The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

2018-01-01

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

Future Directions for Transit Pricing : Proceedings of the September 1980 Conference on Transit Pricing Innovations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

The purpose of the conference was to provide practical guidance to policy makers and transit operators on improved pricing policies and strategies. Topics covered include: trends and policies in future transit pricing; conventional and paratransit in...

Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices, An

EIA Publications

2005-01-01

This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three most recent winters with futures prices as they evolve from April through the following February, when trading for the March contract ends.

The Multi-Frequency Correlation Between Eua and sCER Futures Prices: Evidence from the Emd Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue-Jun; Huang, Yi-Song

2015-05-01

Currently European Union Allowances (EUA) and secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) have become two dominant carbon trading assets for investors and their linkage attracts much attention from academia and practitioners in recent years. Under this circumstance, we use the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach to decompose the two carbon futures contract prices and discuss their correlation from the multi-frequency perspective. The empirical results indicate that, first, the EUA and sCER futures price movements can be divided into those triggered by the long-term, medium-term and short-term market impacts. Second, the price movements in the EUA and sCER futures markets are primarily caused by the long-term impact, while the short-term impact can only explain a small fraction. Finally, the long-term (short-term) effect on EUA prices is statistically uncorrelated with the short-term (long-term) effect of sCER prices, and there is a medium or strong lead-and-lag correlation between the EUA and sCER price components with the same time scales. These results may provide some important insights of price forecast and arbitraging activities for carbon futures market investors, analysts and regulators.

Oil prices and long-run risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seel, Joachim; Mills, Andrew D.; Wiser, Ryan H.

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating themore » impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.« less

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about themore » suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.« less

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.; Milligan, Michael; Brinkman, Greg

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about themore » suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.« less

Self-consistency in Capital Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benbrahim, Hamid

2013-03-01

Capital Markets are considered, at least in theory, information engines whereby traders contribute to price formation with their diverse perspectives. Regardless whether one believes in efficient market theory on not, actions by individual traders influence prices of securities, which in turn influence actions by other traders. This influence is exerted through a number of mechanisms including portfolio balancing, margin maintenance, trend following, and sentiment. As a result market behaviors emerge from a number of mechanisms ranging from self-consistency due to wisdom of the crowds and self-fulfilling prophecies, to more chaotic behavior resulting from dynamics similar to the three body system, namely the interplay between equities, options, and futures. This talk will address questions and findings regarding the search for self-consistency in capital markets.

Alpine hydropower in a low carbon economy: Assessing the local implication of global policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

In the global transition towards a more efficient and low-carbon economy, renewable energy plays a major role in displacing fossil fuels, meeting global energy demand while reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In Europe, Variable Renewable Sources (VRS), such as wind and solar power sources, are becoming a relevant share of the generation portfolios in many countries. Beside the indisputable social and environmental advantages of VRS, on the short medium term the VRS-induced lowering energy prices and increasing price's volatility might challenge traditional power sources and, among them, hydropower production, because of smaller incomes and higher maintenance costs associated to a more flexible operation of power systems. In this study, we focus on the Swiss hydropower sector analysing how different low-carbon targets and strategies established at the Swiss and European level might affect energy price formation and thus impact - through hydropower operation - water availability and ecosystems services at the catchment scale. We combine a hydrological model to simulate future water availability and an electricity market model to simulate future evolution of energy prices based on official Swiss and European energy roadmaps and CO2 price trends in the European Union. We use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design alternative hydropower reservoir operation strategies, aiming to maximise the hydropower companies' income or to provide reliable energy supply with respect to the energy demand. This integrated model allows analysing to which extent global low-carbon policies impact reservoir operation at the local scale, and to gain insight on how to prioritise compensation measures and/or adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of VRS on hydropower companies in increasingly water constrained settings. Numerical results are shown for a real-world case study in the Swiss Alps.

Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2015-12-01

In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003more » and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.« less

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Periodicals Price Survey 2002: Doing the Digital Flip.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Orsdel, Lee; Born, Kathleen

2002-01-01

Presents the annual periodicals price study. Highlights include average prices; cost histories; cost projections for future budgeting; electronic journal issues; flip pricing, defined as online access at the core of pricing negotiations; various pricing models; purchasing print at deeply discounted prices; and current trends in pricing and in the…

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

2007-01-01

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

2011-01-01

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

48 CFR 12.207 - Contract type.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... contracts or fixed-price contracts with economic price adjustment for the acquisition of commercial items... fixed-price with economic price adjustment contracts (e.g., by limiting the value or length of the time... maximize the use of firm-fixed-price or fixed-price with economic price adjustment contracts on future...

Evidence of infinite and finite jump processes in commodity futures prices: Crude oil and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Wenbin; Guernsey, Scott B.; Linn, Scott C.

2018-07-01

We examine the frequency and character of price jumps in front month oil and natural gas futures prices. Prices are sampled every five seconds over the period 2006-2014. Our test results indicate that jumps in crude oil and natural gas futures prices can be decomposed into an infinite activity jump diffusion process and a less frequent but larger jump process. We also find that we cannot reject the hypothesis that Brownian motion is also present in both return series. The results are based on a battery of tests that are "model free". We further find that jumps account for respectively 36 and 41 percent of the realized variances of the crude oil and the natural gas returns.

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no consensus has been reached on OPEC strategic behavior. In the third chapter, we are interested in the effects of supply-side market power on oil price dynamics in face of different demand shocks, and model the oil market as composed of a strategic dominant firm and several competitive fringe producers. In each period, the dominant firm makes decision while taking fringe's response into consideration. We consider two alternative pricing strategies for the dominant firm. Our results show that this dynamic strategic model improves the potential of dominant firm-competitive fringe model in fitting and explaining real world data. A regime switch after a permanent demand increase generates a time path for price that looks like the price movements in the recent years.

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An equation of state for the financial markets: connecting order flow to price formation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerig, Austin; Mike, Szabolcs; Doyne Farmer, J.

2006-03-01

Many of the peculiarities of price formation in the financial marketplace can be understood as the result of a few regularities in the placement and removal of trading orders. Based on a large data set from the London Stock Exchange we show that the distribution of prices where people place orders to buy or sell follows a surprisingly simple functional form that depends on the current best prices. In addition, whether or not an order is to buy or sell is described by a long-memory process, and the cancellation of orders can be described by a few simple rules. When these results are combined, simply by following the rules of the continuous double auction, the resulting simulation model produces good predictions for the distribution of price changes and transaction costs without any adjustment of parameters. We use the model to empirically derive equations of state relating order flow and the statistical properties of prices. In contrast to previous conjectures, our results demonstrate that these distributions are not universal, but rather depend on parameters of individual markets. They also show that factors other than supply and demand play an important role in price formation.

Equilibrium pricing in an order book environment: Case study for a spin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meudt, Frederik; Schmitt, Thilo A.; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

2016-07-01

When modeling stock market dynamics, the price formation is often based on an equilibrium mechanism. In real stock exchanges, however, the price formation is governed by the order book. It is thus interesting to check if the resulting stylized facts of a model with equilibrium pricing change, remain the same or, more generally, are compatible with the order book environment. We tackle this issue in the framework of a case study by embedding the Bornholdt-Kaizoji-Fujiwara spin model into the order book dynamics. To this end, we use a recently developed agent based model that realistically incorporates the order book. We find realistic stylized facts. We conclude for the studied case that equilibrium pricing is not needed and that the corresponding assumption of a ;fundamental; price may be abandoned.

Generalization of Faustmann's Formula for Stochastic Forest Growth and Prices with Markov Decision Process Models

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2001-01-01

Faustmann's formula gives the land value, or the forest value of land with trees, under deterministic assumptions regarding future stand growth and prices, over an infinite horizon. Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's approach by recognizing that future stand states and prices are known only as probabilistic distributions. The...

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

2008-09-15

For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas-fired units account for nearly 90% of the total generating capacity added in the U.S. between 1999 and 2005 (EIA 2006b), bringing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation to 19%. Looking ahead over the next decade, the EIA expects this trend to continue, increasing the market share of gas-fired generation to 22% by 2015 (EIA 2007a). Though these numbers are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is makingmore » similar advances in many other countries as well. A large percentage of the total cost of gas-fired generation is attributable to fuel costs--i.e., natural gas prices. For example, at current spot prices of around $7/MMBtu, fuel costs account for more than 75% of the levelized cost of energy from a new combined cycle gas turbine, and more than 90% of its operating costs (EIA 2007a). Furthermore, given that gas-fired plants are often the marginal supply units that set the market-clearing price for all generators in a competitive wholesale market, there is a direct link between natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, the dramatic increase in natural gas prices since the 1990s should be a cause for ratepayer concern. Figure 1 shows the daily price history of the 'first-nearby' (i.e., closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas futures contract (black line) at Henry Hub, along with the futures strip (i.e., the full series of futures contracts) from August 22, 2007 (red line). First, nearby prices, which closely track spot prices, have recently been trading within a $7-9/MMBtu range in the United States and, as shown by the futures strip, are expected to remain there through 2012. These price levels are $6/MMBtu higher than the $1-3/MMBtu range seen throughout most of the 1990s, demonstrating significant price escalation for natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy (relative to conventional fuels), we do seek to quantify the magnitude of these two individual benefits. We also note that these benefits are not unique to renewable electricity: other generation (or demand-side) resources whose costs are not tied to natural gas would provide similar benefits.« less

Online 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Morris

This paper examines the co-existence of online and CD-ROM technologies in terms of their existing pricing structures, marketing strategies, functionality, and future roles. "Fixed Price Unlimited Usage" (FPUU) pricing and flat-rate pricing are discussed as viable alternatives to current pricing practices. In addition, it is argued that the…

Tradeoffs between Price and Quality: How a Value Index Affects Preference Formation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creyer, Elizabeth H.; Ross, William T., Jr.

1997-01-01

Some of a group of 143 consumers were given a choice between higher-priced, higher-quality items and items with lower price and quality but higher value index (benefit/cost tradeoff); others were given price and quality information only. Consumers were more likely to choose lower-priced, higher-value options when the index information was…

77 FR 38699 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-28

... Change Relating to Technical and Conforming Amendments to the Pricing Schedule June 22, 2012. Pursuant to... amendments to the Pricing Schedule to format pricing the same throughout the Pricing Schedule, correct a... Proposed Rule Change 1. Purpose The Exchange proposes to make clarifying amendments to the Pricing Schedule...

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement April 2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Differential subjective responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase among South Korean youth smokers.

PubMed

Do, Young Kyung; Farooqui, Muhammad Assad

2012-02-01

While higher sensitivity to tobacco price increases among younger smokers as a group has been well recognized, little information is available on heterogeneity among youth smokers. This study examined differential responsiveness to an unspecified future cigarette price increase by smoking rate. This study used a subsample of 6,187 current youth smokers derived from the 2007 Korea Youth Health Survey, an annually repeated cross-sectional survey designed to monitor adolescent health behaviors in a large nationally representative sample of middle-school and high-school students in South Korea (N = 74,698). A generalized ordered logit model was estimated to examine independent associations of self-reported responses to an unspecified future cigarette price increase with smoking rate and time since smoking initiation, after controlling for other individual and family characteristics. Higher smoking rates and longer time since smoking initiation were associated with a greater likelihood to continue smoking despite a future cigarette price increase. When these two factors were accounted for in the model, other individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Among youth smokers in South Korea, higher smoking rates were associated with lower self-reported responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase. Tobacco tax increases help prevent youth smokers from progressing to advanced stages of smoking, while certain subgroups of youth smokers, especially with nicotine dependence, may still need other effective cessation interventions.

Planning and development of the Better Bites program: a pricing manipulation strategy to improve healthy eating in a hospital cafeteria.

PubMed

Liebert, Mina L; Patsch, Amy J; Smith, Jennifer Howard; Behrens, Timothy K; Charles, Tami; Bailey, Taryn R

2013-07-01

The Better Bites program, a hospital cafeteria nutrition intervention strategy, was developed by combining evidence-based practices with hospital-specific formative research, including key informant interviews, the Nutrition Environment Measures Study in Restaurants, hospital employee surveys, and nutrition services staff surveys. The primary program components are pricing manipulation and marketing to promote delicious, affordable, and healthy foods to hospital employees and other cafeteria patrons. The pricing manipulation component includes decreasing the price of the healthy items and increasing the price of the unhealthy items using a 35% price differential. Point-of-purchase marketing highlights taste, cost, and health benefits of the healthy items. The program aims to increase purchases of healthy foods and decrease purchases of unhealthy foods, while maintaining revenue neutrality. This article addresses the formative research, planning, and development that informed the Better Bites program.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing.

PubMed

Moreno, Santiago G; Ray, Joshua A

2016-01-01

The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the 'value of innovation' reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing

PubMed Central

Moreno, Santiago G.; Ray, Joshua A.

2016-01-01

Objective The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the ‘value of innovation’ reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. Method The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). Results The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. Conclusion We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers. PMID:27123192

48 CFR 15.403-4 - Requiring certified cost or pricing data (10 U.S.C. 2306a and 41 U.S.C. 254b).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... priced changes for which certified cost or pricing data would not otherwise be required are included for... Pricing Data, in the format specified in 15.406-2, certifying that to the best of its knowledge and belief...

Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

2018-01-01

An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... price of such security future as shown by any regularly published reporting or quotation service, and... regularly published reporting or quotation service. If there is no recent closing sale price, the security... to financial relations between a security futures intermediary and a customer with respect to...

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

Constructive Decision Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-16

quantitative issues like price/earnings ratio to be relevant to the future value of Google, while the other considers astrological tables relevant to...Google’s future value. The DM who uses astrology might not understand price/earnings ratios (the no- tion is simply not in his vocabulary) and, similarly

Energy: the impact of availability and prices on future business prospects. [Collection of 12 papers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peelle, D.M.

1975-01-01

This collection includes twelve papers, all but one being presented at an August 1974 seminar. These are entitled Energy: Policy, Availability and Prices, Harry R. Hall; Public Policy and the Energy Crisis, Edward J. Mitchell; How Federal Price and Allocation Controls on Oil Have Worsened the Energy Crisis, William A. Johnson; Energy Availability in the Near and Long-Range Future, R.R. Wright; Consideration of Natural Gas Supply for Michigan, Donald L. Katz; The Outlook for Coal, Robert V. Price; Electricity: Future Availability and Cost, G. L. Heins; Solar Energy Research and Development, F. Tom Sparrow; Energy in the Automobile, Doron K.more » Samples; Energy and Future Business Prospects: Implication for Feedstocks-Using Industries, William H. Shaker; Energy Conservation in the Processing Industries, Alfred F. Waterland; and Energy Management: Guidelines and Case Histories, G. N. Tiberio. Letter from OPEC is a dissertation by Joseph Kraft on a visit to OPEC headquarters in Vienna. (MCW)« less

Volatilities, Traded Volumes, and Price Increments in Derivative Securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyungsik; Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, Soo Yong; Scalas, Enrico

2007-03-01

We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to the statistics of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. For our case, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to the inherent higher-order correlation not detected by applying directly the DFA to logarithmic increments of the KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of futures prices and to generate the geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It is really shown from comparing the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments makes the volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes may be supported the hypothesis of price changes.

Volatilities, traded volumes, and the hypothesis of price increments in derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Scalas, Enrico; Kim, Kyungsik

2007-08-01

A detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied to the statistics of Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. In this study, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of the long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to a inherent higher-order correlation not detected by with the direct application of the DFA to logarithmic increments of KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of future prices and to generate a geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It was found from a comparison of the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments leads to volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes can be supported by the hypothesis of price changes.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

77 FR 2595 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of a Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-18

...-side second order in one of two formats: (1) A specified single price; or (2) a non-price specific... enhance competition in the AIM Auctions and provide customers with additional opportunities for price... NBBO; and (ii) allow Initiating TPHs to designate a limit price if it elects to auto-match. This...

Vegetation canopy cover effects on sediment erosion processes in the upper Colorado River Basin mancos shale formation, Price, Utah

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study provides new parameterizations for applying the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) on the highly erosive, rangeland saline soils of the Mancos Shale formation in the Price-San Rafael River Basin in east central Utah. Calibrated hydrologic parameters (Kss and K') values are gener...

Pricing Software and Information on CD-ROM.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbins, Patrick

1987-01-01

Examines the relationships between purchases of optical data disk products, publishers, and software suppliers. The discussion covers current pricing strategies for optical data disk software and information products, and possible future developments in marketing and pricing. (CLB)

U.S. energy outlook and future energy impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Randolph John

2011-12-01

Energy markets were not immune to the 2007 financial crisis. Growth in the Indian and Chinese economies is placing strains on global energy supplies that could force a repeat of the 2008 price spike of $145/bbl for crude oil. Emerging market growth coupled with inefficiencies, frictions, and speculation in the energy markets has the potential to create drastic economic shocks throughout the world. The 2007 economic crisis has pushed back investment in energy projects where a low-growth scenario in world GDP could create drastic price increases in world energy prices. Without a long-term energy supply plan, the U.S. is destined to see growth reduced and its trade imbalances continue to deteriorate with increasing energy costs. Analysis of the U.S. natural gas futures markets and the impact of financial speculation on natural gas market pricing determined that financial speculation adds to price movements in the energy markets, which could cause violent swings in energy prices.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

PubMed

Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

2014-05-01

Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

Changing the Game?: Emissions and Market Implications of New Natural Gas Supplies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huntington, Hillard G.

This study evaluates the channels through which shale formations and new natural gas supplies can change energy, economic and environmental opportunities within North America. It concludes that continued shale gas development within North America is likely to have more sweeping impacts on future energy prices than on the economy or the environment. This evaluation was conducted by a working group of 50 experts and advisors from a range of diverse universities, research institutes, corporations and government agencies. Support for the study’s conclusions came from 14 different expert teams using their own energy-economy models.

Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE

75 FR 34959 - Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-21

... software should be filed in native applications or print-to-PDF format and not in a scanned format. Mail... F.3d 1424 (D.C. Cir. 1996). \\3\\ Order Establishing Index for Oil Price Change Ceiling Levels, 114... (2003), affirmed, Flying J Inc., et al., v. FERC, 363 F.3d 495 (DC Cir. 2004). \\6\\ Order Establishing...

Breakeven Prices for Photovoltaics on Supermarkets in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ong, S.; Clark, N.; Denholm, P.

The photovoltaic (PV) breakeven price is the PV system price at which the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. This point is also called 'grid parity' and can be expressed as dollars per watt ($/W) of installed PV system capacity. Achieving the PV breakeven price depends on many factors, including the solar resource, local electricity prices, customer load profile, PV incentives, and financing. In the United States, where these factors vary substantially across regions, breakeven prices vary substantially across regions as well. In this study, we estimate current and future breakeven prices formore » PV systems installed on supermarkets in the United States. We also evaluate key drivers of current and future commercial PV breakeven prices by region. The results suggest that breakeven prices for PV systems installed on supermarkets vary significantly across the United States. Non-technical factors -- including electricity rates, rate structures, incentives, and the availability of system financing -- drive break-even prices more than technical factors like solar resource or system orientation. In 2020 (where we assume higher electricity prices and lower PV incentives), under base-case assumptions, we estimate that about 17% of supermarkets will be in utility territories where breakeven conditions exist at a PV system price of $3/W; this increases to 79% at $1.25/W (the DOE SunShot Initiative's commercial PV price target for 2020). These percentages increase to 26% and 91%, respectively, when rate structures favorable to PV are used.« less

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel Price Computation II Appendix II to Part 504 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to...

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel Price Computation II Appendix II to Part 504 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to...

How have hospitals faced the pricing issues of the 1990's?

PubMed

Kleimenhagen, A; Naidu, G M; Pillari, G D

1994-01-01

National health care expenditures are rising rapidly, bringing on a health care financing crisis. For this reason, it is useful to see how hospitals are facing the price issues of the 1990's. This study examines the price strategies hospitals follow and analyzes their observations on price sensitivity and payer mix. The results clearly show that hospitals have not given much attention to the pricing variable. The study suggests that marketing and finance will have to work closely together in developing future pricing strategies.

Coupons and advertising in markets for addictive goods: do cigarette manufacturers react to known future tax increases?

PubMed

Lillard, Dean R; Sfekas, Andrew

2005-01-01

We develop and test a pricing model for a monopolist that sells an addictive good. The model illustrates the conditions under which a monopolist lowers the price he charges youth when a future tax is imposed. Using household survey data, we investigate whether individuals use "cents-off" coupons in a way consistent with the price discrimination implied by the model. We find evidence that all smokers, not just the young, are more likely to use coupons prior to a tax increase if they are exposed to more advertising. With our data we cannot test whether cigarette manufacturers selectively offer youth price discounts in other ways.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

The Database Business: Managing Today--Planning for Tomorrow. Issues and Futures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aitchison, T. M.; And Others

1988-01-01

Current issues and the future of the database business are discussed in five papers. Topics covered include aspects relating to the quality of database production; international ownership in the U.S. information marketplace; an overview of pricing strategies in the electronic information industry; and pricing issues from the viewpoints of online…

75 FR 77926 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Accelerated Approval of a Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-14

... below. For example, investors may obtain on a 24-hour basis gold pricing information based on the spot... spot price of gold and last sale prices of gold futures, as well as information about news and... trading of spot gold, as well as a feed of live streaming prices to Reuters and Moneyline Telerate...

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

Activities for Students: Predicting Future Gas Prices Using the Standards for Mathematical Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bismarck, Stephen F.; Zelkowski, Jeremy; Gleason, Jim

2014-01-01

Like many commodities, the price of gasoline continues to rise, and these price changes are readily observed in gas stations' signage. Moreover, algebraic methods are well suited to model price change and answer the student's question. Over the course of one ninety-minute block or two forty-five-minute classes, students build functions…

OFT, VBP: QED?

PubMed

Claxton, Karl

2007-06-01

The report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) on the UK pharmaceutical price regulation scheme (PPRS) recommends the reform of the current scheme, which is a combination of profit and price controls, to one where price is based on the health benefits offered by a pharmaceutical. On closer examination some of the more commonly expressed concerns about these proposals do not seem to be well founded. In principle, the OFT's recommendations may contribute to allocative and dynamic efficiency in the NHS. However, there are some dangers and the details of how it will be implemented are crucial. For example, value-based pricing with an inappropriate threshold for cost-effectiveness, or an inappropriate pricing structure, could lead to technologies being adopted at prices where their benefits, in terms of health outcome, do not offset the health displaced elsewhere in the NHS, a situation in which the NHS is damaged rather than improved by innovation. A failure to account for uncertainty and the value of evidence in negotiating prices and coverage could also undermine the evidence base for future NHS practice. Whatever view is taken, the OFT report will inevitably shape the scope of future policy debates about value, guidance, price and innovation.

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

2014-05-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

Predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to future price increases. Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K Michael

2011-06-01

Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers' expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys.

Predictors of What Smokers Say They Will Do in Response to Future Price Increases. Findings From the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey

PubMed Central

Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K. Michael

2011-01-01

Introduction: Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Methods: Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. Results: The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. Conclusions: The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers’ expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys. PMID:21385909

Pricing medicines: theory and practice, challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Gregson, Nigel; Sparrowhawk, Keiron; Mauskopf, Josephine; Paul, John

2005-02-01

The pricing of medicines has become one of the most hotly debated topics of recent times, with the pharmaceutical industry seemingly being attacked from all quarters. From a company perspective, determining the price for each new product is more crucial than ever, given the present dearth of new drug introductions. But how are pricing strategies developed in practice? What is value-based pricing and how are financial models of return on investment constructed? What are the challenges faced in setting the price for a particular product, and how will scientific and environmental trends provide future pricing challenges or opportunities?

Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM). Revision A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Michael Hosung

1997-01-01

In the recent couple of decades, due to international competition, the US launchers lost a considerable amount of market share in the international space launch industry'. Increased international competition has continuously affected the US dominance to eventually place great pressure on future US space launch programs. To compete for future payload and passenger delivery markets, new launch vehicles must first be capable of reliably reaching a number of desired orbital destinations with customer-desired payload capacities. However, the ultimate success of a new launch vehicle program will depend on the launch price it is capable of offering it's customers. Extremely aggressive pricing strategies will be required for a new domestic launch service to compete with low-price international launchers. Low launch prices, then, naturally require a tight budget for the launch program economy. Therefore, budget constraints established by low-pricing requirements eventually place pressure on new launch vehicles to have unprecedentedly low Life Cycle Costs (LCC's).

75 FR 50789 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-17

... spot price for an ounce of Bullion from various financial information service providers, such as... regarding the spot price of Bullion and last sale prices of Bullion futures, as well as information about...\\ 15 U.S.C. 78k-1(a)(1)(C)(iii). \\9\\ The IIV is calculated by multiplying the indicative spot price of...

75 FR 56156 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-15

.... For example, investors may obtain on a 24-hour basis Bullion pricing information based on the spot... spot price of Bullion and last sale prices of Bullion futures, as well as information about news and....S.C. 78k-1(a)(1)(C)(iii). \\9\\ The IIV is calculated by multiplying the indicative spot price of...

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

1981-12-01

An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

Carbon dioxide removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffman, D.'Maris; Lockley, Andrew

2017-01-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for later performance on a contract. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded directly between two parties. Futures and forwards are used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the potential use of futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets; concluding that they have one principal advantage (near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge caution about the prospects for market failure. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. While regulation offers increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach—finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2011-01-01

Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006–2015 data for China’s 22 provinces

PubMed Central

Pang, Jinbo; Deng, Lingfei

2017-01-01

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a “buy” strategy and speculators adopt a “do not speculate” strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies. PMID:28241024

An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006-2015 data for China's 22 provinces.

PubMed

Pang, Jinbo; Deng, Lingfei; Wang, Gangyi

2017-01-01

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a "buy" strategy and speculators adopt a "do not speculate" strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies.

Does the OVX matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from the crude oil market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Wendai

2018-02-01

In this paper, I investigate that whether the OVX and its truncated parts with a certain threshold can significantly help in forecasting the oil futures price volatility basing on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In-sample estimation results show that the OVX has a significantly positive impact on futures volatility. The impact of large OVX on future volatility has slightly powerful compared to the small ones. Moreover, the HARQ-RV model outperforms the HAR-RV in predicting the oil futures volatility. More importantly, the decomposed OVX have more powerful in forecasting the oil futures price volatility compared to the OVX itself.

Automated Array Assembly, Phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daiello, R. V.

1978-01-01

The purpose of the overall program is to establish technological readiness and provide verification for the elements of a manufacturing sequence which would ultimately be suitable for the large-scale production of silicon solar-array modules at a selling price of less than $500/kW. A program and process plan for accomplishing this objective was developed and put into operation. Three junction-formation processes are shown; since cost analysis shows that they do not differ greatly in cost, each should be considered for technical merits and possible future cost reduction. The progress made in the various process steps of the plan is described, and conclusions are presented.

The Cost and Price Dilemma of Scholarly Journals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Donald W.; Tenopir, Carol

2000-01-01

Examines overall costs of the scientific scholarly journal system and finds that relative system costs have not increased since the late 1970s. Describes scholarly publishing costs; factors that have contributed to spiraling price increases and changes in journal subscription demand; and alternative pricing policies that might help in the future.…

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

Non-equilibrium price theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk; Kern, Daniel

2000-11-01

We propose two theories for the formation of stock prices under the condition that the number of available stocks is fixed. Both theories consider the balance equations for cash and several kinds of stocks. They also take into account interest rates, dividends, and transaction costs. The proposed theories have the advantage that they do not require iterative procedures to determine the price, which would be inefficient for simulations with many agents.

Carbon Dioxide Removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, A.; Coffman, D.

2016-12-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for performance on a contract at some later date. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded over-the-counter between two independent parties. Both futures and forward contracts are commonly used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the use of potential use of exchange-traded futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets. We conclude that they have one principal advantage (in that they give near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (in that a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge great caution in the use of this approach. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. Whilst regulation offers generally increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach - finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

Method for a dummy CD mirror server based on NAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Muna; Pei, Jing

2002-09-01

With the development of computer network, information sharing is becoming the necessity in human life. The rapid development of CD-ROM and CD-ROM driver techniques makes it possible to issue large database online. After comparing many designs of dummy CD mirror database, which are the embodiment of a main product in CD-ROM database now and in near future, we proposed and realized a new PC based scheme. Our system has the following merits, such as, supporting all kinds of CD format; supporting many network protocol; the independence of mirror network server and the main server; low price, super large capacity, without the need of any special hardware. Preliminarily experiments have verified the validity of the proposed scheme. Encouraged by the promising application future, we are now preparing to put it into market. This paper discusses the design and implement of the CD-ROM server detailedly.

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

The dynamics of fresh fruit and vegetable pricing in the supermarket channel.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Edward W

2004-09-01

This paper explains the major factors that contribute to the complicated price formation process, as several levels, of fresh fruit and vegetables in the US. Several factors are explored: marketing channels, market structure changes, pricing techniques and promotional impacts, retail responses to supply changes, and price versus value. The paper illustrates with recent examples and research findings that the fresh produce system is dynamic and that simplistic solutions to complex problems are not likely. The paper finishes by suggesting some areas for needed additional research.

E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D; Chaloupka, Frank J

2018-05-01

We estimated associations between e-cigarette prices (both disposable and refill) and e-cigarette use among middle and high-school students in the United States. We also estimated associations between cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. We used regression models to estimate the associations between e-cigarette and cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. In our regression models, we exploited changes in e-cigarette and cigarette prices across four periods of time and across 50 markets. We report the associations as price elasticities. In our primary model, we controlled for socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette prices, tobacco control policies, market fixed effects and year-quarter fixed effects. United States of America. A total of 24 370 middle- and high-school students participating in the Monitoring the Future Survey in years 2014 and 2015. Self-reported e-cigarette use over the last 30 days. Average quarterly cigarette prices, e-cigarette disposable prices and e-cigarette refill prices were constructed from Nielsen retail data (inclusive of excise taxes) for 50 US markets. In a model with market fixed effects, we estimated that a 10% increase in e-cigarette disposable prices is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping among e-cigarette users by approximately 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -17.7 to 1.8%; P = 0.02] and is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping by the full sample by approximately 17.9% (95% CI = -31.5 to -4.2%; P = 0.01). Refill e-cigarette prices were not statistically significant predictors of vaping. Cigarette prices were not associated significantly with e-cigarette use regardless of the e-cigarette price used. However, in a model without market fixed effects, cigarette prices were a statistically significant positive predictor of total e-cigarette use. Higher e-cigarette disposable prices appear to be associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adolescents in the US. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Energy environment study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangways, R.

1981-01-01

The international demand for and supply of oil between the years 1980 and 2000 is assessed and future world oil prices and their implications for the price of jet fuel are estimated. Three critical questions are investigated: (1) how long will the world supply of oil continue to keep pace with its demand under likely trends in its use and discovery; (2) at what price will demand and supply clear the world oil market; (3) what does the analysis imply about the price of jet fuel. Projection of oil price is based upon supply and demand, which is consistent with microeconomic analysis.

75 FR 12320 - Self-Regulatory Organization; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... rule change will amend the definition of ``adjustment increment'' applicable to stock futures. II. Self...). Daily settlement prices and trade prices would continue to be expressed in pennies on a per-contract... settlement price the following day is $50.05, a mark-to-market of $50.05-$49.875 = $0.1750, or $17.50 per...

Future Pacific Rim flows and prices of softwood logs, differentiated by grade.

Treesearch

Donald F. Flora; Andrea L. Anderson; Wendy J. McGInnls

1990-01-01

By 2000, prices are expected to rise significantly for medium-grade logs and modestly for low-grade logs. World economic cycles may obscure, however, the upward price trends. Exports from the United States of medium grades are expected to remain stable, while volumes of lower grades are projected to remain level through 1995 and then decline because of competition....

Essays on oil price volatility and irreversible investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Daniel J.

In chapter 1, we provide an extensive and systematic evaluation of the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of daily spot crude oil prices. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered significant gains in forecasting performance of Markov Switching GARCH models over GARCH models for the volatility of financial assets and crude oil futures. We find that, for spot oil price returns, non-switching models perform better in the short run, whereas switching models tend to do better at longer horizons. In chapter 2, I investigate the impact of volatility on firms' irreversible investment decisions using real options theory. Cost incurred in oil drilling is considered sunk cost, thus irreversible. I collect detailed data on onshore, development oil well drilling on the North Slope of Alaska from 2003 to 2014. Volatility is modeled by constructing GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH forecasts based on monthly real oil prices, and realized volatility from 5-minute intraday returns of oil futures prices. Using a duration model, I show that oil price volatility generally has a negative relationship with the hazard rate of drilling an oil well both when aggregating all the fields, and in individual fields.

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

2008-01-01

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

77 FR 77038 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Notice of Intent to Renew Collection, Futures Volume...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-31

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Agency Information Collection Activities: Notice of Intent to Renew Collection, Futures Volume, Open Interest, Price, Deliveries and Exchange of Futures for Physicals AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading...

