The role of emotions in UV protection intentions and behaviors.

PubMed

Mahler, Heike I M

2014-01-01

Two studies examined the role of emotions, relative to cognitions, in predicting sun protection intentions and practices. In Study 1, 106 females were assessed for baseline sun protection, ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure-related cognitions (perceived susceptibility to skin damage, self-efficacy for regular sunscreen use, perceived costs of sun protection use, perceived rewards of tanning), anticipated negative mood following future risky UV behavior, and future sun protection intentions. Self-reported sun protection behavior was then assessed in the same participants five weeks later. The results of Study 1 demonstrated that the extent to which participants' expected to experience negative feelings if they engaged in future risky UV behavior predicted their intentions to sun protect and their subsequent sun protection behaviors independent of their UV radiation exposure-related cognitions. In Study 2, in addition to the assessments collected in Study 1, participants were exposed to an appearance-based intervention that included visual images of their existing skin damage and were then assessed for their emotional reactions to the intervention. The results replicated those of Study 1 and, in addition, showed that negative emotional reactions to the intervention predicted future sun protection intentions and self-reported behaviors at follow-up, independent of the various cognitive factors that are central to prominent models of health behavior. These studies provide preliminary support for the development of expanded health behavior models that incorporate anticipated and experienced emotions.

Evaluating hospital design from an operations management perspective.

PubMed

Vos, Leti; Groothuis, Siebren; van Merode, Godefridus G

2007-12-01

This paper describes an evaluation method for the assessment of hospital building design from the viewpoint of operations management to assure that the building design supports the efficient and effective operating of care processes now and in the future. The different steps of the method are illustrated by a case study. In the case study an experimental design is applied to assess the effect of used logistical concepts, patient mix and technologies. The study shows that the evaluation method provides a valuable tool for the assessment of both functionality and the ability to meet future developments in operational control of a building design.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Component processes underlying future thinking.

PubMed

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Ortoleva, Claudia; Jumentier, Sabrina; Van der Linden, Martial

2010-09-01

This study sought to investigate the component processes underlying the ability to imagine future events, using an individual-differences approach. Participants completed several tasks assessing different aspects of future thinking (i.e., fluency, specificity, amount of episodic details, phenomenology) and were also assessed with tasks and questionnaires measuring various component processes that have been hypothesized to support future thinking (i.e., executive processes, visual-spatial processing, relational memory processing, self-consciousness, and time perspective). The main results showed that executive processes were correlated with various measures of future thinking, whereas visual-spatial processing abilities and time perspective were specifically related to the number of sensory descriptions reported when specific future events were imagined. Furthermore, individual differences in self-consciousness predicted the subjective feeling of experiencing the imagined future events. These results suggest that future thinking involves a collection of processes that are related to different facets of future-event representation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NA

By studying the rocks and geologic features of an area, experts can assess whether it is vulnerable to future volcanic eruptions. Scientists have performed extensive studies at and near Yucca Mountain to determine whether future volcanoes could possibly affect the proposed repository for nuclear waste.

Hydraulic and Condition Assessment of Existing Sewerage Network: A Case Study of an Educational Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sourabh, Nishant; Timbadiya, P. V.

2018-04-01

The hydraulic simulation of the existing sewerage network provides various information about critical points to assess the deteriorating condition and help in rehabilitation of existing network and future expansion. In the present study, hydraulic and condition assessment of existing network of educational Institute (i.e. Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology-Surat, Gujarat, India), having an area of 100 ha and ground levels in range of 5.0-9.0 m above mean sea level, has been carried out using sewage flow simulation for existing and future scenarios analysis using SewerGEMS v8i. The paper describes the features of 4.79 km long sewerage network of institute followed by network model simulation for aforesaid scenarios and recommendations on improvement of the existing network for future use. The total sewer loads for present and future scenarios are 1.67 million litres per day (MLD) and 3.62 MLD, considering the peak factor of 3 on the basis of population. The hydraulic simulation of the existing scenario indicated depth by diameter (d/D) ratio in the range of 0.02-0.48 and velocity range of 0.08-0.53 m/s for existing network for present scenario. For the future scenario, the existing network is needed to be modified and it was found that total of 11 conduits (length: 464.8 m) should be replaced to the next higher diameter available, i.e., 350 mm for utilization of existing network for future scenario. The present study provides the methodology for condition assessment of existing network and its utilization as per guidelines provided by Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, 2013. The methodology presented in this paper can be used by municipal/public health engineer for the assessment of existing sewerage network for its serviceability and improvement in future.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

Reverters from PD-MCI to cognitively intact are at risk for future cognitive impairment: Analysis of the PPMI cohort.

PubMed

Jones, Jacob D; Kuhn, Taylor P; Szymkowicz, Sarah M

2018-02-01

Past studies have shown that a large portion of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will revert to a cognitively intact (CI) status in the future. Aging studies have shown that individuals who revert from MCI to CI are at increased risk for reconverting to MCI or dementia in the future. The current study examined if individuals who revert from PD-mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) to CI will be at increased risk for future PD-MCI and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD). The study utilized data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The sample included 364 newly diagnosed PD participants who were followed annually for up to 4 years. Based on the first and second assessments, we identified individuals who were CI at each assessment (CI-Stable) and individuals who were PD-MCI at baseline but then reverted to CI (Reversion). Analyses examined if participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk, relative to the CI-Stable group, for cognitive impairment at future assessments. Participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk for future cognitive impairment (PD-MCI or PDD) at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th annual follow-up, relative to the CI-Stable group. The Reversion group continued to be at increased risk for future cognitive impairment when adjusting for age, gender, education, depressive symptoms, and motor severity. A large proportion of individuals with PD-MCI will not show evidence of cognitive impairment within a year. However, these "reverters" continue to be at risk for future development of cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Focus on the future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanner, Martha S.

1988-01-01

An assessment is made of what was learned from Halley and recommendations are made for future directions for infrared studies of comets and supporting lab investigations. The following issues are addressed: (1) What steps can be taken to achieve consistent interpretation of Halley infrared data; (2) How successful has the Halley Watch been for infrared studies; (3) What supporting lab research is needed; (4) What are the key infrared observations needed for future comets; and (5) How do current and future NASA programs relate to comet studies.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Multi-component assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an evaluation of the ADO and DOSE indices and the global obstructive lung disease categories in international primary care data sets

PubMed Central

Jones, Rupert C; Price, David; Chavannes, Niels H; Lee, Amanda J; Hyland, Michael E; Ställberg, Björn; Lisspers, Karin; Sundh, Josefin; van der Molen, Thys; Tsiligianni, Ioanna

2016-01-01

Suitable tools for assessing the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) include multi-component indices and the global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) categories. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation (DOSE) and the age, dyspnoea, obstruction (ADO) indices and GOLD categories as measures of current health status and future outcomes in COPD patients. This was an observational cohort study comprising 5,114 primary care COPD patients across three databases from UK, Sweden and Holland. The associations of DOSE and ADO indices with (i) health status using the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ) and St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and COPD Assessment test (CAT) and with (ii) current and future exacerbations, admissions and mortality were assessed in GOLD categories and DOSE and ADO indices. DOSE and ADO indices were significant predictors of future exacerbations: incident rate ratio was 1.52 (95% confidence intervals 1.46–1.57) for DOSE, 1.16 (1.12–1.20) for ADO index and 1.50 (1.33–1.68) and 1.23 (1.10–1.39), respectively, for hospitalisations. Negative binomial regression showed that the DOSE index was a better predictor of future admissions than were its component items. The hazard ratios for mortality were generally higher for ADO index groups than for DOSE index groups. The GOLD categories produced widely differing assessments for future exacerbation risk or for hospitalisation depending on the methods used to calculate them. None of the assessment systems were excellent at predicting future risk in COPD; the DOSE index appears better than the ADO index for predicting many outcomes, but not mortality. The GOLD categories predict future risk inconsistently. The DOSE index and the GOLD categories using exacerbation frequency may be used to identify those at high risk for exacerbations and admissions. PMID:27053297

Multi-component assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an evaluation of the ADO and DOSE indices and the global obstructive lung disease categories in international primary care data sets.

PubMed

Jones, Rupert C; Price, David; Chavannes, Niels H; Lee, Amanda J; Hyland, Michael E; Ställberg, Björn; Lisspers, Karin; Sundh, Josefin; van der Molen, Thys; Tsiligianni, Ioanna

2016-04-07

Suitable tools for assessing the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) include multi-component indices and the global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) categories. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation (DOSE) and the age, dyspnoea, obstruction (ADO) indices and GOLD categories as measures of current health status and future outcomes in COPD patients. This was an observational cohort study comprising 5,114 primary care COPD patients across three databases from UK, Sweden and Holland. The associations of DOSE and ADO indices with (i) health status using the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ) and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and COPD Assessment test (CAT) and with (ii) current and future exacerbations, admissions and mortality were assessed in GOLD categories and DOSE and ADO indices. DOSE and ADO indices were significant predictors of future exacerbations: incident rate ratio was 1.52 (95% confidence intervals 1.46-1.57) for DOSE, 1.16 (1.12-1.20) for ADO index and 1.50 (1.33-1.68) and 1.23 (1.10-1.39), respectively, for hospitalisations. Negative binomial regression showed that the DOSE index was a better predictor of future admissions than were its component items. The hazard ratios for mortality were generally higher for ADO index groups than for DOSE index groups. The GOLD categories produced widely differing assessments for future exacerbation risk or for hospitalisation depending on the methods used to calculate them. None of the assessment systems were excellent at predicting future risk in COPD; the DOSE index appears better than the ADO index for predicting many outcomes, but not mortality. The GOLD categories predict future risk inconsistently. The DOSE index and the GOLD categories using exacerbation frequency may be used to identify those at high risk for exacerbations and admissions.

An Index-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity for Sustainable Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. E.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, K. S.; Hyun, S.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

Global precipitation pattern is changing due to climate change, causing drought and water scarcity all around the world. As water is mandatory to all lives, water availability is becoming essential and so is sustainable water resource management. Especially in agriculture, water resource management is crucial, as it is directly connected to the production. However, many studies about water scarcity show limits by focusing on current situation and overlooking future possibilities of water availability. Also, most of the studies about water scarcity use single index or model. To overcome these shortcomings, we assessed agricultural water scarcity considering future climate, using water scarcity indices. We assessed present and future water scarcity using several indices and compared the results derived from each index. The study area of this research is South Korea, as drought is a prominent problem in agricultural sector. Precipitation in Korea is concentrated in summer, causing severe drought in spring and fall. Rainfall density in Korea is increasing with climate change, and sustainable water resource management is inevitable. In this research, we used irrigational demand along with current and future crop production of 2030 and 2050 as water demand. We projected the future (2020-2100) runoff of dams located in Korea as water demand under future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The result showed severe water scarcity in Southern area of Korea both in the present and the future. It was due to increase of water demand and decrease of precipitation. It indicates that the water scarcity gets more intense in the future, and emphasizes the importance of water resource management of the southern part. This research will be valuable in establishing water resource management in agricultural sector for sustainable water availability in the future.

Differences in Agency? How Adolescents from 18 Countries Perceive and Cope with Their Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seiffge-Krenke, Inge; Persike, Malte; Chau, Cecilia; Hendry, Leo B.; Kloepp, Marion; Terzini-Hollar, Michelle; Tam, Vicky; Naranjo, Carmen Rodriguez; Herrera, Dora; Menna, Palma; Rohail, Iffat; Veisson, Marika; Hoareau, Elsa; Luwe, Merja; Loncaric, Darko; Han, Hyeyoun; Regusch, Ludmilla

2012-01-01

This study investigated how N = 5,126 adolescents (mean age of 15 years) from 18 countries perceive and cope with future- and school-related stress. The adolescents completed the Problem Questionnaire (PQ), which assesses stress, and the Coping Across Situations Questionnaire (CASQ), which assesses three coping styles (reflection/support-seeking,…

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps.

Research Designs and Methods in Self-Assessment Studies: A Content Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pastore, Serafina

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on self-assessment studies in the higher education field. In the assessment for learning perspective, self-assessment is related to reflection, metacognition, and self-regulation: all these aspects are considered as fundamental prerequisites for students' future professional development. Despite the recognition of…

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk of heat stress; when coupled with assessments of additional measures (e.g. water and fodder availability) can inform on alternatives that provide satisfactory performance under a wide range of states (e.g. optimal cattle breed, supplemental feed, increased water access).

The Observed Longitudinal Relationship between Future Orientation and Substance Use Among a Cohort of Youth with Serious Criminal Offenses.

PubMed

Brooks, Merrian; Miller, Elizabeth; Abebe, Kaleab; Mulvey, Edward

2018-03-06

Future orientation (FO), an essential construct in youth development, encompassing goals, expectations for life, and ability to plan for the future. This study uses a multidimensional measure of future orientation to assess the relationship between change in future orientation and change in substance use over time. Data were from the Pathways to Desistence study. Justice involved youth (n = 1,354), ages 14 to 18 at time of recruitment, completed interviews every six months for three years. Multiple measures were chosen a priori as elements of future orientation. After evaluating the psychometrics of a new measure for future orientation, we ran mixed effects cross-lagged panel models to assess the relationship between changes in future orientation and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, hard drugs, and alcohol). There was a significant bidirectional relationship between future orientation and all substance use outcomes. Adjusted models accounted for different sites, sex, age, ethnicity, parental education, and proportion of time spent in a facility. In adjusted models, higher levels of future orientation resulted in smaller increases in substance use at future time points. Future orientation and substance use influence each other in this sample of adolescent offenders. Treating substance use disorders is also likely to increase future orientation, promoting positive youth development more generally. This study expands our understanding of the longitudinal relationship between changes in future orientation and changes in levels of substance use in a sample of justice involved youth with high levels of substance use, a group of considerable clinical and policy interest.

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time. PMID:26863212

Amnesia and future thinking: Exploring the role of memory in the quantity and quality of episodic future thoughts.

PubMed

Cole, Scott N; Morrison, Catriona M; Barak, Ohr; Pauly-Takacs, Katalin; Conway, Martin A

2016-06-01

To examine the impact of memory accessibility on episodic future thinking. Single-case study of neurological patient HCM and an age-matched comparison group of neurologically Healthy Controls. We administered a full battery of tests assessing general intelligence, memory, and executive functioning. To assess autobiographical memory, the Autobiographical Memory Interview (Kopelman, Wilson, & Baddeley, 1990. The Autobiographical Memory Interview. Bury St. Edmunds, UK: Thames Valley Test Company) was administered. The Past Episodic and Future Episodic sections of Dalla Barba's Confabulation Battery (Dalla Barba, 1993, Cogn. Neuropsychol., 1, 1) and a specifically tailored Mental Time Travel Questionnaire were administered to assess future thinking in HCM and age-matched controls. HCM presented with a deficit in forming new memories (anterograde amnesia) and recalling events from before the onset of neurological impairment (retrograde amnesia). HCM's autobiographical memory impairments are characterized by a paucity of memories from Recent Life. In comparison with controls, two features of his future thoughts are apparent: Reduced episodic future thinking and outdated content of his episodic future thoughts. This article suggests neuropsychologists should look beyond popular conceptualizations of the past-future relation in amnesia via focussing on reduced future thinking. Investigating both the quantity and quality of future thoughts produced by amnesic patients may lead to developments in understanding the complex nature of future thinking disorders resulting from memory impairments. We highlight the clinical importance of examining the content of future thoughts in amnesic patients, rather than only its quantitative reduction. We propose an explanation of how quantitative and qualitative aspects of future thinking could be affected by amnesia. This could provide a useful approach to understand clinical cases of impaired prospection. Systematic group investigations are required to fully examine our hypothesis. Although the current study utilized typical future thinking measures, these may be limited and we highlight the need to develop clinically relevant measures of prospection. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Associations of Affective Responses During Free-Living Physical Activity and Future Physical Activity Levels: an Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

PubMed

Liao, Yue; Chou, Chih-Ping; Huh, Jimi; Leventhal, Adam; Dunton, Genevieve

2017-08-01

Affective response during physical activity may influence motivation to perform future physical activity behavior. However, affective response during physical activity is often assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. The current study used ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity performed by adults, and determined whether these affective responses predict future moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels after 6 and 12 months. At baseline, electronic EMA surveys were randomly prompted across 4 days asking about current activities and affective states (e.g., happy, stressed, energetic, tired). Affective response during physical activity was operationalized as the level of positive or negative affect reported when concurrent physical activity (e.g., exercise or sports) was also reported. Data were available for 82 adults. Future levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using accelerometers, worn for seven consecutive days at 6 and 12 months after the baseline assessment. Feeling more energetic during physical activity was associated with performing more minutes of daily MVPA after both 6 and 12 months. Feeling less negative affect during physical activity was associated with engaging in more daily MVPA minutes after 12 months only. This study demonstrated how EMA can be used to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity. Results found that feelings more energetic and less negative during physical activity were associated with more future physical activity, suggesting that positive emotional benefits may reinforce behavior.

Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

PubMed

Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

2016-08-01

The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

Assessment of United States and Japanese Athletic Trainers' Satisfaction with Current Ascension Pathways and Interest in Future Transnational Certification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Presuto, Dax A.

2013-01-01

Background: The purpose of this cross-system and cross-cultural study was to investigate the current athletic training systems in the US and Japan, to assess US and Japanese athletic trainers' satisfaction with current athletic training ascension pathways in their respective country and to determine their interest in future transnational…

A Blueprint for Human Resource Development in the Third Decade of the Ontario Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology: Executive Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giroux, Roy F.

In 1987, a review of Ontario's community college system was initiated to assess the system's present human resource development practices and plan future directions. A field-based study was conducted to identify and assess current human resource development efforts, identify areas for improvement, and suggest possible future directions. Through…

Assessing the Needs of Adults for Continuing Education: A Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Donald E., Jr.

1980-01-01

Reviews the needs assessment studies described in this journal issue. Concludes that (1) lessons from completed needs assessments can help continuing education practitioners plan and conduct future studies, and (2) a rational, need-reduction, decision-making approach can improve continuing education programs. (CT)

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Sandor, Debra; Wiser, Ryan

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible andmore » that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.« less

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Intervention studies to foster resilience - A systematic review and proposal for a resilience framework in future intervention studies.

PubMed

Chmitorz, A; Kunzler, A; Helmreich, I; Tüscher, O; Kalisch, R; Kubiak, T; Wessa, M; Lieb, K

2018-02-01

Psychological resilience refers to the phenomenon that many people are able to adapt to the challenges of life and maintain mental health despite exposure to adversity. This has stimulated research on training programs to foster psychological resilience. We evaluated concepts, methods and designs of 43 randomized controlled trials published between 1979 and 2014 which assessed the efficacy of such training programs and propose standards for future intervention research based on recent developments in the field. We found that concepts, methods and designs in current resilience intervention studies are of limited use to properly assess efficacy of interventions to foster resilience. Major problems are the use of definitions of resilience as trait or a composite of resilience factors, the use of unsuited assessment instruments, and inappropriate study designs. To overcome these challenges, we propose 1) an outcome-oriented definition of resilience, 2) an outcome-oriented assessment of resilience as change in mental health in relation to stressor load, and 3) methodological standards for suitable study designs of future intervention studies. Our proposals may contribute to an improved quality of resilience intervention studies and may stimulate further progress in this growing research field. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the intra-annual uncertainties in climate change assessment over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is an inevitable feature of climate change impact assessments. Understanding and quantifying different sources of uncertainty is of high importance, which can help modeling agencies improve the current models and scenarios. In this study, we have assessed the future changes in three climate variables (i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US. To conduct the study, 10 statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs from two downscaling methods (i.e. BCSD and MACA) were utilized at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for the historical period of 1970-2000 and future period of 2010-2099. For the future projections, two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Furthermore, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to develop a probabilistic future projection for each climate variable. Results indicate superiority of BMA simulations compared to individual models. Increasing temperature and precipitation are projected at annual timescale. However, the changes are not uniform among different seasons. Model uncertainty shows to be the major source of uncertainty, while downscaling uncertainty significantly contributes to the total uncertainty, especially in summer.

The Aims and Objectives of the Monitoring the Future Study and Progress toward Fulfilling Them as of 2001. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 52.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Bachman, Jerald G.

Monitoring the Future is an ongoing program of research intended to assess the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth. This publication, from the occasional paper series, describes a study that monitors drug use and potential explanatory factors among American secondary school students, college students, and young adults.…

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

Structural dynamics technology research in NASA: Perspective on future needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The perspective of a NASA ad hoc study group on future research needs in structural dynamics within the aerospace industry is presented. The common aspects of the design process across the industry are identified and the role of structural dynamics is established through a discussion of various design considerations having their basis in structural dynamics. The specific structural dynamics issues involved are identified and assessed as to their current technological status and trends. Projections of future requirements based on this assessment are made and areas of research to meet them are identified.

Is Clinical Assessment of Addiction Severity of Individuals with Substance Use Disorder, Using the Addiction Severity Index, A Predictor of Future Inpatient Mental Health Hospitalization? A Nine-Year Registry Study.

PubMed

Padyab, Mojgan; Armelius, Bengt-Åke; Armelius, Kerstin; Nyström, Siv; Blom, Björn; Grönlund, Ann-Sofie; Lundgren, Lena

2018-04-23

In Sweden, the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) is the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's recommended substance use disorder assessment tool and used routinely for patient intakes. Our study of 213 individuals assessed for substance use disorder with the ASI used nine years of the National Patient Register and examined whether clinical social workers' assessments of addiction severity at baseline were associated with later hospitalizations for mental health disorder (MHD). ASI composite scores and interviewer severity rating were used to measure clients' problems in seven areas (mental health, family and social relationships, employment, alcohol, drug use, health, and legal) at baseline. A stepwise regression method was used to assess the relative importance of ASI composite scores, MHD hospitalization two years prior to baseline, age, and gender for MHD hospitalization seven years post-baseline. Almost two-thirds of the individuals (63%) were hospitalized at least once for MHD in the seven years post-baseline. At the multivariable level, MHD hospitalization prior to baseline was the strongest predictor of future MHD hospitalization, followed by ASI composite scores for drug use, employment, mental health and, last, male gender. A key finding is that higher ASI composite scores for drug use and mental health are predictors of future need for MHD treatment. Future studies will replicate this effort with a national population of individuals with substance use disorder.

Economics of ion propulsion for large space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masek, T. D.; Ward, J. W.; Rawlin, V. K.

1978-01-01

This study of advanced electrostatic ion thrusters for space propulsion was initiated to determine the suitability of the baseline 30-cm thruster for future missions and to identify other thruster concepts that would better satisfy mission requirements. The general scope of the study was to review mission requirements, select thruster designs to meet these requirements, assess the associated thruster technology requirements, and recommend short- and long-term technology directions that would support future thruster needs. Preliminary design concepts for several advanced thrusters were developed to assess the potential practical difficulties of a new design. This study produced useful general methodologies for assessing both planetary and earth orbit missions. For planetary missions, the assessment is in terms of payload performance as a function of propulsion system technology level. For earth orbit missions, the assessment is made on the basis of cost (cost sensitivity to propulsion system technology level).

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

PubMed Central

Lind, Sophie E.; Bowler, Dermot M.; Raber, Jacob

2014-01-01

This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation), and which we hypothesized may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years) were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection), theory of mind (ToM), relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the “memory island” task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. ToM was assessed using the “animations” task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings), patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not ToM or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to the number of repetitive behaviors. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviors showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed. PMID:25538661

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

PubMed

Lind, Sophie E; Bowler, Dermot M; Raber, Jacob

2014-01-01

This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation), and which we hypothesized may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years) were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection), theory of mind (ToM), relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the "memory island" task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. ToM was assessed using the "animations" task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings), patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not ToM or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to the number of repetitive behaviors. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviors showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.

[Benefit assessment of operative interventions from the perspective of surgical research].

PubMed

Hüttner, F J; Ulrich, A; Mihaljevic, A L; Probst, P; Rossion, I; Diener, Markus K

2015-03-01

The benefit assessment of surgical procedures serves as the basis for the concept of evidence-based surgery. However, especially in the field of surgery, many interventions are lacking assessment in high-quality clinical trials. Therefore, a well-structured benefit assessment of surgical interventions in the future is imperative. Considering the different perspectives, e.g. of the patients, surgeons, industry or health care investors, the implications of the benefits and risks of a procedure can differ significantly. Researchers have to abide by different regulations, depending on the type of intervention being evaluated in a surgical trial. Furthermore, the benefit assessment of surgical procedures poses specific challenges, from the choice of a relevant endpoint to issues concerning the standardization of the interventions and the impact of learning curves. The IDEAL concept, which was established by a group of international experts in 2009, serves as a framework for the future development and assessment of innovations in the field of surgery. For example, the SDGC (Study Center of the German Society of Surgery) and CHIR-Net (Surgical Studies Network) indicate that such collaborations of clinicians and methodologists can lead to the creation of a qualified structure for the effective benefit assessment of surgical procedures. In the future, the aforementioned evidence gaps must be eliminated and innovations evaluated efficiently by the work of such networks.

Get Real: Effects of Repeated Simulation and Emotion on the Perceived Plausibility of Future Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szpunar, Karl K.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2013-01-01

People frequently imagine specific interpersonal experiences that might occur in their futures. The present study used a novel experimental paradigm to examine the influence of repeated simulation of future interpersonal experiences on subjective assessments of plausibility for positive, negative, and neutral events. The results demonstrate that…

Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

2017-01-01

This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-05

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Assessment of the application of advanced technologies to subsonic CTOL transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graef, J. D.; Sallee, G. P.; Verges, J. T.

1974-01-01

Design studies of the application of advanced technologies to future transport aircraft were conducted. These studies were reviewed from the perspective of an air carrier. A fundamental study of the elements of airplane operating cost was performed, and the advanced technologies were ranked in order of potential profit impact. Recommendations for future study areas are given.

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

PubMed

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

The Development and Coherence of Future-Oriented Behaviors during the Preschool Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atance, Cristina M.; Jackson, Laura K.

2009-01-01

Although previous research has identified a number of interesting aspects of future thinking in adults, little is known about the developmental trajectory and coherence of future-oriented behaviors during early childhood. The primary goal of this study was to explore these issues by administering a battery of tasks assessing different aspects of…

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-12-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Mission applications for advanced photovoltaic solar arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; West, John L.; Chave, Robert G.; Mcgee, David P.; Yen, Albert S.

1990-01-01

The suitability of the Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) for future space missions was examined by considering the impact on the spacecraft system in general. The lightweight flexible blanket array system was compared to rigid arrays and a radio-isotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) static power source for a wide range of assumed future earth orbiting and interplanetary mission applications. The study approach was to establish assessment criteria and a rating scheme, identify a reference mission set, perform the power system assessment for each mission, and develop conclusions and recommendations to guide future APSA technology development. The authors discuss the three selected power sources, the assessment criteria and rating definitions, and the reference missions. They present the assessment results in a convenient tabular format. It is concluded that the three power sources examined, APSA, conventional solar arrays, and RTGs, can be considered to complement each other. Each power technology has its own range of preferred applications.

Airframe Noise Studies: Review and Future Direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rackl, Robert G.; Miller, Gregory; Guo, Yueping; Yamamoto, Kingo

2005-01-01

This report contains the following information: 1) a review of airframe noise research performed under NASA's Advanced Subsonic Transport (AST) program up to the year 2000, 2) a comparison of the year 1992 airframe noise predictions with those using a year 2000 baseline, 3) an assessment of various airframe noise reduction concepts as applied to the year 2000 baseline predictions, and 4) prioritized recommendations for future airframe noise reduction work. NASA's Aircraft Noise Prediction Program was the software used for all noise predictions and assessments. For future work, the recommendations for the immediate future focus on the development of design tools sensitive to airframe noise treatment effects and on improving the basic understanding of noise generation by the landing gear as well as on its reduction.

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Examining South Korea's Elementary Physical Education Performance Assessment Using Assessment Literacy Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Yongnam

2017-01-01

This study examines the issues pertaining to South Korea's elementary physical education (PE) performance assessment, using an assessment literacy (Hay & Penney, 2013) perspective to propose future directions. Eight elementary teachers currently teaching PE were selected as participants. Data were collected through semi-structured in-depth…

A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

Study of the Application of Separation Control by Unsteady Excitation to Civil Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McLean, J. D.; Crouch, J. D.; Stoner, R. C.; Sakurai, S.; Seidel, G. E.; Feifel, W. M.; Rush, H. M.

1999-01-01

This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential benefits of applying unsteady separation control to transport aircraft. Estimates are given for some of the costs associated with a specific application to high-lift systems. High-leverage areas for future research were identified during the course of the study. The study was conducted in three phases. Phase 1 consisted of a coarse screening of potential applications within the aerodynamics discipline. Potential benefits were identified and in some cases quantified in a preliminary way. Phase 2 concentrated on the application to the wing high-lift system, deemed to have the greatest potential benefit for commercial transports. A team of experts, including other disciplines (i.e. hydraulic, mechanical, and electrical systems, structures, configurations, manufacturing, and finance), assessed the feasibility, benefits, and costs to arrive at estimates of net benefits. In both phases of the study, areas of concern and areas for future research were identified. In phase 3 of this study, the high-leverage areas for future research were prioritized as a guide for future efforts aimed at the application of active flow control to commercial transport aircraft.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Momentary effects of exposure to prosmoking media on college students' future smoking risk.

PubMed

Shadel, William G; Martino, Steven C; Setodji, Claude; Scharf, Deborah

2012-07-01

This study used ecological momentary assessment to examine acute changes in college students' future smoking risk as a function of their exposure to prosmoking media (e.g., smoking in movies, paid advertising, point-of-sale displays). A sample of 135 college students ("ever" and "never" smokers) carried handheld computers for 21 days, recording their exposures to all forms of prosmoking media during the assessment period. They also responded to three investigator-initiated control prompts during each day of the assessment period (i.e., programmed to occur randomly). After each prosmoking media exposure and after each random control prompt they answered questions that measured their risk of future smoking. Responses between prosmoking media encounters were compared (within subjects) to responses made during random control prompts. Compliance with the study protocol was high, with participants responding to over 83% of all random prompts. Participants recorded nearly three encounters with prosmoking media each week. Results of linear mixed modeling indicated that all participants had higher future smoking risk following exposure to prosmoking media compared with control prompts (p < .05); this pattern of response did not differ between ever and never smokers (p = .769). Additional modeling of the variances around participants' risk of future smoking revealed that the response of never smokers to prosmoking media was significantly more variable than the response of ever smokers. Exposure to prosmoking media is associated with acute changes in future smoking risk, and never smokers and ever smokers respond differently to these exposures.

The Monitoring the Future Project after Four Decades: Design and Procedures. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 82

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bachman, Jerald G.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed description of the Monitoring the Future research design, including sampling design, data collection procedures, measurement content, and questionnaire format. This study assesses the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth on a continuing basis. Each year since 1975, at…

Future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Goodby, Emmeline; MacLeod, Andrew K

2016-06-01

This study employed the Future Thinking Task (MacLeod et al., 2005, Br. J. Clin. Psychol., 44, 495) to investigate whether future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis is significantly different from that of matched controls, and to identify its correlates in this patient group. Cross-sectional, mixed-model, case-control design. Participants were 30 patients with first-episode psychosis and 27 matched controls. The Future Thinking Task was used to assess future-directed thinking in both groups. Anxiety and depression were also measured as well as self-report measures of hopelessness, suicide ideation and a measure of negative symptoms. Individuals with psychosis were impaired in future-directed thinking in both positive and negative domains, particularly with respect to the coming year. Increased self-reported hopelessness was associated with reduced positive future thinking and increased negative future thinking. Increased positive future thinking was also associated with reduced severity of negative symptoms, whilst negative future thinking was associated with suicide ideation. Individuals with first-episode psychosis show a reduction in positive future thinking in line with that seen in other clinical groups, but this is accompanied by an unexpected reduction in negative future thinking. The findings suggest a general disengagement with the future in this group that may affect recovery and functioning. Individuals with first-episode psychosis may benefit from interventions to help them engage with their future, in particular in the mid-range, up to 1 year. The Future Thinking Task may be a helpful addition to the assessment of suicide risk in those with first-episode psychosis. Decreased positive future thinking was associated with increased severity of negative symptoms, indicating a potential new treatment angle for this resistant aspect of psychosis. The cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for conclusions about the causal relationship between psychosis and future-directed thinking. This study investigated future-directed thinking in individuals with a range of psychotic illnesses employing a trans-diagnostic approach; therefore, conclusions cannot be drawn about the nature of future-directed thinking in individual psychotic disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualis, Louis

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

Physical Activity, Mind Wandering, Affect, and Sleep: An Ecological Momentary Assessment.

PubMed

Fanning, Jason; Mackenzie, Michael; Roberts, Sarah; Crato, Ines; Ehlers, Diane; McAuley, Edward

2016-08-31

A considerable portion of daily thought is spent in mind wandering. This behavior has been related to positive (eg, future planning, problem solving) and negative (eg, unhappiness, impaired cognitive performance) outcomes. Based on previous research suggesting future-oriented (ie, prospective) mind wandering may support autobiographical planning and self-regulation, this study examined associations between hourly mind wandering and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and the impact of affect and daily sleep on these relations. College-aged adults (N=33) participated in a mobile phone-delivered ecological momentary assessment study for 1 week. Sixteen hourly prompts assessing mind wandering and affect were delivered daily via participants' mobile phones. Perceived sleep quality and duration was assessed during the first prompt each day, and participants wore an ActiGraph accelerometer during waking hours throughout the study week. Study findings suggest present-moment mind wandering was positively associated with future MVPA (P=.03), and this relationship was moderated by affective state (P=.04). Moreover, excessive sleep the previous evening was related to less MVPA across the following day (P=.007). Further, mind wandering was positively related to activity only among those who did not oversleep (P=.007). Together, these results have implications for multiple health behavior interventions targeting physical activity, affect, and sleep. Researchers may also build on this work by studying these relationships in the context of other important behaviors and psychosocial factors (eg, tobacco use, depression, loneliness).

The Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q): Assessing Future Time Perspectives for Facets of an Active Lifestyle.

PubMed

Düzel, Sandra; Voelkle, Manuel C; Düzel, Emrah; Gerstorf, Denis; Drewelies, Johanna; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Demuth, Ilja; Lindenberger, Ulman

2016-01-01

A wider subjective time horizon is assumed to be positively associated with longevity and vitality. In particular, a lifestyle with exposure to novel and varied information is considered beneficial for healthy cognitive aging. At present, measures that specifically assess individuals' perceived temporal extension to engage in active lifestyles in the future are not available. We introduce and validate a new self-report measure, the Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q). The SHH-Q assesses individuals' future time perspectives in relation to four interrelated but distinct lifestyle dimensions: (1) novelty-oriented exploration (Novelty), (2) bodily fitness (Body), (3) work goals (Work), and (4) goals in life (Life Goals). The present study aims at: (a) validating the hypothesized factor structure of the SHH-Q, according to which the SHH-Q consists of four interrelated but distinct subscales, and (b) testing the hypothesis that the Novelty and Body subscales of the SHH-Q show positive and selective associations with markers of cognition and somatic health, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed data from 1,371 healthy individuals (51% women) with a mean age of 70.1 years (SD = 3.6) who participated in the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) and completed the SHH-Q. As predicted, the SHH-Q formed four correlated but distinct subscales: (1) Novelty, (2) Body, (3) Work, and (4) Life Goals. Greater self-reported future novelty orientation was associated with higher current memory performance, and greater future expectations regarding bodily fitness with better current metabolic status. The SHH-Q reliably assesses individual differences in four distinct dimensions of future time perspective. Two of these dimensions, Novelty and Body, show differential associations with cognitive status and somatic health. The SHH-Q may serve as a tool to assess how different facets of future time perspective relate to somatic health, cognition, motivation, and affect, and may help to identify the socioeconomic and individual antecedents, correlates, and consequences of an active lifestyle. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Exposure Assessment at 30 000 Feet: Challenges and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Grajewski, Barbara; Pinkerton, Lynne E.

2015-01-01

Few studies of cancer mortality and incidence among flight crew have included a detailed assessment of both occupational exposures and lifestyle factors that may influence the risk of cancer. In this issue, Kojo et al. (Risk factors for skin cancer among Finnish airline cabin crew. Ann. Occup. Hyg 2013; 57: 695–704) evaluated the relative contributions of ultraviolet and cosmic radiation to the incidence of skin cancer in Finnish flight attendants. This is a useful contribution, yet the reason flight crew members have an increased risk of skin cancer compared with the general population remains unclear. Good policy decisions for flight crew will depend on continued and emerging effective collaborations to increase study power and improve exposure assessment in future flight crew health studies. Improving the assessment of occupational exposures and non-occupational factors will cost additional time and effort, which are well spent if the role of exposures can be clarified in larger studies. PMID:23818455

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

PubMed

Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

2013-01-01

Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

Evaluating hydrological response of future land cover change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

Treesearch

William G. Kepner; I. Shea Burns; David C Goodrich; D. Phillip Guertin; Gabriel S. Sidman; Lainie R. Levick; Wison W.S. Yee; Melissa M.A. Scianni; Clifton S. Meek; Jared B. Vollmer

2016-01-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal...

42 CFR 90.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES HEALTH ASSESSMENTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS STUDIES OF... appropriate for the purposes of carrying out his or her responsibilities under CERCLA. Health assessment means... order to assess any current or future impact on public health, develop health advisories or other...

42 CFR 90.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES HEALTH ASSESSMENTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS STUDIES OF... appropriate for the purposes of carrying out his or her responsibilities under CERCLA. Health assessment means... order to assess any current or future impact on public health, develop health advisories or other...

42 CFR 90.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES HEALTH ASSESSMENTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS STUDIES OF... appropriate for the purposes of carrying out his or her responsibilities under CERCLA. Health assessment means... order to assess any current or future impact on public health, develop health advisories or other...

BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John; Beville, Shelly; Britsch, Del; Hartley, Stephen; Hawes, Suzanne; Johnston, James; Kemp, Paul; Kinler, Quin; Martucci, Antonio; Porthouse, Jon; Reed, Denise; Roy, Kevin; Sapkota, Sijan; Suhayda, Joseph

2003-01-01

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

What Assessment Knowledge and Skills Do Initial Teacher Education Programs Address? A Western Canadian Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poth, Cheryl-Anne

2012-01-01

Teacher education programs play a crucial role in preparing teachers for their future assessment roles and responsibilities, yet many beginning teachers feel unprepared to assess their students' performances (Mertler, 2009). To address concerns related to the relevancy of pre-service assessment education, this study examined 57 syllabi from…

Planning Future Instructional Programs through Computerized L2 Dynamic Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebadi, Saman; Saeedian, Abdulbaset

2016-01-01

Dynamic Assessment (DA) is a postmodern notion in testing which sees instruction and assessment as inextricably mingled contending that learners will progress if provided with dynamic interactions. The main purpose of the study is to see if the scores generated by the computerized dynamic assessment (C-DA) which is grounded in Vygotsky's…

The Objectives and Theoretical Foundation of the Monitoring the Future Study. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 84

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.

2016-01-01

This study assesses the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth on a continuing basis. Each year since 1975, at least 13,000 seniors have participated in the annual survey, which is conducted in some 130 high schools nationwide. Since 1991, the study's annual surveys also have included surveys of similar nationally…

Transit Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) assessment study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

The United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) is engaged in assessing applications that realize the full potential of connected vehicles, travelers, and infrastructure to enhance current operational practices and transform future surface tra...

A critical evaluation of the validity of episodic future thinking: A clinical neuropsychology perspective.

PubMed

Ward, Amanda M

2016-11-01

Episodic future thinking is defined as the ability to mentally simulate a future event. Although episodic future thinking has been studied extensively in neuroscience, this construct has not been explored in depth from the perspective of clinical neuropsychology. The aim of this critical narrative review is to assess the validity and clinical implications of episodic future thinking. A systematic review of episodic future thinking literature was conducted. PubMed and PsycInfo were searched through July 2015 for review and empirical articles with the following search terms: "episodic future thinking," "future mental simulation," "imagining the future," "imagining new experiences," "future mental time travel," "future autobiographical experience," and "prospection." The review discusses evidence that episodic future thinking is important for adaptive functioning, which has implications for neurological populations. To determine the validity of episodic future thinking, the construct is evaluated with respect to related constructs, such as imagination, episodic memory, autobiographical memory, prospective memory, narrative construction, and working memory. Although it has been minimally investigated, there is evidence of convergent and discriminant validity for episodic future thinking. Research has not addressed the incremental validity of episodic future thinking. Practical considerations of episodic future thinking tasks and related constructs in a clinical neuropsychological setting are considered. The utility of episodic future thinking is currently unknown due to the lack of research investigating the validity of episodic future thinking. Future work is discussed, which could determine whether episodic future thinking is an important missing piece in standard clinical neuropsychological assessment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Acceptability of Home-Assessment Post Medical Abortion and Medical Abortion in a Low-Resource Setting in Rajasthan, India. Secondary Outcome Analysis of a Non-Inferiority Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Paul, Mandira; Iyengar, Kirti; Essén, Birgitta; Gemzell-Danielsson, Kristina; Iyengar, Sharad D.; Bring, Johan; Soni, Sunita; Klingberg-Allvin, Marie

2015-01-01

Background Studies evaluating acceptability of simplified follow-up after medical abortion have focused on high-resource or urban settings where telephones, road connections, and modes of transport are available and where women have formal education. Objective To investigate women’s acceptability of home-assessment of abortion and whether acceptability of medical abortion differs by in-clinic or home-assessment of abortion outcome in a low-resource setting in India. Design Secondary outcome of a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial. Setting Outpatient primary health care clinics in rural and urban Rajasthan, India. Population Women were eligible if they sought abortion with a gestation up to 9 weeks, lived within defined study area and agreed to follow-up. Women were ineligible if they had known contraindications to medical abortion, haemoglobin < 85mg/l and were below 18 years. Methods Abortion outcome assessment through routine clinic follow-up by a doctor was compared with home-assessment using a low-sensitivity pregnancy test and a pictorial instruction sheet. A computerized random number generator generated the randomisation sequence (1:1) in blocks of six. Research assistants randomly allocated eligible women who opted for medical abortion (mifepristone and misoprostol), using opaque sealed envelopes. Blinding during outcome assessment was not possible. Main Outcome Measures Women’s acceptability of home-assessment was measured as future preference of follow-up. Overall satisfaction, expectations, and comparison with previous abortion experiences were compared between study groups. Results 731 women were randomized to the clinic follow-up group (n = 353) or home-assessment group (n = 378). 623 (85%) women were successfully followed up, of those 597 (96%) were satisfied and 592 (95%) found the abortion better or as expected, with no difference between study groups. The majority, 355 (57%) women, preferred home-assessment in the event of a future abortion. Significantly more women, 284 (82%), in the home-assessment group preferred home-assessment in the future, as compared with 188 (70%) of women in the clinic follow-up group, who preferred clinic follow-up in the future (p < 0.001). Conclusion Home-assessment is highly acceptable among women in low-resource, and rural, settings. The choice to follow-up an early medical abortion according to women’s preference should be offered to foster women’s reproductive autonomy. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01827995 PMID:26327217

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

Current and Future School Psychologists' Preparedness to Work with LGBT Students: Role of Education and Gay-Straight Alliances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arora, Prerna G.; Kelly, Jennifer; Goldstein, Thalia R.

2016-01-01

This study sought to assess current and future school psychologists' attitudes toward and preparedness to address the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) students in schools. Two-hundred seventy-nine school psychologists (n = 162, 58%) and school psychology graduate students (n = 117, 42%) were included in the study.…

Innovations and Future Directions for Early Numeracy Curriculum-Based Measurement: Commentary on the Special Series, Part 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Methe, Scott A.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this extended commentary article is to frame the set of studies in the first of two issues and recommend areas of inquiry for future research. This special series issue features studies examining the technical qualities of formative assessment procedures that were developed to inform intervention. This article intends to emphasize…

SSMA Science Reviewers' Forecasts for the Future of Science Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jinks, Jerry; Hoffer, Terry

1989-01-01

Described is a study which was conducted as an exploratory assessment of science reviewers' perceptions for the future of science education. Arrives at interpretations for identified categories of computers and high technology, science curriculum, teacher education, training, certification, standards, teaching methods, and materials. (RT)

Synthetic Fuels for Transportation Background Paper #1 : The Future Potential of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-03-01

This report presents a comprehensive review of the future of electric and hybrid vehicles through the year 2010 in the United States. It was prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment as background information for its study, "Synthetic Fuels fo...

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Momentary Effects of Exposure to Pro-Smoking Media on College Students’ Future Smoking Risk

PubMed Central

Shadel, William G.; Martino, Steven C.; Setodji, Claude; Scharf, Deborah

2012-01-01

Objective This study used ecological momentary assessment to examine acute changes in college students’ future smoking risk as a function of their exposure to pro-smoking media (e.g., smoking in movies, paid advertising, point-of-sale promotions). Methods A sample of 135 college students (ever and never smokers) carried handheld computers for 21 days, recording their exposures to all forms of pro-smoking media during the assessment period. They also responded to three investigator-initiated control prompts during each day of the assessment period (i.e., programmed to occur randomly). After each pro-media smoking exposure and after each random control prompt they answered questions that measured their risk of future smoking. Responses between pro-smoking media encounters were compared to responses made during random control prompts. Results Compliance with the study protocol was high, with participants responding to over 83% of all random prompts. Participants recorded nearly three encounters with pro-smoking media each week. Results of linear mixed modeling indicated that all participants had higher future smoking risk following exposure to pro-smoking media compared with control prompts (p < 0.05); this pattern of response did not differ between ever and never smokers (p = 0.769). Additional modeling of the variances around participants’ risk of future smoking revealed that the response of never smokers to pro-smoking media was significantly more variable than the response of ever smokers. Conclusions Exposure to pro-smoking media is associated with acute changes in future smoking risk, and never smokers and ever smokers respond differently to these exposures. PMID:22353027

Kennesaw Mountain National Battlefield Park : Assessment of Management of Kennesaw Mountain Drive and Bus Shuttle Service.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-06

The purpose of this study is to assess the management of the Kennesaw Mountain Drive, which runs from the Visitor Center to the : summit of Kennesaw Mountain, and assess the future of the shuttle service that operates on the road during weekends, inc...

Validity and Reliability of Field-Based Measures for Assessing Movement Skill Competency in Lifelong Physical Activities: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Hulteen, Ryan M; Lander, Natalie J; Morgan, Philip J; Barnett, Lisa M; Robertson, Samuel J; Lubans, David R

2015-10-01

It has been suggested that young people should develop competence in a variety of 'lifelong physical activities' to ensure that they can be active across the lifespan. The primary aim of this systematic review is to report the methodological properties, validity, reliability, and test duration of field-based measures that assess movement skill competency in lifelong physical activities. A secondary aim was to clearly define those characteristics unique to lifelong physical activities. A search of four electronic databases (Scopus, SPORTDiscus, ProQuest, and PubMed) was conducted between June 2014 and April 2015 with no date restrictions. Studies addressing the validity and/or reliability of lifelong physical activity tests were reviewed. Included articles were required to assess lifelong physical activities using process-oriented measures, as well as report either one type of validity or reliability. Assessment criteria for methodological quality were adapted from a checklist used in a previous review of sport skill outcome assessments. Movement skill assessments for eight different lifelong physical activities (badminton, cycling, dance, golf, racquetball, resistance training, swimming, and tennis) in 17 studies were identified for inclusion. Methodological quality, validity, reliability, and test duration (time to assess a single participant), for each article were assessed. Moderate to excellent reliability results were found in 16 of 17 studies, with 71% reporting inter-rater reliability and 41% reporting intra-rater reliability. Only four studies in this review reported test-retest reliability. Ten studies reported validity results; content validity was cited in 41% of these studies. Construct validity was reported in 24% of studies, while criterion validity was only reported in 12% of studies. Numerous assessments for lifelong physical activities may exist, yet only assessments for eight lifelong physical activities were included in this review. Generalizability of results may be more applicable if more heterogeneous samples are used in future research. Moderate to excellent levels of inter- and intra-rater reliability were reported in the majority of studies. However, future work should look to establish test-retest reliability. Validity was less commonly reported than reliability, and further types of validity other than content validity need to be established in future research. Specifically, predictive validity of 'lifelong physical activity' movement skill competency is needed to support the assertion that such activities provide the foundation for a lifetime of activity.

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Epidemiologic studies of electric and magnetic fields and cancer: strategies for extending knowledge.

PubMed Central

Savitz, D A

1993-01-01

Epidemiologic research concerning electric and magnetic fields in relation to cancer has focused on the potential etiologic roles of residential exposure on childhood cancer and occupational exposure on adult leukemia and brain cancer. Future residential studies must concentrate on exposure assessment that is enhanced by developing models of historical exposure, assessment of the relation between magnetic fields and wire codes, and consideration of alternate exposure indices. Study design issues deserving attention include possible biases in random digit dialing control selection, consideration of the temporal course of exposure and disease, and acquisition of the necessary information to assess the potential value of ecologic studies. Highest priorities are comprehensive evaluation of exposure patterns and sources and examination of the sociology and geography of residential wire codes. Future occupational studies should also concentrate on improved exposure assessment with increased attention to nonutility worker populations and development of historical exposure indicators that are superior to job titles alone. Potential carcinogens in the workplace that could act as confounders need to be more carefully examined. The temporal relation between exposure and disease and possible effect modification by other workplace agents should be incorporated into future studies. The most pressing need is for measurement of exposure patterns in a variety of worker populations and performance of traditional epidemiologic evaluations of cancer occurrence. The principal source of bias toward the null is nondifferential misclassification of exposure with improvements expected to enhance any true etiologic association that is present. Biases away from the null might include biased control selection in residential studies and chemical carcinogens acting as confounders in occupational studies. PMID:8206046

Introduction to the special issue on the personality assessment inventory.

PubMed

Kurtz, John E; Blais, Mark A

2007-02-01

This special issue of the Journal of Personality Assessment brings together 13 new research studies on the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) that should inform users and stimulate future empirical activity with this measure. In 4 articles, authors evaluate the validity scales and indexes of the PAI using both analog and criterion designs and samples from a variety of clinical and forensic settings. In a 5th article, the authors describe a novel approach to profile interpretation using two PAI negative distortion measures. The authors present applications of the PAI to new populations and problems including a German translation of the PAI and profile information for male batterers and victims of head injury. The authors of 2 studies extend research on the validity of the PAI for the assessment of borderline personality disorder. In the final 3 studies, the authors evaluate the validity of PAI measures of violence and aggression to predict subsequent aggressive behavior and institutional misconduct. Finally, the authors offer several suggestions for future research with the PAI.

The Effect of Peer-Assessment on the Attitudes of Pre-Service Elementary and Middle School Teachers about Writing and Assessing Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaver, Cheryl; Beaver, Scott

2011-01-01

Through a study conducted in a core Foundations of Mathematics course at Western Oregon University, the authors investigate the thesis that peer-grading helps future elementary and middle school teachers improve their own attitudes about writing and assessing mathematics. Study participants were asked to provide scale responses to a series of…

Experience of Postpartum Active Duty Women in Training for the Fitness Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-10

fitness assessment after childbirth in order to develop a better understanding of this phenomenon. Design: This was phenomenological study and a...through Profound Life Transitions of Childbirth , and Seeking Understanding from Others. These patterns describe what it means to be an active duty...woman preparing for a fitness assessment after childbirth . Implications for Military Nursing: Results of this study can inform future nursing

Physical Activity, Mind Wandering, Affect, and Sleep: An Ecological Momentary Assessment

PubMed Central

Mackenzie, Michael; Roberts, Sarah; Crato, Ines; Ehlers, Diane; McAuley, Edward

2016-01-01

Background A considerable portion of daily thought is spent in mind wandering. This behavior has been related to positive (eg, future planning, problem solving) and negative (eg, unhappiness, impaired cognitive performance) outcomes. Objective Based on previous research suggesting future-oriented (ie, prospective) mind wandering may support autobiographical planning and self-regulation, this study examined associations between hourly mind wandering and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and the impact of affect and daily sleep on these relations. Methods College-aged adults (N=33) participated in a mobile phone-delivered ecological momentary assessment study for 1 week. Sixteen hourly prompts assessing mind wandering and affect were delivered daily via participants’ mobile phones. Perceived sleep quality and duration was assessed during the first prompt each day, and participants wore an ActiGraph accelerometer during waking hours throughout the study week. Results Study findings suggest present-moment mind wandering was positively associated with future MVPA (P=.03), and this relationship was moderated by affective state (P=.04). Moreover, excessive sleep the previous evening was related to less MVPA across the following day (P=.007). Further, mind wandering was positively related to activity only among those who did not oversleep (P=.007). Conclusions Together, these results have implications for multiple health behavior interventions targeting physical activity, affect, and sleep. Researchers may also build on this work by studying these relationships in the context of other important behaviors and psychosocial factors (eg, tobacco use, depression, loneliness). PMID:27580673

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

The use of electropalatography in the assessment and treatment of acquired motor speech disorders in adults: current knowledge and future directions.

PubMed

McAuliffe, Megan J; Ward, Elizabeth C

2006-01-01

Electropalatography (EPG) has been employed to measure speech articulation since the mid-1970s. This technique has predominately been used in experimental phonetic research and in the diagnosis and treatment of articulation disorders in children. However, there is a growing body of research employing EPG to diagnose and treat articulatory impairment associated with acquired motor speech disorder (MSD) in adults. The purpose of this paper was to (1) review the findings of studies pertaining to the assessment and treatment of MSDs in adults using EPG, (2) highlight current methodologies employed, and (3) discuss the potential limitations of EPG in the assessment and treatment of MSDs and examine directions for future applied research and treatment studies.

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

AnnAGNPS Model Application for Nitrogen Loading Assessment for the Future Midwest Landscape Study

EPA Science Inventory

The Future Midwest Landscape (FML) project is part of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s new Ecosystem Services Research Program, undertaken to examine the variety of ways in which landscapes that include crop lands, conservation areas, wetlands, lakes, and streams af...

Integrating Technology Tools for Students Struggling with Written Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fedora, Pledger

2015-01-01

This exploratory study was designed to assess the experience of preservice teachers when integrating written language technology and their likelihood of applying that technology in their future classrooms. Results suggest that after experiencing technology integration, preservice teachers are more likely to use it in their future teaching.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

EPA Science Inventory

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

The Relationship Talk: Assessing Partner Commitment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelms, Bobbie Jo; Knox, David; Easterling, Beth

2012-01-01

"The talk" is culturally understood to mean a discussion whereby both partners in a relationship reveal their feelings about each other and their commitment to a future together. Typically, one partner feels a greater need to clarity the future and instigates "the talk." This study reports the analysis of a 15 item…

Future Science Teachers' Understandings of Diffusion and Osmosis Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tomazic, Iztok; Vidic, Tatjana

2012-01-01

The concepts of diffusion and osmosis cross the disciplinary boundaries of physics, chemistry and biology. They are important for understanding how biological systems function. Since future (pre-service) science teachers in Slovenia encounter both concepts at physics, chemistry and biology courses during their studies, we assessed the first-,…

The Career Futures Inventory-Revised: Measuring Dimensions of Career Adaptability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rottinghaus, Patrick J.; Buelow, Kristine L.; Matyja, Anna; Schneider, Madalyn R.

2012-01-01

This study reports the development and initial validation of the "Career Futures Inventory-Revised" (CFI-R) in two large samples of university students. The 28-item CFI-R assesses aspects of career adaptability, including positive career planning attitudes, general outcome expectations, and components of Parsons' tripartite model and…

Current and Future Demand for Distance Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDiarmid, G. Williamson; Goldsmith, Scott; Hill, Alexandra; Hull, Teresa

This study assesses current and future demands for distance education at the University of Alaska (UA). It highlights findings from interviews with representatives of 33 rural organizations, and 36 instructors who teach 53 distance education courses. It also lists questions raised and recommendations made by provosts at the Anchorage, Fairbanks,…

Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT): an actuarial risk assessment tool for predicting problematic child-rearing situations in juvenile offenders on the basis of police records.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Stams, Geert Jan J M

2013-12-01

In the juvenile justice system, much attention is paid to estimating the risk for recidivism among juvenile offenders. However, it is also important to estimate the risk for problematic child-rearing situations (care needs) in juvenile offenders, because these problems are not always related to recidivism. In the present study, an actuarial care needs assessment tool for juvenile offenders, the Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT), was developed to predict the probability of (a) a future supervision order imposed by the child welfare agency, (b) a future entitlement to care indicated by the youth care agency, and (c) future incidents involving child abuse, domestic violence, and/or sexual norm trespassing behavior at the juvenile's address. The YO-CNAT has been developed for use by the police and is based solely on information available in police registration systems. It is designed to assist a police officer without clinical expertise in making a quick assessment of the risk for problematic child-rearing situations. The YO-CNAT was developed on a sample of 1,955 juvenile offenders and was validated on another sample of 2,045 juvenile offenders. The predictive validity (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve) scores ranged between .70 (for predicting future entitlement to care) and .75 (for predicting future worrisome incidents at the juvenile's address); therefore, the predictive accuracy of the test scores of the YO-CNAT was sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police in deciding to refer a juvenile offender to the youth care agency for further assessment into care needs.

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

400 SOUTH CORRIDOR ASSESSMENT [2014

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-09-22

The goal of the 400 S Corridor Assessment study is to evaluate current and future traffic and transit performance along the new light rail line corridors and at major intersections in Salt Lake Citys Downtown and University of Utah areas. The fiel...

Future orientation and suicide ideation and attempts in depressed adults ages 50 and over.

PubMed

Hirsch, Jameson K; Duberstein, Paul R; Conner, Kenneth R; Heisel, Marnin J; Beckman, Anthony; Franus, Nathan; Conwell, Yeates

2006-09-01

The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that future orientation is associated with lower levels of suicide ideation and lower likelihood of suicide attempt in a sample of patients in treatment for major depression. Two hundred two participants (116 female, 57%) ages 50-88 years were recruited from inpatient and outpatient settings. All were diagnosed with major depression using a structured diagnostic interview. Suicide ideation was assessed with the Scale for Suicide Ideation (both current and worst point ratings), and a measure of future orientation was created to assess future expectancies. The authors predicted that greater future orientation would be associated with less current and worst point suicide ideation, and would distinguish current and lifetime suicide attempters from nonattempters. Hypotheses were tested using multivariate logistic regression and linear regression analyses that accounted for age, gender, hopelessness, and depression. As hypothesized, higher future orientation scores were associated with lower current suicidal ideation, less intense suicidal ideation at its worst point, and lower probability of a history of attempted suicide after accounting for covariates. Future orientation was not associated with current attempt status. Future orientation holds promise as a cognitive variable associated with decreased suicide risk; a better understanding of its putative protective role is needed. Treatments designed to enhance future orientation might decrease suicide risk.

Apollo/Skylab suit program-management systems study, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcniff, M.

1974-01-01

A management systems study for future spacesuit programs was conducted to assess past suit program requirements and management systems in addition to new and modified systems in order to identify the most cost effective methods for use during future spacesuit programs. The effort and its findings concerned the development and production of all hardware ranging from crew protective gear to total launch vehicles.

The use of virtual reality in the study, assessment, and treatment of body image in eating disorders and nonclinical samples: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Ferrer-García, Marta; Gutiérrez-Maldonado, José

2012-01-01

This article reviews research into the use of virtual reality in the study, assessment, and treatment of body image disturbances in eating disorders and nonclinical samples. During the last decade, virtual reality has emerged as a technology that is especially suitable not only for the assessment of body image disturbances but also for its treatment. Indeed, several virtual environment-based software systems have been developed for this purpose. Furthermore, virtual reality seems to be a good alternative to guided imagery and in vivo exposure, and is therefore very useful for studies that require exposure to life-like situations but which are difficult to conduct in the real world. Nevertheless, review highlights the lack of published controlled studies and the presence of methodological drawbacks that should be considered in future studies. This article also discusses the implications of the results obtained and proposes directions for future research. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What differentiates episodic future thinking from complex scene imagery?

PubMed

de Vito, Stefania; Gamboz, Nadia; Brandimonte, Maria A

2012-06-01

We investigated the contributions of familiarity of setting, self-relevance and self-projection in time to episodic future thinking. The role of familiarity of setting was assessed, in Experiment 1, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical future events supposed to occur in unfamiliar settings. The role of self-relevance was assessed, in Experiment 2, by comparing episodic future thoughts to future events involving familiar others. The role of self-projection in time was assessed, in both Experiments, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical events that were not temporal in nature. Results indicated that episodic future thoughts were more clearly represented than autobiographical future events occurring in unfamiliar setting and future events involving familiar others. Our results also revealed that episodic future thoughts were indistinguishable from autobiographical atemporal events with respect to both subjective and objective detail ratings. These results suggest that future and atemporal events are mentally represented in a similar way. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Attitudes and Beliefs of Preservice Middle School Science Teachers toward Biologically Diverse Animals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Ron; Wagler, Amy

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between United States (US) preservice middle school science teacher characteristics, their attitude toward a specific animal and their belief concerning the likelihood of incorporating information about that specific animal into their future science classroom. The study participants…

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Elementary School Student Mental Health Needs Assessment: Implications for School Counseling Research and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dykeman, Cass

This paper reports on the current state of elementary school student mental health needs assessment and makes recommendations for future school counseling research and practice. The review of the theoretical literature on needs assessment examines several studies by numerous researchers. With one exception, all instruments reviewed were generated…

Development, Evaluation, and Future Directions of the Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey; Allen, Korrie

2011-01-01

The Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines were developed in response to studies of school shootings conducted by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Secret Service, and U.S. Department of Education that recommended schools should adopt a threat assessment approach to prevent targeted violence. This article reviews the…

Eight years of regional scale, benthic assessments of the U.S. West Coast: Lessons learned and future directions

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA National Coastal Assessment (NCA) conducted regional scale assessments of benthic condition for the US West Coast from Washington to California, several regions of Alaska, Hawaii, and the Trust Territories of Guam and American Samoa. Over an 8-year period, studies focuse...

Transition and protective agency of early childhood learning behaviors as portents of later school attendance and adjustment.

PubMed

McDermott, Paul A; Rikoon, Samuel H; Fantuzzo, John W

2016-02-01

This article reports on the study of differential change trajectories for early childhood learning behaviors as they relate to future classroom adjustment and school attendance. A large sample (N=2152) of Head Start children was followed through prekindergarten, kindergarten, and 1st grade. Classroom learning behaviors were assessed twice each year by teachers who observed gradual declines in Competence Motivation and Attentional Persistence as children transitioned through schooling. Cross-classified multilevel growth models revealed distinct transitional pathways for future adjustment versus maladjustment and sporadic versus chronic absenteeism. Generalized multilevel logistic modeling and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that teachers' earliest assessments were substantially predictive of eventual good classroom adjustment and school attendance, with increasing accuracy for prediction of future sociobehavioral adjustment as time progressed. Copyright © 2015 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

N+3 Small Commercial Efficient and Quiet Transportation for Year 2030-2035

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DAngelo, Martin M.; Gallman, John; Johnson, Vicki; Garcia, Elena; Tai, Jimmy; Young, Russell

2010-01-01

This study develops a future scenario that enables convenient point-to-point commercial air travel via a large network of community airports and a new class of small airliners. A network demand and capacity study identifies current and future air travel demands and the capacity of this new network to satisfy these demands. A current technology small commercial airliner is defined to meet the needs of the new network, as a baseline for evaluating the improvement brought about by advanced technologies. Impact of this new mode of travel on the infrastructure and surrounding communities of the small airports in this new N+3 network are also evaluated. Year 2030-2035 small commercial airliner technologies are identified and a trade study conducted to evaluate and select those with the greatest potential for enhancing future air travel and the study metrics. The selected advanced air vehicle concept is assessed against the baseline aircraft, and an advanced, but conventional aircraft, and the study metrics. The key technologies of the selected advanced air vehicle are identified, their impact quantified, and risk assessments and roadmaps defined.

Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments. This final report presents a case study of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs); it focuses on the specific example of MWCNTs as used in flame-retardant coatings applied to upholstery textiles. This case study is organized around the comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) framework, which structures available information pertaining to the product life cycle, environmental transport and fate, exposure-dose in receptors (i.e., humans, ecological populations, and the environment), and potential impacts in these receptors. A group of experts representing multiple disciplines and multiple sector perspectives used an earlier draft of the case study in conjunction with a structured workshop process to identify and prioritize research gaps that, if pursued, could inform future MWCNT assessment efforts. The final report is not a health, risk, or exposure assessment and as such does not draw conclusions about potential risks, or present an exhaustive review of the literature. Rather, it presents the MWCNT research priorities that experts identified in this application of CEA in order to aid research planning throughout the scientific community. The outcomes of these research efforts may subsequ

Group-based social skills interventions for adolescents with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder: a review and looking to the future

PubMed Central

McMahon, Camilla M; Lerner, Matthew D; Britton, Noah

2013-01-01

In this paper, we synthesize the current literature on group-based social skills interventions (GSSIs) for adolescents (ages 10–20 years) with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder and identify key concepts that should be addressed in future research on GSSIs. We consider the research participants, the intervention, the assessment of the intervention, and the research methodology and results to be integral and interconnected components of the GSSI literature, and we review each of these components respectively. Participant characteristics (eg, age, IQ, sex) and intervention characteristics (eg, targeted social skills, teaching strategies, duration and intensity) vary considerably across GSSIs; future research should evaluate whether participant and intervention characteristics mediate/moderate intervention efficacy. Multiple assessments (eg, parent-report, child-report, social cognitive assessments) are used to evaluate the efficacy of GSSIs; future research should be aware of the limitations of current measurement approaches and employ more accurate, sensitive, and comprehensive measurement approaches. Results of GSSIs are largely inconclusive, with few consistent findings across studies (eg, high parent and child satisfaction with the intervention); future research should employ more rigorous methodological standards for evaluating efficacy. A better understanding of these components in the current GSSI literature and a more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of these components in future research will lend clarity to key questions regarding the efficacy of GSSIs for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. PMID:23956616

Resting-state regional cerebral blood flow during adolescence: associations with initiation of substance use and prediction of future use disorders.

PubMed

Ramage, Amy E; Lin, Ai-Ling; Olvera, Rene L; Fox, Peter T; Williamson, Douglas E

2015-04-01

Adolescence is a period of developmental flux when brain systems are vulnerable to influences of early substance use, which in turn relays increased risk for substance use disorders. Our study intent was to assess adolescent regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) as it relates to current and future alcohol use. The aim was to identify brain-based predictors for initiation of alcohol use and onset of future substance use disorders. Quantitative rCBF was assessed in 100 adolescents (age 12-15). Prospective behavioral assessments were conducted annually over a three-year follow-up period to characterize onset of alcohol initiation, future drinking patterns and use disorders. Comparisons amongst use groups (i.e., current-, future-, and non-alcohol using adolescents) identified rCBF associated with initiation of alcohol use. Regression by future drinking patterns identified rCBF predictive of heavier drinking. Survival analysis determined whether or not baseline rCBF predicted later development of use disorders. Baseline rCBF was decreased to the parietal cortex and increased to mesolimbic regions in adolescents currently using alcohol as well as those who would use alcohol in the future. Higher baseline rCBF to the left fusiform gyrus and lower rCBF to the right inferior parietal cortex and left cerebellum was associated with future drinking patterns as well as predicted the onset of alcohol and substance use disorders in this cohort. Variations in resting rCBF to regions within reward and default mode or control networks appear to represent trait markers of alcohol use initiation and are predictive of future development of use disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants.

PubMed Central

Möller, L; Schuetzle, D; Autrup, H

1994-01-01

This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out this research. PMID:7529703

Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

PubMed Central

Teilans, Artis

2013-01-01

Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century. PMID:23983619

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

DOE PAGES

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

2015-05-25

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grant, Warren; Lutomski, Michael G.

2011-01-01

Recently the International Space Station (ISS) has incorporated more Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) in the decision making process for significant issues. Future PRAs will have major impact to ISS and future spacecraft development and operations. These PRAs will have their foundation in the current complete ISS PRA model and the current PRA trade studies that are being analyzed as requested by ISS Program stakeholders. ISS PRAs have recently helped in the decision making process for determining reliability requirements for future NASA spacecraft and commercial spacecraft, making crew rescue decisions, as well as making operational requirements for ISS orbital orientation, planning Extravehicular activities (EVAs) and robotic operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA model and how they impacted the final decision. This paper will discuss future analysis topics such as life extension, requirements of new commercial vehicles visiting ISS.

Aggression and risk of future violence in forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia.

PubMed

Selenius, Heidi; Hellström, Ake; Belfrage, Henrik

2011-05-01

Dyslexia does not cause criminal behaviour, but it may worsen aggressive behaviour tendencies. In this study, aggressive behaviour and risk of future violence were compared between forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia. Dyslexia was assessed using the Swedish phonological processing battery 'The Pigeon'. The patients filled in the Aggression Questionnaire, and trained assessors performed the risk assessments using HCR-20 version 2. Patients with dyslexia self-reported more aggressive behaviour compared with those without dyslexia. There was only a nearly significant tendency (p = 0.06) for the patients with dyslexia to receive higher scores in the HCR-20 compared with the patients without dyslexia, and phonological processing skills did not significantly predict aggression or risk of future violence. However, regression analyses demonstrated that poor phonological processing skills are a significant predictor of anger, which in turn significantly predicts risk of future violence. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Studies of Climate Change in the Yukon River Basin: Connecting Community and Science Through a Unique Partnership

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Paul F.; Maracle, Karonhiakta'tie Byran

2010-01-01

An exciting new partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) is yielding critical data for the assessment of climate change effects in the Yukon River Basin. The foundation of this partnership is a shared interest in the current and future water quality of the Yukon River and its relation to climate. The USGS began a landmark study of the Yukon River and its major tributaries in 2000. A key objective of this study is to establish a baseline dataset of water quality, which will serve as an important frame of reference to assess future changes in the basin that may result from a warmer climate.

Residential clothes dryer market assessment. Topical report, February 1995-November 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul, D.D.; Ide, B.E.

1996-02-01

The objective of this project was to provide a technology assessment of the residential clothes dryer market with the intent of identifying the most competitive gas technology for future market condition scenarios. This study included a review of both foreign and domestic clothes drying technologies employing either gas or electric heating elements. A review of microwave and heat pump drying technologies was also included in the analysis. This report examines the potential future opportunities and threats for the gas industry with regard to residential clothes drying.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

Current and Future Developments in Air Traffic Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Joseph; Green, Steven M.

1999-01-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications services in the industrial sector of the United States are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research market suitability analysis; (2) market development; (3) end use matching; (4) industrial application studies; and (5) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2, 3, and 4 digit SIC, primary fuel. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed.

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

Aggression and Risk of Future Violence in Forensic Psychiatric Patients with and without Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selenius, Heidi; Hellstrom, Ake; Belfrage, Henrik

2011-01-01

Dyslexia does not cause criminal behaviour, but it may worsen aggressive behaviour tendencies. In this study, aggressive behaviour and risk of future violence were compared between forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia. Dyslexia was assessed using the Swedish phonological processing battery "The Pigeon". The patients…

ASSESSING THE RELATIVE AND COMBINED IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND-USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...

Current and Future Effects of Mexican Immigration in California. Executive Summary. R-3365/1-CR.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Kevin F.; Valdez, R. Burciaga

This study to assess the current situation of Mexican immigrants in California and project future possibilities constructs a demographic profile of the immigrants, examines their economic effects on the state, and describes their socioeconomic integration into California society. Models of immigration/integration processes are developed and used…

Assessing personal talent determinants in young racquet sport players: a systematic review.

PubMed

Faber, Irene R; Bustin, Paul M J; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Since junior performances have little predictive value for future success, other solutions are sought to assess a young player's potential. The objectives of this systematic review are (1) to provide an overview of instruments measuring personal talent determinants of young players in racquet sports, and (2) to evaluate these instruments regarding their validity for talent development. Electronic searches were conducted in PubMed, PsychINFO, Web of Knowledge, ScienceDirect and SPORTDiscus (1990 to 31 March 2014). Search terms represented tennis, table tennis, badminton and squash, the concept of talent, methods of testing and children. Thirty articles with information regarding over 100 instruments were included. Validity evaluation showed that instruments focusing on intellectual and perceptual abilities, and coordinative skills discriminate elite from non-elite players and/or are related to current performance, but their predictive validity is not confirmed. There is moderate evidence that the assessments of mental and goal management skills predict future performance. Data on instruments measuring physical characteristics prohibit a conclusion due to conflicting findings. This systematic review yielded an ambiguous end point. The lack of longitudinal studies precludes verification of the instrument's capacity to forecast future performance. Future research should focus on instruments assessing multidimensional talent determinants and their predictive value in longitudinal designs.

A systematic model to compare nurses' optimal and actual competencies in the clinical setting.

PubMed

Meretoja, Riitta; Koponen, Leena

2012-02-01

This paper is a report of a study to develop a model to compare nurses' optimal and actual competencies in the clinical setting.   Although future challenge is to focus the developmental and educational targets in health care, limited information is available on methods for how to predict optimal competencies. A multidisciplinary group of 24 experts on perioperative care were recruited to this study. They anticipated the effects of future challenges on perioperative care and specified the level of optimal competencies by using the Nurse Competence Scale before and after group discussions. The expert group consensus discussions were held to achieve the highest possible agreement on the overall level of optimal competencies. Registered Nurses (n = 87) and their nurse managers from five different units conducted assessments of the actual level of nurse competence with the Nurse Competence Scale instrument. Data were collected in 2006-2007. Group consensus discussions solidified experts' anticipations about the optimal competence level. This optimal competence level was significantly higher than the nurses' self-reported actual or nurse managers' assessed level of actual competence. The study revealed some competence items that were seen as key challenges for future education of professional nursing practice. It is important that the multidisciplinary experts in a particular care context develop a share understanding of the future competency requirements of patient care. Combining optimal competence profiles to systematic competence assessments contribute to targeted continual learning and educational interventions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Epidemiologic studies of electric and magnetic fields and cancer: Strategies for extending knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savitz, D.A.

1993-12-01

Epidemiologic research concerning electric and magnetic fields in relation to cancer has focused on the potential etiologic roles of residential exposure on childhood cancer and occupational exposure on adult leukemia and brain cancer. Future residential studies must concentrate on exposure assessment that is enhanced by developing models of historical exposure, assessment of the relation between magnetic fields and wire codes, and consideration of alternate exposure indices. Study design issues deserving attention include possible biases in random digit dialing control selection, consideration of the temporal course of exposure and disease, and acquisition of the necessary information to assess the potential valuemore » of ecologic studies. Highest priorities are comprehensive evaluation of exposure patterns and sources and examination of the sociology and geography of residential wire codes. Future occupational studies should also concentrate on improved exposure assessment with increased attention to nonutility worker populations and development of historical exposure indicators that are superior to job titles alone. Potential carcinogens in the workplace that could act as confounders need to be more carefully examined. The temporal relation between exposure and disease and possible effect modification by other workplace agents should be incorporated into future studies. The most pressing need is for measurement of exposure patterns in a variety of worker populations and performance of traditional epidemiologic evaluations of cancer occurrence. The principal source of bias toward the null is nondifferential misclassification of exposure with improvements expected to enhance any true etiologic association that is present. Biases away from the null might include biased control selection in residential studies and chemical carcinogens acting as confounders in occupational studies. 51 refs., 1 tab.« less

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Integrative tobacco cessation: A survey assessing past quit strategies and future interest.

