Evaluation of the effects of sea-level change and coastal canal management on saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer of south Florida, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; Sifuentes, D. F.; White, J.

2015-12-01

Sea-level increases are expected to have an effect on the position of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida as a result of the low topographic relief of the area and high rates of groundwater withdrawal from the aquifer. To study the effects that future sea-level increases will have on saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida, a three-dimensional, variable-density, groundwater-flow and transport model was developed. The model was calibrated to observed groundwater heads and chloride concentrations for a 62-year period that includes historic increases in sea level, development of a surface-water management system to control flooding, and increases in groundwater withdrawals as the area transitioned from agricultural to urban land uses. Sensitivity analyses indicate that downward leakage of saltwater from coastal canals and creeks was the primary source of saltwater to the Biscayne aquifer during the last 62-years in areas where the surface-water system is not actively managed and is tidally influenced. In areas removed from the coastal canals and creeks or under active surface-water management, historic groundwater withdrawals were the primary cause of saltwater intrusion into the aquifer. Simulation of future conditions suggests that possible increases in sea level will result in additional saltwater intrusion. Model scenarios suggest that additional saltwater intrusion will be greatest in areas where coastal canals and creeks were historically the primary source of seawater. Future saltwater intrusion in those areas, however, may be reduced by relocation of salinity-control structures.

Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

PubMed

Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

2014-09-28

The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

Systems and Methods for Automated Vessel Navigation Using Sea State Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huntsberger, Terrance L. (Inventor); Howard, Andrew B. (Inventor); Reinhart, Rene Felix (Inventor); Aghazarian, Hrand (Inventor); Rankin, Arturo (Inventor)

2017-01-01

Systems and methods for sea state prediction and autonomous navigation in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes a method of predicting a future sea state including generating a sequence of at least two 3D images of a sea surface using at least two image sensors, detecting peaks and troughs in the 3D images using a processor, identifying at least one wavefront in each 3D image based upon the detected peaks and troughs using the processor, characterizing at least one propagating wave based upon the propagation of wavefronts detected in the sequence of 3D images using the processor, and predicting a future sea state using at least one propagating wave characterizing the propagation of wavefronts in the sequence of 3D images using the processor. Another embodiment includes a method of autonomous vessel navigation based upon a predicted sea state and target location.

Systems and Methods for Automated Vessel Navigation Using Sea State Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aghazarian, Hrand (Inventor); Reinhart, Rene Felix (Inventor); Huntsberger, Terrance L. (Inventor); Rankin, Arturo (Inventor); Howard, Andrew B. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

Systems and methods for sea state prediction and autonomous navigation in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes a method of predicting a future sea state including generating a sequence of at least two 3D images of a sea surface using at least two image sensors, detecting peaks and troughs in the 3D images using a processor, identifying at least one wavefront in each 3D image based upon the detected peaks and troughs using the processor, characterizing at least one propagating wave based upon the propagation of wavefronts detected in the sequence of 3D images using the processor, and predicting a future sea state using at least one propagating wave characterizing the propagation of wavefronts in the sequence of 3D images using the processor. Another embodiment includes a method of autonomous vessel navigation based upon a predicted sea state and target location.

Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

2012-01-01

One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

PubMed

Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

2017-08-15

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Compact, Lightweight Dual-Frequency Microstrip Antenna Feed for Future Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Salinity Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yueh, Simon; Wilson, William J.; Njoku, Eni; Dinardo, Steve; Hunter, Don; Rahmat-Samii, Yahya; Kona, Keerti S.; Manteghi, Majid

2006-01-01

The development of a compact, lightweight, dual-frequency antenna feed for future soil moisture and sea surface salinity (SSS) missions is described. The design is based on the microstrip stacked-patch array (MSPA) to be used to feed a large lightweight deployable rotating mesh antenna for spaceborne L-band (approx.1 GHz) passive and active sensing systems. The design features will also enable applications to airborne soil moisture and salinity remote sensing sensors operating on small aircrafts. This paper describes the design of stacked patch elements and 16-element array configuration. The results from the return loss, antenna pattern measurements and sky tests are also described.

Compact, Lightweight Dual- Frequency Microstrip Antenna Feed for Future Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Salinity Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yueh, Simon H.; Wilson, William J.; Njoku, Eni; Hunter, Don; Dinardo, Steve; Kona, Keerti S.; Manteghi, Majid; Gies, Dennis; Rahmat-Samii, Yahya

2004-01-01

The development of a compact, lightweight, dual frequency antenna feed for future soil moisture and sea surface salinity (SSS) missions is described. The design is based on the microstrip stacked-patch array (MSPA) to be used to feed a large lightweight deployable rotating mesh antenna for spaceborne L-band (approx. 1 GHz) passive and active sensing systems. The design features will also enable applications to airborne sensors operating on small aircrafts. This paper describes the design of stacked patch elements, 16-element array configuration and power-divider beam forming network The test results from the fabrication of stacked patches and power divider were also described.

Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates melting of sea ice. Hence, the change in seasonality and the associated change in feedback strength is an integral part of the positive surface albedo feedback leading to Arctic amplification and diminishing sea ice cover in the next century when global climate warms.

Calving seismicity from iceberg-sea surface interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholomaus, T.C.; Larsen, C.F.; O'Neel, S.; West, M.E.

2012-01-01

Iceberg calving is known to release substantial seismic energy, but little is known about the specific mechanisms that produce calving icequakes. At Yahtse Glacier, a tidewater glacier on the Gulf of Alaska, we draw upon a local network of seismometers and focus on 80 hours of concurrent, direct observation of the terminus to show that calving is the dominant source of seismicity. To elucidate seismogenic mechanisms, we synchronized video and seismograms to reveal that the majority of seismic energy is produced during iceberg interactions with the sea surface. Icequake peak amplitudes coincide with the emergence of high velocity jets of water and ice from the fjord after the complete submergence of falling icebergs below sea level. These icequakes have dominant frequencies between 1 and 3 Hz. Detachment of an iceberg from the terminus produces comparatively weak seismic waves at frequencies between 5 and 20 Hz. Our observations allow us to suggest that the most powerful sources of calving icequakes at Yahtse Glacier include iceberg-sea surface impact, deceleration under the influence of drag and buoyancy, and cavitation. Numerical simulations of seismogenesis during iceberg-sea surface interactions support our observational evidence. Our new understanding of iceberg-sea surface interactions allows us to reattribute the sources of calving seismicity identified in earlier studies and offer guidance for the future use of seismology in monitoring iceberg calving.

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

Ice Sheet and Sea Ice Observations from Unmanned Aircraft Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crocker, R. I.; Maslanik, J. A.

2011-12-01

A suite of sensors has been assembled to map ice sheet and sea ice surface topography with fine-resolution from small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This payload is optimized to provide coincident surface elevation and imagery data, and with its low cost and ease of reproduction, it has the potential to become a widely-distributed observational resource to complement polar manned-aircraft and satellite missions. To date, it has been deployed to map ice sheet elevations near Jakobshavn Isbræ in Greenland, and to measure sea ice freeboard and roughness in Fram Strait off the coast of Svalbard. Data collected during these campaigns have facilitate a detailed assessment of the system's surface elevation measurement accuracy, and provide a glimpse of the summer 2009 Fram Strait sea ice conditions. These findings are presented, along with a brief overview of our future Arctic UAS operations.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.

2014-02-01

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature: Workshop-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoku, E. G.

1984-01-01

Global accuracies and error characteristics of presently orbiting satellite sensors are examined. The workshops are intended to lead to a better understanding of present capabilities for sea surface temperature measurement and to improve measurement concepts for the future. Data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AVHRR and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer is emphasized. Some data from the High Resolution Infrared Sounder HIRS and AVHRR are also examined. Comparisons of satellite data with ship and eXpendable BathyThermograph XBT measurement show standard deviations in the range 0.5 to 1.3 C with biases of less than 0.4 C, depending on the sensor, ocean region, and spatial/temporal averaging. The Sea Surface Temperature SST anomaly maps show good agreement in some cases, but a number of sensor related problems are identified.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-10-22

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Error trends in SASS winds as functions of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. T.

1983-01-01

Wind speed measurements obtained with the scatterometer instrument aboard the Seasat satellite are compared equivalent neutral wind measurements obtained from ship reports in the western N. Atlantic and eastern N. Pacific where the concentration of ship reports are high and the ranges of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature are large. It is found that at low wind speeds the difference between satellite measurements and surface reports depends on sea surface temperature. At wind speeds higher than 8 m/s the dependence was greatly reduced. The removal of systematic errors due to fluctuations in atmospheric stability reduced the r.m.s. difference from 1.7 m/s to 0.8 m/s. It is suggested that further clarification of the effects of fluctuations in atmospheric stability on Seasat wind speed measurements should increase their reliability in the future.

Impact of the Sun on Remote Sensing of Sea Surface Salinity from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeVine, David M; Abraham, Saji; Wentz, F; Lagerloef, G S

2005-01-01

The sun is a sufficiently strong source of radiation at L-band to be an important source of interference for radiometers on future satellite missions such as SMOS, Aquarius, and Hydros designed to monitor soil moisture and sea surface salinity. Radiation from the sun can impact passive remote sensing systems in several ways, including line-of-sight radiation that comes directly from the sun and enters through antenna side lobes and radiation that is reflected from the surface to the radiometer. Examples are presented in the case of Aquarius, a pushbroom radiometer with three beams designed to monitor sea surface salinity. Near solar minimum, solar contamination is not a problem unless the sun enters near the main beam. But near solar maximum, contamination from the sun equivalent to a change of salinity on the order of 0.1 psu can occur even when the signal enters in sidelobes far from the main beam.

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

2012-01-01

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Re-initiation of bottom water formation in the East Sea (Japan Sea) in a warming world.

PubMed

Yoon, Seung-Tae; Chang, Kyung-Il; Nam, SungHyun; Rho, TaeKeun; Kang, Dong-Jin; Lee, Tongsup; Park, Kyung-Ae; Lobanov, Vyacheslav; Kaplunenko, Dmitry; Tishchenko, Pavel; Kim, Kyung-Ryul

2018-01-25

The East Sea (Japan Sea), a small marginal sea in the northwestern Pacific, is ventilated deeply down to the bottom and sensitive to changing surface conditions. Addressing the response of this marginal sea to the hydrological cycle and atmospheric forcing would be helpful for better understanding present and future environmental changes in oceans at the global and regional scales. Here, we present an analysis of observations revealing a slowdown of the long-term deepening in water boundaries associated with changes of water formation rate. Our results indicate that bottom (central) water formation has been enhanced (reduced) with more (less) oxygen supply to the bottom (central) layer since the 2000s. This paper presents a new projection that allows a three-layered deep structure, which retains bottom water, at least until 2040, contrasting previous results. This projection considers recent increase of slope convections mainly due to the salt supply via air-sea freshwater exchange and sea ice formation and decrease of open-ocean convections evidenced by reduced mixed layer depth in the northern East Sea, resulting in more bottom water and less central water formations. Such vigorous changes in water formation and ventilation provide certain implications on future climate changes.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

Open-source algorithm for detecting sea ice surface features in high-resolution optical imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Nicholas C.; Polashenski, Chris M.

2018-04-01

Snow, ice, and melt ponds cover the surface of the Arctic Ocean in fractions that change throughout the seasons. These surfaces control albedo and exert tremendous influence over the energy balance in the Arctic. Increasingly available meter- to decimeter-scale resolution optical imagery captures the evolution of the ice and ocean surface state visually, but methods for quantifying coverage of key surface types from raw imagery are not yet well established. Here we present an open-source system designed to provide a standardized, automated, and reproducible technique for processing optical imagery of sea ice. The method classifies surface coverage into three main categories: snow and bare ice, melt ponds and submerged ice, and open water. The method is demonstrated on imagery from four sensor platforms and on imagery spanning from spring thaw to fall freeze-up. Tests show the classification accuracy of this method typically exceeds 96 %. To facilitate scientific use, we evaluate the minimum observation area required for reporting a representative sample of surface coverage. We provide an open-source distribution of this algorithm and associated training datasets and suggest the community consider this a step towards standardizing optical sea ice imagery processing. We hope to encourage future collaborative efforts to improve the code base and to analyze large datasets of optical sea ice imagery.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes.

PubMed

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-05-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30-80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

PubMed Central

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-01-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30–80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species. PMID:26045957

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Impact of winter cooling on the northern part of the Black Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savchenko, Anatolii

2016-07-01

Climate change in the future may have a negative impact on many countries due to the increasing surface temperature and sea level rise. Probably, unprecedented largest positive trend of surface temperature, which observed since the mid XX century, has associated with increasing human activities around the world. Moreover, this warming will continue in this century, and at the end of the XXI century will be 2 - 5 ºC. Thus, investigation and monitoring of current climate are very important and necessary tasks. Regional model data (downscaling) and satellite data are used, because of underdeveloped network of meteorological stations in the northern part of the Black Sea region. Experiment of downscaling was carried out for the Black Sea region with a high spatial resolution of 0.22° x 0.22° for 1958 - 2007(daily values). For the Black Sea were also used satellite data of sea surface temperature(SST) from MyOcean-2 Project, which CNR(Rome) has reprocessed Pathfinder V5.2 (PFV52) AVHRR data over period 1981 - 2012 with daily gap-free maps (L4) at the original PFV52 resolution at 0.04° x 0.04°. Correlation between satellite SST and surface temperature from regional model climate are amounted 0,99. Thus, surface temperature of model and satellite data for the Black Sea is much correlated between yourself. The following integral characteristics of the Black Sea are referred to the area of sea limited by the 44 - 47º N and 28 - 34º E. Maximum cooling of the north-western part of the Black Sea in winter is occurs after invasion of cold air across the northern border of the basin. In addition, this water area is also interesting in the presence of her huge oil and gas reserves, as well as the construction of liquefied gas (crude oil) terminals. The maximum values of total heat flux (sensible + latent heat fluxes= Q) corresponding to the minimum values of SST are observed during the periods of the negative phase of the NAO. Besides, fluxes with extreme days P (Q) = 95% (the number of which is 5% of the total number of winter days) contribute ≈ 16 - 18% of the total heat flux during the winter, and with P (Q) = 90% - approximately 30%. Typical synoptic situation of extreme winter cooling P (Q) = 95% is presence of anticyclone in the district of Carpathian Mountains. North-easterly flow of cold air at high velocities near-surface wind leads to extreme total heat flux and decreasing SST. Satellite images of clouds well illustrate such cases as, for example, cold air invasion to the Black Sea area on January 23, 2006 (Satellite TERRA). Because of increase of risk associated with climate change, this topic is particularly relevant for the marine area, which is subjected to strong weathering during extreme events in winter. The monitoring of this area will allow reducing the damage from extreme natural events in the future.

New insights into modeling an organic mass fraction of sea spray aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meskhidze, N.; Gantt, B.

2010-12-01

As the study of climate change progresses, a need to separate the effects of natural and anthropogenic processes becomes essential in order to correctly forecast the future climate. Due to their massive source regions underlying an atmosphere with low aerosol concentration, marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are extremely important for the Earth’s radiative budget, regional air quality and biogeochemical cycling of elements. Measurements of freshly-emitted sea spray have revealed that bubble bursting processes, largely responsible for the production of sea salt aerosol, also control sea-to-air transfer of marine organic matter. It has been established that the organic mass fraction of sea spray can be a function of sea-water composition (e.g., concentrations of Chlorophyll-a, [Chl-a], dissolved organic carbon, [DOC], particulate organic carbon, [POC], types of organic carbon, and the amount of surfactants). Current paramaterizations of marine primary organic aerosol emissions use remotely sensed [Chl-a] data as a proxy for oceanic biological activity. However, it has also been shown that the path length, size, and lifetime of bubbles in seawater as well as spatial coverage of seawater surface by streaks or slicks (visible film of a roughly 50 μm thick layer, highly enriched in organics) can have dramatic effect on organic mass fraction of sea spray (OCss). Dynamics of bubble entrainment and the level of microlayer enrichment by organics relative to the underlying bulk water can be controlled by surface wind speed. For bubble entrainment, high winds can increase rising bubble path length and therefore the amount of organics scavenged by the bubble. However, when the surface wind speeds exceed 8 m s-1 breaking of ocean waves can entirely destroy surface organic films and diminish the amount of organics leaving the sea. Despite the probable impact of wind speed, existing parameterizations do not consider the wind speed dependence of OCss. In this study we use remotely sensed data for ocean slick coverage and surface wind speed in conjunction with an upwind averaged concentrations of [Chl-a], [DOC] and [POC] to derive marine primary organic aerosol emission function. Derived empirical relationships between the aerosol and ocean/meteorological data are then compared to observed OCss at Mace Head and Point Reyes National Seashore. MATLAB curve fitting tool revealed that multi-variable regression analysis (with both wind speed and [Chl-a]) yields a significant improvement between model predicted and observed submicron fraction of OCss. The coefficient of determination increased from R2=0.1 for previous parameterizations to R2=0.6. Based on the results of this study we propose that in addition to sea-water composition, future parameterizations of marine primary organic aerosol emissions should include sea spray organic mass fraction dependence on surface wind speed.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Whitecap coverage from aerial photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Austin, R. W.

1970-01-01

A program for determining the feasibility of deriving sea surface wind speeds by remotely sensing ocean surface radiances in the nonglitter regions is discussed. With a knowledge of the duration and geographical extent of the wind field, information about the conventional sea state may be derived. The use of optical techniques for determining sea state has obvious limitations. For example, such means can be used only in daylight and only when a clear path of sight is available between the sensor and the surface. However, sensors and vehicles capable of providing the data needed for such techniques are planned for the near future; therefore, a secondary or backup capability can be provided with little added effort. The information currently being sought regarding white water coverage is also of direct interest to those working with passive microwave systems, the study of energy transfer between winds and ocean currents, the aerial estimation of wind speeds, and many others.

Potential contribution of surface-dwelling Sargassum algae to deep-sea ecosystems in the southern North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Philip; Minzlaff, Ulrike; Schoenle, Alexandra; Schwabe, Enrico; Hohlfeld, Manon; Jeuck, Alexandra; Brenke, Nils; Prausse, Dennis; Rothenbeck, Marcel; Brix, Saskia; Frutos, Inmaculada; Jörger, Katharina M.; Neusser, Timea P.; Koppelmann, Rolf; Devey, Colin; Brandt, Angelika; Arndt, Hartmut

2018-02-01

Deep-sea ecosystems, limited by their inability to use primary production as a source of carbon, rely on other sources to maintain life. Sedimentation of organic carbon into the deep sea has been previously studied, however, the high biomass of sedimented Sargassum algae discovered during the VEMA Transit expedition in 2014/2015 to the southern North Atlantic, and its potential as a regular carbon input, has been an underestimated phenomenon. To determine the potential for this carbon flux, a literature survey of previous studies that estimated the abundance of surface water Sargassum was conducted. We compared these estimates with quantitative analyses of sedimented Sargassum appearing on photos taken with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) directly above the abyssal sediment during the expedition. Organismal communities associated to Sargassum fluitans from surface waters were investigated and Sargassum samples collected from surface waters and the deep sea were biochemically analyzed (fatty acids, stable isotopes, C:N ratios) to determine degradation potential and the trophic significance within deep-sea communities. The estimated Sargassum biomass (fresh weight) in the deep sea (0.07-3.75 g/m2) was several times higher than that estimated from surface waters in the North Atlantic (0.024-0.84 g/m2). Biochemical analysis showed degradation of Sargassum occurring during sedimentation or in the deep sea, however, fatty acid and stable isotope analysis did not indicate direct trophic interactions between the algae and benthic organisms. Thus, it is assumed that components of the deep-sea microbial food web form an important link between the macroalgae and larger benthic organisms. Evaluation of the epifauna showed a diverse nano- micro-, meio, and macrofauna on surface Sargassum and maybe transported across the Atlantic, but we had no evidence for a vertical exchange of fauna components. The large-scale sedimentation of Sargassum forms an important trophic link between surface and benthic production and has to be further considered in the future as a regular carbon input to the deep-sea floor in the North Atlantic.

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

Preliminary results on ocean dynamics from Skylab and their implications for future spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayes, J.; Pierson, W. J.; Cardone, V. J.

1975-01-01

The instrument aboard Skylab designated S193 - a combined passive and active microwave radar system acting as a radiometer, scatterometer, and altimeter - is used to measure the surface vector wind speeds in the planetary boundary layer over the oceans. Preliminary results corroborate the hypothesis that sea surface winds in the planetary boundary layer can be determined from satellite data. Future spacecraft plans for measuring a geoid with an accuracy up to 10 cm are discussed.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr(-1) (range 0.01-0.09°C yr(-1)); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr−1 (range 0.01–0.09°C yr−1); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. PMID:25589483

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Xie, Jun; Ge, Qian

2017-02-01

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7-10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Applications of Future NASA Decadal Missions for Observing Earth's Land and Water Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Hook, Simon; Brown, Molly E.; Tzortziou, Maria A.; Carroll, Mark; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Omar, Ali

2013-01-01

Misson Objective: To collect altimetry data of the Earth's surface optimized to measure ice sheet elevation change and sea ice thickness, while also generating an estimate of global vegetation biomass.

Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

2014-11-01

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air-sea coupling in regional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziqian; Duan, Anmin; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

Based on the conventional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the air-sea coupled mode WRF-OMLM, we investigate the potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating by the air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Results indicate that the TP heating significantly enhances the southwesterly monsoon circulation over the northern Indian Ocean and the South Asia subcontinent. The intensified southwesterly wind cools the sea surface mainly through the wind-evaporation-SST (sea surface temperature) feedback. Cold SST anomaly then weakens monsoon convective activity, especially that over the Bay of Bengal, and less water vapor is thus transported into the TP along its southern slope from the tropical oceans. As a result, summer precipitation decreases over the TP, which further weakens the TP local heat source. Finally, the changed TP heating continues to influence the summer monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation. To a certain extent, the air-sea coupling over the adjacent oceans may weaken the effect of TP heating on the mean climate in summer. It is also implied that considerations of air-sea interaction are necessary in future simulation studies of the TP heating effect.

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model.

PubMed

Tsamados, Michel; Feltham, Daniel; Petty, Alek; Schroeder, David; Flocco, Daniela

2015-10-13

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice-atmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice-ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities. © 2015 The Author(s).

Relative sea-level rise as indicated by gage data along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Wilson, K.

2004-01-01

Global warming, or the increasing of earth's temperatures, leads to rising sea level as polar ice caps and mountain glaciers melt and ocean water undergoes thermal expansion. Tidal records collected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), Mobile District, at Gulfport, Biloxi, and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and at Mobile, Alabama, indicate trends of water-surface elevations increasing with time (relative sea-level rise). The trends indicated by the COE data were compared to relative sea-level trends indicated by the National Ocean Survey gages in the Gulf of Mexico. The average global rate of sea level rise has been suggested to approach about 2 mm/yr (0.007 ft/yr). Some leading scientists have suggested rates of sea level rise that are greater than 2 mm/yr, when accounting for effects of greenhouse gas emissions. As the sea level rises and inundates the coastal plain, structures along the existing coast and structures located in the back bays of estuaries will be even more adversely affected by future flooding. Also, if the land surface adjacent to the water also sinks due to soil compaction and other geologic processes (collectively call subsidence), additional land will be inundated. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Example of activities of the MERCATOR-Océan Project : oil spill and yacht race

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toumazou, V.; Greiner, E.; Blanc, F.; Lellouche, J. M.; Nouel, L.

2003-04-01

MERCATOR-Ocean is the french group aiming at developing an operational capacity for global ocean analysis and forecasting monitoring, based on near-real-time assimilation of satellite and in situ ocean observations in three-dimensional ocean models. MERCATOR-Ocean is supported by the six major french agencies involved in oceanography : CNES (French Space Agency), CNRS (National Center for Scientific Research), IFREMER (French Institute of Research and Exploitation of the Sea), IRD (Research Institute for Development), Météo-France (French Meteorological Agency) and SHOM (Navy Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service) - with a strong engagement of their subsidiaries CERFACS (European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation) and CLS (Collecte Localisation Satellite) in the success of the project. Every week since January 17, 2001, MERCATOR provides the oceanographic community with a set of maps and data about the underlying variables of the ocean, such as velocity, salinity, temperature and sea level anomalies, which describe the ocean in all its dimensions, from instantaneous analysis to 2-week forecasts, from the sea surface to the sea floor. Since november 2002, MERCATOR-Ocean has been involved in two major events. Early november 2002, the project provided skippers of the Route du Rhum transatlantic yacht race with prevision of sea-surface currents. In the mean time, on Tuesday November 19, the oil tanker Prestige sank in the Atlantic off the Portuguese and Spanish coasts. Called upon from the outset, MERCATOR OCEAN began November 20 to provide analyses and forecasts for two weeks in the future for the state of the ocean in the area, both on the surface and at depth, to teams of specialists of the crisis unit coordinated by CEDRE. This talk details these recent activities and draws the main lines of MERCATOR-Ocean actuality and future.

Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

2017-12-01

While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform seasonally during Polar winter. However, despite seasonal sea ice change, if and where its thickness remains below this critical threshold, the Arctic Ocean will continue interacting with the overlying atmosphere and contributing to Arctic amplification during the cold season.

MODIS Snow and Sea Ice Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Riggs, George A.; Salomonson, Vincent V.

2004-01-01

In this chapter, we describe the suite of Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra and Aqua snow and sea ice products. Global, daily products, developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, are archived and distributed through the National Snow and Ice Data Center at various resolutions and on different grids useful for different communities Snow products include binary snow cover, snow albedo, and in the near future, fraction of snow in a 5OO-m pixel. Sea ice products include ice extent determined with two different algorithms, and sea ice surface temperature. The algorithms used to develop these products are described. Both the snow and sea ice products, available since February 24,2000, are useful for modelers. Validation of the products is also discussed.

Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxman, Guy J. G.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Bentley, Michael J.; Ross, Neil; Armadillo, Egidio; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Leitchenkov, German; DeConto, Robert M.

2018-05-01

East Antarctica hosts large subglacial basins into which the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) likely retreated during past warmer climates. However, the extent of retreat remains poorly constrained, making quantifying past and predicted future contributions to global sea level rise from these marine basins challenging. Geomorphological analysis and flexural modeling within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin are used to reconstruct the ice margin during warm intervals of the Oligocene-Miocene. Flat-lying bedrock plateaus are indicative of an ice sheet margin positioned >400-500 km inland of the modern grounding zone for extended periods of the Oligocene-Miocene, equivalent to a 2-m rise in global sea level. Our findings imply that if major EAIS retreat occurs in the future, isostatic rebound will enable the plateau surfaces to act as seeding points for extensive ice rises, thus limiting extensive ice margin retreat of the scale seen during the early EAIS.

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

There goes the sea ice: following Arctic sea ice parcels and their properties.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tschudi, M. A.; Tooth, M.; Meier, W.; Stewart, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice distribution has changed considerably over the last couple of decades. Sea ice extent record minimums have been observed in recent years, the distribution of ice age now heavily favors younger ice, and sea ice is likely thinning. This new state of the Arctic sea ice cover has several impacts, including effects on marine life, feedback on the warming of the ocean and atmosphere, and on the future evolution of the ice pack. The shift in the state of the ice cover, from a pack dominated by older ice, to the current state of a pack with mostly young ice, impacts specific properties of the ice pack, and consequently the pack's response to the changing Arctic climate. For example, younger ice typically contains more numerous melt ponds during the melt season, resulting in a lower albedo. First-year ice is typically thinner and more fragile than multi-year ice, making it more susceptible to dynamic and thermodynamic forcing. To investigate the response of the ice pack to climate forcing during summertime melt, we have developed a database that tracks individual Arctic sea ice parcels along with associated properties as these parcels advect during the summer. Our database tracks parcels in the Beaufort Sea, from 1985 - present, along with variables such as ice surface temperature, albedo, ice concentration, and convergence. We are using this database to deduce how these thousands of tracked parcels fare during summer melt, i.e. what fraction of the parcels advect through the Beaufort, and what fraction melts out? The tracked variables describe the thermodynamic and dynamic forcing on these parcels during their journey. This database will also be made available to all interested investigators, after it is published in the near future. The attached image shows the ice surface temperature of all parcels (right) that advected through the Beaufort Sea region (left) in 2014.

The influence of sea ice on Antarctic ice core sulfur chemistry and on the future evolution of Arctic snow depth: Investigations using global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hezel, Paul J.

Observational studies have examined the relationship between methanesulfonic acid (MSA) measured in Antarctic ice cores and sea ice extent measured by satellites with the aim of producing a proxy for past sea ice extent. MSA is an oxidation product of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and is potentially linked to sea ice based on observations of very high surface seawater DMS in the sea ice zone. Using a global chemical transport model, we present the first modeling study that specifically examines this relationship on interannual and on glacial-interglacial time scales. On interannual time scales, the model shows no robust relationship between MSA deposited in Antarctica and sea ice extent. We show that lifetimes of MSA and DMS are longer in the high latitudes than in the global mean, interannual variability of sea ice is small (<25%) as a fraction of sea ice area, and sea ice determines only a fraction of the variability (<30%) of DMS emissions from the ocean surface. A potentially larger fraction of the variability in DMS emissions is determined by surface wind speed (up to 46%) via the parameterization for ocean-to-atmosphere gas exchange. Furthermore, we find that a significant fraction (up to 74%) of MSA deposited in Antarctica originates from north of 60°S, north of the seasonal sea ice zone. We then examine the deposition of MSA and non-sea-salt sulfate (nss SO2-4 ) on glacial-interglacial time scales. Ice core observations on the East Antarctic Plateau suggest that MSA increases much more than nss SO2-4 during the last glacial maximum (LGM) compared to the modern period. It has been suggested that high MSA during the LGM is indicative of higher primary productivity and DMS emissions in the LGM compared to the modern day. Studies have also shown that MSA is subject to post-depositional volatilization, especially during the modern period. Using the same chemical transport model driven by meteorology from a global climate model, we examine the sensitivity of MSA and nss SO2-4 deposition to differences between the modern and LGM climates, including sea ice extent, sea surface temperatures, oxidant concentrations, and meteorological conditions. We are unable to find a mechanism whereby MSA deposition fluxes are higher than nss SO2-4 deposition fluxes on the East Antarctic Plateau in the LGM compared the modern period. We conclude that the observed differences between MSA and nss SO2-4 on glacial-interglacial time scales are due to post-depositional processes that affect the ice core MSA concentrations. We can not rule out the possibility of increased DMS emissions in the LGM compared to the modern day. If oceanic DMS production and ocean-to-air fluxes in the sea ice zone are significantly enhanced by the presence of sea ice as indicated by observations, we suggest that the potentially larger amplitude of the seasonal cycle in sea ice extent in the LGM implies a more important role for sea ice in modulating the sulfur cycle during the LGM compared to the modern period. We then shift our focus to study the evolution of snow depth on sea ice in global climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Two competing processes, decreasing sea ice extent and increasing precipitation, will affect snow accumulation on sea ice in the future, and it is not known a priori which will dominate. The decline in Arctic sea ice extent is a well-studied problem in future scenarios of climate change. Moisture convergence into the Arctic is also expected to increase in a warmer world, which may result in increasing snowfall rates. We show that the accumulated snow depth on sea ice in the spring declines as a result of decreased ice extent in the early autumn, in spite of increased winter snowfall rates. The ringed seal (Phoca hispida ) depends on accumulated snow in the spring to build subnivean birth lairs, and provides one of the motivations for this study. Using an empirical threshold of 20 cm of snow depth on level sea ice for ringed seal lair success, we estimate a decline of potential ringed seal habitat of nearly 70%.

Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters: drivers and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsdotter Björk, M.; Fransson, A.; Chierici, M.

2013-05-01

Each December during four years from 2006 to 2010, the surface water carbonate system was measured and investigated in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea, western Antarctica as part of the Oden Southern Ocean expeditions (OSO). The I/B Oden started in Punta Arenas in Chile and sailed southwest, passing through different regimes such as, the marginal/seasonal ice zone, fronts, coastal shelves, and polynyas. Discrete surface water was sampled underway for analysis of total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and pH. Two of these parameters were used together with sea-surface temperature (SST), and salinity to obtain a full description of the surface water carbonate system, including pH in situ and calcium carbonate saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) and calcite (ΩCa). Multivariate analysis was used to investigate interannual variability and the major controls (sea-ice concentration, SST, salinity and chlorophyll a) on the variability in the carbonate system and Ω. This analysis showed that SST and chlorophyll a were the major drivers of the Ω variability in both the Amundsen and Ross seas. In 2007, the sea-ice edge was located further south and the area of the open polynya was relatively small compared to 2010. We found the lowest pH in situ (7.932) and Ω = 1 values in the sea-ice zone and in the coastal Amundsen Sea, nearby marine out flowing glaciers. In 2010, the sea-ice coverage was the largest and the areas of the open polynyas were the largest for the whole period. This year we found the lowest salinity and AT, coinciding with highest chl a. This implies that the highest ΩAr in 2010 was likely an effect of biological CO2 drawdown, which out-competed the dilution of carbonate ion concentration due to large melt water volumes. We predict and discuss future Ω values, using our data and reported rates of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, suggesting that the Amundsen Sea will become undersaturated with regard to aragonite about 20 yr sooner than predicted by models.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E

2017-04-21

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

2017-01-01

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

New Passive Instruments Developed for Ocean Monitoring at the Remote Sensing Lab—Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

PubMed Central

Camps, Adriano; Bosch-Lluis, Xavier; Ramos-Perez, Isaac; Marchán-Hernández, Juan F.; Rodríguez, Nereida; Valencia, Enric; Tarongi, Jose M.; Aguasca, Albert; Acevo, René

2009-01-01

Lack of frequent and global observations from space is currently a limiting factor in many Earth Observation (EO) missions. Two potential techniques that have been proposed nowadays are: (1) the use of satellite constellations, and (2) the use of Global Navigation Satellite Signals (GNSS) as signals of opportunity (no transmitter required). Reflectometry using GNSS opportunity signals (GNSS-R) was originally proposed in 1993 by Martin-Neira (ESA-ESTEC) for altimetry applications, but later its use for wind speed determination has been proposed, and more recently to perform the sea state correction required in sea surface salinity retrievals by means of L-band microwave radiometry (TB). At present, two EO space-borne missions are currently planned to be launched in the near future: (1) ESA's SMOS mission, using a Y-shaped synthetic aperture radiometer, launch date November 2nd, 2009, and (2) NASA-CONAE AQUARIUS/SAC-D mission, using a three beam push-broom radiometer. In the SMOS mission, the multi-angle observation capabilities allow to simultaneously retrieve not only the surface salinity, but also the surface temperature and an “effective” wind speed that minimizes the differences between observations and models. In AQUARIUS, an L-band scatterometer measuring the radar backscatter (σ0) will be used to perform the necessary sea state corrections. However, none of these approaches are fully satisfactory, since the effective wind speed captures some sea surface roughness effects, at the expense of introducing another variable to be retrieved, and on the other hand the plots (TB-σ0) present a large scattering. In 2003, the Passive Advance Unit for ocean monitoring (PAU) project was proposed to the European Science Foundation in the frame of the EUropean Young Investigator Awards (EURYI) to test the feasibility of GNSS-R over the sea surface to make sea state measurements and perform the correction of the L-band brightness temperature. This paper: (1) provides an overview of the Physics of the L-band radiometric and GNSS reflectometric observations over the ocean, (2) describes the instrumentation that has been (is being) developed in the frame of the EURYI-funded PAU project, (3) the ground-based measurements carried out so far, and their interpretation in view of placing a GNSS-reflectometer as secondary payload in future SMOS follow-on missions. PMID:22303168

New passive instruments developed for ocean monitoring at the remote sensing lab-universitat politècnica de catalunya.

PubMed

Camps, Adriano; Bosch-Lluis, Xavier; Ramos-Perez, Isaac; Marchán-Hernández, Juan F; Rodríguez, Nereida; Valencia, Enric; Tarongi, Jose M; Aguasca, Albert; Acevo, René

2009-01-01

Lack of frequent and global observations from space is currently a limiting factor in many Earth Observation (EO) missions. Two potential techniques that have been proposed nowadays are: (1) the use of satellite constellations, and (2) the use of Global Navigation Satellite Signals (GNSS) as signals of opportunity (no transmitter required). Reflectometry using GNSS opportunity signals (GNSS-R) was originally proposed in 1993 by Martin-Neira (ESA-ESTEC) for altimetry applications, but later its use for wind speed determination has been proposed, and more recently to perform the sea state correction required in sea surface salinity retrievals by means of L-band microwave radiometry (T(B)). At present, two EO space-borne missions are currently planned to be launched in the near future: (1) ESA's SMOS mission, using a Y-shaped synthetic aperture radiometer, launch date November 2nd, 2009, and (2) NASA-CONAE AQUARIUS/SAC-D mission, using a three beam push-broom radiometer. In the SMOS mission, the multi-angle observation capabilities allow to simultaneously retrieve not only the surface salinity, but also the surface temperature and an "effective" wind speed that minimizes the differences between observations and models. In AQUARIUS, an L-band scatterometer measuring the radar backscatter (σ(0)) will be used to perform the necessary sea state corrections. However, none of these approaches are fully satisfactory, since the effective wind speed captures some sea surface roughness effects, at the expense of introducing another variable to be retrieved, and on the other hand the plots (T(B)-σ(0)) present a large scattering. In 2003, the Passive Advance Unit for ocean monitoring (PAU) project was proposed to the European Science Foundation in the frame of the EUropean Young Investigator Awards (EURYI) to test the feasibility of GNSS-R over the sea surface to make sea state measurements and perform the correction of the L-band brightness temperature. This paper: (1) provides an overview of the Physics of the L-band radiometric and GNSS reflectometric observations over the ocean, (2) describes the instrumentation that has been (is being) developed in the frame of the EURYI-funded PAU project, (3) the ground-based measurements carried out so far, and their interpretation in view of placing a GNSS-reflectometer as secondary payload in future SMOS follow-on missions.

Dead sea asphalts: historical aspects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nissenbaum, A.

