Home Learning, Technology, and Tomorrow's Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieseberg, Rhonda L.

1995-01-01

Discusses characteristics and trends of home schools and workplaces. Use of computers and computer applications (CD-ROMS, interactive software, and networking) in home schooling provides a compatible environment for future home-based businesses and telecommuting trends. Sidebars include information on home schools on line; standardized test…

Trends Reshaping Colleges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Dale F.; Peek, Roger C.

2002-01-01

Examines current educational trends in the community colleges, based on critical issues addressed at the 2002 Community College Futures Assembly (CCFA) in Orlando, Florida. Describes the CCFA as an independent policy forum, sponsored by the University of Florida, that convenes annually. Discusses the top three critical issues presented: the needs…

Current trends in feminist nursing research.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Ok

2010-01-01

Despite an increasing number of feminist studies in nursing, few reviews on current trends in feminist nursing research have been published. This article aims to explore the current trends in feminist nursing research and provide recommendations for future feminist studies in nursing. In multiple database searches, 207 articles were retrieved. These were reviewed based on 5 criteria: (1) epistemological background, (2) research questions, (3) research participants, (4) research methods, and (5) implications for changes. The review indicated that feminist nurse researchers with diverse epistemological backgrounds adopted new research methods to ask new questions; expanded their focus to include differences in ethnicity, class, sexual preference, and disability; and incorporated these diversities among women in a global context in their research. Based on these findings, recommendations for future feminist research in nursing are outlined. Copyright 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Instruments, Detectors and the Future of Astronomy with Large Ground Based Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simons, Douglas A.; Amico, Paola; Baade, Dietrich; Barden, Sam; Campbell, Randall; Finger, Gert; Gilmore, Kirk; Gredel, Roland; Hickson, Paul; Howell, Steve; Hubin, Norbert; Kaufer, Andreas; Kohley, Ralf; MacQueen, Philip; Markelov, Sergej; Merrill, Mike; Miyazaki, Satoshi; Nakaya, Hidehiko; O'Donoghue, Darragh; Oliva, Tino; Richichi, Andrea; Salmon, Derrick; Schmidt, Ricardo; Su, Hongjun; Tulloch, Simon; García Vargas, Maria Luisa; Wagner, R. Mark; Wiecha, Olivier; Ye, Binxun

2005-01-01

Results of a survey of instrumentation and detector systems, either currently deployed or planned for use at telescopes larger than 3.5 m, in ground based observatories world-wide, are presented. This survey revealed a number of instrumentation design trends at optical, near, and mid-infrared wavelengths. Some of the most prominent trends include the development of vastly larger optical detector systems (> 109 pixels) than anything built to date, and the frequent use of mosaics of near-infrared detectors - something that was quite rare only a decade ago in astronomy. Some future science applications for detectors are then explored, in an attempt to build a bridge between current detectors and what will be needed to support the research ambitions of astronomers in the future.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses the direction of future missions and it's significance to the Deep Space Network. The topics include: 1) The Deep Space Network (DSN); 2) Past Missions Driving DSN Evolution; 3) The Changing Mission Paradigm; 4) Assessing Future Mission Needs; 5) Link Support Trends; 6) Downlink Rate Trends; 7) Uplink Rate Trends; 8) End-to-End Link Difficulty Trends; 9) Summary: Future Mission Trend Drivers; and 10) Conclusion: Implications for the DSN.

High-quality lossy compression: current and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, Steven W.

1995-01-01

This paper is concerned with current and future trends in the lossy compression of real sources such as imagery, video, speech and music. We put all lossy compression schemes into common framework where each can be characterized in terms of three well-defined advantages: cell shape, region shape and memory advantages. We concentrate on image compression and discuss how new entropy constrained trellis-based compressors achieve cell- shape, region-shape and memory gain resulting in high fidelity and high compression.

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Frequency standards from government laboratories over the next 25 years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maleki, L.

1994-01-01

Based on a number of considerations including projected needs, current status, future trends, and status of key technologies, an attempt is made to project the future of government supported frequency standards development in the next 25 years.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

PubMed Central

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

PubMed

Scanlon, Bridget R; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y; Müller Schmied, Hannes; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wiese, David N; Wada, Yoshihide; Long, Di; Reedy, Robert C; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F P

2018-02-06

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Public Support for Public Schools: The Past, the Future, and the Federal Role.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piele, Philip K.

1983-01-01

Various indices of public support for the schools--school finance voting patterns, public opinion polls, and court litigation--are analyzed to document current trends. Two possible scenarios are forecast for the future, based on socioeconomic and demographic patterns. The need for future government support is stressed. (PP)

Envisioning the Future of Special Education Personnel Preparation in a Standards-Based Era

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leko, Melinda M.; Brownell, Mary T.; Sindelar, Paul T.; Kiely, Mary Theresa

2015-01-01

The authors consider the future of special education personnel preparation by responding to an overarching question: "What frameworks might teacher educators use as a basis to promote special education teacher effective performance now and in the future?" In answering this question, they summarize current trends in the context of…

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Past and future water use in Pacific Coast states.

Treesearch

Laurie L. Houston; Michio Watanabe; Jeffrey D. Kline; Ralph J. Alig

2003-01-01

We examine socioeconomic factors affecting water demand and expected trends in these factors. Based on these trends, we identify past, current, and projected withdrawal of surface water for various uses in Pacific Coast States (California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington), including public, domestic, commercial, industrial, thermoelectric, livestock, and irrigation....

The Future of Learning: 12 Views on Emerging Trends in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, William J.; Vredevoogd, Jeff

2010-01-01

In 2009, Herman Miller, Inc., a Zeeland, Michigan-based furniture manufacturer, convened a leadership roundtable intended to identify trends that would affect higher education in the year 2015. Representatives from research universities, state colleges, community colleges, private institutions, and architectural and design firms participated in…

Assessing spatiotemporal changes in forest carbon turnover times in observational data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K.; Smith, W. K.; Trugman, A. T.; van Mantgem, P.; Peng, C.; Condit, R.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Forests influence global carbon and water cycles, biophysical land-atmosphere feedbacks, and atmospheric composition. The capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 in a changing climate depends not only on the response of carbon uptake (i.e., gross primary productivity) but also on the simultaneous change in carbon residence time. However, changes in carbon residence with climate change are uncertain, impacting the accuracy of predictions of future terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we use long-term forest inventory data representative of tropical, temperate, and boreal forests; satellite-based estimates of net primary productivity and vegetation carbon stock; and six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate spatiotemporal trends in carbon residence time and its relation to climate. Forest inventory and satellite-based estimates of carbon residence time show a pervasive decreasing trend across global forests. In contrast, the CMIP5 models diverge in predicting historical and future trends in carbon residence time. Divergence across CMIP5 models indicate carbon turnover times are not well constrained by observations, which likely contributes to large variability in future carbon cycle projections.

The Potential Environmental Impact of Waste from Cellulosic Ethanol Production

EPA Science Inventory

The increasing production of ethanol has been established as an important contributor to future energy independence. A trend in decreasing profitability and resource conflicts has given grain based ethanol production a limited and difficult future. Growing emphasis is being place...

Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Oria, Marco; Ferraresi, Massimo; Tanda, Maria Giovanna

2017-12-01

This paper analyzes the historical precipitation and temperature trends and the future climate projections with reference to the northern part of Tuscany (Italy). The trends are identified and quantified at monthly and annual scale at gauging stations with data collected for long periods (60-90 years). An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), was then used to assess local scale future precipitation and temperature projections and to represent the uncertainty in the results. The historical data highlight a general decrease of the annual rainfall at a mean rate of 22 mm per decade but, in many cases, the tendencies are not statistically significant. Conversely, the annual mean temperature exhibits an upward trend, statistically significant in the majority of cases, with a warming rate of about 0.1 °C per decade. With reference to the model projections and the annual precipitation, the results are not concordant; the deviations between models in the same period are higher than the future changes at medium- (2031-2040) and long-term (2051-2060) and highlight that the model uncertainty and variability is high. According to the climate model projections, the warming of the study area is unequivocal; a mean positive increment of 0.8 °C at medium-term and 1.1 °C at long-term is expected with respect to the reference period (2003-2012) and the scenario RCP4.5; the increments grow to 0.9 °C and 1.9 °C for the RCP8.5. Finally, in order to check the observed climate change signals, the climate model projections were compared with the trends based on the historical data. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with reference to the precipitation; a systematic underestimation of the trend values with respect to the models, at medium- and long-term, is observed for the temperature data.

Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, Gregory

1984-01-01

Based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and net immigration trends, statistical tables depict the future U.S. population by age, sex, and race. Figures are based on the July 1, 1982, population estimates and race definitions and are projected using the cohort-component method with alternative assumptions for future fertility, mortality,…

Pragmatic treatment planning for the older dentate patient.

PubMed

Burke, F M; Hayes, M

2016-12-01

Population ageing is a progressive trend in most developed nations, including Ireland. Alongside this trend, there has been a concomitant decrease in tooth loss among Irish adults (Whelton, 2007). As a result, there will be more dentate older patients presenting for care. Future treatment strategies will be based on patient demand, clinician skill set, pragmatism, future planning and cost-effectiveness. This article presents the use of minimally invasive concepts in the management of older patients. As well as describing these principles, two cases treated by the staff and students of Cork University Dental School and Hospital are presented as examples. Older patients can be provided with good aesthetic, functional outcomes using the principles of minimally invasive dentistry. Futhermore, these treatment options are less likely to fail catastrophically in future years, resulting in tooth loss and edentulousness in advanced years when adaptation may be challenging. Treatment choices for older adults should be as evidence based an pragmatic as possible, with a view to impact of future failure.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

Impact of digital systems technology on man-vehicle systems research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretoi, R. N.

1983-01-01

The present study, based on a NASA technology assessment, examines the effect of new technologies on trends in crew-systems design and their implications from the vantage point of man-vehicle systems research. Those technologies that are most relevant to future trends in crew-systems design are considered along with problems associated with the introduction of rapidly changing technologies and systems concepts from a human-factors point of view. The technologies discussed include information processing, displays and controls, flight and propulsion control, flight and systems management, air traffic control, training and simulation, and flight and resource management. The historical evolution of cockpit systems design is used to illustrate past and possible future trends in man-vehicle systems research.

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center

PubMed Central

Dou, Chao

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always “dirty,” which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the “dirty” data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 PMID:28090205

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center.

PubMed

Miao, Beibei; Dou, Chao; Jin, Xuebo

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always "dirty," which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the "dirty" data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 .

Imagining wilderness

Treesearch

Daniel Dustin; Jeff Rose; Adrienne Cachelin; Wynn Shooter; Scott Schumann

2012-01-01

The future of wilderness is open for discussion and debate. In this paper we invite readers to consider four wilderness scenarios, any one of which, or combination of which, seems possible based on current demographic, social, and cultural trends. The purpose of the paper is not so much to try to predict the future as it is to prod readers into pondering the future—a...

Presidential Address National Academy of Neuropsychology Conference Boston 2017.

PubMed

Meyers, John E

2018-05-05

This presidential address attempts to predict the future directions of neuropsychology. Predicting the future is always a difficult thing. By examining population trends such as aging and demographics, a clearer picture becomes visible. The population is getting older and more ethnically diverse. Also, examination of the spending trends in health care indicates that neuropsychology needs to be able to adapt to working with larger population-based patient care as well as individual patient care. Shifts in the demographics of neuropsychology, in that the profession previously was 70% male dominate and now is >70% female dominant are also discussed. Trends in NAN's speaker and leader demographics are examined as well as the need to stay current in the trends and latest neuropsychological research lest we become dinosaurs in the next 5-10 years. Recommendations for new neuropsychologists and post-doctoral fellows are also presented.

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

State of the Art and Future Trends in Special Education 1980: An Analysis Using the ERIC Data Base.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambel, Marion, Ed.

The report analyzes trends in research and programs in special education. Twelve reviewers from each of the divisions of The Council for Exceptional Children (CEC) reviewed abstracts of ERIC (Educational Resources Information Center) documents (project reports, research reports, and conference presentations). The ERIC documents resulted from a…

Vision 2010: The Future of Higher Education Business and Learning Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, Patrick; Gleason, Bernard

2006-01-01

The global software industry is in the midst of a major evolutionary shift--one based on open computing--and this trend, like many transformative trends in technology, is being led by the IT staffs and academic computing faculty of the higher education industry. The elements of this open computing approach are open source, open standards, open…

Modelling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States: National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities

PubMed Central

Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Penalvo, Jose L.; Rehm, Colin D.; Afshin, Ashkan; Danaei, Goodarz; Kypridemos, Chris; Gaziano, Tom; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2016-01-01

Background Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts have often not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in CVD mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in CVD mortality and disparities. Methods and Results To forecast US CVD mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period and cohort (APC) effects from 1979–2012, stratified by age, gender and race; which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, SEER single year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 National Population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first based on constant APC effects at 2012 values, as most commonly done (conventional); and then using more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in APC effects (trend-based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by approximately 18% (67,000 additional coronary deaths/year) and 50% (64,000 additional stroke deaths/year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would fall by 2030 by approximately 27% (79,000 fewer deaths/year); and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths/year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths, but not coronary deaths. Conclusions After accounting for prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, while stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke, but not coronary, deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These APC approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates. PMID:26846769

The Librarian and the Library User: What the Future Holds.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Electronic Library, 1997

1997-01-01

Discusses the role of information professionals in the future, based on a session at the Online Information 96 conference in London (England). Topics include equipment and software needs; technological advances; a trend toward distance education; how library users are adapting to change; interlibrary loans; online public access catalogs; and…

Environmental Quality of the Pensacola Bay System: Retrospective Review for Future Resource Management and Rehabilitation

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this report is to summarize the scattered environmental information for the PBS which is essential for understanding its current environmental condition and trend and needed for future cost-effective and science-based resource management. The management and regul...

Time Series Analysis of Technology Trends based on the Internet Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Shin-Ichi; Shirai, Yasuyuki; Hiyane, Kazuo; Kumeno, Fumihiro; Inujima, Hiroshi; Yamauchi, Noriyoshi

Information technology is increasingly important in recent years for the development of our society. IT has brought many changes to everything in our society with incredible speed. Hence, when we investigate R & D themes or plan business strategies in IT, we must understand overall situation around the target technology area besides technology itself. Especially it is crucial to understand overall situation as time series to know what will happen in the near future in the target area. For this purpose, we developed a method to generate Multiple-phased trend maps automatically based on the Internet content. Furthermore, we introduced quantitative indicators to analyze near future possible changes. According to the evaluation of this method we got successful and interesting results.

Paradigm Shift or Annoying Distraction

PubMed Central

Spallek, H.; O’Donnell, J.; Clayton, M.; Anderson, P.; Krueger, A.

2010-01-01

Web 2.0 technologies, known as social media, social technologies or Web 2.0, have emerged into the mainstream. As they grow, these new technologies have the opportunity to influence the methods and procedures of many fields. This paper focuses on the clinical implications of the growing Web 2.0 technologies. Five developing trends are explored: information channels, augmented reality, location-based mobile social computing, virtual worlds and serious gaming, and collaborative research networks. Each trend is discussed based on their utilization and pattern of use by healthcare providers or healthcare organizations. In addition to explorative research for each trend, a vignette is presented which provides a future example of adoption. Lastly each trend lists several research challenge questions for applied clinical informatics. PMID:23616830

An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

New Labor Force Projections to 1990. Special Labor Force Report 197.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Howard N., Jr.; Flaim, Paul O.

Prepared as part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' periodic reassessment of its projections of the future growth trends of the various sectors of the American economy, new labor force projections to 1990 are presented based on trends in labor force participation as observed through 1975 and on the most recent population projections of the U.S.…

Investigating the Linkage between Intrinsic Motivation and Project Team Satisfaction in Undergraduate Agricultural Leadership Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamm, Kevan W.; Carter, Hannah S.; Melendez, Marcus W.

2014-01-01

Organizations have increased the amount of work that is completed by project teams over the past several decades. This trend is projected to continue into the foreseeable future. In response to this trend, the academic community has increased the number of project team based learning experiences for students in classes. The challenge has been that…

Planting for the Future: Forestry for Human Needs. Worldwatch Paper 26.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eckholm, Erik

Forestry planning is essential if the global trend toward deforestation is to be reversed. World forest trends, although often based on inaccurate or misleading information put out by national governments, indicate that the area of land covered with closed forests has decreased from about 25% in 1950 to about 20% in the 1970s. Major causes of…

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

P.E.O.P.L.E. 32: B.C. College Region Population Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, 2007

2007-01-01

Each year BC Stats, Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services, projects the population of British Columbia (BC) and its regions. These projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels. Assumptions are derived from demographic trends modified to include potential impacts of future economic factors. The…

Occupational Outlets for Middle Level Training. What Is the Future of Middle Level Training?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Paul; Cesnich, Janine

This project intended to determine whether a middle-level employment base existed in manufacturing and service industries in South Australia and to examine current trends and future directions of middle-level (paraprofessional) vocational training. The study used the following methods: literature review; labor market analysis; surveys of…

Here Comes the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeder, Robert; And Others

This teacher's guide introduces students to problems and potentials of the future in an effort to prepare them for life in the 21st century. Based on an interdisciplinary approach, the lesson plans within four major units represent five futuristic trends and assumptions: (1) the shift of emphasis from subject matter to conceptual frameworks; (2)…

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Drummond, Mark A.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Future trends in picture archiving and communication system (PACS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hajeri, Mona; Clarke, Malcolm

2015-03-01

Objective: This research investigates the needs and opinions of radiologists on the use of enhanced information technologies and approaches to improve the functionality of Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS). Method: Six interviews were conducted in the main governmental hospital in Kuwait (AL-Sabah Hospital) with radiologists, including two senior radiologists, two junior radiologists, and two trainee radiologists undertaking the Irish radiology board. Results: The radiologists identified a number of limitations that exist in current PACS and requirements to enhance usability and functionality. However, it was the case that some of the radiologists had little knowledge about the advanced trends in PACS. Four themes emerged from the thematic analysis of the data: (1) limitations of traditional PACS; (2) Features and requirements that can increase PACS functionality; (3) web based solutions of PACS; (4) PACS in mobile phones. Conclusion: It is widely recognized that PACS has limitations. This research has identified themes that, when incorporated, will enhance the functionality of PACS and provide better quality clinical practice. This research has determined the important future trends of PACS. Primarily web based solutions and use in mobile phones. The findings from this research can be used as recommendations to vendors, for product development and medical institutes to consider when undertaking implementation of PACS and training future radiologists.

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

2013-01-01

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

Effective Contracting: Trends and Lessons-Learned

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-25

present a briefing on their current state of medical contracting; covering trends and lessons- learned from over the past 24 months. Their perspective...basing • Future opportunities in the MHS with a focus on strategic sourcing. • SECDEF guidance 2011 MHS Conference HCAA Mission To provide sound...including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing

An assessment of the status and trends in satellite communications 1986-2000: An information document prepared for the Communications Subcommittee of the Space Applications Advisory Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poley, W. A.; Stevens, G. H.; Stevenson, S. M.; Lekan, J.; Arth, C. H.; Hollansworth, J. E.; Miller, E. F.

1986-01-01

This is a response to a Space Applications Advisory Committee (SAAC) request for information about the status and trends in satellite communications, to be used to support efforts to conceive and recommend long range goals for NASA communications activities. Included in this document are assessments of: (1) the outlook for satellite communications, including current applications, potential future applications, and impact of the changing environment such as optical fiber networks, the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) standard, and the rapidly growing market for Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT); (2) the restrictions imposed by our limited spectrum resource; and (3) technology needs indicated by future trends. Potential future systems discussed include: large powerful satellites for providing personal communications; VSAT compatible satellites with onboard switching and having voice capability; large satellites which offer a pervasive T1 network service (primarily for video-phone); and large geostationary communications facilities which support common use by several carriers. Also, discussion is included of NASA particular needs and possible future systems. Based on the mentioned system concepts, specific technology recommendations are provided for the time frames of now - 1993, 1994 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010.

Energy profiles of four American states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jiamei

2018-06-01

Energy production and usage are the major portion of any economy. With the constant consumption of the polluting energy and the deteriorating environment, people are paying more and more attention to clean, renewable energy. Based on autoregressive model and TOPSIS, though analyzing the past data, this paper establishes the energy profiles of four American states from 1960 to 2009, predict the energy profiles for 2025 and 2050 and obtain the ideal criteria for future clean, renewable energy usage at last. This study finds that by analyzing and predicting the energy profile, human beings can better understand and grasp the trend of energy development and take appropriate measures to deal with future energy trends.

Sixteen Trends...Their Profound Impact on Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marx, Gary

2011-01-01

Seismic Shifts. Future Forces. Call them whatever you'd like. The Sixteen Trends revealed in this benchmark book will have a profound impact on our future. Noted futurist, educator, communicator, executive and leadership counsel, author, and international speaker Gary Marx makes the case for those trends and speculates on their implications for…

Collection Directions: Some Reflections on the Future of Library Collections and Collecting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dempsey, Lorcan; Malpas, Constance; Lavoie, Brian

2014-01-01

This article takes a broad view of the evolution of collecting behaviors in a network environment and suggests some future directions based on various simple models. The authors look at the changing dynamics of print collections, at the greater engagement with research and learning behaviors, and at trends in scholarly communication. The goal is…

Faces of the Future: School Counselors as Cultural Mediators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Portman, Tarrell Awe Agahe

2009-01-01

Twenty years ago, futurists examined the changing role of the school counselor and forecasted what the 21st-century school counselor would need to know. This article forecasts the future of school counseling in the next 20 years by focusing on expected diversity of K-12 students. Speculation on student enrollment based on projected trends and…

Cadaveric Anatomy in the Future of Medical Education: What Is the Surgeon's View?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheikh, Ahmad Hassan; Barry, Denis S.; Gutierrez, Humberto; Cryan, John F.; O'Keeffe, Gerard W.

2016-01-01

Reduced contact hours and access to cadaveric/prosection-based teaching in medical education has led to many doctors reporting inadequate anatomical knowledge of junior doctors. This trend poses significant risk, but perhaps most of all in surgery. Here the opinions of surgeons regarding current and future teaching practices in anatomy were…

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

PubMed

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-07-15

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Performance Support in Internet Time: The State of the Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gery, Gloria; Malcolm, Stan; Cichelli, Janet; Christensen, Hal; Raybould, Barry; Rosenberg, Marc J.

2000-01-01

Relates a discussion held via teleconference that addressed trends relating to performance support. Topics include computer-based training versus performance support; knowledge management; Internet and Web-based applications; dynamics and human activities; enterprise application integration; intrinsic performance support; and future possibilities.…

Future Carrier-Based Tactical Aircraft Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-01

This report describes an aircraft database which was developed to identify technology trends for several classes of tactical naval aircraft, including subsonic attack, supersonic fighter, and supersonic multimission aircraft classes. This study used ...

High School and Youth Trends

MedlinePlus

... High School and Youth Trends Monitoring the Future Survey: High School and Youth Trends Email Facebook Twitter ... December 2017 This year's Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey of drug use and attitudes among 8th, 10th, ...

Learning Curve for Seawater Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plants: Capital Cost Trend of the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldera, Upeksha; Breyer, Christian

2017-12-01

Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is expected to play a pivotal role in helping to secure future global water supply. While the global reliance on SWRO plants for water security increases, there is no consensus on how the capital costs of SWRO plants will vary in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyze the past trends of the SWRO capital expenditures (capex) as the historic global cumulative online SWRO capacity increases, based on the learning curve concept. The SWRO capex learning curve is found based on 4,237 plants that came online from 1977 to 2015. A learning rate of 15% is determined, implying that the SWRO capex reduced by 15% when the cumulative capacity was doubled. Based on SWRO capacity annual growth rates of 10% and 20%, by 2030, the global average capex of SWRO plants is found to fall to 1,580 USD/(m3/d) and 1,340 USD/(m3/d), respectively. A learning curve for SWRO capital costs has not been presented previously. This research highlights the potential for decrease in SWRO capex with the increase in installation of SWRO plants and the value of the learning curve approach to estimate future SWRO capex.

2010 Cost of Wind Energy Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.; Hand, M.; Maples, B.

2012-04-01

This document provides a detailed description of NREL's levelized cost of wind energy equation, assumptions and results in 2010, including historical cost trends and future projections for land-based and offshore utility-scale wind.

2010 Cost of Wind Energy Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.; Hand, M.; Maples, B.

2012-04-01

This document provides a detailed description of NREL's levelized cost of wind energy equation, assumptions, and results in 2010, including historical cost trends and future projections for land-based and offshore utility-scale wind.

Investigating gender violence in Jamaica.

PubMed

Spiring, Fred

2014-01-01

As Jamaica moves through implementation of their National Policy on Gender Equality and develops harassment legislation, this article attempts to investigate current levels and trends of gender-based violence in Jamaica. All analyses make use of existing data and data formats in developing performance indicators that illustrate the current state of gender violence in Jamaica. The analyses provide a baseline for the future assessment and comparison with internationally accepted gender-based violence indicators. All source data has been included to facilitate comparisons and discussions regarding related levels and trends of violence as well as addressing performance indicator effectiveness.

[Cell therapy for Parkinson's disease: IV. Risks and future trends].

PubMed

Anisimov, S V

2009-01-01

Motor dysfunctions in Parkinson's disease are believed to be primarily due to the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons located in the substantia nigra pars compacta. Numerous cell replacement therapy approaches have been developed and tested, including these based on donor cell transplantation (embryonic and adult tissue-derived), adult mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs)-, neural stem cells (hNSCs)- and finally human embryonic stem cells (hESCs)-based. Despite the progress achieved, numerous difficulties prevent wider practical application of stem cell-based therapy approaches for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Among the latter, ethical, safety and technical issues stand out. Current series of reviews (Cell therapy for Parkinson's disease: I. Embryonic and adult donor tissue-based applications; II. Adult stem cell-based applications; III. Neonatal, fetal and embryonic stem cell-based applications; IV. Risks and future trends) aims providing a balanced and updated view on various issues associated with cell types (including stem cells) in regards to their potential in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Essential features of the individual cell subtypes, principles of available cell handling protocols, transplantation, and safety issues are discussed extensively.

Behavioral medicine: a voyage to the future.

PubMed

Keefe, Francis J

2011-04-01

This paper discusses trends and future directions in behavioral medicine. It is divided into three sections. The first briefly reviews key developments in the history of behavioral medicine. The second section highlights trends and future directions in pain research and practice as a way of illustrating future directions for behavioral medicine. Consistent with the biopsychosocial model of pain, this section focuses on trends and future directions in three key areas: biological, psychological, and social. The third section describes recent Society of Behavioral Medicine initiatives designed to address some of the key challenges facing our field as we prepare for the future.

Laser Optical Disk: The Coming Revolution in On-Line Storage.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fujitani, Larry

1984-01-01

Review of similarities and differences between magnetic-based and optical disk drives includes a discussion of the electronics necessary for their operation; describes benefits, possible applications, and future trends in development of laser-based drives; and lists manufacturers of laser optical disk drives. (MBR)

Using Future Trends to Inform Planning/Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nichols, John V.

1995-01-01

Explores the reasons for incorporating trend analysis of librarianship into library planning and marketing. Key financial and technological issues are reviewed, and the techniques of environmental scanning and alternative scenario-building to incorporate future trends are discussed. (AEF)

Taking Charge of Your Career Path: A Future Trend of the Workforce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiMattina, Cara; Ferris, Lisa-Anne

2013-01-01

Workplace trends portray relevant information regarding the present and future of the workforce and its members. These trends signify changes within the workplace regarding performance, retention, satisfaction and many other areas that affect the individual employee, as well as the organization and industry as a whole. Trends can be seen in…

Drought analysis and water resource availability using standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui-Mean, Foo; Yusop, Zulkifli; Yusof, Fadhilah

2018-03-01

Trend analysis for potential evapotranspiration (PET) and climatic water balance (CWB) is critical in identifying the wetness or dryness episodes with respect to the water surplus or deficit. The PET is computed based on the monthly average temperature for the entire Peninsular Malaysia using Thornthwaite parameterization. The trends and slope's magnitude for the PET and CWB were then investigated using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Thiel-Sen estimator. The 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is applied to determine the drought episodes and the average recurrence interval are calculated based on the SPEI. The results indicate that most of the stations show an upward trend in annual and monthly PET while majority of the regions show an upward trend in annual CWB except for the Pahang state. The increasing trends detected in the CWB describe water is in excess especially during the northeast monsoons while the decreasing trends imply water insufficiency. The excess water is observed mostly in January especially in the west coast, east coast and southwest regions that suggest more water is available for crop requirement. The average recurrence interval for drought episodes is almost the same for the smaller severity with various time scale of SPEI and high probability of drought occurrence is observed for some regions. The findings are useful for policymakers and practitioners to improve water resources planning and management, in particular to minimise drought effects in the future. Future research shall address the influence of topography on drought behaviour using more meteorological stations and to include east Malaysia in the analysis.

Learning for the Future: The Emergence of Lifelong Learning and the Internationalisation of Education as the Fourth Way?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Wing On

2012-01-01

This article explores the discourse of international educational reform that aims at meeting the various challenges of globalisation and a knowledge-based economy and preparing students for a better future in the twenty-first century. Specifically, it reviews the dominant themes, trends and goals of modern education. It does so by exploring the…

Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040.

PubMed

Gaber, Charles; Meza, Rafael; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Cote, Michele L

2016-10-17

The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.

An investigation of trends in precious metal and copper content of RAM modules in WEEE: Implications for long term recycling potential.

PubMed

Charles, Rhys Gareth; Douglas, Peter; Hallin, Ingrid Liv; Matthews, Ian; Liversage, Gareth

2017-02-01

Precious metal (PM) and copper content of dynamic-RAM modules placed on the market during 1991-2008 has been analysed by AAS following comminution and acid digestion. Linear regression analysis of compositional data ordered according to sample chronology was used to identify historic temporal trends in module composition resulting from changes in manufacturing practices, and to project future trends for use in more accurate assessment of future recycling potential. DRAM was found to be 'high grade' waste with: stable levels of gold and silver over time; 80% reduction in palladium content during 1991-2008; and 0.23g/module/year increase in copper content with a 75% projected increase from 2008 by 2020. The accuracy of future recycling potential projections for WEEE using current methods based on static compositional data from current devices is questionable due to likely changes in future device composition. The impact on recycling potential projections of waste laptops, smart phones, cell phones and tablets arising in Europe in 2020 resulting from a 75% increase in copper content is considered against existing projections using static compositional data. The results highlight that failing to consider temporal variations in PM content may result in significant discrepancies between projections and future recycling potential. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

2017-10-01

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

Bioprinting toward organ fabrication: challenges and future trends.

