Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents' source of cigarette access?

PubMed

Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

2017-06-01

We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents' cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7-12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07-1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source.

Breakeven Prices for Photovoltaics on Supermarkets in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ong, S.; Clark, N.; Denholm, P.

The photovoltaic (PV) breakeven price is the PV system price at which the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. This point is also called 'grid parity' and can be expressed as dollars per watt ($/W) of installed PV system capacity. Achieving the PV breakeven price depends on many factors, including the solar resource, local electricity prices, customer load profile, PV incentives, and financing. In the United States, where these factors vary substantially across regions, breakeven prices vary substantially across regions as well. In this study, we estimate current and future breakeven prices formore » PV systems installed on supermarkets in the United States. We also evaluate key drivers of current and future commercial PV breakeven prices by region. The results suggest that breakeven prices for PV systems installed on supermarkets vary significantly across the United States. Non-technical factors -- including electricity rates, rate structures, incentives, and the availability of system financing -- drive break-even prices more than technical factors like solar resource or system orientation. In 2020 (where we assume higher electricity prices and lower PV incentives), under base-case assumptions, we estimate that about 17% of supermarkets will be in utility territories where breakeven conditions exist at a PV system price of $3/W; this increases to 79% at $1.25/W (the DOE SunShot Initiative's commercial PV price target for 2020). These percentages increase to 26% and 91%, respectively, when rate structures favorable to PV are used.« less

Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents’ source of cigarette access?

PubMed Central

Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

2017-01-01

Abstract We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents’ cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7–12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07–1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source. PMID:28658140

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Journal pricing issues: an economic perspective.

PubMed Central

Hafner, A W; Podsadecki, T J; Whitely, W P

1990-01-01

Scientific journal prices have increased markedly in the past two decades, outpacing inflation by severalfold. Such increases challenge the librarian's ability to manage acquisitions resources effectively and threaten the mission of the health sciences library as a resource for present and future scientific information needs. Explanations for serial price increases vary with the point of view considered. Publishers, librarians, faculty, and consumers of scientific information perceive the situation differently. This paper provides an economic analysis of each group's views. Particular emphasis is given to the aspects of journal publishing and pricing that foster price increases. In addition, the paper examines the problems of dual-pricing structures and narrowly focused journals that cater to subspecialties of medicine. Suggested responses to subscription rate increases are offered to curtail further increases and to avoid the potential detrimental effects of reduced library collections. Since one of the underpinnings of education is threatened by reductions in library collections, actions must be taken by publishers, librarians, faculty, and professional associations to ameliorate the present situation and to limit additional increases in serial prices. PMID:2203496

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas. Improving water demand forecasts will help planners understand and optimize future investments in water supply infrastructure and related programs.

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

2008-01-01

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

2017-05-01

The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

Phosphate rock costs, prices and resources interaction.

PubMed

Mew, M C

2016-01-15

This article gives the author's views and opinions as someone who has spent his working life analyzing the international phosphate sector as an independent consultant. His career spanned two price hike events in the mid-1970's and in 2008, both of which sparked considerable popular and academic interest concerning adequacy of phosphate rock resources, the impact of rising mining costs and the ability of mankind to feed future populations. An analysis of phosphate rock production costs derived from two major industry studies performed in 1983 and 2013 shows that in nominal terms, global average cash production costs increased by 27% to $38 per tonne fob mine in the 30 year period. In real terms, the global average cost of production has fallen. Despite the lack of upward pressure from increasing costs, phosphate rock market prices have shown two major spikes in the 30 years to 2013, with periods of less volatility in between. These price spike events can be seen to be related to the escalating investment cost required by new mine capacity, and as such can be expected to be repeated in future. As such, phosphate rock price volatility is likely to have more impact on food prices than rising phosphate rock production costs. However, as mining costs rise, recycling of P will also become increasingly driven by economics rather than legislation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM). Revision A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Michael Hosung

1997-01-01

In the recent couple of decades, due to international competition, the US launchers lost a considerable amount of market share in the international space launch industry'. Increased international competition has continuously affected the US dominance to eventually place great pressure on future US space launch programs. To compete for future payload and passenger delivery markets, new launch vehicles must first be capable of reliably reaching a number of desired orbital destinations with customer-desired payload capacities. However, the ultimate success of a new launch vehicle program will depend on the launch price it is capable of offering it's customers. Extremely aggressive pricing strategies will be required for a new domestic launch service to compete with low-price international launchers. Low launch prices, then, naturally require a tight budget for the launch program economy. Therefore, budget constraints established by low-pricing requirements eventually place pressure on new launch vehicles to have unprecedentedly low Life Cycle Costs (LCC's).

Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

PubMed

De Vries, A; Feleke, S

2008-12-01

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not significantly different. Application of the modified Mariano-Diebold tests showed that no method included all the information contained in the other methods. In conclusion, both F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods tended to more accurately predict the future uniform milk prices than the CURRENT method, but prediction errors could be substantial even a few months into the future. The majority of the prediction error was caused by the inefficiency of the futures markets to predict the class III cash prices.

Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2018-02-01

The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

Tax, price and cigarette smoking: evidence from the tobacco documents and implications for tobacco company marketing strategies

PubMed Central

Chaloupka, F; Cummings, K; Morley, C.; Horan, J.

2002-01-01

Methods: Data for this study come from tobacco industry documents contained in the Youth and Marketing database created by the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and available through http:// roswell.tobaccodocuments.org, supplemented with documents obtained from http://www.tobaccodocuments.org. Results: Tobacco company documents provide clear evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette smoking, describing how tax related and other price increases lead to significant reductions in smoking, particularly among young persons. This information was very important in developing the industry's pricing strategies, including the development of lower price branded generics and the pass through of cigarette excise tax increases, and in developing a variety of price related marketing efforts, including multi-pack discounts, couponing, and others. Conclusions: Pricing and price related promotions are among the most important marketing tools employed by tobacco companies. Future tobacco control efforts that aim to raise prices and limit price related marketing efforts are likely to be important in achieving reductions in tobacco use and the public health toll caused by tobacco. PMID:11893816

Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

2012-12-01

In absence of of new crop varieties or significant shifts in the geography of corn production, US national corn yields variation could double by the year 2040 as a result of climate change and without adaptation this could lead the variability in US corn prices to quadruple (Diffenbaugh et al. 2012). In addition to climate induced price changes, analysis of recent commodity price spikes suggests that interventionist trade policies are partly to blame. Assuming we cannot much influence the future climate outcome, what policies can we undertake to adapt better? Can we use markets to blunt this edge? Diffenbaugh et al. find that sale of corn- ethanol for use in liquid fuel, when governed by quotas such as US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), could make US corn prices even more variable; in contrast the same food-fuel market link (we refer to it as intersectoral link) may well dampen price volatility when the sale of corn to ethanol industry is driven by higher future oil prices. The latter however comes at the cost of exposing corn prices to the greater volatility in oil markets. Similarly intervention in corn trade can make US corn prices less or more volatile by distorting international corn price transmission. A negative US corn yield shock shows that domestic corn supply falls and domestic prices to go up irrespective of whether or not markets are integrated. How much the prices go up depends on how much demand adjusts to accommodate the supply shock. Based on the forgoing analysis, one should expect that demand would adjust more readily when markets are integrated and therefore reduce the resulting price fluctuation. Simulation results confirm this response of corn markets. In terms of relative comparisons however a policy driven intersectoral integration is least effective and prices rise much more. Similarly, a positive world oil price shock makes the US oil imports expensive and with oil being used to produce gasoline blends, it increases the price of gasoline and reduces its demand. In the presence of domestic integration, ethanol production rises to substitute oil in the gasoline blend and thereby increases the corn demand and prices. However if one takes into account increase in corn price due to increased production costs (increase in oil price increases fertilizer prices - a major input into corn production) and reduced corn prices due to reduced fuel demand and therefore reduced ethanol additive demand; the prices can go either way. Our initial simulations show that they do in fact go down with mandate driven integration. This raises some more general questions: Whether integration (intersectoral and international) can be an effective strategy for adapting to climate change? And which of the four adaptation options - RFS or oil price driven domestic integration, full corn tariff liberalization or restricting tariff manipulation by partners - would be more effective in comparison to other adaptation (including no adaptation) scenarios? We implement the alternative adaptation strategies, while sampling from the same corn yield and oil price distributions and compare the resulting corn price variations to the base case where no such adaptation has been undertaken. Our initial results suggest that intersectoral integration is more effective form of adaptation than international one, but only if driven by market forces and not mandates.

The Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy Scripts: Prescription Drug Pricing.

PubMed

Sumida, Wesley K; Taniguchi, Ronald; Juarez, Deborah Taira

2016-01-01

Prescription drugs have reduced morbidity and mortality and improved the quality of life of millions of Americans. Yet, concerns over drug price increases loom. Drug spending has risen relatively slowly over the past decade because many of the most popular brand-name medicines lost patent protection. In the near future, there will be fewer low-cost generics coming into the market to offset the rising prices of brand-name drugs. Drug expenditures are influenced by both volume and price. This article focuses on how drug prices are set in the United States and current trends. Drug prices are determined through an extremely complicated set of interactions between pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care organizations, hospitals, chain stores, and consumers. The process differs depending on the type of drug and place of delivery. Rising drug prices have come under increased scrutiny due to increased cost inflation and because many price increases come as a result of mergers and acquisitions of generic drug companies or changes in ownership of brand name drug manufacturers. Other countries have reigned in drug prices by negotiating with or regulating pharmaceutical manufacturers. The best long-term solution to rising drug prices is yet to be determined but the United States will continue to debate this issue and the discussions will get more heated if drug expenditures continue to rise at a rapid rate (ie, increasing 13% in 2014 from the previous year).

Carbon dioxide removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffman, D.'Maris; Lockley, Andrew

2017-01-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for later performance on a contract. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded directly between two parties. Futures and forwards are used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the potential use of futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets; concluding that they have one principal advantage (near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge caution about the prospects for market failure. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. While regulation offers increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach—finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Paying the price: a cross-sectional survey of Australian socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers' responses to hypothetical cigarette price rises.

PubMed

Guillaumier, Ashleigh; Bonevski, Billie; Paul, Christine; D'Este, Catherine; Doran, Christopher; Siahpush, Mohammad

2014-03-01

Increases in tobacco taxation can lead to reductions in tobacco consumption and prevalence of use across social groups. However, use of price-minimisation strategies to manage current and future tobacco use and the role of financial stress is less understood. This study aimed to measure the effect of cigarette price increases on price-minimisation strategy endorsement and financial stress among socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers. Community service organisation welfare recipients in NSW, Australia completed a touchscreen survey. Smoking history, financial stress, highest price to quit and responses to hypothetical cigarette price increases were assessed. Participants were 354 smokers (response rate = 79%). Most participants received income from a government pension (95%), earned

The effect of the implementation of low price medicine policy on medicine price in China: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Guan, Xiaodong; Yang, Mingchun; Man, Chunxia; Tian, Ye; Shi, Luwen

2018-04-30

In an effort to relieve the pressure of drug shortages, the Chinese government implemented Low-price Medicines (LPM) policy to raise the price cap in July 2014. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the implementation of this policy on drug price in China. Price data of 491 LPM, including 218 low-price chemical medicines (LPCM) and 273 low-price traditional Chinese medicines (LPTCM), were collected from 699 hospitals. We used interrupted time series design to identify the variation of monthly Laspeyres Indexes (LI) and Paasche Indexes (PI) for LPM, LPCM, and LPTCM. The result demonstrated that although LPM expenditures increased, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures fell from 3.6% to 3.2%. After the implementation of LPM policy, there was a significant increasing trend in LPM-PI, LPCM-PI, and LPTCM-PI. The trend in LPM-LI and LPCM-LI was found from descending to rising. However, for LPTCM, the trend in the LI remained to decrease after the policy implementation. Despite the LPM policy had an increasing impact on the LPM drug price, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures did not increase. More efforts are needed in the future to promote the rational drug use in China. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

College Costs: Recent Trends, Likely Future. Policy Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Cathy

Recent trends in college costs and reasons why college costs have been increasing are considered. Comparative data are presented on recent rates of growth among average college charges, faculty salaries, the Higher Education Price Index (HEPI), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is shown that from 1977 through 1982, average total tuition,…

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DOE may increase the rate of purchases if prices fall below recent price trends or futures markets... accordance with the FAR and the DEAR. (b) Acquisition strategy. (1) DOE solicitations: (i) May be either... availability of ships, pipelines and terminals to move and receive the oil. (3) Based on the market analysis...

Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

The Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy Scripts

PubMed Central

Sumida, Wesley K; Taniguchi, Ronald; Juarez, Deborah Taira

2016-01-01

Prescription drugs have reduced morbidity and mortality and improved the quality of life of millions of Americans. Yet, concerns over drug price increases loom. Drug spending has risen relatively slowly over the past decade because many of the most popular brand-name medicines lost patent protection. In the near future, there will be fewer low-cost generics coming into the market to offset the rising prices of brand-name drugs. Drug expenditures are influenced by both volume and price. This article focuses on how drug prices are set in the United States and current trends. Drug prices are determined through an extremely complicated set of interactions between pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care organizations, hospitals, chain stores, and consumers. The process differs depending on the type of drug and place of delivery. Rising drug prices have come under increased scrutiny due to increased cost inflation and because many price increases come as a result of mergers and acquisitions of generic drug companies or changes in ownership of brand name drug manufacturers. Other countries have reigned in drug prices by negotiating with or regulating pharmaceutical manufacturers. The best long-term solution to rising drug prices is yet to be determined but the United States will continue to debate this issue and the discussions will get more heated if drug expenditures continue to rise at a rapid rate (ie, increasing 13% in 2014 from the previous year). PMID:26870605

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

2018-01-01

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

Carbon Dioxide Removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, A.; Coffman, D.

2016-12-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for performance on a contract at some later date. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded over-the-counter between two independent parties. Both futures and forward contracts are commonly used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the use of potential use of exchange-traded futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets. We conclude that they have one principal advantage (in that they give near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (in that a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge great caution in the use of this approach. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. Whilst regulation offers generally increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach - finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Future Directions for Transit Pricing : Proceedings of the September 1980 Conference on Transit Pricing Innovations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

The purpose of the conference was to provide practical guidance to policy makers and transit operators on improved pricing policies and strategies. Topics covered include: trends and policies in future transit pricing; conventional and paratransit in...

Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices, An

EIA Publications

2005-01-01

This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three most recent winters with futures prices as they evolve from April through the following February, when trading for the March contract ends.

Do follow-on therapeutic substitutes induce price competition between hospital medicines? Evidence from the Danish hospital sector.

PubMed

Hostenkamp, Gisela

2013-06-01

The pricing of follow-on drugs, that offer only limited health benefits over existing therapeutic alternatives, is a recurring health policy debate. This study investigates whether follow-on therapeutic substitutes create price competition between branded hospital medicines. New follow-on drugs and their incumbent therapeutic competitors were identified from Danish sales and product registration data on hospital pharmaceuticals using medically relevant criteria. We examined whether follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors, and whether incumbent competitors react to entry of follow-ons through price adjustments using a random intercept panel model. We found no evidence that follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors. Furthermore, potentially due to low sample size, we found no evidence that prices for incumbent pioneer products were significantly reduced as a reaction to competition from follow-on drugs. Competition between patented therapeutic substitutes did not seem to increase price competition and containment of pharmaceutical expenditures in the Danish hospital market. Strengthening hospitals' incentives to consider the price of alternative treatment options paired with a more active formulary management may increase price competition between therapeutic substitutes in the Danish hospital sector in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Multi-Frequency Correlation Between Eua and sCER Futures Prices: Evidence from the Emd Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue-Jun; Huang, Yi-Song

2015-05-01

Currently European Union Allowances (EUA) and secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) have become two dominant carbon trading assets for investors and their linkage attracts much attention from academia and practitioners in recent years. Under this circumstance, we use the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach to decompose the two carbon futures contract prices and discuss their correlation from the multi-frequency perspective. The empirical results indicate that, first, the EUA and sCER futures price movements can be divided into those triggered by the long-term, medium-term and short-term market impacts. Second, the price movements in the EUA and sCER futures markets are primarily caused by the long-term impact, while the short-term impact can only explain a small fraction. Finally, the long-term (short-term) effect on EUA prices is statistically uncorrelated with the short-term (long-term) effect of sCER prices, and there is a medium or strong lead-and-lag correlation between the EUA and sCER price components with the same time scales. These results may provide some important insights of price forecast and arbitraging activities for carbon futures market investors, analysts and regulators.

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

PubMed

Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

2009-03-01

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Increasing Competition for Spares within AFLC (Air Force Logistics Center). Revision.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-30

Managers 45 On Competing the Production of Weapon Systems 46 Sole Source and Competitive Price Trends in Spare Parts Acquisition 47 Controlled...future directions in research and policy . 3- TOPIC: Acquisition TYPE: AFIT Thesis TITLE: Spares Acquisition Integrated with Production and Its...evaluate Air Force management policies , procedures, practices, and controls over the acquisition and pricing of spare parts. Specific objectives

The future of rare earth elements—will these high-tech industry elements continue in short supply?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Keith R.

2011-01-01

* REE will continue to find increasing use due to their unique properties. * There is a realistic possibility around 2015-2016 of sufficient REE capacity to meet demand under conditions of healthy price competition. * REE supplies will be tight and prices high for a few years. * There is significant downside risk that newly developed mines will not perform as planned.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-07-01

Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-01-01

Recent price spikes1,2 have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades3,4. However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors5,6, which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change. PMID:23243468

Cigarette tax and public health: what are the implications of financially stressed smokers for the effects of price increases on smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Martire, Kristy A; Mattick, Richard P; Doran, Christopher M; Hall, Wayne D

2011-03-01

This paper models the predicted impact of tobacco price increases proposed in the United States and Australia during 2009 on smoking prevalence in 2010 while taking account of the effects of financial stress among smokers on cessation rates. Two models of smoking prevalence were developed for each country. In model 1, prevalence rates were determined by price elasticity estimates. In model 2 price elasticity was moderated by financial stress. Each model was used to estimate smoking prevalence in 2010 in Australia and the United States. Proposed price increases resulted in a 1.89% and 7.84% decrease in smoking participation among low socio-economic status (SES) groups in the United States and Australia, respectively. Model 1 overestimated the number of individuals expected to quit in both the United States (0.13% of smokers) and Australia (0.36% of smokers) by failing to take account of the differential effects of the tax on financially stressed smokers. The proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress increased in both countries in 2010 (by 1.06% in the United States and 3.75% in Australia). The inclusion of financial stress when modelling the impact of price on smoking prevalence suggests that the population health returns of increased cigarette price will diminish over time. As it is likely that the proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress will also increase in 2010, future population-based approaches to reducing smoking will need to address this factor. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2015-12-01

In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003more » and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.« less

Estimating the future agriculture freight transportation network needs due to climate change using remote sensing and regional climate models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

A reoccurring challenge with increasing fuel prices is optimization of multi- and inter-modal freight transport to move products most efficiently. Projections for the future of agriculture in the United States (U.S.) combined with regional climate mo...

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Mid-Term Prospects for Natural Gas Supply

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

This service report describes the recent behavior of natural gas markets with respect to natural gas prices, their potential future behavior, the potential future supply contribution of liquefied natural gas and increased access to federally restricted resources, and the need for improved natural gas data.

Price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer: findings from a US pilot study.

PubMed

French, Michael Thomas; Browntaylor, Didra; Bluthenthal, Ricky Neville

2006-05-01

Our objective is to estimate the relative price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer (MLB), regular beer, hard liquor, and a combined group of all other alcoholic beverages. Three hundred and twenty-nine alcohol consumers (mostly male) in South-Central Los Angeles answered a series of questions pertaining to expected consumption responses to hypothetical price increases. We found that based on a 10% price increase, the mean price elasticity of demand (% change in quantity demanded / % change in price) was -0.79 for MLB drinkers, -1.14 for regular beer drinkers, -1.11 for hard liquor drinkers, and -1.69 for the combined group of all other drinkers. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the personal characteristics significantly related to being a MLB drinker were older age, not working, being homeless, and a daily drinker. Daily (or nearly daily) drinkers were more likely to be married, earning lower incomes, and hard liquor drinkers. This study is the first to investigate the price elasticity of demand for MLB drinkers and other heavy alcohol consumers in poor urban neighborhoods of the US. Future research can use the methods from this pilot study to more rigorously examine and compare the price sensitivity among heavy drinking groups.

The future viability of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties.

PubMed

Brownbridge, George; Azadi, Pooya; Smallbone, Andrew; Bhave, Amit; Taylor, Benjamin; Kraft, Markus

2014-01-01

This study presents a techno-economic assessment of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties associated with the development of algal biorefineries. A global sensitivity analysis was performed using a High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) method. It was found that, considering reasonable ranges over which each parameter can vary, the sensitivity of the biodiesel production cost to the key input parameters decreases in the following order: algae oil content>algae annual productivity per unit area>plant production capacity>carbon price increase rate. It was also found that the Return on Investment (ROI) is highly sensitive to the algae oil content, and to a lesser extent to the algae annual productivity, crude oil price and price increase rate, plant production capacity, and carbon price increase rate. For a large scale plant (100,000 tonnes of biodiesel per year) the production cost of biodiesel is likely to be £0.8-1.6 per kg. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal order policy in response to announced price increase for deteriorating items with limited special order quantity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Liang-Yuh; Wu, Kun-Shan; Yang, Chih-Te; Yen, Hsiu-Feng

2016-02-01

When a supplier announces an impending price increase due to take effect at a certain time in the future, it is important for each retailer to decide whether to purchase additional stock to take advantage of the present lower price. This study explores the possible effects of price increases on a retailer's replenishment policy when the special order quantity is limited and the rate of deterioration of the goods is assumed to be constant. The two situations discussed in this study are as follows: (1) when the special order time coincides with the retailer's replenishment time and (2) when the special order time occurs during the retailer's sales period. By analysing the total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity, the optimal order policy for each situation can be determined. We provide several numerical examples to illustrate the theories in practice. Additionally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis on the optimal solution with respect to the main parameters.

Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

Strategies for increasing fruit and vegetable intake in grocery stores and communities: policy, pricing, and environmental change.

PubMed

Glanz, Karen; Yaroch, Amy L

2004-09-01

Grocery stores and community settings are important and promising venues for environmental, policy, and pricing initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable intake. This article examines supermarket-based and community environmental, policy, and pricing strategies for increasing intake of fruits and vegetables and identifies promising strategies, research needs, and innovative opportunities for the future. The strategies, examples, and research reported here were identified through an extensive search of published journal articles, reports, and inquiries to leaders in the field. Recommendations were expanded with input from participants in the CDC/ACS-sponsored Fruit and Vegetable, Environment Policy and Pricing Workshop held in September of 2002. Four key types of grocery-store-based interventions include point-of-purchase (POP) information; reduced prices and coupons; increased availability, variety, and convenience; and promotion and advertising. There is strong support for the feasibility of these approaches and modest evidence of their efficacy in influencing eating behavior. Church-based programs, child care center policies, and multisectoral community approaches show promise. Both descriptive and intervention research are needed to develop and evaluate more effective environmental strategies to increase F&V intake in grocery stores and communities. Innovative strategies, partnerships, grass roots action involving economic development for low-income communities, and sustainability are important considerations.

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Weapon Acquisition Program Outcomes and Efforts to Reform DOD’s Acquisition Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-09

portfolio’s total estimated acquisition cost. 11. The equity prices of contractors delivering the ten costliest programs performed well relative to broad...cost growth. • In a constrained funding environment, unforeseen cost increases limit investment choices. The equity prices of the contractors ...remain profitable well into the future • Five publicly-traded defense contractors are developing and delivering the ten largest DOD programs in the 2015

Periodicals Price Survey 2002: Doing the Digital Flip.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Orsdel, Lee; Born, Kathleen

2002-01-01

Presents the annual periodicals price study. Highlights include average prices; cost histories; cost projections for future budgeting; electronic journal issues; flip pricing, defined as online access at the core of pricing negotiations; various pricing models; purchasing print at deeply discounted prices; and current trends in pricing and in the…

Study on Bidding Strategy and Market Clearing Price in Electric Power Day-ahead Market using Market Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Tetsuo; Kadoya, Toshihisa

In an electric power day-ahead market, market prices are not always cleared at marginal cost caused by the strategic bidding of generators. This paper presents the results of day-ahead market simulation that analyzes profits depending upon bidding strategies in an electric power day-ahead market. It is clarified that MCP (Market Clearing Price) is easily managed by only one player and does not easily decline after it has gone up once. Moreover the mutual interference among day-ahead markets, future markets, increase of generators, etc. are also discussed.

Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingshu; Everson, Mark P; Wallington, Timothy J; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E

2016-07-19

Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as "critical materials". Studies of future PGM flows have focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators. We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately 45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles. The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately, automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals. As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some of this growing demand.

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or 'NEMS' model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or “NEMS” model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. Lastly, we explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE PAGES

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances; ...

2017-11-01

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or 'NEMS' model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE PAGES

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances; ...

2017-09-07

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or “NEMS” model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. Lastly, we explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D; Chaloupka, Frank J

2018-05-01

We estimated associations between e-cigarette prices (both disposable and refill) and e-cigarette use among middle and high-school students in the United States. We also estimated associations between cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. We used regression models to estimate the associations between e-cigarette and cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. In our regression models, we exploited changes in e-cigarette and cigarette prices across four periods of time and across 50 markets. We report the associations as price elasticities. In our primary model, we controlled for socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette prices, tobacco control policies, market fixed effects and year-quarter fixed effects. United States of America. A total of 24 370 middle- and high-school students participating in the Monitoring the Future Survey in years 2014 and 2015. Self-reported e-cigarette use over the last 30 days. Average quarterly cigarette prices, e-cigarette disposable prices and e-cigarette refill prices were constructed from Nielsen retail data (inclusive of excise taxes) for 50 US markets. In a model with market fixed effects, we estimated that a 10% increase in e-cigarette disposable prices is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping among e-cigarette users by approximately 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -17.7 to 1.8%; P = 0.02] and is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping by the full sample by approximately 17.9% (95% CI = -31.5 to -4.2%; P = 0.01). Refill e-cigarette prices were not statistically significant predictors of vaping. Cigarette prices were not associated significantly with e-cigarette use regardless of the e-cigarette price used. However, in a model without market fixed effects, cigarette prices were a statistically significant positive predictor of total e-cigarette use. Higher e-cigarette disposable prices appear to be associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adolescents in the US. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Economic drivers of mineral supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Lorie A.; Sullivan, Daniel E.; Sznopek, John L.

2003-01-01

The debate over the adequacy of future supplies of mineral resources continues in light of the growing use of mineral-based materials in the United States. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the quantity of new materials utilized each year has dramatically increased from 161 million tons2 in 1900 to 3.2 billion tons in 2000. Of all the materials used during the 20th century in the United States, more than half were used in the last 25 years. With the Earth?s endowment of natural resources remaining constant, and increased demand for resources, economic theory states that as depletion approaches, prices rise. This study shows that many economic drivers (conditions that create an economic incentive for producers to act in a particular way) such as the impact of globalization, technological improvements, productivity increases, and efficient materials usage are at work simultaneously to impact minerals markets and supply. As a result of these economic drivers, the historical price trend of mineral prices3 in constant dollars has declined as demand has risen. When price is measured by the cost in human effort, the price trend also has been almost steadily downward. Although the United States economy continues its increasing mineral consumption trend, the supply of minerals has been able to keep pace. This study shows that in general supply has grown faster than demand, causing a declining trend in mineral prices.

Behavior analysis in consumer affairs: Retail and consumer response to publicizing food price information

PubMed Central

Greene, Brandon F.; Rouse, Mark; Green, Richard B.; Clay, Connie

1984-01-01

A popular program among consumer action groups involves publicizing comparative food price information (CFPI) gathered from retail stores. Its significance is based on the assumption that publishing CFPI maximizes retail competition (i.e., moderates price levels or price increases) and occasions more frugal store selections among consumers. We tested these assumptions during a 2-year analysis. Specifically, we monitored the prices of two distinct market baskets in the supermarkets of two midwestern cities (target and contrast cities). Following a lengthy baseline, we published the prices of only one of the market baskets at stores in the target city in the local newspaper on five different occasions. The results suggested that reductions in price inflation occurred for both market baskets at the independently operated target stores. The corporate chain stores were not similarly affected. In addition, surveys indicated that many consumers used the CFPI as a basis for store selection. Finally, the analysis included a discussion of the politics, economics, and future of CFPI programs. PMID:16795672

Smoking-related changes or brand switching? Smokers' anticipated responses to a large increase in Taiwan's Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge.

PubMed

Yeh, C-Y; Schafferer, C; Lee, J-M; Hsieh, C-J

2016-07-01

This study examines the impact on smokers' behaviour of a planned increase in the Health and Welfare Surcharge of Tobacco Products in Taiwan. This study used a structured questionnaire to perform telephone interviews. Stratified random sampling was applied to interview current smokers aged 18-65 years in Taiwan. Based on nationwide survey data of smokers' responses to future increases in cigarette prices, this study used multinomial logistic regression to perform its analyses. After the proposed increase in the Health and Welfare Surcharge of Tobacco Products, subsequent cigarette price increases would motivate nearly 30% of the smokers to adopt smoking-related changes and 10% to change to lower-priced brands. The study suggests that a large increase in the Health and Welfare Surcharge of Tobacco Products would lead to considerable changes in smoking behaviour, which in turn would increase cessation rate at the population level. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to prevent the next Marathon Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

David, Frank S; Dixit, Richa

2018-01-01

In recent years, several drug companies have exploited U.S. regulatory policies to acquire exclusive rights to cheap therapies and substantially raise their prices, and Federal agencies and state governments are exploring various ways to prevent or punish such behavior in the future. Among these cases, however, Marathon Pharmaceuticals' handling of Emflaza (deflazacort) is unique, because the drug was previously only available abroad, and was never previously sold in the U.S. before the company obtained FDA approval for it. Thus, laws and policies designed to address price hikes on already-marketed drugs are unlikely to prevent additional Marathon-like scenarios. In this article, we describe in more detail the unique features of Emflaza compared with these other recent cases of drug price increases, determine the likelihood that similar situations will arise in the future, and explore legislative and administrative options to specifically prevent such behavior.

Statistical regularities of Carbon emission trading market: Evidence from European Union allowances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zeyu; Xiao, Rui; Shi, Haibo; Li, Guihong; Zhou, Xiaofeng

2015-05-01

As an emerging financial market, the trading value of carbon emission trading market has definitely increased. In recent years, the carbon emission allowances have already become a way of investment. They are bought and sold not only by carbon emitters but also by investors. In this paper, we analyzed the price fluctuations of the European Union allowances (EUA) futures in European Climate Exchange (ECX) market from 2007 to 2011. The symmetric and power-law probability density function of return time series was displayed. We found that there are only short-range correlations in price changes (return), while long-range correlations in the absolute of price changes (volatility). Further, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) approach was applied with focus on long-range autocorrelations and Hurst exponent. We observed long-range power-law autocorrelations in the volatility that quantify risk, and found that they decay much more slowly than the autocorrelation of return time series. Our analysis also showed that the significant cross correlations exist between return time series of EUA and many other returns. These cross correlations exist in a wide range of fields, including stock markets, energy concerned commodities futures, and financial futures. The significant cross-correlations between energy concerned futures and EUA indicate the physical relationship between carbon emission and energy production process. Additionally, the cross-correlations between financial futures and EUA indicate that the speculation behavior may become an important factor that can affect the price of EUA. Finally we modeled the long-range volatility time series of EUA with a particular version of the GARCH process, and the result also suggests long-range volatility autocorrelations.

Residential water demand model under block rate pricing: A case study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Yang, Z. F.

2009-05-01

In many cities, the inconsistency between water supply and water demand has become a critical problem because of deteriorating water shortage and increasing water demand. Uniform price of residential water cannot promote the efficient water allocation. In China, block water price will be put into practice in the future, but the outcome of such regulation measure is unpredictable without theory support. In this paper, the residential water is classified by the volume of water usage based on economic rules and block water is considered as different kinds of goods. A model based on extended linear expenditure system (ELES) is constructed to simulate the relationship between block water price and water demand, which provide theoretical support for the decision-makers. Finally, the proposed model is used to simulate residential water demand under block rate pricing in Beijing.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

The impact of advertising on nicotine replacement therapy demand.

PubMed

Tauras, John A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Emery, Sherry

2005-05-01

While much is known about the economic determinants of tobacco use, very little is known about the economic determinants of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) use. This paper is the first econometric study to examine the impact of advertising on NRT demand. Pooled cross-sectional time-series scanner-based data for 50 major metropolitan markets in the USA covering the period between the second quarter of 1996 and the second quarter of 2002 are used in the analysis. Fixed-effects modeling is employed to estimate the NRT demand equation. The estimates indicate that increased advertising of Nicoderm CQ transdermal patches and Nicotrol transdermal patches increases per-capita sales of established Nicoderm CQ and Nicotrol products, respectively. However, increased advertising of Nicorette polacrilex (gum) was found not to significantly increase sales of established Nicorette products. Moreover, decreases in the price of NRT and increases in the price of cigarettes were found to increase per-capita sales of NRT products. Given the documented efficacy of NRT, measures to increase peoples' awareness of NRT products through advertising, measures to decrease the price of NRT, and measures to increase the price of cigarettes would be effective means to increase the use of NRT, likely leading to decreased cigarette smoking and reductions in the future public health burden caused by tobacco use.

48 CFR 12.207 - Contract type.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... contracts or fixed-price contracts with economic price adjustment for the acquisition of commercial items... fixed-price with economic price adjustment contracts (e.g., by limiting the value or length of the time... maximize the use of firm-fixed-price or fixed-price with economic price adjustment contracts on future...

Evidence of infinite and finite jump processes in commodity futures prices: Crude oil and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Wenbin; Guernsey, Scott B.; Linn, Scott C.

2018-07-01

We examine the frequency and character of price jumps in front month oil and natural gas futures prices. Prices are sampled every five seconds over the period 2006-2014. Our test results indicate that jumps in crude oil and natural gas futures prices can be decomposed into an infinite activity jump diffusion process and a less frequent but larger jump process. We also find that we cannot reject the hypothesis that Brownian motion is also present in both return series. The results are based on a battery of tests that are "model free". We further find that jumps account for respectively 36 and 41 percent of the realized variances of the crude oil and the natural gas returns.

Examining the Influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women.

PubMed

McGuirt, Jared T; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W; Keyserling, Thomas C; Ammerman, Alice S

2014-01-01

To examine the influence of farmers' market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets, among low-income women. Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers' markets given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Eastern North Carolina. A total of 37 low-income women of childbearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Willingness to shop at a farmers' market. Fisher's exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers' markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based on a positive deviance framework. Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers' market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than a quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Future farmers' market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. Copyright © 2014 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women

PubMed Central

McGuirt, Jared T.; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B.; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W.; Keyserling, Thomas C.; Ammerman, Alice S.

2013-01-01

Objective: To examine the influence of farmers’ market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets, among low-income women. Design: Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers’ market given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Setting: Eastern North Carolina. Participants: Thirty seven low-income women of child-bearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Phenomenon of Interest: Willingness to shop at a farmers’ market. Analysis: Fisher’s exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers’ markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based upon a positive deviance framework. Results: Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers’ market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than the quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Conclusions and Implications: Future farmers’ market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. PMID:24201077

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Cole, Wesley; Lantz, Eric

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gasmore » prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.« less

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

PubMed

Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

2013-01-01

Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

A CLIMATE-RESPONSIVE ADAPTIVE CONTROL FOR A COMBINATION PASSIVE SOLAR SHADING AND NATURAL VENTILATION

EPA Science Inventory

Currently, nations around the globe are facing striking concerns regarding energy consumption. In the United States, we face increasing demands that will cause increasing fuel prices thus ultimately higher-energy cost. The future could be eased by reduce energy consumption ...

Introducing taxes, subsidies or both: the effects of various food pricing strategies in a web-based supermarket randomized trial.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; de Boer, Michiel R; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C

2012-05-01

Fiscal policies may form a solution in improving dietary intake. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of varying taxing and subsiding schemes to stimulate healthier food purchases. A randomized controlled trial with three levels of price reduction on healthy foods (no; 25%; 50%)×three levels of price increase on unhealthy foods (5%; 10%; 25%) factorial design was used. 150 participants were randomized into one of nine conditions and were asked to purchase groceries at a web-based supermarket. Data were collected in the Netherlands in January-February 2010 and analyzed using analysis of covariance. Subjects receiving 50% discount purchased significantly more healthy foods than subjects receiving no (mean difference=6.62 items, p<0.01) or 25% discount (mean difference=4.87 items, p<0.05). Moreover, these subjects purchased more vegetables (mean difference=821 g;p<0.05 compared to no discount). However, participants with the highest discount also purchased significantly more calories. No significant effects of the price increases on unhealthy foods were found. Price decreases are effective in stimulating healthy food purchases, but the proportion of healthy foods remains unaffected. Price increases up to 25% on unhealthier products do not significantly affect food purchases. Future studies are important to validate these results in real supermarkets and across different countries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of residential PV adoption on Retail Electricity Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, DWH; Adlakha, S; Low, SH

2013-11-01

The price of electricity supplied from home rooftop photo voltaic (PV) solar cells has fallen below the retail price of grid electricity in some areas. A number of residential households have an economic incentive to install rooftop PV systems and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. A significant portion of the costs incurred by utility companies are fixed costs which must be recovered even as consumption falls. Electricity rates must increase in order for utility companies to recover fixed costs from shrinking sales bases. Increasing rates will, in turn, result in even more economic incentives for customers tomore » adopt rooftop PV. In this paper, we model this feedback between PV adoption and electricity rates and study its impact on future PV penetration and net-metering costs. We find that the most important parameter that determines whether this feedback has an effect is the fraction of customers who adopt PV in any year based solely on the money saved by doing so in that year, independent of the uncertainties of future years. These uncertainties include possible changes in rate structures such as the introduction of connection charges, the possibility of PV prices dropping significantly in the future, possible changes in tax incentives, and confidence in the reliability and maintainability of PV. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Generalization of Faustmann's Formula for Stochastic Forest Growth and Prices with Markov Decision Process Models

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2001-01-01

Faustmann's formula gives the land value, or the forest value of land with trees, under deterministic assumptions regarding future stand growth and prices, over an infinite horizon. Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's approach by recognizing that future stand states and prices are known only as probabilistic distributions. The...

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

The effects of perceived quality on the behavioural economics of alcohol, amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and ecstasy purchases.

PubMed

Cole, Jon C; Goudie, Andrew J; Field, Matt; Loverseed, Anne-Claire; Charlton, Sarah; Sumnall, Harry R

2008-04-01

Previous research has indicated that non-dependent polydrug users are willing to pay more money to buy good quality drugs as their income increased. This study sought to examine whether altering the perceived quality of controlled drugs would affect drug purchases if the monetary price remained fixed. A random sample of 80 polydrug users were recruited. All participants were administered an anonymous questionnaire consisting of the Drug Abuse Screening Test for Adolescents (DAST-A), the Severity of Dependence Scale for cannabis (SDS), the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and questions about their drug use. Participants then completed a simulation of controlled drug purchases where the price of alcohol, amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and ecstasy remained the same but their perceived quality changed (i.e. unit price increased as the perceived quality decreased). The demand for alcohol was quality inelastic and alcohol quality had no effects on the purchase of any other controlled drug. Demand for cannabis was quality elastic and alcohol substituted for cannabis as its unit price increased. Demand for cocaine was quality elastic and alcohol, cannabis, and ecstasy substituted for cocaine as its unit price increased. Demand for ecstasy was quality elastic and alcohol and cocaine both substituted for ecstasy as its unit price increased. These results suggest that perceived quality influences the demand for controlled drugs and that monitoring the perceived quality of controlled drugs may provide a warning of potential public health problems in the near future.

UNDERSTANDING THE VECTOR IN ORDER TO PLAN EFFECTIVE TOBACCO CONTROL POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF CONTEMPORARY TOBACCO INDUSTRY MATERIALS

PubMed Central

Gilmore, Anna B

2013-01-01

Background This paper builds on tobacco document research by analysing contemporary materials to explore how the global tobacco market has changed, how transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) are responding and identify the implications for tobacco control. Methods Analysis of a variety of materials including tobacco company annual reports, investor relations materials, financial analyst reports, market research reports and data. Findings Once China, where TTCs have little market share, is excluded, global cigarette volumes are already declining. Nevertheless, industry profits continue to increase. This pattern is explained by TTCs’ pricing power - their ability to increase prices faster than volumes fall; a consequence of market failure. Pricing power is now fundamental to the TTCs’ long-term future. Consequently, and in light of growing regulations, the TTCs’ business model is changing. Product innovation is now a key marketing technique used to drive consumers to buy more expensive (ie profitable) premium cigarettes. Contrary to established wisdom, high tobacco excise rates, particularly where increases in excise are gradual, can benefit TTCs by enabling price (profit) increases to be disguised. Large intermittent tax increases likely have a greater public health benefit. TTC investments in smokeless appear designed to eliminate competition between smokeless and cigarettes, thereby increasing TTCs’ pricing power while enabling them to harness the rhetoric of harm reduction. Conclusions Monitoring TTCs can inform effective policy development. The TTC’s value maximising approach suggests that a ban on product innovation and more informed tobacco excise policies are needed. PMID:22345234

Online 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Morris

This paper examines the co-existence of online and CD-ROM technologies in terms of their existing pricing structures, marketing strategies, functionality, and future roles. "Fixed Price Unlimited Usage" (FPUU) pricing and flat-rate pricing are discussed as viable alternatives to current pricing practices. In addition, it is argued that the…

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement April 2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Access to fast food and food prices: relationship with fruit and vegetable consumption and overweight among adolescents.

PubMed

Powell, Lisa M; Auld, M Christopher; Chaloupka, Frank J; O'Malley, Patrick M; Johnston, Lloyd D

2007-01-01

We examine the extent to which food prices and restaurant outlet density are associated with adolescent fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index (BMI), and the probability of overweight. We use repeated cross-sections of individual-level data on adolescents from the Monitoring the Future Surveys from 1997 to 2003 combined with fast food and fruit and vegetable prices obtained from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association and fast food and full-service restaurant outlet density measures obtained from Dun & Bradstreet. The results suggest that the price of a fast food meal is an important determinant of adolescents' body weight and eating habits: a 10% increase in the price of a fast food meal leads to a 3.0% increase in the probability of frequent fruit and vegetable consumption, a 0.4% decrease in BMI, and a 5.9% decrease in probability of overweight. The price of fruits and vegetables and restaurant outlet density are less important determinants, although these variables typically have the expected sign and are often statistically associated with our outcome measures. Despite these findings, changes in all observed economic and socio-demographic characteristics together only explain roughly one-quarter of the change in mean BMI and one-fifth of the change in overweight over the 1997-2003 sampling period.

[Health care financing: is it enough and appropriate?].

PubMed

Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2006-03-01

The object of this short paper is to present the results of Spanish public health care expenditures projections until 2013 according to the expected impact of the main demographic and technological health cost drivers. Future annual health expenditures are estimated using a simple method based on the decomposition of the past main growth factors in two scenarios. The main cost drivers considered were the following: demography, which includes the increasing number of people and the impact of population ageing; the increase in the price of health care inputs above the general price level; and the impact of changes in medical practice related with expanding medical technology. In 2013, public health care expenditure may be around 5.7% and 6% of gross domestic product (GDP); that is, at least, between 0.24 and 0.53 additional GDP points will be spent on public health care. The main factor responsible for the future expenditure increase will continue to be the increase in the average health service intensity, followed by demographic factors. In the base-case scenario, public expenditure increase until 2013 will be compatible with a real 2.5% annual increase in consumption of non-health goods and services. In order to finance the future costs, the Spanish population will have to devote to public health expenditure less than 7% of income increase until 2013. Despite being important, the expected Spanish GDP growth until 2013 may be enough to finance the increase in public health expenditure as a result of the impact of demographic changes. Expanding medical technology is expected to continue being the main driver of future costs.