1978-05-01

Asphalts are present in the Dead Sea basin in three forms: (1) huge blocks, up to 100 tons in weight, composed of extremely pure (>99.99%) solid asphalt occasionally found floating on the lake, (2) veins, seepages, and cavity and fissure fillings in Lower Cretaceous to Holocene rocks, and (3) ozocerite veins on the eastern shore of the lake. Dead Sea asphalts probably have been documented over a longer period of time than any other hydrocarbon deposit--from antiquity to the 19th century. Major uses of asphalt from the Dead Sea have been as an ingredient in the embalming process, for medicinalmore » purposes, for fumigation, and for agriculture. The first known war for control of a hydrocarbon deposit was in the Dead Sea area in 312 B.C. between the Seleucid Syrians and the Nabatean Arabs who lived around the lake. Surface manifestations of asphalt are linked closely to tectonic activity. In the lake itself, the asphalt is associated with diapirs During certain historic periods, tectonic and diapiric activity caused frequent liberation to the Dead Sea surface of semiliquid asphalt associated with large amounts of hydrogen sulfide gas. When the tectonic activity was attenuated, as in the 19th and 20th centuries, the rate of asphalt seepage to the bottom sediments of the Dead Sea was much slower and the asphalt solidified on the lake bottom. The release of asphalt to the surface became much more sporadic, and may have resulted in part from earthquakes. Thus, future asphalt prospecting in the Dead Sea area should be conducted along the boundaries of diapirs or their associated faults.« less

TEAM - Titan Exploration Atmospheric Microprobes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nixon, Conor; Esper, Jaime; Aslam, Shahid; Quilligan, Gerald

2016-10-01

The astrobiological potential of Titan's surface hydrocarbon liquids and probable interior water ocean has led to its inclusion as a destination in NASA's "Ocean Worlds" initiative, and near-term investigation of these regions is a high-level scientific goal. TEAM is a novel initiative to investigate the lake and sea environs using multiple dropsondes -scientific probes derived from an existing cubesat bus architecture (CAPE - the Cubesat Application for Planetary Exploration) developed at NASA GSFC. Each 3U probe will parachute to the surface, making atmospheric structure and composition measurements during the descent, and photographing the surface - land, shoreline and seas - in detail. TEAM probes offer a low-cost, high-return means to explore multiple areas on Titan, yielding crucial data about the condensing chemicals, haze and cloud layers, winds, and surface features of the lakes and seas. These microprobes may be included on a near-term New Frontiers class mission to the Saturn system as additional payload, bringing increased scientific return and conducting reconnaissance for future landing zones. In this presentation we describe the probe architecture, baseline payload, flight profile and the unique engineering and science data that can be returned.

Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

2017-10-01

Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region.

PubMed

Sheppard, Charles; Rioja-Nieto, Rodolfo

2005-09-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) data with monthly resolution are provided for 38 cells in the Caribbean Sea and Bahamas region, plus Bermuda. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 coupled climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Statistical scaling of the forecast data sets are performed to produce confluent SST series according to a now established method. These SST series are available for download. High water temperatures in 1998 killed enormous amounts of corals in tropical seas, though in the Caribbean region the effects at that time appeared less marked than in the Indo-Pacific. However, SSTs are rising in accordance with world-wide trends and it has been predicted that temperature will become increasingly important in this region in the near future. Patterns of SST rise within the Caribbean region are shown, and the importance of sub-regional patterns within this biologically highly interconnected area are noted.

Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, Pranab; Orr, Andrew; Bromwich, David H.; Nicolas, Julien P.; Turner, John; Hosking, J. Scott

2018-05-01

Satellite data and a 35-year hindcast of the Amundsen Sea Embayment summer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to understand how regional and large-scale atmospheric variability affects thinning of ice shelves in this sector of West Antarctica by melting from above and below (linked to intrusions of warm water caused by anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge). El Niño episodes are associated with an increase in surface melt but do not have a statistically significant impact on westerly winds over the continental shelf edge. The location of the Amundsen Sea Low and the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) have negligible impact on surface melting, although a positive SAM and eastward shift of the Amundsen Sea Low cause anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge. The projected future increase in El Niño episodes and positive SAM could therefore increase the risk of disintegration of West Antarctic ice shelves.

Contrasting habitat selection amongst cephalopods in the Mediterranean Sea: When the environment makes the difference.

PubMed

Lauria, V; Garofalo, G; Gristina, M; Fiorentino, F

2016-08-01

Conservation of fish habitat requires a deeper knowledge of how species distribution patterns are related to environmental factors. Habitat suitability modelling is an essential tool to quantify species' realised niches and understand species-environment relationships. Cephalopods are important players in the marine food web and a significant resource for fisheries; they are also very sensitive to environmental changes. Here a time series of fishery-independent data (1998-2011) was used to construct habitat suitability models and investigate the influence of environmental variables on four commercial cephalopods: Todaropsis eblanae, Illex coindetii, Eledone moschata and Eledone cirrhosa, in the central Mediterranean Sea. The main environmental predictors of cephalopod habitat suitability were depth, seafloor morphology, chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature and surface salinity. Predictive maps highlighted contrasting habitat selection amongst species. This study identifies areas where the important commercial species of cephalopods are concentrated and provides significant information for a future spatial based approach to fisheries management in the Mediterranean Sea. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...

2016-02-01

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less

Cloud screening and melt water detection over melting sea ice using AATSR/SLSTR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istomina, Larysa; Heygster, Georg

2014-05-01

With the onset of melt in the Arctic Ocean, the fraction of melt water on sea ice, the melt pond fraction, increases. The consequences are: the reduced albedo of sea ice, increased transmittance of sea ice and affected heat balance of the system with more heat passing through the ice into the ocean, which facilitates further melting. The onset of melt, duration of melt season and melt pond fraction are good indicators of the climate state of the Arctic and its change. In the absence of reliable sea ice thickness retrievals in summer, melt pond fraction retrieval from satellite is in demand as input for GCM as an indicator of melt state of the sea ice. The retrieval of melt pond fraction with a moderate resolution radiometer as AATSR is, however, a non-trivial task due to a variety of subpixel surface types with very different optical properties, which give non-unique combinations if mixed. In this work this has been solved by employing additional information on the surface and air temperature of the pixel. In the current work, a concept of melt pond detection on sea ice is presented. The basis of the retrieval is the sensitivity of AATSR reflectance channels 550nm and 860nm to the amount of melt water on sea ice. The retrieval features extensive usage of a database of in situ surface albedo spectra. A tree of decisions is employed to select the feasible family of in situ spectra for the retrieval, depending on the melt stage of the surface. Reanalysis air temperature at the surface and brightness temperature measured by the satellite sensor are analyzed in order to evaluate the melting status of the surface. Case studies for FYI and MYI show plausible retrieved melt pond fractions, characteristic for both of the ice types. The developed retrieval can be used to process the historical AATSR (2002-2012) dataset, as well as for the SLSTR sensor onboard the future Sentinel-3 mission (scheduled for launch in 2015), to keep the continuity and obtain longer time sequence of the product. Cloud detection over melting sea ice is a non-trivial problem as well. The sensitivity of AATSR 3.7 micron band to atmospheric reflectance is used to screen out clouds over melting sea ice.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

PubMed

Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

2006-07-15

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

Characterization of the surface wave variability in the California Current region from satellite altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villas Boas, A. B.; Gille, S. T.; Mazloff, M. R.

2016-02-01

Surface gravity waves play a crucial role in upper-ocean dynamics, and they are an important mechanism by which the ocean exchanges energy with the overlying atmosphere. Surface waves are largely wind forced and can also be modulated by ocean currents via nonlinear wave-current interactions, leading to either an amplification or attenuation of the wave amplitude. Even though individual waves cannot be detected by present satellite altimeters, surface waves have the potential to produce a sea-state bias in altimeter measurements and can impact the sea-surface-height spectrum at high wavenumbers or frequencies. Knowing the wave climatology is relevant for the success of future altimeter missions, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT). We analyse the seasonal, intra-annual and interannual variability of significant wave heights retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimeter data and assess the extent to which the variability of the surface wave field in the California Current region is modulated by the local wind and current fields.

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

Operational marine products from Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomazic, Igor; Montagner, Francois; O'Carroll, Anne; Kwiatkowska, Ewa; Scharroo, Remko; Nogueira Loddo, Carolina; Martin-Puig, Cristina; Bonekamp, Hans; Lucas, Bruno; Dinardo, Salvatore; Dash, Prasanjit; Taberner, Malcolm; Coto Cabaleiro, Eva; Santacesaria, Vincenzo; Wilson, Hilary

2017-04-01

The first Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite, Sentinel-3A, was launched in early 2016, with the mission to provide a consistent, long-term collection of marine and land data for operational analysis, forecasting and environmental and climate monitoring. The marine centre is part of the Sentinel-3 Payload Data Ground Segment, located at EUMETSAT. This centre together with the existing EUMETSAT facilities provides a routine centralised service for operational meteorology, oceanography, and other Sentinel-3 marine users as part of the European Commission's Copernicus programme. The EUMETSAT marine centre delivers operational Sea Surface Temperature, Ocean Colour and Sea Surface Topography data products based on the measurements from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR), Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) and Synthetic Aperture Radar Altimeter (SRAL), respectively, all aboard Sentinel-3. All products have been developed together with ESA and industry partners and EUMETSAT is responsible for the production, distribution, and future evolution of Level-2 marine products. We will give an overview of the scientific characteristics and algorithms of all marine Level-2 products, as well as instrument calibration and product validation results based on on-going Sentinel-3 Cal/Val activities. Information will be also provided about the current status of the product dissemination and the future evolutions that are envisaged. Also, we will provide information how to access Sentinel-3 data from EUMETSAT and where to look for further information.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Plasticity of Noddy Parents and Offspring to Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies

PubMed Central

Devney, Carol A.; Caley, M. Julian; Congdon, Bradley C.

2010-01-01

Behavioral and/or developmental plasticity is crucial for resisting the impacts of environmental stressors. We investigated the plasticity of adult foraging behavior and chick development in an offshore foraging seabird, the black noddy (Anous minutus), during two breeding seasons. The first season had anomalously high sea-surface temperatures and ‘low’ prey availability, while the second was a season of below average sea-surface temperatures and ‘normal’ food availability. During the second season, supplementary feeding of chicks was used to manipulate offspring nutritional status in order to mimic conditions of high prey availability. When sea-surface temperatures were hotter than average, provisioning rates were significantly and negatively impacted at the day-to-day scale. Adults fed chicks during this low-food season smaller meals but at the same rate as chicks in the unfed treatment the following season. Supplementary feeding of chicks during the second season also resulted in delivery of smaller meals by adults, but did not influence feeding rate. Chick begging and parental responses to cessation of food supplementation suggested smaller meals fed to artificially supplemented chicks resulted from a decrease in chick demands associated with satiation, rather than adult behavioral responses to chick condition. During periods of low prey abundance, chicks maintained structural growth while sacrificing body condition and were unable to take advantage of periods of high prey abundance by increasing growth rates. These results suggest that this species expresses limited plasticity in provisioning behavior and offspring development. Consequently, responses to future changes in sea-surface temperature and other environmental variation may be limited. PMID:20686693

Nudging the Arctic Ocean to quantify Arctic sea ice feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Evelien; Severijns, Camiel; Bintanja, Richard

2017-04-01

It is well-established that the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 time faster than rest of the planet. One of the great uncertainties in climate research is related to what extent sea ice feedbacks amplify this (seasonally varying) Arctic warming. Earlier studies have analyzed existing climate model output using correlations and energy budget considerations in order to quantify sea ice feedbacks through indirect methods. From these analyses it is regularly inferred that sea ice likely plays an important role, but details remain obscure. Here we will take a different and a more direct approach: we will keep the sea ice constant in a sensitivity simulation, using a state-of -the-art climate model (EC-Earth), applying a technique that has never been attempted before. This experimental technique involves nudging the temperature and salinity of the ocean surface (and possibly some layers below to maintain the vertical structure and mixing) to a predefined prescribed state. When strongly nudged to existing (seasonally-varying) sea surface temperatures, ocean salinity and temperature, we force the sea ice to remain in regions/seasons where it is located in the prescribed state, despite the changing climate. Once we obtain fixed' sea ice, we will run a future scenario, for instance 2 x CO2 with and without prescribed sea ice, with the difference between these runs providing a measure as to what extent sea ice contributes to Arctic warming, including the seasonal and geographical imprint of the effects.

Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojian

The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water production from CMIP5 data with the model by assuming that the Greenland Ice Sheet is covered in black carbon (lowering the albedo) and perpetually covered by optically thick clouds (increasing long wave radiation). This upper bound roughly triples surface meltwater production, resulting in 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100. These model estimates, combined with prior research suggesting an additional 40-100 cm of sea level rise associated with dynamical discharge, suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet is poised to contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century.

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brink, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Loh, Rhonda; Price, Jonathan; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-06-05

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

Impact of wave mixing on the sea ice cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Madec, Gurvan; Nurser, George; Feltham, Daniel

2017-04-01

As information on surface waves in ice-covered regions becomes available in ice-ocean models, there is an opportunity to model wave-related processes more accurate. Breaking waves cause mixing of the upper water column and present mixing schemes in ocean models take this into account through surface roughness. A commonly used approach is to calculate surface roughness from significant wave height, parameterised from wind speed. We present results from simulations using modelled significant wave height instead, which accounts for the presence of sea ice and the effect of swell. The simulations use the NEMO ocean model coupled to the CICE sea ice model, with wave information from the ECWAM model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new waves-in-ice module allows waves to propagate in sea ice and attenuates waves according to multiple scattering and non-elastic losses. It is found that in the simulations with wave mixing the mixed layer depth (MLD) under ice cover is reduced, since the parameterisation from wind speed overestimates wave height in the ice-covered regions. The MLD change, in turn, affects sea ice concentration and ice thickness. In the Arctic, reduced MLD in winter translates into increased ice thicknesses overall, with higher increases in the Western Arctic and decreases along the Siberian coast. In summer, shallowing of the mixed layer results in more heat accumulating in the surface ocean, increasing ice melting. In the Southern Ocean the meridional gradient in ice thickness and concentration is increased. We argue that coupling waves with sea ice - ocean models can reduce negative biases in sea ice cover, affecting the distribution of nutrients and, thus, biological productivity and ecosystems. This coupling will become more important in the future, when wave heights in a large part of the Arctic are expected to increase due to sea ice retreat and a larger wave fetch. Therefore, wave mixing constitutes a possible positive feedback mechanism.

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

2010-12-01

Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the marginal ice zone is mainly ablated via large sustained turbulent ocean enthalpy fluxes. The sensible heat required for these sustained fluxes is drawn from a reservoir of warm subsurface waters of subtropical origin entrained into the mixed layer via convective mixing. Analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes during the period preceding quasi-equilibrium reveals that low-salinity upper ocean anomalies are required for ice to advance seaward of the Arctic Water/Irminger Water thermohaline front in the northern Labrador Sea. Anomalous low-salinity waters inhibit mixed layer deepening, shielding the advancing ice pack from the subsurface heat reservoir, and are conducive to a positive surface stratification enhancement feedback from ice meltwater release. Interestingly, the climatological location of the front coincides with the minimum observed wintertime ice extent; positive ice extent anomalies may require hydrographic preconditioning. If true, the export of low-salinity anomalies from melting Arctic ice associated with future warming may be predicted to lead positive ice extent anomalies in Labrador Sea via the positive surface stratification enhancement mechanism feedback outlined above.

CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Wang, X. L.; Swart, N.

2018-03-01

This study presents simulations of the global ocean wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1979-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. To tackle the numerical complexities associated with the inclusion of the North Pole, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model was used with a customized unstructured Spherical Multi-Cell grid of ∼100 km offshore and ∼50 km along coastlines. The climate model simulated wind and sea ice data, and the corresponding WW3 simulated wave data, were evaluated against reanalysis and hindcast data. The results show that all the five sets of wave simulations projected lower waves in the North Atlantic, corresponding to decreased surface wind speeds there in the warmer climate. The selected CMIP5 models also consistently projected an increase in the surface wind speed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-high latitudes, which translates in an increase in the WW3 simulated significant wave height (Hs) there. The higher waves are accompanied with increased peak wave period and increased wave age in the East Pacific and Indian Oceans, and a significant counterclockwise rotation in the mean wave direction in the Southern Oceans. The latter is caused by more intense waves from the SH traveling equatorward and developing into swells. Future wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in summer is projected to be predominantly of mixed sea states, with the climatological mean of September maximum Hs ranging mostly 3-4 m. The new waves approaching Arctic coasts will be less fetch-limited as ice retreats since a predominantly southwards mean wave direction is projected in the surrounding seas.

Use of CMIP Atmospheric Boundary Conditions with ISMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Dynamical ice sheet models are being used in simulations of future sea level change resulting from changing glacier mass. One of the difficulties in doing so are the input conditions obtained from earth system models. These inputs can be of coarse spatial resolution, and may not represent surface melt in a future climate. I review various methods for overcoming this with the aim of promoting discussion among modelers.

New Techniques for Radar Altimetry of Sea Ice and the Polar Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, T. W. K.; Kwok, R.; Egido, A.; Smith, W. H. F.; Cullen, R.

2017-12-01

Satellite radar altimetry has proven to be a valuable tool for remote sensing of the polar oceans, with techniques for estimating sea ice thickness and sea surface height in the ice-covered ocean advancing to the point of becoming routine, if not operational, products. Here, we explore new techniques in radar altimetry of the polar oceans and the sea ice cover. First, we present results from fully-focused SAR (FFSAR) altimetry; by accounting for the phase evolution of scatterers in the scene, the FFSAR technique applies an inter-burst coherent integration, potentially over the entire duration that a scatterer remains in the altimeter footprint, which can narrow the effective along track resolution to just 0.5m. We discuss the improvement of using interleaved operation over burst-more operation for applying FFSAR processing to data acquired by future missions, such as a potential CryoSat follow-on. Second, we present simulated sea ice retrievals from the Ka-band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn), the instrument that will be launched on the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission in 2021, that is capable of producing swath images of surface elevation. These techniques offer the opportunity to advance our understanding of the physics of the ice-covered oceans, plus new insight into how we interpret more conventional radar altimetry data in these regions.

Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

2014-05-01

Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level variability, tide gauges, virtual SWOT measurements

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

PubMed Central

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D.; Massom, Rob A.; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A.; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-01-01

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies. PMID:28233791

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator.

PubMed

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D; Massom, Rob A; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-02-24

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.

Latitudinal and Longitudinal Basin-scale Surface Salinity Contrasts and Freshwater Transport by Ocean Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2003-12-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. In numerical experiments using an ocean general circulation model, we have aggregated the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSS in several different ways: we used observed unchanged SST with SSS taken as constant (34.25 psu) everywhere; SST unchanged, and SSS zonally averaged globally, i.e., in the whole World Ocean; SST averaged globally, and SSS unchanged; SST zonally averaged globally and SSS zonally averaged basin-wide in individual basins, i.e., in the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans separately; and, finally, both SST and SSS zonally averaged in individual basins. Global zonal averaging removes all longitudinal differences in sea surface climatology among ocean basins. However, latitudinal profiles of zonally averaged parameters preserve the main character of large-scale equator-to-pole sea surface variability. Basin-wide zonal averaging does an even better job of preserving latitudinal distributions within each basin. The results of the experiments could hardly be anticipated a priory. Surprisingly, SST could be used as a 2-D field, or as a zonally-averaged field without much difference in the THC dynamics. Moreover, SST could be averaged either globally, or basin-wide, and it also did not change the overall character of THC. At the same time, THC responded vigorously to how the SSS has been changed. It appeared that the THC structure with the globally averaged SST and basin-wide averaged SSS was very close to the one obtained in the control run (control run operates with 2-D observed SST and SSS). Our main conclusion is that ocean-wide inter-basin sea surface salinity contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global thermohaline circulation. Thermal inter-basin contrasts, as well as longitudinal variation in SSS, are less important than latitudinal thermal gradients and inter-basin salinity contrasts. Details of SSS also decrease in importance as soon as its inter-basin contrasts are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations, as only the large-scale inter-basin contrasts of the sea surface conditions really matter.

Greenland ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise buffered by meltwater storage in firn.

PubMed

Harper, J; Humphrey, N; Pfeffer, W T; Brown, J; Fettweis, X

2012-11-08

Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet has shown increasing trends in areal extent and duration since the beginning of the satellite era. Records for melt were broken in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. Much of the increased surface melt is occurring in the percolation zone, a region of the accumulation area that is perennially covered by snow and firn (partly compacted snow). The fate of melt water in the percolation zone is poorly constrained: some may travel away from its point of origin and eventually influence the ice sheet's flow dynamics and mass balance and the global sea level, whereas some may simply infiltrate into cold snow or firn and refreeze with none of these effects. Here we quantify the existing water storage capacity of the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet and show the potential for hundreds of gigatonnes of meltwater storage. We collected in situ observations of firn structure and meltwater retention along a roughly 85-kilometre-long transect of the melting accumulation area. Our data show that repeated infiltration events in which melt water penetrates deeply (more than 10 metres) eventually fill all pore space with water. As future surface melt intensifies under Arctic warming, a fraction of melt water that would otherwise contribute to sea-level rise will fill existing pore space of the percolation zone. We estimate the lower and upper bounds of this storage sink to be 322 ± 44 gigatonnes and  1,289(+388)(-252) gigatonnes, respectively. Furthermore, we find that decades are required to fill this pore space under a range of plausible future climate conditions. Hence, routing of surface melt water into filling the pore space of the firn column will delay expansion of the area contributing to sea-level rise, although once the pore space is filled it cannot quickly be regenerated.

Spaceborne studies of ocean circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patzert, W. C.

1984-01-01

The history and near-term future of ocean remote sensing to study ocean circulation are examined. Seasat provided the first-ever global data sets of sea surface topography (altimeter) and marine winds (scatterometer) and laid the foundation for the next generation of satellite missions planned for the late 1980s. The future missions are the next generation of altimeter and scatterometer to be flown aboard TOPEX (TOPography EXperiment) and NROSS (Navy Remote Sensing System), respectively. The data from these satellites will be coordinated with measurements made at sea to determine the driving forces of ocean circulation and to study the oceans' role in climate variability. The significance of such studies to such matters as climatic changes, fisheries, commerce, waste disposal, and national defense is noted.

Field assessment of optical transparency in the low-level marine boundary layer: preliminary data from coastal New England sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandemark, Douglas; Feng, Hui; Greenslade, Margaret E.

2016-05-01

Estimating the variation in the spectral transmission and scattering of optical and near-IR radiation near the sea surface under a range of conditions should be feasible using historical data collected off the coast of New Hampshire USA and along the coastline in the Gulf of Maine. Presented here are long-term offshore aerosol optical depth measurements collected using an AERONET sun photometer from 2007-2011 and near-surface wind and (3 m) horizontal visibility measurements collected using surface meteorological buoys from 2001-present. Future analysis of these data can address their correlation with near-surface meteorological and sea state conditions and to exploit an intensive but limited subset of historical aerosol particle measurements collected here both during a large research ship surveys (ICARTT) as well as with a dedicated aerosol measurement station in summer 2005. Refractive index variation and relevant altitude-dependent differences in meteorological scalars are also investigated using unique offshore long-term measurements at 3 and 32 m above sea level. Overall project results should provide new information for assessment against several existing models for aerosol extinction in marine environments.

Effects of Ice-Algal Aggregate Export on the Connectivity of Bacterial Communities in the Central Arctic Ocean

PubMed Central

Rapp, Josephine Z.; Fernández-Méndez, Mar; Bienhold, Christina; Boetius, Antje

2018-01-01

In summer 2012, Arctic sea ice declined to a record minimum and, as a consequence of the melting, large amounts of aggregated ice-algae sank to the seafloor at more than 4,000 m depth. In this study, we assessed the composition, turnover and connectivity of bacterial and microbial eukaryotic communities across Arctic habitats from sea ice, algal aggregates and surface waters to the seafloor. Eukaryotic communities were dominated by diatoms, dinoflagellates and other alveolates in all samples, and showed highest richness and diversity in sea-ice habitats (∼400–500 OTUs). Flavobacteriia and Gammaproteobacteria were the predominant bacterial classes across all investigated Arctic habitats. Bacterial community richness and diversity peaked in deep-sea samples (∼1,700 OTUs). Algal aggregate-associated bacterial communities were mainly recruited from the sea-ice community, and were transported to the seafloor with the sinking ice algae. The algal deposits at the seafloor had a unique community structure, with some shared sequences with both the original sea-ice community (22% OTU overlap), as well as with the deep-sea sediment community (17% OTU overlap). We conclude that ice-algal aggregate export does not only affect carbon export from the surface to the seafloor, but may change microbial community composition in central Arctic habitats with potential effects for benthic ecosystem functioning in the future. PMID:29875749

Forecasting decadal changes in sea surface temperatures and coral bleaching within a Caribbean coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Angang; Reidenbach, Matthew A.

2014-09-01

Elevated sea surface temperature (SST) caused by global warming is one of the major threats to coral reefs. While increased SST has been shown to negatively affect the health of coral reefs by increasing rates of coral bleaching, how changes to atmospheric heating impact SST distributions, modified by local flow environments, has been less understood. This study aimed to simulate future water flow patterns and water surface heating in response to increased air temperature within a coral reef system in Bocas del Toro, Panama, located within the Caribbean Sea. Water flow and SST were modeled using the Delft3D-FLOWcomputer simulation package. Locally measured physical parameters, including bathymetry, astronomic tidal forcing, and coral habitat distribution were input into the model and water flow, and SST was simulated over a four-month period under present day, as well as projected warming scenarios in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Changes in SST, and hence the thermal stress to corals, were quantified by degree heating weeks. Results showed that present-day reported bleaching sites were consistent with localized regions of continuous high SST. Regions with highest SST were located within shallow coastal sites adjacent to the mainland or within the interior of the bay, and characterized by low currents with high water retention times. Under projected increases in SSTs, shallow reef areas in low flow regions were found to be hot spots for future bleaching.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Saharan Dust Deposition May Affect Phytoplankton Growth in the Mediterranean Sea at Ecological Time Scales

PubMed Central

Gallisai, Rachele; Peters, Francesc; Volpe, Gianluca; Basart, Sara; Baldasano, José Maria

2014-01-01

The surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea are extremely poor in the nutrients necessary for plankton growth. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea borders with the largest and most active desert areas in the world and the atmosphere over the basin is subject to frequent injections of mineral dust particles. We describe statistical correlations between dust deposition over the Mediterranean Sea and surface chlorophyll concentrations at ecological time scales. Aerosol deposition of Saharan origin may explain 1 to 10% (average 5%) of seasonally detrended chlorophyll variability in the low nutrient-low chlorophyll Mediterranean. Most of the statistically significant correlations are positive with main effects in spring over the Eastern and Central Mediterranean, conforming to a view of dust events fueling needed nutrients to the planktonic community. Some areas show negative effects of dust deposition on chlorophyll, coinciding with regions under a large influence of aerosols from European origin. The influence of dust deposition on chlorophyll dynamics may become larger in future scenarios of increased aridity and shallowing of the mixed layer. PMID:25333783

Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

Earthquakes and sea level - Space and terrestrial metrology on a changing planet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bilham, R.

1991-02-01

A review is presented of the stability and scale of crustal deformation metrology which has particular relevance to monitoring deformation associated with sea level and earthquakes. Developments in space geodesy and crustal deformation metrology in the last two decades have the potential to acquire a homogeneous global data set for monitoring relative horizontal and vertical motions of the earth's surface to within several millimeters. New tools discussed for forecasting sea level rise and damaging earthquakes include: very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, the principles of GPS geodesy, and new sea level sensors. Space geodesy permits a unified global basismore » for future metrology of the earth, and the continued availability of the GPS is currently fundamental to this unification.« less

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Spatial distributions of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities have been resilient to long-term surface warming.

PubMed

Tarling, Geraint A; Ward, Peter; Thorpe, Sally E

2018-01-01

The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long-term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926-1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996-2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s-1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It further demonstrates that this community is thermally resilient to present levels of sea surface warming. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Numerical study of electromagnetic scattering from one-dimensional nonlinear fractal sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Tao; He, Chao; William, Perrie; Kuang, Hai-Lan; Zou, Guang-Hui; Chen, Wei

2010-02-01

In recent years, linear fractal sea surface models have been developed for the sea surface in order to establish an electromagnetic backscattering model. Unfortunately, the sea surface is always nonlinear, particularly at high sea states. We present a nonlinear fractal sea surface model and derive an electromagnetic backscattering model. Using this model, we numerically calculate the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of a nonlinear sea surface. Comparing the averaged NRCS between linear and nonlinear fractal models, we show that the NRCS of a linear fractal sea surface underestimates the NRCS of the real sea surface, especially for sea states with high fractal dimensions, and for dominant ocean surface gravity waves that are either very short or extremely long.

Mining a sea of data: deducing the environmental controls of ocean chlorophyll.

PubMed

Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V

2008-01-01

Chlorophyll biomass in the surface ocean is regulated by a complex interaction of physiological, oceanographic, and ecological factors and in turn regulates the rates of primary production and export of organic carbon to the deep ocean. Mechanistic models of phytoplankton responses to climate change require the parameterization of many processes of which we have limited knowledge. We develop a statistical approach to estimate the response of remote-sensed ocean chlorophyll to a variety of physical and chemical variables. Irradiance over the mixed layer depth, surface nitrate, sea-surface temperature, and latitude and longitude together can predict 83% of the variation in log chlorophyll in the North Atlantic. Light and nitrate regulate biomass through an empirically determined minimum function explaining nearly 50% of the variation in log chlorophyll by themselves and confirming that either light or macronutrients are often limiting and that much of the variation in chlorophyll concentration is determined by bottom-up mechanisms. Assuming the dynamics of the future ocean are governed by the same processes at work today, we should be able to apply these response functions to future climate change scenarios, with changes in temperature, nutrient distributions, irradiance, and ocean physics.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: A multi-proxy perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4??C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective.

PubMed

Dowsett, Harry J; Robinson, Marci M

2009-01-13

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4 degrees C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content and Its Decadal Memory of Sea-Level Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Helen L.; Cornish, Sam B.; Kostov, Yavor; Beer, Emma; Lique, Camille

2018-05-01

Arctic freshwater content (FWC) has increased significantly over the last two decades, with potential future implications for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation downstream. We investigate the relationship between Arctic FWC and atmospheric circulation in the control run of a coupled climate model. Multiple linear lagged regression is used to extract the response of total Arctic FWC to a hypothetical step increase in the principal components of sea-level pressure. The results demonstrate that the FWC adjusts on a decadal timescale, consistent with the idea that wind-driven ocean dynamics and eddies determine the response of Arctic Ocean circulation and properties to a change in surface forcing, as suggested by idealized models and theory. Convolving the response of FWC to a change in sea-level pressure with historical sea-level pressure variations reveals that the recent observed increase in Arctic FWC is related to natural variations in sea-level pressure.

Simulation of Dust Radiative Impact on the Red Sea Using Coupled Regional Ocean/Atmosphere Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on the Middle East regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high (exceeding 1) dust optical depths over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. The radiative forcing of dust at the sea surface exceeds 120 Wm-2. The effect of this forcing to the Red Sea thermal regime and circulations is not well quantified yet. Therefore here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.5-0.7K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, fresh water and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in the future modeling studies.

Detection of subsurface-intensified eddies from observations of the sea-surface: a case study for Mediterranean Water Eddies in a long-term high-resolution simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciani, Daniele; Carton, Xavier; Barbosa Aguiar, Ana Claudia; Peliz, Alvaro; Bashmachnikov, Igor; Ienna, Federico; Chapron, Bertrand

2017-04-01

Subsurface-intensified eddies are ubiquitous in the world ocean. They can be generated by exchanges of water masses between semi-enclosed evaporation basins and the open ocean or by deep convection. Past and recent studies have shown that these eddies are carriers of large amounts of heat and salt, that they are coherent over inter-annual timescales and that they can migrate for several thousands of miles from their origination areas towards the open ocean. Hence, subsurface-intensified eddies can influence the three-dimensional distribution of oceanic tracers at global scale. The synoptic knowledge of the eddies positions and mean pathways is then crucial for evaluating temperature and salinity budgets in the world ocean. At present day, satellite sensors constitute the ideal tool for the synoptic and global scale observations of the ocean. Since they only provide informations on the oceanic surface, we characterized the signatures that subsurface eddies generate at the sea-surface, to determine the extent to which they can be isolated from the surrounding surface turbulence and be considered as a trace of an underlying eddy. We studied the surface signature of subsurface-intensified anticyclones (Mediterranean Water Eddies - Meddies) in a realistic, long-term (20 years) and high resolution simulation (dx = 3 km) based on the ROMS model. The novelty and advantage of this approach is given by the simultaneous availability of the full 3D eddies characteristics, the ones of the background ocean and of the sea-surface (in terms of sea-surface height, temperature and salinity). This also allowed us to speculate on a synergy between different satellite observations for the automatic detection of subsurface eddies from space. The along trajectory properties and surface signatures of more than 90 long-lived Meddies were analyzed. We showed that the Meddies constantly generate positive anomalies in sea-surface height and that these anomalies are principally related to the Meddy potential vorticity structure at depth (around 1000 m below the sea-surface). Such anomalies were long-lived, mostly migrated exhibiting southwestward trajectories, their intensities were O(10 cm) and extended horizontally up to more than 300 km (around 1.5 times the Meddy diameter). On the other hand, the Meddies thermohaline surface signatures proved to be mostly dominated by the local surface conditions and their structure poorly correlated to the Meddy structure at depth (e.g. the Meddy volume-integrated salt and temperature content). These results point out that satellite altimetry is the most suitable approach to track subsurface-intensified eddies from observations of the sea-surface, also encouraging the use of future high-resolution altimetric observations (e.g. SWOT) to detect subsurface oceanic motions from satellite sensors.

Study on detection of terrestrial and marine fractions in marine organic molecules by spectrophoto- and spectrofluorometric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drozdowska, Violetta; Wróbel, Iwona; Piskozub, Jacek

2017-04-01

The sea surface is a highly productive and active interface between the sea and the atmosphere. Sea surface films are created by organic matter from sea and land sources and they dissipate due to loss of material at the sea surface, including microbial degradation, chemical and photo chemical processes, and loss due to absorption and adsorption onto particulates. However the surface microlayer is almost ubiquitous and cover most of the surface of the ocean, even under conditions of high turbulence. Surface active molecules (surfactants) present in the surface microlayer (SML) may modify the number of physical processes taking place there: among others they affect the depth of penetration of solar radiation and gas exchange. Therefore, research on the influence of surfactants on the sea surface properties become an important task, especially in coastal waters and in vicinity of the river mouths. Surfactants comprises a mixture of organic molecules rich in lipids, polymeric and humus whose proportions determine the various properties of the SML. A unique structure of the energy levels of the organic molecules results in a unique spectral distribution of the light intensity absorbed and emitted by the molecules. Hence, the absorption and fluorescence spectra of organic compounds may allow the identification of the sources of organic matter. Additionally, several absorption (E2:E3, S, SR) and fluorescence (fluorescence intensities at peaks: A, C, M, T, the ratio (M+T)/(A+C), HIX) indices help in describing the changes in molecular size and weight as well as composition of organic matter during the humification processes and caused by photobleaching and biodegradation. Investigations included the region of Gulf of Gdańsk, along a transect from the Vistula River outlet to open sea. The fluorescence and absorption measurements of the samples collected from a surface films and a subsurface layer (SS, a depth of 1 m) during three research cruises in Gulf of Gdańsk, the Baltic Sea, as well as hydrophysical studies and meteorological observations allowed to assess (i) the contribution of two terrestrial components (A and C) decreased with increasing salinity ( 1.64% and 1.89 % in SML and 0.78 and 0.71 % in SS, respectively), while the contribution of, in-situ, in the sea produced components (M and T) increased with salinity ( 0.52% and 2.83% in SML and 0.98% and 1.87 % in SS, respectively), (ii) the biggest relative changes of the FDOM component composition, along the transect from the Vistula River outlet to Gdańsk Deep, were recorded for component T, both in SML and SS (about 18.5 % and 12.3 %, respectively), (iii) the ratio E2:E3 points to discrete changes in molecular weight/size, effected by photobleaching, while (iv) HIX index reflects the humification/condensation processes more sensitively and effectively in SS. The organic molecules included in the SML can specifically modify the physical processes associated with the sea surface microlayers. It should be necessary to continue a study on the physical properties of surface microlayer in the future, especially in less urbanized and more natural and pristine region, like Arctic.

Summary of the SeaRISE Project's Experiments on Modeled Ice-Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level: Linearities and Non-linearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, Robert

2013-04-01

The SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) project achieved ice-sheet model ensemble responses to a variety of prescribed changes to surface mass balance, basal sliding and ocean boundary melting. Greenland ice sheet models are more sensitive than Antarctic ice sheet models to likely atmospheric changes in surface mass balance, while Antarctic models are most sensitive to basal melting of its ice shelves. An experiment approximating the IPCC's RCP8.5 scenario produces first century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 7.3 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 17 cm, respectively. By 200 years, these projections increase to 53.2 and 23.4 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 57 cm. The considerable range among models was not only in the magnitude of ice lost, but also in the spatial pattern of response to identical forcing. Despite this variation, the response of any single model to a large range in the forcing intensity was remarkably linear in most cases. Additionally, the results of sensitivity experiments to single types of forcing (i.e., only one of the surface mass balance, or basal sliding, or ocean boundary melting) could be summed to accurately predict any model's result for an experiment when multiple forcings were applied simultaneously. This suggests a limited amount of feedback through the ice sheet's internal dynamics between these types of forcing over the time scale of a few centuries (SeaRISE experiments lasted 500 years).

