Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Introduction Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. Method This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. Results The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. Conclusion To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information technology. PMID:28566991

Twenty-Six Not-So-Easy Pieces.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poggenpohl, Sharon Helmer

1998-01-01

Examines the challenge and future of language, typography, and technology in various juxtapositions. Compares book and screen, typographic history and future. Discusses need for language reform and user studies, and examines technology's impact on human communication. Uses an "abecedary" order to make unexpected connections and provide…

Assessment of minimally invasive surgical skills of pre-medical students: What can we learn from future learners?

PubMed

Borahay, Mostafa A; Jackson, Mary; Tapısız, Omer L; Lyons, Elizabeth; Patel, Pooja R; Nassar, Ramsey; Kılıç, Gökhan Sami

2014-01-01

Knowledge of baseline laparoscopic and robotic surgical skills of future learners is essential to develop teaching strategies that best fit them. The objectives of this study are to determine baseline laparoscopic and robotic skills of high school and college students and compare them to those of current obstetrics and gynecology residents. A cross-sectional (Class II-2) pilot study. Laparoscopic and robotic surgical skills of college and high (secondary) school students were evaluated using simulators and compared to those of obstetrics and gynecology residents. In addition, questionnaire data were collected regarding video game playing and computer use. A total of 17 students, both high school (n=9) and college (n=8), in addition to 11 residents, completed the study. Overall, students performed comparably to the residents in simple exercises (p>.05). However, students took significantly longer time to complete complex exercises (p=.001). Finally, students played video games significantly more than residents (p<.001). Future learners may have a different background skill set. This difference may be related to improved hand-eye coordination, possibly due to playing video games. The results of this pilot study should spur more research into surgical teaching strategies.

The Effects of Spatial Contextual Familiarity on Remembered Scenes, Episodic Memories, and Imagined Future Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robin, Jessica; Moscovitch, Morris

2014-01-01

Several recent studies have explored the effect of contextual familiarity on remembered and imagined events. The aim of this study was to examine the extent of this effect by comparing the effect of cuing spatial memories, episodic memories, and imagined future events with spatial contextual cues of varying levels of familiarity. We used…

Motivated for Leisure in the Future: A Person-Centred Longitudinal Study in the Lowest Level of Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Veen, Ineke; Peetsma, Thea

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200 12-13 year old students attending the lowest level…

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

The future of the New Zealand plastic surgery workforce.

PubMed

Adams, Brandon M; Klaassen, Michael F; Tan, Swee T

2013-04-05

The New Zealand (NZ) plastic and reconstructive surgery (PRS) workforce provides reconstructive plastic surgery (RPS) public services from six centres. There has been little analysis on whether the workforce is adequate to meet the needs of the NZ population currently or in the future. This study analysed the current workforce, its distribution and future requirements. PRS manpower data, workforce activities, population statistics, and population modelling were analysed to determine current needs and predict future needs for the PRS workforce. The NZ PRS workforce is compared with international benchmarks. Regional variation of the workforce was analysed with respect to the population's access to PRS services. Future supply of specialist plastic surgeons is analysed. NZ has a lower number of plastic surgeons per capita than comparable countries. The current NZ PRS workforce is mal-distributed. Areas of current and emerging future need are identified. The current workforce mal-distribution will worsen with future population growth and distribution. Up to 60% of the NZ population will be at risk of inadequate access to PRS services by 2027. Development of PRS services must be coordinated to ensure that equitable and sustainable services are available throughout NZ. Strategies for ensuring satisfactory future workforce are discussed.

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents☆

PubMed Central

Marotta, Phillip L.; Voisin, Dexter R.

2017-01-01

Objective Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. Methods A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Results Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Conclusions Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation. PMID:28974824

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents.

PubMed

Marotta, Phillip L; Voisin, Dexter R

2017-04-01

Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation.

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 3: Cross impact between the 1990 market and the air physical distribution systems, book 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burby, R. J.; Kuhlman, W. H.

1978-01-01

Book 2 of this volume is divided into the following sections: (1) commodities and system networks; (2) future mode choice decisions and commodity air eligibility; (3) comparative cargo transportation costs - air, truck, rail and water; (4) elasticities of demand; (5) operating cost; (6) operating profit, rate making, and returns; (7) importance of rate and service on future aircraft; (8) potential market demand for new aircraft; (9) scenario of events affecting system/market growth; and (10) future study and technology requirements.

Comparison of Subjective Wellbeing and Positive Future Expectations in Between Working and Nonworking Adolescents in Turkey.

PubMed

Karaca, Semra; Karakoc, Ayse; Bingol, Fadime; Eren, Nurhan; Andsoy, Isil Isik

2016-02-01

Wellbeing is one's evaluation and judgment of one's life. It consists of 3 dimensions: positive affectivity, negative affectivity, and life satisfaction. This study aimed to compare the subjective wellbeing and positive future expectations between working and nonworking adolescents. The study was designed as descriptive and comparative. The study sample consisted of 420 working and 482 nonworking adolescents (n = 902) aged 15 - 20 years, who were randomly recruited from two occupational education centers in Istanbul, Turkey and two high schools (formal educations) in the same district. Adolescent subjective wellbeing scale (ASWS) total mean (SD) scores for working adolescents and nonworking adolescents were 48.76 (9.50) and 49.72 (8.01), respectively. In addition, positive future expectations scale (PFES) total mean (SD) scores for working adolescents and nonworking adolescents were 18.71 (4.50) and 19.06 (3.49), respectively. In this study, no significant difference was found between the general wellbeing (scale total median score) scores of the working and nonworking adolescent groups (Z = 1.01, P = 0.315). However, significant differences were found in the family relations satisfaction (Z = 3.23, P = 0.002) and relations with significant others (Z = 2.85, P = 0.004) subscales of the ASWS. A positive relationship was found between adolescent subjective wellbeing and positive future expectations. It was found that nonworking adolescents scored higher on the dimensions of "family relations" and "relations with significant others" of subjective wellbeing compared to those dimensions in working adolescents.

Loneliness and Suicidal Risk in Young Adults: Does Believing in a Changeable Future Help Minimize Suicidal Risk Among the Lonely?

PubMed

Chang, Edward C; Wan, Liangqiu; Li, Pengzi; Guo, Yuncheng; He, Jiaying; Gu, Yu; Wang, Yingjie; Li, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Zhan; Sun, Yingrui; Batterbee, Casey N-H; Chang, Olivia D; Lucas, Abigael G; Hirsch, Jameson K

2017-07-04

This study examined loneliness and future orientation as predictors of suicidal risk, namely, depressive symptoms and suicide ideation, in a sample of 228 college students (54 males and 174 females). Results of regression analyses indicated that loneliness was a significant predictor of both indices of suicidal risk. The inclusion of future orientation was found to significantly augment the prediction model of both depressive symptoms and suicide ideation, even after accounting for loneliness. Noteworthy, beyond loneliness and future orientation, the Loneliness × Future Orientation interaction term was found to further augment both prediction models of suicidal risk. Consistent with the notion that future orientation is an important buffer of suicidal risk, among lonely students, those with high future orientation, compared to low future orientation, were found to report significantly lower levels of depressive symptoms and suicide ideation. Some implications of the present findings for studying both risk and protective factors associated with suicidal risk in young adults are discussed.

Very Early Language Skills of Fifth-Grade Poor Comprehenders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Justice, Laura; Mashburn, Andrew; Petscher, Yaacov

2013-01-01

This study tested the theory that future poor comprehenders would show modest but pervasive deficits in both language comprehension and production during early childhood as compared with future poor decoders and typical readers. Using an existing database (NICHD ECCRN), fifth-grade students were identified as having poor comprehension skills…

Future Teachers' Spatial Thinking Skills and Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Euikyung E.; Milson, Andrew J.; Smith, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

The spatial thinking skills and attitudes of geography majors were compared with those of future teachers majoring in elementary education and secondary social studies education. Scores were obtained for each group on two measures: the spatial skills test and the attitude toward spatial thinking inventory. Mean differences were examined based on…

Attitudes toward Business Ethics and Degree of Opinion Leadership of Future Managers In the United States, Finland, and China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comegys, Charles; Vaisanen, Jaani; Lupton, Robert A.; Rawlinson, David R.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the attitudes towards business ethics of future managers in three countries: the United State, Finland, and China, and determine whether business ethics attitudes differed by the student's major, class year, GPA, gender, age, and the number of ethics and religious studies courses completed. Additionally the…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Time in the eye of the beholder: Gaze position reveals spatial-temporal associations during encoding and memory retrieval of future and past.

PubMed

Martarelli, Corinna S; Mast, Fred W; Hartmann, Matthias

2017-01-01

Time is grounded in various ways, and previous studies point to a "mental time line" with past associated with the left, and future with the right side. In this study, we investigated whether spontaneous eye movements on a blank screen would follow a mental timeline during encoding, free recall, and recognition of past and future items. In all three stages of processing, gaze position was more rightward during future items compared to past items. Moreover, horizontal gaze position during encoding predicted horizontal gaze position during free recall and recognition. We conclude that mental time line and the stored gaze position during encoding assist memory retrieval of past versus future items. Our findings highlight the spatial nature of temporal representations.

Tangible User Interfaces and Contrasting Cases as a Preparation for Future Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bertrand; Blikstein, Paulo

2018-04-01

In this paper, we describe an experiment that compared the use of a Tangible User Interface (physical objects augmented with digital information) and a set of Contrasting Cases as a preparation for future learning. We carried out an experiment (N = 40) with a 2 × 2 design: the first factor compared traditional instruction ("Tell & Practice") with a constructivist activity designed using the Preparation for Future Learning framework (PFL). The second factor contrasted state-of-the-art PFL learning activity (i.e., students studying Contrasting Cases) with an interactive tabletop featuring digitally enhanced manipulatives. In agreement with prior work, we found that dyads of students who followed the PFL activity achieved significantly higher learning gains compared to their peers who followed a traditional "Tell & Practice" instruction (large effect size). A similar effect was found in favor of the interactive tabletop compared to the Contrasting Cases (small-to-moderate effect size). We discuss implications for designing socio-constructivist activities using new computer interfaces.

Memory underpinnings of future intentions: Would you like to see the sequel?

PubMed

Stragà, Marta; Del Missier, Fabio; Marcatto, Francesco; Ferrante, Donatella

2017-01-01

In two studies, we investigated the memory underpinnings of future intentions related to past hedonic experiences. Preceding research did not make clear whether the specific memory processes supporting the expression of intentions about the future involve global judgments of the past experience (general affective evaluations formed on-line) or judgments derived from the episodic recollection of the past. Adapting a correlational paradigm previously employed to study future intentions, and applying it to the experience of watching a movie, we comparatively tested the influence of global retrospective evaluations vs. episodic-derived evaluations on future intentions. In Study 1, in which the intentions involved a future experience that was very similar to an overall past one (e.g., seeing the movie sequel), the findings showed that participants relied only on global judgments to form future intentions. In Study 2, in which the global judgment on the past was less diagnostic because the future intentions referred to specific parts of the past experience (e.g., watching a movie centered on a minor character in the previously seen movie), the results indicated that relevant episodic memories provided an essential contribution to the prediction of future intentions. These findings are in agreement with the predictions of the accessibility-diagnosticity framework and they show that global judgments and episodic memories of a past experience contribute differentially to diverse kinds of future intentions.

Memory underpinnings of future intentions: Would you like to see the sequel?

PubMed Central

Marcatto, Francesco; Ferrante, Donatella

2017-01-01

In two studies, we investigated the memory underpinnings of future intentions related to past hedonic experiences. Preceding research did not make clear whether the specific memory processes supporting the expression of intentions about the future involve global judgments of the past experience (general affective evaluations formed on-line) or judgments derived from the episodic recollection of the past. Adapting a correlational paradigm previously employed to study future intentions, and applying it to the experience of watching a movie, we comparatively tested the influence of global retrospective evaluations vs. episodic-derived evaluations on future intentions. In Study 1, in which the intentions involved a future experience that was very similar to an overall past one (e.g., seeing the movie sequel), the findings showed that participants relied only on global judgments to form future intentions. In Study 2, in which the global judgment on the past was less diagnostic because the future intentions referred to specific parts of the past experience (e.g., watching a movie centered on a minor character in the previously seen movie), the results indicated that relevant episodic memories provided an essential contribution to the prediction of future intentions. These findings are in agreement with the predictions of the accessibility-diagnosticity framework and they show that global judgments and episodic memories of a past experience contribute differentially to diverse kinds of future intentions. PMID:28448567

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Multi-path transportation futures study: Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

This PowerPoint briefing provides documentation and details for Phase 1 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2006, was a scoping study, aimed at identifying key analytic issues and constructing a study design. The Phase 1 analysis included an evaluation of several pathways and scenarios; however, these analyses were limited in number and scope and were designed to be preliminary.

A Comparative Study of Strategic HRD Approaches for Workforce Planning in the Tourism Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartlett, Kenneth; Johnson, Karen; Schneider, Ingrid E.

2006-01-01

This study compares the outcomes of two often used approaches for strategic HRD planning. Using methods framed within a strategic HRD planning framework the outcomes of a qualitative primary data approach are examined against quantitative labor market projections in a study of the future Minnesota tourism workforce. Results show each planning…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Aggression and Risk of Future Violence in Forensic Psychiatric Patients with and without Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selenius, Heidi; Hellstrom, Ake; Belfrage, Henrik

2011-01-01

Dyslexia does not cause criminal behaviour, but it may worsen aggressive behaviour tendencies. In this study, aggressive behaviour and risk of future violence were compared between forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia. Dyslexia was assessed using the Swedish phonological processing battery "The Pigeon". The patients…

Future Rice Is Discounted Less Steeply than Future Money in Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takahashi, Masaharu; Masataka, Nobuo; Malaivijitnond, Suchinda; Wongsiri, Siriwat

2008-01-01

There is evidence that people discount food more steeply than money, suggesting that primary or consumable reinforcers lose value quickly, whereas conditioned or nonconsumable reinforcers lose value slowly. In the present study, discounting rates of baht (unstable currency) and rice (preservable food) were compared during a period of unstable…

Pedagogical Knowledge of Numbers and Operations: An International Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Araceli; Rico-Romero, Luis; Gómez Guzmán, Pedro

2015-01-01

Introduction: In this paper, Spanish future primary teachers' pedagogical knowledge of numbers and operation, as revealed through their results in the TEDS-M ("Teacher Education and Development Study in Mathematics"), is compared with that of two other groups. The first group are the future primary teachers of other OECD countries that…

What differentiates episodic future thinking from complex scene imagery?

PubMed

de Vito, Stefania; Gamboz, Nadia; Brandimonte, Maria A

2012-06-01

We investigated the contributions of familiarity of setting, self-relevance and self-projection in time to episodic future thinking. The role of familiarity of setting was assessed, in Experiment 1, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical future events supposed to occur in unfamiliar settings. The role of self-relevance was assessed, in Experiment 2, by comparing episodic future thoughts to future events involving familiar others. The role of self-projection in time was assessed, in both Experiments, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical events that were not temporal in nature. Results indicated that episodic future thoughts were more clearly represented than autobiographical future events occurring in unfamiliar setting and future events involving familiar others. Our results also revealed that episodic future thoughts were indistinguishable from autobiographical atemporal events with respect to both subjective and objective detail ratings. These results suggest that future and atemporal events are mentally represented in a similar way. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2. Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Bain, Richard; Chapman, Jamie

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, Donna; Belzer, David B.; Hadley, Stanton W.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Ela, Erik; Hein, Jeff

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Future orientation, school contexts, and problem behaviors: a multilevel study.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T

2013-01-01

The association between future orientation and problem behaviors has received extensive empirical attention; however, previous work has not considered school contextual influences on this link. Using a sample of N = 9,163 9th to 12th graders (51.0 % females) from N = 85 high schools of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the present study examined the independent and interactive effects of adolescent future orientation and school contexts (school size, school location, school SES, school future orientation climate) on problem behaviors. Results provided evidence that adolescent future orientation was associated independently and negatively with problem behaviors. In addition, adolescents from large-size schools reported higher levels of problem behaviors than their age mates from small-size schools, controlling for individual-level covariates. Furthermore, an interaction effect between adolescent future orientation and school future orientation climate was found, suggesting influences of school future orientation climate on the link between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors as well as variations in effects of school future orientation climate across different levels of adolescent future orientation. Specifically, the negative association between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors was stronger at schools with a more positive climate of future orientation, whereas school future orientation climate had a significant and unexpectedly positive relationship with problem behaviors for adolescents with low levels of future orientation. Findings implicate the importance of comparing how the future orientation-problem behaviors link varies across different ecological contexts and the need to understand influences of school climate on problem behaviors in light of differences in psychological processes among adolescents.

Comparison of Subjective Wellbeing and Positive Future Expectations in Between Working and Nonworking Adolescents in Turkey

PubMed Central

Karaca, Semra; Karakoc, Ayse; Bingol, Fadime; Eren, Nurhan; Andsoy, Isil Isik

2016-01-01

Background: Wellbeing is one’s evaluation and judgment of one’s life. It consists of 3 dimensions: positive affectivity, negative affectivity, and life satisfaction. Objectives: This study aimed to compare the subjective wellbeing and positive future expectations between working and nonworking adolescents. Patients and Methods: The study was designed as descriptive and comparative. The study sample consisted of 420 working and 482 nonworking adolescents (n = 902) aged 15 - 20 years, who were randomly recruited from two occupational education centers in Istanbul, Turkey and two high schools (formal educations) in the same district. Results: Adolescent subjective wellbeing scale (ASWS) total mean (SD) scores for working adolescents and nonworking adolescents were 48.76 (9.50) and 49.72 (8.01), respectively. In addition, positive future expectations scale (PFES) total mean (SD) scores for working adolescents and nonworking adolescents were 18.71 (4.50) and 19.06 (3.49), respectively. In this study, no significant difference was found between the general wellbeing (scale total median score) scores of the working and nonworking adolescent groups (Z = 1.01, P = 0.315). However, significant differences were found in the family relations satisfaction (Z = 3.23, P = 0.002) and relations with significant others (Z = 2.85, P = 0.004) subscales of the ASWS. Conclusions: A positive relationship was found between adolescent subjective wellbeing and positive future expectations. It was found that nonworking adolescents scored higher on the dimensions of “family relations” and “relations with significant others” of subjective wellbeing compared to those dimensions in working adolescents. PMID:27195141

A Pilot Study of Women’s Affective Responses to Common and Uncommon Forms of Aerobic Exercise

PubMed Central

Stevens, Courtney J.; Smith, Jane Ellen; Bryan, Angela D.

2015-01-01

Objective To test the extent to which participants exposed to an uncommon versus common exercise stimulus would result in more favourable affect at post task. Design Experimental design. Participants, (N = 120) American women aged 18–45 years, were randomly assigned to complete 30-minutes of either the uncommon (HOOP; n = 58) or common (WALK; n = 62) exercise stimulus. Main Outcome Measures Self-reported affect and intentions for future exercise were measured before and after the 30-minute exercise bout. Results Analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) were run to compare post-task affect across the HOOP and WALK conditions. At post-task, participants assigned to HOOP reported more positively valenced affect, higher ratings of positive activated affect, lower ratings of negative deactivated affect, and stronger intentions for future aerobic exercise compared to participants assigned to WALK. Conclusions Participants who completed an uncommon bout of aerobic exercise (HOOP) reported more favourable affect post-exercise, as well as stronger intentions for future exercise, compared to participants who completed a common bout of aerobic exercise (WALK). Future work using a longitudinal design is needed to understand the relationships between familiarity with an exercise stimulus, affective responses to exercise, motivation for future exercise behaviour, and exercise maintenance over time. PMID:26394246

Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottrell, Paul Edward

There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

Increased risk of snoring and adenotonsillectomy in children referred for tympanostomy tube insertion.

PubMed

Tauman, Riva; Derowe, Ari; Ophir, Orna; Greenfeld, Michal; Sivan, Yakov

2010-02-01

Eustachian tube dysfunction and sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) share common pathophysiologic mechanisms. Our objective was to investigate whether children referred for isolated TTI (tympanostomy tube insertion) are at increased risk for snoring and upper airway procedures. Telephone interviews to parents of children who underwent isolated TTI and to age- and gender-matched controls were conducted. Four hundred fifty-seven children were included in the study; 352 had isolated TTI (study group) and 105 children were controls. Twenty-two percent of children in the study group were reported to snore compared with 7.6% in the controls (p=0.001). Eighteen percent of children in the study group were reported to have undergone adenotonsillectomy compared with 4.8% in the controls (p=0.0005). Future SDB, i.e., either snoring or adenotonsillectomy following TTI, was found in 34% of children in the study group compared with 11% in the controls (p=0.0004). Children who underwent isolated TTI were at increased risk for future snoring (OR=3.4, CI: 1.6-7.2) and future adenotonsillectomy (OR=4.4, CI: 1.7-11.2). Children who undergo isolated TTI are at increased risk for snoring and for adenotonsillectomy. We suggest that these children be followed for symptoms of SDB on a scheduled basis to allow for early diagnosis and intervention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studying All Those "Tiny Little Tea Leaves": The Future of Microforms in a Complex Technological Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yerburgh, Mark R.

1987-01-01

Considers the future of microforms by surveying the history of their use in libraries; reviewing the literature about them; and comparing them with electronic databases, full text delivery, and laser disks. It is concluded that microforms will continue to be the primary providers of significant but rarely used retrospective materials. (EM)

Public Policy and Planning for Nurse Education and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldbaum, Eleanor G.; Levitt, Morris J.

This report focuses on nursing educational and practice issues that government officials may have to address in the near future. The report provides statistical information on nurses, compares statistics for white and black nurses, and recommends policies for the future. Data was gathered for the report during a three-year study of 5,175…

Performance of today’s dual energy CT and future multi energy CT in virtual non-contrast imaging and in iodine quantification: A simulation study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faby, Sebastian, E-mail: sebastian.faby@dkfz.de; Kuchenbecker, Stefan; Sawall, Stefan

2015-07-15

Purpose: To study the performance of different dual energy computed tomography (DECT) techniques, which are available today, and future multi energy CT (MECT) employing novel photon counting detectors in an image-based material decomposition task. Methods: The material decomposition performance of different energy-resolved CT acquisition techniques is assessed and compared in a simulation study of virtual non-contrast imaging and iodine quantification. The material-specific images are obtained via a statistically optimal image-based material decomposition. A projection-based maximum likelihood approach was used for comparison with the authors’ image-based method. The different dedicated dual energy CT techniques are simulated employing realistic noise models andmore » x-ray spectra. The authors compare dual source DECT with fast kV switching DECT and the dual layer sandwich detector DECT approach. Subsequent scanning and a subtraction method are studied as well. Further, the authors benchmark future MECT with novel photon counting detectors in a dedicated DECT application against the performance of today’s DECT using a realistic model. Additionally, possible dual source concepts employing photon counting detectors are studied. Results: The DECT comparison study shows that dual source DECT has the best performance, followed by the fast kV switching technique and the sandwich detector approach. Comparing DECT with future MECT, the authors found noticeable material image quality improvements for an ideal photon counting detector; however, a realistic detector model with multiple energy bins predicts a performance on the level of dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Employing photon counting detectors in dual source concepts can improve the performance again above the level of a single realistic photon counting detector and also above the level of dual source DECT. Conclusions: Substantial differences in the performance of today’s DECT approaches were found for the application of virtual non-contrast and iodine imaging. Future MECT with realistic photon counting detectors currently can only perform comparably to dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Dual source concepts with photon counting detectors could be a solution to this problem, promising a better performance.« less

The role of hunger state and dieting history in neural response to food cues: An event-related potential study.

PubMed

Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Kounios, John; Erickson, Brian; Berkowitz, Staci A; Lowe, Michael R

2017-10-01

A history of dieting to lose weight has been shown to be a robust predictor of future weight gain. A potential factor in propensity towards weight gain is the nature of people's reactions to the abundance of highly palatable food cues in the environment. Event Related Potentials (ERPs) have revealed differences in how the brain processes food cues between obese and normal weight individuals, as well as between restrained and unrestrained eaters. However, comparisons by weight status are not informative regarding whether differences predate or follow weight gain in obese individuals and restrained eating has not consistently been found to predict future weight gain. The present study compared ERP responses to food cues in non-obese historic dieters (HDs) to non-obese never dieters (NDs). HDs showed a blunted N1 component relative to NDs overall, and delayed N1 and P2 components compared to NDs in the hungry state, suggesting that early, perceptual processing of food cues differs between these groups, especially when food-deprived. HDs also showed a more hunger-dependent sustained ERP (LPP) compared to NDs. Future research should test ERP-based food cue responsivity as a mediator between dieting history and future weight gain to better identify those most at risk for weight gain as well as the nature of their vulnerability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empirical Examinations of Modifications and Adaptations to Evidence-Based Psychotherapies: Methodologies, Impact, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Stirman, Shannon Wiltsey; Gamarra, Jennifer; Bartlett, Brooke; Calloway, Amber; Gutner, Cassidy

2017-12-01

This review describes methods used to examine the modifications and adaptations to evidence-based psychological treatments (EBPTs), assesses what is known about the impact of modifications and adaptations to EBPTs, and makes recommendations for future research and clinical care. One hundred eight primary studies and three meta-analyses were identified. All studies examined planned adaptations, and many simultaneously investigated multiple types of adaptations. With the exception of studies on adding or removing specific EBPT elements, few studies compared adapted EBPTs to the original protocols. There was little evidence that adaptations in the studies were detrimental, but there was also limited consistent evidence that adapted protocols outperformed the original protocols, with the exception of adding components to EBPTs. Implications for EBPT delivery and future research are discussed.

Characteristics of intermittent smokers and their association with quit intentions in a sample of heavy-drinking HIV-infected men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Cioe, Patricia A; Gamarel, Kristi E; Pantalone, David W; Monti, Peter M; Mayer, Kenneth H; Kahler, Christopher W

2017-06-01

Intermittent smokers (ITS) have increased health risks compared with non-smokers (NS). Cigarette smoking remains prevalent among men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons living with HIV (PLWH), yet most studies in PLWH do not discriminate between daily smokers (DS) and ITS. In this study, the characteristics and quit intentions of ITS and DS are compared in a sample of heavy-drinking HIV-infected MSM. Of the 185 participants enrolled, 49.2% reported having smoked cigarettes in the past month; among those, 50.5% were DS, and 49.5% were ITS. Compared with DS, ITS were significantly more likely to be White and to have a college degree or higher. DS reported significantly higher average number of drinks per week compared with both ITS and NS. Compared with DS, ITS were significantly more likely to report future quit intentions (i.e., within 6 months or more) compared to no intentions at all; DS were more likely to report immediate quit intentions (i.e., within 30 days) compared to future quit intentions. Among heavy-drinking MSM living with HIV, intermittent smoking was associated with being White, college educated, and having future quit intentions. Considering that smoking in ITS may be less driven by nicotine dependence, tailored approaches to smoking cessation may be needed. Specifically, it may be important for interventions for ITS to address social and situational cues to smoke, including the influence of heavy alcohol use on smoking behaviors, and to provide information regarding the adverse health effects of even low-level smoking.

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I; Berg, Mark T; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008-2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting.

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I.; Berg, Mark T.; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Background Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. Objective To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008–2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Results Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Conclusions Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting. PMID:27466811

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

PubMed

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

Comparative Analysis of Student-Athletes with Learning Disabilities Academic Performance In and Out-of-Season

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hadfield, Jason Luke

2017-01-01

Academics and athletics have been studied in the past and will be studied more in the future. There has not been a study conducted on this topic related to students who have an IEP or 504 service agreement for learning disabilities. This study compared the in-season and out-of-season GPA of these groups of students as well as the supports they…

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

2015-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: Intersections between memory and decisions

PubMed Central

Schacter, Daniel L.; Benoit, Roland G.; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K.

2014-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one’s personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one’s personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. PMID:24373942

There Can Be Only One: An Analysis of Operational Artists in Vietnam

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-05

elevated, in the case of the Vietnam comparative study here, to the theater commander. 6...factors in identifying the true Operational Artist in the Vietnam case study as well as future conflicts. This is where the creativity that defines...difference between successful and unsuccessful Operational Artists in the sense this monograph proposes. This is a comparative case study between GEN Paul

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Momentary effects of exposure to prosmoking media on college students' future smoking risk.

PubMed

Shadel, William G; Martino, Steven C; Setodji, Claude; Scharf, Deborah

2012-07-01

This study used ecological momentary assessment to examine acute changes in college students' future smoking risk as a function of their exposure to prosmoking media (e.g., smoking in movies, paid advertising, point-of-sale displays). A sample of 135 college students ("ever" and "never" smokers) carried handheld computers for 21 days, recording their exposures to all forms of prosmoking media during the assessment period. They also responded to three investigator-initiated control prompts during each day of the assessment period (i.e., programmed to occur randomly). After each prosmoking media exposure and after each random control prompt they answered questions that measured their risk of future smoking. Responses between prosmoking media encounters were compared (within subjects) to responses made during random control prompts. Compliance with the study protocol was high, with participants responding to over 83% of all random prompts. Participants recorded nearly three encounters with prosmoking media each week. Results of linear mixed modeling indicated that all participants had higher future smoking risk following exposure to prosmoking media compared with control prompts (p < .05); this pattern of response did not differ between ever and never smokers (p = .769). Additional modeling of the variances around participants' risk of future smoking revealed that the response of never smokers to prosmoking media was significantly more variable than the response of ever smokers. Exposure to prosmoking media is associated with acute changes in future smoking risk, and never smokers and ever smokers respond differently to these exposures.

Future Missions to Study Signposts of Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Traub, Wesley A.

2011-01-01

This talk will focus on debris disks, will compare ground and space and will discuss 2 proposed missions, Exoplanetary Circumstellar Environments And Disk Explorer (EXCEDE) and Zodiac II. At least 2 missions have been proposed for disk imaging. The technology is largely in hand today. A small mission would do excellent disk science, and would test technology for a future large mission for planets.

Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

Economics and Comparative and International Education: Past, Present, Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolhuter, Charl

2017-01-01

The aim of this paper is to map this place of economics in the field of study of Comparative and International Education. Interrelationship between economy and education is concerned, two broad lines of enquiry lie within the scope of Comparative and International Education: economy as shaping force of education systems and the effect of education…

Use of Absolute and Comparative Performance Feedback in Absolute and Comparative Judgments and Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Don A.; Klein, William M. P.

2008-01-01

Which matters more--beliefs about absolute ability or ability relative to others? This study set out to compare the effects of such beliefs on satisfaction with performance, self-evaluations, and bets on future performance. In Experiment 1, undergraduate participants were told they had answered 20% correct, 80% correct, or were not given their…

Speech Output Technologies in Interventions for Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Schlosser, Ralf W; Koul, Rajinder K

2015-01-01

The purpose of this scoping review was to (a) map the research evidence on the effectiveness of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) interventions using speech output technologies (e.g., speech-generating devices, mobile technologies with AAC-specific applications, talking word processors) for individuals with autism spectrum disorders, (b) identify gaps in the existing literature, and (c) posit directions for future research. Outcomes related to speech, language, and communication were considered. A total of 48 studies (47 single case experimental designs and 1 randomized control trial) involving 187 individuals were included. Results were reviewed in terms of three study groupings: (a) studies that evaluated the effectiveness of treatment packages involving speech output, (b) studies comparing one treatment package with speech output to other AAC modalities, and (c) studies comparing the presence with the absence of speech output. The state of the evidence base is discussed and several directions for future research are posited.

Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion

PubMed Central

Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment. PMID:28979234

Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion.

PubMed

Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

Study of future world markets for agricultural aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.

1979-01-01

The future world market for US-manufactured agricultural aircraft was studied and the technology needs for foreign markets were identified. Special emphasis was placed on the developing country market, but the developed countries and the communist group were also included in the forecasts. Aircraft needs were projected to the year 2000 by a method which accounted for field size, crop production, treated area, productivity, and attrition of the fleet. A special scenario involving a significant shift toward aerial fertilization was also considered. An operations analysis was conducted to compare the relative application costs of various existing and hypothetical future aircraft. A case study was made of Colombia as an example of a developing country in which aviation is emerging as an important industry.

Effects of Consideration of Future Consequences and Temporal Framing on Acceptance of the HPV Vaccine Among Young Adults.

PubMed

Kim, Jarim; Nan, Xiaoli

2016-09-01

This study examines how individual difference in consideration of future consequences (CFC) and temporal framing (i.e., present- vs. future-oriented message) interact to influence the persuasive outcomes of a health message promoting human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among young adults. Results of an experiment (N = 416) showed a significant interaction effect of CFC and temporal framing on persuasion. The nature of the interaction suggested that individuals with high CFC generally were more persuaded by the present-oriented messages, compared to the future-oriented messages. On the other hand, those with low CFC responded similarly to the present- and future-oriented messages. Implications of the findings for HPV vaccination messaging are discussed.

Social ecological factors associated with future orientation of children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS.

PubMed

Lin, Xiuyun; Fang, Xiaoyi; Chi, Peilian; Heath, Melissa Allen; Li, Xiaoming; Chen, Wenrui

2016-07-01

From a social ecological perspective, this study examined the effects of stigma (societal level), trusting relationships with current caregivers (familial level), and self-esteem (individual level) on future orientation of children affected by HIV infection and AIDS. Comparing self-report data from 1221 children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS and 404 unaffected children, affected children reported greater stigma and lower future orientation, trusting relationships, and self-esteem. Based on structural equation modeling, stigma experiences, trusting relationships, and self-esteem had direct effects on future orientation, with self-esteem and trusting relationships partially mediating the effect of stigma experiences on children's future orientation. Implications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Asian Students' Conceptions of Future Civic Engagement: Comparing Clusters Using Person-Centered Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Joseph Kui Foon; Kennedy, Kerry J.

2015-01-01

Researchers in comparative education have suggested different ways in which their field of study can be enhanced by considering units of analysis at different levels rather than focusing on a single level such as the nation-state (Bray and Thomas, 1995; Torney-Purta and Barber, 2011). The study reported here seeks to contribute to this area of…

The hubris hypothesis: The downside of comparative optimism displays.

PubMed

Hoorens, Vera; Van Damme, Carolien; Helweg-Larsen, Marie; Sedikides, Constantine

2017-04-01

According to the hubris hypothesis, observers respond more unfavorably to individuals who express their positive self-views comparatively than to those who express their positive self-views non-comparatively, because observers infer that the former hold a more disparaging view of others and particularly of observers. Two experiments extended the hubris hypothesis in the domain of optimism. Observers attributed less warmth (but not less competence) to, and showed less interest in affiliating with, an individual displaying comparative optimism (the belief that one's future will be better than others' future) than with an individual displaying absolute optimism (the belief that one's future will be good). Observers responded differently to individuals displaying comparative versus absolute optimism, because they inferred that the former held a gloomier view of the observers' future. Consistent with previous research, observers still attributed more positive traits to a comparative or absolute optimist than to a comparative or absolute pessimist. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Improving prospective memory performance with future event simulation in traumatic brain injury patients.

PubMed

Mioni, Giovanna; Bertucci, Erica; Rosato, Antonella; Terrett, Gill; Rendell, Peter G; Zamuner, Massimo; Stablum, Franca

2017-06-01

Previous studies have shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients have difficulties with prospective memory (PM). Considering that PM is closely linked to independent living it is of primary interest to develop strategies that can improve PM performance in TBI patients. This study employed Virtual Week task as a measure of PM, and we included future event simulation to boost PM performance. Study 1 evaluated the efficacy of the strategy and investigated possible practice effects. Twenty-four healthy participants performed Virtual Week in a no strategy condition, and 24 healthy participants performed it in a mixed condition (no strategy - future event simulation). In Study 2, 18 TBI patients completed the mixed condition of Virtual Week and were compared with the 24 healthy controls who undertook the mixed condition of Virtual Week in Study 1. All participants also completed a neuropsychological evaluation to characterize the groups on level of cognitive functioning. Study 1 showed that participants in the future event simulation condition outperformed participants in the no strategy condition, and these results were not attributable to practice effects. Results of Study 2 showed that TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, but that future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. The future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. These studies showed the value of future event simulation strategy in improving PM performance in healthy participants as well as in TBI patients. TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, confirming prospective memory impairment in these patients. Participants in the future event simulation condition out-performed participants in the no strategy condition. Future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. Future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Systematic Review of Economic Models Used to Compare Techniques for Detecting Peripheral Arterial Disease.

PubMed

Moloney, Eoin; O'Connor, Joanne; Craig, Dawn; Robalino, Shannon; Chrysos, Alexandros; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Sims, Andrew; Stansby, Gerard; Wilkes, Scott; Allen, John

2018-04-23

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common condition, in which atherosclerotic narrowing in the arteries restricts blood supply to the leg muscles. In order to support future model-based economic evaluations comparing methods of diagnosis in this area, a systematic review of economic modelling studies was conducted. A systematic literature review was performed in June 2017 to identify model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic tests to detect PAD, with six individual databases searched. The review was conducted in accordance with the methods outlined in the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination's guidance for undertaking reviews in healthcare, and appropriate inclusion criteria were applied. Relevant data were extracted, and studies were quality assessed. Seven studies were included in the final review, all of which were published between 1995 and 2014. There was wide variation in the types of diagnostic test compared. The majority of the studies (six of seven) referenced the sources used to develop their model, and all studies stated and justified the structural assumptions. Reporting of the data within the included studies could have been improved. Only one identified study focused on the cost-effectiveness of a test typically used in primary care. This review brings together all applied modelling methods for tests used in the diagnosis of PAD, which could be used to support future model-based economic evaluations in this field. The limited modelling work available on tests typically used for the detection of PAD in primary care, in particular, highlights the importance of future work in this area.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

Comparing the Major Definitions of Mathematics Pedagogical Content Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research was to compare two definitions and assessments of Mathematics Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK). As part of a larger study, nine current and future teachers took an online version of the Measures of Knowledge for Teaching (MKT)--Mathematics assessment and the Cognitively Activating Instruction in Mathematics…

Marriage Type and Reproductive Decisions: A Comparative Study in Sub-Saharan Africa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodoo, F. Nii-Amoo

1998-01-01

The effect of marriage type (polygamy vs. monogamy) on reproductive decisions is investigated using comparative data from the 1988, 1989, and 1993 Demographic and Health Surveys of Ghana and Kenya. Multivariate analysis is used. Inconclusive results are discussed with a focus on future research directions. (Author/EMK)

Examining temporal alterations in Social Anxiety Disorder and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: The relation between autobiographical memory, future goals, and current self-views.

PubMed

Krans, Julie; Peeters, Manon; Näring, Gérard; Brown, Adam D; de Bree, June; van Minnen, Agnes

2017-12-01

The self is a multi-faceted and temporally dynamic construct reflecting representations and beliefs about identity in the past, present, and future. Clinical studies have shown that individuals with Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD) exhibit alterations in self-related processing but these studies have focused primarily on memory. Few studies in PTSD and SAD have examined self-related processing for the present and future, and no studies have directly compared these processes across these two disorders. Individuals diagnosed with PTSD (n=21), SAD (n=21), and healthy controls (n=21) completed cognitive tasks related to the past, present, and future. Disorder congruent temporal alterations were found across both disorders. Further, regression analyses revealed that trauma-related memories were significantly predicted by future goals related to the trauma, whereas social anxiety-related recall was predicted by current socially anxious self-views. Thus, although self-related processing may be common in PTSD and SAD, those aspects of the self most strongly associated with disorder-congruent recall differ by disorder. Self-alterations may be modifiable and developing a better understanding of past, present, and future self-processing might aid in the development of interventions that target these process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Affective bias and current, past and future adolescent depression: a familial high risk study.

PubMed

Kilford, Emma J; Foulkes, Lucy; Potter, Robert; Collishaw, Stephan; Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances

2015-03-15

Affective bias is a common feature of depressive disorder. However, a lack of longitudinal studies means that the temporal relationship between affective bias and depression is not well understood. One group where studies of affective bias may be particularly warranted is the adolescent offspring of depressed parents, given observations of high rates of depression and a severe and impairing course of disorder in this group. A two wave panel design was used in which adolescent offspring of parents with recurrent depression completed a behavioural task assessing affective bias (The Affective Go/No Go Task) and a psychiatric interview. The affective processing of adolescents with current, prior and future depressive disorder was compared to that of adolescents free from disorder. Adolescents with current depression and those who developed depression at follow-up made more commission errors for sad than happy targets compared to adolescents free from disorder. There was no effect of prior depression on later affective processing. Small cell sizes meant we were unable to separately compare those with new onset and recurrent depressive disorder. Valence-specific errors in behavioural inhibition index future vulnerability to depression in adolescents already at increased risk and may represent a measure of affective control. Currently depressed adolescents show a similar pattern of affective bias or deficits in affective control. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Affective bias and current, past and future adolescent depression: A familial high risk study

PubMed Central

Kilford, Emma J.; Foulkes, Lucy; Potter, Robert; Collishaw, Stephan; Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances

2015-01-01

Background Affective bias is a common feature of depressive disorder. However, a lack of longitudinal studies means that the temporal relationship between affective bias and depression is not well understood. One group where studies of affective bias may be particularly warranted is the adolescent offspring of depressed parents, given observations of high rates of depression and a severe and impairing course of disorder in this group. Methods A two wave panel design was used in which adolescent offspring of parents with recurrent depression completed a behavioural task assessing affective bias (The Affective Go/No Go Task) and a psychiatric interview. The affective processing of adolescents with current, prior and future depressive disorder was compared to that of adolescents free from disorder. Results Adolescents with current depression and those who developed depression at follow-up made more commission errors for sad than happy targets compared to adolescents free from disorder. There was no effect of prior depression on later affective processing. Limitations Small cell sizes meant we were unable to separately compare those with new onset and recurrent depressive disorder. Conclusions Valence-specific errors in behavioural inhibition index future vulnerability to depression in adolescents already at increased risk and may represent a measure of affective control. Currently depressed adolescents show a similar pattern of affective bias or deficits in affective control. PMID:25527997

The value of a registry negative urine pregnancy test for the prediction of a future unintended pregnancy among young women.

