Dynamics of contraceptive use in India: apprehension versus future intention among non-users and traditional method users.

PubMed

Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Unisa, Sayeed

2013-06-01

This study examines the reasons for not using any method of contraception as well as reasons for not using modern methods of contraception, and factors associated with the future intention to use different types of contraceptives in India and its selected states, namely Uttar Pradesh, Assam and West Bengal. Data from the third wave of District Level Household and Facility Survey, 2007-08 were used. Bivariate as well as logistic regression analyses were performed to fulfill the study objective. Postpartum amenorrhea and breastfeeding practices were reported as the foremost causes for not using any method of contraception. Opposition to use, health concerns and fear of side effects were reported to be major hurdles in the way of using modern methods of contraception. Results from logistic regression suggest considerable variation in explaining the factors associated with future intention to use contraceptives. Promotion of health education addressing the advantages of contraceptive methods and eliminating apprehension about the use of these methods through effective communication by community level workers is the need of the hour. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) Ada performance study report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booth, Eric W.; Stark, Michael E.

1991-01-01

The goals of the Ada Performance Study are described. The methods used are explained. Guidelines for future Ada development efforts are given. The goals and scope of the study are detailed, and the background of Ada development in the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) is presented. The organization and overall purpose of each test are discussed. The purpose, methods, and results of each test and analyses of these results are given. Guidelines for future development efforts based on the analysis of results from this study are provided. The approach used on the performance tests is discussed.

Study of Mothers' Anxieties Related to Their Children's Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ilgar, Sengul

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to study anxieties of mothers related to their children's future. Qualitative method was used in order to study anxieties of mothers from different socio-economic levels. Sample of the study participants are 129 mothers living in Istanbul. 32 of those mothers are from upper socio-economic level, 57, from middle…

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies.

PubMed

Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

2016-03-10

Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. People are not needed in this study. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. The methodological fundamentals of formal 3-20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

A simple technique for obtaining future climate data inputs for natural resource models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Those conducting impact studies using natural resource models need to be able to quickly and easily obtain downscaled future climate data from multiple models, scenarios, and timescales for multiple locations. This paper describes a method of quickly obtaining future climate data over a wide range o...

[Theoretical and methodological bases for formation of future drivers 'readiness to application of physical-rehabilitation technologies].

PubMed

Yemets, Anatoliy V; Donchenko, Viktoriya I; Scrinick, Eugenia O

2018-01-01

Introduction: Experimental work is aimed at introducing theoretical and methodological foundations for the professional training of the future doctor. The aim: Identify the dynamics of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the readiness of a specialist in medicine. Materials and methods: The article presents the course and results of the experimental work of the conditions of forming the readiness of future specialists in medicine. Results: Our methodical bases for studying the disciplines of the general practice and specialized professional stage of experimental training of future physicians have been worked out. Conclusions: It is developed taking into account the peculiarities of future physician training of materials for various stages of experimental implementation in the educational process of higher medical educational institutions.

Future Directions for Business Education: A Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kesten, Cyril A.; Lambrecht, Judith J.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to synthesize perceptions from the field about current issues and to propose future directions for the field of business education. Method: A modified three-stage Delphi study was carried out with business educators who attended national conferences and/or belonged to national professional organizations.…

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

Development and applications of single particle orientation and rotational tracking in dynamic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Kuangcai

The goal of this study is to help with future data analysis and experiment designs in rotational dynamics research using DIC-based SPORT technique. Most of the current studies using DIC-based SPORT techniques are technical demonstrations. Understanding the mechanisms behind the observed rotational behaviors of the imaging probes should be the focus of the future SPORT studies. More efforts are still needed in the development of new imaging probes, particle tracking methods, instrumentations, and advanced data analysis methods to further extend the potential of DIC-based SPORT technique.

New methods for estimating parameters of weibull functions to characterize future diameter distributions in forest stands

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

2016-12-01

The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743

Methodology in Training Future Technology and Engineering Teachers in the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Androshchuk, Iryna; Androshchuk, Ihor

2017-01-01

In the article, the defined problem has been justified and the significance of studying foreign experience in training future technology and engineering teachers in the USA has been determined. Particular attention has been paid to explanation of methods and forms of organization of future technology and engineering teachers' training in the USA.…

Innovation in Technology-Enhanced Assessment in the UK and the USA: Future Scenarios and Critical Considerations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perrotta, Carlo

2014-01-01

This paper uses methods derived from the field of futures studies to explore the future of technology-enhanced assessment. Drawing on interviews and consultation activities with experts, the paper aims to discuss the conditions that can impede or foster "innovation" in assessment and education more broadly. Through a review of relevant…

The Process of Pedagogical Culture Formation in the Future Social Worker

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minzhanov, Nurlan A.; Ertysbaeva, Gaukhar N.

2016-01-01

The paper is aimed at studying the features of pedagogical culture formation in future social workers and developing methods to improve the professional and pedagogical preparation quality of students in the "Social work" specialty. In the study, a survey of students in the "Social work" specialty (n = 400), and a standardized…

Economic study of future aircraft fuels (1970-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1972-01-01

Future aircraft fuels are evaluated in terms of fuel resource availability and pricing, processing methods, and economic projections over the period 1970-2000. Liquefied hydrogen, methane and propane are examined as potential turbine engine aircraft fuels relative to current JP fuel.

Aerodynamic optimization studies on advanced architecture computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chawla, Kalpana

1995-01-01

The approach to carrying out multi-discipline aerospace design studies in the future, especially in massively parallel computing environments, comprises of choosing (1) suitable solvers to compute solutions to equations characterizing a discipline, and (2) efficient optimization methods. In addition, for aerodynamic optimization problems, (3) smart methodologies must be selected to modify the surface shape. In this research effort, a 'direct' optimization method is implemented on the Cray C-90 to improve aerodynamic design. It is coupled with an existing implicit Navier-Stokes solver, OVERFLOW, to compute flow solutions. The optimization method is chosen such that it can accomodate multi-discipline optimization in future computations. In the work , however, only single discipline aerodynamic optimization will be included.

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

Capillary Structures for Exploration Life Support (Capillary Structures)

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-07-10

iss052e013081 (7/10/2017) --- The Capillary Structures for Exploration Life Support (Capillary Structures) investigation studies a new method using structures of specific shapes to manage fluid and gas mixtures. The investigation studies water recycling and carbon dioxide removal, benefiting future efforts to design lightweight, more reliable life support systems for future space missions.

Associations Among Individuals’ Perceptions of Future Time, Individual Resources, and Subjective Well-Being in Old Age

PubMed Central

Hoppmann, Christiane A.; Infurna, Frank J.; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2015-01-01

Objectives Perceptions of future time are of key interest to aging research because of their implications for subjective well-being. Interestingly, perceptions about future time are only moderately associated with age, pointing to a vast heterogeneity in future time perceptions among older adults. We examine associations between future time perceptions, age, and subjective well-being across two studies, including moderations by individual resources. Method Using data from the Berlin Aging Study (N = 516; Mage = 85 years), we link one operationalization (subjective nearness to death) and age to subjective well-being. Using Health and Retirement Study data (N = 2,596; Mage = 77 years), we examine associations of another future time perception indicator (subjective future life expectancy) and age with subjective well-being. Results Consistent across studies, perceptions of limited time left were associated with poorer subjective well-being (lower life satisfaction and positive affect; more negative affect and depressive symptoms). Importantly, individual resources moderated future time perception–subjective well-being associations with those of better health exhibiting reduced future time perception–subjective well-being associations. Discussion We discuss our findings in the context of the Model of Strength and Vulnerability Integration. PMID:26437862

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

Reader's Block: A Systematic Review of Barriers to Adoption, Access and Use in E-Book User Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Girard, Adam

2014-01-01

Introduction: This review of barriers to e-book use systematically identifies obstacles to engaging reading experiences. Through the use of an analytical framework, the users being studied, study setting, and methods used in previous work are described in order to identify promising areas for future research. Method: The method used is a…

Reserve growth of oil and gas fields—Investigations and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, Troy A.

2013-01-01

The reserve growth of fields has been a topic for ongoing discussion for over half a century and will continue to be studied well into the future. This is due to the expected size of the volumetric contribution of reserve growth to the future supply of oil and natural gas. Understanding past methods of estimating future volumes based on the data assembly methods that have been used can lead to a better understanding of their applicability. The statistical nature of past methods and the (1) possible high level of dependency on a limited number of fields, (2) assumption of an age-based correlation with effective reserve growth, and (3) assumption of long-lived and more common than not reserve growth, may be improved by employing a more geologically based approach.

NASA Lewis Research Center Futuring Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boroush, Mark; Stover, John; Thomas, Charles

1987-01-01

On October 21 and 22, 1986, the Futures Group ran a two-day Futuring Workshop on the premises of NASA Lewis Research Center. The workshop had four main goals: to acquaint participants with the general history of technology forecasting; to familiarize participants with the range of forecasting methodologies; to acquaint participants with the range of applicability, strengths, and limitations of each method; and to offer participants some hands-on experience by working through both judgmental and quantitative case studies. Among the topics addressed during this workshop were: information sources; judgmental techniques; quantitative techniques; merger of judgment with quantitative measurement; data collection methods; and dealing with uncertainty.

Analysis of Fluctuating Friction Version in Sheet Metallic Designing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambarayil Joy, Jithin; Jung, Dong Won

2018-02-01

Conservative Coulomb method indicates steady constant of rub in thin metal panel making that appears or feels close to the real thing. It contributes to describing attainable future event too high shear pressure in making ahead in the position of high R-value steel (AHRS). The study is conducted by pretend the making and spring back of a specific panel to understand the characteristic of the stamping procedure. Corresponding of the describe probable future results with (i) physical force-dependent changeable rub method, (ii) perpetual rub method, and the conclusion of exploratory facts point out a significant upgrading of spring back forecast with the prospective method.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied including: qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify land use/cover change processes, their driving forces and possible consequences, and final scenario generation; and geospatial methods such as GIS, geostatistics and environmental modeling in an environment for geoprocessing objects (Dinamica EGO) for spatial allocation of these scenarios. The methods were applied in the Italian Alps and the Romanian Carpathians. Both are mountainous areas, however they differ in terms of past and most likely future socio-economic development, and therefore consequent land use/cover changes. Whereas we focused on urban expansion due to tourism development in the Alps, we focused on possible deforestation trajectories in the Carpathians. In both areas, the recognized most significant driving forces were either not covered by accessible data, or were characterized as intangible. With the proposed framework we were able to generate futures scenarios despite these shortcomings, and enabling the transferability of the method.

ROLE OF YOGA IN THE TREATMENT OF NEUROTIC DISORDERS: CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

PubMed Central

Grover, Poonam; Varma, V.K.; Pershad, D.; Verma, S.K.

1994-01-01

A large number of studies have consistently demonstrated the potential of yoga, not only in the treatment of psychiatric and psychosomatic disorder but also in promoting positive physical and mental health. This paper reviews various studies on the treatment of neurosis with techniques derived from yoga. A few lacunae have been identified and possible directions for future research are outlined. It is hoped that research along these lines will develop a standardized method of yoga therapy which can be utilized and integrated within the existing methods of treatment of neurotic disorders. PMID:21743694

Trajectories of Preparation for Future Care among First-Degree Relatives of Alzheimer's Disease Patients: An Ancillary Study of ADAPT

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mak, Wingyun; Sorensen, Silvia

2012-01-01

Purpose: This study examines the longitudinal patterns of Preparation for Future Care (PFC), defined as Awareness, Avoidance, Gathering Information, Decision Making, and Concrete Plans, in first-degree relatives of people with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Design and Methods: Eight time points across 6.5 years from a subsample of adults aged 70 years…

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

SSMA Science Reviewers' Forecasts for the Future of Science Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jinks, Jerry; Hoffer, Terry

1989-01-01

Described is a study which was conducted as an exploratory assessment of science reviewers' perceptions for the future of science education. Arrives at interpretations for identified categories of computers and high technology, science curriculum, teacher education, training, certification, standards, teaching methods, and materials. (RT)

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

2017-02-01

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

The Application of the Microgenetic Method to Studies of Learning in Science Education: Characteristics of Published Studies, Methodological Issues and Recommendations for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Richard; Taber, Keith S.

2017-01-01

This paper examines the role of the microgenetic method in science education. The microgenetic method is a technique for exploring the progression of learning in detail through repeated, high-frequency observations of a learner's "performance" in some activity. Existing microgenetic studies in science education are analysed. This leads…

Examining the Stationarity Assumption for Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections of Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wootten, A.; Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Mcpherson, R. A.

2017-12-01

Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) approaches attempt to refine global climate model (GCM) information via statistical relationships between observations and GCM simulations. The aim of such downscaling efforts is to create added-value climate projections by adding finer spatial detail and reducing biases. The results of statistical downscaling exercises are often used in impact assessments under the assumption that past performance provides an indicator of future results. Given prior research describing the danger of this assumption with regards to temperature, this study expands the perfect model experimental design from previous case studies to test the stationarity assumption with respect to precipitation. Assuming stationarity implies the performance of ESD methods are similar between the future projections and historical training. Case study results from four quantile-mapping based ESD methods demonstrate violations of the stationarity assumption for both central tendency and extremes of precipitation. These violations vary geographically and seasonally. For the four ESD methods tested the greatest challenges for downscaling of daily total precipitation projections occur in regions with limited precipitation and for extremes of precipitation along Southeast coastal regions. We conclude with a discussion of future expansion of the perfect model experimental design and the implications for improving ESD methods and providing guidance on the use of ESD techniques for impact assessments and decision-support.

Developing a Spanish for Health Professions Course: A Preliminary Mixed-Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altstaedter, Laura Levi

2017-01-01

The mixed-methods pilot study described in this article traces the development of a Spanish for Specific Purposes: Health Professions course that was designed to help future health care professionals develop their linguistic proficiency and intercultural abilities. The study included nursing, medical, and dental students and was conducted at a…

Exploring Knowledge Exchange between Senior and Future Leaders: A Grounded-Theory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzaga, Stephanie Young

2009-01-01

A grounded theory study examined senior leaders methods of knowledge sharing with junior leaders in a small commercial mortgage company. The study was designed to develop an emergent theory to explain the cultural elements that influenced the methods leaders used to transfer knowledge to junior people. The study identified a systemic value of…

Does Parent-Child Interaction Therapy Reduce Future Physical Abuse? A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Stephanie C.; Kim, Johnny S.; Tripodi, Stephen J.; Brown, Samantha M.; Gowdy, Grace

2016-01-01

Objective: To use meta-analytic techniques to evaluating the effectiveness of parent-child interaction therapy (PCIT) at reducing future physical abuse among physically abusive families. Methods: A systematic search identified six eligible studies. Outcomes of interest were physical abuse recurrence, child abuse potential, and parenting stress.…

Expert Perspectives on the Future of Physical Education in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lorusso, Jenna R.; Richards, K. Andrew R.

2018-01-01

Despite physical education teacher education/physical education sport pedagogy's (PETE/PESP's) significant strides in the past century, there are concerns about its future. Grounded in participatory research, and through an interview-Delphi method, this study purposefully sampled five male PETE/PESP scholars' expert critiques of current threats,…

Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntyre, Chuck

2004-01-01

Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

Effects of future space vehicle operations on a single day in the National Airspace System : a fast-time computer simulation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

This document describes the objectives, methods, analyses, and results of a study used to quantify the effects of future space operations : on the National Airspace System (NAS), and to demonstrate the possible benefits of one proposed strategy to mi...

Does experience of the 'occult' predict use of complementary medicine? Experience of, and beliefs about, both complementary medicine and ways of telling the future.

PubMed

Furnham, A

2000-12-01

This study looked at the relationship between ratings of the perceived effectiveness of 24 methods for telling the future, 39 complementary therapies (CM) and 12 specific attitude statements about science and medicine. A total of 159 participants took part. The results showed that the participants were deeply sceptical of the effectiveness of the methods for telling the future which factored into meaningful and interpretable factors. Participants were much more positive about particular, but not all, specialties of complementary medicine (CM). These also factored into a meaningful factor structure. Finally, the 12 attitude to science/medicine statements revealed four factors: scepticism of medicine; the importance of psychological factors; patient protection; and the importance of scientific evaluation. Regressional analysis showed that belief in the total effectiveness of different ways of predicting the future was best predicted by beliefs in the effectiveness of the CM therapies. Although interest in the occult was associated with interest in CM, participants were able to distinguish between the two, and displayed scepticism about the effectiveness of methods of predicting the future and some CM therapies. Copyright 2000 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

Saving in cycles: how to get people to save more money.

PubMed

Tam, Leona; Dholakia, Utpal

2014-02-01

Low personal savings rates are an important social issue in the United States. We propose and test one particular method to get people to save more money that is based on the cyclical time orientation. In contrast to conventional, popular methods that encourage individuals to ignore past mistakes, focus on the future, and set goals to save money, our proposed method frames the savings task in cyclical terms, emphasizing the present. Across the studies, individuals who used our proposed cyclical savings method, compared with individuals who used a linear savings method, provided an average of 74% higher savings estimates and saved an average of 78% more money. We also found that the cyclical savings method was more efficacious because it increased implementation planning and lowered future optimism regarding saving money.

24 CFR 291.200 - Future REO acquisition method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Future REO acquisition method. 291.200 Section 291.200 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban... Sales Procedures § 291.200 Future REO acquisition method. (a) Under this method of property disposition...

24 CFR 291.200 - Future REO acquisition method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Future REO acquisition method. 291.200 Section 291.200 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban... Sales Procedures § 291.200 Future REO acquisition method. (a) Under this method of property disposition...

Apollo/Skylab suit program-management systems study, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcniff, M.

1974-01-01

A management systems study for future spacesuit programs was conducted to assess past suit program requirements and management systems in addition to new and modified systems in order to identify the most cost effective methods for use during future spacesuit programs. The effort and its findings concerned the development and production of all hardware ranging from crew protective gear to total launch vehicles.

Sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian interglacial: Review of previous work with focus on the surface mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plach, Andreas; Hestnes Nisancioglu, Kerim

2016-04-01

The contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to the global sea level rise during the Eemian interglacial (about 125,000 year ago) was the focus of many studies in the past. A main reason for the interest in this period is the considerable warmer climate during the Eemian which is often seen as an equivalent for possible future climate conditions. Simulated sea level rise during the Eemian can therefore be used to better understand a possible future sea level rise. The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) gives an overview of several studies and discusses the possible implications for a future sea level rise. The report also reveals the big differences between these studies in terms of simulated GIS extent and corresponding sea level rise. The present study gives a more exhaustive review of previous work discussing sea level rise from the GIS during the Eemian interglacial. The smallest extents of the GIS simulated by various authors are shown and summarized. A focus is thereby given to the methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. A hypothesis of the present work is that the varying results of the previous studies can largely be explained due to the various methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. In addition, as a first step for future work, the surface mass balance of the GIS for a proxy-data derived forcing ("index method") and a direct forcing with a General Circulation Model (GCM) are shown and discussed.

Review of numerical methods for simulation of the aortic root: Present and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Hossein; Cartier, Raymond; Mongrain, Rosaire

2016-05-01

Heart valvular disease is still one of the main causes of mortality and morbidity in develop countries. Numerical modeling has gained considerable attention in studying hemodynamic conditions associated with valve abnormalities. Simulating the large displacement of the valve in the course of the cardiac cycle needs a well-suited numerical method to capture the natural biomechanical phenomena which happens in the valve. The paper aims to review the principal progress of the numerical approaches for studying the hemodynamic of the aortic valve. In addition, the future directions of the current approaches as well as their potential clinical applications are discussed.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

Verification of NASA Emergent Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher; Vanderbilt, Amy K. C. S.; Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Hinchey, Mike

2004-01-01

NASA is studying advanced technologies for a future robotic exploration mission to the asteroid belt. This mission, the prospective ANTS (Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm) mission, will comprise of 1,000 autonomous robotic agents designed to cooperate in asteroid exploration. The emergent properties of swarm type missions make them powerful, but at the same time are more difficult to design and assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. We are currently investigating formal methods and techniques for verification and validation of future swarm-based missions. The advantage of using formal methods is their ability to mathematically assure the behavior of a swarm, emergent or otherwise. The ANT mission is being used as an example and case study for swarm-based missions for which to experiment and test current formal methods with intelligent swam. Using the ANTS mission, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring swarm behavior.

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Choi, Hayoung; Kim, Ho

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO 2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO 2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Independence among Future Primary School Teachers by Applying Interactive Learning Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rotova, Natalia Alexandrovna

2018-01-01

The necessity to develop independence among future primary school teachers during the process of studying in higher education institutions is substantiated. The essentials of independence notion are disclosed as efforts of students aimed at reaching the goals single-handedly. The results of the ascertaining experiment on defining the level of…

Occupational Outlets for Middle Level Training. What Is the Future of Middle Level Training?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Paul; Cesnich, Janine

This project intended to determine whether a middle-level employment base existed in manufacturing and service industries in South Australia and to examine current trends and future directions of middle-level (paraprofessional) vocational training. The study used the following methods: literature review; labor market analysis; surveys of…

A Programme for Future Audit Professionals: Using Action Research to Nurture Student Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Peursem, Karen; Samujh, R. Helen; Nath, Nirmala

2016-01-01

Professionals require decision-making skills as well as technical knowledge. One might assume that their university education prepares them for this role yet, and least for future audit professionals, traditional text--and lecture--methods dominate teaching practice. This Participation Action Research study develops with auditing students a…

Leveraging social and digital media for participant recruitment: A review of methods from the Bayley Short Form Formative Study.

PubMed

Burke-Garcia, Amelia; Mathew, Sunitha

2017-06-01

Social media is increasingly being used in research, including recruitment. For the Bayley Short Form Formative Study, which was conducted under the the National Children's Study, traditional methods of recruitment proved to be ineffective. Therefore, digital media were identified as potential channels for recruitment. Results included successful recruitment of over 1800 infant and toddler participants to the Study. This paper outlines the methods, results, and future research opportunities.

Identifying Advanced Technologies for Education's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Gwendolyn B.; Yin, Robert K.

A study to determine how three advanced technologies might be applied to the needs of special education students helped inspire the development of a new method for identifying such applications. This new method, named the "Hybrid Approach," combines features of the two traditional methods: technology-push and demand-pull. Technology-push involves…

The Acquisition of Mathematics Pedagogical Content Knowledge in University Mathematics Education Courses: Results of a Mixed Methods Study on the Effectiveness of Teacher Education in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchholtz, Nils Frederik

2017-01-01

This paper reports on a longitudinal mixed methods evaluation study on the acquisition and development of mathematical pedagogical content knowledge (MPCK) of future teachers at several German universities. The study is a German supplementary study to the international comparative TEDS-M 2008 study. Besides the pedagogical content knowledge that…

Methods of feminist family therapy supervision.

PubMed

Prouty, A M; Thomas, V; Johnson, S; Long, J K

2001-01-01

Although feminist family therapy has been studied and practiced for more than 20 years, writing about feminist supervision in family therapy has been limited. Three supervision methods emerged from a qualitative study of the experiences of feminist family therapy supervisors and the therapists they supervised: The supervision contract, collaborative methods, and hierarchical methods. In addition to a description of the participants' experiences of these methods, we discuss their fit with previous theoretical descriptions of feminist supervision and offer suggestions for future research.

24 CFR 291.200 - Future REO acquisition method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

...), which shall provide for the right and obligation of the transferor(s) to acquire a future quantity of... Development (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR HOUSING-FEDERAL HOUSING COMMISSIONER, DEPARTMENT OF... Sales Procedures § 291.200 Future REO acquisition method. (a) Under this method of property disposition...

24 CFR 291.200 - Future REO acquisition method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

...), which shall provide for the right and obligation of the transferor(s) to acquire a future quantity of... Development (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR HOUSING-FEDERAL HOUSING COMMISSIONER, DEPARTMENT OF... Sales Procedures § 291.200 Future REO acquisition method. (a) Under this method of property disposition...

24 CFR 291.200 - Future REO acquisition method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

...), which shall provide for the right and obligation of the transferor(s) to acquire a future quantity of... Development (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR HOUSING-FEDERAL HOUSING COMMISSIONER, DEPARTMENT OF... Sales Procedures § 291.200 Future REO acquisition method. (a) Under this method of property disposition...

Thermal Diffusivity and Conductivity in Ceramic Matrix Fiber Composite Materials - Literature Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R.G. Quinn

A technical literature review was conducted to gain an understanding of the state of the art method, problems, results, and future of thermal diffusivity/conductivity of matrix-fiber composites for high temperature applications. This paper summarizes the results of test method development and theory. Results from testing on various sample types are discussed with concentration on the anisotropic characteristics of matrix-fiber composites, barriers to heat flow, and notable microstructure observations. The conclusion presents some observations from the technical literature, drawbacks of current information and discusses potential needs for future testing.

Marine Bioacoustics: Soundtracks the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

on opportunities to investigate passive acoustic methods for studying humpback whale ecology. During summer courses, we provide students 1.) with a...to demosnstrate methods to the students. In the laboratory, students were taught how to loaclize and track vocalizing humpback whales with data

Development of Advanced Technologies to Reduce Design, Fabrication and Construction Costs for Future Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiNunzio, Camillo A.; Gupta, Abhinav; Golay, Michael

2002-11-30

This report presents a summation of the third and final year of a three-year investigation into methods and technologies for substantially reducing the capital costs and total schedule for future nuclear plants. In addition, this is the final technical report for the three-year period of studies.

Tolerating Uncertainty: Perceptions of the Future for Ageing Parent Carers and Their Adult Children with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pryce, Laura; Tweed, Alison; Hilton, Amanda; Priest, Helena M.

2017-01-01

Background: Improved life expectancy means that more adults with intellectual disabilities are now living with ageing parents. This study explored older families' perceptions of the future. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine older parents and three adults with intellectual disabilities and analysed to produce an…

The Meaning of the Future for the Oldest Old

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nilsson, Margareta; Sarvimaki, Anneli; Ekman, Sirkka-Liisa

2003-01-01

The aim of the study was to highlight the oldest old people's view of their future from a perspective of philosophy of life. Data was collected by means of life story interviews with 15 persons. The analysis was performed by utilizing a phenomenological hermeneutic method and the interpretation was guided by the conceptual framework of philosophy…

Engaging communities and climate change futures with Multi-Scale, Iterative Scenario Building (MISB) in the western United States

Treesearch

Daniel Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams; Cory Cleveland; Lisa Eby; Solomon Dobrowski; Erin Towler

2016-01-01

Current projections of future climate change foretell potentially transformative ecological changes that threaten communities globally. Using two case studies from the United States Intermountain West, this article highlights the ways in which a better articulation between theory and methods in research design can generate proactive applied tools that enable...

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-12-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Research Priorities for Studies Linking Intake of Low-Calorie Sweeteners and Potentially Related Health Outcomes

PubMed Central

Bright, Oliver-John M; Wang, Ding Ding; Shams-White, Marissa; Bleich, Sara N; Foreyt, John; Franz, Marion; Johnson, Guy; Manning, Beth Trickett; Mattes, Rick; Pi-Sunyer, Xavier; Schneeman, Barbara; Parrott, James Scott; Steffen, Dan; Sylvetsky, Allison; Ziegler, Paula

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: In a world of finite research funding, efforts to prioritize future research topics are increasingly necessary. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify and prioritize the direction of future research in the broad area of low-calorie sweetener (LCS) intake and potentially related health outcomes by using a novel method that incorporates evidence mapping in the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Future Research Needs (FRN) process. Methods: A diverse expert stakeholder panel was convened and engaged to identify research gaps and prioritize future research needs. An independent research team hosted a number of interactive webinars and elicited feedback through surveys and individual interviews with the stakeholder panel, which included policymakers, lay audience members, health providers, a research funder, individuals with food industry experience, and researchers of several different specialties. Results: The stakeholder panel generated and ranked a list of 18 FRN questions across 5 broad research areas. Overall, stakeholder panel members unanimously agreed that the research questions that will have the largest public health impact are those that address outcomes related to body weight, appetite, and dietary intake. Although the LCSs included in this FRN project have all been Generally Recognized as Safe by the FDA or approved as food additives, the recurrent concerns and confusions with regard to the “safety” of LCSs by consumers underscore the importance of communicating the science to the general public. Conclusion: Our project provides evidence that engaging a diverse expert stakeholder panel is an effective method of translating gaps in nutrition research into prioritized areas of future research.

Working Toward the Very Low Energy Consumption Building of the Future |

Science.gov Websites

systems engineering methods that have transformed other industries, including the aircraft and automobile Merced and United Technologies are studying the use of sensors and occupancy estimating methods to , occupancy dynamics models, and energy control methods. The team will test whether this technology can

Quantitative Research Methods in Chaos and Complexity: From Probability to Post Hoc Regression Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilstrap, Donald L.

2013-01-01

In addition to qualitative methods presented in chaos and complexity theories in educational research, this article addresses quantitative methods that may show potential for future research studies. Although much in the social and behavioral sciences literature has focused on computer simulations, this article explores current chaos and…

Comparison of Boiling and Robotics Automation Method in DNA Extraction for Metagenomic Sequencing of Human Oral Microbes.

PubMed

Yamagishi, Junya; Sato, Yukuto; Shinozaki, Natsuko; Ye, Bin; Tsuboi, Akito; Nagasaki, Masao; Yamashita, Riu

2016-01-01

The rapid improvement of next-generation sequencing performance now enables us to analyze huge sample sets with more than ten thousand specimens. However, DNA extraction can still be a limiting step in such metagenomic approaches. In this study, we analyzed human oral microbes to compare the performance of three DNA extraction methods: PowerSoil (a method widely used in this field), QIAsymphony (a robotics method), and a simple boiling method. Dental plaque was initially collected from three volunteers in the pilot study and then expanded to 12 volunteers in the follow-up study. Bacterial flora was estimated by sequencing the V4 region of 16S rRNA following species-level profiling. Our results indicate that the efficiency of PowerSoil and QIAsymphony was comparable to the boiling method. Therefore, the boiling method may be a promising alternative because of its simplicity, cost effectiveness, and short handling time. Moreover, this method was reliable for estimating bacterial species and could be used in the future to examine the correlation between oral flora and health status. Despite this, differences in the efficiency of DNA extraction for various bacterial species were observed among the three methods. Based on these findings, there is no "gold standard" for DNA extraction. In future, we suggest that the DNA extraction method should be selected on a case-by-case basis considering the aims and specimens of the study.

Empirical Examinations of Modifications and Adaptations to Evidence-Based Psychotherapies: Methodologies, Impact, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Stirman, Shannon Wiltsey; Gamarra, Jennifer; Bartlett, Brooke; Calloway, Amber; Gutner, Cassidy

2017-12-01

This review describes methods used to examine the modifications and adaptations to evidence-based psychological treatments (EBPTs), assesses what is known about the impact of modifications and adaptations to EBPTs, and makes recommendations for future research and clinical care. One hundred eight primary studies and three meta-analyses were identified. All studies examined planned adaptations, and many simultaneously investigated multiple types of adaptations. With the exception of studies on adding or removing specific EBPT elements, few studies compared adapted EBPTs to the original protocols. There was little evidence that adaptations in the studies were detrimental, but there was also limited consistent evidence that adapted protocols outperformed the original protocols, with the exception of adding components to EBPTs. Implications for EBPT delivery and future research are discussed.

Defining the methodological challenges and opportunities for an effective science of sociotechnical systems and safety.

PubMed

Waterson, Patrick; Robertson, Michelle M; Cooke, Nancy J; Militello, Laura; Roth, Emilie; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

An important part of the application of sociotechnical systems theory (STS) is the development of methods, tools and techniques to assess human factors and ergonomics workplace requirements. We focus in this paper on describing and evaluating current STS methods for workplace safety, as well as outlining a set of six case studies covering the application of these methods to a range of safety contexts. We also describe an evaluation of the methods in terms of ratings of their ability to address a set of theoretical and practical questions (e.g. the degree to which methods capture static/dynamic aspects of tasks and interactions between system levels). The outcomes from the evaluation highlight a set of gaps relating to the coverage and applicability of current methods for STS and safety (e.g. coverage of external influences on system functioning; method usability). The final sections of the paper describe a set of future challenges, as well as some practical suggestions for tackling these. We provide an up-to-date review of STS methods, a set of case studies illustrating their use and an evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses. The paper concludes with a 'roadmap' for future work.

[Methods of brain stimulation based on weak electric current--future tool for the clinician?].

PubMed

Kotilainen, Tuukka; Lehto, Soili M

2016-01-01

Methods of brain stimulation based on a weak electric current are non-invasive neuromodulation techniques. They include transcranial direct current, alternating current and random noise stimulation. These methods modify the membrane potential of neurons without triggering the action potential, and have been successfully utilized to influence cognition and regulation of emotions in healthy experimental subjects. In clinical studies, indications of the efficacy of these techniques have been obtained in the treatment of depression, schizophrenia, memory disorders and pain as well as in stroke rehabilitation. It is hoped that these techniques will become established as part of the care and rehabilitation of psychiatric and neurologic patients in the future.

A Critical Review of Methods to Evaluate the Impact of FDA Regulatory Actions

PubMed Central

Briesacher, Becky A.; Soumerai, Stephen B.; Zhang, Fang; Toh, Sengwee; Andrade, Susan E.; Wagner, Joann L.; Shoaibi, Azadeh; Gurwitz, Jerry H.

2013-01-01

Purpose To conduct a synthesis of the literature on methods to evaluate the impacts of FDA regulatory actions, and identify best practices for future evaluations. Methods We searched MEDLINE for manuscripts published between January 1948 and August 2011 that included terms related to FDA, regulatory actions, and empirical evaluation; the review additionally included FDA-identified literature. We used a modified Delphi method to identify preferred methodologies. We included studies with explicit methods to address threats to validity, and identified designs and analytic methods with strong internal validity that have been applied to other policy evaluations. Results We included 18 studies out of 243 abstracts and papers screened. Overall, analytic rigor in prior evaluations of FDA regulatory actions varied considerably; less than a quarter of studies (22%) included control groups. Only 56% assessed changes in the use of substitute products/services, and 11% examined patient health outcomes. Among studies meeting minimal criteria of rigor, 50% found no impact or weak/modest impacts of FDA actions and 33% detected unintended consequences. Among those studies finding significant intended effects of FDA actions, all cited the importance of intensive communication efforts. There are preferred methods with strong internal validity that have yet to be applied to evaluations of FDA regulatory actions. Conclusions Rigorous evaluations of the impact of FDA regulatory actions have been limited and infrequent. Several methods with strong internal validity are available to improve trustworthiness of future evaluations of FDA policies. PMID:23847020

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

PubMed

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

Measurement of scour-depth near bridge piers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, J.V.

1986-01-01

Because a free-running craft will be undesirably heavy and large, other methods of obtaining scour data are proposed. A tethered craft fitted with a controllable rudder and some methods of measuring scour at a point are presented for future study and development.

The Impact of Cooperative Learning Methods on Elementary Preservice Education Teachers' Mathematics Achievement and Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swift, Elijah Raford, Jr.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to address the gap in research regarding the use of cooperative learning instructional methods in college mathematics courses to prepare future teachers. Bruner's constructivist theory and social interdependence theory guided this study. The research questions focused on the effects of the use of cooperative learning…

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

2018-01-01

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

Efficacy Evaluation of Current and Future Naval Mine Warfare Neutralization Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Distribution is unlimited. EFFICACY EVALUATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE NAVAL MINE WARFARE NEUTRALIZATION METHOD by Team MIW Cohort SE311-152O...EFFICACY EVALUATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE NAVAL MINE WARFARE NEUTRALIZATION METHOD 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR (S) Team MIW, Systems Engineering...NEUTRALIZATION METHOD Team MIW, Systems Engineering Cohort SE311-152O Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of

Status of knowledge on student-learning environments in nursing homes: A mixed-method systematic review.

PubMed

Husebø, Anne Marie Lunde; Storm, Marianne; Våga, Bodil Bø; Rosenberg, Adriana; Akerjordet, Kristin

2018-04-01

To give an overview of empirical studies investigating nursing homes as a learning environment during nursing students' clinical practice. A supportive clinical learning environment is crucial to students' learning and for their development into reflective and capable practitioners. Nursing students' experience with clinical practice can be decisive in future workplace choices. A competent workforce is needed for the future care of older people. Opportunities for maximum learning among nursing students during clinical practice studies in nursing homes should therefore be explored. Mixed-method systematic review using PRISMA guidelines, on learning environments in nursing homes, published in English between 2005-2015. Search of CINAHL with Full Text, Academic Search Premier, MEDLINE and SocINDEX with Full Text, in combination with journal hand searches. Three hundred and thirty-six titles were identified. Twenty studies met the review inclusion criteria. Assessment of methodological quality was based on the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Data were extracted and synthesised using a data analysis method for integrative reviews. Twenty articles were included. The majority of the studies showed moderately high methodological quality. Four main themes emerged from data synthesis: "Student characteristic and earlier experience"; "Nursing home ward environment"; "Quality of mentoring relationship and learning methods"; and "Students' achieved nursing competencies." Nursing home learning environments may be optimised by a well-prepared academic-clinical partnership, supervision by encouraging mentors and high-quality nursing care of older people. Positive learning experiences may increase students' professional development through achievement of basic nursing skills and competencies and motivate them to choose the nursing home as their future workplace. An optimal learning environment can be ensured by thorough preplacement preparations in academia and in nursing home wards, continuous supervision and facilitation of team learning. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical Research with Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS): Challenges and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Brunoni, Andre Russowsky; Nitsche, Michael A.; Bolognini, Nadia; Bikson, Marom; Wagner, Tim; Merabet, Lotfi; Edwards, Dylan J.; Valero-Cabre, Antoni; Rotenberg, Alexander; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro; Ferrucci, Roberta; Priori, Alberto; Boggio, Paulo; Fregni, Felipe

2011-01-01

Background Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a neuromodulatory technique that delivers low-intensity, direct current to cortical areas facilitating or inhibiting spontaneous neuronal activity. In the past ten years, tDCS physiological mechanisms of action have been intensively investigated giving support for the investigation of its applications in clinical neuropsychiatry and rehabilitation. However, new methodological, ethical, and regulatory issues emerge when translating the findings of preclinical and phase I studies into phase II and III clinical studies. The aim of this comprehensive review is to discuss the key challenges of this process and possible methods to address them. Methods We convened a workgroup of researchers in the field to review, discuss and provide updates and key challenges of neuromodulation use for clinical research. Main Findings/Discussion We reviewed several basic and clinical studies in the field and identified potential limitations, taking into account the particularities of the technique. We review and discuss the findings into four topics: (i) mechanisms of action of tDCS, parameters of use and computer-based human brain modeling investigating electric current fields and magnitude induced by tDCS; (ii) methodological aspects related to the clinical research of tDCS as divided according to study phase (i.e., preclinical, phase I, phase II and phase III studies); (iii) ethical and regulatory concerns; (iv) future directions regarding novel approaches, novel devices, and future studies involving tDCS. Finally, we propose some alternative methods to facilitate clinical research on tDCS. PMID:22037126

Quantitative studies of bird movement: a methodological review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Kaiser, A.

1999-01-01

The past several years have seen development of a number of statistical models and methods for drawing inferences about bird movement using data from marked individuals. It can be difficult to keep up with this rapid development of new methods, so our purpose here is to categorize and review methods for drawing inferences about avian movement. We also outline recommendations about future work dealing both with methods development and actual studies directed at hypotheses about bird movement of interest from conservation, management, or ecological perspectives.

Capillary Structures for Exploration Life Support (Capillary Structures)

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-07-10

iss052e013146 (July 10, 2017) --- Astronaut Jack Fischer is photographed during setup of hardware for the Capillary Structures for Exploration Life Support (Capillary Structures) two sorbent demonstrations. The Capillary Structures for Exploration Life Support (Capillary Structures) investigation studies a new method using structures of specific shapes to manage fluid and gas mixtures. The investigation studies water recycling and carbon dioxide removal, benefiting future efforts to design lightweight, more reliable life support systems for future space missions.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients

PubMed Central

Horwitz, Adam G.; Czyz, Ewa K.; King, Cheryl A.

2014-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Method Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15–24 years (M = 19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency (PE) services during a 9-month period. These patients’ medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Results SES, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for males, but not females). Conclusions Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for males. PMID:24871489

Methodology to explore interactions between the water system and society in order to identify adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Offermans, A. G. E.; Haasnoot, M.

2009-04-01

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves analysing current and future vulnerability, identification of adaptation possibilities, effect analysis and evaluation of the strategies under different possible futures. Recent studies on water management often followed the pressure-effect chain and compared the state of social, economic and ecological functions of the water systems in one or two future situations with the current situation. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. Water management faces major challenges to cope with future uncertainties in both the water system as well as the social system. Uncertainties in our water system relate to (changes in) drivers and pressures and their effects on the state, like the effects of climate change on discharges. Uncertainties in the social world relate to changing of perceptions, objectives and demands concerning water (management), which are often related with the aforementioned changes in the physical environment. The methodology presented here comprises the 'Perspectives method', derived from the Cultural Theory, a method on analyzing and classifying social response to social and natural states and pressures. The method will be used for scenario analysis and to identify social responses including changes in perspectives and management strategies. The scenarios and responses will be integrated within a rapid assessment tool. The purpose of the tool is to provide users with insight about the interaction of the social and physical system and to identify robust water management strategies by analysing the effectiveness under different possible futures on the physical, social and socio-economic system. This method allows for a mutual interaction between the physical and social system. We will present the theoretical background of the perspectives method as well as a historical overview of perspective changes in the Dutch Meuse area to show how social and physical systems interrelate. We will also show how the integration of both can contribute to the identification of robust water management strategies.

Exploring the Effects of Changes in Future Time Perspective and Perceived Instrumentality on Graded Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay

2009-01-01

Introduction: This study aimed to explore the possible changes in the Future Time Perspective (FTP) and Perceived Instrumentality (PI) over time as long as one academic semester, as well as to explore whether those changes in FTP and PI explained students' Graded Performance (GP) with regard to a specific course; educational psychology. Method: A…

Midwest Structural Sciences Center, 2006-2013

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

for Technology High Speed Systems Division Air Force Research Laboratory This report is published in the interest of scientific and...also be used for making predictions of future flights. 2 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Fig. 1.1: Development of future high ...methods were developed to provide validation quality data for coupled high temperature and acoustic loading environments, and to quantitatively study

Predicting the evolution of complex networks via similarity dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Chen, Leiting; Zhong, Linfeng; Xian, Xingping

2017-01-01

Almost all real-world networks are subject to constant evolution, and plenty of them have been investigated empirically to uncover the underlying evolution mechanism. However, the evolution prediction of dynamic networks still remains a challenging problem. The crux of this matter is to estimate the future network links of dynamic networks. This paper studies the evolution prediction of dynamic networks with link prediction paradigm. To estimate the likelihood of the existence of links more accurate, an effective and robust similarity index is presented by exploiting network structure adaptively. Moreover, most of the existing link prediction methods do not make a clear distinction between future links and missing links. In order to predict the future links, the networks are regarded as dynamic systems in this paper, and a similarity updating method, spatial-temporal position drift model, is developed to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of node similarity. Then the updated similarities are used as input information for the future links' likelihood estimation. Extensive experiments on real-world networks suggest that the proposed similarity index performs better than baseline methods and the position drift model performs well for evolution prediction in real-world evolving networks.