PubMed

Ozbolat, Ibrahim T; Yu, Yin

2013-03-01

Tissue engineering has been a promising field of research, offering hope for bridging the gap between organ shortage and transplantation needs. However, building three-dimensional (3-D) vascularized organs remains the main technological barrier to be overcome. Organ printing, which is defined as computer-aided additive biofabrication of 3-D cellular tissue constructs, has shed light on advancing this field into a new era. Organ printing takes advantage of rapid prototyping (RP) technology to print cells, biomaterials, and cell-laden biomaterials individually or in tandem, layer by layer, directly creating 3-D tissue-like structures. Here, we overview RP-based bioprinting approaches and discuss the current challenges and trends toward fabricating living organs for transplant in the near future.

UNDERSTANDING THE PAST, MANAGING THE FUTURE - Remotely sensed analysis of the urban sprawl of Istanbul for supporting decision making for a sustainable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altan, O.; Kemper, G.

2012-07-01

The GIS based analysis of the land use change of Istanbul delivers a huge and comprehensive database that can be used for further analysis. Trend analysis and scenarios enable a view to the future that highlights the needs for a proper planning. Also the understanding via comparison to other cities assists in order not to copy errors from other cities. GIS in combination with ancillary data open a wide field for managing the future of Istanbul.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Physician's emerging roles relating to trends in health information technology.

PubMed

David Johnson, J

2014-08-12

Objective: To determine the new roles that physicians will adopt in the near future to adjust to accelerating trends from managed care to outcome-based practice to health care reform to health information technology to the evolving role of health consumers. Methods: Trends and related developments concerning the changing roles of physicians based on prior literature reviews. Results: Six possible roles, traditional, gatekeeper, coach, navigator, informatician and one voice among many, are discussed in terms of physician's centrality, patient autonomy, decision-making and uncertainty, information seeking, satisfaction and outcomes, particularly those related to compliance. Conclusion: A greater understanding of these emerging roles could lead to more efficacious outcomes in our ever changing, increasingly complex medical system. Patients often have little understanding of emerging trends that lead to the development of specialized roles such as hospitalist and navigators and, relatedly, the evolving roles of physicians.

Evidence based library and information practice in Australia: defining skills and knowledge.

PubMed

Lewis, Suzanne

2011-06-01

This guest feature from Suzanne Lewis, a long-time advocate of evidence based library and information practice (EBLIP) in Australia, discusses a current trend within the movement that focuses on the skills, knowledge and competencies of health librarians. In particular, the feature describes three specific Australia-based research projects, on expert searching, indigenous health and future skills requirements for the health library workforce respectively, that exemplify this trend. These projects illustrate how the evidence base can be strengthened around the skills and knowledge required to deliver services that continue to meet the changing needs of health library and information users. © 2011 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2011 Health Libraries Group.

Nursing education trends: future implications and predictions.

PubMed

Valiga, Theresa M Terry

2012-12-01

This article examines current trends in nursing education and proposes numerous transformations needed to ensure that programs are relevant, fully engage learners, reflect evidence-based teaching practices, and are innovative. Such program characteristics are essential if we are to graduate nurses who can practice effectively in today's complex, ambiguous, ever-changing health care environments and who are prepared to practice in and, indeed, shape tomorrow's unknown practice environments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New approach to generating insights for aging research based on literature mining and knowledge integration

PubMed Central

Kwon, Yeondae; Natori, Yukikazu

2017-01-01

The proportion of the elderly population in most countries worldwide is increasing dramatically. Therefore, social interest in the fields of health, longevity, and anti-aging has been increasing as well. However, the basic research results obtained from a reductionist approach in biology and a bioinformatic approach in genome science have limited usefulness for generating insights on future health, longevity, and anti-aging-related research on a case by case basis. We propose a new approach that uses our literature mining technique and bioinformatics, which lead to a better perspective on research trends by providing an expanded knowledge base to work from. We demonstrate that our approach provides useful information that deepens insights on future trends which differs from data obtained conventionally, and this methodology is already paving the way for a new field in aging-related research based on literature mining. One compelling example of this is how our new approach can be a useful tool in drug repositioning. PMID:28817730

ALARA database value in future outage work planning and dose management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, D.W.; Green, W.H.

1995-03-01

ALARA database encompassing job-specific duration and man-rem plant specific information over three refueling outages represents an invaluable tool for the outage work planner and ALARA engineer. This paper describes dose-management trends emerging based on analysis of three refueling outages at Clinton Power Station. Conclusions reached based on hard data available from a relational database dose-tracking system is a valuable tool for planning of future outage work. The system`s ability to identify key problem areas during a refueling outage is improving as more outage comparative data becomes available. Trends over a three outage period are identified in this paper in themore » categories of number and type of radiation work permits implemented, duration of jobs, projected vs. actual dose rates in work areas, and accuracy of outage person-rem projection. The value of the database in projecting 1 and 5 year station person-rem estimates is discussed.« less

Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

PubMed

Ng, Kok-Hoe

2016-06-01

The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

Structures Technology for Future Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Venneri, Samuel L.; Paul, Donald B.; Hopkins, Mark A.

2000-01-01

An overview of structures technology for future aerospace systems is given. Discussion focuses on developments in component technologies that will improve the vehicle performance, advance the technology exploitation process, and reduce system life-cycle costs. The component technologies described are smart materials and structures, multifunctional materials and structures, affordable composite structures, extreme environment structures, flexible load bearing structures, and computational methods and simulation-based design. The trends in each of the component technologies are discussed and the applicability of these technologies to future aerospace vehicles is described.

Delineating an Educational Policy Framework for the Developing Nations in Meeting the Emerging Global Challenges by Year 2050

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sedere, Upali M.

2008-01-01

School based general education aught to be a future oriented subject. However, over the years, due to parental and grand-parental generations setting policies of education for the younger generation, education is always more past oriented than future oriented. This trend did not cause much of a problem when the change over time was moderate. As…

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

PubMed

Nordam, Tor; Dunnebier, Dorien A E; Beegle-Krause, C J; Reed, Mark; Slagstad, Dag

2017-12-01

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

Professional Development Opportunities for Early Childhood Educators in Community-Based Child Care Centers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesay, Joanne Palermo

2008-01-01

In this study, the staff development opportunities among early childhood educators in community-based, nonprofit child care centers were investigated. The trends for professional development and implications for future staff development were determined from data gathered from surveys completed by 12 lead teachers, 5 paraprofessionals, and 5…

Steps to Evaluating a Statewide Internship Program: Model, Trainee, and Student Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Julie Q.; Graden, Janet L.; Barnett, David W.

2009-01-01

Internships play a pivotal role in the future of school psychology, and internship training is influenced by disciplinary trends including (a) an increased focus on accountability and demonstrating the positive impact of trainees' practices on student outcomes and (b) growing emphasis on scientifically based and empirically based practice. These…

Multi-Core Processors: An Enabling Technology for Embedded Distributed Model-Based Control (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

generation of process partitioning, a thread pipelining becomes possible. In this paper we briefly summarize the requirements and trends for FADEC based... FADEC environment, presenting a hypothetical realization of an example application. Finally we discuss the application of Time-Triggered...based control applications of the future. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Gas turbine, FADEC , Multi-core processing technology, disturbed based control

The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in...

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

The outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use among pregnant and birthing women: current trends and future directions.

PubMed

Steel, Amie; Adams, Jon; Sibbritt, David; Broom, Alex

2015-06-01

Complementary and alternative medicine is used by a substantial number of pregnant women and maternity care providers are often faced with the task of ensuring women are using safe and effective treatments while respecting a woman's right to autonomous decision-making. In the era of evidence-based medicine maternity health professionals are expected to draw upon the best available evidence when making clinical decisions and providing health advice. This review will outline the current trends in research evidence associated with the outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use amongst pregnant and birthing women as well as highlight some potential directions for future development in this important yet largely unknown topic in contemporary maternity care.

Measurement of historical cliff-top changes and estimation of future trends using GIS data between Bridlington and Hornsea - Holderness Coast (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castedo, Ricardo; de la Vega-Panizo, Rogelio; Fernández-Hernández, Marta; Paredes, Carlos

2015-02-01

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 km between Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI's ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use by managers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fang; Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

2014-04-01

Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan et al., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called “superemitters”, and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010-2030.

Trends in cancer incidence in female breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and ovary in India.

PubMed

Yeole, Balkrishna B

2008-01-01

Trends in breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers in six population based cancer registries (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal, and Barshi) were evaluated over a period of the last two decades. For studying trends we used a model that fits this data is the logarithm of Y=ABx which represents a Linear Regression model. This approach showed a decreasing trend for cancer of the cervix and increasing trends for cancers of breast, ovary and corpus uteri throughout the entire period of observation in most of the registries. The four cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri and ovary, constitute more than 50% of total cancers in women. As all these cancers are increasing, to understand their etiology in depth, analytic epidemiology studies should be planned in a near future on a priority basis.

Looking to the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

College Planning & Management, 1999

1999-01-01

Presents administrator's views on possible trends in college and universities. Addresses: hazardous waste disposal; privatization of custodial services; libraries and technology; building product purchases based on life-cycle cost; continuing education for employees; armed campus security; fees and tuition collection via online transactions; and…

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network

PubMed Central

Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. PMID:29420584

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

PubMed

Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Seven Future Trends in the Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satterlee, Brian; Craig, Will

In the future, seven trends--already firmly established--will become dominant in the world of work. Those trends are as follows: (1) middle management positions will continue to be cut; (2) project teams will be assembled for a single purpose; (3) more women will have executive leadership roles; (4) organizations will continue to increase their…

Toward a More Equitable Future: The Trends and Challenges Facing America's Latino Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foxen, Patricia; Mather, Mark

2016-01-01

Rapid demographic change is transforming the landscape of America in exciting and challenging ways. This report, an update of the 2010 publication "America's Future: Latino Child Well-Being in Numbers and Trends," provides a comprehensive overview of national and state-level trends in the characteristics and well-being of Hispanic…

Threats to coastal communities of Mahanadi delta due to imminent consequences of erosion - Present and near future.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Ghosh, Pramit; Chanda, Abhra; Ghosh, Amit; Ghosh, Subhajit; Das, Shouvik; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

2018-05-11

Coastal erosion is a natural hazard which causes significant loss to properties as well as coastal habitats. Coastal districts of Mahanadi delta, one of the most populated deltas of the Indian subcontinent, are suffering from the ill effects of coastal erosion. An important amount of assets is being lost every year along with forced migration of huge portions of coastal communities due to erosion. An attempt has been made in this study to predict the future coastline of the Mahanadi Delta based on historical trends. Historical coastlines of the delta have been extracted using semi-automated Tasselled Cap technique from the LANDSAT satellite imageries of the year 1990, 1995, 2000, 2006 and 2010. Using Digital Shoreline Assessment System (DSAS) tool of USGS, the trend of the coastline has been assessed in the form of End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR). A hybrid methodology has been adopted using statistical (EPR) and trigonometric functions to predict the future positions of the coastlines of the years 2020, 2035 and 2050. The result showed that most of the coastline (≈65%) is facing erosion at present. The predicted outcome shows that by the end of year 2050 the erosion scenario will worsen which in turn would lead to very high erosion risk for 30% of the total coastal mouzas (small administrative blocks). This study revealed the coastal erosion trend of Mahanadi delta and based on the predicted coastlines it can be inferred that the coastal communities in near future would be facing substantial threat due to erosion particularly in areas surrounding Puri (a renowned tourist pilgrimage) and Paradwip (one of the busiest ports and harbours of the country). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current Trends in Electronic Medication Reminders for Self Care.

PubMed

Fang, Kerry Y; Maeder, Anthony J; Bjering, Heidi

2016-01-01

Poor adherence to medication can lead to negative health outcomes and increased financial burdens. We present a literature review on electronic medication reminders used for medication adherence in self care settings, to identify current and possible future trends. A structured PubMed search based on extracted MeSH terms provided a total of 45 publications which were identified as most relevant. Three main categories of electronic solutions were identified: mobile phone reminders, in-home electronic reminder devices, and portable reminder devices.

Academic food-supply veterinarians: future demand and likely shortages.

PubMed

Bruce Prince, J; Andrus, David M; Gwinner, Kevin

2006-01-01

The future demand for and potential shortages of food-supply veterinarians have been the subject of much concern. Using the Delphi forecasting method in a three-phase Web-based survey process, a panel of experts identified the trends and issues shaping the demand for and supply of academic food-animal veterinarians, then forecasted the likely future demand and shortages of food-supply veterinarians employed in academic institutions in the United States and Canada through 2016. The results indicate that there will be increasing future demand and persistent shortages of academic food-supply veterinarians unless current trends are countered with targeted, strategic action. The Delphi panel also evaluated the effectiveness of several strategies for reversing current trends and increasing the number of food-supply veterinarians entering into academic careers. Academic food-supply veterinarians are a key link in the system that produces food-supply veterinarians for all sectors (private practice, government service, etc.); shortages in the academic sector will amplify shortages wherever food-supply veterinarians are needed. Even fairly small shortages have significant public-health, food-safety, animal-welfare, and bio-security implications. Recent events demonstrate that in an increasingly interconnected global economic food supply system, national economies and public health are at risk unless an adequate supply of appropriately trained food-supply veterinarians is available to counter a wide variety of threats ranging from animal and zoonotic diseases to bioterrorism.

Demographic and Anthropometric Assessment of US Army Anthropometric Data Base

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

suggest that any projections for future demographic characterizations for the Army should be based on Army data and policy alone, and not on trends...decade in adults. 33 .7.-a , ... ,5 ,.W *.1n LU) I--4 cncd Cc 0 U) 4- 34 Military surveys, which are generally conducted on subjects either at or near the

Current Practices and Future Directions in Reporting Disability in School-Based Physical Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haegele, Justin Anthony; Hodge, Samuel

2017-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to determine what trends exist in the identification and description of participants with disabilities used in school-based physical education research. A total of 60 research articles published in the "Journal of Teaching in Physical Education" from 2010-2014 which included school-aged individuals…

The Intersection of Afterschool and Competency-Based Learning: Emerging Trends, Policy Considerations, and Questions for the Future. AYPF White Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lerner, Jennifer Brown; Tomasello, Jenna; Brand, Betsy; Knowles, George

2016-01-01

Afterschool and competency-based learning are increasingly emerging as student-centered, supportive learning models to prepare students for college and career. This white paper explores the intersection and relationship between these two fields, recommends ideal policy environments for implementing successful programs, provides real-world…

About the Federal Energy Management Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard Kidd

2009-04-23

Richard Kidd, Program Manager for the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), presents a discussion on FEMP direction and its future role, federal funding trends, future financing trends, and Earth Day observations.

Structural dynamics technology research in NASA: Perspective on future needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The perspective of a NASA ad hoc study group on future research needs in structural dynamics within the aerospace industry is presented. The common aspects of the design process across the industry are identified and the role of structural dynamics is established through a discussion of various design considerations having their basis in structural dynamics. The specific structural dynamics issues involved are identified and assessed as to their current technological status and trends. Projections of future requirements based on this assessment are made and areas of research to meet them are identified.

Remote Sensing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Kover, Allan W.

1978-01-01

The steady growth of the Landsat image data base continues to make this kind of remotely sensed data second only to aerial photographs in use by geoscientists who employ image data in their research. Article reviews data uses, meetings and symposia, publications, problems, and future trends. (Author/MA)

Information Technology for Economic and Social Benefit--Options for Bangladesh.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhuiyan, Farhad Ali

2002-01-01

Considers how information technology (IT) can help socioeconomic growth of developing countries based on experiences in Bangladesh. Topics include Bangladesh's development plans; future economic growth trends triggered by IT; emerging technologies; intellectual and societal development; industrial revolutions; telematics; regional and world…

Teacher Education Futures: Today's Trends, Tomorrow's Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aubusson, Peter; Schuck, Sandy

2013-01-01

Education is facing significant political and contextual challenges that will impact its future. This study employs a Delphi methodology to investigate teacher educators' views of current trends and their consequences for teacher education futures. Interviews were conducted with a sample of expert teacher educators drawn from eight countries. This…

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Meagan B; Kocovski, Nancy L

2016-01-01

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.

Plant stem cells in cosmetics: current trends and future directions

PubMed Central

Trehan, Sonia; Michniak-Kohn, Bozena; Beri, Kavita

2017-01-01

Plant regeneration at the cellular and tissue level is a unique process. Similar to animals, the stem cells in plants have properties that help stimulate and regenerate plants after injury. The unique properties of plant stem cells have been a recent area of interest and focus both in developing new cosmetics and studying how these extracts/phytohormones will influence animal skin. This special report focuses on the current evidence-based trends in plant stem cell-based cosmetics and sheds light on the challenges that we need to overcome in order to see meaningful changes in human skin using topical cosmetics derived from plant stem cells. PMID:29134115

Macro Trends and the Future of Public Health Practice.

PubMed

Erwin, Paul Campbell; Brownson, Ross C

2017-03-20

Public health practice in the twenty-first century is in a state of significant flux. Several macro trends are impacting the current practice of governmental public health and will likely have effects for many years to come. These macro trends are described as forces of change, which are changes that affect the context in which the community and its public health system operate. This article focuses on seven such forces of change: the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, public health agency accreditation, climate change, health in all policies, social media and informatics, demographic transitions, and globalized travel. Following the description of each of these, this article then turns to possible approaches to measuring, tracking, and understanding the impact of these forces of change on public health practice, including the use of evidence-based public health, practice-based research, and policy surveillance.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP.

PubMed

Rindermann, Heiner; Pichelmann, Stefan

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups' (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Beech, A J

2001-11-01

Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

Web N.0, the New Development Trend of Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhiguo; Wang, Wensheng

This article analyzes the Internet basic theory, the network foundation environment and the user behavior change and so on, Which analyzes the development tendency of existing partial Internet products in the future Internet environment. The article also hot on the concept of cloud computing, Demonstrates the relation between Cloud Computing and Web 2.0 from the angle of Cloud-based end-user applications, The possibly killing application in the future was discussed.

Regional Economic Integration in the Developing World: Historical Trends at the Future Viability

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

elements of these previous integration experiences is essential , as it aids in assessing the future effectiveness of current developing country integration...assessed in order to elements of these previous integration see whether they have avoided the experiences is essential , as it aids in problems that...promote was felt that the inefficiency would only be industries that were more technologically temporary. What was essential was that based, especially

Challenges for the New Century: Trends That Will Influence Kentucky's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith-Mello, Michal; Childress, Michael T.; Watts, Amy; Watkins, John F.

Trends that will influence Kentucky's future were examined along with policy options for responding to those trends. According to the analysis, the effects of the new economy on Kentucky has been mixed. Although many Kentuckians have benefited from the new economy, the state's least educated and poorest residents are falling further behind the…

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayati, M. B.; Liu, C. Y.; English, J. M.

1981-01-01

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

Internet of Things in Health Trends Through Bibliometrics and Text Mining.

PubMed

Konstantinidis, Stathis Th; Billis, Antonis; Wharrad, Heather; Bamidis, Panagiotis D

2017-01-01

Recently a new buzzword has slowly but surely emerged, namely the Internet of Things (IoT). The importance of IoT is identified worldwide both by organisations and governments and the scientific community with an incremental number of publications during the last few years. IoT in Health is one of the main pillars of this evolution, but limited research has been performed on future visions and trends. Thus, in this study we investigate the longitudinal trends of Internet of Things in Health through bibliometrics and use of text mining. Seven hundred seventy eight (778) articles were retrieved form The Web of Science database from 1998 to 2016. The publications are grouped into thirty (30) clusters based on abstract text analysis resulting into some eight (8) trends of IoT in Health. Research in this field is obviously obtaining a worldwide character with specific trends, which are worth delineating to be in favour of some areas.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future of health care delivery in iran, opportunities and threats.

PubMed

Rajabi, F; Esmailzadeh, H; Rostamigooran, N; Majdzadeh, R; Doshmangir, L

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of important social and technological trends on health care delivery, in the context of developing "Iran's Health System Reform Plan by 2025". A detailed review of the national and international literature was done to identify the main trends affecting health system. To collect the experts' opinions about important trends and their impact on health care delivery, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and semi-structured in-depth interviews techniques were used. The study was based on the STEEP model. Final results were approved in an expert's panel session. The important social and technological trends, affecting health system in Iran in the next 15 years are demographic transition, epidemiologic transition, increasing bio-environmental pollution, increasing slums, increasing private sector partnership in health care delivery, moving toward knowledge-based society, development of information and communication technology, increasing use of high technologies in health system, and development of traditional and alternative medicine. The opportunities and threats resulting from the above mentioned trends were also assessed in this study. Increasing healthcare cost due to some trends like demographic and epidemiologic transition and uncontrolled increase in using new technologies in health care is one of the most important threats that the health system will be facing. The opportunities that advancement in technology and moving toward knowledge-based society create are important and should not be ignored.

Finance Project. Agenda Item 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntyre, Chuck

Based on an examination of the socioeconomic factors likely to affect community college financing in California from 1980 to 1985, this report presents recommendations for community college fiscal legislation during the state's 1981-82 legislative session. The report first outlines 17 assumptions concerning future trends in community college…

Certification of Physical Education Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bentz, Susan K.

The author discusses various trends in the preparation of physical education teachers, including emphasis on Title IX requirements and handicapped child needs. Future directions in teacher certification are surveyed, and it is urged that certification be based upon sequential training programs rather than course accumulation-credit hour…

Alternative Scenarios of the American Future: 1980-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Robert

This report is a summary of the findings of the societal trends survey completed at the National Forum on Learning and The American Future, which focused on factors influencing the future of adult learning. The survey questionnaire and results consist of 120 societal trend statements organized into sixteen different content areas: demography;…

Contract Training: Progress and Policy Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deegan, William L.; Drisko, Ronald

1985-01-01

Provides results of a national survey of community college contract training programs, including data on the extent of the colleges' involvement, centralization/decentralization of contract training, problems and benefits, and future trends. Discusses future policy trends. (HB)

Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

1980-09-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901-2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century, changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4.5), or decrease further (RCP 8.5), with important differences depending on the underlying land-use scenario. Future monoterpene emissions are expected to continue their present decreasing trend for all scenarios, possibly stabilizing from 2050 onwards (RCP 4.5). These results demonstrate the importance to take both natural vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic changes in land-use into account when estimating past and future BVOC emissions. They also indicate that a future global increase in BVOC emissions is improbable.

Heterogeneity of exposure and attribution of mesothelioma: Trends and strategies in two American counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, B. W.; Abraham, J. L.

2009-02-01

As mesothelioma risk has begun to decline in the United States, two trends are gaining relative importance. "Legacy" exposures causing this disease are most important in locales having past asbestos industry, shipyards, and/or local distribution of asbestos amphibole-containing material as a result. "Future" exposures are of particular concern in relation to so-called "naturally occurring asbestos" (NOA) areas which include unequivocally asbestiform amphibole. In this paper, Jefferson Parish, Louisiana is used as an example of the first trend, and El Dorado County, California as an example of the second. Available tumor registry, epidemiology, historical and mineralogical data, and lung-retained fibre content are used as indicators of disease and exposure. Jefferson Parish, LA was chosen as the prototype of "legacy" exposures on the basis of historical evidence of asbestos plants with known mesotheliomas in the workforce, known shipyards in the same area, EPA records of distribution of crocidolite-containing scrap to and remediation of over 1400 properties, NIOSH published data on mesothelioma by county, and exposure data including lung-retained fibre analyses in victims, where available. El Dorado, CA was chosen as the prototype of NOA amphibole exposures on the basis of tumor registry data, activity-based EPA sampling data in one area, and lung-retained fibre analyses in area pets, and future risk assessment based on tremolite-specific modelling in Libby, Montana and elsewhere. As expected, the legacy exposure area was high in mesothelioma incidence and mortality. Lung-retained fibre content confirms crocidolite exposures in exposed plant-workers and those exposed to crocidolite-containing scrap, and amosite in shipyard workers. In contrast, to date, cancer registry data in the NOA-amphibole ("future") county does not show a clear increase in incidence or mortality, but grouped county data from the area show a shift in higher incidence rates to the NOA areas and away from California "legacy" (e.g., shipyard) areas from 1988-2005. EPA active sampling has confirmed excess tremolite/ actinolite fibre(s) in air, although there is debate about its nature and the appropriateness of the area sampled. Lung-retained fibre in local pets shows unequivocally elevated asbestiform tremolite/ actinolite in areas thought to be most affected, but numbers are small. Future risk is expected to rise due to a vastly increased population base coupled with exposures potentially created by related construction activities. Although legacy exposures are producing smaller numbers of cases with time, they continue to occur at high rates, and new sources of legacy exposure are being discovered in highly localized "hotspots". Differential exposure sources remain a problem in attribution, but continued remediation seems the best strategy for prevention. In the "future" risk county and surrounding areas, incidence trends are less clear, but again highly localized exposures as opposed to broad areas seem important. Activity-based air sampling; targeted soil samples, and lung-retained fibre analyses may be useful in defining areas of highest future risk and potential prevention.

Future trends in the health care economy.

PubMed

Kajander, J; Samuels, M

1996-01-01

Most articles on the future of health care are by professionals involved in the delivery of health care services. This article is unique in that trends are examined from the perspective of the public and purchasers of care. The authors focus on 12 trends that are or will be affecting the industry, and on the sometimes unintended consequences and new conflicts that may develop.

The Evolvement of Automobile Steering System Based on TRIZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xinjun; Zhang, Shuang

Products and techniques pass through a process of birth, growth, maturity, death and quit the stage like biological evolution process. The developments of products and techniques conform to some evolvement rules. If people know and hold these rules, they can design new kind of products and forecast the develop trends of the products. Thereby, enterprises can grasp the future technique directions of products, and make product and technique innovation. Below, based on TRIZ theory, the mechanism evolvement, the function evolvement and the appearance evolvement of automobile steering system had been analyzed and put forward some new ideas about future automobile steering system.

Military Aircraft Propulsion Lubricants - Current and Future Trends

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

are presented in Table I. The selected candidate base oil was a blend of commercially available neopentyl polyol esters. It was selected based on...validation consisted of: 1. a neopentyl polyol ester blend 2. a deposit inhibitor (Ref. 7) 3. a heterocyclic amine oxidation inhibitor 4. dioctyldiphenyl...The use of a glycol or a synthetic hydrocarbon (polyalphaolefin (PAO)) based fluid has been suggested as a possible basestock material for this oil

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yajuan; Wang, Lei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xidong

2015-11-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

Trends in hormone use and ovarian cancer incidence in US white and Australian women: implications for the future.

PubMed

Webb, Penelope M; Green, Adèle C; Jordan, Susan J

2017-05-01

To compare trends in ovarian cancer incidence in the USA and Australia in relation to changes in oral contraceptive pill (OCP) and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use. US cancer incidence data (1973-2013) were accessed via SEER*Stat; Australian data (1982-2012) were accessed from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Cancer Incidence and Mortality books. Age-period-cohort models were constructed to assess trends in ovarian cancer incidence by birth cohort and year of diagnosis. Ovarian cancer rates were increasing until the cohorts born around 1918 in the USA and 1923 in Australia who were the first to use the OCP. They then declined dramatically across subsequent cohorts such that rates for the 1968 cohort were about half those of women born 45 years earlier; however, there are early suggestions that this decline may not continue in more recent cohorts. In contrast, despite the large reduction in MHT use, there was no convincing evidence that ovarian cancer incidence rates in either country were lower after 2002 than would have been expected based on the declining trend from 1985. The major driver of ovarian cancer incidence rates appears to be the OCP. This means that when those women born since the late 1960s (who have used the OCP at high rates from an early age) reach their 60s and 70s, incidence rates are likely to stop falling and may even increase with changes in the prevalence of other factors such as tubal ligation and obesity. Forward predictions based on past trends may thus underestimate future rates and numbers of women likely to be affected.

Projection of landfill stabilization period by time series analysis of leachate quality and transformation trends of VOCs.

PubMed

Sizirici, Banu; Tansel, Berrin

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate suitability of using the time series analysis for selected leachate quantity and quality parameters to forecast the duration of post closure period of a closed landfill. Selected leachate quality parameters (i.e., sodium, chloride, iron, bicarbonate, total dissolved solids (TDS), and ammonium as N) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (i.e., vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, chlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, total BTEX) were analyzed by the time series multiplicative decomposition model to estimate the projected levels of the parameters. These parameters were selected based on their detection levels and consistency of detection in leachate samples. In addition, VOCs detected in leachate and their chemical transformations were considered in view of the decomposition stage of the landfill. Projected leachate quality trends were analyzed and compared with the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for the respective parameters. Conditions that lead to specific trends (i.e., increasing, decreasing, or steady) and interactions of leachate quality parameters were evaluated. Decreasing trends were projected for leachate quantity, concentrations of sodium, chloride, TDS, ammonia as N, vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, and total BTEX. Increasing trends were projected for concentrations of iron, bicarbonate, and chlorobenzene. Anaerobic conditions in landfill provide favorable conditions for corrosion of iron resulting in higher concentrations over time. Bicarbonate formation as a byproduct of bacterial respiration during waste decomposition and the lime rock cap system of the landfill contribute to the increasing levels of bicarbonate in leachate. Chlorobenzene is produced during anaerobic biodegradation of 1,4-dichlorobenzene, hence, the increasing trend of chlorobenzene may be due to the declining trend of 1,4-dichlorobenzene. The time series multiplicative decomposition model in general provides an adequate forecast for future planning purposes for the parameters monitored in leachate. The model projections for 1,4-dichlorobenzene were relatively less accurate in comparison to the projections for vinyl chloride and chlorobenzene. Based on the trends observed, future monitoring needs for the selected leachate parameters were identified.