[Habitat suitability index of larval Japanese Halfbeak (Hyporhamphus sajori) in Bohai Sea based on geographically weighted regression.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Zhang, Xue Qing; Bian, Xiao Dong

2018-01-01

To investigate the early supplementary processes of fishre sources in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) was introduced to the habitat suitability index (HSI) model. The Bohai Sea larval Japanese Halfbeak HSI GWR model was established with four environmental variables, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), water depth (DEP), and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a). Results of the simulation showed that the four variables had different performances in August 2015. SST and Chl a were global variables, and had little impacts on HSI, with the regression coefficients of -0.027 and 0.006, respectively. SSS and DEP were local variables, and had larger impacts on HSI, while the average values of absolute values of their regression coefficients were 0.075 and 0.129, respectively. In the central Bohai Sea, SSS showed a negative correlation with HSI, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.3. In contrast, SSS was correlated positively but weakly with HSI in the three bays of Bohai Sea, and the largest correlation coefficient was 0.1. In particular, DEP and HSI were negatively correlated in the entire Bohai Sea, while they were more negatively correlated in the three bays of Bohai than in the central Bohai Sea, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.16 in the three bays. The Poisson regression coefficient of the HSI GWR model was 0.705, consistent with field measurements. Therefore, it could provide a new method for the research on fish habitats in the future.

Black Sea outflow response to Holocene meltwater events.

PubMed

Herrle, Jens O; Bollmann, Jörg; Gebühr, Christina; Schulz, Hartmut; Sheward, Rosie M; Giesenberg, Annika

2018-03-06

During the Holocene, North American ice sheet collapse and rapid sea-level rise reconnected the Black Sea with the global ocean. Rapid meltwater releases into the North Atlantic and associated climate change arguably slowed the pace of Neolithisation across southeastern Europe, originally hypothesized as a catastrophic flooding that fueled culturally-widespread deluge myths. However, we currently lack an independent record linking the timing of meltwater events, sea-level rise and environmental change with the timing of Neolithisation in southeastern Europe. Here, we present a sea surface salinity record from the Northern Aegean Sea indicative of two meltwater events at ~8.4 and ~7.6 kiloyears that can be directly linked to rapid declines in the establishment of Neolithic sites in southeast Europe. The meltwater events point to an increased outflow of low salinity water from the Black Sea driven by rapid sea level rise >1.4 m following freshwater outbursts from Lake Agassiz and the final decay of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our results shed new light on the link between catastrophic sea-level rise and the Neolithisation of southeastern Europe, and present a historical example of how coastal populations could have been impacted by future rapid sea-level rise.

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Curt; Clark, Inga; Guntenspergen, Glenn; Cahoon, Don; Caruso, Vincent; Hupp, Cliff; Yanosky, Tom

2004-01-01

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

2017-02-01

Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

Diversity of terrestrial avifauna in response to distance from the shoreline of the Salton Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendelsohn, M.B.; Boarman, W.I.; Fisher, R.N.; Hathaway, S.A.

2007-01-01

Large aquatic bodies influence surrounding terrestrial ecosystems by providing water and nutrients. In arid landscapes, the increased primary productivity that results may greatly enhance vertebrate biodiversity. The Salton Sea, a large saline lake in the Colorado Desert of southern California, provides nutrients in the form of hundreds of thousands of dead fish carcasses, brine flies, and chemical compounds through windborne salt sea spray. We performed point counts for landbirds and shorebirds monthly or every other month between March 2001 and February 2002 across a sampling grid of 35 points along the west edge of Salton Sea. We found that avian diversity (numbers of species and numbers per species) was dependent on proximity to the Sea. Diversity was at a maximum nearest the shore, and was significantly lower away from the Sea's edge, at all surveyed distances up to 1 km from the shore. Cover by the dominant shrubs on the study site also corresponded to proximity to the water's edge. Whereas one may hypothesize that the avian diversity patterns are caused by these differences in vegetation structure, our data did not support this. Future studies should further investigate this potential correlation between vegetation and bird patterns. Until more is understood about the relationship between elevated avian diversity and the physical environment of the land-shore interface, our results suggest that the Sea's surface be stabilized near its present level. Future management schemes at the Salton Sea that include reductions of water sources should be carefully analyzed, so as to not jeopardize the terrestrial avifauna at this unique ecosystem. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Profiling Sea Ice with a Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, R.; Markus, T.; Morison, J.; Palm, S. P.; Neumann, T. A.; Brunt, K. M.; Cook, W. B.; Hancock, D. W.; Cunningham, G. F.

2014-01-01

The sole instrument on the upcoming ICESat-2 altimetry mission is a micropulse lidar that measures the time-of-flight of individual photons from laser pulses transmitted at 532 nm. Prior to launch, MABEL serves as an airborne implementation for testing and development. In this paper, we provide a first examination of MABEL data acquired on two flights over sea ice in April 2012: one north of the Arctic coast of Greenland, and the other in the East Greenland Sea.We investigate the phenomenology of photon distributions in the sea ice returns. An approach to locate the surface and estimate its elevation in the distributions is described, and its achievable precision assessed. Retrieved surface elevations over relatively flat leads in the ice cover suggest that precisions of several centimeters are attainable. Restricting the width of the elevation window used in the surface analysis can mitigate potential biases in the elevation estimates due to subsurface returns at 532 nm. Comparisons of nearly coincident elevation profiles from MABEL with those acquired by an analog lidar show good agreement.Discrimination of ice and open water, a crucial step in the determination of sea ice free board and the estimation of ice thickness, is facilitated by contrasts in the observed signal background photon statistics. Future flight lines will sample a broader range of seasonal ice conditions for further evaluation of the year-round profiling capabilities and limitations of the MABEL instrument.

Dynamical and Thermodynamic Elements of Modeled Climate Change at the East African Margin of Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, Alessandra; Lyon, Bradfield; Seager, Richard; Vigaud, Nicolas

2018-01-01

We propose a dynamical interpretation of model projections for an end-of-century wetting in equatorial East Africa. In the current generation of global climate models, increased atmospheric moisture content associated with warming is not the dominant process explaining the increase in rainfall, as the regional circulation is only weakly convergent even during the rainy seasons. Instead, projected wetter future conditions are generally consistent with the El Niño-like trend in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in climate models. In addition, a weakening in moisture convergence over the adjacent Congo Basin and Maritime Continent cores of convection results in the weakening of near-surface winds, which increases moisture advection from the Congo Basin core toward the East African margin. Overall confidence in the projections is limited by the significant biases in simulation of the regional climatology and disagreement between observed and modeled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends to date.

Sensitivity of Circulation in the Skagit River Estuary to Sea Level Rise and Future Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Sackmann, Brandon

Future climate simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario (A1B) have shown that the Skagit River flow will be affected, which may lead to modification of the estuarine hydrodynamics. There is considerable uncertainty, however, about the extent and magnitude of resulting change, given accompanying sea level rise and site-specific complexities with multiple interconnected basins. To help quantify the future hydrodynamic response, we developed a three dimensional model of the Skagit River estuary using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model was set up with localized high-resolution grids in Skagit and Padilla Bay sub-basins withinmore » the intermediate-scale FVCOM based model of the Salish Sea (greater Puget Sound and Georgia Basin). Future changes to salinity and annual transport through the basin were examined. The results confirmed the existence of a residual estuarine flow that enters Skagit Bay from Saratoga Passage to the south and exits through Deception Pass. Freshwater from the Skagit River is transported out in the surface layers primarily through Deception Pass and Saratoga Passage, and only a small fraction (≈4%) is transported to Padilla Bay. The moderate future perturbations of A1B emissions, corresponding river flow, and sea level rise of 0.48 m examined here result only in small incremental changes to salinity structure and inter-basin freshwater distribution and transport. An increase in salinity of ~1 ppt in the near-shore environment and a salinity intrusion of approximately 3 km further upstream is predicted in Skagit River, well downstream of the drinking water intakes.« less

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

Single-pass Airborne InSAR for Wide-swath, High-Resolution Cryospheric Surface Topography Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moller, D.; Hensley, S.; Wu, X.; Muellerschoen, R.

2014-12-01

In May 2009 a mm-wave single-pass interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) for the first time demonstrated ice surface topography swath-mapping in Greenland. This was achieved with the airborne Glacier and Ice Surface Topography Interferometer (GLISTIN-A). Ka-band (35.6GHz) was chosen for high-precision topographic mapping from a compact sensor with minimal surface penetration. In recent years, the system was comprehensively upgraded for improved performance, stability and calibration. In April 2013, after completing the upgrades, GLISTIN-A flew a brief campaign to Alaska. The primary purpose was to demonstrate the InSAR's ability to generate high-precision, high resolution maps of ice surface topography with swaths in excess of 10km. Comparison of GLISTIN-A's elevations over glacial ice with lidar verified the precision requirements and established elevation accuracies to within 2 m without tie points. Feature tracking of crevasses on Columbia Glacier using data acquired with a 3-day separation exhibit an impressive velocity mapping capability. Furthermore, GLISTIN-A flew over the Beaufort sea to determine if we could not only map sea ice, but also measure freeboard. Initial analysis has established we can measure sea-ice freeboard using height differences from the top of the sea-ice and the sea surface in open leads. In the future, a campaign with lidar is desired for a quantitative validation. Another proof-of-concept collection mapped snow-basins for hydrology. Snow depth measurements using summer and winter collections in the Sierras were compared with lidar measurements. Unsurprisingly when present, trees complicate the interpretation, but additional filtering and processing is in work. For each application, knowledge of the interferometric penetration is important for scientific interpretation. We present analytical predictions and experimental data to upper bound the elevation bias of the InSAR measurements over snow and snow-covered ice.

Transcriptomes and expression profiling of deep-sea corals from the Red Sea provide insight into the biology of azooxanthellate corals.

PubMed

Yum, Lauren K; Baumgarten, Sebastian; Röthig, Till; Roder, Cornelia; Roik, Anna; Michell, Craig; Voolstra, Christian R

2017-07-25

Despite the importance of deep-sea corals, our current understanding of their ecology and evolution is limited due to difficulties in sampling and studying deep-sea environments. Moreover, a recent re-evaluation of habitat limitations has been suggested after characterization of deep-sea corals in the Red Sea, where they live at temperatures of above 20 °C at low oxygen concentrations. To gain further insight into the biology of deep-sea corals, we produced reference transcriptomes and studied gene expression of three deep-sea coral species from the Red Sea, i.e. Dendrophyllia sp., Eguchipsammia fistula, and Rhizotrochus typus. Our analyses suggest that deep-sea coral employ mitochondrial hypometabolism and anaerobic glycolysis to manage low oxygen conditions present in the Red Sea. Notably, we found expression of genes related to surface cilia motion that presumably enhance small particle transport rates in the oligotrophic deep-sea environment. This is the first study to characterize transcriptomes and in situ gene expression for deep-sea corals. Our work offers several mechanisms by which deep-sea corals might cope with the distinct environmental conditions present in the Red Sea As such, our data provide direction for future research and further insight to organismal response of deep-sea coral to environmental change and ocean warming.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

PubMed

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Baseline Monitoring of the Western Arctic Ocean Estimates 20% of Canadian Basin Surface Waters Are Undersaturated with Respect to Aragonite

PubMed Central

Robbins, Lisa L.; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Lisle, John T.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Knorr, Paul O.; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu; Patsavas, Mark C.; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko; Takahashi, Taro

2013-01-01

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ∼20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater. PMID:24040074

Baseline monitoring of the western Arctic Ocean estimates 20% of the Canadian Basin surface waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Lisa L.; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Lisle, John T.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Knorr, Paul O.; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu; Patsavas, Mark C.; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko; Takahashi, Taro

2013-01-01

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ~20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

2017-12-01

We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

Ocean Winds and Turbulent Air-Sea Fluxes Inferred From Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourassa, Mark A.; Gille, Sarah T.; Jackson, Daren L.; Roberts, J. Brent; Wick, Gary A.

2010-01-01

Air-sea turbulent fluxes determine the exchange of momentum, heat, freshwater, and gas between the atmosphere and ocean. These exchange processes are critical to a broad range of research questions spanning length scales from meters to thousands of kilometers and time scales from hours to decades. Examples are discussed (section 2). The estimation of surface turbulent fluxes from satellite is challenging and fraught with considerable errors (section 3); however, recent developments in retrievals (section 3) will greatly reduce these errors. Goals for the future observing system are summarized in section 4. Surface fluxes are defined as the rate per unit area at which something (e.g., momentum, energy, moisture, or CO Z ) is transferred across the air/sea interface. Wind- and buoyancy-driven surface fluxes are called surface turbulent fluxes because the mixing and transport are due to turbulence. Examples of nonturbulent processes are radiative fluxes (e.g., solar radiation) and precipitation (Schmitt et al., 2010). Turbulent fluxes are strongly dependent on wind speed; therefore, observations of wind speed are critical for the calculation of all turbulent surface fluxes. Wind stress, the vertical transport of horizontal momentum, also depends on wind direction. Stress is very important for many ocean processes, including upper ocean currents (Dohan and Maximenko, 2010) and deep ocean currents (Lee et al., 2010). On short time scales, this horizontal transport is usually small compared to surface fluxes. For long-term processes, transport can be very important but again is usually small compared to surface fluxes.

Simple rules govern the patterns of Arctic sea ice melt ponds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovic, P.; Cael, B. B.; Abbot, D. S.; Silber, M.

2017-12-01

Climate change, amplified in the far north, has led to a rapid sea ice decline in recent years. Melt ponds that form on the surface of Arctic sea ice in the summer significantly lower the ice albedo, thereby accelerating ice melt. Pond geometry controls the details of this crucial feedback. However, currently it is unclear how to model this intricate geometry. Here we show that an extremely simple model of voids surrounding randomly sized and placed overlapping circles reproduces the essential features of pond patterns. The model has only two parameters, circle scale and the fraction of the surface covered by voids, and we choose them by comparing the model to pond images. Using these parameters the void model robustly reproduces all of the examined pond features such as the ponds' area-perimeter relationship and the area-abundance relationship over nearly 7 orders of magnitude. By analyzing airborne photographs of sea ice, we also find that the typical pond scale is surprisingly constant across different years, regions, and ice types. These results demonstrate that the geometric and abundance patterns of Arctic melt ponds can be simply described, and can guide future models of Arctic melt ponds to improve predictions of how sea ice will respond to Arctic warming.

Holocene sea surface temperature and sea ice extent in the Okhotsk and Bering Seas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harada, Naomi; Katsuki, Kota; Nakagawa, Mitsuhiro; Matsumoto, Akiko; Seki, Osamu; Addison, Jason A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Sato, Miyako

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of future climate requires an understanding of the mechanisms of the Holocene climate; however, the driving forces, mechanisms, and processes of climate change in the Holocene associated with different time scales remain unclear. We investigated the drivers of Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent in the North Pacific Ocean, and the Okhotsk and Bering Seas, as inferred from sediment core records, by using the alkenone unsaturation index as a biomarker of SST and abundances of sea ice-related diatoms (F. cylindrus and F. oceanica) as an indicator of sea ice extent to explore controlling mechanisms in the high-latitude Pacific. Temporal changes in alkenone content suggest that alkenone production was relatively high during the middle Holocene in the Okhotsk Sea and the western North Pacific, but highest in the late Holocene in the eastern Bering Sea and the eastern North Pacific. The Holocene variations of alkenone-SSTs at sites near Kamchatka in the Northwest Pacific, as well as in the western and eastern regions of the Bering Sea, and in the eastern North Pacific track the changes of Holocene summer insolation at 50°N, but at other sites in the western North Pacific, in the southern Okhotsk Sea, and the eastern Bering Sea they do not. In addition to insolation, other atmosphere and ocean climate drivers, such as sea ice distribution and changes in the position and activity of the Aleutian Low, may have systematically influenced the timing and magnitude of warming and cooling during the Holocene within the subarctic North Pacific. Periods of high sea ice extent in both the Okhotsk and Bering Seas may correspond to some periods of frequent or strong winter–spring dust storms in the Mongolian Gobi Desert, particularly one centered at ∼4–3 thousand years before present (kyr BP). Variation in storm activity in the Mongolian Gobi Desert region may reflect changes in the strength and positions of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High. We suggest that periods of eastward displacement or increased intensity of the Aleutian Low correspond with times of increased extent of sea ice in the western Okhotsk Sea and eastern Bering Sea.

Altitude dependency of future snow cover changes over Central Japan evaluated by a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, Hiroaki; Hara, Masayuki; Yoshikane, Takao; Ishizaki, Noriko N.; Uno, Fumichika; Hatsushika, Hiroaki; Kimura, Fujio

2013-11-01

Sea of Japan side of Central Japan is one of the heaviest snowfall areas in the world. We investigate near-future snow cover changes on the Sea of Japan side using a regional climate model. We perform the pseudo global warming (PGW) downscaling based on the five global climate models (GCMs). The changes in snow cover strongly depend on the elevation; decrease in the ratios of snow cover is larger in the lower elevations. The decrease ratios of the maximum accumulated snowfall in the short term, such as 1 day, are smaller than those in the long term, such as 1 week. We conduct the PGW experiments focusing on specific periods when a 2 K warming at 850 hPa is projected by the individual GCMs (PGW-2K85). The PGW-2K85 experiments show different changes in precipitation, resulting in snow cover changes in spite of similar warming conditions. Simplified sensitivity experiments that assume homogenous warming of the atmosphere (2 K) and the sea surface show that the altitude dependency of snow cover changes is similar to that in the PGW-2K85 experiments, while the uncertainty of changes in the sea surface temperature influences the snow cover changes both in the lower and higher elevations. The decrease in snowfall is, however, underestimated in the simplified sensitivity experiments as compared with the PGW experiments. Most GCMs project an increase in dry static stability and some GCMs project an anticyclonic anomaly over Central Japan, indicating the inhibition of precipitation, including snowfall, in the PGW experiments.

Advanced systems requirements for ocean observations via microwave radiometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blume, H.-J. C.; Swift, C. T.; Kendall, B. M.

1978-01-01

A future microwave spectroradiometer operating in several frequency bands will have the capability to step or sweep frequencies on an adaptable or programmable basis. The on-board adaptable frequency shifting can make the systems immune from radio interference. Programmable frequency sweeping with on-board data inversion by high speed computers would provide for instantaneous synoptic measurements or sea surface temperature and salinity, water surface and volume pollution, ice thickness, ocean surface winds, snow depth, and soil moisture. Large structure satellites will allow an order of magnitude improvement in the present radiometric measurement spacial resolution.

Timing of sea ice retreat can alter phytoplankton community structure in the western Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiwara, A.; Hirawake, T.; Suzuki, K.; Imai, I.; Saitoh, S.-I.

2014-04-01

This study assesses the response of phytoplankton assemblages to recent climate change, especially with regard to the shrinking of sea ice in the northern Chukchi Sea of the western Arctic Ocean. Distribution patterns of phytoplankton groups in the late summers of 2008-2010 were analysed based on HPLC pigment signatures and, the following four major algal groups were inferred via multiple regression and cluster analyses: prasinophytes, diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates. A remarkable interannual difference in the distribution pattern of the groups was found in the northern basin area. Haptophytes dominated and dispersed widely in warm surface waters in 2008, whereas prasinophytes dominated in cold water in 2009 and 2010. A difference in the onset date of sea ice retreat was evident among years-the sea ice retreat in 2008 was 1-2 months earlier than in 2009 and 2010. The spatial distribution of early sea ice retreat matched the areas in which a shift in algal community composition was observed. Steel-Dwass's multiple comparison tests were used to assess the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the four clusters. We found a statistically significant difference in temperature between the haptophyte-dominated cluster and the other clusters, suggesting that the change in the phytoplankton communities was related to the earlier sea ice retreat in 2008 and the corollary increase in sea surface temperatures. Longer periods of open water during the summer, which are expected in the future, may affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles in the western Arctic due to shifts in phytoplankton community structure.

Timing of sea ice retreat can alter phytoplankton community structure in the western Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

name prefix surname suffix, given; Fujiwara, A.; Hirawake, T.; Suzuki, K.; Imai, I.; Saitoh, S.-I.

2013-09-01

This study assesses the response of phytoplankton assemblages to recent climate change, especially with regard to the shrinking of sea ice in the northern Chukchi Sea of the western Arctic Ocean. Distribution patterns of phytoplankton groups in the late summers of 2008-2010 were analyzed based on HPLC pigment signatures and, the following four major algal groups were inferred via multiple regression and cluster analyses: prasinophytes, diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates. A remarkable interannual difference in the distribution pattern of the groups was found in the northern basin area. Haptophytes dominated and dispersed widely in warm surface waters in 2008, whereas prasinophytes dominated in cold water in 2009 and 2010. A difference in the onset date of sea ice retreat was evident among years - the sea ice retreat in 2008 was 1-2 months earlier than in 2009 and 2010. The spatial distribution of early sea ice retreat matched the areas in which a shift in algal community composition was observed. Steel-Dwass's multiple comparison tests were used to assess the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the four clusters. We found a statistically significant difference in temperature between the haptophyte-dominated cluster and the other clusters, suggesting that the change in the phytoplankton communities was related to the earlier sea ice retreat in 2008 and the corollary increase in sea surface temperatures. Longer periods of open water during the summer, which are expected in the future, may affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles in the western Arctic due to shifts in phytoplankton community structure.

Linking Global to Regional Models to Assess Future Climate Impacts on Surface Ozone Concentrations in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The UCD sectional aerosol model has been coupled to the CMAQ air quality model and used to simulate air quality in Tampa, Florida. Sea salt emissions are parameterized as a function of modeled wind speed and relative humidity. Modeled aerosol sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sodium,...

Sea Surface Scanner: An advanced catamaran to study the sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, O.; Mustaffa, N. I. H.; Ribas Ribas, M.

2016-02-01

The Sea Surface Scanner is a remote-controlled catamaran with the capability to sample the sea-surface microlayer in high resolution. The catamaran is equipped with a suite of sensors to scan the sea surface on chemical, biological and physical parameters. Parameters include UV absorption, fluorescence spectra, chlorophyll-a, photosynthetic efficiency, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature, and salinity. A further feature is a capability to collect remotely discrete water samples for detailed lab analysis. We present the first high-resolution (< 30 sec) data on the sea surface microlayer. We discuss the variability of biochemical properties of the sea surface and its implication on air-sea interaction.

Simulation of global oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by an optimal bulk formulation derived from multi-campaign measurements.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garric, G.; Pirani, A.; Belamari, S.; Caniaux, G.

2006-12-01

order to improve the air/sea interface for the future MERCATOR global ocean operational system, we have implemented the new bulk formulation developed by METEO-FRANCE (French Meteo office) in the MERCATOR 2 degree global ocean-ice coupled model (ORCA2/LIM). A single bulk formulation for the drag, temperature and moisture exchange coefficients is derived from an extended consistent database gathering 10 years of measurements issued from five experiments dedicated to air-sea fluxes estimates (SEMAPHORE, CATCH, FETCH, EQUALANT99 and POMME) in various oceanic basins (from Northern to equatorial Atlantic). The available database (ALBATROS) cover the widest range of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, from very light (0.3 m/s) to very strong (up to 29 m/s) wind speeds, and from unstable to extremely stable atmospheric boundary layer stratification. We have defined a work strategy to test this new formulation in a global oceanic context, by using this multi- campaign bulk formulation to derive air-sea fluxes from base meteorological variables produces by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range and Weather Forecast) atmospheric forecast model, in order to get surface boundary conditions for ORCA2/LIM. The simulated oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by the previous air/sea interface are compared to those forced by the optimal bulk formulation. Consecutively with generally weaker transfer coefficient, the latter formulation reduces the cold bias in the equatorial Pacific and increases the too weak summer sea ice extent in Antarctica. Compared to a recent mixed layer depth (MLD) climatology, the optimal bulk formulation reduces also the too deep simulated MLDs. Comparison with in situ temperature and salinity profiles in different areas allowed us to evaluate the impact of changing the air/sea interface in the vertical structure.

Simulation of an oil film at the sea surface and its radiometric properties in the SWIR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwenger, Frédéric; Van Eijk, Alexander M. J.

2017-10-01

The knowledge of the optical contrast of an oil layer on the sea under various surface roughness conditions is of great interest for oil slick monitoring techniques. This paper presents a 3D simulation of a dynamic sea surface contaminated by a floating oil film. The simulation considers the damping influence of oil on the ocean waves and its physical properties. It calculates the radiance contrast of the sea surface polluted by the oil film in relation to a clean sea surface for the SWIR spectral band. Our computer simulation combines the 3D simulation of a maritime scene (open clear sea/clear sky) with an oil film at the sea surface. The basic geometry of a clean sea surface is modeled by a composition of smooth wind driven gravity waves. Oil on the sea surface attenuates the capillary and short gravity waves modulating the wave power density spectrum of these waves. The radiance of the maritime scene is calculated in the SWIR spectral band with the emitted sea surface radiance and the specularly reflected sky radiance as components. Wave hiding and shadowing, especially occurring at low viewing angles, are considered. The specular reflection of the sky radiance at the clean sea surface is modeled by an analytical statistical bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of the sea surface. For oil at the sea surface, a specific BRDF is used influenced by the reduced surface roughness, i.e., the modulated wave density spectrum. The radiance contrast of an oil film in relation to the clean sea surface is calculated for different viewing angles, wind speeds, and oil types characterized by their specific physical properties.

Investigating Effects of Monsoon Winds on Hydrodynamics in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chua, V. P.

2013-12-01

The South China Sea is a large marginal sea surrounded by land masses and island chains, and characterized by complex bathymetry and irregular coastlines. The circulation in South China Sea is subjected to seasonal and inter-annual variations of tidal and meteorological conditions. The effects of monsoon winds on hydrodynamics is investigated by applying spectral and harmonic analysis on surface elevation and wind data at stations located in the South China Sea. The analysis indicates varying responses to the seasonal monsoon depending on the location of the station. At Kaohsiung (located in northern South China Sea off Taiwan coast), tides from the Pacific Ocean and the southwest monsoon winds are found to be dominant mechanisms. The Kota Kinabalu and Bintulu stations, located to the east of South China Sea off Borneo coast, are influenced by low energy complex winds, and the shallow bottom bathymetry at these locations leads to tidal energy damping compared to other stations. The tidal dynamics at Tioman, located in southern South China Sea off Malaysia coast, are most responsive to the effects of the northeast monsoon. The complexity of our problem together with the limited amount of available data in the region presents a challenging research topic. An unstructured-grid SUNTANS model is employed to perform three-dimensional simulations of the circulation in South China Sea. Skill assessment of the model is performed by comparing model predictions of the surface elevations and currents with observations. The results suggest that the quality of the model prediction is highly dependent on horizontal grid resolution and coastline accuracy. The model may be used in future applications to investigate seasonal and inter-annual variations in hydrodynamics.

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;

Phytoplankton assemblages and lipid biomarkers indicate sea-surface warming and sea-ice decline in the Ross Sea during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 5e

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Julian D.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Peterse, Francien; Barcena, Maria A.; Albertazzi, Sonia; Asioli, Alessandra; Giglio, Federico; Langone, Leonardo; Tateo, Fabio; Trincardi, Fabio

2016-04-01

The Marine Isotope sub-Stage 5e (~ 125 - 119 kyrs BP), the last interglacial period before the present, is believed to have been globally warmer (~ 2°C) than today. Studying this time interval might therefore provide insights into near future climate state given the ongoing climate change and global temperature increase. Of particular interest are the expected changes in polar ice cover. One important aspect of the cryosphere is sea-ice, which influences albedo, deep and surface water currents, and phytoplankton production, and thus affects the global climate system. To investigate whether changes in sea-ice cover occurred in the Southern Ocean close to Antarctica during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 5e dinoflagellate and diatom assemblages have been analyzed in core AS05-10, drilled in the continental slope off the Drygalski basin (Ross Sea) at a water depth of 2377 m. The core was drilled within the frame of the PNRA 2009/A2.01 project, an Italian project with a multidisciplinary approach, and covers the interval from Present to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7. The core stratigraphy is based on diatom bioevents and on the climate cyclicity provided by the variations of the diatom assemblages. For this study we focused on the interval from MIS7 to MIS5. A strong reduction of sea-ice-loving diatom taxa with respect to open water-loving diatom taxa is observed during MIS5. In general the production of phytoplankton increases at the base of MIS5 and then slowly decreases. Dinoflagellate cysts, particularly heterotrophic species, are abundant during MIS5e only. The sea surface temperature reconstruction based on the TEX86L, a proxy based on lipid biomarkers produced by Thaumarcheota, shows a 4°C temperature increase from MIS6 to MIS5e. A slightly smaller temperature increase is observed at the onset of MIS7, but this stage is barren of heterotrophic dinoflagellates. All proxies together seem to indicate that the retreat of the summer sea-ice in the Ross Sea during MIS5e was likely greater than that during MIS7.

High Lapse Rates in AIRS Retrieved Temperatures in Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fetzer, Eric J.; Kahn, Brian; Olsen, Edward T.; Fishbein, Evan

2004-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) experiment, on NASA's Aqua spacecraft, uses a combination of infrared and microwave observations to retrieve cloud and surface properties, plus temperature and water vapor profiles comparable to radiosondes throughout the troposphere, for cloud cover up to 70%. The high spectral resolution of AIRS provides sensitivity to important information about the near-surface atmosphere and underlying surface. A preliminary analysis of AIRS temperature retrievals taken during January 2003 reveals extensive areas of superadiabatic lapse rates in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere. These areas are found predominantly east of North America over the Gulf Stream, and, off East Asia over the Kuroshio Current. Accompanying the high lapse rates are low air temperatures, large sea-air temperature differences, and low relative humidities. Imagery from a Visible / Near Infrared instrument on the AIRS experiment shows accompanying clouds. These lines of evidence all point to shallow convection in the bottom layer of a cold air mass overlying warm water, with overturning driven by heat flow from ocean to atmosphere. An examination of operational radiosondes at six coastal stations in Japan shows AIRS to be oversensitive to lower tropospheric lapse rates due to systematically warm near-surface air temperatures. The bias in near-surface air temperature is seen to be independent of sea surface temperature, however. AIRS is therefore sensitive to air-sea temperature difference, but with a warm atmospheric bias. A regression fit to radiosondes is used to correct AIRS near-surface retrieved temperatures, and thereby obtain an estimate of the true atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast in five subtropical regions across the north Pacific. Moving eastward, we show a systematic shift in this air-sea temperature differences toward more isothermal conditions. These results, while preliminary, have implications for our understanding of heat flow from ocean to atmosphere. We anticipate future improvements in the AIRS retrieval algorithm will lead to improved understanding of the exchange of sensible and latent heat from ocean to atmosphere, and more realistic near-surface lapse rates.

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; Rennermalm, Asa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Bracco, Annalisa; Yager, Patricia L.; Mote, Thomas L.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

Estimation of Global Subsurface Thermal Structure from Satellite Remote Sensing Observations Based on Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, H.; Yan, X. H.

2017-12-01

Subsurface thermal structure of the global ocean is a key factor that reflects the impact of the global climate variability and change. Accurately determining and describing the global subsurface and deeper ocean thermal structure from satellite measurements is becoming even more important for understanding the ocean interior anomaly and dynamic processes during recent global warming and hiatus. It is essential but challenging to determine the extent to which such surface remote sensing observations can be used to develop information about the global ocean interior. This study proposed a Support Vector Regression (SVR) method to estimate Subsurface Temperature Anomaly (STA) in the global ocean. The SVR model can well estimate the global STA upper 1000 m through a suite of satellite remote sensing observations of sea surface parameters (including Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA), Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA), Sea Surface Salinity Anomaly (SSSA) and Sea Surface Wind Anomaly (SSWA)) with in situ Argo data for training and testing at different depth levels. Here, we employed the MSE and R2 to assess SVR performance on the STA estimation. The results from the SVR model were validated for the accuracy and reliability using the worldwide Argo STA data. The average MSE and R2 of the 15 levels are 0.0090 / 0.0086 / 0.0087 and 0.443 / 0.457 / 0.485 for 2-attributes (SSHA, SSTA) / 3-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA) / 4-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA) SVR, respectively. The estimation accuracy was improved by including SSSA and SSWA for SVR input (MSE decreased by 0.4% / 0.3% and R2 increased by 1.4% / 4.2% on average). While, the estimation accuracy gradually decreased with the increase of the depth from 500 m. The results showed that SSSA and SSWA, in addition to SSTA and SSHA, are useful parameters that can help estimate the subsurface thermal structure, as well as improve the STA estimation accuracy. In future, we can figure out more potential and useful sea surface parameters from satellite remote sensing as input attributes so as to further improve the STA sensing accuracy from machine learning. This study can provide a helpful technique for studying thermal variability in the ocean interior which has played an important role in recent global warming and hiatus from satellite observations over global scale.

Developing and Implementing Protocols for Arctic Sea Ice Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, Donald K.; Gerland, Sebastian

2009-05-01

Arctic Surface-Based Sea Ice Observations: Integrated Protocols and Coordinated Data Acquisition; Tromsø, Norway, 26-27 January 2009; The Arctic sea ice cover is diminishing. Over the past several years, not only has ice thinned but the extent of ice at the end of summer, and hence perennial ice, has declined markedly. These changes affect a wide range of issues and are important for a varied group of stakeholders, including Arctic coastal communities, policy makers, industry, the scientific community, and the public. Concerns range from the role of sea ice cover as an indicator and amplifier of climate change to marine transportation, resource extraction, and coastal erosion. To understand and respond to these ongoing changes, it is imperative to develop and implement consistent and robust observational protocols that can be used to describe the current state of the ice cover as well as future changes.

Simulating Dust Regional Impact on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2017-04-01

Dust is one of the most abundant aerosols, however, currently only a few regional climate downscalings account for dust. This study focuses on the Middle East and the Red Sea regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. The Red Sea is located between North Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which are first and third largest source regions of dust, respectively. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high dust optical depths in the region, especially over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. Modeled atmospheric radiative forcing at the surface, top of the atmosphere and absorption in the atmospheric column indicate that dust significantly perturbs radiative balance. Top of the atmosphere modeled forcing is validated against independently derived GERB satellite product. Due to strong radiative forcing at the sea surface (daily mean forcing during summer reaches -32 Wm-2 and 10 Wm-2 in SW and LW, respectively), using uncoupled ocean model with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions would result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea thermal regime and circulation. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix, and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.3-0.5 K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in the formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in future modeling studies.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Color Variability in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conaty, A. P.

2001-12-01

The South China Sea is a marginal sea in the Southeast Asian region whose surface circulation is driven by monsoons and whose surface currents have complex seasonal patterns. Its rich natural resources and strategic location have made its small islands areas of political dispute among the neighboring nations. This study aims to show the seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface temperature and ocean color in South China Sea. It makes use of NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data sets on sea surface temperature for the period 1981-2000 and NASA's Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data sets on pigment concentration (ocean color) for the period 1981-1996 and 1997-2000, respectively. Transect lines were drawn along several potential hotspot areas to show the variability in sea surface temperature and pigment concentration through time. In-situ data on sea surface temperature along South China Sea were likewise plotted to see the variability with time. Higher seasonal variability in sea surface temperature was seen at higher latitudes. Interannual variability was within 1-3 Kelvin. In most areas, pigment concentration was higher during northern hemisphere winter and autumn, after the monsoon rains, with a maximum of 30 milligrams per cubic meter.

Observational determination of the greenhouse effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raval, A.; Ramanathan, V.

1989-01-01

Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the greenhouse effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.

Loss of connectivity among island-dwelling Peary caribou following sea ice decline.

PubMed

Jenkins, Deborah A; Lecomte, Nicolas; Schaefer, James A; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Côté, Steeve D; Pellissier, Loïc; Yannic, Glenn

2016-09-01

Global warming threatens to reduce population connectivity for terrestrial wildlife through significant and rapid changes to sea ice. Using genetic fingerprinting, we contrasted extant connectivity in island-dwelling Peary caribou in northern Canada with continental-migratory caribou. We next examined if sea-ice contractions in the last decades modulated population connectivity and explored the possible impact of future climate change on long-term connectivity among island caribou. We found a strong correlation between genetic and geodesic distances for both continental and Peary caribou, even after accounting for the possible effect of sea surface. Sea ice has thus been an effective corridor for Peary caribou, promoting inter-island connectivity and population mixing. Using a time series of remote sensing sea-ice data, we show that landscape resistance in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has increased by approximately 15% since 1979 and may further increase by 20-77% by 2086 under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Under the persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, reduced connectivity may isolate island-dwelling caribou with potentially significant consequences for population viability. © 2016 The Author(s).

A New Study of Sea Spray Optical Properties from Multi-Sensor Spaceborne Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, K. W.; Meskhidze, N.; Josset, D.; Gasso, S.

2014-01-01

Retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite sensor require the assumption of an extinction-to-backscatter ratio, also known as the lidar ratio. This paper evaluates a new method to calculate lidar ratio of sea spray aerosol using two independent sources: the AOD from Synergized Optical Depth of Aerosols (SODA) and the integrated attenuated backscatter from CALIOP. The method applied in this study allows particulate lidar ratio to be calculated for individual CALIOP retrievals of single aerosol layer columns over the ocean. Analyses are carried out using CALIOP level 2, 5km sea spray aerosol layer products and collocated SODA nighttime data from December 2007 to December 2009. The global mean lidar ratio for sea spray aerosols was found to be 26 sr, roughly 30 higher than the one prescribed by CALIOP. Data analysis also showed considerable spatiotemporal variability in calculated lidar ratio over different parts of the remote oceans. The calculated aerosol lidar ratios are shown to be inversely related to the mean ocean surface wind speed: increase in ocean surface wind speed (U10) from 0 to 15 ms-1 reduces the mean lidar ratios for sea spray particles from 32 sr (for 0 U10 4 ms-1) to 22 sr (for U10 15 ms-1). Such changes in the lidar ratio are expected to have a corresponding effect on sea spray AOD. The outcomes of this study are relevant for future improvements of the SODA and CALIOP operational product and could lead to more accurate retrievals of sea spray AOD.

The impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the hydrological budget of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.; Kohler, J.

