Web-Based and Mobile Delivery of an Episodic Future Thinking Intervention for Overweight and Obese Families: A Feasibility Study

PubMed Central

Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Kilanowski, Colleen K; Collins, R Lorraine

2015-01-01

Background The bias toward immediate gratification is associated with maladaptive eating behaviors and has been cross-sectionally and prospectively related to obesity. Engaging in episodic future thinking, which involves mental self-projection to pre-experience future events, reduces this bias and energy intake in overweight/obese adults and children. To examine how episodic future thinking can be incorporated into clinical interventions, a Web-based system was created to provide training for adults and children in their everyday lives. Objective Our study examined the technical feasibility, usability, and acceptability of a Web-based system that is accessible by mobile devices and adapts episodic future thinking for delivery in family-based obesity interventions. Methods We recruited 20 parent-child dyads (N=40) from the surrounding community and randomized to episodic future thinking versus a nutritional information thinking control to test the feasibility of a 4-week Web-based intervention. Parents were 44.1 (SD 7.8) years of age with BMI of 34.2 (SD 6.8) kg/m2. Children were 11.0 (SD 1.3) years of age with BMI percentile of 96.0 (SD 1.8). Families met weekly with a case manager for 4 weeks and used the system daily. Adherence was collected through the Web-based system, and perceived acceptance of the Web-based system was assessed postintervention. Measurements of body composition and dietary intake were collected at baseline and after the 4 weeks of intervention. Results All 20 families completed the intervention and attended all sessions. Results showed parents and children had high adherence to the Web-based system and perceived it to be easy to use, useful, and helpful. No differences between conditions were found in adherence for parents (P=.65) or children (P=.27). In addition, results suggest that basic nutrition information along with episodic future thinking delivered through our Web-based system may reduce energy intake and weight. Conclusions We showed that our Web-based system is an accepted technology and a feasible utility. Furthermore, results provide initial evidence that our system can be incorporated into family-based treatments targeting behaviors related to weight control. These results show promising utility in using our Web-based system in interventions. PMID:26678959

Developmental Programming: State-of-the-Science and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Sutton, Elizabeth F.; Gilmore, L. Anne; Dunger, David B.; Heijmans, Bas T.; Hivert, Marie-France; Ling, Charlotte; Martinez, J. Alfredo; Ozanne, Susan E.; Simmons, Rebecca A.; Szyf, Moshe; Waterland, Robert A.; Redman, Leanne M.; Ravussin, Eric

2016-01-01

Objective On December 8–9, 2014, the Pennington Biomedical Research Center convened a scientific symposium to review the state-of-the-science and future directions for the study of developmental programming of obesity and chronic disease. The objectives of the symposium were to discuss: (i) past and current scientific advances in animal models, population-based cohort studies and human clinical trials, (ii) the state-of-the-science of epigenetic-based research, and (iii) considerations for future studies. Results The overarching goal was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of the scientific field, to identify research gaps and opportunities for future research in order to identify and understand the mechanisms contributing to the developmental programming of health and disease. Conclusions Identifying the mechanisms which cause or contribute to developmental programming of future generations will be invaluable to the scientific and medical community. The ability to intervene during critical periods of prenatal and early postnatal life to promote lifelong health is the ultimate goal. Considerations for future research including the use of animal models, the study design in human cohorts with considerations about the timing of the intrauterine exposure and the resulting tissue specific epigenetic signature were extensively discussed and are presented in this meeting summary. PMID:27037645

[Theoretical and methodological bases for formation of future drivers 'readiness to application of physical-rehabilitation technologies].

PubMed

Yemets, Anatoliy V; Donchenko, Viktoriya I; Scrinick, Eugenia O

2018-01-01

Introduction: Experimental work is aimed at introducing theoretical and methodological foundations for the professional training of the future doctor. The aim: Identify the dynamics of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the readiness of a specialist in medicine. Materials and methods: The article presents the course and results of the experimental work of the conditions of forming the readiness of future specialists in medicine. Results: Our methodical bases for studying the disciplines of the general practice and specialized professional stage of experimental training of future physicians have been worked out. Conclusions: It is developed taking into account the peculiarities of future physician training of materials for various stages of experimental implementation in the educational process of higher medical educational institutions.

The Future of Home Health Care: A Strategic Framework for Optimizing Value.

PubMed

Landers, Steven; Madigan, Elizabeth; Leff, Bruce; Rosati, Robert J; McCann, Barbara A; Hornbake, Rodney; MacMillan, Richard; Jones, Kate; Bowles, Kathryn; Dowding, Dawn; Lee, Teresa; Moorhead, Tracey; Rodriguez, Sally; Breese, Erica

2016-11-01

The Future of Home Health project sought to support transformation of home health and home-based care to meet the needs of patients in the evolving U.S. health care system. Interviews with key thought leaders and stakeholders resulted in key themes about the future of home health care. By synthesizing this qualitative research, a literature review, case studies, and the themes from a 2014 Institute of Medicine and National Research Council workshop on "The Future of Home Health Care," the authors articulate a vision for home-based care and recommend a bold framework for the Medicare-certified home health agency of the future. The authors also identify challenges and recommendations for achievement of this framework.

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

The Journey of a Science Teacher: Preparing Female Students in the Training Future Scientists after School Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson-Hill, Rona M.

2013-01-01

What affect does female participation in the Training Future Scientist (TFS) program based on Vygotsky's sociocultural theory and Maslow's Hierarchies of Needs have on female adolescents' achievement levels in science and their attitude toward science and interest in science-based careers? The theoretical framework for this study was developed…

Enhancing Student Motivation: A Longitudinal Intervention Study Based on Future Time Perspective Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuitema, Jaap; Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

2014-01-01

The authors investigated the effects of an intervention developed to enhance student motivation in the first years of secondary education. The intervention, based on future time perspective (FTP) theory, has been found to be effective in prevocational secondary education (T. T. D. Peetsma & I. Van der Veen, 2008, 2009). The authors extend the…

The Importance of Future Kindergarten Teachers' Beliefs about the Usefulness of Games Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manessis, Dionysios

2014-01-01

This paper examines the importance of future kindergarten teachers' beliefs about the usefulness of Games Based Learning in Early Childhood Education. Data were collected by using questionnaires which were given to the participants at the end of an introductory level, Information and Communication Technologies course. The sample of this study was…

Flexible Pedagogies: Employer Engagement and Work-Based Learning. Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kettle, Jane

2013-01-01

This publication focuses on national and international policy initiatives to develop a better understanding of work-based learners and the types of flexibility that may well enhance their study especially pedagogically. As part of our five-strand research project "Flexible Pedagogies: preparing for the future" it: (1) highlights the…

The Case of Web-Based Course on Taxation: Current Status, Problems and Future Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zhigang

This paper mainly introduces the case of the web-based course on taxation developed by Xiamen University. We analyze the current status, problems and future improvement of the web-based course. The web-based course has the basic contents and modules, but it has several problems including unclear object, lacking interaction, lacking examination module, lacking study management module, and the learning materials and the navigation are too simple. According to its problems, we put forward the measures to improve it.

Future Time Perspective in Sociocultural Contexts: A Discussion Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy P.

2009-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) serves as a strong motivational force for individuals to engage in activities that may be instrumental in future outcomes. There has been a voluminous body of research studies, to date, that explored the importance of FTP. This article discusses FTP from sociocultural perspectives. Based on previous empirical…

An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

2008-02-01

This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Critical Issues and Problems Facing Technology and Engineering Education in the Commonwealth of Virginia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsioloudis, Petros; Moye, Johnny J.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research was to determine the future critical issues and problems facing the K-12 technology and engineering education profession in the Commonwealth of Virginia. This study was based on the Wicklein nationwide studies (1993a, 2005). Even though this study did not exactly replicate the Wicklein studies--since it was limited to…

Measuring emotion socialization in schools.

PubMed

Horner, Christy G; Wallace, Tanner L

2013-10-01

Understanding how school personnel can best support students' development of communication skills around feelings is critical to long-term health outcomes. The measurement of emotion socialization in schools facilitates future research in this area; we review existing measures of emotion socialization to assess their applicability to school-based health studies. A content analysis of four emotion socialization measures was conducted. Inclusion criteria included: high frequency of use in prior research, established documentation of validity and reliability, and sufficient description of measurement procedures. Four dimensions emerged as particularly salient to a measure's future relevance and applicability to school-based health studies: (1) methods of measurement; (2) mode and agent of socialization; (3) type of emotion; and (4) structure versus function of socializing behavior. Future measurement strategies should address (1) the structures of emotion socializing processes; (2) diverse socializing agents such as teachers, peers, and administrators; (3) the intended functions of such processes; (4) student perceptions of and responses to such processes; and (5) the complex interactions of these factors across contexts. Strategies attending to these components will permit future studies of school-based emotion socializing processes to determine how they enhance health and reduce health risks. © 2013, American School Health Association.

Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

2016-12-01

The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

Concise Review: Apoptotic Cell-Based Therapies-Rationale, Preclinical Results and Future Clinical Developments.

PubMed

Saas, Philippe; Daguindau, Etienne; Perruche, Sylvain

2016-06-01

The objectives of this review are to summarize the experimental data obtained using apoptotic cell-based therapies, and then to discuss future clinical developments. Indeed, apoptotic cells exhibit immunomodulatory properties that are reviewed here by focusing on more recent mechanisms. These immunomodulatory mechanisms are in particular linked to the clearance of apoptotic cells (called also efferocytosis) by phagocytes, such as macrophages, and the induction of regulatory T cells. Thus, apoptotic cell-based therapies have been used to prevent or treat experimental inflammatory diseases. Based on these studies, we have identified critical steps to design future clinical trials. This includes: the administration route, the number and schedule of administration, the appropriate apoptotic cell type to be used, as well as the apoptotic signal. We also have analyzed the clinical relevancy of apoptotic-cell-based therapies in experimental models. Additional experimental data are required concerning the treatment of inflammatory diseases (excepted for sepsis) before considering future clinical trials. In contrast, apoptotic cells have been shown to favor engraftment and to reduce acute graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) in different relevant models of transplantation. This has led to the conduct of a phase 1/2a clinical trial to alleviate GvHD. The absence of toxic effects obtained in this trial may support the development of other clinical studies based on this new cell therapy. Stem Cells 2016;34:1464-1473. © 2016 AlphaMed Press.

Mindfulness-Based Interventions for Older Adults: A Review of the Effects on Physical and Emotional Well-being

PubMed Central

Geiger, Paul J.; Boggero, Ian A.; Brake, C. Alex; Caldera, Carolina A.; Combs, Hannah L.; Peters, Jessica R.; Baer, Ruth A.

2015-01-01

This comprehensive review examined the effects of mindfulness-based interventions on the physical and emotional wellbeing of older adults, a rapidly growing segment of the general population. Search procedures yielded 15 treatment outcome studies meeting inclusion criteria. Support was found for the feasibility and acceptability of mindfulness-based interventions with older adults. Physical and emotional wellbeing outcome variables offered mixed support for the use of mindfulness-based interventions with older adults. Potential explanations of mixed findings may include methodological flaws, study limitations, and inconsistent modifications of protocols. These are discussed in detail and future avenues of research are discussed, emphasizing the need to incorporate geriatric populations into future mindfulness-based empirical research. PMID:27200109

A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

Future orientation: a construct with implications for adolescent health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Johnson, Sarah R Lindstrom; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L

2014-01-01

Multidisciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies - for example, contracepting, exercising - are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits.

Future Orientation: A Construct with Implications for Adolescent Health and Wellbeing

PubMed Central

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L.

2016-01-01

Multi-disciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies—for example contracepting, exercising—are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits. PMID:24523304

FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

Study of Air Pollution from Space Using TOMS: Challenges and Promises for Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhartia, Pawan K.

2002-01-01

A series of TOMS instruments built by NASA has flown on US, Russian, and Japanese satellites in the last 24 years. These instruments are well known for producing spectacular maps of the ozone hole that forms over Antarctica each spring. However, it is less well known that these instruments also provided first evidence that space-based measurements in UV of sufficiently high precision and accuracy can provide valuable information to study global air quality. We will use the TOMS experience to highlight the promises and challenges of future space-based missions designed specifically for air quality studies.

Parenting Needs of Urban, African American Fathers.

PubMed

Smith, Tyler K; Tandon, S Darius; Bair-Merritt, Megan H; Hanson, Janice L

2015-07-01

Fathers play a critical role in children's development; similarly, fatherhood positively affects men's health. Among the larger population of fathers relatively little is known about the parenting knowledge of urban, African American fathers. Focusing on urban, African American fathers, the objectives of this study were to (1) understand the primary sources from which fathers learn about parenting, (2) determine where and how fathers prefer to receive future parenting education, and (3) explore the information perceived as most valuable to fathers and how this compares with the recommended anticipatory guidance (Bright Futures-based) delivered during well visits. Five focus groups, with a total of 21 participants, were conducted with urban fathers at a community-based organization. Study eligibility included being more than 18 years old, English speaking, and having at least one child 0 to 5 years old. During the focus groups, fathers were asked where they received parenting information, how and where they preferred to receive parenting information, and what they thought about Bright Futures parenting guidelines. Fathers most commonly described receiving parenting information from their own relatives rather than from their child's health care provider. Most fathers preferred to learn parenting from a person rather than a technology-based source and expressed interest in learning more about parenting at community-based locations. Although fathers viewed health care providers' role as primarily teaching about physical health, they valued Bright Futures anticipatory guidance about parenting. Fathers valued learning about child rearing, health, and development. Augmenting physician counseling about Bright Futures with community-based parenting education may be beneficial for fathers. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Medial Temporal Lobes are Critical for Reward-Based Decision Making under Conditions that Promote Episodic Future Thinking

PubMed Central

Palombo, Daniela J.; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2014-01-01

In the present study, we investigated the effect of medial temporal lobe (MTL) damage on human decision making in the context of reward-based intertemporal choice. During intertemporal choice, humans typically devalue (or discount) a future reward to account for its delayed arrival (e.g., preferring $30 now over $42 in 2 months), but this effect is attenuated when participants engage in episodic future thinking, i.e., project themselves into the future to imagine a specific event. We hypothesized that this attenuation would be selectively impaired in amnesic patients, who have deficits in episodic future thinking. Replicating previous work, in a standard intertemporal choice task, amnesic patients showed temporal discounting indices similar to healthy controls. Consistent with our hypothesis, while healthy controls demonstrated attenuated temporal discounting in a condition that required participants first to engage in episodic future thinking (e.g., to imagine spending $42 at a theatre in 2 months), amnesic patients failed to demonstrate this effect. Moreover, as expected, amnesic patients’ narratives were less episodically rich than those of controls. These findings extend the range of tasks that are shown to be MTL dependent to include not only memory-based decision-making tasks but also future-oriented ones. PMID:25284804

Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide useful information to land managers to make land use decisions regarding switchgrass development.

Developing a Consensus-Driven, Core Competency Model to Shape Future Audio Engineering Technology Curriculum: A Web-Based Modified Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tough, David T.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this online study was to create a ranking of essential core competencies and technologies required by AET (audio engineering technology) programs 10 years in the future. The study was designed to facilitate curriculum development and improvement in the rapidly expanding number of small to medium sized audio engineering technology…

Quantitative comparison of cognitive behavioral therapy and music therapy research: a methodological best-practices analysis to guide future investigation for adult psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Silverman, Michael J

2008-01-01

While the music therapy profession is relatively young and small in size, it can treat a variety of clinical populations and has established a diverse research base. However, although the profession originated working with persons diagnosed with mental illnesses, there is a considerable lack of quantitative research concerning the effects of music therapy with this population. Music therapy clinicians and researchers have reported on this lack of evidence and the difficulty in conducting psychosocial research on their interventions (Choi, 1997; Silverman, 2003a). While published studies have provided suggestions for future research, no studies have provided detailed propositions for the methodology and design of meticulous high quality randomized controlled psychiatric music therapy research. How do other psychotherapies accomplish their databases and could the music therapy field borrow from their rigorous "methodological best practices" to strengthen its own literature base? Therefore, as the National Institutes of Mental Health state the treatment of choice for evidence-based psychotherapy is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), aspects of this psychotherapy's literature base were analyzed. The purpose of this literature analysis was to (a) analyze and identify components of high-quality quantitative CBT research for adult psychiatric consumers, (b) analyze and identify the variables and other elements of existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research for adult consumers, and (c) compare the two data sets to identify the best methodological designs and variables for future quantitative music therapy research with the mental health population. A table analyzing randomized and thoroughly controlled studies involving the use of CBT for persons with severe mental illnesses is included to determine chief components of high-quality experimental research designs and implementation of quantitative clinical research. The table also shows the same analyzed components for existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research with adult consumers, thus highlighting potential areas and elements for future investigations. A second table depicts a number of potential dependent measures and their sources to be evaluated in future music therapy studies. A third table providing suggestions for future research is derived from a synthesis of the tables and is included to guide researchers and encourage the advancement and expansion of the current literature base. The body of the paper is a discussion of the results of the literature analysis derived from the tables, meta-analyses, and reviews of literature. It is hoped that this report will lead to the addition of future high-quality quantitative research to the psychiatric music therapy literature base and thus provide evidence-based services to as many persons with mental illnesses as possible.

Expectations for Future Relationship Satisfaction: Unique Sources and Critical Implications for Commitment

PubMed Central

Baker, Levi R.; McNulty, James K.; VanderDrift, Laura E.

2017-01-01

Contemporary perspectives on relationship commitment posit that intimates decide whether or not to maintain a relationship based on their commitment to that relationship, and that they base such commitment partially on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Nevertheless, given that ending a relationship requires knowing about both the current state of the relationship and the likely future state of the relationship, we propose that people base their commitment to a relationship more on their expected future satisfaction with the relationship than on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Six studies provided evidence for these ideas. Study 1 demonstrated that expected satisfaction is shaped by not only current satisfaction but also several unique indicators of the likelihood of future satisfaction, including anticipated life events, plans to improve the relationship, and individual differences. Then, using a combination of cross-sectional, experimental, and longitudinal methods, Studies 2–6 demonstrated that (a) expected satisfaction was a stronger predictor of relationship commitment, maintenance behaviors, and/or divorce than was current satisfaction and (b) expected satisfaction mediated the association between current satisfaction and these outcomes. These findings highlight not only the need to incorporate expected satisfaction into extent perspectives on commitment, but also the importance of expectations for decision-making processes more broadly. PMID:28368196

Motivational Antecedents of Preventive Proactivity in Late Life: Linking Future Orientation and Exercise1

PubMed Central

Kahana, Eva; Kahana, Boaz; Zhang, Jianping

2007-01-01

Future orientation is considered as a motivational antecedent of late-life proactivity. In a panel study of 453 old-old adults, we linked future orientation to exercise, a key component of late-life proactivity. Findings based on hierarchical linear modeling reveal that future orientation at baseline predicts changes in exercise during the subsequent four years. Whereas exercise behavior generally declined over time, future orientation and female gender were associated with smaller decline. These results suggest that future-oriented thinking has a lasting impact on health promotion behavior. Future orientation thus represents a dispositional antecedent of preventive proactivity as proposed in our successful aging model. PMID:18080009

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Forecasting the Future Food Service World of Work. Final Report. Volume II. Centralized Food Service Systems. Service Management Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Thomas F., Ed.; Swinton, John R., Ed.

Volume II of a three-volume study on the future of the food service industry considers the effects that centralized food production will have on the future of food production systems. Based on information from the Fair Acres Project and the Michigan State University Vegetable Processing Center, the authors describe the operations of a centralized…

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John; Beville, Shelly; Britsch, Del; Hartley, Stephen; Hawes, Suzanne; Johnston, James; Kemp, Paul; Kinler, Quin; Martucci, Antonio; Porthouse, Jon; Reed, Denise; Roy, Kevin; Sapkota, Sijan; Suhayda, Joseph

2003-01-01

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Zymomonas mobilis: a novel platform for future biorefineries.

PubMed

He, Ming Xiong; Wu, Bo; Qin, Han; Ruan, Zhi Yong; Tan, Fu Rong; Wang, Jing Li; Shui, Zong Xia; Dai, Li Chun; Zhu, Qi Li; Pan, Ke; Tang, Xiao Yu; Wang, Wen Guo; Hu, Qi Chun

2014-01-01

Biosynthesis of liquid fuels and biomass-based building block chemicals from microorganisms have been regarded as a competitive alternative route to traditional. Zymomonas mobilis possesses a number of desirable characteristics for its special Entner-Doudoroff pathway, which makes it an ideal platform for both metabolic engineering and commercial-scale production of desirable bio-products as the same as Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae based on consideration of future biomass biorefinery. Z. mobilis has been studied extensively on both fundamental and applied level, which will provide a basis for industrial biotechnology in the future. Furthermore, metabolic engineering of Z. mobilis for enhancing bio-ethanol production from biomass resources has been significantly promoted by different methods (i.e. mutagenesis, adaptive laboratory evolution, specific gene knock-out, and metabolic engineering). In addition, the feasibility of representative metabolites, i.e. sorbitol, bionic acid, levan, succinic acid, isobutanol, and isobutanol produced by Z. mobilis and the strategies for strain improvements are also discussed or highlighted in this paper. Moreover, this review will present some guidelines for future developments in the bio-based chemical production using Z. mobilis as a novel industrial platform for future biofineries.

The Potential of Technology-Based Psychological Interventions for Anorexia and Bulimia Nervosa: A Systematic Review and Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

Bürger, Carolina; Schmidt, Luise; Herbst, Nirmal; Voderholzer, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Background Previous studies have shown an unmet need in the treatment of eating disorders. In the last decade, interest in technology-based interventions (TBIs) (including computer- and Internet-based interventions [CBIs] or mobile interventions) for providing evidence-based therapies to individuals with different mental disorders has increased. Objective The aim of this review was to systematically evaluate the potential of TBIs in the field of eating disorders, namely for anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN), for both prevention and treatment, and also for carers of eating disorder patients. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted using Medline and PsycINFO. Bibliographies of retrieved articles were also reviewed without date or study type restrictions. Results Forty studies resulting in 45 publications reporting outcomes fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 22 randomized controlled trials, 2 controlled studies, and 16 uncontrolled studies. In total, 3646 patients were included. Overall, the studies provided evidence for the efficacy of guided CBIs, especially for BN patients and for compliant patients. Furthermore, videoconferencing also appeared to be a promising approach. Evaluation results of Internet-based prevention of eating disorders and Internet-based programs for carers of eating disorder patients were also encouraging. Finally, there was preliminary evidence for the efficacy of mobile interventions. Conclusions TBIs may be an additional way of delivering evidence-based treatments to eating disorder patients and their use is likely to increase in the near future. TBIs may also be considered for the prevention of eating disorders and to support carers of eating disorder patients. Areas of future research and important issues such as guidance, therapeutic alliance, and dissemination are discussed. PMID:25840591

The potential of technology-based psychological interventions for anorexia and bulimia nervosa: a systematic review and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Schlegl, Sandra; Bürger, Carolina; Schmidt, Luise; Herbst, Nirmal; Voderholzer, Ulrich

2015-03-31

Previous studies have shown an unmet need in the treatment of eating disorders. In the last decade, interest in technology-based interventions (TBIs) (including computer- and Internet-based interventions [CBIs] or mobile interventions) for providing evidence-based therapies to individuals with different mental disorders has increased. The aim of this review was to systematically evaluate the potential of TBIs in the field of eating disorders, namely for anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN), for both prevention and treatment, and also for carers of eating disorder patients. A systematic literature search was conducted using Medline and PsycINFO. Bibliographies of retrieved articles were also reviewed without date or study type restrictions. Forty studies resulting in 45 publications reporting outcomes fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 22 randomized controlled trials, 2 controlled studies, and 16 uncontrolled studies. In total, 3646 patients were included. Overall, the studies provided evidence for the efficacy of guided CBIs, especially for BN patients and for compliant patients. Furthermore, videoconferencing also appeared to be a promising approach. Evaluation results of Internet-based prevention of eating disorders and Internet-based programs for carers of eating disorder patients were also encouraging. Finally, there was preliminary evidence for the efficacy of mobile interventions. TBIs may be an additional way of delivering evidence-based treatments to eating disorder patients and their use is likely to increase in the near future. TBIs may also be considered for the prevention of eating disorders and to support carers of eating disorder patients. Areas of future research and important issues such as guidance, therapeutic alliance, and dissemination are discussed.

Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberling, George G.

This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

Virtual reality-based simulators for spine surgery: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pfandler, Michael; Lazarovici, Marc; Stefan, Philipp; Wucherer, Patrick; Weigl, Matthias

2017-09-01

Virtual reality (VR)-based simulators offer numerous benefits and are very useful in assessing and training surgical skills. Virtual reality-based simulators are standard in some surgical subspecialties, but their actual use in spinal surgery remains unclear. Currently, only technical reviews of VR-based simulators are available for spinal surgery. Thus, we performed a systematic review that examined the existing research on VR-based simulators in spinal procedures. We also assessed the quality of current studies evaluating VR-based training in spinal surgery. Moreover, we wanted to provide a guide for future studies evaluating VR-based simulators in this field. This is a systematic review of the current scientific literature regarding VR-based simulation in spinal surgery. Five data sources were systematically searched to identify relevant peer-reviewed articles regarding virtual, mixed, or augmented reality-based simulators in spinal surgery. A qualitative data synthesis was performed with particular attention to evaluation approaches and outcomes. Additionally, all included studies were appraised for their quality using the Medical Education Research Study Quality Instrument (MERSQI) tool. The initial review identified 476 abstracts and 63 full texts were then assessed by two reviewers. Finally, 19 studies that examined simulators for the following procedures were selected: pedicle screw placement, vertebroplasty, posterior cervical laminectomy and foraminotomy, lumbar puncture, facet joint injection, and spinal needle insertion and placement. These studies had a low-to-medium methodological quality with a MERSQI mean score of 11.47 out of 18 (standard deviation=1.81). This review described the current state and applications of VR-based simulator training and assessment approaches in spinal procedures. Limitations, strengths, and future advancements of VR-based simulators for training and assessment in spinal surgery were explored. Higher-quality studies with patient-related outcome measures are needed. To establish further adaptation of VR-based simulators in spinal surgery, future evaluations need to improve the study quality, apply long-term study designs, and examine non-technical skills, as well as multidisciplinary team training. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.; Hooey, Becky L.; Bakowski, Deborah L.

2017-01-01

Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO) is a future concept for surface operations where time requirements are incorporated into taxi operations to support surface planning and coordination. Pilot-in-the-loop flight deck simulations have been conducted to study flight deck displays algorithms to aid pilots in complying with the time requirements of time-based taxi operations (i.e., at discrete locations in 3 12 D operations or at all points along the route in 4DT operations). The results of these studies (conformance, time-of-arrival error, eye-tracking data, and safety ratings) are presented. Flight deck simulation work done in collaboration with DLR is described. Flight deck research issues in future auto-taxi operations are also introduced.

A Comparative Study on China-U.S.' APTHS (Academic Proficiency Test for High Schools): Past, Present and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Xin; Yan, Wenfan

2012-01-01

This study followed the comparative research mode of description, interpretation, juxtaposition and comparison. Based on the literatures and data collected on the topic, the paper compared and analyzed the past, present and future of APTHS (academic proficiency test for high schools) in the two countries. Some contemplations on the common issues…

Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2011-01-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

Stakeholder Views on Attributes of Scientific Literacy Important for Future Citizens and Employees--A Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Post, Aveliis; Rannikmae, Miia; Holbrook, Jack

2011-01-01

This study is based on the creation of a theoretical tool for determining competencies and knowledge in science education which stakeholders value as necessary for students to become productive members of the future work force as well as responsible citizens. Stakeholders' opinions (N = 85) were gathered from persons in different walks of life by…

Motivated for Leisure in the Future: A Person-Centred Longitudinal Study in the Lowest Level of Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Veen, Ineke; Peetsma, Thea

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200 12-13 year old students attending the lowest level…

Innovations and Future Directions for Early Numeracy Curriculum-Based Measurement: Commentary on the Special Series, Part 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Methe, Scott A.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this extended commentary article is to frame the set of studies in the first of two issues and recommend areas of inquiry for future research. This special series issue features studies examining the technical qualities of formative assessment procedures that were developed to inform intervention. This article intends to emphasize…

Collaborative 3D Learning Games for Future Learning: Teachers' Instructional Practices to Enhance Shared Knowledge Construction among Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hämäläinen, Raija; Oksanen, Kimmo

2014-01-01

Collaborative games will enable new kinds of possibilities for learning. In the future, the goal of game-based learning should be to introduce new ideas and deepen learners' in-depth understanding. However, studies have shown that shared high-level knowledge construction is a challenging process. Moreover, thus far, few empirical studies have…

CFD Vision 2030 Study: A Path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slotnick, Jeffrey; Khodadoust, Abdollah; Alonso, Juan; Darmofal, David; Gropp, William; Lurie, Elizabeth; Mavriplis, Dimitri

2014-01-01

This report documents the results of a study to address the long range, strategic planning required by NASA's Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) program in the area of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), including future software and hardware requirements for High Performance Computing (HPC). Specifically, the "Vision 2030" CFD study is to provide a knowledge-based forecast of the future computational capabilities required for turbulent, transitional, and reacting flow simulations across a broad Mach number regime, and to lay the foundation for the development of a future framework and/or environment where physics-based, accurate predictions of complex turbulent flows, including flow separation, can be accomplished routinely and efficiently in cooperation with other physics-based simulations to enable multi-physics analysis and design. Specific technical requirements from the aerospace industrial and scientific communities were obtained to determine critical capability gaps, anticipated technical challenges, and impediments to achieving the target CFD capability in 2030. A preliminary development plan and roadmap were created to help focus investments in technology development to help achieve the CFD vision in 2030.

MOEMs-based new functionalities for future instrumentation in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamkotsian, Frédéric; Liotard, Arnaud; Viard, Thierry; Costes, Vincent; Hébert, Philippe-Jean; Hinglais, Emmanuel; Villenave, Michel

2017-11-01

Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MOEMS) could be key components in future generation of space instruments. In Earth Observation, Universe Observation and Planet Exploration, scientific return of the instruments must be optimized in future missions. MOEMS devices are based on the mature micro-electronics technology and in addition to their compactness, scalability, and specific task customization, they could generate new functions not available with current technologies. CNES has initiated a study with LAM and TAS for listing the new functions associated with several types of MEMS (programmable slits, programmable micro-diffraction gratings, micro-deformable mirrors). Instrumental applications are then derived and promising concepts are described.

Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

PubMed

Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

2018-03-01

Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reserve growth of oil and gas fields—Investigations and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, Troy A.

2013-01-01

The reserve growth of fields has been a topic for ongoing discussion for over half a century and will continue to be studied well into the future. This is due to the expected size of the volumetric contribution of reserve growth to the future supply of oil and natural gas. Understanding past methods of estimating future volumes based on the data assembly methods that have been used can lead to a better understanding of their applicability. The statistical nature of past methods and the (1) possible high level of dependency on a limited number of fields, (2) assumption of an age-based correlation with effective reserve growth, and (3) assumption of long-lived and more common than not reserve growth, may be improved by employing a more geologically based approach.

The Anticipated Positive Psychosocial Impact of Present Web-Based E-Health Services and Future Mobile Health Applications: An Investigation among Older Swedes.

PubMed

Wiklund Axelsson, S; Nyberg, L; Näslund, A; Melander Wikman, A

2013-01-01

This study investigates the anticipated psychosocial impact of present web-based e-health services and future mobile health applications among older Swedes. Random sample's of Swedish citizens aged 55 years old and older were given a survey containing two different e-health scenarios which respondents rated according to their anticipated psychosocial impact by means of the PIADS instrument. Results consistently demonstrated the positive anticipation of psychosocial impacts for both scenarios. The future mobile health applications scored more positively than the present web-based e-health services. An increase in age correlated positively to lower impact scores. These findings indicate that from a psychosocial perspective, web-based e-health services and mobile health applications are likely to positively impact quality of life. This knowledge can be helpful when tailoring and implementing e-health services that are directed to older people.

Precipitation and temperature regime over Cyprus as a result of global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K. V.; Zerefos, C.

2010-02-01

In this study, the impact of global climate change on the temperature and precipitation regime over the island of Cyprus has been investigated. The analysis is based on daily output from a regional climate model (RCM) at a high horizontal resolution (25 km) produced within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project. The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions. Two future periods are studied, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. For the study area and over the study period, an analysis of the changes associated with the temperature regime and the hydrological cycle, such as mean precipitation and drought duration, is presented. Variations in the mean annual and seasonal rainfall are presented. Changes in the number of hot days/warm nights as well as drought duration are also discussed. These changes should be very important to assess future possible water shortages over the island and to provide a basis for associated impacts on the agricultural sector.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2016-04-01

In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

Implementation and Outcomes of Inquiry-Based Learning in Mathematics Content Courses for Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laursen, Sandra L.; Hassi, Marja-Liisa; Hough, Sarah

2016-01-01

This mixed-methods study describes classroom characteristics and student outcomes from university mathematics courses that are based in mathematics departments, targeted to future pre-tertiary teachers, and taught with inquiry-based learning (IBL) approaches. The study focused on three two-term sequences taught at two research universities,…

Connections Between Future Time Perspectives and Self-Regulated Learning for Mid-Year Engineering Students: A Multiple Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chasmar, Justine

This dissertation presents multiple studies with the purpose of understanding the connections between undergraduate engineering students' motivations, specifically students' Future Time Perspectives (FTPs) and Self-Regulated Learning (SRL). FTP refers to the views students hold about the future and how their perceptions of current tasks are affected by these views. SRL connects the behaviors, metacognition, and motivation of students in their learning. The goals of this research project were to 1) qualitatively describe and document engineering students' SRL strategies, 2) examine interactions between engineering students' FTPs and SRL strategy use, and 3) explore goal-setting as a bridge between FTP and SRL. In an exploratory qualitative study with mid-year industrial engineering students to examine the SRL strategies used before and after an SRL intervention, results showed that students intended to use more SRL strategies than they attempted. However, students self-reported using new SRL strategies from the intervention. Students in this population also completed a survey and a single interview about FTP and SRL. Results showed perceptions of instrumentality of coursework and skills as motivation for using SRL strategies, and a varied use of SRL strategies for students with different FTPs. Overall, three types of student FTP were seen: students with a single realistic view of the future, conflicting ideal and realistic future views, or open views of the future. A sequential explanatory mixed methods study was conducted with mid-year students from multiple engineering majors. First a cluster analysis of survey results of FTP items compared to FTP interview responses was used for participant selection. Then a multiple case study was conducted with data collected through surveys, journal entries, course performance, and two interviews. Results showed that students with a well-defined FTP self-regulated in the present based on their varied perceptions of instrumentality for their present tasks and evaluated and adapted their SRL strategies based on grades. Students with conflicting perceptions of the future used a high level of SRL in courses related to both conflicting future paths or related to their short-term goals. Students with open views had high SRL in most of their courses due to a high perception of instrumentality for their present courses. Implications for practice include use of a context-based SRL intervention to teach effective learning strategies, a shift of key general education courses to earlier in the engineering curriculum, and utilization of career-focused problems to support student FTP development and stress the importance of course content in future engineering careers.

Barriers to and Enablers of Contraceptive Use among Adolescent Females and their Interest in an Emergency Department-based Intervention

PubMed Central

Chernick, Lauren S; Schnall, Rebecca; Higgins, Tracy; Stockwell, Melissa; Castaño, Paula; Santelli, John; Dayan, Peter S

2015-01-01

Objective Over 15 million adolescents, many at high risk for pregnancy, use emergency departments (ED) in the United States annually, but little is known regarding reasons for failure to use contraceptives in this population. The purpose of this study was to identify the barriers to and enablers of contraceptive use among adolescent females using the ED and determine their interest in an ED-based pregnancy prevention intervention. Study Design We conducted semi-structured, open-ended interviews with females in an urban ED. Eligible females were 14-19 years old, sexually active, presenting for reproductive health complaints, and at risk for pregnancy, defined as non-use of effective (per the World Health Organization) contraception. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded based on thematic analysis. Enrollment continued until no new themes emerged. A modified Health Belief Model guided the organization of the data. Results Participants (n=14) were predominantly Hispanic (93%), insured (93%), and in a sexual relationship (86%). The primary barrier to contraceptive use was perceived health risk, including effects on menstruation, weight, and future fertility. Other barriers consisted of mistrust in contraceptives, ambivalent pregnancy intentions, uncertainty about the future, partner's desire for pregnancy, and limited access to contraceptives. Enablers of past contraceptive use included the presence of a school-based health clinic and clear plans for the future. All participants were receptive to ED-based pregnancy prevention interventions. Conclusions The identified barriers and enablers influencing hormonal contraceptive use can be used to inform the design of future ED-based adolescent pregnancy prevention interventions. PMID:25499588

Electricity Market Games: How Agent-Based Modeling Can Help under High Penetrations of Variable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

Integrating increasingly high levels of variable generation in U.S. electricity markets requires addressing not only power system and grid modeling challenges but also an understanding of how market participants react and adapt to them. Key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach, which may prove to be a useful paradigm for researchers studying and planning for power systems of the future.