PubMed

Rottenstreich, Misgav; Grisaru-Granovsky, Sorina; Rottenstreich, Amihai

2018-06-01

Performance of urine pregnancy test in general adolescents' clinic reflects caregiver or woman's concern that there might be a pregnancy. We aimed to assess whether young-unmarried women in whom a negative urine pregnancy test was registered would be at increased risk of a future unintended pregnancy. The study cohort included consecutive women drafted by the Israeli military between 2013 and 2015. The risk of unintended pregnancy was compared between women with a negative urine pregnancy test (n = 2774), the study group, and those in whom urine pregnancy test was not carried out (n = 126,659), the control group. During the study period, 2147 (1.7%) women experienced an unintended pregnancy. The risk of unintended pregnancy was significantly higher in patients in whom a past pregnancy test was negative 4.3% (n = 118), as compared with the control group 1.6% (n = 2028) (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.23-3.26). In multivariate analysis history of a negative pregnancy test results was an independent predictor for a future unintended pregnancy (adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52). A history of a negative pregnancy test among young conscripted women is a significant risk indicator for a future unintended pregnancy. Directed efforts should be made in this particular vulnerable group of patients.

Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

2011-10-01

Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (P<0.05) and that reminding people of these experiences results in higher predicted future liking for vegetables (P<0.05) and choice of a larger portion size of vegetables (P<0.05) compared with recall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Momentary Effects of Exposure to Pro-Smoking Media on College Students’ Future Smoking Risk

PubMed Central

Shadel, William G.; Martino, Steven C.; Setodji, Claude; Scharf, Deborah

2012-01-01

Objective This study used ecological momentary assessment to examine acute changes in college students’ future smoking risk as a function of their exposure to pro-smoking media (e.g., smoking in movies, paid advertising, point-of-sale promotions). Methods A sample of 135 college students (ever and never smokers) carried handheld computers for 21 days, recording their exposures to all forms of pro-smoking media during the assessment period. They also responded to three investigator-initiated control prompts during each day of the assessment period (i.e., programmed to occur randomly). After each pro-media smoking exposure and after each random control prompt they answered questions that measured their risk of future smoking. Responses between pro-smoking media encounters were compared to responses made during random control prompts. Results Compliance with the study protocol was high, with participants responding to over 83% of all random prompts. Participants recorded nearly three encounters with pro-smoking media each week. Results of linear mixed modeling indicated that all participants had higher future smoking risk following exposure to pro-smoking media compared with control prompts (p < 0.05); this pattern of response did not differ between ever and never smokers (p = 0.769). Additional modeling of the variances around participants’ risk of future smoking revealed that the response of never smokers to pro-smoking media was significantly more variable than the response of ever smokers. Conclusions Exposure to pro-smoking media is associated with acute changes in future smoking risk, and never smokers and ever smokers respond differently to these exposures. PMID:22353027

The Future of Swiss Foreign and Security Policy: Increasing International Cooperation is the Key to National Autonomy

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

government,14 the “comparison cases ” in the present analysis—Austria, Finland , Ireland and Sweden—and the various security studies institutions.15 The...comparative cases are those of Austria, Finland , Ireland, and Sweden, the larger European neutrals.22 The study is limited to these five cases because the...17   III.   COMPARING SWITZERLAND WITH FOUR CASES

Episodic and semantic components of autobiographical memories and imagined future events in post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Brown, Adam D; Addis, Donna Rose; Romano, Tracy A; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A; Hirst, William; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to retrieve autobiographical memories with less episodic specificity, referred to as overgeneralised autobiographical memory. In line with evidence that autobiographical memory overlaps with one's capacity to imagine the future, recent work has also shown that individuals with PTSD also imagine themselves in the future with less episodic specificity. To date most studies quantify episodic specificity by the presence of a distinct event. However, this method does not distinguish between the numbers of internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details, which can provide additional insights into remembering the past and imagining the future. This study employed the Autobiographical Interview (AI) coding scheme to the autobiographical memory and imagined future event narratives generated by combat veterans with and without PTSD. Responses were coded for the number of internal and external details. Compared to combat veterans without PTSD, those with PTSD generated more external than internal details when recalling past or imagining future events, and fewer internal details were associated with greater symptom severity. The potential mechanisms underlying these bidirectional deficits and clinical implications are discussed.

Facilitating comparative effectiveness research in cancer genomics: evaluating stakeholder perceptions of the engagement process.

PubMed

Deverka, Patricia A; Lavallee, Danielle C; Desai, Priyanka J; Armstrong, Joanne; Gorman, Mark; Hole-Curry, Leah; O'Leary, James; Ruffner, B W; Watkins, John; Veenstra, David L; Baker, Laurence H; Unger, Joseph M; Ramsey, Scott D

2012-07-01

The Center for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Cancer Genomics completed a 2-year stakeholder-guided process for the prioritization of genomic tests for comparative effectiveness research studies. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of engagement procedures in achieving project goals and to identify opportunities for future improvements. The evaluation included an online questionnaire, one-on-one telephone interviews and facilitated discussion. Responses to the online questionnaire were tabulated for descriptive purposes, while transcripts from key informant interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis approach. A total of 11 out of 13 stakeholders completed both the online questionnaire and interview process, while nine participated in the facilitated discussion. Eighty-nine percent of questionnaire items received overall ratings of agree or strongly agree; 11% of responses were rated as neutral with the exception of a single rating of disagreement with an item regarding the clarity of how stakeholder input was incorporated into project decisions. Recommendations for future improvement included developing standard recruitment practices, role descriptions and processes for improved communication with clinical and comparative effectiveness research investigators. Evaluation of the stakeholder engagement process provided constructive feedback for future improvements and should be routinely conducted to ensure maximal effectiveness of stakeholder involvement.

Role of triggers and dysphoria in mind-wandering about past, present and future: A laboratory study.

PubMed

Plimpton, Benjamin; Patel, Priya; Kvavilashvili, Lia

2015-05-01

To bridge the related but separate areas of research on mind-wandering and Involuntary Autobiographical Memory (IAM), the frequency and temporal focus of task unrelated thoughts about past, present, and future was compared in 19 dysphoric and 21 non-dysphoric participants, using a modified laboratory method for studying IAMs. Participants were stopped 11 times during a 15-min vigilance task and recorded their thoughts at that moment. In both groups, most thoughts were spontaneous, task-unrelated, and triggered by irrelevant cue-words on the screen with negative words being more likely to trigger past memories and positive cues - thoughts about future. Both groups reported more past memories than current or future thoughts, but differences emerged in the type of future thought experienced: non-dysphoric participants reported more planning thoughts, and dysphoric participants more abstract hypothetical thoughts. The results suggest that some findings from IAM research regarding cues and the impact of dysphoria may be generalizable to mind-wandering. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Imagining the Future: Perspectives Among Youth and Caregivers in the Trans Youth Family Study

PubMed Central

Katz-Wise, Sabra L.; Budge, Stephanie L.; Orovecz, Joe J.; Nguyen, Bradford; Nava-Coulter, Brett; Thomson, Katharine

2016-01-01

Future perspectives of transgender youth and their caregivers may be shaped by knowledge of discrimination and adverse mental health among transgender adults. Qualitative data from the Trans Youth Family Study were used to examine how transgender and gender nonconforming (TGN) youth and their caregivers imagine the youth's future. A community-based sample of 16 families (16 TGN youth, ages 7-18 years, and 29 caregivers) was recruited from two regions in the United States. Participants completed in-person qualitative interviews and surveys. Interview transcripts were analyzed using grounded theory methodology for coding procedures. Analyses yielded 104 higher order themes across 45 interviews, with eight prominent themes: comparing experiences with others, gender affirming hormones, gender affirming surgery, gender norms, questioning whether the youth is really transgender, expectations for romantic relationships, uncertainty about the future, and worries about physical and emotional safety. A conceptual model of future perspectives in TGN youth and caregivers is presented and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:28068129

Know thyself: misperceptions of actual performance undermine achievement motivation, future performance, and subjective well-being.

PubMed

Kim, Young-Hoon; Chiu, Chi-Yue; Zou, Zhimin

2010-09-01

Contrary to the popular assumption that self-enhancement improves task motivation and future performance, the authors propose that both inflated and deflated self-assessments of performance are linked to an increased likelihood of practicing self-handicapping and having relatively poor performance in future tasks. Consistent with this proposal, we found that irrespective of the level of actual performance, compared with accurate self-assessment, both inflated and deflated self-assessments of task performance are associated with a greater tendency to (a) practice self-handicapping (Study 1: prefer to work under distraction; Study 2: withhold preparatory effort), (b) perform relatively poorly in a subsequent task (Study 3), (c) have relatively low academic achievement (Study 4), and (d) report a relatively low level of subjective well-being (Study 5). The authors discuss these results in terms of their educational implications. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Combination Pharmacotherapies for Stimulant Use Disorder: A Review of Clinical Findings and Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

Stoops, William W.; Rush, Craig R.

2014-01-01

Despite concerted efforts to identify a pharmacotherapy for managing stimulant use disorders, no widely effective medications have been approved. Innovative strategies are necessary to develop successful pharmacotherapies for stimulant use disorders. This manuscript reviews human laboratory studies and clinical trials to determine whether one such strategy, use of combination pharmacotherapies, holds promise. The extant literature shows that combination pharmacotherapy produced results that were better than placebo treatment, especially with medications shown to have efficacy as monotherapies. However, many studies did not compare individual constituents to the combination treatment, making it impossible to determine whether combination treatment is more effective than monotherapy. Future research should systematically compare combined treatments with individual agents using medications showing some efficacy when tested alone. PMID:24716825

Review of methodological challenges in comparing the effectiveness of neoadjuvant chemotherapy versus primary debulking surgery for advanced ovarian cancer in the United States.

PubMed

Cole, Ashley L; Austin, Anna E; Hickson, Ryan P; Dixon, Matthew S; Barber, Emma L

2018-05-11

Randomized trials outside the U.S. have found non-inferior survival for neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) versus primary debulking surgery (PDS) for advanced ovarian cancer (AOC). However, these trials reported lower overall survival and lower rates of optimal debulking than U.S. studies, leading to questions about generalizability to U.S. practice, where aggressive debulking is more common. Consequently, comparative effectiveness in the U.S. remains controversial. We reviewed U.S. comparative effectiveness studies of NACT versus PDS for AOC. Here we describe methodological challenges, compare results to trials outside the U.S., and make suggestions for future research. We identified U.S. studies published in 2010 or later that evaluated the comparative effectiveness of NACT versus PDS on survival in AOC through a PubMed search. Two independent reviewers abstracted data from eligible articles. Nine of 230 articles were eligible for review. Methodological challenges included unmeasured confounders, heterogeneous treatment effects, treatment variations over time, and inconsistent measurement of treatment and survival. Whereas some limitations were unavoidable, several limitations noted across studies were avoidable, including conditioning on mediating factors and immortal time introduced by measuring survival beginning from diagnosis. Without trials in the U.S., non-randomized studies are an important source of evidence for the ideal treatment for AOC. However, several methodological challenges exist when assessing the comparative effectiveness of NACT versus PDS in a non-randomized setting. Future observational studies must ensure that treatment is consistent throughout the study period and that treatment groups are comparable. Rapidly-evolving oncology data networks may allow for identification of treatment intent and other important confounders. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EVA Health and Human Performance Benchmarking Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abercromby, A. F.; Norcross, J.; Jarvis, S. L.

2016-01-01

Multiple HRP Risks and Gaps require detailed characterization of human health and performance during exploration extravehicular activity (EVA) tasks; however, a rigorous and comprehensive methodology for characterizing and comparing the health and human performance implications of current and future EVA spacesuit designs does not exist. This study will identify and implement functional tasks and metrics, both objective and subjective, that are relevant to health and human performance, such as metabolic expenditure, suit fit, discomfort, suited postural stability, cognitive performance, and potentially biochemical responses for humans working inside different EVA suits doing functional tasks under the appropriate simulated reduced gravity environments. This study will provide health and human performance benchmark data for humans working in current EVA suits (EMU, Mark III, and Z2) as well as shirtsleeves using a standard set of tasks and metrics with quantified reliability. Results and methodologies developed during this test will provide benchmark data against which future EVA suits, and different suit configurations (eg, varied pressure, mass, CG) may be reliably compared in subsequent tests. Results will also inform fitness for duty standards as well as design requirements and operations concepts for future EVA suits and other exploration systems.

Acclimatization to extreme heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

DOT/NASA comparative assessment of Brayton engines for guideway vehicle and buses. Volume 1: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The Department of Transportation requested that the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology evaluate and assess the potential of several types of gas turbine engines and fuels for the on-board power and propulsion of a future heavy-duty ground transportation system. The purpose of the investigation was threefold: (1) to provide a definition of the potential for turbine engines to minimize pollution, energy consumption, and noise; (2) to provide a useful means of comparison of the types of engine based on consistent assumptions and a common analytical approach; and (3) to provide a compendium of comparative performance data that would serve as the technical basis for future planning. Emphasis was on establishing comparison trends rather than on absolute values and a definitive engine selection. The primary value of this study is intended to be usefulness of the results to provide a quantitative basis for future judgement.

Comparative and International Education: Policy Transfer, Context Sensitivity and Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crossley, Michael; Watson, Keith

2009-01-01

This paper examines the intellectual and professional contribution of comparative and international studies to the field of education. It explores the nature of the challenges that are currently being faced, and assesses its potential for the advancement of future teaching, research and professional development. Attention is paid to the place of…

Journalism Students' Motivations and Expectations of Their Work in Comparative Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanusch, Folker; Mellado, Claudia; Boshoff, Priscilla; Humanes, María Luisa; de León, Salvador; Pereira, Fabio; Márquez Ramírez, Mireya; Roses, Sergio; Subervi, Federico; Wyss, Vinzenz; Yez, Lyuba

2015-01-01

Based on a survey of 4,393 journalism students in Australia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States, this study provides much-needed comparative evidence about students' motivations for becoming journalists, their future job plans, and expectations. Findings show not only an almost universal decline in…

Future population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki.

PubMed

Yokota, Kenichi; Mine, Mariko; Shibata, Yoshisada

2013-01-01

The Nagasaki University Atomic Bomb Survivor Database, which was established in 1978 for elucidating the long-term health effects of the atomic bombing, has registered since 1970 about 120,000 atomic bomb survivors with a history of residence in Nagasaki city. Since the number of atomic bomb survivors has steadily been decreasing, prediction of future population is important for planning future epidemiologic studies, and we tried to predict the population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki city from 2008 to 2030. In addition, we evaluated our estimated population comparing with the actual number from 2008 to 2011.

Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

PubMed

Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

2018-02-15

The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hopelessness and future thinking in parasuicide: the role of perfectionism.

PubMed

Hunter, Elizabeth C; O'Connor, Rory C

2003-11-01

This study had three aims: (1) to independently replicate the future thinking effect, that parasuicides, when compared with controls, show a deficit in positive future thinking but no increase in negative future thinking; (2) to determine whether positive future thinking and socially prescribed perfectionism discriminate general hospital parasuicides from controls beyond measures of affect and; (3) to explore the relationship between future thinking and perfectionism. A cross-sectional design was employed. Three groups of participants took part: hospital parasuicide patients (N=22), hospital controls (N=22) and community controls (N=21). Parasuicide patients admitted, via accident and emergency, to a general hospital were matched with hospital and community controls and assessed on measures of hopelessness, depression, anxiety, perfectionism, and future thinking. There was evidence to support the future thinking effect. A discriminant function analysis revealed that social perfectionism and positive future thinking did indeed discriminate parasuicides from controls beyond the effects of hopelessness, depression, and anxiety. Exploratory relationships between perfectionism and positive future thinking were also reported. The results reinforce the importance of future thinking in parasuicide. Moreover, the role of social perfectionism in the suicidal process was elucidated and ought to be replicated within a prospective design.

A comparison of trends in research into home care services in Japan and Korea

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to compare of the research trends for home care services in Japan and the Republic of Korea (Korea). In particular, it was compared as the research design, the method of data collection, and key words by literature review. Methods Original articles on home care services were selected from Japanese and Korean journals published from the year of 2004 to 2008. The articles were classified, and compared in terms of the number of articles per year. Results The research design was quite different. Quantitative research design was dominantly conducted in Korea, qualitative research design was used same level of design in Japan. In particular, outcome study was shown in Korean. Conclusions It is suggested that future collaboration be undertaken to improve the variety of research design and method especially in both countries under the aged society. In addition, it provides information concerning research concepts, which can be applied to optimize future home care services. PMID:23870373

Proceedings of the conference on alternative energy sources for Texas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rothman, I.N.

1981-01-01

Four primary areas of study for alternative energy sources for Texas are considered. These are: energy demand supply and economics; prospects for energy resources (oil, lignite, coal, nuclear, goethermal and solar) and conservation; financial and technical constraints; and future planning. The following papers are presented: US energy outlook to 1990; energy supply and demand projections; comparative economics of solar energy in the generation of big power; gas present and future prospects; prospects for enhanced recovery of oil in Texas; the outlook for coal in USA; implementation of nuclear power in Texas; future outlook - geopressured-geothermal energy for Texas; future prospectsmore » for conservation and solar energy; financing and money supply constraints; technical constraints to energy supply increase; planning for the future - the crisis that drones on. Two papers have been abstracted separately.« less

Romantic ideals, mate preferences, and anticipation of future difficulties in marital life: a comparative study of young adults in India and America

PubMed Central

Bejanyan, Kathrine; Marshall, Tara C.; Ferenczi, Nelli

2014-01-01

Previous studies have established that Indians tend to be greater in collectivism and gender role traditionalism than Americans. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether these differences explained further cultural differences in romantic beliefs, traditional mate preferences, and anticipation of future difficulties in marital life. Results revealed that Indians reported greater collectivism than Americans and, in turn, held stronger romantic beliefs. Additionally, Indians' greater collectivism and endorsement of more traditional gender roles in part predicted their preferences for a marital partner possessing traditional characteristics, and fully accounted for their heightened concerns about encountering future difficulties in marital life. These results shed light on the processes underlying cultural differences in relationship attitudes and preferences, and point to culture-specific therapies to enhance marital functioning. PMID:25520681

Student Drug Use, Attitudes, and Beliefs in the Department of Defense Dependent Schools Class of 1982. Monitoring the Future. Occasional Paper Series, Paper 15.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; And Others

This paper compared findings from a drug use and related attitudes survey with those from the Monitoring the Future study. The comparison group consisted of high school seniors who attended the Department of Defense Dependents Schools (DoDDS) in 1982. The current prevalence of drug use among high school seniors in DoDDS and comparisons of drug use…

Prediagnostic serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers are correlated with future development of lung and esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Keeley, Brieze R; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Pak, Jamie S; Brennan, Paul; Khademi, Hooman; Genden, Eric M; Abnet, Christian C; Dawsey, Sanford M; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza; Sikora, Andrew G

2014-01-01

This study tests the hypothesis that prediagnostic serum levels of 20 cancer-associated inflammatory biomarkers correlate directly with future development of head and neck, esophageal, and lung cancers in a high-risk prospective cohort. This is a nested case–control pilot study of subjects enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study, an ongoing epidemiologic project assessing cancer trends in Golestan, Iran. We measured a panel of 20 21cytokines, chemokines, and inflammatory molecules using Luminex technology in serum samples collected 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis in 78 aerodigestive cancer cases and 81 controls. Data was analyzed using Wilcoxon rank sum test, odds ratios, receiver operating characteristic areas of discrimination, and multivariate analysis. Biomarkers were profoundly and globally elevated in future esophageal and lung cancer patients compared to controls. Odds ratios were significant for association between several biomarkers and future development of esophageal cancer, including interleukin-1Rα (IL-1Ra; 35.9), interferon α2 (IFN-a2; 34.0), fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2; 17.4), and granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF; 17.4). The same pattern was observed among future lung cancer cases for G-CSF (27.7), GM-CSF (13.3), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-a; 8.6). By contrast, the majority of biomarkers studied showed no significant correlation with future head and neck cancer development. This study provides the first direct evidence that multiple inflammatory biomarkers are coordinately elevated in future lung and esophageal cancer patients 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis. PMID:25040886

Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

PubMed

Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

2018-02-01

Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

A systematic model to compare nurses' optimal and actual competencies in the clinical setting.

PubMed

Meretoja, Riitta; Koponen, Leena

2012-02-01

This paper is a report of a study to develop a model to compare nurses' optimal and actual competencies in the clinical setting.   Although future challenge is to focus the developmental and educational targets in health care, limited information is available on methods for how to predict optimal competencies. A multidisciplinary group of 24 experts on perioperative care were recruited to this study. They anticipated the effects of future challenges on perioperative care and specified the level of optimal competencies by using the Nurse Competence Scale before and after group discussions. The expert group consensus discussions were held to achieve the highest possible agreement on the overall level of optimal competencies. Registered Nurses (n = 87) and their nurse managers from five different units conducted assessments of the actual level of nurse competence with the Nurse Competence Scale instrument. Data were collected in 2006-2007. Group consensus discussions solidified experts' anticipations about the optimal competence level. This optimal competence level was significantly higher than the nurses' self-reported actual or nurse managers' assessed level of actual competence. The study revealed some competence items that were seen as key challenges for future education of professional nursing practice. It is important that the multidisciplinary experts in a particular care context develop a share understanding of the future competency requirements of patient care. Combining optimal competence profiles to systematic competence assessments contribute to targeted continual learning and educational interventions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

2010-01-01

Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

What is the role of combination drug therapy in the treatment of overactive bladder? ICI-RS 2014.

PubMed

Visco, Anthony G; Fraser, Matthew O; Newgreen, Donald; Oelke, Matthias; Cardozo, Linda

2016-02-01

The role of combination therapy using oral antimuscarinic medications for the treatment of overactive bladder was proposed at the 2014 International Consultation on Incontinence-Research Society in Bristol, UK to identify key factors to consider when making clinical decisions and to guide future research design. Combination therapy is justified if monotherapy is associated with suboptimal efficacy or bothersome side effects. Combination therapy has the potential to improve efficacy with fewer side effects than monotherapy. Two Phase 2 studies comparing combination therapy that included an antimuscarinic demonstrated improvement in mean voided volume, the primary outcome chosen, with some combinations showing improved micturition frequency and quality of life. The two studies found no evidence of an increased safety risk with combination therapy compared to monotherapy. Future studies should use clinically meaningful or patient reported outcomes such as incontinence episodes when comparing efficacy. If surrogate measures are used, a clear justification should be provided. Cost analyses should be planned for clinical research trials evaluating combination drug therapy. Combination therapy is reasonable when monotherapy has suboptimal efficacy or bothersome side effects. Future research studies evaluating combination therapy for urgency urinary incontinence should ideally(1) be performed as part of a randomized clinical trial,(2) evaluate non-responders to monotherapy,(3) evaluate combination therapy using medications with different mechanisms of action,(4) include clinically meaningful and patient reported outcomes when evaluating efficacy, and(5) include cost-effectiveness analyses to justify any increased cost by showing improvement in efficacy or reduction in side effects. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Virtual reality in the psychological treatment for mental health problems: An systematic review of recent evidence.

PubMed

Valmaggia, Lucia R; Latif, Leila; Kempton, Matthew J; Rus-Calafell, Maria

2016-02-28

The aim of this paper is to provide a review of controlled studies of the use of Virtual Reality in psychological treatment (VRT). Medline, PsychInfo, Embase and Web of Science were searched. Only studies comparing immersive virtual reality to a control condition were included. The search resulted in 1180 articles published between 2012 and 2015, of these, 24 were controlled studies. The reviewed studies confirm the effectiveness of VRT compared to treatment as usual, and show similar effectiveness when VRT is compared to conventional treatments. Current developments and future research are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age differences in the understanding of wealth and power: the mediating role of future time perspective.

PubMed

Li, Tianyuan; Tsang, Vivian Hiu-Ling

2016-12-01

Individuals' understanding of wealth and power largely determines their use of resources. Moreover, the age range of wealth and power holders is increasing in modern societies. Thus, the current study examines how people of different ages understand wealth and power. As varying future time perspective is related to changes in prioritised life goals, it was tested as a potential mediator of the age differences. A total of 133 participants aged 18-78 years were asked 8 open-ended questions regarding their understanding of the possible use and desired use of wealth and power, after which they reported their future time perspective. Compared with possible use, the participants mentioned relatively more prosocial elements when they talked about their desired use of the resources, especially power. The older adults expressed more prosocial understanding in regard to the desired use of wealth and the possible use of power compared to their younger counterparts. The age differences were fully mediated by future time perspective. The results suggest that age is a critical factor that influences individuals' conceptualisation of wealth and power. Life-span developmental stage and future time perspective are important factors to consider for explaining individual differences in the exercise of wealth and power and for promoting their prosocial usage.

Does acceptance of power distance influence propensities for problematic Internet use? Evidence from a cross-cultural study.

PubMed

Montag, Christian; Duke, Éilish; Sha, Peng; Zhou, Min; Sindermann, Cornelia; Li, Mei

2016-12-01

Several studies suggest that Asian countries are particularly afflicted by problematic Internet use (PIU). The present study investigates whether individual differences in the acceptance of power distance can be linked to overuse of the Internet in Germany and in China. Power distance has been discussed as an essential dimension on which Asian and Western societies differ. In the present study, we investigate two large non-clinical samples from Germany (n = 297) and China (n = 556) to address this question. Both in Germany and in China, high acceptance of power distance was positively associated with PIU. These effects were more pronounced in China compared with Germany. Moreover, the observed effects were stronger in males compared with females. Clearly, these findings are just a starting point and need to be replicated in the future. Clinical populations and a further important difference variable - collectivism - also merit consideration in future work. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

When to Perform Antenna Measurements in a Near-Field Range or a Short Tapered Chamber

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

study was undertaken to quantify and compare electromagnetic device (i.e., antenna) measurements using the US Army Research Laboratory’s (ARL’s) near...results for future antennas under test in the most cost-effective manner (man-hours, custom mount, etc.) 15. SUBJECT TERMS electromagnetic , chamber...study was undertaken to quantify and compare electromagnetic (EM) device (i.e., antenna) measurements using the US Army Research Laboratory’s (ARL

Chinese and Australians showed difference in mental time travel in emotion and content but not specificity

PubMed Central

Chen, Xing-Jie; Liu, Lu-Lu; Cui, Ji-Fang; Wang, Ya; Shum, David H. K.; Chan, Raymond C. K.

2015-01-01

Mental time travel refers to the ability to recall episodic past and imagine future events. The present study aimed to investigate cultural differences in mental time travel between Chinese and Australian university students. A total of 231 students (108 Chinese and 123 Australians) participated in the study. Their mental time travel abilities were measured by the Sentence Completion for Events from the Past Test (SCEPT) and the Sentence Completion for Events in the Future Test (SCEFT). Results showed that there were no cultural differences in the number of specific events generated for the past or future. Significant differences between the Chinese and Australian participants were found mainly in the emotional valence and content of the events generated. Both Chinese and Australian participants generated more specific positive events compared to negative events when thinking about the future and Chinese participants were more positive about their past than Australian participants when recalling specific events. For content, Chinese participants recalled more events about their interpersonal relationships, while Australian participants imagined more about personal future achievements. These findings shed some lights on cultural differences in episodic past and future thinking. PMID:26167154

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-01-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals’ time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying “I don’t know” item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research. PMID:28781381

Facilitating comparative effectiveness research in cancer genomics: evaluating stakeholder perceptions of the engagement process

PubMed Central

Deverka, Patricia A; Lavallee, Danielle C; Desai, Priyanka J; Armstrong, Joanne; Gorman, Mark; Hole-Curry, Leah; O’Leary, James; Ruffner, BW; Watkins, John; Veenstra, David L; Baker, Laurence H; Unger, Joseph M; Ramsey, Scott D

2013-01-01

Aims The Center for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Cancer Genomics completed a 2-year stakeholder-guided process for the prioritization of genomic tests for comparative effectiveness research studies. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of engagement procedures in achieving project goals and to identify opportunities for future improvements. Materials & methods The evaluation included an online questionnaire, one-on-one telephone interviews and facilitated discussion. Responses to the online questionnaire were tabulated for descriptive purposes, while transcripts from key informant interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis approach. Results A total of 11 out of 13 stakeholders completed both the online questionnaire and interview process, while nine participated in the facilitated discussion. Eighty-nine percent of questionnaire items received overall ratings of agree or strongly agree; 11% of responses were rated as neutral with the exception of a single rating of disagreement with an item regarding the clarity of how stakeholder input was incorporated into project decisions. Recommendations for future improvement included developing standard recruitment practices, role descriptions and processes for improved communication with clinical and comparative effectiveness research investigators. Conclusions Evaluation of the stakeholder engagement process provided constructive feedback for future improvements and should be routinely conducted to ensure maximal effectiveness of stakeholder involvement. PMID:23459832

Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

2017-04-01

In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit volume is expected to be up to almost eight times larger in the future compared to the historical period (Wolverine, +674%) in the HVT-D scenario, caused by the regime shift. Using the TVT the drought characteristics between the C and D scenarios and between future and historic droughts are more similar. However, when using the TVT, causing factors of future droughts, anomalies in temperature and/or precipitation, can be analysed. This study highlights the different conclusions that may be drawn on future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments depending on methodological choices. They could be used to answer different questions: the TVT for analysing drought processes in the future, the HVT to assess changes between historical and future periods, the constant area conceptualisation to analyse the effect of short term climate variability and the dynamical glacier area to model realistic future discharges in glacierized catchments.

Interaction of external conditions with the internal flowfield in liquid rocket engines - A computational study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, H. P.; Gross, K. W.

1989-01-01

Computational studies have been conducted to examine the capability of a CFD code by simulating the steady state thrust chamber internal flow. The SSME served as the sample case, and significant parameter profiles are presented and discussed. Performance predictions from TDK, the recommended JANNAF reference computer program, are compared with those from PHOENICS to establish the credibility of its results. The investigation of an overexpanded nozzle flow is particularly addressed since it plays an important role in the area ratio selection of future rocket engines. Experience gained during this uncompleted flow separation study and future steps are outlined.

Children with chronic conditions: perspectives on condition management.

PubMed

Beacham, Barbara L; Deatrick, Janet A

2015-01-01

This qualitative study described children's (8-13 years old) perspectives of their chronic health conditions (e.g., asthma, diabetes, cystic fibrosis): how they perceived their condition, its management, and its implications for their future. The study used the family management style framework (FMSF) to examine child perspectives on the joint venture of condition management between the child and family. Children within this age group viewed condition management in ways similar to their parents and have developed their own routines around condition management. Future studies of this phenomenon comparing child and parent perspectives would further our understanding of the influence of family management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long Term Perspective On Interstellar Flight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millis, M. G.

2017-12-01

The process and interim findings of a broad interstellar flight assessment is presented. In contrast to precursor mission studies, this assessment takes a longer view and also considers factors that have been underrepresented in prior studies. The goal is to chart a conceptual roadmap for interstellar flight development that takes all the factors into account and ultimately identifies which research options, today, might have the greatest overall impact on future progress. Three envisioned flight eras are examined, the "era of precursors," the "era of infrastructure," and the "unforeseeable future." Several influential factors have typically been missing from prior studies that will now be assessed; a) the impact of different, often implicit, motivations, b) the interdependency of infrastructure with vehicle design, c) the pace of different developments, and d) the enormous energy required for any interstellar mission. Regarding motivations for example, if the driving motivation is to launch soon, then the emphasis is on existing technologies. In contrast, if the motivation is the survival of humanity, then the emphasis would be on 'world ships.' Infrastructure considerations are included in a broader system-level context. Future infrastructure will support multiple in-space activities, not just one mission-vehicle development. Though it may be too difficult to successfully assess, the study will attempt to compare the rates of different developments, such as the pace of Earth-based astronomy, miniaturization, artificial intelligence, infrastructure development, transhumanism, and others. For example, what new information could be acquired after 30 years of further advances in astronomy compared to a space probe with current technology and a 30 year flight time? The final factor of the study is to assess the pace and risks of the enormous energy levels required for interstellar flight. To compare disparate methods, a set of 'meta measures' will be defined and calculated for all the different approaches. For example, rather than comparing performance in terms of rocket specific impulse or sail reflectivity, more general measures like mass, energy, power, time, and efficiency will be used.

Adapting to a Changing Colorado River: Making Future Water Deliveries More Reliable Through Robust Management Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D.; Bloom, E.; Fischbach, J. R.; Knopman, D.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and water management agencies representing the seven Colorado River Basin States initiated the Colorado River Basin Study in January 2010 to evaluate the resiliency of the Colorado River system over the next 50 years and compare different options for ensuring successful management of the river's resources. RAND was asked to join this Basin Study Team in January 2012 to help develop an analytic approach to identify key vulnerabilities in managing the Colorado River basin over the coming decades and to evaluate different options that could reduce this vulnerability. Using a quantitative approach for planning under uncertainty called Robust Decision Making (RDM), the RAND team assisted the Basin Study by: identifying future vulnerable conditions that could lead to imbalances that could cause the basin to be unable to meet its water delivery objectives; developing a computer-based tool to define 'portfolios' of management options reflecting different strategies for reducing basin imbalances; evaluating these portfolios across thousands of future scenarios to determine how much they could improve basin outcomes; and analyzing the results from the system simulations to identify key tradeoffs among the portfolios. This talk will describe RAND's contribution to the Basin Study, focusing on the methodologies used to to identify vulnerabilities for Upper Basin and Lower Basin water supply reliability and to compare portfolios of options. Several key findings emerged from the study. Future Streamflow and Climate Conditions Are Key: - Vulnerable conditions arise in a majority of scenarios where streamflows are lower than historical averages and where drought conditions persist for eight years or more. - Depending where the shortages occur, problems will arise for delivery obligations for the upper river basin and the lower river basin. The lower river basin is vulnerable to a broader range of plausible future conditions. Additional Investments in Infrastructure and Efficiency Could Improve Performance and Reduce Risk: - Different portfolios of water-supply and demand-reduction options offer performance trade-offs. - Different types of options in the portfolios, such as conservation, desalination, or water banking, would affect future outcomes and costs of implementation. - Analysis of all the portfolios identified important near-term, high-priority options that should be implemented in the near future, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural conservation. Other Solutions May Be Required: - If future hydrologic conditions develop in a manner consistent with the more pessimistic projections, the Basin is increasingly likely to face vulnerable conditions. The region may need to consider additional management options.

Constraining the interaction between dark sectors with future HI intensity mapping observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaodong; Ma, Yin-Zhe; Weltman, Amanda

2018-04-01

We study a model of interacting dark matter and dark energy, in which the two components are coupled. We calculate the predictions for the 21-cm intensity mapping power spectra, and forecast the detectability with future single-dish intensity mapping surveys (BINGO, FAST and SKA-I). Since dark energy is turned on at z ˜1 , which falls into the sensitivity range of these radio surveys, the HI intensity mapping technique is an efficient tool to constrain the interaction. By comparing with current constraints on dark sector interactions, we find that future radio surveys will produce tight and reliable constraints on the coupling parameters.

Association between time perspective and organic food consumption in a large sample of adults.

PubMed

Bénard, Marc; Baudry, Julia; Méjean, Caroline; Lairon, Denis; Giudici, Kelly Virecoulon; Etilé, Fabrice; Reach, Gérard; Hercberg, Serge; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Péneau, Sandrine

2018-01-05

Organic food intake has risen in many countries during the past decades. Even though motivations associated with such choice have been studied, psychological traits preceding these motivations have rarely been explored. Consideration of future consequences (CFC) represents the extent to which individuals consider future versus immediate consequences of their current behaviors. Consequently, a future oriented personality may be an important characteristic of organic food consumers. The objective was to analyze the association between CFC and organic food consumption in a large sample of the adult general population. In 2014, a sample of 27,634 participants from the NutriNet-Santé cohort study completed the CFC questionnaire and an Organic-Food Frequency questionnaire. For each food group (17 groups), non-organic food consumers were compared to organic food consumers across quartiles of the CFC using multiple logistic regressions. Moreover, adjusted means of proportions of organic food intakes out of total food intakes were compared between quartiles of the CFC. Analyses were adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle and dietary characteristics. Participants with higher CFC were more likely to consume organic food (OR quartile 4 (Q4) vs. Q1 = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.62, 2.20). Overall, future oriented participants were more likely to consume 14 food groups. The strongest associations were observed for starchy refined foods (OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.63, 1.94), and fruits and vegetables (OR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.58, 1.92). The contribution of organic food intake out of total food intake was 33% higher in the Q4 compared to Q1. More precisely, the contribution of organic food consumed was higher in the Q4 for 16 food groups. The highest relative differences between Q4 and Q1 were observed for starchy refined foods (22%) and non-alcoholic beverages (21%). Seafood was the only food group without a significant difference. This study provides information on the personality of organic food consumers in a large sample of adult participants. Consideration of future consequences could represent a significant psychological determinant of organic food consumption.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Futures for Comparative Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butts, R. Freeman

1973-01-01

Author considered the future of comparative education in terms of four interrelated worlds of discourse'', the world of new nations, crises in old nations, the world of scholarship, and the professional world of teacher education. (Author/RK)

Optimism for the Future in Younger and Older Adults.

PubMed

Durbin, Kelly A; Barber, Sarah J; Brown, Maddalena; Mather, Mara

2018-01-09

Research has suggested that older adults are less optimistic about their future than younger adults; however, a limitation of prior studies is that younger and older adults were forecasting to different ages and stages of life. To address this, we investigated whether there are age differences in future optimism when people project to the exact same age. We also tested whether optimism differs when projecting one's own future versus another person's future. Participants were 285 younger and 292 older adults recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk. Participants completed writing and word-rating tasks in which they imagined their own future in 15 years, their own future at age 85, or the average person's future at age 85. Younger adults were more optimistic than older adults about their own future in 15 years. In contrast, both age groups were similarly optimistic about their future at age 85 and expected it to be more positive than others' future at age 85. Contrary to previous research, younger and older adults had comparable future forecasts when projecting to the exact same age. These findings emphasize the need to consider age and stage of life when examining age differences in future optimism. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Does the OVX matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from the crude oil market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Wendai

2018-02-01

In this paper, I investigate that whether the OVX and its truncated parts with a certain threshold can significantly help in forecasting the oil futures price volatility basing on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In-sample estimation results show that the OVX has a significantly positive impact on futures volatility. The impact of large OVX on future volatility has slightly powerful compared to the small ones. Moreover, the HARQ-RV model outperforms the HAR-RV in predicting the oil futures volatility. More importantly, the decomposed OVX have more powerful in forecasting the oil futures price volatility compared to the OVX itself.

Alternative Approaches for Educating Future Global Marketing Professionals: A Comparison of Foreign Study and Research-Intensive Marketing Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufman, Peter A.; Melton, Horace L.; Varner, Iris I.; Hoelscher, Mark; Schmidt, Klaus; Spaulding, Aslihan D.

2011-01-01

Using an experiential learning model as a conceptual background, this article discusses characteristics and learning objectives for well-known foreign study programs such as study tours, study abroad, and internships and compares them with a less common overseas program called the "Global Marketing Program" (GMP). GMP involves…

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

An Index-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity for Sustainable Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. E.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, K. S.; Hyun, S.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

Global precipitation pattern is changing due to climate change, causing drought and water scarcity all around the world. As water is mandatory to all lives, water availability is becoming essential and so is sustainable water resource management. Especially in agriculture, water resource management is crucial, as it is directly connected to the production. However, many studies about water scarcity show limits by focusing on current situation and overlooking future possibilities of water availability. Also, most of the studies about water scarcity use single index or model. To overcome these shortcomings, we assessed agricultural water scarcity considering future climate, using water scarcity indices. We assessed present and future water scarcity using several indices and compared the results derived from each index. The study area of this research is South Korea, as drought is a prominent problem in agricultural sector. Precipitation in Korea is concentrated in summer, causing severe drought in spring and fall. Rainfall density in Korea is increasing with climate change, and sustainable water resource management is inevitable. In this research, we used irrigational demand along with current and future crop production of 2030 and 2050 as water demand. We projected the future (2020-2100) runoff of dams located in Korea as water demand under future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The result showed severe water scarcity in Southern area of Korea both in the present and the future. It was due to increase of water demand and decrease of precipitation. It indicates that the water scarcity gets more intense in the future, and emphasizes the importance of water resource management of the southern part. This research will be valuable in establishing water resource management in agricultural sector for sustainable water availability in the future.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Assessing Environmental Competencies of Primary Education Pre-Service Teachers in Spain: A Comparative Study between Two Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alvarez-García, Olaya; Sureda-Negre, Jaume; Comas-Forgas, Rubén

2018-01-01

Purpose: In this paper, the results of an investigation aimed at analysing and comparing the environmental competences of future teachers undergoing training in two universities are presented. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the difference in the acquisition of environmental competences amongst two groups of students enrolled in two…

Studies on young child malnutrition in Iraq: problems and insights, 1990-1999.

PubMed

Garfield, R

2000-09-01

Many reports on Iraq proclaimed a rise in rates of death and disease since the Gulf War of January/February 1991. Several of the studies on nutritional status are not readily accessible, and few have been compared to identify secular trends. Here, 27 studies examining nutrition among Iraqi children in the 1990s are reviewed. Only five studies were found to be of comparable methodologic quality. These are analyzed to identify major trends in child nutrition between August 1991 and June 1999. Limitations of existing studies and recommendations for future studies are discussed.

Stress and suicidal ideation among adolescents having academic difficulty.

PubMed

Arun, Priti; Garg, Rohit; Chavan, Bir Singh

2017-01-01

Academically typically achieving adolescents were compared with students having academic difficulty on stress and suicidal ideas. In a cross-sectional study, 75 academically typically achieving adolescents were compared with 105 students with academic difficulty and 52 students with specific learning disability (SLD). Academic functioning was assessed using teacher's screening instrument, intelligence quotient, and National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences index for SLD. Stress and suicidal ideas were assessed using general health questionnaire, suicide risk-11, and Mooney Problem Checklist (MPC). Appropriate statistical methods were applied. Three groups were comparable on age, gender, mother's working status, being only child, nuclear family, self-reported academic decline, and type of school. About half of adolescents reported psychological problems on General Health Questionnaire (mean score >3 in all the groups). Academically typically achieving adolescents showed higher stressors in peer relationships, planning for future and suicidal ideation compared to adolescents with academic difficulty. Adolescents face stress regarding worry about examinations, family not understanding what child has to do in school, unfair tests, too much work in some subjects, afraid of failure in school work, not spending enough time in studies, parental expectations, wanting to be more popular, worried about a family member, planning for the future, and fear of the future. Significant positive correlation was seen between General Health Questionnaire scores and all four subscales of MPC. Suicidal ideas showed a negative correlation with MPC. Adolescents experience considerable stress in multiple areas irrespective of their academic ability and performance. Hence, assessment and management of stress among adolescents must extend beyond academic difficulties.

