices and government land-retirement programs. Our results highlight an opportunity for prioritizing relatively small regions within the PPR for allocation of wetland and grassland conservation for mallard populations. However, the extensive spatial heterogeneity in core distributions over our study period suggests such spatial prioritization will have to overcome challenges presented by dynamic land-use and climate patterns in the region, and thus merits additional monitoring and empirical research to anticipate future population distribution. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi-scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartley, Stephen; Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Lester, Philip J.

2010-01-01

Mechanistic models for predicting species’ distribution patterns present particular advantages and challenges relative to models developed from statistical correlations between distribution and climate. They can be especially useful for predicting the range of invasive species whose distribution has not yet reached equilibrium. Here, we illustrate how a physiological model of development for the invasive Argentine ant can be connected to differences in micro-site suitability, population dynamics and climatic gradients; processes operating at quite different spatial scales. Our study is located in the subalpine shrubland of Haleakala National Park, Hawaii, where the spread of Argentine ants Linepithema humile has been documented for the past twenty-five years. We report four main results. First, at a microsite level, the accumulation of degree-days recorded in potential ant nest sites under bare ground or rocks was significantly greater than under a groundcover of grassy vegetation. Second, annual degree-days measured where population boundaries have not expanded (456-521 degree-days), were just above the developmental requirements identified from earlier laboratory studies (445 degree-days above 15.98C). Third, rates of population expansion showed a strong linear relationship with annual degree-days. Finally, an empirical relationship between soil degree-days and climate variables mapped at a broader scale predicts the potential for future range expansion of Argentine ants at Haleakala, particularly to the west of the lower colony and the east of the upper colony. Variation in the availability of suitable microsites, driven by changes in vegetation cover and ultimately climate, provide a hierarchical understanding of the distribution of Argentine ants close to their cold-wet limit of climatic tolerances. We conclude that the integration of physiology, population dynamics and climate mapping holds much promise for making more robust predictions about the potential spread of invasive species.

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage Bremset; Aanes, Ronny; Herfindal, Ivar; Kohler, Jack; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

Using binary statistics in Taurus-Auriga to distinguish between brown dwarf formation processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, M.; Martín, E. L.; Béjar, V. J. S.; Lodieu, N.; Kroupa, P.; Manjavacas, E.; Thies, I.; Rebolo López, R.; Velasco, S.

2017-08-01

Context. One of the key questions of the star formation problem is whether brown dwarfs (BDs) form in the manner of stars directly from the gravitational collapse of a molecular cloud core (star-like) or whether BDs and some very low-mass stars (VLMSs) constitute a separate population that forms alongside stars comparable to the population of planets, for example through circumstellar disk (peripheral) fragmentation. Aims: For young stars in Taurus-Auriga the binary fraction has been shown to be large with little dependence on primary mass above ≈ 0.2 M⊙, while for BDs the binary fraction is < 10%. Here we investigate a case in which BDs in Taurus formed dominantly, but not exclusively, through peripheral fragmentation, which naturally results in small binary fractions. The decline of the binary frequency in the transition region between star-like formation and peripheral formation is modelled. Methods: We employed a dynamical population synthesis model in which stellar binary formation is universal with a large binary fraction close to unity. Peripheral objects form separately in circumstellar disks with a distinctive initial mass function (IMF), their own orbital parameter distributions for binaries, and small binary fractions, according to observations and expectations from smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and grid-based computations. A small amount of dynamical processing of the stellar component was accounted for as appropriate for the low-density Taurus-Auriga embedded clusters. Results: The binary fraction declines strongly in the transition region between star-like and peripheral formation, exhibiting characteristic features. The location of these features and the steepness of this trend depend on the mass limits for star-like and peripheral formation. Such a trend might be unique to low density regions, such as Taurus, which host binary populations that are largely unprocessed dynamically in which the binary fraction is large for stars down to M-dwarfs and small for BDs. Conclusions: The existence of a strong decline in the binary fraction - primary mass diagram will become verifiable in future surveys on BD and VLMS binarity in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region. The binary fraction - primary mass diagram is a diagnostic of the (non-)continuity of star formation along the mass scale, the separateness of the stellar and BD populations, and the dominant formation channel for BDs and BD binaries in regions of low stellar density hosting dynamically unprocessed populations.

A Culture-Behavior-Brain Loop Model of Human Development.

PubMed

Han, Shihui; Ma, Yina

2015-11-01

Increasing evidence suggests that cultural influences on brain activity are associated with multiple cognitive and affective processes. These findings prompt an integrative framework to account for dynamic interactions between culture, behavior, and the brain. We put forward a culture-behavior-brain (CBB) loop model of human development that proposes that culture shapes the brain by contextualizing behavior, and the brain fits and modifies culture via behavioral influences. Genes provide a fundamental basis for, and interact with, the CBB loop at both individual and population levels. The CBB loop model advances our understanding of the dynamic relationships between culture, behavior, and the brain, which are crucial for human phylogeny and ontogeny. Future brain changes due to cultural influences are discussed based on the CBB loop model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural dynamics technology research in NASA: Perspective on future needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The perspective of a NASA ad hoc study group on future research needs in structural dynamics within the aerospace industry is presented. The common aspects of the design process across the industry are identified and the role of structural dynamics is established through a discussion of various design considerations having their basis in structural dynamics. The specific structural dynamics issues involved are identified and assessed as to their current technological status and trends. Projections of future requirements based on this assessment are made and areas of research to meet them are identified.

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

An agent-based model of tsetse fly response to seasonal climatic drivers: Assessing the impact on sleeping sickness transmission rates.

PubMed

Alderton, Simon; Macleod, Ewan T; Anderson, Neil E; Palmer, Gwen; Machila, Noreen; Simuunza, Martin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics. The seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches. In producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse and evaluate specific elements of the output, such as pupal development and the progression of the teneral population, allowing the development of our understanding of the tsetse population as a whole. This is an important step in the production of a more accurate transmission model for rHAT which can, in turn, help us to gain a greater understanding of the transmission system as a whole.

Vitamin K status in chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

McCabe, Kristin M; Adams, Michael A; Holden, Rachel M

2013-11-07

The purpose of this review is to summarize the research to date on vitamin K status in chronic kidney disease (CKD). This review includes a summary of the data available on vitamin K status in patients across the spectrum of CKD as well as the link between vitamin K deficiency in CKD and bone dynamics, including mineralization and demineralization, as well as ectopic mineralization. It also describes two current clinical trials that are underway evaluating vitamin K treatment in CKD patients. These data may inform future clinical practice in this population.

Ecological and evolutionary conditions for fruit abortion to regulate pollinating seed-eaters and increase plant production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2002-01-01

Coevolved mutualisms, such as those between senita cacti, yuccas, and their respective obligate pollinators, benefit both species involved in the interaction. However, in these pollination mutualisms the pollinator's larvae impose a cost on plants through consumption of developing seeds and fruit. The effects of pollinators on benefits and costs are expected to vary with the abundance of pollinators, because large population sizes result in more eggs and larval seed-eaters. Here, we develop the hypothesis that fruit abortion, which is common in yucca, senita, and plants in general, could in some cases have the function of limiting pollinator abundance and, thereby, increasing fruit production. Using a general steady-state model of fruit production and pollinator dynamics, we demonstrate that plants involved in pollinating seed-eater mutualisms can increase their fecundity by randomly aborting fruit. We show that the ecological conditions under which fruit abortion can improve plants fecundity are not unusual. They are best met when the plant is long-lived, the population dynamics of the pollinator are much faster than those of the plant, the loss of one fruit via abortion kills a larva that would have the expectation of destroying more than one fruit through its future egg laying as an adult moth, and the effects of fruit abortion on pollinator abundance are spatially localized. We then use the approach of adaptive dynamics to find conditions under which a fruit abortion strategy based on regulating the pollinator population could feasibly evolve in this type of plant–pollinator interaction.

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Mellin, Camille; Russell, Bayden D; Akçakaya, Reşit H; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Caley, Julian M; Connell, Sean D; Mayfield, Stephen; Shepherd, Scoresby A; Brook, Barry W

2013-10-01

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

Preference limits of the visual dynamic range for ultra high quality and aesthetic conveyance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, Scott; Kunkel, Timo; Sun, Xing; Farrell, Suzanne; Crum, Poppy

2013-03-01

A subjective study was conducted to investigate the preferred maximum and minimum display luminances in order to determine the dynamic ranges for future displays. Two studies address the diffuse reflective regions, and a third study tested preferences of highlight regions. Preferences, as opposed to detection thresholds, were studied to provide results more directly relevant to the viewing of entertainment or art. Test images were specifically designed to test these limits without the perceptual conflicts that usually occur in these types of studies. For the diffuse range, we found a display with a dynamic range having luminances between 0.1 and 650 cd/m2 matches the average preferences. However, to satisfy 90% of the population, a dynamic range from 0.005 and ~3,000 cd/m2 is needed. Since a display should be able to produce values brighter than the diffuse white maximum, as in specular highlights and emissive sources, the highlight study concludes that even the average preferred maximum luminance for highlight reproduction is ~4,000 cd/m2.

DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics †

PubMed Central

de Lima, Tiago França Melo; Lana, Raquel Martins; de Senna Carneiro, Tiago Garcia; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Machado, Gabriel Souza; Ferreira, Lucas Saraiva; de Castro Medeiros, Líliam César; Davis Junior, Clodoveu Augusto

2016-01-01

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability. PMID:27649226

Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

2013-09-01

Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our opinion, the continued development of biophysical models that close the life cycle (depict all life stages) offers the best chance of revealing processes causing historical fluctuations on the productivity and distribution of small pelagic fishes and to project future climate-driven impacts. Correctly representing physiological-based mechanisms will increase confidence in the outcomes of models simulating the potential impacts of bottom-up processes, a first step towards evaluating the mixture of factors and processes (e.g. intra-guild dynamics, predation, fisheries exploitation) which interact with climate to affect populations of small pelagic fishes. Understand the impacts of reduced growth rates during the juvenile stage on the process of maturation and spawning condition of small pelagic fishes. Examine the effects of changes in prey quality on the duration and magnitude of spawning by small pelagic fishes to capture how climate-driven changes in zooplankton species composition might act as a “bottom-up” regulator of fish productivity. Identify the drivers for spawning location and timing to better understand how spawning dynamics may be influenced by climate change (e.g. changes in water salinity or turbidity resulting from changes in river discharges or wind-driven turbulence, respectively).

Towards an initial mass function for giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Daniel; Davies, Melvyn B.; Johansen, Anders

2018-07-01

The distribution of exoplanet masses is not primordial. After the initial stage of planet formation, gravitational interactions between planets can lead to the physical collision of two planets, or the ejection of one or more planets from the system. When this occurs, the remaining planets are typically left in more eccentric orbits. In this report we demonstrate how the present-day eccentricities of the observed exoplanet population can be used to reconstruct the initial mass function of exoplanets before the onset of dynamical instability. We developed a Bayesian framework that combines data from N-body simulations with present-day observations to compute a probability distribution for the mass of the planets that were ejected or collided in the past. Integrating across the exoplanet population, one can estimate the initial mass function of exoplanets. We find that the ejected planets are primarily sub-Saturn-type planets. While the present-day distribution appears to be bimodal, with peaks around ˜1MJ and ˜20M⊕, this bimodality does not seem to be primordial. Instead, planets around ˜60M⊕ appear to be preferentially removed by dynamical instabilities. Attempts to reproduce exoplanet populations using population synthesis codes should be mindful of the fact that the present population may have been depleted of sub-Saturn-mass planets. Future observations may reveal that young giant planets have a more continuous size distribution with lower eccentricities and more sub-Saturn-type planets. Lastly, there is a need for additional data and for more research on how the system architecture and multiplicity might alter our results.

Toward an initial mass function for giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Daniel; Davies, Melvyn B.; Johansen, Anders

2018-05-01

The distribution of exoplanet masses is not primordial. After the initial stage of planet formation, gravitational interactions between planets can lead to the physical collision of two planets, or the ejection of one or more planets from the system. When this occurs, the remaining planets are typically left in more eccentric orbits. In this report we demonstrate how the present-day eccentricities of the observed exoplanet population can be used to reconstruct the initial mass function of exoplanets before the onset of dynamical instability. We developed a Bayesian framework that combines data from N-body simulations with present-day observations to compute a probability distribution for the mass of the planets that were ejected or collided in the past. Integrating across the exoplanet population, one can estimate the initial mass function of exoplanets. We find that the ejected planets are primarily sub-Saturn type planets. While the present-day distribution appears to be bimodal, with peaks around ˜1MJ and ˜20M⊕, this bimodality does not seem to be primordial. Instead, planets around ˜60M⊕ appear to be preferentially removed by dynamical instabilities. Attempts to reproduce exoplanet populations using population synthesis codes should be mindful of the fact that the present population may have been been depleted of sub-Saturn-mass planets. Future observations may reveal that young giant planets have a more continuous size distribution with lower eccentricities and more sub-Saturn type planets. Lastly, there is a need for additional data and for more research on how the system architecture and multiplicity might alter our results.

Ocean-wide Drivers of Migration Strategies and Their Influence on Population Breeding Performance in a Declining Seabird.

PubMed

Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Diamond, Antony; Erikstad, Kjell E; Fifield, Dave; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G; Hansen, Erpur S; Harris, Mike P; Jessopp, Mark; Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee; Kress, Steve; Mowat, Stephen; Perrins, Chris M; Petersen, Aevar; Petersen, Ib K; Reiertsen, Tone K; Robertson, Gregory J; Shannon, Paula; Sigurðsson, Ingvar A; Shoji, Akiko; Wanless, Sarah; Guilford, Tim

2017-12-18

Which factors shape animals' migration movements across large geographical scales, how different migratory strategies emerge between populations, and how these may affect population dynamics are central questions in the field of animal migration [1] that only large-scale studies of migration patterns across a species' range can answer [2]. To address these questions, we track the migration of 270 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, a red-listed, declining seabird, across their entire breeding range. We investigate the role of demographic, geographical, and environmental variables in driving spatial and behavioral differences on an ocean-basin scale by measuring puffins' among-colony differences in migratory routes and day-to-day behavior (estimated with individual daily activity budgets and energy expenditure). We show that competition and local winter resource availability are important drivers of migratory movements, with birds from larger colonies or with poorer local winter conditions migrating further and visiting less-productive waters; this in turn led to differences in flight activity and energy expenditure. Other behavioral differences emerge with latitude, with foraging effort and energy expenditure increasing when birds winter further north in colder waters. Importantly, these ocean-wide migration patterns can ultimately be linked with breeding performance: colony productivity is negatively associated with wintering latitude, population size, and migration distance, which demonstrates the cost of competition and migration on future breeding and the link between non-breeding and breeding periods. Our results help us to understand the drivers of animal migration and have important implications for population dynamics and the conservation of migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying selection in evolving populations using time-resolved genetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illingworth, Christopher J. R.; Mustonen, Ville

2013-01-01

Methods which uncover the molecular basis of the adaptive evolution of a population address some important biological questions. For example, the problem of identifying genetic variants which underlie drug resistance, a question of importance for the treatment of pathogens, and of cancer, can be understood as a matter of inferring selection. One difficulty in the inference of variants under positive selection is the potential complexity of the underlying evolutionary dynamics, which may involve an interplay between several contributing processes, including mutation, recombination and genetic drift. A source of progress may be found in modern sequencing technologies, which confer an increasing ability to gather information about evolving populations, granting a window into these complex processes. One particularly interesting development is the ability to follow evolution as it happens, by whole-genome sequencing of an evolving population at multiple time points. We here discuss how to use time-resolved sequence data to draw inferences about the evolutionary dynamics of a population under study. We begin by reviewing our earlier analysis of a yeast selection experiment, in which we used a deterministic evolutionary framework to identify alleles under selection for heat tolerance, and to quantify the selection acting upon them. Considering further the use of advanced intercross lines to measure selection, we here extend this framework to cover scenarios of simultaneous recombination and selection, and of two driver alleles with multiple linked neutral, or passenger, alleles, where the driver pair evolves under an epistatic fitness landscape. We conclude by discussing the limitations of the approach presented and outlining future challenges for such methodologies.