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

Coupling mechanism of electric vehicle and grid under the background of smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Mingyu; Li, Dezhi; Chen, Rongjun; Shu, Han; He, Yongxiu

2018-02-01

With the development of smart distribution technology in the future, electric vehicle users can not only charge reasonably based on peak-valley price, they can also discharge electricity into the power grid to realize their economic benefit when it’s necessary and thus promote peak load shifting. According to the characteristic that future electric vehicles can discharge, this paper studies the interaction effect between electric vehicles and the grid based on TOU (time of use) Price Strategy. In this paper, four scenarios are used to compare the change of grid load after implementing TOU Price Strategy. The results show that the wide access of electric vehicles can effectively reduce peak and valley difference.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas. Improving water demand forecasts will help planners understand and optimize future investments in water supply infrastructure and related programs.

Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

PubMed

Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-14

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Hydrogeologic reconnaissance of part of the headwaters area of the Price River, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cordova, Robert M.

1963-01-01

The area investigated comprises 33 square miles in the Price River drainage basin ad is in the High Plateaus section of Utah. Precipitation on most of the area ranges from about 20 to 23 inches per year, and the average annual precipitation for the entire area was assumed to be 22 inches, of which approximately 65 percent is lost by evapotranspiration. The geologic formations underlying the area are the Blackhawk and Price River Formations of Cretaceous age, the North Horn Formation of Cretaceous and Tertiary age, the Flagstaff Limestone and Colton Formation of tertiary age, and unconsolidated deposits of probable Quaternary age.Some ground water issues from springs and seeps and is used by stock and the cities of Price and Helper. The annual discharge from the springs and seeps in the area averages about 3,000 acre-feet. Two deep wells supply about 400 acre-feet per year for use at a steam-generating plant. The aquifers penetrated by the wells are in the Flagstaff Limestone and the North Horn formation, the deepest aquifer being about 1,500 feet below the land surface. Most of the ground water in the area is suitable for municipal and industrial use.The surface discharge from the area is approximately 6,000 acre-feet per year. By means of a water budget, it is calculated that approximately 4,000 acre-feet per year leaves the area by subsurface flow. Further development of ground water on a large scale can be accomplished only by the use of wells. It is possible, however, that part of any newly developed supply from wells may be drawn from existing spring discharge or streamflow.

Generic medicine pricing in Europe: current issues and future perspective.

PubMed

Simoens, Steven

2008-01-01

This editorial discusses a number of trends affecting the pricing of generic medicines in Europe. With respect to pricing, recent evidence has emerged that European generic medicine manufacturers face competition from Indian manufacturers; that the price level of generic medicines varies substantially between European countries; and that generic medicine manufacturers engage in competition by discount rather than price competition in France, The Netherlands and the UK. These trends suggest that there may be scope for further reducing the prices of generic medicines in several countries. In relation to reference pricing, most European countries have incorporated market incentives within reference pricing systems with a view to promoting price competition. The European experience indicates that the generic medicines industry delivers competitive prices under a reference pricing system if demand-side policies are in place that stimulate physicians, pharmacists and patients to use generic medicines. Finally, caution needs to be exercised when focusing on the drivers of generic medicine pricing as these drivers not only vary between countries, but may also vary within a country. Manufacturers of originator and generic medicines do not take a single pricing approach following patent expiry, but vary their pricing strategy from molecule to molecule.

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phil Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios ofmore » vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.« less

Strategic wholesale pricing for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart.

PubMed

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

Strategic Wholesale Pricing for an Incumbent Supplier Facing with a Competitive Counterpart

PubMed Central

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting. PMID:25614891

Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer

One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.

Mechanical vs. informational components of price impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyne Farmer, J.; Zamani, N.

2007-01-01

We study the problem of what causes prices to change. It is well known that trading impacts prices — orders to buy drive the price up, and orders to sell drive it down. We introduce a means of decomposing the total impact of trading into two components, defining the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and the informational impact as the remainder of the total impact once mechanical impact is removed. This decomposition is performed using order book data from the London Stock Exchange. The average mechanical impact of a market order decays to zero as a function of time, at an asymptotic rate that is consistent with a power law with an exponent of roughly 1.7. In contrast the average informational impact builds to approach a constant value. Initially the impact is entirely mechanical, and is about half as big as the asymptotic informational impact. The size of the informational impact is positively correlated to mechanical impact. For cases where the mechanical impact is zero for all times, we find that the informational impact is negative, i.e. buy market orders that have no mechanical impact at all generate strong negative price responses.

Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents' source of cigarette access?

PubMed

Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

2017-06-01

We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents' cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7-12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07-1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source.

An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Cole, Wesley; Lantz, Eric

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gasmore » prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.« less

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

PubMed

Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

2009-03-01

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Statistical regularities of Carbon emission trading market: Evidence from European Union allowances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zeyu; Xiao, Rui; Shi, Haibo; Li, Guihong; Zhou, Xiaofeng

2015-05-01

As an emerging financial market, the trading value of carbon emission trading market has definitely increased. In recent years, the carbon emission allowances have already become a way of investment. They are bought and sold not only by carbon emitters but also by investors. In this paper, we analyzed the price fluctuations of the European Union allowances (EUA) futures in European Climate Exchange (ECX) market from 2007 to 2011. The symmetric and power-law probability density function of return time series was displayed. We found that there are only short-range correlations in price changes (return), while long-range correlations in the absolute of price changes (volatility). Further, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) approach was applied with focus on long-range autocorrelations and Hurst exponent. We observed long-range power-law autocorrelations in the volatility that quantify risk, and found that they decay much more slowly than the autocorrelation of return time series. Our analysis also showed that the significant cross correlations exist between return time series of EUA and many other returns. These cross correlations exist in a wide range of fields, including stock markets, energy concerned commodities futures, and financial futures. The significant cross-correlations between energy concerned futures and EUA indicate the physical relationship between carbon emission and energy production process. Additionally, the cross-correlations between financial futures and EUA indicate that the speculation behavior may become an important factor that can affect the price of EUA. Finally we modeled the long-range volatility time series of EUA with a particular version of the GARCH process, and the result also suggests long-range volatility autocorrelations.

Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, D. C.; Schmitt, T. A.; Schäfer, R.; Guhr, T.; Wolf, D. E.

2014-12-01

An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior in a wide parameter range. Second, we embed our decision model in an order book setting. Here, we observe interesting features which are not present in the equilibrium pricing scheme. In particular, we find a nontrivial behavior of the order book volumes which reminds of a trend switching phenomenon. Thus, the decision making model alone does not realistically represent the trading and the stylized facts. The order book mechanism is crucial.

Effect of privatization of the drug distribution system on drug prices in Malaysia.

PubMed

Babar, Z D; Izham, M I M

2009-08-01

Previous studies on anti-infective and cardiovascular drugs have shown extraordinary price increases following privatization of the Malaysian drug distribution system. Therefore, it was felt that there was a need to undertake a full-scale study to evaluate the effect of privatization of the Malaysian drug distribution system on drug prices. To compare pre-privatization drug prices with post-privatization drug prices, and to compare the prices with international reference prices (IRPs). Five hundred and sixty-four drugs were listed in price lists for 1994, 1995-1996, 1997-2000 and 2001-2003. The 1994 data were taken as the pre-privatization prices, and all other lists were considered to be post-privatization prices. The pre-privatization prices (1994) were compared with those in 1995-1996. The prices in 1995-1996 were compared with those in 1997-2000, and the 1997-2000 prices were compared with those in 2001-2003. Furthermore, the 2001-2003 prices were compared with the median IRPs taken from Management Sciences for Health. The prices increased by 10.42% in 1995-1996, decreased by 3.37% in 1997-2000, and increased by 64.04% in 2001-2003. The increase in prices does not follow any pricing formula but is influenced by free market principles. The commonly used generic drugs showed enormously higher prices compared with the IRPs. Some of the prices increased several hundred-fold compared with the previous year, showing that no pricing formula has been followed. Increasing prices over the years may lead to higher expenditures and a hurdle to drug accessibility. A rational pricing structure is needed for transparent pricing, and government involvement and the formation of a medicine pricing policy seems vital.

The 1986 world oil puzzle: Confusion and anxiety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, S.

1986-01-01

The turbulent international political and economic events of the 1970s and 1980s reinforce the instinctive feeling that the future is inherently unpredictable. Yet we continue to strive for a perception of the future because it is a necessary component of a rational framework for intelligent decision making. In this paper, the chronological evolution of oil pricing is presented to provide an historical perspective to view current events. The outlook for the main determinants of oil price is then examined.

The Future of Fossil Fuels: A Century of Abundance or a Century of Decline?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelder, C.

2012-12-01

Horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and other advanced technologies have spawned a host of new euphoric forecasts of hydrocarbon abundance. Yet although the world's remaining oil and gas resources are enormous, most of them are destined to stay in the ground due to real-world constraints on price, flow rates, investor appetite, supply chain security, resource quality, and global economic conditions. While laboring under the mistaken belief that it sits atop a 100-year supply of natural gas, the U.S. is contemplating exporting nearly all of its shale gas production even as that production is already flattening due to poor economics. Instead of bringing "energy independence" to the U.S. and making it the top oil exporter, unrestricted drilling for tight oil and in the federal outer continental shelf would cut the lifespan of U.S. oil production in half and make it the world's most desperate oil importer by mid-century. And current forecasts for Canadian tar sands production are as unrealistic as their failed predecessors. Over the past century, world energy production has moved progressively from high quality resources with high production rates and low costs to lower quality resources with lower production rates and higher costs, and that progression is accelerating. Soon we will discover the limits of practical extraction, as production costs exceed consumer price tolerance. Oil and gas from tight formations, shale, bitumen, kerogen, coalbeds, deepwater, and the Arctic are not the stuff of new abundance, but the oil junkie's last dirty fix. This session will highlight the gap between the story the industry tells about our energy future, and the story the data tells about resource size, production rates, costs, and consumer price tolerance. It will show why it's time to put aside unrealistic visions of continued dependence on fossil fuels, face up to a century of decline, and commit ourselves to energy and transportation transition.

78 FR 42113 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-15

... Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission'') has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget... settlement price for each cash-settled security futures product fairly reflect the opening price of the... Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and...

The Role of the National Training Center during Full Mobilization

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-07

resources are proposed by this study. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 217 National Training Center (NTC); Training; Mobilization; Combat 16. PRICE ... Price Code, Enter appropriate price Block 8. Performina Oraanization Report code (NTIS only). Number, Enter the unique alphanumeric report number(s...Regular Army and a transfer of their roles to the Reserve Component. The end of the Cold War makes future mobilization needs less likely and argues for

Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2017-01-01

Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.

Tax, price and cigarette smoking: evidence from the tobacco documents and implications for tobacco company marketing strategies

PubMed Central

Chaloupka, F; Cummings, K; Morley, C.; Horan, J.

2002-01-01

Methods: Data for this study come from tobacco industry documents contained in the Youth and Marketing database created by the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and available through http:// roswell.tobaccodocuments.org, supplemented with documents obtained from http://www.tobaccodocuments.org. Results: Tobacco company documents provide clear evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette smoking, describing how tax related and other price increases lead to significant reductions in smoking, particularly among young persons. This information was very important in developing the industry's pricing strategies, including the development of lower price branded generics and the pass through of cigarette excise tax increases, and in developing a variety of price related marketing efforts, including multi-pack discounts, couponing, and others. Conclusions: Pricing and price related promotions are among the most important marketing tools employed by tobacco companies. Future tobacco control efforts that aim to raise prices and limit price related marketing efforts are likely to be important in achieving reductions in tobacco use and the public health toll caused by tobacco. PMID:11893816

Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

2017-07-01

Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or 'NEMS' model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or “NEMS” model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. Lastly, we explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE PAGES

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances; ...

2017-11-01

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or 'NEMS' model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE PAGES

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances; ...

2017-09-07

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or “NEMS” model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. Lastly, we explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Understanding Financial Innovation: An Introduction to Derivative Financial Products.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, J. N.

1992-01-01

Explains the use of forwards, futures, swaps, and options in international currency trading. Argues that pricing options are based on the same basic principles as pricing other financial instruments. Concludes that, although financial markets have developed several new products, hedging and speculation involve similar processes. (CFR)

75 FR 55370 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-10

... Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission'') has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget a... Affairs, Office of Management and Budget, Room 10102, New Executive Office Building, Washington, DC 20503... settlement price for each cash-settled security futures product fairly reflect the opening price of the...

Increased Topical Generic Prices by Manufacturers: An Isolated Trend or Worrisome Future?

PubMed

Bhatt, Mehul D; Bhatt, Birju D; Dorrian, James T; McLellan, Beth N

2018-03-12

There is limited data regarding generic medication prices. Recent studies have shown price changes at the retail level, but much is not known about the pharmaceutical supply chain or price changes at the manufacturer level. We sought to examine the extent of price changes for topical generic medications. A comprehensive review of average wholesale prices (AWP) and manufacturers of topical generics and available corresponding branded medications was conducted for 2005 and 2016. A total of 51 topical chemical entities were examined. Between 2005 and 2016, the AWP of topical generics increased by 273% and the AWP of topical branded increased by 379%. The topical generic with the most price change increased by 2529%. Eight of the top twenty topical generics with the highest increase in AWP also had an increase in the number of manufacturers. These findings are not generalizable to medications used in other areas of medicine CONCLUSIONS: Topical generic prices are rapidly increasing at the manufacturer level. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Market trends in the projection display industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Sweta

2000-04-01

The projection display industry represents a multibillion- dollar market that includes four distinct technologies. High-volume consumer products and high-value business products drive the market, with different technologies being used in different application markets. The consumer market is dominated by rear CRT technology, especially in the projection television segment. But rear LCD (liquid crystal display) and rear reflective (DLP, or Digital Light ProcessingTM) televisions are slowly emerging as future competitors to rear CRT projectors. Front CRT projectors are still popular in the high-end home theater market. Front LCD technology and front DLP technology dominate the business market. Traditional light valve technology was the only solution for applications requiring high light outputs, but new three-chip DLP projectors meet the higher light output requirements at a lower price. In the last few years the strongest growth has been in the business market for multimedia presentation applications. This growth was due to the continued increase in display pixel formats, the continued reduction in projector weight, and the improved price/performance ratio. The projection display market will grow at a significant rate during the next five years, driven by the growth in ultraportable (< 10 pound) projectors and the shift in the consumer market to digital and HDTV products.

Financial Stylized Facts in the Word of Mouth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misawa, Tadanobu; Watanabe, Kyoko; Shimokawa, Tetsuya

Recently, we proposed an agent-based model called the word of mouth model to analyze the influence of an information transmission process to price formation in financial markets. Especially, the short-term predictability of asset return was focused on and an explanation in the view of information transmission was provided to the question why the predictability was much clearly observed in the small-sized stocks. This paper, to extend the previous study, demonstrates that the word of mouth model also has a consistency with other important financial stylized facts. This strengthens the possibility that the information transmission among investors plays a crucial role in price formation. Concretely, this paper addresses two famous statistical features of returns; the leptokurtic distribution of return and the autocorrelation of return volatility. The reasons why these statistical facts receive especial attentions of researchers among financial stylized facts are their statistical robustness and practical importance, such as the applications to the derivative pricing problems.

Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents’ source of cigarette access?

PubMed Central

Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

2017-01-01

Abstract We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents’ cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7–12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07–1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source. PMID:28658140

Phosphate rock costs, prices and resources interaction.

PubMed

Mew, M C

2016-01-15

This article gives the author's views and opinions as someone who has spent his working life analyzing the international phosphate sector as an independent consultant. His career spanned two price hike events in the mid-1970's and in 2008, both of which sparked considerable popular and academic interest concerning adequacy of phosphate rock resources, the impact of rising mining costs and the ability of mankind to feed future populations. An analysis of phosphate rock production costs derived from two major industry studies performed in 1983 and 2013 shows that in nominal terms, global average cash production costs increased by 27% to $38 per tonne fob mine in the 30 year period. In real terms, the global average cost of production has fallen. Despite the lack of upward pressure from increasing costs, phosphate rock market prices have shown two major spikes in the 30 years to 2013, with periods of less volatility in between. These price spike events can be seen to be related to the escalating investment cost required by new mine capacity, and as such can be expected to be repeated in future. As such, phosphate rock price volatility is likely to have more impact on food prices than rising phosphate rock production costs. However, as mining costs rise, recycling of P will also become increasingly driven by economics rather than legislation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingshu; Everson, Mark P; Wallington, Timothy J; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E

2016-07-19

Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as "critical materials". Studies of future PGM flows have focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators. We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately 45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles. The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately, automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals. As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some of this growing demand.

Effects of the relative fee structure on the use of surgical operations.

PubMed

Escarce, J J

1993-10-01

The goal is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework for investigating how the demand for an operation may be affected by the fee for the operation (the own-price) and by fees for other services provided by surgeons in the same specialty (the cross-price). The theory suggests an empirical test of whether surgeons create demand for surgery. The study examines the use of 11 frequently performed surgical operations by elderly Medicare enrollees in a cross-section of 316 U.S. metropolitan areas. Medicare physician claims and enrollment files for 1986 are the principal sources of data. Using econometric methods, a structural demand equation modified to include the own-price and the cross-price is estimated for each study operation. The theory suggests that the utilization response to changes in fees may differ among operations depending on whether demand creation occurs and on the interplay of distinct own-price and cross-price effects. However, the results of the empirical analyses are inconclusive regarding the most appropriate economic model of surgical utilization. Both neoclassical behavior and demand creation are observed, but technical limitations of the analyses, including the cross-sectional design of the study, preclude definitive inferences. Despite the lack of definitive empirical results, the study has several implications for future research regarding the effect of changes in fees on surgical utilization. In particular, future studies should consider the roles of distinct own-price and cross-price effects, examine the importance of the supply-demand balance in physician services markets, and assess whether typologies of operations that are based on the strictness of their clinical indications predict the appropriate economic model of utilization.

Effects of the relative fee structure on the use of surgical operations.

PubMed Central

Escarce, J J

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE. The goal is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework for investigating how the demand for an operation may be affected by the fee for the operation (the own-price) and by fees for other services provided by surgeons in the same specialty (the cross-price). The theory suggests an empirical test of whether surgeons create demand for surgery. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING. The study examines the use of 11 frequently performed surgical operations by elderly Medicare enrollees in a cross-section of 316 U.S. metropolitan areas. Medicare physician claims and enrollment files for 1986 are the principal sources of data. STUDY DESIGN. Using econometric methods, a structural demand equation modified to include the own-price and the cross-price is estimated for each study operation. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The theory suggests that the utilization response to changes in fees may differ among operations depending on whether demand creation occurs and on the interplay of distinct own-price and cross-price effects. However, the results of the empirical analyses are inconclusive regarding the most appropriate economic model of surgical utilization. Both neoclassical behavior and demand creation are observed, but technical limitations of the analyses, including the cross-sectional design of the study, preclude definitive inferences. CONCLUSIONS. Despite the lack of definitive empirical results, the study has several implications for future research regarding the effect of changes in fees on surgical utilization. In particular, future studies should consider the roles of distinct own-price and cross-price effects, examine the importance of the supply-demand balance in physician services markets, and assess whether typologies of operations that are based on the strictness of their clinical indications predict the appropriate economic model of utilization. PMID:8407339

17 CFR 37.403 - Additional requirements for cash-settled swaps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... requirements for cash-settled swaps. (a) For cash-settled swaps, the swap execution facility shall demonstrate that it monitors the pricing of the reference price used to determine cash flows or settlement; (b) For... cash-settled swaps. 37.403 Section 37.403 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING...

Can and should value-based pricing be applied to molecular diagnostics?

PubMed

Garau, Martina; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis; Housman, Laura; Ossa, Diego

2013-01-01

Current pricing and reimbursement systems for diagnostics are not efficient. Prices for diagnostics are often driven by administrative practices and expected production cost. The purpose of the paper is to discuss how a value-based pricing framework being used to ensure efficient use and price of medicines could also be applied to diagnostics. Diagnostics not only facilitates health gain and cost savings, but also information to guide patients' decisions on interventions and their future 'behaviors'. For value assessment processes we recommend a two-part approach. Companion diagnostics introduced at the launch of the drug should be assessed through new drug assessment processes considering a broad range of value elements and a balanced analysis of diagnostic impacts. A separate diagnostic-dedicated committee using value-based pricing principles should review other diagnostics lying outside the companion diagnostics-and-drug 'at-launch' situation.

Cost of Natural Gas Used in Manufacturing Sector Has Fallen

EIA Publications

2013-01-01

Natural gas has been an important exception to the trend of rising prices for energy sources used by manufacturers. Production of natural gas in the United States increased rapidly beginning in 2007 as a result of resources found in shale formations. That increase in supply has in turn lowered the price of natural gas to manufacturers

Map data catalog

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1980-01-01

- Explains how to order the products you need. Only a few of the products listed in this catalog are stocked. Most of them must be custom-produced to meet your particular requirement. Prices for the variety of products, formats and sizes are contained in a separate and periodically updated list. The price list is available free upon request from any NCIC office.

Characteristics of the Formation of Pricing Strategies by the Higher Educational Institutions of Moscow

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Logunova, O. S.

2011-01-01

The growth of private universities in Russia has made tuition costs an increasingly important factor in students' enrollments across institutions. So far, however, universities do not compete on price, but this strategy will need to change as the system matures and as economic and demographic changes occur. (Contains 1 note.) [This article was…

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are developed from a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for a large dataset. Unconditional and conditional forecasts are compared for U.S. industrial production, real personal income, and estimated factors. Results suggest that economic growth will be slower under the Clean Power Plan than it would otherwise; however, CO2 emissions reductions and economic growth can be achieved simultaneously.

Oil shortages, climate change and collective action.

PubMed

Newbery, David

2011-05-13

Concerns over future oil scarcity might not be so worrying but for the high carbon content of substitutes, and the limited capacity of the atmosphere to absorb additional CO(2) from burning fuel. The paper argues that the tools of economics are helpful in understanding some of the key issues in pricing fossil fuels, the extent to which pricing can be left to markets, the need for, and design of, international agreements on corrective carbon pricing, and the potential Prisoners' Dilemma in reaching such agreements, partly mitigated in the case of oil by current taxes and the probable incidence of carbon taxes on the oil price. The 'Green Paradox', in which carbon pricing exacerbates climate change, is theoretically possible, but empirically unlikely. © 2011 Royal Society

Lookback Option Pricing with Fixed Proportional Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion.

PubMed

Sun, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Shengwu; Zhang, Yan; Han, Miao; Wang, Fei

2014-01-01

The pricing problem of lookback option with a fixed proportion of transaction costs is investigated when the underlying asset price follows a fractional Brownian motion process. Firstly, using Leland's hedging method a partial differential equation satisfied by the value of the lookback option is derived. Then we obtain its numerical solution by constructing a Crank-Nicolson format. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed form is verified through a numerical example. Meanwhile, the impact of transaction cost rate and volatility on lookback option value is discussed.

Lookback Option Pricing with Fixed Proportional Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion

PubMed Central

Sun, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Shengwu; Zhang, Yan; Han, Miao; Wang, Fei

2014-01-01

The pricing problem of lookback option with a fixed proportion of transaction costs is investigated when the underlying asset price follows a fractional Brownian motion process. Firstly, using Leland's hedging method a partial differential equation satisfied by the value of the lookback option is derived. Then we obtain its numerical solution by constructing a Crank-Nicolson format. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed form is verified through a numerical example. Meanwhile, the impact of transaction cost rate and volatility on lookback option value is discussed. PMID:27433525

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drury, E.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.

2013-01-01

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.

Is parallel trade in medicines compatible with the single European market?

PubMed

Senior, I

1992-01-01

For many years the varying methods of price control of medicines by national governments in the European Community (and elsewhere) have resulted in wide variations in prices. Parallel traders buy products in low pricing Community countries and sell them, generally relabelled or repackaged, in high pricing Community countries. This practice diverts sales revenue and profits from the manufacturers to the traders, distributors, pharmacists and, in some measure, to the sickness funds and to some patients. While parallel trade appeals to those who gain financially, its basis is a market distortion that poses a significant threat to the future of the research-based pharmaceutical industry.

MORAL HAZARD IN HEALTH INSURANCE: DO DYNAMIC INCENTIVES MATTER?

PubMed Central

Aron-Dine, Aviva; Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark

2016-01-01

Using data from employer-provided health insurance and Medicare Part D, we investigate whether healthcare utilization responds to the dynamic incentives created by the nonlinear nature of health insurance contracts. We exploit the fact that, because annual coverage usually resets every January, individuals who join a plan later in the year face the same initial (“spot”) price of healthcare but a higher expected end-of-year (“future”) price. We find a statistically significant response of initial utilization to the future price, rejecting the null that individuals respond only to the spot price. We discuss implications for analysis of moral hazard in health insurance. PMID:26769985

Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon

PubMed Central

Motta, Paolo; Handel, Ian G.; Rydevik, Gustaf; Hamman, Saidou M.; Ngwa, Victor Ngu; Tanya, Vincent N.; Morgan, Kenton L.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. deC.; Porphyre, Thibaud

2018-01-01

Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions (n = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price (p < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle (p < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households. PMID:29387687

Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon.

PubMed

Motta, Paolo; Handel, Ian G; Rydevik, Gustaf; Hamman, Saidou M; Ngwa, Victor Ngu; Tanya, Vincent N; Morgan, Kenton L; Bronsvoort, Barend M deC; Porphyre, Thibaud

2017-01-01

Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions ( n  = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price ( p  < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle ( p  < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households.

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production.

PubMed

Yao, Guolin; Staples, Mark D; Malina, Robert; Tyner, Wallace E

2017-01-01

Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm. The stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions. Technical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... such security future is a stock, the product of the daily settlement price of such security future as shown by any regularly published reporting or quotation service, and the applicable number of shares per... regulations applicable to financial relations between a security futures intermediary and a customer with...

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal Acquisition... a representation as to the accuracy of the contractor's judgment on the estimate f future costs or... current data, the contractor's responsibility is not limited by any lack of personal knowledge of the...

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal Acquisition... a representation as to the accuracy of the contractor's judgment on the estimate f future costs or... current data, the contractor's responsibility is not limited by any lack of personal knowledge of the...

75 FR 41914 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-19

... consolidated last sale price by the same specified percentage. The numerical percentage proposed to be used in the Trading Collar price calculations will be equal to the appropriate ``numerical guideline... Collars will automatically be adjusted to match any future changes in the numerical guidelines in NYSE...

College Costs: Recent Trends, Likely Future. Policy Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Cathy

Recent trends in college costs and reasons why college costs have been increasing are considered. Comparative data are presented on recent rates of growth among average college charges, faculty salaries, the Higher Education Price Index (HEPI), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is shown that from 1977 through 1982, average total tuition,…

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 36 - Guidance on, and Acceptable Practices in, Compliance With Core Principles

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... have clear procedures and guidelines for decision-making regarding emergency intervention in the market... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION EXEMPT MARKETS Pt. 36, App. B Appendix B to Part 36—Guidance on, and... trading in significant price discovery contracts to prevent market manipulation, price distortion, and...

2050: A Pricing Odyssey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faruqui, Ahmad

2006-10-15

The author uses the Rip Van Winkle approach favored by marketers to gaze, clear-eyed, into the future - say, the year 2050 - to visualize alternative demand-response possibilities. Dare we go California Dreamin' of a distant utopia - or is it inevitable that pricing myopia will keep us from attaining the fulfillment of many of our career goals? (author)

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DOE may increase the rate of purchases if prices fall below recent price trends or futures markets... accordance with the FAR and the DEAR. (b) Acquisition strategy. (1) DOE solicitations: (i) May be either... availability of ships, pipelines and terminals to move and receive the oil. (3) Based on the market analysis...

Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

Sociological Factors Affecting Agricultural Price Risk Management in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John

2009-01-01

The highly volatile auction system in Australia accounts for 85 percent of ex-farm wool sales, with the remainder sold by forward contract, futures, and other hedging methods. In this article, against the background of an extensive literature on price risk strategies, we investigate the behavioral factors associated with producers' adoption of…

Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

2017-04-01

Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.

Fuel/Engine/Airframe Trade-Off Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

calculated: Prce CgeQl Using Diese Pices Lw l- JP-8 0.67 1.01 Using Heating Oil Prices JP-4 0.0 0.0 JP-8 -0.81 -1.23 On a percentage basis, these price...36. Graham, S. C., J. B. Homer, Jr., and L. L. ,1. Rosenfeld. "The Formation and Coagulation of Soot Aerosols Generated by the Pyrolysis of Aromatic

Behavior analysis in consumer affairs: Retail and consumer response to publicizing food price information

PubMed Central

Greene, Brandon F.; Rouse, Mark; Green, Richard B.; Clay, Connie

1984-01-01

A popular program among consumer action groups involves publicizing comparative food price information (CFPI) gathered from retail stores. Its significance is based on the assumption that publishing CFPI maximizes retail competition (i.e., moderates price levels or price increases) and occasions more frugal store selections among consumers. We tested these assumptions during a 2-year analysis. Specifically, we monitored the prices of two distinct market baskets in the supermarkets of two midwestern cities (target and contrast cities). Following a lengthy baseline, we published the prices of only one of the market baskets at stores in the target city in the local newspaper on five different occasions. The results suggested that reductions in price inflation occurred for both market baskets at the independently operated target stores. The corporate chain stores were not similarly affected. In addition, surveys indicated that many consumers used the CFPI as a basis for store selection. Finally, the analysis included a discussion of the politics, economics, and future of CFPI programs. PMID:16795672

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

PubMed Central

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-01-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior. PMID:24671011

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-03-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior.

Quantum-like Viewpoint on the Complexity and Randomness of the Financial Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

In economics and financial theory, analysts use random walk and more general martingale techniques to model behavior of asset prices, in particular share prices on stock markets, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. This practice has its basis in the presumption that investors act rationally and without bias, and that at any moment they estimate the value of an asset based on future expectations. Under these conditions, all existing information affects the price, which changes only when new information comes out. By definition, new information appears randomly and influences the asset price randomly. Corresponding continuous time models are based on stochastic processes (this approach was initiated in the thesis of [4]), see, e.g., the books of [33] and [37] for historical and mathematical details.

Becker's rational addiction theory: An empirical test with price elasticities for distilled spirits in Denmark 1911-31.

PubMed

Skog, Ole-Jørgen; Melberg, Hans Olav

2006-10-01

To test an implication of Becker's rational addiction theory, namely that price changes will lead both to simultaneous consumption changes as well as lagged changes (and potentially also immediate changes if future changes in prices are anticipated). Time-series analysis, first of aggregate sales of distilled spirits and prices, controlled for gross national product (GNP), and secondly of deaths from delirium tremens. Denmark 1911-31. Price changes were very large in the period 1916-18 due to shortages during World War I, and the Danish case can be conceived as a natural experiment. No evidence for lagged price effects in the expected direction was found. On the contrary, the evidence pointed in the opposite direction. The immediate reduction in sales following rising prices are, to some degree, counteracted by an adjustment in the opposite direction the following year. The delirium tremens data confirm this pattern. Becker's theory is not confirmed. Several possible explanations are discussed. If the pattern observed in these data is representative of a more general mechanism, current price elasticity estimates may be too high, by ignoring lagged compensatory effects.

A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajipriya, N.

2012-10-01

The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

A Case Study of Pharmaceutical Pricing in China: Setting the Price for Off-Patent Originators.

PubMed

Hu, Shanlian; Zhang, Yabing; He, Jiangjiang; Du, Lixia; Xu, Mingfei; Xie, Chunyan; Peng, Ying; Wang, Linan

2015-08-01

This article aims to define a value-based approach to pricing and reimbursement for off-patent originators using a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach centered on a systematic analysis of current pricing and reimbursement policies in China. A drug price policy review was combined with a quantitative analysis of China's drug purchasing database. Policy preferences were identified through a MCDA performed by interviewing well-known academic experts and industry stakeholders. The study findings indicate that the current Chinese price policy includes cost-based pricing and the establishment of maximum retail prices and premiums for off-patent originators, whereas reference pricing may be adopted in the future. The literature review revealed significant differences in the dissolution profiles between originators and generics; therefore, dissolution profiles need to be improved. Market data analysis showed that the overall price ratio of generics and off-patent originators was around 0.54-0.59 in 2002-2011, with a 40% price difference, on average. Ten differentiating value attributes were identified and MCDA was applied to test the impact of three pricing policy scenarios. With the condition of implementing quality consistency regulations and controls, a reduction in the price gap between high-quality off-patent products (including originator and generics) seemed to be the preferred policy. Patents of many drugs will expire within the next 10 years; thus, pricing will be an issue of importance for off-patent originators and generic alternatives.