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

The use of cue familiarity during retrieval failure is affected by past versus future orientation.

PubMed

Cleary, Anne M

2015-01-01

Cue familiarity that is brought on by cue resemblance to memory representations is useful for judging the likelihood of a past occurrence with an item that fails to actually be retrieved from memory. The present study examined the extent to which this type of resemblance-based cue familiarity is used in future-oriented judgments made during retrieval failure. Cue familiarity was manipulated using a previously-established method of creating differing degrees of feature overlap between the cue and studied items in memory, and the primary interest was in how these varying degrees of cue familiarity would influence future-oriented feeling-of-knowing (FOK) judgments given in instances of cued recall failure. The present results suggest that participants do use increases in resemblance-based cue familiarity to infer an increased likelihood of future recognition of an unretrieved target, but not to the extent that they use it to infer an increased likelihood of past experience with an unretrieved target. During retrieval failure, the increase in future-oriented FOK judgments with increasing cue familiarity was significantly less than the increase in past-oriented recognition judgments with increasing cue familiarity.

Phonics Curriculum-Based Measurement: An Initial Study of Reliability and Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, Chad C.

2014-01-01

Early literacy and reading skills are both important predictors of an individual's future success in school and employment settings (Moats, 1999). Moreover, poor reading performance in elementary school has been associated with future conduct problems and juvenile delinquency by age fifteen (Williams, 1994). Research supports the notion that…

SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE SAN PEDRO RIVER, ANALYZING HYDROLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES FOR A FUTURE ENVIRONMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in ...

Future Teachers' Spatial Thinking Skills and Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Euikyung E.; Milson, Andrew J.; Smith, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

The spatial thinking skills and attitudes of geography majors were compared with those of future teachers majoring in elementary education and secondary social studies education. Scores were obtained for each group on two measures: the spatial skills test and the attitude toward spatial thinking inventory. Mean differences were examined based on…

Urinary Sugars--A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake.

PubMed

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-07-15

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies.

Urinary Sugars—A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake

PubMed Central

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-01-01

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies. PMID:26184307

Forecasting the Future Food Service World of Work. Final Report. Volume III. Technical Papers on the Future of the Food Service Industry. Service Management Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Thomas F., Ed.; Swinton, John R., Ed.

This third and final volume of a study on the future of the food service industry contains the technical papers on which the information in the previous two volumes was based. The papers were written by various members of the Pennsylvania State University departments of economics, food science, nutrition, social psychology, and engineering and by…

Technology-based interpersonal victimization: predictors of patterns of victimization over time.

PubMed

Korchmaros, Josephine D; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Ybarra, Michele L

2014-05-01

The objective of this study was to identify factors that could predict youth's future technology-based interpersonal victimization and the pattern of that future victimization over time. Data from Growing up With Media, a national, longitudinal, online study were analyzed. At baseline, participants (N = 1,018) were 10- to 15-year-old English speakers who had used the Internet at least once in the last 6 months. Twenty-nine percent reported repeat technology-based interpersonal victimization over a 2-year period (re-victimized group); 10% were victims during only Year 1 (desisted victimized group); and 17% reported victimization during only Year 2 (later victimized group). Of the individual risk factors examined, prior technology-based interpersonal victimization and current amount of Internet use had the strongest overall associations with pattern of technology-based interpersonal victimization over the subsequent 2-year period. There was substantial overlap among the individual risk factors. Thus, they could be thought of more simply in terms of four latent risk and three individual risk factors. On average, across these seven risk factors, repeat victims had the greatest average risk score (0.21) and the not victimized group had the lowest (-0.16). Repeat victims were more likely to be female and older and had more prior experience with problem behaviors, substance use, and negative parent-child relationships as compared with the other three groups. Being female, prior experience with problem behavior, prior substance use, and prior negative parent-child relationships were also associated with frequency of technology-based interpersonal victimization in the near (Year 1) and more distant (Year 2) future. Many of these risk factors related to technology-based victimization over time are malleable, suggesting opportunities for effective targeting of future prevention efforts.

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

A Mars base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soule, Veronique

1989-01-01

This study was initiated to provide an approach to the development of a permanently manned Mars base. The objectives for a permanently manned Mars base are numerous. Primarily, human presence on Mars will allow utilization of new resources for the improvement of the quality of life on Earth, allowing for new discoveries in technologies, the solar system, and human physiology. Such a mission would also encourage interaction between different countries, increasing international cooperation and leading to a stronger unification of mankind. Surface studies of Mars, scientific experiments in the multiple fields, the research for new minerals, and natural resource production are more immediate goals of the Mars mission. Finally, in the future, colonization of Mars will ensure man's perpetual presence in the universe. Specific objectives of this study were: (1) to design a Mars habitat that minimizes the mass delivered to the Mars surface, provides long-stay capability for the base crew, and accommodates future expansion and modification; (2) to develop a scenario of the construction of a permanently manned Mars base; and (3) to incorporate new and envisioned technologies.

The lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Chen-Chen; Ji, Shen-Dan; Su, Li-Ling; Li, Sai-Ping; Ren, Fei

2016-02-01

The study of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures is of great importance for its wide application in hedging and portfolio investments. Previous works mainly use conventional methods like Granger causality test, GARCH model and error correction model, and focus on the causality relation between the index and futures in a certain period. By using a non-parametric approach-thermal optimal path (TOP) method, we study the lead-lag relationship between China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), Hang Seng Index (HSI), Standard and Poor 500 (S&P 500) Index and their associated futures to reveal the variance of their relationship over time. Our finding shows evidence of pronounced futures leadership for well established index futures, namely HSI and S&P 500 index futures, while index of developing market like CSI 300 has pronounced leadership. We offer an explanation based on the measure of an indicator which quantifies the differences between spot and futures prices for the surge of lead-lag function. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, which is valuable for the study of market efficiency and its applications.

Zymomonas mobilis: a novel platform for future biorefineries

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Biosynthesis of liquid fuels and biomass-based building block chemicals from microorganisms have been regarded as a competitive alternative route to traditional. Zymomonas mobilis possesses a number of desirable characteristics for its special Entner-Doudoroff pathway, which makes it an ideal platform for both metabolic engineering and commercial-scale production of desirable bio-products as the same as Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae based on consideration of future biomass biorefinery. Z. mobilis has been studied extensively on both fundamental and applied level, which will provide a basis for industrial biotechnology in the future. Furthermore, metabolic engineering of Z. mobilis for enhancing bio-ethanol production from biomass resources has been significantly promoted by different methods (i.e. mutagenesis, adaptive laboratory evolution, specific gene knock-out, and metabolic engineering). In addition, the feasibility of representative metabolites, i.e. sorbitol, bionic acid, levan, succinic acid, isobutanol, and isobutanol produced by Z. mobilis and the strategies for strain improvements are also discussed or highlighted in this paper. Moreover, this review will present some guidelines for future developments in the bio-based chemical production using Z. mobilis as a novel industrial platform for future biofineries. PMID:25024744

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Hao; Ning, Shaowei; Hiroshi, Ishidaira

2018-06-01

Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM). In addition, future leaf area index (LAI) is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC) based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

'I'm Happy if I Can Help'. Public views on future medicines and gene-based therapy in Iceland.

PubMed

Traulsen, Janine M; Bjornsdóttir, Ingunn; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna

2008-01-01

To explore lay perceptions about medicine and drug therapy (including gene-based therapy) in the present and in the future. Following almost a year of national debate, the Icelandic parliament passed the Health Sector Database (HSD) Act in 1998. No single issue has been as much debated in Iceland as this database. Despite the explosion of popular and scientific literature in the field of bioethics, there is still a paucity of research concerning 'lay' contributions to the debates. The study was designed as a qualitative study. Focus groups (FGs) were conducted followed by one-on-one interviews with the FG moderator. PARTICIPANTS were asked to comment on a future scenario consisting of predictions concerning the consequence of the Human Genome Project over the next 40 years. Forty-two persons participated in eight FGs in Iceland. The Icelandic moderator was interviewed in English after each group. The lay public was relatively optimistic with regard to the future of drugs and gene-based therapy. Reasons for this optimism can be found in a basic trust and belief in the welfare state and the health system. These results are not consistent with studies carried out in other countries where the public appears to be focused on the negative effects of genetic research and the threats to privacy. Most participants expressed concern about potential problems with regard to social and equity issues, whereas the HSD controversy, a discourse based on the rhetoric of bioethics, was at variance with the issues focused on by the lay public. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Characterization of Metering, Merging and Spacing Requirements for Future Trajectory-Based Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Sally

2017-01-01

Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) is one of the essential paradigm shifts in the NextGen transformation of the National Airspace System. Under TBO, aircraft are managed by 4-dimensional trajectories, and airborne and ground-based metering, merging, and spacing operations are key to managing those trajectories. This paper presents the results of a study of potential metering, merging, and spacing operations within a future TBO environment. A number of operational scenarios for tactical and strategic uses of metering, merging, and spacing are described, and interdependencies between concurrent tactical and strategic operations are identified.

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Implementation of a Standards-Based Grading Model: A Study of Parent and Teacher Perceptions of Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wheeler, Amber D.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore the perceptions of parents and teachers regarding the success of a standards-based grading initiative in meeting its goals. Furthermore, findings from this study will be used to inform decisions made in future grade level implementations. Standards-based grading meets all criteria for a problem of practice.…

Strengthening Sustainability and Resiliency of a Future Force, Phase 1. FY2010-2011 Summer Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

Resiliency of a Future Force: Phase I Interim Report - 48 Please Enter Custom Water factor adjustments below: m Unit Level* (Gat/Ptisan/ Dti ...cost of mov- ing the consumables in terms of the assets required to move the commodity and the security Intra Theater Resupply: 4 Legs Army...Expeditionary Force-Logistics ResupplyDetails Legl Leg 2 Leg 3 Leg 4 Resupply Trip Legs Super FOB (Div)to Base Camp (bde) Base Camp (Bde) to FOB (Bn

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

The Current Status and Future Directions in the Development of the Cyber Home Learning System in Korea

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Myunghee; Kim, Seyoung; Yoon, Seonghye; Chung, Warren

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to set future directions of the Cyber Home Learning System in Korea based on its current status. The Cyber Home Learning System has been designed and used by K-12 students to study voluntarily at home using online lessons. The development process of the Cyber Home Learning System was composed of the following four…

Comparison of Detector Technologies for CAPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stockum, Jana L.

2005-01-01

In this paper, several different detectors are examined for use in a Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS), a conceptual study for a possible future space-based system. Each detector will be examined for its future (25 years or more in the future) ability to find and track near-Earth Objects (NEOs) from a space-based detection platform. Within the CAPS study are several teams of people who each focus on different aspects of the system concept. This study s focus is on detection devices. In particular, evaluations on the following devices have been made: charge-coupled devices (CCDs), charge-injected devices (CIDs), superconducting tunneling junctions (STJs), and transition edge sensors (TESs). These devices can be separated into two main categories; the first category includes detectors that are currently being widely utilized, such as CCDs and CIDs. The second category includes experimental detectors, such as STJs and TESs. After the discussion of the detectors themselves, there will be a section devoted to the explicit use of these detectors with CAPS.

Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

PubMed

Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

2015-01-01

Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Task-Based Pronunciation Teaching and Research: Key Issues and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mora, Joan C.; Levkina, Mayya

2017-01-01

This article synthesizes the conclusions of the empirical studies in this special issue and outlines key questions in future research. The research reported in this volume has identified several fundamental issues in pronunciation-focused task design that are discussed in detail and on which suggestions for further research are outlined. One…

The Enterprise of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Dennis J.

2009-01-01

Last year, IBM Corporation conducted a study to determine what the successful enterprise of the future would look like. Its research was based on surveys of 1,130 CEOs, general managers, and senior public sector and business leaders from around the world. A few college and university presidents also were asked to participate. After 30 years as a…

Whose Voices Will Be Heard? Creating a Vision for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Margit E.

1992-01-01

Discusses society in the future. Expresses concern over social problems and misuse by the media of terms relating to diversity and multiculturalism. Lists themes for effective instruction in social studies as integration of topics and meaningful, challenging, active, and value-based learning. Urges that self-esteem, mutual respect, and cooperative…

Equipped for the Future. Preparing for Work: A Guide for Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Literacy Studies, University of Tennessee (NJ3), 2011

2011-01-01

"Preparing for Work," developed by Equipped for the Future at the Center for Literacy Studies, University of Tennessee, is a skills-based course designed for implementation in organizations and agencies involved in preparing their clients and students for entry level work. Each of the instructional modules that comprise the…

Occupational Outlets for Middle Level Training. What Is the Future of Middle Level Training?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Paul; Cesnich, Janine

This project intended to determine whether a middle-level employment base existed in manufacturing and service industries in South Australia and to examine current trends and future directions of middle-level (paraprofessional) vocational training. The study used the following methods: literature review; labor market analysis; surveys of…

Evaluation of Future Blogs. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haines, Ben; Straw, Suzanne

2008-01-01

Future Blogs was developed through collaboration between the Royal Society of Chemistry and The Brightside Trust. It is an innovative e-mentoring scheme that links pupils studying chemistry with mentors from universities or industry and is based on the Bright Journals e-mentoring programme (an e-mentoring scheme targeted at 14-18 year olds…

Stylistics in Teacher Training: Research Programs and Future Prospects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ventura, Ana Clara

2016-01-01

The aim of this research is to analyse and systematize the conceptual and empirical bases of the available literature on research approaches, objects of study, and future prospects in the field of stylistics, in order to encourage best practice in teacher training. Three research approaches are presented: the empiricist-behaviorist approach, the…

Adolescents' Hopes for Personal, Local, and Global Future: Insights from Ukraine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nikolayenko, Olena

2011-01-01

This study explores adolescents' hopes for personal, local, and global future in postcommunist Ukraine. The research is based on a survey of 200 sixth-graders in the cities of Donetsk and Lviv in fall 2005. The analysis identifies six domains related to personal aspirations of adolescents: education, career, self-actualization, personal…

Is Episodic Future Thinking Important for Instrumental Activities of Daily Living? A Study in Neurological Patients and Healthy Older Adults.

PubMed

Brunette, Amanda M; Calamia, Matthew; Black, Jenah; Tranel, Daniel

2018-06-11

Episodic future thinking is the ability to mentally project oneself into the future. This construct has been explored extensively in cognitive neuroscience and may be relevant for adaptive functioning. However, it has not been determined whether the measurement of episodic future thinking might be valuable in a clinical neuropsychological setting. The current study investigated (1) the relationship between episodic future thinking and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs); and (2) whether episodic future thinking is related to IADLs over and above standard measures of cognition. Sixty-one older adults with heterogeneous neurological conditions and 41 healthy older adults completed a future thinking task (the adapted Autobiographical Interview), a performance-based measure of instrumental activities of daily living (the Independent Living Scales), and standard clinical measures of memory and executive functioning. Episodic future thinking significantly predicted IADLs after accounting for age, education, gender, and depression (increase in R2 = .050, p = .010). Episodic future thinking significantly predicted IADLs over and above executive functioning (increase in R2 = .025, p = .030), but was not predictive of IADLs over and above memory (p = .157). This study suggests that episodic future thinking is significantly associated with IADLs, beyond what can be accounted for by executive functioning. However, episodic future thinking did not predict IADLs over and above memory. Overall, there is limited evidence for the clinical utility of episodic future thinking. The findings suggest that an episodic future thinking task does not provide enough valuable information about IADLs to justify its inclusion in a clinical neuropsychological setting.

Future of Space Astronomy: A Global Road Map for the Next Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ubertini, Pietro; Gehrels, Neil; Corbett, Ian; DeBernardis, Paolo; Machado, Marcos; Griffin, Matt; Hauser, Michael; Manchanda, Ravinder K.; Kawai, Nobuyuki; Zhang, Shuang-Nan;

A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

PubMed

Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

2014-05-01

Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

A Framework for the Study of Emotions in Organizational Contexts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiebig, Greg V.; Kramer, Michael W.

1998-01-01

Approaches the study of emotions in organizations holistically, based on a proposed framework. Provides descriptive data that suggests the presence of the framework's major elements. States that future examination of emotions based on this framework should assist in understanding emotions, which are frequently ignored in a rational model. (PA)

Identifying the Correlates and Barriers of Future Planning Among Parents of Individuals With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Burke, Meghan; Arnold, Catherine; Owen, Aleksa

2018-04-01

Although individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are living longer lives, fewer than half of parents of individuals with IDD conduct future planning. The correlates and barriers to future planning must be identified to develop targeted interventions to facilitate future planning. In this study, 388 parents of individuals with IDD responded to a national, web-based survey. Participants who were older, more educated, attended more parent training and support activities, and had children with fewer functional abilities, were more likely to engage in future planning. Reported barriers to future planning included: (a) lack of available services, (b) financial challenges, (c) reluctance of family members, (d) lack of time, (e) the emotional nature of future planning, (f) inertia, and (g) a lack of family members to be caregivers. Implications for policy, practice, and future research are discussed.

UTEX: integrated ultraviolet and x-ray astronomy facility on spacelab, phase a study. Volume 2: facility definition. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1976-07-01

The definition and feasibility study of an integrated ultraviolet and astronomy facility onboard Spacelab are presented. This is based on the scientific aims of different European countries. The accommodation of such a facility in the first and second Spacelab flights was also studied, taking into account external constraints of both flights and the possibility of future missions. Well identified possible work packages are outlined in view of future international cooperation.

Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

PubMed

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

2008-01-01

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

No smoke without fire: The impact of future friends on adolescent smoking behaviour.

PubMed

Mercken, L; Candel, M; van Osch, L; de Vries, H

2011-02-01

This study examined the impact of future friends and the contribution of different social influence and selection processes in predicting adolescents' smoking behaviour by extending the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). We investigated the impact of previous smoking, direct pressure from friends, descriptive norms of present and future friends, smoking-based selection of future friends, and distinguished between reciprocal and desired friends. A longitudinal design with three measurements was used. METHODSL: The sample consisted of 1,475 Dutch high school students (mean age = 12.7 years) that participated as a control group in the European Smoking prevention Framework Approach study at three measurements. Structural equation modelling revealed that adolescent smoking was influenced by intention, previous smoking, descriptive norms of parents and siblings, and that desired as well as reciprocal friends were selected based on similar smoking behaviour. Future friends indirectly influenced adolescent smoking through intention, as did attitude, subjective norms of parents and siblings, previous smoking, and descriptive norms of reciprocal friends and siblings. The present results suggest that descriptive norms and selection of friends need to be considered as major factors explaining smoking behaviour among adolescents besides the TPB components. These insights contribute to the further refinement of smoking prevention strategies. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Developing the International Business Curriculum: Results and Implications of a Delphi Study on the Futures of Teaching and Learning in International Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zettinig, Peter; Vincze, Zsuzsanna

2008-01-01

This article presents the results of a Delphi study concerning the futures of teaching and learning in International Business (IB), a topic that has been receiving a lot of discussion during recent years. Based on our findings we identify two dimensions which may be at the core and instrumental for developing the value proposition of IB. The first…

Is News Media Related to Civic Engagement? The Effects of Interest in and Discussions about the News Media on Current and Future Civic Engagement of Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erentaite, Rasa; Zukauskiene, Rita; Beyers, Wim; Pilkauskaite-Valickiene, Rasa

2012-01-01

This study explored whether discussions about the media, when positively linked to interest in the news media, were related to adolescents' current and future civic engagement. A sample of 2638 adolescents (age M = 17, SD = 1.2), who participated in a school-based study on positive socialization, completed self-report measures on interest in the…

Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One optionmore » includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.« less

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Microcomputers and the future of epidemiology.

PubMed Central

Dean, A G

1994-01-01

The Workshop on Microcomputers and the Future of Epidemiology was held March 8-9, 1993, at the Turner Conference Center, Atlanta, GA, with 130 public health professionals participating. The purpose of the workshop was to define microcomputer needs in epidemiology and to propose future initiatives. Thirteen groups representing public health disciplines defined their needs for better and more useful data, development of computer technology appropriate to epidemiology, user support and human infrastructure development, and global communication and planning. Initiatives proposed were demonstration of health surveillance systems, new software and hardware, computer-based training, projects to establish or improve data bases and community access to data bases, improved international communication, conferences on microcomputer use in particular disciplines, a suggestion to encourage competition in the production of public-domain software, and longrange global planning for epidemiologic computing and data management. Other interested groups are urged to study, modify, and implement those ideas. PMID:7910692

Offshore marine constructions as propagators of moon jellyfish dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vodopivec, Martin; Peliz, Álvaro J.; Malej, Alenka

2017-08-01

We have studied the influence of offshore marine constructions on the moon jellyfish population in the Adriatic sea, where the newly set up substrates enable the formation of a new population based in the formerly unpopulated open waters. Our five-year long computer simulation uses a high resolution coupled bio-physical individual-based model to track the dispersal of the offspring from subpopulations originating from offshore and shore-based sources. According to our study, the platforms enhance connectivity between subpopulations of jellyfish polyps, help sustain existing shore-based subpopulations, contribute to jellyfish blooms in some areas, and play an important role in establishing connection with the rest of the Mediterranean, in addition to representing substantial amounts of available substrate. This is an aspect that is usually overlooked when evaluating the ecological impact of existing and future wind farms, oil and gas platforms, etc. Our approach could serve as a role model in future studies of ecological impacts of planned offshore constructions.

Topical Review: Adherence Interventions for Youth on Gluten-Free Diets.

PubMed

Holbein, Christina E; Carmody, Julia K; Hommel, Kevin A

2018-05-01

To summarize gluten-free diet (GFD) nonadherence risk factors, nonadherence rates, and current intervention research within an integrative framework and to develop a research agenda for the development and implementation of evidence-based GFD adherence interventions. Topical review of literature published since 2008 investigating GFD adherence in pediatric samples. Reviews of pediatric studies indicate GFD nonadherence rates ranging from 19 to 56%. There are few evidence-based, published pediatric GFD adherence interventions. Novel assessments of GFD adherence are promising but require further study. Nonmodifiable and modifiable factors within individual, family, community, and health systems domains must be considered when developing future interventions. Clinical implications are discussed. Avenues for future research include development and refinement of adherence assessment tools and development of evidence-based GFD adherence interventions. Novel technologies (e.g., GFD mobile applications) require empirical study but present exciting opportunities for adherence intervention.

Work ability score and future work ability as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence: A three-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Kinnunen, Ulla; Nätti, Jouko

2018-05-01

We investigated two single items of the Work Ability Index - work ability score, and future work ability - as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence over a three-year follow-up. Survey responses of 11,131 Finnish employees were linked to pension and long-term (more than 10 days) sickness absence register data by Statistics Finland. Work ability score was divided into poor (0-5), moderate (6-7) and good/excellent (8-10) and future work ability into poor (1-2) and good (3) work ability at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used in the analysis of disability pension, and a negative binomial model in the analysis of long-term sickness absence. The results were adjusted for several background, work- and health-related covariates. Compared with those with good/excellent work ability scores, the hazard ratios of disability pension after adjusting for all covariates were 9.84 (95% CI 6.68-14.49) for poor and 2.25 (CI 95% 1.51-3.35) for moderate work ability score. For future work ability, the hazard ratio was 8.19 (95% CI 4.71-14.23) among those with poor future work ability. The incidence rate ratios of accumulated long-term sickness absence days were 3.08 (95% CI 2.19-4.32) and 1.59 (95% CI 1.32-1.92) for poor and moderate work ability scores, and 1.51 (95% CI 0.97-2.36) for poor future work ability. The single items of work ability score and future work ability predicted register-based disability pension equally well, but work ability score was a better predictor of register-based long-term sickness absence days than future work ability in a three-year follow-up. Both items seem to be of use especially when examining the risk of poor work ability for disability but also for long sick leave.

Carbon-nanotube-based liquids: a new class of nanomaterials and their applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phan, Ngoc Minh; Thang Bui, Hung; Nguyen, Manh Hong; Khoi Phan, Hong

2014-03-01

Carbon-nanotube-based liquids—a new class of nanomaterials—have shown many interesting properties and distinctive features offering unprecedented potential for many applications. This paper summarizes the recent progress on the study of the preparation, characterization and properties of carbon-nanotube-based liquids including so-called nanofluids, nanolubricants and different kinds of nanosolutions containing multi-walled carbon nanotubes/single-walled carbon nanotubes/graphene. A broad range of current and future applications of these nanomaterials in the fields of energy saving, power electronic and optoelectronic devices, biotechnology and agriculture are presented. The paper also identifies challenges and opportunities for future research.

Mental time travel to the future might be reduced in sleep.

PubMed

Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

2017-02-01

We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the future in sleep. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 563 physiology-monitored mentation reports from sleep onset, REM sleep, non-REM sleep, and waking. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis is based on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories and has been validated in previous studies. Our data indicate that REM and non-REM sleep must be characterized by a reduction in mental time travel to the future, which would support earlier physiological evidence at the level of brain function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) Ada performance study report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booth, Eric W.; Stark, Michael E.

1991-01-01

The goals of the Ada Performance Study are described. The methods used are explained. Guidelines for future Ada development efforts are given. The goals and scope of the study are detailed, and the background of Ada development in the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) is presented. The organization and overall purpose of each test are discussed. The purpose, methods, and results of each test and analyses of these results are given. Guidelines for future development efforts based on the analysis of results from this study are provided. The approach used on the performance tests is discussed.

Heterogeneous Catalysis: A Central Science for a Sustainable Future.

PubMed

Friend, Cynthia M; Xu, Bingjun

2017-03-21

Developing active, selective, and energy efficient heterogeneous catalytic processes is key to a sustainable future because heterogeneous catalysis is at the center of the chemicals and energy industries. The design, testing, and implementation of robust and selective heterogeneous catalytic processes based on insights from fundamental studies could have a tremendous positive impact on the world.

Future Time Perspective and Motivational Categories in Argentinean Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vazquez, Stella Maris; Rapetti, Maria Virginia

2006-01-01

This study is based on a sample of 332 Argentinean teenagers in their last year of secondary school. In the context of the relational theory of motivation, an attempt is made to determine the motivational categories best predicting Future Time Perspective (FTP) extension. The influence of the sex, locus of control, social class, and school ethos…

Communications and Tracking Distributed Systems Evolution Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Culpepper, William

1990-01-01

The Communications and Tracking (C & T) techniques and equipment to support evolutionary space station concepts are being analyzed. Evolutionary space station configurations and operational concepts are used to derive the results to date. A description of the C & T system based on future capability needs is presented. Included are the hooks and scars currently identified to support future growth.

Critical Neural Substrates for Correcting Unexpected Trajectory Errors and Learning from Them

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mutha, Pratik K.; Sainburg, Robert L.; Haaland, Kathleen Y.

2011-01-01

Our proficiency at any skill is critically dependent on the ability to monitor our performance, correct errors and adapt subsequent movements so that errors are avoided in the future. In this study, we aimed to dissociate the neural substrates critical for correcting unexpected trajectory errors and learning to adapt future movements based on…

What Inspires South African Student Teachers for Their Future Profession

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolhuter, Charl; van der Walt, Hannes; Potgieter, Ferdinand; Meyer, Louisa; Mamiala, Thapelo

2012-01-01

The need for an inspired professional teacher corps to haul South African school education out of its current low level of quality was the driving force behind this project. Its aim was to determine what counted as sources of inspiration for student teachers and hence for future teachers. Based on a conceptual-theoretical study, a questionnaire…

The Impact of FTP on Commitment to Career Choices: Situating within a Social Cognitive Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy P.

2015-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is an important theoretical construct that may assist educators in their understanding of individuals' learning, motivation and decision-making. There is empirical evidence attesting to the predictive effects of anticipation of future goals on both cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes. The present study, based on…

Onward to Outcomes in the School of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Millea, Susan

This paper discusses the results of a study that investigated the effectiveness of a comprehensive school-based service program in Texas. The "School for the Future" project was a 5-year demonstration project in 4 Texas cities that was designed to develop and coordinate health and social services though targeted schools in low income,…

Uncertainties in discharge projections in consequence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebert, J.; Düthmann, D.; Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Ihringer, J.; Kunstmann, H.; Merz, B.; Ott, I.; Schädler, G.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC summarizes possible effects of the global climate change. For Europe an increasing variability of temperature and precipitation is expected. While the increasing temperature is projected almost uniformly for Europe, for precipitation the models indicate partly heterogeneous tendencies. In order to maintain current safety-standards in the infrastructure of our various water management systems, the possible future floods discharges are very often a central question. In the planning and operation of water infrastructure systems uncertainties considerations have an important function. In times of climate change the analyses of measured historical gauge data (normally 30 - 80 years) are not sufficient enough, because even significant trends are only valid in the analyzed time period and extrapolations are exceedingly difficult. Therefore combined climate and hydrological modeling for scenario based projections become more and more popular. Regarding that adaptation measures in water infrastructure are in general very time-consuming and cost intensive qualified questions to the variability and uncertainty of model based results are important as well. The CEDIM-Project "Flood hazards in a changing climate" is focusing on both: future changes in flood discharge and assess the uncertainties that are involved in such model based future predictions. In detail the study bases on an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations in 3 representative small to medium sized German river catchments (Ammer, Mulde and Ruhr). The meteorological Input bases on 2 high resolution (7 km) regional climate models (RCM) driven by 2 global climate models (GCM) for the near future (2021 - 2050) following the A1B emission scenario (SRES). Two of the catchments (Ruhr and Mulde) have sub-mountainous and one (Ammer) has alpine character. Besides analyzing the future changes in discharge in the catchments, the describing and potential quantification of the variability of the results, based on the different driving data, regionalization methods, spatial resolutions and model types, is one main goal of the study and should stay in the focus of the poster. The general result is a large variability in the discharge projection. The identified variabilities are in the annual regime mainly attributable to different causes in the used model chain (GCM-RCM-HM). In winter the global climate models (GCM) bring the main uncertainties in the future projection. In summer the main variability refers to the meteorological downscaling to the regional scale (RCM) in combination with the hydrological modeling (HM). But with an appropriate ensemble statistic are despite the large variabilities mean future tendencies detectable. The Ruhr catchment shows tendencies to future higher flood discharges and in the Ammer and Mulde catchments are no significant changes expected.

Performance of today’s dual energy CT and future multi energy CT in virtual non-contrast imaging and in iodine quantification: A simulation study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faby, Sebastian, E-mail: sebastian.faby@dkfz.de; Kuchenbecker, Stefan; Sawall, Stefan

2015-07-15

Purpose: To study the performance of different dual energy computed tomography (DECT) techniques, which are available today, and future multi energy CT (MECT) employing novel photon counting detectors in an image-based material decomposition task. Methods: The material decomposition performance of different energy-resolved CT acquisition techniques is assessed and compared in a simulation study of virtual non-contrast imaging and iodine quantification. The material-specific images are obtained via a statistically optimal image-based material decomposition. A projection-based maximum likelihood approach was used for comparison with the authors’ image-based method. The different dedicated dual energy CT techniques are simulated employing realistic noise models andmore » x-ray spectra. The authors compare dual source DECT with fast kV switching DECT and the dual layer sandwich detector DECT approach. Subsequent scanning and a subtraction method are studied as well. Further, the authors benchmark future MECT with novel photon counting detectors in a dedicated DECT application against the performance of today’s DECT using a realistic model. Additionally, possible dual source concepts employing photon counting detectors are studied. Results: The DECT comparison study shows that dual source DECT has the best performance, followed by the fast kV switching technique and the sandwich detector approach. Comparing DECT with future MECT, the authors found noticeable material image quality improvements for an ideal photon counting detector; however, a realistic detector model with multiple energy bins predicts a performance on the level of dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Employing photon counting detectors in dual source concepts can improve the performance again above the level of a single realistic photon counting detector and also above the level of dual source DECT. Conclusions: Substantial differences in the performance of today’s DECT approaches were found for the application of virtual non-contrast and iodine imaging. Future MECT with realistic photon counting detectors currently can only perform comparably to dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Dual source concepts with photon counting detectors could be a solution to this problem, promising a better performance.« less

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Synthesis of discipline-based education research in physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Docktor, Jennifer L.; Mestre, José P.

2014-12-01

This paper presents a comprehensive synthesis of physics education research at the undergraduate level. It is based on work originally commissioned by the National Academies. Six topical areas are covered: (1) conceptual understanding, (2) problem solving, (3) curriculum and instruction, (4) assessment, (5) cognitive psychology, and (6) attitudes and beliefs about teaching and learning. Each topical section includes sample research questions, theoretical frameworks, common research methodologies, a summary of key findings, strengths and limitations of the research, and areas for future study. Supplemental material proposes promising future directions in physics education research.

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Van Aalst, Maarten; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whilst the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is lacking. Hence, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. In this study, we show that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We show that fatalities and losses as a share of exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Based on these findings, we simulate future flood impacts per country using traditional assumptions of static vulnerability through time, but also using future assumptions on reduced vulnerability in the future. We show that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies, including a reduction of vulnerability. The study was carried out using the global flood risk model, GLOFRIS, combined with high-resolution time-series maps of hazard and exposure at the global scale. Based on: Jongman et al., 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

Future View: Web Navigation based on Learning User's Browsing Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagino, Norikatsu; Yamada, Seiji

In this paper, we propose a Future View system that assists user's usual Web browsing. The Future View will prefetch Web pages based on user's browsing strategies and present them to a user in order to assist Web browsing. To learn user's browsing strategy, the Future View uses two types of learning classifier systems: a content-based classifier system for contents change patterns and an action-based classifier system for user's action patterns. The results of learning is applied to crawling by Web robots, and the gathered Web pages are presented to a user through a Web browser interface. We experimentally show effectiveness of navigation using the Future View.

77 FR 71426 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request: Healthy Communities Study: How Communities Shape Children's...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-30

... study examines quantitative and qualitative information obtained from community-based initiatives... future research initiatives targeting childhood obesity. Frequency of Response: One time. Affected Public...

Commerce Lab: Mission analysis. Payload integration study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvin, G. D.

1984-01-01

The objectives of the commerce lab mission analysis and payload integration study are discussed. A mission model which accommodates commercial users and provides a basic data base for future mission planning is described. The data bases developed under this study include: (1) user requirements; (2) apparatus capabilities and availabilities; and (3) carrier capabilities. These data bases are synthesized in a trades and analysis phase along with the STS flight opportunities. Optimum missions are identified.

An Exploratory Analysis of Projected Navy Officer Inventory Strength Using Data Farming

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

model’s run-time. 3. Base Case In addition to the experimental design, this study includes a base case scenario to serve as a baseline for comparison...47 3. SWO Operating Strength Deviation-Base Case One objective of this study is to determine the risk in operating strength deviation presented by...ANSWERS TO RESEARCH QUESTIONS ................................... 71  B.  RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE STUDIES ......................... 73  1.  Continuous

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2016-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

The Design and Development of an Online, Case-Based Course in a Teacher Preparation Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peña, Carmen M.

2004-01-01

The goals of this study were to: 1) design a web-based course using WebCT for future secondary school teachers at the University of Texas Pan American, 2) evaluate the effectiveness of the course, and 3) provide a set of guidelines for designing web-based courses for other teacher educators. The participants in this study consisted of junior- and…

Please Write: Using Critical Friend Letter Writing in Teacher Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samaras, Anastasia P.; Sell, Corey

2013-01-01

This study examines students' experiences using letter writing designed as a socio-cultural-based tool for critical friend work to promote dialogue and critique of their self-study teacher research projects. It seeks to understand their diverse experiences to inform future practice and contribute to the knowledge base of critical friend work in…

Methodological Issues in Research on Web-Based Behavioral Interventions

PubMed Central

Danaher, Brian G; Seeley, John R

2013-01-01

Background Web-based behavioral intervention research is rapidly growing. Purpose We review methodological issues shared across Web-based intervention research to help inform future research in this area. Methods We examine measures and their interpretation using exemplar studies and our research. Results We report on research designs used to evaluate Web-based interventions and recommend newer, blended designs. We review and critique methodological issues associated with recruitment, engagement, and social validity. Conclusions We suggest that there is value to viewing this burgeoning realm of research from the broader context of behavior change research. We conclude that many studies use blended research designs, that innovative mantling designs such as the Multiphase Optimization Strategy and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial methods hold considerable promise and should be used more widely, and that Web-based controls should be used instead of usual care or no-treatment controls in public health research. We recommend topics for future research that address participant recruitment, engagement, and social validity. PMID:19806416

Optimizing farm landscape by two decision-support tools for present and future: A case study in a mountainous farm of Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, S.; Lin, Y.