Rapid Response of a Marine Mammal Species to Holocene Climate and Habitat Change

PubMed Central

de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L.; Chauke, Lucas F.; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L.; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2009-01-01

Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500–8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population ∼8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at ∼1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, ∼7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available. PMID:19593366

Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

2009-08-31

Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future researchers.

Quantifying the Impact of Woodpecker Predation on Population Dynamics of the Emerald Ash Borer (Agrilus planipennis)

PubMed Central

Jennings, David E.; Gould, Juli R.; Vandenberg, John D.; Duan, Jian J.; Shrewsbury, Paula M.

2013-01-01

The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae) affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers. PMID:24349520

Quantifying the impact of woodpecker predation on population dynamics of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis).

PubMed

Jennings, David E; Gould, Juli R; Vandenberg, John D; Duan, Jian J; Shrewsbury, Paula M

2013-01-01

The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae) affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers.

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE: Interdisciplinary Science for Disaster Resilience and Sustainability of Populations Surrounding Vesuvius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobran, F.

2015-12-01

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE is an elaboration of VESUVIUS 2000 scientific initiative aimed at volcanic risk reduction in the Vesuvius area. Its 5 building blocks are: (1) The current strategy of volcanic risk management (massive deportation of population) is both problematic and unacceptable. (2) A continuing close habitation of the population with the volcano should be the crucial cultural point to be pursued. This can be accomplished through a redefinition of the danger zone around Summa-Vesuvius as follows: (a) An exclusion nucleus should be established that prohibits all future human settlements and discourage the existing ones; (b) A resilience belt, housing most of the current population, should be established; (c) A sustainable area should be established beyond the resilience belt, allowing for both sustainable practices and temporary resettlements of the "resilience belt" citizens. (3) The built environment construction codes for the population of the danger zone should be established by utilizing Plinian eruption scenarios, scenario-based seismic hazard assessment and zonation, (c) dynamic structural analyses, (d) global volcanic simulations modeling of thermo-fluid dynamic eruption processes. (4) The volcanic risk information and education should involve an effective volcanic risk information campaign and active public preparedness strategy. This should be implemented for the exclusion nucleus, resilience belt, and sustainable area regions surrounding Summa-Vesuvius. A Volcanic Risk Education Safety Program should be implemented in all schools located within each of the above areas surrounding the volcano. (5)The political Authorities and the scientific community should produce a "memorandum of understanding" that univocally establishes an effective collaboration, and periodic progress reports that keep the populations informed on the improvements leading to the realization of the above objectives. For further details see www.gvess.org.

Alterations in microbial community composition with increasing fCO2: a mesocosm study in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawfurd, Katharine J.; Alvarez-Fernandez, Santiago; Mojica, Kristina D. A.; Riebesell, Ulf; Brussaard, Corina P. D.

2017-08-01

Ocean acidification resulting from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) by the ocean is considered a major threat to marine ecosystems. Here we examined the effects of ocean acidification on microbial community dynamics in the eastern Baltic Sea during the summer of 2012 when inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus were strongly depleted. Large-volume in situ mesocosms were employed to mimic present, future and far future CO2 scenarios. All six groups of phytoplankton enumerated by flow cytometry ( < 20 µm cell diameter) showed distinct trends in net growth and abundance with CO2 enrichment. The picoeukaryotic phytoplankton groups Pico-I and Pico-II displayed enhanced abundances, whilst Pico-III, Synechococcus and the nanoeukaryotic phytoplankton groups were negatively affected by elevated fugacity of CO2 (fCO2). Specifically, the numerically dominant eukaryote, Pico-I, demonstrated increases in gross growth rate with increasing fCO2 sufficient to double its abundance. The dynamics of the prokaryote community closely followed trends in total algal biomass despite differential effects of fCO2 on algal groups. Similarly, viral abundances corresponded to prokaryotic host population dynamics. Viral lysis and grazing were both important in controlling microbial abundances. Overall our results point to a shift, with increasing fCO2, towards a more regenerative system with production dominated by small picoeukaryotic phytoplankton.

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Pettorelli, Nathalie; Vik, Jon Olav; Mysterud, Atle; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Tucker, Compton J; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-09-01

Assessing how environmental changes affect the distribution and dynamics of vegetation and animal populations is becoming increasingly important for terrestrial ecologists to enable better predictions of the effects of global warming, biodiversity reduction or habitat degradation. The ability to predict ecological responses has often been hampered by our rather limited understanding of trophic interactions. Indeed, it has proven difficult to discern direct and indirect effects of environmental change on animal populations owing to limited information about vegetation at large temporal and spatial scales. The rapidly increasing use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecological studies has recently changed this situation. Here, we review the use of the NDVI in recent ecological studies and outline its possible key role in future research of environmental change in an ecosystem context.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities.

PubMed

Kwok, Kin On; Read, Jonathan M; Tang, Arthur; Chen, Hong; Riley, Steven; Kam, Kai Man

2018-04-18

Non-hospital residential facilities are important reservoirs for MRSA transmission. However, conclusions and public health implications drawn from the many mathematical models depicting nosocomial MRSA transmission may not be applicable to these settings. Therefore, we reviewed the MRSA transmission dynamics studies in defined non-hospital residential facilities to: (1) provide an overview of basic epidemiology which has been addressed; (2) identify future research direction; and (3) improve future model implementation. A review was conducted by searching related keywords in PUBMED without time restriction as well as internet searches via Google search engine. We included only articles describing the epidemiological transmission pathways of MRSA/community-associated MRSA within and between defined non-hospital residential settings. Among the 10 included articles, nursing homes (NHs) and correctional facilities (CFs) were two settings considered most frequently. Importation of colonized residents was a plausible reason for MRSA outbreaks in NHs, where MRSA was endemic without strict infection control interventions. The importance of NHs over hospitals in increasing nosocomial MRSA prevalence was highlighted. Suggested interventions in NHs included: appropriate staffing level, screening and decolonizing, and hand hygiene. On the other hand, the small population amongst inmates in CFs has no effect on MRSA community transmission. Included models ranged from system-level compartmental models to agent-based models. There was no consensus over the course of disease progression in these models, which were mainly featured with NH residents /CF inmates/ hospital patients as transmission pathways. Some parameters used by these models were outdated or unfit. Importance of NHs has been highlighted from these current studies addressing scattered aspects of MRSA epidemiology. However, the wide variety of non-hospital residential settings suggest that more work is needed before robust conclusions can be drawn. Learning from existing work for hospitals, we identified critical future research direction in this area from infection control, ecological and economic perspectives. From current model deficiencies, we suggest more transmission pathways be specified to depict MRSA transmission, and further empirical studies be stressed to support evidence-based mathematical models of MRSA in non-hospital facilities. Future models should be ready to cope with the aging population structure.

Exciton Dynamics in Monolayer Transition Metal Dichalcogenides.

PubMed

Moody, Galan; Schaibley, John; Xu, Xiaodong

2016-07-01

Since the discovery of semiconducting monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides, a variety of experimental and theoretical studies have been carried out seeking to understand the intrinsic exciton population recombination and valley relaxation dynamics. Reports of the exciton decay time range from hundreds of femtoseconds to ten nanoseconds, while the valley depolarization time can exceed one nanosecond. At present, however, a consensus on the microscopic mechanisms governing exciton radiative and non-radiative recombination is lacking. The strong exciton oscillator strength resulting in up to ~ 20% absorption for a single monolayer points to ultrafast radiative recombination. However, the low quantum yield and large variance in the reported lifetimes suggest that non-radiative Auger-type processes obscure the intrinsic exciton radiative lifetime. In either case, the electron-hole exchange interaction plays an important role in the exciton spin and valley dynamics. In this article, we review the experiments and theory that have led to these conclusions and comment on future experiments that could complement our current understanding.

Exciton Dynamics in Monolayer Transition Metal Dichalcogenides

PubMed Central

Moody, Galan; Schaibley, John; Xu, Xiaodong

2017-01-01

Since the discovery of semiconducting monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides, a variety of experimental and theoretical studies have been carried out seeking to understand the intrinsic exciton population recombination and valley relaxation dynamics. Reports of the exciton decay time range from hundreds of femtoseconds to ten nanoseconds, while the valley depolarization time can exceed one nanosecond. At present, however, a consensus on the microscopic mechanisms governing exciton radiative and non-radiative recombination is lacking. The strong exciton oscillator strength resulting in up to ~ 20% absorption for a single monolayer points to ultrafast radiative recombination. However, the low quantum yield and large variance in the reported lifetimes suggest that non-radiative Auger-type processes obscure the intrinsic exciton radiative lifetime. In either case, the electron-hole exchange interaction plays an important role in the exciton spin and valley dynamics. In this article, we review the experiments and theory that have led to these conclusions and comment on future experiments that could complement our current understanding. PMID:28890600

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

PubMed Central

Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

PubMed

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

PGG.Population: a database for understanding the genomic diversity and genetic ancestry of human populations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chao; Gao, Yang; Liu, Jiaojiao; Xue, Zhe; Lu, Yan; Deng, Lian; Tian, Lei; Feng, Qidi

2018-01-01

Abstract There are a growing number of studies focusing on delineating genetic variations that are associated with complex human traits and diseases due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. However, identifying and prioritizing disease-associated causal variants relies on understanding the distribution of genetic variations within and among populations. The PGG.Population database documents 7122 genomes representing 356 global populations from 107 countries and provides essential information for researchers to understand human genomic diversity and genetic ancestry. These data and information can facilitate the design of research studies and the interpretation of results of both evolutionary and medical studies involving human populations. The database is carefully maintained and constantly updated when new data are available. We included miscellaneous functions and a user-friendly graphical interface for visualization of genomic diversity, population relationships (genetic affinity), ancestral makeup, footprints of natural selection, and population history etc. Moreover, PGG.Population provides a useful feature for users to analyze data and visualize results in a dynamic style via online illustration. The long-term ambition of the PGG.Population, together with the joint efforts from other researchers who contribute their data to our database, is to create a comprehensive depository of geographic and ethnic variation of human genome, as well as a platform bringing influence on future practitioners of medicine and clinical investigators. PGG.Population is available at https://www.pggpopulation.org. PMID:29112749

Exploring the dynamic links between microbial ecology and redox state of the hyporheic zone: insight from flume experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, M.; Cardenas, M. B.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Cook, P. L. M.; Kessler, A. J.

2016-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) provides key ecosystem services such as heavy metal sequestration, nutrient uptake and consumption, and habitat for a diverse collection of ecologically and commercially important species. Microbes are responsible for many of the chemical transformations in the HZ. These microbe populations are intimately linked to redox conditions, and recent work has shown that redox conditions in the HZ can be highly dynamic. Here we investigate the dynamic coupling between surface flow conditions, hyporheic redox conditions, and the hyporheic microbiome. Our window into this world is a large experimental flume (5m x 0.7m x 0.3m), prepared and incubated in a way that is relatively common to hyporheic zone research, without a strong attempt to impose a specific microbial community structure. We use computer-controlled flow combined with sand bedforms within the flume to generate a pattern of oxic and anoxic sediment zones, from which we collected sediment and water samples. Dissolved oxygen was mapped with a large planar optode. The samples were analyzed for microbial community composition through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compare the population structure between oxic and anoxic zones, showing that the presence of oxygen in the HZ is a strong predictor of microbial composition. Additionally, we compare both the oxic and anoxic community structure from the flume to those of samples taken from natural environments, showing both interesting similarities and differences. In the future, we plan to use time-series sampling to observe the response times of microbial communities subjected to dynamic surface channel flow and redox conditions. This work will yield greater understanding of the role that dynamic rivers play in microbe-provided ecosystem services.

Temperature-altered predator-prey dynamics in freshwater ponds in Arctic Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culler, L. E.; Ayres, M.

2011-12-01

Temperature sets the pace of many biological processes including species interactions. Describing the response of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to climate warming therefore requires studies of cross-trophic level dynamics. I use freshwater pond ecosystems in Arctic Greenland to study how the thermal environment shapes interactions between predators and their prey. This system is of interest because warming trends are notable, freshwaters are responding rapidly and dynamically to changes in temperature, and the biology of freshwaters is intimately linked to the terrestrial environment. My focal species are the Arctic mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae, Aedes nigripes) and its invertebrate predator, a predaceous diving beetle (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae, Colymbetes dolabratus). Both species develop as larvae in snow-melt ponds in May and June. I used experimental and observational studies to test effects of temperature on larval mosquito growth rates and predation rates by C. dolabratus. Results indicate strong effects of temperature on growth rate and development time but weak effects of temperature on consumption of mosquitoes by their predators. Incorporation of measured temperature response functions into a mosquito demographic model will elucidate how mosquito population dynamics in Arctic Greenland may change with temperature. For example, warming increases growth rate and decreases development time of mosquito larvae, which shortens the time larvae are exposed to predation. Additionally, decreased development time leads to an earlier mosquito emergence, with potential consequences for the health of wildlife. Evaluation of this model will reveal the importance of considering cross-trophic level dynamics when predicting mosquito population response to warming. Future studies will address interesting properties emerging from modeling, such as how shorter development time affects adult size and fitness, and connecting results to terrestrial systems in Arctic Greenland.

Exploring the dynamic links between microbial ecology and redox state of the hyporheic zone: insight from flume experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, M.; Cardenas, M. B.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Cook, P. L. M.; Kessler, A. J.