Utility of Vibratory Stimulation for Reducing Intraoral Injection Pain.

PubMed

Erdogan, Ozgur; Sinsawat, Anatachai; Pawa, Sudeep; Rintanalert, Duangtawan; Vuddhakanok, Suchada

2018-01-01

Intraoral local anesthesia injection is often perceived as a painful and anxiety-causing dental procedure. Vibration stimulus is one of the nonpharmacologic methods used to reduce unwanted sensations of local anesthesia injection. This clinical study evaluated the effectiveness of a recently introduced vibratory stimulation device in intraoral local anesthesia administration. Thirty-two subjects underwent 2 maxillary local anesthesia injections in 2 different sessions: 1 with conventional techniques and 1 with the aid of a vibratory stimulation device (DentalVibe). The pain levels were evaluated with a visual analog scale and the Wong-Baker FACES Pain Rating Scale. The subjects were asked to choose the preferred method for future injections. The data were evaluated statistically. There were no significant differences between the 2 injection methods with regard to either pain evaluation method. The preference of the subjects regarding future injection technique was evenly distributed between the groups. The vibratory stimulation device used in this study did not provide any reduction in pain level associated with maxillary infiltration local anesthesia administration.

Applications and Comparisons of Four Time Series Models in Epidemiological Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Young, Alistair A.; Li, Xiaosong

2014-01-01

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. PMID:24505382

24 CFR 291.90 - Sales methods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Sales methods. 291.90 Section 291....90 Sales methods. HUD will prescribe the terms and conditions for all methods of sale. HUD may, in... following methods of sale: (a) Future REO acquisition method. The Future Real Estate-Owned (REO) acquisition...

24 CFR 291.90 - Sales methods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Sales methods. 291.90 Section 291....90 Sales methods. HUD will prescribe the terms and conditions for all methods of sale. HUD may, in... following methods of sale: (a) Future REO acquisition method. The Future Real Estate-Owned (REO) acquisition...

24 CFR 291.90 - Sales methods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Sales methods. 291.90 Section 291....90 Sales methods. HUD will prescribe the terms and conditions for all methods of sale. HUD may, in... following methods of sale: (a) Future REO acquisition method. The Future Real Estate-Owned (REO) acquisition...

24 CFR 291.90 - Sales methods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Sales methods. 291.90 Section 291....90 Sales methods. HUD will prescribe the terms and conditions for all methods of sale. HUD may, in... following methods of sale: (a) Future REO acquisition method. The Future Real Estate-Owned (REO) acquisition...

24 CFR 291.90 - Sales methods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Sales methods. 291.90 Section 291....90 Sales methods. HUD will prescribe the terms and conditions for all methods of sale. HUD may, in... following methods of sale: (a) Future REO acquisition method. The Future Real Estate-Owned (REO) acquisition...

Effects of self-calibration of intrinsic alignment on cosmological parameter constraints from future cosmic shear surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Ji; Ishak, Mustapha; Lin, Weikang; Troxel, Michael

2017-10-01

Intrinsic alignments (IA) of galaxies have been recognized as one of the most serious contaminants to weak lensing. These systematics need to be isolated and mitigated in order for ongoing and future lensing surveys to reach their full potential. The IA self-calibration (SC) method was shown in previous studies to be able to reduce the GI contamination by up to a factor of 10 for the 2-point and 3-point correlations. The SC method does not require the assumption of an IA model in its working and can extract the GI signal from the same photo-z survey offering the possibility to test and understand structure formation scenarios and their relationship to IA models. In this paper, we study the effects of the IA SC mitigation method on the precision and accuracy of cosmological parameter constraints from future cosmic shear surveys LSST, WFIRST and Euclid. We perform analytical and numerical calculations to estimate the loss of precision and the residual bias in the best fit cosmological parameters after the self-calibration is performed. We take into account uncertainties from photometric redshifts and the galaxy bias. We find that the confidence contours are slightly inflated from applying the SC method itself while a significant increase is due to the inclusion of the photo-z uncertainties. The bias of cosmological parameters is reduced from several-σ, when IA is not corrected for, to below 1-σ after SC is applied. These numbers are comparable to those resulting from applying the method of marginalizing over IA model parameters despite the fact that the two methods operate very differently. We conclude that implementing the SC for these future cosmic-shear surveys will not only allow one to efficiently mitigate the GI contaminant but also help to understand their modeling and link to structure formation.

Study of future world markets for agricultural aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.

1979-01-01

The future world market for US-manufactured agricultural aircraft was studied and the technology needs for foreign markets were identified. Special emphasis was placed on the developing country market, but the developed countries and the communist group were also included in the forecasts. Aircraft needs were projected to the year 2000 by a method which accounted for field size, crop production, treated area, productivity, and attrition of the fleet. A special scenario involving a significant shift toward aerial fertilization was also considered. An operations analysis was conducted to compare the relative application costs of various existing and hypothetical future aircraft. A case study was made of Colombia as an example of a developing country in which aviation is emerging as an important industry.

Intervention studies to foster resilience - A systematic review and proposal for a resilience framework in future intervention studies.

PubMed

Chmitorz, A; Kunzler, A; Helmreich, I; Tüscher, O; Kalisch, R; Kubiak, T; Wessa, M; Lieb, K

2018-02-01

Psychological resilience refers to the phenomenon that many people are able to adapt to the challenges of life and maintain mental health despite exposure to adversity. This has stimulated research on training programs to foster psychological resilience. We evaluated concepts, methods and designs of 43 randomized controlled trials published between 1979 and 2014 which assessed the efficacy of such training programs and propose standards for future intervention research based on recent developments in the field. We found that concepts, methods and designs in current resilience intervention studies are of limited use to properly assess efficacy of interventions to foster resilience. Major problems are the use of definitions of resilience as trait or a composite of resilience factors, the use of unsuited assessment instruments, and inappropriate study designs. To overcome these challenges, we propose 1) an outcome-oriented definition of resilience, 2) an outcome-oriented assessment of resilience as change in mental health in relation to stressor load, and 3) methodological standards for suitable study designs of future intervention studies. Our proposals may contribute to an improved quality of resilience intervention studies and may stimulate further progress in this growing research field. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The relationship between trait self-control, consideration for future consequence and organizational citizenship behavior among Chinese employees.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Jie; Dou, Kai; Tang, Zhi-Wen

2017-01-01

Organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) is important to the development of an organization. Research into factors that foster OCB and the underlying processes are therefore substantially crucial. The current study aimed to test the association between trait self-control and OCB and the mediating role of consideration for future consequence. Four hundred and ninety-four Chinese employees (275 men, 219 women) took part in the study. Participants completed a battery of self-report measures online that assessed trait self-control, tendencies of consideration of future consequence, and organizational citizenship behavior. Path analysis was conducted and bootstrapping technique (N = 5000), a resampling method that is asymptotically more accurate than the standard intervals using sample variance and assumptions of normality, was used to judge the significance of the mediation. Results of path analysis showed that trait self-control was positively related to OCB. More importantly, the "trait self-control-OCB" link was mediated by consideration of future consequence-future, but not by consideration of future consequence-immediate. Employees with high trait self-control engage in more organizational citizenship behavior and this link can be partly explained by consideration of future consequence-future.

Non-invasive prediction of forthcoming cirrhosis-related complications

PubMed Central

Kang, Wonseok; Kim, Seung Up; Ahn, Sang Hoon

2014-01-01

In patients with chronic liver diseases, identification of significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis is essential for determining treatment strategies, assessing therapeutic response, and stratifying long-term prognosis. Although liver biopsy remains the reference standard for evaluating the extent of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases, several non-invasive methods have been developed as alternatives to liver biopsies. Some of these non-invasive methods have demonstrated clinical accuracy for diagnosing significant fibrosis or cirrhosis in many cross-sectional studies with the histological fibrosis stage as a reference standard. However, non-invasive methods cannot be fully validated through cross-sectional studies since liver biopsy is not a perfect surrogate endpoint marker. Accordingly, recent studies have focused on assessing the performance of non-invasive methods through long-term, longitudinal, follow-up studies with solid clinical endpoints related to advanced stages of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. As a result, current view is that these alternative methods can independently predict future cirrhosis-related complications, such as hepatic decompensation, liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver-related death. The clinical role of non-invasive models seems to be shifting from a simple tool for predicting the extent of fibrosis to a surveillance tool for predicting future liver-related events. In this article, we will summarize recent longitudinal studies of non-invasive methods for predicting forthcoming complications related to liver cirrhosis and discuss the clinical value of currently available non-invasive methods based on evidence from the literature. PMID:24627597

Combining the power of stories and the power of numbers: mixed methods research and mixed studies reviews.

PubMed

Pluye, Pierre; Hong, Quan Nha

2014-01-01

This article provides an overview of mixed methods research and mixed studies reviews. These two approaches are used to combine the strengths of quantitative and qualitative methods and to compensate for their respective limitations. This article is structured in three main parts. First, the epistemological background for mixed methods will be presented. Afterward, we present the main types of mixed methods research designs and techniques as well as guidance for planning, conducting, and appraising mixed methods research. In the last part, we describe the main types of mixed studies reviews and provide a tool kit and examples. Future research needs to offer guidance for assessing mixed methods research and reporting mixed studies reviews, among other challenges.

Accessible maps for the color vision deficient observers: past and present knowledge and future possibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvitle, Anne Kristin

2018-05-01

Color is part of the visual variables in map, serving an aesthetic part and as a guide of attention. Impaired color vision affects the ability to distinguish colors, which makes the task of decoding the map colors difficult. Map reading is reported as a challenging task for these observers, especially when the size of stimuli is small. The aim of this study is to review existing methods for map design for color vision deficient users. A systematic review of research literature and case studies of map design for CVD observers has been conducted in order to give an overview of current knowledge and future research challenges. In addition, relevant research on simulations of CVD and color image enhancement for these observers from other fields of industry is included. The study identified two main approaches: pre-processing by using accessible colors and post-processing by using enhancement methods. Some of the methods may be applied for maps, but requires tailoring of test images according to map types.

A resilience perspective to water risk management: case-study application of the adaptation tipping point method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gersonius, Berry; Ashley, Richard; Jeuken, Ad; Nasruddin, Fauzy; Pathirana, Assela; Zevenbergen, Chris

2010-05-01

In a context of high uncertainty about hydrological variables due to climate change and other factors, the development of updated risk management approaches is as important as—if not more important than—the provision of improved data and forecasts of the future. Traditional approaches to adaptation attempt to manage future water risks to cities with the use of the predict-then-adapt method. This method uses hydrological change projections as the starting point to identify adaptive strategies, which is followed by analysing the cause-effect chain based on some sort of Pressures-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) scheme. The predict-then-adapt method presumes that it is possible to define a singular (optimal) adaptive strategy according to a most likely or average projection of future change. A key shortcoming of the method is, however, that the planning of water management structures is typically decoupled from forecast uncertainties and is, as such, inherently inflexible. This means that there is an increased risk of under- or over-adaptation, resulting in either mal-functioning or unnecessary costs. Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible water risk management requires an alternative approach to adaptation that recognises and cultivates resiliency for change. The concept of resiliency relates to the capability of complex socio-technical systems to make aspirational levels of functioning attainable despite the occurrence of possible changes. Focusing on resiliency does not attempt to reduce uncertainty associated with future change, but rather to develop better ways of managing it. This makes it a particularly relevant perspective for adaptation to long-term hydrological change. Although resiliency is becoming more refined as a theory, the application of the concept to water risk management is still in an initial phase. Different methods are used in practice to support the implementation of a resilience-focused approach. Typically these approaches start the identification and analysis of adaptive strategies at the end of PSIR scheme: impact and examine whether, and for how long, current risk management strategies will continue to be effective under different future conditions. The most noteworthy application of this approach is the adaptation tipping point method. Adaptation tipping points (ATP) are defined as the points where the magnitude of change is such that the current risk management strategy can no longer meet its objectives. In the ATP method, policy objectives, determining aspirational functioning, are taken as the starting point. Also, the current measures to achieve these objectives are described. This is followed by a sensitivity analysis to determine the optimal and critical boundary conditions (state). Lastly, the state is related to pressures in terms of future change. It should be noted that in the ATP method the driver for adopting a new risk management strategy is not future change as such, but rather failing to meet the policy objectives. In the current paper, the ATP method is applied to the case study of an existing stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). This application shows the potential of the ATP method to reduce the complexity of implementing a resilience-focused approach to water risk management. It is expected that this will help foster greater practical relevance of resilience as a perspective for the planning of water management structures.

The Tree Theme Method in psychosocial occupational therapy: a case study.

PubMed

Gunnarsson, A Birgitta; Jansson, Jan-Ake; Eklund, Mona

2006-12-01

This study aimed to describe the Tree Theme Method (TTM) as a method for intervention in psychosocial occupational therapy. The TTM is based on theories concerning creative activities and occupational storytelling and story making. In order to exemplify the method a case study of a treatment process with follow up was undertaken. The participant was a female client suffering from anxiety and depression. During an interview the client painted symbolic trees on five different occasions with specific variations of the tree theme: a tree symbolizing her present life, her childhood, adolescence, adulthood, and, finally, a tree representing her future. The trees were used as starting points for the client to tell her life story. The intention was that she would find new strategies for how to change her daily life. Three years later there was a follow up stage where the client painted new trees and told her story. Some life themes were identified. The TTM appears suitable for intervention in psychosocial occupational therapy. In future studies the TTM should be subjected to evaluation research based on several clients in order to develop a deeper understanding of the process and what kind of results changes in the TTM intervention may provide.

A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.

2017-12-01

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

Development of Methodologies, Metrics, and Tools for Investigating Human-Robot Interaction in Space Robotics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ezer, Neta; Zumbado, Jennifer Rochlis; Sandor, Aniko; Boyer, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Human-robot systems are expected to have a central role in future space exploration missions that extend beyond low-earth orbit [1]. As part of a directed research project funded by NASA s Human Research Program (HRP), researchers at the Johnson Space Center have started to use a variety of techniques, including literature reviews, case studies, knowledge capture, field studies, and experiments to understand critical human-robot interaction (HRI) variables for current and future systems. Activities accomplished to date include observations of the International Space Station s Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM), Robonaut, and Space Exploration Vehicle (SEV), as well as interviews with robotics trainers, robot operators, and developers of gesture interfaces. A survey of methods and metrics used in HRI was completed to identify those most applicable to space robotics. These methods and metrics included techniques and tools associated with task performance, the quantification of human-robot interactions and communication, usability, human workload, and situation awareness. The need for more research in areas such as natural interfaces, compensations for loss of signal and poor video quality, psycho-physiological feedback, and common HRI testbeds were identified. The initial findings from these activities and planned future research are discussed. Human-robot systems are expected to have a central role in future space exploration missions that extend beyond low-earth orbit [1]. As part of a directed research project funded by NASA s Human Research Program (HRP), researchers at the Johnson Space Center have started to use a variety of techniques, including literature reviews, case studies, knowledge capture, field studies, and experiments to understand critical human-robot interaction (HRI) variables for current and future systems. Activities accomplished to date include observations of the International Space Station s Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM), Robonaut, and Space Exploration Vehicle (SEV), as well as interviews with robotics trainers, robot operators, and developers of gesture interfaces. A survey of methods and metrics used in HRI was completed to identify those most applicable to space robotics. These methods and metrics included techniques and tools associated with task performance, the quantification of human-robot interactions and communication, usability, human workload, and situation awareness. The need for more research in areas such as natural interfaces, compensations for loss of signal and poor video quality, psycho-physiological feedback, and common HRI testbeds were identified. The initial findings from these activities and planned future research are discussed.

Systematic Review of Economic Models Used to Compare Techniques for Detecting Peripheral Arterial Disease.

PubMed

Moloney, Eoin; O'Connor, Joanne; Craig, Dawn; Robalino, Shannon; Chrysos, Alexandros; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Sims, Andrew; Stansby, Gerard; Wilkes, Scott; Allen, John

2018-04-23

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common condition, in which atherosclerotic narrowing in the arteries restricts blood supply to the leg muscles. In order to support future model-based economic evaluations comparing methods of diagnosis in this area, a systematic review of economic modelling studies was conducted. A systematic literature review was performed in June 2017 to identify model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic tests to detect PAD, with six individual databases searched. The review was conducted in accordance with the methods outlined in the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination's guidance for undertaking reviews in healthcare, and appropriate inclusion criteria were applied. Relevant data were extracted, and studies were quality assessed. Seven studies were included in the final review, all of which were published between 1995 and 2014. There was wide variation in the types of diagnostic test compared. The majority of the studies (six of seven) referenced the sources used to develop their model, and all studies stated and justified the structural assumptions. Reporting of the data within the included studies could have been improved. Only one identified study focused on the cost-effectiveness of a test typically used in primary care. This review brings together all applied modelling methods for tests used in the diagnosis of PAD, which could be used to support future model-based economic evaluations in this field. The limited modelling work available on tests typically used for the detection of PAD in primary care, in particular, highlights the importance of future work in this area.

A Study of Economical Incentives for Voltage Profile Control Method in Future Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Takao; Sato, Noriyuki; Hashiguchi, Takuhei; Goda, Tadahiro; Tange, Seiji; Nomura, Toshio

In a future distribution network, it is difficult to maintain system voltage because a large number of distributed generators are introduced to the system. The authors have proposed “voltage profile control method” using power factor control of distributed generators in the previous work. However, the economical disbenefit is caused by the active power decrease when the power factor is controlled in order to increase the reactive power. Therefore, proper incentives must be given to the customers that corporate to the voltage profile control method. Thus, in this paper, we develop a new rules which can decide the economical incentives to the customers. The method is tested in one feeder distribution network model and its effectiveness is shown.

Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective-Evidence from China and the US futures markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Rui-Lin; Wang, Dong-Hua; Tu, Jing-Qing; Li, Sai-Ping

2016-12-01

Emerging as the earliest futures markets, agricultural futures markets play an important role in risk aversion and price discovery. With the integration of global economy, the linkage between domestic and international futures markets becomes closer than ever. By using the thermal optimal path (TOP) method, this paper selects soybean, corn and wheat as the representatives to study the dynamic lead-lag relationship between the Chinese and American markets in both returns and volatility. The results indicate that: (1) For the futures return, different kinds of agricultural futures lead-lag relationship between China and the US varied before 2014 both in direction and order in different time periods. However, China leads the US for all the three kinds we study after 2014. (2) Agricultural commodities subject to less import restrictions and government regulations in China such as soybean are more susceptible to the fluctuations from the international markets. On the other hand, lower foreign trade openness and more government regulation species such as wheat are less affected by fluctuations from outside. (3) The volatility transmission from the US to China wheat futures market takes longer time than soybean, which suggests that China's soybean futures market is more closely linked to the international agricultural futures market than wheat.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

The Role of Ambulatory Assessment in Psychological Science.

PubMed

Trull, Timothy J; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich

2014-12-01

We describe the current use and future promise of an innovative methodology, ambulatory assessment (AA), that can be used to investigate psychological, emotional, behavioral, and biological processes of individuals in their daily life. The term AA encompasses a wide range of methods used to study people in their natural environment, including momentary self-report, observational, and physiological. We emphasize applications of AA that integrate two or more of these methods, discuss the smart phone as a hub or access point for AA, and discuss future applications of AA methodology to the science of psychology. We pay particular attention to the development and application of Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) that can be implemented with smart phones and wireless physiological monitoring devices, and we close by discussing future applications of this approach to matters relevant to psychological science.

Using the Delphi Method for Selecting Effective Rehabilitation Practices for Case Study Research: Methods, Challenges, and Solutions and Implications for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Allison R.; Boeltzig-Brown, Heike; Foley, Susan M.

2015-01-01

Purpose: We describe a modified Delphi method used to select effective state vocational rehabilitation agency practices to prioritize rehabilitation services for individuals with most significant disabilities within the context of Order of Selection, an area where there is little known and published. Specifically, we describe how we applied the…

Defining the methodological challenges and opportunities for an effective science of sociotechnical systems and safety

PubMed Central

Waterson, Patrick; Robertson, Michelle M.; Cooke, Nancy J.; Militello, Laura; Roth, Emilie; Stanton, Neville A.

2015-01-01

An important part of the application of sociotechnical systems theory (STS) is the development of methods, tools and techniques to assess human factors and ergonomics workplace requirements. We focus in this paper on describing and evaluating current STS methods for workplace safety, as well as outlining a set of six case studies covering the application of these methods to a range of safety contexts. We also describe an evaluation of the methods in terms of ratings of their ability to address a set of theoretical and practical questions (e.g. the degree to which methods capture static/dynamic aspects of tasks and interactions between system levels). The outcomes from the evaluation highlight a set of gaps relating to the coverage and applicability of current methods for STS and safety (e.g. coverage of external influences on system functioning; method usability). The final sections of the paper describe a set of future challenges, as well as some practical suggestions for tackling these. Practitioner Summary: We provide an up-to-date review of STS methods, a set of case studies illustrating their use and an evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses. The paper concludes with a ‘roadmap’ for future work. PMID:25832121

Revisiting the Quantitative-Qualitative Debate: Implications for Mixed-Methods Research

PubMed Central

SALE, JOANNA E. M.; LOHFELD, LYNNE H.; BRAZIL, KEVIN

2015-01-01

Health care research includes many studies that combine quantitative and qualitative methods. In this paper, we revisit the quantitative-qualitative debate and review the arguments for and against using mixed-methods. In addition, we discuss the implications stemming from our view, that the paradigms upon which the methods are based have a different view of reality and therefore a different view of the phenomenon under study. Because the two paradigms do not study the same phenomena, quantitative and qualitative methods cannot be combined for cross-validation or triangulation purposes. However, they can be combined for complementary purposes. Future standards for mixed-methods research should clearly reflect this recommendation. PMID:26523073

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of sugar-sweetened beverages among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study.

PubMed

Riordan, Fiona; Ryan, Kathleen; Perry, Ivan J; Schulze, Matthias B; Andersen, Lene Frost; Geelen, Anouk; Van't Veer, Pieter; Eussen, Simone; van Dongen, Martien; Wijckmans-Duysens, Nicole; Harrington, Janas M

2017-03-01

Research indicates that intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) may be associated with negative health consequences. However, differences between assessment methods can affect the comparability of intake data across studies. The current review aimed to identify methods used to assess SSB intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and to inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed SSB consumption were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children and adults. The review identified twenty-three pan-European studies which assessed intake of SSB. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 24), followed by the 24 h recall (n 6) and diet records (n 1). There were several differences between the identified FFQ, including the definition of SSB used. In total, seven instruments that were tested for validity were selected as potentially suitable to assess SSB intake among adults (n 1), adolescents (n 3) and children (n 3). The current review highlights the need for instruments to use an agreed definition of SSB. Methods that were tested for validity and used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of countries were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating consumption of SSB.

Impact Studies in Continuing Education for Health Professions: Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Mary Kathryn; Umble, Karl E.; Cervero, Ronald M.

2003-01-01

Introduction: This article critiques the questions asked and methods used in research syntheses in continuing education (CE) in the health professions, summarizes the findings of the syntheses, and makes recommendations for future CE research and practice. Methods: We identified 1.5 research syntheses published after 1993 in which primary CE…

Arizona Indian Demographic Data: Needs and Recommendations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Benjamin J.; Helmkamp, John

Included in this report on Arizona Indian demographic data are "an evaluation of several recent studies of Indian populations" and "an extensive analysis of methods for obtaining and maintaining accurate data in the future." Recommended methods by which accurate population data for the smaller reservations should be maintained are included in the…

Future Teachers' Dispositions toward Teaching with Geospatial Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jo, Injeong

2016-01-01

This study examined the effect of a minimal Web-based GIS experience within a semester-long methods course on enhancing preservice teachers' dispositions regarding the use of geospatial technologies for teaching. Fourteen preservice teachers enrolled in a senior-level methods course offered in geography and focused exclusively on how to teach…

EPA Method 544: A Case Study in USEPA Drinking Water Method Develpment

EPA Science Inventory

The 1996 amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act required the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to establish a Drinking Water Contaminant Candidate List (CCL) of chemicals and microbes that the Agency will consider for future regulation. One of the key pieces of info...

Characteristics of real futures trading networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junjie; Zhou, Shuigeng; Guan, Jihong

2011-01-01

Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks, in which nodes are trading participants, and two nodes have a common edge if the two corresponding investors appear simultaneously in at least one trading record as a purchaser and a seller, respectively. Then, we conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis on the constructed futures trading networks. Empirical results show that the futures trading networks exhibit features such as scale-free behavior with interesting odd-even-degree divergence in low-degree regions, small-world effect, hierarchical organization, power-law betweenness distribution, disassortative mixing, and shrinkage of both the average path length and the diameter as network size increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that uses real data to study futures trading networks, and we argue that the research results can shed light on the nature of real futures business.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The future of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) in metabolic profiling and metabolomic studies for biomarker discovery

PubMed Central

Metz, Thomas O.; Zhang, Qibin; Page, Jason S.; Shen, Yufeng; Callister, Stephen J.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Smith, Richard D.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY The future utility of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) in metabolic profiling and metabolomic studies for biomarker discover will be discussed, beginning with a brief description of the evolution of metabolomics and the utilization of the three most popular analytical platforms in such studies: NMR, GC-MS, and LC-MS. Emphasis is placed on recent developments in high-efficiency LC separations, sensitive electrospray ionization approaches, and the benefits to incorporating both in LC-MS-based approaches. The advantages and disadvantages of various quantitative approaches are reviewed, followed by the current LC-MS-based tools available for candidate biomarker characterization and identification. Finally, a brief prediction on the future path of LC-MS-based methods in metabolic profiling and metabolomic studies is given. PMID:19177179

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

Episodic and semantic components of autobiographical memories and imagined future events in post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Brown, Adam D; Addis, Donna Rose; Romano, Tracy A; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A; Hirst, William; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to retrieve autobiographical memories with less episodic specificity, referred to as overgeneralised autobiographical memory. In line with evidence that autobiographical memory overlaps with one's capacity to imagine the future, recent work has also shown that individuals with PTSD also imagine themselves in the future with less episodic specificity. To date most studies quantify episodic specificity by the presence of a distinct event. However, this method does not distinguish between the numbers of internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details, which can provide additional insights into remembering the past and imagining the future. This study employed the Autobiographical Interview (AI) coding scheme to the autobiographical memory and imagined future event narratives generated by combat veterans with and without PTSD. Responses were coded for the number of internal and external details. Compared to combat veterans without PTSD, those with PTSD generated more external than internal details when recalling past or imagining future events, and fewer internal details were associated with greater symptom severity. The potential mechanisms underlying these bidirectional deficits and clinical implications are discussed.

Streamflow Bias Correction for Climate Change Impact Studies: Harmless Correction or Wrecking Ball?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.

2017-12-01

Projections of the hydrologic impacts of climate change rely on a modeling chain that includes estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions, global climate models, and hydrologic models. The resulting streamflow time series are used in turn as input to impact studies. While these flows can sometimes be used directly in these impact studies, many applications require additional post-processing to remove model errors. Water resources models and regulation studies are a prime example of this type of application. These models rely on specific flows and reservoir levels to trigger reservoir releases and diversions and do not function well if the unregulated streamflow inputs are significantly biased in time and/or amount. This post-processing step is typically referred to as bias-correction, even though this step corrects not just the mean but the entire distribution of flows. Various quantile-mapping approaches have been developed that adjust the modeled flows to match a reference distribution for some historic period. Simulations of future flows are then post-processed using this same mapping to remove hydrologic model errors. These streamflow bias-correction methods have received far less scrutiny than the downscaling and bias-correction methods that are used for climate model output, mostly because they are less widely used. However, some of these methods introduce large artifacts in the resulting flow series, in some cases severely distorting the climate change signal that is present in future flows. In this presentation, we discuss our experience with streamflow bias-correction methods as part of a climate change impact study in the Columbia River basin in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. To support this discussion, we present a novel way to assess whether a streamflow bias-correction method is merely a harmless correction or is more akin to taking a wrecking ball to the climate change signal.

Technology-delivered adaptations of motivational interviewing for health-related behaviors: A systematic review of the current research

PubMed Central

Shingleton, Rebecca M.; Palfai, Tibor P.

2015-01-01

Objectives The aims of this paper were to describe and evaluate the methods and efficacy of technology-delivered motivational interviewing interventions (TAMIs), discuss the challenges and opportunities of TAMIs, and provide a framework for future research. Methods We reviewed studies that reported using motivational interviewing (MI) based components delivered via technology and conducted ratings on technology description, comprehensiveness of MI, and study methods. Results The majority of studies were fully-automated and included at least one form of media rich technology to deliver the TAMI. Few studies provided complete descriptions of how MI components were delivered via technology. Of the studies that isolated the TAMI effects, positive changes were reported. Conclusion Researchers have used a range of technologies to deliver TAMIs suggesting feasibility of these methods. However, there are limited data regarding their efficacy, and strategies to deliver relational components remain a challenge. Future research should better characterize the components of TAMIs, empirically test the efficacy of TAMIs with randomized controlled trials, and incorporate fidelity measures. Practice Implications TAMIs are feasible to implement and well accepted. These approaches offer considerable potential to reduce costs, minimize therapist and training burden, and expand the range of clients that may benefit from adaptations of MI. PMID:26298219

Role of triggers and dysphoria in mind-wandering about past, present and future: A laboratory study.

PubMed

Plimpton, Benjamin; Patel, Priya; Kvavilashvili, Lia

2015-05-01

To bridge the related but separate areas of research on mind-wandering and Involuntary Autobiographical Memory (IAM), the frequency and temporal focus of task unrelated thoughts about past, present, and future was compared in 19 dysphoric and 21 non-dysphoric participants, using a modified laboratory method for studying IAMs. Participants were stopped 11 times during a 15-min vigilance task and recorded their thoughts at that moment. In both groups, most thoughts were spontaneous, task-unrelated, and triggered by irrelevant cue-words on the screen with negative words being more likely to trigger past memories and positive cues - thoughts about future. Both groups reported more past memories than current or future thoughts, but differences emerged in the type of future thought experienced: non-dysphoric participants reported more planning thoughts, and dysphoric participants more abstract hypothetical thoughts. The results suggest that some findings from IAM research regarding cues and the impact of dysphoria may be generalizable to mind-wandering. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preparing Future Scholars for Academia and Beyond: A Mixed Method Investigation of Doctoral Students' Preparedness for Multiple Career Paths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cason, Jennifer

2016-01-01

This action research study is a mixed methods investigation of doctoral students' preparedness for multiple career paths. PhD students face two challenges preparing for multiple career paths: lack of preparation and limited engagement in conversations about the value of their research across multiple audiences. This study focuses on PhD students'…

A Multi-Method Qualitative Study of a New Teacher Inservice Training Program to Improve Teaching in a Primary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Diann C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this multi-method qualitative study was to collect data for a future development of an in-service training program for new teachers employed by Lake Forest Academy (pseudonym). New teachers of children with special educational needs faced challenges teaching in this Middle East country in addition to those faced by the new general…

Exploring Teachers' Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK) in an Online Course: A Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varguez, Ricardo

2012-01-01

The constant expansion of Web 2.0 applications available on the World Wide Web and expansion of technology resources has prompted the need to better prepare current and future educators to make more effective use of such resources in their classrooms. The purpose of this embedded mixed methods case study was to describe the experiences and changes…

Quantitative studies of bird movement: A methodological review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Kaiser, A.

1999-01-01

The past several years have seen the development of a number of statistical models and methods for drawing inferences about bird movement using data from marked individuals. It can be difficult to keep up with this rapid development of new methods, so our purpose here is to categorize and review methods for drawing inferences about avian movement. We also outline recommendations about future work, dealing both with methodological developments and with studies directed at hypotheses about bird movement of interest from conservation, management, or ecological perspectives.

Manual B-mode versus automated radio-frequency carotid intima-media thickness measurements.

PubMed

Dogan, Soner; Plantinga, Yvonne; Dijk, Joke M; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Grobbee, Diederick E; Bots, Michiel L

2009-10-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) serves as an indicator of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk. Manual measurements of B-mode ultrasound images are the most applied method. Automated measurements with radiofrequency (RF) ultrasound have been suggested as an alternative. The aim of this study was to compare these methods in terms of risk-factor relations and associations with future events. Data from participants of the Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART) study were used. Far wall common CIMT was measured online with manual B-mode and automated RF ultrasound. Measurements were performed by a group of 6 sonographers. Risk-factor information was obtained. All participants were followed for the occurrence of vascular events (mean follow-up, 2.1 years). CIMT was related to risk factors with linear regression models and to future events with Cox proportional-hazards models. Data were available for 2,146 participants. Agreement between the methods was modest (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.34). Risk-factor relations with age and systolic blood pressure were stronger for B-mode than for RF ultrasound. Association with future events was better for B-mode than for RF ultrasound (vascular death, 1.27 vs 1.00; ischemic stroke, 1.45 vs 1.03). In participants with CIMT < 0.9 mm (without plaque), the intraclass correlation between the measures was 0.50. In addition, in that subgroup, RF ultrasound showed a stronger association with future events than B-mode ultrasound (all events, 1.59 vs 1.09; vascular death, 1.72 vs 0.93; coronary ischemic events, 1.65 vs 1.05). The preference for either B-mode or RF measurements may be driven by the type of study population, the expected presence of local atherosclerotic abnormalities, and the main aim of the study (assessing risk factors or events). However, in this study, as in many others, the B-mode approach was shown to be robust in risk-factor relations and the prediction of events.

Validation of a method to evaluate future impact of road safety interventions, a comparison between fatal passenger car crashes in Sweden 2000 and 2010.

PubMed

Strandroth, Johan

2015-03-01

When targeting a society free from serious and fatal road-traffic injuries, it has been a common practice in many countries and organizations to set up time-limited and quantified targets for the reduction of fatalities and injuries. In setting these targets EU and other organizations have recognized the importance to monitor and predict the development toward the target as well as the efficiency of road safety policies and interventions. This study aims to validate a method to forecast future road safety challenges by applying it to the fatal crashes in Sweden in 2000 and using the method to explain the change in fatalities based on the road safety interventions made until 2010. The estimation of the method is then compared to the true outcome in 2010. The aim of this study was to investigate if a residual of crashes produced by a partial analysis could constitute a sufficient base to describe the characteristics of future crashes. show that out of the 332 car occupants killed in 2000, 197 were estimated to constitute the residual in 2010. Consequently, 135 fatalities from 2000 were estimated by the model to be prevented by 2010. That is a predicted reduction of 41% compared to the reduction in the real outcome of 53%, from 332 in 2000 to 156 in 2010. The method was found able to generate a residual of crashes in 2010 from the crashes in 2000 that had a very similar nature, with regards to crash type, as the true outcome of 2010. It was also found suitable to handle double counting and system effects. However, future research is needed in order to investigate how external factors as well as random and systematic variation should be taken into account in a reliable manner. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A rare sugar xylitol. Part II: biotechnological production and future applications of xylitol.

PubMed

Granström, Tom Birger; Izumori, Ken; Leisola, Matti

2007-02-01

Xylitol is the first rare sugar that has global markets. It has beneficial health properties and represents an alternative to current conventional sweeteners. Industrially, xylitol is produced by chemical hydrogenation of D-xylose into xylitol. The biotechnological method of producing xylitol by metabolically engineered yeasts, Saccharomyces cerevisiae or Candida, has been studied as an alternative to the chemical method. Due to the industrial scale of production, xylitol serves as an inexpensive starting material for the production of other rare sugars. The second part of this mini-review on xylitol will look more closely at the biotechnological production and future applications of the rare sugar, xylitol.

Back to "the Future": Evidence of a Bifactor Solution for Scores on the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale.

PubMed

McKay, Michael T; Morgan, Grant B; van Exel, N Job; Worrell, Frank C

2015-01-01

Despite its widespread use, disagreement remains regarding the structure of the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS). In particular there is disagreement regarding whether the scale assesses future orientation as a unidimensional or multidimensional (immediate and future) construct. Using 2 samples of high school students in the United Kingdom, 4 models were tested. The totality of results including item loadings, goodness-of-fit indexes, and reliability estimates all supported the bifactor model, suggesting that the 2 hypothesized factors are better understood as grouping or method factors rather than as representative of latent constructs. Accordingly this study supports the unidimensionality of the CFCS and the scoring of all 12 items to produce a global future orientation score. Researchers intending to use the CFCS, and those with existing data, are encouraged to examine a bifactor solution for the scale.

Contributions of different bias-correction methods and reference meteorological forcing data sets to uncertainty in projected temperature and precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Takikawa, Hiroki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Hanasaki, Naota; Nishimori, Motoki

2017-08-01

The use of different bias-correction methods and global retrospective meteorological forcing data sets as the reference climatology in the bias correction of general circulation model (GCM) daily data is a known source of uncertainty in projected climate extremes and their impacts. Despite their importance, limited attention has been given to these uncertainty sources. We compare 27 projected temperature and precipitation indices over 22 regions of the world (including the global land area) in the near (2021-2060) and distant future (2061-2100), calculated using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five GCMs, two bias-correction methods, and three reference forcing data sets. To widen the variety of forcing data sets, we developed a new forcing data set, S14FD, and incorporated it into this study. The results show that S14FD is more accurate than other forcing data sets in representing the observed temperature and precipitation extremes in recent decades (1961-2000 and 1979-2008). The use of different bias-correction methods and forcing data sets contributes more to the total uncertainty in the projected precipitation index values in both the near and distant future than the use of different GCMs and RCPs. However, GCM appears to be the most dominant uncertainty source for projected temperature index values in the near future, and RCP is the most dominant source in the distant future. Our findings encourage climate risk assessments, especially those related to precipitation extremes, to employ multiple bias-correction methods and forcing data sets in addition to using different GCMs and RCPs.

Evaluating employee assistance programs. A review of methods, outcomes, and future directions.

PubMed

Jerrell, J M; Rightmyer, J F

1982-01-01

Renewed interest in assisting troubled employees has led to an upsurge in the development of employee assistance programs, coupled with demands for demonstrable effectiveness. This review examines the nature and scope of these programs, their administrative and methodological context, and the types and outcomes of evaluation studies conducted thus far. Proposals for improving future investigations through a number of different approaches and strategies are then made.

Short-Term Effect of Two Semi-Occluded Vocal Tract Training Programs on the Vocal Quality of Future Occupational Voice Users: "Resonant Voice Training Using Nasal Consonants" versus "Straw Phonation"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meerschman, Iris; Van Lierde, Kristiane; Peeters, Karen; Meersman, Eline; Claeys, Sofie; D'haeseleer, Evelien

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the short-term effect of 2 semi-occluded vocal tract training programs, "resonant voice training using nasal consonants" versus "straw phonation," on the vocal quality of vocally healthy future occupational voice users. Method: A multigroup pretest--posttest randomized control…

Studying depression using imaging and machine learning methods.

PubMed

Patel, Meenal J; Khalaf, Alexander; Aizenstein, Howard J

2016-01-01

Depression is a complex clinical entity that can pose challenges for clinicians regarding both accurate diagnosis and effective timely treatment. These challenges have prompted the development of multiple machine learning methods to help improve the management of this disease. These methods utilize anatomical and physiological data acquired from neuroimaging to create models that can identify depressed patients vs. non-depressed patients and predict treatment outcomes. This article (1) presents a background on depression, imaging, and machine learning methodologies; (2) reviews methodologies of past studies that have used imaging and machine learning to study depression; and (3) suggests directions for future depression-related studies.

Recruitment to Intellectual Disability Research: A Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicholson, L.; Colyer, M.; Cooper, S. -A.

2013-01-01

Background: Difficulties in the recruitment of adults with intellectual disability (ID) to research studies are well described but little studied. The aim of this study was to investigate the difficulties in recruiting to a specific research project, in order to inform future recruitment to ID research. Methods: Individual semi-structured…

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of fruits and vegetables among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study.

PubMed

Riordan, Fiona; Ryan, Kathleen; Perry, Ivan J; Schulze, Matthias B; Andersen, Lene Frost; Geelen, Anouk; Van't Veer, Pieter; Eussen, Simone; Dagnelie, Pieter; Wijckmans-Duysens, Nicole; Harrington, Janas M

2017-02-01

Evidence suggests that health benefits are associated with consuming recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables (F&V), yet standardised assessment methods to measure F&V intake are lacking. The current review aims to identify methods to assess F&V intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed F&V intake were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children or adults. The review identified fifty-one pan-European studies which assessed F&V intake. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 42), followed by 24 h recall (n 11) and diet records/diet history (n 7). Differences existed between the identified methods; for example, the number of F&V items on the FFQ and whether potatoes/legumes were classified as vegetables. In total, eight validated instruments were identified which assessed F&V intake among adults, adolescents or children. The current review indicates that an agreed classification of F&V is needed in order to standardise intake data more effectively between European countries. Validated methods used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of European regions were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating intake of F&V.

Conduct of a personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurement study: proposed study protocol

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The development of new wireless communication technologies that emit radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) is ongoing, but little is known about the RF-EMF exposure distribution in the general population. Previous attempts to measure personal exposure to RF-EMF have used different measurement protocols and analysis methods making comparisons between exposure situations across different study populations very difficult. As a result, observed differences in exposure levels between study populations may not reflect real exposure differences but may be in part, or wholly due to methodological differences. Methods The aim of this paper is to develop a study protocol for future personal RF-EMF exposure studies based on experience drawn from previous research. Using the current knowledge base, we propose procedures for the measurement of personal exposure to RF-EMF, data collection, data management and analysis, and methods for the selection and instruction of study participants. Results We have identified two basic types of personal RF-EMF measurement studies: population surveys and microenvironmental measurements. In the case of a population survey, the unit of observation is the individual and a randomly selected representative sample of the population is needed to obtain reliable results. For microenvironmental measurements, study participants are selected in order to represent typical behaviours in different microenvironments. These two study types require different methods and procedures. Conclusion Applying our proposed common core procedures in future personal measurement studies will allow direct comparisons of personal RF-EMF exposures in different populations and study areas. PMID:20487532

Statistical Methods in Integrative Genomics

PubMed Central

Richardson, Sylvia; Tseng, George C.; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

Statistical methods in integrative genomics aim to answer important biology questions by jointly analyzing multiple types of genomic data (vertical integration) or aggregating the same type of data across multiple studies (horizontal integration). In this article, we introduce different types of genomic data and data resources, and then review statistical methods of integrative genomics, with emphasis on the motivation and rationale of these methods. We conclude with some summary points and future research directions. PMID:27482531

The Association of Daily Physical Symptoms with Future Health

PubMed Central

Leger, Kate A.; Charles, Susan T.; Ayanian, John Z.; Almeida, David M.

