An analysis of electricity price behavior when the market in California was dysfunctional

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yoo-Soo

The electricity market in California worked well for the first two years after restructuring, but in the summer of 2000 there were frequent high price spikes and then persistently high prices during the winter and the spring of 2001. This research develops econometric models to explain the behavior of the spot and forward prices for electricity and the relationship between them when the market in California was dysfunctional. The first results demonstrate that the high spot prices in the day-ahead market during the summer of 2000 were caused by changes in the bid behavior of buyers as well as by the offer behavior of sellers. After the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) declared that these high spot prices were "unjust and unreasonable", the FERC approved the payment of refunds to customers in California but not in other areas within the Western Inter-Connection (WECC). However, the results of a Vector Auto-Regressive model (VAR) show that the high spot prices in California were transferred immediately to other states in the WECC and the spot prices at different trading hubs belong to a single market. After the intervention by FERC in December 2000, spot prices and forward prices of electricity were unusually high. Estimated distributed lag models, using both monthly and daily data, show that there were strong positive relationships between the price shocks for electricity and natural gas in the spot markets and the forward prices for electricity. Risk premiums in the forward prices for electricity were estimated and the results show that the price shocks for electricity after FERC's intervention were the primary cause of the high forward prices. The main conclusions for regulatory policy are (1) it is virtually impossible to contain the effects of a dysfunctional electricity market to a single region because other regions are linked through the electrical grid, and (2) it is essential to intervene immediately and effectively when the spot prices have been ruled by regulators to be unjust and unreasonable. The intervention by the FERC did not prevent persistently high spot and forward prices for customers throughout the WECC.

White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Peter M.

The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

78 FR 72099 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submitted for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-02

... from leases in California or Alaska. Value is the average of the daily mean ANS spot prices published.... . . . (1) To calculate the daily mean spot price . . . (2) Use only the days . . . (3) You must adjust the... to your refinery and the NYMEX 330 2 660 price or ANS spot price is an unreasonable value. (1...

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

MORAL HAZARD IN HEALTH INSURANCE: DO DYNAMIC INCENTIVES MATTER?

PubMed Central

Aron-Dine, Aviva; Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark

2016-01-01

Using data from employer-provided health insurance and Medicare Part D, we investigate whether healthcare utilization responds to the dynamic incentives created by the nonlinear nature of health insurance contracts. We exploit the fact that, because annual coverage usually resets every January, individuals who join a plan later in the year face the same initial (“spot”) price of healthcare but a higher expected end-of-year (“future”) price. We find a statistically significant response of initial utilization to the future price, rejecting the null that individuals respond only to the spot price. We discuss implications for analysis of moral hazard in health insurance. PMID:26769985

Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larrieu, Jeremy

In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Wen

2018-03-01

This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Quotations in bona fide spot markets. 27.96 Section 27... Differences § 27.96 Quotations in bona fide spot markets. The price or value and differences between the price... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in...

Estimation of Value-at-Risk for Energy Commodities via CAViaR Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiliang, Zhao; Xi, Zhu

This paper uses the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk model (CAViaR) proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004) to evaluate the value-at-risk for daily spot prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil covering the period May 21th, 1987 to Novermber 18th, 2008. Then the accuracy of the estimates of CAViaR model, Normal-GARCH, and GED-GARCH was compared. The results show that all the methods do good job for the low confidence level (95%), and GED-GARCH is the best for spot WTI price, Normal-GARCH and Adaptive-CAViaR are the best for spot Brent price. However, for the high confidence level (99%), Normal-GARCH do a good job for spot WTI, GED-GARCH and four kind of CAViaR specifications do well for spot Brent price. Normal-GARCH does badly for spot Brent price. The result seems suggest that CAViaR do well as well as GED-GARCH since CAViaR directly model the quantile autoregression, but it does not outperform GED-GARCH although it does outperform Normal-GARCH.

A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

PubMed

Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

2014-05-01

Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

2008-09-15

For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas-fired units account for nearly 90% of the total generating capacity added in the U.S. between 1999 and 2005 (EIA 2006b), bringing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation to 19%. Looking ahead over the next decade, the EIA expects this trend to continue, increasing the market share of gas-fired generation to 22% by 2015 (EIA 2007a). Though these numbers are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is makingmore » similar advances in many other countries as well. A large percentage of the total cost of gas-fired generation is attributable to fuel costs--i.e., natural gas prices. For example, at current spot prices of around $7/MMBtu, fuel costs account for more than 75% of the levelized cost of energy from a new combined cycle gas turbine, and more than 90% of its operating costs (EIA 2007a). Furthermore, given that gas-fired plants are often the marginal supply units that set the market-clearing price for all generators in a competitive wholesale market, there is a direct link between natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, the dramatic increase in natural gas prices since the 1990s should be a cause for ratepayer concern. Figure 1 shows the daily price history of the 'first-nearby' (i.e., closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas futures contract (black line) at Henry Hub, along with the futures strip (i.e., the full series of futures contracts) from August 22, 2007 (red line). First, nearby prices, which closely track spot prices, have recently been trading within a $7-9/MMBtu range in the United States and, as shown by the futures strip, are expected to remain there through 2012. These price levels are $6/MMBtu higher than the $1-3/MMBtu range seen throughout most of the 1990s, demonstrating significant price escalation for natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy (relative to conventional fuels), we do seek to quantify the magnitude of these two individual benefits. We also note that these benefits are not unique to renewable electricity: other generation (or demand-side) resources whose costs are not tied to natural gas would provide similar benefits.« less

Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2017-01-01

Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

EIA Publications

2003-01-01

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter

EIA Publications

2013-01-01

Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation. Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England.

Optimum electric utility spot price determinations for small power producing facilities operating under PURPA provisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghoudjehbaklou, H.; Puttgen, H.B.

This paper outlines an optimum spot price determination procedure in the general context of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, PURPA, provisions. PURPA stipulates that local utilities must offer to purchase all available excess electric energy from Qualifying Facilities, QF, at fair market prices. As a direct consequence of these PURPA regulations, a growing number of owners are installing power producing facilities and optimize their operational schedules to minimize their utility related costs or, in some cases, actually maximize their revenues from energy sales to the local utility. In turn, the utility strives to use spot prices which maximize itsmore » revenues from any given Small Power Producing Facility, SPPF, a schedule while respecting the general regulatory and contractual framework. the proposed optimum spot price determination procedure fully models the SPPF operation, it enforces the contractual and regulatory restrictions, and it ensures the uniqueness of the optimum SPPF schedule.« less

Optimum electric utility spot price determinations for small power producing facilities operating under PURPA provisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghoudjehbaklou, H.; Puttgen, H.B.

The present paper outlines an optimum spot price determination procedure in the general context of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, PURPA, provisions. PURPA stipulates that local utilities must offer to purchase all available excess electric energy from Qualifying Facilities, QF, at fair market prices. As a direct consequence of these PURPA regulations, a growing number of owners are installing power producing facilities and optimize their operational schedules to minimize their utility related costs or, in some cases, actually maximize their revenues from energy sales to the local utility. In turn, the utility will strive to use spot prices whichmore » maximize its revenues from any given Small Power Producing Facility, SPPF, schedule while respecting the general regulatory and contractual framework. The proposed optimum spot price determination procedure fully models the SPPF operation, it enforces the contractual and regulatory restrictions, and it ensures the uniqueness of the optimum SPPF schedule.« less

Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Shijie

The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in pricing electricity financial instruments such as electricity forwards, options and cross-commodity derivatives. It is also essential for the analysis of financial risk management, asset valuation, and project financing. In the setting of diffusion processes with multiple types of jumps, I examine three mean-reversion models for modeling the electricity spot prices. I impose some structure on the coefficients of the diffusion processes, which allows me to easily compute the prices of contingent claims (or, financial instruments) on electricity by Fourier methods. I derive the pricing formulas for various electricity derivatives and examine how the prices vary with different modeling assumptions. I demonstrate a couple of risk management applications of the electricity financial instruments. I also construct a real options approach to value electric power generation and transmission assets both with and without accounting for the operating characteristics of the assets. The implications of the mean-reversion jump-diffusion models on financial risk management and real asset valuation in competitive electricity markets are illustrated. With a discrete trinomial lattice modeling the underlying commodity prices, I estimate the effects of operational characteristics on the asset valuation by means of numerical examples that incorporate these aspects using stochastic dynamic programming. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

78 FR 14824 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submitted for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-07

... Alaska. Value is the average of the daily mean ANS spot prices published in any ONRR-approved publication during the trading month most concurrent with the production month. (1) To calculate the daily mean spot... ANS spot price is an unreasonable value. (1) . . . you may apply to the ONRR Director to establish a...

Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Haesun

2005-12-01

Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair-wise markets. Four alternative cases for the law of one price are presented as a theoretical background. A methodology is developed for finding a threshold cointegration model that accounts for seasonality in the threshold levels. Results indicate that dynamic threshold effects vary depending on geographical location and whether the markets are excess producing or excess consuming markets.

Optimal strategies for electric energy contract decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Haili

2000-10-01

The power industry restructuring in various countries in recent years has created an environment where trading of electric energy is conducted in a market environment. In such an environment, electric power companies compete for the market share through spot and bilateral markets. Being profit driven, electric power companies need to make decisions on spot market bidding, contract evaluation, and risk management. New methods and software tools are required to meet these upcoming needs. In this research, bidding strategy and contract pricing are studied from a market participant's viewpoint; new methods are developed to guide a market participant in spot and bilateral market operation. A supplier's spot market bidding decision is studied. Stochastic optimization is formulated to calculate a supplier's optimal bids in a single time period. This decision making problem is also formulated as a Markov Decision Process. All the competitors are represented by their bidding parameters with corresponding probabilities. A systematic method is developed to calculate transition probabilities and rewards. The optimal strategy is calculated to maximize the expected reward over a planning horizon. Besides the spot market, a power producer can also trade in the bilateral markets. Bidding strategies in a bilateral market are studied with game theory techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions of Nash Equilibrium (NE) bidding strategy are derived based on the generators' cost and the loads' willingness to pay. The study shows that in any NE, market efficiency is achieved. Furthermore, all Nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators. The pricing of "Flexible" contracts, which allow delivery flexibility over a period of time with a fixed total amount of electricity to be delivered, is analyzed based on the no-arbitrage pricing principle. The proposed algorithm calculates the price based on the optimality condition of the stochastic optimization formulation. Simulation examples illustrate the tradeoffs between prices and scheduling flexibility. Spot bidding and contract pricing are not independent decision processes. The interaction between spot bidding and contract evaluation is demonstrated with game theory equilibrium model and market simulation results. It leads to the conclusion that a market participant's contract decision making needs to be further investigated as an integrated optimization formulation.

Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

78 FR 9330 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-08

... Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: The... bona fide cotton spot markets in order to assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and... spot prices of cotton marketed in Kansas and Virginia. AMS is also proposing to amend references to the...

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.« less

The inevitable commoditization of electric power markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mango, B.; Woodley, J.A.C.

1994-11-01

As competition grows between electric suppliers it is inevitable that a spot market in electricity will evolve. The impetus is the market demand for greater asset productivity. With prices revealed, a commodity market will follow. With spot and commodity markets will come the power to reallocate risk and make capital investment more productive. Given price volatility, separate markets will develop for near- and long-term hedging instruments.

Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

EIA Publications

2005-01-01

Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 36 - Guidance on, and Acceptable Practices in, Compliance With Core Principles

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... spot-month positions. Spot-month limits should be adopted for significant price discovery contracts to... market or derivatives transaction execution facility should set the spot-month limit for its significant... designated contract market or derivatives transaction execution facility. In this case, the spot-month...

Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region.

Treesearch

Donald F. Flora; Wendy J. McGInnls

1992-01-01

Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model...

75 FR 4143 - Federal Speculative Position Limits for Referenced Energy Contracts and Associated Regulations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-26

... the price of a commodity. In addition to identifying the affected energy contracts and the position... response to high prices and volatility in the energy markets and concerns regarding excessive speculation... position limits during spot months. From 2007 to mid 2008, commodity prices generally, and energy prices in...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports showing natural gas import and export activity. Companies are required to file quarterly reports. Attachments show the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the 5 most recent quarters, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months, volume and price data for gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis, and the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis tomore » Canada and Mexico.« less

Heating Oil and Propane Update

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

Weekly residential, wholesale, and spot prices; and production, demand, and stocks of heating fuels. (Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season which extends from October through March.)

A Commercial IOTV Cleaning Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-12

manufacturer’s list price without taking into consideration of possible volume discount.  Equipment depreciation cost was calculated based on...Laundering with Prewash Spot Cleaning) 32 Table 12 Shrinkage Statistical Data (Traditional Wet Laundering without Prewash Spot Cleaning...Statistical Data (Computer-controlled Wet Cleaning without Prewash Spot Cleaning) 35 Table 15 Shrinkage Statistical Data (Liquid CO2 Cleaning

Natural gas imports and exports, first quarter report 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports showing natural gas import and export activity. Companies are required to file quarterly reports. Attachments show the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the 5 most recent reporting quarters, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months, volume and price data for gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis, and the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basismore » to Canada and Mexico.« less

Natural gas imports and exports, fourth quarter report 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports showing natural gas import and export activity. Companies are required to file quarterly reports. Attachments show the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the five most recent quarters, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months, volume and price data for gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis, and the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis tomore » Canada and Mexico.« less

16 CFR 502.100 - “Cents-off” representations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... the retailer represents the savings in the amount of the “cents-off” the retailer's regular price, e.g... Package”; provided, the package or label may in addition bear in the usual pricing spot a form reflecting... deception or for frustration of value comparison, e.g., where the retailer charges a price which does not...

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

Spatial and Social Media Data Analytics of Housing Prices in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Wu, Chao; Ye, Xinyue; Ren, Fu; Wan, You; Ning, Pengfei; Du, Qingyun

2016-01-01

Housing is among the most pressing issues in urban China and has received considerable scholarly attention. Researchers have primarily concentrated on identifying the factors that influence residential property prices and how such mechanisms function. However, few studies have examined the potential factors that influence housing prices from a big data perspective. In this article, we use a big data perspective to determine the willingness of buyers to pay for various factors. The opinions and geographical preferences of individuals for places can be represented by visit frequencies given different motivations. Check-in data from the social media platform Sina Visitor System is used in this article. Here, we use kernel density estimation (KDE) to analyse the spatial patterns of check-in spots (or places of interest, POIs) and employ the Getis-Ord [Formula: see text] method to identify the hot spots for different types of POIs in Shenzhen, China. New indexes are then proposed based on the hot-spot results as measured by check-in data to analyse the effects of these locations on housing prices. This modelling is performed using the hedonic price method (HPM) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The results show that the degree of clustering of POIs has a significant influence on housing values. Meanwhile, the GWR method has a better interpretive capacity than does the HPM because of the former method's ability to capture spatial heterogeneity. This article integrates big social media data to expand the scope (new study content) and depth (study scale) of housing price research to an unprecedented degree.

Spatial and Social Media Data Analytics of Housing Prices in Shenzhen, China

PubMed Central

Ye, Xinyue; Ren, Fu; Wan, You; Ning, Pengfei; Du, Qingyun

2016-01-01

Housing is among the most pressing issues in urban China and has received considerable scholarly attention. Researchers have primarily concentrated on identifying the factors that influence residential property prices and how such mechanisms function. However, few studies have examined the potential factors that influence housing prices from a big data perspective. In this article, we use a big data perspective to determine the willingness of buyers to pay for various factors. The opinions and geographical preferences of individuals for places can be represented by visit frequencies given different motivations. Check-in data from the social media platform Sina Visitor System is used in this article. Here, we use kernel density estimation (KDE) to analyse the spatial patterns of check-in spots (or places of interest, POIs) and employ the Getis-Ord Gi* method to identify the hot spots for different types of POIs in Shenzhen, China. New indexes are then proposed based on the hot-spot results as measured by check-in data to analyse the effects of these locations on housing prices. This modelling is performed using the hedonic price method (HPM) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The results show that the degree of clustering of POIs has a significant influence on housing values. Meanwhile, the GWR method has a better interpretive capacity than does the HPM because of the former method’s ability to capture spatial heterogeneity. This article integrates big social media data to expand the scope (new study content) and depth (study scale) of housing price research to an unprecedented degree. PMID:27783645

The value of improved (ERS) information based on domestic distribution effects of U.S. agriculture crops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradford, D. F.; Kelejian, H. H.; Brusch, R.; Gross, J.; Fishman, H.; Feenberg, D.

1974-01-01

The value of improving information for forecasting future crop harvests was investigated. Emphasis was placed upon establishing practical evaluation procedures firmly based in economic theory. The analysis was applied to the case of U.S. domestic wheat consumption. Estimates for a cost of storage function and a demand function for wheat were calculated. A model of market determinations of wheat inventories was developed for inventory adjustment. The carry-over horizon is computed by the solution of a nonlinear programming problem, and related variables such as spot and future price at each stage are determined. The model is adaptable to other markets. Results are shown to depend critically on the accuracy of current and proposed measurement techniques. The quantitative results are presented parametrically, in terms of various possible values of current and future accuracies.

Essays on the economics of natural gas pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Matthew E.

The natural gas pipeline transportation industry is comprised of a primary market and a secondary market. In the primary market, pipelines sell 'firm' transport capacity contracts to gas traders, local distribution companies, and other parties. The (per unit) secondary market value of transport is rarely comparable to the regulated primary market two-part tariff. When and where available capacity in the secondary market is scarce, its value can far exceed the primary market tariffs paid by firm contract holders, generating scarcity rents. The following essays demonstrate that this phenomenon has predictable effects on natural gas spot prices, firm capacity reservations, the pipeline's capacity construction and expansion decisions, and the economic welfare of producers and consumers at the market hubs connected by the pipeline. Chapter 1 provides a theoretical framework for understanding how pipeline congestion affects natural gas spot prices within the context of the current regulatory environment, and empirically quantifies this effect over a specific regional pipeline network. As available pipeline capacity over a given route connecting two hubs becomes scarce, the spot prices for gas at the hubs are driven apart---a phenomenon indicative of some market friction that inhibits the ability of spot price arbitrage to fully integrate the two prices, undermining economic efficiency. The theoretical component of Chapter 1 illuminates a potential source of this friction: the deregulated structure of the secondary market for gas transportation services. To support and quantify the predictions of the theoretical model, the empirical component demonstrates that the effect of congestion on the secondary market value of transport---the key factor in driving apart spot prices---can be quite strong. Coefficient estimates indicate that dramatic increases in transport costs are likely to result from marginal increases in congestion. This result has important implications because upward pressure on the demand for pipeline transport is imminent, owing to the recent surge in available natural gas reserve estimates and the expected growth in consumption demand over the foreseeable future. Chapter 2 derives optimality conditions for capacity and two-part tariff structure in the primary market, when demand for the shipping service in the secondary market is stochastic but stationary. Based on their individual demand distributions, the overall demand distribution, and the two-part tariff structure, natural gas traders reserve firm capacity contracts over a given transportation route served by a single pipeline. The traders' individual demands sum to the aggregate demand for primary market capacity reservations over the route. The aggregate capacity reservation demand function then feeds into the pipeline's profit-maximization problem, which for comparison is analyzed under three alternative regulatory regimes: unregulated monopoly, Ramsey second-best solution, and rate-of-return regulation. For each case, the optimality conditions are parameterized and solved numerically. Results demonstrate that optimal capacity under rate-of-return regulation is lower than what would occur under a Ramsey second-best solution, exacerbating the congestion issue discussed in Chapter 1, and ultimately reducing overall social welfare. Chapter 3 examines a natural gas trader's willingness to contract expanded capacity over a given pipeline route, when demand in the secondary market is stochastic and increasing over time. A discrete time and scale framework provides the template for analyzing the trader's behavior and solving for his optimal expansion contracting strategy through time. Willingness to contract in any period hinges on the trade-off between the value of the option to contract expanded capacity (now or in a future period), and the 'spread option' value of utilizing contracted capacity to ship gas. The rate-of-return regulated primary market two-part tariff and the unregulated secondary market value of transport each affect these option values, but the latter provides a strong incentive to the trader to both delay and suppress his willingness to contract expanded capacity relative to the demand for gas shipping services. As a result, the pipeline is chronically congested. Relating this to the results of Chapters 1 and 2, there are likely to be strong welfare effects associated with this behavior. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

[G protein-coupled receptors in the spot light].

PubMed

Benleulmi-Chaachoua, Abla; Wojciech, Stefanie; Jockers, Ralf

2013-01-01

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), also known as seven transmembrane domain-spanning proteins (7TM), play an important role in tissue homeostasis and cellular and hormonal communication. GPCRs are targeted by a large panel of natural ligands such as photons, ions, metabolites, lipids and proteins but also by numerous drugs. Research efforts in the GPCR field have been rewarded in 2012 by the Nobel Price in Chemistry. The present article briefly summarizes our current knowledge on GPCRs and discusses future challenges in terms of fundamental aspects and therapeutic applications. © Société de Biologie, 2013.

78 FR 76367 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change, as...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-17

... barriers between itself and its broker dealer affiliate; (ii) the use of unallocated gold accounts by other... facilities of the Consolidated Tape Association (``CTA''). Investors may obtain gold pricing information.... Investors may obtain on a 24-hour basis gold pricing information based on the spot price for a Fine Ounce of...

It’s the Economy that Matters Most

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-07

economy to prosper and enrich not only the nation state, but the people living in the nation state. A strategy that protects the U.S. economy should...8 compares the price of gold; and finally, Figure 9 compares the price of flour . 20 Figure 7: U.S. Spot price for Oil44 Since the 9/11 attacks, the...Inflationary pressure is beginning to show in food prices as well. The 14 month period from Jan 07 – Feb 08 flour has jumped 31.5%. However, if you

Nonlinear analysis and dynamic structure in the energy market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghababa, Hajar

This research assesses the dynamic structure of the energy sector of the aggregate economy in the context of nonlinear mechanisms. Earlier studies have focused mainly on the price of the energy products when detecting nonlinearities in time series data of the energy market, and there is little mention of the production side of the market. Moreover, there is a lack of exploration about the implication of high dimensionality and time aggregation when analyzing the market's fundamentals. This research will address these gaps by including the quantity side of the market in addition to the price and by systematically incorporating various frequencies for sample sizes in three essays. The goal of this research is to provide an inclusive and exhaustive examination of the dynamics in the energy markets. The first essay begins with the application of statistical techniques, and it incorporates the most well-known univariate tests for nonlinearity with distinct power functions over alternatives and tests different null hypotheses. It utilizes the daily spot price observations on five major products in the energy market. The results suggest that the time series daily spot prices of the energy products are highly nonlinear in their nature. They demonstrate apparent evidence of general nonlinear serial dependence in each individual series, as well as nonlinearity in the first, second, and third moments of the series. The second essay examines the underlying mechanism of crude oil production and identifies the nonlinear structure of the production market by utilizing various monthly time series observations of crude oil production: the U.S. field, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), non-OPEC, and the world production of crude oil. The finding implies that the time series data of the U.S. field, OPEC, and the world production of crude oil exhibit deep nonlinearity in their structure and are generated by nonlinear mechanisms. However, the dynamics of the non-OPEC production time series data does not reveal signs of nonlinearity. The third essay explores nonlinear structure in the case of high dimensionality of the observations, different frequencies of sample sizes, and division of the samples into sub-samples. It systematically examines the robustness of the inference methods at various levels of time aggregation by employing daily spot prices on crude oil for 26 years as well as monthly spot price index on crude oil for 41 years. The daily and monthly samples are divided into sub-samples as well. All the tests detect strong evidence of nonlinear structure in the daily spot price of crude oil; whereas in monthly observations the evidence of nonlinear dependence is less dramatic, indicating that the nonlinear serial dependence will not be as intense when the time aggregation increase in time series observations.

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes in prices and volatility to be correlated. The results show that the value of a power plant is much higher using the financial option model than using traditional discounted cash flow.

National Association Links, Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,

Science.gov Websites

Oil and Gas Conservation Commission Alaska Department of Administration, Alaska Oil and Gas Guidelines Regulatory Regulations Statutes Industry Guidance Bulletins Memorandums of Agreement Links Oil Field Terms (Schlumberger) Spot Price Information (DOE) West Coast Price - NS Oil (DOR) Calendar State

Multi-Objective Bidding Strategy for Genco Using Non-Dominated Sorting Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksinchai, Apinat; Boonchuay, Chanwit; Ongsakul, Weerakorn

2010-06-01

This paper proposes a multi-objective bidding strategy for a generation company (GenCo) in uniform price spot market using non-dominated sorting particle swarm optimization (NSPSO). Instead of using a tradeoff technique, NSPSO is introduced to solve the multi-objective strategic bidding problem considering expected profit maximization and risk (profit variation) minimization. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to simulate rivals' bidding behavior. Test results indicate that the proposed approach can provide the efficient non-dominated solution front effectively. In addition, it can be used as a decision making tool for a GenCo compromising between expected profit and price risk in spot market.

Natural gas imports and exports. Fourth quarter report, 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-12-31

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports summarizing the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Companies are required, as a condition of their authorizations, to file quarterly reports. This report is for the fourth quarter of 1998 (October through December). Attachment A shows the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the five most recent reporting quarters. Attachment B shows volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during themore » past 12 months. Attachment C shows volume and price information pertaining to gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis. Attachment D shows the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico.« less

Natural gas imports and exports. Third quarter report 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This quarterly report, prepared by The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities, summarizes the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Numerical data are presented in four attachments, each of which is comprised of a series of tables. Attachment A shows the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the five most recent calendar quarters. Volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past year are given in Attachment B. Attachment Cmore » shows volume and price information pertaining to gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis. Attachment D lists gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico. Highlights of the report are very briefly summarized.« less

Natural gas imports and exports. First quarter report, 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports summarizing the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Companies are required, as a condition of their authorizations, to file quarterly reports. This report is for the first quarter of 1998 (January through March). Attachment A shows the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the five most recent reporting quarters. Attachment B shows volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during themore » past 12 months. Attachment C shows volume and price information pertaining to gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis. Attachment D shows the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico.« less

The Australian electricity market's pre-dispatch process: Some observations on its efficiency using ordered probit model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainudin, Wan Nur Rahini Aznie; Becker, Ralf; Clements, Adam

2015-12-01

Many market participants in Australia Electricity Market had cast doubts on whether the pre-dispatch process in the electricity market is able to give them good and timely quantity and price information. In a study by [11], they observed a significant bias (mainly indicating that the pre-dispatch process tends to underestimate spot price outcomes), a seasonality features of the bias across seasons and/or trading periods and changes in bias across the years in our sample period (1999 to 2007). In a formal setting of an ordered probit model we establish that there are some exogenous variables that are able to explain increased probabilities of over- or under-predictions of the spot price. It transpires that meteorological data, expected pre-dispatch prices and information on past over- and under-predictions contribute significantly to explaining variation in the probabilities for over- and under-predictions. The results allow us to conjecture that some of the bids and re-bids provided by electricity generators are not made in good faith.

Price-skid boosts propane sales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, P.

1979-02-05

Lower propane costs have prompted industrial users to switch from natural gas, although dealers are cautioning that they are gambling on an unstable price competition. Analysis of price and use trends indicates that the propane market is growing where users have relied on the interstate gas market, which will be experiencing incremental price increases. Those buying propane on the spot market will get the best prices because the propane market is now glutted as a result of conservation and large gas supplies. A further drop in propane price is not anticipated because producers would lack incentive to extract propane frommore » higher-priced natural gas unless it becomes justified by demand for unleaded gas, of which propane is a by-product.« less

An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays.

PubMed

Wolaver, Brad D; Pierre, Jon Paul; Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Andrews, John R; McDaid, Guinevere; Ryberg, Wade A; Hibbitts, Toby J; Duran, Charles M; Labay, Benjamin J; LaDuc, Travis J

2018-04-13

Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000-45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485-70,623 ha (0.73-1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario ($40-$80/barrel). Grasslands and row crop habitats were most affected (2.30 and 2.82% areal vegetation reduction). Our approach improves forecasts of where and to what extent future energy development in unconventional plays may change land-use and ecosystem services, enabling natural resource managers to anticipate and direct on-the-ground conservation actions to places where they will most effectively mitigate ecological impacts of well pads and associated infrastructure.

7 CFR 59.30 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... direct shipment by the seller to the buyer (e.g., F.O.B. Plant, F.O.B. Feedlot). Imported. The term... cash or spot market purchase by a packer of livestock from a producer under which the base price for... committed to the packer. Negotiated sale. The term “negotiated sale” means a cash or spot market sale by a...

Information-Constrained Optima with Retrading: An Externality and Its Market-Based Solution☆

PubMed Central

Kilenthong, Weerachart T.; Townsend, Robert M.

2010-01-01

This paper studies the efficiency of competitive equilibria in environments with a moral hazard problem and unobserved states, both with retrading in ex post spot markets. The interaction between private information problems and the possibility of retrade creates an externality, unless preferences have special, restrictive properties. The externality is internalized by allowing agents to contract ex ante on market fundamentals determining the spot price or interest rate, over and above contracting on actions and outputs. Then competitive equilibria are equivalent with the appropriate notion of constrained Pareto optimality. Examples show that it is possible to have multiple market fundamentals or price-islands, created endogenously in equilibrium. PMID:21765540

Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbord, David William Cameron

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

76 FR 36947 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Disapproving Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-23

... that reliable gold price information is available to investors in the Gold Shares. Further, the trustee... Gold Shares and diminish the risk of manipulation or unfair informational advantage. The Commission... daily basis, no less frequently than twice per week.\\10\\ If the spot price of the raw material or...

17 CFR 150.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

....1 Definitions. As used in this part— (a) Spot month means the futures contract next to expire during... means each separate futures trading month, other than the spot month future. (c) All-months means the sum of all futures trading months including the spot month future. (d) Eligible entity means— A...

17 CFR 150.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... POSITIONS § 150.1 Definitions. As used in this part— (a) Spot month means the futures contract next to...) Single month means each separate futures trading month, other than the spot month future. (c) All-months means the sum of all futures trading months including the spot month future. (d) Eligible entity means...

17 CFR 150.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

....1 Definitions. As used in this part— (a) Spot month means the futures contract next to expire during... means each separate futures trading month, other than the spot month future. (c) All-months means the sum of all futures trading months including the spot month future. (d) Eligible entity means— A...

Producers add 3 cts/gal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vames, S.

Methanol list prices will continue to rise in March with a nominated price increase of 3 cts/gal (CW, Feb. 26, p. 39). The increases will bring Methanex`s posting price to 70 cts/gal, while most other producers will be at 67 cts/gal. Several producers, including Methanex and Hoechst, expanded capacity last month, but the methanol market remains strong and there are no indications that prices will soften soon. There are hints, however, that the rate of increase of methanol prices may slow. Tightness in the market seems to be easing as producers in eastern Europe increase capacity. The psychology of tightnessmore » was stoked by reports of spot and regional shortages and resulted in buying panics and price increases in fourth-quarter 1996.« less

Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, Stephan; Freeman, Mark C.; Mann, Michael E.

2017-09-01

There is broad consensus among economists that unmitigated climate change will ultimately have adverse global economic consequences, that the costs of inaction will likely outweigh the cost of taking action, and that social planners should therefore put a price on carbon. However, there is considerable debate and uncertainty about the appropriate value of the social discount rate, that is the extent to which future damages should be discounted relative to mitigation costs incurred now. We briefly review the ethical issues surrounding the social discount rate and then report a simulation experiment that constrains the value of the discount rate by considering 4 sources of uncertainty and ambiguity: Scientific uncertainty about the extent of future warming, social uncertainty about future population and future economic development, political uncertainty about future mitigation trajectories, and ethical ambiguity about how much the welfare of future generations should be valued today. We compute a certainty-equivalent declining discount rate that accommodates all those sources of uncertainty and ambiguity. The forward (instantaneous) discount rate converges to a value near 0% by century's end and the spot (horizon) discount rate drops below 2% by 2100 and drops below previous estimates by 2070.

Natural gas: It's headed from surplus to shortage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parent, L.V.

1988-02-01

Reserve additions in the lower 48 states are not keeping up with the current rate of production, and deliverability surplus will soon become deliverability shortfall during periods of extended peak demand. Surplus deliverability will likely fade away, inasmuch as gas well completions are less than half of what they were when additions exceeded the current production rate of 16 tcf/year, and the outlook for a sharp increase in completions is bleak. Demand, lackluster before the recent cold weather, is likely to suffer some loss in markets where lower resid prices can switch loads back to oil. Year-end '87 price spikesmore » were a welcome relief to spot gas sellers, but low reside prices have already put a lid on what industrial users and power plants will pay. As an immature market struggles to develop structure in a quasi-deregulated environment, the Ferc is reduced to tinkering with the minutiae of Order 500, as it seeks to create a compromise that would be equally unsatisfactory to all. Canada is increasing its stake in the game. Canadian producers demonstrated their willingness to accept 1987's low price levels and be players. It will be another problem year for U.S. producers, as price relief for spot gas is more than offset by the Order 500 dilemma and drilling cost increases exceed wellhead price increases. Canadian gas will take a bigger piece of a desultory market. But pending shortfalls promise a better day for those with patience, stamina and deep pockets.« less

Coal Markets

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

Summarizes spot coal prices by coal commodity regions (i.e., Central Appalachia (CAP), Northern Appalachia (NAP), Illinois Basin (ILB), Power River Basin (PRB), and Uinta Basin (UIB)) in the United States.

Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzzadeh, P.; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, B.

2007-07-01

We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal analysis, fluctuations behavior, the scaling exponents and generalized Hurst exponents are studied. Moreover, contribution of fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations to multifractality is studied.

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. We explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for longterm reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs« less

The lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Chen-Chen; Ji, Shen-Dan; Su, Li-Ling; Li, Sai-Ping; Ren, Fei

2016-02-01

The study of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures is of great importance for its wide application in hedging and portfolio investments. Previous works mainly use conventional methods like Granger causality test, GARCH model and error correction model, and focus on the causality relation between the index and futures in a certain period. By using a non-parametric approach-thermal optimal path (TOP) method, we study the lead-lag relationship between China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), Hang Seng Index (HSI), Standard and Poor 500 (S&P 500) Index and their associated futures to reveal the variance of their relationship over time. Our finding shows evidence of pronounced futures leadership for well established index futures, namely HSI and S&P 500 index futures, while index of developing market like CSI 300 has pronounced leadership. We offer an explanation based on the measure of an indicator which quantifies the differences between spot and futures prices for the surge of lead-lag function. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, which is valuable for the study of market efficiency and its applications.

Cloud-based opportunities in scientific computing: insights from processing Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Direct Broadcast data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, J. D.; Hao, W.; Chettri, S.

2013-12-01

The cloud is proving to be a uniquely promising platform for scientific computing. Our experience with processing satellite data using Amazon Web Services highlights several opportunities for enhanced performance, flexibility, and cost effectiveness in the cloud relative to traditional computing -- for example: - Direct readout from a polar-orbiting satellite such as the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) requires bursts of processing a few times a day, separated by quiet periods when the satellite is out of receiving range. In the cloud, by starting and stopping virtual machines in minutes, we can marshal significant computing resources quickly when needed, but not pay for them when not needed. To take advantage of this capability, we are automating a data-driven approach to the management of cloud computing resources, in which new data availability triggers the creation of new virtual machines (of variable size and processing power) which last only until the processing workflow is complete. - 'Spot instances' are virtual machines that run as long as one's asking price is higher than the provider's variable spot price. Spot instances can greatly reduce the cost of computing -- for software systems that are engineered to withstand unpredictable interruptions in service (as occurs when a spot price exceeds the asking price). We are implementing an approach to workflow management that allows data processing workflows to resume with minimal delays after temporary spot price spikes. This will allow systems to take full advantage of variably-priced 'utility computing.' - Thanks to virtual machine images, we can easily launch multiple, identical machines differentiated only by 'user data' containing individualized instructions (e.g., to fetch particular datasets or to perform certain workflows or algorithms) This is particularly useful when (as is the case with S-NPP data) we need to launch many very similar machines to process an unpredictable number of data files concurrently. Our experience shows the viability and flexibility of this approach to workflow management for scientific data processing. - Finally, cloud computing is a promising platform for distributed volunteer ('interstitial') computing, via mechanisms such as the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) popularized with the SETI@Home project and others such as ClimatePrediction.net and NASA's Climate@Home. Interstitial computing faces significant challenges as commodity computing shifts from (always on) desktop computers towards smartphones and tablets (untethered and running on scarce battery power); but cloud computing offers significant slack capacity. This capacity includes virtual machines with unused RAM or underused CPUs; virtual storage volumes allocated (& paid for) but not full; and virtual machines that are paid up for the current hour but whose work is complete. We are devising ways to facilitate the reuse of these resources (i.e., cloud-based interstitial computing) for satellite data processing and related analyses. We will present our findings and research directions on these and related topics.

Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive large oil prices. Chinese oil demand is not responsible for large increases in oil prices; nor are they caused by behavioral idiosyncrasies by oil traders. Finally, oil will be treated largely as a financial asset so long as interest rates are held near their all-time lows.

The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

2017-05-01

The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

76 FR 45885 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-01

... Registration Statements, the Funds face the risk of non-performance by the counterparties to over-the- counter... the Fund in a fashion such that its per Share NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of a... intend to operate the Fund in a fashion such that its per Share NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot...

Economies of scale and asset values in power production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Considine, T.J.

While innovative trading tools have become an increasingly important aspect of the electricity business, the future of any firm in the industry boils down to a basic bread and butter issue of generating power at competitive costs. While buying electricity from power pools at spot prices instead of generating power to service load may be profitable for some firms in the short run, the need to efficiently utilize existing plants in the long run remains. These competitive forces will force the closure of many inefficient plants. As firms close plants and re-evaluate their generating asset portfolios, the basic structure ofmore » the industry will change. This article presents some quantitative analysis that sheds light on this unfolding transformation.« less

Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

PubMed

De Vries, A; Feleke, S

2008-12-01

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not significantly different. Application of the modified Mariano-Diebold tests showed that no method included all the information contained in the other methods. In conclusion, both F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods tended to more accurately predict the future uniform milk prices than the CURRENT method, but prediction errors could be substantial even a few months into the future. The majority of the prediction error was caused by the inefficiency of the futures markets to predict the class III cash prices.

Essays on empirical analysis of multi-unit auctions: Impacts of financial transmission rights on the restructured electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Hailing

This dissertation uses recently developed empirical methodologies for the study of multi-unit auctions to test the impacts of Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) on the competitiveness of restructured electricity markets. FTRs are a special type of financial option that hedge against volatility in the cost of transporting electricity over the grid. Policy makers seek to use the prices of FTRs as market signals to incentivize efficient investment and utilization of transmission capacity. However, prices will not send the correct signals if market participants strategically use FTRs. This dissertation uses data from the Texas electricity market to test whether the prices of FTRs are efficient to achieve such goals. The auctions studied are multi-unit, uniform-price, sealed-bid auctions. The first part of the dissertation studies the auctions on the spot market of the wholesale electricity industry. I derive structural empirical models to test theoretical predictions as to whether bidders fully internalize the effect of FTRs on profits into their bidding decisions. I find that bidders are learning as to how to optimally bid above marginal cost for their inframarginal capacities. The bidders also learn to bid to include FTRs into their profit maximization problem during the course of the first year. But starting from the second year, they deviated from optimal bidding that includes FTRs in the profit maximization problems. Counterfactual analysis show that the primary effect of FTRs on market outcomes is changing the level of prices rather than production efficiency. Finally, I find that in most months, the current allocations of FTRs are statistically equivalent to the optimal allocations. The second part of the dissertation studies the bidding behavior in the FTR auctions. I find that FTRs' strategic impact on the FTR purchasing behavior is significant for large bidders---firms exercising market power in the FTR auctions. Second, trader forecasts future FTR credit very accurately while large generators' forecasts of future FTR credit tends to be biased upward. Finally, the bid shading patterns are consistent with theoretical predictions and support the existence of common values.

Systems with Many Degrees of Freedom: from Mean - Theories of Non-Fermi Liquid Behavior in Impurity Models to Implied Binomial Trees for Modeling Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barle, Stanko

In this dissertation, two dynamical systems with many degrees of freedom are analyzed. One is the system of highly correlated electrons in the two-impurity Kondo problem. The other deals with building a realistic model of diffusion underlying financial markets. The simplest mean-field theory capable of mimicking the non-Fermi liquid behavior of the critical point in the two-impurity Kondo problem is presented. In this approach Landau's adiabaticity assumption--of a one-to-one correspondence between the low-energy excitations of the interacting and noninteracting systems--is violated through the presence of decoupled local degrees of freedom. These do not couple directly to external fields but appear indirectly in the physical properties leading, for example, to the log(T, omega) behavior of the staggered magnetic susceptibility. Also, as observed previously, the correlation function <{bf S}_1 cdot{bf S}_2> = -1/4 is a consequence of the equal weights of the singlet and triplet impurity configurations at the critical point. In the second problem, a numerical model is developed to describe the diffusion of prices in the market. Implied binomial (or multinomial) trees are constructed to enable practical pricing of derivative securities in consistency with the existing market. The method developed here is capable of accounting for both the strike price and term structure of the implied volatility. It includes the correct treatment of interest rate and dividends which proves robust even if these quantities are unusually large. The method is explained both as a set of individual innovations and, from a different prospective, as a consequence of a single plausible transformation from the tree of spot prices to the tree of futures prices.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

PubMed

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

Feast or famine: 1992 spot market review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-01-01

There was nothing temperate about the uranium spot market in 1992. It was a year of extremes. Demand took off at a brisk pace early in the year as utilities, enticed by low U3O8 prices and interest rates, stepped up their discretionary purchases. With the NUKEM price range sinking to an all-time low of US$6.75-7.70 in November 1991, utilities reckoned that prices had bottomed out and decided to buy and hold material. Indeed, the upper end of NUKEM's range remained below $8.00 per lb for much of the first half of 1992. The main cause of low prices was themore » flood of imports from the crumbling Soviet Union and its successor, the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]. The CIS republics quickly embraced a free-market philosophy to boost their faltering economies, and several hoped to use uranium as a source of badly-needed hard currency. But they were about to get a harsh introduction to capitalism. It came in the form of government intervention, in both the US and Europe. In May, the US Department of Commerce made its preliminary determination that the uranium-producing republics of the CIS were selling material in the US at less than fair market value. The antidumping case was eventually settled in October when the CIS republics [Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan] signed suspension agreements subjecting CIS origin uranium to price and quantity quotas in the US.« less

An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

2008-02-01

This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

Spot market runup over; buyers anticipate soft summer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, G.D.L.

Spot methanol markets spiked to 38 cts/gal late last month as a result of planned and unplanned outages. Gulf Coast markets have already retreated from those highs, however, as traders and consumers anticipate more plentiful supply and lower prices by midsummer. May postings are likely to roll over at April levels of 37 cts-39 cts/gal, and late April notices that producers would no longer honor off-list discounts are being disregarded. The trigger for the price runup was a production snag a week before the recent fire at Hoechst Celanese`s Clear Lake, TX acetic acid plant. The company reports methanol ismore » back on-line. In addition, Cytec`s Fortier, LA methanol plant is in a two-month turnaround, and Texaco`s Delaware City, DE plant has been shut. Methanex (Vancouver) was taking output from those two units and was said to be in the spot market along with Hoechst Celanese`s partner, Valero, which exacerbated the spike. Lyondell is just restarting methanol after a maintenance outage. Although Texaco says the Delaware City plant is off-line for six months, market watchers do not expect it to restart soon, based on its cost structure at current prices. Quantum was planning a two-month maintenance and expansion project at its Deer Park, TX methanol and acetic acid plant, but in light of the Hoechst Celanese acetic outage Quantum may delay that project. Midyear is the startup target for the new BP Sterling plant at Texas City, TX.« less

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

DOE PAGES

Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; ...

2016-03-22

This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

Three essays in corporate finance: Examining the influence of government ownership and evaluating crude oil arbitrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Kateryna

The aim of this dissertation is twofold: first, to evaluate how governments influence firms in which they invest (chapters one and two), and second, to examine arbitrage in the crude oil market by investigating the relationship between crude oil inventories, physical prices, and financial prices (chapter three). In the first chapter (The Wealth Effects of Government Investment in Publicly Traded Firms), I study how government share ownership affects shareholder wealth. I find that government investments with higher likelihood of political interference have a negative influence on shareholder wealth, while the opposite is true for government investments with economic objectives. In the second chapter (Government Ownership and the Cost of Debt: Evidence form Government Investment in Publicly Traded Firms), I investigate how government share ownership affects the cost of debt of publicly traded firms. I find that government ownership generally leads to a higher cost of debt, except for times of economic and firm distress, when the value of the implicit government guarantee is associated with a reduction in the cost of debt. In the third chapter (Financial Trading, Spot Oil Prices, and Inventory: Evidence from the U.S. Crude Oil Market), I confirm the existence of an active cash and carry market in crude oil in Cushing, OK, the main U.S. crude oil futures settlement location. In other words, crude oil inventories in Cushing, but not in any other U.S. crude oil storage locations, are explained by the spread between the financial and the physical price of oil in addition to operational factors.

78 FR 48214 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-07

... and Rules to Certain U.S. Dollar-Settled Gold Futures Designed to Replicate Positions in the Spot... Futures That Were Based on the Value of Gold in the Spot Market With an Additional Daily Cost of Carry... Rules to certain U.S. dollar-settled gold futures designed to replicate positions in the spot market...

Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Ofir David

Estimates from the World Wind Energy Association assert that world total wind power installed capacity climbed from 18 Gigawatt (GW) to 152 GW from 2000 to 2009. Moreover, according to their predictions, by the end of 2010 global wind power capacity will reach 190 GW. Since electricity is a unique commodity, this remarkable expansion brings forward several key economic questions regarding the integration of significant amount of wind power capacity into deregulated electricity markets. The overall dissertation objective is to develop a comprehensive theoretical framework that enables the modeling of the performance and outcome of wind-integrated electricity markets. This is relevant because the state of knowledge of modeling electricity markets is insufficient for the purpose of wind power considerations. First, there is a need to decide about a consistent representation of deregulated electricity markets. Surprisingly, the related body of literature does not agree on the very economic basics of modeling electricity markets. That is important since we need to capture the fundamentals of electricity markets before we introduce wind power to our study. For example, the structure of the electric industry is a key. If market power is present, the integration of wind power has large consequences on welfare distribution. Since wind power uncertainty changes the dynamics of information it also impacts the ability to manipulate market prices. This is because the quantity supplied by wind energy is not a decision variable. Second, the intermittent spatial nature of wind over a geographical region is important because the market value of wind power capacity is derived from its statistical properties. Once integrated into the market, the distribution of wind will impact the price of electricity produced from conventional sources of energy. Third, although wind power forecasting has improved in recent years, at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards, forecasting precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

A Space Based Solar Power Satellite System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, J. M.; Polling, D.; Ustamujic, F.; Yaldiz, R.; et al.

2002-01-01

(SPoTS) supplying other satellites with energy. SPoTS is due to be commercially viable and operative in 2020. of Technology designed the SPoTS during a full-time design period of six weeks as a third year final project. The team, organized according to the principles of systems engineering, first conducted a literature study on space wireless energy transfer to select the most suitable candidates for use on the SPoTS. After that, several different system concepts have been generated and evaluated, the most promising concept being worked out in greater detail. km altitude. Each SPoTS satellite has a 50m diameter inflatable solar collector that focuses all received sunlight. Then, the received sunlight is further redirected by means of four pointing mirrors toward four individual customer satellites. A market-analysis study showed, that providing power to geo-stationary communication satellites during their eclipse would be most beneficial. At arrival at geo-stationary orbit, the focused beam has expended to such an extent that its density equals one solar flux. This means that customer satellites can continue to use their regular solar arrays during their eclipse for power generation, resulting in a satellite battery mass reduction. the customer satellites in geo-stationary orbit, the transmitted energy beams needs to be pointed with very high accuracy. Computations showed that for this degree of accuracy, sensors are needed, which are not mainstream nowadays. Therefore further research must be conducted in this area in order to make these high-accuracy-pointing systems commercially attractive for use on the SPoTS satellites around 2020. Total 20-year system lifetime cost for 18 SPoT satellites are estimated at approximately USD 6 billion [FY2001]. In order to compete with traditional battery-based satellite power systems or possible ground based wireless power transfer systems the price per kWh for the customer must be significantly lower than the present one. Based on the expected revenues from about 300 customers, SPoTS needs a significant contribution from public funding to be commercial viable. However, even though the system might seem to be a huge investment first, it provides a unique steppingstone for future space based wireless transfer of energy to the Earth. Also the public funding is considered as an interest free loan and is due to be paid back over de lifetime period of SPoTS. These features make the SPoTS very attractive in comparison to other space projects of the same science field.

An improved apparatus of infrared videopupillography for monitoring pupil size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, T.-.; Ko, M.-.; Ouyang, Y.; Chen, Y.-.; Sone, B.-.; Ou-Yang, M.; Chiou, J.-.

2014-10-01

The intraocular pressure (IOP) that can diagnose or track glaucoma generally because it is one of the physiology parameters that are associated with glaucoma. But IOP is not easy and consistence to be measured under different measure conditions. Besides, diabetes is associated with diabetic autonomic neuropathy (DAN). Pupil size response might provide an indirect means about neuronal pathways, so the abnormal pupil size may relate with DAN. Hence an infrared videopupillography is needed for tracking glaucoma and exploring the relation between pupil size and DAN. Our previous research proposed an infrared videopupillography to monitoring the pupil size of different light stimulus in dark room. And this portable infrared videopupillography contains a camera, a beam splitter, the visible-light LEDs for stimulating the eyes, and the infrared LEDs for lighting the eyes. It can be mounted on any eyeglass frame. But it can modulate only two dimensions, we cannot zoom in/out the eyes. Moreover, the eye diameter curves were not smooth and jagged because of the light spots, lone eyelashes, and blink. Therefore, we redesign the optical path of our device to have three dimension modulation. Then we can zoom in the eye to increase the eye resolution and to avoid the LED light spots. The light spot could be solved by defining the distance between IR LED and CCD. This device smaller volume and less prices of our previous videopupillography. We hope this new infrared videopupillography proposed in this paper can achieving early detection about autonomic neuropathy in the future.

Future Directions for Transit Pricing : Proceedings of the September 1980 Conference on Transit Pricing Innovations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

The purpose of the conference was to provide practical guidance to policy makers and transit operators on improved pricing policies and strategies. Topics covered include: trends and policies in future transit pricing; conventional and paratransit in...

The Multi-Frequency Correlation Between Eua and sCER Futures Prices: Evidence from the Emd Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue-Jun; Huang, Yi-Song

2015-05-01

Currently European Union Allowances (EUA) and secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) have become two dominant carbon trading assets for investors and their linkage attracts much attention from academia and practitioners in recent years. Under this circumstance, we use the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach to decompose the two carbon futures contract prices and discuss their correlation from the multi-frequency perspective. The empirical results indicate that, first, the EUA and sCER futures price movements can be divided into those triggered by the long-term, medium-term and short-term market impacts. Second, the price movements in the EUA and sCER futures markets are primarily caused by the long-term impact, while the short-term impact can only explain a small fraction. Finally, the long-term (short-term) effect on EUA prices is statistically uncorrelated with the short-term (long-term) effect of sCER prices, and there is a medium or strong lead-and-lag correlation between the EUA and sCER price components with the same time scales. These results may provide some important insights of price forecast and arbitraging activities for carbon futures market investors, analysts and regulators.

Oil prices and long-run risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation.

PubMed

Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M; Sousa, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praca, Isabel; Faia, Ricardo; Pires, Eduardo Jose Solteiro

2016-08-01

The increase of distributed energy resources, mainly based on renewable sources, requires new solutions that are able to deal with this type of resources' particular characteristics (namely, the renewable energy sources intermittent nature). The smart grid concept is increasing its consensus as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market, in different contexts. The price forecasts are performed using artificial neural networks, providing a specific database with the expected prices in the different market types, at each time. This database is then used as input by an evolutionary particle swarm optimization process, which originates the most advantage participation portfolio for the market player. The proposed approach is tested and validated with simulations performed in multiagent simulator of competitive electricity markets, using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator-MIBEL.

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seel, Joachim; Mills, Andrew D.; Wiser, Ryan H.

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating themore » impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.« less

Uranium loans: Delaying the day of reckoning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-09-01

Spot market volume so far this year, by NUKEM's estimates, comes to just under 11 million lbs. It appears that existing loans are either being extended, or paid back with material borrowed from other sources. Therefore, there has been no significant amount of purchases on the spot market to pay back borrowed uranium. How do we know the loans have not been paid back with spot purchases For one thing, the amount of uranium loans outstanding has increased. According to our current survey, there may now be as much as 32 million lbs U3O8 equivalent in outstanding loans. At currentmore » prices, it's cheaper to borrow than to buy uranium. So borrowers are gambling that prices will remain low for some time, allowing them to delay repayment of the loans. Borrowers then, in essence, are delaying the day of reckoning on these loans. How long they can do so is anyone's guess. As long as uranium is in abundance and utilities remain willing to lend it out, loan activity will likely remain at or near current levels. But when supplies tighten and the market swings in a more positive direction, borrowers may get caught scrambling to repay their loans as quickly as possible.« less

Ensuring Reliable Natural Gas-Fired Generation with Fuel Contracts and Storage - DOE/NETL-2017/1816

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myles, Paul T.; Labarbara, Kirk A.; Logan, Cecilia Elise

This report finds that natural gas-fired power plants purchase fuel both on the spot market and through firm supply contracts; there do not appear to be clear drivers propelling power plants toward one or the other type. Most natural gas-fired power generators are located near major natural gas transmission pipelines, and most natural gas contracts are currently procured on the spot market. Although there is some regional variation in the type of contract used, a strong regional pattern does not emerge. Whether gas prices are higher with spot or firm contracts varies by both region and year. Natural gas pricesmore » that push the generators higher in the supply curve would make them less likely to dispatch. Most of the natural gas generators discussed in this report would be unlikely to enter firm contracts if the agreed price would decrease their dispatch frequency. The price points at which these generators would be unlikely to enter a firm contract depends upon the region that the generator is in, and how dependent that region is on natural gas. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is more dependent on natural gas than either Eastern Interconnection or Western Interconnection. This report shows that above-ground storage is prohibitively expensive with respect to providing storage for an extended operational fuel reserve comparable to the amount of on-site fuel storage used for coal-fired plants. Further, both pressurized and atmospheric tanks require a significant amount of land for storage, even to support one day’s operation at full output. Underground storage offers the only viable option for 30-day operational storage of natural gas, and that is limited by the location of suitable geologic formations and depleted fields.« less

The effect of virtual bidding on forward premiums in the New York wholesale energy market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, Andrew D.

In many parts of the United States, the power industry has been deregulated and replaced with regional wholesale energy markets, where utilities purchase electricity from generators at competitive market rates for subsequent distribution to customers. Numerous studies have shown that in each of these markets, the price of energy purchased in the Day Ahead (futures) market exceeds the price in the Real Time (spot) market on average. The existence of this "forward premium" is evidence of market inefficiency and may indicate participants' aversion to risk in the Real Time market or the exercise of market power by generators. To address this inefficiency, the New York Independent System Operator introduced a virtual bidding system within its wholesale market, which permitted participants to engage in purely financial transactions and hedge their exposure to risk. The new policy was expected to promote price convergence by allowing bidders to arbitrage expected differences between Day Ahead and Real Time prices. This study examines whether the presence of virtual bidding was associated with a change in the mean value and magnitude of forward premiums in the NYISO energy market. The study applies a GARCH model to hourly pricing data from 2001 to 2009, controlling for temperature and economic activity. The results indicate that prior to 2005, virtual bidding was associated with significantly lower and less volatile forward premiums in New York's five most congested zones but with increased premiums in the remaining less congested zones. However, when the entire period from 2001 to 2009 is examined, the results suggest that prices have become significantly more divergent in the presence of virtual bidding. Closer examination of the data reveals a dramatic increase in forward premium volatility across all zones beginning in 2005 that is not accounted for by temperature or economic activity and may have biased the results. This study attempts to account for this unexplained shift in price behavior by limiting the analysis to off-peak hours and by substituting an adjusted measure of forward premium, but neither approach yields results consistent with the pre-2005 effects. Further study is needed to identify the potential causes of the sudden increase in forward premium volatility and isolate the effect of virtual bidding on NYISO price convergence.

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 151 - Spot-Month Position Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Contract Referencedcontract spot- month limit Agricultural Referenced Contracts ICE Futures U.S. Cocoa 1,000 ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C 500 Chicago Board of Trade Corn 600 ICE Futures U.S. Cotton No. 2 300 ICE Futures U.S. FCOJ-A 300 Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III Milk 1,500 Chicago Mercantile...

7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94... CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets for...

Testing for unit root bilinearity in the Brazilian stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabak, Benjamin M.

2007-11-01

In this paper a simple test for detecting bilinearity in a stochastic unit root process is used to test for the presence of nonlinear unit roots in Brazilian equity shares. The empirical evidence for a set of 53 individual stocks, after adjusting for GARCH effects, suggests that for more than 66%, the hypothesis of unit root bilinearity is accepted. Therefore, the dynamics of Brazilian share prices is in conformity with this type of nonlinearity. These nonlinearities in spot prices may emerge due to the sophistication of the derivatives market.

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 151 - Spot-Month Position Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Referencedcontract spot- month limit Agricultural Referenced Contracts ICE Futures U.S. Cocoa 1,000 ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C 500 Chicago Board of Trade Corn 600 ICE Futures U.S. Cotton No. 2 300 ICE Futures U.S. FCOJ-A... of Trade Soybean Meal 720 Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Oil 540 ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 5,000...

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 151 - Spot-Month Position Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Referencedcontract spot- month limit Agricultural Referenced Contracts ICE Futures U.S. Cocoa 1,000 ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C 500 Chicago Board of Trade Corn 600 ICE Futures U.S. Cotton No. 2 300 ICE Futures U.S. FCOJ-A... of Trade Soybean Meal 720 Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Oil 540 ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 5,000...

Resumption of traditional drive hunting of dolphins in the Solomon Islands in 2013.

PubMed

Oremus, Marc; Leqata, John; Baker, C Scott

2015-05-01

The 'drive hunting' of dolphins has a long history in the Solomon Islands, specifically at the island of Malaita. In 2010, the most active village, Fanalei, suspended hunting in exchange for financial compensation from an international non-governmental organization but resumed hunting again in early 2013. Here, we report on a visit to Fanalei in March 2013 to document the species and number of dolphins killed in the renewed hunting. Detailed records for the 2013 hunting, up to the time of our visit, included at least 1500 pantropical spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata), 159 spinner dolphins (Stenella longirostris) and 15 'bottlenose' dolphins, probably Tursiops truncatus. Molecular identification confirmed two of the species, pantropical spotted and spinner dolphins. A summary of all available records from 1976 to 2013 documented a minimum total of 15 454 dolphins killed by the Fanalei villagers alone. We also found the local price of a dolphin tooth had increased from about US$0.14 (SBD$1) in 2004 to about US$0.70 (SBD$5) in 2013. The large number of dolphins killed and the apparent incentive for future hunting offered by the increasing commercial value of teeth, highlight an urgent need to monitor hunts and assess the abundance and trends in local populations.

Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2015-12-01

In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003more » and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.« less

Spatial and intertemporal arbitrage in the California natural gas transportation and storage network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uria Martinez, Rocio

Intertemporal and spatial price differentials should provide the necessary signals to allocate a commodity efficiently inside a network. This dissertation investigates the extent to which decisions in the California natural gas transportation and storage system are taken with an eye on arbitrage opportunities. Daily data about flows into and out of storage facilities in California over 2002-2006 and daily spreads on the NYMEX futures market are used to investigate whether the injection profile is consistent with the "supply-of-storage" curve first observed by Working for wheat. Spatial price differentials between California and producing regions fluctuate throughout the year, even though spot prices at trading hubs across North America are highly correlated. In an analysis of "residual supply", gas volumes directed to California are examined for the influence of those fluctuations in locational differentials. Daily storage decisions in California do seem to be influenced by a daily price signal that combines the intertemporal spread and the locational basis between California and the Henry Hub, in addition to strong seasonal and weekly cycles. The timing and magnitude of the response differs across storage facilities depending on the regulatory requirements they face and the type of customers they serve. In contrast, deviations in spatial price differentials from the levels dictated by relative seasonality in California versus competing regions do not trigger significant reallocations of flows into California. Available data for estimation of both the supply-of-storage and residual-supply curves aggregate the behavior of many individuals whose motivations and attentiveness to prices vary. The resulting inventory and flow profiles differ from those that a social planner would choose to minimize operating costs throughout the network. Such optimal allocation is deduced from a quadratic programming model, calibrated to 2004-2005, that acknowledges relative seasonality in demand, trade-offs between transportation and storage costs, infrastructure configuration and regulatory requirements. A comparison of the simulated equilibrium with observed behavior identifies where the arbitrage opportunities lie. Moreover, scenario analysis of such as a LNG terminal or additional storage capacity in California reveals the considerable indirect network effects brought about by changes at any node or arc.

77 FR 7621 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-13

... Change To Permit OCC To Clear and Settle Spot Gold Futures, Which Are Proposed To Be Traded by NASDAQ OMX... Substance of the Proposed Rule Change The proposed rule change will permit OCC to clear and settle Spot Gold... change is to permit OCC to clear and settle Spot Gold Futures, which are proposed to be traded by NFX. A...

US refining sector still a whipping-boy: what will it take

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-01-27

The fast moving US product markets are exerting a powerful pull on crude oil prices. This has meant unalleviated downward pressure on refining margins for most of the past year. Downstream of refining, product marketers want the lower rack and spot prices from refineries. Upstream, independent and major-integrated producers want the highest crude prices they can obtain, with the latter producers also wanting the highest product value realizations. Refiners, especially the major-integrated ones, are rooting for OPEC discipline louder than anybody else. This issue also contains the following: (1) weighted dollar values by product for total product barrel at variousmore » sites around the globe; (2) ED refining netback data for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore for late January 1988; and (3) ED fuel price/tax series for both the Western and Eastern Hemispheres, Jan. 1988 edition. 5 figures, 18 tables.« less

The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

PubMed

Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

2009-12-01

The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun

2016-04-01

The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Periodicals Price Survey 2002: Doing the Digital Flip.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Orsdel, Lee; Born, Kathleen

2002-01-01

Presents the annual periodicals price study. Highlights include average prices; cost histories; cost projections for future budgeting; electronic journal issues; flip pricing, defined as online access at the core of pricing negotiations; various pricing models; purchasing print at deeply discounted prices; and current trends in pricing and in the…

30 CFR 206.153 - Valuation standards-processed gas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., prices received in spot sales of residue gas or gas plant products, other reliable public sources of... MANAGEMENT PRODUCT VALUATION Federal Gas § 206.153 Valuation standards—processed gas. (a)(1) This section... to this section shall be the combined value of the residue gas and all gas plant products determined...

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

2007-01-01

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

2011-01-01

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.93 Bona fide spot markets. The following markets have been determined, after investigation, and are hereby...

48 CFR 12.207 - Contract type.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... contracts or fixed-price contracts with economic price adjustment for the acquisition of commercial items... fixed-price with economic price adjustment contracts (e.g., by limiting the value or length of the time... maximize the use of firm-fixed-price or fixed-price with economic price adjustment contracts on future...

Pumice and pumicite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crangle, R.D.

2012-01-01

Production of pumice in the United States during 2011 was estimated to be 380 kt (420,000 st), a 3-percent decrease compared with 2010. The unit value of pumice varied by end use in 2011. Pumice used as an abrasive was priced at $10.39/t ($9.30/st), while specialty-grade pumice, used in cosmetics, filtration or precision grinding, was priced as high as $150/t ($130/st) on a spot basis. Fourteen companies operated 16 mines in Arizona, California, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico and Oregon. U.S. pumice exports totaled about 15 kt (17,000 st). Imports were higher, 35 kt (39,000 st).

Evidence of infinite and finite jump processes in commodity futures prices: Crude oil and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Wenbin; Guernsey, Scott B.; Linn, Scott C.

2018-07-01

We examine the frequency and character of price jumps in front month oil and natural gas futures prices. Prices are sampled every five seconds over the period 2006-2014. Our test results indicate that jumps in crude oil and natural gas futures prices can be decomposed into an infinite activity jump diffusion process and a less frequent but larger jump process. We also find that we cannot reject the hypothesis that Brownian motion is also present in both return series. The results are based on a battery of tests that are "model free". We further find that jumps account for respectively 36 and 41 percent of the realized variances of the crude oil and the natural gas returns.

Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Rongda; Li, Cong; Wang, Weijin; Wang, Ze

2014-03-01

This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear correlation coefficient with tail dependence correlation coefficient, to measure VaR (Value-at-risk) of the arbitrage position. Analysis of VaR implies that the risk of future-cash arbitrage is less than that of investing completely in either futures or spot market. Then according to the compositional VaR and the marginal VaR, we should increase the futures position and decrease the spot position appropriately to minimize the VaR, which can minimize risk subject to certain revenues.

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

.... (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a security future, the settlement price of such... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of...) Futures account shall have the meaning provided in § 1.3(vv) of this chapter. (14) Futures commission...

Unblinding the dark matter blind spots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Tao; Kling, Felix; Su, Shufang

The dark matter (DM) blind spots in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) refer to the parameter regions where the couplings of the DM particles to the $Z$-boson or the Higgs boson are almost zero, leading to vanishingly small signals for the DM direct detections. In this paper, we carry out comprehensive analyses for the DM searches under the blind-spot scenarios in MSSM. Guided by the requirement of acceptable DM relic abundance, we explore the complementary coverage for the theory parameters at the LHC, the projection for the future underground DM direct searches, and the indirect searches from the relicmore » DM annihilation into photons and neutrinos. We find that (i) the spin-independent (SI) blind spots may be rescued by the spin-dependent (SD) direct detection in the future underground experiments, and possibly by the indirect DM detections from IceCube and SuperK neutrino experiments; (ii) the detection of gamma rays from Fermi-LAT may not reach the desirable sensitivity for searching for the DM blind-spot regions; (iii) the SUSY searches at the LHC will substantially extend the discovery region for the blind-spot parameters. As a result, the dark matter blind spots thus may be unblinded with the collective efforts in future DM searches.« less

Unblinding the dark matter blind spots

DOE PAGES

Han, Tao; Kling, Felix; Su, Shufang; ...

2017-02-10

The dark matter (DM) blind spots in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) refer to the parameter regions where the couplings of the DM particles to the $Z$-boson or the Higgs boson are almost zero, leading to vanishingly small signals for the DM direct detections. In this paper, we carry out comprehensive analyses for the DM searches under the blind-spot scenarios in MSSM. Guided by the requirement of acceptable DM relic abundance, we explore the complementary coverage for the theory parameters at the LHC, the projection for the future underground DM direct searches, and the indirect searches from the relicmore » DM annihilation into photons and neutrinos. We find that (i) the spin-independent (SI) blind spots may be rescued by the spin-dependent (SD) direct detection in the future underground experiments, and possibly by the indirect DM detections from IceCube and SuperK neutrino experiments; (ii) the detection of gamma rays from Fermi-LAT may not reach the desirable sensitivity for searching for the DM blind-spot regions; (iii) the SUSY searches at the LHC will substantially extend the discovery region for the blind-spot parameters. As a result, the dark matter blind spots thus may be unblinded with the collective efforts in future DM searches.« less

The role of benchmark crudes in crude oil pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wildblood, P.

1993-12-31

Most of the world`s oil, whether sold on a spot basis or as part of a term contract, will be priced on a relationship with one or other of a small number of marker crude oils. Generally, the markers used are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Alaskan North Slope (ANS) for crude oil coming into North and South America; Dubai or Oman for crudes being delivered into the Far Eastern markets; and Brent for any crude being delivered into Europe. For a variety of reasons, over the laster two years, Brent blend has become more predominant in the pricing processmore » for crude oils throughout the world. This has resulted in the fact that, directly or indirectly, Brent is now used to price approximately 65% of the world`s crude oil. So why is it that a crude oil with a comparatively small production base of around 700,000 barrels per day has now come to dominate the pricing of the lion`s share of the world`s crude oil? The answer to this question is discussed.« less

Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Qingju

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

Life is getting scary in the oil markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uttal, B.

1980-01-28

In the four years prior to 1978, crude was plentiful and often sold on the spot market for less than official OPEC prices. Then in late 1978, Iran quit exporting, and a severe winter in Europe drove stocks of heating oil far below their usual levels. Fear of shortages sent spot prices for heating oil up 112%, and crude prices followed. Many OPEC members realized that sticking to the cartel's official selling price was no longer in their interests. Some OPEC members are now pulling contracts out from under the majors and are selling directly to consuming nations. The movemore » away from the majors has increased the chances that an end user will have its supplies disrupted, causing it to buy and stockpile supplies beyond storage capacity. The producing states' new dominance has had its greatest impact not on the majors but on a special class of customers who rely on the majors for much of their crude. These are the third-party buyers, a category that includes independent refiners, governments, and any other customer not directly associated with the majors' captive distribution networks. DOE estimates that some independent refiners have lost 40% of their third-party supplies; Japan has been informed that, as of March 1980, it will lose all of the oil it receives under third-party contracts. It now seems that none of the majors has enough crude to run its own refineries and to keep up supplies to its established third-party customers. And, when supplies are loose, cartel members are likely to cut production. One analyst has said that OPEC could fulfill all of their revenue needs and still slash production by about 70%. (MCW)« less

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Models of supply function equilibrium with applications to the electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aromi, J. Daniel

Electricity market design requires tools that result in a better understanding of incentives of generators and consumers. Chapter 1 and 2 provide tools and applications of these tools to analyze incentive problems in electricity markets. In chapter 1, models of supply function equilibrium (SFE) with asymmetric bidders are studied. I prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in an asymmetric SFE model. In addition, I propose a simple algorithm to calculate numerically the unique equilibrium. As an application, a model of investment decisions is considered that uses the asymmetric SFE as an input. In this model, firms can invest in different technologies, each characterized by distinct variable and fixed costs. In chapter 2, option contracts are introduced to a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market is established. Comparative statics results on the effect of option contracts on the equilibrium price are presented. A multi-stage game where option contracts are traded before the spot market stage is considered. When contracts are optimally procured by a central authority, the selected profile of option contracts is such that the spot market price equals marginal cost for any load level resulting in a significant reduction in cost. If load serving entities (LSEs) are price takers, in equilibrium, there is no trade of option contracts. Even when LSEs have market power, the central authority's solution cannot be implemented in equilibrium. In chapter 3, we consider a game in which a buyer must repeatedly procure an input from a set of firms. In our model, the buyer is able to sign long term contracts that establish the likelihood with which the next period contract is awarded to an entrant or the incumbent. We find that the buyer finds it optimal to favor the incumbent, this generates more intense competition between suppliers. In a two period model we are able to completely characterize the optimal mechanism.

Generalization of Faustmann's Formula for Stochastic Forest Growth and Prices with Markov Decision Process Models

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2001-01-01

Faustmann's formula gives the land value, or the forest value of land with trees, under deterministic assumptions regarding future stand growth and prices, over an infinite horizon. Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's approach by recognizing that future stand states and prices are known only as probabilistic distributions. The...

Hot spots of crop production changes at 1.5°C and 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.; Deryng, D.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J. W.; Saeed, F.; Folberth, C.; Liu, W.; Wang, X.; Pugh, T.

2017-12-01

Studying changes in global and regional crop production is central for assessing the benefits of limiting global average temperature below 1.5ºC versus 2ºC. Projections of future climatic impacts on crop production are commonly focussed on focussing on mean changes. However, substantial risks are posed by extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts that are of great relevance for imminent policy relevant questions such as price shocks or food security. Preliminary research on the benefits of keeping global average temperature increase below 1.5ºC versus 2ºC above pre-industrial levels has indicated that changes in extreme weather event occurrences will be more pronounced than changes in the mean climate. Here we will present results of crop yield projections for a set of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) for four major staple crops at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. We will assess changes in crop production on the global and regional level, and identify hot spots of change. The unique multi-ensemble setup allows to identify changes in extreme yield losses with multi-year to multi-decadal return periods, and thus elucidate the consequences for global and regional food security.

Online 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Morris

This paper examines the co-existence of online and CD-ROM technologies in terms of their existing pricing structures, marketing strategies, functionality, and future roles. "Fixed Price Unlimited Usage" (FPUU) pricing and flat-rate pricing are discussed as viable alternatives to current pricing practices. In addition, it is argued that the…

Restructuring the natural gas industry: Order No. 436 and other regulatory initiatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griggs, J.W.

1986-01-01

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order No. 436 is the latest in a series of major regulatory initiatives that have impacted gas pricing, pipeline contracting provisions, spot market sales, and transportation. The policy followed by FERC reflects a faith in the free market to efficiently allocate resource at reasonable cost to consumers. In responding to deregulation mandates while retaining regulation of the price of old gas and of interstate transportation and sales for resale, FERC is unbundling gas costs from the fixed costs of providing service in hopes of improving price signals. It is also pushing pipelines to provide openmore » access to inject competition. The long-term commitments needed by producers may be incompatible with the oscillations caused by market restructuring, but there is a possibility that the new approach will work.« less

Oil markets in turmoil: an economic analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verleger, P.K. Jr.