The influencing factors of China carbon price: a study based on carbon trading market in hubei province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hao; Lei, Ming

2018-02-01

For the carbon market, good trading mechanism is the basis for the healthy development of the carbon trading market. In order to explore the core problem of carbon price formation, our research explores the influencing factors of the price of carbon trading market. After the preliminary statistical analysis, our study found that Hubei Province is in the leading position among seven pilots in the carbon trading volume and the transaction, so our study of carbon price takes Hubei Province as sample of the empirical research. Multi-time series model and ARCH model analysis method are used in the research, we use the data of Hubei carbon trading pilot from June 2014 to December 2016 to carry out empirical research, the results found that industrial income, energy price, government intervention and the number of participating corporation have significant effect on the carbon price, which provides a meaningful reference for the other pilots in-depth study, as well as the construction of a national carbon trading market.

How to prevent the next Marathon Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

David, Frank S; Dixit, Richa

2018-01-01

In recent years, several drug companies have exploited U.S. regulatory policies to acquire exclusive rights to cheap therapies and substantially raise their prices, and Federal agencies and state governments are exploring various ways to prevent or punish such behavior in the future. Among these cases, however, Marathon Pharmaceuticals' handling of Emflaza (deflazacort) is unique, because the drug was previously only available abroad, and was never previously sold in the U.S. before the company obtained FDA approval for it. Thus, laws and policies designed to address price hikes on already-marketed drugs are unlikely to prevent additional Marathon-like scenarios. In this article, we describe in more detail the unique features of Emflaza compared with these other recent cases of drug price increases, determine the likelihood that similar situations will arise in the future, and explore legislative and administrative options to specifically prevent such behavior.

Multi-Agent simulation of generation capacity expansion decisions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botterud, A.; Mahalik, M.; Conzelmann, G.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we use a multi-agent simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze generation expansion in the Iberian electricity market. The expansion model simulates generation investment decisions of decentralized generating companies (GenCos) interacting in a complex, multidimensional environment. A probabilistic dispatch algorithm calculates prices and profits for new candidate units in different future states of the system. Uncertainties in future load, hydropower conditions, and competitorspsila actions are represented in a scenario tree, and decision analysis is used to identify the optimal expansion decision for each individual GenCo. We run the model using detailed data for the Iberian market. In a scenariomore » analysis, we look at the impact of market design variables, such as the energy price cap and carbon emission prices. We also analyze how market concentration and GenCospsila risk preferences influence the timing and choice of new generating capacity.« less

Support Tool in the Diagnosis of Sales Price of Dental Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, Raquel A. F.; Lóscio, Bernadette F.; Pinheiro, Plácido Rogério

It shows the formatting of a table of price to be used by a company is an activity that cannot be performed only empirically. The application of statistical methodologies and actuarial comes, increasingly, being used widely by companies primarily in the business of health plan. The increasing use of these techniques ensures that a manager of these companies more security and lower risk exposure while assisting them in making decisions. The aim of this paper is to present a tool for calculating the price of dental health developed in Java and PL/PgSQL.

Word of Mouth : An Agent-based Approach to Predictability of Stock Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Misawa, Tadanobu; Watanabe, Kyoko

This paper addresses how communication processes among investors affect stock prices formation, especially emerging predictability of stock prices, in financial markets. An agent based model, called the word of mouth model, is introduced for analyzing the problem. This model provides a simple, but sufficiently versatile, description of informational diffusion process and is successful in making lucidly explanation for the predictability of small sized stocks, which is a stylized fact in financial markets but difficult to resolve by traditional models. Our model also provides a rigorous examination of the under reaction hypothesis to informational shocks.

Neural basis of economic bubble behavior.

PubMed

Ogawa, A; Onozaki, T; Mizuno, T; Asamizuya, T; Ueno, K; Cheng, K; Iriki, A

2014-04-18

Throughout human history, economic bubbles have formed and burst. As a bubble grows, microeconomic behavior ceases to be constrained by realistic predictions. This contradicts the basic assumption of economics that agents have rational expectations. To examine the neural basis of behavior during bubbles, we performed functional magnetic resonance imaging while participants traded shares in a virtual stock exchange with two non-bubble stocks and one bubble stock. The price was largely deflected from the fair price in one of the non-bubble stocks, but not in the other. Their fair prices were specified. The price of the bubble stock showed a large increase and battering, as based on a real stock-market bust. The imaging results revealed modulation of the brain circuits that regulate trade behavior under different market conditions. The premotor cortex was activated only under a market condition in which the price was largely deflected from the fair price specified. During the bubble, brain regions associated with the cognitive processing that supports order decisions were identified. The asset preference that might bias the decision was associated with the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). The activity of the inferior parietal lobule (IPL) was correlated with the score of future time perspective, which would bias the estimation of future price. These regions were deemed to form a distinctive network during the bubble. A functional connectivity analysis showed that the connectivity between the DLPFC and the IPL was predominant compared with other connectivities only during the bubble. These findings indicate that uncertain and unstable market conditions changed brain modes in traders. These brain mechanisms might lead to a loss of control caused by wishful thinking, and to microeconomic bubbles that expand, on the macroscopic scale, toward bust. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, G.G.; Mayor, T.H.

This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to be used-car markets during the two energy crises of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality andmore » casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary. 17 references, 2 figures.« less

Structural Break, Stock Prices of Clean Energy Firms and Carbon Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yubao; Cai, Junyu

2018-03-01

This paper uses EU ETS carbon future price and Germany/UK clean energy firms stock indices to study the relationship between carbon market and clean energy market. By structural break test, it is found that the ‘non-stationary’ variables judged by classical unit root test do own unit roots and need taking first difference. After analysis of VAR and Granger causality test, no causal relationships are found between the two markets. However, when Hsiao’s version of causality test is employed, carbon market is found to have power in explaining the movement of stock prices of clean energy firms, and stock prices of clean energy firms also affect the carbon market.

Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

2012-12-01

In absence of of new crop varieties or significant shifts in the geography of corn production, US national corn yields variation could double by the year 2040 as a result of climate change and without adaptation this could lead the variability in US corn prices to quadruple (Diffenbaugh et al. 2012). In addition to climate induced price changes, analysis of recent commodity price spikes suggests that interventionist trade policies are partly to blame. Assuming we cannot much influence the future climate outcome, what policies can we undertake to adapt better? Can we use markets to blunt this edge? Diffenbaugh et al. find that sale of corn- ethanol for use in liquid fuel, when governed by quotas such as US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), could make US corn prices even more variable; in contrast the same food-fuel market link (we refer to it as intersectoral link) may well dampen price volatility when the sale of corn to ethanol industry is driven by higher future oil prices. The latter however comes at the cost of exposing corn prices to the greater volatility in oil markets. Similarly intervention in corn trade can make US corn prices less or more volatile by distorting international corn price transmission. A negative US corn yield shock shows that domestic corn supply falls and domestic prices to go up irrespective of whether or not markets are integrated. How much the prices go up depends on how much demand adjusts to accommodate the supply shock. Based on the forgoing analysis, one should expect that demand would adjust more readily when markets are integrated and therefore reduce the resulting price fluctuation. Simulation results confirm this response of corn markets. In terms of relative comparisons however a policy driven intersectoral integration is least effective and prices rise much more. Similarly, a positive world oil price shock makes the US oil imports expensive and with oil being used to produce gasoline blends, it increases the price of gasoline and reduces its demand. In the presence of domestic integration, ethanol production rises to substitute oil in the gasoline blend and thereby increases the corn demand and prices. However if one takes into account increase in corn price due to increased production costs (increase in oil price increases fertilizer prices - a major input into corn production) and reduced corn prices due to reduced fuel demand and therefore reduced ethanol additive demand; the prices can go either way. Our initial simulations show that they do in fact go down with mandate driven integration. This raises some more general questions: Whether integration (intersectoral and international) can be an effective strategy for adapting to climate change? And which of the four adaptation options - RFS or oil price driven domestic integration, full corn tariff liberalization or restricting tariff manipulation by partners - would be more effective in comparison to other adaptation (including no adaptation) scenarios? We implement the alternative adaptation strategies, while sampling from the same corn yield and oil price distributions and compare the resulting corn price variations to the base case where no such adaptation has been undertaken. Our initial results suggest that intersectoral integration is more effective form of adaptation than international one, but only if driven by market forces and not mandates.

78 FR 38416 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Miami International Securities Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-26

..., without limitation, options, equities, futures, derivatives, indexes, exchange traded funds, exchange...., equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures, foreign currency, and even commodities products... low as $0.05).\\13\\ \\13\\ As an example, per the CME Web site, strike prices for options on futures may...

Intermediate Term Forecasting Techniques for Management.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

of Market Efficiency", Chiras and ranaster (1978) used actual option prices to calculate implied variances of future stock returns. They found a...of F*nance, v. 2 5 , p p . 6 5 -8 1 , M a r c h 1 9 1 0 .- .... . . . 23. Chiras D. P. and Nanaster, S., "The Infcrmation Content of Otion Prices and

The Rising Price of Objectivity: Philanthropy, Government, and the Future of Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feuer, Michael J.

2016-01-01

In "The Rising Price of Objectivity," Michael J. Feuer describes what he sees as a "perfect storm" gathering in the sea of education research. He notes the convergence of three important trends: first, the rise in strategic education philanthropy; second, the decline in federal funding, in part due to ideologically contested…

77 FR 76303 - Notice of Availability of Producer Price Index (PPI) Data Users Survey

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-27

... conducted a survey of PPI data users in late 1976 through early 1977. Since that time, numerous new time series data have been introduced with the goal of fulfilling the needs of data users. This survey will... series, and identify areas for future expansion. DATES: The Producer Price Index (PPI) user survey will...

Higher cigarette prices influence cigarette purchase patterns.

PubMed

Hyland, A; Bauer, J E; Li, Q; Abrams, S M; Higbee, C; Peppone, L; Cummings, K M

2005-04-01

To examine cigarette purchasing patterns of current smokers and to determine the effects of cigarette price on use of cheaper sources, discount/generic cigarettes, and coupons. Higher cigarette prices result in decreased cigarette consumption, but price sensitive smokers may seek lower priced or tax-free cigarette sources, especially if they are readily available. This price avoidance behaviour costs states excise tax money and dampens the health impact of higher cigarette prices. Telephone survey data from 3602 US smokers who were originally in the COMMIT (community intervention trial for smoking cessation) study were analysed to assess cigarette purchase patterns, use of discount/generic cigarettes, and use of coupons. 59% reported engaging in a high price avoidance strategy, including 34% who regularly purchase from a low or untaxed venue, 28% who smoke a discount/generic cigarette brand, and 18% who report using cigarette coupons more frequently that they did five years ago. The report of engaging in a price avoidance strategy was associated with living within 40 miles of a state or Indian reservation with lower cigarette excise taxes, higher average cigarette consumption, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, and female sex. Data from this study indicate that most smokers are price sensitive and seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts.

Does reimportation reduce price differences for prescription drugs? Lessons from the European Union.

PubMed

Kyle, Margaret K; Allsbrook, Jennifer S; Schulman, Kevin A

2008-08-01

To examine the effect of parallel trade on patterns of price dispersion for prescription drugs in the European Union. Longitudinal data from an IMS Midas database of prices and units sold for drugs in 36 categories in 30 countries from 1993 through 2004. The main outcome measures were mean price differentials and other measures of price dispersion within European Union countries compared with within non-European Union countries. We identified drugs subject to parallel trade using information provided by IMS and by checking membership lists of parallel import trade associations and lists of approved parallel imports. Parallel trade was not associated with substantial reductions in price dispersion in European Union countries. In descriptive and regression analyses, about half of the price differentials exceeded 50 percent in both European Union and non-European Union countries over time, and price distributions among European Union countries did not show a dramatic change concurrent with the adoption of parallel trade. In regression analysis, we found that although price differentials decreased after 1995 in most countries, they decreased less in the European Union than elsewhere. Parallel trade for prescription drugs does not automatically reduce international price differences. Future research should explore how other regulatory schemes might lead to different results elsewhere.

Do follow-on therapeutic substitutes induce price competition between hospital medicines? Evidence from the Danish hospital sector.

PubMed

Hostenkamp, Gisela

2013-06-01

The pricing of follow-on drugs, that offer only limited health benefits over existing therapeutic alternatives, is a recurring health policy debate. This study investigates whether follow-on therapeutic substitutes create price competition between branded hospital medicines. New follow-on drugs and their incumbent therapeutic competitors were identified from Danish sales and product registration data on hospital pharmaceuticals using medically relevant criteria. We examined whether follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors, and whether incumbent competitors react to entry of follow-ons through price adjustments using a random intercept panel model. We found no evidence that follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors. Furthermore, potentially due to low sample size, we found no evidence that prices for incumbent pioneer products were significantly reduced as a reaction to competition from follow-on drugs. Competition between patented therapeutic substitutes did not seem to increase price competition and containment of pharmaceutical expenditures in the Danish hospital market. Strengthening hospitals' incentives to consider the price of alternative treatment options paired with a more active formulary management may increase price competition between therapeutic substitutes in the Danish hospital sector in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

PubMed

Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

2017-06-01

Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

PubMed

Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

2018-03-01

Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

Variation in Prices of Cardiovascular Drugs in Public and Private Pharmacies in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kandel, Nirajan; Subedi, Narayan; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-01-01

Introduction: Higher price of cardiovascular drugs is one of the reasons for high out-of-pocket expenditure in cardiovascular care. The objective of the study was to determine the price variation in commonly available cardiovascular drugs between public and private hospital pharmacies in Nepal. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 3 public and 3 private pharmacies in tertiary-level hospitals in Nepal. The price was recorded for the list of drugs commonly available in those pharmacies. A total of 23 drugs were selected for data collection. The price was recorded based on the payment receipt and price reported by surrogate customers. We defined the price variation as the difference between price of cardiovascular drugs between public hospital and private pharmacy. The price variation was expressed as percentage. Results: Price of Amlodipine 5 mg was higher by 667% in private pharmacy nearby Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH) compared to that of TUTH pharmacy. Price of Enalapril 5 mg was higher by 14.47% in Manmohan Cardio Thoracic and Vascular Transplant Centre (MCVTC) compared to nearby private pharmacy. We observed that the price of cardiovascular drugs varied significantly between hospital and private retail pharmacies in TUTH (P < .001) and MCVTC (P < .001). Conclusion: For most of the cardiovascular drugs, the price in private retail pharmacies were significantly higher than in hospital pharmacies. Future steps should be taken to establish and run own pharmacies in hospitals which would reduce the cost of medicine and thereby, increase access to medicine. PMID:28462249

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

Rare earth elements exploitation, geopolitical implications and raw materials trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chemin, Marie-Charlotte

2015-04-01

Rare earth elements (REE) correspond to seventeen elements of the periodic table. They are used in high technology, cracking, electric cars' magnet, metal alloy for batteries, and also in phone construction or ceramics for electronic card. REEs are an important resource for high technology. This project targets 16 years old students in the subject "personalized aid" and will last six weeks. The purpose of this project is to develop autonomy and research in groups for a transdisciplinary work. This project gathers knowledge in geology, geography and economics. During the first session students analyze the geology applications of the REE. They begin the analysis with learning the composition in different rocks such as basalt and diorite to make the link with crystallization. Then they compare it with adakite to understand the formation of these rocks. In the second session, they study REE exploitation. We can find them as oxides in many deposits. The principal concentrations of rare earth elements are associated with uncommon varieties of igneous rocks, such as carbonatites. They can use Qgis, to localize this high concentration. In the third session, they study the environmental costs of REE exploitation. Indeed, the exploitation produces thorium and carcinogenic toxins: sulphates, ammonia and hydrochloric acid. Processing one ton of rare earths produces 2,000 tons of toxic waste. This session focuses, first, on Baotou's region, and then on an example they are free to choose. In the fourth session, they study the geopolitical issues of REE with a focus on China. In fact this country is the largest producer of REE, and is providing 95% of the overall production. REE in China are at the center of a geopolitical strategy. In fact, China implements a sort of protectionism. Indeed, the export tax on REE is very high so, as a foreign company, it is financially attractive to establish a manufacturing subsidiary in China in order to use REE. As a matter of fact, establishing a company in China can lower the production cost (since the company buys the products used in its production at a lower price). In the fifth session, they study the raw materials trading based on the futures contracts example. A producer, to avoid a rise in prices of raw materials used in his production can use derivative products on the financial market: futures contracts for instance. This product ensures a quantity and quality for a price and a delivery date agreed upon today. Actually, producers can use a method called Fix price hedging in order to fix the price of a specific product. The main idea is to balance out the "physical position" (spot market) and the "paper position" (futures market). Even if the REE are commercialized in form of a non-perishable's oxide, the flow of the stock must be guaranteed and this is why it is important for producers to secure their supply of raw materials. In the last session, students search local companies that use REE in their production process and study their strategy on the market.

Residential water demand model under block rate pricing: A case study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Yang, Z. F.

2009-05-01

In many cities, the inconsistency between water supply and water demand has become a critical problem because of deteriorating water shortage and increasing water demand. Uniform price of residential water cannot promote the efficient water allocation. In China, block water price will be put into practice in the future, but the outcome of such regulation measure is unpredictable without theory support. In this paper, the residential water is classified by the volume of water usage based on economic rules and block water is considered as different kinds of goods. A model based on extended linear expenditure system (ELES) is constructed to simulate the relationship between block water price and water demand, which provide theoretical support for the decision-makers. Finally, the proposed model is used to simulate residential water demand under block rate pricing in Beijing.

Determining optimal selling price and lot size with process reliability and partial backlogging considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Tsu-Pang; Cheng, Mei-Chuan; Dye, Chung-Yuan; Ouyang, Liang-Yuh

2011-01-01

In this article, we extend the classical economic production quantity (EPQ) model by proposing imperfect production processes and quality-dependent unit production cost. The demand rate is described by any convex decreasing function of the selling price. In addition, we allow for shortages and a time-proportional backlogging rate. For any given selling price, we first prove that the optimal production schedule not only exists but also is unique. Next, we show that the total profit per unit time is a concave function of price when the production schedule is given. We then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price and production schedule for the proposed model. Finally, we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm and conclude this article with suggestions for possible future research.

Analysis and evaluation in the production process and equipment area of the low-cost solar array project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolf, M.; Goldman, H.

1981-01-01

The attributes of the various metallization processes were investigated. It is shown that several metallization process sequences will lead to adequate metallization for large area, high performance solar cells at a metallization add on price in the range of $6. to 12. m squared, or 4 to $.8/W(peak), assuming 15% efficiency. Conduction layer formation by thick film silver or by tin or tin/lead solder leads to metallization add-on prices significantly above the $6. to 12/m squared range c.) The wet chemical processes of electroless and electrolytic plating for strike/barrier layer and conduction layer formation, respectively, seem to be most cost effective.

Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Mark Hanley

The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

Outlooks for Wind Power in the United States: Drivers and Trends under a 2016 Policy Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Lantz, Eric; Ho, Jonathan

Over the past decade, wind power has become one of the fastest growing electricity generation sources in the United States. Despite this growth, the U.S. wind industry continues to experience year-to-year fluctuations across the manufacturing and supply chain as a result of dynamic market conditions and changing policy landscapes. Moreover, with advancing wind technologies, ever-changing fossil fuel prices, and evolving energy policies, the long-term future for wind power is highly uncertain. In this report, we present multiple outlooks for wind power in the United States, to explore the possibilities of future wind deployment. The future wind power outlooks presented relymore » on high-resolution wind resource data and advanced electric sector modeling capabilities to evaluate an array of potential scenarios of the U.S. electricity system. Scenario analysis is used to explore drivers, trends, and implications for wind power deployment over multiple periods through 2050. Specifically, we model 16 scenarios of wind deployment in the contiguous United States. These scenarios span a wide range of wind technology costs, natural gas prices, and future transmission expansion. We identify conditions with more consistent wind deployment after the production tax credit expires as well as drivers for more robust wind growth in the long run. Conversely, we highlight challenges to future wind deployment. We find that the degree to which wind technology costs decline can play an important role in future wind deployment, electric sector CO 2 emissions, and lowering allowance prices for the Clean Power Plan.« less

A Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange to Grow the Lunar Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahan, B. B. C.

2017-10-01

This paper proposes to establish a Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange in order to define and trade essential commodities that, when traded on an open exchange, improve availability, quality, price discovery, financeability, and equal access.

Network formation in a multi-asset artificial stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei; Wang, Chao

2018-04-01

A multi-asset artificial stock market is developed. In the market, stocks are assigned to a number of sectors and traded by heterogeneous investors. The mechanism of continuous double auction is employed to clear order book and form daily closed prices. Simulation results of prices at the sector level show an intra-sector similarity and inter-sector distinctiveness, and returns of individual stocks have stylized facts that are ubiquitous in the real-world stock market. We find that the market risk factor has critical impact on both network topology transition and connection formation, and that sector risk factors account for the formation of intra-sector links and sector-based local interaction. In addition, the number of community in threshold-based networks is correlated negatively and positively with the value of correlation coefficients and the ratio of intra-sector links, which are respectively determined by intensity of sector risk factors and the number of sectors.

Trends in beverage prices following the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Barbados.

PubMed

Alvarado, Miriam; Kostova, Deliana; Suhrcke, Marc; Hambleton, Ian; Hassell, Trevor; Samuels, T Alafia; Adams, Jean; Unwin, Nigel

2017-12-01

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014-2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to <1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Journal pricing issues: an economic perspective.

PubMed Central

Hafner, A W; Podsadecki, T J; Whitely, W P

1990-01-01

Scientific journal prices have increased markedly in the past two decades, outpacing inflation by severalfold. Such increases challenge the librarian's ability to manage acquisitions resources effectively and threaten the mission of the health sciences library as a resource for present and future scientific information needs. Explanations for serial price increases vary with the point of view considered. Publishers, librarians, faculty, and consumers of scientific information perceive the situation differently. This paper provides an economic analysis of each group's views. Particular emphasis is given to the aspects of journal publishing and pricing that foster price increases. In addition, the paper examines the problems of dual-pricing structures and narrowly focused journals that cater to subspecialties of medicine. Suggested responses to subscription rate increases are offered to curtail further increases and to avoid the potential detrimental effects of reduced library collections. Since one of the underpinnings of education is threatened by reductions in library collections, actions must be taken by publishers, librarians, faculty, and professional associations to ameliorate the present situation and to limit additional increases in serial prices. PMID:2203496

How Many Pixels Does It Take to Make a Good 4"×6" Print? Pixel Count Wars Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kriss, Michael A.

Digital still cameras emerged following the introduction of the Sony Mavica analog prototype camera in 1981. These early cameras produced poor image quality and did not challenge film cameras for overall quality. By 1995 digital still cameras in expensive SLR formats had 6 mega-pixels and produced high quality images (with significant image processing). In 2005 significant improvement in image quality was apparent and lower prices for digital still cameras (DSCs) started a rapid decline in film usage and film camera sells. By 2010 film usage was mostly limited to professionals and the motion picture industry. The rise of DSCs was marked by a “pixel war” where the driving feature of the cameras was the pixel count where even moderate cost, ˜120, DSCs would have 14 mega-pixels. The improvement of CMOS technology pushed this trend of lower prices and higher pixel counts. Only the single lens reflex cameras had large sensors and large pixels. The drive for smaller pixels hurt the quality aspects of the final image (sharpness, noise, speed, and exposure latitude). Only today are camera manufactures starting to reverse their course and producing DSCs with larger sensors and pixels. This paper will explore why larger pixels and sensors are key to the future of DSCs.

Consumers' perceptions of preconception health.

PubMed

Squiers, Linda; Mitchell, Elizabeth W; Levis, Denise M; Lynch, Molly; Dolina, Suzanne; Margolis, Marjorie; Scales, Monica; Kish-Doto, Julia

2013-01-01

To inform the development of a preconception health (PCH) social marketing plan, we conducted qualitative research with prospective consumers. We present formative findings based on the four Ps of social marketing: product, price, promotion, and place. We conducted focus groups with 10 groups of women in Atlanta, Georgia, in fall 2010. We classified women aged 18 to 44 into five groups based on their pregnancy plans, and then further segmented the groups based on socioeconomic status for a total of 10 groups. The focus group guide was designed to elicit participants' responses about the product, price, promotion, and placement of PCH. We used NVivo 9 software to analyze focus group data. Women planning a pregnancy in the future had different perspectives on PCH as a product than women not planning a pregnancy. Barriers to PCH included lack of social support, addiction, and lack of awareness about PCH. Participants preferred to think of PCH behaviors as "promoting" a healthy baby rather than preventing an unhealthy birth outcome. Many women in the focus groups preferred to hear PCH messages from a health care provider, among other channels. The results from this research will inform the development of a social marketing plan for PCH and the development of concepts that will be tested with consumers to determine their viability for use in a national campaign.

77 FR 58600 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... approving expansion of STO Program)[sic]. \\9\\ These include, without limitation, options, equities, futures... hedging strategies across various investment platforms (e.g. equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures... Web site, strike prices for options on futures may be at an interval of $.05, $.10, and $.25 per...

76 FR 50276 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; OneChicago, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-12

... for Four Decimal Point Pricing for Block and Exchange for Physical (``EFPs'') Trades August 8, 2011... block trades and the futures component of EFP trades to be traded/priced in four decimals points. Regular trades (non-block or non EFP) will continue to trade in only two decimal points. The text of the...

75 FR 170 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change for the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-04

... Bloomberg. Reuters and Bloomberg provide at no charge on their Web sites delayed information regarding the spot price of gold and last sale prices of gold futures, as well as information about news and developments in the gold market. Reuters and Bloomberg also offer a professional service to subscribers for a...

Achievements in the utilzation of poplar wood : guideposts for the future : [abstract

Treesearch

John J. Balatinecz; Andre Leclercq; David E. Kretschmann

2000-01-01

Poplar wood is suitable and is utilized for a broad range of forest products worldwide. The utilization of any species is governed by a number of factors, such as basic wood properties, overall quality, quantity and price of the resource, available processing technologies, local as well as international market conditions for the products, and the availability and price...

"I'm Glad I Was Designed": Un/Doing Gender and Class in Susan Price's "Odin Trilogy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lehtonen, Sanna

2012-01-01

Susan Price's "Odin Trilogy" (2005-2008) is a juvenile science fiction series that depicts a future where class relations have become polarised due to late capitalist and technological developments and where ways of doing gender continue to be strongly connected with class. The society in the novels is based on slavery: people are either…

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Price Determination of General Aviation, Helicopter, and Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1978-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for general aviation, helicopter, and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly as to how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

Price-Weight Relationships of General Aviation, Helicopters, Transport Aircraft and Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1981-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's cost to manufacture, economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for sailplanes, general aviation, agriculture, helicopter, business and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Environmental Response Laboratory Network (ERLN) Basic Ordering Agreement Example

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A BOA is a written instrument of understanding between EPA and a laboratory that contains terms and clauses applying to all future orders, a description of services to be provided, and methods for pricing, issuing, and delivering future orders.

Economic study of future aircraft fuels (1970-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1972-01-01

Future aircraft fuels are evaluated in terms of fuel resource availability and pricing, processing methods, and economic projections over the period 1970-2000. Liquefied hydrogen, methane and propane are examined as potential turbine engine aircraft fuels relative to current JP fuel.

Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Di; Wang, Jun

2012-10-01

The continuum percolation system is developed to model a random stock price process in this work. Recent empirical research has demonstrated various statistical features of stock price changes, the financial model aiming at understanding price fluctuations needs to define a mechanism for the formation of the price, in an attempt to reproduce and explain this set of empirical facts. The continuum percolation model is usually referred to as a random coverage process or a Boolean model, the local interaction or influence among traders is constructed by the continuum percolation, and a cluster of continuum percolation is applied to define the cluster of traders sharing the same opinion about the market. We investigate and analyze the statistical behaviors of normalized returns of the price model by some analysis methods, including power-law tail distribution analysis, chaotic behavior analysis and Zipf analysis. Moreover, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from January 1997 to July 2011, and the comparisons of return behaviors between the actual data and the simulation data are exhibited.

Determinants of branded prescription medicine prices in OECD countries.

PubMed

Kanavos, Panos G; Vandoros, Sotiris

2011-07-01

This paper investigates the determinants of the prices of branded prescription medicines across different regulatory settings and health care systems, taking into account their launch date, patent status, market dynamics and the regulatory context in which they diffuse. By using volume-weighted price indices, this paper analyzes price levels for a basket of prescription medicines and their differences in 15 OECD countries, including the United States and key European countries, the impact of distribution margins and generic entry on public prices and to what extent innovation, by means of introducing newer classes of medicines, contributes to price formation across countries. In doing so, the paper seeks to understand the factors that contribute to the existing differences in prices across countries, whether at an ex-factory or a retail level. The evidence shows that retail prices for branded prescription medicines in the United States are higher than those in key European and other OECD countries, but not as high as widely thought. Large differences in prices are mainly observed at an ex-factory level, but these are not the prices that consumers and payers pay. Cross-country differences in retail prices are actually not as high as expected and, when controlling for exchange rates, these differences can be even smaller. Product age has a significant effect on prices in all settings after having controlled for other factors. Price convergence is observed across countries for newer prescription medicines compared with older medicines. There is no evidence that originator brand prices fall after generic entry in the United States, a phenomenon known as the 'generics paradox'. Finally, distribution and taxes are important determinants of retail prices in several of the study countries. To the extent that remuneration of the distribution chain and taxation are directly and proportionately linked to product prices this is likely to persist over time.

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

2007-01-01

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

PubMed

Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

2013-01-01

Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory.

PubMed

Bao, Wei; Yue, Jun; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day's closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance.

Does Reimportation Reduce Price Differences for Prescription Drugs? Lessons from the European Union

PubMed Central

Kyle, Margaret K; Allsbrook, Jennifer S; Schulman, Kevin A

2008-01-01

Objective To examine the effect of parallel trade on patterns of price dispersion for prescription drugs in the European Union. Data Sources Longitudinal data from an IMS Midas database of prices and units sold for drugs in 36 categories in 30 countries from 1993 through 2004. Study Design The main outcome measures were mean price differentials and other measures of price dispersion within European Union countries compared with within non-European Union countries. Data Collection/Extraction Methods We identified drugs subject to parallel trade using information provided by IMS and by checking membership lists of parallel import trade associations and lists of approved parallel imports. Principal Findings Parallel trade was not associated with substantial reductions in price dispersion in European Union countries. In descriptive and regression analyses, about half of the price differentials exceeded 50 percent in both European Union and non-European Union countries over time, and price distributions among European Union countries did not show a dramatic change concurrent with the adoption of parallel trade. In regression analysis, we found that although price differentials decreased after 1995 in most countries, they decreased less in the European Union than elsewhere. Conclusions Parallel trade for prescription drugs does not automatically reduce international price differences. Future research should explore how other regulatory schemes might lead to different results elsewhere. PMID:18355258

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

PubMed Central

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-01-01

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

PubMed

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Study on Bidding Strategy and Market Clearing Price in Electric Power Day-ahead Market using Market Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Tetsuo; Kadoya, Toshihisa

In an electric power day-ahead market, market prices are not always cleared at marginal cost caused by the strategic bidding of generators. This paper presents the results of day-ahead market simulation that analyzes profits depending upon bidding strategies in an electric power day-ahead market. It is clarified that MCP (Market Clearing Price) is easily managed by only one player and does not easily decline after it has gone up once. Moreover the mutual interference among day-ahead markets, future markets, increase of generators, etc. are also discussed.

Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

2002-01-01

There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government contribution, tax-breaks, loan guarantees, etc. The optimization performed here is for a 3rd Generation RLV program. The economic metric being optimized (maximized) is Net Present Value (NPV) based upon a given company financial structure and cost of capital assumptions. Such an optimization process demands more sophisticated optimizers and can result in non-unique solutions/local minimums if using gradient-based optimization. Domain spanning/evolutionary algorithms are used to obtain the optimized solution in the design space. These capabilities generally increase model calculation time but incorporate realistic pricing portfolios than just assuming one unified price for all launch markets. This analysis is conducted with CABAM running in Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter 4.0 collaborative design environment using the SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) OptWorks suite of optimization components.

Follow Your Heart: How Is Willingness to Pay Formed under Multiple Anchors?

PubMed Central

Lin, Chien-Huang; Chen, Ming

2017-01-01

In sales, a common promotional tactic is to supplement a required purchase (i.e., a focal product) by offering a free or discounted product (i.e., a supplementary product). The present research examines the contextual factors driving consumer evaluations of the supplementary product after the promotion has been terminated. Two experiments are used to demonstrate that consumers use multiple anchors to determine the value of a supplementary product. Consumers use other types of price information, such as the internal reference price (IRP), promotional price, and original price of the supplementary product, as anchors to adjust their willingness to pay. Among the multiple anchors, the consumer’s IRP is not only the crucial anchor to estimate the willingness to pay but also the criterion to determine whether other price information can serve as anchors. Price information, such as the promotional and original price of the supplementary product, which is higher (lower) than the IRP, will increase (decrease) the willingness to pay. However, these anchors are only employed when the price information is considered to be plausible. Assimilation and contrast effects occur when the IRP is used by consumers as a criterion to judge the reasonableness of other anchors. When the external price information belongs (does not belong) to consumers’ distribution of IRP, assimilation (contrast) effects occur, and consumers will regard the external reference price (ERP) to be a plausible (implausible) price. Limitations and future avenues for research are also discussed. PMID:29312098

Follow Your Heart: How Is Willingness to Pay Formed under Multiple Anchors?