2015-01-01

Rationale Daily physical symptoms play a critical role in health and illness experiences. Despite their daily prevalence, the ability of these symptoms to predict future health status is debated. Objective The current study examined whether physical symptom reports predict future health outcomes independent of trait measures of emotion. Methods Participants (N = 1189) who completed both Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Surveys I and II as well as the National Study of Daily Experiences (NSDE) reported their daily physical symptoms at baseline and number of reported chronic conditions and functional disability nearly 10 years later. Results Physical symptoms at baseline significantly predicted the occurrence of chronic conditions and functional impairment at long-term follow-up, even after adjusting for self-reported affect, self-reported health, and previous health status. Conclusion Findings suggest that daily physical symptoms are unique indicators of future health status. PMID:26364011

Positive future orientation as a mediator between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jintao; Zhao, Guoxiang; Li, Xiaoming; Hong, Yan; Fang, Xiaoyi; Barnett, Douglas; Lin, Xiuyun; Zhao, Junfeng; Zhang, Liying

2009-12-01

The current study was designed to explore the effect of future orientation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health in children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China. Cross-sectional data were collected from 1221 children affected by HIV/AIDS (755 AIDS orphans and 466 vulnerable children). Future orientation among children was measured using three indicators (future expectation, hopefulness toward the future, and perceived control over the future). Measures of mental health consisted of depression, loneliness, and self-esteem. Children's experience of any traumatic events was measured using a modified version of the Life Incidence of Traumatic Events-Student Form. Mediation analysis was conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM) methods. Among the children surveyed, most of the traumatic indicators were negatively associated with future expectation, hopefulness, perceived control, and self-esteem, and positively associated with depression and loneliness. The SEM of mediation analysis demonstrated an adequate fit. Future orientation fully mediated the relationship between traumatic events and mental health and accounted for 67.9% of the total effect of traumatic events on mental health. Results of this study support the positive effect of future expectation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in China. Future mental health promotion and intervention efforts targeting children affected by HIV/AIDS should include components that can mitigate the negative impact of traumatic events on their lives. These components may aim to develop children's positive future expectations, increase their hopefulness toward the future, and improve their perceived control over the future.

Comparison of Past, Present, and Future Volume Estimation Methods for Tennessee

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Alexander Clark; Ray A. Souter

2003-01-01

Forest Inventory and Analysis 1999 survey data for Tennessee were used to compare stem-volume estimates obtained using a previous method, the current method, and newly developed taper models that will be used in the future. Compared to the current method, individual tree volumes were consistently underestimated with the previous method, especially for the hardwoods....

Through a Glass Darkly: Glimpses into the Future of Mass Spectrometry

PubMed Central

Cooks, R. Graham; Mueller, Thomas

2013-01-01

The paper has three parts, (i) a brief overview of the main achievements made using mass spectrometry across all the fields of science, (ii) a survey of some of the topics currently being pursued most activity, including both applications and fundamental studies, and (iii) some hints as to what the future of mass spectrometry might hold with particular emphasis on revolutionary changes in the subject. Emphasis is given to ambient methods of ionization and their use in disease diagnosis and to their use in combination with miniature mass spectrometers for in-situ measurements. Special attention goes to the chemical aspects of mass spectrometry, including its emerging role as a preparative method based on accelerated bimolecular reaction rates in solution and on ion soft landing as a means of surface tailoring. In summary, the paper covers the proud history, vibrant present and expansive future of mass spectrometry. PMID:24349920

Experiences applying Formal Approaches in the Development of Swarm-Based Space Exploration Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher A.; Hinchey, Michael G.; Truszkowski, Walter F.; Rash, James L.

2006-01-01

NASA is researching advanced technologies for future exploration missions using intelligent swarms of robotic vehicles. One of these missions is the Autonomous Nan0 Technology Swarm (ANTS) mission that will explore the asteroid belt using 1,000 cooperative autonomous spacecraft. The emergent properties of intelligent swarms make it a potentially powerful concept, but at the same time more difficult to design and ensure that the proper behaviors will emerge. NASA is investigating formal methods and techniques for verification of such missions. The advantage of using formal methods is the ability to mathematically verify the behavior of a swarm, emergent or otherwise. Using the ANTS mission as a case study, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and ensuring desired swarm behavior. This paper discusses the results of this evaluation and proposes an integrated formal method for ensuring correct behavior of future NASA intelligent swarms.

Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

PubMed

Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

2018-02-15

The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for PTSD and Depression Symptoms Reduces Risk for Future Intimate Partner Violence among Interpersonal Trauma Survivors

PubMed Central

Iverson, Katherine M.; Gradus, Jaimie L.; Resick, Patricia A.; Suvak, Michael K.; Smith, Kamala F.; Monson, Candice M.

2010-01-01

Objective Women who develop symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression subsequent to interpersonal trauma are at heightened risk for future intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective in reducing PTSD and depression symptoms, yet limited research has investigated the effectiveness of cognitive-behavior therapy in reducing risk for future IPV among interpersonal trauma survivors. Method This study examined the effect of CBT for PTSD and depressive symptoms on the risk of future IPV victimization in a sample of women survivors of interpersonal violence. The current sample included 150 women diagnosed with PTSD secondary to an array of interpersonal traumatic events who were participating in a randomized clinical trial of different forms of cognitive processing therapy for the treatment of PTSD. Participants were assessed at nine time points as part of the larger trial: pre-treatment, six times during treatment, post-treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. Results As hypothesized, reductions in both PTSD and depressive symptoms during treatment were associated with a decreased likelihood of IPV victimization at a 6-month follow-up even after controlling for recent IPV (i.e., IPV from a current partner within the year prior to beginning the study) and prior interpersonal traumas. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of identifying and treating PTSD and depressive symptoms among interpersonal trauma survivors as a method for reducing risk for future IPV. PMID:21341889

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yao, Ji; Ishak, Mustapha; Lin, Weikang

Intrinsic alignments (IA) of galaxies have been recognized as one of the most serious contaminants to weak lensing. These systematics need to be isolated and mitigated in order for ongoing and future lensing surveys to reach their full potential. The IA self-calibration (SC) method was shown in previous studies to be able to reduce the GI contamination by up to a factor of 10 for the 2-point and 3-point correlations. The SC method does not require the assumption of an IA model in its working and can extract the GI signal from the same photo-z survey offering the possibility tomore » test and understand structure formation scenarios and their relationship to IA models. In this paper, we study the effects of the IA SC mitigation method on the precision and accuracy of cosmological parameter constraints from future cosmic shear surveys LSST, WFIRST and Euclid. We perform analytical and numerical calculations to estimate the loss of precision and the residual bias in the best fit cosmological parameters after the self-calibration is performed. We take into account uncertainties from photometric redshifts and the galaxy bias. We find that the confidence contours are slightly inflated from applying the SC method itself while a significant increase is due to the inclusion of the photo-z uncertainties. The bias of cosmological parameters is reduced from several-σ, when IA is not corrected for, to below 1-σ after SC is applied. These numbers are comparable to those resulting from applying the method of marginalizing over IA model parameters despite the fact that the two methods operate very differently. We conclude that implementing the SC for these future cosmic-shear surveys will not only allow one to efficiently mitigate the GI contaminant but also help to understand their modeling and link to structure formation.« less

Review of levoglucosan in glacier snow and ice studies: Recent progress and future perspectives.

PubMed

You, Chao; Xu, Chao

2018-03-01

Levoglucosan (LEV) in glacier snow and ice layers provides a fingerprint of fire activity, ranging from modern air pollution to ancient fire emissions. In this study, we review recent progress in our understanding and application of LEV in glaciers, including analytical methods, transport and post-depositional processes, and historical records. We firstly summarize progress in analytical methods for determination of LEV in glacier snow and ice. Then, we discuss the processes influencing the records of LEV in snow and ice layers. Finally, we make some recommendations for future work, such as assessing the stability of LEV and obtaining continuous records, to increase reliability of the reconstructed ancient fire activity. This review provides an update for researchers working with LEV and will facilitate the further use of LEV as a biomarker in paleo-fire studies based on ice core records. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring of the Educational Process during the Pedagogical Practical Training in School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saudabaeva, Gylmira; Tymbolova, Altynay; Kolumbaeva, Sholpan; Aitzhanova, Roza; Bodeev, Marat

2016-01-01

The purpose of the study is to analyze the features of monitoring the educational process during students' practical training at schools. We examined a number of methods and techniques of conducting monitoring of educational process as embodied by future teachers' practical training at secondary schools: continuous observation, method of test…

DETERMINATION OF ECOLOGICALLY RELEVANT PHARMACEUTICALS AND THEIR SELECTED METABOLITES IN EFFLUENT AND SURFACE WATER USING UPLC/MS/MS

EPA Science Inventory

Objective is to develop analytical methods including SPE and UPLC/MS/MS needed to analyze over 60 human prescription pharamceuticals and metabolites belonging to a multitude of different classes in surface waters and wastewater effluent. The methods will be used in future studies...

Single-cell epigenomics: powerful new methods for understanding gene regulation and cell identity.

PubMed

Clark, Stephen J; Lee, Heather J; Smallwood, Sébastien A; Kelsey, Gavin; Reik, Wolf

2016-04-18

Emerging single-cell epigenomic methods are being developed with the exciting potential to transform our knowledge of gene regulation. Here we review available techniques and future possibilities, arguing that the full potential of single-cell epigenetic studies will be realized through parallel profiling of genomic, transcriptional, and epigenetic information.

Aligning Professional Skills and Active Learning Methods: An Application for Information and Communications Technology Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Llorens, Ariadna; Berbegal-Mirabent, Jasmina; Llinàs-Audet, Xavier

2017-01-01

Engineering education is facing new challenges to effectively provide the appropriate skills to future engineering professionals according to market demands. This study proposes a model based on active learning methods, which is expected to facilitate the acquisition of the professional skills most highly valued in the information and…

Forest fuel reduction: Current methods and future possibilities

Treesearch

Chad Bolding; Bobby Lanford; Loren Kellogg

2003-01-01

Due to recent catastrophic wildfires, forest fuel reduction has become one of the most discussed topics in forest engineering research. Considerable money and resources are being spent in an attempt to seek answers for tough questions. Lack of information, especially concerning mechanical fuel reduction methods, has stemmed several studies. This paper compiles the...

Redundant actuator development study. [flight control systems for supersonic transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryder, D. R.

1973-01-01

Current and past supersonic transport configurations are reviewed to assess redundancy requirements for future airplane control systems. Secondary actuators used in stability augmentation systems will probably be the most critical actuator application and require the highest level of redundancy. Two methods of actuator redundancy mechanization have been recommended for further study. Math models of the recommended systems have been developed for use in future computer simulations. A long range plan has been formulated for actuator hardware development and testing in conjunction with the NASA Flight Simulator for Advanced Aircraft.

Performance of today’s dual energy CT and future multi energy CT in virtual non-contrast imaging and in iodine quantification: A simulation study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faby, Sebastian, E-mail: sebastian.faby@dkfz.de; Kuchenbecker, Stefan; Sawall, Stefan

2015-07-15

Purpose: To study the performance of different dual energy computed tomography (DECT) techniques, which are available today, and future multi energy CT (MECT) employing novel photon counting detectors in an image-based material decomposition task. Methods: The material decomposition performance of different energy-resolved CT acquisition techniques is assessed and compared in a simulation study of virtual non-contrast imaging and iodine quantification. The material-specific images are obtained via a statistically optimal image-based material decomposition. A projection-based maximum likelihood approach was used for comparison with the authors’ image-based method. The different dedicated dual energy CT techniques are simulated employing realistic noise models andmore » x-ray spectra. The authors compare dual source DECT with fast kV switching DECT and the dual layer sandwich detector DECT approach. Subsequent scanning and a subtraction method are studied as well. Further, the authors benchmark future MECT with novel photon counting detectors in a dedicated DECT application against the performance of today’s DECT using a realistic model. Additionally, possible dual source concepts employing photon counting detectors are studied. Results: The DECT comparison study shows that dual source DECT has the best performance, followed by the fast kV switching technique and the sandwich detector approach. Comparing DECT with future MECT, the authors found noticeable material image quality improvements for an ideal photon counting detector; however, a realistic detector model with multiple energy bins predicts a performance on the level of dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Employing photon counting detectors in dual source concepts can improve the performance again above the level of a single realistic photon counting detector and also above the level of dual source DECT. Conclusions: Substantial differences in the performance of today’s DECT approaches were found for the application of virtual non-contrast and iodine imaging. Future MECT with realistic photon counting detectors currently can only perform comparably to dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Dual source concepts with photon counting detectors could be a solution to this problem, promising a better performance.« less

Status and Future Perspectives of Utilizing Big Data in Neurosurgical and Stroke Research

PubMed Central

NISHIMURA, Ataru; NISHIMURA, Kunihiro; KADA, Akiko; IIHARA, Koji

2016-01-01

The management, analysis, and integration of Big Data have received increasing attention in healthcare research as well as in medical bioinformatics. The J-ASPECT study is the first nationwide survey in Japan on the real-world setting of stroke care using data obtained from the diagnosis procedure combination-based payment system. The J-ASPECT study demonstrated a significant association between comprehensive stroke care (CSC) capacity and the hospital volume of stroke interventions in Japan; further, it showed that CSC capabilities were associated with reduced in-hospital mortality rates. Our study aims to create new evidence and insight from ‘real world’ neurosurgical practice and stroke care in Japan using Big Data. The final aim of this study is to develop effective methods to bridge the evidence-practice gap in acute stroke healthcare. In this study, the authors describe the status and future perspectives of the development of a new method of stroke registry as a powerful tool for acute stroke care research. PMID:27680330

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two methodologies are statistically compared and evaluated. The comparison between the historic event generated by the model and the observed event will give information on the realism of the model for this event. The comparison between the delta transformation method and the future simulation will provide information on how the dynamics would affect the precipitation field, as compared to the statistical method.

Improving Research Methods for the Study of Geography and Mental Health: Utilization of Social Networking Data and the ESRI GeoEvent Processor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLaughlin, Courtney L.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this article is to review the literature on geography and mental health, report on a case example using new methods for studying this topic, and provide recommendations for future research. Over 25 years ago, Holley (1988) conducted a review of the literature on geography and mental health and astutely stated, "… it is…

Advancing the research agenda for diagnostic error reduction.

PubMed

Zwaan, Laura; Schiff, Gordon D; Singh, Hardeep

2013-10-01

Diagnostic errors remain an underemphasised and understudied area of patient safety research. We briefly summarise the methods that have been used to conduct research on epidemiology, contributing factors and interventions related to diagnostic error and outline directions for future research. Research methods that have studied epidemiology of diagnostic error provide some estimate on diagnostic error rates. However, there appears to be a large variability in the reported rates due to the heterogeneity of definitions and study methods used. Thus, future methods should focus on obtaining more precise estimates in different settings of care. This would lay the foundation for measuring error rates over time to evaluate improvements. Research methods have studied contributing factors for diagnostic error in both naturalistic and experimental settings. Both approaches have revealed important and complementary information. Newer conceptual models from outside healthcare are needed to advance the depth and rigour of analysis of systems and cognitive insights of causes of error. While the literature has suggested many potentially fruitful interventions for reducing diagnostic errors, most have not been systematically evaluated and/or widely implemented in practice. Research is needed to study promising intervention areas such as enhanced patient involvement in diagnosis, improving diagnosis through the use of electronic tools and identification and reduction of specific diagnostic process 'pitfalls' (eg, failure to conduct appropriate diagnostic evaluation of a breast lump after a 'normal' mammogram). The last decade of research on diagnostic error has made promising steps and laid a foundation for more rigorous methods to advance the field.

Sphygmology of ibn sina, a message for future.

PubMed

Zarshenas, Mohammad M; Abolhassanzadeh, Zohreh; Faridi, Pouya; Mohagheghzadeh, Abdolali

2013-07-01

Sphygmology is a 2000-year-old method that is still used in some traditional medicine systems, mainly Iranian, Chinese and Ayurveda. Ibn Sina is one of the most popular physicians in the history of Sphygmology, who had made great contributions to this method, but few meticulous studies have been made on his concepts. In this article, his standpoints on Pulsology are studied. Ibn Sina has mentioned 10 parameters for pulse palpation, and 13 compound pulses, as well. Besides, some pulse patterns applicable for differentiating similar diseases have been introduced. Nowadays some concepts on pulse patterns, such as pulse change in sleep and pregnancy have been studied; but unfortunately many of the ideas on Pulsology have not yet been examined. Sphygmology, as an accessible and inexpensive means, having a substantial diagnosis yield, has been accepted by the people since its rise, and its development over centuries ago. Although some new instruments have been innovated, which can measure different parameters of pulse, yet sphygmology can be one of the most commonly usable diagnostic methods in future, not only applicable by cardiologists but also by all the physicians.

A comparison of trends in research into home care services in Japan and Korea

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to compare of the research trends for home care services in Japan and the Republic of Korea (Korea). In particular, it was compared as the research design, the method of data collection, and key words by literature review. Methods Original articles on home care services were selected from Japanese and Korean journals published from the year of 2004 to 2008. The articles were classified, and compared in terms of the number of articles per year. Results The research design was quite different. Quantitative research design was dominantly conducted in Korea, qualitative research design was used same level of design in Japan. In particular, outcome study was shown in Korean. Conclusions It is suggested that future collaboration be undertaken to improve the variety of research design and method especially in both countries under the aged society. In addition, it provides information concerning research concepts, which can be applied to optimize future home care services. PMID:23870373

The 1998 Canadian Contraception Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fisher, William A.; Boroditsky, Richard; Bridges, Martha L.

1999-01-01

Describes the 1998 Canadian Contraception Study, a mailed survey which asked women about contraceptive practices past, present, and future (including use of oral contraceptives, condoms, and sterilization); familiarity with and opinion about different contraception methods; and general sexual and reproductive health. The paper also examines…

Juvenile Arrest: A Cross-Cultural Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vermeiren, Robert; Jones, Stephanie M.; Ruchkin, Vladislav; Deboutte, Dirk; Schwab-Stone, Mary

2004-01-01

Background: Cross-national studies describing the psychopathological characteristics of arrested adolescents are virtually non-existent. Such studies are important because they have implications for national policy on arrest, case-management, and future research. Method: To address this issue, self-report surveys administered to representative…

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Future methods in pharmacy practice research.

PubMed

Almarsdottir, A B; Babar, Z U D

2016-06-01

This article describes the current and future practice of pharmacy scenario underpinning and guiding this research and then suggests future directions and strategies for such research. First, it sets the scene by discussing the key drivers which could influence the change in pharmacy practice research. These are demographics, technology and professional standards. Second, deriving from this, it seeks to predict and forecast the future shifts in use of methodologies. Third, new research areas and availability of data impacting on future methods are discussed. These include the impact of aging information technology users on healthcare, understanding and responding to cultural and social disparities, implementing multidisciplinary initiatives to improve health care, medicines optimization and predictive risk analysis, and pharmacy as business and health care institution. Finally, implications of the trends for pharmacy practice research methods are discussed.

Reducing State Communication Anxiety for Public Speakers: An Energy Psychology Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitch, John, III; Schmuldt, Laura; Rudick, Karen L.

2011-01-01

This mixed-method pilot study investigates the efficacy of implementing primordial energy activation and transcendence to address public speaking anxiety. Speech anxiety was significantly reduced from pretest to posttest, as measured by the Communication Anxiety Inventory State. Suggestions for future research, limitations of the current study,…

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Future-Oriented Tweets Predict Lower County-Level HIV Prevalence in the United States

PubMed Central

Ireland, Molly E.; Schwartz, Hansen A.; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

Objective Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower HIV rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Method Over 150 million Tweets mapped to US counties were analyzed using two methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Conclusion Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. PMID:26651466

Fifth-year dental students' visions of leadership-A qualitative study.

PubMed

Taipale, H; Tuononen, T A; Suominen, A L

2018-04-22

Leadership skills are important in dentists' work. Leadership education already in undergraduate curriculum is noteworthy. The aim of this qualitative study was to describe dental students' visions of leadership: how they imagined they end up in leadership position, factors supporting either staying in or leaving the position and their future views. The data were gathered after participants, fifth-year dental students, attended a "Dentist as a Leader" study module. A method of empathy-based stories was utilised. Based on contrasting frame stories, students were divided into two groups and wrote essays about an imagined situation in which they either enjoyed their leadership position ("Stayers") or considered leaving it ("Leavers"). The data were analysed using the content analysis method. The reasons for ending up in a leadership position were similar in the two groups: accidentally drifting into or intentionally heading for it. Factors supporting staying or leaving the leadership position were more diverse and were divided into personal and working community levels. These factors were common and group-specific. Clinical work, personal life and the ability to improve the organisations were common factors. Good working community was a "Stayer"-specific factor. "Leaver"-specific factors included loneliness, stress and lack of public sector resources. Future career plans were similar in both groups emphasising clinical work. After having attended leadership training, dental students were able to describe their future careers and list factors supporting either staying or leaving an imagined leadership position. These factors can be utilised by organisations to develop better working environments for future dentist leaders. By recognising the factors, students themselves are able to plan their future career choices and prepare to become leaders. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) activities in Indonesia: How it's future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdurrahman, Muslim

2017-05-01

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a proven method for increasing oil production in many oil fields in the world. Huge oil remaining in the reservoir after primary and secondary recovery stage are the main reason for developing EOR methods. Approximately of 49.50 billion barrels oil as a candidate for EOR activities in Indonesia. This present study focuses on the chemical EOR activities involved surfactant and polymer. This research based on pertinent information from various resources such as journal papers, conference papers, and report from the government. Based on this information, this paper explain in detail the progress of each project and it shows the potential oil field employ chemical EOR in the near future. Generally, the EOR activities can be categorized into two phases such as preliminary study phase and field implementation phase. In the preliminary study, the activities simply involve experimental and/or simulation works. Following the preliminary is the field implementation phase which can be categorized into three phases such as field trial, pilot project, and full-scale. In fact, several activities have been conducted by Lemigas (government oil and gas research center), Institut Teknologi Bandung, Institut Pertanian Bogor. These activities focused on laboratory and simulation work. Those institutions have been developing the chemical formula collaborating with oil companies for applying the EOR method in their oil fields. Currently, status of chemical EOR activities include 5 oil fields under pilot project and 12 oil fields under field trial. There are 7 oil fields applying surfactant, 4 oil fields by alkaline-surfactant-polymer (ASP), 2 oil fields by polymer, 1 oil field by surfactant polymer (SP), and 1 oil field by caustic. According to this information, we will have insight knowledge about the EOR current activities, the main issues, future activities on chemical EOR in Indonesia. Moreover, this study can became the preliminary information for researchers who interested conducting further research and development on the chemical EOR activities in the near future.

Trend of the research on construction and demolition waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan Hongping, E-mail: hpyuan2005@gmail.com; Shen Liyin, E-mail: bsshen@polyu.edu.hk

2011-04-15

Research interests in addressing construction and demolition (C and D) waste management issues have resulted in a large amount of publications during the last decade. This study demonstrates that there is no systematic examination on the research development in literature in the discipline of C and D waste management. This study presents the latest research trend in the discipline through analyzing the publications from 2000 to 2009 in eight major international journals. The analysis is conducted on the number of papers published annually, main authors' contributions, research methods and data analysis methods adopted, and research topics covered. The results exhibitmore » an increasing research interest in C and D waste management in recent years. Researchers from developed economies have contributed significantly to the development of the research in the discipline. Some developing countries such as Malaysia and China have also been making good efforts in promoting C and D waste management research. The findings from this study also indicate that survey and case study are major methods for data collection, and the data are mostly processed through descriptive analysis. It is anticipated that more future studies on C and D waste management will be led by researchers from developing economies, where construction works will remain their major economic activities. On the other hand, more sophisticated modeling and simulating techniques have been used effectively in a number of studies on C and D waste management research, and this is considered a major methodology for future research in the discipline. C and D waste management will continue to be a hot research topic in the future, in particularly, the importance of human factors in C and D waste management has emerged as a new challenging topic.« less

Trend of the research on construction and demolition waste management.

PubMed

Yuan, Hongping; Shen, Liyin

2011-04-01

Research interests in addressing construction and demolition (C&D) waste management issues have resulted in a large amount of publications during the last decade. This study demonstrates that there is no systematic examination on the research development in literature in the discipline of C&D waste management. This study presents the latest research trend in the discipline through analyzing the publications from 2000 to 2009 in eight major international journals. The analysis is conducted on the number of papers published annually, main authors' contributions, research methods and data analysis methods adopted, and research topics covered. The results exhibit an increasing research interest in C&D waste management in recent years. Researchers from developed economies have contributed significantly to the development of the research in the discipline. Some developing countries such as Malaysia and China have also been making good efforts in promoting C&D waste management research. The findings from this study also indicate that survey and case study are major methods for data collection, and the data are mostly processed through descriptive analysis. It is anticipated that more future studies on C&D waste management will be led by researchers from developing economies, where construction works will remain their major economic activities. On the other hand, more sophisticated modeling and simulating techniques have been used effectively in a number of studies on C&D waste management research, and this is considered a major methodology for future research in the discipline. C&D waste management will continue to be a hot research topic in the future, in particularly, the importance of human factors in C&D waste management has emerged as a new challenging topic. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zentner, Rene D.

The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner…

Future Technology Workshop: A Collaborative Method for the Design of New Learning Technologies and Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vavoula, Giasemi N.; Sharples, Mike

2007-01-01

We describe the future technology workshop (FTW), a method whereby people with everyday knowledge or experience in a specific area of technology use (such as using digital cameras) envision and design the interactions between current and future technology and activity. Through a series of structured workshop sessions, participants collaborate to…

ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

EPA Science Inventory

The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

Traffic Predictive Control: Case Study and Evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-26

This project developed a quantile regression method for predicting future traffic flow at a signalized intersection by combining both historical and real-time data. The algorithm exploits nonlinear correlations in historical measurements and efficien...

Understanding Drug Use Over the Life Course: Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

Hser, Yih-Ing; Hamilton, Alison; Niv, Noosha

2009-01-01

Over the past 20 years, much exciting addiction research has been conducted. Extensive knowledge has been gathered about comorbid issues, particularly mental health disorders, HIV, and criminal justice involvement. Health services addiction research has become increasingly sophisticated, shifting its focus from patients to consider also services, organizations, and financing structures. Furthermore, through several long-term follow-up studies, empirical evidence convincingly demonstrates that drug dependence is not an acute disorder, and is best understood through a life course perspective with an emphasis on chronicity This article highlights three major directions for future addiction research: developing strategies for chronic care (including longitudinal intervention studies), furthering cross-system linkage and coordination, and utilizing innovative methods (e.g., growth curve modeling, longitudinal mixed methods research) to strengthen the evidence base for the life course perspective on drug addiction. PMID:21234276

Current trends in feminist nursing research.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Ok

2010-01-01

Despite an increasing number of feminist studies in nursing, few reviews on current trends in feminist nursing research have been published. This article aims to explore the current trends in feminist nursing research and provide recommendations for future feminist studies in nursing. In multiple database searches, 207 articles were retrieved. These were reviewed based on 5 criteria: (1) epistemological background, (2) research questions, (3) research participants, (4) research methods, and (5) implications for changes. The review indicated that feminist nurse researchers with diverse epistemological backgrounds adopted new research methods to ask new questions; expanded their focus to include differences in ethnicity, class, sexual preference, and disability; and incorporated these diversities among women in a global context in their research. Based on these findings, recommendations for future feminist research in nursing are outlined. Copyright 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Power and spectrally efficient M-ARY QAM schemes for future mobile satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sreenath, K.; Feher, K.

1990-01-01

An effective method to compensate nonlinear phase distortion caused by the mobile amplifier is proposed. As a first step towards the future use of spectrally efficient modulation schemes for mobile satellite applications, we have investigated effects of nonlinearities and the phase compensation method on 16-QAM. The new method provides about 2 dB savings in power for 16-QAM operation with cost effective amplifiers near saturation and thereby promising use of spectrally efficient linear modulation schemes for future mobile satellite applications.

mHealth Series: mHealth project in Zhao County, rural China – Description of objectives, field site and methods

PubMed Central

van Velthoven, Michelle Helena; Li, Ye; Wang, Wei; Du, Xiaozhen; Wu, Qiong; Chen, Li; Majeed, Azeem; Rudan, Igor; Zhang, Yanfeng; Car, Josip

2013-01-01

Background We set up a collaboration between researchers in China and the UK that aimed to explore the use of mHealth in China. This is the first paper in a series of papers on a large mHealth project part of this collaboration. This paper included the aims and objectives of the mHealth project, our field site, and the detailed methods of two studies. Field site The field site for this mHealth project was Zhao County, which lies 280 km south of Beijing in Hebei Province, China. Methods We described the methodology of two studies: (i) a mixed methods study exploring factors influencing sample size calculations for mHealth–based health surveys and (ii) a cross–over study determining validity of an mHealth text messaging data collection tool. The first study used mixed methods, both quantitative and qualitative, including: (i) two surveys with caregivers of young children, (ii) interviews with caregivers, village doctors and participants of the cross–over study, and (iii) researchers’ views. We combined data from caregivers, village doctors and researchers to provide an in–depth understanding of factors influencing sample size calculations for mHealth–based health surveys. The second study, a cross–over study, used a randomised cross–over study design to compare the traditional face–to–face survey method to the new text messaging survey method. We assessed data equivalence (intrarater agreement), the amount of information in responses, reasons for giving different responses, the response rate, characteristics of non–responders, and the error rate. Conclusions This paper described the objectives, field site and methods of a large mHealth project part of a collaboration between researchers in China and the UK. The mixed methods study evaluating factors that influence sample size calculations could help future studies with estimating reliable sample sizes. The cross–over study comparing face–to–face and text message survey data collection could help future studies with developing their mHealth tools. PMID:24363919

Group processing in an undergraduate biology course for preservice teachers: Experiences and attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schellenberger, Lauren Brownback

Group processing is a key principle of cooperative learning in which small groups discuss their strengths and weaknesses and set group goals or norms. However, group processing has not been well-studied at the post-secondary level or from a qualitative or mixed methods perspective. This mixed methods study uses a phenomenological framework to examine the experience of group processing for students in an undergraduate biology course for preservice teachers. The effect of group processing on students' attitudes toward future group work and group processing is also examined. Additionally, this research investigated preservice teachers' plans for incorporating group processing into future lessons. Students primarily experienced group processing as a time to reflect on past performance. Also, students experienced group processing as a time to increase communication among group members and become motivated for future group assignments. Three factors directly influenced students' experiences with group processing: (1) previous experience with group work, (2) instructor interaction, and (3) gender. Survey data indicated that group processing had a slight positive effect on students' attitudes toward future group work and group processing. Participants who were interviewed felt that group processing was an important part of group work and that it had increased their group's effectiveness as well as their ability to work effectively with other people. Participants held positive views on group work prior to engaging in group processing, and group processing did not alter their atittude toward group work. Preservice teachers who were interviewed planned to use group work and a modified group processing protocol in their future classrooms. They also felt that group processing had prepared them for their future professions by modeling effective collaboration and group skills. Based on this research, a new model for group processing has been created which includes extensive instructor interaction and additional group processing sessions. This study offers a new perspective on the phenomenon of group processing and informs science educators and teacher educators on the effective implementation of this important component of small-group learning.

Silent Brain Infarction and Risk of Future Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ajay; Giambrone, Ashley E.; Gialdini, Gino; Finn, Caitlin; Delgado, Diana; Gutierrez, Jose; Wright, Clinton; Beiser, Alexa S.; Seshadri, Sudha; Pandya, Ankur; Kamel, Hooman

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Silent brain infarction (SBI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been proposed as a subclinical risk marker for future symptomatic stroke. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between MRI-defined SBI and future stroke risk. Methods We searched the medical literature to identify cohort studies involving adults with MRI detection of SBI who were subsequently followed for incident clinically-defined stroke. Study data and quality assessment were recorded in duplicate with disagreements in data extraction resolved by a third reader. Strength association between MRI detected SBI and future symptomatic stroke measured by a hazard ratio (HR). Results The meta-analysis included 13 studies (14,764 subjects) with a mean follow-up ranging from 25.7 to 174 months. SBI predicted the occurrence of stroke with a random effects crude relative risk of 2.94 (95% CI 2.24–3.86, P<0.001; Q=39.65, P<0.001). In the eight studies of 10,427 subjects providing HR adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, SBI was an independent predictor of incident stroke (HR 2.08 [95% CI 1.69–2.56, P<0.001]; Q=8.99, P=0.25). In a subgroup analysis pooling 9,483 stroke-free individuals from large population-based studies, SBI was present in ~18% of participants and remained a strong predictor of future stroke (HR 2.06 [95% CI 1.64–2.59], p<0.01). Conclusions SBI is present in approximately one in five stroke-free older adults and is associated with a 2-fold increased risk of future stroke. Future studies of in-depth stroke risk evaluations and intensive prevention measures are warranted in patients with clinically unrecognized radiologically evident brain infarctions. PMID:26888534

Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

Status and future prospects of using numerical methods to study complex flows at High Reynolds numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maccormack, R. W.

1978-01-01

The calculation of flow fields past aircraft configuration at flight Reynolds numbers is considered. Progress in devising accurate and efficient numerical methods, in understanding and modeling the physics of turbulence, and in developing reliable and powerful computer hardware is discussed. Emphasis is placed on efficient solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations.

Work and Family Plans among At-Risk Israeli Adolescents: A Mixed-Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cinamon, Rachel Gali; Rich, Yisrael

2014-01-01

Quantitative methods were used to investigate attributions of importance to work and family roles and anticipated work--family conflict and facilitation among 353 at-risk Israeli male and female adolescents. Qualitative interviews conducted with 26 of the at-risk youth explored future work and family perceptions. Findings indicated that both sexes…

Images of the Retailing Environment: An Example of the Use of the Repertory Grid Methodology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Ray

1974-01-01

A necessary condition for studying cognitive images of environments is an appropriate method to define and measure these. Using a sample of students in Bristol, the Repertory Grid method was used to measure images of the retailing environment. The empirical results are discussed and possible future research is outlined. (BT)

Low level laser therapy in the treatment of oral mucositis in cancer patients: systematic review of literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Sabbagh, Rula Fawzi; Selting, Wayne J.

2016-03-01

Oral mucositis is a debilitating and dose limiting side effect of oncotherapy in cancer patients. Low Level Laser Therapy (LLLT) is a promising new intervention for the treatment of oral mucositis. Aims and objectives: 1. Perform a systematic review of available literature on the therapeutic effect of LLLT on established oral mucositis. 2. Formulate recommendations for future studies based on results of review. Methods: Electronic search oflow level laser therapy in the treatment of oral mucositis was conducted and eligible studies reviewed. Results: Four studies met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. A total of 109 patients were included, 59 of which received LLLT as a therapeutic measure. An overall success rate of 81.4% success rate was reported in regard to OM. Conclusion: The review demonstrated the positive therapeutic effect of LLLT on oral mucositis. However, the need for future studies with standardized reporting of parameters and methods is needed to increase the level of evidence of this intervention.

Reconsidering the methodology of “stress” research in inflammatory bowel disease

PubMed Central

Keefer, Laurie; Keshavarzian, Ali; Mutlu, Ece

2009-01-01

Background and Aims The goals of this paper are: 1) to critically review and analyze the methodology of the studies since 1990 linking stress to inflammatory bowel disease; and 2) to make recommendations for future research in this area of research. Methods Articles were restricted to empirical reports in the English language with human subjects. Eleven empirical articles were able to answer “How is psychological stress related to inflammation and/or the expression or course of inflammatory bowel disease?” Results Studies varied by choice of participant groups, method for classifying disease activity, choice of design, and definition and measurement of stress. Only half of the studies supported the hypothesis that stress affected IBD in some way. Conclusions Current methodological limitations in the stress and gut inflammation research have made it difficult for us to ascertain the role of stress in inflammatory bowel disease. Authors provide a checklist of items to consider when designing future studies. PMID:21172210

Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

2017-04-01

In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit volume is expected to be up to almost eight times larger in the future compared to the historical period (Wolverine, +674%) in the HVT-D scenario, caused by the regime shift. Using the TVT the drought characteristics between the C and D scenarios and between future and historic droughts are more similar. However, when using the TVT, causing factors of future droughts, anomalies in temperature and/or precipitation, can be analysed. This study highlights the different conclusions that may be drawn on future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments depending on methodological choices. They could be used to answer different questions: the TVT for analysing drought processes in the future, the HVT to assess changes between historical and future periods, the constant area conceptualisation to analyse the effect of short term climate variability and the dynamical glacier area to model realistic future discharges in glacierized catchments.

Conceptual framework on the application of biomechanical measurement methods in driving behavior study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanjaya, Kadek Heri; Sya'bana, Yukhi Mustaqim Kusuma

2017-01-01

Research on eco-friendly vehicle development in Indonesia has largely neglected ergonomic study, despite the fact that traffic accidents have resulted in greater economic cost than fuel subsidy. We have performed a biomechanical experiment on human locomotion earlier. In this article, we describe the importance of implementing the biomechanical measurement methods in transportation ergonomic study. The instruments such as electromyogram (EMG), load cell, pressure sensor, and motion analysis methods as well as cross-correlation function analysis were explained, then the possibility of their application in driving behavior study is described. We describe the potentials and challenges of the biomechanical methods concerning the future vehicle development. The methods provide greater advantages in objective and accurate measurement not only in human task performance but also its correlation with vehicle performance.

Teaching Research Methods and Statistics in eLearning Environments: Pedagogy, Practical Examples, and Possible Futures

PubMed Central

Rock, Adam J.; Coventry, William L.; Morgan, Methuen I.; Loi, Natasha M.

2016-01-01

Generally, academic psychologists are mindful of the fact that, for many students, the study of research methods and statistics is anxiety provoking (Gal et al., 1997). Given the ubiquitous and distributed nature of eLearning systems (Nof et al., 2015), teachers of research methods and statistics need to cultivate an understanding of how to effectively use eLearning tools to inspire psychology students to learn. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to discuss critically how using eLearning systems might engage psychology students in research methods and statistics. First, we critically appraise definitions of eLearning. Second, we examine numerous important pedagogical principles associated with effectively teaching research methods and statistics using eLearning systems. Subsequently, we provide practical examples of our own eLearning-based class activities designed to engage psychology students to learn statistical concepts such as Factor Analysis and Discriminant Function Analysis. Finally, we discuss general trends in eLearning and possible futures that are pertinent to teachers of research methods and statistics in psychology. PMID:27014147

Teaching Research Methods and Statistics in eLearning Environments: Pedagogy, Practical Examples, and Possible Futures.

PubMed

Rock, Adam J; Coventry, William L; Morgan, Methuen I; Loi, Natasha M

2016-01-01

Generally, academic psychologists are mindful of the fact that, for many students, the study of research methods and statistics is anxiety provoking (Gal et al., 1997). Given the ubiquitous and distributed nature of eLearning systems (Nof et al., 2015), teachers of research methods and statistics need to cultivate an understanding of how to effectively use eLearning tools to inspire psychology students to learn. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to discuss critically how using eLearning systems might engage psychology students in research methods and statistics. First, we critically appraise definitions of eLearning. Second, we examine numerous important pedagogical principles associated with effectively teaching research methods and statistics using eLearning systems. Subsequently, we provide practical examples of our own eLearning-based class activities designed to engage psychology students to learn statistical concepts such as Factor Analysis and Discriminant Function Analysis. Finally, we discuss general trends in eLearning and possible futures that are pertinent to teachers of research methods and statistics in psychology.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Synthesis in land change science: methodological patterns, challenges, and guidelines.

PubMed

Magliocca, Nicholas R; Rudel, Thomas K; Verburg, Peter H; McConnell, William J; Mertz, Ole; Gerstner, Katharina; Heinimann, Andreas; Ellis, Erle C

Global and regional economic and environmental changes are increasingly influencing local land-use, livelihoods, and ecosystems. At the same time, cumulative local land changes are driving global and regional changes in biodiversity and the environment. To understand the causes and consequences of these changes, land change science (LCS) draws on a wide array synthetic and meta-study techniques to generate global and regional knowledge from local case studies of land change. Here, we review the characteristics and applications of synthesis methods in LCS and assess the current state of synthetic research based on a meta-analysis of synthesis studies from 1995 to 2012. Publication of synthesis research is accelerating, with a clear trend toward increasingly sophisticated and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis. Detailed trends in synthesis objectives, methods, and land change phenomena and world regions most commonly studied are presented. Significant challenges to successful synthesis research in LCS are also identified, including issues of interpretability and comparability across case-studies and the limits of and biases in the geographic coverage of case studies. Nevertheless, synthesis methods based on local case studies will remain essential for generating systematic global and regional understanding of local land change for the foreseeable future, and multiple opportunities exist to accelerate and enhance the reliability of synthetic LCS research in the future. Demand for global and regional knowledge generation will continue to grow to support adaptation and mitigation policies consistent with both the local realities and regional and global environmental and economic contexts of land change.

Critique of a practice-based pilot study in chiropractic practices in Western Australia.

PubMed

Amorin-Woods, Lyndon G; Parkin-Smith, Gregory F; Nedkoff, Lee; Fisher, Colleen

2016-01-01

Practice-based data collection can offer insight into the nature of chiropractic practice and contribute to resolving the conundrum of the chiropractic profession's role in contemporary healthcare, subsequently informing care service policy. However, there is little formal data available about chiropractic practice to inform decision-makers about the nature and role of chiropractic within the context of a modern multidisciplinary healthcare context in Australia, particularly at a local and regional level. This was a mixed-methods data transformation model (qualitative to quantitative) pilot study the purpose of which was to provide a critique of the research design and collect data from a selected sample of chiropractic practices in Western Australia, with a view to offer recommendations related to the design, feasibility and implementation of a future confirmatory study. A narrative critique of the research methods of this pilot study is offered in this paper covering: (a) practice and patient recruitment, (b) enrollment of patients, (c) data collection methods, (d) acceptability of the study methods, (e) sample size calculations, and (f) design critique. The result of this critique provides a sensible sample size estimate and recommendations as to the design and implementation of a future confirmatory study. Furthermore, we believe that a confirmatory study is not only feasible, but indeed necessary, with a view to offer meaningful insight into chiropractic practice in Western Australia. ACTRN12616000434493 Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR). Registered 5 April 2016. First participant enrolled 01 July 2014, retrospectively registered.