The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study

PubMed Central

Webber, Laura; Divajeva, Diana; Marsh, Tim; McPherson, Klim; Brown, Martin; Galea, Gauden; Breda, Joao

2014-01-01

Objective Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the biggest cause of death in Europe putting an unsustainable burden on already struggling health systems. Increases in obesity are a major cause of NCDs. This paper projects the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes and seven cancers by 2030 in 53 WHO European Region countries based on current and past body mass index (BMI) trends. It also tests the impact of obesity interventions on the future disease burden. Setting and participants Secondary data analysis of country-specific epidemiological data using a microsimulation modelling process. Interventions The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%. Primary and secondary outcome measures Quantifying the future burden of major NCDs and the impact of interventions on this future disease burden. Results By 2030 in the whole of the European region, the prevalence of diabetes, CHD and stroke and cancers was projected to reach an average of 3990, 4672 and 2046 cases/100 000, respectively. The highest prevalence of diabetes was predicted in Slovakia (10 870), CHD and stroke—in Greece (11 292) and cancers—in Finland (5615 cases/100 000). A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases. The largest reduction in diabetes and CHD and stroke was observed in Slovakia (3054 and 3369 cases/100 000, respectively), and in cancers was predicted in Germany (331/100 000). Conclusions Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs. Future research will allow real policy interventions to be tested; however, better surveillance data on NCDs and their risk factors are essential for research and policy. PMID:25063459

Observed SWE trends and climate analysis for Northwest Pacific North America: validation for future projection of SWE using the CRCM and VIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Bronaugh, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

2008-12-01

Observational databases of snow water equivalent (SWE) have been collected from Alaska, western US states and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and territories of NWT, and the Yukon. These databases were initially validated to remove inconsistencies and errors in the station records, dates or the geographic co-ordinates of the station. The cleaned data was then analysed for historical (1950 to 2006) trend using emerging techniques for trend detection based on (first of the month) estimates for January to June. Analysis of SWE showed spatial variability in the count of records across the six month time period, and this study illustrated differences between Canadian and US (or the north and south) collection. Two different data sets (one gridded and one station) were then used to analyse April 1st records, for which there was the greatest spatial spread of station records for analysis with climate information. Initial results show spatial variability (in both magnitude and direction of trend) for trend results, and climate correlations and principal components indicate different drivers of change in SWE across the western US, Canada and north to Alaska. These results will be used to validate future predictions of SWE that are being undertaken using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model for Western Northern America (CRCM) and British Columbia (VIC).

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

2007-10-01

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

Jet aircraft emissions during cruise: Present and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J. S.

1975-01-01

Forecasts of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are compared to cruise emission for present day aircraft. The forecasts are based on: (1) knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) combustion research in emission reduction technology, and (3) trends in projected engine designs for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Recent progress that was made in the evolution of emissions reduction technology is discussed.

Current and Emerging Forces Impacting Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yates, James R.

Using the methodology of force field analysis, the paper develops possible futures for special education based on current trends. Demographic forces impacting special education include age changes, ethnicity changes, the needs of emerging language minorities, specific change in the youth population, environmental factors and the incidence of…

Strategic Issues: Priorities for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alamo Community Coll. District, San Antonio, TX.

Strategic priorities for the Alamo Community College District (ACCD) are identified based on conclusions drawn by the ACCD Community Advisory Council from studies of: (1) Bexar County population characteristics and trends; (2) community economic and social priorities; (3) college enrollment potential; (4) needs and characteristics of the ACCD's…

Summary Report for the Workshop on Integrating Climate Change Adaption into Air Quality Decision Making

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past few decades, air quality planners have forecasted future air pollution levels based on information about changing emissions from stationary and mobile sources, population trends, transportation demand, natural sources of emissions, and other pressures on air quality...

Technology Trends: Buying a Computer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strot, Melody; Benno, Mark

1997-01-01

Provides guidelines for buying computers for parents of gifted children. Steps for making decisions include deciding who will use the computer, deciding its purposes and what software packages will be used, determining current and future needs, setting a budget, and reviewing needs with salespersons and school-based technology specialists. (CR)

Maintenance of an Adequate Dental Hygiene Education System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ley, Eugene; And Others

1984-01-01

Administrative decisions about the future of dental hygiene programs are often based on inadequate information about employment trends and about the importance of the dental hygienist in dental practices. Studies indicate that demand for dental hygiene services will remain high in the 1980s. (Author/MLW)

World Trends and Alternative Futures. Open Grants Papers No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McHale, John; Cordell, Magda

We are now at a stage in human global development in which the continuous review and assessment of the long-range future implications of our past and present actions becomes crucially important for the survival of human society. This report includes a synoptic view of world trends and alternative futures. The first and major portion of the…

Future trends in society and technology: implications for wilderness research and management

Treesearch

George H. Stankey

2000-01-01

Judging the impact of social and technological trends on the future of wilderness is complex. Declining public trust, growing demands for scrutiny, a need to recognize the link between biophysical and socioeconomic systems, and the need for criteria to select among alternative futures challenge us. A burgeoning global population will increase resource impacts, but more...

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

Climate Change and the Long-term Viability of the World's Busiest Heavy Haul Ice Road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, D.

2016-12-01

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World's busiest heavy haul ice road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Swindles, Graeme; Patterson, Tim; Galloway, Jennifer; Macumber, Andrew; Falck, Hendrik; Crossley, Laura; Chen, Jie; Pisaric, Michael

2017-08-01

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa; Altunkaynak, Abdusselam

2018-03-01

In this study, extreme rainfall indices of Olimpiyat Station were determined from reference period (1971-2000) and future period (2070-2099) daily rainfall data projected using the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled by the RegCM4.3.4 regional model under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend statistics was used to detect trends in the indices of each group, and the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was employed to identify the presence of differences among the values of the rainfall indices of the three groups. Moreover, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method was used to undertake frequency analysis and estimate the maximum 24-h rainfall values of various return periods. The results of the M-K-based trend analyses showed that there are insignificant increasing trends in most of the extreme rainfall indices. However, based on the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the values of the extreme rainfall indices determined for the future period, particularly under RCP8.5, were found to be significantly different from the corresponding values determined for the reference period. The maximum 24-h rainfall amounts of the 50-year return period of the future period under RCP4.5 of the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs were found to be larger (by 5.85%) than the corresponding value of the reference period by 5.85 and 21.43%, respectively. The results also showed that the maximum 24-h rainfall amount under RCP8.5 of both the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs was found to be greater (34.33 and 12.18%, respectively, for the 50-year return period) than the reference period values. This may increase the risk of flooding in Ayamama Watershed, and thus, studying the effects of the predicted amount of rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario on the flooding risk of Ayamama Watershed and devising management strategies are recommended to enhance the design and implementation of adaptation measures.

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yunhe; Wu, Shaohong; Zhao, Dongsheng

2013-10-01

evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, patterns and trends of evapotranspiration and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are complex and poorly understood. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture (defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)) based on the modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981-2010 and future climate projections were generated by a regional climate model through the 21st century. The results show regional trends towards decreasing ETo and statistically significant increases in ETa (p < 0.05) and effective moisture during the period 1981-2010 (p < 0.001). A transition from significant negative to positive ETo occurred in 1997. Additionally, a pronounced increase in effective moisture occurred during the period 1981-1997 because of significant decreased ETo before 1997. In the future, regional ETo and ETa are projected to increase, thus reducing drought stress, because of generally increased effective moisture. Future regional differences are most pronounced in terms of effective moisture, which shows notable increases in the northwestern plateau and decreases in the southeastern plateau. Moreover, the reduced magnitude of effective moisture is likely to intensify in the long term, due mainly to increased evaporative demand.

The Northern Forest Futures Project: examining past, present, and future trends affecting forests in and around the central hardwood forest region

Treesearch

Stephen Shifley

2013-01-01

Th e Northern Forest Futures Project is intended to be a window on tomorrow's forests, revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the Northeast and Midwest. Th e research is focused on the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri and Minnesota—the most heavily forested and most densely populated quadrant of the...

Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maceira, Monica; Blom, Philip Stephen; MacCarthy, Jonathan K.

This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the documentmore » for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.« less

Monitoring and control requirement definition study for Dispersed Storage and Generation (DSG). Volume 3, appendix B: State of the art, trends, and potential growth of selected DSG technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Present and future relatively small (30 MW) energy systems, such as solar thermal electric, photovoltaic, wind, fuel cell, storage battery, hydro, and cogeneration can help achieve national energy goals and can be dispersed throughout the distribution portion of an electric utility system. Based on current projections, it appears that dispersed storage and generation (DSG) electrical energy will comprise only a small portion, from 4 to 10 percent, of the national total by the end of this century. In general, the growth potential for DSG seems favorable in the long term because of finite fossil energy resources and increasing fuel prices. Recent trends, especially in the institutional and regulatory fields, favor greater use of the DSGs for the future.

Monitoring and control requirement definition study for Dispersed Storage and Generation (DSG). Volume 3, appendix B: State of the art, trends, and potential growth of selected DSG technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1980-10-01

Present and future relatively small (30 MW) energy systems, such as solar thermal electric, photovoltaic, wind, fuel cell, storage battery, hydro, and cogeneration can help achieve national energy goals and can be dispersed throughout the distribution portion of an electric utility system. Based on current projections, it appears that dispersed storage and generation (DSG) electrical energy will comprise only a small portion, from 4 to 10 percent, of the national total by the end of this century. In general, the growth potential for DSG seems favorable in the long term because of finite fossil energy resources and increasing fuel prices. Recent trends, especially in the institutional and regulatory fields, favor greater use of the DSGs for the future.

Nanotechnology Based Materials and Devices for Health Care

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srivastava, Deepaka; Cho, K.; Brenner, Don; Menon, Madhu; Andriotis, Antonis; Sagman, Uri; Biegel, Bryan A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on trends in NASA nanotechnology research and development, and future biotechnological applications for that nanotechnology. The presentation covers nanoelectronics, nanosensors, and nanomaterials, biomimetics, devices and materials for health care, carbon nanotubes, biosensors for astrobiology, solid-state nanopores for DNA sequencing, and protein nanotubes.

Scholarly Journals on the Net: A Reader's Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bishop, Ann Peterson

1995-01-01

Assesses the ease of use and usefulness of network journals through a review of content, format, and policies of seven scholarly journals published primarily on the Internet. Discusses problems, advantages over print journals, and requirements for future scholarly network journals based on current technology, industry trends, and interviews with…

The Contribution of Geography to Current Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerasimov, I. P.

1975-01-01

The three main principles on which geographical knowledge is based are regionalism, ecology, and anthropogenesis. The role that each of these principles has played in the development of geographical science is examined. Current and future trends in geography are also discussed. For address of journal see SO 504 028. (Author/RM)

Online Searching with a Microcomputer--Getting Started.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casbon, Susan

1983-01-01

Based on online searching experiences on microcomputer at a small liberal arts college, this article outlines for the novice advantages and disadvantages of micro-searching, legal implications, future trends, and factors to consider in selecting hardware and software. A 16-item bibliography arranged in order of usefulness and 10 references are…

Strategic Planning in Education: A Guide for Policymakers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Harry A.

As defined in chapter I of this guide for policymakers, strategic planning is the method by which an organization identifies relevant trends in its environment, analyzes their potential implications, and projects an integrated strategy to address these future events and their contingencies. This process differs from formalized planning, based on…

A comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from iron and steel industry in China: Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics.

PubMed

Wang, Kun; Tian, Hezhong; Hua, Shenbing; Zhu, Chuanyong; Gao, Jiajia; Xue, Yifeng; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yong; Zhou, Junrui

2016-07-15

China has become the largest producer of iron and steel throughout the world since 1996. However, as an energy-and-pollution intensive manufacturing sector, a detailed comprehensive emission inventory of air pollutants for iron and steel industry of China is still not available. To obtain and better understand the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emissions from iron and steel production in China, a comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants, including size segregated particulate matter (TSP/PM10/PM2.5), gaseous pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO), heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni etc.), as well as the more dangerous PCDD/Fs, is established with the unit-based annual activity, specific dynamic emission factors for the historical period of 1978-2011, and the future potential trends till to 2050 are forecasted by using scenario analysis. Our results show that emissions of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter have experienced a gradual increase tendency since 2000, while emissions of priority-controlled heavy metals (Hg, Pb, As, Cd, Cr, and Ni) have exhibited a short-term fluctuation during the period of 1990 to 2005. With regard to the spatial distribution of HAPs emissions in base year 2011, Bohai economic circle is identified as the top emission intensity region where iron and steel smelting plants are densely built; within iron and steel industry, blast furnaces contribute the majority of PM emissions, sinter plants account for most of gaseous pollutants and the majority of PCDD/Fs, whereas steel making processes are responsible for the majority of heavy metal emissions. Moreover, comparisons of future emission trends under three scenarios indicate that advanced technologies and integrated whole process management strategies are in great need to further diminish various hazardous air pollutants from iron and steel industry in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The case-case-time-control study design].

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Zhuo, Lin; Zhan, Siyan

2014-12-01

Although the 'self-matched case-only studies' (such as the case-cross-over or self-controlled case-series method) can control the time-invariant confounders (measured or unmeasured) through design of the study, however, they can not control those confounders that vary with time. A bidirectional case-crossover design can be used to adjust the exposure-time trends. In the areas of pharmaco-epidemiology, illness often influence the future use of medications, making a bidirectional study design problematic. Suissa's case-time-control design combines the case-crossover and the case-control design which could adjust for exposure-trend bias, but the control group may reintroduce selection bias, if the matching does not go well. We propose a "case-case-time-control" design which is an extension of the case-time-control design. However, rather than using a sample of external controls, we choose those future cases as controls for current cases to counter the bias that arising from temporal trends caused by exposure to the target of interest. In the end of this article we will discuss the strength and limitations of this design based on an applied example.

Trends in aeropropulsion research and their impact on engineering education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Povinelli, Louis A.; Reichert, Bruce A.; Glassman, Arthur J.

1992-01-01

This presentation is concerned with the trends in aeropropulsion both in the U.S. and abroad and the impact of these trends on the educational process in our universities. In this paper, we shall outline the new directions for research which may be of interest to educators in the aeropropulsion field. Awareness of new emphases, such as emission reductions, noise control, maneuverability, speed, etc., will have a great impact on engineering educators responsible for restructuring courses in propulsion. The information presented herein will also provide some background material for possible consideration in the future development of propulsion courses. In describing aeropropulsion, we are concerned primarily with air-breathing propulsion; however many observations apply equally as well to rocket engine systems. Aeropropulsion research needs are primarily motivated by technologies required for advanced vehicle systems and frequently driven by external requirements such as economic competitiveness, environmental concern and national security. In this presentation, vehicle based research is first described, followed by a discussion of discipline and multidiscipline research necessary to implement the vehicle-focused programs. The importance of collaboration in research and the training of future researchers concludes this presentation.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and Trend Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gwyer, Roisin

2015-01-01

This article compares three sources of information about academic libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is the contents of "New Review of Academic Librarianship" (formerly "British Journal of Academic Librarianship") from 1986,…

The Future of the Campus: Architecture and Master Planning Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulson, Jonathan; Roberts, Paul; Taylor, Isabelle

2015-01-01

The article discusses current and likely future trends within the architecture and master planning of university campuses. It argues that higher education administrators must maximise the value of the campus to create physical environments that enhance the student experience.

Assessing and evaluating recreational uses of water resources: implications for an integrated management framework.

Treesearch

Christina Kakoyannis; George H. Stankey

2002-01-01

To resolve conflicts over water, we need an understanding of human uses and values for water. In this study, we explore how water-based recreation affects and is affected by the water regime and water management and how key social trends might influence future water-based recreation. We found that although water is a critical component of many recreational experiences...

Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

PubMed

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-11-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land use in Maine: determinants of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Plantinga; Thomas Mauldlin; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

About 90 percent of the land in Maine is in forests. We analyzed past land use trends in Maine and developed projections of future land use. Since the 1950s, the area of forest in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres; however, the trends differ among ownerships, as the area of nonindustrial private timberland declined by 800,000 acres since 1950, while private...

The Hospital of the Future. Megatrends, Driving Forces, Barriers to Implementation, Overarching Perspectives, Major Trends into the Future, Implications for TATRC And Specific Recommendations for Action

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-10-01

Healthcare Systems Will Be Those That Work With Data/Info In New Ways • Artificial Intelligence Will Come to the Fore o Effectively Acquire...Education • Artificial Intelligence Will Assist in o History and Physical Examination o Imaging Selection via algorithms o Test Selection via algorithms...medical language into a simulation model based upon artificial intelligence , and • the content verification and validation of the cognitive

Temporal trends of mercury in eggs of five sympatrically breeding seabird species in the Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Braune, Birgit M; Gaston, Anthony J; Mallory, Mark L

2016-07-01

We compared temporal trends of total mercury (Hg) in eggs of five seabird species breeding at Prince Leopold Island in the Canadian high Arctic. As changes in trophic position over time have the potential to influence contaminant temporal trends, Hg concentrations were adjusted for trophic position (measured as δ(15)N). Adjusted Hg concentrations in eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) increased from 1975 to the 1990s, followed by a plateauing of levels from the 1990s to 2014. Trends of adjusted Hg concentrations in eggs of murres, fulmars, black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) had negative slopes between 1993 and 2013. Adjusted Hg concentrations in glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) eggs decreased by 50% from 1993 to 2003 before starting to increase again. Glaucous gull eggs had the highest Hg concentrations followed by black guillemot eggs, and black-legged kittiwake eggs had the lowest concentrations consistently in the five years compared between 1993 and 2013. Based on published toxicological thresholds for Hg in eggs, there is little concern for adverse reproductive effects due to Hg exposure in these birds, although the levels in glaucous gull eggs warrant future scrutiny given the increase in Hg concentrations observed in recent years. There is evidence that the Hg trends observed reflect changing anthropogenic Hg emissions. It remains unclear, however, to what extent exposure to Hg on the overwintering grounds influences the Hg trends observed in the seabird eggs at Prince Leopold Island. Future research should focus on determining the extent to which Hg exposure on the breeding grounds versus the overwintering areas contribute to the trends observed in the eggs. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yeon-Woo; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

In this study, the projection of future drought conditions is estimated over South Korea based on the latest and most advanced sets of regional climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios, within the context of the national downscaling project of the Republic of Korea. The five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to produce climate-change simulations around the Korean Peninsula and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these simulations. The horizontal resolution of each RCM is 12.5 km and model simulations are available for historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2100) periods under forcing from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To assess the characteristics of drought on multiple time scales in the future, we use Standardized Precipitation Indices for 1-month (SPI- 1), 6-month (SPI-6) and 12-month (SPI-12). The number of drought months in the future is shown to be characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends among the scenarios. In particular, the number of drought months over South Korea is projected to increase (decrease) for the period 2041-2070 in the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and increase (decrease) for the period 2071-2100 in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, the percentage area under any drought condition is overall projected to gradually decrease over South Korea during the entire future period, with the exception of SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario. Particularly, the drought areas for SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario show weakly positive long-term trend. Otherwise, future changes in drought areas for SPI-6 and SPI-12 have a marked downward trend under the two RCP scenarios.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Analysis of Science and Technology Trend Based on Word Usage in Digitized Books

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Jinhyuk; Kim, Pan-Jun; Jeong, Hawoong

2013-03-01

Throughout mankind's history, forecasting and predicting future has been a long-lasting interest to our society. Many fortune-tellers have tried to forecast the future by ``divine'' items. Sci-fi writers have also imagined what the future would look like. However most of them have been illogical and unscientific. Meanwhile, scientists have also attempted to discover future trend of science. Many researchers have used quantitative models to study how new ideas are used and spread. Besides the modeling works, in the early 21st century, the rise of data science has provided another prospect of forecasting future. However many studies have focused on very limited set of period or age, due to the limitations of dataset. Hence, many questions still remained unanswered. Fortunately, Google released a new dataset named ``Google N-Gram Dataset.'' This dataset provides us with 5 million words worth of literature dating from 1520 to 2008, and this is nearly 4% of publications ever printed. With this new time-varying dataset, we studied the spread and development of technologies by searching ``Science and Technology'' related words from 1800 to 2000. By statistical analysis, some general scaling laws were discovered. And finally, we determined factors that strongly affect the lifecycle of a word.

Future Watch: Our Schools in the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Judith K.; Herer, Gilbert R.

1994-01-01

This article reviews major social, technological, economic, and political trends in the United States and relates this larger perspective to the practices of speech language pathologists and audiologists in the schools. Implications of these trends for alternative futures are drawn. (Author/DB)

Past and Future Trends in Light Truck Sales.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-08-01

This report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II) and its associated databases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the Light Duty Truck market. The dynamic historical growth in this market and its implications for ene...

Detecting seasonal and cyclical trends in agricultural runoff water quality-hypothesis tests and block bootstrap power analysis.

PubMed

Uddameri, Venkatesh; Singaraju, Sreeram; Hernandez, E Annette

2018-02-21

Seasonal and cyclic trends in nutrient concentrations at four agricultural drainage ditches were assessed using a dataset generated from a multivariate, multiscale, multiyear water quality monitoring effort in the agriculturally dominant Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) River Watershed in South Texas. An innovative bootstrap sampling-based power analysis procedure was developed to evaluate the ability of Mann-Whitney and Noether tests to discern trends and to guide future monitoring efforts. The Mann-Whitney U test was able to detect significant changes between summer and winter nutrient concentrations at sites with lower depths and unimpeded flows. Pollutant dilution, non-agricultural loadings, and in-channel flow structures (weirs) masked the effects of seasonality. The detection of cyclical trends using the Noether test was highest in the presence of vegetation mainly for total phosphorus and oxidized nitrogen (nitrite + nitrate) compared to dissolved phosphorus and reduced nitrogen (total Kjeldahl nitrogen-TKN). Prospective power analysis indicated that while increased monitoring can lead to higher statistical power, the effect size (i.e., the total number of trend sequences within a time-series) had a greater influence on the Noether test. Both Mann-Whitney and Noether tests provide complementary information on seasonal and cyclic behavior of pollutant concentrations and are affected by different processes. The results from these statistical tests when evaluated in the context of flow, vegetation, and in-channel hydraulic alterations can help guide future data collection and monitoring efforts. The study highlights the need for long-term monitoring of agricultural drainage ditches to properly discern seasonal and cyclical trends.

Changes of reference evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin: Present observations and future projection from climatic variables through multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Peng, Shizhang; Yu, Zhongbo; Yong, Bin; Taylor, John

2014-04-01

As the most excellent indicator for hydrological cycle and a central link to water-balance calculations, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources systems since the climate change has been becoming more pronounced. In this study, we conduct an investigation on the spatial and temporal changes in ET0 of the Haihe River Basin in present and future stages. The ET0 in the past five decades (1961-2010) are calculated by the Penman-Monteith method with historical climatic variables in 40 sites while the ET0 estimation for the future period of 2011-2099 is based on the related climatic variables projected by Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach. Results can be summarized for the present and future as follows. (1) No coherent spatial patterns in ET0 changes are seen in the whole basin. Half of the stations distributed mainly in the eastern and southeastern plain regions present significant negative trends, while only 3 stations in the western mountainous and plateau basin show significant positive trends. Radiation is mainly responsible for the ET0 change in the southern and eastern basin, whereas relative humidity and wind speed are the leading factors in the eastern coastal and north parts. (2) BMA ensemble method is competent to produce lower bias in comparison with other common methods in this basin. Future spatiotemporal ET0 pattern analysis by means of the BMA method based on the ensembles of four CGCMs suggested that although the spatial patterns under three scenarios are different in the forthcoming two decades, generally increasing trends can be found in the 21st century, which is mainly attributed to the significant increasing temperature. In addition, the implication of future ET0 change in agriculture and local water resources is discussed as an extension of this work. The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the future water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management in the Haihe River Basin.

Analysis of the evolution of precipitation in the Haihe river basin of China under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiangyi; Liu, Jiahong; Gong, Jiaguo

2018-02-01

Precipitation is one of the important factors of water cycle and main sources of regional water resources. It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of precipitation under changing environment for identifying the evolution law of water resources, thus can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of related policies and measures. Generally, analysis of the evolution of precipitation consists of three levels: analysis the observed precipitation change based on measured data, explore the possible factors responsible for the precipitation change, and estimate the change trend of precipitation under changing environment. As the political and cultural centre of China, the climatic conditions in the Haihe river basin have greatly changed in recent decades. This study analyses the evolution of precipitation in the basin under changing environment based on observed meteorological data, GCMs and statistical methods. Firstly, based on the observed precipitation data during 1961-2000 at 26 meteorological stations in the basin, the actual precipitation change in the basin is analyzed. Secondly, the observed precipitation change in the basin is attributed using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and the causes of the observed precipitation change is identified. Finally, the change trend of precipitation in the basin under climate change in the future is predicted based on GCMs and a statistical downscaling model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the possible mutation time was 1965; 2) natural variability may be the factor responsible for the observed precipitation change in the basin; 3) under climate change in the future, precipitation in the basin will slightly increase by 4.8% comparing with the average, and the extremes will not vary significantly.

The linear trend of headache prevalence and some headache features in school children.

PubMed

Ozge, Aynur; Buğdayci, Resul; Saşmaz, Tayyar; Kaleağasi, Hakan; Kurt, Oner; Karakelle, Ali; Siva, Aksel

2007-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the age and sex dependent linear trend of recurrent headache prevalence in schoolchildren in Mersin. A stratified sample composed of 5562 children; detailed characteristics were previously published. In this study the prevalence distribution of headache by age and sex showed a peak in the female population at the age of 11 (27.2%) with a plateau in the following years. The great stratified random sample results suggested that, in addition to socio-demographic features, detailed linear trend analysis showed headache features of children with headache have some specific characteristics dependent on age, gender and headache type. This study results can constitute a basis for the future epidemiological based studies.

Novelty and Foreseeing Research Trends: The Case of Astrophysics and Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga, Attila

2018-05-01

Metrics based on reference lists of research articles or on keywords have been used to predict citation impact. The concept behind such metrics is that original ideas stem from the reconfiguration of the structure of past knowledge, and therefore atypical combinations in the reference lists, keywords, or classification codes indicate future high-impact research. The current paper serves as an introduction to this line of research for astronomers and also addresses some of the methodological questions in this field of innovation studies. It is still not clear if the choice of particular indexes, such as references to journals, articles, or specific bibliometric classification codes affects the relationship between atypical combinations and citation impact. To understand more aspects of the innovation process, a new metric has been devised to measure to what extent researchers are able to anticipate the changing combinatorial trends of the future. Results show that the variant of the latter anticipation scores that is based on paper combinations is a good predictor of the future citation impact of scholarly works. The study also shows that the effects of tested indexes vary with the aggregation levels that were used to construct them. A detailed analysis of combinatorial novelty in the field reveals that certain sub-fields of astronomy and astrophysics have different roles in the reconfiguration of past knowledge.

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Space qualification of silicon carbide for mirror applications: progress and future objectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palusinski, Iwona A.; Ghozeil, Isaac

2006-09-01

Production of optical silicon carbide (SiC) for mirror applications continues to evolve and there are renewed plans to use this material in future space-based systems. While SiC has the potential for rapid and cost-effective manufacturing of large, lightweight, athermal optical systems, this material's use in mirror applications is relatively new and has limited flight heritage. This combination of drivers stresses the necessity for a space qualification program for this material. Successful space qualification will require independent collaboration to absorb the high cost of executing this program while taking advantage of each contributing group's laboratory expertise to develop a comprehensive SiC database. This paper provides an overview of the trends and progress in the production of SiC, and identifies future objectives such as non-destructive evaluation and space-effects modeling to ensure proper implementation of this material into future space-based systems.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

Looking to the future of new media in health marketing: deriving propositions based on traditional theories.

PubMed

Della, Lindsay J; Eroglu, Dogan; Bernhardt, Jay M; Edgerton, Erin; Nall, Janice

2008-01-01

Market trend data show that the media marketplace continues to rapidly evolve. Recent research shows that substantial portions of the U.S. media population are "new media" users. Today, more than ever before, media consumers are exposed to multiple media at the same point in time, encouraged to participate in media content generation, and challenged to learn, access, and use the new media that are continually entering the market. These media trends have strong implications for how consumers of health information access, process, and retain health-related knowledge. In this article we review traditional information processing models and theories of interpersonal and mass media access and consumption. We make several theory-based propositions for how traditional information processing and media consumption concepts will function as new media usage continues to increase. These propositions are supported by new media usage data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's entry into the new media market (e.g., podcasting, virtual events, blogging, and webinars). Based on these propositions, we conclude by presenting both opportunities and challenges that public health communicators and marketers will face in the future.

Motor-based intervention protocols in treatment of childhood apraxia of speech (CAS)

PubMed Central

Maas, Edwin; Gildersleeve-Neumann, Christina; Jakielski, Kathy J.; Stoeckel, Ruth

2014-01-01

This paper reviews current trends in treatment for childhood apraxia of speech (CAS), with a particular emphasis on motor-based intervention protocols. The paper first briefly discusses how CAS fits into the typology of speech sound disorders, followed by a discussion of the potential relevance of principles derived from the motor learning literature for CAS treatment. Next, different motor-based treatment protocols are reviewed, along with their evidence base. The paper concludes with a summary and discussion of future research needs. PMID:25313348

An outlook for cargo aircraft of the future. [assessment of the future of air cargo by analyzing statistics and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicks, O. W.; Whitehead, A. H., Jr.; Alford, W. J., Jr.

1975-01-01

An assessment is provided of the future of air cargo by analyzing air cargo statistics and trends, by noting air cargo system problems and inefficiencies, by analyzing characteristics of air-eligible commodities, and by showing the promise of new technology for future cargo aircraft with significant improvements in costs and efficiency. NASA's proposed program is reviewed which would sponsor the research needed to provide for development of advanced designs by 1985.

Future perspectives of resin-based dental materials.