PubMed

Lin, Chien-Huang; Chen, Ming

2017-01-01

In sales, a common promotional tactic is to supplement a required purchase (i.e., a focal product) by offering a free or discounted product (i.e., a supplementary product). The present research examines the contextual factors driving consumer evaluations of the supplementary product after the promotion has been terminated. Two experiments are used to demonstrate that consumers use multiple anchors to determine the value of a supplementary product. Consumers use other types of price information, such as the internal reference price (IRP), promotional price, and original price of the supplementary product, as anchors to adjust their willingness to pay. Among the multiple anchors, the consumer's IRP is not only the crucial anchor to estimate the willingness to pay but also the criterion to determine whether other price information can serve as anchors. Price information, such as the promotional and original price of the supplementary product, which is higher (lower) than the IRP, will increase (decrease) the willingness to pay. However, these anchors are only employed when the price information is considered to be plausible. Assimilation and contrast effects occur when the IRP is used by consumers as a criterion to judge the reasonableness of other anchors. When the external price information belongs (does not belong) to consumers' distribution of IRP, assimilation (contrast) effects occur, and consumers will regard the external reference price (ERP) to be a plausible (implausible) price. Limitations and future avenues for research are also discussed.

Increasing Competition for Spares within AFLC (Air Force Logistics Center). Revision.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-30

Managers 45 On Competing the Production of Weapon Systems 46 Sole Source and Competitive Price Trends in Spare Parts Acquisition 47 Controlled...future directions in research and policy . 3- TOPIC: Acquisition TYPE: AFIT Thesis TITLE: Spares Acquisition Integrated with Production and Its...evaluate Air Force management policies , procedures, practices, and controls over the acquisition and pricing of spare parts. Specific objectives

The future of rare earth elements—will these high-tech industry elements continue in short supply?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Keith R.

2011-01-01

* REE will continue to find increasing use due to their unique properties. * There is a realistic possibility around 2015-2016 of sufficient REE capacity to meet demand under conditions of healthy price competition. * REE supplies will be tight and prices high for a few years. * There is significant downside risk that newly developed mines will not perform as planned.

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Climate regulation enhances the value of second generation biofuel technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.; Tyner, W.

2014-12-01

Commercial scale implementation of second generation (2G) biofuels has long been 'just over the horizon - perhaps a decade away'. However, with recent innovations, and higher oil prices, we appear to be on the verge of finally seeing commercial scale implementations of cellulosic to liquid fuel conversion technologies. Interest in this technology derives from many quarters. Environmentalists see this as a way of reducing our carbon footprint, however, absent a global market for carbon emissions, private firms will not factor this into their investment decisions. Those interested in poverty and nutrition see this as a channel for lessening the biofuels' impact on food prices. But what is 2G technology worth to society? How valuable are prospective improvements in this technology? And how are these valuations affected by future uncertainties, including climate regulation, climate change impacts, and energy prices? This paper addresses all of these questions. We employ FABLE, a dynamic optimization model for the world's land resources which characterizes the optimal long run path for protected natural lands, managed forests, crop and livestock land use, energy extraction and biofuels over the period 2005-2105. By running this model twice for each future state of the world - once with 2G biofuels technology available and once without - we measure the contribution of the technology to global welfare. Given the uncertainty in how these technologies are likely to evolve, we consider a range cost estimates - from optimistic to pessimistic. In addition to technological uncertainty, there is great uncertainty in the conditions characterizing our baseline for the 21st century. For each of the 2G technology scenarios, we therefore also consider a range of outcomes for key drivers of global land use, including: population, income, oil prices, climate change impacts and climate regulation. We find that the social valuation of 2G technologies depends critically on climate change regulations and future oil prices. In the base case with no climate policy and higher oil prices, the value of second generation biofuels is roughly $8 billion. With stringent climate change regulations in place, 2G biofuels are worth about fifty percent more.

Effects of fundamentals acquisition and strategy switch on stock price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

2018-02-01

An agent-based artificial stock market is developed to simulate trading behavior of investors. In the market, acquisition and employment of information about fundamentals and strategy switch are investigated to explain stock price dynamics. Investors could obtain the information from both market and neighbors resided on their social networks. Depending on information status and performances of different strategies, an informed investor may switch to the strategy of fundamentalist. This in turn affects the information acquisition process, since fundamentalists are more inclined to search and spread the information than chartists. Further investigation into price dynamics generated from three typical networks, i.e. regular lattice, small-world network and random graph, are conducted after general relation between network structures and price dynamics is revealed. In each network, integrated effects of different combinations of information efficiency and switch intensity are investigated. Results have shown that, along with increasing switch intensity, market and social information efficiency play different roles in the formation of price distortion, standard deviation and kurtosis of returns.

Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

2005-05-01

This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

Can hydro-economic river basin models simulate water shadow prices under asymmetric access?

PubMed

Kuhn, A; Britz, W

2012-01-01

Hydro-economic river basin models (HERBM) based on mathematical programming are conventionally formulated as explicit 'aggregate optimization' problems with a single, aggregate objective function. Often unintended, this format implicitly assumes that decisions on water allocation are made via central planning or functioning markets such as to maximize social welfare. In the absence of perfect water markets, however, individually optimal decisions by water users will differ from the social optimum. Classical aggregate HERBMs cannot simulate that situation and thus might be unable to describe existing institutions governing access to water and might produce biased results for alternative ones. We propose a new solution format for HERBMs, based on the format of the mixed complementarity problem (MCP), where modified shadow price relations express spatial externalities resulting from asymmetric access to water use. This new problem format, as opposed to commonly used linear (LP) or non-linear programming (NLP) approaches, enables the simultaneous simulation of numerous 'independent optimization' decisions by multiple water users while maintaining physical interdependences based on water use and flow in the river basin. We show that the alternative problem format allows the formulation HERBMs that yield more realistic results when comparing different water management institutions.

Multi-indication and Combination Pricing and Reimbursement of Pharmaceuticals: Opportunities for Improved Health Care through Faster Uptake of New Innovations.

PubMed

Persson, Ulf; Norlin, J M

2018-04-01

Many pharmaceuticals are effective in multiple indications and the degree of effectiveness may differ. A product-based pricing and reimbursement system with a single price per product is insufficient to reflect the variable values between different indications. The objective of this article is to present examples of actual pricing and reimbursement decisions using current value-based pricing in Sweden and to discuss their implications and possible solutions. The value of several cancer drugs was estimated for various indications based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 million SEK (EUR 104,000) per QALY gained. For some drugs, the estimated value was higher than the drug acquisition cost in several indications, whilst in others, the estimated value was lower than the drug acquisition cost. Drugs used in combination present a special case. If a drug prolongs survival and consequently also a continued use of the anchor drug, the combination use may not be cost effective even at a zero price. In a product-based pricing and reimbursement system, patients may not get access to drugs or access may be delayed and manufacturers may be discouraged to invest in future indications. To overcome these issues, there are several approaches to link price and value. One approach is a "weighted-average" price based on an average of the value across all indications. Another is "multi-indication pricing," which enables price differentiation between indications. However, there are several barriers for applying multi-indication pricing and reimbursement schemes. One barrier is the lack of existing administrative infrastructure to track patients' indications.

Preliminary appraisal of hydrogen and methane fuel in a Mach 2.7 supersonic transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlow, J. B., Jr.; Weber, R. J.; Civinskas, K. C.

1972-01-01

The higher heating value of hydrogen relative to JP fuel is estimated to reduce fuel weight by three fold and gross weight by 40 percent for comparable designed airplanes of equal payload and range. Engine design parameters were varied to determine the influence of lower noise goals on gross weight and direct operating cost. At current fuel prices, the DOC of a hydrogen airplane would be much higher than that of a JP airplane. A methane airplane could offer an 8.5-percent lower KOC than JP. But future shortages may escalate the prices of both JP and methane, whereas the price of hydrogen manufactured hydrolytically could be reduced from present levels. If in the future all three fuels are postulated to have equal costs per unit of energy, the DOC for hydrogen could be as much as 20 percent below that for JP on the reference 4000-nautical-mile mission. Longer ranges or lower noise requirements would improve the advantage of hydrogen.

Curriculum Reviews.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riley, Joseph P.

1983-01-01

Reviews "Earthquakes and Volcanoes" (grades 3-6), "Metric Football" (a game), and "Happy Metrics I and II" (grades 4-6). Includes format, nature of activities, source, price, and reviewer's comments. (JN)

What should be done about policy on alcohol pricing and promotions? Australian experts' views of policy priorities: a qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Fogarty, Andrea S; Chapman, Simon

2013-06-25

Alcohol policy priorities in Australia have been set by the National Preventative Health Task Force, yet significant reform has not occurred. News media coverage of these priorities has not reported public health experts as in agreement and Government has not acted upon the legislative recommendations made. We investigate policy experts' views on alcohol policy priorities with a view to establishing levels of accord and providing suggestions for future advocates. We conducted semi-structured in depth interviews with alcohol policy experts and advocates around Australia. Open-ended questions examined participants' thoughts on existing policy recommendations, obvious policy priorities and specifically, the future of national reforms to price and promotions policies. All transcripts were analysed for major themes and points of agreement or disagreement. Twenty one alcohol policy experts agreed that pricing policies are a top national priority and most agreed that "something should be done" about alcohol advertising. Volumetric taxation and minimum pricing were regarded as the most important price policies, yet differences emerged in defining the exact form of a proposed volumetric tax. Important differences in perspective emerged regarding alcohol promotions, with lack of agreement about the preferred form regulations should take, where to start and who the policy should be directed at. Very few discussed online advertising and social networks. Despite existing policy collaborations, a clear 'cut through' message is yet to be endorsed by all alcohol control advocates. There is a need to articulate and promote in greater detail the specifics of policy reforms to minimum pricing, volumetric taxation and restrictions on alcohol advertising, particularly regarding sporting sponsorships and new media.

What should be done about policy on alcohol pricing and promotions? Australian experts’ views of policy priorities: a qualitative interview study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Alcohol policy priorities in Australia have been set by the National Preventative Health Task Force, yet significant reform has not occurred. News media coverage of these priorities has not reported public health experts as in agreement and Government has not acted upon the legislative recommendations made. We investigate policy experts’ views on alcohol policy priorities with a view to establishing levels of accord and providing suggestions for future advocates. Methods We conducted semi-structured in depth interviews with alcohol policy experts and advocates around Australia. Open-ended questions examined participants’ thoughts on existing policy recommendations, obvious policy priorities and specifically, the future of national reforms to price and promotions policies. All transcripts were analysed for major themes and points of agreement or disagreement. Results Twenty one alcohol policy experts agreed that pricing policies are a top national priority and most agreed that “something should be done” about alcohol advertising. Volumetric taxation and minimum pricing were regarded as the most important price policies, yet differences emerged in defining the exact form of a proposed volumetric tax. Important differences in perspective emerged regarding alcohol promotions, with lack of agreement about the preferred form regulations should take, where to start and who the policy should be directed at. Very few discussed online advertising and social networks. Conclusions Despite existing policy collaborations, a clear ‘cut through’ message is yet to be endorsed by all alcohol control advocates. There is a need to articulate and promote in greater detail the specifics of policy reforms to minimum pricing, volumetric taxation and restrictions on alcohol advertising, particularly regarding sporting sponsorships and new media. PMID:23800324

Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles

PubMed Central

Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P. Read; Camerer, Colin F.

2014-01-01

Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations—price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation. PMID:25002476

Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles.

PubMed

Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P Read; Camerer, Colin F

2014-07-22

Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations--price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation.

Auction-theoretic analyses of the first offshore wind energy auction in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreiss, J.; Ehrhart, K.-M.; Hanke, A.-K.

2017-11-01

The first offshore wind energy auction in Germany led to a striking result. The average award price was 0.44 ct/kWh and even more interesting, 3 out of 4 awarded projects had a strike price of 0.0 ct/kWh. That implies that those projects will only receive the actual wholesale market price for electricity as revenue. Although there has been a strong decline in costs of offshore wind projects, such a result is still surprising. We analyzed this result auction-theoretically and showed how the auction design and the market environment can explain part of the outcome. However, another aspect of the explanation is the high risk that the awarded bidders take regarding the future development of both the project costs and the wholesale market price.

Oil prices in a new light

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.

1994-05-01

For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factualmore » figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period.« less

Paying the price: a cross-sectional survey of Australian socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers' responses to hypothetical cigarette price rises.

PubMed

Guillaumier, Ashleigh; Bonevski, Billie; Paul, Christine; D'Este, Catherine; Doran, Christopher; Siahpush, Mohammad

2014-03-01

Increases in tobacco taxation can lead to reductions in tobacco consumption and prevalence of use across social groups. However, use of price-minimisation strategies to manage current and future tobacco use and the role of financial stress is less understood. This study aimed to measure the effect of cigarette price increases on price-minimisation strategy endorsement and financial stress among socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers. Community service organisation welfare recipients in NSW, Australia completed a touchscreen survey. Smoking history, financial stress, highest price to quit and responses to hypothetical cigarette price increases were assessed. Participants were 354 smokers (response rate = 79%). Most participants received income from a government pension (95%), earned

Nonlinear Pricing in Drug Benefits and Medication Use: The Case of Statin Compliance in Medicare Part D

PubMed Central

Jung, Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger; McBean, A Marshall

2014-01-01

Objective To examine how enrollees' statin compliance responds to expected prices in Medicare Part D, which features a nonlinear price schedule due to a coverage gap. Data Sources/Study Setting Prescription Drug Event data for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan enrollees in 2008 who did not receive a low-income subsidy. Study Design We analyze statin compliance prior to the coverage gap, where the “effective price” is higher than the actual copayment for drugs because consumers anticipate that more spending will make them more likely to reach the gap. We construct each enrollee's effective price as her expected price at the end of the year, which is the weighted average between pre-gap and in-gap copayments with the weight being the predicted probability of hitting the gap. Compliance is defined as at least 80 percent of days covered. Principal Findings Part D enrollees' pre-gap statin compliance decreases by 3.7–4.7 percentage points for a $10 increase in the effective price. Conclusion The presence of a coverage gap decreases statin compliance prior to the gap, suggesting that incorporating expected future prices is important to assess the full impact of cost sharing on drug compliance under nonlinear price schedules. PMID:24354765

Price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer: findings from a US pilot study.

PubMed

French, Michael Thomas; Browntaylor, Didra; Bluthenthal, Ricky Neville

2006-05-01

Our objective is to estimate the relative price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer (MLB), regular beer, hard liquor, and a combined group of all other alcoholic beverages. Three hundred and twenty-nine alcohol consumers (mostly male) in South-Central Los Angeles answered a series of questions pertaining to expected consumption responses to hypothetical price increases. We found that based on a 10% price increase, the mean price elasticity of demand (% change in quantity demanded / % change in price) was -0.79 for MLB drinkers, -1.14 for regular beer drinkers, -1.11 for hard liquor drinkers, and -1.69 for the combined group of all other drinkers. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the personal characteristics significantly related to being a MLB drinker were older age, not working, being homeless, and a daily drinker. Daily (or nearly daily) drinkers were more likely to be married, earning lower incomes, and hard liquor drinkers. This study is the first to investigate the price elasticity of demand for MLB drinkers and other heavy alcohol consumers in poor urban neighborhoods of the US. Future research can use the methods from this pilot study to more rigorously examine and compare the price sensitivity among heavy drinking groups.

Effects of regulated competition on key outcomes of care: cataract surgeries in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Heijink, Richard; Mosca, Ilaria; Westert, Gert

2013-11-01

Similar to several other countries, the Netherlands implemented market-oriented health care reforms in recent years. Previous studies raised questions on the effects of these reforms on key outcomes such as quality, costs, and prices. The empirical evidence is up to now mixed. This study looked at the variation in prices, volume, and quality of cataract surgeries since the introduction of price competition in 2006. We found no price convergence over time and constant price differences between hospitals. Quality indicators generally showed positive results in cataract care, though the quality and scope of the indicators was suboptimal at this stage. Furthermore, we found limited between-hospital variation in quality and there was no clear-cut relation between prices and quality. Volume of cataract care strongly increased in the period studied. These findings indicate that health insurers may not have been able to drive prices down, make trade-offs between price and quality, and selectively contract health care without usable quality information. Positive results coming out from the 2006 reform should not be taken for granted. Looking forward, future research on similar topics and with newer data should clarify the extent to which these findings can be generalized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-07-01

Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-01-01

Recent price spikes1,2 have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades3,4. However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors5,6, which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change. PMID:23243468

The effect of the implementation of low price medicine policy on medicine price in China: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Guan, Xiaodong; Yang, Mingchun; Man, Chunxia; Tian, Ye; Shi, Luwen

2018-04-30

In an effort to relieve the pressure of drug shortages, the Chinese government implemented Low-price Medicines (LPM) policy to raise the price cap in July 2014. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the implementation of this policy on drug price in China. Price data of 491 LPM, including 218 low-price chemical medicines (LPCM) and 273 low-price traditional Chinese medicines (LPTCM), were collected from 699 hospitals. We used interrupted time series design to identify the variation of monthly Laspeyres Indexes (LI) and Paasche Indexes (PI) for LPM, LPCM, and LPTCM. The result demonstrated that although LPM expenditures increased, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures fell from 3.6% to 3.2%. After the implementation of LPM policy, there was a significant increasing trend in LPM-PI, LPCM-PI, and LPTCM-PI. The trend in LPM-LI and LPCM-LI was found from descending to rising. However, for LPTCM, the trend in the LI remained to decrease after the policy implementation. Despite the LPM policy had an increasing impact on the LPM drug price, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures did not increase. More efforts are needed in the future to promote the rational drug use in China. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Medicine prices, availability, and affordability in the Shaanxi Province in China: implications for the future.

PubMed

Jiang, Minghuan; Zhou, Zhongliang; Wu, Lina; Shen, Qian; Lv, Bing; Wang, Xiao; Yang, Shimin; Fang, Yu

2015-02-01

In 2009, China implemented the National Essential Medicines System (NEMS) to improve access to high-quality low-cost essential medicines. To measure the prices, availability and affordability of medicines in China following the implementation of the NEMS. 120 public hospitals and 120 private pharmacies in ten cities in Shaanxi Province, Western China. The standardized methodology developed by the World Health Organization and Health Action International was used to collect data on prices and availability of 49 medicines. Median price ratio; availability as a percentage; cost of course of treatment in days' wages of the lowest-paid government workers. In the public hospitals, originator brands (OBs) were procured at 8.89 times the international reference price, more than seven times higher than the lowest-priced generics (LPGs). Patients paid 11.83 and 1.69 times the international reference prices for OBs and generics respectively. A similar result was observed in the private pharmacies. The mean availabilities of OBs and LPGs were 7.1 and 20.0 % in the public hospitals, and 12.6 and 29.2 % in the private pharmacies. Treatment with OBs is therefore largely unaffordable, but the affordability of the LPGs is generally good. High prices and low availability of survey medicines were observed. The affordability of generics, but not OBs, is reasonable. Effective measures should be taken to reduce medicine prices and improve availability and affordability in Shaanxi Province.

Diatomite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crangle, R.D.

2010-01-01

Information on the diatomite industry in 2009 is presented. Specifically, details on diatomite production and prices, properties, its future supply, and natural and synthetic substitutes are provided.

War-gaming application for future space systems acquisition part 2: acquisition and bidding war-gaming modeling and simulation approaches for FFP and FPIF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Tien M.; Guillen, Andy T.

2017-05-01

This paper describes cooperative and non-cooperative static Bayesian game models with complete and incomplete information for the development of optimum acquisition strategies associated with the Program and Technical Baseline (PTB) solutions obtained from Part 1 of this paper [1]. The optimum acquisition strategies discussed focus on achieving "Affordability" by incorporating contractors' bidding strategies into the government acquisition strategies for acquiring future space systems. The paper discusses System Engineering (SE) frameworks, analytical and simulation approaches and modeling for developing the optimum acquisition strategies from both the government and contractor perspectives for Firm Fixed Price (FFP) and Fixed Price Incentive Firm (FPIF) contract types.

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Real Property Price Index From Case Study Research In Istanbul/Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denli, H. H.; Koc, Z.

2015-12-01

Estimation of real properties depending on standards is difficult to apply in time and location. Regression analysis construct mathematical models which describe or explain relationships that may exist between variables. The problem of identifying price differences of properties to obtain a price index can be converted into a regression problem, and standard techniques of regression analysis can be used to estimate the index. Considering regression analysis for real estate valuation, which are presented in real marketing process with its current characteristics and quantifiers, the method will help us to find the effective factors or variables in the formation of the value. In this study, prices of housing for sale in Zeytinburnu, a district in Istanbul, are associated with its characteristics to find a price index, based on information received from a real estate web page. The associated variables used for the analysis are age, size in m2, number of floors having the house, floor number of the estate and number of rooms. The price of the estate represents the dependent variable, whereas the rest are independent variables. Prices from 60 real estates have been used for the analysis. Same price valued locations have been found and plotted on the map and equivalence curves have been drawn identifying the same valued zones as lines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendell, D.

This talk addresses the impact that future price uncertainty and current low oil and gas prices have on the conduct and management of R&D in the upstream business. Uncertainty in future prices underscores the need to develop technology that will improve our ability to reduce technical uncertainties in investment decisions, to lower all costs and to operate in a flawless way. Low current prices result in a need to be more efficient and cost conscious in everything we do, including R&D. Since the price environment provides little tolerance for mistakes, we need the best possible definition of the hydrocarbon resourcesmore » that we find before committing to development. Furthermore, we must find and define the resource at the lowest possible cost, and develop it in an efficient way that is cost effective, safe and environmentally acceptable. The vital role of research includes improving tools for reconstructing basin histories, predicting hydrocarbon generation, migration and trapping, and improving the quality of seismic data and attribute analysis while reducing acquisition cost. Improved methods for interpreting the data and for integrating it into the evaluation and decision making process also facilitates success. We need to continually strive for the competitive advantage provided by leading edge research, while making maximum use of outsourcing and leveraging to get the most out of every research dollar spent. Systematic prioritization and highgrading of our research portfolio is particularly important in achieving this balance. Exxon understands the importance of R&D to the upstream business, and we are committed to managing our resources to provide the value added research needed to address today`s needs as well as those we know will be there down the road. Exxon has been a successful player in this industry for many decades and we believe that our future success is closely tied to our ability to continually generate key research breakthroughs in an efficient way.« less

Expert views on most suitable monetary incentives on food to stimulate healthy eating.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; de Vet, Emely; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C

2010-06-01

Pricing strategies are an important component in the marketing mix and may also be useful in stimulating healthier food choices. However, due to competing interests and feasibility problems, the introduction of pricing strategies is complicated. For successfully introducing food pricing strategies, it is essential to explore incentives that are not only promising but also realizable and being approved by different sectors. We aimed to assemble a list of pricing strategies by exploring expert views using the Delphi method. Subjects included experts from academia, industry, retail, agriculture, policymakers, consumers and non-governmental organizations. Data were collected in three rounds. In round one, experts designed promising pricing strategies. Based on a time-budget model incorporating Sleep, Leisure, Occupation, Transportation and Home-based activities, these strategies were in the subsequent rounds judged on several criteria. Results were analysed using median and interquartile deviations scores. We found fair consensus levels among experts and a varied list of promising pricing strategies. The panel agreed on the potential success of offering small presents, providing price-cuts on healthy foods and discounting healthier foods more frequently. Also, it was found that experts gave higher rates to pricing strategies for which the implementation responsibilities could be placed elsewhere. The resulted list of promising monetary incentives is an essential first step for the future design of pricing strategies. Following this study, it is important to determine how to make solid agreements on responsibility and implementation issues. Also, consumer perceptions regarding the proposed pricing strategies should be studied.

The Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy Scripts: Prescription Drug Pricing.

PubMed

Sumida, Wesley K; Taniguchi, Ronald; Juarez, Deborah Taira

2016-01-01

Prescription drugs have reduced morbidity and mortality and improved the quality of life of millions of Americans. Yet, concerns over drug price increases loom. Drug spending has risen relatively slowly over the past decade because many of the most popular brand-name medicines lost patent protection. In the near future, there will be fewer low-cost generics coming into the market to offset the rising prices of brand-name drugs. Drug expenditures are influenced by both volume and price. This article focuses on how drug prices are set in the United States and current trends. Drug prices are determined through an extremely complicated set of interactions between pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care organizations, hospitals, chain stores, and consumers. The process differs depending on the type of drug and place of delivery. Rising drug prices have come under increased scrutiny due to increased cost inflation and because many price increases come as a result of mergers and acquisitions of generic drug companies or changes in ownership of brand name drug manufacturers. Other countries have reigned in drug prices by negotiating with or regulating pharmaceutical manufacturers. The best long-term solution to rising drug prices is yet to be determined but the United States will continue to debate this issue and the discussions will get more heated if drug expenditures continue to rise at a rapid rate (ie, increasing 13% in 2014 from the previous year).

Economic rate of discount and estimating cost benefit of viral immunisation programmes.

PubMed

West, R R

1999-01-01

Many individual and societal decisions over purchase (or investment) involve consideration of timing, in that either the price may be paid now and the benefit enjoyed some time in the future or the converse the benefit enjoyed now and the price paid later. Since most individuals generally prefer the present to the future, economic theory has conventionally discounted future costs or benefits to estimate 'net present values'. The rationale for this is principally based on future uncertainty. In recent years, economists have turned their attention to valuing health as an economic 'good'. Observations of individual behaviour would imply that individuals discount future health, as other potential benefits, mostly because there is some uncertainty about their futures. Although economic theory is strongly predicated on the 'sovereignty of the individual', it does not necessarily follow that society discounts the future as do individuals, since for society the future is not so uncertain. Society's endorsement of many public health and preventive medicine objectives, which seek health gains in the future (rather than the present), imply that society's rate of discount may be appreciably lower than that of individuals. In immunisation, arguably one of the most effective of preventive measures, there is the additional benefit to others attributable to herd immunity. This paper argues that the future health gains for society arising from immunisation should not be underestimated by application of inappropriate discounting.

Gender differences in alcohol demand: a systematic review of the role of prices and taxes.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-10-01

Gender differences in drinking patterns are potentially important for public policies, especially policies that rely extensively on higher alcohol taxes and prices. This paper presents a systematic review of alcohol prices and gender differences in drinking and heavy drinking by adults and young adults. Starting with a database of 578 studies of alcohol demand and other outcomes, 15 studies are reviewed of adult drinking including discussion of samples, measurement issues, econometric models, special variables, and key empirical results. A similar discussion is presented for eight studies of drinking by young adults, ages 18-26 years. Four conclusions are obtained from the review. First, adult men have less elastic demands compared with women. Second, there is little or no price response by heavy-drinking adults, regardless of gender. Third, although the sample is small, price might be important for drinking participation by young adults. Fourth, the results strongly suggest that heavy drinking by young adults, regardless of gender, is not easily dissuaded by higher prices. Policy implications, primary study limitations, and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2010-08-01

In this article, we investigated the multifractality and its underlying formation mechanisms in international crude oil markets, namely, Brent and WTI, which are the most important oil pricing benchmarks globally. We attempt to find the answers to the following questions: (1) Are those different markets multifractal? (2) What are the dynamical causes for multifractality in those markets (if any)? To answer these questions, we applied both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal singular spectrum analysis (MF-SSA) based on the partition function, two widely used multifractality detecting methods. We found that both markets exhibit multifractal properties by means of these methods. Furthermore, in order to identify the underlying formation mechanisms of multifractal features, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation by shuffling the original time series; thus, we identified that the causes of the multifractality are influenced mainly by a nonlinear temporal correlation mechanism instead of a non-Gaussian distribution. At last, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half multifractal spectra, we found that the dynamics of the large price fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones. Our main contribution is that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractality in the markets, but also the sources of multifractality and plausible explanations to current literature; furthermore, we investigated the different dynamical price behaviors influenced by large and small price fluctuations.

Enabling Technologies for Unified Life-Cycle Engineering of Structural Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-22

representations for entities in the ULCE system for unambiguous, reliable, and efficient retrieval, manipulation, and transfer of data. Develop a rapid analysis...approaches to these functions. It is reasonable to assume that program budgets for future systems will be more restrictive and that fixed- price contracting...enemy threats, economics, and politics. The requirements are voluminous and may stipulate firm fixed- price proposals with detailed schedules. At this

Weapon Acquisition Program Outcomes and Efforts to Reform DOD’s Acquisition Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-09

portfolio’s total estimated acquisition cost. 11. The equity prices of contractors delivering the ten costliest programs performed well relative to broad...cost growth. • In a constrained funding environment, unforeseen cost increases limit investment choices. The equity prices of the contractors ...remain profitable well into the future • Five publicly-traded defense contractors are developing and delivering the ten largest DOD programs in the 2015

PRIVACYGRID: Supporting Anonymous Location Queries in Mobile Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

continued price reduction of location tracking de- vices, location - based services (LBSs) are widely recognized as an important feature of the future computing... location - based services can operate completely anonymously, such as “when I pass a gas station, alert me with the unit price of the gas”. Others can...Anonymous Usage of Location - Based Services Through Spatial and Tempo- ral Cloaking. In Proceedings of the International Con- ference on Mobile

Rating hydrogen as a potential aviation fuel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witcofski, R. D.

1980-01-01

The viability of liquid hydrogen, liquid methane, and synthetic aviation kerosene as future alternate fuels for transport aircraft is analyzed, and the results of a comparative assessment are given in terms of cost, energy resource utilization, areas of fuel production, transmission airport facilities, and ultimate use in the aircraft. Important safety (fires) and some environmental aspects (CO2 balance) are also described. It is concluded that fuel price estimates indicate the price of synthetic aviation kerosene (synjet) would be approximately half of the price calculated for liquid hydrogen and somewhat less than that of liquid methane, with synjet from oil shale reported to be the least expensive.

Modeling Addictive Consumption as an Infectious Disease*

PubMed Central

Alamar, Benjamin; Glantz, Stanton A.

2011-01-01

The dominant model of addictive consumption in economics is the theory of rational addiction. The addict in this model chooses how much they are going to consume based upon their level of addiction (past consumption), the current benefits and all future costs. Several empirical studies of cigarette sales and price data have found a correlation between future prices and consumption and current consumption. These studies have argued that the correlation validates the rational addiction model and invalidates any model in which future consumption is not considered. An alternative to the rational addiction model is one in which addiction spreads through a population as if it were an infectious disease, as supported by the large body of empirical research of addictive behaviors. In this model an individual's probability of becoming addicted to a substance is linked to the behavior of their parents, friends and society. In the infectious disease model current consumption is based only on the level of addiction and current costs. Price and consumption data from a simulation of the infectious disease model showed a qualitative match to the results of the rational addiction model. The infectious disease model can explain all of the theoretical results of the rational addiction model with the addition of explaining initial consumption of the addictive good. PMID:21339848

Targeting the affordability of cigarettes: a new benchmark for taxation policy in low-income and-middle-income countries.

PubMed

Blecher, Evan

2010-08-01

To investigate the appropriateness of tax incidence (the percentage of the retail price occupied by taxes) benchmarking in low-income and-middle-income countries (LMICs) with rapidly growing economies and to explore the viability of an alternative tax policy rule based on the affordability of cigarettes. The paper outlines criticisms of tax incidence benchmarking, particularly in the context of LMICs. It then considers an affordability-based benchmark using relative income price (RIP) as a measure of affordability. The RIP measures the percentage of annual per capita GDP required to purchase 100 packs of cigarettes. Using South Africa as a case study of an LMIC, future consumption is simulated using both tax incidence benchmarks and affordability benchmarks. I show that a tax incidence benchmark is not an optimal policy tool in South Africa and that an affordability benchmark could be a more effective means of reducing tobacco consumption in the future. Although a tax incidence benchmark was successful in increasing prices and reducing tobacco consumption in South Africa in the past, this approach has drawbacks, particularly in the context of a rapidly growing LMIC economy. An affordability benchmark represents an appropriate alternative that would be more effective in reducing future cigarette consumption.

Towards understanding the guessing game: a dynamical systems’ perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, Stefan

2004-08-01

The so-called “Guessing Game” or α-Beauty Contest serves as a paradigmatic conceptual framework for competitive price formation on financial markets beyond traditional equilibrium finance. It highlights features that are reasonable to consider when dealing with price formation on real markets. Nonetheless this game is still poorly understood. We propose a model which is essentially based on two assumptions: (1) players consider intervals rather than exact numbers to cope with incomplete knowledge and (2) players iteratively update their recent guesses. It provides an explanation for typical patterns observed in real data, such as the strict positivity of outcomes in the 1-shot setting, the skew background distribution of guessed numbers, as well as the polynomial convergence towards the game-theoretic Nash equilibrium in the iterative setting.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day’s closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance. PMID:28708865

Estimating the future agriculture freight transportation network needs due to climate change using remote sensing and regional climate models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

A reoccurring challenge with increasing fuel prices is optimization of multi- and inter-modal freight transport to move products most efficiently. Projections for the future of agriculture in the United States (U.S.) combined with regional climate mo...