The effect of alcohol price on dependent drinkers' alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Falkner, Carolyn; Christie, Grant; Zhou, Lifeng; King, Julian

2015-12-18

To investigate the current purchasing behaviours of a group of dependent drinkers and their potential response to future increases in the price of alcohol. 115 clients undergoing medical detoxification completed an anonymous survey about their daily alcohol consumption, its cost, their response to potential price increases and strategies previously used when unable to afford alcohol. Mean and median number of standard drinks consumed per day was 24, at a median cost of $25 NZD (95%CI $22, $30). Thirty-six per cent (95%CI 26%, 46%) of the group bought alcohol at $1 or less per standard drink, and the median number of drinks consumed per day (30) by this group was significantly higher (p=0.0028) than the rest of the sample (22.5). The most common strategy used if no money was available to purchase alcohol was to forgo essentials. If facing a potential price rise, 77% (95%CI 69%, 85%) would switch wholly or partially to a cheaper product and 13% (95%CI 8%, 21%) would cut down their drinking. Although the majority of our group would be financially impacted by an increase in the minimum price per standard drink, any potential impacts would be most significant in those buying the cheapest alcohol (who also drink the most), suggesting that minimum pricing may be an important harm minimisation strategy in this group. A minimum price per standard drink would limit the possibility of switching to an alternate cheaper product and likely result in an overall reduction in alcohol consumption in this group. Stealing alcohol, or the use of non-beverage alcohol, were seldom reported as previous strategies used in response to unaffordable alcohol and fears of such are not valid reasons for rejecting minimum pricing to reduce general population consumption.

Economists' perspectives on health care delivery in California as of 1995.

PubMed Central

Singer, S J

1998-01-01

The health care delivery system is made up of providers--hospitals and doctors--increasingly organized into medical groups. Medical groups interact with payors, primarily health maintenance organizations, that increasingly pass through both risk and prices from increasingly demanding purchasers. This article summarizes the present and future prospects for each of these groups. PMID:9614794

An analysis of the impact of Renewable Portfolio Standards on residential electricity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Andrew James

A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become a popular policy for states seeking to increase the amount of renewable energy generated for consumers of electricity. The success of these state programs has prompted debate about the viability of a national RPS. The impact that these state level policies have had on the price consumers pay for electricity is the subject of some debate. Several federal organizations have conducted studies of the impact that a national RPS would have on electricity prices paid by consumers. NREL and US EIA utilize models that analyze the inputs in electricity generation to examine the future price impact of changes to electricity generation and show marginal increases in prices paid by end users. Other empirical research has produced similar results, showing that the existence of an RPS increases the price of electricity. These studies miss important aspects of RPS policies that may change how we view these price increases from RPS policies. By examining the previous empirical research on RPS policies, this study seeks to identify the controls necessary to build an effective model. These controls are utilized in a fixed effects model that seeks to show how the controls and variables of interest impact electricity prices paid by residential consumers of electricity. This study utilizes a panel data set from 1990 to 2014 to analyze the impact of these policies controlling for generating capacity, the regulatory status of utilities in each state, demographic characteristics of the states, and fuel prices. The results of the regressions indicate that prices are likely to be higher in states that have an RPS compared to states that do not have such a policy. Several of the characteristics mentioned above have price impacts, and so discussing RPS policies in the context of other factors that contribute to electricity prices is essential. In particular, the regulatory status of utilities in each state is an important determinate of price as well as the amount of renewable energy generated in each state. There are several implications of this analysis that are relevant for policy makers who seek to gain the environmental benefits of these policies, but who are also concerned with the costs those polices may impose on consumers of electricity. First, allowing utilities as much time as possible to comply with the mandates of the RPS will mitigate the price increases associated with implementation of and compliance with the policy. Secondly, policy makers need not fear imposing high targets for their RPS as this is not associated with higher electricity prices. Finally, policy makers should be concerned with the bindingness of the policies they impose. States with non-binding policies tend to have higher electricity prices, likely due to the costs of early compliance. As such imposing interim targets may raise rates more than simply allowing compliance at a pace utilities can bear without substantially increasing prices.

Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

2011-12-01

In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US c. Computable General Equilibrium economic model that uses the results of the two above as inputs, to predict commodity prices under alternative energy price scenarios We start with the high resolution projections on temperature and precipitation for US corn-belt for years 2020-2040. A modified version of statistical relationship estimated by Schlenker and Roberts, is used to translate climate variables' change into yield changes for each. Shocks are sampled from this distribution to decipher the corresponding volatility in commodity prices. All else constant, the increased supply side variability should result in increased price volatility; high oil prices however give markets an incentive to produce more than 15bn gallons ethanol a year (non-binding RFS) and part of supply fluctuation in crop production can be borne by ethanol production and impact of climate change on crop prices would be less dramatic than it would have been if the entire adjustment was to come through non-ethanol usage. So impact of climate change clearly depends on energy markets and policy decisions and results should provide insights into impact of climate change on agricultural prices under different energy market scenarios.

Variation in Prices of Cardiovascular Drugs in Public and Private Pharmacies in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kandel, Nirajan; Subedi, Narayan; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-01-01

Introduction: Higher price of cardiovascular drugs is one of the reasons for high out-of-pocket expenditure in cardiovascular care. The objective of the study was to determine the price variation in commonly available cardiovascular drugs between public and private hospital pharmacies in Nepal. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 3 public and 3 private pharmacies in tertiary-level hospitals in Nepal. The price was recorded for the list of drugs commonly available in those pharmacies. A total of 23 drugs were selected for data collection. The price was recorded based on the payment receipt and price reported by surrogate customers. We defined the price variation as the difference between price of cardiovascular drugs between public hospital and private pharmacy. The price variation was expressed as percentage. Results: Price of Amlodipine 5 mg was higher by 667% in private pharmacy nearby Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH) compared to that of TUTH pharmacy. Price of Enalapril 5 mg was higher by 14.47% in Manmohan Cardio Thoracic and Vascular Transplant Centre (MCVTC) compared to nearby private pharmacy. We observed that the price of cardiovascular drugs varied significantly between hospital and private retail pharmacies in TUTH (P < .001) and MCVTC (P < .001). Conclusion: For most of the cardiovascular drugs, the price in private retail pharmacies were significantly higher than in hospital pharmacies. Future steps should be taken to establish and run own pharmacies in hospitals which would reduce the cost of medicine and thereby, increase access to medicine. PMID:28462249

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: A behavioral economics approach

PubMed Central

Smith, Tracy T.; Sved, Alan F.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Donny, Eric C.

2015-01-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price = cost / reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking—an assumption made by the unit price approach. PMID:25025523

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: a behavioral economics approach.

PubMed

Smith, Tracy T; Sved, Alan F; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Donny, Eric C

2014-11-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price=cost/reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking-an assumption made by the unit price approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Alpine hydropower in a low carbon economy: Assessing the local implication of global policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

In the global transition towards a more efficient and low-carbon economy, renewable energy plays a major role in displacing fossil fuels, meeting global energy demand while reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In Europe, Variable Renewable Sources (VRS), such as wind and solar power sources, are becoming a relevant share of the generation portfolios in many countries. Beside the indisputable social and environmental advantages of VRS, on the short medium term the VRS-induced lowering energy prices and increasing price's volatility might challenge traditional power sources and, among them, hydropower production, because of smaller incomes and higher maintenance costs associated to a more flexible operation of power systems. In this study, we focus on the Swiss hydropower sector analysing how different low-carbon targets and strategies established at the Swiss and European level might affect energy price formation and thus impact - through hydropower operation - water availability and ecosystems services at the catchment scale. We combine a hydrological model to simulate future water availability and an electricity market model to simulate future evolution of energy prices based on official Swiss and European energy roadmaps and CO2 price trends in the European Union. We use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design alternative hydropower reservoir operation strategies, aiming to maximise the hydropower companies' income or to provide reliable energy supply with respect to the energy demand. This integrated model allows analysing to which extent global low-carbon policies impact reservoir operation at the local scale, and to gain insight on how to prioritise compensation measures and/or adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of VRS on hydropower companies in increasingly water constrained settings. Numerical results are shown for a real-world case study in the Swiss Alps.

The Intrusion of Human Population into Forest and Range Lands of California

Treesearch

Ted D. Bradshaw

1987-01-01

Demographic and economic growth are pushing deeper into California's forest and range lands, making effective fire protection and traditional industrial uses of the land more difficult. Urban forces that will increase the difficulties in the future include: increasing urban population pressures, selective migration, low-priced housing, adequate infrastructure,...

Economic Perspectives on Organic Grains: Past, Present, and Future

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The organic food industry has seen tremendous growth over the past decade. This growth has led to an increase in demand for organic grains, and has been accompanied by an increase in the number of organic farms and an expansion in organic grain acreage in the U.S. Through this period, price premium...

Neural basis of economic bubble behavior.

PubMed

Ogawa, A; Onozaki, T; Mizuno, T; Asamizuya, T; Ueno, K; Cheng, K; Iriki, A

2014-04-18

Throughout human history, economic bubbles have formed and burst. As a bubble grows, microeconomic behavior ceases to be constrained by realistic predictions. This contradicts the basic assumption of economics that agents have rational expectations. To examine the neural basis of behavior during bubbles, we performed functional magnetic resonance imaging while participants traded shares in a virtual stock exchange with two non-bubble stocks and one bubble stock. The price was largely deflected from the fair price in one of the non-bubble stocks, but not in the other. Their fair prices were specified. The price of the bubble stock showed a large increase and battering, as based on a real stock-market bust. The imaging results revealed modulation of the brain circuits that regulate trade behavior under different market conditions. The premotor cortex was activated only under a market condition in which the price was largely deflected from the fair price specified. During the bubble, brain regions associated with the cognitive processing that supports order decisions were identified. The asset preference that might bias the decision was associated with the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). The activity of the inferior parietal lobule (IPL) was correlated with the score of future time perspective, which would bias the estimation of future price. These regions were deemed to form a distinctive network during the bubble. A functional connectivity analysis showed that the connectivity between the DLPFC and the IPL was predominant compared with other connectivities only during the bubble. These findings indicate that uncertain and unstable market conditions changed brain modes in traders. These brain mechanisms might lead to a loss of control caused by wishful thinking, and to microeconomic bubbles that expand, on the macroscopic scale, toward bust. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in beverage prices following the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Barbados.

PubMed

Alvarado, Miriam; Kostova, Deliana; Suhrcke, Marc; Hambleton, Ian; Hassell, Trevor; Samuels, T Alafia; Adams, Jean; Unwin, Nigel

2017-12-01

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014-2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to <1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing.

PubMed

Moreno, Santiago G; Ray, Joshua A

2016-01-01

The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the 'value of innovation' reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing

PubMed Central

Moreno, Santiago G.; Ray, Joshua A.

2016-01-01

Objective The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the ‘value of innovation’ reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. Method The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). Results The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. Conclusion We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers. PMID:27123192

Understanding the vector in order to plan effective tobacco control policies: an analysis of contemporary tobacco industry materials.

PubMed

Gilmore, Anna B

2012-03-01

This paper builds on tobacco document research by analysing contemporary materials to explore how the global tobacco market has changed, how transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) are responding and the implications for tobacco control. The methods involved analysis of a variety of materials, including tobacco company annual reports, investor relations materials, financial analyst reports, market research reports and data. Once China, where TTCs have little market share, is excluded, global cigarette volumes are already declining. Nevertheless, industry profits continue to increase. This pattern is explained by the pricing power of TTCs-their ability to increase prices faster than volumes fall, a consequence of market failure. Pricing power is now fundamental to the long term future of TTCs. Consequently, and in light of growing regulations, the business model of the TTCs is changing. Product innovation is now a key marketing technique used to drive consumers to buy more expensive (ie, profitable) premium cigarettes. Contrary to established wisdom, high tobacco excise rates, particularly where increases in excise are gradual, can benefit TTCs by enabling price (profit) increases to be disguised. Large intermittent tax increases likely have a greater public health benefit. TTC investments in smokeless tobacco appear designed to eliminate competition between smokeless tobacco and cigarettes, thereby increasing the pricing power of TTCs while enabling them to harness the rhetoric of harm reduction. Monitoring TTCs can inform effective policy development. The value maximising approach of TTCs suggests that a ban on product innovation and more informed tobacco excise policies are needed.

Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

24 CFR 1715.20 - Unlawful sales practices-regulatory provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... to deliver a Property Report to any person who exhibits an interest in buying or leasing a lot in the... represented future increase in value and the factual basis is certain, and; (3) The sales price of the offered...

Analysis of the influence of recent reforms in China: cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicines as a case history to provide future direction.

PubMed

Zeng, Wenjie; Zhen, Junjie; Feng, Mengying; Campbell, Stephen M; Finlayson, Alexander E; Godman, Brian

2014-07-01

Pharmaceutical expenditure has grown by 16% per annum in China, enhanced by incentives for physicians and hospitals. Hospital pharmacies dispense 80% of medicines in China, accounting for 46% of total hospital expenditure. Principal measures to moderate drug expenditure growth include pricing initiatives as limited demand-side measures. Assess current utilization and expenditure including traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs) between 2006 and 2012. Uncontrolled retrospective study of medicines to treat cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in one of the largest hospitals in southwest China. Utilization increased 3.3-fold for cerebrovascular medicines, greatest for TCMs, with expenditure increasing 4.85-fold. Low prices for generics were seen, similar to Europe. However, there was variable utilization of generics at 29-31% of total product volumes in recent years. There continued to be irrationality in prescribing with high use of TCMs, and the utilization of different medicines dropping significantly once they achieved low prices. Prices still have an appreciable impact on utilization in China. Potential measures similar to those implemented among western European countries could improve prescribing rationality and conserve resources.

Nonlinear Pricing in Drug Benefits and Medication Use: The Case of Statin Compliance in Medicare Part D

PubMed Central

Jung, Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger; McBean, A Marshall

2014-01-01

Objective To examine how enrollees' statin compliance responds to expected prices in Medicare Part D, which features a nonlinear price schedule due to a coverage gap. Data Sources/Study Setting Prescription Drug Event data for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan enrollees in 2008 who did not receive a low-income subsidy. Study Design We analyze statin compliance prior to the coverage gap, where the “effective price” is higher than the actual copayment for drugs because consumers anticipate that more spending will make them more likely to reach the gap. We construct each enrollee's effective price as her expected price at the end of the year, which is the weighted average between pre-gap and in-gap copayments with the weight being the predicted probability of hitting the gap. Compliance is defined as at least 80 percent of days covered. Principal Findings Part D enrollees' pre-gap statin compliance decreases by 3.7–4.7 percentage points for a $10 increase in the effective price. Conclusion The presence of a coverage gap decreases statin compliance prior to the gap, suggesting that incorporating expected future prices is important to assess the full impact of cost sharing on drug compliance under nonlinear price schedules. PMID:24354765

Effects of regulated competition on key outcomes of care: cataract surgeries in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Heijink, Richard; Mosca, Ilaria; Westert, Gert

2013-11-01

Similar to several other countries, the Netherlands implemented market-oriented health care reforms in recent years. Previous studies raised questions on the effects of these reforms on key outcomes such as quality, costs, and prices. The empirical evidence is up to now mixed. This study looked at the variation in prices, volume, and quality of cataract surgeries since the introduction of price competition in 2006. We found no price convergence over time and constant price differences between hospitals. Quality indicators generally showed positive results in cataract care, though the quality and scope of the indicators was suboptimal at this stage. Furthermore, we found limited between-hospital variation in quality and there was no clear-cut relation between prices and quality. Volume of cataract care strongly increased in the period studied. These findings indicate that health insurers may not have been able to drive prices down, make trade-offs between price and quality, and selectively contract health care without usable quality information. Positive results coming out from the 2006 reform should not be taken for granted. Looking forward, future research on similar topics and with newer data should clarify the extent to which these findings can be generalized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Spanish generic medicines retail market: recommendations to enhance long-term sustainability.

PubMed

Dylst, Pieter; Vulto, Arnold G; Simoens, Steven

2014-06-01

The use of generic medicines in Spain is traditionally low compared to other European countries, despite efforts of the Spanish government in the past. This paper provides a perspective on the Spanish generic medicines retail market and how the current policy environment may affect the long-term sustainability. The Spanish government's focus on prices of generic medicines (e.g., mandatory price cuts, reference price set at the lowest level) have made them amongst the lowest in Europe. In our opinion, this combination of continuous pressure on prices and limited diffusion of generic medicines may undermine the long-term sustainability of the Spanish generic medicines retail market. The unique experience in Spain shows the impact of demand-side policies on the use of generic medicines. Because a sustainable generic medicines retail market is important to maintain future competition in the off-patent medicines market, this perspective paper rounds off with recommendations to increase its sustainability.

Follow Your Heart: How Is Willingness to Pay Formed under Multiple Anchors?

PubMed Central

Lin, Chien-Huang; Chen, Ming

2017-01-01

In sales, a common promotional tactic is to supplement a required purchase (i.e., a focal product) by offering a free or discounted product (i.e., a supplementary product). The present research examines the contextual factors driving consumer evaluations of the supplementary product after the promotion has been terminated. Two experiments are used to demonstrate that consumers use multiple anchors to determine the value of a supplementary product. Consumers use other types of price information, such as the internal reference price (IRP), promotional price, and original price of the supplementary product, as anchors to adjust their willingness to pay. Among the multiple anchors, the consumer’s IRP is not only the crucial anchor to estimate the willingness to pay but also the criterion to determine whether other price information can serve as anchors. Price information, such as the promotional and original price of the supplementary product, which is higher (lower) than the IRP, will increase (decrease) the willingness to pay. However, these anchors are only employed when the price information is considered to be plausible. Assimilation and contrast effects occur when the IRP is used by consumers as a criterion to judge the reasonableness of other anchors. When the external price information belongs (does not belong) to consumers’ distribution of IRP, assimilation (contrast) effects occur, and consumers will regard the external reference price (ERP) to be a plausible (implausible) price. Limitations and future avenues for research are also discussed. PMID:29312098

Follow Your Heart: How Is Willingness to Pay Formed under Multiple Anchors?

PubMed

Lin, Chien-Huang; Chen, Ming

2017-01-01

In sales, a common promotional tactic is to supplement a required purchase (i.e., a focal product) by offering a free or discounted product (i.e., a supplementary product). The present research examines the contextual factors driving consumer evaluations of the supplementary product after the promotion has been terminated. Two experiments are used to demonstrate that consumers use multiple anchors to determine the value of a supplementary product. Consumers use other types of price information, such as the internal reference price (IRP), promotional price, and original price of the supplementary product, as anchors to adjust their willingness to pay. Among the multiple anchors, the consumer's IRP is not only the crucial anchor to estimate the willingness to pay but also the criterion to determine whether other price information can serve as anchors. Price information, such as the promotional and original price of the supplementary product, which is higher (lower) than the IRP, will increase (decrease) the willingness to pay. However, these anchors are only employed when the price information is considered to be plausible. Assimilation and contrast effects occur when the IRP is used by consumers as a criterion to judge the reasonableness of other anchors. When the external price information belongs (does not belong) to consumers' distribution of IRP, assimilation (contrast) effects occur, and consumers will regard the external reference price (ERP) to be a plausible (implausible) price. Limitations and future avenues for research are also discussed.

Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

2018-01-01

An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... price of such security future as shown by any regularly published reporting or quotation service, and... regularly published reporting or quotation service. If there is no recent closing sale price, the security... to financial relations between a security futures intermediary and a customer with respect to...

Application of quantum master equation for long-term prognosis of asset-prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikova, Polina

2016-05-01

This study combines the disciplines of behavioral finance and an extension of econophysics, namely the concepts and mathematical structure of quantum physics. We apply the formalism of quantum theory to model the dynamics of some correlated financial assets, where the proposed model can be potentially applied for developing a long-term prognosis of asset price formation. At the informational level, the asset price states interact with each other by the means of a ;financial bath;. The latter is composed of agents' expectations about the future developments of asset prices on the finance market, as well as financially important information from mass-media, society, and politicians. One of the essential behavioral factors leading to the quantum-like dynamics of asset prices is the irrationality of agents' expectations operating on the finance market. These expectations lead to a deeper type of uncertainty concerning the future price dynamics of the assets, than given by a classical probability theory, e.g., in the framework of the classical financial mathematics, which is based on the theory of stochastic processes. The quantum dimension of the uncertainty in price dynamics is expressed in the form of the price-states superposition and entanglement between the prices of the different financial assets. In our model, the resolution of this deep quantum uncertainty is mathematically captured with the aid of the quantum master equation (its quantum Markov approximation). We illustrate our model of preparation of a future asset price prognosis by a numerical simulation, involving two correlated assets. Their returns interact more intensively, than understood by a classical statistical correlation. The model predictions can be extended to more complex models to obtain price configuration for multiple assets and portfolios.

Does the U.S. biofuels mandate increase the price at the pump?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolotin, Stephen R.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 created a federal mandate for blending conventional biofuels like corn-based ethanol and advanced biofuels like biodiesel and renewable gasoline into the United States transportation fuel supply. The RFS established yearly blending standards for the obligated parties--refiners and importers of petroleum products--that increase progressively until reaching a high of 36 billion gallons by 2022. Each ethanol-equivalent gallon of biofuel blended is assigned a unique Renewable Identification Number (RIN) through the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Moderated Transaction System (EMTS). At year's close, obligated parties must submit their allotted RIN obligations to the EPA to demonstrate compliance. In the case of under-compliance or over-compliance, RINs can be traded between obligated parties freely through the EMTS or carried over for use in the next year. It follows, then, that a RIN carries a market value reflective of the cost of complying with RFS regulations. Indeed, most biofuels cost more than their fossil-based equivalents. When the price of a corn ethanol RIN went from 2-3 cents each in 2012 to nearly $1.50 in July of 2013 due to a perceived shortage in corn ethanol RINs, obligated parties faced the prospect of multimillion-dollar compliance cost increases. Arguing that RFS makes fuel significantly more expensive for consumers, petroleum companies have begun to advocate for the full repeal of the RFS, winning over some allies in Congress. The future of this program is uncertain. In an attempt to quantify the concerns of RFS critics, this thesis estimated the effect that RIN prices have on the wholesale cost of diesel fuel. Using daily price data from January 2011 through August of 2013 on RINs and crude oil, I specified twelve OLS regression models that predict the passthrough of the diesel RIN price to wholesale diesel price. My statistical analysis suggests that the diesel RIN price is a useful predictor of wholesale diesel price; however, my analysis also casts some doubt on the claims of obligated parties that they pass the cost of compliance onto the consumer, thereby increasing fuel prices significantly.

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

Lessons learned in shaping vaccine markets in low-income countries: a review of the vaccine market segment supported by the GAVI Alliance.

PubMed

Gilchrist, Shawn A N; Nanni, Angeline

2013-12-01

The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) anticipated that growing demand for new vaccines could sufficiently impact the vaccines market to allow low-income countries (LICs) to self-finance new vaccines. But the time required to lower vaccine prices was underestimated and the amount that prices would decline overestimated. To better understand how prices in the LIC vaccine market can be impacted, the vaccine market was retrospectively examined. GAVI archives and the published literature on the vaccine markets in LICs were reviewed for the purpose of identifying GAVI's early assumptions for the evolution of vaccine prices, and contrasting these retrospectively with actual outcomes. The prices in Phases I and II of GAVI-supported vaccines failed to decline to a desirable level within a projected 5-year timeframe. GAVI-eligible countries were unable to sustain newly introduced vaccines without prolonged donor support. Two key lessons can be applied to future vaccine market-shaping strategies: (1) accurate demand forecasting together with committed donor funding can increase supply to the LIC vaccines market, but even greater strides can be made to increase the certainty of purchase; and (2) the expected time to lower prices took much longer than 5 years; market competition is inherently linked to the development time for new vaccines--a minimum of 5-10 or more years. Other factors that can lower vaccine prices include: large-scale production or alternate financing mechanisms that can hasten vaccine price maturation. The impacts of competition on vaccine prices in the LIC new-vaccines market occurred after almost 10 years. The time for research and development, acquisition of technological know-how and to scale production must be accounted for to more accurately predict significant declines on vaccine prices. Alternate financing mechanisms and the use of purchase agreements should also be considered for lowering prices when planning new vaccine introductions.

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

Targeting the affordability of cigarettes: a new benchmark for taxation policy in low-income and-middle-income countries.

PubMed

Blecher, Evan

2010-08-01

To investigate the appropriateness of tax incidence (the percentage of the retail price occupied by taxes) benchmarking in low-income and-middle-income countries (LMICs) with rapidly growing economies and to explore the viability of an alternative tax policy rule based on the affordability of cigarettes. The paper outlines criticisms of tax incidence benchmarking, particularly in the context of LMICs. It then considers an affordability-based benchmark using relative income price (RIP) as a measure of affordability. The RIP measures the percentage of annual per capita GDP required to purchase 100 packs of cigarettes. Using South Africa as a case study of an LMIC, future consumption is simulated using both tax incidence benchmarks and affordability benchmarks. I show that a tax incidence benchmark is not an optimal policy tool in South Africa and that an affordability benchmark could be a more effective means of reducing tobacco consumption in the future. Although a tax incidence benchmark was successful in increasing prices and reducing tobacco consumption in South Africa in the past, this approach has drawbacks, particularly in the context of a rapidly growing LMIC economy. An affordability benchmark represents an appropriate alternative that would be more effective in reducing future cigarette consumption.

How smokers may react to cigarette taxes and price increases in Brazil: data from a national survey

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite being the third largest tobacco producer in the world, Brazil has developed a comprehensive tobacco control policy that includes a broad restriction on both advertising and smoking in indoor public places, compulsory pictorial warning labels, and a menthol cigarette ban. However, tax and pricing policies have been developed slowly and only very recently were stronger measures implemented. This study investigated the expected responses of smokers to hypothetical price increases in Brazil. Methods We analyzed smokers’ responses to hypothetical future price increases according to sociodemographic characteristics and smoking conditions in a multistage sample of Brazilian current cigarette smokers aged ≥14 years (n = 500). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between possible responses and different predictors. Results In most subgroups investigated, smokers most frequently said they would react to a hypothetical price increase by taking up alternatives that might have a positive impact on health, i.e., they would “try to stop smoking” (52.3%) or “smoke fewer cigarettes” (46.8%). However, a considerable percentage responded that they would use alternatives that would reduce the effect of price increases, such as the same brand with lower cost (48.1%). After controlling for sex age group (14–19, 20–39, 40–59, and ≥60 years), schooling level (≥9 versus ≤9 years), number of cigarettes per day (>20 versus ≤20), and stage of change for smoking cessation (precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation), lower levels of dependence were positively associated with the response “I would try to stop smoking” (odds ratio [OR], 2.19). Young age was associated with “I would decrease the number of cigarettes” (OR, 3.44). A low schooling level was strongly associated with all responses. Conclusions Taxes and prices increases have great potential to stimulate cessation or reduction of cigarette consumption further among two important vulnerable populations of smokers in Brazil: young smokers and those of low educational level. The results from the present study also suggest that seeking illegal products may reduce the impact of increased taxes, but does not eliminate it. PMID:24712903

How smokers may react to cigarette taxes and price increases in Brazil: data from a national survey.

PubMed

Gigliotti, Analice; Figueiredo, Valeska C; Madruga, Clarice S; Marques, Ana C P R; Pinsky, Ilana; Caetano, Raul; da Costa e Silva, Vera Luiza; Raw, Martin; Laranjeira, Ronaldo

2014-04-08

Despite being the third largest tobacco producer in the world, Brazil has developed a comprehensive tobacco control policy that includes a broad restriction on both advertising and smoking in indoor public places, compulsory pictorial warning labels, and a menthol cigarette ban. However, tax and pricing policies have been developed slowly and only very recently were stronger measures implemented. This study investigated the expected responses of smokers to hypothetical price increases in Brazil. We analyzed smokers' responses to hypothetical future price increases according to sociodemographic characteristics and smoking conditions in a multistage sample of Brazilian current cigarette smokers aged≥14 years (n=500). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between possible responses and different predictors. In most subgroups investigated, smokers most frequently said they would react to a hypothetical price increase by taking up alternatives that might have a positive impact on health, i.e., they would "try to stop smoking" (52.3%) or "smoke fewer cigarettes" (46.8%). However, a considerable percentage responded that they would use alternatives that would reduce the effect of price increases, such as the same brand with lower cost (48.1%). After controlling for sex age group (14-19, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years), schooling level (≥9 versus ≤9 years), number of cigarettes per day (>20 versus ≤20), and stage of change for smoking cessation (precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation), lower levels of dependence were positively associated with the response "I would try to stop smoking" (odds ratio [OR], 2.19). Young age was associated with "I would decrease the number of cigarettes" (OR, 3.44). A low schooling level was strongly associated with all responses. Taxes and prices increases have great potential to stimulate cessation or reduction of cigarette consumption further among two important vulnerable populations of smokers in Brazil: young smokers and those of low educational level. The results from the present study also suggest that seeking illegal products may reduce the impact of increased taxes, but does not eliminate it.

Escalation: How Much is Enough?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butts, Glenn

2007-01-01

Determining the escalation percentage to an estimate is often the subject of fierce debate. Cost increases are determined by dynamic relati onships between many factors, including acts of nature, interest rate s, oil prices, global commodity markets, wars, wage rates, and the ov erall health of the economy, as well as supply and demand for the required goods or services. How much escalation is enough? Are the recen t price increases temporary aberrations, or will they continue to pla gue us? This paper examines historical escalation rates, as well as i ndications of trends. Various analysis methods -- Monte Carlo simulations, neural networks, trend impact analysis, and the Delphi method -- are examined in an attempt to determine future trends.

Franchise medicine: how I avoid being a commodity in a global market.

PubMed

Constantinides, Minas

2010-02-01

As facial plastic surgery becomes more global, pressures for practices to become commoditized will increase. Commoditized practices are those in which price drives the quality of the product. Franchised surgical practices have also recently increased within the United States and abroad. These are always commoditized by their corporate philosophies. There are better ways to create value than to lower price to compete with a neighboring practice. By establishing a Transcendent Relationship of growth, both the surgeon and the patient are more satisfied with their facial plastic surgical experiences. Key tools helpful in predicting future directions for a practice, the Four Compass Points and the Average Best Patient, will be introduced. Thieme Medical Publishers.

Constructive Decision Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-16

quantitative issues like price/earnings ratio to be relevant to the future value of Google, while the other considers astrological tables relevant to...Google’s future value. The DM who uses astrology might not understand price/earnings ratios (the no- tion is simply not in his vocabulary) and, similarly

Energy: the impact of availability and prices on future business prospects. [Collection of 12 papers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peelle, D.M.

1975-01-01

This collection includes twelve papers, all but one being presented at an August 1974 seminar. These are entitled Energy: Policy, Availability and Prices, Harry R. Hall; Public Policy and the Energy Crisis, Edward J. Mitchell; How Federal Price and Allocation Controls on Oil Have Worsened the Energy Crisis, William A. Johnson; Energy Availability in the Near and Long-Range Future, R.R. Wright; Consideration of Natural Gas Supply for Michigan, Donald L. Katz; The Outlook for Coal, Robert V. Price; Electricity: Future Availability and Cost, G. L. Heins; Solar Energy Research and Development, F. Tom Sparrow; Energy in the Automobile, Doron K.more » Samples; Energy and Future Business Prospects: Implication for Feedstocks-Using Industries, William H. Shaker; Energy Conservation in the Processing Industries, Alfred F. Waterland; and Energy Management: Guidelines and Case Histories, G. N. Tiberio. Letter from OPEC is a dissertation by Joseph Kraft on a visit to OPEC headquarters in Vienna. (MCW)« less

Volatilities, Traded Volumes, and Price Increments in Derivative Securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyungsik; Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, Soo Yong; Scalas, Enrico

2007-03-01

We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to the statistics of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. For our case, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to the inherent higher-order correlation not detected by applying directly the DFA to logarithmic increments of the KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of futures prices and to generate the geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It is really shown from comparing the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments makes the volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes may be supported the hypothesis of price changes.

Volatilities, traded volumes, and the hypothesis of price increments in derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Scalas, Enrico; Kim, Kyungsik

2007-08-01

A detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied to the statistics of Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. In this study, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of the long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to a inherent higher-order correlation not detected by with the direct application of the DFA to logarithmic increments of KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of future prices and to generate a geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It was found from a comparison of the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments leads to volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes can be supported by the hypothesis of price changes.

Comparison of physicochemical characteristics and consumer perception of rice samples with different countries of origin and prices.

PubMed

Jang, Eun-Hee; Lim, Seung-Taik; Kim, Sang Sook

2012-06-01

Rice is the only food item which is not liberalized in Korea. To prepare for future liberalization of the rice market in Korea, the physicochemical characteristics and consumer perception of four domestic rice samples were compared with those of 11 foreign rice samples. Additionally, the influences of country of origin (CO) and price on purchase intent (PI) and willingness to pay (WTP) were investigated. Consumer acceptance of rice samples from Japan was generally higher than that of rice samples from other countries. In an informed test, PI was affected by price and CO, while WTP was affected mostly by price. The PI decreased with the price provided while the WTP increased. In a blind test, consumers evaluated PI and WTP according to sensory liking. The PI was higher in the informed test than in the blind test in all domestic samples. Generally, consumer acceptance was highly correlated with fat acidity (r = - 0.76), protein content (r = - 0.72), and b value (r = - 0.64) of the rice samples. Further efforts to increase the quality of rice are recommended for survival in the global market after liberalization of rice, even though consumers showed loyalty for PI of domestic samples. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

2000-03-01

Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

Feasibility study for liquefied natural gas utilization for commercial vehicles on the Pennsylvania Turnpike.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

Recent advances in horizontal drilling and fracturing technology in gas shale formations have increased natural gas supply : such that its price has decoupled from petroleum and is likely to remain significantly lower for the foreseeable future. In t...

Industrialization of mAb production technology The bioprocessing industry at a crossroads

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Manufacturing processes for therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have evolved tremendously since the first licensed mAb product in 1986. The rapid growth in product demand for mAbs triggered parallel efforts to increase production capacity through construction of large bulk manufacturing plants as well as improvements in cell culture processes to raise product titers. This combination has led to an excess of manufacturing capacity, and together with improvements in conventional purification technologies, promises nearly unlimited production capacity in the foreseeable future. The increase in titers has also led to a marked reduction in production costs, which could then become a relatively small fraction of sales price for future products which are sold at prices at or near current levels. The reduction of capacity and cost pressures for current state-of-the-art bulk production processes may shift the focus of process development efforts and have important implications for both plant design and product development strategies for both biopharmaceutical and contract manufacturing companies. PMID:20065641

Energy and economic trade offs for advanced technology subsonic aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddalon, D. V.; Wagner, R. D.

1976-01-01

Changes in future aircraft technology which conserve energy are studied, along with the effect of these changes on economic performance. Among the new technologies considered are laminar-flow control, composite materials with and without laminar-flow control, and advanced airfoils. Aircraft design features studied include high-aspect-ratio wings, thickness ratio, and range. Engine technology is held constant at the JT9D level. It is concluded that wing aspect ratios of future aircraft are likely to significantly increase as a result of new technology and the push of higher fuel prices. Whereas current airplanes have been designed for AR = 7, supercritical technology and much higher fuel prices will drive aspect ratio to the AR = 9-10 range. Composite materials may raise aspect ratio to about 11-12 and practical laminar flow-control systems may further increase aspect ratio to 14 or more. Advanced technology provides significant reductions in aircraft take-off gross weight, energy consumption, and direct operating cost.

Pricing Software and Information on CD-ROM.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbins, Patrick

1987-01-01

Examines the relationships between purchases of optical data disk products, publishers, and software suppliers. The discussion covers current pricing strategies for optical data disk software and information products, and possible future developments in marketing and pricing. (CLB)

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

PubMed

Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

2014-05-01

Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks

PubMed Central

van der Gronde, Toon; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A.

2017-01-01

Context Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. Method A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Findings Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. Conclusion A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines. PMID:28813502

Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks.

PubMed

Gronde, Toon van der; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Pieters, Toine

2017-01-01

Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines.

AC HTS Transmission Cable for Integration into the Future EHV Grid of the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuijderduin, R.; Chevtchenko, O.; Smit, J. J.; Aanhaanen, G.; Melnik, I.; Geschiere, A.

Due to increasing power demand, the electricity grid of the Netherlands is changing. The future grid must be capable to transmit all the connected power. Power generation will be more decentralized like for instance wind parks connected to the grid. Furthermore, future large scale production units are expected to be installed near coastal regions. This creates some potential grid issues, such as: large power amounts to be transmitted to consumers from west to east and grid stability. High temperature superconductors (HTS) can help solving these grid problems. Advantages to integrate HTS components at Extra High Voltage (EHV) and High Voltage (HV) levels are numerous: more power with less losses and less emissions, intrinsic fault current limiting capability, better control of power flow, reduced footprint, etc. Today's main obstacle is the relatively high price of HTS. Nevertheless, as the price goes down, initial market penetration for several HTS components is expected by year 2015 (e.g.: cables, fault current limiters). In this paper we present a design of intrinsically compensated EHV HTS cable for future grid integration. Discussed are the parameters of such cable providing an optimal power transmission in the future network.

Keeping Pace With Water and Wastewater Rates

DOE PAGES

Stratton, Hannah; Fuchs, Heidi; Chen, Yuting; ...

2017-10-01

We present that water and wastewater treatment and delivery are the most capital-intensive of all utility services. The literature indicates that historically underpriced water and wastewater rates have exhibited steadily high growth in the past 15 years, while the consumer price index (CPI) of water and sewage maintenance has outpaced the general CPI by an increasingly wide margin. This article employs a chained analysis method to examine water and wastewater rates for a group of utilities across US Census regions between 2000 and 2014. Results demonstrate that water and wastewater prices for this sample group have consistently increased and havemore » surpassed CPI growth since 2006. Finally, current and upcoming challenges facing water and wastewater utilities suggest that rate increases are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.« less

Keeping Pace With Water and Wastewater Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stratton, Hannah; Fuchs, Heidi; Chen, Yuting

We present that water and wastewater treatment and delivery are the most capital-intensive of all utility services. The literature indicates that historically underpriced water and wastewater rates have exhibited steadily high growth in the past 15 years, while the consumer price index (CPI) of water and sewage maintenance has outpaced the general CPI by an increasingly wide margin. This article employs a chained analysis method to examine water and wastewater rates for a group of utilities across US Census regions between 2000 and 2014. Results demonstrate that water and wastewater prices for this sample group have consistently increased and havemore » surpassed CPI growth since 2006. Finally, current and upcoming challenges facing water and wastewater utilities suggest that rate increases are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.« less

Open access, library and publisher competition, and the evolution of general commerce.

PubMed

Odlyzko, Andrew M

2015-02-01

Discussions of the economics of scholarly communication are usually devoted to Open Access, rising journal prices, publisher profits, and boycotts. That ignores what seems a much more important development in this market. Publishers, through the oft-reviled Big Deal packages, are providing much greater and more egalitarian access to the journal literature, an approximation to true Open Access. In the process, they are also marginalizing libraries and obtaining a greater share of the resources going into scholarly communication. This is enabling a continuation of publisher profits as well as of what for decades has been called "unsustainable journal price escalation." It is also inhibiting the spread of Open Access and potentially leading to an oligopoly of publishers controlling distribution through large-scale licensing. The Big Deal practices are worth studying for several general reasons. The degree to which publishers succeed in diminishing the role of libraries may be an indicator of the degree and speed at which universities transform themselves. More importantly, these Big Deals appear to point the way to the future of the whole economy, where progress is characterized by declining privacy, increasing price discrimination, increasing opaqueness in pricing, increasing reliance on low-paid or unpaid work of others for profits, and business models that depend on customer inertia. © The Author(s) 2014.

Female labour supply and nursing home prices.

PubMed

Bauer, Thomas K; Stroka, Magdalena A

2013-09-01

Long term care in Germany is provided in nursing homes, by professional ambulatory services and by the patient's relatives at home, with the latter being predominantly provided by women. Given an increasing labour market participation of women, long term care at home by female relatives might become less frequent in the future which in turn may result in rising demand for and hence rising prices for long term care services. This paper builds upon the existing literature on the determinants of nursing home prices and investigates whether the labour market participation and the education level of women are correlated with the prices of nursing homes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using panel data approaches in this field of research. Based on a full sample of nursing homes in Germany for the years 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007, our empirical results suggest that a high share of full-time employed women aged 50-65 at the district level is not associated with higher prices of nursing homes. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence for a positive correlation of prices with the local average of women's educational level and a negative correlation with part-time employment indicating that price levels are lower in regions with higher shares of part-time employed women.

Price dynamics in political prediction markets

PubMed Central

Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

2009-01-01

Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodel, D.P.

Energy Secretary Donald P. Hodel told participants at the 4th International Oil conference in London that no one really knows the future demand for oil or whether oil prices will be $29 or $80 per barrel. DOE and consumption-based forecasts do little more than indicate trends, such as the effort by industrial countries to reduce their dependence on oil and achieve a more balanced energy supply. The current OPEC prices indicate that market forces do seek equilibrium, but there is no guarantee that producing nations will not overproduce or seek new markets through price competition. Hodel projects that oil usemore » will go down in industrial countries and increase in developing countries. He anticipates few new supplies of low-cost oil, but expects new developments in renewable energy sources by the year 2000.« less

“Slimming” of power-law tails by increasing market returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, D.

2002-06-01

We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by Lux and Sornette (J. Money, Credit and Banking, preprint at http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9910141) that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent <1, in contradiction with empirical data. The idea is that the price fluctuations associated with bubbles must on average grow with the mean market return r. When r is larger than the discount rate rδ, the distribution of returns of the observable price, sum of the bubble component and of the fundamental price, exhibits an intermediate tail with an exponent which can be larger than 1. This regime r> rδ corresponds to a generalization of the rational bubble model in which the fundamental price is no more given by the discounted value of future dividends. We explain how this is possible. Our model predicts that, the higher is the market remuneration r above the discount rate, the larger is the power-law exponent and thus the thinner is the tail of the distribution of price returns.

Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE

Water and Wastewater Rate Hikes Outpace CPI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stratton, Hannah; Fuchs, Heidi; Chen, Yuting

Water and wastewater treatment and delivery is the most capital-intensive of all utility services. Historically underpriced, water and wastewater rates have exhibited unprecedented growth in the past fifteen years. Steep annual increases in water and wastewater rates that outpace the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have increasingly become the norm across the United States. In this paper, we analyze water and wastewater rates across U.S. census regions between 2000 and 2014. We also examine some of the driving factors behind these rate increases, including drought, water source, required infrastructure investment, population patterns, and conservation effects. Our results demonstrate that water andmore » wastewater prices have consistently increased and have outstripped CPI throughout the study period nationwide, as well as within each census region. Further, evaluation of the current and upcoming challenges facing water and wastewater utilities suggests that sharp rate increases are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.« less

Effect of food prices on the prevalence of obesity among young adults.

PubMed

Han, E; Powell, L M

2011-03-01

To examine the extent to which various food prices were associated with the obesity status of young adults. Retrospective cohort study of 6537 men and 5324 women in the USA using panel data from the Monitoring the Future Surveys (1992-2003), which were merged with two food-at-home and one food-away-from-home price measures from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association. Longitudinal individual random effect and fixed effect models were estimated. This study found that food prices did not have a significant effect on the prevalence of obesity among young female adults. For young adult men, an individual random effect estimator suggested that a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with a 13.2% decrease in the probability of obesity, but this effect lost its economic and statistical significance once individual fixed effects were controlled for in the estimation. Overall, the results imply that observed time-varying individual characteristics, such as working status, marital status and school enrolment status, may over-ride the effect of changes in food prices for young adults. More research employing longitudinal data is necessary to determine if food subsidies or taxes, particularly soft drink and fast food taxes or subsidies for fruit and vegetables, could be effective policy measures to curtail the increasing prevalence of obesity among young adults. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How have hospitals faced the pricing issues of the 1990's?

PubMed

Kleimenhagen, A; Naidu, G M; Pillari, G D

1994-01-01

National health care expenditures are rising rapidly, bringing on a health care financing crisis. For this reason, it is useful to see how hospitals are facing the price issues of the 1990's. This study examines the price strategies hospitals follow and analyzes their observations on price sensitivity and payer mix. The results clearly show that hospitals have not given much attention to the pricing variable. The study suggests that marketing and finance will have to work closely together in developing future pricing strategies.

An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Lee, Janice Soo Fern; Sagaon Teyssier, Luis; Dongmo Nguimfack, Boniface; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Lallemant, Marc; Perriens, Joseph; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2016-03-15

The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. The donor funded pediatric ARV market as represented by the GPRM database is small, and lacks price competition. It is dominated by generic drugs due to the lower prices offered and the practicality of FDC formulations. This market requires continued donor support and the current initiatives to protect it are important to ensure market viability, especially if new formulations are to be introduced in the future.

