Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Ecological and evolutionary influences on body size and shape in the Galápagos marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus).

PubMed

Chiari, Ylenia; Glaberman, Scott; Tarroso, Pedro; Caccone, Adalgisa; Claude, Julien

2016-07-01

Oceanic islands are often inhabited by endemic species that have undergone substantial morphological evolutionary change due to processes of multiple colonizations from various source populations, dispersal, and local adaptation. Galápagos marine iguanas are an example of an island endemic exhibiting high morphological diversity, including substantial body size variation among populations and sexes, but the causes and magnitude of this variation are not well understood. We obtained morphological measurements from marine iguanas throughout their distribution range. These data were combined with genetic and local environmental data from each population to investigate the effects of evolutionary history and environmental conditions on body size and shape variation and sexual dimorphism. Our results indicate that body size and shape are highly variable among populations. Sea surface temperature and island perimeter, but not evolutionary history as depicted by phylogeographic patterns in this species, explain variation in body size among populations. Conversely, evolutionary history, but not environmental parameters or island size, was found to influence variation in body shape among populations. Finally, in all populations except one, we found strong sexual dimorphism in body size and shape in which males are larger, with higher heads than females, while females have longer heads than males. Differences among populations suggest that plasticity and/or genetic adaptation may shape body size and shape variation in marine iguanas. This study will help target future investigations to address the contribution of plasticity versus genetic adaptation on size and shape variation in marine iguanas.

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hines, James E.

1984-01-01

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

The history of effective population size and genetic diversity in the Yellowstone grizzly (Ursus arctos): implications for conservation.

PubMed

Miller, Craig R; Waits, Lisette P

2003-04-01

Protein, mtDNA, and nuclear microsatellite DNA analyses have demonstrated that the Yellowstone grizzly bear has low levels of genetic variability compared with other Ursus arctos populations. Researchers have attributed this difference to inbreeding during a century of anthropogenic isolation and population size reduction. We test this hypothesis and assess the seriousness of genetic threats by generating microsatellite data for 110 museum specimens collected between 1912 and 1981. A loss of variability is detected, but it is much less severe than hypothesized. Variance in allele frequencies over time is used to estimate an effective population size of approximately 80 across the 20th century and >100 currently. The viability of the population is unlikely to be substantially reduced by genetic factors in the next several generations. However, gene flow from outside populations will be beneficial in avoiding inbreeding and the erosion of genetic diversity in the future.

Development and human resources in the Islamic world: a study of selected countries.

PubMed

Duza, M B

1987-01-01

"The present paper attempts to provide an analytical profile of development and human resources in [12] selected [Islamic] countries." The countries--Bangladesh, Somalia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Malaysia, Algeria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates--vary in income levels from low to high and in population size from 1 million to 159 million. Using data from the World Bank and the Population Council, comparisons are made on the basis of mortality and fertility levels, family size, income, urbanization, labor force size and growth, education, nutrition, and health. Governmental policy changes and future directions are discussed. excerpt

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. Methods We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. Results The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Conclusions Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. PMID:25733558

Genetic approaches to understanding the population-level impact of wind energy development on migratory bats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vonhof, Maarten J.; Russell, Amy L.

Documented fatalities of bats at wind turbines have raised serious concerns about the future impacts of increased wind power development on populations of migratory bat species. Yet there is little data on bat population sizes and trends to provide context for understanding the consequences of mortality due to wind power development. Using a large dataset of both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation for eastern red bats, we demonstrated that: 1) this species forms a single, panmictic population across their range with no evidence for the historical use of divergent migratory pathways by any portion of the population; 2) the effectivemore » size of this population is in the hundreds of thousands to millions; and 3) for large populations, genetic diversity measures and at least one coalescent method are insensitive to even very high rates of population decline over long time scales and until population size has become very small. Our data provide important context for understanding the population-level impacts of wind power development on affected bat species.« less

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

The relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and population size: an assessment of regional and temporal variation, 1960-2005.

PubMed

Jorgenson, Andrew K; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.

Ecology and biology of paddlefish in North America: historical perspectives, management approaches, and research priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, Cecil A.; Zigler, Stephen J.

2000-01-01

Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula, Polyodontidae) are large, mostly-riverine fish that once were abundant in medium- to large-sized river systems throughout much of the central United States. Concern for paddlefish populations has grown from a regional fisheries issue to one of national importance for the United States. In 1989, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) was petitioned to list paddlefish as a federally threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. The petition was not granted, primarily because of a lack of empirical data on paddlefish population size, age structure, growth, or harvest rates across the present 22-state range. Nonetheless, concern for paddlefish populations prompted the USFWS to recommend that paddlefish be protected through the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). The addition of paddlefish to Appendix II of CITES, which was approved in March 1992, provides a mechanism to curtail illegal trade in paddlefish and their parts and supports a variety of conservation plans. Paddlefish populations have been negatively affected by overharvest, river modifications, and pollution, but the paddlefish still occupies much of its historic range and most extant populations seem to be stable. Although many facets of paddlefish biology and ecology are well understood, the lack of information on larval and juvenile ecology, mechanisms that determine recruitment, population size and vital rates, interjurisdictional movements, and the effects of anthropogenic activities present significant obstacles for managing paddlefish populations. Questions about the size and structure of local populations, and how such populations are affected by navigation traffic, dams, and pollution are regarded as medium priority areas for future research. The availability of suitable spawning habitat and overall reproductive success in impounded rivers are unknown and represent critical areas for future research. Research on reproductive and recruitment success in impounded rivers have significant implications for managing paddlefish, as rivers are modified further for human use.

Genetic variation assessed with microsatellites in mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xubo; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

2016-12-01

Four successive mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, selected for faster growth in breeding programs in China were examined at ten polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess the level of allelic diversity and estimate the effective population size. These data were compared with those of their base population. The results showed that the genetic variation of the four generations were maintained at high levels with an average allelic richness of 18.8-20.6, and a mean expected heterozygosity of 0.902-0.921. They were not reduced compared with those of their base population. Estimated effective population sizes based on temporal variances in microsatellite frequencies were smaller to that of sex ratio-corrected broodstock count estimates. Using a relatively large number of broodstock and keeping an equal sex ratio in the broodstock each generation may have contributed to retaining the original genetic diversity and maintaining relatively large effective population size. The results obtained in this study showed that the genetic variation was not affected greatly by mass selection progress and high genetic variation still existed in the mass selection lines, suggesting that there is still potential for increasing the gains in future generations of C. gigas. The present study provided important information for future genetic improvement by selective breeding, and for the design of suitable management guidelines for genetic breeding of C. gigas.

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

2011-01-01

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, F.J.; Dorazio, R.M.; Rice, K.G.; Cherkiss, M.; Jeffery, B.

2011-01-01

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001-2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations. ?? 2011 US Government.

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

The Future of the American Family [And] Prospective Trends in the Size and Structure of the Elderly Population, Impact of Mortality Trends, and Some Implications. Current Population Reports, Special Studies Series P-23, No. 78.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glick, Paul C.; Siegel, Jacob S.

The document contains two reports on consequences of population trends for families and older adults in the United States. The reports were submitted as testimony before congressional committees on population and aging. The first report discusses projected changes in American family life in light of population growth, enrollment in schools and…

Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colby, Sandra L.; Ortman, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the…

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-10-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes. PMID:27703191

Population size and relatedness affect fitness of a self-incompatible invasive plant.

PubMed

Elam, Diane R; Ridley, Caroline E; Goodell, Karen; Ellstrand, Norman C

2007-01-09

One of the lingering paradoxes in invasion biology is how founder populations of an introduced species are able to overcome the limitations of small size and, in a "reversal of fortune," proliferate in a new habitat. The transition from colonist to invader is especially enigmatic for self-incompatible species, which must find a mate to reproduce. In small populations, the inability to find a mate can result in the Allee effect, a positive relationship between individual fitness and population size or density. Theoretically, the Allee effect should be common in founder populations of self-incompatible colonizing species and may account for the high rate of failed introductions, but little supporting evidence exists. We created a field experiment to test whether the Allee effect affects the maternal fitness of a self-incompatible invasive species, wild radish (Raphanus sativus). We created populations of varying size and relatedness. We measured maternal fitness in terms of both fruit set per flower and seed number per fruit. We found that both population size and the level of genetic relatedness among individuals influence maternal reproductive success. Our results explicitly define an ecological genetic obstacle faced by populations of an exotic species on its way to becoming invasive. Such a mechanistic understanding of the invasions of species that require a mate can and should be exploited for both controlling current outbreaks and reducing their frequency in the future.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

2008-01-01

Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from the Caribbean. We anticipate that this method could also be useful for in-water studies of well defined populations.

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests

PubMed Central

Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John E.; Farfán, Miguel A.; Lewis, Jerome; Hewlett, Barry; Breuer, Thomas; Carpaneto, Giuseppe M.; Fernández, María; Germi, Francesco; Hattori, Shiho; Head, Josephine; Ichikawa, Mitsuo; Kitanaishi, Koichi; Knights, Jessica; Matsuura, Naoki; Migliano, Andrea; Nese, Barbara; Noss, Andrew; Ekoumou, Dieudonné Ongbwa; Paulin, Pascale; Real, Raimundo; Riddell, Mike; Stevenson, Edward G. J.; Toda, Mikako; Vargas, J. Mario; Yasuoka, Hirokazu; Nasi, Robert

2016-01-01

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples’ culture and lifestyles. PMID:26735953

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests.

PubMed

Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John E; Farfán, Miguel A; Lewis, Jerome; Hewlett, Barry; Breuer, Thomas; Carpaneto, Giuseppe M; Fernández, María; Germi, Francesco; Hattori, Shiho; Head, Josephine; Ichikawa, Mitsuo; Kitanaishi, Koichi; Knights, Jessica; Matsuura, Naoki; Migliano, Andrea; Nese, Barbara; Noss, Andrew; Ekoumou, Dieudonné Ongbwa; Paulin, Pascale; Real, Raimundo; Riddell, Mike; Stevenson, Edward G J; Toda, Mikako; Vargas, J Mario; Yasuoka, Hirokazu; Nasi, Robert

2016-01-01

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples' culture and lifestyles.

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources.

PubMed

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J

2015-03-01

Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Unpredictable food supply modifies costs of reproduction and hampers individual optimization.

PubMed

Török, János; Hegyi, Gergely; Tóth, László; Könczey, Réka

2004-11-01

Investment into the current reproductive attempt is thought to be at the expense of survival and/or future reproduction. Individuals are therefore expected to adjust their decisions to their physiological state and predictable aspects of environmental quality. The main predictions of the individual optimization hypothesis for bird clutch sizes are: (1) an increase in the number of recruits with an increasing number of eggs in natural broods, with no corresponding impairment of parental survival or future reproduction, and (2) a decrease in the fitness of parents in response to both negative and positive brood size manipulation, as a result of a low number of recruits, poor future reproduction of parents, or both. We analysed environmental influences on costs and optimization of reproduction on 6 years of natural and experimentally manipulated broods in a Central European population of the collared flycatcher. Based on dramatic differences in caterpillar availability, we classified breeding seasons as average and rich food years. The categorization was substantiated by the majority of present and future fitness components of adults and offspring. Neither observational nor experimental data supported the individual optimization hypothesis, in contrast to a Scandinavian population of the species. The quality of fledglings deteriorated, and the number of recruits did not increase with natural clutch size. Manipulation revealed significant costs of reproduction to female parents in terms of future reproductive potential. However, the influence of manipulation on recruitment was linear, with no significant polynomial effect. The number of recruits increased with manipulation in rich food years and tended to decrease in average years, so control broods did not recruit more young than manipulated broods in any of the year types. This indicates that females did not optimize their clutch size, and that they generally laid fewer eggs than optimal in rich food years. Mean yearly clutch size did not follow food availability, which suggests that females cannot predict food supply of the brood-rearing period at the beginning of the season. This lack of information on future food conditions seems to prevent them from accurately estimating their optimal clutch size for each season. Our results suggest that individual optimization may not be a general pattern even within a species, and alternative mechanisms are needed to explain clutch size variation.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

One-step estimation of networked population size: Respondent-driven capture-recapture with anonymity.

PubMed

Khan, Bilal; Lee, Hsuan-Wei; Fellows, Ian; Dombrowski, Kirk

2018-01-01

Size estimation is particularly important for populations whose members experience disproportionate health issues or pose elevated health risks to the ambient social structures in which they are embedded. Efforts to derive size estimates are often frustrated when the population is hidden or hard-to-reach in ways that preclude conventional survey strategies, as is the case when social stigma is associated with group membership or when group members are involved in illegal activities. This paper extends prior research on the problem of network population size estimation, building on established survey/sampling methodologies commonly used with hard-to-reach groups. Three novel one-step, network-based population size estimators are presented, for use in the context of uniform random sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and when networks exhibit significant clustering effects. We give provably sufficient conditions for the consistency of these estimators in large configuration networks. Simulation experiments across a wide range of synthetic network topologies validate the performance of the estimators, which also perform well on a real-world location-based social networking data set with significant clustering. Finally, the proposed schemes are extended to allow them to be used in settings where participant anonymity is required. Systematic experiments show favorable tradeoffs between anonymity guarantees and estimator performance. Taken together, we demonstrate that reasonable population size estimates are derived from anonymous respondent driven samples of 250-750 individuals, within ambient populations of 5,000-40,000. The method thus represents a novel and cost-effective means for health planners and those agencies concerned with health and disease surveillance to estimate the size of hidden populations. We discuss limitations and future work in the concluding section.

Lizards on newly created islands independently and rapidly adapt in morphology and diet

PubMed Central

Eloy de Amorim, Mariana; Schoener, Thomas W.; Santoro, Guilherme Ramalho Chagas Cataldi; Lins, Anna Carolina Ramalho; Piovia-Scott, Jonah; Brandão, Reuber Albuquerque

2017-01-01

Rapid adaptive changes can result from the drastic alterations humans impose on ecosystems. For example, flooding large areas for hydroelectric dams converts mountaintops into islands and leaves surviving populations in a new environment. We report differences in morphology and diet of the termite-eating gecko Gymnodactylus amarali between five such newly created islands and five nearby mainland sites located in the Brazilian Cerrado, a biodiversity hotspot. Mean prey size and dietary prey-size breadth were larger on islands than mainlands, expected because four larger lizard species that also consume termites, but presumably prefer larger prey, went extinct on the islands. In addition, island populations had larger heads relative to their body length than mainland populations; larger heads are more suited to the larger prey taken, and disproportionately larger heads allow that functional advantage without an increase in energetic requirements resulting from larger body size. Parallel morphological evolution is strongly suggested, because there are indications that, before flooding, relative head size did not differ between future island and future mainland sites. Females and males showed the same trend of relatively larger heads on islands, so the difference between island and mainland sites is unlikely to be due to greater male–male competition for mates on islands. We thus discovered a very fast (at most 15 y) case of independent parallel adaptive change in response to catastrophic human disturbance. PMID:28760959

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

2010-01-01

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Generalizing the Network Scale-Up Method: A New Estimator for the Size of Hidden Populations*

PubMed Central

Feehan, Dennis M.; Salganik, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

The network scale-up method enables researchers to estimate the size of hidden populations, such as drug injectors and sex workers, using sampled social network data. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it depends on problematic modeling assumptions. We propose a new generalized scale-up estimator that can be used in settings with non-random social mixing and imperfect awareness about membership in the hidden population. Further, the new estimator can be used when data are collected via complex sample designs and from incomplete sampling frames. However, the generalized scale-up estimator also requires data from two samples: one from the frame population and one from the hidden population. In some situations these data from the hidden population can be collected by adding a small number of questions to already planned studies. For other situations, we develop interpretable adjustment factors that can be applied to the basic scale-up estimator. We conclude with practical recommendations for the design and analysis of future studies. PMID:29375167

Inferring population structure and demographic history using Y-STR data from worldwide populations.

PubMed

Xu, Hongyang; Wang, Chuan-Chao; Shrestha, Rukesh; Wang, Ling-Xiang; Zhang, Manfei; He, Yungang; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K; Jin, Li; Li, Hui

2015-02-01

The Y chromosome is one of the best genetic materials to explore the evolutionary history of human populations. Global analyses of Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) data can reveal very interesting world population structures and histories. However, previous Y-STR works tended to focus on small geographical ranges or only included limited sample sizes. In this study, we have investigated population structure and demographic history using 17 Y chromosomal STRs data of 979 males from 44 worldwide populations. The largest genetic distances have been observed between pairs of African and non-African populations. American populations with the lowest genetic diversities also showed large genetic distances and coancestry coefficients with other populations, whereas Eurasian populations displayed close genetic affinities. African populations tend to have the oldest time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs), the largest effective population sizes and the earliest expansion times, whereas the American, Siberian, Melanesian, and isolated Atayal populations have the most recent TMRCAs and expansion times, and the smallest effective population sizes. This clear geographic pattern is well consistent with serial founder model for the origin of populations outside Africa. The Y-STR dataset presented here provides the most detailed view of worldwide population structure and human male demographic history, and additionally will be of great benefit to future forensic applications and population genetic studies.

The Relationship between National-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population Size: An Assessment of Regional and Temporal Variation, 1960–2005

PubMed Central

Jorgenson, Andrew K.; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region. PMID:23437323

Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

PubMed

Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

2018-01-30

Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

Continuous Adaptive Population Reduction (CAPR) for Differential Evolution Optimization.

PubMed

Wong, Ieong; Liu, Wenjia; Ho, Chih-Ming; Ding, Xianting

2017-06-01

Differential evolution (DE) has been applied extensively in drug combination optimization studies in the past decade. It allows for identification of desired drug combinations with minimal experimental effort. This article proposes an adaptive population-sizing method for the DE algorithm. Our new method presents improvements in terms of efficiency and convergence over the original DE algorithm and constant stepwise population reduction-based DE algorithm, which would lead to a reduced number of cells and animals required to identify an optimal drug combination. The method continuously adjusts the reduction of the population size in accordance with the stage of the optimization process. Our adaptive scheme limits the population reduction to occur only at the exploitation stage. We believe that continuously adjusting for a more effective population size during the evolutionary process is the major reason for the significant improvement in the convergence speed of the DE algorithm. The performance of the method is evaluated through a set of unimodal and multimodal benchmark functions. In combining with self-adaptive schemes for mutation and crossover constants, this adaptive population reduction method can help shed light on the future direction of a completely parameter tune-free self-adaptive DE algorithm.

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer Chyi; Hall, Doyle T.

2013-01-01

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

COLLISIONAL EVOLUTION OF ULTRA-WIDE TRANS-NEPTUNIAN BINARIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, Alex H.; Kavelaars, J. J., E-mail: alexhp@uvic.ca

2012-01-10

The widely separated, near-equal mass binaries hosted by the cold classical Kuiper Belt are delicately bound and subject to disruption by many perturbing processes. We use analytical arguments and numerical simulations to determine their collisional lifetimes given various impactor size distributions and include the effects of mass loss and multiple impacts over the lifetime of each system. These collisional lifetimes constrain the population of small (R {approx}> 1 km) objects currently residing in the Kuiper Belt and confirm that the size distribution slope at small size cannot be excessively steep-likely q {approx}< 3.5. We track mutual semimajor axis, inclination, andmore » eccentricity evolution through our simulations and show that it is unlikely that the wide binary population represents an evolved tail of the primordially tight binary population. We find that if the wide binaries are a collisionally eroded population, their primordial mutual orbit planes must have preferred to lie in the plane of the solar system. Finally, we find that current limits on the size distribution at small radii remain high enough that the prospect of detecting dust-producing collisions in real time in the Kuiper Belt with future optical surveys is feasible.« less

Simulated effects of recruitment variability, exploitation, and reduced habitat area on the muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

2007-01-01

The genetically unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabiting Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, is potentially at risk for loss of genetic variability and long-term viability. Shoepack Lake has been subject to dramatic surface area changes from the construction of an outlet dam by beavers Castor canadensis and its subsequent failure. We simulated the long-term dynamics of this population in response to recruitment variation, increased exploitation, and reduced habitat area. We then estimated the effective population size of the simulated population and evaluated potential threats to long-term viability, based on which we recommend management actions to help preserve the long-term viability of the population. Simulations based on the population size and habitat area at the beginning of a companion study resulted in an effective population size that was generally above the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability, except when fishing mortality was increased. Simulations based on the reduced habitat area after the beaver dam failure and our assumption of a proportional reduction in population size resulted in an effective population size that was generally below the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability. Our results identified two potential threats to the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population, reduction in habitat area and exploitation. Increased exploitation can be prevented through traditional fishery management approaches such as the adoption of no-kill, barbless hook, and limited entry regulations. Maintenance of the greatest possible habitat area and prevention of future habitat area reductions will require maintenance of the outlet dam built by beavers. Our study should enhance the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population and illustrates a useful approach for other unique populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Prediction of anthropometric accommodation in aircraft cockpits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zehner, Gregory Franklin

Designing aircraft cockpits to accommodate the wide range of body sizes existing in the U.S. population has always been a difficult problem for Crewstation Engineers. The approach taken in the design of military aircraft has been to restrict the range of body sizes allowed into flight training, and then to develop standards and specifications to ensure that the majority of the pilots are accommodated. Accommodation in this instance is defined as the ability to: (1) Adequately see, reach, and actuate controls; (2) Have external visual fields so that the pilot can see to land, clear for other aircraft, and perform a wide variety of missions (ground support/attack or air to air combat); and (3) Finally, if problems arise, the pilot has to be able to escape safely. Each of these areas is directly affected by the body size of the pilot. Unfortunately, accommodation problems persist and may get worse. Currently the USAF is considering relaxing body size entrance requirements so that smaller and larger people could become pilots. This will make existing accommodation problems much worse. This dissertation describes a methodology for correcting this problem and demonstrates the method by predicting pilot fit and performance in the USAF T-38A aircraft based on anthropometric data. The methods described can be applied to a variety of design applications where fitting the human operator into a system is a major concern. A systematic approach is described which includes: defining the user population, setting functional requirements that operators must be able to perform, testing the ability of the user population to perform the functional requirements, and developing predictive equations for selecting future users of the system. Also described is a process for the development of new anthropometric design criteria and cockpit design methods that assure body size accommodation is improved in the future.

The size of an ethno-cultural community as a social determinant of health for Chinese seniors.

PubMed

Chau, Shirley; Lai, Daniel W L

2011-12-01

The present study investigated the link between the sizes of the Chinese community to the health of Chinese seniors in Canada. A secondary data analysis of survey data from a representative sample of 2,272 Chinese older adults aged 55 and over was conducted. Hierarchical regression analyses were performed to assess the effects of the size of Chinese communities in Chinese seniors' health. Chinese seniors residing in the community with a small Chinese population reported better physical and mental health than the Chinese seniors residing in communities with a larger Chinese population. The findings were contrary to expectations that health of Chinese seniors should be higher in cities with large Chinese communities. These findings raise new questions for future investigations into the dynamics and impact of ethnic community size, and the importance of studying intragroup differences within ethno-cultural groups to better understand health disparities in ethnic groups.

Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

PubMed

Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

2014-06-01

Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in Black-legged Tick Population in New England with Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Huber, M.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is one of the most frequently reported vector-borne diseases in the United States. In the Northeastern United States, vector transmission is maintained in a horizontal transmission cycle between the vector, the black-legged ticks, and the vertebrate reservoir hosts, which include white-tailed deer, rodents and other medium to large sized mammals. Predicting how vector populations change with future climate change is critical to understanding disease spread in the future, and for developing suitable regional adaptation strategies. For the United States, these predictions have mostly been made using regressions based on field and lab studies, or using spatial suitability studies. However, the relation between tick populations at various life-cycle stages and climate variables are complex, necessitating a mechanistic approach. In this study, we present a framework for driving a mechanistic tick population model with high-resolution regional climate modeling projections. The goal is to estimate changes in black-legged tick populations in New England for the 21st century. The tick population model used is based on the mechanistic approach of Ogden et al., (2005) developed for Canada. Dynamically downscaled climate projections at a 3-kms resolution using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) are used to drive the tick population model.

Comparing life history characteristics of Lake Michigan’s naturalized and stocked Chinook Salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kerns, Janice A; Rogers, Mark W.; Bunnell, David B.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2016-01-01

Lake Michigan supports popular fisheries for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that have been sustained by stocking since the late 1960s. Natural recruitment of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan has increased in the past few decades and currently contributes more than 50% of Chinook Salmon recruits. We hypothesized that selective forces differ for naturalized populations born in the wild and hatchery populations, resulting in divergent life history characteristics with implications for Chinook Salmon population production and the Lake Michigan fishery. First, we conducted a historical analysis to determine if life history characteristics changed through time as the Chinook Salmon population became increasingly naturalized. Next, we conducted a 2-year field study of naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook Salmon spawning populations to quantify differences in fecundity, egg size, timing of spawning, and size at maturity. In general, our results did not indicate significant life history divergence between naturalized and hatchery-stocked Chinook Salmon populations in Lake Michigan. Although historical changes in adult sex ratio were correlated with the proportion of naturalized individuals, changes in weight at maturity were better explained by density-dependent factors. The field study revealed no divergence in fecundity, timing of spawning, or size at maturity, and only small differences in egg size (hatchery > naturalized). For the near future, our results suggest that the limited life history differences observed between Chinook Salmon of naturalized and hatchery origin will not lead to large differences in characteristics important to the dynamics of the population or fishery.

Particle-Size-Grouping Model of Precipitation Kinetics in Microalloyed Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kun; Thomas, Brian G.

2012-03-01

The formation, growth, and size distribution of precipitates greatly affects the microstructure and properties of microalloyed steels. Computational particle-size-grouping (PSG) kinetic models based on population balances are developed to simulate precipitate particle growth resulting from collision and diffusion mechanisms. First, the generalized PSG method for collision is explained clearly and verified. Then, a new PSG method is proposed to model diffusion-controlled precipitate nucleation, growth, and coarsening with complete mass conservation and no fitting parameters. Compared with the original population-balance models, this PSG method saves significant computation and preserves enough accuracy to model a realistic range of particle sizes. Finally, the new PSG method is combined with an equilibrium phase fraction model for plain carbon steels and is applied to simulate the precipitated fraction of aluminum nitride and the size distribution of niobium carbide during isothermal aging processes. Good matches are found with experimental measurements, suggesting that the new PSG method offers a promising framework for the future development of realistic models of precipitation.

The double stigma of obesity and serious mental illnesses: promoting health and recovery.

PubMed

Mizock, Lauren

2012-12-01

This article contrasts the traditional medical approach and size acceptance perspectives on obesity among people with serious mental illnesses. Higher incidences of obesity among populations with serious mental illnesses have been identified. In response, a recent initiative in mental health has urged providers to address the obesity rates among populations with mental illnesses by monitoring weight, prescribing weight loss medication, and recommending bariatric surgery. However, literature is emerging with regards to the double stigma experienced by individuals with obesity and a mental illness. Therefore, the traditional focus on weight loss can benefit from a size acceptance approach to focus on health promotion and avoid stigmatizing size. Citations of theoretical and behavioral health literature on the experiences of individuals with mental illnesses and obesity are presented. Recommendations for interventions, training, and future research related to obesity and mental illnesses are provided. Implications are suggested for a size acceptance approach to interventions for individuals in recovery from mental illnesses to promote health at every size within mental health and medical settings.

Wing geometry of Phlebotomus stantoni and Sergentomyia hodgsoni from different geographical locations in Thailand.

PubMed

Sumruayphol, Suchada; Chittsamart, Boonruam; Polseela, Raxsina; Sriwichai, Patchara; Samung, Yudthana; Apiwathnasorn, Chamnarn; Dujardin, Jean-Pierre

2017-01-01

Geographic populations of the two main sandflies genera present in Thailand were studied for species and population identification. Size and shape of Phlebotomus stantoni and Sergentomyia hodgsoni from different island and mainland locations were examined by landmark-based geometric morphometrics. Intraspecific and interspecific wing comparison was carried out based on 12 anatomical landmarks. The wing centroid size of P. stantoni was generally larger than that of S. hodgsoni. Within both species, wings from the continent were significantly larger than those from island populations. Size variation could be significant between geographic locations, but could also overlap between genera. The wing venation geometry showed non-overlapping differences between two species. The within-species variation of geometric shape between different geographical locations was highly significant, but it could not interfere with the interspecies difference. The lack of species overlapping in shape, and the high discrimination between geographic populations, make geometric shape a promising character for future taxonomic and epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2016 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Connectivity of Tiger (Panthera tigris) Populations in the Human-Influenced Forest Mosaic of Central India

PubMed Central

Joshi, Aditya; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Mondol, Samrat; Edgaonkar, Advait; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent. PMID:24223132

Connectivity of tiger (Panthera tigris) populations in the human-influenced forest mosaic of Central India.

PubMed

Joshi, Aditya; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Mondol, Samrat; Edgaonkar, Advait; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent.

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Local health department epidemiologic capacity: a stratified cross-sectional assessment describing the quantity, education, training, and perceived competencies of epidemiologic staff.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Kaitlin A; Shafir, Shira C; Shoaf, Kimberley I

2013-01-01

Local health departments (LHDs) must have sufficient numbers of staff functioning in an epidemiologic role with proper education, training, and skills to protect the health of communities they serve. This pilot study was designed to describe the composition, training, and competency level of LHD staff and examine the hypothesis that potential disparities exist between LHDs serving different sized populations. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with directors and epidemiologic staff from a sample of 100 LHDs serving jurisdictions of varied sizes. Questionnaires included inquiries regarding staff composition, education, training, and measures of competency modeled on previously conducted studies by the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Number of epidemiologic staff, academic degree distribution, epidemiologic training, and both director and staff confidence in task competencies were calculated for each LHD size strata. Disparities in measurements were observed in LHDs serving different sized populations. LHDs serving small populations reported a smaller average number of epidemiologic staff than those serving larger jurisdictions. As size of population served increased, percentages of staff and directors holding bachelors' and masters' degrees increased, while those holding RN degrees decreased. A higher degree of perceived competency of staff in most task categories was reported in LHDs serving larger populations. LHDs serving smaller populations reported fewer epidemiologic staff, therefore might benefit from additional resources. Differences observed in staff education, training, and competencies suggest that enhanced epidemiologic training might be particularly needed in LHDs serving smaller populations. RESULTS can be used as a baseline for future research aimed at identifying areas where training and personnel resources might be particularly needed to increase the capabilities of LHDs.

Effects of wind energy production on growth, demography, and survivorship of a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population in Southern California with comparisons to natural populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovich, J.E.; Ennen, J.R.; Madrak, S.; Meyer, K.; Loughran, C.; Bjurlin, C.; Arundel, T.; Turner, W.; Jones, C.; Groenendaal, G.M.

2011-01-01

We studied a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population at a large wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California over six field seasons from 1997 to 2010. We compared growth and demographic parameters to populations living in less disturbed areas; as well as populations of the closely-related and newly-described G. morafkai elsewhere in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We marked 69 individuals of all size classes and estimated a population size of 96 tortoises, or about 15.4/km2. Growth rates for males were lower than reported elsewhere, although maximum body size was larger. The smallest female with shelled eggs was 221 mm and males mature at over 200 mm. Mean male size was greater than that of females. The adult sex ratio was not significantly different from unity. Size frequency histograms were similar over time and when compared to most, but not all, G. morafkai populations in the Sonoran Desert. For a cohort of adult females, we estimated mortality at 8.4% annually due, in part, to site operations. This value was low in comparison to many other populations during the same time period. Other than possible differences in growth rate of males and the high survivorship of females, there appear to be few differences between this population and those in more natural areas. The high productivity of food plants at the site and its limited public access may contribute to the overall stability of the population. However, the effects of utility-scale renewable energy development on tortoises in other, less productive, areas are unknown. Additional research (especially controlled and replicated before and after studies) is urgently needed to address this deficiency because of forecasted expansion of utility-scale renewable energy development in the future.

Breeding design considerations for coastal Douglas-fir.

Treesearch

Randy Johnson

1998-01-01

The basic principles of designing forest tree breeding programs are reviewed for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in the Pacific Northwest. Breeding populations are discussed given current and future breeding zone sizes and seed orchard designs. Seed orchard composition is discussed for potential genetic gain and maintaining...

Employment in Appalachia: Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Theodore E.

The manufacturing industry's areal and structural growth trends were analyzed for insights into their possible future role in Appalachia's economy. Between 1950 and 1960, total manufacturing employment expanded in large-, medium-, and small-center population areas, in rates inverse to center size. However, absolute gains in employment were…

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

EPA Science Inventory

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

An Observation on Shelving Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Norman D.

1978-01-01

The Molesworth Institute conducted a year long experiment on the shelving practices of two academic libraries of comparable size, with similar user populations. Results show that the practice of leaving the middle two shelves empty for future expansion cannot be recommended. Measurements include accumulation of dirt; usage; and incidents of…

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-01-01

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2010-08-27

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century AD. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.

Population genetic structure of the African elephant in Uganda based on variation at mitochondrial and nuclear loci: evidence for male-biased gene flow.

PubMed

Nyakaana, S; Arctander, P

1999-07-01

A drastic decline has occurred in the size of the Uganda elephant population in the last 40 years, exacerbated by two main factors; an increase in the size of the human population and poaching for ivory. One of the attendant consequences of such a decline is a reduction in the amount of genetic diversity in the surviving populations due to increased effects of random genetic drift. Information about the amount of genetic variation within and between the remaining populations is vital for their future conservation and management. The genetic structure of the African elephant in Uganda was examined using nucleotide variation of mitochondrial control region sequences and four nuclear microsatellite loci in 72 individuals from three localities. Eleven mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes were observed, nine of which were geographically localized. We found significant genetic differentiation between the three populations at the mitochondrial locus while three out of the four microsatellite loci differentiated KV and QE, one locus differentiated KV and MF and no loci differentiated MF and QE. Expected heterozygosity at the four loci varied between 0.51 and 0.84 while nucleotide diversity at the mitochondrial locus was 1.4%. Incongruent patterns of genetic variation within and between populations were revealed by the two genetic systems, and we have explained these in terms of the differences in the effective population sizes of the two genomes and male-biased gene flow between populations.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Cross-generational environmental effects and the evolution of offspring size in the Trinidadian guppy Poecilia reticulata.

PubMed

Bashey, Farrah

2006-02-01

The existence of adaptive phenotypic plasticity demands that we study the evolution of reaction norms, rather than just the evolution of fixed traits. This approach requires the examination of functional relationships among traits not only in a single environment but across environments and between traits and plasticity itself. In this study, I examined the interplay of plasticity and local adaptation of offspring size in the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata. Guppies respond to food restriction by growing and reproducing less but also by producing larger offspring. This plastic difference in offspring size is of the same order of magnitude as evolved genetic differences among populations. Larger offspring sizes are thought to have evolved as an adaptation to the competitive environment faced by newborn guppies in some environments. If plastic responses to maternal food limitation can achieve the same fitness benefit, then why has guppy offspring size evolved at all? To explore this question, I examined the plastic response to food level of females from two natural populations that experience different selective environments. My goals were to examine whether the plastic responses to food level varied between populations, test the consequences of maternal manipulation of offspring size for offspring fitness, and assess whether costs of plasticity exist that could account for the evolution of mean offspring size across populations. In each population, full-sib sisters were exposed to either a low- or high-food treatment. Females from both populations produced larger, leaner offspring in response to food limitation. However, the population that was thought to have a history of selection for larger offspring was less plastic in its investment per offspring in response to maternal mass, maternal food level, and fecundity than the population under selection for small offspring size. To test the consequences of maternal manipulation of offspring size for offspring fitness, I raised the offspring of low- and high-food mothers in either low- or high-food environments. No maternal effects were detected at high food levels, supporting the prediction that mothers should increase fecundity rather than offspring size in noncompetitive environments. For offspring raised under low food levels, maternal effects on juvenile size and male size at maturity varied significantly between populations, reflecting their initial differences in maternal manipulation of offspring size; nevertheless, in both populations, increased investment per offspring increased offspring fitness. Several correlates of plasticity in investment per offspring that could affect the evolution of offspring size in guppies were identified. Under low-food conditions, mothers from more plastic families invested more in future reproduction and less in their own soma. Similarly, offspring from more plastic families were smaller as juveniles and female offspring reproduced earlier. These correlations suggest that a fixed, high level of investment per offspring might be favored over a plastic response in a chronically low-resource environment or in an environment that selects for lower reproductive effort.

General Economic and Demographic Background and Projections for Indiana Library Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foust, James D.; Tower, Carl B.

Before future library needs can be estimated, economic and demographic variables that influence the demand for library services must be projected and estimating equations relating library needs to economic and demographic parameters developed. This study considers the size, location and age-sex characteristics of Indiana's current population and…

The genetic architecture of coronary artery disease: current knowledge and future opportunities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent Findings Large-scale studies in human populations, coupled with rapid advances in genetic technologies over the last decade, have clearly established the association of common genetic variation with risk of CAD. However, the effect sizes of the susceptibility alleles are for the most part mod...

Nutritional determinants of worldwide diabetes: an econometric study of food markets and diabetes prevalence in 173 countries.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin; Galea, Gauden

2013-01-01

Ageing and urbanization leading to sedentary lifestyles have been the major explanations proposed for a dramatic rise in diabetes worldwide and have been the variables used to predict future diabetes rates. However, a transition to Western diets has been suggested as an alternative driver. We sought to determine what socio-economic and dietary factors are the most significant population-level contributors to diabetes prevalence rates internationally. Multivariate regression models were used to study how market sizes of major food products (sugars, cereals, vegetable oils, meats, total joules) corresponded to diabetes prevalence, incorporating lagged and cumulative effects. The underlying social determinants of food market sizes and diabetes prevalence rates were also studied, including ageing, income, urbanization, overweight prevalence and imports of foodstuffs. Data were obtained from 173 countries. Population-based survey recipients were the basis for diabetes prevalence and food market data. We found that increased income tends to increase overall food market size among low- and middle-income countries, but the level of food importation significantly shifts the content of markets such that a greater proportion of available joules is composed of sugar and related sweeteners. Sugar exposure statistically explained why urbanization and income have been correlated with diabetes rates. Current diabetes projection methods may estimate future diabetes rates poorly if they fail to incorporate the impact of nutritional factors. Imported sugars deserve further investigation as a potential population-level driver of global diabetes.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet.

PubMed

Hermes, Claudia; Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

PubMed Central

Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E.; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H. Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes. PMID:29364949

Literature Review of Research on Chronic Pain and Yoga in Military Populations

PubMed Central

Miller, Shari; Gaylord, Susan; Buben, Alex; Brintz, Carrie; Rae Olmsted, Kristine; Asefnia, Nakisa; Bartoszek, Michael

2017-01-01

Background: Although yoga is increasingly being provided to active duty soldiers and veterans, studies with military populations are limited and effects on chronic pain are largely unknown. We reviewed the existing body of literature and provide recommendations for future research. Methods: We conducted a literature review of electronic databases (PubMed, PsychINFO, Web of Science, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Science, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Social Science & Humanities). The studies were reviewed for characteristics such as mean age of participants, sample size, yoga type, and study design. Only peer-reviewed studies were included in the review. Results: The search yielded only six studies that examined pain as an outcome of yoga for military populations. With one exception, studies were with veteran populations. Only one study was conducted with Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) or Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) veterans. One study was a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Four of the five studies remaining used pre/post design, while the last study used a post-only design. Conclusions: Studies on the use of yoga to treat chronic pain in military populations are in their infancy. Methodological weaknesses include small sample sizes, a lack of studies with key groups (active duty, OEF/IEF veterans), and use of single group uncontrolled designs (pre/post; post only) for all but one study. Future research is needed to address these methodological limitations and build on this small body of literature. PMID:28930278

Genetic composition and connectivity of the Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Díaz-Ferguson, Edgardo; Hunter, Margaret; Guzmán, Héctor M.

2017-01-01

Genetic diversity and haplotype composition of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) population from the San San Pond Sak wetland in Bocas del Toro, Panama was studied using a segment of mitochondrial DNA (D’loop). No genetic information has been published to date for Panamanian populations. Due to the secretive behavior and small population size of the species in the area, DNA extraction was conducted from opportunistically collected fecal (N=20), carcass tissue (N=4) and bone (N=4) samples. However, after DNA processing only 10 samples provided good quality DNA for sequencing (3 fecal, 4 tissue and 3 bone samples). We found three haplotypes in total; two of these haplotypes are reported for the first time, J02 (N=3) and J03 (N=4), and one J01 was previously published (N=3). Genetic diversity showed similar values to previous studies conducted in other Caribbean regions with moderate values of nucleotide diversity (π= 0.00152) and haplotipic diversity (Hd= 0.57). Connectivity assessment was based on sequence similarity, genetic distance and genetic differentiation between San San population and other manatee populations previously studied. The J01 haplotype found in the Panamanian population is shared with populations in the Caribbean mainland and the Gulf of Mexico showing a reduced differentiation corroborated with Fst value between HSSPS and this region of 0.0094. In contrast, comparisons between our sequences and populations in the Eastern Caribbean (South American populations) and North Western Caribbean showed fewer similarities (Fst =0.049 and 0.058, respectively). These results corroborate previous phylogeographic patterns already established for manatee populations and situate Panamanian populations into the Belize and Mexico cluster. In addition, these findings will be a baseline for future studies and comparisons with manatees in other areas of Panama and Central America. These results should be considered to inform management decisions regarding conservation of genetic diversity, future controlled introductions, connectivity and effective population size of the West Indian manatee along the Central American corridor.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Influence of individual body size and variable thresholds on the incidence of a sneaker male reproductive tactic in Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Aubin-Horth, Nadia; Dodson, Julian J

2004-01-01

In the conditional strategy model, divergence in reproductive phenotypes depends on whether the individual's condition is above or below a genetically determined threshold. The relative contribution of the genetic and environmental components that lead to the expression of a reproductive tactic by an individual is not well understood. In the present field study, we determined when condition diverged between males that develop the mature parr phenotype and those that do not in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We also investigated the uniformity of the threshold value in the population. We sampled mature parr and immature males at age one, of the same population at six different sites for four consecutive years. Our study provides an example of the interaction of genotype and environment on the expression of a reproductive tactic. Size was significantly greater for future mature parr than for future immature males as early as 20 days after hatching (emergence), suggesting that there may be a parental effect component in the tactic adopted, since no exogenous feeding takes place before this time. Size advantage at emergence was maintained through the next spring at age one to different degrees depending on the year, thus suggesting the presence of an environmental component of tactic expression. Our results support the contention that within the conditional strategy, the environment faced by a male and his condition at the moment of reproduction consistently predicts neither the environment faced by his offspring nor the fitness they will obtain by expressing the same tactic as their father. Furthermore, higher mean size at a site did not always translate into a higher proportion of mature parr, therefore supporting the hypothesis that thresholds vary across habitats within the same population.

Response to selection while maximizing genetic variance in small populations.

PubMed

Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Meuwissen, Theo H E

2016-09-20

Rare breeds represent a valuable resource for future market demands. These populations are usually well-adapted, but their low census compromises the genetic diversity and future of these breeds. Since improvement of a breed for commercial traits may also confer higher probabilities of survival for the breed, it is important to achieve good responses to artificial selection. Therefore, efficient genetic management of these populations is essential to ensure that they respond adequately to genetic selection in possible future artificial selection scenarios. Scenarios that maximize the maximum genetic variance in a unique population could be a valuable option. The aim of this work was to study the effect of the maximization of genetic variance to increase selection response and improve the capacity of a population to adapt to a new environment/production system. We simulated a random scenario (A), a full-sib scenario (B), a scenario applying the maximum variance total (MVT) method (C), a MVT scenario with a restriction on increases in average inbreeding (D), a MVT scenario with a restriction on average individual increases in inbreeding (E), and a minimum coancestry scenario (F). Twenty replicates of each scenario were simulated for 100 generations, followed by 10 generations of selection. Effective population size was used to monitor the outcomes of these scenarios. Although the best response to selection was achieved in scenarios B and C, they were discarded because they are unpractical. Scenario A was also discarded because of its low response to selection. Scenario D yielded less response to selection and a smaller effective population size than scenario E, for which response to selection was higher during early generations because of the moderately structured population. In scenario F, response to selection was slightly higher than in Scenario E in the last generations. Application of MVT with a restriction on individual increases in inbreeding resulted in the largest response to selection during early generations, but if inbreeding depression is a concern, a minimum coancestry scenario is then a valuable alternative, in particular for a long-term response to selection.

Genetic diversity of European cattle breeds highlights the conservation value of traditional unselected breeds with high effective population size.