Stress and suicidal ideation among adolescents having academic difficulty

PubMed Central

Arun, Priti; Garg, Rohit; Chavan, Bir Singh

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Academically typically achieving adolescents were compared with students having academic difficulty on stress and suicidal ideas. Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 75 academically typically achieving adolescents were compared with 105 students with academic difficulty and 52 students with specific learning disability (SLD). Academic functioning was assessed using teacher's screening instrument, intelligence quotient, and National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences index for SLD. Stress and suicidal ideas were assessed using general health questionnaire, suicide risk-11, and Mooney Problem Checklist (MPC). Appropriate statistical methods were applied. Results: Three groups were comparable on age, gender, mother's working status, being only child, nuclear family, self-reported academic decline, and type of school. About half of adolescents reported psychological problems on General Health Questionnaire (mean score >3 in all the groups). Academically typically achieving adolescents showed higher stressors in peer relationships, planning for future and suicidal ideation compared to adolescents with academic difficulty. Adolescents face stress regarding worry about examinations, family not understanding what child has to do in school, unfair tests, too much work in some subjects, afraid of failure in school work, not spending enough time in studies, parental expectations, wanting to be more popular, worried about a family member, planning for the future, and fear of the future. Significant positive correlation was seen between General Health Questionnaire scores and all four subscales of MPC. Suicidal ideas showed a negative correlation with MPC. Interpretations and Conclusions: Adolescents experience considerable stress in multiple areas irrespective of their academic ability and performance. Hence, assessment and management of stress among adolescents must extend beyond academic difficulties. PMID:29456324

Office Skills: Time Management Skills for Future Office Workers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mott, Dennis L.

1980-01-01

Compares two time studies which investigated time problems of office assistants and managerial personnel. Suggests that improving performance in the following five areas will help time management: plan, "prioritize," set deadlines, follow through, and think. (LRA)

What is the need for comparative effectiveness studies in IBD?

PubMed

Flasar, Mark H; Cross, Raymond K

2014-11-01

Unlike traditional clinical trial research, Comparative Effectiveness Research seeks to determine what is 'best' for a typical patient when deciding between effective options used in daily practice - a therapy, diagnostic test, or course of action. There is a clear need for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Inflammatory Bowel Disease, a point emphasized by the Institute of Medicine and supported by governmental agencies and escalating funding. This review highlights the rationale and support for Comparative Effectiveness Research, provides examples of Comparative Effectiveness Research in Inflammatory Bowel Disease, and outlines current and future focus for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Preliminary design of the beam screen cooling for the Future Circular Collider of hadron beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotnig, C.; Tavian, L.

2015-12-01

Following recommendations of the recent update of the European strategy in particle physics, CERN has undertaken an international study of possible future circular colliders beyond the LHC. This study considers an option for a very high energy (100 TeV) hadron-hadron collider located in a quasi-circular underground tunnel having a circumference of 80 to 100 km. The synchrotron radiation emitted by the high-energy hadron beam increases by more than two orders of magnitude compared to the LHC. To reduce the entropic load on the superconducting magnets’ refrigeration system, beam screens are indispensable to extract the heat load at a higher temperature level. After illustrating the decisive constraints of the beam screen's refrigeration design, this paper presents a preliminary design of the length of a continuous cooling loop comparing helium and neon, for different cooling channel geometries with emphasis on the cooling length limitations and the exergetic efficiency.

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

PubMed

Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

Comparison of Scientific Research Projects of Education Faculties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altunay, Esen; Tonbul, Yilmaz

2015-01-01

Many studies indicate that knowledge and knowledge production are the main predictors of social development, welfare and the ability to face the future with confidence. It could be argued that knowledge production is mainly carried out by universities. This study compares 1266 scientific research projects (SRPs) completed by faculties of education…

Value of information analysis optimizing future trial design from a pilot study on catheter securement devices.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Reynolds, Heather; Gordon, Louisa G; Rickard, Claire M; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-12-01

Value of information analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach, which is based on type I and type II errors, in determining sample sizes for randomized clinical trials. However, in addition to sample size calculation, value of information analysis can optimize other aspects of research design such as possible comparator arms and alternative follow-up times, by considering trial designs that maximize the expected net benefit of research, which is the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of additional information. To apply value of information methods to the results of a pilot study on catheter securement devices to determine the optimal design of a future larger clinical trial. An economic evaluation was performed using data from a multi-arm randomized controlled pilot study comparing the efficacy of four types of catheter securement devices: standard polyurethane, tissue adhesive, bordered polyurethane and sutureless securement device. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize uncertainty surrounding the study results and to calculate the expected value of additional information. To guide the optimal future trial design, the expected costs and benefits of the alternative trial designs were estimated and compared. Analysis of the value of further information indicated that a randomized controlled trial on catheter securement devices is potentially worthwhile. Among the possible designs for the future trial, a four-arm study with 220 patients/arm would provide the highest expected net benefit corresponding to 130% return-on-investment. The initially considered design of 388 patients/arm, based on hypothesis testing calculations, would provide lower net benefit with return-on-investment of 79%. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses were based on the data from a single pilot trial which might affect the accuracy of our uncertainty estimation. Another limitation was that different follow-up durations for the larger trial were not evaluated. The value of information approach allows efficient trial design by maximizing the expected net benefit of additional research. This approach should be considered early in the design of randomized clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2014.

Toward Accurate and Quantitative Comparative Metagenomics

PubMed Central

Nayfach, Stephen; Pollard, Katherine S.

2016-01-01

Shotgun metagenomics and computational analysis are used to compare the taxonomic and functional profiles of microbial communities. Leveraging this approach to understand roles of microbes in human biology and other environments requires quantitative data summaries whose values are comparable across samples and studies. Comparability is currently hampered by the use of abundance statistics that do not estimate a meaningful parameter of the microbial community and biases introduced by experimental protocols and data-cleaning approaches. Addressing these challenges, along with improving study design, data access, metadata standardization, and analysis tools, will enable accurate comparative metagenomics. We envision a future in which microbiome studies are replicable and new metagenomes are easily and rapidly integrated with existing data. Only then can the potential of metagenomics for predictive ecological modeling, well-powered association studies, and effective microbiome medicine be fully realized. PMID:27565341

Toward Accurate and Quantitative Comparative Metagenomics.

PubMed

Nayfach, Stephen; Pollard, Katherine S

2016-08-25

Shotgun metagenomics and computational analysis are used to compare the taxonomic and functional profiles of microbial communities. Leveraging this approach to understand roles of microbes in human biology and other environments requires quantitative data summaries whose values are comparable across samples and studies. Comparability is currently hampered by the use of abundance statistics that do not estimate a meaningful parameter of the microbial community and biases introduced by experimental protocols and data-cleaning approaches. Addressing these challenges, along with improving study design, data access, metadata standardization, and analysis tools, will enable accurate comparative metagenomics. We envision a future in which microbiome studies are replicable and new metagenomes are easily and rapidly integrated with existing data. Only then can the potential of metagenomics for predictive ecological modeling, well-powered association studies, and effective microbiome medicine be fully realized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

Effectiveness of cigarette warning labels: examining the impact of graphics, message framing, and temporal framing.

PubMed

Nan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiaoquan; Yang, Bo; Iles, Irina

2015-01-01

This study examines the effectiveness of cigarette warning labels, with a specific focus on the impact of graphics, message framing (gain vs. loss), and temporal framing (present-oriented vs. future-oriented) among nonsmokers in the United States. A controlled experiment (N = 253) revealed that graphic warning labels were perceived as more effective, stronger in argument strength, and were generally liked more compared to text-only labels. In addition, loss-framed labels, compared to their gain-framed counterparts, were rated higher in perceived effectiveness, argument strength, and liking. No significant difference was observed between the present- and future-oriented frames on any of the dependent variables. Implications of the findings for antismoking communication efforts are discussed.

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 1: Analysis of current air cargo system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burby, R. J.; Kuhlman, W. H.

1978-01-01

The material presented in this volume is classified into the following sections; (1) analysis of current routes; (2) air eligibility criteria; (3) current direct support infrastructure; (4) comparative mode analysis; (5) political and economic factors; and (6) future potential market areas. An effort was made to keep the observations and findings relating to the current systems as objective as possible in order not to bias the analysis of future air cargo operations reported in Volume 3 of the CLASS final report.

The Future Impact of Vietnam Era Veterans on Inpatient Acute Care and Mental Health Product Lines at a Veterans Affairs Medical Center

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-06-20

smoothing and regression which includes curve fitting are two principle forecasting model types utilized in the vast majority of forecasting applications ... model were compared against the VA Office of Policy and Planning forecasting study commissioned with the actuarial firm of Milliman & Robertson (M & R... Application to the Veterans Healthcare System The development of a model to forecast future VEV needs, utilization, and cost of the Acute Care and

Brain Imaging, Forward Inference, and Theories of Reasoning

PubMed Central

Heit, Evan

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities. PMID:25620926

Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.

PubMed

Heit, Evan

2014-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization

PubMed Central

Låftman, Sara B.; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-01-01

Future orientation can be defined as an individual’s thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents’ future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15–16 years) (n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying. PMID:29584631

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization.

PubMed

Låftman, Sara B; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-03-27

Future orientation can be defined as an individual's thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents' future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15-16 years) ( n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying.

Suicide Risk Associated with Experience of Violence and Impulsivity in Alcohol Dependent Patients.

PubMed

Khemiri, Lotfi; Jokinen, Jussi; Runeson, Bo; Jayaram-Lindström, Nitya

2016-01-19

Alcohol dependence (AD) and aggression-impulsivity are both associated with increased suicide risk. There is a need to evaluate clinical tools in order to improve suicide risk assessment of AD patients. The present study consisted of 95 individuals with a diagnosis of AD, consecutively admitted for addiction treatment, compared with 95 healthy controls. Suicidal risk was assessed together with exposure of violence and impulsivity. AD patients reported significantly higher rates of exposure to violence in childhood, as measured by the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), compared to HC. Within the AD group, individuals with history of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior reported higher levels of violence experience compared to AD individuals without such history. AD patients with previous suicidal ideation scored higher on self-reported impulsivity as assessed by the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS). Our main finding was that experience of trauma and expression of violent behavior, coupled with increased impulsivity are associated with an elevated suicide risk in AD patients. Future longitudinal studies assessing these traits are needed to evaluate their potential role in identifying AD patients at risk of future suicide.

Suicide Risk Associated with Experience of Violence and Impulsivity in Alcohol Dependent Patients

PubMed Central

Khemiri, Lotfi; Jokinen, Jussi; Runeson, Bo; Jayaram-Lindström, Nitya

2016-01-01

Alcohol dependence (AD) and aggression-impulsivity are both associated with increased suicide risk. There is a need to evaluate clinical tools in order to improve suicide risk assessment of AD patients. The present study consisted of 95 individuals with a diagnosis of AD, consecutively admitted for addiction treatment, compared with 95 healthy controls. Suicidal risk was assessed together with exposure of violence and impulsivity. AD patients reported significantly higher rates of exposure to violence in childhood, as measured by the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), compared to HC. Within the AD group, individuals with history of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior reported higher levels of violence experience compared to AD individuals without such history. AD patients with previous suicidal ideation scored higher on self-reported impulsivity as assessed by the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS). Our main finding was that experience of trauma and expression of violent behavior, coupled with increased impulsivity are associated with an elevated suicide risk in AD patients. Future longitudinal studies assessing these traits are needed to evaluate their potential role in identifying AD patients at risk of future suicide. PMID:26784730

Assessing corrosion of MSE wall reinforcement.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

The primary objective of this study was to extract reinforcement coupons from select MSE walls and document the extent of corrosion. In doing this, a baseline has been established against which coupons extracted in the future can be compared. A secon...

EVA Human Health and Performance Benchmarking Study Overview and Development of a Microgravity Protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Jarvis, Sarah; Bekdash, Omar; Cupples, Scott; Abercromby, Andrew

2017-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a protocol to reliably characterize human health and performance metrics for individuals working inside various EVA suits under realistic spaceflight conditions. Expected results and methodologies developed during this study will provide the baseline benchmarking data and protocols with which future EVA suits and suit configurations (e.g., varied pressure, mass, center of gravity [CG]) and different test subject populations (e.g., deconditioned crewmembers) may be reliably assessed and compared. Results may also be used, in conjunction with subsequent testing, to inform fitness-for-duty standards, as well as design requirements and operations concepts for future EVA suits and other exploration systems.

Impact of Brief Intervention Services on Drug Using Truant Youth Arrest Charges over Time

PubMed Central

Dembo, Richard; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Wareham, Jennifer; Schmeidler, James; Winters, Ken C.; Barrett, Kimberly; Ungaro, Rocio; Karas, Lora M.; Belenko, Steven

2012-01-01

School truancy is a serious concern in the U.S., with far-reaching negative consequences. Truancy has been positively associated with substance use and delinquent behavior; however, research is limited. Consequently, the Truancy Brief Intervention Project was established to treat and prevent substance use and other risky behaviors among truants. This article examines whether the Brief Intervention program is more effective in preventing future delinquency over a 12-month follow-up period, than the standard truancy program. Results indicate the Brief Intervention was marginally significant in effecting future delinquency among truants, compared to the standard truancy program. Future implications of this study are discussed. PMID:25382960

Distinguishing between Unipolar Depression and Bipolar Depression: Current and Future Clinical and Neuroimaging Perspectives

PubMed Central

de Almeida, Jorge Renner Cardoso; Phillips, Mary Louise

2012-01-01

Differentiating bipolar disorder (BD) from recurrent unipolar depression (UD) is a major clinical challenge. Main reasons for this include the higher prevalence of depressive relative to hypo/manic symptoms during the course of BD illness and the high prevalence of subthreshold manic symptoms in both BD and UD depression. Identifying objective markers of BD might help improve accuracy in differentiating between BD and UD depression, to ultimately optimize clinical and functional outcome for all depressed individuals. Yet, only eight neuroimaging studies to date directly compared UD and BD depressed individuals. Findings from these studies suggest more widespread abnormalities in white matter connectivity and white matter hyperintensities in BD than UD depression, habenula volume reductions in BD but not UD depression, and differential patterns of functional abnormalities in emotion regulation and attentional control neural circuitry in the two depression types. These findings suggest different pathophysiologic processes, especially in emotion regulation, reward and attentional control neural circuitry in BD versus UD depression. This review thereby serves as a “call to action” to highlight the pressing need for more neuroimaging studies, using larger samples sizes, comparing BD and UD depressed individuals. These future studies should also include dimensional approaches, studies of at risk individuals, and more novel neuroimaging approaches, such as, connectivity analysis and machine learning. Ultimately, these approaches might provide biomarkers to identify individuals at future risk for BD versus UD, and biological targets for more personalized treatment and new treatment developments for BD and UD depression. PMID:22784485

Health-Risk Behaviour in Deprived Neighbourhoods Compared with Non-Deprived Neighbourhoods: A Systematic Literature Review of Quantitative Observational Studies.

PubMed

Algren, Maria Holst; Bak, Carsten Kronborg; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Andersen, Pernille Tanggaard

2015-01-01

There has been increasing interest in neighbourhoods' influence on individuals' health-risk behaviours, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet. The aim of this review was to systematically review recent studies on health-risk behaviour among adults who live in deprived neighbourhoods compared with those who live in non-deprived neighbourhoods and to summarise what kind of operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation that were used in the studies. PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. Systematic searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Sociological Abstracts using relevant search terms, Boolean operators, and truncation, and reference lists were scanned. Quantitative observational studies that examined health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods were eligible for inclusion. The inclusion criteria were met by 22 studies. The available literature showed a positive association between smoking and physical inactivity and living in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods. In regard to low fruit and vegetable consumption and alcohol consumption, the results were ambiguous, and no clear differences were found. Numerous different operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation were used in the studies. Substantial evidence indicates that future health interventions in deprived neighbourhoods should focus on smoking and physical inactivity. We suggest that alcohol interventions should be population based rather than based on the specific needs of deprived neighbourhoods. More research is needed on fruit and vegetable consumption. In future studies, the lack of a uniform operationalisation of neighbourhood deprivation must be addressed.

A Comparative Study of the Liberal Arts Tradition and Confucian Tradition in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Baoyan

2017-01-01

In contrast to the continued decline and bleak future of liberal arts education and liberal arts colleges in Europe and America, there has been a revival of the liberal arts model in Asian countries in recent years. This paper compares the liberal arts tradition of education in the West and Confucian tradition of education in the East, in the…

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

PubMed

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models. PMID:25501852

Prospect of future housing and risk of psychological distress at 1 year after an earthquake disaster.

PubMed

Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki

2016-04-01

Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P < 0.01) and those who were unable to make any future housing plans (OR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.4-2.5, P < 0.01) exhibited a significantly higher risk of psychological distress compared with subjects who had already settled in permanent housing. In this study, subjects whose future housing prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Power systems for future missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gill, S. P.; Frye, P. E.; Littman, Franklin D.; Meisl, C. J.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive scenario of future missions was developed and applicability of different power technologies to these missions was assessed. Detailed technology development roadmaps for selected power technologies were generated. A simple methodology to evaluate economic benefits of current and future power system technologies by comparing Life Cycle Costs of potential missions was developed. The methodology was demonstrated by comparing Life Cycle Costs for different implementation strategies of DIPS/CBC technology to a selected set of missions.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Positive affect, meaning in life, and future time perspective: an application of socioemotional selectivity theory.

PubMed

Hicks, Joshua A; Trent, Jason; Davis, William E; King, Laura A

2012-03-01

Four studies tested the prediction that positive affect (PA) would relate more strongly to meaning in life (MIL) as a function of perceived time limitations. In Study 1 (N = 360), adults completed measures of PA and MIL. As predicted, PA related more strongly to MIL for older, compared to younger, participants. In Studies 2 and 3, adults (N = 514) indicated their current position in their life span, and rated their MIL. PA, whether naturally occurring (Study 2) or induced (Study 3), was a stronger predictor of MIL for individuals who perceived themselves as having a limited amount of time left to live. Finally, in Study 4 (N = 98) students completed a measure of PA, MIL, and future time perspective (FTP). Results showed that PA was more strongly linked to MIL for those who believed they had fewer opportunities left to pursue their goals. Overall, these findings suggest that the experience of PA becomes increasingly associated with the experience of MIL as the perception of future time becomes limited. The contribution of age related processes to judgments of well-being are discussed.

The Acquisition of Mathematics Pedagogical Content Knowledge in University Mathematics Education Courses: Results of a Mixed Methods Study on the Effectiveness of Teacher Education in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchholtz, Nils Frederik

2017-01-01

This paper reports on a longitudinal mixed methods evaluation study on the acquisition and development of mathematical pedagogical content knowledge (MPCK) of future teachers at several German universities. The study is a German supplementary study to the international comparative TEDS-M 2008 study. Besides the pedagogical content knowledge that…

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Quantifying the intra-annual uncertainties in climate change assessment over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is an inevitable feature of climate change impact assessments. Understanding and quantifying different sources of uncertainty is of high importance, which can help modeling agencies improve the current models and scenarios. In this study, we have assessed the future changes in three climate variables (i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US. To conduct the study, 10 statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs from two downscaling methods (i.e. BCSD and MACA) were utilized at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for the historical period of 1970-2000 and future period of 2010-2099. For the future projections, two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Furthermore, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to develop a probabilistic future projection for each climate variable. Results indicate superiority of BMA simulations compared to individual models. Increasing temperature and precipitation are projected at annual timescale. However, the changes are not uniform among different seasons. Model uncertainty shows to be the major source of uncertainty, while downscaling uncertainty significantly contributes to the total uncertainty, especially in summer.

Age, gender and deterrability: Are younger male drivers more likely to discount the future?

PubMed

Freeman, James; Kaye, Sherrie-Anne; Truelove, Verity; Davey, Jeremy

2017-07-01

Utilizing the Classical Deterrence theory and Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualized model of deterrence, the current study examined whether age, gender, and discounting the future tendencies influence perceptions of being apprehended for speeding offences. Licensed motorists (N=700; 57% female) in Queensland (Australia) were recruited to complete a self-report questionnaire that measured perceptual deterrence, speeding related behaviors and discounting the future tendencies. Data were analyzed utilizing descriptive, bivariate and multivariate regressions. Significant (albeit weak) positive correlations were found between age and perceptions of apprehension certainty. Males were significantly more likely to report higher incidences of speeding (including while avoiding detection) compared to females. In contrast, females were more likely to perceive high levels of apprehension certainty and consider impending penalties to be more severe. At a multivariate level, discounting the future tendencies (in addition to being male, reporting lower levels of perceptual severity and swiftness, and more instances of punishment avoidance) were predictive of lower perceptual certainty levels. This study is one of the first to reveal that being male and having a tendency to discount the consequences of the future may directly influence drivers' perceptual deterrence levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Use of E-supervision to Support Speech-Language Pathology Graduate Students during Student Teaching Practica

PubMed Central

Carlin, Charles H.; Boarman, Katie; Carlin, Emily; Inselmann, Karissa

2013-01-01

In the present feasibility study, e-supervision was used to provide university liaison supervision to speech-language pathology (SLP) graduate students enrolled in student teaching practica. Utilizing a mixed methodology approach, interview and survey data were compared in order to identify similarities and differences between in-person and e-supervision, and guide future practice. Results showed e-supervised graduate students perceived that they received adequate supervision, feedback, support, and communication. Further, e-supervision provided additional benefits to supervisors, children on the caseload, and universities. Despite the benefits, disadvantages emerged. Implications for future practice and limitations of the study were identified. PMID:25945215

Efficient concepts for large erectable space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Card, M. F.; Bush, H. G.; Heard, W. L., Jr.; Mikulas, M. M., Jr.

1978-01-01

The status of Langley Research Center development of the nestable column concept is reviewed including results of member and truss component tests, and planned assembly studies. In addition, more recent studies of alternative member concepts are presented. Preliminary results on relative efficiency of several types of truss-type columns are compared and future test plans discussed.

TWO-WEEK INHALATION EXPOSURE OF RATS TO LIBBY AMPHIBOLE (LA) AND AMOSITE ASBESTOS

EPA Science Inventory

The relative potency of LA compared to UICC amosite was assessed in a subacute inhalation study designed to set exposure levels for a future subchronic study. Male F344 rats (n=7/group) were exposed nose-only to air (control), 3 concentrations of LA, or I concentration of amosite...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Criteria for evaluating a State's proposed NEPA-Like process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2) A...) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including recreation and open... (residential, commercial, institutional and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Criteria for evaluating a State's proposed NEPA-Like process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2) A...) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including recreation and open... (residential, commercial, institutional and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart L of... - Criteria for Evaluating a State's Proposed NEPA-Like Process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2... impacts; (4) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including relevant... (residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Criteria for evaluating a State's proposed NEPA-Like process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2) A...) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including recreation and open... (residential, commercial, institutional and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Criteria for evaluating a State's proposed NEPA-Like process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2) A...) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including recreation and open... (residential, commercial, institutional and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart K of... - Criteria for evaluating a State's proposed NEPA-Like process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2) A...) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including recreation and open... (residential, commercial, institutional and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart L of... - Criteria for Evaluating a State's Proposed NEPA-Like Process

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... the SERP will adequately consider: (1) Designation of a study area comparable to the final system; (2... impacts; (4) Present and future conditions; (5) Land use and other social parameters including relevant... (residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial) within the project study area; and (8) Other...

Video Feedback in Key Word Signing Training for Preservice Direct Support Staff

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rombouts, Ellen; Meuris, Kristien; Maes, Bea; De Meyer, Anne-Marie; Zink, Inge

2016-01-01

Purpose: Research has demonstrated that formal training is essential for professionals to learn key word signing. Yet, the particular didactic strategies have not been studied. Therefore, this study compared the effectiveness of verbal and video feedback in a key word signing training for future direct support staff. Method: Forty-nine future…

Academic Libraries: "Social" or "Communal?" The Nature and Future of Academic Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gayton, Jeffrey T.

2008-01-01

The apparent death of academic libraries, as measured by declining circulation of print materials, reduced use of reference services, and falling gate counts, has led to calls for a more "social" approach to academic libraries: installing cafes, expanding group study spaces, and developing "information commons." This study compares these social…

Future Law Enforcement Officers and Social Workers: Perceptions of Domestic Violence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMullan, Elizabeth C.; Carlan, Philip E.; Nored, Lisa S.

2010-01-01

This study compares perceptions of domestic violence for college students planning to work in law enforcement with students aspiring to careers in social work and non-law-enforcement criminal justice (N = 491). The study involves students attending four public universities across one Southern state who completed a survey (spring of 2006) measuring…

Patterns, Drivers and Challenges Pertaining to Postgraduate Taught Study: An International Comparative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Michelle

2014-01-01

The global growth in postgraduate (PG) study since the mid-1990s has been attributed to the expansion in Masters by Coursework participation (Bekhradnia, B. (2005). Postgraduate education in the UK: Trends and challenges higher education policy institute. Paper presented at a conference "The future of postgraduate education supporting the…

Attitudes towards collaboration and servant leadership among nurses, physicians and residents.

PubMed

Garber, Jeannie Scruggs; Madigan, Elizabeth A; Click, Elizabeth R; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

2009-07-01

A descriptive, comparative study was conducted to examine the attitudes of nurses, physicians and residents towards collaboration and to assess their self-perception of servant leadership characteristics. The Jefferson Scale of Attitudes toward Physician-Nurse Collaboration and the Barbuto-Wheeler Servant Leadership Questionnaire were utilized for data collection. Registered nurses (RNs) (n = 2,660), physicians (n = 447) and residents (n = 171) in a Southeastern United States health system were surveyed via the intranet; there were 497 responses for analysis. The response rate should be considered and generalizations made with caution regarding the study results. RN scores were higher for both total scores and subscales as compared to physician/resident groups for collaboration and servant leadership. There was a weak positive correlation between collaboration and servant leadership in the RN group and no significant correlation between the variables in the physician/resident group. Findings from this study have implications for nursing and physician education and practice and may serve as a framework for future studies. Representative samples are needed to gain further insight and to guide future research.

A comparative psychophysical approach to visual perception in primates.

PubMed

Matsuno, Toyomi; Fujita, Kazuo

2009-04-01

Studies on the visual processing of primates, which have well developed visual systems, provide essential information about the perceptual bases of their higher-order cognitive abilities. Although the mechanisms underlying visual processing are largely shared between human and nonhuman primates, differences have also been reported. In this article, we review psychophysical investigations comparing the basic visual processing that operates in human and nonhuman species, and discuss the future contributions potentially deriving from such comparative psychophysical approaches to primate minds.

Kinetic analysis of contralateral liver hypertrophy after radioembolization of primary and metastatic liver tumors.

PubMed

Orcutt, Sonia T; Abuodeh, Yazan; Naghavi, Arash; Frakes, Jessica; Hoffe, Sarah; Kis, Bela; Anaya, Daniel A

2018-05-01

Radioembolization induces liver hypertrophy, although the extent and rate of hypertrophy are unknown. Our goal was to examine the kinetics of contralateral liver hypertrophy after transarterial radioembolization. A retrospective study (2010-2014) of treatment-naïve patients with primary/secondary liver malignancies undergoing right lobe radioembolization was performed. Computed tomography volumetry was performed before and 1, 3, and 6 months after radioembolization. Outcomes of interest were left lobe (standardized future liver remnant) degree of hypertrophy, kinetic growth rate, and ability to reach goal standardized future liver remnant ≥40%. Medians were compared with the Kruskall-Wallis test. Time to event analysis was used to estimate time to reach goal standardized future liver remnant. In the study, 25 patients were included. At 1, 3, and 6 months, median degree of hypertrophy was 4%, 8%, and 12% (P < .001), degree of hypertrophy relative to baseline future liver remnants was 11%, 17%, and 31% (P = .015), and kinetic growth rate was 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.4%/week (P = .002). In patients with baseline standardized future liver remnant <40% (N= 16), median time to reach standardized future liver remnant ≥40% was 7.3 months, with 75% accomplishing standardized future liver remnant ≥40% at 8.2 months. Radioembolization induces hypertrophy of the contralateral lobe to a similar extent as existing methods, although at a lower rate. The role of radioembolization as a dual therapy (neoadjuvant and hypetrophy-inducing) for selected patients needs to be studied. (Surgery 2017;160:XXX-XXX.). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Randomised Multi-centre Study to Compare the Long-term Performance of the Future Hip to 3 Other Implants in Primary Total Hip Replacement

ClinicalTrials.gov

2016-10-06

Osteoarthritis; Post-traumatic Arthritis; Collagen Disorders; Avascular Necrosis; Traumatic Femoral Fractures; Nonunion of Femoral Fractures; Congenital Hip Dysplasia; Slipped Capital Femoral Epiphysis; Perthes Disease

Episodic and Semantic Memory Contribute to Familiar and Novel Episodic Future Thinking.

PubMed

Wang, Tong; Yue, Tong; Huang, Xi Ting

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates that episodic future thinking (EFT) relies on both episodic and semantic memory; however, event familiarity may importantly affect the extent to which episodic and semantic memory contribute to EFT. To test this possibility, two behavioral experiments were conducted. In Experiment 1, we directly compared the proportion of episodic and semantic memory used in an EFT task. The results indicated that more episodic memory was used when imagining familiar future events compared with novel future events. Conversely, significantly more semantic memory was used when imagining novel events compared with familiar events. Experiment 2 aimed to verify the results of Experiment 1. In Experiment 2, we found that familiarity moderated the effect of priming the episodic memory system on EFT; particularly, it increased the time required to construct a standard familiar episodic future event, but did not significantly affect novel episodic event reaction time. Collectively, these findings support the hypothesis that event familiarity importantly moderates episodic and semantic memory's contribution to EFT.

Ego depletion and positive illusions: does the construction of positivity require regulatory resources?

PubMed

Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Frey, Dieter

2007-09-01

Individuals frequently exhibit positive illusions about their own abilities, their possibilities to control their environment, and future expectations. The authors propose that positive illusions require resources of self-control, which is considered to be a limited resource similar to energy or strength. Five studies revealed that people with depleted self-regulatory resources indeed exhibited a less-optimistic sense of their own abilities (Study 1), a lower sense of subjective control (Study 2), and less-optimistic expectations about their future (Study 3). Two further studies shed light on the underlying psychological process: Ego-depleted (compared to nondepleted) individuals generated/retrieved less positive self-relevant attributes (Studies 4 and 5) and reported a lower sense of general self-efficacy (Study 5), which both partially mediated the impact of ego depletion on positive self-views (Study 5).

History of preterm birth and subsequent cardiovascular disease: a systematic review.

PubMed

Robbins, Cheryl L; Hutchings, Yalonda; Dietz, Patricia M; Kuklina, Elena V; Callaghan, William M

2014-04-01

A history of preterm birth (PTB) may be an important lifetime risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women. We identified all peer-reviewed journal articles that met study criteria (English language, human studies, female, and adults ≥19 years old), that were found in the PubMed/MEDLINE databases, and that were published between Jan. 1, 1995, and Sept. 17, 2012. We summarized 10 studies that assessed the association between having a history of PTB and subsequent CVD morbidity or death. Compared with women who had term deliveries, women with any history of PTB had increased risk of CVD morbidity (variously defined; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] ranged from 1.2-2.9; 2 studies), ischemic heart disease (aHR, 1.3-2.1; 3 studies), stroke (aHR, 1.7; 1 study), and atherosclerosis (aHR, 4.1; 1 study). Four of 5 studies that examined death showed that women with a history of PTB have twice the risk of CVD death compared with women who had term births. Two studies reported statistically significant higher risk of CVD-related morbidity and death outcomes (variously defined) among women with ≥2 pregnancies that ended in PTBs compared with women who had at least 2 births but which ended in only 1 PTB. Future research is needed to understand the potential impact of enhanced monitoring of CVD risk factors in women with a history of PTB on risk of future CVD risk. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

History of preterm birth and subsequent cardiovascular disease: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Robbins, Cheryl L.; Hutchings, Yalonda; Dietz, Patricia M.; Kuklina, Elena V.; Callaghan, William M.

2015-01-01

A history of preterm birth (PTB) may be an important lifetime risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women. We identified all peer-reviewed journal articles that met study criteria (English language, human studies, female, and adults ≥19 years old), that were found in the PubMed/MEDLINE databases, and that were published between Jan. 1, 1995, and Sept. 17, 2012. We summarized 10 studies that assessed the association between having a history of PTB and subsequent CVD morbidity or death. Compared with women who had term deliveries, women with any history of PTB had increased risk of CVD morbidity (variously defined; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] ranged from 1.2e2.9; 2 studies), ischemic heart disease (aHR, 1.3e2.1; 3 studies), stroke (aHR, 1.7; 1 study), and atherosclerosis (aHR, 4.1; 1 study). Four of 5 studies that examined death showed that women with a history of PTB have twice the risk of CVD death compared with women who had term births. Two studies reported statistically significant higher risk of CVD—rerelated morbidity and death outcomes (variously defined) among women with —2 pregnancies that ended in PTBs compared with women who had at least 2 births but which ended in only 1 PTB. Future research is needed to understand the potential impact of enhanced monitoring of CVD risk factors in women with a history of PTB on risk of future CVD risk. PMID:24055578

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luca, Alejandro Di; Evans, Jason P.; Ji, Fei

2017-10-01

In this study we evaluate the ability of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model simulations to represent snow cover characteristics over the Australian Alps and go on to asses future projections of snowpack characteristics. Our results show that the ensemble presents a cold temperature bias and overestimates total precipitation leading to a general overestimation of the snow cover as compared with MODIS satellite data. We then produce a new set of snowpack characteristics by running a temperature based snow melt/accumulation model forced by bias corrected temperature and precipitation fields. While some positive snow cover biases remain, the bias corrected (BC) dataset show large improvements regarding the simulation of total amounts, seasonality and spatial distribution of the snow cover compared with MODIS products. Both the raw and BC datasets are then used to assess future changes in the snowpack characteristics. Both datasets show robust increases in near-surface temperatures and decreases in snowfall that lead to a substantial reduction of the snowpack over the Australian Alps. The snowpack decreases by about 15 and 60% by 2030 and 2070 respectively. While the BC data introduce large differences in the simulation of the present climate snowpack, in relative terms future changes appear to be similar to those obtained using the raw data. Future temperature projections show a clear dependence with elevation through the snow-albedo feedback effect that affects snowpack projections. Uncertainties in future projections of the snowpack are large in both datasets and are mainly dominated by the choice of the lateral boundary conditions.

Do future thoughts reflect personal goals? Current concerns and mental time travel into the past and future.

PubMed

Cole, Scott N; Berntsen, Dorthe

2016-01-01

Our overriding hypothesis was that future thinking would be linked with goals to a greater extent than memories; conceptualizing goals as current concerns (i.e., uncompleted personal goals). We also hypothesized that current-concern-related events would differ from non-current-concern-related events on a set of phenomenological characteristics. We report novel data from a study examining involuntary and voluntary mental time travel using an adapted laboratory paradigm. Specifically, after autobiographical memories or future thoughts were elicited (between participants) in an involuntary and voluntary retrieval mode (within participants), participants self-generated five current concerns and decided whether each event was relevant or not to their current concerns. Consistent with our hypothesis, compared with memories, a larger percentage of involuntary and voluntary future thoughts reflected current concerns. Furthermore, events related to current concerns differed from non-concern-related events on a range of cognitive, representational, and affective phenomenological measures. These effects were consistent across temporal direction. In general, our results agree with the proposition that involuntary and voluntary future thinking is important for goal-directed cognition and behaviour.

A comparison of metrics to evaluate the effects of hydro-facility passage stressors on fish

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Colotelo, Alison H.; Goldman, Amy E.; Wagner, Katie A.

Hydropower is the most common form of renewable energy, and countries worldwide are considering expanding hydropower to new areas. One of the challenges of hydropower deployment is mitigation of the environmental impacts including water quality, habitat alterations, and ecosystem connectivity. For fish species that inhabit river systems with hydropower facilities, passage through the facility to access spawning and rearing habitats can be particularly challenging. Fish moving downstream through a hydro-facility can be exposed to a number of stressors (e.g., rapid decompression, shear forces, blade strike and collision, and turbulence), which can all affect fish survival in direct and indirect ways.more » Many studies have investigated the effects of hydro-turbine passage on fish; however, the comparability among studies is limited by variation in the metrics and biological endpoints used. Future studies investigating the effects of hydro-turbine passage should focus on using metrics and endpoints that are easily comparable. This review summarizes four categories of metrics that are used in fisheries research and have application to hydro-turbine passage (i.e., mortality, injury, molecular metrics, behavior) and evaluates them based on several criteria (i.e., resources needed, invasiveness, comparability among stressors and species, and diagnostic properties). Additionally, these comparisons are put into context of study setting (i.e., laboratory vs. field). Overall, injury and molecular metrics are ideal for studies in which there is a need to understand the mechanisms of effect, whereas behavior and mortality metrics provide information on the whole body response of the fish. The study setting strongly influences the comparability among studies. In laboratory-based studies, stressors can be controlled by both type and magnitude, allowing for easy comparisons among studies. In contrast, field studies expose fish to realistic passage environments but the comparability is limited. Based on these results, future studies, whether lab or field-based, should focus on metrics that relate to mortality for ease of comparison.« less

The future excess fraction of occupational cancer among those exposed to carcinogens at work in Australia in 2012.

PubMed

Carey, Renee N; Hutchings, Sally J; Rushton, Lesley; Driscoll, Timothy R; Reid, Alison; Glass, Deborah C; Darcey, Ellie; Si, Si; Peters, Susan; Benke, Geza; Fritschi, Lin

2017-04-01

Studies in other countries have generally found approximately 4% of current cancers to be attributable to past occupational exposures. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer resulting from current occupational exposures in Australia. The future excess fraction method was used to estimate the future burden of occupational cancer (2012-2094) among the proportion of the Australian working population who were exposed to occupational carcinogens in 2012. Calculations were conducted for 19 cancer types and 53 cancer-exposure pairings, assuming historical trends and current patterns continued to 2094. The cohort of 14.6 million Australians of working age in 2012 will develop an estimated 4.8 million cancers during their lifetime, of which 68,500 (1.4%) are attributable to occupational exposure in those exposed in 2012. The majority of these will be lung cancers (n=26,000), leukaemias (n=8000), and malignant mesotheliomas (n=7500). A significant proportion of future cancers will result from occupational exposures. This estimate is lower than previous estimates in the literature; however, our estimate is not directly comparable to past estimates of the occupational cancer burden because they describe different quantities - future cancers in currently exposed versus current cancers due to past exposures. The results of this study allow us to determine which current occupational exposures are most important, and where to target exposure prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exposing the dark sector with future Z factories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jia; Wang, Lian-Tao; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Xue, Wei

2018-05-01

We investigate the prospects of searching dark sector models via exotic Z -boson decay at future e+e- colliders with Giga Z and Tera Z options. Four general categories of dark sector models, Higgs portal dark matter, vector-portal dark matter, inelastic dark matter, and axionlike particles, are considered. Focusing on channels motivated by the dark sector models, we carry out a model-independent study of the sensitivities of Z factories in probing exotic decays. The limits on branching ratios of the exotic Z decay are typically O (10-6- 10-8.5) for the Giga Z and O (10-7.5- 10-11) for the Tera Z , and they are compared with the projection for the high luminosity LHC. We demonstrate that future Z factories can provide its unique and leading sensitivity and highlight the complementarity with other experiments, including the indirect and direct dark matter search limits and the existing collider limits. Future Z factories will play a leading role in uncovering the hidden sector of the Universe in the future.

Urinary Sugars--A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake.

PubMed

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-07-15

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies.

Urinary Sugars—A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake

PubMed Central

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-01-01

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies. PMID:26184307

Japanese and Korean Nursing Students' Motivation for Joining Disaster Relief Activities as Nurses in the Future.

PubMed

Choe, Myoung-Ae; Kuwano, Noriko; Bang, Kyung-Sook; Cho, Mi-Kyoung; Yatsushiro, Rika; Kawata, Yuki

The purpose of this study was to identify differences in motivation for joining disaster relief activities as a nurse in the future between Japanese and Korean nursing students. A descriptive 2-group comparative study design was used. The participants were 721 first- to fourth-year nursing students (Japanese, n = 324; Korean, n = 397). From June to September 2014, data were collected through a researcher-administered questionnaire and self-reported answers. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the χ test, and the t test.No significant difference was found between Japanese and Korean students in motivation to join domestic relief activities should a disaster occur in the area in which they lived. Compared with Korean students, Japanese students strongly agreed that it is necessary to carry out relief work across borders when disasters occur in foreign countries (p = .001). Meanwhile, Japanese students showed less motivation than Korean students to join relief activities in other domestic areas and foreign countries (p = .020).The results of this study suggest that the motivation of Japanese students to join disaster relief activities as nurses in the future should a disaster occur in other domestic areas and foreign countries needs to be increased. The results also suggest that undergraduate students should be well prepared for disasters through disaster nursing education, including practical training, disaster drills, and simulation.

Pilot evaluation of a media literacy program for tobacco prevention targeting early adolescents shows mixed results.