1982-01-01

Departing from conventional wisdom about the forces most responsible for oil price increases, this book analyzes the response of consumers, oil companies, and oil-exporting nations to show that lethargy, not greed, best describes the behavior of these participants during a supply disruption. The adjustment to changes in market conditions is so slow that minor incidents are transformed into major crises. Assessing existing policy options, Verleger dispels the idea of matching supply losses with an equal cut in consumption. He recommends a free-market approach, which entails raising prices quickly, imposing large tariffs on imports, encouraging the development of private stockpiles, andmore » using spot prices as an indicator of oil shortages. He shows that the market approach will impose fewer costs than the regulatory approach in the long run. 83 references, 17 figures, 70 tables.« less

Water-quality trading: Can we get the prices of pollution right?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konishi, Yoshifumi; Coggins, Jay S.; Wang, Bin

2015-05-01

Water-quality trading requires inducing permit prices that account properly for spatially explicit damage relationships. We compare recent work by Hung and Shaw (2005) and Farrow et al. (2005) for river systems exhibiting branching and nonlinear damages. The Hung-Shaw scheme is robust to nonlinear damages, but not to hot spots occurring at the confluence of two branches. The Farrow et al. (2005) scheme is robust to branching, but not to nonlinear damages. We also compare the two schemes to each other. Neither dominates from a welfare perspective, but the comparison appears to tilt in favor of the Farrow et al. scheme.

Pumice and pumicite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crangle, R.D.

2013-01-01

Production of pumice in the United States during 2012 was estimated to be 515 kt (568,000 st), a 5-percent increase compared to 2011. The unit value of pumice varied widely by end use in 2012. Pumice used as an abrasive was priced at $10.30/t ($9.34/st), while specialty-grade pumice, used in cosmetics, filtration or precision grinding, could be priced as high as $400/t ($360/st) on a spot basis. Eleven companies operated 11 mines in Arizona, California, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico and Oregon. U.S. pumice exports totaled about 12.5 kt (13,800 st). Imports were higher at 75.1 kt (828,000 st).

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement April 2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Fourier Spot Volatility Estimator: Asymptotic Normality and Efficiency with Liquid and Illiquid High-Frequency Data

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The recent availability of high frequency data has permitted more efficient ways of computing volatility. However, estimation of volatility from asset price observations is challenging because observed high frequency data are generally affected by noise-microstructure effects. We address this issue by using the Fourier estimator of instantaneous volatility introduced in Malliavin and Mancino 2002. We prove a central limit theorem for this estimator with optimal rate and asymptotic variance. An extensive simulation study shows the accuracy of the spot volatility estimates obtained using the Fourier estimator and its robustness even in the presence of different microstructure noise specifications. An empirical analysis on high frequency data (U.S. S&P500 and FIB 30 indices) illustrates how the Fourier spot volatility estimates can be successfully used to study intraday variations of volatility and to predict intraday Value at Risk. PMID:26421617

7 CFR 59.30 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... direct shipment by the seller to the buyer (e.g., F.O.B. Plant, F.O.B. Feedlot) or from a common basis point to the buyer (e.g., F.O.B. Omaha). Imported. The term “imported” means livestock that are raised... cash or spot market purchase by a packer of livestock from a producer under which the base price for...

Lead and the London Metal Exchange — a happy marriage? The outlook for prices and pricing issues confronting the lead industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keen, A.

The outlook for the supply-demand balance for refined lead is addressed and takes into account the growing non-fundamental forces on price determination. The market for refined lead is presently experiencing its first year of surplus since the major crisis of the early 1990s. Earlier in the decade, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and recession in developed economies led to a significant rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. An acceleration absorbed these stocks in an 18-month period in the mid-1990s, and LME lead prices reacted to the market deficit by peaking above US900. Since then the market has balanced, yet prices have declined steadily to less that 50% of their peak levels. It is argued that, on fundamental grounds, prices have fallen below justified levels. As much of the reason for this depression between 1997 and 1999 has been the generally depressive effect of the Asian economic crisis on financial markets, the level of lead prices may now be due for a correction. Other metals have begun to increase during the first half of 1999 and lead, given its neutral fundamental outlook, is now poised to participate in the generally more buoyant moods across LME metals. An increase of approximately 10% in average LME 3-month settlement prices is forecast and will result in annual average prices of US 570/tonne over the course of 1999. Monthly averages and spot prices are predicted to exceed this level, particularly during peak third-quarter demand.

Developing Portfolios of Water Supply Transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Kirsch, B. R.; Ramsey, J.; Dillard, K. E.; Kelley, C. T.

2005-12-01

Most cities rely on firm water supply capacity to meet demand, but increasing scarcity and supply costs are encouraging greater use of temporary transfers (e.g., spot leases, options). This raises questions regarding how best to coordinate the use of these transfers in meeting cost and reliability objectives. This work combines a hydrologic-water market simulation with an optimization approach to identify portfolios of permanent rights, options and leases that minimize expected costs of meeting a city's annual demand with a specified reliability. Spot market prices are linked to hydrologic conditions and described by monthly lease price distributions which are used to price options via a risk neutral approach. Monthly choices regarding when and how much water to acquire through temporary transfers are made on the basis of anticipatory decision rules related to the ratio of expected supply-to-expected demand. The simulation is linked with an algorithm that uses an implicit filtering search method designed for solution surfaces that exhibit high frequency, low amplitude noise. This simulation-optimization approach is applied to a region that currently supports an active water market, with results suggesting that the use of temporary transfers can reduce expected water supply costs substantially, while still maintaining high reliability levels. Also evaluated are tradeoffs between expected costs and cost variability that occur with variation in a portfolio's distribution of rights, options and leases. While this work represents firm supply capacity as permanent water rights, a similar approach could be used to develop portfolios integrating options and/or leases with hard supply infrastructure.

Differential subjective responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase among South Korean youth smokers.

PubMed

Do, Young Kyung; Farooqui, Muhammad Assad

2012-02-01

While higher sensitivity to tobacco price increases among younger smokers as a group has been well recognized, little information is available on heterogeneity among youth smokers. This study examined differential responsiveness to an unspecified future cigarette price increase by smoking rate. This study used a subsample of 6,187 current youth smokers derived from the 2007 Korea Youth Health Survey, an annually repeated cross-sectional survey designed to monitor adolescent health behaviors in a large nationally representative sample of middle-school and high-school students in South Korea (N = 74,698). A generalized ordered logit model was estimated to examine independent associations of self-reported responses to an unspecified future cigarette price increase with smoking rate and time since smoking initiation, after controlling for other individual and family characteristics. Higher smoking rates and longer time since smoking initiation were associated with a greater likelihood to continue smoking despite a future cigarette price increase. When these two factors were accounted for in the model, other individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Among youth smokers in South Korea, higher smoking rates were associated with lower self-reported responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase. Tobacco tax increases help prevent youth smokers from progressing to advanced stages of smoking, while certain subgroups of youth smokers, especially with nicotine dependence, may still need other effective cessation interventions.

An Innovative Approach for the Development of Future Marine Corps Amphibious Capability

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

night occupying all four of the expanded spots on the amphibious transport dock ship USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19). Expanded spots three and six have...Mesa Verde (LPD 19). Two aircraft flying together are known as a section. This figure shows the use of expanded spots on the LPD. The 64 center...the expanded spots on the amphibious transport dock ship USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19). Expanded spots three and six have turning aircraft, preparing for

The value of innovation under value-based pricing.

PubMed

Moreno, Santiago G; Ray, Joshua A

2016-01-01

The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the 'value of innovation' reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing

PubMed Central

Moreno, Santiago G.; Ray, Joshua A.

2016-01-01

Objective The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the ‘value of innovation’ reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. Method The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). Results The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. Conclusion We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers. PMID:27123192

Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

Portfolio management under sudden changes in volatility and heterogeneous investment horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Viviana; Lucey, Brian M.

2007-03-01

We analyze the implications for portfolio management of accounting for conditional heteroskedasticity and sudden changes in volatility, based on a sample of weekly data of the Dow Jones Country Titans, the CBT-municipal bond, spot and futures prices of commodities for the period 1992-2005. To that end, we first proceed to utilize the ICSS algorithm to detect long-term volatility shifts, and incorporate that information into PGARCH models fitted to the returns series. At the next stage, we simulate returns series and compute a wavelet-based value at risk, which takes into consideration the investor's time horizon. We repeat the same procedure for artificial data generated from semi-parametric estimates of the distribution functions of returns, which account for fat tails. Our estimation results show that neglecting GARCH effects and volatility shifts may lead to an overestimation of financial risk at different time horizons. In addition, we conclude that investors benefit from holding commodities as their low or even negative correlation with stock and bond indices contribute to portfolio diversification.

Reducing power usage on demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, G.; Dewhurst, A.

2016-10-01

The Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) datacentre provides large- scale High Performance Computing facilities for the scientific community. It currently consumes approximately 1.5MW and this has risen by 25% in the past two years. STFC has been investigating leveraging preemption in the Tier 1 batch farm to save power. HEP experiments are increasing using jobs that can be killed to take advantage of opportunistic CPU resources or novel cost models such as Amazon's spot pricing. Additionally, schemes from energy providers are available that offer financial incentives to reduce power consumption at peak times. Under normal operating conditions, 3% of the batch farm capacity is wasted due to draining machines. By using preempt-able jobs, nodes can be rapidly made available to run multicore jobs without this wasted resource. The use of preempt-able jobs has been extended so that at peak times machines can be hibernated quickly to save energy. This paper describes the implementation of the above and demonstrates that STFC could in future take advantage of such energy saving schemes.

Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mei; Wang, Yaqi; Gao, Cuixia

2016-11-01

Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.

30 CFR 1206.112 - What adjustments and transportation allowances apply when I value oil production from my lease...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... oil at the market center after making the quality adjustments described in paragraphs (a), (b) and (c... your lease and the appropriate ONRR-recognized market center at which the ANS spot price is published... explains how you adjust the value between the lease and the market center, and paragraph (b) of this...

Possible Demands for Eastern Hardwoods Resulting from Harvest Restrictions in the Pacific

Treesearch

Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Philip A. Araman

1993-01-01

Efforts to conserve the habitat of the northern spotted owl in the Pacific Northwest have placed softwood timber supplies under a great deal of pressure and driven up the price of softwood lumber. Hardwoods could meet some of the demand for products that have previously been manufactured from softwood species. Hardwood structural lumber may soon become an economically...

30 CFR 1206.112 - What adjustments and transportation allowances apply when I value oil production from my lease...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... crude oil at the market center after making the quality adjustments described in paragraphs (a), (b) and... your lease and the appropriate ONRR-recognized market center at which the ANS spot price is published... explains how you adjust the value between the lease and the market center, and paragraph (b) of this...

30 CFR 1206.112 - What adjustments and transportation allowances apply when I value oil production from my lease...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... oil at the market center after making the quality adjustments described in paragraphs (a), (b) and (c... your lease and the appropriate ONRR-recognized market center at which the ANS spot price is published... explains how you adjust the value between the lease and the market center, and paragraph (b) of this...

30 CFR 206.112 - What adjustments and transportation allowances apply when I value oil production from my lease...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... oil at the market center after making the quality adjustments described in paragraphs (a), (b) and (c... the appropriate MMS-recognized market center at which the ANS spot price is published (for example... adjust the value between the lease and the market center, and paragraph (b) of this section explains how...

78 FR 36286 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... Change in Order To Disseminate a Spot Price for Treasury Options June 11, 2013. Pursuant to Section 19(b... Securities and Exchange Commission (``SEC'' or ``Commission'') the proposed rule change as described in Items... notice to solicit comments on the proposed rule change from interested persons. \\1\\ 15 U.S.C. 78s(b)(1...

Can eastern hardwoods offset timber cutbacks?

Treesearch

Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Philip A. Araman

1994-01-01

Efforts to conserve habitat of the northern spotted owl in the Pacific Northwest have placed softwood timber supplies under a great deal of pressure and driven up the price of softwood lumber. Hardwoods could meet some of the demand for products that previously have been made from softwood species. Research in this field has been under way for some time; more is needed...

77 FR 15440 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-15

... currencies are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. The component currencies do not have the same weight. The euro has a weighting of 57.6%, the Japanese yen a... inverse multiple of the daily performance of the Japanese yen spot price versus the U.S. dollar (``JPY/USD...

Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.

2004-07-01

There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource andmore » are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.« less

Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

2018-01-01

An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

A probabilistic assessment of large scale wind power development for long-term energy resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Scott Warren

A steady decline in the cost of wind turbines and increased experience in their successful operation have brought this technology to the forefront of viable alternatives for large-scale power generation. Methodologies for understanding the costs and benefits of large-scale wind power development, however, are currently limited. In this thesis, a new and widely applicable technique for estimating the social benefit of large-scale wind power production is presented. The social benefit is based upon wind power's energy and capacity services and the avoidance of environmental damages. The approach uses probabilistic modeling techniques to account for the stochastic interaction between wind power availability, electricity demand, and conventional generator dispatch. A method for including the spatial smoothing effect of geographically dispersed wind farms is also introduced. The model has been used to analyze potential offshore wind power development to the south of Long Island, NY. If natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) are the alternative generation sources, wind power exhibits a negative social benefit due to its high capacity cost and the relatively low emissions of these advanced fossil-fuel technologies. Environmental benefits increase significantly if charges for CO2 emissions are included. Results also reveal a diminishing social benefit as wind power penetration increases. The dependence of wind power benefits on natural gas and coal prices is also discussed. In power systems with a high penetration of wind generated electricity, the intermittent availability of wind power may influence hourly spot prices. A price responsive electricity demand model is introduced that shows a small increase in wind power value when consumers react to hourly spot prices. The effectiveness of this mechanism depends heavily on estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of aggregate electricity demand. This work makes a valuable contribution by synthesizing information from research in power market economics, power system reliability, and environmental impact assessment, to develop a comprehensive methodology for analyzing wind power in the context of long-term energy planning.

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... price of such security future as shown by any regularly published reporting or quotation service, and... regularly published reporting or quotation service. If there is no recent closing sale price, the security... to financial relations between a security futures intermediary and a customer with respect to...

Application of quantum master equation for long-term prognosis of asset-prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikova, Polina

2016-05-01

This study combines the disciplines of behavioral finance and an extension of econophysics, namely the concepts and mathematical structure of quantum physics. We apply the formalism of quantum theory to model the dynamics of some correlated financial assets, where the proposed model can be potentially applied for developing a long-term prognosis of asset price formation. At the informational level, the asset price states interact with each other by the means of a ;financial bath;. The latter is composed of agents' expectations about the future developments of asset prices on the finance market, as well as financially important information from mass-media, society, and politicians. One of the essential behavioral factors leading to the quantum-like dynamics of asset prices is the irrationality of agents' expectations operating on the finance market. These expectations lead to a deeper type of uncertainty concerning the future price dynamics of the assets, than given by a classical probability theory, e.g., in the framework of the classical financial mathematics, which is based on the theory of stochastic processes. The quantum dimension of the uncertainty in price dynamics is expressed in the form of the price-states superposition and entanglement between the prices of the different financial assets. In our model, the resolution of this deep quantum uncertainty is mathematically captured with the aid of the quantum master equation (its quantum Markov approximation). We illustrate our model of preparation of a future asset price prognosis by a numerical simulation, involving two correlated assets. Their returns interact more intensively, than understood by a classical statistical correlation. The model predictions can be extended to more complex models to obtain price configuration for multiple assets and portfolios.

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

..., soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... MERCHANTS AND DEALERS IN COTTON § 19.01 Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. (a) Information...

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between the CSI 300 index futures and the spot markets based on high-frequency data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Cui, Weijun; Guo, Yu

2014-11-01

The cross-correlation between the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and the spot markets based on high-frequency data is discussed in this paper. We empirically analyze the cross-correlation by using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), and investigate further the characteristics of asymmetry, frequency difference, and transmission direction of the cross-correlation. The results indicate that the cross-correlation between the two markets is significant and multifractal. Meanwhile, weak asymmetries exist in the cross-correlation, and higher data frequency results in a lower multifractality degree of the cross-correlation. The causal relationship between the two markets is bidirectional, but the CSI 300 index futures market has greater impact on the spot market.

Rare earth elements exploitation, geopolitical implications and raw materials trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chemin, Marie-Charlotte

2015-04-01

Rare earth elements (REE) correspond to seventeen elements of the periodic table. They are used in high technology, cracking, electric cars' magnet, metal alloy for batteries, and also in phone construction or ceramics for electronic card. REEs are an important resource for high technology. This project targets 16 years old students in the subject "personalized aid" and will last six weeks. The purpose of this project is to develop autonomy and research in groups for a transdisciplinary work. This project gathers knowledge in geology, geography and economics. During the first session students analyze the geology applications of the REE. They begin the analysis with learning the composition in different rocks such as basalt and diorite to make the link with crystallization. Then they compare it with adakite to understand the formation of these rocks. In the second session, they study REE exploitation. We can find them as oxides in many deposits. The principal concentrations of rare earth elements are associated with uncommon varieties of igneous rocks, such as carbonatites. They can use Qgis, to localize this high concentration. In the third session, they study the environmental costs of REE exploitation. Indeed, the exploitation produces thorium and carcinogenic toxins: sulphates, ammonia and hydrochloric acid. Processing one ton of rare earths produces 2,000 tons of toxic waste. This session focuses, first, on Baotou's region, and then on an example they are free to choose. In the fourth session, they study the geopolitical issues of REE with a focus on China. In fact this country is the largest producer of REE, and is providing 95% of the overall production. REE in China are at the center of a geopolitical strategy. In fact, China implements a sort of protectionism. Indeed, the export tax on REE is very high so, as a foreign company, it is financially attractive to establish a manufacturing subsidiary in China in order to use REE. As a matter of fact, establishing a company in China can lower the production cost (since the company buys the products used in its production at a lower price). In the fifth session, they study the raw materials trading based on the futures contracts example. A producer, to avoid a rise in prices of raw materials used in his production can use derivative products on the financial market: futures contracts for instance. This product ensures a quantity and quality for a price and a delivery date agreed upon today. Actually, producers can use a method called Fix price hedging in order to fix the price of a specific product. The main idea is to balance out the "physical position" (spot market) and the "paper position" (futures market). Even if the REE are commercialized in form of a non-perishable's oxide, the flow of the stock must be guaranteed and this is why it is important for producers to secure their supply of raw materials. In the last session, students search local companies that use REE in their production process and study their strategy on the market.

Constructive Decision Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-16

quantitative issues like price/earnings ratio to be relevant to the future value of Google, while the other considers astrological tables relevant to...Google’s future value. The DM who uses astrology might not understand price/earnings ratios (the no- tion is simply not in his vocabulary) and, similarly

Energy: the impact of availability and prices on future business prospects. [Collection of 12 papers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peelle, D.M.

1975-01-01

This collection includes twelve papers, all but one being presented at an August 1974 seminar. These are entitled Energy: Policy, Availability and Prices, Harry R. Hall; Public Policy and the Energy Crisis, Edward J. Mitchell; How Federal Price and Allocation Controls on Oil Have Worsened the Energy Crisis, William A. Johnson; Energy Availability in the Near and Long-Range Future, R.R. Wright; Consideration of Natural Gas Supply for Michigan, Donald L. Katz; The Outlook for Coal, Robert V. Price; Electricity: Future Availability and Cost, G. L. Heins; Solar Energy Research and Development, F. Tom Sparrow; Energy in the Automobile, Doron K.more » Samples; Energy and Future Business Prospects: Implication for Feedstocks-Using Industries, William H. Shaker; Energy Conservation in the Processing Industries, Alfred F. Waterland; and Energy Management: Guidelines and Case Histories, G. N. Tiberio. Letter from OPEC is a dissertation by Joseph Kraft on a visit to OPEC headquarters in Vienna. (MCW)« less

Volatilities, Traded Volumes, and Price Increments in Derivative Securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyungsik; Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, Soo Yong; Scalas, Enrico

2007-03-01

We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to the statistics of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. For our case, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to the inherent higher-order correlation not detected by applying directly the DFA to logarithmic increments of the KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of futures prices and to generate the geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It is really shown from comparing the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments makes the volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes may be supported the hypothesis of price changes.

Volatilities, traded volumes, and the hypothesis of price increments in derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Scalas, Enrico; Kim, Kyungsik

2007-08-01

A detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied to the statistics of Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. In this study, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of the long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to a inherent higher-order correlation not detected by with the direct application of the DFA to logarithmic increments of KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of future prices and to generate a geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It was found from a comparison of the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments leads to volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes can be supported by the hypothesis of price changes.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

30 CFR 206.174 - How do I value gas production when an index-based method cannot be used?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... to consider include prices received in spot sales of gas, residue gas or gas plant products, other... part, or timely, for a quantity of gas, residue gas, or gas plant product. (j) Non-binding MMS reviews..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS REVENUE MANAGEMENT PRODUCT VALUATION Indian Gas § 206.174 How do I value...

Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-27

Eurocurrency data set [129] collected from Forex database . Table 10: Estimates m̂k, βm̂k,k, µm̂k,k, δm̂k,k, σm̂k,k, γm̂k,k for U. S. Treasury Bill...U. S. Eurocurrency rateUS dollar Eurocurrency data set January 1990-December 2004, Forex Database . [130] U. S. Energy Information Administration

Pricing Software and Information on CD-ROM.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbins, Patrick

1987-01-01

Examines the relationships between purchases of optical data disk products, publishers, and software suppliers. The discussion covers current pricing strategies for optical data disk software and information products, and possible future developments in marketing and pricing. (CLB)

U.S. energy outlook and future energy impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Randolph John

2011-12-01

Energy markets were not immune to the 2007 financial crisis. Growth in the Indian and Chinese economies is placing strains on global energy supplies that could force a repeat of the 2008 price spike of $145/bbl for crude oil. Emerging market growth coupled with inefficiencies, frictions, and speculation in the energy markets has the potential to create drastic economic shocks throughout the world. The 2007 economic crisis has pushed back investment in energy projects where a low-growth scenario in world GDP could create drastic price increases in world energy prices. Without a long-term energy supply plan, the U.S. is destined to see growth reduced and its trade imbalances continue to deteriorate with increasing energy costs. Analysis of the U.S. natural gas futures markets and the impact of financial speculation on natural gas market pricing determined that financial speculation adds to price movements in the energy markets, which could cause violent swings in energy prices.

75 FR 9411 - Official Release of the MOVES2010 Motor Vehicle Emissions Model for Emissions Inventories in SIPs...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-02

... hot-spot analyses at this time; the Agency will approve the model for such analyses in the near future...-Level Conformity Hot-Spot Analyses Availability of MOVES2010 and Support Materials Copies of the... for regional emissions analyses and CO hot-spot analyses for transportation conformity (73 FR 3464...

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments in the LNG industry, Chapter 3 studies the operations of LNG supply chains facing both supply and price risk. To model the supply uncertainty, we employ a closed-queuing-network (CQN) model to represent upstream LNG production and shipping, via special oceans-going tankers, to a downstream re-gasification facility in the U.S, which sells natural gas into the wholesale spot market. The CQN shipping model analytically generates the unloaded amount probability distribution. Price uncertainty is captured by the spot price, which experiences both volatility and significant seasonality, i.e., higher prices in winter. We use a trinomial lattice to model the price uncertainty, and calibrate to the extended forward curves. Taking the outputs from the CQN model and the spot price model as stochastic inputs, we formulate a real option inventory-release model to study the benefit of optimally managing a downstream LNG storage facility. This allows characterization of the structure of the optimal inventory management policy. An interesting finding is that when it is optimal to sell, it is not necessarily optimal to sell the entire available inventory. The model can be used by LNG players to value and manage the real option to store LNG at a re-gasification facility, and is easy to be implemented. For example, this model is particularly useful to value leasing contracts for portions of the facility capacity. Real data is used to assess the value of the real option to store LNG at the downstream re-gasification facility, and, contrary to what has been claimed by some practitioners, we find that it has significant value (several million dollars). Chapter 4 studies the importance of modeling the shipping variability when valuing and managing a downstream LNG storage facility. The shipping model presented in Chapter 3 uses a "rolling forward" method to generate the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) unloaded amount in each decision period. We study the merit of the i.i.d. assumption by using simulation and developing an upper bound. We show that the model, which uses the i.i.d. unloaded amount, provides a good estimation of the storage value, and yields a near optimal inventory control policy. We also test the performance of a model that uses constant throughput to determine the inventory release policy. This model performs worse than the model of Chapter 3 for storage valuation purposes, but can be used to suggest the optimal inventory control policy, especially when the ratio of flow rate to storage size is high, i.e., storage is scarce. Chapter 5 summarizes the contributions of this thesis.

Estimation of Bid Curves in Power Exchanges using Time-varying Simultaneous-Equations Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ofuji, Kenta; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki

Simultaneous-equations model (SEM) is generally used in economics to estimate interdependent endogenous variables such as price and quantity in a competitive, equilibrium market. In this paper, we have attempted to apply SEM to JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange) spot market, a single-price auction market, using the publicly available data of selling and buying bid volumes, system price and traded quantity. The aim of this analysis is to understand the magnitude of influences to the auctioned prices and quantity from the selling and buying bids, than to forecast prices and quantity for risk management purposes. In comparison with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation where the estimation results represent average values that are independent of time, we employ a time-varying simultaneous-equations model (TV-SEM) to capture structural changes inherent in those influences, using State Space models with Kalman filter stepwise estimation. The results showed that the buying bid volumes has that highest magnitude of influences among the factors considered, exhibiting time-dependent changes, ranging as broad as about 240% of its average. The slope of the supply curve also varies across time, implying the elastic property of the supply commodity, while the demand curve remains comparatively inelastic and stable over time.

Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE

Replication of Cancellation Orders Using First-Passage Time Theory in Foreign Currency Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boilard, Jean-François; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

Our research focuses on the annihilation dynamics of limit orders in a spot foreign currency market for various currency pairs. We analyze the cancellation order distribution conditioned on the normalized distance from the mid-price; where the normalized distance is defined as the final distance divided by the initial distance. To reproduce real data, we introduce two simple models that assume the market price moves randomly and cancellation occurs either after fixed time t or following the Poisson process. Results of our model qualitatively reproduce basic statistical properties of cancellation orders of the data when limit orders are cancelled according to the Poisson process. We briefly discuss implication of our findings in the construction of more detailed microscopic models.

Breakeven Prices for Photovoltaics on Supermarkets in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ong, S.; Clark, N.; Denholm, P.

The photovoltaic (PV) breakeven price is the PV system price at which the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. This point is also called 'grid parity' and can be expressed as dollars per watt ($/W) of installed PV system capacity. Achieving the PV breakeven price depends on many factors, including the solar resource, local electricity prices, customer load profile, PV incentives, and financing. In the United States, where these factors vary substantially across regions, breakeven prices vary substantially across regions as well. In this study, we estimate current and future breakeven prices formore » PV systems installed on supermarkets in the United States. We also evaluate key drivers of current and future commercial PV breakeven prices by region. The results suggest that breakeven prices for PV systems installed on supermarkets vary significantly across the United States. Non-technical factors -- including electricity rates, rate structures, incentives, and the availability of system financing -- drive break-even prices more than technical factors like solar resource or system orientation. In 2020 (where we assume higher electricity prices and lower PV incentives), under base-case assumptions, we estimate that about 17% of supermarkets will be in utility territories where breakeven conditions exist at a PV system price of $3/W; this increases to 79% at $1.25/W (the DOE SunShot Initiative's commercial PV price target for 2020). These percentages increase to 26% and 91%, respectively, when rate structures favorable to PV are used.« less

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel Price Computation II Appendix II to Part 504 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to...

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel Price Computation II Appendix II to Part 504 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to...

How have hospitals faced the pricing issues of the 1990's?

PubMed

Kleimenhagen, A; Naidu, G M; Pillari, G D

1994-01-01

National health care expenditures are rising rapidly, bringing on a health care financing crisis. For this reason, it is useful to see how hospitals are facing the price issues of the 1990's. This study examines the price strategies hospitals follow and analyzes their observations on price sensitivity and payer mix. The results clearly show that hospitals have not given much attention to the pricing variable. The study suggests that marketing and finance will have to work closely together in developing future pricing strategies.

E-Procurement and the U.S. Military

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-04-01

Electronic or e-catalogs are simply custom catalogs that suppliers establish on the Internet.2 An example of an electronic catalog would be a...marketplace where multiple buyers and sellers can get together and exchange goods at spot prices. Also called business-to-business ( B2B ) or...Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Raytheon established a B2B exchange called Exostar with hopes of cutting transaction expenses, aggregating buying

Coupons and advertising in markets for addictive goods: do cigarette manufacturers react to known future tax increases?

PubMed

Lillard, Dean R; Sfekas, Andrew

2005-01-01

We develop and test a pricing model for a monopolist that sells an addictive good. The model illustrates the conditions under which a monopolist lowers the price he charges youth when a future tax is imposed. Using household survey data, we investigate whether individuals use "cents-off" coupons in a way consistent with the price discrimination implied by the model. We find evidence that all smokers, not just the young, are more likely to use coupons prior to a tax increase if they are exposed to more advertising. With our data we cannot test whether cigarette manufacturers selectively offer youth price discounts in other ways.

The Database Business: Managing Today--Planning for Tomorrow. Issues and Futures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aitchison, T. M.; And Others

1988-01-01

Current issues and the future of the database business are discussed in five papers. Topics covered include aspects relating to the quality of database production; international ownership in the U.S. information marketplace; an overview of pricing strategies in the electronic information industry; and pricing issues from the viewpoints of online…

Medical students’ attitudes and perspectives regarding novel computer-based practical spot tests compared to traditional practical spot tests

PubMed Central

Wijerathne, Buddhika; Rathnayake, Geetha

2013-01-01

Background Most universities currently practice traditional practical spot tests to evaluate students. However, traditional methods have several disadvantages. Computer-based examination techniques are becoming more popular among medical educators worldwide. Therefore incorporating the computer interface in practical spot testing is a novel concept that may minimize the shortcomings of traditional methods. Assessing students’ attitudes and perspectives is vital in understanding how students perceive the novel method. Methods One hundred and sixty medical students were randomly allocated to either a computer-based spot test (n=80) or a traditional spot test (n=80). The students rated their attitudes and perspectives regarding the spot test method soon after the test. The results were described comparatively. Results Students had higher positive attitudes towards the computer-based practical spot test compared to the traditional spot test. Their recommendations to introduce the novel practical spot test method for future exams and to other universities were statistically significantly higher. Conclusions The computer-based practical spot test is viewed as more acceptable to students than the traditional spot test. PMID:26451213

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

Activities for Students: Predicting Future Gas Prices Using the Standards for Mathematical Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bismarck, Stephen F.; Zelkowski, Jeremy; Gleason, Jim

2014-01-01

Like many commodities, the price of gasoline continues to rise, and these price changes are readily observed in gas stations' signage. Moreover, algebraic methods are well suited to model price change and answer the student's question. Over the course of one ninety-minute block or two forty-five-minute classes, students build functions…

OFT, VBP: QED?

PubMed

Claxton, Karl

2007-06-01

The report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) on the UK pharmaceutical price regulation scheme (PPRS) recommends the reform of the current scheme, which is a combination of profit and price controls, to one where price is based on the health benefits offered by a pharmaceutical. On closer examination some of the more commonly expressed concerns about these proposals do not seem to be well founded. In principle, the OFT's recommendations may contribute to allocative and dynamic efficiency in the NHS. However, there are some dangers and the details of how it will be implemented are crucial. For example, value-based pricing with an inappropriate threshold for cost-effectiveness, or an inappropriate pricing structure, could lead to technologies being adopted at prices where their benefits, in terms of health outcome, do not offset the health displaced elsewhere in the NHS, a situation in which the NHS is damaged rather than improved by innovation. A failure to account for uncertainty and the value of evidence in negotiating prices and coverage could also undermine the evidence base for future NHS practice. Whatever view is taken, the OFT report will inevitably shape the scope of future policy debates about value, guidance, price and innovation.

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

2014-05-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

Predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to future price increases. Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K Michael

2011-06-01

Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers' expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys.

Predictors of What Smokers Say They Will Do in Response to Future Price Increases. Findings From the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey

PubMed Central

Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K. Michael

2011-01-01

Introduction: Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Methods: Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. Results: The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. Conclusions: The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers’ expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys. PMID:21385909

Pricing medicines: theory and practice, challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Gregson, Nigel; Sparrowhawk, Keiron; Mauskopf, Josephine; Paul, John

2005-02-01

The pricing of medicines has become one of the most hotly debated topics of recent times, with the pharmaceutical industry seemingly being attacked from all quarters. From a company perspective, determining the price for each new product is more crucial than ever, given the present dearth of new drug introductions. But how are pricing strategies developed in practice? What is value-based pricing and how are financial models of return on investment constructed? What are the challenges faced in setting the price for a particular product, and how will scientific and environmental trends provide future pricing challenges or opportunities?

Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM). Revision A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Michael Hosung

1997-01-01

In the recent couple of decades, due to international competition, the US launchers lost a considerable amount of market share in the international space launch industry'. Increased international competition has continuously affected the US dominance to eventually place great pressure on future US space launch programs. To compete for future payload and passenger delivery markets, new launch vehicles must first be capable of reliably reaching a number of desired orbital destinations with customer-desired payload capacities. However, the ultimate success of a new launch vehicle program will depend on the launch price it is capable of offering it's customers. Extremely aggressive pricing strategies will be required for a new domestic launch service to compete with low-price international launchers. Low launch prices, then, naturally require a tight budget for the launch program economy. Therefore, budget constraints established by low-pricing requirements eventually place pressure on new launch vehicles to have unprecedentedly low Life Cycle Costs (LCC's).

Changing demographics: what to watch for.

PubMed

Morrison, P A

1987-07-01

Four broad demographic transformations: 1) the population's reconfiguration into smaller household units, especially those comprised of persons living alone; 2) changing employment patterns, notably the shift of married women into paid employment and the resulting proliferation of dual-earner families; 3) transformations in the population's age composition; and 4) the geography of growth in terms of regions that will gain or lose population--can be expected to have a profound impact on opportunities and challenges facing the business sector. The number of future households is projected to increase from 88.6 million in 1986 to 101.5 million by 1996. The sharpest gains will be among households headed by persons ranging in age from the late 30s to the early 50s. The fastest growth through the year 2000 is expected to occur in the Mountain states of the US. Business economists should be alert to these demographic analyses both to spot emerging growth markets and to identify long-term strategic issues, especially as the labor market changes. It will be increasingly important to differentiate time-sensitive from price-sensitive consumers.

Carbon dioxide removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffman, D.'Maris; Lockley, Andrew

2017-01-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for later performance on a contract. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded directly between two parties. Futures and forwards are used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the potential use of futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets; concluding that they have one principal advantage (near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge caution about the prospects for market failure. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. While regulation offers increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach—finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Diatomite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crangle, R.D.

2012-01-01

The United States continues to be the world's leading producer and consumer of diatomite. Production of diatomite in the United States during 2011 was estimated to be 600 kt (661,000 st), a slight increase compared with 2010 production. The unit value of diatomite varied widely by end use in 2011. Diatomite used as a lightweight aggregate was priced at $8.82/t ($8/st), while specialty-grade diatomite, used in art supplies, cosmetics, or biomedical applications, was priced as high as $10,000/t ($9,070/st) on a spot basis. Filter-grade diatomite had an average unit value of $394/t ($357/st). Seven companies operated 10 mines an nine processing facilities in California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. U.S. diatomite exports totaled about 120 kt (132,000 st). Imports were much lower, at approximately 1 kt (1,100 st).

Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2011-01-01

Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

Myopic and Forward Looking Behavior in Branded Oral Anti-Diabetic Medication Consumption: An Example from Medicare Part D.

PubMed

Sacks, Naomi C; Burgess, James F; Cabral, Howard J; Pizer, Steven D

2017-06-01

We evaluate consumption responses to the non-linear Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit. We compare propensity-matched older patients with diabetes and Part D Standard or low-income-subsidy (LIS) coverage. We evaluate monthly adherence to branded oral anti-diabetics, with high end-of-year donut hole prices (>$200) for Standard patients and consistent, low (≤$6) prices for LIS. As an additional control, we examine adherence to generic anti-diabetics, with relatively low, consistent prices for Standard patients. If Standard patients are forward looking, they will reduce branded adherence in January, and LIS-Standard differences will be constant through the year. Contrary to this expectation, branded adherence is lower for Standard patients in January and diverges from LIS as the coverage year progresses. Standard-LIS generic adherence differences are minimal. Our findings suggest that seniors with chronic conditions respond myopically to the nonlinear Part D benefit, reducing consumption in response to high deductible, initial coverage and gap prices. Thus, when the gap is fully phased out in 2020, cost-related nonadherence will likely remain in the face of higher spot prices for more costly branded medications. These results contribute to studies of Part D plan choice and medication adherence that suggest that seniors may not make optimal healthcare decisions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006–2015 data for China’s 22 provinces

PubMed Central

Pang, Jinbo; Deng, Lingfei

2017-01-01

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a “buy” strategy and speculators adopt a “do not speculate” strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies. PMID:28241024

An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006-2015 data for China's 22 provinces.