PubMed

Medugorac, Ivica; Medugorac, Ana; Russ, Ingolf; Veit-Kensch, Claudia E; Taberlet, Pierre; Luntz, Bernhard; Mix, Henry M; Förster, Martin

2009-08-01

In times of rapid global and unforeseeable environmental changes, there is an urgent need for a sustainable cattle breeding policy, based on a global view. Most of the indigenous breeds are specialized in a particular habitat or production system but are rapidly disappearing. Thus, they represent an important resource to meet present and future breeding objectives. Based on 105 microsatellites, we obtained thorough information on genetic diversity and population structure of 16 cattle breeds that cover a geographical area from the domestication centre near Anatolia, through the Balkan and alpine regions, to the North-West of Europe. Breeds under strict artificial selection and indigenous breeds under traditional breeding schemes were included. The overall results showed that the genetic diversity is widespread in Busa breeds in the Anatolian and Balkan areas, when compared with the alpine and north-western European breeds. Our results reflect long-term evolutionary and short-term breeding events very well. The regular pattern of allele frequency distribution in the entire cattle population studied clearly suggests conservation of rare alleles by conservation of preferably unselected traditional breeds with large effective population sizes. From a global and long-term conservation genetics point of view, the native and highly variable breeds closer to the domestication centre could serve as valuable sources of genes for future needs, not only for cattle but also for other farm animals.

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

2002-01-01

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Demographic stability metrics for conservation prioritization of isolated populations.

PubMed

Finn, Debra S; Bogan, Michael T; Lytle, David A

2009-10-01

Systems of geographically isolated habitat patches house species that occur naturally as small, disjunct populations. Many of these species are of conservation concern, particularly under the interacting influences of isolation and rapid global change. One potential conservation strategy is to prioritize the populations most likely to persist through change and act as sources for future recolonization of less stable localities. We propose an approach to classify long-term population stability (and, presumably, future persistence potential) with composite demographic metrics derived from standard population-genetic data. Stability metrics can be related to simple habitat measures for a straightforward method of classifying localities to inform conservation management. We tested these ideas in a system of isolated desert headwater streams with mitochondrial sequence data from 16 populations of a flightless aquatic insect. Populations exhibited a wide range of stability scores, which were significantly predicted by dry-season aquatic habitat size. This preliminary test suggests strong potential for our proposed method of classifying isolated populations according to persistence potential. The approach is complementary to existing methods for prioritizing local habitats according to diversity patterns and should be tested further in other systems and with additional loci to inform composite demographic stability scores.

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

PubMed Central

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W.; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L. D.

2014-01-01

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. PMID:24990671

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

PubMed

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L D

2014-08-22

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Supervised Machine Learning for Population Genetics: A New Paradigm

PubMed Central

Schrider, Daniel R.; Kern, Andrew D.

2018-01-01

As population genomic datasets grow in size, researchers are faced with the daunting task of making sense of a flood of information. To keep pace with this explosion of data, computational methodologies for population genetic inference are rapidly being developed to best utilize genomic sequence data. In this review we discuss a new paradigm that has emerged in computational population genomics: that of supervised machine learning (ML). We review the fundamentals of ML, discuss recent applications of supervised ML to population genetics that outperform competing methods, and describe promising future directions in this area. Ultimately, we argue that supervised ML is an important and underutilized tool that has considerable potential for the world of evolutionary genomics. PMID:29331490

Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

2015-12-01

Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

Detecting pulsars in the Galactic Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajwade, K. M.; Lorimer, D. R.; Anderson, L. D.

2017-10-01

Although high-sensitivity surveys have revealed a number of highly dispersed pulsars in the inner Galaxy, none have so far been found in the Galactic Centre (GC) region, which we define to be within a projected distance of 1 pc from Sgr A*. This null result is surprising given that several independent lines of evidence predict a sizable population of neutron stars in the region. Here, we present a detailed analysis of both the canonical and millisecond pulsar populations in the GC and consider free-free absorption and multipath scattering to be the two main sources of flux density mitigation. We demonstrate that the sensitivity limits of previous surveys are not sufficient to detect GC pulsar population, and investigate the optimum observing frequency for future surveys. Depending on the degree of scattering and free-free absorption in the GC, current surveys constrain the size of the potentially observable population (I.e. those beaming towards us) to be up to 52 canonical pulsars and 10 000 millisecond pulsars. We find that the optimum frequency for future surveys is in the range of 9-13 GHz. We also predict that future deeper surveys with the Square Kilometre array will probe a significant portion of the existing radio pulsar population in the GC.

The Role of Dog Population Management in Rabies Elimination—A Review of Current Approaches and Future Opportunities

PubMed Central

Taylor, Louise H.; Wallace, Ryan M.; Balaram, Deepashree; Lindenmayer, Joann M.; Eckery, Douglas C.; Mutonono-Watkiss, Beryl; Parravani, Ellie; Nel, Louis H.

2017-01-01

Free-roaming dogs and rabies transmission are integrally linked across many low-income countries, and large unmanaged dog populations can be daunting to rabies control program planners. Dog population management (DPM) is a multifaceted concept that aims to improve the health and well-being of free-roaming dogs, reduce problems they may cause, and may also aim to reduce dog population size. In theory, DPM can facilitate more effective rabies control. Community engagement focused on promoting responsible dog ownership and better veterinary care could improve the health of individual animals and dog vaccination coverage, thus reducing rabies transmission. Humane DPM tools, such as sterilization, could theoretically reduce dog population turnover and size, allowing rabies vaccination coverage to be maintained more easily. However, it is important to understand local dog populations and community attitudes toward them in order to determine whether and how DPM might contribute to rabies control and which DPM tools would be most successful. In practice, there is very limited evidence of DPM tools achieving reductions in the size or turnover of dog populations in canine rabies-endemic areas. Different DPM tools are frequently used together and combined with rabies vaccinations, but full impact assessments of DPM programs are not usually available, and therefore, evaluation of tools is difficult. Surgical sterilization is the most frequently documented tool and has successfully reduced dog population size and turnover in a few low-income settings. However, DPM programs are mostly conducted in urban settings and are usually not government funded, raising concerns about their applicability in rural settings and sustainability over time. Technical demands, costs, and the time necessary to achieve population-level impacts are major barriers. Given their potential value, we urgently need more evidence of the effectiveness of DPM tools in the context of canine rabies control. Cheaper, less labor-intensive tools for dog sterilization will be extremely valuable in realizing the potential benefits of reduced population turnover and size. No one DPM tool will fit all situations, but if DPM objectives are achieved dog populations may be stabilized or even reduced, facilitating higher dog vaccination coverages that will benefit rabies elimination efforts. PMID:28740850

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

2012-07-14

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Atypical reproductive cycles in a population of Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) from the Mexican Plateau

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Bautista, Aurelio; Stephenson, Barry P; Lozano, Abraham; Uribe-Rodríguez, Héctor; Leyte Manrique, Adrian

2012-01-01

The spiny lizard Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) is a small reptile from central México and the southern United States, occurring in a wide geographic area characterized by extensive variation in topographic and climatic regimes. Genetic variation among lineages from central México is substantial, though the extent to which this variation corresponds with life-history traits remains obscure. To address part of this puzzle, we studied a population of S. grammicus from Tepeapulco, Hidalgo, México. Male-biased sexual dimorphism was extensive in this population; males were larger than females overall, and expressed proportionately larger heads and longer limbs. Minimum size at sexual maturity was similar in the sexes (males: 43 mm; females: 42 mm). In contrast to other populations from the Central Plateau, reproductive activity of males and females was synchronous. Testicular recrudescence of adult males was initiated in October–November, and maximum testis size maintained from December to July. Female reproductive activity showed no clear seasonal pattern: females had vitellogenic follicles from October to July, and pregnant females were found throughout the year. Female body size was not related to litter size. Neither male nor female gonadal mass was correlated with any abiotic environmental variable examined. Differences in reproductive characteristics among populations of S. grammicus might be indicative of plasticity in response to local environmental conditions, local adaptation, or complex gene × environment interactions. We consider these results in the context of previously studied populations of S. grammicus from the Central Plateau and elsewhere, and propose directions for future research. PMID:22957191

Genetic diversity and genetic structure of an endemic Mexican Dusky Rattlesnake (Crotalus triseriatus) in a highly modified agricultural landscape: implications for conservation.

PubMed

Sunny, Armando; Monroy-Vilchis, Octavio; Zarco-González, Martha M; Mendoza-Martínez, Germán David; Martínez-Gómez, Daniel

2015-12-01

It is necessary to determine genetic diversity of fragmented populations in highly modified landscapes to understand how populations respond to land-use change. This information will help guide future conservation and management strategies. We conducted a population genetic study on an endemic Mexican Dusky Rattlesnake (Crotalus triseriatus) in a highly modified landscape near the Toluca metropolitan area, in order to provide crucial information for the conservation of this species. There was medium levels of genetic diversity, with a few alleles and genotypes. We identified three genetically differentiated clusters, likely as a result of different habitat cover type. We also found evidence of an ancestral genetic bottleneck and medium values of effective population size. Inbreeding coefficients were low and there was a moderate gene flow. Our results can be used as a basis for future research and C. triseriatus conservation efforts, particularly considering that the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is heavily impacted by destructive land-use practices.

Shifting foundations and metrics for golden-cheeked warbler recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Duarte, Adam

2012-01-01

Using the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) as a case study, this paper discusses what lessons can be learned from the process of the emergency listing and subsequent development of the recovery plan. Are the metrics for recovery in the current warbler plan appropriate, including population size and distribution (recovery units), migration corridors, and wintering habitat? In other words, what happened, what can we learn, and what should happen (in general) in the future for development of such plans? We discuss the number of recovery units required for species persistence and estimate the number of male warblers in protected areas across the breeding range of the species, using newly published density estimates. We also discuss future monitoring strategies to estimate warbler population trends and dispersal rates.

[Population and development].

PubMed

Castanon Romo, R; Sandoval Navarrete, J

1996-01-01

This broad survey of the debate concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development discusses the history and current status of world population growth, summarizes several influential theoretical positions on the topic, and proposes that redefinition of women's social role is indispensable if worldwide control of population growth is to be achieved. The introductory section discusses the acceleration of population growth in the second half of the 20th century and the increasing concentration of growth in the poor and developing countries. The positions of those who see in population control a means of promoting economic development and political stability are contrasted to the positions of those who believe that a large and growing population is the key to achieving economic and political progress. The international community, facing great uncertainty about the size, distribution, and well-being of the future world population, is increasingly concerned about the effect of growing numbers on the environment and natural resources. The second section summarizes the works of Malthus, Julian Simon, and the Club of Rome, and analyzes the propositions of demographic transition theory. The conclusion notes that despite uncertainty about the future of world population, development, and health, most of the poorest countries have become aware of the desirability of slowing population growth. A broad redefinition of the social role of women will inevitably accompany the worldwide demographic transition.

How Reliable Are the Reported Genetic Associations in Disc Degeneration?: The Influence of Phenotypes, Age, Population Size, and Inclusion Sequence in 809 Patients.

PubMed

Rajasekaran, S; Kanna, Rishi Mugesh; Reddy, Ranjani Raja; Natesan, Senthil; Raveendran, Muthuraja; Cheung, Kenneth M C; Chan, Danny; Kao, Patrick Y P; Yee, Anita; Shetty, Ajoy Prasad

2016-11-01

Prospective genetic association study. The aim of this study was to document the variations in the genetic associations, when different magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) phenotypes, age stratification, cohort size, and sequence of cohort inclusion are varied in the same study population. Genetic associations with disc degeneration have shown high inconsistency, generally attributed to hereditary factors and ethnic variations. However, the effect of different phenotypes, size of the study population, age of the cohort, etc have not been documented clearly. Seventy-one single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of 41 candidate genes were correlated to six MRI markers of disc degeneration (annular tears, Pfirmann grading, Schmorl nodes, Modic changes, Total Endplate Damage score, and disc bulge) in 809 patients with back pain and/or sciatica. In the same study group, the correlations were then retested for different age groups, different sample, size and sequence of subject inclusion (first 404 and the second 405) and the differences documented. The mean age of population (M: 455, F: 354) was 36.7 ± 10.8 years. Different genetic associations were found with different phenotypes: disc bulge with three SNPs of CILP; annular tears with rs2249350 of ADAMTS5 and rs11247361 IGF1R; modic changes with VDR and MMP20; Pfirmann grading with three SNPs of MMP20 and Schmorl node with SNPs of CALM1 and FN1 and none with Total End Plate Score.Subgroup analysis based on three age groups and dividing the total population into two groups also completely changed the associations for all the six radiographic parameters. In the same study population, SNP associations completely change with different phenotypes. Variations in age, inclusion sequence, and sample size resulted in change of genetic associations. Our study questions the validity of previous studies and necessitates the need for standardizing the description of disc degeneration, phenotype selection, study sample size, age, and other variables in future studies. 4.

Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae M.

2017-01-01

Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models. Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation of transgender individuals in population surveys is a barrier to understanding social determinants and health disparities faced by this population. We recommend using standardized questions to identify respondents with transgender and nonbinary gender identities, which will allow a more accurate population size estimate. PMID:28075632

The Consideration of Future Consequences and Health Behaviour: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Murphy, Lisa; Dockray, Samantha

2018-06-14

The aim of this meta-analysis was to quantify the direction and strength of associations between the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale and intended and actual engagement in three categories of health-related behaviour: health risk, health promotive, and illness preventative/detective behaviour. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies that measured CFC and health behaviour. In total, sixty-four effect sizes were extracted from 53 independent samples. Effect sizes were synthesised using a random-effects model. Aggregate effect sizes for all behaviour categories were significant, albeit small in magnitude. There were no significant moderating effects of the length of CFC scale (long vs. short), population type (college students vs. non-college students), mean age, or sex proportion of study samples. CFC reliability and study quality score significantly moderated the overall association between CFC and health risk behaviour only. The magnitude of effect sizes is comparable to associations between health behaviour and other individual difference variables, such as the Big Five personality traits. The findings indicate that CFC is an important construct to consider in research on engagement in health risk behaviour in particular. Future research is needed to examine the optimal approach by which to apply the findings to behavioural interventions.

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time.

PubMed

Bodemer, Nicolai; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Galesic, Mirta

2013-01-01

People show higher sensitivity to dread risks, rare events that kill many people at once, compared with continuous risks, relatively frequent events that kill many people over a longer period of time. The different reaction to dread risks is often considered a bias: If the continuous risk causes the same number of fatalities, it should not be perceived as less dreadful. We test the hypothesis that a dread risk may have a stronger negative impact on the cumulative population size over time in comparison with a continuous risk causing the same number of fatalities. This difference should be particularly strong when the risky event affects children and young adults who would have produced future offspring if they had survived longer. We conducted a series of simulations, with varying assumptions about population size, population growth, age group affected by risky event, and the underlying demographic model. Results show that dread risks affect the population more severely over time than continuous risks that cause the same number of fatalities, suggesting that fearing a dread risk more than a continuous risk is an ecologically rational strategy.

Genotyping by sequencing resolves shallow population structure to inform conservation of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

PubMed Central

Larson, Wesley A; Seeb, Lisa W; Everett, Meredith V; Waples, Ryan K; Templin, William D; Seeb, James E

2014-01-01

Recent advances in population genomics have made it possible to detect previously unidentified structure, obtain more accurate estimates of demographic parameters, and explore adaptive divergence, potentially revolutionizing the way genetic data are used to manage wild populations. Here, we identified 10 944 single-nucleotide polymorphisms using restriction-site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to explore population structure, demography, and adaptive divergence in five populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from western Alaska. Patterns of population structure were similar to those of past studies, but our ability to assign individuals back to their region of origin was greatly improved (>90% accuracy for all populations). We also calculated effective size with and without removing physically linked loci identified from a linkage map, a novel method for nonmodel organisms. Estimates of effective size were generally above 1000 and were biased downward when physically linked loci were not removed. Outlier tests based on genetic differentiation identified 733 loci and three genomic regions under putative selection. These markers and genomic regions are excellent candidates for future research and can be used to create high-resolution panels for genetic monitoring and population assignment. This work demonstrates the utility of genomic data to inform conservation in highly exploited species with shallow population structure. PMID:24665338

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

Exploring the effects of population change on the costs of physician services.

PubMed

Denton, Frank T; Gafni, Amiram; Spencer, Byron G

2002-09-01

The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such services. The principal data set (unpublished, for Ontario) provides information about payments to physicians, by age and sex of patients. Using it, we derive age/cost profiles for 19 categories of physicians. Adopting an index-theoretic framework, we then use the profiles to analyse the "pure" effects of population change (historical and projected) on physician costs, and to decompose the effects into population growth effects and population aging effects. We present calculations for Ontario, for the population of 15 industrialized countries, and for four theoretical populations.

Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

Polar bear research in the Beaufort Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, George M.; Wiig, Øystein; Born, Erik W.; Garner, Gerald W.; Wiig, Øystein; Born, Erik W.; Garner, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

Current research is designed to determine the status of the polar bear population in the Beaufort Sea and adjacent areas. One goal is to determine how polar bears are distributed relative to each other and habitat features, and to define population boundaries. Another goal is to determine the population size and trend, and assess how present and future management issues may affect thetrend. Specific objectives of the research include the need to:Determine the movements of individuals comprising the polar bear population that uses the Beaufort Sea. Determine hoe movements vary by season and by year, and whether they can be modeled so as to allow meaningful census and mitigation efforts.Improve estimates of size of the Beaufort Sea population relative to the capacity of the environment to sustain it.Determine factors regulating the rate of recruitment of new bears into the population.Determine the distribution of polar bear dens in northern Alaska and whether denning habitats may be a limiting factor on reproductive success.Determine the timing of den entrance and emergence.Determine the relative success rates (thus the reproductive significance) of dens in various locations.This report summaries the progress towards those objectives that has been made since the last meeting of the PBSG in 1988.

Sampling intraspecific variability in leaf functional traits: Practical suggestions to maximize collected information.

PubMed

Petruzzellis, Francesco; Palandrani, Chiara; Savi, Tadeja; Alberti, Roberto; Nardini, Andrea; Bacaro, Giovanni

2017-12-01

The choice of the best sampling strategy to capture mean values of functional traits for a species/population, while maintaining information about traits' variability and minimizing the sampling size and effort, is an open issue in functional trait ecology. Intraspecific variability (ITV) of functional traits strongly influences sampling size and effort. However, while adequate information is available about intraspecific variability between individuals (ITV BI ) and among populations (ITV POP ), relatively few studies have analyzed intraspecific variability within individuals (ITV WI ). Here, we provide an analysis of ITV WI of two foliar traits, namely specific leaf area (SLA) and osmotic potential (π), in a population of Quercus ilex L. We assessed the baseline ITV WI level of variation between the two traits and provided the minimum and optimal sampling size in order to take into account ITV WI , comparing sampling optimization outputs with those previously proposed in the literature. Different factors accounted for different amount of variance of the two traits. SLA variance was mostly spread within individuals (43.4% of the total variance), while π variance was mainly spread between individuals (43.2%). Strategies that did not account for all the canopy strata produced mean values not representative of the sampled population. The minimum size to adequately capture the studied functional traits corresponded to 5 leaves taken randomly from 5 individuals, while the most accurate and feasible sampling size was 4 leaves taken randomly from 10 individuals. We demonstrate that the spatial structure of the canopy could significantly affect traits variability. Moreover, different strategies for different traits could be implemented during sampling surveys. We partially confirm sampling sizes previously proposed in the recent literature and encourage future analysis involving different traits.

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

PubMed

Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

2017-01-01

Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

Past, present, and future of a freshwater fish metapopulation in a threatened landscape.

PubMed

Vera-Escalona, Iván; Senthivasan, Shreeram; Habit, Evelyn; Ruzzante, Daniel E

2018-02-12

It is well documented that hydropower plants can affect the dynamics of fish populations through landscape alterations and the creation of new barriers. Less emphasis has been placed on the examination of the genetic consequences for fish populations of the construction of dams. The relatively few studies that focus on genetics often do not consider colonization history and even fewer tend to use this information for conservation purposes. As a case study, we used a 3-pronged approach to study the influence of historical processes, contemporary landscape features, and potential future anthropogenic changes in landscape on the genetic diversity of a fish metapopulation. Our goal was to identify the metapopulation's main attributes, detect priority areas for conservation, and assess the consequences of the construction of hydropower plants for the persistence of the metapopulation. We used microsatellite markers and coalescent approaches to examine historical colonization processes, traditional population genetics, and simulations of future populations under alternate scenarios of population size reduction and gene flow. Historical gene flow appeared to have declined relatively recently and contemporary populations appeared highly susceptible to changes in landscape. Gene flow is critical for population persistence. We found that hydropower plants could lead to a rapid reduction in number of alleles and to population extirpation 50-80 years after their construction. More generally, our 3-pronged approach for the analyses of empirical genetic data can provide policy makers with information on the potential impacts of landscape changes and thus lead to more robust conservation efforts. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Evolution of Distance Education in Australia: Past, Present, Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reiach, Stephen; Averbeck, Clemens; Cassidy, Virginie

2012-01-01

Australia's large size and scattered population made it a prime location for the development of correspondence education in the 1920s, and the country is still in the forefront of distance education. This article is based on an extensive interview with Terry Evans, professor at Deakin University in Australia, who reflects on the history of…

The Statewide Plan for Higher Education, State of New Jersey Board of Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New Jersey State Board of Higher Education, Trenton.

The 1981 statewide plan for higher education in New Jersey is presented. The following challenges for the future are briefly addressed: education in a technological society, liberal education for social change, the size and composition of the college population, public priorities and fiscal resources, the role of government, the Board and…

Silvicultural approaches to maintain forest health and productivity under current and future climates

Treesearch

Paul D. Anderson; Daniel J. Chmura

2009-01-01

Climate modeling based on a variety of scenarios for the Pacific Northwest suggests that over the next century temperatures may increase and that the abundance of summer precipitation may decline. Historically, climate changes at the century scale have been accompanied by adjustments in species population sizes and the composition of vegetation communities....

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Geophysical Evolution of Ch Asteroids and Testable Hypotheses for Future Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, J. C.

2017-12-01

The main population of asteroids related to meteorites in the collections remains to be explored in situ. Ch asteroids are the only midsized asteroids that display a signature of hydration (besides Pallas) and the spectral connection between Ch asteroids and CM chondrites suggests that the former represent potential parent bodies for the latter. This class of asteroids is particularly interesting because it hosts many objects 100-200 km in size, which are believed to belong to a primordial population of planetesimals. This presentation will explore multiple evolution pathways for Ch-asteroids leading to possible hypotheses on the geological, petrological, and geophysical properties that a disrupted parent body would present to a future mission. This work is being carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

PubMed

Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

2016-08-01

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of habitat and time of day on flock size of Turkey Vultures in Cuba (Cathartes aura).

PubMed

Tryjanowski, Piotr; Morelli, Federico

2018-01-01

In agricultural landscapes, the Turkey Vulture Cathartes aura feeds mainly on carcases of domestic animals. In spring 2017, data on 214 flocks of Turkey vultures were collected in a road survey in Cuba (in total 2384 km). Turkey Vultures were found to be common accross Cuba, but flock size varied between habitats, reaching a maximum of 43 in valleys and 31 in agricultural landscapes with domestic animal farms. Vultures were active throughout the day, but the time of day did not significantly affect flock size. This study corroborates previous studies which suggested that carrion resources located in agricultural habitats and river valleys is crucial for the continued survival of this still abundant species. Changes in Cuba's socio-political system in the near future will likely impact agricultural practices, and this in turn will likely affect Turkey Vultures. Our study may serve as a baseline against which future population changes and flocking behaviour of Turkey Vultures can be compared.

Virus infection mediates the effects of elevated CO2 on plants and vectors.

PubMed

Trębicki, Piotr; Vandegeer, Rebecca K; Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A; Powell, Kevin S; Dader, Beatriz; Freeman, Angela J; Yen, Alan L; Fitzgerald, Glenn J; Luck, Jo E

2016-03-04

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased significantly and is projected to double by 2100. To increase current food production levels, understanding how pests and diseases respond to future climate driven by increasing CO2 is imperative. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 (eCO2) on the interactions among wheat (cv. Yitpi), Barley yellow dwarf virus and an important pest and virus vector, the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi), by examining aphid life history, feeding behavior and plant physiology and biochemistry. Our results showed for the first time that virus infection can mediate effects of eCO2 on plants and pathogen vectors. Changes in plant N concentration influenced aphid life history and behavior, and N concentration was affected by virus infection under eCO2. We observed a reduction in aphid population size and increased feeding damage on noninfected plants under eCO2 but no changes to population and feeding on virus-infected plants irrespective of CO2 treatment. We expect potentially lower future aphid populations on noninfected plants but no change or increased aphid populations on virus-infected plants therefore subsequent virus spread. Our findings underscore the complexity of interactions between plants, insects and viruses under future climate with implications for plant disease epidemiology and crop production.

Virus infection mediates the effects of elevated CO2 on plants and vectors

PubMed Central

Trębicki, Piotr; Vandegeer, Rebecca K.; Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A.; Powell, Kevin S.; Dader, Beatriz; Freeman, Angela J.; Yen, Alan L.; Fitzgerald, Glenn J.; Luck, Jo E.

2016-01-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased significantly and is projected to double by 2100. To increase current food production levels, understanding how pests and diseases respond to future climate driven by increasing CO2 is imperative. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 (eCO2) on the interactions among wheat (cv. Yitpi), Barley yellow dwarf virus and an important pest and virus vector, the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi), by examining aphid life history, feeding behavior and plant physiology and biochemistry. Our results showed for the first time that virus infection can mediate effects of eCO2 on plants and pathogen vectors. Changes in plant N concentration influenced aphid life history and behavior, and N concentration was affected by virus infection under eCO2. We observed a reduction in aphid population size and increased feeding damage on noninfected plants under eCO2 but no changes to population and feeding on virus-infected plants irrespective of CO2 treatment. We expect potentially lower future aphid populations on noninfected plants but no change or increased aphid populations on virus-infected plants therefore subsequent virus spread. Our findings underscore the complexity of interactions between plants, insects and viruses under future climate with implications for plant disease epidemiology and crop production. PMID:26941044

Virus infection mediates the effects of elevated CO2 on plants and vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trębicki, Piotr; Vandegeer, Rebecca K.; Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A.; Powell, Kevin S.; Dader, Beatriz; Freeman, Angela J.; Yen, Alan L.; Fitzgerald, Glenn J.; Luck, Jo E.

2016-03-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased significantly and is projected to double by 2100. To increase current food production levels, understanding how pests and diseases respond to future climate driven by increasing CO2 is imperative. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 (eCO2) on the interactions among wheat (cv. Yitpi), Barley yellow dwarf virus and an important pest and virus vector, the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi), by examining aphid life history, feeding behavior and plant physiology and biochemistry. Our results showed for the first time that virus infection can mediate effects of eCO2 on plants and pathogen vectors. Changes in plant N concentration influenced aphid life history and behavior, and N concentration was affected by virus infection under eCO2. We observed a reduction in aphid population size and increased feeding damage on noninfected plants under eCO2 but no changes to population and feeding on virus-infected plants irrespective of CO2 treatment. We expect potentially lower future aphid populations on noninfected plants but no change or increased aphid populations on virus-infected plants therefore subsequent virus spread. Our findings underscore the complexity of interactions between plants, insects and viruses under future climate with implications for plant disease epidemiology and crop production.

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Johnson, Heather E; Mills, L Scott; Wehausen, John D; Stephenson, Thomas R; Luikart, Gordon

2011-12-01

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Whole genome sequencing of a banana wild relative Musa itinerans provides insights into lineage-specific diversification of the Musa genus

PubMed Central

Wu, Wei; Yang, Yu-Lan; He, Wei-Ming; Rouard, Mathieu; Li, Wei-Ming; Xu, Meng; Roux, Nicolas; Ge, Xue-Jun

2016-01-01

Crop wild relatives are valuable resources for future genetic improvement. Here, we report the de novo genome assembly of Musa itinerans, a disease-resistant wild banana relative in subtropical China. The assembled genome size was 462.1 Mb, covering 75.2% of the genome (615.2Mb) and containing 32, 456 predicted protein-coding genes. Since the approximate divergence around 5.8 million years ago, the genomes of Musa itinerans and Musa acuminata have shown conserved collinearity. Gene family expansions and contractions enrichment analysis revealed that some pathways were associated with phenotypic or physiological innovations. These include a transition from wood to herbaceous in the ancestral Musaceae, intensification of cold and drought tolerances, and reduced diseases resistance genes for subtropical marginally distributed Musa species. Prevalent purifying selection and transposed duplications were found to facilitate the diversification of NBS-encoding gene families for two Musa species. The population genome history analysis of M. itinerans revealed that the fluctuated population sizes were caused by the Pleistocene climate oscillations, and that the formation of Qiongzhou Strait might facilitate the population downsizing on the isolated Hainan Island about 10.3 Kya. The qualified assembly of the M. itinerans genome provides deep insights into the lineage-specific diversification and also valuable resources for future banana breeding. PMID:27531320

Whole genome sequencing of a banana wild relative Musa itinerans provides insights into lineage-specific diversification of the Musa genus.

PubMed

Wu, Wei; Yang, Yu-Lan; He, Wei-Ming; Rouard, Mathieu; Li, Wei-Ming; Xu, Meng; Roux, Nicolas; Ge, Xue-Jun

2016-08-17

Crop wild relatives are valuable resources for future genetic improvement. Here, we report the de novo genome assembly of Musa itinerans, a disease-resistant wild banana relative in subtropical China. The assembled genome size was 462.1 Mb, covering 75.2% of the genome (615.2Mb) and containing 32, 456 predicted protein-coding genes. Since the approximate divergence around 5.8 million years ago, the genomes of Musa itinerans and Musa acuminata have shown conserved collinearity. Gene family expansions and contractions enrichment analysis revealed that some pathways were associated with phenotypic or physiological innovations. These include a transition from wood to herbaceous in the ancestral Musaceae, intensification of cold and drought tolerances, and reduced diseases resistance genes for subtropical marginally distributed Musa species. Prevalent purifying selection and transposed duplications were found to facilitate the diversification of NBS-encoding gene families for two Musa species. The population genome history analysis of M. itinerans revealed that the fluctuated population sizes were caused by the Pleistocene climate oscillations, and that the formation of Qiongzhou Strait might facilitate the population downsizing on the isolated Hainan Island about 10.3 Kya. The qualified assembly of the M. itinerans genome provides deep insights into the lineage-specific diversification and also valuable resources for future banana breeding.

Mitogenomics data reveal effective population size, historical bottlenecks, and the effects of hunting on New Zealand fur seals (Arctocephalus forsteri).

PubMed

Emami-Khoyi, Arsalan; Paterson, Adrian M; Hartley, David A; Boren, Laura J; Cruickshank, Robert H; Ross, James G; Murphy, Elaine C; Else, Terry-Ann

2018-05-01

The New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) passed through a population bottleneck due to commercial sealing during the eighteenth to nineteenth centuries. To facilitate future management options, we reconstructed the demographic history of New Zealand fur seals in a Bayesian framework using maternally inherited, mitochondrial DNA sequences. Mitogenomic data suggested two separate clades (most recent common ancestor 5000 years ago) of New Zealand fur seals that survived large-scale human harvest. Mitochondrial haplotype diversity was high, with 45 singletons identified from 46 individuals although mean nucleotide diversity was low (0.012 ± 0.0061). Variation was not constrained geographically. Analyses of mitogenomes support the hypothesis for a population bottleneck approximately 35 generations ago, which coincides with the peak of commercial sealing. Mitogenomic data are consistent with a pre-human effective population size of approximately 30,000 that first declined to around 10,000 (due to the impact of Polynesian colonization, particularly in the first 100 years of their arrival into New Zealand), and then to 100-200 breeding individuals during peak of commercial sealing.

Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Paiva, P D

1997-01-01

For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall.Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Conservation Status of the Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northern Beibu Gulf, China.

PubMed

Chen, Bingyao; Xu, Xinrong; Jefferson, Thomas A; Olson, Paula A; Qin, Qiurong; Zhang, Hongke; He, Liwen; Yang, Guang

2016-01-01

There has been very little previous research on Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in the Beibu Gulf of southern China. Here, we report on the population size, habitat and ecology, threats, and overall conservation status of this putative population. 'Population size' was estimated based on photo-identification mark/recapture analysis. It was estimated to number a total of 398-444 individuals (95% CI: 393-506), with two apparently distinct groups in the Dafengjiang-Nanliujiang Estuary and at Shatian-Caotan. Movements of dolphins in the Beibu Gulf appear to be limited, with high site fidelity. These dolphins were found to occur mainly in shallow coastal waters near estuaries. The main threats are fisheries interactions (including by-catch), vessel traffic, mariculture operations, dolphin-watching tourism, and habitat degradation (including marine construction activities and large-scale land reclamation). Although the conservation status of this putative population has been considered to be better than that of other populations of the species in more northern areas of China, there is still reason for strong concern about its future, and several management recommendations are made. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CANINE DISTEMPER VIRUS IN A WILD FAR EASTERN LEOPARD ( PANTHERA PARDUS ORIENTALIS).

PubMed

Sulikhan, Nadezhda S; Gilbert, Martin; Blidchenko, Ekaterina Yu; Naidenko, Sergei V; Ivanchuk, Galina V; Gorpenchenko, Tatiana Yu; Alshinetskiy, Mikhail V; Shevtsova, Elena I; Goodrich, John M; Lewis, John C M; Goncharuk, Mikhail S; Uphyrkina, Olga V; Rozhnov, Vyatcheslav V; Shedko, Sergey V; McAloose, Denise; Miquelle, Dale G

2018-01-01

The critically endangered population of Far Eastern leopards ( Panthera pardus orientalis) may number as few as 60 individuals and is at risk from stochastic processes such as infectious disease. During May 2015, a case of canine distemper virus (CDV) was diagnosed in a wild leopard exhibiting severe neurologic disease in the Russian territory of Primorskii Krai. Amplified sequences of the CDV hemagglutinin gene and phosphoprotein gene aligned within the Arctic-like clade of CDV, which includes viruses from elsewhere in Russia, China, Europe, and North America. Histologic examination of cerebral tissue revealed perivascular lymphoid cuffing and demyelination of the white matter consistent with CDV infection. Neutralizing antibodies against CDV were detected in archived serum from two wild Far Eastern leopards sampled during 1993-94, confirming previous exposure in the population. This leopard population is likely too small to maintain circulation of CDV, suggesting that infections arise from spillover from more-abundant domestic or wild carnivore reservoirs. Increasing the population size and establishment of additional populations of leopards would be important steps toward securing the future of this subspecies and reducing the risk posed by future outbreaks of CDV or other infectious diseases.

Modelling the global efficiency of dissolved air flotation.

PubMed

Leppinen, D M; Dalziel, S B; Linden, P F

2001-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine how the efficiency of dissolved air flotation is affected by the size of bubbles and particles. The rise speed of bubble/particle agglomerates is modelled as a function of bubble and particle size, while the kinematics of the bubble attachment process is modelled using the population balance approach adopted by Matsui, Fukushi and Tambo. It is found that flotation, in general, is enhanced by the use of larger particles and larger bubbles. In particular, it is concluded that for the ultra-high surface loading rates of 25 m/hr or more planned for future flotation tanks, bubble size will have to be increased by a factor of two over the size currently employed in many facilities during dissolved air flotation.

Mixed-source reintroductions lead to outbreeding depression in second-generation descendents of a native North American fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, D.D.; Miller, L.M.; Chizinski, C.J.; Vondracek, B.

2011-01-01

Reintroductions are commonly employed to preserve intraspecific biodiversity in fragmented landscapes. However, reintroduced populations are frequently smaller and more geographically isolated than native populations. Mixing genetically, divergent sources are often proposed to attenuate potentially low genetic diversity in reintroduced populations that may result from small effective population sizes. However, a possible negative tradeoff for mixing sources is outbreeding depression in hybrid offspring. We examined the consequences of mixed-source reintroductions on several fitness surrogates at nine slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) reintroduction sites in south-east Minnesota. We inferred the relative fitness of each crosstype in the reintroduced populations by comparing their growth rate, length, weight, body condition and persistence in reintroduced populations. Pure strain descendents from a single source population persisted in a greater proportion than expected in the reintroduced populations, whereas all other crosstypes occurred in a lesser proportion. Length, weight and growth rate were lower for second-generation intra-population hybrid descendents than for pure strain and first-generation hybrids. In the predominant pure strain, young-of the-year size was significantly greater than any other crosstype. Our results suggested that differences in fitness surrogates among crosstypes were consistent with disrupted co-adapted gene complexes associated with beneficial adaptations in these reintroduced populations. Future reintroductions may be improved by evaluating the potential for local adaptation in source populations or by avoiding the use of mixed sources by default when information on local adaptations or other genetic characteristics is lacking. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Re-examination of population structure and phylogeography of hawksbill turtles in the wider Caribbean using longer mtDNA sequences.

PubMed

Leroux, Robin A; Dutton, Peter H; Abreu-Grobois, F Alberto; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Delcroix, Eric; Chevalier, Johan; Horrocks, Julia A; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Troëng, Sebastian; Harrison, Emma; Stapleton, Seth

2012-01-01

Management of the critically endangered hawksbill turtle in the Wider Caribbean (WC) has been hampered by knowledge gaps regarding stock structure. We carried out a comprehensive stock structure re-assessment of 11 WC hawksbill rookeries using longer mtDNA sequences, larger sample sizes (N = 647), and additional rookeries compared to previous surveys. Additional variation detected by 740 bp sequences between populations allowed us to differentiate populations such as Barbados-Windward and Guadeloupe (F (st) = 0.683, P < 0.05) that appeared genetically indistinguishable based on shorter 380 bp sequences. POWSIM analysis showed that longer sequences improved power to detect population structure and that when N < 30, increasing the variation detected was as effective in increasing power as increasing sample size. Geographic patterns of genetic variation suggest a model of periodic long-distance colonization coupled with region-wide dispersal and subsequent secondary contact within the WC. Mismatch analysis results for individual clades suggest a general population expansion in the WC following a historic bottleneck about 100 000-300 000 years ago. We estimated an effective female population size (N (ef)) of 6000-9000 for the WC, similar to the current estimated numbers of breeding females, highlighting the importance of these regional rookeries to maintaining genetic diversity in hawksbills. Our results provide a basis for standardizing future work to 740 bp sequence reads and establish a more complete baseline for determining stock boundaries in this migratory marine species. Finally, our findings illustrate the value of maintaining an archive of specimens for re-analysis as new markers become available.

Population trends of Rhinolophus affinis during the breeding and non-breeding season roosting at the Kota Gelanggi limestone complex, Pahang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sia, Ting Jin; Zubaid, Akbar; Foo, Ng Yong

2015-09-01

Monitoring population trends of bats in caves is difficult but is very important for their conservation. Their vulnerability to decline cannot be taken lightly and must be monitored for future management purposes especially in places open to the public. No studies have been done on bats roosting in caves at Kota Gelanggi and there are very few published studies of cave-dwelling bats in Malaysia. To fill this gap, a study on monitoring the population trends of Rhinolophus affinis was carried out in two caves namely, Gua Kepala Gajah and Gua Tongkat. This study was conducted from October 2013 until December 2014. The population size was estimated by direct visual counts and photographic methods during the day. The bats were caught by using mists net and harp traps. The reproductive condition of both female and male individuals was examined. The mean estimated population size for R. affinis in Gua Kepala Gajah was 221 individuals and 464 in Gua Tongkat. The population size of R. affinis showed an obvious decline during the breeding season and increased gradually after that for both caves. Pregnant R. affinis were found in April 2014 and lactating in June 2014 in both caves. It is important to know the breeding and non-breeding season of bats in both caves and their roosting behaviour in order to protect the bats from human disturbance as these caves are open to the public. The findings will enable the TEKAM management to come out with a proper conservation and management plan for protecting the bat fauna in these caves.

Genetic structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes region and the effects of supplementation on genetic integrity of wild populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnquist, Keith N.; Larson, Wesley; Farrell, John M.; Hanchin, P.A.; Kapuscinski, Kevin L.; Miller, Loren M.; Scribner, Kim T.; Wilson, Chris C.; Sloss, Brian L.

2017-01-01

Muskellunge (Esox masquinongy) are important apex predators that support numerous recreational fisheries throughout the Great Lakes region. Declines in muskellunge abundance from historical overharvest and environmental degradation have threatened the viability of many populations and prompted significant restoration efforts that often include stocking. The goal of our study was to investigate contemporary population structure and genetic diversity in 42 populations of muskellunge sampled across the Great Lakes region to inform future management and supplementation practices. We genotyped 1896 muskellunge (N = 10–123/population) at 13 microsatellite loci. The greatest genetic variation was between populations of Great Lakes origin and populations of Northern (inland) origin, with both groups also exhibiting significant substructure (overall FST = 0.23). Genetic structure was generally correlated with geography; however, we only found marginal evidence of isolation by distance, likely due to high genetic differentiation among proximate populations. Measures of genetic diversity were moderate across most populations, but some populations displayed low diversity consistent with small population sizes or historical bottlenecks. Many of the populations studied displayed evidence of historic introductions and supplemental stocking, including the presence of individuals with primarily non-native ancestry as well as interlineage hybrids. Our results suggest that the historic population structure of muskellunge is largely intact across the Great Lakes region, but also that stocking practices have altered this structure to some degree. We suggest that future supplementation practices use local sources where possible, and incorporate genetic tools including broodstock screening to ensure that non-native muskellunge are not used to supplement wild populations.

Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

2011-01-01

To improve the Laysan Teal population estimates, we recommend changes to the monitoring protocol. Additional years of data are needed to quantify inter-annual seasonal detection probabilities, which may allow the use of standardized direct counts as an unbiased index of population size. Survey protocols should be enhanced through frequent resights, regular survey intervals, and determining reliable standards to detect catastrophic declines and annual changes in adult abundance. In late 2009 to early 2010, 68% of the population was marked with unique color band combinations. This allowed for potentially accurate adult population estimates and survival estimates without the need to mark new birds in 2010, 2011, and possibly 2012. However, efforts should be made to replace worn or illegible bands so birds can be identified in future surveys. It would be valuable to develop more sophisticated population size and survival models using Program MARK, a state-of-the-art software package which uses likelihood models to analyze mark-recapture data. This would allow for more reliable adult population and survival estimates to compare with the ―source‖ Laysan Teal population on Laysan Island. These models will require additional years of resight data (> 1 year) and, in some cases, an intensive annual effort of marking and recapture. Because data indicate standardized all-wetland counts are a poor index of abundance, monitoring efforts could be improved by expanding resight surveys to include all wetlands, discontinuing the all-wetland counts, and reallocating some of the wetland count effort to collect additional opportunistic resights. Approximately two years of additional bimonthly surveys are needed to validate the direct count as an appropriate index of population abundance. Additional years of individual resight data will allow estimates of adult population size, as specified in recovery criteria, and to track species population dynamics at Midway Atoll.

Atlantic Bluefin Tuna: A Novel Multistock Spatial Model for Assessing Population Biomass

PubMed Central

Taylor, Nathan G.; McAllister, Murdoch K.; Lawson, Gareth L.; Carruthers, Tom; Block, Barbara A.

2011-01-01

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is considered to be overfished, but the status of its populations has been debated, partly because of uncertainties regarding the effects of mixing on fishing grounds. A better understanding of spatial structure and mixing may help fisheries managers to successfully rebuild populations to sustainable levels while maximizing catches. We formulate a new seasonally and spatially explicit fisheries model that is fitted to conventional and electronic tag data, historic catch-at-age reconstructions, and otolith microchemistry stock-composition data to improve the capacity to assess past, current, and future population sizes of Atlantic bluefin tuna. We apply the model to estimate spatial and temporal mixing of the eastern (Mediterranean) and western (Gulf of Mexico) populations, and to reconstruct abundances from 1950 to 2008. We show that western and eastern populations have been reduced to 17% and 33%, respectively, of 1950 spawning stock biomass levels. Overfishing to below the biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield occurred in the 1960s and the late 1990s for western and eastern populations, respectively. The model predicts that mixing depends on season, ontogeny, and location, and is highest in the western Atlantic. Assuming that future catches are zero, western and eastern populations are predicted to recover to levels at maximum sustainable yield by 2025 and 2015, respectively. However, the western population will not recover with catches of 1750 and 12,900 tonnes (the “rebuilding quotas”) in the western and eastern Atlantic, respectively, with or without closures in the Gulf of Mexico. If future catches are double the rebuilding quotas, then rebuilding of both populations will be compromised. If fishing were to continue in the eastern Atlantic at the unregulated levels of 2007, both stocks would continue to decline. Since populations mix on North Atlantic foraging grounds, successful rebuilding policies will benefit from trans-Atlantic cooperation. PMID:22174745

Eco-geographic adaptations in the human ribcage throughout a 3D geometric morphometric approach.