2013-12-01

Rapid expansion of agricultural land-use has been identified as the main factor degrading biodiversity. Many studies have indicated that habitat quality and connectivity for multiple species can be preserved by applying the systematic conservation planning and software programs for spatial conservation prioritizations are usually used by planners to solve conservation problems for present and future. However, each conservation software program uses different algorithms and may not be suitable or efficient for all case studies. Therefore, in this study we compared the performance of two commonly used decision-support tools, Marxan and Zonation, on identifying priority areas as reserve region for 16 bird species in the mountain area of Taiwan. The priority areas are considered as the results of the tradeoff between bird presence (biological factor) and agricultural products (economic factor). Marxan uses the minimum set approach to identify priority areas for meeting specific targets while Zonation uses the maximum coverage approach to identify priority areas given a fixed budget. Therefore, we design the scenario with the most comparable setting, which selects target-based planning as the removal rule and boundary length penalty option in zonation. The landscape composition and configuration of the simulated priority areas were further evaluated by using landscape metrics and their similarity were examined by using Spearman's rank tests. The results showed that Marxan performed more efficiently while Zonation generated the priority areas in better connectivity. As the selection of conservation programs depends on users objectives and needs for present and future, this study provides useful information on determining suitable and efficient decision-support tools for future bird conservation. Conservation maps for Zonation based on different BLP parameter. The conservation value for Zonation is based on the hierarchical solution output. (a)BLP =1000 (b)BLP =3000 (c)BLP =5000 (d)BLP =7000 Conservation maps for Marxan based on different BMP parameter. The conservation value for Marxan is based on the selection frequency. (a)BMP =2500 (b)BMP =5000 (c)BMP =7500 (d)BMP =10000

Drug knowledge bases and their applications in biomedical informatics research.

PubMed

Zhu, Yongjun; Elemento, Olivier; Pathak, Jyotishman; Wang, Fei

2018-01-03

Recent advances in biomedical research have generated a large volume of drug-related data. To effectively handle this flood of data, many initiatives have been taken to help researchers make good use of them. As the results of these initiatives, many drug knowledge bases have been constructed. They range from simple ones with specific focuses to comprehensive ones that contain information on almost every aspect of a drug. These curated drug knowledge bases have made significant contributions to the development of efficient and effective health information technologies for better health-care service delivery. Understanding and comparing existing drug knowledge bases and how they are applied in various biomedical studies will help us recognize the state of the art and design better knowledge bases in the future. In addition, researchers can get insights on novel applications of the drug knowledge bases through a review of successful use cases. In this study, we provide a review of existing popular drug knowledge bases and their applications in drug-related studies. We discuss challenges in constructing and using drug knowledge bases as well as future research directions toward a better ecosystem of drug knowledge bases. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Experiences and Future Expectations towards Online Courses--An Empirical Study of the B2C-and B2B-Segments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krämer, Andreas; Böhrs, Sandra

2016-01-01

This article explores the future potential for the development of online courses. The findings are based on an empirical study with 3 sample groups: (1) B2C segment in Germany, (2) B2C segment in the United States, and (3) B2B segment (international). In the first step the status quo of the use of e-learning in general and online courses in…

Air Force Leadership Study: The Need for Deliberate Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

Skills, 1. For future military operating environment studies, see Stephen J . Zaccaro, Richard J . Klimoski, and Lisa A. Boyce, The Changing U.S...fresh-voice -2176107.html. 13. Stephen J . Hagel et al., The Future of Global US Air Force Basing 2010– 2040, unpublished manuscript (Maxwell AFB, AL...it included the senior commanders of Amer- ica’s primary allies. Marshall’s simple calculus was Conner’s and, now, Eisenhower’s: If the United States

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social ecological factors associated with future orientation of children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS.

PubMed

Lin, Xiuyun; Fang, Xiaoyi; Chi, Peilian; Heath, Melissa Allen; Li, Xiaoming; Chen, Wenrui

2016-07-01

From a social ecological perspective, this study examined the effects of stigma (societal level), trusting relationships with current caregivers (familial level), and self-esteem (individual level) on future orientation of children affected by HIV infection and AIDS. Comparing self-report data from 1221 children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS and 404 unaffected children, affected children reported greater stigma and lower future orientation, trusting relationships, and self-esteem. Based on structural equation modeling, stigma experiences, trusting relationships, and self-esteem had direct effects on future orientation, with self-esteem and trusting relationships partially mediating the effect of stigma experiences on children's future orientation. Implications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Future Carrier-Based Tactical Aircraft Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-01

This report describes an aircraft database which was developed to identify technology trends for several classes of tactical naval aircraft, including subsonic attack, supersonic fighter, and supersonic multimission aircraft classes. This study used ...

Forging the Future: Establishing Core Competencies and the Skills, Knowledge and Abilities of Navy Junior Medical Service Corps Officers

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-08

has shifted their focus from acute based medicine to Force Health Protection, which encompasses health promotion and prevention and evidence based medicine , which...its focus on population health and evidence based medicine . Specifically for the Navy, however, the purpose of this study was to provide a base with

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Saskatchewan: Case Study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pittman, Jeremy; Wittrock, Virginia; Kulshreshtha, Surendra; Wheaton, Elaine

2011-01-01

With the likelihood of future changes in climate and climate variability, it is important to understand how human systems may be vulnerable. Rural communities in Saskatchewan having agricultural-based economies are particularly dependent on climate and could be among the most vulnerable human systems in Canada. Future changes in climate are likely…

Extensive Reading in EFL Classroom at Secondary Schools in Bangladesh: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haider, Md. Zulfeqar; Akhter, Elina

2012-01-01

Extensive reading is being practiced in many EFL and ESL classrooms as an effective means for developing learners' reading as well as other related skills. This paper is based on a small-scale study that explores the current practices and future possibilities of using extensive reading in the EFL classrooms at the junior secondary schools in…

A Blueprint for Human Resource Development in the Third Decade of the Ontario Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology: Executive Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giroux, Roy F.

In 1987, a review of Ontario's community college system was initiated to assess the system's present human resource development practices and plan future directions. A field-based study was conducted to identify and assess current human resource development efforts, identify areas for improvement, and suggest possible future directions. Through…

The effect of inquiry-based learning experiences on adolescents' science-related career aspiration in the Finnish context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Jingoo; Keinonen, Tuula

2017-08-01

Much research has been conducted to investigate the effects of inquiry-based learning on students' attitude towards science and future involvement in the science field, but few of them conducted in-depth studies including young learners' socio-cognitive background to explore mechanisms which explain how inquiry experiences influence on career choices. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate in what ways and to what extent the inquiry learning experiences in school science affect students' future career orientation in the context of socio-cognitive mechanisms based on socio-cognitive career theory(SCCT). For the purpose, Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015 data were used focusing on science literacy, and the sample of Finnish 15-year-old students (N = 5782) was analysed by structural equation modelling with the hypothesised Inquiry-SCCT model. The results of the study showed that inquiry learning experiences were indicated as a positive predictor for the students' career aspiration, and most of its effects were mediated by outcome expectations. Indeed, although self-efficacy and interest in learning science indicated positive correlations with future aspiration, outcome expectation presented the highest correlation with the science-related career. Gender differences were found in the model, but girls indicated higher outcome expectation and career aspiration than boys in Finland.

A cross-cultural analysis of posthumous reproduction: The significance of the gender and margins-of-life perspectives.

PubMed

Hashiloni-Dolev, Yael; Schicktanz, Silke

2017-06-01

The scholarly discussion of posthumous reproduction (PHR) focuses on informed consent and the welfare of the future child, for the most part overlooking cultural differences between societies. Based on a cross-cultural comparison of legal and regulatory documents, analysis of pivotal cases and study of scholarly and media discussions in Israel and Germany, this paper analyses the relevant ethical and policy issues, and questions how cultural differences shape the practice of PHR. The findings challenge the common classifications of PHR by highlighting the gender perspective and adding brain-dead pregnant women to the debate. Based on this study's findings, four neglected cultural factors affecting social attitudes towards PHR are identified: (i) the relationship between the pregnant woman and her future child; (ii) what constitutes the beginning of life; (iii) what constitutes dying; and (iv) the social agent(s) seeking to have the future child. The paper argues that PHR can be better understood by adding the gender and margins-of-life perspectives, and that future ethical and practical discussions of this issue could benefit from the criteria emerging from this cross-cultural analysis.

75 FR 65539 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-25

... directly in investments comprising or otherwise based on any combination of futures contracts, options on futures contracts, forward contracts, swap contracts, commodities and/or securities rather than solely in... investments comprising or otherwise based on any combination of futures contracts, options on futures...

When remembering the past suppresses memory for future actions.

PubMed

Utsumi, Kenta; Saito, Satoru

2016-01-01

Remembering planned actions at the correct time in the future is an integral component of prospective cognition. Recent studies on future remembering have led to suggestions that prospective cognition might be based on past experience. To test this hypothesis, we focused on retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF), which usually indicates that remembering past events suppresses memory for related but different past events. The current study assessed RIF in two kinds of event-based prospective memory (PM) tasks using either focal or non-focal cues for ongoing tasks. Participants studied six members from each of eight taxonomic categories and then practiced recalling three of the six members from four of the eight categories using category-stem cues. This retrieval practice suppressed the detection of non-practiced members of the practiced categories during the PM task with non-focal cues (Experiment 1) but not with focal cues (Experiment 2). The results suggest that recall of certain items inhibits the function of the others as PM cues, but only if the PM task does not largely share its processing with the ongoing task.

Fifteen years of quantitative trait loci studies in fish: challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Ashton, David T; Ritchie, Peter A; Wellenreuther, Maren

2017-03-01

Understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic variation is a major challenge in biology. Here, we systematically evaluate 146 quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies on teleost fish over the last 15 years to investigate (i) temporal trends and (ii) factors affecting QTL detection and fine-mapping. The number of fish QTL studies per year increased over the review period and identified a cumulative number of 3632 putative QTLs. Most studies used linkage-based mapping approaches and were conducted on nonmodel species with limited genomic resources. A gradual and moderate increase in the size of the mapping population and a sharp increase in marker density from 2011 onwards were observed; however, the number of QTLs and variance explained by QTLs changed only minimally over the review period. Based on these findings, we discuss the causative factors and outline how larger sample sizes, phenomics, comparative genomics, epigenetics and software development could improve both the quantity and quality of QTLs in future genotype-phenotype studies. Given that the technical limitations on DNA sequencing have mostly been overcome in recent years, a renewed focus on these and other study design factors will likely lead to significant improvements in QTL studies in the future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospective Memory Impairments in Alzheimer's Disease and Behavioral Variant Frontotemporal Dementia: Clinical and Neural Correlates.

PubMed

Dermody, Nadene; Hornberger, Michael; Piguet, Olivier; Hodges, John R; Irish, Muireann

2016-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) refers to a future-oriented form of memory in which the individual must remember to execute an intended action either at a future point in time (Time-based) or in response to a specific event (Event-based). Lapses in PM are commonly exhibited in neurodegenerative disorders including Alzheimer's disease (AD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD), however, the neurocognitive mechanisms driving these deficits remain unknown. To investigate the clinical and neural correlates of Time- and Event-based PM disruption in AD and the behavioral-variant FTD (bvFTD). Twelve AD, 12 bvFTD, and 12 healthy older Control participants completed a modified version of the Cambridge Prospective Memory test, which examines Time- and Event-based aspects of PM. All participants completed a standard neuropsychological assessment and underwent whole-brain structural MRI. AD and bvFTD patients displayed striking impairments across Time- and Event-based PM relative to Controls, however, Time-based PM was disproportionately affected in the AD group. Episodic memory dysfunction and hippocampal atrophy were found to correlate strongly with PM integrity in both patient groups, however, dissociable neural substrates were also evident for PM performance across dementia syndromes. Our study reveals the multifaceted nature of PM dysfunction in neurodegenerative disorders, and suggests common and dissociable neurocognitive mechanisms, which subtend these deficits in each patient group. Future studies of PM disturbance in dementia syndromes will be crucial for the development of successful interventions to improve functional independence in the patient's daily life.

Concurrent validity of Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory profiles: A secondary analysis of data from the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Worrell, Frank C; McKay, Michael T; Andretta, James R

2015-07-01

This paper examined the association between membership in profiles based on a shortened form of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI-S; McKay, Andretta, McGee, & Worrell, 2014) and other temporal and psychosocial variables. Participants consisted of 1620 adolescents attending high school in Northern Ireland. ZTPI-S scores had correlations with other temporal and psychosocial variables that were similar to those reported for ZTPI scores in previous studies. Four ZTPI-S profiles were identified-Balanced, Past Negative, Present Hedonistic, and Future-and results indicated that these profiles had theoretically meaningful relationships with self-esteem, self-efficacy, aggression, parental attachment, consideration of future consequences, and future temporal focus. Unlike studies of college students where the Balanced profile was related to more adaptive functioning, the Future profile was related to more adaptive functioning. Future studies are needed to establish the generalizability of these profiles and to determine if there are developmental differences in which profiles are more adaptive. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. All rights reserved.

Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

2014-12-01

This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

Space debris removal by ground-based lasers: main conclusions of the European project CLEANSPACE.

PubMed

Esmiller, Bruno; Jacquelard, Christophe; Eckel, Hans-Albert; Wnuk, Edwin

2014-11-01

Studies show that the number of debris in low Earth orbit is exponentially growing despite future debris release mitigation measures considered. Specifically, the already existing population of small and medium debris (between 1 cm and several dozens of cm) is today a concrete threat to operational satellites. A ground-based laser solution which can remove, at low expense and in a nondestructive way, hazardous debris around selected space assets appears as a highly promising answer. This solution is studied within the framework of the CLEANSPACE project which is part of the FP7 space program. The overall CLEANSPACE objective is: to propose an efficient and affordable global system architecture, to tackle safety regulation aspects, political implications and future collaborations, to develop affordable technological bricks, and to establish a roadmap for the development and the future implantation of a fully functional laser protection system. This paper will present the main conclusions of the CLEANSPACE project.

Aerothermodynamic testing requirements for future space transportation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paulson, John W., Jr.; Miller, Charles G., III

1995-01-01

Aerothermodynamics, encompassing aerodynamics, aeroheating, and fluid dynamic and physical processes, is the genesis for the design and development of advanced space transportation vehicles. It provides crucial information to other disciplines involved in the development process such as structures, materials, propulsion, and avionics. Sources of aerothermodynamic information include ground-based facilities, computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and engineering computer codes, and flight experiments. Utilization of this triad is required to provide the optimum requirements while reducing undue design conservatism, risk, and cost. This paper discusses the role of ground-based facilities in the design of future space transportation system concepts. Testing methodology is addressed, including the iterative approach often required for the assessment and optimization of configurations from an aerothermodynamic perspective. The influence of vehicle shape and the transition from parametric studies for optimization to benchmark studies for final design and establishment of the flight data book is discussed. Future aerothermodynamic testing requirements including the need for new facilities are also presented.

Structural dynamics technology research in NASA: Perspective on future needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The perspective of a NASA ad hoc study group on future research needs in structural dynamics within the aerospace industry is presented. The common aspects of the design process across the industry are identified and the role of structural dynamics is established through a discussion of various design considerations having their basis in structural dynamics. The specific structural dynamics issues involved are identified and assessed as to their current technological status and trends. Projections of future requirements based on this assessment are made and areas of research to meet them are identified.

Algorithms for adaptive stochastic control for a class of linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toda, M.; Patel, R. V.

1977-01-01

Control of linear, discrete time, stochastic systems with unknown control gain parameters is discussed. Two suboptimal adaptive control schemes are derived: one is based on underestimating future control and the other is based on overestimating future control. Both schemes require little on-line computation and incorporate in their control laws some information on estimation errors. The performance of these laws is studied by Monte Carlo simulations on a computer. Two single input, third order systems are considered, one stable and the other unstable, and the performance of the two adaptive control schemes is compared with that of the scheme based on enforced certainty equivalence and the scheme where the control gain parameters are known.

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

A Thematic Review of Studies into the Effectiveness of Context-Based Chemistry Curricula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ültay, Neslihan; Çalık, Muammer

2012-12-01

Context-based chemistry education aims at making connections between real life and the scientific content of chemistry courses. The purpose of this study was to evaluate context-based chemistry studies. In looking for the context-based chemistry studies, the authors entered the keywords `context-based', `contextual learning' and `chemistry education' in well-known databases (i.e. Academic Search Complete, Education Research Complete, ERIC, Springer LINK Contemporary). Further, in case the computer search by key words may have missed a rather substantial part of the important literature in the area, the authors also conducted a hand search of the related journals. To present a detailed thematic review of context-based chemistry studies, a matrix was used to summarize the findings by focusing on insights derived from the related studies. The matrix incorporates the following themes: needs, aims, methodologies, general knowledge claims, and implications for teaching and learning, implications for curriculum development and suggestions for future research. The general knowledge claims investigated in this paper were: (a) positive effects of the context-based chemistry studies; (b) caveats, both are examined in terms of students' attitudes and students' understanding/cognition. Implications were investigated for practice in context- based chemistry studies, for future research in context- based chemistry studies, and for curriculum developers in context- based chemistry studies. Teachers of context-based courses claimed that the application of the context-based learning approach in chemistry education improved students' motivation and interest in the subject. This seems to have generated an increase in the number of the students who wish to continue chemistry education at higher levels. However, despite the fact that the majority of the studies have reported advantages of context-based chemistry studies, some of them have also referred to pitfalls, i.e. dominant structure of out-of-school learning, tough nature of some chemistry topics, and teacher anxiety of lower-ability students.

The Power Within: Institution-Based Leadership Development Programs in Rural Community Colleges in Illinois

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sherbini, Jaleh T.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine institution-based leadership development programs in rural community colleges in Illinois, and the impact of these programs in supporting and preparing future community college leaders. The study also explored the efficacy of these programs and whether their implementation aligns with the institutions'…

Mathematics Teacher Education Quality in TEDS-M: Globalizing the Views of Future Teachers and Teacher Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Feng-Jui; Law, Chiu-Keung; Shy, Haw-Yaw; Wang, Ting-Ying; Hsieh, Chia-Jui; Tang, Shu-Jyh

2011-01-01

The Teacher Education and Development Study in Mathematics, sponsored by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement, is the first data-based study about mathematics teacher education with large-scale samples; this article is based on its data but develops a stand-alone conceptual framework to investigate the…

Using Concept-Based Instruction in the L2 Classroom: Perspectives from Current and Future Language Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Lawrence; Abraham, Lee B.; Negueruela-Azarola, Eduardo

2013-01-01

A number of recent studies (see, for example, Lantolf, 2010; Negueruela & Lantolf, 2006; van Compernolle, 2011) have focused on the use of learning tools developed according to the principles of concept-based instruction (CBI). Using videorecorded data from interviews and observations of classroom instruction, our study seeks to contribute to…

Studies of Human Memory and Language Processing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Allan M.

The purposes of this study were to determine the nature of human semantic memory and to obtain knowledge usable in the future development of computer systems that can converse with people. The work was based on a computer model which is designed to comprehend English text, relating the text to information stored in a semantic data base that is…

Lessons learned from a practice-based, multi-site intervention study with nurse participants

PubMed Central

Friese, Christopher R.; Mendelsohn-Victor, Kari; Ginex, Pamela; McMahon, Carol M.; Fauer, Alex J.; McCullagh, Marjorie C.

2016-01-01

Purpose To identify challenges and solutions to the efficient conduct of a multi-site, practice-based randomized controlled trial to improve nurses’ adherence to personal protective equipment use in ambulatory oncology settings. Design The Drug Exposure Feedback and Education for Nurses’ Safety (DEFENS) study is a clustered, randomized, controlled trial. Participating sites are randomized to web-based feedback on hazardous drug exposures in the sites plus tailored messages to address barriers versus a control intervention of a web-based continuing education video. Approach The study principal investigator, the study coordinator, and two site leaders identified challenges to study implementation and potential solutions, plus potential methods to prevent logistical challenges in future studies. Findings Noteworthy challenges included variation in human subjects protection policies, grants and contracts budgeting, infrastructure for nursing-led research, and information technology variation. Successful strategies included scheduled web conferences, site-based study champions, site visits by the principal investigator, and centrally-based document preparation. Strategies to improve efficiency in future studies include early and continued engagement with contract personnel in sites, and proposed changes to the common rule concerning human subjects. The DEFENS study successfully recruited 393 nurses across 12 sites. To date, 369 have completed surveys and 174 nurses have viewed educational materials. Conclusions Multi-site studies of nursing personnel are rare and challenging to existing infrastructure. These barriers can be overcome with strong engagement and planning. Clinical Relevance Leadership engagement, onsite staff support, and continuous communication can facilitate successful recruitment to a workplace-based randomized, controlled behavioral trial. PMID:28098951

Supporting Foreign Language Vocabulary Learning through Kinect-Based Gaming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urun, Mehmet Faith; Aksoy, Hasan; Comez, Rasim

2017-01-01

This study aimed to explore the effectiveness of a Kinect-based game called Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier to investigate possible contributions of game-based learning in a virtual language classroom at a state university in Ankara, Turkey. A quasi-experimental design where the treatment group (N= 26) was subjected to kinect-based…

Section on Supernova Remnants and Cosmic Rays of the White Paper on the Status and Future of Ground-Based Gamma-Ray Astronomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pohl, M.; /Iowa State U.; Abdo, Aous A.

This is a report on the findings of the SNR/cosmic-ray working group for the white paper on the status and future of ground-based gamma-ray astronomy. The white paper is an APS commissioned document, and the overall version has also been released and can be found on astro-ph. This detailed section of the white paper discusses the status of past and current attempts to observe shell-type supernova remnants and diffuse emission from cosmic rays at GeV-TeV energies. We concentrate on the potential of future ground-based gamma-ray experiments to study the acceleration of relativistic charged particles which is one of the mainmore » unsolved, yet fundamental, problems in modern astrophysics. The acceleration of particles relies on interactions between energetic particles and magnetic turbulence. In the case of SNRs we can perform spatially resolved studies in systems with known geometry, and the plasma physics deduced from these observations will help us to understand other systems where rapid particle acceleration is believed to occur and where observations as detailed as those of SNRs are not possible.« less

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Physical Activity Outcomes of Nurse-Delivered Lifestyle Interventions.

PubMed

Richards, Elizabeth A; Cai, Yun

2016-02-01

Promotion of physical activity has been a public health priority for decades. Over two million home healthcare nurses are at the front line to deliver effective health education and health promotion interventions in the United States. The purpose of this systematic review is to examine the effectiveness of nurse-delivered lifestyle physical interventions on physical activity outcomes conducted in home settings. Computerized database and ancestry search strategies located distinct intervention trials between 1990 and 2015. A total of eight quantitative studies were reviewed. Four of the eight studies were randomized control trials and four studies used an uncontrolled pretest-posttest design. The eight studies represented a total of 1,221 participants with mean ages from 43 to 81. Study sample sizes ranged from 16 to 504. Seven of the eight studies demonstrated modest effect of nurse-delivered home-based interventions on physical activity behaviors. Home-based physical activity promotion was most often incorporated into secondary prevention of postacute diseases, chronic disease management, or disease prevention/health promotion. Findings indicate that nurse-delivered home-based physical activity promotion show overall effectiveness in general adult populations. Possible effective intervention domains were also discussed in this review to guide future home-based health promotion. More large randomized controlled trials with longer study/follow-up periods and studies with cost-effectiveness data are warranted in future research.

Constructing an Evidence-Base for Future CALL Design with "Engineering Power": The Need for More Basic Research and Instrumental Replication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Handley, Zöe

2014-01-01

This paper argues that the goal of Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL) research should be to construct a reliable evidence-base with "engineering power" and generality upon which the design of future CALL software and activities can be based. In order to establish such an evidence base for future CALL design, it suggests that CALL…

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

Imagining the Future: Perspectives Among Youth and Caregivers in the Trans Youth Family Study

PubMed Central

Katz-Wise, Sabra L.; Budge, Stephanie L.; Orovecz, Joe J.; Nguyen, Bradford; Nava-Coulter, Brett; Thomson, Katharine

2016-01-01

Future perspectives of transgender youth and their caregivers may be shaped by knowledge of discrimination and adverse mental health among transgender adults. Qualitative data from the Trans Youth Family Study were used to examine how transgender and gender nonconforming (TGN) youth and their caregivers imagine the youth's future. A community-based sample of 16 families (16 TGN youth, ages 7-18 years, and 29 caregivers) was recruited from two regions in the United States. Participants completed in-person qualitative interviews and surveys. Interview transcripts were analyzed using grounded theory methodology for coding procedures. Analyses yielded 104 higher order themes across 45 interviews, with eight prominent themes: comparing experiences with others, gender affirming hormones, gender affirming surgery, gender norms, questioning whether the youth is really transgender, expectations for romantic relationships, uncertainty about the future, and worries about physical and emotional safety. A conceptual model of future perspectives in TGN youth and caregivers is presented and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:28068129

Technology-Based Healthcare for Nursing Education Within The Netherlands: Past, Present and Future.

PubMed

Koster, Ybranda; van Houwelingen, Cornelis T M

2017-01-01

At the present time, nearly all Dutch nursing schools are searching for suitable ways to implement technology-based healthcare in their curriculum. Some Universities chose elective education, others a mandatory solution. Several studies were executed to determine competencies needed by nurses in order to work with technology-based healthcare. In 2016 a nationwide new curriculum for nurses has been published. Providing technology-based healthcare is included under the core competencies of this new curriculum. All baccalaureate nursing educational institutes must implement this new curriculum at the start of 2016 which will have a huge impact on the implementation of technology-based healthcare in the education programs. In the future, technology centers from Universities will collaborate and specialize, partner with technology companies and crossovers between information and communication technology and healthcare education will be expanded.

76 FR 32880 - Further Definition of “Swap,” “Security-Based Swap,” and “Security-Based Swap Agreement”; Mixed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-07

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 1 RIN 3038-AD46 SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE...-Based Swap Agreement Recordkeeping AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission; Securities and Exchange... Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission published a document in the Federal...

Theoretical physics implications of gravitational wave observation with future detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamberlain, Katie; Yunes, Nicolás

2017-10-01

Gravitational waves encode invaluable information about the nature of the relatively unexplored extreme gravity regime, where the gravitational interaction is strong, nonlinear and highly dynamical. Recent gravitational wave observations by advanced LIGO have provided the first glimpses into this regime, allowing for the extraction of new inferences on different aspects of theoretical physics. For example, these detections provide constraints on the mass of the graviton, Lorentz violation in the gravitational sector, the existence of large extra dimensions, the temporal variability of Newton's gravitational constant, and modified dispersion relations of gravitational waves. Many of these constraints, however, are not yet competitive with constraints obtained, for example, through Solar System observations or binary pulsar observations. In this paper, we study the degree to which theoretical physics inferences drawn from gravitational wave observations will strengthen with detections from future detectors. We consider future ground-based detectors, such as the LIGO-class expansions A + , Voyager, Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope, as well as space-based detectors, such as various configurations of eLISA and the recently proposed LISA mission. We find that space-based detectors will place constraints on general relativity up to 12 orders of magnitude more stringently than current aLIGO bounds, but these space-based constraints are comparable to those obtained with the ground-based Cosmic Explorer or the Einstein Telescope (A + and Voyager only lead to modest improvements in constraints). We also generically find that improvements in the instrument sensitivity band at low frequencies lead to large improvements in certain classes of constraints, while sensitivity improvements at high frequencies lead to more modest gains. These results strengthen the case for the development of future detectors, while providing additional information that could be useful in future design decisions.

Analysis of blocking probability for OFDM-based variable bandwidth optical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lei; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongli; Lin, Xuefeng; Wu, Yuyao; Gu, Wanyi

2011-12-01

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) has recently been proposed as a modulation technique. For optical networks, because of its good spectral efficiency, flexibility, and tolerance to impairments, optical OFDM is much more flexible compared to traditional WDM systems, enabling elastic bandwidth transmissions, and optical networking is the future trend of development. In OFDM-based optical network the research of blocking rate has very important significance for network assessment. Current research for WDM network is basically based on a fixed bandwidth, in order to accommodate the future business and the fast-changing development of optical network, our study is based on variable bandwidth OFDM-based optical networks. We apply the mathematical analysis and theoretical derivation, based on the existing theory and algorithms, research blocking probability of the variable bandwidth of optical network, and then we will build a model for blocking probability.

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

2016-01-01

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

2016-05-26

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions.

Emotional distress impacts fear of the future among breast cancer survivors not the reverse.

PubMed

Lebel, Sophie; Rosberger, Zeev; Edgar, Linda; Devins, Gerald M

2009-06-01

Fear of the future is one of the most stressful aspects of having cancer. Research to date has conceptualized fear of the future as a precursor of distress or stress-response symptoms. Yet it is equally plausible that distress would predict increased fear of the future or that they would have a reciprocal influence on each other. The purpose of the present study was to examine the bidirectional relations between fear of the future and distress as well as intrusion and avoidance among breast cancer survivors at 3, 7, 11, and 15 months after diagnosis. We used a bivariate latent difference score model for dynamic change to examine these bidirectional relationships among 146 early-stage breast cancer survivors. Using Lisrel version 8.80, we examined four models testing different hypothesized relationships between fear of the future and distress and intrusion and avoidance. Based on model fit evaluation, our data shows that decreases in distress over time lead to a reduction of fear of the future but that changes in fear do not lead to changes in distress. On the other hand, there is no relationship between changes in fear of the future and intrusion and avoidance over time. Ongoing fear of the future does not appear to be a necessary condition for the development of stress-response symptoms. Future studies need to explore the role of distressing emotions in the development and exacerbation of fear of the future among cancer survivors.

Tactical decision making for selective expansion of operating room resources incorporating financial criteria and uncertainty in subspecialties' future workloads.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes; Wachtel, Ruth E

2005-05-01

We considered the allocation of operating room (OR) time at facilities where the strategic decision had been made to increase the number of ORs. Allocation occurs in two stages: a long-term tactical stage followed by short-term operational stage. Tactical decisions, approximately 1 yr in advance, determine what specialized equipment and expertise will be needed. Tactical decisions are based on estimates of future OR workload for each subspecialty or surgeon. We show that groups of surgeons can be excluded from consideration at this tactical stage (e.g., surgeons who need intensive care beds or those with below average contribution margins per OR hour). Lower and upper limits are estimated for the future demand of OR time by the remaining surgeons. Thus, initial OR allocations can be accomplished with only partial information on future OR workload. Once the new ORs open, operational decision-making based on OR efficiency is used to fill the OR time and adjust staffing. Surgeons who were not allocated additional time at the tactical stage are provided increased OR time through operational adjustments based on their actual workload. In a case study from a tertiary hospital, future demand estimates were needed for only 15% of surgeons, illustrating the practicality of these methods for use in tactical OR allocation decisions.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-11-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Competency-based Radiology Residency: A Survey of Expectations from Singapore's Perspective.

PubMed

Yang, Hui; Tan, Colin J X; Lau, Doreen A H; Lim, Winston E H; Tay, Kiang Hiong; Kei, Pin Lin

2015-03-01

In response to the demands of an ageing nation, the postgraduate medical education in Singapore is currently in the early stage of transition into the American-styled residency programme. This study assessed the expectations of both radiology trainees and faculty on their ideal clinical learning environment (CLE) which facilitates the programme development. A modified 23-item questionnaire was administered to both trainees and faculty at a local training hospital. All items were scored according to their envisioned level of importance and categorised into 5 main CLE domains-supervision, formal training programme, work-based learning, social atmosphere and workload. 'Supervision' was identified as the most important domain of the CLE by both trainees and faculty, followed by 'formal training programmes', 'work-based learning' and 'social atmosphere'. 'Workload' was rated as the least important domain. For all domains, the reported expectation between both trainees and faculty respondents did not differ significantly. Intragroup comparison also showed no significant difference within each group of respondents. This study has provided valuable insights on both respondents' expectations on their ideal CLE that can best train competency in future radiologists. Various approaches to address these concerns were also discussed. The similarities in findings between ours and previous studies suggest that the 'supervision', 'formal training programmes' and 'work-based learning' domains are crucial for the success of a postgraduate medical training and should be emphasised in future curriculum. 'Workload' remains a challenge in postgraduate medical training, but attempts to address this will have an impact in future radiology training.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Changing Health Behaviors to Improve Health Outcomes after Angioplasty: A Randomized Trial of Net Present Value versus Future Value Risk Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlson, M. E.; Peterson, J. C.; Boutin-Foster, C.; Briggs, W. M.; Ogedegbe, G. G.; McCulloch, C. E.; Hollenberg, J.; Wong, C.; Allegrante, J. P.

2008-01-01

Patients who have undergone angioplasty experience difficulty modifying at-risk behaviors for subsequent cardiac events. The purpose of this study was to test whether an innovative approach to framing of risk, based on "net present value" economic theory, would be more effective in behavioral intervention than the standard "future value approach"…

Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models.

PubMed

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Piloting a psycho-social intervention for incarcerated women with trauma histories: lessons learned and future recommendations.

PubMed

Liebman, Rachel E; Burnette, Mandi L; Raimondi, Christina; Nichols-Hadeed, Corey; Merle, Patricia; Cerulli, Catherine

2014-08-01

Trauma and related mental health disorders are common among incarcerated women, but empirically sound mental health interventions are lacking in prisons. Implementing such interventions is fraught with legal and logistical barriers. These barriers can be particularly detrimental for trauma-specific interventions given the unique needs of trauma survivors, yet there is little documentation of these issues or how to address them. This study describes a pilot study of an 8-week, strengths-based, trauma-focused intervention for 26 incarcerated women. Women reported considerable mental health problems and trauma. The study highlights the importance of adapting stringent research methodologies for prison-based trauma interventions. For instance, women with trauma were reluctant to participate in an intervention advertised as trauma-based. Moreover, a randomized wait list control design was unfeasible because women wanted the support of their friends when discussing trauma and could not control their schedules 9 weeks in advance. Ultimately, this work may inform future efforts to implement effective trauma-based interventions behind prison walls. © The Author(s) 2013.

Optimising measurement of health-related characteristics of the built environment: Comparing data collected by foot-based street audits, virtual street audits and routine secondary data sources.

PubMed

Pliakas, Triantafyllos; Hawkesworth, Sophie; Silverwood, Richard J; Nanchahal, Kiran; Grundy, Chris; Armstrong, Ben; Casas, Juan Pablo; Morris, Richard W; Wilkinson, Paul; Lock, Karen

2017-01-01

The role of the neighbourhood environment in influencing health behaviours continues to be an important topic in public health research and policy. Foot-based street audits, virtual street audits and secondary data sources are widespread data collection methods used to objectively measure the built environment in environment-health association studies. We compared these three methods using data collected in a nationally representative epidemiological study in 17 British towns to inform future development of research tools. There was good agreement between foot-based and virtual audit tools. Foot based audits were superior for fine detail features. Secondary data sources measured very different aspects of the local environment that could be used to derive a range of environmental measures if validated properly. Future built environment research should design studies a priori using multiple approaches and varied data sources in order to best capture features that operate on different health behaviours at varying spatial scales. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The future of diabetes education: expanded opportunities and roles for diabetes educators.

PubMed

Martin, Annette Lenzi; Lipman, Ruth D

2013-01-01

The purpose of the article is to explore challenges and opportunities associated with the state of practice for diabetes education and diabetes educators. Observations, assumptions, predictions, and recommendations based on a literature review and the 2011 workforce study and workforce summit held by the American Association of Diabetes Educators (AADE) are presented. Demand for diabetes educators is projected to increase. The employer base will broaden beyond traditional outpatient venues and extend into industry, retail pharmacy clinics, and community-based organizations. Increasing roles in management, quality assurance, and technology interface design are possible for diabetes educators. Challenges limiting diabetes education such as poor understanding of what diabetes educators do and underutilization of diabetes education continue to need redress. Increasing utilization of diabetes education and insight about health care trends can allow diabetes educators to thrive in the workplace of the future. Diabetes educators are urged to promote the evidence concerning the benefits of diabetes education, to work to increase physician referrals, and to acquire needed competencies for the workplace of the future.

Systematic Review of Economic Models Used to Compare Techniques for Detecting Peripheral Arterial Disease.