Neuroimaging for psychotherapy research: Current trends

PubMed Central

WEINGARTEN, CAROL P.; STRAUMAN, TIMOTHY J.

2014-01-01

Objective This article reviews neuroimaging studies that inform psychotherapy research. An introduction to neuroimaging methods is provided as background for the increasingly sophisticated breadth of methods and findings appearing in psychotherapy research. Method We compiled and assessed a comprehensive list of neuroimaging studies of psychotherapy outcome, along with selected examples of other types of studies that also are relevant to psychotherapy research. We emphasized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) since it is the dominant neuroimaging modality in psychological research. Results We summarize findings from neuroimaging studies of psychotherapy outcome, including treatment for depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and schizophrenia. Conclusions The increasing use of neuroimaging methods in the study of psychotherapy continues to refine our understanding of both outcome and process. We suggest possible directions for future neuroimaging studies in psychotherapy research. PMID:24527694

An Adjoint-Based Analysis of the Sampling Footprints of Tall Tower, Aircraft and Potential Future Lidar Observations of CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrews, Arlyn; Kawa, Randy; Zhu, Zhengxin; Burris, John; Abshire, Jim

2004-01-01

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future CO2 levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an 'inverse problem', where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from longterm surface and aircraft monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. We have recently developed an adjoint for the GSFC 3-D Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model (PCTM). Here, we will present results from a PCTM Adjoint study comparing the sampling footprints of tall tower, aircraft and potential future lidar observations of CO2. The vertical resolution and extent of the profiles and the observation frequency will be considered for several sites in North America.

Internet driver education study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-05-01

Incorporating technology through online courses, including drivers education (DE), is the wave of the future for : learning. While many states allow online DE as an accepted method of learning, Wisconsin currently only allows it on a : limited bas...

The opinion of Iranian students about the society's perception on using surrogacy as an infertility treatment in the future community.

PubMed

Salehi, Kobra; Shakour, Mahsa; Pashaei Sabet, Fatemeh; Alizadeh, Shiva

2015-03-01

Surrogacy is one of the challengeable treatments for infertility; therefore, it seems necessary to learn the attitutude of people toward it, especially the opinion of those who are working in infertility treatment. Students studying midwifery, medicine, psychology and law are involved in this process to various degrees. The aim of this study was to investigate the students' opinions about the perception of the society on using surrogacy. This study was a descriptive cross-sectional survey. The sample of this study included 200 students of the Isfahan University and Isfahan University of Medical Sciences from the following courses: Midwifery, Medicine, Psychology and Law. Since the number of students in different discipline was not equal, we therefore used quota sampling. The data collection instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire. The questionnaire included questions on their knowledge, attitude and surrogacy acceptance in the future in Iran. The students of the medical course were mostly in the category "strongly agree" and "agree" with surrogacy (43 students which constitute 79.6%), then, midwifery students (15 students which constitute 78.9%) and finally, the students of other courses agreed less with this method. According to chi-square test, there was no significant difference between attitudes of students (P=0.08). Individuals mostly assert their acceptance of this method through "increasing tendency to this method in the future" (77.1%). Students in this study had a positive attitude toward surrogacy and they accepted it as a norm; despite this, it is essential to make some changes within cultures to improve the situation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metamethod study of qualitative psychotherapy research on clients' experiences: Review and recommendations.

PubMed

Levitt, Heidi M; Pomerville, Andrew; Surace, Francisco I; Grabowski, Lauren M

2017-11-01

A metamethod study is a qualitative meta-analysis focused upon the methods and procedures used in a given research domain. These studies are rare in psychological research. They permit both the documentation of the informal standards within a field of research and recommendations for future work in that area. This paper presents a metamethod analysis of a substantial body of qualitative research that focused on clients' experiences in psychotherapy (109 studies). This review examined the ways that methodological integrity has been established across qualitative research methods. It identified the numbers of participants recruited and the form of data collection used (e.g., semistructured interviews, diaries). As well, it examined the types of checks employed to increase methodological integrity, such as participant counts, saturation, reflexivity techniques, participant feedback, or consensus and auditing processes. Central findings indicated that the researchers quite flexibly integrated procedures associated with one method into studies using other methods in order to strengthen their rigor. It appeared normative to adjust procedures to advance methodological integrity. These findings encourage manuscript reviewers to assess the function of procedures within a study rather than to require researchers to adhere to the set of procedures associated with a method. In addition, when epistemological approaches were mentioned they were overwhelmingly constructivist in nature, despite the increasing use of procedures traditionally associated with objectivist perspectives. It is recommended that future researchers do more to explicitly describe the functions of their procedures so that they are coherently situated within the epistemological approaches in use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Intelligent methods for the process parameter determination of plastic injection molding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Huang; Zhang, Yun; Zhou, Xundao; Li, Dequn

2018-03-01

Injection molding is one of the most widely used material processing methods in producing plastic products with complex geometries and high precision. The determination of process parameters is important in obtaining qualified products and maintaining product quality. This article reviews the recent studies and developments of the intelligent methods applied in the process parameter determination of injection molding. These intelligent methods are classified into three categories: Case-based reasoning methods, expert system- based methods, and data fitting and optimization methods. A framework of process parameter determination is proposed after comprehensive discussions. Finally, the conclusions and future research topics are discussed.

Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lois, Erasmia; Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q.

There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted,more » reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.« less

Positive Socialization Mechanisms in Secure and Insecure Parent-Child Dyads: Two Longitudinal Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kochanska, Grazyna; Woodard, Jarilyn; Kim, Sanghag; Koenig, Jamie L.; Yoon, Jeung Eun; Barry, Robin A.

2010-01-01

Background: Implications of early attachment have been extensively studied, but little is known about its long-term indirect sequelae, where early security organization moderates future parent-child relationships, serving as a catalyst for adaptive and maladaptive processes. Two longitudinal multi-trait multi-method studies examined whether early…

Measuring Future Time Perspective across Adulthood: Development and Evaluation of a Brief Multidimensional Questionnaire

PubMed Central

Brothers, Allyson; Chui, Helena; Diehl, Manfred

2014-01-01

Purpose of the Study: Despite calls for the consideration of future time perspective (FTP) as a multidimensional construct, mostly unidimensional measurement instruments have been used. This study had two objectives: (a) to develop a brief multidimensional questionnaire for assessing FTP in adulthood and evaluate its psychometric properties; and (b) to examine age associations and age-group differences of the dimensions of FTP. Design and Methods: Data were collected from 625 community-residing adults between the ages of 18 and 93, representing young, middle-aged, and older adults. The psychometric evaluation involved exploratory factor analyses (EFA) and confirmatory FA (CFA), reliability and validity analyses, and measurement invariance testing. Zero-order and partial correlations were used to examine the association of the dimensions of FTP with age, and multivariate analysis of variance was used to examine age-group differences. Results: EFA and CFA supported a three-factor solution: Future as Open, Future as Limited, and Future as Ambiguous. Metric measurement invariance for this factor structure was confirmed across the three age groups. Reliability and validity analyses provided evidence of sound psychometric properties of the brief questionnaire. Age was negatively associated with Future as Open and positively associated with Future as Limited. Young adults exhibited significantly greater ambiguity toward the future than middle-aged or older adults. Implications: This study provides evidence in support of the psychometric properties of a new brief multidimensional FTP scale. It also provides evidence for a pattern of age associations and age-group differences consistent with life-span developmental theory. PMID:25063938

Do savings mediate changes in adolescents’ future orientation and health-related outcomes? Findings from randomized experiment in Uganda

PubMed Central

Karimli, Leyla; Ssewamala, Fred M.

2015-01-01

Purpose This present study tests the proposition that an economic strengthening intervention for families caring for AIDS-orphaned adolescents would positively affect adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes through increased asset-accumulation (in this case, by increasing family savings). Methods Using longitudinal data from the cluster-randomized experiment we ran generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with robust standard errors clustering on individual observations. To examine whether family savings mediate the effect of the intervention on adolescents’ future orientation and psychosocial outcomes, analyses were conducted in three steps: (1) testing the effect of intervention on mediator; (2) testing the effect of mediator on outcomes, controlling for the intervention; and (3) testing the significance of mediating effect using Sobel-Goodman method. Asymmetric confidence intervals for mediated effect were obtained through bootstrapping—to address the assumption of normal distribution. Results Results indicate that participation in a matched Child Savings Account program improved adolescents’ future orientation and psychosocial outcomes by reducing hopelessness, enhancing self-concept, and improving adolescents’ confidence about their educational plans. However, the positive intervention effect on adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes was not transmitted through saving. In other words, participation in the matched Child Savings Account program improved adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes regardless of its impact on reported savings. Conclusions Further research is necessary to understand exactly how participation in economic strengthening interventions, for example, those that employ matched Child Savings Accounts, shape adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes: what, if not savings, transmits the treatment effect and how? PMID:26271162

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

A report on the AANA Manpower Study--Part I.

PubMed

Graham-Moore, B E

1982-06-01

Future reports to be released by the Center for Cybernetic Studies will present the occupational structure of the nurse anesthetist and will combine demographic data with a task analysis of the profession. This report has selected some variables of interest and analyzed them. Most important, however, is the intended flexibility that this data based information system should offer. For example, human resource modeling will forecast the number of nurse anesthetists who remain in or leave a given region. This modeling capability could aid schools of anesthesia in their curriculum planning by showing which tasks are predominant in a given location. It could also aid members by providing pertinent employment information. Future reports will present a scenario to exemplify how a data based information system can derive a series of human resource models. The purpose of such an exercise is to develop for the AANA the planning methods some of the larger corporations are already utilizing. The difference, of course, is that these planning methods could be used by the professional association of nurse anesthetists for the advantage of its members. This article has presented a short review of the Manpower Study. We welcome your ideas and suggestions to aid us in making future analyses of this information.

Methods, History, Selected Findings, and Recommendations from the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study, 1980-85

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teddlie, Charles; Stringfield, Samuel; Desselle, Stephanie

2017-01-01

An overview of the first five years of the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study (LSES) is described. The longitudinal nature of the study has allowed the research team to develop an evolving methodology, one benefiting from prior external studies as well as prior phases of LSES. Practical implications and recommendations for future research are…

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

PubMed Central

Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

PubMed

Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.

[The Importance of Hospital Hygiene: Findings of a German Nationwide Survey].

PubMed

Haking, Dennis

2017-04-01

Aim of the study: The German legislature reacted to the increasing number of nosocomial infections with a set of laws to strengthen hospital hygiene. The aim of the study is to measure the current and future importance of hospital hygiene in Germany. Methods: CEOs and hygiene staff from German hospitals took part in a survey on 13 items regarding the current and future importance of hospital hygiene. Statistical analyses were conducted to identify significances regarding the professional groups. Results: The results of the study show that hospital hygiene is currently of high importance and will be rising in the future. Hospital hygiene has a high economic impact, especially as a competitive factor. The patients' fear to suffer from a nosocomial infection, especially caused by multi-resistant bacteria, is countered with intensive educational work. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that the legislators' efforts are taken note of in German hospitals and the future strategic impact of hospital hygiene in a pay-for-performance reimbursement system has become clear. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

PubMed

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

Simulation of Liquid Droplet in Air and on a Solid Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Launglucknavalai, Kevin

Although multiphase gas and liquid phenomena occurs widely in engineering problems, many aspects of multiphase interaction like within droplet dynamics are still not quantified. This study aims to qualify the Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) Interparticle Potential multiphase computational method in order to build a foundation for future multiphase research. This study consists of two overall sections. The first section in Chapter 2 focuses on understanding the LBM method and Interparticle Potential model. It outlines the LBM method and how it relates to macroscopic fluid dynamics. The standard form of LBM is obtained. The perturbation solution obtaining the Navier-Stokes equations from the LBM equation is presented. Finally, the Interparticle Potential model is incorporated into the numerical LBM method. The second section in Chapter 3 presents the verification and validation cases to confirm the behavior of the single-phase and multiphase LBM models. Experimental and analytical results are used briefly to compare with numerical results when possible using Poiseuille channel flow and flow over a cylinder. While presenting the numerical results, practical considerations like converting LBM scale variables to physical scale variables are considered. Multiphase results are verified using Laplaces law and artificial behaviors of the model are explored. In this study, a better understanding of the LBM method and Interparticle Potential model is gained. This allows the numerical method to be used for comparison with experimental results in the future and provides a better understanding of multiphase physics overall.

Participatory Design in Gerontechnology: A Systematic Literature Review.

PubMed

Merkel, Sebastian; Kucharski, Alexander

2018-05-19

Participatory design (PD) is widely used within gerontechnology but there is no common understanding about which methods are used for what purposes. This review aims to examine what different forms of PD exist in the field of gerontechnology and how these can be categorized. We conducted a systematic literature review covering several databases. The search strategy was based on 3 elements: (1) participatory methods and approaches with (2) older persons aiming at developing (3) technology for older people. Our final review included 26 studies representing a variety of technologies designed/developed and methods/instruments applied. According to the technologies, the publications reviewed can be categorized in 3 groups: Studies that (1) use already existing technology with the aim to find new ways of use; (2) aim at creating new devices; (3) test and/or modify prototypes. The implementation of PD depends on the questions: Why a participatory approach is applied, who is involved as future user(s), when those future users are involved, and how they are incorporated into the innovation process. There are multiple ways, methods, and instruments to integrate users into the innovation process. Which methods should be applied, depends on the context. However, most studies do not evaluate if participatory approaches will lead to a better acceptance and/or use of the co-developed products. Therefore, participatory design should follow a comprehensive strategy, starting with the users' needs and ending with an evaluation if the applied methods have led to better results.

Specialist English as a foreign language for European public health: evaluation of competencies and needs among Polish and Lithuanian students.

PubMed

Sumskas, Linas; Czabanowska, Katarzyna; Bruneviciūte, Raimonda; Kregzdyte, Rima; Krikstaponyte, Zita; Ziomkiewicz, Anna

2010-01-01

Foreign languages are becoming an essential prerequisite for a successful carrier among all professions including public health professionals in many countries. The expanding role of English as a mode of communication allows for university graduates to project and to seek their career in English-speaking countries. The present study was carried out in the framework of EU Leonardo da Vinci project "Specialist English as a foreign language for European public health." The study aimed to get a deeper insight how the English language is perceived as a foreign language, by Polish and Lithuanian public health students, what is level of their language competence, which level of English proficiency they expect to use in future. MATERIAL AND METHODS. A total of 246 respondents completed the special questionnaires in autumn semester in 2005. A questionnaire form was developed by the international project team. For evaluation of English competences, the Language Passport (Common European Framework of Reference for Languages of Council of Europe) was applied. RESULTS. Current self-rated proficiency of the English language was at the same level for Lithuanian (3.47+/-1.14) and Polish (3.31+/-0.83) respondents (P>0.05). Majority of respondents (88.6% of Lithuanian and 87.8% of Polish) reported using the English language for their current studies. Respondents reported a significant increase in necessity for higher level of English proficiency in future: mean scores provided by respondents changed from B1 level to B2 level. Respondents gave priority to less formal and practice-based interactive English teaching methods (going abroad, contacts with native speakers) in comparison with theory-oriented methods of learning (self-studying, Internet courses). CONCLUSIONS. Similar levels of English language in all five areas of language skills were established in Polish and Lithuanian university students. Respondents gave more priorities to less formal and practice-based interactive English teaching methods (going abroad, contacts with native speakers) in comparison with theory-oriented or classroom-based methods of learning (self-studying, Internet courses). Survey showed a growing interest of students in improving English language in the future in Poland and Lithuania.

Attitude of A Sample of Iranian Researchers toward The Future of Stem Cell Research.

PubMed

Lotfipanah, Mahdi; Azadeh, Fereydoon; Totonchi, Mehdi; Omani-Samani, Reza

2018-10-01

Stem cells that have unlimited proliferation potential as well as differentiation potency are considered to be a promising future treatment method for incurable diseases. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the future trend of stem cell researches from researchers' viewpoints. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study on researchers involved in stem cell research at Royan Institute. We designed a questionnaire using a qualitative study based on expert opinion and a literature review. Content validity was performed using three rounds of the Delphi method with experts. Face validity was undertaken by a Persian literature expert and a graphics designer. The questionnaire was distributed among 150 researchers involved in stem cell studies in Royan Institute biology laboratories. We collected 138 completed questionnaires. The mean age of participants was 31.13 ± 5.8 years; most (60.9%) were females. Participants (76.1%) considered the budget to be the most important issue in stem cell research, 79.7% needed financial support from the government, and 77.5% felt that charities could contribute substantially to stem cell research. A total of 90.6% of participants stated that stem cells should lead to commercial usage which could support future researches (86.2%). The aim of stem cell research was stipulated as increasing health status of the society according to 92.8% of the participants. At present, among cell types, importance was attached to cord blood and adult stem cells. Researchers emphasized the importance of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) rather than hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs, 57.73%). The prime priorities were given to cancer so that stem cell research could be directed to sphere stem cell research whereas the least preference was given to skin research. Regenerative medicine is considered the future of stem cell research with emphasis on application of these cells, especially in cancer treatment. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.

Human-Centered Technologies and Procedures for Future Air Traffic Management: A Preliminary Overview of 1996 Studies and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Philip; McCoy, Elaine; Denning, Rebecca; Woods, David; Sarter, Nadine; Dekker, Sidney; Billings, Charles

1996-01-01

In this project, we have been exploring the use of a general methodology to predict the impact of future Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts and technologies. In applying this methodology, our emphasis has been on the importance of modeling coordination and cooperation among the multiple agents within this system, and on understanding how the interactions among these agents will be influenced as new roles, responsibilities, procedures and technologies are introduced. To accomplish this, we have been collecting data on performance under the current air traffic management system, trying to identify critical problem areas and looking for exemplars suggestive of general approaches for solving such problems. Based on the results of these field studies, we have developed a set of scenarios centered around potential future system designs, and have conducted studies using these scenarios involving a total 40 controllers, dispatchers, pilots and traffic managers. The purpose of this report is to provide NASA with an early summary of the major recommendations that have resulted from our research under the AATT Program thus far. Recommendations 1-3 deal with general approaches that our findings suggest should be incorporated in future AATT Program activities, while Recommendations 4-11 identify some specific topics and technologies that merit research and development activities. Detailed technical reports containing supporting data, as well as the results of our still ongoing analyses, will be provided at a later date. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 1 briefly describes the general design philosophy supported by our empirical studies. Section 2 presents the research methods we have used for identifying requirements for future system designs and for evaluating alternative design solutions. Section 3 discusses preliminary results from an initial set of investigations that we have conducted using these research methods. Section 4 then provides an overall summary. An outline of the rest of this preliminary project summary is provided on the following page.

Valuing the visual impact of wind farms: A calculus method for synthesizing choice experiments studies.

PubMed

Wen, Cheng; Dallimer, Martin; Carver, Steve; Ziv, Guy

2018-05-06

Despite the great potential of mitigating carbon emission, development of wind farms is often opposed by local communities due to the visual impact on landscape. A growing number of studies have applied nonmarket valuation methods like Choice Experiments (CE) to value the visual impact by eliciting respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA) for hypothetical wind farms through survey questions. Several meta-analyses have been found in the literature to synthesize results from different valuation studies, but they have various limitations related to the use of the prevailing multivariate meta-regression analysis. In this paper, we propose a new meta-analysis method to establish general functions for the relationships between the estimated WTP or WTA and three wind farm attributes, namely the distance to residential/coastal areas, the number of turbines and turbine height. This method involves establishing WTA or WTP functions for individual studies, fitting the average derivative functions and deriving the general integral functions of WTP or WTA against wind farm attributes. Results indicate that respondents in different studies consistently showed increasing WTP for moving wind farms to greater distances, which can be fitted by non-linear (natural logarithm) functions. However, divergent preferences for the number of turbines and turbine height were found in different studies. We argue that the new analysis method proposed in this paper is an alternative to the mainstream multivariate meta-regression analysis for synthesizing CE studies and the general integral functions of WTP or WTA against wind farm attributes are useful for future spatial modelling and benefit transfer studies. We also suggest that future multivariate meta-analyses should include non-linear components in the regression functions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE PAGES

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

2016-06-16

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Comparison of BOD results obtained by dilution and manometric methods in sanitary landfill leachates.

PubMed

Ceçen, F; Yangin, C

2000-12-01

This study examined the determination of BOD in landfill leachates by dilution (D-method) and manometric methods (M-method). The differences in results were discussed based on statistical tests. The effects of sample dilution, seeding, chloride and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) level were examined. The M-method was found to be more sensitive to increases in chloride and TKN concentrations. However, in the M-method the positive interference of nitrogenous BOD (NBOD) to carbonaceous BOD (CBOD) was more successfully prevented. The BOD rate constant k and the ultimate BOD (BODu) were estimated by non-linear regression. With the M-method these parameters could be more reliably estimated than the D-method. Suggestions were made for BOD analyses in landfill leachates in future studies.

Structural Analysis Methods for Structural Health Management of Future Aerospace Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tessler, Alexander

2007-01-01

Two finite element based computational methods, Smoothing Element Analysis (SEA) and the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM), are reviewed, and examples of their use for structural health monitoring are discussed. Due to their versatility, robustness, and computational efficiency, the methods are well suited for real-time structural health monitoring of future space vehicles, large space structures, and habitats. The methods may be effectively employed to enable real-time processing of sensing information, specifically for identifying three-dimensional deformed structural shapes as well as the internal loads. In addition, they may be used in conjunction with evolutionary algorithms to design optimally distributed sensors. These computational tools have demonstrated substantial promise for utilization in future Structural Health Management (SHM) systems.

A scoping review of nursing workforce planning and forecasting research.

PubMed

Squires, Allison; Jylhä, Virpi; Jun, Jin; Ensio, Anneli; Kinnunen, Juha

2017-11-01

This study will critically evaluate forecasting models and their content in workforce planning policies for nursing professionals and to highlight the strengths and the weaknesses of existing approaches. Although macro-level nursing workforce issues may not be the first thing that many nurse managers consider in daily operations, the current and impending nursing shortage in many countries makes nursing specific models for workforce forecasting important. A scoping review was conducted using a directed and summative content analysis approach to capture supply and demand analytic methods of nurse workforce planning and forecasting. The literature on nurse workforce forecasting studies published in peer-reviewed journals as well as in grey literature was included in the scoping review. Thirty six studies met the inclusion criteria, with the majority coming from the USA. Forecasting methods were biased towards service utilization analyses and were not consistent across studies. Current methods for nurse workforce forecasting are inconsistent and have not accounted sufficiently for socioeconomic and political factors that can influence workforce projections. Additional studies examining past trends are needed to improve future modelling. Accurate nursing workforce forecasting can help nurse managers, administrators and policy makers to understand the supply and demand of the workforce to prepare and maintain an adequate and competent current and future workforce. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Research on environmental impact of water-based fire extinguishing agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuai

2018-02-01

This paper offers current status of application of water-based fire extinguishing agents, the environmental and research considerations of the need for the study of toxicity research. This paper also offers systematic review of test methods of toxicity and environmental impact of water-based fire extinguishing agents currently available, illustrate the main requirements and relevant test methods, and offer some research findings for future research considerations. The paper also offers limitations of current study.

The state of the art and future opportunities for using longitudinal n-of-1 methods in health behaviour research: a systematic literature overview.

PubMed

McDonald, Suzanne; Quinn, Francis; Vieira, Rute; O'Brien, Nicola; White, Martin; Johnston, Derek W; Sniehotta, Falko F

2017-12-01

n-of-1 studies test hypotheses within individuals based on repeated measurement of variables within the individual over time. Intra-individual effects may differ from those found in between-participant studies. Using examples from a systematic review of n-of-1 studies in health behaviour research, this article provides a state of the art overview of the use of n-of-1 methods, organised according to key methodological considerations related to n-of-1 design and analysis, and describes future challenges and opportunities. A comprehensive search strategy (PROSPERO:CRD42014007258) was used to identify articles published between 2000 and 2016, reporting observational or interventional n-of-1 studies with health behaviour outcomes. Thirty-nine articles were identified which reported on n-of-1 observational designs and a range of n-of-1 interventional designs, including AB, ABA, ABABA, alternating treatments, n-of-1 randomised controlled trial, multiple baseline and changing criterion designs. Behaviours measured included treatment adherence, physical activity, drug/alcohol use, sleep, smoking and eating behaviour. Descriptive, visual or statistical analyses were used. We identify scope and opportunities for using n-of-1 methods to answer key questions in health behaviour research. n-of-1 methods provide the tools needed to help advance theoretical knowledge and personalise/tailor health behaviour interventions to individuals.

[Enhancing development of children at risk and their parents by video counselling according to the Marte Meo method].

PubMed

Bünder, Peter

2011-01-01

Marte Meo is a low-intensity programme of counselling parents and other persons significantly involved with children which aims to foster parenting capacity and facilitate child development. The article describes a preliminary pilot study with the aim of identifying variables for the future evaluation of efficacy and effectiveness of the Marte Meo method.

Enhancing Learning Outcomes through New E-Textbooks: A Desirable Combination of Presentation Methods and Concept Maps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Kuo-Hsiang; Ho, Chun-Heng

2014-01-01

It is possible that e-textbook readers and tablet PC's will become mainstream reading devices in the future. However, knowledge about instructional design in this field of learning sciences is inadequate. This study aimed to analyse how two factors, that is, presentation methods and concept maps, interact with cognitive load and learning…

Research in the Rehabilitation Unit Presents Challenges to Nurse Researchers.

PubMed

Rose, Mary Ann; Neil, Janice A; Castles, Ricky; Pokorny, Marie; Watkins, Frank; Hand, Mark

Gathering data from patients on a rehabilitation unit poses challenges for nurse researchers. A case study is presented that describes ways the researchers attempted to meet these challenges while conducting their study. The case study presents the approaches that the investigators took to undertake the study and then described the ways in which these approaches could have been improved. Their successes and failures are described. Suggestions are made for future investigators. Clinical nursing research is required to develop an evidence base for practice in the rehabilitation unit. An analysis of the challenges and possible methods of overcoming these challenges is useful to both future investigators and nurses in practice to insure that studies can be carried out effectively.

A Review of Biological Agent Sampling Methods and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report This study was conducted to evaluate current sampling and analytical capabilities, from a time and resource perspective, for a large-scale biological contamination incident. The analysis will be useful for strategically directing future research investment.

Control of black walnut root rot diseases in nurseries.

Treesearch

Kenneth J. Jr. Kessler

1982-01-01

Current nursery methods used to control black walnut root rot diseases are considered in terms of integrated pest management. Suggestions for future root rot control research studies and procedures to minimize root rot problems are provided.

A research agenda on patient safety in primary care. Recommendations by the LINNEAUS collaboration on patient safety in primary care

PubMed Central

Verstappen, Wim; Gaal, Sander; Bowie, Paul; Parker, Diane; Lainer, Miriam; Valderas, Jose M.; Wensing, Michel; Esmail, Aneez

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Healthcare can cause avoidable serious harm to patients. Primary care is not an exception, and the relative lack of research in this area lends urgency to a better understanding of patient safety, the future research agenda and the development of primary care oriented safety programmes. Objective: To outline a research agenda for patient safety improvement in primary care in Europe and beyond. Methods: The LINNEAUS collaboration partners analysed existing research on epidemiology and classification of errors, diagnostic and medication errors, safety culture, and learning for and improving patient safety. We discussed ideas for future research in several meetings, workshops and congresses with LINNEAUS collaboration partners, practising GPs, researchers in this field, and policy makers. Results: This paper summarizes and integrates the outcomes of the LINNEAUS collaboration on patient safety in primary care. It proposes a research agenda on improvement strategies for patient safety in primary care. In addition, it provides background information to help to connect research in this field with practicing GPs and other healthcare workers in primary care. Conclusion: Future research studies should target specific primary care domains, using prospective methods and innovative methods such as patient involvement. PMID:26339841

Forecasting quantities of disused household CRT appliances--a regional case study approach and its application to Baden-Württemberg.

PubMed

Walk, Wolfgang

2009-02-01

Due to special requirements regarding logistics and recycling, disused cathode ray tube (CRT) appliances are handled in some countries as a separate waste fraction. This article presents a forecast of future household waste CRT quantities based on the past and present equipment of households with television sets and computer monitors. Additional aspects taken into consideration are the product life time distribution and the ongoing change in display technology. Although CRT technology is fading out, the findings of this forecast show that quantities of waste CRT appliances will not decrease before 2012 in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. The results of this regional case study are not quantitatively transferable without further analysis. The method provided allows analysts to consider how the time shift between production and discard could impact recycling options, and the method could be valuable for future similar analyses elsewhere.

Exploring barriers and opportunities in adopting crowdsourcing based new product development in manufacturing SMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Shengfeng; Van der Velde, David; Chatzakis, Emmanouil; McStea, Terry; Smith, Neil

2016-10-01

Crowdsourcing is an innovative business practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content or even funds by soliciting contributions from a large group of people (the `Crowd'). The potential benefits of utilizing crowdsourcing in product design are well-documented, but little research exists on what are the barriers and opportunities in adopting crowdsourcing in new product development (NPD) of manufacturing SMEs. In order to answer the above questions, a Proof of Market study is carried out on crowdsourcing-based product design under an Innovate UK funded Smart project, which aims at identifying the needs, challenges and future development opportunities associated with adopting crowdsourcing strategies for NPD. The research findings from this study are reported here and can be used to guide future development of crowdsourcing-based collaborative design methods and tools and provide some practical references for industry to adopt this new and emerging collaborative design method in their business.

Current and Future Clinical Applications of High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound (HIFU) for Pancreatic Cancer.

PubMed

Jang, Hyun Joo; Lee, Jae-Young; Lee, Don-Haeng; Kim, Won-Hong; Hwang, Joo Ha

2010-09-01

High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is a novel therapeutic modality that permits noninvasive treatment of various benign and malignant solid tumors, including prostatic cancer, uterine fibroids, hepatic tumors, renal tumors, breast cancers, and pancreatic cancers. Several preclinical and clinical studies have investigated the safety and efficacy of HIFU for treating solid tumors, including pancreatic cancer. The results of nonrandomized studies of HIFU therapy in patients with pancreatic cancer have suggested that HIFU treatment can effectively alleviate cancer-related pain without any significant complications. This noninvasive method of delivering ultrasound energy into the body has recently been evolving from a method for purely thermal ablation to harnessing the mechanical effects of HIFU to induce a systemic immune response and to enhance targeted drug delivery. This review provides a brief overview of HIFU, describes current clinical applications of HIFU for pancreatic cancer, and discusses future applications and challenges.

Current and Future Clinical Applications of High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound (HIFU) for Pancreatic Cancer

PubMed Central

Jang, Hyun Joo; Lee, Jae-Young; Lee, Don-Haeng; Kim, Won-Hong

2010-01-01

High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is a novel therapeutic modality that permits noninvasive treatment of various benign and malignant solid tumors, including prostatic cancer, uterine fibroids, hepatic tumors, renal tumors, breast cancers, and pancreatic cancers. Several preclinical and clinical studies have investigated the safety and efficacy of HIFU for treating solid tumors, including pancreatic cancer. The results of nonrandomized studies of HIFU therapy in patients with pancreatic cancer have suggested that HIFU treatment can effectively alleviate cancer-related pain without any significant complications. This noninvasive method of delivering ultrasound energy into the body has recently been evolving from a method for purely thermal ablation to harnessing the mechanical effects of HIFU to induce a systemic immune response and to enhance targeted drug delivery. This review provides a brief overview of HIFU, describes current clinical applications of HIFU for pancreatic cancer, and discusses future applications and challenges. PMID:21103296

Ambulatory Assessment

PubMed Central

Trull, Timothy J.; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich

2014-01-01

Ambulatory assessment (AA) covers a wide range of assessment methods to study people in their natural environment, including self-report, observational, and biological/physiological/behavioral. AA methods minimize retrospective biases while gathering ecologically valid data from patients’ everyday life in real time or near real time. Here, we report on the major characteristics of AA, and we provide examples of applications of AA in clinical psychology (a) to investigate mechanisms and dynamics of symptoms, (b) to predict the future recurrence or onset of symptoms, (c) to monitor treatment effects, (d) to predict treatment success, (e) to prevent relapse, and (f) as interventions. In addition, we present and discuss the most pressing and compelling future AA applications: technological developments (the smartphone), improved ecological validity of laboratory results by combined lab-field studies, and investigating gene-environment interactions. We conclude with a discussion of acceptability, compliance, privacy, and ethical issues. PMID:23157450

Analysis of Mental Workload in Online Shopping: Are Augmented and Virtual Reality Consistent?

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaojun; Shi, Changxiu; You, Xuqun; Zong, Chenming

2017-01-01

A market research company (Nielsen) reported that consumers in the Asia-Pacific region have become the most active group in online shopping. Focusing on augmented reality (AR), which is one of three major techniques used to change the method of shopping in the future, this study used a mixed design to discuss the influences of the method of online shopping, user gender, cognitive style, product value, and sensory channel on mental workload in virtual reality (VR) and AR situations. The results showed that males' mental workloads were significantly higher than females'. For males, high-value products' mental workload was significantly higher than that of low-value products. In the VR situation, the visual mental workload of field-independent and field-dependent consumers showed a significant difference, but the difference was reduced under audio-visual conditions. In the AR situation, the visual mental workload of field-independent and field-dependent consumers showed a significant difference, but the difference increased under audio-visual conditions. This study provided a psychological study of online shopping with AR and VR technology with applications in the future. Based on the perspective of embodied cognition, AR online shopping may be potential focus of research and market application. For the future design of online shopping platforms and the updating of user experience, this study provides a reference.

Analysis of Mental Workload in Online Shopping: Are Augmented and Virtual Reality Consistent?

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xiaojun; Shi, Changxiu; You, Xuqun; Zong, Chenming

2017-01-01

A market research company (Nielsen) reported that consumers in the Asia-Pacific region have become the most active group in online shopping. Focusing on augmented reality (AR), which is one of three major techniques used to change the method of shopping in the future, this study used a mixed design to discuss the influences of the method of online shopping, user gender, cognitive style, product value, and sensory channel on mental workload in virtual reality (VR) and AR situations. The results showed that males’ mental workloads were significantly higher than females’. For males, high-value products’ mental workload was significantly higher than that of low-value products. In the VR situation, the visual mental workload of field-independent and field-dependent consumers showed a significant difference, but the difference was reduced under audio–visual conditions. In the AR situation, the visual mental workload of field-independent and field-dependent consumers showed a significant difference, but the difference increased under audio–visual conditions. This study provided a psychological study of online shopping with AR and VR technology with applications in the future. Based on the perspective of embodied cognition, AR online shopping may be potential focus of research and market application. For the future design of online shopping platforms and the updating of user experience, this study provides a reference. PMID:28184207

Does counselling improve uptake of long-term and permanent contraceptive methods in a high HIV-prevalence setting?

PubMed Central

Dudley, Lilian; Makumucha, Courage; Dlamini, Phatisizwe; Moyo, Sihle; Bhembe, Sibongiseni

2015-01-01

Abstract Background Studies have shown a reduced uptake of contraceptive methods in HIV-positive women of childbearing age, mainly because of unmet needs that may be a result of poor promotion of available methods of contraception, especially long-term and permanent methods (LTPM). Aim To compare the uptake of contraceptive methods, and particularly LTPM, by HIV-positive and HIV-negative post-partum mothers, and to assess the effects of counselling on contraceptive choices. Setting Three government district hospitals in Swaziland. Methods Interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, before and after counselling HIV-negative and HIV-positive post-partum women in LTPM use, unintended pregnancy rates, future fertility and reasons for contraceptive choices. Results A total of 711 women, of whom half were HIV-positive, participated in the study. Most (72.3% HIV-negative and 84% HIV-positive) were on modern methods of contraception, with the majority using 2-monthly and 3-monthly injectables. Intended use of any contraceptive increased to 99% after counselling. LTPM use was 7.0% in HIV-negative mothers and 15.3% in HIV-positive mothers before counselling, compared with 41.3% and 42.4% in HIV-negative and HIV-positive mothers, respectively, after counselling. Pregnancy intentions and counselling on future fertility were significantly associated with current use of contraception, whilst current LTPM use and level of education were significantly associated with LTPM post-counselling. Conclusion Counselling on all methods including LTPM reduced unmet needs in contraception in HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers and could improve contraceptive uptake and reduce unintended pregnancies. Health workers do not always remember to include LTPM when they counsel clients, which could result in a low uptake of these methods. Further experimental studies should be conducted to validate these results. PMID:26842525

Application of physical scaling towards downscaling climate model precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2018-04-01

Physical scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American regional reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performance is compared with two state-of-the-art downscaling methods: statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). The downscaled precipitation is evaluated with reference to recorded precipitation at 57 gauging stations located within the study region. The spatial and temporal robustness of the downscaling methods is evaluated using seven precipitation based indices. Results indicate that SP method-based models perform best in downscaling precipitation followed by GLM, followed by the SDSM model. Best performing models are thereafter used to downscale future precipitations made by three global circulation models (GCMs) following two emission scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 over the twenty-first century. The downscaled future precipitation projections indicate an increase in mean and maximum precipitation intensity as well as a decrease in the total number of dry days. Further an increase in the frequency of short (1-day), moderately long (2-4 day), and long (more than 5-day) precipitation events is projected.

Children's Perceptions of Parental Emotional Neglect and Control and Psychopathology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Robert; Lennie, Susan; Minnis, Helen

2011-01-01

Background: Parental emotional neglect is linked to psychiatric disorder. This study explores the associations between children's perceptions of parental emotional neglect and future psychopathology. Methods: In a school-based longitudinal study of nearly 1,700 children aged 11-15 we explored children's perceptions of parenting, as measured by the…

Site classification for northern forest species

Treesearch

Willard H. Carmean

1977-01-01

Summarizes the extensive literature for northern forest species covering site index curves, site index species comparisons, growth intercepts, soil-site studies, plant indicators, physiographic site classifications, and soil survey studies. The advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed, and suggestions are made for future research using each of these methods....

Preservice Mathematics Teachers' Conceptions of and Approaches to Learning: A Phenomenographic Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erdogan, Ahmet

2012-01-01

Knowing the preservice mathematics teachers' conceptions of learning is one of the key factors of taking significant educational measures regarding the future. The purpose of this study was to investigate preservice mathematics teachers' conceptions of and approaches to learning. The phenomenographic qualitative research method was used to…

Deciding Factors: Do Factors beyond Achievement Influence Teachers' Student Placement Decisions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riley, Tasha

2014-01-01

Since teachers' decisions potentially have consequences for learners' future educational and life opportunities, it is imperative to determine the basis of teachers' decision-making in order to determine whether it is discriminatory. This study combines qualitative and quantitative methods towards a multi-school, multi-region study of Australian…

A Systematic Review of Strategies for Implementing Empirically Supported Mental Health Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Byron J.; Proctor, Enola K.; Glass, Joseph E.

2014-01-01

Objective: This systematic review examines experimental studies that test the effectiveness of strategies intended to integrate empirically supported mental health interventions into routine care settings. Our goal was to characterize the state of the literature and to provide direction for future implementation studies. Method: A literature…

A method of mapping sinkhole susceptibility using a geographic information system : a case study for interstates in the karst counties of Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-02-01

This study proposes the use of a geographic information system (GIS) to create a susceptibility map, pinpointing : regions in the karst counties of Virginia, in particular, along interstates, most susceptible to future sinkhole : development, determi...

Research Designs and Methods in Self-Assessment Studies: A Content Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pastore, Serafina

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on self-assessment studies in the higher education field. In the assessment for learning perspective, self-assessment is related to reflection, metacognition, and self-regulation: all these aspects are considered as fundamental prerequisites for students' future professional development. Despite the recognition of…

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-10-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalentmore » (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%.« less

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-01-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

A review of published analyses of case-cohort studies and recommendations for future reporting.

PubMed

Sharp, Stephen J; Poulaliou, Manon; Thompson, Simon G; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M

2014-01-01

The case-cohort study design combines the advantages of a cohort study with the efficiency of a nested case-control study. However, unlike more standard observational study designs, there are currently no guidelines for reporting results from case-cohort studies. Our aim was to review recent practice in reporting these studies, and develop recommendations for the future. By searching papers published in 24 major medical and epidemiological journals between January 2010 and March 2013 using PubMed, Scopus and Web of Knowledge, we identified 32 papers reporting case-cohort studies. The median subcohort sampling fraction was 4.1% (interquartile range 3.7% to 9.1%). The papers varied in their approaches to describing the numbers of individuals in the original cohort and the subcohort, presenting descriptive data, and in the level of detail provided about the statistical methods used, so it was not always possible to be sure that appropriate analyses had been conducted. Based on the findings of our review, we make recommendations about reporting of the study design, subcohort definition, numbers of participants, descriptive information and statistical methods, which could be used alongside existing STROBE guidelines for reporting observational studies.

Qualitative psychotherapy research: the journey so far and future directions.

PubMed

Levitt, Heidi M

2015-03-01

This article documents the evolution of qualitative psychotherapy research over the past 3 decades. Clients' and therapists' accounts of their experiences in psychotherapy provide a window into the psychotherapy relationship and its mechanisms of change. A sizable body of literature has been generated that uses qualitative methods to collect and analyze these accounts and to shed light on the psychotherapy process. It notes changes in the field such as growing numbers of dissertations and publications using qualitative methods as well as a strengthening emphasis on qualitative research within graduate education and research funding bodies. Future recommendations include developing principles for practice from qualitative methods and conducting qualitative meta-analyses. Other recommendations include forming journal review policies that support the publication of qualitative research and that focus on coherence in adapting methods to meet research goals, in light of a study's characteristics and epistemological framework, rather than focusing on sets of procedures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Apollo/Skylab suit program management systems study. Volume 2: Cost analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

The business management methods employed in the performance of the Apollo-Skylab Suit Program are studied. The data accumulated over the span of the contract as well as the methods used to accumulate the data are examined. Management methods associated with the monitoring and control of resources applied towards the performance of the contract are also studied and recommended upon. The primary objective is the compilation, analysis, and presentation of historical cost performance criteria. Cost data are depicted for all phases of the Apollo-Skylab program in common, meaningful terms, whereby the data may be applicable to future suit program planning efforts.

A thin film degradation study of a fluorinated polyether liquid lubricant using an HPLC method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morales, W.

1986-01-01

A High Pressure Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) separation method was developed to study and analyze a fluorinated polyether fluid which is promising liquid lubricant for future applications. This HPLC separation method was used in a preliminary study investigating the catalytic effect of various metal, metal alloy, and ceramic engineering materials on the degradation of this fluid in a dry air atmosphere at 345 C. Using a 440 C stainless steel as a reference catalytic material it was found that a titanium alloy and a chromium plated material degraded the fluorinated polyether fluid substantially more than the reference material.