PubMed

García-Martínez, Daniel; Nalla, Shahed; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Guichón, Ricardo A; D'Angelo Del Campo, Manuel D; Bastir, Markus

2018-06-01

According to eco-geographic rules, humans from high latitude areas present larger and wider trunks than their low-latitude areas counterparts. This issue has been traditionally addressed on the pelvis but information on the thorax is largely lacking. We test whether ribcages are larger in individuals inhabiting high latitudes than in those from low latitudes and explored the correlation of rib size with latitude. We also test whether a common morphological pattern is exhibited in the thorax of different cold-adapted populations, contributing to their hypothetical widening of the trunk. We used 3D geometric morphometrics to quantify rib morphology of three hypothetically cold-adapted populations, viz. Greenland (11 individuals), Alaskan Inuit (8 individuals) and people from Tierra del Fuego (8 individuals), in a comparative framework with European (Spain, Portugal and Austria; 24 individuals) and African populations (South African and sub-Saharan African; 20 individuals). Populations inhabiting high latitudes present longer ribs than individuals inhabiting areas closer to the equator, but a correlation (p < 0.05) between costal size and latitude is only found in ribs 7-11. Regarding shape, the only cold adapted population that was different from the non-cold-adapted populations were the Greenland Inuit, who presented ribs with less curvature and torsion. Size results from the lower ribcage are consistent with the hypothesis of larger trunks in cold-adapted populations. The fact that only Greenland Inuit present a differential morphological pattern, linked to a widening of their ribcage, could be caused by differences in latitude. However, other factors such as genetic drift or specific cultural adaptations cannot be excluded and should be tested in future studies. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparative tests of ectoparasite species richness in seabirds

PubMed Central

Hughes, Joseph; Page, Roderic DM

2007-01-01

Background The diversity of parasites attacking a host varies substantially among different host species. Understanding the factors that explain these patterns of parasite diversity is critical to identifying the ecological principles underlying biodiversity. Seabirds (Charadriiformes, Pelecaniformes and Procellariiformes) and their ectoparasitic lice (Insecta: Phthiraptera) are ideal model groups in which to study correlates of parasite species richness. We evaluated the relative importance of morphological (body size, body weight, wingspan, bill length), life-history (longevity, clutch size), ecological (population size, geographical range) and behavioural (diving versus non-diving) variables as predictors of louse diversity on 413 seabird hosts species. Diversity was measured at the level of louse suborder, genus, and species, and uneven sampling of hosts was controlled for using literature citations as a proxy for sampling effort. Results The only variable consistently correlated with louse diversity was host population size and to a lesser extent geographic range. Other variables such as clutch size, longevity, morphological and behavioural variables including body mass showed inconsistent patterns dependent on the method of analysis. Conclusion The comparative analysis presented herein is (to our knowledge) the first to test correlates of parasite species richness in seabirds. We believe that the comparative data and phylogeny provide a valuable framework for testing future evolutionary hypotheses relating to the diversity and distribution of parasites on seabirds. PMID:18005412

Population Genomics of Daphnia pulex

PubMed Central

Lynch, Michael; Gutenkunst, Ryan; Ackerman, Matthew; Spitze, Ken; Ye, Zhiqiang; Maruki, Takahiro; Jia, Zhiyuan

2017-01-01

Using data from 83 isolates from a single population, the population genomics of the microcrustacean Daphnia pulex are described and compared to current knowledge for the only other well-studied invertebrate, Drosophila melanogaster. These two species are quite similar with respect to effective population sizes and mutation rates, although some features of recombination appear to be different, with linkage disequilibrium being elevated at short (<100 bp) distances in D. melanogaster and at long distances in D. pulex. The study population adheres closely to the expectations under Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, and reflects a past population history of no more than a twofold range of variation in effective population size. Fourfold redundant silent sites and a restricted region of intronic sites appear to evolve in a nearly neutral fashion, providing a powerful tool for population genetic analyses. Amino acid replacement sites are predominantly under strong purifying selection, as are a large fraction of sites in UTRs and intergenic regions, but the majority of SNPs at such sites that rise to frequencies >0.05 appear to evolve in a nearly neutral fashion. All forms of genomic sites (including replacement sites within codons, and intergenic and UTR regions) appear to be experiencing an ∼2× higher level of selection scaled to the power of drift in D. melanogaster, but this may in part be a consequence of recent demographic changes. These results establish D. pulex as an excellent system for future work on the evolutionary genomics of natural populations. PMID:27932545

Genetics of Central Valley O. mykiss populations: drainage and watershed scale analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Pavey, Scott A.; Wiacek, Talia; Williams, Ian S.

2005-01-01

Genetic variation at 11 microsatellite loci described population genetic structure for Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Central Valley, California. Spatial and temporal variation was examined as well as relationships between hatchery and putative natural spawning anadromous stocks. Genetic diversity was analyzed at two distinct spatial scales: fine-scale within drainage for five populations on Clear Creek; between and among drainage diversity for 23 populations. Significant regional spatial structure was apparent, both within Clear Creek and among rainbow trout populations throughout the Central Valley. Significant differences in allelic frequencies were found among most river or drainage systems. Less than 1% of the molecular variance could be attributed to differences found between drainages. Hatchery populations were shown to carry similar genetic diversity to geographically proximate wild populations. Central Valley M = 0.626 (below the M < 0.68 threshold) supported recent population reductions within the Central Valley. However, average estimated effective population size was relatively high (Ne = 5066). Significant allelic differences were found in rainbow trout collected above and below impassable dams on the American, Yuba, Stanislaus and Tuolumne rivers. Rainbow trout sampled in Spring Creek were extremely bottlenecked with allelic variation at only two loci and an estimated effective population size of 62, suggesting some local freshwater O. mykiss stocks may be declining rapidly. These data support significant genetic population structure for steelhead and rainbow trout populations within the Central Valley across multiple scales. Careful consideration of this genetic diversity and its distribution across the landscape should be part of future conservation and restoration efforts. 

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

2010-01-01

Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

Barriers to overcome for effective cancer control in Africa.

PubMed

Harford, Joe B

2015-08-01

Cancer control in Africa is complicated due to large differences in cancer incidence between countries caused by differences in exposure to known risk factors. For example, substantial differences are seen when selected cancers in north Africa are compared with those in sub-Saharan Africa. In the future, population growth and demographic shifts are likely to have profound effects on the prevalence of cancer across the continent. Likewise, many factors outside of health care such as language differences, conflict, and poverty can affect cancer control efforts. Although cooperation in cancer control efforts is desirable, differences in cultural and geopolitical factors that characterise African countries and their populations, together with the sheer size of the continent, present unique challenges to effective cancer control. This Series paper discusses factors related to the size, diversity, and conditions within Africa that present barriers to optimal collaboration in cancer control efforts across the continent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local sensitivity of per-recruit fishing mortality reference points.

PubMed

Cadigan, N G; Wang, S

2016-12-01

We study the sensitivity of fishery management per-recruit harvest rates which may be part of a quantitative harvest strategy designed to achieve some objective for catch or population size. We use a local influence sensitivity analysis to derive equations that describe how these reference harvest rates are affected by perturbations to productivity processes. These equations give a basic theoretical understanding of sensitivity that can be used to predict what the likely impacts of future changes in productivity will be. Our results indicate that per-recruit reference harvest rates are more sensitive to perturbations when the equilibrium catch or population size per recruit, as functions of the harvest rate, have less curvature near the reference point. Overall our results suggest that per recruit reference points will, with some exceptions, usually increase if (1) growth rates increase, (2) natural mortality rates increase, or (3) fishery selectivity increases to an older age.

AFLP markers reveal high clonal diversity and extreme longevity in four key arctic-alpine species.

PubMed

de Witte, Lucienne C; Armbruster, Georg F J; Gielly, Ludovic; Taberlet, Pierre; Stöcklin, Jürg

2012-03-01

We investigated clonal diversity, genet size structure and genet longevity in populations of four arctic-alpine plants (Carex curvula, Dryas octopetala, Salix herbacea and Vaccinium uliginosum) to evaluate their persistence under past climatic oscillations and their potential resistance to future climate change. The size and number of genets were determined by an analysis of amplified fragment length polymorphisms and a standardized sampling design in several European arctic-alpine populations, where these species are dominant in the vegetation. Genet age was estimated by dividing the size by the annual horizontal size increment from in situ growth measurements. Clonal diversity was generally high but differed among species, and the frequency distribution of genet size was strongly left-skewed. The largest C. curvula genet had an estimated minimum age of c. 4100 years and a maximum age of c. 5000 years, although 84.8% of the genets in this species were <200 years old. The oldest genets of D. octopetala, S. herbacea and V. uliginosum were found to be at least 500, 450 and 1400 years old, respectively. These results indicate that individuals in the studied populations have survived pronounced climatic oscillations, including the Little Ice Age and the postindustrial warming. The presence of genets in all size classes and the dominance of presumably young individuals suggest repeated recruitment over time, a precondition for adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Together, persistence and continuous genet turnover may ensure maximum ecosystem resilience. Thus, our results indicate that long-lived clonal plants in arctic-alpine ecosystems can persist, despite considerable climatic change. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Health and Aging Policy Fellows Program: Shaping a Healthy Future for Older Americans.

PubMed

Pincus, Harold Alan; Pike, Kathleen M; Spaeth-Rublee, Brigitta; Elinson, Lynn

2017-09-01

As the size of the elderly population increases, so do the challenges of and barriers to high-quality, affordable health care. The Health and Aging Policy Fellows (HAPF) Program is designed to provide health and aging professionals with the skills and experience to help lead the effort in reducing these barriers and shaping a healthy and productive future for older Americans. Since its inception in 2008, the program has affected not only the fellows who participate, but also the field of health and aging policy. Work needs to be done to sustain this program so that more fellows can participate and sound policies for the elderly population can continue to be shaped and improved. This report describes the HAPF Program, including its background (rationale, description, partners, progress, effect), lessons learned, challenges and solutions, and policy implications. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

Life history of the vulnerable endemic crayfish Cambarus (Erebicambarus) maculatus Hobbs and Pflieger, 1988 (Decapoda: Astacoidea: Cambaridae) in Missouri, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

DiStefano, Robert J.; Westhoff, Jacob T.; Ames, Catlin W.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

2016-01-01

The vulnerable freckled crayfish, Cambarus maculatus Hobbs and Pflieger, 1988, is endemic to only one drainage in eastern Missouri, USA, which is impacted by heavy metals mining and adjacent to a rapidly-expanding urban area. We studied populations of C. maculatus in two small streams for 25 months to describe annual reproductive cycles, and gather information about fecundity, sex ratio, size at maturity, size-class structure, and growth, capturing a monthly average of more than 50 individuals from each of the two study populations. Information about the density of the species at supplemental sampling streams was also obtained. The species exhibited traits consistent with a K-strategist life history; long-lived, slow-growing, with fewer but larger eggs than sympatric crayfish species. Breeding season occurred in mid- to late autumn, potentially extending into early winter. Egg brooding occurred primarily in May. Young of year were first observed in June. We estimated that these populations contained four to six size-classes, observed smaller individuals grew faster than larger individuals, and most became sexually mature in their second year of life. Densities of C. maculatus were low relative to several sympatric species of Orconectes Cope, 1872. Life history information presented herein will be important for anticipated future conservation efforts.

Adopting epidemic model to optimize medication and surgical intervention of excess weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruoyan

2017-01-01

We combined an epidemic model with an objective function to minimize the weighted sum of people with excess weight and the cost of a medication and surgical intervention in the population. The epidemic model is consisted of ordinary differential equations to describe three subpopulation groups based on weight. We introduced an intervention using medication and surgery to deal with excess weight. An objective function is constructed taking into consideration the cost of the intervention as well as the weight distribution of the population. Using empirical data, we show that fixed participation rate reduces the size of obese population but increases the size for overweight. An optimal participation rate exists and decreases with respect to time. Both theoretical analysis and empirical example confirm the existence of an optimal participation rate, u*. Under u*, the weighted sum of overweight (S) and obese (O) population as well as the cost of the program is minimized. This article highlights the existence of an optimal participation rate that minimizes the number of people with excess weight and the cost of the intervention. The time-varying optimal participation rate could contribute to designing future public health interventions of excess weight.

Evolution of body size in Galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin

2005-10-07

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms and allows predictions of an individual's morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history. However, explaining the evolution of complex traits such as body size is difficult because a plethora of other traits influence body size. Here I review what we know about the evolution of body size in a group of island reptiles and try to generalize about the mechanisms that shape body size. Galapagos marine iguanas occupy all 13 larger islands in this Pacific archipelago and have maximum island body weights between 900 and 12 000g. The distribution of body sizes does not match mitochondrial clades, indicating that body size evolves independently of genetic relatedness. Marine iguanas lack intra- and inter-specific food competition and predators are not size-specific, discounting these factors as selective agents influencing body size. Instead I hypothesize that body size reflects the trade-offs between sexual and natural selection. We found that sexual selection continuously favours larger body sizes. Large males establish display territories and some gain over-proportional reproductive success in the iguanas' mating aggregations. Females select males based on size and activity and are thus responsible for the observed mating skew. However, large individuals are strongly selected against during El Niño-related famines when dietary algae disappear from the intertidal foraging areas. We showed that differences in algae sward ('pasture') heights and thermal constraints on large size are causally responsible for differences in maximum body size among populations. I hypothesize that body size in many animal species reflects a trade-off between foraging constraints and sexual selection and suggest that future research could focus on physiological and genetic mechanisms determining body size in wild animals. Furthermore, evolutionary stable body size distributions within populations should be analysed to better understand selection pressures on individual body size.

Evolution of body size in Galapagos marine iguanas

PubMed Central

Wikelski, Martin

2005-01-01

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms and allows predictions of an individual's morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history. However, explaining the evolution of complex traits such as body size is difficult because a plethora of other traits influence body size. Here I review what we know about the evolution of body size in a group of island reptiles and try to generalize about the mechanisms that shape body size. Galapagos marine iguanas occupy all 13 larger islands in this Pacific archipelago and have maximum island body weights between 900 and 12 000 g. The distribution of body sizes does not match mitochondrial clades, indicating that body size evolves independently of genetic relatedness. Marine iguanas lack intra- and inter-specific food competition and predators are not size-specific, discounting these factors as selective agents influencing body size. Instead I hypothesize that body size reflects the trade-offs between sexual and natural selection. We found that sexual selection continuously favours larger body sizes. Large males establish display territories and some gain over-proportional reproductive success in the iguanas' mating aggregations. Females select males based on size and activity and are thus responsible for the observed mating skew. However, large individuals are strongly selected against during El Niño-related famines when dietary algae disappear from the intertidal foraging areas. We showed that differences in algae sward (‘pasture’) heights and thermal constraints on large size are causally responsible for differences in maximum body size among populations. I hypothesize that body size in many animal species reflects a trade-off between foraging constraints and sexual selection and suggest that future research could focus on physiological and genetic mechanisms determining body size in wild animals. Furthermore, evolutionary stable body size distributions within populations should be analysed to better understand selection pressures on individual body size. PMID:16191607

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants.

PubMed

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-11-19

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

PubMed Central

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-01-01

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

PubMed

Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

2018-02-01

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Birds in space and time: genetic changes accompanying anthropogenic habitat fragmentation in the endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla)

PubMed Central

Athrey, Giridhar; Barr, Kelly R; Lance, Richard F; Leberg, Paul L

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic alterations in the natural environment can be a potent evolutionary force. For species that have specific habitat requirements, habitat loss can result in substantial genetic effects, potentially impeding future adaptability and evolution. The endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla) suffered a substantial contraction of breeding habitat and population size during much of the 20th century. In a previous study, we reported significant differentiation between remnant populations, but failed to recover a strong genetic signal of bottlenecks. In this study, we used a combination of historical and contemporary sampling from Oklahoma and Texas to (i) determine whether population structure and genetic diversity have changed over time and (ii) evaluate alternate demographic hypotheses using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We found lower genetic diversity and increased differentiation in contemporary samples compared to historical samples, indicating nontrivial impacts of fragmentation. ABC analysis suggests a bottleneck having occurred in the early part of the 20th century, resulting in a magnitude decline in effective population size. Genetic monitoring with temporally spaced samples, such as used in this study, can be highly informative for assessing the genetic impacts of anthropogenic fragmentation on threatened or endangered species, as well as revealing the dynamics of small populations over time. PMID:23028396

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Whited, Diane C.; DeHaan, Patrick W.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Luikart, Gordon

2015-01-01

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = −0.77;P < 0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Flitcroft, Rebecca L; Dunham, Jason B.; McNyset, Kristina M.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2015-01-01

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Spin Glass Patch Planting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Wenlong; Mandra, Salvatore; Katzgraber, Helmut G.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a patch planting method for creating arbitrarily large spin glass instances with known ground states. The scaling of the computational complexity of these instances with various block numbers and sizes is investigated and compared with random instances using population annealing Monte Carlo and the quantum annealing DW2X machine. The method can be useful for benchmarking tests for future generation quantum annealing machines, classical and quantum mechanical optimization algorithms.

Predicting debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, Donald J.

1988-01-01

The probable amount, sizes, and relative velocities of debris are discussed, giving examples of the damage caused by debris, and focusing on the use of mathematical models to forecast the debris environment and solar activity now and in the future. Most debris are within 2,000 km of the earth's surface. The average velocity of spacecraft-debris collisions varies from 9 km/sec at 30 degrees of inclination to 13 km/sec near polar orbits. Mathematical models predict a 5 percent per year increase in the large-fragment population, producing a small-fragment population increase of 10 percent per year until the year 2060, the time of critical density. A 10 percent increase in the large population would cause the critical density to be reached around 2025.

Micrometeoroid and Lunar Secondary Ejecta Flux Measurements: Comparison of Three Acoustic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corsaro, R. D.; Giovane, F.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Burtchell, M.; Pisacane, V.; Lagakos, N.; Williams, E.; Stansbery, E.

2010-01-01

This report examines the inherent capability of three large-area acoustic sensor systems and their applicability for micrometeoroids (MM) and lunar secondary ejecta (SE) detection and characterization for future lunar exploration activities. Discussion is limited to instruments that can be fabricated and deployed with low resource requirements. Previously deployed impact detection probes typically have instrumented capture areas less than 0.2 square meters. Since the particle flux decreases rapidly with increased particle size, such small-area sensors rarely encounter particles in the size range above 50 microns, and even their sampling the population above 10 microns is typically limited. Characterizing the sparse dust population in the size range above 50 microns requires a very large-area capture instrument. However it is also important that such an instrument simultaneously measures the population of the smaller particles, so as to provide a complete instantaneous snapshot of the population. For lunar or planetary surface studies, the system constraints are significant. The instrument must be as large as possible to sample the population of the largest MM. This is needed to reliably assess the particle impact risks and to develop cost-effective shielding designs for habitats, astronauts, and critical instrument. The instrument should also have very high sensitivity to measure the flux of small and slow SE particles. is the SE environment is currently poorly characterized, and possess a contamination risk to machinery and personnel involved in exploration. Deployment also requires that the instrument add very little additional mass to the spacecraft. Three acoustic systems are being explored for this application.

The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe.

PubMed

Rhodes, A; Ferdinande, P; Flaatten, H; Guidet, B; Metnitz, P G; Moreno, R P

2012-10-01

To quantify the numbers of critical care beds in Europe and to understand the differences in these numbers between countries when corrected for population size and gross domestic product. Prospective data collection of critical care bed numbers for each country in Europe from July 2010 to July 2011. Sources were identified in each country that could provide data on numbers of critical care beds (intensive care and intermediate care). These data were then cross-referenced with data from international databases describing population size and age, gross domestic product (GDP), expenditure on healthcare and numbers of acute care beds. We identified 2,068,892 acute care beds and 73,585 (2.8 %) critical care beds. Due to the heterogeneous descriptions of these beds in the individual countries it was not possible to discriminate between intensive care and intermediate care in most cases. On average there were 11.5 critical care beds per 100,000 head of population, with marked differences between countries (Germany 29.2, Portugal 4.2). The numbers of critical care beds per country corrected for population size were positively correlated with GDP (r(2) = 0.16, p = 0.05), numbers of acute care beds corrected for population (r(2) = 0.12, p = 0.05) and the percentage of acute care beds designated as critical care (r(2) = 0.59, p < 0.0001). They were not correlated with the proportion of GDP expended on healthcare. Critical care bed numbers vary considerably between countries in Europe. Better understanding of these numbers should facilitate improved planning for critical care capacity and utilization in the future.

Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data

PubMed Central

Stack, J. Conrad; Bansal, Shweta; Kumar, V. S. Anil; Grenfell, Bryan

2013-01-01

Models of infectious disease spread that incorporate contact heterogeneity through contact networks are an important tool for epidemiologists studying disease dynamics and assessing intervention strategies. One of the challenges of contact network epidemiology has been the difficulty of collecting individual and population-level data needed to develop an accurate representation of the underlying host population's contact structure. In this study, we evaluate the utility of common epidemiological measures (R0, epidemic peak size, duration and final size) for inferring the degree of heterogeneity in a population's unobserved contact structure through a Bayesian approach. We test the method using ground truth data and find that some of these epidemiological metrics are effective at classifying contact heterogeneity. The classification is also consistent across pathogen transmission probabilities, and so can be applied even when this characteristic is unknown. In particular, the reproductive number, R0, turns out to be a poor classifier of the degree heterogeneity, while, unexpectedly, final epidemic size is a powerful predictor of network structure across the range of heterogeneity. We also evaluate our framework on empirical epidemiological data from past and recent outbreaks to demonstrate its application in practice and to gather insights about the relevance of particular contact structures for both specific systems and general classes of infectious disease. We thus introduce a simple approach that can shed light on the unobserved connectivity of a host population given epidemic data. Our study has the potential to inform future data-collection efforts and study design by driving our understanding of germane epidemic measures, and highlights a general inferential approach to learning about host contact structure in contemporary or historic populations of humans and animals. PMID:23034353

Estimation of genetic diversity in Gute sheep: pedigree and microsatellite analyses of an ancient Swedish breed.

PubMed

Rochus, Christina M; Johansson, Anna M

2017-01-01

Breeds with small population size are in danger of an increased inbreeding rate and loss of genetic diversity, which puts them at risk for extinction. In Sweden there are a number of local breeds, native breeds which have adapted to specific areas in Sweden, for which efforts are being made to keep them pure and healthy over time. One example of such a breed is the Swedish Gute sheep. The objective of this study was to estimate inbreeding and genetic diversity of Swedish Gute sheep. Three datasets were analysed: pedigree information of the whole population, pedigree information for 100 animals of the population, and microsatellite genotypes for 94 of the 100 animals. The average inbreeding coefficient for lambs born during a six year time period (2007-2012) did not increase during that time period. The inbreeding calculated from the entire pedigree (0.038) and for a sample of the population (0.018) was very low. Sheep were more heterozygous at the microsatellite markers than expected (average multilocus heterozygosity and Ritland inbreeding estimates 1.01845 and -0.03931) and five of seven microsatellite markers were not in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium due to heterozygosity excess. The total effective population size estimated from the pedigree information was 155.4 and the average harmonic mean effective population size estimated from microsatellites was 88.3. Pedigree and microsatellite genotype estimations of inbreeding were consistent with a breeding program with the purpose of reducing inbreeding. Our results showed that current breeding programs of the Swedish Gute sheep are consistent with efforts of keeping this breed viable and these breeding programs are an example for other small local breeds in conserving breeds for the future.

Genetic structure and conservation of Mountain Lions in the South-Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest.

PubMed

Castilho, Camila S; Marins-Sá, Luiz G; Benedet, Rodrigo C; Freitas, Thales R O

2012-01-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest, one of the most endangered ecosystems worldwide, is also among the most important hotspots as regards biodiversity. Through intensive logging, the initial area has been reduced to around 12% of its original size. In this study we investigated the genetic variability and structure of the mountain lion, Puma concolor. Using 18 microsatellite loci we analyzed evidence of allele dropout, null alleles and stuttering, calculated the number of allele/locus, PIC, observed and expected heterozygosity, linkage disequilibrium, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, F(IS), effective population size and genetic structure (MICROCHECKER, CERVUS, GENEPOP, FSTAT, ARLEQUIN, ONESAMP, LDNe, PCAGEN, GENECLASS software), we also determine whether there was evidence of a bottleneck (HYBRIDLAB, BOTTLENECK software) that might influence the future viability of the population in south Brazil. 106 alleles were identified, with the number of alleles/locus ranging from 2 to 11. Mean observed heterozygosity, mean number of alleles and polymorphism information content were 0.609, 5.89, and 0.6255, respectively. This population presented evidence of a recent bottleneck and loss of genetic variation. Persistent regional poaching constitutes an increasing in the extinction risk.

The Observational and Theoretical Tidal Radii of Globular Clusters in M87

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Jeremy J.; Sills, Alison; Harris, William E.

2012-02-01

Globular clusters have linear sizes (tidal radii) which theory tells us are determined by their masses and by the gravitational potential of their host galaxy. To explore the relationship between observed and expected radii, we utilize the globular cluster population of the Virgo giant M87. Unusually deep, high signal-to-noise images of M87 are used to measure the effective and limiting radii of approximately 2000 globular clusters. To compare with these observations, we simulate a globular cluster population that has the same characteristics as the observed M87 cluster population. Placing these simulated clusters in the well-studied tidal field of M87, the orbit of each cluster is solved and the theoretical tidal radius of each cluster is determined. We compare the predicted relationship between cluster size and projected galactocentric distance to observations. We find that for an isotropic distribution of cluster velocities, theoretical tidal radii are approximately equal to observed limiting radii for R gc < 10 kpc. However, the isotropic simulation predicts a steep increase in cluster size at larger radii, which is not observed in large galaxies beyond the Milky Way. To minimize the discrepancy between theory and observations, we explore the effects of orbital anisotropy on cluster sizes, and suggest a possible orbital anisotropy profile for M87 which yields a better match between theory and observations. Finally, we suggest future studies which will establish a stronger link between theoretical tidal radii and observed radii.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Demographic history, current expansion and future management challenges of wild boar populations in the Balkans and Europe

PubMed Central

Veličković, N; Ferreira, E; Djan, M; Ernst, M; Obreht Vidaković, D; Monaco, A; Fonseca, C

2016-01-01

Wild boar (Sus scrofa), one of the most widespread wildlife species, has entered a stage of continuous growth in Europe, and could even be considered a pest species. We analysed microsatellite variability in 723 wild boars from across Europe, including the northern Dinaric Balkans. Our aims were: (1) to define the population structure of wild boars in the Balkans and its relation with other European populations; (2) to estimate effective populations sizes, levels of intra- and inter-population diversity, inbreeding migration and gene flow patterns; (3) to test subpopulations for bottlenecks; (4) to interpret these results in light of current knowledge about the demographic history of wild boars in Europe; and (5) to discuss the relevance of these findings for management and conservation. Strong population structuring was observed and 14 subpopulations were revealed. High genetic diversity was found, and besides the well-known identity of the Italian populations of Sardinia and Castelporziano, we bring new insights into other potential relevant, refugial populations such as Littoral Slovenia, South Portugal, North-western Iberia and an entire cluster in the Balkans. There was evidence of gene flow going from these refugial subpopulations towards less peripheral and more admixed subpopulations. Recent population bottlenecks and expansions were detected, mostly in the peninsular refuge subpopulations. The results are consistent with the fluctuations of wild boar numbers in Europe since the beginning of the twentieth century. These results should be taken into account in future conservation and management plans for wild boar populations in Europe. PMID:27436523

The effects of Medieval dams on genetic divergence and demographic history in brown trout populations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Habitat fragmentation has accelerated within the last century, but may have been ongoing over longer time scales. We analyzed the timing and genetic consequences of fragmentation in two isolated lake-dwelling brown trout populations. They are from the same river system (the Gudenå River, Denmark) and have been isolated from downstream anadromous trout by dams established ca. 600–800 years ago. For reference, we included ten other anadromous populations and two hatchery strains. Based on analysis of 44 microsatellite loci we investigated if the lake populations have been naturally genetically differentiated from anadromous trout for thousands of years, or have diverged recently due to the establishment of dams. Results Divergence time estimates were based on 1) Approximate Bayesian Computation and 2) a coalescent-based isolation-with-gene-flow model. Both methods suggested divergence times ca. 600–800 years bp, providing strong evidence for establishment of dams in the Medieval as the factor causing divergence. Bayesian cluster analysis showed influence of stocked trout in several reference populations, but not in the focal lake and anadromous populations. Estimates of effective population size using a linkage disequilibrium method ranged from 244 to > 1,000 in all but one anadromous population, but were lower (153 and 252) in the lake populations. Conclusions We show that genetic divergence of lake-dwelling trout in two Danish lakes reflects establishment of water mills and impassable dams ca. 600–800 years ago rather than a natural genetic population structure. Although effective population sizes of the two lake populations are not critically low they may ultimately limit response to selection and thereby future adaptation. Our results demonstrate that populations may have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance over longer time scales than normally assumed. PMID:24903056

The effects of Medieval dams on genetic divergence and demographic history in brown trout populations.

PubMed

Hansen, Michael M; Limborg, Morten T; Ferchaud, Anne-Laure; Pujolar, José-Martin

2014-06-05

Habitat fragmentation has accelerated within the last century, but may have been ongoing over longer time scales. We analyzed the timing and genetic consequences of fragmentation in two isolated lake-dwelling brown trout populations. They are from the same river system (the Gudenå River, Denmark) and have been isolated from downstream anadromous trout by dams established ca. 600-800 years ago. For reference, we included ten other anadromous populations and two hatchery strains. Based on analysis of 44 microsatellite loci we investigated if the lake populations have been naturally genetically differentiated from anadromous trout for thousands of years, or have diverged recently due to the establishment of dams. Divergence time estimates were based on 1) Approximate Bayesian Computation and 2) a coalescent-based isolation-with-gene-flow model. Both methods suggested divergence times ca. 600-800 years bp, providing strong evidence for establishment of dams in the Medieval as the factor causing divergence. Bayesian cluster analysis showed influence of stocked trout in several reference populations, but not in the focal lake and anadromous populations. Estimates of effective population size using a linkage disequilibrium method ranged from 244 to > 1,000 in all but one anadromous population, but were lower (153 and 252) in the lake populations. We show that genetic divergence of lake-dwelling trout in two Danish lakes reflects establishment of water mills and impassable dams ca. 600-800 years ago rather than a natural genetic population structure. Although effective population sizes of the two lake populations are not critically low they may ultimately limit response to selection and thereby future adaptation. Our results demonstrate that populations may have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance over longer time scales than normally assumed.

Isolated populations of a rare alpine plant show high genetic diversity and considerable population differentiation.

PubMed

Aegisdóttir, Hafdís Hanna; Kuss, Patrick; Stöcklin, Jürg

2009-12-01

Gene flow and genetic variability within and among alpine plant populations can be greatly influenced by the steep environmental gradients and heterogeneous topography of alpine landscapes. In this study, the effects are examined of natural isolation of alpine habitats on genetic diversity and geographic structure in populations of C. thyrsoides, a rare and isolated European Alpine monocarpic perennial with limited seed dispersal capacity. Molecular diversity was analysed for 736 individuals from 32 populations in the Swiss Alps and adjacent Jura mountains using five polymorphic microsatellite loci. Pollen flow was estimated using pollen grain-sized fluorescent powder. In addition, individual-based Bayesian approaches were applied to examine population structure. High within-population genetic diversity (H(E) = 0.76) and a relatively low inbreeding coefficient (F(IS) = 0.022) were found. Genetic differentiation among populations measured with a standardized measure was considerable (G'(ST) = 0.53). A significant isolation-by-distance relationship was found (r = 0.62, P < 0.001) and a significant geographic sub-structure, coinciding with proposed postglacial migration patterns. Altitudinal location and size of populations did not influence molecular variation. Direct measures of pollen flow revealed that insect-mediated pollen dispersal was restricted to short distances within a population. The natural isolation of suitable habitats for C. thyrsoides restricts gene flow among the populations as expected for a monocarpic species with very limited seed dispersal capacities. The observed high within-population genetic diversity in this rare monocarpic perennial is best explained by its outcrossing behaviour, long-lived individuals and overlapping generations. Despite the high within-population genetic diversity, the considerable genetic differentiation and the clear western-eastern differentiation in this species merits consideration in future conservation efforts.

Cognitive and Occupational Function in Survivors of Adolescent Cancer.

PubMed

Nugent, Bethany D; Bender, Catherine M; Sereika, Susan M; Tersak, Jean M; Rosenzweig, Margaret

2018-02-01

Adolescents with cancer have unique developmental considerations. These include brain development, particularly in the frontal lobe, and a focus on completing education and entering the workforce. Cancer and treatment at this stage may prove to uniquely affect survivors' experience of cognitive and occupational function. An exploratory, cross-sectional, descriptive comparative study was employed to describe cognitive and occupational function in adult survivors of adolescent cancer (diagnosed between the ages of 15 and 21 years) and explore differences in age- and gender-matched controls. In total, 23 survivors and 14 controls participated in the study. While significant differences were not found between the groups on measures of cognitive and occupational function, several small and medium effect sizes were found suggesting that survivors may have greater difficulty than controls. Two small effect sizes were found in measures of neuropsychological performance (the Digit Vigilance test [d = 0.396] and Stroop test [d = 0.226]). Small and medium effect sizes ranging from 0.269 to 0.605 were found for aspects of perceived and total cognitive function. A small effect size was also found in work output (d = 0.367). While we did not find significant differences in cognitive or occupational function between survivors and controls, the effect sizes observed point to the need for future research. Future work using a larger sample size and longitudinal design are needed to further explore cognitive and occupational function in this vulnerable and understudied population and assist in the understanding of patterns of change over time.

Home ranges and habitat use of sloth bears Melursus ursinus inornatus in Wasgomuwa National Park, Sri Lanka

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ratnayeke, S.; Van Manen, F.T.; Padmalal, U.K.G.K.

2007-01-01

We studied home ranges and habitat selection of 10 adult sloth bears Melursus ursinus inornatus at Wasgomuwa National Park, Sri Lanka during 2002-2003. Very little is known about the ecology and behaviour of M. u. inornatus, which is a subspecies found in Sri Lanka. Our study was undertaken to assess space and habitat requirements typical of a viable population of M. u. inornatus to facilitate future conservation efforts. We captured and radio-collared 10 adult sloth bears and used the telemetry data to assess home-range size and habitat use. Mean 95% fixed kernel home ranges were 2.2 km2 (SE = 0.61) and 3.8 km2 (SE = 1.01) for adult females and males, respectively. Although areas outside the national park were accessible to bears, home ranges were almost exclusively situated within the national park boundaries. Within the home ranges, high forests were used more and abandoned agricultural fields (chenas) were used less than expected based on availability. Our estimates of home-range size are among the smallest reported for any species of bear. Thus, despite its relatively small size, Wasgomuwa National Park may support a sizeable population of sloth bears. The restriction of human activity within protected areas may be necessary for long-term viability of sloth bear populations in Sri Lanka as is maintenance of forest or scrub cover in areas with existing sloth bear populations and along potential travel corridors. ?? Wildlife Biology 2007.

Population ecology of variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul; Hallerman, Eric M.

2013-01-01

Variegate darters (Etheostoma variatum) were listed as endangered in Virginia in 1992. Reasons for listing included habitat degradation and concerns about current and future impacts of coal mining throughout their Virginia range. Prior to this research, little was known about variegate darter distribution, habitat use, or populations in Virginia. Two primary goals of this research were to gain knowledge about the current population ecology and the relationship between landscape-level factors (e.g., land cover changes, watershed size, isolation from other populations) on current and past variegate darter population sizes.We investigated distribution, habitat suitability, population genetics, and population size and structure of variegate darters in the upper Big Sandy River drainage, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Wise Co., Virginia. Our results indicate variegate darters are primarily found in the Levisa Fork, with highest densities and abundances between its confluence with Dismal Creek and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Sporadic occurrences in smaller tributaries to the Levisa and Tug forks indicate they exist more widely in low densities, especially near the confluence with the Tug and Levisa mainstems. Detection of variegate darters in smaller tributaries was inconsistent, with reach-level occupancy estimates varying among years. We detected young-of-year variegate darters every year we sampled, but age 1+ darters were indistinguishable from older darters based on standard length.Variegate darter population size and stability in Virginia were estimated via multiple methods, including site occupancy surveys, mark-recapture studies, and population genetic analysis. Using mark-recapture methods at five sites, we estimated overall population size in 2011 to be approximately 12,800 individuals in the 35-km reach between the Levisa Fork - Dismal Creek confluence and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Age structure seemed stable, with breeding adults and young-of-year collected annually during 2008-2011. Population genetic analysis indicated variegate darters in the Levisa Fork and its tributaries are part of a single genetic population. Historical and current genetic stability were seen in our analysis of the variegate darter population, with no genetic differentiation among riffles across the upper Levisa Fork watershed, indicating dispersal among these sites is enough to overcome random genetic drift. This population is genetically isolated from downstream populations by the dam at Fishtrap Lake, Pike Co., Kentucky, and is beginning to show genetic isolation from other nearby populations. As expected, the Virginia population is most closely related to those in the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork downstream of the dam.Regular monitoring of variegate darters in the Levisa Fork mainstem from the Dismal Creek confluence to the Virginia-Kentucky border would facilitate better understanding of normal fluctuations of population size and distribution, as well as assessments of population status. This reach encompasses the core of the variegate darter population in Virginia, and its persistence will determine long-term viability of this species. Given that little is known about long-term population trends, we suggest that annual site-occupancy and population size estimates be made at ten randomly selected riffles for at least ten years to understand normal levels of variability. Thereafter, these population parameters could be monitored bi-annually as a way to detect shrinking distribution or abundance, especially after any fish kill or other pollution event in the Levisa Fork. We further suggest that the sites upstream and downstream of the saline diffusor pipe be monitored to detect changes in the extent of the impact zone.Overall, the variegate darter population in Virginia appears stable, although primarily confined to the lower 35 km of the Levisa Fork. Nevertheless, variegate darters in Virginia remain susceptible to extirpation due to catastrophic events, both physical (chemical spill) and biological (disease outbreak or invasive species introduction).

Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Beech, A J

2001-11-01

Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

Projected distributions and diversity of flightless ground beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and their environmental correlates.

PubMed

Staunton, Kyran M; Robson, Simon K A; Burwell, Chris J; Reside, April E; Williams, Stephen E

2014-01-01

With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae) within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group's primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area. These findings have dramatic implications for all other flightless insect taxa and the future biodiversity of this region.

Projected Distributions and Diversity of Flightless Ground Beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and Their Environmental Correlates

PubMed Central

Staunton, Kyran M.; Robson, Simon K. A.; Burwell, Chris J.; Reside, April E.; Williams, Stephen E.

2014-01-01

With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae) within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group’s primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area. These findings have dramatic implications for all other flightless insect taxa and the future biodiversity of this region. PMID:24586362

Population structure of giraffes is affected by management in the Great Rift Valley, Kenya

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Giraffe populations in East Africa have declined in the past thirty years yet there has been limited research on this species. This study had four objectives: i) to provide a baseline population assessment for the two largest populations of Rothschild’s giraffes in Kenya, ii) to assess whether there are differences in population structure between the two enclosed populations, iii) to assess the potential and possible implications of different management practices on enclosed giraffe populations to inform future decision-making, and iv) to add to the availability of information available about giraffes in the wild. I used individual identification to assess the size and structure of the two populations; in Soysambu Conservancy between May 2010 and January 2011, I identified 77 giraffes; in Lake Nakuru National Park between May 2011 and January 2012, I identified 89. Population structure differed significantly between the two sites; Soysambu Conservancy contained a high percentage of juveniles (34%) and subadults (29%) compared to Lake Nakuru NP, which contained fewer juveniles (5%) and subadults (15%). During the time of this study Soysambu Conservancy contained no lions while Lake Nakuru NP contained a high density of lions (30 lions per 100km2). Lions are the main predator of giraffes, and preferential predation on juvenile giraffes has previously been identified in Lake Nakuru NP. My results suggest that high lion density in Lake Nakuru NP may have influenced the structure of the giraffe population by removing juveniles and, consequently, may affect future population growth. I suggest that wildlife managers consider lion densities alongside breeding plans for Endangered species, since the presence of lions appears to influence the population structure of giraffes in enclosed habitats. PMID:29298338

Population structure of giraffes is affected by management in the Great Rift Valley, Kenya.

PubMed

Muller, Zoe

2018-01-01

Giraffe populations in East Africa have declined in the past thirty years yet there has been limited research on this species. This study had four objectives: i) to provide a baseline population assessment for the two largest populations of Rothschild's giraffes in Kenya, ii) to assess whether there are differences in population structure between the two enclosed populations, iii) to assess the potential and possible implications of different management practices on enclosed giraffe populations to inform future decision-making, and iv) to add to the availability of information available about giraffes in the wild. I used individual identification to assess the size and structure of the two populations; in Soysambu Conservancy between May 2010 and January 2011, I identified 77 giraffes; in Lake Nakuru National Park between May 2011 and January 2012, I identified 89. Population structure differed significantly between the two sites; Soysambu Conservancy contained a high percentage of juveniles (34%) and subadults (29%) compared to Lake Nakuru NP, which contained fewer juveniles (5%) and subadults (15%). During the time of this study Soysambu Conservancy contained no lions while Lake Nakuru NP contained a high density of lions (30 lions per 100km2). Lions are the main predator of giraffes, and preferential predation on juvenile giraffes has previously been identified in Lake Nakuru NP. My results suggest that high lion density in Lake Nakuru NP may have influenced the structure of the giraffe population by removing juveniles and, consequently, may affect future population growth. I suggest that wildlife managers consider lion densities alongside breeding plans for Endangered species, since the presence of lions appears to influence the population structure of giraffes in enclosed habitats.

Fishery management priorities vary with self‐recruitment in sedentary marine populations.

PubMed

Yau, Annie J; Lenihan, Hunter S; Kendall, Bruce E

Fisheries science often uses population models that assume no external recruitment, but nearshore marine populations harvested on small scales of <200 km often exhibit an unknown mix of self-recruitment and recruitment from external sources. Since empirical determination of self-recruitment vs. external recruitment is difficult, we used a modeling approach to examine the sensitivity of fishery management priorities to recruitment assumptions (self [closed], external [open]) in a local population of harvested giant clams (Tridacna maxima) on Mo'orea, French Polynesia. From 2006 to 2010, we measured growth, fecundity, recruitment, and survival (resulting from natural and fishing mortality). We used these data to parameterize both a closed (complete self-recruitment) and an open (no self-recruitment) integral projection model (IPM), and then calculated elasticities of demographic rates (growth, survival, recruitment) to future population abundance in 20 years. The models' lowest projected abundance was 93.4% (95% CI, [86.5%, 101.8%]) of present abundance, if the local population is entirely open and the present level of fishing mortality persists. The population will exhibit self-sustaining dynamics (1 ≤ λ ≤ 1.07) as for a closed population if the ratio of self-recruits per gram of dry gonad is >0.775 (equivalent to 52.85% self-recruitment under present conditions). Elasticity analysis of demographic parameters indicated that future abundance can most effectively be influenced by increasing survival of mid-sized clams (∼80–120 mm) if the population is self-sustaining, and by increasing survival of juvenile clams (∼40–70 mm) if the population is non-self-sustaining (as for an open population). Our results illustrate that management priorities can vary depending on the amount of self-recruitment in a local population.

U.S. population policy.

PubMed

Piotrow, P T

1993-06-01

Some of the history and special features of the US population assistance program administered by USAID are recounted. Future predictions are also made for funding and new directions for the US population assistance program and environmental issues. The topics addressed were part of a talk given in 1992 at a meeting of the Council on Population Education held in Tokyo. Credit is given to Japan for its contribution to family planning (FP) efforts by setting an example of reducing population size within a decade and providing financial support internationally. Japan's example so impressed General William H. Draper, Jr. that he worked for the establishment of the USAID and the UN Population Fund, and funding for the International Planned Parenthood Federation. He encouraged Japanese officials to provide support for international population and (FP) programs. Currently, the US provides $350 million in population assistance. Encouragement was given for Japan to increase its international commitment of $80 million and to contribute to the Johns Hopkins University William H. Draper, Jr., fellowship fund for graduate students from developing countries to study modern health communication. The special features of the US population assistance program were identified as follows: 1) high funding levels, 2) availability of FP services, 3) adequate contraceptive supplies, 4) availability of professional population staff, and 5) an emphasis on data and evaluation. The single most important element of the USAID program is the reliance on private, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), which can establish flexible, independent, innovative and cost- effective programs. Predictions for the future were that the US Congress would expand overseas population assistance. Domestic policy will have priority, and the future will depend on who occupies the key policy positions at the State Department and USAID. THere will be more emphasis on free political elections, on humanitarian issues, and on environmental issues. New directions will be to increase funding, reduce restrictions on population assistance, increase support for NGOs, expand FP communication programs, improve the quality of FP services, increase distribution of condoms, and increase coordination among donors. The enter educate approach to promoting FP is described.

The Variation of Planetary Surfaces' Structure and Size Distribution with Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambous, C. A.; Pike, W. T.

2014-12-01

The particle, rock and boulder size distribution of a planetary surface bring important implications not only to crucial aspects of future missions but also to the better understanding of planetary and earth sciences. By exploiting a novel statistical model, the evolution of particle fragmentation phenomena can be understood in terms of a descriptive maturity index, a measure of the number of fragmentation events that have produced the soil. This statistical model, which is mathematically constructed via fundamental physical principles, has been validated by terrestrial mineral grinding data and impact experiments. Applying the model to planetary surfaces, the number of fragmentation events is determined by production function curves that quantify the degree of impact cratering. The model quantifies the variation of the maturity index of the regolith with depth, with a high maturity index at the surface decreasing to a low index corresponding to the megaregolith of a blocky population and fractured bedrock. The measured lunar and martian particle size distributions at the surface is well matched by the model over several orders of magnitude. The continuous transition invoked by the model can be furthermore synthesised to provide temporal and spatial visualisations of the internal architecture of the Martian and Lunar regolith. Finally, the model is applied to the risk assessment and success criteria of future mission landings as well as drilling on planetary surfaces. The solutions to a variety of planetary fragmentation related problems can be found via exact mathematical foundations or through simulations using the particle population provided by the model's maturation.