PubMed

Howerter, Amy; Floden, Lysbeth; Matthews, Eva; Muramoto, Myra L

2016-04-01

Tobacco cessation remains a public health priority. Unassisted quits are most common despite evidence for a combination of guideline-recommended strategies. This paper reports findings from a pilot study designed to assess past quit strategies and tobacco users' receptiveness to using an integrative clinic that offers both conventional and alternative treatments for future cessation attempts. Participants were recruited from a pool of individuals reporting for jury duty. Paper-pencil surveys assessed smoking, past cessation behaviors, and interest in use of the integrative clinic which offers both conventional and alternative treatments. Current and former smokers (n=304) returned surveys. Using multivariate logistic regression, past physiological quit strategies, past behavioral quit strategies, and use of multiple quit strategies increased agreement with interest in future use of an integrative clinic option. Additionally, there is support for the notion that if such a clinic were offered, smokers may be inclined to use this resource for a future quit attempt. An integrative clinic option for tobacco cessation may encourage smokers to try to quit, especially for those who have used varied cessation strategies in the past. Motivating smokers to use a combined approach for tobacco cessation is a potential future direction for tobacco cessation treatment. Developing and testing an integrative approach may support this effort.

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research.

PubMed

Endres, Megan L; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA's situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

An Exploratory Study of a Measure of Vocational Identity for Spanish-Speaking Persons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tosado, Luis Antonio, II

2012-01-01

Two overlapping issues have given rise to this study: the need for assessment instruments to use with Spanish-speaking Latinos and the need for normative data on current and future Spanish-language instruments. Numerous career assessment instruments exist for the English-speaking population. These instruments may be administered on computer-based…

New approaches in human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

2010-01-01

Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

E-Assessment: Challenges to the Legitimacy of VET Practitioners and Auditors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callan, Victor J.; Johnston, Margaret A.; Clayton, Berwyn; Poulsen, Alison L.

2016-01-01

This research examines what practitioners in vocational education and training (VET) organisations and external auditors judge to be the key issues in the current and future use of e-assessment. Applying the framework of legitimacy theory, the study examined the tensions around the use and growth of e-assessment in training organisations, and…

Assessing long-term hydrologic impact of climate change using ensemble approach and comparison with Global Gridded Model-A case study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation an...

Ten Years of Using Presentations at a Student Conference as a Final Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lund, Nick

2013-01-01

The final assessment for all psychology courses in the department of interdisciplinary studies, MMU Cheshire programmes, in the past 10 years has been a presentation of project work at an undergraduate conference. It is argued that this acts as an "authentic" assessment method which helps prepare students for future experiences. Alumni…

Postcessation weight gain concern as a barrier to smoking cessation: Assessment considerations and future directions.

PubMed

Germeroth, Lisa J; Levine, Michele D

2018-01-01

Concern about postcessation weight gain may be one potential barrier to quitting smoking. In this 'mini-review' of recent literature, we summarize findings on the relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation, and evaluate varied use of postcessation weight gain concern assessments and potential moderators of the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. We conducted a search using the terms "smoking" OR "smoking cessation" AND "weight concern" for articles published between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2016. We identified 17 studies assessing postcessation weight gain concern, seven of which evaluated the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. The relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation was mixed. Recent studies varied in their assessments of postcessation weight gain concern, many of which were not validated and assessed correlates of this construct. Studies varied in their adjustment of demographic (e.g., sex), smoking-specific (e.g., smoking level), and weight-specific (e.g., body mass index) variables. The use of non-validated assessments and variability in testing covariates/moderators may contribute to conflicting results regarding the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation relationship. We recommend validating an assessment of postcessation weight gain concern, maintaining vigilance in testing and reporting covariates/moderators, and investigating trajectories of this construct over time and by smoking status to inform future assessment and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engineered nanomaterial risk. Lessons learnt from completed nanotoxicology studies: potential solutions to current and future challenges.

PubMed

Johnston, Helinor; Pojana, Giulio; Zuin, Stefano; Jacobsen, Nicklas Raun; Møller, Peter; Loft, Steffen; Semmler-Behnke, Manuela; McGuiness, Catherine; Balharry, Dominique; Marcomini, Antonio; Wallin, Håkan; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Donaldson, Ken; Tran, Lang; Stone, Vicki

2013-01-01

PARTICLE_RISK was one of the first multidisciplinary projects funded by the European Commission's Framework Programme that was responsible for evaluating the implications of nanomaterial (NM) exposure on human health. This project was the basis for this review which identifies the challenges that exist within the assessment of NM risk. We have retrospectively reflected on the findings of completed nanotoxicology studies to consider what progress and advances have been made within the risk assessment of NMs, as well as discussing the direction that nanotoxicology research is taking and identifying the limitations and failings of existing research. We have reflected on what commonly encountered challenges exist and explored how these issues may be resolved. In particular, the following is discussed (i) NM selection (ii) NM physico-chemical characterisation; (iii) NM dispersion; (iv) selection of relevant doses and concentrations; (v) identification of relevant models, target sites and endpoints; (vi) development of alternatives to animal testing; and (vii) NM risk assessment. These knowledge gaps are relatively well recognised by the scientific community and recommendations as to how they may be overcome in the future are provided. It is hoped that this will help develop better defined hypothesis driven research in the future that will enable comprehensive risk assessments to be conducted for NMs. Importantly, the nanotoxicology community has responded and adapted to advances in knowledge over recent years to improve the approaches used to assess NM hazard, exposure and risk. It is vital to learn from existing information provided by ongoing or completed studies to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, and to offer guidance on aspects of the experimental design that should be carefully considered prior to the start of a new study.

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Community Needs Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chrismer, John M.

This document reports a needs assessment study designed and conducted to provide South Seattle Community College (SSCC) with information about the present and future educational, occupational training, and cultural needs of the total community served. Results of the survey are divided into chapters covering a specific population of the community…

Broadband Satellite Technologies and Markets Assessed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallett, Thomas M.

1999-01-01

The current usage of broadband (data rate greater than 64 kilobits per second (kbs)) for multimedia network computer applications is increasing, and the need for network communications technologies and systems to support this use is also growing. Satellite technology will likely be an important part of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) and the Global Information Infrastructure (GII) in the next decade. Several candidate communications technologies that may be used to carry a portion of the increased data traffic have been reviewed, and estimates of the future demand for satellite capacity have been made. A study was conducted by the NASA Lewis Research Center to assess the satellite addressable markets for broadband applications. This study effort included four specific milestones: (1) assess the changing nature of broadband applications and their usage, (2) assess broadband satellite and terrestrial technologies, (3) estimate the size of the global satellite addressable market from 2000 to 2010, and (4) identify how the impact of future technology developments could increase the utility of satellite-based transport to serve this market.

Stakeholders' Perspectives towards the Use of the Comprehensive Health Assessment Program (CHAP) for Adults with Intellectual Disabilities in Manitoba.

PubMed

Shooshtari, Shahin; Temple, Beverley; Waldman, Celeste; Abraham, Sneha; Ouellette-Kuntz, Héléne; Lennox, Nicholas

2017-07-01

No standardized tool is used in Canada for comprehensive health assessments of adults with intellectual disabilities. This study was conducted to determine the feasibility of implementing the Comprehensive Health Assessment Program (CHAP) in Manitoba, Canada. This was a qualitative study using a purposive sample of physicians, nurse practitioners, support workers and families. Data were collected through individual interviews and focus groups and were analysed using content analysis. Use of the CHAP was perceived as beneficial for persons with intellectual disabilities. Improved continuity of care was of the reported benefits. Six barriers for the future implementation of the CHAP were identified including the time required to complete the CHAP, and the perceived lack of physicians' willingness to do comprehensive assessments. The future implementation of the CHAP was strongly supported. For its successful implementation, training of healthcare professionals and support staff and change in regulations and policies were recommended. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Episodic Future Thinking in 3- to 5-Year-Old Children: The Ability to Think of What Will Be Needed from a Different Point of View

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, James; Alexis, Dean; Clayton, Nicola

2010-01-01

Assessing children's episodic future thinking by having them select items for future use may be assessing their functional reasoning about the future rather than their future episodic thinking. In an attempt to circumvent this problem, we capitalised on the fact that episodic cognition necessarily has a spatial format ([Clayton and Russell, 2009]…

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Episodic Memory and Episodic Future Thinking Impairments in High-Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder: An Underlying Difficulty With Scene Construction or Self-Projection?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objective: There appears to be a common network of brain regions that underlie the ability to recall past personal experiences (episodic memory) and the ability to imagine possible future personal experiences (episodic future thinking). At the cognitive level, these abilities are thought to rely on “scene construction” (the ability to bind together multimodal elements of a scene in mind—dependent on hippocampal functioning) and temporal “self-projection” (the ability to mentally project oneself through time—dependent on prefrontal cortex functioning). Although autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by diminished episodic memory, it is unclear whether episodic future thinking is correspondingly impaired. Moreover, the underlying basis of such impairments (difficulties with scene construction, self-projection, or both) is yet to be established. The current study therefore aimed to elucidate these issues. Method: Twenty-seven intellectually high-functioning adults with ASD and 29 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison adults were asked to describe (a) imagined atemporal, non-self-relevant fictitious scenes (assessing scene construction), (b) imagined plausible self-relevant future episodes (assessing episodic future thinking), and (c) recalled personally experienced past episodes (assessing episodic memory). Tests of narrative ability and theory of mind were also completed. Results: Performances of participants with ASD were significantly and equally diminished in each condition and, crucially, this diminution was independent of general narrative ability. Conclusions: Given that participants with ASD were impaired in the fictitious scene condition, which does not involve self-projection, we suggest the underlying difficulty with episodic memory/future thinking is one of scene construction. PMID:24015827

Episodic memory and episodic future thinking impairments in high-functioning autism spectrum disorder: an underlying difficulty with scene construction or self-projection?

PubMed

Lind, Sophie E; Williams, David M; Bowler, Dermot M; Peel, Anna

2014-01-01

There appears to be a common network of brain regions that underlie the ability to recall past personal experiences (episodic memory) and the ability to imagine possible future personal experiences (episodic future thinking). At the cognitive level, these abilities are thought to rely on "scene construction" (the ability to bind together multimodal elements of a scene in mind--dependent on hippocampal functioning) and temporal "self-projection" (the ability to mentally project oneself through time--dependent on prefrontal cortex functioning). Although autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by diminished episodic memory, it is unclear whether episodic future thinking is correspondingly impaired. Moreover, the underlying basis of such impairments (difficulties with scene construction, self-projection, or both) is yet to be established. The current study therefore aimed to elucidate these issues. Twenty-seven intellectually high-functioning adults with ASD and 29 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison adults were asked to describe (a) imagined atemporal, non-self-relevant fictitious scenes (assessing scene construction), (b) imagined plausible self-relevant future episodes (assessing episodic future thinking), and (c) recalled personally experienced past episodes (assessing episodic memory). Tests of narrative ability and theory of mind were also completed. Performances of participants with ASD were significantly and equally diminished in each condition and, crucially, this diminution was independent of general narrative ability. Given that participants with ASD were impaired in the fictitious scene condition, which does not involve self-projection, we suggest the underlying difficulty with episodic memory/future thinking is one of scene construction.

Additional Technologies and Investigations for Provision of Future Aeronautical Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilbert, Tricia; Jin, Jenny; Berger, Jason; Henriksen, Steve

2008-01-01

The following NASA Contractor Report documents the in-depth studies on select technologies that could support long-term aeronautical mobile communications operating concepts. This work was performed during the third and final phase of NASA s Technology Assessment for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/EUROCONTROL Future Communications Study (FCS) under a multiyear NASA contract. It includes the associated findings of ITT Corporation and NASA Glenn Research Center to the FAA as of the end of May 2007. The activities documented in this report focus on three final technology candidates identified by the United States, and were completed before sufficient information about two additional technology candidates proposed by EUROCONTROL was made available. A separate report to be published by NASA/CR-2008-215144, entitled Final Report on Technology Investigations for Provision of Future Aeronautical Communications will include an assessment of all five final candidate technologies considered by the U.S. agencies (FAA and NASA) and EUROCONTROL. It will also provide an overview of the entire technology assessment process, including final recommendations. All three phases of this work were performed in compliance with the Terms of Reference for the Action Plan number 17 (AP-17) cooperative research agreement among EUROCONTROL, FAA, and NASA along with the general guidance of the FAA and EUROCONTROL available throughout this study.

Factors affecting Iran`s future. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinai, J.

1993-05-28

This study examines the factors affecting Iran`s future by focusing on the demographic, economic, and military trends in Iran and their impact on the country`s national security objectives in the next decade. The paper also assesses the implications of an economic embargo on Iran and potential Iranian threats to regional and United States national interests.

An Assessment of Future Educational and Occupational Plans for Brevard Community College Technical Program Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitehead, Everett

This practicum studies the future educational and/or occupational plans of 223 technical program students enrolled in Brevard Community College (BCC) during the Fall 1973 term in order to suggest adjustments in college procedures to facilitate student transition to continued college or to their chosen professions. The characteristics of technical…

The Association between Preservice Elementary Teacher Animal Attitude and Likelihood of Animal Incorporation in Future Science Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Ron

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association between United States K-4 preservice teacher's attitudes toward specific animals and the likelihood that the preservice elementary teachers would incorporate these specific animals in their future science curriculum. A strong statistically significant association was found between the…

Autism Spectrum Disorders as a Qualitatively Distinct Category from Typical Behavior in a Large, Clinically Ascertained Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazier, Thomas W.; Youngstrom, Eric A.; Sinclair, Leslie; Kubu, Cynthia S.; Law, Paul; Rezai, Ali; Constantino, John N.; Eng, Charis

2010-01-01

The present study evaluated the hypothesis that autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are best represented as a discrete category distinct from typical behavior within autism-affected families. The latent structure, categorical versus dimensional, of ASDs informs future diagnostic revisions, clinical assessment, and the design of future research. Data…

Measuring Change in Career Counseling: Validation of the "Career Futures Inventory-Revised"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rottinghaus, Patrick J.; Eshelman, Alec; Gore, Jonathan S.; Keller, Kari J.; Schneider, Madalyn; Harris, Kristine L.

2017-01-01

This retrospective chart review study examined the factor structure of the "Career Futures Inventory-Revised" (CFI-R; Rottinghaus et al. in "J Career Assess" 20:123-139, 2012) and its utility as a career counseling outcome measure using a sample of 332 clients from a university career center. The CFI-R examines career agency…

Nanomaterial Case Studies: Nanoscale Titanium Dioxide in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Nanomaterial Case Studies: Nanoscale Titanium Dioxide in Water Treatment and in Topical Sunscreen. This report is a starting point to determine what is known and what needs to be known about selected nanomaterials as part of a process to identify and prioritize research to inform future assessments of the potential ecological and health implications of these materials. Two specific applications of nanoscale titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2) are considered: (1) as an agent for removing arsenic from drinking water; and (2) as an active ingredient in topical sunscreen. These case studies are organized around a comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) framework that combines a product life cycle perspective with the risk assessment paradigm. They are intended to help identify what may need to be known in order to conduct a comprehensive environmental assessment of the potential risks related to nano-TiO2. These “case studies” do not represent completed or even preliminary assessments, nor are they intended to serve as a basis for risk management decisions in the near term on these specific uses of nano TiO2. Rather, the intent is to use this document in developing the scientific and technical information needed for future assessment efforts.

Current and future technology in radial and axial gas turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohlik, H. E.

1983-01-01

Design approaches and flow analysis techniques currently employed by aircraft engine manufacturers are assessed. Studies were performed to define the characteristics of aircraft and engines for civil missions of the 1990's and beyond. These studies, coupled with experience in recent years, identified the critical technologies needed to meet long range goals in fuel economy and other operating costs. Study results, recent and current research and development programs, and an estimate of future design and analytic capabilities are discussed.

10 CFR 766.107 - Prepayment of future Special Assessments

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Prepayment of future Special Assessments 766.107 Section 766.107 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY URANIUM ENRICHMENT DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING FUND; PROCEDURES FOR SPECIAL ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.107...

10 CFR 766.107 - Prepayment of future Special Assessments

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Prepayment of future Special Assessments 766.107 Section 766.107 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY URANIUM ENRICHMENT DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING FUND; PROCEDURES FOR SPECIAL ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.107...

10 CFR 766.107 - Prepayment of future Special Assessments

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Prepayment of future Special Assessments 766.107 Section 766.107 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY URANIUM ENRICHMENT DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING FUND; PROCEDURES FOR SPECIAL ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.107...

10 CFR 766.107 - Prepayment of future Special Assessments

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Prepayment of future Special Assessments 766.107 Section 766.107 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY URANIUM ENRICHMENT DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING FUND; PROCEDURES FOR SPECIAL ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.107...

Assessment in Early Intervention and Early Childhood Special Education: Building on the Past to Project into Our Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McConnell, Scott R.

2000-01-01

This article discusses three future directions of early childhood assessment: attention to assessment of progress and growth, adaptation of methods typically associated with ecobehavioral research to assess environmental conditions that affect performance, and continued integration and linkage of assessment and intervention, which will yield more…

NASA RPS Program Overview: A Focus on RPS Users

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamley, John A.; Sutliff, Thomas J.; Sandifer, Carl E., II; Zakrajsek, June F.

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

Variations in microbicide gel acceptability among young women in the USA and Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Giguere, Rebecca; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex; Ventuneac, Ana; Mabragaña, Marina; Dolezal, Curtis; Chen, Beatrice A.; Kahn, Jessica A.; Zimet, Gregory D.; McGowan, Ian

2011-01-01

In a multi-site study of vaginal microbicide acceptability conducted with sexually active young women, quantitative assessments revealed significant differences in acceptability by site. Participants in Puerto Rico rated the gel more favourably than mainland US participants in terms of liking the gel and likelihood of future use. To explain these differences, we examined responses to qualitative behavioural assessments. Young women in the mainland USA associated gel leakage with uncomfortable sensations experienced during menstruation, while young women in Puerto Rico had positive associations of gel use with douching. These negative or positive associations affected assessments of the gel’s physical qualities. In addition, young women’s perceptions of primary partners’ support for microbicide use influenced sexual satisfaction with the gel and, ultimately, product acceptability. Finally, geographic HIV risk context contributed to heightened HIV risk perception, which influenced likelihood of future microbicide use, even for women in stated monogamous relationships. Future microbicide acceptability studies should take into account potential differences in acceptability by site such as HIV risk perception based on local HIV prevalence, popularity of vaginal hygiene products in a specific area, and male attitudes in different cultures concerning women’s use of HIV protection strategies. PMID:22084840

Ambulatory Assessment

PubMed Central

Trull, Timothy J.; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich

2014-01-01

Ambulatory assessment (AA) covers a wide range of assessment methods to study people in their natural environment, including self-report, observational, and biological/physiological/behavioral. AA methods minimize retrospective biases while gathering ecologically valid data from patients’ everyday life in real time or near real time. Here, we report on the major characteristics of AA, and we provide examples of applications of AA in clinical psychology (a) to investigate mechanisms and dynamics of symptoms, (b) to predict the future recurrence or onset of symptoms, (c) to monitor treatment effects, (d) to predict treatment success, (e) to prevent relapse, and (f) as interventions. In addition, we present and discuss the most pressing and compelling future AA applications: technological developments (the smartphone), improved ecological validity of laboratory results by combined lab-field studies, and investigating gene-environment interactions. We conclude with a discussion of acceptability, compliance, privacy, and ethical issues. PMID:23157450

Assessing Multi-scale Reptile and Amphibian Biodiversity: Mojave Ecoregion Case Study

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our environment now and into the future. Because of the variability among living orga...

The scientific legacy of Little Hans and Little Albert: future directions for research on specific phobias in youth.

PubMed

Ollendick, Thomas H; Muris, Peter

2015-01-01

We review issues associated with the phenomenology, etiology, assessment, and treatment of specific phobias in children and adolescents and provide suggestions for future research and clinical practice. In doing so, we highlight the early case studies of Little Hans and Little Albert and the advances that have been made following the publication of these seminal cases. In recent years, we have witnessed a deeper understanding of the etiology of specific phobias and developed a rich array of evidence-based assessments and treatments with which to address specific phobias in youth. Although much has been accomplished in this area of inquiry, we also note that much remains to be done before we can advance more fully our understanding, assessment, and treatment of specific phobias in youth. It will be important for future work to build more firmly on these developments and to better determine the moderators and mediators of change with our evidence-based treatments and to more vigorously pursue their dissemination in real-word settings.

Using health technology assessment to identify gaps in evidence and inform study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Turkelson, Charles

2012-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is primarily used as a tool to ensure that clinical and policy decisions are made with the benefit of a systematic analysis of all completed research. This article describes the progress and potential for HTA reports to improve the quality and relevance of future research and to better serve the information needs of patients, clinicians, payers, and other decision makers. We conducted a review of the current published literature and working papers describing past, ongoing, and future initiatives that rely on HTA reports to identify gaps in evidence and improve the design of future research. Although still in a developmental stage, significant progress is under way to improve methods for using HTA reports for the systematic identification of research gaps, prioritization of future research, and improvement of study designs. Several well-defined frameworks have been developed to assist those who produce HTA to become more effective in these additional domains of work. A recurring element of this work is the importance of meaningfully involving stakeholders in the process of defining future research needs and designing studies to address them. Patients, clinicians, and payers are important audiences for completed research and are now recognized as serving an important role in determining what future research is needed. There are substantial opportunities to improve the quality, relevance, and efficiency of clinical research. Recent efforts are beginning to demonstrate the potential to build on the work invested in developing HTA reports to provide a roadmap toward these objectives.

Nutritional Status Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Scott M.

2008-01-01

Nutritional Status Assessment (Nutrition) is the most comprehensive inflight study done by NASA to date of human physiologic changes during long-duration space flight; this includes measures of bone metabolism, oxidative damage, nutritional assessments, and hormonal changes. This study will impact both the definition of nutritional requirements and development of food systems for future space exploration missions to the Moon and Mars. This experiment will also help to understand the impact of countermeasures (exercise and pharmaceuticals) on nutritional status and nutrient requirements for astronauts.

Uses of Multivariate Analytical Techniques in Online and Blended Business Education: An Assessment of Current Practice and Recommendations for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arbaugh, J. B.; Hwang, Alvin

2013-01-01

Seeking to assess the analytical rigor of empirical research in management education, this article reviews the use of multivariate statistical techniques in 85 studies of online and blended management education over the past decade and compares them with prescriptions offered by both the organization studies and educational research communities.…

Reward-related neural activity and structure predict future substance use in dysregulated youth.

PubMed

Bertocci, M A; Bebko, G; Versace, A; Iyengar, S; Bonar, L; Forbes, E E; Almeida, J R C; Perlman, S B; Schirda, C; Travis, M J; Gill, M K; Diwadkar, V A; Sunshine, J L; Holland, S K; Kowatch, R A; Birmaher, B; Axelson, D A; Frazier, T W; Arnold, L E; Fristad, M A; Youngstrom, E A; Horwitz, S M; Findling, R L; Phillips, M L

2017-06-01

Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth. LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables. Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%. These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.

A Bridge Too Far or a Bridge to the Future? A Case Study in Online Assessment at Charles Sturt University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchan, Janet F.; Swann, Michael

2007-01-01

The in house development of an online assessment tool, OASIS, has provided a unique opportunity to research the use of online assessment in teaching and learning across the university. The developing relationship between IT staff, educational designers and academics serves as a model for integrated and evolving management systems which demonstrate…

Forecasting the VCR: A Retrospective Assessment of Media Trade Press and Academic Forecasts of Its Impact on Broadcasting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Napoli, Philip M.

Retrospective technology assessment (RTA) is the use of historical research to assess current and future technology issues. This paper uses the introduction of the videocassette recorder (VCR) as an RTA case study, focusing on the broadcasting and advertising trade presses and their forecasts of the VCR's potential impact on broadcasting. Trade…

The Development of Science Activities via On-Line Peer Assessment: The Role of Scientific Epistemological Views

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsai, Chin-Chung; Liang, Jyh-Chong

2009-01-01

This study implemented an online peer assessment learning module to help 36 college students with the major of pre-school education to develop science activities for future instruction. Each student was asked to submit a science activity project for pre-school children, and then experienced three rounds of peer assessment. The effects of the…

75 FR 27805 - Comprehensive Needs Assessment (CNA)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-18

... Comprehensive Needs Assessment is a description of current and future needs and resources of certain multifamily...: Comprehensive Needs Assessment (CNA). OMB Approval Number: 2502-0505. Form Numbers: HUD-96001, HUD-96002, HUD..., sanitary, and in good repair. The Comprehensive Needs Assessment is a description of current and future...

Pathways to delinquency and substance use among African American youth: Does future orientation mediate the effects of peer norms and parental monitoring?

PubMed

Marotta, Phillip L; Voisin, Dexter R

2017-10-01

The following study assessed whether future orientation mediated the effects of peer norms and parental monitoring on delinquency and substance use among 549 African American adolescents. Structural equation modeling computed direct and indirect (meditational) relationships between parental monitoring and peer norms through future orientation. Parental monitoring significantly correlated with lower delinquency through future orientation ( B = -.05, standard deviation = .01, p < .01). Future orientation mediated more than quarter (27.70%) of the total effect of parental monitoring on delinquency. Overall findings underscore the importance of strengthening resilience factors for African American youth, especially those who live in low-income communities.

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of sugar-sweetened beverages among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study.

PubMed

Riordan, Fiona; Ryan, Kathleen; Perry, Ivan J; Schulze, Matthias B; Andersen, Lene Frost; Geelen, Anouk; Van't Veer, Pieter; Eussen, Simone; van Dongen, Martien; Wijckmans-Duysens, Nicole; Harrington, Janas M

2017-03-01

Research indicates that intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) may be associated with negative health consequences. However, differences between assessment methods can affect the comparability of intake data across studies. The current review aimed to identify methods used to assess SSB intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and to inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed SSB consumption were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children and adults. The review identified twenty-three pan-European studies which assessed intake of SSB. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 24), followed by the 24 h recall (n 6) and diet records (n 1). There were several differences between the identified FFQ, including the definition of SSB used. In total, seven instruments that were tested for validity were selected as potentially suitable to assess SSB intake among adults (n 1), adolescents (n 3) and children (n 3). The current review highlights the need for instruments to use an agreed definition of SSB. Methods that were tested for validity and used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of countries were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating consumption of SSB.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change...

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

New approaches in human health risk assessment

PubMed Central

Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

Men Who Abuse Their Spouses: An Approach to Assessing Future Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldsmith, Herbert R.

1990-01-01

Studied risk assessment for abuse cases by examining cases (N=20) referred to local spouse treatment center. Focused on woman's perception of mate's personality/behavioral characteristics and relationship plus other situational factors. Confirmed majority of risk factors associated with spouse abuse as reported in the literature. Presents pilot…

Comparing the Major Definitions of Mathematics Pedagogical Content Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research was to compare two definitions and assessments of Mathematics Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK). As part of a larger study, nine current and future teachers took an online version of the Measures of Knowledge for Teaching (MKT)--Mathematics assessment and the Cognitively Activating Instruction in Mathematics…

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO FORECASTED LAND-USE CHANGE: SCENARIO TESTING WITH THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits or consequences. Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatia...

Modern Psychometrics for Assessing Achievement Goal Orientation: A Rasch Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muis, Krista R.; Winne, Philip H.; Edwards, Ordene V.

2009-01-01

Background: A program of research is needed that assesses the psychometric properties of instruments designed to quantify students' achievement goal orientations to clarify inconsistencies across previous studies and to provide a stronger basis for future research. Aim: We conducted traditional psychometric and modern Rasch-model analyses of the…

EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF NEURODEVELOPMENTAL ENDPOINTS FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT -- POSITIVE CONTROL STUDIES, NORMAL VARIABILITY AND STATISTICAL ISSUES.

EPA Science Inventory

ILSI Research Foundation/Risk Science Institute convened an expert working group to assess the lessons learned from the implementation of the EPA Developmental Neurotoxicity (DNT) Guideline and provide guidance for future use. The group prepared manuscripts in five areas: public ...

The Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study Pathways to Cannabis Use, Abuse and Dependence Project: Current status, preliminary results and future directions

PubMed Central

Gillespie, NA; Henders, AK; Davenport, TA; Hermens, DF; Wright, MJ; Martin, NG; Hickie, IB

2013-01-01

We describe the data being collected from the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study (BLTS) in Australia as part of the US National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) funded project Pathways to Cannabis Use, Abuse and Dependence. The history, recruitment, assessment and retention of twin families in this project are described in detail along with preliminary findings and plans for future research. The goal of this NIDA project is to make a significant contribution to the discovery of quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing cannabis use disorders. Although the focus is cannabis use, abuse and dependence in young adults, measures of comorbid illicit drug use disorders are also being collected. In addition, a variety of internalizing and externalizing disorders are being assessed, funded by support from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Because these same twins have participated in numerous twin studies since 1992, future plans will include linking different phenotypes to investigate relationships between drug use, psychiatric disorders and psychological phenotypes within cross-sectional and longitudinal or developmental frameworks. PMID:23187020

The Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study: Pathways to Cannabis Use, Abuse, and Dependence project-current status, preliminary results, and future directions.

PubMed

Gillespie, Nathan A; Henders, Anjali K; Davenport, Tracy A; Hermens, Daniel F; Wright, Margie J; Martin, Nicholas G; Hickie, Ian B

2013-02-01

We describe the data being collected from the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study in Australia as part of the US National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)-funded project, Pathways to Cannabis Use, Abuse and Dependence. The history, recruitment, assessment, and retention of twin families in this project are described in detail, along with preliminary findings and plans for future research. The goal of this NIDA project is to make a significant contribution to the discovery of quantitative trait loci influencing cannabis use disorders. Although the focus is cannabis use, abuse, and dependence in young adults, measures of comorbid illicit drug use disorders are also being collected. In addition, a variety of internalizing and externalizing disorders are being assessed, funded by support from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Because these same twins have participated in numerous twin studies since 1992, future plans will include linking different phenotypes to investigate relationships between drug use, psychiatric disorders, and psychological phenotypes within cross-sectional and longitudinal or developmental frameworks.

Racial Discrimination and Health Among Asian Americans: Evidence, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research

PubMed Central

Gee, Gilbert C.; Ro, Annie; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Chae, David

2016-01-01

Research shows that racial discrimination is related to illness among diverse racial and ethnic populations. Studies of racial discrimination and health among Asian Americans, however, remain underdeveloped. In this paper, the authors review evidence on racial discrimination and health among Asian Americans, identify gaps in the literature, and provide suggestions for future research. They identified 62 empirical articles assessing the relation between discrimination and health among Asian Americans. The majority of articles focused on mental health problems, followed by physical and behavioral problems. Most studies find that discrimination was associated with poorer health, although the most consistent findings were for mental health problems. This review suggests that future studies should continue to investigate the following: 1) the measurement of discrimination among Asian Americans, whose experiences may be qualitatively different from those of other racial minority groups; 2) the heterogeneity among Asian Americans, including those factors that are particularly salient in this population, such as ethnic ancestry and immigration history; and 3) the health implications of discrimination at multiple ecologic levels, ranging from the individual level to the structural level. PMID:19805401

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Application of four-dimension criteria to assess rigour of qualitative research in emergency medicine.

PubMed

Forero, Roberto; Nahidi, Shizar; De Costa, Josephine; Mohsin, Mohammed; Fitzgerald, Gerry; Gibson, Nick; McCarthy, Sally; Aboagye-Sarfo, Patrick

2018-02-17

The main objective of this methodological manuscript was to illustrate the role of using qualitative research in emergency settings. We outline rigorous criteria applied to a qualitative study assessing perceptions and experiences of staff working in Australian emergency departments. We used an integrated mixed-methodology framework to identify different perspectives and experiences of emergency department staff during the implementation of a time target government policy. The qualitative study comprised interviews from 119 participants across 16 hospitals. The interviews were conducted in 2015-2016 and the data were managed using NVivo version 11. We conducted the analysis in three stages, namely: conceptual framework, comparison and contrast and hypothesis development. We concluded with the implementation of the four-dimension criteria (credibility, dependability, confirmability and transferability) to assess the robustness of the study, RESULTS: We adapted four-dimension criteria to assess the rigour of a large-scale qualitative research in the emergency department context. The criteria comprised strategies such as building the research team; preparing data collection guidelines; defining and obtaining adequate participation; reaching data saturation and ensuring high levels of consistency and inter-coder agreement. Based on the findings, the proposed framework satisfied the four-dimension criteria and generated potential qualitative research applications to emergency medicine research. We have added a methodological contribution to the ongoing debate about rigour in qualitative research which we hope will guide future studies in this topic in emergency care research. It also provided recommendations for conducting future mixed-methods studies. Future papers on this series will use the results from qualitative data and the empirical findings from longitudinal data linkage to further identify factors associated with ED performance; they will be reported separately.

Monitoring Million Trees LA: Tree performance during the early years and future benefits

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson

2014-01-01

Million Trees LA (MTLA) is one of several large-scale mayoral tree planting initiatives striving to create more livable cities through urban forestry. This study combined field sampling of tree survival and growth with numerical modeling of future benefits to assess performance of MTLA plantings. From 2006 to 2010 MTLA planted a diverse mix of 91,786 trees....

Reviews of Data on Science Resources, No. 29. Current and Future Utilization of Scientific and Technical Personnel in Energy-Related Activities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Div. of Science Resources Studies.

This National Science Foundation (NSF) bulletin summarizes the NSF program of energy manpower studies that assessed the impact of past energy developments and future options for scientific and technical manpower. This document summarizes the utilization of scientific personnel in energy-related activities in private industry in 1975 and shortages…

Engineering Education and Practice in the United States: Foundations of Our Techno-Economic Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC.

The National Research Council's Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer conducted a study aimed at achieving a comprehensive understanding of engineering in the United States and an assessment of its capacity to meet present and future needs. This document reports on the findings of the committee's work over a 2-year period. The…

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E. H. J.; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Humans and ecosystems over the coming millennia: overview of a biosphere assessment of radioactive waste disposal in Sweden.

PubMed

Kautsky, Ulrik; Lindborg, Tobias; Valentin, Jack

2013-05-01

This is an overview of the strategy used to describe the effects of a potential release from a radioactive waste repository on human exposure and future environments. It introduces a special issue of AMBIO, in which 13 articles show ways of understanding and characterizing the future. The study relies mainly on research performed in the context of a recent safety report concerning a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden (the so-called SR-Site project). The development of a good understanding of on-site processes and acquisition of site-specific data facilitated the development of new approaches for assessment of surface ecosystems. A systematic and scientifically coherent methodology utilizes the understanding of the current spatial and temporal dynamics as an analog for future conditions. We conclude that future ecosystem can be inferred from a few variables and that this multidisciplinary approach is relevant in a much wider context than radioactive waste.

Empirical Examinations of Modifications and Adaptations to Evidence-Based Psychotherapies: Methodologies, Impact, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Stirman, Shannon Wiltsey; Gamarra, Jennifer; Bartlett, Brooke; Calloway, Amber; Gutner, Cassidy

2017-12-01

This review describes methods used to examine the modifications and adaptations to evidence-based psychological treatments (EBPTs), assesses what is known about the impact of modifications and adaptations to EBPTs, and makes recommendations for future research and clinical care. One hundred eight primary studies and three meta-analyses were identified. All studies examined planned adaptations, and many simultaneously investigated multiple types of adaptations. With the exception of studies on adding or removing specific EBPT elements, few studies compared adapted EBPTs to the original protocols. There was little evidence that adaptations in the studies were detrimental, but there was also limited consistent evidence that adapted protocols outperformed the original protocols, with the exception of adding components to EBPTs. Implications for EBPT delivery and future research are discussed.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts among Depressed Suicide Ideators: A 10-year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

May, Alexis M.; Klonsky, E. David; Klein, Daniel N.

2012-01-01

Suicidal ideation and attempts are a major public health problem. Research has identified many risk factors for suicidality; however, most fail to identify which suicide ideators are at greatest risk of progressing to a suicide attempt. Thus, the present study identified predictors of future suicide attempts in a sample of psychiatric patients reporting suicidal ideation. The sample comprised 49 individuals who met full DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder and/or dysthymic disorder and reported suicidal ideation at baseline. Participants were followed for 10 years. Demographic, psychological, personality, and psychosocial risk factors were assessed using validated questionnaires and structured interviews. Phi coefficients and point-biserial correlations were used to identify prospective predictors of attempts, and logistic regressions were used to identify which variables predicted future attempts over and above past suicide attempts. Six significant predictors of future suicide attempts were identified – cluster A personality disorder, cluster B personality disorder, lifetime substance abuse, baseline anxiety disorder, poor maternal relationship, and poor social adjustment. Finally, exploratory logistic regressions were used to examine the unique contribution of each significant predictor controlling for the others. Co-morbid cluster B personality disorder emerged as the only robust, unique predictor of future suicide attempts among depressed suicide ideators. Future research should continue to identify variables that predict transition from suicidal thoughts to suicide attempts, as such work will enhance clinical assessment of suicide risk as well as theoretical models of suicide. PMID:22575331

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

2017-02-26

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education – an explorative Delphi-Study

PubMed Central

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E.

2016-01-01

Background: 64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of “outcome-orientated training” is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) – the German OF – the “Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education” (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the “Clinical-Practical Skills” chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students’ graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Methodology: Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. Results: 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant, and 57 were deemed irrelevant for the short-term future. Discussion: The theses on the future of healthcare, which were generated in this study and which were validated by numerous experts, provide indications of future developments of overall requirements for medical school graduates. For example, when applied to the content of the “Clinical-Practical Skills” NKLM chapter, they largely validate the future relevance of developing practical skills while also providing indications for their further development as applied to the consensus statement. PMID:27579362

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education - an explorative Delphi-Study.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E

2016-01-01

64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of "outcome-orientated training" is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) - the German OF - the "Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education" (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the "Clinical-Practical Skills" chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students' graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant, and 57 were deemed irrelevant for the short-term future. The theses on the future of healthcare, which were generated in this study and which were validated by numerous experts, provide indications of future developments of overall requirements for medical school graduates. For example, when applied to the content of the "Clinical-Practical Skills" NKLM chapter, they largely validate the future relevance of developing practical skills while also providing indications for their further development as applied to the consensus statement.

Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-10-01

The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

Assessment of student interprofessional education (IPE) training for team-based geriatric home care: does IPE training change students' knowledge and attitudes?