Water Resources Study for Metropolitan Chester Creek Basin, Pennsylvania.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-09-01

premium is the second most effective method of calling attention to the flood risk . The first is a flood itself. Presumably the cost will encourage the...communities in the Basin. Due to the high risks in- volved people should strive to keep the coverage current and at the maximim level allowed. Permanent Flood...result of future development of upstream areas, and the eight lives lost in the flood of record and future risk of the loss of lives. I have determined

Filoviruses in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Olival, Kevin J.; Hayman, David T. S.

2014-01-01

Filoviruses, including Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus, pose significant threats to public health and species conservation by causing hemorrhagic fever outbreaks with high mortality rates. Since the first outbreak in 1967, their origins, natural history, and ecology remained elusive until recent studies linked them through molecular, serological, and virological studies to bats. We review the ecology, epidemiology, and natural history of these systems, drawing on examples from other bat-borne zoonoses, and highlight key areas for future research. We compare and contrast results from ecological and virological studies of bats and filoviruses with those of other systems. We also highlight how advanced methods, such as more recent serological assays, can be interlinked with flexible statistical methods and experimental studies to inform the field studies necessary to understand filovirus persistence in wildlife populations and cross-species transmission leading to outbreaks. We highlight the need for a more unified, global surveillance strategy for filoviruses in wildlife, and advocate for more integrated, multi-disciplinary approaches to understand dynamics in bat populations to ultimately mitigate or prevent potentially devastating disease outbreaks. PMID:24747773

Nozzle Initiative Industry Advisory Committee on Standardization of Carbon-Phenolic Test Methods and Specifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bull, William B. (Compiler); Pinoli, Pat C. (Compiler); Upton, Cindy G. (Compiler); Day, Tony (Compiler); Hill, Keith (Compiler); Stone, Frank (Compiler); Hall, William B.

1994-01-01

This report is a compendium of the presentations of the 12th biannual meeting of the Industry Advisory Committee under the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program. A complete transcript of the welcoming talks is provided. Presentation outlines and overheads are included for the other sessions: SPIP Overview, Past, Current and Future Activity; Test Methods Manual and Video Tape Library; Air Force Developed Computer Aided Cure Program and SPC/TQM Experience; Magneto-Optical mapper (MOM), Joint Army/NASA program to assess composite integrity; Permeability Testing; Moisture Effusion Testing by Karl Fischer Analysis; Statistical Analysis of Acceptance Test Data; NMR Phenolic Resin Advancement; Constituent Testing Highlights on the LDC Optimization Program; Carbon Sulfur Study, Performance Related Testing; Current Rayon Specifications and Future Availability; RSRM/SPC Implementation; SRM Test Methods, Delta/Titan/FBM/RSRM; and Open Forum on Performance Based Acceptance Testing -- Industry Experience.

Rehabilitation Practitioners' Prioritized Care Processes in Hip Fracture Post-Acute Care

PubMed Central

Kim, Lauren H.; Leland, Natalie E.

2017-01-01

Aims Occupational and physical therapy in post-acute care (PAC) has reached the point where quality indicators for hip fracture are needed. This study characterizes the practitioners' prioritized hip fracture rehabilitation practices, which can guide future quality improvement initiatives. Methods Ninety-two practitioners participating in a parent mixed methods study were asked to rank a series of evidence-based best practices across five clinical domains (assessment, intervention, discharge planning, caregiver training and patient education). Results Prioritized practices reflected patient-practitioner collaboration, facilitating an effective discharge, and preventing adverse events. The highest endorsed care processes include: developing meaningful goals with patient input (84%) in assessment, using assistive devices in intervention (75%) and patient education (65%), engaging the patient and caregiver (50%) in discharge planning, and fall prevention (60%) in caregiver education. Conclusions Practitioners identified key care priorities. This study lays the foundation for future work evaluating the extent to which these practices are delivered in PAC. PMID:28989216

Historical Causes and Future Projections of Hydrological Drought Change over a Semi-arid Watershed in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Y.; Yuan, X.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

During the past five decades, significant decreasing trends in streamflow records were observed at many hydrological gauges within the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China, leading to an intensified water resource shortage and a rising hydrological drought risk. This phenomenon is generally considered as a consequence of climate changes and human interventions, such as greenhouse gas emissions, regional land use/cover changes, dam and reservoir constructions and direct water withdrawals. There are many studies on the attribution of streamflow decline and hydrological drought change in this region, while a consolidated conclusion is missing.In this study, we focus on historical and future hydrological drought characteristics over a semi-arid watershed located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. Daily climate simulations from several IPCC CMIP5 models were collected to drive a newly developed eco-hydrological model CLM-GBHM with detailed description of river network and sub-basin topological relationship, to simulate streamflow series under different forcings and scenarios. The standard streamflow index was calculated and used to figure out the characteristics (e.g., frequency, duration and severity) of both historical and future hydrological droughts. The causes and contributions in terms of natural and anthropogenic influences will be investigated based on an optimal fingerprinting method, and the relative importance of internal variability, model and scenario uncertainties for future projections will also be estimated using a separation method. This study will facilitate the implementation of adaptation strategies for hydrological drought over the semi-arid watershed in a changing environment.

Issues in Benchmarking Human Reliability Analysis Methods: A Literature Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; John A. Forester

There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing pastmore » benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.« less

Invited commentary: Evaluating epidemiologic research methods--the importance of response rate calculation.

PubMed

Harris, M Anne

2010-09-15

Epidemiologic research that uses administrative records (rather than registries or clinical surveys) to identify cases for study has been increasingly restricted because of concerns about privacy, making unbiased population-based research less practicable. In their article, Nattinger et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2010;172(6):637-644) present a method for using administrative data to contact participants that has been well received. However, the methods employed for calculating and reporting response rates require further consideration, particularly the classification of untraceable cases as ineligible. Depending on whether response rates are used to evaluate the potential for bias to influence study results or to evaluate the acceptability of the method of contact, different fractions may be considered. To improve the future study of epidemiologic research methods, a consensus on the calculation and reporting of study response rates should be sought.

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization

PubMed Central

Låftman, Sara B.; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-01-01

Future orientation can be defined as an individual’s thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents’ future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15–16 years) (n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying. PMID:29584631

Future Orientation among Students Exposed to School Bullying and Cyberbullying Victimization.

PubMed

Låftman, Sara B; Alm, Susanne; Sandahl, Julia; Modin, Bitte

2018-03-27

Future orientation can be defined as an individual's thoughts, beliefs, plans, and hopes for the future. Earlier research has shown adolescents' future orientation to predict outcomes later in life, which makes it relevant to analyze differences in future orientation among youth. The aim of the present study was to analyze if bullying victimization was associated with an increased likelihood of reporting a pessimistic future orientation among school youth. To be able to distinguish between victims and bully-victims (i.e., students who are both bullies and victims), we also took perpetration into account. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey performed in 2016 among ninth grade students (ages 15-16 years) ( n = 5144). Future orientation and involvement in school bullying and in cyberbullying were based on self-reports. The statistical method used was binary logistic regression. The results demonstrated that victims and bully-victims of school bullying and of cyberbullying were more likely to report a pessimistic future orientation compared with students not involved in bullying. These associations were shown also when involvement in school bullying and cyberbullying were mutually adjusted. The findings underline the importance of anti-bullying measures that target both school bullying and cyberbullying.

Evaluating the Coda Phase Delay Method for Determining Temperature Ratios in Windy Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albert, Sarah; Bowman, Daniel; Rodgers, Arthur

2017-07-01

We evaluate the acoustic coda phase delay method for estimating changes in atmospheric phenomena in realistic environments. Previous studies verifying the method took place in an environment with negligible wind. The equation for effective sound speed, which the method is based upon, shows that the influence of wind is equal to the square of temperature. Under normal conditions, wind is significant and therefore cannot be ignored. Results from this study con rm the previous statement. The acoustic coda phase delay method breaks down in non-ideal environments, namely those where wind speed and direction varies across small distances. We suggest thatmore » future studies make use of gradiometry to better understand the effect of wind on the acoustic coda and subsequent phase delays.« less

Toward a theory of discontinuous career transition: investigating career transitions necessitated by traumatic life events.

PubMed

Haynie, J Michael; Shepherd, Dean

2011-05-01

Career researchers have focused on the mechanisms related to career progression. Although less studied, situations in which traumatic life events necessitate a discontinuous career transition are becoming increasingly prevalent. Employing a multiple case study method, we offer a deeper understanding of such transitions by studying an extreme case: soldiers and Marines disabled by wartime combat. Our study highlights obstacles to future employment that are counterintuitive and stem from the discontinuous and traumatic nature of job loss. Effective management of this type of transitioning appears to stem from efforts positioned to formulate a coherent narrative of the traumatic experience and thus to reconstruct foundational assumptions about the world, humanity, and self. These foundational assumptions form the basis for enacting future-orientated career strategies, such that progress toward establishing a new career path is greatest for those who can orientate themselves away from the past (trauma), away from the present (obstacles to a new career), and toward an envisioned future career positioned to confer meaning and purpose through work.

Multivariate Methods for Meta-Analysis of Genetic Association Studies.

PubMed

Dimou, Niki L; Pantavou, Katerina G; Braliou, Georgia G; Bagos, Pantelis G

2018-01-01

Multivariate meta-analysis of genetic association studies and genome-wide association studies has received a remarkable attention as it improves the precision of the analysis. Here, we review, summarize and present in a unified framework methods for multivariate meta-analysis of genetic association studies and genome-wide association studies. Starting with the statistical methods used for robust analysis and genetic model selection, we present in brief univariate methods for meta-analysis and we then scrutinize multivariate methodologies. Multivariate models of meta-analysis for a single gene-disease association studies, including models for haplotype association studies, multiple linked polymorphisms and multiple outcomes are discussed. The popular Mendelian randomization approach and special cases of meta-analysis addressing issues such as the assumption of the mode of inheritance, deviation from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium and gene-environment interactions are also presented. All available methods are enriched with practical applications and methodologies that could be developed in the future are discussed. Links for all available software implementing multivariate meta-analysis methods are also provided.

Changes of reference evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin: Present observations and future projection from climatic variables through multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Peng, Shizhang; Yu, Zhongbo; Yong, Bin; Taylor, John

2014-04-01

As the most excellent indicator for hydrological cycle and a central link to water-balance calculations, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources systems since the climate change has been becoming more pronounced. In this study, we conduct an investigation on the spatial and temporal changes in ET0 of the Haihe River Basin in present and future stages. The ET0 in the past five decades (1961-2010) are calculated by the Penman-Monteith method with historical climatic variables in 40 sites while the ET0 estimation for the future period of 2011-2099 is based on the related climatic variables projected by Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach. Results can be summarized for the present and future as follows. (1) No coherent spatial patterns in ET0 changes are seen in the whole basin. Half of the stations distributed mainly in the eastern and southeastern plain regions present significant negative trends, while only 3 stations in the western mountainous and plateau basin show significant positive trends. Radiation is mainly responsible for the ET0 change in the southern and eastern basin, whereas relative humidity and wind speed are the leading factors in the eastern coastal and north parts. (2) BMA ensemble method is competent to produce lower bias in comparison with other common methods in this basin. Future spatiotemporal ET0 pattern analysis by means of the BMA method based on the ensembles of four CGCMs suggested that although the spatial patterns under three scenarios are different in the forthcoming two decades, generally increasing trends can be found in the 21st century, which is mainly attributed to the significant increasing temperature. In addition, the implication of future ET0 change in agriculture and local water resources is discussed as an extension of this work. The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the future water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management in the Haihe River Basin.

Spatial access to residential care resources in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background As the population is ageing rapidly in Beijing, the residential care sector is in a fast expansion process with the support of the municipal government. Understanding spatial accessibility to residential care resources by older people supports the need for rational allocation of care resources in future planning. Methods Based on population data and data on residential care resources, this study uses two Geographic Information System (GIS) based methods – shortest path analysis and a two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method to analyse spatial accessibility to residential care resources. Results Spatial accessibility varies as the methods and considered factors change. When only time distance is considered, residential care resources are more accessible in the central city than in suburban and exurban areas. If care resources are considered in addition to time distance, spatial accessibility is relatively poor in the central city compared to the northeast to southeast side of the suburban and exurban areas. The resources in the northwest to southwest side of the city are the least accessible, even though several hotspots of residential care resources are located in these areas. Conclusions For policy making, it may require combining various methods for a comprehensive analysis. The methods used in this study provide tools for identifying underserved areas in order to improve equity in access to and efficiency in allocation of residential care resources in future planning. PMID:22877360

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents☆

PubMed Central

Marotta, Phillip L.; Voisin, Dexter R.

2017-01-01

Objective Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. Methods A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Results Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Conclusions Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation. PMID:28974824

Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

PubMed Central

Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

Pregnancy Intentions and Safer Pregnancy Knowledge Among Female Sex Workers in Port Elizabeth, South Africa.

PubMed

Rao, Amrita; Baral, Stefan; Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Lambert, Andrew; Kose, Zamakayise; Mcingana, Mfezi; Holland, Claire; Ketende, Sosthenes; Schwartz, Sheree

2016-07-01

To assess the association between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and pregnancy intentions and safer conception knowledge among female sex workers in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. This cross-sectional study recruited female sex workers in Port Elizabeth using respondent-driven sampling and completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire alongside HIV testing and counseling. In this secondary analysis, robust Poisson regression was used to model prevalence ratios for positive fertility intentions in this cross-sectional study. Knowledge of safer conception methods by HIV status was compared using Fisher exact tests. Overall 391 women were represented in the analyses. More than 50% had a prior HIV diagnosis, and an additional 12% were diagnosed with HIV during the study. Approximately half (n=185) of the women reported future pregnancy intentions. In univariate analysis, a prior HIV diagnosis was negatively associated with pregnancy intentions as compared with HIV-negative women (prevalence ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.85). Only parity remained independently associated with future pregnancy intentions in multivariate regression after controlling for HIV status, age, race, relationship status, and years selling sex. Knowledge of safer conception methods such as timed sex without a condom, preexposure prophylaxis, or self-insemination was low and similar between those with and without future pregnancy plans. Pregnancy intentions did not significantly vary according to HIV status. Fertility intentions were high, however, and knowledge of safer conception methods low, suggesting a need to provide female sex workers with advice around options to conceive safely in the context of high HIV prevalence.

An evaluation method of the profile of plasma-induced defects based on capacitance-voltage measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Yukimasa; Ono, Kouichi; Eriguchi, Koji

2017-06-01

Aggressive shrinkage and geometrical transition to three-dimensional structures in metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) lead to potentially serious problems regarding plasma processing such as plasma-induced physical damage (PPD). For the precise control of material processing and future device designs, it is extremely important to clarify the depth and energy profiles of PPD. Conventional methods to estimate the PPD profile (e.g., wet etching) are time-consuming. In this study, we propose an advanced method using a simple capacitance-voltage (C-V) measurement. The method first assumes the depth and energy profiles of defects in Si substrates, and then optimizes the C-V curves. We applied this methodology to evaluate the defect generation in (100), (111), and (110) Si substrates. No orientation dependence was found regarding the surface-oxide layers, whereas a large number of defects was assigned in the case of (110). The damaged layer thickness and areal density were estimated. This method provides the highly sensitive PPD prediction indispensable for designing future low-damage plasma processes.

The challenges of studying visual expertise in medical image diagnosis.

PubMed

Gegenfurtner, Andreas; Kok, Ellen; van Geel, Koos; de Bruin, Anique; Jarodzka, Halszka; Szulewski, Adam; van Merriënboer, Jeroen Jg

2017-01-01

Visual expertise is the superior visual skill shown when executing domain-specific visual tasks. Understanding visual expertise is important in order to understand how the interpretation of medical images may be best learned and taught. In the context of this article, we focus on the visual skill of medical image diagnosis and, more specifically, on the methodological set-ups routinely used in visual expertise research. We offer a critique of commonly used methods and propose three challenges for future research to open up new avenues for studying characteristics of visual expertise in medical image diagnosis. The first challenge addresses theory development. Novel prospects in modelling visual expertise can emerge when we reflect on cognitive and socio-cultural epistemologies in visual expertise research, when we engage in statistical validations of existing theoretical assumptions and when we include social and socio-cultural processes in expertise development. The second challenge addresses the recording and analysis of longitudinal data. If we assume that the development of expertise is a long-term phenomenon, then it follows that future research can engage in advanced statistical modelling of longitudinal expertise data that extends the routine use of cross-sectional material through, for example, animations and dynamic visualisations of developmental data. The third challenge addresses the combination of methods. Alternatives to current practices can integrate qualitative and quantitative approaches in mixed-method designs, embrace relevant yet underused data sources and understand the need for multidisciplinary research teams. Embracing alternative epistemological and methodological approaches for studying visual expertise can lead to a more balanced and robust future for understanding superior visual skills in medical image diagnosis as well as other medical fields. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Basal ganglia atrophy in prodromal Huntington’s disease is detectable over one year using automated segmentation

PubMed Central

Majid, DS Adnan; Aron, Adam R; Thompson, Wesley; Sheldon, Sarah; Hamza, Samar; Stoffers, Diederick; Holland, Dominic; Goldstein, Jody; Corey-Bloom, Jody; Dale, Anders M

2017-01-01

Background Future clinical trials of neuroprotection in prodromal Huntington’s (known as preHD) require sensitive in vivo imaging biomarkers to track disease progression over the shortest period. Since basal ganglia atrophy is the most prominent structural characteristic of Huntington’s pathology, systematic assessment of longitudinal subcortical atrophy holds great potential for future biomarker development. Methods We studied 36 preHD and 22 age-matched controls using a novel method to quantify regional change from T1-weighted structural images acquired one year apart. We assessed cross-sectional volume differences and longitudinal volumetric change in seven subcortical structures – the accumbens, amygdala, caudate, hippocampus, pallidum, putamen, and thalamus. Results At baseline, accumbens, caudate, pallidum, and putamen volumes were reduced in preHD vs. controls (all p<.01). Longitudinally, atrophy was greater in preHD than controls in the caudate, pallidum, and putamen (all p<.01). Each structure showed a large between-group effect size, especially the pallidum where Cohen’s d was 1.21. Using pallidal atrophy as a biomarker, we estimate that a hypothetical one-year neuroprotection study would require only 35 preHD per arm to detect a 50% slowing in atrophy and only 138 preHD per arm to detect a 25% slowing in atrophy. Conclusions The effect sizes calculated for preHD basal ganglia atrophy over one year are some of the largest reported to date. Consequently, this translates to strikingly small sample size estimates that will greatly facilitate any future neuroprotection study. This underscores the utility of this automatic image segmentation and longitudinal nonlinear registration method for upcoming studies of preHD and other neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:21932302

Conduct of a personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurement study: proposed study protocol.

PubMed

Röösli, Martin; Frei, Patrizia; Bolte, John; Neubauer, Georg; Cardis, Elisabeth; Feychting, Maria; Gajsek, Peter; Heinrich, Sabine; Joseph, Wout; Mann, Simon; Martens, Luc; Mohler, Evelyn; Parslow, Roger C; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Radon, Katja; Schüz, Joachim; Thuroczy, György; Viel, Jean-François; Vrijheid, Martine

2010-05-20

The development of new wireless communication technologies that emit radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) is ongoing, but little is known about the RF-EMF exposure distribution in the general population. Previous attempts to measure personal exposure to RF-EMF have used different measurement protocols and analysis methods making comparisons between exposure situations across different study populations very difficult. As a result, observed differences in exposure levels between study populations may not reflect real exposure differences but may be in part, or wholly due to methodological differences. The aim of this paper is to develop a study protocol for future personal RF-EMF exposure studies based on experience drawn from previous research. Using the current knowledge base, we propose procedures for the measurement of personal exposure to RF-EMF, data collection, data management and analysis, and methods for the selection and instruction of study participants. We have identified two basic types of personal RF-EMF measurement studies: population surveys and microenvironmental measurements. In the case of a population survey, the unit of observation is the individual and a randomly selected representative sample of the population is needed to obtain reliable results. For microenvironmental measurements, study participants are selected in order to represent typical behaviours in different microenvironments. These two study types require different methods and procedures. Applying our proposed common core procedures in future personal measurement studies will allow direct comparisons of personal RF-EMF exposures in different populations and study areas.

Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants - Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ritterbusch, Stanley; Golay, Michael; Duran, Felicia

2003-01-29

OAK B188 Summary of methods proposed for risk informing the design and regulation of future nuclear power plants. All elements of the historical design and regulation process are preserved, but the methods proposed for new plants use probabilistic risk assessment methods as the primary decision making tool.

Brain Imaging, Forward Inference, and Theories of Reasoning

PubMed Central

Heit, Evan

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities. PMID:25620926

Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.

PubMed

Heit, Evan

2014-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

A Comparative Study of Strategic HRD Approaches for Workforce Planning in the Tourism Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartlett, Kenneth; Johnson, Karen; Schneider, Ingrid E.

2006-01-01

This study compares the outcomes of two often used approaches for strategic HRD planning. Using methods framed within a strategic HRD planning framework the outcomes of a qualitative primary data approach are examined against quantitative labor market projections in a study of the future Minnesota tourism workforce. Results show each planning…

Media Exposure, Aggression and Prosocial Behavior during Early Childhood: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ostrov, Jamie M.; Gentile, Douglas A.; Crick, Nicki R.

2006-01-01

Preschool children (N = 78) enrolled in multi-informant, multi-method longitudinal study were participants in a study designed to investigate the role of media exposure (i.e., violent and educational) on concurrent and future aggressive and prosocial behavior. Specifically, the amount of media exposure and the nature of the content was used to…

Concept Development for Future Domains: A New Method of Knowledge Elicitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

Procedure: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences (ARI) examined methods to generate, refine, test , and validate new...generate, elaborate, refine, describe, test , and validate new Future Force concepts relating to doctrine, tactics, techniques, procedures, unit and team...System (Harvey, 1993), and the Job Element Method (Primoff & Eyde , 1988). Figure 1 provides a more comprehensive list of task analytic methods. Please see

A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

PubMed

Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

2014-05-01

Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

Effects of climate change on hydrology and hydraulics of Qu River Basin, East China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, Z.; Pan, S.; Xu, Y. P.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change on regional hydrological extreme events have attracted much attention in recent years. This paper aims to provide a general overview of changes on future runoffs and water levels in the Qu River Basin, upper reaches of Qiantang River, East China by combining future climate scenarios, hydrological model and 1D hydraulic model. The outputs of four GCMs BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2021-2050 are chosen to represent future climate change projections. The LARS-WG statistical downscaling method is used to downscale the coarse GCM outputs and generate 50 years of synthetic precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to drive the GR4J hydrological model and the 1D hydraulic model for the baseline period 1971-2000 and the future period 2021-2050. Finally the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) method is applied to analyze the change of extreme events in the study area. The results show that design runoffs and water levels all indicate an increasing trend in the future period for Changshangang River, Jiangshangang River and Qu River at most cases, especially for small return periods(≤20), and for Qu River the increase becomes larger, which suggests that the risk of flooding will probably become greater and appropriate adaptation measures need to be taken.

USE OF FOCUS GROUPS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCHER

EPA Science Inventory

Qualitative research techniques are often under-utilized by the environmental health researcher. Focus groups, one such qualitative method, can provide rich data sets for study planning and implementation, risk perception, program and policy research, and exploration into future...

The IAA Cosmic Study 'Protecting the Environment of Celestial Bodies'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rettberg, Petra; Hofmann, Mahulena; Williamson, Mark

The study group tasked with producing this International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) `Cosmic Study' on Protecting the Environment of Celestial Bodies was formed under the aus-pices of IAA Commission V (Space Policy, Law Economy). The members of the international, multidisciplinary team assembled to undertake the Study accept, as a premise, the Planetary Protection Policy guidelines developed by COSPAR, which differentiate the degree of protec-tion according to the type of space activity and the celestial body under investigation (such that fly-by missions have less stringent requirements than lander missions, while Mars is `better protected' than the Moon). However, this Study goes deliberately beyond the interpretation of `Planetary Protection' as a set of methods for protecting the planets from biological con-tamination and extends consideration to the geophysical, industrial and cultural realms. The Study concludes that, from the perspective of current and future activities in outer space, present measures aimed at protecting the space environment are insufficient. Deficiencies in-clude a lack of suitable in-situ methods of chemical and biological detection and the absence of a systematic record of radioactive contaminants. Other issues identified by the Study include an insufficient legal framework, a shortage of effective economic tools and a lack of political will to address these concerns. It is expected that new detection methods under development, and the resultant increase in microbiological knowledge of the planetary surfaces, will lead to changes in the COSPAR planetary protection guidelines and bioburden limits. It is important, however, that any new approaches should not hamper future exploration and exploitation of celestial bodies more than absolutely necessary. The Study addresses the need to find a balance between protection and freedom of action. From a legal perspective, the Study concludes that a general consensus on protection of the environment of the Moon and other celestial bodies should be sought among spacefaring states, while the question of new laws and regulations should be deliberated in the UN and scientific organisations. In doing so, it is recommended that experience in formulating the Antarctic Treaty System and other terrestrial environmen-tal accords should be taken into account. In general terms, it is expected that the majority of space activities would remain untouched by any future policies and regulations, to ensure that space exploration and exploitation remains open to future generations. But this philosophy brings with it a responsibility to protect the freedoms of those future generations from the ill-conceived practices of the present. As a result, activities that threaten the environments of celestial bodies, and our cultural heritage, should be identified, mitigated and discouraged (either by policy or by law).

Perspectives on the Future of CFD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwak, Dochan

2000-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of the future of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which in the past has pioneered the field of flow simulation. Over time CFD has progressed as computing power. Numerical methods have been advanced as CPU and memory capacity increases. Complex configurations are routinely computed now and direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) are used to study turbulence. As the computing resources changed to parallel and distributed platforms, computer science aspects such as scalability (algorithmic and implementation) and portability and transparent codings have advanced. Examples of potential future (or current) challenges include risk assessment, limitations of the heuristic model, and the development of CFD and information technology (IT) tools.

Ultrasonic Phased Array Simulations of Welded Components at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, D. J.; Tokars, R. P.; Martin, R. E.; Rauser, R. W.; Aldrin, J. C.

2009-01-01

Comprehensive and accurate inspections of welded components have become of increasing importance as NASA develops new hardware such as Ares rocket segments for future exploration missions. Simulation and modeling will play an increasing role in the future for nondestructive evaluation in order to better understand the physics of the inspection process, to prove or disprove the feasibility for an inspection method or inspection scenario, for inspection optimization, for better understanding of experimental results, and for assessment of probability of detection. This study presents simulation and experimental results for an ultrasonic phased array inspection of a critical welded structure important for NASA future exploration vehicles. Keywords: nondestructive evaluation, computational simulation, ultrasonics, weld, modeling, phased array

Ultrasonic Phased Array Inspection Simulations of Welded Components at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, D. J.; Tokars, R. P.; Martin, R. E.; Rauser, R. W.; Aldrin, J. C.; Schumacher, E. J.

2009-01-01

Comprehensive and accurate inspections of welded components have become of increasing importance as NASA develops new hardware such as Ares rocket segments for future exploration missions. Simulation and modeling will play an increased role in the future for nondestructive evaluation in order to better understand the physics of the inspection process and help explain the experimental results. It will also help to prove or disprove the feasibility for an inspection method or inspection scenario, help optimize inspections, and allow to a first approximation limits of detectability. This study presents simulation and experimental results for an ultrasonic phased array inspection of a critical welded structure important for NASA future exploration vehicles.

The Content Analysis of the Research Papers on Foreign Language Education in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solak, Ekrem

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the trends of recent research papers in foreign language teaching in Turkish context and to give ideas to researchers and policy makers for future studies. Content Analysis method was used in this study. The focus of the study was 189 research papers published between 2009-2013 years in journals indexed…

Examining the Effectiveness of Augmented Reality Applications in Education: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tekedere, Hakan; Göke, Hanife

2016-01-01

In this study, the purpose is examining the reviews released on augmented reality applications in education, merging the results obtained in the studies that are independent from each other, and providing a new viewpoint for the studies that will be conducted in the future. The meta-analysis method has been used in the study. 15 out of 171…

Possibilities of the Integration of the Method of the Ecologically Oriented Independent Scientific Research in the Study Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grizans, Jurijs; Vanags, Janis

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse possibilities of the integration of the method of the ecologically oriented independent scientific research in the study process. In order to achieve the set aim, the following scientific research methods were used: analysis of the conceptual guidelines for the development of environmentally oriented entrepreneurship, interpretation of the experts' evaluation of the ecologically oriented management, analysis of the results of the students' ecologically oriented independent scientific research, as well as monographic and logically constructive methods. The results of the study give an opportunity to make conclusions and to develop conceptual recommendations on how to introduce future economics and business professionals with the theoretical and practical aspects of ecologically oriented management during the study process.

Does counselling improve uptake of long-term and permanent contraceptive methods in a high HIV-prevalence setting?

PubMed

Siveregi, Amon; Dudley, Lilian; Makumucha, Courage; Dlamini, Phatisizwe; Moyo, Sihle; Bhembe, Sibongiseni

2015-11-06

Studies have shown a reduced uptake of contraceptive methods in HIV-positive women of childbearing age, mainly because of unmet needs that may be a result of poor promotion of available methods of contraception, especially long-term and permanent methods (LTPM). To compare the uptake of contraceptive methods, and particularly LTPM, by HIV-positive and HIV negative post-partum mothers, and to assess the effects of counselling on contraceptive choices. Three government district hospitals in Swaziland. Interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, before and after counselling HIV negativeand HIV-positive post-partum women in LTPM use, unintended pregnancy rates, future fertility and reasons for contraceptive choices. A total of 711 women, of whom half were HIV-positive, participated in the study. Most (72.3% HIV-negative and 84% HIV-positive) were on modern methods of contraception, with the majority using 2-monthly and 3-monthly injectables. Intended use of any contraceptive increased to 99% after counselling. LTPM use was 7.0% in HIV-negative mothers and 15.3% in HIV-positive mothers before counselling, compared with 41.3% and 42.4% in HIV-negative and HIV-positive mothers, respectively, after counselling. Pregnancy intentions and counselling on future fertility were significantly associated with current use of contraception, whilst current LTPM use and level of education were significantly associated with LTPM post-counselling. Counselling on all methods including LTPM reduced unmet needs in contraception in HIV positive and HIV-negative mothers and could improve contraceptive uptake and reduce unintended pregnancies. Health workers do not always remember to include LTPM when they counsel clients, which could result in a low uptake of these methods. Further experimental studies should be conducted to validate these results.

Rewards and unique challenges faced by African-American custodial grandmothers: the importance of future planning.

PubMed

Crowther, Martha R; Huang, Chao-Hui Sylvia; Allen, Rebecca S

2015-01-01

This exploratory study examined the context and consequences of custodial grandparenting, along with attitudes and preferences regarding future planning among 22 African-American custodial grandmothers. A mixed-method research design was employed. Based on our integration of two theories regarding future planning and health behavior change, caregiving, emotional distress, religiosity and spirituality, and future planning were assessed using questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews. African-American custodial grandmothers (mean age M = 53.64, SD = 9.58) perceived their caregiving role as rewarding (72%) yet challenging (86%). More than 40% reported significant emotional distress (CES-D ≥ 16) that warrants clinical attention. Findings showed that while 64% of study participants had future plans regarding who will substitute in their caregiving role if they become incapacitated, only 9% had completed a living will. Three major themes emerged regarding custodial grandmothers' caregiving role which includes: (1) rewards; (2) challenges including feeling overwhelmed and health concerns; and (3) caregiving decisions including conflicts between 'My plan was…/put self on-hold' for grandchildren and difficulty with future planning. These themes highlighted the dynamics of caregiving across time, including current context and the ongoing process of decision-making. Findings suggest that while African-American custodial grandmothers find caregiving rewarding, they face unique challenges in contemplating and developing future plans. Custodial grandmothers think about substitute caregivers for their grandchildren but need assistance communicating a plan focused on their own needs for future care. Culturally sensitive interventions designed to facilitate effective utilization of future plans within this caregiver population are needed.

Study of hepatocyte plasma membrane mechanical properties using optical trapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vedyaykin, A. D.; Morozova, N. E.; Pobegalov, G. E.; Arseniev, A. N.; Khodorkoskii, M. A.; Sabantsev, A. V.

2014-12-01

In this paper we describe the use of membrane tether formation technique which is widely used to study mechanical properties of plasma membranes. This method was successfully used for the direct measurement of parameters characterizing membranes mechanical properties (static tether tension force and effective membrane viscosity) of human hepatocytes (HepG2 hepatocellular carcinoma line). These results allow using this method in future for diagnostics of the cell membrane, evaluating the influence on the mechanical parameters of various factors, including toxins and drugs.

Traversing the many paths of workflow research: developing a conceptual framework of workflow terminology through a systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Novak, Laurie L; Johnson, Kevin B; Lorenzi, Nancy M

2010-01-01

The objective of this review was to describe methods used to study and model workflow. The authors included studies set in a variety of industries using qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods. Of the 6221 matching abstracts, 127 articles were included in the final corpus. The authors collected data from each article on researcher perspective, study type, methods type, specific methods, approaches to evaluating quality of results, definition of workflow and dependent variables. Ethnographic observation and interviews were the most frequently used methods. Long study durations revealed the large time commitment required for descriptive workflow research. The most frequently discussed technique for evaluating quality of study results was triangulation. The definition of the term “workflow” and choice of methods for studying workflow varied widely across research areas and researcher perspectives. The authors developed a conceptual framework of workflow-related terminology for use in future research and present this model for use by other researchers. PMID:20442143

Growing Better Leaders for the Future: A Study in Optimizing Self-Awareness

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-03

Creative Leadership Handbook of Leadership Development (Greensboro, NC: Center for Creative Leadership, 1998), 5. 12 Ulmer, 4. 13 Daniel Goleman ...Davies-Black Publishers, 1997. Goleman , Daniel , Richard Boyatzis, and Annie McKee, Primal Leadership, Realizing the Power of Emotional Intelligence...paper recommends two methods for optimizing self-awareness. Those methods are psychological testing and 360-degree feedback. The recommendation for

Computational Methods Development at Ames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwak, Dochan; Smith, Charles A. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

This viewgraph presentation outlines the development at Ames Research Center of advanced computational methods to provide appropriate fidelity computational analysis/design capabilities. Current thrusts of the Ames research include: 1) methods to enhance/accelerate viscous flow simulation procedures, and the development of hybrid/polyhedral-grid procedures for viscous flow; 2) the development of real time transonic flow simulation procedures for a production wind tunnel, and intelligent data management technology; and 3) the validation of methods and the flow physics study gives historical precedents to above research, and speculates on its future course.

Patient Similarity in Prediction Models Based on Health Data: A Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Sharafoddini, Anis; Dubin, Joel A

2017-01-01

Background Physicians and health policy makers are required to make predictions during their decision making in various medical problems. Many advances have been made in predictive modeling toward outcome prediction, but these innovations target an average patient and are insufficiently adjustable for individual patients. One developing idea in this field is individualized predictive analytics based on patient similarity. The goal of this approach is to identify patients who are similar to an index patient and derive insights from the records of similar patients to provide personalized predictions.. Objective The aim is to summarize and review published studies describing computer-based approaches for predicting patients’ future health status based on health data and patient similarity, identify gaps, and provide a starting point for related future research. Methods The method involved (1) conducting the review by performing automated searches in Scopus, PubMed, and ISI Web of Science, selecting relevant studies by first screening titles and abstracts then analyzing full-texts, and (2) documenting by extracting publication details and information on context, predictors, missing data, modeling algorithm, outcome, and evaluation methods into a matrix table, synthesizing data, and reporting results. Results After duplicate removal, 1339 articles were screened in abstracts and titles and 67 were selected for full-text review. In total, 22 articles met the inclusion criteria. Within included articles, hospitals were the main source of data (n=10). Cardiovascular disease (n=7) and diabetes (n=4) were the dominant patient diseases. Most studies (n=18) used neighborhood-based approaches in devising prediction models. Two studies showed that patient similarity-based modeling outperformed population-based predictive methods. Conclusions Interest in patient similarity-based predictive modeling for diagnosis and prognosis has been growing. In addition to raw/coded health data, wavelet transform and term frequency-inverse document frequency methods were employed to extract predictors. Selecting predictors with potential to highlight special cases and defining new patient similarity metrics were among the gaps identified in the existing literature that provide starting points for future work. Patient status prediction models based on patient similarity and health data offer exciting potential for personalizing and ultimately improving health care, leading to better patient outcomes. PMID:28258046

Quantifying the intra-annual uncertainties in climate change assessment over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is an inevitable feature of climate change impact assessments. Understanding and quantifying different sources of uncertainty is of high importance, which can help modeling agencies improve the current models and scenarios. In this study, we have assessed the future changes in three climate variables (i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US. To conduct the study, 10 statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs from two downscaling methods (i.e. BCSD and MACA) were utilized at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for the historical period of 1970-2000 and future period of 2010-2099. For the future projections, two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Furthermore, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to develop a probabilistic future projection for each climate variable. Results indicate superiority of BMA simulations compared to individual models. Increasing temperature and precipitation are projected at annual timescale. However, the changes are not uniform among different seasons. Model uncertainty shows to be the major source of uncertainty, while downscaling uncertainty significantly contributes to the total uncertainty, especially in summer.

The use of cue familiarity during retrieval failure is affected by past versus future orientation.

PubMed

Cleary, Anne M

2015-01-01

Cue familiarity that is brought on by cue resemblance to memory representations is useful for judging the likelihood of a past occurrence with an item that fails to actually be retrieved from memory. The present study examined the extent to which this type of resemblance-based cue familiarity is used in future-oriented judgments made during retrieval failure. Cue familiarity was manipulated using a previously-established method of creating differing degrees of feature overlap between the cue and studied items in memory, and the primary interest was in how these varying degrees of cue familiarity would influence future-oriented feeling-of-knowing (FOK) judgments given in instances of cued recall failure. The present results suggest that participants do use increases in resemblance-based cue familiarity to infer an increased likelihood of future recognition of an unretrieved target, but not to the extent that they use it to infer an increased likelihood of past experience with an unretrieved target. During retrieval failure, the increase in future-oriented FOK judgments with increasing cue familiarity was significantly less than the increase in past-oriented recognition judgments with increasing cue familiarity.

From irreversibility to participation: towards a participatory foresight for the governance of collective environmental risks.

PubMed

Faucheux, S; Hue, C

2001-09-14

This paper presents a reflection on the introduction of methods and tools of "participative foresight" for scientific and technology policy as well as environmental policy fields. Future studies have recently made a comeback under the label of foresight. Future technology studies no longer claim to forecast the future, but are presented as a strategic tool for improving interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making. They can be defined as a "process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision-making" [Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking, Futures Res. Quart. (1985) 29]. We discuss applications of this approach for perspectives on environmental policy and sustainable development. Foresight opens up the possibility of negotiating a new and more fruitful relationship or 'social contract' between science and technology, on the one hand, and society on the other. The focus has moved from merely scientific and industrial insights to social demand, thus emphasizing the importance of both the production and "supply" of innovation, and the "demand" as signaled in the views of citizens.

Kinetic analysis of contralateral liver hypertrophy after radioembolization of primary and metastatic liver tumors.

PubMed

Orcutt, Sonia T; Abuodeh, Yazan; Naghavi, Arash; Frakes, Jessica; Hoffe, Sarah; Kis, Bela; Anaya, Daniel A

2018-05-01

Radioembolization induces liver hypertrophy, although the extent and rate of hypertrophy are unknown. Our goal was to examine the kinetics of contralateral liver hypertrophy after transarterial radioembolization. A retrospective study (2010-2014) of treatment-naïve patients with primary/secondary liver malignancies undergoing right lobe radioembolization was performed. Computed tomography volumetry was performed before and 1, 3, and 6 months after radioembolization. Outcomes of interest were left lobe (standardized future liver remnant) degree of hypertrophy, kinetic growth rate, and ability to reach goal standardized future liver remnant ≥40%. Medians were compared with the Kruskall-Wallis test. Time to event analysis was used to estimate time to reach goal standardized future liver remnant. In the study, 25 patients were included. At 1, 3, and 6 months, median degree of hypertrophy was 4%, 8%, and 12% (P < .001), degree of hypertrophy relative to baseline future liver remnants was 11%, 17%, and 31% (P = .015), and kinetic growth rate was 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.4%/week (P = .002). In patients with baseline standardized future liver remnant <40% (N= 16), median time to reach standardized future liver remnant ≥40% was 7.3 months, with 75% accomplishing standardized future liver remnant ≥40% at 8.2 months. Radioembolization induces hypertrophy of the contralateral lobe to a similar extent as existing methods, although at a lower rate. The role of radioembolization as a dual therapy (neoadjuvant and hypetrophy-inducing) for selected patients needs to be studied. (Surgery 2017;160:XXX-XXX.). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Safety leadership and systems thinking: application and evaluation of a Risk Management Framework in the mining industry.

PubMed

Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Horberry, Tim

2017-10-01

Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safety in high-risk industries. This article contends that applying systems-thinking methods to examine safety leadership can support improved learning from incidents. A case study analysis was undertaken of a large-scale mining landslide incident in which no injuries or fatalities were incurred. A multi-method approach was adopted, in which the Critical Decision Method, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework and Accimap method were applied to examine the safety leadership decisions and actions which enabled the safe outcome. The approach enabled Rasmussen's predictions regarding safety and performance to be examined in the safety leadership context, with findings demonstrating the distribution of safety leadership across leader and system levels, and the presence of vertical integration as key to supporting the successful safety outcome. In doing so, the findings also demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to examine and learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. The implications, including future research directions, are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a case study analysis, in which systems-thinking methods are applied to the examination of safety leadership decisions and actions during a large-scale mining landslide incident. The findings establish safety leadership as a systems phenomenon, and furthermore, demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. Implications, including future research directions, are discussed.

Using Four Downscaling Techniques to Characterize Uncertainty in Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; McGinnis, S. A.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to urban drainage design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in a region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the native grid scale and temporal resolution of the climate model. This study examines the variability in updated IDF curves for Pittsburgh using four different methods for adjusting gridded regional climate model (RCM) outputs into station scale precipitation extremes: (1) a simple change factor applied to observed return levels, (2) a naïve adjustment of stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, (3) a transfer function of the GEV parameters from the annual maximum series, and (4) kernel density distribution mapping bias correction of the RCM time series. Return level estimates (rainfall intensities) and confidence intervals from these methods for the 1-hour to 48-hour duration are tested for sensitivity to the underlying spatial and temporal resolution of the climate ensemble from the NA-CORDEX project, as well as, the future time period for updating. The first goal is to determine if uncertainty is highest for: (i) the downscaling method, (ii) the climate model resolution, (iii) the climate model simulation, (iv) the GEV parameters, or (v) the future time period examined. Initial results of the 6-hour, 10-year return level adjusted with the simple change factor method using four climate model simulations of two different spatial resolutions show that uncertainty is highest in the estimation of the GEV parameters. The second goal is to determine if complex downscaling methods and high-resolution climate models are necessary for updating, or if simpler methods and lower resolution climate models will suffice. The final results can be used to inform the most appropriate method and climate model resolutions to use for updating IDF curves for urban drainage design.