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Mid-Term Prospects for Natural Gas Supply

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

This service report describes the recent behavior of natural gas markets with respect to natural gas prices, their potential future behavior, the potential future supply contribution of liquefied natural gas and increased access to federally restricted resources, and the need for improved natural gas data.

Esther Dyson's Vision of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Runyan, Andy

1999-01-01

Discusses a vision of the future based on Esther Dyson's views of the proliferation of the Internet. Topics include the Internet as a communication medium; electronic commerce; the role of education, including the role of teachers; intellectual property rights; and friction freedom in a new digital economy relating to pricing. (LRW)

Energy resources - cornucopia or empty barrel?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, P.J.

1998-01-01

Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of resources and reserves have historically created considerable misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of energy production assume that there is a finite supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the resource. Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price. The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract. By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety of available energy sources and that competition among them leads to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next few decades.Over the last 25 years, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe that resources are rapidly depleting and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because longterm trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. This paper examines historic trends and clarify the foundations on which one may build one's predictions.

Hydrocarbon gas liquids production and related industrial development

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

Hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) are produced at refineries from crude oil and at natural gas processing plants from unprocessed natural gas. From 2010 to 2015, total HGL production increased by 42%. Natural gas processing plants accounted for all the increase, with recovered natural gas plant liquids (NGPL)—light hydrocarbon gases such as propane—rising by 58%, from 2.07 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 3.27 million b/d in 2015, while refinery output of HGL declined by 7%. The rapid increase in NGPL output was the result of rapid growth in natural gas production, as production shifted to tight gas and shale gas resources, and as producers targeted formations likely to yield natural gas with high liquids content. Annual Energy Outlook 2016 results suggest varying rates of future NGPL production growth, depending on relative crude oil and natural gas prices.

Beef, Real Food for Real People: An Industrial Analysis of the Beef Industry

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-01

poultry . In 1989 Amrericans spent an average of $3.89 per person per week on beef products. Consumer bought $21 billion in beef products in 1989; they...or decreases in price. If the price of beef gets to high, consumers will switch their purchase to another red meat, poultry or seafood. TECHNOLOGY...The beginning of organized labor in meatpacking occurred with the -- •formation of the Amalgamated Meat Cutters and Butcher Workman of North America

Using Economic Experiments to Test the Effect of Reliability Pricing and Self-Sizing on the Private Provision of a Public Good Results: The Case of Constructing Water Conveyance Infrastructure to Mitigate Water Quantity and Quality Concerns in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, J.; Howitt, R. E.; Kroll, S.

2016-12-01

Public financing of public projects is becoming more difficult with growing political and financial pressure to reduce the size and scope of government action. Private provision is possible but is often doomed by under-provision. If however, market-like mechanisms could be incorporated into the solicitation of funds to finance the provision of the good, because, for example, the good is supplied stochastically and is divisible, then we would expect fewer incentives to free ride and greater efficiency in providing the public good. In a controlled computer-based economic experiment, we evaluate two market-like conditions (reliability pricing allocation and self-sizing of the good) that are designed to reduce under-provision. The results suggest that financing an infrastructure project when the delivery is allocated based on reliability pricing rather than historical allocation results in significantly greater price formation efficiency and less free riding whether the project is of a fixed size determined by external policy makers or determined endogenously by the sum of private contributions. When reliability pricing and self-sizing (endogenous) mechanism are used in combination free-riding is reduced the greatest among the tested treatments. Furthermore, and as expected, self-sizing when combined with historical allocations results in the worst level of free-riding. This setting for this treatment creates an incentive to undervalue willingness to pay since very low contributions still return positive earnings as long as enough contributions are raised for a single unit. If everyone perceives everyone else is undervaluing their contribution the incentive grows stronger and we see the greatest degree of free riding among the treatments. Lastly, the results from the analysis suggested that the rebate rule may have encouraged those with willingness to pay values less than the cost of the project to feel confident when contributing more than their willingness to pay and to do so when they faced the endogenously-sized, reliability pricing solicitation since a rebate would likely return them positive earnings. In subsequent research we would like to explore the role of the rebate rule in the effectiveness of reliability pricing and self-sizing in increasing price-formation efficiency and reduce free riding.

Examining the production costs of antiretroviral drugs.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Eloan; Vasan, Ashwin; Kim, Jim Yong; Lee, Evan; Guimier, Jean Marc; Perriens, Joseph

2006-08-22

To present direct manufacturing costs and price calculations of individual antiretroviral drugs, enabling those responsible for their procurement to have a better understanding of the cost structure of their production, and to indicate the prices at which these antiretroviral drugs could be offered in developing country markets. Direct manufacturing costs and factory prices for selected first and second-line antiretroviral drugs were calculated based on cost structure data from a state-owned company in Brazil. Prices for the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) were taken from a recent survey by the World Health Organization (WHO). The calculated prices for antiretroviral drugs are compared with quoted prices offered by privately-owned, for-profit manufacturers. The API represents the largest component of direct manufacturing costs (55-99%), while other inputs, such as salaries, equipment costs, and scale of production, have a minimal impact. The calculated prices for most of the antiretroviral drugs studied fall within the lower quartile of the range of quoted prices in developing country markets. The exceptions are those drugs, primarily for second-line therapy, for which the API is either under patent, in short supply, or in limited use in developing countries (e.g. abacavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, saquinavir). The availability of data on the cost of antiretroviral drug production and calculation of factory prices under a sustainable business model provide benchmarks that bulk purchasers of antiretroviral drugs could use to negotiate lower prices. While truly significant price decreases for antiretroviral drugs will depend largely on the future evolution of API prices, the present study demonstrates that for several antiretroviral drugs price reduction is currently possible. Whether or not these reductions materialize will depend on the magnitude of indirect cost and profit added by each supplier over the direct production costs. The ability to achieve price reductions in line with production costs will have critical implications for sustainable treatment for HIV/AIDS in the developing world.

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

African White Gold: Elephant Ivory and Rhino Horn Trafficking - US Intervention and Interdiction

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

wildlife trafficking and poaching is the impact to international security, regional stability, and to local governance. The rapid rise in the price of... poaching presents significant second and third order affects that impact their security, their rule of law, national sovereignty, and their future...national security. Research Question Both the recent spike in elephant and rhino poaching , and the rapid rise in the price of ivory creates an

77 FR 76459 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; North Pacific Groundfish and Halibut...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-28

... the GOA (Eastern GOA, Central GOA, and Western GOA) and by subarea in the BSAI (BS subarea and AI... prices in future years, if that data becomes available and display of a standard ex-vessel price meets... Petersburg $6.43 SEAK 6.02 Cordova 6.22 EGOAxSE 6.02 Homer 6.11 KEN 6.32 Kodiak 5.98 CGOA 6.02 WGOA 6.02 AI 6...

Consumers’ Perceptions of Preconception Health

PubMed Central

Squiers, Linda; Mitchell, Elizabeth W.; Levis, Denise M.; Lynch, Molly; Dolina, Suzanne; Margolis, Marjorie; Scales, Monica; Kish-Doto, Julia

2015-01-01

Purpose To inform the development of a preconception health (PCH) social marketing plan, we conducted qualitative research with prospective consumers. Approach We present formative findings based on the four Ps of social marketing: product, price, promotion, and place. Setting We conducted focus groups with 10 groups of women in Atlanta, Georgia, in fall 2010. Participants We classified women aged 18 to 44 into five groups based on their pregnancy plans, and then further segmented the groups based on socioeconomic status for a total of 10 groups. Method The focus group guide was designed to elicit participants’ responses about the product, price, promotion, and placement of PCH. We used NVivo 9 software to analyze focus group data. Results Women planning a pregnancy in the future had different perspectives on PCH as a product than women not planning a pregnancy. Barriers to PCH included lack of social support, addiction, and lack of awareness about PCH. Participants preferred to think of PCH behaviors as “promoting” a healthy baby rather than preventing an unhealthy birth outcome. Many women in the focus groups preferred to hear PCH messages from a health care provider, among other channels. Conclusion The results from this research will inform the development of a social marketing plan for PCH and the development of concepts that will be tested with consumers to determine their viability for use in a national campaign. PMID:23286658

Price-related promotions for tobacco products on Twitter.

PubMed

Jo, Catherine L; Kornfield, Rachel; Kim, Yoonsang; Emery, Sherry; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-07-01

This cross-sectional study examined price-related promotions for tobacco products on Twitter. Through the Twitter Firehose, we obtained access to all public tweets posted between 6 December 2012 and 20 June 2013 that contained a keyword suggesting a tobacco-related product or behaviour (eg, cigarette, vaping) in addition to a keyword suggesting a price promotion (eg, coupon, discount). From this data set of 155 249 tweets, we constructed a stratified sampling frame based on the price-related keywords and randomly sampled 5000 tweets (3.2%). Tweets were coded for product type and promotion type. Non-English tweets and tweets unrelated to a tobacco or cessation price promotion were excluded, leaving an analytic sample of 2847 tweets. The majority of tweets (97.0%) mentioned tobacco products while 3% mentioned tobacco cessation products. E-cigarettes were the most frequently mentioned product (90.1%), followed by cigarettes (5.4%). The most common type of price promotion mentioned across all products was a discount. About a third of all e-cigarette-related tweets included a discount code. Banned or restricted price promotions comprised about 3% of cigarette-related tweets. This study demonstrates that the vast majority of tweets offering price promotions focus on e-cigarettes. Future studies should examine the extent to which Twitter users, particularly youth, notice or engage with these price promotion tweets. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy Scripts

PubMed Central

Sumida, Wesley K; Taniguchi, Ronald; Juarez, Deborah Taira

2016-01-01

Prescription drugs have reduced morbidity and mortality and improved the quality of life of millions of Americans. Yet, concerns over drug price increases loom. Drug spending has risen relatively slowly over the past decade because many of the most popular brand-name medicines lost patent protection. In the near future, there will be fewer low-cost generics coming into the market to offset the rising prices of brand-name drugs. Drug expenditures are influenced by both volume and price. This article focuses on how drug prices are set in the United States and current trends. Drug prices are determined through an extremely complicated set of interactions between pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care organizations, hospitals, chain stores, and consumers. The process differs depending on the type of drug and place of delivery. Rising drug prices have come under increased scrutiny due to increased cost inflation and because many price increases come as a result of mergers and acquisitions of generic drug companies or changes in ownership of brand name drug manufacturers. Other countries have reigned in drug prices by negotiating with or regulating pharmaceutical manufacturers. The best long-term solution to rising drug prices is yet to be determined but the United States will continue to debate this issue and the discussions will get more heated if drug expenditures continue to rise at a rapid rate (ie, increasing 13% in 2014 from the previous year). PMID:26870605

Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: A comparison of statistical stylized facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parisi, Daniel R.; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

2013-01-01

We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: a comparison of statistical stylized facts.

PubMed

Parisi, Daniel R; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

2013-01-01

We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Reputation, Princing and the E-Science Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandasivam, Arun; Neumann, Dirk

One of the fundamental aspects for an efficient Grid usage is the optimization of resource allocation among the participants. However, this has not yet materialized. Each user is a self-interested participant trying to maximize his utility whereas the utility is not only determined by the fastest completion time, but on the prices as well. Future revenues are influenced by users' reputation. Reputation mechanisms help to build trust between loosely coupled and geographically distributed participants. Providers need an incentive to reduce selfish cancellation of jobs and privilege own jobs. In this chapter we present first an offline scheduling mechanism with a fixed price. Jobs are collected by a broker and scheduled to machines. The goal of the broker is to balance the load and to maximize the revenue in the network. Consumers can submit their jobs according to their preferences, but taking the incentives of the broker into account. This mechanism does not consider reputation. In a second step a reputation-based pricing mechanism for a simple, but fair pricing of resources is analyzed. In e-Science researchers do not appreciate idiosyncratic pricing strategies and policies. Their interest lies in doing research in an efficient manner. Consequently, in our mechanism the price is tightly coupled to the reputation of a site to guarantee fairness of pricing and facilitate price determination. Furthermore, the price is not the only parameter as completion time plays an important role, when deadlines have to be met. We provide a flexible utility and decision model for every participant and analyze the outcome of our reputation-based pricing system via simulation.

Behavioral dimensions of food security

PubMed Central

Timmer, C. Peter

2012-01-01

The empirical regularities of behavioral economics, especially loss aversion, time inconsistency, other-regarding preferences, herd behavior, and framing of decisions, present significant challenges to traditional approaches to food security. The formation of price expectations, hoarding behavior, and welfare losses from highly unstable food prices all depends on these behavioral regularities. At least when they are driven by speculative bubbles, market prices for food staples (and especially for rice, the staple food of over 2 billion people) often lose their efficiency properties and the normative implications assigned by trade theory. Theoretical objections to government efforts to stabilize food prices, thus, have reduced saliency, although operational, financing, and implementation problems remain important, even critical. The experience of many Asian governments in stabilizing their rice prices over the past half century is drawn on in this paper to illuminate both the political mandates stemming from behavioral responses of citizens and operational problems facing efforts to stabilize food prices. Despite the theoretical problems with free markets, the institutional role of markets in economic development remains. All policy instruments must operate compatibly with prices in markets. During policy design, especially for policies designed to alter market prices, incentive structures need to be compatible with respect to both government capacity (bureaucratic and budgetary) and empirical behavior on the part of market participants who will respond to planned policy changes. A new theoretical underpinning to political economy analysis is needed that incorporates this behavioral perspective, with psychology, sociology, and anthropology all likely to make significant contributions. PMID:20855628

Behavioral dimensions of food security.

PubMed

Timmer, C Peter

2012-07-31

The empirical regularities of behavioral economics, especially loss aversion, time inconsistency, other-regarding preferences, herd behavior, and framing of decisions, present significant challenges to traditional approaches to food security. The formation of price expectations, hoarding behavior, and welfare losses from highly unstable food prices all depends on these behavioral regularities. At least when they are driven by speculative bubbles, market prices for food staples (and especially for rice, the staple food of over 2 billion people) often lose their efficiency properties and the normative implications assigned by trade theory. Theoretical objections to government efforts to stabilize food prices, thus, have reduced saliency, although operational, financing, and implementation problems remain important, even critical. The experience of many Asian governments in stabilizing their rice prices over the past half century is drawn on in this paper to illuminate both the political mandates stemming from behavioral responses of citizens and operational problems facing efforts to stabilize food prices. Despite the theoretical problems with free markets, the institutional role of markets in economic development remains. All policy instruments must operate compatibly with prices in markets. During policy design, especially for policies designed to alter market prices, incentive structures need to be compatible with respect to both government capacity (bureaucratic and budgetary) and empirical behavior on the part of market participants who will respond to planned policy changes. A new theoretical underpinning to political economy analysis is needed that incorporates this behavioral perspective, with psychology, sociology, and anthropology all likely to make significant contributions.

Examining the Influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women.

PubMed

McGuirt, Jared T; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W; Keyserling, Thomas C; Ammerman, Alice S

2014-01-01

To examine the influence of farmers' market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets, among low-income women. Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers' markets given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Eastern North Carolina. A total of 37 low-income women of childbearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Willingness to shop at a farmers' market. Fisher's exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers' markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based on a positive deviance framework. Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers' market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than a quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Future farmers' market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. Copyright © 2014 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women

PubMed Central

McGuirt, Jared T.; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B.; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W.; Keyserling, Thomas C.; Ammerman, Alice S.

2013-01-01

Objective: To examine the influence of farmers’ market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets, among low-income women. Design: Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers’ market given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Setting: Eastern North Carolina. Participants: Thirty seven low-income women of child-bearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Phenomenon of Interest: Willingness to shop at a farmers’ market. Analysis: Fisher’s exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers’ markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based upon a positive deviance framework. Results: Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers’ market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than the quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Conclusions and Implications: Future farmers’ market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. PMID:24201077

Female labour supply and nursing home prices.

PubMed

Bauer, Thomas K; Stroka, Magdalena A

2013-09-01

Long term care in Germany is provided in nursing homes, by professional ambulatory services and by the patient's relatives at home, with the latter being predominantly provided by women. Given an increasing labour market participation of women, long term care at home by female relatives might become less frequent in the future which in turn may result in rising demand for and hence rising prices for long term care services. This paper builds upon the existing literature on the determinants of nursing home prices and investigates whether the labour market participation and the education level of women are correlated with the prices of nursing homes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using panel data approaches in this field of research. Based on a full sample of nursing homes in Germany for the years 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007, our empirical results suggest that a high share of full-time employed women aged 50-65 at the district level is not associated with higher prices of nursing homes. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence for a positive correlation of prices with the local average of women's educational level and a negative correlation with part-time employment indicating that price levels are lower in regions with higher shares of part-time employed women.

Quantity discounts on a virtual good: The results of a massive pricing experiment at King Digital Entertainment

PubMed Central

Levitt, Steven D.; List, John A.; Neckermann, Susanne; Nelson, David

2016-01-01

We report on a natural field experiment on quantity discounts involving more than 14 million consumers. Implementing price reductions ranging from 9–70% for large purchases, we found remarkably little impact on revenue, either positively or negatively. There was virtually no increase in the quantity of customers making a purchase; all the observed changes occurred for customers who already were buyers. We found evidence that infrequent purchasers are more responsive to discounts than frequent purchasers. There was some evidence of habit formation when prices returned to pre-experiment levels. There also was some evidence that consumers contemplating small purchases are discouraged by the presence of extreme quantity discounts for large purchases. PMID:27382146

Media Exchange.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedstein, Harriet G., Ed.

1982-01-01

Reviews three audiovisual instructional aids, providing information on time, format, catalog number, price, and supplier. "Distillation: Simple and Fractional,""The Periodic Table," and "Manmade Macromolecules" are considered to be excellent materials for secondary school chemistry classes. (JN)

Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

2000-03-01

Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. Methods We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Results Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. Conclusion This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating. PMID:20482857

Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C; Steenhuis, Ingrid Hm

2010-05-19

Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating.

77 FR 30574 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-23

... otherwise be a market for that person to close-out the position even at the $1 cabinet price (e.g., the... Options Audit Trail (``COATS'') requirements of Exchange Rule 6.67 Order Format and System Entry... transactions in the same format as the COATS data is maintained. In this regard, all transactions for less than...

76 FR 27122 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-10

... be a market for that person to close-out the position even at the $1 cabinet price (e.g., the series... Trail (``COATS'') requirements of Exchange Rule 6.67 Order Format and System Entry Requirements. However... same format as the COATS data is maintained. In this regard, all transactions for less than $1 must be...

76 FR 27136 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-10

... be a market for that person to close-out the position even at the $1 cabinet price (e.g., the series... Trail (``COATS'') requirements of Exchange Rule 955NY Order Format and System Entry Requirements... the same format as the COATS data is maintained. In this regard, all transactions for less than $1...

12 CFR Appendix H to Part 222 - Appendix H-Model Forms for Risk-Based Pricing and Credit Score Disclosure Exception Notices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... appendix are models; their use is optional. 3. A person may change the forms by rearranging the format or... when rearranging the format of the model forms. a. Acceptable changes include, for example: i. Corrections or updates to telephone numbers, mailing addresses, or Web site addresses that may change over...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piette, Mary Ann

California needs new, responsive, demand-side energy technologies to ensure that periods of tight electricity supply on the grid don't turn into power outages. Led by Berkeley Lab's Mary Ann Piette, the California Energy Commission (through its Public Interest Energy Research Program) has established a Demand Response Research Center that addresses two motivations for adopting demand responsiveness: reducing average electricity prices and preventing future electricity crises. The research seeks to understand factors that influence "what works" in Demand Response. Piette's team is investigating the two types of demand response, load response and price response, that may influence and reduce the usemore » of peak electric power through automated controls, peak pricing, advanced communications, and other strategies.« less

Saving Power at Peak Hours (LBNL Science at the Theater)

ScienceCinema

Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2018-05-23

California needs new, responsive, demand-side energy technologies to ensure that periods of tight electricity supply on the grid don't turn into power outages. Led by Berkeley Lab's Mary Ann Piette, the California Energy Commission (through its Public Interest Energy Research Program) has established a Demand Response Research Center that addresses two motivations for adopting demand responsiveness: reducing average electricity prices and preventing future electricity crises. The research seeks to understand factors that influence "what works" in Demand Response. Piette's team is investigating the two types of demand response, load response and price response, that may influence and reduce the use of peak electric power through automated controls, peak pricing, advanced communications, and other strategies.

The effect of life-cycle cost disclosure on consumer behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deutsch, Matthias

For more than 20 years, analysts have reported on the so-called "energy paradox" or the "energy efficiency gap", referring to the fact that economic agents could in principle lower their total cost at current prices by using more energy-efficient technology but, nevertheless, often decide not to do so. Theory suggests that providing information in a simplified way could potentially reduce this "efficiency gap". Such simplification may be achieved by providing the estimated monetary operating cost and life-cycle cost (LCC) of a given appliance---which has been a recurring theme within the energy policy and efficiency labeling community. Yet, little is known so far about the causal effects of LCC disclosure on consumer action because of the gap between the acquisition of efficiency information and consumer purchasing behavior in the real marketplace. This dissertation bridges the gap by experimentally integrating LCC disclosure into two major German commercial websites---a price comparison engine for cooling appliances, and an online shop for washing machines. Internet users arriving on these websites were randomly assigned to two experimental groups, and the groups were exposed to different visual stimuli. The control group received regular product price information, whereas the treatment group was, in addition, offered information about operating cost and total LCC. Click-stream data of consumers' shopping behavior was evaluated with multiple regression analysis by controlling for several product characteristics. This dissertation finds that LCC disclosure reduces the mean energy use of chosen cooling appliances by 2.5% (p<0.01), and the energy use of chosen washing machines by 0.8% (p<0.001). For the latter, it also reduces the mean water use by 0.7% (p<0.05). These effects suggest a potential role for public policy in promoting LCC disclosure. While I do not attempt to estimate the costs of such a policy, a simple quantification shows that the benefits amount to 100 to 200 thousand Euros per year for Germany, given current predictions regarding the price of tradable permits for CO2, and not counting other potential benefits. Future research should strive for increasing external validity, using better instruments, and evaluating the effectiveness of different information formats for LCC disclosure.

Oil Production, The Price Crash and Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2015-12-01

World oil production increased to about 74 million barrels per day by January 2005, and was fairly constant until 2011 when it started to increase to 77.8 mb/d in 2014. This spectacular increase of 4 mb/d was almost entirely due to a sharp increase in production in the US from shale formations, called light tight oil (LTO). World oil production minus this increase in US LTO Production has been flat since 2005 at about 74 mb/d. When US production starts to decline, world oil production likely will as well. That surge is forecast to end soon because LTO is expensive to produce, the first year decline rates are extremely high requiring many new wells each year to maintain or increase production and the most productive locations have already been drilled. It is unprofitable for the Exploration and Production (E&P) companies. Full-year free cash flow has been negative for most tight oil E&P companies since 2009. The total negative cash flow for the 19 largest E&P companies totaled 10.5B in 2014. The surge in US LTO production created an imbalance in global supply and demand and resulted in a 50% decrease in the price of oil. The tight-oil producers who were are financially marginal at an oil price greater than 90 per barrel are even more so at the lower price. As a result the surge in US production of LTO is declining, making it unlikely that world oil production will exceed the present value of about 28 Gb/yr (equivalent to 75 mb/d) (175 EJ/yr). Many of the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and RCP (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways) projections (especially RCP 8.5 and 6) require CO2 emissions due to oil consumption in the range of 32 Gb/yr to 57 Gb/yr (200 to 350 EJ/yr). The higher values would require a doubling of world oil production. It is highly uncertain whether the higher CO2 scenarios will be reached. This is an element of uncertainty missing from most considerations of future climate change.

Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

AC HTS Transmission Cable for Integration into the Future EHV Grid of the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuijderduin, R.; Chevtchenko, O.; Smit, J. J.; Aanhaanen, G.; Melnik, I.; Geschiere, A.

Due to increasing power demand, the electricity grid of the Netherlands is changing. The future grid must be capable to transmit all the connected power. Power generation will be more decentralized like for instance wind parks connected to the grid. Furthermore, future large scale production units are expected to be installed near coastal regions. This creates some potential grid issues, such as: large power amounts to be transmitted to consumers from west to east and grid stability. High temperature superconductors (HTS) can help solving these grid problems. Advantages to integrate HTS components at Extra High Voltage (EHV) and High Voltage (HV) levels are numerous: more power with less losses and less emissions, intrinsic fault current limiting capability, better control of power flow, reduced footprint, etc. Today's main obstacle is the relatively high price of HTS. Nevertheless, as the price goes down, initial market penetration for several HTS components is expected by year 2015 (e.g.: cables, fault current limiters). In this paper we present a design of intrinsically compensated EHV HTS cable for future grid integration. Discussed are the parameters of such cable providing an optimal power transmission in the future network.

Cable Communications Revolution. Future: Broadband Communications, Local Origination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Robert W.

The revolution in two-way broadband communications envisioned for the future includes remote access to libraries, interactive educational programing, shopping at home, personal and property security, and many other services limited only by man's imagination and his ability to deliver the service at a price the consumer is willing and able to pay.…

Stocks in the Future: An Examination of Participant Outcomes in 2014-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durham, Rachel E.

2016-01-01

This report features research on Stocks in the Future (SIF), a financial literacy program for middle-grades students. The goals of SIF are to serve underrepresented, socioeconomically disadvantaged students in schools where more than 50% are eligible for free/reduced-price meals, achieve stronger student attendance and greater attachment to…

The United States and Cuba: Past, Present and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-04-01

Amendment in 1934, the naval base at Guantanamo remains controversial and undoubtedly surface as a transition issue for a post -Castro Cuba. 28 The...uprisings led by groups attempting to overthrow the government accusing the incumbent leaders of corruption and ruthlessness.33 The first US post ...86% and 90% of total exports.15 In the post -Second World War period, sugar prices fell again and although the price rose to 3.5 cents per pond in

Engineering and Design: Civil Works Cost Engineering

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-31

labor cost requirements are broken into tasks of work. Each task is usually performd by a labor crew. Crews may vary in size and mix of skills. The...requested in advance of the expected purchase date. Suppliers are reluctant to guarantee future pricw and ofien will only quote current prices. It may be...unit cost is the overhead cost for the item. g. Sources for Pricing. The Cost Engineer must rely on judgement, historical data, and current labor market

Leverage effect and its causality in the Korea composite stock price index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chang-Yong

2012-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the leverage effect and its causality in the time series of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from November of 1997 to September of 2010. The leverage effect, which can be quantitatively expressed as a negative correlation between past return and future volatility, is measured by using the cross-correlation coefficient of different time lags between the two time series of the return and the volatility. We find that past return and future volatility are negatively correlated and that the cross correlation is moderate and decays over 60 trading days. We also carry out a partial correlation analysis in order to confirm that the negative correlation between past return and future volatility is neither an artifact nor influenced by the traded volume. To determine the causality of the leverage effect within the decay time, we additionally estimate the cross correlation between past volatility and future return. With the estimate, we perform a statistical hypothesis test to demonstrate that the causal relation is in favor of the return influencing the volatility rather than the other way around.

The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, O.; Hawkes, A.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.

2017-08-01

Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh-1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh-1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175-510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027-2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

Analysis of Spanish generic medicines retail market: recommendations to enhance long-term sustainability.

PubMed

Dylst, Pieter; Vulto, Arnold G; Simoens, Steven

2014-06-01

The use of generic medicines in Spain is traditionally low compared to other European countries, despite efforts of the Spanish government in the past. This paper provides a perspective on the Spanish generic medicines retail market and how the current policy environment may affect the long-term sustainability. The Spanish government's focus on prices of generic medicines (e.g., mandatory price cuts, reference price set at the lowest level) have made them amongst the lowest in Europe. In our opinion, this combination of continuous pressure on prices and limited diffusion of generic medicines may undermine the long-term sustainability of the Spanish generic medicines retail market. The unique experience in Spain shows the impact of demand-side policies on the use of generic medicines. Because a sustainable generic medicines retail market is important to maintain future competition in the off-patent medicines market, this perspective paper rounds off with recommendations to increase its sustainability.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

2016-04-01

The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

Impact of residential PV adoption on Retail Electricity Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, DWH; Adlakha, S; Low, SH

2013-11-01

The price of electricity supplied from home rooftop photo voltaic (PV) solar cells has fallen below the retail price of grid electricity in some areas. A number of residential households have an economic incentive to install rooftop PV systems and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. A significant portion of the costs incurred by utility companies are fixed costs which must be recovered even as consumption falls. Electricity rates must increase in order for utility companies to recover fixed costs from shrinking sales bases. Increasing rates will, in turn, result in even more economic incentives for customers tomore » adopt rooftop PV. In this paper, we model this feedback between PV adoption and electricity rates and study its impact on future PV penetration and net-metering costs. We find that the most important parameter that determines whether this feedback has an effect is the fraction of customers who adopt PV in any year based solely on the money saved by doing so in that year, independent of the uncertainties of future years. These uncertainties include possible changes in rate structures such as the introduction of connection charges, the possibility of PV prices dropping significantly in the future, possible changes in tax incentives, and confidence in the reliability and maintainability of PV. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Understanding the development of minimum unit pricing of alcohol in Scotland: a qualitative study of the policy process.

PubMed

Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Hilton, Shona; Bonell, Chris; Bond, Lyndal

2014-01-01

Minimum unit pricing of alcohol is a novel public health policy with the potential to improve population health and reduce health inequalities. Theories of the policy process may help to understand the development of policy innovation and in turn identify lessons for future public health research and practice. This study aims to explain minimum unit pricing's development by taking a 'multiple-lenses' approach to understanding the policy process. In particular, we apply three perspectives of the policy process (Kingdon's multiple streams, Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory, Multi-Level Governance) to understand how and why minimum unit pricing has developed in Scotland and describe implications for efforts to develop evidence-informed policymaking. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with policy actors (politicians, civil servants, academics, advocates, industry representatives) involved in the development of MUP (n = 36). Interviewees were asked about the policy process and the role of evidence in policy development. Data from two other sources (a review of policy documents and an analysis of evidence submission documents to the Scottish Parliament) were used for triangulation. The three perspectives provide complementary understandings of the policy process. Evidence has played an important role in presenting the policy issue of alcohol as a problem requiring action. Scotland-specific data and a change in the policy 'image' to a population-based problem contributed to making alcohol-related harms a priority for action. The limited powers of Scottish Government help explain the type of price intervention pursued while distinct aspects of the Scottish political climate favoured the pursuit of price-based interventions. Evidence has played a crucial but complex role in the development of an innovative policy. Utilising different political science theories helps explain different aspects of the policy process, with Multi-Level Governance particularly useful for highlighting important lessons for the future of public health policy.

Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larrieu, Jeremy

In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

Bibliography of AV Materials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedstein, Harriet, Ed.

1981-01-01

Lists commercially available audiovisual materials by subject area. Includes title, producer (addresses given), catalog number, format (film, filmstrip, cassette, slides), and prices. Subject areas include: elements; equilibrium; gases; laboratory techniques and experiments; general chemistry; introductory materials (including mathematics); and…

Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines.

PubMed

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-06-01

THIS ARTICLE DEVELOPS A FORMAL MODEL FOR COMPARING THE COST STRUCTURE OF THE TWO MAIN TRANSPORT OPTIONS FOR NATURAL GAS: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO 2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG.

Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines

PubMed Central

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-01-01

This article develops a formal model for comparing the cost structure of the two main transport options for natural gas: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG. PMID:24683269

75 FR 77930 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-14

... market for that person to close-out the position even at the $1 cabinet price (e.g., the series might be... Consolidated Options Audit Trail (``COATS'') requirements of Exchange Rule 6.67 Order Format and System Entry... transactions in the same format as the COATS data is maintained. In this regard, all transactions for less than...

12 CFR Appendix H to Part 1022 - Appendix H-Model Forms for Risk-Based Pricing and Credit Score Disclosure Exception Notices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... addresses that may change over time. ii. The addition of graphics or icons, such as the person's corporate... change the forms by rearranging the format or by making technical modifications to the language of the... required to conduct consumer testing when rearranging the format of the model forms. a. Acceptable changes...

Evolution of drug reimbursement in Canada: the Pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance for new drugs.