2009-12-01

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. GCMs suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by about 1.5 due, largely, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the ensemble GCM predictions and has lead to the suggestion that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as soon as ~2014. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the water below during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. For example, changes in sea ice cover are thought to have caused changes in the mass balance of Europe’s largest ice cap, Austfona, Svalbard, by increasing accumulation. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmosphere only general circulation model HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice obtained by extrapolating recent changes into the future using bootstrapping based on the HadISST climatology. Here we use an RCM at 25km resolution over the Arctic which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation.

Deep winter convection and phytoplankton dynamics in the NW Mediterranean Sea under present climate and future (horizon 2030) scenarios.

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

2018-04-26

Deep water convection (DC) in winter is one of the major processes driving open-ocean primary productivity in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. DC is highly variable in time, depending on the specific conditions (stratification, circulation and ocean-atmosphere interactions) of each specific winter. This variability also drives the interannual oscillations of open-ocean primary productivity in this important region for many commercially-important fish species. We use a coupled model system to 1) understand to what extent DC impacts phytoplankton seasonality in the present-day and 2) to explore potential changes in future scenarios (~2030). Our model represents quite accurately the present-day characteristics of DC and its importance for open-ocean phytoplankton blooms. However, for the future scenarios the importance of deep nutrients in fertilizing the euphotic layer of the NW Mediterranean decreases. The model simulates changes in surface density and on the levels of kinetic energy that make mesoscale activity associated with horizontal currents to become a more important fertilization mechanism, inducing subsequently phenological changes in seasonal plankton cycles. Because of our focus on the open-sea, an exact quantification of the impact of those changes on the overall biological production of the NW Mediterranean cannot be made at the moment.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

PubMed

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic. 

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

Fabrication and characterization of microsieve electrode array (µSEA) enabling cell positioning on 3D electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurink, B.; Tiggelaar, R. M.; Gardeniers, J. G. E.; Luttge, R.

2017-01-01

Here the fabrication and characterization of a novel microelectrode array for electrophysiology applications is described, termed a micro sieve electrode array (µSEA). This silicon based µSEA device allows for hydrodynamic parallel positioning of single cells on 3D electrodes realized on the walls of inverted pyramidal shaped pores. To realize the µSEA, a previously realized silicon sieving structure is provided with a patterned boron doped poly-silicon, connecting the contact electrodes with the 3D sensing electrodes in the pores. A LPCVD silicon-rich silicon nitride layer was used as insulation. The selective opening of this insulation layer at the ends of the wiring lines allows to generate well-defined contact and sensing electrodes according to the layout used in commercial microelectrode array readers. The main challenge lays in the simultaneously selective etching of material at both the planar surface (contact electrode) as well as in the sieving structure containing the (3D) pores (sensing electrodes). For the generation of 3D electrodes in the pores a self-aligning technique was developed using the pore geometry to our advantage. This technique, based on sacrificial layer etching, allows for the fine tuning of the sensing electrode surface area and thus supports the positioning and coupling of single cells on the electrode surface in relation to the cell size. Furthermore, a self-aligning silicide is formed on the sensing electrodes to favour the electrical properties. Experiments were performed to demonstrate the working principle of the µSEA using different types of neuronal cells. Capture efficiency in the pores was  >70% with a 70% survival rate of the cell maintained for up to 14 DIV. The TiSi2-boron-doped-poly-silicon sensing electrodes of the µSEA were characterized, which indicated noise levels of  <15 µV and impedance values of 360 kΩ. These findings potentially allow for future electrophysiological measurements using the µSEA.

Watching the Blue Planet from Space over Recent Decades: What's up for Science and Society?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindstrom, Eric J.

2015-01-01

Since the first photographs of “Earth Rise” taken by the Apollo astronauts in the 1960s galvanized the environmental movement, imaging of our planet from low Earth orbit has grown more sophisticated and diverse. Satellite and astronaut observations and imagery of the changing ocean still have the power to galvanize oceanographers and society. So what are some of the key ideas for oceanography and society that come out of out recent decades of ocean observation from space? Satellite oceanography has made fundamental contributions to our understanding and estimation of changing sea level, winds and storminess over the oceans, primary productivity of the seas, the role of the ocean in the water cycle, and the changes in the ocean known as ocean acidification. Some of these phenomena interact in complex ways and Mother Nature hides the future well. However, some things are clear. Sea level rise has been monitored from space for more than 20 years and now we have a more nuanced understanding of regional variation in sea level rise and the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Wind vectors at the ocean surface have been measured for more than 2 decades and provide evidence for shifts in wind patterns that help, for example, explain some of the regional variations in sea level rise. Chlorophyll-a has been estimated in a multi-decadal record of observations and is being used to describe the shifts and trends in ocean primary productivity. Sea surface temperature estimation from space has records going back to the 1970s and provides critical information for the interaction of the ocean with the atmosphere. Sea surface salinity has been measured from space only within the last decade and provides a novel new view of regional, seasonal, and inter-annual changes in the ocean related to precipitation, river run-off, and eddy transport. Potential changes in the Earth’s water cycle have a huge societal impact.

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

The SeaDAS Processing and Analysis System: SeaWiFS, MODIS, and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, M. D.; Ruebens, M.; Wang, L.; Franz, B. A.

2005-12-01

The SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS) is a comprehensive software package for the processing, display, and analysis of ocean data from a variety of satellite sensors. Continuous development and user support by programmers and scientists for more than a decade has helped to make SeaDAS the most widely used software package in the world for ocean color applications, with a growing base of users from the land and sea surface temperature community. Full processing support for past (CZCS, OCTS, MOS) and present (SeaWiFS, MODIS) sensors, and anticipated support for future missions such as NPP/VIIRS, enables end users to reproduce the standard ocean archive product suite distributed by NASA's Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG), as well as a variety of evaluation and intermediate ocean, land, and atmospheric products. Availability of the processing algorithm source codes and a software build environment also provide users with the tools to implement custom algorithms. Recent SeaDAS enhancements include synchronization of MODIS processing with the latest code and calibration updates from the MODIS Calibration Support Team (MCST), support for all levels of MODIS processing including Direct Broadcast, a port to the Macintosh OS X operating system, release of the display/analysis-only SeaDAS-Lite, and an extremely active web-based user support forum.

Oil Palm expansion over Southeast Asia: land use change and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, S. J.; Heald, C. L.; Geddes, J.; Marlier, M. E.; Austin, K.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

2015-12-01

Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA). Much of this expansion has come at the expense of natural forests and grasslands. Aircraft measurements from a 2008 campaign, OP3, found that oil palm plantations emit as much as 7 times more isoprene than nearby natural forests. Furthermore, SEA is a rapidly developing region, with increasing urban population, and growing air quality concerns. Thus, SEA represents an ideal case study to examine the impacts of land use change on air quality in the region, and whether those changes can be detected from satellite observations of atmospheric composition. We investigate the impacts of historical and future oil palm expansion in SEA using satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the impact of palm plantations on surface-atmosphere processes (dry deposition, biogenic emissions). We show the sensitivity of air quality to current and future oil palm expansion scenarios, and discuss the limitations of current satellite measurements in capturing these changes. Our results indicate that while the impact of oil palm expansion on air quality can be significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space.

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Ocean Drifters Get the Facts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

With the help of Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) funding from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, of Greenbelt, Maryland, Clearwater Instrumentation, of Watertown, Massachusetts, created the ClearSat-Autonomous Drifting Ocean Station (ADOS). The multi-sensor array ocean drifting station was developed to support observations of Earth by NASA satellites. It is a low-cost device for gathering an assortment of data necessary to the integration of present and future satellite measurements of biological and physical processes. Clearwater Instrumentation developed its ADOS technology based on Goddard's Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) project, but on a scale that is practical for commercial use. ADOS is used for the in situ measuring of ocean surface layer properties such as ocean color, surface thermal structure, and surface winds. Thus far, multiple ADOS units have been sold to The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, where they are being applied in the field of academic science research. Fisheries can also benefit, because ADOS can locate prime cultivation conditions for this fast-growing industry.

Evaluation of Long-term Aerosol Data Records from SeaWiFS over Land and Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettenhausen, C.; Hsu, C.; Jeong, M.; Huang, J.

2010-12-01

Deserts around the globe produce mineral dust aerosols that may then be transported over cities, across continents, or even oceans. These aerosols affect the Earth’s energy balance through direct and indirect interactions with incoming solar radiation. They also have a biogeochemical effect as they deliver scarce nutrients to remote ecosystems. Large dust storms regularly disrupt air traffic and are a general nuisance to those living in transport regions. In the past, measuring dust aerosols has been incomplete at best. Satellite retrieval algorithms were limited to oceans or vegetated surfaces and typically neglected desert regions due to their high surface reflectivity in the mid-visible and near-infrared wavelengths, which have been typically used for aerosol retrievals. The Deep Blue aerosol retrieval algorithm was developed to resolve these shortcomings by utilizing the blue channels from instruments such as the Sea-Viewing Wide-Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to infer aerosol properties over these highly reflective surfaces. The surface reflectivity of desert regions is much lower in the blue channels and thus it is easier to separate the aerosol and surface signals than at the longer wavelengths used in other algorithms. More recently, the Deep Blue algorithm has been expanded to retrieve over vegetated surfaces and oceans as well. A single algorithm can now follow dust from source to sink. In this work, we introduce the SeaWiFS instrument and the Deep Blue aerosol retrieval algorithm. We have produced global aerosol data records over land and ocean from 1997 through 2009 using the Deep Blue algorithm and SeaWiFS data. We describe these data records and validate them with data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). We also show the relative performance compared to the current MODIS Deep Blue operational aerosol data in desert regions. The current results are encouraging and this dataset will be useful to future studies in understanding the effects of dust aerosols on global processes, long-term aerosol trends, quantifying dust emissions, transport, and inter-annual variability.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.

2011-01-01

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

2011-05-31

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

The Development of a Sea Surface Height Climate Data Record from Multi-mission Altimeter Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckley, B. D.; Ray, R. D.; Lemoine, F. G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Desai, S. D.; Brown, S.; Mitchum, G. T.; Nerem, R.; Yang, X.; Holmes, S. A.

2011-12-01

The determination of the rate of change of mean sea level (MSL) has undeniable societal significance. The science value of satellite altimeter observations has grown dramatically over time as improved models and technologies have increased the value of data acquired on both past and present missions enabling credible MSL estimates. With the prospect of an observational time series extending into several decades from TOPEX/Poseidon through Jason-1 and the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM), and further in time with a future set of operational altimeters, researchers are pushing the bounds of current technology and modeling capability in order to monitor global and regional sea level rates at an accuracy of a few tenths of a mm/yr. GRACE data analysis suggests that the ice melt from Alaska alone contributes 0.3 mm/y to global sea level rise. The measurement of MSL change from satellite altimetry requires an extreme stability of the altimeter measurement system since the signal being measured is at the level of a few mm/yr. This means that the orbit and reference frame within which the altimeter measurements are situated, and the associated altimeter corrections, must be stable and accurate enough to permit a robust MSL estimate. Foremost, orbit quality and consistency are critical not only to satellite altimeter measurement accuracy across one mission, but also for the seamless transition between missions (Beckley, et. al, 2005). The analysis of altimeter data for TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and OSTM requires that the orbits for all three missions be in a consistent reference frame, and calculated with the best possible standards to minimize error and maximize the data return from the time series, particularly with respect to the demanding application of measuring sea level trends. In this presentation we describe the development and utility of the MEaSURE's TPJAOS V1.0 sea surface height Climate Data Record (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/MERGED_TP_J1_OSTM_OST_ALL). We provide an assessment of recent improvements to the accuracy of the 19-year sea surface height time series, describe continuing calibration/validation activities, and evaluate the subsequent impact on global and regional mean sea level estimates.

Evidence of exceptional oyster-reef resilience to fluctuations in sea level.

PubMed

Ridge, Justin T; Rodriguez, Antonio B; Fodrie, F Joel

2017-12-01

Ecosystems at the land-sea interface are vulnerable to rising sea level. Intertidal habitats must maintain their surface elevations with respect to sea level to persist via vertical growth or landward retreat, but projected rates of sea-level rise may exceed the accretion rates of many biogenic habitats. While considerable attention is focused on climate change over centennial timescales, relative sea level also fluctuates dramatically (10-30 cm) over month-to-year timescales due to interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. To assess the response of oyster-reef ( Crassostrea virginica ) growth to interannual variations in mean sea level (MSL) and improve long-term forecasts of reef response to rising seas, we monitored the morphology of constructed and natural intertidal reefs over 5 years using terrestrial lidar. Timing of reef scans created distinct periods of high and low relative water level for decade-old reefs ( n  = 3) constructed in 1997 and 2000, young reefs ( n  = 11) constructed in 2011 and one natural reef (approximately 100 years old). Changes in surface elevation were related to MSL trends. Decade-old reefs achieved 2 cm/year growth, which occurred along higher elevations when MSL increased. Young reefs experienced peak growth (6.7 cm/year) at a lower elevation that coincided with a drop in MSL. The natural reef exhibited considerable loss during the low MSL of the first time step but grew substantially during higher MSL through the second time step, with growth peaking (4.3 cm/year) at MSL, reoccupying the elevations previously lost. Oyster reefs appear to be in dynamic equilibrium with short-term (month-to-year) fluctuations in sea level, evidencing notable resilience to future changes to sea level that surpasses other coastal biogenic habitat types. These growth patterns support the presence of a previously defined optimal growth zone that shifts correspondingly with changes in MSL, which can help guide oyster-reef conservation and restoration.

Interactions of arctic clouds, radiation, and sea ice in present-day and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, Melissa Ann

The Arctic climate system involves complex interactions among the atmosphere, land surface, and the sea-ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Observed changes in the Arctic have emerged and projected climate trends are of significant concern. Surface warming over the last few decades is nearly double that of the entire Earth. Reduced sea-ice extent and volume, changes to ecosystems, and melting permafrost are some examples of noticeable changes in the region. This work is aimed at improving our understanding of how Arctic clouds interact with, and influence, the surface budget, how clouds influence the distribution of sea ice, and the role of downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) in climate change. In the first half of this study, we explore the roles of sea-ice thickness and downwelling longwave radiation in Arctic amplification. As the Arctic sea ice thins and ultimately disappears in a warming climate, its insulating power decreases. This causes the surface air temperature to approach the temperature of the relatively warm ocean water below the ice. The resulting increases in air temperature, water vapor and cloudiness lead to an increase in the surface downwelling longwave radiation, which enables a further thinning of the ice. This positive ice-insulation feedback operates mainly in the autumn and winter. A climate-change simulation with the Community Earth System Model shows that, averaged over the year, the increase in Arctic DLR is three times stronger than the increase in Arctic absorbed solar radiation at the surface. The warming of the surface air over the Arctic Ocean during fall and winter creates a strong thermal contrast with the colder surrounding continents. Sea-level pressure falls over the Arctic Ocean and the high-latitude circulation reorganizes into a shallow "winter monsoon." The resulting increase in surface wind speed promotes stronger surface evaporation and higher humidity over portions of the Arctic Ocean, thus reinforcing the ice-insulation feedback. In the second half of this study, we explore the effects of super-parameterization on the Arctic climate by evaluating a number of key atmospheric characteristics that strongly influence the regional and global climate. One aspect in particular that we examine is the occurrence of Arctic weather states. Observations show that during winter the Arctic exhibits two preferred and persistent states --- a radiatively clear and an opaquely cloudy state. These distinct regimes are influenced by the phase of the clouds and affect the surface radiative fluxes. We explore the radiative and microphysical effects of these Arctic clouds and the influence on these regimes in two present-day climate simulations. We compare simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart (SP-CESM). We find that the SP-CESM is able to better reproduce both of the preferred winter states, compared to CESM, and has an overall more realistic representation of the Arctic climate.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.

2017-03-01

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K

2017-03-15

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Predicting the Arctic Ocean Environment in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, George

2015-04-01

Recent environmental changes in the Arctic have clearly demonstrated that climate change is faster and more vigorously in the Polar Regions than anywhere else. Significantly, change in the Arctic Ocean (AO) environment presents a variety of impacts, from ecological to social-economic and political. Mitigation of this change and adaptation to it requires detailed and robust environmental predictions. Here we present a detailed projection of ocean circulation and sea ice from the present until 2099, based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the NEMO ¼ degree ocean model. The model is forced at the surface with HadGEM2-ES atmosphere model output from the UK Met. Office IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The HadGEM2-ES simulations span 1860-2099 and are one of an ensemble of runs performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and IPCC AR5. Between 2000-2009 and 2090-2099 the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increasing on average by about 4° C, particularly in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. By the end of the simulation, Arctic sea ice has an average annual thickness of less than 10 cm in the central AO, and less than 0.5 m in the East-Siberian Sea and Canadian Archipelago, and disappears entirely during the Arctic summer. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface waves leads to the Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In winter, sea ice persists until the 2030s; then it sharply declines and disappears from the Central Arctic Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with MIZ provinces remaining in winter along the Siberian, Alaskan coasts and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Analysis of the AO circulation reveals evidence of (i) the reversal of the Arctic boundary currents in the Canadian Basin, from a weak cyclonic current in 2040-2049 to a strong anti-cyclonic current in 2090-2099, and (ii) increased anti-cyclonic surface ocean circulation in the eastern part of the AO, while the surface circulation in the western Arctic becomes more cyclonic. We relate the shift in the circulation to changes in the winds and reduction of sea ice cover, which modify momentum transfer from atmosphere to the ocean. Our simulation suggests a potentially complex picture of future AO change, and highlights the importance of high resolution modelling in forecasting it.

Mesoscale resolution capability of altimetry: Present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufau, Claire; Orsztynowicz, Marion; Dibarboure, Gérald; Morrow, Rosemary; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

2016-07-01

Wavenumber spectra of along-track Sea Surface Height from the most recent satellite radar altimetry missions [Jason-2, Cryosat-2, and SARAL/Altika) are used to determine the size of ocean dynamical features observable with the present altimetry constellation. A global analysis of the along-track 1-D mesoscale resolution capability of the present-day altimeter missions is proposed, based on a joint analysis of the spectral slopes in the mesoscale band and the error levels observed for horizontal wavelengths lower than 20km. The global sea level spectral slope distribution provided by Xu and Fu with Jason-1 data is revisited with more recent altimeter missions, and maps of altimeter error levels are provided and discussed for each mission. Seasonal variations of both spectral slopes and altimeter error levels are also analyzed for Jason-2. SARAL/Altika, with its lower error levels, is shown to detect smaller structures everywhere. All missions show substantial geographical and temporal variations in their mesoscale resolution capabilities, with variations depending mostly on the error level change but also on slight regional changes in the spectral slopes. In western boundary currents where the signal to noise ratio is favorable, the along-track mesoscale resolution is approximately 40 km for SARAL/AltiKa, 45 km for Cryosat-2, and 50 km for Jason-2. Finally, a prediction of the future 2-D mesoscale sea level resolution capability of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is given using a simulated error level.

Management of Local Stressors Can Improve the Resilience of Marine Canopy Algae to Global Stressors

PubMed Central

Strain, Elisabeth M. A.; van Belzen, Jim; van Dalen, Jeroen; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Airoldi, Laura

2015-01-01

Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by multiple local anthropogenic and global climatic stressors. With the difficulties in remediating global stressors, management requires alternative approaches that focus on local scales. We used manipulative experiments to test whether reducing local stressors (sediment load and nutrient concentrations) can improve the resilience of foundation species (canopy algae along temperate rocky coastlines) to future projected global climate stressors (high wave exposure, increasing sea surface temperature), which are less amenable to management actions. We focused on Fucoids (Cystoseira barbata) along the north-western Adriatic coast in the Mediterranean Sea because of their ecological relevance, sensitivity to a variety of human impacts, and declared conservation priority. At current levels of sediment and nutrients, C. barbata showed negative responses to the simulated future scenarios of high wave exposure and increased sea surface temperature. However, reducing the sediment load increased the survival of C. barbata recruits by 90.24% at high wave exposure while reducing nutrient concentrations resulted in a 20.14% increase in the survival and enhanced the growth of recruited juveniles at high temperature. We conclude that improving water quality by reducing nutrient concentrations, and particularly the sediment load, would significantly increase the resilience of C. barbata populations to projected increases in climate stressors. Developing and applying appropriate targets for specific local anthropogenic stressors could be an effective management action to halt the severe and ongoing loss of key marine habitats. PMID:25807516

Comparison of modelled runoff with observed proglacial discharge across the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A.; van As, D.; Overeem, I.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.; Fettweis, X.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hubbard, A.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet surface ablation now dominates its total mass loss contributions to sea-level rise. Despite the increasing importance of Greenland's sea-level contribution, a quantitative inter-comparison between modeled and measured melt, runoff and discharge across multiple drainage basins is conspicuously lacking. Here we investigate the accuracy of model discharge estimates from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR v3.5.2) regional climate model by comparison with in situ proglacial river discharge measurements at three West Greenland drainage basins - North River (Thule), Watson River (Kangerlussuaq), and Naujat Kuat River (Nuuk). At each target catchment, we: 1) determine optimal drainage basin delineations; 2) assess primary drivers of melt; 3) evaluate MAR at daily, 5-, 10- and 20-day time scales; and 4) identify potential sources for model-observation discrepancies. Our results reveal that MAR resolves daily discharge variability poorly in the Nuuk and Thule basins (r2 = 0.4-0.5), but does capture variability over 5-, 10-, and 20-day means (r2 > 0.7). Model agreement with river flow data, though, is reduced during periods of peak discharge, particularly for the exceptional melt and discharge events of July 2012. Daily discharge is best captured by MAR across the Watson River basin, whilst there is lower correspondence between modeled and observed discharge at the Thule and Naujat Kuat River basins. We link the main source of model error to an underestimation of cloud cover, overestimation of surface albedo, and apparent warm bias in near-surface air temperatures. For future inter-comparison, we recommend using observations from catchments that have a self-contained and well-defined drainage area and an accurate discharge record over variable years coincident with a reliable automatic weather station record. Our study highlights the importance of improving MAR modeled surface albedo, cloud cover representation, and delay functions to reduce model error and to improve prediction of Greenland's future runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

Surface water mass composition changes captured by cores of Arctic land-fast sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, I. J.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.; Van Hale, R.; Gough, A. J.; Fukamachi, Y.; Jones, J.

2016-04-01

In the Arctic, land-fast sea ice growth can be influenced by fresher water from rivers and residual summer melt. This paper examines a method to reconstruct changes in water masses using oxygen isotope measurements of sea ice cores. To determine changes in sea water isotope composition over the course of the ice growth period, the output of a sea ice thermodynamic model (driven with reanalysis data, observations of snow depth, and freeze-up dates) is used along with sea ice oxygen isotope measurements and an isotopic fractionation model. Direct measurements of sea ice growth rates are used to validate the output of the sea ice growth model. It is shown that for sea ice formed during the 2011/2012 ice growth season at Barrow, Alaska, large changes in isotopic composition of the ocean waters were captured by the sea ice isotopic composition. Salinity anomalies in the ocean were also tracked by moored instruments. These data indicate episodic advection of meteoric water, having both lower salinity and lower oxygen isotopic composition, during the winter sea ice growth season. Such advection of meteoric water during winter is surprising, as no surface meltwater and no local river discharge should be occurring at this time of year in that area. How accurately changes in water masses as indicated by oxygen isotope composition can be reconstructed using oxygen isotope analysis of sea ice cores is addressed, along with methods/strategies that could be used to further optimize the results. The method described will be useful for winter detection of meteoric water presence in Arctic fast ice regions, which is important for climate studies in a rapidly changing Arctic. Land-fast sea ice effective fractionation coefficients were derived, with a range of +1.82‰ to +2.52‰. Those derived effective fractionation coefficients will be useful for future water mass component proportion calculations. In particular, the equations given can be used to inform choices made when engaging in end member determination for working out the component proportions of water masses.

Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

2018-04-01

A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

Fully reprocessed ERS-1 altimeter data from 1992 to 1995: Feasibility of the detection of long term sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anzenhofer, M.; Gruber, T.

1998-04-01

Global mean sea level observations are necessary to answer the urgent questions about climate changes and their impact on socio-economy. At GeoForschungsZentrum/Geman Processing and Archiving Facility ERS altimeter data is used to systematically generate geophysical products such as sea surface topography, high-resolution geoid and short- and long-period sea surface height models. On the basis of this experience, fully reprocessed ERS-1 altimeter data is used to generated a time series of monthly sea surface height models from April 1992 to April 1995. The reprocessing consists of improved satellite ephemerides, merging of Grenoble tidal model, and application of range corrections due to timing errors. With the new data set the TOPEX/POSEIDON prelaunch accuracy requirements are fulfilled. The 3-year time series is taken to estimate the rate of change of global mean sea level. A careful treatment of seasonal effects is considered. A masking of continents, sea ice, and suspect sea surface heights is chosen that is common for all sea surface height models. The obtained rate of change is compared to external results from tide gauge records and TOPEX/POSEIDON data. The relation of sea level changes and sea surface temperature variations is examined by means of global monthly sea surface temperature maps. Both global wind speed and wave height maps are investigated and correlated with sea surface heights and sea surface temperatures in order to find other indicators of climate variations. The obtained rate of changes of the various global maps is compared to an atmospheric CO2 anomaly record, which is highly correlated to El Niño events. The relatively short period of 3 years, however, does not allow definite conclusions with respect to possible long-term climate changes.

Recent Rise in West Greenland Surface Melt and Firn Density Driven by North Atlantic SSTs and Blocking Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Graeter, K.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Lewis, G.; Birkel, S. D.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since at least the early 2000s, mostly due to enhanced surface melt. Approximately 40% of the surface melt currently generated on the GrIS percolates into the snow/firn and refreezes, where it has no immediate impact on GrIS mass balance or sea-level rise. However, in situ observations of surface melt are sparse, and thus it remains unclear how melt water percolation and refreezing are modifying the GrIS percolation zone under recent warming. In addition, understanding the climatic drivers behind the recent increase in melt is critical for accurately predicting future GrIS surface melt rates and contributions to sea-level rise. Here we show that there have been significant increases in melt refreeze and firn density over the past 30-50 years along a 250 km-long region of the Western Greenland percolation zone (2137 - 2218 m elevation). We collected seven shallow firn cores as part of the 2016 Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS), analyzed each for melt layer stratigraphy and density, and developed timescales for each based on annual layer counting of seasonal chemical oscillations (e.g. δ18O, dust, and biogenic sulfur). The cores indicate that refrozen melt layers have increased 2- to 9-fold since 1970, with statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear trends at the five southernmost core sites. Comparisons of two GreenTrACS cores to co-located PARCA cores collected in 1998 reveal significant (p < 0.05) increases in density averaged over the top 10 m of firn ranging from 32-42 kg/m3. Recent density increases closely correspond with the locations of refrozen melt water. We use output from the MARv3.7 Regional Climate Model to assess climatic forcing of surface melt at GreenTrACS sites, and find significant summer-to-summer correlations between melt generation and the frequency of blocking high pressure centers over Greenland (represented by the Greenland Blocking Index; GBI), and with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). Thus, future surface melt rates in Western Greenland depend on the complex evolution of the GBI and AMO under anthropogenic forcing, both of which remain poorly constrained in 21st century model projections.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Surface-roughness considerations for atmospheric correction of ocean color sensors. II: Error in the retrieved water-leaving radiance.

PubMed

Gordon, H R; Wang, M

1992-07-20

In the algorithm for the atmospheric correction of coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) imagery, it is assumed that the sea surface is flat. Simulations are carried out to assess the error incurred when the CZCS-type algorithm is applied to a realistic ocean in which the surface is roughened by the wind. In situations where there is no direct Sun glitter (either a large solar zenith angle or the sensor tilted away from the specular image of the Sun), the following conclusions appear justified: (1) the error induced by ignoring the surface roughness is less, similar1 CZCS digital count for wind speeds up to approximately 17 m/s, and therefore can be ignored for this sensor; (2) the roughness-induced error is much more strongly dependent on the wind speed than on the wave shadowing, suggesting that surface effects can be adequately dealt with without precise knowledge of the shadowing; and (3) the error induced by ignoring the Rayleigh-aerosol interaction is usually larger than that caused by ignoring the surface roughness, suggesting that in refining algorithms for future sensors more effort should be placed on dealing with the Rayleigh-aerosol interaction than on the roughness of the sea surface.

Are Surface Waters Around Greenland Getting Saltier in a Warming Climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinogradova, N. T.; Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.; Little, C. M.

2016-02-01

During the past two decades, most surface waters around Greenland ice sheet and in the Nordic Seas became significantly saltier. Given the fact that these waters feed the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, an increase in surface salinity, which can exceed 0.2 psu in places, might have an important impact on the global ocean circulation and on future projections of the climate state. Surface salinification may seem counter-intuitive to the reported long-term increase in freshwater supply to the region from river discharge and ice melting, sparking debates about whether the freshening of the subpolar gyre has ceased, and whether the recent salinification, if continued, will be able to forestall the projected slowdown of the overturning circulation. Here we assess what controls contemporary salinity changes by examining various terms of the salinity budget, including the dilution effect due to air-sea fluxes of freshwater, fluxes of salt due to sea ice formation/melting, and ocean fluxes of salinity associated with advective and diffusive processes. We use an ocean state estimate produced by the ECCO consortium to consider the budgets over the period 1992-2011. ECCO estimates produce salinity fields close to the observations and, crucial for our purposes, permit closed budget diagnostics of salinity and respective fluxes. The budgets are formulated within the entire water column in order to examine three-dimensional structure of freshwater storage and establish a link between the surface and upper-ocean change in near-Greenland waters. Over the past two decades, patterns of change are evident in all budget terms, with ocean fluxes either offsetting or enhancing surface forcing, including the effects of sea ice dynamics. Interpretation is provided within the context of a changing climate, including intensification of the hydrological cycle and weakening of ocean transports and overturning, as well as natural decadal-to-interdacadal variability present in the system.

Circulation and oxygen cycling in the Mediterranean Sea: Sensitivity to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powley, Helen R.; Krom, Michael D.; Van Cappellen, Philippe

2016-11-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and decrease precipitation in the Mediterranean Sea (MS) basin, causing substantial changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) of both the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMS) and Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The exact nature of future circulation changes remains highly uncertain, however, with forecasts varying from a weakening to a strengthening of the THC. Here we assess the sensitivity of dissolved oxygen (O2) distributions in the WMS and EMS to THC changes using a mass balance model, which represents the exchanges of O2 between surface, intermediate, and deep water reservoirs, and through the Straits of Sicily and Gibraltar. Perturbations spanning the ranges in O2 solubility, aerobic respiration kinetics, and THC changes projected for the year 2100 are imposed to the O2 model. In all scenarios tested, the entire MS remains fully oxygenated after 100 years; depending on the THC regime, average deep water O2 concentrations fall in the ranges 151-205 and 160-219 µM in the WMS and EMS, respectively. On longer timescales (>1000 years), the scenario with the largest (>74%) decline in deep water formation rate leads to deep water hypoxia in the EMS but, even then, the WMS deep water remains oxygenated. In addition, a weakening of THC may result in a negative feedback on O2 consumption as supply of labile dissolved organic carbon to deep water decreases. Thus, it appears unlikely that climate-driven changes in THC will cause severe O2 depletion of the deep water masses of the MS in the foreseeable future.

Future Earth Coasts: The Mississippi and Yangtze Rivers as Examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Elia, C.; Xu, K.; Chen, Z.; Day, J.; Le Tissier, M.

2016-02-01

Deltas and estuaries are productive and fertile links between the land and the sea. Deltas occupy only about 5% of the Earth's surface but sustain over a half billion people all around the world. Many river deltas are endangered because of extensive dam and levee construction, declining sediment supply, groundwater withdrawal, relative sea level rise and severe coastal erosion, leading to a variety of threats to natural, economic and social systems. About 630 million people now live at an elevation of 10 m or less above mean sea level, and maintaining sustainable land with a rising sea will be a challenging problem for many major deltaic coasts and cities in the next century. Stemming from 20 years of LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone), Future Earth Coasts is a new global initiative that seeks to enable the scientific and social scientific communities to build knowledge through collaborative processes to better understand and address the profound and urgent changes occurring in vulnerable coastal zones. The topics of this comparative study are the Mississippi and Yangtze (Changjiang) Rivers, the largest in the United States and China, respectively. We use these two rivers as examples to evaluate current conditions and catalyze future discussion. The Mississippi and Yangtze both have had long-term observations of physical and biological processes that affect human activities, making it possible to quantify both natural and anthropogenic impacts. We also consider the limits to concept of sustainability for the Earth's biosphere and human civilization, and emphasize biophysical constraints and demographic challenges.

Local Effects of Ice Floes on Skin Sea Surface Temperature in the Marginal Ice Zone from UAVs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, C. J.; Brown, S.; Emery, W. J.; Adler, J.; Wick, G. A.; Steele, M.; Palo, S. E.; Walker, G.; Maslanik, J. A.

2013-12-01

Recent years have seen extreme changes in the Arctic. Particularly striking are changes within the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, and especially in the seas north of the Alaskan coast. These areas have experienced record warming, reduced sea ice extent, and loss of ice in areas that had been ice-covered throughout human memory. Even the oldest and thickest ice types have failed to survive through the summer melt period in areas such as the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin, and fundamental changes in ocean conditions such as earlier phytoplankton blooms may be underway. Marginal ice zones (MIZ), or areas where the "ice-albedo feedback" driven by solar warming is highest and ice melt is extensive, may provide insights into the extent of these changes. Airborne remote sensing, in particular InfraRed (IR), offers a unique opportunity to observe physical processes at sea-ice margins. It permits monitoring the ice extent and coverage, as well as the ice and ocean temperature variability. It can also be used for derivation of surface flow field allowing investigation of turbulence and mixing at the ice-ocean interface. Here, we present measurements of visible and IR imagery of melting ice floes in the marginal ice zone north of Oliktok Point AK in the Beaufort Sea made during the Marginal Ice Zone Ocean and Ice Observations and Processes EXperiment (MIZOPEX) in July-August 2013. The visible and IR imagery were taken from the unmanned airborne vehicle (UAV) ScanEagle. The visible imagery clearly defines the scale of the ice floes. The IR imagery show distinct cooling of the skin sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a intricate circulation and mixing pattern that depends on the surface current, wind speed, and near-surface vertical temperature/salinity structure. Individual ice floes develop turbulent wakes as they drift and cause transient mixing of an influx of colder surface (fresh) melt water. The upstream side of the ice floe shows the coldest skin SST, and downstream the skin SST is mixed within the turbulent wake over 10s of meters. We compare the structure of circulation and mixing of the influx of cold skin SST driven by surface currents and wind. In-situ temperature measurements provide the context for the vertical structure of the mixing and its impact on the skin SST. Furthermore, comparisons to satellite-derived sea surface temperature of the region are presented. The accuracy of satellite derived SST products and how well the observed skin SSTs represent ocean bulk temperatures in polar regions is not well understood, due in part to lack of observations. Estimated error in the polar seas is relatively high at up to 0.4 deg. C compared to less than 0.2 deg. C for other areas. The goal of these and future analyses of the MIZOPEX data set is to elucidate a basic question that is significant for the entire Earth system. Have these regions passed a tipping point, such that they are now essentially acting as sub-Arctic seas where ice disappears in summer, or instead whether the changes are transient, with the potential for the ice pack to recover?

Key roles of sea ice in inducing contrasting modes of glacial AMOC and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherriff-Tadano, S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2017-12-01

Gaining a better understanding of glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is important to interpret the glacial climate changes such as the Heinrich event. Recent studies suggest that changes in sea ice over the North Atlantic largely affect the surface wind. Since changes in surface wind have a large impact on the AMOC, this implies a role of sea ice in modifying the AMOC though surface wind. However, the impact of sea ice on the surface winds and the impact of changes in the winds on the AMOC remain unclear. In this study, we first assess the impact of sea ice expansion on the winds. We then explore whether the changes in winds play a role in modifying the AMOC and climate. For this purpose, results from MIROC4m are analyzed (Kawamura et al. 2017). To clarify the impact of changes in sea ice on the surface wind, sensitivity experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the AGCM experiments, we modify the sea ice to extract the impact of sea ice on the winds. Partial decouple experiments are conducted with the coupled model MIROC4m, which we modify the surface winds to assess the impact of changes in the surface wind due to sea ice expansion on the AMOC. Results show that expansion of sea ice substantially weakens the surface wind over the northern North Atlantic. AGCM experiments show that a drastic decrease in surface temperature duo to a suppression of sensible heat flux plays a dominant role in weakening the surface winds through increasing the static stability of the air column near the surface. Partial decouple experiments with MIROC4m show that the weakening of the surface wind due to the expansion of sea ice plays an important role in maintaining the weak AMOC. Thus, these experiments show that the weakening of the surface winds due to sea ice expansion plays a role in stabilizing the AMOC.

In Situ Global Sea Surface Salinity and Variability from the NCEI Global Thermosalinograph Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Boyer, T.; Zhang, H. M.

2017-12-01

Sea surface salinity (SSS) plays an important role in the global ocean circulations. The variations of sea surface salinity are key indicators of changes in air-sea water fluxes. Using nearly 30 years of in situ measurements of sea surface salinity from thermosalinographs, we will evaluate the variations of the sea surface salinity in the global ocean. The sea surface salinity data used are from our newly-developed NCEI Global Thermosalinograph Database - NCEI-TSG. This database provides a comprehensive set of quality-controlled in-situ sea-surface salinity and temperature measurements collected from over 340 vessels during the period 1989 to the present. The NCEI-TSG is the world's most complete TSG dataset, containing all data from the different TSG data assembly centers, e.g. COAPS (SAMOS), IODE (GOSUD) and AOML, with more historical data from NCEI's archive to be added. Using this unique dataset, we will investigate the spatial variations of the global SSS and its variability. Annual and interannual variability will also be studied at selected regions.