Distance Education and Organizational Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

East, Jean F.; LaMendola, Walter; Alter, Catherine

2014-01-01

As distance education models in social work education continue to grow, this study addresses prevalence and type of models in graduate social work programs and the perceptions of deans about the future of e-learning models of curriculum delivery. The study was an exploratory sequential mixed-methods design including a national survey of 121…

Video Feedback in Key Word Signing Training for Preservice Direct Support Staff

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rombouts, Ellen; Meuris, Kristien; Maes, Bea; De Meyer, Anne-Marie; Zink, Inge

2016-01-01

Purpose: Research has demonstrated that formal training is essential for professionals to learn key word signing. Yet, the particular didactic strategies have not been studied. Therefore, this study compared the effectiveness of verbal and video feedback in a key word signing training for future direct support staff. Method: Forty-nine future…

An international nomenclature for forest work study

Treesearch

Rolf Bjorheden; Michael A. Thompson

2000-01-01

Knowledge gained in the study of forest work is used to improve operational efficiency through better planning and control of future work. Internationally recognized standard methods for recording, evaluating and reporting performance in forest work will greatly enhance the usefulness of this information to managers and planners. A subcommittee of IUFRO Working Party...

An international nomenclature for forest work study

Treesearch

Rolf Björheden; Michael A.  Thompson

2000-01-01

Knowledge gained in the study of forest work is used to improve operational efficiency through better planning and control of future work. Internationally recognized standard methods for recording, evaluating and reporting performance in forest work will greatly enhance the usefulness of this information to managers and planners. A subcommittee of IUFRO Working Party $...

The School Health Policies and Programs Study (SHPPS): Context, Methods, General Findings, and Future Efforts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolbe, Lloyd J.; And Others

1995-01-01

The School Health Policies and Programs Study assessed health education, physical education, health services, food service, and policies prohibiting violence, tobacco use, and alcohol and other drug use at state, district, school, and classroom levels. State questionnaires found several common themes across the components of school health…

Determining Science Student Teachers' Cognitive Structure on the Concept of "Food Chain"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çinar, Derya

2015-01-01

The current study aims to determine science student teachers' cognitive structure on the concept of food chain. Qualitative research method was applied in this study. Fallacies detected in the pre-service teachers' conceptual structures are believed to result in students' developing misconceptions in their future classes and will adversely affect…

Science Student Teachers' Cognitive Structure on the Concept of "Food Pyramid"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çinar, Derya

2016-01-01

The current study aims to determine science student teachers' cognitive structure on the concept of food pyramid. Qualitative research method was applied in this study. Fallacies detected in the pre-service teachers' conceptual structures are believed to result in students' developing misconceptions in their future classes and will adversely…

Perceptions and Practices of Data Sharing in Engineering Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johri, Aditya; Yang, Seungwon; Vorvoreanu, Mihaela; Madhavan, Krishna

2016-01-01

As part of our NSF funded collaborative project on Data Sharing within Engineering Education Community, we conducted an empirical study to better understand the current climate of data sharing and participants' future expectations of the field. We present findings of this mixed method study and discuss implications. Overall, we found strong…

Implementation and Outcomes of Inquiry-Based Learning in Mathematics Content Courses for Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laursen, Sandra L.; Hassi, Marja-Liisa; Hough, Sarah

2016-01-01

This mixed-methods study describes classroom characteristics and student outcomes from university mathematics courses that are based in mathematics departments, targeted to future pre-tertiary teachers, and taught with inquiry-based learning (IBL) approaches. The study focused on three two-term sequences taught at two research universities,…

Prediction of the future number of wells in production (in Spanish)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coca, B.P.

1981-01-01

A method to predict the number of wells that will continue producing at a certain date in the future is presented. The method is applicable to reservoirs of the depletion type and is based on the survival probability concept. This is useful when forecasting by empirical methods. An example of a field in primary production is presented.

Algebraic methods in system theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brockett, R. W.; Willems, J. C.; Willsky, A. S.

1975-01-01

Investigations on problems of the type which arise in the control of switched electrical networks are reported. The main results concern the algebraic structure and stochastic aspects of these systems. Future reports will contain more detailed applications of these results to engineering studies.

Future electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grönwall, Christina; Schwering, Piet B.; Rantakokko, Jouni; Benoist, Koen W.; Kemp, Rob A. W.; Steinvall, Ove; Letalick, Dietmar; Björkert, Stefan

2013-10-01

In the electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations (ESUO) study we pave the way for the European Defence Agency (EDA) group of Electro-Optics experts (IAP03) for a common understanding of the optimal distribution of processing functions between the different platforms. Combinations of local, distributed and centralized processing are proposed. In this way one can match processing functionality to the required power, and available communication systems data rates, to obtain the desired reaction times. In the study, three priority scenarios were defined. For these scenarios, present-day and future sensors and signal processing technologies were studied. The priority scenarios were camp protection, patrol and house search. A method for analyzing information quality in single and multi-sensor systems has been applied. A method for estimating reaction times for transmission of data through the chain of command has been proposed and used. These methods are documented and can be used to modify scenarios, or be applied to other scenarios. Present day data processing is organized mainly locally. Very limited exchange of information with other platforms is present; this is performed mainly at a high information level. Main issues that arose from the analysis of present-day systems and methodology are the slow reaction time due to the limited field of view of present-day sensors and the lack of robust automated processing. Efficient handover schemes between wide and narrow field of view sensors may however reduce the delay times. The main effort in the study was in forecasting the signal processing of EO-sensors in the next ten to twenty years. Distributed processing is proposed between hand-held and vehicle based sensors. This can be accompanied by cloud processing on board several vehicles. Additionally, to perform sensor fusion on sensor data originating from different platforms, and making full use of UAV imagery, a combination of distributed and centralized processing is essential. There is a central role for sensor fusion of heterogeneous sensors in future processing. The changes that occur in the urban operations of the future due to the application of these new technologies will be the improved quality of information, with shorter reaction time, and with lower operator load.

Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

PubMed

Ireland, Molly E; Schwartz, H Andrew; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle H; Albarracín, Dolores

2015-12-01

Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The future excess fraction of occupational cancer among those exposed to carcinogens at work in Australia in 2012.

PubMed

Carey, Renee N; Hutchings, Sally J; Rushton, Lesley; Driscoll, Timothy R; Reid, Alison; Glass, Deborah C; Darcey, Ellie; Si, Si; Peters, Susan; Benke, Geza; Fritschi, Lin

2017-04-01

Studies in other countries have generally found approximately 4% of current cancers to be attributable to past occupational exposures. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer resulting from current occupational exposures in Australia. The future excess fraction method was used to estimate the future burden of occupational cancer (2012-2094) among the proportion of the Australian working population who were exposed to occupational carcinogens in 2012. Calculations were conducted for 19 cancer types and 53 cancer-exposure pairings, assuming historical trends and current patterns continued to 2094. The cohort of 14.6 million Australians of working age in 2012 will develop an estimated 4.8 million cancers during their lifetime, of which 68,500 (1.4%) are attributable to occupational exposure in those exposed in 2012. The majority of these will be lung cancers (n=26,000), leukaemias (n=8000), and malignant mesotheliomas (n=7500). A significant proportion of future cancers will result from occupational exposures. This estimate is lower than previous estimates in the literature; however, our estimate is not directly comparable to past estimates of the occupational cancer burden because they describe different quantities - future cancers in currently exposed versus current cancers due to past exposures. The results of this study allow us to determine which current occupational exposures are most important, and where to target exposure prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia

PubMed Central

Strager, Michael P.; Strager, Jacquelyn M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Dunscomb, Judy K.; Kreps, Brad J.; Maxwell, Aaron E.

2015-01-01

Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts. PMID:26090883

Metabolic cartography: experimental quantification of metabolic fluxes from isotopic labelling studies.

PubMed

O'Grady, John; Schwender, Jörg; Shachar-Hill, Yair; Morgan, John A

2012-03-01

For the past decade, flux maps have provided researchers with an in-depth perspective on plant metabolism. As a rapidly developing field, significant headway has been made recently in computation, experimentation, and overall understanding of metabolic flux analysis. These advances are particularly applicable to the study of plant metabolism. New dynamic computational methods such as non-stationary metabolic flux analysis are finding their place in the toolbox of metabolic engineering, allowing more organisms to be studied and decreasing the time necessary for experimentation, thereby opening new avenues by which to explore the vast diversity of plant metabolism. Also, improved methods of metabolite detection and measurement have been developed, enabling increasingly greater resolution of flux measurements and the analysis of a greater number of the multitude of plant metabolic pathways. Methods to deconvolute organelle-specific metabolism are employed with increasing effectiveness, elucidating the compartmental specificity inherent in plant metabolism. Advances in metabolite measurements have also enabled new types of experiments, such as the calculation of metabolic fluxes based on (13)CO(2) dynamic labelling data, and will continue to direct plant metabolic engineering. Newly calculated metabolic flux maps reveal surprising and useful information about plant metabolism, guiding future genetic engineering of crops to higher yields. Due to the significant level of complexity in plants, these methods in combination with other systems biology measurements are necessary to guide plant metabolic engineering in the future.

Impedance measurement using a two-microphone, random-excitation method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Parrott, T. L.

1978-01-01

The feasibility of using a two-microphone, random-excitation technique for the measurement of acoustic impedance was studied. Equations were developed, including the effect of mean flow, which show that acoustic impedance is related to the pressure ratio and phase difference between two points in a duct carrying plane waves only. The impedances of a honeycomb ceramic specimen and a Helmholtz resonator were measured and compared with impedances obtained using the conventional standing-wave method. Agreement between the two methods was generally good. A sensitivity analysis was performed to pinpoint possible error sources and recommendations were made for future study. The two-microphone approach evaluated in this study appears to have some advantages over other impedance measuring techniques.

Application of theoretical methods to increase succinate production in engineered strains.

PubMed

Valderrama-Gomez, M A; Kreitmayer, D; Wolf, S; Marin-Sanguino, A; Kremling, A

2017-04-01

Computational methods have enabled the discovery of non-intuitive strategies to enhance the production of a variety of target molecules. In the case of succinate production, reviews covering the topic have not yet analyzed the impact and future potential that such methods may have. In this work, we review the application of computational methods to the production of succinic acid. We found that while a total of 26 theoretical studies were published between 2002 and 2016, only 10 studies reported the successful experimental implementation of any kind of theoretical knowledge. None of the experimental studies reported an exact application of the computational predictions. However, the combination of computational analysis with complementary strategies, such as directed evolution and comparative genome analysis, serves as a proof of concept and demonstrates that successful metabolic engineering can be guided by rational computational methods.

Bioinformatic analyses to select phenotype affecting polymorphisms in HTR2C gene.

PubMed

Piva, Francesco; Giulietti, Matteo; Baldelli, Luisa; Nardi, Bernardo; Bellantuono, Cesario; Armeni, Tatiana; Saccucci, Franca; Principato, Giovanni

2011-08-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in serotonin related genes influence mental disorders, responses to pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatments. In planning association studies, researchers that want to investigate new SNPs have to select some among a large number of candidates. Our aim is to guide researchers in the selection of the most likely phenotype affecting polymorphisms. Here, we studied serotonin receptor 2C (HTR2C) SNPs because, till now, only relatively few of about 2000 are investigated. We used the most updated and assessed bioinformatic tools to predict which variations can give rise to biological effects among 2450 HTR2C SNPs. We suggest 48 SNPs that are worth considering in future association studies in the field of psychiatry, psychology and pharmacogenomics. Moreover, our analyses point out the biological level probably affected, such as transcription, splicing, miRNA regulation and protein structure, thus allowing to suggest future molecular investigations. Although few association studies are available in literature, their results are in agreement with our predictions, showing that our selection methods can help to guide future association studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A study of best practices in promoting sustainable urbanization in China.

PubMed

Tan, Yongtao; Xu, Hui; Jiao, Liudan; Ochoa, J Jorge; Shen, Liyin

2017-05-15

In the past twenty years, various sustainable urban development policies and methods had been implemented within China, such that sustainable urbanization is now more widely accepted. Some of these policies and methods have been found to be successful in improving the sustainability of cities in China. Those practices can be defined as the best practices of sustainable urbanization, which can provide useful references for future urban developments. However, few existing studies examine how to learn from these best practices. Combining the methods of content analysis and social network analysis, this paper conducts a comprehensive study on 150 best practices of sustainable urbanization in China. The methods and outcomes of the 150 best practices are identified. The research findings demonstrate the statistics of categories, methods and outcomes of the 150 best practices and the main adopted methods. The achieved outcomes in different regions of China are also presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Fire and Fire Surrogates Study: Providing guidelines for fire in future forest watershed management decisions

Treesearch

Carleton B. Edminster; C. Phillip Weatherspoon; Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

As part of the 1998 Joint USDA/USDI Fire Science Program, the Fire and Fire Surrogates Study was proposed to establish and evaluate cross-comparisons of fuels treatment practices and techniques to reduce wildfire risk. This study evaluates prescribed fire, thinning, and various mechanical treatment methods for treating, removing, or using woody biomass. Site-specific...

Instructional Coaching in Higher Education: Partnering to Infuse ELL Instructional Practices into Social Studies Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thibault, Malissa

2017-01-01

As evidenced in the growing achievement gap between English language learners (ELLs) and their non-ELL counterparts, it is clear future teachers need to be better prepared to work with ELLs. This study examined the influence of infusing ELL strategies into methods courses through instructional coaching. This study was inspired by the larger…

The Convoy Model: Explaining Social Relations From a Multidisciplinary Perspective

PubMed Central

Antonucci, Toni C.

2014-01-01

Purpose of the Study: Social relations are a key aspect of aging and the life course. In this paper, we trace the scientific origins of the study of social relations, focusing in particular on research grounded in the convoy model. Design and Methods: We first briefly review and critique influential historical studies to illustrate how the scientific study of social relations developed. Next, we highlight early and current findings grounded in the convoy model that have provided key insights into theory, method, policy, and practice in the study of aging. Results: Early social relations research, while influential, lacked the combined approach of theoretical grounding and methodological rigor. Nevertheless, previous research findings, especially from anthropology, suggested the importance of social relations in the achievement of positive outcomes. Considering both life span and life course perspectives and grounded in a multidisciplinary perspective, the convoy model was developed to unify and consolidate scattered evidence while at the same time directing future empirical and applied research. Early findings are summarized, current evidence presented, and future directions projected. Implications: The convoy model has provided a useful framework in the study of aging, especially for understanding predictors and consequences of social relations across the life course. PMID:24142914

Measuring emotion socialization in schools.

PubMed

Horner, Christy G; Wallace, Tanner L

2013-10-01

Understanding how school personnel can best support students' development of communication skills around feelings is critical to long-term health outcomes. The measurement of emotion socialization in schools facilitates future research in this area; we review existing measures of emotion socialization to assess their applicability to school-based health studies. A content analysis of four emotion socialization measures was conducted. Inclusion criteria included: high frequency of use in prior research, established documentation of validity and reliability, and sufficient description of measurement procedures. Four dimensions emerged as particularly salient to a measure's future relevance and applicability to school-based health studies: (1) methods of measurement; (2) mode and agent of socialization; (3) type of emotion; and (4) structure versus function of socializing behavior. Future measurement strategies should address (1) the structures of emotion socializing processes; (2) diverse socializing agents such as teachers, peers, and administrators; (3) the intended functions of such processes; (4) student perceptions of and responses to such processes; and (5) the complex interactions of these factors across contexts. Strategies attending to these components will permit future studies of school-based emotion socializing processes to determine how they enhance health and reduce health risks. © 2013, American School Health Association.

A tension between genuine care and other duties: Swedish nursing students' views of their future work.

PubMed

Holmström, Inger; Larsson, Jan

2005-02-01

There is a current need for nurses to take on new roles due to changing health care policies, economic cut-backs and shortage of staff. It is therefore important to study nursing students' view of their future profession. The theoretical framework was contemporary theories of competence development, which has shown that people's understanding of their work is expressed in their actions. The aim of this study was to describe nursing students' understanding of their future professional role in health care. A purposeful sample of 12 nursing students wrote narratives. The texts were condensed in five steps using the Empirical Phenomenological Psychological Method. The essence of the students' view of their future work was A tension between genuine nursing care and other duties. Four themes constituted this essence: professional status, working conditions and stress, evidence-based nursing contra holistic care, teamwork, co-operation and disrespect, and intensive care instead of geriatrics. This study highlights pedagogic and practical problems that need to be constructively addressed. The nursing students' eagerness to care in a holistic way needs to be acknowledged and used in a fruitful way. This core function of nursing needs to be integrated with up-to-date nursing research.

Estimating externalities of biomass fuel cycles, Report 7

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.

1998-01-01

This report documents the analysis of the biomass fuel cycle, in which biomass is combusted to produce electricity. The major objectives of this study were: (1) to implement the methodological concepts which were developed in the Background Document (ORNL/RFF 1992) as a means of estimating the external costs and benefits of fuel cycles, and by so doing, to demonstrate their application to the biomass fuel cycle; (2) to develop, given the time and resources, a range of estimates of marginal (i.e., the additional or incremental) damages and benefits associated with selected impact-pathways from a new wood-fired power plant, using amore » representative benchmark technology, at two reference sites in the US; and (3) to assess the state of the information available to support energy decision making and the estimation of externalities, and by so doing, to assist in identifying gaps in knowledge and in setting future research agendas. The demonstration of methods, modeling procedures, and use of scientific information was the most important objective of this study. It provides an illustrative example for those who will, in the future, undertake studies of actual energy options and sites. As in most studies, a more comprehensive analysis could have been completed had budget constraints not been as severe. Particularly affected were the air and water transport modeling, estimation of ecological impacts, and economic valuation. However, the most important objective of the study was to demonstrate methods, as a detailed example for future studies. Thus, having severe budget constraints was appropriate from the standpoint that these studies could also face similar constraints. Consequently, an important result of this study is an indication of what can be done in such studies, rather than the specific numerical estimates themselves.« less

Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dillaman, Gary

2012-01-01

The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.

Behavior Risk Factors Among Russian Students.

PubMed

Anischenko, Aleksander; Arhangelskaya, Anna; Klenov, Michael; Burdukova, Ekaterina; Ogarev, Valrii; Ignatov, Nikolay; Osadchenko, Irina; Gurevich, Konstantin

2017-01-01

Purpose To analyze the prevalence of risk factors among Russian students. Methods In this study, 834 students were included from five Federal universities which were localized in four Federal regions of Russian Federation. Future doctors, school teachers, and wellness trainers were included in this study. Students were specifically asked about smoking, physical activity International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and food preference. Waist, hip, weight, and height were measured. Results The region of study and ethnic group were not influenced with respect to age and body mass index ( p > .1), while all other factors had a significant influence ( p < .05). High levels of smoking, hypodynamia, and motivation to intake of unhealthy food were found in medical students in comparison with those in future teachers and wellness instructors ( p < .05). The indicators of central obesity (due to levels of body mass index and waist-hip ratio) were found in medical students. Perspective Special programs to prevent the most common behavior risk factors in future medical doctors have to be designed.

Development, history, and future of automated cell counters.

PubMed

Green, Ralph; Wachsmann-Hogiu, Sebastian

2015-03-01

Modern automated hematology instruments use either optical methods (light scatter), impedance-based methods based on the Coulter principle (changes in electrical current induced by blood cells flowing through an electrically charged opening), or a combination of both optical and impedance-based methods. Progressive improvement in these instruments has allowed the enumeration and evaluation of blood cells with great accuracy, precision, and speed at very low cost. Future directions of hematology instrumentation include the addition of new parameters and the development of point-of-care instrumentation. In the future, in-vivo analysis of blood cells may allow noninvasive and near-continuous measurements. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea.

PubMed

Kolstad, Erik W; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-03-01

Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099. Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.

Impacts of future radiation management scenarios on terrestrial carbon dynamics simulated with fully coupled NorESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Altug; Tjiputra, Jerry; Grini, Alf; Muri, Helene

2017-04-01

We have simulated 3 different radiation management geoengineering methods (CCT - cirrus cloud thinning; SAI - stratospheric aerosol injection; MSB - marine sky brightening) on top of future RCP8.5 scenario with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A globally consistent cooling in both atmosphere and soil is observed with all methods. However, precipitation patterns are dependent on the used method. Globally CCT and MSB methods do not affect the vegetation carbon budget, while SAI leads to a loss compared to RCP8.5 simulations. Spatially the most sensitive region is the tropics. Here, the changes in vegetation carbon content are related to the precipitation changes. Increase in soil carbon is projected in all three methods, the biggest change seen in SAI method. Simulations with CCT method leads to twice as much soil carbon retention in the tropics compared to the MSB method. Our findings show that there are unforeseen regional consequences of such geoengineering methods in the biogeochemical cycles and they should be considered with care in future climate policies.

Predicting the past: a simple reverse stand table projection method

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

A stand table gives number of trees in each diameter class. Future stand tables can be predicted from current stand tables using a stand table projection method. In the simplest form of this method, a future stand table can be expressed as the product of a matrix of transitional proportions (based on diameter growth rates) and a vector of the current stand table. There...

Cultural Diversity in the Workplace: The State of the Field.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fine, Marlene G.

1996-01-01

Reviews three broad categories of research on cultural diversity in the workplace: general overviews, theoretical perspectives, and empirical research studies. Offers an explanation for the paucity of research on the topic, and suggests topics and methods for future research. (SR)

MORTALITY RISK VALUATION AND STATED PREFERENCE METHODS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The purposes of this project are: (1) to improve understanding of cognitive processes involved in the valuation of mortality risk reductions that occur in an environmental pollution context, and (2) to translate this understanding into survey language appropriate for future stat...

The Biomarkers of Exposure and Effect in Agriculture (BEEA) Study: Rationale, design, methods, and participant characteristics

EPA Science Inventory

Agricultural exposures including pesticides, endotoxin, and allergens have been associated with risk of various cancers and other chronic diseases, although the biological mechanisms underlying these associations are generally unclear. To facilitate future molecular epidemiologic...

Evaluation of a CFD Method for Aerodynamic Database Development using the Hyper-X Stack Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parikh, Paresh; Engelund, Walter; Armand, Sasan; Bittner, Robert

2004-01-01

A computational fluid dynamic (CFD) study is performed on the Hyper-X (X-43A) Launch Vehicle stack configuration in support of the aerodynamic database generation in the transonic to hypersonic flow regime. The main aim of the study is the evaluation of a CFD method that can be used to support aerodynamic database development for similar future configurations. The CFD method uses the NASA Langley Research Center developed TetrUSS software, which is based on tetrahedral, unstructured grids. The Navier-Stokes computational method is first evaluated against a set of wind tunnel test data to gain confidence in the code s application to hypersonic Mach number flows. The evaluation includes comparison of the longitudinal stability derivatives on the complete stack configuration (which includes the X-43A/Hyper-X Research Vehicle, the launch vehicle and an adapter connecting the two), detailed surface pressure distributions at selected locations on the stack body and component (rudder, elevons) forces and moments. The CFD method is further used to predict the stack aerodynamic performance at flow conditions where no experimental data is available as well as for component loads for mechanical design and aero-elastic analyses. An excellent match between the computed and the test data over a range of flow conditions provides a computational tool that may be used for future similar hypersonic configurations with confidence.

The coordinate-based meta-analysis of neuroimaging data.

PubMed

Samartsidis, Pantelis; Montagna, Silvia; Nichols, Thomas E; Johnson, Timothy D

2017-01-01

Neuroimaging meta-analysis is an area of growing interest in statistics. The special characteristics of neuroimaging data render classical meta-analysis methods inapplicable and therefore new methods have been developed. We review existing methodologies, explaining the benefits and drawbacks of each. A demonstration on a real dataset of emotion studies is included. We discuss some still-open problems in the field to highlight the need for future research.

The coordinate-based meta-analysis of neuroimaging data

PubMed Central

Samartsidis, Pantelis; Montagna, Silvia; Nichols, Thomas E.; Johnson, Timothy D.

2017-01-01

Neuroimaging meta-analysis is an area of growing interest in statistics. The special characteristics of neuroimaging data render classical meta-analysis methods inapplicable and therefore new methods have been developed. We review existing methodologies, explaining the benefits and drawbacks of each. A demonstration on a real dataset of emotion studies is included. We discuss some still-open problems in the field to highlight the need for future research. PMID:29545671

Does Mathletics, a Supplementary Digital Math Tool, Improve Student Learning and Teaching Methods at Three Private Catholic Schools in Florida?--A Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephan, Kelly Purdy

2017-01-01

Improving mathematical student performance in K-12 education has been a focus in the U.S. Students in the U.S. score lower on standardized math assessments than students in other countries. Preparing students for a successful future in a global society requires schools to integrate effective digital technologies in math classroom curricula.…

Parental Concerns about the Health of Adolescents with Intellectual Disability: A Brief Report

PubMed Central

Tucker, Madonna; Taylor Gomez, Miriam; Rey-Conde, Therese; Lennox, Nicholas

2011-01-01

Background. Parents of adolescents with intellectual disability are concerned about the future health and well-being needs of their children. Method. Qualitative data was collected as part of a cross-sectional descriptive study and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 32 parents. The results were themed. Results. Most parents discussed areas of their children's health which made them anxious about the future. These concerns were collated into five themes. Conclusion. The health and well-being themes were dependency, general health, challenging behaviours, and increasing support needs. PMID:22295180

Perspectives on the Future Search for Life on Mars and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nealson, K. H.

1998-01-01

One can view the search for life on Mars in two ways: first, as the initial step in the search for life elsewhere, and second, as the one place where in situ methods for life detection can be tested and proved via sample return. After Mars, most of the life detection will he done via in situ studies with data return. Mars offers us the opportunity to fine tune our methods - perhaps for a long time to come. Our group is involved in the development of methods for life detection that are independent of specific signals used for detection of life on Earth. These approaches include general indicators of metabolic activity and organismal structure and composition. Using such approaches, we hope to detect the signals of life (biosignatures) that are independent of preconceived notions and yet are convincing and unambiguous. The approaches we are focusing on include stable isotopic analyses of metals, mineral formation and disolution, and elemental analysis. These methods allow us to examine samples at a variety of scales, looking for nonequilibrium distribution of elements that serve as biosignatures. For futures studies of Mars and beyond, they, or some variation of them, should allow inference or proof of life in non-Earth locations.

The Future of Wind Energy in California: Future Projections in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.; Millstein, D.; Collier, C.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the wind energy characterization and future projection at five primary wind turbine sites in California. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to analyze the trends and variations in wind energy under climate change. Datasets from Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Llyod (DNV GL), MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, as well as surface observational data were used for model validation and comparison. Significant seasonal wind speed changes under RCP8.5 were detected from several wind farm sites. Large-scale patterns were then investigated to analyze the synoptic-scale impact on localized wind change. The agglomerative clustering method was applied to analyze and group different wind patterns. The associated meteorological background of each cluster was investigated to analyze the drivers of different wind patterns. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

Alternative futures of proactive tools for a citizen's own wellbeing.

PubMed

Meristö, Tarja; Tuohimaa, Hanna; Leppimäki, Sami; Laitinen, Jukka

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to create the basis for a vision of an empowered citizen who can control his/her life, especially in relation to health and personal wellbeing with the use of new ICT-tools. The methods used in the study are based on futures studies, especially on scenario methodology. Alternative future paths, i.e. scenarios are constructed using the scenario filter model that we have developed, with market, technology and society perspectives. Scenarios not resulting in the vision are described in what if - analysis as well. The scenarios are combined with Viherä's model on citizen's skills, access and motivation to use new ICT-tools. The concept COPER is targeted to different user groups with an adaptable user interface and its development is user centered. We will consider the effects and the appropriate elements of COPER in every scenario, as well as the possibilities and challenges nursing will confront. As a result we will gain information of the characteristic of COPER that advance the vision. For the future development of COPER the alternative scenarios give the basis for flexibility planning, too.

A temperature match based optimization method for daily load prediction considering DLC effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Z.

This paper presents a unique optimization method for short term load forecasting. The new method is based on the optimal template temperature match between the future and past temperatures. The optimal error reduction technique is a new concept introduced in this paper. Two case studies show that for hourly load forecasting, this method can yield results as good as the rather complicated Box-Jenkins Transfer Function method, and better than the Box-Jenkins method; for peak load prediction, this method is comparable in accuracy to the neural network method with back propagation, and can produce more accurate results than the multi-linear regressionmore » method. The DLC effect on system load is also considered in this method.« less

Towards an operational definition of pharmacy clinical competency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Charles Allen

The scope of pharmacy practice and the training of future pharmacists have undergone a strategic shift over the last few decades. The pharmacy profession recognizes greater pharmacist involvement in patient care activities. Towards this strategic objective, pharmacy schools are training future pharmacists to meet these new clinical demands. Pharmacy students have clerkships called Advanced Pharmacy Practice Experiences (APPEs), and these clerkships account for 30% of the professional curriculum. APPEs provide the only opportunity for students to refine clinical skills under the guidance of an experienced pharmacist. Nationwide, schools of pharmacy need to evaluate whether students have successfully completed APPEs and are ready treat patients. Schools are left to their own devices to develop assessment programs that demonstrate to the public and regulatory agencies, students are clinically competent prior to graduation. There is no widely accepted method to evaluate whether these assessment programs actually discriminate between the competent and non-competent students. The central purpose of this study is to demonstrate a rigorous method to evaluate the validity and reliability of APPE assessment programs. The method introduced in this study is applicable to a wide variety of assessment programs. To illustrate this method, the study evaluated new performance criteria with a novel rating scale. The study had two main phases. In the first phase, a Delphi panel was created to bring together expert opinions. Pharmacy schools nominated exceptional preceptors to join a Delphi panel. Delphi is a method to achieve agreement of complex issues among experts. The principal researcher recruited preceptors representing a variety of practice settings and geographical regions. The Delphi panel evaluated and refined the new performance criteria. In the second phase, the study produced a novel set of video vignettes that portrayed student performances based on recommendations of an expert panel. Pharmacy preceptors assessed the performances with the new performance criteria. Estimates of reliability and accuracy from preceptors' assessments can be used to establish benchmarks for future comparisons. Findings from the first phase suggested preceptors held a unique perspective, where APPE assessments are based in relevance to clinical activities. The second phase analyzed assessment results from pharmacy preceptors who watched the video simulations. Reliability results were higher for non-randomized compared to randomized video simulations. Accuracy results showed preceptors more readily identified high and low student performances compared to average students. These results indicated the need for pharmacy preceptor training in performance assessment. The study illustrated a rigorous method to evaluate the validity and reliability of APPE assessment instruments.

The effect of future time perspective on delay discounting is mediated by the gray matter volume of vmPFC.

PubMed

Guo, Yiqun; Chen, Zhiyi; Feng, Tingyong

2017-07-28

Although several previous studies have shown that individuals' attitude towards time could affect their intertemporal preference, little is known about the neural basis of the relation between time perspective (TP) and delay discounting. In the present study, we quantified the gray matter (GM) cortical volume using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) methods to investigate the effect of TP on delay discounting (DD) across two independent samples. For group 1 (102 healthy college students; 46 male; 20.40 ± 1.87 years), behavioral results showed that only Future TP was a significant predictor of DD, and higher scores on Future TP were related to lower discounting rates. Whole-brain analysis revealed that steeper discounting correlated with greater GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral part of posterior cingulate cortex (vPCC). Also, GM volume of a cluster in the vmPFC was correlated with Future TP. Interestingly, there was an overlapping region in vmPFC that was correlated with both DD and Future TP. Region-of-interest analysis further indicated that the overlapping region of vmPFC played a partially mediating role in the relation between Future TP and DD in the other independent dataset (Group 2, 36 healthy college students; 14 male; 20.18±1.80 years). Taken together, our results provide a new perspective from neural basis for explaining the relation between DD and future TP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meditation research, past, present, and future: perspectives from the Nalanda contemplative science tradition

PubMed Central

Loizzo, Joseph

2014-01-01

This article offers an overview of meditation research: its history, recent developments, and future directions. As the number and scope of studies grow, the field has converged with cognitive and affective neuroscience, and spawned many clinical applications. Recent work has shed light on the mechanisms and effects of diverse practices, and is entering a new phase where consensus and coherent paradigms are within reach. This article suggests an unusual path for future advancement: complementing conventional research with rigorous dialogue with the contemplative traditions that train expert meditators and best know the techniques. It explores the Nalanda tradition developed in India and preserved in Tibet, because its cumulative approach to contemplative methods produced a comprehensive framework that may help interpret data and guide research, and because its naturalistic theories and empirical methods may help bridge the gulf between science and other contemplative traditions. Examining recent findings and models in light of this framework, the article introduces the Indic map of the central nervous system and presents three testable predictions based on it. Finally, it reviews two studies that suggest that the multimodal Nalanda approach to contemplative learning is as well received as more familiar approaches, while showing promise of being more effective. PMID:24673149

Effectiveness guidance document (EGD) for Chinese medicine trials: a consensus document

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for more Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) on Chinese medicine (CM) to inform clinical and policy decision-making. This document aims to provide consensus advice for the design of CER trials on CM for researchers. It broadly aims to ensure more adequate design and optimal use of resources in generating evidence for CM to inform stakeholder decision-making. Methods The Effectiveness Guidance Document (EGD) development was based on multiple consensus procedures (survey, written Delphi rounds, interactive consensus workshop, international expert review). To balance aspects of internal and external validity, multiple stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, researchers and payers were involved in creating this document. Results Recommendations were developed for “using available data” and “future clinical studies”. The recommendations for future trials focus on randomized trials and cover the following areas: designing CER studies, treatments, expertise and setting, outcomes, study design and statistical analyses, economic evaluation, and publication. Conclusion The present EGD provides the first systematic methodological guidance for future CER trials on CM and can be applied to single or multi-component treatments. While CONSORT statements provide guidelines for reporting studies, EGDs provide recommendations for the design of future studies and can contribute to a more strategic use of limited research resources, as well as greater consistency in trial design. PMID:24885146

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milesi, Cristina; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Rath, John; Mills, William; Roy, Sujoy; Thrasher, Bridget; Wang, Weile; Chiang, Felicia; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James

2014-01-01

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Sexual risk behaviors and acceptability of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men in serodiscordant relationships: a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Brooks, Ronald A; Landovitz, Raphael J; Kaplan, Rachel L; Lieber, Eli; Lee, Sung-Jae; Barkley, Thomas W

2012-02-01

The objective of this mixed methods study was to examine current sexual risk behaviors, acceptability and potential adoption of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention, and sexual behavior intentions with PrEP adoption among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men (GBM) in HIV serodiscordant relationships. A multiracial/ethnic sample of 25 HIV-negative GBM in serodiscordant relationships completed a qualitative interview and a brief interviewer-administered survey. A modified grounded theory approach was used to identify key themes relating to acceptability and future adoption of PrEP. Participants reported engaging in sexual risk behaviors that place them at risk for HIV infection. Participants also reported a high level of acceptability for PrEP and willingness to adopt PrEP for HIV prevention. Qualitative themes explaining future PrEP adoption included: (1) the opportunity to engage in sex using a noncondom HIV prevention method, (2) protection from HIV infection, and (3) less anxiety when engaging in sex with an HIV-positive partner. Associated with the future adoption of PrEP, a majority (64%) of participants indicated the likelihood for an increase in sexual risk behaviors and a majority (60%) of participants also indicated the likelihood for a decrease or abandonment of condom use, both of which are in contrast to the findings from the large iPrEx study. These findings suggest that the use of PrEP by HIV-negative GBM in serodiscordant relationships carries with it the potential for risk compensation. The findings suggest that PrEP only be offered as part of a comprehensive HIV prevention strategy that includes ongoing risk reduction counseling in the delivery of PrEP to help moderate risk compensation.

Spread Spectrum Receiver Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) Test Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark L.

1998-01-01

This program consisted of: (1) a study to define appropriate EMI test guidelines and test methods for direct sequence (DS) spread spectrum receivers; and (2) preparation of a written test guide to document the recommended test methods. The scope of this test guide includes: (1) a discussion of generic DS receiver performance characteristics; (2) a summary of S-band TDRSS receiver operation; (3) a discussion of DS receiver EMI susceptibility mechanisms and characteristics; (4) a summary of military standard test guidelines; (5) recommended test approach and methods; and (6) general conclusions and recommendations for future studies in the area of spread spectrum receiver testing.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

PubMed

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

Testing an alternate informed consent process.

PubMed

Yates, Bernice C; Dodendorf, Diane; Lane, Judy; LaFramboise, Louise; Pozehl, Bunny; Duncan, Kathleen; Knodel, Kendra

2009-01-01

One of the main problems in conducting clinical trials is low participation rate due to potential participants' misunderstanding of the rationale for the clinical trial or perceptions of loss of control over treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to test an alternate informed consent process in cardiac rehabilitation participants that involved the use of a multimedia flip chart to describe a future randomized clinical trial and then asked, hypothetically, if they would participate in the future trial. An attractive and inviting visual presentation of the study was created in the form of a 23-page flip chart that included 24 color photographs displaying information about the purpose of the study, similarities and differences between the two treatment groups, and the data collection process. We tested the flip chart in 35 cardiac rehabilitation participants. Participants were asked if they would participate in this future study on two occasions: immediately after the description of the flip chart and 24 hours later, after reading through the informed consent document. Participants were also asked their perceptions of the flip chart and consent process. Of the 35 participants surveyed, 19 (54%) indicated that they would participate in the future study. No participant changed his or her decision 24 hours later after reading the full consent form. The participation rate improved 145% over that of an earlier feasibility study where the recruitment rate was 22%. Most participants stated that the flip chart was helpful and informative and that the photographs were effective in communicating the purpose of the study. Participation rates could be enhanced in future clinical trials by using a visual presentation to explain and describe the study as part of the informed consent process. More research is needed to test alternate methods of obtaining informed consent.

Adoption of computer-assisted learning in medical education: the educators' perspective.

PubMed

Schifferdecker, Karen E; Berman, Norm B; Fall, Leslie H; Fischer, Martin R

2012-11-01

Computer-assisted learning (CAL) in medical education has been shown to be effective in the achievement of learning outcomes, but requires the input of significant resources and development time. This study examines the key elements and processes that led to the widespread adoption of a CAL program in undergraduate medical education, the Computer-assisted Learning in Paediatrics Program (CLIPP). It then considers the relative importance of elements drawn from existing theories and models for technology adoption and other studies on CAL in medical education to inform the future development, implementation and testing of CAL programs in medical education. The study used a mixed-methods explanatory design. All paediatric clerkship directors (CDs) using CLIPP were recruited to participate in a self-administered, online questionnaire. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted with a random sample of CDs to further explore the quantitative results. Factors that facilitated adoption included CLIPP's ability to fill gaps in exposure to core clinical problems, the use of a national curriculum, development by CDs, and the meeting of CDs' desires to improve teaching and student learning. An additional facilitating factor was that little time and effort were needed to implement CLIPP within a clerkship. The quantitative findings were mostly corroborated by the qualitative findings. This study indicates issues that are important in the consideration and future exploration of the development and implementation of CAL programs in medical education. The promise of CAL as a method of enhancing the process and outcomes of medical education, and its cost, increase the need for future CAL funders and developers to pay equal attention to the needs of potential adopters and the development process as they do to the content and tools in the CAL program. Important questions that remain on the optimal design, use and integration of CAL should be addressed in order to adequately inform future development. Support is needed for studies that address these critical areas. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

Validation and Clinical Evaluation of a Novel Method To Measure Miltefosine in Leishmaniasis Patients Using Dried Blood Spot Sample Collection

PubMed Central

Rosing, H.; Hillebrand, M. J. X.; Blesson, S.; Mengesha, B.; Diro, E.; Hailu, A.; Schellens, J. H. M.; Beijnen, J. H.

2016-01-01

To facilitate future pharmacokinetic studies of combination treatments against leishmaniasis in remote regions in which the disease is endemic, a simple cheap sampling method is required for miltefosine quantification. The aims of this study were to validate a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method to quantify miltefosine in dried blood spot (DBS) samples and to validate its use with Ethiopian patients with visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Since hematocrit (Ht) levels are typically severely decreased in VL patients, returning to normal during treatment, the method was evaluated over a range of clinically relevant Ht values. Miltefosine was extracted from DBS samples using a simple method of pretreatment with methanol, resulting in >97% recovery. The method was validated over a calibration range of 10 to 2,000 ng/ml, and accuracy and precision were within ±11.2% and ≤7.0% (≤19.1% at the lower limit of quantification), respectively. The method was accurate and precise for blood spot volumes between 10 and 30 μl and for Ht levels of 20 to 35%, although a linear effect of Ht levels on miltefosine quantification was observed in the bioanalytical validation. DBS samples were stable for at least 162 days at 37°C. Clinical validation of the method using paired DBS and plasma samples from 16 VL patients showed a median observed DBS/plasma miltefosine concentration ratio of 0.99, with good correlation (Pearson's r = 0.946). Correcting for patient-specific Ht levels did not further improve the concordance between the sampling methods. This successfully validated method to quantify miltefosine in DBS samples was demonstrated to be a valid and practical alternative to venous blood sampling that can be applied in future miltefosine pharmacokinetic studies with leishmaniasis patients, without Ht correction. PMID:26787691

Ecological momentary assessment: what it is and why it is a method of the future in clinical psychopharmacology

PubMed Central

Moskowitz, Debbie S.; Young, Simon N.

2006-01-01

Current methods of assessment in clinical psychopharmacology have several serious disadvantages, particularly for the study of social functioning. We aimed to review the strengths and weaknesses of current methods used in clinical psychopharmacology and to compare them with a group of methods, developed by personality/social psychologists, termed ecological momentary assessment (EMA), which permit the research participant to report on symptoms, affect and behaviour close in time to experience and which sample many events or time periods. EMA has a number of advantages over more traditional methods for the assessment of patients in clinical psychopharmacological studies. It can both complement and, in part, replace existing methods. EMA methods will permit more sensitive assessments and will enable more wide-ranging and detailed measurements of mood and behaviour. These types of methods should be adopted more widely by clinical psychopharmacology researchers. PMID:16496031

Challenging Futures Studies To Enhance Participatory River Basin Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Helm, R.