PubMed

Reilly, Jo Marie; Aranda, María P; Segal-Gidan, Freddi; Halle, Ashley; Han, Phuu Pwint; Harris, Patricia; Jordan, Katie; Mulligan, Roseann; Resnik, Cheryl; Tsai, Kai-Ya; Williams, Brad; Cousineau, Michael R

2014-01-01

Our study assesses changes in students' knowledge and attitudes after participation in an interprofessional, team-based, geriatric home training program. Second-year medical, physician assistant, occupational therapy, social work, and physical therapy students; third-year pharmacy students; and fourth-year dental students were led by interprofessional faculty teams. Student participants were assessed before and after the curriculum using an interprofessional attitudes learning scale. Significant differences and positive data trends were noted at year-end. Our study suggests that early implementation, assessment, and standardization of years of student training is needed for optimal interprofessional geriatric learning. Additionally, alternative student assessment tools should be considered for future studies.

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

PubMed Central

Endres, Megan L.; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making. PMID:26042059

A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, David R.; McKinney, Daene C.; Lala, Jonathan M.; Byers, Alton C.; Watson, C. Scott

2016-08-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

The Observational Determination of the Primordial Helium Abundance: a Y2K Status Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skillman, Evan D.

I review observational progress and assess the current state of the determination of the primordial helium abundance, Yp. At present there are two determinations with non-overlapping errors. My impression is that the errors have been under-estimated in both studies. I review recent work on errors assessment and give suggestions for decreasing systematic errors in future studies.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Understanding the joint behavior of temperature and precipitation for climate change impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Qin, Yueyue

2017-07-01

The multiple downscaled scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic variables help better understand the interdependence of the two and thus, in turn, help in assessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we use ensemble of statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature from various models. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 global climate models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State University. The multi-model ensemble of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for dry and wet periods for 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Thereafter, copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables on multi-model ensemble data. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change in trends of said variables in future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. The joint distribution trends vary, but certainly positive, for dry and wet periods in sub-basins of CRB. Dry season, generally, is indicating a higher positive change in precipitation than temperature (as compared to historical) across sub-basins with wet season inferring otherwise. Probabilities of changes in future, as estimated from the joint distribution, indicate varied degrees and forms during dry season whereas the wet season is rather constant across all the sub-basins.

49 CFR 266.19 - Environmental impact.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... environmental assessment concludes that the future use significantly affects the quality of human environment... improvement assistance—(1) Environmental assessment. (i) When an applicant requests substitute service... shall: (A) Prepare an environmental assessment to determine whether the future use of the property will...

DEVELOPING STANDARDS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMICAL, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL STRESSORS THROUGH ASTM COMMITTEE E47: A PAST FOUNDATION OF PROVEN STANDARDS, A FUTURE OF GREAT POTENTIAL AND OPPORTUNITY

EPA Science Inventory

Development of standards associated with assessing the bioavailability of contaminants in sediment will be used as a case study for how standards have been developed through Committee E47. In 1987, Committee E47 established Subcommittee E47.03 on Sediment Assessment and Toxicity....

Towards an operational definition of pharmacy clinical competency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Charles Allen

The scope of pharmacy practice and the training of future pharmacists have undergone a strategic shift over the last few decades. The pharmacy profession recognizes greater pharmacist involvement in patient care activities. Towards this strategic objective, pharmacy schools are training future pharmacists to meet these new clinical demands. Pharmacy students have clerkships called Advanced Pharmacy Practice Experiences (APPEs), and these clerkships account for 30% of the professional curriculum. APPEs provide the only opportunity for students to refine clinical skills under the guidance of an experienced pharmacist. Nationwide, schools of pharmacy need to evaluate whether students have successfully completed APPEs and are ready treat patients. Schools are left to their own devices to develop assessment programs that demonstrate to the public and regulatory agencies, students are clinically competent prior to graduation. There is no widely accepted method to evaluate whether these assessment programs actually discriminate between the competent and non-competent students. The central purpose of this study is to demonstrate a rigorous method to evaluate the validity and reliability of APPE assessment programs. The method introduced in this study is applicable to a wide variety of assessment programs. To illustrate this method, the study evaluated new performance criteria with a novel rating scale. The study had two main phases. In the first phase, a Delphi panel was created to bring together expert opinions. Pharmacy schools nominated exceptional preceptors to join a Delphi panel. Delphi is a method to achieve agreement of complex issues among experts. The principal researcher recruited preceptors representing a variety of practice settings and geographical regions. The Delphi panel evaluated and refined the new performance criteria. In the second phase, the study produced a novel set of video vignettes that portrayed student performances based on recommendations of an expert panel. Pharmacy preceptors assessed the performances with the new performance criteria. Estimates of reliability and accuracy from preceptors' assessments can be used to establish benchmarks for future comparisons. Findings from the first phase suggested preceptors held a unique perspective, where APPE assessments are based in relevance to clinical activities. The second phase analyzed assessment results from pharmacy preceptors who watched the video simulations. Reliability results were higher for non-randomized compared to randomized video simulations. Accuracy results showed preceptors more readily identified high and low student performances compared to average students. These results indicated the need for pharmacy preceptor training in performance assessment. The study illustrated a rigorous method to evaluate the validity and reliability of APPE assessment instruments.

Long Term Perspective On Interstellar Flight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millis, M. G.

2017-12-01

The process and interim findings of a broad interstellar flight assessment is presented. In contrast to precursor mission studies, this assessment takes a longer view and also considers factors that have been underrepresented in prior studies. The goal is to chart a conceptual roadmap for interstellar flight development that takes all the factors into account and ultimately identifies which research options, today, might have the greatest overall impact on future progress. Three envisioned flight eras are examined, the "era of precursors," the "era of infrastructure," and the "unforeseeable future." Several influential factors have typically been missing from prior studies that will now be assessed; a) the impact of different, often implicit, motivations, b) the interdependency of infrastructure with vehicle design, c) the pace of different developments, and d) the enormous energy required for any interstellar mission. Regarding motivations for example, if the driving motivation is to launch soon, then the emphasis is on existing technologies. In contrast, if the motivation is the survival of humanity, then the emphasis would be on 'world ships.' Infrastructure considerations are included in a broader system-level context. Future infrastructure will support multiple in-space activities, not just one mission-vehicle development. Though it may be too difficult to successfully assess, the study will attempt to compare the rates of different developments, such as the pace of Earth-based astronomy, miniaturization, artificial intelligence, infrastructure development, transhumanism, and others. For example, what new information could be acquired after 30 years of further advances in astronomy compared to a space probe with current technology and a 30 year flight time? The final factor of the study is to assess the pace and risks of the enormous energy levels required for interstellar flight. To compare disparate methods, a set of 'meta measures' will be defined and calculated for all the different approaches. For example, rather than comparing performance in terms of rocket specific impulse or sail reflectivity, more general measures like mass, energy, power, time, and efficiency will be used.

The Role of Ambulatory Assessment in Psychological Science.

PubMed

Trull, Timothy J; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich

2014-12-01

We describe the current use and future promise of an innovative methodology, ambulatory assessment (AA), that can be used to investigate psychological, emotional, behavioral, and biological processes of individuals in their daily life. The term AA encompasses a wide range of methods used to study people in their natural environment, including momentary self-report, observational, and physiological. We emphasize applications of AA that integrate two or more of these methods, discuss the smart phone as a hub or access point for AA, and discuss future applications of AA methodology to the science of psychology. We pay particular attention to the development and application of Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) that can be implemented with smart phones and wireless physiological monitoring devices, and we close by discussing future applications of this approach to matters relevant to psychological science.

The development and preliminary psychometric evaluation of an attachment Implicit Association Task.

PubMed

Venta, Amanda; Jardin, Charles; Kalpakci, Allison; Sharp, Carla

2016-01-01

The importance of measuring attachment insecurity is underscored by a vast literature tying attachment insecurity to numerous psychological disorders. Self-report measures assess explicit attachment beliefs and experiences, while interview measures, like the Adult Attachment Interview, assess implicit internal working models about the self as worthy of care and others as reliable sources of care. The present study is a preliminary psychometric evaluation of a potentially cost-effective method of assessing implicit internal working models of attachment through the development of an Implicit Association Test (IAT). A racially diverse sample of 104 college females was administered Internet-based versions of three IATs (assessing views of the self, mother, and father) as well as self-report measures of attachment and interpersonal problems. Analyses were conducted to evaluate the (a) internal consistency of each task, (b) correlations among the tasks, (c) concurrent validity, and (d) convergent validity. Adequate internal consistency was noted and correlations among the three IATs were significant. No significant associations were observed between the explicit self-report measures of attachment and the IATs. Two primary areas for future research are discussed. First, future research should utilize an implicit attachment measure alongside an IAT. Second, future research should reevaluate the IAT stimuli used.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

Personality Measurement and Assessment in Large Panel Surveys*

PubMed Central

Roberts, Brent; Jackson, Joshua J.; Duckworth, Angela L.; Von Culin, Katherine

2013-01-01

Personality tests are being added to large panel studies with increasing regularity, such as the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). To facilitate the inclusion and interpretation of these tests, we provide some general background on personality psychology, personality assessment, and the validity of personality tests. In this review, we provide background on definitions of personality, the strengths and weaknesses of the self-report approaches to personality testing typically used in large panel studies, and the validity of personality tests for three outcomes: genetics, income, and health. We conclude with recommendations on how to improve personality assessment in future panel studies. PMID:23503719

RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

Treesearch

John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1994-01-01

In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

Development of custom measurement system for biomechanical evaluation of independent wheelchair transfers.

PubMed

Koontz, Alicia M; Lin, Yen-Sheng; Kankipati, Padmaja; Boninger, Michael L; Cooper, Rory A

2011-01-01

This study describes a new custom measurement system designed to investigate the biomechanics of sitting-pivot wheelchair transfers and assesses the reliability of selected biomechanical variables. Variables assessed include horizontal and vertical reaction forces underneath both hands and three-dimensional trunk, shoulder, and elbow range of motion. We examined the reliability of these measures between 5 consecutive transfer trials for 5 subjects with spinal cord injury and 12 nondisabled subjects while they performed a self-selected sitting pivot transfer from a wheelchair to a level bench. A majority of the biomechanical variables demonstrated moderate to excellent reliability (r > 0.6). The transfer measurement system recorded reliable and valid biomechanical data for future studies of sitting-pivot wheelchair transfers.We recommend a minimum of five transfer trials to obtain a reliable measure of transfer technique for future studies.

Educating Future Health Care Professionals About Cybercivility: Needs Assessment Study.

PubMed

De Gagne, Jennie C; Conklin, Jamie L; Yamane, Sandra S; Kang, Hee Sun; Hyun, Myung-Sun

2017-12-04

As misbehaviors online in higher education have been widely addressed in recent research, the discourse on cyberincivility has become a contemporary issue in health professions education. However, studies regarding cybercivility, particularly from an interprofessional education standpoint, are few. This study assessed the knowledge, experience, and perceptions about cyberincivility among students in 4 health care disciplines. Their preferred means of learning about cybercivility and the perceived benefits of such education are also discussed.

Improving Assistive Technology Service by Using 3D Printing: Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Watanabe, Takashi; Hatakeyama, Takuro; Tomiita, Mitsuru

2015-01-01

Assistive technology services are essential for adapting assistive devices to the individual needs of users with disabilities. In this study, we attempted to apply three-dimensional (3D) printing technology to three actual cases, and to study its use, effectiveness, and future applications. We assessed the usefulness of 3D printing technology by categorizing its utilization after reviewing the outcomes of these case studies. In future work, we aim to gather additional case studies and derive information on using 3D printing technology that will enable its effective application in the process of assistive technology services.

Are predictors of future suicide attempts and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempts shared or distinct: a 12-month prospective study among patients with depressive disorders.

PubMed

Chan, Lai Fong; Shamsul, Azhar Shah; Maniam, Thambu

2014-12-30

Our study aimed to examine the interplay between clinical and social predictors of future suicide attempt and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempt in depressive disorders. Sixty-six Malaysian inpatients with a depressive disorder were assessed at index admission and within 1 year for suicide attempt, suicidal ideation, depression severity, life event changes, treatment history and relevant clinical and socio-demographic factors. One-fifth of suicidal ideators transitioned to a future suicide attempt. All future attempters (12/66) had prior ideation and 83% of attempters had a prior attempt. The highest risk for transitioning from ideation to attempt was 5 months post-discharge. Single predictor models showed that previous psychiatric hospitalization and ideation severity were shared predictors of future attempt and ideation to attempt transition. Substance use disorders (especially alcohol) predicted future attempt and approached significance for the transition process. Low socio-economic status predicted the transition process while major personal injury/illness predicted future suicide attempt. Past suicide attempt, subjective depression severity and medication compliance predicted only future suicide attempt. The absence of prior suicide attempt did not eliminate the risk of future attempt. Given the limited sample, future larger studies on mechanisms underlying the interactions of such predictors are needed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Vulnerability under Uncertainty in the Colorado River Basin: The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerla, C.; Adams, P.; Butler, A.; Nowak, K.; Prairie, J. R.

2013-12-01

Spanning parts of the seven states, of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming, the Colorado River is one of the most critical sources of water in the western United States. Colorado River allocations exceed the long-term supply and since the 1950s, there have been a number of years when the annual water use in the Colorado River Basin exceeded the yield. The Basin is entering its second decade of drought conditions which brings challenges that will only be compounded if projections of climate change are realized. It was against this backdrop that the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study was conducted. The Study's objectives are to define current and future imbalances in the Basin over the next 50 years and to develop and analyze adaptation and mitigation strategies to resolve those imbalances. Long-term planning in the Basin involves the integration of uncertainty with respect to a changing climate and other uncertainties such as future demand and how policies may be modified to adapt to changing reliability. The Study adopted a scenario planning approach to address this uncertainty in which thousands of scenarios were developed to encompass a wide range of plausible future water supply and demand conditions. Using Reclamation's long-term planning model, the Colorado River Simulation System, the reliability of the system to meet Basin resource needs under these future conditions was projected both with and without additional future adaptation strategies in place. System reliability metrics were developed in order to define system vulnerabilities, the conditions that lead to those vulnerabilities, and sign posts to indicate if the system is approaching a vulnerable state. Options and strategies that reduce these vulnerabilities and improve system reliability were explored through the development of portfolios. Four portfolios, each with different management strategies, were analyzed to assess their effectiveness at reducing system vulnerabilities and the improving the resiliency of the Basin to vulnerable conditions. The Study is the most comprehensive long-term assessment to date of the Basin and it confirmed that without action, the Colorado River system will become increasingly challenged to sustain the communities and resources that rely on its water supply. The Study was conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation and its consultant team (CH2M Hill, Black & Veatch, and the RAND Corporation) and the seven Colorado River Basin States, in collaboration with a broad range of stakeholders throughout the Basin. The Study's strong technical foundation forms a basis from which important discussions can begin regarding possible actions to resolve future supply and demand imbalances in order to help ensure the sustainability of the Colorado River system. This talk will provide an overview of the Study's approach and findings, with a focus on the Study's assessment and characterization of vulnerability under uncertainty.

Moving toward a standard for spinal fusion outcomes assessment.

PubMed

Blount, Kevin J; Krompinger, W Jay; Maljanian, Rose; Browner, Bruce D

2002-02-01

Previous spinal fusion outcomes assessment studies have been complicated by inconsistencies in evaluative criteria and consequent variations in results. As a result, a general consensus is lacking on how to achieve comprehensive outcomes assessment for spinal fusion surgeries. The purpose of this article is to report the most validated and frequently used assessment measures to facilitate comparable outcomes studies in the future. Twenty-seven spinal fusion outcomes studies published between 1990 and 2000 were retrospectively reviewed. Study characteristics such as design, evaluative measures, and assessment tools were recorded and analyzed. Based on the reviewed literature, an outcomes assessment model is proposed including the Short Form-36 Health Survey, the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire, the North American Spine Society Patient Satisfaction Index, the Prolo Economic Scale, a 0-10 analog pain scale, medication use, radiographically assessed fusion status, and a generalized complication rate.

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence.

PubMed

Mac Giollabhui, Naoise; Nielsen, Johanna; Seidman, Sam; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2018-01-05

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12-13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.

Virtual reality-based simulators for spine surgery: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pfandler, Michael; Lazarovici, Marc; Stefan, Philipp; Wucherer, Patrick; Weigl, Matthias

2017-09-01

Virtual reality (VR)-based simulators offer numerous benefits and are very useful in assessing and training surgical skills. Virtual reality-based simulators are standard in some surgical subspecialties, but their actual use in spinal surgery remains unclear. Currently, only technical reviews of VR-based simulators are available for spinal surgery. Thus, we performed a systematic review that examined the existing research on VR-based simulators in spinal procedures. We also assessed the quality of current studies evaluating VR-based training in spinal surgery. Moreover, we wanted to provide a guide for future studies evaluating VR-based simulators in this field. This is a systematic review of the current scientific literature regarding VR-based simulation in spinal surgery. Five data sources were systematically searched to identify relevant peer-reviewed articles regarding virtual, mixed, or augmented reality-based simulators in spinal surgery. A qualitative data synthesis was performed with particular attention to evaluation approaches and outcomes. Additionally, all included studies were appraised for their quality using the Medical Education Research Study Quality Instrument (MERSQI) tool. The initial review identified 476 abstracts and 63 full texts were then assessed by two reviewers. Finally, 19 studies that examined simulators for the following procedures were selected: pedicle screw placement, vertebroplasty, posterior cervical laminectomy and foraminotomy, lumbar puncture, facet joint injection, and spinal needle insertion and placement. These studies had a low-to-medium methodological quality with a MERSQI mean score of 11.47 out of 18 (standard deviation=1.81). This review described the current state and applications of VR-based simulator training and assessment approaches in spinal procedures. Limitations, strengths, and future advancements of VR-based simulators for training and assessment in spinal surgery were explored. Higher-quality studies with patient-related outcome measures are needed. To establish further adaptation of VR-based simulators in spinal surgery, future evaluations need to improve the study quality, apply long-term study designs, and examine non-technical skills, as well as multidisciplinary team training. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

PubMed

Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

2015-01-15

SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case study basins and to assist future review of priority pollutants under the WFD as well as potential abatement options. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pilot evaluation of a media literacy program for tobacco prevention targeting early adolescents shows mixed results.

PubMed

Kaestle, Christine E; Chen, Yvonnes; Estabrooks, Paul A; Zoellner, Jamie; Bigby, Brandon

2013-01-01

The purpose of this pilot study was to assess the impact of media literacy for tobacco prevention for youth delivered through a community site. A randomized pretest-posttest evaluation design with matched-contact treatment and control conditions. The pilot study was delivered through the YMCA in a lower-income suburban and rural area of Southwest Virginia, a region long tied, both economically and culturally, to the tobacco industry. Children ages 8 to 14 (76% white, 58% female) participated in the study (n = 38). The intervention was an antismoking media literacy program (five 1-hour lessons) compared with a matched-contact creative writing control program. General media literacy, three domains of tobacco-specific media literacy ("authors and audiences," "messages and meanings," and "representation and reality"), tobacco attitudes, and future expectations were assessed. Multiple regression modeling assessed the impact of the intervention, controlling for pretest measures, age, and sex. General media literacy and tobacco-specific "authors and audiences" media literacy improved significantly for treatment compared with control (p < .05); results for other tobacco-specific media literacy measures and for tobacco attitudes were not significant. Future expectations of smoking increased significantly for treatment participants ages 10 and younger (p < .05). Mixed results indicated that improvements in media literacy are accompanied by an increase in future expectations to smoke for younger children.

Biofuel Feedstock Assessment For Selected Countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, Keith L; Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Wolfe, Amy K

2008-02-01

Findings from biofuel feedstock production assessments and projections of future supply are presented and discussed. The report aims to improve capabilities to assess the degree to which imported biofuel could contribute to meeting future U.S. targets to reduce dependence on imported oil. The study scope was focused to meet time and resource requirements. A screening process identified Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, India, Mexico, and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) region for initial analysis, given their likely role in future feedstock supply relevant to U.S. markets. Supply curves for selected feedstocks in these countries are projected for 2012, 2017 andmore » 2027. The supply functions, along with calculations to reflect estimated supplies available for export and/or biofuel production, were provided to DOE for use in a broader energy market allocation study. Potential cellulosic supplies from crop and forestry residues and perennials were also estimated for 2017 and 2027. The analysis identified capacity to potentially double or triple feedstock production by 2017 in some cases. A majority of supply growth is derived from increasing the area cultivated (especially sugarcane in Brazil). This is supplemented by improving yields and farming practices. Most future supplies of corn and wheat are projected to be allocated to food and feed. Larger shares of future supplies of sugarcane, soybean and palm oil production will be available for export or biofuel. National policies are catalyzing investments in biofuel industries to meet targets for fuel blending that generally fall in the 5-10% range. Social and environmental concerns associated with rapid expansion of feedstock production are considered. If the 2017 projected feedstock supply calculated as 'available' for export or biofuel were converted to fuel, it would represent the equivalent of about 38 billion gallons of gasoline. Sugarcane and bagasse dominate the available supply, representing 64% of the total. Among the nations studied, Brazil is the source of about two-thirds of available supplies, followed distantly by Argentina (12%), India and the CBI region.« less

Biofuel Feedstock Assessment for Selected Countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, K.L.; Oladosu, G.A.; Wolfe, A.K.

2008-02-18

Findings from biofuel feedstock production assessments and projections of future supply are presented and discussed. The report aims to improve capabilities to assess the degree to which imported biofuel could contribute to meeting future U.S. targets to reduce dependence on imported oil. The study scope was focused to meet time and resource requirements. A screening process identified Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, India, Mexico, and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) region for initial analysis, given their likely role in future feedstock supply relevant to U.S. markets. Supply curves for selected feedstocks in these countries are projected for 2012, 2017 andmore » 2027. The supply functions, along with calculations to reflect estimated supplies available for export and/or biofuel production, were provided to DOE for use in a broader energy market allocation study. Potential cellulosic supplies from crop and forestry residues and perennials were also estimated for 2017 and 2027. The analysis identified capacity to potentially double or triple feedstock production by 2017 in some cases. A majority of supply growth is derived from increasing the area cultivated (especially sugarcane in Brazil). This is supplemented by improving yields and farming practices. Most future supplies of corn and wheat are projected to be allocated to food and feed. Larger shares of future supplies of sugarcane, soybean and palm oil production will be available for export or biofuel. National policies are catalyzing investments in biofuel industries to meet targets for fuel blending that generally fall in the 5-10% range. Social and environmental concerns associated with rapid expansion of feedstock production are considered. If the 2017 projected feedstock supply calculated as ‘available’ for export or biofuel were converted to fuel, it would represent the equivalent of about 38 billion gallons of gasoline. Sugarcane and bagasse dominate the available supply, representing 64% of the total. Among the nations studied, Brazil is the source of about two-thirds of available supplies, followed distantly by Argentina (12%), India and the CBI region.« less

Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) withing a GIS modeling environme...

Relation between Time Perspective and Delay Discounting: A Literature Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teuscher, Ursina; Mitchell, Suzanne H.

2011-01-01

In this article, we examine the relation between delay discounting and future time perspective by reviewing how these concepts have been measured and quantified in order to assess their conceptual similarities. The extent to which the different measures are empirically related is reviewed by describing studies that have assessed both constructs…

Diagnostic Assessment and Treatment of Reading Difficulties: A Case Study of Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oviedo, Paula Outon; Gonzalez, Rebeca Abal

2013-01-01

Dyslexia is a specific learning disability in reading and writing, which requires adequate early intervention to prevent future school failure. We describe the diagnostic assessment of a 7-year-old boy labelled "dyslexic", the evaluation of his family, social, medical, developmental, and academic status as a preliminary for the design…

Wave of the Future?: Integrating IR, Outcomes Assessment, Planning, Program Review, and Accreditation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leimer, Christina

2010-01-01

Integrating institutional research, outcomes assessment, program review, strategic planning, and accreditation can be a powerful means of creating a culture of evidence-based decision making and continuous improvement. This study examined how this "integrated" model is organized in practice, how such offices began, why this approach was chosen,…

Communication Proficiency and Future Training Needs of the Female Professional: Self-Assessment versus Supervisors' Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staley, Constance Courtney; Shockley-Zalabak, Pamela

A self-administered communication proficiency and training survey was completed by 122 female professionals and 80 of their direct supervisors in a study that investigated the perceptions supervisors have of their female employees' communication proficiency. The questionnaire for the female professionals asked for assessment of their present level…

Brief Report: Self-Based and Mechanical-Based Future Thinking in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marini, A.; Ferretti, F.; Chiera, A.; Magni, R.; Adornetti, I.; Nicchiarelli, S.; Vicari, S.; Valeri, G.

2016-01-01

This brief report is a partial replication of the study by Jackson and Atance ("J Dev Disabil" 14:40-45, 2008) assessing nonverbal Self-based and Mechanical-based future thinking (FT) in children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). In a first step, these tasks were administered to 30 children with ASD. The two Self-based tasks were then…

Identity and Future Concerns among Adolescents from Italy, Turkey and Germany: Intra- and Between-Cultural Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haid, Marja-Lena; Seiffge-Krenke, Inge; Molinar, Roberta; Ciairano, Silvia; Guney Karaman, Neslihan; Cok, Figen

2010-01-01

The present study investigated stress perception and coping styles in 3259 Turkish, Italian, and German adolescents with a mean age of 14.97 years (SD = 1.74). The adolescents filled in self-report measures assessing stress perception and coping styles in two problem domains: future and identity. In order to allow for analyses of intra-country and…

Predicting Future Reconviction in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: The Predictive Efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Nicola S.; Fitzgerald, Suzanne; Taylor, John; MacCulloch, Malcolm J.; Snowden, Robert J.

2007-01-01

Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that…

Recent victimization increases risk for violence in justice-involved persons with mental illness.

PubMed

Sadeh, Naomi; Binder, Renée L; McNiel, Dale E

2014-04-01

A large body of research has examined relationships between distal experiences of victimization and the likelihood of engaging in violence later in life. Less is known about the influence of recent violent victimization on risk for violence perpetration. To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine prospectively whether recent victimization in adulthood increases the risk of future violence. Specifically, the present study assessed the incremental validity of recent violent victimization in the prediction of future violence in a sample of justice-involved adults with serious mental illness. The study examined (a) whether recent experiences of violent victimization (i.e., within 6 months of the baseline assessment) predicted a greater likelihood of perpetrating violence in the next year, and (b) whether inclusion of recent victimization enhanced the predictive validity of a model of violence risk in a sample of justice-involved adults with severe mental illness (N = 167). Hierarchical logistic regression analyses indicated that exposure to recent violent victimization at the baseline assessment predicted a greater likelihood of engaging in violent behavior during the year follow-up period. Additionally, recent exposure to violence at the baseline assessment continued to explain a significant amount of variance in a model of future violence perpetration above the variance accounted for by well-established violence risk factors. Taken together, the findings suggest that recent victimization is important to consider in understanding and evaluating risk of violence by persons with mental disorders who are involved in the criminal justice system. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Suicide Risk Associated with Experience of Violence and Impulsivity in Alcohol Dependent Patients.

PubMed

Khemiri, Lotfi; Jokinen, Jussi; Runeson, Bo; Jayaram-Lindström, Nitya

2016-01-19

Alcohol dependence (AD) and aggression-impulsivity are both associated with increased suicide risk. There is a need to evaluate clinical tools in order to improve suicide risk assessment of AD patients. The present study consisted of 95 individuals with a diagnosis of AD, consecutively admitted for addiction treatment, compared with 95 healthy controls. Suicidal risk was assessed together with exposure of violence and impulsivity. AD patients reported significantly higher rates of exposure to violence in childhood, as measured by the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), compared to HC. Within the AD group, individuals with history of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior reported higher levels of violence experience compared to AD individuals without such history. AD patients with previous suicidal ideation scored higher on self-reported impulsivity as assessed by the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS). Our main finding was that experience of trauma and expression of violent behavior, coupled with increased impulsivity are associated with an elevated suicide risk in AD patients. Future longitudinal studies assessing these traits are needed to evaluate their potential role in identifying AD patients at risk of future suicide.

Suicide Risk Associated with Experience of Violence and Impulsivity in Alcohol Dependent Patients

PubMed Central

Khemiri, Lotfi; Jokinen, Jussi; Runeson, Bo; Jayaram-Lindström, Nitya

2016-01-01

Alcohol dependence (AD) and aggression-impulsivity are both associated with increased suicide risk. There is a need to evaluate clinical tools in order to improve suicide risk assessment of AD patients. The present study consisted of 95 individuals with a diagnosis of AD, consecutively admitted for addiction treatment, compared with 95 healthy controls. Suicidal risk was assessed together with exposure of violence and impulsivity. AD patients reported significantly higher rates of exposure to violence in childhood, as measured by the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), compared to HC. Within the AD group, individuals with history of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior reported higher levels of violence experience compared to AD individuals without such history. AD patients with previous suicidal ideation scored higher on self-reported impulsivity as assessed by the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS). Our main finding was that experience of trauma and expression of violent behavior, coupled with increased impulsivity are associated with an elevated suicide risk in AD patients. Future longitudinal studies assessing these traits are needed to evaluate their potential role in identifying AD patients at risk of future suicide. PMID:26784730

Simulation-Based Learning Strategies to Teach Undergraduate Students Basic Surgical Skills: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Theodoulou, Iakovos; Nicolaides, Marios; Athanasiou, Thanos; Papalois, Apostolos; Sideris, Michail

2018-02-16

We aimed to identify and critically appraise all literature surrounding simulation-based learning (SBL) courses, to assess their relevance as tools for undergraduate surgical education, and create a design framework targeted at standardizing future SBL. We performed a systematic review of the literature using a specific keyword strategy to search at MEDLINE database. Of the 2371 potentially eligible titles, 472 were shortlisted and only 40 explored active interventions in undergraduate medical education. Of those, 20 were conducted in the United States, 9 in Europe and 11 in the rest of the world. Nineteen studies assessed the effectiveness of SBL by comparing students' attributes before and after interventions, 1 study assessed a new tool of surgical assessment and 16 studies evaluated SBL courses from the students' perspectives. Of those 40 studies, 12 used dry laboratory, 7 wet laboratory, 12 mixed, and 9 cadaveric SBL interventions. The extent to which positive results were obtained from dry, wet, mixed, and cadaveric laboratories were 75%, 57%, 92%, and 100%, respectively. Consequently, the SBL design framework was devised, providing a foundation upon which future SBL interventions can be designed such that learning outcomes are optimized. SBL is an important step in surgical education, investing in a safer and more efficient generation of surgeons. Standardization of these efforts can be accelerated with SBL design framework, a comprehensive guide to designing future interventions for basic surgical training at the undergraduate level. Copyright © 2018 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methodological issues and recommendations for systematic reviews of prognostic studies: an example from cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Dretzke, Janine; Ensor, Joie; Bayliss, Sue; Hodgkinson, James; Lordkipanidzé, Marie; Riley, Richard D; Fitzmaurice, David; Moore, David

2014-12-03

Prognostic factors are associated with the risk of future health outcomes in individuals with a particular health condition. The prognostic ability of such factors is increasingly being assessed in both primary research and systematic reviews. Systematic review methodology in this area is continuing to evolve, reflected in variable approaches to key methodological aspects. The aim of this article was to (i) explore and compare the methodology of systematic reviews of prognostic factors undertaken for the same clinical question, (ii) to discuss implications for review findings, and (iii) to present recommendations on what might be considered to be 'good practice' approaches. The sample was comprised of eight systematic reviews addressing the same clinical question, namely whether 'aspirin resistance' (a potential prognostic factor) has prognostic utility relative to future vascular events in patients on aspirin therapy for secondary prevention. A detailed comparison of methods around study identification, study selection, quality assessment, approaches to analysis, and reporting of findings was undertaken and the implications discussed. These were summarised into key considerations that may be transferable to future systematic reviews of prognostic factors. Across systematic reviews addressing the same clinical question, there were considerable differences in the numbers of studies identified and overlap between included studies, which could only partially be explained by different study eligibility criteria. Incomplete reporting and differences in terminology within primary studies hampered study identification and selection process across reviews. Quality assessment was highly variable and only one systematic review considered a checklist for studies of prognostic questions. There was inconsistency between reviews in approaches towards analysis, synthesis, addressing heterogeneity and reporting of results. Different methodological approaches may ultimately affect the findings and interpretation of systematic reviews of prognostic research, with implications for clinical decision-making.

Promoting Well-Being: The Contribution of Emotional Intelligence

PubMed Central

Di Fabio, Annamaria; Kenny, Maureen E.

2016-01-01

Adopting a primary prevention perspective, this study examines competencies with the potential to enhance well-being and performance among future workers. More specifically, the contributions of ability-based and trait models of emotional intelligence (EI), assessed through well-established measures, to indices of hedonic and eudaimonic well-being were examined for a sample of 157 Italian high school students. The Mayer–Salovey–Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test was used to assess ability-based EI, the Bar-On Emotional Intelligence Inventory and the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire were used to assess trait EI, the Positive and Negative Affect Scale and the Satisfaction With Life Scale were used to assess hedonic well-being, and the Meaningful Life Measure was used to assess eudaimonic well-being. The results highlight the contributions of trait EI in explaining both hedonic and eudaimonic well-being, after controlling for the effects of fluid intelligence and personality traits. Implications for further research and intervention regarding future workers are discussed. PMID:27582713

Promoting Well-Being: The Contribution of Emotional Intelligence.

PubMed

Di Fabio, Annamaria; Kenny, Maureen E

2016-01-01

Adopting a primary prevention perspective, this study examines competencies with the potential to enhance well-being and performance among future workers. More specifically, the contributions of ability-based and trait models of emotional intelligence (EI), assessed through well-established measures, to indices of hedonic and eudaimonic well-being were examined for a sample of 157 Italian high school students. The Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test was used to assess ability-based EI, the Bar-On Emotional Intelligence Inventory and the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire were used to assess trait EI, the Positive and Negative Affect Scale and the Satisfaction With Life Scale were used to assess hedonic well-being, and the Meaningful Life Measure was used to assess eudaimonic well-being. The results highlight the contributions of trait EI in explaining both hedonic and eudaimonic well-being, after controlling for the effects of fluid intelligence and personality traits. Implications for further research and intervention regarding future workers are discussed.

Assessment of Emerging Networks to Support Future NASA Space Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Younes, Badri; Chang, Susan; Berman, Ted; Burns, Mark; LaFontaine, Richard; Lease, Robert

1998-01-01

Various issues associated with assessing emerging networks to support future NASA space operations are presented in viewgraph form. Specific topics include: 1) Emerging commercial satellite systems; 2) NASA LEO satellite support through commercial systems; 3) Communications coverage, user terminal assessment and regulatory assessment; 4) NASA LEO missions overview; and 5) Simulation assumptions and results.

The Future Value of Serious Games for Assessment: Where Do We Go Now?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Klerk, Sebastiaan; Kato, Pamela M.

2017-01-01

Game-based assessments will most likely be an increasing part of testing programs in future generations because they provide promising possibilities for more valid and reliable measurement of students' skills as compared to the traditional methods of assessment like paper-and-pencil tests or performance-based assessments. The current status of…

Do Preschoolers Save to Benefit Their Future Selves?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Metcalf, Jennifer L.; Atance, Cristina M.

2011-01-01

Using a new paradigm for measuring children's saving behaviors involving two marble games differing in desirability, we assessed whether 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds saved marbles for future use, saved increasingly on a second trial, saved increasingly with age, and were sensitive to the relative value of future rewards. We also assessed whether…

Reading Research and Practice: Indian Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joshi, R. Malatesha; Nakamura, Pooja R.; Singh, Nandini Chatterjee

2017-01-01

The authors outline the basic structure of akshara, the basic unit of writing in Indic writing systems used widely in South and Southeast Asia; present preliminary studies relating to reading, assessment, and instruction of akshara; and outline recommendations for future studies.

Predicting future violence among individuals with psychopathy.

PubMed

Coid, Jeremy W; Ullrich, Simone; Kallis, Constantinos

2013-11-01

Structured risk assessment aims to help clinicians classify offenders according to likelihood of future violent and criminal behaviour. We investigated how confident clinicians can be using three commonly used instruments (HCR-20, VRAG, OGRS-II) in individuals with different diagnoses. Moderate to good predictive accuracy for future violence was achieved for released prisoners with no mental disorder, low to moderate for clinical syndromes and personality disorder, but accuracy was no better than chance for individuals with psychopathy. Comprehensive diagnostic assessment should precede an assessment of risk. Risk assessment instruments cannot be relied upon when managing public risk from individuals with psychopathy.

Incorporation of future costs in health economic analysis publications: current situation and recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Gros, Blanca; Soto Álvarez, Javier; Ángel Casado, Miguel

2015-06-01

Future costs are not usually included in economic evaluations. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of published economic analyses that incorporate future costs. A systematic review was conducted of economic analyses published from 2008 to 2013 in three general health economics journals: PharmacoEconomics, Value in Health and the European Journal of Health Economics. A total of 192 articles met the inclusion criteria, 94 of them (49.0%) incorporated future related medical costs, 9 (4.2%) also included future unrelated medical costs and none of them included future nonmedical costs. The percentage of articles including future costs increased from 2008 (30.8%) to 2013 (70.8%), and no differences were detected between the three journals. All relevant costs for the perspective considered should be included in economic evaluations, including related or unrelated, direct or indirect future costs. It is also advisable that pharmacoEconomic guidelines are adapted in this sense.

Independent Assessment of Technology Characterizations to Support the Biomass Program Annual State-of-Technology Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, B.

2011-03-01

This report discusses an investigation that addressed two thermochemical conversion pathways for the production of liquid fuels and addressed the steps to the process, the technology providers, a method for determining the state of technology and a tool to continuously assess the state of technology. This report summarizes the findings of the investigation as well as recommendations for improvements for future studies.

Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

2017-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

Explaining why larks are future-oriented and owls are present-oriented: self-control mediates the chronotype-time perspective relationships.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L; Schwarzenthal, Miriam

2014-05-01

Recent studies provide evidence for the chronotype-time perspective relationships. Larks are more future-oriented and owls are more present-oriented. The present study expands this initial research by examining whether the associations are replicable with other time perspective measures, and whether self-control explains the observed relationships. Chronotype was assessed with the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire and the basic associations with the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory were replicated in a sample of 142 New Zealand students, but not with other measures. Self-control mediated the influence of morningness on both future time perspective and delay of gratification. Implications of the findings are discussed.