Simulation of laser beam reflection at the sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwenger, Frédéric; Repasi, Endre

2011-05-01

A 3D simulation of the reflection of a Gaussian shaped laser beam on the dynamic sea surface is presented. The simulation is suitable for both the calculation of images of SWIR (short wave infrared) imaging sensor and for determination of total detected power of reflected laser light for a bistatic configuration of laser source and receiver at different atmospheric conditions. Our computer simulation comprises the 3D simulation of a maritime scene (open sea/clear sky) and the simulation of laser light reflected at the sea surface. The basic sea surface geometry is modeled by a composition of smooth wind driven gravity waves. The propagation model for water waves is applied for sea surface animation. To predict the view of a camera in the spectral band SWIR the sea surface radiance must be calculated. This is done by considering the emitted sea surface radiance and the reflected sky radiance, calculated by MODTRAN. Additionally, the radiances of laser light specularly reflected at the wind-roughened sea surface are modeled in the SWIR band considering an analytical statistical sea surface BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function). This BRDF model considers the statistical slope statistics of waves and accounts for slope-shadowing of waves that especially occurs at flat incident angles of the laser beam and near horizontal detection angles of reflected irradiance at rough seas. Simulation results are presented showing the variation of the detected laser power dependent on the geometric configuration of laser, sensor and wind characteristics.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-01-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Altimetry, Orbits and Tides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colombo, O. L.

1984-01-01

The nature of the orbit error and its effect on the sea surface heights calculated with satellite altimetry are explained. The elementary concepts of celestial mechanics required to follow a general discussion of the problem are included. Consideration of errors in the orbits of satellites with precisely repeating ground tracks (SEASAT, TOPEX, ERS-1, POSEIDON, amongst past and future altimeter satellites) are detailed. The theoretical conclusions are illustrated with the numerical results of computer simulations. The nature of the errors in this type of orbits is such that this error can be filtered out by using height differences along repeating (overlapping) passes. This makes them particularly valuable for the study and monitoring of changes in the sea surface, such as tides. Elements of tidal theory, showing how these principles can be combined with those pertinent to the orbit error to make direct maps of the tides using altimetry are presented.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

The Influence of Antenna Pattern on Faraday Rotation in Remote Sensing at L-band

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeVine, David M.; Jacob, S. Daniel

2007-01-01

Faraday rotation is a change in the polarization vector of electromagnetic radiation that occurs as the waves propagate from the Earth surface through the ionosphere to a spaceborne sensor. This change can cause errors in monitoring parameters at the surface such as soil moisture and sea surface salinity and it is an important consideration for radiometers on future missions in space such as NASA's Aquarius mission and ESA's SMOS mission. Two prominent strategies for compensating for Faraday rotation are using a sum of the signal at two polarizations and using the correlation between the signals at the two polarizations. These strategies work for an idealized antenna. This paper evaluates the strategies in the context of realistic antennas such as will be built for the Aquarius radiometer. Realistic antennas will make small differences that need to be included in planning for retrieval algorithms in future missions.

Isolating the Liquid Cloud Response to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A. L.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Yettella, V.

2018-01-01

While the radiative influence of clouds on Arctic sea ice is known, the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic clouds is challenging to detect, separate from atmospheric circulation, and attribute to human activities. Providing observational constraints on the two-way relationship between sea ice cover and Arctic clouds is important for predicting the rate of future sea ice loss. Here we use 8 years of CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spaceborne lidar observations from 2008 to 2015 to analyze Arctic cloud profiles over sea ice and over open water. Using a novel surface mask to restrict our analysis to where sea ice concentration varies, we isolate the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic Ocean clouds. The study focuses on clouds containing liquid water because liquid-containing clouds are the most important cloud type for radiative fluxes and therefore for sea ice melt and growth. Summer is the only season with no observed cloud response to sea ice cover variability: liquid cloud profiles are nearly identical over sea ice and over open water. These results suggest that shortwave summer cloud feedbacks do not slow long-term summer sea ice loss. In contrast, more liquid clouds are observed over open water than over sea ice in the winter, spring, and fall in the 8 year mean and in each individual year. Observed fall sea ice loss cannot be explained by natural variability alone, which suggests that observed increases in fall Arctic cloud cover over newly open water are linked to human activities.

Increasing the highest storm surge in Busan harbor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Sang Myeong; Moon, Il-Ju; Kwon, Suk Jae

2017-04-01

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change in coastal regions is sea level rise and storm surges. Busan in particular, the fifth largest container handling port in the world, has suffered from serious storm surges and experienced a remarkable mean sea level (MSL) rise. This study investigates a long-term variation of annual maximum surge height (AMSH) using sea level data observed in Busan over 53 years (1962 2014). The decomposition of astronomical tides and surge components shows that the AMSH has increased 18 cm over 53 years (i.e., 3.5 mm/year), which is much larger than the MSL trend (2.5 mm/year) in Busan. This significant increase in AMSH is mostly explained by the increased intensity of landfall typhoons over the Korean peninsula (KP), which is associated with the increase of sea surface temperature and the decrease of vertical wind shear at mid-latitudes of the western North Pacific. In a projected future warming environment, the combination of an increasing MSL and AMSH will accelerate the occurrence of record-breaking extreme sea levels, which will be a potential threat in Busan harbor.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Influence of the North Atlantic oceanograghic and climatic parameters on the Spanish European Eel population recruitment: relationships in the past and for a future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Díaz, Estíbaliz; Korta, María; Chust, Guillem

2016-04-01

The status of the European eel population is critical.; the annual recruitment of glass eel to European waters in 2015 is 1.2% of the 1960-1979 level in the 'North Sea' area, and 8.4% in the rest of Europe (ICES 2015) . There are a number of anthropogenic impacts potentially affecting eel population including commercial exploitation, habitat loss, dam and weir construction, hydropower, pumping stations and surface water abstractions. Furthermore, the first eel stages and larval migration and marine survival are heavily influenced by oceanic and climatic factors since the species breeds in the Sargasso Sea and migrates to the continental shelf of the Atlantic coast of Europe and North Africa. Therefore, the study of the relations between recruitment and oceanic conditions may allow to study the potential effect of climatic change on the future eel recruitment and therefore stock. In the present study, the relation between glass eel recruitment and oceanic and climatic factors has been studied. Historic glass eel catches data beginning in the 50s from two Mediterranean and two Atlantic estuaries have been used as a proxy of recruitment. The relation of catches with the main oceanographic and climatic factors identified in the literature was established using an ocean reanalysis, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and determined which variables are significantly related to the number of catches. The analysis shows significant relationships between catches and oceanic (Surface Downward Stress, Sea Water Temperature and Sea Water Velocity) and atmospheric (NAO Index, AMO Index) variables. Subsequently, we applied the results of three climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5), associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two simulations of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), both associated with the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, for possible future influences on the eel. This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment.

First results from the NEMO Test Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccobene, Giorgio; NEMO Collaboration

2007-03-01

The NEMO (NEutrino Mediterranean Observatory) Collaboration is constructing, 25 km E from Catania (Sicily) at 2000 m depth, an underwater test site to perform long-term tests of prototypes and new technologies for an underwater high energy neutrino detector in the Mediterranean Sea. In this framework the collaboration deployed and operated an experimental apparatus for on-line monitoring of deep-sea noise. The station is equipped with 4 hydrophones operational in the range 30 Hz - 40 kHz. This interval of frequencies matches the range suitable for acoustic detection of high energy neutrino-induced showers in water. Hydrophone signals are digitized underwater at 96 kHz sampling frequency and 24 bits resolution. A custom software was developed to record data on high resolution 4-channels PCM .le. Data are used to model underwater acoustic noise as a function of frequency and time, a mandatory parametre for future acoustic neutrino detectors. Results indicate that the average noise in the site is compatible with noise produced in condition of sea surface agitation (sea state.)

Sun-stirred Kraken Mare: Circulation in Titan's seas induced by solar heating and methane precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, Tetsuya; Lorenz, Ralph D.

2016-05-01

Density-driven circulation in Titan's seas forced by solar heating and methane evaporation/precipitation is simulated by an ocean circulation model. If the sea is transparent to sunlight, solar heating can induce anti-clockwise gyres near the sea surface and clockwise gyres near the sea bottom. The gyres are in geostrophic balance between the radially symmetric pressure gradient force and Coriolis force. If instead the sea is turbid and most sunlight is absorbed near the sea surface, the sea gets stratified in warm seasons and the circulation remains weak. Precipitation causes compositional stratification of the sea to an extent that the sea surface temperature can be lower than the sea interior temperature without causing a convective overturning. Non-uniform precipitation can also generate a latitudinal gradient in the methane mole fraction and density, which drives a meridional overturning with equatorward currents near the sea surface and poleward currents near the sea bottom. However, gyres are more ubiquitous than meridional overturning.

The Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Front on Stratus-Sea Fog over the Yellow and East China Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Li, M.; Liu, F.

2013-12-01

A stratus-sea fog event occurred on 3 June 2011 over the Yellow and East China Seas (as shown in figure) is investigated observationally and numerically. Emphasis is put on the influences of the sea surface temperature front (SSTF) and of the synoptic circulations on the transition of stratus to sea fog. The southerly winds from a synoptic high pressure transport water vapor from the East China Sea to the Yellow Sea, while the subsidence induced by the high contributes to the formation of the temperature inversion on the top of the stratus or stratocumulus that appears mainly over the warm flank of a sea surface temperature front in the East China Sea. Forced by the SSTF, there is a secondary cell within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with a sinking branch on the cold flank and a rising one on the warm flank of the SSTF. This sinking branch, in phase with the synoptic subsidence, forces the stratus or stratocumulus to lower in the elevation getting close to the sea surface as these clouds move northward driven by the southerly winds. The cloud droplets can either reach to the sea surface directly or evaporate into water vapor that may condense again when coming close to the cold sea surface to form fog. In this later case, the stratus and fog may separate. The cooling effect of cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic heating induced by the subsidence and thus helps the transition of stratus to sea fog in the southern Yellow Sea. By smoothing the SSTF in the numerical experiment, the secondary cell weakens and the sea fog patches shrink obviously over the cold flank of the SSTF though the synoptic subsidence and moist advection still exist. A conceptual model is suggested for the transition of stratus to sea fog in the Yellow and East China Seas, which is helpful for the forecast of sea fog over these areas. The satellite visible image of the stratus-fog event. The fog appears in the Yellow Sea and the stratocumulus in the East China Sea.

Effects of Sea-Surface Waves and Ocean Spray on Air-Sea Momentum Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ting; Song, Jinbao

2018-04-01

The effects of sea-surface waves and ocean spray on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at different wind speeds and wave ages were investigated. An MABL model was developed that introduces a wave-induced component and spray force to the total surface stress. The theoretical model solution was determined assuming the eddy viscosity coefficient varied linearly with height above the sea surface. The wave-induced component was evaluated using a directional wave spectrum and growth rate. Spray force was described using interactions between ocean-spray droplets and wind-velocity shear. Wind profiles and sea-surface drag coefficients were calculated for low to high wind speeds for wind-generated sea at different wave ages to examine surface-wave and ocean-spray effects on MABL momentum distribution. The theoretical solutions were compared with model solutions neglecting wave-induced stress and/or spray stress. Surface waves strongly affected near-surface wind profiles and sea-surface drag coefficients at low to moderate wind speeds. Drag coefficients and near-surface wind speeds were lower for young than for old waves. At high wind speeds, ocean-spray droplets produced by wind-tearing breaking-wave crests affected the MABL strongly in comparison with surface waves, implying that wave age affects the MABL only negligibly. Low drag coefficients at high wind caused by ocean-spray production increased turbulent stress in the sea-spray generation layer, accelerating near-sea-surface wind. Comparing the analytical drag coefficient values with laboratory measurements and field observations indicated that surface waves and ocean spray significantly affect the MABL at different wind speeds and wave ages.

Hindcasting and forecasting of climatology for Gilbert Bay, Labrador: A marine protected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara J.

Gilbert Bay is a marine protected area (MPA) on the southeastern coast of Labrador, Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. Future climate change in the region is expected to have an impact on the coastal marine environment and local communities in the future. This thesis presents results from a hindcast and forecasts study of physical oceanographic conditions for Gilbert Bay. The first section of this thesis examines the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. The seasonal and interannual variability of the near surface atmospheric parameters are described. Seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a physical ocean model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). The results of the hindcast model suggest that the atmospheric interannual variability of the Gilbert Bay region is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A warming trend observed in the subpolar North Atlantic was influenced by the local climate of coastal Labrador during the recent decade of 1995-2005. The second section of this thesis presents a model forecast of the impact of climate change on the physical conditions within Gilbert Bay over the next century. Climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment and the US Climate Change Science Program Project (US CCSP), specifically the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), were used. Atmospheric parameters and related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter for three SRES are simulated with the GOTM, and are then compared to the hindcast study results. The results suggest that the water column during future winters will become warmer in the second half of the 21st century. In the summer the atmosphere will be warmer and more humid. Cloudiness and precipitation are expected to increase. This will have an impact on the vertical stratification of the water column. The surface mixed layer is expected to become warmer, fresher and much shallower than seen in the past. The stratification below the seasonal thermocline will weaken and vertical mixing will intensify. A significant change in surface sea-ice coverage is also suggested by the forecast. Continuing reduction in sea-ice formation during the winter months as highlighted by the hindcast study is expected to affect living conditions of the neighbouring coastal communities around the bay, specifically by increasing the danger of travelling across the bay. A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem may be favourable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of travelling across the bay by snowmobile.

Sensitivity of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents Sea in autumn to the winter temperature variability over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, K. H.; Chang, E. C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments by utilizing the Global/Regional Integrated Model system with different conditions of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents (KB) Sea in autumn, which can affect winter temperature variability over East Asia. Prescribed sea ice conditions are 1) climatological autumn sea ice concentration obtained from 1982 to 2016, 2) reduced autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of the climatology, and 3) increased autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of climatology. Differently prescribed sea ice concentration changes surface albedo, which affects surface heat fluxes and near-surface air temperature. The reduced (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea increases (decreases) near-surface air temperature that leads the lower (higher) sea level pressure in autumn. These patterns are maintained from autumn to winter season. Furthermore, it is shown that the different sea ice concentration over the KB sea has remote effects on the sea level pressure patterns over the East Asian region. The lower (higher) sea level pressure over the KB sea by the locally decreased (increased) ice concentration is related to the higher (lower) pressure pattern over the Siberian region, which induces strengthened (weakened) cold advection over the East Asian region. From these sensitivity experiments it is clarified that the decreased (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea in autumn can lead the colder (warmer) surface air temperature over East Asia in winter.

The mean sea surface height and geoid along the Geosat subtrack from Bermuda to Cape Cod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Kathryn A.; Joyce, Terrence M.; Schubert, David M.; Caruso, Michael J.

1991-07-01

Measurements of near-surface velocity and concurrent sea level along an ascending Geosat subtrack were used to estimate the mean sea surface height and the Earth's gravitational geoid. Velocity measurements were made on three traverses of a Geosat subtrack within 10 days, using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). A small bias in the ADCP velocity was removed by considering a mass balance for two pairs of triangles for which expendable bathythermograph measurements were also made. Because of the large curvature of the Gulf Stream, the gradient wind balance was used to estimate the cross-track component of geostrophic velocity from the ADCP vectors; this component was then integrated to obtain the sea surface height profile. The mean sea surface height was estimated as the difference between the instantaneous sea surface height from ADCP and the Geosat residual sea level, with mesoscale errors reduced by low-pass filtering. The error estimates were divided into a bias, tilt, and mesoscale residual; the bias was ignored because profiles were only determined within a constant of integration. The calculated mean sea surface height estimate agreed with an independent estimate of the mean sea surface height from Geosat, obtained by modeling the Gulf Stream as a Gaussian jet, within the expected errors in the estimates: the tilt error was 0.10 m, and the mesoscale error was 0.044 m. To minimize mesoscale errors in the estimate, the alongtrack geoid estimate was computed as the difference between the mean sea level from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission and an estimate of the mean sea surface height, rather than as the difference between instantaneous profiles of sea level and sea surface height. In the critical region near the Gulf Stream the estimated error reduction using this method was about 0.07 m. Differences between the geoid estimate and a gravimetric geoid were not within the expected errors: the rms mesoscale difference was 0.24 m rms.

Naval Sea Systems Command On Watch 2010

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

surface targets, such as zodiacs and fast patrol boats found in the littoral environment. As for future capabilities and goals for the program, An...Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour...per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing

Enhancing the Arctic Mean Sea Surface and Mean Dynamic Topography with CryoSat-2 Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenseng, Lars; Andersen, Ole B.; Knudsen, Per

2014-05-01

A reliable mean sea surface (MSS) is essential to derive a good mean dynamic topography (MDT) and for the estimation of short and long-term changes in the sea surface. The lack of satellite radar altimetry observations above 82 degrees latitude means that existing mean sea surface models have been unreliable in the Arctic Ocean. We here present the latest DTU mean sea surface and mean dynamic topography models that includes CryoSat-2 data to improve the reliability in the Arctic Ocean. In an attempt to extrapolate across the gap above 82 degrees latitude the previously models included ICESat data, gravimetrical geoids, ocean circulation models and various combinations hereof. Unfortunately cloud cover and the short periods of operation has a negative effect on the number of ICESat sea surface observations. DTU13MSS and DTU13MDT are the new generation of state of the art global high-resolution models that includes CryoSat-2 data to extend the satellite radar altimetry coverage up to 88 degrees latitude. Furthermore the SAR and SARin capability of CryoSat-2 dramatically increases the amount of useable sea surface returns in sea-ice covered areas compared to conventional radar altimeters like ENVISAT and ERS-1/2. With the inclusion of CryoSat-2 data the new mean sea surface is improved by more than 20 cm above 82 degrees latitude compared with the previous generation of mean sea surfaces.

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; ...

2015-03-30

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAO) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In the future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most regions, the magnitude of decrease over northwestern U.S. is much smaller than the surrounding regions. We identified statistically significant increases in sea level pressure during CAO events centering over Yukon, Alaska, and Gulf of Alaska that advects continental cold air to northwestern U.S., leading to blocking and CAO events. Changes in large scale circulationmore » contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure anomaly conducive to CAO in northwestern U.S. in the future. High resolution regional simulations revealed potential contributions of increased existing snowpack to increased CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern U.S., and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects, despite winter mean snow water equivalent decreases in the future. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern U.S., the top 5 most extreme CAO events may still occur in the future, and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts in that region.« less

Polarimetric Doppler spectrum of backscattered echoes from nonlinear sea surface damped by natural slicks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pengju; Guo, Lixin

2016-11-01

Based on the Lombardini et al. model that can predict the hydrodynamic damping of rough sea surfaces in the presence of monomolecular slicks and the "choppy wave" model (CWM) that can describe the nonlinear interactions between ocean waves, the modeling of time-varying nonlinear sea surfaces damped by natural or organic sea slicks is presented in this paper. The polarimetric scattering model of second-order small-slope approximation (SSA-II) with tapered wave incidence is utilized for evaluating co- and cross-polarized backscattered echoes from clean and contaminated CWM nonlinear sea surfaces. The influence of natural sea slicks on Doppler shift and spectral bandwidth of radar sea echoes is investigated in detail by comparing the polarimetric Doppler spectra of contaminated sea surfaces with those of clean sea surfaces. A narrowing of Doppler spectra in the presence of oil slicks is observed for both co- and cross-polarization, which is qualitatively consistent with wave-tank measurements. Simulation results also show that the Doppler shifts in slicks can increase or decrease, depending on incidence angles and polarizations.

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future. This would allow them to plan ahead to reduce the level of risk to homes, industry, and infrastructure San Francisco International Airport will be most likely be flooded in the next 30 years. Blue lines indicate current Mean High Water Levels. Yellow lines indicate the Mean High Water level combined with flood levels for 2030. Green, 2050, and Red lines, 2100

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lubin, Daniel; Bromwich, David H; Vogelmann, Andrew M

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) is the most technologically advanced atmospheric and climate science campaign yet fielded in Antarctica. AWARE was motivated be recent concern about the impact of cryospheric mass loss on global sea level rise. Specifically, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is now the second largest contributor to rising sea level, after the Greenland Ice Sheet. As steadily warming ocean water erodes the grounding lines of WAIS components where they meet the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the retreating grounding lines moving inland and downslope on the underlyingmore » terrain imply mechanical instability of the entire WAIS. There is evidence that this point of instability may have already been reached, perhaps signifying more rapid loss of WAIS ice mass. At the same time, the mechanical support provided by adjacent ice shelves, and also the fundamental stability of exposed ice cliffs at the ice sheet grounding lines, will be adversely impacted by a warming atmosphere that causes more frequent episodes of surface melting. The surface meltwater damages the ice shelves and ice cliffs through hydrofracturing. With the increasing concern regarding these rapid cryospheric changes, AWARE was motivated by the need to (a) diagnose the surface energy balance in West Antarctica as related to both summer season climatology and potential surface melting, and (b) improve global climate model (GCM) performance over Antarctica, such that future cryospheric projections can be more reliable.« less

Arctic sea-ice variability and its implication to the path of pollutants under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Morales, K.; Gerdes, R.; Riemann-Campe, K.; Köberle, C.; Losch, M.

2012-04-01

The increasing concentration of pollutants from anthropogenic origin in the Arctic atmosphere, water, sediments and biota has been evident during the last decade. The sea-ice is an important vehicle for pollutants in the Arctic Ocean. Pollutants are taken up by precipitation and dry atmospheric deposition over the snow and ice cover during winter and released to the ocean during melting. Recent changes in the sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean affect the fresh water balance and the oceanic circulation, and with it, the fate of pollutants in the system. The Arctic Ocean is characterized by complex dynamics and strong stratification. Thus, to evaluate the current and future changes in the Arctic circulation high-resolution models are needed. As part of the EU FP7 project ArcRisk (under the scope of the IPY), we use a high resolution regional sea-ice-ocean coupled model covering the Arctic Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - circulation model (MITgcm). Under realistic atmospheric forcing we obtain hindcast results of circulation patterns for the period 1990 - 2010 for validation of the model. We evaluate possible consequences on the pathways and transport of contaminants by downscaling future climate scenario runs available in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) for the following fifty years. Particular interest is set in the Barents Sea. In this shallow region strong river runoff, sea-ice delivered from the interior of the Arctic Ocean and warm waters from the North Atlantic current are main sources of contaminants. Under a changing climate, a higher input of contaminants delivered to surface waters is expected, remaining in the interior of the Arctic Ocean in a strongly stratified water column remaining.

Detailed real-time infrared radiation simulation applied to the sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuemin; Wu, Limin; Long, Liang; Zhang, Lisha

2018-01-01

In this paper, the infrared radiation characteristics of sea background have been studied. First, MODTRAN4.0 was used to calculate the transmittance of mid-infrared and far-infrared, and the solar spectral irradiance, the atmospheric and sea surface radiation. Secondly, according to the JONSWAP sea spectrum model, the different sea conditions grid model based on gravity wave theory was generated. The spectral scattering of the sun and the atmospheric background radiation was studied. The total infrared radiation of the sea surface was calculated. Finally, the infrared radiation of a piece of sea surface was mapped to each pixel of the detector, and the infrared radiation is simulated. The conclusion is that solar radiance has a great influence on the infrared radiance. When the detector angle is close to the sun's height angle, there will be bright spots on the sea surface.

Polarimetric infrared imaging simulation of a synthetic sea surface with Mie scattering.

PubMed

He, Si; Wang, Xia; Xia, Runqiu; Jin, Weiqi; Liang, Jian'an

2018-03-01

A novel method to simulate the polarimetric infrared imaging of a synthetic sea surface with atmospheric Mie scattering effects is presented. The infrared emission, multiple reflections, and infrared polarization of the sea surface and the Mie scattering of aerosols are all included for the first time. At first, a new approach to retrieving the radiative characteristics of a wind-roughened sea surface is introduced. A two-scale method of sea surface realization and the inverse ray tracing of light transfer calculation are combined and executed simultaneously, decreasing the consumption of time and memory dramatically. Then the scattering process that the infrared light emits from the sea surface and propagates in the aerosol particles is simulated with a polarized light Monte Carlo model. Transformations of the polarization state of the light are calculated with the Mie theory. Finally, the polarimetric infrared images of the sea surface of different environmental conditions and detection parameters are generated based on the scattered light detected by the infrared imaging polarimeter. The results of simulation examples show that our polarimetric infrared imaging simulation can be applied to predict the infrared polarization characteristics of the sea surface, model the oceanic scene, and guide the detection in the oceanic environment.

An Investigation of the Radiative Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Sea Ice Sources of Sea Salt Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horowitz, H. M.; Alexander, B.; Bitz, C. M.; Jaegle, L.; Burrows, S. M.

2017-12-01

In polar regions, sea ice is a major source of sea salt aerosol through lofting of saline frost flowers or blowing saline snow from the sea ice surface. Under continued climate warming, an ice-free Arctic in summer with only first-year, more saline sea ice in winter is likely. Previous work has focused on climate impacts in summer from increasing open ocean sea salt aerosol emissions following complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, with conflicting results suggesting no net radiative effect or a negative climate feedback resulting from a strong first aerosol indirect effect. However, the radiative forcing from changes to the sea ice sources of sea salt aerosol in a future, warmer climate has not previously been explored. Understanding how sea ice loss affects the Arctic climate system requires investigating both open-ocean and sea ice sources of sea-salt aerosol and their potential interactions. Here, we implement a blowing snow source of sea salt aerosol into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) dynamically coupled to the latest version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5). Snow salinity is a key parameter affecting blowing snow sea salt emissions and previous work has assumed constant regional snow salinity over sea ice. We develop a parameterization for dynamic snow salinity in the sea ice model and examine how its spatial and temporal variability impacts the production of sea salt from blowing snow. We evaluate and constrain the snow salinity parameterization using available observations. Present-day coupled CESM-CICE5 simulations of sea salt aerosol concentrations including sea ice sources are evaluated against in situ and satellite (CALIOP) observations in polar regions. We then quantify the present-day radiative forcing from the addition of blowing snow sea salt aerosol with respect to aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The relative contributions of sea ice vs. open ocean sources of sea salt aerosol to radiative forcing in polar regions is discussed.

Cycling of nutrient elements in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brockmann, U. H.; Laane, R. W. P. M.; Postma, J.

The cycling of elements of inorganic and organic nutrients (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and silicate) in the North Sea is described. The regional effects on nutrient cycling such as thermal and haline stratification, coastal interaction, river discharges, upwelling and frontal zones are discussed. The horizontal and vertical distribution of the inorganic nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, ammonia and silicate) at the surface is given for the whole North Sea during two situations: spring (1986) and winter (1987). In winter, highest nutrient concentrations were found at the northern boundary in the Atlantic inflow, and in the continental coastal waters. During the winter cruise, nutrient minima were detected in the Dogger Bank area. This is an indication that primary production continues during winter. Generally, the surface concentrations during winter were similar to the bottom concentrations. Except for phosphate, highest concentrations were measured just above the bottom. During late spring 1986 the concentrations of nutrients at the surface and below the densicline were generally significantly lower than during winter. Only at the Atlantic boundary in the north and near the estuaries higher concentrations were detected. In stratified parts of the North Sea, the decomposition of sedimented biomass caused the ammonia concentrations in the bottom layer to be significantly higher in spring than in winter. Incidents of frontal upwelling in the central North Sea introduce nutrient-rich bottom water into the euphotic zone, enhancing phytoplankton growth in the central North Sea during summer. The ratios of nitrogen nutrients to phosphate show that in the central North Sea nitrogen is a limiting factor rather than phosphorus, whereas in the continental coastal water and off England the opposite is true. Riverine input and trapping mechanisms in the estuaries and tidal flats cause the concentrations of organic matter (dissolved and particulate) to be highest in the coastal zones and to decrease seaward. During summer the concentration of dissolved organic carbon increases throughout the North Sea. It is calculated that about 60% of the biomass formed by primary production is converted into dissolved organic carbon, 40% directly goes into the foodweb. The biological impact of the plankton is readily apparent from increased surface concentrations of different dissolved organic substances during spring blooms. Examples of eutrophication and effects of nutrient limitation are given, together with other biological repercussions such as coupling of phytoplankton and nutrient succession. Budget calculations for the different nutrient elements show that in the North Sea the biological turnover greatly exceeds the estimated annual inflow and outflow of nutrient elements. Finally, recommendations are given for future research. They include analysing dissolved organic compounds and micronutrients and following multidisciplinary measurements strategies at one location in order to obtain more information for balancing budgets and for the detailed analysis of nutrient cycling in the North Sea.

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea--a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms.

PubMed

Löw, F; Navratil, P; Kotte, K; Schöler, H F; Bubenzer, O

2013-10-01

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world's fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000-2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4-8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.

Influence of deep vortices on the ocean surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciani, Daniele; Carton, Xavier; Bashmachnikov, Igor; Chapron, Bertrand

2015-04-01

The oceanic motion at mesoscale (20-200 km) and submesoscale (0.5-20 km) is highly populated by vortices. These recirculating structures are more energetic than the mean flow, they trap water masses from their origination areas and advect them across the ocean, with consequent impact on the 3D distribution of heat and tracers. Mesoscale and submesoscale structures characterize the ocean dynamics both at the sea-surface and at intrathermocline depths (0-1500 m), and are presently investigated by means of model outputs and satellite (surface) data, the latest being the only way to get high resolution and synoptic observations at planetary scale (e.g., thermal-band observations, future altimetric observations given by the SWOT mission). The scientific question arising from this context is related to the role of the ocean surface for inferring informations on mesoscale and submesoscale vortices at depth. This study has also been motivated by the recent detection of subsurface eddies east of the Arabian Peninsula (PHYSINDIEN experiment - 2011). Using analytical models in the frame of the quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory, we could describe the theoretical altimetric signature of non-drifting and of drifting subsurface eddies. Numerical experiments, using both QG and primitive equations models, allowed us to investigate the surface expression of intrathermocline eddies interacting with baroclinic currents or evolving under planetary beta-effect. The eddies' characteristics (radius, depth, thickness, velocity) were varied in order to represent various oceanic examples (Meddies, Swoddies, Reddies, Peddies, Leddies). Idealized simulations with the ROMS model, confirming theoretical estimates, showed that drifting subsurface-intensified vortices can induce dipolar sea level anomalies, up to 3 cm. This result, compatibly with future SWOT measurement accuracies (about 2 cm), represents a contribution for systematic and synoptic detection of subsurface vortices.

Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century

PubMed Central

van Woesik, R.; Golbuu, Y.; Roff, G.

2015-01-01

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are ‘keeping up’ with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6–8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially ‘keep up’ with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low–mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m−2), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. PMID:26587277

Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

profiler (AXCP) ocean velocity shear (Morison), UpTempO buoy measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level atmospheric pressure ( SLP ), and...and prediction…. Steele UpTempO buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity Visible and Thermal Images of the SIZ from the Coast Guard...Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, SIC=Sea Ice

Multi-sensor Oceanographic Correlations for Pacific Hake Acoustic Survey Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozen, M.; Hillyer, N.; Holt, B.; Armstrong, E. M.

2010-12-01

North Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), the most abundant groundfish along the Pacific coast of northwestern America, are an essential source of income for the coastal region from southern California to British Columbia, Canada. However, hake abundance and distribution are highly variable among years, exhibiting variance in both the north-south and east-west distribution as seen in the results from biannual acoustic surveys. This project is part of a larger undertaking, ultimately focused on the prediction of hake distribution to improve the distribution of survey effort and precision of stock assessments in the future. Four remotely sensed oceanographic variables are examined as a first step in improving our understanding the relationship between the intensity of coastal upwelling and other ocean dynamics, and the north-south summer hake distribution. Sea surface height, wind vectors, chlorophyll - a concentrations, and sea surface temperature were acquired from several satellites, including AVHRR, SeaWifs, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, SSM/I, ASMR-E, and QuikScat. Data were aligned to the same spatial and temporal resolution, and these re-gridded data were then analyzed using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). EOFs were used as a spatio-temporally compact representation of the data and to reduce the co-variability of the multiple time series in the dataset. The EOF results were plotted and acoustic survey results were overlaid to understand differences between regions. Although this pilot project used data from only a single year (2007), it demonstrated a methodology for reducing dimensionality of linearly related satellite variables that can used in future applications, and provided insight into multi-dimensional ocean characteristics important for hake distribution.

Modeling sea-surface temperature and its variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarachik, E. S.

1985-01-01

A brief review is presented of the temporal scales of sea surface temperature variability. Progress in modeling sea surface temperature, and remaining obstacles to the understanding of the variability is discussed.

Thinning of the ice sheet in northwest Greenland over the past forty years.

PubMed

Paterson, W S; Reeh, N

2001-11-01

Thermal expansion of the oceans, as well as melting of glaciers, ice sheets and ice caps have been the main contributors to global sea level rise over the past century. The greatest uncertainty in predicting future sea level changes lies with our estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Satellite measurements have been used to determine changes in these ice sheets on short timescales, demonstrating that surface-elevation changes on timescales of decades or less result mainly from variations in snow accumulation. Here we present direct measurements of the changes in surface elevation between 1954 and 1995 on a traverse across the north Greenland ice sheet. Measurements over a time interval of this length should reflect changes in ice flow-the important quantity for predicting changes in sea level-relatively unperturbed by short-term fluctuations in snow accumulation. We find only small changes in the eastern part of the transect, except for some thickening of the north ice stream. On the west side, however, the thinning rates of the ice sheet are significantly higher and thinning extends to higher elevations than had been anticipated from previous studies.

Process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struthers, H.; Ekman, A. M.; Nilsson, E. D.

2011-12-01

Sea salt, an important natural aerosol, is generated by bubbles bursting at the surface of the ocean. Sea salt aerosol contributes significantly to the global aerosol burden and radiative budget and are a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in remote marine areas (Monahan et al., 1986). Consequently, changes in marine aerosol abundance is expected to impact on climate forcing. Estimates of the atmospheric burden of sea salt aerosol mass derived from chemical transport and global climate models vary greatly both in the global total and the spatial distribution (Texor et al. 2006). This large uncertainty in the sea salt aerosol distribution in turn contributes to the large uncertainty in the current estimates of anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing (IPCC, 2007). To correctly attribute anthropogenic climate change and to veraciously project future climate, natural aerosols including sea salt must be understood and accurately modelled. In addition, the physical processes that determine the sea salt aerosol concentration are susceptible to modification due to climate change (Carslaw et al., 2010) which means there is the potential for feedbacks within the climate/aerosol system. Given the large uncertainties in sea salt aerosol modelling, there is an urgent need to evaluate the process description of sea salt aerosols in global models. An extremely valuable source of data for model evaluation is the long term measurements of PM10 sea salt aerosol mass available from a number of remote marine observation sites around the globe (including the GAW network). Sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations depend strongly on the surface exchange (emission and deposition) as well as entrainment or detrainment to the free troposphere. This suggests that the key parameters to consider in any analysis include the sea surface water temperature, wind speed, precipitation rate and the atmospheric stability. In this study, the sea salt aerosol observations are analysed to quantify the key sensitivities of the processes connecting the physical drivers of sea salt aerosol to the mass tendency. The analysis employs a semi-empirical model based on the time-tendency of the aerosol mass. This approach of focusing on the time-tendency of the sea salt aerosol concentration provides a framework for the process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations in global models. The same analysis methodology can be applied to output from global models. A process of comparing the sensitivity parameters derived from observations and models will reveal model inadequacies and thus guide model improvements. Carslaw, K. S., Boucher, O., Spracklen, D. V., Mann G. W., Rae, J. G. L, Woodward, S., Kulmala, M. (2010). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1701-1737 IPCC (2007). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Monahan, E. C., Spiel, D. E., Davidson, K. L. (1986) Oceanic Whitecaps ed. Monahan E. C. & MacNiochaill, D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass. Texor, C., et al. (2006) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 1777-1813.

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2010-01-01

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Effect of increased temperature, CO2, and iron on nitrate uptake and primary productivity in the coastal Ross Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronk, D. A.; Spackeen, J.; Sipler, R. E.; Bertrand, E. M.; Roberts, Q. N.; Xu, K.; Baer, S. E.; McQuaid, J.; Zhu, Z.; Walworth, N. G.; Hutchins, D. A.; Allen, A. E.

2016-02-01

Western Antarctic Seas are rapidly changing as a result of elevated concentrations of CO2 and rising sea surface temperatures. It is critical to determine how the structure and function of microbial communities will be impacted by these changes in the future because the Southern Ocean has seasonally high rates of primary production, is an important sink for anthropogenic CO2, and supports a diverse assemblage of higher trophic level organisms. During the Austral summer of 2013 and 2015, a collaborative research group conducted a series of experiments to understand how the individual and combined effects of temperature, CO2, and iron impact Ross Sea microorganisms. Our project used a variety of approaches, including batch experiments, semi-continuous experiments, and continuous-culturing over extended time intervals, to determine how future changes may shift Ross Sea microbial communities and how nutrient cycling and carbon biogeochemistry may subsequently be altered. Chemical and biological parameters were measured throughout the experiments to assess changes in community composition and nutrient cycling, including uptake rate measurements of nitrate and bicarbonate by different size fractions of microorganisms. Relative to the control, nitrate uptake rates significantly increased when temperature and iron were elevated indicating that temperature and iron are important physical drivers that influence nutrient cycling. Elevations in temperature and iron independently and synergistically produced higher rates than elevated CO2. Our nutrient uptake results also suggest that the physiology of large microorganisms will be more impacted by climate change variables than small microorganisms.

Evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs to accurately simulate the Etesian wind system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafka, Stella; Xoplaki, Elena; Toreti, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Luterbacher, Jürg

2016-04-01

The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that blow over the Aegean Sea during the extended summer season. ΑAn evaluation of the high spatial resolution, EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is here presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatiotemporal pattern of the Etesian wind system for the period 1989-2004. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating the surface wind over the Aegean Sea and the associated large scale atmospheric circulation. Mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP), wind speed and geopotential height at 500 hPa are used. The simulated results are validated against reanalysis datasets (20CR-v2c and ERA20-C) and daily observational measurements (12:00 UTC) from the mainland Greece and Aegean Sea. The analysis highlights the general ability of the RCMs to capture the basic features of the Etesians, but also indicates considerable deficiencies for selected metrics, regions and subperiods. Some of these deficiencies include the significant underestimation (overestimation) of the mean SLP in the northeastern part of the analysis domain in all subperiods (for May and June) when compared to 20CR-v2c (ERA20-C), the significant overestimation of the anomalous ridge over the Balkans and central Europe and the underestimation of the wind speed over the Aegean Sea. Future work will include an assessment of the Etesians for the next decades using EURO-CORDEX projections under different RCP scenarios and estimate the future potential for wind energy production.