Will E-Business Shape the Future of Open and Distance Learning?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oblinger, Diana

2001-01-01

Explores the impact that electronic business is likely to have on the growth of open and distance learning. Discusses global consortia and global virtual universities; technological developments, including Web qualities; value chains; pricing models; the importance of scale; operating efficiencies; and increasing competition. (Author/LRW)

Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

2013-01-01

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses. PMID:23997423

Access to hepatitis C virus treatment: Lessons from implementation of strategies for increasing access to antiretroviral treatment.

PubMed

Assefa, Yibeltal; Hill, Peter S; Williams, Owain D

2018-05-01

At September's 2017 United Nations General Assembly, a state-of-the-art HIV medicine was announced to be made available at just $75 per person per year. There have been a number of strategies that the global AIDS community and countries have utilized to reduce prices and make antiretrovirals (ARVs) accessible for people living with HIV/AIDS. There appears to be an opportunity for the treatment of hepatitis C virus infection using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to benefit from the often painful and laboured history of driving down the prices of ARVs. In general, the success of lowering prices for ARVs has stemmed from the politics needed to initially support generic entry into the on-patent market. The use of flexibilities present in the World Trade Organization's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) have been used to overcome patent barriers, with the use of compulsory licenses and/or the threat of their use as instruments for strengthening the bargaining power in price negotiations. These strategies have been combined with new financing mechanisms that have promoted more effective procurement and price negotiations. Partnership among the different stakeholders has also been critical in this regard. Countries have also invested in their health systems and implemented several strategies to reduce stigma and discrimination to increase access to and improve utilization of ARVs. This article suggests that any future international initiatives to increase access to DAAs can learn from these lessons surrounding price reduction, improved financing, advocacy, as well as health systems strengthening and stigma reduction. Adopting and reconfiguring these strategies will also incur substantial savings in time, money and lives. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Database Business: Managing Today--Planning for Tomorrow. Issues and Futures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aitchison, T. M.; And Others

1988-01-01

Current issues and the future of the database business are discussed in five papers. Topics covered include aspects relating to the quality of database production; international ownership in the U.S. information marketplace; an overview of pricing strategies in the electronic information industry; and pricing issues from the viewpoints of online…

Quality and efficiency of statin prescribing across countries with a special focus on South Africa: findings and future implications.

PubMed

Godman, Brian; Bishop, Iain; Campbell, Stephen M; Malmström, Rickard E; Truter, Ilse

2015-04-01

Statins are recommended first-line treatment for hyperlipidemia, with published studies suggesting limited differences between them. However, there are reports of under-dosing. South Africa has introduced measures to enhance generic utilization. Part one documents prescribed doses of statins in 2011. Part two determines the extent of generics versus originator and single-sourced statins in 2011 and their costs. Underdosing of simvastatin in 2011 with average prescribed dose of 23.7 mg; however, not for atorvastatin (20.91 mg) or rosuvastatin (15.02 mg). High utilization of generics versus originators at 93-99% for atorvastatin and simvastatin, with limited utilization of single-sourced statins (22% of total statins - defined daily dose basis), mirroring Netherlands, Sweden and UK. Generics priced 33-51% below originator prices. Opportunity to increase simvastatin dosing through education, prescribing targets and incentives. Opportunity to lower generic prices with generic simvastatin 96-98% below single-sourced prices in some European countries.

Generic medicines: solutions for a sustainable drug market?

PubMed

Dylst, Pieter; Vulto, Arnold; Godman, Brian; Simoens, Steven

2013-10-01

Generic medicines offer equally high-quality treatment as originator medicines do at much lower prices. As such, they represent a considerable opportunity for authorities to obtain substantial savings. At the moment, the pharmaceutical landscape is changing and many pharmaceutical companies have altered their development and commercial strategies, combining both originator and generic divisions. In spite of this, the generic medicines industry is currently facing a number of challenges: delayed market access; the limited price differential with originator medicines; the continuous downwards pressure on prices; and the negative perception regarding generic medicines held by some key stakeholder groups. This could jeopardize the long-term sustainability of the generic manufacturing industry. Therefore, governments must focus on demand-side policies, alongside policies to accelerate market access, as the generic medicines industry will only be able to deliver competitive and sustainable prices if they are ensured a high volume. In the future, the generic medicines industry will increasingly look to biosimilars and generic versions of orphan drugs to expand their business.

75 FR 77926 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Accelerated Approval of a Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-14

... below. For example, investors may obtain on a 24-hour basis gold pricing information based on the spot... spot price of gold and last sale prices of gold futures, as well as information about news and... trading of spot gold, as well as a feed of live streaming prices to Reuters and Moneyline Telerate...

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

Activities for Students: Predicting Future Gas Prices Using the Standards for Mathematical Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bismarck, Stephen F.; Zelkowski, Jeremy; Gleason, Jim

2014-01-01

Like many commodities, the price of gasoline continues to rise, and these price changes are readily observed in gas stations' signage. Moreover, algebraic methods are well suited to model price change and answer the student's question. Over the course of one ninety-minute block or two forty-five-minute classes, students build functions…

OFT, VBP: QED?

PubMed

Claxton, Karl

2007-06-01

The report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) on the UK pharmaceutical price regulation scheme (PPRS) recommends the reform of the current scheme, which is a combination of profit and price controls, to one where price is based on the health benefits offered by a pharmaceutical. On closer examination some of the more commonly expressed concerns about these proposals do not seem to be well founded. In principle, the OFT's recommendations may contribute to allocative and dynamic efficiency in the NHS. However, there are some dangers and the details of how it will be implemented are crucial. For example, value-based pricing with an inappropriate threshold for cost-effectiveness, or an inappropriate pricing structure, could lead to technologies being adopted at prices where their benefits, in terms of health outcome, do not offset the health displaced elsewhere in the NHS, a situation in which the NHS is damaged rather than improved by innovation. A failure to account for uncertainty and the value of evidence in negotiating prices and coverage could also undermine the evidence base for future NHS practice. Whatever view is taken, the OFT report will inevitably shape the scope of future policy debates about value, guidance, price and innovation.

Limiting youth access to tobacco: comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States.

PubMed

Ahmad, Sajjad; Billimek, John

2007-03-01

Although many states in the US have raised cigarette excise taxes in recent years, the size of these increases have been fairly modest (resulting in a 15% increase in the per pack purchase price), and their impact on adult smoking prevalence is likely insufficient to meet Healthy People 2010 objectives. This paper presents the results of a 75-year dynamic simulation model comparing the long-term health benefits to society of various levels of tax increase to a viable alternative: limiting youth access to cigarettes by raising the legal purchase age to 21. If youth smoking initiation is delayed as assumed in the model, increasing the smoking age would have a minimal immediate effect on adult smoking prevalence and population health, but would affect a large drop in youth smoking prevalence from 22% to under 9% for the 15-17-year-old age group in 7 years (by 2010)-better than the result of raising taxes to increase the purchase price of cigarettes by 100%. Reducing youth initiation by enforcing a higher smoking age would reduce adult smoking prevalence in the long-term (75 years in the future) to 13.6% (comparable to a 40% tax-induced price increase), and would produce a cumulative gain of 109 million QALYs (comparable to a 20% price increase). If the political climate continues to favor only moderate cigarette excise tax increases, raising the smoking age should be considered to reduce the health burden of smoking on society. The health benefits of large tax increases, however, would be greater and would accrue faster than raising the minimum legal purchase age for cigarettes.

Pricing medicines: theory and practice, challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Gregson, Nigel; Sparrowhawk, Keiron; Mauskopf, Josephine; Paul, John

2005-02-01

The pricing of medicines has become one of the most hotly debated topics of recent times, with the pharmaceutical industry seemingly being attacked from all quarters. From a company perspective, determining the price for each new product is more crucial than ever, given the present dearth of new drug introductions. But how are pricing strategies developed in practice? What is value-based pricing and how are financial models of return on investment constructed? What are the challenges faced in setting the price for a particular product, and how will scientific and environmental trends provide future pricing challenges or opportunities?

The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement and Pharmaceutical Regulation in Canada and Australia.

PubMed

Lexchin, Joel; Gleeson, Deborah

2016-10-01

The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is a large regional trade agreement involving 12 countries. It was signed in principle in February 2016 but has not yet been ratified in any of the participating countries. The TPP provisions place a range of constraints on how governments regulate the pharmaceutical sector and set prices for medicines. This article presents a prospective policy analysis of the possible effects of the TPP on these two points in Canada and Australia. Five chapters of relevance to pharmaceutical policy are analyzed: chapters on Technical Barriers to Trade (Chapter 8), Intellectual Property (Chapter 18), Investment (Chapter 9), Dispute Resolution (Chapter 28), and an annex of the chapter on Transparency and Anti-Corruption (Chapter 26, Annex 26-A). The article concludes that the TPP could have profound effects on the criteria these countries use to decide on drug safety and effectiveness, how new drugs are approved (or not) for marketing, post-market surveillance and inspection, the listing of drugs on public formularies, and how individual drugs are priced in the future. Furthermore, the TPP, if ratified and enforced, will reduce future policy flexibility to address the increasing challenge of rising drug prices. © The Author(s) 2016.

75 FR 50789 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-17

... spot price for an ounce of Bullion from various financial information service providers, such as... regarding the spot price of Bullion and last sale prices of Bullion futures, as well as information about...\\ 15 U.S.C. 78k-1(a)(1)(C)(iii). \\9\\ The IIV is calculated by multiplying the indicative spot price of...

75 FR 56156 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-15

.... For example, investors may obtain on a 24-hour basis Bullion pricing information based on the spot... spot price of Bullion and last sale prices of Bullion futures, as well as information about news and....S.C. 78k-1(a)(1)(C)(iii). \\9\\ The IIV is calculated by multiplying the indicative spot price of...

Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

2002-01-01

There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government contribution, tax-breaks, loan guarantees, etc. The optimization performed here is for a 3rd Generation RLV program. The economic metric being optimized (maximized) is Net Present Value (NPV) based upon a given company financial structure and cost of capital assumptions. Such an optimization process demands more sophisticated optimizers and can result in non-unique solutions/local minimums if using gradient-based optimization. Domain spanning/evolutionary algorithms are used to obtain the optimized solution in the design space. These capabilities generally increase model calculation time but incorporate realistic pricing portfolios than just assuming one unified price for all launch markets. This analysis is conducted with CABAM running in Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter 4.0 collaborative design environment using the SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) OptWorks suite of optimization components.

Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines.

PubMed

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-06-01

THIS ARTICLE DEVELOPS A FORMAL MODEL FOR COMPARING THE COST STRUCTURE OF THE TWO MAIN TRANSPORT OPTIONS FOR NATURAL GAS: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO 2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG.

Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines

PubMed Central

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-01-01

This article develops a formal model for comparing the cost structure of the two main transport options for natural gas: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG. PMID:24683269

Synthetic fuels development: earth-science considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rickert, D. A.; Ulman, W.J.; Hampton, E.R.

1979-01-01

The current energy crisis is affecting the lives of all Americans. Continued increases in energy prices and frequent shortages are stark reminders of our growing dependence on foreign energy resources in today's energy-hungry world. A comprehensive national energy policy must consider a variety of energy resources, including synfuels, to meet future energy needs.

Electricity Bill Savings from Residential Photovoltaic Systems: Sensitivities to Changes in Future Electricity Market Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darghouth, Naim; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

2013-01-09

Customer-sited photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States are often compensated at the customer’s underlying retail electricity rate through net metering. Calculations of the customer economics of PV, meanwhile, often assume that retail rate structures and PV compensation mechanisms will not change and that retail electricity prices will increase (or remain constant) over time, thereby also increasing (or keeping constant) the value of bill savings from PV. Given the multitude of potential changes to retail rates and PV compensation mechanisms in the future, however, understanding how such changes might impact the value of bill savings from PV is critical formore » policymakers, regulators, utilities, the solar industry, and potential PV owners, i.e., any stakeholder interested in understanding uncertainties in and potential changes to the long-term customer economics of PV. This scoping study investigates the impact of, and interactions among, three key sources of uncertainty in the future value of bill savings from customer-sited PV, focusing in particular on residential customers. These three sources of uncertainty are: changes to electricity market conditions that would affect retail electricity prices, changes to the types of retail rate structures available to residential customers with PV, and shifts away from standard net-metering toward other compensation mechanisms for residential PV.« less

Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2011-01-01

Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

The drug budget silo mentality: the Dutch case.

PubMed

Koopmanschap, Marc A; Rutten, Frans F H

2003-01-01

This article provides a broad outline of developments in the Dutch health-care policy related to the costs, budgeting, and reimbursement of pharmaceuticals. In-hospital drugs costs are part of hospital budgets, whereas for the main part of costs, nonhospital drugs, no strict budget exists. The government sets a goal for the annual cost increase of nonhospital drugs, but has only limited means to enforce that goal. Two measures were implemented to reduce drug prices: a reference price system and a price law. Both measures had a modest and temporary impact on drug prices during the 1990s. In limiting the utilization of drugs, the package of reimbursed drugs has been restricted. This led to a shift from public to private costs and possible substitution of cheaper not reimbursed drugs by more expensive reimbursed drugs. An electronic prescription system was implemented to encourage rational prescription. Although 70% of the Dutch general practitioners reported to use the system, the estimated savings on drug costs appear to be modest and far less than expected. The use of economic evaluation for reimbursement decisions will increase. From 2005 onward a pharmacoeconomic study and budget impact analysis is formally required for new nonclustered drugs seeking a premium price. Furthermore, in the future the health-care insurers will get a more prominent role in limiting the costs of drugs and enhancing the efficient use of drugs within their overall budgets. Health-care insurers may choose which drugs to purchase and reimburse and they can negotiate drug prices with the pharmaceutical industry, wholesalers, and local pharmacists.

An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006–2015 data for China’s 22 provinces

PubMed Central

Pang, Jinbo; Deng, Lingfei

2017-01-01

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a “buy” strategy and speculators adopt a “do not speculate” strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies. PMID:28241024

An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006-2015 data for China's 22 provinces.

PubMed

Pang, Jinbo; Deng, Lingfei; Wang, Gangyi

2017-01-01

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a "buy" strategy and speculators adopt a "do not speculate" strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies.

Formation of the metal and energy-carrier price clusters on the world market of nonferrous metals in the postcrisis period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2016-06-01

The laws of formation of price clusters are revealed upon statistical processing of the data on changing the quotation prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, black oil, gasoline, and natural gas in the postcrisis period from January 1, 2009 to November 1, 2013. It is found that the metal prices entering in the price cluster of nonferrous metals most strongly affect the formation of the nonferrous metal price and that the prices of precious metals and energy carriers correct the exchange price of the metal to some extent but do not determine its formation. Equations are derived to calculate the prices. The results of calculation by these equations agree well with the real nonferrous metal prices in the near future.

Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karali, Nihan; Park, Won Young; McNeil, Michael A.

Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in themore » future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO 2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically feasible in the U.S. iron and steel sector with the current cost structure. In contrast, some of the demonstration technologies are adapted in the mid-term and their penetration levels increase as the prices go down with learning curve. We also observe large penetration of 225kg pulverized coal injection with the presence of learning.« less

The Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

Given the postwar downtrend ifacturers and manufact -irng output would in hours worked per week, this development is u4refore slow. The increase in...consumer services, food , and other nondurable confident about the growth in their future income. goods came on the heels of strong increases in the...estimate, excess demand developed consumer price index excluding food and energy) near the end of 1987--that is, the actual unemploy- remained virtually

Does the OVX matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from the crude oil market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Wendai

2018-02-01

In this paper, I investigate that whether the OVX and its truncated parts with a certain threshold can significantly help in forecasting the oil futures price volatility basing on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In-sample estimation results show that the OVX has a significantly positive impact on futures volatility. The impact of large OVX on future volatility has slightly powerful compared to the small ones. Moreover, the HARQ-RV model outperforms the HAR-RV in predicting the oil futures volatility. More importantly, the decomposed OVX have more powerful in forecasting the oil futures price volatility compared to the OVX itself.

The upward spiral of drug costs: a time series analysis of drugs used in the treatment of hemophilia.

PubMed

Rogoff, Edward G; Guirguis, Hany S; Lipton, Richard A; Seremetis, Stephanie V; DiMichele, Donna M; Agnew, George M; Karpatkin, Margaret; Barish, Robert J; Jones, Robert L; Bianco, Celso; Knothe, Barbara D; Lee, Myung-Soo

2002-10-01

Hemophilia is an expensive disease because its treatment is heavily dependent on costly clotting factor drugs. Over the last nine years,a consortium of three Comprehensive Hemophilia Treatment Centers and other hospitals, which purchased clotting factors for their patients, has seen treatment costs escalate on average 17% annually. Currently, new, even more expensive drugs are entering the market. This study analyzes 3,244 purchases that were made over a nine-year period totaling nearly 500 million units of clotting factor, representing every product on the market. Purchases were made both apart from and under the Federal Public Health Service (PHS)discount pricing rules. The main cause of the increases was the move to newer, more expensive products. The average price of existing products increased less than 2%per year, but new products were priced, on average, 47% higher than existing products. Overall consumption increased by an average of 5% per year, likely reflecting prophylactic treatment modalities that require greater amounts of clotting factor. Government pricing programs, such as the PHS program, were ineffective or counterproductive at reducing costs. There is a notable absence of competition in this market, with a few dominant companies having a functional monopoly in the largest segments of the market. Prices of older products are not lowered, even when new products are brought to market. A few products that serve small patient groups have had their prices increased substantially. This escalation is likely to continue as new, more expensive clotting factor drugs are developed. Since these new products are not proven to be any safer or more effective than the current products, this situation creates a risk of intervention by government and insurers to address both treatment costs and exhaustion of patients' insurance caps. Drug companies are not serving the patients by pricing new, but often very similar, products so aggressively. The trends seen in this patient group will likely be seen in other patient groups in the future. Ultimately, doctors and patients will lose treatment options and health care availability unless collaborative strategies are developed to reduce costs.

A rapidly changing global medicines environment: How adaptable are funding decision-making systems?

PubMed

Leopold, Christine; Morgan, Steven G; Wagner, Anita K

2017-06-01

With the launch of very highly priced therapies and sudden price increases of generics, pressures on health systems have drastically increased. We aimed to elicit opinions of key decision makers responsible for national assessment and funding decisions on their experiences to adapt to these new realities. Through interviews with decision makers of pharmaceutical assessment and/or funding agencies, we describe the challenges systems are currently facing, systems' responses and systems' characteristics facilitating or hindering responses to changes and overarching topics for the future. Among the most common challenges are increased funding pressures, increased uncertainty and lack of transparency in decision-making. Systems' responses include utilization management, changing of assessment processes, stakeholder engagement and a focus on outcomes and on coordinated negotiations. Integrated delivery systems, fixed health care budgets and geographic and historical characteristics facilitate or sometimes hinder responses to change. Future policy emphasis lays on expanding data structures, managing the exit of drugs funded early, and implementing processes for communications with patients and the public. Going forward emphasis has to be given to structured communications with all stakeholders with a specific emphasis on the broader public and patients about financial limits and priority setting in health care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of antiretroviral drug costs in Brazil in the context of free and universal access to AIDS treatment.

PubMed

Nunn, Amy S; Fonseca, Elize M; Bastos, Francisco I; Gruskin, Sofia; Salomon, Joshua A

2007-11-13

Little is known about the long-term drug costs associated with treating AIDS in developing countries. Brazil's AIDS treatment program has been cited widely as the developing world's largest and most successful AIDS treatment program. The program guarantees free access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for all people living with HIV/AIDS in need of treatment. Brazil produces non-patented generic antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), procures many patented ARVs with negotiated price reductions, and recently issued a compulsory license to import one patented ARV. In this study, we investigate the drivers of recent ARV cost trends in Brazil through analysis of drug-specific prices and expenditures between 2001 and 2005. We compared Brazil's ARV prices to those in other low- and middle-income countries. We analyzed trends in drug expenditures for HAART in Brazil from 2001 to 2005 on the basis of cost data disaggregated by each ARV purchased by the Brazilian program. We decomposed the overall changes in expenditures to compare the relative impacts of changes in drug prices and drug purchase quantities. We also estimated the excess costs attributable to the difference between prices for generics in Brazil and the lowest global prices for these drugs. Finally, we estimated the savings attributable to Brazil's reduced prices for patented drugs. Negotiated drug prices in Brazil are lowest for patented ARVs for which generic competition is emerging. In recent years, the prices for efavirenz and lopinavir-ritonavir (lopinavir/r) have been lower in Brazil than in other middle-income countries. In contrast, the price of tenofovir is US$200 higher per patient per year than that reported in other middle-income countries. Despite precipitous price declines for four patented ARVs, total Brazilian drug expenditures doubled, to reach US$414 million in 2005. We find that the major driver of cost increases was increased purchase quantities of six specific drugs: patented lopinavir/r, efavirenz, tenofovir, atazanavir, enfuvirtide, and a locally produced generic, fixed-dose combination of zidovudine and lamivudine (AZT/3TC). Because prices declined for many of the patented drugs that constitute the largest share of drug costs, nearly the entire increase in overall drug expenditures between 2001 and 2005 is attributable to increases in drug quantities. Had all drug quantities been held constant from 2001 until 2005 (or for those drugs entering treatment guidelines after 2001, held constant between the year of introduction and 2005), total costs would have increased by only an estimated US$7 million. We estimate that in the absence of price declines for patented drugs, Brazil would have spent a cumulative total of US$2 billion on drugs for HAART between 2001 and 2005, implying a savings of US$1.2 billion from price declines. Finally, in comparing Brazilian prices for locally produced generic ARVs to the lowest international prices meeting global pharmaceutical quality standards, we find that current prices for Brazil's locally produced generics are generally much higher than corresponding global prices, and note that these prices have risen in Brazil while declining globally. We estimate the excess costs of Brazil's locally produced generics totaled US$110 million from 2001 to 2005. Despite Brazil's more costly generic ARVs, the net result of ARV price changes has been a cost savings of approximately US$1 billion since 2001. HAART costs have nevertheless risen steeply as Brazil has scaled up treatment. These trends may foreshadow future AIDS treatment cost trends in other developing countries as more people start treatment, AIDS patients live longer and move from first-line to second and third-line treatment, AIDS treatment becomes more complex, generic competition emerges, and newer patented drugs become available. The specific application of the Brazilian model to other countries will depend, however, on the strength of their health systems, intellectual property regulations, epidemiological profiles, AIDS treatment guidelines, and differing capacities to produce drugs locally.

Integration of HTS Cables in the Future Grid of the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuijderduin, R.; Chevtchenko, O.; Smit, J. J.; Aanhaanen, G.; Melnik, I.; Geschiere, A.

Due to increasing power demand, the electricity grid of the Netherlands is changing. The future transmission grid will obtain electrical power generated by decentralized renewable sources, together with large scale generation units located at the coastal region. In this way electrical power has to be distributed and transmitted over longer distances from generation to end user. Potential grid issues like: amount of distributed power, grid stability and electrical loss dissipation merit particular attention. High temperature superconductors (HTS) can play an important role in solving these grid problems. Advantages to integrate HTS components at transmission voltages are numerous: more transmittable power together with less emissions, intrinsic fault current limiting capability, lower ac loss, better control of power flow, reduced footprint, less magnetic field emissions, etc. The main obstacle at present is the relatively high price of HTS conductor. However as the price goes down, initial market penetration of several HTS components (e.g.: cables, fault current limiters) is expected by year 2015. In the full paper we present selected ways to integrate EHV AC HTS cables depending on a particular future grid scenario in the Netherlands.

Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shu-Peng; He, Ling-Yun

2010-04-01

Based on Partition Function and Multifractal Spectrum Analysis, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets, namely, Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE for short) and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE for short), where nearly all agricultural futures contracts are traded in the two markets. Firstly, we found nontrivial multifractal spectra, which are the empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features, in 4 representative futures markets in China, that is, Hard Winter wheat (HW for short) and Strong Gluten wheat (SG for short) futures markets from ZCE and Soy Meal (SM for short) futures and Soy Bean No.1 (SB for short) futures markets from DCE. Secondly, by shuffling the original time series, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation; thus, we identified that long-range correlation mechanism constitutes major contributions in the formation in the multifractals of the markets. Thirdly, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half spectra, we found that there exist critical points, between which there are different behaviors, in the left-half spectra for large price fluctuations; but for the right-hand spectra for small price fluctuations, the width of those increases slowly as the delay t increases in the long run. Finally, the dynamics of large fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones, which implies that there exist different underlying mechanisms in the formation of multifractality in the markets. Our main contributions focus on that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features in China agricultural commodity futures markets; but also we pioneered in investigating the sources of the multifractality in China’s agricultural futures markets in current literature; furthermore, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms based on spectrum analysis, which offers us insights into the underlying dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets.

Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive large oil prices. Chinese oil demand is not responsible for large increases in oil prices; nor are they caused by behavioral idiosyncrasies by oil traders. Finally, oil will be treated largely as a financial asset so long as interest rates are held near their all-time lows.

Prioritized service system behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Huw

2001-07-01

Internet technology is becoming the infrastructure of the future for any information that can be transmitted digitally, including voice, audio, video and data services of all kinds. The trend to integrate voice and data traffic observed in the Internet is expected to continue until the full integration of all media types is achieved. At the same time it is obvious that the business model employed for current Internet usage is not sustainable for the creation of an infrastructure suitable to support a diverse and ever-increasing range of application services. Currently the Internet provides only a single class of best-effort service and prices are mainly built on flat-fee, access based schemes. We propose the use of pricing mechanisms for controlling demand for scarce resources, in order to improve the economic efficiency of the system. Standard results in economic theory suggest that increasing the value of the network services to the users is beneficial to both the users and the network operator (since he can charge them more and get back a bigger percentage of their surplus). Using pricing mechanisms helps in that respect. When demand is high, prices are being raised and hence deter the users with low valuation for the service to use it. This leaves resources to be available for the users that value them more, and hence are ready to pay more.

The role of bioethics in the international prescription drug market: economics and global justice.

PubMed

Newland, Shelby E

2006-01-01

In terms of health care access, bioethics has an important role to inform and shape policy issues and develop interdisciplinary ideas and interventions. The rising price of prescription drugs presents one of the most looming barriers to health care access in the world today. Including both theoretical and practical features of the pharmaceutical industry's behavior is necessary to find ethical solutions towards increasing access. Bioethics can evaluate global justice by weighing human rights theory and future innovation at the macro level, and by addressing market forces and responsibilities at the micro level. Inherent structural features of pharmaceuticals, such as its reliance on research and development, cause the industry to employ pricing strategies that seem counter-intuitive to conventional wisdom, but that result in producing a just allocation as defined by market forces. Parallel trade and drug exportation/reimportation threaten the saliency of the industry's differential pricing scheme; a case-study of a single "Euro-price" within the European Union illustrates how this will actually create harm to the most needy member states. This complex situation requires solutions weighing arguments from human rights theory with those from economic theory to arrive at the most globally just allocation of prescription drugs in the global marketplace, as well as to ensure future innovation and scientific progress. Bioethicists as well as economists need to partake urgently in this discourse for the betterment of the global injustices in the international prescription drug market.

Changes in Retail Prices of Prescription Dermatologic Drugs From 2009 to 2015.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Miranda E; Rosenberg, Steven P

2016-02-01

Physicians from many specialties as well as primary care prescribe dermatologic medications; as insurance formularies become increasingly restrictive and more patients are covered with high-deductible insurance plans, many patients are forced to pay high retail prices to obtain their medications. To determine the changes in the prices of commonly prescribed dermatologic medications since 2009 and to identify trends in price increases for different classes of drugs. Four national chain pharmacies received surveys requesting price data on commonly prescribed dermatologic drugs in 2009, 2011, 2014, and 2015. The initial survey requested information on 72 brand-name drugs. Subsequent surveys increased to eventually include 120 additional brand-name drugs and their generic alternatives when available. Owing to the frequency of prescription, diseases treated, or unusual price increases, 19 brand-name drugs surveyed in all 4 years were selected for final price trend analysis, which was conducted from August 1 to 15, 2015. Retail prices of topical and systemic drugs for the treatment of various dermatologic conditions. Prices of surveyed brand-name drugs increased rapidly between 2009 and 2015. Of the 19 brand-name drugs analyzed, the retail prices of 7 drugs more than quadrupled during the study period. Among these 19 drugs, the mean price increase was 401% during the 6-year survey period, with the majority of the price increases occurring after 2011. Prices of topical antineoplastic drugs had the greatest mean absolute and percentage increase ($10,926.58 [1240%]). Prices of drugs in the antiinfective class had the smallest mean absolute increase ($333.99); prices of psoriasis medications had the smallest mean percentage increase (180%). Prices of acne and rosacea medications increased a mean of 195%, and prices of topical corticosteroids increased a mean of 290% during the study period. Selected generic drugs surveyed in 2011 and 2014 also increased a mean of 279% during the 3-year period. The price of prescription dermatologic drugs rose considerably from 2009 to 2015, with the vast majority of price increases occurring after 2011. Percent increases for multiple, frequently prescribed medications greatly outpaced inflation, national health expenditure growth, and increases in reimbursements for physician services.

Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market.

PubMed

Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

2013-07-01

Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999-2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. UK. UK smokers. Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and 'ultra-low price' (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Smoking Behavior among Jordanians: Physical, Psychological, Social, and Economic Reasons.

PubMed

Sweis, Nadia J

2018-03-12

To highlight the physical, psychological, social, and economic reasons related to sex differences in smoking behaviors in Jordan. A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey was conducted among Jordanian adult smokers. Sex was a significant predictor of physical reasons related to smoking; when controlling for other factors (t 765 = 5.027; P < 0.001), women were more affected by physical factors than were men. In addition, work status was a significant predictor of physical reasons (t 765 = -2.563; P = 0.011), as was the price of cigarettes (t 765 = 2.224; P = 0.026). Age was a significant predictor of psychological reasons (t 765 = -3.092; P = 0.002): younger individuals were more likely to state psychological factors as their reason for smoking than were older individuals. Conversely, sex was a significant predictor (t 765 = 2.798; P = 0.005) of social reasons for smoking, with more men than women reporting social motivations. Women were more likely to smoke for physical factors that are positively correlated with the price of cigarettes, rendering them less responsive to an increase in the price of cigarettes. Conversely, men were more likely to smoke for social reasons that are negatively correlated with the price of cigarettes; thus, men are more responsive to an increase in the price of cigarettes. Future public policies aiming to combat smoking in Jordan should consider sex differences in smoking behavior because one policy may not necessarily fit all. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

Essays on environmental, energy, and natural resource economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fan

My dissertation focuses on examining the interrelationship among the environment, energy and economic development. In the first essay, I explore the effects of increased uncertainty over future output prices, input costs and productivity levels on intertemporal emission permits trading. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of each of these three sources of uncertainty. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes risk-neutral firms to reduce ex ante emissions to smooth marginal abatement costs over time. Empirical analysis shows that increased price volatility induced by electricity market restructuring could explain 8-11% of the allowances banked during Phase I of the U.S. sulfur dioxide trading program. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty may generate substantial initial compliance costs, thereby deterring new entrants and reducing efficiency; sharp emission spikes are also more likely to occur under industry-wide uncertainty shocks. In the second essay, I examine whether electricity restructuring improves the efficiency of U.S. nuclear power generation. Based on the full sample of 73 investor-owned nuclear plants in the United States from 1992 to 1998, I estimate cross-sectional and longitudinal efficiency changes associated with restructuring, at the plant level. Various modeling strategies are presented to deal with the policy endogeneity bias that high cost plants are more likely to be restructured. Overall, I find a strikingly positive relationship between the multiple steps of restructuring and plant operating efficiency. In the third essay, I estimate the economic impact of China's national land conversion program on local farm-dependent economies. The impact of the program on 14 industrial sectors in Gansu provinces are investigated using an input-output model. Due to regulatory restrictions, the agricultural sector cannot automatically expand or shrink its land requirements in direct proportion to output changes. Therefore, I modify a standard input-output model to incorporate supply constraints on cropping activities. A spatially explicit analysis is also implemented in a geographical information system to capture the heterogeneous land productivity. The net cost of the conservation program is estimated to be a land rent of 487.21 per acre per year (1999).

Private forest investment and long-run sustainable harvest volumes.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Darius M. Adams; John T. Chmelik; Pete Bettinger

1999-01-01

Private timberlands in the United States have the biological potential to provide larger quantities of timber on a sustainable basis than they do today. Most opportunities for increasing growth and harvest lie on nonindustrial private lands in the South. Past studies, based on fixed scenarios of future prices, also suggest that many of these opportunities for...

Price and Value: Considerations for College Shoppers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broh, C. Anthony; Ansel, Dana

2010-01-01

Parents and students recognize the value of a college degree. Increasingly, they are borrowing large sums of money to invest in the future. Their choices about how to save for college, where to attend college, how much and from where to borrow for college, and how to repay their loans, have grown more complex. Yet families work with incomplete…

Rethinking the Role of the Automobile. Worldwatch Paper No. 84.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Renner, Michael

In 1987, a record 126,000 automobiles rolled off assembly lines each working day, and close to 400 million vehicles are used on the world's roads today. Prior to the 1970s the automobile's utility and sustainability were hardly questioned. A decade of oil price increases and worries about future fuel availability slowed automobile use somewhat,…

Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

Do client fees help or hurt?

PubMed

Barnett, B

1998-01-01

This article discusses the impact of client fees for family planning (FP) services on cost recovery and level of user services in developing countries. The UN Population Fund reports that developing country governments currently pay 75% of the costs of FP programs. Donors contribute 15%, and clients pay 10%. Current pressures are on FP services to broaden and improve their scope, while user demand is increasing. Program managers should consider the program's need for funds and the clients' willingness to pay. Clients are willing to pay about 1% of their income for contraception. A study of sterilization acceptance in Mexico finds that the average monthly case load declined by 10% after the 1st price increase from $43 to $55 and declined by 58% after the 2nd price increase to $60. Fewer low-income clients requested sterilization. A CEMOPLAF study in Ecuador finds that in three price increase situations the number of clients seeking services declined, but the economic mix of clients remained about the same. The decline was 20% in the group with a 20% price increase and 26% in the 40% increase group. In setting fees, the first need is to determine unit costs. The Futures Group International recommends considering political, regulatory, and institutional constraints for charging fees; priorities for revenue use; protection for poor clients; and monitoring of money collection and expenditure. Management Sciences for Health emphasizes consideration of the reasons for collection of fees, client affordability, and client perception of quality issues. Sliding scales can be used to protect poor clients. Charging fees for laboratory services can subsidize poor clients. A Bangladesh program operated a restaurant and catering service in order to subsidize FP services. Colombia's PROFAMILIA sells medical and surgical services and a social marketing program in order to expand clinics.

Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market

PubMed Central

Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

2013-01-01

Aims Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Design Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999–2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. Setting UK. Participants UK smokers. Measurements Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. Findings TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and ‘ultra-low price’ (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Conclusions Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. PMID:23445255

Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment

PubMed Central

Nordhaus, William D.

2010-01-01

The science of global warming has reached a consensus on the high likelihood of substantial warming over the coming century. Nations have taken only limited steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since the first agreement in Kyoto in 1997, and little progress was made at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. The present study examines alternative outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages under different policy scenarios. It uses an updated version of the regional integrated model of climate and the economy (RICE model). Recent projections suggest that substantial future warming will occur if no abatement policies are implemented. The model also calculates the path of carbon prices necessary to keep the increase in global mean temperature to 2 °C or less in an efficient manner. The carbon price for 2010 associated with that goal is estimated to be $59 per ton (at 2005 prices), compared with an effective global average price today of around $5 per ton. However, it is unlikely that the Copenhagen temperature goal will be attained even if countries meet their ambitious stated objectives under the Copenhagen Accord. PMID:20547856

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Cohen, Deborah A; Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-07-01

We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in "food deserts" in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

Prediction of future asset prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

2014-12-01

This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

Effect of the tobacco price support program on cigarette consumption in the United States: an updated model.

PubMed Central

Zhang, P; Husten, C; Giovino, G

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the direct effect of the tobacco price support program on domestic cigarette consumption. METHODS: We developed an economic model of demand and supply of US tobacco to estimate how much the price support program increases the price of tobacco. We calculated the resultant increase in cigarette prices from the change in the tobacco price and the quantity of domestic tobacco contained in US cigarettes. We then assessed the reduction in cigarette consumption attributable to the price support program by applying the estimated increase in the cigarette price to assumed price elasticities of demand for cigarettes. RESULTS: We estimated that the tobacco price support program increased the price of tobacco leaf by $0.36 per pound. This higher tobacco price translates to a $0.01 increase in the price of a pack of cigarettes and an estimated 0.21% reduction in cigarette consumption. CONCLUSION: Because the tobacco price support program increases the price of cigarettes minimally, its potential health benefit is likely to be small. The adverse political effect of the tobacco program might substantially outweigh the potential direct benefit of the program on cigarette consumption. PMID:10800423

Effect of privatization of the drug distribution system on drug prices in Malaysia.

PubMed

Babar, Z D; Izham, M I M

2009-08-01

Previous studies on anti-infective and cardiovascular drugs have shown extraordinary price increases following privatization of the Malaysian drug distribution system. Therefore, it was felt that there was a need to undertake a full-scale study to evaluate the effect of privatization of the Malaysian drug distribution system on drug prices. To compare pre-privatization drug prices with post-privatization drug prices, and to compare the prices with international reference prices (IRPs). Five hundred and sixty-four drugs were listed in price lists for 1994, 1995-1996, 1997-2000 and 2001-2003. The 1994 data were taken as the pre-privatization prices, and all other lists were considered to be post-privatization prices. The pre-privatization prices (1994) were compared with those in 1995-1996. The prices in 1995-1996 were compared with those in 1997-2000, and the 1997-2000 prices were compared with those in 2001-2003. Furthermore, the 2001-2003 prices were compared with the median IRPs taken from Management Sciences for Health. The prices increased by 10.42% in 1995-1996, decreased by 3.37% in 1997-2000, and increased by 64.04% in 2001-2003. The increase in prices does not follow any pricing formula but is influenced by free market principles. The commonly used generic drugs showed enormously higher prices compared with the IRPs. Some of the prices increased several hundred-fold compared with the previous year, showing that no pricing formula has been followed. Increasing prices over the years may lead to higher expenditures and a hurdle to drug accessibility. A rational pricing structure is needed for transparent pricing, and government involvement and the formation of a medicine pricing policy seems vital.

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

New Hampshire's Stumpage and Roadside Prices: Characteristics and Trends

Treesearch

Susan B. Remington; Donald F. Dennis; Donald F. Dennis

1986-01-01

Reports average stumpage and roadside prices and their relative rates of change for timber and logs in New Hampshire for 1964 to 1983. Stumpage and roadside prices increased overall from 1964 to 1983. Roadside prices increased at a slower rate than stumpage prices. Real sawtimber prices increased for all species except hemlock during the period. Red oak prices...

The Economic Impact of the Introduction of Biosimilars in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

PubMed

Severs, M; Oldenburg, B; van Bodegraven, A A; Siersema, P D; Mangen, M-J J

2017-03-01

Inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] entails a high economic burden to society. We aimed to estimate the current and future impact of the introduction of biosimilars for infliximab on IBD-related health care costs. We designed a stochastic economic model to simulate the introduction of biosimilars in IBD, using a 5-year time horizon, based on the Dutch situation. Prevalence data on ulcerative colitis [UC] and Crohn's disease [CD] and IBD-related health care costs data were used as input. Assumptions were made on price reductions of anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] therapy, increase of anti-TNF prescription rate, and development of hospitalization costs. The base case scenario included a gradual decrease in prices of biosimilars up to 60%, a gradual decrease in prices of original anti-TNF compounds up to 50%, and an annual increase of anti-TNF prescription rate of 1%, and this was compared with no introduction of biosimilars. Sensitivity analyses were performed. For the base case, cost savings over the total of 5 years were on average €9,850 per CD patient and €2,250 per UC patient, yielding in €493 million total cost savings [a reduction of 28%] for The Netherlands. Results were predominantly determined by price reduction of anti-TNF therapy, threshold price reduction at which physicians switch patients towards biosimilars and the extent to which switching will take place. The introduction of biosimilars for infliximab can be expected to have a major impact on the cost profile of IBD. The economic impact will depend on local pricing, procurement policies and the physician's willingness to switch patients to biosimilars. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Determining factors affecting tourism demand for Malaysia using ARDL modeling: A case of Europe countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

2016-10-01

Tourism industry is the second largest foreign exchange earner after manufacturing in Malaysia. With regards to the importance of tourism industry in Malaysia, any factors that influence tourism demand should be considered cautiously by the government and tourism authorities in order to attract more international tourists in the near future. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic long-run and short-run relationship between the number of international tourist arrivals from six European countries and four selected economic variables. The economic variables used in this study are exchange rate, gross domestic product, relative price and substitute relative price. This study also examines the impact of the European Sovereign crisis on the number of arrivals from the selected European countries to Malaysia. The data covers the period from quarter 1 (Q1) of 1999 to quarter 3 (Q3) of 2014 and employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of unit root test show a mixture of integrated at level and order one, I(0) and I(1). The results show that there exist long-run cointegration between the number of international tourist arrivals and exchange rate, level of income, tourism price and substitute tourism price for all countries. Generally, the results show that level of income is in line with the economic theory and Thailand is a competing destination for the tourism industry in Malaysia. Surprisingly, relative price is found to have positive impact on the number of arrivals to Malaysia and this suggests that an increase in the price level in Malaysia is unexpectedly increase the number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia. Therefore the Malaysian government and tourism authorities should continue the efforts to withstand the growth of the tourism industry.

Evidence that a tax on sugar sweetened beverages reduces the obesity rate: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Excess intake of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been shown to result in weight gain. To address the growing epidemic of obesity, one option is to combine programmes that target individual behaviour change with a fiscal policy such as excise tax on SSBs. This study evaluates the literature on SSB taxes or price increases, and their potential impact on consumption levels, obesity, overweight and body mass index (BMI). The possibility of switching to alternative drinks is also considered. Methods The following databases were used: Pubmed/Medline, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Google Scholar, Econlit, National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER), Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). Articles published between January 2000 and January 2013, which reported changes in diet or BMI, overweight and/or obesity due to a tax on, or price change of, SSBs were included. Results Nine articles met the criteria for the meta-analysis. Six were from the USA and one each from Mexico, Brazil and France. All showed negative own-price elasticity, which means that higher prices are associated with a lower demand for SSBs. Pooled own price-elasticity was -1.299 (95% CI: -1.089 - -1.509). Four articles reported cross-price elasticities, three from the USA and one from Mexico; higher prices for SSBs were associated with an increased demand for alternative beverages such as fruit juice (0.388, 95% CI: 0.009 – 0.767) and milk (0.129, 95% CI: -0.085 – 0.342), and a reduced demand for diet drinks (-0.423, 95% CI: -0.628 - -1.219). Six articles from the USA showed that a higher price could also lead to a decrease in BMI, and decrease the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Conclusions Taxing SSBs may reduce obesity. Future research should estimate price elasticities in low- and middle-income countries and identify potential health gains and the wider impact on jobs, monetary savings to the health sector, implementation costs and government revenue. Context-specific cost-effectiveness studies would allow policy makers to weigh these factors. PMID:24225016

2014 Wind Technologies Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Barbose, Galen

Wind power capacity additions in the United States rebounded in 2014, and continued growth through 2016 is anticipated. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—which is available for projects that began construction by the end of 2014. Wind additions are also being driven by recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, which have resulted in the lowest power sales prices ever seen in the U.S. wind sector. Growing corporate demand for wind energy and state-level policies play important roles as well. Expectations for continued technological advancementsmore » and cost reductions may further boost future growth. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond 2016 are uncertain. The PTC has expired, and its renewal remains in question. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on growth expectations. These trends, in combination with increasingly global supply chains, have limited the growth of domestic manufacturing of wind equipment. What they mean for wind power additions through the end of the decade and beyond will be dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions.« less

11 CFR 110.17 - Price index increase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Price index increase. 110.17 Section 110.17... PROHIBITIONS § 110.17 Price index increase. (a) Price index increases for party committee expenditure... 11 CFR 109.32 and 110.8 shall be increased by the percent difference between the price index, as...

The Big Drink Debate: perceptions of the impact of price on alcohol consumption from a large scale cross-sectional convenience survey in north west England.