PubMed

Moloney, Eoin; O'Connor, Joanne; Craig, Dawn; Robalino, Shannon; Chrysos, Alexandros; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Sims, Andrew; Stansby, Gerard; Wilkes, Scott; Allen, John

2018-04-23

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common condition, in which atherosclerotic narrowing in the arteries restricts blood supply to the leg muscles. In order to support future model-based economic evaluations comparing methods of diagnosis in this area, a systematic review of economic modelling studies was conducted. A systematic literature review was performed in June 2017 to identify model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic tests to detect PAD, with six individual databases searched. The review was conducted in accordance with the methods outlined in the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination's guidance for undertaking reviews in healthcare, and appropriate inclusion criteria were applied. Relevant data were extracted, and studies were quality assessed. Seven studies were included in the final review, all of which were published between 1995 and 2014. There was wide variation in the types of diagnostic test compared. The majority of the studies (six of seven) referenced the sources used to develop their model, and all studies stated and justified the structural assumptions. Reporting of the data within the included studies could have been improved. Only one identified study focused on the cost-effectiveness of a test typically used in primary care. This review brings together all applied modelling methods for tests used in the diagnosis of PAD, which could be used to support future model-based economic evaluations in this field. The limited modelling work available on tests typically used for the detection of PAD in primary care, in particular, highlights the importance of future work in this area.

Intended location of future career practice among graduating medical students: perspective from social cognitive career theory in Nepal.

PubMed

Sapkota, B P; Amatya, A

2013-09-01

Medical workforce shortages and mal-distributions world-wide make understanding how, where and what our future doctors wish to practice is increasingly important. Understanding of factors such as available infrastructure, provision of incentives and many others influences the decisions of doctors to leave or to stay. Therefore the strategies effective for retention, is imperative in conducting the study based on a sound theoretical framework in predicting future medical workforce needs. The study used the theoretical framework of Social Cognitive Career Theory to identify the predictors on future practice location. The study was cross-sectional descriptive in design targeting the Nepalese medical students in the final year and doing internships in Nepal. Anonymous self administered questionnaire was distributed among 480 students but 393 students were involved due to non response and incompleteness. Findings of the study were presented in frequency tables for univariate descriptive analysis and bivariate findings were presented by cross tabulation. About two thirds 259 (65.9%) of the participants had chosen within country location for future practice. Among those who had chosen within country choice, about an equal percentage of the respondents had chosen rural 131 (50.8%) and urban 128 (49.2%) location. Among those who had chosen within country for future practice location, less than one fifth of the participants had chosen private sector for future practice. Majority of the medical graduates wish to practice within country location. Most of which chose public sector for future practice. None of the SCCT construct had any significant association within country location.

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

Subject preferences of first- and second-year medical students for their future specialization at Chitwan Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Chitwan, Nepal - a questionnaire-based study.

PubMed

Jha, Rajesh K; Paudel, Keshab R; Shah, Dev K; Sah, Ajit K; Basnet, Sangharshila; Sah, Phoolgen; Adhikari, Sandeep

2015-01-01

The selection of a discipline for future specialization may be an important factor for the medical students' future career, and it is influenced by multiple factors. The interest of students in the early stages can be improved in subjects related to public health or of academic importance, as per need. A questionnaire-based study was conducted among 265 first- and second-year medical students of Chitwan Medical College, Nepal to find out their subject of preference for postgraduation and the factors affecting their selection along with their interesting basic science subject. Only the responses from 232 completely filled questionnaires were analyzed. The preference of the students for clinical surgical (50.9%), clinical medical (45.3%), and basic medical (3.9%) sciences for postgraduation were in descending order. The most preferred specialty among male students was clinical surgical sciences (56.3%), and among female students, it was clinical medical sciences (53.6%). Although all the students responded to their preferred specialty, only 178 students specified the subject of their interest. General surgery (23.4%), pediatrics (23.4%), and anatomy (2.4%) were the most favored subjects for postgraduation among clinical surgical, clinical medical, and basic medical sciences specialties, respectively. More common reasons for selection of specific subject for future career were found to be: personal interests, good income, intellectual challenge, and others. Many students preferred clinical surgical sciences for their future specialization. Among the reasons for the selection of the specialty for postgraduation, no significant reason could be elicited from the present study.

Exploring barriers and opportunities in adopting crowdsourcing based new product development in manufacturing SMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Shengfeng; Van der Velde, David; Chatzakis, Emmanouil; McStea, Terry; Smith, Neil

2016-10-01

Crowdsourcing is an innovative business practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content or even funds by soliciting contributions from a large group of people (the `Crowd'). The potential benefits of utilizing crowdsourcing in product design are well-documented, but little research exists on what are the barriers and opportunities in adopting crowdsourcing in new product development (NPD) of manufacturing SMEs. In order to answer the above questions, a Proof of Market study is carried out on crowdsourcing-based product design under an Innovate UK funded Smart project, which aims at identifying the needs, challenges and future development opportunities associated with adopting crowdsourcing strategies for NPD. The research findings from this study are reported here and can be used to guide future development of crowdsourcing-based collaborative design methods and tools and provide some practical references for industry to adopt this new and emerging collaborative design method in their business.

Policy Options for Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Application in Healthcare; a Prospective View

PubMed Central

van Oranje-Nassau, Constantijn; Schindler, Helen Rebecca; Vilamovska, Anna-Marie; Botterman, Maarten

2012-01-01

Abstract This article reviews the state of play of European markets and applications of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology in healthcare in Europe. Based on the current situation the study presents three scenarios for 2020, to describe futures in which the technology and health care sectors develop in different ways. The scenarios were discussed in expert workshops to derive issues that need to be addressed by future policies of the European Union and other stakeholders. The market assessment is based on a review of literature and an analysis of proprietary market data. The information on the state of RFID applications in Health in Europe summarises the results of a literature review, an online Delphi survey, expert interviews and seven cases studies in Europe and the US. The policy analysis is based on the outcomes of a scenario gaming workshop with experts from academia, industry, healthcare providers, policymakers and representatives of patient organisations. PMID:28083212

AICUZ (Air Installation Compatible Use Zone) report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-09-01

The development and use of lands near U.S. Air Force base is of continuing concern to Air Force officials. It is recognized that the public must be protected from noise and other hazards of air base operations. At the same time it is recognized that lands near air bases often are highly attractive areas for development. Aircraft operations are likely to continue from Mather AFB for the indefinite future. Operations will include the T-37, T-43, B-52, KC-135 or replacement aircraft. The types of aircraft, flight tracks, frequency, and other characteristics will be continuously evaluated by Mather AFB to determine the effects on the AICUZ and the community. The AICUZ study was prepared to promote orderly and compatible land use around Mather AFB. Land use guidelines and noise measurement techniques are based on recent technology. Data from this study should be considered for incorporation into existing land use plans and ordinances of surrounding communities, and used as a basis for decisions on future land development requests.

Towards collaborative filtering recommender systems for tailored health communications.

PubMed

Marlin, Benjamin M; Adams, Roy J; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient "profiles" and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user's past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy.

Towards Collaborative Filtering Recommender Systems for Tailored Health Communications

PubMed Central

Marlin, Benjamin M.; Adams, Roy J.; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K.

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient “profiles” and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user’s past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy. PMID:24551430

Attitudes of pharmacy and nutrition students towards team-based care after first exposure to interprofessional education in Qatar.

PubMed

Wilby, Kyle John; Al-Abdi, Tamara; Hassan, Abdelmonem; Brown, Marian Amanda; Paravattil, Bridget; Khalifa, Sherief Ibrahim

2015-01-01

Little is known regarding attitudes of healthcare professional students towards team-based care in the Middle East. As modernization of health systems is rapidly occurring across the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, it is important for students to engage in interprofessional education (IPE) activities. The objective of this study was to assess pre-clinical students' attitudes towards interprofessional healthcare teams after completion of their first IPE activity. A previously validated questionnaire was distributed to 25 pharmacy and 17 nutrition students at Qatar University after participation in an IPE event. Questions related to quality of team-based care and physician centricity. Results showed high agreement regarding high quality care provided by teams yet students were unsure of the value of team-based care when considering required time for implementation. Results provide baseline data for future studies to assess student attitudes throughout the professional programs and give valuable insight for future IPE program design in the Middle East.

High Resolution Mass Spectrometry for future space instrumentation : current development within the French Space Orbitrap Consortium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briois, Christelle; Lebreton, Jean-Pierre; Szopa, Cyril; Thirkell, Laurent; Aradj, Kenzi; Bouabdellah, Abdel; Boukrara, Amirouche; Carrasco, Nathalie; Chalumeau, Gilles; Chapelon, Olivier; Colin, Fabrice; Cottin, Hervé; Engrand, Cécile; Grand, Noel; Kukui, Alexandre; Pennanech, Cyril; Thissen, Roland; Vuitton, Véronique; Zapf, Pascal; Makarov, Alexander

2014-05-01

Mass spectrometry has been used for years in space exploration to characterise the chemical composition of solar system bodies and their environment. Because of the harsh constraints imposed to the space probe instruments, their mass resolution is quite limited compared to laboratory instruments, sometimes leading to significant limitations in the treatment of the data collected with this type of instrumentation. Future in situ solar system exploration missions would significantly benefit from High Resolution Mass Spectrometry (HRMS). For a few years, 5 French laboratories (LPC2E, IPAG, LATMOS, LISA, CSNSM) involved in the chemical investigation of solar system bodies formed a Consortium to develop HRMS for future space exploration, based on the use of the Orbitrap technology (C. Briois et al., 2014, to be submitted). This development is carried out in the frame of a Research and Technology (R&T) development programme partly funded by the French Space Agency (CNES). The work is undertaken in close collaboration with the Thermo Fisher Scientific Company, which commercialises Orbitrap-based laboratory instruments. The R&T activities are currently concentrating on the core elements of the Orbitrap analyser that are required to reach a sufficient maturity level for allowing design studies of future space instruments. We are indeed pursuing, within international collaborations, the definition of several instrument concepts based on the core elements that are subject of our R&T programme. In this talk, we briefly discuss science applications for future orbitrap-based HRMS space instruments. We highlight present results of our R&T programme.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Mineral resource potential map of the Bighorn Mountains Wilderness Study Area (CDCA-217), San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Rodriguez, Eduardo A.; Obi, Curtis M.; Powell, Robert E.; Hinkle, Margaret E.; Griscom, Andrew; Sabine, Charles; Cwick, Gary J.

1982-01-01

Geological, geochemical, and geophysical evidence, together with a review of historical mining and prospecting activities, suggests that most of the Bighorn Mountains Wilderness Study Area has low potential for the discovery of all types of mineral and energy resources-including precious and base metals, building stone and aggregate, fossil fuels, radioactive-mineral resources, and geothermal resources. Low-grade mineralization has been documented in one small area near Rattlesnake Canyon, and this area has low to moderate potential for future small-scale exploration and development of precious and base metals. Thorium and uranium enrichment have been documented in two small areas in the eastern part of the wilderness study area; these two areas have low to moderate potential for future small-scale exploration and development of radioactive-mineral resources.

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps.

Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabi, A.

2015-12-01

ackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

First Stages of Adult Students' Relationship to Scientific Knowing and Research in the Open University's Web-Based Methodology Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isosomppi, Leena; Maunula, Minna

2016-01-01

The adult students who participate in the web-based studies of the open university have in many ways heterogeneous starting points for studying and learning, for example, the educational backgrounds, the acquired work experience, the general academic skills and the objectives of the future can vary considerably. The adult students striving from…

The Role of Project-Based Learning in IT: A Case Study in a Game Development and Entrepreneurship Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hogue, Andrew; Kapralos, Bill; Desjardins, Francois

2011-01-01

Purpose: Problem/project-based-learning (PBL) approaches have traditionally been shown to be effective for learning within many professional programs that are directly related to the students' future career. The PBL approach has been adopted for over four decades in such fields as medicine and engineering and studies have demonstrated that…

Metaphoric Cartography as Dual-Layered Practitioner Inquiry: Arts-Based Educational Research in the Construction of Place

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertling, Joy G.

2017-01-01

As place is intimately tied to students' lived experiences, investigations into place can illuminate knowledge of students, schools, and communities and serve as inspiration for future place-based curricular endeavors. This study, through a dual-layered, arts-based educational research (ABER) design, offered student teachers the opportunity to…

Factors influencing medical students' choice of future specialization in medical sciences: a cross-sectional questionnaire survey from medical schools in china, malaysia and regions of South asian association for regional cooperation.

PubMed

Kumar, Arun; Mitra, Kasturi; Nagarajan, Sangeetha; Poudel, Bibek

2014-03-01

In future, increase in the number of healthcare professionals is dependent on the career interest among present undergraduate medical students. Based on their interest to pursue their specialty, the availability of medical doctors in each specialty could be done. This study was to find out future career interest and factors that influence undergraduate medical students to choose their future specialization. The study was carried out among first-year medical students from five countries. The students were asked to complete an 8-item questionnaire. Two thousand one hundred fifty three participants were enrolled in the study. Data were analyzed in Microsoft-Excel and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Of the 2153 participants, only 1470 responded. Among the 1470 participants, 169 participants were excluded due to the ambiguity in responses, finally making it to 1301participants. Among them, Anatomy (49.3%) followed by Biochemistry (26.7%) and Physiology (24%) were the most preferred subjects. Anatomy was the most preferred basic science subject among the other subjects and the students were interested to pursuing surgery in future. Furthermore, the most preferred future specialties were surgery, internal medicine and pediatrics with gender variations; males preferring surgery and females in obstetrics and gynecology.

The cognitive bases of the development of past and future episodic cognition in preschoolers.

PubMed

Ünal, Gülten; Hohenberger, Annette

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to use a minimalist framework to examine the joint development of past and future episodic cognition and their underlying cognitive abilities in 3- to 5-year-old Turkish preschoolers. Participants engaged in two main tasks, a what-where-when (www) task to measure episodic memory and a future prediction task to measure episodic future thinking. Three additional tasks were used for predicting children's performance in the two main tasks: a temporal language task, an executive function task, and a spatial working memory task. Results indicated that past and future episodic tasks were significantly correlated with each other even after controlling for age. Hierarchical multiple regressions showed that, after controlling for age, the www task was predicted by executive functions, possibly supporting binding of episodic information and by linguistic abilities. The future prediction task was predicted by linguistic abilities alone, underlining the importance of language for episodic past and future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thinking about the future as a way to succeed in the present: a longitudinal study of future orientation and violent behaviors among African American youth.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bauermeister, José A

2011-12-01

Previous research has linked higher levels of hopelessness about one's future to violent behavior during adolescence; however, little is known about this relationship over time for adolescents. Using growth curve modeling, we tested the association between future orientation and violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of African American youth (n = 681). Variation based on demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, SES, previous violence) was explored. At baseline, differences in violent behavior varied by demographic characteristics. Overall, violent behavior decreased with age. Higher levels of future orientation were associated with greater decreases in violent behavior over time. Demographic characteristics were not associated with change in violent behavior overtime. Our findings suggest that future orientation can act as a promotive factor for at risk African American youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in violence prevention efforts.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

75 FR 8682 - Sunshine Act Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-25

... futures and options in the precious and base metals markets, and to consider Federal position limits in... precious and base metals markets and related hedge exemptions on regulated futures exchanges, derivatives... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Sunshine Act Meetings Agency Holding the Meeting: Commodity...

Innovating Professional Development for Future Health Care Practitioners.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, Charlene; Rucinski, Ann; Schakelman, Justin

2001-01-01

Describes a Web-based professional development curriculum that was designed at the University of Delaware for the internship portion of the Registered Dieticians program. Topics include distance learning; technology integration; combining in-class with online instruction; multimedia use for problem-based learning case studies; course management…

Patient Similarity in Prediction Models Based on Health Data: A Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Sharafoddini, Anis; Dubin, Joel A

2017-01-01

Background Physicians and health policy makers are required to make predictions during their decision making in various medical problems. Many advances have been made in predictive modeling toward outcome prediction, but these innovations target an average patient and are insufficiently adjustable for individual patients. One developing idea in this field is individualized predictive analytics based on patient similarity. The goal of this approach is to identify patients who are similar to an index patient and derive insights from the records of similar patients to provide personalized predictions.. Objective The aim is to summarize and review published studies describing computer-based approaches for predicting patients’ future health status based on health data and patient similarity, identify gaps, and provide a starting point for related future research. Methods The method involved (1) conducting the review by performing automated searches in Scopus, PubMed, and ISI Web of Science, selecting relevant studies by first screening titles and abstracts then analyzing full-texts, and (2) documenting by extracting publication details and information on context, predictors, missing data, modeling algorithm, outcome, and evaluation methods into a matrix table, synthesizing data, and reporting results. Results After duplicate removal, 1339 articles were screened in abstracts and titles and 67 were selected for full-text review. In total, 22 articles met the inclusion criteria. Within included articles, hospitals were the main source of data (n=10). Cardiovascular disease (n=7) and diabetes (n=4) were the dominant patient diseases. Most studies (n=18) used neighborhood-based approaches in devising prediction models. Two studies showed that patient similarity-based modeling outperformed population-based predictive methods. Conclusions Interest in patient similarity-based predictive modeling for diagnosis and prognosis has been growing. In addition to raw/coded health data, wavelet transform and term frequency-inverse document frequency methods were employed to extract predictors. Selecting predictors with potential to highlight special cases and defining new patient similarity metrics were among the gaps identified in the existing literature that provide starting points for future work. Patient status prediction models based on patient similarity and health data offer exciting potential for personalizing and ultimately improving health care, leading to better patient outcomes. PMID:28258046

A Systematic Review on the Designs of Clinical Technology: Findings and Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

PhD, Greg Alexander; Staggers, Nancy

2010-01-01

Human factors (HF) studies are increasingly important as technology infuses into clinical settings. No nursing research reviews exist in this area. The authors conducted a systematic review on designs of clinical technology, 34 articles with 50 studies met inclusion criteria. Findings were classified into three categories based on HF research goals. The majority of studies evaluated effectiveness of clinical design; efficiency was fewest. Current research ranges across many interface types examined with no apparent pattern or obvious rationale. Future research should expand types, settings, participants; integrate displays; and expand outcome variables. PMID:19707093

Future exploration of Venus (post-Pioneer Venus 1978)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colin, L.; Evans, L. C.; Greeley, R.; Quaide, W. L.; Schaupp, R. W.; Seiff, A.; Young, R. E.

1976-01-01

A comprehensive study was performed to determine the major scientific unknowns about the planet Venus to be expected in the post-Pioneer Venus 1978 time frame. Based on those results the desirability of future orbiters, atmospheric entry probes, balloons, and landers as vehicles to address the remaining scientific questions were studied. The recommended mission scenario includes a high resolution surface mapping radar orbiter mission for the 1981 launch opportunity, a multiple-lander mission for 1985 and either an atmospheric entry probe or balloon mission in 1988. All the proposed missions can be performed using proposed space shuttle upper stage boosters. Significant amounts of long-lead time supporting research and technology developments are required to be initiated in the near future to permit the recommended launch dates.

Fundamentals and clinical perspective of urethral sphincter instability as a contributing factor in patients with lower urinary tract dysfunction--ICI-RS 2014.

PubMed

Kirschner-Hermanns, Ruth; Anding, Ralf; Rosier, Peter; Birder, Lori; Andersson, Karl Erik; Djurhuus, Jens Christian

2016-02-01

Urethral pathophysiology is often neglected in discussions of bladder dysfunction. It has been debated whether "urethral sphincter instability," referred to based on observed "urethral pressure variations," is an important aspect of overactive bladder syndrome (OAB). The purpose of this report is to summarize current urethral pathophysiology evidence and outline directions for future research based on a literature review and discussions during the ICI-RS meeting in Bristol in 2014. Urethral pathophysiology with a focus on urethral pressure variation (UPV) was presented and discussed in a multidisciplinary think tank session at the ICI_R meeting in Bristol 2014. This think tank session was based on collaboration between physicians and basic science researchers. Experimental animal studies or studies performed in clinical series (predominantly symptomatic women) provided insights into UPV, but the findings were inconsistent and incomplete. However, UPV is certainly associated with lower urinary tract symptoms (likely OAB), and thus, future research on this topic is relevant. Future research based on adequately defined clinical (and urodynamic) parameters with precisely defined patient groups might shed better light on the cause of OAB symptoms. Further fundamental investigation of urethral epithelial-neural interactions via the release of mediators should enhance our knowledge and improve the management of patients with OAB. © 2016 The Authors. Neurourology and Urodynamics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Species distribution modeling based on the automated identification of citizen observations.

PubMed

Botella, Christophe; Joly, Alexis; Bonnet, Pierre; Monestiez, Pascal; Munoz, François

2018-02-01

A species distribution model computed with automatically identified plant observations was developed and evaluated to contribute to future ecological studies. We used deep learning techniques to automatically identify opportunistic plant observations made by citizens through a popular mobile application. We compared species distribution modeling of invasive alien plants based on these data to inventories made by experts. The trained models have a reasonable predictive effectiveness for some species, but they are biased by the massive presence of cultivated specimens. The method proposed here allows for fine-grained and regular monitoring of some species of interest based on opportunistic observations. More in-depth investigation of the typology of the observations and the sampling bias should help improve the approach in the future.

Predicted and tested performance of durable TPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shideler, John L.

1992-01-01

The development of thermal protection systems (TPS) for aerospace vehicles involves combining material selection, concept design, and verification tests to evaluate the effectiveness of the system. The present paper reviews verification tests of two metallic and one carbon-carbon thermal protection system. The test conditions are, in general, representative of Space Shuttle design flight conditions which may be more or less severe than conditions required for future space transportation systems. The results of this study are intended to help establish a preliminary data base from which the designers of future entry vehicles can evaluate the applicability of future concepts to their vehicles.

Lunar lander stage requirements based on the Civil Needs Data Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulqueen, John A.

1992-01-01

This paper examines the lunar lander stages that will be necessary for the future exploration and development of the Moon. Lunar lander stage sizing is discussed based on the projected lunar payloads listed in the Civil Needs Data Base. Factors that will influence the lander stage design are identified and discussed. Some of these factors are (1) lunar orbiting and lunar surface lander bases; (2) implications of direct landing trajectories and landing from a parking orbit; (3) implications of landing site and parking orbit; (4) implications of landing site and parking orbit selection; (5) the use of expendable and reusable lander stages; and (6) the descent/ascent trajectories. Data relating the lunar lander stage design requirements to each of the above factors and others are presented in parametric form. These data will provide useful design data that will be applicable to future mission model modifications and design studies.

Marine Hydrokinetic Resource Assessment for Domestic Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robichaud, Robi J; Ingram, Michael

NREL/DOE undertook a study for the US Army, Coast Guard and Air Force to investigate the potential for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices to meet the energy load at coastal bases in the future as MHK technology evolves. A wide range of data from tidal and wave, environmental, shipping, etc. databases were used to screen the DOD bases. A series of scoring algorithms were developed to facilitate site review to lead to eventual down select for more detailed, site specific bathymetric tidal resource evaluation. The Army's Camp Edwards, MA and the Coast Guard's Training Center Cape May, NJ (TRACEN Cape May)more » were selected and the Georgia Institute of Technology performed the analyses. An NREL/DOE MHK team visited the bases to further discuss with the base personnel MHK technology's potential for providing power to the bases in the future and frame the potential impact to existing power systems.« less

NEUTRINOS OSCILLATIONS WITH LONG-BASE-LINE BEAMS:. Past, Present and very near Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanco, L.

2011-03-01

We overview the status of the studies on neutrino oscillations with accelerators at the present running experiments. Past and present results enlighten the path towards the observation of massive neutrinos and the settling of their oscillations. The very near future may still have addiction from the outcome of the on-going experiments. OPERA is chosen as a relevant example justified by the very recent results released.

Characterization of Structure and Damage in Materials in Four Dimensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, I. M.; Schuh, C. A.; Vetrano, J. S.

2010-09-30

The materials characterization toolbox has recently experienced a number of parallel revolutionary advances, foreshadowing a time in the near future when materials scientists can quantify material structure across orders of magnitude in length and time scales (i.e., in four dimensions) completely. This paper presents a viewpoint on the materials characterization field, reviewing its recent past, evaluating its present capabilities, and proposing directions for its future development. Electron microscopy; atom-probe tomography; X-ray, neutron and electron tomography; serial sectioning tomography; and diffraction-based analysis methods are reviewed, and opportunities for their future development are highlighted. Particular attention is paid to studies that havemore » pioneered the synergetic use of multiple techniques to provide complementary views of a single structure or process; several of these studies represent the state-of-the-art in characterization, and suggest a trajectory for the continued development of the field. Based on this review, a set of grand challenges for characterization science is identified, including suggestions for instrumentation advances, scientific problems in microstructure analysis, and complex structure evolution problems involving materials damage. The future of microstructural characterization is proposed to be one not only where individual techniques are pushed to their limits, but where the community devises strategies of technique synergy to address complex multiscale problems in materials science and engineering.« less

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Silent Brain Infarction and Risk of Future Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ajay; Giambrone, Ashley E.; Gialdini, Gino; Finn, Caitlin; Delgado, Diana; Gutierrez, Jose; Wright, Clinton; Beiser, Alexa S.; Seshadri, Sudha; Pandya, Ankur; Kamel, Hooman

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Silent brain infarction (SBI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been proposed as a subclinical risk marker for future symptomatic stroke. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between MRI-defined SBI and future stroke risk. Methods We searched the medical literature to identify cohort studies involving adults with MRI detection of SBI who were subsequently followed for incident clinically-defined stroke. Study data and quality assessment were recorded in duplicate with disagreements in data extraction resolved by a third reader. Strength association between MRI detected SBI and future symptomatic stroke measured by a hazard ratio (HR). Results The meta-analysis included 13 studies (14,764 subjects) with a mean follow-up ranging from 25.7 to 174 months. SBI predicted the occurrence of stroke with a random effects crude relative risk of 2.94 (95% CI 2.24–3.86, P<0.001; Q=39.65, P<0.001). In the eight studies of 10,427 subjects providing HR adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, SBI was an independent predictor of incident stroke (HR 2.08 [95% CI 1.69–2.56, P<0.001]; Q=8.99, P=0.25). In a subgroup analysis pooling 9,483 stroke-free individuals from large population-based studies, SBI was present in ~18% of participants and remained a strong predictor of future stroke (HR 2.06 [95% CI 1.64–2.59], p<0.01). Conclusions SBI is present in approximately one in five stroke-free older adults and is associated with a 2-fold increased risk of future stroke. Future studies of in-depth stroke risk evaluations and intensive prevention measures are warranted in patients with clinically unrecognized radiologically evident brain infarctions. PMID:26888534

How lay people respond to messages about genetics, health, and race.

PubMed

Condit, C; Bates, B

2005-08-01

There is a growing movement in medical genetics to develop, implement, and promote a model of race-based medicine. Although race-based medicine may become a widely disseminated standard of care, messages that advocate race-based selection for diagnosing, screening and prescribing drugs may exacerbate health disparities. These messages are present in clinical genetic counseling sessions, mass media, and everyday talk. Messages promoting linkages among genes, race, and health and messages emphasizing genetic causation may promote both general racism and genetically based racism. This mini-review examines research in three areas: studies that address the effects of these messages about genetics on levels of genetic determinism and genetic discrimination; studies that address the effects of these messages on attitudes about race; and, studies of the impacts of race-specific genetic messages on recipients. Following an integration of this research, this mini-review suggests that the current literature appears fragmented because of methodological and measurement issues and offers strategies for future research. Finally, the authors offer a path model to help organize future research examining the effects of messages about genetics on socioculturally based racism, genetically based racism, and unaccounted for racism. Research in this area is needed to understand and mitigate the negative attitudinal effects of messages that link genes, race, and health and/or emphasize genetic causation.

Simulation of the ground-water flow system at Naval Submarine Base Bangor and vicinity, Kitsap County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heeswijk, Marijke van; Smith, Daniel T.

2002-01-01

An evaluation of the interaction between ground-water flow on Naval Submarine Base Bangor and the regional-flow system shows that for selected alternatives of future ground-water pumping on and near the base, the risk is low that significant concentrations of on-base ground-water contamination will reach off-base public-supply wells and hypothetical wells southwest of the base. The risk is low even if worst-case conditions are considered ? no containment and remediation of on-base contamination. The evaluation also shows that future saltwater encroachment of aquifers below sea level may be possible, but this determination has considerable uncertainty associated with it. The potential effects on the ground-water flow system resulting from four hypothetical ground-water pumping alternatives were considered, including no change in 1995 pumping rates, doubling the rates, and 2020 rates estimated from population projections with two different pumping distributions. All but a continuation of 1995 pumping rates demonstrate the possibility of future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The amount of time it would take for encroachment to occur is unknown. For all pumping alternatives, future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer also may be possible along Puget Sound east and southeast of the base. Future saltwater encroachment in the Deep aquifer also may be possible throughout large parts of the study area. Projections of saltwater encroachment are least certain outside the boundaries of Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The potential effects of the ground-water pumping alternatives were evaluated by simulating the ground-water flow system with a three-dimensional uniform-density ground-water flow model. The model was calibrated by trial-and-error by minimizing differences between simulated and measured or estimated variables. These included water levels from prior to January 17, 1977 (termed 'predevelopment'), water-level drawdowns since predevelopment until April 15, 1995, ground-water discharge to streams in water year 1995, and residence times of ground water in different parts of the flow system that were estimated in a separate but related study. Large amounts of ground water were pumped from 1977 through 1980 from the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor to enable the construction of an off-shore drydock. Records of the flow-system responses to the applied stresses were used to help calibrate the model. Errors in the calibrated model were significant. The poor agreement between simulated and measured values could be improved by making many local changes to hydraulic parameters but these changes were not supported by other data. Model errors may have resulted in errors in the simulated effects of ground-water pumping alternatives.

Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-06-01

The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

2015-04-01

Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.

1992-01-01

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Research on environmental impact of water-based fire extinguishing agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuai

2018-02-01

This paper offers current status of application of water-based fire extinguishing agents, the environmental and research considerations of the need for the study of toxicity research. This paper also offers systematic review of test methods of toxicity and environmental impact of water-based fire extinguishing agents currently available, illustrate the main requirements and relevant test methods, and offer some research findings for future research considerations. The paper also offers limitations of current study.

Metamaterials-based enhanced energy harvesting: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Bin; Yang, Yongmin; Cheng, Congcong

2014-04-01

Advances in low power design open the possibility to harvest ambient energies to power directly the electronics or recharge a secondary battery. The key parameter of an energy harvesting (EH) device is its efficiency, which strongly depends on the conversion medium. To address this issue, metamaterials, artificial materials and structures with exotic properties, have been introduced for EH in recent years. They possess unique properties not easily achieved using naturally occurring materials, such as negative stiffness, mass, Poisson's ratio, and refractive index. The goal of this paper is to review the fundamentals, recent progresses and future directions in the field of metamaterials-based enhanced energy harvesting. An introduction on EH followed by the classification of potential metamaterials for EH is presented. A number of theoretical and experimental studies on metamaterials-based EH are outlined, including phononic crystals, acoustic metamaterials, and electromagnetic metamaterials. Finally, we give an outlook on future directions of metamaterials-based energy harvesting research including but not limited to active metamaterials-based EH, metamaterials-based thermal EH, and metamaterials-based multifunctional EH capabilities.

Depression and prospection.

PubMed

Roepke, Ann Marie; Seligman, Martin E P

2016-03-01

Prospection, the mental representation of possible futures, is usually adaptive. When it goes awry, however, it disrupts emotion and motivation. A negative view of the future is typically seen as one symptom of depression, but we suggest that such negative prospection is the core causal element of depression. Here, we describe the empirical evidence supporting this framework, and we explore the implications for clinical interventions. We integrate several literatures: Using the database PsycInfo, we retrieved empirical studies with the keywords prospection, prediction, expectation, pessimism, mental simulation, future-thinking, future-directed thinking, foresight, and/or mental time travel, in conjunction with depression, depressed, or depressive. Three kinds of faulty prospection, taken together, could drive depression: Poor generation of possible futures, poor evaluation of possible futures, and negative beliefs about the future. Depressed mood and poor functioning, in turn, may maintain faulty prospection and feed a vicious cycle. Future-oriented treatment strategies drawn from cognitive-behavioural therapy help to fix poor prospection, and they deserve to be developed further. Prospection-based techniques may lead to transdiagnostic treatment strategies for depression and other disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Standards-Based External Exams and Students' Science-Related Career Expectations: An International Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Seong Won

2016-01-01

Students' science-related career expectations are important for predicting their future science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM)-related educational and occupational attainments. This study examines the degree to which standards-based external examinations are associated with a student's propensity for pursuing science-related…

Place-Based Environmental Education in the Ontario Secondary School Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mnyusiwalla, Laila; Bardecki, Michal

2017-01-01

This study reviews the Ontario secondary school curriculum in light of recommendations made by the 2007 Bondar Report, "Shaping Our Schools, Shaping Our Future." It analyzes curriculum expectations and enrollment data for the purpose of reporting upon and providing recommendations for place-based environmental education. The extent and…

The Role of a Caring-Based Intervention in a Physical Activity Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newton, Maria; Watson, Doris L.; Gano-Overway, Lori; Fry, Mary; Kim, Mi-Sook; Magyar, Michelle

2007-01-01

This preliminary study examined the effect of a caring-based versus a traditionally-focused physical activity intervention on underserved adolescents' perceptions of the caring climate, the motivational climate, empathetic concern, enjoyment, and future anticipated participation. Multiethnic youth (N = 353) aged 9 to 17 involved in two National…

Racial Labor Market Gaps: The Role of Abilities and Schooling Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urzua, Sergio

2008-01-01

This paper studies the relationship between abilities, schooling choices, and black-white differentials in labor market outcomes. The analysis is based on a model of endogenous schooling choices. Agents' schooling decisions are based on expected future earnings, family background, and unobserved abilities. Earnings are also determined by…

Discipline-Based Education Research: Understanding and Improving Learning in Undergraduate Science and Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singer, Susan R.; Nielsen, Natalie R.; Schweingruber, Heidi A.

2012-01-01

The National Science Foundation funded a synthesis study on the status, contributions, and future direction of discipline-based education research (DBER) in physics, biological sciences, geosciences, and chemistry. DBER combines knowledge of teaching and learning with deep knowledge of discipline-specific science content. It describes the…

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-01-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals’ time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying “I don’t know” item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research. PMID:28781381

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Reverters from PD-MCI to cognitively intact are at risk for future cognitive impairment: Analysis of the PPMI cohort.

PubMed

Jones, Jacob D; Kuhn, Taylor P; Szymkowicz, Sarah M

2018-02-01

Past studies have shown that a large portion of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will revert to a cognitively intact (CI) status in the future. Aging studies have shown that individuals who revert from MCI to CI are at increased risk for reconverting to MCI or dementia in the future. The current study examined if individuals who revert from PD-mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) to CI will be at increased risk for future PD-MCI and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD). The study utilized data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The sample included 364 newly diagnosed PD participants who were followed annually for up to 4 years. Based on the first and second assessments, we identified individuals who were CI at each assessment (CI-Stable) and individuals who were PD-MCI at baseline but then reverted to CI (Reversion). Analyses examined if participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk, relative to the CI-Stable group, for cognitive impairment at future assessments. Participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk for future cognitive impairment (PD-MCI or PDD) at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th annual follow-up, relative to the CI-Stable group. The Reversion group continued to be at increased risk for future cognitive impairment when adjusting for age, gender, education, depressive symptoms, and motor severity. A large proportion of individuals with PD-MCI will not show evidence of cognitive impairment within a year. However, these "reverters" continue to be at risk for future development of cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nanotechnology-based restorative materials for dental caries management

PubMed Central

Melo, Mary A.S.; Guedes, Sarah F.F.; Xu, Hockin H.K.; Rodrigues, Lidiany K.A.

2013-01-01

Nanotechnology has been applied to dental materials as an innovative concept for the development of materials with better properties and anticaries potential. In this review we discuss the current progress and future applications of functional nanoparticles incorporated in dental restorative materials as useful strategies to dental caries management. We also overview proposed antimicrobial and remineralizing mechanisms. Nanomaterials have great potential to decrease biofilm accumulation, inhibit the demineralization process, to be used for remineralizing tooth structure, and to combat caries-related bacteria. These results are encouraging and open the doors to future clinical studies that will allow the therapeutic value of nanotechnology-based restorative materials to be established. PMID:23810638

What tourist business managers must learn from disaster research.