Ku band airborne radar altimeter observations of marginal sea ice during the 1984 Marginal Ice Zone Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drinkwater, Mark R.

1991-01-01

Pulse-limited, airborne radar data taken in June and July 1984 with a 13.8-GHz altimeter over the Fram Strait marginal ice zone are analyzed with the aid of large-format aerial photography, airborne synthetic aperture radar data, and surface observations. Variations in the radar return pulse waveforms are quantified and correlated with ice properties recorded during the Marginal Ice Zone Experiment. Results indicate that the wide-beam altimeter is a flexible instrument, capable of identifying the ice edge with a high degree of accuracy, calculating the ice concentration, and discriminating a number of different ice classes. This suggests that microwave radar altimeters have a sensitivity to sea ice which has not yet been fully exploited. When fused with SSM/I, AVHRR and ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar imagery, future ERS-1 altimeter data are expected to provide some missing pieces to the sea ice geophysics puzzle.

Integrated Modeling of Water Policy Futures in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjelland, M. K.; Forster, C. B.; Grant, W. E.; Collins, K.

2004-12-01

Divided by an international border, the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys (IMVs) are linked by shared history, natural resources, culture and economy. This region is experiencing changes driven by policy makers both within and outside the IMVs. The largest external decision, the Colorado River Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) of 2003, opens the door to a laboratory for studying the consequences of a massive transfer of agricultural water to municipal users. Two irrigation districts, two urban water agencies and the State of California have agreed to a 75 year of more than 30 million acre-feet of Colorado River water from agricultural to urban use. Although Imperial Valley farmers will be compensated for water conservation and land fallowing, the economic, environmental and social consequences are unclear. Farmers who fallow will likely cause a greater impact on local businesses and government than those choosing on-field water conservation. Reduced agricultural water use causes reduced flow of irrigation runoff, at higher salinity than before, to the Salton Sea that, in turn, impacts the population dynamics of Ichthyan and Avian species at the Salton Sea. Municipal wastewater discharged into the New River by Mexicali, Mexico is also an important source of inflow to the Salton Sea that will be reduce by plans to reclaim the wastewater for various uses, including cooling water for two new power plants in the Mexicali. A restoration program is funded to produce a Sea with much reduced surface area. But this approach may, in turn, lead to increases in windblown dust from the dry lakebed that will contribute to an air basin already designated as a federal nonattainment area for particulate emissions. Additional water will be conserved by lining the All American and Coachella canals. But, eliminating seepage from the All American canal reduces groundwater recharge to aquifers used by Mexican farmers. A complex interplay of water-related issues must be accounted for if planners and residents of the IMVs are to make sound socioeconomic and environmental policy decisions. We use a spatially-explicit, stochastic, simulation compartment model (based on difference equations with a daily time step programmed with STELLAr software) to simulate the hydrologic system that underlies our broader modeling of the socioeconomic and environmental future of the IMVs. Alternative future scenarios are defined and used to explore the hydrologic and environmental implications of variations in future Colorado River flows, and various water-related policy decisions. The results of a suite of simulations, made assuming that the Sea is not impounded in small sub-Seas, suggest that the salinity of the Salton Sea is most likely to continue increasing. If this is the case, and if restoration of the Salton Sea continues to be a high priority, then more aggressive water conservation methods or a much smaller Salton Sea will be required. More aggressive conservation will lead to greater socioeconomic concerns, while a smaller Sea will increase concerns regarding windblown dust from the exposed lakebed.

Black sea surface temperature anomaly on 5th August 1998 and the ozone layer thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manev, A.; Palazov, K.; Raykov, St.; Ivanov, V.

2003-04-01

BLACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON 5th AUGUST 1998 AND THE OZONE LAYER THICKNESS A. Manev , K. Palazov , St. Raykov, V. Ivanov Solar Terrestrial Influences Laboratory, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences amanev@abv.bg This paper focuses on the peculiarities of the Black Sea surface temperature anomaly on 05.08.1998. Researching the daily temperature changes in a number of control fields in the course of 8-10 years, we have found hidden correlations and anomalous deviations in the sea surface temperatures on a global scale. Research proves the statistical reliability of the temperature anomaly on the entire Black Sea surface registered on 04.-05.08.1998. In the course of six days around these dates the temperatures are up to 2°C higher than the maximum temperatures in this period in the other seven years. A more detailed analysis of the dynamics of the anomaly required the investigation of five Black Sea surface characteristic zones of 75x75 km. The analysis covers the period 20 days - 10 days before and 10 days after the anomaly. Investigations aimed at interpreting the reasons for the anomalous heating of the surface waters. We have tried to analyze the correlation between sea surface temperature and the global ozone above the Black Sea by using simultaneously data from the two satellite systems NOAA and TOMS. Methods of processing and comparing the data from the two satellite systems are described. The correlation coefficients values for the five characteristic zones are very high and close, which proves that the character of the correlation ozone - sea surface temperature is the same for the entire Black Sea surface. Despite the high correlation coefficient, we have proved that causality between the two phenomena at the time of the anomaly does not exit.

Analyses of Sea Surface Height, Bottom Pressure and Acoustic Travel Time in the Japan/East Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

ANALYSES OF SEA SURFACE HEIGHT, BOTTOM PRESSURE AND ACOUSTIC TRAVEL TIME IN THE JAPAN/EAST SEA BY YONGSHENG XU A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL...COVERED 00-00-2006 to 00-00-2006 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Analyses of Sea Surface Height, Bottom Pressure and Acoustic Travel Time in the Japan/East Sea...1999 to July 2001. The PIESs recorded hourly vertical acoustic travel time and pressure, which are respectively good proxies of baroclinic and

High wind speeds prevent formation of a distinct bacterioneuston community in the sea-surface microlayer

PubMed Central

Stolle, Christian; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Brinkhoff, Thorsten; Ribas-Ribas, Mariana; Hodapp, Dorothee; Wurl, Oliver

2017-01-01

Abstract The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the boundary between atmosphere and hydrosphere represents a demanding habitat for bacteria. Wind speed is a crucial but poorly studied factor for its physical integrity. Increasing atmospheric burden of CO2, as suggested for future climate scenarios, may particularly act on this habitat at the air–sea interface. We investigated the effect of increasing wind speeds and different pCO2 levels on SML microbial communities in a wind-wave tunnel, which offered the advantage of low spatial and temporal variability. We found that enrichment of bacteria in the SML occurred solely at a U10 wind speed of ≤5.6 m s−1 in the tunnel and ≤4.1 m s−1 in the Baltic Sea. High pCO2 levels further intensified the bacterial enrichment in the SML during low wind speed. In addition, low wind speed and pCO2 induced the formation of a distinctive bacterial community as revealed by 16S rRNA gene fingerprints and influenced the presence or absence of individual taxonomic units within the SML. We conclude that physical stability of the SML below a system-specific wind speed threshold induces specific bacterial communities in the SML entailing strong implications for ecosystem functioning by wind-driven impacts on habitat properties, gas exchange and matter cycling processes. PMID:28369320

Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

2018-02-01

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

High wind speeds prevent formation of a distinct bacterioneuston community in the sea-surface microlayer.

PubMed

Rahlff, Janina; Stolle, Christian; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Brinkhoff, Thorsten; Ribas-Ribas, Mariana; Hodapp, Dorothee; Wurl, Oliver

2017-05-01

The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the boundary between atmosphere and hydrosphere represents a demanding habitat for bacteria. Wind speed is a crucial but poorly studied factor for its physical integrity. Increasing atmospheric burden of CO2, as suggested for future climate scenarios, may particularly act on this habitat at the air-sea interface. We investigated the effect of increasing wind speeds and different pCO2 levels on SML microbial communities in a wind-wave tunnel, which offered the advantage of low spatial and temporal variability. We found that enrichment of bacteria in the SML occurred solely at a U10 wind speed of ≤5.6 m s-1 in the tunnel and ≤4.1 m s-1 in the Baltic Sea. High pCO2 levels further intensified the bacterial enrichment in the SML during low wind speed. In addition, low wind speed and pCO2 induced the formation of a distinctive bacterial community as revealed by 16S rRNA gene fingerprints and influenced the presence or absence of individual taxonomic units within the SML. We conclude that physical stability of the SML below a system-specific wind speed threshold induces specific bacterial communities in the SML entailing strong implications for ecosystem functioning by wind-driven impacts on habitat properties, gas exchange and matter cycling processes. © FEMS 2017.

129I and its species in the East China Sea: level, distribution, sources and tracing water masses exchange and movement

PubMed Central

Liu, Dan; Hou, Xiaolin; Du, Jinzhou; Zhang, Luyuan; Zhou, Weijian

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic 129I as a long-lived radioisotope of iodine has been considered as an ideal oceanographic tracer due to its high residence time and conservative property in the ocean. Surface water samples collected from the East China Sea (ECS) in August 2013 were analyzed for 129I, 127I and their inorganic chemical species in the first time. The measured 129I/127I ratio is 1–3 orders of magnitude higher than the pre-nuclear level, indicating its dominantly anthropogenic sources. Relatively high 129I levels were observed in the Yangtze River and its estuary, as well as in the southern Yellow Sea, and 129I level in seawater declines towards the ECS shelf. In the open sea, 129I and 127I in surface water exists mainly as iodate, while in Yangtze River estuary and some locations, iodide is dominated. The results indicate that the Fukushima nuclear accident has no detectable effects in the ECS until August 2013. The obtained results are used for investigation of interaction of various water masses and water circulation in the ECS, as well as the marine environment in this region. Meanwhile this work provides essential data for evaluation of the possible influence of the increasing NPPs along the coast of the ECS in the future. PMID:27849026

Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Selten, F M

2014-05-22

Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

Convective forcing of mercury and ozone in the Arctic boundary layer induced by leads in sea ice.

PubMed

Moore, Christopher W; Obrist, Daniel; Steffen, Alexandra; Staebler, Ralf M; Douglas, Thomas A; Richter, Andreas; Nghiem, Son V

2014-02-06

The ongoing regime shift of Arctic sea ice from perennial to seasonal ice is associated with more dynamic patterns of opening and closing sea-ice leads (large transient channels of open water in the ice), which may affect atmospheric and biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic. Mercury and ozone are rapidly removed from the atmospheric boundary layer during depletion events in the Arctic, caused by destruction of ozone along with oxidation of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)) to oxidized mercury (Hg(II)) in the atmosphere and its subsequent deposition to snow and ice. Ozone depletion events can change the oxidative capacity of the air by affecting atmospheric hydroxyl radical chemistry, whereas atmospheric mercury depletion events can increase the deposition of mercury to the Arctic, some of which can enter ecosystems during snowmelt. Here we present near-surface measurements of atmospheric mercury and ozone from two Arctic field campaigns near Barrow, Alaska. We find that coastal depletion events are directly linked to sea-ice dynamics. A consolidated ice cover facilitates the depletion of Hg(0) and ozone, but these immediately recover to near-background concentrations in the upwind presence of open sea-ice leads. We attribute the rapid recoveries of Hg(0) and ozone to lead-initiated shallow convection in the stable Arctic boundary layer, which mixes Hg(0) and ozone from undepleted air masses aloft. This convective forcing provides additional Hg(0) to the surface layer at a time of active depletion chemistry, where it is subject to renewed oxidation. Future work will need to establish the degree to which large-scale changes in sea-ice dynamics across the Arctic alter ozone chemistry and mercury deposition in fragile Arctic ecosystems.

Relationship between clouds and sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arking, Albert; Ziskin, Daniel

1994-01-01

Analysis of four years of earth radiation budget, cloud, and sea surface temperature data confirms that cloud parameters change dramatically when and where sea surface temperatures increase above approximately 300K. These results are based upon monthly mean values within 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid points over the 'warm pool' region of the western tropical Pacific. The question of whether sea surface temperatures are influenced, in turn, by the radiative effects of these clouds (Ramanathan and Collins) is less clear. Such a feedback, if it exists, is weak. The reason why clouds might have so little influence, despite large changes in their longwave and shortwave radiative effects, might be that the sea surface responds to both the longwave heating and the shortwave cooling effects of clouds, and the two effects nearly cancel. There are strong correlations between the rate of change of sea surface temperature and any of the radiation budget parameters that are highly correlated with the incident solar flux-implying that season and latitude are the critical factors determining sea surface temperatures. With the seasonal or both seasonal and latitudinal variations removed, the rate of change of sea surface temperature shows no correlation with cloud-related parameters in the western tropical Pacific.

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Biofilm-like properties of the sea surface and predicted effects on air-sea CO2 exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, Oliver; Stolle, Christian; Van Thuoc, Chu; The Thu, Pham; Mari, Xavier

2016-05-01

Because the sea surface controls various interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, it has a profound function for marine biogeochemistry and climate regulation. The sea surface is the gateway for the exchange of climate-relevant gases, heat and particles. Thus, in order to determine how the ocean and the atmosphere interact and respond to environmental changes on a global scale, the characterization and understanding of the sea surface are essential. The uppermost part of the water column is defined as the sea-surface microlayer and experiences strong spatial and temporal dynamics, mainly due to meteorological forcing. Wave-damped areas at the sea surface are caused by the accumulation of surface-active organic material and are defined as slicks. Natural slicks are observed frequently but their biogeochemical properties are poorly understood. In the present study, we found up to 40 times more transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), the foundation of any biofilm, in slicks compared to the underlying bulk water at multiple stations in the North Pacific, South China Sea, and Baltic Sea. We found a significant lower enrichment of TEP (up to 6) in non-slick sea surfaces compared to its underlying bulk water. Moreover, slicks were characterized by a large microbial biomass, another shared feature with conventional biofilms on solid surfaces. Compared to non-slick samples (avg. pairwise similarity of 70%), the community composition of bacteria in slicks was increasingly (avg. pairwise similarity of 45%) different from bulk water communities, indicating that the TEP-matrix creates specific environments for its inhabitants. We, therefore, conclude that slicks can feature biofilm-like properties with the excessive accumulation of particles and microbes. We also assessed the potential distribution and frequency of slick-formation in coastal and oceanic regions, and their effect on air-sea CO2 exchange based on literature data. We estimate that slicks can reduce CO2 fluxes by up to 15%, and, therefore, play important local and regional roles in regulating air-sea interactions.

Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takhsha, Maryam; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Laprise, René; Hernández-Díaz, Leticia; Winger, Katja

2017-10-01

As part of the CORDEX project, the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) is used over the Arctic for climate simulations driven by reanalyses and by the MPI-ESM-MR coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CRCM5 shows adequate skills capturing general features of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) for all seasons. Evaluating 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation is more problematic, because of inconsistencies between observational reference datasets over the Arctic that suffer of a sparse distribution of weather stations. In our study, we additionally investigated the effect of large-scale spectral nudging (SN) on the hindcast simulation driven by reanalyses. The analysis shows that SN is effective in reducing the spring MSLP bias, but otherwise it has little impact. We have also conducted another experiment in which the CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperature (SST) is empirically corrected and used as lower boundary conditions over the ocean for an atmosphere-only global simulation (AGCM), which in turn provides the atmospheric lateral boundary conditions to drive the CRCM5 simulation. This approach, so-called 3-step approach of dynamical downscaling (CGCM-AGCM-RCM), which had considerably improved the CRCM5 historical simulations over Africa, exhibits reduced impact over the Arctic domain. The most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

Quantification of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production in the sea anemone Aiptasia sp. to simulate the sea-to-air flux from coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franchini, Filippo; Steinke, Michael

2017-12-01

The production of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is poorly quantified in tropical reef environments but forms an essential process that couples marine and terrestrial sulfur cycles and affects climate. Here we quantified net aqueous DMS production and the concentration of its cellular precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) in the sea anemone Aiptasia sp., a model organism to study coral-related processes. Bleached anemones did not show net DMS production whereas symbiotic anemones produced DMS concentrations (mean ± standard error) of 160.7 ± 44.22 nmol g-1 dry weight (DW) after 48 h incubation. Symbiotic and bleached individuals showed DMSP concentrations of 32.7 ± 6.00 and 0.6 ± 0.19 µmol g-1 DW, respectively. We applied these findings to a Monte Carlo simulation to demonstrate that net aqueous DMS production accounts for only 20 % of gross aqueous DMS production. Monte Carlo-based estimations of sea-to-air fluxes of gaseous DMS showed that reefs may release 0.1 to 26.3 µmol DMS m-2 coral surface area (CSA) d-1 into the atmosphere with 40 % probability for rates between 0.5 and 1.5 µmol m-2 CSA d-1. These predictions were in agreement with directly quantified fluxes in previous studies. Conversion to a flux normalised to sea surface area (SSA) (range 0.1 to 17.4, with the highest probability for 0.3 to 1.0 µmol DMS m-2 SSA d-1) suggests that coral reefs emit gaseous DMS at lower rates than the average global oceanic DMS flux of 4.6 µmol m-2 SSA d-1 (19.6 Tg sulfur per year). The large difference between simulated gross and quantified net aqueous DMS production in corals suggests that the current and future potential for its production in tropical reefs is critically governed by DMS consumption processes. Hence, more research is required to assess the sensitivity of DMS-consumption pathways to ongoing environmental change in order to address the impact of predicted degradation of coral reefs on DMS production in tropical coastal ecosystems and its impact on future atmospheric DMS concentrations and climate.

Analysis of Complex Marine Hazards on the Romanian Black Sea Shelf Using Combined Geophysical Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samoila, I. V.; Radulescu, V.; Moise, G.; Diaconu, A.; Radulescu, R.

2017-12-01

Combined geophysical acquisition technologies including High Resolution 2D Seismic (HR2D), Multi-Beam Echo-Sounding (MBES), Sub-Bottom Profiling (SBP) and Magnetometry were used in the Western Black Sea (offshore Romania) to identify possible geohazards, such as gas escaping surface sediments and tectonic hazard areas up to 1 km below the seafloor. The National Project was funded by the Research and Innovation Ministry of Romania, and has taken place over 1.5 years with the purpose of creating risk maps for the surveyed pilot area. Using an array of geophysical methods and creating a workflow to identify geohazard susceptible areas on the Romanian Black Sea continental shelf is important and beneficial for future research projects. The SBP and MBES data show disturbed areas that can be interpreted as gas escapes on the surface of the seafloor, and some escapes were confirmed on the HR2D profiles. Shallow gas indicators like gas chimneys and acoustic blanking are usually delimited by vertical, sub-vertical and/or quasi-horizontal faults that mark possible hazard areas on shallow sedimentary sections. Interpreted seismic profiles show three main markers: one delimiting the Pliocene-Quaternary boundary and two for the Miocene (Upper and Lower). Vertical and quasi-horizontal faults are characteristic for the Upper Miocene, while the Lower Miocene has NW-SE horizontal faults. Faults and possible hazard areas were marked on seismic sections and were further correlated with the MBES, SBP, Magnetometry and previously recorded data, such as earthquake epicenters scattered offshore in the Western Black Sea. The main fault systems likely to cause those earthquakes also aid the migration of gas if the faults are not sealed. We observed that the gas escapes were correlated with faults described on the recent seismic profiles. Mapping hazard areas will have an important contribution to better understand the recent evolution of the Western Black Sea basin but also for projecting the future offshore infrastructures. The resulting correlations in the geophysical data allowed us to create a workflow that shows desirable results for this area, and can be applied to other interest areas successfully and cost effectively.

Coupled Long-Term Evolution of Climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lofverstrom, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is expected to contribute increasingly to global sea level rise by the end of this century, and potentially several meters in this millennium, but still with considerable uncertainty. The rate of Greenland melt will impact on regional sea levels. The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 ka to 116 ka) is recognized as an important period for testing our knowledge of climate-ice sheet interactions in warm climate states. Although the LIG was discussed in the First Assessment Report of the IPCC, it gained more prominence in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment (AR4 and AR5) with reconstructions highlighting that global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher (but probably no more than 10 m higher) than present for several thousand years during the LIG. Model results assessed for the AR5 suggest a sea level contribution of 1.4 to 4.3 m from the GrIS. These model simulations, though, did not include all the feedbacks of the climate system and the GrIS. Here, we examine the response of the Arctic climate system and the GrIS in simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), using a surface energy balance scheme and without bias corrections. The analysis focuses on how the GrIS responds to the imposed high boreal summer insolation of the LIG and in addition, to the long-term feedbacks of high-latitude vegetation changes. Results will highlight the evolution of the ice sheet and the surface mass balance (patterns of ablation and accumulation) as compared to data-based reconstructions for the LIG. We conclude with a discussion on how the LIG may be informative as a potential process analogue for the GrIS response for future centuries to come.

Sensitivity of Offshore Surface Fluxes and Sea Breezes to the Spatial Distribution of Sea-Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, Kelly; Sinsky, Eric; Edson, James; Whitney, Michael M.; Jia, Yan

2018-03-01

A series of numerical sensitivity experiments is performed to quantify the impact of sea-surface temperature (SST) distribution on offshore surface fluxes and simulated sea-breeze dynamics. The SST simulations of two mid-latitude sea-breeze events over coastal New England are performed using a spatially-uniform SST, as well as spatially-varying SST datasets of 32- and 1-km horizontal resolutions. Offshore surface heat and buoyancy fluxes vary in response to the SST distribution. Local sea-breeze circulations are relatively insensitive, with minimal differences in vertical structure and propagation speed among the experiments. The largest thermal perturbations are confined to the lowest 10% of the sea-breeze column due to the relatively high stability of the mid-Atlantic marine atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) suppressing vertical mixing, resulting in the depth of the marine layer remaining unchanged. Minimal impacts on the column-averaged virtual potential temperature and sea-breeze depth translates to small changes in sea-breeze propagation speed. This indicates that the use of datasets with a fine-scale SST may not produce more accurate sea-breeze simulations in highly stable marine ABL regimes, though may prove more beneficial in less stable sub-tropical environments.

Enhanced Arctic Mean Sea Surface and Mean Dynamic Topography including retracked CryoSat-2 Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, O. B.; Jain, M.; Stenseng, L.; Knudsen, P.

2014-12-01

A reliable mean sea surface (MSS) is essential to derive a good mean dynamic topography (MDT) and for the estimation of short and long-term changes in the sea surface. The lack of satellite radar altimetry observations above 82 degrees latitude means that existing mean sea surface models have been unreliable in the Arctic Ocean. We here present the latest DTU mean sea surface and mean dynamic topography models combining conventional altimetry with retracked CryoSat-2 data to improve the reliability in the Arctic Ocean. For the derivation of a mean dynamic topography the ESA GOCE derived geoid model have been used to constrain the longer wavelength. We present the retracking of C2 SAR data using various retrackes and how we have been able to combine data from various retrackers under various sea ice conditions. DTU13MSS and DTU13MDT are the newest state of the art global high-resolution models including CryoSat-2 data to extend the satellite radar altimetry coverage up to 88 degrees latitude and through combination with a GOCE geoid model completes coverage all the way to the North Pole. Furthermore the SAR and SARin capability of CryoSat-2 dramatically increases the amount of useable sea surface returns in sea-ice covered areas compared to conventional radar altimeters like ENVISAT and ERS-1/2. With the inclusion of CryoSat-2 data the new mean sea surface is improved by more than 20 cm above 82 degrees latitude compared with the previous generation of mean sea surfaces.

The dependence of sea surface slope on atmospheric stability and swell conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hwang, Paul A.; Shemdin, Omar H.

1988-01-01

A tower-mounted optical device is used to measure the two-orthogonal components of the sea surface slope. The results indicate that an unstable stratification at the air-sea interface tends to enhance the surface roughness. The presence of a long ocean swell system steers the primary direction of shortwave propagation away from wind direction, and may increase or reduce the mean square slope of the sea surface.

Clear water radiances for atmospheric correction of coastal zone color scanner imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, H. R.; Clark, D. K.

1981-01-01

The possibility of computing the inherent sea surface radiance for regions of clear water from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) imagery given only a knowledge of the local solar zenith angle is examined. The inherent sea surface radiance is related to the upwelling and downwelling irradiances just beneath the sea surface, and an expression is obtained for a normalized inherent sea surface radiance which is nearly independent of solar zenith angle for low phytoplankton pigment concentrations. An analysis of a data base consisting of vertical profiles of upwelled spectral radiance and pigment concentration, which was used in the development of the CZCS program, confirms the virtual constancy of the normalized inherent sea surface radiance at wavelengths of 520 and 550 nm for cases when the pigment concentration is less than 0.25 mg/cu m. A strategy is then developed for using the normalized inherent sea surface radiance in the atmospheric correction of CZCS imagery.

The Last Interglacial Labrador Sea: A Pervasive Millennial Oscillation In Surface Water Conditions Without Labrador Sea Water Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillaire-Marcel, C.; de Vernal, A.

A multi-proxy approach was developed to document secular to millenial changes of potential density in surface, mesopelagic, and bottom waters of the Labrador Sea, thus allowing to reconstruct situations when winter convection with intermediate or deep water formation occurred in the basin. This approach relies on dinocyst-transfer functions providing estimates of sea-surface temperature and salinity that are used to calibrate past-relationships between oxygen 18 contents in calcite and potential density gradients. The oxygen isotope compositions of epipelagic (Globigerina bul- loides), deeper-dwelling (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, left coiling), and benthic (Uvigerina peregrina and Cibicides wuellerstorfi) foraminifera, then allow to extrap- olate density gradients between the corresponding water layers. This approach has been tested in surface sediments in reference to modern hydrographic conditions at several sites from the NW North Atlantic, then used to reconstruct past conditions from high resolution studies of cores raised from the southern Greenland Rise (off Cape Farewell). Results indicate that the modern-like regime established during the early Holocene and full developed after 7 ka only. It is marked by weak density gradi- ents between the surface and intermediate water masses, allowing winter convection down to a lower pycnocline between intermediate and deep-water masses, thus the formation of intermediate Labrador Sea Water (LSW). Contrasting with the middle to late Holocene situation, since the last interglacial and throughout the last climatic cycle, a single and dense water mass seems to have occupied the water column below a generally low-density surface water layer, thus preventing deep convection. There- fore, the production of LSW seems to be feature specific to the present interglacial interval that could soon cease to exist, due to global warming, as suggested by recent ocean model experiments and by the fact that it never occurred during the last inter- glacial. We think that the mechanism for the eventual shut-down in LSW formation involves an enhanced freshwater export from the Arctic into the Labrador Sea, as a consequence of both an enhanced hydrological cycle in a warmer mean climate, and a lesser sea-ice extend in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Both the last interglacial and the Holocene depict large amplitude millenial oscillations in surface water conditions and in density gradients with the underlying water mass. During the last 11 ka, six 1 of these oscillations are recorded, and those that occurred since ca. 7 ka BP probably resulted in large amplitude changes in LSW-production rate. These oscillations pos- sibly correspond to the Holocene "pervasive millennial cycle" observed by Bond and others in a few North Atlantic records. We hypothesize that they are related to sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean and to the relative routing of outflowing freshwaters through either the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or Fram Strait, into the North Atlantic. These oscillations would probably maintain after an eventual collapse of LSW forma- tion, as suggested by the last interglacial reconstructions, but their impact on future thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic is unclear. 2

EM Bias-Correction for Ice Thickness and Surface Roughness Retrievals over Rough Deformed Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Gaiser, P. W.; Allard, R.; Posey, P. G.; Hebert, D. A.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

2016-12-01

The very rough ridge sea ice accounts for significant percentage of total ice areas and even larger percentage of total volume. The commonly used Radar altimeter surface detection techniques are empirical in nature and work well only over level/smooth sea ice. Rough sea ice surfaces can modify the return waveforms, resulting in significant Electromagnetic (EM) bias in the estimated surface elevations, and thus large errors in the ice thickness retrievals. To understand and quantify such sea ice surface roughness effects, a combined EM rough surface and volume scattering model was developed to simulate radar returns from the rough sea ice `layer cake' structure. A waveform matching technique was also developed to fit observed waveforms to a physically-based waveform model and subsequently correct the roughness induced EM bias in the estimated freeboard. This new EM Bias Corrected (EMBC) algorithm was able to better retrieve surface elevations and estimate the surface roughness parameter simultaneously. In situ data from multi-instrument airborne and ground campaigns were used to validate the ice thickness and surface roughness retrievals. For the surface roughness retrievals, we applied this EMBC algorithm to co-incident LiDAR/Radar measurements collected during a Cryosat-2 under-flight by the NASA IceBridge missions. Results show that not only does the waveform model fit very well to the measured radar waveform, but also the roughness parameters derived independently from the LiDAR and radar data agree very well for both level and deformed sea ice. For sea ice thickness retrievals, validation based on in-situ data from the coordinated CRREL/NRL field campaign demonstrates that the physically-based EMBC algorithm performs fundamentally better than the empirical algorithm over very rough deformed sea ice, suggesting that sea ice surface roughness effects can be modeled and corrected based solely on the radar return waveforms.

Salt dissolution and sinkhole formation: Results of laboratory experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oz, Imri; Eyal, Shalev; Yoseph, Yechieli; Ittai, Gavrieli; Elad, Levanon; Haim, Gvirtzman

2016-10-01

The accepted mechanism for the formation of thousands of sinkholes along the coast of the Dead Sea suggests that their primary cause is dissolution of a salt layer by groundwater undersaturated with respect to halite. This is related to the drop in the Dead Sea level, which caused a corresponding drop of the freshwater-saltwater interface, resulting in fresher groundwater replacing the brines that were in contact with the salt layer. In this study we used physical laboratory experiments to examine the validity of this mechanism by reproducing the full dynamic natural process and to examine the impact of different hydrogeological characteristics on this process. The experimental results show surface subsidence and sinkhole formation. The stratigraphic configurations of the aquifer, together with the mechanical properties of the salt layer, determine the dynamic patterns of the sinkhole formation (instantaneous versus gradual formation). Laboratory experiments were also used to study the potential impact of future stratification in the Dead Sea, if and when the "Red Sea-Dead Sea Canal" project is carried out, and the Dead Sea level remains stable. The results show that the dissolution rates are slower by 1 order of magnitude in comparison with a nonstratified saltwater body, and therefore, the processes of salt dissolution and sinkhole formation will be relatively restrained under these conditions.

Contamination of the cement raw material in a quarry site by seawater intrusion, Darica-Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camur, M. Zeki; Doyuran, Vedat

2008-02-01

The open pit mining nearby shoreline is planned to be extended into below sea level in order to use additional reserves of the cement raw material (marl). The raw material is currently contaminated by seawater intrusion below a depth of 20 m up to the distance of 90 m from shoreline. Seawater intrusion related contamination of the material used for the cement production was investigated by means of diffusion process for the future two below sea level mining scenarios covering 43 years of period. According to the results, chloride concentrations higher than the tolerable limit of a cement raw material would be present in the material about 10-25 cm inward from each discontinuity surface, controlling groundwater flow, located between 170 and 300 m landward from the shoreline at below sea level mining depths of 0-30 m. The estimations suggest that total amounts of dilution required for the contaminated raw material to reduce its concentration level to the tolerance limit with uncontaminated raw material are about 113- to 124-fold for scenario I (13 years of below sea level mining after 30 years of above sea level mining) and about 126- to 138-fold for scenario II (43 years of simultaneous above and below sea level minings).

Seasonal Variation in Sea Turtle Density and Abundance in the Southeast Florida Current and Surrounding Waters.

PubMed

Bovery, Caitlin M; Wyneken, Jeanette

2015-01-01

Assessment and management of sea turtle populations is often limited by a lack of available data pertaining to at-sea distributions at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. Assessing the spatial and temporal distributions of marine turtles in an open system poses both observational and analytical challenges due to the turtles' highly migratory nature. Surface counts of marine turtles in waters along the southern part of Florida's east coast were made in and adjacent to the southeast portion of the Florida Current using standard aerial surveys during 2011 and 2012 to assess their seasonal presence. This area is of particular concern for sea turtles as interest increases in offshore energy developments, specifically harnessing the power of the Florida Current. While it is understood that marine turtles use these waters, here we evaluate seasonal variation in sea turtle abundance and density over two years. Density of sea turtles observed within the study area ranged from 0.003 turtles km-2 in the winter of 2011 to 0.064 turtles km-2 in the spring of 2012. This assessment of marine turtles in the waters off southeast Florida quantifies their in-water abundance across seasons in this area to establish baselines and inform future management strategies of these protected species.

The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

2008-09-01

This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from GRACE time-variable gravity and altimeter sea surface height measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahr, John; Smeed, David; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

2014-05-01

Seasonal variability of sea surface height and mass within the Red Sea, occurs mostly through the exchange of heat with the atmosphere and wind-driven inflow and outflow of water through the strait of Bab el Mandab that opens into the Gulf of Aden to the south. The seasonal effects of precipitation and evaporation, of water exchange through the Suez Canal to the north, and of runoff from the adjacent land, are all small. The flow through the Bab el Mandab involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during the winter and a net transfer out during the summer. But that flow has a multi-layer pattern, so that in the summer there is actually an influx of cool water at intermediate (~100 m) depths. Thus, summer water in the southern Red Sea is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths (especially in the far south). Summer water in the northern Red Sea experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature profile affects the water density, which impacts the sea surface height but has no effect on vertically integrated mass. Here, we study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE time-variable mass estimates, altimeter (Jason-1, Jason-2, and Envisat) measurements of sea surface height, and steric sea surface height contributions derived from depth-dependent, climatological values of temperature and salinity obtained from the World Ocean Atlas. We find good consistency, particularly in the northern Red Sea, between these three data types. Among the general characteristics of our results are: (1) the mass contributions to seasonal SSHT variations are much larger than the steric contributions; (2) the mass signal is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea through the Strait of Bab el Mandab in winter, and out during the summer; and (3) the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with summer sea surface warming.

Experimental sea slicks: Their practical applications and utilization for basic studies of air-sea interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hühnerfuss, Heinrich; Garrett, W. D.

1981-01-01

Practical applications of organic surface films added to the sea surface date back to ancient times. Aristotle, Plutarch, and Pliny the Elder describe the seaman's practice of calming waves in a storm by pouring oil onto the sea [Scott, 1977]. It was also noted that divers released oil beneath the water surface so that it could rise and spread over the sea surface, thereby suppressing the irritating flicker associated with the passage of light through a rippled surface. From a scientific point of view, Benjamin Franklin was the first to perform experiments with oils on natural waters. His experiment with a `teaspoonful of oil' on Clapham pond in 1773 inspired many investigators to consider sea surface phenomena or to conduct experiments with oil films. This early research has been reviewed by Giles [1969], Giles and Forrester [1970], and Scott [1977]. Franklin's studies with experimental slicks can be regarded as the beginning of surface film chemistry. His speculations on the wave damping influence of oil induced him to perform the first qualitative experiment with artificial sea slicks at Portsmouth (England) in October of 1773. Although the sea was calmed and very few white caps appeared in the oil-covered area, the swell continued through the oiled area to Franklin's great disappointment.

ICESat's Laser Measurements of Polar Ice, Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. J.; Schutz, B.; Abdalati, W.; Abshire, J.; Bentley, C.; Brenner, A.; Bufton, J.; Dezio, J.; Hancock, D.; Harding, D.;

Electromagnetic backscattering from one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface II: Electromagnetic backscattering model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Xie; William, Perrie; Shang-Zhuo, Zhao; He, Fang; Wen-Jin, Yu; Yi-Jun, He

2016-07-01

Sea surface current has a significant influence on electromagnetic (EM) backscattering signals and may constitute a dominant synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging mechanism. An effective EM backscattering model for a one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface is presented in this paper. This model is used to simulate EM backscattering signals from the drifting sea surface. Numerical results show that ocean currents have a significant influence on EM backscattering signals from the sea surface. The normalized radar cross section (NRCS) discrepancies between the model for a coupled wave-current fractal sea surface and the model for an uncoupled fractal sea surface increase with the increase of incidence angle, as well as with increasing ocean currents. Ocean currents that are parallel to the direction of the wave can weaken the EM backscattering signal intensity, while the EM backscattering signal is intensified by ocean currents propagating oppositely to the wave direction. The model presented in this paper can be used to study the SAR imaging mechanism for a drifting sea surface. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41276187), the Global Change Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953901), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, China, the Program for the Innovation Research and Entrepreneurship Team in Jiangsu Province, China, the Canadian Program on Energy Research and Development, and the Canadian World Class Tanker Safety Service Program.

Upwelling Dynamic Based on Satellite and INDESO Data in the Flores Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniawan, Reski; Suriamihardja, D. A.; Hamzah Assegaf, Alimuddin

2018-03-01

Upwelling phenomenon is crucial to be forecasted, mainly concerning the information of potential fishery areas. Utilization of calibrated model for recorded upwelling such as INDESO gives benefit for historical result up to the present time. The aim of this study is to estimate areas and seasons of upwelling occurrences in the Flores Sea using data assimilation of satellite and modeling result. This study uses sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a data from level 3 of MODIS image and sea surface height from satellite Jason-2 monthly for three years (2014-2016) and INDESO model data for sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and chlorophyll-a daily for three years (2014-2016). The upwelling is indicated by declining of sea surface temperature, sea surface height and increasing of chlorophyll-a. Verification is conducted by comparing the model result with recorded MODIS satellite image. The result shows that the area of southern Makassar Strait having occurrences of upwelling phenomenon every year starting in June, extended to July and August. The strongest upwelling occurred in 2015 covering more or less the area of 23,000 km2. The relation of monthly data of satellite has significantly correlated with daily data of INDESO model

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program: Operations and Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreck, M. B.; Nelson, J. A., Jr.; Heim, R.