2017-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) provides key ecosystem services such as heavy metal sequestration, nutrient uptake and consumption, and habitat for a diverse collection of ecologically and commercially important species. Microbes are responsible for many of the chemical transformations in the HZ. These microbe populations are intimately linked to redox conditions, and recent work has shown that redox conditions in the HZ can be highly dynamic. Here we investigate the dynamic coupling between surface flow conditions, hyporheic redox conditions, and the hyporheic microbiome. Our window into this world is a large experimental flume (5m x 0.7m x 0.3m), prepared and incubated in a way that is relatively common to hyporheic zone research, without a strong attempt to impose a specific microbial community structure. We use computer-controlled flow combined with sand bedforms within the flume to generate a pattern of oxic and anoxic sediment zones, from which we collected sediment and water samples. Dissolved oxygen was mapped with a large planar optode. The samples were analyzed for microbial community composition through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compare the population structure between oxic and anoxic zones, showing that the presence of oxygen in the HZ is a strong predictor of microbial composition. Additionally, we compare both the oxic and anoxic community structure from the flume to those of samples taken from natural environments, showing both interesting similarities and differences. In the future, we plan to use time-series sampling to observe the response times of microbial communities subjected to dynamic surface channel flow and redox conditions. This work will yield greater understanding of the role that dynamic rivers play in microbe-provided ecosystem services.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Metapopulation dynamics and future persistence of epiphytic cyanolichens in a European boreal forest ecosystem

PubMed Central

Fedrowitz, Katja; Kuusinen, Mikko; Snäll, Tord

2012-01-01

1. One approach to biodiversity conservation is to set aside small woodland key habitats (WKHs) in intensively managed landscapes. The aim is to support species, such as epiphytes, which often depend on old trees and are negatively affected by intensive forestry. However, it is not known whether the number of host trees within these areas can sustain species in the long term. 2. We studied metapopulation dynamics and assessed the future persistence of epiphytes assuming host tree numbers similar to those observed in large north European WKHs. The study species were seven cyanolichens confined to Populus tremula in the boreal study area. Colonizations and extinctions were recorded in 2008 on trees that had been surveyed 13 years earlier. We applied generalized (non)linear models to test the importance of environmental conditions, facilitation and spatial connectivity on the metapopulation dynamics. We also simulated the effects of tree numbers and tree fall rates on future species persistence. 3. Metapopulation dynamics were explained by tree quality, size or tree fall. In one species, colonizations increased with increasing connectivity, and in a second species it increased if other lichens sharing the photobiont with the focal species were present, suggesting facilitation. Both stochastic extinctions from standing trees and deterministic extinctions caused by tree fall should be accounted for in projecting epiphyte metapopulation dynamics. 4. One to three infrequent, sexually dispersed study species face a significant extinction risk within 50 years, especially in areas with low tree numbers. 5. Synthesis and applications. During the coming decades, infrequent, sexually dispersed, epiphytic lichens are likely to be lost from small woodland habitat set asides in intensively managed landscapes. Local extinction will be a consequence of low colonization rates and tree fall. Low colonization rates can be prevented by retaining large trees on which lichen species colonization rates are the highest and by assuring a high density of occupied trees. The negative effect of tree fall should be compensated for by assuring continuous availability of old trees. This can be achieved by decreasing the populations of large browsers, or by retaining trees with high conservation value during management operations. PMID:22745512

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

DOE PAGES

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; ...

2015-03-27

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use formore » the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.« less

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

PubMed Central

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Coleman, Blair N.; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

2015-01-01

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability. PMID:25815840

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

PubMed

Vugrin, Eric D; Rostron, Brian L; Verzi, Stephen J; Brodsky, Nancy S; Brown, Theresa J; Choiniere, Conrad J; Coleman, Blair N; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J

2015-01-01

Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiao, Y.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.; Murphy, B.R.

2009-01-01

Models of species' demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species' native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species' demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use formore » the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.« less

Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model.

PubMed

Lipp, Erin K; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R

2002-10-01

Recently, the role of the environment and climate in disease dynamics has become a subject of increasing interest to microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, and ecologists. Much of the interest has been stimulated by the growing problems of antibiotic resistance among pathogens, emergence and/or reemergence of infectious diseases worldwide, the potential of bioterrorism, and the debate concerning climate change. Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, lends itself to analyses of the role of climate in infectious disease, coupled to population dynamics of pathogenic microorganisms, for several reasons. First, the disease has a historical context linking it to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in the environment are strongly controlled by environmental factors, such as water temperature, salinity, and the presence of copepods, which are, in turn, controlled by larger-scale climate variability. In this review, the association between plankton and V. cholerae that has been documented over the last 20 years is discussed in support of the hypothesis that cholera shares properties of a vector-borne disease. In addition, a model for environmental transmission of cholera to humans in the context of climate variability is presented. The cholera model provides a template for future research on climate-sensitive diseases, allowing definition of critical parameters and offering a means of developing more sophisticated methods for prediction of disease outbreaks.

Comparative Analysis of the Gut Microbial Communities in Forest and Alpine Musk Deer Using High-Throughput Sequencing

PubMed Central

Hu, Xiaolong; Liu, Gang; Shafer, Aaron B. A.; Wei, Yuting; Zhou, Juntong; Lin, Shaobi; Wu, Haibin; Zhou, Mi; Hu, Defu; Liu, Shuqiang

2017-01-01

The gut ecosystem is characterized by dynamic and reciprocal interactions between the host and bacteria. Although characterizing microbiota for herbivores has become recognized as important tool for gauging species health, no study to date has investigated the bacterial communities and evaluated the age-related bacterial dynamics of musk deer. Moreover, gastrointestinal diseases have been hypothesized to be a limiting factor of population growth in captive musk deer. Here, high-throughput sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene was used to profile the fecal bacterial communities in juvenile and adult alpine and forest musk deer. The two musk deer species harbored similar bacterial communities at the phylum level, whereas the key genera for the two species were distinct. The bacterial communities were dominated by Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes, with the bacterial diversity being higher in forest musk deer. The Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes ratio also increased from juvenile to adult, while the bacterial diversity, within-group and between-group similarity, all increased with age. This work serves as the first sequence-based analysis of variation in bacterial communities within and between musk deer species, and demonstrates how the gut microbial community dynamics vary among closely related species and shift with age. As gastrointestinal diseases have been observed in captive populations, this study provides valuable data that might benefit captive management and future reintroduction programs. PMID:28421061

A signature of dynamic biogeography: enclaves indicate past species replacement.

PubMed

Wielstra, B; Burke, T; Butlin, R K; Arntzen, J W

2017-12-13

Understanding how species have replaced each other in the past is important to predicting future species turnover. While past species replacement is difficult to detect after the fact, the process may be inferred from present-day distribution patterns. Species with abutting ranges sometimes show a characteristic distribution pattern, where a section of one species range is enveloped by that of the other. Such an enclave could indicate past species replacement: when a species is partly supplanted by a competitor, but a population endures locally while the invading species moves around and past it, an enclave forms. If the two species hybridize and backcross, the receding species is predicted to leave genetic traces within the expanding one under a scenario of species replacement. By screening dozens of genes in hybridizing crested newts, we uncover genetic remnants of the ancestral species, now inhabiting an enclave, in the range of the surrounding invading species. This independent genetic evidence supports the past distribution dynamics we predicted from the enclave. We suggest that enclaves provide a valuable tool in understanding historical species replacement, which is important because a major conservation concern arising from anthropogenic climate change is increased species replacement in the future. © 2017 The Authors.

An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

Modeling Social Capital as Dynamic Networks to Promote Access to Oral Healthcare

PubMed Central

Northridge, Mary E.; Kunzel, Carol; Zhang, Qiuyi; Kum, Susan S.; Gilbert, Jessica L.; Jin, Zhu; Metcalf, Sara S.

2016-01-01

Social capital, as comprised of human connections in social networks and their associated benefits, is closely related to the health of individuals, communities, and societies at large. For disadvantaged population groups such as older adults and racial/ethnic minorities, social capital may play a particularly critical role in mitigating the negative effects and reinforcing the positive effects on health. In this project, we model social capital as both cause and effect by simulating dynamic networks. Informed in part by a community-based health promotion program, an agent-based model is contextualized in a GIS environment to explore the complexity of social disparities in oral and general health as experienced at the individual, interpersonal, and community scales. This study provides the foundation for future work investigating how health and healthcare accessibility may be influenced by social networks. PMID:27668298

Modeling Social Capital as Dynamic Networks to Promote Access to Oral Healthcare.

PubMed

Wang, Hua; Northridge, Mary E; Kunzel, Carol; Zhang, Qiuyi; Kum, Susan S; Gilbert, Jessica L; Jin, Zhu; Metcalf, Sara S

2016-01-01

Social capital, as comprised of human connections in social networks and their associated benefits, is closely related to the health of individuals, communities, and societies at large. For disadvantaged population groups such as older adults and racial/ethnic minorities, social capital may play a particularly critical role in mitigating the negative effects and reinforcing the positive effects on health. In this project, we model social capital as both cause and effect by simulating dynamic networks. Informed in part by a community-based health promotion program, an agent-based model is contextualized in a GIS environment to explore the complexity of social disparities in oral and general health as experienced at the individual, interpersonal, and community scales. This study provides the foundation for future work investigating how health and healthcare accessibility may be influenced by social networks.

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Petersen, Margaret; Rockwell, Robert F.

2016-01-01

Spectacled eider Somateria fischeri numbers have declined and they are considered threatened in accordance with the US Endangered Species Act throughout their range. We synthesized the available information for spectacled eiders to construct deterministic, stochastic, and metapopulation models for this species that incorporated current estimates of vital rates such as nest success, adult survival, and the impact of lead poisoning on survival. Elasticities of our deterministic models suggested that the populations would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival and that the reductions in adult female survival related to lead poisoning were locally important. We also examined the sensitivity of the population to changes in lead exposure rates. With the knowledge that some vital rates vary with environmental conditions, we cast stochastic models that mimicked observed variation in productivity. We also used the stochastic model to examine the probability that a specific population will persist for periods of up to 50 y. Elasticity analysis of these models was consistent with that for the deterministic models, with perturbations to adult female survival having the greatest effect on population projections. When used in single population models, demographic data for some localities predicted rapid declines that were inconsistent with our observations in the field. Thus, we constructed a metapopulation model and examined the predictions for local subpopulations and the metapopulation over a wide range of dispersal rates. Using the metapopulation model, we were able to simulate the observed stability of local subpopulations as well as that of the metapopulation. Finally, we developed a global metapopulation model that simulates periodic winter habitat limitation, similar to that which might be experienced in years of heavy sea ice in the core wintering area of spectacled eiders in the central Bering Sea. Our metapopulation analyses suggested that no subpopulation is independent and that future management actions may be improved through a metapopulation framework. For example, management actions could include displacement of breeding females from"sink" areas that reduce the growth potential of the population as a whole. However, this action is contingent upon dispersal among local populations, for which there is limited information. Thus, we recommend that researchers examine dispersal behavior among areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. The metapopulation framework could also be applied at the rangewide scale to address the density-dependent limitation of available polynya habitat during winter that may limit the recovery of small subpopulations, such as that on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Reductions in other subpopulations may be necessary to ensure an increase in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta population. Thus, we recommend that managers consider the interpopulation dynamics of spectacled eiders at different spatial scales in future management actions.

Dissipative dynamics at conical intersections: simulations with the hierarchy equations of motion method.

PubMed

Chen, Lipeng; Gelin, Maxim F; Chernyak, Vladimir Y; Domcke, Wolfgang; Zhao, Yang

2016-12-16

The effect of a dissipative environment on the ultrafast nonadiabatic dynamics at conical intersections is analyzed for a two-state two-mode model chosen to represent the S 2 (ππ*)-S 1 (nπ*) conical intersection in pyrazine (the system) which is bilinearly coupled to infinitely many harmonic oscillators in thermal equilibrium (the bath). The system-bath coupling is modeled by the Drude spectral function. The equation of motion for the reduced density matrix of the system is solved numerically exactly with the hierarchy equation of motion method using graphics-processor-unit (GPU) technology. The simulations are valid for arbitrary strength of the system-bath coupling and arbitrary bath memory relaxation time. The present computational studies overcome the limitations of weak system-bath coupling and short memory relaxation time inherent in previous simulations based on multi-level Redfield theory [A. Kühl and W. Domcke, J. Chem. Phys. 2002, 116, 263]. Time evolutions of electronic state populations and time-dependent reduced probability densities of the coupling and tuning modes of the conical intersection have been obtained. It is found that even weak coupling to the bath effectively suppresses the irregular fluctuations of the electronic populations of the isolated two-mode conical intersection. While the population of the upper adiabatic electronic state (S 2 ) is very efficiently quenched by the system-bath coupling, the population of the diabatic ππ* electronic state exhibits long-lived oscillations driven by coherent motion of the tuning mode. Counterintuitively, the coupling to the bath can lead to an enhanced lifetime of the coherence of the tuning mode as a result of effective damping of the highly excited coupling mode, which reduces the strong mode-mode coupling inherent to the conical intersection. The present results extend previous studies of the dissipative dynamics at conical intersections to the nonperturbative regime of system-bath coupling. They pave the way for future first-principles simulations of femtosecond time-resolved four-wave-mixing spectra of chromophores in condensed phases which are nonperturbative in the system dynamics, the system-bath coupling as well as the field-matter coupling.

Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non-forest species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Zipkin, Elise F.; Dhondt, Andre A.

2010-01-01

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6.Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal and inter-patch matrix habitats to identify which species within a community are likely to be impacted most by habitat loss and fragmentation. This model can be applied to other taxa (i.e. amphibians, mammals and insects) to estimate species and community occurrence dynamics in response to current environmental conditions and to make predictions in response to future changes in habitat configurations.

The Future of Stellar Populations Studies in the Milky Way and the Local Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majewski, Steven R.

2010-04-01

The last decade has seen enormous progress in understanding the structure of the Milky Way and neighboring galaxies via the production of large-scale digital surveys of the sky like 2MASS and SDSS, as well as specialized, counterpart imaging surveys of other Local Group systems. Apart from providing snaphots of galaxy structure, these “cartographic” surveys lend insights into the formation and evolution of galaxies when supplemented with additional data (e.g., spectroscopy, astrometry) and when referenced to theoretical models and simulations of galaxy evolution. These increasingly sophisticated simulations are making ever more specific predictions about the detailed chemistry and dynamics of stellar populations in galaxies. To fully exploit, test and constrain these theoretical ventures demands similar commitments of observational effort as has been plied into the previous imaging surveys to fill out other dimensions of parameter space with statistically significant intensity. Fortunately the future of large-scale stellar population studies is bright with a number of grand projects on the horizon that collectively will contribute a breathtaking volume of information on individual stars in Local Group galaxies. These projects include: (1) additional imaging surveys, such as Pan-STARRS, SkyMapper and LSST, which, apart from providing deep, multicolor imaging, yield time series data useful for revealing variable stars (including critical standard candles, like RR Lyrae variables) and creating large-scale, deep proper motion catalogs; (2) higher accuracy, space-based astrometric missions, such as Gaia and SIM-Lite, which stand to provide critical, high precision dynamical data on stars in the Milky Way and its satellites; and (3) large-scale spectroscopic surveys provided by RAVE, APOGEE, HERMES, LAMOST, and the Gaia spectrometer, which will yield not only enormous numbers of stellar radial velocities, but extremely comprehensive views of the chemistry of stellar populations. Meanwhile, previously dust-obscured regions of the Milky Way will continue to be systematically exposed via large infrared surveys underway or on the way, such as the various GLIMPSE surveys from Spitzer's IRAC instrument, UKIDSS, APOGEE, JASMINE and WISE.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Preface of the "Symposium on Mathematical Models and Methods to investigate Heterogeneity in Cell and Cell Population Biology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-01

This session investigates hot topics related to mathematical representations of cell and cell population dynamics in biology and medicine, in particular, but not only, with applications to cancer. Methods in mathematical modelling and analysis, and in statistical inference using single-cell and cell population data, should contribute to focus this session on heterogeneity in cell populations. Among other methods are proposed: a) Intracellular protein dynamics and gene regulatory networks using ordinary/partial/delay differential equations (ODEs, PDEs, DDEs); b) Representation of cell population dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) and/or PDEs; c) Hybrid models and multiscale models to integrate single-cell dynamics into cell population behaviour; d) Structured cell population dynamics and asymptotic evolution w.r.t. relevant traits; e) Heterogeneity in cancer cell populations: origin, evolution, phylogeny and methods of reconstruction; f) Drug resistance as an evolutionary phenotype: predicting and overcoming it in therapeutics; g) Theoretical therapeutic optimisation of combined drug treatments in cancer cell populations and in populations of other organisms, such as bacteria.