PubMed

Husereau, Don; Dempster, William; Blanchard, Adrienne; Chambers, Johanne

2014-12-01

Canada has a unique system of public drug coverage and reimbursement characterized by a centralized review agency that makes funding recommendations along with decentralized authority for delivering health care across 10 provinces and three territories. There has been a significant increase in price negotiation for new pharmaceuticals in the past 10 years, first by individual provinces and now through a collective price negotiation process called the "Pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance." As of February 2014, the Pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance has already completed 32 negotiations despite still being in a formative stage; it is anticipated that a formal process will be developed in the coming year. In this article, we describe the evolution of price negotiation in Canada and identify several opportunities for improvement of the current process, including the incorporation of economic considerations into price negotiation. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value at Risk on Composite Price Share Index Stock Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

The financial servicest authority was declared Let’s Save Campaign on n commemoration of the World Savings Day that falls on this day, October 31, 2016. The activity was greeted enthusiastically by Indonesia Stock Exchange by taking out the slogan Let’s Save The Stocks. Stock is a form of investment that is expected to benefit in the future despite has risks. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method that can measure how much the risk of a financial investment. Composite Stock Price Indeks is the stock price index used by Indonesia Stock Exchange as stock volatility benchmarks in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) on closing price Composite Price Share Index Stock data on the period 20 September 2016 until 20 September 2017. Box-Pierce test results p value=0.9528 which is greater than a, that shows homoskedasticity. Value at Risk (VaR) with Variance Covariance Method is Rp.3.054.916,07 which means with 99% confindence interval someone who invests Rp.100.000.000,00 will get Rp.3.054.916,07 as a maximum loss.

Message and price components of Family Caps: experimental evidence from New Jersey.

PubMed

Jagannathan, Radha; Camasso, Michael J

2011-08-01

In this paper, we examine the relative efficacy of two mechanisms--price consideration and the message of social responsibility--in accounting for Family Cap effects on fertility behavior. The Family Cap is a component of welfare reform policy that denies additional cash benefits to children born 10 or more months after a woman entered the welfare rolls. We use data from the New Jersey Family Development Program (FDP) evaluation that employed a classical experimental design. We find that fertility behaviors are influenced by both Family Cap price and message mechanisms but that these effects are conditioned by welfare recipients' time on welfare and race. Black women who have longer stays on welfare are more likely to be influenced by price while women with shorter stays are influenced by both price and the social message. We believe our results have implications not only for future public welfare policy initiatives but for any social policies that attempt to influence behavior directly, through individual rewards and punishments, and indirectly through the activation of social or community pressures. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stock price forecasting based on time series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Wan Le

2018-05-01

Using the historical stock price data to set up a sequence model to explain the intrinsic relationship of data, the future stock price can forecasted. The used models are auto-regressive model, moving-average model and autoregressive-movingaverage model. The original data sequence of unit root test was used to judge whether the original data sequence was stationary. The non-stationary original sequence as a first order difference needed further processing. Then the stability of the sequence difference was re-inspected. If it is still non-stationary, the second order differential processing of the sequence is carried out. Autocorrelation diagram and partial correlation diagram were used to evaluate the parameters of the identified ARMA model, including coefficients of the model and model order. Finally, the model was used to forecast the fitting of the shanghai composite index daily closing price with precision. Results showed that the non-stationary original data series was stationary after the second order difference. The forecast value of shanghai composite index daily closing price was closer to actual value, indicating that the ARMA model in the paper was a certain accuracy.

“Slimming” of power-law tails by increasing market returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, D.

2002-06-01

We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by Lux and Sornette (J. Money, Credit and Banking, preprint at http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9910141) that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent <1, in contradiction with empirical data. The idea is that the price fluctuations associated with bubbles must on average grow with the mean market return r. When r is larger than the discount rate rδ, the distribution of returns of the observable price, sum of the bubble component and of the fundamental price, exhibits an intermediate tail with an exponent which can be larger than 1. This regime r> rδ corresponds to a generalization of the rational bubble model in which the fundamental price is no more given by the discounted value of future dividends. We explain how this is possible. Our model predicts that, the higher is the market remuneration r above the discount rate, the larger is the power-law exponent and thus the thinner is the tail of the distribution of price returns.

Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari Md; Sarmidi, Tamat; Hosseinidoust, Ehsan

2014-09-01

The first question that comes to the mind is: "How can we predict the palm oil price accurately?" This question is the authorities, policy makers and economist's question for a long period of time. The first reason is that in the recent years Malaysia showed a comparative advantage in palm oil production and has become top producer and exporter in the world. Secondly, palm oil price plays significant role in government budget and represents important source of income for Malaysia, which potentially can influence the magnitude of monetary policies and eventually have an impact on inflation. Thirdly, knowledge on the future trends would be helpful in the planning and decision making procedures and will generate precise fiscal and monetary policy. Daily data on palm oil prices along with the ARIMA models, neural networks and fuzzy logic systems are employed in this paper. Empirical findings indicate that the dynamic neural network of NARX and the hybrid system of ANFIS provide higher accuracy than the ARIMA and static neural network for forecasting the palm oil price in Malaysia.

A normative price for a manufactured product: The SAMICS methodology. Volume 2: Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, R. G.

1979-01-01

The Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards provide standard formats, data, assumptions, and procedures for determining the price a hypothetical solar array manufacturer would have to be able to obtain in the market to realize a specified after-tax rate of return on equity for a specified level of production. The methodology and its theoretical background are presented. The model is sufficiently general to be used in any production-line manufacturing environment. Implementation of this methodology by the Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Simultation computer program is discussed.

Allocation of Future Federal Airport and Airway Costs.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

attributable to users are allocated among them based upon Ramsey Pricing which minimizes the distortion in aviation markets resulting from the allocation of...the years following 1992, the producers price Uindex projections made by Wharton Econometric Forecasting . Associates1 were employed. This latter set...and on econometric cost estimation techniques. These are Volumes 3 and 5 respectively. 68 A(A A11 I FSZK7_ ODi Id Lin <j< .99 C-4 x\\ M LL- < P7 Pi0

China QIUSHI SEEKING TRUTH no 3, 1 August 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-16

next. It is a critical moment now. Whether or not we can get over this difficulty has a most impor- tant bearing on the future of China’s reform and...game. Once a country, especially a developing country, takes the road of inflation, it will find it difficult to get out of inflation. As inflation...in the prices of industrial production means factored in, our country’s general price level rose by more than 50 percent. How - ever, just like the

Price, carbon and generation profiles: how partisan differences make the future of climate change uncertain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sautter, John A.; Sautter, Christopher A.

America is very much a divided nation when it comes to politics. That polarization is reflected in the environmental and energy realities currently at play in many states, creating a remarkable divide between more conservative Red States and more liberal Blue States when it comes to the amount of CO{sub 2} emitted into the atmosphere and the price of electricity. These differences pose an enormous obstacle in passing climate change legislation. (author)

Analyzing the Sensitivity of Hydrogen Vehicle Sales to Consumers' Preferences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, David L; Lin, Zhenhong; Dong, Jing

2013-01-01

The success of hydrogen vehicles will depend on consumer behavior as well as technology, energy prices and public policy. This study examines the sensitivity of the future market shares of hydrogen-powered vehicles to alternative assumptions about consumers preferences. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies model was used to project future market shares. The model has 1,458 market segments, differentiated by travel behavior, geography, and tolerance to risk, among other factors, and it estimates market shares for twenty advanced power-train technologies. The market potential of hydrogen vehicles is most sensitive to the improvement of drive train technology, especially cost reduction.more » The long-run market success of hydrogen vehicles is less sensitive to the price elasticity of vehicle choice, how consumers evaluate future fuel costs, the importance of fuel availability and limited driving range. The importance of these factors will likely be greater in the early years following initial commercialization of hydrogen vehicles.« less

Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Schmid, Eva; Kriegler, Elmar; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2015-03-01

Economic theory suggests that comprehensive carbon pricing is most efficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and previous studies indicated that the carbon price required for limiting global mean warming to 2 °C is between US$16 and US$73 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 (ref. ). Yet, a global implementation of such high carbon prices is unlikely to be politically feasible in the short term. Instead, most climate policies enacted so far are technology policies or fragmented and moderate carbon pricing schemes. This paper shows that ambitious climate targets can be kept within reach until 2030 despite a sub-optimal policy mix. With a state-of-the-art energy-economy model we quantify the interactions and unique effects of three major policy components: (1) a carbon price starting at US$7 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 to incentivize economy-wide mitigation, flanked by (2) support for low-carbon energy technologies to pave the way for future decarbonization, and (3) a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants to limit stranded assets. We find that such a mix limits the efficiency losses compared with the optimal policy, and at the same time lowers distributional impacts. Therefore, we argue that this instrument mix might be a politically more feasible alternative to the optimal policy based on a comprehensive carbon price alone.

17 CFR 5.13 - Reporting to customers of retail foreign exchange dealers and futures commission merchants...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... exchange dealer or futures commission merchant must promptly furnish in writing to each retail forex... once every three months, a statement which clearly shows: (1) For each retail forex customer: (i) The open retail forex transactions with prices at which acquired; (ii) The net unrealized profits or losses...

17 CFR 5.13 - Reporting to customers of retail foreign exchange dealers and futures commission merchants...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... exchange dealer or futures commission merchant must promptly furnish in writing to each retail forex... once every three months, a statement which clearly shows: (1) For each retail forex customer: (i) The open retail forex transactions with prices at which acquired; (ii) The net unrealized profits or losses...

17 CFR 5.13 - Reporting to customers of retail foreign exchange dealers and futures commission merchants...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... exchange dealer or futures commission merchant must promptly furnish in writing to each retail forex... once every three months, a statement which clearly shows: (1) For each retail forex customer: (i) The open retail forex transactions with prices at which acquired; (ii) The net unrealized profits or losses...

75 FR 67258 - Position Reports for Physical Commodity Swaps

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-02

... Cattle. CME Milk Class III. Comex (``CMX'') Copper Grade 1. CMX Gold. CMX Silver. ICE Futures US (``ICUS... Oats. CME Butter. CME Cheese. CME Dry Whey. CME Hardwood Pulp. CME Lean Hogs. CME Non Fat Dry Milk. CME... contract--The ICE WTI Average Price Option is indirectly linked to a 20.2 listed futures contract because...

10 CFR 626.4 - General acquisition strategy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... the potential for negative impacts from market participation, DOE shall review the following factors...) Futures market price differentials for crude oil and related commodities; and (9) Any other factor the...

Coal conversion products Industrial applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, D.; Dunkin, J.

1980-01-01

The synfuels economic evaluation model was utilized to analyze cost and product economics of the TVA coal conversion facilities. It is concluded that; (1) moderate yearly future escalations ( 6%) in current natural gas prices will result in medium-Btu gas becoming competitive with natural gas at the plant boundary; (2) utilizing DRI price projections, the alternate synfuel products, except for electricity, will be competitive with their counterparts; (3) central site fuel cell generation of electricity, utilizing MBG, is economically less attractive than the other synthetic fuels, given projected price rises in electricity produced by other means; and (4) because of estimated northern Alabama synfuels market demands, existing conventional fuels, infrastructure and industrial synfuels retrofit problems, a diversity of transportable synfuels products should be produced by the conversion facility.

Essays in Energy Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Erica Catherine

This dissertation combines research on three topics in applied energy economics. The first two papers investigate whether consumers are informed about and pay attention to energy costs in residential housing. The first paper explores this issue in the rental housing market, while the second paper focuses on housing purchases. The third paper, based on joint work with AJ Bostian and Harrison Fell, uses a laboratory experiment to test the effects of positive versus negative cost shocks on mulit-unit procurement auction performance. The first paper explores whether there are energy cost information asymmetries between landlords and tenants. If tenants are uninformed about energy costs, landlords cannot capitalize energy efficiency investments into higher rents, leading to under-investment. I exploit variation in energy costs in the form of relative heating fuel price changes in the northeastern United States where some apartment units heat with oil and some units heat with natural gas. I develop a search model to describe the matching of landlords and tenants, and derive predictions about the incidence of relative fuel price changes, tenant turnover, and efficiency investments under both symmetric and asymmetric information. My model predicts that, under symmetric full information, these outcomes will not differ depending on whether landlords or tenants pay for energy. In contrast, under asymmetric information, the demand of uninformed tenants for units that heat with oil rather than gas will not shift when oil prices rise relative to gas prices. In a search model, this leads to different market outcomes when landlords, rather than tenants, pay for energy. I find that the capitalization of energy prices into rents, turnover rates, and energy efficiency investments differ between the two payment regimes in ways that are consistent with asymmetric information. The second paper explores whether home buyers are myopic about future energy costs. I exploit variation in energy costs in the form of fuel price changes in Massachusetts where there is an even distribution of homes that heat with oil and homes that heat with natural gas. I find that relative fuel price shifts cause relative changes in housing transaction prices that are consistent with full capitalization of the present value of future energy cost differences under low discount rates. These findings are consistent with home buyers being attentive to energy costs at point of sale and are not consistent with myopia. The third paper uses a laboratory experiment to test the effects of positive versus negative costs shocks on multi-unit procurement auction performance. Output prices tend to respond more quickly to increases in input prices than to decreases in input prices. While standard economic theory would not predict this pattern, it is found in many market settings. We compare outcomes in uniform price and discriminatory (pay-as-bid) auctions for two different kinds of costs shocks. First we look at ''industry wide'' cost shocks where the cost of a common input changes uniformly for all bidders. We also look at idiosyncratic cost shocks, where bidders' individual costs are changing, but the expected Walrasian price remains fixed. We find evidence for a new explanation of asymmetric passthrough in multi-unit procurement auctions related to the bidding incentives in discriminatory auctions. Discriminatory auctions may be worse than uniform at ''tracking'' shifts in underlying costs, leading to price adjustment asymmetries and production inefficiencies.

Access to fast food and food prices: relationship with fruit and vegetable consumption and overweight among adolescents.

PubMed

Powell, Lisa M; Auld, M Christopher; Chaloupka, Frank J; O'Malley, Patrick M; Johnston, Lloyd D

2007-01-01

We examine the extent to which food prices and restaurant outlet density are associated with adolescent fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index (BMI), and the probability of overweight. We use repeated cross-sections of individual-level data on adolescents from the Monitoring the Future Surveys from 1997 to 2003 combined with fast food and fruit and vegetable prices obtained from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association and fast food and full-service restaurant outlet density measures obtained from Dun & Bradstreet. The results suggest that the price of a fast food meal is an important determinant of adolescents' body weight and eating habits: a 10% increase in the price of a fast food meal leads to a 3.0% increase in the probability of frequent fruit and vegetable consumption, a 0.4% decrease in BMI, and a 5.9% decrease in probability of overweight. The price of fruits and vegetables and restaurant outlet density are less important determinants, although these variables typically have the expected sign and are often statistically associated with our outcome measures. Despite these findings, changes in all observed economic and socio-demographic characteristics together only explain roughly one-quarter of the change in mean BMI and one-fifth of the change in overweight over the 1997-2003 sampling period.

Lessons learned in shaping vaccine markets in low-income countries: a review of the vaccine market segment supported by the GAVI Alliance.

PubMed

Gilchrist, Shawn A N; Nanni, Angeline

2013-12-01

The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) anticipated that growing demand for new vaccines could sufficiently impact the vaccines market to allow low-income countries (LICs) to self-finance new vaccines. But the time required to lower vaccine prices was underestimated and the amount that prices would decline overestimated. To better understand how prices in the LIC vaccine market can be impacted, the vaccine market was retrospectively examined. GAVI archives and the published literature on the vaccine markets in LICs were reviewed for the purpose of identifying GAVI's early assumptions for the evolution of vaccine prices, and contrasting these retrospectively with actual outcomes. The prices in Phases I and II of GAVI-supported vaccines failed to decline to a desirable level within a projected 5-year timeframe. GAVI-eligible countries were unable to sustain newly introduced vaccines without prolonged donor support. Two key lessons can be applied to future vaccine market-shaping strategies: (1) accurate demand forecasting together with committed donor funding can increase supply to the LIC vaccines market, but even greater strides can be made to increase the certainty of purchase; and (2) the expected time to lower prices took much longer than 5 years; market competition is inherently linked to the development time for new vaccines--a minimum of 5-10 or more years. Other factors that can lower vaccine prices include: large-scale production or alternate financing mechanisms that can hasten vaccine price maturation. The impacts of competition on vaccine prices in the LIC new-vaccines market occurred after almost 10 years. The time for research and development, acquisition of technological know-how and to scale production must be accounted for to more accurately predict significant declines on vaccine prices. Alternate financing mechanisms and the use of purchase agreements should also be considered for lowering prices when planning new vaccine introductions.

Assessment of Gasoline Prices and its Predictive Power on U.S. Consumers' Retail Spending and Savings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado-Bonilla, Joel

The rising costs of fuels and specifically gasoline pose an economic challenge to U.S. consumers. Thus, the specific problem considered in this study was a rise in gasoline prices can reduce consumer spending, disposable income, food service traffic, and spending on healthy food, medicines, or visits to the doctor. Aligned with the problem, the purpose of this quantitative multiple correlation study was to examine the economic aspects for a rise in gasoline prices to reduce the six elements in the problem. This study consisted of a correlational design based on a retrospective longitudinal analysis (RLA) to examine gasoline prices versus the economic indexes of: (a) Retail Spending and (b) personal savings (PS). The RLA consisted on historic archival public data from 1978 to 2015. This RLA involved two separate linear multiple regression analyses to measure gasoline price's predictive power (PP) on two indexes while controlling for Unemployment Rate (UR). In summary, regression Formula 1 revealed Gasoline Price had a significant 61.1% PP on Retail Spending. In contrast, Formula 2 had Gasoline Price not having a significant PP on PS. Formula 2 yielded UR with 38.8% PP on PS. Results were significant at p<.01. Gasoline Price's PP on Retail Spending means a spending link to retail items such as: food service traffic, healthy food, medicines, and consumer spending. The UR predictive power on PS was unexpected, but logical from an economic view. Also unexpected was Gasoline Price's non-predictive power on PS, which suggests Americans may not save money when gasoline prices drop. These results shed light on the link of gasoline and UR on U.S. consumer's economy through savings and spending, which can be useful for policy design on gasoline and fuels taxing and pricing. The results serve as a basis for future study on gasoline and economics.

The role of bioethics in the international prescription drug market: economics and global justice.

PubMed

Newland, Shelby E

2006-01-01

In terms of health care access, bioethics has an important role to inform and shape policy issues and develop interdisciplinary ideas and interventions. The rising price of prescription drugs presents one of the most looming barriers to health care access in the world today. Including both theoretical and practical features of the pharmaceutical industry's behavior is necessary to find ethical solutions towards increasing access. Bioethics can evaluate global justice by weighing human rights theory and future innovation at the macro level, and by addressing market forces and responsibilities at the micro level. Inherent structural features of pharmaceuticals, such as its reliance on research and development, cause the industry to employ pricing strategies that seem counter-intuitive to conventional wisdom, but that result in producing a just allocation as defined by market forces. Parallel trade and drug exportation/reimportation threaten the saliency of the industry's differential pricing scheme; a case-study of a single "Euro-price" within the European Union illustrates how this will actually create harm to the most needy member states. This complex situation requires solutions weighing arguments from human rights theory with those from economic theory to arrive at the most globally just allocation of prescription drugs in the global marketplace, as well as to ensure future innovation and scientific progress. Bioethicists as well as economists need to partake urgently in this discourse for the betterment of the global injustices in the international prescription drug market.

Cost evaluation of cellulase enzyme for industrial-scale cellulosic ethanol production based on rigorous Aspen Plus modeling.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Zhang, Jian; Bao, Jie

2016-01-01

Cost reduction on cellulase enzyme usage has been the central effort in the commercialization of fuel ethanol production from lignocellulose biomass. Therefore, establishing an accurate evaluation method on cellulase enzyme cost is crucially important to support the health development of the future biorefinery industry. Currently, the cellulase cost evaluation methods were complicated and various controversial or even conflict results were presented. To give a reliable evaluation on this important topic, a rigorous analysis based on the Aspen Plus flowsheet simulation in the commercial scale ethanol plant was proposed in this study. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) was used as the indicator to show the impacts of varying enzyme supply modes, enzyme prices, process parameters, as well as enzyme loading on the enzyme cost. The results reveal that the enzyme cost drives the cellulosic ethanol price below the minimum profit point when the enzyme is purchased from the current industrial enzyme market. An innovative production of cellulase enzyme such as on-site enzyme production should be explored and tested in the industrial scale to yield an economically sound enzyme supply for the future cellulosic ethanol production.

The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement and Pharmaceutical Regulation in Canada and Australia.

PubMed

Lexchin, Joel; Gleeson, Deborah

2016-10-01

The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is a large regional trade agreement involving 12 countries. It was signed in principle in February 2016 but has not yet been ratified in any of the participating countries. The TPP provisions place a range of constraints on how governments regulate the pharmaceutical sector and set prices for medicines. This article presents a prospective policy analysis of the possible effects of the TPP on these two points in Canada and Australia. Five chapters of relevance to pharmaceutical policy are analyzed: chapters on Technical Barriers to Trade (Chapter 8), Intellectual Property (Chapter 18), Investment (Chapter 9), Dispute Resolution (Chapter 28), and an annex of the chapter on Transparency and Anti-Corruption (Chapter 26, Annex 26-A). The article concludes that the TPP could have profound effects on the criteria these countries use to decide on drug safety and effectiveness, how new drugs are approved (or not) for marketing, post-market surveillance and inspection, the listing of drugs on public formularies, and how individual drugs are priced in the future. Furthermore, the TPP, if ratified and enforced, will reduce future policy flexibility to address the increasing challenge of rising drug prices. © The Author(s) 2016.

Developing resilience to England's future droughts: time for cap and trade?

PubMed

Mitchell, Gordon; McDonald, Adrian

2015-02-01

Much of England is seriously water stressed and future droughts will present major challenges to the water industry if socially and economically damaging supply restrictions are to be avoided. Demand management is seen as a key mechanism for alleviating water stress, yet there are no truly effective incentives to encourage widespread adoption of the behavioural and technological demand management practices available. Water pricing could promote conservation, but on its own it is an inefficient tool for dealing with short term restriction in water supply. Raising prices over the short term in response to a drought is likely to be ineffectual in lowering demand sufficiently; conversely, maintaining high prices over the long term implies costs to the consumer which are needlessly high most of the time. We propose a system for developing resilience to drought in highly water stressed areas, based on a cap and trade (C&T) model. The system would represent a significant innovation in England's water market. However, international experience shows that C&T is successful in other sectors, and need not be overly complex. Here, we open the debate on how a C&T system might work in England. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujita, K. Sydny

This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focusedmore » on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.« less

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.« less

Incentive Elasticity of Demand for Bike/Walk Program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-29

The primary objective of this research is to estimate the "incentive" (price) elasticity of demand for using non-motorized transportation (specifically walking and bicycling) to work. Results can be used directly in the formation of local policies to...

Accounting for the drug life cycle and future drug prices in cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Hoyle, Martin

2011-01-01

Economic evaluations of health technologies typically assume constant real drug prices and model only the cohort of patients currently eligible for treatment. It has recently been suggested that, in the UK, we should assume that real drug prices decrease at 4% per annum and, in New Zealand, that real drug prices decrease at 2% per annum and at patent expiry the drug price falls. It has also recently been suggested that we should model multiple future incident cohorts. In this article, the cost effectiveness of drugs is modelled based on these ideas. Algebraic expressions are developed to capture all costs and benefits over the entire life cycle of a new drug. The lifetime of a new drug in the UK, a key model parameter, is estimated as 33 years, based on the historical lifetime of drugs in England over the last 27 years. Under the proposed methodology, cost effectiveness is calculated for seven new drugs recently appraised in the UK. Cost effectiveness as assessed in the future is also estimated. Whilst the article is framed in mathematics, the findings and recommendations are also explained in non-mathematical language. The 'life-cycle correction factor' is introduced, which is used to convert estimates of cost effectiveness as traditionally calculated into estimates under the proposed methodology. Under the proposed methodology, all seven drugs appear far more cost effective in the UK than published. For example, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio decreases by 46%, from £61, 900 to £33, 500 per QALY, for cinacalcet versus best supportive care for end-stage renal disease, and by 45%, from £31,100 to £17,000 per QALY, for imatinib versus interferon-α for chronic myeloid leukaemia. Assuming real drug prices decrease over time, the chance that a drug is publicly funded increases over time, and is greater when modelling multiple cohorts than with a single cohort. Using the methodology (compared with traditional methodology) all drugs in the UK and New Zealand are predicted to be more cost effective. It is suggested that the willingness-to-pay threshold should be reduced in the UK and New Zealand. The ranking of cost effectiveness will change with drugs assessed as relatively more cost effective and medical devices and surgical procedures relatively less cost effective than previously thought. The methodology is very simple to implement. It is suggested that the model should be parameterized for other countries.

An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Lee, Janice Soo Fern; Sagaon Teyssier, Luis; Dongmo Nguimfack, Boniface; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Lallemant, Marc; Perriens, Joseph; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2016-03-15

The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. The donor funded pediatric ARV market as represented by the GPRM database is small, and lacks price competition. It is dominated by generic drugs due to the lower prices offered and the practicality of FDC formulations. This market requires continued donor support and the current initiatives to protect it are important to ensure market viability, especially if new formulations are to be introduced in the future.

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers

PubMed Central

Bidwell, L. Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G.; Tidey, Jennifer W.; Colby, Suzanne M.

2012-01-01

Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); Omax (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); Pmax (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution, which were interpreted as “Persistence,” reflecting insensitivity to escalating price, and “Amplitude,” reflecting the absolute levels of consumption and price. These findings suggest a two factor structure of nicotine incentive value as measured via a demand curve. If supported, these findings have implications for understanding the relationships among individual demand indices in future behavioral economic studies and may further contribute to understanding of the nature of cigarette reinforcement. PMID:22727784

Supply Constraints Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

module cost, and future price could be critical to the economic viability of this PV technology. Even constraints on future CdTe PV module deployment and found that: CdTe PV modules can remain cost-competitive and 4070 GW of annual CdTe production by 2030. Cost estimates were based on NREL's manufacturing cost

17 CFR 35.2 - Exemption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... manipulation of the market price of any commodity in interstate commerce or for future delivery on or subject to the rules of any contract market), provided the following terms and conditions are met: (a) The...

Food and Environmental Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falvey, Lindsay

1997-01-01

Argues that intensive agriculture restricted to suitable lands will be required in the future due to global population growth, declining food prices, and extreme poverty. Discusses the challenge of balancing environmental care with food production. (DDR)

DMT-TAFM: a data mining tool for technical analysis of futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Vladimir; Sathaye, Archana

2002-03-01

Technical analysis of financial markets describes many patterns of market behavior. For practical use, all these descriptions need to be adjusted for each particular trading session. In this paper, we develop a data mining tool for technical analysis of the futures markets (DMT-TAFM), which dynamically generates rules based on the notion of the price pattern similarity. The tool consists of three main components. The first component provides visualization of data series on a chart with different ranges, scales, and chart sizes and types. The second component constructs pattern descriptions using sets of polynomials. The third component specifies the training set for mining, defines the similarity notion, and searches for a set of similar patterns. DMT-TAFM is useful to prepare the data, and then reveal and systemize statistical information about similar patterns found in any type of historical price series. We performed experiments with our tool on three decades of trading data fro hundred types of futures. Our results for this data set shows that, we can prove or disprove many well-known patterns based on real data, as well as reveal new ones, and use the set of relatively consistent patterns found during data mining for developing better futures trading strategies.

Utilities bullish on meter-reading technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garner, W.L.

1995-01-15

By the end of 1996, the 400,000 customers of Kansas City Power & Light Company (KCPL) will have their electric meters read by a real-time wireless network that will relay electrical consumption readings back to computers at the utility`s customer service office. KCPL`s executives believe the new radio and cellular network will greatly improve the company`s ability to control its power distribution, manage its load requirements, monitor outages, and in the near future, allow time-of-use and offpeak pricing. The KCPL system represents the first systemwide, commercial application of wireless automated meter reading (AMR) by a U.S. utility. The article alsomore » describes other AMR systems for reading water and gas meters, along with saying that $18 billion in future power plant investments can be avoided by using time-of-use pricing for residential customers.« less

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

CLUB FORMATION MECHANISM FOR TRANSPORT-COMMUNITY CREDIT CARDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yue; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi; Nishida, Junji; Yoshida, Mamoru

In this paper, the roles of transport-community cards jointly issued by a public transport firm and retails are investigated as a means to vitalize an obsolescence shopping center located in a middle of a city. When both the price of goods supplied by the retails and the transport fares affect the consumers' behavior, there exist pecuniary externality between the behaviors of the retails and transport firms. The introduction of a transport-community cards system enables to integrate a basket of goods and transport service into a single commodity; thus, the pecuniary externality can be internalized by price coordination. In addition, the paper clarifies theoretically that the transport firm initiatively decides the price of the transportation service and the retails transfer their incomes to the transport firm so that they are induced to jointly issue the transport-community cards.

The future viability of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties.

PubMed

Brownbridge, George; Azadi, Pooya; Smallbone, Andrew; Bhave, Amit; Taylor, Benjamin; Kraft, Markus

2014-01-01

This study presents a techno-economic assessment of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties associated with the development of algal biorefineries. A global sensitivity analysis was performed using a High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) method. It was found that, considering reasonable ranges over which each parameter can vary, the sensitivity of the biodiesel production cost to the key input parameters decreases in the following order: algae oil content>algae annual productivity per unit area>plant production capacity>carbon price increase rate. It was also found that the Return on Investment (ROI) is highly sensitive to the algae oil content, and to a lesser extent to the algae annual productivity, crude oil price and price increase rate, plant production capacity, and carbon price increase rate. For a large scale plant (100,000 tonnes of biodiesel per year) the production cost of biodiesel is likely to be £0.8-1.6 per kg. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quality and efficiency of statin prescribing across countries with a special focus on South Africa: findings and future implications.

PubMed

Godman, Brian; Bishop, Iain; Campbell, Stephen M; Malmström, Rickard E; Truter, Ilse

2015-04-01

Statins are recommended first-line treatment for hyperlipidemia, with published studies suggesting limited differences between them. However, there are reports of under-dosing. South Africa has introduced measures to enhance generic utilization. Part one documents prescribed doses of statins in 2011. Part two determines the extent of generics versus originator and single-sourced statins in 2011 and their costs. Underdosing of simvastatin in 2011 with average prescribed dose of 23.7 mg; however, not for atorvastatin (20.91 mg) or rosuvastatin (15.02 mg). High utilization of generics versus originators at 93-99% for atorvastatin and simvastatin, with limited utilization of single-sourced statins (22% of total statins - defined daily dose basis), mirroring Netherlands, Sweden and UK. Generics priced 33-51% below originator prices. Opportunity to increase simvastatin dosing through education, prescribing targets and incentives. Opportunity to lower generic prices with generic simvastatin 96-98% below single-sourced prices in some European countries.

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

Generic medicines: solutions for a sustainable drug market?

PubMed

Dylst, Pieter; Vulto, Arnold; Godman, Brian; Simoens, Steven

2013-10-01

Generic medicines offer equally high-quality treatment as originator medicines do at much lower prices. As such, they represent a considerable opportunity for authorities to obtain substantial savings. At the moment, the pharmaceutical landscape is changing and many pharmaceutical companies have altered their development and commercial strategies, combining both originator and generic divisions. In spite of this, the generic medicines industry is currently facing a number of challenges: delayed market access; the limited price differential with originator medicines; the continuous downwards pressure on prices; and the negative perception regarding generic medicines held by some key stakeholder groups. This could jeopardize the long-term sustainability of the generic manufacturing industry. Therefore, governments must focus on demand-side policies, alongside policies to accelerate market access, as the generic medicines industry will only be able to deliver competitive and sustainable prices if they are ensured a high volume. In the future, the generic medicines industry will increasingly look to biosimilars and generic versions of orphan drugs to expand their business.

Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balieiro Filho, Ruy Gabriel; Rosenfeld, Rogerio

2004-12-01

There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments.

Optimal order policy in response to announced price increase for deteriorating items with limited special order quantity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Liang-Yuh; Wu, Kun-Shan; Yang, Chih-Te; Yen, Hsiu-Feng

2016-02-01

When a supplier announces an impending price increase due to take effect at a certain time in the future, it is important for each retailer to decide whether to purchase additional stock to take advantage of the present lower price. This study explores the possible effects of price increases on a retailer's replenishment policy when the special order quantity is limited and the rate of deterioration of the goods is assumed to be constant. The two situations discussed in this study are as follows: (1) when the special order time coincides with the retailer's replenishment time and (2) when the special order time occurs during the retailer's sales period. By analysing the total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity, the optimal order policy for each situation can be determined. We provide several numerical examples to illustrate the theories in practice. Additionally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis on the optimal solution with respect to the main parameters.