PubMed

Cook, Penny A; Phillips-Howard, Penelope A; Morleo, Michela; Harkins, Corinne; Briant, Linford; Bellis, Mark A

2011-08-23

A large-scale survey was conducted in 2008 in north west England, a region with high levels of alcohol-related harm, during a regional 'Big Drink Debate' campaign. The aim of this paper is to explore perceptions of how alcohol consumption would change if alcohol prices were to increase or decrease. A convenience survey of residents (≥ 18 years) of north west England measured demographics, income, alcohol consumption in previous week, and opinions on drinking behaviour under two pricing conditions: low prices and discounts and increased alcohol prices (either 'decrease', 'no change' or 'increase'). Multinomial logistic regression used three outcomes: 'completely elastic' (consider that lower prices increase drinking and higher prices decrease drinking); 'lower price elastic' (lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect); and 'price inelastic' (no change for either). Of 22,780 drinkers surveyed, 80.3% considered lower alcohol prices and discounts would increase alcohol consumption, while 22.1% thought raising prices would decrease consumption, making lower price elasticity only (i.e. lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect) the most common outcome (62%). Compared to a high income/high drinking category, the lightest drinkers with a low income (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.78, 95% confidence intervals CI 1.38-2.30) or medium income (AOR = 1.88, CI 1.47-2.41) were most likely to be lower price elastic. Females were more likely than males to be lower price elastic (65% vs 57%) while the reverse was true for complete elasticity (20% vs 26%, P < 0.001). Lower pricing increases alcohol consumption, and the alcohol industry's continued focus on discounting sales encourages higher drinking levels. International evidence suggests increasing the price of alcohol reduces consumption, and one in five of the surveyed population agreed; more work is required to increase this agreement to achieve public support for policy change. Such policy should also recognise that alcohol is an addictive drug, and the population may be prepared to pay more to drink the amount they now feel they need.

The Big Drink Debate: perceptions of the impact of price on alcohol consumption from a large scale cross-sectional convenience survey in north west England

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A large-scale survey was conducted in 2008 in north west England, a region with high levels of alcohol-related harm, during a regional 'Big Drink Debate' campaign. The aim of this paper is to explore perceptions of how alcohol consumption would change if alcohol prices were to increase or decrease. Methods A convenience survey of residents (≥ 18 years) of north west England measured demographics, income, alcohol consumption in previous week, and opinions on drinking behaviour under two pricing conditions: low prices and discounts and increased alcohol prices (either 'decrease', 'no change' or 'increase'). Multinomial logistic regression used three outcomes: 'completely elastic' (consider that lower prices increase drinking and higher prices decrease drinking); 'lower price elastic' (lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect); and 'price inelastic' (no change for either). Results Of 22,780 drinkers surveyed, 80.3% considered lower alcohol prices and discounts would increase alcohol consumption, while 22.1% thought raising prices would decrease consumption, making lower price elasticity only (i.e. lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect) the most common outcome (62%). Compared to a high income/high drinking category, the lightest drinkers with a low income (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.78, 95% confidence intervals CI 1.38-2.30) or medium income (AOR = 1.88, CI 1.47-2.41) were most likely to be lower price elastic. Females were more likely than males to be lower price elastic (65% vs 57%) while the reverse was true for complete elasticity (20% vs 26%, P < 0.001). Conclusions Lower pricing increases alcohol consumption, and the alcohol industry's continued focus on discounting sales encourages higher drinking levels. International evidence suggests increasing the price of alcohol reduces consumption, and one in five of the surveyed population agreed; more work is required to increase this agreement to achieve public support for policy change. Such policy should also recognise that alcohol is an addictive drug, and the population may be prepared to pay more to drink the amount they now feel they need. PMID:21861905

Energy environment study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangways, R.

1981-01-01

The international demand for and supply of oil between the years 1980 and 2000 is assessed and future world oil prices and their implications for the price of jet fuel are estimated. Three critical questions are investigated: (1) how long will the world supply of oil continue to keep pace with its demand under likely trends in its use and discovery; (2) at what price will demand and supply clear the world oil market; (3) what does the analysis imply about the price of jet fuel. Projection of oil price is based upon supply and demand, which is consistent with microeconomic analysis.

75 FR 12320 - Self-Regulatory Organization; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... rule change will amend the definition of ``adjustment increment'' applicable to stock futures. II. Self...). Daily settlement prices and trade prices would continue to be expressed in pennies on a per-contract... settlement price the following day is $50.05, a mark-to-market of $50.05-$49.875 = $0.1750, or $17.50 per...

Future Pacific Rim flows and prices of softwood logs, differentiated by grade.

Treesearch

Donald F. Flora; Andrea L. Anderson; Wendy J. McGInnls

1990-01-01

By 2000, prices are expected to rise significantly for medium-grade logs and modestly for low-grade logs. World economic cycles may obscure, however, the upward price trends. Exports from the United States of medium grades are expected to remain stable, while volumes of lower grades are projected to remain level through 1995 and then decline because of competition....

Essays on oil price volatility and irreversible investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Daniel J.

In chapter 1, we provide an extensive and systematic evaluation of the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of daily spot crude oil prices. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered significant gains in forecasting performance of Markov Switching GARCH models over GARCH models for the volatility of financial assets and crude oil futures. We find that, for spot oil price returns, non-switching models perform better in the short run, whereas switching models tend to do better at longer horizons. In chapter 2, I investigate the impact of volatility on firms' irreversible investment decisions using real options theory. Cost incurred in oil drilling is considered sunk cost, thus irreversible. I collect detailed data on onshore, development oil well drilling on the North Slope of Alaska from 2003 to 2014. Volatility is modeled by constructing GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH forecasts based on monthly real oil prices, and realized volatility from 5-minute intraday returns of oil futures prices. Using a duration model, I show that oil price volatility generally has a negative relationship with the hazard rate of drilling an oil well both when aggregating all the fields, and in individual fields.

Consumer health plan choice: current knowledge and future directions.

PubMed

Scanlon, D P; Chernew, M; Lave, J R

1997-01-01

A keystone of the competitive strategy in health insurance markets is the assumption that "consumers" can make informed choices based on the costs and quality of competing health plans, and that selection effects are not large. However, little is known about how individuals use information other than price in the decision making process. This review summarizes the state of knowledge about how individuals make choices among health plans and outlines an agenda for future research. We find that the existing literature on health plan choice is no longer sufficient given the widespread growth and acceptance of managed care, and the increased proportion of consumers' income now going toward the purchase of health plans. Instead, today's environment of health plan choice requires better understanding of how plan attributes other than price influence plan choice, how other variables such as health status interact with plan attributes in the decision making process, and how specific populations differ from one another in terms of the sensitivity of their health plan choices to these different types of variables.

Has The Era Of Slow Growth For Prescription Drug Spending Ended?

PubMed Central

Aitken, Murray; Berndt, Ernst R.; Cutler, David; Kleinrock, Michael; Maini, Luca

2016-01-01

In the period 2005–13 the US prescription drug market grew at an average annual pace of only 1.8 percent in real terms on an invoice price basis (that is, in constant dollars and before manufacturers’ rebates and discounts). But the growth rate increased dramatically in 2014, when the market expanded by 11.5 percent—which raised questions about future trends. We determined the impact of manufacturers’ rebates and discounts on prices and identified the underlying factors likely to influence prescription spending over the next decade. These include a strengthening of the innovation pipeline; consolidation among buyers such as wholesalers, pharmacy benefit managers, and health insurers; and reduced incidence of patent expirations, which means that fewer less costly generic drug substitutes will enter the market than in the recent past. While various forecasts indicate that pharmaceutical spending growth will moderate from its 2014 level, the business tension between buyers and sellers could play out in many different ways. This suggests that future spending trends remain highly uncertain. PMID:27605638

Rare earths: Market disruption, innovation, and global supply chains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggert, Roderick; Wadia, Cyrus; Anderson, Corby; Bauer, Diana; Fields, Fletcher; Meinert, Lawrence D.; Taylor, Patrick

2016-01-01

Rare earths, sometimes called the vitamins of modern materials, captured public attention when their prices increased more than ten-fold in 2010 and 2011. As prices fell between 2011 and 2016, rare earths receded from public view—but less visibly they became a major focus of innovative activity in companies, government laboratories and universities. Geoscientists worked to better understand the resource base and improve our knowledge about mineral deposits that will be mines in the future. Process engineers carried out research that is making primary production and recycling more efficient. Materials scientists and engineers searched for substitutes that will require fewer or no rare earths while providing properties comparable or superior to those of existing materials. As a result, even though global supply chains are not significantly different now than they were before the market disruption, the innovative activity motivated by the disruption likely will have far-reaching, if unpredictable, consequences for supply chains of rare earths in the future.

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

2013-03-01

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

The Future of School Breakfast: An Analysis of Evidence-Based Practices to Improve School Breakfast Participation in Washington State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosehauer, Katie

2013-01-01

School breakfast is associated with a host of positive outcomes, such as improved health and attendance, reduced behavioral problems, and increased academic achievement. Unfortunately, a majority of Washington students who qualify for free or reduced-price breakfasts do not currently receive one at school, with many students eating no breakfast at…

Agriculture and Energy: Implications for Food Security, Water, and Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokgoz, S.; Zhang, W.; Msangi, S.; Bhandary, P.

2011-12-01

Sustainable production of agricultural commodities and growth of international trade in these goods are challenged as never before by supply-side constraints (such as climate change, water and land scarcity, and environmental degradation) and by demand-side dynamics (volatility in food and energy markets, the strengthening food-energy linkage, population growth, and income growth). On the one hand, the rapidly expanding demand can potentially create new market opportunities for agriculture. On the other hand, there are many threats to a sufficient response by the supply side to meet this growing and changing demand. Agricultural production systems in many countries are neither resource-efficient, nor producing according to their full potential. The stock of natural resources such as land, water, nutrients, energy, and genetic diversity is shrinking relative to demand, and their use must become increasingly efficient in order to reduce environmental impacts and preserve the planet's productive capacity. World energy prices have increased rapidly in recent years. At the same time, agriculture has become more energy-intensive. Higher energy costs have pushed up the cost of producing, transporting and processing agricultural commodities, driving up commodity prices. Higher energy costs have also affected water use and availability through increased costs of water extraction, conveyance and desalinization, higher demand for hydroelectric power, and increased cost of subsidizing water services. In the meantime, the development of biofuels has diverted increasing amounts of agricultural land and water resources to the production of biomass-based renewable energy. This more "intensified" linkage between agriculture and energy comes at a time when there are other pressures on the world's limited resources. The related high food prices, especially those in the developing countries, have led to setbacks in the poverty alleviation effort among the global community with more population under hunger and poverty. In light of these threats and opportunities facing the global food system, the proposed study takes a long-term perspective and addresses the main medium and long- term drivers of agricultural markets using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade developed by the Environment and Production Technology Division of IFPRI to project future production, consumption, and trade of key agricultural commodities. The main objective of the study is to analyze the link between energy and agricultural markets, focusing on the "new" role of agriculture as a supplier of energy for transportation through biofuels, and the subsequent impact on land use and demand for water from the agricultural sector. In this context, this study incorporates various scenarios of future energy demand and energy price impacts on global agricultural markets (food prices and food security), water use implications (irrigation water consumption by agricultural sector), and land use implications (changes in national and global crop area). The scenarios are designed to understand the impact of energy prices on biofuel production, cost of production for agricultural crops, conversion of rainfed area to irrigated area, and necessary levels of crop productivity growth to counter these effects.

77 FR 77038 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Notice of Intent to Renew Collection, Futures Volume...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-31

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Agency Information Collection Activities: Notice of Intent to Renew Collection, Futures Volume, Open Interest, Price, Deliveries and Exchange of Futures for Physicals AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading...

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

Coupling mechanism of electric vehicle and grid under the background of smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Mingyu; Li, Dezhi; Chen, Rongjun; Shu, Han; He, Yongxiu

2018-02-01

With the development of smart distribution technology in the future, electric vehicle users can not only charge reasonably based on peak-valley price, they can also discharge electricity into the power grid to realize their economic benefit when it’s necessary and thus promote peak load shifting. According to the characteristic that future electric vehicles can discharge, this paper studies the interaction effect between electric vehicles and the grid based on TOU (time of use) Price Strategy. In this paper, four scenarios are used to compare the change of grid load after implementing TOU Price Strategy. The results show that the wide access of electric vehicles can effectively reduce peak and valley difference.

Drivers and rates of stock assessments in the United States

PubMed Central

Thorson, James T.; Melnychuk, Michael C.; Methot, Richard; Blackhart, Kristan

2018-01-01

Fisheries management is most effective when based on scientific estimates of sustainable fishing rates. While some simple approaches allow estimation of harvest limits, more data-intensive stock assessments are generally required to evaluate the stock’s biomass and fishing rates relative to sustainable levels. Here we evaluate how stock characteristics relate to the rate of new assessments in the United States. Using a statistical model based on time-to-event analysis and 569 coastal marine fish and invertebrate stocks landed in commercial fisheries, we quantify the impact of region, habitat, life-history, and economic factors on the annual probability of being assessed. Although the majority of landings come from assessed stocks in all regions, less than half of the regionally-landed species currently have been assessed. As expected, our time-to-event model identified landed tonnage and ex-vessel price as the dominant factors determining increased rates of new assessments. However, we also found that after controlling for landings and price, there has been a consistent bias towards assessing larger-bodied species. A number of vulnerable groups such as rockfishes (Scorpaeniformes) and groundsharks (Carcharhiniformes) have a relatively high annual probability of being assessed after controlling for their relatively small tonnage and low price. Due to relatively low landed tonnage and price of species that are currently unassessed, our model suggests that the number of assessed stocks will increase more slowly in future decades. PMID:29750789

Why do stumpage prices increase more than lumber prices?

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; John E. Baumgras; John E. Baumgras

1998-01-01

Every sawmiller who has been in business more than 5 years realizes that hardwood stumpage prices tend to increase faster than lumber prices, decreasing the margin between these two prices. Although increases in stumpage versus lumber prices are readily apparent, the reason for the decrease in the margin is not. Recent research findings indicate that the stumpage/...

Determinants of Cat Choice and Outcomes for Adult Cats and Kittens Adopted from an Australian Animal Shelter.

PubMed

Zito, Sarah; Paterson, Mandy; Vankan, Dianne; Morton, John; Bennett, Pauleen; Phillips, Clive

2015-04-29

The percentage of adult cats euthanized in animal shelters is greater than that of kittens because adult cats are less likely to be adopted. This study aimed to provide evidence to inform the design of strategies to encourage adult cat adoptions. One such strategy is to discount adoption prices, but there are concerns that this may result in poor adoption outcomes. We surveyed 382 cat adopters at the time of adoption, to assess potential determinants of adopters' cat age group choice (adult or kitten) and, for adult cat adopters, the price they are willing to pay. The same respondents were surveyed again 6-12 months after the adoption to compare outcomes between cat age groups and between adult cats in two price categories. Most adopters had benevolent motivations for adopting from the shelter and had put considerable thought into the adoption and requirements for responsible ownership. However, adult cat adopters were more likely to have been influenced by price than kitten adopters. Adoption outcomes were generally positive for both adult cats and kittens and for adult cats adopted at low prices. The latter finding alleviates concerns about the outcomes of "low-cost" adoptions in populations, such as the study population, and lends support for the use of "low-cost" adoptions as an option for attempting to increase adoption rates. In addition, the results provide information that can be used to inform future campaigns aimed at increasing the number of adult cat adoptions, particularly in devising marketing strategies for adult cats.

Marijuana and tobacco cigarettes: Estimating their behavioral economic relationship using purchasing tasks.

PubMed

Peters, Erica N; Rosenberry, Zachary R; Schauer, Gillian L; O'Grady, Kevin E; Johnson, Patrick S

2017-06-01

Although marijuana and tobacco are commonly coused, the nature of their relationship has not been fully elucidated. Behavioral economics has characterized the relationship between concurrently available commodities but has not been applied to marijuana and tobacco couse. U.S. adults ≥18 years who coused marijuana and tobacco cigarettes were recruited via Mechanical Turk, a crowdsourcing service by Amazon. Participants (N = 82) completed online purchasing tasks assessing hypothetical marijuana or tobacco cigarette puff consumption across a range of per-puff prices; 2 single-commodity tasks assessed these when only 1 commodity was available, and 2 cross-commodity tasks assessed these in the presence of a concurrently available fixed-price commodity. Purchasing tasks generated measures of demand elasticity, that is, sensitivity of consumption to prices. In single-commodity tasks, consumption of tobacco cigarette puffs (elasticity of demand: α = 0.0075; 95% confidence interval [0.0066, 0.0085], R² = 0.72) and of marijuana puffs (α = .0044; 95% confidence interval [0.0038, 0.0049], R² = 0.71) declined significantly with increases in price per puff. In cross-commodity tasks when both tobacco cigarette puffs and marijuana puffs were available, demand for 1 commodity was independent of price increases in the other commodity (ps > .05). Results revealed that, in this small sample, marijuana and tobacco cigarettes did not substitute for each other and did not complement each other; instead, they were independent of each other. These preliminary results can inform future studies assessing the economic relationship between tobacco and marijuana in the quickly changing policy climate in the United States. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Will biomedical innovation change the future of healthcare?

PubMed

Schmid, Esther F; Ashkenazy, Rebecca; Merson, James; Smith, Dennis A

2009-11-01

Healthcare costs in all industrial nations have increased and payors are starting to look at new ways to contain costs and at new funding models. The business model of pharmaceutical companies is also undergoing rapid changes - potentially disruptive new modalities, such as RNAi, therapeutic vaccines, and cell therapy are emerging, R&D costs have increased year on year, pressures on drug pricing and the efficacy and safety of medicines are mounting. Change is therefore inevitable and already ongoing in healthcare systems and pharmaceutical companies alike. This paper presents several major forces which could drive different future scenarios including: R&D costs, the source of payments for medicines and the emergence of new modalities.

The effect of virtual bidding on forward premiums in the New York wholesale energy market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, Andrew D.

In many parts of the United States, the power industry has been deregulated and replaced with regional wholesale energy markets, where utilities purchase electricity from generators at competitive market rates for subsequent distribution to customers. Numerous studies have shown that in each of these markets, the price of energy purchased in the Day Ahead (futures) market exceeds the price in the Real Time (spot) market on average. The existence of this "forward premium" is evidence of market inefficiency and may indicate participants' aversion to risk in the Real Time market or the exercise of market power by generators. To address this inefficiency, the New York Independent System Operator introduced a virtual bidding system within its wholesale market, which permitted participants to engage in purely financial transactions and hedge their exposure to risk. The new policy was expected to promote price convergence by allowing bidders to arbitrage expected differences between Day Ahead and Real Time prices. This study examines whether the presence of virtual bidding was associated with a change in the mean value and magnitude of forward premiums in the NYISO energy market. The study applies a GARCH model to hourly pricing data from 2001 to 2009, controlling for temperature and economic activity. The results indicate that prior to 2005, virtual bidding was associated with significantly lower and less volatile forward premiums in New York's five most congested zones but with increased premiums in the remaining less congested zones. However, when the entire period from 2001 to 2009 is examined, the results suggest that prices have become significantly more divergent in the presence of virtual bidding. Closer examination of the data reveals a dramatic increase in forward premium volatility across all zones beginning in 2005 that is not accounted for by temperature or economic activity and may have biased the results. This study attempts to account for this unexplained shift in price behavior by limiting the analysis to off-peak hours and by substituting an adjusted measure of forward premium, but neither approach yields results consistent with the pre-2005 effects. Further study is needed to identify the potential causes of the sudden increase in forward premium volatility and isolate the effect of virtual bidding on NYISO price convergence.

Do increases in cigarette prices lead to increases in sales of cigarettes with high tar and nicotine yields?

PubMed

Farrelly, Matthew C; Loomis, Brett R; Mann, Nathan H

2007-10-01

We used scanner data on cigarette prices and sales collected from supermarkets across the United States from 1994 to 2004 to test the hypothesis that cigarette prices are positively correlated with sales of cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content. During this period the average inflation-adjusted price for menthol cigarettes increased 55.8%. Price elasticities from multivariate regression models suggest that this price increase led to an increase of 1.73% in sales-weighted average tar yields and a 1.28% increase in sales-weighted average nicotine yields for menthol cigarettes. The 50.5% price increase of nonmenthol varieties over the same period yielded an estimated increase of 1% in tar per cigarette but no statistically significant increase in nicotine yields. An ordered probit model of the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette strength (ultra-light, light, full flavor, unfiltered) offers an explanation: As cigarette prices increase, the probability that stronger cigarette types will be sold increases. This effect is larger for menthol than for nonmenthol cigarettes. Our results are consistent with earlier population-based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies showing that higher cigarette prices and taxes are associated with increasing consumption of higher-yield cigarettes by smokers.

Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

PubMed

Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

2006-12-01

Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are increased relative to 2005 levels, returns to the investment in generic advertising can be improved. Specifically, each additional real dollar invested in generic advertising for fluid milk and cheese products over the forecast period would result in an additional 5.61 dollars in producer revenues.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Tobacco price increases and population interest in smoking cessation in Japan between 2004 and 2016: a Google Trends analysis.

PubMed

Tabuchi, Takahiro; Fukui, Keisuke; Gallus, Silvano

2018-01-31

Tobacco price increases can generate increased public interest in smoking cessation, but it is not clear how long this interest lasts. Our objective was to evaluate the duration of the impact of cigarette price increase in Japan using Google search data. Monthly or daily aggregated Google search volume for smoking cessation in Japan from 2004 to 2016 was collected in terms of relative search volume (RSV) ranging from 0-100. Using monthly RSV data, we evaluated possible relationships between the RSVs and tobacco control measures in Japan. Time periods within which the impact of search volume significantly increased were identified by cluster detection test, using daily RSV data. A spike in RSV preceding the enforcement of a cigarette price increase revealed an anticipation effect. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest monthly RSV spikes were observed in July 2006 (RSV=66), when cigarette prices increased by 11%, and in September (RSV=90) and October 2010 (RSV=100), when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Regarding daily RSV, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 (52 days) was longer than that in 2006 (17 days). In 2010, a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. After the onset of the price increase, a cluster of 27 days was detected. When the cigarette price increased due to consumption tax in April 2014, almost no anticipation effect was observed. The population impact of tobacco price increases on smoking cessation may be assessed using Google Trends data. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer-lasting effect on population interest in cessation, but the impact may continue for a relatively short time. To examine the duration of the impact of cigarette price increases on population interest in smoking cessation in Japan, Google search data for smoking cessation was analyzed. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest spikes of monthly relative search volume (RSV) were observed in October 2010, when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Analyzing daily RSV data, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 was 52 days and a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer-lasting effect, but the population impact continues for a relatively short time. Further increases in the price of cigarettes are necessary. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Alcohol prices, beverage quality, and the demand for alcohol: quality substitutions and price elasticities.

PubMed

Gruenewald, Paul J; Ponicki, William R; Holder, Harold D; Romelsjö, Anders

2006-01-01

Although the published literature on alcohol beverage taxes, prices, sales, and related problems treats alcoholic beverages as a simple good, alcohol is a complex good composed of different beverage types (i.e., beer, wine, and spirits) and quality brands (e.g., high-, medium-, and low-quality beers). As a complex good, consumers may make substitutions between purchases of different beverage types and brands in response to price increases. For this reason, the availability of a broad range of beverage prices provides opportunities for consumers to mitigate the effects of average price increases through quality substitutions; a change in beverage choice in response to price increases to maintain consumption. Using Swedish price and sales data provided by Systembolaget for the years 1984 through 1994, this study assessed the relationships between alcohol beverage prices, beverage quality, and alcohol sales. The study examined price effects on alcohol consumption using seemingly unrelated regression equations to model the impacts of price increases within 9 empirically defined quality classes across beverage types. The models enabled statistical assessments of both own-price and cross-price effects between types and classes. The results of these analyses showed that consumers respond to price increases by altering their total consumption and by varying their brand choices. Significant reductions in sales were observed in response to price increases, but these effects were mitigated by significant substitutions between quality classes. The findings suggest that the net impacts of purposeful price policy to reduce consumption will depend on how such policies affect the range of prices across beverage brands.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Heeter, Jenny

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular,more » the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.« less

Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Heeter, Jenny

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular,more » the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.« less

Determinants of Cat Choice and Outcomes for Adult Cats and Kittens Adopted from an Australian Animal Shelter

PubMed Central

Zito, Sarah; Paterson, Mandy; Vankan, Dianne; Morton, John; Bennett, Pauleen; Phillips, Clive

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Commonly, more adult cats than kittens are euthanized in animal shelters. We surveyed 382 cat adopters to assess adoption outcomes and potential determinants of adopters’ choice of cat age group and price. Most adopters had benevolent motivations for adopting from the shelter and had put considerable thought into the adoption and responsible ownership requirements. However, adult cat adopters were more likely to have been influenced by price than kitten adopters. Adoption outcomes were generally positive in all age and adoption price groups. This study provides evidence to inform the design of strategies to encourage adult cat adoptions. Abstract The percentage of adult cats euthanized in animal shelters is greater than that of kittens because adult cats are less likely to be adopted. This study aimed to provide evidence to inform the design of strategies to encourage adult cat adoptions. One such strategy is to discount adoption prices, but there are concerns that this may result in poor adoption outcomes. We surveyed 382 cat adopters at the time of adoption, to assess potential determinants of adopters’ cat age group choice (adult or kitten) and, for adult cat adopters, the price they are willing to pay. The same respondents were surveyed again 6–12 months after the adoption to compare outcomes between cat age groups and between adult cats in two price categories. Most adopters had benevolent motivations for adopting from the shelter and had put considerable thought into the adoption and requirements for responsible ownership. However, adult cat adopters were more likely to have been influenced by price than kitten adopters. Adoption outcomes were generally positive for both adult cats and kittens and for adult cats adopted at low prices. The latter finding alleviates concerns about the outcomes of “low-cost” adoptions in populations, such as the study population, and lends support for the use of “low-cost” adoptions as an option for attempting to increase adoption rates. In addition, the results provide information that can be used to inform future campaigns aimed at increasing the number of adult cat adoptions, particularly in devising marketing strategies for adult cats. PMID:26479236

Generic medicine pricing in Europe: current issues and future perspective.

PubMed

Simoens, Steven

2008-01-01

This editorial discusses a number of trends affecting the pricing of generic medicines in Europe. With respect to pricing, recent evidence has emerged that European generic medicine manufacturers face competition from Indian manufacturers; that the price level of generic medicines varies substantially between European countries; and that generic medicine manufacturers engage in competition by discount rather than price competition in France, The Netherlands and the UK. These trends suggest that there may be scope for further reducing the prices of generic medicines in several countries. In relation to reference pricing, most European countries have incorporated market incentives within reference pricing systems with a view to promoting price competition. The European experience indicates that the generic medicines industry delivers competitive prices under a reference pricing system if demand-side policies are in place that stimulate physicians, pharmacists and patients to use generic medicines. Finally, caution needs to be exercised when focusing on the drivers of generic medicine pricing as these drivers not only vary between countries, but may also vary within a country. Manufacturers of originator and generic medicines do not take a single pricing approach following patent expiry, but vary their pricing strategy from molecule to molecule.

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phil Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios ofmore » vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.« less

Impacts of changing hardwood lumber consumption and price on stumpage and sawlog prices in Ohio

Treesearch

William Luppold; Matthew Bumgardner; T. Eric. McConnell

2014-01-01

In the early 2000s, increasing US furniture imports preceded declining US hardwood lumber demand and price. In the summer of 2002, however, hardwood lumber prices started to increase as demand by construction industries increased. By the mid-2000s, hardwood lumber prices hit all-time highs. Lumber prices hit all-time highs for red oak (Quercus spp...

System Dynamics Modeling of Households' Electricity Consumption and Cost-Income Ratio: a Case Study of Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bariss, Uldis; Bazbauers, Gatis; Blumberga, Andra; Blumberga, Dagnija

2017-11-01

Increased energy efficiency of the building sector is high on the list of priorities for energy policy since better energy efficiency would help to reduce impact on climate change and increase security of energy supply. One aim of the present study was to find a relative effect of growth of demand for energy services due to changes in income, energy consumption per unit of demand due to technological development, changes in electricity price and household income on household electricity consumption in Latvia. The method applied included system dynamics modeling and data from a household survey regarding the relationship between electricity saving activities and the electricity cost-income ratio. The results revealed that, in direct contrast to the expected, a potential reduction of the electricity consumption is rather insensitive to electricity price and electricity cost-income ratio, and that the efficiency of technologies could be the main drivers for future electricity savings. The results suggest that support to advancement of technologies and faster replacement of inefficient ones rather than influencing the energy price could be effective energy policy measures. The model, developed in the study could be used in similar assessments in other countries.

Strategic wholesale pricing for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart.

PubMed

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

Strategic Wholesale Pricing for an Incumbent Supplier Facing with a Competitive Counterpart

PubMed Central

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting. PMID:25614891

[The aspects of pricing policy in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical sector].

PubMed

Dzhalilova, K I; Alieva, K Ia

2012-01-01

The effect of macro-, middle- and microeconomic factors on price formation in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical market has been studied. Worldwide pharmaceutical leaders have the goals to become leader on the pharmaceutical market of Azerbaijan and maximize their market share. Non-leaders pharmaceutical companies use different strategies of price formation: prime cost plus markup, or price formation on the base of current prices. It was revealed that domestic pharmaceutical market has high demand elasticity. Future market development is related to stimulation of product development, and hard penetration to the market through realization of price formation strategy. Non-state pharmaceutical organizations to achieve the purpose of survive in conditions of high competition should take in to account the factor perceptions of assortment by customers.

New design and new challenge for space large ultralightweight and stable Zerodur© mirror for future high resolution observation instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devilliers, C.; Du Jeu, C.; Costes, V.; Suau, A.; Girault, N.; Cornillon, L.

2017-11-01

Space telescopes pupil diameter increases continuously to reach higher resolutions and associated optical scheme become more sensitive. As a consequence the size of these telescopes but also their stability requirements increase. Therefore, mass of space telescopes becomes a strong design driver to be still compatible with price competitive launcher capabilities. Moreover satellite agility requirements are more and more severe and instruments shall be compatible with quick evolution of thermal environment.

Electronic journal access: how does it affect the print subscription price?*

PubMed Central

Chen, Frances L.; Wrynn, Paul; Rieke, Judith L.

2001-01-01

Objective: This study examined the rates of print journal subscription price increases according to the type of available electronic access. The types of access included: electronic priced separately from the print, combination print with “free online” access, and aggregated, defined here as electronic access purchased as part of a collection. The percentages of print price increases were compared to each other and to that for titles available only in print. The authors were not aware of prior objective research in this area. Methods: The authors analyzed the percentage print price increases of 300 journals over a five-year time period. The titles were grouped according to type of available electronic access. The median and mean percentage print price increases were calculated and plotted for all titles within each group. Results: Using both the median and the mean to look at the percentage print price increases over five years, it was obvious that print prices for journals with electronic access exceeded journals that did not offer an electronic option. Electronic priced separately averaged 3% to 5% higher than print only titles using both measures. Combination print with “free online” access had higher increases from 1996 to 1999, but, in 2000, their percentage increases were about the same as print only titles. The rate of price increases for aggregated titles consistently went down over the past five years. Journals with no electronic option showed the lowest percentage rates of print price increase. Conclusions: The authors' findings reveal that the increases of print prices for their sample of titles were higher if a type of electronic access was offered. According to the results of this study, aggregated collections currently represent the electronic option whose percentage price increase for print prices was lowest. However, the uneven fluctuations in rates of subscription prices revealed that the pricing of journals with electronic access is still evolving. More study is recommended to see if the trends observed in this study are sustained over a longer time period. PMID:11837258

New environmentally-benign concepts in wood protection: the combination of organic biocides and non-biocidal additives

Treesearch

Frederick Green; Tor P. Schultz

2003-01-01

The principal wood preservative for residential use is currently a broad-spectrum biocide which contains As, Cr and Cu. However, the use of totally organic wood preservative systems in certain applications or localities may be required in the future. This will greatly increase the price of treated wood. The combination of organic biocides with non-biocidal additives to...

Potential Effects of the Fuelwood Market on Wood-using Industries in Northern New England and New York

Treesearch

Susan B. Remington; Paul E. Sendak; Paul E. Sendak

1984-01-01

The increased use of fuelwood in northern New England and New York has raised concern about future supplies of manufactured wood products. Direct effects were measured by estimating the competitive advantages of the kraft pulp, waferboard, and oriented strand board industries in purchasing wood. lncreased stumpage prices in the region would have the greatest impact on...

14 CFR 381.13 - Price increases.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Price increases. 381.13 Section 381.13... REGULATIONS SPECIAL EVENT TOURS § 381.13 Price increases. (a) Should the tour operator increase a participant's tour price by more than 10 percent (aggregate of all increases to that participant), that...

Retaining the Value of PV at High Penetration Workshop

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, Sarah; Bolen, Michael

PV prices have dropped and are now attractive without incentives for peaking applications in some locations. Modeling suggests and, empirically, some regions demonstrate that as PV penetration increases its value decreases, predominantly due to a decrease in energy and capacity value. It is not apparent what technologies and price may be needed for PV to supply tens of percent of electricity in the most economically efficient manner. A 1-day workshop was co-sponsored by EPRI and NREL with support from ASU. A dozen presentations and discussions introduced how the interplay of various technologies impact the value of PV, identified technical challengesmore » and gaps impeding implementation, and discussed future R&D needs and opportunities.« less

Digitization and its discontents: future shock in predictive oncology.

PubMed

Epstein, Richard J

2010-02-01

Clinical cancer care is being transformed by a high-technology informatics revolution fought out between the forces of personalized (biomarker-guided) and depersonalized (bureaucracy-controlled) medicine. Factors triggering this conflict include the online proliferation of treatment algorithms, rising prices of biological drug therapies, increasing sophistication of genomic-based predictive tools, and the growing entrepreneurialism of offshore treatment facilities. The resulting Napster-like forces unleashed within the oncology marketplace will deliver incremental improvements in cost-efficacy to global healthcare consumers. There will also be a price to pay, however, as the rising wave of digitization encourages third-party payers to make more use of biomarkers for tightening reimbursement criteria. Hence, as in other digitally transformed industries, a new paradigm of professional service delivery-less centered on doctor-patient relationships than in the past, and more dependent on pricing and marketing for standardized biomarker-defined indications-seems set to emerge as the unpredicted deliverable from this brave new world of predictive oncology. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Framework for resilience in material supply chains, with a case study from the 2010 Rare Earth Crisis.

PubMed

Sprecher, Benjamin; Daigo, Ichiro; Murakami, Shinsuke; Kleijn, Rene; Vos, Matthijs; Kramer, Gert Jan

2015-06-02

In 2010, Chinese export restrictions caused the price of the rare earth element neodymium to increase by a factor of 10, only to return to almost normal levels in the following months. This despite the fact that the restrictions were not lifted. The significant price peak shows that this material supply chain was only weakly resistant to a major supply disruption. However, the fact that prices rapidly returned to lower levels implies a certain resilience. With the help of a novel approach, based on resilience theory combined with a material flow analysis (MFA) based representation of the neodymium magnet (NdFeB) supply chain, we show that supply chain resilience is composed of various mechanisms, including (a) resistance, (b) rapidity, and (c) flexibility, that originate from different parts of the supply chain. We make recommendations to improve the capacity of the NdFeB system to deal with future disruptions and discuss potential generalities for the resilience of other material supply chains.

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index

PubMed Central

Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-01-01

Objectives. We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. Methods. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in “food deserts” in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Results. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. Conclusions. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity. PMID:25521881

Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis

PubMed Central

Bader, Pearl; Boisclair, David; Ferrence, Roberta

2011-01-01

Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success. PMID:22163198

Effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on smoking behavior in high risk populations: a knowledge synthesis.

PubMed

Bader, Pearl; Boisclair, David; Ferrence, Roberta

2011-11-01

Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success.

Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer

One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.

Mechanical vs. informational components of price impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyne Farmer, J.; Zamani, N.

2007-01-01

We study the problem of what causes prices to change. It is well known that trading impacts prices — orders to buy drive the price up, and orders to sell drive it down. We introduce a means of decomposing the total impact of trading into two components, defining the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and the informational impact as the remainder of the total impact once mechanical impact is removed. This decomposition is performed using order book data from the London Stock Exchange. The average mechanical impact of a market order decays to zero as a function of time, at an asymptotic rate that is consistent with a power law with an exponent of roughly 1.7. In contrast the average informational impact builds to approach a constant value. Initially the impact is entirely mechanical, and is about half as big as the asymptotic informational impact. The size of the informational impact is positively correlated to mechanical impact. For cases where the mechanical impact is zero for all times, we find that the informational impact is negative, i.e. buy market orders that have no mechanical impact at all generate strong negative price responses.

An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

Size of clinical trials and Introductory prices of prophylactic vaccine series

PubMed Central

Weinberg, Steven H.; Butchart, Amy T.; Davis, Matthew M.

2012-01-01

Costs of completing the recommended immunization schedule have increased over the last decade. Access to prophylactic vaccines may become limited due to financing obstacles within current delivery systems. Vaccine prices reflect research and development expenses incurred by vaccine manufacturers, including costs associated with evaluating candidate vaccines in human subjects. If the number of subjects in clinical trials is increasing over time and associated with vaccine price, this may help explain increases in prices of vaccine series. We examined whether: (A) the initial public- and private-sector prices for recommended prophylactic vaccine series licensed and recommended in the US increased from 2000–2011, (B) the number of human subjects per licensed vaccine increased during the time period, and (C) the number of human subjects was associated with the initial public–and private–sector prices of the vaccine series. In regression analyses of 13 vaccines, approval year was not significantly associated with the number of human subjects, initial public-sector prices, or initial private-sector prices. While the number of phase II subjects was not significantly associated with prices, the numbers of phase III and combined late phase (phases II + III) subjects were significantly associated with initial public- and private-sector series prices (p < 0.05). The association between number of subjects and initial prices demonstrated diminishing marginal increases in price with increasing numbers of subjects. These findings may help guide the number of subjects required by the FDA in clinical trials, in order to reduce expenses for manufacturers and thereby help mitigate increases in initial vaccine series prices. PMID:22854668

Size of clinical trials and Introductory prices of prophylactic vaccine series.

PubMed

Weinberg, Steven H; Butchart, Amy T; Davis, Matthew M

2012-08-01

Costs of completing the recommended immunization schedule have increased over the last decade. Access to prophylactic vaccines may become limited due to financing obstacles within current delivery systems. Vaccine prices reflect research and development expenses incurred by vaccine manufacturers, including costs associated with evaluating candidate vaccines in human subjects. If the number of subjects in clinical trials is increasing over time and associated with vaccine price, this may help explain increases in prices of vaccine series. We examined whether: (A) the initial public- and private-sector prices for recommended prophylactic vaccine series licensed and recommended in the US increased from 2000-2011, (B) the number of human subjects per licensed vaccine increased during the time period, and (C) the number of human subjects was associated with the initial public-and private-sector prices of the vaccine series. In regression analyses of 13 vaccines, approval year was not significantly associated with the number of human subjects, initial public-sector prices, or initial private-sector prices. While the number of phase II subjects was not significantly associated with prices, the numbers of phase III and combined late phase (phases II + III) subjects were significantly associated with initial public- and private-sector series prices (p < 0.05). The association between number of subjects and initial prices demonstrated diminishing marginal increases in price with increasing numbers of subjects. These findings may help guide the number of subjects required by the FDA in clinical trials, in order to reduce expenses for manufacturers and thereby help mitigate increases in initial vaccine series prices.

Accounting for the drug life cycle and future drug prices in cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Hoyle, Martin

2011-01-01

Economic evaluations of health technologies typically assume constant real drug prices and model only the cohort of patients currently eligible for treatment. It has recently been suggested that, in the UK, we should assume that real drug prices decrease at 4% per annum and, in New Zealand, that real drug prices decrease at 2% per annum and at patent expiry the drug price falls. It has also recently been suggested that we should model multiple future incident cohorts. In this article, the cost effectiveness of drugs is modelled based on these ideas. Algebraic expressions are developed to capture all costs and benefits over the entire life cycle of a new drug. The lifetime of a new drug in the UK, a key model parameter, is estimated as 33 years, based on the historical lifetime of drugs in England over the last 27 years. Under the proposed methodology, cost effectiveness is calculated for seven new drugs recently appraised in the UK. Cost effectiveness as assessed in the future is also estimated. Whilst the article is framed in mathematics, the findings and recommendations are also explained in non-mathematical language. The 'life-cycle correction factor' is introduced, which is used to convert estimates of cost effectiveness as traditionally calculated into estimates under the proposed methodology. Under the proposed methodology, all seven drugs appear far more cost effective in the UK than published. For example, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio decreases by 46%, from £61, 900 to £33, 500 per QALY, for cinacalcet versus best supportive care for end-stage renal disease, and by 45%, from £31,100 to £17,000 per QALY, for imatinib versus interferon-α for chronic myeloid leukaemia. Assuming real drug prices decrease over time, the chance that a drug is publicly funded increases over time, and is greater when modelling multiple cohorts than with a single cohort. Using the methodology (compared with traditional methodology) all drugs in the UK and New Zealand are predicted to be more cost effective. It is suggested that the willingness-to-pay threshold should be reduced in the UK and New Zealand. The ranking of cost effectiveness will change with drugs assessed as relatively more cost effective and medical devices and surgical procedures relatively less cost effective than previously thought. The methodology is very simple to implement. It is suggested that the model should be parameterized for other countries.

The welfare effects of raising household energy prices in Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freund, C.L.; Wallich, C.I.

1996-06-01

We examine the welfare effects from increasing household energy prices in Poland. Subsidizing household energy prices, common in the transition economies, is shown to be highly regressive. The wealthy spend a larger portion of their income on energy and consume more energy in absolute terms. We therefore rule out the oft-used social welfare argument for delaying household energy price increases. Raising prices, while targeting relief to the poor through a social assistance program is the first-best response. However, if governments want to ease the adjustment, several options are open, including: in-kind transfers to the poor, vouchers, in-cash transfers, and lifelinemore » pricing for electricity. Our simulations show that if raising prices to efficient levels is not politically feasible at present and social assistance targeting is sufficiently weak, it may be socially better to use lifeline pricing and a large price increase than an overall, but smaller, price increase.« less

Trends and affordability of cigarette prices: ample room for tax increases and related health gains.

PubMed

Guindon, G E; Tobin, S; Yach, D

2002-03-01

Increasing the price of tobacco products is arguably the most effective method of curbing the prevalence and consumption of tobacco products. Price increases would reduce the global burden of disease brought about by tobacco consumption. To compare cigarette price data from more than 80 countries using varying methods, examine trends in prices and affordability during the 1990s, and explore various policy implications pertaining to tobacco prices. March 2001 cigarette price data from the Economist Intelligence Unit are used to compare cigarette prices across countries. To facilitate comparison and to assess affordability, prices are presented in US dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP) units using the Big Mac index as an indicator of PPP and in terms of minutes of labour required to purchase a pack of cigarettes. Annual real percentage changes in cigarette prices between 1990 and 2000 and annual changes in the minutes of labour required to buy cigarettes between 1991 and 2000 are also calculated to examine trends. Cigarette prices tend to be higher in wealthier countries and in countries that have strong tobacco control programmes. On the other hand, minutes of labour required to purchase cigarettes vary vastly between countries. Trends between 1990 and 2000 in real prices and minutes of labour indicate, with some exceptions, that cigarettes have become more expensive in most developed countries but more affordable in many developing countries. However, in the UK, despite recent increases in price, cigarettes are still more affordable than they were in the 1960s. The results suggest that there is ample room to increase tobacco prices through taxation. In too many countries, cigarette prices have failed to keep up with increases in the general price level of goods and services, rendering them more affordable in 2000 than they were at the beginning of the decade. Opportunities to increase government revenue and improve health through reduced consumption brought about by higher prices have been overlooked in many countries.

Welfare Impact of Virtual Trading on Wholesale Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giraldo, Juan S.