PubMed

Kaestle, Christine E; Chen, Yvonnes; Estabrooks, Paul A; Zoellner, Jamie; Bigby, Brandon

2013-01-01

The purpose of this pilot study was to assess the impact of media literacy for tobacco prevention for youth delivered through a community site. A randomized pretest-posttest evaluation design with matched-contact treatment and control conditions. The pilot study was delivered through the YMCA in a lower-income suburban and rural area of Southwest Virginia, a region long tied, both economically and culturally, to the tobacco industry. Children ages 8 to 14 (76% white, 58% female) participated in the study (n = 38). The intervention was an antismoking media literacy program (five 1-hour lessons) compared with a matched-contact creative writing control program. General media literacy, three domains of tobacco-specific media literacy ("authors and audiences," "messages and meanings," and "representation and reality"), tobacco attitudes, and future expectations were assessed. Multiple regression modeling assessed the impact of the intervention, controlling for pretest measures, age, and sex. General media literacy and tobacco-specific "authors and audiences" media literacy improved significantly for treatment compared with control (p < .05); results for other tobacco-specific media literacy measures and for tobacco attitudes were not significant. Future expectations of smoking increased significantly for treatment participants ages 10 and younger (p < .05). Mixed results indicated that improvements in media literacy are accompanied by an increase in future expectations to smoke for younger children.

Exploring the Role of Methodological Factors in Publishing Turkish and Foreign Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solak, Ekrem

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze and compare recent research papers on foreign language education in Turkish context with those published in international context to shed light on researchers and policy makers for future studies. This study filled a gap in this field and also aimed to increase the rate of acceptance of research papers…

Environmental Literacy of Pre-Service Teachers in Israel: A Comparison between Students at the Onset and End of Their Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yavetz, Bela; Goldman, Daphne; Pe'er, Sara

2009-01-01

The adequate preparation of teacher education students in environmental education is a prerequisite for their future ability to design and implement effective environmental education. This longitudinal study compared the environmental literacy of 214 students at the onset and towards the end of their studies, in three academic colleges of…

Computed tomographic and cross-sectional anatomy of the normal pacu (Colossoma macroponum).

PubMed

Carr, Alaina; Weber, E P Scott; Murphy, Chris J; Zwingenberger, Alison

2014-03-01

The purpose of this study was to compare and define the normal cross-sectional gross and computed tomographic (CT) anatomy for a species of boney fish to better gain insight into the use of advanced diagnostic imaging for future clinical cases. The pacu (Colossoma macropomum) was used because of its widespread presence in the aquarium trade, its relatively large body size, and its importance in the research and aquaculture settings. Transverse 0.6-mm CT images of three cadaver fish were obtained and compared to corresponding frozen cross sections of the fish. Relevant anatomic structures were identified and labeled at each level; the Hounsfield unit density of major organs was established. The images presented good anatomic detail and provide a reference for future research and clinical investigation.

Variances in the projections, resulting from CLIMEX, Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Solhjouy-fard, Samaneh

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm ( Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations, especially in correlative models such as MX, BRT, and RF. Intersections between different techniques may decrease uncertainty in future distribution projections. However, readers should not miss the fact that the uncertainties are mostly because the future GHG emission scenarios are unknowable with sufficient precision. Suggestions towards methodology and processing for improving projections are included.

Impaired Flow-Mediated Dilation Before, During and After Preeclampsia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Weissgerber, Tracey L.; Milic, Natasa M.; Milin-Lazovic, Jelena S.; Garovic, Vesna D.

2015-01-01

Endothelial dysfunction is believed to play a critical role in preeclampsia, however it is unclear whether this dysfunction precedes the pregnancy or is caused by early pathophysiological events. It is also unclear for how long vascular dysfunction may persist post-partum, and whether it represents a mechanism linking preeclampsia with future cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to determine whether women with preeclampsia have worse vascular function compared to women who did not have preeclampsia by performing systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that examined endothelial dysfunction using flow-mediated dilation (FMD). We included studies published before May 29, 2015 that examined FMD before, during and after preeclampsia. Differences in FMD between study groups were evaluated by standardized mean differences. Out of 610 abstracts identified through PubMED, EMBASE and Web of Science, 37 studies were eligible for the meta-analysis. When compared to women who did not have preeclampsia, women who had preeclampsia had lower FMD prior to the development of preeclampsia (~20–29 weeks gestation), at the time of preeclampsia, and for three years post-partum, with the estimated magnitude of the effect ranging between 0.5 and 3 standard deviations. Similar effects were observed when the analysis was limited to studies that excluded women with chronic hypertension, smokers, or both. Vascular dysfunction predates preeclampsia and may contribute to its pathogenesis. Future studies should address whether vascular changes that persist after preeclamptic pregnancies may represent a mechanistic link with the increased risk for future cardiovascular disease. PMID:26711737

Overgeneral past and future thinking in dysphoria: the role of emotional cues and cueing methodology.

PubMed

Anderson, Rachel J; Boland, Jennifer; Garner, Sarah R

2016-01-01

Overgeneral memory, where individuals exhibit difficulties in retrieving specific episodes from autobiographical memory, has been consistently linked with emotional disorders. However, the majority of this literature has relied upon a single methodology, in which participants respond to emotional cue words with explicit instructions to retrieve/simulate specific events. Through the use of sentence completion tasks the current studies explored whether overgenerality represents a habitual pattern of thinking that extends to how individuals naturally consider their personal past and future life story. In both studies, when compared with controls, dysphoric individuals evidenced overgeneral thinking style with respect to their personal past. However, overgeneral future thinking was only evident when the sentence stems included emotional words. These findings highlight the importance of investigating the overgenerality phenomenon using a variety of cueing techniques and results are discussed with reference to the previous literature exploring overgenerality and cognitive models of depression.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

The impacts of repeated cold exposure on insects.

PubMed

Marshall, Katie E; Sinclair, Brent J

2012-05-15

Insects experience repeated cold exposure (RCE) on multiple time scales in natural environments, yet the majority of studies of the effects of cold on insects involve only a single exposure. Three broad groups of experimental designs have been employed to examine the effects of RCE on insect physiology and fitness, defined by the control treatments: 'RCE vs cold', which compares RCE with constant cold conditions; 'RCE vs warm', which compares RCE with constant warm conditions; and 'RCE vs matched cold' which compares RCE with a prolonged period of cold matched by time to the RCE condition. RCE are generally beneficial to immediate survival, and increase cold hardiness relative to insects receiving a single prolonged cold exposure. However, the effects of RCE depend on the study design, and RCE vs warm studies cannot differentiate between the effects of cold exposure in general vs RCE in particular. Recent studies of gene transcription, immune function, feeding and reproductive output show that the responses of insects to RCE are distinct from the responses to single cold exposures. We suggest that future research should attempt to elucidate the mechanistic link between physiological responses and fitness parameters. We also recommend that future RCE experiments match the time spent at the stressful low temperature in all experimental groups, include age controls where appropriate, incorporate a pilot study to determine time and intensity of exposure, and measure sub-lethal impacts on fitness.

Dense home-based recordings reveal typical and atypical development of tense/aspect in a child with delayed language development.

PubMed

Chin, Iris; Goodwin, Matthew S; Vosoughi, Soroush; Roy, Deb; Naigles, Letitia R

2018-01-01

Studies investigating the development of tense/aspect in children with developmental disorders have focused on production frequency and/or relied on short spontaneous speech samples. How children with developmental disorders use future forms/constructions is also unknown. The current study expands this literature by examining frequency, consistency, and productivity of past, present, and future usage, using the Speechome Recorder, which enables collection of dense, longitudinal audio-video recordings of children's speech. Samples were collected longitudinally in a child who was previously diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, but at the time of the study exhibited only language delay [Audrey], and a typically developing child [Cleo]. While Audrey was comparable to Cleo in frequency and productivity of tense/aspect use, she was atypical in her consistency and production of an unattested future form. Examining additional measures of densely collected speech samples may reveal subtle atypicalities that are missed when relying on only few typical measures of acquisition.

The promise of a better group future: Cognitive alternatives increase students' self-efficacy and academic performance.

PubMed

Iyer, Aarti; Zhang, Airong; Jetten, Jolanda; Hao, Zhen; Cui, Lijuan

2017-12-01

Drawing on classic social identity theorizing (Tajfel, Differentiation between social groups: Studies in the social psychology of intergroup relations, London, UK, Academic Press, 1978), we propose that low-status minority group members' self-efficacy and performance on intellectual tasks can be enhanced by prompting them to believe in a better future for their group (i.e., increasing awareness of cognitive alternatives to the existing low-status position). Study 1 manipulated cognitive alternatives among 157 migrant workers' children in China, showing that self-efficacy was enhanced in the high compared to the low cognitive alternative condition. Study 2 extended this experimental finding among 114 migrant workers' children: Participants in the high cognitive alternative condition performed better on mathematics and attention tasks than did participants in the low cognitive alternative condition. Results highlight the power of believing in a better future for the collective as a means of enhancing self-efficacy and educational outcomes among members of disadvantaged groups. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Present, Future, and Novel Bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region

PubMed Central

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space. PMID:23526985

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy and multiple daily insulin injections in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a comparative overview and future horizons.

PubMed

Thabit, Hood; Hovorka, Roman

2016-01-01

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy is currently accepted as a treatment strategy for type 1 diabetes. Transition from multiple daily injection therapy (MDI; including basal-bolus regimens) to CSII is based on expectations of better metabolic control and fewer hypoglycaemic events. Evidence to date has not been always conclusive. Evidence for CSII and MDI in terms of glycaemic control, hypoglycaemia and psychosocial outcomes is reviewed in the adult and paediatric population with type 1 diabetes. Findings from studies on threshold-based insulin pump suspension and predictive low glucose management (PLGM) are outlined. Limitations of current CSII application and future technological developments are discussed. Glycaemic control and quality of life (QOL) may be improved by CSII compared to MDI depending on baseline HbA1c and hypoglycaemia rates. Future studies are expected to provide evidence on clinical and cost effectiveness in those who will benefit the most. Training, structured education and support are important to benefit from CSII. Novel technological approaches linking continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and CSII may help mitigate against frequent hypoglycaemia in those at risk. Development of glucose-responsive automated closed-loop insulin delivery systems may reduce the burden of disease management and improve outcomes in type 1 diabetes.

CRISPR-Cas9 for medical genetic screens: applications and future perspectives.

PubMed

Xue, Hui-Ying; Ji, Li-Juan; Gao, Ai-Mei; Liu, Ping; He, Jing-Dong; Lu, Xiao-Jie

2016-02-01

CRISPR-Cas9 (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats-CRISPR associated nuclease 9) systems have emerged as versatile and convenient (epi)genome editing tools and have become an important player in medical genetic research. CRISPR-Cas9 and its variants such as catalytically inactivated Cas9 (dead Cas9, dCas9) and scaffold-incorporating single guide sgRNA (scRNA) have been applied in various genomic screen studies. CRISPR screens enable high-throughput interrogation of gene functions in health and diseases. Compared with conventional RNAi screens, CRISPR screens incur less off-target effects and are more versatile in that they can be used in multiple formats such as knockout, knockdown and activation screens, and can target coding and non-coding regions throughout the genome. This powerful screen platform holds the potential of revolutionising functional genomic studies in the near future. Herein, we introduce the mechanisms of (epi)genome editing mediated by CRISPR-Cas9 and its variants, introduce the procedures and applications of CRISPR screen in functional genomics, compare it with conventional screen tools and at last discuss current challenges and opportunities and propose future directions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Shared cognitive processes underlying past and future thinking: the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on event specificity.

PubMed

Anderson, Rachel J; Dewhurst, Stephen A; Nash, Robert A

2012-03-01

Recent literature has argued that whereas remembering the past and imagining the future make use of shared cognitive substrates, simulating future events places heavier demands on executive resources. These propositions were explored in 3 experiments comparing the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on speed and accuracy of past event retrieval and future event simulation. Results provide support for the suggestion that both past and future episodes can be constructed through 2 mechanisms: a noneffortful "direct" pathway and a controlled, effortful "generative" pathway. However, limited evidence emerged for the suggestion that simulating of future, compared with retrieving past, episodes places heavier demands on executive resources; only under certain conditions did it emerge as a more error prone and lengthier process. The findings are discussed in terms of how retrieval and simulation make use of the same cognitive substrates in subtly different ways. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Comparative genomic analysis of novel bacteriophages infecting Vibrio parahaemolyticus isolated from western and southern coastal areas of Korea.

PubMed

Yu, Junhyeok; Lim, Jeong-A; Kwak, Su-Jin; Park, Jong-Hyun; Chang, Hyun-Joo

2018-05-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, a foodborne pathogen, has become resistant to antibiotics. Therefore, alternative bio-control agents such bacteriophage are urgently needed for its control. Six novel bacteriophages specific to V. parahaemolyticus (vB_VpaP_KF1~2, vB_VpaS_KF3~6) were characterized at the molecular level in this study. Genomic similarity analysis revealed that these six bacteriophages could be divided into two groups with different genomic features, phylogenetic grouping, and morphologies. Two groups of bacteriophages had their own genes with different mechanisms for infection, assembly, and metabolism. Our results could be used as a future reference to study phage genomics or apply phages in future bio-control studies.

Remembering the past and imagining the future: attachment effects on production of episodic details in close relationships.

PubMed

Cao, Xiancai; Madore, Kevin P; Wang, Dahua; Schacter, Daniel L

2018-09-01

Attachment theories and studies have shown that Internal Working Models (IWMs) can impact autobiographical memory and future-oriented information processing relevant to close relationships. According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis (CESH), both remembering the past and imagining the future rely on episodic memory. We hypothesised that one way IWMs may bridge past experiences and future adaptations is via episodic memory. The present study investigated the association between attachment and episodic specificity in attachment-relevant and attachment-irrelevant memory and imagination among young and older adults. We measured the attachment style of 37 young adults and 40 older adults, and then asked them to remember or imagine attachment-relevant and attachment-irrelevant events. Participants' narratives were coded for internal details (i.e., episodic) and external details (e.g., semantic, repetitions). The results showed that across age group, secure individuals generated more internal details and fewer external details in attachment-relevant tasks compared to attachment-irrelevant tasks; these differences were not observed in insecure individuals. These findings support the CESH and provide a new perspective to understand the function of IWMs.

What to do on spring break? The role of predicted, on-line, and remembered experience in future choice.

PubMed

Wirtz, Derrick; Kruger, Justin; Napa Scollon, Christie; Diener, Ed

2003-09-01

When individuals choose future activities on the basis of their past experiences, what guides those choices? The present study compared students' predicted, on-line, and remembered spring-break experiences, as well as the influence of these factors on students' desire to take a similar vacation in the future. Predicted and remembered experiences were both more positive-and, paradoxically, more negative-than on-line experiences. Of key importance, path analyses revealed that remembered experience, but neither on-line nor anticipated experience, directly predicted the desire to repeat the experience. These results suggest that although on-line measures may be superior to retrospective measures for approximating objective experience, retrospective measures may be superior for predicting choice.

Children's Gender Identity in Lesbian and Heterosexual Two-Parent Families.

PubMed

Bos, Henny; Sandfort, Theo G M

2010-01-01

This study compared gender identity, anticipated future heterosexual romantic involvement, and psychosocial adjustment of children in lesbian and heterosexual families; it was furthermore assessed whether associations between these aspects differed between family types. Data were obtained in the Netherlands from children in 63 lesbian families and 68 heterosexual families. All children were between 8 and 12 years old. Children in lesbian families felt less parental pressure to conform to gender stereotypes, were less likely to experience their own gender as superior and were more likely to be uncertain about future heterosexual romantic involvement. No differences were found on psychosocial adjustment. Gender typicality, gender contentedness and anticipated future heterosexual romantic involvement were significant predictors of psychosocial adjustment in both family types.

The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

2016-12-01

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.

Does a future-oriented temporal perspective relate to body mass index, eating, and exercise? A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sweeney, Allison M; Culcea, Ileana

2017-05-01

The present study aimed to quantify the magnitude of the association between future temporal perspective and Body Mass Index (BMI), diet, and exercise, respectively, and to clarify whether subjective future-focus scales or delay-discounting tasks are a more robust predictor of health behaviors. A systematic search was conducted for studies that included a dispositional measure of future temporal perspective and a measure of BMI, eating, and/or exercise behavior. Effect sizes for BMI, eating, and exercise were calculated using a random-effects model. The aggregate effect sizes for BMI (r = 0.14, k = 36, 95% CI = 0.10 - 0.18, p < 0.001), eating (r = 0.16, k = 18, 95% CI = 0.12-0.21, p < 0.001), and exercise (r = 0.12, k = 18, 95% CI = 0.09-0.14, p < 0.001) were significant and small in magnitude. Neither the type of future temporal perspective task (delay-discounting vs. subjective future-focus scale) nor the percentage of obese participants moderated the effect of temporal perspective on BMI, eating, or exercise. Although small in magnitude, the association between temporal perspective and health outcomes is comparable to other individual differences, such as personality and temperament. Future research is needed to examine how increasing the value placed on future outcomes can be integrated into long-term health behavior change interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang

2017-04-01

Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.

Effectiveness guidance document (EGD) for Chinese medicine trials: a consensus document

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for more Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) on Chinese medicine (CM) to inform clinical and policy decision-making. This document aims to provide consensus advice for the design of CER trials on CM for researchers. It broadly aims to ensure more adequate design and optimal use of resources in generating evidence for CM to inform stakeholder decision-making. Methods The Effectiveness Guidance Document (EGD) development was based on multiple consensus procedures (survey, written Delphi rounds, interactive consensus workshop, international expert review). To balance aspects of internal and external validity, multiple stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, researchers and payers were involved in creating this document. Results Recommendations were developed for “using available data” and “future clinical studies”. The recommendations for future trials focus on randomized trials and cover the following areas: designing CER studies, treatments, expertise and setting, outcomes, study design and statistical analyses, economic evaluation, and publication. Conclusion The present EGD provides the first systematic methodological guidance for future CER trials on CM and can be applied to single or multi-component treatments. While CONSORT statements provide guidelines for reporting studies, EGDs provide recommendations for the design of future studies and can contribute to a more strategic use of limited research resources, as well as greater consistency in trial design. PMID:24885146

Future Time Orientation and Student Expectations: An Empirical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amyx, Douglas; Bristow, Dennis

2004-01-01

Navajo and Anglo college students' time orientation scores from the Future Time Orientation (FTO) Scale (Bristol & Amyx, 1996) were analyzed and compared. Anglo students were found to be significantly more future time oriented in two of the three dimensions: temporal distance and involvement with time. Future time orientation was used to explain…

A Comparative Study of the Determinants of Future Plans and Expectations of Business Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Gregory S.; Schofield, April L.

2018-01-01

Current university juniors and seniors have plans and expectations for after they graduate. In an effort to better understand these plans and expectations, the authors assessed a sample of 334 university students enrolled in business classes. The study examined the impact of three categories of independent variables--family influences, demographic…

The Influence of Delaying Judgments of Learning on Metacognitive Accuracy: A Meta-Analytic Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhodes, Matthew G.; Tauber, Sarah K.

2011-01-01

Many studies have examined the accuracy of predictions of future memory performance solicited through judgments of learning (JOLs). Among the most robust findings in this literature is that delaying predictions serves to substantially increase the relative accuracy of JOLs compared with soliciting JOLs immediately after study, a finding termed the…

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

PubMed

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

Future heat waves and surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

The Complexity of Standing Postural Sway Associates with Future Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The MOBILIZE Boston Study.

PubMed

Zhou, Junhong; Habtemariam, Daniel; Iloputaife, Ikechukwu; Lipsitz, Lewis A; Manor, Brad

2017-06-07

Standing postural control is complex, meaning that it is dependent upon numerous inputs interacting across multiple temporal-spatial scales. Diminished physiologic complexity of postural sway has been linked to reduced ability to adapt to stressors. We hypothesized that older adults with lower postural sway complexity would experience more falls in the future. 738 adults aged ≥70 years completed the Short Physical Performance Battery test (SPPB) test and assessments of single and dual-task standing postural control. Postural sway complexity was quantified using multiscale entropy. Falls were subsequently tracked for 48 months. Negative binomial regression demonstrated that older adults with lower postural sway complexity in both single and dual-task conditions had higher future fall rate (incident rate ratio (IRR) = 0.98, p = 0.02, 95% Confidence Limits (CL) = 0.96-0.99). Notably, participants in the lowest quintile of complexity during dual-task standing suffered 48% more falls during the four-year follow-up as compared to those in the highest quintile (IRR = 1.48, p = 0.01, 95% CL = 1.09-1.99). Conversely, traditional postural sway metrics or SPPB performance did not associate with future falls. As compared to traditional metrics, the degree of multi-scale complexity contained within standing postural sway-particularly during dual task conditions- appears to be a better predictor of future falls in older adults.

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

[Overview of design, implementation and analysis of comparative effectiveness research].

PubMed

Liao, Xing; Xie, Yan-Ming; Tian, Feng; Shen, Hao

2013-03-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has been regarded as a hot topic in health care recently. Many medicalresearchers currently deem CER as a potential powerful instrument for improving the quality of healthcare and cut medical cost. However, in the past, classic efficacy studies are always focusing on comparing one new intervention with placebo under complete controlled environment. Now CER turns to comparing different interventions directly in real world of routine practice. This article reviewed a series of literature about the design, implementation and analysis of CER in order to give a clue for Chinese medicine researchers in future.

Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

2016-04-01

In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

PubMed

Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

2015-01-01

Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research on Internet-Supported Learning: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bekele, Teklu Abate; Menchaca, Michael Paul

2008-01-01

How did the Internet affect learning in higher education? What methodological and theoretical issues characterized research on Internet-Supported Learning (ISL)? What implications existed for future research? A constant comparative, qualitative analysis of 29 studies indicated grade achievement was the prime measure of effectiveness in ISL…

The Elusive Goal of World Literacy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhola, H. S.; And Others

1980-01-01

This issue is devoted to discussions of world literacy and national programs which comparative studies indicate may be used as models for future UNESCO international campaigns. Individual articles explore economic incentives for literacy motivation, radio learning projects, media programs in Jamaica, literacy improvement in Somalia, and a…

A STUDY OF FRINGE BENEFITS.

DTIC Science & Technology

Fringe benefits as a term was coined by the War Labor Board during World War II to describe the various indirect benefits which industry had devised...trends for the future. The appendix contains an analysis of comparative costs of fringe benefits in industry and the military services. (Author)

Current and Future Leaders' Perceptions of Agricultural Biotechnology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wingenbach, Gary J.; Miller, Rene P.

2009-01-01

Were elected state FFA officers' attitudes toward agricultural biotechnology significantly different from elected Texas legislators' attitudes about the same topic? The purpose of this study was to determine if differences existed in agricultural biotechnology perceptions or information source preferences when compared by leadership status:…

Flipping Preservice Elementary Teachers' Mathematics Anxieties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dove, Anthony; Dove, Emily

2017-01-01

In preparing future elementary educators in mathematics, helping them overcome their anxieties of mathematics and teaching mathematics is paramount. This study examined how different instructional practices (in-class lecture, flipped learning with teacher-created videos, flipped classroom with Khan Academy videos) compared in improving students'…

Video Feedback in Key Word Signing Training for Preservice Direct Support Staff.

PubMed

Rombouts, Ellen; Meuris, Kristien; Maes, Bea; De Meyer, Anne-Marie; Zink, Inge

2016-04-01

Research has demonstrated that formal training is essential for professionals to learn key word signing. Yet, the particular didactic strategies have not been studied. Therefore, this study compared the effectiveness of verbal and video feedback in a key word signing training for future direct support staff. Forty-nine future direct support staff were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 key word signing training programs: modeling and verbal feedback (classical method [CM]), additional video feedback (+ViF), and additional video feedback and photo reminder (+ViF/R). Signing accuracy and training acceptability were measured 1 week after and 7 months after training. Participants from the +ViF/R program achieved significantly higher signing accuracy compared with the CM group. Acceptability ratings did not differ between any of the groups. Results suggest that at an equal time investment, the programs containing more training components were more effective. Research on the effect of rehearsal on signing maintenance is warranted.

Distinguishing between unipolar depression and bipolar depression: current and future clinical and neuroimaging perspectives.

PubMed

Cardoso de Almeida, Jorge Renner; Phillips, Mary Louise

2013-01-15

Differentiating bipolar disorder (BD) from recurrent unipolar depression (UD) is a major clinical challenge. Main reasons for this include the higher prevalence of depressive relative to hypo/manic symptoms during the course of BD illness and the high prevalence of subthreshold manic symptoms in both BD and UD depression. Identifying objective markers of BD might help improve accuracy in differentiating between BD and UD depression, to ultimately optimize clinical and functional outcome for all depressed individuals. Yet, only eight neuroimaging studies to date have directly compared UD and BD depressed individuals. Findings from these studies suggest more widespread abnormalities in white matter connectivity and white matter hyperintensities in BD than UD depression, habenula volume reductions in BD but not UD depression, and differential patterns of functional abnormalities in emotion regulation and attentional control neural circuitry in the two depression types. These findings suggest different pathophysiologic processes, especially in emotion regulation, reward, and attentional control neural circuitry in BD versus UD depression. This review thereby serves as a call to action to highlight the pressing need for more neuroimaging studies, using larger samples sizes, comparing BD and UD depressed individuals. These future studies should also include dimensional approaches, studies of at-risk individuals, and more novel neuroimaging approaches, such as connectivity analysis and machine learning. Ultimately, these approaches might provide biomarkers to identify individuals at future risk for BD versus UD and biological targets for more personalized treatment and new treatment developments for BD and UD depression. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oxygen Mass Transport in Stented Coronary Arteries.

PubMed

Murphy, Eoin A; Dunne, Adrian S; Martin, David M; Boyle, Fergal J

2016-02-01

Oxygen deficiency, known as hypoxia, in arterial walls has been linked to increased intimal hyperplasia, which is the main adverse biological process causing in-stent restenosis. Stent implantation has significant effects on the oxygen transport into the arterial wall. Elucidating these effects is critical to optimizing future stent designs. In this study the most advanced oxygen transport model developed to date was assessed in two test cases and used to compare three coronary stent designs. Additionally, the predicted results from four simplified blood oxygen transport models are compared in the two test cases. The advanced model showed good agreement with experimental measurements within the mass-transfer boundary layer and at the luminal surface; however, more work is needed in predicting the oxygen transport within the arterial wall. Simplifying the oxygen transport model within the blood flow produces significant errors in predicting the oxygen transport in arteries. This study can be used as a guide for all future numerical studies in this area and the advanced model could provide a powerful tool in aiding design of stents and other cardiovascular devices.

Optimising measurement of health-related characteristics of the built environment: Comparing data collected by foot-based street audits, virtual street audits and routine secondary data sources.

PubMed

Pliakas, Triantafyllos; Hawkesworth, Sophie; Silverwood, Richard J; Nanchahal, Kiran; Grundy, Chris; Armstrong, Ben; Casas, Juan Pablo; Morris, Richard W; Wilkinson, Paul; Lock, Karen

2017-01-01

The role of the neighbourhood environment in influencing health behaviours continues to be an important topic in public health research and policy. Foot-based street audits, virtual street audits and secondary data sources are widespread data collection methods used to objectively measure the built environment in environment-health association studies. We compared these three methods using data collected in a nationally representative epidemiological study in 17 British towns to inform future development of research tools. There was good agreement between foot-based and virtual audit tools. Foot based audits were superior for fine detail features. Secondary data sources measured very different aspects of the local environment that could be used to derive a range of environmental measures if validated properly. Future built environment research should design studies a priori using multiple approaches and varied data sources in order to best capture features that operate on different health behaviours at varying spatial scales. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Emotion regulation and mental health: recent findings, current challenges, and future directions.

PubMed

Berking, Matthias; Wupperman, Peggilee

2012-03-01

In recent years, deficits in emotion regulation have been studied as a putative maintaining factor and promising treatment target in a broad range of mental disorders. This article aims to provide an integrative review of the latest theoretical and empirical developments in this rapidly growing field of research. Deficits in emotion regulation appear to be relevant to the development, maintenance, and treatment of various forms of psychopathology. Increasing evidence demonstrates that deficits in the ability to adaptively cope with challenging emotions are related to depression, borderline personality disorder, substance-use disorders, eating disorders, somatoform disorders, and a variety of other psychopathological symptoms. Unfortunately, studies differ with regard to the conceptualization and assessment of emotion regulation, thus limiting the ability to compare findings across studies. Future research should systematically work to use comparable methods in order to clarify the following: which individuals have; what kinds of emotion regulation difficulties with; which types of emotions; and what interventions are most effective in alleviating these difficulties. Despite some yet to be resolved challenges, the concept of emotion regulation has a broad and significant heuristic value for research in mental health.

Examining the use of comparative and cost-effectiveness analyses in radiology.

PubMed

Goehler, Alexander; Gazelle, G Scott

2014-11-01

This article explores key principles of comparative effectiveness analysis--in particular, how radiologic comparative and cost-effectiveness studies differ from other clinical trials. Exemplary studies are reviewed to show how comparative effectiveness has been implemented in radiology and how future studies might be conducted. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of several additional key themes relevant to quality and value in clinical radiology going forward. Comparative effectiveness is likely to require a paradigm shift in thinking within the discipline. For new radiologic applications to be accepted, we will need to show at least a significant change in treatment planning and at best a meaningful change in patient outcomes. This shift will require a forward-thinking approach to robust evidence generation for new imaging modalities or indications and the inclusion of other modes of value demonstration such as clinical decision support and intelligent data mining.

Design aspects of harmonic drive gear and performance improvement of its by problems identification: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Routh, Bikash

2018-04-01

The present paper aims at review on different aspects of harmonic drive gear to identify literature gap for future research. The present article is started first making the comparative study of harmonic drive gear over conventional gear, highlighting its historical background, its application, limitation etc. and then describing working principle of each and every components of it with detail dimensioning and modelling. The present article is further extended to study the different design aspects i.e. synthesis of tooth profiles, lubrication, stress, strain, torque, load sharing, kinematics error and vibration in details etc., identifying problems and then suggesting future perspective for the performance improvement of harmonic drive gear.

Investigation of Insulation Materials for Future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornell, Peggy A.; Hurwitz, Frances I.; Ellis, David L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2013-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power System (RPS) Technology Advancement Project is developing next generation high temperature insulation materials that directly benefit thermal management and improve performance of RPS for future science missions. Preliminary studies on the use of multilayer insulation (MLI) for Stirling convertors used on the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) have shown the potential benefits of MLI for space vacuum applications in reducing generator size and increasing specific power (W/kg) as compared to the baseline Microtherm HT (Microtherm, Inc.) insulation. Further studies are currently being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) on candidate MLI foils and aerogel composite spacers. This paper presents the method of testing of foils and spacers and experimental results to date.

Investigation of Insulation Materials for Future Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornell, Peggy A.; Hurwitz, Frances I.; Ellis, David L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2013-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Technology Advancement Project is developing next generation high-temperature insulation materials that directly benefit thermal management and improve performance of RPS for future science missions. Preliminary studies on the use of multilayer insulation (MLI) for Stirling convertors used on the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) have shown the potential benefits of MLI for space vacuum applications in reducing generator size and increasing specific power (W/kg) as compared to the baseline Microtherm HT (Microtherm, Inc.) insulation. Further studies are currently being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center on candidate MLI foils and aerogel composite spacers. This paper presents the method of testing of foils and spacers and experimental results to date.

Recent Results and the Future of the NA61/SHINE Strong Interactions Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Łysakowski, B.

NA61/SHINE is a fixed target experiment at the CERN Super-Proton- Synchrotron. The main goals of the experiment are to discover the critical point of strongly interacting matter and study the properties of the onset of deconfnement. In order to reach these goals the collaboration studies hadron production properties in nucleus-nucleus, proton-proton and proton-nucleus interactions. In this talk, recent results on particle production in p+p interactions, as well as Be+Be and Ar+Sc collisions in the SPS energy range are reviewed. The results are compared with available world data. The future of the NA61/SHINE scientifc program is also presented.

Investigation of Unsteady Flow Interaction Between an Ultra-Compact Inlet and a Transonic Fan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hah, Chunill; Rabe, Douglas; Scribben, Angie

2015-01-01

In the present study, unsteady flow interaction between an ultra-compact inlet and a transonic fan stage is investigated. Future combat aircraft require ultra-compact inlet ducts as part of an integrated, advanced propulsion system to improve air vehicle capability and effectiveness to meet future mission needs. The main purpose of the study is to advance the current understanding of the flow interaction between two different ultra-compact inlets and a transonic fan for future design applications. Both URANS and LES approaches are used to calculate the unsteady flow field and are compared with the available measured data. The present study indicates that stall inception is mildly affected by the distortion pattern generated by the inlet with the current test set-up. The numerical study indicates that the inlet distortion pattern decays significantly before it reaches the fan face for the current configuration. Numerical results with a shorter distance between the inlet and fan show that counter-rotating vortices near the rotor tip due to the serpentine diffuser affects fan characteristics significantly.

Patients living with disabilities: The need for high-quality primary care.

PubMed

Lofters, Aisha; Guilcher, Sara; Maulkhan, Niraj; Milligan, James; Lee, Joseph

2016-08-01

To compare the potential risk factors for lower-quality primary care, the potential markers of unmet needs in primary care, and the willingness to participate in future research among primary care patients with versus without physical disabilities. A waiting room survey using a convenience sample. A family health team (FHT) in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont, with a designated Mobility Clinic. A total of 40 patients seen at the FHT Mobility Clinic and 80 patients from the general patient population of the same FHT. Socioeconomic status and social capital, number of self-reported emergency department visits and hospitalizations in the preceding year, and willingness of the patients in the 2 groups to participate in future research studies. Patients from the Mobility Clinic were more than twice as likely to be receiving benefits or social assistance (75.0% vs 32.1%, P < .001), were twice as likely to report an annual household income of less than $40000 (58.6% vs 29.2%, P = .006), and were more likely to report their health status to be fair or poor (42.5% vs 16.2%, P = .002). Half of Mobility Clinic patients had visited the emergency department at least once in the preceding year, compared with 29.7% in the general patient population (P = .027). When asked if they would be willing to provide their health card number in the future so that it could be linked to health care data for research, 82.5% of Mobility Clinic patients agreed versus 55.0% of those in the general patient population (P = .004). In this study, patients with disabilities were at a social disadvantage compared with their peers without disabilities and were more likely to use the emergency department, suggesting that they had unmet health needs. Future research should continue to explore this patient population and to investigate if an interprofessional primary health care team approach focused on patients with disabilities can help to increase quality of care. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

WW Physics at Future e{sup +}e{sup -} Linear Colliders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barklow, Timothy L

Measurements of triple gauge boson couplings and strong electroweak symmetry breaking effects at future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear colliders are reviewed. The results expected from a future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear collider are compared with LHC expectations.

Hypertension in Pregnancy and Future Cardiovascular Event Risk in Siblings.

PubMed

Weissgerber, Tracey L; Turner, Stephen T; Mosley, Thomas H; Kardia, Sharon L R; Hanis, Craig L; Milic, Natasa M; Garovic, Vesna D

2016-03-01

Hypertension in pregnancy is a risk factor for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease. This may reflect an underlying familial predisposition or persistent damage caused by the hypertensive pregnancy. We sought to isolate the effect of hypertension in pregnancy by comparing the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in women who had hypertension in pregnancy and their sisters who did not using the dataset from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy study, which examined the genetics of hypertension in white, black, and Hispanic siblings. This analysis included all sibships with at least one parous woman and at least one other sibling. After gathering demographic and pregnancy data, BP and serum analytes were measured. Disease-free survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with their sisters who did not have hypertension in pregnancy, women who had hypertension in pregnancy were more likely to develop new onset hypertension later in life, after adjusting for body mass index and diabetes (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.27-2.42). A sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy was also associated with an increased risk of hypertension in brothers and unaffected sisters, whereas an increased risk of cardiovascular events was observed in brothers only. These results suggest familial factors contribute to the increased risk of future hypertension in women who had hypertension in pregnancy. Further studies are needed to clarify the potential role of nonfamilial factors. Furthermore, a sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy may be a novel familial risk factor for future hypertension. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Hypertension in Pregnancy and Future Cardiovascular Event Risk in Siblings

PubMed Central

Turner, Stephen T.; Mosley, Thomas H.; Kardia, Sharon L.R.; Hanis, Craig L.; Milic, Natasa M.; Garovic, Vesna D.

2016-01-01

Hypertension in pregnancy is a risk factor for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease. This may reflect an underlying familial predisposition or persistent damage caused by the hypertensive pregnancy. We sought to isolate the effect of hypertension in pregnancy by comparing the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in women who had hypertension in pregnancy and their sisters who did not using the dataset from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy study, which examined the genetics of hypertension in white, black, and Hispanic siblings. This analysis included all sibships with at least one parous woman and at least one other sibling. After gathering demographic and pregnancy data, BP and serum analytes were measured. Disease-free survival was examined using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with their sisters who did not have hypertension in pregnancy, women who had hypertension in pregnancy were more likely to develop new onset hypertension later in life, after adjusting for body mass index and diabetes (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.27–2.42). A sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy was also associated with an increased risk of hypertension in brothers and unaffected sisters, whereas an increased risk of cardiovascular events was observed in brothers only. These results suggest familial factors contribute to the increased risk of future hypertension in women who had hypertension in pregnancy. Further studies are needed to clarify the potential role of nonfamilial factors. Furthermore, a sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy may be a novel familial risk factor for future hypertension. PMID:26315531

Le futur linguistique: temps lineaire ou temps ramifie (The Linguistic Future: Linear or Branching Time)?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Robert

1981-01-01

Discusses the problems posed by a semantic analysis of the future tense in French, addressing particularly its double use as a tense and as a mood. The distinction between linear and branching time, or, certainty and possibility, central to this discussion, leads to a comparative analysis of future and conditional. (MES)

The role of hydrogen as a future solution to energetic and environmental problems for residential buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badea, G.; Felseghi, R. A.; Aşchilean, I.; Rǎboacǎ, S. M.; Şoimoşan, T.

2017-12-01

The concept of sustainable development aims to meet the needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations. In achieving the desideratum "low-carbon energy system", in the domain of energy production, the use of innovative low-carbon technologies providing maximum efficiency and minimum pollution is required. Such technology is the fuel cell; as these will be developed, it will become a reality to obtain the energy based on hydrogen. Thus, hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using different forms of renewable resources becomes a secure and sustainable energy alternative. In this context, in the present paper, a comparative study of two different hybrid power generation systems for residential building placed in Cluj-Napoca was made. In these energy systems have been integrated renewable energies (photovoltaic panels and wind turbine), backup and storage system based on hydrogen (fuel cell, electrolyser and hydrogen storage tank), and, respectively, backup and storage system based on traditional technologies (diesel generator and battery). The software iHOGA was used to simulate the operating performance of the two hybrid systems. The aim of this study was to compare energy, environmental and economic performances of these two systems and to define possible future scenarios of competitiveness between traditional and new innovative technologies. After analyzing and comparing the results of simulations, it can be concluded that the fuel cells technology along with hydrogen, integrated in a hybrid system, may be the key to energy production systems with high energy efficiency, making possible an increased capitalization of renewable energy which have a low environmental impact.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian

2017-02-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar power plants, the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be invariable over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering several decades indeed confirm long-term changes in this quantity. In a previous study (Wild et al. 2015, Solar Energy)1 we examined how the latest generation of climate models (CMIP5) projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, future power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. In the present complementary study, we use the CMIP5 model projections to estimate possible future changes in power output from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems due to changing climate and air pollution levels up to the mid-21th century. The results indicate a potential for future increases in CSP production in many parts of the globe, with few exceptions such as the North of India and the irrelevant polar areas. Compared to the changes in PV production, the estimated future production changes by CSP are larger by a factor of 4.

Prospective time-resolved LCA of fully electric supercap vehicles in Germany.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Benedikt M; Dura, Hanna; Baumann, Manuel J; Weil, Marcel R

2015-07-01

The ongoing transition of the German electricity supply toward a higher share of renewable and sustainable energy sources, called Energiewende in German, has led to dynamic changes in the environmental impact of electricity over the last few years. Prominent scenario studies predict that comparable dynamics will continue in the coming decades, which will further improve the environmental performance of Germany's electricity supply. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is the methodology commonly used to evaluate environmental performance. Previous LCA studies on electric vehicles have shown that the electricity supply for the vehicles' operation is responsible for the major part of their environmental impact. The core question of this study is how the prospective dynamic development of the German electricity mix will affect the impact of electric vehicles operated in Germany and how LCA can be adapted to analyze this impact in a more robust manner. The previously suggested approach of time-resolved LCA, which is located between static and dynamic LCA, is used in this study and compared with several static approaches. Furthermore, the uncertainty issue associated with scenario studies is addressed in general and in relation to time-resolved LCA. Two scenario studies relevant to policy making have been selected, but a moderate number of modifications have been necessary to adapt the data to the requirements of a life cycle inventory. A potential, fully electric vehicle powered by a supercapacitor energy storage system is used as a generic example. The results show that substantial improvements in the environmental repercussions of the electricity supply and, consequentially, of electric vehicles will be achieved between 2020 and 2031 on the basis of the energy mixes predicted in both studies. This study concludes that although scenarios might not be able to predict the future, they should nonetheless be used as data sources in prospective LCA studies, because in many cases historic data appears to be unsuitable for providing realistic information on the future. The time-resolved LCA approach improves the assessment's robustness substantially, especially when nonlinear developments are foreseen in the future scenarios. This allows for a reduction of bias in LCA-based decision making. However, a deeper integration of time-resolved data in the life cycle inventory and the implementation of a more suitable software framework are desirable. The study describes how life cycle assessment's (LCA) robustness can be improved by respecting prospective fluctuations, like the transition of the German electricity mix, in the modeling of the life cycle inventory. It presents a feasible and rather simple process to add time-resolved data to LCA. The study selects 2 different future scenarios from important German studies and processes their data systematically to make them compatible with the requirements of a life cycle inventory. The use of external scenarios as basis for future-oriented LCA is reflected critically. A case study on electric mobility is presented and used to compare historic, prospective static, and prospective time-resolved electricity mix modeling approaches. The case study emphasizes the benefits of time-resolved LCA in direct comparison with the currently used approaches. © 2015 SETAC.