PubMed

Drabek, Thomas E

2016-01-01

Death and social disruption caused by disasters of varying forms will continue to increase in the future. So too will the impacts on tourism, now one of the fastest growing and largest sectors of the worldwide economy. Tourist business managers must implement evidence-based preparedness activities to enhance the survival potential and future profitability of their firms. Drawing upon recent research studies of the tourist industry during times of crisis and the broad social science knowledge base regarding human responses to disaster, seven key lessons are described. Emergency managers must facilitate the incorporation of these lessons into the culture of tourist business managers.

Ambient response of a unique performance-based design building with dynamic response modification features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Çelebi, Mehmet; Huang, Moh; Shakal, Antony; Hooper, John; Klemencic, Ron

2012-01-01

A 64-story, performance-based design building with reinforced concrete core shear-walls and unique dynamic response modification features (tuned liquid sloshing dampers and buckling-restrained braces) has been instrumented with a monitoring array of 72 channels of accelerometers. Ambient vibration data recorded are analyzed to identify modes and associated frequencies and damping. The low-amplitude dynamic characteristics are considerably different than those computed from design analyses, but serve as a baseline against which to compare with future strong shaking responses. Such studies help to improve our understanding of the effectiveness of the added features to the building and help improve designs in the future.

Manual wheeled mobility--current and future developments from the human engineering research laboratories.

PubMed

Cooper, Rory A; Koontz, Alicia M; Ding, Dan; Kelleher, Annmarie; Rice, Ian; Cooper, Rosemarie

2010-01-01

Medical rehabilitation and assistive technology are immersed in a world transitioning to a basis in evidence-based practice. Fortunately, there is a growing body of knowledge related to manual wheelchair mobility to form a basis for clinical decision making. The results from research studies are useful for designing better wheelchairs, fitting and training people appropriately, contributing to evidence-based-medicine and guiding future research. This review describes some of the work related to manual wheelchairs that has and is being conducted within the University of Pittsburgh and the Human Engineering Research Laboratories of the United States Department of Veterans Affairs, and its application.

Systems Operation Studies for Automated Guideway Transit Systems : Summary Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-02-01

In order to examine specific Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) developments and concepts and to build a better knowledge base for future decision-making, UMTA has undertaken a new program of studies and technology investigations called the Urban Mass ...

Does the covariance structure matter in longitudinal modelling for the prediction of future CD4 counts?

PubMed

Taylor, J M; Law, N

1998-10-30

We investigate the importance of the assumed covariance structure for longitudinal modelling of CD4 counts. We examine how individual predictions of future CD4 counts are affected by the covariance structure. We consider four covariance structures: one based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process; one based on Brownian motion, and two derived from standard linear and quadratic random-effects models. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and from a simulation study, we show that there is a noticeable deterioration in the coverage rate of confidence intervals if we assume the wrong covariance. There is also a loss in efficiency. The quadratic random-effects model is found to be the best in terms of correctly calibrated prediction intervals, but is substantially less efficient than the others. Incorrectly specifying the covariance structure as linear random effects gives too narrow prediction intervals with poor coverage rates. Fitting using the model based on the integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process is the preferred one of the four considered because of its efficiency and robustness properties. We also use the difference between the future predicted and observed CD4 counts to assess an appropriate transformation of CD4 counts; a fourth root, cube root and square root all appear reasonable choices.

Future changes to drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairie Provinces based on NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-04-01

This study assesses projected changes to drought characteristics in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the prairie provinces of Canada, using a multi-regional climate model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II for the 1981-2003 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models for the 1970-1999 and 2041-2070 periods (i.e. eleven current and the same number of corresponding future period simulations). Drought characteristics are extracted using two drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Regional frequency analysis is used to project changes to selected 20- and 50-year regional return levels of drought characteristics for fifteen homogeneous regions, covering the study area. In addition, multivariate analyses of drought characteristics, derived on the basis of 6-month SPI and SPEI values, are developed using the copula approach for each region. Analysis of multi-RCM ensemble-averaged projected changes to mean and selected return levels of drought characteristics show increases over the southern and south-western parts of the study area. Based on bi- and trivariate joint occurrence probabilities of drought characteristics, the southern regions along with the central regions are found highly drought vulnerable, followed by the southwestern and southeastern regions. Compared to the SPI-based analysis, the results based on SPEI suggest drier conditions over many regions in the future, indicating potential effects of rising temperatures on drought risks. These projections will be useful in the development of appropriate adaptation strategies for the water and agricultural sectors, which play an important role in the economy of the study area.

The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in...

Impact of climate change on the operation of ski slopes in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to predict changes in the operation of ski slopes due to climate change and offer meaningful implications that the ski industry can refer to when preparing to address climate change. All 17 ski resorts in South Korea were selected as study sites. To determine the weather and managerial conditions for the operation of ski slopes, interviews with operators and a review of past weather and operational conditions were conducted. To project future changes in the season of operation for ski slopes, future weather data for the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s from RCP scenarios were adapted to the conditions for the operation of ski slopes.The study found that the artificial snowmaking begins when the temperature reaches -2 °C, the slope is opened 9 days after artificial snowmaking starts, and the slope is closed when the temperature reaches 0 °C. By applying future weather data to these conditions, it is estimated that the ski season will decrease in the future as follows: from around 130 days at present to around 120 days based on RCP 2.0 and RCP 6.0, around 130 days based on RCP 4.5, and 90 days based on RCP 8.5 in the areas where the average temperature of the ski season is below -2 °C; from around 120 days at present to around 120 days based on RCP 2.0 and 4.5, around 100-days based on RCP 6.0, and 60 days based on RCP 8.5 in the areas where the average temperature of the ski season is below 0 °C; from around 90 days at present to around 80 days based on RCP 2.0, around 90 days based on RCP 4.5, around 50 days based on RCP 6.0, and 10 days based on RCP 8.5 in the areas where the average temperature of the ski season is above 0 °C. In addition, it is also estimated that in the 2090s, 16 of 17 ski resorts can survive based on RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, 13 ski resorts can survive based on RCP 6.0, and none of the resorts can survive based on RCP 8.5, according to the 100-days rule, which is the minimum required duration of the operation of ski resorts. The results of this study show that there will be major changes in the ski industry due to climate change. It is expected that operators, who already invested massive budgets into the development of ski slopes, will experience difficulties in management due to the deterioration of destinations and the loss of skiers due to climate change. Thus, managerial strategies that helps operators flexibly respond to climate change are required.

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Knowledge, group-based medical mistrust, future expectations, and perceived disadvantages of medical genetic testing: perspectives of Black African immigrants/refugees.

PubMed

Buseh, A; Kelber, S; Millon-Underwood, S; Stevens, P; Townsend, L

2014-01-01

Reasons for low participation of ethnic minorities in genetic studies are multifactorial and often poorly understood. Based on published literature, participation in genetic testing is low among Black African immigrants/refugees although they are purported to bear disproportionate disease burden. Thus, research involving Black African immigrant/refugee populations that examine their perspectives on participating in genetic studies is needed. This report examines and describes the knowledge of medical genetics, group-based medical mistrust, and future expectations of genetic research and the influence of these measures on the perceived disadvantages of genetic testing among Black African immigrants/refugees. Using a cross-sectional survey design, a nonprobability sample (n = 212) of Black African immigrants/refugees was administered a questionnaire. Participants ranged in age from 18 to 61 years (mean = 38.91, SD = 9.78). The questionnaire consisted of 5 instruments: (a) sociodemographic characteristics, (b) Knowledge of Medical Genetics scale, (c) Group-Based Medical Mistrust Scale, (d) Future Expectations/Anticipated Consequences of Genetics Research scale, and (e) Perceived Disadvantages of Genetic Testing scale. Participants were concerned that genetic research may result in scientists 'playing God,' interfering with the natural order of life. In multivariate analyses, the perceived disadvantages of genetic testing increased as medical mistrust and anticipated negative impacts of genetic testing increased. Increase in genetic knowledge contributed to a decrease in perceived disadvantages. Our findings suggest that recruitment of Black African immigrants/refugees in genetic studies should address potential low knowledge of genetics, concerns about medical mistrust, the expectations/anticipated consequences of genetic research, and the perceived disadvantages of genetic testing.

Impact of Pharmacogenetics on Efficacy and Safety of Statin Therapy for Dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Maxwell, Whitney D; Ramsey, Laura B; Johnson, Samuel G; Moore, Kate G; Shtutman, Michael; Schoonover, John H; Kawaguchi-Suzuki, Marina

2017-09-01

Interindividual variability in response to 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors, or statins, with regard to both efficacy and safety is an obvious target for pharmacogenetic research. Many genes have been identified as possible contributors to variability in statin response and safety. Genetic polymorphisms may alter the structure or expression of coded proteins, with potential impacts on lipid and statin absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination as well as response pathways related to the pharmacologic effect. Many studies have explored the variation in statins' pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters; however, to our knowledge, few have established definitive relationships between the genetic polymorphisms and patient outcomes, such as cardiovascular events. In this review article, we provide a statin-based summary of available evidence describing pharmacogenetic associations that may be of clinical relevance in the future. Although currently available studies are often small or retrospective, and may have conflicting results, they may be useful in providing direction for future confirmatory studies and may point to associations that could be confirmed in the future when more patient outcomes-based studies are available. We also summarize the clinically relevant evidence currently available to assist clinicians with providing personalized pharmacotherapy for patients requiring statin therapy. © 2017 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

PubMed

Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

2015-01-15

SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case study basins and to assist future review of priority pollutants under the WFD as well as potential abatement options. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

PubMed

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Group-based social skills interventions for adolescents with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder: a review and looking to the future

PubMed Central

McMahon, Camilla M; Lerner, Matthew D; Britton, Noah

2013-01-01

In this paper, we synthesize the current literature on group-based social skills interventions (GSSIs) for adolescents (ages 10–20 years) with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder and identify key concepts that should be addressed in future research on GSSIs. We consider the research participants, the intervention, the assessment of the intervention, and the research methodology and results to be integral and interconnected components of the GSSI literature, and we review each of these components respectively. Participant characteristics (eg, age, IQ, sex) and intervention characteristics (eg, targeted social skills, teaching strategies, duration and intensity) vary considerably across GSSIs; future research should evaluate whether participant and intervention characteristics mediate/moderate intervention efficacy. Multiple assessments (eg, parent-report, child-report, social cognitive assessments) are used to evaluate the efficacy of GSSIs; future research should be aware of the limitations of current measurement approaches and employ more accurate, sensitive, and comprehensive measurement approaches. Results of GSSIs are largely inconclusive, with few consistent findings across studies (eg, high parent and child satisfaction with the intervention); future research should employ more rigorous methodological standards for evaluating efficacy. A better understanding of these components in the current GSSI literature and a more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of these components in future research will lend clarity to key questions regarding the efficacy of GSSIs for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. PMID:23956616

The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, O.; Hawkes, A.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.

2017-08-01

Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh-1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh-1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175-510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027-2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Fifth-year dental students' visions of leadership-A qualitative study.

PubMed

Taipale, H; Tuononen, T A; Suominen, A L

2018-04-22

Leadership skills are important in dentists' work. Leadership education already in undergraduate curriculum is noteworthy. The aim of this qualitative study was to describe dental students' visions of leadership: how they imagined they end up in leadership position, factors supporting either staying in or leaving the position and their future views. The data were gathered after participants, fifth-year dental students, attended a "Dentist as a Leader" study module. A method of empathy-based stories was utilised. Based on contrasting frame stories, students were divided into two groups and wrote essays about an imagined situation in which they either enjoyed their leadership position ("Stayers") or considered leaving it ("Leavers"). The data were analysed using the content analysis method. The reasons for ending up in a leadership position were similar in the two groups: accidentally drifting into or intentionally heading for it. Factors supporting staying or leaving the leadership position were more diverse and were divided into personal and working community levels. These factors were common and group-specific. Clinical work, personal life and the ability to improve the organisations were common factors. Good working community was a "Stayer"-specific factor. "Leaver"-specific factors included loneliness, stress and lack of public sector resources. Future career plans were similar in both groups emphasising clinical work. After having attended leadership training, dental students were able to describe their future careers and list factors supporting either staying or leaving an imagined leadership position. These factors can be utilised by organisations to develop better working environments for future dentist leaders. By recognising the factors, students themselves are able to plan their future career choices and prepare to become leaders. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Subject preferences of first- and second-year medical students for their future specialization at Chitwan Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Chitwan, Nepal – a questionnaire-based study

PubMed Central

Jha, Rajesh K; Paudel, Keshab R; Shah, Dev K; Sah, Ajit K; Basnet, Sangharshila; Sah, Phoolgen; Adhikari, Sandeep

2015-01-01

Introduction The selection of a discipline for future specialization may be an important factor for the medical students’ future career, and it is influenced by multiple factors. The interest of students in the early stages can be improved in subjects related to public health or of academic importance, as per need. Methods A questionnaire-based study was conducted among 265 first- and second-year medical students of Chitwan Medical College, Nepal to find out their subject of preference for postgraduation and the factors affecting their selection along with their interesting basic science subject. Only the responses from 232 completely filled questionnaires were analyzed. Results The preference of the students for clinical surgical (50.9%), clinical medical (45.3%), and basic medical (3.9%) sciences for postgraduation were in descending order. The most preferred specialty among male students was clinical surgical sciences (56.3%), and among female students, it was clinical medical sciences (53.6%). Although all the students responded to their preferred specialty, only 178 students specified the subject of their interest. General surgery (23.4%), pediatrics (23.4%), and anatomy (2.4%) were the most favored subjects for postgraduation among clinical surgical, clinical medical, and basic medical sciences specialties, respectively. More common reasons for selection of specific subject for future career were found to be: personal interests, good income, intellectual challenge, and others. Conclusion Many students preferred clinical surgical sciences for their future specialization. Among the reasons for the selection of the specialty for postgraduation, no significant reason could be elicited from the present study. PMID:26635491

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

EPA Science Inventory

The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
Mechanism-Based Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2005-09-01

In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate. The developed scenarios are suitable for use as input for chemical transport models (CTMs) and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Study to identify future cryogen payload elements/users for space shuttle launch during period 1990 to 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elim, Frank M.

1989-01-01

This study provides a summary of future cryogenic space payload users, their currently projected needs and reported planning for space operations over the next decade. At present, few users with payloads consisting of reactive cryogens, or any cryogen in significant quantities, are contemplating the use of the Space Shuttle. Some members of the cryogenic payload community indicated an interest in flying their future planned payloads on the orbiter, versus an expendable launch vehicle (ELV), but are awaiting the outcome of a Rockwell study to define what orbiter mods and payloads requirements are needed to safely fly chemically reactive cryogen payloads, and the resultant cost, schedule, and operational impacts. Should NASA management decide in early 1990 to so modify orbiter(s), based on the Rockwell study and/or changes in national defense payloads launch requirements, then at least some cryo payload customers will reportedly plan on using the Shuttle orbiter vehicle in preference to an ELV. This study concludes that the most potential for possible future cryogenic space payloads for the Space Transportation System Orbiter fleet lies within the scientific research and defense communities.

Future Jet Technologies. Part B. F-35 Future Risks v. JS-Education of Pilots & Engineers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gal-Or, Benjamin

2011-09-01

Design of “Next-Generation” airframes based on supermarket-jet-engine-components is nowadays passé. A novel integration methodology [Gal-Or, “Editorial-Review, Part A”, 2011, Gal-Or, “Vectored Propulsion, Supermaneuverability and Robot Aircraft”, Springer Verlag, Gal-Or, Int'l. J. of Thermal and Fluid Sciences 7: 1-6, 1998, “Introduction”, 2011] is nowadays in. For advanced fighter aircraft it begins with JS-based powerplant, which takes up to three times longer to mature vis-à-vis the airframe, unless “committee's design” enforces a dormant catastrophe. Jet Steering (JS) or Thrust Vectoring Flight Control, is a classified, integrated engine-airframe technology aimed at maximizing post-stall-maneuverability, flight safety, efficiency and flight envelopes of manned and unmanned air vehicles, especially in the “impossible-to-fly”, post-stall flight domains where the 100+ years old, stall-spin-limited, Conventional Flight Control fails. Worldwide success in adopting the post-stall, JS-revolution, opens a new era in aviation, with unprecedented design variables identified here for a critical review of F-35 future risks v. future fleets of jet-steered, pilotless vehicles, like the X-47B/C. From the educational point of view, it is also instructive to comprehend the causes of long, intensive opposition to adopt post-stall, JS ideas. A review of such debates may also curb a future opposition to adopt more advanced, JS-based technologies, tests, strategies, tactics and missions within the evolving air, marine and land applications of JS. Most important, re-education of pilots and engineers requires adding post-stall, JS-based studies to curriculum & R&D.

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

PubMed

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models. PMID:25501852

An Index-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity for Sustainable Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. E.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, K. S.; Hyun, S.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

Global precipitation pattern is changing due to climate change, causing drought and water scarcity all around the world. As water is mandatory to all lives, water availability is becoming essential and so is sustainable water resource management. Especially in agriculture, water resource management is crucial, as it is directly connected to the production. However, many studies about water scarcity show limits by focusing on current situation and overlooking future possibilities of water availability. Also, most of the studies about water scarcity use single index or model. To overcome these shortcomings, we assessed agricultural water scarcity considering future climate, using water scarcity indices. We assessed present and future water scarcity using several indices and compared the results derived from each index. The study area of this research is South Korea, as drought is a prominent problem in agricultural sector. Precipitation in Korea is concentrated in summer, causing severe drought in spring and fall. Rainfall density in Korea is increasing with climate change, and sustainable water resource management is inevitable. In this research, we used irrigational demand along with current and future crop production of 2030 and 2050 as water demand. We projected the future (2020-2100) runoff of dams located in Korea as water demand under future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The result showed severe water scarcity in Southern area of Korea both in the present and the future. It was due to increase of water demand and decrease of precipitation. It indicates that the water scarcity gets more intense in the future, and emphasizes the importance of water resource management of the southern part. This research will be valuable in establishing water resource management in agricultural sector for sustainable water availability in the future.

Study of systems and techniques for data base management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Data management areas were studied to identify pertinent problems and issues that will affect future NASA data users in terms of performance and cost. Specific topics discussed include the identifications of potential NASA data users other than those normally discussed, consideration affecting the clustering of minicomputers, low cost computer system for information retrieval and analysis, the testing of minicomputer based data base management systems, ongoing work related to the use of dedicated systems for data base management, and the problems of data interchange among a community of NASA data users.

Time perspective as a predictor of massive multiplayer online role-playing game playing.

PubMed

Lukavska, Katerina

2012-01-01

This article focuses on the relationship between the time perspective (TP) personality trait and massive multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG) playing. We investigate the question of frequency of playing. The TP was measured with Zimbardo's TP Inventory (ZTPI), which includes five factors-past negative, past positive, present hedonistic, present fatalistic, and future. The study used data from 154 MMORPG players. We demonstrated that TP partially explained differences within a group of players with respect to the frequency of playing. Significant positive correlations were found between present factors and the amount of time spent playing MMORPGs, and significant negative correlation was found between the future factor and the time spent playing MMORPGs. Our study also revealed the influence of future-present balance on playing time. Players who scored lower in future-present balance variables (their present score was relatively high compared with their future score) reported higher values in playing time. In contrast to referential studies on TP and drug abuse and gambling, present fatalistic TP was demonstrated to be a stronger predictor of extensive playing than present hedonistic TP, which opened the question of motivation for playing. The advantage of our study compared with other personality-based studies lies in the fact that TP is a stable but malleable personality trait with a direct link to playing behavior. Therefore, TP is a promising conceptual resource for excessive playing therapy.

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

Adherence to evidence-based guidelines among diabetes self-management apps.

PubMed

Breland, Jessica Y; Yeh, Vivian M; Yu, Jessica

2013-09-01

Smartphone apps can provide real-time, interactive self-management aid to individuals with diabetes. It is currently unclear whether existing diabetes self-management apps follow evidence-based guidelines. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent to which existing diabetes self-management apps address the seven self-management behaviors recommended by the American Association of Diabetes Educators (the AADE7™). The term "diabetes" identified relevant self-management apps via the Apple App Store search engine in March 2012. Ratings were based on app descriptions and downloads. Chi-square analyses assessed differences in apps based on developer type. Apps promoted a median of two AADE7™ skills. Overall reliability between description and download ratings was good (kappa = .66). Reliability of individual skills was variable (kappa = .25 to .91). Most diabetes apps do not conform to evidence-based recommendations, and future app reviews would benefit from testing app performance. Future apps may also benefit from theory-based designs.

ECLSS Integration Analysis: Advanced ECLSS Subsystem and Instrumentation Technology Study for the Space Exploration Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

In his July 1989 space policy speech, President Bush proposed a long range continuing commitment to space exploration and development. Included in his goals were the establishment of permanent lunar and Mars habitats and the development of extended duration space transportation. In both cases, a major issue is the availability of qualified sensor technologies for use in real-time monitoring and control of integrated physical/chemical/biological (p/c/b) Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). The purpose of this study is to determine the most promising instrumentation technologies for future ECLSS applications. The study approach is as follows: 1. Precursor ECLSS Subsystem Technology Trade Study - A database of existing and advanced Atmosphere Revitalization (AR) and Water Recovery and Management (WRM) ECLSS subsystem technologies was created. A trade study was performed to recommend AR and WRM subsystem technologies for future lunar and Mars mission scenarios. The purpose of this trade study was to begin defining future ECLSS instrumentation requirements as a precursor to determining the instrumentation technologies that will be applicable to future ECLS systems. 2. Instrumentation Survey - An instrumentation database of Chemical, Microbial, Conductivity, Humidity, Flowrate, Pressure, and Temperature sensors was created. Each page of the sensor database report contains information for one type of sensor, including a description of the operating principles, specifications, and the reference(s) from which the information was obtained. This section includes a cursory look at the history of instrumentation on U.S. spacecraft. 3. Results and Recommendations - Instrumentation technologies were recommended for further research and optimization based on a consideration of both of the above sections. A sensor or monitor technology was recommended based on its applicability to future ECLS systems, as defined by the ECLSS Trade Study (1), and on whether its characteristics were considered favorable relative to similar instrumentation technologies (competitors), as determined from the Instrumentation Survey (2). The instrumentation technologies recommended by this study show considerable potential for development and promise significant returns if research efforts are invested.

Systems Operations Studies for Automated Guideway Transit Systems : Discrete Event Simulation Model User's Manual.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-06-01

In order to examine specific Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) developments and concepts, and to build a better knowledge base for future decision-making, the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) undertook a new program of studies and techn...

Energy: Ford Foundation Study Urges Action on Conservation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammond, Allen L.

1974-01-01

Announces completion of a final report and summarizes recommendations of the Ford Foundation Energy Policy Project based on analyses of three different scenarios of how America's energy future might develop. The study urges that many conservation measures be planned and implemented. (RH)

25 CFR 167.6 - Carrying capacities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Grazing Committee, and the Navajo Tribal Council for review and recommendations prior to presentation to...; recommendations for future adjustments to the established carrying capacities shall be made by Range Technicians based on the best information available through annual utilization studies and range condition studies...

25 CFR 167.6 - Carrying capacities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Grazing Committee, and the Navajo Tribal Council for review and recommendations prior to presentation to...; recommendations for future adjustments to the established carrying capacities shall be made by Range Technicians based on the best information available through annual utilization studies and range condition studies...

Community-Based Review of Research Across Diverse Community Contexts: Key Characteristics, Critical Issues, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Ford, Angela; Wat, Eric; Brayboy, Missy; Isaacs, Mei-Ling; Park, Alice; Strelnick, Hal; Seifer, Sarena D.

2015-01-01

A growing number of community-based organizations and community–academic partnerships are implementing processes to determine whether and how health research is conducted in their communities. These community-based research review processes (CRPs) can provide individual and community-level ethics protections, enhance the cultural relevance of study designs and competence of researchers, build community and academic research capacity, and shape research agendas that benefit diverse communities. To better understand how they are organized and function, representatives of 9 CRPs from across the United States convened in 2012 for a working meeting. In this article, we articulated and analyzed the models presented, offered guidance to communities that seek to establish a CRP, and made recommendations for future research, practice, and policy. PMID:25973834

The balance sheet of benefits and harms of breast cancer population-based screening in Europe: outcome research, practice and future challenges.

PubMed

Broeders, Mireille; Paci, Eugenio

2015-11-01

Breast cancer screening programs are still object of harsh debate. In 2012, the Independent UK Panel reviewed the benefits and harms of mammography screening based on randomized trials and the EUROSCREEN Working Group reviewed European observational outcome studies. The conclusion was that screening programs should continue, while acknowledging that harms, such as the occurrence of false-positive results and overdiagnosis, can have a negative impact on a woman's life. Information on the balance sheet of the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening should help women and their physicians to make an informed choice. The future challenge for breast screening programs is to assess the feasibility, acceptability, effectiveness and impact of risk-based screening in order to maximize benefit-to-harm ratios.

The Law School as a Base for Interdisciplinary Studies in a University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willrich, Mason

1974-01-01

Discusses the objectives of the Center for the Study of Science, Technology and Public Policy at the School of Law of the University of Virginia, summarizes the center's activities, and draws conclusions concerning the future role of a problem-oriented, interdisciplinary study in legal education. (Author/PG)

Compound Complementarities in the Study of Motivated Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teitelbaum, Philip; Stricker, Edward M.

1994-01-01

The 1954 article by Eliot Stellar provided the theoretical focus for a great deal of research on the biological bases of human behavior. Future attention to the infrastructure of behaviors being studied, combined with reductionistic studies of neurons, will fulfill the potential contribution to behavioral neuroscience implicit in Stellar's…

NORTHWEST OREGON PILOT STUDY AREA (USA): A WATERSHED ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND IMPACTS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The Northwest Oregon Pilot Study Area encompasses approximately 59,167 km2 and comprises a mixtur...

Electrons for Neutrinos: Using Electron Scattering to Develop New Energy Reconstruction for Future Deuterium-Based Neutrino Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Adrian; Schmookler, Barak; Papadopoulou, Afroditi; Schmidt, Axel; Hen, Or; Khachatryan, Mariana; Weinstein, Lawrence

2017-09-01

Using wide phase-space electron scattering data, we study a novel technique for neutrino energy reconstruction for future neutrino oscillation experiments. Accelerator-based neutrino oscillation experiments require detailed understanding of neutrino-nucleus interactions, which are complicated by the underlying nuclear physics that governs the process. One area of concern is that neutrino energy must be reconstructed event-by-event from the final-state kinematics. In charged-current quasielastic scattering, Fermi motion of nucleons prevents exact energy reconstruction. However, in scattering from deuterium, the momentum of the electron and proton constrain the neutrino energy exactly, offering a new avenue for reducing systematic uncertainties. To test this approach, we analyzed d (e ,e' p) data taken with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Lab Hall B and made kinematic selection cuts to obtain quasielastic events. We estimated the remaining inelastic background by using d (e ,e' pπ-) events to produce a simulated dataset of events with an undetected π-. These results demonstrate the feasibility of energy reconstruction in a hypothetical future deuterium-based neutrino detector. Supported by the Paul E. Gray UROP Fund, MIT.

After the Gap Analysis: Education and Practice Changes to Prepare Nurses of the Future.

PubMed

Beauvais, Audrey Marie; Kazer, Meredith Wallace; Aronson, Barbara; Conlon, Suzanne E; Forte, Pamela; Fries, Kathleen S; Hahn, Judith M; Hullstrung, Russell; Levvis, Meg; McCauley, Paula; Morgan, Patricia Padula; Perfetto, Linda; Rebeschi, Lisa M; Solernou, Sheila B; Span, Patricia; Sundean, Lisa J

The purpose of the study was to describe the Connecticut Nursing Collaborative-Action Coalition's work in identifying and addressing gaps between nursing education and practice based on the Institute of Medicine's Future of Nursing report. Massachusetts Nurse of the Future (NOF) Competencies highlight the knowledge, skills, and attitudes/behaviors required for professional nurses. Integrating these concepts into the educational system will prepare the nursing workforce to respond to current/future health care needs and population health issues. Education and practice partners in four regions conducted a gap analysis of the education to practice transition for new graduate nurses using NOF as a framework for assessment. Gaps in competencies were similar across regions. However, each organization uniquely addressed curricular gaps to best prepare nurses of the future. Curriculum improvements will provide students the advantage of being prepared for the rapid changes happening in health care.

Mission to the Moon: An ESA study on future exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chicarro, A. F.

1993-01-01

The increasing worldwide interest in the continuation of lunar exploration has convinced ESA to carry out an investigation of the motivations to return to the Moon to establish a permanent or a semi-permanent manned lunar base. This study also considers the possible role Europe could play in the future exploration and possible utilization of the Moon. The study concentrated in this first phase mainly on scientific questions, leaving technological issues such as transportation, the role of humans, infrastructure, and policy matters to a later phase. It only partially considered questions relating to the exploitation of lunar resources and the impact of human activities on science.

Design Studies and Optimization of High-Field Nb$$_3$$Sn Dipole Magnets for a Future Very High Energy PP Collider

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashikhin, V. V.; Novitski, I.; Zlobin, A. V.

2017-05-01

High filed accelerator magnets with operating fields of 15-16 T based on themore » $$Nb_3Sn$$ superconductor are being considered for the LHC energy upgrade or a future Very High Energy pp Collider. Magnet design studies are being conducted in the U.S., Europe and Asia to explore the limits of the $$Nb_3Sn$$ accelerator magnet technology while optimizing the magnet design and performance parame-ters, and reducing magnet cost. The first results of these studies performed at Fermilab in the framework of the US-MDP are reported in this paper.« less

[Designing and implementation of a web-based quality monitoring system for plasma glucose measurement in multicenter population study].

PubMed

Liu, Yong; Wang, Limin; Pang, Richard; Mo, Nanxun; Hu, Yan; Deng, Qian; Hu, Zhaohui

2015-05-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the designing and implementation of a web-based plasma glucose measurement quality monitoring system to assess the analytical quality of plasma glucose measurements in multicenter population study and provide evidence for the future studies. In the chronic non-communicable disease and related factor surveillance in China, a web based quality monitoring system for plasma glucose measurement was established to conduct evaluation on plasma glucose monitoring quality and effectiveness in 302 surveillance centers, including quality control data entry, transmission and feedback. The majority of the surveillance centers met the quality requirements and passed the evaluation of reproducibility and precision of plasma glucose measurement, only a few centers required intensive training and re-assessment. In order to ensure the completeness and reliability of plasma glucose measurement in the surveillance centers, the establishment of web-based plasma glucose measurement quality control system can facilitate the identification of the qualified surveillance centers and evaluation of plasma glucose measurement quality in different regions. Communication and training are important in ensuring plasma glucose measurement quality. It is necessary to further improve this web-based plasma glucose measurement quality monitoring system in the future to reduce the method specific plasma glucose measurement bias.

ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LUECK, K.J.

2004-10-18

This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, andmore » summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation.« less

Accelerator Physics Working Group Summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Uesugi, T.; Wildnerc, E.

2010-03-01

The Accelerator Physics Working Group addressed the worldwide R&D activities performed in support of future neutrino facilities. These studies cover R&D activities for Super Beam, Beta Beam and muon-based Neutrino Factory facilities. Beta Beam activities reported the important progress made, together with the research activity planned for the coming years. Discussion sessions were also organized jointly with other working groups in order to define common ground for the optimization of a future neutrino facility. Lessons learned from already operating neutrino facilities provide key information for the design of any future neutrino facility, and were also discussed in this meeting. Radiation damage, remote handling for equipment maintenance and exchange, and primary proton beam stability and monitoring were among the important subjects presented and discussed. Status reports for each of the facility subsystems were presented: proton drivers, targets, capture systems, and muon cooling and acceleration systems. The preferred scenario for each type of possible future facility was presented, together with the challenges and remaining issues. The baseline specification for the muon-based Neutrino Factory was reviewed and updated where required. This report will emphasize new results and ideas and discuss possible changes in the baseline scenarios of the facilities. A list of possible future steps is proposed that should be followed up at NuFact10.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Deaf, Hard-of-Hearing, and Hearing Signing Undergraduates' Attitudes toward Science in Inquiry-Based Biology Laboratory Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gormally, Cara

2017-01-01

For science learning to be successful, students must develop attitudes toward support future engagement with challenging social issues related to science. This is especially important for increasing participation of students from underrepresented populations. This study investigated how participation in inquiry-based biology laboratory classes…

Professional Development Opportunities for Early Childhood Educators in Community-Based Child Care Centers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesay, Joanne Palermo

2008-01-01

In this study, the staff development opportunities among early childhood educators in community-based, nonprofit child care centers were investigated. The trends for professional development and implications for future staff development were determined from data gathered from surveys completed by 12 lead teachers, 5 paraprofessionals, and 5…

Lessons Learned from Undergraduate Students in Designing a Science-Based Course in Bioethics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loike, John D.; Rush, Brittany S.; Schweber, Adam; Fischbach, Ruth L.

2013-01-01

Columbia University offers two innovative undergraduate science-based bioethics courses for student majoring in biosciences and pre-health studies. The goals of these courses are to introduce future scientists and healthcare professionals to the ethical questions they will confront in their professional lives, thus enabling them to strategically…

Computer-Based National Information Systems. Technology and Public Policy Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. Office of Technology Assessment.

A general introduction to computer based national information systems, and the context and basis for future studies are provided in this report. Chapter One, the introduction, summarizes computers and information systems and their relation to society, the structure of information policy issues, and public policy issues. Chapter Two describes the…

Use of Technology in Interventions for Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldsmith, Tina R.; LeBlanc, Linda A.

2004-01-01

A growing number of studies have investigated diverse applications of technology-based interventions with children with autism. The purpose of this paper is to review the growing empirical support for the efficacy of technology-based interventions with children with autism and to recommend future directions for research. This review will focus on…

STREAMWATER ACID-BASED CHEMISTRY AND CRITICAL LOADS OF ATMOSPHERIC SULFUR DEPOSITION IN SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK, VIRGINIA

EPA Science Inventory

A modeling study was conducted to evaluate the acid-base chemistry of streams within Shenandoah National Park, Virginia and to project future responses to sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) atmospheric emissions controls. Many of the major stream systems in the Park have acid neutraliz...

Optimized ISRU Propellants for Propulsion and Power Needs for Future Mars Colonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Eric E.; Gustafson, Robert J.; Gramer, Daniel J.; Chiaverini, Martin J.; Teeter, Ronald R.; White, Brant C.

2003-01-01

In recent studies (Rice, 2000, 2002) conducted by ORBITEC for the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC), we conceptualized systems and an evolving optimized architecture for producing and utilizing Mars-based in-situ space resources utilization (ISRU) propellant combinations for future Mars colonization. The propellants are to be used to support the propulsion and power systems for ground and flight vehicles. The key aspect of the study was to show the benefits of ISRU, develop an analysis methodology, as well as provide guidance to propellant system choices in the future based upon what is known today about Mars. The study time frame included an early unmanned and manned exploration period (through 2040) and two colonization scenarios that are postulated to occur from 2040 to 2090. As part of this feasibility study, ORBITEC developed two different Mars colonization scenarios: a low case that ends with a 100-person colony (an Antarctica analogy) and a high case that ends with a 10,000-person colony (a Mars terraforming scenario). A population growth model, mission traffic model, and infrastructure model were developed for each scenario to better understand the requirements of future Mars colonies. Additionally, propellant and propulsion systems design concepts were developed. Cost models were also developed to allow comparison of the different ISRU propellant approaches. This paper summarizes the overall results of the study. ISRU proved to be a key enabler for these colonization missions. Carbon monoxide and oxygen, proved to be the most cost-effective ISRU propellant combination. The entire final reports Phase I and II) and all the details can be found at the NIAC website www.niac.usra.edu.

Consumer acceptance of technology-based food innovations: lessons for the future of nutrigenomics.

PubMed

Ronteltap, A; van Trijp, J C M; Renes, R J; Frewer, L J

2007-07-01

Determinants of consumer adoption of innovations have been studied from different angles and from the perspectives of various disciplines. In the food area, the literature is dominated by a focus on consumer concern. This paper reviews previous research into acceptance of technology-based innovation from both inside and outside the food domain, extracts key learnings from this literature and integrates them into a new conceptual framework for consumer acceptance of technology-based food innovations. The framework distinguishes 'distal' and 'proximal' determinants of acceptance. Distal factors (characteristics of the innovation, the consumer and the social system) influence consumers' intention to accept an innovation through proximal factors (perceived cost/benefit considerations, perceptions of risk and uncertainty, social norm and perceived behavioural control). The framework's application as a tool to anticipate consumer reaction to future innovations is illustrated for an actual technology-based innovation in food science, nutrigenomics (the interaction between nutrition and human genetics).