Future Supply of Pediatric Surgeons: Analytical Study of the Current and Projected Supply of Pediatric Surgeons in the Context of a Rapidly Changing Process for Specialty and Subspecialty Training.

PubMed

Ricketts, Thomas C; Adamson, William T; Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Geiger, James D; Abdullah, Fizan; Klein, Michael D

2017-03-01

To describe the future supply and demand for pediatric surgeons using a physician supply model to determine what the future supply of pediatric surgeons will be over the next decade and a half and to compare that projected supply with potential indicators of demand and the growth of other subspecialties. Anticipating the supply of physicians and surgeons in the future has met with varying levels of success. However, there remains a need to anticipate supply given the rapid growth of specialty and subspecialty fellowships. This analysis is intended to support decision making on the size of future fellowships in pediatric surgery. The model used in the study is an adaptation of the FutureDocs physician supply and need tool developed to anticipate future supply and need for all physician specialties. Data from national inventories of physicians by specialty, age, sex, activity, and location are combined with data from residency and fellowship programs and accrediting bodies in an agent-based or microsimulation projection model that considers movement into and among specialties. Exits from practice and the geographic distribution of physician and the patient population are also included in the model. Three scenarios for the annual entry into pediatric surgery fellowships (28, 34, and 56) are modeled and their effects on supply through 2030 are presented. The FutureDocs model predicts a very rapid growth of the supply of surgeons who treat pediatric patients-including general pediatric surgeon and focused subspecialties. The supply of all pediatric surgeons will grow relatively rapidly through 2030 under current conditions. That growth is much faster than the rate of growth of the pediatric population. The volume of complex surgical cases will likely match this population growth rate meaning there will be many more surgeons trained for those procedures. The current entry rate into pediatric surgery fellowships (34 per year) will result in a slowing of growth after 2025, a rate of 56 will generate a continued growth through 2030 with a likely plateau after 2035. The rate of entry into pediatric surgery will continue to exceed population growth through 2030 under two likely scenarios. The very rapid anticipated growth in focused pediatric subspecialties will likely prove challenging to surgeons wishing to maintain their skills with complex cases as a larger and more diverse group of surgeons will also seek to care for many of the conditions and patients which the general pediatric surgeons and general surgeons now see. This means controlling the numbers of pediatric surgery fellowships in a way that recognizes problems with distribution, the volume of cases available to maintain proficiency, and the dynamics of retirement and shifts into other specialty practice.

A population ecology perspective on the functioning and future of health information organizations.

PubMed

Vest, Joshua R; Menachemi, Nir

2017-11-01

Increasingly, health care providers need to exchange information to meet policy expectations and business needs. A variety of health information organizations (HIOs) provide services to facilitate health information exchange (HIE). However, the future of these organizations is unclear. The aim of this study was to explore the environmental context, potential futures, and survivability of community HIOs, enterprise HIEs, and electronic health record vendor-mediated exchange using the population ecology theory. Qualitative interviews with 33 key informants representing each type of HIE organization were analyzed using template analysis. Community HIOs, enterprise HIEs, and electronic health record vendors exhibited a high degree of competition for resources, especially in the area of exchange infrastructure services. Competition resulted in closures in some areas. In response to environmental pressures, each organizational type was endeavoring to differentiate its services and unique use case, as well as pursing symbiotic relationships or attempting resource partitioning. HIOs compete for similar resources and are reacting to environmental pressures to better position themselves for continued survival and success. Our ecological research perspective helps move the discourse away from situation of a single exchange organization type toward a view of the broader dynamics and relationships of all organizations involved in facilitating HIE activities. HIOs are attempting to partition the environment and differentiate services. HIE options should not be construed as an "either/or" decision, but one where multiple and complementary participation may be required.

A road for a promising future for China's primates: The potential for restoration.

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A

2018-07-18

China is one of the most dynamic countries of the world and it shelters some amazing levels of biodiversity, including some very special primate species. However, primarily as a result of forest loss, most of which occurred in historical times, approximately 70% of China's primate species have less than 3 000 individuals. Here I evaluate one road for future conservation/development that could produce very positive gains for China's primates; namely forest restoration. I argue that for a large scale restoration project to be possible two conditions must be met; the right societal conditions must exist and the right knowledge must be in hand. This evaluation suggests that the restoration of native forest to support many of China's primates holds great potential to advance conservation goals and to promote primate population recovery.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

PubMed

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

Physical, Psychological and Emotional Benefits of Green Physical Activity: An Ecological Dynamics Perspective.

PubMed

Yeh, Hsiao-Pu; Stone, Joseph Antony; Churchill, Sarah May; Wheat, Jonathan Stephen; Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

2016-07-01

Increasing evidence supports the multiple benefits to physical, psychological and emotional wellbeing of green physical activity, a topic of increasing interest in the past decade. Research has revealed a synergistic benefit of green physical activity, which includes all aspects of exercise and physical activity in the presence of nature. Our theoretical analysis suggests there are three distinct levels of engagement in green physical activity, with each level reported to have a positive effect on human behaviours. However, the extent to which each level of green physical activity benefits health and wellbeing is assumed to differ, requiring confirmation in future research. This elucidation of understanding is needed because previous literature has tended to focus on recording empirical evidence rather than developing a sound theoretical framework to understand green physical activity effects. Here we propose an ecological dynamics rationale to explain how and why green physical activity might influence health and wellbeing of different population groups. This framework suggests a number of unexplored, interacting constraints related to types of environment and population groups, which shape reported levels of benefit of green physical activity. Further analysis is needed to clarify the explicit relationship between green physical activity and health and wellbeing, including levels of engagement, types of environmental constraints, levels of physical activity, adventure effects, skill effects and sampling of different populations.

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

DOE PAGES

Danczak, Robert E.; Sawyer, Audrey H.; Williams, Kenneth H.; ...

2016-12-03

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. In order to assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling.more » Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.« less

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danczak, Robert E.; Sawyer, Audrey H.; Williams, Kenneth H.

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. In order to assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling.more » Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.« less

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danczak, Robert E.; Sawyer, Audrey H.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Stegen, James C.; Hobson, Chad; Wilkins, Michael J.

2016-12-01

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. To assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling. Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.

Probing the formation history of the nuclear star cluster at the Galactic Centre with millisecond pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbate, F.; Mastrobuono-Battisti, A.; Colpi, M.; Possenti, A.; Sippel, A. C.; Dotti, M.

2018-01-01

The origin of the nuclear star cluster in the centre of our Galaxy is still unknown. One possibility is that it formed after the disruption of stellar clusters that spiralled into the Galactic Centre due to dynamical friction. We trace the formation of the nuclear star cluster around the central black hole, using state-of-the-art N-body simulations, and follow the dynamics of the neutron stars born in the clusters. We then estimate the number of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) that are released in the nuclear star cluster during its formation. The assembly and tidal dismemberment of globular clusters lead to a population of MSPs distributed over a radius of about 20 pc, with a peak near 3 pc. No clustering is found on the subparsec scale. We simulate the detectability of this population with future radio telescopes like the MeerKAT radio telescope and SKA1, and find that about an order of 10 MSPs can be observed over this large volume, with a paucity of MSPs within the central parsec. This helps discriminating this scenario from the in situ formation model for the nuclear star cluster that would predict an overabundance of MSPs closer to the black hole. We then discuss the potential contribution of our MSP population to the gamma-ray excess at the Galactic Centre.

Human-facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species, Cimex lectularius

PubMed Central

FOUNTAIN, TOBY; DUVAUX, LUDOVIC; HORSBURGH, GAVIN; REINHARDT, KLAUS; BUTLIN, ROGER K

2014-01-01

The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re-emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human-facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (FST = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations. PMID:24446663

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival

PubMed Central

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Mooji, Yusuf Al; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-01-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population–environment–development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. PMID:24452051

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Pierre, Amandine; Cristescu, Romane; Lévréro, Florence; Gatti, Sylvain; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly; Le Gouar, Pascaline

2015-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people killed. Approximately two-thirds of European citizens could then be exposed to a weather-related disaster each year, which will bring about huge rises in health costs to society. Future impacts show a prominent spatial gradient towards southern regions, where weather extremes could become the greatest environmental risk factor for people. The projected changes are dominated by global warming, mainly through a rise in heatwaves, but ongoing urbanization, development in hazard-prone areas and ageing population will likely further increase human risk. The results call for immediate action to achieve the Paris goals on climate mitigation and adaptation in order to protect future European generations.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

A meta-analysis of education effects on chronic disease: the causal dynamics of the Population Education Transition Curve.

PubMed

Smith, William C; Anderson, Emily; Salinas, Daniel; Horvatek, Renata; Baker, David P

2015-02-01

As the Epidemiological Transition progresses worldwide, chronic diseases account for the majority of deaths in developed countries and a rising proportion in developing countries indicating a new global pattern of mortality and health challenges into the future. Attainment of formal education is widely reported to have a negative gradient with risk factors and onset of chronic disease, yet there has not been a formal assessment of this research. A random-effects meta-analysis finds that across 414 published effects more education significantly reduces the likelihood of chronic disease, except for neoplastic diseases with substantial genetic causes. Some studies, however, report null effects and other research on infectious disease report positive education gradients. Instead of assuming these contradictory results are spurious, it is suggested that they are part of a predictable systemic interaction between multiple mediating effects of education and the Epidemiological Transition stage of the population; and thus represent one case of the Population Education Transition Curve modeling changes in the association between education and health as dependent on population context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making--a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-06-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making—a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Stochastic gain in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röhl, Torsten; Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Schuster, Heinz Georg

2008-08-01

Flexible learning rates can lead to increased payoffs under the influence of noise. In a previous paper [Traulsen , Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 028701 (2004)], we have demonstrated this effect based on a replicator dynamics model which is subject to external noise. Here, we utilize recent advances on finite population dynamics and their connection to the replicator equation to extend our findings and demonstrate the stochastic gain effect in finite population systems. Finite population dynamics is inherently stochastic, depending on the population size and the intensity of selection, which measures the balance between the deterministic and the stochastic parts of the dynamics. This internal noise can be exploited by a population using an appropriate microscopic update process, even if learning rates are constant.

Coordinated dynamic encoding in the retina using opposing forms of plasticity

PubMed Central

Kastner, David B.; Baccus, Stephen A.

2011-01-01

The range of natural inputs encoded by a neuron often exceeds its dynamic range. To overcome this limitation, neural populations divide their inputs among different cell classes, as with rod and cone photoreceptors, and adapt by shifting their dynamic range. We report that the dynamic behavior of retinal ganglion cells in salamanders, mice, and rabbits is divided into two opposing forms of short-term plasticity in different cell classes. One population of cells exhibited sensitization—a persistent elevated sensitivity following a strong stimulus. This novel dynamic behavior compensates for the information loss caused by the known process of adaptation occurring in a separate cell population. The two populations divide the dynamic range of inputs, with sensitizing cells encoding weak signals, and adapting cells encoding strong signals. In the two populations, the linear, threshold and adaptive properties are linked to preserve responsiveness when stimulus statistics change, with one population maintaining the ability to respond when the other fails. PMID:21909086

Motivation: What have we learned and what is still missing?

PubMed

Studer, B; Knecht, S

2016-01-01

This final chapter deliberates three overarching topics and conclusions of the research presented in this volume: the endurance of the concept of extrinsic vs intrinsic motivation, the importance of considering subjective costs of activities when aiming to understand and enhance motivation, and current knowledge of the neurobiological underpinnings of motivation. Furthermore, three topics for future motivation research are outlined, namely the assessment and determinants of intrinsic benefits, the reconciliation of activity-specific motivation models with generalized motivation impairments in clinical populations, and the motivational dynamics of groups. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evidence for multiple events of hybridization between wolves and domestic dogs in the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Godinho, Raquel; Llaneza, Luis; Blanco, Juan C; Lopes, Susana; Álvares, Francisco; García, Emilio J; Palacios, Vicente; Cortés, Yolanda; Talegón, Javier; Ferrand, Nuno

2011-12-01

Hybridization between wild species and their domestic counterparts may represent a major threat to natural populations. However, high genetic similarity between the hybridizing taxa makes the detection of hybrids a difficult task and may hinder attempts to assess the impact of hybridization in conservation biology. In this work, we used a combination of 42 autosomal microsatellites together with Y-chromosome microsatellite-defined haplotypes and mtDNA sequences to investigate the occurrence and dynamics of wolf-dog hybridization in the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, we applied a variety of Bayesian analyses and a parallel set of simulation studies to evaluate (i) the differences between Iberian wolves and dogs, (ii) the frequency and geographical distribution of hybridization and (iii) the directionality of hybridization. First, we show that Iberian wolves and dogs form two well-differentiated genetic entities, suggesting that introgressive hybridization is not a widespread phenomenon shaping both gene pools. Second, we found evidence for the existence of hybridization that is apparently restricted to more peripheral and recently expanded wolf populations. Third, we describe compelling evidence suggesting that the dynamics of hybridization in wolf populations is mediated by crosses between male dogs and female wolves. More importantly, the observation of a population showing the occurrence of a continuum of hybrid classes forming mixed packs may indicate that we have underestimated hybridization. If future studies confirm this pattern, then an intriguing avenue of research is to investigate how introgression from free-ranging domestic dogs is enabling wolf populations to adapt to the highly humanized habitats of southern Europe while still maintaining their genetic differentiation. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Master Middle Ware: A Tool to Integrate Water Resources and Fish Population Dynamics Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Thompson, L. C.; Kilduff, D. P.

2017-12-01

Linking models that investigate separate components of ecosystem processes has the potential to unify messages regarding management decisions by evaluating potential trade-offs in a cohesive framework. This project aimed to improve the ability of riparian resource managers to forecast future water availability conditions and resultant fish habitat suitability, in order to better inform their management decisions. To accomplish this goal, we developed a middleware tool that is capable of linking and overseeing the operations of two existing models, a water resource planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and a habitat-based fish population dynamics model (WEAPhish). First, we designed the Master Middle Ware (MMW) software in Visual Basic for Application® in one Excel® file that provided a familiar framework for both data input and output Second, MMW was used to link and jointly operate WEAP and WEAPhish, using Visual Basic Application (VBA) macros to implement system level calls to run the models. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, hydrological, biological, and middleware model components were developed for the Butte Creek basin. This tributary of the Sacramento River, California is managed for both hydropower and the persistence of a threatened population of spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha). While we have demonstrated the use of MMW for a particular watershed and fish population, MMW can be customized for use with different rivers and fish populations, assuming basic data requirements are met. This model integration improves on ad hoc linkages for managing data transfer between software programs by providing a consistent, user-friendly, and familiar interface across different model implementations. Furthermore, the data-viewing capabilities of MMW facilitate the rapid interpretation of model results by hydrologists, fisheries biologists, and resource managers, in order to accelerate learning and management decision making.