It Gets Better: Future Orientation Buffers the Development of Hopelessness and Depressive Symptoms following Emotional Victimization during Early Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Jessica L.; Connolly, Samantha L.; Liu, Richard T.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

Research consistently has linked hopelessness to a range of negative outcomes, including depression, during adolescence. Although interpersonal stressors such as familial and peer emotional victimization have been found to contribute to hopelessness, less research has examined whether adolescents with a greater tendency to think about and plan for the future (i.e., future orientation) are protected against the development of hopelessness, particularly in the context of negative events. Thus, the current study evaluated whether peer and familial emotional victimization predicted increases in hopelessness more strongly among adolescents with a weaker future orientation than those with a stronger orientation towards the future, and whether hopelessness in turn predicted increases in depression. In a diverse sample of 259 early adolescents (54% female; 51% African American; Mage = 12.86 years), both peer and familial emotional victimization predicted increases in hopelessness more strongly among adolescents with weaker future orientations than among those with stronger future orientations. Further, moderated mediation analyses revealed that hopelessness significantly mediated the relationship between emotional victimization and increases in depressive symptoms more strongly among adolescents with weaker orientations towards the future compared to those with stronger future orientations. These findings indicate that adolescents’ tendency to think about the future may impact whether emotional victimization induces hopelessness and ultimately depressive symptoms during early adolescence. Results have important implications regarding intervention and prevention of depression during the critical developmental period of adolescence. PMID:25052625

It gets better: future orientation buffers the development of hopelessness and depressive symptoms following emotional victimization during early adolescence.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jessica L; Connolly, Samantha L; Liu, Richard T; Stange, Jonathan P; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2015-04-01

Research consistently has linked hopelessness to a range of negative outcomes, including depression, during adolescence. Although interpersonal stressors such as familial and peer emotional victimization have been found to contribute to hopelessness, less research has examined whether adolescents with a greater tendency to think about and plan for the future (i.e., future orientation) are protected against the development of hopelessness, particularly in the context of negative events. Thus, the current study evaluated whether peer and familial emotional victimization predicted increases in hopelessness more strongly among adolescents with a weaker future orientation than those with a stronger orientation towards the future, and whether hopelessness in turn predicted increases in depression. In a diverse sample of 259 early adolescents (54% female; 51% African American; Mage = 12.86 years), both peer and familial emotional victimization predicted increases in hopelessness more strongly among adolescents with weaker future orientations than among those with stronger future orientations. Further, moderated mediation analyses revealed that hopelessness significantly mediated the relationship between emotional victimization and increases in depressive symptoms more strongly among adolescents with weaker orientations towards the future compared to those with stronger future orientations. These findings indicate that adolescents' tendency to think about the future may impact whether emotional victimization induces hopelessness and ultimately depressive symptoms during early adolescence. Results have important implications regarding intervention and prevention of depression during the critical developmental period of adolescence.

Using health technology assessment to identify gaps in evidence and inform study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Turkelson, Charles

2012-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is primarily used as a tool to ensure that clinical and policy decisions are made with the benefit of a systematic analysis of all completed research. This article describes the progress and potential for HTA reports to improve the quality and relevance of future research and to better serve the information needs of patients, clinicians, payers, and other decision makers. We conducted a review of the current published literature and working papers describing past, ongoing, and future initiatives that rely on HTA reports to identify gaps in evidence and improve the design of future research. Although still in a developmental stage, significant progress is under way to improve methods for using HTA reports for the systematic identification of research gaps, prioritization of future research, and improvement of study designs. Several well-defined frameworks have been developed to assist those who produce HTA to become more effective in these additional domains of work. A recurring element of this work is the importance of meaningfully involving stakeholders in the process of defining future research needs and designing studies to address them. Patients, clinicians, and payers are important audiences for completed research and are now recognized as serving an important role in determining what future research is needed. There are substantial opportunities to improve the quality, relevance, and efficiency of clinical research. Recent efforts are beginning to demonstrate the potential to build on the work invested in developing HTA reports to provide a roadmap toward these objectives.

Decentralization in Education in an International Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amelsvoort, H. W. C. H. van; And Others

Education in European countries has been characterized by a tendency toward decentralization and deregulation. The Dutch Ministry of Education commissioned the University of Twente to perform a comparative study of actual and future shifts in tasks, responsibilities, and authority in education in several European countries. This book presents…

The Impact of Recreational Facilities on National Park Landscapes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimmons, Allan K.

1979-01-01

Discusses a study to examine developed acreage in 14 national parks. Total park acreage is compared to service center and campground acreage and total mileage of primary and secondary roads. The most probable future for national park landscapes is maintenance of the status quo. (Author/KC)

Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

Cancer.gov

Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

Development, calibration, and validation of performance prediction models for the Texas M-E flexible pavement design system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

This study was intended to recommend future directions for the development of TxDOTs Mechanistic-Empirical : (TexME) design system. For stress predictions, a multi-layer linear elastic system was evaluated and its validity was : verified by compar...

Environmental Scanning Is Vital to Strategic Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poole, Molly Linda

1991-01-01

Educators involved in strategic planning can use environmental scanning techniques to anticipate social, economic, political, and technological changes that will affect their schools. Compared to more traditional data gathering, environmental scanning is wider in scope and more concerned with anticipating the future and studying the interaction of…

Nomenclature of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes for Oncorhynchus mykiss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graziano, Sara L.; Brown, K.H.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2005-01-01

Congruence of genetic data is critical for comparative and collaborative studies on natural fish populations. A comprehensive list of reported mitochrondrial DNA haplotypes for Oncorhynchus mykiss generated using the S-Phe/P2 primer set is presented as a resource for future investigations of this species.

Uses of Cable Television in Eight Midwestern Communities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gotsch, Constance M.

This study of midwestern cable television systems was designed to accomplish three purposes: (1) compare recommended administration and franchise provisions with actual administration and franchise provisions to see how these policies relate to the future development of educational channels; (2) determine how educators and cable managers work…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Kyoo-Man, E-mail: ha1999@hotmail.com

In Korea, there is a pervasive feeling of invincibility to the point that people and organizations do not believe that disasters can strike them. This has impact on the level of preparedness for disasters. This study aims to delve into how Korea has to change its governmental policies/practices with some private partners' efforts to mitigate disaster risks. A case study was utilized as the major methodology by comparing exclusive management with inclusive management. These two approaches have been comparatively analyzed via four variables, namely the central government, the local governments, the incident commander, and other stakeholders. The major finding ismore » that Korea's practices and policies have to evolve from the current exclusive management into future-oriented inclusive management. Moreover, the importance of communication, cooperation, collaboration, and multi-discipline coordination is discussed. Additionally, the problem of reductionism and equal participation among all stakeholders, as well as the resistance from vested interests, are recognized and elaborated for Korea and the international community. - Highlights: • Only a few stakeholders in Korea believe that disaster can happen to anyone. This study aims to delve into how Korea has to change its current practices to mitigate disaster risks. • To compare exclusive management with inclusive management, we have examined four comparative variables, namely the central government's policy, local government's strategy, the incident commander's post, and other stakeholders' efforts. • The major finding is that Korea's practices and policies have to evolve from the current exclusive management into future-oriented inclusive management.« less

Comparative Cognition: Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

Beran, Michael J.; Parrish, Audrey E.; Perdue, Bonnie M.; Washburn, David A.

2014-01-01

Comparative cognition is the field of inquiry concerned with understanding the cognitive abilities and mechanisms that are evident in nonhuman species. Assessments of animal cognition have a long history, but in recent years there has been an explosion of new research topics, and a general broadening of the phylogenetic map of animal cognition. To review the past of comparative cognition, we describe the historical trends. In regards to the present state, we examine current “hot topics” in comparative cognition. Finally, we offer our unique and combined thoughts on the future of the field. PMID:25419047

Why Can People Jump Higher on the Moon? A Study of What Children Learned from "Corners," a Children's Television Programme.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Maire Messenger

1989-01-01

Reports on a study of a BBC children's television program, "Corners," that was conducted to determine how suitable the program was for its intended audience. Three age groups of children (6-, 7-, and 11-year-olds) were compared, and child development factors and future production decisions are discussed. (10 references) (LRW)

A Comparative Study of Creativity and Cognitive Problem-Solving Strategies of High-IQ and Average Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russo, Christine Fiorella

2004-01-01

This study assessed the creative thinking abilities of high-IQ and average students on fluency, flexibility, originality, and elaboration. Seventeen high-IQ fifth and sixth graders and 20 average fifth and sixth graders were given 4 batteries of Torrance's Verbal and Figural Tests (A and B) as pretests and posttests and three Future Problem…

Altered Neural Circuits Accompany Lower Performance during Narrative Comprehension in Children with Reading Difficulties: An fMRI Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horowitz-Kraus, Tzipi; Buck, Catherine; Dorrmann, Dana

2016-01-01

Narrative comprehension is a linguistic ability that is foundational for future reading ability. The aim of the current study was to examine the neural circuitry of children with reading difficulties (RD) compared to typical readers during a narrative-comprehension task. We hypothesized that due to deficient executive functions, which support…

Uses of Multivariate Analytical Techniques in Online and Blended Business Education: An Assessment of Current Practice and Recommendations for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arbaugh, J. B.; Hwang, Alvin

2013-01-01

Seeking to assess the analytical rigor of empirical research in management education, this article reviews the use of multivariate statistical techniques in 85 studies of online and blended management education over the past decade and compares them with prescriptions offered by both the organization studies and educational research communities.…

A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Music Education Experiences and Ambitions in Two Spanish and English Primary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardcastle, Elinor; Pitts, Stephanie; Aróstegui, José Luis

2017-01-01

A small-scale comparative study of music education provision in two Spanish and English primary schools was carried out in 2013-14, using questionnaires, interviews and observations. The study investigated the musical experiences of the children in the two schools, their ambitions for their musical futures, and the classroom practices and policy…

Science Writing Heuristics Embedded in Green Chemistry: A Tool to Nurture Environmental Literacy among Pre-University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shamuganathana, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

2017-01-01

Existing studies report on the importance of instilling environmental literacy among students from an early stage of schooling to enable them to adopt more pro-environmental behaviors in the near future. This quasi-experimental study was designed to compare the level of environmental literacy among two groups of students: the experimental group (N…

Women: The New Providers. Whirlpool Foundation Study, Part One.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Families and Work Inst., New York, NY.

A study conducted interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,502 women, as well as focus groups across the country, to develop a new portrait of women's views on family, work, society, and the future. On several key questions, their views were compared to a representative group of 460 U.S. men and representative samples of 1,005 women…

[Role of the social support network which influences age of death and physical function of elderly people: study of trends in and outside of Japan and future problems].

PubMed

Kishi, Reiko; Horikawa, Naoko

2004-02-01

Concerning associations between the social support network and physical health of the elderly, longitudinal studies have been conducted using various measurement indexes. The studies indicated that the support network influences on physical function and life expectancy. In this study we compared research papers from Japan and elsewhere that appeared after 1980, from the viewpoint of 1) social support effects, and 2) social network effects, to examine potential problems in the future. The main knowledge obtained was that the receipt of emotional support, wide network size, and participation in social activities reduced the risk of early death and decrease in physical function of elderly people. Sex differences were indicated, and in many cases, the effects were more remarkable in men than women. In addition the positive influence of receiving help from a support network, a major subject of conventional research, the effects of offering help to others and negative findings were also examined. It has been indicated that participation in volunteer groups and offer of support to other people can prevent decrease in physical function or early death. As negative effects, improper instrumental support rather disturbs the mental and physical independence of elderly people. As future issues, it is necessary to focus on both positive/negative and receipt/offer effects of support network, and to clarify how to provide example which best match the life of elderly people by comparing sexes and regions. It is also important to actually apply the knowledge gained from observational studies to prevent the elderly from becoming a condition requiring care, and to develop intervention studies which can increase the social contacts of elderly people at the same time as conducting health education and medical treatment.

Children's success at detecting circular explanations and their interest in future learning.

PubMed

Mills, Candice M; Danovitch, Judith H; Rowles, Sydney P; Campbell, Ian L

2017-10-01

These studies explore elementary-school-aged children's ability to evaluate circular explanations and whether they respond to receiving weak explanations by expressing interest in additional learning. In the first study, 6-, 8-, and 10-year-olds (n = 53) heard why questions about unfamiliar animals. For each question, they rated the quality of single explanations and later selected the best explanation between pairs of circular and noncircular explanations. When judging single explanations, 8- and 10-year-olds, and to some extent 6-year-olds, provided higher ratings for noncircular explanations compared to circular ones. When selecting between pairs of explanations, all age groups preferred noncircular explanations to circular ones, but older children did so more consistently than 6-year-olds. Children who recognized the weakness of the single circular explanations were more interested in receiving additional information about the question topics. In Study 2, all three age groups (n = 87) provided higher ratings for noncircular explanations compared to circular ones when listening to responses to how questions, but older children showed a greater distinction in their ratings than 6-year-olds. Moreover, the link between recognizing circular explanations as weak and interest in future learning could not be accounted for solely by individual differences in verbal intelligence. These findings illustrate the developmental trajectory of explanation evaluation and support that recognition of weak explanations is linked to interest in future learning across the elementary years. Implications for education are discussed.

Uncertainties in hydrological extremes projections and its effects on decision-making processes in an Amazonian sub-basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lazaro Siqueira Junior, Jose

2013-04-01

Uncertainties in Climate Change projections are affected by irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, complicating the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. Through these kinds of analyses it is possible to identify critical issues, which must be deeper studied. For this study we used several future's projections from General Circulation Models to feed a Hydrological Model, applied to the Amazonian sub-basin of Ji-Paraná. Hydrological Model integrations are performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Extreme values analyses are performed to each simulated time series and results are compared with extremes events in present time. A simple approach to identify potential vulnerabilities consists of evaluating the hydrologic system response to climate variability and extreme events observed in the past, comparing them with the conditions projected for the future. Thus it is possible to identify critical issues that need attention and more detailed studies. For the goal of this work, we used socio-economic data from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the Operator of the National Electric System, the Brazilian National Water Agency and scientific and press published information. This information is used to characterize impacts associated to extremes hydrological events in the basin during the present historical time and to evaluate potential impacts in the future face to the different hydrological projections. Results show inter-model variability results in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. The impact of such dispersion is differentiated for different aspects of socio-economic and natural systems and must be carefully addressed in order to help in decision-making processes.

Double elementary Goldstone Higgs boson production in future linear colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yu-Chen; Yue, Chong-Xing; Liu, Zhi-Cheng

2018-03-01

The Elementary Goldstone Higgs (EGH) model is a perturbative extension of the Standard Model (SM), which identifies the EGH boson as the observed Higgs boson. In this paper, we study pair production of the EGH boson in future linear electron positron colliders. The cross-sections in the TeV region can be changed to about ‑27%, 163% and ‑34% for the e+e‑→ Zhh, e+e‑→ νν¯hh and e+e‑→ tt¯hh processes with respect to the SM predictions, respectively. According to the expected measurement precisions, such correction effects might be observed in future linear colliders. In addition, we compare the cross-sections of double SM-like Higgs boson production with the predictions in other new physics models.

Analysis of GMO Plum Plant Culture in System Operations Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercado, Dianne

2017-01-01

GMO plum trees are being evaluated at the Kennedy Space Center as a possible candidate for future space crops. Previously conducted horticultural testing compared the performance of several plum genotypes in controlled environment chambers, resulting in a down-selection to the NASA-11 genotype. Precursory studies determined the water use requirements to sustain the plants as well as the feasibility of grafting non-GMO plum scions onto GMO plum rootstocks of NASA-5, NASA-10, and NASA-11 genotypes. This study follows the growth and horticultural progress of plum trees and in-vitro cultures from August 2017 to November 2017, and provides supplemental support for future GMO plum studies. The presence of Hurricane Irma in early September 2017 resulted in the plants undergoing material deterioration from major changes to their overall horticultural progress.

Episodic Memory: A Comparative Approach

PubMed Central

Martin-Ordas, Gema; Call, Josep

2013-01-01

Historically, episodic memory has been described as autonoetic, personally relevant, complex, context-rich, and allowing mental time travel. In contrast, semantic memory, which is theorized to be free of context and personal relevance, is noetic and consists of general knowledge of facts about the world. The field of comparative psychology has adopted this distinction in order to study episodic memory in non-human animals. Our aim in this article is not only to reflect on the concept of episodic memory and the experimental approaches used in comparative psychology to study this phenomenon, but also to provide a critical analysis of these paradigms. We conclude the article by providing new avenues for future research. PMID:23781179

Spectroscopy of Cosmic Carbon Analogs in Inert-Gas Matrices and in the Gas-Phase: Comparative Results and Perspectives for Astrophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salama, Farid; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recent studies of the spectroscopy of large (up to approx. 50 carbon atoms) neutral and Ionized polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Fullerenes isolated in inert gas matrices will be presented. The advantages and the limitations of matrix isolation spectroscopy for the study of the molecular spectroscopy of interstellar dust analogs will be discussed. The laboratory data will be compared to the astronomical spectra (the interstellar extinction, the diffuse interstellar bands). Finally, the spectra of PAH ions isolated in neon/argon matrices will be compared to the spectra obtained for PAH ion seeded in a supersonic expansion. The astrophysical implications and future perspectives will be discussed.

A Matter of Prior Knowledge: Canadian Young Children's Conceptions about the Future in the Global Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chareka, Ottilia

2010-01-01

Young Canadian boys and girls aged nine to eleven were asked to consider their personal futures, the future of their community and the future of the world. Mixed methods were employed for data collection and analysis. Responses were compared with those given by children in eight countries and the discussion focused on the importance prior…

Cheatgrass percent cover change: Comparing recent estimates to climate change − Driven predictions in the Northern Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.

2016-01-01

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) is a highly invasive species in the Northern Great Basin that helps decrease fire return intervals. Fire fragments the shrub steppe and reduces its capacity to provide forage for livestock and wildlife and habitat critical to sagebrush obligates. Of particular interest is the greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an obligate whose populations have declined so severely due, in part, to increases in cheatgrass and fires that it was considered for inclusion as an endangered species. Remote sensing technologies and satellite archives help scientists monitor terrestrial vegetation globally, including cheatgrass in the Northern Great Basin. Along with geospatial analysis and advanced spatial modeling, these data and technologies can identify areas susceptible to increased cheatgrass cover and compare these with greater sage grouse priority areas for conservation (PAC). Future climate models forecast a warmer and wetter climate for the Northern Great Basin, which likely will force changing cheatgrass dynamics. Therefore, we examine potential climate-caused changes to cheatgrass. Our results indicate that future cheatgrass percent cover will remain stable over more than 80% of the study area when compared with recent estimates, and higher overall cheatgrass cover will occur with slightly more spatial variability. The land area projected to increase or decrease in cheatgrass cover equals 18% and 1%, respectively, making an increase in fire disturbances in greater sage grouse habitat likely. Relative susceptibility measures, created by integrating cheatgrass percent cover and temporal standard deviation datasets, show that potential increases in future cheatgrass cover match future projections. This discovery indicates that some greater sage grouse PACs for conservation could be at heightened risk of fire disturbance. Multiple factors will affect future cheatgrass cover including changes in precipitation timing and totals and increases in freeze-thaw cycles. Understanding these effects can help direct land management, guide scientific research, and influence policy.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Impact of globalization under the ICH guidelines on the conduct of reproductive toxicity studies--report on current status in Japan, Europe and the U.S. by questionnaire survey.

PubMed

Mineshima, Hiroshi; Endo, Yoshihiko; Ogasawara, Hiroyuki; Nishigaki, Keiji; Numa, Toshiaki; Hirano, Fumiya; Matsuzawa, Toshiaki

2004-08-01

We surveyed interpretation of the ICH guidelines concerning reproductive toxicology. Valid responses were obtained from Japan (JPN), Europe (EUR) and the U.S. The results obtained were compared to those at the time of a previous survey targeted at JPN facilities in 1995-1996 as well as compared among all three regions. Compared to the previous survey in Japan, the number of facilities performing toxicokinetics (TK) in rats has slightly increased. This result was considered to represent changes of attitude toward TK in reproductive toxicity studies. Differences in interpretation of the guidelines between JPN, EUR and the US were widely seen. Clear differences were noted in sperm examinations, postnatal tests, fetal examinations, some examinations for F1 animals after culling and TK. Researchers in the West seemed to be interpreting the ICH guidelines more flexibly from the scientific point of view. JPN researchers appeared to interpret the guidelines, including notes, as rigid requirements. Most of the parts which produced different interpretations were the notes in the guidelines. The force of mention in the notes should be defined in the future. In addition, there were doubts about some parts, including notes, which had been found to have become unsuitable for the implementation of studies because of scientific progress or from long experience in using the guidelines. Therefore, updates of the guidelines may be needed in the future as well as the remedy of interpretation by JPN researchers. In JPN, the number of reproductive toxicity studies has decreased. The scanty experience in JPN therefore raises apprehension of appropriate selection and stagnating development of methodology, and might hinder the maintenance of the guidelines. In the future, the cooperation of CROs as well as global collaboration will be essential not only to scientific developments of reproductive toxicology but also updates of the guidelines.

Landscape changes, traditional ecological knowledge and future scenarios in the Alps: A holistic ecological approach.

PubMed

Tattoni, Clara; Ianni, Elena; Geneletti, Davide; Zatelli, Paolo; Ciolli, Marco

2017-02-01

In recent decades, a dramatic landscape change has occurred in the European alpine region: open areas have been naturally recolonized by forests as traditional agricultural and forest activities were reduced and reorganized. Land use changes (LUC) are generally measured through GIS and photo interpretation techniques, but despite many studies focused on this phenomenon and its effects on biodiversity and on the environment in general, there is a lack of information about the transformation of the human-environment connection. The study of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), such as the ability to recognize wild plants used as medicine or food, can suggest how this connection evolved through time and generations. This work investigates the relationship between the natural forest cover expansion that influences the loss of open areas and the loss of TEK. Different data sources and approaches were used to address the topic in all its complexity: a mix of questionnaire investigations, historical maps, GIS techniques and modelling were used to analyse past land use changes and predict future scenarios. The study area, Trentino, Italy, is paradigmatic of the alpine situation, and the land use change in the region is well documented by different studies, which were reviewed and compared in this paper. Our findings suggest that open area loss can be used as a good proxy to highlight the present state and to produce future scenarios of Traditional Ecological Knowledge. This could increase awareness of the loss of TEK in other Alpine regions, where data on TEK are lacking, but where environmental trends are comparable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Past, Present, and Future Volume Estimation Methods for Tennessee

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Alexander Clark; Ray A. Souter

2003-01-01

Forest Inventory and Analysis 1999 survey data for Tennessee were used to compare stem-volume estimates obtained using a previous method, the current method, and newly developed taper models that will be used in the future. Compared to the current method, individual tree volumes were consistently underestimated with the previous method, especially for the hardwoods....

Comparative Analysis of Pedagogical Technologies in the Context of Future Agrarians' Multicultural Education in the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kravets, Ruslan

2015-01-01

In the article the comparative analysis of pedagogical technologies in the USA has been carried out in the context of future agrarians' multicultural education. The essence of traditional and innovative pedagogical technologies and the peculiarities of their realization at higher educational establishments have been viewed. The expediency of…

Writing Across the Curriculum as Applied in an Enrichment Classroom Setting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mielke, Nedra S.

This document describes a project in which elementary school students explored the problems experienced by early pioneers and compared them to similar problems that will face future space pioneers. Comparing a past way of life to the present and future helps students examine and understand change in the physical, social, and cultural environment,…

Future Discounting by Slum-Dwelling Youth versus University Students in Rio de Janeiro

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramos, Dandara; Victor, Tania; Seidl-de-Moura, Maria Lucia; Daly, Martin

2013-01-01

We compared Future Discounting (FD, preference for smaller, sooner rewards over larger, later ones) by 160 Brazilian youth (16-30 years old; 71 women and 89 men). University students and slum-dwelling (favela) youth were compared. Participants completed a monetary FD task, a scale of youngsters' view of their neighborhood, and self-reported…

Childhood Hemorrhagic Stroke: An Important but Understudied Problem

PubMed Central

Lo, Warren

2013-01-01

Hemorrhagic stroke in children occurs more frequently than is commonly appreciated. There are important differences in the factors associated with hemorrhagic stroke in children when compared with adults. These differences likely play a role in the different outcomes, which tend to worsen with age. In this review, we describe the estimated frequency, clinical presentation, acute management of hemorrhagic stroke, and an overview of rehabilitation techniques. We identify key topics for future basic and clinical research. Findings from future studies will help improve our ability to optimize treatment for and long-term rehabilitation of these patients. PMID:21633104

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

2016-09-01

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioural inventory of the giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis).

PubMed

Seeber, Peter A; Ciofolo, Isabelle; Ganswindt, André

2012-11-22

Numerous factors like continuous habitat reduction or fragmentation for free-ranging giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) as well as e.g. suboptimal housing conditions for animals in captivity might lead to behavioural alterations as part of the overall adaptation process to the changing living conditions. In order to facilitate current and future studies on giraffe behaviour, a comprehensive ethogram was compiled based on existing literature, as well as observations on giraffes in the wild (Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe; Entabeni Game Reserve, South Africa), and in captivity (National Zoological Gardens of South Africa, Pretoria). The resulting ethogram lists 65 different behavioural patterns, which were described and grouped into seven categories: General activities, Abnormal repetitive behaviours, General interactions, Bull-Cow behaviour, Bull-Bull behaviour, Cow-Bull behaviour, Maternal behaviours, and Interactions by calves. The behaviours were further described regarding a presumed purpose, particularly with respect to social interactions and sexual behaviour. Contradictory descriptions from previous studies were considered and discussed in comparison with our own observations. This ethogram provides a basis for current and future studies by suggesting a terminology which can be used for harmonizing behavioural observations, thus helping to facilitate comparability of future results. Subsequently, a better understanding of the behavioural ecology of giraffes in the wild as well as in captivity could aid future conservation efforts.

Behavioural inventory of the giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Numerous factors like continuous habitat reduction or fragmentation for free-ranging giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) as well as e.g. suboptimal housing conditions for animals in captivity might lead to behavioural alterations as part of the overall adaptation process to the changing living conditions. In order to facilitate current and future studies on giraffe behaviour, a comprehensive ethogram was compiled based on existing literature, as well as observations on giraffes in the wild (Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe; Entabeni Game Reserve, South Africa), and in captivity (National Zoological Gardens of South Africa, Pretoria). Findings The resulting ethogram lists 65 different behavioural patterns, which were described and grouped into seven categories: General activities, Abnormal repetitive behaviours, General interactions, Bull-Cow behaviour, Bull-Bull behaviour, Cow-Bull behaviour, Maternal behaviours, and Interactions by calves. The behaviours were further described regarding a presumed purpose, particularly with respect to social interactions and sexual behaviour. Contradictory descriptions from previous studies were considered and discussed in comparison with our own observations. Conclusions This ethogram provides a basis for current and future studies by suggesting a terminology which can be used for harmonizing behavioural observations, thus helping to facilitate comparability of future results. Subsequently, a better understanding of the behavioural ecology of giraffes in the wild as well as in captivity could aid future conservation efforts. PMID:23173954

Counterfactual thinking: an fMRI study on changing the past for a better future

PubMed Central

Ma, Ning; Ampe, Lisa; Baetens, Kris; Van Overwalle, Frank

2013-01-01

Recent studies suggest that a brain network mainly associated with episodic memory has a more general function in imagining oneself in another time, place or perspective (e.g. episodic future thought, theory of mind, default mode). If this is true, counterfactual thinking (e.g. ‘If I had left the office earlier, I wouldn’t have missed my train.’) should also activate this network. Present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study explores the common and distinct neural activity of counterfactual and episodic thinking by directly comparing the imagining of upward counterfactuals (creating better outcomes for negative past events) with the re-experiencing of negative past events and the imagining of positive future events. Results confirm that episodic and counterfactual thinking share a common brain network, involving a core memory network (hippocampal area, temporal lobes, midline, and lateral parietal lobes) and prefrontal areas that might be related to mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex) and performance monitoring (right prefrontal cortex). In contrast to episodic past and future thinking, counterfactual thinking recruits some of these areas more strongly and extensively, and additionally activates the bilateral inferior parietal lobe and posterior medial frontal cortex. We discuss these findings in view of recent fMRI evidence on the working of episodic memory and theory of mind. PMID:22403155

Teacher Job Satisfaction and Burnout Viewed through Social Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kitchel, Tracy; Smith, Amy R.; Henry, Anna L.; Robinson, J. Shane; Lawver, Rebecca G.; Park, Travis D.; Schell, Ashley

2012-01-01

Understanding job satisfaction, stress, and burnout within agricultural education has the potential to impact the profession's future. Studying these factors through the theoretical lens of social comparison takes a cultural approach by investigating how agriculture teachers interact with and compare themselves to others. The purpose of this study…

Looking into the Teaching Crystal: Graduate Teaching and the Future of Political Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buehler, Melissa J.; Marcum, Anthony S.

2007-01-01

Few studies address what graduate students actually learn in teacher training courses, or how graduate instructors implement their knowledge of teaching in their classrooms. Our research addresses the apparent divergence among advocacy, training, and actual practice through a comparative analysis of graduate instructor teaching philosophies and…

Longitudinal Examination of Adaptive Behavior in Autism Spectrum Disorders: Influence of Executive Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pugliese, Cara E.; Anthony, Laura Gutermuth; Strang, John F.; Dudley, Katerina; Wallace, Gregory L.; Naiman, Daniel Q.; Kenworthy, Lauren

2016-01-01

This study characterizes longitudinal change in adaptive behavior in 64 children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) without intellectual disability evaluated on multiple occasions, and examines whether prior estimate of executive function (EF) problems predicts future adaptive behavior scores. Compared to standardized estimates…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use. The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for

Preliminary evaluation of AERMOD using site specific stack and ambient sampling data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A cotton ginning industry-supported project was initiated in 2008 to develop a robust particulate matter (PM) dispersion modeling dataset that could be used for evaluating current and future PM dispersion models. This paper compares total PM data collected by the industry-supported study at one gin ...

The Contemporary Property Law Course: A Study of Syllabi.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwall, Roberta Rosenthal; Organ, Jerome M.

1997-01-01

Reports an analysis of content in 40 property law courses, comparing coverage reflected in the syllabi with coverage reflected in a 1976 survey of property teachers, including these topics: adverse possession; estates and future interests; concurrent estates; landlord-tenant law; real estate transactions; easements, covenants, and equitable…

Lunar Surface Mission Operations Scenario and Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Larissa S.; Torney, Susan E.; Rask, John Doug; Bleisath, Scott A.

2006-01-01

Planetary surface operations have been studied since the last visit of humans to the Moon, including conducting analog missions. Mission Operations lessons from these activities are summarized. Characteristics of forecasted surface operations are compared to current human mission operations approaches. Considerations for future designs of mission operations are assessed.

Distance Education Strategy: Mental Models and Strategic Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, John C.; Seagren, Alan T.

2004-01-01

What issues do distance education (DE) leaders believe will influence the future of DE? What are their colleges' DE strategies? This qualitative study compares DE strategic thinking and strategic choices at three community colleges. Two propositions are investigated: (1) each college's DE leaders use common strategic mental models (ways of…

Freeze tolerance of perennial ryegrass and implications for future species distribution.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter hardiness is one of the factors limiting the use of the palatable and productive cool-season forage grass Lolium perenne L, perennial ryegrass, in the northeastern United States. We performed a screening study to compare freeze tolerance, one component of winter hardiness, among thirteen comm...

Proactive and Preventive Coping in Adjustment to College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gan, Yiqun; Hu, Yueqin; Zhang, Yiwen

2010-01-01

The current study compared the relative importance of proactive coping and preventive coping in the adjustment to university life among 403 freshmen at a Chinese university and evaluated the function of proactive coping in the stress process. Participants completed the Future-Oriented Coping Inventory (Gan, Yang, Zhou, & Zhang, 2007), the…

Heavy flavor results at RHIC - A comparative overview

DOE PAGES

Dong, Xin

2012-01-01

I review the latest heavy flavor measurements at RHIC experiments. Measurements from RHIC together with preliminary results from LHC offer us an opportunity to systematically study the sQGP medium properties. In the end, I will outlook a prospective future on precision heavy flavor measurements with detector upgrades at RHIC.

'Stories' or 'snapshots'? A study directed at comparing qualitative and quantitative approaches to curriculum evaluation.

PubMed

Pateman, B; Jinks, A M

1999-01-01

The focus of this paper is a study designed to explore the validity of quantitative approaches of student evaluation in a pre-registration degree programme. As managers of the students' education we were concerned that the quantitative method, which used lecturer criteria, may not fully represent students' views. The approach taken is that of a process-type strategy for curriculum evaluation as described by Parlett and Hamilton (1972). The aim of the study is to produce illuminative data, or students' 'stories' of their educational experiences through use of semi-structured interviews. The results are then compared to the current quantitative measurement tools designed to obtain 'snapshots' of the educational effectiveness of the curriculum. The quantitative measurement tools use Likert scale measurements of teacher-devised criterion statements. The results of the study give a rich source of qualitative data which can be used to inform future curriculum development. However, complete validation of the current quantitative instruments used was not achieved in this study. Student and teacher agendas in respect of important issues pertaining to the course programme were found to differ. Limitations of the study are given. There is discussion of the options open to the management team with regard to future development of curriculum evaluation systems.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two methodologies are statistically compared and evaluated. The comparison between the historic event generated by the model and the observed event will give information on the realism of the model for this event. The comparison between the delta transformation method and the future simulation will provide information on how the dynamics would affect the precipitation field, as compared to the statistical method.

Readiness for living technology: a comparative study of the uptake of robot technology in the Danish health-care sector.

PubMed

Peronard, Jean-Paul

2013-01-01

This article is a comparative analysis between workers in health care with high and low degree of readiness for living technology such as robotics. To explore the differences among workers' readiness, statistical analysis was conducted in a data set obtained from 200 respondents. The results showed important differences between high- and low-readiness types on issues such as staff security, documentation, autonomy, and future challenges.

A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Demirel, Mehmet C.

2017-10-01

The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970-1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010-2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty.

Enhancing future resilience in urban drainage system: Green versus grey infrastructure.

PubMed

Dong, Xin; Guo, Hao; Zeng, Siyu

2017-11-01

In recent years, the concept transition from fail-safe to safe-to-fail makes the application of resilience analysis popular in urban drainage systems (UDSs) with various implications and quantifications. However, most existing definitions of UDSs resilience are confined to the severity of flooding, while uncertainties from climate change and urbanization are not considered. In this research, we take into account the functional variety, topological complexity, and disturbance randomness of UDSs and define a new formula of resilience based on three parts of system severity, i.e. social severity affected by urban flooding, environmental severity caused by sewer overflow, and technological severity considering the safe operation of downstream facilities. A case study in Kunming, China is designed to compare the effect of green and grey infrastructure strategies on the enhancement of system resilience together with their costs. Different system configurations with green roofs, permeable pavement and storage tanks are compared by scenario analysis with full consideration of future uncertainties induced by urbanization and climate change. The research contributes to the development of sustainability assessment of urban drainage system with consideration of the resilience of green and grey infrastructure under future change. Finding the response measures with high adaptation across a variety of future scenarios is crucial to establish sustainable urban drainage system in a long term. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Study of Swept Angle Effects on Grid Fins Aerodynamics Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faza, G. A.; Fadillah, H.; Silitonga, F. Y.; Agoes Moelyadi, Mochamad

2018-04-01

Grid fin is an aerodynamic control surface that usually used on missiles and rockets. In the recent several years many researches have conducted to develop a more efficient grid fins. There are many possibilities of geometric combination could be done to improve aerodynamics characteristic of a grid fin. This paper will only discuss about the aerodynamics characteristics of grid fins compared by another grid fins with different swept angle. The methodology that used to compare the aerodynamics is Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The result of this paper might be used for future studies to answer our former question or as a reference for related studies.

Using genetic algorithms to optimise current and future health planning--the example of ambulance locations.

PubMed

Sasaki, Satoshi; Comber, Alexis J; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Brunsdon, Chris

2010-01-28

Ambulance response time is a crucial factor in patient survival. The number of emergency cases (EMS cases) requiring an ambulance is increasing due to changes in population demographics. This is decreasing ambulance response times to the emergency scene. This paper predicts EMS cases for 5-year intervals from 2020, to 2050 by correlating current EMS cases with demographic factors at the level of the census area and predicted population changes. It then applies a modified grouping genetic algorithm to compare current and future optimal locations and numbers of ambulances. Sets of potential locations were evaluated in terms of the (current and predicted) EMS case distances to those locations. Future EMS demands were predicted to increase by 2030 using the model (R2 = 0.71). The optimal locations of ambulances based on future EMS cases were compared with current locations and with optimal locations modelled on current EMS case data. Optimising the location of ambulance stations locations reduced the average response times by 57 seconds. Current and predicted future EMS demand at modelled locations were calculated and compared. The reallocation of ambulances to optimal locations improved response times and could contribute to higher survival rates from life-threatening medical events. Modelling EMS case 'demand' over census areas allows the data to be correlated to population characteristics and optimal 'supply' locations to be identified. Comparing current and future optimal scenarios allows more nuanced planning decisions to be made. This is a generic methodology that could be used to provide evidence in support of public health planning and decision making.

The association between retinal vascular geometry changes and diabetic retinopathy and their role in prediction of progression – an exploratory study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The study describes the relationship of retinal vascular geometry (RVG) to severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR), and its predictive role for subsequent development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). Methods The research project comprises of two stages. Firstly, a comparative study of diabetic patients with different grades of DR. (No DR: Minimal non-proliferative DR: Severe non-proliferative DR: PDR) (10:10: 12: 19). Analysed RVG features including vascular widths and branching angles were compared between patient cohorts. A preliminary statistical model for determination of the retinopathy grade of patients, using these features, is presented. Secondly, in a longitudinal predictive study, RVG features were analysed for diabetic patients with progressive DR over 7 years. RVG at baseline was examined to determine risk for subsequent PDR development. Results In the comparative study, increased DR severity was associated with gradual vascular dilatation (p = 0.000), and widening of the bifurcating angle (p = 0.000) with increase in smaller-child-vessel branching angle (p = 0.027). Type 2 diabetes and increased diabetes duration were associated with increased vascular width (p = <0.05 In the predictive study, at baseline, reduced small-child vascular width (OR = 0.73 (95% CI 0.58-0.92)), was predictive of future progression to PDR. Conclusions The study findings suggest that RVG alterations can act as novel markers indicative of progression of DR severity and establishment of PDR. RVG may also have a potential predictive role in determining the risk of future retinopathy progression. PMID:25001248

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Reproductive patterns among twins - a Swedish register study of men and women born 1973-1983

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background During the last decades there has been a steady increase of twin births. A combination of improved medical treatment of preterm and small-for-gestational age children has contributed to a higher number of surviving twins. Prematurity is known to affect reproduction in a negative way. Few studies have focused on the potential effect twinning may have on future reproduction. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of being born a twin compared to being born a singleton have on future reproduction. Methods In a national population-based register study, all individuals born between 1973–1983 who were alive and living in Sweden at 13 years of age (n = 1 016 908) constituted the sample. Data on each study subject’s own birth as well as the birth of their first offspring, and parental socio-demographic factors were collected from Swedish population based registers. Hazard ratios and corresponding 95% CI was calculated using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Twins, both men and women, had a reduced likelihood of reproducing compared to singletons (women: HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.86-0.93; men: HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97). This difference in birth rates can only partly be explained by diverging birth characteristics. Amongst men and women born very preterm, twins had an increased likelihood of reproducing compared to singletons (women: HR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.02-1.62; men: HR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.01-1.78). Conclusions Twins have lower reproduction rates compared to singletons, which only to a certain degree can be explained by diverging birth characteristics. PMID:23324566

A systematic review of methodology applied during preclinical anesthetic neurotoxicity studies: important issues and lessons relevant to the design of future clinical research.

PubMed

Disma, Nicola; Mondardini, Maria C; Terrando, Niccolò; Absalom, Anthony R; Bilotta, Federico

2016-01-01

Preclinical evidence suggests that anesthetic agents harm the developing brain thereby causing long-term neurocognitive impairments. It is not clear if these findings apply to humans, and retrospective epidemiological studies thus far have failed to show definitive evidence that anesthetic agents are harmful to the developing human brain. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize the preclinical studies published over the past decade, with a focus on methodological issues, to facilitate the comparison between different preclinical studies and inform better design of future trials. The literature search identified 941 articles related to the topic of neurotoxicity. As the primary aim of this systematic review was to compare methodologies applied in animal studies to inform future trials, we excluded a priori all articles focused on putative mechanism of neurotoxicity and the neuroprotective agents. Forty-seven preclinical studies were finally included in this review. Methods used in these studies were highly heterogeneous-animals were exposed to anesthetic agents at different developmental stages, in various doses and in various combinations with other drugs, and overall showed diverse toxicity profiles. Physiological monitoring and maintenance of physiological homeostasis was variable and the use of cognitive tests was generally limited to assessment of specific brain areas, with restricted translational relevance to humans. Comparison between studies is thus complicated by this heterogeneous methodology and the relevance of the combined body of literature to humans remains uncertain. Future preclinical studies should use better standardized methodologies to facilitate transferability of findings from preclinical into clinical science. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Infectious disease at gluten introduction and risk of childhood diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Welander, Adina; Montgomery, Scott M; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2014-08-01

To investigate the risk of future diabetes mellitus type 1 (T1D) in children who suffered from infection at time of gluten introduction. Population-based prospective study. Parents filled out a diary at home. We hereby obtained data on date of gluten introduction, breastfeeding duration, and infections in 9414 children born in the southeast of Sweden from October 1, 1997, through October 1, 1999 (the All Babies in Southeast Sweden cohort). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the risk of future T1D until February 1, 2012, among children with infection at time of gluten introduction. Forty-six children (0.5%) developed T1D and were compared with 9368 reference children from the general population. Some 10 of 46 children with later T1D had an infection at time of gluten introduction (22%) compared with 2520 reference children (27%, P=.43). Later T1D was not associated with age at end of breastfeeding, age at any infection, or age at gluten introduction. Breastfeeding at time of gluten introduction was not protective against future T1D (hazard ratio 1.2; 95% CI, 0.5-2.7). In our final model, when we adjusted for age at gluten introduction, age at infection, and breastfeeding duration, infection at time of gluten introduction did not influence the risk of future T1D (hazard ratio 0.8; 95% CI, 0.3-1.6). Infection at time of gluten introduction is not a major risk factor for future T1D in nonselected children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

DOE PAGES

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; ...