Temporal self appraisal and continuous identity: Associations with depression and hopelessness.

PubMed

Sokol, Yosef; Serper, Mark

2017-01-15

While depression is associated with decreased self-worth, less is known about how depression relates to the degree of perceived unity of the self over time (CI; continuous identity) and appraisal of past and future selves (temporal self-appraisal). In Study 1, we examined the relationship between depression severity and temporal self-appraisal. In Study 2, we examined depression and hopelessness severity as it relates to temporal self-appraisal and continuous identity. It was hypothesized that individuals with significant levels of depressed mood would report lower self appraisals of current and future selves and that hopelessness about the future would be associated with disturbances in perception of self over time (CI; continuous identity) and temporal self-appraisal. Study 1 examined depressed mood (n=75) and non-depressed mood (n=144) individuals to determine their self-rated personal attributes for their past, present and future selves using a validated task of temporal self-appraisal. Study 2 examined an independent sample of subjects. Based on cutoff scores for clinically significant depression and hopelessness, Depressed/Hopeless (n=63) and Non-Depressed /Non-Hopeless (n=168) subjects were asked complete the validated task of temporal self-appraisal and also complete a validated task to assess their continuous identity. In Study 1, a significant difference was found between the depressed mood group and the non-depressed mood group in how they see themselves changing over time. The non-depressed group perceived themselves increasing in positive personal attributes from past, to present, to future self. The depressed mood group perceived themselves as deteriorating from the past to the present in terms of positive attributes about their self-identity. However, contrary to expectations, the depressed group perceived their future self as improved from their present self. Subjects' past and future selves were at a similar level and both were significantly higher than perception of their present self-worth. Study 2 replicated these findings and also found severity of depression was significantly related to lower levels of CI. Additionally, it was found that the severity of hopelessness was minimally associated with continuous identity and temporal self-appraisal ratings. These results suggests that even people with depressed mood have an instinctive grasp of the possibility to an improved future self-worth despite the negative cognitions associated with present self-worth and hopeless expectations about the future. While depressed and hopeless individuals may view the world negatively and feel hopeless about their general future, these results suggest that depressed individuals distinguish between hopelessness about future external success and future self-improvement. Despite perceiving their past and future selves to be more positive, depression severity was associated with less continuous identity. Since depressed individuals perceive a future self as a return to or a recovery of a past self, therapeutic strategies may focus on improving a sense of continuous identity with past and future selves and focusing on deriving meaning from current life difficulties to improve beyond a past self, growing to a superior future self. Limitations include using self-report measures of depression and hopelessness. Future studies may wish to use individuals who were diagnosed with depression to explore further how depressed people see themselves changing from the present to the future. Additionally, future studies could determine if depressed individuals who do not perceive their future self to be improved are at higher risk for adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In response to the December 2016 article entitled "Vegetarian diet and all-cause mortality: Evidence from a large population-based Australian cohort - the 45 and Up Study".

PubMed

Taylor, Nathan G A

2017-07-01

In response to the December 2016 article entitled "Vegetarian diet and all-cause mortality: Evidence from a large population-based Australian cohort - the 45 and Up Study". A brief analysis of the article with suggestions for interpretation and considerations for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A study of the efficiency of hydrogen liquefaction. [jet aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. R.; Shaner, R. L.

1976-01-01

The search for an environmentally acceptable fuel to eventually replace petroleum-based fuels for long-range jet aircraft has singled out liquid hydrogen as an outstanding candidate. Hydrogen liquefaction is discussed, along with the effect of several operating parameters on process efficiency. A feasible large-scale commercial hydrogen liquefaction facility based on the results of the efficiency study is described. Potential future improvements in hydrogen liquefaction are noted.

A Phenomenological Study of How Biblical Spiritual Disciplines Influence Women's Character and Leadership Practices in Christian Faith-Based Institutions in Higher Education in North America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, Kristin Michelle

2017-01-01

As Christian faith-based institutions of higher education strive to uphold Christian values, there is a need to be intentional in identifying and developing future leaders. This study was viewed through the lens that women are underrepresented in senior-level positions in Christian institutions, they have unique leadership attributes to offer, and…

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.

The role of incretin-based therapies in prediabetes: a review.

PubMed

Ahmadieh, Hala; Azar, Sami T

2014-12-01

Prediabetes, a high-risk state for future development of diabetes, is prevalent globally. Abnormalities in the incretin axis are important in the progression of B-cell failure in type 2 diabetes. Incretin based therapy was found to improve B cell mass and glycaemic control in addition to having multiple beneficial effects on the systolic and diastolic blood pressure, weight loss in addition to their other beneficial effects on the liver and cardiovascular system. In prediabetes, several well-designed preventive trials have shown that lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions such as metformin, thiazolidinediones (TZD), acarbose and, nateglinide and orlistat, are effective in reducing diabetes development. In recent small studies, incretin based therapy (DPP IV inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists) have also been extended to patients with prediabetes since it was shown to better preserve B-cell function and mass in animal studies and in clinical trials and it was also shown to help maintain good long term metabolic control. Because of the limited studies and clinical experience, their side effects and costs currently guidelines do not recommend incretin-based therapies as an option for treatment in patients with prediabetes. With future clinical trials and studies they may be recommended for patients with impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance. Copyright © 2014 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Center for development technology and program in technology and human affairs. [emphasizing technology-based networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, M. D.

1974-01-01

The role of technology in nontraditional higher education with particular emphasis on technology-based networks is analyzed nontraditional programs, institutions, and consortia are briefly reviewed. Nontraditional programs which utilize technology are studied. Technology-based networks are surveyed and analyzed with regard to kinds of students, learning locations, technology utilization, interinstitutional relationships, cost aspects, problems, and future outlook.

Customized, Outcome-Based, Relevant Evaluation (CORE) at Lipscomb University: A Competency-Based Education Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein-Collins, Rebecca; Olson, Rick

2014-01-01

In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in competency-based degree programs at the postsecondary level. These programs are promising for the future of higher education because they establish clear expectations for what graduates must know and be able to do, and many models have been designed to allow students to learn and earn a degree…

Reserve Compensation System Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-06-30

exactly the same manner as active duty CPY. Because Training Pay is based upon the three cash elements, rather than basic pay alone, the exercise ...controversial. • Planned improvements to the Defense Forre Planning Data Base do not include: r.oftware to interface with the per- sonnel...systems for future. Based on its findings of manpower shortfalls, overages and problems in specific areas in both officer and enlisted ranks, the

Policy Options for Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Application in Healthcare; a Prospective View: Final Report (D5).

PubMed

van Oranje-Nassau, Constantijn; Schindler, Helen Rebecca; Vilamovska, Anna-Marie; Botterman, Maarten

2012-01-01

This article reviews the state of play of European markets and applications of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology in healthcare in Europe. Based on the current situation the study presents three scenarios for 2020, to describe futures in which the technology and health care sectors develop in different ways. The scenarios were discussed in expert workshops to derive issues that need to be addressed by future policies of the European Union and other stakeholders. The market assessment is based on a review of literature and an analysis of proprietary market data. The information on the state of RFID applications in Health in Europe summarises the results of a literature review, an online Delphi survey, expert interviews and seven cases studies in Europe and the US. The policy analysis is based on the outcomes of a scenario gaming workshop with experts from academia, industry, healthcare providers, policymakers and representatives of patient organisations.

Evangelical Protestants and the ACA: An Opening for Community-Based Primary Care?

PubMed

Franz, Berkeley; Skinner, Daniel

2016-07-01

Evangelical Protestants make up the largest religious subgroup in the United States, and previous research has shown that Evangelical churches are disproportionately active in community engagement and efforts toward social change. Although Evangelical Protestant perspectives have been considered with regard to persistent socioeconomic stratification and racial discrimination, less focus has been given to how churches interpret poor health outcomes within the United States. In particular, this research addresses how enduring health disparities are understood within the larger discussion of healthcare reform. Due to the similarity of approaches favored by participants in this study and community-based philosophy, a suggestion is made for future health policy dialogue. Although Evangelical Protestants have been most likely to reject all aspects of the Affordable Care Act, in many ways the findings of this study suggest the potential for successful future health policy collaboration. In particular, community-based primary care might appeal to Evangelicals and health professionals in the ongoing effort to improve population health and the quality of healthcare in the United States.

Materials processing in space: Future technology trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barter, N. J.

1980-01-01

NASA's materials processing in space- (MPS) program involves both ground and space-based research and looks to frequent and cost effective access to the space environment for necessary progress. The first generation payloads for research are under active design and development. They will be hosted by the Space Shuttle/Spacelab on Earth orbital flights in the early 1980's. hese missions will focus on the acquisition of materials behavior research data, the potential enhancement of Earth based technology, and the implementation of space based processing for specialized, high value materials. Some materials to be studied in these payloads may provide future breakthroughs for stronger alloys, ultrapure glasses, superior electronic components, and new or better chemicals. An operational 25 kW power system is expected to be operational to support sustained, systematic space processing activity beyond shuttle capability for second generation payload systems for SPACELAB and free flyer missions to study solidification and crystal growth and to process metal/alloys, glasses/ceramics, and chemicals and biologicals.

Fostering resilience among urban youth exposed to violence: a promising area for interdisciplinary research and practice.

PubMed

Jain, Sonia; Cohen, Alison K

2013-12-01

Most studies to date have examined negative effects of exposure to community violence, in line with the deficit-based perspective. However, given that most youth exposed to community violence demonstrate positive adaptation or resilience over time, we suggest a shift in perspective, practices, and policies across systems toward identifying and building individual, family, and community assets and strengths that may more effectively support youth who have been exposed to community violence and related risks into competent, caring, and thriving adults. In this article, we review how resilience has been conceptualized and operationalized within the context of community violence, highlight gaps in literature, and offer directions for future public health research and practice. We illustrate this review with practice-based examples from public health work in the San Francisco Bay Area. Future multidisciplinary longitudinal studies that identify protective processes and successful trajectories and rigorous evaluations of strength-based policies, programs, and protective processes are needed.

Why Do We Need Future Ready Librarians? That Kid.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ray, Mark

2018-01-01

In this article, the author examines the need of the Future Ready Librarians (FRL) initiative. The FRL Framework helps define how librarians might lead, teach, and support schools based on the core research-based components defined by Future Ready. The framework and initiative are intended to be ways to change the conversation about school…

Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

2009-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests of the eastern U.S.

Time-Based and Event-Based Prospective Memory in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Roles of Executive Function and Theory of Mind, and Time-Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, David; Boucher, Jill; Lind, Sophie; Jarrold, Christopher

2013-01-01

Prospective memory (remembering to carry out an action in the future) has been studied relatively little in ASD. We explored time-based (carry out an action at a pre-specified time) and event-based (carry out an action upon the occurrence of a pre-specified event) prospective memory, as well as possible cognitive correlates, among 21…

76 FR 59706 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Healthy Communities Study: How Communities Shape Children's...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-27

... quantitative and qualitative information obtained from community-based initiatives; community characteristics... published in scientific journals and will be used for the development of future research initiatives...

Current trends in feminist nursing research.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Ok

2010-01-01

Despite an increasing number of feminist studies in nursing, few reviews on current trends in feminist nursing research have been published. This article aims to explore the current trends in feminist nursing research and provide recommendations for future feminist studies in nursing. In multiple database searches, 207 articles were retrieved. These were reviewed based on 5 criteria: (1) epistemological background, (2) research questions, (3) research participants, (4) research methods, and (5) implications for changes. The review indicated that feminist nurse researchers with diverse epistemological backgrounds adopted new research methods to ask new questions; expanded their focus to include differences in ethnicity, class, sexual preference, and disability; and incorporated these diversities among women in a global context in their research. Based on these findings, recommendations for future feminist research in nursing are outlined. Copyright 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Future prospects of health management systems using cellular phones.

PubMed

Kim, Hun-Sung; Hwang, Yunji; Lee, Jae-Ho; Oh, Hye Young; Kim, Yi-Jun; Kwon, Hyeon Yoon; Kang, Hyoseung; Kim, Hyunah; Park, Rae Woong; Kim, Ju Han

2014-06-01

Cellular phones enable communication between healthcare providers and patients for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. However, few studies have examined the user-friendliness or effectiveness of cellular phone-based medical informatics (CPBMI) for healthcare. This study investigated the use of CPBMI to identify its current status within the medical field, advantages and disadvantages, practicability, clinical effectiveness, costs, and cost-saving potential. CPBMI was validated in terms of practicality and provision of medical benefits. It is critical to use CPBMI in accordance with the different features of each disease and condition. Use of CPBMI is expected to be especially useful for patients with chronic disease. We discussed the current status of the clinical use, benefits, and risks of CPBMI. CPBMI and information technology-based health management tools are anticipated to become useful and effective components of healthcare management in the future.

Large underground, liquid based detectors for astro-particle physics in Europe: scientific case and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autiero, D.; Äystö, J.; Badertscher, A.; Bezrukov, L.; Bouchez, J.; Bueno, A.; Busto, J.; Campagne, J.-E.; Cavata, Ch; Chaussard, L.; de Bellefon, A.; Déclais, Y.; Dumarchez, J.; Ebert, J.; Enqvist, T.; Ereditato, A.; von Feilitzsch, F.; Fileviez Perez, P.; Göger-Neff, M.; Gninenko, S.; Gruber, W.; Hagner, C.; Hess, M.; Hochmuth, K. A.; Kisiel, J.; Knecht, L.; Kreslo, I.; Kudryavtsev, V. A.; Kuusiniemi, P.; Lachenmaier, T.; Laffranchi, M.; Lefievre, B.; Lightfoot, P. K.; Lindner, M.; Maalampi, J.; Maltoni, M.; Marchionni, A.; Marrodán Undagoitia, T.; Marteau, J.; Meregaglia, A.; Messina, M.; Mezzetto, M.; Mirizzi, A.; Mosca, L.; Moser, U.; Müller, A.; Natterer, G.; Oberauer, L.; Otiougova, P.; Patzak, T.; Peltoniemi, J.; Potzel, W.; Pistillo, C.; Raffelt, G. G.; Rondio, E.; Roos, M.; Rossi, B.; Rubbia, A.; Savvinov, N.; Schwetz, T.; Sobczyk, J.; Spooner, N. J. C.; Stefan, D.; Tonazzo, A.; Trzaska, W.; Ulbricht, J.; Volpe, C.; Winter, J.; Wurm, M.; Zalewska, A.; Zimmermann, R.

2007-11-01

This document reports on a series of experimental and theoretical studies conducted to assess the astro-particle physics potential of three future large scale particle detectors proposed in Europe as next generation underground observatories. The proposed apparatuses employ three different and, to some extent, complementary detection techniques: GLACIER (liquid argon TPC), LENA (liquid scintillator) and MEMPHYS (water Cherenkov), based on the use of large mass of liquids as active detection media. The results of these studies are presented along with a critical discussion of the performance attainable by the three proposed approaches coupled to existing or planned underground laboratories, in relation to open and outstanding physics issues such as the search for matter instability, the detection of astrophysical neutrinos and geo-neutrinos and to the possible use of these detectors in future high intensity neutrino beams.

Doubly Strange Hypernuclei Physics with antiprotons at PANDA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szymanska, K.; Iazzi, F.

2010-04-26

The study of the double hypernuclei will be possible inside the future facility FAIR. A new technique for their production was recently proposed, based on high intensity antiproton beams in connection with a two-target set-up, for the future PANDA experiment at HESR. In particular, the production technique and optimized parameters for the primary target where the hyperon XI{sup -} is produced as well as the expected rates for the stoped XI{sup -} will be discussed.

Impact of the national full herd depopulation policy on the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis in Irish herds, 2003 to 2005.

PubMed

Good, M; Clegg, T A; Duignan, A; More, S J

2011-11-26

This study evaluated the impact of the Irish herd bovine tuberculosis (bTB) depopulation policy (depopulation, disinfection, contiguous testing and local badger removal where implicated) on the recurrence of bTB infection, by comparing the future risk in restocked herds following depopulation for either bTB or bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during 2003 to 2005. Each herd was assigned a 'previous bTB risk', based on bTB history during the five years before depopulation. Future bTB risk was estimated, using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model for time-to-breakdown for each study herd, to identify risk factors associated with bTB. Future bTB risk varied significantly by reason for depopulation and previous bTB risk. Herds depopulated for bTB (by definition, at high bTB risk) were not significantly different from BSE herds with no or a low previous bTB risk. BSE herds with a high previous bTB risk were found to be at significantly greater future bTB risk. Herd bTB depopulation measures, as currently applied in Ireland, are shown to be effective in enabling herds to attain and retain bTB freedom following restocking. Based on the data presented, and consistent with current knowledge of the bTB epidemiology, local badger removal contributes to efforts to limit recurrence of bTB in Ireland.

Household water demand and welfare loss for future Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis; de Roo, Ad

2015-04-01

Matching the availability of water to its demand in Europe is a major challenge for the future due to expected economic and demographic developments and climate change. This means there is a growing need to estimate future water demand and to optimize the water allocation to all end users to counteract welfare loss. At the European scale it is currently not possible to assess the impact of social and economic changes on future water demand or to prioritize water allocation amongst different sectors based on economic damage without extensive use of assumptions and generalizations. Indeed, our review of existing regional optimization models for Europe reveals that the social-economic component of the water use system needs to be improved by complementing them with detailed water use estimates and cost/benefit functions in order to determine the optimal situation. Our study contributes to closing this knowledge gap for the European household sector by quantifying future water demand and the effect of water pricing, as well as providing a method for the calculation of monetary damage due to unmet demand at the highest spatial resolution possible. We used a water demand function approach in which household water consumption depends upon some exogenous drivers including water price, household income, population and household characteristics and climate conditions. For each European country, the annual water consumption per capita was calculated at regional level (NUTS3) and subsequently disaggregated to five kilometer grid level based on a population density map. In order to produce estimates of water demand, the evolution of the explanatory variables of the water demand functions and population density map were simulated until 2050 based on related variables such as GDP and demographic projections. The results of this study will be integrated into the JRC hydro-economic modelling framework for an assessment of the Water-Agriculture-Energy-Ecosystems Nexus.

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education – an explorative Delphi-Study

PubMed Central

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E.

2016-01-01

Background: 64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of “outcome-orientated training” is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) – the German OF – the “Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education” (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the “Clinical-Practical Skills” chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students’ graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Methodology: Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. Results: 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant, and 57 were deemed irrelevant for the short-term future. Discussion: The theses on the future of healthcare, which were generated in this study and which were validated by numerous experts, provide indications of future developments of overall requirements for medical school graduates. For example, when applied to the content of the “Clinical-Practical Skills” NKLM chapter, they largely validate the future relevance of developing practical skills while also providing indications for their further development as applied to the consensus statement. PMID:27579362

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education - an explorative Delphi-Study.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E

2016-01-01

64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of "outcome-orientated training" is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) - the German OF - the "Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education" (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the "Clinical-Practical Skills" chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students' graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant, and 57 were deemed irrelevant for the short-term future. The theses on the future of healthcare, which were generated in this study and which were validated by numerous experts, provide indications of future developments of overall requirements for medical school graduates. For example, when applied to the content of the "Clinical-Practical Skills" NKLM chapter, they largely validate the future relevance of developing practical skills while also providing indications for their further development as applied to the consensus statement.

Evaluation of Evidence-Based Nursing Pain Management Practice

PubMed Central

Song, Wenjia; Eaton, Linda H.; Gordon, Debra B.; Hoyle, Christine; Doorenbos, Ardith Z.

2014-01-01

Background It is important to ensure that cancer pain management is based on the best evidence. Nursing evidence-based pain management can be examined through an evaluation of pain documentation. Aims This study aimed to (a) modify and test an evaluation tool for nursing cancer pain documentation, and (b) describe the frequency and quality of nursing pain documentation in one oncology unit via electronic medical system. Design and Setting A descriptive cross-sectional design was used for this study at an oncology unit of an academic medical center in the Pacific Northwest. Methods Medical records were examined for 37 adults hospitalized during April and May of 2013. Nursing pain documentations (N = 230) were reviewed using an evaluation tool modified from the Cancer Pain Practice Index to consist of 13 evidence-based pain management indicators, including pain assessment, care plan, pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions, monitoring and treatment of analgesic side effects, communication with physicians, and patient education. Individual nursing documentation was assigned a score from 0 (worst possible) to 13 (best possible), to reflect the delivery of evidence-based pain management. Results The participating nurses documented 90% of the recommended evidence-based pain management indicators. Documentation was suboptimal for pain reassessment, pharmacologic interventions, and bowel regimen. Conclusions The study results provide implications for enhancing electronic medical record design and highlight a need for future research to understand the reasons for suboptimal nursing documentation of cancer pain management. For the future use of the data evaluation tool, we recommend additional modifications according to study settings. PMID:26256215

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization

PubMed Central

Låftman, Sara B.; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-01-01

Future orientation can be defined as an individual’s thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents’ future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15–16 years) (n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying. PMID:29584631

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization.

PubMed

Låftman, Sara B; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-03-27

Future orientation can be defined as an individual's thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents' future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15-16 years) ( n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Analysis of Science and Technology Trend Based on Word Usage in Digitized Books

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Jinhyuk; Kim, Pan-Jun; Jeong, Hawoong

2013-03-01

Throughout mankind's history, forecasting and predicting future has been a long-lasting interest to our society. Many fortune-tellers have tried to forecast the future by ``divine'' items. Sci-fi writers have also imagined what the future would look like. However most of them have been illogical and unscientific. Meanwhile, scientists have also attempted to discover future trend of science. Many researchers have used quantitative models to study how new ideas are used and spread. Besides the modeling works, in the early 21st century, the rise of data science has provided another prospect of forecasting future. However many studies have focused on very limited set of period or age, due to the limitations of dataset. Hence, many questions still remained unanswered. Fortunately, Google released a new dataset named ``Google N-Gram Dataset.'' This dataset provides us with 5 million words worth of literature dating from 1520 to 2008, and this is nearly 4% of publications ever printed. With this new time-varying dataset, we studied the spread and development of technologies by searching ``Science and Technology'' related words from 1800 to 2000. By statistical analysis, some general scaling laws were discovered. And finally, we determined factors that strongly affect the lifecycle of a word.

Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

PubMed Central

Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

Coupling mechanism of electric vehicle and grid under the background of smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Mingyu; Li, Dezhi; Chen, Rongjun; Shu, Han; He, Yongxiu

2018-02-01

With the development of smart distribution technology in the future, electric vehicle users can not only charge reasonably based on peak-valley price, they can also discharge electricity into the power grid to realize their economic benefit when it’s necessary and thus promote peak load shifting. According to the characteristic that future electric vehicles can discharge, this paper studies the interaction effect between electric vehicles and the grid based on TOU (time of use) Price Strategy. In this paper, four scenarios are used to compare the change of grid load after implementing TOU Price Strategy. The results show that the wide access of electric vehicles can effectively reduce peak and valley difference.

[Methods of brain stimulation based on weak electric current--future tool for the clinician?].

PubMed

Kotilainen, Tuukka; Lehto, Soili M

2016-01-01

Methods of brain stimulation based on a weak electric current are non-invasive neuromodulation techniques. They include transcranial direct current, alternating current and random noise stimulation. These methods modify the membrane potential of neurons without triggering the action potential, and have been successfully utilized to influence cognition and regulation of emotions in healthy experimental subjects. In clinical studies, indications of the efficacy of these techniques have been obtained in the treatment of depression, schizophrenia, memory disorders and pain as well as in stroke rehabilitation. It is hoped that these techniques will become established as part of the care and rehabilitation of psychiatric and neurologic patients in the future.

Increasing Asian American women's research participation: the Asian grocery store-based cancer education program.

PubMed

Sadler, Georgia Robins; Ko, Celine M; Takahashi, Mitsuko; Ching, Christy R; Lee, Irene; Chuang, Gin C; Lee, Kathy K

2010-07-01

Research study participants with diverse characteristics produce the most generalizable outcomes, but recruiting heterogeneous samples is difficult. This pilot study tests whether Asian women (N=1079) with diverse language proficiencies, who were personally recruited to one study by a linguistically and culturally aligned recruiter, would enroll in another study with a single mailed invitation in English. The 134 participants in the second study represented 17.2% of those 779 women who had completed both baseline and follow-up surveys in the original study, making this characteristic the best predictor of future study participation. Of the 303 women in the first study who said they would be willing to participate in future studies, 17% (51) participated in the second study. Of the 733 who said they would not be willing to participate in future studies, 11% (83) participated. However, given the larger size of this group, researchers may recruit a greater absolute number of participants from it. While this rate of participation was less than the 25% rate achieved in the first study, the second study's single, mailed English language invitation was likely a barrier to participation. Securing IRB-approval to invite prior study participants from traditionally underrepresented communities to a new study is a strategy investigators can use to increase the diversity of their samples. Further research is warranted to determine whether Asian women who have participated in one study might also become effective recruiters for future studies.

Recent and future rainfall erosivity on the territory of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasa, Josef; Stredova, Hana; Stepanek, Petr; Hanel, Martin; Dostal, Tomas; Novotny, Ivan

2015-04-01

Water erosion is a main factor of degradation of soils used for agriculture in the Czech Republic. For landscape conservation purposes the soil erosion risk is defined here mostly by USLE (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). Within USLE the precipitation impact on erosion is a function of rainfall kinetic energy and intensity represented by R-factor. In the Czech Republic historically and recently several research teams have analyzed rainfall data to assess R-factor. Till now not many European countries have performed detailed spatially distributed analyses of rain erosivities. Most studies use only simplified methods based on long-term rainfall averages or databases of only several station-datasets. The most recent study on rainfall erosivity spatial distribution over the Czech Republic was based on digital rain gauge data from automatic stations of the Czech Hydrometeorogical Institute. The erosive rains were derived from continuous 1 minute step 10-year rainfall data (2003-2012) from 245 stations. Based on the research recent annual R-factor values in the stations vary from 37 to 239 [N.h-1] (values over 100 are located in mountain regions with minimum of agricultural land). Average value is 69 [N.h-1.year-1]. For the Czech Republic the future prediction is based on 10km resolution ALADIN/CZ regional climate model. Within the EU FP6 project CECILIA it was coupled with GCM ARPEGE to provide a projection of future climate in two time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. Daily precipitation volumes and percentiles of maximal events allowed authors to develop R-factor maps of present and future scenarios. Based on the analyses we can conclude that average value for the whole territory of the Czech Republic will remain close to 70 [N.h-1.year-1] or even decrease for 2071-2100, but we can expect significant changes (30-40 % rise or decrease) for several large agricultural regions (eg. Southern Moravia). These changes will have impact on soil erosion dynamics of the specific areas. Details on the spatial distribution of recent and future rain erosivities over the Czech Republic and the consequences for the erosion risk will be presented. The paper was prepared within the projects NAZV QJ1230056 and BV VG 20122015092.

Addressing Competencies for the Future in the Professional Curriculum

PubMed Central

Kelley, Kristi W.; Hammer, Dana P.; Haines, Stuart T.; Marlowe, Karen F.

2009-01-01

This paper reviews the literature, analyzes current and future practice, develops a list of competencies necessary for future pharmacists, and provides recommendations to pharmacy's academic enterprise regarding curricula of the future. Curricula of the future will center around 3 functional roles for pharmacists: patient-centered care, population-based care, and systems management; and must also foster the development of 5 cross-cutting abilities in student pharmacists: professionalism, self-directed learning, leadership and advocacy, interprofessional collaboration, and cultural competency. Future curricula must be developed in an evidence-based manner, focus less on information storage and retrieval, engage student pharmacists in a variety of highly interactive learning experiences, and expand experiential learning opportunities throughout all years. PMID:20221349

Future perspectives of resin-based dental materials.

PubMed

Jandt, Klaus D; Sigusch, Bernd W

2009-08-01

This concise review and outlook paper gives a view of selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based biomaterials with an emphasis on dental composites. A selection of key publications (1 book, 35 scientific original publications and 1 website source) covering the areas nanotechnology, antimicrobial materials, stimuli responsive materials, self-repairing materials and materials for tissue engineering with direct or indirect relations and/or implications to resin-based dental materials is critically reviewed and discussed. Connections between these fields and their potential for resin-based dental materials are highlighted and put in perspective. The need to improve shrinkage properties and wear resistance is obvious for dental composites, and a vast number of attempts have been made to accomplish these aims. Future resin-based materials may be further improved in this respect if, for example nanotechnology is applied. Dental composites may, however, reach a completely new quality by utilizing new trends from materials science, such as introducing nanostructures, antimicrobial properties, stimuli responsive capabilities, the ability to promote tissue regeneration or repair of dental tissues if the composites were able to repair themselves. This paper shows selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based dental materials, gives basic and industrial researchers in dental materials science, and dental practitioners a glance into the potential future of these materials, and should stimulate discussion about needs and future developments in the area.

Research in the Rehabilitation Unit Presents Challenges to Nurse Researchers.

PubMed

Rose, Mary Ann; Neil, Janice A; Castles, Ricky; Pokorny, Marie; Watkins, Frank; Hand, Mark

Gathering data from patients on a rehabilitation unit poses challenges for nurse researchers. A case study is presented that describes ways the researchers attempted to meet these challenges while conducting their study. The case study presents the approaches that the investigators took to undertake the study and then described the ways in which these approaches could have been improved. Their successes and failures are described. Suggestions are made for future investigators. Clinical nursing research is required to develop an evidence base for practice in the rehabilitation unit. An analysis of the challenges and possible methods of overcoming these challenges is useful to both future investigators and nurses in practice to insure that studies can be carried out effectively.

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

Rewards and unique challenges faced by African-American custodial grandmothers: the importance of future planning.

PubMed

Crowther, Martha R; Huang, Chao-Hui Sylvia; Allen, Rebecca S

2015-01-01

This exploratory study examined the context and consequences of custodial grandparenting, along with attitudes and preferences regarding future planning among 22 African-American custodial grandmothers. A mixed-method research design was employed. Based on our integration of two theories regarding future planning and health behavior change, caregiving, emotional distress, religiosity and spirituality, and future planning were assessed using questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews. African-American custodial grandmothers (mean age M = 53.64, SD = 9.58) perceived their caregiving role as rewarding (72%) yet challenging (86%). More than 40% reported significant emotional distress (CES-D ≥ 16) that warrants clinical attention. Findings showed that while 64% of study participants had future plans regarding who will substitute in their caregiving role if they become incapacitated, only 9% had completed a living will. Three major themes emerged regarding custodial grandmothers' caregiving role which includes: (1) rewards; (2) challenges including feeling overwhelmed and health concerns; and (3) caregiving decisions including conflicts between 'My plan was…/put self on-hold' for grandchildren and difficulty with future planning. These themes highlighted the dynamics of caregiving across time, including current context and the ongoing process of decision-making. Findings suggest that while African-American custodial grandmothers find caregiving rewarding, they face unique challenges in contemplating and developing future plans. Custodial grandmothers think about substitute caregivers for their grandchildren but need assistance communicating a plan focused on their own needs for future care. Culturally sensitive interventions designed to facilitate effective utilization of future plans within this caregiver population are needed.

Future risk of labour market marginalization in young suicide attempters--a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Tinghög, Petter; Alexanderson, Kristina; Dahlin, Marie; Wang, Mo; Beckman, Karin; Gould, Madeleine; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor

2014-10-01

Research on future labour market marginalization following suicide attempt at young age is scarce. We investigated the effects of suicide attempts on three labour market outcomes: unemployment, sickness absence and disability pension. We conducted a prospective cohort study based on register linkage of 1,613,816 individuals who in 1994 were 16-30 years old and lived in Sweden. Suicide attempters treated in inpatient care during the 3 years preceding study entry, i.e. 1992-94 (N=5649) were compared with the general population of the same age without suicide attempt between 1973 and 2010 (n=1,608,167). Hazard ratios (HRs) for long-term unemployment (>180 days), sickness absence (>90 days) and disability pension in 1995-2010 were calculated by Cox regression models, adjusted for a number of parental and individual risk markers, and stratified for previous psychiatric inpatient care not due to suicide attempt. The risks for unemployment [HR 1.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-1.64], sickness absence (HR 2.16; 2.08-2.24) and disability pension (HR 4.57; 4.34-4.81) were considerably increased among suicide attempters. There was a dose-response relationship between number of suicide attempts and the risk of disability pension, for individuals both with or without previous psychiatric hospitalizations not due to suicide attempts. No such relationship was present with regard to unemployment. This study highlights the strong association of suicide attempts with future marginalization from the labour market, particularly for outcomes that are based on a medical assessment. Studies that focus only on unemployment may largely underestimate the true detrimental impact of suicide attempt on labour market marginalization. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

A report on the AANA Manpower Study--Part I.

PubMed

Graham-Moore, B E

1982-06-01

Future reports to be released by the Center for Cybernetic Studies will present the occupational structure of the nurse anesthetist and will combine demographic data with a task analysis of the profession. This report has selected some variables of interest and analyzed them. Most important, however, is the intended flexibility that this data based information system should offer. For example, human resource modeling will forecast the number of nurse anesthetists who remain in or leave a given region. This modeling capability could aid schools of anesthesia in their curriculum planning by showing which tasks are predominant in a given location. It could also aid members by providing pertinent employment information. Future reports will present a scenario to exemplify how a data based information system can derive a series of human resource models. The purpose of such an exercise is to develop for the AANA the planning methods some of the larger corporations are already utilizing. The difference, of course, is that these planning methods could be used by the professional association of nurse anesthetists for the advantage of its members. This article has presented a short review of the Manpower Study. We welcome your ideas and suggestions to aid us in making future analyses of this information.

Changes in Black-legged Tick Population in New England with Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Huber, M.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is one of the most frequently reported vector-borne diseases in the United States. In the Northeastern United States, vector transmission is maintained in a horizontal transmission cycle between the vector, the black-legged ticks, and the vertebrate reservoir hosts, which include white-tailed deer, rodents and other medium to large sized mammals. Predicting how vector populations change with future climate change is critical to understanding disease spread in the future, and for developing suitable regional adaptation strategies. For the United States, these predictions have mostly been made using regressions based on field and lab studies, or using spatial suitability studies. However, the relation between tick populations at various life-cycle stages and climate variables are complex, necessitating a mechanistic approach. In this study, we present a framework for driving a mechanistic tick population model with high-resolution regional climate modeling projections. The goal is to estimate changes in black-legged tick populations in New England for the 21st century. The tick population model used is based on the mechanistic approach of Ogden et al., (2005) developed for Canada. Dynamically downscaled climate projections at a 3-kms resolution using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) are used to drive the tick population model.

Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

PubMed Central

Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

2016-01-01

Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

75 FR 34429 - Petition of Hard Eight Futures, LLC for Exemptive Relief, Pursuant to Section 4(c) of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

... conditions, to trade foreign non- narrow-based security index futures contracts where the foreign exchange... futures on broad-based security indexes; (ii) the securities comprising such an index are principally... the person within ten (10) business days that the claimant does not meet the requirements of the...

Urbanization Impacts on Flooding in the Kansas River Basin and Evaluation of Wetlands as a Mitigation Measure

EPA Science Inventory

This study evaluates the impacts of future land use changes on flooding in the Kansas River Basin. It also studies the impacts of wetlands on flood reduction. The study presents Hydrologic Engineering Centers-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) based runoff modeling and River A...

The Evolution of Superintendents as Instructional Leaders: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantu, Blanca S.

2013-01-01

This study examined the critical aspects of oversight that superintendents must employ to improve instruction. It was an analysis of superintendents as instructional leaders. In this study, we looked at four school district superintendents who have demonstrated instructionally effective school districts. The study was based on a three-year period,…

Grid Integration Webinars | Energy Systems Integration Facility | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Vision Future. The study used detailed nodal simulations of the Western Interconnection system with greater than 35% wind energy, based on scenarios from the DOE Wind Vision study to assess the operability Renewable Energy Integration in California April 14, 2016 Greg Brinkman discussed the Low Carbon Grid Study

Energy Systems Integration News | Energy Systems Integration Facility |

Science.gov Websites

power grid modeling scenarios Study Shows Eastern U.S. Power Grid Can Support Upwards of 30% Wind and newly released Eastern Renewable Energy Integration Study (ERGIS) shows that the power grid of the -based study of four potential wind and PV futures and associated operational impacts in the Eastern

Paraprofessional Education in SA DETAFE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Paul; Cesnich, Janine

A study examined the current outcomes and future of paraprofessional education provided under the auspices of South Australia's Department of Employment and Technical and Further Education (SA DETAFE). The primary objectives of the study were as follows: (1) determine whether an autonomous middle-level employment base exists in selected…

Can mindfulness-based interventions influence cognitive functioning in older adults? A review and considerations for future research.