Virtual bidding has become a standard feature of multi-settlement wholesale electricity markets in the United States. Virtual bids are financial instruments that allow market participants to take financial positions in the Day-Ahead (DA) market that are automatically reversed/closed in the Real-Time (RT) market. Most U.S. wholesale electricity markets only have two types of virtual bids: a decrement bid (DEC), which is virtual load, and an increment offer (INC), which is virtual generation. In theory, financial participants create benefits by seeking out profitable bidding opportunities through arbitrage or speculation. Benefits have been argued to take the form of increased competition, price convergence, increased market liquidity, and a more efficient dispatch of generation resources. Studies have found that price convergence between the DA and RT markets improved following the introduction of virtual bidding into wholesale electricity markets. The improvement in price convergence was taken as evidence that market efficiency had increased and many of the theoretical benefits realized. Persistent price differences between the DA and RT markets have led to calls to further expand virtual bidding as a means to address remaining market inefficiencies. However, the argument that price convergence is beneficial is extrapolated from the study of commodity and financial markets and the role of futures for increasing market efficiency in that context. This viewpoint largely ignores details that differentiate wholesale electricity markets from other commodity markets. This dissertation advances the understanding of virtual bidding by evaluating the impact of virtual bidding based on the standard definition of economic efficiency which is social welfare. In addition, an examination of the impacts of another type of virtual bid, up-to-congestion (UTC) transactions is presented. This virtual product significantly increased virtual bidding activity in the PJM interconnection market since it became available to be used by financial traders in September 2010. Stylized models are used to determine the optimal bidding strategy for the different virtual bids under different scenarios. The welfare analysis shows that the main impact of virtual bidding is surplus reallocation and that the impact on market efficiency is small by comparison. The market structure is such that it is more likely to see surplus transfers from consumers to producers. The results also show that outcomes with greater price convergence as a result of virtual bidding activity were not necessarily more efficient, nor do they always correct surplus distribution distortions that result from bias in the DA expectation of RT load. Compared to INCs and DECs, the UTC analysis showed that UTCs do not have the same self-corrective incentives towards price convergence and are less likely to lead to nodal price convergence or correct for surplus distribution distortions caused by uncertainty and bias in the DA expectation of RT load. Additionally, the analysis showed that UTCs allow financial traders to engage in low risk high volume trading strategies that, while profitable, may have little to no impact on price convergence or market efficiency.

The 1986 world oil puzzle: Confusion and anxiety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, S.

1986-01-01

The turbulent international political and economic events of the 1970s and 1980s reinforce the instinctive feeling that the future is inherently unpredictable. Yet we continue to strive for a perception of the future because it is a necessary component of a rational framework for intelligent decision making. In this paper, the chronological evolution of oil pricing is presented to provide an historical perspective to view current events. The outlook for the main determinants of oil price is then examined.

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.« less

Landuse Carbon Implications of a Drawdown of Ethanol Production and an Increase in Well-Managed Pastures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwinckel, C. M.; Phillips, J.

2011-12-01

Over the past 10 years, commodity grain prices have doubled, and world commodity prices have reached their highest levels in over 30 years. The rise in prices culminated in the food price spikes of 2008 and 2011, where food riots erupted in 40 countries. Although studies have pointed to a number of factors leading to the increased food prices, the ethanol industry, whether deservingly or not, is seen as the major factor behind the price spikes. Several recent studies have contributed to the poor public opinion of ethanol by concluding that ethanol is neither a net energy source nor a net reducer of carbon emissions. The impact of these research reports combined with recent spikes in commodity prices has led to fierce political efforts to reduce or eliminate subsidies for ethanol. Opponents of ethanol subsidization won a significant battle with Congress recently voting to eliminate federal blender's tax credits and ethanol import tariffs. If another sharp spike in commodity prices occurs in the near future, some have speculated that ethanol production mandates could be scaled back or eliminated. In the span of less than three years the expected role of ethanol in the agricultural sector has gone from one of rapid growth and longevity, to one of which the societal benefits are being strongly questioned. In light of the rapidly changing expectations regarding the future of ethanol, we believe it is an appropriate time to evaluate the landuse and carbon implications of a scaling down of ethanol production and investigating permanent managed pasture as an alternative land use that could provide carbon benefits. Various USDA programs to promote conservation of, or conversion to, permanent pasture or grassland exist primarily based on the value of decreasing the potential for soil erosion as well as improving water quality. Although grazing systems have long been associated with land degradation in the arid and semi-arid west, new management approaches utilizing some form of rotational grazing are believed to reverse degradation and potentially lead to soil and pasture improvement if well managed, with implications for soil carbon storage. As the debate over societal subsidization of ethanol continues, the scientific communities should prepare for a potential drawdown of ethanol, and be aware of the potential land use impacts. An integrated biogeophysical socioeconomic model is used to evaluate three levels of potential reductions in ethanol production along with the possibility of conversion of non-profitable cropland to pasture management. The integrated model (POLYSYS) is driven by data on economics, terrestrial carbon dynamics, remotely-sensed land cover, and energy consumption. Preliminary results indicate that up to 10 million hectares of cropland could convert to pastureland, reducing agricultural land use emissions by nearly 10 teragrams carbon equivalent (TgCeq), a 36% decline in agricultural land use carbon equivalent emissions.

Is College Pricing Power Pro-Cyclical?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altringer, Levi; Summers, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

We define pricing power as a college's ability to increase its net tuition revenue by raising its sticker-price for tuition. The greater is the positive effect of sticker-price increases on net tuition revenue, the greater is the pricing power. We gauge variation in the pricing power of private, non-profit baccalaureate colleges by estimating this…

[Preliminary influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax up-regulation on cigarette retail price].

PubMed

Feng, G Z; Wang, C X; Yang, J Q; Jiang, Y

2016-10-10

Objective: To evaluate the impact of cigarette excise tax up-regulation on the retail price of cigarettes in 2015. Methods: Nominal and real price of selected cigarette varieties were calculated with data from Tobacco Retail Price Monitoring Project, which was conducted in 10 cities of China from 2013 to 2015. The trend of the cigarette prices changing was analyzed with annual data. Results: A total of 352 varieties of cigarettes were surveyed during the three years. The nominal price of these cigarettes did not change significantly from 2013 to 2014. Compared with nominal price of 2014, the price of 286 varieties increased and the price of 10 most popular varieties increased from 0.6 % to 7.4 % after cigarette excise tax increased, but the actual prices had both rise and fall compared with 2013. Conclusions: Cigarette excise tax raise in 2015 had influence on the retail price of cigarettes. But the increase in retail price was very limited, if factors including inflation and purchasing power are taken into consideration. Therefore, the influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax raise on tobacco control needs further evaluation.

Envisioning a Low-Cost Solar Future: Exploring the Potential Impact of Achieving the SunShot 2030 Targets for Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J; Frew, Bethany A; Gagnon, Pieter J

In the context of recent dramatic solar energy cost reductions, the U.S. Department of Energy set new levelized cost of energy goals for photovoltaics (PV) to achieve by 2030 to enable significantly greater PV adoption: $0.03/kWh for utility-scale, $0.04/kWh for commercial, and $0.05/kWh for residential PV systems. We analyze the potential impacts of achieving these 'SunShot 2030' cost targets for the contiguous United States using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. We consider the impacts under a wide range of future conditions. We find that PV could provide 13%-18% of U.S. electricity demandmore » in 2030 and 28%-64% of demand if the SunShot 2030 goals are achieved, with PV deployment increasing in every state. The availability of low-cost storage has the largest impact on projected deployment, followed by natural gas prices and electricity demand. For comparison, PV deployed under a business-as-usual scenario could provide only 5% of generation in 2030 and 17% in 2050. We find that the high levels of PV deployment explored here lead to lower electricity prices and system costs, lower carbon dioxide emissions, lower water consumption, increased renewable energy curtailment, and increased storage deployment compared with the business-as-usual scenario.« less

Promoting healthy food consumption: a review of state-level policies to improve access to fruits and vegetables.

PubMed

Hood, Carlyn; Martinez-Donate, Ana; Meinen, Amy

2012-12-01

Research indicates poor nutrition is a leading determinant of the development of chronic disease, and increasing fruit and vegetable consumption is one method for decreasing obesity. Many policies have focused on increasing the demand for fruits and vegetables through price reductions and coupons. However, without ensuring a stable supply, increased demand can continue to raise prices, crowding out individuals who may otherwise have purchased fruits and vegetables and ultimately leading to continued disparities in access. This paper presents a review of selected state-level policy options recently proposed or implemented in states across the United States, and provides an evidence-based lens through which food access policy can be shaped in the Midwest. This review and potential framework uses Wisconsin to illustrate the feasibility of different state-level decisions and their potential impact on particular populations. Future supply-side policies to consider include expanding Electronic Benefit Transfer to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC),program and farmers markets, incentivizing the purchase of locally grown produce, assisting local specialty farmers directly, and/or establishing a state-level food policy council. This review reveals that a food policy council would create a more sustainable policy analysis process to better ensure future policy adoption is truly comprehensive, encompassing the production, distribution and purchase of locally grown fruits and vegetables.

A review of the health and economic implications of patent protection, with a specific focus on Thailand.

PubMed

Yamabhai, Inthira; Smith, Richard D

2012-08-01

Although it has been two decades since the Thai Patent Act was amended to comply with the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), there has been little emphasis given to assessing the implications of this amendment. The purpose of this review is to summarize the health and economic impact of patent protection, with a focus on the experience of Thailand. A review of national and international empirical evidence on the health and economic implications of patents from 1980 to 2009 was undertaken. The findings illustrate the role of patent protection in four areas: price, present access, future access, and international trade and investment. Forty-three empirical studies were found, three of which were from Thai databases. Patenting does increase price, although the size of effect differs according to the methodology and country. Although weakening patent rights could increase present access, evidence suggests that strengthening patenting may benefit future access; although this is based on complex assumptions and estimations. Moreover, while patent protection appears to have a positive impact on trade flow, the implication for foreign direct investment (FDI) is equivocal. Empirical studies in Thailand, and other similar countries, are rare, compromising the robustness and generalizability of conclusions. However, evidence does suggest that patenting presents a significant inter-temporal challenge in balancing aspects of current versus future access to technologies. This underlines the urgent need to prioritize health research resources to assess the wider implications of patent protection.

The Medicaid Rebate: Changes in Oncology Drug Prices After the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Bonakdar Tehrani, Ali; Carroll, Norman V

2017-08-01

Prescription drug spending is a significant component of Medicaid total expenditures. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) includes a provision that increases the Medicaid rebate for both brand-name and generic drugs. This study examines the extent to which oncology drug prices changed after the increase in the Medicaid rebate in 2010. A pre-post study design was used to evaluate the correlation between the Medicaid rebate increase and oncology drug prices after 2010 using 2006-2013 State Drug Utilization Data. The results show that the average annual price of top-selling cancer drugs in 2006, adjusted for inflation and secular changes in drug prices, have increased by US$154 and US$235 for branded and competitive brand drugs, respectively, following the 2010 ACA; however, generic oncology drug prices showed no significant changes. The findings from this study indicate that oncology drug prices have increased after the 2010 ACA, and suggest that pharmaceutical companies may have increased their drug prices to offset increases in Medicaid rebates.

B2, B7 or B10: Which palm-based blend mandate wise to be chosen in Malaysia?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Applanaidu, Shri-Dewi, E-mail: dewi@uum.edu.my; Ali, Anizah Md., E-mail: anizah@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my

The diminishing fossil energy resources, coupled with heightened interest in the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions and concerns about energy security have motivated Malaysia to produce palm-based biodiesel and it has been started to be exported since 2006. In line with this issue, the government in Malaysia launched the palm-based biodiesel blending mandate of five percent (B5) in the federal administration of Putrajaya on 1{sup st} June 2011. This was then followed by four states: Malacca on July 11, Negeri Sembilan on August 1, Kuala Lumpur on September 1 and Selangor on October 1 of the same year but itmore » is yet to be implemented nationwide. However what is the wise blend mandate to be chosen? Thus, this paper seeks to examine the possible impact of various blend mandates implementation (B2, B7 and B10) on the palm oil industry market variables (stock and price) since the main aim of biodiesel industry in Malaysia is to reduce domestic palm oil stock to below one million tones and provide a floor price to support Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices at RM2,000 per tonne. A structural econometric model consisting of nine structural equations and three identities was proposed in this study. The model has been estimated by two stage least squares (2SLS) method using annual data for the period 1976-2013. The study indicates that counterfactual simulation of a decrease from B5 to B2 predicts a decrease (11.2 per cent) in CPO domestic consumption for biodiesel usage, 731.02 per cent reduction in CPO stock and an increase of 27.41 percent in domestic price of CPO. However the increase in the blend mandate from B5 to B7 and B10 suggest that domestic consumption of CPO for biodiesel purpose increase 7.40 and 18.55 percent respectively. The interesting findings in this study suggest that no matter whether Malaysian government increase or decrease the blend mandate the increase in the price of CPO are the same with an increase of is 27.41 percent. Hence, this study suggests that the lower blend mandate is the most favourable on.+-e compared to increasing it in this short period due to high production cost of CPO prices. However, future study on economic feasibility of palm-based biodiesel has to be conducted to support this study.« less

B2, B7 or B10: Which palm-based blend mandate wise to be chosen in Malaysia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applanaidu, Shri-Dewi; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Ali, Anizah Md.

2015-12-01

The diminishing fossil energy resources, coupled with heightened interest in the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions and concerns about energy security have motivated Malaysia to produce palm-based biodiesel and it has been started to be exported since 2006. In line with this issue, the government in Malaysia launched the palm-based biodiesel blending mandate of five percent (B5) in the federal administration of Putrajaya on 1st June 2011. This was then followed by four states: Malacca on July 11, Negeri Sembilan on August 1, Kuala Lumpur on September 1 and Selangor on October 1 of the same year but it is yet to be implemented nationwide. However what is the wise blend mandate to be chosen? Thus, this paper seeks to examine the possible impact of various blend mandates implementation (B2, B7 and B10) on the palm oil industry market variables (stock and price) since the main aim of biodiesel industry in Malaysia is to reduce domestic palm oil stock to below one million tones and provide a floor price to support Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices at RM2,000 per tonne. A structural econometric model consisting of nine structural equations and three identities was proposed in this study. The model has been estimated by two stage least squares (2SLS) method using annual data for the period 1976-2013. The study indicates that counterfactual simulation of a decrease from B5 to B2 predicts a decrease (11.2 per cent) in CPO domestic consumption for biodiesel usage, 731.02 per cent reduction in CPO stock and an increase of 27.41 percent in domestic price of CPO. However the increase in the blend mandate from B5 to B7 and B10 suggest that domestic consumption of CPO for biodiesel purpose increase 7.40 and 18.55 percent respectively. The interesting findings in this study suggest that no matter whether Malaysian government increase or decrease the blend mandate the increase in the price of CPO are the same with an increase of is 27.41 percent. Hence, this study suggests that the lower blend mandate is the most favourable on.+-e compared to increasing it in this short period due to high production cost of CPO prices. However, future study on economic feasibility of palm-based biodiesel has to be conducted to support this study.

Changes in cigarette prices, affordability, and brand-tier consumption after a tobacco tax increase in Thailand: Evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys, 2009 and 2011

PubMed Central

Husain, Muhammad Jami; Kostova, Deliana; Mbulo, Lazarous; Benjakul, Sarunya; Kengganpanich, Mondha; Andes, Linda

2017-01-01

Despite the 2009 implementation of a tobacco tax increase in Thailand, smoking rates remained unchanged between 2009 and 2011. Prior evidence has linked cigarette tax increases to compensatory behaviours aimed at lowering the cost of smoking, such as switching to lower-priced cigarette brands. Using data from 2009 and 2011 Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in Thailand, we estimated unadjusted changes in cigarette prices paid, cigarette affordability, and consumption of cigarettes in three price categories classified as upper-, middle-, and lower-priced brand tiers (or price tertiles). We used ordered logit regression to analyse the correlates of price-tier choice and to estimate the change in price-tier consumption adjusted for demographic and region characteristics. Between 2009 and 2011, real cigarette prices increased, but the affordability of cigarettes remained unchanged overall. There was a significant reduction in the consumption of cigarette brands in the top price-tier overall, accompanied by increases in the consumption of brands in the bottom and middle price-tiers, depending on the region. Adjusted estimates from the logit models indicate that, on average, the proportion of smokers selecting brands from upper- and middle price-tiers decreased while consumption of lower price-tier brands increased during the study period. The estimated shifts in consumption from more expensive to less expensive cigarette brands and the overall lack of change in cigarette affordability in Thailand between 2009 and 2011 are both factors that may have contributed to the observed lack of change in smoking rates after the 2009 tax increase. PMID:28579499

78 FR 42113 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-15

... Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission'') has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget... settlement price for each cash-settled security futures product fairly reflect the opening price of the... Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and...

Can increases in the cigarette tax rate be linked to cigarette retail prices? Solving mysteries related to the cigarette pricing mechanism in China.

PubMed

Gao, Song; Zheng, Rong; Hu, Teh-wei

2012-11-01

To explain China's cigarette pricing mechanism and the role of the Chinese State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) on cigarette pricing and taxation. Published government tobacco tax documentation and statistics published by the Chinese STMA are used to analyse the interrelations among industry profits, taxes and retail price of cigarettes in China. The 2009 excise tax increase on cigarettes in China has not translated into higher retail prices because the Chinese STMA used its policy authority to ensure that retail cigarette prices did not change. The government tax increase is being collected at both the producer and wholesale levels. As a result, the 2009 excise tax increase in China has resulted in higher tax revenue for the government and lower profits for the tobacco industry, with no increase in the retail price of cigarettes for consumers. Numerous studies have found that taxation is one of the most effective policy instruments for tobacco control. However, these findings come from countries that have market economies where market forces determine prices and influence how cigarette taxes are passed to the consumers in retail prices. China's tobacco industry is not a market economy; therefore, non-market forces and the current Chinese tobacco monopoly system determine cigarette prices. The result is that tax increases do not necessarily get passed on to the retail price.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richards, Matt; Hamilton, Chris

This report provides supplemental information to the assessment of target markets provided in Appendix A of the 2012 Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Industry Alliance (NIA) business plan [NIA 2012] for deployment of High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) in the 2025 – 2050 time frame. This report largely reiterates the [NIA 2012] assessment for potential deployment of 400 to 800 HTGR modules (100 to 200 HTGR plants with 4 reactor modules) in the 600-MWt class in North America by 2050 for electricity generation, co-generation of steam and electricity, oil sands operations, hydrogen production, and synthetic fuels production (e.g., coal tomore » liquids). As the result of increased natural gas supply from hydraulic fracturing, the current and historically low prices of natural gas remain a significant barrier to deployment of HTGRs and other nuclear reactor concepts in the U.S. However, based on U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Agency (EIA) data, U.S. natural gas prices are expected to increase by the 2030 – 2040 timeframe when a significant number of HTGR modules could be deployed. An evaluation of more recent EIA 2013 data confirms the assumptions in [NIA 2012] of future natural gas prices in the range of approximately $7/MMBtu to $10/MMBtu during the 2030 – 2040 timeframe. Natural gas prices in this range will make HTGR energy prices competitive with natural gas, even in the absence of carbon-emissions penalties. Exhibit ES-1 presents the North American projections in each market segment including a characterization of the market penetration logic. Adjustments made to the 2012 data (and reflected in Exhibit ES-1) include normalization to the slightly larger 625MWt reactor module, segregation between steam cycle and more advanced (higher outlet temperature) modules, and characterization of U.S. synthetic fuel process applications as a separate market segment.« less

Cancer Drugs: An International Comparison of Postlicensing Price Inflation.

PubMed

Savage, Philip; Mahmoud, Sarah; Patel, Yogin; Kantarjian, Hagop

2017-06-01

The cost of cancer drugs forms a rising proportion of health care budgets worldwide. A number of studies have examined international comparisons of initial cost, but there is little work on postlicensing price increases. To examine this, we compared cancer drug prices at initial sale and subsequent price inflation in the United States and United Kingdom and also reviewed relevant price control mechanisms. The 10 top-selling cancer drugs were selected, and their prices at initial launch and in 2015 were compared. Standard nondiscounted prices were obtained from the relevant annual copies of the RED BOOK and the British National Formulary. At initial marketing, prices were on average 42% higher in the United States than in the United Kingdom. After licensing in the United States, all 10 drugs had price rises averaging an overall annual 8.8% (range, 1.4% to 24.1%) increase. In comparison, in the United Kingdom, six drugs had unchanged prices, two had decreased prices, and two had modest price increases. The overall annual increase in the United Kingdom was 0.24%. Cancer drug prices are rising substantially, both at their initial marketing price and, in the United States, at postlicensing prices. In the United Kingdom, the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme, an agreement between the government and the pharmaceutical industry, controls health care costs while allowing a return on investment and funds for research. The increasing costs of cancer drugs are approaching the limits of sustainability, and a similar government-industry agreement may allow stability for both health care provision and the pharmaceutical industry in the United States.

The Role of the National Training Center during Full Mobilization

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-07

resources are proposed by this study. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 217 National Training Center (NTC); Training; Mobilization; Combat 16. PRICE ... Price Code, Enter appropriate price Block 8. Performina Oraanization Report code (NTIS only). Number, Enter the unique alphanumeric report number(s...Regular Army and a transfer of their roles to the Reserve Component. The end of the Cold War makes future mobilization needs less likely and argues for

Grain production trends in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan: New opportunities in an increasingly unstable world?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lioubimtseva, Elena; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2012-06-01

Grain production in the countries of the former USSR sharply declined during the past two decades and has only recently started to recover. In the context of the current economic and food-price crisis, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan might be presented with a window of opportunity to reemerge on the global agricultural market, if they succeed in increasing their productivity. The future of their agriculture, however, is highly sensitive to a combination of internal and external factors, such as institutional changes, land-use changes, climate variability and change, and global economic trends. The future of this region's grain production is likely to have a significant impact on the global and regional food security over the next decades.

Tracking zebrafish larvae in group – Status and perspectives☆

PubMed Central

Martineau, Pierre R.; Mourrain, Philippe

2013-01-01

Video processing is increasingly becoming a standard procedure in zebrafish behavior investigations as it enables higher research throughput and new or better measures. This trend, fostered by the ever increasing performance-to-price ratio of the required recording and processing equipment, should be expected to continue in the foreseeable future, with video-processing based methods permeating more and more experiments and, as a result, expanding the very role of behavioral studies in zebrafish research. To assess whether the routine video tracking of zebrafish larvae directly in the Petri dish is a capability that can be expected in the near future, the key processing concepts are discussed and illustrated on published zebrafish studies when available or other animals when not. PMID:23707495

Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2017-01-01

Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.

Price and consumption of tobacco in Spain over the period 1965-2000.

PubMed

Fernández, E; Gallus, S; Schiaffino, A; López-Nicolás, A; La Vecchia, C; Barros, H; Townsend, J

2004-06-01

Changes in cigarette price have had an appreciable impact on smoking prevalence in several countries. We analysed the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes (effect of price of cigarettes on tobacco consumption) between 1965 and 2000 in Spain. For total consumption of cigarettes, a 1% increase in price is associated with a 0.19% decrease of consumption (price elasticity of -0.19; P<0.01). The real price of blond cigarettes was significantly and inversely associated with blond cigarette consumption: on average, smoking prevalence decreased 1.25% for a 1% increase in the real price of cigarettes (significant price elasticity of -1.25). For black cigarettes we found a lower but still high and significant elasticity of -0.61. There is an inverse relation between price and consumption of cigarettes in Spain, indicating that interventions at the economic level (such as real increases in prices) may have an important public health impact in tobacco control.

Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

2017-07-01

Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

State cigarette minimum price laws - United States, 2009.

PubMed

2010-04-09

Cigarette price increases reduce the demand for cigarettes and thereby reduce smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption, and youth initiation of smoking. Excise tax increases are the most effective government intervention to increase the price of cigarettes, but cigarette manufacturers use trade discounts, coupons, and other promotions to counteract the effects of these tax increases and appeal to price-sensitive smokers. State cigarette minimum price laws, initiated by states in the 1940s and 1950s to protect tobacco retailers from predatory business practices, typically require a minimum percentage markup to be added to the wholesale and/or retail price. If a statute prohibits trade discounts from the minimum price calculation, these laws have the potential to counteract discounting by cigarette manufacturers. To assess the status of cigarette minimum price laws in the United States, CDC surveyed state statutes and identified those states with minimum price laws in effect as of December 31, 2009. This report summarizes the results of that survey, which determined that 25 states had minimum price laws for cigarettes (median wholesale markup: 4.00%; median retail markup: 8.00%), and seven of those states also expressly prohibited the use of trade discounts in the minimum retail price calculation. Minimum price laws can help prevent trade discounting from eroding the positive effects of state excise tax increases and higher cigarette prices on public health.

Essays in Energy Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Erica Catherine

This dissertation combines research on three topics in applied energy economics. The first two papers investigate whether consumers are informed about and pay attention to energy costs in residential housing. The first paper explores this issue in the rental housing market, while the second paper focuses on housing purchases. The third paper, based on joint work with AJ Bostian and Harrison Fell, uses a laboratory experiment to test the effects of positive versus negative cost shocks on mulit-unit procurement auction performance. The first paper explores whether there are energy cost information asymmetries between landlords and tenants. If tenants are uninformed about energy costs, landlords cannot capitalize energy efficiency investments into higher rents, leading to under-investment. I exploit variation in energy costs in the form of relative heating fuel price changes in the northeastern United States where some apartment units heat with oil and some units heat with natural gas. I develop a search model to describe the matching of landlords and tenants, and derive predictions about the incidence of relative fuel price changes, tenant turnover, and efficiency investments under both symmetric and asymmetric information. My model predicts that, under symmetric full information, these outcomes will not differ depending on whether landlords or tenants pay for energy. In contrast, under asymmetric information, the demand of uninformed tenants for units that heat with oil rather than gas will not shift when oil prices rise relative to gas prices. In a search model, this leads to different market outcomes when landlords, rather than tenants, pay for energy. I find that the capitalization of energy prices into rents, turnover rates, and energy efficiency investments differ between the two payment regimes in ways that are consistent with asymmetric information. The second paper explores whether home buyers are myopic about future energy costs. I exploit variation in energy costs in the form of fuel price changes in Massachusetts where there is an even distribution of homes that heat with oil and homes that heat with natural gas. I find that relative fuel price shifts cause relative changes in housing transaction prices that are consistent with full capitalization of the present value of future energy cost differences under low discount rates. These findings are consistent with home buyers being attentive to energy costs at point of sale and are not consistent with myopia. The third paper uses a laboratory experiment to test the effects of positive versus negative costs shocks on multi-unit procurement auction performance. Output prices tend to respond more quickly to increases in input prices than to decreases in input prices. While standard economic theory would not predict this pattern, it is found in many market settings. We compare outcomes in uniform price and discriminatory (pay-as-bid) auctions for two different kinds of costs shocks. First we look at ''industry wide'' cost shocks where the cost of a common input changes uniformly for all bidders. We also look at idiosyncratic cost shocks, where bidders' individual costs are changing, but the expected Walrasian price remains fixed. We find evidence for a new explanation of asymmetric passthrough in multi-unit procurement auctions related to the bidding incentives in discriminatory auctions. Discriminatory auctions may be worse than uniform at ''tracking'' shifts in underlying costs, leading to price adjustment asymmetries and production inefficiencies.

Costs for integrating wind into the future ERCOT system with related costs for savings in CO2 emissions.

PubMed

Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Sluzas, Nora A

2011-04-01

Wind power can make an important contribution to the goal of reducing emissions of CO2. The major problem relates to the intrinsic variability of the source and the difficulty of reconciling the supply of electricity with demand particularly at high levels of wind penetration. This challenge is explored for the case of the ERCOT system in Texas. Demand for electricity in Texas is projected to increase by approximately 60% by 2030. Considering hourly load data reported for 2006, assuming that the pattern of demand in 2030 should be similar to 2006, and adopting as a business as usual (BAU) reference an assumption that the anticipated additional electricity should be supplied by a combination of coal and gas with prices, discounted to 2007 dollars of $2 and $6 per MMBTU respectively, we conclude that the bus-bar price for electricity would increase by about 1.1 ¢/kWh at a wind penetration level of 30%, by about 3.4 ¢/kWh at a penetration level of 80%. Corresponding costs for reductions in CO2 range from $20/ton to $60/ton. A number of possibilities are discussed that could contribute to a reduction in these costs including the impact of an expanded future fleet of electrically driven vehicles.

Practice transitions--past, present, and future.

PubMed

Prokes, Ronald I

2014-01-01

Until the 1960s, the value of a practice upon the retirement of the dentist was considered to be nil. In the next several decades, the value of a practice as a going business concern was recognized and formulas based on productivity were used to establish the sales price of "walkaway" practice transitions. Increasingly creative means, such as pre-sale, deferred pre-sale, shareholder process, incremental practice sale, and practice mergers have been created to make practice transitions more flexible, thereby maximizing the financial value of transitions. Dentists at the beginning of their careers will have an increasing range of opportunities in the future, with various combinations of financial security, freedom from manage- ment concerns, control over the practice, and accumulation of equity. Those in the 45- to 55-year age range should be planning in detail for their transition. Those older than 55 should begin exercising their plans since the future will involve much longer transitions.

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan H.; Mills, Andrew; Seel, Joachim

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is amore » complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.« less

Will the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation produce an incentive to continue carbon emissions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2017-05-01

Integrated assessment models are commonly used to generate optimal carbon prices based on an objective function that maximizes social welfare. Such models typically project an initially low carbon price that increases with time. This framework does not reflect the incentives of decision makers who are responsible for generating tax revenue. If a rising carbon price is to result in near-zero emissions, it must ultimately result in near-zero carbon tax revenue. That means that at some point, policy makers will be asked to increase the tax rate on carbon emissions to such an extent that carbon tax revenue will fall. Therefore, there is a risk that the use of a carbon tax to generate revenue could eventually create a perverse incentive to continue carbon emissions in order to provide a continued stream of carbon tax revenue. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model, we provide evidence that this risk is not a concern for the immediate future but that a revenue-generating carbon tax could create this perverse incentive as time goes on. This incentive becomes perverse at about year 2085 under the default configuration of DICE, but the timing depends on a range of factors including the cost of climate damages and the cost of decarbonizing the global energy system. While our study is based on a schematic model, it highlights the importance of considering a broader spectrum of incentives in studies using more comprehensive integrated assessment models. Our study demonstrates that the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation could potentially motivate implementation of such a tax today, but this source of revenue generation risks motivating continued carbon emissions far into the future.

Future European health care: cost containment, health care reform and scientific progress in drug research.

PubMed

Emilien, G

1997-01-01

The cost of the development of a new pharmaceutical product from its conception and synthesis through to the regulatory approval process has more than quadrupled in the last 20 years. Both clinical and total development times have increased substantially. To amortize the costs incurred, the pharmaceutical industry has taken an international dimension. The incentives for pharmaceutical firms to discover and develop new drugs depend on the length of the development and regulatory review process plus the potential market size. Recent regulatory, economic and political changes may have significant implications for the future of new drug developments in Europe. The European Union industrial policy felt that there is a need for convergence in the area of pricing. It is recommended that the policy should aim to contain growth in pharmaceutical expenses by means specific to reimbursement rather than direct price controls. By encouraging doctors to prescribe and customers to use generics, competition is enhanced to bring down drug prices. More emphasis is being laid by government in educating customers to cost-awareness and cost-benefit ratios with regard to pharmaceuticals. Concerning clinical trials, European harmonization has been achieved by significant developments: the rights and integrity of the trial subjects are protected; the credibility of the data is established; and the ethical, scientific and technical quality of the trials has improved. Future European health care forecasts a whole change in the pharmaceutical business. Important issues in cost and outcome measurement should be carefully planned and considered in drug development. Due to important mergers and acquisitions, the pharmaceutical sector will consist mainly of important multinational corporations. In this way, valuable new products may be brought to the market.

77 FR 64148 - Postal Rate and Classification Changes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-18

... of free tracking. Priority Mail Flat Rate Box prices change to the following: Small ($5.80), Medium.... Several international ancillary services and paper money orders receive price increases. Certificates of.... International Return Receipt also receives price increases, and International Postal Money Order prices increase...

Understanding Financial Innovation: An Introduction to Derivative Financial Products.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, J. N.

1992-01-01

Explains the use of forwards, futures, swaps, and options in international currency trading. Argues that pricing options are based on the same basic principles as pricing other financial instruments. Concludes that, although financial markets have developed several new products, hedging and speculation involve similar processes. (CFR)

75 FR 55370 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-10

... Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission'') has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget a... Affairs, Office of Management and Budget, Room 10102, New Executive Office Building, Washington, DC 20503... settlement price for each cash-settled security futures product fairly reflect the opening price of the...

Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandrini, S.; Davò, F.; Sperati, S.; Benini, M.; Delle Monache, L.

2014-05-01

Deterministic forecasts of wind production for the next 72 h at a single wind farm or at the regional level are among the main end-users requirement. However, for an optimal management of wind power production and distribution it is important to provide, together with a deterministic prediction, a probabilistic one. A deterministic forecast consists of a single value for each time in the future for the variable to be predicted, while probabilistic forecasting informs on probabilities for potential future events. This means providing information about uncertainty (i.e. a forecast of the PDF of power) in addition to the commonly provided single-valued power prediction. A significant probabilistic application is related to the trading of energy in day-ahead electricity markets. It has been shown that, when trading future wind energy production, using probabilistic wind power predictions can lead to higher benefits than those obtained by using deterministic forecasts alone. In fact, by using probabilistic forecasting it is possible to solve economic model equations trying to optimize the revenue for the producer depending, for example, on the specific penalties for forecast errors valid in that market. In this work we have applied a probabilistic wind power forecast systems based on the "analog ensemble" method for bidding wind energy during the day-ahead market in the case of a wind farm located in Italy. The actual hourly income for the plant is computed considering the actual selling energy prices and penalties proportional to the unbalancing, defined as the difference between the day-ahead offered energy and the actual production. The economic benefit of using a probabilistic approach for the day-ahead energy bidding are evaluated, resulting in an increase of 23% of the annual income for a wind farm owner in the case of knowing "a priori" the future energy prices. The uncertainty on price forecasting partly reduces the economic benefit gained by using a probabilistic energy forecast system.

The effect of information on household water and energy use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hans, Liesel

Water and Energy Utilities are faced with growing demand at a time when supply expansion is increasingly costly, inconsistent and taxing on the environment. Given that supply expansion is limited, to meet future needs utilities need demand-side management policies to result in more reliable and consistent consumer responsiveness. Currently, most households do not have access to the level or type of information needed to respond to price signals in a reliable and effective way. Advanced information technology solutions exist and are being increasingly adopted, but we need to know more about how the informational setting affects decision-making, consumption levels and price responsiveness. This research analyzes the effect of information on household water and energy consumption, which is a decision-making environment characterized by uncertainty and imperfect information. This study also analyzes additional complexities stemming from infrequent billing, non-linear pricing structures, and combined utility bills, each of which may dampen price signals. I first develop a theoretical model of decision-making under uncertainty. I use this model to illustrate the effect of more frequent information, which eliminates uncertainty about past decisions, on remaining decisions within the billing period. The model emphasizes the role of risk preferences and the realization of the uncertain quantity. On average, risk averse consumers will increase consumption when uncertainty is reduced; risk seeking consumers will do the opposite. Introduction of a non-linear rate structure induces behavior that makes individuals appear as if they are risk averse or risk seeking, despite their actual risk preferences. This model highlights the importance of modeling multiple decisions within a billing period and accounting for a spectrum of risk preferences. In Chapter 3, I create a computerized laboratory experiment designed to generate data used to test some of the hypotheses formulated in the theoretical model presented in Chapter 2. Results from the experiment show that, on average, individuals consume more when provided with more frequent information that resolves uncertainty about past decisions made within a single billing period. This result is driven by the fact that the majority of participants are risk averse or risk neutral. Risk seeking participants instead reduce use when facing less uncertainty. Also as predicted by the theoretical model in Chapter 2, combining behavior driven by risk preferences with the presence of an increasing block rate structure results in behavior that looks like consumers are targeting the block boundary. This experiment shows that providing more information may not lead to reduced use without other incentives, goal-setting, or mechanisms designed to help individuals process the information. In Chapter 4, I empirically analyze a ten-year household-level panel data set of monthly utility bills. A single utility provides electricity, natural gas and water services to its customers and therefore bills through a single utility bill. I first show that price responsiveness varies by the number and combination of services subscribed to by a given household. Second, through a price salience model I show that households are more responsive to the price of water when the water portion of the total bill is greater. When multiple services are contained on a single bill, the salience of any individual price signal is dampened. This study confirms that households are inelastic though not unresponsive to water prices. In order to make pricing policies more effective, utilities need to acknowledge that households may be responding to total utility costs (i.e., may respond to a high utility bill by reducing electricity use despite the true driver of the high bill) and will need to find ways to make quantity and price information more salient to their customers. Chapter 5 concludes this dissertation by summarizing the contributions of the research and possible extensions for future work. By improving the informational environment surrounding household water and energy use, there will be great capacity for households to use water and energy more efficiently and ultimately make choices that reduce residential water/energy consumption and yield benefits for customers, utilities, and the environment.

Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1983

Treesearch

Dennis M. May

1985-01-01

The average price per cord for Midsouth roundwood pulpwood increased less than 1 percent to $48.38 in 1983. The average price for a green ton of chipped mill residues fell 9.3 percent to $23.34. Sawdust prices averaged $13.04 per green ton, a 42.2 percent increase over 1982 prices. Prices for rail delivery of wood fiber continue to be slightly lower than truck...

Slowing Menthol's Progress: Differential Impact of a Tobacco Tax Increase on Cigarette Sales.

PubMed

Amato, Michael S; D'Silva, Joanne; Boyle, Raymond G

2016-05-01

The proportion of smokers who use menthol cigarettes has increased nationally since 2004, while use of non-menthol cigarettes is declining, suggesting that menthol may be undermining the effectiveness of population level tobacco control efforts. In 2013 Minnesota passed a $1.75 cigarette tax increase. We investigated whether sales of menthol and non-menthol cigarettes were differentially affected by the price increase. Cigarette sales data from convenience stores in the Minneapolis, Minnesota, metro area from January 2012, through May 2015, were obtained. Proportion of sales accounted for by menthol cigarettes was analyzed with segmented regression. Before the price increase, menthol cigarettes gained 2.21% (1.17, 3.12) of market share annually. Following the price increase, the trend slowed to 0.26% (-0.78, 1.56) annually. The slope before the price increase was significantly positive; the slope following the price increase did not significantly differ from zero. Sales of menthol cigarettes declined less rapidly than non-menthol cigarettes before the price increase. Sales of menthol and non-menthol cigarettes declined at more comparable rates after the price increase. Increasing the price of tobacco may help ensure declines in consumption are more evenly distributed across menthol and non-menthol cigarettes. Using sales data, we found that a trend of increasing market share for menthol cigarettes was significantly reduced by a $1.75 cigarette price increase. These results suggest that cigarette price increases, a core tobacco control policy, may have a greater effect on menthol smokers than non-menthol smokers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Cigarette price minimization strategies in the United States: price reductions and responsiveness to excise taxes.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Licht, Andrea S; Kruger, Judy M

2013-11-01

Because cigarette price minimization strategies can provide substantial price reductions for individuals continuing their usual smoking behaviors following federal and state cigarette excise tax increases, we examined independent price reductions compensating for overlapping strategies. The possible availability of larger independent price reduction opportunities in states with higher cigarette excise taxes is explored. Regression analysis used the 2006-2007 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (N = 26,826) to explore national and state-level independent price reductions that smokers obtained from purchasing cigarettes (a) by the carton, (b) in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price than in the state of residence, and (c) in "some other way," including online or in another country. Price reductions from these strategies are estimated jointly to compensate for known overlapping strategies. Each strategy reduced the price of cigarettes by 64-94 cents per pack. These price reductions are 9%-22% lower than conventionally estimated results not compensating for overlapping strategies. Price reductions vary substantially by state. Following cigarette excise tax increases, the price reduction available from purchasing cigarettes by cartons increased. Additionally, the price reduction from purchasing cigarettes in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price is positively associated with state cigarette excise tax rates and border state cigarette excise tax rate differentials. Findings from this large, nationally representative study of cigarette smokers suggest that price reductions are larger in states with higher cigarette excise taxes, and increase as cigarette excise taxes rise.

The effect of excise tax increases on cigarette prices in South Africa

PubMed Central

Linegar, Daniel J; van Walbeek, Corne

2018-01-01

Introduction The effectiveness of excise tax increases as a tool for reducing tobacco consumption depends largely on how the tax increases impact the retail price. We estimate this relationship in South Africa for 2001–2015. Data Statistics South Africa provided disaggregated cigarette price data, used in the calculation of the Consumers’ Price Index. Data on the excise tax per cigarette were obtained from Budget Reviews prepared by the National Treasury of South Africa. Methods Regression equations were estimated for each month. The month-on-month change in cigarette prices in February through April was regressed against March’s excise tax change to estimate the pass-through coefficient. For the other 9 months, the month-on-month change in cigarette price was regressed against monthly dummy variables to determine the size of the non-tax-related price increase in each of these months. The analysis was performed in both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Findings Expressed in real terms, the excise tax was undershifted. A R1.00 (one rand) increase in the excise tax is associated with an increase in the retail price of cigarettes of R0.90 in the pre-2010 period, and R0.49 in the post-2010 period. In the pre-2010 period, the tobacco industry increased the retail price of cigarettes in July/August, independent of the excise tax increase. The discretionary July/August price increases largely disappeared after 2010, primarily because the market became more competitive. Conclusion The degree of excise tax pass-through, and the magnitude of discretionary increases in cigarette prices, is significantly determined by the competitive environment in the cigarette market. PMID:28341767

The influence of estimated retail tobacco sale price increase on smokers' smoking habit in Jiangxi province, China: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Wang, Ruiping; Zhu, Liping; Yan, Wei; Zeng, Guang; Michael, Engelgau

2015-01-01

China is the biggest tobacco producer and consumer in the world. Raising cigarette taxes and increasing tobacco retail prices have been prove as effective strategies to reduce tobacco consumption and the prevalence of smoking in western countries. But in China, it is uncertain how an increase of cigarette retail price will influence the tobacco consumption. From April to July, 2012, we selected 4025 residents over 15 years by a three stage random sampling in four cities, Jiangxi Province, China. We conducted interviews of their current smoking habits and how they would change their smoking behavior if tobacco retail prices increase. Overall, the prevalence of smoking is 27 % (47 % for male, 3.1 % for female). 15 % of smokers have tried to quit smoking in the past but all relapsed (168/1088), and over 50 % of current smokers do not want to quit, The average cigarette price per pack is 1.1 USD (range = 0.25-5.0). If retail cigarette prices increases by 50 %, 45 % of smokers say they will smoke fewer cigarettes, 20 % will change to cheaper brands and 5 % will attempt to quit smoking. Smokers who have intention to quit smoking are more sensitive to retail cigarette price increase. With retail cigarette price increases, more smokers will attempt to quit smoking. Chinese smokers will change their smoking habits if tobacco retail prices increase. Consequently the Chinese government should enact tobacco laws which increase the retail cigarette price. The implementation of new tobacco laws could result in lowering the prevalence of smoking. Meanwhile, price increase measures need to apply to all cigarette brands to avoid smokers switching cigarettes to cheaper brands.

The effect of excise tax increases on cigarette prices in South Africa.

PubMed

Linegar, Daniel J; van Walbeek, Corne

2018-01-01

The effectiveness of excise tax increases as a tool for reducing tobacco consumption depends largely on how the tax increases impact the retail price. We estimate this relationship in South Africa for 2001-2015. Statistics South Africa provided disaggregated cigarette price data, used in the calculation of the Consumers' Price Index. Data on the excise tax per cigarette were obtained from Budget Reviews prepared by the National Treasury of South Africa. Regression equations were estimated for each month. The month-on-month change in cigarette prices in February through April was regressed against March's excise tax change to estimate the pass-through coefficient. For the other 9 months, the month-on-month change in cigarette price was regressed against monthly dummy variables to determine the size of the non-tax-related price increase in each of these months. The analysis was performed in both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Expressed in real terms, the excise tax was undershifted. A R1.00 (one rand) increase in the excise tax is associated with an increase in the retail price of cigarettes of R0.90 in the pre-2010 period, and R0.49 in the post-2010 period. In the pre-2010 period, the tobacco industry increased the retail price of cigarettes in July/August, independent of the excise tax increase. The discretionary July/August price increases largely disappeared after 2010, primarily because the market became more competitive. The degree of excise tax pass-through, and the magnitude of discretionary increases in cigarette prices, is significantly determined by the competitive environment in the cigarette market. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Identifying Financially Sustainable Pricing Interventions to Promote Healthier Beverage Purchases in Small Neighborhood Stores

PubMed Central

Kumanyika, Shiriki; Gittelsohn, Joel; Adam, Atif; Wong, Michelle S.; Mui, Yeeli; Lee, Bruce Y.