Animal lifespan and human influence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Yang, S.

2002-01-01

Lifespan differs radically among organisms ever lived on earth, even among those roughly similar in size, shape, form, and physiology; Yet, in general, there exists a strong positive relationship between lifespan and body size. Although lifespans of humans and human-related (domestic) animals are becoming increasingly longer than that of other animals of similar sizes, the slope of the regression (lifespan-body size) line and the intercepts have been surprisingly stable over the course of the dramatic human population growth, indicating substantial depression in lifespans of many other animals probably due to shrunk and fragmented natural habitats. This article addresses two questions related to the lifespan-size relationship: (1) what caused the exceptions (e.g., a few remote human-related animals are also located above the regression line with great residuals) and why (e.g., could brain size or intelligence be a covariate in addition to body size in predicting lifespan?), and (2) whether continued human activities can eventually alter the ' natural' regression line in the future, and if so, how much. We also suggest similar research efforts to be extended to the plant world as well.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

INNULs: A novel design amplification strategy for retrotransposable elements for studying population variation.

PubMed

LaRue, Bobby L; Sinha, Sudhir K; Montgomery, Anne H; Thompson, Robyn; Klaskala, Lauren; Ge, Jianye; King, Jonathan; Turnbough, Meredith; Budowle, Bruce

2012-01-01

Retrotransposable elements (REs), consisting of long interspersed nuclear elements (LINEs) and short interspersed nuclear elements (SINEs), are a group of markers that can be useful for human identity testing. Until now, however, due to the inherent size difference (up to 6 kb in some instances) associated with insertion and null alleles (or INNULs), the use of REs for facilitated population studies has not been sought or practical. The size of the insertion elements (from a few hundred to several thousand bp) has proven to limit their utility as a marker because of the inefficient amplicon yield with PCR. A novel primer design now facilitates INNUL marker testing. A preliminary panel of single-locus markers was developed to evaluate the potential of typing these insertion elements. Nine INNULs (5 Alu and 4 LINEs) were typed in three major North American populations and analyzed for population genetic features. In addition, the variation of each marker among the sample populations provides insight of its potential use as individual identification or ancestral marker. INNUL markers were developed into fluorescently labeled single-loci PCR. Nine markers were developed with amplicons that were less than 180 bp in length, and, depending on the locus amplicons of the INNULs, alleles varied in size from 50 to 1 bp. This allele size is noteworthy because the insertion alleles of the 9 loci range in size from 297 to 6,195 bp. The allele distribution of the INNULs was assessed and analyzed in three major North American populations. Upon observation of the distribution of the alleles in three major North American populations, the markers generally met Hardy-Weinberg expectations, and there was little evidence of detectable levels of linkage disequilibrium. Due to varying distributions of the alleles in the major population groups tested, some of the markers might be better suited for use as an individual identification marker, while others are better suited for bio-ancestral studies. Using the primer design strategy described in our work, SINEs and (for the first time, to our knowledge) LINEs can be utilized as markers for studying population genetic variation that is more amenable to the limitations of the PCR technique. This study lays the foundation for future work of developing a multiplex panel of INNUL markers that can be used as a single-tube assay for human identity testing utilizing small amplicons (<180 bp), which could be useful for ancient or degraded forensic DNA samples. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Community-based efforts to prevent obesity: Australia-wide survey of projects.

PubMed

Nichols, Melanie S; Reynolds, Rebecca C; Waters, Elizabeth; Gill, Timothy; King, Lesley; Swinburn, Boyd A; Allender, Steven

2013-08-01

Community-based programs that affect healthy environments and policies have emerged as an effective response to high obesity levels in populations. Apart from limited individual reports, little is currently known about these programs, limiting the potential to provide effective support, to promote effective practice, prevent adverse outcomes and disseminate intervention results and experience. The aim of the present study was to identify the size and reach of current community-based obesity prevention projects in Australia and to examine their characteristics, program features (e.g. intervention setting), capacity and approach to obesity prevention. Detailed survey completed by representatives from community-based obesity prevention initiatives in Australia. There was wide variation in funding, capacity and approach to obesity prevention among the 78 participating projects. Median annual funding was Au$94900 (range Au$2500-$4.46 million). The most common intervention settings were schools (39%). Forty per cent of programs focused on a population group of ≥50000 people. A large proportion of respondents felt that they did not have sufficient resources or staff training to achieve project objectives. Community-based projects currently represent a very large investment by both government and non-government sectors for the prevention of obesity. Existing projects are diverse in size and scope, and reach large segments of the population. Further work is needed to identify the full extent of existing community actions and to monitor their reach and future 'scale up' to ensure that future activities aim for effective integration into systems, policies and environments. SO WHAT? Community-based programs make a substantial contribution to the prevention of obesity and promotion of healthy lifestyles in Australia. A risk of the current intervention landscape is that effective approaches may go unrecognised due to lack of effective evaluations or limitations in program design, duration or size. Policy makers and researchers must recognise the potential contribution of these initiatives, to both public health and knowledge generation, and provide support for strong evaluation and sustainable intervention designs.

Genetic structure of cougar populations across the Wyoming basin: Metapopulation or megapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.; McDonald, D.B.

2004-01-01

We examined the genetic structure of 5 Wyoming cougar (Puma concolor) populations surrounding the Wyoming Basin, as well as a population from southwestern Colorado. When using 9 microsatellite DNA loci, observed heterozygosity was similar among populations (HO = 0.49-0.59) and intermediate to that of other large carnivores. Estimates of genetic structure (FST = 0.028, RST = 0.029) and number of migrants per generation (Nm) suggested high gene flow. Nm was lowest between distant populations and highest among adjacent populations. Examination of these data, plus Mantel test results of genetic versus geographic distance (P ??? 0.01), suggested both isolation by distance and an effect of habitat matrix. Bayesian assignment to population based on individual genotypes showed that cougars in this region were best described as a single panmictic population. Total effective population size for cougars in this region ranged from 1,797 to 4,532 depending on mutation model and analytical method used. Based on measures of gene flow, extinction risk in the near future appears low. We found no support for the existence of metapopulation structure among cougars in this region.

Mapping the deep: The past and future promise of transneptunian surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannister, M.

2014-07-01

Exploring the populations and structure of the outer Solar System requires us to examine the sky. The improving sophistication of astronomical techniques have brought us in the last century from painstaking naked-eye examination of photographic plates to identify moving sources, to supercomputer-powered image subtraction that can pull moving sources from the depths of the Galactic plane. Such advances in our ability to discover new objects have allowed us to build an understanding of the Solar System's distant populations. The continued effort to survey the sky for new discoveries has explored the phase space of much of the transneptunian (TNO) size distribution. At the largest end, from wide-field surveys with small-to-medium optical telescopes in both North and Southern Hemispheres, the dwarf planets are now complete to m˜19.5 (Schwamb et al. 2014) and nearing completion to m˜21.5. Infrared surveys such as WISE have constrained the absence of a brown dwarf or large gas giant planet such that there can be no Saturn out to 28,000 au and no Jupiter out to 82,000 au (Luhman 2014). Similarly, pulsar timing measurements exclude line-of-sight shifts of the Solar System's barycentre due to any lurking giant planet (Verbiest et al. 2008); such timing measurements will only be improved by the Square Kilometre Array's all-sky decadal measurements of pulsars (Seto & Cooray 2007). The smaller, more abundant TNOs have been slowly constrained by surveys on larger facilities (as listed in Kavelaars et al and Petit et al. 2008): their part of the size distribution has a clear change in slope near H of 7 (Fraser et al. 2014). Characterisation of objects for their size, albedo, thermal properties and density has followed more slowly: Spitzer and Herschel have given us thermal properties; broad-band photometric surveys have shown that the colours of TNOs present distinct surface classes, ranging from the reddest in the Solar System to fully neutral reflectors; while large-aperture and space-based optical examination of the abundant binaries in the trans-Neptunian populations have offered insight into the formation processes of planetesimals. We are left today with a remnant of the primordial planetesimal disk that somehow escaped intact, and a dynamically-excited population, many of which are captured into a filigree of mean-motion resonances with Neptune. Trying to model the history of the Solar System to reach the present-day state, with its fine nuances of dynamical structure and uneven population ratios, requires accurate knowledge of the present-day populations. Every survey of the sky points at a particular region of orbital phase space; every aperture chosen as a survey tool specifies which part of the TNO size distribution will be measured. Such biases are straightforward to characterise, but they must be considered. There remains a persistent reliance on use of the Minor Planet Center's catalogue of TNOs as a representative sample of the underlying population. The unconsidered use of such a catalogue that interweaves many surveys' biases can lead to incorrect validation of models of the Solar System's history. Using only the TNO population distribution derived from fully characterised surveys is critical for models trying to reproduce the current outer Solar System. The hallmark of TNO surveys for decades now has been the discovery of entirely new populations. Will future surveys continue to reveal such surprises? What remains to explore? Fortunately, the need for abundant new discoveries, both further down the size distribution and in particular populations, including the remaining distant system, has been well recognised by the community. Occultation surveys offer the promise of exquisite constraints on the size distribution, particularly of smaller objects. In the infrared, the WISE mission continues in the form of NEOWISE, which may offer limits on objects large and warm enough to be visible at short λ. Optical surveys continue at m˜21 to ensure sky coverage is complete (Pan-STARRS). Significant new wide-field cameras on 4+ metre optical telescopes have recently come online, as well as time becoming more accessible to conduct large surveys as existing facilities mature: DECam on CTIO, Suprime/HyperSuprimeCam on Subaru, MegaPrime on CFHT and the Magellan 6.5 m. Efforts with these facilities include work to describe the Centaur size distribution (Schlichting et al.), add new Sednas to describe the inner Oort cloud (Trujillo and Sheppard 2014), and obtain precision estimates of the resonant populations in the Kuiper belt (Outer Solar System Origins Survey). These surveys are now ramping up, so a swathe of new discoveries can be anticipated in the coming year. The far future holds the promise from LSST to reach m_{r} ˜ 26 on the whole southern sky.

The interaction of neutral evolutionary processes with climatically-driven adaptive changes in the 3D shape of the human os coxae.

PubMed

Betti, Lia; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Manica, Andrea; Lycett, Stephen J

2014-08-01

Differences in the breadth of the pelvis among modern human populations and among extinct hominin species have often been interpreted in the light of thermoregulatory adaptation, whereby a larger pelvic girdle would help preserve body temperature in cold environments while a narrower pelvis would help dissipate heat in tropical climates. There is, however, a theoretical problem in interpreting a pattern of variation as evidence of selection without first accounting for the effects of neutral evolutionary processes (i.e., mutation, genetic drift and migration). Here, we analyse 3D configurations of 27 landmarks on the os coxae of 1494 modern human individuals representing 30 male and 23 female populations from five continents and a range of climatic conditions. We test for the effects of climate on the size and shape of the pelvic bone, while explicitly accounting for population history (i.e., geographically-mediated gene flow and genetic drift). We find that neutral processes account for a substantial proportion of shape variance in the human os coxae in both sexes. Beyond the neutral pattern due to population history, temperature is a significant predictor of shape and size variation in the os coxae, at least in males. The effect of climate on the shape of the pelvic bone, however, is comparatively limited, explaining only a small percentage of shape variation in males and females. In accordance with previous hypotheses, the size of the os coxae tends to increase with decreasing temperature, although the significance of the association is reduced when population history is taken into account. In conclusion, the shape and size of the human os coxae reflect both neutral evolutionary processes and climatically-driven adaptive changes. Neutral processes have a substantial effect on pelvic variation, suggesting such factors will need to be taken into account in future studies of human and fossil hominin coxal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Illicit Drug Users in the Tanzanian Hinterland: Population Size Estimation Through Key Informant-Driven Hot Spot Mapping.

PubMed

Ndayongeje, Joel; Msami, Amani; Laurent, Yovin Ivo; Mwankemwa, Syangu; Makumbuli, Moza; Ngonyani, Alois M; Tiberio, Jenny; Welty, Susie; Said, Christen; Morris, Meghan D; McFarland, Willi

2018-02-12

We mapped hot spots and estimated the numbers of people who use drugs (PWUD) and who inject drugs (PWID) in 12 regions of Tanzania. Primary (ie, current and past PWUD) and secondary (eg, police, service providers) key informants identified potential hot spots, which we visited to verify and count the number of PWUD and PWID present. Adjustments to counts and extrapolation to regional estimates were done by local experts through iterative rounds of discussion. Drug use, specifically cocaine and heroin, occurred in all regions. Tanga had the largest numbers of PWUD and PWID (5190 and 540, respectively), followed by Mwanza (3300 and 300, respectively). Findings highlight the need to strengthen awareness of drug use and develop prevention and harm reduction programs with broader reach in Tanzania. This exercise provides a foundation for understanding the extent and locations of drug use, a baseline for future size estimations, and a sampling frame for future research.

Island Economic Vulnerability to Natural Disasters—the case of Changdao

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.

2016-12-01

The paper take Changdao County as sample to analyze differentiated impacts of natural disasters on island counties. The result shows that under increased population densities, small islands quickly face binding size limitations and suffer diminished per-capita resources from sustained population increases. The isolated, high-risk geography of small islands exacerbate the scale of a natural disaster shock, rendering many risk-pooling local mechanisms ineffective; disaster assistance flows were also shown to be ineffective in this study. In an environment of increasing weather hazards and resources at risk, it is imperative to understand the determinants of natural disaster vulnerability towards future loss mitigation. Importantly, disaster-thwarting polices must consider perverse implications of economic development measures, such as per-capita income, and infrastructure investments interacting with increased population densities.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

PubMed

Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

PubMed

Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

2009-07-01

Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada.

PubMed

Blanco-Pastor, J L; Fernández-Mazuecos, M; Vargas, P

2013-08-01

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine-Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Critical factors for the recovery of marine mammals.

PubMed

Lotze, Heike K; Flemming, Joanna Mills; Magera, Anna M

2017-12-01

{en} Over the past decades, much research has focused on understanding the critical factors for marine extinctions with the aim of preventing further species losses in the oceans. Although conservation and management strategies are enabling several species and populations to recover, others remain at low abundance levels or continue to decline. To understand these discrepancies, we used a published database on abundance trends of 137 populations of marine mammals worldwide and compiled data on 28 potentially critical factors for recovery. We then applied random forests and additive mixed models to determine which intrinsic and extrinsic factors are critical for the recovery of marine mammals. A mix of life-history characteristics, ecological traits, phylogenetic relatedness, population size, geographic range, human impacts, and management efforts explained why populations recovered or not. Consistently, species with lower age at maturity and intermediate habitat area were more likely to recover, which is consistent with life-history and ecological theory. Body size, trophic level, social interactions, dominant habitat, ocean basin, and habitat disturbance also explained some differences in recovery patterns. Overall, a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors were important for species' recovery, pointing to cumulative effects. Our results provide insight for improving conservation and management strategies to enhance recoveries in the future. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Morphological and Genetic Variation along a North-to-South Transect in Stipa purpurea, a Dominant Grass on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Implications for Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

You, Jianling; Qi, Danhui; Zhou, Yin; Chen, Jiakuan; Song, Zhiping

2016-01-01

Estimating the potential of species to cope with rapid environmental climatic modifications is of vital importance for determining their future viability and conservation. The variation between existing populations along a climatic gradient may predict how a species will respond to future climate change. Stipa purpurea is a dominant grass species in the alpine steppe and meadow of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Ecological niche modelling was applied to S. purpurea, and its distribution was found to be most strongly correlated with the annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. We established a north-to-south transect over 2000 km long on the QTP reflecting the gradients of temperature and precipitation, and then we estimated the morphological by sampling fruited tussocks and genetic divergence by using 11 microsatellite markers between 20 populations along the transect. Reproductive traits (the number of seeds and reproductive shoots), the reproductive-vegetative growth ratio and the length of roots in the S. purpurea populations varied significantly with climate variables. S. purpurea has high genetic diversity (He = 0.585), a large effective population size (Ne >1,000), and a considerable level of gene flow between populations. The S. purpurea populations have a mosaic genetic structure: some distant populations (over 1000 km apart) clustered genetically, whereas closer populations (< 100 km apart) had diverged significantly, suggesting local adaptation. Asymmetrical long-distance inter-population gene flow occurs along the sampling transect and might be mediated by seed dispersal via migratory herbivores, such as the chiru (Pantholops hodgsonii). These findings suggest that population performance variation and gene flow both facilitate the response of S. purpurea to climate change. PMID:27580056

Metabolic and reproductive plasticity of core and marginal populations of the eurythermic saline water bug Sigara selecta (Hemiptera: Corixidae) in a climate change context.

PubMed

Carbonell, J A; Bilton, D T; Calosi, P; Millán, A; Stewart, A; Velasco, J

2017-04-01

Ongoing climate change is driving dramatic range shifts in diverse taxa worldwide, and species responses to global change are likely to be determined largely by population responses at geographical range margins. Here we investigate the metabolic and reproductive plasticity in response to water temperature and salinity variation of two populations of the eurythermic saline water bug Sigara selecta: one population located close to the northern edge of its distribution, in a relatively cold, thermally stable region (SE England - 'marginal'), and one close to the range centre, in a warmer and more thermally variable Mediterranean climate (SE Spain - 'core'). We compared metabolic and oviposition rates and egg size, following exposure to one of four different combinations of temperature (15 and 25°C) and salinity (10 and 35gL -1 ). Oviposition rate was significantly higher in the marginal population, although eggs laid were smaller overall. No significant differences in oxygen consumption rates were found between core and marginal populations, although the marginal population showed higher levels of plasticity in both metabolic and reproductive traits. Our results suggest that population-specific responses to environmental change are complex and may be mediated by differences in phenotypic plasticity. In S. selecta, the higher plasticity of the marginal population may facilitate both its persistence in current habitats and northward expansion with future climatic warming. The less plastic core population may be able to buffer current environmental variability with minor changes in metabolism and fecundity, but could be prone to extinction if temperature and salinity changes exceed physiological tolerance limits in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphological and Genetic Variation along a North-to-South Transect in Stipa purpurea, a Dominant Grass on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Implications for Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Liu, Wensheng; Zhao, Yao; You, Jianling; Qi, Danhui; Zhou, Yin; Chen, Jiakuan; Song, Zhiping

2016-01-01

Estimating the potential of species to cope with rapid environmental climatic modifications is of vital importance for determining their future viability and conservation. The variation between existing populations along a climatic gradient may predict how a species will respond to future climate change. Stipa purpurea is a dominant grass species in the alpine steppe and meadow of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Ecological niche modelling was applied to S. purpurea, and its distribution was found to be most strongly correlated with the annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. We established a north-to-south transect over 2000 km long on the QTP reflecting the gradients of temperature and precipitation, and then we estimated the morphological by sampling fruited tussocks and genetic divergence by using 11 microsatellite markers between 20 populations along the transect. Reproductive traits (the number of seeds and reproductive shoots), the reproductive-vegetative growth ratio and the length of roots in the S. purpurea populations varied significantly with climate variables. S. purpurea has high genetic diversity (He = 0.585), a large effective population size (Ne >1,000), and a considerable level of gene flow between populations. The S. purpurea populations have a mosaic genetic structure: some distant populations (over 1000 km apart) clustered genetically, whereas closer populations (< 100 km apart) had diverged significantly, suggesting local adaptation. Asymmetrical long-distance inter-population gene flow occurs along the sampling transect and might be mediated by seed dispersal via migratory herbivores, such as the chiru (Pantholops hodgsonii). These findings suggest that population performance variation and gene flow both facilitate the response of S. purpurea to climate change.

The distribution of nuclear genetic variation and historical demography of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aguilar, A.; Jessup, David A.; Estes, J.; Garza, J.C.

2008-01-01

The amount and distribution of population genetic variation is crucial information for the design of effective conservation strategies for endangered species and can also be used to provide inference about demographic processes and patterns of migration. Here, we describe variation at a large number of nuclear genes in sea otters Enhydra lutris ssp. We surveyed 14 variable microsatellite loci and two genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in up to 350 California sea otters Enhydra lutris nereis, which represents ∼10% of the subspecies' population, and 46 otters from two Alaskan sites. We utilized methods for detecting past reductions in effective population size to examine the effects of near extinction from the fur trade. Summary statistic tests largely failed to find a signal of a recent population size reduction (within the past 200 years), but a Bayesian method found a signal of a strong reduction over a longer time scale (up to 500 years ago). These results indicate that the reduction in size began long enough ago that much genetic variation was lost before the 19th century fur trade. A comparison of geographic distance and pairwise relatedness for individual otters found no evidence of kin-based spatial clustering for either gender. This indicates that there is no population structure, due to extended family groups, within the California population. A survey of population genetic variation found that two of the MHC genes, DQB and DRB, had two alleles present and one of the genes, DRA, was monomorphic in otters. This contrasts with other mammals, where they are often the most variable coding genes known. Genetic variation in the sea otter is among the lowest observed for a mammal and raises concerns about the long-term viability of the species, particularly in the face of future environmental changes.

The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2012-01-01

Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

The future liver of the Asia pacific: fatter and firmer from more fructose and fortune?

PubMed

Mahady, Suzanne E; George, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Asia Pacific region is the most diverse and the most populous region in the world. Recent socioeconomic changes have resulted in an emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Asian Pacific countries now approximates that seen in Western countries. This increase is fueled by rising obesity, partly due to adoption of Western style diets and exposure to compounds such as high fructose corn syrup that are not included in traditional diets. Furthermore, South Asian populations may be more genetically susceptible via the inheritance of polymorphisms in apolipoprotein 3 that increase insulin resistance and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Importantly, there remains a substantial lack of data on the incidence and natural history of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and subsequent complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian Pacific populations. This information gap prevents estimation of current and future disease burden and impedes efforts to lobby health policymakers to improve public health measures, as given the size of Asian Pacific populations, prevention rather than treatment of non-communicable diseases remains key. This review article addresses these issues and highlights research priorities for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease within the Asia Pacific region.

Aerosol Measurements of the Fine and Ultrafine Particle Content of Lunar Regolith

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, Paul S.; Chen, Da-Ren; Smith, Sally A.

2007-01-01

We report the first quantitative measurements of the ultrafine (20 to 100 nm) and fine (100 nm to 20 m) particulate components of Lunar surface regolith. The measurements were performed by gas-phase dispersal of the samples, and analysis using aerosol diagnostic techniques. This approach makes no a priori assumptions about the particle size distribution function as required by ensemble optical scattering methods, and is independent of refractive index and density. The method provides direct evaluation of effective transport diameters, in contrast to indirect scattering techniques or size information derived from two-dimensional projections of high magnification-images. The results demonstrate considerable populations in these size regimes. In light of the numerous difficulties attributed to dust exposure during the Apollo program, this outcome is of significant importance to the design of mitigation technologies for future Lunar exploration.

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

2007-01-01

Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic analysis.

Trends in maar crater size and shape using the global Maar Volcano Location and Shape (MaarVLS) database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graettinger, A. H.

2018-05-01

A maar crater is the top of a much larger subsurface diatreme structure produced by phreatomagmatic explosions and the size and shape of the crater reflects the growth history of that structure during an eruption. Recent experimental and geophysical research has shown that crater complexity can reflect subsurface complexity. Morphometry provides a means of characterizing a global population of maar craters in order to establish the typical size and shape of features. A global database of Quaternary maar crater planform morphometry indicates that maar craters are typically not circular and frequently have compound shapes resembling overlapping circles. Maar craters occur in volcanic fields that contain both small volume and complex volcanoes. The global perspective provided by the database shows that maars are common in many volcanic and tectonic settings producing a similar diversity of size and shape within and between volcanic fields. A few exceptional populations of maars were revealed by the database, highlighting directions of future research to improve our understanding on the geometry and spacing of subsurface explosions that produce maars. These outlying populations, such as anomalously large craters (>3000 m), chains of maars, and volcanic fields composed of mostly maar craters each represent a small portion of the database, but provide opportunities to reinvestigate fundamental questions on maar formation. Maar crater morphometry can be integrated with structural, hydrological studies to investigate lateral migration of phreatomagmatic explosion location in the subsurface. A comprehensive database of intact maar morphometry is also beneficial for the hunt for maar-diatremes on other planets.

A Cross-Sectional Survey to Estimate the Cat Population and Ownership Profiles in a Semirural Area of Central Italy.

PubMed

Carvelli, Andrea; Iacoponi, Francesca; Scaramozzino, Paola

2016-01-01

Understanding animal population size and its demographic features is essential to address Public Health policies as well as to provide valuable information to pet industries and veterinary practitioners. Nevertheless, official data on feline population are not available worldwide. In the present study, the owned cat population size, its demographic attributes, and the ownership profiles have been investigated through a face-to-face questionnaire in a semirural area of Central Italy. The human : cat ratio was equal to 6.8 (95% CI: 5.7-7.5); 29.3% of households own at least one cat. The majority of cats were living in a rural area (67.8%) and outdoors, were neutered (70.5%), and were fed with commercial food (54.8%) and they visited a veterinarian 1-2 times a year (43.3%). The cat ownership was strongly associated with people living in a rural area and owning another pet. As the cat owned population was mainly kept outdoors in rural areas, the possible relation between the owned and the stray animals is worthy to be monitored in future researches. Our study revealed that the feline owned population was larger than expected and that social and economic human factors do not influence the cat ownership. Health Authorities and veterinary practitioners should promote responsible ownership to increase the veterinary care, to intensify the official identification, and to properly manage the outdoor lifestyle.

A Statistical Skull Geometry Model for Children 0-3 Years Old

PubMed Central

Li, Zhigang; Park, Byoung-Keon; Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Jinhuan; Reed, Matthew P.; Rupp, Jonathan D.; Hoff, Carrie N.; Hu, Jingwen

2015-01-01

Head injury is the leading cause of fatality and long-term disability for children. Pediatric heads change rapidly in both size and shape during growth, especially for children under 3 years old (YO). To accurately assess the head injury risks for children, it is necessary to understand the geometry of the pediatric head and how morphologic features influence injury causation within the 0–3 YO population. In this study, head CT scans from fifty-six 0–3 YO children were used to develop a statistical model of pediatric skull geometry. Geometric features important for injury prediction, including skull size and shape, skull thickness and suture width, along with their variations among the sample population, were quantified through a series of image and statistical analyses. The size and shape of the pediatric skull change significantly with age and head circumference. The skull thickness and suture width vary with age, head circumference and location, which will have important effects on skull stiffness and injury prediction. The statistical geometry model developed in this study can provide a geometrical basis for future development of child anthropomorphic test devices and pediatric head finite element models. PMID:25992998

A statistical skull geometry model for children 0-3 years old.

PubMed

Li, Zhigang; Park, Byoung-Keon; Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Jinhuan; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hoff, Carrie N; Hu, Jingwen

2015-01-01

Head injury is the leading cause of fatality and long-term disability for children. Pediatric heads change rapidly in both size and shape during growth, especially for children under 3 years old (YO). To accurately assess the head injury risks for children, it is necessary to understand the geometry of the pediatric head and how morphologic features influence injury causation within the 0-3 YO population. In this study, head CT scans from fifty-six 0-3 YO children were used to develop a statistical model of pediatric skull geometry. Geometric features important for injury prediction, including skull size and shape, skull thickness and suture width, along with their variations among the sample population, were quantified through a series of image and statistical analyses. The size and shape of the pediatric skull change significantly with age and head circumference. The skull thickness and suture width vary with age, head circumference and location, which will have important effects on skull stiffness and injury prediction. The statistical geometry model developed in this study can provide a geometrical basis for future development of child anthropomorphic test devices and pediatric head finite element models.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Past and estimated future impact of invasive alien mammals on insular threatened vertebrate populations

PubMed Central

McCreless, Erin E.; Huff, David D.; Croll, Donald A.; Tershy, Bernie R.; Spatz, Dena R.; Holmes, Nick D.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Wilcox, Chris

2016-01-01

Invasive mammals on islands pose severe, ongoing threats to global biodiversity. However, the severity of threats from different mammals, and the role of interacting biotic and abiotic factors in driving extinctions, remain poorly understood at a global scale. Here we model global extirpation patterns for island populations of threatened and extinct vertebrates. Extirpations are driven by interacting factors including invasive rats, cats, pigs, mustelids and mongooses, native species taxonomic class and volancy, island size, precipitation and human presence. We show that controlling or eradicating the relevant invasive mammals could prevent 41–75% of predicted future extirpations. The magnitude of benefits varies across species and environments; for example, managing invasive mammals on small, dry islands could halve the extirpation risk for highly threatened birds and mammals, while doing so on large, wet islands may have little benefit. Our results provide quantitative estimates of conservation benefits and, when combined with costs in a return-on-investment framework, can guide efficient conservation strategies. PMID:27535095

Predicting free-space occupancy on novel artificial structures by an invasive intertidal barnacle using a removal experiment.

PubMed

Bracewell, Sally A; Robinson, Leonie A; Firth, Louise B; Knights, Antony M

2013-01-01

Artificial structures can create novel habitat in the marine environment that has been associated with the spread of invasive species. They are often located in areas of high disturbance and can vary significantly in the area of free space provided for settlement of marine organisms. Whilst correlation between the amount of free space available and recruitment success has been shown in populations of several marine benthic organisms, there has been relatively little focus on invasive species, a group with the potential to reproduce in vast numbers and colonise habitats rapidly. Invasion success following different scales of disturbance was examined in the invasive acorn barnacle, Austrominiusmodestus, on a unique art installation located in Liverpool Bay. Population growth and recruitment success were examined by comparing recruitment rates within disturbance clearings of 4 different sizes and by contrasting population development with early recruitment rates over a 10 week period. Disturbed areas were rapidly recolonised and monocultures of A. modestus formed within 6 weeks. The size of patch created during disturbance had no effect on the rate of recruitment, while a linear relationship between recruit density and patch size was observed. Density-dependent processes mediated initial high recruitment resulting in population stability after 8-10 weeks, but densities continued to greatly exceed those reported in natural habitats. Given that artificial structures are likely to continue to proliferate in light of climate change projections, free-space is likely to become more available more frequently in the future supporting the expansion of fast-colonising species.

Plasticity in reproduction and growth among 52 range-wide populations of a Mediterranean conifer: adaptive responses to environmental stress.

PubMed

Santos-Del-Blanco, L; Bonser, S P; Valladares, F; Chambel, M R; Climent, J

2013-09-01

A plastic response towards enhanced reproduction is expected in stressful environments, but it is assumed to trade off against vegetative growth and efficiency in the use of available resources deployed in reproduction [reproductive efficiency (RE)]. Evidence supporting this expectation is scarce for plants, particularly for long-lived species. Forest trees such as Mediterranean pines provide ideal models to study the adaptive value of allocation to reproduction vs. vegetative growth given their among-population differentiation for adaptive traits and their remarkable capacity to cope with dry and low-fertility environments. We studied 52 range-wide Pinus halepensis populations planted into two environmentally contrasting sites during their initial reproductive stage. We investigated the effect of site, population and their interaction on vegetative growth, threshold size for female reproduction, reproductive-vegetative size relationships and RE. We quantified correlations among traits and environmental variables to identify allocation trade-offs and ecotypic trends. Genetic variation for plasticity was high for vegetative growth, whereas it was nonsignificant for reproduction. Size-corrected reproduction was enhanced in the more stressful site supporting the expectation for adverse conditions to elicit plastic responses in reproductive allometry. However, RE was unrelated with early reproductive investment. Our results followed theoretical predictions and support that phenotypic plasticity for reproduction is adaptive under stressful environments. Considering expectations of increased drought in the Mediterranean, we hypothesize that phenotypic plasticity together with natural selection on reproductive traits will play a relevant role in the future adaptation of forest tree species. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Influence of Climate Warming on Arctic Mammals? New Insights from Ancient DNA Studies of the Collared Lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus

PubMed Central

Prost, Stefan; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Sommer, Robert S.; Stiller, Mathias; Nagel, Doris; Knapp, Michael; Hofreiter, Michael

2010-01-01

Background Global temperature increased by approximately half a degree (Celsius) within the last 150 years. Even this moderate warming had major impacts on Earth's ecological and biological systems, especially in the Arctic where the magnitude of abiotic changes even exceeds those in temperate and tropical biomes. Therefore, understanding the biological consequences of climate change on high latitudes is of critical importance for future conservation of the species living in this habitat. The past 25,000 years can be used as a model for such changes, as they were marked by prominent climatic changes that influenced geographical distribution, demographic history and pattern of genetic variation of many extant species. We sequenced ancient and modern DNA of the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus), which is a key species of the arctic biota, from a single site (Pymva Shor, Northern Pre Urals, Russia) to see if climate warming events after the Last Glacial Maximum had detectable effects on the genetic variation of this arctic rodent species, which is strongly associated with a cold and dry climate. Results Using three dimensional network reconstructions we found a dramatic decline in genetic diversity following the LGM. Model-based approaches such as Approximate Bayesian Computation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference show that there is evidence for a population decline in the collared lemming following the LGM, with the population size dropping to a minimum during the Greenland Interstadial 1 (Bølling/Allerød) warming phase at 14.5 kyrs BP. Conclusion Our results show that previous climate warming events had a strong influence on genetic diversity and population size of collared lemmings. Due to its already severely compromised genetic diversity a similar population reduction as a result of the predicted future climate change could completely abolish the remaining genetic diversity in this population. Local population extinctions of collared lemmings would have severe effects on the arctic ecosystem, as collared lemmings are a key species in the trophic interactions and ecosystem processes in the Arctic. PMID:20523724

Land-cover changes predict steep declines for the Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

PubMed Central

Wich, Serge A.; Singleton, Ian; Nowak, Matthew G.; Utami Atmoko, Sri Suci; Nisam, Gonda; Arif, Sugesti Mhd.; Putra, Rudi H.; Ardi, Rio; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Usher, Graham; Gaveau, David L. A.; Kühl, Hjalmar S.

2016-01-01

Positive news about Sumatran orangutans is rare. The species is critically endangered because of forest loss and poaching, and therefore, determining the impact of future land-use change on this species is important. To date, the total Sumatran orangutan population has been estimated at 6600 individuals. On the basis of new transect surveys, we estimate a population of 14,613 in 2015. This higher estimate is due to three factors. First, orangutans were found at higher elevations, elevations previously considered outside of their range and, consequently, not surveyed previously. Second, orangutans were found more widely distributed in logged forests. Third, orangutans were found in areas west of the Toba Lake that were not previously surveyed. This increase in numbers is therefore due to a more wide-ranging survey effort and is not indicative of an increase in the orangutan population in Sumatra. There are evidently more Sumatran orangutans remaining in the wild than we thought, but the species remains under serious threat. Current scenarios for future forest loss predict that as many as 4500 individuals could vanish by 2030. Despite the positive finding that the population is double the size previously estimated, our results indicate that future deforestation will continue to be the cause of rapid declines in orangutan numbers. Hence, we urge that all developmental planning involving forest loss be accompanied by appropriate environmental impact assessments conforming with the current national and provincial legislations, and, through these, implement specific measures to reduce or, better, avoid negative impacts on forests where orangutans occur. PMID:26973868

Land-cover changes predict steep declines for the Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii).

PubMed

Wich, Serge A; Singleton, Ian; Nowak, Matthew G; Utami Atmoko, Sri Suci; Nisam, Gonda; Arif, Sugesti Mhd; Putra, Rudi H; Ardi, Rio; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Usher, Graham; Gaveau, David L A; Kühl, Hjalmar S

2016-03-01

Positive news about Sumatran orangutans is rare. The species is critically endangered because of forest loss and poaching, and therefore, determining the impact of future land-use change on this species is important. To date, the total Sumatran orangutan population has been estimated at 6600 individuals. On the basis of new transect surveys, we estimate a population of 14,613 in 2015. This higher estimate is due to three factors. First, orangutans were found at higher elevations, elevations previously considered outside of their range and, consequently, not surveyed previously. Second, orangutans were found more widely distributed in logged forests. Third, orangutans were found in areas west of the Toba Lake that were not previously surveyed. This increase in numbers is therefore due to a more wide-ranging survey effort and is not indicative of an increase in the orangutan population in Sumatra. There are evidently more Sumatran orangutans remaining in the wild than we thought, but the species remains under serious threat. Current scenarios for future forest loss predict that as many as 4500 individuals could vanish by 2030. Despite the positive finding that the population is double the size previously estimated, our results indicate that future deforestation will continue to be the cause of rapid declines in orangutan numbers. Hence, we urge that all developmental planning involving forest loss be accompanied by appropriate environmental impact assessments conforming with the current national and provincial legislations, and, through these, implement specific measures to reduce or, better, avoid negative impacts on forests where orangutans occur.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Parental investment and the optimization of human family size

PubMed Central

Lawson, David W.; Mace, Ruth

2011-01-01

Human reproductive behaviour is marked by exceptional variation at the population and individual level. Human behavioural ecologists propose adaptive hypotheses to explain this variation as shifting phenotypic optima in relation to local socioecological niches. Here we review evidence that variation in fertility (offspring number), in both traditional and modern industrialized populations, represents optimization of the life-history trade-off between reproductive rate and parental investment. While a reliance on correlational methods suggests the true costs of sibling resource competition are often poorly estimated, a range of anthropological and demographic studies confirm that parents balance family size against offspring success. Evidence of optimization is less forthcoming. Declines in fertility associated with modernization are particularly difficult to reconcile with adaptive models, because fertility limitation fails to enhance offspring reproductive success. Yet, considering alternative measures, we show that modern low fertility confers many advantages on offspring, which are probably transmitted to future generations. Evidence from populations that have undergone or initiated demographic transition indicate that these rewards to fertility limitation fall selectively on relatively wealthy individuals. The adaptive significance of modern reproductive behaviour remains difficult to evaluate, but may be best understood in response to rising investment costs of rearing socially and economically competitive offspring. PMID:21199838

Genetic structure and conservation of Mountain Lions in the South-Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest

PubMed Central

Castilho, Camila S.; Marins-Sá, Luiz G.; Benedet, Rodrigo C.; Freitas, Thales R.O.

2012-01-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest, one of the most endangered ecosystems worldwide, is also among the most important hotspots as regards biodiversity. Through intensive logging, the initial area has been reduced to around 12% of its original size. In this study we investigated the genetic variability and structure of the mountain lion, Puma concolor. Using 18 microsatellite loci we analyzed evidence of allele dropout, null alleles and stuttering, calculated the number of allele/locus, PIC, observed and expected heterozygosity, linkage disequilibrium, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, FIS, effective population size and genetic structure (MICROCHECKER, CERVUS, GENEPOP, FSTAT, ARLEQUIN, ONESAMP, LDNe, PCAGEN, GENECLASS software), we also determine whether there was evidence of a bottleneck (HYBRIDLAB, BOTTLENECK software) that might influence the future viability of the population in south Brazil. 106 alleles were identified, with the number of alleles/locus ranging from 2 to 11. Mean observed heterozygosity, mean number of alleles and polymorphism information content were 0.609, 5.89, and 0.6255, respectively. This population presented evidence of a recent bottleneck and loss of genetic variation. Persistent regional poaching constitutes an increasing in the extinction risk. PMID:22481876

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific.

PubMed

Groom, Scott V C; Stevens, Mark I; Schwarz, Michael P

2014-06-22

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.

Tower counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woody, Carol Ann; Johnson, D.H.; Shrier, Brianna M.; O'Neal, Jennifer S.; Knutzen, John A.; Augerot, Xanthippe; O'Neal, Thomas A.; Pearsons, Todd N.

2007-01-01

Counting towers provide an accurate, low-cost, low-maintenance, low-technology, and easily mobilized escapement estimation program compared to other methods (e.g., weirs, hydroacoustics, mark-recapture, and aerial surveys) (Thompson 1962; Siebel 1967; Cousens et al. 1982; Symons and Waldichuk 1984; Anderson 2000; Alaska Department of Fish and Game 2003). Counting tower data has been found to be consistent with that of digital video counts (Edwards 2005). Counting towers do not interfere with natural fish migration patterns, nor are fish handled or stressed; however, their use is generally limited to clear rivers that meet specific site selection criteria. The data provided by counting tower sampling allow fishery managers to determine reproductive population size, estimate total return (escapement + catch) and its uncertainty, evaluate population productivity and trends, set harvest rates, determine spawning escapement goals, and forecast future returns (Alaska Department of Fish and Game 1974-2000 and 1975-2004). The number of spawning fish is determined by subtracting subsistence, sport-caught fish, and prespawn mortality from the total estimated escapement. The methods outlined in this protocol for tower counts can be used to provide reasonable estimates ( plus or minus 6%-10%) of reproductive salmon population size and run timing in clear rivers. 

Driving forces behind the Chinese public's demand for improved environmental safety.

PubMed

Wen, Ting; Wang, Jigan; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

2017-12-15

Over the past decades, the public demand for improved environmental safety keeps increasing in China. This study aims to assess the driving forces behind the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety using a provincial and multi-year (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014) panel data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The potential driving forces investigated included population size, income levels, degrees of urbanization, and educational levels. Results show that population size and educational level are positively (P<0.01) associated with public demand for improved environmental safety. No significant impact on demand was found due to the degree of urbanization. For the impact due to income level, an inverted U-shaped curve effect with the turning point of ~140,000 CNY GDP per capita is indicated. Since per capita GDP of 2015 in China was approximately 50,000 CNY and far from the turning point, the public demand for improved environmental safety will continue rising in the near future. To meet the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety, proactive and risk prevention based environmental management systems coupled with effective environmental risk communication should be established. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic Diversity in Introduced Populations with an Allee Effect

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Meike J.; Gabriel, Wilfried; Metzler, Dirk

2014-01-01

A phenomenon that strongly influences the demography of small introduced populations and thereby potentially their genetic diversity is the demographic Allee effect, a reduction in population growth rates at small population sizes. We take a stochastic modeling approach to investigate levels of genetic diversity in populations that successfully overcame either a strong Allee effect, in which populations smaller than a certain critical size are expected to decline, or a weak Allee effect, in which the population growth rate is reduced at small sizes but not negative. Our results indicate that compared to successful populations without an Allee effect, successful populations with a strong Allee effect tend to (1) derive from larger founder population sizes and thus have a higher initial amount of genetic variation, (2) spend fewer generations at small population sizes where genetic drift is particularly strong, and (3) spend more time around the critical population size and thus experience more genetic drift there. In the case of multiple introduction events, there is an additional increase in diversity because Allee-effect populations tend to derive from a larger number of introduction events than other populations. Altogether, a strong Allee effect can either increase or decrease genetic diversity, depending on the average founder population size. By contrast, a weak Allee effect tends to decrease genetic diversity across the entire range of founder population sizes. Finally, we show that it is possible in principle to infer critical population sizes from genetic data, although this would require information from many independently introduced populations. PMID:25009147

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Comparison of methods used to estimate numbers of walruses on sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gilbert, James R.; Fedoseev, Gennadii A.

2001-01-01

The US and former USSR conducted joint surveys of Pacific walruses on sea ice and at land haul-outs in 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. One of the difficulties in interpreting results of these surveys has been that, except for the 1990 survey, the Americans and Soviets used different methods for estimating population size from their respective portions of the sea ice data. We used data exchanged between Soviet and American scientists to compare and evaluate the two estimation procedures and to derive a set of alternative estimates from the 1975, 1980, and 1985 surveys based on a single consistent procedure. Estimation method had only a small effect on total population estimates because most walruses were found at land haul-outs. However, the Soviet method is subject to bias that depends on the distribution of the population on the sea ice and this has important implications for interpreting the ice portions of previously reported surveys for walruses and other pinniped species. We recommend that the American method be used in future surveys. Future research on survey methods for walruses should focus on other potential sources of bias and variation.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stirling, I.; McDonald, T.L.; Richardson, E.S.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2011-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture–recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2–4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 ± 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (<300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006.

PubMed

Stirling, Ian; McDonald, Trent L; Richardson, E S; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steven C

2011-04-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture-recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2-4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 +/- 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (< 300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2012-01-01

Despite relatively high survival in most years, both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the adult spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. In fact, fork length data indicate that all populations are largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is most dire for shortnose suckers. Future investigations should explore the connections between sucker recruitment and survival and various environmental factors, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Ocean acidification may aggravate social-ecological trade-offs in coastal fisheries.

PubMed

Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F; Schmidt, Jörn O; Kapaun, Ute

2015-01-01

Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local fisheries with limited operational ranges.