PubMed

Pang, Jinbo; Deng, Lingfei; Wang, Gangyi

2017-01-01

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a "buy" strategy and speculators adopt a "do not speculate" strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies.

Formation of the metal and energy-carrier price clusters on the world market of nonferrous metals in the postcrisis period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2016-06-01

The laws of formation of price clusters are revealed upon statistical processing of the data on changing the quotation prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, black oil, gasoline, and natural gas in the postcrisis period from January 1, 2009 to November 1, 2013. It is found that the metal prices entering in the price cluster of nonferrous metals most strongly affect the formation of the nonferrous metal price and that the prices of precious metals and energy carriers correct the exchange price of the metal to some extent but do not determine its formation. Equations are derived to calculate the prices. The results of calculation by these equations agree well with the real nonferrous metal prices in the near future.

Revision of Metahaliotrema Yamaguti, 1953 (Monogenoidea: Dactylogyridae), with new and previously described species from the spotted scat Scatophagus argus (Linnaeus) (Perciformes: Scatophagidae) in Vietnam.

PubMed

Kritsky, Delane C; Nguyen, Ha Van; Ha, Ngo Duy; Heckmann, Richard A

2016-05-01

An emended diagnosis of Metahaliotrema Yamaguti, 1953 (Monogenoidea: Dactylogyridae) is provided based on specimens of six species collected from the spotted scat Scatophagus argus (Linnaeus) (Scatophagidae) in Vietnam: M. scatophagi Yamaguti, 1953 (type-species); M. cf. yamagutii Mizelle & Price, 1964; M. mizellei Venkatanarasaiah, 1981; M. kulkarnii Venkatanarasaiah, 1981; M. ypsilocleithrum n. sp.; and M. similis n. sp. Methaliotrema filamentosum Venkatanarasaiah, 1981 from the whipfin silver-biddy Gerres filamentosus Cuvier (Gerreidae) is included as the only other valid member of the genus. Metahaliotrema arii Yamaguti, 1953 from an ariid catfish is considered incertae sedis within the Dactylogyridae; and Metahaliotrema srivastavai Singh & Agarwal, 1994 from a bagrid catfish is transferred to Chauhanellus Bychowsky & Nagibina, 1969 as Chauhanellus srivastavai (Singh & Agarwal, 1994) n. comb. Metahaliotrema geminatohamula Pan, Ding & Zhang, 1995 from spotted scat in China is determined to be a junior subjective synonym of M. scatophagi. The two new species and M. scatophagi, M. mizellei, and M. kulkarnii are described or redescribed based on specimens from Vietnam.

Does the OVX matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from the crude oil market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Wendai

2018-02-01

In this paper, I investigate that whether the OVX and its truncated parts with a certain threshold can significantly help in forecasting the oil futures price volatility basing on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In-sample estimation results show that the OVX has a significantly positive impact on futures volatility. The impact of large OVX on future volatility has slightly powerful compared to the small ones. Moreover, the HARQ-RV model outperforms the HAR-RV in predicting the oil futures volatility. More importantly, the decomposed OVX have more powerful in forecasting the oil futures price volatility compared to the OVX itself.

Friction Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High Strength Steels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hovanski, Yuri; Grant, Glenn J.; Santella, M. L.

Friction stir spot welding techniques were developed to successfully join several advanced high strength steels. Two distinct tool materials were evaluated to determine the effect of tool materials on the process parameters and joint properties. Welds were characterized primarily via lap shear, microhardness, and optical microscopy. Friction stir spot welds were compared to the resistance spot welds in similar strength alloys by using the AWS standard for resistance spot welding high strength steels. As further comparison, a primitive cost comparison between the two joining processes was developed, which included an evaluation of the future cost prospects of friction stir spotmore » welding in advanced high strength steels.« less

76 FR 4751 - Position Limits for Derivatives

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-26

... designated contract markets (``DCM'') and physical commodity swaps that are economically equivalent to such... non-spot-month limits based on open interest levels as well as establishing Commission-determined spot...''), swaps that are economically equivalent to DCM futures and option contracts with position limits, and...

The Cost and Price Dilemma of Scholarly Journals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Donald W.; Tenopir, Carol

2000-01-01

Examines overall costs of the scientific scholarly journal system and finds that relative system costs have not increased since the late 1970s. Describes scholarly publishing costs; factors that have contributed to spiraling price increases and changes in journal subscription demand; and alternative pricing policies that might help in the future.…

A stochastic equilibrium model for the North American natural gas market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jifang

This dissertation is an endeavor in the field of energy modeling for the North American natural gas market using a mixed complementarity formulation combined with the stochastic programming. The genesis of the stochastic equilibrium model presented in this dissertation is the deterministic market equilibrium model developed in [Gabriel, Kiet and Zhuang, 2005]. Based on some improvements that we made to this model, including proving new existence and uniqueness results, we present a multistage stochastic equilibrium model with uncertain demand for the deregulated North American natural gas market using the recourse method of the stochastic programming. The market participants considered by the model are pipeline operators, producers, storage operators, peak gas operators, marketers and consumers. Pipeline operators are described with regulated tariffs but also involve "congestion pricing" as a mechanism to allocate scarce pipeline capacity. Marketers are modeled as Nash-Cournot players in sales to the residential and commercial sectors but price-takers in all other aspects. Consumers are represented by demand functions in the marketers' problem. Producers, storage operators and peak gas operators are price-takers consistent with perfect competition. Also, two types of the natural gas markets are included: the long-term and spot markets. Market participants make both high-level planning decisions (first-stage decisions) in the long-term market and daily operational decisions (recourse decisions) in the spot market subject to their engineering, resource and political constraints, resource constraints as well as market constraints on both the demand and the supply side, so as to simultaneously maximize their expected profits given others' decisions. The model is shown to be an instance of a mixed complementarity problem (MiCP) under minor conditions. The MiCP formulation is derived from applying the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions of the optimization problems faced by the market participants. Some theoretical results regarding the market prices in both markets are shown. We also illustrate the model on a representative, sample network of two production nodes, two consumption nodes with discretely distributed end-user demand and three seasons using four cases.

Decomposing intraday dependence in currency markets: evidence from the AUD/USD spot market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batten, Jonathan A.; Ellis, Craig A.; Hogan, Warren P.

2005-07-01

The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard deviation, or both of these simultaneously, values for the range, standard deviation and local Hurst exponent are recorded and analyzed separately. To illustrate this approach, a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar provides evidence of the returns distribution across the 24-hour trading ‘day’, with time-varying dependence and volatility clearly aligning with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

Economic analysis of U.S. ethanol expansion issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, Malika

The dependency of the U.S. economy on crude oil imported from politically unstable countries, escalating energy demand world wide, growing nationwide environmental consciousness, and the Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) government mandates are some of the primary factors that have provided a favorable environment for the growth and development of the U.S. ethanol industry. The first essay derives decision rules for a discrete-time dynamic hedging model in a multiple commodity framework under expected utility maximization and basis risk. It compares hedging performance of three types of hedging models, namely constant hedging, time-varying static hedging model and the new dynamic hedging rule derived in this study. Findings show that natural gas futures contracts were effective instruments for hedging ethanol spot price risk before March, 2005, when ethanol futures trading was initiated on the CBOT. However, post-March, 2005, corn and ethanol futures contracts proved to be efficient hedging instruments. Results also indicate that ethanol producers may effectively decrease variance of cumulative cash flows by hedging using ethanol, natural gas and corn futures prices using the traditional techniques. The study concludes that using the new dynamic hedge model in a three period and two commodity set up, producers can effectively reduce variance of cumulative cash flow by 13.2% as compared to the 'no hedge' scenario. In my second essay, I use choice based, conjoint analysis methods to estimate consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for alternative transportation fuels in the U.S. In this study, I consider unleaded gasoline and ethanol, which may be derived from corn or three different sources of cellulosic biomass as alternative transportation fuels. Results suggest that age and household income are some of the socioeconomic variables that significantly influence consumer's choice behavior. Results indicate considerable consumer preference heterogeneity. Welfare effects are analyzed when consumers are faced with restricted choice sets. Results suggest that possible government mandates on the consumption of E-10 and E-85 diminish welfare of individuals belonging to the segment 'Conventional Gasoline Acceptor'. Similarly, individuals belonging to 'Ethanol Acceptor' segment experience welfare losses if corn grain ethanol is not available as an alternative transportation fuel. Ethanol is increasingly being used as a gasoline oxygenate and a volume extender in the refinery and blender industry in the U.S. This paper estimates refinery and blender factor demand and evaluates price responsiveness of inputs. The study also develops and tests hypotheses regarding existence of structural change in the industry's demand for inputs. It determines whether there is a common shift point and adjustment rate for structural change in all the refinery and blender inputs by using gradual switching multivariate regression techniques and maximum likelihood methods. Results suggest a structural change in factor demand for inputs in the industry that occurs at different points and rates. Results also suggest that the demand for inputs, except for capital and unfinished oil, has become more inelastic over time.

The Potential Risks and Future Impact of a Large Leverett Glacier Crevasse along the South Pole Traverse (SPoT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

agricultural tractors used on SPoT (Case Corporation and Caterpillar). (Adapted from Lever and Thur 2014.) ................. 2 2 Map showing the 1600...traversed for the first time in 2005 as a proof-of-concept, using a combination of several commercial rubber-tracked agricultural tractors (Caterpillar...traverse route. Inset shows two rubber-tracked, agricultural tractors used on SPoT (Case Corporation and Caterpillar). (Adapted from Lever and Thur 2014

Carbon Dioxide Removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, A.; Coffman, D.

2016-12-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for performance on a contract at some later date. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded over-the-counter between two independent parties. Both futures and forward contracts are commonly used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the use of potential use of exchange-traded futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets. We conclude that they have one principal advantage (in that they give near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (in that a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge great caution in the use of this approach. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. Whilst regulation offers generally increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach - finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

Covered interest parity arbitrage and temporal long-term dependence between the US dollar and the Yen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batten, Jonathan A.; Szilagyi, Peter G.

2007-03-01

Using a daily time series from 1983 to 2005 of currency prices in spot and forward USD/Yen markets and matching equivalent maturity short-term US and Japanese interest rates, we investigate the sensitivity of the difference between actual prices in forward markets to those calculated from differentials in short-term interest rates. According to a fundamental theorem in financial economics termed covered interest parity (CIP), the actual and estimated prices should be identical once transaction and other costs are accommodated. The paper presents three important findings: first, we find evidence of considerable variation in CIP deviations from equilibrium; second, these deviations have diminished significantly and by 2000 have been almost eliminated; third, an analysis of the CIP deviations using the local Hurst exponent finds episodes of time-varying dependence over the various sample periods, which appear to be linked to episodes of dollar decline/Yen appreciation, or vice versa. The finding of temporal long-term dependence in CIP deviations is consistent with recent evidence of temporal long-term dependence in the returns of currency, stock and commodity markets.

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

Natural gas price uncertainty and the cost-effectiveness of hedging against low hydropower revenues caused by drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, Jordan D.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Foster, Benjamin T.

2015-04-01

Prolonged periods of low reservoir inflows (droughts) significantly reduce a hydropower producer's ability to generate both electricity and revenues. Given the capital intensive nature of the electric power industry, this can impact hydropower producers' ability to pay down outstanding debt, leading to credit rating downgrades, higher interests rates on new debt, and ultimately, greater infrastructure costs. One potential tool for reducing the financial exposure of hydropower producers to drought is hydrologic index insurance, in particular, contracts structured to payout when streamflows drop below a specified level. An ongoing challenge in developing this type of insurance, however, is minimizing contracts' "basis risk," that is, the degree to which contract payouts deviate in timing and/or amount from actual damages experienced by policyholders. In this paper, we show that consideration of year-to-year changes in the value of hydropower (i.e., the cost of replacing it with an alternative energy source during droughts) is critical to reducing contract basis risk. In particular, we find that volatility in the price of natural gas, a key driver of peak electricity prices, can significantly degrade the performance of index insurance unless contracts are designed to explicitly consider natural gas prices when determining payouts. Results show that a combined index whose value is derived from both seasonal streamflows and the spot price of natural gas yields contracts that exhibit both lower basis risk and greater effectiveness in terms of reducing financial exposure.

Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Mark Hanley

The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

SPOT satellite family: Past, present, and future of the operations in the mission and control center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Philippe, Pacholczyk

1993-01-01

SPOT sun-synchronous remote sensing satellites are operated by CNES since February 1986. Today, the SPOT mission and control center (CCM) operates SPOT1, SPOT2, and is ready to operate SPOT3. During these seven years, the way to operate changed and the CCM, initially designed for the control of one satellite, has been modified and upgraded to support these new operating modes. All these events have shown the performances and the limits of the system. A new generation of satellite (SPOT4) will continue the remote sensing mission during the second half of the 90's. Its design takes into account the experience of the first generation and supports several improvements. A new generation of control center (CMP) has been developed and improves the efficiency, quality, and reliability of the operations. The CMP is designed for operating two satellites at the same time during launching, in-orbit testing, and operating phases. It supports several automatic procedures and improves data retrieval and reporting.

E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future.

PubMed

Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D; Chaloupka, Frank J

2018-05-01

We estimated associations between e-cigarette prices (both disposable and refill) and e-cigarette use among middle and high-school students in the United States. We also estimated associations between cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. We used regression models to estimate the associations between e-cigarette and cigarette prices and e-cigarette use. In our regression models, we exploited changes in e-cigarette and cigarette prices across four periods of time and across 50 markets. We report the associations as price elasticities. In our primary model, we controlled for socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette prices, tobacco control policies, market fixed effects and year-quarter fixed effects. United States of America. A total of 24 370 middle- and high-school students participating in the Monitoring the Future Survey in years 2014 and 2015. Self-reported e-cigarette use over the last 30 days. Average quarterly cigarette prices, e-cigarette disposable prices and e-cigarette refill prices were constructed from Nielsen retail data (inclusive of excise taxes) for 50 US markets. In a model with market fixed effects, we estimated that a 10% increase in e-cigarette disposable prices is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping among e-cigarette users by approximately 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -17.7 to 1.8%; P = 0.02] and is associated with a reduction in the number of days vaping by the full sample by approximately 17.9% (95% CI = -31.5 to -4.2%; P = 0.01). Refill e-cigarette prices were not statistically significant predictors of vaping. Cigarette prices were not associated significantly with e-cigarette use regardless of the e-cigarette price used. However, in a model without market fixed effects, cigarette prices were a statistically significant positive predictor of total e-cigarette use. Higher e-cigarette disposable prices appear to be associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adolescents in the US. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Energy environment study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangways, R.

1981-01-01

The international demand for and supply of oil between the years 1980 and 2000 is assessed and future world oil prices and their implications for the price of jet fuel are estimated. Three critical questions are investigated: (1) how long will the world supply of oil continue to keep pace with its demand under likely trends in its use and discovery; (2) at what price will demand and supply clear the world oil market; (3) what does the analysis imply about the price of jet fuel. Projection of oil price is based upon supply and demand, which is consistent with microeconomic analysis.

75 FR 12320 - Self-Regulatory Organization; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... rule change will amend the definition of ``adjustment increment'' applicable to stock futures. II. Self...). Daily settlement prices and trade prices would continue to be expressed in pennies on a per-contract... settlement price the following day is $50.05, a mark-to-market of $50.05-$49.875 = $0.1750, or $17.50 per...

Future Pacific Rim flows and prices of softwood logs, differentiated by grade.

Treesearch

Donald F. Flora; Andrea L. Anderson; Wendy J. McGInnls

1990-01-01

By 2000, prices are expected to rise significantly for medium-grade logs and modestly for low-grade logs. World economic cycles may obscure, however, the upward price trends. Exports from the United States of medium grades are expected to remain stable, while volumes of lower grades are projected to remain level through 1995 and then decline because of competition....

Non-plasmonic nanoantennas for surface enhanced spectroscopies with ultra-low heat conversion

PubMed Central

Caldarola, Martín; Albella, Pablo; Cortés, Emiliano; Rahmani, Mohsen; Roschuk, Tyler; Grinblat, Gustavo; Oulton, Rupert F.; Bragas, Andrea V.; Maier, Stefan A.

2015-01-01

Nanoplasmonics has recently revolutionized our ability to control light on the nanoscale. Using metallic nanostructures with tailored shapes, it is possible to efficiently focus light into nanoscale field ‘hot spots'. High field enhancement factors have been achieved in such optical nanoantennas, enabling transformative science in the areas of single molecule interactions, highly enhanced nonlinearities and nanoscale waveguiding. Unfortunately, these large enhancements come at the price of high optical losses due to absorption in the metal, severely limiting real-world applications. Via the realization of a novel nanophotonic platform based on dielectric nanostructures to form efficient nanoantennas with ultra-low light-into-heat conversion, here we demonstrate an approach that overcomes these limitations. We show that dimer-like silicon-based single nanoantennas produce both high surface enhanced fluorescence and surface enhanced Raman scattering, while at the same time generating a negligible temperature increase in their hot spots and surrounding environments. PMID:26238815

Non-plasmonic nanoantennas for surface enhanced spectroscopies with ultra-low heat conversion.

PubMed

Caldarola, Martín; Albella, Pablo; Cortés, Emiliano; Rahmani, Mohsen; Roschuk, Tyler; Grinblat, Gustavo; Oulton, Rupert F; Bragas, Andrea V; Maier, Stefan A

2015-08-04

Nanoplasmonics has recently revolutionized our ability to control light on the nanoscale. Using metallic nanostructures with tailored shapes, it is possible to efficiently focus light into nanoscale field 'hot spots'. High field enhancement factors have been achieved in such optical nanoantennas, enabling transformative science in the areas of single molecule interactions, highly enhanced nonlinearities and nanoscale waveguiding. Unfortunately, these large enhancements come at the price of high optical losses due to absorption in the metal, severely limiting real-world applications. Via the realization of a novel nanophotonic platform based on dielectric nanostructures to form efficient nanoantennas with ultra-low light-into-heat conversion, here we demonstrate an approach that overcomes these limitations. We show that dimer-like silicon-based single nanoantennas produce both high surface enhanced fluorescence and surface enhanced Raman scattering, while at the same time generating a negligible temperature increase in their hot spots and surrounding environments.

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

2008-01-01

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

77 FR 77038 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Notice of Intent to Renew Collection, Futures Volume...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-31

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Agency Information Collection Activities: Notice of Intent to Renew Collection, Futures Volume, Open Interest, Price, Deliveries and Exchange of Futures for Physicals AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading...

MC-GenomeKey: a multicloud system for the detection and annotation of genomic variants.

PubMed

Elshazly, Hatem; Souilmi, Yassine; Tonellato, Peter J; Wall, Dennis P; Abouelhoda, Mohamed

2017-01-20

Next Generation Genome sequencing techniques became affordable for massive sequencing efforts devoted to clinical characterization of human diseases. However, the cost of providing cloud-based data analysis of the mounting datasets remains a concerning bottleneck for providing cost-effective clinical services. To address this computational problem, it is important to optimize the variant analysis workflow and the used analysis tools to reduce the overall computational processing time, and concomitantly reduce the processing cost. Furthermore, it is important to capitalize on the use of the recent development in the cloud computing market, which have witnessed more providers competing in terms of products and prices. In this paper, we present a new package called MC-GenomeKey (Multi-Cloud GenomeKey) that efficiently executes the variant analysis workflow for detecting and annotating mutations using cloud resources from different commercial cloud providers. Our package supports Amazon, Google, and Azure clouds, as well as, any other cloud platform based on OpenStack. Our package allows different scenarios of execution with different levels of sophistication, up to the one where a workflow can be executed using a cluster whose nodes come from different clouds. MC-GenomeKey also supports scenarios to exploit the spot instance model of Amazon in combination with the use of other cloud platforms to provide significant cost reduction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first solution that optimizes the execution of the workflow using computational resources from different cloud providers. MC-GenomeKey provides an efficient multicloud based solution to detect and annotate mutations. The package can run in different commercial cloud platforms, which enables the user to seize the best offers. The package also provides a reliable means to make use of the low-cost spot instance model of Amazon, as it provides an efficient solution to the sudden termination of spot machines as a result of a sudden price increase. The package has a web-interface and it is available for free for academic use.

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

Coupling mechanism of electric vehicle and grid under the background of smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Mingyu; Li, Dezhi; Chen, Rongjun; Shu, Han; He, Yongxiu

2018-02-01

With the development of smart distribution technology in the future, electric vehicle users can not only charge reasonably based on peak-valley price, they can also discharge electricity into the power grid to realize their economic benefit when it’s necessary and thus promote peak load shifting. According to the characteristic that future electric vehicles can discharge, this paper studies the interaction effect between electric vehicles and the grid based on TOU (time of use) Price Strategy. In this paper, four scenarios are used to compare the change of grid load after implementing TOU Price Strategy. The results show that the wide access of electric vehicles can effectively reduce peak and valley difference.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas. Improving water demand forecasts will help planners understand and optimize future investments in water supply infrastructure and related programs.

Volumetric Forest Change Detection Through Vhr Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akca, Devrim; Stylianidis, Efstratios; Smagas, Konstantinos; Hofer, Martin; Poli, Daniela; Gruen, Armin; Sanchez Martin, Victor; Altan, Orhan; Walli, Andreas; Jimeno, Elisa; Garcia, Alejandro

2016-06-01

Quick and economical ways of detecting of planimetric and volumetric changes of forest areas are in high demand. A research platform, called FORSAT (A satellite processing platform for high resolution forest assessment), was developed for the extraction of 3D geometric information from VHR (very-high resolution) imagery from satellite optical sensors and automatic change detection. This 3D forest information solution was developed during a Eurostars project. FORSAT includes two main units. The first one is dedicated to the geometric and radiometric processing of satellite optical imagery and 2D/3D information extraction. This includes: image radiometric pre-processing, image and ground point measurement, improvement of geometric sensor orientation, quasiepipolar image generation for stereo measurements, digital surface model (DSM) extraction by using a precise and robust image matching approach specially designed for VHR satellite imagery, generation of orthoimages, and 3D measurements in single images using mono-plotting and in stereo images as well as triplets. FORSAT supports most of the VHR optically imagery commonly used for civil applications: IKONOS, OrbView - 3, SPOT - 5 HRS, SPOT - 5 HRG, QuickBird, GeoEye-1, WorldView-1/2, Pléiades 1A/1B, SPOT 6/7, and sensors of similar type to be expected in the future. The second unit of FORSAT is dedicated to 3D surface comparison for change detection. It allows users to import digital elevation models (DEMs), align them using an advanced 3D surface matching approach and calculate the 3D differences and volume changes between epochs. To this end our 3D surface matching method LS3D is being used. FORSAT is a single source and flexible forest information solution with a very competitive price/quality ratio, allowing expert and non-expert remote sensing users to monitor forests in three and four dimensions from VHR optical imagery for many forest information needs. The capacity and benefits of FORSAT have been tested in six case studies located in Austria, Cyprus, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey, using optical data from different sensors and with the purpose to monitor forest with different geometric characteristics. The validation run on Cyprus dataset is reported and commented.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

17 CFR 31.6 - Registration of leverage commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... commodities. 31.6 Section 31.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION... applied to the National Futures Association for registration as a leverage transaction merchant; (2... the spot, forward, and futures markets for the generic commodity; (3) Specify a commercial or retail...

17 CFR 151.3 - Spot months for Referenced Contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 (SB) Referenced Contract; (3) At the close... delivery period in the underlying Core Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 16... Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) contract; (2) New York Mercantile Exchange New York Harbor No. 2...

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

2016-11-01

Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

North Sea Emerald crude oil assayed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rhodes, A.K.

1991-09-16

This book reports on an analysis of crude from Emerald field, 70 miles east of the Shetland Islands in the British North Sea, which shows that the crude is much heavier than typical North Sea crude. Elements of the long- delayed project appear to be in place, but production has not yet begun. Plans calls for producing the field at a rate of 30,000-40,000 b/d from a floating storage unit. Sovereign Oil and Gas plc has completed and fully tested seven production wells and four injectors in the marginal Emerald oil field. All flow lines are in place and themore » floating storage unit is ready to be installed. Production from Emerald will be sold to Neste Oy of Finland, at a minimum price of $17.90/bbl for Sullom Voe. Increases in spot prices above that level will be shared equally by the owners and purchaser.« less

Generic medicine pricing in Europe: current issues and future perspective.

PubMed

Simoens, Steven

2008-01-01

This editorial discusses a number of trends affecting the pricing of generic medicines in Europe. With respect to pricing, recent evidence has emerged that European generic medicine manufacturers face competition from Indian manufacturers; that the price level of generic medicines varies substantially between European countries; and that generic medicine manufacturers engage in competition by discount rather than price competition in France, The Netherlands and the UK. These trends suggest that there may be scope for further reducing the prices of generic medicines in several countries. In relation to reference pricing, most European countries have incorporated market incentives within reference pricing systems with a view to promoting price competition. The European experience indicates that the generic medicines industry delivers competitive prices under a reference pricing system if demand-side policies are in place that stimulate physicians, pharmacists and patients to use generic medicines. Finally, caution needs to be exercised when focusing on the drivers of generic medicine pricing as these drivers not only vary between countries, but may also vary within a country. Manufacturers of originator and generic medicines do not take a single pricing approach following patent expiry, but vary their pricing strategy from molecule to molecule.

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phil Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios ofmore » vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.« less

Analysis of surface structures of chemically peculiar stars with modern and future interferometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulyak, D.; Perraut, K.; Paladini, Claudia; Li Causi, G.; Sacuto, Stephane; Kochukhov, O.

2014-07-01

Interferometry is a very powerful observational technique known in astronomy for many decades. Its application to main-sequence stars, however, is still limited to only brightest objects. In this work we aim to explore the application of interferometry to a special class of main-sequence stars known as chemically peculiar (CP) stars. These stars demonstrate surface chemical abundance inhomogeneities (spots) that usually cover a considerable part of the stellar surface and induce a pronounced spectral and photometric variability. Interferometry thus has a potential to naturally resolve such spots in single stars, providing unique complementary information about spots sizes and contrasts. By means of numerical experiments we derive the actual interferometric requirements essential for the CP stars research that can be addressed in future instrument development. The first comparison between theoretical predictions and already available observations will also be discussed.

Strategic wholesale pricing for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart.

PubMed

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

Strategic Wholesale Pricing for an Incumbent Supplier Facing with a Competitive Counterpart

PubMed Central

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting. PMID:25614891

Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamagami, Tomoki

Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

Late-successional forests and northern spotted owls: how effective is the Northwest Forest Plan?

Treesearch

Miles Hemstrom; Martin G. Raphael

2000-01-01

This paper describes the late-successional and old-growth forest and the northern spotted owl effectiveness monitoring plans for the Northwest Forest Plan. The effectiveness monitoring plan for late-successional and old-growth forests will track changes in forest spatial distribution, and within-stand structure and composition, and it will predict future trends.

[The aspects of pricing policy in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical sector].

PubMed

Dzhalilova, K I; Alieva, K Ia

2012-01-01

The effect of macro-, middle- and microeconomic factors on price formation in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical market has been studied. Worldwide pharmaceutical leaders have the goals to become leader on the pharmaceutical market of Azerbaijan and maximize their market share. Non-leaders pharmaceutical companies use different strategies of price formation: prime cost plus markup, or price formation on the base of current prices. It was revealed that domestic pharmaceutical market has high demand elasticity. Future market development is related to stimulation of product development, and hard penetration to the market through realization of price formation strategy. Non-state pharmaceutical organizations to achieve the purpose of survive in conditions of high competition should take in to account the factor perceptions of assortment by customers.

Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer

One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.

Mechanical vs. informational components of price impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyne Farmer, J.; Zamani, N.

2007-01-01

We study the problem of what causes prices to change. It is well known that trading impacts prices — orders to buy drive the price up, and orders to sell drive it down. We introduce a means of decomposing the total impact of trading into two components, defining the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and the informational impact as the remainder of the total impact once mechanical impact is removed. This decomposition is performed using order book data from the London Stock Exchange. The average mechanical impact of a market order decays to zero as a function of time, at an asymptotic rate that is consistent with a power law with an exponent of roughly 1.7. In contrast the average informational impact builds to approach a constant value. Initially the impact is entirely mechanical, and is about half as big as the asymptotic informational impact. The size of the informational impact is positively correlated to mechanical impact. For cases where the mechanical impact is zero for all times, we find that the informational impact is negative, i.e. buy market orders that have no mechanical impact at all generate strong negative price responses.

Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents' source of cigarette access?

PubMed

Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

2017-06-01

We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents' cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7-12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07-1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source.

An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Cole, Wesley; Lantz, Eric

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gasmore » prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.« less

Using an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model to Develop Minimum Cost Water Supply Portfolios and Manage Supply Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Ramsey, J.

2004-12-01

Water scarcity has become a reality in many areas as a result of population growth, fewer available sources, and reduced tolerance for the environmental impacts of developing the new supplies that do exist. As a result, successfully managing future water supply risk will become more dependent on coordinating the use of existing resources. Toward that end, flexible supply strategies that can rapidly respond to hydrologic variability will provide communities with increasing economic advantages, particularly if the frequency of more extreme events (e.g., drought) increases due to global climate change. Markets for established commodities (e.g., oil, gas) often provide a framework for efficiently responding to changes in supply and demand. Water markets, however, have remained relatively crude, with most transactions involving permanent transfers and long regulatory processes. Recently, interest in the use of flexible short-term transfers (e.g., leases, options) has begun to motivate consideration of more sophisticated strategies for managing supply risk, strategies similar to those used in more mature markets. In this case, communities can benefit from some of the advantages that water enjoys over other commodities, in particular, the ability to accurately characterize the stochastic nature of supply and demand through hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic-economic models are developed for two different water scarce regions supporting active water markets: Edward Aquifer and Lower Rio Grande Valley. These models are used to construct portfolios of water supply transfers (e.g., permanent transfers, options, and spot leases) that minimize the cost of meeting a probabilistic reliability constraint. Real and simulated spot price distributions allow each type of transfer to be priced in a manner consistent with financial theory (e.g., Black-Scholes). Market simulations are integrated with hydrologic models such that variability in supply and demand are linked with price behavior. Decisions on when and how much water to lease (or exercise, in the case of options) are made on the basis of anticipatory rules based on the ratio of expected supply to expected demand, and are used to evaluate the economic consequences of a utilityAƒAøAøâ_sA¬Aøâ_zAøs attitude toward risk. The marginal cost of supply reliability is also explored by varying the water supply reliability constraint, an important consideration as the rising expense of new source development may encourage some communities to accept a nominal number of supply shortfalls. Results demonstrate how changes in the distribution of various transfer types within a portfolio can affect its cost and reliability. Results also suggest that substantial savings can be obtained through the use of market-based risk management strategies, with optimal portfolio costs averaging as much as 35 percent less than the costs of meeting reliability targets through the maintenance of firm capacity. Both the conceptual and modeling approach described in this work are likely to have increasing application as water scarcity continues to drive the search for more efficient approaches to water resource management.

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

PubMed

Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

2009-03-01

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Statistical regularities of Carbon emission trading market: Evidence from European Union allowances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zeyu; Xiao, Rui; Shi, Haibo; Li, Guihong; Zhou, Xiaofeng

2015-05-01

As an emerging financial market, the trading value of carbon emission trading market has definitely increased. In recent years, the carbon emission allowances have already become a way of investment. They are bought and sold not only by carbon emitters but also by investors. In this paper, we analyzed the price fluctuations of the European Union allowances (EUA) futures in European Climate Exchange (ECX) market from 2007 to 2011. The symmetric and power-law probability density function of return time series was displayed. We found that there are only short-range correlations in price changes (return), while long-range correlations in the absolute of price changes (volatility). Further, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) approach was applied with focus on long-range autocorrelations and Hurst exponent. We observed long-range power-law autocorrelations in the volatility that quantify risk, and found that they decay much more slowly than the autocorrelation of return time series. Our analysis also showed that the significant cross correlations exist between return time series of EUA and many other returns. These cross correlations exist in a wide range of fields, including stock markets, energy concerned commodities futures, and financial futures. The significant cross-correlations between energy concerned futures and EUA indicate the physical relationship between carbon emission and energy production process. Additionally, the cross-correlations between financial futures and EUA indicate that the speculation behavior may become an important factor that can affect the price of EUA. Finally we modeled the long-range volatility time series of EUA with a particular version of the GARCH process, and the result also suggests long-range volatility autocorrelations.

Hot Spot and Whole-Tumor Enumeration of CD8+ Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes Utilizing Digital Image Analysis Is Prognostic in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

PubMed

McIntire, Patrick J; Irshaid, Lina; Liu, Yifang; Chen, Zhengming; Menken, Faith; Nowak, Eugene; Shin, Sandra J; Ginter, Paula S

2018-05-07

CD8 + tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) have emerged as a prognostic indicator in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). There is debate surrounding the prognostic value of hot spots for CD8 + TIL enumeration. We compared hot spot versus whole-tumor CD8 + TIL enumeration in prognosticating TNBC using immunohistochemistry on whole tissue sections and quantification by digital image analysis (Halo imaging analysis software; Indica Labs, Corrales, NM). A wide range of clinically relevant hot spot sizes was evaluated. CD8 + TIL enumeration was independently statistically significant for all hot spot sizes and whole-tumor annotations for disease-free survival by multivariate analysis. A 10× objective (2.2 mm diameter) hot spot was found to correlate significantly with overall survival (P = .04), while the remaining hot spots and whole-tumor CD8 + TIL enumeration did not (P > .05). Statistical significance was not demonstrated when comparing between hot spots and whole-tumor annotations, as the groups had overlapping confidence intervals. CD8 + TIL hot spot enumeration is equivalent to whole-tumor enumeration for prognostication in TNBC and may serve as a good alternative methodology in future studies and clinical practice. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The 1986 world oil puzzle: Confusion and anxiety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, S.

1986-01-01

The turbulent international political and economic events of the 1970s and 1980s reinforce the instinctive feeling that the future is inherently unpredictable. Yet we continue to strive for a perception of the future because it is a necessary component of a rational framework for intelligent decision making. In this paper, the chronological evolution of oil pricing is presented to provide an historical perspective to view current events. The outlook for the main determinants of oil price is then examined.

On-the-Spot Problem Solving of Airline Professionals: A Case Study of Sky Business School Personnel Training Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nara, Jun

2010-01-01

This research explores how chief cabin crew members of major airlines made their decisions on-the-spot when they had unexpected problems. This research also presents some insights that may improve personnel training programs for future stewardesses and stewards based on the investigation of their decision-making styles. The theoretical framework…

17 CFR 15.00 - Definitions of terms used in parts 15 to 21 of this chapter.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... chapter. As used in parts 15 to 21 of this chapter: (a) Cash or Spot, when used in connection with any..., commodity pool or partnership account. (g) Discretionary account means a commodity futures or commodity... spot, single or in all-months fixed in § 150.2 of this chapter for the particular commodity and...

Does asymmetric correlation affect portfolio optimization?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryd, Lukas

2017-07-01

The classical portfolio optimization problem does not assume asymmetric behavior of relationship among asset returns. The existence of asymmetric response in correlation on the bad news could be important information in portfolio optimization. The paper applies Dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) and his asymmetric version (ADCC) to propose asymmetric behavior of conditional correlation. We analyse asymmetric correlation among S&P index, bonds index and spot gold price before mortgage crisis in 2008. We evaluate forecast ability of the models during and after mortgage crisis and demonstrate the impact of asymmetric correlation on the reduction of portfolio variance.

78 FR 42113 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-15

... Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission'') has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget... settlement price for each cash-settled security futures product fairly reflect the opening price of the... Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and...

Scattering linear polarization of late-type active stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakobchuk, T. M.; Berdyugina, S. V.