2015-12-01

The National Weather Service's Alaska Sea Ice Program is designed to service customers and partners operating and planning operations within Alaska waters. The Alaska Sea Ice Program offers daily sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis products. The program also delivers a five day sea ice forecast 3 times each week, provides a 3 month sea ice outlook at the end of each month, and has staff available to respond to sea ice related information inquiries. These analysis and forecast products are utilized by many entities around the state of Alaska and nationally for safety of navigation and community strategic planning. The list of current customers stem from academia and research institutions, to local state and federal agencies, to resupply barges, to coastal subsistence hunters, to gold dredgers, to fisheries, to the general public. Due to a longer sea ice free season over recent years, activity in the waters around Alaska has increased. This has led to a rise in decision support services from the Alaska Sea Ice Program. The ASIP is in constant contact with the National Ice Center as well as the United States Coast Guard (USCG) for safety of navigation. In the past, the ASIP provided briefings to the USCG when in support of search and rescue efforts. Currently, not only does that support remain, but our team is also briefing on sea ice outlooks into the next few months. As traffic in the Arctic increases, the ASIP will be called upon to provide more and more services on varying time scales to meet customer needs. This talk will address the many facets of the current Alaska Sea Ice Program as well as delve into what we see as the future of the ASIP.

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program: Operations, Customer Support & Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R.; Schreck, M. B.

2016-12-01

The National Weather Service's Alaska Sea Ice Program is designed to service customers and partners operating and planning operations within Alaska waters. The Alaska Sea Ice Program offers daily sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis products. The program also delivers a five day sea ice forecast 3 times each week, provides a 3 month sea ice outlook at the end of each month, and has staff available to respond to sea ice related information inquiries. These analysis and forecast products are utilized by many entities around the state of Alaska and nationally for safety of navigation and community strategic planning. The list of current customers stem from academia and research institutions, to local state and federal agencies, to resupply barges, to coastal subsistence hunters, to gold dredgers, to fisheries, to the general public. Due to a longer sea ice free season over recent years, activity in the waters around Alaska has increased. This has led to a rise in decision support services from the Alaska Sea Ice Program. The ASIP is in constant contact with the National Ice Center as well as the United States Coast Guard (USCG) for safety of navigation. In the past, the ASIP provided briefings to the USCG when in support of search and rescue efforts. Currently, not only does that support remain, but our team is also briefing on sea ice outlooks into the next few months. As traffic in the Arctic increases, the ASIP will be called upon to provide more and more services on varying time scales to meet customer needs. This talk will address the many facets of the current Alaska Sea Ice Program as well as delve into what we see as the future of the ASIP.

Implications of fractured Arctic perennial ice cover on thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asplin, Matthew G.; Scharien, Randall; Else, Brent; Howell, Stephen; Barber, David G.; Papakyriakou, Tim; Prinsenberg, Simon

2014-04-01

Decline of the Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent is characterized by large expanses of open water in the Siberian, Laptev, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, and introduces large fetch distances in the Arctic Ocean. Long waves can propagate deep into the pack ice, thereby causing flexural swell and failure of the sea ice. This process shifts the floe size diameter distribution smaller, increases floe surface area, and thereby affects sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The results of Radarsat-2 imagery analysis show that a flexural fracture event which occurred in the Beaufort Sea region on 6 September 2009 affected ˜40,000 km2. Open water fractional area in the area affected initially decreased from 3.7% to 2.7%, but later increased to ˜20% following wind-forced divergence of the ice pack. Energy available for lateral melting was assessed by estimating the change in energy entrainment from longwave and shortwave radiation in the mixed-layer of the ocean following flexural fracture. 11.54 MJ m-2 of additional energy for lateral melting of ice floes was identified in affected areas. The impact of this process in future Arctic sea ice melt seasons was assessed using estimations of earlier occurrences of fracture during the melt season, and is discussed in context with ocean heat fluxes, atmospheric mixing of the ocean mixed layer, and declining sea ice cover. We conclude that this process is an important positive feedback to Arctic sea ice loss, and timing of initiation is critical in how it affects sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

2013-12-01

It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption in polar regions is more than compensated by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. Relationship between global SSH trend over a decade and (A) local SSH change over a decade (m/m). (B) Global SST change over a decade (m/K) (C) Portion of decadal SST change correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (m/K) (D) Portion of decadal SST change not correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

2011-01-01

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

2011-04-27

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Persistent Cold Air Outbreaks over North America Under Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Leung, L. R.; Lu, J.

2014-12-01

This study evaluates the change of cold air outbreaks (CAO) over North America using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most of the North America, the decrease over northwestern U.S. was found to have much smaller magnitude than the surrounding regions. We found statistically significant increase of the sea level pressure over gulf of Alaska, leading to the advection of cold air to northwestern U.S.. By shifting the probability distribution of present temperature towards future warmer conditions, we identified the changes in large scale circulation contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure. Using the high resolution regional climate model results, we found that increases of existing snowpack could potentially trigger the increase of CAO in the near future over the southwestern U.S. and Rocky Mountain through surface albedo effects. By the end of this century, the top 5 most extreme historical CAO events may still occur and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts over North America in particular over northwestern United States.

Sea surface temperature measurements with AIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, H.

2003-01-01

The comparison of global sea surface skin temperature derived from cloud-free AIRS super window channel at 2616 cm-1 (sst2616) with the Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature for September 2002 shows surprisingly small standard deviation of 0.44K.

The UKC2 regional coupled prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, Juan; Lewis, Huw; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Arnold, Alex; Fallmann, Joachim; Martinez de la Torre, Alberto; Blyth, Eleanor; Bricheno, Lucy

2017-04-01

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather through the environment, requires a more integrated approach to forecasting. This approach also delivers research benefits through providing tools with which to explore the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land. This hypothesis is being tested in a UK regional context at km-scale through the UK Environmental Prediction Project. This presentation will provide an introduction to the UKC2 UK Environmental Prediction research system. This incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled (via OASIS3-MCT libraries) at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK and the wider north-west European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a unique new research tool for UK environmental science. The presentation will highlight work undertaken to review and improve the computational cost of running these systems for efficient research application. Research will be presented highlighting case study evaluation on the sensitivity of the ocean and surface waves to the representation of feedbacks to the atmosphere, and on the sensitivity of weather systems and boundary layer cloud development to the exchange of heat and momentum at the ocean surface modified through sea surface temperature and wave-induced roughness. The presentation will discuss plans for future development through UKC3 and beyond.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

High Resolution Tidal Modelling in the Arctic Ocean: Needs and Upcoming Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancet, M.; Andersen, O.; Stenseng, L.; Lyard, F.; Cotton, D.; Benveniste, J.; Schulz, A.

2015-12-01

The Arctic Ocean is a challenging region for tidal modelling, because of its complex and not well-documented bathymetry, together combined with the intermittent presence of sea ice and the fact that the in situ tidal observations are rather scarce at such high latitudes. As a consequence, the accuracy of the global tidal models decreases by several centimetres in the Polar Regions. In particular, it has a large impact on the quality of the satellite altimeter sea surface heights in these regions (ERS1/2, Envisat, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa and the future Sentinel-3 mission). Better knowledge of the tides would improve the quality of the high latitudes altimeter sea surface heights and of all derived products, such as the altimetry-derived geostrophic currents, the mean sea surface and the mean dynamic topography. In addition, accurate tidal models are highly strategic information for ever-growing maritime and industrial activities in this region. NOVELTIS and DTU Space are currently working on the development of a regional, high-resolution tidal atlas in the Arctic Ocean. In particular, this atlas will benefit from the assimilation of the most complete satellite altimetry dataset ever used in this region, including Envisat data up to 82°N and the CryoSat-2 reprocessed data between 82°N and 88°N. The combination of all these satellites will give the best possible coverage of altimetry-derived tidal constituents. The available tide gauge data will also be used either for assimilation or validation. This paper presents the performances of the available global tidal models in the Arctic Ocean and the on-going development of an improved regional tidal atlas in this region.

High resolution tidal modeling in the Arctic Ocean: needs and upcoming developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancet, Mathilde; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Cotton, David; Lyard, Florent; Benveniste, Jerome

2015-04-01

The Arctic Ocean is a challenging region for tidal modeling, because of its complex and not well-documented bathymetry, combined with the intermittent presence of sea ice and the fact that the in situ tidal observations are rather scarce at high latitudes. As a consequence, the accuracy of the global tidal models decreases by several centimeters in the Polar Regions. As a consequence the quality of the satellite altimeter sea surface heights in these regions (ERS1/2, Envisat, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa and the future Sentinel-3 mission) are impacted. Better knowledge of the tides would improve the quality of the high latitudes altimeter sea surface heights and of all derived products, such as the altimetry-derived geostrophic currents, the mean sea surface and the mean dynamic topography. In addition, accurate tidal models are highly strategic information for ever-growing maritime and industrial activities in this region. NOVELTIS and DTU Space are currently working on the development of a regional, high-resolution tidal atlas in the Arctic Ocean. In particular, this atlas will benefit from the assimilation of the most complete satellite altimetry dataset ever used in this region, including Envisat and SARAL/AltiKa data up to 82°N and the CryoSat-2 reprocessed data between 82°N and 88°N. The combination of all these satellites will give the best possible coverage of altimetry-derived tidal constituents. The available tide gauge data will also be used either for assimilation or validation. This paper presents the deficiencies and needs of the global tidal models in the Arctic Ocean as identified using the CryoSat altimetry data, and the on-going work to develop an improved regional tidal atlas in this region.

A new high resolution tidal model in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancet, Mathilde; Andersen, Ole; Lyard, Florent; Cotton, David; Benveniste, Jérôme

2016-04-01

The Arctic Ocean is a challenging region for tidal modeling, because of its complex and not well-documented bathymetry, together combined with the intermittent presence of sea ice and the fact that the in situ tidal observations are scarce at such high latitudes. As a consequence, the accuracy of the global tidal models decreases by several centimeters in the Polar Regions. It has a large impact on the quality of the satellite altimeter sea surface heights in these regions (ERS1/2, Envisat, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa and the future Sentinel-3 mission), but also on the end-users' applications that need accurate tidal information. Better knowledge of the tides will improve the quality of the high latitudes altimeter sea surface heights and of all derived products, such as the altimetry-derived geostrophic currents, the mean sea surface and the mean dynamic topography. In addition, accurate tidal models are highly strategic information for ever-growing maritime and industrial activities in this region. NOVELTIS and DTU Space have recently developed a regional, high-resolution tidal atlas in the Arctic Ocean, in the framework of an extension of the CryoSat Plus for Oceans (CP4O) project funded by ESA (STSE program). In particular, this atlas benefits from the assimilation of the most complete satellite altimetry dataset ever used in this region, including the Envisat data up to 82°N and the CryoSat-2 reprocessed data between 82°N and 88°N. The combination of all these satellites gives the best possible coverage of altimetry-derived tidal constituents. Tide gauge data have also been used either for assimilation or validation. This paper presents the methodology followed to develop the model and the performances of this new regional tidal model in the Arctic Ocean.

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, T.

2015-12-01

As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%).

Space Radar Image of North Sea, Germany

NASA Image and Video Library

1999-05-01

This is an X-band image of an oil slick experiment conducted in the North Sea, Germany. The image is centered at 54.58 degrees north latitude and 7.48 degrees east longitude. This image was acquired by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) aboard the space shuttle Endeavour on October 6, 1994, during the second flight of the spaceborne radar. The experiment was designed to differentiate between petroleum oil spills and natural slicks floating on the sea surface. Two types of petroleum oil and six types of oils resembling natural sea surface slicks were poured on the sea surface from ships and a helicopter just before the space shuttle flew over the region. At the bottom of the image is the Sylt peninsula, a famous holiday resort. Twenty-six gallons (100 liters) of diesel oil was dissipated due to wave action before the shuttle reached the site. The oil spill seen at the uppermost part of the image is about 105 gallons (400 liters) of heavy heating oil and the largest spill is about 58 gallons (220 liters) of oleyl alcohol, resembling a "natural oil" like the remaining five spills used to imitate natural slicks that have occurred offshore from various states. The volume of these other oils spilled on the ocean surface during the five experimental spills varied from 16 gallons to 21 gallons (60 liters to 80 liters). The distance between neighboring spills was about half a mile (800 meters) at the most. The largest slick later thinned out to monomolecular sheets of about 10 microns, which is the dimension of a molecule. Oceanographers found that SIR-C/X-SAR was able to clearly distinguish the oil slicks from algae products dumped nearby. Preliminary indications are that various types of slicks may be distinguished, especially when other radar wavelengths are included in the analysis. Radar imaging of the world's oceans on a continuing basis may allow oceanographers in the future to detect and clean up oil spills much more swiftly than is currently possible. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA01748

Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Lui, Hon-Kit; Hsieh, Chia-Han; Yanagi, Tetsuo; Kosugi, Naohiro; Ishii, Masao; Gong, Gwo-Ching

2017-12-01

Oceans worldwide are undergoing acidification due to the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere1-4. The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time. To elucidate this process, a time-series study at a climatically sensitive region with sufficient duration and resolution is needed. Here we show that deep waters in the Sea of Japan are undergoing reduced ventilation, reducing the pH of seawater. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air-sea CO2 equilibrium. This reduced ventilation may be due to global warming and, as an oceanic microcosm with its own deep- and bottom-water formations, the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.

Gulf of Mexico Air/Sea Interaction: Measurements and Initial Data Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, C.; Huang, C. H.; Roberts, P. T.; Bariteau, L.; Fairall, C. W.; Gibson, W.; Ray, A.

2011-12-01

Corporate, government, and university researchers collaborated to develop an atmospheric boundary layer environmental observations program on an offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The primary goals of this project were to provide data to (1) improve our understanding of boundary layer processes and air-sea interaction over the Gulf of Mexico; (2) improve regional-scale meteorological and air quality modeling; and (3) provide a framework for advanced offshore measurements to support future needs such as emergency response, exploration and lease decisions, wind energy research and development, and meteorological and air quality forecasting. In October 2010, meteorological and oceanographic sensors were deployed for an extended period (approximately 12 months) on a Chevron service platform (ST 52B, 90.5W, 29N) to collect boundary layer and sea surface data sufficient to support these objectives. This project has significant importance given the large industrial presence in the Gulf, sizeable regional population nearby, and the recognized need for precise and timely pollutant forecasts. Observations from this project include surface meteorology; sodar marine boundary layer winds; microwave radiometer profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and liquid water; ceilometer cloud base heights; water temperature and current profiles; sea surface temperature; wave height statistics; downwelling solar and infrared radiation; and air-sea turbulent momentum and heat fluxes. This project resulted in the collection of an unprecedented set of boundary layer measurements over the Gulf of Mexico that capture the range of meteorological and oceanographic interactions and processes that occur over an entire year. This presentation will provide insight into the logistical and scientific issues associated with the deployment and operations of unique measurements in offshore areas and provide results from an initial data analysis of boundary layer processes over the Gulf of Mexico, with a special focus on the relationship among measured and modeled energy fluxes and other oceanographic and atmospheric conditions.

Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Robert P.; Douglas, David C.; Belchansky, Gennady I.; Drobot, Sheldon

2005-01-01

Simulations of future climate suggest that global warming will reduce Arctic snow and ice cover, resulting in decreased surface albedo (reflectivity). Lowering of the surface albedo leads to further warming by increasing solar absorption at the surface. This phenomenon is referred to as “temperature–albedo feedback.” Anticipation of such a feedback is one reason why scientists look to the Arctic for early indications of global warming. Much of the Arctic has warmed significantly. Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased, and sea ice has diminished in area and thickness. As reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2004, the trends are considered to be outside the range of natural variability, implicating global warming as an underlying cause. Changing climatic conditions in the high northern latitudes have influenced biogeochemical cycles on a broad scale. Warming has already affected the sea ice, the tundra, the plants, the animals, and the indigenous populations that depend on them. Changing annual cycles of snow and sea ice also affect sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane), further complicating feedbacks involving the global budgets of these important constituents. For instance, thawing permafrost increases the extent of tundra wetlands and lakes, releasing greater amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Variable sea ice cover may affect the hemispheric carbon budget by altering the ocean–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. There is growing concern that amplification of global warming in the Arctic will have far-reaching effects on lower latitude climate through these feedback mechanisms. Despite the diverse and convincing observational evidence that the Arctic environment is changing, it remains unclear whether these changes are anthropogenically forced or result from natural variations of the climate system. A better understanding of what controls the seasonal distributions of snow and ice is fundamental to the problem.

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Thomas C.; Barnett, Tim P.; Roeckner, Erich; Vonder Haar, Thomas H.

1992-01-01

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Pollution exposure on marine protected areas: A global assessment.

PubMed

Partelow, Stefan; von Wehrden, Henrik; Horn, Olga

2015-11-15

Marine protected areas (MPAs) face many challenges in their aim to effectively conserve marine ecosystems. In this study we analyze the extent of pollution exposure on the global fleet of MPAs. This includes indicators for current and future pollution and the implications for regionally clustered groups of MPAs with similar biophysical characteristics. To cluster MPAs into characteristic signature groups, their bathymetry, baseline biodiversity, distance from shore, mean sea surface temperature and mean sea surface salinity were used. We assess the extent at which each signature group is facing exposure from multiple pollution types. MPA groups experience similar pollution exposure on a regional level. We highlight how the challenges that MPAs face can be addressed through governance at the appropriate scale and design considerations for integrated terrestrial and marine management approaches within regional level networks. Furthermore, we present diagnostic social-ecological indicators for addressing the challenges facing unsuccessful MPAs with practical applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New constraints on the structure and dynamics of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from the joint IPY/Ice Bridge ICECAP aerogeophysical project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Siegert, M. J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Roberts, J. L.; Wright, A.; Warner, R. C.; Holt, J. W.; Young, N. W.; Le Meur, E.; Legresy, B.; Cavitte, M.; Icecap Team

2010-12-01

Ice within marine basins of East Antarctica, and their outlets, represent the ultimate limit on sea level change. The region of East Antarctica between the Ross Sea and Wilkes Land hosts a number of major basin, but has been poorly understood. Long range aerogeophysics from US, Australian and French stations, with significant British and IceBridge support, has, under the banner of the ICECAP project, greatly improved our knowledge of ice thickness, surface elevation, and crustal structure of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, as well as the Totten Glacier, Cook Ice Shelf, and Byrd Glacier. We will discuss the evolution of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, new constraints on the geometry of the major outlet glaciers, as well as our results from surface elevation change measurements over dynamic regions of the ice sheet. We will discuss the implications of our data for the presence of mid Pleistocene ice in central East Antarctica. Future directions for ICECAP will be discussed.

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

Understanding the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands: The Human Dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Denise

2010-05-01

In the 21st century coastal systems are subject to the pressures of centuries of population growth and resource exploitation. In 2003, in the US approximately 153 million people (53 percent of the population) lived in coastal counties, an increase of 33 million people since 1980 and this is expected to increase by approximately 7 million by the year 2008. Eight of the world's top ten largest cities are located at the coast, 44 % of the world's population (more people than inhabited the entire globe in 1950) live within 150 km of the coast and in 2001 over half the world's population lived within 200 km of a coastline. . Increased population density at the coasts often brings pollution and habitat degradation - decreasing the value of many of the resources that initially attract the coastal development - and it also means the effect of sea-level rise on coastal geomorphic systems must be seen in the context of additional human pressures. For global sea-level debate centers on the magnitude and rate of the rise around most of the world; the exception being those areas still experiencing falling sea-levels due to isostatic rebound. Many coastal island states are clearly vulnerable. While the ‘lurid and misleading maps' of the 1980's used by many to indicate areas to be flooded by rising seas in the future, have been replaced by more considered discussion of the response of coastal dynamics to rising seas there is still considerable debate about the amount of sea-level rise shorelines will experience in the 21st century. For coastal wetlands four main sets of physical factors - fine sediment regime; tidal conditions; coastal configuration; and relative sea-level change - define the geomorphic context for coastal marsh development and survival during the 21st century. Each of these factors is influenced by changes in climate and human alterations to coastal and inshore environments. In turn changes in sediment dynamics are mediated by both physical forcing and biotic factors, and plant growth is an additional factor influencing the survival of more organic marshes. Salt marsh surfaces are frequently considered to be in an equilibrium relationship with local mean sea level but the projection of salt marsh sustainability under future climate scenarios is a complex issue and depends on: the relative importance of organic matter to marsh vertical development; the complexities governing organic matter accumulation during rising sea level; the importance of subsurface processes in determining surface elevation change; and the role of storm events and hydrologic changes in controlling sediment deposition, soil conditions and plant growth. The effects of global change, both climate and human induced, on coastal wetlands will be manifest differently among various geomorphic settings but their vulnerability to global change in the 21st century should be taken seriously by coastal managers and policy-makers alike.

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

PubMed

Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael

2013-02-26

Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.

Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

2017-12-01

The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.

In situ observations of Arctic cloud properties across the Beaufort Sea marginal ice zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corr, C.; Moore, R.; Winstead, E.; Thornhill, K. L., II; Crosbie, E.; Ziemba, L. D.; Beyersdorf, A. J.; Chen, G.; Martin, R.; Shook, M.; Corbett, J.; Smith, W. L., Jr.; Anderson, B. E.

2016-12-01

Clouds play an important role in Arctic climate. This is particularly true over the Arctic Ocean where feedbacks between clouds and sea-ice impact the surface radiation budget through modifications of sea-ice extent, ice thickness, cloud base height, and cloud cover. This work summarizes measurements of Arctic cloud properties made aboard the NASA C-130 aircraft over the Beaufort Sea during ARISE (Arctic Radiation - IceBridge Sea&Ice Experiment) in September 2014. The influence of surface-type on cloud properties is also investigated. Specifically, liquid water content (LWC), droplet concentrations, and droplet size distributions are compared for clouds sampled over three distinct regimes in the Beaufort Sea: 1) open water, 2) the marginal ice zone, and 3) sea-ice. Regardless of surface type, nearly all clouds intercepted during ARISE were liquid-phase clouds. However, differences in droplet size distributions and concentrations were evident for the surface types; clouds over the MIZ and sea-ice generally had fewer and larger droplets compared to those over open water. The potential implication these results have for understanding cloud-surface albedo climate feedbacks in Arctic are discussed.

Modelling the thermosteric contribution to global and regional sea-level rise during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singarayer, Joy; Stone, Emma; Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Gregory, Jonathan

2014-05-01

Global sea level during the last interglacial is likely to have been between 5.5 and 9m above present (Dutton and Lambeck, 2012). Recent calculations, taking into account latest NEEM ice core information, suggest that Greenland would probably not have contributed more than 2.2m to this (Stone et al, 2013), implying a considerable contribution from Antarctica. Previous studies have suggested a significant loss from the West Antarctic ice-sheet (e.g. Holden et al, 2010), which could be initiated following a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and resultant warming in the Southern Ocean. Here, model simulations with FAMOUS and HadCM3 have been performed of the last interglacial under various scenarios of reduced Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet configurations, and with and without collapsed AMOC. Thermal expansion and changes in regional density structure (resulting from ocean circulation changes) can also influence sea level, in addition to ice mass effects discussed thus far. The HadCM3 and FAMOUS simulations will be used to estimate the contribution to global and regional sea level change in interglacials from the latter two factors using a similar methodology to the IPCC TAR/AR4 estimations of future sea level rise (Gregory and Lowe, 2000). The HadCM3 and FAMOUS both have a rigid lid in their ocean model, and consequently a fixed ocean volume. Thermal expansion can, however, be calculated as a volume change from in-situ density (a prognostic variable from the model). Relative sea surface topography will then be estimated from surface pressure gradients and changes in atmospheric pressure. Dutton A., and Lambeck K., 2013. Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial. Science, 337, 216-219 Gregory J.M. and Lowe J.A., 2000. Predictions of global and regional sea-level using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment. GRL, 27, 3069-3072 Holden P. et al., 2010. Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials. Clim. Past, 6, 431-443 Stone E.J., et al., 2013. Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621-639

Challenges to estimate surface- and groundwater flow in arid regions: the Dead Sea catchment.

PubMed

Siebert, Christian; Rödiger, Tino; Mallast, Ulf; Gräbe, Agnes; Guttman, Joseph; Laronne, Jonathan B; Storz-Peretz, Yael; Greenman, Anat; Salameh, Elias; Al-Raggad, Marwan; Vachtman, Dina; Zvi, Arie Ben; Ionescu, Danny; Brenner, Asher; Merz, Ralf; Geyer, Stefan

2014-07-01

The overall aim of the this study, which was conducted within the framework of the multilateral IWRM project SUMAR, was to expand the scientific basement to quantify surface- and groundwater fluxes towards the hypersaline Dead Sea. The flux significance for the arid vicinity around the Dead Sea is decisive not only for a sustainable management in terms of water availability for future generations but also for the resilience of the unique ecosystems along its coast. Coping with different challenges interdisciplinary methods like (i) hydrogeochemical fingerprinting, (ii) satellite and airborne-based thermal remote sensing, (iii) direct measurement with gauging station in ephemeral wadis and a first multilateral gauging station at the river Jordan, (iv) hydro-bio-geochemical approach at submarine and shore springs along the Dead Sea and (v) hydro(geo)logical modelling contributed to the overall aim. As primary results, we deduce that the following: (i) Within the drainage basins of the Dead Sea, the total mean annual precipitation amounts to 300 mm a(−1) west and to 179 mm a(−1) east of the lake, respectively. (ii) The total mean annual runoff volumes from side wadis (except the Jordan River) entering the Dead Sea is approximately 58–66 × 10(6) m(3) a(−1) (western wadis: 7–15 × 10(6) m(3) a(−1); eastern wadis: 51 × 10(6) m(3) a(−1)). (iii) The modelled groundwater discharge from the upper Cretaceous aquifers in both flanks of the Dead Sea towards the lake amounts to 177 × 10(6) m(3) a(−1). (iv) An unexpected abundance of life in submarine springs exists, which in turn explains microbial moderated geo-bio-chemical processes in the Dead Sea sediments, affecting the highly variable chemical composition of on- and offshore spring waters.The results of this work show a promising enhancement of describing and modelling the Dead Sea basin as a whole. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unmanned Sea Surface Vehicle (USSV) Motion Data and Refueling Equipment Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

knowledge of on-coming waves and craft controls system elements. The same information could be used to optimize structural design of USSV hull or host...Carderock Division, Detachment Norfolk Code 232- Systems Design &Integration Little Creek Amphibious Base 2600 Tarawa Court, Norfolk, VA. 23521-3239...and USSV speed. The resulting extensive set of motion and positional data will be useful for future system designers for years to come. This work

Ships as future floating farm systems?

PubMed

Moustafa, Khaled

2018-04-03

Environmental and agriculture challenges such as severe drought, desertification, sprawling cities and shrinking arable lands in large regions in the world compel us to think about alternative and sustainable farming systems. Ongoing projects to build floating cities in the sea suggest that building specific ships for farming purposes (as farming ships or farming boats) would also be attainable to introduce new farming surfaces and boost food production worldwide to cope with food insecurity issues.

Observing and modelling phytoplankton community structure in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, David A.; van der Molen, Johan; Hyder, Kieran; Bacon, John; Barciela, Rosa; Creach, Veronique; McEwan, Robert; Ruardij, Piet; Forster, Rodney

2017-03-01

Phytoplankton form the base of the marine food chain, and knowledge of phytoplankton community structure is fundamental when assessing marine biodiversity. Policy makers and other users require information on marine biodiversity and other aspects of the marine environment for the North Sea, a highly productive European shelf sea. This information must come from a combination of observations and models, but currently the coastal ocean is greatly under-sampled for phytoplankton data, and outputs of phytoplankton community structure from models are therefore not yet frequently validated. This study presents a novel set of in situ observations of phytoplankton community structure for the North Sea using accessory pigment analysis. The observations allow a good understanding of the patterns of surface phytoplankton biomass and community structure in the North Sea for the observed months of August 2010 and 2011. Two physical-biogeochemical ocean models, the biogeochemical components of which are different variants of the widely used European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), were then validated against these and other observations. Both models were a good match for sea surface temperature observations, and a reasonable match for remotely sensed ocean colour observations. However, the two models displayed very different phytoplankton community structures, with one better matching the in situ observations than the other. Nonetheless, both models shared some similarities with the observations in terms of spatial features and inter-annual variability. An initial comparison of the formulations and parameterizations of the two models suggests that diversity between the parameter settings of model phytoplankton functional types, along with formulations which promote a greater sensitivity to changes in light and nutrients, is key to capturing the observed phytoplankton community structure. These findings will help inform future model development, which should be coupled with detailed validation studies, in order to help facilitate the wider application of marine biogeochemical modelling to user and policy needs.

Dissolved and particulate trace metals in coastal waters of the Gulf and Western Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, S. W.; Huynh-Ngoc, L.; Fukai, R.

Concentrations of chemical species of selected heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb) were determined in surface waters from a series of coastal sites in Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Sultanate of Oman. Analyses were carried out on bulk sea water samples as well as on suspended particulates by anodic stripping voltammetry. Heavy metal concentrations were relatively low with the exception of some "hot spots" which occurred in the vicinity of industrial and port activities. Average copper levels along the coast of UAE were generally higher than those measured in sea water from either Bahrain of Oman. Waters from the more populated and industrialised northwest coast of Oman were found to contain approximately 3 to 4-fold higher Cd and Zn (pH 4-4.5) concentrations than those from the southern coast, an undeveloped region adjacent to the more open waters of the Arabian Sea. Possible reasons for the observed regional variations in trace metal concentrations in Oman are discussed in terms of natural and anthropogenic input sources. Average concentrations in the Gulf (inside the Strait of Hormuz) were 510 ng 1 -1 (Cu), 340 ng 1 -1 (Zn), 20 ng 1 -1 (Cd), 16 ng 1 -1 (Hg) and 76 ng 1 -1 (Pb); in the western Arabian Sea along the coast of Oman concentrations averaged 290 ng 1 -1 (Cu), 180 ng 1 -1 (Zn), 37 ng 1 -1 (Cd), 11 ng 1 -1 (Hg) and 80 ng 1 -1 (Pb). Ranges of concentrations for these metals in Gulf and western Arabian Sea waters approach those which have been reported for open surface waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea indicating that, in general, the coastal waters of this region are not impacted by metal pollution and that the existing natural levels can be used as a point of reference for future pollutant studies.

The SeaFlux Turbulent Flux Dataset Version 1.0 Documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent; Bogdanoff, Alec S.

2012-01-01

Under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX) Data and Assessment Panel (GDAP), the SeaFlux Project was created to investigate producing a high-resolution satellite-based dataset of surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans. The most current release of the SeaFlux product is Version 1.0; this represents the initial release of turbulent surface heat fluxes, associated near-surface variables including a diurnally varying sea surface temperature.

An alternative to reduction of surface pressure to sea level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deardorff, J. W.

1982-01-01

The pitfalls of the present method of reducing surface pressure to sea level are reviewed, and an alternative, adjusted pressure, P, is proposed. P is obtained from solution of a Poisson equation over a continental region, using the simplest boundary condition along the perimeter or coastline where P equals the sea level pressure. The use of P would avoid the empiricisms and disadvantages of pressure reduction to sea level, and would produce surface pressure charts which depict the true geostrophic wind at the surface.

Visible and Thermal Imaging of Sea Ice and Open Water from Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness Flights

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

dropsondes, micro- aircraft), cloud top/base heights Arctic Ocean Surface Temperature project Steele Buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity...Colón & Vancas (NIC) Drop buoys for SLP , temperature and surface velocity Waves & Fetch in the MIZ Thompson SWIFTS buoys measuring wave energy...Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, FSD= Floe Size Distribution, SIC=Sea Ice Concentration

An atlas of monthly mean distributions of GEOSAT sea surface height, SSMI surface wind speed, AVHRR/2 sea surface temperature, and ECMWF surface wind components during 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Zlotnicki, V.; Newman, J.; Brown, O.; Wentz, F.

1991-01-01

Monthly mean global distributions for 1988 are presented with a common color scale and geographical map. Distributions are included for sea surface height variation estimated from GEOSAT; surface wind speed estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft; sea surface temperature estimated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on NOAA spacecrafts; and the Cartesian components of the 10m height wind vector computed by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Charts of monthly mean value, sampling distribution, and standard deviation value are displayed. Annual mean distributions are displayed.

The Impact of Moisture Intrusions from Lower Latitudes on Arctic Net Surface Radiative Fluxes and Sea Ice Growth in Fall and Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegyi, B. M.; Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

The fall and winter seasons mark an important period in the evolution of Arctic sea ice, where energy is transferred away from the surface to facilitate the cooling of the surface and the growth of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. Climatologically, these seasons are characterized by distinct periods of increased and reduced surface cooling and sea ice growth. Periods of reduced sea ice growth and surface cooling are associated with cloudy conditions and the transport of warm and moist air from lower latitudes, termed moisture intrusions. In the research presented, we explore the regional and Arctic-wide impact of moisture intrusions on the surface net radiative fluxes and sea ice growth for each fall and winter season from 2000/01-2015/16, utilizing MERRA2 reanalysis data, PIOMAS sea ice thickness data, and daily CERES radiative flux data. Consistent with previous studies, we find that positive anomalies in downwelling longwave surface flux are associated with increased temperature and water vapor content in the atmospheric column contained within the moisture intrusions. Interestingly, there are periods of increased downwelling LW flux anomalies that persist for one week or longer (i.e. longer than synoptic timescales) that are associated with persistent poleward flux of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. These persistent anomalies significantly reduce the regional growth of Arctic sea ice, and may in part explain the interannual variability of fall and winter Arctic sea ice growth.

Potential changes in benthic macrofaunal distributions from the English Channel simulated under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rombouts, Isabelle; Beaugrand, Grégory; Dauvin, Jean-Claude

2012-03-01

Climate-induced changes in the distribution of species are likely to affect the functioning and diversity of marine ecosystems. Therefore, in economic and ecological important areas, such as the English Channel, projections of the future distributions of key species under changing environmental conditions are urgently needed. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been applied successfully to determine potential distributions of species based on the information of the environmental niche of a species (sensu Hutchinson). In this study, the niches of two commercially exploited benthic species, Pecten maximus and Glycymeris glycymeris, and two ecologically important species, Abra alba and Ophelia borealis were derived using four contemporary hydrographic variables, i.e. sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, water depth and sediment type. Consequently, using these ecological envelopes, the Non-Parametric Probalistic Ecological Niche model (NPPEN) was applied to calculate contemporary probabilities of occurrence for each species in the North East Atlantic and to predict potential re-distributions under the climate change scenario A2 for two time periods 2050-2059 and 2090-2099. Results show general northern displacements of the four benthic species from the English Channel into the North Sea and southern Norwegian coast. The projections mostly indicate a reduction of suitable habitat for benthic species with a notable disappearance of their distributions in the English Channel, except for A. alba. However, interpretations should be treated with caution since many uncertainties and assumptions are attached to ecological niche models in general. Furthermore, opening up potential habitats for benthic species does not necessarily imply that the species will actually occupy these sites in the future. The displacement and colonisation success of species are a function of many other non-climatic factors such as species life histories, dispersal abilities, adaptability and community interactions.

Observing the seasonal cycle of the upper ocean in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, with autonomous profiling floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, D. F.; Springer, S. R.; Padman, L.; Fricker, H. A.; Bell, R. E.

2017-12-01

The upper layers of the Southern Ocean where it meets the Antarctic ice sheet undergoes a large seasonal cycle controlled by surface radiation and by freshwater fluxes, both of which are strongly influenced by sea ice. In regions where seasonal sea ice and icebergs limit use of ice-tethered profilers and conventional moorings, autonomous profiling floats can sample the upper ocean. The deployment of seven Apex floats (by sea) and six ALAMO floats (by air) provides unique upper ocean hydrographic data in the Ross Sea close to the Ross Ice Shelf front. A novel choice of mission parameters - setting parking depth deeper than the seabed - limits their drift, allowing us to deploy the floats close to the ice shelf front, while sea ice avoidance algorithms allow the floats to to sample through winter under sea ice. Hydrographic profiles show the detailed development of the seasonal mixed layer close to the Ross front, and interannual variability of the seasonal mixed layer and deeper water masses on the central Ross Sea continental shelf. After the sea ice breakup in spring, a warm and fresh surface mixed layer develops, further warming and deepening throughout the summer. The mixed layer deepens, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0ºC in mid-February. By March, the surface energy budget becomes negative and sea ice begins to form, creating a cold, saline and dense surface layer. Once these processes overcome the stable summer stratification, convection erodes the surface mixed layer, mixing some heat downwards to deeper layers. There is considerable interannual variability in the evolution and strength of the surface mixed layer: summers with shorter ice-free periods result in a cooler and shallower surface mixed layer, which accumulates less heat than the summers with longer ice-free periods. Early ice breakup occurred in all floats in 2016/17 summer, enhancing the absorbed solar flux leading to a warmer surface mixed layer. Together, these unique measurements from autonomous profilers provide insight into the hydrographic state of the Ross Sea at the start of the spring period of sea-ice breakup, and how ocean mixing and sea ice interact to initiate the summer open-water season.

The "Physical feedbacks of Arctic PBL, Sea ice, Cloud and AerosoL (PASCAL)" campaign during the Arctic POLARSTERN expedition PS106 in spring 2017.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macke, A.