Eating habits of a population undergoing a rapid dietary transition: portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods and beverages consumed by Inuit adults in Nunavut, Canada

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To determine the portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods being consumed by Inuit adults in three remote communities in Nunavut, Canada. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out between June and October, 2008. Trained field workers collected dietary data using a culturally appropriate, validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) developed specifically for the study population. Results Caribou, muktuk (whale blubber and skin) and Arctic char (salmon family), were the most commonly consumed traditional foods; mean portion sizes for traditional foods ranged from 10 g for fermented seal fat to 424 g for fried caribou. Fried bannock and white bread were consumed by >85% of participants; mean portion sizes for these foods were 189 g and 70 g, respectively. Sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods were also widely consumed. Mean portion sizes for regular pop and sweetened juices with added sugar were 663 g and 572 g, respectively. Mean portion sizes for potato chips, pilot biscuits, cakes, chocolate and cookies were 59 g, 59 g, 106 g, 59 g, and 46 g, respectively. Conclusions The present study provides further evidence of the nutrition transition that is occurring among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. It also highlights a number of foods and beverages that could be targeted in future nutritional intervention programs aimed at obesity and diet-related chronic disease prevention in these and other Inuit communities. PMID:23724920

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Majority Group Members' Negative Reactions to Future Demographic Shifts Depend on the Perceived Legitimacy of Their Status: Findings from the United States and Portugal.

PubMed

Outten, H Robert; Lee, Timothy; Costa-Lopes, Rui; Schmitt, Michael T; Vala, Jorge

2018-01-01

Using concepts from social identity theory (Tajfel and Turner, 1979), we examined whether racial/ethnic majority group members' reactions to future demographic shifts is a function of the degree to which they perceive their ingroup's higher-status in society to be legitimate. In two studies, participants who varied in the degree to which they perceived their group's status to be legitimate were either exposed to real projections for 2060 (i.e., large decline in proportion of population that is the "majority" group), or fake projections for 2060-that resembled current figures (i.e., small decline). In Study 1, White Americans who perceived their status to be highly legitimate expressed greater intergroup threat, and negative feelings (anger and fear) toward minorities after exposure to projections with a large decline in the relative size of the White American population. In contrast, demographic shift condition had no effect on intergroup threat and negative feelings toward minorities among White Americans who perceived their status to be relatively illegitimate; negative feelings and threat remained low across both conditions. Similarly, in Study 2, ethnic Portuguese people in Portugal exposed to projections in which there was a large decline in the relative size of the ethnic Portuguese population experienced more intergroup threat and expressed a greater desire to engage in anti-immigration behaviors. The effect of demographic shift condition on intergroup threat and anti-immigration behaviors was stronger among ethnic Portuguese who perceived their status to be legitimate compared to ethnic Portuguese people who perceived their status to be relatively illegitimate. These results highlight that across different cultural contexts, majority group members' beliefs about the legitimacy of intergroup relations can affect their reactions to the prospect of increased diversity.

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Preliminary investigations of the winter ecology of Long-billed Curlews in coastal Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodin, Marc C.; Skoruppa, Mary Kay; Edwardson, Jeremy W.; Austin, Jane E.

2012-01-01

Results from this 1-year pilot study yielded an intriguing combination of findings that warrant further investigation. Observations include reduced numbers of roosting birds along the Texas coast during dry conditions, highly dynamic use of nocturnal roost sites, use of widely divergent habitat types for foraging, low body mass of most captured birds, and apparent fidelity to general feeding areas. Future investigations of this eastern winter population of curlews would benefit from larger sample sizes and monitoring of individual birds.

Sperm cryopreservation in endangered felids: developing linkage of in situ-ex situ populations.

PubMed

Swanson, W F; Magarey, G M; Herrick, J R

2007-01-01

Many of the world's cat species face growing threats to their continued survival in nature. For some species, managed captive populations may provide a reservoir for future reintroduction or genetic augmentation. Because most zoo populations are derived from small founder sizes and are subject to loss of genetic variation over time, periodic infusion of founder alleles is necessary to avoid the dire consequences of inbreeding. Collection and freezing of semen from free-living nondomestic felids offers a viable option for introducing founder genes into captive populations without removal of animals from the wild. The effective application of this strategy requires established protocols for safely capturing and anaesthetising wild cats coupled with suitable methods of semen recovery, processing and cryopreservation under field conditions. In small-sized non-domestic felids, the general feasibility of this approach is being explored in two studies of black-footed cats and Pallas' cats. Two factors - relatively low sperm numbers per ejaculate and compromised status of frozen-thawed cat spermatozoa - suggest that in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and embryo transfer present the most efficient use of this limiting resource in small-sized cats. Our studies with captive felids have explored alternative methods of sperm cryopreservation that are adaptable to field situations and shown that frozen-thawed spermatozoa from Pallas' cats, ocelots, and fishing cats exhibit adequate function to fertilise heterologous and/or homologous oocytes in vitro. Most recently, we investigated the fertilising capacity of frozen-thawed spermatozoa obtained from wild Pallas' cats in Mongolia. Combined with improved methods for embryo culture and transfer in small cat species, sperm banking in situ will facilitate introduction of new founders into captive populations without causing further depletion of their wild counterparts. As one component of holistic conservation programs, including ongoing support of field ecology studies in range countries, this reproductive strategy serves to further strengthen linkages among imperiled ex situ and in situ cat populations.

CLU rs2279590 polymorphism contributes to Alzheimer's disease susceptibility in Caucasian and Asian populations.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuyan; Zhang, Donghui; Jiang, Yongshuai; Wu, Lina; Shang, Hong; Liu, Jiafeng; Feng, Rennan; Liao, Mingzhi; Zhang, Liangcai; Liu, Yong; Liu, Guiyou; Li, Keshen

2015-03-01

It is reported that CLU rs2279590 polymorphism is significantly associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) in European ancestry. Recent studies investigated rs2279590 polymorphism in Asian population (Chinese, Japanese and Korean). Four studies showed negative association and two studies showed weak association between rs2279590 and AD. We believe that the weak association or no association may be caused by the relatively small sample size in Asian population. Here, we reinvestigated the association in Asian population. Meanwhile, to investigate the genetic heterogeneity of the rs2279590 polymorphism in Asian and Caucasian populations, we searched the PubMed and AlzGene databases and selected 11 independent studies (6 studies in Asian population and 5 studies in Caucasian population) including 20,655 individuals (8,605 cases and 12,050 controls) for meta-analysis. Our results showed significant association between rs2279590 polymorphism and AD in Asian population with P = 2.00E-04 and P = 2.00E-04 using additive and recessive models, respectively. We observed no significant heterogeneity between Asian and Caucasian populations. We believe that our results may be helpful to understand the mechanisms of CLU in AD pathogenesis and will be useful for future genetic studies in AD.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.

2004-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1983-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Urinary Sugars--A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake.

PubMed

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-07-15

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies.

Urinary Sugars—A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake

PubMed Central

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-01-01

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies. PMID:26184307

Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pease, C.M.; Mattson, D.J.

1999-01-01

We undertook a demographic analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) to identify critical environmental factors controlling grizzly bear vital rates, and thereby to help evaluate the effectiveness of past management and to identify future conservation issues. We concluded that, within the limits of uncertainty implied by the available data and our methods of data analysis, the size of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population changed little from 1975 to 1995. We found that grizzly bear mortality rates are about double in years when the whitebark pine crop fails than in mast years, and that the population probably declines when the crop fails and increases in mast years. Our model suggests that natural variation in whitebark pine crop size over the last two decades explains more of the perceived fluctuations in Yellowstone grizzly population size than do other variables. Our analysis used demographic data from 202 radio-telemetered bears followed between 1975 and 1992 and accounted for whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) crop failures during 1993-1995. We used a maximum likelihood method to estimate demographic parameters and used the Akaike Information Criteria to judge the significance of various independent variables. We identified no independent variables correlated with grizzly bear fecundity. In order of importance, we found that grizzly bear mortality rates are correlated with season, whitebark pine crop size (mast vs. nonmast year), sex, management-trapping status (never management-trapped vs. management-trapped once or more), and age. The mortality rate of bears that were management-trapped at least once was almost double that of bears that were never management-trapped, implying a source/sink (i.e., never management-trapped/management-trapped) structure. The rate at which bears move between the source and sink, estimated as the management-trapping rate (h), is critical to estimating the finite rate of increase, I>I?. We quantified h by estimating the rate at which bears that have never been management-trapped are management-trapped for the first time. It differed across seasons, was higher in nonmast than mast years, and varied with age. We calculate that I>I?=1.00 from 1975 to 1983 (four mast and five nonmast years) and 1.02 from 1984 to 1995 (seven mast and five nonmast years). Overall, we find that I>I?=1.01A? 0.04 (mean A? 1 SE) from 1975 to 1995. Our models suggest that future management should concentrate on the threats to whitebark pine, such as those posed by white pine blister rust, global warming, and fire suppression. As is currently widely recognized by Yellowstone land managers, our model also suggests that future management must compensate for the increased grizzly bear mortality that is likely to be caused by an increasing number of humans in Yellowstone.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Flux of Kilogram-Sized Meteoroids from Lunar Impact Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Robert; Suggs, Ron; Cooke, William; McNamara, Heather; Diekmann, Anne; Moser, Danielle; Swift, Wesley

2008-01-01

Routine lunar impact monitoring has harvested over 110 impacts in 2 years of observations using 0.25, 0.36 and 0.5 m telescopes and low-light-level video cameras. The night side of the lunar surface provides a large collecting area for detecting these impacts and allows estimation of the flux of meteoroids down to a limiting luminous energy. In order to determine the limiting mass for these observations, models of the sporadic meteoroid environment were used to determine the velocity distribution and new measurements of luminous efficiency were made at the Ames Vertical Gun Range. The flux of meteoroids in this size range has implications for Near Earth Object populations as well as for estimating impact ejecta risk for future lunar missions.

Contribution of explosion and future collision fragments to the orbital debris environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, S.-Y.; Kessler, D. J.

1985-01-01

The time evolution of the near-earth man-made orbital debris environment modeled by numerical simulation is presented in this paper. The model starts with a data base of orbital debris objects which are tracked by the NORAD ground radar system. The current untrackable small objects are assumed to result from explosions and are predicted from data collected from a ground explosion experiment. Future collisions between earth orbiting objects are handled by the Monte Carlo method to simulate the range of collision possibilities that may occur in the real world. The collision fragmentation process between debris objects is calculated using an empirical formula derived from a laboratory spacecraft impact experiment to obtain the number versus size distribution of the newly generated debris population. The evolution of the future space debris environment is compared with the natural meteoroid background for the relative spacecraft penetration hazard.

Ultrasonographic measurements of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in prediction of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Mathiesen, E B; Johnsen, S H

2009-01-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque measurements are widely used to quantify atherosclerosis and assess the risk of future stroke, and are used as surrogate endpoints for clinical disease. In recent years, it has become clear that carotid IMT and plaque reflect biologically and genetically different aspects of the atherosclerotic process, and are differentially related to risk factors and cardiovascular disease. Plaques are focal manifestations of atherosclerosis while increased IMT represents mainly hypertensive medial hypertrophy. Several prospective studies have showed that IMT and plaque measurements, such as total plaque area and plaque number, are predictive of future stroke. Plaque echogenicity predicts future stroke independent of plaque size. The contribution of IMT and plaque measurements in individual stroke risk prediction in the general population seems to be limited, but may be useful as a tool for individual stratification of high-risk patients.

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Stochastic analysis of future vehicle populations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-05-01

The purpose of this study was to build a stochastic model of future vehicle populations. Such a model can be used to investigate the uncertainties inherent in Future Vehicle Populations. The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Sto...

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

PubMed

Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

2011-06-01

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population supplementation. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

PubMed

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

Adaptive phenotypic response to climate enabled by epigenetics in a K-strategy species, the fish Leucoraja ocellata (Rajidae)

PubMed Central

Incarnato, Danny; Ward, Ben J.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Bradbury, Ian; Hanson, Mark; Bentzen, Paul

2016-01-01

The relative importance of genetic versus epigenetic changes in adaptive evolution is a hotly debated topic, with studies showing that some species appear to be able to adapt rapidly without significant genetic change. Epigenetic mechanisms may be particularly important for the evolutionary potential of species with long maturation times and low reproductive potential (‘K-strategists’), particularly when faced with rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here we study the transcriptome of two populations of the winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata), a typical ‘K-strategist’, in Atlantic Canada; an endemic population in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence and a large population on the Scotian Shelf. The endemic population has been able to adapt to a 10°C higher water temperature over short evolutionary time (7000 years), dramatically reducing its body size (by 45%) significantly below the minimum maturation size of Scotian Shelf and other populations of winter skate, as well as exhibiting other adaptations in life history and physiology. We demonstrate that the adaptive response to selection has an epigenetic basis, cataloguing 3653 changes in gene expression that may have enabled this species to rapidly respond to the novel environment. We argue that the epigenetic augmentation of species evolutionary potential (its regulation though gene expression) can enable K-strategists to survive and adapt to different environments, and this mechanism may be particularly important for the persistence of sharks, skates and rays in the light of future climate change. PMID:27853546

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions.

PubMed

Brandt, Adam R; Heath, Garvin A; Cooley, Daniel

2016-11-15

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4 ) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ∼15 000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage data sets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of the total leakage volume. While prior studies used log-normal model distributions, we show that log-normal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of data sets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

DOE PAGES

Brandt, Adam R.; Heath, Garvin A.; Cooley, Daniel

2016-10-14

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of themore » total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.« less

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, Adam R.; Heath, Garvin A.; Cooley, Daniel

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of themore » total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.« less

An adaptive strategy for active debris removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Adam E.; Lewis, Hugh G.

2014-04-01

Many parameters influence the evolution of the near-Earth debris population, including launch, solar, explosion and mitigation activities, as well as other future uncertainties such as advances in space technology or changes in social and economic drivers that effect the utilisation of space activities. These factors lead to uncertainty in the long-term debris population. This uncertainty makes it difficult to identify potential remediation strategies, involving active debris removal (ADR), that will perform effectively in all possible future cases. Strategies that cannot perform effectively, because of this uncertainty, risk either not achieving their intended purpose, or becoming a hindrance to the efforts of spacecraft manufactures and operators to address the challenges posed by space debris. One method to tackle this uncertainty is to create a strategy that can adapt and respond to the space debris population. This work explores the concept of an adaptive strategy, in terms of the number of objects required to be removed by ADR, to prevent the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris population from growing in size. This was demonstrated by utilising the University of Southampton’s Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) tool to investigate ADR rates (number of removals per year) that change over time in response to the current space environment, with the requirement of achieving zero growth of the LEO population. DAMAGE was used to generate multiple Monte Carlo projections of the future LEO debris environment. Within each future projection, the debris removal rate was derived at five-year intervals, by a new statistical debris evolutionary model called the Computational Adaptive Strategy to Control Accurately the Debris Environment (CASCADE) model. CASCADE predicted the long-term evolution of the current DAMAGE population with a variety of different ADR rates in order to identify a removal rate that produced a zero net growth for that particular projection after 200 years. The results show that using an adaptive ADR rate generated by CASCADE, alongside good compliance with existing mitigation measures, increases the probability of achieving a constant LEO population of objects greater than 10 cm. This was shown to be 12% greater compared with removing five objects per year, with the additional advantage of requiring only 3.1 removals per year, on average.

Fifteen years of quantitative trait loci studies in fish: challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Ashton, David T; Ritchie, Peter A; Wellenreuther, Maren

2017-03-01

Understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic variation is a major challenge in biology. Here, we systematically evaluate 146 quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies on teleost fish over the last 15 years to investigate (i) temporal trends and (ii) factors affecting QTL detection and fine-mapping. The number of fish QTL studies per year increased over the review period and identified a cumulative number of 3632 putative QTLs. Most studies used linkage-based mapping approaches and were conducted on nonmodel species with limited genomic resources. A gradual and moderate increase in the size of the mapping population and a sharp increase in marker density from 2011 onwards were observed; however, the number of QTLs and variance explained by QTLs changed only minimally over the review period. Based on these findings, we discuss the causative factors and outline how larger sample sizes, phenomics, comparative genomics, epigenetics and software development could improve both the quantity and quality of QTLs in future genotype-phenotype studies. Given that the technical limitations on DNA sequencing have mostly been overcome in recent years, a renewed focus on these and other study design factors will likely lead to significant improvements in QTL studies in the future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

2007-01-01

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

Applications of bioenergetics models to fish ecology and management: where do we go from here?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Boisclair, Daniel; Brandt, Stephen B.; Hewett, Steven W.; Kitchell, James F.; Lucas, Martyn C.; Ney, John J.

1993-01-01

Papers and panel discussions given during a 1992 symposium on bioenergetics models are summarized. Bioenergetics models have been applied to a variety of research and management questions related to fish stocks, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. Applications include estimates of the intensity and dynamics of predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling within aquatic food webs of varying trophic structure, and food requirements of single animals, whole populations, and communities of fishes. As tools in food web and ecosystem applications, bioenergetics models have been used to compare forage consumption by salmonid predators across the Laurentian Great Lakes for single populations and whole communities, and to estimate the growth potential of pelagic predators in Chesapeake Bay and Lake Ontario. Some critics say that bioenergetics models lack sufficient detail to produce reliable results in such field applications, whereas others say that the models are too complex to be useful tools for fishery managers. Nevertheless, bioenergetics models have achieved notable predictive successes. Improved estimates are needed for model parameters such as metabolic costs of activity, and more complete studies are needed of the bioenergetics of larval and juvenile fishes. Future research on bioenergetics should include laboratory and field measurements of key model parameters such as weight-dependent maximum consumption, respiration and activity, and thermal habitats actually occupied by fish. Future applications of bioenergetics models to fish populations also depend on accurate estimates of population sizes and survival rates.

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

Assessment of survival rates and reproductive success of captive bred milky stork released at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary, Perak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faiq, H.; Safie, M. Y.; Shukor, M. N.

2016-11-01

A release programme of captive bred Milky Storks was initiated to increase population size in the wild. Population size depends on the survival rate and breeding success of individuals in the population. Among factors that affect survival rate and breeding success are population age class and sex ratio. The main objective of this study was to estimate the survival rate of Mycteria cinerea that has been released in Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary since 2007. The estimation of the survival rate was done across gender and age class. This study was conducted in 2012 at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary. The presence of M. cinerea individuals were recorded at the sanctuary and identified to background information, such as date of birth, gender and date of release. Females of M. cinerea were estimated to have a higher survival rate (30.0%) than male (16.7%). Across gender, each individual was assigned into 4 different age classes, namely less than 1 year, between 1 and 2 years, between 2 and 3 years, and more than 3 years. The survival rate of individuals less than 1 year was about 50%, between 1 and 2 years was 25%, between 2 and 3 years was 9.1%, and more than 3 years was 0%. This study was intended to facilitate future release programmeme on which gender and age class to emphasize.

Effects of consumption-oriented versus trophy-oriented fisheries on Muskellunge population size structure in northern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faust, Matthew D.; Hansen, Michael J.

2016-01-01

To determine whether a consumption-oriented fishery was compatible with a trophy-oriented fishery for Muskellunge Esox masquinongy, we modeled effects of a spearing fishery and recreational angling fishery on population size structure (i.e., numbers of fish ≥ 102, 114, and 127 cm) in northern Wisconsin. An individual-based simulation model was used to quantify the effect of harvest mortality at currently observed levels of recreational angling and tribal spearing fishery exploitation, along with simulated increases in exploitation, for three typical growth potentials (i.e., low, moderate, and high) of Muskellunge in northern Wisconsin across a variety of minimum length limits (i.e., 71, 102, 114, and 127 cm). Populations with moderate to high growth potential and minimum length limits ≥ 114 cm were predicted to have lower declines in numbers of trophy Muskellunge when subjected to angling-only and mixed fisheries at observed and increased levels of exploitation, which suggested that fisheries with disparate motivations may be able to coexist under certain conditions such as restrictive length limits and low levels of exploitation. However, for most Muskellunge populations in northern Wisconsin regulated by a 102-cm minimum length limit, both angling and spearing fisheries may reduce numbers of trophy Muskellunge as larger declines were predicted across all growth potentials. Our results may be useful if Muskellunge management options in northern Wisconsin are re-examined in the future.

Rock size-frequency distributions analysis at lunar landing sites based on remote sensing and in-situ imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Ling, Zongcheng; Zhang, Jiang; Chen, Jian

2017-10-01

Rock populations can supply fundamental geological information about origin and evolution of a planet. In this paper, we used Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) narrow-angle camera (NAC) images to identify rocks at the lunar landing sites (including Chang'e 3 (CE-3), Apollo and Surveyor series). The diameter and area of each identified rock were measured to generate distributions of rock cumulative fractional area and size-frequency on a log-log plot. The two distributions both represented the same shallow slopes at smaller diameters followed by steeper slopes at larger diameters. A reasonable explanation for the lower slopes may be the resolution and space weathering effects. By excluding the smaller diameters, rock populations derived from NAC images showed approximately linear relationships and could be fitted well by power laws. In the last, the entire rock populations derived from both NAC and in-situ imagery could be described by one power function at the lunar landing sites except the CE-3 and Apollo 11 landing sites. This may be because that the process of a large rock breaking down to small rocks even fine particles can be modeled by fractal theories. Thus, rock populations on lunar surfaces can be extrapolated along the curves of rock populations derived from NAC images to smaller diameters. In the future, we can apply rock populations from remote sensing images to estimate the number of rocks with smaller diameters to select the appropriate landing sites for the CE-4 and CE-5 missions.

Numerical solution of a logistic growth model for a population with Allee effect considering fuzzy initial values and fuzzy parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Z.; Nurkholipah, N. S.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

Predicting the future of population number is among the important factors that affect the consideration in preparing a good management for the population. This has been done by various known method, one among them is by developing a mathematical model describing the growth of the population. The model usually takes form in a differential equation or a system of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. The most widely used growth models currently are those having a sigmoid solution of time series, including the Verhulst logistic equation and the Gompertz equation. In this paper we consider the Allee effect of the Verhulst’s logistic population model. The Allee effect is a phenomenon in biology showing a high correlation between population size or density and the mean individual fitness of the population. The method used to derive the solution is the Runge-Kutta numerical scheme, since it is in general regarded as one among the good numerical scheme which is relatively easy to implement. Further exploration is done via the fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate the impreciseness of the initial values and parameters in the model.

Potential (Mis)match? Marriage Markets Amidst Sociodemographic Change in India, 2005-2050.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-02-01

We explore the impact of sociodemographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities-contemporary patterns by age, contemporary patterns by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries--to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: (1) female deficit in sex ratios at birth; (2) declining birth cohort size; (3) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRBs) in India's population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India's population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differences and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005-2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to multistate population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today's age patterns of marriage are viewed against age/sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women--particularly those with higher education--experience a more salient rise in nonmarriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns toward greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in nonmarriage.

Population status of chimpanzees in the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem, Tanzania.

PubMed

Piel, Alex K; Cohen, Naomi; Kamenya, Shadrack; Ndimuligo, Sood A; Pintea, Lilian; Stewart, Fiona A

2015-10-01

More than 75 percent of Tanzania's chimpanzees live at low densities on land outside national parks. Chimpanzees are one of the key conservation targets in the region and long-term monitoring of these populations is essential for assessing the overall status of ecosystem health and the success of implemented conservation strategies. We aimed to assess change in chimpanzee density within the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem (MUE) by comparing results of re-walking the same line transects in 2007 and 2014. We further used published remote sensing data derived from Landsat satellites to assess forest cover change within a 5 km buffer of these transects over that same period. We detected no statistically significant decline in chimpanzee density across the surveyed areas of MUE between 2007 and 2014, although the overall mean density of chimpanzees declined from 0.09 individuals/km(2) in 2007 to 0.05 individuals/km(2) in 2014. Whether this change is biologically meaningful cannot be determined due to small sample sizes and large, entirely overlapping error margins. It is therefore possible that the MUE chimpanzee population has been stable over this period and indeed in some areas (Issa Valley, Mkanga, Kamkulu) even showed an increase in chimpanzee density. Variation in chimpanzee habitat preference for ranging or nesting could explain variation in density at some of the survey sites between 2007 and 2014. We also found a relationship between increasing habitat loss and lower mean chimpanzee density. Future surveys will need to ensure a larger sample size, broader geographic effort, and random survey design, to more precisely determine trends in MUE chimpanzee density and population size over time. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of logging, hunting, and forest fragment size on physiological stress levels of two sympatric ateline primates in Colombia

PubMed Central

Rimbach, Rebecca; Link, Andrés; Heistermann, Michael; Gómez-Posada, Carolina; Galvis, Nelson; Heymann, Eckhard W.

2013-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbances are of major concern to the conservation of endangered species because of their potentially negative impact on animal populations. Both processes can impose physiological stress (i.e. increased glucocorticoid output) on animals, and chronically elevated stress levels can have detrimental effects on the long-term viability of animal populations. Here, we investigated the effect of fragment size and human impact (logging and hunting pressure) on glucocorticoid levels of two sympatric Neotropical primates, the red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) and the critically endangered brown spider monkey (Ateles hybridus). These two species have been reported to contrast strongly in their ability to cope with anthropogenic disturbances. We collected faecal samples from eight spider monkey groups and 31 howler monkey groups, living in seven and 10 different forest fragments in Colombia, respectively. We measured faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGCM) levels in both species using previously validated methods. Surprisingly, fragment size did not influence FGCM levels in either species. Spider monkeys showed elevated FGCMs in fragments with the highest level of human impact, whereas we did not find this effect in howler monkeys. This suggests that the two species differ in their physiological responsiveness to anthropogenic changes, further emphasizing why brown spider monkeys are at higher extinction risk than red howler monkeys. If these anthropogenic disturbances persist in the long term, elevated FGCM levels can potentially lead to a state of chronic stress, which might limit the future viability of populations. We propose that FGCM measurements should be used as a tool to monitor populations living in disturbed areas and to assess the success of conservation strategies, such as corridors connecting forest fragments. PMID:27293615

Altered Breast Development in Young Girls from an Agricultural Environment

PubMed Central

Guillette, Elizabeth A.; Conard, Craig; Lares, Fernando; Aguilar, Maria Guadalupe; McLachlan, John; Guillette, Louis J.

2006-01-01

In several human populations, the age at which female breast development begins is reported to have declined over the last five decades. Much debate has occurred over whether this reported decline has actually occurred and what factors contribute to it. However, geographical patterns reflecting earlier developmental onset in some human populations suggest environmental factors influence this phenomenon. These factors include interactions between genetic makeup, nutrition, and possible cumulative exposure to estrogens, both endogenous as well as environmental beginning during in utero development. We examined the onset of breast development in a group of peripubertal girls from the Yaqui Valley of Sonora, Mexico. We observed that girls from valley towns, areas using modern agricultural practices, exhibited larger breast fields than those of girls living in the foothills who exhibited similar stature [e.g., weight, height, body mass index (BMI)], and genetic background. Further, girls from valley towns displayed a poorly defined relationship between breast size and mammary gland development, whereas girls from the Yaqui foothills, where traditional ranching occurs, show a robust positive relationship between breast size and mammary size. The differences noted were obtained by a medically based exam involving morphometric analysis and palpation of tissues, in contrast to visual staging alone. In fact, use of the Tanner scale, involving visual staging of breast development for puberty, detected no differences between the study populations. Mammary tissue, determined by palpation, was absent in 18.5% of the girls living in agricultural areas, although palpable breast adipose tissue was present. No relationship was seen between mammary diameter and weight or BMI in either population. These data suggest that future in-depth studies examining mammary tissue growth and fat deposition in breast tissue are required if we are to understand environmental influences on these phenomena. PMID:16507474

Is the Cortical Deficit in Amblyopia Due to Reduced Cortical Magnification, Loss of Neural Resolution, or Neural Disorganization?

PubMed

Clavagnier, Simon; Dumoulin, Serge O; Hess, Robert F

2015-11-04

The neural basis of amblyopia is a matter of debate. The following possibilities have been suggested: loss of foveal cells, reduced cortical magnification, loss of spatial resolution of foveal cells, and topographical disarray in the cellular map. To resolve this we undertook a population receptive field (pRF) functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis in the central field in humans with moderate-to-severe amblyopia. We measured the relationship between averaged pRF size and retinal eccentricity in retinotopic visual areas. Results showed that cortical magnification is normal in the foveal field of strabismic amblyopes. However, the pRF sizes are enlarged for the amblyopic eye. We speculate that the pRF enlargement reflects loss of cellular resolution or an increased cellular positional disarray within the representation of the amblyopic eye. The neural basis of amblyopia, a visual deficit affecting 3% of the human population, remains a matter of debate. We undertook the first population receptive field functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis in participants with amblyopia and compared the projections from the amblyopic and fellow normal eye in the visual cortex. The projection from the amblyopic eye was found to have a normal cortical magnification factor, enlarged population receptive field sizes, and topographic disorganization in all early visual areas. This is consistent with an explanation of amblyopia as an immature system with a normal complement of cells whose spatial resolution is reduced and whose topographical map is disordered. This bears upon a number of competing theories for the psychophysical defect and affects future treatment therapies. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3514740-16$15.00/0.

A sightability model for mountain goats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, C.G.; Jenkins, K.J.; Chang, W.-Y.

2009-01-01

Unbiased estimates of mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) populations are key to meeting diverse harvest management and conservation objectives. We developed logistic regression models of factors influencing sightability of mountain goat groups during helicopter surveys throughout the Cascades and Olympic Ranges in western Washington during summers, 20042007. We conducted 205 trials of the ability of aerial survey crews to detect groups of mountain goats whose presence was known based on simultaneous direct observation from the ground (n 84), Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry (n 115), or both (n 6). Aerial survey crews detected 77 and 79 of all groups known to be present based on ground observers and GPS collars, respectively. The best models indicated that sightability of mountain goat groups was a function of the number of mountain goats in a group, presence of terrain obstruction, and extent of overstory vegetation. Aerial counts of mountain goats within groups did not differ greatly from known group sizes, indicating that under-counting bias within detected groups of mountain goats was small. We applied HorvitzThompson-like sightability adjustments to 1,139 groups of mountain goats observed in the Cascade and Olympic ranges, Washington, USA, from 2004 to 2007. Estimated mean sightability of individual animals was 85 but ranged 0.750.91 in areas with low and high sightability, respectively. Simulations of mountain goat surveys indicated that precision of population estimates adjusted for sightability biases increased with population size and number of replicate surveys, providing general guidance for the design of future surveys. Because survey conditions, group sizes, and habitat occupied by goats vary among surveys, we recommend using sightability correction methods to decrease bias in population estimates from aerial surveys of mountain goats.

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

Population genetic structure of eelgrass (Zostera marina) on the Korean coast: Current status and conservation implications for future management

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae Hwan; Kang, Ji Hyoun; Jang, Ji Eun; Choi, Sun Kyeong; Kim, Min Ji; Park, Sang Rul; Lee, Hyuk Je

2017-01-01

Seagrasses provide numerous ecosystem services for coastal and estuarine environments, such as nursery functions, erosion protection, pollution filtration, and carbon sequestration. Zostera marina (common name “eelgrass”) is one of the seagrass bed-forming species distributed widely in the northern hemisphere, including the Korean Peninsula. Recently, however, there has been a drastic decline in the population size of Z. marina worldwide, including Korea. We examined the current population genetic status of this species on the southern coast of Korea by estimating the levels of genetic diversity and genetic structure of 10 geographic populations using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The level of genetic diversity was found to be significantly lower for populations on Jeju Island [mean allelic richness (AR) = 1.92, clonal diversity (R) = 0.51], which is located approximately 155 km off the southernmost region of the Korean Peninsula, than for those in the South Sea (mean AR = 2.69, R = 0.82), which is on the southern coast of the mainland. South Korean eelgrass populations were substantially genetically divergent from one another (FST = 0.061–0.573), suggesting that limited contemporary gene flow has been taking place among populations. We also found weak but detectable temporal variation in genetic structure within a site over 10 years. In additional depth comparisons, statistically significant genetic differentiation was observed between shallow (or middle) and deep zones in two of three sites tested. Depleted genetic diversity, small effective population sizes (Ne) and limited connectivity for populations on Jeju Island indicate that these populations may be vulnerable to local extinction under changing environmental conditions, especially given that Jeju Island is one of the fastest warming regions around the world. Overall, our work will inform conservation and restoration efforts, including transplantation for eelgrass populations at the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula, for this ecologically important species. PMID:28323864

Population genetic structure of eelgrass (Zostera marina) on the Korean coast: Current status and conservation implications for future management.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Hwan; Kang, Ji Hyoun; Jang, Ji Eun; Choi, Sun Kyeong; Kim, Min Ji; Park, Sang Rul; Lee, Hyuk Je

2017-01-01

Seagrasses provide numerous ecosystem services for coastal and estuarine environments, such as nursery functions, erosion protection, pollution filtration, and carbon sequestration. Zostera marina (common name "eelgrass") is one of the seagrass bed-forming species distributed widely in the northern hemisphere, including the Korean Peninsula. Recently, however, there has been a drastic decline in the population size of Z. marina worldwide, including Korea. We examined the current population genetic status of this species on the southern coast of Korea by estimating the levels of genetic diversity and genetic structure of 10 geographic populations using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The level of genetic diversity was found to be significantly lower for populations on Jeju Island [mean allelic richness (AR) = 1.92, clonal diversity (R) = 0.51], which is located approximately 155 km off the southernmost region of the Korean Peninsula, than for those in the South Sea (mean AR = 2.69, R = 0.82), which is on the southern coast of the mainland. South Korean eelgrass populations were substantially genetically divergent from one another (FST = 0.061-0.573), suggesting that limited contemporary gene flow has been taking place among populations. We also found weak but detectable temporal variation in genetic structure within a site over 10 years. In additional depth comparisons, statistically significant genetic differentiation was observed between shallow (or middle) and deep zones in two of three sites tested. Depleted genetic diversity, small effective population sizes (Ne) and limited connectivity for populations on Jeju Island indicate that these populations may be vulnerable to local extinction under changing environmental conditions, especially given that Jeju Island is one of the fastest warming regions around the world. Overall, our work will inform conservation and restoration efforts, including transplantation for eelgrass populations at the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula, for this ecologically important species.

Monitoring the effective population size of a brown bear (Ursus arctos) population using new single-sample approaches.

PubMed

Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Jelenčič, Maja; Waits, Lisette; Kos, Ivan; Jerina, Klemen; Trontelj, Peter

2012-02-01

The effective population size (N(e) ) could be the ideal parameter for monitoring populations of conservation concern as it conveniently summarizes both the evolutionary potential of the population and its sensitivity to genetic stochasticity. However, tracing its change through time is difficult in natural populations. We applied four new methods for estimating N(e) from a single sample of genotypes to trace temporal change in N(e) for bears in the Northern Dinaric Mountains. We genotyped 510 bears using 20 microsatellite loci and determined their age. The samples were organized into cohorts with regard to the year when the animals were born and yearly samples with age categories for every year when they were alive. We used the Estimator by Parentage Assignment (EPA) to directly estimate both N(e) and generation interval for each yearly sample. For cohorts, we estimated the effective number of breeders (N(b) ) using linkage disequilibrium, sibship assignment and approximate Bayesian computation methods and extrapolated these estimates to N(e) using the generation interval. The N(e) estimate by EPA is 276 (183-350 95% CI), meeting the inbreeding-avoidance criterion of N(e) > 50 but short of the long-term minimum viable population goal of N(e) > 500. The results obtained by the other methods are highly consistent with this result, and all indicate a rapid increase in N(e) probably in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The new single-sample approaches to the estimation of N(e) provide efficient means for including N(e) in monitoring frameworks and will be of great importance for future management and conservation. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Li, Shanshan; Cao, Wei; Liu, De-Li; Qian, Quan; Ren, Hongyan; Ding, Fan; Williams, Gail; Huxley, Rachel; Zhang, Wenyi; Guo, Yuming

2018-04-20

There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China. We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s. Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions. During 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): −13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: −33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China. Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.

Rooms for genetic improvement in Indonesian Bali cattle population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyas, N.; Nugroho, T.; Prastowo, S.

2017-04-01

Bali cattle is a species of Bos javanicus d’Alton, a local cattle in Indonesia. They are loaded with potential as meat producer and well adapted to tropical climate and limited feed resources. Studies have been made to characterize the species. This paper presents a rough estimate of the opportunity to improve the Bali cattle population genetically. Our aim is to endorse that the Bali cattle could be both superior and efficient as tropical meat producer cattle. Results shows that Bali cattle population size is decreasing for the last years with a possibility to be accompanied by genetic quality decline. However, there is hope in improving Bali cattle genetically by a proper breeding strategy. This could also be an answer to the challenge of climate change which leads to global warming; where species adaptable to such environment is more beneficial in the future.

Development of microsatellite markers using next-generation sequencing for the columnar cactus Echinopsis chiloensis (Cactaceae).

PubMed

Ossa, Carmen G; Larridon, Isabel; Peralta, Gioconda; Asselman, Pieter; Pérez, Fernanda

2016-12-01

The aim of this study was to develop microsatellite markers as a tool to study population structure, genetic diversity and effective population size of Echinopsis chiloensis, an endemic cactus from arid and semiarid regions of Central Chile. We developed 12 polymorphic microsatellite markers for E. chiloensis using next-generation sequencing and tested them in 60 individuals from six sites, covering all the latitudinal range of this species. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 8, while the observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosity ranged from 0.0 to 0.80 and from 0.10 to 0.76, respectively. We also detected significant differences between sites, with F ST values ranging from 0.05 to 0.29. Microsatellite markers will enable us to estimate genetic diversity and population structure of E. chiloensis in future ecological and phylogeographic studies.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent divergence between the populations, which are likely cryptic species. Genome size variation is known to occur in other diatom genera; we hypothesize that genome duplication may be an active and important mechanism of genetic and physiological diversification and speciation in diatoms. PMID:20044934

PICALM gene rs3851179 polymorphism contributes to Alzheimer's disease in an Asian population.

PubMed

Liu, Guiyou; Zhang, Shuyan; Cai, Zhiyou; Ma, Guoda; Zhang, Liangcai; Jiang, Yongshuai; Feng, Rennan; Liao, Mingzhi; Chen, Zugen; Zhao, Bin; Li, Keshen

2013-06-01

PICALM gene rs3851179 polymorphism was reported to an Alzheimer's disease (AD) susceptibility locus in a Caucasian population. However, recent studies reported consistent and inconsistent results in an Asian population. Four studies indicated no association between rs3851179 and AD in a Chinese population and one study reported weak association in a Japanese population. We consider that the failure to replicate the significant association between rs3851179 and AD may be caused by at least two reasons. The first reason may be the genetic heterogeneity in AD among different populations, and the second may be the relatively small sample size compared with large-scale GWAS in Caucasian ancestry. In order to confirm this view, in this research, we first evaluated the genetic heterogeneity of rs3851179 polymorphism in Caucasian and Asian populations. We then investigated rs3851179 polymorphism in an Asian population by a pooled analysis method and a meta-analysis method. We did not observe significant genetic heterogeneity of rs3851179 in the Caucasian and Asian populations. Our results indicate that rs3851179 polymorphism is significantly associated with AD in the Asian population by both pooled analysis and meta-analysis methods. We believe that our findings will be very useful for future genetic studies in AD.

Assessing future changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides at a regional scale.

PubMed

Gariano, S L; Rianna, G; Petrucci, O; Guzzetti, F

2017-10-15

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. Among different impacts, this increase might result in a variation in the frequency and the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk. We propose a method for the regional-scale evaluation of future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in rainfall regimes. We exploit information on the occurrence of 603 rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the period 1981-2010, and daily rainfall data recorded in the same period in the region. Furthermore, we use high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In particular, we consider the mean variations between a 30-year future period (2036-2065) and the reference period 1981-2010 in three variables assumed as proxy for landslide activity: annual rainfall, seasonal cumulated rainfall, and annual maxima of daily rainfall. Based on reliable correlations between landslide occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence for all the municipalities of Calabria. A +45.7% and +21.2% average regional variation in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence is expected in the region for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. We also investigate the future variations in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on the population of Calabria. We find a +80.2% and +54.5% increase in the impact on the population for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The proposed method is quantitative and reproducible, thus it can be applied in similar regions, where adequate landslide and rainfall information is available. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E.; Smuda, Ellen

1993-01-01

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Genomic analyses of Northern snakehead (Channa argus) populations in North America

PubMed Central

Resh, Carlee A.; Galaska, Matthew P.

2018-01-01

Background The introduction of northern snakehead (Channa argus; Anabantiformes: Channidae) and their subsequent expansion is one of many problematic biological invasions in the United States. This harmful aquatic invasive species has become established in various parts of the eastern United States, including the Potomac River basin, and has recently become established in the Mississippi River basin in Arkansas. Effective management of C. argus and prevention of its further spread depends upon knowledge of current population structure in the United States. Methods Novel methods for invasive species using whole genomic scans provide unprecedented levels of data, which are able to investigate fine scale differences between and within populations of organisms. In this study, we utilize 2b-RAD genomic sequencing to recover 1,007 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci from genomic DNA extracted from 165 C. argus individuals: 147 individuals sampled along the East Coast of the United States and 18 individuals sampled throughout Arkansas. Results Analysis of those SNP loci help to resolve existing population structure and recover five genetically distinct populations of C. argus in the United States. Additionally, information from the SNP loci enable us to begin to calculate the long-term effective population size ranges of this harmful aquatic invasive species. We estimate long-term Ne to be 1,840,000–18,400,000 for the Upper Hudson River basin, 4,537,500–45,375,000 for the Lower Hudson River basin, 3,422,500–34,225,000 for the Potomac River basin, 2,715,000–7,150,000 for Philadelphia, and 2,580,000–25,800,000 for Arkansas populations. Discussion and Conclusions This work provides evidence for the presence of more genetic populations than previously estimated and estimates population size, showing the invasive potential of C. argus in the United States. The valuable information gained from this study will allow effective management of the existing populations to avoid expansion and possibly enable future eradication efforts. PMID:29637024

Genomic analyses of Northern snakehead (Channa argus) populations in North America.

PubMed

Resh, Carlee A; Galaska, Matthew P; Mahon, Andrew R

2018-01-01

The introduction of northern snakehead ( Channa argus ; Anabantiformes: Channidae) and their subsequent expansion is one of many problematic biological invasions in the United States. This harmful aquatic invasive species has become established in various parts of the eastern United States, including the Potomac River basin, and has recently become established in the Mississippi River basin in Arkansas. Effective management of C. argus and prevention of its further spread depends upon knowledge of current population structure in the United States. Novel methods for invasive species using whole genomic scans provide unprecedented levels of data, which are able to investigate fine scale differences between and within populations of organisms. In this study, we utilize 2b-RAD genomic sequencing to recover 1,007 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci from genomic DNA extracted from 165 C. argus individuals: 147 individuals sampled along the East Coast of the United States and 18 individuals sampled throughout Arkansas. Analysis of those SNP loci help to resolve existing population structure and recover five genetically distinct populations of C. argus in the United States. Additionally, information from the SNP loci enable us to begin to calculate the long-term effective population size ranges of this harmful aquatic invasive species. We estimate long-term N e to be 1,840,000-18,400,000 for the Upper Hudson River basin, 4,537,500-45,375,000 for the Lower Hudson River basin, 3,422,500-34,225,000 for the Potomac River basin, 2,715,000-7,150,000 for Philadelphia, and 2,580,000-25,800,000 for Arkansas populations. This work provides evidence for the presence of more genetic populations than previously estimated and estimates population size, showing the invasive potential of C. argus in the United States. The valuable information gained from this study will allow effective management of the existing populations to avoid expansion and possibly enable future eradication efforts.

Wolf population dynamics in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains are affected by recruitment and human-caused mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gude, J.A.; Mitchell, M.S.; Russell, R.E.; Sime, C.A.; Bangs, E.E.; Mech, L.D.; Ream, R.R.

2012-01-01

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008-2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society. Copyright ?? The Wildlife Society, 2011.

Microhabitat and biology of Sphaerium striatinum in a central New York stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dittman, Dawn E.; Johnson, James H.; Nack, Christopher C.

2018-01-01

In many lotic systems, drastic declines in freshwater bivalve populations, including fingernail clams (Sphaeriidae), have created concerns about biodiversity and future ecosystem services. We examined the local occurrence of the historically common fingernail clam, Sphaerium striatinum, in a central New York stream. We sampled the density of sphaeriids and measured the associated habitat variables (substrate, depth, water flow) to test within-stream multivariate benthic microhabitat association. Size distribution, density, and diel feeding periodicity were measured as focal aspects of fingernail clam biology and ecology. S. striatinum tended to be found in microhabitats that had harder substrates and faster flow. The Labrador Creek fingernail clam local population had positive indicators (size distribution, density). There was significant diel periodicity in feeding behavior. The clams fed most actively during the 0400–0800 h periods. This kind of behavioral periodicity can indicate a significant ecological interaction between predators and bivalve prey. Increased understanding of the behavioral ecology of small native freshwater bivalves in an unimpacted headwater stream is a fundamental building block for development of overall ecological conservation goals for freshwater bivalves and their lotic habitats.

Reviewing RAWP. Variations in admission rates: implications for equitable allocation of resources.