2018-05-01

Context. Many active stars are covered in spots, much more so than the Sun, as indicated by spectroscopic and photometric observations. It has been predicted that star spots induce non-zero intrinsic linear polarization by breaking the visible stellar disk symmetry. Although small, this effect might be useful for star spot studies, and it is particularly significant for a future polarimetric atmosphere characterization of exoplanets orbiting active host stars. Aims: Using models for a center-to-limb variation of the intensity and polarization in presence of continuum scattering and adopting a simplified two-temperature photosphere model, we aim to estimate the intrinsic linear polarization for late-type stars of different gravity, effective temperature, and spottedness. Methods: We developed a code that simulates various spot configurations or uses arbitrary surface maps, performs numerical disk integration, and builds Stokes parameter phase curves for a star over a rotation period for a selected wavelength. It allows estimating minimum and maximum polarization values for a given set of stellar parameters and spot coverages. Results: Based on assumptions about photosphere-to-spot temperature contrasts and spot size distributions, we calculate the linear polarization for late-type stars with Teff = 3500 K-6000 K, log g = 1.0-5.0, using the plane-parallel and spherical atmosphere models. Employing random spot surface distribution, we analyze the relation between spot coverage and polarization and determine the influence of different input parameters on results. Furthermore, we consider spot configurations with polar spots and active latitudes and longitudes.

The Role of the National Training Center during Full Mobilization

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-07

resources are proposed by this study. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 217 National Training Center (NTC); Training; Mobilization; Combat 16. PRICE ... Price Code, Enter appropriate price Block 8. Performina Oraanization Report code (NTIS only). Number, Enter the unique alphanumeric report number(s...Regular Army and a transfer of their roles to the Reserve Component. The end of the Cold War makes future mobilization needs less likely and argues for

Tax, price and cigarette smoking: evidence from the tobacco documents and implications for tobacco company marketing strategies

PubMed Central

Chaloupka, F; Cummings, K; Morley, C.; Horan, J.

2002-01-01

Methods: Data for this study come from tobacco industry documents contained in the Youth and Marketing database created by the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and available through http:// roswell.tobaccodocuments.org, supplemented with documents obtained from http://www.tobaccodocuments.org. Results: Tobacco company documents provide clear evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette smoking, describing how tax related and other price increases lead to significant reductions in smoking, particularly among young persons. This information was very important in developing the industry's pricing strategies, including the development of lower price branded generics and the pass through of cigarette excise tax increases, and in developing a variety of price related marketing efforts, including multi-pack discounts, couponing, and others. Conclusions: Pricing and price related promotions are among the most important marketing tools employed by tobacco companies. Future tobacco control efforts that aim to raise prices and limit price related marketing efforts are likely to be important in achieving reductions in tobacco use and the public health toll caused by tobacco. PMID:11893816

Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

2017-07-01

Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Wan, Jieqiu

2011-10-01

In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547-1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243-250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or 'NEMS' model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or “NEMS” model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. Lastly, we explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE PAGES

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances; ...

2017-11-01

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or 'NEMS' model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations

DOE PAGES

Mignone, Bryan K.; Showalter, Sharon; Wood, Frances; ...

2017-09-07

One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or “NEMS” model), we findmore » that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. Lastly, we explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy.« less

Understanding Financial Innovation: An Introduction to Derivative Financial Products.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, J. N.

1992-01-01

Explains the use of forwards, futures, swaps, and options in international currency trading. Argues that pricing options are based on the same basic principles as pricing other financial instruments. Concludes that, although financial markets have developed several new products, hedging and speculation involve similar processes. (CFR)

75 FR 55370 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-10

... Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission'') has submitted to the Office of Management and Budget a... Affairs, Office of Management and Budget, Room 10102, New Executive Office Building, Washington, DC 20503... settlement price for each cash-settled security futures product fairly reflect the opening price of the...

17 CFR 151.3 - Spot months for Referenced Contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 (SB) Referenced Contract; (3) At the close of business on... in the underlying Core Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 16 (SF... Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) contract; (2) New York Mercantile Exchange New York Harbor No. 2...

17 CFR 151.3 - Spot months for Referenced Contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 (SB) Referenced Contract; (3) At the close of business on... in the underlying Core Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 16 (SF... Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) contract; (2) New York Mercantile Exchange New York Harbor No. 2...

Increased Topical Generic Prices by Manufacturers: An Isolated Trend or Worrisome Future?

PubMed

Bhatt, Mehul D; Bhatt, Birju D; Dorrian, James T; McLellan, Beth N

2018-03-12

There is limited data regarding generic medication prices. Recent studies have shown price changes at the retail level, but much is not known about the pharmaceutical supply chain or price changes at the manufacturer level. We sought to examine the extent of price changes for topical generic medications. A comprehensive review of average wholesale prices (AWP) and manufacturers of topical generics and available corresponding branded medications was conducted for 2005 and 2016. A total of 51 topical chemical entities were examined. Between 2005 and 2016, the AWP of topical generics increased by 273% and the AWP of topical branded increased by 379%. The topical generic with the most price change increased by 2529%. Eight of the top twenty topical generics with the highest increase in AWP also had an increase in the number of manufacturers. These findings are not generalizable to medications used in other areas of medicine CONCLUSIONS: Topical generic prices are rapidly increasing at the manufacturer level. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Exposed Ice in the Northern Mid-Latitudes of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Carlton C.

2007-01-01

Ice-Rich Layer: Polygonal features with dimensions of approximately 100 meters, bounded by cracks, are commonly observed on the martian northern plains. These features are generally attributed to thermal cracking of ice-rich sediments, in direct analogy to polygons in terrestrial polar regions. We mapped polygons in the northern mid-latitudes (30 to 65 N) using MOC and HiRISE images. Polygons are scattered across the northern plains, with a particular concentration in western Utopia Planitia. This region largely overlaps the Late Amazonian Astapus Colles unit, characterized by polygonal terrain and nested pits consistent with periglacial and thermokarst origins. Bright and Dark Polygonal Cracks: An examination of all MOC images (1997 through 2003) covering the study area demonstrated that, at latitudes of 55 to 65 N, most of the imaged polygons show bright bounding cracks. We interpret these bright cracks as exposed ice. Between 40 and 55 N, most of the imaged polygons show dark bounding cracks. These are interpreted as polygons from which the exposed ice has been removed by sublimation. The long-term stability limit for exposed ice, even in deep cracks, apparently lies near 55 N. Bright and Dark Spots: Many HiRISE and MOC frames showing polygons in the northern plains also show small numbers of bright and dark spots, particularly in western Utopia Planitia. Many of the spots are closely associated with collapse features suggestive of thermokarst. The spots range from tens to approximately 100 meters in diameter. The bright spots are interpreted as exposed ice, due to their prevalence on terrain mapped as ice rich. The dark spots are interpreted as former bright spots, which have darkened as the exposed ice is lost by sublimation. The bright spots may be the martian equivalents of pingos, ice-cored mounds found in periglacial regions on Earth. Terrestrial pingos from which the ice core has melted often collapse to form depressions similar to the martian dark spots. Future Observations: The SHARAD radar should be able to confirm the presence and measure the depth of the interpreted ice-rich layer that forms the Astapus Colles unit. If this layer is confirmed it will strengthen the interpretation of bright polygon cracks and bright spots as exposed ice. HiRISE images of the northern plains are showing unprecedented details of the polygonal cracks. Future HiRISE images that include bright spots, compared to MOC images taken years earlier, will illustrate the temporal stability of the spots. The CRISM spectrometer, with multiple spectral bands and a spatial resolution around 20 meters, should allow mineralogical identification of the material exposed in the polygonal bounding cracks and in the bright spots.

Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents’ source of cigarette access?

PubMed Central

Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

2017-01-01

Abstract We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents’ cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7–12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07–1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source. PMID:28658140

Phosphate rock costs, prices and resources interaction.

PubMed

Mew, M C

2016-01-15

This article gives the author's views and opinions as someone who has spent his working life analyzing the international phosphate sector as an independent consultant. His career spanned two price hike events in the mid-1970's and in 2008, both of which sparked considerable popular and academic interest concerning adequacy of phosphate rock resources, the impact of rising mining costs and the ability of mankind to feed future populations. An analysis of phosphate rock production costs derived from two major industry studies performed in 1983 and 2013 shows that in nominal terms, global average cash production costs increased by 27% to $38 per tonne fob mine in the 30 year period. In real terms, the global average cost of production has fallen. Despite the lack of upward pressure from increasing costs, phosphate rock market prices have shown two major spikes in the 30 years to 2013, with periods of less volatility in between. These price spike events can be seen to be related to the escalating investment cost required by new mine capacity, and as such can be expected to be repeated in future. As such, phosphate rock price volatility is likely to have more impact on food prices than rising phosphate rock production costs. However, as mining costs rise, recycling of P will also become increasingly driven by economics rather than legislation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingshu; Everson, Mark P; Wallington, Timothy J; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E

2016-07-19

Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as "critical materials". Studies of future PGM flows have focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators. We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately 45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles. The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately, automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals. As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some of this growing demand.

Effects of the relative fee structure on the use of surgical operations.

PubMed

Escarce, J J

1993-10-01

The goal is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework for investigating how the demand for an operation may be affected by the fee for the operation (the own-price) and by fees for other services provided by surgeons in the same specialty (the cross-price). The theory suggests an empirical test of whether surgeons create demand for surgery. The study examines the use of 11 frequently performed surgical operations by elderly Medicare enrollees in a cross-section of 316 U.S. metropolitan areas. Medicare physician claims and enrollment files for 1986 are the principal sources of data. Using econometric methods, a structural demand equation modified to include the own-price and the cross-price is estimated for each study operation. The theory suggests that the utilization response to changes in fees may differ among operations depending on whether demand creation occurs and on the interplay of distinct own-price and cross-price effects. However, the results of the empirical analyses are inconclusive regarding the most appropriate economic model of surgical utilization. Both neoclassical behavior and demand creation are observed, but technical limitations of the analyses, including the cross-sectional design of the study, preclude definitive inferences. Despite the lack of definitive empirical results, the study has several implications for future research regarding the effect of changes in fees on surgical utilization. In particular, future studies should consider the roles of distinct own-price and cross-price effects, examine the importance of the supply-demand balance in physician services markets, and assess whether typologies of operations that are based on the strictness of their clinical indications predict the appropriate economic model of utilization.

Effects of the relative fee structure on the use of surgical operations.

PubMed Central

Escarce, J J

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE. The goal is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework for investigating how the demand for an operation may be affected by the fee for the operation (the own-price) and by fees for other services provided by surgeons in the same specialty (the cross-price). The theory suggests an empirical test of whether surgeons create demand for surgery. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING. The study examines the use of 11 frequently performed surgical operations by elderly Medicare enrollees in a cross-section of 316 U.S. metropolitan areas. Medicare physician claims and enrollment files for 1986 are the principal sources of data. STUDY DESIGN. Using econometric methods, a structural demand equation modified to include the own-price and the cross-price is estimated for each study operation. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The theory suggests that the utilization response to changes in fees may differ among operations depending on whether demand creation occurs and on the interplay of distinct own-price and cross-price effects. However, the results of the empirical analyses are inconclusive regarding the most appropriate economic model of surgical utilization. Both neoclassical behavior and demand creation are observed, but technical limitations of the analyses, including the cross-sectional design of the study, preclude definitive inferences. CONCLUSIONS. Despite the lack of definitive empirical results, the study has several implications for future research regarding the effect of changes in fees on surgical utilization. In particular, future studies should consider the roles of distinct own-price and cross-price effects, examine the importance of the supply-demand balance in physician services markets, and assess whether typologies of operations that are based on the strictness of their clinical indications predict the appropriate economic model of utilization. PMID:8407339

17 CFR 37.403 - Additional requirements for cash-settled swaps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... requirements for cash-settled swaps. (a) For cash-settled swaps, the swap execution facility shall demonstrate that it monitors the pricing of the reference price used to determine cash flows or settlement; (b) For... cash-settled swaps. 37.403 Section 37.403 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING...

Can and should value-based pricing be applied to molecular diagnostics?

PubMed

Garau, Martina; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis; Housman, Laura; Ossa, Diego

2013-01-01

Current pricing and reimbursement systems for diagnostics are not efficient. Prices for diagnostics are often driven by administrative practices and expected production cost. The purpose of the paper is to discuss how a value-based pricing framework being used to ensure efficient use and price of medicines could also be applied to diagnostics. Diagnostics not only facilitates health gain and cost savings, but also information to guide patients' decisions on interventions and their future 'behaviors'. For value assessment processes we recommend a two-part approach. Companion diagnostics introduced at the launch of the drug should be assessed through new drug assessment processes considering a broad range of value elements and a balanced analysis of diagnostic impacts. A separate diagnostic-dedicated committee using value-based pricing principles should review other diagnostics lying outside the companion diagnostics-and-drug 'at-launch' situation.

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are developed from a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for a large dataset. Unconditional and conditional forecasts are compared for U.S. industrial production, real personal income, and estimated factors. Results suggest that economic growth will be slower under the Clean Power Plan than it would otherwise; however, CO2 emissions reductions and economic growth can be achieved simultaneously.

Oil shortages, climate change and collective action.

PubMed

Newbery, David

2011-05-13

Concerns over future oil scarcity might not be so worrying but for the high carbon content of substitutes, and the limited capacity of the atmosphere to absorb additional CO(2) from burning fuel. The paper argues that the tools of economics are helpful in understanding some of the key issues in pricing fossil fuels, the extent to which pricing can be left to markets, the need for, and design of, international agreements on corrective carbon pricing, and the potential Prisoners' Dilemma in reaching such agreements, partly mitigated in the case of oil by current taxes and the probable incidence of carbon taxes on the oil price. The 'Green Paradox', in which carbon pricing exacerbates climate change, is theoretically possible, but empirically unlikely. © 2011 Royal Society

Multifractal detrended cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets based on DCCA and DMCA methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Chen, Yuemeng; Yang, Chunxia

2014-05-01

Based on the daily price data of Shanghai and London gold spot markets, we applied detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and detrended moving average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) methods to quantify power-law cross-correlation between domestic and international gold markets. Results show that the cross-correlations between the Chinese domestic and international gold spot markets are multifractal. Furthermore, forward DMCA and backward DMCA seems to outperform DCCA and centered DMCA for short-range gold series, which confirms the comparison results of short-range artificial data in L. Y. He and S. P. Chen [Physica A 390 (2011) 3806-3814]. Finally, we analyzed the local multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between Chinese domestic and international gold markets. We show that multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets are time-varying and that multifractal characteristics were strengthened by the financial crisis in 2007-2008.

Illicit Drug Users in the Tanzanian Hinterland: Population Size Estimation Through Key Informant-Driven Hot Spot Mapping.

PubMed

Ndayongeje, Joel; Msami, Amani; Laurent, Yovin Ivo; Mwankemwa, Syangu; Makumbuli, Moza; Ngonyani, Alois M; Tiberio, Jenny; Welty, Susie; Said, Christen; Morris, Meghan D; McFarland, Willi

2018-02-12

We mapped hot spots and estimated the numbers of people who use drugs (PWUD) and who inject drugs (PWID) in 12 regions of Tanzania. Primary (ie, current and past PWUD) and secondary (eg, police, service providers) key informants identified potential hot spots, which we visited to verify and count the number of PWUD and PWID present. Adjustments to counts and extrapolation to regional estimates were done by local experts through iterative rounds of discussion. Drug use, specifically cocaine and heroin, occurred in all regions. Tanga had the largest numbers of PWUD and PWID (5190 and 540, respectively), followed by Mwanza (3300 and 300, respectively). Findings highlight the need to strengthen awareness of drug use and develop prevention and harm reduction programs with broader reach in Tanzania. This exercise provides a foundation for understanding the extent and locations of drug use, a baseline for future size estimations, and a sampling frame for future research.

Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

2017-06-01

This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

A copula-multifractal volatility hedging model for CSI 300 index futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yu; Wang, Yudong; Huang, Dengshi

2011-11-01

In this paper, we propose a new hedging model combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the dynamic copula functions. Using high-frequency intraday quotes of the spot Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC), spot China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), and CSI 300 index futures, we compare the direct and cross hedging effectiveness of the copula-MFV model with several popular copula-GARCH models. The main empirical results show that the proposed copula-MFV model obtains better hedging effectiveness than the copula-GARCH-type models in general. Furthermore, the hedge operating strategy based MFV hedging model involves fewer transaction costs than those based on the GARCH-type models. The finding of this paper indicates that multifractal analysis may offer a new way of quantitative hedging model design using financial futures.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drury, E.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.

2013-01-01

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.

Is parallel trade in medicines compatible with the single European market?

PubMed

Senior, I

1992-01-01

For many years the varying methods of price control of medicines by national governments in the European Community (and elsewhere) have resulted in wide variations in prices. Parallel traders buy products in low pricing Community countries and sell them, generally relabelled or repackaged, in high pricing Community countries. This practice diverts sales revenue and profits from the manufacturers to the traders, distributors, pharmacists and, in some measure, to the sickness funds and to some patients. While parallel trade appeals to those who gain financially, its basis is a market distortion that poses a significant threat to the future of the research-based pharmaceutical industry.

The strategic use of forward contracts: Applications in power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, Jeffrey Scott

This dissertation develops three theoretical models that analyze forward trading by firms with market power. The models are discussed in the context of recently restructured power markets, but the results can be applied more generally. The first model considers the profitability of large firms in markets with limited economies of scale and free entry. When large firms apply their market power, small firms benefit from the high prices without incurring the costs of restricted output. When entry is considered, and profit opportunity is determined by the cost of entry, this asymmetry creates the "curse of market power;" the long-run profits of large firms are reduced because of their market power. I suggest ways that large power producers can cope with the curse of market power, including the sale of long-term forward contracts. Past research has shown that forward contracts can demonstrate commitment to aggressive behavior to a competing duopolist. I add explicitly modeled entry to this literature, and make the potential entrants the audience of the forward sale. The existence of a forward market decreases equilibrium entry, increases the profits of large firms, and enhances economic efficiency. In the second model, a consumer representative, such as a state government or regulated distribution utility, bargains in the forward market on behalf of end-consumers who cannot organize together in the spot market. The ability to organize in forward markets allows consumers to encourage economic efficiency. When multiple producers are considered, I find that the ability to offer contracts also increases consumer surplus by decreasing the producers' profits. In some specifications of the model, consumers are able to capture the full gains from trade. The third model of this dissertation considers the ability of a large producer to take advantage of anonymity by randomly alternating between forward sales and forward purchases. The large producer uses its market power to always obtain favorable settlement on its forward transactions. Since other participants in the market cannot anticipate the large producer's eventual spot market behavior they cannot effectively arbitrage between markets. I find that forward transaction anonymity leads to spot price destabilization and cost inefficiency.

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production.

PubMed

Yao, Guolin; Staples, Mark D; Malina, Robert; Tyner, Wallace E

2017-01-01

Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm. The stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions. Technical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... such security future is a stock, the product of the daily settlement price of such security future as shown by any regularly published reporting or quotation service, and the applicable number of shares per... regulations applicable to financial relations between a security futures intermediary and a customer with...

SU-E-T-510: Interplay Between Spots Sizes, Spot / Line Spacing and Motion in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, TK

Purpose In proton beam configuration for spot scanning proton therapy (SSPT), one can define the spacing between spots and lines of scanning as a ratio of given spot size. If the spacing increases, the number of spots decreases which can potentially decrease scan time, and so can whole treatment time, and vice versa. However, if the spacing is too large, the uniformity of scanned field decreases. Also, the field uniformity can be affected by motion during SSPT beam delivery. In the present study, the interplay between spot/ line spacing and motion is investigated. Methods We used four Gaussian-shape spot sizesmore » with 0.5cm, 1.0cm, 1.5cm, and 2.0cm FWHM, three spot/line spacing that creates uniform field profile which are 1/3*FWHM, σ/3*FWHM and 2/3*FWHM, and three random motion amplitudes within, +/−0.3mm, +/−0.5mm, and +/−1.0mm. We planned with 2Gy uniform single layer of 10×10cm2 and 20×20cm2 fields. Then, mean dose within 80% area of given field size, contrubuting MU per each spot assuming 1cGy/MU calibration for all spot sizes, number of spots and uniformity were calculated. Results The plans with spot/line spacing equal to or smaller than 2/3*FWHM without motion create ∼100% uniformity. However, it was found that the uniformity decreases with increased spacing, and it is more pronounced with smaller spot sizes, but is not affected by scanned field sizes. Conclusion It was found that the motion during proton beam delivery can alter the dose uniformity and the amount of alteration changes with spot size which changes with energy and spot/line spacing. Currently, robust evaluation in TPS (e.g. Eclipse system) performs range uncertainty evaluation using isocenter shift and CT calibration error. Based on presented study, it is recommended to add interplay effect evaluation to robust evaluation process. For future study, the additional interplay between the energy layers and motion is expected to present volumetric effect.« less

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal Acquisition... a representation as to the accuracy of the contractor's judgment on the estimate f future costs or... current data, the contractor's responsibility is not limited by any lack of personal knowledge of the...

48 CFR 15.406-2 - Certificate of current cost or pricing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal Acquisition... a representation as to the accuracy of the contractor's judgment on the estimate f future costs or... current data, the contractor's responsibility is not limited by any lack of personal knowledge of the...

75 FR 41914 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-19

... consolidated last sale price by the same specified percentage. The numerical percentage proposed to be used in the Trading Collar price calculations will be equal to the appropriate ``numerical guideline... Collars will automatically be adjusted to match any future changes in the numerical guidelines in NYSE...

College Costs: Recent Trends, Likely Future. Policy Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Cathy

Recent trends in college costs and reasons why college costs have been increasing are considered. Comparative data are presented on recent rates of growth among average college charges, faculty salaries, the Higher Education Price Index (HEPI), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is shown that from 1977 through 1982, average total tuition,…

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 36 - Guidance on, and Acceptable Practices in, Compliance With Core Principles

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... have clear procedures and guidelines for decision-making regarding emergency intervention in the market... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION EXEMPT MARKETS Pt. 36, App. B Appendix B to Part 36—Guidance on, and... trading in significant price discovery contracts to prevent market manipulation, price distortion, and...

2050: A Pricing Odyssey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faruqui, Ahmad

2006-10-15

The author uses the Rip Van Winkle approach favored by marketers to gaze, clear-eyed, into the future - say, the year 2050 - to visualize alternative demand-response possibilities. Dare we go California Dreamin' of a distant utopia - or is it inevitable that pricing myopia will keep us from attaining the fulfillment of many of our career goals? (author)

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DOE may increase the rate of purchases if prices fall below recent price trends or futures markets... accordance with the FAR and the DEAR. (b) Acquisition strategy. (1) DOE solicitations: (i) May be either... availability of ships, pipelines and terminals to move and receive the oil. (3) Based on the market analysis...

Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

Sociological Factors Affecting Agricultural Price Risk Management in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John

2009-01-01

The highly volatile auction system in Australia accounts for 85 percent of ex-farm wool sales, with the remainder sold by forward contract, futures, and other hedging methods. In this article, against the background of an extensive literature on price risk strategies, we investigate the behavioral factors associated with producers' adoption of…

75 FR 8189 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

... before March 25, 2010 to be assured of consideration. Domestic Finance International Portfolio Investment... information on foreign exchange contracts purchased and sold; foreign exchange futures purchased and sold... timely information on foreign exchange spot, forward and futures purchased and sold; net options position...

What's in and what's out in branding? A novel articulation effect for brand names.

PubMed

Topolinski, Sascha; Zürn, Michael; Schneider, Iris K

2015-01-01

The present approach exploits the biomechanical connection between articulation and ingestion-related mouth movements to introduce a novel psychological principle of brand name design. We constructed brand names for diverse products with consonantal stricture spots either from the front to the rear of the mouth, thus inwards (e.g., BODIKA), or from the rear to the front, thus outwards (e.g., KODIBA). These muscle dynamics resemble the oral kinematics during either ingestion (inwards), which feels positive, or expectoration (outwards), which feels negative. In 7 experiments (total N = 1261), participants liked products with inward names more than products with outward names (Experiment 1), reported higher purchase intentions (Experiment 2), and higher willingness-to-pay (Experiments 3a-3c, 4, 5), with the price gain amounting to 4-13% of the average estimated product value. These effects occurred across English and German language, under silent reading, for both edible and non-edible products, and even in the presence of a much stronger price determinant, namely fair-trade production (Experiment 5).

Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

2017-04-01

Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.

Behavior analysis in consumer affairs: Retail and consumer response to publicizing food price information

PubMed Central

Greene, Brandon F.; Rouse, Mark; Green, Richard B.; Clay, Connie

1984-01-01

A popular program among consumer action groups involves publicizing comparative food price information (CFPI) gathered from retail stores. Its significance is based on the assumption that publishing CFPI maximizes retail competition (i.e., moderates price levels or price increases) and occasions more frugal store selections among consumers. We tested these assumptions during a 2-year analysis. Specifically, we monitored the prices of two distinct market baskets in the supermarkets of two midwestern cities (target and contrast cities). Following a lengthy baseline, we published the prices of only one of the market baskets at stores in the target city in the local newspaper on five different occasions. The results suggested that reductions in price inflation occurred for both market baskets at the independently operated target stores. The corporate chain stores were not similarly affected. In addition, surveys indicated that many consumers used the CFPI as a basis for store selection. Finally, the analysis included a discussion of the politics, economics, and future of CFPI programs. PMID:16795672

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

PubMed Central

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-01-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior. PMID:24671011

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-03-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior.

MTBE still in poor health, despite the Clean Air Act

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, A.

1994-05-25

After the second winter oxygenated fuels program of the 1990 Clean Air Act, producers of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) are still feeling the chill of poor profitability. Despite the strong demand growth for MTBE to meet oxygen requirements in reformulated gasoline (RFG), oversupply still dogs the market. That, combined with a run-up in feedstock prices, has seen margins for MTBE markers all but evaporate. And it seems matters are likely to get worse before they get better. This week, Belvieu Environmental Fuels (BEF; Houston) expects to startup its 15,000-bbl/day MTBE plant at Mont Belvieu, TX. In late July, Texaco willmore » start up its 15,000-bbl/day MTBE/propylene oxide (PO) plant at Port Neches, TX. In addition, a rash of refinery-based MTBE and tert-amyl methyl ether projects are nearing completion. {open_quotes}Profitability in MTBE has been extremely poor,{close_quotes} says Marvin O. Schlanger, president of Arco Chemical Americas, the largest MTBE producer. There has, however, been some recent recovery on the spot market, with MTBE moving from less than 60 cts/gal to near cash-cost levels of 70 cts/gal. But contract prices remain depressed, and strength in butane and methanol pricing have all buy wiped out any gains in MTBE.« less

Quantum-like Viewpoint on the Complexity and Randomness of the Financial Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

In economics and financial theory, analysts use random walk and more general martingale techniques to model behavior of asset prices, in particular share prices on stock markets, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. This practice has its basis in the presumption that investors act rationally and without bias, and that at any moment they estimate the value of an asset based on future expectations. Under these conditions, all existing information affects the price, which changes only when new information comes out. By definition, new information appears randomly and influences the asset price randomly. Corresponding continuous time models are based on stochastic processes (this approach was initiated in the thesis of [4]), see, e.g., the books of [33] and [37] for historical and mathematical details.

Becker's rational addiction theory: An empirical test with price elasticities for distilled spirits in Denmark 1911-31.

PubMed

Skog, Ole-Jørgen; Melberg, Hans Olav

2006-10-01

To test an implication of Becker's rational addiction theory, namely that price changes will lead both to simultaneous consumption changes as well as lagged changes (and potentially also immediate changes if future changes in prices are anticipated). Time-series analysis, first of aggregate sales of distilled spirits and prices, controlled for gross national product (GNP), and secondly of deaths from delirium tremens. Denmark 1911-31. Price changes were very large in the period 1916-18 due to shortages during World War I, and the Danish case can be conceived as a natural experiment. No evidence for lagged price effects in the expected direction was found. On the contrary, the evidence pointed in the opposite direction. The immediate reduction in sales following rising prices are, to some degree, counteracted by an adjustment in the opposite direction the following year. The delirium tremens data confirm this pattern. Becker's theory is not confirmed. Several possible explanations are discussed. If the pattern observed in these data is representative of a more general mechanism, current price elasticity estimates may be too high, by ignoring lagged compensatory effects.

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

17 CFR 242.401 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... security futures intermediary were not a participant. (6) Daily settlement price means, with respect to a... futures commission merchant that has been in existence for less than one year may meet the definition of... M, SHO, ATS, AC, AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin...

A Computational Investigation of Small-Molecule Engagement of Hot Spots at Protein-Protein Interaction Interfaces.

PubMed

Xu, David; Si, Yubing; Meroueh, Samy O

2017-09-25

The binding affinity of a protein-protein interaction is concentrated at amino acids known as hot spots. It has been suggested that small molecules disrupt protein-protein interactions by either (i) engaging receptor protein hot spots or (ii) mimicking hot spots of the protein ligand. Yet, no systematic studies have been done to explore how effectively existing small-molecule protein-protein interaction inhibitors mimic or engage hot spots at protein interfaces. Here, we employ explicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulations and end-point MM-GBSA free energy calculations to explore this question. We select 36 compounds for which high-quality binding affinity and cocrystal structures are available. Five complexes that belong to three classes of protein-protein interactions (primary, secondary, and tertiary) were considered, namely, BRD4•H4, XIAP•Smac, MDM2•p53, Bcl-xL•Bak, and IL-2•IL-2Rα. Computational alanine scanning using MM-GBSA identified hot-spot residues at the interface of these protein interactions. Decomposition energies compared the interaction of small molecules with individual receptor hot spots to those of the native protein ligand. Pharmacophore analysis was used to investigate how effectively small molecules mimic the position of hot spots of the protein ligand. Finally, we study whether small molecules mimic the effects of the native protein ligand on the receptor dynamics. Our results show that, in general, existing small-molecule inhibitors of protein-protein interactions do not optimally mimic protein-ligand hot spots, nor do they effectively engage protein receptor hot spots. The more effective use of hot spots in future drug design efforts may result in smaller compounds with higher ligand efficiencies that may lead to greater success in clinical trials.

A Case Study of Pharmaceutical Pricing in China: Setting the Price for Off-Patent Originators.

PubMed

Hu, Shanlian; Zhang, Yabing; He, Jiangjiang; Du, Lixia; Xu, Mingfei; Xie, Chunyan; Peng, Ying; Wang, Linan

2015-08-01

This article aims to define a value-based approach to pricing and reimbursement for off-patent originators using a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach centered on a systematic analysis of current pricing and reimbursement policies in China. A drug price policy review was combined with a quantitative analysis of China's drug purchasing database. Policy preferences were identified through a MCDA performed by interviewing well-known academic experts and industry stakeholders. The study findings indicate that the current Chinese price policy includes cost-based pricing and the establishment of maximum retail prices and premiums for off-patent originators, whereas reference pricing may be adopted in the future. The literature review revealed significant differences in the dissolution profiles between originators and generics; therefore, dissolution profiles need to be improved. Market data analysis showed that the overall price ratio of generics and off-patent originators was around 0.54-0.59 in 2002-2011, with a 40% price difference, on average. Ten differentiating value attributes were identified and MCDA was applied to test the impact of three pricing policy scenarios. With the condition of implementing quality consistency regulations and controls, a reduction in the price gap between high-quality off-patent products (including originator and generics) seemed to be the preferred policy. Patents of many drugs will expire within the next 10 years; thus, pricing will be an issue of importance for off-patent originators and generic alternatives.

Electricity pricing policy: A neo-institutional, developmental and cross-national policy design map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koundinya, Sridarshan Umesh

This dissertation explores the role of ideas and ideology in the mental policy design maps of regulators in the US and in India. The research approach is to describe the regulatory design process in the history of the US electric industry from a neo-institutional and developmental perspective. And then to use the insights of such a study to suggest policy options to a sample of Indian experts. A regulatory process model explores the interactions among normative values, regulatory instruments and historical phases in policy design. A spectrum of seven regulatory instruments--subsidized rates, average cost pricing, marginal cost pricing, time-of-use pricing, ramsey pricing, incentive regulation and spot pricing is examined. A neo-institutional perspective characterizes the process of institutionalizing these regulatory instruments as a design process that infuses them with values beyond mere technical requirements. The process model includes normative values such as efficiency, fairness, free choice and political feasibility. These values arise from an analytical classification of various market metaphors debated in the history of economic thought. The theory of development and co-evolution applied to the history of electricity regulation yields a typology of evolutionary phases in the US. The typology describes hierarchically emergent relationships between supply and demand and among the normative values. The theory hypothesizes technologically contingent relationships between pricing policies and normative values in the historical phases of dependence (or rural), independence (or urban) and interdependence (or informational). The contents of this model are represented as related elements in a policy design map that simplifies the process of designing regulatory instruments in the US. This neo-institutional, developmental policy design map was used to design a survey instrument. The survey was conducted among electricity experts in India to test the hypothesized inter-relationships among various elements at different levels of the policy design map in a cross-national context. The study adds value with a comprehensive design map that helps to organize and give coherence to the policy prescriptions made by Indian experts as they converge on one institutional model. Thus the dissertation contributes to the transfer of knowledge about regulatory practice from the US to India.

On the relative intensity of Poisson’s spot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisinger, T.; Leufke, P. M.; Gleiter, H.; Hahn, H.

2017-03-01

The Fresnel diffraction phenomenon referred to as Poisson’s spot or spot of Arago has, beside its historical significance, become relevant in a number of fields. Among them are for example fundamental tests of the super-position principle in the transition from quantum to classical physics and the search for extra-solar planets using star shades. Poisson’s spot refers to the positive on-axis wave interference in the shadow of any spherical or circular obstacle. While the spot’s intensity is equal to the undisturbed field in the plane wave picture, its intensity in general depends on a number of factors, namely the size and wavelength of the source, the size and surface corrugation of the diffraction obstacle, and the distances between source, obstacle and detector. The intensity can be calculated by solving the Fresnel-Kirchhoff diffraction integral numerically, which however tends to be computationally expensive. We have therefore devised an analytical model for the on-axis intensity of Poisson’s spot relative to the intensity of the undisturbed wave field and successfully validated it both using a simple light diffraction setup and numerical methods. The model will be useful for optimizing future Poisson-spot matter-wave diffraction experiments and determining under what experimental conditions the spot can be observed.

Optimized Read/Write Conditions of PHB Memory,

DTIC Science & Technology

PHB memory has been a good candidate for a future ultra-high density memory for these ten years. This PHB memory is considered to realize the...diameter recording spot. But not so many researchers are working on PHB memory compared to the number of researchers wrestling with realization of higher...possible in such a high density recording in 1 -microns diameter spot. Therefore one of the most important research on PHB memory is the estimation of

Butterfly Wings Are Three-Dimensional: Pupal Cuticle Focal Spots and Their Associated Structures in Junonia Butterflies.

PubMed

Taira, Wataru; Otaki, Joji M

2016-01-01

Butterfly wing color patterns often contain eyespots, which are developmentally determined at the late larval and early pupal stages by organizing activities of focal cells that can later form eyespot foci. In the pupal stage, the focal position of a future eyespot is often marked by a focal spot, one of the pupal cuticle spots, on the pupal surface. Here, we examined the possible relationships of the pupal focal spots with the underneath pupal wing tissues and with the adult wing eyespots using Junonia butterflies. Large pupal focal spots were found in two species with large adult eyespots, J. orithya and J. almana, whereas only small pupal focal spots were found in a species with small adult eyespots, J. hedonia. The size of five pupal focal spots on a single wing was correlated with the size of the corresponding adult eyespots in J. orithya. A pupal focal spot was a three-dimensional bulge of cuticle surface, and the underside of the major pupal focal spot exhibited a hollowed cuticle in a pupal case. Cross sections of a pupal wing revealed that the cuticle layer shows a curvature at a focal spot, and a positional correlation was observed between the cuticle layer thickness and its corresponding cell layer thickness. Adult major eyespots of J. orithya and J. almana exhibited surface elevations and depressions that approximately correspond to the coloration within an eyespot. Our results suggest that a pupal focal spot is produced by the organizing activity of focal cells underneath the focal spot. Probably because the focal cell layer immediately underneath a focal spot is thicker than that of its surrounding areas, eyespots of adult butterfly wings are three-dimensionally constructed. The color-height relationship in adult eyespots might have an implication in the developmental signaling for determining the eyespot color patterns.

Focusing on butterfly eyespot focus: uncoupling of white spots from eyespot bodies in nymphalid butterflies.