Can the field of futures research help advance participatory management of river basins? This question is supposed to be answered by the present study of which this paper will mainly address the theoretical and conceptual point of view. The 2000 EU Framework directive on water emphasises at least two aspects that will mark the future management of river basins: the need for long-term planning, and a demand for participation. Neither the former nor the latter are new concepts as such, but its combination is in some sense revolutionary. Can long-term plans be made (and implemented) in a participative way, what tools could be useful in this respect, and does this lead to a satisfactory situation in terms of both reaching physical targets and enhancing social-institutional manageability? A possibly rich way to enter the discussion is to challenge futures research as a concept and a practice for enabling multiple stakeholders to design appropriate policies. Futures research is the overall field in which several methods and techniques (like scenario analysis) are mobilised to systematically think through and/or design the future. As such they have proven to be rich exercises to trigger ideas, stimulate debate and design desirable futures (and how to get there). More importantly these exercises have the capability to reconstitute actor relations, and by nature go beyond the institutional boundaries. Arguably the relation between futures research and the planning process is rather distant. Understandably commitments on the direct implementation of the results are hardly ever made, but its impact on changes in the capabilities of the network of actors involved may be large. As a hypothesis we consider that the distant link between an image of the future and the implementation in policy creates sufficient distance for actors to participate (in terms of responsibilities, legal constraints, etc.) and generate potentials, and enough degrees of freedom needed for a successful implementation. However, critical conceptual and design requirements have to be met in order to realise futures research potentials. Since the beginning of the 1990s futures studies are becoming (again) more and more widespread in many different domains (technology, education, urban development, agriculture, environment, etc.). Recently, experiences have been launched and are currently being launched in the water sector (of which the World Water Vision is a well -known - but not necessarily the most representative - example). Although futures studies on a river basin level are still scarce, they will offer already sufficient material for empirical analysis. The research, effectuated within a larger framework study on the implications of futures studies for environmental research, offers at this stage initially a conceptual understanding.

Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

2016-04-01

In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Songs of Despair: A Case Study of Adolescent Suicide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sapp, Allen D.

This report outlines the extent of the problem of adolescent suicide in the United States, noting that suicide is the third leading cause of death among adolescents in this country and that the rate of suicide by adolescents is expected to continue to increase in the future. It examines one adolescent suicide, using the case study method, to…

Career and Technical Education at a Crossroads: A Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutright, Michael W.

2011-01-01

Career and technical education in the United States has reached a critical juncture. A three round Delphi method was used to determine a consensus on the future events of career and technical education to better inform educational decision makers. Forty-one individual experts in the field were invited to serve as panelists for the Delphi study and…

Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loyens, Kim; Maesschalck, Jeroen; Bouckaert, Geert

2011-01-01

This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social…

A review of recent studies on differential reinforcement during skill acquisition in early intervention.

PubMed

Vladescu, Jason C; Kodak, Tiffany

2010-01-01

Although the use of differential reinforcement has been recommended in previous investigations and in early intervention curriculum manuals, few studies have evaluated the best method for providing differential reinforcement to maximize independent responding. This paper reviews previous research on the effectiveness of differential reinforcement as treatment and describes important areas of future research.

Three-Year Study of Students' Attitudes toward Physical Education: Grades 4-8

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercier, Kevin; Donovan, Corinne; Gibbone, Anne; Rozga, Kimberly

2017-01-01

Purpose: A relationship exists between attitudes toward physical education and future physical activity. The purpose of this study was to examine changes in attitude toward physical education as students progressed from upper elementary school (Grade 4) through middle school (Grade 8). Method: Three cohorts of students (Cohort 1, Grades 4-6,…

Remote Capture of Human Voice Acoustical Data by Telephone: A Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannizzaro, Michael S.; Reilly, Nicole; Mundt, James C.; Snyder, Peter J.

2005-01-01

In this pilot study we sought to determine the reliability and validity of collecting speech and voice acoustical data via telephone transmission for possible future use in large clinical trials. Simultaneous recordings of each participant's speech and voice were made at the point of participation, the local recording (LR), and over a telephone…

The Semiconductor Industry and Emerging Technologies: A Study Using a Modified Delphi Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jordan, Edgar A.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to determine what leaders in the semiconductor industry thought the future of computing would look like and what emerging materials showed the most promise to overcome the current theoretical limit of 10 nanometers for silicon dioxide. The researcher used a modified Delphi technique in two…

A Proposal of a Method to Measure and Evaluate the Effect to Apply External Support Measures for Owners by Construction Management Method, etc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tada, Hiroshi; Miyatake, Ichiro; Mouri, Junji; Ajiki, Norihiko; Fueta, Toshiharu

In Japan, various approaches have been taken to ensure the quality of public works or to support the procurement regime of the governmental agencies, as a means to utilize external resources, which include the procurement support service or the construction management (CM) method. Although discussions on these measures to utilize external resources (hereinafter referred to as external support measure) have been going on, as well as the follow-up surveys showing the positive effects of such measures have been conducted, the surveys only deal with the matters concerning the overall effects of the external support measure on the whole, meaning that the effect of each item of the tasks have not been addressed, and that the extent it dealt with the expectations of the client is unknown. However, the effective use of the external support measure in future cannot be achieved without knowing what was the purpose to introduce the external support measure, and what effect was expected on each task item, and what extent the expectation fulfilled. Furthermore, it is important to clarify not only the effect as compared to the client's expectation (performance), but also the public benefit of this measure (value improvement). From this point of view, there is not an established method to figure out the effect of the client's measure to utilize external resources. In view of this background, this study takes the CM method as an example of the external support measure, and proposes a method to measure and evaluate the effect by each task item, and suggests the future issues and possible responses, in the aim of contributing the promotion, improvement, and proper implementation of the external support measures in future.

The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Hong S. He; Heike Lischke; Wen J. Wang; Wenchi Jin; Eric J. Gustafson; Jonathan R. Thompson; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jian Yang

2017-01-01

Context. Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent. Objectives. We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities. Methods. We reviewed...

Emerging Trends in Phosphorene Fabrication towards Next Generation Devices

PubMed Central

Dhanabalan, Sathish Chander; Ponraj, Joice Sophia; Guo, Zhinan

2017-01-01

The challenge of science and technology is to design and make materials that will dominate the future of our society. In this context, black phosphorus has emerged as a new, intriguing two‐dimensional (2D) material, together with its monolayer, which is referred to as phosphorene. The exploration of this new 2D material demands various fabrication methods to achieve potential applications— this demand motivated this review. This article is aimed at supplementing the concrete understanding of existing phosphorene fabrication techniques, which forms the foundation for a variety of applications. Here, the major issue of the degradation encountered in realizing devices based on few‐layered black phosphorus and phosphorene is reviewed. The prospects of phosphorene in future research are also described by discussing its significance and explaining ways to advance state‐of‐art of phosphorene‐based devices. In addition, a detailed presentation on the demand for future studies to promote well‐systemized fabrication methods towards large‐area, high‐yield and perfectly protected phosphorene for the development of reliable devices in optoelectronic applications and other areas is offered. PMID:28638779

Higher Education Students’ Behaviour to Adopt Mobile Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batmetan, J. R.; Palilingan, V. R.

2018-02-01

Mobile phone is an electronic device most often used by Y generation in Indonesia. This ages have become an important part in the growth of higher education in this country. The problem raised in this study is that very few students in higher education are adopting and accessing digital learning content using mobile phones. The objective of this study is to investigate the higher education students’ behaviour in using mobile learning. The research method used is Structural equation models (SEM) method to analyse the factors that influence higher education students’ behaviour in using mobile learning. The results of this study indicate tends of this student 85% to keep internet access in privacy. The majority of respondent is 78% having behaviour to keep adopting mobile learning and still use it in the future. Why? because this study shows that on the level of usability, easy to use, easy to learn, in various devices have a significant effect on the level of adoption of mobile learning. Implication of this study is higher education students’ behaviour of especially Y generation tends to prioritize the usability towards mobile learning and will continue to adopt mobile learning in the future.

Determining the multi-scale hedge ratios of stock index futures using the lower partial moments method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Jun; Zhou, Haigang; Zhao, Shaoquan

2017-01-01

This paper considers a multi-scale future hedge strategy that minimizes lower partial moments (LPM). To do this, wavelet analysis is adopted to decompose time series data into different components. Next, different parametric estimation methods with known distributions are applied to calculate the LPM of hedged portfolios, which is the key to determining multi-scale hedge ratios over different time scales. Then these parametric methods are compared with the prevailing nonparametric kernel metric method. Empirical results indicate that in the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and spot markets, hedge ratios and hedge efficiency estimated by the nonparametric kernel metric method are inferior to those estimated by parametric hedging model based on the features of sequence distributions. In addition, if minimum-LPM is selected as a hedge target, the hedging periods, degree of risk aversion, and target returns can affect the multi-scale hedge ratios and hedge efficiency, respectively.

Guidelines for research on drugged driving

PubMed Central

Walsh, J. Michael; Verstraete, Alain G.; Huestis, Marilyn A.; Mørland, Jørg

2009-01-01

Aim A major problem in assessing the true public health impact of drug-use on driving and overall traffic safety is that the variables being measured across studies vary significantly. In studies reported in a growing global literature, basic parameters assessed, analytical techniques and drugs tested are simply not comparable due to lack of standardization in the field. These shortcomings severely limit the value of this research to add knowledge to the field. A set of standards to harmonize research findings is sorely needed. This project was initiated by several international organizations to develop guidelines for research on drugged driving. Methods A September 2006 meeting of international experts discussed the harmonization of protocols for future research on drugged driving. The principal objective of the meeting was to develop a consensus report setting guidelines, standards, core data variables and other controls that would form the basis for future international research. A modified Delphi method was utilized to develop draft guidelines. Subsequently, these draft guidelines were posted on the internet for global review, and comments received were integrated into the final document. Results The Guidelines Document is divided into three major sections, each focusing upon different aspects of drugged driving research (e.g. roadside surveys, prevalence studies, hospital studies, fatality and crash investigations, etc.) within the critical issue areas of ‘behavior’, ‘epidemiology’ and ‘toxicology’. The behavioral section contains 32 specific recommendations; (2) epidemiology 40 recommendations; and (3) toxicology 64 recommendations. Conclusions It is anticipated that these guidelines will improve significantly the overall quality of drugged driving research and facilitate future cross-study comparisons nationally and globally. PMID:18855814

Self-Directed Adult Learning: A Critical Paradigm Revisited.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caffarella, Rosemary S.; O'Donnell, Judith M.

1987-01-01

Seeks to analyze and categorize both data-based and conceptual articles on self-directed learning. Covers (1) verification studies, (2) nature of the method, (3) nature of the learner, (4) nature of the philosophical position, and (5) policy. Suggests future research topics. (Author/CH)

Tradition in Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heisenberg, Werner

1973-01-01

Discusses the influence of tradition in science on selection of scientific problems and methods and on the use of concepts as tools for research work. Indicates that future research studies will be directed toward the change of fundamental concepts in such fields as astrophysics, molecular biology, and environmental science. (CC)

Structured Observation of School Administrator Work Activities: Methodological Limitations and Recommendations for Research, Part II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitner, Nancy J.; Russell, James S.

1986-01-01

This paper critically reviews administrator work activity studies which follow the research of Henry Mintzberg. It discusses directions for future research using qualitative and quantitative methods and discourages research that relies solely on Mintzberg's structure. (Author/JAZ)

Methodological Issues in Research on Web-Based Behavioral Interventions

PubMed Central

Danaher, Brian G; Seeley, John R

2013-01-01

Background Web-based behavioral intervention research is rapidly growing. Purpose We review methodological issues shared across Web-based intervention research to help inform future research in this area. Methods We examine measures and their interpretation using exemplar studies and our research. Results We report on research designs used to evaluate Web-based interventions and recommend newer, blended designs. We review and critique methodological issues associated with recruitment, engagement, and social validity. Conclusions We suggest that there is value to viewing this burgeoning realm of research from the broader context of behavior change research. We conclude that many studies use blended research designs, that innovative mantling designs such as the Multiphase Optimization Strategy and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial methods hold considerable promise and should be used more widely, and that Web-based controls should be used instead of usual care or no-treatment controls in public health research. We recommend topics for future research that address participant recruitment, engagement, and social validity. PMID:19806416

Driver Behavior and Performance with Augmented Reality Pedestrian Collision Warning: An Outdoor User Study.

PubMed

Kim, Hyungil; Gabbard, Joseph L; Anon, Alexandre Miranda; Misu, Teruhisa

2018-04-01

This article investigates the effects of visual warning presentation methods on human performance in augmented reality (AR) driving. An experimental user study was conducted in a parking lot where participants drove a test vehicle while braking for any cross traffic with assistance from AR visual warnings presented on a monoscopic and volumetric head-up display (HUD). Results showed that monoscopic displays can be as effective as volumetric displays for human performance in AR braking tasks. The experiment also demonstrated the benefits of conformal graphics, which are tightly integrated into the real world, such as their ability to guide drivers' attention and their positive consequences on driver behavior and performance. These findings suggest that conformal graphics presented via monoscopic HUDs can enhance driver performance by leveraging the effectiveness of monocular depth cues. The proposed approaches and methods can be used and further developed by future researchers and practitioners to better understand driver performance in AR as well as inform usability evaluation of future automotive AR applications.

Targeting legume loci: A comparison of three methods for target enrichment bait design in Leguminosae phylogenomics.

PubMed

Vatanparast, Mohammad; Powell, Adrian; Doyle, Jeff J; Egan, Ashley N

2018-03-01

The development of pipelines for locus discovery has spurred the use of target enrichment for plant phylogenomics. However, few studies have compared pipelines from locus discovery and bait design, through validation, to tree inference. We compared three methods within Leguminosae (Fabaceae) and present a workflow for future efforts. Using 30 transcriptomes, we compared Hyb-Seq, MarkerMiner, and the Yang and Smith (Y&S) pipelines for locus discovery, validated 7501 baits targeting 507 loci across 25 genera via Illumina sequencing, and inferred gene and species trees via concatenation- and coalescent-based methods. Hyb-Seq discovered loci with the longest mean length. MarkerMiner discovered the most conserved loci with the least flagged as paralogous. Y&S offered the most parsimony-informative sites and putative orthologs. Target recovery averaged 93% across taxa. We optimized our targeted locus set based on a workflow designed to minimize paralog/ortholog conflation and thus present 423 loci for legume phylogenomics. Methods differed across criteria important for phylogenetic marker development. We recommend Hyb-Seq as a method that may be useful for most phylogenomic projects. Our targeted locus set is a resource for future, community-driven efforts to reconstruct the legume tree of life.

Full-Field Reconstruction of Structural Deformations and Loads from Measured Strain Data on a Wing Using the Inverse Finite Element Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Eric J.; Manalo, Russel; Tessler, Alexander

2016-01-01

A study was undertaken to investigate the measurement of wing deformation and internal loads using measured strain data. Future aerospace vehicle research depends on the ability to accurately measure the deformation and internal loads during ground testing and in flight. The approach uses the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM). The iFEM is a robust, computationally efficient method that is well suited for real-time measurement of real-time structural deformation and loads. The method has been validated in previous work, but has yet to be applied to a large-scale test article. This work is in preparation for an upcoming loads test of a half-span test wing in the Flight Loads Laboratory at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Armstrong Flight Research Center (Edwards, California). The method has been implemented into an efficient MATLAB® (The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, Massachusetts) code for testing different sensor configurations. This report discusses formulation and implementation along with the preliminary results from a representative aerospace structure. The end goal is to investigate the modeling and sensor placement approach so that the best practices can be applied to future aerospace projects.

Psycho-educational strategies to promote fluid adherence in adult hemodialysis patients: a review of intervention studies.

PubMed

Welch, Janet L; Thomas-Hawkins, Charlotte

2005-07-01

We reviewed psycho-educational intervention studies that were designed to reduce interdialytic weight gain (IDWG) in adult hemodialysis patients. Our goals were to critique research methods, describe the effectiveness of tested interventions, and make recommendations for future research. Medline, PsychInfo, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Applied Health (CINAHL) databases were searched to identify empirical work. Each study was evaluated in terms of sample, design, theoretical framework, intervention delivery, and outcome. Nine studies were reviewed. Self-monitoring appears to be a promising strategy to be considered to reduce IDWG. Theory was not usually used to guide interventions, designs generally had control groups, interventions were delivered individually, more than one intervention was delivered at a time, the duration of the intervention varied greatly, there was no long-term follow-up, IDWG was the only outcome, and IDWG was operationalized in different ways. Theoretical models and methodological rigor are needed to guide future research. Specific recommendations on design, measurement, and conceptual issues are offered to enhance the effectiveness of future research.

Participatory design of a social enterprise for rehabilitees.

PubMed

Konsti-Laakso, Suvi; Koskela, Virpi; Martikainen, Suvi-Jonna; Melkas, Helinä; Mellanen, Laura

2016-09-27

Social enterprises are often seen as a source of new and innovative solutions to persistent societal problems and a means for better inclusion of employees and customers. Because social enterprises combine business logic and social goals, they have vast potential to renew business and social life; therefore, it is vital to understand how their creation can be initiated and supported. This study provides an overview of the participatory design process for a new social enterprise as it appears in practice. The methods used in this case study guided the participants - mental health and substance abuse rehabilitees - in the co-creation and refinement of a business idea. The methods used enabled participants to acknowledge their own strengths or preferences for their potential future work, which was a unique means of establishing a new social enterprise. Social empowerment of the participants/future employees of the social enterprise formed the important, intangible capital in this case. By definition, the core of social enterprises is the customer- and employee-driven nature. This study clarifies how a social enterprise functions as a laboratory of social innovation at the local and community levels.

THE COOPERATIVE INTERNATIONAL NEUROMUSCULAR RESEARCH GROUP DUCHENNE NATURAL HISTORY STUDY—A LONGITUDINAL INVESTIGATION IN THE ERA OF GLUCOCORTICOID THERAPY: DESIGN OF PROTOCOL AND THE METHODS USED

PubMed Central

McDonald, Craig M.; Henricson, Erik K.; Abresch, R. Ted; Han, Jay J.; Escolar, Diana M.; Florence, Julaine M.; Duong, Tina; Arrieta, Adrienne; Clemens, Paula R.; Hoffman, Eric P.; Cnaan, Avital

2014-01-01

Contemporary natural history data in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is needed to assess care recommendations and aid in planning future trials. Methods The Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group (CINRG) DMD Natural History Study (DMD-NHS) enrolled 340 individuals, aged 2–28 years, with DMD in a longitudinal, observational study at 20 centers. Assessments obtained every 3 months for 1 year, at 18 months, and annually thereafter included: clinical history; anthropometrics; goniometry; manual muscle testing; quantitative muscle strength; timed function tests; pulmonary function; and patient-reported outcomes/ health-related quality-of-life instruments. Results Glucocorticoid (GC) use at baseline was 62% present, 14% past, and 24% GC-naive. In those ≥6 years of age, 16% lost ambulation over the first 12 months (mean age 10.8 years). Conclusions Detailed information on the study methodology of the CINRG DMD-NHS lays the groundwork for future analyses of prospective longitudinal natural history data. These data will assist investigators in designing clinical trials of novel therapeutics. PMID:23677550

Optimising measurement of health-related characteristics of the built environment: Comparing data collected by foot-based street audits, virtual street audits and routine secondary data sources.

PubMed

Pliakas, Triantafyllos; Hawkesworth, Sophie; Silverwood, Richard J; Nanchahal, Kiran; Grundy, Chris; Armstrong, Ben; Casas, Juan Pablo; Morris, Richard W; Wilkinson, Paul; Lock, Karen

2017-01-01

The role of the neighbourhood environment in influencing health behaviours continues to be an important topic in public health research and policy. Foot-based street audits, virtual street audits and secondary data sources are widespread data collection methods used to objectively measure the built environment in environment-health association studies. We compared these three methods using data collected in a nationally representative epidemiological study in 17 British towns to inform future development of research tools. There was good agreement between foot-based and virtual audit tools. Foot based audits were superior for fine detail features. Secondary data sources measured very different aspects of the local environment that could be used to derive a range of environmental measures if validated properly. Future built environment research should design studies a priori using multiple approaches and varied data sources in order to best capture features that operate on different health behaviours at varying spatial scales. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Short-term Exposure to Microgravity and the Associated Risk of Sudden Cardiac Arrest: Implications for Commercial Spaceflight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laing, Kevin J. C.; Russamono, Thais

2013-02-01

The likelihood of trained astronauts developing a life threatening cardiac event during spaceflight is relatively rare, whilst the incidence in untrained individuals is unknown. Space tourists who live a sedentary lifestyle have reduced cardiovascular function, but the associated danger of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) during a suborbital spaceflight (SOSF) is unclear. Risk during SOSF was examined by reviewing several microgravity studies and methods of determining poor cardiovascular condition. Accurately assessing cardiovascular function and improving baroreceptor sensitivity through exercise is suggested to reduce the incidence of SCA during future SOSFs. Future studies will benefit from past participants sharing medical history; allowing creation of risk profiles and suitable guidelines.

Investigation of Insulation Materials for Future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornell, Peggy A.; Hurwitz, Frances I.; Ellis, David L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2013-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power System (RPS) Technology Advancement Project is developing next generation high temperature insulation materials that directly benefit thermal management and improve performance of RPS for future science missions. Preliminary studies on the use of multilayer insulation (MLI) for Stirling convertors used on the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) have shown the potential benefits of MLI for space vacuum applications in reducing generator size and increasing specific power (W/kg) as compared to the baseline Microtherm HT (Microtherm, Inc.) insulation. Further studies are currently being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) on candidate MLI foils and aerogel composite spacers. This paper presents the method of testing of foils and spacers and experimental results to date.

Investigation of Insulation Materials for Future Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornell, Peggy A.; Hurwitz, Frances I.; Ellis, David L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2013-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Technology Advancement Project is developing next generation high-temperature insulation materials that directly benefit thermal management and improve performance of RPS for future science missions. Preliminary studies on the use of multilayer insulation (MLI) for Stirling convertors used on the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) have shown the potential benefits of MLI for space vacuum applications in reducing generator size and increasing specific power (W/kg) as compared to the baseline Microtherm HT (Microtherm, Inc.) insulation. Further studies are currently being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center on candidate MLI foils and aerogel composite spacers. This paper presents the method of testing of foils and spacers and experimental results to date.

[Land use and land cover charnge (LUCC) and landscape service: Evaluation, mapping and modeling].

PubMed

Song, Zhang-jian; Cao, Yu; Tan, Yong-zhong; Chen, Xiao-dong; Chen, Xian-peng

2015-05-01

Studies on ecosystem service from landscape scale aspect have received increasing attention from researchers all over the world. Compared with ecosystem scale, it should be more suitable to explore the influence of human activities on land use and land cover change (LUCC), and to interpret the mechanisms and processes of sustainable landscape dynamics on landscape scale. Based on comprehensive and systematic analysis of researches on landscape service, this paper firstly discussed basic concepts and classification of landscape service. Then, methods of evaluation, mapping and modeling of landscape service were analyzed and concluded. Finally, future trends for the research on landscape service were proposed. It was put forward that, exploring further connotation and classification system of landscape service, improving methods and quantitative indicators for evaluation, mapping and modelling of landscape service, carrying out long-term integrated researches on landscape pattern-process-service-scale relationships and enhancing the applications of theories and methods on landscape economics and landscape ecology are very important fields of the research on landscape service in future.

Constellation Commodities Studies Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dirschka, Eric

2011-01-01

Constellation program was NASA's long-term program for space exploration. The goal of the commodities studies was to solicit industry expertise in production, storage, and transportation required for future use and to improve efficiency and life cycle cost over legacy methods. Objectives were to consolidate KSC, CCAFS and other requirements; extract available industry expertise; identify commercial opportunities; and establish synergy with State of Florida partnerships. Study results are reviewed.

Aeronautical Communications Research and Development Needs for Future Air Traffic Management Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerczewski, Robert J.

2002-01-01

Continuing growth in regional and global air travel has resulted in increasing traffic congestion in the air and on the ground. In spite of occasional temporary downturns due to economic recessions and catastrophic events, average growth rates of air travel have remained high since the 1960s. The resulting congestion, which constrains expansion of the air transportation industry, inflicts schedule delays and decreases overall system efficiency, creating a pressing need to develop more efficient methods of air traffic management (ATM). New ATM techniques, procedures, air space automation methods, and decision support tools are being researched and developed for deployment in time frames stretching from the next few years to the year 2020 and beyond. As these methods become more advanced and increase in complexity, the requirements for information generation, sharing and transfer among the relevant entities in the ATM system increase dramatically. However, current aeronautical communications systems will be inadequate to meet the future information transfer demands created by these advanced ATM systems. Therefore, the NASA Glenn Research Center is undertaking research programs to develop communication, methods and key technologies that can meet these future requirements. As part of this process, studies, workshops, testing and experimentation, and research and analysis have established a number of research and technology development needs. The purpose of this paper is to outline the critical research and technology needs that have been identified in these activities, and explain how these needs have been determined.

Study on feasible technical potential of coal to electricity in china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Dexiang; Tan, Xiandong

2017-01-01

The control of bulk coal is one of the important work of air pollution control in China’s future. Existing research mainly focuses on the adaptability, economy, construction and renovation plan, and operation optimization of specific energy substitution utilization, and lacks the strategy research of long-term layout of energy substitution utilization in large area. This paper puts forward a technical potential prediction method of coal to electricity based on the thermal equivalent method, which is based on the characteristics of regional coal consumption, and combined with the trend of adaptability and economy of energy substitution utilization. Also, the paper calculates the comprehensive benefit of coal to electricity according to the varieties of energy consumption and pollutant emission level of unit energy consumption in China’s future. The research result shows that the development technical potential of coal to electricity in China is huge, about 1.8 trillion kWh, including distributed electric heating, heat pump and electric heating boiler, mainly located in North China, East China, and Northeast China. The implementation of coal to electricity has remarkable comprehensive benefits in energy conservation and emission reduction, and improvement of energy consumption safety level. Case study shows the rationality of the proposed method.

Vortex Analysis of Intra-Aneurismal Flow in Cerebral Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Sunderland, Kevin; Haferman, Christopher; Chintalapani, Gouthami

2016-01-01

This study aims to develop an alternative vortex analysis method by measuring structure ofIntracranial aneurysm (IA) flow vortexes across the cardiac cycle, to quantify temporal stability of aneurismal flow. Hemodynamics were modeled in “patient-specific” geometries, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Modified versions of known λ 2 and Q-criterion methods identified vortex regions; then regions were segmented out using the classical marching cube algorithm. Temporal stability was measured by the degree of vortex overlap (DVO) at each step of a cardiac cycle against a cycle-averaged vortex and by the change in number of cores over the cycle. No statistical differences exist in DVO or number of vortex cores between 5 terminal IAs and 5 sidewall IAs. No strong correlation exists between vortex core characteristics and geometric or hemodynamic characteristics of IAs. Statistical independence suggests this proposed method may provide novel IA information. However, threshold values used to determine the vortex core regions and resolution of velocity data influenced analysis outcomes and have to be addressed in future studies. In conclusions, preliminary results show that the proposed methodology may help give novel insight toward aneurismal flow characteristic and help in future risk assessment given more developments. PMID:27891172

Vortex Analysis of Intra-Aneurismal Flow in Cerebral Aneurysms.

PubMed

Sunderland, Kevin; Haferman, Christopher; Chintalapani, Gouthami; Jiang, Jingfeng

2016-01-01

This study aims to develop an alternative vortex analysis method by measuring structure ofIntracranial aneurysm (IA) flow vortexes across the cardiac cycle, to quantify temporal stability of aneurismal flow. Hemodynamics were modeled in "patient-specific" geometries, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Modified versions of known λ 2 and Q -criterion methods identified vortex regions; then regions were segmented out using the classical marching cube algorithm. Temporal stability was measured by the degree of vortex overlap (DVO) at each step of a cardiac cycle against a cycle-averaged vortex and by the change in number of cores over the cycle. No statistical differences exist in DVO or number of vortex cores between 5 terminal IAs and 5 sidewall IAs. No strong correlation exists between vortex core characteristics and geometric or hemodynamic characteristics of IAs. Statistical independence suggests this proposed method may provide novel IA information. However, threshold values used to determine the vortex core regions and resolution of velocity data influenced analysis outcomes and have to be addressed in future studies. In conclusions, preliminary results show that the proposed methodology may help give novel insight toward aneurismal flow characteristic and help in future risk assessment given more developments.

Near-parabolic comets observed in 2006-2010. The individualized approach to 1/a-determination and the new distribution of original and future orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Królikowska, Małgorzata; Dybczyński, Piotr A.

2013-10-01

Dynamics of a complete sample of small perihelion distance near-parabolic comets discovered in the years 2006-2010 are studied (i.e. of 22 comets of qosc < 3.1 au). First, osculating orbits are obtained after a very careful positional data inspection and processing, including where appropriate, the method of data partitioning for determination of pre- and post-perihelion orbit for tracking then its dynamical evolution. The non-gravitational acceleration in the motion is detected for 50 per cent of investigated comets, in a few cases for the first time. Different sets of non-gravitational parameters are determined from pre- and post-perihelion data for some of them. The influence of the positional data structure on the possibility of the detection of non-gravitational effects and the overall precision of orbit determination is widely discussed. Secondly, both original and future orbits were derived by means of numerical integration of swarms of virtual comets obtained using a Monte Carlo cloning method. This method allows us to follow the uncertainties of orbital elements at each step of dynamical evolution. The complete statistics of original and future orbits that includes significantly different uncertainties of 1/a-values is presented, also in the light of our results obtained earlier. Basing on 108 comets examined by us so far, we conclude that only one of them, C/2007 W1 Boattini, seems to be a serious candidate for an interstellar comet. We also found that 53 per cent of 108 near-parabolic comets escaping in the future from the Solar system, and the number of comets leaving the Solar system as so called Oort spike comets (i.e. comets suffering very small planetary perturbations) is 14 per cent. A new method for cometary orbit quality assessment is also proposed by means of modifying the original method, introduced by Marsden, Sekanina & Everhart. This new method leads to a better diversification of orbit quality classes for contemporary comets.

Measuring domestic water use: a systematic review of methodologies that measure unmetered water use in low-income settings.

PubMed

Tamason, Charlotte C; Bessias, Sophia; Villada, Adriana; Tulsiani, Suhella M; Ensink, Jeroen H J; Gurley, Emily S; Mackie Jensen, Peter Kjaer

2016-11-01

To present a systematic review of methods for measuring domestic water use in settings where water meters cannot be used. We systematically searched EMBASE, PubMed, Water Intelligence Online, Water Engineering and Development Center, IEEExplore, Scielo, and Science Direct databases for articles that reported methodologies for measuring water use at the household level where water metering infrastructure was absent or incomplete. A narrative review explored similarities and differences between the included studies and provide recommendations for future research in water use. A total of 21 studies were included in the review. Methods ranged from single-day to 14-consecutive-day visits, and water use recall ranged from 12 h to 7 days. Data were collected using questionnaires, observations or both. Many studies only collected information on water that was carried into the household, and some failed to mention whether water was used outside the home. Water use in the selected studies was found to range from two to 113 l per capita per day. No standardised methods for measuring unmetered water use were found, which brings into question the validity and comparability of studies that have measured unmetered water use. In future studies, it will be essential to define all components that make up water use and determine how they will be measured. A pre-study that involves observations and direct measurements during water collection periods (these will have to be determined through questioning) should be used to determine optimal methods for obtaining water use information in a survey. Day-to-day and seasonal variation should be included. A study that investigates water use recall is warranted to further develop standardised methods to measure water use; in the meantime, water use recall should be limited to 24 h or fewer. © 2016 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Using health technology assessment to identify gaps in evidence and inform study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Turkelson, Charles

2012-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is primarily used as a tool to ensure that clinical and policy decisions are made with the benefit of a systematic analysis of all completed research. This article describes the progress and potential for HTA reports to improve the quality and relevance of future research and to better serve the information needs of patients, clinicians, payers, and other decision makers. We conducted a review of the current published literature and working papers describing past, ongoing, and future initiatives that rely on HTA reports to identify gaps in evidence and improve the design of future research. Although still in a developmental stage, significant progress is under way to improve methods for using HTA reports for the systematic identification of research gaps, prioritization of future research, and improvement of study designs. Several well-defined frameworks have been developed to assist those who produce HTA to become more effective in these additional domains of work. A recurring element of this work is the importance of meaningfully involving stakeholders in the process of defining future research needs and designing studies to address them. Patients, clinicians, and payers are important audiences for completed research and are now recognized as serving an important role in determining what future research is needed. There are substantial opportunities to improve the quality, relevance, and efficiency of clinical research. Recent efforts are beginning to demonstrate the potential to build on the work invested in developing HTA reports to provide a roadmap toward these objectives.

Lecturers and students as stakeholders for education commissioning for learning disability nursing: focus group findings from a multiple method study.

PubMed

Gates, Bob; Statham, Mark

2013-10-01

In England, the numbers of learning disability nurses are declining; a need for urgent attention to workforce planning issues has been advocated. This paper considers views of lecturers, students and potential students as legitimate stakeholders for future education commissioning for this field of nursing. This project aimed to undertake a strategic review of learning disability nursing educational commissioning, to provide an 'evidence based' evaluation to inform future strategic commissioning of learning disability nursing for one Health Authority, UK. The project adopted a structured multiple methods approach to generate evidence from a number of data sources, this paper reports on the findings from one method [focus groups] used for two groups of stakeholders. Informants comprised 10 learning disability nursing students studying at a Higher Education Institution, 25 health and social care students studying at a Further Education College, and 6 academic staff from 5 universities; all informants were from the south of England. The method reported on in this paper is focus group methodology. Once completed, transcripts made were read in full, and subjected to content analysis. The process of content analysis led to the development of 11 theoretical categories that describe the multiplicity of views of informants, as to issues of importance for this element of the health workforce. The paper concludes by identifying key messages from these informants. It is suggested that both method and findings have national and international resonance, as stakeholder engagement is a universal issue in health care education commissioning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

2017-12-01

Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

Exploratory studies to decide whether and how to proceed with full-scale evaluations of public health interventions: a systematic review of guidance.

PubMed

Hallingberg, Britt; Turley, Ruth; Segrott, Jeremy; Wight, Daniel; Craig, Peter; Moore, Laurence; Murphy, Simon; Robling, Michael; Simpson, Sharon Anne; Moore, Graham

2018-01-01

Evaluations of complex interventions in public health are frequently undermined by problems that can be identified before the effectiveness study stage. Exploratory studies, often termed pilot and feasibility studies, are a key step in assessing the feasibility and value of progressing to an effectiveness study. Such studies can provide vital information to support more robust evaluations, thereby reducing costs and minimising potential harms of the intervention. This systematic review forms the first phase of a wider project to address the need for stand-alone guidance for public health researchers on designing and conducting exploratory studies. The review objectives were to identify and examine existing recommendations concerning when such studies should be undertaken, questions they should answer, suitable methods, criteria for deciding whether to progress to an effectiveness study and appropriate reporting. We searched for published and unpublished guidance reported between January 2000 and November 2016 via bibliographic databases, websites, citation tracking and expert recommendations. Included papers were thematically synthesized. The search retrieved 4095 unique records. Thirty papers were included, representing 25 unique sources of guidance/recommendations. Eight themes were identified: pre-requisites for conducting an exploratory study, nomenclature, guidance for intervention assessment, guidance surrounding any future evaluation study design, flexible versus fixed design, progression criteria to a future evaluation study, stakeholder involvement and reporting of exploratory studies. Exploratory studies were described as being concerned with the intervention content, the future evaluation design or both. However, the nomenclature and endorsed methods underpinning these aims were inconsistent across papers. There was little guidance on what should precede or follow an exploratory study and decision-making surrounding this. Existing recommendations are inconsistent concerning the aims, designs and conduct of exploratory studies, and guidance is lacking on the evidence needed to inform when to proceed to an effectiveness study. PROSPERO 2016, CRD42016047843.

Unmet need for contraception among sex workers in Madagascar☆,☆☆

PubMed Central

Khan, Maria R.; Turner, Abigail Norris; Pettifor, Audrey; Van Damme, Kathleen; Rabenja, Ny Lovaniaina; Ravelomanana, Noro; Swezey, Teresa; Williams, D’Nyce; Jamieson, Denise; Behets, Frieda

2018-01-01

Background The study was conducted to investigate past and future pregnancy preferences and contraceptive need among Malagasy sex workers. Study Design We analyzed data on pregnancy and contraceptive use collected during the baseline visit of a randomized, prospective formative trial which assessed diaphragm and microbicide acceptability among sex workers. To be eligible, women could not be pregnant or planning pregnancy for the next 2 months. Results Women (N=192) from four cities (Antananarivo, Antsiranana, Mahajanga and Toamasina) reported a median of 10 sex acts per week. Fifty-two percent reported a prior unwanted pregnancy, 45% at least one induced abortion and 86% that preventing future pregnancy was moderately to very important. During the last sex act, 24% used a hormonal method, 36% used a male condom, 2% used a traditional method and 38% used no method. Nearly 30% of participants reported that pregnancy prevention was moderately or very important but used no contraception at last sex; these women were categorized as having “unmet need” for contraception. In multivariable binomial regression analyses, factors associated with unmet need included low knowledge of contraceptive effectiveness [age- and site-adjusted prevalence ratio (PR): 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4–3.0] and low self-efficacy to negotiate condom use (age- and site-adjusted PR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.4–3.0). Conclusions Among these women, prior unwanted pregnancy and induced abortion were common and preventing future pregnancy was important, yet gaps in contraceptive use were substantial. Contraceptive knowledge and self-efficacy should be improved to promote contraceptive use by sex workers. PMID:19185677

A systematic and critical review of the evolving methods and applications of value of information in academia and practice.

PubMed

Steuten, Lotte; van de Wetering, Gijs; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Karin; Retèl, Valesca

2013-01-01

This article provides a systematic and critical review of the evolving methods and applications of value of information (VOI) in academia and practice and discusses where future research needs to be directed. Published VOI studies were identified by conducting a computerized search on Scopus and ISI Web of Science from 1980 until December 2011 using pre-specified search terms. Only full-text papers that outlined and discussed VOI methods for medical decision making, and studies that applied VOI and explicitly discussed the results with a view to informing healthcare decision makers, were included. The included papers were divided into methodological and applied papers, based on the aim of the study. A total of 118 papers were included of which 50 % (n = 59) are methodological. A rapidly accumulating literature base on VOI from 1999 onwards for methodological papers and from 2005 onwards for applied papers is observed. Expected value of sample information (EVSI) is the preferred method of VOI to inform decision making regarding specific future studies, but real-life applications of EVSI remain scarce. Methodological challenges to VOI are numerous and include the high computational demands, dealing with non-linear models and interdependency between parameters, estimations of effective time horizons and patient populations, and structural uncertainties. VOI analysis receives increasing attention in both the methodological and the applied literature bases, but challenges to applying VOI in real-life decision making remain. For many technical and methodological challenges to VOI analytic solutions have been proposed in the literature, including leaner methods for VOI. Further research should also focus on the needs of decision makers regarding VOI.

Mercapturic acids: recent advances in their determination by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry and their use in toxicant metabolism studies and in occupational and environmental exposure studies

PubMed Central

Mathias, Patricia I.; B’Hymer, Clayton

2016-01-01

This review describes recent selected HPLC/MS methods for the determination of urinary mercapturates that are useful as non-invasive biomarkers in characterizing human exposure to electrophilic industrial chemicals in occupational and environmental studies. High performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry is a sensitive and specific method for analysis of small molecules found in biological fluids. In this review, recent selected mercapturate quantification methods are summarized and specific cases are presented. The biological formation of mercapturates is introduced and their use indicators of metabolic processing of reactive toxicants is discussed, as well as future trends and limitations in this area of research. PMID:26900903

Isolation and determination of ivermectin in post-mortem and in vivo tissues of dung beetles using a continuous solid phase extraction method followed by LC-ESI+-MS/MS

PubMed Central

Ortiz, Antonio J.; Cortez, Vieyle; Azzouz, Abdelmonaim

2017-01-01

A new analytical method based on solvent extraction, followed by continuous solid-phase extraction (SPE) clean-up using a polymeric sorbent, was demonstrated to be applicable for the detection of ivermectin in complex biological matrices of dung beetles (hemolymph, excreta or dry tissues) using liquid chromatography combined with positive electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (LC/ESI+–MS/MS). Using a signal-to-noise ratio of 3:1, the limit of detection (LOD) in the insect matrices at trace levels was 0.01 ng g–1 and the limit of quantification (LOQ) was 0.1 ng g–1. The proposed method was successfully used to quantitatively determine the levels of ivermectin in the analysis of small samples in in vivo and post mortem samples, demonstrating the usefulness for quantitative analyses that are focused on future pharmacokinetic and bioavailability studies in insects and the establishment of a new protocol to study the impact of ivermectin on non-target arthropods such as dung beetles and other insects that are related with the “dung community”. Because satisfactory precision and accuracy values were obtained in both in vivo matrices, we suggest that the method can be consistently used for quantitative determinations that are focused on future pharmacokinetic and bioavailability studies in insects. Furthermore, this new analytical method was successfully applied to biological samples of dead dung beetles from the field suggesting that the method can be used to establish a new routine analysis of ivermectin residues in insect carcasses that is applied to complement typical mortality tests. PMID:28207908

Mesh fixation in endoscopic inguinal hernia repair: evaluation of methodology based on a systematic review of randomised clinical trials.

PubMed

Lederhuber, Hans; Stiede, Franziska; Axer, Stephan; Dahlstrand, Ursula

2017-11-01

The issue of mesh fixation in endoscopic inguinal hernia repair is frequently debated and still no conclusive data exist on differences between methods regarding long-term outcome and postoperative complications. The quantity of trials and the simultaneous lack of high-quality evidence raise the question how future trials should be planned. PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched, using the filters "randomised clinical trials" and "humans". Trials that compared one method of mesh fixation with another fixation method or with non-fixation in endoscopic inguinal hernia repair were eligible. To be included, the trial was required to have assessed at least one of the following primary outcome parameters: recurrence; surgical site infection; chronic pain; or quality-of-life. Fourteen trials assessing 2161 patients and 2562 hernia repairs were included. Only two trials were rated as low risk for bias. Eight trials evaluated recurrence or surgical site infection; none of these could show significant differences between methods of fixation. Two of 11 trials assessing chronic pain described significant differences between methods of fixation. One of two trials evaluating quality-of-life showed significant differences between fixation methods in certain functions. High-quality evidence for differences between the assessed mesh fixation techniques is still lacking. From a socioeconomic and ethical point of view, it is necessary that future trials will be properly designed. As small- and medium-sized single-centre trials have proven unable to find answers, register studies or multi-centre studies with an evident focus on methodology and study design are needed in order to answer questions about mesh fixation in inguinal hernia repair.

Using foresight methods to anticipate future threats: the case of disease management.