PubMed

Jandt, Klaus D; Sigusch, Bernd W

2009-08-01

This concise review and outlook paper gives a view of selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based biomaterials with an emphasis on dental composites. A selection of key publications (1 book, 35 scientific original publications and 1 website source) covering the areas nanotechnology, antimicrobial materials, stimuli responsive materials, self-repairing materials and materials for tissue engineering with direct or indirect relations and/or implications to resin-based dental materials is critically reviewed and discussed. Connections between these fields and their potential for resin-based dental materials are highlighted and put in perspective. The need to improve shrinkage properties and wear resistance is obvious for dental composites, and a vast number of attempts have been made to accomplish these aims. Future resin-based materials may be further improved in this respect if, for example nanotechnology is applied. Dental composites may, however, reach a completely new quality by utilizing new trends from materials science, such as introducing nanostructures, antimicrobial properties, stimuli responsive capabilities, the ability to promote tissue regeneration or repair of dental tissues if the composites were able to repair themselves. This paper shows selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based dental materials, gives basic and industrial researchers in dental materials science, and dental practitioners a glance into the potential future of these materials, and should stimulate discussion about needs and future developments in the area.

Marital age homogamy in China: A reversal of trend in the reform era?*

PubMed Central

Mu, Zheng; Xie, Yu

2014-01-01

This paper reports on a study of trends in marital age homogamy in China from 1960 to 2005 that uses data from the China 2005 1% Population Inter-census Survey. Instead of a consistent increase in age homogamy, as expected, results show an inverted U-shaped trend. One plausible explanation is that intensified economic pressure, rising consumerism, and a shrinking gender gap in education during the post-1990s reform era have acted to increase women's desire to marry men who are more economically established, and thus usually older, than less financially secure men. We argue that age hypergamy maintains status hypergamy, a deeply rooted norm for couples in China. An auxiliary analysis based on the human capital model for earnings supports this interpretation. A continued trend in age hypergamy implies a future “marriage squeeze” for men of low socioeconomic status. PMID:24468440

More than just the mean: moving to a dynamic view of performance-based compensation.

PubMed

Barnes, Christopher M; Reb, Jochen; Ang, Dionysius

2012-05-01

Compensation decisions have important consequences for employees and organizations and affect factors such as retention, motivation, and recruitment. Past research has primarily focused on mean performance as a predictor of compensation, promoting the implicit assumption that alternative aspects of dynamic performance are not relevant. To address this gap in the literature, we examined the influence of dynamic performance characteristics on compensation decisions in the National Basketball Association (NBA). We predicted that, in addition to performance mean, performance trend and variability would also affect compensation decisions. Results revealed that performance mean and trend, but not variability, were significantly and positively related to changes in compensation levels of NBA players. Moreover, trend (but not mean or variability) predicted compensation when controlling for future performance, suggesting that organizations overweighted trend in their compensation decisions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

Trend Analysis of Betel Nut-associated Oral Cancer 
and Health Burden in China.

PubMed

Hu, Yan Jia; Chen, Jie; Zhong, Wai Sheng; Ling, Tian You; Jian, Xin Chun; Lu, Ruo Huang; Tang, Zhan Gui; Tao, Lin

To forecast the future trend of betel nut-associated oral cancer and the resulting burden on health based on historical oral cancer patient data in Hunan province, China. Oral cancer patient data in five hospitals in Changsha (the capital city of Hunan province) were collected for the past 12 years. Three methods were used to analyse the data; Microsoft Excel Forecast Sheet, Excel Trendline, and the Logistic growth model. A combination of these three methods was used to forecast the future trend of betel nut-associated oral cancer and the resulting burden on health. Betel nut-associated oral cancer cases have been increasing rapidly in the past 12  years in Changsha. As of 2016, betel nuts had caused 8,222 cases of oral cancer in Changsha and close to 25,000 cases in Hunan, resulting in about ¥5 billion in accumulated financial loss. The combined trend analysis predicts that by 2030, betel nuts will cause more than 100,000 cases of oral cancer in Changsha and more than 300,000 cases in Hunan, and more than ¥64 billion in accumulated financial loss in medical expenses. The trend analysis of oral cancer patient data predicts that the growing betel nut industry in Hunan province will cause a humanitarian catastrophe with massive loss of human life and national resources. To prevent this catastrophe, China should ban betel nuts and provide early oral cancer screening for betel nut consumers as soon as possible.

Transmission control unit drive based on the AUTOSAR standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiucai; Qin, Zhen

2018-03-01

It is a trend of automotive electronics industry in the future that automotive electronics embedded system development based on the AUTOSAR standard. AUTOSAR automotive architecture standard has proposed the transmission control unit (TCU) development architecture and designed its interfaces and configurations in detail. This essay has discussed that how to drive the TCU based on AUTOSAR standard architecture. The results show that driving the TCU with the AUTOSAR system improves reliability and shortens development cycles.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

SHRUB BATTLE: Understanding the Making of Landscape

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Depigny, Sylvain; Michelin, Yves

2007-01-01

Landscape changes in Europe's rural areas seem to generate a more visible impact. This trend raises new questions on rural management and brings about a conflict between farmers' land-use patterns and public expectations, which are often exclusively based on esthetics. The aim of the SHRUB BATTLE board game is to help tutors make future rural…

Illinois Kids Count 2001: Envisioning the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Brenda; Familia, Yahaira; Gifford, Amy; Knowlton, Gretchen; Matakis, Brian; Olson, Melissa; Owens, Tracy; Zasadny, Julie

This Kids Count report examines statewide trends in the well-being of Illinois' children. The statistical portrait is based on indicators in the areas of family, education and child care, arts and recreation, safety, health, and economic security. The indicators are: (1) percent of children living in poverty; (2) number of children enrolled in…

A School at the Center: Study II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mid-Continent Regional Educational Lab., Aurora, CO.

This report, which focuses on improving education in rural Nebraska, grew out of a 2-week teachers' institute held in Walthill, Nebraska, in June 1993. "Introduction: The Vision of Community-Based Schools and the Future of Rural Places" (Toni Haas, Paul Nachtigal) examines current civic and social trends in rural communities and the role…

California's Demographic Future. A Rand Note.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Kevin F.; Valdez, R. Burciaga

California's image as the Golden State is based largely on its rapid population and economic growth. However, recent trends show an aging population, a decline in population growth, a reduction in the number of migrants from other states, and a dramatic increase in foreign-born residents. Since 1960, the state's growth rate has slowed…

Our Shared Future: Social Media, Leadership, Vulnerability, and Digital Identity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoller, Eric

2013-01-01

Social media have challenged us in our journey to support our students. Administrators have entered into new web-based conversations with one another and with their students. Personal branding has created a sense of performativity that conflicts with a growing trend towards online vulnerability. Our leaders have increasingly been engaged in…

Research in the Service of America's Children: Annual Report, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scarupa, Harriet J.

Child Trends is a organization with the overarching mission of improving the lives of children and families by providing research-based information to inform policy and programs that affect children's lives and their future prospects. This annual report details the organization's accomplishments for the year 2001. The report begins with a letter…

Professional Counseling in Kenya: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okech, Jane E. Atieno; Kimemia, Muthoni

2012-01-01

The authors examine the history and development of the counseling profession in Kenya. This profession is deeply rooted in responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the emergence of mental health needs created by the impact of political and community-based violence, increasing student unrest in public institutions, and government efforts to provide…

Collection Directions: The Evolution of Library Collections and Collecting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dempsey, Lorcan; Malpas, Constance; Lavoie, Brian

2014-01-01

This article takes a broad view of the evolution of collecting behaviors in a network environment and suggests some future directions based on various simple models. The authors look at the changing dynamics of print collections, at the greater engagement with research and learning behaviors, and at trends in scholarly communication. The goal is…

Opportunities for cellulose nanomaterials in packaging films: a review and future trends

Treesearch

Nicole M. Stark

2016-01-01

Performance requirements for packaging films may include barrier properties, transparency, flexibility, and tensile strength. Conventional packaging materials such as plastic films and laminates, are typically made from petroleum-based polymers. Currently, there is a drive to develop sustainable packaging materials. These alternative materials must be able to be...

A Brief History of Service-Learning Internship Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corey, John F., Ed.

1972-01-01

Recent educational conferences indicate not only that community-based experiential learning has grown dramatically in recent years as a curricular feature of higher education, but also that this empirical learning style is to be a major trend in the immediate academic future of the nation. The State of North Carolina has, since 1969, supported…

Inclusive Leadership Development: Drawing From Pedagogies of Women's and General Leadership Development Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sugiyama, Keimei; Cavanagh, Kevin V.; van Esch, Chantal; Bilimoria, Diana; Brown, Cara

2016-01-01

Trends in extant literature suggest that more relational and identity-based leadership approaches are necessary for leadership that can harness the benefits of the diverse and globalized workforces of today and the future. In this study, we compared general leadership development programs (GLDPs) and women's leadership development programs (WLDPs)…

Reaching Out, But In Which Direction? The Future Focus of Academic Outreach Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Roberto

1997-01-01

A new trend in academic outreach programs, initiated to inspire and motivate minority students to prepare generally for college, is to create curriculum-based programs targeting students' specific academic or career interests. The MESA (Mathematics, Science, Engineering Achievement) Program serves as a model for development of other…

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DOE may increase the rate of purchases if prices fall below recent price trends or futures markets... accordance with the FAR and the DEAR. (b) Acquisition strategy. (1) DOE solicitations: (i) May be either... availability of ships, pipelines and terminals to move and receive the oil. (3) Based on the market analysis...

Raising Our Children's Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doucette-Dudman, Deborah; LaCure, Jeffrey R.

There are 3.2 million children in the United States living with their grandparents or other kin, a 40 percent increase since 1980. This exploding sociological trend with far-reaching implications for our future spans every segment of our society--rich and poor, black and white, Asian and Hispanic, urban and suburban. Based on interviews with…

Guidelines for a More Reality Based Teacher Preparation Program for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cherniack, Mark; And Others

1974-01-01

It is important to consider the following trends when planning inservice and preservice programs: (a) multiple crisis potential (food, energy, environment, water, war and peace issues, etc.); (b) declining birth rate resulting in smaller numbers of humans in traditional school-age brackets; and (c) increasing demand for continuing education.…

REVIEW ARTICLE: Sensors for automotive telematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, J. D.; Austin, L.

2000-02-01

This article reviews the current practice in sensors and sensor applications for automotive and traffic-control systems. Sensors to control engine fuelling, ignition and transmission (known as the powertrain) are reviewed and the likely course of future development is discussed in the light of regulatory and market requirements as well as trends in sensor design and manufacture. Sensor needs for suspension, braking and control of traction are also reviewed and the likely introduction of wheel and tyre sensors to enhance driving safety is discussed. The recent trend towards vehicle-mounted devices to sense the vehicle's environment (such as radar, optical, ultrasound, capacitive and image-based systems) and the implications of the introduction of safety-critical automotive systems such as adaptive cruise control are discussed. Sensors for initiating the deployment of safety systems such as airbags, together with transducers for disconnecting fuel pumps and vehicle batteries in the event of a crash, are reviewed. The paper includes a brief discussion of highway-based sensors for measuring vehicle speed and presence and concludes with a discussion of the likely future developments in the field.

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Aeroelasticity at the NASA Langley Research Center Recent progress, new challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, P. W.

1985-01-01

Recent progress in aeroelasticity, particularly at the NASA Langley Research Center is reviewed to look at the questions answered and questions raised, and to attempt to define appropriate research emphasis needed in the near future and beyond. The paper is focused primarily on the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Program because Langley is the lead NASA center for aerospace structures research, and essentially is the only one working in depth in the area of aeroelasticity. Historical trends in aeroelasticity are reviewed broadly in terms of technology and staffing particularly at the LaRC. Then, selected studies of the Loads and Aeroelasticity Division at LaRC and others over the past three years are presented with attention paid to unresolved questions. Finally, based on the results of these studies and on perceptions of design trends and aircraft operational requirements, future research needs in aeroelasticity are discussed.

Novel trends in engineered milk products.

PubMed

Chandrapala, Jayani; Zisu, Bogdan

2016-08-01

Food engineering within the dairy sector is an ever developing field of study purely based on the application of engineering principles and concepts to any aspect of dairy product manufacturing and operations. The last 25 years of science and technology devoted to milk and milk products have led to major advances. The purpose of this paper is to review the history and current status of some engineered milk products and to speculate regarding future trends. Much of the advancement has been directed towards production capacity, mechanisation, automation, hygiene within the processing plant, safety, extensions in shelf life, and new product introductions that bring variety and convenience for the consumer. Significant advancements in product quality have been made, many of these arising from improved knowledge of the functional properties of ingredients and their impact on structure and texture. In addition, further improvements focused on energy efficiency and environmental sustainability have been made and will be needed in the future.

Renewable Electricity in the United States: The National Research Council Study and Recent Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, K. John; Papay, Lawrence T.

2011-11-01

The National Research Council issued Electricity from Renewables: Status, Prospects, and Impediments in 2009 as part of the America's Energy Future Study. The panel that authored this report, the Panel on Electricity from Renewable Sources, worked from 2007 to 2009 gathering information and analysis on the cost, performance and impacts of renewable electricity resources and technologies in the United States. The panel considered the magnitude and distribution of the resource base, the status of renewable electricity technologies, the economics of these technologies, their environmental footprint, and the issues related to scaling up renewables deployment. In its consideration of the future potential for renewable electricity, the panel emphasizes policy, technology, and capital equally because greatly scaling up renewable electricity encounters significant issues that go beyond resource availability or technical capabilities. Here we provide a summary of this report and discuss several recent trends that impact renewable electricity.

Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael

2018-06-01

Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.

Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.

PubMed

Mathers, Colin D; Loncar, Dejan

2006-11-01

Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

PubMed Central

Mathers, Colin D; Loncar, Dejan

2006-01-01

Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries. PMID:17132052

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.

Topics in Chemical Instrumentation: An Introduction to Supercritical Fluid Chromatography--Part 2. Applications and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmieri, Margo D.

1989-01-01

Discussed are selected application and future trends in supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). The greatest application for SFC involves those analytes that are difficult to separate using GC or LC methods. Optimum conditions for SFC are examined. Provided are several example chromatograms. (MVL)

Health Policy and the Economy: Guessing about the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helms, Robert B.

1989-01-01

This paper looks at demographic and financial trends that can have an effect on the health care sector, the government reliance on projections of budget expenditures and the current budget deficit, and trends in health care expenditures and effects on the future of Social Security and Medicare. (MLW)

Libraries and the Chief Information Officer: Implications and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodsworth, Anne

1988-01-01

Describes the roles and responsibilities of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) in research universities and presents five models of the position. Future trends and needs for management of converging information technologies are then discussed with attention to implications for libraries. Qualifications of the CIO and the future outlook of the…

Future Trends in the Kinesiology Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knudson, Duane

2016-01-01

Kinesiology emerged from its preventative medicine and education roots to establish itself as a recognized field of inquiry with numerous sub-disciplines. This article presents four trends in modern science that will likely influence the future of kinesiology sciences. Will recent increases in greater scientific specialization be overcome by the…

The Future of e-Learning in Medical Education: Current Trend and Future Opportunity

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

A wide range of e-learning modalities are widely integrated in medical education. However, some of the key questions related to the role of e-learning remain unanswered, such as (1) what is an effective approach to integrating technology into pre-clinical vs. clinical training?; (2) what evidence exists regarding the type and format of e-learning technology suitable for medical specialties and clinical settings?; (3) which design features are known to be effective in designing on-line patient simulation cases, tutorials, or clinical exams?; and (4) what guidelines exist for determining an appropriate blend of instructional strategies, including on-line learning, face-to-face instruction, and performance-based skill practices? Based on the existing literature and a variety of e-learning examples of synchronous learning tools and simulation technology, this paper addresses the following three questions: (1) what is the current trend of e-learning in medical education?; (2) what do we know about the effective use of e-learning?; and (3) what is the role of e-learning in facilitating newly emerging competency-based training? As e-learning continues to be widely integrated in training future physicians, it is critical that our efforts in conducting evaluative studies should target specific e-learning features that can best mediate intended learning goals and objectives. Without an evolving knowledge base on how best to design e-learning applications, the gap between what we know about technology use and how we deploy e-learning in training settings will continue to widen. PMID:19223995

Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

PubMed Central

Carbajo, Aníbal E; Vera, Carolina; González, Paula LM

2009-01-01

Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively. PMID:19607707

An inferential and descriptive statistical examination of the relationship between cumulative work metrics and injury in Major League Baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Karakolis, Thomas; Bhan, Shivam; Crotin, Ryan L

2013-08-01

In Major League Baseball (MLB), games pitched, total innings pitched, total pitches thrown, innings pitched per game, and pitches thrown per game are used to measure cumulative work. Often, pitchers are allocated limits, based on pitches thrown per game and total innings pitched in a season, in an attempt to prevent future injuries. To date, the efficacy in predicting injuries from these cumulative work metrics remains in question. It was hypothesized that the cumulative work metrics would be a significant predictor for future injury in MLB pitchers. Correlations between cumulative work for pitchers during 2002-07 and injury days in the following seasons were examined using regression analyses to test this hypothesis. Each metric was then "binned" into smaller cohorts to examine trends in the associated risk of injury for each cohort. During the study time period, 27% of pitchers were injured after a season in which they pitched. Although some interesting trends were noticed during the binning process, based on the regression analyses, it was found that no cumulative work metric was a significant predictor for future injury. It was concluded that management of a pitcher's playing schedule based on these cumulative work metrics alone could not be an effective means of preventing injury. These findings indicate that an integrated approach to injury prevention is required. This approach will likely involve advanced cumulative work metrics and biomechanical assessment.

Recent trends in analytical procedures in forensic toxicology.

PubMed

Van Bocxlaer, Jan F

2005-12-01

Forensic toxicology is a very demanding discipline,heavily dependent on good analytical techniques. That is why new trends appear continuously. In the past years. LC-MS has revolutionized target compound analysis and has become the trend, also in toxicology. In LC-MS screening analysis, things are less straightforward and several approaches exist. One promising approach based on accurate LC-MSTOF mass measurements and elemental formula based library searches is discussed. This way of screening has already proven its applicability but at the same time it became obvious that a single accurate mass measurement lacks some specificity when using large compound libraries. CE too is a reemerging approach. The increasingly polar and ionic molecules encountered make it a worthwhile addition to e.g. LC, as illustrated for the analysis of GHB. A third recent trend is the use of MALDI mass spectrometry for small molecules. It is promising for its ease-of-use and high throughput. Unfortunately, re-ports of disappointment but also accomplishment, e.g. the quantitative analysis of LSD as discussed here, alternate, and it remains to be seen whether MALDI really will establish itself. Indeed, not all new trends will prove themselves but the mere fact that many appear in the world of analytical toxicology nowadays is, in itself, encouraging for the future of (forensic) toxicology.

Estimation of Future Return Levels for Heavy Rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula: Comparison of Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parey, S.

2014-12-01

F. J. Acero1, S. Parey2, T.T.H. Hoang2, D. Dacunha-Castelle31Dpto. Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas s/n, 06006, Badajoz 2EDF/R&D, 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France 3Laboratoire de Mathématiques, Université Paris 11, Orsay, France Trends can already be detected in daily rainfall amount in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and this will have an impact on the extreme levels. In this study, we compare different ways to estimate future return levels for heavy rainfall, based on the statistical extreme value theory. Both Peaks over Threshold (POT) and block maxima with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution will be used and their results compared when linear trends are assumed in the parameters: threshold and scale parameter for POT and location and scale parameter for GEV. But rainfall over the IP is a special variable in that a large number of the values are 0. Thus, the impact of taking this into account is discussed too. Another approach is then tested, based on the evolutions of the mean and variance obtained from the time series of rainy days only, and of the number of rainy days. A statistical test, similar to that designed for temperature in Parey et al. 2013, is used to assess if the trends in extremes can be considered as mostly due to these evolutions when considering only rainy days. The results show that it is mainly the case: the extremes of the residuals, after removing the trends in mean and standard deviation, cannot be differentiated from those of a stationary process. Thus, the future return levels can be estimated from the stationary return level of these residuals and an estimation of the future mean and standard deviation. Moreover, an estimation of the future number of rainy days is used to retrieve the return levels for all days. All of these comparisons are made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series observed in the Iberian Peninsula over the period 1961-2010, from which we want to estimate a 20-year return level expected in 2020. The evolutions and the impact of the different approaches will be discussed for 3 seasons: fall, spring and winter. Parey S., Hoang T.T.H., Dacunha-Castelle D.: The importance of mean and variance in predicting changes in temperature extremes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, 1-12, 2013.

Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2010-01-01

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; Donohue, Amy; Davis, Robert G.

The article discusses trends in classroom design and then transitions to a discussion of the future of the classroom and how the lighting industry needs to be preparing to meet the needs of the future classroom. The OSU Classroom building as an example throughout, first discussing how trends in classroom design were incorporated into the Classroom Building and then discussing how future lighting systems could enhance the Classroom Building, which is a clear departure from the actual lighting design and current technology.

Putting oxygen and temperature thresholds of marine animals in context of environmental change in coastal seas: a regional perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brennan, Catherine E.; Blanchard, Hannah; Fennel, Katja

2014-05-01

We surveyed the literature in order to compile reported oxygen, temperature, salinity and depth preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Scotian Shelf regions of the northwest North Atlantic. We determined species importance based on the existence of a commercial fishery, a threatened or at risk status, or by meeting the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, and predators and prey of the above species. Using the dataset compiled for the 53 regional fishes and macroinvertebrates, we rank species (including for different lifestages) by their maximum thermal limit, as well as by the lowest oxygen concentration tolerated before negative impacts (e.g. physiological stress), 50% mortality or 100% mortality are experienced. Additionally, we compare these thresholds to observed marine deoxygenation trends at multiple sites, and observed surface warming trends. This results in an assessment of which regional species are most vulnerable to future warming and oxygen depletion, and a first-order estimate of the consequences of thermal and oxygen stress on a highly productive marine shelf. If regional multi-decadal oxygen and temperature trends continue through the 21st century, many species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen. Future warming can additionally displace vulnerable species, though we note that large natural variability in environmental conditions may amplify or dampen the effects of anthropogenic surface warming trends. This dataset may be combined with regional ocean model predictions to map future species distributions.

Some Future Software Engineering Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehm, Barry

This paper provides an update and extension of a 2006 paper, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes,” Systems Engineering, Spring 2006. Some of its challenges and opportunities are similar, such as the need to simultaneously achieve high levels of both agility and assurance. Others have emerged as increasingly important, such as the challenges of dealing with ultralarge volumes of data, with multicore chips, and with software as a service. The paper is organized around eight relatively surprise-free trends and two “wild cards” whose trends and implications are harder to foresee. The eight surprise-free trends are:

Red blood cell use in Switzerland: trends and demographic challenges

PubMed Central

Volken, Thomas; Buser, Andreas; Castelli, Damiano; Fontana, Stefano; Frey, Beat M.; Rüsges-Wolter, Ilka; Sarraj, Amira; Sigle, Jörg; Thierbach, Jutta; Weingand, Tina; Taleghani, Behrouz Mansouri

2018-01-01

Background Several studies have raised concerns that future demand for blood products may not be met. The ageing of the general population and the fact that a large proportion of blood products is transfused to elderly patients has been identified as an important driver of blood shortages. The aim of this study was to collect, for the first time, nationally representative data regarding blood donors and transfusion recipients in order to predict the future evolution of blood donations and red blood cell (RBC) use in Switzerland between 2014 and 2035. Materials and methods Blood donor and transfusion recipient data, subdivided by the subjects’ age and gender were obtained from Regional Blood Services and nine large, acute-care hospitals in various regions of Switzerland. Generalised additive regression models and time-series models with exponential smoothing were employed to estimate trends of whole blood donations and RBC transfusions. Results The trend models employed suggested that RBC demand could equal supply by 2018 and could eventually cause an increasing shortfall of up to 77,000 RBC units by 2035. Discussion Our study highlights the need for continuous monitoring of trends of blood donations and blood transfusions in order to take proactive measures aimed at preventing blood shortages in Switzerland. Measures should be taken to improve donor retention in order to prevent a further erosion of the blood donor base. PMID:27723455

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

2016-12-01

With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

Future Trends in Education Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newitt, Jane, Ed.

These essays deal explicitly with the future of the public schools and implicitly with the problem of making responsible predictions. Following an introduction by Herman Kahn, the first two essays deal with the social and social policy context of the schools. B. Bruce-Briggs contrasts alternative long-term and current cultural trends. Jane Newitt,…

Two Views of Criminology and Criminal Justice: Definitions, Trends, and the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conrad, John P.; Myren, Richard A.

The question of whether criminology and criminal justice are distinct fields is addressed in two papers. Differences between criminology and criminal justice are delineated by emphasizing formal definitions of the field(s), occupational roles, contemporary educational trends, and future development. According to John P. Conrad, criminology is the…

Analysis of blocking probability for OFDM-based variable bandwidth optical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lei; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongli; Lin, Xuefeng; Wu, Yuyao; Gu, Wanyi

2011-12-01

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) has recently been proposed as a modulation technique. For optical networks, because of its good spectral efficiency, flexibility, and tolerance to impairments, optical OFDM is much more flexible compared to traditional WDM systems, enabling elastic bandwidth transmissions, and optical networking is the future trend of development. In OFDM-based optical network the research of blocking rate has very important significance for network assessment. Current research for WDM network is basically based on a fixed bandwidth, in order to accommodate the future business and the fast-changing development of optical network, our study is based on variable bandwidth OFDM-based optical networks. We apply the mathematical analysis and theoretical derivation, based on the existing theory and algorithms, research blocking probability of the variable bandwidth of optical network, and then we will build a model for blocking probability.

The Enrollment Crisis: Factors, Actors, and Impacts. AAHE-ERIC/Higher Education Research Report No. 3, 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldridge, J. Victor; And Others

The impact of demographic shifts and enrollment declines for higher education are examined, and possible institutional responses to these problems are studied. After a review of the national statistics and projections of future enrollment trends, attention is directed to the campus level and the dimensions of current enrollment problems. Based on…

The Education of the Film-Maker: An International View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France).

This book presents a world view of trends, needs, and potentials concerning the education of film and television directors, who are perceived as image makers who play a central role in the present and future sociocultural development of all societies. Work is based on the papers and discussions of a 1972 meeting, organized by UNESCO, on the…

Organizing the Baby Boomer Construct: An Exploration of Marketing, Social Systems, and Culture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lipschultz, Jeremy H.; Hilt, Michael L.; Reilly, Hugh J.

2007-01-01

Baby boomer trends are applied in the development of a conceptual framework that offers a social systems and cultural model for future studies. While there has been considerable recent attention paid to baby boomers, the studies lack a coherent theoretical base that would allow for more advanced and continuing research. Aging baby boomers heading…

Genetic diversity trend in Indian rice varieties: an analysis using SSR markers.

PubMed

Singh, Nivedita; Choudhury, Debjani Roy; Tiwari, Gunjan; Singh, Amit Kumar; Kumar, Sundeep; Srinivasan, Kalyani; Tyagi, R K; Sharma, A D; Singh, N K; Singh, Rakesh

2016-09-05

The knowledge of the extent and pattern of diversity in the crop species is a prerequisite for any crop improvement as it helps breeders in deciding suitable breeding strategies for their future improvement. Rice is the main staple crop in India with the large number of varieties released every year. Studies based on the small set of rice genotypes have reported a loss in genetic diversity especially after green revolution. However, a detailed study of the trend of diversity in Indian rice varieties is lacking. SSR markers have proven to be a marker of choice for studying the genetic diversity. Therefore, the present study was undertaken with the aim to characterize and assess trends of genetic diversity in a large set of Indian rice varieties (released between 1940-2013), conserved in the National Gene Bank of India using SSR markers. A set of 729 Indian rice varieties were genotyped using 36 HvSSR markers to assess the genetic diversity and genetic relationship. A total of 112 alleles was amplified with an average of 3.11 alleles per locus with mean Polymorphic Information Content (PIC) value of 0.29. Cluster analysis grouped these varieties into two clusters whereas the model based population structure divided them into three populations. AMOVA study based on hierarchical cluster and model based approach showed 3 % and 11 % variation between the populations, respectively. Decadal analysis for gene diversity and PIC showed increasing trend from 1940 to 2005, thereafter values for both the parameters showed decreasing trend between years 2006-2013. In contrast to this, allele number demonstrated increasing trend in these varieties released and notified between1940 to 1985, it remained nearly constant during 1986 to 2005 and again showed an increasing trend. Our results demonstrated that the Indian rice varieties harbors huge amount of genetic diversity. However, the trait based improvement program in the last decades forced breeders to rely on few parents, which resulted in loss of gene diversity during 2006 to 2013. The present study indicates the need for broadening the genetic base of Indian rice varieties through the use of diverse parents in the current breeding program.

Past, Current, and Future Incidence Rates and Burden of Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States.

PubMed

Kelly, Scott P; Anderson, William F; Rosenberg, Philip S; Cook, Michael B

2017-11-18

Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed. To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends. We derived incidence data for men aged ≥45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015-2025, using age-period-cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012-2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012. Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations-a pattern that was magnified among men aged ≤69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45-54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55-69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012. The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ≤69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination. In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Active optics as enabling technology for future large missions: current developments for astronomy and Earth observation at ESA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallibert, Pascal

2017-09-01

In recent years, a trend for higher resolution has increased the entrance apertures of future optical payloads for both Astronomy and Earth Observation most demanding applications, resulting in new opto-mechanical challenges for future systems based on either monolithic or segmented large primary mirrors. Whether easing feasibility and schedule impact of tight manufacturing and integration constraints or correcting mission-critical in-orbit and commissioning effects, Active Optics constitutes an enabling technology for future large optical space instruments at ESA and needs to reach the necessary maturity in time for future mission selection and implementation. We present here a complete updated overview of our current R and D activities in this field, ranging from deformable space-compatible components to full correction chains including wavefront sensing as well as control and correction algorithms. We share as well our perspectives on the way-forward to technological maturity and implementation within future missions.

Large-scale educational telecommunications systems for the US: An analysis of educational needs and technological opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, R. P.; Singh, J. P.; Rothenberg, D.; Robinson, B. E.

1975-01-01

The needs to be served, the subsectors in which the system might be used, the technology employed, and the prospects for future utilization of an educational telecommunications delivery system are described and analyzed. Educational subsectors are analyzed with emphasis on the current status and trends within each subsector. Issues which affect future development, and prospects for future use of media, technology, and large-scale electronic delivery within each subsector are included. Information on technology utilization is presented. Educational telecommunications services are identified and grouped into categories: public television and radio, instructional television, computer aided instruction, computer resource sharing, and information resource sharing. Technology based services, their current utilization, and factors which affect future development are stressed. The role of communications satellites in providing these services is discussed. Efforts to analyze and estimate future utilization of large-scale educational telecommunications are summarized. Factors which affect future utilization are identified. Conclusions are presented.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, S.J.; Bisland, C.