PubMed

Iwata, Masaki; Otaki, Joji M

2016-01-01

Developmental studies on butterfly wing color patterns often focus on eyespots. A typical eyespot (such as that of Bicyclus anynana) has a few concentric rings of dark and light colors and a white spot (called a focus) at the center. The prospective eyespot center during the early pupal stage is known to act as an organizing center. It has often been assumed, according to gradient models for positional information, that a white spot in adult wings corresponds to an organizing center and that the size of the white spot indicates how active that organizing center was. However, there is no supporting evidence for these assumptions. To evaluate the feasibility of these assumptions in nymphalid butterflies, we studied the unique color patterns of Calisto tasajera (Nymphalidae, Satyrinae), which have not been analyzed before in the literature. In the anterior forewing, one white spot was located at the center of an eyespot, but another white spot associated with either no or only a small eyespot was present in the adjacent compartment. The anterior hindwing contained two adjacent white spots not associated with eyespots, one of which showed a sparse pattern. The posterior hindwing contained two adjacent pear-shaped eyespots, and the white spots were located at the proximal side or even outside the eyespot bodies. The successive white spots within a single compartment along the midline in the posterior hindwing showed a possible trajectory of a positional determination process for the white spots. Several cases of focus-less eyespots in other nymphalid butterflies were also presented. These results argue for the uncoupling of white spots from eyespot bodies, suggesting that an eyespot organizing center does not necessarily differentiate into a white spot and that a prospective white spot does not necessarily signify organizing activity for an eyespot. Incorporation of these results in future models for butterfly wing color pattern formation is encouraged.

Butterfly Wings Are Three-Dimensional: Pupal Cuticle Focal Spots and Their Associated Structures in Junonia Butterflies

PubMed Central

Taira, Wataru; Otaki, Joji M.

2016-01-01

Butterfly wing color patterns often contain eyespots, which are developmentally determined at the late larval and early pupal stages by organizing activities of focal cells that can later form eyespot foci. In the pupal stage, the focal position of a future eyespot is often marked by a focal spot, one of the pupal cuticle spots, on the pupal surface. Here, we examined the possible relationships of the pupal focal spots with the underneath pupal wing tissues and with the adult wing eyespots using Junonia butterflies. Large pupal focal spots were found in two species with large adult eyespots, J. orithya and J. almana, whereas only small pupal focal spots were found in a species with small adult eyespots, J. hedonia. The size of five pupal focal spots on a single wing was correlated with the size of the corresponding adult eyespots in J. orithya. A pupal focal spot was a three-dimensional bulge of cuticle surface, and the underside of the major pupal focal spot exhibited a hollowed cuticle in a pupal case. Cross sections of a pupal wing revealed that the cuticle layer shows a curvature at a focal spot, and a positional correlation was observed between the cuticle layer thickness and its corresponding cell layer thickness. Adult major eyespots of J. orithya and J. almana exhibited surface elevations and depressions that approximately correspond to the coloration within an eyespot. Our results suggest that a pupal focal spot is produced by the organizing activity of focal cells underneath the focal spot. Probably because the focal cell layer immediately underneath a focal spot is thicker than that of its surrounding areas, eyespots of adult butterfly wings are three-dimensionally constructed. The color-height relationship in adult eyespots might have an implication in the developmental signaling for determining the eyespot color patterns. PMID:26731532

How to prevent the next Marathon Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

David, Frank S; Dixit, Richa

2018-01-01

In recent years, several drug companies have exploited U.S. regulatory policies to acquire exclusive rights to cheap therapies and substantially raise their prices, and Federal agencies and state governments are exploring various ways to prevent or punish such behavior in the future. Among these cases, however, Marathon Pharmaceuticals' handling of Emflaza (deflazacort) is unique, because the drug was previously only available abroad, and was never previously sold in the U.S. before the company obtained FDA approval for it. Thus, laws and policies designed to address price hikes on already-marketed drugs are unlikely to prevent additional Marathon-like scenarios. In this article, we describe in more detail the unique features of Emflaza compared with these other recent cases of drug price increases, determine the likelihood that similar situations will arise in the future, and explore legislative and administrative options to specifically prevent such behavior.

Multi-Agent simulation of generation capacity expansion decisions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botterud, A.; Mahalik, M.; Conzelmann, G.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we use a multi-agent simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze generation expansion in the Iberian electricity market. The expansion model simulates generation investment decisions of decentralized generating companies (GenCos) interacting in a complex, multidimensional environment. A probabilistic dispatch algorithm calculates prices and profits for new candidate units in different future states of the system. Uncertainties in future load, hydropower conditions, and competitorspsila actions are represented in a scenario tree, and decision analysis is used to identify the optimal expansion decision for each individual GenCo. We run the model using detailed data for the Iberian market. In a scenariomore » analysis, we look at the impact of market design variables, such as the energy price cap and carbon emission prices. We also analyze how market concentration and GenCospsila risk preferences influence the timing and choice of new generating capacity.« less

Neural basis of economic bubble behavior.

PubMed

Ogawa, A; Onozaki, T; Mizuno, T; Asamizuya, T; Ueno, K; Cheng, K; Iriki, A

2014-04-18

Throughout human history, economic bubbles have formed and burst. As a bubble grows, microeconomic behavior ceases to be constrained by realistic predictions. This contradicts the basic assumption of economics that agents have rational expectations. To examine the neural basis of behavior during bubbles, we performed functional magnetic resonance imaging while participants traded shares in a virtual stock exchange with two non-bubble stocks and one bubble stock. The price was largely deflected from the fair price in one of the non-bubble stocks, but not in the other. Their fair prices were specified. The price of the bubble stock showed a large increase and battering, as based on a real stock-market bust. The imaging results revealed modulation of the brain circuits that regulate trade behavior under different market conditions. The premotor cortex was activated only under a market condition in which the price was largely deflected from the fair price specified. During the bubble, brain regions associated with the cognitive processing that supports order decisions were identified. The asset preference that might bias the decision was associated with the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). The activity of the inferior parietal lobule (IPL) was correlated with the score of future time perspective, which would bias the estimation of future price. These regions were deemed to form a distinctive network during the bubble. A functional connectivity analysis showed that the connectivity between the DLPFC and the IPL was predominant compared with other connectivities only during the bubble. These findings indicate that uncertain and unstable market conditions changed brain modes in traders. These brain mechanisms might lead to a loss of control caused by wishful thinking, and to microeconomic bubbles that expand, on the macroscopic scale, toward bust. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, G.G.; Mayor, T.H.

This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to be used-car markets during the two energy crises of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality andmore » casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary. 17 references, 2 figures.« less

Structural Break, Stock Prices of Clean Energy Firms and Carbon Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yubao; Cai, Junyu

2018-03-01

This paper uses EU ETS carbon future price and Germany/UK clean energy firms stock indices to study the relationship between carbon market and clean energy market. By structural break test, it is found that the ‘non-stationary’ variables judged by classical unit root test do own unit roots and need taking first difference. After analysis of VAR and Granger causality test, no causal relationships are found between the two markets. However, when Hsiao’s version of causality test is employed, carbon market is found to have power in explaining the movement of stock prices of clean energy firms, and stock prices of clean energy firms also affect the carbon market.

Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

2012-12-01

In absence of of new crop varieties or significant shifts in the geography of corn production, US national corn yields variation could double by the year 2040 as a result of climate change and without adaptation this could lead the variability in US corn prices to quadruple (Diffenbaugh et al. 2012). In addition to climate induced price changes, analysis of recent commodity price spikes suggests that interventionist trade policies are partly to blame. Assuming we cannot much influence the future climate outcome, what policies can we undertake to adapt better? Can we use markets to blunt this edge? Diffenbaugh et al. find that sale of corn- ethanol for use in liquid fuel, when governed by quotas such as US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), could make US corn prices even more variable; in contrast the same food-fuel market link (we refer to it as intersectoral link) may well dampen price volatility when the sale of corn to ethanol industry is driven by higher future oil prices. The latter however comes at the cost of exposing corn prices to the greater volatility in oil markets. Similarly intervention in corn trade can make US corn prices less or more volatile by distorting international corn price transmission. A negative US corn yield shock shows that domestic corn supply falls and domestic prices to go up irrespective of whether or not markets are integrated. How much the prices go up depends on how much demand adjusts to accommodate the supply shock. Based on the forgoing analysis, one should expect that demand would adjust more readily when markets are integrated and therefore reduce the resulting price fluctuation. Simulation results confirm this response of corn markets. In terms of relative comparisons however a policy driven intersectoral integration is least effective and prices rise much more. Similarly, a positive world oil price shock makes the US oil imports expensive and with oil being used to produce gasoline blends, it increases the price of gasoline and reduces its demand. In the presence of domestic integration, ethanol production rises to substitute oil in the gasoline blend and thereby increases the corn demand and prices. However if one takes into account increase in corn price due to increased production costs (increase in oil price increases fertilizer prices - a major input into corn production) and reduced corn prices due to reduced fuel demand and therefore reduced ethanol additive demand; the prices can go either way. Our initial simulations show that they do in fact go down with mandate driven integration. This raises some more general questions: Whether integration (intersectoral and international) can be an effective strategy for adapting to climate change? And which of the four adaptation options - RFS or oil price driven domestic integration, full corn tariff liberalization or restricting tariff manipulation by partners - would be more effective in comparison to other adaptation (including no adaptation) scenarios? We implement the alternative adaptation strategies, while sampling from the same corn yield and oil price distributions and compare the resulting corn price variations to the base case where no such adaptation has been undertaken. Our initial results suggest that intersectoral integration is more effective form of adaptation than international one, but only if driven by market forces and not mandates.

78 FR 38416 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Miami International Securities Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-26

..., without limitation, options, equities, futures, derivatives, indexes, exchange traded funds, exchange...., equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures, foreign currency, and even commodities products... low as $0.05).\\13\\ \\13\\ As an example, per the CME Web site, strike prices for options on futures may...

Intermediate Term Forecasting Techniques for Management.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

of Market Efficiency", Chiras and ranaster (1978) used actual option prices to calculate implied variances of future stock returns. They found a...of F*nance, v. 2 5 , p p . 6 5 -8 1 , M a r c h 1 9 1 0 .- .... . . . 23. Chiras D. P. and Nanaster, S., "The Infcrmation Content of Otion Prices and

The Rising Price of Objectivity: Philanthropy, Government, and the Future of Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feuer, Michael J.

2016-01-01

In "The Rising Price of Objectivity," Michael J. Feuer describes what he sees as a "perfect storm" gathering in the sea of education research. He notes the convergence of three important trends: first, the rise in strategic education philanthropy; second, the decline in federal funding, in part due to ideologically contested…

77 FR 76303 - Notice of Availability of Producer Price Index (PPI) Data Users Survey

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-27

... conducted a survey of PPI data users in late 1976 through early 1977. Since that time, numerous new time series data have been introduced with the goal of fulfilling the needs of data users. This survey will... series, and identify areas for future expansion. DATES: The Producer Price Index (PPI) user survey will...

Higher cigarette prices influence cigarette purchase patterns.

PubMed

Hyland, A; Bauer, J E; Li, Q; Abrams, S M; Higbee, C; Peppone, L; Cummings, K M

2005-04-01

To examine cigarette purchasing patterns of current smokers and to determine the effects of cigarette price on use of cheaper sources, discount/generic cigarettes, and coupons. Higher cigarette prices result in decreased cigarette consumption, but price sensitive smokers may seek lower priced or tax-free cigarette sources, especially if they are readily available. This price avoidance behaviour costs states excise tax money and dampens the health impact of higher cigarette prices. Telephone survey data from 3602 US smokers who were originally in the COMMIT (community intervention trial for smoking cessation) study were analysed to assess cigarette purchase patterns, use of discount/generic cigarettes, and use of coupons. 59% reported engaging in a high price avoidance strategy, including 34% who regularly purchase from a low or untaxed venue, 28% who smoke a discount/generic cigarette brand, and 18% who report using cigarette coupons more frequently that they did five years ago. The report of engaging in a price avoidance strategy was associated with living within 40 miles of a state or Indian reservation with lower cigarette excise taxes, higher average cigarette consumption, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, and female sex. Data from this study indicate that most smokers are price sensitive and seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts.

Does reimportation reduce price differences for prescription drugs? Lessons from the European Union.

PubMed

Kyle, Margaret K; Allsbrook, Jennifer S; Schulman, Kevin A

2008-08-01

To examine the effect of parallel trade on patterns of price dispersion for prescription drugs in the European Union. Longitudinal data from an IMS Midas database of prices and units sold for drugs in 36 categories in 30 countries from 1993 through 2004. The main outcome measures were mean price differentials and other measures of price dispersion within European Union countries compared with within non-European Union countries. We identified drugs subject to parallel trade using information provided by IMS and by checking membership lists of parallel import trade associations and lists of approved parallel imports. Parallel trade was not associated with substantial reductions in price dispersion in European Union countries. In descriptive and regression analyses, about half of the price differentials exceeded 50 percent in both European Union and non-European Union countries over time, and price distributions among European Union countries did not show a dramatic change concurrent with the adoption of parallel trade. In regression analysis, we found that although price differentials decreased after 1995 in most countries, they decreased less in the European Union than elsewhere. Parallel trade for prescription drugs does not automatically reduce international price differences. Future research should explore how other regulatory schemes might lead to different results elsewhere.

Do follow-on therapeutic substitutes induce price competition between hospital medicines? Evidence from the Danish hospital sector.

PubMed

Hostenkamp, Gisela

2013-06-01

The pricing of follow-on drugs, that offer only limited health benefits over existing therapeutic alternatives, is a recurring health policy debate. This study investigates whether follow-on therapeutic substitutes create price competition between branded hospital medicines. New follow-on drugs and their incumbent therapeutic competitors were identified from Danish sales and product registration data on hospital pharmaceuticals using medically relevant criteria. We examined whether follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors, and whether incumbent competitors react to entry of follow-ons through price adjustments using a random intercept panel model. We found no evidence that follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors. Furthermore, potentially due to low sample size, we found no evidence that prices for incumbent pioneer products were significantly reduced as a reaction to competition from follow-on drugs. Competition between patented therapeutic substitutes did not seem to increase price competition and containment of pharmaceutical expenditures in the Danish hospital market. Strengthening hospitals' incentives to consider the price of alternative treatment options paired with a more active formulary management may increase price competition between therapeutic substitutes in the Danish hospital sector in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

PubMed

Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

2017-06-01

Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

PubMed

Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

2018-03-01

Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

Variation in Prices of Cardiovascular Drugs in Public and Private Pharmacies in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kandel, Nirajan; Subedi, Narayan; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-01-01

Introduction: Higher price of cardiovascular drugs is one of the reasons for high out-of-pocket expenditure in cardiovascular care. The objective of the study was to determine the price variation in commonly available cardiovascular drugs between public and private hospital pharmacies in Nepal. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 3 public and 3 private pharmacies in tertiary-level hospitals in Nepal. The price was recorded for the list of drugs commonly available in those pharmacies. A total of 23 drugs were selected for data collection. The price was recorded based on the payment receipt and price reported by surrogate customers. We defined the price variation as the difference between price of cardiovascular drugs between public hospital and private pharmacy. The price variation was expressed as percentage. Results: Price of Amlodipine 5 mg was higher by 667% in private pharmacy nearby Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH) compared to that of TUTH pharmacy. Price of Enalapril 5 mg was higher by 14.47% in Manmohan Cardio Thoracic and Vascular Transplant Centre (MCVTC) compared to nearby private pharmacy. We observed that the price of cardiovascular drugs varied significantly between hospital and private retail pharmacies in TUTH (P < .001) and MCVTC (P < .001). Conclusion: For most of the cardiovascular drugs, the price in private retail pharmacies were significantly higher than in hospital pharmacies. Future steps should be taken to establish and run own pharmacies in hospitals which would reduce the cost of medicine and thereby, increase access to medicine. PMID:28462249

Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

Residential water demand model under block rate pricing: A case study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Yang, Z. F.

2009-05-01

In many cities, the inconsistency between water supply and water demand has become a critical problem because of deteriorating water shortage and increasing water demand. Uniform price of residential water cannot promote the efficient water allocation. In China, block water price will be put into practice in the future, but the outcome of such regulation measure is unpredictable without theory support. In this paper, the residential water is classified by the volume of water usage based on economic rules and block water is considered as different kinds of goods. A model based on extended linear expenditure system (ELES) is constructed to simulate the relationship between block water price and water demand, which provide theoretical support for the decision-makers. Finally, the proposed model is used to simulate residential water demand under block rate pricing in Beijing.

Determining optimal selling price and lot size with process reliability and partial backlogging considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Tsu-Pang; Cheng, Mei-Chuan; Dye, Chung-Yuan; Ouyang, Liang-Yuh

2011-01-01

In this article, we extend the classical economic production quantity (EPQ) model by proposing imperfect production processes and quality-dependent unit production cost. The demand rate is described by any convex decreasing function of the selling price. In addition, we allow for shortages and a time-proportional backlogging rate. For any given selling price, we first prove that the optimal production schedule not only exists but also is unique. Next, we show that the total profit per unit time is a concave function of price when the production schedule is given. We then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price and production schedule for the proposed model. Finally, we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm and conclude this article with suggestions for possible future research.

Micro-CT application for infiltration technology in paedodontics and orthodontics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogodescu, Alexandru; Manescu, Adrian; Ogodescu, Ana Emilia; Giuliani, Alessandra; Todea, Carmen

2014-01-01

White spot lesions are an early evidence of the demineralization of the enamel surface and are the first step of future caries that will develop on those spots. Recently, a new and innovative biotechnology was developed - Icon, a caries infiltrant to be introduced in early tooth lesions, able to achieve a very good preservation of dental structures. In order to assess the infiltrant penetration level inside the white spot lesions, a non-destructive 3D visualization method is needed. Phase-contrast micro computed tomography using synchrotron radiation proved to be a powerful technique, allowing a 3D morphological investigation of all the components of interest: tooth structure, white spot lesions extension, infiltrant penetration inside the lesions, without the need of slicing the specimens. From our clinical experience and the conducted research we can conclude that this technology is effective and useful in many clinical situations encountered in pediatric dentistry.

Sweet spots, EROI, and the limits to Bakken production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waggoner, Egan Greiner

The Bakken Formation has generated attention due to its substantial role in the recent surge in US domestic oil production. However there may be significant problems in extrapolating past successes because production is not distributed equally, but is concentrated in "sweet spots." These sweet spots are saturated with wells, and some productive fields are declining already. If we are to maintain a consistent or increasing level of production from more marginal areas, an increasing number of wells must be drilled. As the most attractive areas for exploration and production appear already to have been drilled, new fields are likely to be less energetically and economically profitable. I analyze current and future production using the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) metric, a ratio of energy outputs over energy inputs. My results indicate that EROISTND for the sweet spot Parshall Field is 63:1 and the more energy cost-inclusive EROIFIN is 9:1.

Outlooks for Wind Power in the United States: Drivers and Trends under a 2016 Policy Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Lantz, Eric; Ho, Jonathan

Over the past decade, wind power has become one of the fastest growing electricity generation sources in the United States. Despite this growth, the U.S. wind industry continues to experience year-to-year fluctuations across the manufacturing and supply chain as a result of dynamic market conditions and changing policy landscapes. Moreover, with advancing wind technologies, ever-changing fossil fuel prices, and evolving energy policies, the long-term future for wind power is highly uncertain. In this report, we present multiple outlooks for wind power in the United States, to explore the possibilities of future wind deployment. The future wind power outlooks presented relymore » on high-resolution wind resource data and advanced electric sector modeling capabilities to evaluate an array of potential scenarios of the U.S. electricity system. Scenario analysis is used to explore drivers, trends, and implications for wind power deployment over multiple periods through 2050. Specifically, we model 16 scenarios of wind deployment in the contiguous United States. These scenarios span a wide range of wind technology costs, natural gas prices, and future transmission expansion. We identify conditions with more consistent wind deployment after the production tax credit expires as well as drivers for more robust wind growth in the long run. Conversely, we highlight challenges to future wind deployment. We find that the degree to which wind technology costs decline can play an important role in future wind deployment, electric sector CO 2 emissions, and lowering allowance prices for the Clean Power Plan.« less

Telemetry-based mortality estimates of juvenile spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedl, Sarah E.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Scharf, Frederick S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

We estimated natural mortality rates (M) of age-1 Spot Leiostomus xanthurus by using a sonic telemetry approach. Sonic transmitters were surgically implanted into a total of 123 age-1 Spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks during spring 2009 and 2010, and the fish were monitored by using a stationary acoustic receiver array and manual tracking. Fates of telemetered Spot were inferred based on telemetry information from estimated locations and swimming speeds. Potential competitors of age-1 Spot were assessed through simultaneous otter trawl sampling, while potential predators of Spot were collected using gill nets and trammel nets. The number of inferred natural mortalities was zero in 2009 (based on 29 telemetered Spot at risk) and four in 2010 (based on 52 fish at risk), with fish being at risk for up to about 70 d each year. Catches of potential competitors or predators did not differ between years, and age-1 Spot were not found in analyzed stomach contents of potential predators. Our estimated 30-d M of 0.03 (95% credible interval = 0.01–0.07) was lower than that predicted from weight-based (M = 0.07) and life-history-based (M = 0.06–0.36) estimates. Our field-based estimate of M for age-1 Spot in this estuarine system can assist in the assessment and management of Spot by allowing a direct comparison with M-values predicted from fish size or life history characteristics. The field telemetry and statistical analysis techniques developed here provide guidance for future telemetry studies of relatively small fish in open, dynamic habitat systems, as they highlight strengths and weaknesses of using a telemetry approach to estimate M.

Comparison between dried blood spot and plasma sampling for therapeutic drug monitoring of antiepileptic drugs in children with epilepsy: A step towards home sampling.

PubMed

Linder, Camilla; Wide, Katarina; Walander, Malin; Beck, Olof; Gustafsson, Lars L; Pohanka, Anton

2017-05-01

To investigate if dried blood spots could be used for therapeutic drug monitoring of the antiepileptic drugs, carbamazepine, lamotrigine and valproic acid in children with epilepsy. Fingerprick blood samples from 46 children at a neuropediatric outpatient clinic was collected on filterpaper at the same time as capillary plasma sampling. A validated dried blood spot liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method for carbamazepine, lamotrigine and valproic acid was compared with the routine plasma laboratory methods. Method agreement was evaluated and plasma concentrations were estimated by different conversion approaches. Strong correlation was shown between dried blood spot and plasma concentrations for all three drugs, with R2 values>0.89. Regression analysis showed a proportional bias with 35% lower dried blood spot concentrations for valproic acid (n=33) and concentrations were 18% higher for carbamazepine (n=17). A ratio approach was used to make a conversion from dried blood spots to estimated plasma for these two drugs. Dried blood spot concentrations were directly comparable with plasma for lamotrigine (n=20). This study supports that dried blood spot concentrations can be used as an alternative to plasma in a children population for three commonly used antiepileptic drugs with the possibility to expand by adding other antiepileptic drugs. Clinical decisions can be made based on converted (carbamazepine, valproic acid) or unconverted (lamotrigine) dried blood spot concentrations. Dried blood spot sampling, in the future taken at home, will simplify an effective therapeutic drug monitoring for this group of patients who often have concomitant disorders and also reduce costs for society. Copyright © 2016 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CT angiography spot sign in intracerebral hemorrhage predicts active bleeding during surgery.

PubMed

Brouwers, H Bart; Raffeld, Miriam R; van Nieuwenhuizen, Koen M; Falcone, Guido J; Ayres, Alison M; McNamara, Kristen A; Schwab, Kristin; Romero, Javier M; Velthuis, Birgitta K; Viswanathan, Anand; Greenberg, Steven M; Ogilvy, Christopher S; van der Zwan, Albert; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Goldstein, Joshua N; Klijn, Catharina J M; Rosand, Jonathan

2014-09-02

To determine whether the CT angiography (CTA) spot sign marks bleeding complications during and after surgery for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). In a 2-center study of consecutive spontaneous ICH patients who underwent CTA followed by surgical hematoma evacuation, 2 experienced readers (blinded to clinical and surgical data) reviewed CTAs for spot sign presence. Blinded raters assessed active intraoperative and postoperative bleeding. The association between spot sign and active intraoperative bleeding, postoperative rebleeding, and residual ICH volumes was evaluated using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. A total of 95 patients met inclusion criteria: 44 lobar, 17 deep, 33 cerebellar, and 1 brainstem ICH; ≥1 spot sign was identified in 32 patients (34%). The spot sign was the only independent marker of active bleeding during surgery (odds ratio [OR] 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-9.0). Spot sign (OR 4.1; 95% CI 1.1-17), female sex (OR 6.9; 95% CI 1.7-37), and antiplatelet use (OR 4.6; 95% CI 1.2-21) were predictive of postoperative rebleeding. Larger residual hematomas and postoperative rebleeding were associated with higher discharge case fatality (OR 3.4; 95% CI 1.1-11) and a trend toward increased case fatality at 3 months (OR 2.9; 95% CI 0.9-8.8). The CTA spot sign is associated with more intraoperative bleeding, more postoperative rebleeding, and larger residual ICH volumes in patients undergoing hematoma evacuation for spontaneous ICH. The spot sign may therefore be useful to select patients for future surgical trials. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Effects of fire on spotted owl site occupancy in a late-successional forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, Susan L.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Miles, A. Keith; Kelt, Douglas A.

2011-01-01

The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a late-successional forest dependent species that is sensitive to forest management practices throughout its range. An increase in the frequency and spatial extent of standreplacing fires in western North America has prompted concern for the persistence of spotted owls and other sensitive late-successional forest associated species. However, there is sparse information on the effects of fire on spotted owls to guide conservation policies. In 2004-2005, we surveyed for California spotted owls during the breeding season at 32 random sites (16 burned, 16 unburned) throughout late-successional montane forest in Yosemite National Park, California. Our burned areas burned at all severities, but predominately involved low to moderate fire severity. Based on an information theoretic approach, spotted owl detection and occupancy rates were similar between burned and unburned sites. Nest and roost site occupancy was best explained by a model that combined total tree basal area (positive effect) with cover by coarse woody debris (negative effect). The density estimates of California spotted owl pairs were similar in burned and unburned forests, and the overall mean density estimate for Yosemite was higher than previously reported for montane forests. Our results indicate that low to moderate severity fires, historically common within montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, maintain habitat characteristics essential for spotted owl site occupancy. These results suggest that managed fires that emulate the historic fire regime of these forests may maintain spotted owl habitat and protect this species from the effects of future catastrophic fires.

A Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange to Grow the Lunar Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahan, B. B. C.

2017-10-01

This paper proposes to establish a Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange in order to define and trade essential commodities that, when traded on an open exchange, improve availability, quality, price discovery, financeability, and equal access.

Trends in beverage prices following the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Barbados.

PubMed

Alvarado, Miriam; Kostova, Deliana; Suhrcke, Marc; Hambleton, Ian; Hassell, Trevor; Samuels, T Alafia; Adams, Jean; Unwin, Nigel

2017-12-01

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014-2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to <1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Journal pricing issues: an economic perspective.

PubMed Central

Hafner, A W; Podsadecki, T J; Whitely, W P

1990-01-01

Scientific journal prices have increased markedly in the past two decades, outpacing inflation by severalfold. Such increases challenge the librarian's ability to manage acquisitions resources effectively and threaten the mission of the health sciences library as a resource for present and future scientific information needs. Explanations for serial price increases vary with the point of view considered. Publishers, librarians, faculty, and consumers of scientific information perceive the situation differently. This paper provides an economic analysis of each group's views. Particular emphasis is given to the aspects of journal publishing and pricing that foster price increases. In addition, the paper examines the problems of dual-pricing structures and narrowly focused journals that cater to subspecialties of medicine. Suggested responses to subscription rate increases are offered to curtail further increases and to avoid the potential detrimental effects of reduced library collections. Since one of the underpinnings of education is threatened by reductions in library collections, actions must be taken by publishers, librarians, faculty, and professional associations to ameliorate the present situation and to limit additional increases in serial prices. PMID:2203496

Some key techniques of SPOT-5 image processing in new national land and resources investigation project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Changsheng; Li, Qingquan; Li, Deren

2004-02-01

In 1988, the detail information on land resource was investigated in China. Fourteen years later, it has changed a lot. It is necessary that the second land resource detailed investigation should be implemented. On this condition, the New National Land and Resources Investigation Project in China, which will last 12 years, has been started since 1999. The project is directly under the administration of the Ministry of Land and Resource (MLR). It was organized and implemented By China Geological, China Land Surveying and Planning Institute (CLSPI) and Information Center of MLR. It is a grand and cross century project supported by the Central Finance, based on State and public interests and strategic characteristics. Up to now, "Land Use Dynamic Monitoring By Remote Sensing," "Arable Land Resource Investigation," "Rural Collective Land Property Right Investgiation," "Establishment of Public Consulting Standardization of Cadastral Information," "Land Resource Fundamental Maps and Data Updating," "Urban Land Price Investigation and Intensive Utilization Potential Capacity Evaluation," "Farmland Classification, Gradation, and Evaluation," "Land Use Database Construction at City or County Level" 8 subprojects have had the preliminary achievements. In this project, SPOT-1/2/4 and Landsat-7 TM data were always applied to monitor land use dynamic change as the main data resource. Certainly, IRS, CBERS-2, and IKONOS data also were tested in small areas. In 2002, the SPOT-5 data, whose spatial resolution of the panchromatic image is 2.5 meters and the spectral one is 10 meters, were applied into update the land use base map at the 1:10000 scale in 26 Chinese cities. The purpose in this paper is to communicate the experience of SPOT-5 image processing with the colleagues.

77 FR 58600 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... approving expansion of STO Program)[sic]. \\9\\ These include, without limitation, options, equities, futures... hedging strategies across various investment platforms (e.g. equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures... Web site, strike prices for options on futures may be at an interval of $.05, $.10, and $.25 per...

76 FR 50276 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; OneChicago, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-12

... for Four Decimal Point Pricing for Block and Exchange for Physical (``EFPs'') Trades August 8, 2011... block trades and the futures component of EFP trades to be traded/priced in four decimals points. Regular trades (non-block or non EFP) will continue to trade in only two decimal points. The text of the...

Achievements in the utilzation of poplar wood : guideposts for the future : [abstract

Treesearch

John J. Balatinecz; Andre Leclercq; David E. Kretschmann

2000-01-01

Poplar wood is suitable and is utilized for a broad range of forest products worldwide. The utilization of any species is governed by a number of factors, such as basic wood properties, overall quality, quantity and price of the resource, available processing technologies, local as well as international market conditions for the products, and the availability and price...

"I'm Glad I Was Designed": Un/Doing Gender and Class in Susan Price's "Odin Trilogy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lehtonen, Sanna

2012-01-01

Susan Price's "Odin Trilogy" (2005-2008) is a juvenile science fiction series that depicts a future where class relations have become polarised due to late capitalist and technological developments and where ways of doing gender continue to be strongly connected with class. The society in the novels is based on slavery: people are either…

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Price Determination of General Aviation, Helicopter, and Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1978-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for general aviation, helicopter, and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly as to how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

Price-Weight Relationships of General Aviation, Helicopters, Transport Aircraft and Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1981-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's cost to manufacture, economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for sailplanes, general aviation, agriculture, helicopter, business and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

Deep drilling continues, though records don't show it

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1989-02-01

This article discusses how, although current prices may not appear to merit the expense of drilling for deep gas today, operators are looking beyond the immediate future. Faith in the future of deep gas drillers onward. Current prices may not justify it, but there is still a great deal of interest in the really deep plays. Technically, there was only one drilling record in 1988. The E.L. Spence Trust 1, in Missouri's Reelfoot Rift region of the Mississippi embayment, was drilled to the Lamotte formation at 10,089 ft. This well surpassed the old record of 4,906 ft set back inmore » 1966.« less

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Farmers Insures Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freifeld, Lorri

2012-01-01

Farmers Insurance claims the No. 2 spot on the Training Top 125 with a forward-thinking training strategy linked to its primary mission: FarmersFuture 2020. It's not surprising an insurance company would have an insurance policy for the future. But Farmers takes that strategy one step further, setting its sights on 2020 with a far-reaching plan to…

Environmental Response Laboratory Network (ERLN) Basic Ordering Agreement Example

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A BOA is a written instrument of understanding between EPA and a laboratory that contains terms and clauses applying to all future orders, a description of services to be provided, and methods for pricing, issuing, and delivering future orders.

Economic study of future aircraft fuels (1970-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1972-01-01

Future aircraft fuels are evaluated in terms of fuel resource availability and pricing, processing methods, and economic projections over the period 1970-2000. Liquefied hydrogen, methane and propane are examined as potential turbine engine aircraft fuels relative to current JP fuel.

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

2007-01-01

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

PubMed

Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

2013-01-01

Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory.

PubMed

Bao, Wei; Yue, Jun; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day's closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance.

Does Reimportation Reduce Price Differences for Prescription Drugs? Lessons from the European Union

PubMed Central

Kyle, Margaret K; Allsbrook, Jennifer S; Schulman, Kevin A

2008-01-01

Objective To examine the effect of parallel trade on patterns of price dispersion for prescription drugs in the European Union. Data Sources Longitudinal data from an IMS Midas database of prices and units sold for drugs in 36 categories in 30 countries from 1993 through 2004. Study Design The main outcome measures were mean price differentials and other measures of price dispersion within European Union countries compared with within non-European Union countries. Data Collection/Extraction Methods We identified drugs subject to parallel trade using information provided by IMS and by checking membership lists of parallel import trade associations and lists of approved parallel imports. Principal Findings Parallel trade was not associated with substantial reductions in price dispersion in European Union countries. In descriptive and regression analyses, about half of the price differentials exceeded 50 percent in both European Union and non-European Union countries over time, and price distributions among European Union countries did not show a dramatic change concurrent with the adoption of parallel trade. In regression analysis, we found that although price differentials decreased after 1995 in most countries, they decreased less in the European Union than elsewhere. Conclusions Parallel trade for prescription drugs does not automatically reduce international price differences. Future research should explore how other regulatory schemes might lead to different results elsewhere. PMID:18355258

Study on Bidding Strategy and Market Clearing Price in Electric Power Day-ahead Market using Market Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Tetsuo; Kadoya, Toshihisa

In an electric power day-ahead market, market prices are not always cleared at marginal cost caused by the strategic bidding of generators. This paper presents the results of day-ahead market simulation that analyzes profits depending upon bidding strategies in an electric power day-ahead market. It is clarified that MCP (Market Clearing Price) is easily managed by only one player and does not easily decline after it has gone up once. Moreover the mutual interference among day-ahead markets, future markets, increase of generators, etc. are also discussed.

Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

2002-01-01

There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government contribution, tax-breaks, loan guarantees, etc. The optimization performed here is for a 3rd Generation RLV program. The economic metric being optimized (maximized) is Net Present Value (NPV) based upon a given company financial structure and cost of capital assumptions. Such an optimization process demands more sophisticated optimizers and can result in non-unique solutions/local minimums if using gradient-based optimization. Domain spanning/evolutionary algorithms are used to obtain the optimized solution in the design space. These capabilities generally increase model calculation time but incorporate realistic pricing portfolios than just assuming one unified price for all launch markets. This analysis is conducted with CABAM running in Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter 4.0 collaborative design environment using the SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) OptWorks suite of optimization components.

Non-urban mobile radio market demand forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castruccio, P. A.; Cooper, J.

1982-01-01

A national nonmetropolitan land mobile traffic model for 1990-2000 addresses user classes, density classes, traffic mix statistics, distance distribution, geographic distribution, price elasticity, and service quality elasticity. Traffic demands for business, special industrial, and police were determined on the basis of surveys in 73 randomly selected nonurban counties. The selected services represent 69% of total demand. The results were extrapolated to all services in the non-SMSA areas of the contiguous United States. Radiotelephone services were considered separately. Total non-SMSA mobile radio demand (one way) estimates are given. General functional requirements include: hand portability, privacy, reduction of blind spots, two way data transmission, position location, slow scan imagery.

Follow Your Heart: How Is Willingness to Pay Formed under Multiple Anchors?

PubMed Central

Lin, Chien-Huang; Chen, Ming

2017-01-01

In sales, a common promotional tactic is to supplement a required purchase (i.e., a focal product) by offering a free or discounted product (i.e., a supplementary product). The present research examines the contextual factors driving consumer evaluations of the supplementary product after the promotion has been terminated. Two experiments are used to demonstrate that consumers use multiple anchors to determine the value of a supplementary product. Consumers use other types of price information, such as the internal reference price (IRP), promotional price, and original price of the supplementary product, as anchors to adjust their willingness to pay. Among the multiple anchors, the consumer’s IRP is not only the crucial anchor to estimate the willingness to pay but also the criterion to determine whether other price information can serve as anchors. Price information, such as the promotional and original price of the supplementary product, which is higher (lower) than the IRP, will increase (decrease) the willingness to pay. However, these anchors are only employed when the price information is considered to be plausible. Assimilation and contrast effects occur when the IRP is used by consumers as a criterion to judge the reasonableness of other anchors. When the external price information belongs (does not belong) to consumers’ distribution of IRP, assimilation (contrast) effects occur, and consumers will regard the external reference price (ERP) to be a plausible (implausible) price. Limitations and future avenues for research are also discussed. PMID:29312098

Follow Your Heart: How Is Willingness to Pay Formed under Multiple Anchors?