PubMed

Berk, Lotte; van Boxtel, Martin; van Os, Jim

2017-11-01

An increased need exists to examine factors that protect against age-related cognitive decline. There is preliminary evidence that meditation can improve cognitive function. However, most studies are cross-sectional and examine a wide variety of meditation techniques. This review focuses on the standard eight-week mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) such as mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT). We searched the PsychINFO, CINAHL, Web of Science, COCHRANE, and PubMed databases to identify original studies investigating the effects of MBI on cognition in older adults. Six reports were included in the review of which three were randomized controlled trials. Studies reported preliminary positive effects on memory, executive function and processing speed. However, most reports had a high risk of bias and sample sizes were small. The only study with low risk of bias, large sample size and active control group reported no significant findings. We conclude that eight-week MBI for older adults are feasible, but results on cognitive improvement are inconclusive due a limited number of studies, small sample sizes, and a high risk of bias. Rather than a narrow focus on cognitive training per se, future research may productively shift to investigate MBI as a tool to alleviate suffering in older adults, and to prevent cognitive problems in later life already in younger target populations.

Measurement of historical cliff-top changes and estimation of future trends using GIS data between Bridlington and Hornsea - Holderness Coast (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castedo, Ricardo; de la Vega-Panizo, Rogelio; Fernández-Hernández, Marta; Paredes, Carlos

2015-02-01

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 km between Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI's ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use by managers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies.

The impact of napping on memory for future-relevant stimuli: Prioritization among multiple salience cues.

PubMed

Bennion, Kelly A; Payne, Jessica D; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2016-06-01

Prior research has demonstrated that sleep enhances memory for future-relevant information, including memory for information that is salient due to emotion, reward, or knowledge of a later memory test. Although sleep has been shown to prioritize information with any of these characteristics, the present study investigates the novel question of how sleep prioritizes information when multiple salience cues exist. Participants encoded scenes that were future-relevant based on emotion (emotional vs. neutral), reward (rewarded vs. unrewarded), and instructed learning (intentionally vs. incidentally encoded), preceding a delay consisting of a nap, an equivalent time period spent awake, or a nap followed by wakefulness (to control for effects of interference). Recognition testing revealed that when multiple dimensions of future relevance co-occur, sleep prioritizes top-down, goal-directed cues (instructed learning, and to a lesser degree, reward) over bottom-up, stimulus-driven characteristics (emotion). Further, results showed that these factors interact; the effect of a nap on intentionally encoded information was especially strong for neutral (relative to emotional) information, suggesting that once one cue for future relevance is present, there are diminishing returns with additional cues. Sleep may binarize information based on whether it is future-relevant or not, preferentially consolidating memory for the former category. Potential neural mechanisms underlying these selective effects and the implications of this research for educational and vocational domains are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Astrobiological Research on Tardigrades: Implications for Extraterrestrial Life Forms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horikawa, D. D.

2013-11-01

Tardigrades have been considered as a model for astrobiological studies based on their tolerance to extreme environments. Future research on tardigrades might provide important insight into the possibilities of existence of multicellular life forms.

Data center thermal management

DOEpatents

Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei

2016-02-09

Historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data and dynamic temperature sensor measurement data may be used to predict temperature. A first formulation may be derived based on the historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data for determining a temperature at any point in 3-dimensional space. The dynamic temperature sensor measurement data may be calibrated based on the historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data at a corresponding historical time. Sensor temperature data at a plurality of sensor locations may be predicted for a future time based on the calibrated dynamic temperature sensor measurement data. A three-dimensional temperature spatial distribution associated with the future time may be generated based on the forecasted sensor temperature data and the first formulation. The three-dimensional temperature spatial distribution associated with the future time may be projected to a two-dimensional temperature distribution, and temperature in the future time for a selected space location may be forecasted dynamically based on said two-dimensional temperature distribution.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Phytochemistry of the carnivorous sundew genus Drosera (Droseraceae) - future perspectives and ethnopharmacological relevance.

PubMed

Egan, Paul A; van der Kooy, Frank

2013-10-01

Species of the carnivorous genus Drosera L. have long been a source of valuable natural products. The various phytochemicals characteristic of these species, particularly 1,4-naphthoquinones and flavonoids, have contributed to the diverse utilization of sundews in traditional medicine systems worldwide. A growing number of studies have sought to investigate the comparative phytochemistry of Drosera species for improved sources of pharmaceutically important compounds. The outcomes of these studies are here collated, with emergent trends discussed in detail. Important factors which affect production of secondary metabolites in plants are critically examined, such as environmental influences and in vitro culture, and recommendations subsequently presented based on this. Explicitly, the current review aims to i) present an updated, comprehensive listing of the phytochemical constituents of the genus (including quantitative data where available), ii) summarize important factors which may influence the production of phytopharmaceuticals in plants, and iii) recommend guidelines for future research based on the above, including improved standardization and quality control. We have also included a section discussing future perspectives of research on Drosera spp. based on three different research lines i) the potential to produce much needed lead compounds for treatment of tuberculosis, ii) the potential role of anthocyanins in nitrogen transport, and iii) research into 'Natural Deep Eutectic' solvents produced by Drosera spp. in the droplets or 'dew' employed to capture insect prey. Copyright © 2013 Verlag Helvetica Chimica Acta AG, Zürich.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Forecast of jet engine exhaust emissions for future high altitude commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J.; Ingebo, R. D.

1974-01-01

Projected minimum levels of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are presented. The forecasts are based on: (1) current knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) the current status of combustion research in emission reduction technology; (3) predictable trends in combustion systems and operating conditions as required for projected engine designs that are candidates for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Results are presented for cruise conditions in terms of an emission index, g pollutant/kg fuel. Two sets of engine exhaust emission predictions are presented: the first, based on an independent NASA study and the second, based on the consensus of an ad hoc committee composed of industry, university, and government representatives. The consensus forecasts are in general agreement with the NASA forecasts.

Forecast of jet engine exhaust emissions for future high altitude commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J.; Ingebo, R. D.

1974-01-01

Projected minimum levels of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are presented. The forecasts are based on: (1) current knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) the current status of combustion research in emission reduction technology; and (3) predictable trends in combustion systems and operating conditions as required for projected engine designs that are candidates for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Results are presented for cruise conditions in terms of an emission index, g pollutant/kg fuel. Two sets of engine exhaust emission predictions are presented: the first, based on an independent NASA study and the second, based on the consensus of an ad hoc committee composed of industry, university, and government representatives. The consensus forecasts are in general agreement with the NASA forecasts.

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

The Past, the Present, and the Future of Associate Degree Nursing Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arlton, Donna

A review of the history of associate degree nursing (ADN) education is presented, along with a discussion of contemporary problems faced by ADN educators. The paper first notes the practical, hospital-based nature of early nursing education programs; reviews early studies calling for school-based programs to prepare nurses for different levels of…

Current Practices and Future Directions in Reporting Disability in School-Based Physical Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haegele, Justin Anthony; Hodge, Samuel

2017-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to determine what trends exist in the identification and description of participants with disabilities used in school-based physical education research. A total of 60 research articles published in the "Journal of Teaching in Physical Education" from 2010-2014 which included school-aged individuals…

Contextualization and Authenticity in TBLT: Voices from Chinese Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Qi; Wright, Clare

2017-01-01

In view of ongoing debates about the future of task-based language teaching (TBLT) in contexts of English as a foreign language (EFL), we present a detailed case study of teacher beliefs and practices regarding TBLT conducted in a secondary school in mainland China with a long history of communicative and task-based teaching approaches. We used a…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bower, G.

We summarize the current status and future developments of the North American Group's Java-based system for studying physics and detector design issues at a linear collider. The system is built around Java Analysis Studio (JAS) an experiment-independent Java-based utility for data analysis. Although the system is an integrated package running in JAS, many parts of it are also standalone Java utilities.

Should Family and Friends Be Involved in Group-Based Rehabilitation Programs for Adults with Low Vision?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rees, G.; Saw, C.; Larizza, M.; Lamoureux, E.; Keeffe, J.

2007-01-01

This qualitative study investigates the views of clients with low vision and vision rehabilitation professionals on the involvement of family and friends in group-based rehabilitation programs. Both groups outlined advantages and disadvantages to involving significant others, and it is essential that clients are given the choice. Future work is…

Community-based participatory research for the study of air pollution: a review of motivations, approaches, and outcomes.

PubMed

Commodore, Adwoa; Wilson, Sacoby; Muhammad, Omar; Svendsen, Erik; Pearce, John

2017-08-01

Neighborhood level air pollution represents a long-standing issue for many communities that, until recently, has been difficult to address due to the cost of equipment and lack of related expertise. Changes in available technology and subsequent increases in community-based participatory research (CBPR) have drastically improved the ability to address this issue. However, much still needs to be learned as these types of studies are expected to increase in the future. To assist, we review the literature in an effort to improve understanding of the motivations, approaches, and outcomes of air monitoring studies that incorporate CBPR and citizen science (CS) principles. We found that the primary motivations for conducting community-based air monitoring were concerns for air pollution health risks, residing near potential pollution sources, urban sprawl, living in "unmonitored" areas, and a general quest for improved air quality knowledge. Studies were mainly conducted using community led partnerships. Fixed site monitoring was primarily used, while mobile, personal, school-based, and occupational sampling approaches were less frequent. Low-cost sensors can enable thorough neighborhood level characterization; however, keeping the community involved at every step, understanding the limitations and benefits of this type of monitoring, recognizing potential areas of debate, and addressing study challenges are vital for achieving harmony between expected and observed study outcomes. Future directions include assessing currently unregulated pollutants, establishing long-term neighborhood monitoring sites, performing saturation studies, evaluating interventions, and creating CS databases.

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Global Futures: a multithreaded execution model for Global Arrays-based applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Vishnu, Abhinav

2012-05-31

We present Global Futures (GF), an execution model extension to Global Arrays, which is based on a PGAS-compatible Active Message-based paradigm. We describe the design and implementation of Global Futures and illustrate its use in a computational chemistry application benchmark (Hartree-Fock matrix construction using the Self-Consistent Field method). Our results show how we used GF to increase the scalability of the Hartree-Fock matrix build to up to 6,144 cores of an Infiniband cluster. We also show how GF's multithreaded execution has comparable performance to the traditional process-based SPMD model.

A pilot study of the impact of bovine spongiform encephalopathy on the futures of rural youth and Canadian farming.

PubMed

Cook, Trevor M; Brook, Ryan K; Sindhwani, Madhu; Thurston, Wilfreda E

2011-01-01

There is an abundance of literature examining the economic impact of Canada's bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak, but few studies examined the impact of such a crisis on health at the individual, family, or community levels. In particular, rural youth represent an under-researched population despite being at risk for a unique set of social and health concerns. In this pilot study, our objectives were to explore how rural youth responded to Canada's BSE crisis and how they perceived themselves, their families, and their communities to have been impacted. Seven youths (n = 7), recruited from within a university setting using a snowball sampling method, were interviewed. They represent a segment of rural, agriculturally based youth who are resilient due to good parental support. Although they reported high stress in their families during the immediate crisis in 2003, they did not report lasting high levels of stress or negative health effects due to BSE. They did report a decline in rural community health, identifying a reduction in community activities and in the participation of families in community activities. Participants identified elements that discourage youth from pursuing farming as a career and expressed concern for the future of family farming. The results are discussed in terms of the ability of agriculturally based youth to make the transition to adulthood. The implications have importance for future research and policy that addresses the structural supports for choice making, the long-term success for rural youth in transitioning to adult status, and the future of agriculture.

Future contingencies and photovoltaic system worth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. J.; Thomas, M. G.; Bonk, G. J.

1982-09-01

The value of dispersed photovoltaic systems connected to the utility grid was calculated using the optimized generation planning program. The 1986 to 2001 time period was used for this study. Photovoltaic systems were dynamically integrated, up to 5% total capacity, into 9 NERC based regions under a range of future fuel and economic contingencies. Value was determined by the change in revenue requirements due to the photovoltaic additions. Displacement of high cost fuel was paramount to value, while capacity displacement was highly variable and dependent upon regional fuel mix.

Efficiency and economics of large scale hydrogen liquefaction. [for future generation aircraft requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. R.

1975-01-01

Liquid hydrogen is being considered as a substitute for conventional hydrocarbon-based fuels for future generations of commercial jet aircraft. Its acceptance will depend, in part, upon the technology and cost of liquefaction. The process and economic requirements for providing a sufficient quantity of liquid hydrogen to service a major airport are described. The design is supported by thermodynamic studies which determine the effect of process arrangement and operating parameters on the process efficiency and work of liquefaction.

Classrooms of the Future. A Thirty-Three Act Play with an Ever-Changing Cast; Out of the Spotlight; Selected Acts; The Perils and Promises of Technological Literacy: Three Case Studies; The Producers, the Critics, and the Glitch Factor.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landsberger, Joe; Krey, Cynthia L.; Moorhead, Alice

2001-01-01

This special section on the history and creators of COTF VII describe the process for creating a conference on technology in education using the example of the Minnesota-based Classrooms of the Future Symposia presented by colleges and universities in the Twin Cities area. Highlights include the role of technology in instruction; promotional…

Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

PubMed

Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

"From the Beginning, I Felt Empowered": Incorporating an Ecological Approach to Learning in Elementary Science Teacher Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birmingham, Daniel; Smetana, Lara; Coleman, Elizabeth

2017-09-01

While a renewed national dialog promotes the importance of science education for future technological and economic viability, students must find science personally relevant to themselves and their communities if the goals set forth in recent reform movements are to be achieved. In this paper, we investigate how incorporating an ecological perspective to learning in teacher education, including opportunities to participate with science in connection to their everyday lives, influenced the ways in which elementary teacher candidates (TCs) envisioned learning and doing science and its potential role in their future classroom. We draw from data collected across three sections of a field-based elementary methods course focused on learning to teach science and social studies through inquiry. We argue that participating in an authentic interdisciplinary inquiry project impacted the ways in which TCs conceived of science, their identities as science learners and teachers and their commitments to bringing inquiry-based science instruction to their future classrooms. This paper addresses issues regarding access to quality science learning experiences in elementary classrooms through empowering TCs to build identities as science learners and teachers in order to impact conditions in their future classrooms.

Perception-based Impact upon Community Resilience in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, S.; Li, H.

2008-05-01

In the event of natural disasters, recovery from the direct and indirect effects of the disaster phenomena are topics of most community emergency response plans. In addition to the direct and indirect impacts that represent changes in activity that can be tied directly to an event, additional perception-based impacts are possible. Usually these perception-based impacts are larger and more difficult to measure or mitigate than direct impacts. These impacts are based primarily on the affected population's changes in attitudes toward a particular neighborhood or region based on fear of a future event or future losses. These impacts can be motivated by fear of future storms or man-caused events, lingering toxic contamination that may or may not have been removed, and any other behavior by individuals that cannot be explained by actual events or calculated measures of risk or uncertainty. Perception-based impacts are often difficult to estimate directly. In many instaces, case studies of comparable events are used to attempt to develop judgemental estimates of possible future impacts on the area of question. For example, impacts from such events as Love Canal, the Three Mile Island nucear accident, the September 11 attacks, and the Goiana radioactive material spill are used to get a sense of the severity and duration of possible perception-based impacts of a particular event. Perception-based impacts can include additional losses in property value, losses in population (or reduced rates of population due to lower migration rates) that cannot be attributed to actual economic and demographic changes that can be tied to the event directly. Additional perception-based impacts can include long-term worker absenteeism by an asymptomatic public (i.e., the worried well), losses in tourism, losses in cargo at transportation hubs due to fears by shippers and recipients who choose alternative modes of transportation for shipping goods into the affected area. Another proxy for perception-based impacts from man-caused events can be additional security expenditures by government, the private sector, and individuals. This presentation will describe potential methodologies for estimating or anticipating these potential events for generic planning scenarios.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Value of information analysis optimizing future trial design from a pilot study on catheter securement devices.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Reynolds, Heather; Gordon, Louisa G; Rickard, Claire M; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-12-01

Value of information analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach, which is based on type I and type II errors, in determining sample sizes for randomized clinical trials. However, in addition to sample size calculation, value of information analysis can optimize other aspects of research design such as possible comparator arms and alternative follow-up times, by considering trial designs that maximize the expected net benefit of research, which is the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of additional information. To apply value of information methods to the results of a pilot study on catheter securement devices to determine the optimal design of a future larger clinical trial. An economic evaluation was performed using data from a multi-arm randomized controlled pilot study comparing the efficacy of four types of catheter securement devices: standard polyurethane, tissue adhesive, bordered polyurethane and sutureless securement device. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize uncertainty surrounding the study results and to calculate the expected value of additional information. To guide the optimal future trial design, the expected costs and benefits of the alternative trial designs were estimated and compared. Analysis of the value of further information indicated that a randomized controlled trial on catheter securement devices is potentially worthwhile. Among the possible designs for the future trial, a four-arm study with 220 patients/arm would provide the highest expected net benefit corresponding to 130% return-on-investment. The initially considered design of 388 patients/arm, based on hypothesis testing calculations, would provide lower net benefit with return-on-investment of 79%. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses were based on the data from a single pilot trial which might affect the accuracy of our uncertainty estimation. Another limitation was that different follow-up durations for the larger trial were not evaluated. The value of information approach allows efficient trial design by maximizing the expected net benefit of additional research. This approach should be considered early in the design of randomized clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2014.

Role of Inflammation and Insulin Resistance in Mouse Models of Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

palatable ω3 FA diet for the mice in our study. A key finding was that switching a lard-based diet to a cocoa butter based diet eliminated the feeding...differences. The cocoa butter diet gives a more solid food pellet than the lard-based diet and is more palatable to the mice. Mice on a diet rich in...fat pad may involve production of TNF-α by SVCs or adipocytes and we intend to pursue this result in future studies. As we now have good data that

Changes in Urban Climate due to Future Land-Use Changes based on Population Changes in the Nagoya Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Hara, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Ma, X.; Yoshikane, T.; Kimura, F.

2013-12-01

Severe hot weather in summer season becomes a big social problem in metropolitan areas, including the Nagoya region in Japan. Surface air temperature warming is projected in the future. Therefore, the reduction of surface air temperature is an urgent issue in the urban area. Although there are several studies dealing with the effects of global climate change and urbanization to the local climate in the future, these studies tend to ignore the future population changes. This study estimates future land-use scenarios associated with the multi-projections of future population and investigates the impacts of these scenarios on the surface temperature change. The Weather Research and Forecast model ver. 3.3.1 (hereafter, WRF) was used in this study. The horizontal resolutions were 20km, 4km, and 2km, for outer, middle, and inner domains, respectively. The results from the inner domain, covering the Nagoya region, were used for the analysis. The Noah land surface model and the single-layer urban canopy model were applied to calculate the land surface processes and urban surface processes, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were given from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in August 2010. The urban area ratio used in the WRF model was calculated from the future land-use data provided by the S8 project. The land-use data was created as follows. (1) Three scenarios of population, namely, with high-fertility assumption and low-mortality assumption (POP-high), with medium-fertility assumption and medium-mortality assumption (POP-med), and with low-fertility assumption and high-mortality assumption (POP-low), are estimated using the method proposed by Ariga and Matsuhashi (2012). These scenarios are based on the future projections provided by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. (2) The future changes in urban area ratio were assumed to be proportional to the population change (Hanasaki et al., 2012). The averaged urban area ratio in the Nagoya region was 0.37 in 2010. The area ratios were projected to reach a peak in 2010 to 2020, and then to decrease in the future in all of scenarios. The urban heat island intensity in the Nagoya region is about 1.5°C in 2010. In contrast, the differences of surface temperature is -0.17°C, -0.21°C, and -0.30°C in POP-high, POP-med, and POP-low, from the current situation in 2010. These impacts correspond to the 10% to 20% of current urban heat island intensity. However, the changes in the efficiency of energy consumption were not considered. Considering that the future surface temperature change is projected to be about 1.2°C to 4°C in 2070, it is required to quantitatively evaluate future urban scenarios including the mitigation strategies for urban heat island such as the improvement of energy consumption, greening, and so on. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) Fund by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan and the Global Environment Research Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Preventing Substance Abuse among Black and Hispanic Adolescent Girls: Results from a Computer-Delivered, Mother-Daughter Intervention Approach

PubMed Central

Schinke, Steven P.; Fang, Lin; Cole, Kristin C. A.

2010-01-01

This 2008 study involved 546 Black- and Hispanic-American adolescent girls and their mothers from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Participants provided self-report data. Analysis of covariance indicated that the experimental intervention reduced risk factors, improved protective factors, and lowered girls' alcohol use and their future intentions to use substances. The study supports the value of computer-based and gender-specific interventions that involve girls and mothers. Future work needs to replicate and strengthen study results. Research support came from the National Institute on Drug Abuse within the National Institutes of Health of the United States Public Health Service. PMID:21190404

CIO in a Service Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorenson, Paul G.

The role of the Chief Information Officer (CIO) has evolved considerably since its inception in the 1980s. This paper begins with a brief review of the evolution of this role and sets the stage for future change brought about by the rise of the service economy. The enterprise of the future is then characterized based on an important global study by IBM. Using this characterization, the future challenges for CIOs in areas such as strategic planning, governance and operations management of information technology services are assessed from the perspectives of the four major elements of a service system (technology, people, organization and shared information). The paper concludes with a summary of the important findings, pointing to the challenge that CIOs of the future must be the leaders in their organizations in the delivery of smarter, on-demand service systems to smarter customers.

75 FR 69058 - Request for Comment on a Proposal to Exempt, Pursuant to the Authority in Section 4(c) of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... categorical Section 4(c) exemption to permit options and futures on shares of all or some precious metal commodity-based ETFs to be traded and cleared as options on securities and security futures, respectively... options and futures on shares of precious metal commodity- based ETFs. The Commission believes that...

A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

2017-12-01

There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

Campus Computing Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCredie, John W., Ed.

Ten case studies that describe the planning process and strategies employed by colleges who use computing and communication systems are presented, based on a 1981-1982 study conducted by EDUCOM. An introduction by John W. McCredie summarizes several current and future effects of the rapid spread and integration of computing and communication…

Children's Perceptions of Parental Emotional Neglect and Control and Psychopathology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Robert; Lennie, Susan; Minnis, Helen

2011-01-01

Background: Parental emotional neglect is linked to psychiatric disorder. This study explores the associations between children's perceptions of parental emotional neglect and future psychopathology. Methods: In a school-based longitudinal study of nearly 1,700 children aged 11-15 we explored children's perceptions of parenting, as measured by the…

Structures performance, benefit, cost-study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woike, O. G.; Salemme, C.; Stearns, E.; Oritz, P.; Roberts, M. L.; Baughman, J. L.; Johnston, R. P.; Demel, H. F.; Stabrylla, R. G.; Coffinberry, G. A.

1981-01-01

New technology concepts and structural analysis development needs which could lead to improved life cycle cost for future high-bypass turbofans were studied. The NASA-GE energy efficient engine technology is used as a base to assess the concept benefits. Recommended programs are identified for attaining these generic structural and other beneficial technologies.

Waiting Online: A Review and Research Agenda.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Gerard; Valverde, Mireia

2003-01-01

Reviews 21 papers based on 13 separate empirical studies on waiting on the Internet, drawn from the areas of marketing, system response time, and quality of service studies. The article proposes an agenda for future research, including extending the range of research methodologies, broadening the definition of waiting on the Internet, and…

Endophenotypes for Intelligence in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Leeuwen, Marieke; van den Berg, Stephanie M.; Hoekstra, Rosa A.; Boomsma, Dorret I.

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify promising endophenotypes for intelligence in children and adolescents for future genetic studies in cognitive development. Based on the available set of endophenotypes for intelligence in adults, cognitive tasks were chosen covering the domains of working memory, processing speed, and selective attention. This…

The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

The role of emotions in UV protection intentions and behaviors.

PubMed

Mahler, Heike I M

2014-01-01

Two studies examined the role of emotions, relative to cognitions, in predicting sun protection intentions and practices. In Study 1, 106 females were assessed for baseline sun protection, ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure-related cognitions (perceived susceptibility to skin damage, self-efficacy for regular sunscreen use, perceived costs of sun protection use, perceived rewards of tanning), anticipated negative mood following future risky UV behavior, and future sun protection intentions. Self-reported sun protection behavior was then assessed in the same participants five weeks later. The results of Study 1 demonstrated that the extent to which participants' expected to experience negative feelings if they engaged in future risky UV behavior predicted their intentions to sun protect and their subsequent sun protection behaviors independent of their UV radiation exposure-related cognitions. In Study 2, in addition to the assessments collected in Study 1, participants were exposed to an appearance-based intervention that included visual images of their existing skin damage and were then assessed for their emotional reactions to the intervention. The results replicated those of Study 1 and, in addition, showed that negative emotional reactions to the intervention predicted future sun protection intentions and self-reported behaviors at follow-up, independent of the various cognitive factors that are central to prominent models of health behavior. These studies provide preliminary support for the development of expanded health behavior models that incorporate anticipated and experienced emotions.

The operating room of the future: observations and commentary.

PubMed

Satava, Richard M

2003-09-01

The Operating Room of the Future is a construct upon which to develop the next generation of operating environments for the patient, surgeon, and operating team. Analysis of the suite of visions for the Operating Room of the Future reveals a broad set of goals, with a clear overall solution to create a safe environment for high-quality healthcare. The vision, although planned for the future, is based upon iteratively improving and integrating current systems, both technology and process. This must become the Operating Room of Today, which will require the enormous efforts described. An alternative future of the operating room, based upon emergence of disruptive technologies, is also presented.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Smoking Beliefs Among Chinese Secondary School Students: A Theory-Based Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiang; White, Katherine M; Young, Ross McD; Obst, Patricia L

2018-02-07

China has the world's greatest number of smokers but theory-based smoking interventions are rare. To develop an effective intervention, understanding the determinants of Chinese adolescent smoking is crucial. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is empirically supported to predict and assist in informing intervention strategies to change health-related behaviors. Based on the TPB, the elicitation of shared smoking beliefs among adolescents can inform future intervention designs among this at-risk population. We investigated the beliefs from six focus groups (N = 30) of one senior secondary school in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China. We used semi-structured questions based on the TPB framework, including prompts about behavioral (advantages and disadvantages), normative (important referents), and control (barriers and facilitators) beliefs. Following the Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology, data were discussed until consensus was reached. Auditing was undertaken by an external researcher. Seven domains (advantages, disadvantages, approvers, disapprovers, facilitators, barriers, and smoker images) were examined. Smoking as a gendered behavior, smoking as influenced by cultural and environmental contexts, smoking as a strategy to cope with stress, and awareness of the harm of smoking, are highlighted themes across domains. Data suggested an extended-TPB framework as an appropriate approach to adopt when addressing smoking beliefs among the target population. These beliefs can be utilized to inform future school-based interventions and public health campaigns targeting smoking among Chinese adolescents. A modified TPB approach has potential for future smoking interventions among Chinese adolescents. Beliefs elicited in this study form a strong basis for designing a location- and population-specific antismoking programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Brain-Computer Interfaces Using Sensorimotor Rhythms: Current State and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Yuan, Han; He, Bin

2014-01-01

Many studies over the past two decades have shown that people can use brain signals to convey their intent to a computer using brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). BCI systems extract specific features of brain activity and translate them into control signals that drive an output. Recently, a category of BCIs that are built on the rhythmic activity recorded over the sensorimotor cortex, i.e. the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR), has attracted considerable attention among the BCIs that use noninvasive neural recordings, e.g. electroencephalography (EEG), and have demonstrated the capability of multi-dimensional prosthesis control. This article reviews the current state and future perspectives of SMR-based BCI and its clinical applications, in particular focusing on the EEG SMR. The characteristic features of SMR from the human brain are described and their underlying neural sources are discussed. The functional components of SMR-based BCI, together with its current clinical applications are reviewed. Lastly, limitations of SMR-BCIs and future outlooks are also discussed. PMID:24759276

Monte-Carlo background simulations of present and future detectors in x-ray astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenzer, C.; Kendziorra, E.; Santangelo, A.

2008-07-01

Reaching a low-level and well understood internal instrumental background is crucial for the scientific performance of an X-ray detector and, therefore, a main objective of the instrument designers. Monte-Carlo simulations of the physics processes and interactions taking place in a space-based X-ray detector as a result of its orbital environment can be applied to explain the measured background of existing missions. They are thus an excellent tool to predict and optimize the background of future observatories. Weak points of a design and the main sources of the background can be identified and methods to reduce them can be implemented and studied within the simulations. Using the Geant4 Monte-Carlo toolkit, we have created a simulation environment for space-based detectors and we present results of such background simulations for XMM-Newton's EPIC pn-CCD camera. The environment is also currently used to estimate and optimize the background of the future instruments Simbol-X and eRosita.

Prevention of Rheumatic Diseases: Strategies, Caveats and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Finckh, Axel

2014-01-01

Rheumatic diseases affect a significant portion of the population and lead to increased health care costs, disability and even premature mortality; as such, effective preventive measures for these diseases could lead to substantial improvements in public health. Importantly, established and emerging data from natural history studies show that for most rheumatic diseases there is a period of ‘preclinical’ disease development during which abnormal biomarkers or other processes can be detected. These changes are useful to understand mechanisms of disease pathogenesis; in addition, they may be applied to estimate a personal risk of future disease, while individuals are still relatively asymptomatic. Based on this, a hope is to implement effective screening and preventive approaches for some rheumatic diseases, perhaps in the near future. However, a key part of such approaches is a deep understanding of the mechanisms of disease development as well as evidence-based and effective screening and preventive interventions that incorporate disease biology as well as ethical and public health concerns. PMID:25437291

The scientific legacy of Little Hans and Little Albert: future directions for research on specific phobias in youth.

PubMed

Ollendick, Thomas H; Muris, Peter

2015-01-01

We review issues associated with the phenomenology, etiology, assessment, and treatment of specific phobias in children and adolescents and provide suggestions for future research and clinical practice. In doing so, we highlight the early case studies of Little Hans and Little Albert and the advances that have been made following the publication of these seminal cases. In recent years, we have witnessed a deeper understanding of the etiology of specific phobias and developed a rich array of evidence-based assessments and treatments with which to address specific phobias in youth. Although much has been accomplished in this area of inquiry, we also note that much remains to be done before we can advance more fully our understanding, assessment, and treatment of specific phobias in youth. It will be important for future work to build more firmly on these developments and to better determine the moderators and mediators of change with our evidence-based treatments and to more vigorously pursue their dissemination in real-word settings.

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

PubMed

Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

2016-04-01

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Verification of NASA Emergent Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher; Vanderbilt, Amy K. C. S.; Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Hinchey, Mike

2004-01-01

NASA is studying advanced technologies for a future robotic exploration mission to the asteroid belt. This mission, the prospective ANTS (Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm) mission, will comprise of 1,000 autonomous robotic agents designed to cooperate in asteroid exploration. The emergent properties of swarm type missions make them powerful, but at the same time are more difficult to design and assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. We are currently investigating formal methods and techniques for verification and validation of future swarm-based missions. The advantage of using formal methods is their ability to mathematically assure the behavior of a swarm, emergent or otherwise. The ANT mission is being used as an example and case study for swarm-based missions for which to experiment and test current formal methods with intelligent swam. Using the ANTS mission, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring swarm behavior.

[Dental practitioners in Israel: past, present and future].

PubMed

Mann, J; Vered, Y; Zini, A

2010-04-01

Since 1980 various studies have been published in Israel dealing with dental manpower issues, utilizing several methods such as manpower to population ratio. The dental literature pointed out that dentistry in Israel has an over supply of dentists and that manpower to population ratio is one of the highest in the world 1:770. All studies were based on the information provided by the Ministry of Health which showed that Israel has over 9500 dentists. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics figures showed a much smaller number which was 5700 active dentists. This enormous gap in between two sources of information, following strict examination of the data revealed that the Bureau of Statistics information is reliable and hence, the real manpower to population ratio in Israel in 2008 was 1:1271. Prediction of manpower is extremely important and the base line information is crucial for future evaluations.

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

Will our children be healthy adults? Applying science to public health policy.

PubMed

Law, Catherine

2010-12-01

Cardiovascular disease is predicted to be a leading cause of death and disability worldwide for the foreseeable future. Observational studies link a variety of prevalent early life experiences (for example, smoking in pregnancy, child poverty) to increased risk of adult cardiovascular disease. Experimental animal studies suggest plausible causal relationships. However, there has been little consideration of how to use this wealth of information to benefit children's futures. Policy documents have drawn on research evidence to recognise that early experience influences life chances, the development of human capital, and long-term health. This has led to a general policy emphasis on prevention and early intervention. To date, there are few examples of the evidence base being useful in shaping specific policies, despite potential to do so, and some examples of policy misunderstanding of science. Minor changes to the perspectives of epidemiological research in this area might greatly increase the potential for evidence-based policy.

Applications of neuroscience in criminal law: legal and methodological issues.

PubMed

Meixner, John B

2015-01-01

The use of neuroscience in criminal law applications is an increasingly discussed topic among legal and psychological scholars. Over the past 5 years, several prominent federal criminal cases have referenced neuroscience studies and made admissibility determinations regarding neuroscience evidence. Despite this growth, the field is exceptionally young, and no one knows for sure how significant of a contribution neuroscience will make to criminal law. This article focuses on three major subfields: (1) neuroscience-based credibility assessment, which seeks to detect lies or knowledge associated with a crime; (2) application of neuroscience to aid in assessments of brain capacity for culpability, especially among adolescents; and (3) neuroscience-based prediction of future recidivism. The article briefly reviews these fields as applied to criminal law and makes recommendations for future research, calling for the increased use of individual-level data and increased realism in laboratory studies.

Future Prospects of Health Management Systems Using Cellular Phones

PubMed Central

Kim, Hun-Sung; Hwang, Yunji; Lee, Jae-Ho; Oh, Hye Young; Kim, Yi-Jun; Kwon, Hyeon Yoon; Kang, Hyoseung; Kim, Hyunah; Park, Rae Woong

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Cellular phones enable communication between healthcare providers and patients for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. However, few studies have examined the user-friendliness or effectiveness of cellular phone-based medical informatics (CPBMI) for healthcare. Materials and Methods: This study investigated the use of CPBMI to identify its current status within the medical field, advantages and disadvantages, practicability, clinical effectiveness, costs, and cost-saving potential. Results: CPBMI was validated in terms of practicality and provision of medical benefits. It is critical to use CPBMI in accordance with the different features of each disease and condition. Use of CPBMI is expected to be especially useful for patients with chronic disease. Conclusions: We discussed the current status of the clinical use, benefits, and risks of CPBMI. CPBMI and information technology–based health management tools are anticipated to become useful and effective components of healthcare management in the future. PMID:24693986

Engaging Future Teachers in Problem-Based Learning with the Park City Mathematics Institute Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilgrim, Mary E.

2014-01-01

Problem-based learning (PBL) is a pedagogical technique recommended for K-12 mathematics classrooms. However, the mathematics courses in future teachers' degree programs are often lecture based. Students typically learn about problem-based learning in theory, but rarely get to experience it first-hand in their mathematics courses. The premise…

Fluctuating seawater pH/pCO2 regimes are more energetically expensive than static pH/pCO2 levels in the mussel Mytilus edulis.

PubMed

Mangan, Stephanie; Urbina, Mauricio A; Findlay, Helen S; Wilson, Rod W; Lewis, Ceri

2017-10-25

Ocean acidification (OA) studies typically use stable open-ocean pH or CO 2 values. However, species living within dynamic coastal environments can naturally experience wide fluctuations in abiotic factors, suggesting their responses to stable pH conditions may not be reflective of either present or near-future conditions. Here we investigate the physiological responses of the mussel Mytilus edulis to variable seawater pH conditions over short- (6 h) and medium-term (2 weeks) exposures under both current and near-future OA scenarios. Mussel haemolymph pH closely mirrored that of seawater pH over short-term changes of 1 pH unit with acidosis or recovery accordingly, highlighting a limited capacity for acid-base regulation. After 2 weeks, mussels under variable pH conditions had significantly higher metabolic rates, antioxidant enzyme activities and lipid peroxidation than those exposed to static pH under both current and near-future OA scenarios. Static near-future pH conditions induced significant acid-base disturbances and lipid peroxidation compared with the static present-day conditions but did not affect the metabolic rate. These results clearly demonstrate that living in naturally variable environments is energetically more expensive than living in static seawater conditions, which has consequences for how we extrapolate future OA responses in coastal species. © 2017 The Authors.