2016-03-30

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Changes in glaciers in the Swiss Alps and impact on basin hydrology: current state of the art and future research.

PubMed

Pellicciotti, F; Carenzo, M; Bordoy, R; Stoffel, M

2014-09-15

Switzerland is one of the countries with some of the longest and best glaciological data sets. Its glaciers and their changes in response to climate have been extensively investigated, and the number and quality of related studies are notable. However, a comprehensive review of glacier changes and their impact on the hydrology of glacierised catchments for Switzerland is missing and we use the opportunity provided by the EU-FP7 ACQWA project to review the current state of knowledge about past changes and future projections. We examine the type of models that have been applied to infer glacier evolution and identify knowledge gaps that should be addressed in future research in addition to those indicated in previous publications. Common characteristics in long-term series of projected future glacier runoff are an initial peak followed by a decline, associated with shifts in seasonality, earlier melt onset and reduced summer runoff. However, the quantitative predictions are difficult to compare, as studies differ in terms of model structure, calibration strategies, input data, temporal and spatial resolution as well as future scenarios used for impact studies. We identify two sources of uncertainties among those emerging from recent research, and use simulations over four glaciers to: i) quantify the importance of the correct extrapolation of air temperature, and ii) point at the key role played by debris cover in modulating glacier response. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Positive health practices and temporal perspective in low-income adults.

PubMed

Thompson, Cheryl W; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

2008-07-01

The purpose of this study was to describe health-promoting behaviours and temporal perspective in low-income adults. Positive health practices represent a broad range of health-promoting behaviours. The ability to adopt positive health practices may be influenced by many factors, one of which is temporal perspective, the perceived relationship between past, present and future times. This exploratory study was conducted in a south central Pennsylvania community with a convenience sample of individuals who were eligible for a subsidized low-income housing programme. Positive health practices were measured using the Personal Lifestyle Questionnaire. Temporal perspective was measured with the Circles Test. The sample consisted of 75 subjects, 61 women (81%) and 14 men (19%). Positive health practices were relatively high (mean = 70 out of a possible score of 96). Forty three per cent of the subjects expressed future temporal dominance and 80% of the subjects in this study expressed non-continuous temporal relatedness. Health-promoting behaviours in this low-income sample were similar to those reported in other samples in middle-class adult samples. The percentage of subjects who expressed future dominance was similar to findings in other samples. The percentage of subjects who expressed non-continuous temporal relatedness was different from findings reported in other samples, suggesting that perception of the relationship of past, present and future times is different in this low-income sample compared with other samples. The temporal relatedness findings suggest that low-income individuals may not believe that adopting positive health practices will influence future health.

The Future of Comparative and International Education in a Globalised World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, David N.

2003-03-01

This article examines the history and future prospects of comparative and international education with particular reference to the impact of globalisation and Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs). Connections and interactions between comparative educationists and the technologies of printing and electronic communications are examined in a historical context. The global nature of communications in comparative and international education is demonstrated both spatially and historically, using information from all regions of the world. The changing nature of technologies is noted to have broadened the audience for comparative insights. The development of textbooks, journals, conferences, international agencies, the Internet, web-based communications, and professional comparative education societies is related to the themes of communications and globalisation.

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

2017-02-26

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.

Determinants of contraceptive use and future contraceptive intentions of women attending child welfare clinics in urban Ghana.

PubMed

Wuni, Caroline; Turpin, Cornelius A; Dassah, Edward T

2017-08-01

Family planning is an integral component of maternal and child health services in Ghana. Although knowledge on contraception is universal and most women attend maternal and child health services, contraceptive use remains low among women after delivery. This study aimed to determine factors influencing current use and future contraceptive intentions of women who were attending child welfare clinics within 2 years of delivery in Sunyani Municipality, Ghana. We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study among mothers in six selected health care facilities. Data was collected on their socio-demographic characteristics, reproductive and contraceptive experiences and future contraceptive intentions. Categorical variables were compared using the chi-squared (χ 2 ) test. Factors associated with current use and future contraceptive intentions were determined using Poisson regression with a robust error variance to estimate crude and adjusted relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). P < 0.1 was considered statistically significant. A total of 590 women were recruited into the study. Overall, 50.2% of the women were using contraception, 30.7% modern and 19.5% traditional methods. Compared to previous use, more women were using and would prefer the more effective contraceptive methods in future. Significant factors associated with current contraceptive use were, level of education (p = 0.02), discussing family planning during antenatal care (adjusted RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.53), or with one's partner (adjusted RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.47) and previous contraceptive use (adjusted RR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.56-2.33). Family planning discussions during child welfare clinic (adjusted RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.99-1.26) or with one's spouse (adjusted RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08-1.34), desire to space children (adjusted RR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.17-1.55), previous (adjusted RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.27) and current (adjusted RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22) contraceptive use were predictive of clients' intention to adopt family planning in the future. Effective counselling on family planning during antenatal and child welfare clinics, and encouraging spousal communication on contraception are likely to increase contraceptive use after delivery.

Priority Questions and Horizon Scanning for Conservation: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Kark, Salit; Sutherland, William J.; Shanas, Uri; Klass, Keren; Achisar, Hila; Dayan, Tamar; Gavrieli, Yael; Justo-Hanani, Ronit; Mandelik, Yael; Orion, Nir; Pargament, David; Portman, Michelle; Reisman-Berman, Orna; Safriel, Uriel N.; Schaffer, Gad; Steiner, Noa; Tauber, Israel; Levin, Noam

2016-01-01

Several projects aimed at identifying priority issues for conservation with high relevance to policy have recently been completed in several countries. Two major types of projects have been undertaken, aimed at identifying (i) policy-relevant questions most imperative to conservation and (ii) horizon scanning topics, defined as emerging issues that are expected to have substantial implications for biodiversity conservation and policy in the future. Here, we provide the first overview of the outcomes of biodiversity and conservation-oriented projects recently completed around the world using this framework. We also include the results of the first questions and horizon scanning project completed for a Mediterranean country. Overall, the outcomes of the different projects undertaken (at the global scale, in the UK, US, Canada, Switzerland and in Israel) were strongly correlated in terms of the proportion of questions and/or horizon scanning topics selected when comparing different topic areas. However, some major differences were found across regions. There was large variation among regions in the percentage of proactive (i.e. action and response oriented) versus descriptive (non-response oriented) priority questions and in the emphasis given to socio-political issues. Substantial differences were also found when comparing outcomes of priority questions versus horizon scanning projects undertaken for the same region. For example, issues related to climate change, human demography and marine ecosystems received higher priority as horizon scanning topics, while ecosystem services were more emphasized as current priority questions. We suggest that future initiatives aimed at identifying priority conservation questions and horizon scanning topics should allow simultaneous identification of both current and future priority issues, as presented here for the first time. We propose that further emphasis on social-political issues should be explicitly integrated into future related projects. PMID:26815653

Influences of Green Outdoors versus Indoors Environmental Settings on Psychological and Social Outcomes of Controlled Exercise

PubMed Central

Rogerson, Mike; Gladwell, Valerie F.; Gallagher, Daniel J.; Barton, Jo L.

2016-01-01

This study addressed a methodological gap by comparing psychological and social outcomes of exercise in green outdoors versus built indoors settings, whilst rigorously controlling exercise mode and intensity. The hypotheses were that greater improvements or more desirable values for directed attention, mood, perceived exertion, social interaction time, intention for future exercise behaviour and enjoyment would be associated with outdoors compared to indoors exercise. Following a baseline session, paired participants completed two conditions of 15 min of cycling on an ergometer placed outside in a natural environment and inside in a laboratory setting in a randomized, counter-balanced order. At pre- and post-exercise, directed attention was measured with the digit span backwards task, and mood was assessed with the Profile of Mood States. During the exercise session, visual and verbal interactions were recorded by means of experimenter observations. After each exercise session, participants provided self-reports of their enjoyment of the exercise, perceived exertion and intention for future exercise in the same environment. Social interaction time was significantly greater during outdoors exercise versus indoors; on average, participants engaged in three minutes more social interaction during exercise outdoors compared to indoors. Social interaction time significantly predicted intention for future exercise in the outdoors condition, but did not in the indoor condition. There was a significant time by condition interaction for directed attention. Scores worsened in the indoors condition, but improved in the outdoors condition. There was no statistically-significant time by condition interaction for mood and no significant difference between conditions for either perceived exertion or intention. Taken together, these findings show that exercise in a natural environment may promote directed attention and social interactions, which may positively influence future exercise intentions. PMID:27023580

Influences of Green Outdoors versus Indoors Environmental Settings on Psychological and Social Outcomes of Controlled Exercise.

PubMed

Rogerson, Mike; Gladwell, Valerie F; Gallagher, Daniel J; Barton, Jo L

2016-03-25

This study addressed a methodological gap by comparing psychological and social outcomes of exercise in green outdoors versus built indoors settings, whilst rigorously controlling exercise mode and intensity. The hypotheses were that greater improvements or more desirable values for directed attention, mood, perceived exertion, social interaction time, intention for future exercise behaviour and enjoyment would be associated with outdoors compared to indoors exercise. Following a baseline session, paired participants completed two conditions of 15 min of cycling on an ergometer placed outside in a natural environment and inside in a laboratory setting in a randomized, counter-balanced order. At pre- and post-exercise, directed attention was measured with the digit span backwards task, and mood was assessed with the Profile of Mood States. During the exercise session, visual and verbal interactions were recorded by means of experimenter observations. After each exercise session, participants provided self-reports of their enjoyment of the exercise, perceived exertion and intention for future exercise in the same environment. Social interaction time was significantly greater during outdoors exercise versus indoors; on average, participants engaged in three minutes more social interaction during exercise outdoors compared to indoors. Social interaction time significantly predicted intention for future exercise in the outdoors condition, but did not in the indoor condition. There was a significant time by condition interaction for directed attention. Scores worsened in the indoors condition, but improved in the outdoors condition. There was no statistically-significant time by condition interaction for mood and no significant difference between conditions for either perceived exertion or intention. Taken together, these findings show that exercise in a natural environment may promote directed attention and social interactions, which may positively influence future exercise intentions.

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfister, G. G.; Walters, Stacy; Lamarque, J. F.

This study uses a regional fully coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution (12 km grid spacing) under the SRES A2 climate and RCP8.5 anthropogenic pre-cursor emission scenario. The impact of predicted changes in climate and global background ozone is estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S; the 5th - 95th percentile range for daily 8-hour maximum surface ozone increases from 31-79 ppbV to 30-87 ppbV between the present and future time periods. The analysis of a set ofmore » meteorological drivers suggests that these mostly will add to increasing ozone, but the set of simulations conducted does not allow to separate this effect from that through enhanced global background ozone. Statistically the most robust positive feedbacks are through increased temperature, biogenic emissions and solar radiation. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks and if considered, we estimate large reductions in surface ozone with the 5th-95th percentile reduced to 27-55 ppbV. A comparison of the high-resolution projections to global model projections shows that even though the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations, both the global and the regional model predict similar changes in ozone between the present and future time periods. However, on smaller spatial scales, the regional predictions show more pronounced changes between urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of global model. In addition, the sign of the changes in overall ozone mixing ratios can be different between the global and the regional predictions in certain regions, such as the Western U.S. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality predictions and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in emission policy making. It also illustrates the need for high resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society.« less

Anticipated debt and financial stress in medical students.

PubMed

Morra, Dante J; Regehr, Glenn; Ginsburg, Shiphra

2008-01-01

While medical student debt is increasing, the effect of debt on student well-being and performance remains unclear. As a part of a larger study examining medical student views of their future profession, data were collected to examine the role that current and anticipated debt has in predicting stress among medical students. A survey was administered to medical students in all four years at the University of Toronto. Of the 804 potential respondents across the four years of training, 549 surveys had sufficient data for inclusion in this analysis, for a response rate of 68%. Through multiple regression analysis, we evaluated the correlation between current and anticipated debt and financial stress. Although perceived financial stress correlates with both current and anticipated debt levels, anticipated debt was able to account for an additional 11.5% of variance in reported stress when compared to current debt levels alone. This study demonstrates a relationship between perceived financial stress and debt levels, and suggests that anticipated debt levels might be a more robust metric to capture financial burden, as it standardizes for year of training and captures future financial liabilities (future tuition and other future expenses).

Structuring the Future: Anticipated Life Events, Peer Networks, and Adolescent Sexual Behavior

PubMed Central

Soller, Brian; Haynie, Dana L.

2013-01-01

While prior research has established associations between individual expectations of future events and risk behavior among adolescents, the potential effects of peers’ future perceptions on risk-taking have been overlooked. We extend prior research by testing whether peers’ anticipation of college completion is associated with adolescent sexual risk-taking. We also examine whether adolescents’ perceptions of the negative consequences of pregnancy and idealized romantic relationship scripts mediate the association between peers’ anticipation of college completion and sexual risk-taking. Results from multivariate regression models with data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) indicate peers’ anticipation of college completion is negatively associated with a composite measure of sexual risk-taking and positively associated with the odds of abstaining from sexual intercourse and only engaging in intercourse with a romantic partner (compared to having intercourse with a non-romantic partner). In addition, perceptions of the negative consequences of pregnancy and sexualized relationship scripts appear to mediate a large portion of the association between peers’ anticipation of future success and sexual risk-taking and the likelihood of abstaining (but not engaging in romantic-only intercourse). Results from our study underscore the importance of peers in shaping adolescent sexual behavior. PMID:24223438

Preliminary Computational Study for Future Tests in the NASA Ames 9 foot' x 7 foot Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pearl, Jason M.; Carter, Melissa B.; Elmiligui, Alaa A.; WInski, Courtney S.; Nayani, Sudheer N.

2016-01-01

The NASA Advanced Air Vehicles Program, Commercial Supersonics Technology Project seeks to advance tools and techniques to make over-land supersonic flight feasible. In this study, preliminary computational results are presented for future tests in the NASA Ames 9 foot x 7 foot supersonic wind tunnel to be conducted in early 2016. Shock-plume interactions and their effect on pressure signature are examined for six model geometries. Near- field pressure signatures are assessed using the CFD code USM3D to model the proposed test geometries in free-air. Additionally, results obtained using the commercial grid generation software Pointwise Reigistered Trademark are compared to results using VGRID, the NASA Langley Research Center in-house mesh generation program.

When the future becomes the past: Differences in brain activation patterns for episodic memory and episodic future thinking.

PubMed

Weiler, Julia A; Suchan, Boris; Daum, Irene

2010-10-15

Episodic memory and episodic future thinking activate a network of overlapping brain regions, but little is known about the mechanism with which the brain separates the two processes. It was recently suggested that differential activity for memory and future thinking may be linked to differences in the phenomenal properties (e.g., richness of detail). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging in healthy subjects and a novel experimental design, we investigated the networks involved in the imagery of future and the recall of past events for the same target occasion, i.e. the Christmas and New Year's holidays, thereby keeping temporal distance and content similar across conditions. Although ratings of phenomenal characteristics were comparable for future thoughts and memories, differential activation patterns emerged. The right posterior hippocampus exhibited stronger memory-related activity during early event recall, and stronger future thought-related activity during late event imagination. Other regions, e.g., the precuneus and lateral prefrontal cortex, showed the reverse activation pattern with early future-associated and late past-associated activation. Memories compared to future thoughts were further related to stronger activation in several visual processing regions, which accords with a reactivation of the original perceptual experience. In conclusion, the results showed for the first time unique neural signatures for both memory and future thinking even in the absence of differences in phenomenal properties and suggested different time courses of brain activation for episodic memory and future thinking. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Topical Review: Integrating Findings on Direct Observation of Family Communication in Studies Comparing Pediatric Chronic Illness and Typically Developing Samples.

PubMed

Murphy, Lexa K; Murray, Caitlin B; Compas, Bruce E

2017-01-01

To review research on observed family communication in families with children with chronic illnesses compared with families with healthy, typically developing children, and to integrate findings utilizing a unifying family communication framework. Topical review of studies that have directly observed family communication in pediatric populations and included a typically developing comparison group. Initial findings from 14 studies with diverse approaches to quantifying observed family communication suggest that families with children with chronic illnesses may demonstrate lower levels of warm and structured communication and higher levels of hostile/intrusive and withdrawn communication compared with families with healthy, typically developing children. An integrative framework of family communication may be used in future studies that examine the occurrence, correlates, and mechanisms of family communication in pediatric populations.

Past-focused temporal communication overcomes conservatives' resistance to liberal political ideas.

PubMed

Lammers, Joris; Baldwin, Matt

2018-04-01

Nine studies and a meta-analysis test the role of past-focused temporal communication in reducing conservatives' disagreement with liberal political ideas. We propose that conservatives are more prone to warm, affectionate, and nostalgic feelings for past society. Therefore, they are more likely to support political ideas-including those expressing liberal values-that can be linked to a desirable past state (past focus), rather than a desirable future state (future focus) of society. Study 1 supports our prediction that political conservatives are more nostalgic for the past than liberals. Building on this association, we demonstrate that communicating liberal ideas with a past focus increases conservatives' support for leniency in criminal justice (Studies 2a and 2b), gun control (Study 3), immigration (Study 4), social diversity (Study 5), and social justice (Study 6). Communicating messages with a past focus reduced political disagreement (compared with a future focus) between liberals and conservatives by between 30 and 100% across studies. Studies 5 and 6 identify the mediating role of state and trait nostalgia, respectively. Study 7 shows that the temporal communication effect only occurs under peripheral (and not central) information processing. Study 8 shows that the effect is asymmetric; a future focus did not increase liberals' support for conservative ideas. A mixed-effects meta-analysis across all studies confirms that appealing to conservatives' nostalgia with a past-focused temporal focus increases support for liberal political messages (Study 9). A large portion of the political disagreement between conservatives and liberals appears to be disagreement over style, and not content of political issues. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter

2009-01-01

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

Influence of stimulants on electrodermal studies in Fragile X syndrome.

PubMed

Hagerman, Randi J; Miller, Lucy J; McGrath-Clarke, Jude; Riley, Karen; Goldson, Edward; Harris, Susan W; Simon, Jody; Church, Kelly; Bonnell, Julie; Ognibene, Todd C; McIntosh, Daniel N

2002-05-01

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is seen in the majority of children with Fragile X Syndrome (FraX). Previous work has documented an enhanced sweat response to stimuli in children with FraX compared to controls utilizing electrodermal response (EDR) measures. The present study assesses the EDRs both on and off stimulants in 19 children with ADHD and FraX compared to 17 age- and IQ-matched control patients with ADHD and developmental delays. Although the baseline EDRs were comparable between FraX patients and controls, the patients with FraX had a significant decrease in EDR amplitude and number of peaks when treated with stimulants compared to controls. This suggests that patients with FraX are more responsive to the enhancement of inhibitory systems that occur with stimulant use for ADHD. The use of a quantifiable measure, such as EDR, is recommended in future studies of treatment efficacy. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Are Common Skin Diseases among Norwegian Dermatological Outpatients Associated with Psychological Problems Compared with Controls? An Observational Study.

PubMed

Balieva, Flora; Lien, Lars; Kupfer, Jörg; Halvorsen, Jon Anders; Dalgard, Florence

2016-02-01

Dermatological disease has been shown to be associated with psychological comorbidity. The aim of this observational study is to describe the distribution of skin disease and the prevalence of depression, anxiety and stress among Norwegian dermatological outpatients. Thirteen percent of outpatients had clinical anxiety compared with 3.7% of healthy controls, and 5.8% had clinical depression compared with 0.9% of controls. Adjusted odds ratio for clinical anxiety was 4.53 in patients compared with controls, and for clinical depression 6.25, which is much higher than previously described in a larger European study. Patients with tumours had less depression. Chronic inflammatory skin conditions had an especially high impact on patient's psychological wellbeing and should not be undervalued relative to, for instance, skin cancer in health strategies. These results argue strongly for including skin disease prevention and treatment in future health strategies.

Evaluation of Human vs. Teleoperated Robotic Performance in Field Geology Tasks at a Mars Analog Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B.; Briggs, G.

2003-01-01

Exploration mission designers and planners have costing models used to assess the affordability of given missions - but very little data exists on the relative science return produced by different ways of exploring a given region. Doing cost-benefit analyses for future missions requires a way to compare the relative field science productivity of spacesuited humans vs. virtual presence/teleoperation from a nearby habitat or orbital station, vs. traditional terrestrial-controlled rover operations. The goal of this study was to define science-return metrics for comparing human and robotic fieldwork, and then obtain quantifiable science-return performance comparisons between teleoperated rovers and spacesuited humans. Test runs with a simulated 2015-class rover and with spacesuited geologists were conducted at Haughton Crater in the Canadian Arctic in July 2002. Early results imply that humans will be 1-2 orders of magnitude more productive per unit time in exploration than future terrestrially-controlled robots.

Future Heat Waves In Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

Depressive self-presentation: beyond self-handicapping.

PubMed

Weary, G; Williams, J P

1990-05-01

An experiment was conducted to examine the notion that depressives' responses would reflect a protective self-presentation style (Hill, Weary, & Williams, 1986), the underlying goal of which would be the avoidance of future performance demands and potential losses in self-esteem. In this study, depressed and nondepressed Ss were asked to perform a relatively simple visual-motor task. Half of the depressed and half of the nondepressed Ss were told that if they were successful at the task, they would be asked to perform a 2nd, similar task. The remaining Ss were given no such expectation of future performance. We predicted and found that depressed compared with nondepressed Ss strategically failed at the task when presented with the possibility of future performance and further losses in esteem. Moreover, this strategic failure was associated with some costs; depressed-future performance expectancy Ss experienced more discomfort or negative affect as a result of their performance. The relationship between this depressive self-presentation and self-handicapping strategies is discussed.

Automatic optimism: the affective basis of judgments about the likelihood of future events.

PubMed

Lench, Heather C

2009-05-01

People generally judge that the future will be consistent with their desires, but the reason for this desirability bias is unclear. This investigation examined whether affective reactions associated with future events are the mechanism through which desires influence likelihood judgments. In 4 studies, affective reactions were manipulated for initially neutral events. Compared with a neutral condition, events associated with positive reactions were judged as likely to occur, and events associated with negative reactions were judged as unlikely to occur. Desirability biases were reduced when participants could misattribute affective reactions to a source other than future events, and the relationship between affective reactions and judgments was influenced when approach and avoidance motivations were independently manipulated. Together, these findings demonstrate that positive and negative affective reactions to potential events cause the desirability bias in likelihood judgments and suggest that this effect occurs because of a tendency to approach positive possibilities and avoid negative possibilities. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Evolution Theory Teaching and Learning: What Conclusions Can We Get from Comparisons of Teachers' and Students' Conceptual Ecologies in Greece and Turkey?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Athanasiou, Kyriacos; Papadopoulou, Penelope

2015-01-01

In this study, we make an effort to compare studies that explore the factors related to acceptance of evolutionary theory among Greek and Turkish students-future teachers, using conceptual ecology for biological evolution as the theoretical framework. We aimed to look into the acceptance and the understanding of evolutionary theory and also to…

Preparation For Medical School via an Intensive Summer Program for Future Doctors: A Pilot Study of Student Confidence and Reasoning Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Musick, David W.; Ray, Richard H.

2016-01-01

A medical school conducted a summer pre-matriculation program. The program provided basic sciences content comparable to first year medical student instruction along with clinical and other learning experiences. The study purpose was to examine self-confidence levels and reasoning skills of a single cohort of students. We examined the association…

A Closer Look at the Output Hypothesis: The Effect of Pushed Output on Noticing and Inductive Learning of the Spanish Future Tense

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Victoria

2014-01-01

This study empirically tested the noticing function of the output hypothesis (Swain, 1993, 1995, 1998) and explored the relationship between noticing and learning by comparing the effects of the production of output to exposure to textually enhanced input. The present study is a conceptual replication of Izumi (2002); however, Izumi examined a…

Fifteen years of quantitative trait loci studies in fish: challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Ashton, David T; Ritchie, Peter A; Wellenreuther, Maren

2017-03-01

Understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic variation is a major challenge in biology. Here, we systematically evaluate 146 quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies on teleost fish over the last 15 years to investigate (i) temporal trends and (ii) factors affecting QTL detection and fine-mapping. The number of fish QTL studies per year increased over the review period and identified a cumulative number of 3632 putative QTLs. Most studies used linkage-based mapping approaches and were conducted on nonmodel species with limited genomic resources. A gradual and moderate increase in the size of the mapping population and a sharp increase in marker density from 2011 onwards were observed; however, the number of QTLs and variance explained by QTLs changed only minimally over the review period. Based on these findings, we discuss the causative factors and outline how larger sample sizes, phenomics, comparative genomics, epigenetics and software development could improve both the quantity and quality of QTLs in future genotype-phenotype studies. Given that the technical limitations on DNA sequencing have mostly been overcome in recent years, a renewed focus on these and other study design factors will likely lead to significant improvements in QTL studies in the future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A pilot comparative study of topical latanoprost and tacrolimus in combination with narrow-band ultraviolet B phototherapy and microneedling for the treatment of nonsegmental vitiligo.

PubMed

Korobko, Igor V; Lomonosov, Konstantin M

2016-11-01

Prostaglandins and their analogues are beneficial as topical agents in vitiligo treatment, yet neither of the previous study addressed their comparative efficiency with conventional topical agents used in vitiligo treatment. In this pilot (24 patients) left-right comparative study we addressed efficiency of prostaglandin F2α analogue latanoprost versus tacrolimus when combined with narrow-band ultraviolet B and microneedling in repigmentation of nonsegmental vitiligo lesions. Our results confirm potency of prostaglandins, in particular, that of latanoprost, in inducing repigmentation, with the efficiency being at least comparable to that of tacrolimus, while contribution of microneedling remains unclear. In summary, results of our study provide further evidences for justified use of prostaglandins, in particular, latanoprost, in vitiligo treatment. In turn, this warrants future studies on the topic aiming to conclusively introduce prostaglandin-based formulations as conventional agents for vitiligo management. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3.

PubMed

Jin, Fengjun; Kitoh, Akio; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-11-28

Water cycle components over the Mediterranean for both a current run (1979-2007) and a future run (2075-2099) are studied with the Japan Meteorological Agency's 20 km grid global climate model. Results are compared with another study using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble model (hereafter, the Mariotti model). Our results are surprisingly close to Mariotti's. The projected mean annual change rates of precipitation (P) between the future and the current run for sea and land are -11 per cent and -10 per cent, respectively, which are not as high as Mariotti's. Projected changes for evaporation (E) are +9.3 per cent and -3.6 per cent, compared with +7.2 per cent and -8.1 per cent in Mariotti's study, respectively. However, no significant difference in the change in P-E over the sea body was found between these two studies. The increased E over the eastern Mediterranean was found to be higher than that in the western Mediterranean, but the P decrease was lower. The net moisture budget, P-E, shows that the eastern Mediterranean will become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model suggests decreasing water inflow to the Mediterranean of approximately 36 per cent (excluding the Nile).

Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

PubMed

Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-12-16

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

PubMed

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

Ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin levels and concurrent and future weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Soni, Amy C; Conroy, Molly B; Mackey, Rachel H; Kuller, Lewis H

2011-03-01

Weight loss and maintenance can be particularly challenging for postmenopausal women given the changes in body composition, metabolism, and lifestyle that can accompany the menopausal transition. Peptides mediating energy homeostasis (ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin) may play an important role in the weight and body composition changes of postmenopausal women and may in turn be affected by hormone therapy (HT) use. This study examines how success with weight loss may be related to peptides mediating energy homeostasis and HT use. The present analysis involves 200 women from a lifestyle intervention trial in overweight, postmenopausal women for whom data on the peptides ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin were collected at 0 and 18 months. Peptide levels were compared with changes in weight from 0 to 18 and from 18 to 30 months. Baseline peptide levels were not significantly related to future weight change. From 0 to 18 months, ghrelin (P = 0.0005) and adiponectin (P ≤ 0.0001) levels increased, whereas leptin (P ≤ 0.0001) and insulin (P = 0.0003) levels decreased with increasing amount of weight loss. However, only leptin change was related to 18-30-month weight change. Women who were on HT at 0 months but discontinued by 18 months had a greater increase in ghrelin level from 0 to 18 months compared with women with continuous HT use or nonuse. In overweight, postmenopausal women, changes in energy homeostasis peptides relate to both concurrent and future weight change. Future studies should continue to address how ghrelin, leptin, insulin, and adiponectin contribute to body composition changes and weight loss maintenance after menopause.

Ghrelin, Leptin, Adiponectin, and Insulin Levels and Concurrent and Future Weight Change in Overweight Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Soni, Amy C.; Conroy, Molly B.; Mackey, Rachel H.; Kuller, Lewis H.

2010-01-01

Objective Weight loss and maintenance can be particularly challenging for postmenopausal women given the changes in body composition, metabolism, and lifestyle that can accompany the menopausal transition. Peptides mediating energy homeostasis (i.e., ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin) may play an important role in the weight and body composition changes of postmenopausal women, and may in turn be affected by hormone therapy (HT) use. This study examines how success with weight loss may be related to peptides mediating energy homeostasis and HT use. Methods The present analysis involves 200 women from a lifestyle intervention trial in overweight, postmenopausal women for whom data on the peptides ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin were collected at 0 and 18 months. Peptide levels were compared to changes in weight from 0-18 and18-30 months. Results Baseline peptide levels were not significantly related to future weight change. From 0-18 months, ghrelin (p=0.0005) and adiponectin (p=<0.0001) levels increased, while leptin (p=<0.0001), and insulin (p=0.0003) decreased with increasing amount of weight loss. However, only leptin change was related to 18-30 month weight change. Women who were on HT at 0 months but discontinued by 18 months had a greater increase in ghrelin from 0-18 months compared to women with continuous HT use or non-use. Conclusions In overweight, postmenopausal women, changes in energy homeostasis peptides relate to both concurrent and future weight change. Future studies should continue to address the how ghrelin, leptin, insulin, and adiponectin contribute to body composition changes and weight loss maintenance after menopause. PMID:21449093

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John; Beville, Shelly; Britsch, Del; Hartley, Stephen; Hawes, Suzanne; Johnston, James; Kemp, Paul; Kinler, Quin; Martucci, Antonio; Porthouse, Jon; Reed, Denise; Roy, Kevin; Sapkota, Sijan; Suhayda, Joseph

2003-01-01

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Predictive Factors for Visual Field Conversion: Comparison of Scanning Laser Polarimetry and Optical Coherence Tomography.

PubMed

Diekmann, Theresa; Schrems-Hoesl, Laura M; Mardin, Christian Y; Laemmer, Robert; Horn, Folkert K; Kruse, Friedrich E; Schrems, Wolfgang A

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the ability of scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) to predict future visual field conversion of subjects with ocular hypertension and early glaucoma. All patients were recruited from the Erlangen glaucoma registry and examined using standard automated perimetry, 24-hour intraocular pressure profile, and optic disc photography. Peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFL) measurements were obtained by SLP (GDx-VCC) and SD-OCT (Spectralis OCT). Positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for morphologic parameters of SLP and SD-OCT. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and log-rank tests were performed to compare the survival distributions. Contingency tables and Venn-diagrams were calculated to compare the predictive ability. The study included 207 patients-75 with ocular hypertension, 85 with early glaucoma, and 47 controls. Median follow-up was 4.5 years. A total of 29 patients (14.0%) developed visual field conversion during follow-up. SLP temporal-inferior RNFL [0.667; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.281-0.935] and SD-OCT temporal-inferior RNFL (0.571; 95% CI, 0.317-0.802) achieved the highest PPV; nerve fiber indicator (0.923; 95% CI, 0.876-0.957) and SD-OCT mean (0.898; 95% CI, 0.847-0.937) achieved the highest NPV of all investigated parameters. The Kaplan-Meier curves confirmed significantly higher survival for subjects within normal limits of measurements of both devices (P<0.001). Venn diagrams tested with McNemar test statistics showed no significant difference for PPV (P=0.219) or NPV (P=0.678). Both GDx-VCC and SD-OCT demonstrate comparable results in predicting future visual field conversion if taking typical scans for GDx-VCC. In addition, the likelihood ratios suggest that GDx-VCC's nerve fiber indicator<30 may be the most useful parameter to confirm future nonconversion. (http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov number, NTC00494923; Erlangen Glaucoma Registry).

Differences in baseline factors and survival between normocapnia, compensated respiratory acidosis and decompensated respiratory acidosis in COPD exacerbation: A pilot study.

PubMed

Lun, Chung-Tat; Tsui, Miranda S N; Cheng, Suet-Lai; Chan, Veronica L; Leung, Wah-Shing; Cheung, Alice P S; Chu, Chung-Ming

2016-01-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experiencing acute exacerbation (AE-COPD) with decompensated respiratory acidosis are known to have poor outcomes in terms of recurrent respiratory failure and death. However, the outcomes of AE-COPD patients with compensated respiratory acidosis are not known. We performed a 1-year prospective, single-centre, cohort study in patients surviving the index admission for AE-COPD to compare baseline factors between groups with normocapnia, compensated respiratory acidosis and decompensated respiratory acidosis. Survival analysis was done to examine time to readmissions, life-threatening events and death. A total of 250 patients fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria were recruited and 245 patients were analysed. Compared with normocapnia, both compensated and decompensated respiratory acidosis are associated with lower FEV1 % (P < 0.001), higher GOLD stage (P = 0.003, <0.001) and higher BODE index (P = 0.038, 0.001) and a shorter time to life-threatening events (P < 0.001). Comparing compensated and decompensated respiratory acidosis, there was no difference in FEV1 (% predicted) (P = 0.15), GOLD stage (P = 0.091), BODE index (P = 0.158) or time to life-threatening events (P = 0.301). High PaCO2 level (P = 0.002) and previous use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in acute setting (P < 0.001) are predictive factors of future life-threatening events by multivariate analysis. Compared with normocapnia, both compensated and decompensated respiratory acidosis are associated with poorer lung function and higher risk of future life-threatening events. High PaCO2 level and past history of NIV use in acute settings were predictive factors for future life-threatening events. Compensated respiratory acidosis warrants special attention and optimization of medical therapy as it poses risk of life-threatening events. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

A Reduction in Delay Discounting by Using Episodic Future Imagination and the Association with Episodic Memory Capacity

PubMed Central

Hu, Xiaochen; Kleinschmidt, Helena; Martin, Jason A.; Han, Ying; Thelen, Manuela; Meiberth, Dix; Jessen, Frank; Weber, Bernd

2017-01-01

Delay discounting (DD) refers to the phenomenon that individuals discount future consequences. Previous studies showed that future imagination reduces DD, which was mediated by functional connectivity between medial prefrontal valuation areas and a key region for episodic memory (hippocampus). Future imagination involves an initial period of construction and a later period of elaboration, with the more elaborative latter period recruiting more cortical regions. This study examined whether elaborative future imagination modulated DD, and if so, what are the underlying neural substrates. It was assumed that cortical areas contribute to the modulation effect during the later period of imagination. Since future imagination is supported by episodic memory capacity, we additionally hypothesize that the neural network underlying the modulation effect is related to individual episodic memory capacity. Twenty-two subjects received an extensive interview on personal future events, followed by an fMRI DD experiment with and without the need to perform elaborative future imagination simultaneously. Subjects' episodic memory capacity was also assessed. Behavioral results replicate previous findings of a reduced discount rate in the DD plus imagination condition compared to the DD only condition. The behavioral effect positively correlated with: (i) subjective value signal changes in midline brain structures during the initial imagination period; and (ii) signal changes in left prefrontoparietal areas during the later imagination period. Generalized psychophysiological interaction (gPPI) analyses reveal positive correlations between the behavioral effect and functional connectivity among the following areas: right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and left hippocampus; left inferior parietal cortex (IPC) and left hippocampus; and left IPC and bilateral occipital cortices. These changes in functional connectivity are also associated with episodic memory capacity. A hierarchical multiple regression indicates that the model with both the valuation related signal changes in the right ACC and the imagination related signal changes in the left IPC best predicts the reduction in DD. This study illustrates interactions between the left hippocampus and multiple cortical regions underlying the modulation effect of elaborative episodic future imagination, demonstrating, for the first time, empirical support for a relation to individual episodic memory capacity. PMID:28105009

A Reduction in Delay Discounting by Using Episodic Future Imagination and the Association with Episodic Memory Capacity.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaochen; Kleinschmidt, Helena; Martin, Jason A; Han, Ying; Thelen, Manuela; Meiberth, Dix; Jessen, Frank; Weber, Bernd

2016-01-01

Delay discounting (DD) refers to the phenomenon that individuals discount future consequences. Previous studies showed that future imagination reduces DD, which was mediated by functional connectivity between medial prefrontal valuation areas and a key region for episodic memory (hippocampus). Future imagination involves an initial period of construction and a later period of elaboration, with the more elaborative latter period recruiting more cortical regions. This study examined whether elaborative future imagination modulated DD, and if so, what are the underlying neural substrates. It was assumed that cortical areas contribute to the modulation effect during the later period of imagination. Since future imagination is supported by episodic memory capacity, we additionally hypothesize that the neural network underlying the modulation effect is related to individual episodic memory capacity. Twenty-two subjects received an extensive interview on personal future events, followed by an fMRI DD experiment with and without the need to perform elaborative future imagination simultaneously. Subjects' episodic memory capacity was also assessed. Behavioral results replicate previous findings of a reduced discount rate in the DD plus imagination condition compared to the DD only condition. The behavioral effect positively correlated with: (i) subjective value signal changes in midline brain structures during the initial imagination period; and (ii) signal changes in left prefrontoparietal areas during the later imagination period. Generalized psychophysiological interaction (gPPI) analyses reveal positive correlations between the behavioral effect and functional connectivity among the following areas: right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and left hippocampus; left inferior parietal cortex (IPC) and left hippocampus; and left IPC and bilateral occipital cortices. These changes in functional connectivity are also associated with episodic memory capacity. A hierarchical multiple regression indicates that the model with both the valuation related signal changes in the right ACC and the imagination related signal changes in the left IPC best predicts the reduction in DD. This study illustrates interactions between the left hippocampus and multiple cortical regions underlying the modulation effect of elaborative episodic future imagination, demonstrating, for the first time, empirical support for a relation to individual episodic memory capacity.

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

Decomposing dendrophilia. Comment on “Toward a computational framework for cognitive biology: Unifying approaches from cognitive neuroscience and comparative cognition” by W. Tecumseh Fitch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honing, Henkjan; Zuidema, Willem

2014-09-01

The future of cognitive science will be about bridging neuroscience and behavioral studies, with essential roles played by comparative biology, formal modeling, and the theory of computation. Nowhere will this integration be more strongly needed than in understanding the biological basis of language and music. We thus strongly sympathize with the general framework that Fitch [1] proposes, and welcome the remarkably broad and readable review he presents to support it.

EHR standards--A comparative study.

PubMed

Blobel, Bernd; Pharow, Peter

2006-01-01

For ensuring quality and efficiency of patient's care, the care paradigm moves from organization-centered over process-controlled towards personal care. Such health system paradigm change leads to new paradigms for analyzing, designing, implementing and deploying supporting health information systems including EHR systems as core application in a distributed eHealth environment. The paper defines the architectural paradigm for future-proof EHR systems. It compares advanced EHR architectures referencing them at the Generic Component Model. The paper introduces the evolving paradigm of autonomous computing for self-organizing health information systems.

Patterns of emotional responses to pregnancy, experience of pregnancy and attitudes to parenthood among IVF couples: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hjelmstedt, A; Widström, A; Wramsby, H M; Collins, A

2003-09-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to compare couples who had conceived by in-vitro fertilization (IVF) with couples who had conceived naturally, regarding patterns of emotional response to different stages of pregnancy and to compare their expectations of and attitudes to pregnancy, parenthood and children. Fifty-seven IVF women and 55 of their male partners, and a control group of 43 pregnant women and 39 of their male partners participated. They completed scales measuring emotional responses to pregnancy, attitudes to pregnancy, parenthood and children. The IVF couples were interviewed about their experience of pregnancy. The overall anxiety about losing the pregnancy was higher among the IVF couples from early to late pregnancy. The IVF women experienced the pregnancy in a more positive way and they were less concerned about the child's gender and loss of freedom in their future lives as parents compared to controls. The IVF men were more anxious about the baby being injured during birth. The interviews with the IVF couples confirmed the self-ratings. In conclusion, the results suggest that it is important for healthcare providers to pay attention to an elevated anxiety among IVF couples and to give them extra time to discuss emotions during pregnancy and their future life as parents.

Comparing schizophrenia symptoms in the Iban of Sarawak with other populations to elucidate clinical heterogeneity.

PubMed

McLean, Duncan; Barrett, Robert; Loa, Peter; Thara, Rangaswamy; John, Sujit; McGrath, John; Gratten, Jake; Mowry, Bryan

2015-03-01

The symptom profile of schizophrenia can vary between ethnic groups. We explored selected symptom variables previously reported to be characteristic of schizophrenia in the Iban of Sarawak in transethnic populations from Australia, India, and Sarawak, Malaysia. We tested site differences to confirm previous research, and to explore implications of differences across populations for future investigations. We recruited schizophrenia samples in Australia (n = 609), India (n = 310) and Sarawak (n = 205) primarily for the purposes of genetic studies. We analyzed seven identified variables and their relationship to site using logistic regression, including: global delusions, bizarre delusions, thought broadcast/insertion/withdrawal delusions, global hallucinations, auditory hallucinations, disorganized behavior, and prodromal duration. We identified a distinct symptom profile in our Sarawak sample. Specifically, the Iban exhibit: low frequency of thought broadcast/insertion/withdrawal delusions, high frequency of auditory hallucinations and disorganized behavior, with a comparatively short prodrome when compared with Australian and Indian populations. Understanding between-site variation in symptom profile may complement future transethnic genetic studies, and provide important clues as to the nature of differing schizophrenia expression across ethnically distinct groups. A comprehensive approach to subtyping schizophrenia is warranted, utilizing comprehensively ascertained transethnic samples to inform both schizophrenia genetics and nosology. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Perceptions of Why Women Stay in Physically Abusive Relationships: A Comparative Study of Chinese and U.S. College Students.