2004-01-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

PubMed

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Stargazing: Future Trends in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shields, Jeff

2001-01-01

Describes the trends in higher education predicted and discussed at a staff retreat of the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO). Trends include an evolving role for business officers, increasing enrollment, competition, and e-learning. (EV)

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Antoni, Hector L.; Schaebitz, Frank

1995-01-01

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

CEO is a vision of the future role and position of CIO in healthcare organizations.

PubMed

Moghaddasi, Hamid; Sheikhtaheri, Abbas

2010-12-01

Literature related to chief information officer (CIO) in the developed countries during the past 20 years has been reviewed to identify the future trends of the position. The literature shows that CIO is a growing position in the healthcare industry that has achieved much popularity because today's healthcare has a great focus on information management and technology and that CIO can be future powerful strategist for healthcare organizations. Therefore, a model for an ideal healthcare CIO based on lesson learned from literature was suggested. It seems that in the developed countries, CIOs will achieve many opportunities to come in the highest executive teams of healthcare organizations and may undertake CEO roles.

Urbanization Causes Increased Cloud Base Height and Decreased Fog in Coastal Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Schwartz, Rachel E.; Iacobellis, Sam; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Still, Christopher J.; Husak, Gregory; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

Subtropical marine stratus clouds regulate coastal and global climate, but future trends in these clouds are uncertain. In coastal Southern California (CSCA), interannual variations in summer stratus cloud occurrence are spatially coherent across 24 airfields and dictated by positive relationships with stability above the marine boundary layer (MBL) and MBL height. Trends, however, have been spatially variable since records began in the mid-1900s due to differences in nighttime warming. Among CSCA airfields, differences in nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, are strongly and positively related to fraction of nearby urban cover, consistent with an urban heat island effect. Nighttime warming raises the near-surface dew point depression, which lifts the altitude of condensation and cloud base height, thereby reducing fog frequency. Continued urban warming, rising cloud base heights, and associated effects on energy and water balance would profoundly impact ecological and human systems in highly populated and ecologically diverse CSCA.

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

The Present State and Future Trends of Blended Learning in Workplace Learning Settings across Five Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyong-Jee; Bonk, Curtis; Teng, Ya-Ting

2009-01-01

This article reports survey findings related to the current status and future trends of blended learning in workplace learning settings from diverse cultures. This particular survey was conducted of 674 training and human resource development professionals from five different countries, mostly from the Asia-Pacific region (i.e., China, South…

Future Directions of Management Science and Operations Management in Business School Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Jack A.; Denton, James W.

2006-01-01

The fields of Management Science (MS) and Operations Management (OM) have co-existed in business school curricula for over a half century. This paper examines five trends that point toward a bright future for Operations Management in the business curriculum. These trends include an increasing emphasis on global competition, the growth of the…

A Look at the Future from the College Union and Activities Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benedict, Joseph H., Jr.

1984-01-01

Future societal trends and implications for the college union and student activities profession are considered. Ten major trends identified by John Naisbitt in his recent book "Megatrends" are used as focal points. Attention is directed to shifts from: an industrial society to an information society; forced technology to high tech/high touch; a…

Counseling in Malaysia: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

See, Ching Mey; Ng, Kok-Mun

2010-01-01

This article presents an overview of the history of counseling in Malaysia, provides an update of its current status, and discusses some anticipated future trends for the profession in light of recent developments in the country. Counseling in Malaysia began with school guidance in the 1960s and has now achieved recognition as a profession in…

Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilliam, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

Anticipating cascading change in forests: Seeking a deeper understanding of the future

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Mike Dockry; Stephen R. Shifley

2017-01-01

This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify and evaluate the direct and higher-order implications of this trend: Central Hardwood forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old. Five 1st-order consequences of this trend were identified: continued significant decrease in early-successional forest,...

Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sampson, Michael J.

2017-01-01

This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

2015-11-01

This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from varied continents and countries in the future.

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

PubMed Central

Pimm, Stuart L.; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Smith, Sharon J.

2016-01-01

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems. PMID:27462984

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

PubMed

Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

2016-01-01

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

A review of contrast pattern based data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Shiwei; Ju, Meilong; Yu, Junfeng; Cai, Binlei; Wang, Aiping

2015-07-01

Contrast pattern based data mining is concerned with the mining of patterns and models that contrast two or more datasets. Contrast patterns can describe similarities or differences between the datasets. They represent strong contrast knowledge and have been shown to be very successful for constructing accurate and robust clusters and classifiers. The increasing use of contrast pattern data mining has initiated a great deal of research and development attempts in the field of data mining. A comprehensive revision on the existing contrast pattern based data mining research is given in this paper. They are generally categorized into background and representation, definitions and mining algorithms, contrast pattern based classification, clustering, and other applications, the research trends in future. The primary of this paper is to server as a glossary for interested researchers to have an overall picture on the current contrast based data mining development and identify their potential research direction to future investigation.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Present situation and trend of precision guidance technology and its intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Zhengguo; Liu, Tiandong

2017-11-01

This paper first introduces the basic concepts of precision guidance technology and artificial intelligence technology. Then gives a brief introduction of intelligent precision guidance technology, and with the help of development of intelligent weapon based on deep learning project in foreign: LRASM missile project, TRACE project, and BLADE project, this paper gives an overview of the current foreign precision guidance technology. Finally, the future development trend of intelligent precision guidance technology is summarized, mainly concentrated in the multi objectives, intelligent classification, weak target detection and recognition, intelligent between complex environment intelligent jamming and multi-source, multi missile cooperative fighting and other aspects.

The renewal of humanism in European psychotherapy: developments and applications.

PubMed

Längle, Alfried A; Kriz, Jürgen

2012-12-01

In Europe, humanistic psychotherapy is becoming increasingly widespread. Not only are the explicitly "humanistic" psychotherapies being robustly used, they are increasingly being integrated into approaches not traditionally viewed as humanistic. One can therefore observe a progression in the personalization of methodology within European modes of practice. In the past several decades, humanistic psychology has inspired the expanding use of existential-phenomenological modes of practice. This theoretical base, coupled with recent trends in person-centered systems theory, points toward an invigorating future for humanistic forms of practice in Europe, despite the political trends toward psychotherapeutic practice in Germany. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Recent Trends in Imaging Use in Hospital Settings: Implications for Future Planning.

PubMed

Levin, David C; Parker, Laurence; Rao, Vijay M

2017-03-01

To compare trends in utilization rates of imaging in the three hospital-based settings where imaging is conducted. The nationwide Medicare Part B databases for 2004-2014 were used. All discretionary noninvasive diagnostic imaging (NDI) CPT codes were selected and grouped by modality. Procedure volumes of each code were available from the databases and converted to utilization rates per 1,000 Medicare enrollees. Medicare's place-of-service codes were used to identify imaging examinations done in hospital inpatients, hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs), and emergency departments (EDs). Trends were observed over the life of the study. Trendlines were strongly affected by code bundling in echocardiography in 2009, nuclear imaging in 2010, and CT in 2011. However, even aside from these artifactual effects, important trends could be discerned. Inpatient imaging utilization rates of all modalities are trending downward. In HOPDs, the utilization rate of conventional radiographic examinations (CREs) is declining but rates of CT, MRI, echocardiography, and noncardiac ultrasound (US) are increasing. In EDs, utilization rates of CREs, CT, and US are increasing. In the 3 years after 2011, when no further code bundling occurred, the total inpatient NDI utilization rate dropped 15%, whereas the rate in EDs increased 12% and that in HOPDs increased 1%. The trends in utilization of NDI in the three hospital-based settings where imaging occurs are distinctly different. Radiologists and others who are involved in deciding what kinds of equipment to purchase and where to locate it should be cognizant of these trends in making their decisions. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

Advanced Choice Employment (ACE) factors influencing PGY-1 workplace selection and future career intentions of a cohort of doctors in Waikato.

PubMed

Clark, Helen; de Beer, Wayne; Gibbons, Veronique

2017-01-27

To assess whether or not a sample of PGY-1 doctors in the Waikato region remained satisfied with the ACE system for employment 12 years after its inception. An anonymous paper-based survey was completed by a cohort (n=60) of 2015 and 2016 PGY-1 doctors based at the Waikato DHB. Questions were based around reasons for selecting the DHB, satisfaction with the ACE process and future career intentions. Overall satisfaction with the ACE selection process was reasonable (63%). Over 60% of the 2015 and 2016 cohorts chose Waikato as their first choice DHB, and of those, over 90% intended to carry on through to at least PGY2 level at the DHB. An overwhelming majority (93-96%) intended to continue practicing in New Zealand. Consistent trends were observed across the two cohorts in regards to their reasons for selecting the DHB, satisfaction with ACE and future intentions, with some differences observed with familial background and interest in pursuing hospital-based specialties. Our findings suggest that ACE remains a satisfactory recruiting system for postgraduate junior doctors, however, motives around initial DHB selection and future vocational intentions remain unclear and warrant further investigation.

Experimental and Theoretical Study of the Temperature Performance of Type-II Quantum Well Lasers

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-31

performance of type-II Interband Cascade (IC) GaSb-based semiconductor lasers has been developed. The method includes comparing the temperature-concentration... dependence at the laser threshold with steady-state carrier heating characteristics. The number of cascades in prototype type-II IC lasers has been...Monroy, and R.L.Tober, "Wavelength Tuning of Interband Cascade Laser Based on the Stark Effect", in “Future Trends in Microelectronics” ed. by

What Tomorrow May Bring: Trends in Technology and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molebash, Philip E.

This paper analyzes trends in technology and how they relate to education and then extrapolates these trends in order to predict the future of technology and education. The paper examines how the trends of Moore's Law, the graphical user interface, telecommunications/networks and Metcalfe's Law, the Internet and the World Wide Web, technology…

Unusual trend in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in mothers aged 35 and older: A population based study of national congenital anomaly data.

PubMed

Nair, Deepa Balachandran; Tucker, David; Hughes, Rhian; Greenacre, Judith; Morgan, Margery

2015-07-01

Trisomy 13 is one of the three autosomal trisomies compatible with viability. It is associated with structural anomalies, learning disability and poor survival. Advanced maternal age is the most frequently suggested risk factor. This is a population based register study to investigate the temporal trends of trisomy 13. Chromosomal trisomies were reviewed by the Welsh Congenital Anomaly Register using data from 1998-2012. All pregnancy outcomes were included. Prevalence rates and trends for all cases and for cases with mothers aged below 35 years and those aged 35 years and older were plotted for trisomy 13, 18 and 21. Possible risk factors contributing to the trend in older mothers were compared in the early and late period of the study. There were 124 cases of trisomy 13 over the 15 year period with 55 mothers aged 35 years and older. Overall prevalence was 2.5 per 10,000 total births. A significant declining trend in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in mothers aged 35 and older (χ(2) trend = 4.98, p=0.026) was noted. Rates for younger mothers were lower and remained stable. Prevalence of trisomy 18 and 21 in older mothers remained stable. The unexpected declining trend in trisomy 13 in older mothers could not be explained by the risk factors examined in this study. There have been no other reports of trends in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in older mothers in recent years. There is further need for surveillance of trends in future and in other populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Current trends in community-based clinical teaching programs in U.K.and Ireland dental schools.

PubMed

Lynch, Christopher D; Ash, Peter J; Chadwick, Barbara L

2013-05-01

Community-based clinical teaching/outreach programs using a variety of approaches have been established in many predoctoral dental schools around the world. The aim of this article is to report current trends in the teaching of community-based clinical teaching/outreach teaching in dental schools in the United Kingdom and Ireland. In late 2010-early 2011, a questionnaire was distributed by e-mail to deans of the eighteen established dental schools in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The questionnaire included both open and closed questions relating to current and anticipated trends in community-based clinical teaching. Fourteen responses were received (response rate=78 percent). All fourteen responding schools reported inclusion of a community-based clinical teaching program. Ten schools indicated that their program was based on total patient (comprehensive) care including the treatment of child patients. In nine schools, the program is directed by a senior clinical academic in restorative dentistry. As well as student dentists, ten schools and seven schools include teaching of student dental therapists and student dental hygienists, respectively. There is a varied experience within the schools surveyed in terms of the extent, nature, and content of these programs. Overall, however, community-based clinical teaching was seen as part of the future of dental school education in many schools as an ideal way of preparing graduates for Dental Foundation Training and subsequent independent practice.

Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.

PubMed

Black, Bryan A; Sydeman, William J; Frank, David C; Griffin, Daniel; Stahle, David W; García-Reyes, Marisol; Rykaczewski, Ryan R; Bograd, Steven J; Peterson, William T

2014-09-19

Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the United States: Strategies for Monitoring Trends and Results from the First Two Decades of Study: 1991-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, B.; McMahon, P.; Rupert, M.; Tesoriero, J.; Starn, J.; Anning, D.; Green, C.

2012-04-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program was implemented in 1991 to provide long-term, consistent, and comparable information on the quality of surface and groundwater resources of the United States. Findings are used to support national, regional, state, and local information needs with respect to water quality. The three main goals of the program are to 1) assess the condition of the nation's streams, rivers, groundwater, and aquatic systems; 2) assess how conditions are changing over time; and 3) determine how natural features and human activities affect these conditions, and where those effects are most pronounced. As data collection progressed into the second decade, the emphasis of the interpretation of the data has shifted from primarily understanding status, to evaluation of trends. The program has conducted national and regional evaluations of change in the quality of water in streams, rivers, groundwater, and health of aquatic systems. Evaluating trends in environmental systems requires complex analytical and statistical methods, and a periodic re-evaluation of the monitoring methods used to collect these data. Examples given herein summarize the lessons learned from the evaluation of changes in water quality during the past two decades with an emphasis on the finding with respect to groundwater. The analysis of trends in groundwater is based on 56 well networks located in 22 principal aquifers of the United States. Analysis has focused on 3 approaches: 1) a statistical analysis of results of sampling over various time scales, 2) studies of factors affecting trends in groundwater quality, and 3) use of models to simulate groundwater trends and forecast future trends. Data collection for analysis of changes in groundwater-quality has focused on decadal resampling of wells. Understanding the trends in groundwater quality and the factors affecting those trends has been conducted using quarterly sampling, biennial sampling, and more recently continuous monitoring of selected parameters in a small number of wells. Models such as MODFLOW have been used for simulation and forecasting of future trends. Important outcomes from the groundwater-trends studies include issues involving statistics, sampling frequency, changes in laboratory analytical methods over time, the need for groundwater age-dating information, the value of understanding geochemical conditions and contaminant degradation, the need to understand groundwater-surface water interaction, and the value of modeling in understanding trends and forecasting potential future conditions. Statistically significant increases in chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations were found in a large number of well networks over the first decadal sampling period. Statistically significant decreases of chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations were found in a very small number of networks. Trends in surface-water are analyzed within 8 large major river basins within the United States with a focus on issues of regional importance. Examples of regional surface-water issues include an analysis of trends in dissolved solids in the Southeastern United States, trends in pesticides in the north-central United States, and trends in nitrate in the Mississippi River Basin. Evaluations of ecological indicators of water quality include temporal changes in stream habitat, and aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblages.

The future of diabetes education: expanded opportunities and roles for diabetes educators.

PubMed

Martin, Annette Lenzi; Lipman, Ruth D

2013-01-01

The purpose of the article is to explore challenges and opportunities associated with the state of practice for diabetes education and diabetes educators. Observations, assumptions, predictions, and recommendations based on a literature review and the 2011 workforce study and workforce summit held by the American Association of Diabetes Educators (AADE) are presented. Demand for diabetes educators is projected to increase. The employer base will broaden beyond traditional outpatient venues and extend into industry, retail pharmacy clinics, and community-based organizations. Increasing roles in management, quality assurance, and technology interface design are possible for diabetes educators. Challenges limiting diabetes education such as poor understanding of what diabetes educators do and underutilization of diabetes education continue to need redress. Increasing utilization of diabetes education and insight about health care trends can allow diabetes educators to thrive in the workplace of the future. Diabetes educators are urged to promote the evidence concerning the benefits of diabetes education, to work to increase physician referrals, and to acquire needed competencies for the workplace of the future.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

The Future of School Library Media Centers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craver, Kathleen W.

1984-01-01

Examines impact of technology on school library media program development and role of school librarian. Technological trends (computerized record keeping, computer-assisted instruction, networking, home computers, videodiscs), employment and economic trends, education of school librarians, social and behavioral trends, and organizational and…

Using Dynamic Geometry and Computer Algebra Systems in Problem Based Courses for Future Engineers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tomiczková, Svetlana; Lávicka, Miroslav

2015-01-01

It is a modern trend today when formulating the curriculum of a geometric course at the technical universities to start from a real-life problem originated in technical praxis and subsequently to define which geometric theories and which skills are necessary for its solving. Nowadays, interactive and dynamic geometry software plays a more and more…

Teen Births: A County-By-County Factbook. For Children for Ohio's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Susan

This Factbook provides state- and county-level statistical information on teen births in Ohio and discusses statewide trends from 1992 to 1996. The statistical portrait is based on 12 indicators: (1) number of infants born to teens; (2) teen birth rate; (3) repeat teen birth rate; (4) percentage of teen births to unmarried teens; (5) percentage of…

Measures of Child Well-Being in Utah, 2003: Counting on a Better Future for Utah's Kids.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haven, Terry, Ed.

This Kids Count report examines statewide trends in the well-being of Utah's children. The statistical portrait is based on 28 indicators of children's well-being in five areas: (1) child health (prenatal care, low birth-weight births, infant mortality, child injury deaths, injury-related hospital discharges, child abuse, childhood immunizations,…

All Kids Count! Assessing the Well-Being of African-American, American Indian, Asian, and Latino Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kids Count Minnesota, Minneapolis.

This Kids Count data book examines trends in the well-being of Minnesota's African-American, American Indian, Asian, and Latino children. The statistical portrait is based on 22 indicators of child well-being: (1) attitudes about race; (2) housing patterns; (3) future plans; (4) social involvement; (5) park usage; (6) negative treatment; (7) bias…

The Big Squeeze on Tax Revenues for the Public Schools: The Midwest in the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geske, Terry G.

Potential revenue prospects for the public schools in the Midwest basically depend on the future outlook for the midwestern economy as a whole. Accordingly, a comprehensive analysis is undertaken of the midwestern economy and tax base, and then of trends in educational spending. Topics include: (1) economic growth and taxation systems; (2)…

[Risk management for medical devices].

PubMed

Xie, Ying-jie; Xu, Xing-gang

2007-07-01

Based on the practices of the risk management activities by Chinese medical device manufacturers and theoretical study of the latest international standard ISO 14971:2007, this article analyses the risk management in medical device manufacturing industry by introducing the status quo of applications, four requirements at operational stages, and future trends of development. Methods and suggestions are therefore given to medical device manufacturers for risk management.

Does Machine-Readable Documentation on Online Hosts and CD-ROMs Have a Role or Future?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Stephen; Oppenheim, Charles

1996-01-01

Reports results of a United Kingdom-based mail survey of database users, CD-ROM producers, and hosts to assess trends and views concerning documentation in machine-readable form. Cost, convenience, and ease of use of print manuals are cited as reasons for the reluctance to switch to machine-readable documentation. Sample surveys are included.…

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

The impacts of emission trends of POPs on human concentration dynamics: Lessons learned from a longitudinal study in Norway (1979-2007).

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Breivik, Knut

2017-06-01

In this short communication, our focus is on the relationship between human concentrations of select persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental emissions. It is based on a longitudinal study (1979-2007) conducted in Norway. Our aim was to extract general insights from observed and predicted temporal trends in human concentrations of 49 POPs to assist in the design and interpretation of future monitoring studies. Despite considerable decline for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) since 1986, the sum of the targeted POPs increased from 1979 until 2001, with per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) dominating recent blood burden measurements. Specifically, the time trends in serum concentrations of POPs, exemplified by PCB-153, 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl)bis(4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), resembled the trends in available data on their emissions, production or use. These observations suggest that interpretations of human biomonitoring data on persistent compounds must consider historic emissions, which likely vary spatially across the globe. Based on the different temporal trends observed across POP groups, it is evident that generalizations regarding temporal aspects have limitations. The discussion herein underscores the importance of understanding temporal variations in environmental emissions when designing and interpreting human biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Space-based observations of nitrogen dioxide: Trends in anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Ashley Ray

Space-based instruments provide routine global observations, offering a unique perspective on the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric constituents. In this dissertation, trends in regional-scale anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions (NO + NO2 ≡ NOx) are investigated using high resolution observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). By comparing trends in OMI observations with those from ground-based measurements and an emissions inventory, I show that satellite observations are well-suited for capturing changes in emissions over time. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the observations provide a uniquely complete view of regional-scale changes in the spatial patterns of NO 2. I show that NOx concentrations have decreased significantly in urban regions of the United States between 2005 and 2011, with an average reduction of 32 ± 7%. By examining day-of-week and interannual trends, I show that these reductions can largely be attributed to improved emission control technology in the mobile source fleet; however, I also show that the economic downturn of the late 2000's has impacted emissions. Additionally, I describe the development of a high-resolution retrieval of NO2 from OMI observations known as the Berkeley High Resolution (BEHR) retrieval. The BEHR product uses higher spatial and temporal resolution terrain and profile parameters than the operational retrievals and is shown to provide a more quantitative measure of tropospheric NO2 column density. These results have important implications for future retrievals of NO2 from space-based observations.

Trends in hospital librarianship and hospital library services: 1989 to 2006.

PubMed

Thibodeau, Patricia L; Funk, Carla J

2009-10-01

The research studied the status of hospital librarians and library services to better inform the Medical Library Association's advocacy activities. The Vital Pathways Survey Subcommittee of the Task Force on Vital Pathways for Hospital Librarians distributed a web-based survey to hospital librarians and academic health sciences library directors. The survey results were compared to data collected in a 1989 survey of hospital libraries by the American Hospital Association in order to identify any trends in hospital libraries, roles of librarians, and library services. A web-based hospital library report form based on the survey questions was also developed to more quickly identify changes in the status of hospital libraries on an ongoing basis. The greatest change in library services between 1989 and 2005/06 was in the area of access to information, with 40% more of the respondents providing access to commercial online services, 100% more providing access to Internet resources, and 28% more providing training in database searching and use of information resources. Twenty-nine percent (n = 587) of the 2005/06 respondents reported a decrease in staff over the last 5 years. Survey data support reported trends of consolidation of hospitals and hospital libraries and additions of new services. These services have likely required librarians to acquire new skills. It is hoped that future surveys will be undertaken to continue to study these trends.

Trends in hospital librarianship and hospital library services: 1989 to 2006

PubMed Central

Thibodeau, Patricia L.; Funk, Carla J.

2009-01-01

Objective: The research studied the status of hospital librarians and library services to better inform the Medical Library Association's advocacy activities. Methods: The Vital Pathways Survey Subcommittee of the Task Force on Vital Pathways for Hospital Librarians distributed a web-based survey to hospital librarians and academic health sciences library directors. The survey results were compared to data collected in a 1989 survey of hospital libraries by the American Hospital Association in order to identify any trends in hospital libraries, roles of librarians, and library services. A web-based hospital library report form based on the survey questions was also developed to more quickly identify changes in the status of hospital libraries on an ongoing basis. Results: The greatest change in library services between 1989 and 2005/06 was in the area of access to information, with 40% more of the respondents providing access to commercial online services, 100% more providing access to Internet resources, and 28% more providing training in database searching and use of information resources. Twenty-nine percent (n = 587) of the 2005/06 respondents reported a decrease in staff over the last 5 years. Conclusions: Survey data support reported trends of consolidation of hospitals and hospital libraries and additions of new services. These services have likely required librarians to acquire new skills. It is hoped that future surveys will be undertaken to continue to study these trends. PMID:19851491

Using cancer registries to assess the accuracy of primary liver or intrahepatic bile duct cancer as the underlying cause of death, 1999-2010.

PubMed

Polednak, Anthony P

2013-01-01

Inaccuracies in primary liver cancer (ie, excluding intrahepatic bile duct [IHBD]) or IHBD cancer as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate vs the cancer site in a cancer registry should be considered in surveillance of mortality rates in the population. Concordance between cancer site on the death record (1999-2010) and diagnosis (1973-2010) in the database for 9 cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program was examined for decedents with only 1 cancer recorded. Overreporting of deaths coded to liver cancer (ie, lack of confirmation in SEER) was largely balanced by underreporting (ie, a cancer site other than liver cancer in SEER). For IHBD cancer, overreporting was much more frequent than underreporting. Using modified rates, based on the most accurate numerators available, had little impact on trends for liver cancer in the SEER population, which were similar to trends for the entire US population based on routine statistics. An increase in the death rate for IHBD cancer, however, was no longer evident after modification. The findings support the use of routine data on underlying cause of death for surveillance of trends in death rates for liver cancer but not for IHBD cancer. Additional population-based cancer registries could potentially be used for surveillance of recent and future trends in mortality rates from these cancers.

Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems’ response to global climate change. China’s ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China’s terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change. PMID:23593325

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

The Skills and Training Needed by Farm Management Researchers in the Future: Discussion. Economics Staff Paper 93-4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Douglas R.

In view of continuing trends in farming and the trend toward increasing farm diversification and specialization, the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges and individual researchers have proposed their own lists of the skills that will be needed by farm management researchers in the future. Because farm management…

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This booklet presents an overview of the findings pertaining to eighth, tenth, and twelfth grade students from the 1999 Monitoring the Future Study. This overview focuses on recent trends in the use of various licit and illicit drugs. It also examines trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug, which…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2006. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 67

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2007-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2006: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2007. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 69

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2008-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2007: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2000. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 53.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2000: Volume 1: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender,…

Twenty years of multidisciplinary research and practice: the Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation then and now.

PubMed

Shaw, William S; Findley, Patricia A; Feuerstein, Michael

2011-12-01

Early research of work disability in the 1980s showed a complexity of factors influencing pain and health-related functional limitation at work; hence, multidisciplinary perspectives were necessary to understand the complex interplay between biomechanical, organizational, social, and psychological factors impacting work disability. To address this need, the Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation was founded in 1991 with the goal of providing a scientific, yet practical forum for presenting multidisciplinary research and practice in work disability. Now, the 20-year collection of articles in the Journal reflects important trends and directions in the field of occupational rehabilitation. We conducted a retrospective summary of the past 20 years of the Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation, including its inaugural goals and intent, rates of submission and acceptance, trends in the types of articles published, study topics, global distribution of authors, and future directions. The original goal of providing a multidisciplinary scientific and practical forum has been met, but current trends reflect a maturing scientific evidence base, with less representation of employer-based case studies and practical innovations. There has been a dramatic increase in the international representation of studies, authors, and peer reviewers outside of the US. Also, published studies now address work disability for a larger number of health concerns. Contributions to the Journal continue to reflect a multidisciplinary perspective, but the Journal has seen significant changes with respect to international representation, the expanding study of non-musculoskeletal sources of work disability, and the maturing scientific evidence base in the field of occupational rehabilitation. Future volumes of the Journal will likely reflect continuing changes in the global economy, workforce fitness, and job demands.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

An Environmental Analysis: Issues and Trends for Planning and Assessment. Institutional Research Report No. 90-21.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, Christina E.; Prather, James E.

This report revises and updates environmental trends that affect present and future planning and assessment at Georgia State University (GSU). The purpose of this environmental analysis is to determine the major trends in the environment, the implications of these trends for higher education and for the institution, and significant opportunities…

Water quality in the Cambridge, Massachusetts, drinking-water source area, 2005-8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kirk P.; Waldron, Marcus C.

2015-01-01

During 2005-8, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Cambridge, Massachusetts, Water Department, measured concentrations of sodium and chloride, plant nutrients, commonly used pesticides, and caffeine in base-flow and stormwater samples collected from 11 tributaries in the Cambridge drinking-water source area. These data were used to characterize current water-quality conditions, to establish a baseline for future comparisons, and to describe trends in surface-water quality. The data also were used to assess the effects of watershed characteristics on surface-water quality and to inform future watershed management.

Microplastics in the marine environment: Current trends and future perspectives.

PubMed

Barboza, Luís Gabriel Antão; Gimenez, Barbara Carolina Garcia

2015-08-15

Over the last decade, the presence of microplastics on marine environments has become an important environmental concern and focus of interest of many researches. Thus, to provide a more integrated view of the research trends regarding this topic, we use a scientometric approach to systematically assess and quantify advances in knowledge related to microplastics in the marine environment. The papers that we used for our assessment were obtained from the database Thomson Reuters (ISI Web of Science), between 2004 and 2014. Our results reveal the overall research performance in the study area of microplastics present in the marine environment over the past decade as a newly developed research field. It has been recognized that there are several important issues that should be investigated. Toward that end, based on the suggested directions on all papers reviewed, we point out areas/topics of interest that may guide future work in the coming years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The voluntary community health movement in India: a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis.

PubMed

Sharma, M; Bhatia, G

1996-12-01

There has been a prolific growth of voluntary organizations in India since independence in 1947. One of the major areas of this growth has been in the field of community health. The purpose of this article is to historically trace the voluntary movement in community health in India, analyze the current status, and predict future trends of voluntary efforts. A review of the literature in the form of a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis was the method of this study. Some of the key trends which emerged as the priority areas for progress and for strengthening voluntary organizations in the future were enhancing linkages between health and development; building upon collective force; greater utilization of participatory training; establishing egalitarian and effectual linkages for decision making at the international level; developing self-reliant community-based models; and the need for attaining holistic empowerment at individual, organizational, and community levels through "duty consciousness" as opposed to merely asking for rights.

A Hybrid Satellite-Terrestrial Approach to Aeronautical Communication Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerczewski, Robert J.; Chomos, Gerald J.; Griner, James H.; Mainger, Steven W.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Kachmar, Brian A.