PubMed

Lin, Chien-Huang; Chen, Ming

2017-01-01

In sales, a common promotional tactic is to supplement a required purchase (i.e., a focal product) by offering a free or discounted product (i.e., a supplementary product). The present research examines the contextual factors driving consumer evaluations of the supplementary product after the promotion has been terminated. Two experiments are used to demonstrate that consumers use multiple anchors to determine the value of a supplementary product. Consumers use other types of price information, such as the internal reference price (IRP), promotional price, and original price of the supplementary product, as anchors to adjust their willingness to pay. Among the multiple anchors, the consumer's IRP is not only the crucial anchor to estimate the willingness to pay but also the criterion to determine whether other price information can serve as anchors. Price information, such as the promotional and original price of the supplementary product, which is higher (lower) than the IRP, will increase (decrease) the willingness to pay. However, these anchors are only employed when the price information is considered to be plausible. Assimilation and contrast effects occur when the IRP is used by consumers as a criterion to judge the reasonableness of other anchors. When the external price information belongs (does not belong) to consumers' distribution of IRP, assimilation (contrast) effects occur, and consumers will regard the external reference price (ERP) to be a plausible (implausible) price. Limitations and future avenues for research are also discussed.

Reducing heliostat field costs by direct measurement and control of the mirror orientation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Donker, P.; Rosinga, G.; van Voorthuysen, E. du Marchie

2016-05-01

The first commercial CSP Central Receiver System has been in operation since 2007. The technology required for such a central receiver system is quite new. The determining factor of the price of electricity is the capital investment in the heliostat field. The cost level per square meter of the heliostat field is rather high. Sun2point is questioning the market development, which is trying to get the cost level down by aiming at large heliostats. Sun2Point aims at mass manufacturing small heliostats to achieve low prices. Mass manufacturing off-site and transport over long distances is possible for small heliostats only. Calibration on the spot is a labour-intensive activity. Autonomous, factory calibrated and wireless controlled heliostats are the solution to lower installation cost. A new measurement method that directly reports the orientation of the heliostat in relation to the earth and the sun can solve the calibration problem when the heliostats are installed. The application of small heliostats will be much cheaper as a result of this measurement method. In this paper several methods for such a measurement are described briefly. The new Sun2Point method has successfully been tested. In this paper Sun2Point challenges the CSP community to investigate this approach. A brief survey is presented of many aspects that lead to a low price.

[INVITED] Coupling of polarisation of high frequency electric field and electronic heat conduction in laser created plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamaly, Eugene G.; Rode, Andrei V.

2016-08-01

Powerful short laser pulse focused on a surface swiftly transforms the solid into the thermally and electrically inhomogeneous conductive plasma with the large temperature and dielectric permeability gradients across the focal spot. The laser-affected spot becomes thermally inhomogeneous with where temperature has maximum in the centre and gradually decreasing to the boundaries of the spot in accord to the spatial intensity distribution of the Gaussian pulse. Here we study the influence of laser polarisation on ionization and absorption of laser radiation in the focal spot. In this paper we would like to discuss new effect in thermally inhomogeneous plasma under the action of imposed high frequency electric field. We demonstrate that high-frequency (HF) electric field is coupled with the temperature gradient generating the additional contribution to the conventional electronic heat flow. The additional heat flow strongly depends on the polarisation of the external field. It appears that effect has maximum when the imposed electric field is collinear to the thermal gradient directed along the radius of a circular focal spot. Therefore, the linear polarised field converts the circular laser affected spot into an oval with the larger oval's axis parallel to the field direction. We compare the developed theory to the available experiments, discuss the results and future directions.

Increasing Competition for Spares within AFLC (Air Force Logistics Center). Revision.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-30

Managers 45 On Competing the Production of Weapon Systems 46 Sole Source and Competitive Price Trends in Spare Parts Acquisition 47 Controlled...future directions in research and policy . 3- TOPIC: Acquisition TYPE: AFIT Thesis TITLE: Spares Acquisition Integrated with Production and Its...evaluate Air Force management policies , procedures, practices, and controls over the acquisition and pricing of spare parts. Specific objectives

The future of rare earth elements—will these high-tech industry elements continue in short supply?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Keith R.

2011-01-01

* REE will continue to find increasing use due to their unique properties. * There is a realistic possibility around 2015-2016 of sufficient REE capacity to meet demand under conditions of healthy price competition. * REE supplies will be tight and prices high for a few years. * There is significant downside risk that newly developed mines will not perform as planned.

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Climate regulation enhances the value of second generation biofuel technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.; Tyner, W.

2014-12-01

Commercial scale implementation of second generation (2G) biofuels has long been 'just over the horizon - perhaps a decade away'. However, with recent innovations, and higher oil prices, we appear to be on the verge of finally seeing commercial scale implementations of cellulosic to liquid fuel conversion technologies. Interest in this technology derives from many quarters. Environmentalists see this as a way of reducing our carbon footprint, however, absent a global market for carbon emissions, private firms will not factor this into their investment decisions. Those interested in poverty and nutrition see this as a channel for lessening the biofuels' impact on food prices. But what is 2G technology worth to society? How valuable are prospective improvements in this technology? And how are these valuations affected by future uncertainties, including climate regulation, climate change impacts, and energy prices? This paper addresses all of these questions. We employ FABLE, a dynamic optimization model for the world's land resources which characterizes the optimal long run path for protected natural lands, managed forests, crop and livestock land use, energy extraction and biofuels over the period 2005-2105. By running this model twice for each future state of the world - once with 2G biofuels technology available and once without - we measure the contribution of the technology to global welfare. Given the uncertainty in how these technologies are likely to evolve, we consider a range cost estimates - from optimistic to pessimistic. In addition to technological uncertainty, there is great uncertainty in the conditions characterizing our baseline for the 21st century. For each of the 2G technology scenarios, we therefore also consider a range of outcomes for key drivers of global land use, including: population, income, oil prices, climate change impacts and climate regulation. We find that the social valuation of 2G technologies depends critically on climate change regulations and future oil prices. In the base case with no climate policy and higher oil prices, the value of second generation biofuels is roughly $8 billion. With stringent climate change regulations in place, 2G biofuels are worth about fifty percent more.

Phenotyping at hot spots and tagging of QTLs conferring spot blotch resistance in bread wheat.

PubMed

Singh, Virender; Singh, Gyanendra; Chaudhury, A; Ojha, Ashish; Tyagi, B S; Chowdhary, A K; Sheoran, Sonia

2016-11-01

Spot blotch is a major foliar disease of wheat caused by Bipolaris sorokiniana in warm and humid environments of the world including South Asian countries. In India, it has a larger impact in Indo-Gangetic plains of the country. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to phenotype a mapping population at different hot spots of India and to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for resistance to spot blotch in wheat. For this study, 209 single seed descent (SSD) derived F 8 , F 9 , F 10 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of the cross 'Sonalika' (an Indian susceptible cultivar)/'BH 1146' (a Brazilian resistant cultivar) were assessed for spot blotch resistance at two hot spot locations (Coochbehar and Kalyani) for three years and for two years under controlled conditions in the polyhouse (Karnal). The population showed large variation in spot blotch reaction for disease severity in all the environments indicating polygenic nature of the disease. Microsatellite markers were used to create the linkage maps. Joint and/or individual year analysis by composite interval mapping (CIM) and likelihood of odds ratio (LOD) >2.1, detected two consistent QTLs mapped on chromosome 7BL and 7DL and these explained phenotypic variation of 11.4 percent and 9.5 percent over the years and locations, respectively. The resistance at these loci was contributed by the parent 'BH 1146' and shown to be independent of plant height and earliness. Besides, association of some agro-morphological traits has also been observed with percent disease severity. These identified genomic regions may be used in future wheat breeding programs through marker assisted selection for developing spot blotch resistant cultivars.

Multi-indication and Combination Pricing and Reimbursement of Pharmaceuticals: Opportunities for Improved Health Care through Faster Uptake of New Innovations.

PubMed

Persson, Ulf; Norlin, J M

2018-04-01

Many pharmaceuticals are effective in multiple indications and the degree of effectiveness may differ. A product-based pricing and reimbursement system with a single price per product is insufficient to reflect the variable values between different indications. The objective of this article is to present examples of actual pricing and reimbursement decisions using current value-based pricing in Sweden and to discuss their implications and possible solutions. The value of several cancer drugs was estimated for various indications based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 million SEK (EUR 104,000) per QALY gained. For some drugs, the estimated value was higher than the drug acquisition cost in several indications, whilst in others, the estimated value was lower than the drug acquisition cost. Drugs used in combination present a special case. If a drug prolongs survival and consequently also a continued use of the anchor drug, the combination use may not be cost effective even at a zero price. In a product-based pricing and reimbursement system, patients may not get access to drugs or access may be delayed and manufacturers may be discouraged to invest in future indications. To overcome these issues, there are several approaches to link price and value. One approach is a "weighted-average" price based on an average of the value across all indications. Another is "multi-indication pricing," which enables price differentiation between indications. However, there are several barriers for applying multi-indication pricing and reimbursement schemes. One barrier is the lack of existing administrative infrastructure to track patients' indications.

Determining Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection among BCG-Immunised Ugandan Children by T-SPOT.TB and Tuberculin Skin Testing

PubMed Central

Nkurunungi, Gyaviira; Lutangira, Jimreeves E.; Lule, Swaib A.; Akurut, Hellen; Kizindo, Robert; Fitchett, Joseph R.; Kizito, Dennison; Sebina, Ismail; Muhangi, Lawrence; Webb, Emily L.; Cose, Stephen; Elliott, Alison M.

2012-01-01

Background Children with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) represent a huge reservoir for future disease. We wished to determine Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection prevalence among BCG-immunised five-year-old children in Entebbe, Uganda, but there are limited data on the performance of immunoassays for diagnosis of tuberculosis infection in children in endemic settings. We therefore evaluated agreement between a commercial interferon gamma release assay (T-SPOT.TB) and the tuberculin skin test (TST; 2 units RT-23 tuberculin; positive defined as diameter ≥10 mm), along with the reproducibility of T-SPOT.TB on short-term follow-up, in this population. Methodology/Principal Findings We recruited 907 children of which 56 were household contacts of TB patients. They were tested with T-SPOT.TB at age five years and then re-examined with T-SPOT.TB (n = 405) and TST (n = 319) approximately three weeks later. The principal outcome measures were T-SPOT.TB and TST positivity. At five years, 88 (9.7%) children tested positive by T-SPOT.TB. More than half of those that were T-SPOT.TB positive at five years were negative at follow-up, whereas 96% of baseline negatives were consistently negative. We observed somewhat better agreement between initial and follow-up T-SPOT.TB results among household TB contacts (κ = 0.77) than among non-contacts (κ = 0.39). Agreement between T-SPOT.TB and TST was weak (κ = 0.28 and κ = 0.40 for T-SPOT.TB at 5 years and follow-up, respectively). Of 28 children who were positive on both T-SPOT.TB tests, 14 (50%) had a negative TST. Analysis of spot counts showed high levels of instability in responses between baseline and follow-up, indicating variability in circulating numbers of T cells specific for certain M.tb antigens. Conclusions/Significance We found that T-SPOT.TB positives are unstable over a three-week follow-up interval, and that TST compares poorly with T-SPOT.TB, making the categorisation of children as TB-infected or TB-uninfected difficult. Existing tools for the diagnosis of TB infection are unsatisfactory in determining infection among children in this setting. PMID:23077594

Spatiotemporal analysis of changes in lode mining claims around the McDermitt Caldera, northern Nevada and southern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coyan, Joshua; Zientek, Michael L.; Mihalasky, Mark J.

2017-01-01

Resource managers and agencies involved with planning for future federal land needs are required to complete an assessment of and forecast for future land use every ten years. Predicting mining activities on federal lands is difficult as current regulations do not require disclosure of exploration results. In these cases, historic mining claims may serve as a useful proxy for determining where mining-related activities may occur. We assess the utility of using a space–time cube (STC) and associated analyses to evaluate and characterize mining claim activities around the McDermitt Caldera in northern Nevada and southern Oregon. The most significant advantage of arranging the mining claim data into a STC is the ability to visualize and compare the data, which allows scientists to better understand patterns and results. Additional analyses of the STC (i.e., Trend, Emerging Hot Spot, Hot Spot, and Cluster and Outlier Analyses) provide extra insights into the data and may aid in predicting future mining claim activities.

Preliminary appraisal of hydrogen and methane fuel in a Mach 2.7 supersonic transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlow, J. B., Jr.; Weber, R. J.; Civinskas, K. C.

1972-01-01

The higher heating value of hydrogen relative to JP fuel is estimated to reduce fuel weight by three fold and gross weight by 40 percent for comparable designed airplanes of equal payload and range. Engine design parameters were varied to determine the influence of lower noise goals on gross weight and direct operating cost. At current fuel prices, the DOC of a hydrogen airplane would be much higher than that of a JP airplane. A methane airplane could offer an 8.5-percent lower KOC than JP. But future shortages may escalate the prices of both JP and methane, whereas the price of hydrogen manufactured hydrolytically could be reduced from present levels. If in the future all three fuels are postulated to have equal costs per unit of energy, the DOC for hydrogen could be as much as 20 percent below that for JP on the reference 4000-nautical-mile mission. Longer ranges or lower noise requirements would improve the advantage of hydrogen.

Bioelectricity versus bioethanol from sugarcane bagasse: is it worth being flexible?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Sugarcane is the most efficient crop for production of (1G) ethanol. Additionally, sugarcane bagasse can be used to produce (2G) ethanol. However, the manufacture of 2G ethanol in large scale is not a consolidated process yet. Thus, a detailed economic analysis, based on consistent simulations of the process, is worthwhile. Moreover, both ethanol and electric energy markets have been extremely volatile in Brazil, which suggests that a flexible biorefinery, able to switch between 2G ethanol and electric energy production, could be an option to absorb fluctuations in relative prices. Simulations of three cases were run using the software EMSO: production of 1G ethanol + electric energy, of 1G + 2G ethanol and a flexible biorefinery. Bagasse for 2G ethanol was pretreated with a weak acid solution, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis, while 50% of sugarcane trash (mostly leaves) was used as surplus fuel. Results With maximum diversion of bagasse to 2G ethanol (74% of the total), an increase of 25.8% in ethanol production (reaching 115.2 L/tonne of sugarcane) was achieved. An increase of 21.1% in the current ethanol price would be enough to make all three biorefineries economically viable (11.5% for the 1G + 2G dedicated biorefinery). For 2012 prices, the flexible biorefinery presented a lower Internal Rate of Return (IRR) than the 1G + 2G dedicated biorefinery. The impact of electric energy prices (auction and spot market) and of enzyme costs on the IRR was not as significant as it would be expected. Conclusions For current market prices in Brazil, not even production of 1G bioethanol is economically feasible. However, the 1G + 2G dedicated biorefinery is closer to feasibility than the conventional 1G + electric energy industrial plant. Besides, the IRR of the 1G + 2G biorefinery is more sensitive with respect to the price of ethanol, and an increase of 11.5% in this value would be enough to achieve feasibility. The ability of the flexible biorefinery to take advantage of seasonal fluctuations does not make up for its higher investment cost, in the present scenario. PMID:24088415

What's in and what's out in branding? A novel articulation effect for brand names

PubMed Central

Topolinski, Sascha; Zürn, Michael; Schneider, Iris K.

2015-01-01

The present approach exploits the biomechanical connection between articulation and ingestion-related mouth movements to introduce a novel psychological principle of brand name design. We constructed brand names for diverse products with consonantal stricture spots either from the front to the rear of the mouth, thus inwards (e.g., BODIKA), or from the rear to the front, thus outwards (e.g., KODIBA). These muscle dynamics resemble the oral kinematics during either ingestion (inwards), which feels positive, or expectoration (outwards), which feels negative. In 7 experiments (total N = 1261), participants liked products with inward names more than products with outward names (Experiment 1), reported higher purchase intentions (Experiment 2), and higher willingness-to-pay (Experiments 3a–3c, 4, 5), with the price gain amounting to 4–13% of the average estimated product value. These effects occurred across English and German language, under silent reading, for both edible and non-edible products, and even in the presence of a much stronger price determinant, namely fair-trade production (Experiment 5). PMID:26029136

What should be done about policy on alcohol pricing and promotions? Australian experts' views of policy priorities: a qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Fogarty, Andrea S; Chapman, Simon

2013-06-25

Alcohol policy priorities in Australia have been set by the National Preventative Health Task Force, yet significant reform has not occurred. News media coverage of these priorities has not reported public health experts as in agreement and Government has not acted upon the legislative recommendations made. We investigate policy experts' views on alcohol policy priorities with a view to establishing levels of accord and providing suggestions for future advocates. We conducted semi-structured in depth interviews with alcohol policy experts and advocates around Australia. Open-ended questions examined participants' thoughts on existing policy recommendations, obvious policy priorities and specifically, the future of national reforms to price and promotions policies. All transcripts were analysed for major themes and points of agreement or disagreement. Twenty one alcohol policy experts agreed that pricing policies are a top national priority and most agreed that "something should be done" about alcohol advertising. Volumetric taxation and minimum pricing were regarded as the most important price policies, yet differences emerged in defining the exact form of a proposed volumetric tax. Important differences in perspective emerged regarding alcohol promotions, with lack of agreement about the preferred form regulations should take, where to start and who the policy should be directed at. Very few discussed online advertising and social networks. Despite existing policy collaborations, a clear 'cut through' message is yet to be endorsed by all alcohol control advocates. There is a need to articulate and promote in greater detail the specifics of policy reforms to minimum pricing, volumetric taxation and restrictions on alcohol advertising, particularly regarding sporting sponsorships and new media.

What should be done about policy on alcohol pricing and promotions? Australian experts’ views of policy priorities: a qualitative interview study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Alcohol policy priorities in Australia have been set by the National Preventative Health Task Force, yet significant reform has not occurred. News media coverage of these priorities has not reported public health experts as in agreement and Government has not acted upon the legislative recommendations made. We investigate policy experts’ views on alcohol policy priorities with a view to establishing levels of accord and providing suggestions for future advocates. Methods We conducted semi-structured in depth interviews with alcohol policy experts and advocates around Australia. Open-ended questions examined participants’ thoughts on existing policy recommendations, obvious policy priorities and specifically, the future of national reforms to price and promotions policies. All transcripts were analysed for major themes and points of agreement or disagreement. Results Twenty one alcohol policy experts agreed that pricing policies are a top national priority and most agreed that “something should be done” about alcohol advertising. Volumetric taxation and minimum pricing were regarded as the most important price policies, yet differences emerged in defining the exact form of a proposed volumetric tax. Important differences in perspective emerged regarding alcohol promotions, with lack of agreement about the preferred form regulations should take, where to start and who the policy should be directed at. Very few discussed online advertising and social networks. Conclusions Despite existing policy collaborations, a clear ‘cut through’ message is yet to be endorsed by all alcohol control advocates. There is a need to articulate and promote in greater detail the specifics of policy reforms to minimum pricing, volumetric taxation and restrictions on alcohol advertising, particularly regarding sporting sponsorships and new media. PMID:23800324

Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles

PubMed Central

Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P. Read; Camerer, Colin F.

2014-01-01

Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations—price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation. PMID:25002476

Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles.

PubMed

Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P Read; Camerer, Colin F

2014-07-22

Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations--price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation.

Auction-theoretic analyses of the first offshore wind energy auction in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreiss, J.; Ehrhart, K.-M.; Hanke, A.-K.

2017-11-01

The first offshore wind energy auction in Germany led to a striking result. The average award price was 0.44 ct/kWh and even more interesting, 3 out of 4 awarded projects had a strike price of 0.0 ct/kWh. That implies that those projects will only receive the actual wholesale market price for electricity as revenue. Although there has been a strong decline in costs of offshore wind projects, such a result is still surprising. We analyzed this result auction-theoretically and showed how the auction design and the market environment can explain part of the outcome. However, another aspect of the explanation is the high risk that the awarded bidders take regarding the future development of both the project costs and the wholesale market price.

Oil prices in a new light

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.

1994-05-01

For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factualmore » figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period.« less

Paying the price: a cross-sectional survey of Australian socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers' responses to hypothetical cigarette price rises.

PubMed

Guillaumier, Ashleigh; Bonevski, Billie; Paul, Christine; D'Este, Catherine; Doran, Christopher; Siahpush, Mohammad

2014-03-01

Increases in tobacco taxation can lead to reductions in tobacco consumption and prevalence of use across social groups. However, use of price-minimisation strategies to manage current and future tobacco use and the role of financial stress is less understood. This study aimed to measure the effect of cigarette price increases on price-minimisation strategy endorsement and financial stress among socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers. Community service organisation welfare recipients in NSW, Australia completed a touchscreen survey. Smoking history, financial stress, highest price to quit and responses to hypothetical cigarette price increases were assessed. Participants were 354 smokers (response rate = 79%). Most participants received income from a government pension (95%), earned

Nonlinear Pricing in Drug Benefits and Medication Use: The Case of Statin Compliance in Medicare Part D

PubMed Central

Jung, Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger; McBean, A Marshall

2014-01-01

Objective To examine how enrollees' statin compliance responds to expected prices in Medicare Part D, which features a nonlinear price schedule due to a coverage gap. Data Sources/Study Setting Prescription Drug Event data for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan enrollees in 2008 who did not receive a low-income subsidy. Study Design We analyze statin compliance prior to the coverage gap, where the “effective price” is higher than the actual copayment for drugs because consumers anticipate that more spending will make them more likely to reach the gap. We construct each enrollee's effective price as her expected price at the end of the year, which is the weighted average between pre-gap and in-gap copayments with the weight being the predicted probability of hitting the gap. Compliance is defined as at least 80 percent of days covered. Principal Findings Part D enrollees' pre-gap statin compliance decreases by 3.7–4.7 percentage points for a $10 increase in the effective price. Conclusion The presence of a coverage gap decreases statin compliance prior to the gap, suggesting that incorporating expected future prices is important to assess the full impact of cost sharing on drug compliance under nonlinear price schedules. PMID:24354765

Price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer: findings from a US pilot study.

PubMed

French, Michael Thomas; Browntaylor, Didra; Bluthenthal, Ricky Neville

2006-05-01

Our objective is to estimate the relative price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer (MLB), regular beer, hard liquor, and a combined group of all other alcoholic beverages. Three hundred and twenty-nine alcohol consumers (mostly male) in South-Central Los Angeles answered a series of questions pertaining to expected consumption responses to hypothetical price increases. We found that based on a 10% price increase, the mean price elasticity of demand (% change in quantity demanded / % change in price) was -0.79 for MLB drinkers, -1.14 for regular beer drinkers, -1.11 for hard liquor drinkers, and -1.69 for the combined group of all other drinkers. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the personal characteristics significantly related to being a MLB drinker were older age, not working, being homeless, and a daily drinker. Daily (or nearly daily) drinkers were more likely to be married, earning lower incomes, and hard liquor drinkers. This study is the first to investigate the price elasticity of demand for MLB drinkers and other heavy alcohol consumers in poor urban neighborhoods of the US. Future research can use the methods from this pilot study to more rigorously examine and compare the price sensitivity among heavy drinking groups.

Effects of regulated competition on key outcomes of care: cataract surgeries in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Heijink, Richard; Mosca, Ilaria; Westert, Gert

2013-11-01

Similar to several other countries, the Netherlands implemented market-oriented health care reforms in recent years. Previous studies raised questions on the effects of these reforms on key outcomes such as quality, costs, and prices. The empirical evidence is up to now mixed. This study looked at the variation in prices, volume, and quality of cataract surgeries since the introduction of price competition in 2006. We found no price convergence over time and constant price differences between hospitals. Quality indicators generally showed positive results in cataract care, though the quality and scope of the indicators was suboptimal at this stage. Furthermore, we found limited between-hospital variation in quality and there was no clear-cut relation between prices and quality. Volume of cataract care strongly increased in the period studied. These findings indicate that health insurers may not have been able to drive prices down, make trade-offs between price and quality, and selectively contract health care without usable quality information. Positive results coming out from the 2006 reform should not be taken for granted. Looking forward, future research on similar topics and with newer data should clarify the extent to which these findings can be generalized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-07-01

Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-01-01

Recent price spikes1,2 have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades3,4. However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors5,6, which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change. PMID:23243468

The effect of the implementation of low price medicine policy on medicine price in China: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Guan, Xiaodong; Yang, Mingchun; Man, Chunxia; Tian, Ye; Shi, Luwen

2018-04-30

In an effort to relieve the pressure of drug shortages, the Chinese government implemented Low-price Medicines (LPM) policy to raise the price cap in July 2014. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the implementation of this policy on drug price in China. Price data of 491 LPM, including 218 low-price chemical medicines (LPCM) and 273 low-price traditional Chinese medicines (LPTCM), were collected from 699 hospitals. We used interrupted time series design to identify the variation of monthly Laspeyres Indexes (LI) and Paasche Indexes (PI) for LPM, LPCM, and LPTCM. The result demonstrated that although LPM expenditures increased, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures fell from 3.6% to 3.2%. After the implementation of LPM policy, there was a significant increasing trend in LPM-PI, LPCM-PI, and LPTCM-PI. The trend in LPM-LI and LPCM-LI was found from descending to rising. However, for LPTCM, the trend in the LI remained to decrease after the policy implementation. Despite the LPM policy had an increasing impact on the LPM drug price, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures did not increase. More efforts are needed in the future to promote the rational drug use in China. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Medicine prices, availability, and affordability in the Shaanxi Province in China: implications for the future.

PubMed

Jiang, Minghuan; Zhou, Zhongliang; Wu, Lina; Shen, Qian; Lv, Bing; Wang, Xiao; Yang, Shimin; Fang, Yu

2015-02-01

In 2009, China implemented the National Essential Medicines System (NEMS) to improve access to high-quality low-cost essential medicines. To measure the prices, availability and affordability of medicines in China following the implementation of the NEMS. 120 public hospitals and 120 private pharmacies in ten cities in Shaanxi Province, Western China. The standardized methodology developed by the World Health Organization and Health Action International was used to collect data on prices and availability of 49 medicines. Median price ratio; availability as a percentage; cost of course of treatment in days' wages of the lowest-paid government workers. In the public hospitals, originator brands (OBs) were procured at 8.89 times the international reference price, more than seven times higher than the lowest-priced generics (LPGs). Patients paid 11.83 and 1.69 times the international reference prices for OBs and generics respectively. A similar result was observed in the private pharmacies. The mean availabilities of OBs and LPGs were 7.1 and 20.0 % in the public hospitals, and 12.6 and 29.2 % in the private pharmacies. Treatment with OBs is therefore largely unaffordable, but the affordability of the LPGs is generally good. High prices and low availability of survey medicines were observed. The affordability of generics, but not OBs, is reasonable. Effective measures should be taken to reduce medicine prices and improve availability and affordability in Shaanxi Province.

Oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets: Large-scale simulation and policy analysis using complementarity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helman, E. Udi

This dissertation conducts research into the large-scale simulation of oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets. The dissertation has two parts. Part I is an examination of the structure and properties of several spatial, or network, equilibrium models of oligopolistic electricity markets formulated as mixed linear complementarity problems (LCP). Part II is a large-scale application of such models to the electricity system that encompasses most of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, the Eastern Interconnection. Part I consists of Chapters 1 to 6. The models developed in this part continue research into mixed LCP models of oligopolistic electricity markets initiated by Hobbs [67] and subsequently developed by Metzler [87] and Metzler, Hobbs and Pang [88]. Hobbs' central contribution is a network market model with Cournot competition in generation and a price-taking spatial arbitrage firm that eliminates spatial price discrimination by the Cournot firms. In one variant, the solution to this model is shown to be equivalent to the "no arbitrage" condition in a "pool" market, in which a Regional Transmission Operator optimizes spot sales such that the congestion price between two locations is exactly equivalent to the difference in the energy prices at those locations (commonly known as locational marginal pricing). Extensions to this model are presented in Chapters 5 and 6. One of these is a market model with a profit-maximizing arbitrage firm. This model is structured as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC), but due to the linearity of its constraints, can be solved as a mixed LCP. Part II consists of Chapters 7 to 12. The core of these chapters is a large-scale simulation of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection applying one of the Cournot competition with arbitrage models. This is the first oligopolistic equilibrium market model to encompass the full Eastern Interconnection with a realistic network representation (using a DC load flow approximation). Chapter 9 shows the price results. In contrast to prior market power simulations of these markets, much greater variability in price-cost margins is found when using a realistic model of hourly conditions on such a large network. Chapter 10 shows that the conventional concentration indices (HHIs) are poorly correlated with PCMs. Finally, Chapter 11 proposes that the simulation models are applied to merger analysis and provides two large-scale merger examples. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Diatomite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crangle, R.D.

2010-01-01

Information on the diatomite industry in 2009 is presented. Specifically, details on diatomite production and prices, properties, its future supply, and natural and synthetic substitutes are provided.

War-gaming application for future space systems acquisition part 2: acquisition and bidding war-gaming modeling and simulation approaches for FFP and FPIF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Tien M.; Guillen, Andy T.

2017-05-01

This paper describes cooperative and non-cooperative static Bayesian game models with complete and incomplete information for the development of optimum acquisition strategies associated with the Program and Technical Baseline (PTB) solutions obtained from Part 1 of this paper [1]. The optimum acquisition strategies discussed focus on achieving "Affordability" by incorporating contractors' bidding strategies into the government acquisition strategies for acquiring future space systems. The paper discusses System Engineering (SE) frameworks, analytical and simulation approaches and modeling for developing the optimum acquisition strategies from both the government and contractor perspectives for Firm Fixed Price (FFP) and Fixed Price Incentive Firm (FPIF) contract types.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendell, D.

This talk addresses the impact that future price uncertainty and current low oil and gas prices have on the conduct and management of R&D in the upstream business. Uncertainty in future prices underscores the need to develop technology that will improve our ability to reduce technical uncertainties in investment decisions, to lower all costs and to operate in a flawless way. Low current prices result in a need to be more efficient and cost conscious in everything we do, including R&D. Since the price environment provides little tolerance for mistakes, we need the best possible definition of the hydrocarbon resourcesmore » that we find before committing to development. Furthermore, we must find and define the resource at the lowest possible cost, and develop it in an efficient way that is cost effective, safe and environmentally acceptable. The vital role of research includes improving tools for reconstructing basin histories, predicting hydrocarbon generation, migration and trapping, and improving the quality of seismic data and attribute analysis while reducing acquisition cost. Improved methods for interpreting the data and for integrating it into the evaluation and decision making process also facilitates success. We need to continually strive for the competitive advantage provided by leading edge research, while making maximum use of outsourcing and leveraging to get the most out of every research dollar spent. Systematic prioritization and highgrading of our research portfolio is particularly important in achieving this balance. Exxon understands the importance of R&D to the upstream business, and we are committed to managing our resources to provide the value added research needed to address today`s needs as well as those we know will be there down the road. Exxon has been a successful player in this industry for many decades and we believe that our future success is closely tied to our ability to continually generate key research breakthroughs in an efficient way.« less

Present and projected future mean radiant temperature for three European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorsson, Sofia; Rayner, David; Lindberg, Fredrik; Monteiro, Ana; Katzschner, Lutz; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Campe, Sabrina; Katzschner, Antje; Konarska, Janina; Onomura, Shiho; Velho, Sara; Holmer, Björn

2017-09-01

Present-day and projected future changes in mean radiant temperature, T mrt in one northern, one mid-, and one southern European city (represented by Gothenburg, Frankfurt, and Porto), are presented, and the concept of hot spots is adopted. Air temperature, T a , increased in all cities by 2100, but changes in solar radiation due to changes in cloudiness counterbalanced or exacerbated the effects on T mrt. The number of days with high T mrt in Gothenburg was relatively unchanged at the end of the century (+1 day), whereas it more than doubled in Frankfurt and tripled in Porto. The use of street trees to reduce daytime radiant heat load was analyzed using hot spots to identify where trees could be most beneficial. Hot spots, although varying in intensity and frequency, were generally confined to near sunlit southeast-southwest facing walls, in northeast corner of courtyards, and in open spaces in all three cities. By adding trees in these spaces, the radiant heat load can be reduced, especially in spaces with no or few trees. A set of design principles for reducing the radiant heat load is outlined based on these findings and existing literature.

Expert views on most suitable monetary incentives on food to stimulate healthy eating.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; de Vet, Emely; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C

2010-06-01

Pricing strategies are an important component in the marketing mix and may also be useful in stimulating healthier food choices. However, due to competing interests and feasibility problems, the introduction of pricing strategies is complicated. For successfully introducing food pricing strategies, it is essential to explore incentives that are not only promising but also realizable and being approved by different sectors. We aimed to assemble a list of pricing strategies by exploring expert views using the Delphi method. Subjects included experts from academia, industry, retail, agriculture, policymakers, consumers and non-governmental organizations. Data were collected in three rounds. In round one, experts designed promising pricing strategies. Based on a time-budget model incorporating Sleep, Leisure, Occupation, Transportation and Home-based activities, these strategies were in the subsequent rounds judged on several criteria. Results were analysed using median and interquartile deviations scores. We found fair consensus levels among experts and a varied list of promising pricing strategies. The panel agreed on the potential success of offering small presents, providing price-cuts on healthy foods and discounting healthier foods more frequently. Also, it was found that experts gave higher rates to pricing strategies for which the implementation responsibilities could be placed elsewhere. The resulted list of promising monetary incentives is an essential first step for the future design of pricing strategies. Following this study, it is important to determine how to make solid agreements on responsibility and implementation issues. Also, consumer perceptions regarding the proposed pricing strategies should be studied.

The Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy Scripts: Prescription Drug Pricing.

PubMed

Sumida, Wesley K; Taniguchi, Ronald; Juarez, Deborah Taira

2016-01-01

Prescription drugs have reduced morbidity and mortality and improved the quality of life of millions of Americans. Yet, concerns over drug price increases loom. Drug spending has risen relatively slowly over the past decade because many of the most popular brand-name medicines lost patent protection. In the near future, there will be fewer low-cost generics coming into the market to offset the rising prices of brand-name drugs. Drug expenditures are influenced by both volume and price. This article focuses on how drug prices are set in the United States and current trends. Drug prices are determined through an extremely complicated set of interactions between pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care organizations, hospitals, chain stores, and consumers. The process differs depending on the type of drug and place of delivery. Rising drug prices have come under increased scrutiny due to increased cost inflation and because many price increases come as a result of mergers and acquisitions of generic drug companies or changes in ownership of brand name drug manufacturers. Other countries have reigned in drug prices by negotiating with or regulating pharmaceutical manufacturers. The best long-term solution to rising drug prices is yet to be determined but the United States will continue to debate this issue and the discussions will get more heated if drug expenditures continue to rise at a rapid rate (ie, increasing 13% in 2014 from the previous year).

Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Mexico: past, present, and future.

PubMed

Álvarez-Hernández, Gerardo; Roldán, Jesús Felipe González; Milan, Néstor Saúl Hernández; Lash, R Ryan; Behravesh, Casey Barton; Paddock, Christopher D

2017-06-01

Rocky Mountain spotted fever, a tick-borne zoonosis caused by Rickettsia rickettsii, is among the most lethal of all infectious diseases in the Americas. In Mexico, the disease was first described during the early 1940s by scientists who carefully documented specific environmental determinants responsible for devastating outbreaks in several communities in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora, Durango, and Coahuila. These investigators also described the pivotal roles of domesticated dogs and Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (brown dog ticks) as drivers of epidemic levels of Rocky Mountain spotted fever. After several decades of quiescence, the disease re-emerged in Sonora and Baja California during the early 21st century, driven by the same environmental circumstances that perpetuated outbreaks in Mexico during the 1940s. This Review explores the history of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Mexico, current epidemiology, and the multiple clinical, economic, and social challenges that must be considered in the control and prevention of this life-threatening illness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic rate of discount and estimating cost benefit of viral immunisation programmes.