2017-12-01

The Polar regions are important components in the global climate system. The widespread surface snow and ice cover strongly impacts the surface energy budget, which is tightly coupled to global atmospheric and oceanic circulations. The coupling of sea ice, clouds and aerosol in the transition zone between Open Ocean and sea ice is the focus of the PASCAL investigations to improve our understanding of the recent dramatic reduction in Arctic sea-ice. A large variety of active/passive remote sensing, in-situ-aerosol observation, and spectral irradiance measurements have been obtained during the German research icebreaker POLARSTERN expedition PS106, and provided detailed information on the atmospheric spatiotemporal structure, aerosol and cloud chemical and microphysical properties as well as the resulting surface radiation budget. Nearly identical measurements at the AWIPEV Base (German - French Research Base) in Ny-Ålesund close to the Open Ocean and collocated airborne activities of the POLAR 5 and POLAR 6 AWI aircraft in the framework of the ACLOUD project have been carried out in parallel. The airborne observations have been supplemented by observations of the boundary layer structure (mean and turbulent quantities) from a tethered balloon reaching up to 1500 m, which was operated at an ice floe station nearby POLARSTERN for two weeks. All observational activities together with intense modelling at various scales are part of the German Collaborative Research Cluster TR 172 "Arctic Amplification" that aims to provide an unprecedented picture of the complex Arctic weather and climate system. The presentation provides an overview of the measurements on-board POLARSTERN and on the ice floe station during PASCAL from May 24 to July 21 2017. We conclude how these and future similar measurements during the one-year ice drift of POLARSTERN in the framework of MOSAiC help to reduce uncertainties in Arctic aerosol-cloud interaction, cloud radiative forcing, and surface/atmosphere feedback mechanisms.

Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

2016-12-01

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

Copper in the sediment and sea surface microlayer near a fallowed, open-net fish farm.

PubMed

Loucks, Ronald H; Smith, Ruth E; Fisher, Clyde V; Fisher, E Brian

2012-09-01

Sediment and sea surface microlayer samples near an open-net salmon farm in Nova Scotia, were analysed for copper. Copper is a constituent of the feed and is an active ingredient of anti-foulants. The salmon farm was placed in fallow after 15 years of production. Sampling was pursued over 27 months. Elevated copper concentrations in the sediments indicated the farm site as a source. Bubble flotation due to gas-emitting sediments from eutrophication is a likely process for accumulating copper in the sea surface microlayer at enriched concentrations. Elevated and enriched concentrations in the sea surface microlayer over distance from the farm site led, as a result of wind-drift, to an enlarged farm footprint. The levels of copper in both sediments and sea surface microlayer exceeded guidelines for protection of marine life. Over the 27 months period, copper levels persisted in the sediments and decreased gradually in the sea surface microlayer. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radar sea reflection for low-e targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, Winston C.; Groves, Gordon W.

1998-09-01

Modeling radar signal reflection from a wavy sea surface uses a realistic characteristic of the large surface features and parameterizes the effect of the small roughness elements. Representation of the reflection coefficient at each point of the sea surface as a function of the Specular Deviation Angle is, to our knowledge, a novel approach. The objective is to achieve enough simplification and retain enough fidelity to obtain a practical multipath model. The 'specular deviation angle' as used in this investigation is defined and explained. Being a function of the sea elevations, which are stochastic in nature, this quantity is also random and has a probability density function. This density function depends on the relative geometry of the antenna and target positions, and together with the beam- broadening effect of the small surface ripples determined the reflectivity of the sea surface at each point. The probability density function of the specular deviation angle is derived. The distribution of the specular deviation angel as function of position on the mean sea surface is described.

Sun-stirred Kraken Mare: Circulation in Titan's seas induced by solar heating and methane precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, T.; Lorenz, R. D.

2015-10-01

Density-driven circulation in Titan's seas forced by solar heating and methane evaporation/precipitation is simulated by an ocean circulation model. If the sea is transparent to sunlight, solar heating can induce anti-clockwise gyres near the sea surface and clockwise gyres near the sea bottom. The gyres are in geostrophic balance between the radially symmetric pressure gradient force and Coriolis force. If instead the sea is turbid and most sunlight is absorbed near the sea surface, the sea gets stratified in warm seasons and the circulation remains weak. Strong summer precipitation at high latitudes causes compositional stratification and increase of the nearsurface methane mole fraction towards the north pole. The resultant latitudinal density contrast drives a meridional overturning with equatorward currents near the sea surface and poleward currents near the sea bottom. Weak precipitation induces gyres rather than meridional overturning.

Modeling of Greenland outlet glaciers response to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, J.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) quadrupled, resulting in 25% of the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Increased mass loss of the GIS is caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and by increased subglacial, meltwater discharge. Yet, ice-ocean processes are not properly represented in contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet models used to project future changes in the GIS. In this work, we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional (depth- and width- integrated) ice flow model for several representative outlet glaciers in Greenland. We investigate the dynamic response of the coupled ice-flow plume model to scenarios of future climate change. In particular, we examine the transient response of the outlet glaciers to projected changes in surface melting, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge. With our modeling approach we quantify the amount of the surface and submarine melting and the resulting retreat and mass loss for each individual glacier for the next 100 years.

Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

The Relationship Between Arctic Sea Ice Albedo and the Geophysical Parameters of the Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihelä, A.

2015-12-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating. Remote sensing observations have also shown that the mean albedo of the remaining ice cover is decreasing on decadal time scales, albeit with significant annual variability (Riihelä et al., 2013, Pistone et al., 2014). Attribution of the albedo decrease between its different drivers, such as decreasing ice concentration and enhanced surface melt of the ice, remains an important research question for the forecasting of future conditions of the ice cover. A necessary step towards this goal is understanding the relationships between Arctic sea ice albedo and the geophysical parameters of the ice cover. Particularly the question of the relationship between sea ice albedo and ice age is both interesting and not widely studied. The recent changes in the Arctic sea ice zone have led to a substantial decrease of its multi-year sea ice, as old ice melts and is replaced by first-year ice during the next freezing season. It is generally known that younger sea ice tends to have a lower albedo than older ice because of several reasons, such as wetter snow cover and enhanced melt ponding. However, the quantitative correlation between sea ice age and sea ice albedo has not been extensively studied to date, excepting in-situ measurement based studies which are, by necessity, focused on a limited area of the Arctic Ocean (Perovich and Polashenski, 2012).In this study, I analyze the dependencies of Arctic sea ice albedo relative to the geophysical parameters of the ice field. I use remote sensing datasets such as the CM SAF CLARA-A1 (Karlsson et al., 2013) and the NASA MeaSUREs (Anderson et al., 2014) as data sources for the analysis. The studied period is 1982-2009. The datasets are spatiotemporally collocated and analysed. The changes in sea ice albedo as a function of sea ice age are presented for the whole Arctic Ocean and for potentially interesting marginal sea cases. This allows us to see if the the albedo of the older sea ice in the central parts of the Arctic Ocean is resistant to the decreasing overall trend.A similar analysis is also extended to ice concentration, melt season length and other appropriate parameters describing the surface conditions. The results of the analyses are summed up to provide an assessment of the relative impact strengths of the ice field parameters on the albedo.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Low-Frequency Surface Backscattering Strengths Measured in the Critical Sea Test Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-19

Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC 20375-5320 NRL/MR/7160--17-9702 Low-Frequency Surface Backscattering Strengths Measured in the Critical Sea ...LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Low-Frequency Surface Backscattering Strengths Measured in the Critical Sea Test Experiments Roger C. Gauss1 and Joseph M...significantly- updated results from 55 broadband SUS SSS measurements in 6 Critical Sea Test (CST) experiments. Since the time of the previously

Experimental Sea Slicks in the Marsen (Maritime Remote Sensing) Exercise.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-30

Experimental slicks with various surface properties were generated in the North Sea as part of the MARSEN (Maritime Remote Sensing ) exercise. The one...with remote sensing instrumentation. Because of the numerous effects of surface films on air-sea interfacial processes, these experiments were designed...information was obtained on the influence of sea surface films on the interpretation of signals received by remote sensing systems. Criteria for the

Utilizing the NASA and NOAA Joint Ocean Surface Topography Mission to Assess Patterns and Trends in Sea-Surface Height in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzgerald, S. S.; Walker, K. A.; Courtright, A. B.; Young, I. J.

2017-12-01

The United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are home to a population of low-lying coral atolls which are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise. Coastal infrastructure like groundwater reservoirs, harbor operations, and sewage systems, as well as natural coastal features such as reefs and beach ecosystems, are most vulnerable during inundation events. These Pacific Islanders face increasing hazards as coastal flooding infiltrates freshwater resources and may even lead to displacement. The two main components of inundation include tidal fluctuations and sea level anomalies; however, low-lying atolls are also vulnerable to the additional influence of waves. This study created a climatology of significant wave height in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and incorporated this dataset with tides and sea level anomalies to create a novel approach to assessing inundation flood risk in the RMI. The risk metric was applied to the RMI as a study site with the goal of assessing wider-scale applicability across the rest of the USAPI. The inclusion of wave height and wave direction as a crucial component of the risk metric will better inform USAPI coastal-managers for future inundation events and disaster preparedness. In addition to the risk metric, a wave-rose atlas was created for decision-makers in the RMI. This study highlights the often-overlooked region of the Pacific and demonstrates the application of the risk metric to specific examples in the RMI.

Biogeochemical cycling in the Bering Sea over the onset of major Northern Hemisphere Glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Pike, Jennifer

2016-09-01

The Bering Sea is one of the most biologically productive regions in the marine system and plays a key role in regulating the flow of waters to the Arctic Ocean and into the subarctic North Pacific Ocean. Cores from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 323 to the Bering Sea provide the first opportunity to obtain reconstructions from the region that extend back to the Pliocene. Previous research at Bowers Ridge, south Bering Sea, has revealed stable levels of siliceous productivity over the onset of major Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) (circa 2.85-2.73 Ma). However, diatom silica isotope records of oxygen (δ18Odiatom) and silicon (δ30Sidiatom) presented here demonstrate that this interval was associated with a progressive increase in the supply of silicic acid to the region, superimposed on shift to a more dynamic environment characterized by colder temperatures and increased sea ice. This concluded at 2.58 Ma with a sharp increase in diatom productivity, further increases in photic zone nutrient availability and a permanent shift to colder sea surface conditions. These transitions are suggested to reflect a gradually more intense nutrient leakage from the subarctic northwest Pacific Ocean, with increases in productivity further aided by increased sea ice- and wind-driven mixing in the Bering Sea. In suggesting a linkage in biogeochemical cycling between the south Bering Sea and subarctic Northwest Pacific Ocean, mainly via the Kamchatka Strait, this work highlights the need to consider the interconnectivity of these two systems when future reconstructions are carried out in the region.

Enhanced Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Relation to Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Perez, Gay Jane P.; Stock, Larry V.

2015-01-01

Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Visayan Islands in the Philippines on November 8, 2013 was recorded as the strongest typhoon ever-observed using satellite data. Typhoons in the region usually originate from the mid-Pacific region that includes the Warm Pool, which is regarded as the warmest ocean surface region globally. Two study areas were considered: one in the Warm Pool Region and the other in the West Pacific Region near the Philippines. Among the most important factors that affect the strength of a typhoon are sea surface temperature (SST) and water vapor. It is remarkable that in November 2013 the average SST in the Warm Pool Region was the highest observed during the 1981 to 2014 period while that of the West Pacific Region was among the highest as well. Moreover, the increasing trend in SST was around 0.20C per decade in the warm pool region and even higher at 0.23C per decade in the West Pacific region. The yearly minimum SST has also been increasing suggesting that the temperature of the ocean mixed layer is also increasing. Further analysis indicated that water vapor, clouds, winds and sea level pressure for the same period did not reveal strong signals associated with the 2013 event. The SST is shown to be well-correlated with wind strength of historically strong typhoons in the country and the observed trends in SST suggest that extremely destructive typhoons like Haiyan are likely to occur in the future.

The vertical correction of point cloud strips performed over the coastal zone of changing sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasińska-Kolyszko, Ewa; Furmańczyk, Kazimierz

2017-10-01

The main principle of LIDAR is to measure the accurate time of the laser pulses sent from the system to the target surface. In the operation, laser pulses gradually scan the water surface and in combination with aircraft speed they should perform almost simultaneous soundings of each strip. Vectors sent from aircraft to the Sea are linked to the position of the aircraft. Coordinates of the points - X, Y, Z, are calculated at the time of each measurement. LIDAR crosses the surface of the sea while other impulses pass through the water column and, depending on the depth of the water, reflect from the seabed. Optical receiver on board of the aircraft detects pulse reflections from the seabed and sea surface. On the tidal water basins lidar strips must be adjusted by the changes in sea level. The operation should be reduced to a few hours during low water level. Typically, a surface of 20 to 30 km2 should be covered in an hour. The Baltic Sea is an inland sea, and the surveyed area is located in its South - western part, where meteorological and hydrological conditions affect the sea level changes in a short period of time. A lidar measurement of sea surface, that was done within 2 days, in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea and the sea level measured 6 times a day at 8, 12, 16, 20, 00, 04 by a water gauge located in the port of Dziwnów (Poland) were used for this study. On the basis of the lidar data, strips were compared with each other. Calculation of time measurement was made for each single line separately. Profiles showing the variability of sea level for each neighboring and overlapping strips were generated. Differences were calculated changes in sea level were identified and on such basis, an adjustment was possible to perform. Microstation software and terrasolid application were used during the research. The latter allowed automatically and manual classification of the point cloud. A sea surface class was distinguished that way. Point cloud was adjusted to flight lines in terms of time and then compared.

Estimation of the Ocean Skin Temperature using the NASA GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Akella, Santha; Todling, Ricardo; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This report documents the status of the development of a sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Version-5 atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). Its implementation is part of the steps being taken toward the development of an integrated earth system analysis. Currently, GEOS-ADAS SST is a bulk ocean temperature (from ocean boundary conditions), and is almost identical to the skin sea surface temperature. Here we describe changes to the atmosphere-ocean interface layer of the GEOS-atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to include near surface diurnal warming and cool-skin effects. We also added SST relevant Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations to the GEOS-ADAS observing system. We provide a detailed description of our analysis of these observations, along with the modifications to the interface between the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model, gridpoint statistical interpolation-based atmospheric analysis and the community radiative transfer model. Our experiments (with and without these changes) show improved assimilation of satellite radiance observations. We obtained a closer fit to withheld, in-situ buoys measuring near-surface SST. Evaluation of forecast skill scores corroborate improvements seen in the observation fits. Along with a discussion of our results, we also include directions for future work.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the

Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2011-12-01

The full Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled model Elmer/Ice is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Elmer/Ice employs the finite element method to solve the full Stokes equations, the temperature evolution equation and the evolution equation of the free surface. The general framework of this modeling effort is a contribution to the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) assessment project, a community-organized effort to estimate the likely range of ice sheet contributions to sea level rise over the next few hundred years (http://tinyurl.com/srise-lanl, http://tinyurl.com/srise-umt). The present geometry (surface and basal topographies) is derived from data where the basal topography was created with the preservation of the troughs at the Jakobshavn Ice Stream, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glaciers. A mesh of the computational domain is created using an initial footprint which contains elements of 5 km horizontal resolution and to limit the number elements on the footprint while maximizing the spatial resolution, an anisotropic mesh adaptation scheme is employed based on the Hessian matrix of the observed surface velocities. The adaptation is carried out with the tool YAMS and the final footprint is vertically extruded to form a 3D mesh of 320880 elements with 17 equidistant, terrain-following layers. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations employs direct solvers with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is given by data and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. Results for the SeaRISE 2011 sensitivity experiments are presented so that six different experiments have been conducted, grouped in two sets. The Set C (three experiments) applies a change to the surface precipitation and temperature and the set S (three experiments) applies an amplification factor to change the basal sliding velocity. The experiments are compared to a constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 100 years holding the climate constant to its present state. The experiments with the amplification factor (Set S) show high sensitivities. Relative to the control run, the scenario with an amplification factor of 3x applied to the sliding velocity produces a Greenland contribution to sea level rise of ~25 cm. An amplification factor of 2.5x produces a contribution of ~16 cm and an amplification factor 2x produces a contribution of ~9 cm. The experiments with the changes to the surface precipitation and temperature (set C) show a contribution to sea level rise of ~4 cm when a factor 1x is applied to the temperature and precipitation anomalies. A factor 1.5x produces a sea level rise of ~8 cm and a factor 2x produces a sea level rise of ~12 cm.

Inland sea as a unit for environmental history: East Asian inland seas from prehistory to future.

PubMed

Lindstrom, Kati; Uchiyama, Junzo

2012-04-01

The boundaries of landscape policies often coincide with political or economic boundaries, thus creating a situation where a unit of landscape protection or management reflects more its present political status than its historico-geographical situation, its historical function and formation. At the same time, it is evident that no unit can exist independently of the context that has given birth to it and that environmental protection in isolated units cannot be very effective. The present paper will discuss inland sea as a landscape unit from prehistory to modern days and its implications for future landscape planning, using EastAsian inland sea (Japan Sea and East China Sea) rim as an example. Historically an area of active communication, EastAsian inland sea rim has become a politically very sharply divided area. The authors will bring examples to demonstrate how cultural communication on the inland sea level has influenced the formation of several landscape features that are now targets for local or national landscape protection programs, and how a unified view could benefit the future of landscape policies in the whole region.

A study of the dynamics of droughts in Northern Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Moura, A. D.

1980-01-01

The monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Altantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations for 25 years (1948-1972) were examined. It is found that the most severe drought events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm sea surface temperature anomalies over north and cold sea surface temperature anomalies over south tropical Atlantic. Simultaneous occurrences of warm sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg N, 45 deg W and cold sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg S, 5 deg W were always associated with negative anomalies of rainfall, and vice versa. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally controlled and thermally driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere.

Seasonal signatures in SFG vibrational spectra of the sea surface nanolayer at Boknis Eck Time Series Station (SW Baltic Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laß, K.; Bange, H. W.; Friedrichs, G.

2013-02-01

The very thin sea surface nanolayer on top of the sea surface microlayer, sometimes just one monomolecular layer thick, forms the interface between ocean and atmosphere. Due to the small dimension and tiny amount of substance, knowledge about the development of the layer in the course of the year is scarce. In this work, the sea surface nanolayer at Boknis Eck Time Series Station (BE), southwestern Baltic Sea, has been investigated over a period of three and a half years. Surface water samples were taken monthly by screen sampling and were analyzed in terms of organic content and composition by sum frequency generation spectroscopy, which is specifically sensitive to interfacial layers. A yearly periodicity has been observed with a pronounced abundance of sea surface nanolayer material (such as carbohydrate-rich material) during the summer months. On the basis of our results we conclude that the abundance of organic material in the nanolayer at Boknis Eck is not directly related to phytoplankton abundance. We suggest that indeed sloppy feeding of zooplankton together with photochemical and/or microbial processing of organic precursor compounds are responsible for the pronounced seasonality.

Seasonal signatures in SFG vibrational spectra of the sea surface nanolayer at Boknis Eck Time Series Station (SW Baltic Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laß, K.; Bange, H. W.; Friedrichs, G.

2013-08-01

The very thin sea surface nanolayer on top of the sea surface microlayer, sometimes just one monomolecular layer thick, forms the interface between ocean and atmosphere. Due to the small dimension and tiny amount of substance, knowledge about the development of the layer in the course of the year is scarce. In this work, the sea surface nanolayer at Boknis Eck Time Series Station (BE), southwestern Baltic Sea, has been investigated over a period of three and a half years. Surface water samples were taken monthly by screen sampling and were analyzed in terms of organic content and composition by sum frequency generation spectroscopy, which is specifically sensitive to interfacial layers. A yearly periodicity has been observed with a pronounced abundance of sea surface nanolayer material (such as carbohydrate-rich material) during the summer months. On the basis of our results we conclude that the abundance of organic material in the nanolayer at Boknis Eck is not directly related to phytoplankton abundance alone. We speculate that indeed sloppy feeding of zooplankton together with photochemical and/or microbial processing of organic precursor compounds is responsible for the pronounced seasonality.

Predicting the Turbulent Air-Sea Surface Fluxes, Including Spray Effects, from Weak to Strong Winds

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

almost complete decoupling of the wind field from the sea surface . As a result of the weak surface stress, the flow becomes almost free from the...shore flow . In turn, wave growth and the associated surface roughness (z0) are limited. Consequently, the stability increases further in a...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Predicting the Turbulent Air-Sea Surface Fluxes

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Equatorial oceanography. [review of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Sarachik, E. S.

1983-01-01

United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Randerson, J.T.; Liu, H.; Flanner, M.G.; Chambers, S.D.; Jin, Y.; Hess, P.G.; Pfister, G.; Mack, M.C.; Treseder, K.K.; Welp, L.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Harden, J.W.; Goulden, M.L.; Lyons, E.; Neff, J.C.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Zender, C.S.

2006-01-01

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ?? 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 ?? 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

PubMed

Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

2006-11-17

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in Regional Seas: the Aegean Sea example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nittis, K.; Perivoliotis, L.; Zervakis, V.; Papadopoulos, A.; Tziavos, C.

2003-04-01

The increasing economic activities in the coastal zone and the associated pressure on the marine environment have raised the interest on monitoring systems able to provide supporting information for its effective management and protection. Such an integrated monitoring, forecasting and information system is being developed during the past years in the Aegean Sea. Its main component is the POSEIDON network that provides real-time data for meteorological and surface oceanographic parameters (waves, currents, hydrological and biochemical data) from 11 fixed oceanographic buoys. The numerical forecasting system is composed by an ETA atmospheric model, a WAM wave model and a POM hydrodynamic model that provide every day 72 hours forecasts. The system is operational since May 2000 and its products are published through Internet while a sub-set is also available through cellular telephony. New type of observing platforms will be available in the near future through a number of EU funded research projects. The Mediterranean Moored Multi-sensor Array (M3A) that was developed for the needs of the Mediterranean Forecasting System and was tested during 2000-2001 will be operational in 2004 during the MFSTEP project. The M3A system incorporates sensors for optical and chemical measurements (Oxygen, Turbidity, Chlorophyll-a, Nutrients and PAR) in the euphotic zone (0-100m) together with sensors for physical parameters (Temperature, Salinity, Current speed and direction) at the 0-500m layer. A Ferry-Box system will also operate during 2004 in the southern Aegean Sea, providing surface data for physical and bio-chemical properties. The ongoing modeling efforts include coupling with larger scale circulation models of the Mediterranean, high-resolution downscaling to coastal areas of the Aegean Sea and development of multi-variate data assimilation methods.

Modeling a Typical Winter-time Dust Event over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalenderski, S.; Stenchikov, G.; Zhao, Chun

2013-02-20

We used WRF-Chem, a regional meteorological model coupled with an aerosol-chemistry component, to simulate various aspects of the dust phenomena over the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea during a typical winter-time dust event that occurred in January 2009. The model predicted that the total amount of emitted dust was 18.3 Tg for the entire dust outburst period and that the two maximum daily rates were ~2.4 Tg/day and ~1.5 Tg/day, corresponding to two periods with the highest aerosol optical depth that were well captured by ground- and satellite-based observations. The model predicted that the dust plume was thick, extensive, andmore » mixed in a deep boundary layer at an altitude of 3-4 km. Its spatial distribution was modeled to be consistent with typical spatial patterns of dust emissions. We utilized MODIS-Aqua and Solar Village AERONET measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) to evaluate the radiative impact of aerosols. Our results clearly indicated that the presence of dust particles in the atmosphere caused a significant reduction in the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dust event. We also found that dust aerosols have significant impact on the energy and nutrient balances of the Red Sea. Our results showed that the simulated cooling under the dust plume reached 100 W/m2, which could have profound effects on both the sea surface temperature and circulation. Further analysis of dust generation and its spatial and temporal variability is extremely important for future projections and for better understanding of the climate and ecological history of the Red Sea.« less

How Will Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Change in an Ice-Free Arctic Summer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilgen, Anina; Katty Huang, Wan Ting; Ickes, Luisa; Lohmann, Ulrike

2016-04-01

Future temperatures in the Arctic are expected to increase more than the global mean temperature, which will lead to a pronounced retreat in Arctic sea ice. Before mid-century, most sea ice will likely have vanished in late Arctic summers. This will allow ships to cruise in the Arctic Ocean, e.g. to shorten their transport passage or to extract oil. Since both ships and open water emit aerosol particles and precursors, Arctic clouds and radiation may be affected via aerosol-cloud and cloud-radiation interactions. The change in radiation feeds back on temperature and sea ice retreat. In addition to aerosol particles, also the temperature and the open ocean as a humidity source should have a strong effect on clouds. The main goal of this study is to assess the impact of sea ice retreat on the Arctic climate with focus on aerosol emissions and cloud properties. To this purpose, we conducted ensemble runs with the global climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 under present-day and future (2050) conditions. ECHAM6-HAM2 was coupled with a mixed layer ocean model, which includes a sea ice model. To estimate Arctic aerosol emissions from ships, we used an elaborated ship emission inventory (Peters et al. 2011); changes in aerosol emissions from the ocean are calculated online. Preliminary results show that the sea salt aerosol and the dimethyl sulfide burdens over the Arctic Ocean significantly increase. While the ice water path decreases, the total water path increases. Due to the decrease in surface albedo, the cooling effect of the Arctic clouds becomes more important in 2050. Enhanced Arctic shipping has only a very small impact. The increase in the aersol burden due to shipping is less pronounced than the increase due to natural emissions even if the ship emissions are increased by a factor of ten. Hence, there is hardly an effect on clouds and radiation caused by shipping. References Peters et al. (2011), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5305-5320

Retrospective analysis of seasonal ocean growth rates of two sea winter Atlantic Salmon in eastern Maine using historic scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izzo, Lisa K.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Substantial declines of anadromous Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar have occurred throughout its range, with many populations at the southern extent of the distribution currently extirpated or endangered. While both one sea winter (1SW) and two sea winter (2SW) spawner numbers for the North American stocks have declined since the 1950s, the decline has been most severe in 2SW spawners. The first months at sea are considered a period of high mortality. However, early ocean mortality alone cannot explain the more pronounced decline of 2SW spawners, suggesting that the second year at sea may be more critical than previously thought. Atlantic Salmon scales collected by anglers and the state agency from 1946 to 2013 from five rivers in eastern Maine were used to estimate smolt age and ocean age of returning adults. Additionally, seasonal growth rates of maiden 2SW spawners were estimated using intercirculi measurements and linear back-calculation methods. Generalized linear mixed models (Gaussian family, log link function) were used to investigate the influence of average sea surface temperature, accumulated thermal units, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation indices, smolt age, smolt length, postsmolt growth, and river of origin on growth rate during the oceanic migration of North American Atlantic Salmon. Results suggest that different factors influence salmon growth throughout their oceanic migration, and previous growth can be a strong predictor of future size. Growth was negatively impacted by the phase of the AMO, which has been linked to salmon abundance trends, in early spring following the postsmolt period. This is likely when the 1SW and 2SW stock components separate, and our results suggest that this period may be of interest in future work examining the disproportionate decline in 2SW spawners.

Oceanic influence on the precipitation in Venezuela under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tim, Nele; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys

2016-07-01

The Pacific and Atlantic oceanic influences on observational rainfall data from weather stations over Venezuela are analyzed using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) executed in the Climate Predictability Tool. CCA is further conducted on rainfall and sea surface temperature data obtained from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for historical (1951-2010) and future (2041-2100) periods. Four oceanic regions (North Tropical Atlantic, Niño3, Niño3.4 and an area which includes all previous three) are used for the CCA using data from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data set, while precipitation data from two regions: a coastal region and an inland region are used in the analysis. Venezuelan seasons (dry and wet) were separated into an early and a late period. The oceanic impact on the precipitation of the station data is, in the majority of the cases, higher in the inland than at the coast. The Pacific's influence is stronger in the early dry season than in the wet season, whereas the Atlantic's influence is stronger in the wet season (inland). In contrast, CCA applied to the model data provides highest correlation coefficients in the late wet season for all oceanic regions. In most cases the North Tropical Atlantic has a stronger influence than the Niño regions.

Ultra Stable Microwave Radiometers for Future Sea Surface Salinity Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, William J.; Tanner, Alan B.; Pellerano, Fernando A.; Horgan, Kevin A.

2005-01-01

The NASA Earth Science System Pathfinder (ESSP) mission Aquarius will measure global sea surface salinity with 100-km spatial resolution every 8 days with an average monthly salinity accuracy of 0.2 psu (parts per thousand). This requires an L-band low-noise radiometer with the long-term calibration stability of less than 0.1 K over 8 days. This three-year research program on ultra stable radiometers has addressed the radiometer requirements and configuration necessary to achieve this objective for Aquarius and future ocean salinity missions. The system configuration and component performance have been evaluated with radiometer testbeds at both JPL and GSFC. The research has addressed several areas including component characterization as a function of temperature, a procedure for the measurement and correction for radiometer system non-linearity, noise diode calibration versus temperature, low noise amplifier performance over voltage, and temperature control requirements to achieve the required stability. A breadboard radiometer, utilizing microstrip-based technologies, has been built to demonstrate this long-term stability. This report also presents the results of the radiometer test program, a detailed radiometer noise model, and details of the operational switching sequence optimization that can be used to achieve the low noise and stability requirements. Many of the results of this research have been incorporated into the Aquarius radiometer design and will allow this instrument to achieve its goals.

Microstrip Antenna for Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Salinity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramhat-Samii, Yahya; Kona, Keerti; Manteghi, Majid; Dinardo, Steven; Hunter, Don; Njoku, Eni; Wilson, Wiliam; Yueh, Simon

2009-01-01

This compact, lightweight, dual-frequency antenna feed developed for future soil moisture and sea surface salinity (SSS) missions can benefit future soil and ocean studies by lowering mass, volume, and cost of the antenna system. It also allows for airborne soil moisture and salinity remote sensors operating on small aircraft. While microstrip antenna technology has been developed for radio communications, it has yet to be applied to combined radar and radiometer for Earth remote sensing. The antenna feed provides a key instrument element enabling high-resolution radiometric observations with large, deployable antennas. The design is based on the microstrip stacked-patch array (MSPA) used to feed a large, lightweight, deployable, rotating mesh antenna for spaceborne L-band (approximately equal to 1 GHz) passive and active sensing systems. The array consists of stacked patches to provide dual-frequency capability and suitable radiation patterns. The stacked-patch microstrip element was designed to cover the required L-band center frequencies at 1.26 GHz (lower patch) and 1.413 GHz (upper patch), with dual-linear polarization capabilities. The dimension of patches produces the required frequencies. To achieve excellent polarization isolation and control of antenna sidelobes for the MSPA, the orientation of each stacked-patch element within the array is optimized to reduce the cross-polarization. A specialized feed-distribution network was designed to achieve the required excitation amplitude and phase for each stacked-patch element.

The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Bennion, Vicki; Grinham, Alistair; Cahoon, Donald R.

2011-01-01

Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y-1) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y-1) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y-1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7–9 mm y-1 in the mangrove and 1–3 mm y-1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y-1, possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.

The impact of land and sea surface variations on the Delaware sea breeze at local scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Christopher P.

The summertime climate of coastal Delaware is greatly influenced by the intensity, frequency, and location of the local sea breeze circulation. Sea breeze induced changes in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation influence many aspects of Delaware's economy by affecting tourism, farming, air pollution density, energy usage, and the strength, and persistence of Delaware's wind resource. The sea breeze front can develop offshore or along the coastline and often creates a near surface thermal gradient in excess of 5°C. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the dynamics of the Delaware sea breeze with a focus on the immediate coastline using observed and modeled components, both at high resolutions (~200m). The Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.5) was employed over southern Delaware with 5 domains (4 levels of nesting), with resolutions ranging from 18km to 222m, for June 2013 to investigate the sensitivity of the sea breeze to land and sea surface variations. The land surface was modified in the model to improve the resolution, which led to the addition of land surface along the coastline and accounted for recent urban development. Nine-day composites of satellite sea surface temperatures were ingested into the model and an in-house SST forcing dataset was developed to account for spatial SST variation within the inland bays. Simulations, which include the modified land surface, introduce a distinct secondary atmospheric circulation across the coastline of Rehoboth Bay when synoptic offshore wind flow is weak. Model runs using high spatial- and temporal-resolution satellite sea surface temperatures over the ocean indicate that the sea breeze landfall time is sensitive to the SST when the circulation develops offshore. During the summer of 2013 a field campaign was conducted in the coastal locations of Rehoboth Beach, DE and Cape Henlopen, DE. At each location, a series of eleven small, autonomous thermo-sensors (i-buttons) were placed along 1-km transects oriented perpendicular to the coastline where each sensor recorded temperatures at five-minute intervals. This novel approach allows for detailed characterization of the sea breeze front development over the immediate coastline not seen in previous studies. These observations provide evidence of significant variability in frontal propagation (advancing, stalling, and retrograding) within the first kilometer of the coast. Results from this observational study indicate that the land surface has the largest effect on the frontal location when the synoptic winds have a strong offshore component, which forces the sea breeze front to move slowly through the region. When this happens, the frequency of occurrence and sea breeze frontal speed decreases consistently across the first 500 m of Rehoboth Beach, after which, the differences become insignificant. At Cape Henlopen the decrease in intensity across the transect is much less evident and the reduction in frequency does not occur until after the front is 500 m from the coast. Under these conditions at Rehoboth Beach, the near surface air behind the front warms due to the land surface which, along with the large surface friction component of the urbanized land surface, causes the front to slow as it traverses the region. Observation and modeling results suggest that the influence of variations in the land and sea surface on the sea breeze circulation is complex and highly dependent on the regional synoptic wind regime. This result inspired the development of a sea breeze prediction algorithm using a generalized linear regression model which, incorporated real-time synoptic conditions to forecast the likelihood of a sea breeze front passing through a coastal station. The forecast skill increases through the morning hours after sunrise. The inland synoptic wind direction is the most influential variable utilized by the algorithm. Such a model could be enhanced to forecast local temperature with coonfidence, which could be useful in an economic or energy usage model.

Lipid biomarkers in surface sediments from the Gulf of Genoa (Ligurian Sea) and their potential for palaeo-environmental reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruggieri, Nicoletta; Kaiser, Jérôme; Arz, Helge W.; Hefter, Jens; Siegel, Herbert; Mollenhauer, Gesine; Lamy, Frank

2014-05-01

A series of molecular organic markers were determined in surface sediments from the Gulf of Genoa (Ligurian Sea) in order to evaluate their potential for palaeo-environmental reconstructions. The interest for the Gulf of Genoa lies in its contrasting coastal and central areas in terms of terrestrial input, oligotrophy, primary production and surface temperature gradient. Moreover, the Gulf of Genoa contains a large potential for climate reconstruction as it is one of the four major Mediterranean centres for cyclogenesis and the ultra high sedimentation rates on the shelf make this area suitable for high resolution environmental reconstruction. Initial results from sediment cores in the coastal area indeed reveal the potential for Holocene environmental reconstruction on up to decadal timescales (see Poster "Reconstruction of late Holocene flooding events in the Gulf of Genoa, Ligurian Sea" by Lamy et al.). During R/V Poseidon cruise P413 (May 2011), ca. 60 sediment cores were taken along the Ligurian shelf, continental slope, and in the basin between off Livorno and the French border. Results based on surface sediments suggest that some biomarker-based proxies are well-suited to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST), the input of terrestrial organic material (TOM), and marine primary productivity (PP). The estimated UK'37 SST reflects very closely the autumnal mean satellite-based SST distribution, while TEXH86 SSTs correspond to summer SST at offshore sites and to winter SST for the nearshore sites. Using both SST proxies together may thus allow reconstructing past seasonality changes. Proxies for TOM input (terrestrial n-alkane and n-alkanol concentrations, BIT index) have higher values close to the major river mouths and decrease offshore suggesting that these may be used as proxy for the variability in TOM input by runoff. Interestingly, high n-alkane average chain length in the most offshore sites may result from aeolian input from northern Africa. Finally, high concentrations of crenarchaeol and isoprenoid GDGTs in the open basin illustrate the preference of Thaumarchaeota for oligotrophic waters. This study represents a major prerequisite for the future application of lipid biomarkers on sediment cores from the Gulf of Genoa.

Fast ice in the Canadian Arctic: Climatology, Atmospheric Forcing and Relation to Bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galley, R. J.; Barber, D. G.

2010-12-01

Mobile sea ice in the northern hemisphere has experienced significant reductions in both extent and thickness over the last thirty years, and global climate models agree that these decreases will continue. However, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) creates a much different icescape than in the central Arctic Ocean due to its distinctive topographic, bathymetric and climatological conditions. Of particular interest is the continued viability of landfast sea ice as a means of transportation and platform for transportation and hunting for the Canadian Inuit that reside in the region, as is the possibility of the Northwest Passage becoming a viable shipping lane in the future. Here we determine the climatological average landfast ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the last 27 years, we investigate variability and trends in these landfast ice conditions, and we attempt to elucidate the physical parameters conducive to landfast sea ice formation in sub-regions of the CAA during different times of the year. We use the Canadian Ice Service digital sea ice charts between 1983 and 2009 on a 2x2km grid to determine the sea ice concentration-by-type and whether the sea ice in a grid cell was landfast on a weekly, bi-weekly or monthly basis depending on the time of year. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric data were used in this work, including air temperature, surface level pressure and wind speed and direction. The bathymetric data employed was from the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean. Results indicate that the CAA sea ice regime is not climatologically analogous to the mobile sea ice of the central Arctic Ocean. The sea ice and the atmospheric and bathymetric properties that control the amount and timing of landfast sea ice within the CAA are regionally variable.

Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Matthew J. R.; Breili, Kristian; Kierulf, Halfdan P.

2014-03-01

In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between -0.2 to 0.3 m (1-sigma ± 0.13 m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6 °C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85 m (min/max ± 0.45 m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change.

Climate change impacts on southern Ross Sea phytoplankton composition, productivity, and export

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Daniel E.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Smith, Walker O.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Dinniman, Michael S.; Hemmings, John C. P.

2017-03-01

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity, and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid-21st and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity by midcentury and 14% by late-century and a proportional increase in carbon export, which remains approximately 18% of primary production. In addition, scenario results indicate diatom biomass increases while P. antarctica biomass decreases in the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the century, diatom biomass remains relatively constant and P. antarctica biomass increases. Additional scenarios examining the independent contributions of expected future changes (temperature, mixed layer depth, irradiance, and surface iron inputs from melting ice) demonstrate that earlier availability of low light due to reduction of sea ice early in the growing season is the primary driver of productivity increases over the next century; shallower mixed layer depths additionally contribute to changes of assemblage composition and export. This study further demonstrates how glider data can be effectively used to facilitate model development and simulation, and inform interpretation of biogeochemical observations in the context of climate change.