From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands.

PubMed

Olsen, Siri L; Töpper, Joachim P; Skarpaas, Olav; Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari

2016-05-01

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Game theory in the death galaxy: interaction of cancer and stromal cells in tumour microenvironment.

PubMed

Wu, Amy; Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D; Sturm, James C; Austin, Robert H

2014-08-06

Preventing relapse is the major challenge to effective therapy in cancer. Within the tumour, stromal (ST) cells play an important role in cancer progression and the emergence of drug resistance. During cancer treatment, the fitness of cancer cells can be enhanced by ST cells because their molecular signalling interaction delays the drug-induced apoptosis of cancer cells. On the other hand, competition among cancer and ST cells for space or resources should not be ignored. We explore the population dynamics of multiple myeloma (MM) versus bone marrow ST cells by using an experimental microecology that we call the death galaxy, with a stable drug gradient and connected microhabitats. Evolutionary game theory is a quantitative way to capture the frequency-dependent nature of interactive populations. Therefore, we use evolutionary game theory to model the populations in the death galaxy with the gradients of pay-offs and successfully predict the future densities of MM and ST cells. We discuss the possible clinical use of such analysis for predicting cancer progression.

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

HIV competition dynamics over sexual networks: first comer advantage conserves founder effects.

PubMed

Ferdinandy, Bence; Mones, Enys; Vicsek, Tamás; Müller, Viktor

2015-02-01

Outside Africa, the global phylogeography of HIV is characterized by compartmentalized local epidemics that are typically dominated by a single subtype, which indicates strong founder effects. We hypothesized that the competition of viral strains at the epidemic level may involve an advantage of the resident strain that was the first to colonize a population. Such an effect would slow down the invasion of new strains, and thus also the diversification of the epidemic. We developed a stochastic modelling framework to simulate HIV epidemics over dynamic contact networks. We simulated epidemics in which the second strain was introduced into a population where the first strain had established a steady-state epidemic, and assessed whether, and on what time scale, the second strain was able to spread in the population. Simulations were parameterized based on empirical data; we tested scenarios with varying levels of overall prevalence. The spread of the second strain occurred on a much slower time scale compared with the initial expansion of the first strain. With strains of equal transmission efficiency, the second strain was unable to invade on a time scale relevant for the history of the HIV pandemic. To become dominant over a time scale of decades, the second strain needed considerable (>25%) advantage in transmission efficiency over the resident strain. The inhibition effect was weaker if the second strain was introduced while the first strain was still in its growth phase. We also tested how possible mechanisms of interference (inhibition of superinfection, depletion of highly connected hubs in the network, one-time acute peak of infectiousness) contribute to the inhibition effect. Our simulations confirmed a strong first comer advantage in the competition dynamics of HIV at the population level, which may explain the global phylogeography of the virus and may influence the future evolution of the pandemic.

Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Luke Zoltan

2018-05-01

This thesis studies the populations and dynamics of massive black-hole binaries and their mergers, and explores the implications for electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals that will be detected in the near future. Massive black-holes (MBH) reside in the centers of galaxies, and when galaxies merge, their MBH interact and often pair together. We base our study on the populations of MBH and galaxies from the `Illustris' cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The bulk of the binary merger dynamics, however, are unresolved in cosmological simulations. We implement a suite of comprehensive physical models for the merger process, like dynamical friction and gravitational wave emission, which are added in post-processing. Contrary to many previous studies, we find that the most massive binaries with near equal-mass companions are the most efficient at coalescing; though the process still typically takes gigayears.From the data produced by these MBH binary populations and their dynamics, we calculate the expected gravitational wave (GW) signals: both the stochastic, GW background of countless unresolved sources, and the GW foreground of individually resolvable binaries which resound above the noise. Ongoing experiments, called pulsar timing arrays, are sensitive to both of these types of signals. We find that, while the current lack of detections is unsurprising, both the background and foreground will plausibly be detected in the next decade. Unlike previous studies which have predicted the foreground to be significantly harder to detect than the background, we find their typical amplitudes are comparable.With traditional electromagnetic observations, there has also been a dearth of confirmed detections of MBH binary systems. We use our binaries, combined with models of emission from accreting MBH systems, to make predictions for the occurrence rate of systems observable using photometric, periodic-variability surveys. These variables should be detectable in current surveys, and indeed, we expect many candidates recently identified to be true binaries - though a significant fraction are likely false positives. Overall, this thesis finds the science of MBH binaries at an exciting cusp: just before incredible breakthroughs in observations, both electromagnetically and in the new age of gravitational wave astrophysics.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Risk of collective failure provides an escape from the tragedy of the commons.

PubMed

Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

2011-06-28

From group hunting to global warming, how to deal with collective action may be formulated in terms of a public goods game of cooperation. In most cases, contributions depend on the risk of future losses. Here, we introduce an evolutionary dynamics approach to a broad class of cooperation problems in which attempting to minimize future losses turns the risk of failure into a central issue in individual decisions. We find that decisions within small groups under high risk and stringent requirements to success significantly raise the chances of coordinating actions and escaping the tragedy of the commons. We also offer insights on the scale at which public goods problems of cooperation are best solved. Instead of large-scale endeavors involving most of the population, which as we argue, may be counterproductive to achieve cooperation, the joint combination of local agreements within groups that are small compared with the population at risk is prone to significantly raise the probability of success. In addition, our model predicts that, if one takes into consideration that groups of different sizes are interwoven in complex networks of contacts, the chances for global coordination in an overall cooperating state are further enhanced.

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

An energy-economy-environment model for simulating the impacts of socioeconomic development on energy and environment.

PubMed

Wang, Wenyi; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction.

PubMed

Heldt, Katherine A; Connell, Sean D; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D; Munguia, Pablo

2016-09-14

When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom.

Museum specimen data reveal emergence of a plant disease may be linked to increases in the insect vector population.

PubMed

Zeilinger, Adam R; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Turek, Daniel; Oboyski, Peter T; Almeida, Rodrigo P P; Roderick, George K

2017-09-01

The emergence rate of new plant diseases is increasing due to novel introductions, climate change, and changes in vector populations, posing risks to agricultural sustainability. Assessing and managing future disease risks depends on understanding the causes of contemporary and historical emergence events. Since the mid-1990s, potato growers in the western United States, Mexico, and Central America have experienced severe yield loss from Zebra Chip disease and have responded by increasing insecticide use to suppress populations of the insect vector, the potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae). Despite the severe nature of Zebra Chip outbreaks, the causes of emergence remain unknown. We tested the hypotheses that (1) B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century in California and (2) such increases are related to climate change, specifically warmer winters. We compiled a data set of 87,000 museum specimen occurrence records across the order Hemiptera collected between 1900 and 2014. We then analyzed changes in B. cockerelli distribution using a hierarchical occupancy model using changes in background species lists to correct for collecting effort. We found evidence that B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century. However, these changes appear to be unrelated to climate changes, at least at the scale of our analysis. To the extent that species occupancy is related to abundance, our analysis provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that B. cockerelli population abundance has increased, but further work is needed to link B. cockerelli population dynamics to Zebra Chip epidemics. Finally, we demonstrate how this historical macro-ecological approach provides a general framework for comparative risk assessment of future pest and insect vector outbreaks. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modelling density-dependent resistance in insect-pathogen interactions.

PubMed

White, K A; Wilson, K

1999-10-01

We consider a mathematical model for a host-pathogen interaction where the host population is split into two categories: those susceptible to disease and those resistant to disease. Since the model was motivated by studies on insect populations, we consider a discrete-time model to reflect the discrete generations which are common among insect species. Whether an individual is born susceptible or resistant to disease depends on the local population levels at the start of each generation. In particular, we are interested in the case where the fraction of resistant individuals in the population increases as the total population increases. This may be seen as a positive feedback mechanism since disease is the only population control imposed upon the system. Moreover, it reflects recent experimental observations from noctuid moth-baculovirus interactions that pathogen resistance may increase with larval density. We find that the inclusion of a resistant class can stabilise unstable host-pathogen interactions but there is greatest regulation when the fraction born resistant is density independent. Nonetheless, inclusion of density dependence can still allow intrinsically unstable host-pathogen dynamics to be stabilised provided that this effect is sufficiently small. Moreover, inclusion of density-dependent resistance to disease allows the system to give rise to bistable dynamics in which the final outcome is dictated by the initial conditions for the model system. This has implications for the management of agricultural pests using biocontrol agents-in particular, it is suggested that the propensity for density-dependent resistance be determined prior to such a biocontrol attempt in order to be sure that this will result in the prevention of pest outbreaks, rather than their facilitation. Finally we consider how the cost of resistance to disease affects model outcomes and discover that when there is no cost to resistance, the model predicts stable periodic outbreaks of the insect population. The results are interpreted ecologically and future avenues for research to address the shortfalls in the present model system are discussed. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host-virus system.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Sieber, Michael; Becks, Lutz

2016-04-01

Eco-evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco-evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco-evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host-virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade-off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade-off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment

PubMed Central

Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg

2012-01-01

Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2013-03-21

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of fish population dynamics to mitigation activities in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Quist, Michael C.; Hardy, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Extensive water development in large rivers has precipitated many negative ecological effects on native fish populations. Mitigation for such development often focuses on restoring biological integrity through remediation of the physical and chemical properties of regulated rivers. However, evaluating and defining the success of those programs can be difficult. We modeled the influence of mitigation-related environmental factors on growth and recruitment of two ecologically important native fish species (Largescale Sucker Catostomus macrocheilus and Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni) in the Kootenai River, Idaho. Artificial nutrient (phosphorus) addition best predicted the variability in annual growth of both species. Nutrient addition was positively related to Largescale Sucker growth but negatively related to Mountain Whitefish growth. The best model explained 82% of the annual variability in incremental growth for Largescale Suckers and 61% of the annual variability for Mountain Whitefish. Year-class strength of Largescale Suckers was not closely related to any of the environmental variables evaluated; however, year-class strength of Mountain Whitefish was closely associated with nutrient addition, discharge, and temperature. Most research has focused on biotic assemblages to evaluate the effects of mitigation activities on fishes, but there is an increased need to identify the influence of rehabilitation activities on fish population dynamics within those assemblages. Here, we demonstrate how fish growth can serve as an indicator of rehabilitation success in a highly regulated large river. Future fish restoration projects can likely benefit from a change in scope and from consideration of an evaluation framework involving the response of population rate functions to mitigation.

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi.

PubMed

Abbott, Ronald E; Doak, Daniel F; Peterson, Megan L

2017-04-01

The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m 2 plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

PGG.Population: a database for understanding the genomic diversity and genetic ancestry of human populations.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Gao, Yang; Liu, Jiaojiao; Xue, Zhe; Lu, Yan; Deng, Lian; Tian, Lei; Feng, Qidi; Xu, Shuhua

2018-01-04

There are a growing number of studies focusing on delineating genetic variations that are associated with complex human traits and diseases due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. However, identifying and prioritizing disease-associated causal variants relies on understanding the distribution of genetic variations within and among populations. The PGG.Population database documents 7122 genomes representing 356 global populations from 107 countries and provides essential information for researchers to understand human genomic diversity and genetic ancestry. These data and information can facilitate the design of research studies and the interpretation of results of both evolutionary and medical studies involving human populations. The database is carefully maintained and constantly updated when new data are available. We included miscellaneous functions and a user-friendly graphical interface for visualization of genomic diversity, population relationships (genetic affinity), ancestral makeup, footprints of natural selection, and population history etc. Moreover, PGG.Population provides a useful feature for users to analyze data and visualize results in a dynamic style via online illustration. The long-term ambition of the PGG.Population, together with the joint efforts from other researchers who contribute their data to our database, is to create a comprehensive depository of geographic and ethnic variation of human genome, as well as a platform bringing influence on future practitioners of medicine and clinical investigators. PGG.Population is available at https://www.pggpopulation.org. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2015-02-01

The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Hong S. He; Heike Lischke; Wen J. Wang; Wenchi Jin; Eric J. Gustafson; Jonathan R. Thompson; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jian Yang

2017-01-01

Context. Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent. Objectives. We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities. Methods. We reviewed...

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

The future of the New Zealand plastic surgery workforce.

PubMed

Adams, Brandon M; Klaassen, Michael F; Tan, Swee T

2013-04-05

The New Zealand (NZ) plastic and reconstructive surgery (PRS) workforce provides reconstructive plastic surgery (RPS) public services from six centres. There has been little analysis on whether the workforce is adequate to meet the needs of the NZ population currently or in the future. This study analysed the current workforce, its distribution and future requirements. PRS manpower data, workforce activities, population statistics, and population modelling were analysed to determine current needs and predict future needs for the PRS workforce. The NZ PRS workforce is compared with international benchmarks. Regional variation of the workforce was analysed with respect to the population's access to PRS services. Future supply of specialist plastic surgeons is analysed. NZ has a lower number of plastic surgeons per capita than comparable countries. The current NZ PRS workforce is mal-distributed. Areas of current and emerging future need are identified. The current workforce mal-distribution will worsen with future population growth and distribution. Up to 60% of the NZ population will be at risk of inadequate access to PRS services by 2027. Development of PRS services must be coordinated to ensure that equitable and sustainable services are available throughout NZ. Strategies for ensuring satisfactory future workforce are discussed.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

PubMed

Kooi, B W

2015-12-01

We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population structure and strong divergent selection shape phenotypic diversification in maize landraces.

PubMed

Pressoir, G; Berthaud, J

2004-02-01

To conserve the long-term selection potential of maize, it is necessary to investigate past and present evolutionary processes that have shaped quantitative trait variation. Understanding the dynamics of quantitative trait evolution is crucial to future crop breeding. We characterized population differentiation of maize landraces from the State of Oaxaca, Mexico for quantitative traits and molecular markers. Qst values were much higher than Fst values obtained for molecular markers. While low values of Fst (0.011 within-village and 0.003 among-villages) suggest that considerable gene flow occurred among the studied populations, high levels of population differentiation for quantitative traits were observed (ie an among-village Qst value of 0.535 for kernel weight). Our results suggest that although quantitative traits appear to be under strong divergent selection, a considerable amount of gene flow occurs among populations. Furthermore, we characterized nonproportional changes in the G matrix structure both within and among villages that are consequences of farmer selection. As a consequence of these differences in the G matrix structure, the response to multivariate selection will be different from one population to another. Large changes in the G matrix structure could indicate that farmers select for genes of major and pleiotropic effect. Farmers' decision and selection strategies have a great impact on phenotypic diversification in maize landraces.

Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges

PubMed Central

Carr, David L.; Suter, Laurel; Barbieri, Alisson

2009-01-01

What is the role of population in driving deforestation? This question was put forth as a discussion topic in the cyberseminar hosted by Population Environment Research Network (PERN) in Spring, 2003. Contributors from diverse backgrounds weighed in on the discussion, citing key factors in the population-deforestation nexus and suggesting further courses of action and research. Participants explored themes of their own choosing, with many coming to the forefront. Scale, time, and place-based effects were cited as areas in need of particular attention. Consumption patterns as the mechanism for spurring deforestation were discussed, drawing attention to the differential patterns associated with urban vs. rural demands on forest resources and land. The applicability of the IPAT formula and the influence of its component parts, affluence and technology, when operating in tandem with population, was debated. The relation of demographic factors to these pathways was critically examined. Institutional and governmental influence, such as infrastructure and policies affecting access and incentives, the valuation of resources, and institutional failures such as mismanagement and corruption emerged as a crucial set of factors. This article synthesizes the critical debates in the population-deforestation literature, makes suggestions for future paths of research, and discussed possible policy and direct action initiatives. PMID:19672477

From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

PubMed

Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

2018-01-01

Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

Acidification reduced growth rate but not swimming speed of larval sea urchins.

PubMed

Chan, Kit Yu Karen; García, Eliseba; Dupont, Sam

2015-05-15

Swimming behaviors of planktonic larvae impact dispersal and population dynamics of many benthic marine invertebrates. This key ecological function is modulated by larval development dynamics, biomechanics of the resulting morphology, and behavioral choices. Studies on ocean acidification effects on larval stages have yet to address this important interaction between development and swimming under environmentally-relevant flow conditions. Our video motion analysis revealed that pH covering present and future natural variability (pH 8.0, 7.6 and 7.2) did not affect age-specific swimming of larval green urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis in still water nor in shear, despite acidified individuals being significantly smaller in size (reduced growth rate). This maintenance of speed and stability in shear was accompanied by an overall change in size-corrected shape, implying changes in swimming biomechanics. Our observations highlight strong evolutionary pressure to maintain swimming in a varying environment and the plasticity in larval responses to environmental change.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Biomedical engineering continues to make the future.

PubMed

Fantini, Sergio; Bennis, Caoimhe; Kaplan, David

2011-01-01

Biomedical engineering (BME) continues to make the future, not just respond to the present, by anticipating the needs of interface engineering and clinical medicine. In many respects, BME is the educational mode of the future, fostering collaboration among disciplines at its core by building on basic concepts in engineering and biology. We strive to educate where the needs, opportunities, and jobs are and will be in the future. The bridge between engineering, biology, and medicine is a growing link, and there is no sign that this interface will slow. With an aging population, dynamic changes in health care, as well as global economies and related themes upon us, we are only at the very beginning of the impact that BME will have on medicine and the quality of life. Those of us in BME are excited to be setting this agenda and welcome your participation. In part, this is why we have designed our BME major to cover both the depth and breadth, always a challenge, but one that we are committed to. The depth of the design projects, research experience, coursework, study abroad options, and internships all convenes to establish a solid foundation for our students as they embark on their career paths.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Transient synchrony among populations of five foliage-feeding Lepidoptera

Treesearch

Maartje J. Klapwijk; Jonathan A. Walter; Anikó Hirka; György Csóka; Christer Björkman; Andrew M. Liebhold

2018-01-01

Studies of transient population dynamics have largely focused on temporal changes in dynamical behaviour, such as the transition between periods of stability and instability. This study explores a related dynamic pattern, namely transient synchrony during a 49-year period among populations of five sympatric species of forest insects that share host tree resources. The...

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

2016-07-01

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simple deterministic models and applications. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hyun Mo

2015-12-01

Currently, discrete modellings are largely accepted due to the access to computers with huge storage capacity and high performance processors and easy implementation of algorithms, allowing to develop and simulate increasingly sophisticated models. Wang et al. [7] present a review of dynamics in complex networks, focusing on the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. By doing an extensive review regarding to the human behavior responding to disease dynamics, the authors briefly describe the complex dynamics found in the literature: well-mixed populations networks, where spatial structure can be neglected, and other networks considering heterogeneity on spatially distributed populations. As controlling mechanisms are implemented, such as social distancing due 'social contagion', quarantine, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, adaptive behavior can occur in human population, which can be easily taken into account in the dynamics formulated by networked populations.

Present Day and Future Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhoff, D.

2017-12-01

Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. An energy balance container model termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM) solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available meteorological data. Output from WHATCH'EM is used to estimate development parameters for the immature life stages of the Ae. aegypti mosquito, allowing for assessment of habitat suitability across varying natural environments. Variability amongst different artificial containers (e.g., size, color, material, shape), shading scenarios, and water availability scenarios is also addressed. WHATCH'EM is also coupled with an Ae. aegypti life cycle model to include the effects of the aforementioned factors on survival. Projections of future climate scenarios that take into account changes not only in temperature but also precipitation, humidity, and radiative effects are used in WHATCH'EM to estimate how Ae. aegypti population dynamics may change.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

Status and future of Lake Huron fish communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebener, M.P.; Johnson, J.E.; Reid, D.M.; Payne, N.P.; Argyle, R.L.; Wright, G.M.; Krueger, K.; Baker, J.P.; Morse, T.; Weise, J.; Munawar, M.; Edsall, T.; Leach, J.

1995-01-01

In 1993, fishery management agencies with jurisdiction over Lake Huron fish populations developed draft fish community objectives in response to the Joint Strategic Plan for Management of Great Lakes Fisheries. The Joint Strategic Plan charged the Great Lakes Fishery Commission sponsored Lake Huron Committee to define objectives for what the fish community of Lake Huron should look like in the future, and to develop means for measuring progress toward the objectives. The overall management objective for Lake Huron is to 'over the next two decades restore an ecologically balanced fish community dominated by top predators and consisting largely of self-sustaining, indigenous and naturalized species and capable of sustaining annual harvests of 8.9 million kg'. This paper represents the first attempt at consolidating current biological information from different management agencies on a lake-wide basis for the purpose of assessing the current status and dynamics of Lake Huron fishes.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Microbial Community Succession During Lactate Amendment of Chromium Contaminated Groundwater Reveals a Predominance of Pelosinus spp.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mosher, Jennifer J; Phelps, Tommy Joe; Drake, Meghan M

2012-01-01

Microbial community structure and metabolism in contaminated ecosystems are potentially controlled not only by the different populations within the community, but a myriad of dynamic physicochemical parameters as well. The goal of the current work was to determine the impact of organic acid enrichment, in this case lactate, on the succession of the native microbial community from a contaminated groundwater aquifer. Triplicate anaerobic, continuous-flow glass reactors were inoculated with Hanford 100-H groundwater and incubated for 95 days to obtain a stable, enriched community. The microbial community experienced a shift in the population dynamics over time to eventually form a communitymore » with far less diversity than the original. The final community was dominated by Pelosinus spp. and to a lesser degree, Acetobacterium spp. with small amounts of other bacteria and archaea including methanogens. The resultant diversity was far decreased from 63 genera within 12 phyla to 11 bacterial genera (from three phyla) and 2 archaeal genera (from one phylum). Isolation efforts were successful in attaining new species of Pelosinus and known members of Methanosarcina barkerii along with several sulfate- and Fe(III)- reducing consortia members. The continuous-flow reactors allowed for testing physiochemical factors with microbial community dynamics on a smaller, replicable, scale while also facilitating the isolation of several previously uncultured community members. These lab-scale simulations will presumably allow for a deeper understanding of the community metabolism with specific carbon amendments that can inform future in situ efforts.« less

Conceptualizing the dynamics of a drought affected agricultural community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Bloeschl, Guenter

2015-04-01

Climate and especially water availability and variability play an important role in the development of our societies. This can be seen through the vast investments that are made in reaching water security and the economic impact regions experience when the rains fail. However, the limit of available fresh water is increasingly felt as our population increases and the demand for water continues to rise. But how do we as society respond? Are periods of drought making us more resilient? The answer to this question is sought through the development of a stylized model that is built within the spirit of the Easter Island model by Brander and Taylor and aimed at capturing the essence of the dynamics of water supply and demand. By explicitly incorporating feedbacks, but keeping the framework simple, the model seeks to understand qualitative behavior of our socio-hydrological system as opposed to predicting exact pathways. The model shows that carrying capacity dynamics are a determining factor for continued growth. Future work will explore the underlying relationships further, among others, through examination of case studies.

Mathematical Models of the Impact of IL2 Modulation Therapies on T Cell Dynamics

PubMed Central

León, Kalet; García-Martínez, Karina; Carmenate, Tania

2013-01-01

Several reports in the literature have drawn a complex picture of the effect of treatments aiming to modulate IL2 activity in vivo. They seem to promote either immunity or tolerance, probably depending on the specific context, dose, and timing of their application. Such complexity might derive from the pleiotropic role of IL2 in T cell dynamics. To theoretically address the latter possibility, our group has developed several mathematical models for Helper, Regulatory, and Memory T cell population dynamics, which account for most well-known facts concerning their relationship with IL2. We have simulated the effect of several types of therapies, including the injection of: IL2; antibodies anti-IL2; IL2/anti-IL2 immune-complexes; and mutant variants of IL2. We studied the qualitative and quantitative conditions of dose and timing for these treatments which allow them to potentiate either immunity or tolerance. Our results provide reasonable explanations for the existent pre-clinical and clinical data, predict some novel treatments, and further provide interesting practical guidelines to optimize the future application of these types of treatments. PMID:24376444

Recent advances in applying mass spectrometry and systems biology to determine brain dynamics.

PubMed

Scifo, Enzo; Calza, Giulio; Fuhrmann, Martin; Soliymani, Rabah; Baumann, Marc; Lalowski, Maciej

2017-06-01

Neurological disorders encompass various pathologies which disrupt normal brain physiology and function. Poor understanding of their underlying molecular mechanisms and their societal burden argues for the necessity of novel prevention strategies, early diagnostic techniques and alternative treatment options to reduce the scale of their expected increase. Areas covered: This review scrutinizes mass spectrometry based approaches used to investigate brain dynamics in various conditions, including neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. Different proteomics workflows for isolation/enrichment of specific cell populations or brain regions, sample processing; mass spectrometry technologies, for differential proteome quantitation, analysis of post-translational modifications and imaging approaches in the brain are critically deliberated. Future directions, including analysis of cellular sub-compartments, targeted MS platforms (selected/parallel reaction monitoring) and use of mass cytometry are also discussed. Expert commentary: Here, we summarize and evaluate current mass spectrometry based approaches for determining brain dynamics in health and diseases states, with a focus on neurological disorders. Furthermore, we provide insight on current trends and new MS technologies with potential to improve this analysis.

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

The Initial Mass Function in the Nearest Strong Lenses from SNELLS: Assessing the Consistency of Lensing, Dynamical, and Spectroscopic Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, Andrew B.; Smith, Russell J.; Conroy, Charlie; Villaume, Alexa; van Dokkum, Pieter

2017-08-01

We present new observations of the three nearest early-type galaxy (ETG) strong lenses discovered in the SINFONI Nearby Elliptical Lens Locator Survey (SNELLS). Based on their lensing masses, these ETGs were inferred to have a stellar initial mass function (IMF) consistent with that of the Milky Way, not the bottom-heavy IMF that has been reported as typical for high-σ ETGs based on lensing, dynamical, and stellar population synthesis techniques. We use these unique systems to test the consistency of IMF estimates derived from different methods. We first estimate the stellar M */L using lensing and stellar dynamics. We then fit high-quality optical spectra of the lenses using an updated version of the stellar population synthesis models developed by Conroy & van Dokkum. When examined individually, we find good agreement among these methods for one galaxy. The other two galaxies show 2-3σ tension with lensing estimates, depending on the dark matter contribution, when considering IMFs that extend to 0.08 M ⊙. Allowing a variable low-mass cutoff or a nonparametric form of the IMF reduces the tension among the IMF estimates to <2σ. There is moderate evidence for a reduced number of low-mass stars in the SNELLS spectra, but no such evidence in a composite spectrum of matched-σ ETGs drawn from the SDSS. Such variation in the form of the IMF at low stellar masses (m ≲ 0.3 M ⊙), if present, could reconcile lensing/dynamical and spectroscopic IMF estimates for the SNELLS lenses and account for their lighter M */L relative to the mean matched-σ ETG. We provide the spectra used in this study to facilitate future comparisons.

The Initial Mass Function in the Nearest Strong Lenses from SNELLS: Assessing the Consistency of Lensing, Dynamical, and Spectroscopic Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Andrew B.; Smith, Russell J.; Conroy, Charlie

2017-08-20

We present new observations of the three nearest early-type galaxy (ETG) strong lenses discovered in the SINFONI Nearby Elliptical Lens Locator Survey (SNELLS). Based on their lensing masses, these ETGs were inferred to have a stellar initial mass function (IMF) consistent with that of the Milky Way, not the bottom-heavy IMF that has been reported as typical for high- σ ETGs based on lensing, dynamical, and stellar population synthesis techniques. We use these unique systems to test the consistency of IMF estimates derived from different methods. We first estimate the stellar M {sub *}/ L using lensing and stellar dynamics.more » We then fit high-quality optical spectra of the lenses using an updated version of the stellar population synthesis models developed by Conroy and van Dokkum. When examined individually, we find good agreement among these methods for one galaxy. The other two galaxies show 2–3 σ tension with lensing estimates, depending on the dark matter contribution, when considering IMFs that extend to 0.08 M {sub ⊙}. Allowing a variable low-mass cutoff or a nonparametric form of the IMF reduces the tension among the IMF estimates to <2 σ . There is moderate evidence for a reduced number of low-mass stars in the SNELLS spectra, but no such evidence in a composite spectrum of matched- σ ETGs drawn from the SDSS. Such variation in the form of the IMF at low stellar masses ( m ≲ 0.3 M {sub ⊙}), if present, could reconcile lensing/dynamical and spectroscopic IMF estimates for the SNELLS lenses and account for their lighter M {sub *}/ L relative to the mean matched- σ ETG. We provide the spectra used in this study to facilitate future comparisons.« less

Power-law Growth and Punctuated Equilibrium Dynamics in Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

The global rise in population-driven water scarcity and recent appreciation of strong dynamic coupling between human and natural systems has called for new approaches to predict the future sustainability of regional and global water resources systems. The dynamics of coupled human-water systems are driven by a complex set of social, environmental, and technological factors. Present projections of water resources systems range from a finite carrying capacity regulated by accessible freshwater, or `peak renewable water,' to punctuated evolution with new supplied and improved efficiency gained from technological and social innovation. However, these projections have yet to be quantified from observations or in a comprehensive theoretical framework. Using data on global water withdrawals and storage capacity of regional water supply systems, non-trivial dynamics are identified in water resources systems development over time, including power-law growth and punctuated equilibria. Two models are introduced to explain this behavior: (1) a delay differential equation and (2) a power-law with log-periodic oscillations, both of which rely on past conditions (or system memory) to describe the present rate of growth in the system. In addition, extension of the first model demonstrates how system delays and punctuated equilibria can emerge from coupling between human population growth and associated resource demands. Lastly, anecdotal evidence is used to demonstrate the likelihood of power-law growth in global water use from the agricultural revolution 3000 BC to the present. In a practical sense, the presence of these patterns in models with delayed oscillations suggests that current decision-making related to water resources development results from the historical accumulation of resource use decisions, technological and social changes, and their consequences.

Associations and dynamics of Vibrionaceae in the environment, from the genus to the population level

PubMed Central

Takemura, Alison F.; Chien, Diana M.; Polz, Martin F.