PubMed

Pugh, Brandie; Li, Luye; Sun, Ivan Y

2018-05-01

In both China and the United States, public attitudes toward intimate partner violence (IPV) have shifted from viewing IPV as a tolerable, private matter to viewing it as a matter of public concern that should be dealt with as a crime. Empirical and comparative examinations of the perceptions of why women stay in physically abusive relationships are lacking. Answering this question calls for comprehensive, methodologically rigorous research. Using survey data collected from approximately 1,000 college students from two Chinese and two U.S. universities, this study empirically compared and contrasted factors that impact U.S. and Chinese students' perceptions as to why women remain in physically abusive relationships. Utilizing a theoretical framework of social constructionism, two common reasons were assessed: Women stay in physically abusive relationships because of learned helplessness and positive beliefs in the relationship/hope for the future. The results show that viewing IPV as a crime, gender, and beliefs of the causes of IPV were robust predictors of college students' perceptions toward why women stay in physically abusive relationships. U.S. college students were more likely to express sympathy and understanding toward why women remain in abusive relationships than Chinese students. Directions for future research and policy implications were discussed.

The impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.

2017-09-01

The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.

[Peloid therapy. An overview of the empirical status and evidence of mud therapy].

PubMed

Beer, A-M; Fetaj, S; Lange, U

2013-08-01

Numerous peloids for balneotherapy are currently available but in terms of effects and efficacy therapeutic peat has been studied best. Recent studies revealed that both thermal and physical effects of therapeutic peat are comparable and synergistic. The thermal effects of all types of peat used are approximately the same but chemical effects differ. These results have to been taken into account in future peloid analyses and indications and contraindications of mud therapy have to be reviewed in this respect. Some hypothetical aspects of these chemical effects have to be investigated in future clinical studies but clinical experience with mud therapy allows preliminary conclusions to be drawn. This statement is especially supported by recent molecular investigations. Knowledge about the chemical effects is also necessary for planning, defining and designing clinical studies and patients groups. Exemplarily, the therapeutic use of peat in rheumatic diseases and for fertility treatment will be demonstrated.

Married Women, Employment Status, and Stress: A Critical Review and Agenda for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Barbara Ann Deborah Conway

Research has compared employed and non-employed women in the areas of depression, reported psychological problems, alienation, role conflict, marital problems, life satisfaction, job satisfaction, and anxiety. A review of this research generally revealed no differences between employed and non-employed women. Those studies which reported…

Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of a Nano-Enhanced Field Emission Display Using Life Cycle Assessment: A Screening-Level Study

EPA Science Inventory

Carbon nanotube (CNT) field emission displays (FEDs) are currently in the product development stage and are expected to be commercialized in the near future because they offer image quality and viewing angles comparable to a cathode ray tube (CRT) while using a thinner structure,...

Career Satisfaction of Postdoctoral Researchers in Relation to Their Expectations for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Weijden, Inge; Teelken, Christine; de Boer, Moniek; Drost, Mariske

2016-01-01

While postdoctoral researchers (postdocs) are an increasingly important and productive group of employees in academia, they lack further career prospects and embeddedness within their organizations. This paper provides a rare glimpse into this relatively unexplored but important group. A comparative study of two Dutch universities included a…

Temporal and spatial variability in North Carolina piedmont stream temperature

Treesearch

J.L. Boggs; G. Sun; S.G. McNulty; W. Swartley; Treasure E.; W. Summer

2009-01-01

Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of in-stream temperature can provide useful information to managing future impacts of climate change on these systems. This study will compare temporal patterns and spatial variability of headwater in-stream temperature in six catchments in the piedmont of North Carolina in two different geological regions, Carolina slate...

Student Employment among Descendants of Turkish Migrants in Amsterdam and Strasbourg

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keskiner, Elif

2017-01-01

This article compares and contrasts the nature of student employment experience in Amsterdam and Strasbourg among descendants of Turkish migrants. The analysis relies on in-depth qualitative interviews revealing the experience of student employment and the impact of working while studying on the educational careers and future labour market…

Assessing the Therapeutic Environment in Hybrid Models of Treatment: Prisoner Perceptions of Staff

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kubiak, Sheryl Pimlott

2009-01-01

Hybrid treatment models within prisons are staffed by both criminal justice and treatment professionals. Because these models may be indicative of future trends, examining the perceptions of prisoners/participants may provide important information. This study examines the perceptions of male and female inmates in three prisons, comparing those in…

Assessing Desistance in Child Molesters: A Qualitative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Mark; Beech, Anthony R.; Ward, Tony

2012-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the process of desistance from sexual crime by comparing two groups of child molesters: One group was deemed to be "desisting", while men in the other group were deemed as being still potentially "active" offenders. Men in the desisting group reported being optimistic for the future,…

Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Future Substance Use Disorders: Comparative Meta-Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charach, Alice; Yeung, Emanuela; Climans, Troy; Lillie, Erin

2011-01-01

Objective: In recent years cohort studies have examined childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a risk factor for substance use disorders (SUDs) in adolescence and young adulthood. The long-term risk is estimated for development of alcohol, cannabis, combined alcohol and psychoactive SUDs, combined SUDs (nonalcohol), and…

Payload/orbiter contamination control requirement study: Computer interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bareiss, L. E.; Hooper, V. W.; Ress, E. B.

1976-01-01

The MSFC computer facilities, and future plans for them are described relative to characteristics of the various computers as to availability and suitability for processing the contamination program. A listing of the CDC 6000 series and UNIVAC 1108 characteristics is presented so that programming requirements can be compared directly and differences noted.

Gender Differences in How Retirees Perceive Factors Influencing Unretirement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armstrong-Stassen, Marjorie; Staats, Sara

2012-01-01

Returning to paid employment after retirement is occurring in many developed countries and can be expected to increase in the future. This study compared how women (n = 202) and men (n = 347) who had retired from a managerial or professional career occupation perceived factors associated with unretirement. Retired professional women perceived…

Inclusive Leadership Development: Drawing From Pedagogies of Women's and General Leadership Development Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sugiyama, Keimei; Cavanagh, Kevin V.; van Esch, Chantal; Bilimoria, Diana; Brown, Cara

2016-01-01

Trends in extant literature suggest that more relational and identity-based leadership approaches are necessary for leadership that can harness the benefits of the diverse and globalized workforces of today and the future. In this study, we compared general leadership development programs (GLDPs) and women's leadership development programs (WLDPs)…

Narrative Abilities, Memory and Attention in Children with a Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duinmeijer, Iris; de Jong, Jan; Scheper, Annette

2012-01-01

Background: While narrative tasks have proven to be valid measures for detecting language disorders, measuring communicative skills and predicting future academic performance, research into the comparability of different narrative tasks has shown that outcomes are dependent on the type of task used. Although many of the studies detecting task…

Elementary Teacher Education in the Top Performing European TIMSS Countries: A Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sabrin, Mohammed

2018-01-01

This paper analyzed elementary teacher education (hereafter 'TED') programs in the top performing European (TIMSS) countries to help inform future elementary TED policy in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Methodological emphasis revolved around how much emphasis should be placed on general content knowledge (GCK), as opposed to general pedagogical…

Differences in stress and coping for mothers and fathers of children with Asperger's syndrome and nonverbal learning disorders.

PubMed

Little, Liza

2002-01-01

Research conducted on families of children with disabilities shows that family cohesion and positive family outcomes are influenced by how mothers and fathers cope with raising their child with disabilities. This study was designed to examine stress and coping differences between mothers and fathers (n = 103) of children with Asperger's syndrome (AS) and nonverbal learning disorders (NLD). A repeated measure design was used to compare how mothers and fathers cope with caring for a particular child to control for differences in the severity and nature of the disability across children. Few studies that compare mothers and fathers do so at the couple level. Responses indicated that mothers had higher rates of stress related to family problems and pessimism about their child's future, higher rates of antidepressant use, and higher rates of therapy use than did fathers. Mothers found some coping strategies more helpful than fathers did. Maternal education and child's age also were related to some stress and coping variables. Implications for nurses and future research are discussed.

Reference Mission Version 3.0 Addendum to the Human Exploration of Mars: The Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploration Study Team. Addendum; 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Bret G. (Editor)

1998-01-01

This Addendum to the Mars Reference Mission was developed as a companion document to the NASA Special Publication 6107, "Human Exploration of Mars: The Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploration Study Team." It summarizes changes and updates to the Mars Reference Missions that were developed by the Exploration Office since the final draft of SP 6107 was printed in early 1999. The Reference Mission is a tool used by the exploration community to compare and evaluate approaches to mission and system concepts that could be used for human missions to Mars. It is intended to identify and clarify system drivers, significant sources of cost, performance, risk, and schedule variation. Several alternative scenarios, employing different technical approaches to solving mission and technology challenges, are discussed in this Addendum. Comparing alternative approaches provides the basis for continual improvement to technology investment plan and a general understanding of future human missions to Mars. The Addendum represents a snapshot of work in progress in support of planning for future human exploration missions through May 1998.

Are Elias 2-27's Spiral Arms Driven by Self-gravity, or by a Companion? A Comparative Spiral Morphology Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forgan, Duncan H.; Ilee, John D.; Meru, Farzana

2018-06-01

The spiral waves detected in the protostellar disk surrounding Elias 2-27 have been suggested as evidence of the disk being gravitationally unstable. However, previous work has shown that a massive, stable disk undergoing an encounter with a massive companion are also consistent with the observations. We compare the spiral morphology of smoothed particle hydrodynamic simulations modeling both cases. The gravitationally unstable disk produces symmetric, tightly wound spiral arms with constant pitch angle, as predicted by the literature. The companion disk’s arms are asymmetric, with pitch angles that increase with radius. However, these arms are not well-fitted by standard analytic expressions, due to the high disk mass and relatively low companion mass. We note that differences (or indeed similarities) in morphology between pairs of spirals is a crucial discriminant between scenarios for Elias 2-27, and hence future studies must fit spiral arms individually. If Elias 2-27 continues to show symmetric tightly wound spiral arms in future observations, then we posit that it is the first observed example of a gravitationally unstable protostellar disk.

Asymptomatic population reference values for three knee patient-reported outcomes measures: evaluation of an electronic data collection system and implications for future international, multi-centre cohort studies.

PubMed

McLean, James M; Brumby-Rendell, Oscar; Lisle, Ryan; Brazier, Jacob; Dunn, Kieran; Gill, Tiffany; Hill, Catherine L; Mandziak, Daniel; Leith, Jordan

2018-05-01

The aim was to assess whether the Knee Society Score, Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) were comparable in asymptomatic, healthy, individuals of different age, gender and ethnicity, across two remote continents. The purpose of this study was to establish normal population values for these scores using an electronic data collection system. There is no difference in clinical knee scores in an asymptomatic population when comparing age, gender and ethnicity, across two remote continents. 312 Australian and 314 Canadian citizens, aged 18-94 years, with no active knee pain, injury or pathology in the ipsilateral knee corresponding to their dominant arm, were evaluated. A knee examination was performed and participants completed an electronically administered questionnaire covering the subjective components of the knee scores. The cohorts were age- and gender-matched. Chi-square tests, Fisher's exact test and Poisson regression models were used where appropriate, to investigate the association between knee scores, age, gender, ethnicity and nationality. There was a significant inverse relationship between age and all assessment tools. OKS recorded a significant difference between gender with females scoring on average 1% lower score. There was no significant difference between international cohorts when comparing all assessment tools. An electronic, multi-centre data collection system can be effectively utilized to assess remote international cohorts. Differences in gender, age, ethnicity and nationality should be taken into consideration when using knee scores to compare to pathological patient scores. This study has established an electronic, normal control group for future studies using the Knee society, Oxford, and KOOS knee scores. Diagnostic Level II.

Do strategic processes contribute to the specificity of future simulation in depression?

PubMed

Addis, Donna Rose; Hach, Sylvia; Tippett, Lynette J

2016-06-01

The tendency to generate overgeneral past or future events is characteristic of individuals with a history of depression. Although much research has investigated the contribution of rumination and avoidance to the reduced specificity of past events, comparatively little research has examined (1) whether the specificity of future events is differentially reduced in depression and (2) the role of executive functions in this phenomenon. Our study aimed to redress this imbalance. Participants with either current or past experience of depressive symptoms ('depressive group'; N = 24) and matched controls ('control group'; N = 24) completed tests of avoidance, rumination, and executive functions. A modified Autobiographical Memory Test was administered to assess the specificity of past and future events. The depressive group were more ruminative and avoidant than controls, but did not exhibit deficits in executive function. Although overall the depressive group generated significantly fewer specific events than controls, this reduction was driven by a significant group difference in future event specificity. Strategic retrieval processes were correlated with both past and future specificity, and predictive of the future specificity, whereas avoidance and rumination were not. Our findings demonstrate that future simulation appears to be particularly vulnerable to disruption in individuals with current or past experience of depressive symptoms, consistent with the notion that future simulation is more cognitively demanding than autobiographical memory retrieval. Moreover, our findings suggest that even subtle changes in executive functions such as strategic processes may impact the ability to imagine specific future events. Future simulation may be particularly vulnerable to executive dysfunction in individuals with current/previous depressive symptoms, with evidence of a differential reduction in the specificity of future events. Strategic retrieval abilities were associated with the degree of future event specificity whereas levels of rumination and avoidance were not. Given that the ability to generate specific simulations of the future is associated with enhanced psychological wellbeing, problem solving and coping behaviours, understanding how to increase the specificity of future simulations in depression is an important direction for future research and clinical practice. Interventions focusing on improving the ability to engage strategic processes may be a fruitful avenue for increasing the ability to imagine specific future events in depression. The autobiographical event tasks have somewhat limited ecological validity as they do not account for the many social and environmental cues present in everyday life; the development of more clinically-relevant tasks may be of benefit to this area of study. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Optimizing farm landscape by two decision-support tools for present and future: A case study in a mountainous farm of Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, S.; Lin, Y.

2013-12-01

Rapid expansion of agricultural land-use has been identified as the main factor degrading biodiversity. Many studies have indicated that habitat quality and connectivity for multiple species can be preserved by applying the systematic conservation planning and software programs for spatial conservation prioritizations are usually used by planners to solve conservation problems for present and future. However, each conservation software program uses different algorithms and may not be suitable or efficient for all case studies. Therefore, in this study we compared the performance of two commonly used decision-support tools, Marxan and Zonation, on identifying priority areas as reserve region for 16 bird species in the mountain area of Taiwan. The priority areas are considered as the results of the tradeoff between bird presence (biological factor) and agricultural products (economic factor). Marxan uses the minimum set approach to identify priority areas for meeting specific targets while Zonation uses the maximum coverage approach to identify priority areas given a fixed budget. Therefore, we design the scenario with the most comparable setting, which selects target-based planning as the removal rule and boundary length penalty option in zonation. The landscape composition and configuration of the simulated priority areas were further evaluated by using landscape metrics and their similarity were examined by using Spearman's rank tests. The results showed that Marxan performed more efficiently while Zonation generated the priority areas in better connectivity. As the selection of conservation programs depends on users objectives and needs for present and future, this study provides useful information on determining suitable and efficient decision-support tools for future bird conservation. Conservation maps for Zonation based on different BLP parameter. The conservation value for Zonation is based on the hierarchical solution output. (a)BLP =1000 (b)BLP =3000 (c)BLP =5000 (d)BLP =7000 Conservation maps for Marxan based on different BMP parameter. The conservation value for Marxan is based on the selection frequency. (a)BMP =2500 (b)BMP =5000 (c)BMP =7500 (d)BMP =10000

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Characterizing the subjective experience of episodic past, future, and counterfactual thinking in healthy younger and older adults.

PubMed

De Brigard, Felipe; Giovanello, Kelly S; Stewart, Gregory W; Lockrow, Amber W; O'Brien, Margaret M; Spreng, R Nathan

2016-12-01

Recent evidence demonstrates remarkable overlap in the neural and cognitive mechanisms underlying episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and episodic counterfactual thinking. However, the extent to which the phenomenological characteristics associated with these mental simulations change as a result of ageing remains largely unexplored. The current study employs adapted versions of the Memory Characteristics Questionnaire and the Autobiographical Interview to compare the phenomenological characteristics associated with both positive and negative episodic past, future, and counterfactual simulations in younger and older adults. Additionally, it explores the influence of perceived likelihood in the experience of such simulations. The results indicate that, across all simulations, older adults generate more external details and report higher ratings of vividness, composition, and intensity than young adults. Conversely, younger adults generate more internal details across all conditions and rated positive and negative likely future events as more likely than did older adults. Additionally, both younger and older adults reported higher ratings for sensory, composition, and intensity factors during episodic memories relative to future and counterfactual thoughts. Finally, for both groups, ratings of spatial coherence and composition were higher for likely counterfactuals than for both unlikely counterfactuals and future simulations. Implications for the psychology of mental simulation and ageing are discussed.

Impact of age-relevant goals on future thinking in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Lapp, Leann K; Spaniol, Julia

2017-10-01

This study investigated how personal goals influence age differences in episodic future thinking. Research suggests that personal goals change with age and like autobiographical memory, future thinking is thought to be organised and impacted by personal goals. It was hypothesised that cueing older adults with age-relevant goals should modulate age differences in episodic details and may also influence phenomenological characteristics of imagined scenarios. Healthy younger and older adults completed the Future Thinking Interview [Addis, D. R., Wong, A. T., & Schacter, D. L. (2008). Age-related changes in the episodic simulation of future events. Psychological Science, 19(1), 33-41. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02043.x ] adapted to activate age-appropriate goals. Narratives were scored with an established protocol to obtain objective measures of episodic and semantic details. Subjective features such as emotionality and personal significance showed age differences as a function of goal domain while other features (e.g., vividness) were unaffected. However, consistent with prior reports, older adults produced fewer episodic details than younger adults and this was not modulated by goal domain. The results do not indicate that goal activation affects level of episodic detail. With respect to phenomenological aspects of future thinking, however, younger adults show more sensitivity to goal activation, compared with older adults.

Cognitive bias in back pain patients attending osteopathy: testing the enmeshment model in reference to future thinking.

PubMed

Read, Jessica; Pincus, Tamar

2004-12-01

Depressive symptoms are common in chronic pain. Previous research has found differences in information-processing biases in depressed pain patients and depressed people without pain. The schema enmeshment model of pain (SEMP) has been proposed to explain chronic pain patients' information-processing biases. Negative future thinking is common in depression but has not been explored in relation to chronic pain and information-processing models. The study aimed to test the SEMP with reference to future thinking. An information-processing paradigm compared endorsement and recall bias between depressed and non-depressed chronic low back pain patients and control participants. Twenty-five depressed and 35 non-depressed chronic low back pain patients and 25 control participants (student osteopaths) were recruited from an osteopathy practice. Participants were asked to endorse positive and negative ill-health, depression-related, and neutral (control) adjectives, encoded in reference to either current or future time-frame. Incidental recall of the adjectives was then tested. While the expected hypothesis of a recall bias by depressed pain patients towards ill-health stimuli in the current condition was confirmed, the recall bias was not present in the future condition. Additionally, patterns of endorsement and recall bias differed. Results extend understanding of future thinking in chronic pain within the context of the SEMP.

The neural basis of temporal order processing in past and future thought.

PubMed

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Jeunehomme, Olivier; Majerus, Steve; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric

2015-01-01

Although growing evidence has shown that remembering the past and imagining the future recruit a common core network of frontal-parietal-temporal regions, the extent to which these regions contribute to the temporal dimension of autobiographical thought remains unclear. In this fMRI study, we focused on the event-sequencing aspect of time and examined whether ordering past and future events involve common neural substrates. Participants had to determine which of two past (or future) events occurred (or would occur) before the other, and these order judgments were compared with a task requiring to think about the content of the same past or future events. For both past and future events, we found that the left posterior hippocampus was more activated when establishing the order of events, whereas the anterior hippocampus was more activated when representing their content. Aside from the hippocampus, most of the brain regions that were activated when thinking about temporal order (notably the intraparietal sulcus, dorsolateral pFC, dorsal anterior cingulate, and visual cortex) lied outside the core network and may reflect the involvement of controlled processes and visuospatial imagery to locate events in time. Collectively, these findings suggest (a) that the same processing operations are engaged for ordering past events and planned future events in time, (b) that anterior and posterior portions of the hippocampus are involved in processing different aspects of autobiographical thought, and (c) that temporal order is not necessarily an intrinsic property of memory or future thought but instead requires additional, controlled processes.

Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

PubMed

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-11-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pregnancy Intentions and Safer Pregnancy Knowledge Among Female Sex Workers in Port Elizabeth, South Africa.

PubMed

Rao, Amrita; Baral, Stefan; Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Lambert, Andrew; Kose, Zamakayise; Mcingana, Mfezi; Holland, Claire; Ketende, Sosthenes; Schwartz, Sheree

2016-07-01

To assess the association between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and pregnancy intentions and safer conception knowledge among female sex workers in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. This cross-sectional study recruited female sex workers in Port Elizabeth using respondent-driven sampling and completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire alongside HIV testing and counseling. In this secondary analysis, robust Poisson regression was used to model prevalence ratios for positive fertility intentions in this cross-sectional study. Knowledge of safer conception methods by HIV status was compared using Fisher exact tests. Overall 391 women were represented in the analyses. More than 50% had a prior HIV diagnosis, and an additional 12% were diagnosed with HIV during the study. Approximately half (n=185) of the women reported future pregnancy intentions. In univariate analysis, a prior HIV diagnosis was negatively associated with pregnancy intentions as compared with HIV-negative women (prevalence ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.85). Only parity remained independently associated with future pregnancy intentions in multivariate regression after controlling for HIV status, age, race, relationship status, and years selling sex. Knowledge of safer conception methods such as timed sex without a condom, preexposure prophylaxis, or self-insemination was low and similar between those with and without future pregnancy plans. Pregnancy intentions did not significantly vary according to HIV status. Fertility intentions were high, however, and knowledge of safer conception methods low, suggesting a need to provide female sex workers with advice around options to conceive safely in the context of high HIV prevalence.

Reasonable classical concepts in human lower limb anatomy from the viewpoint of the primitive persistent sciatic artery and twisting human lower limb.

PubMed

Kawashima, Tomokazu; Sasaki, Hiroshi

2010-11-01

The main aim of this review is (1) to introduce the two previous studies we published human lower limb anatomy based on the conventional macroscopic anatomical [corrected] criteria with hazardous recognition of this description, (2) to activate the discussion whether the limb homology exists, and (3) to contribute to future study filling the gap between the gross anatomy and embryology. One of the topics we discussed was the human persistent sciatic artery. To date, numerous human cases of persistent sciatic artery have been reported in which the anomalous artery was present in the posterior compartment of the thigh alongside the sciatic nerve. As one of the important criteria for assessing the human primitive sciatic artery, its ventral arterial position with respect to the sciatic nerve is reasonable based on the initial positional relationship between ventral arterial and dorsal nervous systems and comparative anatomical findings. We also discuss ways of considering the topography of muscles of the lower limb and their innervations compared to those of the upper limb. We propose a schema of the complex anatomical characteristics of the lower limb based on the vertebrate body plan. According to this reasonable schema, the twisted anatomy of the lower limb can be understood more easily. These two main ideas discussed in this paper will be useful for further understanding of the anatomy of the lower limb and as a first step for future. We hope that the future study in lower limb will be further developed by both viewpoints of the classical gross anatomy and recent embryology.

Head Trauma with or without Mild Brain Injury Increases the Risk of Future Traumatic Death: A Controlled Prospective 15-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Vaaramo, Kalle; Puljula, Jussi; Tetri, Sami; Juvela, Seppo; Hillbom, Matti

2015-10-15

Patients who have recovered from traumatic brain injury (TBI) show an increased risk of premature death. To investigate long-term mortality rates in a population admitted to the hospital for head injury (HI), we conducted a population-based prospective case-control, record-linkage study, All subjects who were living in Northern Ostrobothnia, and who were admitted to Oulu University Hospital in 1999 because of HI (n=737), and 2196 controls matched by age, gender, and residence randomly drawn from the population of Northern Ostrobothnia were included. Death rate and causes of death in HI subjects during 15 years of follow-up was compared with the general population controls. The crude mortality rates were 56.9, 18.6, and 23.8% for subjects having moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), mild TBI, and head injury without TBI, respectively. The corresponding approximate annual mortality rates were 6.7%, 1.4%, and 1.9%. All types of index HI predicted a significant risk of traumatic death in the future. Subjects who had HI without TBI had an increased risk of both death from all causes (hazard ratio 2.00; 95% confidence interval 1.57-2.55) and intentional or unintentional traumatic death (4.01, 2.20-7.30), compared with controls. The main founding was that even HI without TBI carries an increased risk of future traumatic death. The reason for this remains unknown and further studies are needed. To prevent such premature deaths, post-traumatic therapy should include an interview focusing on lifestyle factors.

Microplastics in freshwater and terrestrial environments: Evaluating the current understanding to identify the knowledge gaps and future research priorities.

PubMed

Horton, Alice A; Walton, Alexander; Spurgeon, David J; Lahive, Elma; Svendsen, Claus

2017-05-15

Plastic debris is an environmentally persistent and complex contaminant of increasing concern. Understanding the sources, abundance and composition of microplastics present in the environment is a huge challenge due to the fact that hundreds of millions of tonnes of plastic material is manufactured for societal use annually, some of which is released to the environment. The majority of microplastics research to date has focussed on the marine environment. Although freshwater and terrestrial environments are recognised as origins and transport pathways of plastics to the oceans, there is still a comparative lack of knowledge about these environmental compartments. It is highly likely that microplastics will accumulate within continental environments, especially in areas of high anthropogenic influence such as agricultural or urban areas. This review critically evaluates the current literature on the presence, behaviour and fate of microplastics in freshwater and terrestrial environments and, where appropriate, also draws on relevant studies from other fields including nanotechnology, agriculture and waste management. Furthermore, we evaluate the relevant biological and chemical information from the substantial body of marine microplastic literature, determining the applicability and comparability of this data to freshwater and terrestrial systems. With the evidence presented, the authors have set out the current state of the knowledge, and identified the key gaps. These include the volume and composition of microplastics entering the environment, behaviour and fate of microplastics under a variety of environmental conditions and how characteristics of microplastics influence their toxicity. Given the technical challenges surrounding microplastics research, it is especially important that future studies develop standardised techniques to allow for comparability of data. The identification of these research needs will help inform the design of future studies, to determine both the extent and potential ecological impacts of microplastic pollution in freshwater and terrestrial environments. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation options to future climate of maize crop in Southern Italy examined using thermal sums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Tommasi, P.; Alfieri, S. M.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Future climate scenarios predict substantial changes in air temperature within a few decades and agriculture needs to increase the capacity of adaptation both by changing spatial distribution of crops and shifting timing of management. In this context the prediction of future behaviour of crops with respect to present climate could be useful for farm and landscape management. In this work, thermal sums were used to simulate a maize crop in a future scenario, in terms of length of the growing season and of intervals between the main phenological stages. The area under study is the Sele plain (Campania Region), a pedo-climatic homogeneous area, one of the most agriculturally advanced and relevant flatland in Southern Italy. Maize was selected for the present study since it is extensively grown in the Sele Plain for water buffalofeeding,. Daily time-series of climatic data of the area under study were generated within the Italian project AGROSCENARI, and include maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. The 1961-1990 and the 1998-2008 periods were compared to a future climate scenario (2021-2050). Future time series were generated using a statistical downscaling technique (Tomozeiu et al., 2007) from general circulation models (AOGCM). Differences in crop development length were calculated for different maize varieties under 3 management options for sowing time: custom date (typical for the area), before and after custom date. The interactions between future thermal regime and the length of growing season under the different management options were analyzed. Moreover, frequency of spells of high temperatures during the anthesis was examined. The feasibility of the early sowing option was discussed in relation with field trafficability at the beginning of the crop cycle. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

A statistical view of FMRFamide neuropeptide diversity.

PubMed

Espinoza, E; Carrigan, M; Thomas, S G; Shaw, G; Edison, A S

2000-01-01

FMRFamide-like peptide (FLP) amino acid sequences have been collected and statistically analyzed. FLP amino acid composition as a function of position in the peptide is graphically presented for several major phyla. Results of total amino acid composition and frequencies of pairs of FLP amino acids have been computed and compared with corresponding values from the entire GenBank protein sequence database. The data for pairwise distributions of amino acids should help in future structure-function studies of FLPs. To aid in future peptide discovery, a computer program and search protocol was developed to identify FLPs from the GenBank protein database without the use of keywords.

Ambient response of a unique performance-based design building with dynamic response modification features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Çelebi, Mehmet; Huang, Moh; Shakal, Antony; Hooper, John; Klemencic, Ron

2012-01-01

A 64-story, performance-based design building with reinforced concrete core shear-walls and unique dynamic response modification features (tuned liquid sloshing dampers and buckling-restrained braces) has been instrumented with a monitoring array of 72 channels of accelerometers. Ambient vibration data recorded are analyzed to identify modes and associated frequencies and damping. The low-amplitude dynamic characteristics are considerably different than those computed from design analyses, but serve as a baseline against which to compare with future strong shaking responses. Such studies help to improve our understanding of the effectiveness of the added features to the building and help improve designs in the future.

Space transportation system biomedical operations support study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, S. C.

1983-01-01

The shift of the Space Transportation System (STS) flight tests of the orbiter vehicle to the preparation and flight of the payloads is discussed. Part of this change is the transition of the medical and life sciences aspects of the STS flight operations to reflect the new state. The medical operations, the life sciences flight experiments support requirements and the intramural research program expected to be at KSC during the operational flight period of the STS and a future space station are analyzed. The adequacy of available facilities, plans, and resources against these future needs are compared; revisions and/or alternatives where appropriate are proposed.

[Stability of long-term professional objectives of young physicians during postgraduate training. Results of a multicenter cohort study].

PubMed

Birck, S; Gedrose, B; Robra, B-P; Schmidt, A; Schultz, J-H; Stosch, C; Wagner, R; Janßen, N; Scherer, M; van den Bussche, H

2014-10-01

We investigated persistences and changes of career preferences of medical residents in Germany after two years of postgraduate training with regard to future working place and position. The results are compared with those forwarded at graduation from medical school in a gender comparative perspective. The study is based on a standardized postal survey among the participants in the "KarMed" study, originally based on 1012 graduates of the medical faculties of Erlangen, Giessen, Hamburg, Heidelberg, Cologne, Leipzig and Magdeburg in 2009. 2107 persons were contacted. The return rate at baseline was 48 %, and the two surveys after the baseline reached return rates of 87 % and 89 % respectively. In all samples 2/3 were women as in actual medical undergraduate education. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis were performed. After 2 years of residency, residents after 2 years of postgraduate training still preferred the hospital over private practice as their final workplace after postgraduate training. The attractiveness of leading positions in the hospital declined among men, whereas it was already low for women at graduation. A large proportion of those physicians preferring the ambulatory sector, especially women, wishes to work as employee instead of private practice. At the personal level, almost 60 % forwarded the same preferences as those at graduation. Gender, parenthood and region of study (East vs. West Germany) did not influence stability or change of preferences. The results demonstrate the persistence of professional preferences regarding future sector and position of medical work during postgraduate training. These preferences do neither match with principles of gender equality nor with future workforce needs (e. g. in primary care). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Pu; Brutnell, Thomas P.

C 4 photosynthesis is used by only three percent of all flowering plants, but explains a quarter of global primary production, including some of the worlds’ most important cereals and bioenergy grasses. Recent advances in our understanding of C 4 development can be attributed to the application of comparative transcriptomics approaches that has been fueled by high throughput sequencing. Global surveys of gene expression conducted between different developmental stages or on phylogenetically closely related C 3 and C 4 species are providing new insights into C 4 function, development and evolution. Importantly, through co-expression analysis and comparative genomics, these studiesmore » help define novel candidate genes that transcend traditional genetic screens. In this review, we briefly summarize the major findings from recent transcriptomic studies, compare and contrast these studies to summarize emerging consensus, and suggest new approaches to exploit the data. Lastly, we suggest using Setaria viridis as a model system to relieve a major bottleneck in genetic studies of C 4 photosynthesis, and discuss the challenges and new opportunities for future comparative transcriptomic studies.« less

Comparing Asian American Women's Knowledge, Self-Efficacy, and Perceived Risk of Heart Attack to Other Racial and Ethnic Groups: The mPED Trial.

PubMed

Fukuoka, Yoshimi; Lisha, Nadra E; Vittinghoff, Eric

2017-09-01

The aim of the study was to compare knowledge and awareness of heart attacks/heart disease and perceived risk for future heart attack in Asian/Pacific Islander women, compared to other racial and ethnic groups. In this cross-sectional study, 318 women enrolled in a mobile phone-based physical activity education trial were analyzed. Heart attack knowledge, self-efficacy for recognizing and responding to heart attack symptoms, and perceived risk for a future heart attack were measured. Analyses were conducted using logistic, proportional odds, and linear regression models, depending on the outcome and adjusting for age. Pairwise differences between Asian/Pacific Islanders and the other four groups were assessed using a Bonferroni correction (p < 0.0125). Asian/Pacific Islander women had significantly lower total scores for knowledge of heart attack and self-efficacy for heart attack recognition and care seeking behavior compared to the Caucasian women (p = 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). However, perceived risk did not differ among the groups. Forty-six percent of the Asian American women, compared to 25% of Caucasian women, falsely believed "breast cancer is the number one cause of death for women (p = 0.002)." In addition, Asian/Pacific Islander women were less likely to report "arm pain, numbness, tingling, or radiating" as one of the heart attack symptoms compared to the Caucasian and the multiracial group (34%, 63% [p < 0.001], and 66% [p = 0.004], respectively). These findings highlight the urgent need to develop effective, tailored campaigns to close the knowledge gap between Asian/Pacific Islander women and Caucasian women.

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

2017-02-01

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

Depression in perinatally HIV-infected pregnant women compared to non-perinatally HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected pregnant women.

PubMed

Angrand, Ruth C; Sperling, Rhoda; Roccobono, Kinga; Osborne, Lauren M; Jao, Jennifer

2018-05-18

"Depression (as noted in chart by a physician)" was compared between HIV infected pregnant women and controls. Perinatally HIV-infected (PHIV), non-perinatally HIV-infected (NPHIV), and HIV-uninfected (HIV-U) pregnant women were all compared using a logistic regression model. Overall, HIV-infected women had higher rates of depression than HIV-U, with PHIV women demonstrating a clinically and statistically significant increased risk compared to HIV-U women [adjusted OR: 15.9, 95% CI = 1.8-143.8]. Future studies in larger populations are warranted to confirm these findings and further elucidate mental health outcomes of PHIV and NPHIV pregnant women.

Report of Subcommittee 2 on AACR2 of the Committee to Study the Future of the Card Catalog of the University of Cincinnati Library.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grimm, Emily; And Others

The result of a study which compared the Anglo-American Cataloging Rules, 2d edition (AACR2), with current cataloging practices at the University of Cincinnati libraries, this report contains chapter-by-chapter commentary on the following areas: the cataloging philosophy of AACR2; general rules for description; books, pamphlets, and printed…

The Influence of Social Networking Photos on Social Norms and Sexual Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Jordan, Alexander H.

2013-01-01

Abstract Two studies tested whether online social networking technologies influence health behavioral social norms, and in turn, personal health behavioral intentions. In Study 1, experimental participants browsed peers' Facebook photos on a college network with a low prevalence of sexually suggestive content. Participants estimated the percentage of their peers who have sex without condoms, and rated their own future intentions to use condoms. Experimental participants, compared to controls who did not view photos, estimated that a larger percentage of their peers use condoms, and indicated a greater intention to use condoms themselves in the future. In Study 2, participants were randomly assigned to view sexually suggestive or nonsexually suggestive Facebook photos, and responded to sexual risk behavioral questions. Compared to participants viewing nonsuggestive photos, those who viewed sexually suggestive Facebook photos estimated that a larger percentage of their peers have unprotected sexual intercourse and sex with strangers and were more likely to report that they themselves would engage in these behaviors. Thus, online social networks can influence perceptions of the peer prevalence of sexual risk behaviors, and can influence users' own intentions with regard to such behaviors. These studies suggest the potential power of social networks to affect health behaviors by altering perceptions of peer norms. PMID:23438268

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2016-04-01

In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

Impact of a future H2 transportation on atmospheric pollution in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popa, M. E.; Segers, A. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Krol, M. C.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-07-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we implemented H2 in the atmospheric transport and chemistry model LOTOS-EUROS. We simulated the present and future (2020) air quality, using emission scenarios with different proportions of H2 vehicles and different H2 leakage rates. The reference future scenario does not include H2 vehicles, and assumes that all present and planned European regulations for emissions are fully implemented. We find that, in general, the air quality in 2020 is significantly improved compared to the current situation in all scenarios, with and without H2 cars. In the future scenario without H2 cars, the pollution is reduced due to the strict European regulations: annually averaged CO, NOx and PM2.5 over the model domain decrease by 15%, 30% and 20% respectively. The additional improvement brought by replacing 50% or 100% of traditionally-fueled vehicles by H2 vehicles is smaller in absolute terms. If 50% of vehicles are using H2, the CO, NOx and PM2.5 decrease by 1%, 10% and 1% respectively, compared to the future scenario without H2 cars. When all vehicles run on H2, then additional decreases in CO, NOx and PM2.5 are 5%, 40%, and 5% relative to the no-H2 cars future scenario. Our study shows that H2 vehicles may be an effective pathway to fulfill the strict future EU air quality regulations. O3 has a more complicated behavior - its annual average decreases in background areas, but increases in the high-NOx area in western Europe, with the decrease in NOx. A more detailed analysis shows that the population exposure to high O3 levels decreases nevertheless. In all future scenarios, traffic emissions account for only a small proportion of the total anthropogenic emissions, thus it becomes more important to better regulate emissions of non-traffic sectors. Although atmospheric H2 increases significantly in the high-leakage scenarios considered, the additional H2 added into the atmosphere does not have a significant effect on the ground level air pollution in Europe.

Neuroeconomics of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: differential influences of medial, dorsal, and ventral prefrontal brain networks on suboptimal decision making?

PubMed

Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S; Fairchild, Graeme

2012-07-15

Psychiatric neuroeconomics offers an alternative approach to understanding mental disorders by studying the way disorder-related neurobiological alterations constrain economic agency, as revealed through decisions about choices between future goods. In this article, we apply this perspective to understand suboptimal decision making in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) by integrating recent advances in the neuroscience of decision making and studies of the pathophysiology of ADHD. We identify three brain networks as candidates for further study and develop specific hypotheses about how these could be implicated in ADHD. First, we postulate that altered patterns of connectivity within a network linking medial prefrontal cortex and posterior cingulate cortex (i.e., the default mode network) disrupts ordering of utilities, prospection about desired future states, setting of future goals, and implementation of aims. Second, we hypothesize that deficits in dorsal frontostriatal networks, including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and dorsal striatum, produce executive dysfunction-mediated impairments in the ability to compare outcome options and make choices. Third, we propose that dopaminergic dysregulation in a ventral frontostriatal network encompassing the orbitofrontal cortex, ventral striatum, and amygdala disrupts processing of cues of future utility, evaluation of experienced outcomes (feedback), and learning of associations between cues and outcomes. Finally, we extend this perspective to consider three contemporary themes in ADHD research. Copyright © 2012 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea. PMID:29690535

Large-scale assessment of present day and future groundwater recharge and its sensitivity to climate variability in Europe's karst regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wagener, T.; Wada, Y.

2016-12-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

Potential Impact of the National Plan for Future Electric Power Supply on Air Quality in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, C.; Hong, J.

2014-12-01

Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the national plan for Korea's future electric power supply (2013 - 2027) in 2013. According to the plan, the national demand for electricity will be increased by 60% compared to that of 2010 and primary energy sources for electric generation will still lean on the fossil fuels such as petroleum, LNG, and coal, which would be a potential threat to air quality of Korea. This study focused on two subjects: (1) How the spatial distribution of the primary air pollutant's emissions (i.e., NOx, SOx, CO, PM) will be changed and (2) How the primary emission changes will influence on the national ambient air quality including ozone in 2027. We used GEOS-Chem model simulation with modification of Korean emissions inventory (Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)) to simulate the current and future air quality in Korea. The national total emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM in year 2027 will be increased by 3%, 8%, 13%, 2%, respectively compared to 2010 and there are additional concern that the future location of the power plants will be closer to the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), where there are approximately 20 million population vulnerable to the potentially worsened air quality. While there are slight increase of concentration of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM in 2027, the O3 concentration is expected to be similar to the level of 2010. Those results may imply the characteristics of air pollution in East Asia such as potentially severe O3 titration and poorer O3/CO or O3/NOx ratio. Furthermore, we will discuss on the impact of transboundary pollution transport from China in the future, which is one of the large factors to control the air quality of Korea.

Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

2017-04-01

Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-04-21

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature⁻mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991⁻2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

Comparing Subjective With Objective Sleep Parameters Via Multisensory Actigraphy in German Physical Education Students.

PubMed

Kölling, Sarah; Endler, Stefan; Ferrauti, Alexander; Meyer, Tim; Kellmann, Michael

2016-01-01

This study compared subjective with objective sleep parameters among 72 physical education students. Furthermore, the study determined whether 24-hr recording differs from nighttime recording only. Participants wore the SenseWear Armband™ for three consecutive nights and kept a sleep log. Agreement rates ranged from moderate to low for sleep onset latency (ICC = 0.39 to 0.70) and wake after sleep onset (ICC = 0.22 to 0.59), while time in bed (ICC = 0.93 to 0.95) and total sleep time (ICC = 0.90 to 0.92) revealed strong agreement during this period. Comparing deviations between 24-hr wearing time (n = 24) and night-only application (n = 20) revealed no statistical difference (p > 0.05). As athletic populations have yet to be investigated for these purposes, this study provides useful indicators and practical implications for future studies.

Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

PubMed Central

West, R R

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. DESIGN: A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. SETTING: A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. RESULTS: Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. CONCLUSIONS: The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision. PMID:8935452

Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

PubMed

West, R R

1996-06-01

To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision.

Association of knowledge on ART line of treatment, scarcity of treatment options and adherence.