PubMed Central

Bevan, G; Ingram, R

1987-01-01

The review of the Resource Allocation Working Party (RAWP) formula by the National Health Service Management Board has considered the method used to account for cross boundary flows between health authorities. There is no consensus on how this should be done subregionally, as it raises the unresolved problem of the best method of estimating the size of catchment populations. Different methods produce different population sizes when the admission rates of individuals living in different districts vary. The National Health Service/Department of Health and Social Security acute services working group on performance indicators recently considered the assumptions made by different methods in terms of admission thresholds set by hospital clinicians. More complicated methods of assessing catchment areas seem to offer little advantage over the simplest method, but none of the methods answer the underlying questions of what truly determines admission rates and whether higher admission rates are better than lower ones. Empirical research into variations in admission rates and their relation to outcomes is important for determining the fair allocation of resources in future. PMID:3120865

Political experiences of changing the focus in elderly care in one municipality.

PubMed

Evertsson, Paula; Rosengren, Kristina

2015-11-01

To describe local politicians' experiences of an ongoing planning process for elderly care for the future in a medium-sized municipality in western Sweden. Elderly care is facing challenges because of an ageing population. The study comprised a total of eight semi-structured interviews with politicians. The interviews were analysed using manifest qualitative content analysis. One category (political consensus) and three subcategories (involvement generates security, trust in change management and confidence to create visions) were identified. Political consensus across elderly care organisations could establish a sense of security for old people, their relatives and the staff in particular. Continuous information and support from different managerial levels is one way of implementing changes within large organisations. However, further research is needed to describe how to develop future elderly care. An ageing population requires cooperation across provider boundaries to further develop high-quality elderly care services. Nursing leadership during a change process is crucial to implement political decisions in care organisations. Furthermore, active marketing of the health care profession for elderly care is needed as well as new knowledge regarding old people. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ventral–striatal responsiveness during reward anticipation in ADHD and its relation to trait impulsivity in the healthy population: A meta-analytic review of the fMRI literature

PubMed Central

Plichta, Michael M.; Scheres, Anouk

2013-01-01

A review of the existing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies on reward anticipation in patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is provided. Meta-analysis showed a significant medium effect size (Cohen’s d = 0.48–0.58) in terms of ventral–striatal (VS)-hyporesponsiveness in ADHD. Studies on VS-responsiveness and trait impulsivity in the healthy population demonstrate the opposite relationship, i.e. impulsivity-scores positively correlated with VS activation during reward processing. Against the background that ADHD may represent an extreme on a continuum of normal variability, the question arises as to how these contrasting findings can be integrated. We discuss three theoretical approaches, each of which integrates the opposing findings: (1) an inverted-u-shape model; (2) a (genetic) moderator model; and (3) the “unrelated model”. We conclude that at the present stage the number of existing studies in the healthy population as well as in ADHD groups is too small for a final answer. Therefore, our presented integrative approaches should be understood as an attempt to frame future research directions by generating testable hypotheses and giving practical suggestions for future studies. PMID:23928090

An in silico approach helped to identify the best experimental design, population, and outcome for future randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Bajard, Agathe; Chabaud, Sylvie; Cornu, Catherine; Castellan, Anne-Charlotte; Malik, Salma; Kurbatova, Polina; Volpert, Vitaly; Eymard, Nathalie; Kassai, Behrouz; Nony, Patrice

2016-01-01

The main objective of our work was to compare different randomized clinical trial (RCT) experimental designs in terms of power, accuracy of the estimation of treatment effect, and number of patients receiving active treatment using in silico simulations. A virtual population of patients was simulated and randomized in potential clinical trials. Treatment effect was modeled using a dose-effect relation for quantitative or qualitative outcomes. Different experimental designs were considered, and performances between designs were compared. One thousand clinical trials were simulated for each design based on an example of modeled disease. According to simulation results, the number of patients needed to reach 80% power was 50 for crossover, 60 for parallel or randomized withdrawal, 65 for drop the loser (DL), and 70 for early escape or play the winner (PW). For a given sample size, each design had its own advantage: low duration (parallel, early escape), high statistical power and precision (crossover), and higher number of patients receiving the active treatment (PW and DL). Our approach can help to identify the best experimental design, population, and outcome for future RCTs. This may be particularly useful for drug development in rare diseases, theragnostic approaches, or personalized medicine. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

PubMed

Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

2007-05-01

The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

Evaluation of the distribution and impacts of parasites, pathogens, and pesticides on honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations in East Africa.

PubMed

Muli, Elliud; Patch, Harland; Frazier, Maryann; Frazier, James; Torto, Baldwyn; Baumgarten, Tracey; Kilonzo, Joseph; Kimani, James Ng'ang'a; Mumoki, Fiona; Masiga, Daniel; Tumlinson, James; Grozinger, Christina

2014-01-01

In East Africa, honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide critical pollination services and income for small-holder farmers and rural families. While honey bee populations in North America and Europe are in decline, little is known about the status of honey bee populations in Africa. We initiated a nationwide survey encompassing 24 locations across Kenya in 2010 to evaluate the numbers and sizes of honey bee colonies, assess the presence of parasites (Varroa mites and Nosema microsporidia) and viruses, identify and quantify pesticide contaminants in hives, and assay for levels of hygienic behavior. Varroa mites were present throughout Kenya, except in the remote north. Levels of Varroa were positively correlated with elevation, suggesting that environmental factors may play a role in honey bee host-parasite interactions. Levels of Varroa were negatively correlated with levels of hygienic behavior: however, while Varroa infestation dramatically reduces honey bee colony survival in the US and Europe, in Kenya Varroa presence alone does not appear to impact colony size. Nosema apis was found at three sites along the coast and one interior site. Only a small number of pesticides at low concentrations were found. Of the seven common US/European honey bee viruses, only three were identified but, like Varroa, were absent from northern Kenya. The number of viruses present was positively correlated with Varroa levels, but was not correlated with colony size or hygienic behavior. Our results suggest that Varroa, the three viruses, and Nosema have been relatively recently introduced into Kenya, but these factors do not yet appear to be impacting Kenyan bee populations. Thus chemical control for Varroa and Nosema are not necessary for Kenyan bees at this time. This study provides baseline data for future analyses of the possible mechanisms underlying resistance to and the long-term impacts of these factors on African bee populations.

Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Stehn, Robert A.; Dau, Christian P.

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.

Evaluation of the Distribution and Impacts of Parasites, Pathogens, and Pesticides on Honey Bee (Apis mellifera) Populations in East Africa

PubMed Central

Frazier, James; Torto, Baldwyn; Baumgarten, Tracey; Kilonzo, Joseph; Kimani, James Ng'ang'a; Mumoki, Fiona; Masiga, Daniel; Tumlinson, James; Grozinger, Christina

2014-01-01

In East Africa, honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide critical pollination services and income for small-holder farmers and rural families. While honey bee populations in North America and Europe are in decline, little is known about the status of honey bee populations in Africa. We initiated a nationwide survey encompassing 24 locations across Kenya in 2010 to evaluate the numbers and sizes of honey bee colonies, assess the presence of parasites (Varroa mites and Nosema microsporidia) and viruses, identify and quantify pesticide contaminants in hives, and assay for levels of hygienic behavior. Varroa mites were present throughout Kenya, except in the remote north. Levels of Varroa were positively correlated with elevation, suggesting that environmental factors may play a role in honey bee host-parasite interactions. Levels of Varroa were negatively correlated with levels of hygienic behavior: however, while Varroa infestation dramatically reduces honey bee colony survival in the US and Europe, in Kenya Varroa presence alone does not appear to impact colony size. Nosema apis was found at three sites along the coast and one interior site. Only a small number of pesticides at low concentrations were found. Of the seven common US/European honey bee viruses, only three were identified but, like Varroa, were absent from northern Kenya. The number of viruses present was positively correlated with Varroa levels, but was not correlated with colony size or hygienic behavior. Our results suggest that Varroa, the three viruses, and Nosema have been relatively recently introduced into Kenya, but these factors do not yet appear to be impacting Kenyan bee populations. Thus chemical control for Varroa and Nosema are not necessary for Kenyan bees at this time. This study provides baseline data for future analyses of the possible mechanisms underlying resistance to and the long-term impacts of these factors on African bee populations. PMID:24740399

Predicting Receptive-Expressive Vocabulary Discrepancies in Preschool Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

McDaniel, Jena; Yoder, Paul; Woynaroski, Tiffany; Watson, Linda R

2018-05-15

Correlates of receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancies may provide insights into why language development in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) deviates from typical language development and ultimately improve intervention outcomes. We indexed receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancies of 65 initially preverbal children with ASD (20-48 months) to a comparison sample from the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories Wordbank (Frank, Braginsky, Yurovsky, & Marchman, 2017) to quantify typicality. We then tested whether attention toward a speaker and oral motor performance predict typicality of the discrepancy 8 months later. Attention toward a speaker correlated positively with receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancy typicality. Imitative and nonimitative oral motor performance were not significant predictors of vocabulary size discrepancy typicality. Secondary analyses indicated that midpoint receptive vocabulary size mediated the association between initial attention toward a speaker and end point receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancy typicality. Findings support the hypothesis that variation in attention toward a speaker might partially explain receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancy magnitude in children with ASD. Results are consistent with an input-processing deficit explanation of language impairment in this clinical population. Future studies should test whether attention toward a speaker is malleable and causally related to receptive-expressive discrepancies in children with ASD.

Status of scientific knowledge, recovery progress, and future research directions for the Gulf Sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi Vladykov, 1955

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sulak, Kenneth J.; Parauka, F; Slack, W. Todd; Ruth, T; Randall, Michael T.; Luke, K; Mette, M. F; Price, M. E

2016-01-01

The Gulf Sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi, is an anadromous species of Acipenseridae and native to North America. It currently inhabits and spawns in the upper reaches of seven natal rivers along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from the Suwannee River, Florida, to the Pearl River, Louisiana, during spring to autumn. Next to the Alligator Gar (Atractosteus spatula), the Gulf Sturgeon is currently the largest fish species occurring in U.S. Gulf Coast rivers, attaining a length of 2.35 m and weights exceeding 135 kg, but historically attained a substantially larger size. Historically, the spawning populations existed in additional rivers from which the species has been wholly or nearly extirpated, such as the Mobile and Ochlockonee rivers, and possibly the Rio Grande River. Most Gulf Sturgeon populations were decimated by unrestricted commercial fishing between 1895–1910. Subsequently most populations remained unrecovered or extirpated due to continued harvest until the 1970s–1980s, and the construction of dams blocking access to ancestral upriver spawning grounds. Late 20th Century harvest bans and net bans enacted by the several Gulf Coast states have stabilized several populations and enabled the Suwannee River population to rebound substantially and naturally. Hatchery supplementation has not been necessary in this regard to date. Sturgeon are resilient and adaptable fishes with a geological history of 150 million years. Research undertaken since the 1970s has addressed many aspects of Gulf Sturgeon life history, reproduction, migration, population biology, habitat requirements, and other aspects of species biology. However, many knowledge gaps remain, prominently including the life history of early developmental stages in the first year of life. Natural population recovery is evident for the Suwannee River population, but seems promising as well for at least four other populations. The Pascagoula and Pearl River populations face a challenging future due a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. These two populations, and perhaps the Escambia River population, are particularly vulnerable to periodic mass mortality due to major stochastic events including hurricanes, flooding, hypoxia, and toxic spills. The present manuscript provides a comprehensive synthesis of knowledge regarding the Gulf Sturgeon at the organismal and population levels, identifying knowledge gaps as priorities for future research. Topics not treated in the present synthesis include morphology, internal biology, physiology, and endocrinology. Topics only briefly treated include parasites and diseases, contaminants, and sturgeon aquaculture.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

Factors affecting first return to work following a compensable occupational back injury.

PubMed

Oleinick, A; Gluck, J V; Guire, K

1996-11-01

Occupational back injuries produced $27 billion in direct and indirect costs in 1988. Predictors of prolonged disability have generally been identified in selected clinical populations, but there have been few population-based studies using statewide registries from workers' compensation systems. This study uses a 1986 cohort of 8,628 Michigan workers with compensable back injuries followed to March 1, 1990. Cox proportional hazards analyses with nine categorical covariates identified factors predicting missed worktime for the first disability episode following the injury. The model distinguished factors affecting the acute (< or = 8 weeks) and chronic disability periods (> 8 weeks). The first disability episode following injury contains 69.6% of the missed worktime observed through follow-up. In the acute phase, which contributes 15.2% of first episode missed worktime, gender, age, number of dependents, industry (construction), occupation, and type of accident predict continued work disability. Marital status, weekly wage compensation rate, and establishment size do not. Beyond 8 weeks, age, establishment size and, to a lesser degree, wage compensation rate predict duration of work disability. Graphs show the predicted disability course for injured workers with specific covariate patterns. Future efforts to reduce missed worktime may require modifications in current clinical practice by patient age group and the development of new strategies to encourage small and medium-size employers to find ways to return their injured employees to work sooner. Recent federal statutes covering disabled workers will only partially correct the strong effect of employer establishment size.

An automated method to morph finite element whole-body human models with a wide range of stature and body shape for both men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Fanta, Abeselom; Reed, Matthew P; Neal, Mark; Wang, Jenne-Tai; Lin, Chin-Hsu; Hu, Jingwen

2017-07-26

Field data analyses have shown that small female, obese, and/or older occupants are at increased risks of death and serious injury in motor-vehicle crashes compared with mid-size young men. The current adult finite element (FE) human models represent occupants in the same three body sizes (large male, mid-size male, and small female) as those for the contemporary adult crash dummies. Further, the time needed to develop an FE human model using the traditional method is measured in months or even years. In the current study, an improved regional mesh morphing method based on landmark-based radial basis function (RBF) interpolation was developed to rapidly morph a mid-size male FE human model into different geometry targets. A total of 100 human models with a wide range of human attributes were generated. A pendulum chest impact condition was applied to each model as an initial assessment of the resulting variability in response. The morphed models demonstrated mesh quality similar to the baseline model. The peak impact forces and chest deflections in the chest pendulum impacts varied substantially with different models, supportive of consideration of population variation in evaluating the occupant injury risks. The method developed in this study will enable future safety design optimizations targeting at various vulnerable populations that cannot be considered with the current models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Nitrogen contamination of surficial aquifers - A growing legacy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Larry J.; Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Dubrovsky, Neil M.

2011-01-01

The virtual ubiquity of fertilizer-fed agriculture, increasing over several decades, has become necessary to support the global human population. Ironically, widespread use of nitrogen (N) has contaminated another vital resource: surficial fresh groundwater. Further, as nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas, anthropogenic manipulation of N budgets has ramifications that can extend far beyond national borders. To get a handle on the size of the problem, Puckett et al. present an approach to track historical contamination and thus analyze trends now and in the past with implications for the future.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China.

PubMed

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. PMID:28122050

Development of population structure and spatial distribution patterns of a restored forest during 17-year succession (1993-2010) in Pingshuo opencast mine spoil, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhongqiu; Wang, Lianhua; Bai, Zhongke; Pan, Ziguan; Wang, Yun

2015-07-01

Afforestation of native tree species is often recommended for ecological restoration in mining areas, but the understanding of the ecological processes of restored vegetation is quite limited. In order to provide insight of the ecological processes of restored vegetation, in this study, we investigate the development of the population structure and spatial distribution patterns of restored Robinia pseudoacacia (ROPS) and Pinus tabuliformis (PITA) mixed forests during the 17 years of the mine spoil period of the Pingshuo opencast mine, Shanxi Province, China. After a 17-year succession, apart from the two planted species, Ulmus pumila (ULPU), as an invasive species, settled in the plot along with a large number of small diameter at breast height (DBH) size. In total, there are 10,062 living individual plants, much more than that at the plantation (5105), and ROPS had become the dominant species with a section area with a breast height of 9.40 m(2) hm(-2) and a mean DBH of 6.72 cm, much higher than both PITA and ULPU. The DBH size classes of all the total species showed inverted J-shaped distributions, which may have been a result of the large number of small regenerated ULPU trees. The DBH size classes of both ROPS and PITA showed peak-type structures with individuals mainly gathering in the moderate DBH size class, indicating a relatively healthy DBH size class structure. Meanwhile, invasive ULPU were distributed in a clear L shape, concentrating on the small DBH size class, indicating a relatively low survival rate for adult trees. Both ROPS and PITA species survival in the plantation showed uniform and aggregated distribution at small scales and random with scales increasing. ULPU showed a strong aggregation at small scales as well as random with scales increasing. Both the population structure and spatial distribution indicated that ROPS dominates and will continue to dominate the community in the future succession, which should be continuously monitored.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Impacts of Low Salinity on Growth and Calcification in Baltic Sea Mytilus edulis x trossulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, T.; Melzner, F.

2016-02-01

The Baltic Sea is characterized by a steep salinity gradient (25 psu - <5 psu) which is predicted to increase in the future due to increased precipitation. This provides an excellent biological system to study the effects of salinity and inorganic carbon supply on animal physiology. Mytilus edulis x trossulus is adapted to the low saline Baltic Sea, at the cost of slow body growth and reduced shell thickness. The explanation for the small size of Baltic mytilids has been attributed to tradeoffs in energy partitioning due to high energetic costs associated with osmoregulation. However, salinity may effect calcification mechanisms and reduce calcification and thus, body size and growth. To understand the mechanistic effects salinity has on calcification, energy budgets were quantified in larvae, juveniles and adults from 3 populations of Baltic Sea Mytilus spp. at different salinities (6, 11 and 16 psu). Net CaCO3 production at varying salinities and bicarbonate concentrations was also measured. Larvae from low salinity adapted populations (6 psu) had a 3-fold higher respiration rate compared to higher salinity populations. This was also accompanied by a delay of 48 hours in early shell formation. Reductions in growth and increases in metabolism were largest between 11 psu and 6 psu indicating that the predicted desalination of the Baltic will go along with huge energetic costs for mussel populations, potentially leading to loss of reefs in the Eastern Baltic. To investigate the mechanisms behind increased metabolic cost and decreased allocation to growth, energy budgets are presently being constrained in our three populations using modulations in food supply and temperature.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Compensation for risks: host community benefits in siting locally unwanted facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Himmelberger, Jeffery J.; Ratick, Samuel J.; White, Allen L.

1991-09-01

This article analyzes the recent negotiations connected with siting 24 solid-waste landfills in Wisconsin. We examine the association between the type and amount of compensation paid to host communities by facility developers and the size of facilities, certain facility characteristics, the timing of negotiated agreements, the size of the host community, and the socioeconomic status of the host area. Our findings suggest that the level of compensation after adjusting for landfill capacity is positively associated with the percentage of total facility capacity dedicated to host community use, positively associated with the percentage of people of the host area who are in poverty, and larger for public facilities that accept municipal wastes. Other explanatory variables we examined, whose association with levels of compensation proved statistically insignificant, were facility size, facility status (new vs expansion), facility use (countyonly vs multicounty), timing of negotiation, host community size, and the host area education level, population density, and per capita income. We discuss the policy implications of our principal findings and future research questions in light of the persistent opposition surrounding the siting of solid-waste and other waste-management facilities.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

United Nations population estimates and projections with special reference to the Arab world.

PubMed

1980-06-01

The United Nations Population Division has been preparing world population estimates and projections by region since 1951, by country since 1958, and by sex and age for each country since 1968. The latest revision of the projections was prepared in 1978. The 2 basic methods of preparing population projections are mathematical and component, and the component methods are most widely used at present, by both national governments and the United Nations. Before projections are prepared, the base data must be evaluated and adjusted. In the UN projections, the assumptions imply that orderly progress will be made and that there will be no catastrophes such as famines and epidemics during the projection period. The projectins are prepared in 4 variants--"medium", "high," "low," and "constant." A major source of uncertainty in populations arises from the problem of estimating future fertility. Changes in fertility affect the age distribution and the total population size more than changes in mortality. At the UN, mortality assumptions are initially made in terms of life expectancy at birth and then in terms of age-sex patterns of probabilities of survival corresponding to different life expectancy levels at birth. Some of the results of the 1978 revision of the medium variant of the estimates and projections are shown in table form. The world total population of 4,033,000,000 in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199,000,000 by the year 2000. Among the major areas and regions of the world, the most rapid population growth for the future is projected for the Arab countries, Africa and Latin America. Of the 2 Arab regions, North Africa and Southwest Asia, Southwest Asia is expected to have the higher rate of growth because of assumed continued immigration. Within the Arab regions, there has been an increasing diversity in the rate of population growth. This divergence is expected to narrow with assumed decreased migration rates during the 1980s.

A systematic review of childhood maltreatment assessments in population-representative surveys since 1990.

PubMed

Hovdestad, Wendy; Campeau, Aimée; Potter, Dawn; Tonmyr, Lil

2015-01-01

Population-representative surveys that assess childhood maltreatment and health are a valuable resource to explore the implications of child maltreatment for population health. Systematic identification and evaluation of such surveys is needed to facilitate optimal use of their data and to inform future research. To inform researchers of the existence and nature of population-representative surveys relevant to understanding links between childhood maltreatment and health; to evaluate the assessment of childhood maltreatment in this body of work. We included surveys that: 1) were representative of the non-institutionalized population of any size nation or of any geopolitical region ≥ 10 million people; 2) included a broad age range (≥ 40 years); 3) measured health; 4) assessed childhood maltreatment retrospectively; and 5) were conducted since 1990. We used Internet and database searching (including CINAHL, Embase, ERIC, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Social Policy and Practice: January 1990 to March 2014), expert consultation, and other means to identify surveys and associated documentation. Translations of non-English survey content were verified by fluent readers of survey languages. We developed checklists to abstract and evaluate childhood maltreatment content. Fifty-four surveys from 39 countries met inclusion criteria. Sample sizes ranged from 1,287-51,945 and response rates from 15%-96%. Thirteen surveys assessed neglect, 15 emotional abuse; 18 exposure to family violence; 26 physical abuse; 48 sexual abuse. Fourteen surveys assessed more than three types; six of these were conducted since 2010. In nine surveys childhood maltreatment assessments were detailed (+10 items for at least one type of maltreatment). Seven surveys' assessments had known reliability and/or validity. Data from 54 surveys can be used to explore the population health relevance of child maltreatment. Assessment of childhood maltreatment is not comprehensive but there is evidence of recent improvement.

Consequences of a demographic bottleneck on genetic structure and variation in the Scandinavian brown bear.

PubMed

Xenikoudakis, G; Ersmark, E; Tison, J-L; Waits, L; Kindberg, J; Swenson, J E; Dalén, L

2015-07-01

The Scandinavian brown bear went through a major decline in population size approximately 100 years ago, due to intense hunting. After being protected, the population subsequently recovered and today numbers in the thousands. The genetic diversity in the contemporary population has been investigated in considerable detail, and it has been shown that the population consists of several subpopulations that display relatively high levels of genetic variation. However, previous studies have been unable to resolve the degree to which the demographic bottleneck impacted the contemporary genetic structure and diversity. In this study, we used mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA markers from pre- and postbottleneck Scandinavian brown bear samples to investigate the effect of the bottleneck. Simulation and multivariate analysis suggested the same genetic structure for the historical and modern samples, which are clustered into three subpopulations in southern, central and northern Scandinavia. However, the southern subpopulation appears to have gone through a marked change in allele frequencies. When comparing the mitochondrial DNA diversity in the whole population, we found a major decline in haplotype numbers across the bottleneck. However, the loss of autosomal genetic diversity was less pronounced, although a significant decline in allelic richness was observed in the southern subpopulation. Approximate Bayesian computations provided clear support for a decline in effective population size during the bottleneck, in both the southern and northern subpopulations. These results have implications for the future management of the Scandinavian brown bear because they indicate a recent loss in genetic diversity and also that the current genetic structure may have been caused by historical ecological processes rather than recent anthropogenic persecution. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050

PubMed Central

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-01-01

We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

How maternal investment varies with environmental factors and the age and physiological state of wild tsetse Glossina pallidipes and Glossina morsitans morsitans

PubMed Central

Muzari, M. Odwell; English, Sinead

2018-01-01

Theory suggests females should optimize resource allocation across reproductive bouts to maximize lifetime reproduction, balancing current and future reproductive efforts according to physiological state and projected survival and reproduction. Tests of these ideas focus on long-lived vertebrates: few measure age-related reproductive output in iteroparous invertebrates, or partition reserves between those allocated to offspring versus mothers. We investigated how maternal age, and environmental and physiological factors influence reproductive investment in wild tsetse, Glossina pallidipes Austen and G. morsitans morsitans Westwood. Tsetse provide a tractable system to measure reproductive allocation. Females exhibit high maternal investment, producing single, large offspring that rely exclusively on maternal reserves. We find that mothers in better physiological condition and experiencing cooler temperatures produce larger offspring. Pupal size increases significantly but weakly with age. In both species, females with less fat invest proportionately more in offspring. Post-partum fat decreases in flies with badly frayed wings: poor flight capability may limit their feeding efficiency, or they may sacrifice more reserves as a terminal investment. Our results support evidence that offspring size increases with maternal size, investment depends on the environment, and females with lower chances of future reproduction invest more into current offspring. We discuss the implications of maternal effects for predicting vector population responses to environmental change. PMID:29515882

Current and Near-Term Future Measurements of the Orbital Debris Environment at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stansbery, Gene; Liou, J.-C.; Mulrooney, M.; Horstman, M

2010-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office places great emphasis on obtaining and understanding direct measurements of the orbital debris environment. The Orbital Debris Program Office's environmental models are all based on these measurements. Because OD measurements must cover a very wide range of sizes and altitudes, one technique realistically cannot be used for all measurements. In general, radar measurements have been used for lower altitudes and optical measurements for higher altitude orbits. For very small debris, in situ measurements such as returned spacecraft surfaces are utilized. In addition to receiving information from large debris (> 5-10 cm diameter) from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, NASA conducts statistical measurements of the debris population for smaller sizes. NASA collects data from the Haystack and Goldstone radars for debris in low Earth orbit as small as 2- 4 mm diameter and from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope for debris near geosynchronous orbit altitude for sizes as small as 30-60 cm diameter. NASA is also currently examining the radiator panel of the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 which was exposed to space for 16 years and was recently returned to Earth during the STS- 125 Space Shuttle mission. This paper will give an overview of these on-going measurement programs at NASA as well as discuss progress and plans for new instruments and techniques in the near future.

Can mindfulness-based interventions influence cognitive functioning in older adults? A review and considerations for future research.

PubMed

Berk, Lotte; van Boxtel, Martin; van Os, Jim

2017-11-01

An increased need exists to examine factors that protect against age-related cognitive decline. There is preliminary evidence that meditation can improve cognitive function. However, most studies are cross-sectional and examine a wide variety of meditation techniques. This review focuses on the standard eight-week mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) such as mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT). We searched the PsychINFO, CINAHL, Web of Science, COCHRANE, and PubMed databases to identify original studies investigating the effects of MBI on cognition in older adults. Six reports were included in the review of which three were randomized controlled trials. Studies reported preliminary positive effects on memory, executive function and processing speed. However, most reports had a high risk of bias and sample sizes were small. The only study with low risk of bias, large sample size and active control group reported no significant findings. We conclude that eight-week MBI for older adults are feasible, but results on cognitive improvement are inconclusive due a limited number of studies, small sample sizes, and a high risk of bias. Rather than a narrow focus on cognitive training per se, future research may productively shift to investigate MBI as a tool to alleviate suffering in older adults, and to prevent cognitive problems in later life already in younger target populations.

Spatial distribution patterns and movements of Holothuria arguinensis in the Ria Formosa (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegenthaler, Andjin; Cánovas, Fernando; González-Wangüemert, Mercedes

2015-08-01

Holothurian populations are under pressure worldwide because of increasing demand for beche-de-mer, mainly for Asian consumption. Importations to this area from new temperate fishing grounds provide economic opportunities but also raise concerns regarding future over-exploitation. Studies on the habitat preferences and movements of sea cucumbers are important for the management of sea cucumber stocks and sizing of no-take zones, but information on the ecology and behavior of temperate sea cucumbers is scarce. This study describes the small-scale distribution and movement patterns of Holothuria arguinensis in the intertidal zone of the Ria Formosa national park (Portugal). Mark/recapture studies were performed to record their movements over time on different habitats (sand and seagrass). H. arguinensis preferred seagrass habitats and did not show a size or life stage-related spatial segregation. Its density was 563 ind. ha- 1 and mean movement speed was 10 m per day. Movement speed did not differ between habitats and the direction of movement was offshore during the day and shoreward during the night. Median home range size was 35 m2 and overlap among home ranges was 84%. H. arguinensis' high abundance, close association with seagrass and easy catchability in the intertidal zone, indicate the importance of including intertidal lagoons in future studies on temperate sea cucumber ecology since those systems might require different management strategies than fully submerged habitats.

Projections of white and black older adults without living kin in the United States, 2015 to 2060.

PubMed

Verdery, Ashton M; Margolis, Rachel

2017-10-17

Close kin provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness. Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups. Using demographic microsimulation and the United States Census Bureau's recent national projections of core demographic rates by race, we examine two definitions of kinlessness: those without a partner or living children, and those without a partner, children, siblings, or parents. Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships. Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans.

[Parent-child agreement in the health related quality of life (HRQOL) of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): a longitudinal study].

PubMed

Rajmil, L; Estrada, M D; Herdman, M; Serra-Sutton, V; Tebé, C; Izaguirre, J; Alda, J A; Alonso, J; Riley, A W; Forrest, C B; Starfield, B

2009-06-01

To assess parent-child agreement on changes over a short-term period of time in the HRQOL of children treated for ADHD over a short period of time, and to compare child and parent ratings of children with ADHD with general population norms. Prospective study in children 6-12 years old with ADHD. Children and parents completed the Spanish versions of the Child Health and Illness Profile-Child Edition (CHIP-CE) before and after 8 weeks of treatment. CHIP-PE scores at both visits were compared using paired t tests and effect sizes (ES), intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC), and scatter plots. Child and parent ratings were compared with CHIP-CE scores for a general population sample. Thirty-one children and parents were included in the analysis. The highest change between the first and the follow-up visit was on the Risk Avoidance domain both children and parents (effect size [ES]=0.24 and 0.40, respectively). The ICC ranged from 0.44 (Satisfaction) to 0.01 (Risk avoidance). Child self-ratings were close to general population values. All domains of the parent version presented standardized means below the reference values at the baseline visit and closer to the general population norm after treatment. This study found poor parent-child agreement and suggests that both ratings should be collected in future studies on the impact of ADHD and treatment effectiveness.

Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Cole, E.K.; Dobson, A.P.; Edwards, W.H.; Hamlin, K.L.; Luikart, G.; Middleton, A.D.; Scurlock, B.M.; White, P.J.

2010-01-01

While many wildlife species are threatened, some populations have recovered from previous overexploitation, and data linking these population increases with disease dynamics are limited. We present data suggesting that free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) are a maintenance host for Brucella abortus in new areas of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Brucellosis seroprevalence in free-ranging elk increased from 0-7% in 1991-1992 to 8-20% in 2006-2007 in four of six herd units around the GYE. These levels of brucellosis are comparable to some herd units where elk are artificially aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds. There are several possible mechanisms for this increase that we evaluated using statistical and population modeling approaches. Simulations of an age-structured population model suggest that the observed levels of seroprevalence are unlikely to be sustained by dispersal from supplemental feeding areas with relatively high seroprevalence or an older age structure. Increases in brucellosis seroprevalence and the total elk population size in areas with feeding grounds have not been statistically detectable. Meanwhile, the rate of seroprevalence increase outside the feeding grounds was related to the population size and density of each herd unit. Therefore, the data suggest that enhanced elk-to-elk transmission in free-ranging populations may be occurring due to larger winter elk aggregations. Elk populations inside and outside of the GYE that traditionally did not maintain brucellosis may now be at risk due to recent population increases. In particular, some neighboring populations of Montana elk were 5-9 times larger in 2007 than in the 1970s, with some aggregations comparable to the Wyoming feeding-ground populations. Addressing the unintended consequences of these increasing populations is complicated by limited hunter access to private lands, which places many ungulate populations out of administrative control. Agency-landowner hunting access partnerships and the protection of large predators are two management strategies that may be used to target high ungulate densities in private refuges and reduce the current and future burden of disease. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

Population structure in Japanese rice population

PubMed Central

Yamasaki, Masanori; Ideta, Osamu

2013-01-01

It is essential to elucidate genetic diversity and relationships among even related individuals and populations for plant breeding and genetic analysis. Since Japanese rice breeding has improved agronomic traits such as yield and eating quality, modern Japanese rice cultivars originated from narrow genetic resource and closely related. To resolve the population structure and genetic diversity in Japanese rice population, we used a total of 706 alleles detected by 134 simple sequence repeat markers in a total of 114 cultivars composed of 94 improved varieties and 20 landraces, which are representative and important for Japanese rice breeding. The landraces exhibit greater gene diversity than improved lines, suggesting that landraces can provide additional genetic diversity for future breeding. Model-based Bayesian clustering analysis revealed six subgroups and admixture situation in the cultivars, showing good agreement with pedigree information. This method could be superior to phylogenetic method in classifying a related population. The leading Japanese rice cultivar, Koshihikari is unique due to the specific genome constitution. We defined Japanese rice diverse sets that capture the maximum number of alleles for given sample sizes. These sets are useful for a variety of genetic application in Japanese rice cultivars. PMID:23641181

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

Sex differences in DSM-IV posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms expression using item response theory: A population-based study.

PubMed

Rivollier, Fabrice; Peyre, Hugo; Hoertel, Nicolas; Blanco, Carlos; Limosin, Frédéric; Delorme, Richard

2015-11-15

Whether there are systematic sex differences in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom expression remains debated. Using methods based on item response theory (IRT), we aimed at examining differences in the likelihood of reporting DSM-IV symptoms of PTSD between women and men, while stratifying for major trauma type and equating for PTSD severity. We compared data from women and men in a large nationally representative adult sample, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Analyses were conducted in the full population sample of individuals who met the DSM-IV criterion A (n=23,860) and in subsamples according to trauma types. The clinical presentation of the 17 DSM-IV PTSD symptoms in the general population did not substantially differ in women and men in the full population and by trauma type after equating for levels of PTSD severity. The only exception was the symptom "foreshortened future", which was more likely endorsed by men at equivalent levels of PTSD severity. The retrospective nature of the assessment of PTSD symptoms could have led to recall bias. Our sample size was too small to draw conclusions among individuals who experienced war-related traumas. Our findings suggest that the clinical presentation of PTSD does not differ substantially between women and men. We also provide additional psychometric support to the exclusion of the symptom "foreshortened future" from the diagnostic criteria for PTSD in the DSM-5. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

PubMed Central

Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

PubMed

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

A comparative test of adaptive hypotheses for sexual size dimorphism in lizards.

PubMed

Cox, Robert M; Skelly, Stephanie L; John-Alder, Henry B

2003-07-01

It is commonly argued that sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in lizards has evolved in response to two primary, nonexclusive processes: (1) sexual selection for large male size, which confers an advantage in intrasexual mate competition (intrasexual selection hypothesis), and (2) natural selection for large female size, which confers a fecundity advantage (fecundity advantage hypothesis). However, outside of several well-studied lizard genera, the empirical support for these hypotheses has not been examined with appropriate phylogenetic control. We conducted a comparative phylogenetic analysis to test these hypotheses using literature data from 497 lizard populations representing 302 species and 18 families. As predicted by the intrasexual selection hypothesis, male aggression and territoriality are correlated with SSD, but evolutionary shifts in these categorical variables each explain less than 2% of the inferred evolutionary change in SSD. We found stronger correlations between SSD and continuous estimates of intrasexual selection such as male to female home range ratio and female home range size. These results are consistent with the criticism that categorical variables may obscure much of the actual variation in intrasexual selection intensity needed to explain patterns in SSD. In accordance with the fecundity advantage hypothesis, SSD is correlated with clutch size, reproductive frequency, and reproductive mode (but not fecundity slope, reduced major axis estimator of fecundity slope, length of reproductive season, or latitude). However, evolutionary shifts in clutch size explain less than 8% of the associated change in SSD, which also varies significantly in the absence of evolutionary shifts in reproductive frequency and mode. A multiple regression model retained territoriality and clutch size as significant predictors of SSD, but only 16% of the variation in SSD is explained using these variables. Intrasexual selection for large male size and fecundity selection for large female size have undoubtedly helped to shape patterns of SSD across lizards, but the comparative data at present provide only weak support for these hypotheses as general explanations for SSD in this group. Future work would benefit from the consideration of alternatives to these traditional evolutionary hypotheses, and the elucidation of proximate mechanisms influencing growth and SSD within populations.

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change.

PubMed

Twomey, Marion; Brodte, Eva; Jacob, Ute; Brose, Ulrich; Crowe, Tasman P; Emmerson, Mark C

2012-11-05

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.

Blood platelet counts, morphology and morphometry in lions, Panthera leo.

PubMed

Du Plessis, L

2009-09-01

Due to logistical problems in obtaining sufficient blood samples from apparently healthy animals in the wild in order to establish normal haematological reference values, only limited information regarding the blood platelet count and morphology of free-living lions (Panthera leo) is available. This study provides information on platelet counts and describes their morphology with particular reference to size in two normal, healthy and free-ranging lion populations. Blood samples were collected from a total of 16 lions. Platelet counts, determined manually, ranged between 218 and 358 x 10(9)/l. Light microscopy showed mostly activated platelets of various sizes with prominent granules. At the ultrastructural level the platelets revealed typical mammalian platelet morphology. However, morphometric analysis revealed a significant difference (P < 0.001) in platelet size between the two groups of animals. Basic haematological information obtained in this study may be helpful in future comparative studies between animals of the same species as well as in other felids.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

Hepatitis C bio-behavioural surveys in people who inject drugs-a systematic review of sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions of respondent driven sampling.

PubMed

Buchanan, Ryan; Khakoo, Salim I; Coad, Jonathan; Grellier, Leonie; Parkes, Julie

2017-07-11

New, more effective and better-tolerated therapies for hepatitis C (HCV) have made the elimination of HCV a feasible objective. However, for this to be achieved, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of HCV epidemiology in people who inject drugs (PWID). Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) can provide prevalence estimates in hidden populations such as PWID. The aims of this systematic review are to identify published studies that use RDS in PWID to measure the prevalence of HCV, and compare each study against the STROBE-RDS checklist to assess their sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions underlying RDS. Searches were undertaken in accordance with PRISMA systematic review guidelines. Included studies were English language publications in peer-reviewed journals, which reported the use of RDS to recruit PWID to an HCV bio-behavioural survey. Data was extracted under three headings: (1) survey overview, (2) survey outcomes, and (3) reporting against selected STROBE-RDS criteria. Thirty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. They varied in scale (range 1-15 survey sites) and the sample sizes achieved (range 81-1000 per survey site) but were consistent in describing the use of standard RDS methods including: seeds, coupons and recruitment incentives. Twenty-seven studies (87%) either calculated or reported the intention to calculate population prevalence estimates for HCV and two used RDS data to calculate the total population size of PWID. Detailed operational and analytical procedures and reporting against selected criteria from the STROBE-RDS checklist varied between studies. There were widespread indications that sampling did not meet the assumptions underlying RDS, which led to two studies being unable to report an estimated HCV population prevalence in at least one survey location. RDS can be used to estimate a population prevalence of HCV in PWID and estimate the PWID population size. Accordingly, as a single instrument, it is a useful tool for guiding HCV elimination. However, future studies should report the operational conduct of each survey in accordance with the STROBE-RDS checklist to indicate sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions underlying the method. PROSPERO CRD42015019245.

The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

PubMed Central

Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

2015-01-01

Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

Spatial variation in egg size of a top predator: Interplay of body size and environmental factors?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louzao, Maite; Igual, José M.; Genovart, Meritxell; Forero, Manuela G.; Hobson, Keith A.; Oro, Daniel

2008-09-01

It is expected that nearby populations are constrained by the same ecological features shaping in turn similarity in their ecological traits. Here, we studied the spatio-temporal variability in egg size among local populations of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, a top marine predator endemic to the western Mediterranean region. Specifically we assessed whether this trait was influenced by maternal body size, as an indicator of a genetic component, and feeding ecology (through stable-carbon and nitrogen-isotope measurements), as an indicator of environmental factors. We found that egg size varied among local populations, an unexpected result at such a small spatial scale. Body size differences at the local population level only partially explained such differences. Blood isotope measurements also differed among local populations. Values of δ 15N suggested inter-population differences in trophic level, showing a similar general pattern with egg size, and suggesting a nutritional link between them whereby egg size was affected by differences in feeding resources and/or behaviour. Values of δ 13C suggested that local populations did not differ in foraging habits with respect to benthic- vs. pelagic-based food-webs. Egg size did not vary among years as did breeding performance, suggesting that a differential temporal window could affect both breeding parameters in relation to food availability. The absence of a relationship between breeding performance and egg size suggested that larger eggs might only confer an advantage during harsh conditions. Alternatively parental quality could greatly affect breeding performance. We showed that inter-population differences in egg size could be influenced by both body size and environmental factors.

Range Analysis and Terrain Preference of Adult Southern White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) in a South African Private Game Reserve: Insights into Carrying Capacity and Future Management.

PubMed

Thompson, S; Avent, T; Doughty, L S

2016-01-01

The Southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) is a threatened species, central to the tourism appeal of private game reserves in South Africa. Privately owned reserves in South Africa tend to be smaller than government run reserves such as Kruger National Park. Because of their relatively small size and the often heterogeneous nature of the landscape private game reserve managers benefit from detailed knowledge of white rhinoceros terrain selection preferences, which can be assessed from their ranging behaviours. We collected adult and sub-adult white rhinoceros distribution data over a 15 month period, calculating individual range size using kernel density estimation analysis within a GIS. From this, terrain selectivity was calculated using 50% and 95% kernels to extract terrain composition values. Jacob's correction of the Ivlev's selectivity index was subsequently applied to the terrain composition of each individual to identify trends in selectivity. Results reveal that adult males hold exclusive territories considerably smaller than those found in previous work conducted in "open" or large reserves. Similarly, results for the size of male versus female territories were also not in keeping with those from previous field studies, with males, rather than females, having the larger territory requirement. Terrain selection for both genders and age classes (adult and sub-adult) showed a strong preference for open grassland and avoidance of hill slope and riparian terrains. This research reveals white rhinoceros terrain selection preferences and how they influence range requirements in small, closed reserves. We conclude that this knowledge will be valuable in future white rhinoceros conservation management in small private game reserves, particularly in decisions surrounding removal of surplus individuals or augmentation of existing populations, calculation of reserve carrying capacity and future private reserve acquisition.

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Fujishima, Motonobu; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Maikusa, Norihide; Kuwano, Ryozo; Iwatsubo, Takeshi; Matsuda, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

Little is known about the sample sizes required for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-modifying treatments using atrophy measures from serial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the Japanese population. The primary objective of the present study was to estimate how large a sample size would be needed for future clinical trials for AD-modifying treatments in Japan using atrophy measures of the brain as a surrogate biomarker. Sample sizes were estimated from the rates of change of the whole brain and hippocampus by the k-means normalized boundary shift integral (KN-BSI) and cognitive measures using the data of 537 Japanese Alzheimer's Neuroimaging Initiative (J-ADNI) participants with a linear mixed-effects model. We also examined the potential use of ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy. The hippocampal atrophy rate required smaller sample sizes than cognitive measures of AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Inclusion of ApoE status reduced sample sizes for AD and MCI patients in the atrophy measures. These results show the potential use of longitudinal hippocampal atrophy measurement using automated image analysis as a progression biomarker and ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy in a clinical trial of AD-modifying treatment in Japanese people.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

Insect-plant-pathogen interactions as shaped by future climate: effects on biology, distribution, and implications for agriculture.