2000-01-01

Rapid growth in air travel has been projected to continue for the foreseeable future. To maintain a safe and efficient national and global aviation system, significant advances in communications systems supporting aviation are required. Satellites will increasingly play a critical role in the aeronautical communications network. At the same time, current ground-based communications links, primarily very high frequency (VHF), will continue to be employed due to cost advantages and legacy issues. Hence a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network, or group of networks, will emerge. The increased complexity of future aeronautical communications networks dictates that system-level modeling be employed to obtain an optimal system fulfilling a majority of user needs. The NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating the current and potential future state of aeronautical communications, and is developing a simulation and modeling program to research future communications architectures for national and global aeronautical needs. This paper describes the primary requirements, the current infrastructure, and emerging trends of aeronautical communications, including a growing role for satellite communications. The need for a hybrid communications system architecture approach including both satellite and ground-based communications links is explained. Future aeronautical communication network topologies and key issues in simulation and modeling of future aeronautical communications systems are described.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

PubMed Central

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

PubMed

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

POP emission inventories on different scales and their future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theloke, Jochen; Breivik, Knut; Denier van der Gon, Hugo; Kugler, Ulrike; Li, Yi-Fan; Pacyna, Jozef; Panasiuk, Damian; Sundseth, Kyrre; Sweetman, Andy; Tao, Shu

2010-05-01

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are defined as organic substances that possess toxic characteristics; are persistent; bioaccumulate; are prone to long-range transboundary atmospheric transport and deposition; and are likely to cause significant adverse human health or environmental effects near to and distant from their sources. To reduce these adverse effects and for monitoring the effectiveness of existing international agreements, esp. UNECE-POP and UNEP protocols, concerning POPs the compilation of emission inventories is required. This presentation addresses emission inventories for POPs which are covered by existing protocols as well as candidate substances which are in focus for the revision of the international protocols. The following substances will be taken into account in this presentation: Dioxins and Furans (PCDD/F), PAHs, PCBs, Hexachlorbenzene (HCB), Pesticides (e.g. HCH, Dicofol and Endosulfan), Perfluoroctansulfonate (PFOS) and Polybrominated Diphenylethers (PBDEs), Hexachlorobutadiene (HCBD), Pentachlorobenzene (PeCB), Polychlorinated Naphthalenes (PCN), and Pentachlorophenols (PCPs). For all considered substances emission inventories exist with different qualities, from preliminary estimates to more complete inventories. These inventories are based on different methodologies (measurements, modelling, mass balance approaches, etc.), cover different regions (Europe, North America, Asia, China) and different spatial scales (regional, global) with different spatial resolutions. An overview will be given of the current state of the knowledge through a description of the main sources for the specific pollutants, the recent emission levels, a description of historical emission (incl. time series) and gridded data bases, if available. Furthermore, recommendations to improve POP emission inventories as well as major obstacles to achieve these improvements will be given. A further focus of this presentation will be an overview of future trends of specific POPs, e. g. PCB and PCDD/F until 2050, with special emphasis on the different approaches for compilation of future scenarios for specific substances. The following key questions concerning compilation of projections will be considered here: Do we have sufficient data on emissions and the trends in driving forces needed for making reasonable future projections? How might emission quantities and spatial distributions change over the next 20 to 50 years? How will different source categories change?

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

Computational Fragment-Based Drug Design: Current Trends, Strategies, and Applications.

PubMed

Bian, Yuemin; Xie, Xiang-Qun Sean

2018-04-09

Fragment-based drug design (FBDD) has become an effective methodology for drug development for decades. Successful applications of this strategy brought both opportunities and challenges to the field of Pharmaceutical Science. Recent progress in the computational fragment-based drug design provide an additional approach for future research in a time- and labor-efficient manner. Combining multiple in silico methodologies, computational FBDD possesses flexibilities on fragment library selection, protein model generation, and fragments/compounds docking mode prediction. These characteristics provide computational FBDD superiority in designing novel and potential compounds for a certain target. The purpose of this review is to discuss the latest advances, ranging from commonly used strategies to novel concepts and technologies in computational fragment-based drug design. Particularly, in this review, specifications and advantages are compared between experimental and computational FBDD, and additionally, limitations and future prospective are discussed and emphasized.

Will the NP workforce grow in the future? New forecasts and implications for healthcare delivery.

PubMed

Auerbach, David I

2012-07-01

The nurse practitioner (NP) workforce has been a focus of considerable policy interest recently, particularly as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act may place additional demands on the healthcare professional workforce. The NP workforce has been growing rapidly in recent years, but fluctuation in enrollments in the past decades has resulted in a wide range of forecasts. To forecast the future NP workforce using a novel method that has been applied to the registered nurse and physician workforces and is robust to fluctuating enrollment trends. An age-cohort regression-based model was applied to the current and historical workforce, which was then forecasted to future years assuming stable age effects and a continuation of recent cohort trends. A total of 6798 NPs who were identified as having completed NP training in the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses between 1992 and 2008. The future workforce is projected to grow to 244,000 in 2025, an increase of 94% from 128,000 in 2008. If NPs are defined more restrictively as those who self-identify their position title as "NP," supply is projected to grow from 86,000 to 198,000 (130%) over this period. The large projected increase in NP supply is higher and more grounded than other forecasts and has several implications: NPs will likely fulfill a substantial amount of future demand for care. Furthermore, as the ratio of NPs to Nurse Practitioners to physicians will surely grow, there could be implications for quality of care and for the configuration of future care delivery systems.

Design of a Digital-Based, Multicomponent Nutrition Guidance System for Prevention of Early Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Black, Maureen M.; Saavedra, Jose M.

2016-01-01

Interventions targeting parenting focused modifiable factors to prevent obesity and promote healthy growth in the first 1000 days of life are needed. Scale-up of interventions to global populations is necessary to reverse trends in weight status among infants and toddlers, and large scale dissemination will require understanding of effective strategies. Utilizing nutrition education theories, this paper describes the design of a digital-based nutrition guidance system targeted to first-time mothers to prevent obesity during the first two years. The multicomponent system consists of scientifically substantiated content, tools, and telephone-based professional support delivered in an anticipatory and sequential manner via the internet, email, and text messages, focusing on educational modules addressing the modifiable factors associated with childhood obesity. Digital delivery formats leverage consumer media trends and provide the opportunity for scale-up, unavailable to previous interventions reliant on resource heavy clinic and home-based counseling. Designed initially for use in the United States, this system's core features are applicable to all contexts and constitute an approach fostering healthy growth, not just obesity prevention. The multicomponent features, combined with a global concern for optimal growth and positive trends in mobile internet use, represent this system's future potential to affect change in nutrition practice in developing countries. PMID:27635257

Status of Postdoctoral Dental Education: Clinical Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weaver, Richard G.; And Others

1995-01-01

An analysis of the state of postdoctoral clinical dental training looks at current enrollment level and trends, trends in faculty positions and demand for them, student characteristics, student objectives in pursuing postdoctoral education, trends in specialty and general practice, and implications for future postdoctoral general dentistry…

Forecast of jet engine exhaust emissions for future high altitude commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J.; Ingebo, R. D.

1974-01-01

Projected minimum levels of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are presented. The forecasts are based on: (1) current knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) the current status of combustion research in emission reduction technology; (3) predictable trends in combustion systems and operating conditions as required for projected engine designs that are candidates for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Results are presented for cruise conditions in terms of an emission index, g pollutant/kg fuel. Two sets of engine exhaust emission predictions are presented: the first, based on an independent NASA study and the second, based on the consensus of an ad hoc committee composed of industry, university, and government representatives. The consensus forecasts are in general agreement with the NASA forecasts.

Forecast of jet engine exhaust emissions for future high altitude commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J.; Ingebo, R. D.

1974-01-01

Projected minimum levels of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are presented. The forecasts are based on: (1) current knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) the current status of combustion research in emission reduction technology; and (3) predictable trends in combustion systems and operating conditions as required for projected engine designs that are candidates for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Results are presented for cruise conditions in terms of an emission index, g pollutant/kg fuel. Two sets of engine exhaust emission predictions are presented: the first, based on an independent NASA study and the second, based on the consensus of an ad hoc committee composed of industry, university, and government representatives. The consensus forecasts are in general agreement with the NASA forecasts.

An overview of computer-based natural language processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1983-01-01

Computer based Natural Language Processing (NLP) is the key to enabling humans and their computer based creations to interact with machines in natural language (like English, Japanese, German, etc., in contrast to formal computer languages). The doors that such an achievement can open have made this a major research area in Artificial Intelligence and Computational Linguistics. Commercial natural language interfaces to computers have recently entered the market and future looks bright for other applications as well. This report reviews the basic approaches to such systems, the techniques utilized, applications, the state of the art of the technology, issues and research requirements, the major participants and finally, future trends and expectations. It is anticipated that this report will prove useful to engineering and research managers, potential users, and others who will be affected by this field as it unfolds.

Papers Based Electrochemical Biosensors: From Test Strips to Paper-Based Microfluidics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Bingwen; Du, Dan; Hua, Xin

2014-05-08

Papers based biosensors such as lateral flow test strips and paper-based microfluidic devices (or paperfluidics) are inexpensive, rapid, flexible, and easy-to-use analytical tools. An apparent trend in their detection is to interpret sensing results from qualitative assessment to quantitative determination. Electrochemical detection plays an important role in quantification. This review focuses on electrochemical (EC) detection enabled biosensors. The first part provides detailed examples in paper test strips. The second part gives an overview of paperfluidics engaging EC detections. The outlook and recommendation of future directions of EC enabled biosensors are discussed in the end.

Helicopter aeroelastic stability and response - Current topics and future trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedmann, Peretz P.

1990-01-01

This paper presents several current topics in rotary wing aeroelasticity and concludes by attempting to anticipate future trends and developments. These topics are: (1) the role of geometric nonlinearities; (2) structural modeling, and aeroelastic analysis of composite rotor blades; (3) aeroelastic stability and response in forward flight; (4) modeling of coupled rotor/fuselage aeromechanical problems and their active control; and (5) the coupled rotor-fuselage vibration problem and its alleviation by higher harmonic control. Selected results illustrating the fundamental aspects of these topics are presented. Future developments are briefly discussed.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

PubMed Central

Maniscalco, John M.; Springer, Alan M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Parker, Pamela

2015-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality. PMID:26488901

The future of postgraduate training.

PubMed

Walsh, Kieran

2014-01-01

Improvements to postgraduate training have included newly designed postgraduate curricula, new forms of delivery of learning, more valid and reliable assessments, and more rigorous evaluation of training programmes. All these changes have been necessary and have now started to settle in. Now therefore is an appropriate time to look to the future of postgraduate training. Predicting the future is difficult in any course of life-however an examination of recent trends is often a good place to start. In this regard the recent trend to start to produce more doctors and healthcare professionals of the type that the population needs is likely to continue for some time to come. Medical education will also need to be more flexible in the future. The more flexible that training programmes are, the more likely that we will have experts that are sufficiently flexible to meet a range of different challenges throughout the rest of their careers. Medical education will also become more seamless in the future (at present there are probably too many major milestones and transitions in medical education). In the future educators will make much more use of technology enhanced learning, e-learning and simulation in postgraduate medical education. There will also be more pressure on postgraduate training programmes to offer value for money and to be able to demonstrate such value for money. Postgraduate medical education of the future will also be a more personalised and adaptive experience. It will be far more based on learners' individual needs and will be more responsive to those needs. Lastly postgraduate education will be much more closely supervised than it has been in the past. A common theme running through these changes will be patient centredness. This will mean safer training programmes that produce the type of doctors that patients and populations need.

Current status and future trends in turbine application of thermal barrier coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffler, Keith D.; Gupta, Dinesh K.

1988-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the current status and future trends in application of thermal barrier coatings (TBC) to turbine components, and in particular to high turbine airfoils. Included are descriptions of the favorable results achieved to date with bill-of-material applications of plasma deposited TBC, and recent experience with developmental coatings applied by electron beam-physical vapor deposition.

Critical Trends and Events Affecting the Future of Community Colleges: Proceedings of a Beyond 2000 Preconference Workshop (Orlando, Florida, February 26-28, 1995).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

The Beyond 2000 workshop held in February 1995 was designed to give participants experience in using strategic management techniques, such as critical trend and potential event identification, to examine the future of community colleges. This paper is intended as a guide for implementing similar workshops and summarizes the outcomes of workshop…

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2001 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has…

Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use. Overview of Key Findings, 2002.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor. Inst. for Social Research.

This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2002 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has…

Survey of the State-of-the-Art and Likely Future Trends of University Management in Europe: Austria-Germany-the Netherlands.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bender, Ignaz; Henning, Wolfgang

The management of universities in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands was studied as part of a 1979 survey of the present and future trends of university management in Europe. The survey addressed the organization of the university and its administration, the structure and process of decision-making, and the opinions of students, teachers, and…

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Using Analogue Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faybishenko, B.

2005-12-01

Net infiltration is a key hydrologic parameter that, throughout the unsaturated zone, controls the rate of deep percolation, the groundwater recharge, radionuclide transport, and seepage into underground tunnels. Because net infiltration is largely affected by climatic conditions, future changes in climatic conditions will potentially alter net infiltration. The objectives of this presentation are to: (1) Present a conceptual model and a semi-empirical approach for regional climatic forecasting of net infiltration, based on precipitation and temperature data from analogue meteorological stations; and (2) Demonstrate the results of forecasting net infiltration for future climates - interglacial, monsoon and glacial - over the Yucca Mountain region for a period of 500,000 years. Calculations of net infiltration were performed using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, and potential evapotranspiration was evaluated from the temperature-based Thornthwaite formula. (Both Budyko's and Thornthwaite's formulae have been used broadly in hydrological studies.) The results of these calculations were used for ranking net infiltration, along with aridity and precipitation-effectiveness (P-E) indices, for future climatic scenarios. Using this approach, we determined a general trend of increasing net infiltration from the present-day (interglacial) climate to the monsoon, intermediate (glacial transition) climate, a trend that continued into the glacial climate time frame. The ranking of aridity and P-E indices is practically the same as that for net infiltration. Validation of the computed net infiltration rates yielded a good match with other field and modeling study results related to groundwater recharge and net infiltration evaluation.

Lifelong education for older adults in Malta: Current trends and future visions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formosa, Marvin

2012-04-01

With European demographic developments causing a decline of the available workforce in the foreseeable future and the unsustainability of dominant pay-as-you-go pension systems (where contributions from the current workforce sustain pensioners), governments need to come up with strategies to deal with this upcoming challenge and to adjust their policies. Based on a study carried out between September 2009 and May 2010, this article evaluates the policies guiding late-life education in Malta, as well as the local plethora of learning opportunities for older adult education, and participation rates. The Maltese government is committed to supporting the inclusion of older persons (aged 60+) in lifelong education policies and programmes, to the extent that local studies have uncovered a recent rise in the overall participation of older adults in formal, non-formal and informal areas of learning. While the present and future prospects for late-life education in Malta seem promising, a critical scrutiny of present ideologies and trends finds the field to be no more than seductive rhetoric. Though the coordination of late-life education in Malta does result in various social benefits to older learners and Maltese society in general, it also occurs within five intersecting lines of inequality - namely an economic rationale, elitism, gender bias, the urban-rural divide and third ageism. This article ends by proposing policy recommendations for the future of late-life education.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on validated MODIS NDVI.

PubMed

Liu, Shiliang; Cheng, Fangyan; Dong, Shikui; Zhao, Haidi; Hou, Xiaoyun; Wu, Xue

2017-06-23

Spatiotemporal dynamics of aboveground biomass (AGB) is a fundamental problem for grassland environmental management on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data can feasibly be used to estimate AGB at large scales, and their precise validation is necessary to utilize them effectively. In our study, the clip-harvest method was used at 64 plots in QTP grasslands to obtain actual AGB values, and a handheld hyperspectral spectrometer was used to calculate field-measured NDVI to validate MODIS NDVI. Based on the models between NDVI and AGB, AGB dynamics trends during 2000-2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the AGB in QTP grasslands increased during the study period, with 70% of the grasslands undergoing increases mainly in the Qinghai Province. Also, the meadow showed a larger increasing trend than steppe. Future AGB dynamic trends were also investigated using a combined analysis of the slope values and the Hurst exponent. The results showed high sustainability of AGB dynamics trends after the study period. Predictions indicate 60% of the steppe and meadow grasslands would continue to increase in AGB, while 25% of the grasslands would remain in degradation, with most of them distributing in Tibet.

Hospital web-site marketing: analysis, issues, and trends.

PubMed

Sanchez, P M; Maier-Donati, P

1999-01-01

As hospitals continue to incorporate web technology into their overall marketing and communications strategies, they face several issues which we explore in this paper. Hospitals' effectiveness in dealing with these issues will affect the benefits received from this technology. We provide an exploratory analysis of current hospital web sites and develop implications for future web site development. Likewise, recommendations based on our research are also provided.

Projected freshwater withdrawals in the United States under a changing climate

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez

2013-01-01

Relying on the U.S. Geological Survey water use data for the period 1960 2005, this paper summarizes past water use and then projects future water use based on the trends in water use efficiency and major drivers of water use. Water use efficiency has improved in most sectors. Over the past 45 years, withdrawals in industry and at thermoelectric plants have steadily...

Overview of Issues and Notes for Discussion. Intergovernmental Conference on Policies for Higher Education in the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

Based on the 1981 conference on policies for higher education of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, recent trends in higher education and prospects for the future are considered, along with approaches to guide the development of policies during the decade. The chief areas of concern are as follows: access to higher…

Rice yield in response to climate trends and drought index in the Mun River Basin, Thailand.

PubMed

Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Maskey, Shreedhar; Suryadi, F X; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2018-04-15

Rice yields in Thailand are among the lowest in Asia. In northeast Thailand where about 90% of rice cultivation is rain-fed, climate variability and change affect rice yields. Understanding climate characteristics and their impacts on the rice yield is important for establishing proper adaptation and mitigation measures to enhance productivity. In this paper, we investigate climatic conditions of the past 30years (1984-2013) and assess the impacts of the recent climate trends on rice yields in the Mun River Basin in northeast Thailand. We also analyze the relationship between rice yield and a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), and the impact of SPEI trends on the yield. Our results indicate that the total yield losses due to past climate trends are rather low, in the range of <50kg/ha per decade (3% of actual average yields). In general, increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures lead to modest yield losses. In contrast, precipitation and SPEI-1, i.e. SPEI based on one monthly data, show positive correlations with yields in all months, except in the wettest month (September). If increasing trends of temperatures during the growing season persist, a likely climate change scenario, there is high possibility that the yield losses will become more serious in future. In this paper, we show that the drought index SPEI-1 detects soil moisture deficiency and crop stress in rice better than precipitation or precipitation based indicators. Further, our results emphasize the importance of spatial and temporal resolutions in detecting climate trends and impacts on yields. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An In Depth Look at Lightning Trends in Hurricane Harvey using Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringhausen, J.

2017-12-01

This research combines satellite measurements of lightning in Hurricane Harvey with ground-based lightning measurements to get a better sense of the total lightning occurring in the hurricane, both intra-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG), and how it relates to the intensification and weakening of the tropical system. Past studies have looked at lightning trends in hurricanes using the space based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) or ground-based lightning detection networks. However, both of these methods have drawbacks. For instance, LIS was in low earth orbit, which limited lightning observations to 90 seconds for a particular point on the ground; hence, continuous lightning coverage of a hurricane was not possible. Ground-based networks can have a decreased detection efficiency, particularly for ICs, over oceans where hurricanes generally intensify. With the launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite, researchers can study total lightning continuously over the lifetime of a tropical cyclone. This study utilizes GLM to investigate total lightning activity in Hurricane Harvey temporally; this is augmented with spatial analysis relative to hurricane structure, similar to previous studies. Further, GLM and ground-based network data are combined using Bayesian techniques in a new manner to leverage the strengths of each detection method. This methodology 1) provides a more complete estimate of lightning activity and 2) enables the derivation of the IC:CG ratio (Z-ratio) throughout the time period of the study. In particular, details of the evolution of the Z-ratio in time and space are presented. In addition, lightning stroke spatiotemporal trends are compared to lightning flash trends. This research represents a new application of lightning data that can be used in future study of tropical cyclone intensification and weakening.

An Optimized Handover Scheme with Movement Trend Awareness for Body Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Wen; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Ji, Lianying; Wong, Wai-Choong

2013-01-01

When a body sensor network (BSN) that is linked to the backbone via a wireless network interface moves from one coverage zone to another, a handover is required to maintain network connectivity. This paper presents an optimized handover scheme with movement trend awareness for BSNs. The proposed scheme predicts the future position of a BSN user using the movement trend extracted from the historical position, and adjusts the handover decision accordingly. Handover initiation time is optimized when the unnecessary handover rate is estimated to meet the requirement and the outage probability is minimized. The proposed handover scheme is simulated in a BSN deployment area in a hospital environment in UK. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme reduces the outage probability by 22% as compared with the existing hysteresis-based handover scheme under the constraint of acceptable handover rate. PMID:23736852

The role of Internet resources in clinical oncology: promises and challenges.

PubMed

Hesse, Bradford W; Greenberg, Alexandra J; Rutten, Lila J Finney

2016-12-01

The Internet is a valuable tool that continues to revolutionize many aspects of our lives; however, the ability to disseminate diverse data across populations and nations presents both opportunities and challenges. Online resources are increasingly used in health care, providing wider access to information for patients, researchers, and clinicians. At the turn of the millennium, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) predicted that Internet-based technologies would create a revolution in communication for oncology professionals and patients with cancer. Herein, findings from the NCI's Health Information National Trends Survey are reviewed to give insight into how Internet trends related to oncology patients are evolving. Future trends are discussed, including examples of 'connected health' in oncology; the spread of mobile and ubiquitous access points to Internet-hosted information; the diffusion of devices, sensors, and apps; the spread of personal data sharing; and an evolution in how networks can support person-centred and family-centred care.

A Review of Wireless Sensor Technologies and Applications in Agriculture and Food Industry: State of the Art and Current Trends

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Garcia, Luis; Lunadei, Loredana; Barreiro, Pilar; Robla, Jose Ignacio

2009-01-01

The aim of the present paper is to review the technical and scientific state of the art of wireless sensor technologies and standards for wireless communications in the Agri-Food sector. These technologies are very promising in several fields such as environmental monitoring, precision agriculture, cold chain control or traceability. The paper focuses on WSN (Wireless Sensor Networks) and RFID (Radio Frequency Identification), presenting the different systems available, recent developments and examples of applications, including ZigBee based WSN and passive, semi-passive and active RFID. Future trends of wireless communications in agriculture and food industry are also discussed. PMID:22408551

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Advanced electronic displays and their potential in future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, J. J.

1981-01-01

It is pointed out that electronic displays represent one of the keys to continued integration and improvement of the effectiveness of avionic systems in future transport aircraft. An employment of modern electronic display media and generation has become vital in connection with the increases in modes and functions of modern aircraft. Requirements for electronic systems of future transports are examined, and a description is provided of the tools which are available for cockpit integration, taking into account trends in information processing and presentation, trends in integrated display devices, and trends concerning input/output devices. Developments related to display media, display generation, and I/O devices are considered, giving attention to a comparison of CRT and flat-panel display technology, advanced HUD technology and multifunction controls. Integrated display formats are discussed along with integrated systems and cockpit configurations.

Multi-Intelligence Analytics for Next Generation Analysts (MIAGA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blasch, Erik; Waltz, Ed

2016-05-01

Current analysts are inundated with large volumes of data from which extraction, exploitation, and indexing are required. A future need for next-generation analysts is an appropriate balance between machine analytics from raw data and the ability of the user to interact with information through automation. Many quantitative intelligence tools and techniques have been developed which are examined towards matching analyst opportunities with recent technical trends such as big data, access to information, and visualization. The concepts and techniques summarized are derived from discussions with real analysts, documented trends of technical developments, and methods to engage future analysts with multiintelligence services. For example, qualitative techniques should be matched against physical, cognitive, and contextual quantitative analytics for intelligence reporting. Future trends include enabling knowledge search, collaborative situational sharing, and agile support for empirical decision-making and analytical reasoning.

Trends in the location of the HIV-positive population in Australia: implications for access to healthcare services and delivery.

PubMed

Carman, Marina; Grierson, Jeffrey; Pitts, Marian; Hurley, Michael; Power, Jennifer

2010-06-01

Examining existing and potential trends in the HIV-positive population in Australia is important for current and future healthcare service development and delivery. A new analysis of existing data on this population from the HIV Futures 5 survey was based on linking a geographic breakdown of respondents based on 'area type'--capital city or inner suburban, outer suburban, regional centre and rural--with patterns of healthcare service access. In addition, the distance between the postcode of the respondent's residence and the postcode of the doctor seen for HIV-related treatment was calculated. An analysis of 'area type' by income and age was also conducted. The 'area type' analysis showed important differences in patterns of access to antiretroviral prescriptions and choice of provider for HIV-related and general healthcare. The median distance travelled to see a doctor for HIV-related treatment was higher for those living in outer suburbs than those living in regional centres. Differences in service use appear to be related to geographic accessibility of different service types. However, there may be other important social, economic and cultural factors involved. Ageing and socio-economic pressures may be influencing a move away from inner suburban areas where most HIV-specific care is located. This new analysis assists in finding the right balance between increasing the accessibility of HIV-specific services and 'mainstreaming'. Longitudinal data collection would further assist in tracking trends in geographic location, and how often and at what intervals people living with HIV utilise healthcare services.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Demographic Trends that will Shape Future Housing Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Peter A.

1977-01-01

Important demographic trends in the United States include 1) the population's changing age profile, 2) the tendency for young people to remain single longer, 3) the widening mortality differential between the sexes, and 4) reversal of migration trends. Available from: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Box 211, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,…

Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects of time trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, southeastern Colorado, 1998-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Edelmann, Patrick; Dash, Russell G.

2005-01-01

In the mid-1990s, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted rules governing measurement of tributary ground-water pumpage for the Arkansas River Basin. The rules allowed ground-water pumpage to be determined using one of two approaches?power conversion coefficient (PCC) or totalizing flowmeters (TFM). In addition, the rules allowed a PCC to be applied to the electrical power usage up to 4 years in the future to estimate ground-water pumpage. As a result of concerns about potential errors in applying the PCC approach forward in time, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with CDWR and Colorado Water Conservation Board, to evaluate the variability in differences in pumpage between the two approaches, including the effects of time trends. This report compared measured ground-water pumpage using TFMs to computed ground-water pumpage using PCCs by developing statistical models of relations between explanatory variables, such as site, time, and pumping water level, and dependent variables, which are based on discharge, PCC, and pumpage. When differences in pumpage (diffP) were computed using PCC measurements and power consumption for the same year (1998-2002), the median diffP, depending on the year, ranged from +0.1 to -2.9 percent; the median diffP for the entire period was -1.5 percent. However, when diffP was computed using PCC measurements applied to the next year's power consumption, the median diffP was -0.3 percent; and when PCC measurements were applied 2, 3, or 4 years into the future, median diffPs were +1.8 percent for a 2-year forward lag and +5.3 percent for a 4-year forward lag, indicating that pumpage computed with the PCC approach, as generally applied under the ground-water pumpage measurement rules by CDWR, tended to overestimate pumpage as compared to pumpage using TFMs when PCC measurement was applied to future years of measured power consumption. Analyses were done to better understand the causes of the time trend; an estimate of the overall trend with time (uncorrected for pumping water-level changes) yielded a trend of about 2.2 percent per lag year for diffP. A separate analysis that incorporated a surface-water diversion term in the statistical model rendered the time-trend term insignificant, indicating that the time trend in the models served as a surrogate for other variables, some of which reflect underlying hydrologic conditions. A more precise explanation of the potential causes of the time trend was not obtained with the available data. However, the model results with the surface-water diversion term indicate that much of the trend of 2.2 percent per lag year in diffP resulted from applying a PCC to estimate pumpage under hydrologic conditions different from those under which the PCC was measured. Although there is no evidence to conclude that the upward time trend determined in the data for this 5-year period would hold in the future, historical static ground-water levels in the study area generally have exhibited small variations over multidecadal time scales. Therefore, the approximately 2 percent per lag year trend determined in these data is expected to be a reasonable guideline for estimating potential errors in the PCC approach resulting from temporally varying hydrologic conditions between time of PCC measurement and pumpage estimation. Comparisons also were made between total, or aggregated, pumpage for a network of wells as computed by the PCC approach and the TFM approach. For 100 wells and a lag of 4 years between PCC measurement and pumpage estimation, there was a 95-percent probability that the difference between total network pumpage measured by the PCC approach and that measured using a TFM would be between 5.2 and 14.4 percent. These estimates were based on a bias of 2.2 percent per lag year estimated for the period 1998-2002 during which hydrologic conditions were known to have changed. Using the same assumptions, the estimated d

Meaning-based group counseling for bereavement: bridging theory with emerging trends in intervention research.

PubMed

MacKinnon, Christopher J; Smith, Nathan Grant; Henry, Melissa; Berish, Mel; Milman, Evgenia; Körner, Annett; Copeland, Laura S; Chochinov, Harvey M; Cohen, S Robin

2014-01-01

A growing body of scholarship has evaluated the usefulness of meaning-based theories in the context of bereavement counseling. Although scholars have discussed the application of meaning-based theories for individual practice, there is a lack of inquiry regarding its implications when conducting bereavement support groups. The objective of this article is to bridge meaning-based theories with bereavement group practice, leading to a novel intervention and laying the foundation for future efficacy studies. Building on recommendations specified in the literature, this article outlines the theoretical paradigms and structure of a short-term meaning-based group counseling intervention for uncomplicated bereavement.

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology

PubMed Central

DAMARI, Behzad; HAJIAN, Maryam; MINAEE, Farima; RIAZI-ISFAHANI, Sahand

2016-01-01

Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. PMID:27648424

Diet based on the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top and subsequent mortality among men and women in a general Japanese population.