PubMed

Ma, Sai; Seid, Michael

2006-01-01

We describe a unique foresight framework for health care managers to use in longer-term planning. This framework uses scenario-building to envision plausible alternate futures of the U.S. health care system and links those broad futures to business-model-specific "load-bearing" assumptions. Because the framework we describe simultaneously addresses very broad and very specific issues, it can be easily applied to a broad range of health care issues by using the broad framework and business-specific assumptions for the particular case at hand. We illustrate this method using the case of disease management, pointing out that although the industry continues to grow rapidly, its future also contains great uncertainties.

Web-Based Training Methods for Behavioral Health Providers: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Jackson, Carrie B; Quetsch, Lauren B; Brabson, Laurel A; Herschell, Amy D

2018-07-01

There has been an increase in the use of web-based training methods to train behavioral health providers in evidence-based practices. This systematic review focuses solely on the efficacy of web-based training methods for training behavioral health providers. A literature search yielded 45 articles meeting inclusion criteria. Results indicated that the serial instruction training method was the most commonly studied web-based training method. While the current review has several notable limitations, findings indicate that participating in a web-based training may result in greater post-training knowledge and skill, in comparison to baseline scores. Implications and recommendations for future research on web-based training methods are discussed.

Innovative Methods in Teaching Programming for Future Informatics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Majherová, Janka; Králík, Václav

2017-01-01

In the training of future informatics teachers the students obtain experience with different methods of programming. As well, the students become familiar with programming by using the robotic system Lego Mindstorms. However, the small number of Lego systems available is a limiting factor for the teaching process. Use of virtual robotic…

Three Methods of Enhancing Global Educational Awareness for Future Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haapanen, Iris

2013-01-01

Teachers can echo the ethnic diversity of students in simulation trips to achieve an appreciation of globally indigenous education practices for future teachers. This article explores the three methods of achieving this, consisting of technology, acting out, and simulated trips, as they may be used by teachers to blend the more salient…

Charmonium-nucleon interactions from the time-dependent HAL QCD method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiura, Takuya; Ikeda, Yoichi; Ishii, Noriyoshi

2018-03-01

The charmonium-nucleon effective central interactions have been computed by the time-dependent HAL QCD method. This gives an updated result of a previous study based on the time-independent method, which is now known to be problematic because of the difficulty in achieving the ground-state saturation. We discuss that the result is consistent with the heavy quark symmetry. No bound state is observed from the analysis of the scattering phase shift; however, this shall lead to a future search of the hidden-charm pentaquarks by considering channel-coupling effects.

Tissue engineering of urinary bladder - current state of art and future perspectives.

PubMed

Adamowicz, Jan; Kowalczyk, Tomasz; Drewa, Tomasz

2013-01-01

Tissue engineering and biomaterials science currently offer the technology needed to replace the urinary tract wall. This review addresses current achievements and barriers for the regeneration of the urinary blad- der based on tissue engineering methods. Medline was search for urinary bladder tissue engineering regenerative medicine and stem cells. Numerous studies to develop a substitute for the native urinary bladder wall us- ing the tissue engineering approach are ongoing. Stem cells combined with biomaterials open new treatment methods, including even de novo urinary bladder construction. However, there are still many issues before advances in tissue engineering can be introduced for clinical application. Before tissue engineering techniques could be recognize as effective and safe for patients, more research stud- ies performed on large animal models and with long follow-up are needed to carry on in the future.

How long will the traffic flow time series keep efficacious to forecast the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, PengCheng; Lin, XuXun

2017-02-01

This paper investigate how long will the historical traffic flow time series keep efficacious to forecast the future. In this frame, we collect the traffic flow time series data with different granularity at first. Then, using the modified rescaled range analysis method, we analyze the long memory property of the traffic flow time series by computing the Hurst exponent. We calculate the long-term memory cycle and test its significance. We also compare it with the maximum Lyapunov exponent method result. Our results show that both of the freeway traffic flow time series and the ground way traffic flow time series demonstrate positively correlated trend (have long-term memory property), both of their memory cycle are about 30 h. We think this study is useful for the short-term or long-term traffic flow prediction and management.

Machine Learning Approaches for Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry.

PubMed

Dwyer, Dominic B; Falkai, Peter; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos

2018-05-07

Machine learning approaches for clinical psychology and psychiatry explicitly focus on learning statistical functions from multidimensional data sets to make generalizable predictions about individuals. The goal of this review is to provide an accessible understanding of why this approach is important for future practice given its potential to augment decisions associated with the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of people suffering from mental illness using clinical and biological data. To this end, the limitations of current statistical paradigms in mental health research are critiqued, and an introduction is provided to critical machine learning methods used in clinical studies. A selective literature review is then presented aiming to reinforce the usefulness of machine learning methods and provide evidence of their potential. In the context of promising initial results, the current limitations of machine learning approaches are addressed, and considerations for future clinical translation are outlined.

Attention bias modification for anxiety and phobias: current status and future directions.

PubMed

Kuckertz, Jennie M; Amir, Nader

2015-02-01

Attention bias modification (ABM) was introduced over a decade ago as a computerized method of manipulating attentional bias and has been followed by intense interest in applying ABM for clinical purposes. While meta-analyses support ABM as a method of modifying attentional biases and reducing anxiety symptoms, there have been notable discrepancies in findings published within the last several years. In this review, we comment on recent research that may help explain some of the inconsistencies across ABM studies. More relevant to the future of ABM research, we highlight areas in which continuing research is needed. We suggest that ABM appears to be a promising treatment for anxiety disorders, but relative to other interventions, ABM is in its infancy. Thus, research is needed in order to improve ABM as a clinical treatment and advance the psychological science of ABM.

Research opportunities in muscle atrophy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbison, G. J. (Editor); Talbot, J. M. (Editor)

1984-01-01

Muscle atrophy in a weightless environment is studied. Topics of investigation include physiological factors of muscle atrophy in space flight, biochemistry, countermeasures, modelling of atrophied muscle tissue, and various methods of measurement of muscle strength and endurance. A review of the current literature and suggestions for future research are included.

Severe weather phobia: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Westefeld, J S

1996-09-01

Eighty-one persons with an intense fear of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes were interviewed to learn more about the phenomenon of "severe weather phobia," a term introduced for the first time in this investigation. Possible causes and methods of treatment are discussed, as well as implications for future research.

Advances and future directions of research on spectral methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patera, A. T.

1986-01-01

Recent advances in spectral methods are briefly reviewed and characterized with respect to their convergence and computational complexity. Classical finite element and spectral approaches are then compared, and spectral element (or p-type finite element) approximations are introduced. The method is applied to the full Navier-Stokes equations, and examples are given of the application of the technique to several transitional flows. Future directions of research in the field are outlined.

Qualitative Evaluation Methods in Ethics Education: A Systematic Review and Analysis of Best Practices.

PubMed

Watts, Logan L; Todd, E Michelle; Mulhearn, Tyler J; Medeiros, Kelsey E; Mumford, Michael D; Connelly, Shane

2017-01-01

Although qualitative research offers some unique advantages over quantitative research, qualitative methods are rarely employed in the evaluation of ethics education programs and are often criticized for a lack of rigor. This systematic review investigated the use of qualitative methods in studies of ethics education. Following a review of the literature in which 24 studies were identified, each study was coded based on 16 best practices characteristics in qualitative research. General thematic analysis and grounded theory were found to be the dominant approaches used. Researchers are effectively executing a number of best practices, such as using direct data sources, structured data collection instruments, non-leading questioning, and expert raters. However, other best practices were rarely present in the courses reviewed, such as collecting data using multiple sources, methods, raters, and timepoints, evaluating reliability, and employing triangulation analyses to assess convergence. Recommendations are presented for improving future qualitative research studies in ethics education.

Review and Future Research Directions about Major Monitoring Method of Soil Erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, Yue; Bai, Xiaoyong; Tian, Yichao; Luo, Guangjie

2017-05-01

Soil erosion is a highly serious ecological problem that occurs worldwide. Hence,scientific methods for accurate monitoring are needed to obtain soil erosion data. At present,numerous methods on soil erosion monitoring are being used internationally. In this paper, wepresent a systematic classification of these methods based on the date of establishment andtype of approach. This classification comprises five categories: runoff plot method, erosion pinmethod, radionuclide tracer method, model estimation, and 3S technology combined method.The backgrounds of their establishment are briefly introduced, the history of their developmentis reviewed, and the conditions for their application are enumerated. Their respectiveadvantages and disadvantages are compared and analysed, and future prospects regarding theirdevelopment are discussed. We conclude that the methods of soil erosion monitoring in the past 100 years of their development constantly considered the needs of the time. According to the progress of soil erosion monitoring technology throughout its history, we predict that the future trend in this field would move toward the development of quantitative, precise, and composite methods. This report serves as a valuable reference for scientific and technological workers globally, especially those engaged in soil erosion research.

GIS-based regionalized life cycle assessment: how big is small enough? Methodology and case study of electricity generation.

PubMed

Mutel, Christopher L; Pfister, Stephan; Hellweg, Stefanie

2012-01-17

We describe a new methodology for performing regionalized life cycle assessment and systematically choosing the spatial scale of regionalized impact assessment methods. We extend standard matrix-based calculations to include matrices that describe the mapping from inventory to impact assessment spatial supports. Uncertainty in inventory spatial data is modeled using a discrete spatial distribution function, which in a case study is derived from empirical data. The minimization of global spatial autocorrelation is used to choose the optimal spatial scale of impact assessment methods. We demonstrate these techniques on electricity production in the United States, using regionalized impact assessment methods for air emissions and freshwater consumption. Case study results show important differences between site-generic and regionalized calculations, and provide specific guidance for future improvements of inventory data sets and impact assessment methods.

Potential environmental implications of nanoscale zero-valent iron particles for environmental remediation

PubMed Central

Jang, Min-Hee; Lim, Myunghee; Hwang, Yu Sik

2014-01-01

Objectives Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles are widely used in the field of various environmental contaminant remediation. Although the potential benefits of nZVI are considerable, there is a distinct need to identify any potential risks after environmental exposure. In this respect, we review recent studies on the environmental applications and implications of nZVI, highlighting research gaps and suggesting future research directions. Methods Environmental application of nZVI is briefly summarized, focusing on its unique properties. Ecotoxicity of nZVI is reviewed according to type of organism, including bacteria, terrestrial organisms, and aquatic organisms. The environmental fate and transport of nZVI are also summarized with regards to exposure scenarios. Finally, the current limitations of risk determination are thoroughly provided. Results The ecotoxicity of nZVI depends on the composition, concentration, size and surface properties of the nanoparticles and the experimental method used, including the species investigated. In addition, the environmental fate and transport of nZVI appear to be complex and depend on the exposure duration and the exposure conditions. To date, field-scale data are limited and only short-term studies using simple exposure methods have been conducted. Conclusions In this regard, the primary focus of future study should be on 1) the development of an appropriate and valid testing method of the environmental fate and ecotoxicity of reactive nanoparticles used in environmental applications and 2) assessing their potential environmental risks using in situ field scale applications. PMID:25518840

From the past to the future: Integrating work experience into the design process.

PubMed

Bittencourt, João Marcos; Duarte, Francisco; Béguin, Pascal

2017-01-01

Integrating work activity issues into design process is a broadly discussed theme in ergonomics. Participation is presented as the main means for such integration. However, a late participation can limit the development of both project solutions and future work activity. This article presents the concept of construction of experience aiming at the articulated development of future activities and project solutions. It is a non-teleological approach where the initial concepts will be transformed by the experience built up throughout the design process. The method applied was a case study of an ergonomic participation during the design of a new laboratory complex for biotechnology research. Data was obtained through analysis of records in a simulation process using a Lego scale model and interviews with project participants. The simulation process allowed for developing new ways of working and generating changes in the initial design solutions, which enable workers to adopt their own developed strategies for conducting work more safely and efficiently in the future work system. Each project decision either opens or closes a window of opportunities for developing a future activity. Construction of experience in a non-teleological design process allows for understanding the consequences of project solutions for future work.

Repositioning interprofessional education from the margins to the centre of Australian health professional education ? what is required?

PubMed

Dunston, Roger; Forman, Dawn; Thistlethwaite, Jill; Steketee, Carole; Rogers, Gary D; Moran, Monica

2018-01-16

Objective This paper examines the implementation and implications of four development and research initiatives, collectively titled the Curriculum Renewal Studies program (CRS), occurring over a 6-year period ending in 2015 and focusing on interprofessional education (IPE) within Australian pre-registration health professional education. Methods The CRS was developed as an action-focused and participatory program of studies. This research and development program used a mixed-methods approach. Structured survey, interviews and extensive documentary analyses were supplemented by semi-structured interviews, focus groups, large group consultations and consensus building methods. Narrative accounts of participants' experiences and an approach to the future development of Australian IPE were developed. Results Detailed accounts of existing Australian IPE curricula and educational activity were developed. These accounts were published and used in several settings to support curriculum and national workforce development. Reflective activities engaging with the findings facilitated the development of a national approach to the future development of Australian IPE - a national approach focused on coordinated and collective governance and development. Conclusion This paper outlines the design of an innovative approach to national IPE governance and development. It explores how ideas drawn from sociocultural theories were used to guide the choice of methods and to enrich data analysis. Finally, the paper reflects on the implications of CRS findings for health professional education, workforce development and the future of Australian IPE. What is known about the topic? IPE to enable the achievement of interprofessional and collaborative practice capabilities is widely accepted and promoted. However, many problems exist in embedding and sustaining IPE as a system-wide element of health professional education. How these implementation problems can be successfully addressed is a health service and education development priority. What does this paper add? The paper presents a summary of how Australian IPE was conceptualised, developed and delivered across 26 universities during the period of the four CRS studies. It points to strengths and limitations of existing IPE. An innovative approach to the future development of Australian IPE is presented. The importance of sociocultural factors in the development of practitioner identity and practice development is identified. What are the implications for practitioners? The findings of the CRS program present a challenging view of current Australian IPE activity and what will be required to meet industry and health workforce expectations related to the development of an Australian interprofessional- and collaborative-practice-capable workforce. Although the directions identified pose considerable challenges for the higher education and health sectors, they also provide a consensus-based approach to the future development of Australian IPE. As such they can be used as a blueprint for national development.

Estimation of future flow regime for a spatially varied Himalayan watershed using improved multi-site calibration method of SWAT model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhanang, S. M.; Hasan, M. A.; Booth, P.; Fallatah, O.

2016-12-01

The monsoon and snow driven regime in the Himalayan region has received increasing attention in the recent decade regarding the effects of climate change on hydrologic regimes. Modeling streamflow in such spatially varied catchment requires proper calibration and validation in hydrologic modeling. While calibration and validation are time consuming and computationally intensive, an effective regionalized approach with multi-site information is crucial for flow estimation, especially in daily scale. In this study, we adopted a multi-site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Karnali river catchment, which is characterized as being the most vulnerable catchment to climate change in the Himalayan region. APHRODITE's (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) daily gridded precipitation data, one of the accurate and reliable weather date over this region were utilized in this study. The model evaluation of the entire catchment divided into four sub-catchments, utilizing discharge records from 1963 to 2010. In previous studies, multi-site calibration used only a single set of calibration parameters for all sub-catchment of a large watershed. In this study, we introduced a technique that can incorporate different sets of calibration parameters for each sub-basin, which eventually ameliorate the flow of the whole watershed. Results show that the calibrated model with new method can capture almost identical pattern of flow over the region. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.73 during calibration and 0.71 during validation period. The method perfumed better than existing multi-site calibration methods. To assess the influence of continued climate change on hydrologic processes, we modified the weather inputs for the model using precipitation and temperature changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Climate simulation for RCP scenarios were conducted from 1981-2100, where 1981-2005 was considered as baseline and 2006-2100 was considered as the future projection. The result shows that probability of flooding will eventually increase in future years due to increased flow in both scenarios.

HIV Futures 8: Protocol for a Repeated Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Survey of People Living with HIV in Australia.

PubMed

Power, Jennifer; Brown, Graham; Lyons, Anthony; Thorpe, Rachel; Dowsett, Gary W; Lucke, Jayne

2017-01-01

More than 27,000 Australians currently live with HIV. Most of these people have access to quality clinical care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) and can expect good general health. However, HIV-related stigma is a problem and many people living with HIV experience poorer than average mental health. Issues of aging are also of increasing concern. This paper describes the methods and sample for the HIV Futures 8 study, a national survey of people living with HIV in Australia that aimed to identify factors that support health and well-being among this population. HIV Futures 8 forms part of a series of cross-sectional surveys (The "HIV Futures" studies) that have been repeated periodically since 1997. In the most recent survey, participants were able to opt into a prospective longitudinal study. HIV Futures 8 was open to people aged over 17 who were living with HIV. Data were collected in 2015/2016 using a self-complete survey that contained approximately 250 items related to physical and mental health, use of ART, HIV exposure and testing, financial security, social connectedness, relationships, life satisfaction, resilience, stigma, use of health and support services, and health literacy. To enable comparison of cross-sectional data over time, questionnaire items were consistent with those used in previous HIV Futures surveys. In HIV Futures 8, participants were invited to volunteer coded information that will allow longitudinal follow-up when participants complete subsequent HIV Futures surveys. The survey was advertised through the networks of HIV organizations, on social media and through HIV clinics and services. HIV Futures 8 was completed by 895 participants. This represents approximately 3.8% of the total number of people living with diagnosed HIV in Australia in 2014. Findings from HIV Futures 8 will contribute important insights into the complexity of factors that support physical and mental well-being among people living with HIV. The findings will also assist HIV services to align with broader public health goals related to increasing ART use and improving quality of life among people living with HIV.

Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems

PubMed Central

Soltis, Kathryn E.; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan; Murphy, James G.

2017-01-01

Background Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. The current study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Methods Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. Results In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Conclusions Heavy drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. PMID:28401985

Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality

Treesearch

E.L. Aronson; S.G. McNulty

2009-01-01

The temperature of the Earth is rising, and is highly likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The study of the effects of sustained heating on the ecosystems of the world is necessary so that wemight predict and respond to coming changes on both large and small spatial scales. To this end, ecosystem warming studies have...

Tendencies of Future Doctors' Ethical Competence Formation at Medical Universities in Europe and the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dudikova, Larysa

2017-01-01

The materials presented in this article are the result of a documentary-bibliographic study, which is based on the use of methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison and generalization. The results of the study have shown that the problem of professional ethics and culture of health care professionals is of significant interest. Problems of ethics,…

75 FR 67970 - Notice of Inquiry; An Analysis of the European Union Repeal of the Liner Conference Block Exemption

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-04

... the E.U.'s policy decision on U.S. trades, and will be incorporated into the Commission's research for... concerning the parameters of the study, the proposed research methods, and the possibility of future... particular. NOI Participation The Commission's research efforts, under the E.U. Study, are intended to...

A REVIEW OF RECENT STUDIES ON DIFFERENTIAL REINFORCEMENT DURING SKILL ACQUISITION IN EARLY INTERVENTION

PubMed Central

Vladescu, Jason C; Kodak, Tiffany

2010-01-01

Although the use of differential reinforcement has been recommended in previous investigations and in early intervention curriculum manuals, few studies have evaluated the best method for providing differential reinforcement to maximize independent responding. This paper reviews previous research on the effectiveness of differential reinforcement as treatment and describes important areas of future research. PMID:21119913

Microteaching Lesson Study: An Approach to Prepare Teacher Candidates to Teach Science through Inquiry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, George; Xu, Judy

2017-01-01

Inquiry-based teaching has become the most recommended approach in science education for a few decades; however, it is not a common practice yet in k-12 school classrooms. In order to prepare future teachers to teach science through inquiry, a Microteaching Lesson Study (MLS) approach was employed in our science methods courses. Instead of asking…

Funding for the Future: Strategic Research in Further Education. A Report for FEDA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bellfield, C. R.; Bullock, A. D.; Rikowski, G.; Thomas, H. R.

A research study focused on the funding method for further education (FE) in Britain. From a theoretical study of the stimuli built into the new funding methodology, four topics of interest were selected for further investigation. To clarify the arguments, these topics were cast as a series of hypotheses that could then be tested using both…

A Bright Future for Evolutionary Methods in Drug Design.

PubMed

Le, Tu C; Winkler, David A

2015-08-01

Most medicinal chemists understand that chemical space is extremely large, essentially infinite. Although high-throughput experimental methods allow exploration of drug-like space more rapidly, they are still insufficient to fully exploit the opportunities that such large chemical space offers. Evolutionary methods can synergistically blend automated synthesis and characterization methods with computational design to identify promising regions of chemical space more efficiently. We describe how evolutionary methods are implemented, and provide examples of published drug development research in which these methods have generated molecules with increased efficacy. We anticipate that evolutionary methods will play an important role in future drug discovery. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Future directions for H sub x O sub y detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosley, David R. (Editor); Hoell, James M. (Editor)

1986-01-01

The activities and recommendations of the NASA workshop on the Future Directions for H sub x O sub y detection are given. The objective of this workshop was to access future directions for the measurement of the OH radical as well as other H sub x O sub y species. The workshop discussions were focused by two broad questions: (1) What are the capabilities of potential measurement methods? and (2) Will the results from the most promising method be useful in furthering understanding of tropospheric chemistry?

Recruitment of oncology nurses for Internet research: issues and future directions.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Ok; Chee, Wonshik; Lim, Hyun Ju; Bender, Melinda; Tsai, Hsiu-Min; Yang, Soon-Ok; Lee, Hungsa

2006-11-03

To provide future directions for Internet research based on issues raised during the recruitment process of an Internet survey of oncology nurses. Throughout the research process, the research staff recorded issues as they arose and wrote memos regarding recruitment issues and possible reasons for the issues. Weekly group discussions were conducted, and written records of the discussions were kept. The written memos and records were reviewed, and the content was analyzed. The recruitment issues included flexibility required, mutual trust, changing Internet dynamics, and potential selection bias. As the issues indicated, recruiting nurses for the study only through the Internet did not work well. For future Internet research, the authors suggest using multiple Internet and real settings for recruitment, a variety of strategies, the quota sampling method, and creative motivation strategies.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

An airline study of advanced technology requirements for advanced high speed commercial transport engines. 1: Engine design study assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1973-01-01

The advanced technology requirements for an advanced high speed commercial tranport engine are presented. The results of the phase 1 study effort cover the following areas: (1) statement of an airline's major objectives for future transport engines, (2) airline's method of evaluating engine proposals, (3) description of an optimum engine for a long range subsonic commercial transport including installation and critical design features, (4) discussion of engine performance problems and experience with performance degradation, (5) trends in engine and pod prices with increasing technology and objectives for the future, (6) discussion of the research objectives for composites, reversers, advanced components, engine control systems, and devices to reduce the impact of engine stall, and (7) discussion of the airline objectives for noise and pollution reduction.

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.

2004-09-01

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a resultmore » of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.« less

Reporting Crime Victimizations to the Police and the Incidence of Future Victimizations: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ranapurwala, Shabbar I.; Berg, Mark T.; Casteel, Carri

2016-01-01

Background Law enforcement depends on cooperation from the public and crime victims to protect citizens and maintain public safety; however, many crimes are not reported to police because of fear of repercussions or because the crime is considered trivial. It is unclear how police reporting affects the incidence of future victimization. Objective To evaluate the association between reporting victimization to police and incident future victimization. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Crime Victimization Survey 2008–2012 data. Participants were 12+ years old household members who may or may not be victimized, were followed biannually for 3 years, and who completed at least one follow-up survey after their first reported victimization between 2008 and 2012. Crude and adjusted generalized linear mixed regression for survey data with Poisson link were used to compare rates of future victimization. Results Out of 18,657 eligible participants, 41% participants reported to their initial victimization to police and had a future victimization rate of 42.8/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 40.7, 44.8). The future victimization rate of those who did not report to the police (59%) was 55.0/100 PY (95% CI: 53.0, 57.0). The adjusted rate ratio comparing police reporting to not reporting was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.84) for all future victimizations, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for interpersonal violence, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) for thefts, and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) for burglaries. Conclusions Reporting victimization to police is associated with fewer future victimization, underscoring the importance of police reporting in crime prevention. This association may be attributed to police action and victim services provisions resulting from reporting. PMID:27466811

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Large scale study of multiple-molecule queries

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background In ligand-based screening, as well as in other chemoinformatics applications, one seeks to effectively search large repositories of molecules in order to retrieve molecules that are similar typically to a single molecule lead. However, in some case, multiple molecules from the same family are available to seed the query and search for other members of the same family. Multiple-molecule query methods have been less studied than single-molecule query methods. Furthermore, the previous studies have relied on proprietary data and sometimes have not used proper cross-validation methods to assess the results. In contrast, here we develop and compare multiple-molecule query methods using several large publicly available data sets and background. We also create a framework based on a strict cross-validation protocol to allow unbiased benchmarking for direct comparison in future studies across several performance metrics. Results Fourteen different multiple-molecule query methods were defined and benchmarked using: (1) 41 publicly available data sets of related molecules with similar biological activity; and (2) publicly available background data sets consisting of up to 175,000 molecules randomly extracted from the ChemDB database and other sources. Eight of the fourteen methods were parameter free, and six of them fit one or two free parameters to the data using a careful cross-validation protocol. All the methods were assessed and compared for their ability to retrieve members of the same family against the background data set by using several performance metrics including the Area Under the Accumulation Curve (AUAC), Area Under the Curve (AUC), F1-measure, and BEDROC metrics. Consistent with the previous literature, the best parameter-free methods are the MAX-SIM and MIN-RANK methods, which score a molecule to a family by the maximum similarity, or minimum ranking, obtained across the family. One new parameterized method introduced in this study and two previously defined methods, the Exponential Tanimoto Discriminant (ETD), the Tanimoto Power Discriminant (TPD), and the Binary Kernel Discriminant (BKD), outperform most other methods but are more complex, requiring one or two parameters to be fit to the data. Conclusion Fourteen methods for multiple-molecule querying of chemical databases, including novel methods, (ETD) and (TPD), are validated using publicly available data sets, standard cross-validation protocols, and established metrics. The best results are obtained with ETD, TPD, BKD, MAX-SIM, and MIN-RANK. These results can be replicated and compared with the results of future studies using data freely downloadable from http://cdb.ics.uci.edu/. PMID:20298525

A Model for settlement of health insurance organizations’ debt to health service delivery institutions

PubMed Central

Abolhallaj, Masood; Hosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza; Jafari, Mehdi; Alaei, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Background: Sukuk is a type of financial instrument backed by balance sheet and physical assets. This applied and descriptive study aimed at providing solutions to the problems faced by insurance companies in the health sector. Methods: In this study, we achieved operational models by reviewing the release nature and mechanism of any of the securities and combining them. Results: According to the model presented in this study, 2 problems could be solved: settling the past debts and avoiding future debts. This model was deigned based on asset backed securities. Conclusion: Utilizing financing instruments (such as Sukuk), creating investment funds, and finding a solution to this problem, this study was conducted in 2 aspects: (1) models that are settling old debts of the organization, and (2) models that prevent debts in the future.

Toward an Objective Enhanced-V Detection Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brunner, Jason; Feltz, Wayne; Moses, John; Rabin, Robert; Ackerman, Steven

2007-01-01

The area of coldest cloud tops above thunderstorms sometimes has a distinct V or U shape. This pattern, often referred to as an "enhanced-V' signature, has been observed to occur during and preceding severe weather in previous studies. This study describes an algorithmic approach to objectively detect enhanced-V features with observations from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and Low Earth Orbit data. The methodology consists of cross correlation statistics of pixels and thresholds of enhanced-V quantitative parameters. The effectiveness of the enhanced-V detection method will be examined using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer image data from case studies in the 2003-2006 seasons. The main goal of this study is to develop an objective enhanced-V detection algorithm for future implementation into operations with future sensors, such as GOES-R.

Associations between Otolaryngology Applicant Characteristics and Future Performance in Residency or Practice: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Bowe, Sarah N; Laury, Adrienne M; Gray, Stacey T

2017-06-01

Objective This systematic review aims to evaluate which applicant characteristics available to an otolaryngology selection committee are associated with future performance in residency or practice. Data Sources PubMed, Scopus, ERIC, Health Business, Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection, and SocINDEX. Review Methods Study eligibility was performed by 2 independent investigators in accordance with the PRISMA protocol (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses). Data obtained from each article included research questions, study design, predictors, outcomes, statistical analysis, and results/findings. Study bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Results The initial search identified 439 abstracts. Six articles fulfilled all inclusion and exclusion criteria. All studies were retrospective cohort studies (level 4). Overall, the studies yielded relatively few criteria that correlated with residency success, with generally conflicting results. Most studies were found to have a high risk of bias. Conclusion Previous resident selection research has lacked a theoretical background, thus predisposing this work to inconsistent results and high risk of bias. The included studies provide historical insight into the predictors and criteria (eg, outcomes) previously deemed pertinent by the otolaryngology field. Additional research is needed, possibly integrating aspects of personnel selection, to engage in an evidence-based approach to identify highly qualified candidates who will succeed as future otolaryngologists.

Climate change impact on soil erosion in the Mandakini River Basin, North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun; Kundu, Sananda; Mishra, Prabhash Kumar

2017-09-01

Correct estimation of soil loss at catchment level helps the land and water resources planners to identify priority areas for soil conservation measures. Soil erosion is one of the major hazards affected by the climate change, particularly the increasing intensity of rainfall resulted in increasing erosion, apart from other factors like landuse change. Changes in climate have an adverse effect with increasing rainfall. It has caused increasing concern for modeling the future rainfall and projecting future soil erosion. In the present study, future rainfall has been generated with the downscaling of GCM (Global Circulation Model) data of Mandakini river basin, a hilly catchment in the state of Uttarakhand, India, to obtain future impact on soil erosion within the basin. The USLE is an erosion prediction model designed to predict the long-term average annual soil loss from specific field slopes in specified landuse and management systems (i.e., crops, rangeland, and recreational areas) using remote sensing and GIS technologies. Future soil erosion has shown increasing trend due to increasing rainfall which has been generated from the statistical-based downscaling method.

Zymomonas mobilis: a novel platform for future biorefineries.

PubMed

He, Ming Xiong; Wu, Bo; Qin, Han; Ruan, Zhi Yong; Tan, Fu Rong; Wang, Jing Li; Shui, Zong Xia; Dai, Li Chun; Zhu, Qi Li; Pan, Ke; Tang, Xiao Yu; Wang, Wen Guo; Hu, Qi Chun

2014-01-01

Biosynthesis of liquid fuels and biomass-based building block chemicals from microorganisms have been regarded as a competitive alternative route to traditional. Zymomonas mobilis possesses a number of desirable characteristics for its special Entner-Doudoroff pathway, which makes it an ideal platform for both metabolic engineering and commercial-scale production of desirable bio-products as the same as Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae based on consideration of future biomass biorefinery. Z. mobilis has been studied extensively on both fundamental and applied level, which will provide a basis for industrial biotechnology in the future. Furthermore, metabolic engineering of Z. mobilis for enhancing bio-ethanol production from biomass resources has been significantly promoted by different methods (i.e. mutagenesis, adaptive laboratory evolution, specific gene knock-out, and metabolic engineering). In addition, the feasibility of representative metabolites, i.e. sorbitol, bionic acid, levan, succinic acid, isobutanol, and isobutanol produced by Z. mobilis and the strategies for strain improvements are also discussed or highlighted in this paper. Moreover, this review will present some guidelines for future developments in the bio-based chemical production using Z. mobilis as a novel industrial platform for future biofineries.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyaupane, Narayan; Parajuli, Ranjan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most severe and costlier natural hazard in US. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The flood plain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural area in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on a HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows extreme increase in future design flood. The future design flood could be more than the historic 500yr flood. At the same time, the extent of flooding could go beyond the historic flood of 0.2% annual probability. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer and stake holders.

A Matter of Prior Knowledge: Canadian Young Children's Conceptions about the Future in the Global Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chareka, Ottilia

2010-01-01

Young Canadian boys and girls aged nine to eleven were asked to consider their personal futures, the future of their community and the future of the world. Mixed methods were employed for data collection and analysis. Responses were compared with those given by children in eight countries and the discussion focused on the importance prior…

Expectations for Future Relationship Satisfaction: Unique Sources and Critical Implications for Commitment

PubMed Central

Baker, Levi R.; McNulty, James K.; VanderDrift, Laura E.

2017-01-01

Contemporary perspectives on relationship commitment posit that intimates decide whether or not to maintain a relationship based on their commitment to that relationship, and that they base such commitment partially on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Nevertheless, given that ending a relationship requires knowing about both the current state of the relationship and the likely future state of the relationship, we propose that people base their commitment to a relationship more on their expected future satisfaction with the relationship than on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Six studies provided evidence for these ideas. Study 1 demonstrated that expected satisfaction is shaped by not only current satisfaction but also several unique indicators of the likelihood of future satisfaction, including anticipated life events, plans to improve the relationship, and individual differences. Then, using a combination of cross-sectional, experimental, and longitudinal methods, Studies 2–6 demonstrated that (a) expected satisfaction was a stronger predictor of relationship commitment, maintenance behaviors, and/or divorce than was current satisfaction and (b) expected satisfaction mediated the association between current satisfaction and these outcomes. These findings highlight not only the need to incorporate expected satisfaction into extent perspectives on commitment, but also the importance of expectations for decision-making processes more broadly. PMID:28368196

Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The motivation behind this research is to innovatively combine new methods like wavelet, principal component analysis (PCA), and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches to analyze trade in today’s increasingly difficult and volatile financial futures markets. The main focus of this study is to facilitate forecasting by using an enhanced denoising process on market data, taken as a multivariate signal, in order to deduct the same noise from the open-high-low-close signal of a market. This research offers evidence on the predictive ability and the profitability of abnormal returns of a new hybrid forecasting model using Wavelet-PCA denoising and ANN (named WPCA-NN) on futures contracts of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures, Japan’s NIKKEI 225 futures, Singapore’s MSCI futures, South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures, and Taiwan’s TAIEX futures from 2005 to 2014. Using a host of technical analysis indicators consisting of RSI, MACD, MACD Signal, Stochastic Fast %K, Stochastic Slow %K, Stochastic %D, and Ultimate Oscillator, empirical results show that the annual mean returns of WPCA-NN are more than the threshold buy-and-hold for the validation, test, and evaluation periods; this is inconsistent with the traditional random walk hypothesis, which insists that mechanical rules cannot outperform the threshold buy-and-hold. The findings, however, are consistent with literature that advocates technical analysis. PMID:27248692

Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models.

PubMed

Chan Phooi M'ng, Jacinta; Mehralizadeh, Mohammadali

2016-01-01

The motivation behind this research is to innovatively combine new methods like wavelet, principal component analysis (PCA), and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches to analyze trade in today's increasingly difficult and volatile financial futures markets. The main focus of this study is to facilitate forecasting by using an enhanced denoising process on market data, taken as a multivariate signal, in order to deduct the same noise from the open-high-low-close signal of a market. This research offers evidence on the predictive ability and the profitability of abnormal returns of a new hybrid forecasting model using Wavelet-PCA denoising and ANN (named WPCA-NN) on futures contracts of Hong Kong's Hang Seng futures, Japan's NIKKEI 225 futures, Singapore's MSCI futures, South Korea's KOSPI 200 futures, and Taiwan's TAIEX futures from 2005 to 2014. Using a host of technical analysis indicators consisting of RSI, MACD, MACD Signal, Stochastic Fast %K, Stochastic Slow %K, Stochastic %D, and Ultimate Oscillator, empirical results show that the annual mean returns of WPCA-NN are more than the threshold buy-and-hold for the validation, test, and evaluation periods; this is inconsistent with the traditional random walk hypothesis, which insists that mechanical rules cannot outperform the threshold buy-and-hold. The findings, however, are consistent with literature that advocates technical analysis.

Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

PubMed

Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-02-01

According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Farfield Plume Measurement and Analysis on the NASA-300M

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Wensheng; Shastry, Rohit; Soulas, George C.; Kamhawi, Hani

2013-01-01

NASA is developing a 15-kW Hall thruster to support future NASA missions. This activity is funded under the Space Technology Mission Directorate Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration project. As a part of the development process, the far-field plume characteristics of the NASA-300M, a 20-kW Hall thruster, were studied. The results will be used to study how various aspects of the operation of this thruster affect the overall performance. This data will be used to guide future design work and serve as a baseline for comparison to a magnetically shielded version of the NASA-300M that will be tested in the future. For this study, a far-field Faraday probe was swept in a polar fashion to map the ion current density. An ExB probe (Wien filter), two retarding potential analyzers, and a Langmuir probe were mounted at a fixed location on the thruster axis in the far-field plume. The data reduction method followed recommendations in recent studies by Brown, Reid, and Shastry with modifications that are tailored to the plasma plume environment of high-power Hall thrusters. Results from this and prior testing show that the plume is richer in doubly-charged ions, larger in spatial extent, and capable of greater probe heating than lower power thrusters. These characteristics require special treatment in experimental setup and data analysis, which will be the main focus of this paper. In particular, covered topics will include a new, more accurate, method of integration for analysis of the ExB probe data and effect of secondary electron emission on the Faraday probe data.

Efficiencies of joint non-local update moves in Monte Carlo simulations of coarse-grained polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Kieran S.; Marenz, Martin; Janke, Wolfhard

2018-03-01

In this study four update methods are compared in their performance in a Monte Carlo simulation of polymers in continuum space. The efficiencies of the update methods and combinations thereof are compared with the aid of the autocorrelation time with a fixed (optimal) acceptance ratio. Results are obtained for polymer lengths N = 14, 28 and 42 and temperatures below, at and above the collapse transition. In terms of autocorrelation, the optimal acceptance ratio is approximately 0.4. Furthermore, an overview of the step sizes of the update methods that correspond to this optimal acceptance ratio is given. This shall serve as a guide for future studies that rely on efficient computer simulations.

Digital Holography, a metrological tool for quantitative analysis: Trends and future applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paturzo, Melania; Pagliarulo, Vito; Bianco, Vittorio; Memmolo, Pasquale; Miccio, Lisa; Merola, Francesco; Ferraro, Pietro

2018-05-01

A review on the last achievements of Digital Holography is reported in this paper, showing that this powerful method can be a key metrological tool for the quantitative analysis and non-invasive inspection of a variety of materials, devices and processes. Nowadays, its range of applications has been greatly extended, including the study of live biological matter and biomedical applications. This paper overviews the main progresses and future perspectives of digital holography, showing new optical configurations and investigating the numerical issues to be tackled for the processing and display of quantitative data.

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Background and Objective: Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. Methods: This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. Results: The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. Conclusion: In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making. PMID:29854016

Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine: An overview

PubMed Central

Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon; Prasad, Ramjee

2013-01-01

Recently, a need to develop supportive new scientific evidence for contemporary Ayurveda has emerged. One of the research objectives is an assessment of the reliability of diagnoses and treatment. Reliability is a quantitative measure of consistency. It is a crucial issue in classification (such as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction to reliability estimates and different study designs and statistical analysis is given for future studies in Ayurveda. PMID:23930037

Constructing Social Networks From Secondary Storage With Bulk Analysis Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

that classic measures of centrality are effective for identifying important nodes and close associates, and that further study of modularity classes...which ground truth was determined by interviews with the owners, and which can be used for future study in this area. Two objectives motivated this thesis...tifying important nodes and close associates, and that further study of modularity classes may be a promising method of partitioning complex components

Cognitive impairment and risk of future stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Meng; Saver, Jeffrey L.; Hong, Keun-Sik; Wu, Yi-Ling; Liu, Hsing-Cheng; Rao, Neal M.; Ovbiagele, Bruce

2014-01-01

Background: Several studies have assessed the link between cognitive impairment and risk of future stroke, but results have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies to determine the association between cognitive impairment and risk of future stroke. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and Embase (1966 to November 2013) and conducted a manual search of bibliographies of relevant retrieved articles and reviews. We included cohort studies that reported multivariable adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals or standard errors for stroke with respect to baseline cognitive impairment. Results: We identified 18 cohort studies (total 121 879 participants) and 7799 stroke events. Pooled analysis of results from all studies showed that stroke risk increased among patients with cognitive impairment at baseline (relative risk [RR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24–1.56). The results were similar when we restricted the analysis to studies that used a widely adopted definition of cognitive impairment (i.e., Mini-Mental State Examination score < 25 or nearest equivalent) (RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.46–1.84). Cognitive impairment at baseline was also associated with an increased risk of fatal stroke (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.21–2.33) and ischemic stroke (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.41–1.93). Interpretation: Baseline cognitive impairment was associated with a significantly higher risk of future stroke, especially ischemic and fatal stroke. PMID:25157064

Comparison of Standard Culture-Based Method to Culture-Independent Method for Evaluation of Hygiene Effects on the Hand Microbiome.

PubMed

Zapka, C; Leff, J; Henley, J; Tittl, J; De Nardo, E; Butler, M; Griggs, R; Fierer, N; Edmonds-Wilson, S

2017-03-28

Hands play a critical role in the transmission of microbiota on one's own body, between individuals, and on environmental surfaces. Effectively measuring the composition of the hand microbiome is important to hand hygiene science, which has implications for human health. Hand hygiene products are evaluated using standard culture-based methods, but standard test methods for culture-independent microbiome characterization are lacking. We sampled the hands of 50 participants using swab-based and glove-based methods prior to and following four hand hygiene treatments (using a nonantimicrobial hand wash, alcohol-based hand sanitizer [ABHS], a 70% ethanol solution, or tap water). We compared results among culture plate counts, 16S rRNA gene sequencing of DNA extracted directly from hands, and sequencing of DNA extracted from culture plates. Glove-based sampling yielded higher numbers of unique operational taxonomic units (OTUs) but had less diversity in bacterial community composition than swab-based sampling. We detected treatment-induced changes in diversity only by using swab-based samples ( P < 0.001); we were unable to detect changes with glove-based samples. Bacterial cell counts significantly decreased with use of the ABHS ( P < 0.05) and ethanol control ( P < 0.05). Skin hydration at baseline correlated with bacterial abundances, bacterial community composition, pH, and redness across subjects. The importance of the method choice was substantial. These findings are important to ensure improvement of hand hygiene industry methods and for future hand microbiome studies. On the basis of our results and previously published studies, we propose recommendations for best practices in hand microbiome research. IMPORTANCE The hand microbiome is a critical area of research for diverse fields, such as public health and forensics. The suitability of culture-independent methods for assessing effects of hygiene products on microbiota has not been demonstrated. This is the first controlled laboratory clinical hand study to have compared traditional hand hygiene test methods with newer culture-independent characterization methods typically used by skin microbiologists. This study resulted in recommendations for hand hygiene product testing, development of methods, and future hand skin microbiome research. It also demonstrated the importance of inclusion of skin physiological metadata in skin microbiome research, which is atypical for skin microbiome studies. Copyright © 2017 Zapka et al.