78 FR 43147 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review (SEDAR); Public Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-19

..., estimates biological benchmarks, projects future population conditions, and recommends research and... the Assessment webinars are as follows: 1. Participants will employ assessment models to evaluate stock status, estimate population benchmarks and management criteria, and project future conditions. The...

The development and validation of the Youth Actuarial Care Needs Assessment Tool for Non-Offenders (Y-ACNAT-NO).

PubMed

Assink, Mark; van der Put, Claudia E; Oort, Frans J; Stams, Geert Jan J M

2015-03-04

In The Netherlands, police officers not only come into contact with juvenile offenders, but also with a large number of juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect (i.e., juvenile non-offenders). Until now, no valid and reliable instrument was available that can be used by Dutch police officers for estimating the risk for future care needs of juvenile non-offenders. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Care Needs Assessment Tool for Non-Offenders (Y-ACNAT-NO) was developed for predicting the risk for future care needs that consisted of (1) a future supervision order as imposed by a juvenile court judge and (2) future worrisome incidents involving child abuse, domestic violence/strife, and/or sexual offensive behavior at the juvenile's living address (i.e., problems in the child-rearing environment). Police records of 3,200 juveniles were retrieved from the Dutch police registration system after which the sample was randomly split in a construction (n = 1,549) and validation sample (n = 1,651). The Y-ACNAT-NO was developed by performing an Exhaustive CHAID analysis using the construction sample. The predictive validity of the instrument was examined in the validation sample by calculating several performance indicators that assess discrimination and calibration. The CHAID output yielded an instrument that consisted of six variables and eleven different risk groups. The risk for future care needs ranged from 0.06 in the lowest risk group to 0.83 in the highest risk group. The AUC value in the validation sample was .764 (95% CI [.743, .784]) and Sander's calibration score indicated an average assessment error of 3.74% in risk estimates per risk category. The Y-ACNAT-NO is the first instrument that can be used by Dutch police officers for estimating the risk for future care needs of juvenile non-offenders. The predictive validity of the Y-ACNAT-NO in terms of discrimination and calibration was sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument when a decision is needed about referring a juvenile for further assessment of care needs.

Do Executive Functions Predict Binge-Drinking Patterns? Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Bø, Ragnhild; Billieux, Joël; Gjerde, Line C.; Eilertsen, Espen M.; Landrø, Nils I.

2017-01-01

Background: Impairments in executive functions (EFs) are related to binge drinking in young adulthood, but research on how EFs influence future binge drinking is lacking. The aim of the current report is therefore to investigate the association between various EFs and later severity of, and change in, binge drinking over a prolonged period during young adulthood. Methods: At baseline, 121 students reported on their alcohol habits (Alcohol use disorder identification test; Alcohol use questionnaire). Concurrently, EFs [working memory, reversal, set-shifting, response inhibition, response monitoring and decision-making (with ambiguity and implicit risk)] were assessed. Eighteen months later, information on alcohol habits for 103 of the participants were gathered. Data were analyzed by means of multilevel regression modeling. Results: Future severity of binge drinking was uniquely predicted by performance on the Information sampling task, assessing risky decision-making (β = -1.86, 95% CI: -3.69, -0.04). None of the study variables predicted severity or change in binge drinking. Conclusion: Future severity of binge drinking was associated with making risky decisions in the prospect for gain, suggesting reward hypersensitivity. Future studies should aim at clarifying whether there is a causal association between decision-making style and binge drinking. Performance on all executive tasks was unrelated to change in binge drinking patterns; however, the finding was limited by overall small changes, and needs to be confirmed with longer follow-up periods. PMID:28408897

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

Computational aerodynamics development and outlook /Dryden Lecture in Research for 1979/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, D. R.

1979-01-01

Some past developments and current examples of computational aerodynamics are briefly reviewed. An assessment is made of the requirements on future computer memory and speed imposed by advanced numerical simulations, giving emphasis to the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations and to turbulent eddy simulations. Experimental scales of turbulence structure are used to determine the mesh spacings required to adequately resolve turbulent energy and shear. Assessment also is made of the changing market environment for developing future large computers, and of the projections of micro-electronics memory and logic technology that affect future computer capability. From the two assessments, estimates are formed of the future time scale in which various advanced types of aerodynamic flow simulations could become feasible. Areas of research judged especially relevant to future developments are noted.

Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

2016-01-01

To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Motivation to serve in the military influences vulnerability to future posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Kaplan, Zeev; Weiser, Mark; Reichenberg, Abraham; Rabinowitz, Jonathan; Caspi, Asaf; Bodner, Ehud; Zohar, Joseph

2002-01-31

High motivation and belief in a cause have been reported to be protective against posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), while below-average intellectual functioning and poor educational achievements have been reported to increase vulnerability to PTSD. The main goal of this study was to assess the effect of education, and intellectual and behavioral functioning on the risk for future PTSD. Data collected before exposure to trauma, on intellectual and behavioral functioning, and educational achievements of 901 male Israeli adolescents who had performed pre-induction screening tests by the Israeli Draft Board, and were later diagnosed with PTSD, were compared with a control group of adolescents who were not later diagnosed with PTSD. Future PTSD patients had significantly lower intelligence, fewer years of formal education and lower scores on a scale assessing motivation to serve in the military, in comparison with the control group, with effect sizes (ES) ranging from 0.14-0.34. In contrast, future PTSD patients scored significantly higher on a scale assessing social functioning, ES=0.13. However, when controlling for the differences in motivation to serve, all of these differences disappeared. In this cohort, although slightly below average intellectual functioning and formal education, and better social functioning, independently increased vulnerability to suffer from PTSD, these associations disappeared when the future PTSD patients' lower motivation to serve in the military was included in the analysis. This suggests that low motivation to serve in the military might increase vulnerability for PTSD.

Dietary Acrylamide and Human Cancer: A Systematic Review of Literature

PubMed Central

Nagy, Tim R.; Barnes, Stephen; Groopman, John

2014-01-01

Cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States, and the numbers of cases are expected to continue to rise worldwide. Cancer prevention strategies are crucial for reducing the cancer burden. The carcinogenic potential of dietary acrylamide exposure from cooked foods is unknown. Acrylamide is a by-product of the common Maillard reaction where reducing sugars (i.e., fructose and glucose) react with the amino acid, asparagine. Based on the evidence of acrylamide carcinogenicity in animals, the International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified acrylamide as a group 2A carcinogen for humans. Since the discovery of acrylamide in foods in 2002, a number of studies have explored its potential as a human carcinogen. This paper outlines a systematic review of dietary acrylamide and human cancer, acrylamide exposure and internal dose, exposure assessment methods in the epidemiologic studies, existing data gaps, and future directions. A majority of the studies reported no statistically significant association between dietary acrylamide intake and various cancers, and few studies reported increased risk for renal, endometrial, and ovarian cancers; however, the exposure assessment has been inadequate leading to potential misclassification or underestimation of exposure. Future studies with improved dietary acrylamide exposure assessment are encouraged. PMID:24875401

Drinking water studies: a review on heavy metal, application of biomarker and health risk assessment (a special focus in Malaysia).

PubMed

Ab Razak, Nurul Hafiza; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Hashim, Zailina

2015-12-01

Malaysia has abundant sources of drinking water from river and groundwater. However, rapid developments have deteriorated quality of drinking water sources in Malaysia. Heavy metal studies in terms of drinking water, applications of health risk assessment and bio-monitoring in Malaysia were reviewed from 2003 to 2013. Studies on heavy metal in drinking water showed the levels are under the permissible limits as suggested by World Health Organization and Malaysian Ministry of Health. Future studies on the applications of health risk assessment are crucial in order to understand the risk of heavy metal exposure through drinking water to Malaysian population. Among the biomarkers that have been reviewed, toenail is the most useful tool to evaluate body burden of heavy metal. Toenails are easy to collect, store, transport and analysed. This review will give a clear guidance for future studies of Malaysian drinking water. In this way, it will help risk managers to minimize the exposure at optimum level as well as the government to formulate policies in safe guarding the population. Copyright © 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using complexity theory to develop a student-directed interprofessional learning activity for 1220 healthcare students.

PubMed

Jorm, Christine; Nisbet, Gillian; Roberts, Chris; Gordon, Christopher; Gentilcore, Stacey; Chen, Timothy F

2016-08-08

More and better interprofessional practice is predicated to be necessary to deliver good care to the patients of the future. However, universities struggle to create authentic learning activities that enable students to experience the dynamic interprofessional interactions common in healthcare and that can accommodate large interprofessional student cohorts. We investigated a large-scale mandatory interprofessional learning (IPL) activity for health professional students designed to promote social learning. A mixed methods research approach determined feasibility, acceptability and the extent to which student IPL outcomes were met. We developed an IPL activity founded in complexity theory to prepare students for future practice by engaging them in a self-directed (self-organised) learning activity with a diverse team, whose assessable products would be emergent creations. Complicated but authentic clinical cases (n = 12) were developed to challenge student teams (n = 5 or 6). Assessment consisted of a written management plan (academically marked) and a five-minute video (peer marked) designed to assess creative collaboration as well as provide evidence of integrated collective knowledge; the cohesive patient-centred management plan. All students (including the disciplines of diagnostic radiology, exercise physiology, medicine, nursing, occupational therapy, pharmacy, physiotherapy and speech pathology), completed all tasks successfully. Of the 26 % of students who completed the evaluation survey, 70 % agreed or strongly agreed that the IPL activity was worthwhile, and 87 % agreed or strongly agreed that their case study was relevant. Thematic analysis found overarching themes of engagement and collaboration-in-action suggesting that the IPL activity enabled students to achieve the intended learning objectives. Students recognised the contribution of others and described negotiation, collaboration and creation of new collective knowledge after working together on the complicated patient case studies. The novel video assessment was challenging to many students and contextual issues limited engagement for some disciplines. We demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of a large scale IPL activity where design of cases, format and assessment tasks was founded in complexity theory. This theoretically based design enabled students to achieve complex IPL outcomes relevant to future practice. Future research could establish the psychometric properties of assessments of student performance in large-scale IPL events.

[Low level of physical fitness in Spanish adolescents. Relevance for future cardiovascular health (AVENA study)].

PubMed

Ortega, Francisco B; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Castillo, Manuel J; Moreno, Luis A; González-Gross, Marcela; Wärnberg, Julia; Gutiérrez, Angel

2005-08-01

Several studies have demonstrated that physical fitness in childhood and adolescence is related to cardiovascular risk in adulthood. Current data on the physical fitness of Spanish adolescents are not available. Therefore, the aims of this study were: a) to assess the physical fitness of Spanish adolescents and establish reference values for use in health and educational settings as indicators of cardiovascular health, and b) to determine the percentage of Spanish adolescents below the minimum level of aerobic fitness needed to guarantee future cardiovascular health. The modified EUROFIT battery of tests was used to assess physical fitness in a representative sample of Spanish adolescents (n=2859; 1357 boys and 1502 girls) taking part in the AVENA (Alimentación y Valoración del Estado Nutricional de los Adolescentes) study. Standard parameters for the physical condition of Spanish adolescents are reported in this study. The 5th percentile for maximum aerobic capacity (Course Navette test) ranged from 2.0-3.3 palier in boys and from 1.4-1.9 palier in girls. The findings indicate that, on the basis of aerobic fitness, approximately 20% of Spanish adolescents have an increased risk of future cardiovascular disease. This subgroup also performed poorly in all other tests of physical fitness used. The results reported in this study enable the level of physical fitness in adolescents to be interpreted as an indicator of future cardiovascular health. They also indicate that the physical fitness of Spanish adolescents must be improved to help protect against cardiovascular disease in adulthood.

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

2017-02-01

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Reproductive and developmental effects of disinfection by-products in drinking water.

PubMed Central

Reif, J S; Hatch, M C; Bracken, M; Holmes, L B; Schwetz, B A; Singer, P C

1996-01-01

Recent epidemiologic studies have reported associations between the consumption of chlorinated drinking water and reproductive and developmental effects. Here we review the available epidemiologic data, assess the hazard potential posed by exposure to disinfection by-products, identify critical data gaps, and offer recommendations for further research. The epidemiologic evidence supporting associations between exposure to water disinfection by-products (DBPs) and adverse pregnancy outcomes is sparse, and positive findings should be interpreted cautiously. The methods used during the early stages of research in this area have been diverse. Variability in exposure assessment and endpoints makes it difficult to synthesize or combine the available data. Exposure misclassification and unmeasured confounding may have lead to bias in risk estimation. Future studies of reproductive outcome and exposure to chlorinated water should use improved methods for exposure assessment to 1) assure selection of appropriate exposure markers, 2) assess seasonal and annual fluctuations in DBPs, 3) assess variability within the distribution system, and 4) assess exposure through multiple routes such as bathing and showering, as well as consumption. Population-based studies should be conducted to evaluate male and female fertility, conception delay, growth retardation, and specific birth defects. The reproductive and developmental effects of exposure to DBPs could be efficiently explored in ongoing investigations by incorporating valid exposure markers and relevant questionnaire information. Future studies should make use of naturally occurring variability in the concentrations of DBPs and may incorporate biomarkers of exposure and effect in their design. Epidemiologic investigations should be conducted in parallel with laboratory-based and animal studies in a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach. PMID:8930546

The relationship between trait self-control, consideration for future consequence and organizational citizenship behavior among Chinese employees.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Jie; Dou, Kai; Tang, Zhi-Wen

2017-01-01

Organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) is important to the development of an organization. Research into factors that foster OCB and the underlying processes are therefore substantially crucial. The current study aimed to test the association between trait self-control and OCB and the mediating role of consideration for future consequence. Four hundred and ninety-four Chinese employees (275 men, 219 women) took part in the study. Participants completed a battery of self-report measures online that assessed trait self-control, tendencies of consideration of future consequence, and organizational citizenship behavior. Path analysis was conducted and bootstrapping technique (N = 5000), a resampling method that is asymptotically more accurate than the standard intervals using sample variance and assumptions of normality, was used to judge the significance of the mediation. Results of path analysis showed that trait self-control was positively related to OCB. More importantly, the "trait self-control-OCB" link was mediated by consideration of future consequence-future, but not by consideration of future consequence-immediate. Employees with high trait self-control engage in more organizational citizenship behavior and this link can be partly explained by consideration of future consequence-future.

Gender Differences in Scientific Literacy of HKPISA 2006: A Multidimensional Differential Item Functioning and Multilevel Mediation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Kwan Yin

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of gender differences of 15-year-old students on scientific literacy and their impacts on students’ motivation to pursue science education and careers (Future-oriented Science Motivation) in Hong Kong. The data for this study was collected from the Program for International Student Assessment in Hong Kong (HKPISA). It was carried out in 2006. A total of 4,645 students were randomly selected from 146 secondary schools including government, aided and private schools by two-stage stratified sampling method for the assessment. HKPISA 2006, like most of other large-scale international assessments, presents its assessment frameworks in multidimensional subscales. To fulfill the requirements of this multidimensional assessment framework, this study deployed new approaches to model and investigate gender differences in cognitive and affective latent traits of scientific literacy by using multidimensional differential item functioning (MDIF) and multilevel mediation (MLM). Compared with mean score difference t-test, MDIF improves the precision of each subscales measure at item level and the gender differences in science performance can be accurately estimated. In the light of Eccles et al (1983) Expectancy-value Model of Achievement-related Choices (Eccles’ Model), MLM examines the pattern of gender effects on Future-oriented Science Motivation mediated through cognitive and affective factors. As for MLM investigation, Single-Group Confirmatory Factor Analysis (Single-Group CFA) was used to confirm the applicability and validity of six affective factors which was, originally prepared by OECD. These six factors are Science Self-concept, Personal Value of Science, Interest in Science Learning, Enjoyment of Science Learning, Instrumental Motivation to Learn Science and Future-oriented Science Motivation. Then, Multiple Group CFA was used to verify measurement invariance of these factors across gender groups. The results of Single-Group CFA confirmed that five out of the six affective factors except Interest in Science Learning had strong psychometric properties in the context of Hong Kong. Multiple-group CFA results also confirmed measurement invariance of these factors across gender groups. The findings of this study suggest that 15-year-old school boys consistently outperformed girls in most of the cognitive dimensions except identifying scientific issues. Similarly, boys have higher affective learning outcomes than girls. The effect sizes of gender differences in affective learning outcomes are relatively larger than that of cognitive one. The MLM study reveals that gender effects on Future-oriented Science Motivation mediate through affective factors including Science Self-concept, Enjoyment of Science Learning, Interest in Science Learning, Instrumental Motivation to Learn Science and Personal Value of Science. Girls are significantly affected by the negative impacts of these mediating factors and thus Future-oriented Science Motivation. The MLM results were consistent with the predications by Eccles’ Model. Overall, the CFA and MLM results provide strong support for cross-cultural validity of Eccles’ Model. In light of our findings, recommendations to reduce the gender differences in science achievement and Future-oriented Science Motivation are made for science education participants, teachers, parents, curriculum leaders, examination bodies and policy makers.

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.

2010-01-01

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

2013-08-01

This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technologicalmore » breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.« less

Fuzzy Logic Approaches to Multi-Objective Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.

1994-01-01

Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.

DOT/NASA comparative assessment of Brayton engines for guideway vehicle and buses. Volume 1: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The Department of Transportation requested that the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology evaluate and assess the potential of several types of gas turbine engines and fuels for the on-board power and propulsion of a future heavy-duty ground transportation system. The purpose of the investigation was threefold: (1) to provide a definition of the potential for turbine engines to minimize pollution, energy consumption, and noise; (2) to provide a useful means of comparison of the types of engine based on consistent assumptions and a common analytical approach; and (3) to provide a compendium of comparative performance data that would serve as the technical basis for future planning. Emphasis was on establishing comparison trends rather than on absolute values and a definitive engine selection. The primary value of this study is intended to be usefulness of the results to provide a quantitative basis for future judgement.

Assessment of Immune Status, Latent Viral Reactivation and Stress during Long Duration Bed Rest as an Analog for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crucian, Brian E.; Stowe, Raymond P.; Mehta, Satish K.; Yetman, Deborah L.; Leaf, Melanie J.; Pierson, Duane L.; Sams, Clarence F.

2007-01-01

As logistical access for in-flight space research becomes more limited, the use of ground based spaceflight analogs for life science studies will increase. These studies are particularly important as NASA progresses towards the Lunar and eventually Mars missions outlined in the 2005 Vision for Space Exploration. Countermeasures must be developed to mitigate the clinical risks associated with exploration class space missions. In an effort to coordinate studies across multiple disciplines, NASA has selected 90-day bed rest as the analog of choice, and initiated the Flight Analogs Project to implement research studies with or without the evaluation of countermeasures. Although bed rest is not the analog of choice to evaluate spaceflight-associated immune dysfunction, a standard Immune Assessment was developed for subjects participating in the 90-day bed best studies. The Immune Assessment consists of: leukocyte subset distribution, T cell functional responses, intracellular cytokine production profiles, latent viral reactivation, virus specific T cell levels, virus specific T cell function, stress hormone levels and a behavioral assessment using stress questionnaires. The purpose of the assessment during the initial studies (without countermeasure) is to establish control data against which future studies (with countermeasure) will be evaluated. It is believed that some of the countermeasures planned to be evaluated in future studies, such as exercise, pharmacologic intervention or nutritional supplementation, have the ability to impact immune function. Therefore immunity will likely be monitored during those studies. The data generated during the first three control studies showed that the subjects in general did not display altered peripheral leukocyte subsets, constitutive immune activation, significant latent viral reactivation (EBV, VZV) or altered T cell function. Interestingly, for some subjects the level of constitutively activated T cells (CD8+/CD69+) and virus-specific T cells (CMV and EBV) both decreased during the studies. This likely reflects the isolation of the subjects (from an immunological perspective) and absence of everyday subclinical challenges to the immune system. Cortisol levels (plasma and saliva) did not vary significantly during the studies. This probably reflects a lack of physiological stress during the study and the stress of readaptation to the 1xG environment at R+1. These data demonstrate the absence of significant immune alteration during 90-day bed rest, and establish control data against which future studies (including countermeasures) may be compared.

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of fruits and vegetables among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study.

PubMed

Riordan, Fiona; Ryan, Kathleen; Perry, Ivan J; Schulze, Matthias B; Andersen, Lene Frost; Geelen, Anouk; Van't Veer, Pieter; Eussen, Simone; Dagnelie, Pieter; Wijckmans-Duysens, Nicole; Harrington, Janas M

2017-02-01

Evidence suggests that health benefits are associated with consuming recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables (F&V), yet standardised assessment methods to measure F&V intake are lacking. The current review aims to identify methods to assess F&V intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed F&V intake were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children or adults. The review identified fifty-one pan-European studies which assessed F&V intake. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 42), followed by 24 h recall (n 11) and diet records/diet history (n 7). Differences existed between the identified methods; for example, the number of F&V items on the FFQ and whether potatoes/legumes were classified as vegetables. In total, eight validated instruments were identified which assessed F&V intake among adults, adolescents or children. The current review indicates that an agreed classification of F&V is needed in order to standardise intake data more effectively between European countries. Validated methods used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of European regions were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating intake of F&V.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models.

PubMed

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A statistical analysis of murine incisional and excisional acute wound models.

PubMed

Ansell, David M; Campbell, Laura; Thomason, Helen A; Brass, Andrew; Hardman, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Mice represent the most commonly used species for preclinical in vivo research. While incisional and excisional acute murine wound models are both frequently employed, there is little agreement on which model is optimum. Moreover, current lack of standardization of wounding procedure, analysis time point(s), method of assessment, and the use of individual wounds vs. individual animals as replicates makes it difficult to compare across studies. Here we have profiled secondary intention healing of incisional and excisional wounds within the same animal, assessing multiple parameters to determine the optimal methodology for future studies. We report that histology provides the least variable assessment of healing. Furthermore, histology alone (not planimetry) is able to detect accelerated healing in a castrated mouse model. Perhaps most importantly, we find virtually no correlation between wounds within the same animal, suggesting that use of wound (not animal) biological replicates is perfectly acceptable. Overall, these findings should guide and refine future studies, increasing the likelihood of detecting novel phenotypes while reducing the numbers of animals required for experimentation. © 2014 by the Wound Healing Society.

A statistical analysis of murine incisional and excisional acute wound models

PubMed Central

Ansell, David M; Campbell, Laura; Thomason, Helen A; Brass, Andrew; Hardman, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Mice represent the most commonly used species for preclinical in vivo research. While incisional and excisional acute murine wound models are both frequently employed, there is little agreement on which model is optimum. Moreover, current lack of standardization of wounding procedure, analysis time point(s), method of assessment, and the use of individual wounds vs. individual animals as replicates makes it difficult to compare across studies. Here we have profiled secondary intention healing of incisional and excisional wounds within the same animal, assessing multiple parameters to determine the optimal methodology for future studies. We report that histology provides the least variable assessment of healing. Furthermore, histology alone (not planimetry) is able to detect accelerated healing in a castrated mouse model. Perhaps most importantly, we find virtually no correlation between wounds within the same animal, suggesting that use of wound (not animal) biological replicates is perfectly acceptable. Overall, these findings should guide and refine future studies, increasing the likelihood of detecting novel phenotypes while reducing the numbers of animals required for experimentation. PMID:24635179

Towards Automating Clinical Assessments: A Survey of the Timed Up and Go (TUG)

PubMed Central

Sprint, Gina; Cook, Diane; Weeks, Douglas

2016-01-01

Older adults often suffer from functional impairments that affect their ability to perform everyday tasks. To detect the onset and changes in abilities, healthcare professionals administer standardized assessments. Recently, technology has been utilized to complement these clinical assessments to gain a more objective and detailed view of functionality. In the clinic and at home, technology is able to provide more information about patient performance and reduce subjectivity in outcome measures. The timed up and go (TUG) test is one such assessment recently instrumented with technology in several studies, yielding promising results towards the future of automating clinical assessments. Potential benefits of technological TUG implementations include additional performance parameters, generated reports, and the ability to be self-administered in the home. In this paper, we provide an overview of the TUG test and technologies utilized for TUG instrumentation. We then critically review the technological advancements and follow up with an evaluation of the benefits and limitations of each approach. Finally, we analyze the gaps in the implementations and discuss challenges for future research towards automated, self-administered assessment in the home. PMID:25594979

Algorithms and the Future of Music Education: A Response to Shuler

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thibeault, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

This article is a response to Shuler's 2001 article predicting the future of music education. The respondent assesses Shuler's predictions, finding that many have come true but critiquing Shuler's overall positive assessment. The respondent then goes on to make one prediction about the future of music education: that algorithms will…

78 FR 27957 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic, Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review (SEDAR); Public Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-13

..., describes the fisheries, evaluates the status of the stock, estimates biological benchmarks, projects future.... Participants will evaluate and recommend datasets appropriate for assessment analysis, employ assessment models to evaluate stock status, estimate population benchmarks and management criteria, and project future...

Topical Review: Adherence Interventions for Youth on Gluten-Free Diets.

PubMed

Holbein, Christina E; Carmody, Julia K; Hommel, Kevin A

2018-05-01

To summarize gluten-free diet (GFD) nonadherence risk factors, nonadherence rates, and current intervention research within an integrative framework and to develop a research agenda for the development and implementation of evidence-based GFD adherence interventions. Topical review of literature published since 2008 investigating GFD adherence in pediatric samples. Reviews of pediatric studies indicate GFD nonadherence rates ranging from 19 to 56%. There are few evidence-based, published pediatric GFD adherence interventions. Novel assessments of GFD adherence are promising but require further study. Nonmodifiable and modifiable factors within individual, family, community, and health systems domains must be considered when developing future interventions. Clinical implications are discussed. Avenues for future research include development and refinement of adherence assessment tools and development of evidence-based GFD adherence interventions. Novel technologies (e.g., GFD mobile applications) require empirical study but present exciting opportunities for adherence intervention.

Development of custom measurement system for biomechanical evaluation of independent wheelchair transfers

PubMed Central

Koontz, Alicia M.; Lin, Yen-Sheng; Kankipati, Padmaja; Boninger, Michael L.; Cooper, Rory A.

2017-01-01

This study describes a new custom measurement system designed to investigate the biomechanics of sitting-pivot wheelchair transfers and assesses the reliability of selected biomechanical variables. Variables assessed include horizontal and vertical reaction forces underneath both hands and three-dimensional trunk, shoulder, and elbow range of motion. We examined the reliability of these measures between 5 consecutive transfer trials for 5 subjects with spinal cord injury and 12 non-disabled subjects while they performed a self-selected sitting pivot transfer from a wheelchair to a level bench. A majority of the biomechanical variables demonstrated moderate to excellent reliability (r > 0.6). The transfer measurement system recorded reliable and valid biomechanical data for future studies of sitting-pivot wheelchair transfers. We recommend a minimum of five transfer trials to obtain a reliable measure of transfer technique for future studies. PMID:22068376

GIS-based regionalized life cycle assessment: how big is small enough? Methodology and case study of electricity generation.

PubMed

Mutel, Christopher L; Pfister, Stephan; Hellweg, Stefanie

2012-01-17

We describe a new methodology for performing regionalized life cycle assessment and systematically choosing the spatial scale of regionalized impact assessment methods. We extend standard matrix-based calculations to include matrices that describe the mapping from inventory to impact assessment spatial supports. Uncertainty in inventory spatial data is modeled using a discrete spatial distribution function, which in a case study is derived from empirical data. The minimization of global spatial autocorrelation is used to choose the optimal spatial scale of impact assessment methods. We demonstrate these techniques on electricity production in the United States, using regionalized impact assessment methods for air emissions and freshwater consumption. Case study results show important differences between site-generic and regionalized calculations, and provide specific guidance for future improvements of inventory data sets and impact assessment methods.

Validity and inter-observer reliability of subjective hand-arm vibration assessments.

PubMed

Coenen, Pieter; Formanoy, Margriet; Douwes, Marjolein; Bosch, Tim; de Kraker, Heleen

2014-07-01

Exposure to mechanical vibrations at work (e.g., due to handling powered tools) is a potential occupational risk as it may cause upper extremity complaints. However, reliable and valid assessment methods for vibration exposure at work are lacking. Measuring hand-arm vibration objectively is often difficult and expensive, while often used information provided by manufacturers lacks detail. Therefore, a subjective hand-arm vibration assessment method was tested on validity and inter-observer reliability. In an experimental protocol, sixteen tasks handling powered tools were executed by two workers. Hand-arm vibration was assessed subjectively by 16 observers according to the proposed subjective assessment method. As a gold standard reference, hand-arm vibration was measured objectively using a vibration measurement device. Weighted κ's were calculated to assess validity, intra-class-correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated to assess inter-observer reliability. Inter-observer reliability of the subjective assessments depicting the agreement among observers can be expressed by an ICC of 0.708 (0.511-0.873). The validity of the subjective assessments as compared to the gold-standard reference can be expressed by a weighted κ of 0.535 (0.285-0.785). Besides, the percentage of exact agreement of the subjective assessment compared to the objective measurement was relatively low (i.e., 52% of all tasks). This study shows that subjectively assessed hand-arm vibrations are fairly reliable among observers and moderately valid. This assessment method is a first attempt to use subjective risk assessments of hand-arm vibration. Although, this assessment method can benefit from some future improvement, it can be of use in future studies and in field-based ergonomic assessments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Television Futures: A Social Action Methodology for Studying Interpretive Communities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Klaus Bruhn

1990-01-01

Presents a qualitative methodology employing workshop sessions for studying audience assessment of the mass media's service to the public. Finds that viewers are capable of a sophisticated critique of television, and raises implications both for the politics of communication and for further reception studies. (MG)

Clinical Research: A Psychotherapeutic Assessment Model for Siblings in Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hindle, Debbie

2007-01-01

This paper focuses on the aspects of a qualitative research project that examines an assessment protocol for the placement of siblings in foster care and/or future adoption. A brief description of the background to the study and the research design is given. Evaluating the material from the quantitative instruments used and the psychotherapeutic…

Assessing the Development of Educational Research Literacy: The Effect of Courses on Research Methods in Studies of Educational Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groß Ophoff, Jana; Schladitz, Sandra; Leuders, Juliane; Leuders, Timo; Wirtz, Markus A.

2015-01-01

The ability to purposefully access, reflect, and use evidence from educational research (Educational Research Literacy) is expected of future professionals in educational practice. Based on the presented conceptual framework, a test instrument was developed to assess the different competency aspects: Information Literacy, Statistical Literacy, and…

Projecting other public inventories for the 2005 RPA timber assessment update.

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; John R. Mills; Richard W. Haynes

2007-01-01

This study gives an overview of the current inventory status and the projection of future forest inventories on other public timberland. Other public lands are lands administered by state, local, and federal government but excluding National Forest System lands. These projections were used as part of the 2005 USDA Forest Service Resource Planning Act timber assessment...

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

Repairing Leaks in the Chemistry Teacher Pipeline: A Longitudinal Analysis of Praxis Chemistry Subject Assessment Examinees and Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shah, Lisa; Hao, Jie; Schneider, Jeremy; Fallin, Rebekah; Cortes, Kimberly Linenberger; Ray, Herman E.; Rushton, Gregory T.

2018-01-01

Teachers play a critical role in the preparation of future science, technology, engineering, and mathematics majors and professionals. What teachers know about their discipline (i.e., content knowledge) has been identified as an important aspect of instructional effectiveness; however, studies have not yet assessed the content knowledge of…

Using Wikis and Blogs for Assessment in First-Year Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Elizabeth Joy; Mills, Julie Evelyn; Myers, Baden

2009-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to examine some of the strengths and weaknesses of the use of online tools such as wikis and blogs for assessment purposes, with the aim of proposing future developments and improvements. Design/methodology/approach: The paper utilises a case study approach by examining the outcomes of a new first-year course for all…

Developing and Evaluating a Paper-and-Pencil Test to Assess Components of Physics Teachers' Pedagogical Content Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirschner, Sophie; Borowski, Andreas; Fischer, Hans E.; Gess-Newsome, Julie; von Aufschnaiter, Claudia

2016-01-01

Teachers' professional knowledge is assumed to be a key variable for effective teaching. As teacher education has the goal to enhance professional knowledge of current and future teachers, this knowledge should be described and assessed. Nevertheless, only a limited number of studies quantitatively measures physics teachers' professional…

Understanding Learners' Self-Assessment and Self-Feedback on Their Foreign Language Speaking Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Shu-Chen

2016-01-01

This study examines university learners' self-assessment and self-feedback on performance as captured in audio files from a foreign language speaking test. The learners' were guided to listen, transcribe and analyse their own speaking samples, as well as propose future actions for improvement. Content of learners' self-feedback was scrutinised…

EFL College Students' Perceptions of the Difficulties in Oral Presentation as a Form of Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Nouh, Nowreyah A.; Abdul-Kareem, Muneera M.; Taqi, Hanan A.

2015-01-01

Oral presentation skills are considered one of the most important proficiencies needed for higher education and future careers. Thus, the present study is interested in eliciting English as a Foreign Language (EFL) college students' perceptions of the difficulties they face in oral presentation as a form of assessment. Participants were 500 female…

Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings

PubMed Central

Schiavo, Renata; Leung, May May; Brown, Mason

2014-01-01

Objective This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. Methods We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Results Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention’s impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. Conclusions The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising interventions and areas for future investigation. Among them, community-based and participatory interventions seemed to be central within epidemic and emerging disease settings, particularly in low-resource settings. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness is not conclusive and needs to be explored by future studies. Other promising areas for future investigation include multi-component and multi-sectoral approaches to intervention design. Major research gaps referred to any evaluation of the impact of these kinds of interventions on health policy adoption and/or implementation, and social determinants of health. Research on cost-effectiveness also needs to be strengthened. This review identified several research gaps and questions, and discusses potential future directions for increasing capacity for future and more rigorous assessments. PMID:24649867

Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

PubMed

Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

2014-03-01

This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising interventions and areas for future investigation. Among them, community-based and participatory interventions seemed to be central within epidemic and emerging disease settings, particularly in low-resource settings. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness is not conclusive and needs to be explored by future studies. Other promising areas for future investigation include multi-component and multi-sectoral approaches to intervention design. Major research gaps referred to any evaluation of the impact of these kinds of interventions on health policy adoption and/or implementation, and social determinants of health. Research on cost-effectiveness also needs to be strengthened. This review identified several research gaps and questions, and discusses potential future directions for increasing capacity for future and more rigorous assessments.

Plaque Echolucency and Stroke Risk in Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ajay; Kesavabhotla, Kartik; Baradaran, Hediyeh; Kamel, Hooman; Pandya, Ankur; Giambrone, Ashley E.; Wright, Drew; Pain, Kevin J.; Mtui, Edward E.; Suri, Jasjit S.; Sanelli, Pina C.; Mushlin, Alvin I.

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Ultrasonographic plaque echolucency has been studied as a stroke risk marker in carotid atherosclerotic disease. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between ultrasound determined carotid plaque echolucency and future ipsilateral stroke risk. Methods We searched the medical literature for studies evaluating the association between carotid plaque echolucency and future stroke in asymptomatic patients. We included prospective observational studies with stroke outcome ascertainment after baseline carotid plaque echolucency assessment. We performed a meta-analysis and assessed study heterogeneity and publication bias. We also performed subgroup analyses limited to patients with stenosis ≥50%, studies in which plaque echolucency was determined via subjective visual interpretation, studies with a relatively lower risk of bias, and studies published after the year 2000. Results We analyzed data from 7 studies on 7557 subjects with a mean follow up of 37.2 months. We found a significant positive relationship between predominantly echolucent (compared to predominantly echogenic) plaques and the risk of future ipsilateral stroke across all stenosis severities (0-99%) (relative risk [RR], 2.31, 95% CI, 1.58-3.39, P<.001) and in subjects with ≥50% stenosis (RR, 2.61 95% CI, 1.47-4.63, P=.001). A statistically significant increased RR for future stroke was preserved in all additional subgroup analyses. No statistically significant heterogeneity or publication bias was present in any of the meta-analyses. Conclusions The presence of ultrasound-determined carotid plaque echolucency provides predictive information in asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis beyond luminal stenosis. However, the magnitude of the increased risk is not sufficient on its own to identify patients likely to benefit from surgical revascularization. PMID:25406150

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Future fertility for individuals with differences of sex development: Parent attitudes and perspectives about decision-making.

PubMed

Johnson, Emilie K; Rosoklija, Ilina; Shurba, Angela; D'Oro, Anthony; Gordon, Elisa J; Chen, Diane; Finlayson, Courtney; Holl, Jane L

2017-08-01

Children, adolescents, and young adults (children/youth) with differences/disorders of sex development (DSD) face challenges related to future fertility; this may be due to variations in gonadal development, and, for some, gonadectomy performed to reduce the risk of malignancy. Childhood may be the only time for preservation of biological fertility potential for children/youth who undergo gonadectomy or have early gonadal failure. Fertility-related decision-making for these patients is particularly complicated, due to the need for parental proxy decision-making, potential discordance between gender identity and gonadal type, and uncertain future assisted reproductive technologies. This study aimed to assess: (1) attitudes regarding future fertility, and (2) healthcare needs for fertility-related decision-making among parents of children/youth with DSD. Semi-structured qualitative interviews about future fertility were conducted with parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents who had never discussed fertility with a healthcare provider were excluded. Grounded theory methodology was used to identify emergent themes and patterns. Demographics and clinical characteristics were assessed via survey and medical chart review. Nineteen parents were interviewed (participation rate: 60%, 14 mothers/5 fathers, median patient age at diagnosis 6 months (range 0-192), eight DSD diagnoses). The most common emergent themes are summarized in the Summary Table. Most parents identified fertility as a key concern, both at time of diagnosis and throughout development. Parents expressed difficulty with timing of disclosure about potential infertility to their children. Multiple preferences related to medical decision-making about future fertility and fertility preservation were expressed, including: a desire for step-by-step decision-making, and use of medically vetted information and research to guide decisions. This qualitative study provided new information about the perspectives of parents of children/youth with DSD regarding future fertility. Previous studies have suggested that the possibility of biological parenthood is important to many individuals with DSD. This study provided an in-depth parental perspective. This is important because many decisions that affect future fertility are made in childhood, and require parents to make decisions on behalf of their children. The study sample was limited in its geographic diversity. Strengths of the study included diversity in age of the child/youth, ethnic backgrounds, and the DSD diagnoses that were represented. Future fertility was a concern for many parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents expressed multiple priorities and preferences related to making difficult fertility-related medical decisions for their children. Many of the study findings could be incorporated into future best practices for discussions about fertility with families of children/youth with DSD. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 5: Workshop proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Proceedings of a workshop conducted to identify and debate issues and impacts related to future transporation alternatives are presented. Results of the technology assessment of intercity transportation are reviewed.

Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

2016-12-01

The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

Secondary Breast Augmentation.

PubMed

Brown, Mitchell H; Somogyi, Ron B; Aggarwal, Shagun

2016-07-01

After studying this article, the participant should be able to: 1. Assess common clinical problems in the secondary breast augmentation patient. 2. Describe a treatment plan to correct the most common complications of breast augmentation. 3. Provide surgical and nonsurgical options for managing complications of breast augmentation. 4. Decrease the incidence of future complications through accurate assessment, preoperative planning, and precise surgical technique. Breast augmentation has been increasing steadily in popularity over the past three decades. Many of these patients present with secondary problems or complications following their primary breast augmentation. Two of the most common complications are capsular contracture and implant malposition. Familiarity and comfort with the assessment and management of these complications is necessary for all plastic surgeons. An up-to-date understanding of current devices and techniques may decrease the need to manage future complications from the current cohort of breast augmentation patients.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Air pollution as a risk factor in health impact assessments of a travel mode shift towards cycling

PubMed Central

Raza, Wasif; Forsberg, Bertil; Johansson, Christer; Sommar, Johan Nilsson

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Promotion of active commuting provides substantial health and environmental benefits by influencing air pollution, physical activity, accidents, and noise. However, studies evaluating intervention and policies on a mode shift from motorized transport to cycling have estimated health impacts with varying validity and precision. Objective: To review and discuss the estimation of air pollution exposure and its impacts in health impact assessment studies of a shift in transport from cars to bicycles in order to guide future assessments. Methods: A systematic database search of PubMed was done primarily for articles published from January 2000 to May 2016 according to PRISMA guidelines. Results: We identified 18 studies of health impact assessment of change in transport mode. Most studies investigated future hypothetical scenarios of increased cycling. The impact on the general population was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach in the majority of these studies, whereas some used previously published cost estimates. Air pollution exposure during cycling was estimated based on the ventilation rate, the pollutant concentration, and the trip duration. Most studies employed exposure-response functions from studies comparing background levels of fine particles between cities to estimate the health impacts of local traffic emissions. The effect of air pollution associated with increased cycling contributed small health benefits for the general population, and also only slightly increased risks associated with fine particle exposure among those who shifted to cycling. However, studies calculating health impacts based on exposure-response functions for ozone, black carbon or nitrogen oxides found larger effects attributed to changes in air pollution exposure. Conclusion: A large discrepancy between studies was observed due to different health impact assessment approaches, different assumptions for calculation of inhaled dose and different selection of dose-response functions. This kind of assessments would improve from more holistic approaches using more specific exposure-response functions. PMID:29400262

Pain Assessment: Subjectivity, Objectivity, and the Use of Neurotechnology Part One: Practical and Ethical Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-08

assessment, neurotechnology, biotechnology, neuroethics , medicine Pain Physician 2010; 13:305-315 Ethics Pain Assessment: Subjectivity, Objectivity...Studies, Arlington, VA, USA; Wellcome Centre for Neuroethics , University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; 2Institute for BioTechnology Futures, New York, NY, USA...which to guide care. a role for technology? PossIbIlItIes, Problems, and the neuroethIcs of PaIn care Can biotechnology provide the means and tools

Functional assessment and performance evaluation for assistive robotic manipulators: Literature review.

PubMed

Chung, Cheng-Shiu; Wang, Hongwu; Cooper, Rory A

2013-07-01

The user interface development of assistive robotic manipulators can be traced back to the 1960s. Studies include kinematic designs, cost-efficiency, user experience involvements, and performance evaluation. This paper is to review studies conducted with clinical trials using activities of daily living (ADLs) tasks to evaluate performance categorized using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) frameworks, in order to give the scope of current research and provide suggestions for future studies. We conducted a literature search of assistive robotic manipulators from 1970 to 2012 in PubMed, Google Scholar, and University of Pittsburgh Library System - PITTCat. Twenty relevant studies were identified. Studies were separated into two broad categories: user task preferences and user-interface performance measurements of commercialized and developing assistive robotic manipulators. The outcome measures and ICF codes associated with the performance evaluations are reported. Suggestions for the future studies include (1) standardized ADL tasks for the quantitative and qualitative evaluation of task efficiency and performance to build comparable measures between research groups, (2) studies relevant to the tasks from user priority lists and ICF codes, and (3) appropriate clinical functional assessment tests with consideration of constraints in assistive robotic manipulator user interfaces. In addition, these outcome measures will help physicians and therapists build standardized tools while prescribing and assessing assistive robotic manipulators.

Water Availability and Use Pilot-A multiscale assessment in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeves, Howard W.

2011-01-01

Beginning in 2005, water availability and use were assessed for the U.S. part of the Great Lakes Basin through the Great Lakes Basin Pilot of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) national assessment of water availability and use. The goals of a national assessment of water availability and use are to clarify our understanding of water-availability status and trends and improve our ability to forecast the balance between water supply and demand for future economic and environmental uses. This report outlines possible approaches for full-scale implementation of such an assessment. As such, the focus of this study was on collecting, compiling, and analyzing a wide variety of data to define the storage and dynamics of water resources and quantify the human demands on water in the Great Lakes region. The study focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to highlight not only the abundant regional availability of water but also the potential for local shortages or conflicts over water. Regional studies provided a framework for understanding water resources in the basin. Subregional studies directed attention to varied aspects of the water-resources system that would have been difficult to assess for the whole region because of either data limitations or time limitations for the project. The study of local issues and concerns was motivated by regional discussions that led to recent legislative action between the Great Lakes States and regional cooperation with the Canadian Great Lakes Provinces. The multiscale nature of the study findings challenges water-resource managers and the public to think about regional water resources in an integrated way and to understand how future changes to the system-driven by human uses, climate variability, or land-use change-may be accommodated by informed water-resources management.

An outlook for cargo aircraft of the future. [assessment of the future of air cargo by analyzing statistics and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicks, O. W.; Whitehead, A. H., Jr.; Alford, W. J., Jr.

1975-01-01

An assessment is provided of the future of air cargo by analyzing air cargo statistics and trends, by noting air cargo system problems and inefficiencies, by analyzing characteristics of air-eligible commodities, and by showing the promise of new technology for future cargo aircraft with significant improvements in costs and efficiency. NASA's proposed program is reviewed which would sponsor the research needed to provide for development of advanced designs by 1985.

The use of foresight methods in strategic raw materials intelligence - an international review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrat Martins, Marco Antonio; Bodo, Balazs; Falck, Eberhard

2017-04-01

Foresight methods are systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, society, economy and technology. There is a range of tools and techniques that can be used individually or combined, most commonly classified into qualitative, quantitative or semi-quantitative methods, that follow an exploratory or normative approach. These tools can help to identify the longer term visions, orienting policy formulation and decisions, triggering actions, among other objectives. There is an identified lack of European strategic foresight knowledge in the raw materials domain. Since the European Raw Materials Initiative was launched in 2008, the EU has been attempting to overcome challenges related to the future access of non-energy and non-agricultural raw materials. In this context, the ongoing H2020 project, MICA (Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis, Grant Agreement No. 689648), has been launched to answer to stakeholders needs by consolidating relevant data, determining relevant methods and tools, and investigating Raw Materials Intelligence options for European mineral policy development, all tailored to fit under the umbrella of a European Raw Materials Intelligence Capacity Platform (EU-RMICP). As part of the MICA activities, an assessment of best practices and benchmarks of international raw materials foresight case studies has been carried out in order to review how EU and non-EU countries have employed foresight. A pool of 30 case studies has been collected and reviewed internationally, one third of which were selected for detailed assessment. These were classified according to their background and goals, in function of methods employed, and to the purpose of each method in the study: a total of 12 different methods were identified in these studies. For longer time frames, qualitative predictive methods such as Scenario Development have been repeatedly observed for mineral raw materials foresight studies. Substantial variations were observed in terms of use and deployment of the scenarios. Pre-defined global scenarios can be used to explore futures thinking over a given theme - a step in the process - whereas the development of specific scenarios can be the main element of the study. The former was used to consider future strategies at different levels and how different futures influence the sector, whilst the latter was preferably used as means of assessment of sector capabilities and the current readiness for future challenges. Other methods such as SWOT, STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical, Environmental and Political scanning) and Brainstorming can be observed supporting the Scenarios, helping to provide either input for its development or post-processing its outcomes towards overall objectives. The volatility of the mineral raw materials sector presents a natural inclination towards more explorative and creativity-based methods. Such methods can address the necessity of understanding how different factors may play out in the future, where critical uncertainties can dictate a range of possible futures. Therefore, having a solid backdrop for alternative paths is extremely useful for policy and decision-makers to propose actions and respond in a timely manner to the future challenges of the sector.

Caregiver anticipatory grief: phenomenology, assessment and clinical interventions.

PubMed

Coelho, Alexandra; de Brito, Maja; Barbosa, António

2018-03-01

This review aims to synthesize recent findings on anticipatory grief in caregivers, referring to its phenomenology, assessment and clinical interventions. Recent literature illustrates the wide scope of the current use of the term anticipatory grief, reflecting caregivers' experiences in different end-of-life trajectories. The anticipation of death is the distinctive aspect of anticipatory grief in the predeath grief continuum, encompassing several progressive losses, past and future. Recently developed assessment instruments capture key aspects of this experience, such as separation anxiety, anticipation of death and future absence of the person, denial and relational losses. Recent findings on prevalence of clinically significant predeath symptoms in caregivers range from 12.5 to 38.5%. Beyond personal and relational factors, difficult circumstances of end-of-life care significantly interfere in adjustment to anticipatory grief. Useful therapeutic interventions were identified, such as validation of grief feelings, increased coping and self-care, anticipation of future losses and reframing roles. However, rigorous interventional studies are needed to create guidelines and the manualization of specific therapeutic approaches to caregiver anticipatory grief. Findings suggest that anticipatory grief dynamics in different end-of-life trajectories should be recognized and adequately assessed. Clinical interventions considered useful to support anticipatory grief caregivers are presented, but further research is needed to verify effectiveness.

Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

2013-12-01

Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

Priority survey between indicators and analytic hierarchy process analysis for green chemistry technology assessment.

PubMed

Kim, Sungjune; Hong, Seokpyo; Ahn, Kilsoo; Gong, Sungyong

2015-01-01

This study presents the indicators and proxy variables for the quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies and evaluates the relative importance of each assessment element by consulting experts from the fields of ecology, chemistry, safety, and public health. The results collected were subjected to an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weights of the indicators and the proxy variables. These weights may prove useful in avoiding having to resort to qualitative means in absence of weights between indicators when integrating the results of quantitative assessment by indicator. This study points to the limitations of current quantitative assessment techniques for green chemistry technologies and seeks to present the future direction for quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies.

Risk perception of future cardiovascular disease in women diagnosed with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy.

PubMed

Traylor, Jessica; Chandrasekaran, Suchitra; Limaye, Meghana; Srinivas, Sindhu; Durnwald, Celeste P

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate a woman's risk perception for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) after being diagnosed with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. A prospective cohort of women diagnosed with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) was studied. Each woman completed two surveys, one prior to hospital discharge and one 2 weeks later, designed to assess knowledge of and risk perception for future CVD based on their recent diagnosis of a HDP. Rates of postpartum depression were also assessed. Of the 146 subjects included, 28% were diagnosed with preeclampsia with severe features, 52.1% with preeclampsia with mild features, and 19.9% had chronic hypertension. Women with severe features and those delivering preterm were more likely to report a perception of increased risk of both recurrent HDP in a future pregnancy (p = 0.004 and 0.005, respectively) and hypertension later in life (p = 0.01 and 0.03, respectively). Women delivering preterm were more likely to report an accurate perception of increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke compared to those delivering at term (p = 0.006 and 0.002, respectively). Disease severity and preterm delivery were associated with a higher likelihood of the perception of an increased risk for both recurrent HDP and hypertension in the future. Only preterm delivery was associated with a higher risk perception for stroke and myocardial infarction. Interventions targeted at improved health awareness in women diagnosed with HDP are warranted.

Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Mexico: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sánchez-Escobedo, Pedro; Esquivel-Ancona, Fayne; Hollingworth, Liz

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the history, current practices, and future directions in intellectual assessment of children and youth in Mexico. Differences and similarities with the United States are explored through the analysis of theoretical perspectives, practices, and policies. A summarized history of intellectual assessment is…

Developmental Programming: State-of-the-Science and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Sutton, Elizabeth F.; Gilmore, L. Anne; Dunger, David B.; Heijmans, Bas T.; Hivert, Marie-France; Ling, Charlotte; Martinez, J. Alfredo; Ozanne, Susan E.; Simmons, Rebecca A.; Szyf, Moshe; Waterland, Robert A.; Redman, Leanne M.; Ravussin, Eric

2016-01-01

Objective On December 8–9, 2014, the Pennington Biomedical Research Center convened a scientific symposium to review the state-of-the-science and future directions for the study of developmental programming of obesity and chronic disease. The objectives of the symposium were to discuss: (i) past and current scientific advances in animal models, population-based cohort studies and human clinical trials, (ii) the state-of-the-science of epigenetic-based research, and (iii) considerations for future studies. Results The overarching goal was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of the scientific field, to identify research gaps and opportunities for future research in order to identify and understand the mechanisms contributing to the developmental programming of health and disease. Conclusions Identifying the mechanisms which cause or contribute to developmental programming of future generations will be invaluable to the scientific and medical community. The ability to intervene during critical periods of prenatal and early postnatal life to promote lifelong health is the ultimate goal. Considerations for future research including the use of animal models, the study design in human cohorts with considerations about the timing of the intrauterine exposure and the resulting tissue specific epigenetic signature were extensively discussed and are presented in this meeting summary. PMID:27037645

Investigation of potential sea level rise impact on the Nile Delta, Egypt using digital elevation models.

PubMed

Hasan, Emad; Khan, Sadiq Ibrahim; Hong, Yang

2015-10-01

In this study, the future impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on the Nile Delta region in Egypt is assessed by evaluating the elevations of two freely available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs): the SRTM and the ASTER-GDEM-V2. The SLR is a significant worldwide dilemma that has been triggered by recent climatic changes. In Egypt, the Nile Delta is projected to face SLR of 1 m by the end of the 21th century. In order to provide a more accurate assessment of the future SLR impact on Nile Delta's land and population, this study corrected the DEM's elevations by using linear regression model with ground elevations from GPS survey. The information for the land cover types and future population numbers were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and the Gridded Population of the Worlds (GPWv3) datasets respectively. The DEM's vertical accuracies were assessed using GPS measurements and the uncertainty analysis revealed that the SRTM-DEM has positive bias of 2.5 m, while the ASTER-GDEM-V2 showed a positive bias of 0.8 m. The future inundated land cover areas and the affected population were illustrated based on two SLR scenarios of 0.5 m and 1 m. The SRTM DEM data indicated that 1 m SLR will affect about 3900 km(2) of cropland, 1280 km(2) of vegetation, 205 km(2) of wetland, 146 km(2) of urban areas and cause more than 6 million people to lose their houses. The overall vulnerability assessment using ASTER-GDEM-V2 indicated that the influence of SLR will be intense and confined along the coastal areas. For instance, the data indicated that 1 m SLR will inundate about 580 Km(2) (6%) of the total land cover areas and approximately 887 thousand people will be relocated. Accordingly, the uncertainty analysis of the DEM's elevations revealed that the ASTER-GDEM-V2 dataset product was considered the best to determine the future impact of SLR on the Nile Delta region.

NORTHWEST OREGON PILOT STUDY AREA (USA): A WATERSHED ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND IMPACTS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The Northwest Oregon Pilot Study Area encompasses approximately 59,167 km2 and comprises a mixtur...

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.

1992-01-01

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Redundant actuator development study. [flight control systems for supersonic transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryder, D. R.

1973-01-01

Current and past supersonic transport configurations are reviewed to assess redundancy requirements for future airplane control systems. Secondary actuators used in stability augmentation systems will probably be the most critical actuator application and require the highest level of redundancy. Two methods of actuator redundancy mechanization have been recommended for further study. Math models of the recommended systems have been developed for use in future computer simulations. A long range plan has been formulated for actuator hardware development and testing in conjunction with the NASA Flight Simulator for Advanced Aircraft.

The diagnostic accuracy of screening questionnaires for the identification of adults with epilepsy: a systematic review.

PubMed

Keezer, Mark R; Bouma, Hanni K; Wolfson, Christina

2014-11-01

To describe the diagnostic accuracy of screening questionnaires to identify epilepsy in adults, we performed a systematic review of diagnostic studies that assessed the sensitivity and specificity of such screening questionnaires as compared to a physician's clinical assessment. We searched Ovid MEDLINE (1946 to present) and Ovid EMBASE (1947 to present) for studies that estimated the sensitivity and specificity of nonphysician administered screening questionnaires for adults with epilepsy. Both telephone and in-person administered questionnaires were included, whether applied to population or hospital/clinic-based cohorts. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Our initial search strategy resulted in 917 records. We found nine studies eligible for inclusion. The estimated sensitivity and specificity of the questionnaires used to identify persons with a lifetime history of epilepsy ranged from 81.5% to 100% and 65.6% to 99.2%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of these questionnaires in identifying persons with active epilepsy ranged from 48.6% to 100% and 73.9% to 99.9%, respectively. Overall we found a high risk of bias in patient selection and study flow in the majority of studies. We identified nine validation studies of epilepsy screening questionnaires, summarized their study characteristics, presented their results, and performed a rigorous quality assessment. This review serves as a basis for future studies by providing a systematic review of existing work. Future research addressing previous limitations will ultimately allow us to more accurately estimate the burden and risk of epilepsy in the general population. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2014 International League Against Epilepsy.

Differential Gene Expression in Explanted Human Retinal Pigment Epithelial Cells 24-Hours Post-Exposure to 532 nm, 3.0 ns Pulsed Laser Light and 1064 nm, 170 ps Pulsed Laser Light 12-Hours Post-Exposure: Results Compendium

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

Additionally, we offer 3 conceptual cartoons outlining our vision for the future progres of laser bioeffects research, metabonomic risk assessment...future progress of laser bioeffects research, metabonomic risk assessment modeling and knowledge building from laser bioeffects data. BACKGROUND In the...our concepts of future laser bioeffects research directions (Figure 5), a metabonomic risk assessment model of laser tissue interaction (Figure 6

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wikman-Svahn, P.

2013-12-01

How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing scientific uncertainty, it will in most cases not be very useful for society. Instead, it is argued that scientific assessments that are used to inform societal decision-making should try to anticipate applications and aim to construct statements that characterize knowledge and uncertainty in a way that are more useful for those anticipated applications, even if this means that the value-free ideal cannot be upheld. This means that scientific assessments should ideally be intertwined with societal applications, and that co-produced knowledge engaging both scientists and end-users are likely to provide better and more useful assessments. The argument is illustrated using real examples from scientific assessments of future sea level rise, with special emphasis on the approaches used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fourth assessment report from 2007, and the fifth assessment report due in September 2013. Finally, it is argued that recent developments in "bottom-up" and "robust" decision-making frameworks provide a way forward to remove many of the pitfalls and problems of communicating uncertainties in policy-relevant scientific assessments.

Back to "the Future": Evidence of a Bifactor Solution for Scores on the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale.

PubMed

McKay, Michael T; Morgan, Grant B; van Exel, N Job; Worrell, Frank C

2015-01-01

Despite its widespread use, disagreement remains regarding the structure of the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS). In particular there is disagreement regarding whether the scale assesses future orientation as a unidimensional or multidimensional (immediate and future) construct. Using 2 samples of high school students in the United Kingdom, 4 models were tested. The totality of results including item loadings, goodness-of-fit indexes, and reliability estimates all supported the bifactor model, suggesting that the 2 hypothesized factors are better understood as grouping or method factors rather than as representative of latent constructs. Accordingly this study supports the unidimensionality of the CFCS and the scoring of all 12 items to produce a global future orientation score. Researchers intending to use the CFCS, and those with existing data, are encouraged to examine a bifactor solution for the scale.

Review of Studies Concerning Electromagnetic Field (EMF) Exposure Assessment in Europe: Low Frequency Fields (50 Hz–100 kHz)

PubMed Central

Gajšek, Peter; Ravazzani, Paolo; Grellier, James; Samaras, Theodoros; Bakos, József; Thuróczy, György

2016-01-01

We aimed to review the findings of exposure assessment studies done in European countries on the exposure of the general public to low frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) of various frequencies. The study shows that outdoor average extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) in public areas in urban environments range between 0.05 and 0.2 µT in terms of flux densities, but stronger values (of the order of a few µT) may occur directly beneath high-voltage power lines, at the walls of transformer buildings, and at the boundary fences of substations. In the indoor environment, high values have been measured close to several domestic appliances (up to the mT range), some of which are held close to the body, e.g., hair dryers, electric shavers. Common sources of exposure to intermediate frequencies (IF) include induction cookers, compact fluorescent lamps, inductive charging systems for electric cars and security or anti-theft devices. No systematic measurement surveys or personal exposimetry data for the IF range have been carried out and only a few reports on measurements of EMFs around such devices are mentioned. According to the available European exposure assessment studies, three population exposure categories were classified by the authors regarding the possible future risk analysis. This classification should be considered a crucial advancement for exposure assessment, which is a mandatory step in any future health risk assessment of EMFs exposure. PMID:27598182

Review of Studies Concerning Electromagnetic Field (EMF) Exposure Assessment in Europe: Low Frequency Fields (50 Hz-100 kHz).

PubMed

Gajšek, Peter; Ravazzani, Paolo; Grellier, James; Samaras, Theodoros; Bakos, József; Thuróczy, György

2016-09-01

We aimed to review the findings of exposure assessment studies done in European countries on the exposure of the general public to low frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) of various frequencies. The study shows that outdoor average extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) in public areas in urban environments range between 0.05 and 0.2 µT in terms of flux densities, but stronger values (of the order of a few µT) may occur directly beneath high-voltage power lines, at the walls of transformer buildings, and at the boundary fences of substations. In the indoor environment, high values have been measured close to several domestic appliances (up to the mT range), some of which are held close to the body, e.g., hair dryers, electric shavers. Common sources of exposure to intermediate frequencies (IF) include induction cookers, compact fluorescent lamps, inductive charging systems for electric cars and security or anti-theft devices. No systematic measurement surveys or personal exposimetry data for the IF range have been carried out and only a few reports on measurements of EMFs around such devices are mentioned. According to the available European exposure assessment studies, three population exposure categories were classified by the authors regarding the possible future risk analysis. This classification should be considered a crucial advancement for exposure assessment, which is a mandatory step in any future health risk assessment of EMFs exposure.

Motivation, study habits, and expectations of medical students in Singapore.

PubMed

Amin, Zubair; Tani, Massimiliano; Eng, Khoo Hoon; Samarasekara, Dujeepa D; Huak, Chan Yiong

2009-12-01

To determine the motivation and incentives in education, learning experience and teaching techniques, and expectations about future careers among medical students from a multi-ethnic Asian country. Pre-validated questionnaire-based survey with stratified random sampling among medical students. The questionnaire combined qualitative responses with semi-quantitative measures of available alternatives. The response rate was 83.1%. The most important factor for pursuing university study was 'prospect of finding an interesting challenging job' (rank 1-75%). Family made a significant contribution in decision making. Given the chance, a majority (67.2%) of respondents would prefer to study overseas. The main deterring factors were cost (67.7%), distance from home (28%), and local opportunity for post-graduation (23.4%). Despite their inclination of study overseas, the majority (73.9%) of the respondents indicated they were either very satisfied or satisfied with their current choice of university study. Only 20% of students were comfortable in asking questions in classroom as asking questions was deemed 'too risky' and 'unnecessary to get better grades'. Students adopted strategies related to assessment and competition to monitor their study. Senior students reported university education as less relevant to their future careers as compared to junior students (p = 0.002). Students' learning behaviour is determined by complex factors such as educational incentives, learning support, assessment and competition. Among several external factors, family, job prospects and expectations about the future play a critical role in education.

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

PubMed

Mudd, Gavin M

2014-02-15

Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online professionalism: A synthetic review.

PubMed

Chretien, Katherine C; Tuck, Matthew G

2015-04-01

The rise of social media has increased connectivity and blurred personal and professional boundaries, bringing new challenges for medical professionalism. Whether traditional professionalism principles apply to the online social media space remains unknown. The purpose of this synthetic literature review was to characterize the original peer-reviewed research studies published between 1 January 2000-1 November 2014 on online professionalism, to assess methodologies and approaches used, and to provide insights to guide future studies in this area. The investigators searched three databases and performed manual searches of bibliographies to identify the 32 studies included. Most studies originated in the USA. Cross-sectional surveys and analyses of publicly available online content were the most common methodologies employed. Studies covered the general areas of use and privacy, assessment of unprofessional online behaviours, consensus-gathering of what constitutes unprofessional or inappropriate online behaviours, and education and policies. Studies were of variable quality; only around half of survey studies had response rates of 50% or greater. Medical trainees were the most common population studied. Future directions for research include public perspectives of online professionalism, impact on patient trust, and how to use social media productively as medical professionals.

Validation of a multifactorial risk factor model used for predicting future caries risk with Nevada adolescents.

PubMed

Ditmyer, Marcia M; Dounis, Georgia; Howard, Katherine M; Mobley, Connie; Cappelli, David

2011-05-20

The objective of this study was to measure the validity and reliability of a multifactorial Risk Factor Model developed for use in predicting future caries risk in Nevada adolescents in a public health setting. This study examined retrospective data from an oral health surveillance initiative that screened over 51,000 students 13-18 years of age, attending public/private schools in Nevada across six academic years (2002/2003-2007/2008). The Risk Factor Model included ten demographic variables: exposure to fluoridation in the municipal water supply, environmental smoke exposure, race, age, locale (metropolitan vs. rural), tobacco use, Body Mass Index, insurance status, sex, and sealant application. Multiple regression was used in a previous study to establish which significantly contributed to caries risk. Follow-up logistic regression ascertained the weight of contribution and odds ratios of the ten variables. Researchers in this study computed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP), negative predictive value (PVN), and prevalence across all six years of screening to assess the validity of the Risk Factor Model. Subjects' overall mean caries prevalence across all six years was 66%. Average sensitivity across all six years was 79%; average specificity was 81%; average PVP was 89% and average PVN was 67%. Overall, the Risk Factor Model provided a relatively constant, valid measure of caries that could be used in conjunction with a comprehensive risk assessment in population-based screenings by school nurses/nurse practitioners, health educators, and physicians to guide them in assessing potential future caries risk for use in prevention and referral practices.

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

Current status and future prospects for the assessment of marine and coastal ecosystem services: a systematic review.

PubMed

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

2013-01-01

Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

Meeting report: international workshop on endocrine disruptors: exposure and potential impact on consumers health.

PubMed

Rousselle, C; Ormsby, J N; Schaefer, B; Lampen, A; Platzek, T; Hirsch-Ernst, K; Warholm, M; Oskarsson, A; Nielsen, P J; Holmer, M L; Emond, C

2013-02-01

The French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Anses) hosted a two-day workshop on Endocrine Disruptors: Exposure and Potential Impact on Consumers Health, bringing together participants from international organizations, academia, research institutes and from German, Swedish, Danish and French governmental agencies. The main objective of the workshop was to share knowledge and experiences on endocrine disruptors (ED) exposure and potential impact on consumers' health, to identify current risk assessment practices and knowledge gaps and issue recommendations on research needs and future collaboration. The following topics were reviewed: (1) Definition of ED, (2) endpoints to be considered for Risk assessment (RA) of ED, (3) non-monotonic dose response curves, (4) studies to be considered for RA (regulatory versus academic studies), (5) point of departure and uncertainty factors, (6) exposure assessment, (7) regulatory issues related to ED. The opinions expressed during this workshop reflect day-to-day experiences from scientists, regulators, researchers, and others from many different countries in the fields of risk assessment, and were regarded by the attendees as an important basis for further discussions. Accordingly, the participants underlined the need for more exchange in the future to share experiences and improve the methodology related to risk assessment for endocrine disrupters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Multivariate analysis of toxicity experimental results of environmental endpoints. (FutureToxII)

EPA Science Inventory

The toxicity of hundreds of chemicals have been assessed in laboratory animal studies through EPA chemical regulation and toxicological research. Currently, over 5000 laboratory animal toxicity studies have been collected in the Toxicity Reference Database (ToxRefDB). In addition...

An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with devel...

Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skogen, Morten D.; Eilola, Kari; Hansen, Jørgen L. S.; Meier, H. E. Markus; Molchanov, Mikhail S.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.

2014-04-01

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (1970-2000) and a future climate (2070-2100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.

Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments.

PubMed

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Sikorska, Anna E; Seibert, Jan

2018-03-01

Climate impact studies regarding floods usually focus on peak discharges and a bivariate assessment of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes is not commonly included. A joint consideration of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, however, is crucial when assessing flood risks for current and future climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology to develop synthetic design hydrographs for future climate conditions that jointly consider peak discharges and hydrograph volumes. First, change factors are derived based on a regional climate model and are applied to observed precipitation and temperature time series. Second, the modified time series are fed into a calibrated hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for future conditions. Third, these time series are used to construct synthetic design hydrographs. The bivariate flood frequency analysis used in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs takes into account the dependence between peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, and represents the shape of the hydrograph. The latter is modeled using a probability density function while the dependence between the design variables peak discharge and hydrograph volume is modeled using a copula. We applied this approach to a set of eight mountainous catchments in Switzerland to construct catchment-specific and season-specific design hydrographs for a control and three scenario climates. Our work demonstrates that projected climate changes have an impact not only on peak discharges but also on hydrograph volumes and on hydrograph shapes both at an annual and at a seasonal scale. These changes are not necessarily proportional which implies that climate impact assessments on future floods should consider more flood characteristics than just flood peaks. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Systematic Review of the Safety and Efficacy of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Disc Degeneration: Insights and Future Directions for Regenerative Therapeutics

PubMed Central

Yim, Rita Lok-Hay; Lee, Juliana Tsz-Yan; Bow, Cora H.; Meij, Björn; Leung, Victor; Cheung, Kenneth M.C.; Vavken, Patrick

2014-01-01

Intervertebral disc degeneration is associated with low-back pain. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been used to “regenerate” the disc. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of comparative controlled studies that have assessed the safety and efficacy of using MSCs for disc regeneration. Literature databases were extensively searched. Trial design, subject-type, MSC sources, injection method, disc assessment, outcome intervals, and complication events were assessed. Validity of each study was performed. Twenty-four animal studies were included with 20.8% of the studies reporting randomization of groups. Trials in humans fulfilling inclusion criteria were not noted. The studies represented 862 discs that were injected with MSCs and 1,603 discs as controls. All three types of MSCs (ie, bone marrow, synovial, and adipose tissues) showed successful inhibition of disc degeneration. Bone-marrow-derived MSCs demonstrated superior quality of repair compared with other non-MSC treatments. A 2.7% overall complication rate was noted, whereby complications were noted only in rabbits. Overall, evidence suggested that MSCs increased disc space height in the majority of animal models. This is the first systematic review to assess the safety and efficacy of MSCs for the treatment of disc degeneration. Short-term MSC transplantation is safe and effective; however, additional, larger, and higher-quality studies are needed to assess the long-term safety and efficacy. Inconsistencies in methodological design and outcome parameters prevent any robust conclusions. Human-based clinical trials are needed. Recommendations are further made to improve efficacy, reduce potential complications, and standardize techniques for future studies. PMID:25050446

SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

EPA Science Inventory

The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

It Figures in Their Future: Assessing the Impact of EverFi, a Virtual Environment, on Learning High School Personal Finance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nosal, Ellen M.

2013-01-01

This quasiexperimental study assessed the impact of a program called EverFi in helping high school students learn personal finance and reports on students' content knowledge, behaviors, attitudes, and perceptions of financial literacy. Since the housing crisis in 2005, the need to improve financial education has become critical. In response,…

The Viability of Individual Oral Assessments for Learners: Insights Gained from Two Intervention Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prinsloo, C. H.; Harvey, J. C.

2016-01-01

It is essential for learners to develop foundational literacy skills, ideally, in the first grade of formal education. These skills are then firmly entrenched and can be expanded in the following grades to form a basis for all future academic studies. Appropriate assessment practices and tools to aid this process can inform the achievement of…

Outdoor recreation trends and futures: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell

2012-01-01

This publication presents a national study of outdoor recreation trends as part of the Renewable Resources Planning Act Assessment by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The objectives are to review past trends in outdoor recreation participation by Americans, to describe in detail current outdoor recreation participation patterns, and to compare...

A Modular Simulation Framework for Assessing Swarm Search Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

SUBTITLE A MODULAR SIMULATION FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING SWARM SEARCH MODELS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Blake M. Wanier 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...Numerical studies demonstrate the ability to leverage the developed simulation and analysis framework to investigate three canonical swarm search models ...as benchmarks for future exploration of more sophisticated swarm search scenarios. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Swarm Search, Search Theory, Modeling Framework

Tanzania at the Turn of the Century: Background Papers and Statistics. A World Bank Country Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Bank, Washington, DC.

This report presents lessons from Tanzania's development experience of the past four decades, with emphasis on the period since the last report (1996), and assesses the imperatives for higher sustained growth and better livelihood for its citizens in the future. The background papers review and assess Tanzania's actual growth and poverty reduction…

Introducing an Instrument to Assess Time Orientation and Time Relation in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mello, Zena R.; Finan, Laura J.; Worrell, Frank C.

2013-01-01

We report on two studies that examine new instruments that assess time orientation and time relation in adolescents. These concepts refer to how individuals think about the past, the present, and the future, with time orientation defined as the emphasis one gives toward each time period and time relation defined as the degree one perceives that…

Immunity to current H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses: From vaccines to adaptive immunity in wild birds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Following the 2014-2015 outbreaks of H5N2 and H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the U.S., studies were performed to assess the immunity required for protection against future outbreaks should they occur. We assessed the ability of vaccines to induce protection of chickens and turkeys...

A Diagnostic Assessment of Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization for Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P.; Hadka, D.; Herman, J.; Kasprzyk, J.; Kollat, J.

2012-04-01

This study contributes a rigorous diagnostic assessment of state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) and highlights key advances that the water resources field can exploit to better discover the critical tradeoffs constraining our systems. This study provides the most comprehensive diagnostic assessment of MOEAs for water resources to date, exploiting more than 100,000 MOEA runs and trillions of design evaluations. The diagnostic assessment measures the effectiveness, efficiency, reliability, and controllability of ten benchmark MOEAs for a representative suite of water resources applications addressing rainfall-runoff calibration, long-term groundwater monitoring (LTM), and risk-based water supply portfolio planning. The suite of problems encompasses a range of challenging problem properties including (1) many-objective formulations with 4 or more objectives, (2) multi-modality (or false optima), (3) nonlinearity, (4) discreteness, (5) severe constraints, (6) stochastic objectives, and (7) non-separability (also called epistasis). The applications are representative of the dominant problem classes that have shaped the history of MOEAs in water resources and that will be dominant foci in the future. Recommendations are provided for which modern MOEAs should serve as tools and benchmarks in the future water resources literature.

Imagining a brighter future: the effect of positive imagery training on mood, prospective mental imagery and emotional bias in older adults.

PubMed

Murphy, Susannah E; Clare O'Donoghue, M; Drazich, Erin H S; Blackwell, Simon E; Christina Nobre, Anna; Holmes, Emily A

2015-11-30

Positive affect and optimism play an important role in healthy ageing and are associated with improved physical and cognitive health outcomes. This study investigated whether it is possible to boost positive affect and associated positive biases in this age group using cognitive training. The effect of computerised imagery-based cognitive bias modification on positive affect, vividness of positive prospective imagery and interpretation biases in older adults was measured. 77 older adults received 4 weeks (12 sessions) of imagery cognitive bias modification or a control condition. They were assessed at baseline, post-training and at a one-month follow-up. Both groups reported decreased negative affect and trait anxiety, and increased optimism across the three assessments. Imagery cognitive bias modification significantly increased the vividness of positive prospective imagery post-training, compared with the control training. Contrary to our hypothesis, there was no difference between the training groups in negative interpretation bias. This is a useful demonstration that it is possible to successfully engage older adults in computer-based cognitive training and to enhance the vividness of positive imagery about the future in this group. Future studies are needed to assess the longer-term consequences of such training and the impact on affect and wellbeing in more vulnerable groups. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johannesson, G

2010-03-17

Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that themore » average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.« less

Use of the Finnish Information System on Occupational Exposure (FINJEM) in epidemiologic, surveillance, and other applications.

PubMed

Kauppinen, Timo; Uuksulainen, Sanni; Saalo, Anja; Mäkinen, Ilpo; Pukkala, Eero

2014-04-01

This paper reviews the use of the Finnish Information System on Occupational Exposure (Finnish job-exposure matrix, FINJEM) in different applications in Finland and other countries. We describe and discuss studies on FINJEM and studies utilizing FINJEM in regard to the validity of exposure estimates, occupational epidemiology, hazard surveillance and prevention, the assessment of health risks and the burden of disease, the assessment of exposure trends and future hazards, and the construction of job-exposure matrices (JEMs) in countries other than Finland. FINJEM can be used as an exposure assessment tool in occupational epidemiology, particularly in large register-based studies. It also provides information for hazard surveillance at the national level. It is able to identify occupations with high average exposures to chemical agents and can therefore serve the priority setting of prevention. However, it has only limited use at the workplace level due to the variability of exposure between workplaces. The national estimates of exposure and their temporal trends may contribute to the assessment of both the recent and future burden of work-related health outcomes. FINJEM has also proved to be useful in the construction of other national JEMs, for example in the Nordic Occupational Cancer study in the Nordic countries. FINJEM is a quantitative JEM, which can serve many purposes and its comprehensive documentation also makes it potentially useful in countries other than Finland.