PubMed

Oba, Shino; Nagata, Chisato; Nakamura, Kozue; Fujii, Kaori; Kawachi, Toshiaki; Takatsuka, Naoyoshi; Shimizu, Hiroyuki

2009-09-01

The Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top was developed by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery to promote healthful diets. Adherence to the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top was evaluated in terms of future mortality in a prospective cohort study. A prospective cohort study among men and women in a general Japanese population. The cohort consisted of 13,355 men and 15,724 women residing in Takayama, Japan, in 1992. At baseline, a food frequency questionnaire was administered, and adherence to the food guide was measured based on consuming the recommended number of servings of grains, vegetables, fish and meat, milk, and fruits, as well as total daily energy intake and energy from snacks and alcoholic beverages. Higher scores indicated better adherence to the recommendations on a scale of 0 to 70. Based on data obtained from the Office of the National Vital Statistics, deaths occurring among members of the cohort were prospectively noted from 1992 to 1999. To assess the magnitude of association of adherence scores with subsequent mortality, a Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among women, the adherence score was significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality from all causes (comparing highest and lowest quartiles of the score, HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.94, P for trend 0.01) in a multivariate analysis; noncardiovascular, noncancer causes (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.96, P for trend 0.04) and cardiovascular disease (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.04, P for trend0.05). No statistically significant association was observed between the adherence score and mortality among men. The results suggest that diets based on the food guide have the benefit of reducing future mortality in women.

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

PubMed Central

Mertz, Ole; Frolking, Steve; Egelund Christensen, Andreas; Hurni, Kaspar; Sedano, Fernando; Parsons Chini, Louise; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Hansen, Matthew; Hurtt, George

2017-01-01

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing–based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes’ dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation—the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)—this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation. PMID:28886132

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heinimann, Andreas; Mertz, Ole; Frolking, Steve

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation atmore » a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21 st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation$-$the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)$-$this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation.« less

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

DOE PAGES

Heinimann, Andreas; Mertz, Ole; Frolking, Steve; ...

2017-09-08

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation atmore » a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21 st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation$-$the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)$-$this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation.« less

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

2013-01-01

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

Projection of future runoff change using climate elasticity method derived from Budyko framework in major basins across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Zou, Shan; Deng, Chao

2018-03-01

This study established a climate elasticity method based on Budyko hypothesis and enhanced it by selecting the most effective Budyko-type formula to strengthen the runoff change prediction reliability. The spatiotemporal variations in hydrologic variables (i.e., runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation) during historical period were revealed first and the climate elasticities of runoff were investigated. The proposed climate elasticity method was also applied to project the spatiotemporal variations in future runoff and its key influencing factors in 35 watersheds across China. Wherein, the future climate series were retrieved by consulting the historical series, informed by four global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Wang-Tang equation was selected as the optimal Budyko-type equation for its best ability in reproducing the runoff change (with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of 0.998 and 1.36 mm, respectively). Observed runoff presents significant decreasing trends in the northern and increasing trends in the southern regions of China, and generally its change is identified to be more sensitive to climatic variables in Hai River Basin and lower Yellow River Basin. Compared to the runoff during the reference period, positive change rates in the north and negative change rates in the south of China in the mid-21st century can be practically generalized from the majority of GCMs projections. This maybe resulted from the increasing precipitation, especially in parts of northern basins. Meanwhile, GCMs project a consistently upward trend in potential evaporation although significant decreasing trends occur in the majority of catchments for the historical period. The results indicate that climate change will possibly bring some changes to the water resources over China in the mid-21st century and some countermeasures of water resources planning and management should be taken.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

2017-07-01

The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

Recent Progress in Bionic Condensate Microdrop Self-Propelling Surfaces.

PubMed

Gong, Xiaojing; Gao, Xuefeng; Jiang, Lei

2017-12-01

Bionic condensate microdrop self-propelling (CMDSP) surfaces are attracting increased attention as novel, low-adhesivity superhydrophobic surfaces due to their value in fundamental research and technological innovation, e.g., for enhancing heat transfer, energy-effective antifreezing, and electrostatic energy harvesting. Here, the focus is on recent progress in bionic CMDSP surfaces. Metal-based CMDSP surfaces, which are the most promising in their respective fields, are highlighted for use in future applications. The selected topics are divided into four sections: biological prototypes, mechanism and construction rules, fabrication, and applications of metal-based CMDSP surfaces. Finally, the challenges and future development trends in bionic CMDSP surfaces are envisioned, especially the utilization of potential bionic inspiration in the design of more advanced CMDSP surfaces. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Past and future drought in Mongolia.

PubMed

Hessl, Amy E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-03-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO 2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

Past and future drought in Mongolia

PubMed Central

Hessl, Amy E.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-01-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming. PMID:29546236

Online distribution channel increases article usage on Mendeley: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kudlow, Paul; Cockerill, Matthew; Toccalino, Danielle; Dziadyk, Devin Bissky; Rutledge, Alan; Shachak, Aviv; McIntyre, Roger S; Ravindran, Arun; Eysenbach, Gunther

2017-01-01

Prior research shows that article reader counts (i.e. saves) on the online reference manager, Mendeley, correlate to future citations. There are currently no evidenced-based distribution strategies that have been shown to increase article saves on Mendeley. We conducted a 4-week randomized controlled trial to examine how promotion of article links in a novel online cross-publisher distribution channel (TrendMD) affect article saves on Mendeley. Four hundred articles published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research were randomized to either the TrendMD arm ( n  = 200) or the control arm ( n  = 200) of the study. Our primary outcome compares the 4-week mean Mendeley saves of articles randomized to TrendMD versus control. Articles randomized to TrendMD showed a 77% increase in article saves on Mendeley relative to control. The difference in mean Mendeley saves for TrendMD articles versus control was 2.7, 95% CI (2.63, 2.77), and statistically significant ( p  < 0.01). There was a positive correlation between pageviews driven by TrendMD and article saves on Mendeley (Spearman's rho r  = 0.60). This is the first randomized controlled trial to show how an online cross-publisher distribution channel (TrendMD) enhances article saves on Mendeley. While replication and further study are needed, these data suggest that cross-publisher article recommendations via TrendMD may enhance citations of scholarly articles.

Black Residential Mobility; Trends and Characteristics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fairchild, Halford H.; Tucker, M. Belinda

1982-01-01

Uses a multidisciplinary approach to examine trends in Black residential mobility from slavery to the present. Focuses particularly on evolution of urban ghettos and considers present and future public policy issues. (GC)

An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

2010-10-01

Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV epidemic and trend.

Trends in Child Poverty in Sweden: Parental and Child Reports.

PubMed

Mood, Carina; Jonsson, Jan O

We use several family-based indicators of household poverty as well as child-reported economic resources and problems to unravel child poverty trends in Sweden. Our results show that absolute (bread-line) household income poverty, as well as economic deprivation, increased with the recession 1991-96, then reduced and has remained largely unchanged since 2006. Relative income poverty has however increased since the mid-1990s. When we measure child poverty by young people's own reports, we find few trends between 2000 and 2011. The material conditions appear to have improved and relative poverty has changed very little if at all, contrasting the development of household relative poverty. This contradictory pattern may be a consequence of poor parents distributing relatively more of the household income to their children in times of economic duress, but future studies should scrutinze potentially delayed negative consequences as poor children are lagging behind their non-poor peers. Our methodological conclusion is that although parental and child reports are partly substitutable, they are also complementary, and the simultaneous reporting of different measures is crucial to get a full understanding of trends in child poverty.

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Software system safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uber, James G.

1988-01-01

Software itself is not hazardous, but since software and hardware share common interfaces there is an opportunity for software to create hazards. Further, these software systems are complex, and proven methods for the design, analysis, and measurement of software safety are not yet available. Some past software failures, future NASA software trends, software engineering methods, and tools and techniques for various software safety analyses are reviewed. Recommendations to NASA are made based on this review.

Research on Green Manufacturing Innovation Based on Resource Environment Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jie, Xu

2017-11-01

Green manufacturing is a trend of manufacturing industry in the future, and is of great significance to resource protection and environmental protection. This paper first studies the green manufacturing innovation system, and then decomposes the green manufacturing innovation dimensions, and constructs the green manufacturing innovation dimension space. Finally, from the view of resource protection and environmental protection, this paper explores the path of green manufacturing innovation.

What People Will Need to Know in the 80s and Beyond to Be Intelligent Consumers and Effective Homemakers (Content for Consumer and Homemaking Education).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Elizabeth J.

This report examines matters about which people will need to be knowledgeable in the 1980s to be intelligent consumers and effective homemakers. Its assumptions are based on an examination of work in the field of home economics and related areas of future issues relative to families, publications dealing with social trends and technological…

Future transportation trends and technology.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This document was prepared as a resource for the Oregon Department of Transportation's (ODOT's) 1997 Research Strategic Planning Meeting held in November 1997. Included in the paper are relevant socioeconomic trends, including social, environmnetal, ...

Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods

DOE PAGES

Lo, Y. T. Eunice; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.; Lott, Fraser C.; ...

2016-12-15

Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. Here, we investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5 Tg yr -1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection whenmore » no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This then highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature should it be needed.« less

Primary Manufacturing Processes for Fiber Reinforced Composites: History, Development & Future Research Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapan Bhatt, Alpa; Gohil, Piyush P.; Chaudhary, Vijaykumar

2018-03-01

Composite Materials are becoming more popular gradually replacing traditional material with extra strength, lighter weight and superior property. The world is exploring use of fiber reinforced composites in all application which includes air, land and water transport, construction industry, toys, instrumentation, medicine and the list is endless. Based on application and reinforcement used, there are many ways to manufactures parts with fiber reinforced composites. In this paper various manufacturing processes have been discussed at length, to make fiber reinforced composites components. The authors have endeavored to include all the processes available recently in composite industry. Paper first highlights history of fiber reinforced composites manufacturing, and then the comparison of different manufacturing process to build composites have been discussed, to give clear understanding on, which process should be selected, based on reinforcement, matrix and application. All though, there are several advantages to use such fiber reinforcement composites, still industries have not grown at par and there is a lot of scope to improve these industries. At last, where India stands today, what are the challenges in market has been highlighted and future market and research trend of exploring such composite industries have been discussed. This work is carried out as a part of research project sanctioned by GUJCOST, Gandhinagar.

Fire Organization and Administration: Report of Futuring Group 3

Treesearch

1987-01-01

Futuring Group 3 identified 12 trends that determine the way fire administrators must plan and budget for efficient wildland/urban fire protection organizations in the future. Five key visions and associated strategies were also identified.

Energy Harvesting from Aerodynamic Instabilities: Current prospect and Future Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, M.; Rajendran, P.; Khan, S. A.

2018-01-01

This paper evaluates the layout and advancement of energy harvesting based on aerodynamic instabilities of an aircraft. Vibration and thermoelectric energy harvesters are substantiated as most suitable alternative low-power sources for aerospace applications. Furthermore, the facility associated with the aircraft applications in harvesting the mechanical vibrations and converting it to electric energy has fascinated the researchers. These devices are designed as an alternative to a battery-based solution especially for small aircrafts, wireless structural health monitoring for aircraft systems, and harvester plates employed in UAVs to enhance the endurance and operational flight missions. We will emphasize on various sources of energy harvesting that are designed to come from aerodynamic flow-induced vibrations, specific attention is then given at those technologies that may offer, today or in the near future, a potential benefit to reduce both the cost and emissions of the aviation industry. The advancements achieved in the energy harvesting based on aerodynamic instabilities show very good scope for many piezoelectric harvesters in the field of aerospace, specifically green aviation technology in the future.

Trends in high temperature gas turbine materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grisaffe, S. J.; Dreshfield, R. L.

1981-01-01

High performance - high technology materials are among the technologies that are required to allow the fruition of such improvements. Materials trends in hot section components are reviewed, and materials for future use are identified. For combustors, airfoils, and disks, a common trend of using multiple material construction to permit advances in technology is identified.

The Future at Work. An Assessment of Changing Workplace Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies, Inc., Washington, DC.

Technological and demographic changes affect the nation's employment landscape. The most consistent trend of the century has been the shrinking workweek. By the year 2000, many workers will spend only 32 hours per week at work. Other workplace changes will continue the quest for more work satisfaction: technical trends (flextime/telecommuting);…

Financing the Public Schools in the Great Lake States: Declining Revenues in the 1980s?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geske, Terry G.

1984-01-01

Analyzes data on the economic prospects of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin--including demographic and economic trends, trends in taxation systems, school revenue and expenditure trends, and future revenue prospects--and offers prognoses for individual states. Generally, short-range revenue prospects are bleak, and long-range…

Seventy-One Trends That May Affect Entrepreneur Education for Future World Markets.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cetron, Marvin

Entrepreneurship education is and will likely continue to be affected by various societal, technological, educational, labor force, management, ideological, family, and institutional trends. In the area of the economy, these trends include a rise of middle-class society, the integration of the national economy, and the integration of the national…

Understanding Climate Trends Using IR Brightness Temperature Spectra from AIRS, IASI and CrIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deslover, D. H.; Nikolla, E.; Knuteson, R. O.; Revercomb, H. E.; Tobin, D. C.

2016-12-01

NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) provides a data record that extends from its 2002 launch to the present. The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard Metop- (A launched in 2006, B in 2012), as well as the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) launched in 2011, complement this data record. Future infrared sounders with similar capabilities will augment these measurements into the near future. We have created a global data set from these infrared measurements, using the nadir-most observations for each of the aforementioned instruments. We can filter the data based upon spatial, diurnal and seasonal properties to discern trends for a given spectral channel and, therefore, a specific atmospheric layer. Subtle differences between spectral sampling among the three instruments can lead significant differences in the resultant probability distribution functions for similar spectral channels. We take advantage of the higher (0.25 cm-1) IASI spectral resolution to subsample the IASI spectra onto AIRS and CrIS spectral grids to better compare AIRS/IASI and CrIS/IASI trends in the brightness temperature anomalies. To better understand the dependance of trace gases on the measured brightness temperature spectral time-series, a companion study has utilized coincident vertical profiles of stratospheric carbon dioxide, water vapor and ozone concentration are used to infer a correlation with the CrIS brightness temperatures. The goal was to investigate the role of ozone heating and carbon dioxide cooling on the observed brightness temperature spectra. Results from that study will be presented alongside the climate trend analysis.

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2016. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 89

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; Schulenberg, John E.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.

2017-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2015. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 87

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2016-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who…

Land use in the lake states region: an analysis of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Thomas E. Mauldin; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

This paper presents the historic trends and future projections of forest, farm, and urban land uses for the Lake States of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Since the 1950s, forest and farm land have been decreasing, and urban and other land uses have been increasing throughout the Lake States. Forest, crop, and pasture land have decreased in the region by 3.2, 5.4...

Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report I. Internal Consistencies and Relationships to Performance By Site. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pecorella, Patricia A.; Bowers, David G.

Analyses preparatory to construction of a suitable file for generating a system of future performance trend indicators are described. Such a system falls into the category of a current value approach to human resources accounting. It requires that there be a substantial body of data which: (1) uses the work group or unit, not the individual, as…

Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use. Overview of Key Findings 2005. NIH Publication No. 06-5882

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2006-01-01

Results from the Monitoring the Future's 2005 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students are given in this report. Recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs are emphasized, as well as trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug. This study has shown these beliefs and attitudes to…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2014. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 85

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of and trends in the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were…

Occupational health nursing in Canada: its social foundation and future.

PubMed

Olson, D K; Stovin, D

1992-01-01

Our purpose in examining the social foundation of occupational health nursing is to better determine the future direction of the profession and its impact on a diverse workforce. Part of what makes up the profession of occupational health nursing is found in its definition: a process that is determined by the interaction between the occupational health nurse, worker, work and workplace; its goal is to assist the worker to achieve his or her optimal level of functioning, primarily through health education, health promotion, prevention of disease and injury and crisis intervention. Much of occupational health nursing is also based on its history and the traditions that have been established. A true understanding, then, of what occupational health nursing's future can be comes from a solid understanding of the history of the profession. As social trends in the past affected the profession, so will they in the future.

A State-of-the-Art Review on Soil Reinforcement Technology Using Natural Plant Fiber Materials: Past Findings, Present Trends and Future Directions.

PubMed

Gowthaman, Sivakumar; Nakashima, Kazunori; Kawasaki, Satoru

2018-04-04

Incorporating sustainable materials into geotechnical applications increases day by day due to the consideration of impacts on healthy geo-environment and future generations. The environmental issues associated with conventional synthetic materials such as cement, plastic-composites, steel and ashes necessitate alternative approaches in geotechnical engineering. Recently, natural fiber materials in place of synthetic material have gained momentum as an emulating soil-reinforcement technique in sustainable geotechnics. However, the natural fibers are innately different from such synthetic material whereas behavior of fiber-reinforced soil is influenced not only by physical-mechanical properties but also by biochemical properties. In the present review, the applicability of natural plant fibers as oriented distributed fiber-reinforced soil (ODFS) and randomly distributed fiber-reinforced soil (RDFS) are extensively discussed and emphasized the inspiration of RDFS based on the emerging trend. Review also attempts to explore the importance of biochemical composition of natural-fibers on the performance in subsoil reinforced conditions. The treatment methods which enhances the behavior and lifetime of fibers, are also presented. While outlining the current potential of fiber reinforcement technology, some key research gaps have been highlighted at their importance. Finally, the review briefly documents the future direction of the fiber reinforcement technology by associating bio-mediated technological line.

Brainstorming transformative solutions - Sustainable Puerto ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This narrative scenario depicts one of many possible futures for the island of Puerto Rico in which the goals of energy and food supply resilience have been met. Set in the year 2080, the narrative describes a series of hypothetical (but possible) events, a set of proactive governance actions and policies, and citizen responses to those events and interventions. The narrative is based on expert-opinion and extrapolation of trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development, as well as recent events in Puerto Rico. This narrative was developed as part of a futures exercise, and the outputs of a recent stakeholder and expert workshop, to inform modeling efforts underway by a coalition of researchers and local stakeholders -- an NSF-funded project entitled, Urban Resilience to Extreme Events. This narrative, which describes one of many potential energy futures for the island of Puerto Rico, uses expert opinion and extrapolation of recent trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development to describe a scenario in which Puerto Rico has achieved recently stated goals for energy and food systems resilience and sustainability. It will be used along with the outputs of a recent stakeholder workshop to inform model building. The document will be posted in the Urban Resilience to Extreme Events Research Network's blog.

A State-of-the-Art Review on Soil Reinforcement Technology Using Natural Plant Fiber Materials: Past Findings, Present Trends and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Gowthaman, Sivakumar; Nakashima, Kazunori; Kawasaki, Satoru

2018-01-01

Incorporating sustainable materials into geotechnical applications increases day by day due to the consideration of impacts on healthy geo-environment and future generations. The environmental issues associated with conventional synthetic materials such as cement, plastic-composites, steel and ashes necessitate alternative approaches in geotechnical engineering. Recently, natural fiber materials in place of synthetic material have gained momentum as an emulating soil-reinforcement technique in sustainable geotechnics. However, the natural fibers are innately different from such synthetic material whereas behavior of fiber-reinforced soil is influenced not only by physical-mechanical properties but also by biochemical properties. In the present review, the applicability of natural plant fibers as oriented distributed fiber-reinforced soil (ODFS) and randomly distributed fiber-reinforced soil (RDFS) are extensively discussed and emphasized the inspiration of RDFS based on the emerging trend. Review also attempts to explore the importance of biochemical composition of natural-fibers on the performance in subsoil reinforced conditions. The treatment methods which enhances the behavior and lifetime of fibers, are also presented. While outlining the current potential of fiber reinforcement technology, some key research gaps have been highlighted at their importance. Finally, the review briefly documents the future direction of the fiber reinforcement technology by associating bio-mediated technological line. PMID:29617285

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA. Concluding, so far SA has managed to get a decent productivity over croplands due to the advanced cultivation techniques which likely to be at risk under future warming climate. Also NV areas of SA are in constant threat from the anthropogenic activities and climate changes.

Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to access observation and model datasets, calculate evaluation metrics, and visualize the results. Several other examples of the RCMES capabilities can be found at https://rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov.

Outpatient training in neurology: history and future challenges.

PubMed

Naley, MaryAlice; Elkind, Mitchell S V

2006-01-10

The organization of neurology as a specialty and of neurology training specifically has evolved tremendously over the last 130 years. Originally primarily an outpatient specialty, the focus of training shifted to inpatient neurology in the early 20th century when accreditation of programs required training in newly established inpatient-based neurologic departments. Now and in the near future, the growth of neurologic critical care and the expansion of neurology intensive care units may require even more inpatient responsibilities in neurology residency programs. Contrary to these trends in training, most community neurology practice is still focused on outpatients, and surveys of neurologists have consistently indicated a need for more outpatient exposure in neurology training. This article briefly reviews the history of neurology training, discusses current challenges to outpatient training, and recommends possible solutions for the future.

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE PAGES

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; ...

2017-05-16

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

2009-07-09

The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

A review of electrode materials for electrochemical supercapacitors.

PubMed

Wang, Guoping; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Jiujun

2012-01-21

In this critical review, metal oxides-based materials for electrochemical supercapacitor (ES) electrodes are reviewed in detail together with a brief review of carbon materials and conducting polymers. Their advantages, disadvantages, and performance in ES electrodes are discussed through extensive analysis of the literature, and new trends in material development are also reviewed. Two important future research directions are indicated and summarized, based on results published in the literature: the development of composite and nanostructured ES materials to overcome the major challenge posed by the low energy density of ES (476 references).

Gait recognition based on integral outline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Guan; Fang, Lv

2017-02-01

Biometric identification technology replaces traditional security technology, which has become a trend, and gait recognition also has become a hot spot of research because its feature is difficult to imitate and theft. This paper presents a gait recognition system based on integral outline of human body. The system has three important aspects: the preprocessing of gait image, feature extraction and classification. Finally, using a method of polling to evaluate the performance of the system, and summarizing the problems existing in the gait recognition and the direction of development in the future.

Biosurfactants for Microbubble Preparation and Application

PubMed Central

Xu, Qingyi; Nakajima, Mitsutoshi; Liu, Zengshe; Shiina, Takeo

2011-01-01

Biosurfactants can be classified by their chemical composition and their origin. This review briefly describes various classes of biosurfactants based on their origin and introduces a few of the most widely used biosurfactants. The current status and future trends in biosurfactant production are discussed, with an emphasis on those derived from plants. Following a brief introduction of the properties of microbubbles, recent progress in the application of microbubble technology to molecular imaging, wastewater treatment, and aerobic fermentation are presented. Several studies on the preparation, characterization and applications of biosurfactant-based microbubbles are reviewed. PMID:21339998

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

PubMed

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-09-18

To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ 2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-01-01

Objectives To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016–2020. Methods An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Results Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1–4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016–2020, based on the predictive model. Conclusion Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. PMID:28928178

Man-made Boards Technology Trends based on TRIZ Evolution Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Huiling; Fan, Delin

China is one of the world's largest manufacturers and consumers of man-made board applications. A systematic and efficient method of foreseeing future technology trends and their evolutionary potentials is a key task that can help companies guide their planning and allocate their resources. Application of the law of evolution with a S-shaped curve could contribute essentially to the accuracy of the long-term forecast. This research seeks to determine the current stage and the position on the S-curve of man-made board technology in China on the TRIZ evolution theo ryand introduce a methodology which combines patent analysis and technology life cycle forecasting to find a niche space of man-made technology development in China.

Analysis on the hot spot and trend of the foreign assembly building research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Xiaoqing; Luo, Yanbing

2017-03-01

First of all, the paper analyzes the research on the front of the assembly building in the past 15 years. This article mainly adopts the method of CO word analysis, construct the co word matrix, correlation matrix, and then into a dissimilarity matrix, and on this basis, using factor analysis, cluster analysis and multi scale analysis method to study the structure of prefabricated construction field display. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed, and summarized the current research focus of foreign prefabricated construction mainly concentrated in 7 aspects: embankment construction, wood construction, bridge construction, crane layout, PCM wall and glass system, based on neural network test, energy saving and recycling, and forecast the future trend of development study.

Status of Solid State Lighting Product Development and Future Trends for General Illumination.

PubMed

Katona, Thomas M; Pattison, P Morgan; Paolini, Steve

2016-06-07

After decades of research and development on fabrication of efficient light-emitting diodes (LEDs) throughout the visible spectrum, LED-based lighting has reached unparalleled performance with respect to energy efficiency and has become the light source for virtually all new lighting products being designed today. The development of the core light sources and their subsequent integration into lighting systems continue to present unique challenges and opportunities for product designers. We review these systems and the current development status, as well as provide context for the trends in solid state lighting that are leading to the development of value-added lighting solutions that extend the domain of lighting beyond light generation, into fields as diverse as communications, healthcare, and agricultural production.

Acoustic Techniques for Structural Health Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankenstein, B.; Augustin, J.; Hentschel, D.; Schubert, F.; Köhler, B.; Meyendorf, N.

2008-02-01

Future safety and maintenance strategies for industrial components and vehicles are based on combinations of monitoring systems that are permanently attached to or embedded in the structure, and periodic inspections. The latter belongs to conventional nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and can be enhanced or partially replaced by structural health monitoring systems. However, the main benefit of this technology for the future will consist of systems that can be differently designed based on improved safety philosophies, including continuous monitoring. This approach will increase the efficiency of inspection procedures at reduced inspection times. The Fraunhofer IZFP Dresden Branch has developed network nodes, miniaturized transmitter and receiver systems for active and passive acoustical techniques and sensor systems that can be attached to or embedded into components or structures. These systems have been used to demonstrate intelligent sensor networks for the monitoring of aerospace structures, railway systems, wind energy generators, piping system and other components. Material discontinuities and flaws have been detected and monitored during full scale fatigue testing. This paper will discuss opportunities and future trends in nondestructive evaluation and health monitoring based on new sensor principles and advanced microelectronics. It will outline various application examples of monitoring systems based on acoustic techniques and will indicate further needs for research and development.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura; Brown, Austin; Newes, Emily

The transportation sector is changing, influenced by concurrent, ongoing, dynamic trends that could dramatically affect the future energy landscape, including effects on the potential for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Battery cost reductions and improved performance coupled with a growing number of electric vehicle model offerings are enabling greater battery electric vehicle market penetration, and advances in fuel cell technology and decreases in hydrogen production costs are leading to initial fuel cell vehicle offerings. Radically more efficient vehicles based on both conventional and new drivetrain technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle-mile. Net impacts also depend on the energy sources usedmore » for propulsion, and these are changing with increased use of renewable energy and unconventional fossil fuel resources. Connected and automated vehicles are emerging for personal and freight transportation systems and could increase use of low- or non-emitting technologies and systems; however, the net effects of automation on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. The longstanding trend of an annual increase in transportation demand has reversed for personal vehicle miles traveled in recent years, demonstrating the possibility of lower-travel future scenarios. Finally, advanced biofuel pathways have continued to develop, highlighting low-carbon and in some cases carbon-negative fuel pathways. We discuss the potential for transformative reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions through these emerging transportation-sector technologies and trends and present a Clean Transportation Sector Initiative scenario for such reductions, which are summarized in Table ES-1.« less

Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

PubMed

Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

2018-05-08

In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

Optoelectronics components and technology for optical networking in China: recent progress and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shan; Liu, Shuihua

2004-04-01

Current optical communication systems are more and more relying on the advanced opto-electronic components. A series of revolutionary optical and optoelectronics components technology accounts for the fast progress and field deployment of high-capacity telecommunication and data-transmission systems. Since 1990s, the optical communication industry in China entered a high-speed development period and its wide deployment had already established the solid base for China information infrastructure. In this presentation, the main progress of optoelectronics components and technology in China are reviewed, which includes semiconductor laser diode/photo receiver, fiber optical amplifier, DWDM multiplexer/de-multiplexer, dispersion compensation components and all optical network node components, such as optical switch, OADM, tunable optical filters and variable optical attenuators, etc. Integration discrete components into monolithic/hybrid platform component is an inevitable choice for the consideration of performance, mass production and cost reduction. The current status and the future trends of OEIC and PIC components technology in China will also be discuss mainly on the monolithic integration DFB LD + EA modulator, and planar light-wave circuit (PLC) technology, etc.

Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sadekov, Aleksey; Cheng, Hai; Bosomworth, Matt; Edwards, Lawrence; Matthews, Wendy; Matthews, Roger

2017-02-01

Droughts have had large impacts on past and present societies. High-resolution paleoclimate data are essential to place recent droughts in a meaningful historical context and to predict regional future changes with greater accuracy. Such records, however, are very scarce in the Middle East in general, and the Fertile Crescent in particular. Here we present a 2400 year long speleothem-based multiproxy record from Gejkar Cave in northern Iraq. Oxygen and carbon isotopes and magnesium are faithful recorders of effective moisture. The new Gejkar record not only shows that droughts in 1998-2000 and 2007-2010, which have been argued to be a contributing factor to Syrian civil war, were extreme compared to the current mean climate, but they were also superimposed on a long-term aridification trend that already started around or before 950 C.E. (Common Era). This long-term trend is not captured by tree ring records and climate models, emphasizing the importance of using various paleoclimate proxy data to evaluate and improve climate models and to correctly inform policy makers about future hydroclimatic changes in this drought-prone region.

Cancer Trends in Mexico: Essential Data for the Creation and Follow-Up of Public Policies

PubMed Central

Mohar-Betancourt, Alejandro; Armas-Texta, Daniel; Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Torres-Domínguez, Juan A.

2017-01-01

Purpose Cancer in a country like Mexico is a challenge for the current health system and for public health. However, the statistics about cancer in Mexico are scarce, so epidemiologic surveillance needs to be improved. The objectives of this article were to describe the extent of cancer and to estimate the national burden of cancer through 2020. Materials and Methods To meet this objective, an analysis of secondary official sources was performed. The cancer cases through 2020 were estimated on the basis of trends in mortality and the projection of incident cases reported by GLOBOCAN. Results In 2013, cancer was the cause of 12.84% of all deaths in Mexico. It is projected that the prevalence of cancer will be 904,581 by 2017 and will reach 1,262,861 by early in the next decade (ie, 2020). Conclusion Available data for cancer are incomplete. The development and implementation of population-based cancer registries in Mexico are essential. Assessment of the future outlook of cancer in Mexico will provide awareness of future challenges and can help health systems prepare to face them. PMID:29244991

2010 Fuel Cell Technologies Market Report, June 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report summarizes 2010 data on fuel cells, including market penetration and industry trends. It also covers cost, price, and performance trends, along with policy and market drivers and the future outlook for fuel cells.