PubMed

Trębicki, Piotr; Dáder, Beatriz; Vassiliadis, Simone; Fereres, Alberto

2017-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the main anthropogenic gas which has drastically increased since the industrial revolution, and current concentrations are projected to double by the end of this century. As a consequence, elevated CO 2 is expected to alter the earths' climate, increase global temperatures and change weather patterns. This is likely to have both direct and indirect impacts on plants, insect pests, plant pathogens and their distribution, and is therefore problematic for the security of future food production. This review summarizes the latest findings and highlights current knowledge gaps regarding the influence of climate change on insect, plant and pathogen interactions with an emphasis on agriculture and food production. Direct effects of climate change, including increased CO 2 concentration, temperature, patterns of rainfall and severe weather events that impact insects (namely vectors of plant pathogens) are discussed. Elevated CO 2 and temperature, together with plant pathogen infection, can considerably change plant biochemistry and therefore plant defense responses. This can have substantial consequences on insect fecundity, feeding rates, survival, population size, and dispersal. Generally, changes in host plant quality due to elevated CO 2 (e.g., carbon to nitrogen ratios in C3 plants) negatively affect insect pests. However, compensatory feeding, increased population size and distribution have also been reported for some agricultural insect pests. This underlines the importance of additional research on more targeted, individual insect-plant scenarios at specific locations to fully understand the impact of a changing climate on insect-plant-pathogen interactions. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Testing the 'island rule' for a tenebrionid beetle (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Miquel

2002-05-01

Insular populations and their closest mainland counterparts commonly display body size differences that are considered to fit the island rule, a theoretical framework to explain both dwarfism and gigantism in isolated animal populations. The island rule is used to explain the pattern of change of body size at the inter-specific level. But the model implicitly makes also a prediction for the body size of isolated populations of a single species. It suggests that, for a hypothetical species covering a wide range of island sizes, there exists a specific island size where this species reaches the largest body size. Body size would be small (in relative terms) in the smallest islets of the species range. It would increase with island size, and reach a maximum at some specific island size. However, additional increases from such a specific island size would instead promote body size reduction, and small (in relative terms) body sizes would be found again on the largest islands. The biogeographical patterns predicted by the island rule have been described and analysed for vertebrates only (mainly mammals), but remain largely untested for insects or other invertebrates. I analyse here the pattern of body size variation between seven isolated insular populations of a flightless beetle, Asida planipennis (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). This is an endemic species of Mallorca, Menorca and a number of islands and islets in the Balearic archipelago (western Mediterranean). The study covers seven of the 15 known populations (i.e., there are only 15 islands or islets inhabited by the species). The populations studied fit the pattern advanced above and we could, therefore, extrapolate the island rule to a very different kind of organism. However, the small sample size of some of the populations invites some caution at this early stage.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Population genetics of the understory fishtail palm Chamaedorea ernesti-augusti in Belize: high genetic connectivity with local differentiation

PubMed Central

Cibrián-Jaramillo, Angélica; Bacon, Christine D; Garwood, Nancy C; Bateman, Richard M; Thomas, Meredith M; Russell, Steve; Bailey, C Donovan; Hahn, William J; Bridgewater, Samuel GM; DeSalle, Rob

2009-01-01

Background Developing a greater understanding of population genetic structure in lowland tropical plant species is highly relevant to our knowledge of increasingly fragmented forests and to the conservation of threatened species. Specific studies are particularly needed for taxa whose population dynamics are further impacted by human harvesting practices. One such case is the fishtail or xaté palm (Chamaedorea ernesti-augusti) of Central America, whose wild-collected leaves are becoming progressively more important to the global ornamental industry. We use microsatellite markers to describe the population genetics of this species in Belize and test the effects of climate change and deforestation on its recent and historical effective population size. Results We found high levels of inbreeding coupled with moderate or high allelic diversity within populations. Overall high gene flow was observed, with a north and south gradient and ongoing differentiation at smaller spatial scales. Immigration rates among populations were more difficult to discern, with minimal evidence for isolation by distance. We infer a tenfold reduction in effective population size ca. 10,000 years ago, but fail to detect changes attributable to Mayan or contemporary deforestation. Conclusion Populations of C. ernesti-augusti are genetically heterogeneous demes at a local spatial scale, but are widely connected at a regional level in Belize. We suggest that the inferred patterns in population genetic structure are the result of the colonization of this species into Belize following expansion of humid forests in combination with demographic and mating patterns. Within populations, we hypothesize that low aggregated population density over large areas, short distance pollen dispersal via thrips, low adult survival, and low fruiting combined with early flowering may contribute towards local inbreeding via genetic drift. Relatively high levels of regional connectivity are likely the result of animal-mediated long-distance seed dispersal. The greatest present threat to the species is the potential onset of inbreeding depression as the result of increased human harvesting activities. Future genetic studies in understory palms should focus on both fine-scale and landscape-level genetic structure. PMID:19818141

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

East Greenland and Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus): adaptive variation between two populations using skull morphometrics as an indicator of environmental and genetic differences.

PubMed

Pertoldi, Cino; Sonne, Christian; Wiig, Øystein; Baagøe, Hans J; Loeschcke, Volker; Bechshøft, Thea Østergaard

2012-06-01

A morphometric study was conducted on four skull traits of 37 male and 18 female adult East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) collected 1892-1968, and on 54 male and 44 female adult Barents Sea polar bears collected 1950-1969. The aim was to compare differences in size and shape of the bear skulls using a multivariate approach, characterizing the variation between the two populations using morphometric traits as an indicator of environmental and genetic differences. Mixture analysis testing for geographic differentiation within each population revealed three clusters for Barents Sea males and three clusters for Barents Sea females. East Greenland consisted of one female and one male cluster. A principal component analysis (PCA) conducted on the clusters defined by the mixture analysis, showed that East Greenland and Barents Sea polar bear populations overlapped to a large degree, especially with regards to females. Multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA) showed no significant differences in morphometric means between the two populations, but differences were detected between clusters from each respective geographic locality. To estimate the importance of genetics and environment in the morphometric differences between the bears, a PCA was performed on the covariance matrix derived from the skull measurements. Skull trait size (PC1) explained approx. 80% of the morphometric variation, whereas shape (PC2) defined approx. 15%, indicating some genetic differentiation. Hence, both environmental and genetic factors seem to have contributed to the observed skull differences between the two populations. Overall, results indicate that many Barents Sea polar bears are morphometrically similar to the East Greenland ones, suggesting an exchange of individuals between the two populations. Furthermore, a subpopulation structure in the Barents Sea population was also indicated from the present analyses, which should be considered with regards to future management decisions. © 2012 The Authors.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans—An Empirical Analysis of European Cities

PubMed Central

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future. PMID:26317420

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans-An Empirical Analysis of European Cities.

PubMed

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes; Olazabal, Marta; Heidrich, Oliver

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

Escaping to the summits: phylogeography and predicted range dynamics of Cerastium dinaricum, an endangered high mountain plant endemic to the western Balkan Peninsula.

PubMed

Kutnjak, Denis; Kuttner, Michael; Niketić, Marjan; Dullinger, Stefan; Schönswetter, Peter; Frajman, Božo

2014-09-01

The Balkans are a major European biodiversity hotspot, however, almost nothing is known about processes of intraspecific diversification of the region's high-altitude biota and their reaction to the predicted global warming. To fill this gap, genome size measurements, AFLP fingerprints, plastid and nuclear sequences were employed to explore the phylogeography of Cerastium dinaricum. Range size changes under future climatic conditions were predicted by niche-based modeling. Likely the most cold-adapted plant endemic to the Dinaric Mountains in the western Balkan Peninsula, the species has conservation priority in the European Union as its highly fragmented distribution range includes only few small populations. A deep phylogeographic split paralleled by divergent genome size separates the populations into two vicariant groups. Substructure is pronounced within the southeastern group, corresponding to the area's higher geographic complexity. Cerastium dinaricum likely responded to past climatic oscillations with altitudinal range shifts, which, coupled with high topographic complexity of the region and warmer climate in the Holocene, sculptured its present fragmented distribution. Field observations revealed that the species is rarer than previously assumed and, as shown by modeling, severely endangered by global warming as viable habitat was predicted to be reduced by more than 70% by the year 2080. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Karyotype and genome size of Iberochondrostoma almacai (Teleostei, Cyprinidae) and comparison with the sister-species I.lusitanicum

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

This study aimed to define the karyotype of the recently described Iberian endemic Iberochondrostoma almacai, to revisit the previously documented chromosome polymorphisms of its sister species I.lusitanicum using C-, Ag-/CMA3 and RE-banding, and to compare the two species genome sizes. A 2n = 50 karyotype (with the exception of a triploid I.lusitanicum specimen) and a corresponding haploid chromosome formula of 7M:15SM:3A (FN = 94) were found. Multiple NORs were observed in both species (in two submetacentric chromosome pairs, one of them clearly homologous) and a higher intra and interpopulational variability was evidenced in I.lusitanicum. Flow cytometry measurements of nuclear DNA content showed some significant differences in genome size both between and within species: the genome of I. almacai was smaller than that of I.lusitanicum (mean values 2.61 and 2.93 pg, respectively), which presented a clear interpopulational variability (mean values ranging from 2.72 to 3.00 pg). These data allowed the distinction of both taxa and confirmed the existence of two well differentiated groups within I. lusitanicum: one that includes the populations from the right bank of the Tejo and Samarra drainages, and another that reunites the southern populations. The peculiar differences between the two species, presently listed as “Critically Endangered”, reinforced the importance of this study for future conservation plans. PMID:21637679

75 FR 48815 - Medicaid Program and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP); Revisions to the Medicaid...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-11

... size may be reduced by the finite population correction factor. The finite population correction is a statistical formula utilized to determine sample size where the population is considered finite rather than... program may notify us and the annual sample size will be reduced by the finite population correction...

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Lowered Diversity and Increased Inbreeding Depression within Peripheral Populations of Wild Rice Oryza rufipogon.

PubMed

Gao, Li-Zhi; Gao, Cheng-Wen

2016-01-01

The distribution of genetic variability from the interior towards the periphery of a species' range is of great interest to evolutionary biologists. Although it has been long presumed that population genetic variation should decrease as a species' range is approached, results of empirical investigations still remain ambiguous. Knowledge regarding patterns of genetic variability as well as affected factors is particularly not conclusive in plants. To determine genetic divergence in peripheral populations of the wild rice Oryza rufipogon Griff. from China, genetic diversity and population structure were studied in five northern & northeastern peripheral and 16 central populations using six microsatellite loci. We found that populations resided at peripheries of the species possessed markedly decreased microsatellite diversity than those located in its center. Population size was observed to be positively correlated with microsatellite diversity. Moreover, there are significantly positive correlations between levels of microsatellite diversity and distances from the northern and northeastern periphery of this species. To investigate genetic structure and heterozygosity variation between generations of O. rufipogon, a total of 2382 progeny seeds from 186 maternal families were further assayed from three peripheral and central populations, respectively. Peripheral populations exhibited significantly lower levels of heterozygosities than central populations for both seed and maternal generations. In comparisons with maternal samples, significantly low observed heterozygosity (HO) and high heterozygote deficit within populations (FIS) values were detected in seed samples from both peripheral and central populations. Significantly lower observed heterozygosity (HO) and higher FIS values were further observed in peripheral populations than those in central populations for seed samples. The results indicate an excess of homozygotes and thus high inbreeding depression in peripheral populations. Our results together suggest that historical contraction of geographical range, demographic changes, and environmental conditions near the northern and northeastern margins of O. rufipogon favor inbreeding and possibly selfing, leading to the rapidly decreased effective population size. Genetic drift, reduced gene flow, and possible local selection, consequently lead to lowered gene diversity, accelerated genetic divergence and increased inbreeding depression found in peripheral populations of O. rufipogon. Given these characteristics observed, northern and northeastern peripheral populations deserve relatively different conservation strategies for either germplasm sampling of ex situ conservation or setting in situ reserves for the adaptation to possible environmental changes and the future germplasm utilization of wild rice.

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel

2016-01-01

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Estimation of future PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing climate: An application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique.

PubMed

Sun, Jian; Fu, Joshua S; Huang, Kan; Gao, Yang

2015-05-01

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12×12 km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry model under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentration in continental U.S. decreases nationwide, especially in the Eastern U.S. and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern U.S. but increase in the Western U.S. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) using the projected baseline incidence rate and population in 2050. For PM2.5, the entire continental U.S. presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the confidence interval of all causes mortality is much larger than that for specific causes, probably due to the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets and sample size. The confidence interval of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of the concentration-mortality response factor. The health impact of PM2.5 is more linearly proportional to the emission reductions than ozone. The reduction of anthropogenic PM2.5 precursor emissions is likely to lead to the decrease of PM2.5 concentrations and PM2.5 related mortality. However, the future ozone concentrations could increase due to increase of the greenhouse gas emissions of methane. Thus, to reduce the impact of ozone related mortality, anthropogenic emissions including criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (i.e. methane) need to be controlled.

Future Supply of Pediatric Surgeons: Analytical Study of the Current and Projected Supply of Pediatric Surgeons in the Context of a Rapidly Changing Process for Specialty and Subspecialty Training.

PubMed

Ricketts, Thomas C; Adamson, William T; Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Geiger, James D; Abdullah, Fizan; Klein, Michael D

2017-03-01

To describe the future supply and demand for pediatric surgeons using a physician supply model to determine what the future supply of pediatric surgeons will be over the next decade and a half and to compare that projected supply with potential indicators of demand and the growth of other subspecialties. Anticipating the supply of physicians and surgeons in the future has met with varying levels of success. However, there remains a need to anticipate supply given the rapid growth of specialty and subspecialty fellowships. This analysis is intended to support decision making on the size of future fellowships in pediatric surgery. The model used in the study is an adaptation of the FutureDocs physician supply and need tool developed to anticipate future supply and need for all physician specialties. Data from national inventories of physicians by specialty, age, sex, activity, and location are combined with data from residency and fellowship programs and accrediting bodies in an agent-based or microsimulation projection model that considers movement into and among specialties. Exits from practice and the geographic distribution of physician and the patient population are also included in the model. Three scenarios for the annual entry into pediatric surgery fellowships (28, 34, and 56) are modeled and their effects on supply through 2030 are presented. The FutureDocs model predicts a very rapid growth of the supply of surgeons who treat pediatric patients-including general pediatric surgeon and focused subspecialties. The supply of all pediatric surgeons will grow relatively rapidly through 2030 under current conditions. That growth is much faster than the rate of growth of the pediatric population. The volume of complex surgical cases will likely match this population growth rate meaning there will be many more surgeons trained for those procedures. The current entry rate into pediatric surgery fellowships (34 per year) will result in a slowing of growth after 2025, a rate of 56 will generate a continued growth through 2030 with a likely plateau after 2035. The rate of entry into pediatric surgery will continue to exceed population growth through 2030 under two likely scenarios. The very rapid anticipated growth in focused pediatric subspecialties will likely prove challenging to surgeons wishing to maintain their skills with complex cases as a larger and more diverse group of surgeons will also seek to care for many of the conditions and patients which the general pediatric surgeons and general surgeons now see. This means controlling the numbers of pediatric surgery fellowships in a way that recognizes problems with distribution, the volume of cases available to maintain proficiency, and the dynamics of retirement and shifts into other specialty practice.

Genetic variability in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClenaghan, Leroy R.; O'Shea, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

Tissue was obtained from 59 manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses salvaged from 20 counties in Florida. Allozyme phenotypes at 24 structural loci were determined by gel electrophoresis. Averages for the proportion of polymorphic loci and mean heterozygosity were 0.300 (range, 0.167-0.417) and 0.050 (range, 0.028-0.063), respectively. These estimates are equivalent to or higher than those generally reported for other species of marine mammals and do not support the hypothesis that body size and heterozygosity in mammals are related inversely. Among-region gene diversity accounted for only 4% of the total diversity. High rates of gene flow probably account for genetic homogeneity across regions. An F-statistic analysis revealed a general tendency toward excess homozygosity within regions. Management efforts to prevent future reductions in population size that would erode existing genic diversity should continue.

Measuring biomarkers in wastewater as a new source of epidemiological information: Current state and future perspectives.

PubMed

Gracia-Lor, Emma; Castiglioni, Sara; Bade, Richard; Been, Frederic; Castrignanò, Erika; Covaci, Adrian; González-Mariño, Iria; Hapeshi, Evroula; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara; Kinyua, Juliet; Lai, Foon Yin; Letzel, Thomas; Lopardo, Luigi; Meyer, Markus R; O'Brien, Jake; Ramin, Pedram; Rousis, Nikolaos I; Rydevik, Axel; Ryu, Yeonsuk; Santos, Miguel M; Senta, Ivan; Thomaidis, Nikolaos S; Veloutsou, Sofia; Yang, Zhugen; Zuccato, Ettore; Bijlsma, Lubertus

2017-02-01

The information obtained from the chemical analysis of specific human excretion products (biomarkers) in urban wastewater can be used to estimate the exposure or consumption of the population under investigation to a defined substance. A proper biomarker can provide relevant information about lifestyle habits, health and wellbeing, but its selection is not an easy task as it should fulfil several specific requirements in order to be successfully employed. This paper aims to summarize the current knowledge related to the most relevant biomarkers used so far. In addition, some potential wastewater biomarkers that could be used for future applications were evaluated. For this purpose, representative chemical classes have been chosen and grouped in four main categories: (i) those that provide estimates of lifestyle factors and substance use, (ii) those used to estimate the exposure to toxicants present in the environment and food, (iii) those that have the potential to provide information about public health and illness and (iv) those used to estimate the population size. To facilitate the evaluation of the eligibility of a compound as a biomarker, information, when available, on stability in urine and wastewater and pharmacokinetic data (i.e. metabolism and urinary excretion profile) has been reviewed. Finally, several needs and recommendations for future research are proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Founder representation and effective population size in old versus young breeds-genetic diversity of Finnish and Nordic Spitz.

PubMed

Kumpulainen, M; Anderson, H; Svevar, T; Kangasvuo, I; Donner, J; Pohjoismäki, J

2017-10-01

Finnish Spitz is 130-year-old breed and has been highly popular in Finland throughout its history. Nordic Spitz is very similar to Finnish Spitz by origin and use, but is a relatively recent breed with much smaller population size. To see how breed age and breeding history have influenced the current population, we performed comprehensive population genetic analysis using pedigree data of 28,119 Finnish and 9,009 Nordic Spitzes combined with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 135 Finnish and 110 Nordic Spitzes. We found that the Finnish Spitz has undergone repeated male bottlenecks resulting in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, reflected by 20 effective founders (f a ) and mean heterozygosity (Hz) of 0.313. The realized effective population size in the breed based on pedigree analysis (N¯ec) is 168, whereas the genetic effective population size (N eg ) computed the decay of linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ) is only 57 individuals. Nordic Spitz, although once been near extinction, has not been exposed to similar repeated bottlenecks than Finnish Spitz and had f a of 27 individuals. However, due to the smaller total population size, the breed has also smaller effective population size than Finnish Spitz (N¯ec = 98 and N eg  = 49). Interestingly, the r 2 data show that the effective population size has contracted dramatically since the establishment of the breed, emphasizing the role of breed standards as constrains for the breeding population. Despite the small population size, Nordic Spitz still maintains SNP heterozygosity levels similar to mixed breed dogs (mean Hz = 0.409). Our study demonstrates that although pedigree analyses cannot provide estimates of the present diversity within a breed, the effective population sizes inferred from them correlate with the genotyping results. The genetic relationships of the northern Spitz breeds and the benefits of the open breed registry are discussed. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

The Rocky Mountain population of the western Canada goose: its distribution, habitats, and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krohn, William B.; Bizeau, Elwood G.

1980-01-01

The western Canada goose (Branta canadensis moffitti) was divided into a Rocky Mountain population (RMP) and a Pacific population (PP) on the basis of band recovery patterns examined in this study and recovery data from other investigators. Habitat information obtained from nine cooperating wildlife agencies within the RMP's range provided a base line for evaluating future changes in nesting, molting, and wintering areas. The habitat inventory indicated that none of the seasonal habitats were currently limiting the size of the RMP. The RMP's range is divided into 15 reference areas and these are briefly described. Past studies of Canada geese in the Intermountain Region are reviewed. Topics covered in the discussion of breeding biology are nesting chronology, spring population composition, breeding age, clutch size, nesting success. artificial nesting structures, and gosling survival. Much of the mortality of Canada geese occurs before the birds are fledged. Man-made nesting structures reduce losses during incubation. but research is needed on the relations between brooding sites and gosling survival. Some western Canada geese, mainly prebreeders and unsuccessful nesters, make molt migrations to and from molting areas during and after the brood-rearing season. More than half of these molt-migrants are yearlings too young to nest; there are indications that even some successful nesters leave nesting areas to molt before the fledging of their offspring. Geese 2 years old or older may serve as guides to traditional molting areas for the first-time migrants (i.e., yearlings). Lack of disturbance appears to influence selection of specific molting areas within the nesting range of moffitti, whereas movements of molters out of the Intermountain Region may be related to the evolution of this subspecies. Apparently. molters of both the PP and RMP that leave the Region go to the Northwest Territories of Canada. Although the taxonomic status of moffitti as related to the giant Canada goose (B. c. maxima) is unclear. these two subspecies are closely related. as evidenced by similar molt migrations to subarctic Canada. similar blood serum proteins. and only dinal differences in body size ,!!nd color. Mean annual survival rates for birds banded on nesting areas averaged 53 ? 2% (X ? SE) for immatures and 64 ? 1 % for adults. Mean annual survival rates of adults captured on molting areas averaged 70 ? 1 %. Sport hunting accounts for more than 86% of the mortality of fledged Rocky Mountain geese. and hunting may limit the population's growth. Because the number of waterfowl hunters in the Rocky Mountain West is increasing, the continued expansion or future maintenance of the RMP may require more restrictive hunting regulations. Other management recommendations include the refinement and standardization of spring and winter aerial surveys, and more accurate age and sex determinations when geese are banded and color-marked.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Potential population-level effects of increased haulout-related mortality of Pacific walrus calves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Garlich-Miller, Joel L.; Quakenbush, Lori T.; Snyder, Jonathan A.

2013-01-01

Availability of summer sea ice has been decreasing in the Chukchi Sea during recent decades, and increasing numbers of Pacific walruses have begun using coastal haulouts in late summer during years when sea ice retreats beyond the continental shelf. Calves and yearlings are particularly susceptible to being crushed during disturbance events that cause the herd to panic and stampede at these large haulouts, but the potential population-level effects of this mortality are unknown. We used recent harvest data, along with previous assumptions about demographic parameters for this population, to estimate female population size and structure in 2009 and project these numbers forward using a range of assumptions about future harvests and haulout-related mortality that might result from increased use of coastal haulouts during late summer. We found that if demographic parameters were held constant, the levels of harvest that occurred during 1990–2008 would have allowed the population to grow during that period. Our projections indicate, however, that an increase in haulout-related mortality affecting only calves has a greater effect on the population than an equivalent increase in harvest-related mortality distributed among all age classes. Therefore, disturbance-related mortality of calves at coastal haulouts may have relatively important population consequences.

Genetic Diversity in the Modern Horse Illustrated from Genome-Wide SNP Data

PubMed Central

Petersen, Jessica L.; Mickelson, James R.; Cothran, E. Gus; Andersson, Lisa S.; Axelsson, Jeanette; Bailey, Ernie; Bannasch, Danika; Binns, Matthew M.; Borges, Alexandre S.; Brama, Pieter; da Câmara Machado, Artur; Distl, Ottmar; Felicetti, Michela; Fox-Clipsham, Laura; Graves, Kathryn T.; Guérin, Gérard; Haase, Bianca; Hasegawa, Telhisa; Hemmann, Karin; Hill, Emmeline W.; Leeb, Tosso; Lindgren, Gabriella; Lohi, Hannes; Lopes, Maria Susana; McGivney, Beatrice A.; Mikko, Sofia; Orr, Nicholas; Penedo, M. Cecilia T; Piercy, Richard J.; Raekallio, Marja; Rieder, Stefan; Røed, Knut H.; Silvestrelli, Maurizio; Swinburne, June; Tozaki, Teruaki; Vaudin, Mark; M. Wade, Claire; McCue, Molly E.

2013-01-01

Horses were domesticated from the Eurasian steppes 5,000–6,000 years ago. Since then, the use of horses for transportation, warfare, and agriculture, as well as selection for desired traits and fitness, has resulted in diverse populations distributed across the world, many of which have become or are in the process of becoming formally organized into closed, breeding populations (breeds). This report describes the use of a genome-wide set of autosomal SNPs and 814 horses from 36 breeds to provide the first detailed description of equine breed diversity. FST calculations, parsimony, and distance analysis demonstrated relationships among the breeds that largely reflect geographic origins and known breed histories. Low levels of population divergence were observed between breeds that are relatively early on in the process of breed development, and between those with high levels of within-breed diversity, whether due to large population size, ongoing outcrossing, or large within-breed phenotypic diversity. Populations with low within-breed diversity included those which have experienced population bottlenecks, have been under intense selective pressure, or are closed populations with long breed histories. These results provide new insights into the relationships among and the diversity within breeds of horses. In addition these results will facilitate future genome-wide association studies and investigations into genomic targets of selection. PMID:23383025

Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

PubMed Central

Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

2012-01-01

Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

Pedigree and herd characterization of a donkey breed vulnerable to extinction.

PubMed

Quaresma, M; Martins, A M F; Rodrigues, J B; Colaço, J; Payan-Carreira, R

2014-03-01

Most donkey and local horse breeds are vulnerable to extinction as mechanization of agriculture progress throughout the world. The present study analyzed the pedigree and herd records of the donkey Asinina de Miranda breed (RAM), identifying genealogical and human factors that may affect the breed genetic diversity in the future and suggesting suitable strategies to breed preservation, early on the conservation program. The breeding rate was very low, with a ratio of foaling/live animals of 0.23 (178/760). The estimated number of founders and ancestors contributing to the reference population was 128 and 121. The number of founder herds in the reference population was 64, with an effective number of founder herds for the reference population of 7.6. The mean age of herd owners was 65.50 ± 0.884 years, with a negative association among the herd size and owner's age (P<0.001). In contrast, the size of the herd and the ownership of a male were both positively associated (P<0.001) with the herd number of in-born foals. Both the owners' age and the herd location (RAM home region v. dispersal region) were negatively associated with the foaling number (P<0.001). The main identified risk factors were: low breeding rates; low number of males and their unequal contribution to the genetic pool; unequal contribution of the herds to genetic pool; and advanced age of herd owners.

Density-Dependent Growth in Invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans)

PubMed Central

Benkwitt, Cassandra E.

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion. PMID:23825604

Density-dependent growth in invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans).

PubMed

Benkwitt, Cassandra E

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion.

A Mountain or a Plateau? Hematological Traits Vary Nonlinearly with Altitude in a Highland Lizard.

PubMed

González-Morales, Juan Carlos; Beamonte-Barrientos, Rene; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Guevara-Fiore, Palestina; Quintana, Erendira; Fajardo, Victor

High-altitude organisms exhibit hematological adaptations to augment blood transport of oxygen. One common mechanism is through increased values of blood traits such as erythrocyte count, hematocrit, and hemoglobin concentration. However, a positive relationship between altitude and blood traits is not observed in all high-altitude systems. To understand how organisms adapt to high altitudes, it is important to document physiological patterns related to hypoxia gradients from a greater variety of species. Here, we present an extensive hematological description for three populations of Sceloporus grammicus living at 2,500, 3,400, and 4,300 m. We did not find a linear increase with altitude for any of the blood traits we measured. Instead, we found nonlinear relationships between altitude and the blood traits erythrocyte number, erythrocyte size, hematocrit, and hemoglobin concentration. Erythrocyte number and hematocrit leveled off as altitude increased, whereas hemoglobin concentration and erythrocyte size were highest at intermediate altitude. Additionally, lizards from our three study populations are similar in blood pH, serum electrolytes, glucose, and lactate. Given that the highest-altitude population did not show the highest levels of the variables we measured, we suggest these lizards may be using different adaptations to cope with hypoxia than lizards at low or intermediate altitudes. We discuss future directions that research could take to investigate such potential adaptations.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Associations between polymorphisms of HLA-B gene and postmenopausal osteoporosis in Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Li, S-M; Zhou, D-X; Liu, M-Y

2014-08-01

Osteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease, which is more prevalent in postmenopausal women. Osteoporosis likely develops beginning with genetic risk. This study explored the relationships between polymorphisms of HLA-B gene and postmenopausal osteoporosis in a Chinese Han population. Polymerase chain reaction sequence-based typing (PCR-SBT) method was used for DNA typing at HLA-B locus in 70 patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis and 73 healthy controls in female Han population of Shaanxi Province, situated in north-western China. We found that 40 HLA-B alleles in postmenopausal osteoporosis patients and control subjects, respectively. Furthermore, the frequency of HLA-B* 3501 allele was significantly higher in postmenopausal osteoporosis patients than in the control group (P = 0.033), and the relative risk was 7.632 (95% CI: 0.927-62.850). Our results suggest that HLA-B* 3501 was likely an important risk factor for postmenopausal osteoporosis. As different populations have different HLA polymorphisms, further investigation of the relationship of various HLA genes and osteoporosis with larger sample size is still necessary in the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weeds, as ancillary hosts, pose disproportionate risk for virulent pathogen transfer to crops.

PubMed

Linde, Celeste C; Smith, Leon M; Peakall, Rod

2016-05-12

The outcome of the arms race between hosts and pathogens depends heavily on the interactions between their genetic diversity, population size and transmission ability. Theory predicts that genetically diverse hosts will select for higher virulence and more diverse pathogens than hosts with low genetic diversity. Cultivated hosts typically have lower genetic diversity and thus small effective population sizes, but can potentially harbour large pathogen population sizes. On the other hand, hosts, such as weeds, which are genetically more diverse and thus have larger effective population sizes, usually harbour smaller pathogen population sizes. Large pathogen population sizes may lead to more opportunities for mutation and hence more diverse pathogens. Here we test the predictions that pathogen neutral genetic diversity will increase with large pathogen population sizes and host diversity, whereas diversity under selection will increase with host diversity. We assessed and compared the diversity of a fungal pathogen, Rhynchosporium commune, on weedy barley grass (which have a large effective population size) and cultivated barley (low genetic diversity) using microsatellites, effector locus nip1 diversity and pathogen aggressiveness in order to assess the importance of weeds in the evolution of the neutral and selected diversity of pathogens. The findings indicated that the large barley acreage and low host diversity maintains higher pathogen neutral genetic diversity and lower linkage disequilibrium, while the weed maintains more pathotypes and higher virulence diversity at nip1. Strong evidence for more pathogen migration from barley grass to barley suggests transmission of virulence from barley grass to barley is common. Pathogen census population size is a better predictor for neutral genetic diversity than host diversity. Despite maintaining a smaller pathogen census population size, barley grass acts as an important ancillary host to R. commune, harbouring highly virulent pathogen types capable of transmission to barley. Management of disease on crops must therefore include management of weedy ancillary hosts, which may harbour disproportionate supplies of virulent pathogen strains.

Development of an online database of typical food portion sizes in Irish population groups.

PubMed

Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert

2013-01-01

The Irish Food Portion Sizes Database (available at www.iuna.net) describes typical portion weights for an extensive range of foods and beverages for Irish children, adolescents and adults. The present paper describes the methodologies used to develop the database and some key characteristics of the portion weight data contained therein. The data are derived from three large, cross-sectional food consumption surveys carried out in Ireland over the last decade: the National Children's Food Survey (2003-2004), National Teens' Food Survey (2005-2006) and National Adult Nutrition Survey (2008-2010). Median, 25th and 75th percentile portion weights are described for a total of 545 items across the three survey groups, split by age group or sex as appropriate. The typical (median) portion weights reported for adolescents and adults are similar for many foods, while those reported for children are notably smaller. Adolescent and adult males generally consume larger portions than their female counterparts, though similar portion weights may be consumed where foods are packaged in unit amounts (for example, pots of yoghurt). The inclusion of energy under-reporters makes little difference to the estimation of typical portion weights in adults. The data have wide-ranging applications in dietary assessment and food labelling, and will serve as a useful reference against which to compare future portion size data from the Irish population. The present paper provides a useful context for researchers and others wishing to use the Irish Food Portion Sizes Database, and may guide researchers in other countries in establishing similar databases of their own.

Urban Earthquakes - Reducing Building Collapse Through Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilham, R.

2004-12-01

Fatalities from earthquakes rose from 6000k to 9000k/year in the past decade, yet the ratio of numbers of earthquake fatalities to instantaneous population continues to fall. Since 1950 the ratio declined worldwide by a factor of three, but in some countries the ratio has changed little. E.g in Iran, 1 in 3000 people can expect to die in an earthquake, a percentage that has not changed significantly since 1890. Fatalities from earthquakes remain high in those countries that have traditionally suffered from frequent large earthquakes (Turkey, Iran, Japan, and China), suggesting that the exposure time of recently increased urban populations in other countries may be too short to have interacted with earthquakes with long recurrence intervals. This in turn, suggests that disasters of unprecendented size will occur (more than 1 million fatalities) when future large earthquakes occur close to megacities. However, population growth is most rapid in cities of less than 1 million people in the developing nations, where the financial ability to implement earthquake resistant construction methods is limited. In that structural collapse can often be traced to ignorance about the forces at work in an earthquake, the future collapse of buildings presently under construction could be much reduced were contractors, builders and occupants educated in the principles of earthquake resistant assembly. Education of builders who are tempted to cut assembly costs is likely to be more cost effective than material aid.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape.

PubMed

Ramalho, Cristina E; Ottewell, Kym M; Chambers, Brian K; Yates, Colin J; Wilson, Barbara A; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape

PubMed Central

Ottewell, Kym M.; Chambers, Brian K.; Yates, Colin J.; Wilson, Barbara A.; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare. PMID:29444118

Extinction-effective population index: incorporating life-history variations in population viability analysis.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami

2007-09-01

Viability status of populations is a commonly used measure for decision-making in the management of populations. One of the challenges faced by managers is the need to consistently allocate management effort among populations. This allocation should in part be based on comparison of extinction risks among populations. Unfortunately, common criteria that use minimum viable population size or count-based population viability analysis (PVA) often do not provide results that are comparable among populations, primarily because they lack consistency in determining population size measures and threshold levels of population size (e.g., minimum viable population size and quasi-extinction threshold). Here I introduce a new index called the "extinction-effective population index," which accounts for differential effects of demographic stochasticity among organisms with different life-history strategies and among individuals in different life stages. This index is expected to become a new way of determining minimum viable population size criteria and also complement the count-based PVA. The index accounts for the difference in life-history strategies of organisms, which are modeled using matrix population models. The extinction-effective population index, sensitivity, and elasticity are demonstrated in three species of Pacific salmonids. The interpretation of the index is also provided by comparing them with existing demographic indices. Finally, a measure of life-history-specific effect of demographic stochasticity is derived.

How we value the future affects our desire to learn.

PubMed

Moore, Alana L; Hauser, Cindy E; McCarthy, Michael A

2008-06-01

Active adaptive management is increasingly advocated in natural resource management and conservation biology. Active adaptive management looks at the benefit of employing strategies that may be suboptimal in the near term but which may provide additional information that will facilitate better management in future years. However, when comparing management policies it is traditional to weigh future rewards geometrically (at a constant discount rate) which results in far-distant rewards making a negligible contribution to the total benefit. Under such a discounting scheme active adaptive management is rarely of much benefit, especially if learning is slow. A growing number of authors advocate the use of alternative forms of discounting when evaluating optimal strategies for long-term decisions which have a social component. We consider a theoretical harvested population for which the recovery rate from an unharvestably small population size is unknown and look at the effects on the benefit of experimental management when three different forms of discounting are employed. Under geometric discounting, with a discount rate of 5% per annum, managing to learn actively had little benefit. This study demonstrates that discount functions which weigh future rewards more heavily result in more conservative harvesting strategies, but do not necessarily encourage active learning. Furthermore, the optimal management strategy is not equivalent to employing geometric discounting at a lower rate. If alternative discount functions are made mandatory in calculating optimal management strategies for environmental management then this will affect the structure of optimal management regimes and change when and how much we are willing to invest in learning.

Differences in the effective population sizes of males and females do not require differences in their distribution of offspring number.

PubMed

Mendez, Fernando L

2017-04-01

Difference in male and female effective population sizes has, at times, been attributed to both sexes having unequal variance in their number of offspring. Such difference is paralleled by the relative effective sizes of autosomes, sex chromosomes, and mitochondrial DNA. I develop a simple framework to calculate the inbreeding effective population sizes for loci with different modes of inheritance. In this framework, I separate the effects due to mating strategy and those due to genetic transmission. I then show that, in addition to differences in the variance in offspring number, skew in the male/female effective sizes can also be caused by family composition. This approach can be used to illustrate the effect of induced behaviors on the relative male and female effective population sizes. In particular, I show the impact of the one-child policy formerly implemented in the People's Republic of China on the relative male and female effective population sizes. Furthermore, I argue that, under some strong constraints on family structure, the concepts of male and female effective population sizes are invalid. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A worldwide survey of genome sequence variation provides insight into the evolutionary history of the honeybee Apis mellifera.

PubMed

Wallberg, Andreas; Han, Fan; Wellhagen, Gustaf; Dahle, Bjørn; Kawata, Masakado; Haddad, Nizar; Simões, Zilá Luz Paulino; Allsopp, Mike H; Kandemir, Irfan; De la Rúa, Pilar; Pirk, Christian W; Webster, Matthew T

2014-10-01

The honeybee Apis mellifera has major ecological and economic importance. We analyze patterns of genetic variation at 8.3 million SNPs, identified by sequencing 140 honeybee genomes from a worldwide sample of 14 populations at a combined total depth of 634×. These data provide insight into the evolutionary history and genetic basis of local adaptation in this species. We find evidence that population sizes have fluctuated greatly, mirroring historical fluctuations in climate, although contemporary populations have high genetic diversity, indicating the absence of domestication bottlenecks. Levels of genetic variation are strongly shaped by natural selection and are highly correlated with patterns of gene expression and DNA methylation. We identify genomic signatures of local adaptation, which are enriched in genes expressed in workers and in immune system- and sperm motility-related genes that might underlie geographic variation in reproduction, dispersal and disease resistance. This study provides a framework for future investigations into responses to pathogens and climate change in honeybees.

Short Communication Mendelian inheritance, linkage, and genotypic disequilibrium in microsatellite loci of Hymenaea stigonocarpa Mart. ex Hayne (Fabaceae-Caesalpinioideae).

PubMed

Moraes, M A; Kubota, T Y K; Silva, E C B; Silva, A M; Cambuim, J; Moraes, M L T; Furlani Junior, E; Sebbenn, A M

2016-07-29

Hymenaea stigonocarpa is a deciduous and monoecious Neotropical tree species pollinated by bats. Due to overexploitation and habitat destruction, the population size has drastically diminished in nature. No previous study has investigated Mendelian inheritance, linkage, and genotypic disequilibrium in the available microsatellite markers in this species. So, our aim was to estimate these parameters using six microsatellite loci in a sample of 470 adults and 219 juveniles from two populations of H. stigonocarpa. In addition, 30 seeds per tree from 35 seed-trees were collected. Each seed was kept record of the seed-trees and fruit origin. Based on the six microsatellite loci, we found that only 10.6% of the cases showed significant deviations from Mendelian segregation and 15.3% showed linkage. We detected no evidence of genotypic disequilibrium between the loci in the adult trees or juveniles. Thus, our results suggest that these loci can be used with great accuracy in future genetic analyses of H. stigonocarpa populations.

A meta-analysis of 25 years of mood-creativity research: hedonic tone, activation, or regulatory focus?

PubMed

Baas, Matthijs; De Dreu, Carsten K W; Nijstad, Bernard A

2008-11-01

This meta-analysis synthesized 102 effect sizes reflecting the relation between specific moods and creativity. Effect sizes overall revealed that positive moods produce more creativity than mood-neutral controls (r= .15), but no significant differences between negative moods and mood-neutral controls (r= -.03) or between positive and negative moods (r= .04) were observed. Creativity is enhanced most by positive mood states that are activating and associated with an approach motivation and promotion focus (e.g., happiness), rather than those that are deactivating and associated with an avoidance motivation and prevention focus (e.g., relaxed). Negative, deactivating moods with an approach motivation and a promotion focus (e.g., sadness) were not associated with creativity, but negative, activating moods with an avoidance motivation and a prevention focus (fear, anxiety) were associated with lower creativity, especially when assessed as cognitive flexibility. With a few exceptions, these results generalized across experimental and correlational designs, populations (students vs. general adult population), and facet of creativity (e.g., fluency, flexibility, originality, eureka/insight). The authors discuss theoretical implications and highlight avenues for future research on specific moods, creativity, and their relationships.

Detecting concerted demographic response across community assemblages using hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Chan, Yvonne L; Schanzenbach, David; Hickerson, Michael J

2014-09-01

Methods that integrate population-level sampling from multiple taxa into a single community-level analysis are an essential addition to the comparative phylogeographic toolkit. Detecting how species within communities have demographically tracked each other in space and time is important for understanding the effects of future climate and landscape changes and the resulting acceleration of extinctions, biological invasions, and potential surges in adaptive evolution. Here, we present a statistical framework for such an analysis based on hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) with the goal of detecting concerted demographic histories across an ecological assemblage. Our method combines population genetic data sets from multiple taxa into a single analysis to estimate: 1) the proportion of a community sample that demographically expanded in a temporally clustered pulse and 2) when the pulse occurred. To validate the accuracy and utility of this new approach, we use simulation cross-validation experiments and subsequently analyze an empirical data set of 32 avian populations from Australia that are hypothesized to have expanded from smaller refugia populations in the late Pleistocene. The method can accommodate data set heterogeneity such as variability in effective population size, mutation rates, and sample sizes across species and exploits the statistical strength from the simultaneous analysis of multiple species. This hABC framework used in a multitaxa demographic context can increase our understanding of the impact of historical climate change by determining what proportion of the community responded in concert or independently and can be used with a wide variety of comparative phylogeographic data sets as biota-wide DNA barcoding data sets accumulate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

City Size, Density and Sectoral Structure: Exploring Urban Sustainability in the Regions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia

2010-05-01

For the first time in history, the Global population is more urban than rural and the trend is obvious at various scales. Cities do not serve just as dynamic centres of activities, jobs and consumption markets, social interactions and cultural expressions, but also carry the weight of the main environmental problems of current times and the near future. Global Warming, air and water pollution, population growth and recourse constraints, i.e. reduction of carrying capacity of the environment are among the well known ones. The overall aim of this research is to develop mitigation (at various scales) and adaptation systems, tailored to urban settlements. They should be effective at the very local as well as regional levels, assess and introduce innovative urban technologies and policies, reduce ecological footprint of cities and increase recycling efficiency. We propose the empirical method of urban sustainability assessment, that supports our hypothesis that city functioning, the changes in its population and area growth depends on the size, average and internal densities and the geographical form. The existing cities of three regions are examined: Western and Eastern Europe (incl. Russia), Latin America and China. There are fundamental urban developmental differences and also within the first region, namely between EU countries and the Eastern part of European geographical region. The cities are considered not only as some agglomerates of areas with dense population but from the ecological point of view, namely examining inflow of food and energy and outflow of waste products across the boundaries. There are major differences between the patterns of urbanisation in the studied regions, urban systems functioning and resilience. Continuous investigation of these differenced helps building regional scenarios of cities development, population allocation and pollution management for the 21st century.

Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards.

PubMed

San-Jose, Luis M; Peñalver-Alcázar, Miguel; Huyghe, Katleen; Breedveld, Merel C; Fitze, Patrick S

2016-12-01

Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.

Maternal arsenic exposure and birth outcomes: A comprehensive review of the epidemiologic literature focused on drinking water

PubMed Central

Bloom, Michael S.; Surdu, Simona; Neamtiu, Iulia A.; Gurzau, Eugen S.

2015-01-01

Inorganic arsenic (iAs) is a human toxicant to which populations may be exposed through consumption of geogenically contaminated groundwater. A growing body of experimental literature corroborates the reproductive toxicity of iAs; however, the results of human studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive review of epidemiologic studies focused on drinking water iAs exposure and birth outcomes to assess the evidence for causality and to make recommendations for future study. We reviewed 18 English language papers assessing birth weight, gestational age, and birth size. Thirteen of the studies were conducted among populations with frequent exposure to high-level groundwater iAs contamination (>10 μg/L) and five studies were conducted in areas without recognized contamination. Most studies comprised small samples and used cross-sectional designs, often with ecologic exposure assessment strategies, although several large prospective investigations and studies with individual-level measurements were also reported. We conclude that: 1) the epidemiologic evidence for an increased risk of low birth weight (<2,500 grams) is insufficient, although there exists limited evidence for birth weight decreases; 2) the evidence for increased preterm delivery is insufficient; and, 3) there exists minimal evidence for decreased birth size. In further investigation of birth weight and size, we recommend incorporation of individual susceptibility measures using appropriate biomarkers, with collection timed to windows of vulnerability and speciated arsenic analysis, as well as consideration of populations exposed primarily to drinking water iAs contamination <10 μg/L. Given the large potential public health impact, additional, high quality epidemiologic studies are necessary to more definitively assess the risk. PMID:24713268

Maternal arsenic exposure and birth outcomes: a comprehensive review of the epidemiologic literature focused on drinking water.