2013-01-01

The Vibrionaceae, which encompasses several potential pathogens, including V. cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, and V. vulnificus, the deadliest seafood-borne pathogen, are a well-studied family of marine bacteria that thrive in diverse habitats. To elucidate the environmental conditions under which vibrios proliferate, numerous studies have examined correlations with bulk environmental variables—e.g., temperature, salinity, nitrogen, and phosphate—and association with potential host organisms. However, how meaningful these environmental associations are remains unclear because data are fragmented across studies with variable sampling and analysis methods. Here, we synthesize findings about Vibrio correlations and physical associations using a framework of increasingly fine environmental and taxonomic scales, to better understand their dynamics in the wild. We first conduct a meta-analysis to determine trends with respect to bulk water environmental variables, and find that while temperature and salinity are generally strongly predictive correlates, other parameters are inconsistent and overall patterns depend on taxonomic resolution. Based on the hypothesis that dynamics may better correlate with more narrowly defined niches, we review evidence for specific association with plants, algae, zooplankton, and animals. We find that Vibrio are attached to many organisms, though evidence for enrichment compared to the water column is often lacking. Additionally, contrary to the notion that they flourish predominantly while attached, Vibrio can have, at least temporarily, a free-living lifestyle and even engage in massive blooms. Fine-scale sampling from the water column has enabled identification of such lifestyle preferences for ecologically cohesive populations, and future efforts will benefit from similar analysis at fine genetic and environmental sampling scales to describe the conditions, habitats, and resources shaping Vibrio dynamics. PMID:24575082

Rewards and unique challenges faced by African-American custodial grandmothers: the importance of future planning.

PubMed

Crowther, Martha R; Huang, Chao-Hui Sylvia; Allen, Rebecca S

2015-01-01

This exploratory study examined the context and consequences of custodial grandparenting, along with attitudes and preferences regarding future planning among 22 African-American custodial grandmothers. A mixed-method research design was employed. Based on our integration of two theories regarding future planning and health behavior change, caregiving, emotional distress, religiosity and spirituality, and future planning were assessed using questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews. African-American custodial grandmothers (mean age M = 53.64, SD = 9.58) perceived their caregiving role as rewarding (72%) yet challenging (86%). More than 40% reported significant emotional distress (CES-D ≥ 16) that warrants clinical attention. Findings showed that while 64% of study participants had future plans regarding who will substitute in their caregiving role if they become incapacitated, only 9% had completed a living will. Three major themes emerged regarding custodial grandmothers' caregiving role which includes: (1) rewards; (2) challenges including feeling overwhelmed and health concerns; and (3) caregiving decisions including conflicts between 'My plan was…/put self on-hold' for grandchildren and difficulty with future planning. These themes highlighted the dynamics of caregiving across time, including current context and the ongoing process of decision-making. Findings suggest that while African-American custodial grandmothers find caregiving rewarding, they face unique challenges in contemplating and developing future plans. Custodial grandmothers think about substitute caregivers for their grandchildren but need assistance communicating a plan focused on their own needs for future care. Culturally sensitive interventions designed to facilitate effective utilization of future plans within this caregiver population are needed.

Estimating the short-term recovery potential of little brown bats in the eastern United States in the face of White-nose syndrome

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Tinsley, Karl

2015-01-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) was first detected in North American bats in New York in 2006. Since that time WNS has spread throughout the northeastern United States, southeastern Canada, and southwest across Pennsylvania and as far west as Missouri. Suspect WNS cases have been identified in Minnesota and Iowa, and the causative agent of WNS (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) has recently been detected in Mississippi. The impact of WNS is devastating for little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), causing up to 100% mortality in some overwintering populations, and previous research has forecast the extirpation of the species due to the disease. Recent evidence indicates that remnant populations may persist in areas where WNS is endemic. We developed a spatially explicit model of little brown bat population dynamics to investigate the potential for populations to recover under alternative scenarios. We used these models to investigate how starting population sizes, potential changes in the number of bats overwintering successfully in hibernacula, and potential changes in demographic rates of the population post WNS may influence the ability of the bats to recover to former levels of abundance. We found that populations of the little brown bat and other species that are highly susceptible to WNS are unlikely to return to pre-WNS levels in the near future under any of the scenarios we examined.

Comparative phylogeny and historical perspectives on population genetics of the Pacific hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas), inferred from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan.

PubMed

Nishizawa, Hideaki; Okuyama, Junichi; Kobayashi, Masato; Abe, Osamu; Arai, Nobuaki

2010-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA sequence polymorphisms and patterns of genetic diversity represent the genealogy and relative impacts of historical, geographic, and demographic events on populations. In this study, historical patterns of population dynamics and differentiation in hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Pacific were estimated from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan. Phylogenetic relationships of the haplotypes indicated that hawksbill and green turtles in the Pacific probably underwent very similar patterns and processes of population dynamics over the last million years, with population subdivision during the early Pleistocene and population expansion after the last glacial maximum. These significant contemporary historical events were suggested to have been caused by climatic and sea-level fluctuations. On the other hand, comparing our results to long-term population dynamics in the Atlantic, population subdivisions during the early Pleistocene were specific to Pacific hawksbill and green turtles. Therefore, regional differences in historical population dynamics are suggested. Despite limited sampling locations, these results are the first step in estimating the historical trends in Pacific sea turtles by using phylogenetics and population genetics.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

An Energy-Economy-Environment Model for Simulating the Impacts of Socioeconomic Development on Energy and Environment

PubMed Central

Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement. PMID:24683332

Prediction, dynamics, and visualization of antigenic phenotypes of seasonal influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Neher, Richard A.; Bedford, Trevor; Daniels, Rodney S.; Shraiman, Boris I.

2016-01-01

Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and reinfect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA), and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future A(H3N2) seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser-based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny. PMID:26951657

The size of an ethno-cultural community as a social determinant of health for Chinese seniors.

PubMed

Chau, Shirley; Lai, Daniel W L

2011-12-01

The present study investigated the link between the sizes of the Chinese community to the health of Chinese seniors in Canada. A secondary data analysis of survey data from a representative sample of 2,272 Chinese older adults aged 55 and over was conducted. Hierarchical regression analyses were performed to assess the effects of the size of Chinese communities in Chinese seniors' health. Chinese seniors residing in the community with a small Chinese population reported better physical and mental health than the Chinese seniors residing in communities with a larger Chinese population. The findings were contrary to expectations that health of Chinese seniors should be higher in cities with large Chinese communities. These findings raise new questions for future investigations into the dynamics and impact of ethnic community size, and the importance of studying intragroup differences within ethno-cultural groups to better understand health disparities in ethnic groups.

Landscape Pattern Determines Neighborhood Size and Structure within a Lizard Population

PubMed Central

Ryberg, Wade A.; Hill, Michael T.; Painter, Charles W.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2013-01-01

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches. PMID:23441217

Population and Environment

PubMed Central

de Sherbinin, Alex; Carr, David; Cassels, Susan; Jiang, Leiwen

2009-01-01

The interactions between human population dynamics and the environment have often been viewed mechanistically. This review elucidates the complexities and contextual specificities of population-environment relationships in a number of domains. It explores the ways in which demographers and other social scientists have sought to understand the relationships among a full range of population dynamics (e.g., population size, growth, density, age and sex composition, migration, urbanization, vital rates) and environmental changes. The chapter briefly reviews a number of the theories for understanding population and the environment and then proceeds to provide a state-of-the-art review of studies that have examined population dynamics and their relationship to five environmental issue areas. The review concludes by relating population-environment research to emerging work on human-environment systems. PMID:20011237

Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future

Treesearch

Jennifer K. Costanza; Jiri Hulcr; Frank H. Koch; Todd Earnhardt; Alexa J. McKerrow; Rob R. Dunn; Jaime A. Collazo

2012-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (...

Antagonisms, mutualisms and commensalisms affect outbreak dynamics of the southern pine beetle

Treesearch

Richard W. Hofstetter; James T. Cronin; Kier D. Klepzig; John C. Moser; Matthew P. Ayres

2005-01-01

Feedback from community interactions involving mutualisms are a rarely explored mechanism for generating complex population dynamics. We examined the effects of two linked mutualisms on the population dynamics of a beetle that exhibits outbreak dynamics. One mutualism involves an obligate association between the bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis...

Calcite-accumulating large sulfur bacteria of the genus Achromatium in Sippewissett Salt Marsh

PubMed Central

Salman, Verena; Yang, Tingting; Berben, Tom; Klein, Frieder; Angert, Esther; Teske, Andreas

2015-01-01

Large sulfur bacteria of the genus Achromatium are exceptional among Bacteria and Archaea as they can accumulate high amounts of internal calcite. Although known for more than 100 years, they remain uncultured, and only freshwater populations have been studied so far. Here we investigate a marine population of calcite-accumulating bacteria that is primarily found at the sediment surface of tide pools in a salt marsh, where high sulfide concentrations meet oversaturated oxygen concentrations during the day. Dynamic sulfur cycling by phototrophic sulfide-oxidizing and heterotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria co-occurring in these sediments creates a highly sulfidic environment that we propose induces behavioral differences in the Achromatium population compared with reported migration patterns in a low-sulfide environment. Fluctuating intracellular calcium/sulfur ratios at different depths and times of day indicate a biochemical reaction of the salt marsh Achromatium to diurnal changes in sedimentary redox conditions. We correlate this calcite dynamic with new evidence regarding its formation/mobilization and suggest general implications as well as a possible biological function of calcite accumulation in large bacteria in the sediment environment that is governed by gradients. Finally, we propose a new taxonomic classification of the salt marsh Achromatium based on their adaptation to a significantly different habitat than their freshwater relatives, as indicated by their differential behavior as well as phylogenetic distance on 16S ribosomal RNA gene level. In future studies, whole-genome characterization and additional ecophysiological factors could further support the distinctive position of salt marsh Achromatium. PMID:25909974

Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

PubMed

Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

2013-05-01

To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

Monoxenic liquid culture with Escherichia coli of the free-living nematode Panagrolaimus sp. (strain NFS 24-5), a potential live food candidate for marine fish and shrimp larvae.

PubMed

Ayub, Farhana; Seychelles, Laurent; Strauch, Olaf; Wittke, Martina; Ehlers, Ralf-Udo

2013-09-01

The free-living, bacterial-feeding nematode Panagrolaimus sp. (strain NFS 24-5) has potential for use as live food for marine shrimp and fish larvae. Mass production in liquid culture is a prerequisite for its commercial exploitation. Panagrolaimus sp. was propagated in monoxenic liquid culture on Escherichia coli and parameters, like nematode density, population dynamics and biomass were recorded and compared with life history table data. A mean maximum nematode density of 174,278 mL(-1) and a maximum of 251,000 mL(-1) were recorded on day 17 after inoculation. Highest average biomass was 40 g L(-1) at day 13. The comparison with life history table data indicated that the hypothetical potential of liquid culture is much higher than documented during this investigation. Nematode development is delayed in liquid culture and egg production per female is more than five times lower than reported from life history trait analysis. The latter assessed a nematode generation time of 7.1 days, whereas the process time at maximum nematode density in liquid culture was 16 days indicating that a reduction of the process time can be achieved by further investigating the influence of nematode inoculum density on population development. The results challenge future research to reduce process time and variability and improve population dynamics also during scale-up of the liquid culture process.

The dynamics of avian influenza in western Arctic snow geese: implications for annual and migratory infection patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, Michael D.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Brown, Justin D.; Goldberg, Diana R.; Ip, Hon S.; Baranyuk, Vasily V.

2015-01-01

Wild water birds are the natural reservoir for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, our ability to investigate the epizootiology of AIV in these migratory populations is challenging, and despite intensive worldwide surveillance, remains poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis in Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese Chen caerulescens to investigate AIV serology and infection patterns. We collected nearly 3,000 sera samples from snow geese at 2 breeding colonies in Russia and Canada during 1993-1996 and swab samples from > 4,000 birds at wintering and migration areas in the United States during 2006-2011. We found seroprevalence and annual seroconversion varied considerably among years. Seroconversion and infection rates also differed between snow goose breeding colonies and wintering areas, suggesting that AIV exposure in this gregarious waterfowl species is likely occurring during several phases (migration, wintering and potentially breeding areas) of the annual cycle. We estimated AIV antibody persistence was longer (14 months) in female geese compared to males (6 months). This relatively long period of AIV antibody persistence suggests that subtype-specific serology may be an effective tool for detection of exposure to subtypes associated with highly-pathogenic AIV. Our study provides further evidence of high seroprevalence in Arctic goose populations, and estimates of annual AIV seroconversion and antibody persistence for North American waterfowl. We suggest future AIV studies include serology to help elucidate the epizootiological dynamics of AIV in wild bird populations.

Statistical physics of vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Bauch, Chris T.; Bhattacharyya, Samit; d'Onofrio, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero; Perc, Matjaž; Perra, Nicola; Salathé, Marcel; Zhao, Dawei

2016-12-01

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination-one of the most important preventive measures of modern times-is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research.

Diapause and overwintering of two spruce bark beetle species

PubMed Central

Hansen, E. Matthew; Schopf, Axel; Ragland, Gregory J.; Stauffer, Christian; Bentz, Barbara J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Diapause, a strategy to endure unfavourable conditions (e.g. cold winters) is commonly found in ectothermic organisms and is characterized by an arrest of development and reproduction, a reduction of metabolic rate, and an increased resistance to adversity. Diapause, in addition to adaptations for surviving low winter temperatures, significantly influences phenology, voltinism and ultimately population growth. We review the literature on diapause and overwintering behaviour of two bark beetle species that affect spruce‐dominated forests in the northern hemisphere, and describe and compare how these strategies can influence population dynamics. The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) is the most important forest pest of Norway spruce in Europe. It enters an adult reproductive diapause that might be either facultative or obligate. Obligate diapausing beetles are considered strictly univoltine, entering this dormancy type regardless of environmental cues. Facultative diapausing individuals enter diapause induced by photoperiod, modified by temperature, thus being potentially multivoltine. The spruce beetle Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) infests all spruce species in its natural range in North America. A facultative prepupal diapause is averted by relatively warm temperatures, resulting in a univoltine life cycle, whereas cool temperatures induce prepupal diapause leading to a semivoltine cycle. An adult obligate diapause in D. rufipennis could limit bi‐ or multivoltinism. We discuss and compare the influence of diapause and overwinter survival on voltinism and population dynamics of these two species in a changing climate and provide an outlook on future research. PMID:28979060

Calcite-accumulating large sulfur bacteria of the genus Achromatium in Sippewissett Salt Marsh.