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of the Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 80

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of and trends in the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were…

Modernizing Systems and Software: How Evolving Trends in Future Trends in Systems and Software Technology Bode Well for Advancing the Precision of Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-23

of Code Need for increased functionality will be a forcing function to bring the fields of software and systems engineering... of Software-Intensive Systems is Increasing 3 How Evolving Trends in Systems and Software Technologies Bode Well for Advancing the Precision of ...Engineering in Continued Partnership 4 How Evolving Trends in Systems and Software Technologies Bode Well for Advancing the

Escalating burden of breast cancer in southern Thailand: analysis of 1990-2010 incidence and prediction of future trends.

PubMed

Virani, Shama; Sriplung, Hutcha; Rozek, Laura S; Meza, Rafael

2014-06-01

Thailand is undergoing an epidemiologic transition, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases and increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females both in the southern region Thailand and throughout Thailand. However, there is a lack of research on the epidemiology of this and other cancers. Here we use cancer incidence data from the Songkhla Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the incidence of breast cancer in Southern Thailand. We use joinpoint analysis, age-period-cohort models and nordpred analysis to investigate the incidence of breast cancer in Southern Thailand from 1990 to 2010 and project future trends from 2010 to 2029. We found that age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rates in Southern Thailand increased by almost 300% from 1990 to 2010 going from 10.0 to 27.8 cases per 100,000 person-years. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the increase in incidence. Three distinct incidence projection methods consistently suggested that incidence rates will continue to increase in the future with incidence for women age 50 and above increasing at a higher rate than for women below 50. To date, this is the first study to examine Thai breast cancer incidence from a regional registry. This study provides a basis for future planning strategies in breast cancer prevention and to guide hypotheses for population-based epidemiologic research in Thailand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Liver Transplant Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation.

PubMed

Toro-Díaz, Hector; Mayorga, Maria E; Barritt, A Sidney; Orman, Eric S; Wheeler, Stephanie B

2015-08-01

The number of liver transplants (LTs) performed in the US increased until 2006 but has since declined despite an ongoing increase in demand. This decline may be due in part to decreased donor liver quality and increasing discard of poor-quality livers. We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) model informed by current donor characteristics to predict future LT trends through the year 2030. The data source for our model is the United Network for Organ Sharing database, which contains patient-level information on all organ transplants performed in the US. Previous analysis showed that liver discard is increasing and that discarded organs are more often from donors who are older, are obese, have diabetes, and donated after cardiac death. Given that the prevalence of these factors is increasing, the DES model quantifies the reduction in the number of LTs performed through 2030. In addition, the model estimatesthe total number of future donors needed to maintain the current volume of LTs and the effect of a hypothetical scenario of improved reperfusion technology.We also forecast the number of patients on the waiting list and compare this with the estimated number of LTs to illustrate the impact that decreased LTs will have on patients needing transplants. By altering assumptions about the future donor pool, this model can be used to develop policy interventions to prevent a further decline in this lifesaving therapy. To our knowledge, there are no similar predictive models of future LT use based on epidemiological trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting Liver Transplant Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation

PubMed Central

Diaz, Hector Toro; Mayorga, Maria; Barritt, A. Sidney; Orman, Eric S.; Wheeler, Stephanie B.

2014-01-01

The number of liver transplants (LTs) performed in the US increased until 2006, but has since declined despite an ongoing increase in demand. This decline may be due in part to decreased donor liver quality and increasing discard of poor quality livers. We constructed a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model informed by current donor characteristics to predict future LT trends through the year 2030. The data source for our model is the United Network for Organ Sharing database, which contains patient level information on all organ transplants performed in the US. Previous analysis showed that liver discard is increasing and that discarded organs are more often from donors who are older, obese, have diabetes, and donated after cardiac death. Given that the prevalence of these factors is increasing, the DES model quantifies the reduction in the number of LTs performed through 2030. In addition, the model estimates the total number of future donors needed to maintain the current volume of LTs, and the effect of a hypothetical scenario of improved reperfusion technology. We also forecast the number of patients on the waiting list and compare this to the estimated number of LTs to illustrate the impact that decreased LTs will have on patients needing transplants. By altering assumptions about the future donor pool, this model can be used to develop policy interventions to prevent a further decline in this life saving therapy. To our knowledge, there are no similar predictive models of future LT use based on epidemiologic trends. PMID:25391681

Outdoor recreation in American life: a national assessment of demand and supply trends.

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Shela H. Mou; John C. Bergstrom; R. Jeff Teasley; Michael A. Tarrant; John Loomis

1999-01-01

Outdoor Recreation in American Life is the United States' only ongoing, comprehensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply. New and different aspects of national demand, resemblances to the past, and trends in the supply of outdoor recreation opportunities, both from the private and public sectors,...

At Risk of Loss: The Endangered Future of Low-Income Rental Housing Resources. Third Printing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clay, Phillip L.

This report explores the dimensions of the potential loss of low-rent housing, its causes, and the possible solutions. Chapter 1 is an introduction. Chapter 2, "Housing the Poor: Trends and Issues," includes the following sections: (1) "Trends in the Incidence of Poverty"; and (2) "Trends in Low Rent Housing." Chapter…

An Overview of Sixteen Trends...Their Profound Impact on Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marx, Gary

2011-01-01

The "Overview" is a condensation of the full Sixteen Trends book. This abbreviated version provides an economical opportunity to order in bulk and distribute copies to an entire school staff, community groups, or other clients and constituents. The "Overview of Sixteen Trends" is an important tool for raising awareness about the need to scan the…

Converging social trends - emerging outdoor recreation issues

Treesearch

Carl H. Reidel

1980-01-01

I can't recall when I have attended a national conference with a more clearly defined objective than this one. We are here to document outdoor recreation trends and explore their meaning for the future. The word "trend" appears no less than 45 times in the conference brochure, and the symposium organizers are determined that the proceedings will be...

The Future of the Web, Intelligent Devices, and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strauss, Howard

2007-01-01

In this article, the author looks to the past for trends in hardware, software, networking, and education and attempt to extrapolate where they are going and what their broad implications might be. However, there are many different ways that trends can be interpreted, and it is easy to pick trends that support one's thesis and ignore ones that…

Informing management on the future structure of hospital care: an extrapolation of trends in demand and costs in lung diseases.

PubMed

Vogl, Matthias; Leidl, Reiner

2016-05-01

The planning of health care management benefits from understanding future trends in demand and costs. In the case of lung diseases in the national German hospital market, we therefore analyze the current structure of care, and forecast future trends in key process indicators. We use standardized, patient-level, activity-based costing from a national cost calculation data set of respiratory cases, representing 11.9-14.1 % of all cases in the major diagnostic category "respiratory system" from 2006 to 2012. To forecast hospital admissions, length of stay (LOS), and costs, the best adjusted models out of possible autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models are used. The number of cases is predicted to increase substantially, from 1.1 million in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2018 (+2.7 % each year). LOS is expected to decrease from 7.9 to 6.1 days, and overall costs to increase from 2.7 to 4.5 billion euros (+4.3 % each year). Except for lung cancer (-2.3 % each year), costs for all respiratory disease areas increase: surgical interventions +9.2 % each year, COPD +3.9 %, bronchitis and asthma +1.7 %, infections +2.0 %, respiratory failure +2.6 %, and other diagnoses +8.5 % each year. The share of costs of surgical interventions in all costs of respiratory cases increases from 17.8 % in 2006 to 30.8 % in 2018. Overall costs are expected to increase particularly because of an increasing share of expensive surgical interventions and rare diseases, and because of higher intensive care, operating room, and diagnostics and therapy costs.

Recent trends in water analysis triggering future monitoring of organic micropollutants.

PubMed

Schmidt, Torsten C

2018-03-21

Water analysis has been an important area since the beginning of analytical chemistry. The focus though has shifted substantially: from minerals and the main constituents of water in the time of Carl Remigius Fresenius to a multitude of, in particular, organic compounds at concentrations down to the sub-nanogram per liter level nowadays. This was possible only because of numerous innovations in instrumentation in recent decades, drivers of which are briefly discussed. In addition to the high demands on sensitivity, high throughput by automation and short analysis times are major requirements. In this article, some recent developments in the chemical analysis of organic micropollutants (OMPs) are presented. These include the analysis of priority pollutants in whole water samples, extension of the analytical window, in particular to encompass highly polar compounds, the trend toward more than one separation dimension before mass spectrometric detection, and ways of coping with unknown analytes by suspect and nontarget screening approaches involving high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, beyond gathering reliable concentration data for many OMPs, the question of the relevance of such data for the aquatic system under scrutiny is becoming ever more important. To that end, effect-based analytics can be used and may become part of future routine monitoring, mostly with a focus on adverse effects of OMPs in specific test systems mimicking environmental impacts. Despite advances in the field of water analysis in recent years, there are still many challenges for further analytical research. Graphical abstract Recent trends in water analysis of organic micropollutants that open new opportunities in future water monitoring. HRMS high-resolution mass spectrometry, PMOC persistent mobile organic compounds.

Spatiotemporal reference evapotranspiration changes in humid and semi-arid regions of Iran: past trends and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nouri, Milad; Homaee, Mehdi; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-06-01

This study was undertaken to investigate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) changes in semi-arid and humid regions of Iran during the past (1966-2010) and future (2011-2099). For detecting possible trend in ET0 over 1966-2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test was employed. The outputs of Hadley Centre coupled model version 3 (HadCM3) and the third generation couple global climate model (CGCM3) under A2, B2, and A1B emission scenarios were also used to simulate the future ET0 changes by statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicated upward trends in annual ET0 during 1966-2010 in the most sites. Furthermore, the significant increasing ET0 trends were identified for 54.5, 18.2, 27.3, 22.7, and 36.3% of studied locations during winter, spring, summer, autumn, and entire year, respectively. Positive trends in ET0 were mostly found in northeast, west, and northwest Iran, and insignificant downward ET0 trends were primarily detected in southwestern and southern stations in 1966-2010. The ET0 changes were attributed to wind speed changes in semi-arid regions and mean temperature changes in humid areas in the past period. An increase in ET0 was projected under all scenarios due mainly to temperature rise and declined relative humidity in the investigated regions from 2011 to 2100. Averaged over all stations, the lowest and highest ET0 increment were, respectively, modeled for autumn and summer using CGCM3 outputs and winter and autumn using HadCM3 outputs. Given significant ET0 increase over the twenty-first century, appropriate adaptive measures are required to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productions.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Do Secular Trends in Skeletal Maturity Occur Equally in Both Sexes?

PubMed

Duren, Dana L; Nahhas, Ramzi W; Sherwood, Richard J

2015-08-01

Skeletal maturity assessment provides information on a child's physical development and expectations based on chronological age. Given recently recognized trends for earlier maturity in a variety of systems, most notably puberty, examination of sex-specific secular trends in skeletal maturation is important. For the orthopaedist, recent trends and changes in developmental timing can affect clinical management (eg, treatment timing) if they are currently based on outdated sources. (1) Has the male or female pediatric skeleton experienced a secular trend for earlier maturation over the past 80 years? (2) Do all indicators of maturity trend in the same direction (earlier versus later)? In this retrospective study, a total of 1240 children were examined longitudinally through hand-wrist radiographs for skeletal maturity based on the Fels method. All subjects participate in the Fels Longitudinal Study based in Ohio and were born between 1930 and 1964 for the "early" cohort and between 1965 and 2001 for the "recent" cohort. Sex-specific secular trends were estimated for (1) mean relative skeletal maturity through linear mixed models; and (2) median age of maturation for individual maturity indicators through logistic regression and generalized estimating equations. Overall relative skeletal maturity was significantly advanced in the recent cohort (maximum difference of 5 months at age 13 years for girls, 4 months at age 15 years for boys). For individual maturity indicators, the direction and magnitude of secular trends varied by indicator type and sex. The following statistically significant secular trends were found: (1) earlier maturation of indicators of fusion in both sexes (4 months for girls, 3 months for boys); (2) later maturation of indicators of projection in long bones in both sexes (3 months for girls, 2 months for boys); (3) earlier maturation of indicators of density (4 months) and projection (3 months) in carpals and density in long bones (6 months), for girls only; and (4) later maturation of indicators of long bone shape (3 months) for boys only. A secular trend has occurred in the tempo of maturation of individual components of the pediatric skeleton, and it has occurred in a sex-specific manner. The mosaic nature of this trend, with both earlier and later maturation of individual components of the skeletal age phenotype, calls for greater attention to specific aspects of maturation in addition to the overall skeletal age estimate. The Fels method is currently the most robust method for capturing these components, and future work by our group will deliver an updated, user-friendly version of the Fels assessment tool. Appreciation of sex-specific secular changes in maturation is important for clinical management, including treatment timing, of orthopaedic patients, because children today exhibit a different pattern of maturation than children on whom original maturity assessments were based (including Fels and Greulich-Pyle).

Fluorescence lifetime based bioassays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer-Almes, Franz-Josef

2017-12-01

Fluorescence lifetime (FLT) is a robust intrinsic property and material constant of fluorescent matter. Measuring this important physical indicator has evolved from a laboratory curiosity to a powerful and established technique for a variety of applications in drug discovery, medical diagnostics and basic biological research. This distinct trend was mainly driven by improved and meanwhile affordable laser and detection instrumentation on the one hand, and the development of suitable FLT probes and biological assays on the other. In this process two essential working approaches emerged. The first one is primarily focused on high throughput applications employing biochemical in vitro assays with no requirement for high spatial resolution. The second even more dynamic trend is the significant expansion of assay methods combining highly time and spatially resolved fluorescence data by fluorescence lifetime imaging. The latter approach is currently pursued to enable not only the investigation of immortal tumor cell lines, but also specific tissues or even organs in living animals. This review tries to give an actual overview about the current status of FLT based bioassays and the wide range of application opportunities in biomedical and life science areas. In addition, future trends of FLT technologies will be discussed.

Hip fracture incidence 2003-2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study.

PubMed

Concin, Hans; Brozek, Wolfgang; Benedetto, Karl-Peter; Häfele, Hartmut; Kopf, Joachim; Bärenzung, Thomas; Schnetzer, Richard; Schenk, Christian; Stimpfl, Elmar; Waheed-Hutter, Ursula; Ulmer, Hanno; Rapp, Kilian; Zwettler, Elisabeth; Nagel, Gabriele

2016-12-01

Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle: Swinging between globalization and regionalization of medical education in Japan.

PubMed

Saiki, Takuya; Imafuku, Rintaro; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Ban, Nobutaro

2017-10-01

Japan is well known as a super-aging society, with a low birth rate, and has been ranked as one of the countries having the highest quality of healthcare system. Japan's society is currently approaching a major turning point with regard to societal and healthcare reforms, which are influenced by international trends and regional needs. Development of Japanese healthcare human resources, including medical students, is now expected to ride the wave of globalization, while resolving regional problems in the training and delivery of healthcare. Terms and global trends in medical education, such as outcome-based education, community-based education, reflective learning, international accreditation of medical education, and professionalization of educators are well translated into the Japanese language and embraced positively among the Japanese medical educators. However, these trends occasionally sit uncomfortably with cultural variations that are often a common approach in Japan; notably, "hansei" (introspection) and "kaizen" (change for the better). In the world facing a new era where people are unsettled between globalism and regionalism, Japan's future mission is to steer a balanced route that recognizes both global and regional influences and produce global health professionals educators.

Does Demand for Breast Augmentation Reflect National Financial Trends?

PubMed

Kearney, L; Dolan, R T; Clover, A J; Kelly, E J; O'Broin, E; O'Shaughnessy, M; O'Sullivan, S T

2017-04-01

Aesthetic plastic surgery is a consumer-driven industry, subject to influence by financial forces. A changing economic environment may thus impact on the demand for surgery. The aim of this study was to explore trends in demand for bilateral breast augmentation (BBA) in consecutively presenting patients over an 11-year period and to examine if a correlation exists between these trends and changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a key economic indicator. This study revealed a correlation between annual number of breast augmentation procedures performed and GDP values (r 2  = 0.34, p value = 0.059). Additionally, predicted number of BBA procedures, based on predicted GDP growth in Ireland, strongly correlated with actual number of BBA performed (r 2  = 0.93, p value = 0.000001). Predicted GDP growth can potentially forecast future demand for BBA in our cohort allowing plastic surgeons to modify their practice accordingly. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

Trend Patterns of Vegetative Coverage and Their Underlying Causes in the Deserts of Northwest China over 1982 – 2008

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tianyi; Wang, Hesong

2015-01-01

We identified the spatiotemporal patterns of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the years 1982–2008 in the desert areas of Northwest China and quantified the impacts of climate and non-climate factors on NDVI changes. The results indicate that although the mean NDVI has improved in 24.7% of the study region; 16.3% among the region has been stagnating in recent years and only 8.4% had a significantly increasing trend. Additionally, 45.3% of the region has maintained a stable trend over the study period and 30.0% has declined. A multiple regression model suggests that a wetter climate (quantified by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) is associated with higher NDVI in most areas (18.1% of significance) but these historical changes in PDSI only caused an average improvement of approximately 0.4% over the study region. Contrasting the regression results under different trend patterns, no significant differences in PDSI impacts were detected among the four trend patterns. Therefore, we conclude that climate is not the primary driver for vegetative coverage in Northwest China. Future studies will be required to identify the impacts of specific non-climatic factors on vegetative coverage based on high-resolution data, which will be beneficial in creating an effective strategy to combat the recent desertification trend in China. PMID:25961563

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

The 2015 Long-term Budget Outlook

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

The degree of variation in the four factors was based on their past variation as well as on possible future developments. For instance, during...years, noninterest spending has been well above that average, both because of underlying trends and because of tempo - rary circumstances (namely, the...OUTLOOK 65Figure 5-2. Revenues, by Source, 1965 to 2014 Over the past 50 years, total revenues averaged 17.4 percent of GDP; most of the variation

Prescriptions, Nonmedical Use, and Emergency Department Visits Involving Prescription Stimulants

PubMed Central

Chen, Lian-Yu; Crum, Rosa M.; Strain, Eric C.; CalebAlexander, G.; Kaufmann, Christopher; Mojtabai, Ramin

2018-01-01

Objective Little is known regarding the temporal trends in prescription, nonmedical use and emergency department (ED) visits involving prescription stimulants in the United States. We aimed to examine the three national trends involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamin (Adderall) and methylphenidate in adults and adolescents. Method Three national surveys conducted between 2006-2011 were used: National Disease and Therapeutic Index (NDTI), a survey of office-based practices, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), a population survey of substance use, and Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN), a survey of ED visits. Ordinary least square regression was used to examine temporal changes over time and the associations between these three trends. Results In adolescents, treatment visits involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamine and methylphenidate decreased over time; nonmedical dextroamphetamine-amphetamine use remained stable while nonmedical methylphenidate use declined by 54.4% in 6 years. ED visits involving either medication remained stable. In adults, treatment visits involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamine remained unchanged while nonmedical use went up by 67% and ED visits went up by 156%. These three trends involving methylphenidate remained unchanged. The major source for both medications was a friend or relative across age groups; two-thirds of these friends/relatives had obtained the medication from a physician. Conclusions Trends of prescriptions for stimulants do not correspond to trends in reports of nonmedical use and ED visits. Increased nonmedical stimulant use may not be simply attributed to increased prescribing trends. Future studies should focus on deeper understanding of the proportion, risk factors and motivations for drug diversions. PMID:26890573

Deep Learning for Brain MRI Segmentation: State of the Art and Future Directions.

PubMed

Akkus, Zeynettin; Galimzianova, Alfiia; Hoogi, Assaf; Rubin, Daniel L; Erickson, Bradley J

2017-08-01

Quantitative analysis of brain MRI is routine for many neurological diseases and conditions and relies on accurate segmentation of structures of interest. Deep learning-based segmentation approaches for brain MRI are gaining interest due to their self-learning and generalization ability over large amounts of data. As the deep learning architectures are becoming more mature, they gradually outperform previous state-of-the-art classical machine learning algorithms. This review aims to provide an overview of current deep learning-based segmentation approaches for quantitative brain MRI. First we review the current deep learning architectures used for segmentation of anatomical brain structures and brain lesions. Next, the performance, speed, and properties of deep learning approaches are summarized and discussed. Finally, we provide a critical assessment of the current state and identify likely future developments and trends.

Quantifying carbon budget and nitrous oxide emissions of terrestrial ecosystems in the Eurasian Arctic and the Dry Latitudinal Belt of Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Q.; Yu, T.; Qu, Y.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Melillo, J. M.; Sokolov, A. P.; Reilly, J. M.; Monier, E.

2017-12-01

The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes has occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and is projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect the fate of the large reservoir of organic matter stored in the region. Given a large amount of carbon-based gases CO2 and CH4 is exchanged between the atmosphere and land ecosystems, we hypothesize that the emissions of another potent greenhouse gas N2O are not small. This study used a process-based biogeochemistry model to estimate soil N2O emissions in Northern Eurasia for the latter half of the 20th century and the 21st century. We find that, in the latter half of the 20th century, there was a slight decreasing trend for the regional N2O emissions from 1.4 Tg N yr-1 to 1.17 Tg N yr-1. Boreal forests are the largest source due to their large area and high flux density. Two contrasting climate scenarios with no-policy and policy for future greenhouse gas emissions and with different climate sensitivities (high, medium and low) of a global climate model are used to drive the biogeochemistry model for the 21st century. Simulations indicate that there will be an increasing trend of N2O emissions under the no-policy climate scenario. By 2100, the emissions are 1.28, 1.40 and 1.73 Tg N yr-1 under climate conditions projected considering low, intermediate, and high level of climate sensitivity, respectively. In contrast, under the policy climate scenarios, there will be a decreasing trend and the emissions are 0.89, 1.02, and 1.06 Tg N yr-1 by 2100, respectively. This study suggests that the large increase of air temperature will enhance regional N2O emissions. Future changes in precipitation and depleting organic nitrogen pools also play a role in affecting future emission strengths in Northern Eurasia. In this presentation, we will also present ensemble simulations of carbon budget for the Dry Latitudinal Belt of Northern Eurasia under various future climate conditions.

Multigenerational Family Households: Recent Trends and Implications for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mindel, Charles H.

1979-01-01

This paper concerns elderly individuals who share households with kin. Examines historical trends in multigenerational households. In spite of the decline, the multigenerational household is still viable for approximately 2,000,000 persons. (Author)

Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trendsmore » and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

The Relationship of Housing and Population Health: A 30-Year Retrospective Analysis

PubMed Central

Jacobs, David E.; Wilson, Jonathan; Dixon, Sherry L.; Smith, Janet; Evens, Anne

2009-01-01

Objective We analyzed the relationship between health status and housing quality over time. Methods We combined data from two nationally representative longitudinal surveys of the U.S. population and its housing, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the American Housing Survey, respectively. We identified housing and health trends from approximately 1970 to 2000, after excluding those trends for which data were missing or where we found no plausible association or change in trend. Results Changes in housing include construction type, proportion of rental versus home ownership, age, density, size, moisture, pests, broken windows, ventilation and air conditioning, and water leaks. Changes in health measures include asthma, respiratory illness, obesity and diabetes, and lead poisoning, among others. The results suggest ecologic trends in childhood lead poisoning follow housing age, water leaks, and ventilation; asthma follows ventilation, windows, and age; overweight trends follow ventilation; blood pressure trends follow community measures; and health disparities have not changed greatly. Conclusions Housing trends are consistent with certain health trends over time. Future national longitudinal surveys should include health, housing, and community metrics within a single integrated design, instead of separate surveys, in order to develop reliable indicators of how housing changes affect population health and how to best target resources. Little progress has been made in reducing the health and housing disparities of disadvantaged groups, with the notable exception of childhood lead poisoning caused by exposure to lead-based paint hazards. Use of these and other data sets to create reliable integrated indicators of health and housing quality are needed. PMID:19440499

Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included both plan trend and conservation "futures" projected to 2030. Scena...

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

The Next Twenty-Five Years: It's Time to Plan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jugenheimer, Donald W.

There is a need in the advertising industry for prediction--of the future in general, of the new communication technology, and of the implications for advertising. Studies of the future in other disciplines have identified at least four separate future trends relevant to prediction and preparation for the future in advertising: within specified…

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Power Systems of the Future, a thought leadership report from the 21st Century Power Partnership, explores these pathways explores actions that policymakers and regulators can take to encourage desired power system outcomes.

International Conference on Aerospace Trends...2001 - From Aeroplane to Aerospace Plane, Thiruvananthapuram, India, June 27, 28, 1991, Proceedings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-08-01

Consideration is given to operational characteristics of future launch vehicles, trends in propulsion technology, technology challenges in the development of cryogenic propulsion systems for future reusable space-launch vehicles, estimation of the overall drag coefficient of an aerospace plane, and self-reliance in aerospace structures. Attention is also given to basic design concepts for smart actuators for aerospace plane control, a software package for the preliminary design of a helicopter, and multiconstraint wing optimization.

Political economies and environmental futures for the sharing economy.

PubMed

Frenken, Koen

2017-06-13

The sudden rise of the sharing economy has sparked an intense public debate about its definition, its effects and its future regulation. Here, I attempt to provide analytical guidance by defining the sharing economy as the practice that consumers grant each other temporary access to their under-utilized physical assets. Using this definition, the rise of the sharing economy can be understood as occurring at the intersection of three salient economic trends: peer-to-peer exchange, access over ownership and circular business models. I shortly discuss some of the environmental impacts of online sharing platforms and then articulate three possible futures of the sharing economy: a capitalist future cumulating in monopolistic super-platforms allowing for seamless services, a state-led future that shifts taxation from labour to capital and redistributes the gains of sharing from winners to losers, and a citizen-led future based on cooperatively owned platforms under democratic control. The nature and size of the social and environmental impacts are expected to differ greatly in each of the three scenarios.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Authors.

Political economies and environmental futures for the sharing economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frenken, Koen

2017-05-01

The sudden rise of the sharing economy has sparked an intense public debate about its definition, its effects and its future regulation. Here, I attempt to provide analytical guidance by defining the sharing economy as the practice that consumers grant each other temporary access to their under-utilized physical assets. Using this definition, the rise of the sharing economy can be understood as occurring at the intersection of three salient economic trends: peer-to-peer exchange, access over ownership and circular business models. I shortly discuss some of the environmental impacts of online sharing platforms and then articulate three possible futures of the sharing economy: a capitalist future cumulating in monopolistic super-platforms allowing for seamless services, a state-led future that shifts taxation from labour to capital and redistributes the gains of sharing from winners to losers, and a citizen-led future based on cooperatively owned platforms under democratic control. The nature and size of the social and environmental impacts are expected to differ greatly in each of the three scenarios. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Political economies and environmental futures for the sharing economy

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The sudden rise of the sharing economy has sparked an intense public debate about its definition, its effects and its future regulation. Here, I attempt to provide analytical guidance by defining the sharing economy as the practice that consumers grant each other temporary access to their under-utilized physical assets. Using this definition, the rise of the sharing economy can be understood as occurring at the intersection of three salient economic trends: peer-to-peer exchange, access over ownership and circular business models. I shortly discuss some of the environmental impacts of online sharing platforms and then articulate three possible futures of the sharing economy: a capitalist future cumulating in monopolistic super-platforms allowing for seamless services, a state-led future that shifts taxation from labour to capital and redistributes the gains of sharing from winners to losers, and a citizen-led future based on cooperatively owned platforms under democratic control. The nature and size of the social and environmental impacts are expected to differ greatly in each of the three scenarios. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’. PMID:28461431

Anthropogenic activities and coastal environmental quality: a regional quantitative analysis in southeast China with management implications.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Liu, Yan; Huang, Dongren; Ke, Hongwei; Chen, Huorong; Zhang, Songbin; Yang, Shengyun; Cai, Minggang

2018-02-01

Regional analysis of environmental issues has always been a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. Because the different levels of economic growth, urbanization, resource endowments, etc. in different regions generate apparently different ecological responses, a better description and comparison across different regions will provide more valuable implications for ecological improvement and policymaking. In this study, seven typical bays in southeast China that are a rapid developing area were selected to quantitatively analyze the relationship between socioeconomic development and coastal environmental quality. Based on the water quality data from 2007 to 2015, the multivariate statistical method was applied to analyze the potential environmental risks and to classify the seven bays based on their environmental quality status. The possible variation trends of environmental indices were predicted based on the cross-regional panel data by Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results showed that there were significant regional differences among the seven bays, especially Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Luoyuan Bays, suffered from severer artificial disturbances than other bays, despite their different development patterns. Socioeconomic development level was significantly associated with some water quality indices (pH, DIN, PO 4 -P); the association was roughly positive: the areas with higher GDP per capita have some worse water quality indices. In addition, the decreasing trend of pH values and the increasing trend of nutrient concentration in the seven bays will continue in the foreseeable future. In consideration of the variation trends, the limiting nutrient strategy should be implemented to mitigate the deterioration of the coastal environments.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Outdoor recreation trends and futures: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell

2012-01-01

This publication presents a national study of outdoor recreation trends as part of the Renewable Resources Planning Act Assessment by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The objectives are to review past trends in outdoor recreation participation by Americans, to describe in detail current outdoor recreation participation patterns, and to compare...

Trends in key economic and social indicators for Pacific Northwest states and counties.

Treesearch

Terry L. Raettig

1999-01-01

Local (county) variations in key social and economic indicators are important in Oregon and Washington. Covered employment, wage and salary, unemployment, and population data for 1987 through 1997 showed regional trends in these indicators, which are compared with national trends. Future updates will be published in the “Production, Prices, Employment, and Trade in...

Hospital information management system: an evolutionary knowledge management perspective.

PubMed

Wadhwa, S; Saxena, Avneet; Wadhwa, Bharat

2007-01-01

The evolving paradigm shift resulting from IT, social and technological changes has created a need for developing an innovative knowledge-based healthcare system, which can effectively meet global healthcare system demands and also cater to future trends. The Hospital Information Management System (HIMS) is developed with this sole aim in mind, which helps in processing and management of hospital information not only inside the boundary, but also beyond the hospital boundary, e.g., telemedicine or e-healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to present such kind of functional HIMS, which can efficiently satisfy the current and future system requirements by using Knowledge Management (KM) and data management systems. The HIMS is developed in a KM context, wherein users can share and use the knowledge more effectively. The proposed system is fully compatible with future technical, social, managerial and economical requirements.