PubMed

Bloom, Michael S; Surdu, Simona; Neamtiu, Iulia A; Gurzau, Eugen S

2014-09-01

Inorganic arsenic (iAs) is a human toxicant to which populations may be exposed through consumption of geogenically contaminated groundwater. A growing body of experimental literature corroborates the reproductive toxicity of iAs; however, the results of human studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive review of epidemiologic studies focused on drinking water iAs exposure and birth outcomes to assess the evidence for causality and to make recommendations for future study. We reviewed 18 English language papers assessing birth weight, gestational age, and birth size. Thirteen of the studies were conducted among populations with frequent exposure to high-level groundwater iAs contamination (>10 μg/L) and five studies were conducted in areas without recognized contamination. Most studies comprised small samples and used cross-sectional designs, often with ecologic exposure assessment strategies, although several large prospective investigations and studies with individual-level measurements were also reported. We conclude that: (1) the epidemiologic evidence for an increased risk of low birth weight (<2500 g) is insufficient, although there exists limited evidence for birth weight decreases; (2) the evidence for increased preterm delivery is insufficient; and, (3) there exists minimal evidence for decreased birth size. In further investigation of birth weight and size, we recommend incorporation of individual susceptibility measures using appropriate biomarkers, with collection timed to windows of vulnerability and speciated arsenic analysis, as well as consideration of populations exposed primarily to drinking water iAs contamination <10 μg/L. Given the large potential public health impact, additional, high quality epidemiologic studies are necessary to more definitively assess the risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Annual Research Review: Understudied populations within the autism spectrum – current trends and future directions in neuroimaging research

PubMed Central

Jack, Allison; Pelphrey, Kevin

2017-01-01

Background Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental conditions that vary in both etiology and phenotypic expression. Expressions of ASD characterized by a more severe phenotype, including autism with intellectual disability (ASD+ID), autism with a history of developmental regression (ASD+R), and minimally verbal autism (ASD+MV) are understudied generally, and especially in the domain of neuroimaging. However, neuroimaging methods are a potentially powerful tool for understanding the etiology of these ASD subtypes. Scope and Methodology This review evaluates existing neuroimaging research on ASD+MV, ASD+ID, and ASD+R, identified by a search of the literature using the PubMed database, and discusses methodological, theoretical, and practical considerations for future research involving neuroimaging assessment of these populations. Findings There is a paucity of neuroimaging research on ASD+ID, ASD+MV, and ASD+R, and what findings do exist are often contradictory, or so sparse as to be ungeneralizable. We suggest that while greater sample sizes and more studies are necessary, more important would be a paradigm shift toward multimodal (e.g., imaging genetics) approaches that allow for the characterization of heterogeneity within etiologically diverse samples. PMID:28102566

Risk of collective failure provides an escape from the tragedy of the commons.

PubMed

Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

2011-06-28

From group hunting to global warming, how to deal with collective action may be formulated in terms of a public goods game of cooperation. In most cases, contributions depend on the risk of future losses. Here, we introduce an evolutionary dynamics approach to a broad class of cooperation problems in which attempting to minimize future losses turns the risk of failure into a central issue in individual decisions. We find that decisions within small groups under high risk and stringent requirements to success significantly raise the chances of coordinating actions and escaping the tragedy of the commons. We also offer insights on the scale at which public goods problems of cooperation are best solved. Instead of large-scale endeavors involving most of the population, which as we argue, may be counterproductive to achieve cooperation, the joint combination of local agreements within groups that are small compared with the population at risk is prone to significantly raise the probability of success. In addition, our model predicts that, if one takes into consideration that groups of different sizes are interwoven in complex networks of contacts, the chances for global coordination in an overall cooperating state are further enhanced.

Sleep Spindle Characteristics in Children with Neurodevelopmental Disorders and Their Relation to Cognition

PubMed Central

Wise, Merrill S.

2016-01-01

Empirical evidence indicates that sleep spindles facilitate neuroplasticity and “off-line” processing during sleep, which supports learning, memory consolidation, and intellectual performance. Children with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) exhibit characteristics that may increase both the risk for and vulnerability to abnormal spindle generation. Despite the high prevalence of sleep problems and cognitive deficits in children with NDD, only a few studies have examined the putative association between spindle characteristics and cognitive function. This paper reviews the literature regarding sleep spindle characteristics in children with NDD and their relation to cognition in light of what is known in typically developing children and based on the available evidence regarding children with NDD. We integrate available data, identify gaps in understanding, and recommend future research directions. Collectively, studies are limited by small sample sizes, heterogeneous populations with multiple comorbidities, and nonstandardized methods for collecting and analyzing findings. These limitations notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that future studies should examine associations between sleep spindle characteristics and cognitive function in children with and without NDD, and preliminary findings raise the intriguing question of whether enhancement or manipulation of sleep spindles could improve sleep-dependent memory and other aspects of cognitive function in this population. PMID:27478646

Physiological effects on fishes in a high-CO2 world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishimatsu, Atsushi; Hayashi, Masahiro; Lee, Kyoung-Seon; Kikkawa, Takashi; Kita, Jun

2005-09-01

Fish are important members of both freshwater and marine ecosystems and constitute a major protein source in many countries. Thus potential reduction of fish resources by high-CO2 conditions due to the diffusion of atmospheric CO2 into the surface waters or direct CO2 injection into the deep sea can be considered as another potential threat to the future world population. Fish, and other water-breathing animals, are more susceptible to a rise in environmental CO2 than terrestrial animals because the difference in CO2 partial pressure (PCO2) of the body fluid of water-breathing animals and ambient medium is much smaller (only a few torr (1 torr = 0.1333 kPa = 1316 μatm)) than in terrestrial animals (typically 30-40 torr). A survey of the literature revealed that hypercapnia acutely affects vital physiological functions such as respiration, circulation, and metabolism, and changes in these functions are likely to reduce growth rate and population size through reproduction failure and change the distribution pattern due to avoidance of high-CO2 waters or reduced swimming activities. This paper reviews the acute and chronic effects of CO2 on fish physiology and tries to clarify necessary areas of future research.

What facilitates the entry of persons with disabilities into South African companies?

PubMed

Wiggett-Barnard, Cindy; Swartz, Leslie

2012-01-01

The persistent high unemployment rate for persons with disabilities (PWDs) is a world-wide concern. The aim of this research was to identify facilitating factors for the entry of PWDs into the labour market. A survey of Human Resources (HR) managers in South African (SA) companies was conducted to explore what would assist with hiring PWDs. The sample population of companies was identified through the Marketline Library database and supplemented with all Johannesburg Stock Exchange companies. This rendered a population size of 348. A response rate of 25% (86) was achieved. Companies that have appointed PWDs in the past seem more willing to appoint PWDs in the future. Companies value information on accommodation (preparation of the environment and cost) and the impact of disability on job performance most. The use of specialised recruitment agencies, the development of targeted recruitment plans and staff sensitisation training, as well as internships are perceived as the best facilitators for the employment of PWDs. Rehabilitation practitioners can inform PWDs on the best strategies for approaching companies. Companies with facilitating factors already in place may also be more willing to employ PWDs and rehabilitation practitioners can target these companies as future employers of PWDs.

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.

2014-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

The past, present, and future of cancer incidence in the United States: 1975 through 2020.

PubMed

Weir, Hannah K; Thompson, Trevor D; Soman, Ashwini; Møller, Bjørn; Leadbetter, Steven

2015-06-01

The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers). Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (-3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females. Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

The Past, Present, and Future of Cancer Incidence in the United States: 1975 Through 2020

PubMed Central

Weir, Hannah K.; Thompson, Trevor D.; Soman, Ashwini; Møller, Bjørn; Leadbetter, Steven

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research. METHODS Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers). RESULTS Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (−3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer. PMID:25649671

Paper birch: Sentinels of climate change in the Niobrara River Valley, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther D.

2011-01-01

The Niobrara River Valley in the northern Great Plains supports scattered stands of paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh), a species more typical of boreal forests. These birch stands are considered to be relictual populations that have persisted since the end of the Wisconsin glaciation. Localized summer microclimates have likely facilitated the persistence of birch populations in a region otherwise unsuitable for the species. Dieback of canopy-sized birch has been observed throughout the valley in recent years, although no onset dates are documented. Changes in spring weather patterns may be causing rootlet injury so that trees die in spite of the still-cool summer microclimates. Current weather patterns, combined with little evidence of recruitment of young birch and great geographic distances from potential immigrant sources, make the future persistence of birch in the Niobrara River Valley stands uncertain.

Safety of Reiki Therapy for Newborns at Risk for Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome

PubMed Central

Wright-Esber, Sandra; Zupancic, Julie; Gargiulo, Deb; Woodall, Patricia

2018-01-01

The incidence of opioid abuse and subsequent drug withdrawal is exponentially on the rise in the United States for many populations including newborns who are born to drug-addicted mothers. These newborns often exhibit symptoms of neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) within 24 to 72 hours of birth. Treatment of NAS includes monitoring of withdrawal symptoms, managing physiological parameters, and the use of supportive and pharmacologic treatments. Although a few randomized controlled trials exist, studies on supportive intervention are generally limited by small sample sizes, case study reports, expert opinions, and descriptive design. Few studies address the safety of Reiki for newborns at risk for NAS using neonatal parameters. This pilot study addresses feasibility and demonstrates that Reiki is safe when administered to this high-risk population. Considerations for future studies are discussed. PMID:29315084

Effective population size and genetic conservation criteria for bull trout

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; F. W. Allendorf

2001-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept in the management of threatened species like bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. General guidelines suggest that effective population sizes of 50 or 500 are essential to minimize inbreeding effects or maintain adaptive genetic variation, respectively....

Estimating quality-adjusted life-year loss due to noncommunicable diseases in Korean adults through to the year 2040.

PubMed

Ock, Minsu; Han, Jung Won; Lee, Jin Yong; Kim, Seon-Ha; Jo, Min-Woo

2015-01-01

To estimate the loss in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in Korean adults due to 13 noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in 2010 and predict changes in QALY loss through to the year 2040. Thirteen NCDs (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, stroke, myocardial infarction, angina, arthritis, osteoporosis, asthma, allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, cataract, and depression) were selected from the Korean Community Health Survey 2010. The EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire index from the Korean Community Health Survey 2010 and the Korean valuation set were used to estimate utility weights according to sex, age, and disease. Morbidity data were also obtained from the Korean Community Health Survey 2010. Mortality data according to disease and life expectancy were retrieved from the Korean Statistical Information Service. To predict future QALY loss, future population projection data from the Korean Statistical Information Service were used as substitutes for 2010 population size. Among the assessed 13 NCDs, the largest total QALY loss was for hypertension (513,113 QALYs; units are omitted hereafter), followed by arthritis (509,317) and stroke (431,049). The largest QALY loss due to mortality was stroke (306,733), whereas the largest QALY loss due to morbidity was arthritis (502,513). By applying the middle estimate of future population, the largest increase in total QALY loss between 2010 and 2040 was for hypertension (840,582), followed by stroke (719,076) and diabetes mellitus (474,607). Hypertension, arthritis, and stroke are important in terms of total QALY loss, which will continuous to increase because of aging. These results could be used to develop cost-effective interventions that reduce the burden of NCDs. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

2014-01-01

Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are becoming increasingly popular for group size modeling. Choosing appropriate statistical distributions for modeling flock size data is fundamental to accurately estimating population summaries, determining required survey effort, and assessing and propagating uncertainty through decision-making processes.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings.

PubMed

Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

2016-01-01

An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243~9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

PubMed

Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

2016-01-01

Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

Methods to estimate effective population size using pedigree data: Examples in dog, sheep, cattle and horse

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective population sizes of 140 populations (including 60 dog breeds, 40 sheep breeds, 20 cattle breeds and 20 horse breeds) were computed using pedigree information and six different computation methods. Simple demographical information (number of breeding males and females), variance of progeny size, or evolution of identity by descent probabilities based on coancestry or inbreeding were used as well as identity by descent rate between two successive generations or individual identity by descent rate. Results Depending on breed and method, effective population sizes ranged from 15 to 133 056, computation method and interaction between computation method and species showing a significant effect on effective population size (P < 0.0001). On average, methods based on number of breeding males and females and variance of progeny size produced larger values (4425 and 356, respectively), than those based on identity by descent probabilities (average values between 93 and 203). Since breeding practices and genetic substructure within dog breeds increased inbreeding, methods taking into account the evolution of inbreeding produced lower effective population sizes than those taking into account evolution of coancestry. The correlation level between the simplest method (number of breeding males and females, requiring no genealogical information) and the most sophisticated one ranged from 0.44 to 0.60 according to species. Conclusions When choosing a method to compute effective population size, particular attention should be paid to the species and the specific genetic structure of the population studied. PMID:23281913

Persistence of distinctive morphotypes in the native range of the CITES-listed Aldabra giant tortoise.

PubMed

Turnbull, Lindsay A; Ozgul, Arpat; Accouche, Wilna; Baxter, Rich; ChongSeng, Lindsay; Currie, Jock C; Doak, Naomi; Hansen, Dennis M; Pistorius, Pierre; Richards, Heather; van de Crommenacker, Janske; von Brandis, Rainer; Fleischer-Dogley, Frauke; Bunbury, Nancy

2015-12-01

Understanding the extent of morphological variation in the wild population of Aldabra giant tortoises is important for conservation, as morphological variation in captive populations has been interpreted as evidence for lingering genes from extinct tortoise lineages. If true, this could impact reintroduction programmes in the region. The population of giant tortoises on Aldabra Atoll is subdivided and distributed around several islands. Although pronounced morphological variation was recorded in the late 1960s, it was thought to be a temporary phenomenon. Early researchers also raised concerns over the future of the population, which was perceived to have exceeded its carrying capacity. We analyzed monthly monitoring data from 12 transects spanning a recent 15-year period (1998-2012) during which animals from four subpopulations were counted, measured, and sexed. In addition, we analyzed survival data from individuals first tagged during the early 1970s. The population is stable with no sign of significant decline. Subpopulations differ in density, but these differences are mostly due to differences in the prevailing vegetation type. However, subpopulations differ greatly in both the size of animals and the degree of sexual dimorphism. Comparisons with historical data reveal that phenotypic differences among the subpopulations of tortoises on Aldabra have been apparent for the last 50 years with no sign of diminishing. We conclude that the giant tortoise population on Aldabra is subject to varying ecological selection pressures, giving rise to stable morphotypes in discrete subpopulations. We suggest therefore that (1) the presence of morphological differences among captive Aldabra tortoises does not alone provide convincing evidence of genes from other extinct species; and (2) Aldabra serves as an important example of how conservation and management in situ can add to the scientific value of populations and perhaps enable them to better adapt to future ecological pressures.

Density-Dependent Effects on Group Size Are Sex-Specific in a Gregarious Ungulate

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; van Beest, Floris M.; Brook, Ryan K.

2013-01-01

Density dependence can have marked effects on social behaviors such as group size. We tested whether changes in population density of a large herbivore (elk, Cervus canadensis) affected sex-specific group size and whether the response was density- or frequency-dependent. We quantified the probability and strength of changes in group sizes and dispersion as population density changed for each sex. We used group size data from a population of elk in Manitoba, Canada, that was experimentally reduced from 1.20 to 0.67 elk/km2 between 2002 and 2009. Our results indicated that functional responses of group size to population density are sex-specific. Females showed a positive density-dependent response in group size at population densities ≥0.70 elk/km2 and we found evidence for a minimum group size at population density ≤0.70 elk/km2. Changes in male group size were also density-dependent; however, the strength of the relationship was lower than for females. Density dependence in male group size was predominantly a result of fusion of solitary males into larger groups, rather than fusion among existing groups. Our study revealed that density affects group size of a large herbivore differently between males and females, which has important implications for the benefits e.g., alleviating predation risk, and costs of social behaviors e.g., competition for resources and mates, and intra-specific pathogen transmission. PMID:23326502

The future of the New Zealand plastic surgery workforce.

PubMed

Adams, Brandon M; Klaassen, Michael F; Tan, Swee T

2013-04-05

The New Zealand (NZ) plastic and reconstructive surgery (PRS) workforce provides reconstructive plastic surgery (RPS) public services from six centres. There has been little analysis on whether the workforce is adequate to meet the needs of the NZ population currently or in the future. This study analysed the current workforce, its distribution and future requirements. PRS manpower data, workforce activities, population statistics, and population modelling were analysed to determine current needs and predict future needs for the PRS workforce. The NZ PRS workforce is compared with international benchmarks. Regional variation of the workforce was analysed with respect to the population's access to PRS services. Future supply of specialist plastic surgeons is analysed. NZ has a lower number of plastic surgeons per capita than comparable countries. The current NZ PRS workforce is mal-distributed. Areas of current and emerging future need are identified. The current workforce mal-distribution will worsen with future population growth and distribution. Up to 60% of the NZ population will be at risk of inadequate access to PRS services by 2027. Development of PRS services must be coordinated to ensure that equitable and sustainable services are available throughout NZ. Strategies for ensuring satisfactory future workforce are discussed.

Comparative biology of the crab Goniopsis cruentata: geographic variation of body size, sexual maturity, and allometric growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lira, José Jonathas Pereira Rodrigues; Calado, Tereza Cristina dos Santos; Rezende, Carla Ferreira; Silva, José Roberto Feitosa

2015-12-01

Geographic variation of phenotypic traits is common across species and is often associated with variation in environmental conditions. Here, we found larger bodies and larger size at maturity in a northward, lower latitude population of the crab Goniopsis cruentata, which inhabits a hotter, drier environment in comparison with a southward, higher latitude population. Furthermore, the juvenile male gonopods grow more relative to body size in the population characterized by maturation at a smaller size. In contrast, the female abdomen widens at a higher rate among the late maturing population. These results provide further evidence that local environmental conditions play a role in phenotypic variation between populations inhabiting different latitudes. Moreover, they also show that variation in size at maturity and body size can lead to divergent allometric patterns of sexual characteristics that can have a sex-specific response.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men through the Network Scale-Up Method in Japan

PubMed Central

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. Methods and Findings An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. Conclusions The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods. PMID:22563366

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-parametric estimation of population size changes from the site frequency spectrum.

PubMed

Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Hobolth, Asger

2018-06-11

Changes in population size is a useful quantity for understanding the evolutionary history of a species. Genetic variation within a species can be summarized by the site frequency spectrum (SFS). For a sample of size n, the SFS is a vector of length n - 1 where entry i is the number of sites where the mutant base appears i times and the ancestral base appears n - i times. We present a new method, CubSFS, for estimating the changes in population size of a panmictic population from an observed SFS. First, we provide a straightforward proof for the expression of the expected site frequency spectrum depending only on the population size. Our derivation is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the instantaneous coalescent rate matrix. Second, we solve the inverse problem of determining the changes in population size from an observed SFS. Our solution is based on a cubic spline for the population size. The cubic spline is determined by minimizing the weighted average of two terms, namely (i) the goodness of fit to the observed SFS, and (ii) a penalty term based on the smoothness of the changes. The weight is determined by cross-validation. The new method is validated on simulated demographic histories and applied on unfolded and folded SFS from 26 different human populations from the 1000 Genomes Project.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

Evolutionary change during experimental ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Pespeni, Melissa H.; Sanford, Eric; Gaylord, Brian; Hill, Tessa M.; Hosfelt, Jessica D.; Jaris, Hannah K.; LaVigne, Michèle; Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Russell, Ann D.; Young, Megan K.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions are driving unprecedented changes in seawater chemistry, resulting in reduced pH and carbonate ion concentrations in the Earth’s oceans. This ocean acidification has negative but variable impacts on individual performance in many marine species. However, little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to an acidified ocean, and, as a result, predictions regarding future ecosystem responses remain incomplete. Here we demonstrate that ocean acidification generates striking patterns of genome-wide selection in purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) cultured under different CO2 levels. We examined genetic change at 19,493 loci in larvae from seven adult populations cultured under realistic future CO2 levels. Although larval development and morphology showed little response to elevated CO2, we found substantial allelic change in 40 functional classes of proteins involving hundreds of loci. Pronounced genetic changes, including excess amino acid replacements, were detected in all populations and occurred in genes for biomineralization, lipid metabolism, and ion homeostasis—gene classes that build skeletons and interact in pH regulation. Such genetic change represents a neglected and important impact of ocean acidification that may influence populations that show few outward signs of response to acidification. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid evolution in the face of ocean acidification and show that standing genetic variation could be a reservoir of resilience to climate change in this coastal upwelling ecosystem. However, effective response to strong natural selection demands large population sizes and may be limited in species impacted by other environmental stressors. PMID:23569232

Creating larger and better connected protected areas enhances the persistence of big game species in the maputaland-pondoland-albany biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Di Minin, Enrico; Hunter, Luke T B; Balme, Guy A; Smith, Robert J; Goodman, Peter S; Slotow, Rob

2013-01-01

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes.

Creating Larger and Better Connected Protected Areas Enhances the Persistence of Big Game Species in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Di Minin, Enrico; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Balme, Guy A.; Smith, Robert J.; Goodman, Peter S.; Slotow, Rob

2013-01-01

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. PMID:23977144

Saint Joseph's University Institute for Environmental Stewardship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCann, Micahel P.; Springer, Clint J.

Task A: Examination of the physiological, morphological, and reproductive responses of Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) cultivars identified as potential biofuel producing cultivars as well as naturally-occurring varieties of switchgrass to projected changes in climate for the central portion of the United States. This project was a multi-year project set in a field site located at the Konza Prairie Biological Station near Manhattan, KS USA. The major objective of the study was to understand the physiological and growth responses of the important biofuel grass species, Panicum virgatum (switch grass) to simulated changes in precipitation expected for the Central Plains region of themore » United States. Population level adaptation to broad-scale regional climates or within-population variation in genome size of this genetically and phenotypically diverse C4 grass species may influence the responses to future precipitation variability associated with climate change. Therefore, we investigated switchgrass responses to water variability between natural populations collected across latitudinal gradient and populations. P. virgatum plants from natural populations originating from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas received frequent, small precipitation events (“ambient’) or infrequent, large precipitation events (‘altered”) to simulate contrasting rainfall variability expected from this region. We measured leaf-level physiology, aboveground biomass varied significantly by population origin but did not differ by genome size. Our results suggest that trait variation in P. virgatum is primarily attributed to population-level adaptation across latitudinal gradient, not genome size, and that neither population-level adaptation nor genome size may be important predictors of P. virgatum responses to future climatic conditions. Based solely on the data presented here, the most important consideration when deciding what varieties of switchgrass to cultivate for biofuel feedstocks under future climate scenarios is local adaptation and not necessarily genome size as has been hypothesized in the literature. Task B: Installation of an extensive green roof system on the Science Center at Saint Joseph's University for research, research-training and educational outreach activities. An experimental green roof system was designed and installed by an outside contractor (Roofmeadows) on the roof of the Science Center at Saint Joseph's University. The roof system includes four test plots, each with a different drainage system, instrumentation to monitor storm water retention, roof deck temperature, heat flux into and out of the building, rain fall, wind speed and direction, relative humidity and heat emission from the roof system. The vegetative roof was planted with 26 species of plants, distributed throughout the roof area, to assess species/variety growth and coverage characteristics, both in terms of the different drain layer systems, and in terms of the different exposures along the north to south axis of the building. Analysis of the drain layer performance, in terms of storm water retention, shows that the aggregate (stone) drainage layer system performed the best, with the moisture management mat system second, and the geotextile drain layer and reservoir sheet layer systems coming in last. This information is of value in the planning and design of vegetative roof systems since the different types of drainage layer systems have different installation costs and different weights. The different drainage layer systems also seem to be having an impact on plant growth and spread with the test plot with the reservoir sheet layer actually having the poorest plant coverage and plant spread of all areas of the roof studied. Plant growth performance analysis is ongoing, but significant differences have been observed in the third growing season ('13) along the north to south axis, with most species doing better towards the northern end of the roof (in terms of percent ground coverage and plant spread and reproduction). Interestingly, plant growth in all four of the test plots was reduced relative to the lower areas of the roof (the lower area was ca. 2 inches lower than the test plots, due to the space needed for sensors under the plots. The lower roof area uses an aggregate drain layer comparable to that in the third test plot), even when accounting for the north to south differences. The reasons for these differences are not clear and studies are underway to examine the impact of wind scour, drainage rates, temperature, and other factors. This information will be of value to planners of extensive vegetative roof systems in the Philadelphia (and broader) region, since plant growth and roof system overall performance is influenced by local climate, making broad generalizations of performance difficult. Task C: Education and community outreach efforts by the IES involving conferences at SJU, presentations by faculty and students off campus, and educational signage. The Institute for Environmental Stewardship hosted three storm water management workshops on the SJU campus in Philadelphia, in collaboration with the Lower Merion Conservancy, a not-for-profit organization located in Montgomery County, PA. These workshops were free and open to the public. The three workshops (held each year in March) drew more than 200 participants total. The presenters included local and state government agencies, not for profit organizations involved in storm water and open space preservation, designers, engineers, planners and others. Feedback was uniformly positive and we plan to continue the workshops for the foreseeable future. Educational signage has been installed at four locations on campus to explain campus infrastructure related to storm water (rain gardens, vegetative roof and green facades), as well as detailed signage installed on the Science Center roof for the vegetative roof system. More than 100 people (from in and outside of SJU) have thus far participated in tours of the roof system. A digital signage system has been installed in the adjacent library and this system provides information about the vegetative roof project and other efforts. A web camera system for the roof has also been installed and the video will be simulcast to the digital signage and with web site (www.sju.edu/ies) in the near future.« less

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Variation in size frequency distribution of coral populations under different fishing pressures in two contrasting locations in the Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Grimsditch, G; Pisapia, C; Huck, M; Karisa, J; Obura, D; Sweet, M

2017-10-01

This study aimed to assess how the size-frequency distributions of coral genera varied between reefs under different fishing pressures in two contrasting Indian Ocean locations (the Maldives and East Africa). Using generalized linear mixed models, we were able to demonstrate that complex interactions occurred between coral genera, coral size class and fishing pressure. In both locations, we found Acropora coral species to be more abundant in non-fished compared to fished sites (a pattern which was consistent for nearly all the assessed size classes). Coral genera classified as 'stress tolerant' showed a contrasting pattern i.e. were higher in abundance in fished compared to non-fished sites. Site specific variations were also observed. For example, Maldivian reefs exhibited a significantly higher abundance in all size classes of 'competitive' corals compared to East Africa. This possibly indicates that East African reefs have already been subjected to higher levels of stress and are therefore less suitable environments for 'competitive' corals. This study also highlights the potential structure and composition of reefs under future degradation scenarios, for example with a loss of Acropora corals and an increase in dominance of 'stress tolerant' and 'generalist' coral genera. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Improved population estimates through the use of auxiliary information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Ralph, C.J.; Scott, J.M.

1981-01-01

When estimating the size of a population of birds, the investigator may have, in addition to an estimator based on a statistical sample, information on one of several auxiliary variables, such as: (1) estimates of the population made on previous occasions, (2) measures of habitat variables associated with the size of the population, and (3) estimates of the population sizes of other species that correlate with the species of interest. Although many studies have described the relationships between each of these kinds of data and the population size to be estimated, very little work has been done to improve the estimator by incorporating such auxiliary information. A statistical methodology termed 'empirical Bayes' seems to be appropriate to these situations. The potential that empirical Bayes methodology has for improved estimation of the population size of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is explored. In the example considered, three empirical Bayes estimators were found to reduce the error by one-fourth to one-half of that of the usual estimator.

[Problems of population and agricultural development in Rwanda].

PubMed

Sibomana, J M

1984-01-01

The primary goal of law 3/81 created by the National Office of Population (l'Office National de la Population--ONAPU) in 1981, is to establish a demographic policy consistent with national realities and designed to ease the problem of overpopulation. ONAPU supports family planning for all of Rwanda as an approach to the population situation. The family planning objective promotes conscientious and wanted procreation. It encourages couples to have children in accordance with a preestablished plan, which takes into account the size of the family and the calendar of procreation. Unmatched population growth with limited economic growth have been major concerns for ONAPU; hence, emphasis on maintaining a level of equilibrium between the 2 is a national priority. In the meantime, increased population growth has been causing agricultural problems. Small amounts of land available for cultivation and rudimentary agricultural technology necessitate a change in the financial organization of this sector. Simultaneously, there is an abundance of agricultural workers and a threat of famine due to population demands outstripping subsistence yields. If the population growth rate of Rwanda remains at 3.79%, the land will be insufficient. To avoid future problems, a financial revolution which involves both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors must be planned. Economic, social, and cultural reorganization is critical, especially for family planning. The policy of spacing births will not be accepted without amelioration 1st family and community health.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Strong effects of ionizing radiation from Chernobyl on mutation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Møller, Anders Pape; Mousseau, Timothy A.

2015-02-01

In this paper we use a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between radiation and mutation rates in Chernobyl across 45 published studies, covering 30 species. Overall effect size of radiation on mutation rates estimated as Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient was very large (E = 0.67; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.59 to 0.73), accounting for 44.3% of the total variance in an unstructured random-effects model. Fail-safe calculations reflecting the number of unpublished null results needed to eliminate this average effect size showed the extreme robustness of this finding (Rosenberg's method: 4135 at p = 0.05). Indirect tests did not provide any evidence of publication bias. The effect of radiation on mutations varied among taxa, with plants showing a larger effect than animals. Humans were shown to have intermediate sensitivity of mutations to radiation compared to other species. Effect size did not decrease over time, providing no evidence for an improvement in environmental conditions. The surprisingly high mean effect size suggests a strong impact of radioactive contamination on individual fitness in current and future generations, with potentially significant population-level consequences, even beyond the area contaminated with radioactive material.

Strong effects of ionizing radiation from Chernobyl on mutation rates.

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Mousseau, Timothy A

2015-02-10

In this paper we use a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between radiation and mutation rates in Chernobyl across 45 published studies, covering 30 species. Overall effect size of radiation on mutation rates estimated as Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient was very large (E = 0.67; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.59 to 0.73), accounting for 44.3% of the total variance in an unstructured random-effects model. Fail-safe calculations reflecting the number of unpublished null results needed to eliminate this average effect size showed the extreme robustness of this finding (Rosenberg's method: 4135 at p = 0.05). Indirect tests did not provide any evidence of publication bias. The effect of radiation on mutations varied among taxa, with plants showing a larger effect than animals. Humans were shown to have intermediate sensitivity of mutations to radiation compared to other species. Effect size did not decrease over time, providing no evidence for an improvement in environmental conditions. The surprisingly high mean effect size suggests a strong impact of radioactive contamination on individual fitness in current and future generations, with potentially significant population-level consequences, even beyond the area contaminated with radioactive material.

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

Factors leading to different viability predictions for a grizzly bear data set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, L.S.; Hayes, S.G.; Wisdom, M.J.; Citta, J.; Mattson, D.J.; Murphy, K.

1996-01-01

Population viability analysis programs are being used increasingly in research and management applications, but there has not been a systematic study of the congruence of different program predictions based on a single data set. We performed such an analysis using four population viability analysis computer programs: GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS/AGE, and VORTEX. The standardized demographic rates used in all programs were generalized from hypothetical increasing and decreasing grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) populations. Idiosyncracies of input format for each program led to minor differences in intrinsic growth rates that translated into striking differences in estimates of extinction rates and expected population size. In contrast, the addition of demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding costs caused only a small divergence in viability predictions. But, the addition of density dependence caused large deviations between the programs despite our best attempts to use the same density-dependent functions. Population viability programs differ in how density dependence is incorporated, and the necessary functions are difficult to parameterize accurately. Thus, we recommend that unless data clearly suggest a particular density-dependent model, predictions based on population viability analysis should include at least one scenario without density dependence. Further, we describe output metrics that may differ between programs; development of future software could benefit from standardized input and output formats across different programs.

Population challenges for Bangladesh in the coming decades.

PubMed

Streatfield, Peter Kim; Karar, Zunaid Ahsan

2008-09-01

Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other 'mega' country (> 100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption.

Population Challenges for Bangladesh in the Coming Decades

PubMed Central

Streatfield, Peter Kim; Karar, Zunaid Ahsan

2008-01-01

Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other ‘mega’ country (>100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption. PMID:18831223

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

PubMed

Pleasants, John M; Zalucki, Myron P; Oberhauser, Karen S; Brower, Lincoln P; Taylor, Orley R; Thogmartin, Wayne E

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Group selections among laboratory populations of Tribolium.

PubMed

Wade, M J

1976-12-01

Selection at the population level or group selection is defined as genetic change that is brought about or maintained by the differential extinction and/or proliferation of populations. Group selection for both increased and decreased adult population size was carried out among laboratory populations of Tribolium castaneum at 37-day intervals. The effect of individual selection within populations on adult population size was evaluated in an additional control series of populations. The response in the group selection treatments occurred rapidly, within three or four generations, and was large in magnitude, at times differing from the controls by over 200%. This response to selection at the populational level occurred despite strong individual selection which caused a decline in the mean size of the control populations from over 200 adults to near 50 adults in nine 37-day intervals. "Assay" experiments indicated that selective changes in fecundity, developmental time, body weight, and cannibalism rates were responsible in part for the observed treatment differences in adult population size. These findings have implications in terms of speciation in organisms whose range is composed of many partially isolated local populations.

Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii): Implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pittman, Shannon E.; King, T.L.; Faurby, S.; Dorcas, M.E.

2011-01-01

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture-recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0. 893 (SE = 0. 018, 95% confidence interval, 0. 853-0. 924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4. 8 ?? 0. 5) and observed heterozygosity (0. 619 ?? 0. 064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

The effect of education on climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

2017-12-01

Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased labor productivity, but decrease emissions in the long term primarily as a result of slower population growth. At the same time, improved education positively affects all aspects of the HDI at all time horizons. Important caveats include the uncertainty in the effect of education on economic growth.

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

Acidification reduced growth rate but not swimming speed of larval sea urchins.

PubMed

Chan, Kit Yu Karen; García, Eliseba; Dupont, Sam

2015-05-15

Swimming behaviors of planktonic larvae impact dispersal and population dynamics of many benthic marine invertebrates. This key ecological function is modulated by larval development dynamics, biomechanics of the resulting morphology, and behavioral choices. Studies on ocean acidification effects on larval stages have yet to address this important interaction between development and swimming under environmentally-relevant flow conditions. Our video motion analysis revealed that pH covering present and future natural variability (pH 8.0, 7.6 and 7.2) did not affect age-specific swimming of larval green urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis in still water nor in shear, despite acidified individuals being significantly smaller in size (reduced growth rate). This maintenance of speed and stability in shear was accompanied by an overall change in size-corrected shape, implying changes in swimming biomechanics. Our observations highlight strong evolutionary pressure to maintain swimming in a varying environment and the plasticity in larval responses to environmental change.

Women's health: periodontitis and its relation to hormonal changes, adverse pregnancy outcomes and osteoporosis.

PubMed

Krejci, Charlene B; Bissada, Nabil F

2012-01-01

To examine the literature with respect to periodontitis and issues specific to women's health, namely, hormonal changes, adverse pregnancy outcomes and osteoporosis. The literature was evaluated to review reported associations between periodontitis and genderspecific issues, namely, hormonal changes, adverse pregnancy outcomes and osteoporosis. Collectively, the literature provided a large body of evidence that supports various associations between periodontitis and hormonal changes, adverse pregnancy outcomes and osteoporosis; however, certain shortcomings were noted with respect to biases involving definitions, sample sizes and confounding variables. Specific cause and effect relationships could not be delineated at this time and neither could definitive treatment interventions. Future research must include randomised controlled trials with consistent definitions, adequate controls and sufficiently large sample sizes in order to clarify specific associations, identify cause and effect relationships, define treatment options and determine treatment interventions which will lessen the untoward effects on the at-risk populations.

Cumulative meta-analysis of the relationship between useful field of view and driving performance in older adults: current and future implications.

PubMed

Clay, Olivio J; Wadley, Virginia G; Edwards, Jerri D; Roth, David L; Roenker, Daniel L; Ball, Karlene K

2005-08-01

Driving is a complex behavior that requires the utilization of a wide range of individual abilities. Identifying assessments that not only capture individual differences, but also are related to older adults' driving performance would be beneficial. This investigation examines the relationship between the Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment and objective measures of retrospective or concurrent driving performance, including state-recorded accidents, on-road driving, and driving simulator performance. The PubMed and PsycINFO databases were searched to retrieve eight studies that reported bivariate relationships between UFOV and these objective driving measures. Cumulative meta-analysis techniques were used to combine the effect sizes in an attempt to determine whether the strength of the relationship was stable across studies and to assess whether a sufficient number of studies have been conducted to validate the relationship between UFOV and driving performance. A within-group homogeneity of effect sizes test revealed that the samples could be thought of as being drawn from the same population, Q [7] = 11.29, p (one-tailed) = 0.13. Therefore, the effect sizes of eight studies were combined for the present cumulative meta-analysis. The weighted mean effect size across the studies revealed a large effect (Cohen's d = 0.945), with poorer UFOV performance associated with negative driving outcomes. This relationship was robust across multiple indices of driving performance and several research laboratories. This convergence of evidence across numerous studies using different methodologies confirms the importance of the UFOV assessment as a valid and reliable index of driving performance and safety. Recent prospective studies have confirmed a relationship between UFOV performance and future crashes, further supporting the use of this instrument as a potential screening measure for at-risk older drivers.

Population-Based Resequencing of Experimentally Evolved Populations Reveals the Genetic Basis of Body Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Turner, Thomas L.; Stewart, Andrew D.; Fields, Andrew T.; Rice, William R.; Tarone, Aaron M.

2011-01-01

Body size is a classic quantitative trait with evolutionarily significant variation within many species. Locating the alleles responsible for this variation would help understand the maintenance of variation in body size in particular, as well as quantitative traits in general. However, successful genome-wide association of genotype and phenotype may require very large sample sizes if alleles have low population frequencies or modest effects. As a complementary approach, we propose that population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations allows for considerable power to map functional variation. Here, we use this technique to investigate the genetic basis of natural variation in body size in Drosophila melanogaster. Significant differentiation of hundreds of loci in replicate selection populations supports the hypothesis that the genetic basis of body size variation is very polygenic in D. melanogaster. Significantly differentiated variants are limited to single genes at some loci, allowing precise hypotheses to be formed regarding causal polymorphisms, while other significant regions are large and contain many genes. By using significantly associated polymorphisms as a priori candidates in follow-up studies, these data are expected to provide considerable power to determine the genetic basis of natural variation in body size. PMID:21437274

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

PubMed Central

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2014-03-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, a significant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuated between 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the parities of these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales.

Gravel resources, urbanization, and future land use, Front Range Urban Corridor, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soule, James M.; Fitch, Harold R.

1974-01-01

An assessment of gravel needs in Front Range Urban Corridor markets to 2000 A.D., based on forecast population increases and urbanization, indicates that adequate resources to meet anticipated needs are potentially available, if future land use does not preclude their extraction. Because of urban encroachment onto gravel-bearing lands, this basic construction material is in short supply nationally and in the Front Range Urban Corridor. Longer hauls, increased prices, and use of alternatives, especially crushed rock aggregate, have resulted. An analysis of possible sequential land uses following gravel mining indicates that a desirable use is for 'real estate' ponds and small lakes. A method for computing gravel reserves, based on planimeter measurement of area of resource-bearing lands and statistical analysis of reliability of thickness and size distribution data, was developed to compute reserves in individual markets. A discussion of the qualitative 'usability' of these reserves is then made for the individual markets.

Current Situation and Future Prospects for Global Beef Production: Overview of Special Issue.

PubMed

Smith, Stephen B; Gotoh, Takafumi; Greenwood, Paul L

2018-05-31

The demand for beef as a protein source is increasing worldwide, although in most countries beef accounts for considerably less than half of total meat consumption. Beef also provides a highly desirable eating experience in developed countries and, increasingly, in developing countries. The sustainability of beef production has different meanings in the various geographical and socio-economic regions of the world. Natural resources including land mass and uses, rainfall and access to livestock feed, and the robustness of the economy are major determinants of the perception of beef sustainability. In this overview of the 2016 International Symposium on "Future Beef in Asia" and this subsequent Special Edition of the Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences on "Current Situation and Future Prospects for Global Beef Production", the contributions have been grouped into the following categories: Countries in Southeast Asia; Europe; and Countries producing highly marbled beef for export and/or domestic consumption. They also include reference to Special Topics including marbled beef production, and use of "omics" technologies to enhance beef quality assurance. Among these broad categories, notable differences exist across countries in the production and marketing of beef. These reflect differences in factors including natural resource availability and climate, population size, traditional culture and degree of economic development including industrial and technological developments. We trust that the International Symposium and this Special Edition on Current Situation and Future Prospects for Global Beef Production, the contents of which that are briefly summarized in this paper, will serve as a valuable resource for the livestock industries, researchers and students with an interest in enhancing the prospects for sustainable, efficient beef production that satisfies the growing size and complexity of consumer demands and markets for beef.

Detecting past changes of effective population size

PubMed Central

Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

2014-01-01

Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

Body size and lean mass of brown bears across and within four diverse ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Gustine, David; Mangipane, Buck A.; Joly, Kyle; Leacock, William; Mangipane, Lindsey S.; Erlenbach, Joy; Sorum, Mathew; Cameron, Matthew; Belant, Jerrold L.; Cambier, Troy

2018-01-01

Variation in body size across populations of brown bears (Ursus arctos) is largely a function of the availability and quality of nutritional resources while plasticity within populations reflects utilized niche width with implications for population resiliency. We assessed skull size, body length, and lean mass of adult female and male brown bears in four Alaskan study areas that differed in climate, primary food resources, population density, and harvest regime. Full body-frame size, as evidenced by asymptotic skull size and body length, was achieved by 8 to 14 years of age across populations and sexes. Lean body mass of both sexes continued to increase throughout their life. Differences between populations existed for all morphological measures in both sexes, bears in ecosystems with abundant salmon were generally larger. Within all populations, broad variation was seen in body size measures of adults with females displaying roughly a 2-fold difference in lean mass and males showing a 3- to 4-fold difference. The high level of intraspecific variation seen across and within populations suggests the presence of multiple life-history strategies and niche variation relative to resource partitioning, risk tolerance or aversion, and competition. Further, this level of variation indicates broad potential to adapt to changes within a given ecosystem and across the species’ range.

The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.

2007-01-01

Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.

Genome-wide resequencing of KRICE_CORE reveals their potential for future breeding, as well as functional and evolutionary studies in the post-genomic era.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Sung; He, Qiang; Kim, Kyu-Won; Yoon, Min-Young; Ra, Won-Hee; Li, Feng Peng; Tong, Wei; Yu, Jie; Oo, Win Htet; Choi, Buung; Heo, Eun-Beom; Yun, Byoung-Kook; Kwon, Soon-Jae; Kwon, Soon-Wook; Cho, Yoo-Hyun; Lee, Chang-Yong; Park, Beom-Seok; Park, Yong-Jin

2016-05-26

Rice germplasm collections continue to grow in number and size around the world. Since maintaining and screening such massive resources remains challenging, it is important to establish practical methods to manage them. A core collection, by definition, refers to a subset of the entire population that preserves the majority of genetic diversity, enhancing the efficiency of germplasm utilization. Here, we report whole-genome resequencing of the 137 rice mini core collection or Korean rice core set (KRICE_CORE) that represents 25,604 rice germplasms deposited in the Korean genebank of the Rural Development Administration (RDA). We implemented the Illumina HiSeq 2000 and 2500 platform to produce short reads and then assembled those with 9.8 depths using Nipponbare as a reference. Comparisons of the sequences with the reference genome yielded more than 15 million (M) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 1.3 M INDELs. Phylogenetic and population analyses using 2,046,529 high-quality SNPs successfully assigned rice accessions to the relevant rice subgroups, suggesting that these SNPs capture evolutionary signatures that have accumulated in rice subpopulations. Furthermore, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for four exemplary agronomic traits in the KRIC_CORE manifest the utility of KRICE_CORE; that is, identifying previously defined genes or novel genetic factors that potentially regulate important phenotypes. This study provides strong evidence that the size of KRICE_CORE is small but contains high genetic and functional diversity across the genome. Thus, our resequencing results will be useful for future breeding, as well as functional and evolutionary studies, in the post-genomic era.

Genetic structure in contemporary south Tyrolean isolated populations revealed by analysis of Y-chromosome, mtDNA, and Alu polymorphisms.

PubMed

Pichler, Irene; Mueller, Jakob C; Stefanov, Stefan A; De Grandi, Alessandro; Volpato, Claudia Beu; Pinggera, Gerd K; Mayr, Agnes; Ogriseg, Martin; Ploner, Franz; Meitinger, Thomas; Pramstaller, Peter P

2006-08-01

Most of the inhabitants of South Tyrol in the eastern Italian Alps can be considered isolated populations because of their physical separation by mountain barriers and their sociocultural heritage. We analyzed the genetic structure of South Tyrolean populations using three types of genetic markers: Y-chromosome, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and autosomal Alu markers. Using random samples taken from the populations of Val Venosta, Val Pusteria, Val Isarco, Val Badia, and Val Gardena, we calculated genetic diversity within and among the populations. Microsatellite diversity and unique event polymorphism diversity (on the Y chromosome) were substantially lower in the Ladin-speaking population of Val Badia compared to the neighboring German-speaking populations. In contrast, the genetic diversity of mtDNA haplotypes was lowest for the upper Val Venosta and Val Pusteria. These data suggest a low effective population size, or little admixture, for the gene pool of the Ladin-speaking population from Val Badia. Interestingly, this is more pronounced for Ladin males than for Ladin females. For the pattern of genetic Alu variation, both Ladin samples (Val Gardena and Val Badia) are among the samples with the lowest diversity. An admixture analysis of one German-speaking valley (Val Venosta) indicates a relatively high genetic contribution of Ladin origin. The reduced genetic diversity and a high genetic differentiation in the Rhaetoroman- and German-speaking South Tyrolean populations may constitute an important basis for future medical genetic research and gene mapping studies in South Tyrol.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260