Introduction and Utilization of High Priced HCV Medicines across Europe; Implications for the Future

PubMed Central

de Bruijn, Winnie; Ibáñez, Cristina; Frisk, Pia; Bak Pedersen, Hanne; Alkan, Ali; Vella Bonanno, Patricia; Brkičić, Ljiljana S.; Bucsics, Anna; Dedet, Guillaume; Eriksen, Jaran; Fadare, Joseph O.; Fürst, Jurij; Gallego, Gisselle; Godói, Isabella P.; Guerra Júnior, Augusto A.; Gürsöz, Hakkı; Jan, Saira; Jones, Jan; Joppi, Roberta; Kerman, Saim; Laius, Ott; Madzikwa, Newman; Magnússon, Einar; Maticic, Mojca; Markovic-Pekovic, Vanda; Massele, Amos; Ogunleye, Olayinka; O'Leary, Aisling; Piessnegger, Jutta; Sermet, Catherine; Simoens, Steven; Tiroyakgosi, Celda; Truter, Ilse; Thyberg, Magnus; Tomekova, Kristina; Wladysiuk, Magdalena; Vandoros, Sotiris; Vural, Elif H.; Zara, Corinne; Godman, Brian

2016-01-01

Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs) boceprevir (BCV) and telaprevir (TVR) in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN). Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR) among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilization measured in defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 patients/quarter (DIQs) and expenditure in Euros/DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorized using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement). Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilization of the new PIs vs. ribavirin indicates differences in dual vs. triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilization of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1) with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices across countries, with their impact on budgets and patient outcomes monitored in the future to provide additional guidance. PMID:27516740

Issues in energy finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khokher, Zeigham Islam

As opposed to the well developed and understood equity markets, the energy markets are still in their infancy. The explosion of contracts, of both the primary and derivative types, are testament both to the existing size and the untapped growth potential of this exciting industry. However, because of its relative youth many basic issues in the energy markets remain unresolved. This thesis introduces some interesting questions and provides insights into these issues. Thematically, the chapters of this thesis are linked by an emphasis on valuation and risk management decisions. A contribution of this thesis is to show that subtle differences between the endogenous price process in our general equilibrium setting and the exogenous processes considered in earlier papers can generate significant differences in both financial and real option values. In addition to these valuation concerns there has been much debate about the corporate risk management function. Finance theory suggests that a value maximizing corporation should either be indifferent to hedging or, in the presence of certain imperfections, it should completely hedge all exposures. Both these extremes contradict empirical evidence. We show that existing corporate hedging behaviour is best explained in light of both physical market imperfections and directional predictions on future prices. While these speculative motives may arise from corporate hubris or genuine informational advantages, we argue that it would be difficult to implement private information in the absence of noise traders. Related to the risk management decision is the existence of futures risk premia. These premia have been thought to be cause by covariance with priced factors or due to the hedging demands of consumers and producers. This thesis argues that inventories serve as a signal of available quantity, which coupled with consumers fears regarding stockouts can induce a positive relationship between premia and inventories. In conclusion, we test this relationship using natural gas storage and futures price data and show empirical support for our hypothesis.

Price dynamics in political prediction markets

PubMed Central

Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

2009-01-01

Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodel, D.P.

Energy Secretary Donald P. Hodel told participants at the 4th International Oil conference in London that no one really knows the future demand for oil or whether oil prices will be $29 or $80 per barrel. DOE and consumption-based forecasts do little more than indicate trends, such as the effort by industrial countries to reduce their dependence on oil and achieve a more balanced energy supply. The current OPEC prices indicate that market forces do seek equilibrium, but there is no guarantee that producing nations will not overproduce or seek new markets through price competition. Hodel projects that oil usemore » will go down in industrial countries and increase in developing countries. He anticipates few new supplies of low-cost oil, but expects new developments in renewable energy sources by the year 2000.« less

Making the middle classes on shifting ground? Residential status, performativity and middle-class subjectivities in contemporary London.

PubMed

Benson, Michaela; Jackson, Emma

2017-06-01

This paper argues that shifts in access to housing - both in relation to rental and ownership - disrupt middle-class reproduction in ways that fundamentally influence class formation. While property ownership has had a long association with middle-class identities, status and distinction, an increasingly competitive rental market alongside inflated property prices has impacted on expectations and anxieties over housing futures. In this paper, we consider two key questions: (1) What happens to middle-class identities under the conditions of this wider structural change? (2) How do the middle classes variously manoeuvre within this? Drawing on empirical research conducted in London, we demonstrate that becoming an owner-occupier may be fractured along lines of class but also along the axes of age, wealth and timing, particularly as this relates to the housing market. It builds on understandings of residential status and place as central to the formation of class, orienting this around the recognition of both people and place as mutable, emphasizing that changing economic and social processes generate new class positionalities and strategies for class reproduction. We argue that these processes are writ large in practices of belonging and claims to place, with wider repercussions within the urban landscape. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes

PubMed Central

Brummitt, Charles D.; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J.

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

Prediction of future asset prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

2014-12-01

This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

PubMed

Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

SAMICS: Input data preparation. [Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.

1979-01-01

The Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards (SAMICS) provide standard formats, data, assumptions, and procedures for estimating the price that a manufacturer would have to charge for the product of a specified manufacturing process sequence. A line-by-line explanation is given of those standard formats which describe the economically important characteristics of the manufacturing processes and the technological structure of the companies and the industry. This revision provides an updated presentation of Format A Process Description, consistent with the October 1978 version of that form. A checklist of items which should be entered on Format A as direct expenses is included.

Formation of costs of high-rise objects of housing and civil purpose based on enlarged norms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorotyntseva, Anna; Ovsiannikov, Andrei; Bolgov, Vladimir

2018-03-01

When determining the cost of capital construction objects, for purposes of pre-design workings out and purposes of initial maximum initial price determination on tenders, construction price norms are used (CPNs). Modern CPNs are not designed to determine the value of high-rise buildings. It is necessary to adapt modern CPNs to get opportunity for the possibility to take into account special cost factors in determining the cost of high-rise buildings. The main ways can be: selection of new representative objects or application of additional correction factors.

Criteria for classification of competitive housing projects in terms of their environmental friendliness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nezhnikova, Ekaterina

2017-10-01

This article deals with social and economic essence of strategy of the housing industry development, both complex system of economic relations in field of production and consumption, which is regulated through the mechanism of prices and implemented through formation and realization of priority directions. Developed criteria for classification of housing construction projects as environmentally friendly and the quality criteria of variables for assessment of the environmental friendliness of residential buildings allowed to determine the ways of development of the industry on the basis of creation of competitive projects in interrelation with quality, environmental friendliness and price of consumption.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: A behavioral economics approach

PubMed Central

Smith, Tracy T.; Sved, Alan F.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Donny, Eric C.

2015-01-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price = cost / reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking—an assumption made by the unit price approach. PMID:25025523

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: a behavioral economics approach.

PubMed

Smith, Tracy T; Sved, Alan F; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Donny, Eric C

2014-11-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price=cost/reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking-an assumption made by the unit price approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequential Auctions with Partially Substitutable Goods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetsikas, Ioannis A.; Jennings, Nicholas R.

In this paper, we examine a setting in which a number of partially substitutable goods are sold in sequential single unit auctions. Each bidder needs to buy exactly one of these goods. In previous work, this setting has been simplified by assuming that bidders do not know their valuations for all items a priori, but rather are informed of their true valuation for each item right before the corresponding auction takes place. This assumption simplifies the strategies of bidders, as the expected revenue from future auctions is the same for all bidders due to the complete lack of private information. In our analysis we don't make this assumption. This complicates the computation of the equilibrium strategies significantly. We examine this setting both for first and second-price auction variants, initially when the closing prices are not announced, for which we prove that sequential first and second-price auctions are revenue equivalent. Then we assume that the prices are announced; because of the asymmetry in the announced prices between the two auction variants, revenue equivalence does not hold in this case. We finish the paper, by giving some initial results about the case when free disposal is allowed, and therefore a bidder can purchase more than one item.

Western redcedar—a forest resource in transition.

Treesearch

Charles L. Bolsinger

1979-01-01

Available information on inventory, growth, price, and consumption trends for western redcedar in Western United States is compiled. The future of western redcedar as a product resource and component of the forest is discussed.

Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keyes, Gilbert

1991-01-01

Information is given in viewgraph form on Space Station Freedom. Topics covered include future evolution, man-tended capability, permanently manned capability, standard payload rack dimensions, the Crystals by Vapor Transport Experiment (CVTE), commercial space projects interfaces, and pricing policy.

2010 Fuel Cell Technologies Market Report, June 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report summarizes 2010 data on fuel cells, including market penetration and industry trends. It also covers cost, price, and performance trends, along with policy and market drivers and the future outlook for fuel cells.

A review of GPU-based medical image reconstruction.

PubMed

Després, Philippe; Jia, Xun

2017-10-01

Tomographic image reconstruction is a computationally demanding task, even more so when advanced models are used to describe a more complete and accurate picture of the image formation process. Such advanced modeling and reconstruction algorithms can lead to better images, often with less dose, but at the price of long calculation times that are hardly compatible with clinical workflows. Fortunately, reconstruction tasks can often be executed advantageously on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), which are exploited as massively parallel computational engines. This review paper focuses on recent developments made in GPU-based medical image reconstruction, from a CT, PET, SPECT, MRI and US perspective. Strategies and approaches to get the most out of GPUs in image reconstruction are presented as well as innovative applications arising from an increased computing capacity. The future of GPU-based image reconstruction is also envisioned, based on current trends in high-performance computing. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

PubMed

Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

2005-02-08

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling of a Hybrid Electric Grid Using Weather Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

ahead scheduling, Weather forecast , Wind power , Photovoltaic Power 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 107 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF...cost can be reached by accurately anticipating the future renewable power productions. This thesis suggests the use of weather forecasts to establish...reached by accurately anticipating the future renewable power productions. This thesis suggests the use of weather forecasts to establish day-ahead

Integration of HTS Cables in the Future Grid of the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuijderduin, R.; Chevtchenko, O.; Smit, J. J.; Aanhaanen, G.; Melnik, I.; Geschiere, A.

Due to increasing power demand, the electricity grid of the Netherlands is changing. The future transmission grid will obtain electrical power generated by decentralized renewable sources, together with large scale generation units located at the coastal region. In this way electrical power has to be distributed and transmitted over longer distances from generation to end user. Potential grid issues like: amount of distributed power, grid stability and electrical loss dissipation merit particular attention. High temperature superconductors (HTS) can play an important role in solving these grid problems. Advantages to integrate HTS components at transmission voltages are numerous: more transmittable power together with less emissions, intrinsic fault current limiting capability, lower ac loss, better control of power flow, reduced footprint, less magnetic field emissions, etc. The main obstacle at present is the relatively high price of HTS conductor. However as the price goes down, initial market penetration of several HTS components (e.g.: cables, fault current limiters) is expected by year 2015. In the full paper we present selected ways to integrate EHV AC HTS cables depending on a particular future grid scenario in the Netherlands.

Future Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of Renewables Used to Meet U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

This brochure provides a brief overview of the report titled 'A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards.' The report evaluates the future costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy used to meet current state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). It also examines a future scenario where RPSs are expanded. The analysis examines changes in electric system costs and retail electricity prices, which include all fixed and operating costs, including capital costs for all renewable, non-renewable, and supporting (e.g., transmission and storage) electric sector infrastructure; fossil fuel, uranium, and biomass fuel costs; and plantmore » operations and maintenance expenditures. The analysis evaluates three specific benefits: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use. It also analyzes two other impacts, renewable energy workforce and economic development, and natural gas price suppression. The analysis finds that the benefits or renewable energy used to meet RPS polices exceed the costs, even when considering the highest cost and lowest benefit outcomes.« less

Introducing taxes, subsidies or both: the effects of various food pricing strategies in a web-based supermarket randomized trial.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; de Boer, Michiel R; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C

2012-05-01

Fiscal policies may form a solution in improving dietary intake. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of varying taxing and subsiding schemes to stimulate healthier food purchases. A randomized controlled trial with three levels of price reduction on healthy foods (no; 25%; 50%)×three levels of price increase on unhealthy foods (5%; 10%; 25%) factorial design was used. 150 participants were randomized into one of nine conditions and were asked to purchase groceries at a web-based supermarket. Data were collected in the Netherlands in January-February 2010 and analyzed using analysis of covariance. Subjects receiving 50% discount purchased significantly more healthy foods than subjects receiving no (mean difference=6.62 items, p<0.01) or 25% discount (mean difference=4.87 items, p<0.05). Moreover, these subjects purchased more vegetables (mean difference=821 g;p<0.05 compared to no discount). However, participants with the highest discount also purchased significantly more calories. No significant effects of the price increases on unhealthy foods were found. Price decreases are effective in stimulating healthy food purchases, but the proportion of healthy foods remains unaffected. Price increases up to 25% on unhealthier products do not significantly affect food purchases. Future studies are important to validate these results in real supermarkets and across different countries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2014-05-01

We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

PRICING, REIMBURSEMENT, AND HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF MEDICINAL PRODUCTS IN BULGARIA.

PubMed

Benisheva-Dimitrova, Tatyana; Sidjimova, Dobriana; Cherneva, Daniela; Kralimarkov, Nikolay

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the analysis, discussion, and challenges of the price and reimbursement process of medicinal products in Bulgaria in the period 2000-15 and health technology assessment (HTA) role in these processes. The dynamics of the reform, with respect to the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, are tracked by documentary review of regulations, articles, and reports in the European Union (EU), as well as analytical and historical analysis. Pricing and reimbursement processes have passed through a variety of committees between 2003 and 2012. Separate units for pricing and reimbursement of medicinal products were established in Bulgaria for the first time, in 2013, when an independent body, the National Council at Prices and Reimbursement of Medicinal Products, was set up to approve medicinal products with new international nonproprietary names (INN) for reimbursement in Bulgaria. Over the course of 2 years (2013-14), thirty-three new INNs were approved for reimbursement. In December 2015, a new HTA body was introduced, and assigned to the National Centre for Public Health and Analyses. Although Bulgaria has current legislation on pricing and reimbursement which is in accordance with the EU rules, there is no mechanism for reporting and monitoring these processes or the financial resources annually, so as to provide an overall objective assessment and analysis by year. Therefore, this financial assessment should become a national policy objective for the future.

Economic drivers of mineral supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Lorie A.; Sullivan, Daniel E.; Sznopek, John L.

2003-01-01

The debate over the adequacy of future supplies of mineral resources continues in light of the growing use of mineral-based materials in the United States. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the quantity of new materials utilized each year has dramatically increased from 161 million tons2 in 1900 to 3.2 billion tons in 2000. Of all the materials used during the 20th century in the United States, more than half were used in the last 25 years. With the Earth?s endowment of natural resources remaining constant, and increased demand for resources, economic theory states that as depletion approaches, prices rise. This study shows that many economic drivers (conditions that create an economic incentive for producers to act in a particular way) such as the impact of globalization, technological improvements, productivity increases, and efficient materials usage are at work simultaneously to impact minerals markets and supply. As a result of these economic drivers, the historical price trend of mineral prices3 in constant dollars has declined as demand has risen. When price is measured by the cost in human effort, the price trend also has been almost steadily downward. Although the United States economy continues its increasing mineral consumption trend, the supply of minerals has been able to keep pace. This study shows that in general supply has grown faster than demand, causing a declining trend in mineral prices.

Estimating procedure for major highway construction bid item cost : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-06-01

The present procedure for estimating construction bid item cost makes use of the quarterly weighted average unit price report coupled with engineering judgement. The limitation to this method is that this report format provides only the lowest bid da...

Bibliography of AV Materials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journal of Chemical Education, 1981

1981-01-01

Presented is the second part of a bibliographic listing of commercially available audiovisual materials for chemistry. Information includes producer (with addresses), catalog number, format (slides, cassettes, filmstrips, films), and price for items in these categories: matter and energy, nuclear chemistry, periodic table, solids and crystals,…

The effect of alcohol price on dependent drinkers' alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Falkner, Carolyn; Christie, Grant; Zhou, Lifeng; King, Julian

2015-12-18

To investigate the current purchasing behaviours of a group of dependent drinkers and their potential response to future increases in the price of alcohol. 115 clients undergoing medical detoxification completed an anonymous survey about their daily alcohol consumption, its cost, their response to potential price increases and strategies previously used when unable to afford alcohol. Mean and median number of standard drinks consumed per day was 24, at a median cost of $25 NZD (95%CI $22, $30). Thirty-six per cent (95%CI 26%, 46%) of the group bought alcohol at $1 or less per standard drink, and the median number of drinks consumed per day (30) by this group was significantly higher (p=0.0028) than the rest of the sample (22.5). The most common strategy used if no money was available to purchase alcohol was to forgo essentials. If facing a potential price rise, 77% (95%CI 69%, 85%) would switch wholly or partially to a cheaper product and 13% (95%CI 8%, 21%) would cut down their drinking. Although the majority of our group would be financially impacted by an increase in the minimum price per standard drink, any potential impacts would be most significant in those buying the cheapest alcohol (who also drink the most), suggesting that minimum pricing may be an important harm minimisation strategy in this group. A minimum price per standard drink would limit the possibility of switching to an alternate cheaper product and likely result in an overall reduction in alcohol consumption in this group. Stealing alcohol, or the use of non-beverage alcohol, were seldom reported as previous strategies used in response to unaffordable alcohol and fears of such are not valid reasons for rejecting minimum pricing to reduce general population consumption.

Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks

PubMed Central

van der Gronde, Toon; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A.

2017-01-01

Context Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. Method A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Findings Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. Conclusion A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines. PMID:28813502

Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks.

PubMed

Gronde, Toon van der; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Pieters, Toine

2017-01-01

Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines.

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers.

PubMed

Bidwell, L Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G; Tidey, Jennifer W; Colby, Suzanne M

2012-11-01

Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); O(max) (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); P(max) (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution, which were interpreted as "Persistence," reflecting insensitivity to escalating price, and "Amplitude," reflecting the absolute levels of consumption and price. These findings suggest a two factor structure of nicotine incentive value as measured via a demand curve. If supported, these findings have implications for understanding the relationships among individual demand indices in future behavioral economic studies and may further contribute to understanding of the nature of cigarette reinforcement. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subscription Agencies: A New Look at an Old Service.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Basch, N. Bernard; Warner, Alice Sizer

1988-01-01

Provides a historical overview of subscription agencies and describes the current situation. The largest companies are identified and issues for the future--computers and integrated systems, pricing, budgeting, optical technology, and printing technology--are discussed. (MES)

Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

2008-07-01

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen

This report evaluates the future costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy used to meet current state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). It also examines a future scenario where RPSs are expanded. The analysis examines changes in electric system costs and retail electricity prices, which include all fixed and operating costs, including capital costs for all renewable, non-renewable, and supporting (e.g., transmission and storage) electric sector infrastructure; fossil fuel, uranium, and biomass fuel costs; and plant operations and maintenance expenditures. The analysis evaluates three specific benefits: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use. It also analyzes two other impacts,more » renewable energy workforce and economic development, and natural gas price suppression. This analysis finds that the benefits or renewable energy used to meet RPS polices exceed the costs, even when considering the highest cost and lowest benefit outcomes.« less

Competition in the pharmaceutical industry: how do quality differences shape advertising strategies?

PubMed

de Frutos, Maria-Angeles; Ornaghi, Carmine; Siotis, Georges

2013-01-01

We present a Hotelling model of price and advertising competition between prescription drugs that differ in quality/side effects. Promotional effort results in the endogenous formation of two consumer groups: brand loyal and non-brand loyal ones. We show that advertising intensities are strategic substitutes, with the better quality drugs being the ones that are most advertised. This positive association stems from the higher rents that firms can extract from consumers whose brand loyalty is endogenously determined by promotional effort. The model's main results on advertising and pricing strategies are taken to the data. The latter consists of product level data on prices and quantities, product level advertising data, as well as the qualitative information on drug quality contained in the Orange Book compiled by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The empirical results provide strong support to the model's predictions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Has price competition changed hospital revenues and expenses in New York?

PubMed

Zwanziger, Jack; Mooney, Cathleen

2005-01-01

This study analyzes the factors that influenced hospital expenses and revenues prior to and following the enactment of the New York State Health Care Reform Act of 1996 (HCRA)-the period from 1994-1999. HCRA was expected to encourage price competition which in turn was anticipated to lower hospital revenues and expenses. We measured the differential effects on hospital revenues and expenses in markets with varying degrees of competition. We also measured the relationship between hospital revenues and expenses and the increased concentration resulting from the formation of local hospital systems. We found that revenues and expenses both grew more slowly for hospitals located in more competitive markets; hospital systems that increased concentration tended to have higher revenues. In the short run at least, price competition induced by HCRA did constrain both hospital expense and revenue growth, although the increase in hospital mergers countered this trend.

Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo

2010-09-01

Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.

Global Mapping of Provisioning Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, Lisa; Straatsma, Menno; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Attributing monetary value to ecosystem services for decision-making has become more relevant as a basis for decision-making. There are a number of problematic aspects of the calculations, including consistency of economy represented (e.g., purchasing price, production price) and determining which ecosystem subservices to include in a valuation. While several authors have proposed methods for calculating ecosystem services and calculations are presented for global and regional studies, the calculations are mostly broken down into biomes and regions without showing spatially explicit results. The key to decision-making for governments is to be able to make spatial-based decisions because a large spatial variation may exist within a biome or region. Our objective was to compute the spatial distribution of global ecosystem services based on 89 subservices. Initially, only the provisioning ecosystem service category is presented. The provisioning ecosystem service category was calculated using 6 ecosystem services (food, water, raw materials, genetic resources, medical resources, and ornaments) divided into 41 subservices. Global data sets were obtained from a variety of governmental and research agencies for the year 2005 because this is the most data complete and recent year available. All data originated either in tabular or grid formats and were disaggregated to 10 km cell length grids. A lookup table with production values by subservice by country were disaggregated over the economic zone (either marine, land, or combination) based on the spatial existence of the subservice (e.g. forest cover, crop land, non-arable land). Values express the production price in international dollars per hectare. The ecosystem services and the ecosystem service category(ies) maps may be used to show spatial variation of a service within and between countries as well as to specifically show the values within specific regions (e.g. countries, continents), biomes (e.g. coastal, forest), or hazardous regions (e.g. landslides, flood plains, war zones). A preliminary example of the provisioning ecosystem service category illustrates the valuation of deltaic regions and a second example illustrates the valuation of the subservice category of food production prices in flood zones. Future work of this research will spatially represent the calculations of the remaining three ecosystem service categories (regulating, habitat, cultural) and investigate the propagation of uncertainty of the input data to ecosystem service maps.

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

4% Yield Increase (HH4), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 4% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Dynamic Management of NOx and SO2 Emissions in the Texas and Mid-Atlantic Electric Power Systems and Implications for Air Quality.

PubMed

McDonald-Buller, Elena; Kimura, Yosuke; Craig, Michael; McGaughey, Gary; Allen, David; Webster, Mort

2016-02-02

Cap and trade programs have historically been designed to achieve annual or seasonal reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants. Emissions reductions may not be temporally coincident with meteorological conditions conducive to the formation of peak ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations. Integrated power system and air quality modeling methods were developed to evaluate time-differentiated emissions price signals on high ozone days in the Mid-Atlantic portion of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) Interconnection and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grids. Sufficient flexibility exists in the two grids with marked differences in demand and fuel generation mix to accommodate time-differentiated emissions pricing alone or in combination with a season-wide program. System-wide emissions reductions and production costs from time-differentiated pricing are shown to be competitive with those of a season-wide program on high ozone days and would be more cost-effective if the primary policy goal was to target emissions reductions on these days. Time-differentiated pricing layered as a complement to the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule had particularly pronounced benefits for the Mid-Atlantic PJM system that relies heavily on coal-fired generation. Time-differentiated pricing aimed at reducing ozone concentrations had particulate matter reduction co-benefits, but if particulate matter reductions are the primary objective, other approaches to time-differentiated pricing may lead to greater benefits.

Upgrade of optical WDM transport systems introducing linerates at 40 Gbit/s per channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneiders, Malte; Vorbeck, Sascha; Aust, Nora

2006-10-01

Driven by high growth rates of internet traffic the question of upgrading existing optical metro-, regio- and long haul transport networks introducing 40 Gbit/s/λ is one of the most important questions today and in the near future. Current WDM Systems in photonic networks are commonly operated at linerates of 2.5 and 10 Gbit/s/λ. Induced by market analyses and the historical development of transport systems some work has already been carried out to evaluate update scenarios from 10 to 40 Gbit/s channel data rates. Due to the inherent quadruplication of the bandwidth per channel, limitations due to linear and non-linear transmission impairments become stronger resulting in a highly increased complexity of link engineering, potentially increasing the capital and operational expenditures. A lot of work is therefore in progress, which targets at the relaxation of constraints for 40 Gbit/s transmission to find the most efficient upgrade strategies. One approach towards an increased robustness against signal distortions is the introduction of more advanced modulation formats. Different modulation schemes show strongly different optical WDM transmission characteristics. The choice of the appropriate format does not only depend on the technical requirements, but also on economical considerations as an increased transmitter- and receiver-complexity will drive the transponder price. This article presents investigations on different modulation formats for the upgrade of existing metro-/ regio and long haul transport networks. Tolerances and robustness against the main degrading effects dispersion, noise and nonlinearities are considered together with mitigation strategies like the adaptation of dispersion maps. Results from numerical simulations are provided for some of the most promising modulation formats like NRZ, RZ, CS-RZ, Optical Duobinary and DPSK.

Pricing Strategies to Encourage Availability, Purchase, and Consumption of Healthy Foods and Beverages: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Gittelsohn, Joel; Trude, Angela Cristina Bizzotto; Kim, Hyunju

2017-11-02

Food pricing policies to promote healthy diets, such as taxes, price manipulations, and food subsidies, have been tested in different settings. However, little consensus exists about the effect of these policies on the availability of healthy and unhealthy foods, on what foods consumers buy, or on the impact of food purchases on consumer health outcomes. We conducted a systematic review of studies of the effect of food-pricing interventions on retail sales and on consumer purchasing and consumption of healthy foods and beverages. We used MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the Cochrane Library to conduct a systematic search for peer-reviewed articles related to studies of food pricing policies. We selected articles that were published in English from January 2000 through December 2016 on the following types of studies: 1) real-world experimental studies (randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies, and natural experiments); 2) population studies of people or retail stores in middle-income and high-income countries; 3) pricing interventions alone or in combination with other strategies (price promotions, coupons, taxes, or cash-back rebates), excluding studies of vending-machine or online sales; and 4) outcomes studies at the retail (stocking, sales) and consumer (purchasing, consumption) levels. We selected 65 articles representing 30 studies for review. Sixteen pricing intervention studies that sought to improve access to healthy food and beverage options reported increased stocking and sales of promoted food items. Most studies (n = 23) reported improvement in the purchasing and consumption of healthy foods or beverages or decreased purchasing and consumption of unhealthy foods or beverages. Most studies assessed promotions of fresh fruits and vegetables (n = 20); however, these foods may be hard to source, have high perishability, and raise concerns about safety and handling. Few of the pricing studies we reviewed discouraged purchasing and consumption of unhealthy foods (n = 6). Many studies we reviewed had limitations, including lack of formative research, process evaluation, or psychosocial and health assessments of the intervention's impact; short intervention duration; or no assessment of food substitutions or the effects of pricing interventions on food purchasing and diets. Pricing interventions generally increased stocking, sales, purchasing, and consumption of promoted foods and beverages. Additional studies are needed to differentiate the potential impact of selected pricing strategies and policies over others.

Pricing Strategies to Encourage Availability, Purchase, and Consumption of Healthy Foods and Beverages: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Trude, Angela Cristina Bizzotto; Kim, Hyunju

2017-01-01

Introduction Food pricing policies to promote healthy diets, such as taxes, price manipulations, and food subsidies, have been tested in different settings. However, little consensus exists about the effect of these policies on the availability of healthy and unhealthy foods, on what foods consumers buy, or on the impact of food purchases on consumer health outcomes. We conducted a systematic review of studies of the effect of food-pricing interventions on retail sales and on consumer purchasing and consumption of healthy foods and beverages. Methods We used MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the Cochrane Library to conduct a systematic search for peer-reviewed articles related to studies of food pricing policies. We selected articles that were published in English from January 2000 through December 2016 on the following types of studies: 1) real-world experimental studies (randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies, and natural experiments); 2) population studies of people or retail stores in middle-income and high-income countries; 3) pricing interventions alone or in combination with other strategies (price promotions, coupons, taxes, or cash-back rebates), excluding studies of vending-machine or online sales; and 4) outcomes studies at the retail (stocking, sales) and consumer (purchasing, consumption) levels. We selected 65 articles representing 30 studies for review. Results Sixteen pricing intervention studies that sought to improve access to healthy food and beverage options reported increased stocking and sales of promoted food items. Most studies (n = 23) reported improvement in the purchasing and consumption of healthy foods or beverages or decreased purchasing and consumption of unhealthy foods or beverages. Most studies assessed promotions of fresh fruits and vegetables (n = 20); however, these foods may be hard to source, have high perishability, and raise concerns about safety and handling. Few of the pricing studies we reviewed discouraged purchasing and consumption of unhealthy foods (n = 6). Many studies we reviewed had limitations, including lack of formative research, process evaluation, or psychosocial and health assessments of the intervention’s impact; short intervention duration; or no assessment of food substitutions or the effects of pricing interventions on food purchasing and diets. Conclusion Pricing interventions generally increased stocking, sales, purchasing, and consumption of promoted foods and beverages. Additional studies are needed to differentiate the potential impact of selected pricing strategies and policies over others. PMID:29101767

Understanding the Development of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol in Scotland: A Qualitative Study of the Policy Process

PubMed Central

Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Hilton, Shona; Bonell, Chris; Bond, Lyndal

2014-01-01

Background Minimum unit pricing of alcohol is a novel public health policy with the potential to improve population health and reduce health inequalities. Theories of the policy process may help to understand the development of policy innovation and in turn identify lessons for future public health research and practice. This study aims to explain minimum unit pricing’s development by taking a ‘multiple-lenses’ approach to understanding the policy process. In particular, we apply three perspectives of the policy process (Kingdon’s multiple streams, Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory, Multi-Level Governance) to understand how and why minimum unit pricing has developed in Scotland and describe implications for efforts to develop evidence-informed policymaking. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with policy actors (politicians, civil servants, academics, advocates, industry representatives) involved in the development of MUP (n = 36). Interviewees were asked about the policy process and the role of evidence in policy development. Data from two other sources (a review of policy documents and an analysis of evidence submission documents to the Scottish Parliament) were used for triangulation. Findings The three perspectives provide complementary understandings of the policy process. Evidence has played an important role in presenting the policy issue of alcohol as a problem requiring action. Scotland-specific data and a change in the policy ‘image’ to a population-based problem contributed to making alcohol-related harms a priority for action. The limited powers of Scottish Government help explain the type of price intervention pursued while distinct aspects of the Scottish political climate favoured the pursuit of price-based interventions. Conclusions Evidence has played a crucial but complex role in the development of an innovative policy. Utilising different political science theories helps explain different aspects of the policy process, with Multi-Level Governance particularly useful for highlighting important lessons for the future of public health policy. PMID:24670519

HEADROOM APPROACH TO DEVICE DEVELOPMENT: CURRENT AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS.

PubMed

Girling, Alan; Lilford, Richard; Cole, Amanda; Young, Terry

2015-01-01

The headroom approach to medical device development relies on the estimation of a value-based price ceiling at different stages of the development cycle. Such price-ceilings delineate the commercial opportunities for new products in many healthcare systems. We apply a simple model to obtain critical business information as the product proceeds along a development pathway, and indicate some future directions for the development of the approach. Health economic modelling in the supply-side development cycle for new products. The headroom can be used: initially as a 'reality check' on the viability of the device in the healthcare market; to support product development decisions using a real options approach; and to contribute to a pricing policy which respects uncertainties in the reimbursement outlook. The headroom provides a unifying thread for business decisions along the development cycle for a new product. Over the course of the cycle attitudes to uncertainty will evolve, based on the timing and manner in which new information accrues. Within this framework the developmental value of new information can justify the costs of clinical trials and other evidence-gathering activities. Headroom can function as a simple shared tool to parties in commercial negotiations around individual products or groups of products. The development of similar approaches in other contexts holds promise for more rational planning of service provision.

2014 Wind Technologies Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Barbose, Galen

Wind power capacity additions in the United States rebounded in 2014, and continued growth through 2016 is anticipated. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—which is available for projects that began construction by the end of 2014. Wind additions are also being driven by recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, which have resulted in the lowest power sales prices ever seen in the U.S. wind sector. Growing corporate demand for wind energy and state-level policies play important roles as well. Expectations for continued technological advancementsmore » and cost reductions may further boost future growth. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond 2016 are uncertain. The PTC has expired, and its renewal remains in question. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on growth expectations. These trends, in combination with increasingly global supply chains, have limited the growth of domestic manufacturing of wind equipment. What they mean for wind power additions through the end of the decade and beyond will be dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions.« less

Projecting the Water Footprint Associated with Shale Resource Production: Eagle Ford Shale Case Study.