2018-01-01

Introduction Residents of low-income communities often purchase sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at small, neighborhood “corner” stores. Lowering water prices and increasing SSB prices are potentially complementary public health strategies to promote more healthful beverage purchasing patterns in these stores. Sustainability, however, depends on financial feasibility. Because in-store pricing experiments are complex and require retailers to take business risks, we used a simulation approach to identify profitable pricing combinations for corner stores. Methods The analytic approach was based on inventory models, which are suitable for modeling business operations. We used discrete-event simulation to build inventory models that use data representing beverage inventory, wholesale costs, changes in retail prices, and consumer demand for 2 corner stores in Baltimore, Maryland. Model outputs yielded ranges for water and SSB prices that increased water demand without loss of profit from combined water and SSB sales. Results A 20% SSB price increase allowed lowering water prices by up to 20% while maintaining profit and increased water demand by 9% and 14%, for stores selling SSBs in 12-oz cans and 16- to 20-oz bottles, respectively. Without changing water prices, profits could increase by 4% and 6%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that stores with a higher volume of SSB sales could reduce water prices the most without loss of profit. Conclusion Various combinations of SSB and water prices could encourage water consumption while maintaining or increasing store owners’ profits. This model is a first step in designing and implementing profitable pricing strategies in collaboration with store owners. PMID:29369758

Identifying Financially Sustainable Pricing Interventions to Promote Healthier Beverage Purchases in Small Neighborhood Stores.

PubMed

Nau, Claudia; Kumanyika, Shiriki; Gittelsohn, Joel; Adam, Atif; Wong, Michelle S; Mui, Yeeli; Lee, Bruce Y

2018-01-25

Residents of low-income communities often purchase sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at small, neighborhood "corner" stores. Lowering water prices and increasing SSB prices are potentially complementary public health strategies to promote more healthful beverage purchasing patterns in these stores. Sustainability, however, depends on financial feasibility. Because in-store pricing experiments are complex and require retailers to take business risks, we used a simulation approach to identify profitable pricing combinations for corner stores. The analytic approach was based on inventory models, which are suitable for modeling business operations. We used discrete-event simulation to build inventory models that use data representing beverage inventory, wholesale costs, changes in retail prices, and consumer demand for 2 corner stores in Baltimore, Maryland. Model outputs yielded ranges for water and SSB prices that increased water demand without loss of profit from combined water and SSB sales. A 20% SSB price increase allowed lowering water prices by up to 20% while maintaining profit and increased water demand by 9% and 14%, for stores selling SSBs in 12-oz cans and 16- to 20-oz bottles, respectively. Without changing water prices, profits could increase by 4% and 6%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that stores with a higher volume of SSB sales could reduce water prices the most without loss of profit. Various combinations of SSB and water prices could encourage water consumption while maintaining or increasing store owners' profits. This model is a first step in designing and implementing profitable pricing strategies in collaboration with store owners.

Retailer participation in cigarette company incentive programs is related to increased levels of cigarette advertising and cheaper cigarette prices in stores.

PubMed

Feighery, Ellen C; Ribisl, Kurt M; Schleicher, Nina C; Clark, Pamela I

2004-06-01

The retail outlet is the cigarette companies' major marketing channel to reach present and future customers. Of the $11.2 billion spent by them to market their products in 2001, approximately 85% was spent on retailer and consumer incentives to stimulate sales. This study examines the extent of retailer participation in these incentive programs, and the relationship between participation and the amount and placement of cigarette marketing materials and products, and prices in stores. Observational assessments of cigarette marketing materials, products, and prices were conducted in 468 stores in 15 U.S. states. Telephone interviews were conducted with store owners or managers of these stores to determine the details of their participation in incentive programs. Cigarette companies engaged 65% of retailers in an incentive program. Nearly 80% of participating retailers reported cigarette company control over placement of marketing materials in their stores. Stores that reported receiving over $3,000 from incentive programs in the past 3 months averaged 19.5 cigarette marketing materials, and stores receiving no money averaged only 8.2 marketing materials. In multivariate analyses, participation in incentive programs offered by Philip Morris and R.J. Reynolds was positively related to the number of cigarette marketing materials for each of these companies' brands in stores and the placement of their cigarettes on the top shelf. The price of Newports was significantly lower in stores that received incentives; no price difference was found for Marlboro. Stores that participate in cigarette company incentive programs feature more prominent placement of cigarettes and advertising, and may have cheaper cigarette prices.

Can Increases in the Cigarette Tax Rate be Linked to Cigarette Retail Prices? Solving mysteries related to the cigarette pricing mechanism in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Song; Zheng, Rong; Hu, Teh-wei

2013-01-01

Objective To explain China’s cigarette pricing mechanism and the role of the Chinese State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) on cigarette pricing and taxation. Methods Published government tobacco tax documentation and statistics published by the Chinese State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) are used to analyze the interrelations among industry profits, taxes, and retail price of cigarettes in China. Results The 2009 excise tax increase on cigarettes in China has not translated into higher retail prices because the Chinese STMA used its policy authority to ensure that retail cigarette prices did not change. The government tax increase is being collected at both the producer and wholesale levels. As a result, the 2009 excise tax increase in China has resulted in higher tax revenue for the government and lower profits for the tobacco industry, with no increase in the retail price of cigarettes for consumers. Conclusions Numerous studies have found that taxation is one of the most effective policy instruments for tobacco control. However, these findings come from countries that have market economies where market forces determine prices and influence how cigarette taxes are passed to the consumers in retail prices. China’s tobacco industry is not a market economy; therefore, nonmarket forces and the current Chinese tobacco monopoly system determine cigarette prices. The result is that tax increases do not necessarily get passed on to the retail price. PMID:23076787

Reducing tobacco use and access through strengthened minimum price laws.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Ian; Pearson, Anne; Laird-Metke, Elisa; Ribisl, Kurt

2014-10-01

Higher prices reduce consumption and initiation of tobacco products. A minimum price law that establishes a high statutory minimum price and prohibits the industry's discounting tactics for tobacco products is a promising pricing strategy as an alternative to excise tax increases. Although some states have adopted minimum price laws on the basis of statutorily defined price "markups" over the invoice price, existing state laws have been largely ineffective at increasing the retail price. We analyzed 3 new variations of minimum price laws that hold great potential for raising tobacco prices and reducing consumption: (1) a flat rate minimum price law similar to a recent enactment in New York City, (2) an enhanced markup law, and (3) a law that incorporates both elements.

Effect of deregulation on the prices of nicotine replacement therapy products in Finland.

PubMed

Aalto-Setälä, Ville; Alaranta, Antti

2008-05-01

The sales of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products were deregulated in Finland in February 2006. Previously all medications were sold only in pharmacies, and retail mark-ups and prices were fixed; following deregulation pricing of NRT products has been free. Further more, grocery shops, petrol stations and kiosks are now licensed to sell NRT products. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of deregulation on prices of NRT products. We utilized price data on NRT products (n=2106) from pharmacies, grocery shops, kiosks and petrol stations. Market prices are compared with former regulated prices, as are the prices at different types of outlets. We examined the relationship between competition and prices by regression analysis. The average price of NRT products decreased 15% after deregulation. About half of the price decrease was due to exemption of NRT products from the pharmacy fee as part of deregulation, and the other half to increased competition. The least expensive NRT products are obtainable in hypermarkets; however, pharmacies have the largest variety. Deregulation of NRT products in Finland was successful in that the prices of these products have decreased and their availability increased. Based on international experience, however, it is not clear whether these decreased prices and increased availabilities have increased smoking cessation.

Research on Agricultural Product Options Pricing Based on Lévy Copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Hong

2017-11-01

China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. With the advancement of modern agriculture and the expansion of agricultural scale, the demand for farmers to avoid market risks is increasingly urgent. Option trading has the effect of attracting farmers’ intervention, promoting order agriculture development, perfecting agricultural support policy and promoting the development of agricultural futures market. Relative to the futures, the option transaction because the margin is low, reducing the trader’s entry threshold, you can make more small and medium investors to participate. This is not only active in the futures market, but also for many small and medium investors to provide effective financial management tools.

Association of Cigarette Price Differentials With Infant Mortality in 23 European Union Countries.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Laverty, Anthony A; Hone, Thomas; Been, Jasper V; Millett, Christopher

2017-11-01

Raising the price of cigarettes by increasing taxation has been associated with improved perinatal and child health outcomes. Transnational tobacco companies have sought to undermine tobacco tax policy by adopting pricing strategies that maintain the availability of budget cigarettes. To assess associations between median cigarette prices, cigarette price differentials, and infant mortality across the European Union. A longitudinal, ecological study was conducted from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2014, of infant populations in 23 countries (comprising 276 subnational regions) within the European Union. Median cigarette prices and the differential between these and minimum cigarette prices were obtained from Euromonitor International. Pricing differentials were calculated as the proportions (%) obtained by dividing the difference between median and minimum cigarette price by median price. Prices were adjusted for inflation. Annual infant mortality rates. Associations were assessed using linear fixed-effect panel regression models adjusted for smoke-free policies, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, education, maternal age, and underlining temporal trends. Among the 53 704 641 live births during the study period, an increase of €1 (US $1.18) per pack in the median cigarette price was associated with a decline of 0.23 deaths per 1000 live births in the same year (95% CI, -0.37 to -0.09) and a decline of 0.16 deaths per 1000 live births the following year (95% CI, -0.30 to -0.03). An increase of 10% in the price differential between median-priced and minimum-priced cigarettes was associated with an increase of 0.07 deaths per 1000 live births (95% CI, 0.01-0.13) the following year. Cigarette price increases across 23 European countries between 2004 and 2014 were associated with 9208 (95% CI, 8601-9814) fewer infant deaths; 3195 (95% CI, 3017-3372) infant deaths could have been avoided had there been no cost differential between the median-priced and minimum-priced cigarettes during this period. Higher cigarette prices were associated with reduced infant mortality, while increased cigarette price differentials were associated with higher infant mortality in the European Union. Combined with other evidence, this research suggests that legislators should implement tobacco tax and price control measures that eliminate budget cigarettes.

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Limiting the financial risks of electricity generation capital investments under carbon constraints: Applications and opportunities for public policies and private investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newcomer, Adam

Increasing demand for electricity and an aging fleet of generators are the principal drivers behind an increasing need for a large amount of capital investments in the US electric power sector in the near term. The decisions (or lack thereof) by firms, regulators and policy makers in response to this challenge have long lasting consequences, incur large economic and environmental risks, and must be made despite large uncertainties about the future operating and business environment. Capital investment decisions are complex: rates of return are not guaranteed; significant uncertainties about future environmental legislation and regulations exist at both the state and national levels---particularly about carbon dioxide emissions; there is an increasing number of shareholder mandates requiring public utilities to reduce their exposure to potentially large losses from stricter environmental regulations; and there are significant concerns about electricity and fuel price levels, supplies, and security. Large scale, low carbon electricity generation facilities using coal, such as integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) facilities coupled with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies, have been technically proven but are unprofitable in the current regulatory and business environment where there is no explicit or implicit price on carbon dioxide emissions. The paper examines two separate scenarios that are actively discussed by policy and decision makers at corporate, state and national levels: a future US electricity system where coal plays a role; and one where the role of coal is limited or nonexistent. The thesis intends to provide guidance for firms and policy makers and outline applications and opportunities for public policies and for private investment decisions to limit financial risks of electricity generation capital investments under carbon constraints.

Effects of the relative fee structure on the use of surgical operations.

PubMed

Escarce, J J

1993-10-01

The goal is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework for investigating how the demand for an operation may be affected by the fee for the operation (the own-price) and by fees for other services provided by surgeons in the same specialty (the cross-price). The theory suggests an empirical test of whether surgeons create demand for surgery. The study examines the use of 11 frequently performed surgical operations by elderly Medicare enrollees in a cross-section of 316 U.S. metropolitan areas. Medicare physician claims and enrollment files for 1986 are the principal sources of data. Using econometric methods, a structural demand equation modified to include the own-price and the cross-price is estimated for each study operation. The theory suggests that the utilization response to changes in fees may differ among operations depending on whether demand creation occurs and on the interplay of distinct own-price and cross-price effects. However, the results of the empirical analyses are inconclusive regarding the most appropriate economic model of surgical utilization. Both neoclassical behavior and demand creation are observed, but technical limitations of the analyses, including the cross-sectional design of the study, preclude definitive inferences. Despite the lack of definitive empirical results, the study has several implications for future research regarding the effect of changes in fees on surgical utilization. In particular, future studies should consider the roles of distinct own-price and cross-price effects, examine the importance of the supply-demand balance in physician services markets, and assess whether typologies of operations that are based on the strictness of their clinical indications predict the appropriate economic model of utilization.

Effects of the relative fee structure on the use of surgical operations.

PubMed Central

Escarce, J J

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE. The goal is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework for investigating how the demand for an operation may be affected by the fee for the operation (the own-price) and by fees for other services provided by surgeons in the same specialty (the cross-price). The theory suggests an empirical test of whether surgeons create demand for surgery. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING. The study examines the use of 11 frequently performed surgical operations by elderly Medicare enrollees in a cross-section of 316 U.S. metropolitan areas. Medicare physician claims and enrollment files for 1986 are the principal sources of data. STUDY DESIGN. Using econometric methods, a structural demand equation modified to include the own-price and the cross-price is estimated for each study operation. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The theory suggests that the utilization response to changes in fees may differ among operations depending on whether demand creation occurs and on the interplay of distinct own-price and cross-price effects. However, the results of the empirical analyses are inconclusive regarding the most appropriate economic model of surgical utilization. Both neoclassical behavior and demand creation are observed, but technical limitations of the analyses, including the cross-sectional design of the study, preclude definitive inferences. CONCLUSIONS. Despite the lack of definitive empirical results, the study has several implications for future research regarding the effect of changes in fees on surgical utilization. In particular, future studies should consider the roles of distinct own-price and cross-price effects, examine the importance of the supply-demand balance in physician services markets, and assess whether typologies of operations that are based on the strictness of their clinical indications predict the appropriate economic model of utilization. PMID:8407339

17 CFR 37.403 - Additional requirements for cash-settled swaps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... requirements for cash-settled swaps. (a) For cash-settled swaps, the swap execution facility shall demonstrate that it monitors the pricing of the reference price used to determine cash flows or settlement; (b) For... cash-settled swaps. 37.403 Section 37.403 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING...

Can and should value-based pricing be applied to molecular diagnostics?

PubMed

Garau, Martina; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis; Housman, Laura; Ossa, Diego

2013-01-01

Current pricing and reimbursement systems for diagnostics are not efficient. Prices for diagnostics are often driven by administrative practices and expected production cost. The purpose of the paper is to discuss how a value-based pricing framework being used to ensure efficient use and price of medicines could also be applied to diagnostics. Diagnostics not only facilitates health gain and cost savings, but also information to guide patients' decisions on interventions and their future 'behaviors'. For value assessment processes we recommend a two-part approach. Companion diagnostics introduced at the launch of the drug should be assessed through new drug assessment processes considering a broad range of value elements and a balanced analysis of diagnostic impacts. A separate diagnostic-dedicated committee using value-based pricing principles should review other diagnostics lying outside the companion diagnostics-and-drug 'at-launch' situation.

Hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in two eastern hardwood markets: The real story

Treesearch

Neal P. Kingsley; Paul S. DeBald; Paul S. DeBald

1987-01-01

Current and real prices of hardwood lumber and stumpage prices are discussed. Results show that inflation wiped out most of the apparent price increases in two major hardwood lumber markets. Stumpage prices also failed to increase in real terms for most species in Ohio. Current and real prices trends for eight major eastern species are shown for the period 1964 through...

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are developed from a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for a large dataset. Unconditional and conditional forecasts are compared for U.S. industrial production, real personal income, and estimated factors. Results suggest that economic growth will be slower under the Clean Power Plan than it would otherwise; however, CO2 emissions reductions and economic growth can be achieved simultaneously.

Oil shortages, climate change and collective action.

PubMed

Newbery, David

2011-05-13

Concerns over future oil scarcity might not be so worrying but for the high carbon content of substitutes, and the limited capacity of the atmosphere to absorb additional CO(2) from burning fuel. The paper argues that the tools of economics are helpful in understanding some of the key issues in pricing fossil fuels, the extent to which pricing can be left to markets, the need for, and design of, international agreements on corrective carbon pricing, and the potential Prisoners' Dilemma in reaching such agreements, partly mitigated in the case of oil by current taxes and the probable incidence of carbon taxes on the oil price. The 'Green Paradox', in which carbon pricing exacerbates climate change, is theoretically possible, but empirically unlikely. © 2011 Royal Society

The demand for physician services. Evidence from a natural experiment.

PubMed

Cockx, Bart; Brasseur, Carine

2003-11-01

This study exploits a natural experiment in Belgium to estimate the effect of copayment increases on the demand for physician services. It shows how a differences-in-differences (DD) estimator of the price effects can be decomposed into effects induced by the common average proportional price increase (income effects) and by the change in relative prices (substitution effects). The price elasticity of a uniform proportional price increase is relatively small (-0.13 for men and -0.03 for women). Substitution effects are large, especially for women, but imprecisely estimated. Despite the substantial price increases, the efficiency gain of the reform, if any, is modest.

[Medical problems associated with the national reference pricing system in Hungary].

PubMed

Kerpel-Fronius, Sándor

2004-04-25

The author analyses the medical problems associated with the proposed reference pricing system prepared for the 2004 pharmaceutical price and reimbursement negotiations by the Hungarian National Health Insurance Fund (HNIF). In case of drugs containing identical active ingredients the author does not consider it acceptable that from the criteria of reference grouping bioequivalence was omitted, since bioequivalence is the basic clinical pharmacologic principle underlying the safe utilization of generic drugs. The proposal introduces in Hungary the therapeutic reference pricing for drugs belonging to the same ATC 5 level group, having different chemical structures but identical mechanisms of action. The products are listed according to their defined daily dose (DDD) and the arithmetic mean of the cheapest products giving together 50% market share is calculated. Each ATC 5 group has a given per cent reimbursement level and the fixed amount paid by the HNIF for all drugs in the group is defined as the given percentage of the mean price. This sum is reimbursed irrespective whether the products are patent protected or not, furthermore those drugs whose price is three times higher than the fixed mean price are excluded from the reimbursement system. As a result the patients' co-payment for the more expensive drugs will be significantly increased in the future. The basis of the therapeutic reference price is the assumption that the outcome of the treatment will be the same using drugs with the same mechanism of action. However, this assumption lacks valid scientific proof. According to the author, the proposed budget centric reference pricing system, which does not take into account the differing clinical pharmacologic profiles of the drugs, will significantly inhibit the use of new, innovative drugs, the establishment and continuous improvement of truly cost-effective patient care. Several alternative approaches are proposed for controlling drug budget. Finally the author recommends that a Committee should be established to develop a comprehensive proposal for the reorganization of the pricing and reimbursement system of the drugs available for general and/or hospital use, and for the follow-up of the health care effects of these measures.

Trends and affordability of cigarette prices: ample room for tax increases and related health gains

PubMed Central

Guindon, G; Tobin, S; Yach, D

2002-01-01

Objectives: To compare cigarette price data from more than 80 countries using varying methods, examine trends in prices and affordability during the 1990s, and explore various policy implications pertaining to tobacco prices. Design: March 2001 cigarette price data from the Economist Intelligence Unit are used to compare cigarette prices across countries. To facilitate comparison and to assess affordability, prices are presented in US dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP) units using the Big Mac index as an indicator of PPP and in terms of minutes of labour required to purchase a pack of cigarettes. Annual real percentage changes in cigarette prices between 1990 and 2000 and annual changes in the minutes of labour required to buy cigarettes between 1991 and 2000 are also calculated to examine trends. Results: Cigarette prices tend to be higher in wealthier countries and in countries that have strong tobacco control programmes. On the other hand, minutes of labour required to purchase cigarettes vary vastly between countries. Trends between 1990 and 2000 in real prices and minutes of labour indicate, with some exceptions, that cigarettes have become more expensive in most developed countries but more affordable in many developing countries. However, in the UK, despite recent increases in price, cigarettes are still more affordable than they were in the 1960s. Conclusions: The results suggest that there is ample room to increase tobacco prices through taxation. In too many countries, cigarette prices have failed to keep up with increases in the general price level of goods and services, rendering them more affordable in 2000 than they were at the beginning of the decade. Opportunities to increase government revenue and improve health through reduced consumption brought about by higher prices have been overlooked in many countries. PMID:11891366

Reducing Tobacco Use and Access Through Strengthened Minimum Price Laws

PubMed Central

Pearson, Anne; Laird-Metke, Elisa; Ribisl, Kurt

2014-01-01

Higher prices reduce consumption and initiation of tobacco products. A minimum price law that establishes a high statutory minimum price and prohibits the industry’s discounting tactics for tobacco products is a promising pricing strategy as an alternative to excise tax increases. Although some states have adopted minimum price laws on the basis of statutorily defined price “markups” over the invoice price, existing state laws have been largely ineffective at increasing the retail price. We analyzed 3 new variations of minimum price laws that hold great potential for raising tobacco prices and reducing consumption: (1) a flat rate minimum price law similar to a recent enactment in New York City, (2) an enhanced markup law, and (3) a law that incorporates both elements. PMID:25121820

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Brinkman, Greg; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator - New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-minmore » compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.« less

Tobacco product prices before and after a statewide tobacco tax increase.

PubMed

Brock, Betsy; Choi, Kelvin; Boyle, Raymond G; Moilanen, Molly; Schillo, Barbara A

2016-03-01

In 2013, the State of Minnesota Legislature passed a tobacco tax increase that increased the combined cigarette excise and sales tax by US$1.75 (from US$1.60 to US$3.35) and increased the tax on non-cigarette tobacco products from 70% to 95% of the wholesale price. The current study explores the change in tobacco prices in retail locations and whether the tax increase was fully passed to consumers. An observational study of tobacco retail prices was performed in a sample of 61 convenience stores in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Six rounds of data were collected between May 2013 and January 2014. In each round, purchases were made at the same stores for the same four tobacco products (Camel Blue cigarettes, Marlboro Gold cigarettes, Grizzly Wintergreen moist smokeless tobacco and Copenhagen Wintergreen moist smokeless tobacco). For all studied tobacco products, prices in Minnesota increased significantly after the tax increase (Round 1-Round 6). After controlling for price changes in neighbouring states, the average price difference in Minnesota for the two cigarette brands increased by US$1.89 and US$1.81, which are both more than the US$1.75 tax increase. For moist smokeless, the average price difference increased by US$0.90 and US$0.94. Significant price changes were not observed in the comparison states. After the introduction of the minimum moist smokeless tax, a significantly higher proportion of Minnesota stores offered price promotions on smokeless tobacco. A large tobacco tax resulted in an average retail cigarette price exceeding the tax, suggesting the industry over-shifted the cigarette tax increase to consumers in Minnesota. The findings support the known public health benefit of tobacco tax increases while highlighting the need for additional information about how, or if, tobacco companies use price promotions to blunt the impact of tax increases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. We explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for longterm reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs« less

Cigarette Price-Minimization Strategies by U.S. Smokers

PubMed Central

Xu, Xin; Pesko, Michael F.; Tynan, Michael A.; Gerzoff, Robert B.; Malarcher, Ann M.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Background Smokers may react to cigarette excise tax increases by engaging in price-minimization strategies (i.e., finding ways to reduce the cost of cigarette smoking) rather than by quitting or reducing their cigarette use, thereby reducing the public health benefits of such tax increases. Purpose To evaluate the state and national prevalence of five common cigarette price-minimization strategies and the size of price reductions obtained from these strategies. Methods Using data from the 2009–2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey, the prevalence of five common price-minimization strategies by type of strategy and by smoker’s cigarette consumption level were estimated. The price reductions associated with these price-minimization strategies also were evaluated. Analyses took place in November 2012. Results Approximately 55.4% of U.S. adult smokers used at least one of five price-minimization strategies in the previous year, with an average reduction of $1.27 per pack (22.0%). Results varied widely by state. Conclusions Cigarette price-minimization strategies are practiced widely among current smokers, and resulting price reductions are relatively large. Policies that decrease opportunities to effectively apply cigarette price-minimization strategies would increase the public health gains of cigarette excise tax increases. PMID:23597810

Longitudinal Study of Scientific Journal Prices in a Research Library.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marks, Kenneth E; And Others

1991-01-01

Describes a study that evaluated the determinants of price increases of scientific journals over time from a variety of publishers, disciplines, and countries. It was found that inflation and greater journal length explained most price increases, and that journal prices from commercial publishers increased much more rapidly than those from…

Cigarette Price Minimization Strategies in the United States: Price Reductions and Responsiveness to Excise Taxes

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction: Because cigarette price minimization strategies can provide substantial price reductions for individuals continuing their usual smoking behaviors following federal and state cigarette excise tax increases, we examined independent price reductions compensating for overlapping strategies. The possible availability of larger independent price reduction opportunities in states with higher cigarette excise taxes is explored. Methods: Regression analysis used the 2006–2007 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (N = 26,826) to explore national and state-level independent price reductions that smokers obtained from purchasing cigarettes (a) by the carton, (b) in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price than in the state of residence, and (c) in “some other way,” including online or in another country. Price reductions from these strategies are estimated jointly to compensate for known overlapping strategies. Results: Each strategy reduced the price of cigarettes by 64–94 cents per pack. These price reductions are 9%–22% lower than conventionally estimated results not compensating for overlapping strategies. Price reductions vary substantially by state. Following cigarette excise tax increases, the price reduction available from purchasing cigarettes by cartons increased. Additionally, the price reduction from purchasing cigarettes in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price is positively associated with state cigarette excise tax rates and border state cigarette excise tax rate differentials. Conclusions: Findings from this large, nationally representative study of cigarette smokers suggest that price reductions are larger in states with higher cigarette excise taxes, and increase as cigarette excise taxes rise. PMID:23729501

Producers add 3 cts/gal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vames, S.

Methanol list prices will continue to rise in March with a nominated price increase of 3 cts/gal (CW, Feb. 26, p. 39). The increases will bring Methanex`s posting price to 70 cts/gal, while most other producers will be at 67 cts/gal. Several producers, including Methanex and Hoechst, expanded capacity last month, but the methanol market remains strong and there are no indications that prices will soften soon. There are hints, however, that the rate of increase of methanol prices may slow. Tightness in the market seems to be easing as producers in eastern Europe increase capacity. The psychology of tightnessmore » was stoked by reports of spot and regional shortages and resulted in buying panics and price increases in fourth-quarter 1996.« less

[Why are some drugs so expensive? The price policy of pharmaceutical companies--"digging the grave of our health insurance-system"?].

PubMed

Glaeske, Gerd

2008-01-01

A decisive influence on the attractiveness of the German drug market is exerted by the institutions responsible for the prescribability of a drug in the framework of the Statutory Health Insurance (SHI). In this most lucrative segment of the German market, a host of reforms in recent years has led to declining transparency, where the short-lived regulatory interventions aimed - with limited success - at containing the increase in expenditure on drugs. From 1997 to 2003, however, new and patented drugs were largely protected against regulatory measures, such as fixed reimbursement rates (reference prices). However, only little use was made of this additional promotion of research activities. The majority of the new drugs in this period were me-too products, which only rarely had therapeutic advantages or advantages in the price competition with established medicines. In addition, the pharmaceutical companies widely use the privilege to set a price for drugs being prescribed in the SHI without undertaking any negotiations or presenting cost-effectiveness studies, which is unique in the European comparison. In future, the decision regarding the reimbursability of, or the reimbursable amount for, a preparation should thus be geared to lasting, transparent and unequivocal criteria guided by efficiency optimization and therapeutic progress.

[The Marketing of Healthcare Services in ENT-Clinics].

PubMed

Teschner, M; Lenarz, T

2016-07-01

The provision of healthcare services in Germany is based on fundamental principles of solidarity and is highly regulated. The question arises which conditions exist for marketing for healthcare services in ENT-clinics in Germany. The marketing options will be elicited using environmentally analytical considerations. The objectives can be achieved using measures derived from external instruments (service policy, pricing policy, distribution policy or communications policy) or from an internal instrument (human resources policy). The policy environment is particularly influenced by the regulatory framework, which particularly restricts the scope for both the pricing and communications policies. All measures must, however, reflect ethical frameworks, which are regarded as the fundamental premise underlying healthcare services and may be at odds with economic factors. Scope for flexibility in pricing exists only within the secondary healthcare market, and even there only to a limited extent. The significance of price in the marketing of healthcare services is thus very low. If marketing activities are to succeed, a market analysis must be carried out exploring the relevant factors for each individual provider. However, the essential precondition for the marketing of healthcare services is trust. The marketing of healthcare services differs from that of business management-oriented enterprises in other branches of economy. In the future the importance of marketing activities will increase. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.

PubMed

Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2011-07-05

This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.

Balancing medicine prices and business sustainability: analyses of pharmacy costs, revenues and profit shed light on retail medicine mark-ups in rural Kyrgyzstan

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Numerous not-for-profit pharmacies have been created to improve access to medicines for the poor, but many have failed due to insufficient financial planning and management. These pharmacies are not well described in health services literature despite strong demand from policy makers, implementers, and researchers. Surveys reporting unaffordable medicine prices and high mark-ups have spurred efforts to reduce medicine prices, but price reduction goals are arbitrary in the absence of information on pharmacy costs, revenues, and profit structures. Health services research is needed to develop sustainable and "reasonable" medicine price goals and strategic initiatives to reach them. Methods We utilized cost accounting methods on inventory and financial information obtained from a not-for-profit rural pharmacy network in mountainous Kyrgyzstan to quantify costs, revenues, profits and medicine mark-ups during establishment and maintenance periods (October 2004-December 2007). Results Twelve pharmacies and one warehouse were established in remote Kyrgyzstan with < US $25,000 due to governmental resource-sharing. The network operated at break-even profit, leaving little room to lower medicine prices and mark-ups. Medicine mark-ups needed for sustainability were greater than originally envisioned by network administration. In 2005, 55%, 35%, and 10% of the network's top 50 products revealed mark-ups of < 50%, 50-99% and > 100%, respectively. Annual mark-ups increased dramatically each year to cover increasing recurrent costs, and by 2007, only 19% and 46% of products revealed mark-ups of < 50% and 50-99%, respectively; while 35% of products revealed mark-ups > 100%. 2007 medicine mark-ups varied substantially across these products, ranging from 32% to 244%. Mark-ups needed to sustain private pharmacies would be even higher in the absence of government subsidies. Conclusion Pharmacy networks can be established in hard-to-reach regions with little funding using public-private partnership, resource-sharing models. Medicine prices and mark-ups must be interpreted with consideration for regional costs of business. Mark-ups vary dramatically across medicines. Some mark-ups appear "excessive" but are likely necessary for pharmacy viability. Pharmacy financial data is available in remote settings and can be used towards determination of "reasonable" medicine price goals. Health systems researchers must document the positive and negative financial experiences of pharmacy initiatives to inform future projects and advance access to medicines goals. PMID:20626904

Balancing medicine prices and business sustainability: analyses of pharmacy costs, revenues and profit shed light on retail medicine mark-ups in rural Kyrgyzstan.

PubMed

Waning, Brenda; Maddix, Jason; Soucy, Lyne

2010-07-13

Numerous not-for-profit pharmacies have been created to improve access to medicines for the poor, but many have failed due to insufficient financial planning and management. These pharmacies are not well described in health services literature despite strong demand from policy makers, implementers, and researchers. Surveys reporting unaffordable medicine prices and high mark-ups have spurred efforts to reduce medicine prices, but price reduction goals are arbitrary in the absence of information on pharmacy costs, revenues, and profit structures. Health services research is needed to develop sustainable and "reasonable" medicine price goals and strategic initiatives to reach them. We utilized cost accounting methods on inventory and financial information obtained from a not-for-profit rural pharmacy network in mountainous Kyrgyzstan to quantify costs, revenues, profits and medicine mark-ups during establishment and maintenance periods (October 2004-December 2007). Twelve pharmacies and one warehouse were established in remote Kyrgyzstan with < US $25,000 due to governmental resource-sharing. The network operated at break-even profit, leaving little room to lower medicine prices and mark-ups. Medicine mark-ups needed for sustainability were greater than originally envisioned by network administration. In 2005, 55%, 35%, and 10% of the network's top 50 products revealed mark-ups of < 50%, 50-99% and > 100%, respectively. Annual mark-ups increased dramatically each year to cover increasing recurrent costs, and by 2007, only 19% and 46% of products revealed mark-ups of < 50% and 50-99%, respectively; while 35% of products revealed mark-ups > 100%. 2007 medicine mark-ups varied substantially across these products, ranging from 32% to 244%. Mark-ups needed to sustain private pharmacies would be even higher in the absence of government subsidies. Pharmacy networks can be established in hard-to-reach regions with little funding using public-private partnership, resource-sharing models. Medicine prices and mark-ups must be interpreted with consideration for regional costs of business. Mark-ups vary dramatically across medicines. Some mark-ups appear "excessive" but are likely necessary for pharmacy viability. Pharmacy financial data is available in remote settings and can be used towards determination of "reasonable" medicine price goals. Health systems researchers must document the positive and negative financial experiences of pharmacy initiatives to inform future projects and advance access to medicines goals.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drury, E.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.

2013-01-01

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.

East Europe Report, Science and Technology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-01-02

modules. The form of network call-up which the programmer can use depends on the source language. These can be actual calls, stored segments or systemic...view of the ever increasing problems, shortages and prices of paper, some Japanese specialists predict that books of the future will not be printed on...Key: 1. Material being measured 2. Radiation source The use of nucleonics in medicine refers to a wide field of applications for diagnosis and

The Dynamic Effects of Changes in Prices and Affordability on Alcohol Consumption: An Impulse Response Analysis.

PubMed

Jiang, Heng; Livingston, Michael

2015-11-01

To investigate how changes in alcohol price and affordability are related to aggregate level alcohol consumption in Australia to help to inform effective price and tax policy to influence consumption. Annual time series data between 1974 and 2012 on price and per-capita consumption for beer, wine and spirits and average weekly income were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and impulse response analysis, the dynamic responses of alcohol consumption to changes in alcohol prices and affordability were estimated. Alcohol consumption in Australia was negatively associated with alcohol price and positively associated with the affordability of alcohol. The results of the impulse response analysis suggest that a 10% increase in the alcohol price was associated with a 2% decrease in the population-level alcohol consumption in the following year, with further, diminishing, effects up to year 8, leading to an overall 6% reduction in total consumption. In contrast, when alcohol affordability increased, per-capita alcohol consumption increased over the following 6 years. Our findings suggest that increasing alcohol prices or taxes can help to reduce alcohol consumption at the population level in Australia. However, the impact of affordability in our findings highlights that pricing policies need to consider increases in income to ensure effectiveness. Alcohol price policy should only cautiously focus on individual beverage types, because increasing the price of one beverage generally leads to an increase in consumption of substitutes. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Is parallel trade in medicines compatible with the single European market?

PubMed

Senior, I

1992-01-01

For many years the varying methods of price control of medicines by national governments in the European Community (and elsewhere) have resulted in wide variations in prices. Parallel traders buy products in low pricing Community countries and sell them, generally relabelled or repackaged, in high pricing Community countries. This practice diverts sales revenue and profits from the manufacturers to the traders, distributors, pharmacists and, in some measure, to the sickness funds and to some patients. While parallel trade appeals to those who gain financially, its basis is a market distortion that poses a significant threat to the future of the research-based pharmaceutical industry.

MORAL HAZARD IN HEALTH INSURANCE: DO DYNAMIC INCENTIVES MATTER?

PubMed Central

Aron-Dine, Aviva; Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark

2016-01-01

Using data from employer-provided health insurance and Medicare Part D, we investigate whether healthcare utilization responds to the dynamic incentives created by the nonlinear nature of health insurance contracts. We exploit the fact that, because annual coverage usually resets every January, individuals who join a plan later in the year face the same initial (“spot”) price of healthcare but a higher expected end-of-year (“future”) price. We find a statistically significant response of initial utilization to the future price, rejecting the null that individuals respond only to the spot price. We discuss implications for analysis of moral hazard in health insurance. PMID:26769985

Effects of the Fuel Price Increase on the Operating Cost of Freight Transport Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gohari, Adel; Matori, Nasir; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Toloue, Iraj; Myint, Kin Cho

2018-03-01

One of the most important criteria in freight modal choices is the transport operating cost in which fuel price changes has a significant effect on it. This paper presents the impact of fuel price increases on the operating cost of the different transport modes for the containerized freight transportation. In this study, an operating cost equation was applied to compare the operating cost of different freight transport vehicles as well as evaluation of the operating cost changes across a range of fuel prices between the current price and one-hundred percent increase. The equation consists of influential parameters such as fuel cost, driver wage and maintenance cost of a vehicle. It has been concluded that the effect of the fuel price increase on the operating cost of different freight transportation modes is not in the same rate. According to equation and effective parameters considered, comparing the results showed that truck has the highest cost, train has the largest increase in price. Finally, the ship is the most influenced vehicle in terms of operating cost percentage increase when the rate of fuel price increase, followed by train and truck.

Corn ethanol production, food exports, and indirect land use change.

PubMed

Wallington, T J; Anderson, J E; Mueller, S A; Kolinski Morris, E; Winkler, S L; Ginder, J M; Nielsen, O J

2012-06-05

The approximately 100 million tonne per year increase in the use of corn to produce ethanol in the U.S. over the past 10 years, and projections of greater future use, have raised concerns that reduced exports of corn (and other agricultural products) and higher commodity prices would lead to land-use changes and, consequently, negative environmental impacts in other countries. The concerns have been driven by agricultural and trade models, which project that large-scale corn ethanol production leads to substantial decreases in food exports, increases in food prices, and greater deforestation globally. Over the past decade, the increased use of corn for ethanol has been largely matched by the increased corn harvest attributable mainly to increased yields. U.S. exports of corn, wheat, soybeans, pork, chicken, and beef either increased or remained unchanged. Exports of distillers' dry grains (DDG, a coproduct of ethanol production and a valuable animal feed) increased by more than an order of magnitude to 9 million tonnes in 2010. Increased biofuel production may lead to intensification (higher yields) and extensification (more land) of agricultural activities. Intensification and extensification have opposite impacts on land use change. We highlight the lack of information concerning the magnitude of intensification effects and the associated large uncertainties in assessments of the indirect land use change associated with corn ethanol.

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

PubMed Central

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-01-01

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

PubMed

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Reserve growth during financial volatility in a technologically challenging world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, Timothy R.; Gautier, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Reserve growth (growth-to-known) is the addition of oil and gas quantities to reported proved or proved-plus-probable reserves in discovered fields. The amount of reserve growth fluctuates through time with prevailing economic and technological conditions. Most reserve additions are the result of investment in field operations and in development technology. These investments can be justified by higher prices of oil and gas, the desire to maintain cash flow, and by greater recovery efficiency in well established fields. The price/cost ratio affects decisions for field abandonment and (or) implementation of improved recovery methods. Although small- to medium-size fields might show higher percentages of reserve growth, a relatively few giant fields contribute most volumetric reserve growth, indicating that companies may prefer to invest in existing fields with low geologic and production risk and an established infrastructure in order to increase their price/cost relationship. Whereas many previous estimates of reserve growth were based on past trends of reported reserves, future reserve growth is expected to be greatly affected by financial volatility and fluctuating economic and technological conditions.

Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. Bymore » providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.« less

Recombinant Human Insulin in Global Diabetes Management – Focus on Clinical Efficacy

PubMed Central

Mbanya, Jean Claude; Sandow, Juergen; Landgraf, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

Abstract Biosynthetic human insulin and insulin analogues are the mainstay of insulin therapy for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes although access to human insulin at affordable prices remains a global issue. The world is experiencing an exponential rise in the prevalence of diabetes presenting an urgent need to establish effective diabetes therapy in countries burdened by inadequate health care budgets, malnutrition and infectious diseases. Recombinant human insulin has replaced animal insulins and animal-based semisynthetic human insulin thereby available in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices able to provide global access to insulin therapy. In many patients, analog insulins can offer additional clinical benefit, although at a considerably higher price thus severely restricting availability in low income countries. The approval process for recombinant human insulins (i.e. biosimilars) and analogue insulins is highly variable in the developing countries in contrast to Europe and in North America, where it is well established within a strict regulatory framework. This review aims to discuss the future access to human insulin therapy in a global context with an ever increasing burden of diabetes and significant economic implications. PMID:29632602

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production.

PubMed

Yao, Guolin; Staples, Mark D; Malina, Robert; Tyner, Wallace E

2017-01-01

Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm. The stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions. Technical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... such security future is a stock, the product of the daily settlement price of such security future as shown by any regularly published reporting or quotation service, and the applicable number of shares per... regulations applicable to financial relations between a security futures intermediary and a customer with...

Price and maternal obesity influence purchasing of low- and high-energy-dense foods2

PubMed Central

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Paluch, Rocco A; Roemmich, James N; Cho, David

2007-01-01

Background Price can influence food purchases, which can influence consumption. Limited laboratory research has assessed the effect of price changes on food purchases, and no research on individual differences that may interact with price to influence purchases exists. Objective We aimed to assess the influence of price changes of low-energy-density (LED) and high-energy-density (HED) foods on mother’s food purchases in a laboratory food-purchasing analogue. Design Mothers were randomly assigned to price conditions in which the price of either LED or HED foods was manipulated from 75% to 125% of the reference purchase price, whereas the price of the alternative foods was kept at the reference value. Mothers completed purchases for 2 income levels ($15 or $30 per family member). Results Purchases were reduced when prices of LED (P < 0.01) and HED (P < 0.001) foods were increased. Maternal BMI interacted with price to influence purchases of HED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.016) and interacted with price to influence purchases of LED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.008). Conclusion These results show the relevance of considering price change as a way to influence food purchases of LED compared with HED foods and the possibility that individual differences may influence the own-price elasticity of HED foods and substitution of LED for HED foods. PMID:17921365

Price and maternal obesity influence purchasing of low- and high-energy-dense foods.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Paluch, Rocco A; Roemmich, James N; Cho, David

2007-10-01

Price can influence food purchases, which can influence consumption. Limited laboratory research has assessed the effect of price changes on food purchases, and no research on individual differences that may interact with price to influence purchases exists. We aimed to assess the influence of price changes of low-energy-density (LED) and high-energy-density (HED) foods on mother's food purchases in a laboratory food-purchasing analogue. Mothers were randomly assigned to price conditions in which the price of either LED or HED foods was manipulated from 75% to 125% of the reference purchase price, whereas the price of the alternative foods was kept at the reference value. Mothers completed purchases for 2 income levels ($15 or $30 per family member). Purchases were reduced when prices of LED (P < 0.01) and HED (P < 0.001) foods were increased. Maternal BMI interacted with price to influence purchases of HED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.016) and interacted with price to influence purchases of LED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.008). These results show the relevance of considering price change as a way to influence food purchases of LED compared with HED foods and the possibility that individual differences may influence the own-price elasticity of HED foods and substitution of LED for HED foods.

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal Acquisition... a representation as to the accuracy of the contractor's judgment on the estimate f future costs or... current data, the contractor's responsibility is not limited by any lack of personal knowledge of the...

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal Acquisition... a representation as to the accuracy of the contractor's judgment on the estimate f future costs or... current data, the contractor's responsibility is not limited by any lack of personal knowledge of the...

75 FR 41914 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-19

... consolidated last sale price by the same specified percentage. The numerical percentage proposed to be used in the Trading Collar price calculations will be equal to the appropriate ``numerical guideline... Collars will automatically be adjusted to match any future changes in the numerical guidelines in NYSE...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 36 - Guidance on, and Acceptable Practices in, Compliance With Core Principles

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... have clear procedures and guidelines for decision-making regarding emergency intervention in the market... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION EXEMPT MARKETS Pt. 36, App. B Appendix B to Part 36—Guidance on, and... trading in significant price discovery contracts to prevent market manipulation, price distortion, and...

2050: A Pricing Odyssey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faruqui, Ahmad

2006-10-15

The author uses the Rip Van Winkle approach favored by marketers to gaze, clear-eyed, into the future - say, the year 2050 - to visualize alternative demand-response possibilities. Dare we go California Dreamin' of a distant utopia - or is it inevitable that pricing myopia will keep us from attaining the fulfillment of many of our career goals? (author)

Sociological Factors Affecting Agricultural Price Risk Management in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John

2009-01-01

The highly volatile auction system in Australia accounts for 85 percent of ex-farm wool sales, with the remainder sold by forward contract, futures, and other hedging methods. In this article, against the background of an extensive literature on price risk strategies, we investigate the behavioral factors associated with producers' adoption of…

Hydrogen Storage Technologies for Future Energy Systems.