To Tip or Not to Tip: The Case of the Congo Basin Rainforest Realm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S.; Bednar, J. E.; Fath, B. D.; Winter, P. A.

2017-12-01

The future response of the Congo basin rainforest, the second largest tropical carbon reservoir, to climate change is still under debate. Different Climate projections exist stating increase and decrease in rainfall and different changes in rainfall patterns. Within this study we assess all options of climate change possibilities to define the climatic thresholds of Congo basin rainforest stability and assess the limiting conditions for rainforest persistence. We use field data from 199 research plots from the Western Congo basin to calibrate and validate a complex BioGeoChemistry model (BGC-MAN) and assess model performance against an array of possible future climates. Next, we analyze the reasons for the occurrence of tipping points, their spatial and temporal probability of occurrence, will present effects of hysteresis and derive probabilistic spatial-temporal resilience landscapes for the region. Additionally, we will analyze attractors of forest growth dynamics and assess common linear measures for early warning signals of sudden shifts in system dynamics for their robustness in the context of the Congo Basin case, and introduce the correlation integral as a nonlinear measure of risk assessment.

Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline Emissions Study

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Understanding the effects of gasoline sulfur level on the in-use fleet is important for assessing emissions inventories and impacts of future policy decisions. Test fuels were two non-ethanol gasolines with properties typical of certification fuel.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Preparation for future learning: a missing competency in health professions education?

PubMed

Mylopoulos, Maria; Brydges, Ryan; Woods, Nicole N; Manzone, Julian; Schwartz, Daniel L

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that clinicians may not be learning effectively from all facets of their practice, potentially because their training has not fully prepared them to do so. To address this gap, we argue that there is a need to identify systems of instruction and assessment that enhance clinicians' 'preparation for future learning'. Preparation for future learning (PFL) is understood to be the capacity to learn new information, to use resources effectively and innovatively, and to invent new strategies for learning and problem solving in practice. Education researchers have developed study designs that use dynamic assessments to measure what trainees have acquired in the past, as well as what they are able to learn in the present. More recently, researchers have also started to emphasise and measure whether and how trainees take action to gain the information they need to learn. Knowing that there are study designs and emerging metrics for assessing PFL, the next question is how to design instruction that helps trainees develop PFL capacities. Although research evidence is still accumulating, the current evidence base suggests training that encourages 'productive failure' through guided discovery learning (i.e. where trainees solve problems and perform tasks without direct instruction, though often with some form of feedback) creates challenging conditions that enhance learning and equip trainees with PFL-related behaviours. Preparation for future learning and the associated capacity of being adaptive as one learns in and from training and clinical practice have been missed in most contemporary training and assessment systems. We propose a research agenda that (i) explores how real-world adaptive expert activity unfolds in the health care workplace to inform the design of instruction for developing PFL, (ii) identifies measures of behaviours that relate to PFL, and (iii) addresses potential sociocultural barriers that limit clinicians' opportunities to learn from their daily practice. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expected changes in future agro-climatological conditions in Northeast Thailand and their differences between general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo; Goto, Shinkichi; Sawano, Shinji; Hasegawa, Toshihiro

2011-12-01

We have studied future changes in the atmospheric and hydrological environments in Northeast Thailand from the viewpoint of risk assessment of future cultural environments in crop fields. To obtain robust and reliable estimation for future climate, ten general circulation models under three warming scenarios, B1, A1B, and A2, were used in this study. The obtained change trends show that daily maximum air temperature and precipitation will increase by 2.6°C and 4.0%, respectively, whereas soil moisture will decrease by c.a. 1% point in volumetric water content at the end of this century under the A1B scenario. Seasonal contrasts in precipitation will intensify: precipitation increases in the rainy season and precipitation decreases in the dry season. Soil moisture will slightly decrease almost throughout the year. Despite a homogeneous increase in the air temperature over Northeast Thailand, a future decrease in soil water content will show a geographically inhomogeneous distribution: Soil will experience a relative larger decrease in wetness at a shallow depth on the Khorat plateau than in the surrounding mountainous area, reflecting vegetation cover and soil texture. The predicted increase in air temperature is relatively consistent between general circulation models. In contrast, relatively large intermodel differences in precipitation, especially in long-term trends, produce unwanted bias errors in the estimation of other hydrological elements, such as soil moisture and evaporation, and cause uncertainties in projection of the agro-climatological environment. Offline hydrological simulation with a wide precipitation range is one strategy to compensate for such uncertainties and to obtain reliable risk assessment of future cultural conditions in rainfed paddy fields in Northeast Thailand.

Measuring suicidality using the personality assessment inventory: a convergent validity study with federal inmates.

PubMed

Patry, Marc W; Magaletta, Philip R

2015-02-01

Although numerous studies have examined the psychometric properties and clinical utility of the Personality Assessment Inventory in correctional contexts, only two studies to date have specifically focused on suicide ideation. This article examines the convergent validity of the Suicide Ideation Scale and the Suicide Potential Index on the Personality Assessment Inventory in a large, nontreatment sample of male and female federal inmates (N = 1,120). The data indicated robust validity support for both the Suicide Ideation Scale and Suicide Potential Index, which were each correlated with a broad group of validity indices representing multiple assessment modalities. Recommendations for future research to build upon these findings through replication and extension are made. © The Author(s) 2014.

Coal resources, reserves and peak coal production in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milici, Robert C.; Flores, Romeo M.; Stricker, Gary D.

2013-01-01

In spite of its large endowment of coal resources, recent studies have indicated that United States coal production is destined to reach a maximum and begin an irreversible decline sometime during the middle of the current century. However, studies and assessments illustrating coal reserve data essential for making accurate forecasts of United States coal production have not been compiled on a national basis. As a result, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the accuracy of the production forecasts. A very large percentage of the coal mined in the United States comes from a few large-scale mines (mega-mines) in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. Reported reserves at these mines do not account for future potential reserves or for future development of technology that may make coal classified currently as resources into reserves in the future. In order to maintain United States coal production at or near current levels for an extended period of time, existing mines will eventually have to increase their recoverable reserves and/or new large-scale mines will have to be opened elsewhere. Accordingly, in order to facilitate energy planning for the United States, this paper suggests that probabilistic assessments of the remaining coal reserves in the country would improve long range forecasts of coal production. As it is in United States coal assessment projects currently being conducted, a major priority of probabilistic assessments would be to identify the numbers and sizes of remaining large blocks of coal capable of supporting large-scale mining operations for extended periods of time and to conduct economic evaluations of those resources.

High fractional exhaled nitric oxide and sputum eosinophils are associated with an increased risk of future virus-induced exacerbations: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Bjerregaard, A; Laing, I A; Backer, V; Sverrild, A; Khoo, S-K; Chidlow, G; Sikazwe, C; Smith, D W; Le Souëf, P; Porsbjerg, C

2017-08-01

The major trigger of asthma exacerbations is infection with a respiratory virus, most commonly rhinovirus. Type 2 inflammation is known to be associated with an increased risk of exacerbations in general. Whether type 2 inflammation at baseline increases the risk of future virus-induced exacerbations is unknown. To assess whether type 2 inflammation is associated with an increased risk of virus-induced exacerbations of asthma. Stable asthmatics had spirometry, skin prick test, measurement of FeNO and sputum induced for differential cell counts. Patients were followed up for 18 months, during which they were assessed at the research unit when they had symptoms of an exacerbation. Nasal swabs collected at these assessments underwent viral detection by PCR. A total of 81 asthma patients were recruited, of which 22 (27%) experienced an exacerbation during the follow-up period. Of these, 15 (68%) had a respiratory virus detected at exacerbation. Sputum eosinophils >1% at baseline increased the risk of having a subsequent virus-induced exacerbation (HR 7.6 95% CI: 1.6-35.2, P=.010) as did having FeNO >25 ppb (HR 3.4 95% CI: 1.1-10.4, P=.033). Established type 2 inflammation during stable disease is a risk factor for virus-induced exacerbations in a real-life setting. Measures of type 2 inflammation, such as sputum eosinophils and FeNO, could be included in the risk assessment of patients with asthma in future studies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hopelessness and future thinking in parasuicide: the role of perfectionism.

PubMed

Hunter, Elizabeth C; O'Connor, Rory C

2003-11-01

This study had three aims: (1) to independently replicate the future thinking effect, that parasuicides, when compared with controls, show a deficit in positive future thinking but no increase in negative future thinking; (2) to determine whether positive future thinking and socially prescribed perfectionism discriminate general hospital parasuicides from controls beyond measures of affect and; (3) to explore the relationship between future thinking and perfectionism. A cross-sectional design was employed. Three groups of participants took part: hospital parasuicide patients (N=22), hospital controls (N=22) and community controls (N=21). Parasuicide patients admitted, via accident and emergency, to a general hospital were matched with hospital and community controls and assessed on measures of hopelessness, depression, anxiety, perfectionism, and future thinking. There was evidence to support the future thinking effect. A discriminant function analysis revealed that social perfectionism and positive future thinking did indeed discriminate parasuicides from controls beyond the effects of hopelessness, depression, and anxiety. Exploratory relationships between perfectionism and positive future thinking were also reported. The results reinforce the importance of future thinking in parasuicide. Moreover, the role of social perfectionism in the suicidal process was elucidated and ought to be replicated within a prospective design.

Implementing a geriatric assessment in cooperative group clinical cancer trials: CALGB 360401.

PubMed

Hurria, Arti; Cirrincione, Constance T; Muss, Hyman B; Kornblith, Alice B; Barry, William; Artz, Andrew S; Schmieder, Linda; Ansari, Rafat; Tew, William P; Weckstein, Douglas; Kirshner, Jeffrey; Togawa, Kayo; Hansen, Kurt; Katheria, Vani; Stone, Richard; Galinsky, Ilene; Postiglione, John; Cohen, Harvey Jay

2011-04-01

Factors captured in a geriatric assessment can predict morbidity and mortality in older adults, but are not routinely measured in cancer clinical trials. This study evaluated the implementation of a geriatric assessment tool in the cooperative group setting. Patients age ≥ 65 with cancer, who enrolled on cooperative group cancer trials, were eligible to enroll on Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) 360401. They completed a geriatric assessment tool before initiation of protocol therapy, consisting of valid and reliable geriatric assessment measures which are primarily self-administered and require minimal resources and time by healthcare providers. The assessment measures functional status, comorbidity, cognitive function, psychological state, social support, and nutritional status. The protocol specified criteria for incorporation of the tool in future cooperative group trials was based on the time to completion and percent of patients who could complete their portion without assistance. Patient satisfaction with the tool was captured. Of the 93 patients who enrolled in this study, five (5%) met criteria for cognitive impairment and three did not complete the cognitive screen, leaving 85 assessable patients (median age, 72 years). The median time to complete the geriatric assessment tool was 22 minutes, 87% of patients (n = 74) completed their portion without assistance, 92% (n = 78) were satisfied with the questionnaire length, 95% (n = 81) reported no difficult questions, and 96% (n = 82) reported no upsetting questions. One hundred percent of health care professionals completed their portion. This brief, primarily self-administered geriatric assessment tool met the protocol specified criteria for inclusion in future cooperative group clinical trials.

FY11 Facility Assessment Study for Aeronautics Test Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loboda, John A.; Sydnor, George H.

2013-01-01

This paper presents the approach and results for the Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) FY11 Facility Assessment Project. ATP commissioned assessments in FY07 and FY11 to aid in the understanding of the current condition and reliability of its facilities and their ability to meet current and future (five year horizon) test requirements. The principle output of the assessment was a database of facility unique, prioritized investments projects with budgetary cost estimates. This database was also used to identify trends for the condition of facility systems.

Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olefeldt, David; Goswami, S.; Grosse, G.; Hayes, D.; Hugelius, G.; Kuhry, P.; McGuire, A. David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Sannel, A.B.K.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Turetsky, M.R.

2016-01-01

Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice-rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 × 106 km2, thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover ∼20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale.

Preparing physical therapy students for the role of clinical educator: a case study report.

PubMed

Dockter, Mary; Roller, Joellen; Eckert, Jody

2013-01-01

The purpose of this case report was to describe an innovative model for transforming physical therapist students into clinical instructors with the use of a pro bono clinic. This model may assist other academic programs in creating effective approaches to transition entry-level students into future quality clinical instructors. Third year physical therapist students served as clinical instructors for second year students. Peer and self assessments were collected to assess intended objectives. Second year students were made more aware of the role of the clinical instructor and were able to evaluate the effectiveness of clinical teaching and third year students appreciated the impact of clinical teaching and increased their desire to become clinical instructors in the future. Student self and peer assessments reveal that this experiential model is an effective way of transitioning entry-level physical therapist students into the role of clinical instructor.

Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

PubMed

Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2014-03-01

This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

2017-12-01

A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on agriculture,human health, management of urban infrastructure and water resources.

Assessment of the feasibility and clinical value of further research to evaluate the management options for children with Down syndrome and otitis media with effusion: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Fortnum, Heather; Leighton, Paul; Smith, Murray D; Brown, Lisa; Jones, Matthew; Benton, Claire; Marder, Elizabeth; Marshall, Andrew; Sutton, Kate

2014-09-01

There is clinical uncertainty of the benefits and costs of different treatment options for children with Down syndrome who have glue ear. This study was designed to assess the extent of this lack of knowledge and determine if pursuing further information would be practical, beneficial and cost-effective. To assess the level and practical effect of current uncertainty around treatment options for children with Down syndrome and glue ear. To assess the feasibility of studying the options for management of glue ear in children with Down syndrome via a randomised controlled trial (RCT) or multicentre prospective cohort study by evaluating the willingness of (1) parents to agree to randomisation for their children and (2) clinicians to recruit participants to a definitive study. To undertake value of information analyses to demonstrate the potential economic benefit from undertaking further research. A feasibility study exploring the views of parents of children with Down syndrome and professionals who have responsibility for the health and education of children with Down syndrome, on the participation in, and value of, future research into interventions for glue ear. Data were collected from parents via self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews and focus groups and from professionals via online questionnaires and a Delphi review exercise. Development of economic models to represent clinical pathways of care and a RCT informed a value of information (VOI) analysis. UK (professionals); East Midlands region of the UK (parents). Parents of children aged 1-11 years with Down syndrome (n = 156). Professionals including audiologists, ear, nose and throat surgeons, audiological physicians, speech and language therapists, and teachers of the deaf (n = 128). Quantitative and qualitative data on parental views and experiences of glue ear and its effects; interventions and treatment received; taking part in research and factors that would encourage or discourage participation; and the importance of various outcome domains to them and for their children. For professionals: information on caseloads; approaches to clinical management; opinions on frequency and significance of the consequences of glue ear for this population; importance of different outcome measures; opinions of interventions and their role in future research; views on health research; facilitators and barriers to recruitment, and participation in research involving RCTs. The complexity of the experience and individual characteristics of children with Down syndrome poses challenges for the design of any future research but these challenges were not considered by professionals to raise sufficient barriers to prevent it being undertaken. Parents were generally supportive of the need for, and value of, research but identified practical and emotional issues that would need addressing. Glue ear was considered to impact more on speech, language and communication than on hearing. Outcome measures for future research would need to evaluate these elements but measures should be designed specifically for the population. Parents and professionals identified randomisation as a significant barrier to participation. The VOI analyses identified lack of data as problematic but concluded that a future trial involving surgical intervention would be feasible at costs of < £650,000. Future research into the benefits of interventions for glue ear in children with Down syndrome would be feasible and could be cost-effective but should be carefully designed to facilitate and maximise participation from parents and professionals responsible for recruitment. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Predicting fruit consumption: the role of habits, previous behavior and mediation effects

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This study assessed the role of habits and previous behavior in predicting fruit consumption as well as their additional predictive contribution besides socio-demographic and motivational factors. In the literature, habits are proposed as a stable construct that needs to be controlled for in longitudinal analyses that predict behavior. The aim of this study is to provide empirical evidence for the inclusion of either previous behavior or habits. Methods A random sample of 806 Dutch adults (>18 years) was invited by an online survey panel of a private research company to participate in an online study on fruit consumption. A longitudinal design (N = 574) was used with assessments at baseline and after one (T2) and two months (T3). Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to assess the differential value of habit and previous behavior in the prediction of fruit consumption. Results Eighty percent of habit strength could be explained by habit strength one month earlier, and 64% of fruit consumption could be explained by fruit consumption one month earlier. Regression analyses revealed that the model with motivational constructs explained 41% of the behavioral variance at T2 and 38% at T3. The addition of previous behavior and habit increased the explained variance up to 66% at T2 and to 59% at T3. Inclusion of these factors resulted in non-significant contributions of the motivational constructs. Furthermore, our findings showed that the effect of habit strength on future behavior was to a large extent mediated by previous behavior. Conclusions Both habit and previous behavior are important as predictors of future behavior, and as educational objectives for behavior change programs. Our results revealed less stability for the constructs over time than expected. Habit strength was to a large extent mediated by previous behavior and our results do not strongly suggest a need for the inclusion of both constructs. Future research needs to assess the conditions that determine direct influences of both previous behavior and habit, since these influences may differ per type of health behavior, per context stability in which the behavior is performed, and per time frame used for predicting future behavior. PMID:25037859

Impact of National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) use and score interpretation on states' inquiry-based science education policies and practices: A descriptive study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conley, David M.

This study examined the influence of use and interpretation of National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science results on science education policies and practices in the United States, in the context of teaching and learning through inquiry and the assessment of student inquiry achievement. State assessment directors, NAEP coordinators, and science education specialists nationwide were invited to participate in the study by responding to a Web-based self-administered survey instrument. Sixty-seven percent of the population responded, providing both quantitative and qualitative data through selected-response and open-ended survey items, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that: (a) not all states interpret NAEP science results as an indicator of students' abilities to undertake inquiry investigations or understand the nature of inquiry---in fact, states view their own science assessments as more indicative of expectations regarding inquiry achievement; (b) most states have made changes to science curricular frameworks and assessments since the last NAEP science administration in 2000, so that more emphasis is placed on inquiry-based instruction and assessment of inquiry achievement---however, NAEP results have had a minor influence on these changes; (c) fewer states have made changes in legislation, policies, and professional development that reflect greater emphasis on inquiry, and those that did felt that NAEP results had no significant impact; (d) NAEP's influence has changed since the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act of 2001, but it remains minor since NAEP is still perceived as a "low stakes" test; (e) state officials believe NAEP's influence will increase significantly after the results of NAEP science 2005 are released and interpreted and as NCLB accountability provisions in science take hold in 2007--2008. The implications of the study's findings are discussed in reference to the theoretical and practical knowledge-bases concerning the consequences of assessment; the interpretation and use of future NAEP results to inform state science education systems; and NAEP validity studies and revisions to the NAEP assessment framework that may ensue. Limitations of the study's findings and directions for future research are also addressed.

Running on Empty: The Development of Helicopter Aerial Refueling and Implications for Future USAF Combat Rescue Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-03-01

Haiti, Somalia, Liberia, and Bosnia. The future appears very busy for Air Force rescue units as well. According to ?Strategic Assessment 1996?Instruments...13 COMTEMPORARY ROLE OF AIR REFUELING IN US AIR FORCE SEARCH AND RESCUE...places such as Haiti, Somalia, Liberia, and Bosnia. The future appears very busy for Air Force rescue units as well. According to “Strategic Assessment

Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashani, A. K.

1980-01-01

Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

Priority survey between indicators and analytic hierarchy process analysis for green chemistry technology assessment

PubMed Central

Kim, Sungjune; Hong, Seokpyo; Ahn, Kilsoo; Gong, Sungyong

2015-01-01

Objectives This study presents the indicators and proxy variables for the quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies and evaluates the relative importance of each assessment element by consulting experts from the fields of ecology, chemistry, safety, and public health. Methods The results collected were subjected to an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weights of the indicators and the proxy variables. Results These weights may prove useful in avoiding having to resort to qualitative means in absence of weights between indicators when integrating the results of quantitative assessment by indicator. Conclusions This study points to the limitations of current quantitative assessment techniques for green chemistry technologies and seeks to present the future direction for quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies. PMID:26206364

Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

75 FR 9232 - Measuring Progress on Food Safety: Current Status and Future Directions; Public Workshop

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-01

... for assessing progress in food safety and associated methodological issues and to discuss potential.... The FoodNet also conducts special studies to determine risk factors for acquiring those illnesses... production, studies on the prevalence of specific pathogens in specific classes of food, and studies of...

Perspectives and Plans for Graduate Studies. 14. Physics and Astronomy 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ontario Council on Graduate Studies, Toronto. Advisory Committee on Academic Planning.

On the instruction of the Council of Ontario Universities, the Advisory Committee on Academic Planning has conducted a planning assessment for graduate studies in physics and astronomy. Contents of the report encompass future enrollment projections in physics graduate studies, the distribution of physics graduate students among the universities,…

Grid Integration Webinars | Energy Systems Integration Facility | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Vision Future. The study used detailed nodal simulations of the Western Interconnection system with greater than 35% wind energy, based on scenarios from the DOE Wind Vision study to assess the operability Renewable Energy Integration in California April 14, 2016 Greg Brinkman discussed the Low Carbon Grid Study

Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

PubMed Central

Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

2016-01-01

Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items were independently associated with providers’ risk determination than with future caries status. These university dental providers considered many items in decision making regarding patient risk, suggesting that, in turn, these comprehensive CRA forms could also aid individualized care, linking risk assessment to disease management. Knowledge Transfer Statement: Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for patient-tailored, prevention-focused caries management. Studies show mixed predictive performance of pediatric CRA instruments, but little is known regarding how information captured in CRA forms guides clinical decision making. This study, in high-caries prevalence 6- to 72-mo-olds, demonstrates the following: 1) most items in a CRA instrument were independently associated with practitioners’ risk designations, 2) practitioners’ risk designations were significantly associated with future disease, and 3) of baseline measures associated with future caries, evident decay was the strongest independent indicator of future caries status. Although current disease (resulting from existing pathological and protective factor imbalance) may sufficiently predict future caries status in populations, other CRA items incorporated during risk categorization could aid practitioners to develop individualized intervention strategies against identified risk factors. PMID:27403458

Does cultural competency training of health professionals improve patient outcomes? A systematic review and proposed algorithm for future research.

PubMed

Lie, Désirée A; Lee-Rey, Elizabeth; Gomez, Art; Bereknyei, Sylvia; Braddock, Clarence H

2011-03-01

Cultural competency training has been proposed as a way to improve patient outcomes. There is a need for evidence showing that these interventions reduce health disparities. The objective was to conduct a systematic review addressing the effects of cultural competency training on patient-centered outcomes; assess quality of studies and strength of effect; and propose a framework for future research. The authors performed electronic searches in the MEDLINE/PubMed, ERIC, PsycINFO, CINAHL and Web of Science databases for original articles published in English between 1990 and 2010, and a bibliographic hand search. Studies that reported cultural competence educational interventions for health professionals and measured impact on patients and/or health care utilization as primary or secondary outcomes were included. Four authors independently rated studies for quality using validated criteria and assessed the training effect on patient outcomes. Due to study heterogeneity, data were not pooled; instead, qualitative synthesis and analysis were conducted. Seven studies met inclusion criteria. Three involved physicians, two involved mental health professionals and two involved multiple health professionals and students. Two were quasi-randomized, two were cluster randomized, and three were pre/post field studies. Study quality was low to moderate with none of high quality; most studies did not adequately control for potentially confounding variables. Effect size ranged from no effect to moderately beneficial (unable to assess in two studies). Three studies reported positive (beneficial) effects; none demonstrated a negative (harmful) effect. There is limited research showing a positive relationship between cultural competency training and improved patient outcomes, but there remains a paucity of high quality research. Future work should address challenges limiting quality. We propose an algorithm to guide educators in designing and evaluating curricula, to rigorously demonstrate the impact on patient outcomes and health disparities.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

STEM Education as a Gateway to Future Astronomy: the Case of Ethiopian Universities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhana Teklr, Kelali

2015-08-01

Over last two decades education sector in Ethiopia has got due attention. To meet the education deficit of the nation number of universities has been increased from two to thirty eight and twelve more are coming soon. The proliferation has brought a spillover effect that universities have to compete for center excellence in research and education. Convincingly, government’s support is geared towards knowledge-based and innovation-driven system of education to back up the green economic development plan.In an effort to build inclusive economic development emphasis is given to innovative competency building through science and technology fields. The universities in the nation have establish laboratories to educate school boys and girls at early stage of their schooling in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) subjects as means to paving future destiny. Though most of the astronomy and space science labs are virtual ones; more and more student have been inspired and want astronomy and space science as their future career fields. Assessment study carried out in universities running STEM education showed that there is a mismatch between the capacity of the labs and number of students wanted to study astronomy and space sciences. The universities have endorsed that STEM education is the gateway to future astronomy and strongly advised concerned bodies and partnering institutions to collaboratively work to intensify the teaching-learning of STEM subjects.The assessment study compiled astronomic and space science exercises carried out by instructors and students and the document is ready to be disseminated to universities and middle and secondary schools to promote the science nationwide. The results have motivated university instructors, science and technology professionals, researchers and policy makers to be more involved in shaping future destiny of the young generation and have their shown determination to support the STEM education so that it will serve as a gateway for future astronomy education and research in the nation.

Sustainable dimension adaptation measure in green township assessment criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaman, R.; Thadaniti, S.; Ahmad, N.; Halil, F. M.; Nasir, N. M.

2018-05-01

Urbanized areas are typically the most significant sources of environmental degradation, thus, an urban assessment criteria tools aiming at equally adapted sustainability dimensions need to be firmly embedded in benchmarking planning and design framework and upon occupancy. The need for integral systematic rating is recognized in order to evaluate the performance of sustainable neighborhood and to promote sustainable urban development. In this study, Green Building Index Township Assessment Criteria (GBI-TAC) will be measure on holistic sustainable dimension pillar (SDP) adaptation in order to assess and redefine the current sustainability assessment criteria for future sustainable neighborhood development (SND). The objective of the research is to find-out whether the current GBI-TAC and its variables fulfilled the holistic SDP adaptations towards sustainable neighborhood development in Malaysia. The stakeholder-inclusion approached is used in this research in order to gather professional’s stakeholders’ opinions regarding the SDP adaptations for sustainable neighborhood development. The data were analysed using IBM SPSS AMOS22 Structural Equation Modelling. The findings suggested an adaptation gap of SDP in current GBI-TAC even though all core-criteria supported SDP adaptation, hence lead to further review and refinement for future Neighborhood Assessment Criteria in Malaysia.

Development and validation of a risk assessment tool for gastric cancer in a general Japanese population.

PubMed

Iida, Masahiro; Ikeda, Fumie; Hata, Jun; Hirakawa, Yoichiro; Ohara, Tomoyuki; Mukai, Naoko; Yoshida, Daigo; Yonemoto, Koji; Esaki, Motohiro; Kitazono, Takanari; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Ninomiya, Toshiharu

2018-05-01

There have been very few reports of risk score models for the development of gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk assessment tool for discerning future gastric cancer risk in Japanese. A total of 2444 subjects aged 40 years or over were followed up for 14 years from 1988 (derivation cohort), and 3204 subjects of the same age group were followed up for 5 years from 2002 (validation cohort). The weighting (risk score) of each risk factor for predicting future gastric cancer in the risk assessment tool was determined based on the coefficients of a Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort. The goodness of fit of the established risk assessment tool was assessed using the c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in the validation cohort. During the follow-up, gastric cancer developed in 90 subjects in the derivation cohort and 35 subjects in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the risk prediction model for gastric cancer was established using significant risk factors: age, sex, the combination of Helicobacter pylori antibody and pepsinogen status, hemoglobin A1c level, and smoking status. The incidence of gastric cancer increased significantly as the sum of risk scores increased (P trend < 0.001). The risk assessment tool was validated internally and showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.43) in the validation cohort. We developed a risk assessment tool for gastric cancer that provides a useful guide for stratifying an individual's risk of future gastric cancer.

The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

PubMed

Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

2014-04-01

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

PubMed Central

Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

2014-01-01

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Key Points Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms Near-future assets will not improve the situation PMID:26213516

Managing hardwood-softwood mixtures for future forests in eastern North America: assessing suitability to projected climate change

Treesearch

John M. Kabrick; Kenneth L. Clark; Anthony W. D' Amato; Daniel C. Dey; Laura S. Kenefic; Christel C. Kern; Benjamin O. Knapp; David A. MacLean; Patricia Raymond; Justin D. Waskiewicz

2017-01-01

Despite growing interest in management strategies for climate change adaptation, there are few methods for assessing the ability of stands to endure or adapt to projected future climates. We developed a means for assigning climate "Compatibility" and "Adaptability" scores to stands for assessing the suitability of tree species for projected climate...

Ensemble tropical-extratropical cyclone coastal flood hazard assessment with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, P. M.; Lin, N.; Colle, B.

2016-12-01

A challenge with quantifying future changes in coastal flooding for the U.S. East Coast is that climate change has varying effects on different types of storms, in addition to raising mean sea levels. Moreover, future flood hazard uncertainties are large and come from many sources. Here, a new coastal flood hazard assessment approach is demonstrated that separately evaluates and then combines probabilities of storm tide generated from tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs). The separation enables us to incorporate climate change impacts on both types of storms. The assessment accounts for epistemic storm tide uncertainty using an ensemble of different prior studies and methods of assessment, merged with uncertainty in climate change effects on storm tides and sea levels. The assessment is applied for New York Harbor, under the auspices of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). In the New York Bight region and much of the U.S. East Coast, differing flood exceedance curve slopes for TCs and ETCs arise due to their differing physics. It is demonstrated how errors can arise for this region from mixing together storm types in an extreme value statistical analysis, a common practice when using observations. The effects of climate change on TC and ETC flooding have recently been assessed for this region, for TCs using a Global Climate Model (GCM) driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic modeling, and for ETCs using a GCM-driven multilinear regression-based storm surge model. The results of these prior studies are applied to our central estimates of the flood exceedance curve probabilities, transforming them for climate change effects. The results are useful for decision-makers because they highlight the large uncertainty in present-day and future flood risk, and also for scientists because they identify the areas where further research is most needed.

Impacts of vanpooling in Pennsylvania and future opportunities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-30

This study conducted a state survey to assess the feasibility of expanded vanpool operations in Pennsylvania : and financing models available. An overview of current commuting patterns and vanpool operations in : Pennsylvania is presented and an empl...

An Independent Scientific Assessment of Well Stimulation in California Volume I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jane C.S. Long; Laura C. Feinstein; Birkholzer, Jens

In 2013, the California Legislature passed Senate Bill 4 (SB 4), setting the framework for regulation of well stimulation technologies in California, including hydraulic fracturing. SB 4 also requires the California Natural Resources Agency to conduct an independent scientific study of well stimulation technologies in California to assess current and potential future practices, including the likelihood that well stimulation technologies could enable extensive new petroleum production in the state, evaluate the impacts of well stimulation technologies and the gaps in data that preclude this understanding, identify risks associated with current practices, and identify alternative practices which might limit these risks.more » The study is issued in three volumes. This document, Volume I, provides the factual basis describing well stimulation technologies, how and where operators deploy these technologies for oil and gas production in California, and where they might enable production in the future. Volume II discusses how well stimulation affects water, the atmosphere, seismic activity, wildlife and vegetation, traffic, light and noise levels; it will also explore human health hazards, and identify data gaps and alternative practices. Volume III presents case studies to assess environmental issues and qualitative« less

Workplace, psychosocial factors, and depressive symptoms among working people with arthritis: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Gignac, Monique A M; Anis, Aslam H

2006-09-01

To examine the role of demographic, illness-related, workplace support, workplace activity limitations, arthritis-related work changes, and psychosocial factors in predicting subsequent depressive symptoms among employed people with arthritis. In a prospective study, 366 employed individuals with arthritis were recruited from Toronto, Canada. Respondents completed a structured questionnaire assessing demographic, disease-related factors, workplace support, and employment-related transitions, as well as psychosocial variables at 2 timepoints 18 months apart. Depression was assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Hierarchical multiple regression was used for analyses. Individuals with greater education reported significantly less depression. Lower workplace support and greater workplace activity limitations were significantly associated with future depressive symptoms. No relationship was found between work transitions and later depression, but more work changes were strongly associated with concurrent depressive symptoms. An association was also found between greater pain catastrophizing and future depressive symptoms. Our results highlight the need to assess the influence of work-related changes, workplace support, and psychosocial variables on depressive symptoms among people with arthritis. These findings suggest that workplace interventions should address not only ways to reduce workplace activity limitations, but also ways to better manage emotional distress related to working with arthritis.

Usage of Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (MMRTGs) for Future Potential Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Otting, Bill; Johnson, Steve; Woerner, Dave

2016-01-01

The goal of NASAs Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), evaluates the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This presentation focuses on the needs of the mission community and provides users a better understanding of how to integrate the MMRTG (Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator).

What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

2015-10-01

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-08-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Applications of neuroscience in criminal law: legal and methodological issues.

PubMed

Meixner, John B

2015-01-01

The use of neuroscience in criminal law applications is an increasingly discussed topic among legal and psychological scholars. Over the past 5 years, several prominent federal criminal cases have referenced neuroscience studies and made admissibility determinations regarding neuroscience evidence. Despite this growth, the field is exceptionally young, and no one knows for sure how significant of a contribution neuroscience will make to criminal law. This article focuses on three major subfields: (1) neuroscience-based credibility assessment, which seeks to detect lies or knowledge associated with a crime; (2) application of neuroscience to aid in assessments of brain capacity for culpability, especially among adolescents; and (3) neuroscience-based prediction of future recidivism. The article briefly reviews these fields as applied to criminal law and makes recommendations for future research, calling for the increased use of individual-level data and increased realism in laboratory studies.

Future Opportunities and Challenges with Using Demand Response as a Resource in Distribution System Operation and Planning Activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cappers, Peter; MacDonald, Jason; Page, Janie

2016-01-01

This scoping study focuses on identifying the ability for current and future demand response opportunities to contribute to distribution system management. To do so, this scoping study will identify the needs of a distribution system to operate efficiently, safely and reliably; summarize both benefits and challenges for the operation of the distribution system with high penetration levels of distributed energy resources; define a suite of services based on those changing operational needs that could be provided by resources; identify existing demand response opportunities sponsored by distribution utilities and/or aggregators of retail customers; assess the extent to which distribution system servicesmore » can be provided via DR opportunities both in their current form and with alterations to their design; and provide a qualitative assessment of coordination issues that bulk power and distribution system providers of DR opportunities will need to address.« less

Atmospheric Effects of Aviation: First Report of the Subsonic Assessment Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M. (Editor); Friedl, Randall R. (Editor); Wesoky, Howard L. (Editor)

1996-01-01

This document is the first report from the Office of Aeronautics Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) Program's Subsonic Assessment (SASS) Project. This effort, initiated in late 1993, has as its objective the assessment of the atmospheric effects of the current and predicted future aviation fleet. The two areas of impact are ozone (stratospheric and tropospheric) and radiative forcing. These are driven, respectively, by possible perturbations from aircraft emissions of NOX and soot and/or sulfur-containing particles. The report presents the major questions to which project assessments will be directed (Introduction) and the status of six programmatic elements: Emissions Scenarios, Exhaust Characterization, Near-Field Interactions, Kinetics and Laboratory Studies, Global Modeling, and Atmospheric Observations (field studies).

Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

PubMed

2011-12-01

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Elkhorn Slough: Detecting Eutrophication through Geospatial Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Childs, A.; Jurich, K.

2016-12-01

Elkhorn Slough in Monterey, California, has experienced substantial nutrient loading and eutrophication over the past 21 years as a result of fertilizer-rich runoff from nearby agricultural fields. This study seeks to identify and track spatial patterns of eutrophication hotspots and the correlation to land use changes, possible nutrient sources, and general climatic trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. Threats of rising sea level, subsiding marshes, and increased eutrophication hotspots demonstrate the necessity to analyze the effects of increasing nutrient loads, relative sea level changes, and sedimentation within Elkhorn Slough. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model integrates specified inputs to assess nutrient and sediment loading and their sources. TerrSet's Land Change Modeler forecasts the future potential of land change transitions for various land cover classes around the slough as a result of nutrient loading, eutrophication, and increased sedimentation. TerrSet's Earth Trends Modeler provides a comprehensive analysis of image time series to rapidly assess long term eutrophication trends and detect spatial patterns of known hotspots. Results from this study will inform future coastal management practices and provide greater spatial and temporal insight into Elkhorn Slough eutrophication dynamics.

Future Aeronautical Communication Infrastructure Technology Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilbert, Tricia; Jin, Jenny; Bergerm Jason; Henriksen, Steven

2008-01-01

This National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Contractor Report summarizes and documents the work performed to investigate technologies that could support long-term aeronautical mobile communications operating concepts for air traffic management (ATM) in the timeframe of 2020 and beyond, and includes the associated findings and recommendations made by ITT Corporation and NASA Glenn Research Center to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The work was completed as the final phase of a multiyear NASA contract in support of the Future Communication Study (FCS), a cooperative research and development program of the United States FAA, NASA, and EUROCONTROL. This final report focuses on an assessment of final five candidate technologies, and also provides an overview of the entire technology assessment process, including final recommendations.

Examining the Stationarity Assumption for Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections of Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wootten, A.; Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Mcpherson, R. A.