PubMed

Ramadhani, Habib O; Muiruri, Charles; Maro, Venance P; Omondi, Michael; Mushi, Julian B; Lirhunde, Eileen S; Bartlett, John A

2016-07-15

Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is critical piece in the management of HIV infected patients. Despite the benefits of ART, non-adherence to ART persists. This study explores association between patient's knowledge of the ART line of treatment, availability of future treatment options and adherence. A cross sectional survey of HIV infected adolescent and adults was conducted. Cumulative optimal and sub-optimal adherence was defined as percentage adherence of ≥ 95 % and < 95 %, respectively. Binomial regression models were used to assess the association of patient's knowledge of the ART line of treatment, availability of future treatment options and adherence. Of the 402 patients reviewed, 101 (25.1 %) patients knew their ART line of treatment and were aware that future treatment options are limited. Compared to those who were not aware of the ART line of treatment and/or scarcity of future treatment options, those who were aware were more likely to be adherent (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR], 1.1; 95 % CI, 1.0-1.3). The study reports knowledge of patient's ART line of treatment and future treatment options is important indicator of adherence to ART. Although majority of the patients did not have the knowledge, those who had the knowledge demonstrated to be more adherent. It is critical for the physicians/health care providers in these settings to clearly educate patients about ART line of treatment and limited availability of future treatment options as such information is likely to influence individual behavior and improve patient's adherence to ART.

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mexican American 7th Graders’ Future Work and Family Plans: Associations with Cultural Experiences and Adjustment

PubMed Central

Cansler, Emily; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Simpkins, Sandra D.

2011-01-01

We describe Mexican American 7th graders’ expectations for future work and family roles and investigate links between patterns of future expectations and adolescents’ cultural experiences and adjustment. Adolescents participated in home interviews and a series of seven nightly phone calls. Five unique patterns of adolescents’ future expectations were identified (N = 246): Career Oriented, Independent, Family Oriented, Early, and Inconsistent. Career Oriented adolescents had the highest socioeconomic status and contact with the U.S. (e.g., generation status) whereas Family Oriented adolescents had the lowest. Cultural orientations, values, and involvement also varied across groups. For example, Career Oriented adolescents reported significantly higher familism values compared to Inconsistent adolescents. Clusters also differed on adjustment: Career Oriented and Family Oriented adolescents reported higher parental warmth and less risky behavior compared to Independent and Inconsistent adolescents. Findings underscore the multi-faceted nature of adolescents’ future expectations and the diversity in cultural experiences among Mexican origin youth. PMID:23338812

Preliminary design and analysis of an advanced rotorcraft transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henry, Z. S.

1990-01-01

Future rotorcraft transmissions of the 1990s and beyond the year 2000 require the incorporation of key emerging material and component technologies using advanced and innovative design practices in order to meet the requirements for a reduced weight-to-power ratio, a decreased noise level, and a substantially increased reliability. The specific goals for future rotocraft transmissions when compared with current state-of-the-art transmissions are a 25 percent weight reduction, a 10-dB reduction in the transmitted noise level, and a system reliability of 5000 hours mean-time-between-removal for the transmission. This paper presents the results of the design studies conducted to meet the stated goals for an advanced rotorcraft transmission. These design studies include system configuration, planetary gear train selection, and reliability prediction methods.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century.

PubMed

Likhvar, Victoria N; Pascal, Mathilde; Markakis, Konstantinos; Colette, Augustin; Hauglustaine, Didier; Valari, Myrto; Klimont, Zbigniew; Medina, Sylvia; Kinney, Patrick

2015-05-01

Ozone and PM₂.₅ are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. To better understand the potential of emissions policies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. We used consistent climate-air-quality-health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile-de-France) to assess future (2030-2050) health impacts of ozone and PM₂.₅ under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR). Consistently across the scales, we found more reductions in deaths under MFR scenario compared to CLE. 1.5 [95% CI: 0.4, 2.4] million CV deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010 under MFR scenario, 84% of which would occur in Asia, especially in China. In Europe, the benefits under MFR scenario (219000 CV deaths) are noticeably larger than those under CLE (109,000 CV deaths). In Ile-de-France, under MFR more than 2830 annual CV deaths associated with PM₂.₅ changes could be delayed in 2050 compared to 2010. In Paris, ozone-related respiratory mortality should increase under both scenarios. Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online learning for faculty development: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Cook, David A; Steinert, Yvonne

2013-11-01

With the growing presence of computers and Internet technologies in personal and professional lives, it seems prudent to consider how online learning has been and could be harnessed to promote faculty development. Discuss advantages and disadvantages of online faculty development, synthesize what is known from studies involving health professions faculty members, and identify next steps for practice and future research. We searched MEDLINE for studies describing online instruction for developing teaching, leadership, and research skills among health professions faculty, and synthesized these in a narrative review. We found 20 articles describing online faculty development initiatives for health professionals, including seven quantitative comparative studies, four studies utilizing defined qualitative methods, and nine descriptive studies reporting anecdotal lessons learned. These programs addressed diverse topics including clinical teaching, educational assessment, business administration, financial planning, and research skills. Most studies enrolled geographically-distant learners located in different cities, provinces, or countries. Evidence suggests that online faculty development is at least comparable to traditional training, but learner engagement and participation is highly variable. It appears that success is more likely when the course addresses a relevant need, facilitates communication and social interaction, and provides time to complete course activities. Although we identified several practical recommendations for success, the evidence base for online faculty development is sparse and insubstantial. Future research should include rigorous, programmatic, qualitative and quantitative investigations to understand the principles that govern faculty member engagement and success.

The ERP correlates of self-knowledge: Are assessments of one's past, present, and future traits closer to semantic or episodic memory?

PubMed

Tanguay, Annick N; Benton, Lauren; Romio, Lorenza; Sievers, Carolin; Davidson, Patrick S R; Renoult, Louis

2018-02-01

Self-knowledge concerns one's own preferences and personality. It pertains to the self (similar to episodic memory), yet does not concern events. It is factual (like semantic memory), but also idiosyncratic. For these reasons, it is unclear where self-knowledge might fall on a continuum in relation to semantic and episodic memory. In this study, we aimed to compare the event-related potential (ERP) correlates of self-knowledge to those of semantic and episodic memory, using N400 and Late Positive Component (LPC) as proxies for semantic and episodic processing, respectively. We considered an additional factor: time perspective. Temporally distant selves have been suggested to be more semantic compared to the present self, but thinking about one's past and future selves may also engage episodic memory. Twenty-eight adults answered whether traits (e.g., persistent) were true of most people holding an occupation (e.g., soldiers; semantic memory condition), or true of themselves 5 years ago, in the present, or 5 years from now (past, present, and future self-knowledge conditions). The study ended with an episodic recognition memory task for previously seen traits. Present self-knowledge produced mean LPC amplitudes at posterior parietal sites that fell between semantic and episodic memory. Mean LPC amplitudes for past and future self-knowledge were greater than for semantic memory, and not significantly different from episodic memory. Mean N400 amplitudes for the self-knowledge conditions were smaller than for semantic memory at sagittal sites. However, this N400 effect was not separable from a preceding P200 effect at these same electrode sites. This P200 effect can be interpreted as reflecting the greater emotional salience of self as compared to general knowledge, which may have facilitated semantic processing. Overall, our findings are consistent with a distinction between knowledge of others and self-knowledge, but the closeness of self-knowledge's neural correlates to either semantic or episodic memory appears to depend to some extent on time perspective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Offshoring of healthcare services: the case of US-India trade in medical transcription services.

PubMed

Kshetri, Nir; Dholakia, Nikhilesh

2011-01-01

- The issue of offshore outsourcing of healthcare services is a critical but little-examined problem in healthcare research. The purpose of this study is to contribute to filling this void. A library-based study was carried out of the development of the Indian medical transcription offshoring industry. Findings- Cost-saving potential and the degree of outsourceability are higher for medical transcription compared with most services. Offshoring experience, typically in a low-value BPO, helps to enhance productivity and international linkages required for the success of medical transcription. Research limitations/implications - An important area of future research concerns comparing India's factor endowments in medical transcription outsourcing with other services. Further research is also needed to examine how India differs from its regional competitors in terms of factors endowments associated with these services. Another extension would be to investigate the drivers of offshoring of higher value services such as radiological readings. Practical implications - ICT infrastructures needed for outsourcing require much less investment compared with leading capital-intensive industries. The development patterns of the Indian medical and offshoring industries indicate that India may attract higher skilled medical functions in the future. The Indian offshoring industry is shifting its focus from BPO to knowledge process outsourcing (KPO). Developing countries need to shift to greater automation and greater levels of skill training to retain and reinforce their comparative advantages. This paper's greatest value stems from the fact that it examines the drivers of a new but rapidly growing healthcare industry.

Comparative Perspectives on Futures in Education. Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Australian Comparative and International Education Society (10th, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, November 24-26, 1982).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liesch, James R., Ed.

The titles and authors of the 12 conference papers presented in this document are: (1) "China's Immediate Future: Renewed Cultural Borrowing" (R.F. Price); (2) "The Feminization of the Teaching Profession in Singapore" (Christine Inglis); (3) "Towards Equity and Efficiency in the Education System of Mauritius" (Helen…

Sick Leave within 5 Years of Whiplash Trauma Predicts Recovery: A Prospective Cohort and Register-Based Study

PubMed Central

Carstensen, Tina Birgitte Wisbech; Fink, Per; Oernboel, Eva; Kasch, Helge; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Frostholm, Lisbeth

2015-01-01

Background 10–22% of individuals sustaining whiplash trauma develop persistent symptoms resulting in reduced working ability and decreased quality of life, but it is poorly understood why some people do not recover. Various collision and post-collision risk factors have been studied, but little is known about pre-collision risk factors. In particular, the impact of sickness and socioeconomic factors before the collision on recovery is sparsely explored. The aim of this study was to examine if welfare payments received within five years pre-collision predict neck pain and negative change in provisional situation one year post-collision. Methods and Findings 719 individuals with acute whiplash trauma consecutively recruited from emergency departments or primary care after car accidents in Denmark completed questionnaires on socio-demographic and health factors immediately after the collision. After 12 months, a visual analogue scale on neck pain intensity was completed. 3595 matched controls in the general population were sampled, and national public register data on social benefits and any other welfare payments were obtained for participants with acute whiplash trauma and controls from five years pre-collision to 15 months after. Participants with acute whiplash trauma who had received sickness benefit for more than 12 weeks pre-collision had increased odds for negative change in future provisional situation (Odds Ratio (OR) (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.8 (2.1;7.1)) and future neck pain (OR (95%CI) = 3.3 (1.8;6.3)), controlling for other known risk factors. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market (more weeks of sick leave (χ2(2) = 36.7, p < 0.001) and unemployment (χ2(2) = 12.5, p = 0.002)) pre-collision compared with controls. Experiencing a whiplash trauma raised the odds for future negative change in provisional situation (OR (95%CI) = 3.1 (2.3;4.4)) compared with controls. Conclusions Sick leave before the collision strongly predicted prolonged recovery following whiplash trauma. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market pre-collision compared with the general population. Neck pain at inclusion predicted future neck pain. Acute whiplash trauma may trigger pre-existing vulnerabilities increasing risk of developing whiplash-associated disorders. PMID:26098860

Hollingsworth - Aggressive vs Indolent 2012 — EDRN Public Portal

Cancer.gov

Study Overview. We will examine DNA extracted from FFPE sections from approximately 200 different surgically resected primary pancreatic tumors from the UNMC Department of Pathology and Microbiology. DNA will be purified from those sections and subjected to deep sequencing for the entire TP53 locus. Expected Outcomes We expect to find a difference in the p53 mutation status between tumor samples from patients that ultimately experienced tumor recurrence (more aggressive) compared to those that did not. Parallel studies to develop ICP will enable us to rapidly develop a low cost platform to extend these studies to larger patient populations for future validation studies. Future Studies The experiments proposed in this application represent a state-of-the-art approach to identify molecular markers that will help clinicians to ascertain the tumor recurrence risk for their pancreatic cancer patients who have undergone a Whipple procedure. If our initial studies support the hypothesis that p53 mutations are associated with early metastasis of pancreatic cancer, these studies would be extended to other cohorts of patient samples that are available at other major centers that see pancreatic cancer patients. Development of ICE COLD-PCR platforms to screen for these mutations will facilitate a reliable, rapid and low cost method for predicting tumor aggressiveness in these patients, which will be deployed in future studies should the hypothesis be supported.

Plaque Echolucency and Stroke Risk in Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ajay; Kesavabhotla, Kartik; Baradaran, Hediyeh; Kamel, Hooman; Pandya, Ankur; Giambrone, Ashley E.; Wright, Drew; Pain, Kevin J.; Mtui, Edward E.; Suri, Jasjit S.; Sanelli, Pina C.; Mushlin, Alvin I.

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Ultrasonographic plaque echolucency has been studied as a stroke risk marker in carotid atherosclerotic disease. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between ultrasound determined carotid plaque echolucency and future ipsilateral stroke risk. Methods We searched the medical literature for studies evaluating the association between carotid plaque echolucency and future stroke in asymptomatic patients. We included prospective observational studies with stroke outcome ascertainment after baseline carotid plaque echolucency assessment. We performed a meta-analysis and assessed study heterogeneity and publication bias. We also performed subgroup analyses limited to patients with stenosis ≥50%, studies in which plaque echolucency was determined via subjective visual interpretation, studies with a relatively lower risk of bias, and studies published after the year 2000. Results We analyzed data from 7 studies on 7557 subjects with a mean follow up of 37.2 months. We found a significant positive relationship between predominantly echolucent (compared to predominantly echogenic) plaques and the risk of future ipsilateral stroke across all stenosis severities (0-99%) (relative risk [RR], 2.31, 95% CI, 1.58-3.39, P<.001) and in subjects with ≥50% stenosis (RR, 2.61 95% CI, 1.47-4.63, P=.001). A statistically significant increased RR for future stroke was preserved in all additional subgroup analyses. No statistically significant heterogeneity or publication bias was present in any of the meta-analyses. Conclusions The presence of ultrasound-determined carotid plaque echolucency provides predictive information in asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis beyond luminal stenosis. However, the magnitude of the increased risk is not sufficient on its own to identify patients likely to benefit from surgical revascularization. PMID:25406150

Communications payload concepts for geostationary facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poley, William A.; Lekan, Jack

1987-01-01

Summarized and compared are the major results of two NASA sponsored studies that defined potential communication payload concepts to meet the satellite traffic forecast for the turn of the century for the continental US and Region 2 of the International Telecommunications Union. The studies were performed by the Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation and RCA Astro-Electronics (now GE-RCA Astro-Space Division). Future scenarios of aggregations of communications services are presented. Payload concepts are developed and defined in detail for nine of the scenarios. Payload costs and critical technologies per payload are also presented. Finally the payload concepts are compared and the findings of the reports are discussed.

Connections Between Future Time Perspectives and Self-Regulated Learning for Mid-Year Engineering Students: A Multiple Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chasmar, Justine

This dissertation presents multiple studies with the purpose of understanding the connections between undergraduate engineering students' motivations, specifically students' Future Time Perspectives (FTPs) and Self-Regulated Learning (SRL). FTP refers to the views students hold about the future and how their perceptions of current tasks are affected by these views. SRL connects the behaviors, metacognition, and motivation of students in their learning. The goals of this research project were to 1) qualitatively describe and document engineering students' SRL strategies, 2) examine interactions between engineering students' FTPs and SRL strategy use, and 3) explore goal-setting as a bridge between FTP and SRL. In an exploratory qualitative study with mid-year industrial engineering students to examine the SRL strategies used before and after an SRL intervention, results showed that students intended to use more SRL strategies than they attempted. However, students self-reported using new SRL strategies from the intervention. Students in this population also completed a survey and a single interview about FTP and SRL. Results showed perceptions of instrumentality of coursework and skills as motivation for using SRL strategies, and a varied use of SRL strategies for students with different FTPs. Overall, three types of student FTP were seen: students with a single realistic view of the future, conflicting ideal and realistic future views, or open views of the future. A sequential explanatory mixed methods study was conducted with mid-year students from multiple engineering majors. First a cluster analysis of survey results of FTP items compared to FTP interview responses was used for participant selection. Then a multiple case study was conducted with data collected through surveys, journal entries, course performance, and two interviews. Results showed that students with a well-defined FTP self-regulated in the present based on their varied perceptions of instrumentality for their present tasks and evaluated and adapted their SRL strategies based on grades. Students with conflicting perceptions of the future used a high level of SRL in courses related to both conflicting future paths or related to their short-term goals. Students with open views had high SRL in most of their courses due to a high perception of instrumentality for their present courses. Implications for practice include use of a context-based SRL intervention to teach effective learning strategies, a shift of key general education courses to earlier in the engineering curriculum, and utilization of career-focused problems to support student FTP development and stress the importance of course content in future engineering careers.

Local recruitment experience in a study comparing the effectiveness of a low glycaemic index diet with a low calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

PubMed

Atiomo, William; Read, Anna; Golding, Mary; Silcocks, Paul; Razali, Nuguelis; Sarkar, Sabitabrata; Hardiman, Paul; Thornton, Jim

2009-09-01

Feasibility of a clinical-trial comparing a low-glycaemic diet with a low-calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with PCOS. A pilot Randomised-Controlled-Trial using different recruitment strategies. A University Hospital in the United Kingdom. Women seen at specialist gynaecology clinics over a 12 month period in one University Hospital, and women self identified through a website and posters. Potential recruits were assessed for eligibility, gave informed consent, randomised, treated and assessed as in the definitive trial. Eligibility and recruitment rates, compliance with the allocated diet for 6 months and with clinical assessments, blood tests, pelvic ultrasound scans and endometrial biopsies. 1433 new and 2598 follow up patients were seen in 153 gynaecology clinics for over 12 months. 441 (11%) potentially eligible women were identified, 19 (0.4%) of whom met the trial entry criteria. Eleven consented to take part, of which 8 (73%) completed the study. Planned future trials on over-weight women with PCOS should be multicentre and should incorporate primary care. This data will help other researchers plan and calculate the sample size and potential recruitment rates in future clinical trials in PCOS. The results will also be useful for inclusion in future meta-analyses.

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

E-cigarette use in adults: a qualitative study of users' perceptions and future use intentions.

PubMed

Simmons, Vani Nath; Quinn, Gwendolyn P; Harrell, Paul T; Meltzer, Lauren R; Correa, John B; Unrod, Marina; Brandon, Thomas H

2016-01-01

There has been an exponential increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use, particularly among youth. However, adult use is also rising, and there have been relatively few qualitative studies with adult users to understand their reasons for use and future use intentions. Such information is needed to inform both prevention and cessation approaches. Thirty-one e-cigarette users participated in one of several focus groups assessing the appeal of e-cigarettes as well as comparisons to combustible cigarettes and approved smoking cessation aids. We also obtained perspectives on future use intentions and interest in e-cigarette cessation interventions. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed using the constant comparative method. Participants reported several aspects of e-cigarette appeal as compared to approved cessation treatment options. These included similarities to combustible cigarettes, fewer side effects, and control of e-cigarettes to suit personal preferences. Participants were split on whether they preferred flavors that mimicked or contrasted with their combustible cigarettes (i.e., tobacco vs. alternative flavors, such as candy). Some participants who were unmotivated to quit smoking reported an unanticipated disinterest in continuing use of combustible cigarettes shortly after initiating e-cigarettes. Despite strong interest in reducing nicotine dosage, the majority did not intend to fully discontinue e-cigarettes. Understanding e-cigarette users' perspectives can inform policy and treatment development. Regulatory and policy initiatives will need to balance the appealing characteristics of e-cigarettes with the potential for negative public health outcomes.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: identifying high priority future research needs.

PubMed

Gaynes, Bradley N; Christian, Robert; Saavedra, Lissette M; Wines, Roberta; Jonas, Daniel E; Viswanathan, Meera; Ellis, Alan R; Woodell, Carol; Carey, Timothy S

2014-03-01

With onset often occurring before 6 years of age, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) involves attention problems, impulsivity, overactivity, and sometimes disruptive behavior. Impairment usually persists into adulthood, with an estimated worldwide prevalence in adults of 2.5%. Existing gaps in evidence concerning ADHD hinder decision-making about treatment. This article describes and prioritizes future research needs for ADHD in three areas: treatment effectiveness for at-risk preschoolers; long-term treatment effectiveness; and variability in prevalence, diagnosis, and treatment.Using a recent systematic review concerning ADHD completed by a different evidence-based practice center as a foundation, we worked with a diverse group of 12 stakeholders, who represented researchers, funders, healthcare providers, patients, and families, to identify and prioritize research needs. From an initial list of 29 evidence gaps, we enumerated 8 high-priority research needs: a) accurate, brief standardized diagnosis and assessment; b) comparative effectiveness and safety of pharmacologic treatments for children under 6 years of age; c) comparative effectiveness of different combinations of psychosocial and pharmacologic treatments for children under 6 years of age; d) case identification and measurement of prevalence and outcomes; e) comparative effectiveness of psychosocial treatment alone versus pharmacologic and combination treatments for children under 6 years of age; f) comparative long-term treatment effectiveness for people 6 years of age and older; g) relative efficacy of specific psychosocial program components for children under 6 years of age; and h) identification of person-level effect modifiers for people 6 years of age and older. In this article, we describe these future research needs in detail and discuss study designs that could be used to address them.

An Observational Study of Antibiotic Prescribing Behavior and the Hawthorne Effect

PubMed Central

Mangione-Smith, Rita; Elliott, Marc N; McDonald, Laurie; McGlynn, Elizabeth A

2002-01-01

Objectives To assess whether prospective, observational study procedures, including questionnaires and audio recording, are associated with different patterns of physician diagnostic decision making and antibiotic prescribing. Data Sources/Setting (1) Survey data from a prospective observational study of treatment patterns for children with acute upper respiratory illnesses (10/96–3/97) and (2) retrospective medical record abstraction data of nonobserved encounters for the same problems occurring during (10/96–3/97) and one year after (10/97–3/98) the observational study period. Ten pediatricians in two community practices were studied. Study Design Patterns of diagnoses recorded in the medical record and antibiotics ordered for visits occurring outside of the observational study (same time period and one year later) were compared with the pattern of diagnoses and antibiotics ordered during the observational study. Data Collection/Extraction Methods For the observational study (10/96–2/97), diagnosis and treatment choices were obtained from questionnaires completed by physicians immediately following the visit. For the nonstudy encounters (10/96–3/97 and 10/97–3/98), data were abstracted from medical records one year after the observational study was completed. Principal Findings The proportion of viral cases in which an antibiotic was prescribed was 29 percentage points lower for the observational study compared to the retrospective analysis (p <.05). In one of two study sites, the proportion of cases assigned a bacterial diagnosis was 29 percentage points lower in the observational study period compared to the retrospective study (p <.05). Conclusions Observational study procedures including questionnaires and audio recording can affect antibiotic prescribing behavior. Future observational studies aimed at examining the frequency of inappropriate antibiotic prescribing should measure and adjust for the Hawthorne effect; without such adjustments, the results will likely underestimate the true degree of the problem. Future interventions aimed at decreasing inappropriate antibiotic prescribing should consider “harnessing” the Hawthorne effect through performance feedback to participating physicians. PMID:12546288

Lost Educational Opportunity: Can the First and Third Worlds Inform Each Other and Transfer Solutions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolman, David C.

A comparative study of early school leaving in India, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, and the United States found that in spite of huge cultural and economic differences between these countries, there were common underlying causes of the school dropout problem. Economic need, sociocultural divisions, curricula that were unrelated to future work and…

Growing trees where trees grow best: short-term research sheds light on long-term productivity.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2008-01-01

In 1999, the Fall River Long-Term Site Productivity study began in coastal Washington to investigate how intensive management practices affect soil processes and forest productivity. By comparing conventional harvests to more intensive wood removal treatments, researchers are answering long-standing questions about how residual organic matter influences future growth....

Classrooms as Racialized Spaces: Dynamics of Collaboration, Tension, and Student Attitudes in Urban and Suburban High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nunn, Lisa M.

2011-01-01

This article interrogates the construction of ethnoracial categories in everyday classroom life and how ethnoracial classroom dynamics contribute to larger patterns of inequality in achievement and unequal college futures for minorities. The study compares one urban and two suburban schools. Drawing on observation data from six classes and 57…

Comparative Analysis, Hypercard, and the Future of Social Studies Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jennings, James M.

This research paper seeks to address new theories of learning and instructional practices that will be needed to meet the demands of 21st century education. A brief review of the literature on the topics of constructivism, reflective inquiry, and multicultural education, which form the major elements of a computer-based system called HyperCAP, are…

Field comparison of the installation and cost of placement of epoxy-coated and MMFX 2 steel deck reinforcement : establishing a baseline for future deck monitoring.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

As part of the Innovative Bridge Research and Construction Program (IBRCP), this study was conducted to use the full-scale construction project of the Route 123 Bridge over the Occoquan River in Northern Virginia to identify and compare any differenc...

Cui Bono? On the Relative Merits of Technology-Enhanced Learning and Teaching in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mykhnenko, Vlad

2016-01-01

This article provides evidence from a 4-year longitudinal study on the comparative use of illustrative video podcasts during Economic Geography lectures vis-à-vis traditional educational methods in order to guide pedagogic practice and future research on the relative merits of technology-enhanced learning in higher education. Key benefits derived…

Genome Sequences of Six Wheat-Infecting Fusarium Species Isolates

PubMed Central

Moolhuijzen, Paula M.; Manners, John M.; Wilcox, Stephen A.; Bellgard, Matthew I.

2013-01-01

Fusarium pathogens represent a major constraint to wheat and barley production worldwide. To facilitate future comparative studies of Fusarium species that are pathogenic to wheat, the genome sequences of four Fusarium pseudograminearum isolates, a single Fusarium acuminatum isolate, and an organism from the Fusarium incarnatum-F. equiseti species complex are reported. PMID:24009115

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Rethinking Patterns of Knowledge. Papers in Comparative Studies, Vol. 6, 1988-89.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bjornson, Richard, Ed.; Waldman, Marilyn R., Ed.

This volume presents ten papers by authors from diverse academic disciplines that challenge the acceptance of dominant patterns of knowledge in the present educational and social climate and suggest that our creativity, our capacity to comprehend complex phenomena, and the future well-being of out society depend on our willingness to embrace new…

Psychosocial Stress Predicts Future Symptom Severities in Children and Adolescents with Tourette Syndrome and/or Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Haiqun; Katsovich, Liliya; Ghebremichael, Musie; Findley, Diane B.; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J.; King, Robert A.; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F.

2007-01-01

Background: The goals of this prospective longitudinal study were to monitor levels of psychosocial stress in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared to healthy control subjects and to examine the relationship between measures of psychosocial stress and fluctuations in tic,…

Food Insecurity in Households with Children: Prevalence, Severity, and Household Characteristics. ERS Report Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nord, Mark

2009-01-01

Food security is especially important for children because their nutrition affects not only their current health, but also their future health and well-being. Previous studies that used various data sources suggest that children in food-insecure households face elevated risks of health and development problems, compared with children in otherwise…

Self-Regulation and Moral Orientation among Finnish and Chinese Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niemi, Hannele; He, Jin

A comparative study of value orientations among Finnish and Chinese adolescents was conducted focusing on how secondary school students in these two cultures understand the purpose and meaningfulness of their lives and the value purposes they foresee in the future. The survey took place in the comprehensive schools of suburban towns in Finland and…

Bandwidth compression of multispectral satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habibi, A.

1978-01-01

The results of two studies aimed at developing efficient adaptive and nonadaptive techniques for compressing the bandwidth of multispectral images are summarized. These techniques are evaluated and compared using various optimality criteria including MSE, SNR, and recognition accuracy of the bandwidth compressed images. As an example of future requirements, the bandwidth requirements for the proposed Landsat-D Thematic Mapper are considered.

Evaluations of alternative methods for monitoring and estimating responses of salmon productivity in the North Pacific to future climatic change and other processes: A simulation study

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of the relative influence of climate change, compared to other human activities, on dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations can help management agencies take appropriate management actions. We used empirically based simulation modelling of 48 sockeye...

Mission applications for advanced photovoltaic solar arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; West, John L.; Chave, Robert G.; Mcgee, David P.; Yen, Albert S.

1990-01-01

The suitability of the Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) for future space missions was examined by considering the impact on the spacecraft system in general. The lightweight flexible blanket array system was compared to rigid arrays and a radio-isotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) static power source for a wide range of assumed future earth orbiting and interplanetary mission applications. The study approach was to establish assessment criteria and a rating scheme, identify a reference mission set, perform the power system assessment for each mission, and develop conclusions and recommendations to guide future APSA technology development. The authors discuss the three selected power sources, the assessment criteria and rating definitions, and the reference missions. They present the assessment results in a convenient tabular format. It is concluded that the three power sources examined, APSA, conventional solar arrays, and RTGs, can be considered to complement each other. Each power technology has its own range of preferred applications.

Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

PubMed

Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

2017-04-15

This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperament in Portuguese university students as measured by TEMPS-A: implications for professional choice.

PubMed

Figueira, M Luisa; Caeiro, Lara; Ferro, Ana; Cordeiro, Raul; Duarte, Pedro M; Akiskal, Hagop S; Akiskal, Kareen K

2010-06-01

The structure of temperament displays subaffective traits as attributes of adaptive value. There are few studies on how different professions compare on temperaments. Our aim was to examine the relationship between the choices of Portuguese students in their fields of study, and their respective temperaments. The sample included 1386 students from six different universities (law, engineering, arts, medicine, psychology, and nursing), of both genders (67% female), and ages between 17 and 58 (X + or - SD = 21 + or - 3.4). Law and art students presented a cyclothymic or irritable temperament. Engineering students presented a hyperthymic temperament. Psychology and nursing students presented predominantly depressive and anxious temperaments. Medicine students were least extreme in temperament scores or frequencies. Nursing students came largely from one university located in a Portuguese city (northeast from Lisbon) which could be a potential limitation to be confirmed. Distinct temperamental profiles of students enrolled in different professional fields could be identified in our sample taking into account the presence or absence of excessive temperaments. Future physicians did not present a predominant temperament, future lawyers and artists presented predominantly a cyclothymic or irritable temperament, future engineers presented a hyperthymic temperament and, future psychologists and nurses presented predominantly depressive and anxious temperaments. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prescribed journeys through life: Cultural differences in mental time travel between Middle Easterners and Scandinavians.

PubMed

Ottsen, Christina Lundsgaard; Berntsen, Dorthe

2015-12-01

Mental time travel is the ability to remember past events and imagine future events. Here, 124 Middle Easterners and 128 Scandinavians generated important past and future events. These different societies present a unique opportunity to examine effects of culture. Findings indicate stronger influence of normative schemas and greater use of mental time travel to teach, inform and direct behaviour in the Middle East compared with Scandinavia. The Middle Easterners generated more events that corresponded to their cultural life script and that contained religious words, whereas the Scandinavians reported events with a more positive mood impact. Effects of gender were mainly found in the Middle East. Main effects of time orientation largely replicated recent findings showing that simulation of future and past events are not necessarily parallel processes. In accordance with the notion that future simulations rely on schema-based construction, important future events showed a higher overlap with life script events than past events in both cultures. In general, cross-cultural discrepancies were larger in future compared with past events. Notably, the high focus in the Middle East on sharing future events to give cultural guidance is consistent with the increased adherence to normative scripts found in this culture. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of depression among refugees from Vietnam: a longitudinal study of new arrivals.

PubMed

Hinton, W L; Tiet, Q; Tran, C G; Chesney, M

1997-01-01

The present study examined the impact of prearrival traumatic experiences and sociodemographic characteristics on future depression among Vietnamese and Chinese refugees from Vietnam. This is a longitudinal study of newly arrived refugees from Vietnam undergoing a mandatory health screening. A stratified consecutive sample of ethnic Chinese and ethnic Vietnamese refugees was drawn. The depression subscale of the Indochinese Hopkins symptoms checklist was administered to 114 refugees within the first 6 months after arrival in the United States and 12 to 18 months later. Ethnic Vietnamese reported more prearrival trauma compared with ethnic Chinese. Age was strongly correlated with time 2 depression among ethnic Vietnamese but not among ethnic Chinese. Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that being a veteran, older, unattached, less proficient in English, ethnic Vietnamese, and more depressed at baseline predicted higher depression at follow-up. Although prearrival trauma predicted future depression, other sociodemographic characteristics assumed more importance with time.

Technical and Economic Evaluation of Advanced Air Cargo Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

1978-01-01

The current air cargo environment and the relevance of advanced technology aircraft in enhancing the efficiency of the 1990 air cargo system are discussed. NASA preliminary design studies are shown to indicate significant potential gains in aircraft efficiency and operational economics for future freighter concepts. Required research and technology elements are outlined to develop a better base for evaluating advanced design concepts. Current studies of the market operation are reviewed which will develop design criteria for a future dedicated cargo transport. Design features desirable in an all-freighter design are reviewed. NASA-sponsored studies of large, distributed-load freighters are reviewed and these designs are compared to current wide-body aircraft. These concepts vary in gross takeoff weight from 0.5 Gg (one million lbs.) to 1.5 Gg (three million lbs.) and are found to exhibit economic advantages over conventional design concepts.

Light induced intraspecific variability in response to thermal stress in the hard coral Stylophora pistillata

PubMed Central

Wijgerde, Tim; Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Salles, Joana Falcão; Pen, Ido; Wild, Christian

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that prior exposure of several months to elevated irradiance induces enhanced thermal tolerance in scleractinian corals. While this tolerance has been reported at the species level, individual coral colonies may react differently due to individual variability in thermal tolerance. As thermal anomalies are predicted to become common in the upcoming future, intraspecific variation may be key to the survival of coral populations. In order to study light-history based thermal stress responses on individual colonies, we developed a preliminary microcosm experiment where three randomly chosen, aquacultured colonies of the model coral Stylophora pistillata were exposed to two irradiance treatments (200 and 400 μmol photons m−2 s−1) for 31 days, followed by artificially induced heat stress (∼33.4 °C). We found different responses to occur at both the intraspecific and the intracolonial levels, as indicated by either equal, less severe, delayed, and/or even non-necrotic responses of corals previously exposed to the irradiance of 400 compared to 200 μmol photons m−2 s−1. In addition, all individual colonies revealed light-enhanced calcification. Finally, elevated irradiance resulted in a lower chlorophyll a concentration in one colony compared to the control treatment, and the same colony displayed more rapid bleaching compared to the other ones. Taken together, this study highlights the potential importance of intra-individual variability in physiological responses of scleractinian corals and provides recommendations for improving methodological designs for future studies. PMID:29038747

Reflections of the social environment in chimpanzee memory: applying rational analysis beyond humans.

PubMed

Stevens, Jeffrey R; Marewski, Julian N; Schooler, Lael J; Gilby, Ian C

2016-08-01

In cognitive science, the rational analysis framework allows modelling of how physical and social environments impose information-processing demands onto cognitive systems. In humans, for example, past social contact among individuals predicts their future contact with linear and power functions. These features of the human environment constrain the optimal way to remember information and probably shape how memory records are retained and retrieved. We offer a primer on how biologists can apply rational analysis to study animal behaviour. Using chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes ) as a case study, we modelled 19 years of observational data on their social contact patterns. Much like humans, the frequency of past encounters in chimpanzees linearly predicted future encounters, and the recency of past encounters predicted future encounters with a power function. Consistent with the rational analyses carried out for human memory, these findings suggest that chimpanzee memory performance should reflect those environmental regularities. In re-analysing existing chimpanzee memory data, we found that chimpanzee memory patterns mirrored their social contact patterns. Our findings hint that human and chimpanzee memory systems may have evolved to solve similar information-processing problems. Overall, rational analysis offers novel theoretical and methodological avenues for the comparative study of cognition.

Reflections of the social environment in chimpanzee memory: applying rational analysis beyond humans

PubMed Central

Marewski, Julian N.; Schooler, Lael J.; Gilby, Ian C.

2016-01-01

In cognitive science, the rational analysis framework allows modelling of how physical and social environments impose information-processing demands onto cognitive systems. In humans, for example, past social contact among individuals predicts their future contact with linear and power functions. These features of the human environment constrain the optimal way to remember information and probably shape how memory records are retained and retrieved. We offer a primer on how biologists can apply rational analysis to study animal behaviour. Using chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) as a case study, we modelled 19 years of observational data on their social contact patterns. Much like humans, the frequency of past encounters in chimpanzees linearly predicted future encounters, and the recency of past encounters predicted future encounters with a power function. Consistent with the rational analyses carried out for human memory, these findings suggest that chimpanzee memory performance should reflect those environmental regularities. In re-analysing existing chimpanzee memory data, we found that chimpanzee memory patterns mirrored their social contact patterns. Our findings hint that human and chimpanzee memory systems may have evolved to solve similar information-processing problems. Overall, rational analysis offers novel theoretical and methodological avenues for the comparative study of cognition. PMID:27853606

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Improving the quality of randomized controlled trials in Chinese herbal medicine, part II: control group design.

PubMed

Bian, Zhao-Xiang; Moher, David; Dagenais, Simon; Li, You-Ping; Liu, Liang; Wu, Tai-Xiang; Miao, Jiang-Xia

2006-03-01

To discuss the types of control groups in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM), and to provide suggestions for improving the design of control group in future clinical studies in this therapeutic area. A search of the Cochrane Library was conducted in July 2005 to identify RCTs of CHM, and 66 RCTs with CHM for type 2 diabetes mellitus were obtained as the basis for further analysis. Of 66 RCTs with CHM for type 2 diabetes mellitus, 61 (92.4%) trials had both a treatment group and a control group. Twenty-seven (40.9%) RCTs compared CHM plus conventional drug vs conventional drug, 24 (36.4%) compared CHM vs conventional drug, 5 (7.6%) compared CHM vs placebo, 3 (4.5%) compared CHM plus conventional drug vs conventional drug plus placebo, 3 (4.5%) compared CHM plus conventional drug vs other CHM, 1 (1.5%) compared CHM vs no treatment, 1 (1.5%) compared CHM plus placebo vs conventional drug plus placebo, 1 (1.5%) compared CHM vs CHM plus conventional drug vs conventional drug vs placebo, and 1 (1.5%) compared CHM vs conventional drug vs CHM plus conventional drug. A variety of control groups were used in RCTs of CHM for type 2 diabetes mellitus, including placebo, active, and no treatment control groups. Justification for selecting particular types of control groups were not provided in the trials reviewed in this study. Different control groups may be appropriate according to the study objectives, and several factors should be considered prior to selecting control groups in future RCTs of CHM. (1) Investigators of CHM who design clinical trials should understand the rationale for selecting different types of control groups; (2) Control groups for RCTs should be selected according to study objectives; (3) Active control groups should select interventions for comparisons that have the strongest evidence of efficacy and prescribe them as recommended; (4) Placebo control groups should select a placebo that mimics the physical characteristics of test intervention as closely as possible and is completely inert; (5) No treatment control groups should only be used when withholding treatment is ethical and objectives outcomes will not be subject to bias due to absent blinding; (6) Crossover control groups may be appropriate in chronic and stable conditions.

A Sensitivity Study on the Effectiveness of Active Debris Removal in LEO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J. C.; Johnson, Nicholas L.

2007-01-01

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but may be insufficient to stabilize the environment. The nature of the growth, in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, is further demonstrated by a recent study where no future space launches were conducted in the environment projection simulations. The results indicate that, even with no new launches, the LEO debris population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Therefore, to better limit the growth of future debris population to protect the environment, remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. A removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed to rank objects at the beginning of each projection year. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 2 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed, and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.

Comparing different methods to model scenarios of future glacier change for the entire Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linsbauer, A.; Paul, F.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

There is general agreement that observed climate change already has strong impacts on the cryosphere. The rapid shrinkage of glaciers during the past two decades as observed in many mountain ranges globally and in particular in the Alps, are impressive confirmations of a changed climate. With the expected future temperature increase glacier shrinkage will likely further accelerate and their role as an important water resource more and more diminish. To determine the future contribution of glaciers to run-off with hydrological models, the change in glacier area and/or volume must be considered. As these models operate at regional scales, simplified approaches to model the future development of all glaciers in a mountain range need to be applied. In this study we have compared different simplified approaches to model the area and volume evolution of all glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century according to given climate change scenarios. One approach is based on an upward shift of the ELA (by 150 m per degree temperature increase) and the assumption that the glacier extent will shrink until the smaller accumulation area covers again 60% of the total glacier area. A second approach is based on observed elevation changes between 1985 and 2000 as derived from DEM differencing for all glaciers in Switzerland. With a related elevation-dependent parameterization of glacier thickness change and a modelled glacier thickness distribution, the 15-year trends in observed thickness loss are extrapolated into the future with glacier area loss taking place when thickness becomes zero. The models show an overall glacier area reduction between 60-80% until 2100 with some ice remaining at the highest elevations. However, compared to the ongoing temperature increase and considering that several reinforcement feedbacks (albedo lowering, lake formation) are not accounted for, the real area loss might even be stronger. Uncertainties in the modelled glacier thickness have only a small influence on the final area loss, but influence the temporal evolution of the loss. In particular the largest valley glaciers will suffer from a strong volume loss, as large parts of their beds have a small inclination and are thus located at low elevations.

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Bony, S.; Braconnot, P.

2015-12-01

Most climate studies characterize the future climate change by considering the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. It emphasizes an increase of future precipitation changes with global warming. Here we use an alternative approach that considers rate of change indicators related to precipitation using projections of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The rate is defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. This approach can be relevant to impacts affecting upcoming generations, and to their continuous adaptation towards a changing target. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), moistening and drying rates strongly increase at the global scale. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more and more regions exhibit substantial rates. These regions are modified over time due to spatial variability of precipitation. However, we show that they tend to become more geographically stationary through the century, leading to persisting trends at several places over the globe. Whilst global warming is accelerating, this spatial stabilization is due to the decreasing relative influence of global circulation in precipitation changes compared to thermodynamic processes. In specific regions, the combination of intensification and persistence of such substantial rates should be considered in the framework of future impact studies (i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic). These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies (RCP2.6) were quickly implemented.