PubMed

Preuster, Patrick; Alekseev, Alexander; Wasserscheid, Peter

2017-06-07

Future energy systems will be determined by the increasing relevance of solar and wind energy. Crude oil and gas prices are expected to increase in the long run, and penalties for CO 2 emissions will become a relevant economic factor. Solar- and wind-powered electricity will become significantly cheaper, such that hydrogen produced from electrolysis will be competitively priced against hydrogen manufactured from natural gas. However, to handle the unsteadiness of system input from fluctuating energy sources, energy storage technologies that cover the full scale of power (in megawatts) and energy storage amounts (in megawatt hours) are required. Hydrogen, in particular, is a promising secondary energy vector for storing, transporting, and distributing large and very large amounts of energy at the gigawatt-hour and terawatt-hour scales. However, we also discuss energy storage at the 120-200-kWh scale, for example, for onboard hydrogen storage in fuel cell vehicles using compressed hydrogen storage. This article focuses on the characteristics and development potential of hydrogen storage technologies in light of such a changing energy system and its related challenges. Technological factors that influence the dynamics, flexibility, and operating costs of unsteady operation are therefore highlighted in particular. Moreover, the potential for using renewable hydrogen in the mobility sector, industrial production, and the heat market is discussed, as this potential may determine to a significant extent the future economic value of hydrogen storage technology as it applies to other industries. This evaluation elucidates known and well-established options for hydrogen storage and may guide the development and direction of newer, less developed technologies.

A review of the health and economic implications of patent protection, with a specific focus on Thailand

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although it has been two decades since the Thai Patent Act was amended to comply with the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), there has been little emphasis given to assessing the implications of this amendment. The purpose of this review is to summarize the health and economic impact of patent protection, with a focus on the experience of Thailand. Methods A review of national and international empirical evidence on the health and economic implications of patents from 1980 to 2009 was undertaken. Results The findings illustrate the role of patent protection in four areas: price, present access, future access, and international trade and investment. Forty-three empirical studies were found, three of which were from Thai databases. Patenting does increase price, although the size of effect differs according to the methodology and country. Although weakening patent rights could increase present access, evidence suggests that strengthening patenting may benefit future access; although this is based on complex assumptions and estimations. Moreover, while patent protection appears to have a positive impact on trade flow, the implication for foreign direct investment (FDI) is equivocal. Conclusions Empirical studies in Thailand, and other similar countries, are rare, compromising the robustness and generalizability of conclusions. However, evidence does suggest that patenting presents a significant inter-temporal challenge in balancing aspects of current versus future access to technologies. This underlines the urgent need to prioritize health research resources to assess the wider implications of patent protection. PMID:22849392

Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

2017-04-01

Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.

International red meat trade.

PubMed

Brester, Gary W; Marsh, John M; Plain, Ronald L

2003-07-01

The maturation of the US beef and pork markets and increasing consumer demands for convenience, safety, and nutrition suggests that the beef and pork industries must focus on product development and promotion. New marketing arrangements are developing that help coordinate production with consumer demands. The relative high levels of incomes in the United States are likely to increase the demands for branded products rather than increase total per capita consumption. Foreign markets represent the greatest opportunity for increased demand for commodity beef and pork products. Increasing incomes in developing countries will likely allow consumers to increase consumption of animal-source proteins. Real prices of beef and pork have declined substantially because of sagging domestic demand and increasing farm-level production technologies. Increasing US beef and pork exports have obviated some of the price declines. Pork attained a net export position from a quantity perspective in 1995. The United States continues to be a net importer of beef on a quantity basis but is close to becoming a net exporter in terms of value. By-products continue to play a critical role in determining the red meat trade balance and producer prices. The United States, however, must continue to become cost, price, and quality competitive with other suppliers and must secure additional market access if it is to sustain recent trade trends. Several trade tensions remain in the red meat industry. For example, mandated COOL will undoubtedly have domestic and international effects on the beef and pork sectors. Domestically, uncertainty regarding consumer demand responses or quality perceptions regarding product origin, as well as added processor-retailer costs will be nontrivial. How these factors balance out in terms of benefits versus costs to the industry is uncertain. From an international perspective, some beef and pork export suppliers to the United States could view required labeling as a trade restriction, which could ultimately impact future US red meat exports. Conversely, some countries may view such labeling requirements as an opportunity to brand high-quality products. The US lamb meat industry has experienced declining real prices, domestic production, and demand. The cessation of wool incentive payments, increased environmental regulations, and competition by imports have significantly affected the industry. Import suppliers have capitalized on product quality in this niche market. Trade restrictions initially imposed in 1999 by the US Government were ruled illegal by the WTO. The US Government responded by providing financial assistance to lamb producers. Product quality improvements and promotion aimed at the domestic market, however, will be critical factors in shaping the economic viability of the US lamb meat industry.

PV solar electricity: status and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Winfried

2006-04-01

Within the four main market segments of PV solar electricity there are already three areas competitive today. These are off-grid industrial and rural as well as consumer applications. The overall growth within the past 8 years was almost 40 % p.a. with a "normal" growth of about 18 % p.a. for the first three market segments whereas the grid connected market increased with an astonishing 63 % p.a. The different growth rates catapulted the contribution of grid connected systems in relation to the total market from about one quarter 6 years ago towards more than three quarters today. The reason for this development is basically due to industry-politically induced market support programs in the aforementioned countries. It is quite important to outline under which boundary conditions grid connected systems will be competitive without support programs like the feed in tariff system in Germany, Spain and some more to come in Europe as well as investment subsidies in Japan, US and some other countries. It will be shown that in a more and more liberalized utility market worldwide electricity produced by PV solar electricity systems will be able to compete with their generating cost against peak power prices from utilities. The point of time for this competitiveness is mainly determined by the following facts: 1. Price decrease for PV solar electricity systems leading to an equivalent decrease in the generated cost for PV produced kWh. 2. Development of a truly liberalized electricity market. 3. Degree of irradiation between times of peak power demand and delivery of PV electricity. The first topic is discussed using price experience curves. Some explanations will be given to correlate the qualitative number of 20 % price decrease for doubling cumulative worldwide sales derived from the historic price experience curve with a more quantitative analysis based on our EPIA-Roadmap (productivity increase and ongoing improvements for existing technologies as well as development of new concepts to broaden the product portfolio in coming years). The second topic outlines the most likely development of liberalized electricity markets in various regions worldwide. It will be emphasized that in such markets the future prices for electricity will more and more reflect the different cost for bulk and peak power production. This will not only happen for industrial electricity customers - as already today in many countries - but also for private households. The third topic summarizes the existing data and facts by correlating peak power demand and prices traded in various stock exchange markets with delivered PV kWh. It will be shown that a high degree of correlation is existent. Combining the three topics and postulating reverse net metering the competitiveness of PV solar electricity as described is most likely to occur. The described price decrease of modules will also have a very positive impact on off-grid rural applications, mainly in 3rd world countries. It will be shown that this is strongly advanced due to the development of mini-grids starting from solar home systems - with mini grids looking very similar to on-grid applications in weak grid areas of nowadays electricity network.

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

PubMed Central

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-01-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior. PMID:24671011

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-03-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior.

Differential Responsiveness to Cigarette Price by Education and Income among Adult Urban Chinese Smokers

PubMed Central

Huang, Jidong; Zheng, Rong; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Jiang, Yuan

2015-01-01

Background There are few studies that examine the impact of tobacco tax and price policies in China. In addition, very little is known about the differential responses to tax and price increases based on socioeconomic status in China. Objective The goal of this study is to estimate the conditional cigarette consumption price elasticity among adult urban smokers in China using individual level longitudinal survey data. We also examine the differential responses to cigarette price increases among groups with different income and/or educational levels. Methods Multivariate analyses using the general estimating equations (GEE) method were conducted to estimate the conditional cigarette demand price elasticity using data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey, a longitudinal survey of adult smokers in seven cities in China. The first three waves of the ITC China Survey data were used in this analysis. Analyses based on subsample by education and income were conducted. Findings Our results show that overall conditional cigarette demand price elasticity ranges from −0.12 to −0.14, implying a 10% increase in cigarette price would result in a reduction in cigarette consumption among adult urban Chinese smokers by 1.2% to 1.4%. No differential responses to cigarette price increase were found across education levels. The price elasticity estimates do not differ between high income smokers and medium income smokers. However, cigarette consumption among low income smokers did not seem to decrease after a price increase, at least among those who continued to smoke. Conclusion Relative to many other low- and middle-income countries, cigarette consumption among Chinese adult smokers is not very sensitive to changes in cigarette prices. The total impact of cigarette price increase would be larger if its impact on smoking initiation and cessation, as well as the price-reducing behaviors such as brand switching and trading down, were taken into account. PMID:25855640

Real inflation of journal prices: medical journals, U.S. journals, and Brandon list journals.

PubMed Central

Kronenfeld, M R; Gable, S H

1983-01-01

Increases in price during the last twenty years were studied for the journals listed in the 1983 Brandon list, and during the last fifteen years for all medical journals and for U.S. periodicals overall. When compared with increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), prices in all three categories of publications have increased much more rapidly than have prices overall. Libraries whose journal-acquisition budgets increased merely at the same rate as the CPI during the periods examined today can purchase only 50% to 70% of the journals they purchased in 1963. This information should help librarians justify budget increases. PMID:6652296

Quantum-like Viewpoint on the Complexity and Randomness of the Financial Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

In economics and financial theory, analysts use random walk and more general martingale techniques to model behavior of asset prices, in particular share prices on stock markets, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. This practice has its basis in the presumption that investors act rationally and without bias, and that at any moment they estimate the value of an asset based on future expectations. Under these conditions, all existing information affects the price, which changes only when new information comes out. By definition, new information appears randomly and influences the asset price randomly. Corresponding continuous time models are based on stochastic processes (this approach was initiated in the thesis of [4]), see, e.g., the books of [33] and [37] for historical and mathematical details.

Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1987

Treesearch

John S. Vissage

1990-01-01

In 1987, the average price per cord of Midsouth pulpwood was $47.47, an increase of less than 1 percent from the 1988 price. The average price per green ton of chipped residues decreased less than 1 percent to $2164. The average price of other residues remained at $10.25 per green ton. The total expenditure for pulpwood in the Midsouth increased approximately 1...

The price sensitivity of cigarette consumption in Bangladesh: evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) Surveys.

PubMed

Nargis, Nigar; Ruthbah, Ummul H; Hussain, A K M Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T; Huq, Iftekharul; Ashiquzzaman, S M

2014-03-01

In Bangladesh, the average excise tax on cigarettes accounted for just 38% of the average retail price of cigarettes in 2009, and 45% in 2010. Both these rates are well below the WHO recommended share of 70% of the retail price at a minimum. There is thus ample room for raising taxes on cigarettes in Bangladesh. The objective of the present work was therefore to estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and the effect of tax increases on the consumption of cigarettes and on tax revenue in Bangladesh. Based on data from Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) of the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh Survey, we estimated the overall impact of a price change on cigarette demand using a two-part model. The total price elasticity of cigarettes was measured by the sum of the elasticity of smoking prevalence and the elasticity of average daily consumption conditional on smoking participation. The price elasticity estimates were used in a simulation model to predict changes in cigarette consumption and tax revenue from tax and price increases. The total price elasticity of demand for cigarettes was estimated at -0.49. The elasticity of smoking prevalence accounted for 59% of the total price elasticity. The price elasticity of cigarette consumption is higher for people belonging to lower socioeconomic status. Increases in taxes would result in a significant reduction in cigarette consumption while increasing tax revenue. Raising cigarette prices through increased taxation could lead to a win-win-win situation in Bangladesh: it would reduce cigarette consumption, increase tobacco tax revenue and potentially decrease socioeconomic inequities.

The Price Sensitivity of Cigarette Consumption in Bangladesh: Evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) Surveys

PubMed Central

Nargis, Nigar; Ruthbah, Ummul H.; Hussain, AKM Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Huq, Iftekharul; Ashiquzzaman, SM

2014-01-01

Background In Bangladesh, the average excise tax on cigarettes accounted for merely 38% in 2009 and 45% in 2010 of the average retail price of cigarettes. It is well below the WHO recommended share of 70% of the retail price at a minimum. There is thus ample room for raising taxes on cigarettes in Bangladesh. Objective The objective of the paper is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and the effect of tax increases on the consumption of cigarettes and on tax revenue in Bangladesh. Methods Based on data from Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) of the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh Survey, we estimate the overall impact of a price change on cigarette demand using a two-part model. The total price elasticity of cigarettes is measured by the sum of the elasticity of smoking prevalence and the elasticity of average daily consumption conditional on smoking participation. The price elasticity estimates are used in a simulation model to predict changes in cigarette consumption and tax revenue from tax and price increases. Findings The total price elasticity of demand for cigarettes is estimated at −0.49. The elasticity of smoking prevalence accounts for 59% of the total price elasticity. The price elasticity of cigarette consumption is higher for people belonging to lower socio-economic status. Increases in taxes would result in significant reduction in cigarette consumption while tax revenue increases. Conclusion Raising cigarette price through increased taxation can lead to a win-win-win situation in Bangladesh—it will reduce cigarette consumption, increase tobacco tax revenue and potentially decrease socio-economic inequities. PMID:24105828

The choice of discount brand cigarettes: a comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA (2002-2005).

PubMed

Nargis, Nigar; Fong, Geoffrey T; Chaloupka, Frank J; Li, Qiang

2014-03-01

Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This article investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes versus premium brands. To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers' choice of discount brands versus premium brands. Using data from International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model. An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the USA. The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the USA during 2002-2005 and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands-which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax-may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes.

Drug pricing and control of health expenditures: a comparison between a proportional decision rule and a cost-per-QALY rule.

PubMed

Gandjour, Afschin

2015-01-01

In Germany, the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) makes recommendations for reimbursement prices of drugs on the basis of a proportional relationship between costs and health benefits. This paper analyzed the potential of IQWiG's decision rule to control health expenditures and used a cost-per-quality-adjusted life year (QALY) rule as a comparison. A literature search was conducted, and a theoretical model of health expenditure growth was built. The literature search shows that the median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of German cost-effectiveness analyses was €7650 per QALY gained, thus yielding a much lower threshold cost-effectiveness ratio for IQWiG's rule than an absolute rule at €30 000 per QALY. The theoretical model shows that IQWiG's rule is able to contain the long-term growth of health expenditures under the conservative assumption that future health increases at a constant absolute rate and that the threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increases at a smaller rate than health expenditures. In contrast, an absolute rule offers the potential for manufacturers to raise drug prices in response to the threshold, thus resulting in an initial spike in expenditures. Results suggest that IQWiG's proportional rule will lead to lower drug prices and a slower growth of health expenditures than an absolute cost-effectiveness threshold at €30 000 per QALY. This finding is surprising as IQWiG's rule-in contrast to a cost-per-QALY rule-does not start from a fixed budget. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Becker's rational addiction theory: An empirical test with price elasticities for distilled spirits in Denmark 1911-31.

PubMed

Skog, Ole-Jørgen; Melberg, Hans Olav

2006-10-01

To test an implication of Becker's rational addiction theory, namely that price changes will lead both to simultaneous consumption changes as well as lagged changes (and potentially also immediate changes if future changes in prices are anticipated). Time-series analysis, first of aggregate sales of distilled spirits and prices, controlled for gross national product (GNP), and secondly of deaths from delirium tremens. Denmark 1911-31. Price changes were very large in the period 1916-18 due to shortages during World War I, and the Danish case can be conceived as a natural experiment. No evidence for lagged price effects in the expected direction was found. On the contrary, the evidence pointed in the opposite direction. The immediate reduction in sales following rising prices are, to some degree, counteracted by an adjustment in the opposite direction the following year. The delirium tremens data confirm this pattern. Becker's theory is not confirmed. Several possible explanations are discussed. If the pattern observed in these data is representative of a more general mechanism, current price elasticity estimates may be too high, by ignoring lagged compensatory effects.

A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajipriya, N.

2012-10-01

The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1990

Treesearch

Patrick E. Miller

1992-01-01

In 1990, the average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $52.95, an increase of 5.7 percent since 1989. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues increased about 3.7 percent to $22.51. The total pulpwood expenditure for Midsouth pulpmills increased 13 percent to $1,883 million in 1990. In terms of 1981 dollars, real prices fell...

Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions.

PubMed

Cunningham, Scott; Finlay, Keith

2016-10-01

Successful supply-side interdictions into illegal drug markets are predicated on the responsiveness of drug prices to enforcement and the price elasticity of demand for addictive drugs. We present causal estimates that targeted interventions aimed at methamphetamine input markets ('precursor control') can temporarily increase retail street prices, but methamphetamine consumption is weakly responsive to higher drug prices. After the supply interventions, purity-adjusted prices increased then quickly returned to pre-treatment levels within 6-12 months, demonstrating the short-term effects of precursor control. The price elasticity of methamphetamine demand is -0.13 to -0.21 for self-admitted drug treatment admissions and between -0.24 and -0.28 for hospital inpatient admissions. We find some evidence of a positive cross-price effect for cocaine, but we do not find robust evidence that increases in methamphetamine prices increased heroin, alcohol, or marijuana drug use. This study can inform policy discussions regarding other synthesized drugs, including illicit use of pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

A Case Study of Pharmaceutical Pricing in China: Setting the Price for Off-Patent Originators.

PubMed

Hu, Shanlian; Zhang, Yabing; He, Jiangjiang; Du, Lixia; Xu, Mingfei; Xie, Chunyan; Peng, Ying; Wang, Linan

2015-08-01

This article aims to define a value-based approach to pricing and reimbursement for off-patent originators using a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach centered on a systematic analysis of current pricing and reimbursement policies in China. A drug price policy review was combined with a quantitative analysis of China's drug purchasing database. Policy preferences were identified through a MCDA performed by interviewing well-known academic experts and industry stakeholders. The study findings indicate that the current Chinese price policy includes cost-based pricing and the establishment of maximum retail prices and premiums for off-patent originators, whereas reference pricing may be adopted in the future. The literature review revealed significant differences in the dissolution profiles between originators and generics; therefore, dissolution profiles need to be improved. Market data analysis showed that the overall price ratio of generics and off-patent originators was around 0.54-0.59 in 2002-2011, with a 40% price difference, on average. Ten differentiating value attributes were identified and MCDA was applied to test the impact of three pricing policy scenarios. With the condition of implementing quality consistency regulations and controls, a reduction in the price gap between high-quality off-patent products (including originator and generics) seemed to be the preferred policy. Patents of many drugs will expire within the next 10 years; thus, pricing will be an issue of importance for off-patent originators and generic alternatives.

Uncertainties in the Value of Bill Savings from Behind-the-Meter, Residential Photovoltaic Systems: The Roles of Electricity Market Conditions, Retail Rate Design, and Net Metering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darghouth, Naim Richard

Net metering has become a widespread policy mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), allowing customers with PV systems to reduce their electric bills by offsetting their consumption with PV generation, independent of the timing of the generation relative to consumption. Although net metering is one of the principal drivers for the residential PV market in the U.S., the academic literature on this policy has been sparse and this dissertation contributes to this emerging body of literature. This dissertation explores the linkages between the availability of net metering, wholesale electricity market conditions, retail rates, and the residential bill savings from behind-the-meter PV systems. First, I examine the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering and alternatives to net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on current rates and a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. I find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies greatly, largely attributable to the increasing block structure of the California utilities' residential retail rates. I also find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than alternative compensation mechanisms based on avoided costs. However, retail electricity rates may shift as wholesale electricity market conditions change. I then investigate a potential change in market conditions -- increased solar PV penetrations -- on wholesale prices in the short-term based on the merit-order effect. This demonstrates the potential price effects of changes in market conditions, but also points to a number of methodological shortcomings of this method, motivating my usage of a long-term capacity investment and economic dispatch model to examine wholesale price effects of various wholesale market scenarios in the subsequent analysis. By developing three types of retail rates (a flat rate, a time-of-use rate, and real-time pricing) from these wholesale price profiles, I examine bill savings from PV generation for the ten wholesale market scenarios under net metering and an alternative to net metering where hourly excess PV generation is compensated at the wholesale price. Most generally, I challenge the common assertion that PV compensation is likely to stay constant (or rise) due to constant (or rising) retail rates, and find that future electricity market scenarios can drive substantial changes in residential retail rates and that these changes, in concert with variations in retail rate structures and PV compensation mechanisms, interact to place substantial uncertainty on the future value of bill savings from residential PV.

Pricing effects on food choices.

PubMed

French, Simone A

2003-03-01

Individual dietary choices are primarily influenced by such considerations as taste, cost, convenience and nutritional value of foods. The current obesity epidemic has been linked to excessive consumption of added sugars and fat, as well as to sedentary lifestyles. Fat and sugar provide dietary energy at very low cost. Food pricing and marketing practices are therefore an essential component of the eating environment. Recent studies have applied economic theories to changing dietary behavior. Price reduction strategies promote the choice of targeted foods by lowering their cost relative to alternative food choices. Two community-based intervention studies used price reductions to promote the increased purchase of targeted foods. The first study examined lower prices and point-of-purchase promotion on sales of lower fat vending machine snacks in 12 work sites and 12 secondary schools. Price reductions of 10%, 25% and 50% on lower fat snacks resulted in an increase in sales of 9%, 39% and 93%, respectively, compared with usual price conditions. The second study examined the impact of a 50% price reduction on fresh fruit and baby carrots in two secondary school cafeterias. Compared with usual price conditions, price reductions resulted in a four-fold increase in fresh fruit sales and a two-fold increase in baby carrot sales. Both studies demonstrate that price reductions are an effective strategy to increase the purchase of more healthful foods in community-based settings such as work sites and schools. Results were generalizable across various food types and populations. Reducing prices on healthful foods is a public health strategy that should be implemented through policy initiatives and industry collaborations.

Differential responsiveness to cigarette price by education and income among adult urban Chinese smokers: findings from the ITC China Survey.

PubMed

Huang, Jidong; Zheng, Rong; Chaloupka, Frank J; Fong, Geoffrey T; Jiang, Yuan

2015-07-01

Few studies have examined the impact of tobacco tax and price policies in China. In addition, very little is known about the differential responses to tax and price increases based on socioeconomic status in China. To estimate the conditional cigarette consumption price elasticity among adult urban smokers in China and to examine the differential responses to cigarette price increases among groups with different income and/or educational levels. Multivariate analyses employing the general estimating equations method were conducted using the first three waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey. Analyses based on subsample by education and income were conducted. Conditional cigarette demand price elasticity ranges from -0.12 to -0.14. No differential responses to cigarette price increase were found across education levels. The price elasticity estimates do not differ between high-income smokers and medium-income smokers. Cigarette consumption among low-income smokers did not decrease after a price increase, at least among those who continued to smoke. Relative to other low-income and middle-income countries, cigarette consumption among Chinese adult smokers is not very sensitive to changes in cigarette prices. The total impact of cigarette price increase would be larger if its impact on smoking initiation and cessation, as well as the price-reducing behaviours such as brand switching and trading down, were taken into account. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The feedback control cycle as regulator of past and future mineral supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellmer, Friedrich-W.; Dalheimer, Manfred

2012-10-01

Mineral supply is controlled by a feedback mechanism. When there is a shortage of a commodity in a market economy, prices will rise, triggering this mechanism. The expectation of high financial returns will encourage inventiveness and creativity in the quest for new solutions. On the supply side, for primary resources, the appropriate response is to cut losses in the mining process, to lower the cut-off grade, to improve recoveries in the beneficiation and smelting processes, to expand existing production facilities, and to discover and bring into production new deposits. For secondary resources, the key to increasing the supply lies in improving recycling rates by better technology, reprocessing lower-grade scrap which becomes economic because of increased prices, and reducing downgrading to optimize the usefulness of secondary materials. On the demand side, implementation of new and more efficient processes, development of substitution technologies, material savings, and the invention of entirely new technologies that fulfill the same function without the need of using the scarce and suddenly more expensive material are effective reactions to a price rise. The effectiveness of this self-regulating mechanism can be shown by examples of historical price peaks of metals, such as Mo, Co, and Ta, and the current rare earth elements peak. Concerning supply from secondary resources, a model is developed in order to determine how far the supply from this resource domain can be achieved and how the recycling rate is influenced by growth rate and lifetime. The feedback control cycle of mineral supply is influenced on the demand side by ever shorter life cycles, by products getting more complex with ever more elements involved in their production, and by an increase in element dispersion. All these factors have an immediate effect on the feasibility of sourcing raw materials from the technosphere. The supply side of primary materials is influenced by increasing lead times for new production and by relatively low flexibility in responding to changing demand.

Capacity Adequacy and Revenue Sufficiency in Electricity Markets With Wind Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levin, Todd; Botterud, Audun

2015-05-01

We present a computationally efficient mixed-integer program (MIP) that determines optimal generator expansion decisions, as well as periodic unit commitment and dispatch. The model is applied to analyze the impact of increasing wind power capacity on the optimal generation mix and the profitability of thermal generators. In a case study, we find that increasing wind penetration reduces energy prices while the prices for operating reserves increase. Moreover, scarcity pricing for operating reserves through reserve shortfall penalties significantly impacts the prices and profitability of thermal generators. Without scarcity pricing, no thermal units are profitable, however scarcity pricing can ensure profitability formore » peaking units at high wind penetration levels. Capacity payments can also ensure profitability, but the payments required for baseload units to break even increase with the amount of wind power. The results indicate that baseload units are most likely to experience revenue sufficiency problems when wind penetration increases and new baseload units are only developed when natural gas prices are high and wind penetration is low.« less

Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1984

Treesearch

Dennis M. May

1986-01-01

In 1984, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $50.55, an increase of 4.5 percent from 1983. The average price for a green ton of chipped residues also increased, up 9.0 percent to $25.44. However, the average price for a green ton of sawdust fell 17.3 percent to $10.79. Rail delivery prices for wood fiber continue to be lower than truck delivery...

Trends in Pulpwood Prices in the Southeast, 1962-1969

Treesearch

Cecil C. Hutchins

1970-01-01

Average prices paid for pulpwood bolts in the Southeast increased 5 percent in 1969 over the preceding year. Prices paid for roundwood averaged $20.90 per cord for pine and $16.35 for hardwood. Prices paid for chips averaged $8.45 per ton for pine and $6.75 for hardwood. Since 1962, average prices paid for pulpwood have increased by over 25 percent. Pulpmills...

Price differentiation and transparency in the global pharmaceutical marketplace.

PubMed

Ridley, David B

2005-01-01

Pharmaceutical manufacturers have increased the availability of their products and sometimes increased their own financial returns by charging lower prices outside of the US and by discounting to lower-income patients in the US. Examples include discounted HIV-AIDS drugs in developing countries and pharmaceutical manufacturers' discount cards in the US. Representatives of some international organisations argue that the price reductions are insufficient to make the medications widely available to lower-income patients. The WHO advocates both differential pricing and price transparency. While its efforts are well meaning, this paper identifies six concerns about its methods of comparing the price of a given molecule across manufacturers and across countries. More significantly, the WHO efforts to increase transparency are likely to lead to less price differentiation and less access to innovative pharmaceuticals. An important reason why manufacturers are reluctant to charge lower prices in lower-income countries is that they fear that such low prices will undermine the prices they charge to higher-income consumers. International organisations should not facilitate transparency but should dissuade governments from making price comparisons and basing their prices on those of lower-income countries. Furthermore, they should endeavour to keep low-priced and free drugs in the hands of the low-income consumers for which they were intended.

Economic and public health impact of 2007-2010 tobacco tax increases in Ukraine.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Stoklosa, Michal; Krasovsky, Konstantin

2012-07-01

To evaluate the impact of the dynamic 2007-2010 tobacco tax policy in Ukraine on cigarette prices, cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenue and the tobacco industry's price strategy. Using data on cigarette sales, cigarette prices, income and tobacco control policies, price elasticities of cigarette demand in Ukraine were estimated using two methods. Annual data were used to generate point price elasticity estimates, while monthly data were used in a two-step Engle-Granger procedure. The point price elasticity estimate is data sensitive and ranges from -0.11 to -0.62, centring around -0.32. The regression model estimates a long-run price elasticity of -0.28. Cigarette consumption fell by 13% in 2009 and 15% in 2010 while the tax revenue increased by US$700 million and by US$500 million in 2009 and 2010, respectively, compared to the previous year. Tax increases have changed the tobacco industry's price strategy from one of shielding consumers from the impact of smaller tax hikes in 2007-2008, to one of increasing industry net-of-tax prices, after recent, larger tax increases. The higher real tobacco excise taxes of 2009 and 2010 have significantly reduced tobacco consumption in Ukraine, resulting in encouraging public health and fiscal gains. It will be important for cigarette prices/taxes to keep pace with inflation and income growth for this impact to be sustained.

Unintended consequences of cigarette price changes for alcohol drinking behaviors across age groups: evidence from pooled cross sections

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Raising prices through taxation on tobacco and alcohol products is a common strategy to raise revenues and reduce consumption. However, taxation policies are product specific, focusing either on alcohol or tobacco products. Several studies document interactions between the price of cigarettes and general alcohol use and it is important to know whether increased cigarette prices are associated with varying alcohol drinking patterns among different population groups. To inform policymaking, this study investigates the association of state cigarette prices with smoking, and current, binge, and heavy drinking by age group. Methods The 2001-2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (n = 1,323,758) were pooled and analyzed using multiple regression equations to estimate changes in smoking and drinking pattern response to an increase in cigarette price, among adults aged 18 and older. For each outcome, a multiple linear probability model was estimated which incorporated terms interacting state cigarette price with age group. State and year fixed effects were included to control for potential unobserved state-level characteristics that might influence smoking and drinking. Results Increases in state cigarette prices were associated with increases in current drinking among persons aged 65 and older, and binge and heavy drinking among persons aged 21-29. Reductions in smoking were found among persons aged 30-64, drinking among those aged 18-20, and binge drinking among those aged 65 and older. Conclusions Increases in state cigarette prices may increase or decrease smoking and harmful drinking behaviors differentially by age. Adults aged 21-29 and 65 and older are more prone to increased drinking as a result of increased cigarette prices. Researchers, practitioners, advocates, and policymakers should work together to understand and prepare for these unintended consequences of tobacco taxation policy. PMID:22784412

Unintended consequences of cigarette price changes for alcohol drinking behaviors across age groups: evidence from pooled cross sections.

PubMed

McLellan, Deborah L; Hodgkin, Dominic; Fagan, Pebbles; Reif, Sharon; Horgan, Constance M

2012-07-11

Raising prices through taxation on tobacco and alcohol products is a common strategy to raise revenues and reduce consumption. However, taxation policies are product specific, focusing either on alcohol or tobacco products. Several studies document interactions between the price of cigarettes and general alcohol use and it is important to know whether increased cigarette prices are associated with varying alcohol drinking patterns among different population groups. To inform policymaking, this study investigates the association of state cigarette prices with smoking, and current, binge, and heavy drinking by age group. The 2001-2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (n = 1,323,758) were pooled and analyzed using multiple regression equations to estimate changes in smoking and drinking pattern response to an increase in cigarette price, among adults aged 18 and older. For each outcome, a multiple linear probability model was estimated which incorporated terms interacting state cigarette price with age group. State and year fixed effects were included to control for potential unobserved state-level characteristics that might influence smoking and drinking. Increases in state cigarette prices were associated with increases in current drinking among persons aged 65 and older, and binge and heavy drinking among persons aged 21-29. Reductions in smoking were found among persons aged 30-64, drinking among those aged 18-20, and binge drinking among those aged 65 and older. Increases in state cigarette prices may increase or decrease smoking and harmful drinking behaviors differentially by age. Adults aged 21-29 and 65 and older are more prone to increased drinking as a result of increased cigarette prices. Researchers, practitioners, advocates, and policymakers should work together to understand and prepare for these unintended consequences of tobacco taxation policy.

Alcohol tax pass-through across the product and price range: do retailers treat cheap alcohol differently?

PubMed

Ally, Abdallah K; Meng, Yang; Chakraborty, Ratula; Dobson, Paul W; Seaton, Jonathan S; Holmes, John; Angus, Colin; Guo, Yelan; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra S

2014-12-01

Effective use of alcohol duty to reduce consumption and harm depends partly on retailers passing duty increases on to consumers via price increases, also known as 'pass-through'. The aim of this analysis is to provide evidence of UK excise duty and sales tax (VAT) pass-through rates for alcohol products at different price points. March 2008 to August 2011, United Kingdom. Panel data quantile regression estimating the effects of three duty changes, two VAT changes and one combined duty and VAT change on UK alcohol prices, using product-level supermarket price data for 254 alcohol products available weekly. Products were analysed in four categories: beers, ciders/ready to drink (RTDs), spirits and wines. Within all four categories there exists considerable heterogeneity in the level of duty pass-through for cheaper versus expensive products. Price increases for the cheapest 15% of products fall below duty rises (undershifting), while products sold above the median price are overshifted (price increases are higher than duty increases). The level of undershifting is greatest for beer [0.85 (0.79, 0.92)] and spirits [0.86 (0.83, 0.89)]. Undershifting affects approximately 67% of total beer sales and 38% of total spirits sales. Alcohol retailers in the United Kingdom appear to respond to increases in alcohol tax by undershifting their cheaper products (raising prices below the level of the tax increase) and overshifting their more expensive products (raising prices beyond the level of the tax increase). This is likely to impact negatively on tax policy effectiveness, because high-risk groups favour cheaper alcohol and undershifting is likely to produce smaller consumption reductions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Multi-Agent simulation of generation capacity expansion decisions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botterud, A.; Mahalik, M.; Conzelmann, G.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we use a multi-agent simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze generation expansion in the Iberian electricity market. The expansion model simulates generation investment decisions of decentralized generating companies (GenCos) interacting in a complex, multidimensional environment. A probabilistic dispatch algorithm calculates prices and profits for new candidate units in different future states of the system. Uncertainties in future load, hydropower conditions, and competitorspsila actions are represented in a scenario tree, and decision analysis is used to identify the optimal expansion decision for each individual GenCo. We run the model using detailed data for the Iberian market. In a scenariomore » analysis, we look at the impact of market design variables, such as the energy price cap and carbon emission prices. We also analyze how market concentration and GenCospsila risk preferences influence the timing and choice of new generating capacity.« less

Mission: Impossible; It’s Time to Pull the Military Out of Drug Interdiction

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-01-01

greatly complicated the mmjuana law enforcement problem Domestlc production has reduced prices and de&ntrahzed Qstnbutlon, while indoor agronomic...techmques have greatly increased potency Annual seizures of marijuana now total less than 50,000 pounds - an amount we were seizing every five to SIX days...relative bulkiness, a constramt that does not apply to cocame, heroin, or any of the other drugs likely to be smuggled m the future I As marijuana

Energy and social change. [Books

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Toole, J.

1976-01-01

This book results from a 20-year forecast study by the author; energy decisions must be made now, today, he warns. But, unlike the current wave of gloomy predictions, he takes a step back from pessimism; a realistic perspective is offered, ''spiced'' with optimism. Misrepresented by some alarmists, energy is crucial, but by no means the sole determining force in American society, Mr. O'Toole says. The report's special contribution to the energy debate lies in its call for a redirection of attention to options that are realizable within the framework, and the limits, of the existing system. Two futures are discussed:more » (1) near term--from the present to the next ten or fifteen years; and (2) long term--beyond 1990. Advocating higher energy prices and more incentive for increased competition in the domestic energy market, the author supports a resurrection of the free enterprise system. The price of energy will and should increase in order to control waste, although the rise in costs will be mitigated by the gradual pace. In the long term, a quality economy should be our aim, characterized in part to reduce inefficiency and produce more meaningful jobs. Three of the ways in which this might be accomplished are: shifting to an electrically based economy; developing alternative forms of energy; and switching to technologies more appropriate to the future environment.« less

Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1992

Treesearch

Patrick E. Miller

1994-01-01

The average price in the Midsouth for a cord of roundwood pulpwood increased 5.1 percent from $56.39 in 1991 to $59.29 in 1992. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues was $27.30, an increase of 6.1 percent. In 1992, expenditures for Midsouth pulpwood increased 14.0 percent to $2.2 million. Real prices continued to rise for both softwood and...

A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

2010-08-01

We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, G.G.; Mayor, T.H.

This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to be used-car markets during the two energy crises of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality andmore » casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary. 17 references, 2 figures.« less

Structural Break, Stock Prices of Clean Energy Firms and Carbon Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yubao; Cai, Junyu

2018-03-01

This paper uses EU ETS carbon future price and Germany/UK clean energy firms stock indices to study the relationship between carbon market and clean energy market. By structural break test, it is found that the ‘non-stationary’ variables judged by classical unit root test do own unit roots and need taking first difference. After analysis of VAR and Granger causality test, no causal relationships are found between the two markets. However, when Hsiao’s version of causality test is employed, carbon market is found to have power in explaining the movement of stock prices of clean energy firms, and stock prices of clean energy firms also affect the carbon market.

78 FR 38416 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Miami International Securities Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-26

..., without limitation, options, equities, futures, derivatives, indexes, exchange traded funds, exchange...., equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures, foreign currency, and even commodities products... low as $0.05).\\13\\ \\13\\ As an example, per the CME Web site, strike prices for options on futures may...

48 CFR 217.7505 - Limitations on price increases.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Limitations on price... Acquisition of Replenishment Parts 217.7505 Limitations on price increases. This section provides implementing... award, on a sole source basis, a contract for any centrally managed replenishment part when the price of...

The Pricing of Economics Books.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laband, David; Hudson, John

2003-01-01

Examines the pricing and other characteristics of books. Notes substantial increases in book prices between 2000 and 1985 data. Suggests a major factor is the increasing importance of foreign presses that sell books at higher prices. Indicates that discount on paperbacks appear to have been relatively stable in the two years studied. (JEH)

Southeast Asia Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-26

Prices increased only by four per cent last year compared to six percent in 1982. "The other two key groups—drink, tobacco and betel nut ; and transport...and communication, however, recorded higher price increases last year. Betel- nut prices alone increased by as much as 69 percent," he said. Mr...Wingti said Government did not increase the price of betel- nut in order to keep the CPI high as Sir Julius seemed to imply. CSO: 4200/592 38 PAPUA

Intermediate Term Forecasting Techniques for Management.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

of Market Efficiency", Chiras and ranaster (1978) used actual option prices to calculate implied variances of future stock returns. They found a...of F*nance, v. 2 5 , p p . 6 5 -8 1 , M a r c h 1 9 1 0 .- .... . . . 23. Chiras D. P. and Nanaster, S., "The Infcrmation Content of Otion Prices and

The Rising Price of Objectivity: Philanthropy, Government, and the Future of Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feuer, Michael J.

2016-01-01

In "The Rising Price of Objectivity," Michael J. Feuer describes what he sees as a "perfect storm" gathering in the sea of education research. He notes the convergence of three important trends: first, the rise in strategic education philanthropy; second, the decline in federal funding, in part due to ideologically contested…

77 FR 76303 - Notice of Availability of Producer Price Index (PPI) Data Users Survey

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-27

... conducted a survey of PPI data users in late 1976 through early 1977. Since that time, numerous new time series data have been introduced with the goal of fulfilling the needs of data users. This survey will... series, and identify areas for future expansion. DATES: The Producer Price Index (PPI) user survey will...

The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa.

PubMed

Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic

2015-05-01

This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

Higher cigarette prices influence cigarette purchase patterns.

PubMed

Hyland, A; Bauer, J E; Li, Q; Abrams, S M; Higbee, C; Peppone, L; Cummings, K M

2005-04-01

To examine cigarette purchasing patterns of current smokers and to determine the effects of cigarette price on use of cheaper sources, discount/generic cigarettes, and coupons. Higher cigarette prices result in decreased cigarette consumption, but price sensitive smokers may seek lower priced or tax-free cigarette sources, especially if they are readily available. This price avoidance behaviour costs states excise tax money and dampens the health impact of higher cigarette prices. Telephone survey data from 3602 US smokers who were originally in the COMMIT (community intervention trial for smoking cessation) study were analysed to assess cigarette purchase patterns, use of discount/generic cigarettes, and use of coupons. 59% reported engaging in a high price avoidance strategy, including 34% who regularly purchase from a low or untaxed venue, 28% who smoke a discount/generic cigarette brand, and 18% who report using cigarette coupons more frequently that they did five years ago. The report of engaging in a price avoidance strategy was associated with living within 40 miles of a state or Indian reservation with lower cigarette excise taxes, higher average cigarette consumption, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, and female sex. Data from this study indicate that most smokers are price sensitive and seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts.

Does reimportation reduce price differences for prescription drugs? Lessons from the European Union.

PubMed

Kyle, Margaret K; Allsbrook, Jennifer S; Schulman, Kevin A

2008-08-01

To examine the effect of parallel trade on patterns of price dispersion for prescription drugs in the European Union. Longitudinal data from an IMS Midas database of prices and units sold for drugs in 36 categories in 30 countries from 1993 through 2004. The main outcome measures were mean price differentials and other measures of price dispersion within European Union countries compared with within non-European Union countries. We identified drugs subject to parallel trade using information provided by IMS and by checking membership lists of parallel import trade associations and lists of approved parallel imports. Parallel trade was not associated with substantial reductions in price dispersion in European Union countries. In descriptive and regression analyses, about half of the price differentials exceeded 50 percent in both European Union and non-European Union countries over time, and price distributions among European Union countries did not show a dramatic change concurrent with the adoption of parallel trade. In regression analysis, we found that although price differentials decreased after 1995 in most countries, they decreased less in the European Union than elsewhere. Parallel trade for prescription drugs does not automatically reduce international price differences. Future research should explore how other regulatory schemes might lead to different results elsewhere.

Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

PubMed

Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

2017-06-01

Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

PubMed

Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

2018-03-01

Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

Optimizing Household Chlorination Marketing Strategies: A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Price and Promotion on Adoption in Haiti.

PubMed

Ritter, Michael; Camille, Eveline; Velcine, Christophe; Guillaume, Rose-Kerline; Lantagne, Daniele

2017-07-01

Household water treatment can reduce diarrheal morbidity and mortality in developing countries, but adoption remains low and supply is often unreliable. To test effects of marketing strategies on consumers and suppliers, we randomized 1,798 households in rural Haiti and collected data on purchases of a household chlorination product for 4 months. Households received randomly selected prices ($0.11-$0.56 per chlorine bottle), and half received monthly visits from sales agents. Each $0.22 drop in price increased purchases by 0.10 bottles per household per month ( P < 0.001). At the mean price, each 1% drop in price increased purchases by 0.45% (elasticity = 0.45). There is suggestive evidence that household visits by some sales agents increased purchases at mid-range prices; however, the additional revenue did not offset visit cost. Choosing the lowest price and conducting visits maximizes chlorine purchase, whereas slightly raising the retail price and not conducting visits maximizes cost recovery. For the equivalent cost, price discounts increase purchases 4.2 times as much as adding visits at the current retail price. In this context, price subsidies may be a more cost-effective use of resources than household visits, though all marketing strategies tested offer cost-effective ways to achieve incremental health impact. Decisions about pricing and promotion for health products in developing countries affect health impact, cost recovery, and cost-effectiveness, and tradeoffs between these goals should be made explicit in program design.

[Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and alcohol in Ecuador, based on household data].

PubMed

Chávez, Ricardo

2016-10-01

Estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and alcohol in Ecuador using cross-sectional data from the National Survey of Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGHUR is the acronym in Spanish) 2011-2012. ENIGHUR 2011-2012 data were used with Deaton's (1, 2) methodology to estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and alcohol with expenditure and quantity information. Household socioeconomic variables were also included. Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes is -0.87, meaning that a 10% price increase could lead to an 8.7% decrease in consumption. Results for cross-price elasticities of alcohol on cigarette demand are negative, as expected, indicating that they are complementary goods; however, the results are not statistically significant. Furthermore, it was found that price elasticity of demand for alcohol is -0.44, meaning that a 10% increase in the price of alcohol would produce a 4.4% decrease in consumption. A policy of price increases, for example, with a tax increase, applied to both cigarettes and alcohol, could have a positive effect on public health through reductions in consumption of both goods. However, this measure would not be sufficient to bridge gaps in prevalence measures and health outcomes between sex and other population groups, given the observed difference in the sensitivity of consumption to price variations.