2017-12-01

Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) approaches attempt to refine global climate model (GCM) information via statistical relationships between observations and GCM simulations. The aim of such downscaling efforts is to create added-value climate projections by adding finer spatial detail and reducing biases. The results of statistical downscaling exercises are often used in impact assessments under the assumption that past performance provides an indicator of future results. Given prior research describing the danger of this assumption with regards to temperature, this study expands the perfect model experimental design from previous case studies to test the stationarity assumption with respect to precipitation. Assuming stationarity implies the performance of ESD methods are similar between the future projections and historical training. Case study results from four quantile-mapping based ESD methods demonstrate violations of the stationarity assumption for both central tendency and extremes of precipitation. These violations vary geographically and seasonally. For the four ESD methods tested the greatest challenges for downscaling of daily total precipitation projections occur in regions with limited precipitation and for extremes of precipitation along Southeast coastal regions. We conclude with a discussion of future expansion of the perfect model experimental design and the implications for improving ESD methods and providing guidance on the use of ESD techniques for impact assessments and decision-support.

[Risk assessment of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects in the use of food].

PubMed

Frolova, O A; Karpova, M V

2012-01-01

Application of methodology for assessing the risk of diseases associated with consumption of contaminated foods, is aimed at predicting possible changes in the future and helps to create a framework for the prevention of negative effects on public health. The purpose of the study is assessment of health risks formed under the influence of chemical contaminants that pollute the food. Exponential average daily dose of receipt of chemicals in the body, non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were calculated.

Technology assessment of portable energy RDT and P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanston, J. H., Jr.; Frisbie, W. P.; Poston, D. L.

1975-01-01

Results are presented of a workshop conducted to assess portable energy technology. The results were evaluated and areas for future research were considered. Several research categories were studied: increasing presently available fuel supplies, developing new fuel sources, utilization of new transportation fuels, improving conservation practices, and equitable distribution of fuel supplies. Several research projects were proposed, and work statements were constructed for those considered suitable.

Metabolic assessment of the action of targeted cancer therapeutics using magnetic resonance spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Beloueche-Babari, M; Chung, Y-L; Al-Saffar, N M S; Falck-Miniotis, M; Leach, M O

2009-01-01

Developing rational targeted cancer drugs requires the implementation of pharmacodynamic (PD), preferably non-invasive, biomarkers to aid response assessment and patient follow-up. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) allows the non-invasive study of tumour metabolism. We describe the MRS-detectable PD biomarkers resulting from the action of targeted therapeutics, and discuss their biological significance and future translation into clinical use. PMID:19935796

If You Want to Know, Consider Asking: How Likely Is It that Patients Will Hurt Themselves in the Future?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Jillian; Skeem, Jennifer; Manchak, Sarah

2011-01-01

Although self-harming behavior is a common and costly problem for psychiatric inpatients released from the hospital, standardized tools that assess patients' risk for self-harm are rarely used in clinical settings. In this study of dually diagnosed psychiatric inpatients (N = 147), we assessed the utility of patients' self-perceptions of risk in…

Electronic decision protocols for ART patient triaging to expand access to HIV treatment in South Africa: a cross sectional study for development and validation.

PubMed

Mitchell, Marc; Hedt, Bethany L; Eshun-Wilson, Ingrid; Fraser, Hamish; John, Melanie-Anne; Menezes, Colin; Grobusch, Martin P; Jackson, Jonathan; Taljaard, Jantjie; Lesh, Neal

2012-03-01

The shortage of doctors and nurses, along with future expansion into rural clinics, will require that the majority of clinic visits by HIV infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are managed by non-doctors. The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate a screening protocol to determine which patients needed a full clinical assessment and which patients were stable enough to receive their medications without a doctor's consultation. For this study, we developed an electronic, handheld tool to guide non-physician counselors through screening questions. Patients visiting two ART clinics in South Africa for routine follow-up visits between March 2007 and April 2008 were included in our study. Each patient was screened by non-physician counselors using the handheld device and then received a full clinical assessment. Clinicians' report on whether full clinical assessment had been necessary was used as the gold standard for determining "required referral". Observations were randomly divided into two datasets--989 for developing a referral protocol and 200 for validating protocol performance. A third of patients had at least one physical complaint, and 16% had five or more physical complaints. 38% of patients required referral for full clinical assessment. We identify a subset of questions which are 87% sensitive and 47% specific for recommended patient referral. The final screening protocol is highly sensitive and could reduce burden on ART clinicians by 30%. The uptake and acceptance of the handheld tool to support implementation of the protocol was high. Further examination of the data reveals several important questions to include in future referral algorithms to improve sensitivity and specificity. Based on these results, we identify a refined algorithm to explore in future evaluations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been widely used for assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively.

Qualitative analysis of student beliefs and attitudes after an objective structured clinical evaluation: implications for affective domain learning in undergraduate nursing education.

PubMed

Cazzell, Mary; Rodriguez, Amber

2011-12-01

This qualitative study explored the feelings, beliefs, and attitudes of senior-level undergraduate pediatric nursing students upon completion of a medication administration Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE). The affective domain is the most neglected domain in higher education, although it is deemed the "gateway to learning." Quantitative assessments of clinical skills performed during OSCEs usually address two of the three domains of learning: cognitive (knowledge) and psychomotor skills. Twenty students volunteered to participate in focus groups (10 per group) and were asked three questions relevant to their feelings, beliefs, and attitudes about their OSCE experiences. Students integrated the attitude of safety first into future practice but felt that anxiety, loss of control, reaction under pressure, and no feedback affected their ability to connect the OSCE performance with future clinical practice. The findings affect future affective domain considerations in the development, modification, and assessment of OSCEs across the undergraduate nursing curriculum.

Methodological quality in randomised controlled trials of transcutaneous electric nerve stimulation for pain: low fidelity may explain negative findings.

PubMed

Bennett, Michael I; Hughes, Nicola; Johnson, Mark I

2011-06-01

The benefits of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) for pain relief have not been reliably established, as most systematic reviews find poor methodological quality in many studies. The paradox within the evidence base for TENS is that despite identified sources of bias that may lead to an overestimation of treatment effects, no benefits for TENS can be clearly demonstrated. Conventional assessments of quality assume a single direction of bias, and little work has been undertaken examining other directions of bias. Our hypothesis was that low fidelity in studies (bias leading to an underestimation of treatment effects) may account for inconclusive findings. We included 38 studies from 3 recently published Cochrane systematic reviews that examined TENS for acute, chronic, and cancer pain. We extracted data relating to treatment allocation, application of TENS and to the assessment of outcomes. We quantified these data and judged this against standardised assessment criteria using a "traffic light" approach based on the number of studies reaching the standard. We identified significant sources of potential bias in both directions in relation to study design and implementation fidelity that have not been quantified previously. Suboptimal dosing of TENS and inappropriate outcome assessment were particularly prevalent weaknesses indicating low fidelity. We propose criteria for judging directions of bias in future studies of TENS that may be adapted to assess other trials in which implementation fidelity is important, such as other nonpharmacological interventions for pain. Poor implementation fidelity was identified as a significant source of bias in systematic reviews of TENS studies and might explain lack of consistent treatment effects of TENS in pain. Here, criteria for assessing methodology are proposed for use in designing future clinical trials of TENS. Copyright © 2010 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Review of pharmacological therapy for tinnitus.

PubMed

Patterson, Matthew B; Balough, Ben J

2006-01-01

This article provides a review of studies investigating the pharmacological treatment of tinnitus. Tinnitus continues to be a significant and costly health problem without a uniformly accepted treatment. A wide variety of studies exploring prescription, supplement, and vitamin therapies are assessed for efficacy of treatment and for establishing consistencies in symptom definition, assessment, and outcome measures. This review reveals no compelling evidence suggesting the efficacy of any pharmacological agent in the treatment of tinnitus. Analysis of prior investigations provides insight to appropriate methods for future work, which are outlined.

Structures performance, benefit, cost-study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woike, O. G.; Salemme, C.; Stearns, E.; Oritz, P.; Roberts, M. L.; Baughman, J. L.; Johnston, R. P.; Demel, H. F.; Stabrylla, R. G.; Coffinberry, G. A.

1981-01-01

New technology concepts and structural analysis development needs which could lead to improved life cycle cost for future high-bypass turbofans were studied. The NASA-GE energy efficient engine technology is used as a base to assess the concept benefits. Recommended programs are identified for attaining these generic structural and other beneficial technologies.

How Do Raters Judge Spoken Vocabulary?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Hui

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate how raters come to their decisions when judging spoken vocabulary. Segmental rating was introduced to quantify raters' decision-making process. It is hoped that this simulated study brings fresh insight to future methodological considerations with spoken data. Twenty trainee raters assessed five Chinese…

The Relationship of Future Agricultural Extension Educators' Cognitive Styles and Change Strategies for Adult Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strong, Robert; Irani, Tracy

2011-01-01

The study expands reported here Extension education's knowledge regarding characteristics of potential change agents. Graduate students learning to become agricultural Extension educators were studied to determine their definition of a change agent. Participants' cognitive styles were assessed using Kirton's Adaptation-Innovation Inventory to…

What Will Be Taught--The Next Decade.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krug, Mark M., Ed.

This book reviews the present high school curriculum and indicates the trends for the future. Seven professors were asked to assess the present situation and trends in their respective fields. The fields of study include English, visual education, science, foreign language, mathematics, social studies and teacher education. Major points in the…

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Functional assessment and performance evaluation for assistive robotic manipulators: Literature review

PubMed Central

Chung, Cheng-Shiu; Wang, Hongwu; Cooper, Rory A.

2013-01-01

Context The user interface development of assistive robotic manipulators can be traced back to the 1960s. Studies include kinematic designs, cost-efficiency, user experience involvements, and performance evaluation. This paper is to review studies conducted with clinical trials using activities of daily living (ADLs) tasks to evaluate performance categorized using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) frameworks, in order to give the scope of current research and provide suggestions for future studies. Methods We conducted a literature search of assistive robotic manipulators from 1970 to 2012 in PubMed, Google Scholar, and University of Pittsburgh Library System – PITTCat. Results Twenty relevant studies were identified. Conclusion Studies were separated into two broad categories: user task preferences and user-interface performance measurements of commercialized and developing assistive robotic manipulators. The outcome measures and ICF codes associated with the performance evaluations are reported. Suggestions for the future studies include (1) standardized ADL tasks for the quantitative and qualitative evaluation of task efficiency and performance to build comparable measures between research groups, (2) studies relevant to the tasks from user priority lists and ICF codes, and (3) appropriate clinical functional assessment tests with consideration of constraints in assistive robotic manipulator user interfaces. In addition, these outcome measures will help physicians and therapists build standardized tools while prescribing and assessing assistive robotic manipulators. PMID:23820143

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

Porcine models of digestive disease: the future of large animal translational research

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Liara M.; Moeser, Adam J.; Blikslager, Anthony T.

2015-01-01

There is increasing interest in non-rodent translational models for the study of human disease. The pig, in particular, serves as a useful animal model for the study of pathophysiological conditions relevant to the human intestine. This review assesses currently used porcine models of gastrointestinal physiology and disease and provides a rationale for the use of these models for future translational studies. The pig has proven its utility for the study of fundamental disease conditions such as ischemia/ reperfusion injury, stress-induced intestinal dysfunction, and short bowel syndrome. Pigs have also shown great promise for the study of intestinal barrier function, surgical tissue manipulation and intervention, as well as biomaterial implantation and tissue transplantation. Advantages of pig models highlighted by these studies include the physiological similarity to human intestine as well as to mechanisms of human disease. Emerging future directions for porcine models of human disease include the fields of transgenics and stem cell biology, with exciting implications for regenerative medicine. PMID:25655839

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.; Roelen, Alfred L. C.; den Hertog, Rudi

2016-01-01

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SELF-RATED EXPECTATIONS OF SUICIDAL BEHAVIOR PREDICT FUTURE SUICIDE ATTEMPTS AMONG ADOLESCENT AND YOUNG ADULT PSYCHIATRIC EMERGENCY PATIENTS.

PubMed

Czyz, Ewa K; Horwitz, Adam G; King, Cheryl A

2016-06-01

This study's purpose was to examine the predictive validity and clinical utility of a brief measure assessing youths' own expectations of their future risk of suicidal behavior, administered in a psychiatric emergency (PE) department; and determine if youths' ratings improve upon a clinician-administered assessment of suicidal ideation severity. The outcome was suicide attempts up to 18 months later. In this medical record review study, 340 consecutively presenting youths (ages 13-24) seeking PE services over a 7-month period were included. Subsequent PE visits and suicide attempts were retrospectively tracked for up to 18 months. The 3-item scale assessing patients' perception of their own suicidal behavior risk and the clinician-administered ideation severity scale were used routinely at the study site. Cox regression results showed that youths' expectations of suicidal behavior were independently associated with increased risk of suicide attempts, even after adjusting for key covariates. Results were not moderated by sex, suicide attempt history, or age. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicated that self-assessed expectations of risk improved the predictive accuracy of the clinician-administered suicidal ideation measure. Youths' ratings indicative of lower confidence in maintaining safety uniquely predicted follow-up attempts and provided incremental validity over and above the clinician-administered assessment and improved its accuracy, suggesting their potential for augmenting suicide risk formulation. Assessing youths' own perceptions of suicide risk appears to be clinically useful, feasible to implement in PE settings, and, if replicated, promising for improving identification of youth at risk for suicidal behavior. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Can We Predict Technical Aptitude?: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Louridas, Marisa; Szasz, Peter; de Montbrun, Sandra; Harris, Kenneth A; Grantcharov, Teodor P

2016-04-01

To identify background characteristics and cognitive tests that may predict surgical trainees' future technical performance, and therefore be used to supplement existing surgical residency selection criteria. Assessment of technical skills is not commonly incorporated as part of the selection process for surgical trainees in North America. Emerging evidence, however, suggests that not all trainees are capable of reaching technical competence. Therefore, incorporating technical aptitude into selection processes may prove useful. A systematic search was carried out of the MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Embase online databases to identify all studies that assessed associations between surrogate markers of innate technical abilities in surgical trainees, and whether these abilities correlate with technical performance. The quality of each study was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system. A total of 8035 records were identified. After screening by title, abstract, and full text, 52 studies were included. Very few surrogate markers were found to predict technical performance. Significant associations with technical performance were seen for 1 of 23 participant-reported surrogate markers, 2 of 25 visual spatial tests, and 2 of 19 dexterity tests. The assessment of trainee Basic Performance Resources predicted technical performance in 62% and 75% of participants. To date, no single test has been shown to reliably predict the technical performance of surgical trainees. Strategies that rely on assessing multiple innate abilities, their interaction, and their relationship with technical skill may ultimately be more likely to serve as reliable predictors of future surgical performance.

Silicon-sheet and thin-film cell and module technology potential: Issue study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimada, K.; Costogue, E. N.; Ferber, R. R.

1984-01-01

The development of high-efficiency low-cost crystalline silicon ribbon and thih-film solar cells for the energy national photovoltaics program was examined. The findings of an issue study conducted are presented. The collected data identified the status of the technology, future research needs, and problems experienced. The potentials of present research activities to meet the Federal/industry long-term technical goal of achieving 15 cents per kilowatt-hour levelized PV energy cost are assessed. Recommendations for future research needs related to crystalline silicon ribbon and thin-film technologies for flat-plate collectors are also included.

ISR effects for resonant Higgs production at future lepton colliders

DOE PAGES

Greco, Mario; Han, Tao; Liu, Zhen

2016-11-04

We study the effects of the initial state radiation on themore » $s$-channel Higgs boson resonant production at $$\\mu^+\\mu^-$$ and $e^+e^-$ colliders by convoluting with the beam energy spread profile of the collider and the Breit-Wigner resonance profile of the signal. We assess their impact on both the Higgs signal and SM backgrounds for the leading decay channels $$h\\rightarrow b\\bar b,\\ WW^*$$. In conclusion, our study improves the existing analyses of the proposed future resonant Higgs factories and provides further guidance for the accelerator designs with respect to the physical goals.« less

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P < .001), and non-HDL cholesterol (7.58 [4.43-12.95]; P < .001) were significantly associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However, BMI, waist circumference, and SAT were not associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Assessing the role of informal sector in WEEE management systems: A System Dynamics approach.

PubMed

Ardi, Romadhani; Leisten, Rainer

2016-11-01

Generally being ignored by academia and regulators, the informal sector plays important roles in Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) management systems, especially in developing countries. This study aims: (1) to capture and model the variety of informal operations in WEEE management systems, (2) to capture the dynamics existing within the informal sector, and (3) to assess the role of the informal sector as the key player in the WEEE management systems, influencing both its future operations and its counterpart, the formal sector. By using System Dynamics as the methodology and India as the reference system, this study is able to explain the reasons behind, on the one hand, the superiority of the informal sector in WEEE management systems and, on the other hand, the failure of the formal systems. Additionally, this study reveals the important role of the second-hand market as the determinant of the rise and fall of the informal sector in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rehabilitation Practitioners' Prioritized Care Processes in Hip Fracture Post-Acute Care

PubMed Central

Kim, Lauren H.; Leland, Natalie E.

2017-01-01

Aims Occupational and physical therapy in post-acute care (PAC) has reached the point where quality indicators for hip fracture are needed. This study characterizes the practitioners' prioritized hip fracture rehabilitation practices, which can guide future quality improvement initiatives. Methods Ninety-two practitioners participating in a parent mixed methods study were asked to rank a series of evidence-based best practices across five clinical domains (assessment, intervention, discharge planning, caregiver training and patient education). Results Prioritized practices reflected patient-practitioner collaboration, facilitating an effective discharge, and preventing adverse events. The highest endorsed care processes include: developing meaningful goals with patient input (84%) in assessment, using assistive devices in intervention (75%) and patient education (65%), engaging the patient and caregiver (50%) in discharge planning, and fall prevention (60%) in caregiver education. Conclusions Practitioners identified key care priorities. This study lays the foundation for future work evaluating the extent to which these practices are delivered in PAC. PMID:28989216

Comparison of risk assessment based on clinical judgement and Cariogram in addition to patient perceived treatment need.

PubMed

Hänsel Petersson, Gunnel; Åkerman, Sigvard; Isberg, Per-Erik; Ericson, Dan

2016-07-07

Predicting future risk for oral diseases, treatment need and prognosis are tasks performed daily in clinical practice. A large variety of methods have been reported, ranging from clinical judgement or "gut feeling" or even patient interviewing, to complex assessments of combinations of known risk factors. In clinical practice, there is an ongoing continuous search for less complicated and more valid tools for risk assessment. There is also a lack of knowledge how different common methods relates to one another. The aim of this study was to investigate if caries risk assessment (CRA) based on clinical judgement and the Cariogram model give similar results. In addition, to assess which factors from clinical status and history agree best with the CRA based on clinical judgement and how the patient's own perception of future oral treatment need correspond with the sum of examiners risk score. Clinical examinations were performed on randomly selected individuals 20-89 years old living in Skåne, Sweden. In total, 451 individuals were examined, 51 % women. The clinical examination included caries detection, saliva samples and radiographic examination together with history and a questionnaire. The examiners made a risk classification and the authors made a second risk calculation according to the Cariogram. For those assessed as low risk using the Cariogram 69 % also were assessed as low risk based on clinical judgement. For the other risk groups the agreement was lower. Clinical variables that significantly related to CRA based on clinical judgement were DS (decayed surfaces) and combining DS and incipient lesions, DMFT (decayed, missed, filled teeth), plaque amount, history and soft drink intake. Patients' perception of future oral treatment need correlated to some extent with the sum of examiners risk score. The main finding was that CRA based on clinical judgement and the Cariogram model gave similar results for the groups that were predicted at low level of future disease, but not so well for the other groups. CRA based on clinical judgement agreed best with the number of DS plus incipient lesions.

Baseline dental plaque activity, mutans streptococci culture, and future caries experience in children.

PubMed

Hallett, Kerrod B; O'Rourke, Peter K

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a chairside caries risk assessment protocol utilizing a caries prediction instrument, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) activity in dental plaque, mutans streptococci (MS) culture, and routine dental examination in five- to 10-year-old children at two regional Australian schools with high caries experience. Clinical indicators for future caries were assessed at baseline examination using a standardized prediction instrument. Plaque ATP activity was measured directly in relative light units (RLU) using a bioluminescence meter, and MS culture data were recorded. Each child's dentition was examined clinically and radiographically, and caries experience was recorded using enamel white spot lesions and decayed, missing, and filled surfaces for primary and permanent teeth indices. Univariate one-way analysis of variance between selected clinical indicators, ATP activity, MS count at baseline, and future new caries activity was performed, and a generalized linear model for prediction of new caries activity at 24 months was constructed. Future new caries activity was significantly associated with the presence of visible cavitations, reduced saliva flow, and orthodontic appliances at baseline (R(2)=0.2, P<.001). Baseline plaque adenosine triphosphate activity and mutans streptococci counts were not significantly associated with caries activity at 24 months.

Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

2014-05-01

Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide leaching to groundwater in a changing climate, and that these indirect effects outweigh the direct effects of changes in climate driving variables. Due to the large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments, drawing firm conclusions is not possible, but this type of analysis provides indications of likely future concerns and can be used as an early-warning tool to inform the general public, responsible public authorities and decision makers.

The importance of academic literacy for undergraduate nursing students and its relationship to future professional clinical practice: A systematic review.

PubMed

Jefferies, Diana; McNally, Stephen; Roberts, Katriona; Wallace, Anna; Stunden, Annette; D'Souza, Suzanne; Glew, Paul

2018-01-01

This systematic review was designed to assess the importance of academic literacy for undergraduate nursing students and its relationship to future professional clinical practice. It aimed to explore the link between academic literacy and writing in an undergraduate nursing degree and the development of critical thinking skills for their future professional clinical practice. A systematic review of qualitative studies and expert opinion publications. A systematic literature search was undertaken of the following databases: ERIC, PubMed, CINAHL, MEDLINE and Scopus. All papers reviewed were from 2000 to 2016 and were written in English. We identified 981 studies and expert opinion papers from the selected databases. After reviewing key words and abstracts for the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 48 papers were selected for review. These were read and reread, with 22 papers, including one thesis, selected for quality appraisal. One paper was discarded due to the exclusion criteria. Three major themes were evident from this study. First, students need assistance to develop tertiary level academic literacy skills when they commence their undergraduate nursing degree. Second, that teaching practices need to be consistent in both designing assessments and in giving feedback to students, in order to assist improvement of academic literacy skills. And finally, academic literacy can facilitate critical thinking when students are assessed using discipline specific genres that relate to their future professional nursing practice. This review highlights the importance of critical thinking in clinical nursing practice and its strong relationship with academic writing skills. It has shown critical thinking is discipline specific and nursing students need to be taught discipline specific literacy genres in undergraduate nursing degrees. Nursing has a diverse educational and cultural mix of students, and educators should not assume academic literacy skills upon commencement of an undergraduate nursing programme. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EXPOsOMICS: final policy workshop and stakeholder consultation.

PubMed

Turner, Michelle C; Vineis, Paolo; Seleiro, Eduardo; Dijmarescu, Michaela; Balshaw, David; Bertollini, Roberto; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Gant, Timothy; Gulliver, John; Jeong, Ayoung; Kyrtopoulos, Soterios; Martuzzi, Marco; Miller, Gary W; Nawrot, Timothy; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Phillips, David H; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Samet, Jonathan; Vermeulen, Roel; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Vrijheid, Martine; Wild, Christopher; Kogevinas, Manolis

2018-02-15

The final meeting of the EXPOsOMICS project "Final Policy Workshop and Stakeholder Consultation" took place 28-29 March 2017 to present the main results of the project and discuss their implications both for future research and for regulatory and policy activities. This paper summarizes presentations and discussions at the meeting related with the main results and advances in exposome research achieved through the EXPOsOMICS project; on other parallel research initiatives on the study of the exposome in Europe and in the United States and their complementarity to EXPOsOMICS; lessons learned from these early studies on the exposome and how they may shape the future of research on environmental exposure assessment; and finally the broader implications of exposome research for risk assessment and policy development on environmental exposures. The main results of EXPOsOMICS in relation to studies of the external exposome and internal exposome in relation to both air pollution and water contaminants were presented as well as new technologies for environmental health research (adductomics) and advances in statistical methods. Although exposome research strengthens the scientific basis for policy development, there is a need in terms of showing added value for public health to: improve communication of research results to non-scientific audiences; target research to the broader landscape of societal challenges; and draw applicable conclusions. Priorities for future work include the development and standardization of methodologies and technologies for assessing the external and internal exposome, improved data sharing and integration, and the demonstration of the added value of exposome science over conventional approaches in answering priority policy questions.

Prediagnostic serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers are correlated with future development of lung and esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Keeley, Brieze R; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Pak, Jamie S; Brennan, Paul; Khademi, Hooman; Genden, Eric M; Abnet, Christian C; Dawsey, Sanford M; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza; Sikora, Andrew G

2014-01-01

This study tests the hypothesis that prediagnostic serum levels of 20 cancer-associated inflammatory biomarkers correlate directly with future development of head and neck, esophageal, and lung cancers in a high-risk prospective cohort. This is a nested case–control pilot study of subjects enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study, an ongoing epidemiologic project assessing cancer trends in Golestan, Iran. We measured a panel of 20 21cytokines, chemokines, and inflammatory molecules using Luminex technology in serum samples collected 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis in 78 aerodigestive cancer cases and 81 controls. Data was analyzed using Wilcoxon rank sum test, odds ratios, receiver operating characteristic areas of discrimination, and multivariate analysis. Biomarkers were profoundly and globally elevated in future esophageal and lung cancer patients compared to controls. Odds ratios were significant for association between several biomarkers and future development of esophageal cancer, including interleukin-1Rα (IL-1Ra; 35.9), interferon α2 (IFN-a2; 34.0), fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2; 17.4), and granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF; 17.4). The same pattern was observed among future lung cancer cases for G-CSF (27.7), GM-CSF (13.3), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-a; 8.6). By contrast, the majority of biomarkers studied showed no significant correlation with future head and neck cancer development. This study provides the first direct evidence that multiple inflammatory biomarkers are coordinately elevated in future lung and esophageal cancer patients 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis. PMID:25040886

Teamwork and communication in the operating room: relationship to discrete outcomes and research challenges.

PubMed

Nurok, Michael; Sundt, Thoralf M; Frankel, Allan

2011-03-01

The literature defining and addressing teamwork and communication is abundant; however, few studies have analyzed the relationship between measures of teamwork and communication and quantifiable outcomes. The objectives of this review are: (1) to identify studies addressing teamwork and communication in the operating room in relation to discrete measures of outcome, (2) to create a classification of studies of the relationship between teamwork and communication and outcomes, (3) to assess the implications of these studies, (4) to explore the methodological challenges of teamwork and communication studies in the perioperative setting, and (5) to suggest future research directions.studies in the perioperative setting, and (5) to suggest future research directions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Current Status and Future Prospects for the Assessment of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G.; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

2013-01-01

Background Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. Methodology/Principal Findings We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. Conclusions/Significance This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies. PMID:23844080

Measurement properties of tools used to assess suicidality in autistic and general population adults: A systematic review.

PubMed

Cassidy, S A; Bradley, L; Bowen, E; Wigham, S; Rodgers, J

2018-05-05

Adults diagnosed with autism are at significantly increased risk of suicidal thoughts, suicidal behaviours and dying by suicide. However, it is unclear whether any validated tools are currently available to effectively assess suicidality in autistic adults in research and clinical practice. This is crucial for understanding and preventing premature death by suicide in this vulnerable group. This two stage systematic review therefore aimed to identify tools used to assess suicidality in autistic and general population adults, evaluate these tools for their appropriateness and measurement properties, and make recommendations for appropriate selection of suicidality assessment tools in research and clinical practice. Three databases were searched (PsycInfo, Medline and Web of Knowledge). Four frequently used suicidality assessment tools were identified, and subsequently rated for quality of the evidence in support of their measurement properties using the COSMIN checklist. Despite studies having explored suicidality in autistic adults, none had utilised a validated tool. Overall, there was lack of evidence in support of suicidality risk assessments successfully predicting future suicide attempts. We recommend adaptations to current suicidality assessment tools and priorities for future research, in order to better conceptualise suicidality and its measurement in autism. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Parental Involvement and Child and Adolescent Eating Disorders: Perspectives from Residents in Psychiatry, Pediatrics, and Family Medicine

PubMed Central

Marcon, Tamara Davidson; Girz, Laura; Stillar, Amanda; Tessier, Carole; Lafrance, Adele

2017-01-01

Objectives Best practice guidelines encourage the involvement of parents in the assessment and treatment of child/adolescent eating disorders (ED). This study investigated medical residents’ perspectives regarding parental involvement as well as their expectations for future practice in the assessment and treatment of ED. Method Five hundred and eighty-four medical residents from 17 Canadian residency programs specializing in family medicine, pediatrics, and psychiatry completed a web-based survey. Questions pertained to assessment and treatment practices for child/adolescent ED. Analyses included ANOVAs, paired t-tests, and, for residents who endorsed family involvement (N = 444), qualitative content analysis. Results Overall, residents reported that they “mostly” agreed with the involvement of family in the assessment and treatment of ED. Residents’ endorsement of family involvement in both domains increased according to the extent of ED training received. Four major themes emerged from the content analysis of family involvement and included recommendations in line with evidence-based models and unspecified, passive involvement in the assessment and recovery process. Conclusions Many residents endorse family involvement in both assessment and treatment; however, understanding of the nature of such involvement is often vague. Training in evidence-based protocols is necessary for residents planning to engage in multi-disciplinary assessment, referral, and/or treatment in their future practice. PMID:28747930

Transforming Medical Assessment: Integrating Uncertainty Into the Evaluation of Clinical Reasoning in Medical Education.

PubMed

Cooke, Suzette; Lemay, Jean-Francois

2017-06-01

In an age where practicing physicians have access to an overwhelming volume of clinical information and are faced with increasingly complex medical decisions, the ability to execute sound clinical reasoning is essential to optimal patient care. The authors propose two concepts that are philosophically paramount to the future assessment of clinical reasoning in medicine: assessment in the context of "uncertainty" (when, despite all of the information that is available, there is still significant doubt as to the best diagnosis, investigation, or treatment), and acknowledging that it is entirely possible (and reasonable) to have more than "one correct answer." The purpose of this article is to highlight key elements related to these two core concepts and discuss genuine barriers that currently exist on the pathway to creating such assessments. These include acknowledging situations of uncertainty, creating clear frameworks that define progressive levels of clinical reasoning skills, providing validity evidence to increase the defensibility of such assessments, considering the comparative feasibility with other forms of assessment, and developing strategies to evaluate the impact of these assessment methods on future learning and practice. The authors recommend that concerted efforts be directed toward these key areas to help advance the field of clinical reasoning assessment, improve the clinical care decisions made by current and future physicians, and have positive outcomes for patients. It is anticipated that these and subsequent efforts will aid in reaching the goal of making future assessment in medical education more representative of current-day clinical reasoning and decision making.

After the Gap Analysis: Education and Practice Changes to Prepare Nurses of the Future.

PubMed

Beauvais, Audrey Marie; Kazer, Meredith Wallace; Aronson, Barbara; Conlon, Suzanne E; Forte, Pamela; Fries, Kathleen S; Hahn, Judith M; Hullstrung, Russell; Levvis, Meg; McCauley, Paula; Morgan, Patricia Padula; Perfetto, Linda; Rebeschi, Lisa M; Solernou, Sheila B; Span, Patricia; Sundean, Lisa J

The purpose of the study was to describe the Connecticut Nursing Collaborative-Action Coalition's work in identifying and addressing gaps between nursing education and practice based on the Institute of Medicine's Future of Nursing report. Massachusetts Nurse of the Future (NOF) Competencies highlight the knowledge, skills, and attitudes/behaviors required for professional nurses. Integrating these concepts into the educational system will prepare the nursing workforce to respond to current/future health care needs and population health issues. Education and practice partners in four regions conducted a gap analysis of the education to practice transition for new graduate nurses using NOF as a framework for assessment. Gaps in competencies were similar across regions. However, each organization uniquely addressed curricular gaps to best prepare nurses of the future. Curriculum improvements will provide students the advantage of being prepared for the rapid changes happening in health care.

Large scale systems : a study of computer organizations for air traffic control applications.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-06-01

Based on current sizing estimates and tracking algorithms, some computer organizations applicable to future air traffic control computing systems are described and assessed. Hardware and software problem areas are defined and solutions are outlined.

ASSESSING MATERNAL AND FETAL EXPOSURE TO CHEMICALS

EPA Science Inventory

This data will fill key gaps in our understanding of exposure before birth and capacity to detoxify Bisphenol A (BPA) and could inform and strengthen future studies of the effects of BPA and other environmental chemicals on development.

Seismic retrofit benefit considering statewide transportation assessment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and demonstrate a methodology to prioritize bridges for : retrofit in the State of Oregon. Given the limited resources available, retrofitting all vulnerable bridges in the foreseeable : future would not be i...

Future management strategies for state maintained wetlands and stream mitigation sites.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

This study was to identify existing wetland/stream mitigation sites owned by the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) and assess performance of those sites including problems encountered and maintenance costs. Initial work determined that KYTC Dist...

Assessing corrosion of MSE wall reinforcement.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

The primary objective of this study was to extract reinforcement coupons from select MSE walls and document the extent of corrosion. In doing this, a baseline has been established against which coupons extracted in the future can be compared. A secon...

Deepwater Horizon NRDA Injury Assessment | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

Science.gov Websites

organisms. Oil can kill organisms or have effects on future generations. Potential long-term harmful effects systems. We conducted hundreds of scientific studies to determine whether there have been negative effects

Fracture mechanics /Dryden Lecture/. [aerospace structural design applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardrath, H. F.

1974-01-01

A historical outline of the engineering discipline of fracture mechanics is presented, and current analytical procedures are summarized. The current status of the discipline is assessed, and engineering applications are discussed, along with recommended directions for future study.

Technical assistance report : I-73 economic impact analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

This study assessed the probable economic impact of the future Interstate 73 along each of twelve alternative corridors that were proposed for the new highway. The contents of this report were originally distributed in four parts during February and ...

Integrating natural and social sciences to manage sustainably vectors of change in the marine environment: Dogger Bank transnational case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burdon, Daryl; Boyes, Suzanne J.; Elliott, Michael; Smyth, Katie; Atkins, Jonathan P.; Barnes, Richard A.; Wurzel, Rüdiger K.

2018-02-01

The management of marine resources is a complex process driven by the dynamics of the natural system and the influence of stakeholders including policy-makers. An integration of natural and social sciences research is required by policy-makers to better understand, and manage sustainably, natural changes and anthropogenic activities within particular marine systems. Given the uncertain development of activities in the marine environment, future scenarios assessments can be used to investigate whether marine policy measures are robust and sustainable. This paper develops an interdisciplinary framework, which incorporates future scenarios assessments, and identifies four main types of evaluation needed to integrate natural and social sciences research to support the integrated management of the marine environment: environmental policy and governance assessments; ecosystem services, indicators and valuation; modelling tools for management evaluations, and risk assessment and risk management. The importance of stakeholder engagement within each evaluation method is highlighted. The paper focuses on the transnational spatial marine management of the Dogger Bank, in the central North Sea, a site which is very important ecologically, economically and politically. Current management practices are reviewed, and research tools to support future management decisions are applied and discussed in relation to two main vectors of change affecting the Dogger Bank, namely commercial fisheries and offshore wind farm developments, and in relation to the need for nature conservation. The input of local knowledge through stakeholder engagement is highlighted as a necessary requirement to produce site-specific policy recommendations for the future management of the Dogger Bank. We present wider policy recommendations to integrate natural and social sciences in a global marine context.

Ultrasound-guided percutaneous irrigation in rotator cuff calcific tendinopathy: what is the evidence? A systematic review with proposals for future reporting.

PubMed

Lanza, Ezio; Banfi, Giuseppe; Serafini, Giovanni; Lacelli, Francesca; Orlandi, Davide; Bandirali, Michele; Sardanelli, Francesco; Sconfienza, Luca Maria

2015-07-01

We performed a systematic review of current evidence regarding ultrasound-guided percutaneous irrigation of calcific tendinopathy (US-PICT) in the shoulder aimed to: assess different published techniques; evaluate clinical outcome in a large combined cohort; and propose suggestions for homogeneous future reporting. Cochrane Collaboration for Systematic Reviews of Interventions Guidelines were followed. We searched MEDLINE/MEDLINE In-Process/EMBASE/Cochrane databases from 1992-2013 using the keywords 'ultrasound, shoulder, needling, calcification, lavage, rotator cuff' combined in appropriate algorithms. References of resulting papers were also screened. Risk of bias was assessed with a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Of 284 papers found, 15 were included, treating 1,450 shoulders in 1,403 patients (females, n = 838; mean age interval 40-63 years). There was no exclusion due to risk of bias. US-PICT of rotator cuff is a safe and effective procedure, with an estimated average 55% pain improvement at an average of 11 months, with a 10% minor complication rate. No evidence exists in favour of using a specific size/number of needles. Imaging follow-up should not be used routinely. Future studies should aim at structural uniformity, including the use of the Constant Score to assess outcomes and 1-year minimum follow-up. Alternatives to steroid injections should also be explored. • US-PICT of rotator cuff is a safe and effective procedure. • On average 55% pain improvement with 10% minor complication rate. • No evidence exists in favour of using a specific size/number of needles. • Future need to assess outcome using Constant Score with 1-year minimum follow-up.

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Are Baby Boomers Who Care for their Older Parents Planning for their Own Future Long-Term Care Needs?

PubMed Central

FINKELSTEIN, EMILY S.; REID, M. CARRINGTON; KLEPPINGER, ALISON; PILLEMER, KARL; ROBISON, JULIE

2013-01-01

A rapidly expanding number of baby boomers provide care to aging parents. This study examines associations between caregiver status and outcomes related to awareness and anticipation of future long-term care (LTC) needs using 2007 Connecticut Long-Term Care Needs Assessment survey data. Baby boomers who were adult child caregivers (n = 353) vs. baby boomers who were not (n = 1242) were more likely to anticipate some future LTC needs and to have considered certain financing strategies. Although baby boomer adult child caregivers more readily anticipate some future LTC needs, they are not taking specific actions. It is important to address the need for public education directed towards those who are currently (or have recently completed) caring for aging parents. PMID:22239280