PubMed

Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Male, Frank; Scanlon, Bridget R; Reedy, Robert C; McDaid, Guinevere

2017-12-19

Production of oil from shale and tight reservoirs accounted for almost 50% of 2016 total U.S. production and is projected to continue growing. The objective of our analysis was to quantify the water outlook for future shale oil development using the Eagle Ford Shale as a case study. We developed a water outlook model that projects water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) and flowback and produced water (FP) volumes based on expected energy prices; historical oil, natural gas, and water-production decline data per well; projected well spacing; and well economics. The number of wells projected to be drilled in the Eagle Ford through 2045 is almost linearly related to oil price, ranging from 20 000 wells at $30/barrel (bbl) oil to 97 000 wells at $100/bbl oil. Projected FP water volumes range from 20% to 40% of HF across the play. Our base reference oil price of $50/bbl would result in 40 000 additional wells and related HF of 265 × 10 9 gal and FP of 85 × 10 9 gal. The presented water outlooks for HF and FP water volumes can be used to assess future water sourcing and wastewater disposal or reuse, and to inform policy discussions.

Outstanding Science Trade Books for Children in 1988.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Science and Children, 1989

1989-01-01

Lists annotations of books based on accuracy of contents, readability, format, and illustrations. Includes number of pages in each entry, price, and availability. Topics cover animals, biographies, space science, astronomy, archaeology, anthropology, earth and life sciences, medical and health sciences, physics, technology, and engineering. (RT)

The Data Dealers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenopir, Carol; Barry, Jeff

1997-01-01

Profiles 25 database distribution and production companies, all of which responded to a 1997 survey with information on 54 separate online, Web-based, or CD-ROM systems. Highlights increased competition, distribution formats, Web versions versus local area networks, full-text delivery, and pricing policies. Tables present a sampling of customers…

Getting into Children's Video.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Michael

1983-01-01

Lists videotape titles for preschoolers through preteens available to libraries in VHS and Beta formats for $100 or less, noting running times, release dates, and prices. Materials are categorized by companies serving educational market and home market, and commercial products found in retail stores are grouped by producer. (EJS)

48 CFR 12.303 - Contract format.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... a price evaluation adjustment for small disadvantaged business concerns is applicable (the... for emerging small businesses; (2) Block 18B for remittance address; (3) Block 19 for contract line item numbers; (4) Block 20 for schedule of supplies/services; or (5) Block 25 for accounting data; (c...

Applying rapid 'de-facto' HTA in resource-limited settings: experience from Romania.

PubMed

Lopert, Ruth; Ruiz, Francis; Chalkidou, Kalipso

2013-10-01

In attempting to constrain healthcare expenditure growth, health technology assessment (HTA) can enable policy-makers to look beyond budget impact and facilitate more rational decision-making. However lack of technical capacity and poor governance can limit use in some countries. Undertaking de facto HTA by adapting decisions taken in countries with established processes is a method that may be applied while building domestic HTA capacity. We explored the potential for applying this approach in Romania. As part of a review of the basic health benefits available to insured Romanians we examined the listing process and content of the Romanian drug reimbursement formulary. We assessed value for money indirectly by drawing on appraisals by UK's NICE, and for products considered cost effective in the UK, adjusting prices by the ratio of Romanian per capita GDP to UK per capita GDP. We found more than 30 of the top 50 medicines on the Romanian formulary unlikely to be cost-effective, suggesting that existing external reference pricing mechanisms may not be delivering good value for money. While not taking into account local costs or treatment patterns, absent local considerations of value for money, this method offers a guide for both drug selection and pricing. Until robust local HTA processes are established this approach could support further analysis of existing prices and pricing mechanisms. Applied more generally, it is arguably preferable to external reference pricing, product delisting or arbitrary price cuts, and may support the future development of more rigorous, evidence-based decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural gas-the missing link in the pricing chain can develop a life of its own

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Symonds, E.

When deputy treasury secretary R.T. McNamar addressed the May meeting of the National Foreign Trade Council in New York, he assured the assembled oilmen and bankers that further cuts of up to 20% should be expected in world oil prices. The puzzling feature is that the gas prices, which were for so long accused of undermining the oil market, are no longer brought into these discussions. Yet gas is the primary fuel over which governments have traditionally exercised the greatest control, and whose future movements must influence long-term world price levels as well as the near-term market for directly competitivemore » products such as heating and residual oils. On the domestic front, the latest of the gas industry's battle lines have been drawn around the long-lasting distortions of the 1954 ruling that the Federal Power Commission was obligated to devise and enforce as a method of controlling wellhead prices. As intended, gas then entered a long period of interstate sales below equilibrium prices, allowing it to capture one-third of the nation's energy market. But that share has now shrunk to approximately one-quarter of the market. This continuous decline was built into forecaster thinking during the long years of underpriced gas. The general assumption was that the decline in domestic supplies would be unbroken, and that prices would not be high enough to attract significant new supplies of supplemental gas. How far this assumption could be upset by decontrol remains an open question.« less

Cigarette tax and public health: what are the implications of financially stressed smokers for the effects of price increases on smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Martire, Kristy A; Mattick, Richard P; Doran, Christopher M; Hall, Wayne D

2011-03-01

This paper models the predicted impact of tobacco price increases proposed in the United States and Australia during 2009 on smoking prevalence in 2010 while taking account of the effects of financial stress among smokers on cessation rates. Two models of smoking prevalence were developed for each country. In model 1, prevalence rates were determined by price elasticity estimates. In model 2 price elasticity was moderated by financial stress. Each model was used to estimate smoking prevalence in 2010 in Australia and the United States. Proposed price increases resulted in a 1.89% and 7.84% decrease in smoking participation among low socio-economic status (SES) groups in the United States and Australia, respectively. Model 1 overestimated the number of individuals expected to quit in both the United States (0.13% of smokers) and Australia (0.36% of smokers) by failing to take account of the differential effects of the tax on financially stressed smokers. The proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress increased in both countries in 2010 (by 1.06% in the United States and 3.75% in Australia). The inclusion of financial stress when modelling the impact of price on smoking prevalence suggests that the population health returns of increased cigarette price will diminish over time. As it is likely that the proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress will also increase in 2010, future population-based approaches to reducing smoking will need to address this factor. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Robust Pricing of Transportation Networks Under Uncertainty

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Both public and private entities are concerned with the impacts of future toll revenue, and the effects of tolled facilities on system congestion. Due to the inherent complexity of transportation systems, it is impossible to predict travel demand and...

A Tool for Designing MnPASS Access Spacing

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-03-01

Dynamically priced High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes have been recently added to the traffic operations arsenal in an attempt to preserve infrastructure investment in the future by maintaining a control on demand. This study focuses on the operational ...

Faster, Better, Cheaper: A Decade of PC Progress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Walt

1997-01-01

Reviews the development of personal computers and how computer components have changed in price and value. Highlights include disk drives; keyboards; displays; memory; color graphics; modems; CPU (central processing unit); storage; direct mail vendors; and future possibilities. (LRW)

The Future of the Workplace in Texas: A Preliminary Identification of Planning Issues for Technical, Vocational, and Adult Postsecondary Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Back, Karla; And Others

During the past 15 years, fluctuations in the prevailing price of oil have had a profound effect on Texas' economic affairs and labor market. Efforts to forecast what the Texas labor market will be like in the future must allow for the diversity among the state's gulf coast, border, plains, eastern, metroplex, and central corridor regions.…

Survival of the hospital emergency department: strategic alternatives for the future.

PubMed

Widra, L S; Fottler, M D

1988-01-01

Diverse and pervasive environmental forces are reshaping hospital emergency services as hospitals strive to respond to consumer preferences related to cost and convenience. Complacency can no longer serve as a standard operating procedure for hospital emergency departments competing against lower-priced, consumer-oriented, free-standing facilities. Strategic alternatives, a five-step strategy for survival and growth, and a projection of future models of hospital emergency services are examined.

Comparative Perspectives on Futures in Education. Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Australian Comparative and International Education Society (10th, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, November 24-26, 1982).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liesch, James R., Ed.

The titles and authors of the 12 conference papers presented in this document are: (1) "China's Immediate Future: Renewed Cultural Borrowing" (R.F. Price); (2) "The Feminization of the Teaching Profession in Singapore" (Christine Inglis); (3) "Towards Equity and Efficiency in the Education System of Mauritius" (Helen…

A Robust Open Ascending-price Multi-unit Auction Protocol against False-name Bids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwasaki, Atsushi; Yokoo, Makoto; Terada, Kenji

This paper develops a new ascending-price multi-unit auction protocol that has following characteristics: (i) it has an open format, (ii) sincere bidding is an equilibrium strategy even if the marginal utilities of each agent can increase and agents can submit false-name bids. False-name bids are bids submitted under fictitious names such as multiple e-mail addresses, which can be done easily in the Internet. This is the first protocol that has these two characteristics. We show that our new protocol outperforms an existing protocol, which satisfies (ii), with respect to the social surplus and the seller's revenue.

Factors influencing ordering practices at Baltimore City carryouts: qualitative research to inform an obesity prevention intervention.

PubMed

Noormohamed, Aliya; Lee, Seung Hee; Batorsky, Benjamin; Jackson, Ashley; Newman, Sara; Gittelsohn, Joel

2012-01-01

Low-income African Americans bear a disproportionately high burden of chronic diseases associated with intakes of prepared foods, including those commonly found in carryout restaurants. This study collected formative data to investigate the main factors that influence ordering practices in carryout restaurants and to identify possible intervention strategies. Twenty in-depth interviews and two focus groups were conducted. From the perspectives of carryout customers and owners, the most salient factors affecting ordering practices were habit, price, taste, and food appearance. Study recommendations include manipulating prices and adding photographs of healthy items to carryout menus to encourage healthier ordering practices in carryout restaurants.

Minimum energy efficiency standards for appliances: Old and new economic rationales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Houde, Sebastien; Spurlock, C. Anna

In this study, we revisit Hausman and Joskow (1982)'s economic rationales for appliance minimum energy efficiency standards. In addition to the four market failures they argued could justify appliance standards--energy prices below marginal social cost, consumers underestimating energy prices, consumer discount rates above social discount rates, or principal agent problems--we discuss two additional market failures that are relevant and potentially economically important in this context: market power and innovation market failures. We highlight puzzles uncovered by recent empirical results, and suggest directions future research should take to better understand the normative implications of appliance standards.

Minimum energy efficiency standards for appliances: Old and new economic rationales

DOE PAGES

Houde, Sebastien; Spurlock, C. Anna

2016-09-01

In this study, we revisit Hausman and Joskow (1982)'s economic rationales for appliance minimum energy efficiency standards. In addition to the four market failures they argued could justify appliance standards--energy prices below marginal social cost, consumers underestimating energy prices, consumer discount rates above social discount rates, or principal agent problems--we discuss two additional market failures that are relevant and potentially economically important in this context: market power and innovation market failures. We highlight puzzles uncovered by recent empirical results, and suggest directions future research should take to better understand the normative implications of appliance standards.

Economic Assessment for Recycling Critical Metals From Hard Disk Drives Using a Comprehensive Recovery Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Diaz, Luis A.; Imholte, D. Devin; Lister, Tedd E.

2017-09-01

Since the 2011 price spike of rare earth elements (REEs), research on permanent magnet recycling has blossomed globally in an attempt to reduce future REE criticality. Hard disk drives (HDDs) have emerged as one feasible feedstock for recovering valuable REEs such as praseodymium, neodymium, and dysprosium. Nevertheless, current processes for recycling electronic waste only focus on certain metals as a result of feedstock and metal price uncertainties. In addition, there is a perception that recycling REEs is unprofitable. To shed some light on the economic viability of REE recycling from U.S. HDDs, this article combines techno-economic information of an electro-hydrometallurgical process with end-of-life HDD availability in a simulation model. The results showed that adding REE recovery to an HDD base and precious metal recovery process was profitable given current prices. Recovered REEs from U.S. HDDs could meet up to 5.2% rest-of-world (excluding China) neodymium magnet demand. Feedstock, aluminum, and gold prices are key factors to recycling profitability. REEs contributed 13% to the co-recycling profit.

Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment

PubMed Central

Nordhaus, William D.

2010-01-01

The science of global warming has reached a consensus on the high likelihood of substantial warming over the coming century. Nations have taken only limited steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since the first agreement in Kyoto in 1997, and little progress was made at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. The present study examines alternative outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages under different policy scenarios. It uses an updated version of the regional integrated model of climate and the economy (RICE model). Recent projections suggest that substantial future warming will occur if no abatement policies are implemented. The model also calculates the path of carbon prices necessary to keep the increase in global mean temperature to 2 °C or less in an efficient manner. The carbon price for 2010 associated with that goal is estimated to be $59 per ton (at 2005 prices), compared with an effective global average price today of around $5 per ton. However, it is unlikely that the Copenhagen temperature goal will be attained even if countries meet their ambitious stated objectives under the Copenhagen Accord. PMID:20547856

The influence of an online auction's product price and e-retailer reputation on consumers' perception, attitude, and behavioral intention.

PubMed

Wu, Wann-Yih; Huang, Po-Ching; Fu, Chen-Su

2011-06-01

Online auctions combine the conventional auction model with information technology. However, information asymmetry within such auctions causes risks and uncertainties that influence consumer purchase intentions. In this study, a 2 (product price: high vs. low) × 2 (e-retailer reputation: high vs. low) experimental design was used to understand whether the product price and e-retailer reputation will influence consumers' perceived risk, attitude toward the website and purchase intention. The results of this study indicate that perceived risk negatively influences consumer attitude toward the website and online purchase intention, while consumer attitude toward the website positively influences purchase intention. Moreover, involvement moderates the influence of product price and e-retailer reputation only on social risk but does not have a significant effect on consumer attitude toward the website. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of online auction users' behavior. Finally, the managerial implications, limitations and future research directions are also provided. © 2011 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2011 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Cohen, Deborah A; Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-07-01

We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in "food deserts" in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity.

Analysis of the influence of recent reforms in China: cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicines as a case history to provide future direction.

PubMed

Zeng, Wenjie; Zhen, Junjie; Feng, Mengying; Campbell, Stephen M; Finlayson, Alexander E; Godman, Brian

2014-07-01

Pharmaceutical expenditure has grown by 16% per annum in China, enhanced by incentives for physicians and hospitals. Hospital pharmacies dispense 80% of medicines in China, accounting for 46% of total hospital expenditure. Principal measures to moderate drug expenditure growth include pricing initiatives as limited demand-side measures. Assess current utilization and expenditure including traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs) between 2006 and 2012. Uncontrolled retrospective study of medicines to treat cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in one of the largest hospitals in southwest China. Utilization increased 3.3-fold for cerebrovascular medicines, greatest for TCMs, with expenditure increasing 4.85-fold. Low prices for generics were seen, similar to Europe. However, there was variable utilization of generics at 29-31% of total product volumes in recent years. There continued to be irrationality in prescribing with high use of TCMs, and the utilization of different medicines dropping significantly once they achieved low prices. Prices still have an appreciable impact on utilization in China. Potential measures similar to those implemented among western European countries could improve prescribing rationality and conserve resources.

Reference pricing of pharmaceuticals for Medicare: evidence from Germany, The Netherlands, and New Zealand.

PubMed

Danzon, Patricia M; Ketcham, Jonathan D

2004-01-01

This paper describes three prototypical systems of therapeutic reference pricing (RP) for pharmaceuticals--Germany, the Netherlands, and New Zealand--and examines their effects on the availability of new drugs, reimbursement levels, manufacturer prices, and out-of-pocket surcharges to patients. RP for pharmaceuticals is not simply analogous to a defined contribution approach to subsidizing insurance coverage. Although a major purpose of RP is to stimulate competition, theory suggests that the achievement of this goal is unlikely, and this is confirmed by the empirical evidence. Other effects of RP differ across countries in predictable ways, reflecting each country's system design and other cost-control policies. New Zealand's RP system has reduced reimbursement and limited the availability of new drugs, particularly more expensive drugs. Compared to these three countries, if RP were applied in the United States, it would likely have a more negative effect on prices of onpatent products because of the more competitive U.S. generic market, and on research and development (R&D) and the future supply of new drugs, because of the much larger U.S. share of global pharmaceutical sales.

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

2013-03-01

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

Comparison of physicochemical characteristics and consumer perception of rice samples with different countries of origin and prices.

PubMed

Jang, Eun-Hee; Lim, Seung-Taik; Kim, Sang Sook

2012-06-01

Rice is the only food item which is not liberalized in Korea. To prepare for future liberalization of the rice market in Korea, the physicochemical characteristics and consumer perception of four domestic rice samples were compared with those of 11 foreign rice samples. Additionally, the influences of country of origin (CO) and price on purchase intent (PI) and willingness to pay (WTP) were investigated. Consumer acceptance of rice samples from Japan was generally higher than that of rice samples from other countries. In an informed test, PI was affected by price and CO, while WTP was affected mostly by price. The PI decreased with the price provided while the WTP increased. In a blind test, consumers evaluated PI and WTP according to sensory liking. The PI was higher in the informed test than in the blind test in all domestic samples. Generally, consumer acceptance was highly correlated with fat acidity (r = - 0.76), protein content (r = - 0.72), and b value (r = - 0.64) of the rice samples. Further efforts to increase the quality of rice are recommended for survival in the global market after liberalization of rice, even though consumers showed loyalty for PI of domestic samples. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Strategies for increasing fruit and vegetable intake in grocery stores and communities: policy, pricing, and environmental change.

PubMed

Glanz, Karen; Yaroch, Amy L

2004-09-01

Grocery stores and community settings are important and promising venues for environmental, policy, and pricing initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable intake. This article examines supermarket-based and community environmental, policy, and pricing strategies for increasing intake of fruits and vegetables and identifies promising strategies, research needs, and innovative opportunities for the future. The strategies, examples, and research reported here were identified through an extensive search of published journal articles, reports, and inquiries to leaders in the field. Recommendations were expanded with input from participants in the CDC/ACS-sponsored Fruit and Vegetable, Environment Policy and Pricing Workshop held in September of 2002. Four key types of grocery-store-based interventions include point-of-purchase (POP) information; reduced prices and coupons; increased availability, variety, and convenience; and promotion and advertising. There is strong support for the feasibility of these approaches and modest evidence of their efficacy in influencing eating behavior. Church-based programs, child care center policies, and multisectoral community approaches show promise. Both descriptive and intervention research are needed to develop and evaluate more effective environmental strategies to increase F&V intake in grocery stores and communities. Innovative strategies, partnerships, grass roots action involving economic development for low-income communities, and sustainability are important considerations.

Bio-plastic (poly-hydroxy-alkanoate) production from municipal sewage sludge in the Netherlands: a technology push or a demand driven process?

PubMed

Bluemink, E D; van Nieuwenhuijzen, A F; Wypkema, E; Uijterlinde, C A

Valorisation of components from municipal 'waste' water and sewage sludge gets more and more attention in order to come to a circular economy by developing an efficient 'waste' to value concept. On behalf of the transition team 'Grondstoffenfabriek' ('Resource factory') a preliminary research was performed for all the Dutch water boards to assess the technical and economical feasibility of poly-hydroxy-alkanoate (PHA)-production from sewage sludge, a valuable product to produce bio-plastics. This study reveals that the production of bio-plastics from sewage sludge is feasible based on technical aspects, but not yet economically interesting, even though the selling price is relatively close to the actual PHA market price. (Selling price is in this particular case the indicative cost effective selling price. The cost effective selling price covers only the total production costs of the product.) Future process optimization (maximizing the volatile fatty acids production, PHA storage capacity, etc.) and market developments are needed and will result in cost reductions of the various sub-processes. PHA-production from sewage sludge at this stage is just a technology; every further research is needed to incorporate the backward integration approach, taking into account the market demand including associated product quality aspects.

Fast food price, diet behavior, and cardiometabolic health: Differential associations by neighborhood SES and neighborhood fast food restaurant availability in the CARDIA study.

PubMed

Rummo, Pasquale E; Meyer, Katie A; Green Howard, Annie; Shikany, James M; Guilkey, David K; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2015-09-01

Little research has addressed whether neighborhood context influences associations between fast food price, diet, and cardiometabolic health. We investigated these associations using 25 years of Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study data (n=4,469, observations=21,134). We found a negative association between fast food price and consumption, with stronger inverse associations in more (vs. less) deprived neighborhoods [3rd tertile: β=-0.68 (95% CI: (-0.85, -0.51); 1st tertile: β=-0.22 (95% CI: -0.42, -0.02); p-interaction-0.002], and a similar association for BMI [3rd tertile: β=-1.34 (95% CI: -1.54, -1.14); 1st tertile: β=-0.45 (95% CI: -0.66, -0.25); p-interaction<0.001], but not insulin resistance [3rd tertile: β=-0.07 (95% CI: -0.24, 0.09); 1st tertile: β=0.09 (95% CI: -0.08, 0.26); p-interaction=0.40]. We observed no modification of fast food price by fast food availability. Future research on obesity disparities should consider potential differences in the association between fast food prices and health outcomes across neighborhood socioeconomic levels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast food price, diet behavior, and cardiometabolic health: differential associations by neighborhood SES and neighborhood fast food restaurants in the CARDIA Study

PubMed Central

Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Rummo, Pasquale E.; Meyer, Katie A.; Howard, Annie Green; Shikany, James M.; Guilkey, David K.

2015-01-01

Little research has addressed whether neighborhood context influences associations between fast food price, diet, and cardiometabolic health. We investigated these associations using 25 years of Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study data (n=4,469, observations=21,134). We found a negative association between fast food price and consumption, with stronger inverse associations in more (vs. less) deprived neighborhoods [3rd tertile: β=−0.68 (95% CI: (−0.85, −0.51); 1st tertile: β=−0.22 (95% CI: −0.42, −0.02) ; p-interaction-0.002], and a similar association for BMI [3rd tertile: β=−1.34 (95% CI: −1.54, −1.14); 1st tertile: β=−0.45 (95% CI: −0.66, −0.25); p-interaction<0.001], but not insulin resistance [3rd tertile: β=− 0.07 (95% CI: −0.24, 0.09); 1st tertile: β=0.09 (95% CI: −0.08, 0.26); p-interaction=0.40]. We observed no modification of fast food price by fast food availability. Future research on obesity disparities should consider potential differences in the association between fast food prices and health outcomes across neighborhood socioeconomic levels. PMID:26319447

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 9, No. 2. Volume 9, No. 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowen, Brent (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); Scarpellini, Nanette (Editor)

2004-01-01

The following articles from the "Journal of Air Transportation" were processed: Future Requirements and Concepts for Cabins of Blended Wing Body Configurations:A Scenario Approach; Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry: A Marketing-Based Perspective; An Application of the Methodology for Assessment of the Sustainability of the Air Transport System; Modeling the Effect of Enlarged Seating Room on Passenger Preferences of Domestic Airlines in Taiwan; Developing a Fleet Standardization Index for Airline Pricing; and Future Airport Capacity Utilization in Germany: Peaked Congestion and/or Idle Capacity).

Practitioner perspectives matter: Public policy and private investment in the U.S. electric power sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barradale, Merrill Jones

This dissertation examines the influence of attitudes, beliefs, and preferences of energy industry practitioners on investment decision-making with regard to fuel choice for new electric power plants. The conclusions are based on in-depth interviews and an extensive online survey I conducted of 600-800 energy professionals in the U.S. power sector. Chapter 1 analyzes the impact of policy uncertainty on investment decision-making in renewable energy, using the federal production tax credit (PTC) and wind energy investment as an example. It is generally understood that the pattern of repeated expiration and short-term renewal of the PTC causes a boom-bust cycle in wind power plant investment in the U.S. This on-off pattern is detrimental to the wind industry, since ramp-up and ramp-down costs are high, and players are deterred from making long-term investments. The widely held belief that the severe downturn in investment during "off" years implies that wind power is unviable without the PTC turns out to be unsubstantiated: this chapter demonstrates that it is not the absence of the PTC that causes the investment downturn during "off" years, but rather the uncertainty over its return. Specifically, it is the dynamic of power purchase agreement negotiations in the face of PTC renewal uncertainty that drives investment volatility. This suggests that reducing regulatory uncertainty is a crucial component of effective renewable energy policy. The PTC as currently structured is not the only means, existing or potential, for encouraging wind power investment. Using data from my survey, various alternative policy incentives are considered and compared in terms of their perceived reliability for supporting long-term investment. Chapter 2 introduces the concept of expected payment of carbon as a factor in investment decision-making. The notion of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under potential climate change policy) is usually incorporated into investment decision-making by including a cost of carbon in the budget analysis. Most existing literature uses the expected price of carbon as a proxy for this cost, where expected price is a weighted average of various scenarios, often comparing policy proposals and representing either the price of traded permits or level of carbon tax, depending on the type of policy. The literature focuses on the minimum price of carbon required to influence power plant investment decisions. In contrast, this chapter introduces expected payment as a more accurate measure of carbon cost as it is perceived by industry practitioners. The expected payment of carbon is the expected price of carbon times the probability that this cost would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the 2005-2006 surge of activity in coal-fired power plant development and the subsequent decline in that interest. The energy industry has been slow to move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable resources. In chapter 3 I find evidence for a cognitive bias that plays a role in this momentum. Energy executives' expectations of future energy prices are strongly correlated with their own preferences, which I document for the case of natural gas prices. This is an example of wishful expectations, a form of overconfidence in which people are excessively optimistic over uncontrollable future outcomes. This implies energy executives with strong exposure to fossil fuels are excessively optimistic on future prices and so continue to invest despite the presence of superior alternatives.

The short-run impact of gas prices on toll road use.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

"One of the primary functions of transportation planning is to predict future travel : behavior. Using estimated travel patterns, planners can then help decision makers : select the array of projects that will best suit the needs of their community. ...

Future Fuel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Del

1991-01-01

Tough new environmental laws, coupled with fluctuating oil prices, are likely to prompt hundreds of school systems to examine alternative fuels. Literature reviews and interviews with 45 government, education, and industry officials provided data for a comparative analysis of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, methanol, and propane. (MLF)

24 CFR 1715.20 - Unlawful sales practices-regulatory provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... to deliver a Property Report to any person who exhibits an interest in buying or leasing a lot in the... represented future increase in value and the factual basis is certain, and; (3) The sales price of the offered...

Testing residential energy pricing in the Krakow, Poland, municipal district heat system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wisnewski, R.; Reeves, G.; Markiewicz, J.

1995-08-01

While understanding of the operation of the price and rebate mechanism may be imperfect in the United States, in Poland most of the necessary infrastructure simply does not exist. Of all the former Soviet-bloc countries, Poland has moved the quickest to a market economy; however, the stresses have been and continue to be significant, particularly on the pensioned. The energy sector of the economy is still centrally planned while the legal framework for a transition to a regulated market is created. Some utilities have made more rapid progress than others in the transition. This paper describes the first year ofmore » an experiment involving design, implementation, and analysis of a pilot pricing, conservation, and heating system control experiment in 264 apartments in four buildings. The results--and experience in the United States--will be used to guide the pricing decisions of the municipal district heat utility and the conservation and air quality strategies of the Krakow development authority. Development of a price incentive strategy involved considerations of public policy toward fixed-income occupants and ownership of energy metering. Thermostats were installed to permit occupant control, and building-level conservation and control techniques were implemented. Physical constraints required the use of German ``cost allocator`` metering technology at the apartment level. Final subsidy or ``pseudo-pricing`` design included-building-level incentives as well as apartment performance inducements. Results include insights on communication and cultural impacts and guidance for future testing as well as energy conservation effectiveness values.« less

Real Time Updating Genetic Network Programming for Adapting to the Change of Stock Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yan; Mabu, Shingo; Shimada, Kaoru; Hirasawa, Kotaro

The key in stock trading model is to take the right actions for trading at the right time, primarily based on the accurate forecast of future stock trends. Since an effective trading with given information of stock prices needs an intelligent strategy for the decision making, we applied Genetic Network Programming (GNP) to creating a stock trading model. In this paper, we propose a new method called Real Time Updating Genetic Network Programming (RTU-GNP) for adapting to the change of stock prices. There are three important points in this paper: First, the RTU-GNP method makes a stock trading decision considering both the recommendable information of technical indices and the candlestick charts according to the real time stock prices. Second, we combine RTU-GNP with a Sarsa learning algorithm to create the programs efficiently. Also, sub-nodes are introduced in each judgment and processing node to determine appropriate actions (buying/selling) and to select appropriate stock price information depending on the situation. Third, a Real Time Updating system has been firstly introduced in our paper considering the change of the trend of stock prices. The experimental results on the Japanese stock market show that the trading model with the proposed RTU-GNP method outperforms other models without real time updating. We also compared the experimental results using the proposed method with Buy&Hold method to confirm its effectiveness, and it is clarified that the proposed trading model can obtain much higher profits than Buy&Hold method.

Effect of food prices on the prevalence of obesity among young adults.

PubMed

Han, E; Powell, L M

2011-03-01

To examine the extent to which various food prices were associated with the obesity status of young adults. Retrospective cohort study of 6537 men and 5324 women in the USA using panel data from the Monitoring the Future Surveys (1992-2003), which were merged with two food-at-home and one food-away-from-home price measures from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association. Longitudinal individual random effect and fixed effect models were estimated. This study found that food prices did not have a significant effect on the prevalence of obesity among young female adults. For young adult men, an individual random effect estimator suggested that a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with a 13.2% decrease in the probability of obesity, but this effect lost its economic and statistical significance once individual fixed effects were controlled for in the estimation. Overall, the results imply that observed time-varying individual characteristics, such as working status, marital status and school enrolment status, may over-ride the effect of changes in food prices for young adults. More research employing longitudinal data is necessary to determine if food subsidies or taxes, particularly soft drink and fast food taxes or subsidies for fruit and vegetables, could be effective policy measures to curtail the increasing prevalence of obesity among young adults. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sex and race differences in young people's responsiveness to price and tobacco control policies

PubMed Central

Chaloupka, F.; Pacula, R. L.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To determine if there are differences in young people's responsiveness to price and tobacco control policies for population subgroups and to examine whether or not these differences, if they exist, can explain sex and racial differences in trends in the prevalence of smoking in young people in the United States.
DESIGN—Use cross-sectional and intertemporal variation in local and state tobacco control policies and prices to calculate demand responses to these policies using regression analysis techniques.
SUBJECTS—A nationally representative sample of American eighth grade (ages 13-14 years), 10th grade (15-16 years) and 12th grade (17-18 years) students obtained from the 1992-1994 Monitoring the Future surveys.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE—Thirty-day smoking prevalence.
RESULTS—Young men are much more responsive to changes in the price of cigarettes than young women. The prevalence elasticity for young men is almost twice as large as that for young women. Smoking rates of young black men are significantly more responsive to changes in price than young white men. Significant differences in responsiveness to particular tobacco control policies also exist. These differences, however, explain relatively little of the differences in smoking prevalence among young population subgroups.
CONCLUSIONS—Policymakers need to keep in mind that there is not a "one-size fits all" strategy for discouraging smoking among young people.


Keywords: adolescents; tobacco control policies; price; sex differences; racial differences PMID:10629242

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

2005-02-01

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

PubMed Central

Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

2005-01-01

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. PMID:15687505

Economic impact of off-line PC viewer for private folder management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Koun-Sik; Shin, Myung J.; Lee, Joo Hee; Auh, Yong H.

1999-07-01

We developed a PC-based clinical workstation and implemented at Asan Medical Center in Seoul, Korea, Hardwares used were Pentium-II, 8M video memory, 64-128 MB RAM, 19 inch color monitor, and 10/100Mbps network adaptor. One of the unique features of this workstation is management tool for folders reside both in PACS short-term storage unit and local hard disk. Users can copy the entire study or part of the study to local hard disk, removable storages, or CD recorder. Even the images in private folders in PACS short-term storage can be copied to local storage devices. All images are saved as DICOM 3.0 file format with 2:1 lossless compression. We compared the prices of copy films and storage medias considering the possible savings of expensive PACS short- term storage and network traffic. Price savings of copy film is most remarkable in MR exam. Price savings arising from minimal use of short-term unit was 50,000 dollars. It as hard to calculate the price savings arising from the network usage. Off-line PC viewer is a cost-effective way of handling private folder management under the PACS environment.

New Price, New Hope? An Examination of the Effects of Doubling the Ticket Price in UK Lotto.

PubMed

Forrest, David; Gulley, O David

2018-03-01

The UK Lotto game was introduced in November 1994 with a standard 6/49 format and an entry fee of £1 per ticket. After several years, revenue began to fall despite extensive publicity and a variety of inducements. By 2013, nominal weekly revenue was less than half the 1995 level. In October 2013, the operator doubled the price of a ticket to £2 and made a number of changes to the pay-out structure of smaller prizes. The intent of the changes was to reverse the long downward trend in game revenue by encouraging higher jackpots and offering more pay-out opportunities for each ticket. We use draw by draw revenue and other data to evaluate how players responded to these changes and find that, while ticket sales fell dramatically, total revenue rose following the changes. Primarily this appears to have been the consequence of increased frequency of rollovers (and therefore of more frequent high jackpot draws) rather than ticket price inelasticity. However, although there was a short-term gain in revenue, the changes did not arrest, and indeed seem to have accentuated, the long-run trend decrease in the revenue generated by the game.

Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive large oil prices. Chinese oil demand is not responsible for large increases in oil prices; nor are they caused by behavioral idiosyncrasies by oil traders. Finally, oil will be treated largely as a financial asset so long as interest rates are held near their all-time lows.