PubMed

Salman, Verena; Yang, Tingting; Berben, Tom; Klein, Frieder; Angert, Esther; Teske, Andreas

2015-11-01

Large sulfur bacteria of the genus Achromatium are exceptional among Bacteria and Archaea as they can accumulate high amounts of internal calcite. Although known for more than 100 years, they remain uncultured, and only freshwater populations have been studied so far. Here we investigate a marine population of calcite-accumulating bacteria that is primarily found at the sediment surface of tide pools in a salt marsh, where high sulfide concentrations meet oversaturated oxygen concentrations during the day. Dynamic sulfur cycling by phototrophic sulfide-oxidizing and heterotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria co-occurring in these sediments creates a highly sulfidic environment that we propose induces behavioral differences in the Achromatium population compared with reported migration patterns in a low-sulfide environment. Fluctuating intracellular calcium/sulfur ratios at different depths and times of day indicate a biochemical reaction of the salt marsh Achromatium to diurnal changes in sedimentary redox conditions. We correlate this calcite dynamic with new evidence regarding its formation/mobilization and suggest general implications as well as a possible biological function of calcite accumulation in large bacteria in the sediment environment that is governed by gradients. Finally, we propose a new taxonomic classification of the salt marsh Achromatium based on their adaptation to a significantly different habitat than their freshwater relatives, as indicated by their differential behavior as well as phylogenetic distance on 16S ribosomal RNA gene level. In future studies, whole-genome characterization and additional ecophysiological factors could further support the distinctive position of salt marsh Achromatium.

Population modeling for pesticide risk assessment of threatened species-A case study of a terrestrial plant, Boltonia decurrens.

PubMed

Schmolke, Amelie; Brain, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille; Perkins, Daniel; Forbes, Valery

2017-02-01

Although population models are recognized as necessary tools in the ecological risk assessment of pesticides, particularly for species listed under the Endangered Species Act, their application in this context is currently limited to very few cases. The authors developed a detailed, individual-based population model for a threatened plant species, the decurrent false aster (Boltonia decurrens), for application in pesticide risk assessment. Floods and competition with other plant species are known factors that drive the species' population dynamics and were included in the model approach. The authors use the model to compare the population-level effects of 5 toxicity surrogates applied to B. decurrens under varying environmental conditions. The model results suggest that the environmental conditions under which herbicide applications occur may have a higher impact on populations than organism-level sensitivities to an herbicide within a realistic range. Indirect effects may be as important as the direct effects of herbicide applications by shifting competition strength if competing species have different sensitivities to the herbicide. The model approach provides a case study for population-level risk assessments of listed species. Population-level effects of herbicides can be assessed in a realistic and species-specific context, and uncertainties can be addressed explicitly. The authors discuss how their approach can inform the future development and application of modeling for population-level risk assessments of listed species, and ecological risk assessment in general. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:480-491. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

PubMed Central

Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change. PMID:21738573

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

Population, Education, and Children's Futures. Fastback 150.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bjork, Robert M.; Fraser, Stewart E.

This monograph discusses world population problems, examines the underlying concepts and issues in population education, and looks at the future. The monograph begins by describing an attempt at population education in a village of India. Eight guiding concepts that are considered to be essential for population educators are then discussed. These…

The Pathologist Workforce in the United States: II. An Interactive Modeling Tool for Analyzing Future Qualitative and Quantitative Staffing Demands for Services.

PubMed

Robboy, Stanley J; Gupta, Saurabh; Crawford, James M; Cohen, Michael B; Karcher, Donald S; Leonard, Debra G B; Magnani, Barbarajean; Novis, David A; Prystowsky, Michael B; Powell, Suzanne Z; Gross, David J; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen

2015-11-01

Pathologists are physicians who make diagnoses based on interpretation of tissue and cellular specimens (surgical/cytopathology, molecular/genomic pathology, autopsy), provide medical leadership and consultation for laboratory medicine, and are integral members of their institutions' interdisciplinary patient care teams. To develop a dynamic modeling tool to examine how individual factors and practice variables can forecast demand for pathologist services. Build and test a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates about current and new pathologist efforts. Most pathologists' efforts focus on anatomic (52%), laboratory (14%), and other direct services (8%) for individual patients. Population-focused services (12%) (eg, laboratory medical direction) and other professional responsibilities (14%) (eg, teaching, research, and hospital committees) consume the rest of their time. Modeling scenarios were used to assess the need to increase or decrease efforts related globally to the Affordable Care Act, and specifically, to genomic medicine, laboratory consolidation, laboratory medical direction, and new areas where pathologists' expertise can add value. Our modeling tool allows pathologists, educators, and policy experts to assess how various factors may affect demand for pathologists' services. These factors include an aging population, advances in biomedical technology, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based medical care systems. In the future, pathologists will likely have to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practicing medicine to accommodate new value-based delivery models.

Latina food patterns in the United States: a qualitative metasynthesis.

PubMed

Gerchow, Lauren; Tagliaferro, Barbara; Squires, Allison; Nicholson, Joey; Savarimuthu, Stella M; Gutnick, Damara; Jay, Melanie

2014-01-01

Obesity disproportionately affects Latinas living in the United States, and cultural food patterns contribute to this health concern. The aim of this study was to synthesize the qualitative results of research regarding Latina food patterns in order to (a) identify common patterns across Latino culture and within Latino subcultures and (b) inform future research by determining gaps in the literature. A systematic search of three databases produced 13 studies (15 manuscripts) that met the inclusion criteria for review. The Critical Appraisal Skills Program tool and the recommendations of Squires for evaluating translation methods in qualitative research were applied to appraise study quality. Authors coded through directed content analysis and an adaptation of the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument coding template to extract themes. Coding focused on food patterns, obesity, population breakdown, immigration, acculturation, and barriers and facilitators to healthy eating. Other themes and categories emerged from this process to complement this approach. Major findings included the following: (a) Immigration driven changes in scheduling, food choice, socioeconomic status, and family dynamics shape the complex psychology behind healthy food choices for Latina women; (b) in Latina populations, barriers and facilitators to healthy lifestyle choices around food are complex; and (c) there is a clear need to differentiate Latino populations by country of origin in future qualitative studies on eating behavior. Healthcare providers need to recognize the complex influences behind eating behaviors among immigrant Latinas in order to design effective behavior change and goal-setting programs to support healthy lifestyles.

Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Imbahale, Susan S; Thomas, Matthew B; Takken, Willem

2010-07-09

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

Phosphorus Import Dependency and Recycling Potential in the Global Phosphorus Mosaic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powers, S. M.

2017-12-01

Nations differ widely in terms of recent P consumption trends and fertilizer trade dependencies, reflecting dynamic and globally uneven P fertilizer production, consumption, export, and import. Recovered P from urban and agricultural wastes can provide renewable sources that supplant the need to import P fertilizer, but to date, research on P recycling potential has been highly spatially segregated. Understanding of the global distribution of P recycling potential and options, and how these intersect with P import dependencies, could be used to guide long-term, spatially-prioritized planning for P, food, and water security. We integrated recent data on national P fertilizer flows, subnational P use, and landscape features within a global grid to understand how these constraints on future options for P use are distributed worldwide. This analysis illustrates several regions where combinations of high population density, cropland extent, and manure P production provide islands of opportunity for P recycling in mixed crop-livestock and populous agricultural areas. At the same time, nations with lower import ratios (net P import:consumption) contained a disproportionately large share of manure-rich croplands and populous croplands. As a further demonstration of the kinds of integrated comparisons that are possible using global land use data sets in combination with P, worldwide similarities and distinctions for P emerged from a cluster analysis. These kinds of socioeconomic-geographic patterns may foretell distinct P futures as societies address spatially uneven options for P, food, and water security.

Soybean Yield and Heterodera glycines Population Dynamics as Affected by Cultural Practices in Major Production Areas of the United States and Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little information is available on the interactive effects of tillage and row spacing on yield of soybean and population dynamics of H. glycines. This study investigated the effects of rotation of soybean and corn, tillage, row spacing, and cultivar on yield of soybean and population dynamics of H. ...

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Molecular genetics at the Fort Collins Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oyler-McCance, S.J.; Stevens, P.D.

2011-01-01

The Fort Collins Science Center operates a molecular genetic and systematics research facility (FORT Molecular Ecology Laboratory) that uses molecular genetic tools to provide genetic information needed to inform natural resource management decisions. For many wildlife species, the data generated have become increasingly important in the development of their long-term management strategies, leading to a better understanding of species diversity, population dynamics and ecology, and future conservation and management needs. The Molecular Ecology Lab serves Federal research and resource management agencies by developing scientifically rigorous research programs using nuclear, mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA to help address many of today's conservation biology and natural resource management issues.

Synergies Between Asteroseismology and Exoplanetary Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, Daniel

Over the past decade asteroseismology has become a powerful method to systematically characterize host stars and dynamical architectures of exoplanet systems. In this contribution I review current key synergies between asteroseismology and exoplanetary science such as the precise determination of planet radii and ages, the measurement of orbital eccentricities, stellar obliquities and their impact on hot Jupiter formation theories, and the importance of asteroseismology on spectroscopic analyses of exoplanet hosts. I also give an outlook on future synergies such as the characterization of sub-Neptune-size planets orbiting solar-type stars, the study of planet populations orbiting evolved stars, and the determination of ages of intermediate-mass stars hosting directly imaged planets.

Strong optical field ionisation of solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, C. R.; Ben Taher, A.; Brabec, T.

2017-11-01

Population transfer from the valence to conduction band in the presence of an intense laser field is explored theoretically in semiconductors and dielectrics. Experiments performed on dielectrics exposed to an intense laser field have divulged a population dynamics between valence and conduction band that differs from that observed in semiconductors. Our paper explores two aspects of ionisation in solids. (i) Contemporary ionisation theories do not take account of the coupling between the valence and conduction bands resulting in the absence the dynamic Stark shift. Our single-particle analysis identifies the absence of the dynamic Stark shift as a possible cause for the contrasting ionisation behaviours observed in dielectric and semiconductor materials. The dynamic Stark shift results in an increased bandgap as the laser intensity is increased. This suppresses ionisation to an extent where the main population dynamics results from virtual oscillations in the conduction band population. The dynamic Stark shift mainly affects larger bandgap materials which can be exposed to decidedly higher laser intensities. (ii) In the presence of laser dressed virtual population of the conduction band, elastic collisions potentially transmute virtual into real population resulting in ionisation. This process is explored in the context of the relaxation time approximation.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Dancing to the rhythms of the Pleistocene? Early Middle Paleolithic population dynamics in NW Iberia (Duero Basin and Cantabrian Region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Yustos, Policarpo; Diez Martín, Fernando

2015-08-01

The Northwest of Iberia has yielded one of the most complete European Middle Paleolithic records. Despite this wealth of information, very little is known about population dynamics during this period. For that reason, the main concern of this paper is to provide socio-environmental models that may help explain Early Middle Paleolithic (EMP) population dynamics in NW Iberia, assessing to what extent they were shaped by climate forces. The archaeological record is analyzed on the basis of the heuristics of ecological models, already employed in the European Pleistocene record but never at a regional scale, in order to detect long-term changes in the composition of EMP populations, and the environmental, biological and sociocultural process influencing those changes. According to the models proposed, we have detected a long-term population dynamic between MIS 11 and MIS 6, characterized by low environmental stress, high biological productivity, interaction among populations and sociocultural complexity. Eventually, this population dynamic was broken due to an extreme climate phase in late MIS 6 that had a profound impact on populations and sociocultural structures. As a result, the Upper Pleistocene population of NW Iberia was concentrated in the Cantabrian region. This area became an isolated Neanderthal glacial refugium that hosted a population with different origins and fragile long-term demographic stability.

Effects of Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations on mangrove population dynamics: a lesson from Sonneratia alba.

PubMed

Yang, Yuchen; Li, Jianfang; Yang, Shuhuan; Li, Xinnian; Fang, Lu; Zhong, Cairong; Duke, Norman C; Zhou, Renchao; Shi, Suhua

2017-01-18

A large-scale systematical investigation of the influence of Pleistocene climate oscillation on mangrove population dynamics could enrich our knowledge about the evolutionary history during times of historical climate change, which in turn may provide important information for their conservation. In this study, phylogeography of a mangrove tree Sonneratia alba was studied by sequencing three chloroplast fragments and seven nuclear genes. A low level of genetic diversity at the population level was detected across its range, especially at the range margins, which was mainly attributed to the steep sea-level drop and associated climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene glacial periods. Extremely small effective population size (Ne) was inferred in populations from both eastern and western Malay Peninsula (44 and 396, respectively), mirroring the fragility of mangrove plants and their paucity of robustness against future climate perturbations and human activity. Two major genetic lineages of high divergence were identified in the two mangrove biodiversity centres: the Indo-Malesia and Australasia regions. The estimated splitting time between these two lineages was 3.153 million year ago (MYA), suggesting a role for pre-Pleistocene events in shaping the major diversity patterns of mangrove species. Within the Indo-Malesia region, a subdivision was implicated between the South China Sea (SCS) and the remaining area with a divergence time of 1.874 MYA, corresponding to glacial vicariance when the emerged Sunda Shelf halted genetic exchange between the western and eastern coasts of the Malay Peninsula during Pleistocene sea-level drops. Notably, genetic admixture was observed in populations at the boundary regions, especially in the two populations near the Malacca Strait, indicating secondary contact between divergent lineages during interglacial periods. These interregional genetic exchanges provided ample opportunity for the re-use of standing genetic variation, which could facilitate mangrove establishment and adaptation in new habitats, especially in the context of global climate changes. Phylogeogrpahic analysis in this study reveal that Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations had profound influence on population differentiation of the mangrove tree S. alba. Our study highlights the fragility of mangrove plants and offers a guide for the conservation of coastal mangrove communities experiencing ongoing changes in sea-level.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

Data center thermal management

DOEpatents

Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei

2016-02-09

Historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data and dynamic temperature sensor measurement data may be used to predict temperature. A first formulation may be derived based on the historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data for determining a temperature at any point in 3-dimensional space. The dynamic temperature sensor measurement data may be calibrated based on the historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data at a corresponding historical time. Sensor temperature data at a plurality of sensor locations may be predicted for a future time based on the calibrated dynamic temperature sensor measurement data. A three-dimensional temperature spatial distribution associated with the future time may be generated based on the forecasted sensor temperature data and the first formulation. The three-dimensional temperature spatial distribution associated with the future time may be projected to a two-dimensional temperature distribution, and temperature in the future time for a selected space location may be forecasted dynamically based on said two-dimensional temperature distribution.

Transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils: localized lineage replacement and host population response

PubMed Central

Hamede, Rodrigo K.; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Barmuta, Leon A.; Murchison, Elizabeth P.; Jones, Menna E.

2015-01-01

Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) is a clonally transmissible cancer threatening the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) with extinction. Live cancer cells are the infectious agent, transmitted to new hosts when individuals bite each other. Over the 18 years since DFTD was first observed, distinct genetic and karyotypic sublineages have evolved. In this longitudinal study, we investigate the associations between tumour karyotype, epidemic patterns and host demographic response to the disease. Reduced host population effects and low DFTD infection rates were associated with high prevalence of tetraploid tumours. Subsequent replacement by a diploid variant of DFTD coincided with a rapid increase in disease prevalence, population decline and reduced mean age of the population. Our results suggest a role for tumour genetics in DFTD transmission dynamics and epidemic outcome. Future research, for this and other highly pathogenic emerging infectious diseases, should focus on understanding the evolution of host and pathogen genotypes, their effects on susceptibility and tolerance to infection, and their implications for designing novel genetic management strategies. This study provides evidence for a rapid localized lineage replacement occurring within a transmissible cancer epidemic and highlights the possibility that distinct DFTD genetic lineages may harbour traits that influence pathogen fitness. PMID:26336167