The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

Treesearch

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2013-01-01

Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening: Past and future.

PubMed

Alberts, Arnout R; Schoots, Ivo G; Roobol, Monique J

2015-06-01

Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening remains a controversial topic. Up to now, there is worldwide consensus on the statement that the harms of population-based screening, mainly as a result of overdiagnosis (the detection of clinically insignificant tumors that would have never caused any symptoms), outweigh the benefits. However, worldwide opportunistic screening takes place on a wide scale. The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer showed a reduction in prostate cancer mortality through prostate-specific antigen based-screening. These population-based data need to be individualized in order to avoid screening in those who cannot benefit and start screening in those who will. For now, lacking a more optimal screening approach, screening should only be started after the process of shared decision-making. The focus of future research is the reduction of unnecessary testing and overdiagnosis by further research to better biomarkers and the value of the multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging, potentially combined in already existing prostate-specific antigen-based multivariate risk prediction models. © 2015 The Japanese Urological Association.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Recruiting future neuroscientists: what asking the recruits can teach us.

PubMed

Willcockson, Irmgard U; Phelps, Cynthia L

2004-12-01

Many different strategies are used to recruit students into scientific research careers, including neuroscience research. These strategies are rarely based on knowledge about students; instead, activities are selected based on their ease of implementation. The goal of the LEARN Project is to encourage high school students into mental health science research using the theme of learning and memory. One intervention the authors developed is five Web-based biographies introducing students to contemporary neuroscientist role models studying learning and memory. To guide the design of this intervention, the authors created a survey to determine where students obtain career information and who and what influences their career selection. In a convenience sample of 124 students, the authors found that almost all students use the Internet for information about careers, in addition to consulting family members and teachers. Students' career selections are influenced most by family members, teachers, and people already in the field. The most important factors students look for in their future career are money, fun, and a good match between current interests and future careers. The data affirm the value of outreach efforts that go beyond students to include a broader audience of parents and teachers who play a critical role in career selection.

Development of a web-based and mobile app to support physical activity in individuals with rheumatoid arthritis: results from the second step of a co-design process.

PubMed

Revenäs, Åsa; Opava, Christina H; Martin, Cathrin; Demmelmaier, Ingrid; Keller, Christina; Åsenlöf, Pernilla

2015-02-09

Long-term adherence to physical activity recommendations remains challenging for most individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) despite evidence for its health benefits. The aim of this study was to provide basic data on system requirement specifications for a Web-based and mobile app to self-manage physical activity. More specifically, we explored the target user group, features of the future app, and correlations between the system requirements and the established behavior change techniques (BCTs). We used a participatory action research design. Qualitative data were collected using multiple methods in four workshops. Participants were 5 individuals with RA, a clinical physiotherapist, an officer from the Swedish Rheumatism Association, a Web designer, and 2 physiotherapy researchers. A taxonomy was used to determine the degree of correlation between the system requirements and established BCTs. Participants agreed that the future Web-based and mobile app should be based on two major components important for maintaining physical activity: (1) a calendar feature for goal setting, planning, and recording of physical activity performance and progress, and (2) a small community feature for positive feedback and support from peers. All system requirements correlated with established BCTs, which were coded as 24 different BCTs. To our knowledge, this study is the first to involve individuals with RA as co-designers, in collaboration with clinicians, researchers, and Web designers, to produce basic data to generate system requirement specifications for an eHealth service. The system requirements correlated to the BCTs, making specifications of content and future evaluation of effectiveness possible.

Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

2015-12-01

Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

Base-age invariance and inventory projections

Treesearch

C. J. Cieszewski; R. L. Bailey; B. E. Borders; G. H. Brister; B. D. Shiver

2000-01-01

One of the most important functions of forest inventory is to facilitate management decisions towards forest sustainability based on inventory projections into the future. Therefore, most forest inventories are used for predicting future states of the forests, in modern forestry the most common methods used in inventory projections are based on implicit functions...

Estimation of future outflows of e-waste in India.

PubMed

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-03-01

The purpose of this study is to construct an approach and a methodology to estimate the future outflows of electronic waste (e-waste) in India. Consequently, the study utilizes a time-series multiple lifespan end-of-life model proposed by Peralta and Fontanos for estimating the current and future quantities of e-waste in India. The model estimates future e-waste generation quantities by modeling their usage and disposal. The present work considers two scenarios for the approximation of e-waste generation based on user preferences to store or to recycle the e-waste. This model will help formal recyclers in India to make strategic decisions in planning for appropriate recycling infrastructure and institutional capacity building. Also an extension of the model proposed by Peralta and Fontanos is developed with the objective of helping decision makers to conduct WEEE estimates under a variety of assumptions to suit their region of study. During 2007-2011, the total WEEE estimates will be around 2.5 million metric tons which include waste from personal computers (PC), television, refrigerators and washing machines. During the said period, the waste from PC will account for 30% of total units of WEEE generated. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of future outflows of e-waste in India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dwivedy, Maheshwar, E-mail: dwivedy_m@bits-pilani.ac.i; Mittal, R.K.

2010-03-15

The purpose of this study is to construct an approach and a methodology to estimate the future outflows of electronic waste (e-waste) in India. Consequently, the study utilizes a time-series multiple lifespan end-of-life model proposed by Peralta and Fontanos for estimating the current and future quantities of e-waste in India. The model estimates future e-waste generation quantities by modeling their usage and disposal. The present work considers two scenarios for the approximation of e-waste generation based on user preferences to store or to recycle the e-waste. This model will help formal recyclers in India to make strategic decisions in planningmore » for appropriate recycling infrastructure and institutional capacity building. Also an extension of the model proposed by Peralta and Fontanos is developed with the objective of helping decision makers to conduct WEEE estimates under a variety of assumptions to suit their region of study. During 2007-2011, the total WEEE estimates will be around 2.5 million metric tons which include waste from personal computers (PC), television, refrigerators and washing machines. During the said period, the waste from PC will account for 30% of total units of WEEE generated.« less

A tension between genuine care and other duties: Swedish nursing students' views of their future work.

PubMed

Holmström, Inger; Larsson, Jan

2005-02-01

There is a current need for nurses to take on new roles due to changing health care policies, economic cut-backs and shortage of staff. It is therefore important to study nursing students' view of their future profession. The theoretical framework was contemporary theories of competence development, which has shown that people's understanding of their work is expressed in their actions. The aim of this study was to describe nursing students' understanding of their future professional role in health care. A purposeful sample of 12 nursing students wrote narratives. The texts were condensed in five steps using the Empirical Phenomenological Psychological Method. The essence of the students' view of their future work was A tension between genuine nursing care and other duties. Four themes constituted this essence: professional status, working conditions and stress, evidence-based nursing contra holistic care, teamwork, co-operation and disrespect, and intensive care instead of geriatrics. This study highlights pedagogic and practical problems that need to be constructively addressed. The nursing students' eagerness to care in a holistic way needs to be acknowledged and used in a fruitful way. This core function of nursing needs to be integrated with up-to-date nursing research.

Sustaining visitor use in protected areas: Future opportunities in recreation ecology research based on the USA experience

Treesearch

Christopher A. Monz; David N. Cole; Yu-Fai Leung; Jeffrey L. Marion

2009-01-01

Recreation ecology, the study of environmental consequences of outdoor recreation activities and their effective management, is a relatively new field of scientific study having emerged over the last 50 years. During this time, numerous studies have improved our understanding of how use-related, environmental and managerial factors affect ecological...

Studies of Expansive Learning: Foundations, Findings and Future Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engestrom, Yrjo; Sannino, Annalisa

2010-01-01

The paper examines studies based on the theory of expansive learning, formulated in 1987. In recent years the theory has been used in a wide variety of studies and interventions. The theory builds on foundational ideas put forward by Vygotsky, Leont'ev, Il'enkov, and Davydov, key figures in the Russian school of cultural-historical activity…

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Perturbations on Urban and Regional Ozone Levels in South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in temperature. The number of exceedances of the 8-h ozone standard increased significantly with each degree rise of temperature with the problem becoming even more acute in light of stricter future proposed standards of ozone.

Accessible Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbee, Brent W.

2015-01-01

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets whose orbits are in close proximity to Earth's orbit; specifically, they have perihelia less than 1.3 astronomical units. NEOs particularly near Earth asteroids (NEAs) are identified as potential destinations for future human exploration missions. In this presentation I provide an overview of the current state of knowledge regarding the astrodynamical accessibility of NEAs according to NASA's Near Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). I also investigate the extremes of NEA accessibility using case studies and illuminate the fact that a space-based survey for NEOs is essential to expanding the set of known accessible NEAs for future human exploration missions.

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making.

Implementation and outcomes of inquiry-based learning in mathematics content courses for pre-service teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laursen, Sandra L.; Hassi, Marja-Liisa; Hough, Sarah

2016-02-01

This mixed-methods study describes classroom characteristics and student outcomes from university mathematics courses that are based in mathematics departments, targeted to future pre-tertiary teachers, and taught with inquiry-based learning (IBL) approaches. The study focused on three two-term sequences taught at two research universities, separately targeting elementary and secondary pre-service teachers. Classroom observation established that the courses were taught with student-centred methods that were comparable to those used in IBL courses for students in mathematics-intensive fields at the same institutions. To measure pre-service teachers' gains in mathematical knowledge for teaching, we administered the Learning Mathematics for Teaching (LMT) instrument developed by Hill, Ball and Schilling for in-service teacher professional development. Results from the LMT show that pre-service teachers made significant score gains from beginning to end of their course, while data from interviews and from surveys of learning gains show that pre-service teachers viewed their gains as relevant to their future teaching work. Measured changes on pre-/post-surveys of attitudes and beliefs were generally supportive of learning mathematics but modest in magnitude. The study is distinctive in applying the LMT to document pre-service teachers' growth in mathematical knowledge for teaching. The study also suggests IBL is an approach well suited to mathematics departments seeking to strengthen their pre-service teacher preparation offerings in ways consistent with research-based recommendations.

Defining the Scope of Prognosis: Primary Care Clinicians' Perspectives on Predicting the Future Health of Older Adults.

PubMed

Thomas, John M; Fried, Terri R

2018-05-01

Studies examining the attitudes of clinicians toward prognostication for older adults have focused on life expectancy prediction. Little is known about whether clinicians approach prognostication in other ways. To describe how clinicians approach prognostication for older adults, defined broadly as making projections about patients' future health. In five focus groups, 30 primary care clinicians from community-based, academic-affiliated, and Veterans Affairs primary care practices were given open-ended questions about how they make projections about their patients' future health and how this informs the approach to care. Content analysis was used to organize responses into themes. Clinicians spoke about future health in terms of a variety of health outcomes in addition to life expectancy, including independence in activities and decision making, quality of life, avoiding hospitalization, and symptom burden. They described approaches in predicting these health outcomes, including making observations about the overall trajectory of patients to predict health outcomes and recognizing increased risk for adverse health outcomes. Clinicians expressed reservations about using estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to think about and communicate patients' future health. They discussed ways in which future research might help them in thinking about and discussing patients' future health to guide care decisions, including identifying when and whether interventions might impact future health. The perspectives of primary care clinicians in this study confirm that prognostic considerations can go beyond precise estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to include a number of outcomes and approaches to predicting those outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Na; Goins, John D.

2015-02-01

The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social,more » and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.« less

Disturbance Distance: Combining a process based ecosystem model and remote sensing data to map the vulnerability of U.S. forested ecosystems to potentially altered disturbance rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.

2015-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. In addition, recent studies suggest that disturbance rates may increase in the future under altered climate and land use scenarios. Thus understanding how vulnerable forested ecosystems are to potential changes in disturbance rates is of high importance. This study calculated the theoretical threshold rate of disturbance for which forest ecosystems could no longer be sustained (λ*) across the Coterminous U.S. using an advanced process based ecosystem model (ED). Published rates of disturbance (λ) in 50 study sites were obtained from the North American Forest Disturbance (NAFD) program. Disturbance distance (λ* - λ) was calculated for each site by differencing the model based threshold under current climate conditions and average observed rates of disturbance over the last quarter century. Preliminary results confirm all sample forest sites have current average rates of disturbance below λ*, but there were interesting patterns in the recorded disturbance distances. In general western sites had much smaller disturbance distances, suggesting higher vulnerability to change, while eastern sites showed larger buffers. Ongoing work is being conducted to assess the vulnerability of these sites in the context of potential future changes by propagating scenarios of future climate and land-use change through the analysis.

Reasonable classical concepts in human lower limb anatomy from the viewpoint of the primitive persistent sciatic artery and twisting human lower limb.

PubMed

Kawashima, Tomokazu; Sasaki, Hiroshi

2010-11-01

The main aim of this review is (1) to introduce the two previous studies we published human lower limb anatomy based on the conventional macroscopic anatomical [corrected] criteria with hazardous recognition of this description, (2) to activate the discussion whether the limb homology exists, and (3) to contribute to future study filling the gap between the gross anatomy and embryology. One of the topics we discussed was the human persistent sciatic artery. To date, numerous human cases of persistent sciatic artery have been reported in which the anomalous artery was present in the posterior compartment of the thigh alongside the sciatic nerve. As one of the important criteria for assessing the human primitive sciatic artery, its ventral arterial position with respect to the sciatic nerve is reasonable based on the initial positional relationship between ventral arterial and dorsal nervous systems and comparative anatomical findings. We also discuss ways of considering the topography of muscles of the lower limb and their innervations compared to those of the upper limb. We propose a schema of the complex anatomical characteristics of the lower limb based on the vertebrate body plan. According to this reasonable schema, the twisted anatomy of the lower limb can be understood more easily. These two main ideas discussed in this paper will be useful for further understanding of the anatomy of the lower limb and as a first step for future. We hope that the future study in lower limb will be further developed by both viewpoints of the classical gross anatomy and recent embryology.

The 1992-1993 advanced design program. Part 1: The Mars methane engine project. Part 2: The Mars oxygen processor new furnace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauer, Stephen; Hoover, Scott; Lawrence, Lori; Paparistodemou, Christos; Taylor, Doug

1993-04-01

Three constituents of the Martian atmosphere, methane, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, can be used for internal combustion in engines utilized for future space exploration on Mars. These three gases, considered as the test case in this research, will be examined to determine required flow rates needed for combustion and optimization of engine performance. Results of the test case are examined in relation to a base case of methane and air for comparative purposes. Testing of exhaust temperatures, cylinder pressure, and exhaust gas analysis were performed for the base case and test case. Also described is a study utilizing a zirconia cell to convert carbon dioxide into usable oxygen to help support future Mars missions.

The 1992-1993 advanced design program. Part 1: The Mars methane engine project. Part 2: The Mars oxygen processor new furnace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauer, Stephen; Hoover, Scott; Lawrence, Lori; Paparistodemou, Christos; Taylor, Doug

1993-01-01

Three constituents of the Martian atmosphere, methane, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, can be used for internal combustion in engines utilized for future space exploration on Mars. These three gases, considered as the test case in this research, will be examined to determine required flow rates needed for combustion and optimization of engine performance. Results of the test case are examined in relation to a base case of methane and air for comparative purposes. Testing of exhaust temperatures, cylinder pressure, and exhaust gas analysis were performed for the base case and test case. Also described is a study utilizing a zirconia cell to convert carbon dioxide into usable oxygen to help support future Mars missions.

Influence of delivery strategy on message-processing mechanisms and future adherence to a Dutch computer-tailored smoking cessation intervention.

PubMed

Stanczyk, Nicola Esther; Crutzen, Rik; Bolman, Catherine; Muris, Jean; de Vries, Hein

2013-02-06

Smoking tobacco is one of the most preventable causes of illness and death. Web-based tailored smoking cessation interventions have shown to be effective. Although these interventions have the potential to reach a large number of smokers, they often face high attrition rates, especially among lower educated smokers. A possible reason for the high attrition rates in the latter group is that computer-tailored smoking cessation interventions may not be attractive enough as they are mainly text-based. Video-based messages might be more effective in attracting attention and stimulating comprehension in people with a lower educational level and could therefore reduce attrition rates. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether differences exist in message-processing mechanisms (attention, comprehension, self-reference, appreciation, processing) and future adherence (intention to visit/use the website again, recommend the website to others), according to delivery strategy (video or text based messages) and educational level, to a Dutch computer-tailored smoking cessation program. Smokers who were motivated to quit within the following 6 months and who were aged over 16 were included in the program. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions (video/text CT). The sample was stratified into 2 categories: lower and higher educated participants. In total, 139 participants completed the first session of the web-based tailored intervention and were subsequently asked to fill out a questionnaire assessing message-processing mechanisms and future adherence. ANOVAs and regression analyses were conducted to investigate the differences in message-processing mechanisms and future adherence with regard to delivery strategy and education. No interaction effects were found between delivery strategy (video vs text) and educational level on message-processing mechanisms and future adherence. Delivery strategy had no effect on future adherence and processing mechanisms. However, in both groups results indicated that lower educated participants showed higher attention (F(1,138)=3.97; P=.05) and processing levels (F(1,138)=4.58; P=.04). Results revealed also that lower educated participants were more inclined to visit the computer-tailored intervention website again (F(1,138)=4.43; P=.04). Computer-tailored programs have the potential to positively influence lower educated groups as they might be more involved in the computer-tailored intervention than higher educated smokers. Longitudinal studies with a larger sample are needed to gain more insight into the role of delivery strategy in tailored information and to investigate whether the intention to visit the intervention website again results in the ultimate goal of behavior change. Netherlands Trial Register (NTR3102).

Influence of Delivery Strategy on Message-Processing Mechanisms and Future Adherence to a Dutch Computer-Tailored Smoking Cessation Intervention

PubMed Central

Crutzen, Rik; Bolman, Catherine; Muris, Jean; de Vries, Hein

2013-01-01

Background Smoking tobacco is one of the most preventable causes of illness and death. Web-based tailored smoking cessation interventions have shown to be effective. Although these interventions have the potential to reach a large number of smokers, they often face high attrition rates, especially among lower educated smokers. A possible reason for the high attrition rates in the latter group is that computer-tailored smoking cessation interventions may not be attractive enough as they are mainly text-based. Video-based messages might be more effective in attracting attention and stimulating comprehension in people with a lower educational level and could therefore reduce attrition rates. Objective The objective of the present study was to investigate whether differences exist in message-processing mechanisms (attention, comprehension, self-reference, appreciation, processing) and future adherence (intention to visit/use the website again, recommend the website to others), according to delivery strategy (video or text based messages) and educational level, to a Dutch computer-tailored smoking cessation program. Methods Smokers who were motivated to quit within the following 6 months and who were aged over 16 were included in the program. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions (video/text CT). The sample was stratified into 2 categories: lower and higher educated participants. In total, 139 participants completed the first session of the web-based tailored intervention and were subsequently asked to fill out a questionnaire assessing message-processing mechanisms and future adherence. ANOVAs and regression analyses were conducted to investigate the differences in message-processing mechanisms and future adherence with regard to delivery strategy and education. Results No interaction effects were found between delivery strategy (video vs text) and educational level on message-processing mechanisms and future adherence. Delivery strategy had no effect on future adherence and processing mechanisms. However, in both groups results indicated that lower educated participants showed higher attention (F 1,138=3.97; P=.05) and processing levels (F 1,138=4.58; P=.04). Results revealed also that lower educated participants were more inclined to visit the computer-tailored intervention website again (F 1,138=4.43; P=.04). Conclusions Computer-tailored programs have the potential to positively influence lower educated groups as they might be more involved in the computer-tailored intervention than higher educated smokers. Longitudinal studies with a larger sample are needed to gain more insight into the role of delivery strategy in tailored information and to investigate whether the intention to visit the intervention website again results in the ultimate goal of behavior change. Trial Registration Netherlands Trial Register (NTR3102). PMID:23388554

Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigmmore » to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.« less

The effect of future time perspective on delay discounting is mediated by the gray matter volume of vmPFC.

PubMed

Guo, Yiqun; Chen, Zhiyi; Feng, Tingyong

2017-07-28

Although several previous studies have shown that individuals' attitude towards time could affect their intertemporal preference, little is known about the neural basis of the relation between time perspective (TP) and delay discounting. In the present study, we quantified the gray matter (GM) cortical volume using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) methods to investigate the effect of TP on delay discounting (DD) across two independent samples. For group 1 (102 healthy college students; 46 male; 20.40 ± 1.87 years), behavioral results showed that only Future TP was a significant predictor of DD, and higher scores on Future TP were related to lower discounting rates. Whole-brain analysis revealed that steeper discounting correlated with greater GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral part of posterior cingulate cortex (vPCC). Also, GM volume of a cluster in the vmPFC was correlated with Future TP. Interestingly, there was an overlapping region in vmPFC that was correlated with both DD and Future TP. Region-of-interest analysis further indicated that the overlapping region of vmPFC played a partially mediating role in the relation between Future TP and DD in the other independent dataset (Group 2, 36 healthy college students; 14 male; 20.18±1.80 years). Taken together, our results provide a new perspective from neural basis for explaining the relation between DD and future TP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang

2017-04-01

Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.

Systematic Review of Couple-Based HIV Intervention and Prevention Studies: Advantages, Gaps, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

El-Bassel, Nabila

2015-01-01

We conducted a systematic review of couple-based HIV biobehavioral (skills-building, VCT, and adherence) and biomedical (ART, circumcision) prevention and intervention studies designed to reduce sexual-and drug-risk behaviors and HIV transmission and acquisition. Of the 11,162 papers identified in the search, 93 peer-reviewed papers met the inclusion criteria and yielded a total of 33 studies conducted globally. Biobehavioral couple-based prevention and intervention studies have been efficacious in reducing sexual- and drug-risk behaviors, increasing access to HIV testing and care, and improving adherence. Biomedical couple-based studies were found to reduce HIV incidence among HIV-negative sex partners and viral load among HIV-positive partners. Despite much progress, couple-based HIV prevention and intervention studies remain limited; a number of methodological gaps exist and studies focusing on MSM, people who inject drugs, and sex workers are scarce. PMID:24980246

A Judicial Presentation of Evidence of a Student Culture of "Dealing"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Nathan B.; Lawrenz, Frances; Haroldson, Rachelle

2009-01-01

This study uses a new-to-educational-research methodology, based on the legal process, to build a case that U.S. students have been largely ignored in discussion and planning for their own, presumed futures. A variety of evidence, from two large and distinct data bases, is drawn together to show: (1) students perceive their classrooms in ways…

The Effect of Inquiry-Based Learning Experiences on Adolescents' Science-Related Career Aspiration in the Finnish Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Jingoo; Keinonen, Tuula

2017-01-01

Much research has been conducted to investigate the effects of inquiry-based learning on students' attitude towards science and future involvement in the science field, but few of them conducted in-depth studies including young learners' socio-cognitive background to explore mechanisms which explain how inquiry experiences influence on career…

Student Teachers' Views of Practicums (Teacher Training Placements) in Turkish and English Contexts: A Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busher, Hugh; Gündüz, Müge; Cakmak, Melek; Lawson, Tony

2015-01-01

How student teachers experience their transformation into serving teachers in the liminal social spaces of the school-based practicum (teaching practice) is of key importance to them, their future students and their educators. The practicum is a challenging experience for student teachers, even with help from university and school-based mentors,…

Beyond Changing Culture in Small High Schools: Reform Models and Changing Instruction with Project-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ravitz, Jason

2010-01-01

This study describes the status of small school reforms in U.S. high schools and contemplates their future. It asks how cultural and instructional reforms differ across school reform types. Analyses focus on indicators of teacher and student culture as well as instructional reforms including project-based learning (PBL) and other inquiry-related…

The Effect of Self-Reported and Performance-Based Functional Impairment on Future Hospital Costs of Community-Dwelling Older Persons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reuben, David B.; Seeman, Teresa E.; Keeler, Emmett; Hayes, Risa P.; Bowman, Lee; Sewall, Ase; Hirsch, Susan H.; Wallace, Robert B.; Guralnik, Jack M.

2004-01-01

Purpose: We determined the prognostic value of self-reported and performance-based measurement of function, including functional transitions and combining different measurement approaches, on utilization. Design and Methods: Our cohort study used the 6th, 7th, and 10th waves of three sites of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies…

The Effect of Student-Directed Transition Planning with a Computer-Based Reading Support Program on the Self-Determination of Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Youngsun; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Palmer, Susan B.; Williams-Diehm, Kendra; Davies, Daniel K.; Stock, Steven E.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of student-directed transition planning instruction ("Whose Future Is It Anyway?" curriculum) with a computer-based reading support program ("Rocket Reader") on the self-determination, self-efficacy and outcome expectancy, and transition planning knowledge of students with disabilities. This…

Evaluation of Evidence-based Nursing Pain Management Practice.

PubMed

Song, Wenjia; Eaton, Linda H; Gordon, Debra B; Hoyle, Christine; Doorenbos, Ardith Z

2015-08-01

It is important to ensure that cancer pain management is based on the best evidence. Nursing evidence-based pain management can be examined through an evaluation of pain documentation. The aim of this study was to modify and test an evaluation tool for nursing cancer pain documentation, and describe the frequency and quality of nursing pain documentation in one oncology unit via the electronic medical system. A descriptive cross-sectional design was used for this study at an oncology unit of an academic medical center in the Pacific Northwest. Medical records were examined for 37 adults hospitalized during April and May 2013. Nursing pain documentations (N = 230) were reviewed using an evaluation tool modified from the Cancer Pain Practice Index to consist of 13 evidence-based pain management indicators, including pain assessment, care plan, pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions, monitoring and treatment of analgesic side effects, communication with physicians, and patient education. Individual nursing documentation was assigned a score ranging from 0 (worst possible) to 13 (best possible), to reflect the delivery of evidence-based pain management. The participating nurses documented 90% of the recommended evidence-based pain management indicators. Documentation was suboptimal for pain reassessment, pharmacologic interventions, and bowel regimen. The study results provide implications for enhancing electronic medical record design and highlight a need for future research to understand the reasons for suboptimal nursing documentation of cancer pain management. For the future use of the data evaluation tool, we recommend additional modifications according to study settings. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

PubMed

Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-02-01

According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

Future space transportation systems analysis study. Phase 1: Technical report, appendices. [a discussion of orbit transfer vehicles, lunar transport vehicles, space shuttles, and reusable spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The transportation mass requirements developed for each mission and transportation mode were based on vehicle systems sized to fit the exact needs of each mission (i.e. rubber vehicles). The parametric data used to derive the mass requirements for each mission and transportation mode are presented to enable accommodation of possible changes in mode options or payload definitions. The vehicle sizing and functional requirements used to derive the parametric data will form the basis for conceptual configurations of the transportation elements in a later phase of study. An investigation of the weight growth approach to future space transportation systems analysis is presented. Parameters which affect weight growth, past weight histories, and the current state of future space-mission design are discussed. Weight growth factors of from 10 percent to 41 percent were derived for various missions or vehicles.

Lessons Learned from the Evolution of an Academic Community Partnership: Creating "Patient Voices".

PubMed

Chambers, Meghan K; Ireland, Anna; D'Aniello, Rona; Lipnicki, Stephanie; Glick, Myron; Tumiel-Berhalter, Laurene

2015-01-01

Long-term partners received federal funding to develop the Patient Voices Network, a partnership of safety-net family practices and their patients to develop health improvement strategies. The scope and structure of the newly funded grant presented unexpected challenges that threatened the future of the partnership.Purpose of Article: To present a case study of the evolution of an existing partnership and offer lessons learned along with recommendations for future partnerships. Federal funding formalized the partnership in a way that required looking at it through a new lens. Leadership, programmatic, personnel, and financial challenges emerged. Short-term and long-term strategies were applied to address evolving needs. This case study demonstrates how federal funding raises the bar for academic-community partnerships and how challenges can be worked through, particularly if the partnership embraces the key principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR). Recommendations have been applied successfully to future initiatives.

Large scale systems : a study of computer organizations for air traffic control applications.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-06-01

Based on current sizing estimates and tracking algorithms, some computer organizations applicable to future air traffic control computing systems are described and assessed. Hardware and software problem areas are defined and solutions are outlined.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Dense home-based recordings reveal typical and atypical development of tense/aspect in a child with delayed language development.

PubMed

Chin, Iris; Goodwin, Matthew S; Vosoughi, Soroush; Roy, Deb; Naigles, Letitia R

2018-01-01

Studies investigating the development of tense/aspect in children with developmental disorders have focused on production frequency and/or relied on short spontaneous speech samples. How children with developmental disorders use future forms/constructions is also unknown. The current study expands this literature by examining frequency, consistency, and productivity of past, present, and future usage, using the Speechome Recorder, which enables collection of dense, longitudinal audio-video recordings of children's speech. Samples were collected longitudinally in a child who was previously diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, but at the time of the study exhibited only language delay [Audrey], and a typically developing child [Cleo]. While Audrey was comparable to Cleo in frequency and productivity of tense/aspect use, she was atypical in her consistency and production of an unattested future form. Examining additional measures of densely collected speech samples may reveal subtle atypicalities that are missed when relying on only few typical measures of acquisition.

Effectiveness guidance document (EGD) for Chinese medicine trials: a consensus document

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for more Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) on Chinese medicine (CM) to inform clinical and policy decision-making. This document aims to provide consensus advice for the design of CER trials on CM for researchers. It broadly aims to ensure more adequate design and optimal use of resources in generating evidence for CM to inform stakeholder decision-making. Methods The Effectiveness Guidance Document (EGD) development was based on multiple consensus procedures (survey, written Delphi rounds, interactive consensus workshop, international expert review). To balance aspects of internal and external validity, multiple stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, researchers and payers were involved in creating this document. Results Recommendations were developed for “using available data” and “future clinical studies”. The recommendations for future trials focus on randomized trials and cover the following areas: designing CER studies, treatments, expertise and setting, outcomes, study design and statistical analyses, economic evaluation, and publication. Conclusion The present EGD provides the first systematic methodological guidance for future CER trials on CM and can be applied to single or multi-component treatments. While CONSORT statements provide guidelines for reporting studies, EGDs provide recommendations for the design of future studies and can contribute to a more strategic use of limited research resources, as well as greater consistency in trial design. PMID:24885146

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

PubMed

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

2016-04-01

In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Fracture Prediction by Computed Tomography and Finite Element Analysis: Current and Future Perspectives.

PubMed

Johannesdottir, Fjola; Allaire, Brett; Bouxsein, Mary L

2018-05-30

This review critiques the ability of CT-based methods to predict incident hip and vertebral fractures. CT-based techniques with concurrent calibration all show strong associations with incident hip and vertebral fracture, predicting hip and vertebral fractures as well as, and sometimes better than, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry areal biomass density (DXA aBMD). There is growing evidence for use of routine CT scans for bone health assessment. CT-based techniques provide a robust approach for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture prediction. It remains to be seen if further technical advances will improve fracture prediction compared to DXA aBMD. Future work should include more standardization in CT analyses, establishment of treatment intervention thresholds, and more studies to determine whether routine CT scans can be efficiently used to expand the number of individuals who undergo evaluation for fracture risk.

The first FDA marketing authorizations of next-generation sequencing technology and tests: challenges, solutions and impact for future assays.

PubMed

Bijwaard, Karen; Dickey, Jennifer S; Kelm, Kellie; Težak, Živana

2015-01-01

The rapid emergence and clinical translation of novel high-throughput sequencing technologies created a need to clarify the regulatory pathway for the evaluation and authorization of these unique technologies. Recently, the US FDA authorized for marketing four next generation sequencing (NGS)-based diagnostic devices which consisted of two heritable disease-specific assays, library preparation reagents and a NGS platform that are intended for human germline targeted sequencing from whole blood. These first authorizations can serve as a case study in how different types of NGS-based technology are reviewed by the FDA. In this manuscript we describe challenges associated with the evaluation of these novel technologies and provide an overview of what was reviewed. Besides making validated NGS-based devices available for in vitro diagnostic use, these first authorizations create a regulatory path for similar future instruments and assays.

Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task.

PubMed

Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

2013-01-16

Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time.

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Drummond, Mark A.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task

PubMed Central

Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

2013-01-01

Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time. PMID:23325347

Alternative futures of proactive tools for a citizen's own wellbeing.

PubMed

Meristö, Tarja; Tuohimaa, Hanna; Leppimäki, Sami; Laitinen, Jukka

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to create the basis for a vision of an empowered citizen who can control his/her life, especially in relation to health and personal wellbeing with the use of new ICT-tools. The methods used in the study are based on futures studies, especially on scenario methodology. Alternative future paths, i.e. scenarios are constructed using the scenario filter model that we have developed, with market, technology and society perspectives. Scenarios not resulting in the vision are described in what if - analysis as well. The scenarios are combined with Viherä's model on citizen's skills, access and motivation to use new ICT-tools. The concept COPER is targeted to different user groups with an adaptable user interface and its development is user centered. We will consider the effects and the appropriate elements of COPER in every scenario, as well as the possibilities and challenges nursing will confront. As a result we will gain information of the characteristic of COPER that advance the vision. For the future development of COPER the alternative scenarios give the basis for flexibility planning, too.

Is news media related to civic engagement? The effects of interest in and discussions about the news media on current and future civic engagement of adolescents.

PubMed

Erentaitė, Rasa; Žukauskienė, Rita; Beyers, Wim; Pilkauskaitė-Valickienė, Rasa

2012-06-01

This study explored whether discussions about the media, when positively linked to interest in the news media, were related to adolescents' current and future civic engagement. A sample of 2638 adolescents (age M = 17, SD = 1.2), who participated in a school-based study on positive socialization, completed self-report measures on interest in the news media and discussions about the media with parents and friends. Current civic engagement was measured by involvement in volunteering and civic commitments. Future civic engagement was measured by intentions to participate in civic activities in the future. The results showed that more interpersonal discussions about the media and higher interest in the news media both predicted higher civic engagement. Positive links between discussions about the media and current civic engagement were partly mediated by interest in the news media. In addition, interest in the news media together with current civic engagement fully mediated a positive link between discussions about the media and future civic engagement. Moderating effects of gender were observed, with discussions about the media a better predictor of boys' interest in the news media, and current civic engagement a better predictor of girls' future civic engagement. Copyright © 2011 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lubrication of space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusaro, Robert L.

1994-01-01

NASA has many high-technology programs plannned for the future, such as the space station, Mission to Planet Earth (a series of Earth-observing satellites), space telescopes, and planetary orbiters. These missions will involve advanced mechanical moving components, space mechanisms that will need wear protection and lubrication. The tribology practices used in space today are primarily based on a technology that is more than 20 years old. The question is the following: Is this technology base good enough to meet the needs of these future long-duration NASA missions? This paper examines NASA's future space missions, how mechanisms are currently lubricated, some of the mechanism and tribology challenges that may be encountered in future missions, and some potential solutions to these future challenges.

Wearable Internet of Things - from human activity tracking to clinical integration.

PubMed

Kumari, Poonam; Lopez-Benitez, Miguel; Gyu Myoung Lee; Tae-Seong Kim; Minhas, Atul S

2017-07-01

Wearable devices for human activity tracking have been emerging rapidly. Most of them are capable of sending health statistics to smartphones, smartwatches or smart bands. However, they only provide the data for individual analysis and their data is not integrated into clinical practice. Leveraging on the Internet of Things (IoT), edge and cloud computing technologies, we propose an architecture which is capable of providing cloud based clinical services using human activity data. Such services could supplement the shortage of staff in primary healthcare centers thereby reducing the burden on healthcare service providers. The enormous amount of data created from such services could also be utilized for planning future therapies by studying recovery cycles of existing patients. We provide a prototype based on our architecture and discuss its salient features. We also provide use cases of our system in personalized and home based healthcare services. We propose an International Telecommunication Union based standardization (ITU-T) for our design and discuss future directions in wearable IoT.

The Emergence of Episodic Future Thinking in Humans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atance, C.M.; O'Neill, D.K.

2005-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the construct of episodic future thinking. We have previously defined episodic future thinking as the ability to project oneself into the future to pre-experience an event (Atance & O'Neill, 2001). We distinguish this type of thinking about the future from that which is largely based on a script of how an event routinely…

75 FR 31826 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-04

... financial products such as securities index options, index futures, and options on index futures to be... futures, options on S&P 500 futures or any other instrument that tracks the performance of or is based on... 24.4.05(A). These definitions would allow financial products such as ETF options, index futures...

Developing Intuition: The Key to Creative Futures Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southern, Stephen; Domzalski, Suzanne

Futures research involves speculation about alternative developments based upon existing data and potential choices. Effective futures research requires creativity in scientific practice rather than an overemphasis on reason. In discussing the important role of intuition in futures research, characteristics of creative scientists are reviewed and…