Oil Production, The Price Crash and Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2015-12-01

World oil production increased to about 74 million barrels per day by January 2005, and was fairly constant until 2011 when it started to increase to 77.8 mb/d in 2014. This spectacular increase of 4 mb/d was almost entirely due to a sharp increase in production in the US from shale formations, called light tight oil (LTO). World oil production minus this increase in US LTO Production has been flat since 2005 at about 74 mb/d. When US production starts to decline, world oil production likely will as well. That surge is forecast to end soon because LTO is expensive to produce, the first year decline rates are extremely high requiring many new wells each year to maintain or increase production and the most productive locations have already been drilled. It is unprofitable for the Exploration and Production (E&P) companies. Full-year free cash flow has been negative for most tight oil E&P companies since 2009. The total negative cash flow for the 19 largest E&P companies totaled 10.5B in 2014. The surge in US LTO production created an imbalance in global supply and demand and resulted in a 50% decrease in the price of oil. The tight-oil producers who were are financially marginal at an oil price greater than 90 per barrel are even more so at the lower price. As a result the surge in US production of LTO is declining, making it unlikely that world oil production will exceed the present value of about 28 Gb/yr (equivalent to 75 mb/d) (175 EJ/yr). Many of the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and RCP (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways) projections (especially RCP 8.5 and 6) require CO2 emissions due to oil consumption in the range of 32 Gb/yr to 57 Gb/yr (200 to 350 EJ/yr). The higher values would require a doubling of world oil production. It is highly uncertain whether the higher CO2 scenarios will be reached. This is an element of uncertainty missing from most considerations of future climate change.

Influence of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: outcomes of the Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Ball, Kylie; McNaughton, Sarah A; Le, Ha N D; Gold, Lisa; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Abbott, Gavin; Pollard, Christina; Crawford, David

2015-05-01

Fiscal strategies are increasingly considered upstream nutrition promotion measures. However, few trials have investigated the effectiveness or cost effectiveness of pricing manipulations on diet in real-world settings. We assessed the effects on fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchasing and consumption of a 20% price-reduction intervention, a tailored skills-based behavior-change intervention, and a combined intervention compared with a control condition. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was a randomized controlled trial conducted over 3 mo [baseline (time 1) to postintervention (time 2) with a 6-mo follow-up (time 3)]. Female primary household shoppers in Melbourne, Australia, were randomly assigned to a 1) skill-building (n = 160), 2) price-reduction (n = 161), 3) combined skill-building and price-reduction (n = 160), or 4) control (n = 161) group. Supermarket transaction data and surveys were used to measure the following study outcomes: fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchases and self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption at each time point. At 3 mo (time 2), price reduction-alone participants purchased more total vegetables and frozen vegetables than did controls. Price reduction-alone and price reduction-plus-skill-building participants purchased more fruit than did controls. Relative to controls, in the price-reduction group, total vegetable consumption increased by 233 g/wk (3.1 servings or 15% more than at baseline), and fruit purchases increased by 364 g/wk (2.4 servings; 35% more than at baseline). Increases were not maintained 6 mo postintervention (time 3). Price reduction-alone participants showed a tendency for a slight increase in fruit consumption at time 2 (P = 0.09) that was maintained at time 3 (P = 0.014). No intervention improved purchases of bottled water or low-calorie beverages. A 20% price reduction in fruit and vegetables resulted in increased purchasing per household of 35% for fruit and 15% for vegetables over the price-reduction period. These findings show that price modifications can directly increase produce purchases. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials Registration as ISRCTN39432901. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Determining optimal selling price and lot size with process reliability and partial backlogging considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Tsu-Pang; Cheng, Mei-Chuan; Dye, Chung-Yuan; Ouyang, Liang-Yuh

2011-01-01

In this article, we extend the classical economic production quantity (EPQ) model by proposing imperfect production processes and quality-dependent unit production cost. The demand rate is described by any convex decreasing function of the selling price. In addition, we allow for shortages and a time-proportional backlogging rate. For any given selling price, we first prove that the optimal production schedule not only exists but also is unique. Next, we show that the total profit per unit time is a concave function of price when the production schedule is given. We then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price and production schedule for the proposed model. Finally, we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm and conclude this article with suggestions for possible future research.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Cigarette Prices and Smoking Cessation in Older Smokers.

PubMed

Stevens, Victoria L; Diver, W Ryan; Stoklosa, Michal; Flanders, W Dana; Westmaas, J Lee; Jemal, Ahmedin; Drope, Jeffrey M; Gapstur, Susan M; Jacobs, Eric J

2017-07-01

Background: Cigarette price increases effectively prevent smoking initiation and reduce cigarette consumption among young smokers. However, the impact of cigarette prices on smoking cessation among older smokers is less clear, particularly for those aged 65 years and older, a group that is at highest risk of smoking-related disease and will almost double in the United States between 2012 and 2050. Methods: Biennial questionnaires administered between 1997 and 2013 assessed smoking status for 9,446 Cancer Prevention Study-II Nutrition Cohort participants who were ≥50 years old and lived in Washington, DC, and 48 states. For each interval between biennial questionnaires, change in price per pack and average price level per pack were calculated. The separate associations between these price variables and smoking cessation during the same time interval were determined. Results: In multivariable-adjusted models, each $1.00 price increase was associated with a 9% higher rate of quitting [rate ratio (RR) = 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.14). Each $1.00 increase in average price was associated with a 6% higher rate of quitting (RR = 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10). The association with average price was strongest among smokers aged 65 years and older (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11) and, for price change, for smokers with no major prevalent disease (RR = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07-1.19). Conclusions: These results suggest that increasing cigarette prices will promote quitting even among smokers aged 65 years and older. Impact: Increasing cigarette prices through higher taxes could reduce smoking rates among older adults and decrease risk of smoking-related cancers and diseases in this high-risk group. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(7); 1071-7. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Three studies of retail gasoline pricing dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, Benjamin James

In many Canadian cities, retail gasoline prices appear to cycle, rising by large amounts in one or two days followed by several days of small consecutive price decreases. While many empirical studies examine such markets, certain questions cannot b e properly answered without high frequency, station-specific price data for an entire market. Thus, the first paper in this thesis uses bi-hourly price data collected for 27 stations in Guelph, Ontario, eight tunes per day for 103 days to examine several basic predictions of the Edgeworth cycle theory. The results are largely consistent with this theory. However, most independent firms do not tend to undercut their rivals' prices, contrary to previous findings. Furthermore, the tuning, sizes and leaders of price increases appear to be very predictable, and a specific pattern of price movements has been detected on days when prices increase. These findings suggest that leading a price increase might not be as risky as one may expect. The second paper uses these same data to examine the implications o f an informal theory of competitive gasoline pricing, as advanced by industry and government. Consistent with this theory, stations do tend to set prices to match (or set a small positive or negative differential with) a small number of other stations, which are not necessarily the closest stations. Also, while retailers frequently respond to price changes within two hours, many take considerably longer to respond than is predicted by the theory. Finally, while price decreases do ripple across the market like falling dominos, increases appear to propagate based more on geographic location and source of price control than proximity to the leaders. The third paper uses both these data and Guelph price data collected every 12 hours during the same 103 days from OntarioGasPrices.com to examine the sample selection biases that might exist in such Internet price data, as well as their implications for empirical research. It is found that the Internet data tend to accurately identify features of cycles that can be distinguished using company-operated, major brand station prices, while features that require individual independent station data or very high frequency data might not be well-identified.

Future Approach to tier-0 extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; McCance, G.; Cordeiro, C.; Giordano, D.; Traylen, S.; Moreno García, D.

2017-10-01

The current tier-0 processing at CERN is done on two managed sites, the CERN computer centre and the Wigner computer centre. With the proliferation of public cloud resources at increasingly competitive prices, we have been investigating how to transparently increase our compute capacity to include these providers. The approach taken has been to integrate these resources using our existing deployment and computer management tools and to provide them in a way that exposes them to users as part of the same site. The paper will describe the architecture, the toolset and the current production experiences of this model.

48 CFR 15.407-1 - Defective certified cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... price adjustment, including profit or fee, of any significant amount by which the price was increased... the defective data increase or decrease the contract price. The contracting officer shall consider any... (e.g., material, direct labor, or indirect costs). (6) An offset shall not be allowed if— (i) The...

Effect of increasing the price of sugar-sweetened beverages on alcoholic beverage purchases: an economic analysis of sales data.

PubMed

Quirmbach, Diana; Cornelsen, Laura; Jebb, Susan A; Marteau, Theresa; Smith, Richard

2018-04-01

Taxing soft-drinks may reduce their purchase, but assessing the impact on health demands wider consideration on alternative beverage choices. Effects on alcoholic drinks are of particular concern, as many contain similar or greater amounts of sugar than soft-drinks and have additional health harms. Changes in consumption of alcoholic drinks may reinforce or negate the intended effect of price changes for soft-drinks. A partial demand model, adapted from the Almost Ideal Demand System, was applied to Kantar Worldpanel data from 31 919 households from January 2012 to December 2013, covering drink purchases for home consumption, providing ~6 million purchases aggregated into 11 groups, including three levels of soft-drink, three of other non-alcoholic drinks and five of alcoholic drinks. An increase in the price of high-sugar drinks leads to an increase in the purchase of lager, an increase in the price of medium-sugar drinks reduces purchases of alcoholic drinks, while an increase in the price of diet/low-sugar drinks increases purchases of beer, cider and wines. Overall, the effects of price rises are greatest in the low-income group. Increasing the price of soft-drinks may change purchase patterns for alcohol. Increasing the price of medium-sugar drinks has the potential to have a multiplier-effect beneficial to health through reducing alcohol purchases, with the converse for increases in the price of diet-drinks. Although the reasons for such associations cannot be explained from this analysis, requiring further study, the design of fiscal interventions should now consider these wider potential outcomes. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Effect of increasing the price of sugar-sweetened beverages on alcoholic beverage purchases: an economic analysis of sales data

PubMed Central

Quirmbach, Diana; Cornelsen, Laura; Jebb, Susan A; Marteau, Theresa; Smith, Richard

2018-01-01

Background Taxing soft-drinks may reduce their purchase, but assessing the impact on health demands wider consideration on alternative beverage choices. Effects on alcoholic drinks are of particular concern, as many contain similar or greater amounts of sugar than soft-drinks and have additional health harms. Changes in consumption of alcoholic drinks may reinforce or negate the intended effect of price changes for soft-drinks. Methods A partial demand model, adapted from the Almost Ideal Demand System, was applied to Kantar Worldpanel data from 31 919 households from January 2012 to December 2013, covering drink purchases for home consumption, providing ~6 million purchases aggregated into 11 groups, including three levels of soft-drink, three of other non-alcoholic drinks and five of alcoholic drinks. Results An increase in the price of high-sugar drinks leads to an increase in the purchase of lager, an increase in the price of medium-sugar drinks reduces purchases of alcoholic drinks, while an increase in the price of diet/low-sugar drinks increases purchases of beer, cider and wines. Overall, the effects of price rises are greatest in the low-income group. Conclusion Increasing the price of soft-drinks may change purchase patterns for alcohol. Increasing the price of medium-sugar drinks has the potential to have a multiplier-effect beneficial to health through reducing alcohol purchases, with the converse for increases in the price of diet-drinks. Although the reasons for such associations cannot be explained from this analysis, requiring further study, the design of fiscal interventions should now consider these wider potential outcomes. PMID:29363613

Energy and Economic Trade Offs for Advanced Technology Subsonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddalon, D. V.; Wagner, R. D.

1976-01-01

Changes in future aircraft technology which conserve energy are studied, along with the effect of these changes on economic performance. Among the new technologies considered are laminar-flow control, composite materials with and without laminar-flow control, and advanced airfoils. Aircraft design features studied include high-aspect-ratio wings, thickness ratio, and range. Engine technology is held constant at the JT9D level. It is concluded that wing aspect ratios of future aircraft are likely to significantly increase as a result of new technology and the push of higher fuel prices. Composite materials may raise aspect radio to about 11 to 12 and practical laminar flow-control systems may further increase aspect ratio to 14 or more. Advanced technology provides significant reductions in aircraft take-off gross weight, energy consumption, and direct operating cost.

Outlooks for Wind Power in the United States: Drivers and Trends under a 2016 Policy Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Lantz, Eric; Ho, Jonathan

Over the past decade, wind power has become one of the fastest growing electricity generation sources in the United States. Despite this growth, the U.S. wind industry continues to experience year-to-year fluctuations across the manufacturing and supply chain as a result of dynamic market conditions and changing policy landscapes. Moreover, with advancing wind technologies, ever-changing fossil fuel prices, and evolving energy policies, the long-term future for wind power is highly uncertain. In this report, we present multiple outlooks for wind power in the United States, to explore the possibilities of future wind deployment. The future wind power outlooks presented relymore » on high-resolution wind resource data and advanced electric sector modeling capabilities to evaluate an array of potential scenarios of the U.S. electricity system. Scenario analysis is used to explore drivers, trends, and implications for wind power deployment over multiple periods through 2050. Specifically, we model 16 scenarios of wind deployment in the contiguous United States. These scenarios span a wide range of wind technology costs, natural gas prices, and future transmission expansion. We identify conditions with more consistent wind deployment after the production tax credit expires as well as drivers for more robust wind growth in the long run. Conversely, we highlight challenges to future wind deployment. We find that the degree to which wind technology costs decline can play an important role in future wind deployment, electric sector CO 2 emissions, and lowering allowance prices for the Clean Power Plan.« less

Semiconductor Laser Diode Pumps for Inertial Fusion Energy Lasers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deri, R J

2011-01-03

Solid-state lasers have been demonstrated as attractive drivers for inertial confinement fusion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and at the Omega Facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) in Rochester, NY. For power plant applications, these lasers must be pumped by semiconductor diode lasers to achieve the required laser system efficiency, repetition rate, and lifetime. Inertial fusion energy (IFE) power plants will require approximately 40-to-80 GW of peak pump power, and must operate efficiently and with high system availability for decades. These considerations lead to requirements on the efficiency, price, and productionmore » capacity of the semiconductor pump sources. This document provides a brief summary of these requirements, and how they can be met by a natural evolution of the current semiconductor laser industry. The detailed technical requirements described in this document flow down from a laser ampl9ifier design described elsewhere. In brief, laser amplifiers comprising multiple Nd:glass gain slabs are face-pumped by two planar diode arrays, each delivering 30 to 40 MW of peak power at 872 nm during a {approx} 200 {micro}s quasi-CW (QCW) pulse with a repetition rate in the range of 10 to 20 Hz. The baseline design of the diode array employs a 2D mosaic of submodules to facilitate manufacturing. As a baseline, they envision that each submodule is an array of vertically stacked, 1 cm wide, edge-emitting diode bars, an industry standard form factor. These stacks are mounted on a common backplane providing cooling and current drive. Stacks are conductively cooled to the backplane, to minimize both diode package cost and the number of fluid interconnects for improved reliability. While the baseline assessment in this document is based on edge-emitting devices, the amplifier design does not preclude future use of surface emitting diodes, which may offer appreciable future cost reductions and increased reliability. The high-level requirements on the semiconductor lasers involve reliability, price points on a price-per-Watt basis, and a set of technical requirements. The technical requirements for the amplifier design in reference 1 are discussed in detail and are summarized in Table 1. These values are still subject to changes as the overall laser system continues to be optimized. Since pump costs can be a significant fraction of the overall laser system cost, it is important to achieve sufficiently low price points for these components. At this time, the price target for tenth-of-akind IFE plant is $0.007/Watt for packaged devices. At this target level, the pumps account for approximately one third of the laser cost. The pump lasers should last for the life of the power plant, leading to a target component lifetime requirement of roughly 14 Ghosts, corresponding to a 30 year plant life and 15 Hz repetition rate. An attractive path forward involes pump operation at high output power levels, on a Watts-per-bar (Watts/chip) basis. This reduces the cost of pump power (price-per-Watt), since to first order the unit price does not increase with power/bar. The industry has seen a continual improvement in power output, with current 1 cm-wide bars emitting up to 500 W QCW (quasi-continuous wave). Increased power/bar also facilitates achieving high irradiance in the array plane. On the other hand, increased power implies greater heat loads and (possibly) higher current drive, which will require increased attention to thermal management and parasitic series resistance. Diode chips containing multiple p-n junctions and quantum wells (also called nanostack structures) may provide an additional approach to reduce the peak current.« less

The choice of discount brand cigarettes: A comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Canada and the United States (2002–2005)

PubMed Central

Nargis, Nigar; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Li, Qiang

2014-01-01

Background Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This paper investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes vs. premium brands. Objective To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers’ choice of discount brands versus premium brands. Methods Using data from ITC Surveys in Canada and the United States, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socio-economic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model. Findings An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the United States. Conclusion The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the United States during 2002–2005, and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands—which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax—may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes. PMID:23986408

Hospital prices and market structure in the hospital and insurance industries.

PubMed

Moriya, Asako S; Vogt, William B; Gaynor, Martin

2010-10-01

There has been substantial consolidation among health insurers and hospitals, recently, raising questions about the effects of this consolidation on the exercise of market power. We analyze the relationship between insurer and hospital market concentration and the prices of hospital services. We use a national US dataset containing transaction prices for health care services for over 11 million privately insured Americans. Using three years of panel data, we estimate how insurer and hospital market concentration are related to hospital prices, while controlling for unobserved market effects. We find that increases in insurance market concentration are significantly associated with decreases in hospital prices, whereas increases in hospital concentration are non-significantly associated with increases in prices. A hypothetical merger between two of five equally sized insurers is estimated to decrease hospital prices by 6.7%.

Effect of the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm) on the availability, price, and market share of quality-assured artemisinin-based combination therapies in seven countries: a before-and-after analysis of outlet survey data.

PubMed

Tougher, Sarah; Ye, Yazoume; Amuasi, John H; Kourgueni, Idrissa A; Thomson, Rebecca; Goodman, Catherine; Mann, Andrea G; Ren, Ruilin; Willey, Barbara A; Adegoke, Catherine A; Amin, Abdinasir; Ansong, Daniel; Bruxvoort, Katia; Diallo, Diadier A; Diap, Graciela; Festo, Charles; Johanes, Boniface; Juma, Elizabeth; Kalolella, Admirabilis; Malam, Oumarou; Mberu, Blessing; Ndiaye, Salif; Nguah, Samuel B; Seydou, Moctar; Taylor, Mark; Rueda, Sergio Torres; Wamukoya, Marilyn; Arnold, Fred; Hanson, Kara

2012-12-01

Malaria is one of the greatest causes of mortality worldwide. Use of the most effective treatments for malaria remains inadequate for those in need, and there is concern over the emergence of resistance to these treatments. In 2010, the Global Fund launched the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm), a series of national-scale pilot programmes designed to increase the access and use of quality-assured artemisinin based combination therapies (QAACTs) and reduce that of artemisinin monotherapies for treatment of malaria. AMFm involves manufacturer price negotiations, subsidies on the manufacturer price of each treatment purchased, and supporting interventions such as communications campaigns. We present findings on the effect of AMFm on QAACT price, availability, and market share, 6-15 months after the delivery of subsidised ACTs in Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania (including Zanzibar). We did nationally representative baseline and endpoint surveys of public and private sector outlets that stock antimalarial treatments. QAACTs were identified on the basis of the Global Fund's quality assurance policy. Changes in availability, price, and market share were assessed against specified success benchmarks for 1 year of AMFm implementation. Key informant interviews and document reviews recorded contextual factors and the implementation process. In all pilots except Niger and Madagascar, there were large increases in QAACT availability (25·8-51·9 percentage points), and market share (15·9-40·3 percentage points), driven mainly by changes in the private for-profit sector. Large falls in median price for QAACTs per adult equivalent dose were seen in the private for-profit sector in six pilots, ranging from US$1·28 to $4·82. The market share of oral artemisinin monotherapies decreased in Nigeria and Zanzibar, the two pilots where it was more than 5% at baseline. Subsidies combined with supporting interventions can be effective in rapidly improving availability, price, and market share of QAACTs, particularly in the private for-profit sector. Decisions about the future of AMFm should also consider the effect on use in vulnerable populations, access to malaria diagnostics, and cost-effectiveness. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange to Grow the Lunar Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahan, B. B. C.

2017-10-01

This paper proposes to establish a Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange in order to define and trade essential commodities that, when traded on an open exchange, improve availability, quality, price discovery, financeability, and equal access.

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE PAGES

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; ...

2016-03-22

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

The economic dimensions of malnutrition in young children.

PubMed

Reutlinger, S; Selowsky, M

1979-06-01

1 billion people - 1/3 of them children under the age of 10 - live on diets that are deficient in essential calories. Focus in this discussion is on the magnitude of the problem. The economic implications of specific intervention programs designed to solve the problem are reviewed. Caloric intake is closely associated with per capita income, and malnutrition characterizes the poorest segments of the population. Since the lowest-income groups have larger families, the incidence of malnutrition among children is certain to be higher than the incidence among adults. 3 factors will determine whether, on the basis of current trends, caloric malnutrition can be expected to be eliminated among the poorest segments of the population of the development countries: 1) the future income growth of the malnourished groups; 2) their propensity to use additional income to increase their caloric consumption; and 3) the future changes in the relative price of the main staples, basically cereals. The problem of malnutrition cannot be resolved quickly enough without explicit measures to raise the level of caloric consumption. Governments can initiate a wide range of programs and policies in an effort to augment the caloric consumption of children in the target population - transfer of cash to target households, target group oriented food programs, and food stamps for certain groups. In order for a food program to have more of an effect on consumption than would an equivalent transfer of income, 2 conditions need to be met: 1) the food must be made available at lower prices and in larger quantities than that previously consumed; and 2) reselling of the food must be precluded. In sum, the only effective solution for dealing with the problem of malnutrition among children of developing countries is either a more equitable distribution of income or supplying the food to the target population at a price far below its normally supply price.

Per-pack price reductions available from different cigarette purchasing strategies: United States, 2009-2010.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Xu, Xin; Tynan, Michael A; Gerzoff, Robert B; Malarcher, Ann M; Pechacek, Terry F

2014-06-01

Following cigarette excise tax increases, smokers may use cigarette price minimization strategies to continue their usual cigarette consumption rather than reducing consumption or quitting. This reduces the public health benefits of the tax increase. This paper estimates the price reductions for a wide-range of strategies, compensating for overlapping strategies. We performed regression analysis on the 2009-2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey (N=13,394) to explore price reductions that smokers in the United States obtained from purchasing cigarettes. We examined five cigarette price minimization strategies: 1) purchasing discount brand cigarettes, 2) using price promotions, 3) purchasing cartons, 4) purchasing on Indian reservations, and 5) purchasing online. Price reductions from these strategies were estimated jointly to compensate for overlapping strategies. Each strategy provided price reductions between 26 and 99cents per pack. Combined price reductions were possible. Additionally, price promotions were used with regular brands to obtain larger price reductions than when price promotions were used with generic brands. Smokers can realize large price reductions from price minimization strategies, and there are many strategies available. Policymakers and public health officials should be aware of the extent that these strategies can reduce cigarette prices. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Optimal policies for simultaneous energy consumption and ancillary service provision for flexible loads under stochastic prices and no capacity reservation constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kefayati, Mahdi; Baldick, Ross

2015-07-01

Flexible loads, i.e. the loads whose power trajectory is not bound to a specific one, constitute a sizable portion of current and future electric demand. This flexibility can be used to improve the performance of the grid, should the right incentives be in place. In this paper, we consider the optimal decision making problem faced by a flexible load, demanding a certain amount of energy over its availability period, subject to rate constraints. The load is also capable of providing ancillary services (AS) by decreasing or increasing its consumption in response to signals from the independent system operator (ISO). Under arbitrarily distributed and correlated Markovian energy and AS prices, we obtain the optimal policy for minimising expected total cost, which includes cost of energy and benefits from AS provision, assuming no capacity reservation requirement for AS provision. We also prove that the optimal policy has a multi-threshold form and can be computed, stored and operated efficiently. We further study the effectiveness of our proposed optimal policy and its impact on the grid. We show that, while optimal simultaneous consumption and AS provision under real-time stochastic prices are achievable with acceptable computational burden, the impact of adopting such real-time pricing schemes on the network might not be as good as suggested by the majority of the existing literature. In fact, we show that such price responsive loads are likely to induce peak-to-average ratios much more than what is observed in the current distribution networks and adversely affect the grid.

Changes in Pricing Behavior during the 1980s: An Analysis of Selected Case Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. John, Edward P.

1992-01-01

Reports on changes in pricing decisions at public and private colleges in a low-cost and a high-cost state in the 1980s. Five liberal arts colleges studied used several pricing strategies: "elite" pricing strategy; "prestige" pricing strategy; and price reduction strategy. Study found multiple causes for price increases, more sophisticated pricing…

Regional Hospital Input Price Indexes

PubMed Central

Freeland, Mark S.; Schendler, Carol Ellen; Anderson, Gerard

1981-01-01

This paper describes the development of regional hospital input price indexes that is consistent with the general methodology used for the National Hospital Input Price Index. The feasibility of developing regional indexes was investigated because individuals inquired whether different regions experienced different rates of increase in hospital input prices. The regional indexes incorporate variations in cost-share weights (the amount an expense category contributes to total spending) associated with hospital type and location, and variations in the rate of input price increases for various regions. We found that between 1972 and 1979 none of the regional price indexes increased at average annual rates significantly different from the national rate. For the more recent period 1977 through 1979, the increase in one Census Region was significantly below the national rate. Further analyses indicated that variations in cost-share weights for various types of hospitals produced no substantial variations in the regional price indexes relative to the national index. We consider these findings preliminary because of limitations in the availability of current, relevant, and reliable data, especially for local area wage rate increases. PMID:10309557

Are lower income smokers more price sensitive?: the evidence from Korean cigarette tax increases.

PubMed

Choi, Seng Eun

2016-03-01

The cigarette excise taxes and the price of a typical pack of cigarettes in Korea have not increased since 2005, and effective tax rate as a fraction of price and real price of cigarettes have both been falling. As smoking prevalence is higher among lower income people than among higher income people in Korea, the regressivity of cigarette excise taxes is often cited as a barrier to tobacco tax and price policy. While studies in several other high-income countries have shown that higher income individuals are less price sensitive, few studies have examined the differential impact of cigarette tax increases by income group in Korea. Most of the Korean literature has estimated the demand for cigarettes using time-series aggregate sales data or household level survey data, which record household cigarette expenditures rather than individual cigarette consumption. Studies using survey data often lack time-series variation and estimate cigarette demand using household expenditure data, while studies using time-series aggregate sales data lack cross-sectional variation. I examine differences in the effects of cigarette price on the cigarette consumption of various income groups using individual-level cigarette consumption records from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KHNNES). I also analyse the implications of cigarette taxes and price increases on the relative tax burdens of different income groups. I use pooled data from the KNHNES for the 1998-2011 period to estimate the price elasticity of cigarette consumption of four income groups. Treating cigarette consumption as a latent variable, I employ an econometric procedure that corrects for non-random sample selection, or the fact that some non-smokers might have smoked at a low enough price, and estimate the price elasticity of cigarette consumption by income group. The estimated price elasticities include the responsiveness of potential smokers as well as current smokers. Lower income Korean smokers are more responsive to changes in the price of cigarettes. While the overall price elasticity of cigarettes is estimated to be -0.425, the price elasticity of the lowest income quartile is estimated to be -0.812, whereas that of the highest income quartile is estimated to be -0.325. The estimated price elasticities of different income groups imply that the cigarette tax and price increases in Korea would reduce smoking more in those with lower incomes. For a given price increase, the percentage reduction in cigarette consumption among smokers in the lowest income quartile is 2.5 times greater than among smokers in the top income quartile. The simulated tax burdens of different income groups show that the additional burden of a tax increase and the associated price rise is largely borne by higher income smokers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Dual pricing of health sciences periodicals: a survey.

PubMed Central

Miller, D R; Jensen, J E

1980-01-01

A survey of dual pricing practices among publishers of health-related journals identified 281 periodicals with an average price differential of over 100% between individual and institutional subscription rates. Both the practice itself and the amount of the differential are increasing, indicating that journal subscriptions of health sciences libraries increasingly provide the financial support necessary for the publication of health sciences journals. Dual pricing is also correlated with copyright royalties. The problems that dual pricing creates for health sciences libraries' budgets are due in part to uncritical purchasing by libraries. Increased consumerism on the part of health science librarians is recommended. PMID:7437588

77 FR 58600 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... approving expansion of STO Program)[sic]. \\9\\ These include, without limitation, options, equities, futures... hedging strategies across various investment platforms (e.g. equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures... Web site, strike prices for options on futures may be at an interval of $.05, $.10, and $.25 per...

76 FR 50276 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; OneChicago, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-12

... for Four Decimal Point Pricing for Block and Exchange for Physical (``EFPs'') Trades August 8, 2011... block trades and the futures component of EFP trades to be traded/priced in four decimals points. Regular trades (non-block or non EFP) will continue to trade in only two decimal points. The text of the...

75 FR 170 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change for the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-04

... Bloomberg. Reuters and Bloomberg provide at no charge on their Web sites delayed information regarding the spot price of gold and last sale prices of gold futures, as well as information about news and developments in the gold market. Reuters and Bloomberg also offer a professional service to subscribers for a...

Achievements in the utilzation of poplar wood : guideposts for the future : [abstract

Treesearch

John J. Balatinecz; Andre Leclercq; David E. Kretschmann

2000-01-01

Poplar wood is suitable and is utilized for a broad range of forest products worldwide. The utilization of any species is governed by a number of factors, such as basic wood properties, overall quality, quantity and price of the resource, available processing technologies, local as well as international market conditions for the products, and the availability and price...

"I'm Glad I Was Designed": Un/Doing Gender and Class in Susan Price's "Odin Trilogy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lehtonen, Sanna

2012-01-01

Susan Price's "Odin Trilogy" (2005-2008) is a juvenile science fiction series that depicts a future where class relations have become polarised due to late capitalist and technological developments and where ways of doing gender continue to be strongly connected with class. The society in the novels is based on slavery: people are either…

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

The effect of methamphetamine and heroin price on polydrug use: A behavioural economics analysis in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Chalmers, Jenny; Bradford, Deborah; Jones, Craig

2010-09-01

A key aim of supply-side drug law enforcement is to reduce drug use by increasing the retail price of drugs. Since most illicit drug users are polydrug users the effectiveness of this strategy depends on the extent to which drug users reduce their overall consumption of drugs. The literature shows that drug users do reduce their consumption of a drug when its price increases. However the extent of that decrease and the implications for the use of other drugs vary across studies. A sample of 101 Australian methamphetamine users was surveyed using a behavioural economics approach. Participants were given a hypothetical fixed drug budget, presented with a range of drug price lists and asked how many units of each drug they would purchase. Methamphetamine and heroin prices were varied independently across trials. While demand for both methamphetamine and heroin was found to be price elastic, elasticity estimates were influenced by the nature of participants' drug dependence. The group least responsive to changes in methamphetamine price were those dependent only on methamphetamine, while the group most responsive were dependent only on heroin. Similar findings emerged in relation to changes in heroin price. Cross-price elasticity analysis showed limited substitution into other drugs as the price of methamphetamine increased. In contrast, for heroin, there was significant substitution into pharmaceutical opioids and to a lesser extent, benzodiazepines and methamphetamine. However, for the most part, the decreases in methamphetamine or heroin consumption outweighed any substitution into other drugs. The reduction in overall drug consumption and expenditure in response to price increases in heroin and methamphetamine observed in this sample lend support to supply-side enforcement strategies that aim to increase retail drug price. Notably, this analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the nature of users' drug dependence in estimating price responsiveness. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

College Textbooks Enhanced Offerings Appear to Drive Recent Price Increases. GAO-05-806

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Government Accountability Office, 2005

2005-01-01

In the last two decades, college textbook prices have increased at twice the rate of inflation but have followed close behind tuition increases. Increasing at an average of 6 percent per year, textbook prices nearly tripled from December 1986 to December 2004, while tuition and fees increased by 240 percent and overall inflation was 72…

The world outlook for conventional agriculture. More emphasis is needed on farm price policy and plant research if future world food needs are to be met.

PubMed

Brown, L R

1967-11-03

1) The worldwide demand for food will continue to be strong in the coming decades. Two forces-rapidly growing population and, in much of the world, rapidly rising incomes-are expected to result in increases in the demand for food even more rapid than those that have occurred during the past. 2) Conventional agriculture has assured an adequate food supply for the economically advanced one-third of the world. The challenge now is to assure an adequate food supply for the remaining two-thirds, where population is now increasing at the rate of 1 million people per week and where malnutrition is already widespread. 3) Economically feasible prospects for significantly expanding the world's area of cultivated land in the 1960's and 1970's are limited and largely confined to sub-Saharan Africa and the Amazon Basin. Even here, agronomic problems will limit the rate of expansion. When the cost of desalting seawater is substantially reduced-probably not before the late 1970's or early 1980's at best-it may become feasible to irrigate large areas of desert. 4) Given the limited possibilities for expanding the area of land under cultivation, most of the increases in world food needs must be met, for the foreseeable future, by raising the productivity of land already under cultivation. Food output per acre, rather static throughout most of history, has begun to increase rapidly in some of the more advanced countries in recent decades. All of the increases in food production over the past quarter century in North America, western Europe, and Japan have come from increasing the productivity of land already under cultivation. The area under cultivation has actually declined. 5) Achieving dramatic gains in land productivity requires a massive investment of capital and the widespread adoption of new technology. A similar effort must now be made in the less-developed nations if these nations are to feed their people. The most important single factor influencing this rate of investment is food prices, more particularly the relationship between the price farmers receive for their food products and the cost of modern inputs such as fertilizer. 6) In some of the more-developed countries where per-acre yields have been rising for a long time, there is now evidence that the rate of yield increase may be slowing. Nonrecurring inputs may have made their maximum contribution to output in the case of some crops, pushing yield levels past the middle of the S-shaped logistic curve. Although this cannot be determined with any certainty, the possibility that the middle of the curve has been passed in some instances should be taken into account in viewing the long-term future. 7) If the rate of increase in yield per acre does in fact begin to slow in some of the agriculturally advanced countries, additional pressure will be put on the less-developed countries-which have much of the world's unrealized food-production potential-to meet the continuing future increases in world food needs. 8) Man has not yet been able to bypass the process of photosynthesis in the production of food. This dependence on photosynthesis plays a significant role in determining the upper levels of the S-shaped yield curve. Additional research is urgently needed to increase the photosynthetic efficiency of crops and to raise the upper levels of economically feasible yields.

Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1988

Treesearch

John S. Vissage

1990-01-01

In 1988, the average price per cord of Midsouth roundwood pulpwood was $49.21, an increase of approximately 4 percent since 1987. The average price per green ton of chipped residues fell 3 percent to $20.99. The total expenditure by Midsouth pulpmills for pulpwood increased about one-half percent to $1,569 million in 1988. However, the real prices, in terms of...

Keeping the Future Bright: Department of Defense (DOD) Sustainable Energy Strategy for Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-04

solar photovoltaic ( PV ) energy from a novelty to a mainstream energy source represents another one of the biggest clean energy stories of the past...still slightly more expensive to install than utility-scale PV , distributed solar installation costs decreased in half since 2008, and this power source...capacity will increase in the coming years (See Figure 3)6 Figure 3: Solar PV (Utility Scale) Utility-Scale Median Sy5tem Price —12 10 6 Ibid. Ibid. 9 up

Price Determination of General Aviation, Helicopter, and Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1978-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for general aviation, helicopter, and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly as to how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

Price-Weight Relationships of General Aviation, Helicopters, Transport Aircraft and Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1981-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's cost to manufacture, economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for sailplanes, general aviation, agriculture, helicopter, business and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

Deep drilling continues, though records don't show it

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1989-02-01

This article discusses how, although current prices may not appear to merit the expense of drilling for deep gas today, operators are looking beyond the immediate future. Faith in the future of deep gas drillers onward. Current prices may not justify it, but there is still a great deal of interest in the really deep plays. Technically, there was only one drilling record in 1988. The E.L. Spence Trust 1, in Missouri's Reelfoot Rift region of the Mississippi embayment, was drilled to the Lamotte formation at 10,089 ft. This well surpassed the old record of 4,906 ft set back inmore » 1966.« less

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Left-digit price effects on smoking cessation motivation.

PubMed

MacKillop, James; Amlung, Michael T; Blackburn, Ashley; Murphy, James G; Carrigan, Maureen; Carpenter, Matthew J; Chaloupka, Frank

2014-11-01

Cigarette price increases have been associated with increases in smoking cessation, but relatively little is known about this relationship at the level of individual smokers. To address this and to inform tax policy, the goal of this study was to apply a behavioural economic approach to the relationship between the price of cigarettes and the probability of attempting smoking cessation. Adult daily smokers (n=1074; ie, 5+ cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ≥8th grade education) completed in-person descriptive survey assessments. Assessments included estimated probability of making a smoking cessation attempt across a range of cigarette prices, demographics and nicotine dependence. As price increases, probability of making a smoking cessation attempt exhibited an orderly increase, with the form of the relationship being similar to an inverted demand curve. The largest effect size increases in motivation to make a quit attempt were in the form of 'left-digit effects,' (ie, maximal sensitivity across pack price whole-number changes; eg, US$5.80-6/pack). Significant differences were also observed among the left-digit effects, suggesting the most substantial effects were for price changes that were most market relevant. Severity of nicotine dependence was significantly associated with price sensitivity, but not for all indices. These data reveal the clear and robust relationship between the price of cigarettes and an individual's motivation to attempt smoking cessation. Furthermore, the current study indicates the importance of left-digit price transitions in this relationship, suggesting policymakers should consider relative price positions in the context of tax changes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Effect of price changes in little cigars and cigarettes on little cigar sales: USA, Q4 2011–Q4 2013

PubMed Central

Gammon, Doris G; Loomis, Brett R; Dench, Daniel L; King, Brian A; Fulmer, Erika B; Rogers, Todd

2016-01-01

Introduction Little cigars are comparable to cigarettes in terms of shape, size, filters and packaging. Disproportionate tobacco excise taxes, which directly affect purchase price, may lead consumers to substitute cigarettes with less expensive little cigars. This study estimated the effects of little cigar and cigarette prices on little cigar sales. Methods Sales data from a customised retail scanner database were used to model a log–log equation to infer own-price and cross-price elasticity of demand for little cigars relative to little cigar and cigarette prices, respectively, from quarter 4 of 2011 to quarter 4 of 2013. Data were available for convenience stores (C-stores) (n=29 states); food, drug and mass merchandisers (FDMs) (n=44 states); and C-stores and FDMs combined (n=27 states). The dependent variable was per capita little cigar pack sales, and key independent variables were the price index for little cigars and cigarettes. Results A 10% increase in little cigar price was associated with a 25% (p<0.01) decrease in little cigar sales in C-stores alone, and a 31.7% (p<0.01) decrease in C-stores and FDMs combined. A 10% increase in cigarette price was associated with a 21.5% (p<0.05) increase in little cigar sales in C-stores, and a 27.3% (p<0.01) increase in C-stores and FDMs combined. Conclusions Our results suggest that US cigarette smokers are avoiding the high cost of cigarettes by switching to lower priced little cigars. Increasing and equalising prices among comparable products, like cigarettes and little cigars, may motivate cost-conscious smokers to quit. PMID:26357952

Frozen fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, L.N.

1979-01-01

The use of LNG as a major energy source is opposed on a number of grounds: (1) too much can go wrong with an LNG facility that can cause an accident, (2) a major LNG accident could kill hundreds of thousands of people, (3) safety research on LNG is grossly inadequate, (4) the need for LNG has not yet been proven, (5) LNG will increase the US's dependence on insecure or even hostile foreign sources, and (6) LNG costs too much. Gas companies are gambling that LNG is safe, plentiful, and politically reliable and that they can keep prices downmore » to acceptable levels. If they are right, the importing nations will benefit from a valuable new source of energy. But if they are wrong, the gas consumers and the people living near LNG tanks and terminals have the most to lose: soaring prices and future disruptions from supply cutoffs on the one hand and unimaginable destruction on the other.« less

Hybrid Vehicle Technologies and their potential for reducing oil use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

German, John

2006-04-01

Vehicles with hybrid gasoline-electric powertrains are starting to gain market share. Current hybrid vehicles add an electric motor, battery pack, and power electronics to the conventional powertrain. A variety of engine/motor configurations are possible, each with advantages and disadvantages. In general, efficiency is improved due to engine shut-off at idle, capture of energy during deceleration that is normally lost as heat in the brakes, downsizing of the conventional engine, and, in some cases, propulsion on the electric motor alone. Ongoing increases in hybrid market share are dependent on cost reduction, especially the battery pack, efficiency synergies with other vehicle technologies, use of the high electric power to provide features desired by customers, and future fuel price and availability. Potential barriers include historically low fuel prices, high discounting of the fuel savings by new vehicle purchasers, competing technologies, and tradeoffs with other factors desired by customers, such as performance, utility, safety, and luxury features.

Identifying the Bottom Line after a Stock Market Crash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roehner, B. M.

In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical measure for the disparity in lenders' opinions about the future; in other words, it provides an operational definition of the uncertainty faced by economic agents. The observation that there is a strong negative correlation between stock prices and the spread variable relies on the examination of eight major crashes in the United States between 1857 and 1987. That relationship which has remained valid for one and a half century in spite of important changes in the organization of financial markets can be of interest in the perspective of Monte Carlo simulations of stock markets.

Self-reported price of cigarettes, consumption and compensatory behaviours in a cohort of Mexican smokers before and after a cigarette tax increase.

PubMed

Saenz-de-Miera, Belen; Thrasher, James F; Chaloupka, Frank J; Waters, Hugh R; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Fong, Geoffrey T

2010-12-01

To assess the impact of a 2007 cigarette tax increase from 110% to 140% of the price to the retailer on cigarette price and consumption among Mexican smokers, including efforts to offset price increases. Data were analysed from the 2006 and 2007 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Survey in Mexico, which is a population-based cohort of adult smokers. Self-reported price of last cigarette purchase, place of last purchase, preferred brand, daily consumption and quit behaviour were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Self-reported cigarette prices increased by 12.7% after the tax increase, with prices for international brands increasing more than for national brands (13.5% vs 8.7%, respectively). Although the tax increases were not fully passed onto consumers particularly on national brands, no evidence was found for smokers changing behaviour to offset price increases. Consistent declines in consumption across groups defined by sociodemographic and smoking-related psychosocial variables suggest a relatively uniform impact of the tax increase across subpopulations. However, decreased consumption appeared limited to people who smoked relatively more cigarettes a day (>5 cigarettes/day). Average daily consumption among lighter smokers did not significantly decline. A total of 13% (n=98) of the sample reported being quit for a month or more at follow-up. In multivariate models, lighter smokers were more likely than heavier smokers to be quit. Results suggest that the 2007 tax increase was passed on to consumers, whose consumption generally declined. Since no other tobacco control policies or programmes were implemented during the period analysed, the tax increase appears likely to have decreased consumption.

Self-reported price of cigarettes, consumption and compensatory behaviours in a cohort of Mexican smokers before and after a cigarette tax increase

PubMed Central

Saenz-de-Miera, Belen; Chaloupka, Frank J; Waters, Hugh R; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Fong, Geoffrey T

2010-01-01

Objective To assess the impact of a 2007 cigarette tax increase from 110% to 140% of the price to the retailer on cigarette price and consumption among Mexican smokers, including efforts to offset price increases. Methods Data were analysed from the 2006 and 2007 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Survey in Mexico, which is a population-based cohort of adult smokers. Self-reported price of last cigarette purchase, place of last purchase, preferred brand, daily consumption and quit behaviour were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Results Self-reported cigarette prices increased by 12.7% after the tax increase, with prices for international brands increasing more than for national brands (13.5% vs 8.7%, respectively). Although the tax increases were not fully passed onto consumers particularly on national brands, no evidence was found for smokers changing behaviour to offset price increases. Consistent declines in consumption across groups defined by sociodemographic and smoking-related psychosocial variables suggest a relatively uniform impact of the tax increase across subpopulations. However, decreased consumption appeared limited to people who smoked relatively more cigarettes a day (>5 cigarettes/day). Average daily consumption among lighter smokers did not significantly decline. A total of 13% (n=98) of the sample reported being quit for a month or more at follow-up. In multivariate models, lighter smokers were more likely than heavier smokers to be quit. Conclusions Results suggest that the 2007 tax increase was passed on to consumers, whose consumption generally declined. Since no other tobacco control policies or programmes were implemented during the period analysed, the tax increase appears likely to have decreased consumption. PMID:20870740

Environmental Response Laboratory Network (ERLN) Basic Ordering Agreement Example

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A BOA is a written instrument of understanding between EPA and a laboratory that contains terms and clauses applying to all future orders, a description of services to be provided, and methods for pricing, issuing, and delivering future orders.

Economic study of future aircraft fuels (1970-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1972-01-01

Future aircraft fuels are evaluated in terms of fuel resource availability and pricing, processing methods, and economic projections over the period 1970-2000. Liquefied hydrogen, methane and propane are examined as potential turbine engine aircraft fuels relative to current JP fuel.