PubMed

West, R R

1999-01-01

Many individual and societal decisions over purchase (or investment) involve consideration of timing, in that either the price may be paid now and the benefit enjoyed some time in the future or the converse the benefit enjoyed now and the price paid later. Since most individuals generally prefer the present to the future, economic theory has conventionally discounted future costs or benefits to estimate 'net present values'. The rationale for this is principally based on future uncertainty. In recent years, economists have turned their attention to valuing health as an economic 'good'. Observations of individual behaviour would imply that individuals discount future health, as other potential benefits, mostly because there is some uncertainty about their futures. Although economic theory is strongly predicated on the 'sovereignty of the individual', it does not necessarily follow that society discounts the future as do individuals, since for society the future is not so uncertain. Society's endorsement of many public health and preventive medicine objectives, which seek health gains in the future (rather than the present), imply that society's rate of discount may be appreciably lower than that of individuals. In immunisation, arguably one of the most effective of preventive measures, there is the additional benefit to others attributable to herd immunity. This paper argues that the future health gains for society arising from immunisation should not be underestimated by application of inappropriate discounting.

A Multi-year Multi-passband CCD Photometric Study of the W UMa Binary EQ Tauri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alton, K. B.

2009-12-01

A revised ephemeris and updated orbital period for EQ Tau have been determined from newly acquired (2007-2009) CCD-derived photometric data. A Roche-type model based on the Wilson-Devinney code produced simultaneous theoretical fits of light curve data in three passbands by invoking cold spots on the primary component. These new model fits, along with similar light curve data for EQ Tau collected during the previous six seasons (2000-2006), provided a rare opportunity to follow the seasonal appearance of star spots on a W UMa binary system over nine consecutive years. Fixed values for q, ?1,2, T1, T2, and i based upon the mean of eleven separately determined model fits produced for this system are hereafter proposed for future light curve modeling of EQ Tau. With the exception of the 2001 season all other light curves produced since then required a spotted solution to address the flux asymmetry exhibited by this binary system at Max I and Max II. At least one cold spot on the primary appears in seven out of twelve light curves for EQ Tau produced over the last nine years, whereas in six instances two cold spots on the primary star were invoked to improve the model fit. Solutions using a hot spot were less common and involved positioning a single spot on the primary constituent during the 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2005-2006 seasons.

Gender differences in alcohol demand: a systematic review of the role of prices and taxes.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-10-01

Gender differences in drinking patterns are potentially important for public policies, especially policies that rely extensively on higher alcohol taxes and prices. This paper presents a systematic review of alcohol prices and gender differences in drinking and heavy drinking by adults and young adults. Starting with a database of 578 studies of alcohol demand and other outcomes, 15 studies are reviewed of adult drinking including discussion of samples, measurement issues, econometric models, special variables, and key empirical results. A similar discussion is presented for eight studies of drinking by young adults, ages 18-26 years. Four conclusions are obtained from the review. First, adult men have less elastic demands compared with women. Second, there is little or no price response by heavy-drinking adults, regardless of gender. Third, although the sample is small, price might be important for drinking participation by young adults. Fourth, the results strongly suggest that heavy drinking by young adults, regardless of gender, is not easily dissuaded by higher prices. Policy implications, primary study limitations, and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enabling Technologies for Unified Life-Cycle Engineering of Structural Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-22

representations for entities in the ULCE system for unambiguous, reliable, and efficient retrieval, manipulation, and transfer of data. Develop a rapid analysis...approaches to these functions. It is reasonable to assume that program budgets for future systems will be more restrictive and that fixed- price contracting...enemy threats, economics, and politics. The requirements are voluminous and may stipulate firm fixed- price proposals with detailed schedules. At this

Weapon Acquisition Program Outcomes and Efforts to Reform DOD’s Acquisition Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-09

portfolio’s total estimated acquisition cost. 11. The equity prices of contractors delivering the ten costliest programs performed well relative to broad...cost growth. • In a constrained funding environment, unforeseen cost increases limit investment choices. The equity prices of the contractors ...remain profitable well into the future • Five publicly-traded defense contractors are developing and delivering the ten largest DOD programs in the 2015

PRIVACYGRID: Supporting Anonymous Location Queries in Mobile Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

continued price reduction of location tracking de- vices, location - based services (LBSs) are widely recognized as an important feature of the future computing... location - based services can operate completely anonymously, such as “when I pass a gas station, alert me with the unit price of the gas”. Others can...Anonymous Usage of Location - Based Services Through Spatial and Tempo- ral Cloaking. In Proceedings of the International Con- ference on Mobile

Rating hydrogen as a potential aviation fuel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witcofski, R. D.

1980-01-01

The viability of liquid hydrogen, liquid methane, and synthetic aviation kerosene as future alternate fuels for transport aircraft is analyzed, and the results of a comparative assessment are given in terms of cost, energy resource utilization, areas of fuel production, transmission airport facilities, and ultimate use in the aircraft. Important safety (fires) and some environmental aspects (CO2 balance) are also described. It is concluded that fuel price estimates indicate the price of synthetic aviation kerosene (synjet) would be approximately half of the price calculated for liquid hydrogen and somewhat less than that of liquid methane, with synjet from oil shale reported to be the least expensive.

Modeling Addictive Consumption as an Infectious Disease*

PubMed Central

Alamar, Benjamin; Glantz, Stanton A.

2011-01-01

The dominant model of addictive consumption in economics is the theory of rational addiction. The addict in this model chooses how much they are going to consume based upon their level of addiction (past consumption), the current benefits and all future costs. Several empirical studies of cigarette sales and price data have found a correlation between future prices and consumption and current consumption. These studies have argued that the correlation validates the rational addiction model and invalidates any model in which future consumption is not considered. An alternative to the rational addiction model is one in which addiction spreads through a population as if it were an infectious disease, as supported by the large body of empirical research of addictive behaviors. In this model an individual's probability of becoming addicted to a substance is linked to the behavior of their parents, friends and society. In the infectious disease model current consumption is based only on the level of addiction and current costs. Price and consumption data from a simulation of the infectious disease model showed a qualitative match to the results of the rational addiction model. The infectious disease model can explain all of the theoretical results of the rational addiction model with the addition of explaining initial consumption of the addictive good. PMID:21339848

Targeting the affordability of cigarettes: a new benchmark for taxation policy in low-income and-middle-income countries.

PubMed

Blecher, Evan

2010-08-01

To investigate the appropriateness of tax incidence (the percentage of the retail price occupied by taxes) benchmarking in low-income and-middle-income countries (LMICs) with rapidly growing economies and to explore the viability of an alternative tax policy rule based on the affordability of cigarettes. The paper outlines criticisms of tax incidence benchmarking, particularly in the context of LMICs. It then considers an affordability-based benchmark using relative income price (RIP) as a measure of affordability. The RIP measures the percentage of annual per capita GDP required to purchase 100 packs of cigarettes. Using South Africa as a case study of an LMIC, future consumption is simulated using both tax incidence benchmarks and affordability benchmarks. I show that a tax incidence benchmark is not an optimal policy tool in South Africa and that an affordability benchmark could be a more effective means of reducing tobacco consumption in the future. Although a tax incidence benchmark was successful in increasing prices and reducing tobacco consumption in South Africa in the past, this approach has drawbacks, particularly in the context of a rapidly growing LMIC economy. An affordability benchmark represents an appropriate alternative that would be more effective in reducing future cigarette consumption.

Partial differential equation methods for stochastic dynamic optimization: an application to wind power generation with energy storage.

PubMed

Johnson, Paul; Howell, Sydney; Duck, Peter

2017-08-13

A mixed financial/physical partial differential equation (PDE) can optimize the joint earnings of a single wind power generator (WPG) and a generic energy storage device (ESD). Physically, the PDE includes constraints on the ESD's capacity, efficiency and maximum speeds of charge and discharge. There is a mean-reverting daily stochastic cycle for WPG power output. Physically, energy can only be produced or delivered at finite rates. All suppliers must commit hourly to a finite rate of delivery C , which is a continuous control variable that is changed hourly. Financially, we assume heavy 'system balancing' penalties in continuous time, for deviations of output rate from the commitment C Also, the electricity spot price follows a mean-reverting stochastic cycle with a strong evening peak, when system balancing penalties also peak. Hence the economic goal of the WPG plus ESD, at each decision point, is to maximize expected net present value (NPV) of all earnings (arbitrage) minus the NPV of all expected system balancing penalties, along all financially/physically feasible future paths through state space. Given the capital costs for the various combinations of the physical parameters, the design and operating rules for a WPG plus ESD in a finite market may be jointly optimizable.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Oregon Spotted Frog (Rana pretiosa) movement and demography at Dilman Meadow: Implications for future monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgren, Nathan D.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Bowerman, Jay; Adams, Michael J.

2007-01-01

From 2001 to 2005, we studied the demography and seasonal movement of Oregon spotted frogs (Rana pretiosa) translocated into created ponds in Dilman Meadow in central Oregon. Our objectives were to inform future monitoring and management at the site, and to elucidate poorly known aspects of the species’ population ecology. Movement rates revealed complementary use of sites seasonally, with one small spring being preferred during winter that was rarely used during the rest of the year. Growth rates were significantly higher in ponds that were not used for breeding, and larger size resulted in significantly higher survival. When variation in survival by size was accounted for there was little variation among ponds in survival. Seasonal estimates of survival were lowest for males during the breeding/post-breeding redistribution period, suggesting a high cost of breeding for males. Overwintering survival for both genders was relatively high. Our study supports others in suggesting Oregon spotted frogs are specific in their overwintering habitat requirements, and that predator-free springs may be of particular value. We suggest that any future monitoring include measures of the rate of pond succession. Demographic monitoring should include metrics of both frog reproduction and survival: counts of egg masses at all ponds during spring, and capture-recapture study of survival in mid and late summer when capture rates are highest. Additional study of early life stages would be particularly useful to broaden our understanding of the species’ ecology. Specifically, adding intensive capture and marking effort after larval transformation in fall would enable a full understanding of the annual life cycle. Complete study of the annual life cycle is needed to isolate the life stages and mechanisms through which Oregon spotted frogs are affected by stressors such as nonnative predators. Dilman Meadow, which lacks many hypothesized stressors, is an important reference for isolating the life stages most responsive to management elsewhere in the species’ range.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day’s closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance. PMID:28708865

Estimating the future agriculture freight transportation network needs due to climate change using remote sensing and regional climate models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

A reoccurring challenge with increasing fuel prices is optimization of multi- and inter-modal freight transport to move products most efficiently. Projections for the future of agriculture in the United States (U.S.) combined with regional climate mo...

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Mid-Term Prospects for Natural Gas Supply

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

This service report describes the recent behavior of natural gas markets with respect to natural gas prices, their potential future behavior, the potential future supply contribution of liquefied natural gas and increased access to federally restricted resources, and the need for improved natural gas data.

Esther Dyson's Vision of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Runyan, Andy

1999-01-01

Discusses a vision of the future based on Esther Dyson's views of the proliferation of the Internet. Topics include the Internet as a communication medium; electronic commerce; the role of education, including the role of teachers; intellectual property rights; and friction freedom in a new digital economy relating to pricing. (LRW)

Energy resources - cornucopia or empty barrel?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, P.J.

1998-01-01

Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of resources and reserves have historically created considerable misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of energy production assume that there is a finite supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the resource. Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price. The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract. By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety of available energy sources and that competition among them leads to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next few decades.Over the last 25 years, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe that resources are rapidly depleting and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because longterm trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. This paper examines historic trends and clarify the foundations on which one may build one's predictions.

Examining the production costs of antiretroviral drugs.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Eloan; Vasan, Ashwin; Kim, Jim Yong; Lee, Evan; Guimier, Jean Marc; Perriens, Joseph

2006-08-22

To present direct manufacturing costs and price calculations of individual antiretroviral drugs, enabling those responsible for their procurement to have a better understanding of the cost structure of their production, and to indicate the prices at which these antiretroviral drugs could be offered in developing country markets. Direct manufacturing costs and factory prices for selected first and second-line antiretroviral drugs were calculated based on cost structure data from a state-owned company in Brazil. Prices for the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) were taken from a recent survey by the World Health Organization (WHO). The calculated prices for antiretroviral drugs are compared with quoted prices offered by privately-owned, for-profit manufacturers. The API represents the largest component of direct manufacturing costs (55-99%), while other inputs, such as salaries, equipment costs, and scale of production, have a minimal impact. The calculated prices for most of the antiretroviral drugs studied fall within the lower quartile of the range of quoted prices in developing country markets. The exceptions are those drugs, primarily for second-line therapy, for which the API is either under patent, in short supply, or in limited use in developing countries (e.g. abacavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, saquinavir). The availability of data on the cost of antiretroviral drug production and calculation of factory prices under a sustainable business model provide benchmarks that bulk purchasers of antiretroviral drugs could use to negotiate lower prices. While truly significant price decreases for antiretroviral drugs will depend largely on the future evolution of API prices, the present study demonstrates that for several antiretroviral drugs price reduction is currently possible. Whether or not these reductions materialize will depend on the magnitude of indirect cost and profit added by each supplier over the direct production costs. The ability to achieve price reductions in line with production costs will have critical implications for sustainable treatment for HIV/AIDS in the developing world.

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

African White Gold: Elephant Ivory and Rhino Horn Trafficking - US Intervention and Interdiction

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

wildlife trafficking and poaching is the impact to international security, regional stability, and to local governance. The rapid rise in the price of... poaching presents significant second and third order affects that impact their security, their rule of law, national sovereignty, and their future...national security. Research Question Both the recent spike in elephant and rhino poaching , and the rapid rise in the price of ivory creates an

77 FR 76459 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; North Pacific Groundfish and Halibut...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-28

... the GOA (Eastern GOA, Central GOA, and Western GOA) and by subarea in the BSAI (BS subarea and AI... prices in future years, if that data becomes available and display of a standard ex-vessel price meets... Petersburg $6.43 SEAK 6.02 Cordova 6.22 EGOAxSE 6.02 Homer 6.11 KEN 6.32 Kodiak 5.98 CGOA 6.02 WGOA 6.02 AI 6...

Price-related promotions for tobacco products on Twitter.

PubMed

Jo, Catherine L; Kornfield, Rachel; Kim, Yoonsang; Emery, Sherry; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-07-01

This cross-sectional study examined price-related promotions for tobacco products on Twitter. Through the Twitter Firehose, we obtained access to all public tweets posted between 6 December 2012 and 20 June 2013 that contained a keyword suggesting a tobacco-related product or behaviour (eg, cigarette, vaping) in addition to a keyword suggesting a price promotion (eg, coupon, discount). From this data set of 155 249 tweets, we constructed a stratified sampling frame based on the price-related keywords and randomly sampled 5000 tweets (3.2%). Tweets were coded for product type and promotion type. Non-English tweets and tweets unrelated to a tobacco or cessation price promotion were excluded, leaving an analytic sample of 2847 tweets. The majority of tweets (97.0%) mentioned tobacco products while 3% mentioned tobacco cessation products. E-cigarettes were the most frequently mentioned product (90.1%), followed by cigarettes (5.4%). The most common type of price promotion mentioned across all products was a discount. About a third of all e-cigarette-related tweets included a discount code. Banned or restricted price promotions comprised about 3% of cigarette-related tweets. This study demonstrates that the vast majority of tweets offering price promotions focus on e-cigarettes. Future studies should examine the extent to which Twitter users, particularly youth, notice or engage with these price promotion tweets. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy Scripts

PubMed Central

Sumida, Wesley K; Taniguchi, Ronald; Juarez, Deborah Taira

2016-01-01

Prescription drugs have reduced morbidity and mortality and improved the quality of life of millions of Americans. Yet, concerns over drug price increases loom. Drug spending has risen relatively slowly over the past decade because many of the most popular brand-name medicines lost patent protection. In the near future, there will be fewer low-cost generics coming into the market to offset the rising prices of brand-name drugs. Drug expenditures are influenced by both volume and price. This article focuses on how drug prices are set in the United States and current trends. Drug prices are determined through an extremely complicated set of interactions between pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care organizations, hospitals, chain stores, and consumers. The process differs depending on the type of drug and place of delivery. Rising drug prices have come under increased scrutiny due to increased cost inflation and because many price increases come as a result of mergers and acquisitions of generic drug companies or changes in ownership of brand name drug manufacturers. Other countries have reigned in drug prices by negotiating with or regulating pharmaceutical manufacturers. The best long-term solution to rising drug prices is yet to be determined but the United States will continue to debate this issue and the discussions will get more heated if drug expenditures continue to rise at a rapid rate (ie, increasing 13% in 2014 from the previous year). PMID:26870605

Transsexual emergence: gender variant identities in Thailand.

PubMed

Ocha, Witchayanee

2012-01-01

This paper aims to contribute to understanding of emergent gender/sexual identities in Thailand. Thailand has become a popular destination for sex change operations by providing the medical technology for a complete transformation, with relatively few procedures and satisfactory results at a reasonable price. Data were gathered from 24 transsexual male-to-female sex workers working in Pattaya and Patpong, well-known sex-tourism hot spots in Thailand. Findings suggest the emergence of new understandings of gender/sexual identity. Sex-tourism/sex work significantly illuminates the process through which gender is contested and re-imagined. The coming together of cultures in Thailand's sex industry, coupled with advances in medical technology, has resulted in the emergence of new concepts of gender.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Reputation, Princing and the E-Science Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandasivam, Arun; Neumann, Dirk

One of the fundamental aspects for an efficient Grid usage is the optimization of resource allocation among the participants. However, this has not yet materialized. Each user is a self-interested participant trying to maximize his utility whereas the utility is not only determined by the fastest completion time, but on the prices as well. Future revenues are influenced by users' reputation. Reputation mechanisms help to build trust between loosely coupled and geographically distributed participants. Providers need an incentive to reduce selfish cancellation of jobs and privilege own jobs. In this chapter we present first an offline scheduling mechanism with a fixed price. Jobs are collected by a broker and scheduled to machines. The goal of the broker is to balance the load and to maximize the revenue in the network. Consumers can submit their jobs according to their preferences, but taking the incentives of the broker into account. This mechanism does not consider reputation. In a second step a reputation-based pricing mechanism for a simple, but fair pricing of resources is analyzed. In e-Science researchers do not appreciate idiosyncratic pricing strategies and policies. Their interest lies in doing research in an efficient manner. Consequently, in our mechanism the price is tightly coupled to the reputation of a site to guarantee fairness of pricing and facilitate price determination. Furthermore, the price is not the only parameter as completion time plays an important role, when deadlines have to be met. We provide a flexible utility and decision model for every participant and analyze the outcome of our reputation-based pricing system via simulation.

Examining the Influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women.

PubMed

McGuirt, Jared T; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W; Keyserling, Thomas C; Ammerman, Alice S

2014-01-01

To examine the influence of farmers' market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets, among low-income women. Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers' markets given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Eastern North Carolina. A total of 37 low-income women of childbearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Willingness to shop at a farmers' market. Fisher's exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers' markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based on a positive deviance framework. Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers' market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than a quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Future farmers' market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. Copyright © 2014 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women

PubMed Central

McGuirt, Jared T.; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B.; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W.; Keyserling, Thomas C.; Ammerman, Alice S.

2013-01-01

Objective: To examine the influence of farmers’ market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets, among low-income women. Design: Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers’ market given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Setting: Eastern North Carolina. Participants: Thirty seven low-income women of child-bearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Phenomenon of Interest: Willingness to shop at a farmers’ market. Analysis: Fisher’s exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers’ markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based upon a positive deviance framework. Results: Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers’ market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than the quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Conclusions and Implications: Future farmers’ market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. PMID:24201077

Female labour supply and nursing home prices.

PubMed

Bauer, Thomas K; Stroka, Magdalena A

2013-09-01

Long term care in Germany is provided in nursing homes, by professional ambulatory services and by the patient's relatives at home, with the latter being predominantly provided by women. Given an increasing labour market participation of women, long term care at home by female relatives might become less frequent in the future which in turn may result in rising demand for and hence rising prices for long term care services. This paper builds upon the existing literature on the determinants of nursing home prices and investigates whether the labour market participation and the education level of women are correlated with the prices of nursing homes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using panel data approaches in this field of research. Based on a full sample of nursing homes in Germany for the years 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007, our empirical results suggest that a high share of full-time employed women aged 50-65 at the district level is not associated with higher prices of nursing homes. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence for a positive correlation of prices with the local average of women's educational level and a negative correlation with part-time employment indicating that price levels are lower in regions with higher shares of part-time employed women.

PCV2 on the spot-A new method for the detection of single porcine circovirus type 2 secreting cells.

PubMed

Fossum, Caroline; Hjertner, Bernt; Lövgren, Tanja; Fuxler, Lisbeth; Charerntantanakul, Wasin; Wallgren, Per

2014-02-01

A porcine circovirus type 2 SPOT (PCV2-SPOT) assay was established to enumerate virus-secreting lymphocytes obtained from naturally infected pigs. The assay is based on the same principle as general ELISPOT assays but instead of detecting cytokine or immunoglobulin secretion, PCV2 particles are immobilized and detected as filter spots. The method was used to evaluate the influence of various cell activators on the PCV2 secretion in vitro and was also applied to study the PCV2 secretion by lymphocytes obtained from pigs in healthy herds and in a herd afflicted by postweaning multisystemic wasting disease (PMWS). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) obtained from a pig with severe PMWS produced PCV2-SPOTs spontaneously whereas PBMCs obtained from pigs infected subclinically only generated PCV2-SPOTs upon in vitro stimulation. The PCV2 secretion potential was related to the PCV2 DNA content in the PBMCs as determined by two PCV2 real-time PCR assays, developed to differentiate between Swedish PCV2 genogroups 1 (PCV2a) and 3 (PCV2b). Besides the current application these qPCRs could simplify future epidemiological studies and allow genogroup detection/quantitation in dual infection experiments and similar studies. The developed PCV2-SPOT assay offers a semi-quantitative approach to evaluate the potential of PCV2-infected porcine cells to release PCV2 viral particles as well as a system to evaluate the ability of different cell types or compounds to affect PCV2 replication and secretion. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Dark Vortex on Neptune

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Michael H.; Tollefson, Joshua; Hsu, Andrew I.; de Pater, Imke; Simon, Amy A.; Hueso, Ricardo; Sánchez-Lavega, Agustín; Sromovsky, Lawrence; Fry, Patrick; Luszcz-Cook, Statia; Hammel, Heidi; Delcroix, Marc; de Kleer, Katherine; Orton, Glenn S.; Baranec, Christoph

2018-03-01

An outburst of cloud activity on Neptune in 2015 led to speculation about whether the clouds were convective in nature, a wave phenomenon, or bright companions to an unseen dark vortex (similar to the Great Dark Spot studied in detail by Voyager 2). The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) finally answered this question by discovering a new dark vortex at 45 degrees south planetographic latitude, named SDS-2015 for “southern dark spot discovered in 2015.” SDS-2015 is only the fifth dark vortex ever seen on Neptune. In this paper, we report on imaging of SDS-2015 using HST’s Wide Field Camera 3 across four epochs: 2015 September, 2016 May, 2016 October, and 2017 October. We find that the size of SDS-2015 did not exceed 20 degrees of longitude, more than a factor of two smaller than the Voyager dark spots, but only slightly smaller than previous northern-hemisphere dark spots. A slow (1.7–2.5 deg/year) poleward drift was observed for the vortex. Properties of SDS-2015 and its surroundings suggest that the meridional wind shear may be twice as strong at the deep level of the vortex as it is at the level of cloud-tracked winds. Over the 2015–2017 period, the dark spot’s contrast weakened from about -7 % to about -3 % , while companion clouds shifted from offset to centered, a similar evolution to some historical dark spots. The properties and evolution of SDS-2015 highlight the diversity of Neptune’s dark spots and the need for faster cadence dark spot observations in the future.

Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

2000-03-01

Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. Methods We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Results Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. Conclusion This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating. PMID:20482857

Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C; Steenhuis, Ingrid Hm

2010-05-19

Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating.

Geolocation applications of the Gonets LEO messaging satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasov, Vladimir N.; Ashjaee, Javad M.

Geostationary satellites carry a majority of the international telecommunications traffic not carried by transoceanic cable. However, because the radio path links to and from geostationary satellites total at least 70,000 km and because of inherent on-board spacecraft power limitations, earth stations used in conjunction with geostationary satellites are usually large and expensive. This limits their installation to areas with a well-developed industrial and economic infrastructure. This reality helps perpetuate a chicken egg dilemma for the developing countries and isolated regions. Economic integration with the developed world requires being 'networked'. But for many developing entities, even the initial price of entry exceeds their modest resources. Exclusion from the global information highways virtually assures retardation of economic growth for developing nations, remote and isolated areas. Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) earth stations are often thought of as a solution for networking developing regions. But economic considerations often forecloses this option. If VSAT size and cost is to be minimized, powerful spot beams from the satellite need to be focused on relatively small regions. This is not often feasible because of the high cost of the satellite itself. To dedicate a high power spot beam to a small region is usually not economically feasible.

Nanofocusing beyond the near-field diffraction limit via plasmonic Fano resonance.

PubMed

Song, Maowen; Wang, Changtao; Zhao, Zeyu; Pu, Mingbo; Liu, Ling; Zhang, Wei; Yu, Honglin; Luo, Xiangang

2016-01-21

The past decade has witnessed a great deal of optical systems designed for exceeding the Abbe's diffraction limit. Unfortunately, a deep subwavelength spot is obtained at the price of extremely short focal length, which is indeed a near-field diffraction limit that could rarely go beyond in the nanofocusing device. One method to mitigate such a problem is to set up a rapid oscillatory electromagnetic field that converges at the prescribed focus. However, abrupt modulation of phase and amplitude within a small fraction of a wavelength seems to be the main obstacle in the visible regime, aggravated by loss and plasmonic features that come into function. In this paper, we propose a periodically repeated ring-disk complementary structure to break the near-field diffraction limit via plasmonic Fano resonance, originating from the interference between the complex hybrid plasmon resonance and the continuum of propagating waves through the silver film. This plasmonic Fano resonance introduces a π phase jump in the adjacent channels and amplitude modulation to achieve radiationless electromagnetic interference. As a result, deep subwavelength spots as small as 0.0045λ(2) at 36 nm above the silver film have been numerically demonstrated. This plate holds promise for nanolithography, subdiffraction imaging and microscopy.

Geolocation applications of the Gonets LEO messaging satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlasov, Vladimir N.; Ashjaee, Javad M.

1993-01-01

Geostationary satellites carry a majority of the international telecommunications traffic not carried by transoceanic cable. However, because the radio path links to and from geostationary satellites total at least 70,000 km and because of inherent on-board spacecraft power limitations, earth stations used in conjunction with geostationary satellites are usually large and expensive. This limits their installation to areas with a well-developed industrial and economic infrastructure. This reality helps perpetuate a chicken egg dilemma for the developing countries and isolated regions. Economic integration with the developed world requires being 'networked'. But for many developing entities, even the initial price of entry exceeds their modest resources. Exclusion from the global information highways virtually assures retardation of economic growth for developing nations, remote and isolated areas. Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) earth stations are often thought of as a solution for networking developing regions. But economic considerations often forecloses this option. If VSAT size and cost is to be minimized, powerful spot beams from the satellite need to be focused on relatively small regions. This is not often feasible because of the high cost of the satellite itself. To dedicate a high power spot beam to a small region is usually not economically feasible.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piette, Mary Ann

California needs new, responsive, demand-side energy technologies to ensure that periods of tight electricity supply on the grid don't turn into power outages. Led by Berkeley Lab's Mary Ann Piette, the California Energy Commission (through its Public Interest Energy Research Program) has established a Demand Response Research Center that addresses two motivations for adopting demand responsiveness: reducing average electricity prices and preventing future electricity crises. The research seeks to understand factors that influence "what works" in Demand Response. Piette's team is investigating the two types of demand response, load response and price response, that may influence and reduce the usemore » of peak electric power through automated controls, peak pricing, advanced communications, and other strategies.« less

Saving Power at Peak Hours (LBNL Science at the Theater)

ScienceCinema

Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2018-05-23

California needs new, responsive, demand-side energy technologies to ensure that periods of tight electricity supply on the grid don't turn into power outages. Led by Berkeley Lab's Mary Ann Piette, the California Energy Commission (through its Public Interest Energy Research Program) has established a Demand Response Research Center that addresses two motivations for adopting demand responsiveness: reducing average electricity prices and preventing future electricity crises. The research seeks to understand factors that influence "what works" in Demand Response. Piette's team is investigating the two types of demand response, load response and price response, that may influence and reduce the use of peak electric power through automated controls, peak pricing, advanced communications, and other strategies.

AC HTS Transmission Cable for Integration into the Future EHV Grid of the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuijderduin, R.; Chevtchenko, O.; Smit, J. J.; Aanhaanen, G.; Melnik, I.; Geschiere, A.

Due to increasing power demand, the electricity grid of the Netherlands is changing. The future grid must be capable to transmit all the connected power. Power generation will be more decentralized like for instance wind parks connected to the grid. Furthermore, future large scale production units are expected to be installed near coastal regions. This creates some potential grid issues, such as: large power amounts to be transmitted to consumers from west to east and grid stability. High temperature superconductors (HTS) can help solving these grid problems. Advantages to integrate HTS components at Extra High Voltage (EHV) and High Voltage (HV) levels are numerous: more power with less losses and less emissions, intrinsic fault current limiting capability, better control of power flow, reduced footprint, etc. Today's main obstacle is the relatively high price of HTS. Nevertheless, as the price goes down, initial market penetration for several HTS components is expected by year 2015 (e.g.: cables, fault current limiters). In this paper we present a design of intrinsically compensated EHV HTS cable for future grid integration. Discussed are the parameters of such cable providing an optimal power transmission in the future network.

Cable Communications Revolution. Future: Broadband Communications, Local Origination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Robert W.

The revolution in two-way broadband communications envisioned for the future includes remote access to libraries, interactive educational programing, shopping at home, personal and property security, and many other services limited only by man's imagination and his ability to deliver the service at a price the consumer is willing and able to pay.…

Stocks in the Future: An Examination of Participant Outcomes in 2014-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durham, Rachel E.

2016-01-01

This report features research on Stocks in the Future (SIF), a financial literacy program for middle-grades students. The goals of SIF are to serve underrepresented, socioeconomically disadvantaged students in schools where more than 50% are eligible for free/reduced-price meals, achieve stronger student attendance and greater attachment to…

The United States and Cuba: Past, Present and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-04-01

Amendment in 1934, the naval base at Guantanamo remains controversial and undoubtedly surface as a transition issue for a post -Castro Cuba. 28 The...uprisings led by groups attempting to overthrow the government accusing the incumbent leaders of corruption and ruthlessness.33 The first US post ...86% and 90% of total exports.15 In the post -Second World War period, sugar prices fell again and although the price rose to 3.5 cents per pond in

Engineering and Design: Civil Works Cost Engineering

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-31

labor cost requirements are broken into tasks of work. Each task is usually performd by a labor crew. Crews may vary in size and mix of skills. The...requested in advance of the expected purchase date. Suppliers are reluctant to guarantee future pricw and ofien will only quote current prices. It may be...unit cost is the overhead cost for the item. g. Sources for Pricing. The Cost Engineer must rely on judgement, historical data, and current labor market

Leverage effect and its causality in the Korea composite stock price index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chang-Yong

2012-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the leverage effect and its causality in the time series of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from November of 1997 to September of 2010. The leverage effect, which can be quantitatively expressed as a negative correlation between past return and future volatility, is measured by using the cross-correlation coefficient of different time lags between the two time series of the return and the volatility. We find that past return and future volatility are negatively correlated and that the cross correlation is moderate and decays over 60 trading days. We also carry out a partial correlation analysis in order to confirm that the negative correlation between past return and future volatility is neither an artifact nor influenced by the traded volume. To determine the causality of the leverage effect within the decay time, we additionally estimate the cross correlation between past volatility and future return. With the estimate, we perform a statistical hypothesis test to demonstrate that the causal relation is in favor of the return influencing the volatility rather than the other way around.

The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, O.; Hawkes, A.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.

2017-08-01

Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh-1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh-1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175-510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027-2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

Analysis of Spanish generic medicines retail market: recommendations to enhance long-term sustainability.

PubMed

Dylst, Pieter; Vulto, Arnold G; Simoens, Steven

2014-06-01

The use of generic medicines in Spain is traditionally low compared to other European countries, despite efforts of the Spanish government in the past. This paper provides a perspective on the Spanish generic medicines retail market and how the current policy environment may affect the long-term sustainability. The Spanish government's focus on prices of generic medicines (e.g., mandatory price cuts, reference price set at the lowest level) have made them amongst the lowest in Europe. In our opinion, this combination of continuous pressure on prices and limited diffusion of generic medicines may undermine the long-term sustainability of the Spanish generic medicines retail market. The unique experience in Spain shows the impact of demand-side policies on the use of generic medicines. Because a sustainable generic medicines retail market is important to maintain future competition in the off-patent medicines market, this perspective paper rounds off with recommendations to increase its sustainability.

Effects of spot parameters in pencil beam scanning treatment planning.

PubMed

Kraan, Aafke Christine; Depauw, Nicolas; Clasie, Ben; Giunta, Marina; Madden, Tom; Kooy, Hanne M

2018-01-01

Spot size σ (in air at isocenter), interspot spacing d, and spot charge q influence dose delivery efficiency and plan quality in Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy (IMPT) treatment planning. The choice and range of parameters varies among different manufacturers. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the influence of the spot parameters on dose quality and delivery in IMPT treatment plans, to show their interdependence, and to make practitioners aware of the spot parameter values for a certain facility. Our study could help as a guideline to make the trade-off between treatment quality and time in existing PBS centers and in future systems. We created plans for seven patients and a phantom, with different tumor sites and volumes, and compared the effect of small-, medium-, and large-spot widths (σ = 2.5, 5, and 10 mm) and interspot distances (1σ, 1.5σ, and 1.75σ) on dose, spot charge, and treatment time. Moreover, we quantified how postplanning charge threshold cuts affect plan quality and the total number of spots to deliver, for different spot widths and interspot distances. We show the effect of a minimum charge (or MU) cutoff value for a given proton delivery system. Spot size had a strong influence on dose: larger spots resulted in more protons delivered outside the target region. We observed dose differences of 2-13 Gy (RBE) between 2.5 mm and 10 mm spots, where the amount of extra dose was due to dose penumbra around the target region. Interspot distance had little influence on dose quality for our patient group. Both parameters strongly influence spot charge in the plans and thus the possible impact of postplanning charge threshold cuts. If such charge thresholds are not included in the treatment planning system (TPS), it is important that the practitioner validates that a given combination of lower charge threshold, interspot spacing, and spot size does not result in a plan degradation. Low average spot charge occurs for small spots, small interspot distances, many beam directions, and low fractional dose values. The choice of spot parameters values is a trade-off between accelerator and beam line design, plan quality, and treatment efficiency. We recommend the use of small spot sizes for better organ-at-risk sparing and lateral interspot distances of 1.5σ to avoid long treatment times. We note that plan quality is influenced by the charge cutoff. Our results show that the charge cutoff can be sufficiently large (i.e., 10 6 protons) to accommodate limitations on beam delivery systems. It is, therefore, not necessary per se to include the charge cutoff in the treatment planning optimization such that Pareto navigation (e.g., as practiced at our institution) is not excluded and optimal plans can be obtained without, perhaps, a bias from the charge cutoff. We recommend that the impact of a minimum charge cut impact is carefully verified for the spot sizes and spot distances applied or that it is accommodated in the TPS. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

2016-04-01

The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

Impact of residential PV adoption on Retail Electricity Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, DWH; Adlakha, S; Low, SH

2013-11-01

The price of electricity supplied from home rooftop photo voltaic (PV) solar cells has fallen below the retail price of grid electricity in some areas. A number of residential households have an economic incentive to install rooftop PV systems and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. A significant portion of the costs incurred by utility companies are fixed costs which must be recovered even as consumption falls. Electricity rates must increase in order for utility companies to recover fixed costs from shrinking sales bases. Increasing rates will, in turn, result in even more economic incentives for customers tomore » adopt rooftop PV. In this paper, we model this feedback between PV adoption and electricity rates and study its impact on future PV penetration and net-metering costs. We find that the most important parameter that determines whether this feedback has an effect is the fraction of customers who adopt PV in any year based solely on the money saved by doing so in that year, independent of the uncertainties of future years. These uncertainties include possible changes in rate structures such as the introduction of connection charges, the possibility of PV prices dropping significantly in the future, possible changes in tax incentives, and confidence in the reliability and maintainability of PV. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

[Blood sampling using "dried blood spot": a clinical biology revolution underway?].

PubMed

Hirtz, Christophe; Lehmann, Sylvain

2015-01-01

Blood testing using the dried blood spot (DBS) is used since the 1960s in clinical analysis, mainly within the framework of the neonatal screening (Guthrie test). Since then numerous analytes such as nucleic acids, small molecules or lipids, were successfully measured on the DBS. While this pre-analytical method represents an interesting alternative to classic blood sampling, its use in routine is still limited. We review here the different clinical applications of the blood sampling on DBS and estimate its future place, supported by the new methods of analysis as the LC-MS mass spectrometry.